MHJ - Michael Hill International.

[sb9]

Big wall at 1.50, will that be broken today...

[Waltzing]

Should bump up and down a bit hopefully....

a Buy at 140..... 140.... ..... .. .. . :mad ;:

[sb9]

1.50, looking solid ahead of results in couple of weeks time. Definitely diamond among retail stocks for now...

[Waltzing]

looks like any increase in performance is built in and increase in DIV.

or is it? If it beats the street it may even go higher!!!

astonishing...

[Sideshow Bob]

Not a good look....

Gambling funded by cash, jewellery theft | Otago Daily Times Online News (odt.co.nz) (https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/gambling-funded-cash-jewellery-theft)

[kiora]

But he still doesn't have to pay it all back.
Why not ?

[nztx]

But he still doesn't have to pay it all back.
Why not ?

Does insurance cover this sort of thing ? ;)


quite an extensive and increasing list of these sort of light fingered
overpaid scumbags too :)

$50K could have been worse and is mild compared to what some of
the dishonest scumbags caught have taken off with .. ;)

[Beau]

But he still doesn't have to pay it all back.
Why not ?
Because the jewellery was worked out on full retail but was the actual price was %50 discount :p

[nztx]

Because the jewellery was worked out on full retail but was the actual price was %50 discount :p


a further fringe benefit on top of the Beak's frequent flyer admission discount ? ;)

[percy]

How good would MHJ's share price be if they increased their on line sales by 37.2% representing 40.6% of total sales as did Shaver Shop Group.?
yes I hold SSG.

[Waltzing]

SHAVER GROUP?

well from a purely B&M perspective yes but really its just MHJ.

lets not get carried away here....

[winner69]

Statutory net profit after tax was $37.1m (FY21H1: $37.6m)

Rawz - $37m a bit better than my guess of $36m - but as I thought NPAT down on last year

[winner69]

This is a good sign -

In the first eight weeks of FY22H2 Group all store sales were up +14% (even though same store sales were flat)

[winner69]

This Comparable Profit thingie they use --- I suppose we need to trust them that its all kosher

[Rawz]

Statutory net profit after tax was $37.1m (FY21H1: $37.6m)

Rawz - $37m a bit better than my guess of $36m - but as I thought NPAT down on last year

You're too good master Winner

[Waltzing]

Its Banked already. Thanks MHJ.

[Rawz]

Its Banked already. Thanks MHJ.

Yes a big thank you. Great gains and moved to financials/construction sector earlier this year.

MHJ still looking like a great hold which is why i still have a sliver of shares

[Waltzing]

Key Financial Results•
Group comparable EBIT increased by 15.5% to $51.6m (FY21H1: $44.6m, FY20H1: $31.6m).
• Statutory net profit after tax was $37.1m (FY21H1: $37.6m).
• Group same store sales were up 11.4% to $306.5m (FY21H1: $275.0m).
• Operating revenues increased by 2.3% to $327.1m (FY21H1: $319.9m), despite losing ~20% of store trading days.
• Gross margin increased by 240 bps to 65.1% (FY21H1: 62.7%, FY20H1: 61.7%).
• Strong working capital management resulted in a closing net cash position of $99.1m (FY21H1: $90.3m).
• Agile inventory management with stable and reliable supply chain arrangements delivered a healthy closing balance of $175.8m (FY21H1: $170.6m).
• Interim dividend payment of AU3.5 cents per share, unfranked and fully imputed with conduit foreign income.

might be a bit of share trade in there still.

"despite losing ~20% of store trading days"

really would like to see some refinements in financial presentations.

Reports will soon be interactive META VERSE presentations where you can ask the AVATARS questions ...

GA GA .... GA GA

right, off testing, fine weather.

[sb9]

An eye watering COH of $99ml. And they're paying interim divvy of 3.5c which is higher than FY21 final of 3c. On that basis we could expect final for FY22 to be at least 5c or more.
They're all in paid AUD, even better with falling NZD..

[Rawz]

An eye watering COH of $99ml. And they're paying interim divvy of 3.5c which is higher than FY21 final of 3c. On that basis we could expect final for FY22 to be at least 5c or more.
They're all in paid AUD, even better with falling NZD..

What on earth are they doing with all that cash??? Maybe lining up an acquisition. Scary

[sb9]

What on earth are they doing with all that cash??? Maybe lining up an acquisition. Scary

May be keeping it for rainy day and cushion any future Covid like scenarios.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

An eye watering COH of $99ml. And they're paying interim divvy of 3.5c which is higher than FY21 final of 3c. On that basis we could expect final for FY22 to be at least 5c or more.
They're all in paid AUD, even better with falling NZD..

Uhhh - this means MHJ has an Enterprise value of around $475m - meaning EV/earnings ratio approaching 5x….?

What am I missing here? How is this so crazy cheap??

Also:


New Territories & Services


With the transformation program now well established in the business, the opportunity to stretch the brand into new territories, markets and services is now being explored.
….

[winner69]

What on earth are they doing with all that cash??? Maybe lining up an acquisition. Scary

Could pay back the zillions of corporate welfare ..... obviously wasn't need;)

[Rawz]

Could pay back the zillions of corporate welfare ..... obviously wasn't need;)

Shhhh, you are outrageous. Some stuff.co.nz reporter could read this thread and make a big hoohaa about it. We dont talk about these things okay its gone unnoticed quite nicely :)

[winner69]

Uhhh - this means MHJ has an Enterprise value of around $475m - meaning EV/earnings ratio approaching 5x….?

What am I missing here? How is this so crazy cheap??

Also:

The billion dollar question eh

Hope you buying big time LEK

[LaserEyeKiwi]

The billion dollar question eh

Hope you buying big time LEK

going to listen to the earning call which starts in 20 minutes, will decide then whether to start buying.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

The answers to analysts questions on the earnings call is somewhat more pessimistic on H2 than the outlook in the earnings release painted. A lot of headwinds to gross margins with many increases in costs (higher gold prices, weaker OZ dollar, lack of rental relief, increase in wage costs etc)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Acquisitions in the $50 million range under consideration.

[Rawz]

Acquisitions in the $50 million range under consideration.

told ya.. maybe another usa play

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Capital review still underway - company not opposed to taking on debt in a capital management strategy post-covid (presumably a reference to a future capital return possibility of some sort)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

told ya.. maybe another usa play

UK maybe if they after a similar culture fit to NZ/OZ/CAN?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Ok so yes I’m now in with a holding.

[sb9]

Thanks for the updates LEK, couldn't join the call due to other commitments.

[Waltzing]

"Ok so yes I’m now in with a holding."

gosh... SP flat...

oh no not again...

maybe want to use the tax credits...

they better have a better idea then last time.. that almost a reason to sell ...

[Waltzing]

They should have declared a special DIV and returned any surplus to shareholders... its a SELL

what a shocker decision...

[Rawz]

They should have declared a special DIV and returned any surplus to shareholders... its a SELL

what a shocker decision...

Thats boring thou Waltz. And MHJ is not a boring stock!!

Lets see what $50m can do in USA or Europe. Wont need much after that- maybe $5m a year top up?

[Waltzing]

Its Boring!!!

Ok stand corrected you all want MORE EXCITEMENT or MORE RISK and MORE STRESS!!!

well heres the local take!!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127859151/michael-hill-says-covid19-lockdowns-hurt-firsthalf-trading-warns-of-omicron-impact

You guy are go getters for F and R, FUN and RISK!

Kiwis are adventures!

Flightless also but hey..

No wonder the foil designer for the US last year said , "Kiwis are relentless"

Actually the Kiwi team was really an international team also.

But the flight control team on board were local.

Pretty boring summer this one....just a bug about..

[winner69]

Intuitively this doesn't read quite right ......I don't always get the lingo they use ......but as long as total sales were up 14% it's all hunky dory

In the first eight weeks of FY22H2:
• Group same stores sales were flat
• Group all stores sales were up +14%

If same stores were flat the other stores must be heaps more than 14% up to get total up to 14%?

good that sales up 14% when H1 sales were only up 2%

[clearasmud]

Intuitively this doesn't read quite right ......I don't always get the lingo they use ......but as long as total sales were up 14% it's all hunky dory

In the first eight weeks of FY22H2:
• Group same stores sales were flat
• Group all stores sales were up +14%

If same stores were flat the other stores must be heaps more than 14% up to get total up to 14%?

good that sales up 14% when H1 sales were only up 2%
We can expect another 3.5c for the second half if they decide to pay out 50%.
Profit could be around $55 for the year, most of the gains from sorting out Canada.
Wonder why it took them so long to fix Canada?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

They should have declared a special DIV and returned any surplus to shareholders... its a SELL

what a shocker decision...

Capital review is still in progress, and stated they have no aversion to taking on debt in any capital return.

[sb9]

We can expect another 3.5c for the second half if they decide to pay out 50%.
Profit could be around $55 for the year, most of the gains from sorting out Canada.
Wonder why it took them so long to fix Canada?

My pick for final to be at least 5c.

[Waltzing]

someone should have stood up and shouted...

SHOW US THE MONEY...

DIV up , Cough up ...

sp already priced in at 5 W(n) ?

[winner69]

Suppose Lovisa a bit expensive to acquire?

[Waltzing]

Oh for goodness sake W(n)...

it was a very serious question...

now what if the next 2 DIV hit 5 and above?

might be cheap

depend of these same store sales and where they are....

No data, no DOT PLOT...

cant connect the DOTS!!!

They know the (profit-loss) of every store and we dont...

its all a gamble ... russian roulette !!!

[Waltzing]

Winner (n)

Canada == Profitable

13556

[Halebop]

Intuitively this doesn't read quite right ......I don't always get the lingo they use ......but as long as total sales were up 14% it's all hunky dory

In the first eight weeks of FY22H2:
• Group same stores sales were flat
• Group all stores sales were up +14%

If same stores were flat the other stores must be heaps more than 14% up to get total up to 14%?

good that sales up 14% when H1 sales were only up 2%

Same store sales are on like for like basis including trading days, so sales can be up with like for like flat just by having less lock down days / more store trading days which don’t register in the like for like calculation.

Looking forward am assuming people on average will still be a little nervous of travel and this type of discretionary / experience substitution retail could still have a good next year as revenue will likely reflect more store trading days.

More concerned about the capital. I think there is 30 cents too much sitting on the balance sheet so requires a value adding acquisition (a small closed shoe chain in NZ and a small closed jewellery chain in USA is my only memory of this for MHJ) or a return of capital in whatever form; buy back, capital distribution, dividends.

[Waltzing]

They dont seem to want to do a lolly scramble..

They seem to think they are a global operation.....

Lolly Scramble is the best option unless they have some undervalued take over that is just a no brainer...

These guys dont have a buy and integrate record like EBOS..

[Halebop]

Yeah, organisations that work out Programmatic smaller company acquisition strategies are more reliable, one off or occasional medium and large acquisitions are a crap shoot

[Waltzing]

"one off or occasional medium and large acquisitions are a crap shoot"

classic, YES right that !

[Waltzing]

MHJ not moving much today...

[dreamcatcher]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/michael-hill-profit-flat-amid-store-closures-but-ebit-climbed-15/UU3GCGPLWAE4BQVW4CGCKMYV64/

[Waltzing]

9 million more hoarded in cash .... special DIV is required surely.

market doesn't look happy..

the NZ AUS performance being re priced?

could see 1.10 - 1.20 and that would be a buy again at 1.10

[LaserEyeKiwi]

9 million more hoarded in cash .... special DIV is required surely.

market doesn't look happy..

the NZ AUS performance being re priced?

could see 1.10 - 1.20 and that would be a buy again at 1.10

ASX tanking, pulling down dual listed stocks somewhat in its wake

[Waltzing]

HLG is up LEK!!

Some buying oppos coming up.

[Grimy]

No customers at MHJ in Lynn mall the couple of times I walked passed today.
None in Hallensteins either. Lucky they have good on-line sales.

[Waltzing]

yep the kiwi has gone bush ...except in small rural towns and the beaches ..

sunning it at the Home HUT on the deck then beside the pools ...

[percy]

yep the kiwi has gone bush ...except in small rural towns and the beaches ..

sunning it at the Home HUT on the deck then beside the pools ...

pssssssssst.
Read LOV's result.Link on LOV thread..
World is busy shopping with them............Enjoy..............lol

[Waltzing]

Percy please stay on the LOVE thread....stop showing off... remember SKL...but LOV has returned amazing returns.

yes they had a lovely sell off recently but travel stock were on the buy list.

The product is of no interest but the stock is doing well..

LOV need that result.

MHJ can get away with a lot less, LOV'EE cant.

[dreamcatcher]

pssssssssst.
Read LOV's result.Link on LOV thread..
World is busy shopping with them............Enjoy..............lol


Cost Mar20 $3.21 part-sold Oct21 $21.50 probably hold balance

Buy when fear is greatest..........

[percy]

Cost Mar20 $3.21 part-sold Oct21 $21.50 probably hold balance

Buy when fear is greatest..........

Well done........................

[dreamcatcher]

No customers at MHJ in Lynn mall the couple of times I walked passed today.
None in Hallensteins either. Lucky they have good on-line sales.

Lost interest in MHJ after a gold chain comparison at New Lynn 30yrs ago

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Lost interest in MHJ after a gold chain comparison at New Lynn 30yrs ago

Stone the crows I better sell my holding after hearing your 30 year old anecdote!

ha ha just kidding, but to be honest I have aero interest in Jewelry and just let the wifey tell me what to buy her in that department.

[Waltzing]

LEK your a no panic merchant..with all the info going round in the next few weeks with OMI numbers reported as 4 times higher than reported the market might just get spooked and some good prices turn up..

[LaserEyeKiwi]

LEK your a no panic merchant..with all the info going round in the next few weeks with OMI numbers reported as 4 times higher than reported the market might just get spooked and some good prices turn up..

Indeed - I have been waiting for peak CV panic to finally hit - I was also expecting much more widespread store closures due to staffing isolation issues (but todays move to phase 3 and it’s change to isolation requirements may prevent that). Although combined with tonight’s WAR selloff, who knows how low we go tomorrow.

[Waltzing]

as NASA says

Go Kiwi in the Blind...

light will emerge ... sometimes its a dark winter first ..

wait its still a fabulous Autumn about to dawn...

[Snoopy]

to be honest I have aero interest in Jewelry


I have similar taste in such baubles: 'Plane' and simple ;-)

SNOOPY

[Waltzing]

Nothing better than some Celtic ART...

of course MHJ does not have any craftsmen and women knocking out this style..

DOW hardly moved in the end over night.

Yesterday might have been the day for NZX stocks after AUSSI sell off.

Tech NAS up!!

[winner69]

So Michael Hill ha $100m in the bank and spent heaps of time the other day discussing what to do with it

Growth and more growth seems an exciting prospect....new markets, new channels and new service propositions blah blah and not forgetting the digital eco-system and best of all let's spend $50m on acquiring something.

Growth and even more doesn't seem to be part of the Michael Hill DNA if 1% pa growth over the last 8 years is anything to go by

Just give most of the $100m back to shareholders might be best bet -- the old saying 'cash burns a hole in your pocket' might be a good thing to take on board.

[Rawz]

100% agree Winner. Give it back and then give 90% of earnings back here on out and just dominate Aus/Can/NZ where the brand is strong.

[Waltzing]

Big special DIV has to be then! And a share buy back..

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Had to have a little nibble today with this sell off - picked some up at $1.32.

[hyinvest]

13616
According to ASB, not that much buying volume.

[Rawz]

Probably fair value around these levels.

Waltz said it was BUY at $1.30

[Waltzing]

with inflation hitting harder than expected around the world and petrol going sky high these are not really defensive and you see the likes of MR B stocked up on cash.

one dollar 10 if real weakness comes into the market.

This was only a speculative stock buy not something you could look at the balance sheet and say this is technology going to replace everything old.

in fact the speculative stocks where orders will be flowing in are defence stocks.

the new bling...

[winner69]

Air Canada coming to NZ

That should be good for MHJ

[Waltzing]

Is that an official BUY recommendation? Are their air crew better looking.

I knew 2 blondes who would have got jobs instantly for European airlines both intelligent both turned down by AIR.

In winter they just wear furs?

well it was a winner today up 5%!

the market still has faith!

In the US Signet made it numbers.

[Rawz]

MHJ (a favorite of mine), could be very close to a buy in the coming weeks

It has showed great strength. Just like the blues tonight v chiefs

[Waltzing]

Since most of the increase in profits or getting back to profit comes from canada the fortunes of the company might be more closely tied to how happy they are with ICE hockey teams..

https://www.nhl.com/canucks

[Waltzing]

looking for sub 1.20 here . 1.10 a re entry point.

inflation stifling all the retail stocks at the moment.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

looking for sub 1.20 here . 1.10 a re entry point.

inflation stifling all the retail stocks at the moment.

Will be interesting to see what happens this cycle. Inflation is generally ok for retailers (they increase operating leverage as they increase prices faster than other operating costs like lease, utilities and wage costs can rise), but in combination with the Covid impacted high shipping costs thst advantage may be muted.

retail property holders Kiwi & Stride will be salivating at the prospect of being able to increase rents faster than expected - and still potentially be a falling percentage of their tenants turnover.

[percy]

Will be interesting to see what happens this cycle. Inflation is generally ok for retailers (they increase operating leverage as they increase prices faster than other operating costs like lease, utilities and wage costs can rise), but in combination with the Covid impacted high shipping costs thst advantage may be muted.

retail property holders Kiwi & Stride will be salivating at the prospect of being able to increase rents faster than expected - and still potentially be a falling percentage of their tenants turnover.

Customers hate price increases.
Tightening budgets will affect all retailers.
Some more than others.
Rents in Malls.Always remember MHJ's competition in big NZ Malls is James Pascoe.which just happens to be part of The Norman retail group,which includes Farmers,Stevens,and Whitcoulls.And you can bet your boots MHJ would be paying twice the rent Pascoes are.Pascoes will have a field day any time MHJ put up prices.

[Sideshow Bob]

368589.pdf (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/390426/368589.pdf)

SALES GROWTH AND MARGIN EXPANSION CONTINUES

Third Quarter Trading Update 11 April 2022

Michael Hill International Limited (ASX/NZX: MHJ) is pleased to provide its third quarter trading update for the period ended 27 March 2022.

KEY POINTS
• Continued strong sales growth in all markets and channels – For the quarter, all store sales were up 11.1% and same store sales were up 4.8% against prior year. On a year to date basis, even with over 10,000 lost store trading days and the more recent impact of Omicron, all store sales were up 4.8%, against prior year.
• Sustained margin expansion – Margin growth of 200 to 300 bps in all markets and channels against FY21Q3.
• Strong digital growth continues – Omni-channel initiatives continue to deliver, resulting in a year to date increase in digital sales of 31.1%, which now represent 7.6% of total sales (FY21: 6.3%). The strategic market analysis to identify preferred new territories for international digital expansion is progressing well.
• Brilliance by Michael Hill – The loyalty program which is a key enabler for growth, now exceeds 1.25 million members.
• Strong balance sheet maintained – Disciplined working capital management, no adverse supply chain impacts on stock levels, and a healthy cash position at the end of the quarter.
• Capital Management – The Company continues to explore potential acquisition targets.
• Store portfolio management – Three under-performing stores permanently closed (AU:1, NZ:1, CA:1) and one new store opened in Australia during the quarter, with a network total of 283 stores across all markets at the end of the quarter (FY21Q3: 288).

Commenting on the result, Managing Director and CEO of Michael Hill International Limited, Daniel Bracken said:“I’m delighted with our strong Q3 results, considering the disruption from Omicron - whilst there were no mandated lockdowns, the business experienced lower foot traffic and challenges with staff rostering. Pleasingly, once again, the business delivered strong growth in both sales and margin, despite these headwinds.

“I’m particularly proud of this result as it marks our eleventh quarter of positive same store sales growth since FY19Q3,demonstrating the transformation and elevation of the Michael Hill brand is continuing to resonate with both new and loyal customers.

Our sustained margin expansion and continued growth in store and digital conversion is further demonstration that the underlying strategies represent a reset of our operating model.

“While recognising the changing economic environment, the business remains focused on delivering our key strategic priorities. We continue to place a strong emphasis on enhancing our successful loyalty program and excellence in retail fundamentals, while also exploring digital expansion opportunities in new territories and pursuing potential acquisitions.”

[Rawz]

Solid result. Well done MHJ

[percy]

Yes an excellent result.

[Waltzing]

Normally would think its wonderful. While the US market doesnt hit these guys and gals the big fat elephant in the room hasnt sat on everyone yet. Their plan is to sit on the market in the coming 12 to 24 months or as LONG as it takes to stop the inflation train?

Thats why dont see a HUGE upside but certainly worth getting the DIV.

[Beau]

Very pleased with that result MHJ under the present conditions.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Whoa - nice work MHJ!

very impressed they managed to even increase sales in NZ & Australia year on year, despite the obvious Omicron handbrake. Very well done.

also caught my eye: “…also exploring digital expansion opportunities in new territories” I new they were looking at acquisitions, but also looking at an online launch in new markets is a very capital efficient expansion plan for countries like US, UK/Europe, Japan etc. Really is a big blue ocean for MHJ to dive into.

[Muse]

Solid result. Well done MHJ

bit of sparkle there eh rawz - the family back on to wagyu & caviar tonight?

[winner69]

Whoa - nice work MHJ!

very impressed they managed to even increase sales in NZ & Australia year on year, despite the obvious Omicron handbrake. Very well done.

also caught my eye: “…also exploring digital expansion opportunities in new territories” I new they were looking at acquisitions, but also looking at an online launch in new markets is a very capital efficient expansion plan for countries like US, UK/Europe, Japan etc. Really is a big blue ocean for MHJ to dive into.



I really admire your enthusiasm LEK

Suppose I'll be the loser and miss out on the rewards that this global expansion will bring

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I really admire your enthusiasm LEK

Suppose I'll be the loser and miss out on the rewards that this global expansion will bring

I am admittedly a recent convert to MHJ, and I forget they previously had a US expansion (I don’t see them attempting to enter the US again with Michael Hill branded stores, maybe online only or an acquisition of another brand perhaps).

[Rawz]

Gee MHJ is really a solid performer.
I guess recession or no recession people still get married, there are still birthdays for loved ones, anniversary's etc

More reliable than HLG and trading on a much lower multiple.

For W69- With the massive war chest of $75m odd the world is it's oyster. It could be time to give CEO/CFO a bit of credit and assume they will allocate that cash in a smart way that provides growth into new markets for the next decade+ ahead. MHJ has better growth prospects than HLG, BGP & WHS and is trading on a meager 10-11 fwd p/e (without backing out the cash)

Putting away the baked beans :t_up: but now thinking i dont hold enough MHJ shares

[Waltzing]

The man in the wheel house (or flight deck) RF hopefully will keep them from getting bling in their eyes and they dont go off and do anything silly like buy up some useless bankrupt jewellery chain.

Choppy next 24 months coming; but Carter Worth has said the 10YR might not go much higher.

But nothing in the short term will put more money in people pockets unless wages go up and that means stagflation starts to leak out.

It not a time to go all over weight on retail?

Without RF there would not have touched this stock.

The big easy gains from investing in this stock have been made from the lows.

Still worth having some.

[Rawz]

The man in the wheel house (or flight deck) RF hopefully will keep them from getting bling in their eyes and they dont go off and do anything silly like buy up some useless bankrupt jewellery chain.

Choppy next 24 months coming; but Carter Worth has said the 10YR might not go much higher.

But nothing in the short term will put more money in people pockets unless wages go up and that means stagflation starts to leak out.

It not a time to go all over weight on retail?

No- still caution required on retail but wow MHJ could be the one if you were going to take a slice of the retail pie.

MHJ have closed 47 stores since 2017. I remember listening to a earnings call last year and the CEO noted that the CFO had a passion for drilling down into the store specific numbers. As if he had figured out the science behind it.
I am now starting to think management need more credit in how they allocate the cash. It certainly isnt priced into the SP. Its priced in like they are going to blow it. Not sure that is fair based on results through very tough trading conditions when everyone else (bar BGP) have seen sales fall

[winner69]

Hey Rawz ....closed 1 store in NZ

Must be heaps more due to close ..... Michael Hill a train wreck in NZ ..... Pascoes and others gradually whittling away at their market share I reckon

Yep - got to think of MHJ as a global company eh

[Waltzing]

did a store profit just before we took out 3 portfolio positions back in early 2021.

not hard even with the limited data they publish in the FA YTD.

They will have detailed data one supposes.

It a bit like fashion design. If you have the talent in that industry you can make it but it much harder industry one would think then just selling the stuff HLG sells.

You have to have a mix of artistic craft people mixing it with the likes of RF management types.

A bit of a high wire balancing act.

" Its priced in like they are going to blow it"

well its been a business that in the past has blown it!!! But now they are back on the high wire for sure.

Even Telsa looked like it would go under a while back and Musk recently commented "Production is the hard part".

Always believed that there was a reason the celts produced the arts and crafts they did and that is alive and well today in societies around the world.

[Rawz]

Hey Rawz ....closed 1 store in NZ

Must be heaps more due to close ..... Michael Hill a train wreck in NZ ..... Pascoes and others gradually whittling away at their market share I reckon

Yep - got to think of MHJ as a global company eh

Close one store. Sell 3% more goods via improved online offering and at 200bp higher margin. This is their story, W69.

Pascoes and co can carry on with their gimmicky promotions, massive brick n mortar store footprint battling away with rising labour costs and rents tracking inflation. Meanwhile MHJ is operating in the future and laughing all the way to the bank

[Sideshow Bob]

Market likes it....$1.31

[winner69]

Market likes it....$1.31

When ASX opens it’ll go up even more …..over $1.50 tomorrow

[Waltzing]

170?

winner surely not ....

[Rawz]

the amazing race to 2 bucks back on?? (STU V MHJ)

[Waltzing]

ones a real business the other is discretionary..

hardly a fair race.

[winner69]

Rawz - suppose you've upped your full year forecast .... NPAT $60m?

Jeez that puts MHJ on a PE of about 8 ....and if we do it the way like doing it and forget about the cash it's PE is just over 7

I just might get tempted ....tempted and not based on fundamentals is just being seduced

[Rawz]

Before today i had $42.3m based on lower margins so down from $45.2m last year.

Probably still around mid $40m's thou?

[Waltzing]

why not back up the P&L items and use.. EBIDA.

[Rawz]

"i think that, every time you see the word EBITDA, you should substitute the words bull**** earnings"

LOL- Charlie Munger

[Waltzing]

EBIDA is not EBITDA.

In this case would rather take a hard look at the reported P&L items.

NPAT is great but would rather in this case use EBIDA.

[Rawz]

I personally never take depreciation or amortization out of any calculation unless i am calculating basic debt servicing ability.

[Muse]

EBIDA is not EBITDA.

He also thinks the CCP is a good model. Hes not GOD.

In this case would rather take a hard look at the reported P&L items.

NPAT is great but would rather in this case use EBIDA.

EV/EBITDA, EV/EBITA,EV/EBIT all have there place but its gotten harder to do the EV calc with IFRS changes. Used to be you took market capitalisation and added debt & equivalents less surplus cash, now you need to add lease liabilities as rent no longer included above the EBITDA line. Then it also became the norm for EBItDA to exclude anything mgmt deemed abnormal

Brokers and companies love ebitda because it makes earnings sound bigger. I’ve been an EBIT man as depreciation is real. And npat just easier and better understood

[Waltzing]

Increase in cash position should mean an increase in DIV or a special surely.

Agreed A is real but it depends on life time of assets and that can vary business to business class.

Every investor may choose their view.

In this case prefer to take it out in the short term.

IE... next 24 months.

Once again the accounting PHD's have complicated or over complicated the theory and leads to contamination of the accounting data.

This thing is starting to look like a bit of a cash cow..

A pied piper and the customers in the loyalty program singing along behind..

[Waltzing]

A 100,000 taken out on from the sell side..

[winner69]

Shareclarity DCF values are usually so pessimistic …like They just revised SUM up to $8.72

Jeez their MHJ DCF is A$1.37 …about NZ$1.50

That’s some endorsement

[Rawz]

I have found after each positive update the SP sits for a couple of days before it grinds back up

Look at the aussie's asleep at the wheel ?

[Waltzing]

Its only MHJ... ASX is a big market..

Its a great result far beyond expectations for this once beleaguered little bling outfit...

very exciting result though ..

lot of focus these days on metals since some source may be limited by sanctions.

since it now more efficient it could beat 1.70 now as the market priced it there back in 2016.

Image another year of the same performance.. Staggering increase in CASH. $$$$$$

[Halebop]

I couldn’t quite understand the recent sell off. This announcement was predictable. Like for like sales includes trading days which is why that is up 4.8% vs overall 11% increase I.e. there are more trading days hence the 11% increase but like for like ignored more trading days. This will be a driver on net margins, gross margin expansion is an extra gift.

[Waltzing]

Market probably not believing the performance could continue.

But the EBIT as FM has mentioned really showed in 21 just how well they were performing.

Appear they still are!!!

[Waltzing]

bit of a stand off today in MHJ trading.

centing to the up side.

133.

no rush in the inflation world to buy jewellers shares it appears.

[Waltzing]

Friday 22, MHJ over 120,000 vol.

Nice support.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Canadian Feb retail sales released: “Jewelry, luggage & leather goods” category up 17% year on year.

(they also gave an uncommon early preview of March data - which presently indicates annual retail sales growth continues)

for context, MHJ has already released its trading update for this period, and there revenue in Canada was up 42% in Q1.

[Rawz]

Canadian Feb retail sales released: “Jewelry, luggage & leather goods” category up 17% year on year.

(they also gave an uncommon early preview of March data - which presently indicates annual retail sales growth continues)

for context, MHJ has already released its trading update for this period, and there revenue in Canada was up 42% in Q1.

MHJ really cheap aye LEK

20% of their market cap is probably cash now

[winner69]

Canadian Feb retail sales released: “Jewelry, luggage & leather goods” category up 17% year on year.

(they also gave an uncommon early preview of March data - which presently indicates annual retail sales growth continues)

for context, MHJ has already released its trading update for this period, and there revenue in Canada was up 42% in Q1.

Huge market share gains by looks of it .... amazing

Could see more than A$200m out of Canada in F23 .... massive growth

Buoyant market and big market share gains ....what a combo

[Rawz]

Huge market share gains by looks of it .... amazing

Could see more than A$200m out of Canada in F23 .... massive growth

Buoyant market and big market share gains ....what a combo

I hope Pascoes dont expand into Canada and ruin the party lol

[winner69]

Huge market share gains by looks of it .... amazing

Could see more than A$200m out of Canada in F23 .... massive growth

Buoyant market and big market share gains ....what a combo

.... and I forgot about the expanding margins

[winner69]

I hope Pascoes dont expand into Canada and ruin the party lol

Rawz, when is the MHJ share price hit $2 .... on the ASX of course

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Lots of blue ocean in Canada still for MHJ:

Australia population: 26 million, MHJ Q1 Australian revenue: $71.6m AUD = $2.75c per capita

Canada population: 38 million, MHJ Q1 Canadian revenue: $30.9m CAD = $0.81c per capita

NZ population: 5.1 million, MHJ Q1 NZ revenue: $28.1m NZD = $5.51c per capita

(I’m not expecting NZ level of penetration, but getting anywhere close to the Australian level would be a reasonable goal)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Spooky timing: MHJ announces it has received a $12 million payment for its finance book in Canada:

(the cash pile continues to mount)

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/390977/369228.pdf\


26 April 2022ASX AND NZX ANNOUNCEMENT Sale of Canadian Consumer Credit Book


Michael Hill International Limited (ASX/NZX: MHJ) is pleased to announce it has agreed to the sale of its in-house Canadian credit receivables to Canadian consumer credit provider, Flexiti Financial Inc. (“Flexiti”), with an effective date of 31 May 2022.


MHJ has partnered with Flexiti for the provision of third-party consumer credit across MHJ’s 85 store Canadian network, and in a global first for MHJ, offering long term credit applications on-line.
Cash sale proceeds currently estimated at approximately A$12m will be received in early June 2022, based on the 31 May 2022 book balance. This sale further enhances the Company’s balance sheet, while also strengthening its cash position.


Commenting on the sale, Managing Director and CEO of Michael Hill International Limited, Daniel Bracken said:


“This strategic partnership with Flexiti presents a significant opportunity to expand and enhance our Canadian offering, with access to a broader customer base. We look forward to enhancing this important relationship with Flexiti, which provides a further growth and productivity lever for our already highly performing Canadian business.”


This announcement is authorised for release by the Board. ENDS

[Waltzing]

more money in the BANK. with no cap ex in sight wonder what the balance sheet pile will end up at.

:t_up:

[LaserEyeKiwi]

This one-off $12 million payment will basically cover the dividend payment made during this half year.

Cash as a percentage of market cap at the next earnings will be over 25% (based on todays market cap of ~$500m), meaning the true (excluding cash) earnings multiple is going to be somewhere closer to 7-8x

[winner69]

Lots of blue ocean in Canada still for MHJ:

Australia population: 26 million, MHJ Q1 Australian revenue: $71.6m AUD = $2.75c per capita

Canada population: 38 million, MHJ Q1 Canadian revenue: $30.9m CAD = $0.81c per capita

NZ population: 5.1 million, MHJ Q1 NZ revenue: $28.1m NZD = $5.51c per capita

(I’m not expecting NZ level of penetration, but getting anywhere close to the Australian level would be a reasonable goal)

what is it like on a per store basis

[Waltzing]

lets hope they dont buy another chain.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Down 5c so far today - very strange reaction.

Although that’s on less than $10k shares traded so almost no volume.

[Waltzing]

WHS up ..... Bling is not going to be foremost on investors minds.

Once again it will be a surprise if they can keep puck'in it in the net.

buyers lining up at low 1.20's

[winner69]

Jeez …the soon to be opened Costco in Auckland is going to sell ‘high quality jewellery and watches’

[Baa_Baa]

Jeez …the soon to be opened Costco in Auckland is going to sell ‘high quality jewellery and watches’

So, no competition?

[Waltzing]

lets face its a highly competitive world wide business and it's a miracle they have bounced back to this level.

hope they consolidate the business at this point and dont buy anything else unless its a BARGAIN.

[Habits]

Dont buy unless it is a BARGAIN... nice and subtle. Then literally everyone gets a bargain

[Waltzing]

yup and dont buy it because its a BARGAIN for a reason...

one dollar on the charts looking good..unless they release another out of the rink update in june july.

[Rawz]

If it goes to $1 ill make this my top holding again as youll be buying future earnings at an incredible price

[Waltzing]

1;just cant see it. Somehow they have pied piper the customers.

[Waltzing]

RAWS; "MHJ a buy when it holds $100m cash on the balance sheet."

its a worry what they are going to do with it. A big worry.

[winner69]

RAWS; "MHJ a buy when it holds $100m cash on the balance sheet."

its a worry what they are going to do with it. A big worry.

Nothing worse than a company (with big egos?) with mountains of cash

Cash burns holes in one’s pockets they say …no doubt most of the $100m will be frittered away ….wasted on some grandiose initiative.

[Waltzing]

R F is there now and dont think he will let that happen. Dont like when they say looking to buy another Celtic Art Maker.

They dont have the record of success at such.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

They are operating a bit differently now, see the new dividend policy recently announced of returning 50%-75% of net income as dividends.

[Waltzing]

Should be paying a Special DIV.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Should be paying a Special DIV.

Yes, Agree.

[Waltzing]

POUND the TABLE.

SPECIAL DIV!
SPECIAL DIV!!
SPECIAL DIV!!!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

POUND the TABLE.

SPECIAL DIV!
SPECIAL DIV!!
SPECIAL DIV!!!

I would be also be happy with a large share buyback instead.

[Waltzing]

Dont think the HILLS would go for it.

Special DIV would suite them also.

on issue only 388 million and say 50 million dollar buyback?

better off to up the DIV and Special Div on top of it.

unless sales fall off a cliff its very under valued by the inflation wild fires.

[winner69]

Signet must have a dud brand or two they thinking of hocking off ….MHJ might see Peoples Jewellers as a good fit and buy them.

[Waltzing]

with the DOOMS Day Book coming for the wealthy, the Hills might move somewhere.

Special Div big time and send if off shore from AUS .

Its hide the Jewels time coming soon.

https://apnews.com/article/business-earnings-bermuda-hamilton-signet-jewelers-ltd-3531c56134a761f1c57ae03ae3d3a587

SP just slipped below 1.20.

[winner69]

New div policy implies $35m divie - less $13m already paid - leaves $22m to be paid re F22

Still have $80m in bank - do a $60m buyback

Say average cost $1.30 that's 46 million shares (might need to a prorata sort of deal and return cash and cancel shares)

Reduces number of shares to about 340 million

F23 earnings $50m --- ie a EPS of 14.5 cents (v 12.8 based on current number of shares) ... and shareprice in years time $2.00

So from $1.20 odd get another 3 more divies totalling 20 cents and equivalent of 16 cents from buyback .... and late next year the shares you still have worth 2 bucks

What can go wrong .... nothing

[winner69]

SP just slipped below 1.20.

That's on the ASX waltz .... I fell into that trap as well

[Rawz]

RAWS; "MHJ a buy when it holds $100m cash on the balance sheet."

its a worry what they are going to do with it. A big worry.


Nothing worse than a company (with big egos?) with mountains of cash

Cash burns holes in one’s pockets they say …no doubt most of the $100m will be frittered away ….wasted on some grandiose initiative.

I think we need to give the good people at MHJ a bit more credit.. Daniel Bracken (CEO) joined Nov 2018 and together with his buddy, Andrew Lowe (CFO) they have overseen a very prudent restructure of the company. They closed 27 stores and have been great custodians of the balance sheet taking borrowings from -$27m to a cash pile of $100m (ish) in this time. This is whilst navigating an unprecedented global pandemic.

They have worked very hard to build that war chest and I dont think they are going to spend it willy nilly on some grand acquisition. It doesnt fit the profile and historic actions of management.
I am guessing it is going to be a small bolt on acquisition in a new market that they can grow.

The cash pile is worth about 25 cents. remove that and MHJ is trading on 7.7 p/e. It is cheap and maybe it deserves to be given the cost of living crisis... maybe not.. people thought MHJ wouldnt sell any jewelry during the lock downs yet MHJ time after time surprised the market and produced amazing numbers. People now saying customers are only ever going to buy consumer staples.. MHJ will continue to sell trinkets folks.. you better believe it. There is always another birthday, engagement, anniversary, wedding and no matter how much Beagle tells you a can of baked beans from the WHS is the new gift for todays times.. I can promise you its not lol

[winner69]

The cash pile is worth about 25 cents. remove that and MHJ is trading on 7.7 p/e.

That Signet we been mentioning (SIG.NYSE) has sales of US$7.8 bilion and $735m profit

That trades on a trailing PE of 5.7 and forward PE of 6.1

Makes MHJ expensive lol ..... but maybe it's just that the world is not really attracted to jewellers as an investment

And SIG are returning zillions to shareholders to sort of their balance sheet

[Rawz]

That Signet we been mentioning (SIG.NYSE) has sales of US$7.8 bilion and $735m profit

That trades on a trailing PE of 5.7 and forward PE of 6.1

Makes MHJ expensive lol ..... but maybe it's just that the world is not really attracted to jewellers as an investment

And SIG are returning zillions to shareholders to sort of their balance sheet

I dont know anything about this SIG co. Sounds like a deal lol

Anyways.. yes jewelers... tough gig right now. Maybe it gets way oversold like during covid? then I can get another 3-4 bagger

[winner69]

I dont know anything about this SIG co. Sounds like a deal lol

Anyways.. yes jewelers... tough gig right now. Maybe it gets way oversold like during covid? then I can get another 3-4 bagger

You should an eye on SIG.NYSE updates to get a feel for the North America (including Canada) markets

Canada the guts of MHJ going forward eh .... without Canada they going nowhere

[Waltzing]

In the DARK ages and some might say in parts of europe a new Dark age has reappeared; the Celts were busy as ever making trinkets and maybe in times of trouble people actually feel better wearing it!!!

One arts historian and commentator even decided that the Dark Ages were not so Dark because of the quality of the Jewellery being crafted.

Waldemar Januszczak.

[winner69]

Mothers Day good for Michael Hill in this part of the world …..prob helped last month in other parts.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

hard to find hard data on this, but I recall hearing quite a bit about how the wedding industry is ramping back up now globally with a big surge due to many weddings having been delayed over the last couple of years now going ahead in 2022 & 2023. Can definitely see this in NZ & OZ as many waited until borders were reopened for overseas guests, and for local gathering limits to be removed.

I have no idea how much business jewelers get from wedding band sets (and engagement rings I guess), but I presume its substantial.

[Waltzing]

This is not a BUY right now .. wait for a 100....

NOT a BUY...

:eek2:

They arnt going to pay a special...no buyback.. no new stores...

Nothing to see here... nothing.. NADA

[Waltzing]

Strong day in MHJ.

what on earth are the retail investors thinking. Inflation fires everywhere all over the globe.

This is a terrible risk.

There will be NO increase in the DIV.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Do you have inside info on MHJ plans Waltzing? Those are rather definitive statements to make if based on opinion.

meanwhile data says retail spending last month remains healthy:

Spending through Worldline's payments network amongst the rest of the core retail sector was $2.9 billion in April - up 4.1 per cent on the same time last year and 15.4 per cent on April 2019.

Worldline said these growth rates were similar to those seen in the previous five months.


"Spending in the rest of the Core Retail sector, which overall is far larger than Hospitality, is maintaining a growth momentum at present, at least in terms of total dollars being spent," Putnam said.


He said the average value of a payment transaction had increased since 12-months ago - consistent with generally higher prices.
The average value of April transactions through all core retail merchants in Worldline's network (excluding Hospitality) was $52.84, a 8.9 per cent increase since April last year and 11 per cent since April 2019.


"In April this year we saw spending at merchants selling discretionary products – such as clothing and footwear, or electrical goods – showing growth patterns very similar to earlier months, suggesting that any inflation-induced cutbacks in spending have been modest so far."

[Beau]

Do you have inside info on MHJ plans Waltzing? Those are rather definitive statements to make if based on opinion.
My thoughts exactly LEK Seems to write what just comes to mind with out any base to it or maybe he does have inside knowledge on MHJ dividend plans. Maybe uncle Michael:)

[Waltzing]

Just joking... hoping that the price will sell off in inflation panic but no sellers!!

Notice that NZ retail hasnt sold off today much at all.

The balance sheet alone adds value to the SP but one always hope the SHAZ doesnt actually read the Financial balance sheet sections.

Even if sales drop off the DIV will be maintained one thinks.

Cant we scare the SHAZ into selling? Like one economics commentator on CNBC commented about 4 percent required and talking about Volker....

Does the SHAZ even remember the 1970's.

Its the next 6 months thats the great unknown not April data.

Notice MR B has increased cash and will be hoping for some dismal data appearing in the next 6 to 12 months.

[sideline]

Hi there, TAX question about MHJ dividends:
if you own MHJ on the NZX, are dividends treated tax wise as any other NZ company
or is there a difference because it is headquartered in Brisbane??

[clearasmud]

Hi there, TAX question about MHJ dividends:
if you own MHJ on the NZX, are dividends treated tax wise as any other NZ company
or is there a difference because it is headquartered in Brisbane??

Dividends are treated as any other NZ company.
MHJ has its primary listing on the ASX and its secondary listing on the NZX but has fully imputed NZ dividends.
For Australian tax payers there are no franking credits at the moment, sad for them.
Reason is it looks as though MHJ load all head office overheads onto the Australian operation to reduce overall tax bill. Australian company tax rate 30%,NZ 28%) But I could be wrong about that.

[sideline]

Dividends are treated as any other NZ company.
MHJ has its primary listing on the ASX and its secondary listing on the NZX but has fully imputed NZ dividends.
For Australian tax payers there are no franking credits at the moment, sad for them.
Reason is it looks as though MHJ load all head office overheads onto the Australian operation to reduce overall tax bill. Australian company tax rate 30%,NZ 28%) But I could be wrong about that.

Thanks for the info.:)

[Rawz]

Warren Buffett said at the Birkshire Hathaway annual meeting the other day that jewelry businesses are usually terrible businesses but post covid they have all made super profits because of all the stimulus. People had so much money that they didnt know what to do with it.. jewelry business didnt even need to run sales and inventory days reduced massively because people were walking in, buying and walking out.

Obviously he's not including our MHJ in this generalization. Right?

[Waltzing]

Special DIV on this is a must.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Warren Buffett said at the Birkshire Hathaway annual meeting the other day that jewelry businesses are usually terrible businesses but post covid they have all made super profits because of all the stimulus. People had so much money that they didnt know what to do with it.. jewelry business didnt even need to run sales and inventory days reduced massively because people were walking in, buying and walking out.

Obviously he's not including our MHJ in this generalization. Right?

Nope.

MHJ revenue was higher pre-pandemic (18 & 19) than in either of the pandemic impacted completed financial years (20 & 21).

Australia, New Zealand & Canada did not have any helicopter payments to consumers (only support payments in form of wage subsidies, and extended/upgraded unemployment benefits to those that lost their jobs). Meanwhile in the USA everybody received stimulus checks and there was also a massive amount extra given in the form of child tax credits (now finished).

So while Buffett was no doubt correct about USA jewelry chains, it did not apply to MHJ at all.

[clearasmud]

Nope.

MHJ revenue was higher pre-pandemic (18 & 19) than in either of the pandemic impacted completed financial years (20 & 21).

Australia, New Zealand & Canada did not have any helicopter payments to consumers (only support payments in form of wage subsidies, and extended/upgraded unemployment benefits to those that lost their jobs). Meanwhile in the USA everybody received stimulus checks and there was also a massive amount extra given in the form of child tax credits (now finished).

So while Buffett was no doubt correct about USA jewelry chains, it did not apply to MHJ at all.
Just topped up at $1 on the asx.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Just topped up at $1 on the asx.

Crikey! Struth!!

[winner69]

Maybe a case of once being a market pariah always a market pariah ....unloved and unwanted

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Maybe a case of once being a market pariah always a market pariah ....unloved and unwanted

I really hope they do a share buyback.

[Rawz]

Just give us a 30 cent dividend and be done with it

[clearasmud]

Just give us a 30 cent dividend and be done with it
They can't even do franked dividends and won't say when.

[Waltzing]

just have to wait for the next results the markets in a funk and it wont change any time soon..

turning out that shares are more STABLE than crypto.

real companies behind shares..

[Rawz]

just have to wait for the next results the markets in a funk and it wont change any time soon..

turning out that shares are more STABLE than crypto.

real companies behind shares..

Yes agree. Another $45m result will stabilize the SP. Its cheap and no reason why we cant get 10cent annual dividends on $45m npat. Should keep the SP above a buck. Its cheap now but below $1.. me oh my yes boy, i would like that

[Waltzing]

share needs to test underlying channel of 100 but needs a final sell off on the global markets.

cant see it though as investors will be buying at or near the 100 mark as stated by RAWZ.

[Rawz]

share needs to test underlying channel of 100 but needs a final sell off on the global markets.

cant see it though as investors will be buying at or near the 100 mark as stated by RAWZ.

Well market screener consensus if for eps of $0.38 for the next 3 years. So if you can buy that for $1 its great. Get your money back after 5 years. Anything below a dollar is amazing

[Waltzing]

"eps of $0.38 "

that would be AMAZING!

[Rawz]

In total over 3 years.. not per year. Now that would be amazing.!!

Maybe one day $0.38 pa.. once this big $100m acquisition is announced and the piggy bank is emptied.. add in a bit of growth.. could get there

[Waltzing]

Hopefully they dont buy anything other than new products to sell.

MHJ sponser of Dancing with Stars... prancing with the stars...

Got say some of the ballroom looks more like rock and roll...

but hey its all good advertising for MHJ!!!!

Big day of trading support for MHJ today..

[Waltzing]

Shock inflation figures to come out across the globe this month and next... and the month after...

100 is the best price here....nothing more....RISK is OFF.... OFF

[winner69]

A bit about why MHJ is a great investment in this article

https://pinnacleinvestment.com/is-this-the-real-life-or-is-this-just-fantasy/

[LaserEyeKiwi]

A bit about why MHJ is a great investment in this article

https://pinnacleinvestment.com/is-this-the-real-life-or-is-this-just-fantasy/

Nice post, thanks for sharing. Needs to add “crazy pills” to the equation, which is what I think I must be taking watching the price drop so low given the underlying fundamentals of the company.

[Waltzing]

W(n) they are talking their own book!!!!

Having said that MHJ is a cash flow positive company and profitable. Hmm maybe 1.10 ish is a reasonable price but its cyclical and that means their share price should get pummelled until the numbers say otherwise.

that last set of numbers was just before the world went upside down....

the great thing about markets is that they repeat themselves every 5 to 10 years.

[Waltzing]

YMMW

Youve Moved the MARKET WINNER(n)

please no more of those posts......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpYEJx7PkWE

[winner69]

W(n) they are talking their own book!!!!

Having said that MHJ is a cash flow positive company and profitable. Hmm maybe 1.10 ish is a reasonable price but its cyclical and that means their share price should get pummelled until the numbers say otherwise.

that last set of numbers was just before the world went upside down....

the great thing about markets is that they repeat themselves every 5 to 10 years.

SPHERIA are part of Pinnacle

Great excitment over on FPH thread as Pinnacle have been buying heaps of FPH shares

[Waltzing]

YES they have been buying FPH.... 10 years late....

lets hope they ignore MHJ.....

[Waltzing]

Think Walmart here people... dont get carried away...

its a RISK OFF market....:t_up:

freight charges, electricity , rent increases, wages increases, starving staff.

Strikes combined with race protests and striking hockey players....

RISK OFF...

[Beau]

Think Walmart here people... dont get carried away...

its a RISK OFF market....:t_up:

freight charges, electricity , rent increases, wages increases, starving staff.

Strikes combined with race protests and striking hockey players....

RISK OFF...

I think I have brain fog run that past me again

[Waltzing]

MHJ just seems to defy the world of negative news...

7 day range 107 to 120...

impossible to know what this stock will do next....

[LaserEyeKiwi]

MHJ just seems to defy the world of negative news...

7 day range 107 to 120...

impossible to know what this stock will do next....



Well it was only last month they said their march quarter revenue was up 11% - and at better gross margins - than the comparable year earlier period, despite many lost trading days due to Covid disruptions.

Also got a mini-windfall from selling the Canadian credit book.

this stock is ridiculously cheap considering its ex-cash value, and i take my hat off to anyone who added at 1.07 last week - got a hell of a deal.

[Waltzing]

"1.07 last week - got a hell of a deal."

they sure did and it good see at least one retail stock holding up its SP in what has to seen as very severe pressures.

it can be a bit woobly and low 110 to 115 might turn up again....hopefully

[Waltzing]

Gosh still holding up... what are those silly Canucks thinking ..

[Beau]

Gosh still holding up... what are those silly Canucks thinking ..

Have you been buying any or just sitting on the fence / Maybe still waiting for that $1

[Waltzing]

2 Portfolios have some in them. Not at 107.

However if sub 110 comes up again in the next 6 months and the Macro environment has not turned into a major crash we will probably add some to another Portfolio.

But Euro stocks are on the Radar now that Sweden and Finland havnt been invaded....

As one fellow said in Moscow "waving Nukes at Finland is just silly"

Gosh well maybe St Petersburg will be open for Sydney Tourist and Tourist from China before we know it.

Tourism will pick up in the Baltic's.

Even NZ may soon have a pick up in the next 2 to 3 years with Tourism and Retail Stocks will see an up turn in business.

[Waltzing]

Its a Buy!!!

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/20/cramers-lightning-round-signet-jewelers-is-a-buy.html

[Rawz]

It always was a buy/hold because of the cash pile. Trading so cheap. $40m profit through a recession I reckon

[Waltzing]

"Trading so cheap"

Cramer now thinks the same of that other big Jewel operation.. but that chart still looks a bit sloppy.

Still he knows the US markets.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Canada retail sales data out for March, confirming continued year on year growth for the retail segment where jewelry sits. April “preview” data indicates retail sales continued growing.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Couldn’t resist - had to nibble today!

[Waltzing]

well done that man, it riskie but long term should be an interesting play.

waiting for under 1 to add to some small positions in MHJ.

[winner69]

Action in a Michael Hill store

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300615896/watch-footage-reveals-michael-hill-robbery-in-broad-daylight

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Action in a Michael Hill store

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300615896/watch-footage-reveals-michael-hill-robbery-in-broad-daylight

Hopefully they cleaned out the entire store - presuming it is all insured then that is a swift way to turnover inventory.

[Old mate]

That video is out of control. Broad daylight smash and grabs with a stolen car with multiple people filming them.

[winner69]

100 is a nice round number .... they say nice round numbers often act as share price support levels

Therefore I don't expect the MHJ share price to fall below 100

Just in case it doesn't hold might put a bid in at 97 to use up some of punting spare cash

Next sales update in a few weeks time

[winner69]

Q4 sales should be a boomer ..... +25% on last year

That would take annual stores tp A$700m ..... another nice round number eh

[Rawz]

Wonder what nice round number cash will be??

[winner69]

Wonder what nice round number cash will be??

Might even come out and say how they are going to spend it

[sb9]

Looks like market pricing in a boomer Q4 update and use of fattening cash balance..

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Looks like market pricing in a boomer Q4 update and use of fattening cash balance..

ANZ released a statement saying their data showed Australian retail spending was stronger than expected in June, showing solid growth. Job vacancies there were also at all time highs during June.

[Waltzing]

retail SP 's up , banks down..

[Rawz]

MHJ so well run its probably taking market share as well...

Well managed company., how much in the bank again?? $100m omg :eek2:

[winner69]

ANZ released a statement saying their data showed Australian retail spending was stronger than expected in June, showing solid growth. Job vacancies there were also at all time highs during June.

Westpac said much the same .... esp discretionary retail



All looking good for Michael Stores in Oz .... and Glassons of course

Should reflect in much stronger MHJ share price ..... zoom past 132 and finish year at 2 bucks?

[winner69]

MHJ so well run its probably taking market share as well...

Well managed company., how much in the bank again?? $100m omg :eek2:

Not doing much sitting in the bank that $100m is it

[Waltzing]

your hated channel winner(n) says hard landing in AUZ chance 1 in 4.

but that's the nomura saying possible AUS GPD -.3 in 2023

and US in technical recession for 5 QTR's....

[winner69]

ANZ released a statement saying their data showed Australian retail spending was stronger than expected in June, showing solid growth. Job vacancies there were also at all time highs during June.

Job vacancies all time high ---- possibly see many kiwis heading over there soon

Then we'll be able to say job vacancies at all time high

But in reality unless heaps of aussies have given up working its a sign of an overheated economy .... and more bigger than expected rate rises from RBA

[Rawz]

Not doing much sitting in the bank that $100m is it

2022 Winner is very glum and gloomy

Wonder when we will see 2020/2021 'no worries' Winner. When that Winner comes back its probably the best sign to put all cash back in the market. Maybe thats the sign MHJ are waiting for to deploy their $100m :p

[winner69]

2022 Winner is very glum and gloomy

Wonder when we will see 2020/2021 'no worries' Winner. When that Winner comes back its probably the best sign to put all cash back in the market. Maybe thats the sign MHJ are waiting for to deploy their $100m :p

Just want them to do something with that $100m --- even if its only giving it to us but rather see them use it to make zillions more profit .... better strategy that downsizing and making about the same profit.

jeez, if I was really liked them and keen (like the razor) I could buy the company for $800m and use the $100m to fund the acquisition ... like PE operate

[winner69]

Down trend that's been place since Feb high of 152 now over .... and starting a new uptrend to 150 and beyond

Update could see it really take off

No worries

[Rawz]

Down trend that's been place since Feb high of 152 now over .... and starting a new uptrend to 150 and beyond

Update could see it really take off

No worries

:t_up::t_up::t_up: love it

[Waltzing]

150 ....no no no.....reccessoon in Aus in 2023...

beside there is no green in NZ till the green shoots of spring...

[sb9]

Looking to take off ahead of Q4 trading update later in the week...

[winner69]

Looking to take off ahead of Q4 trading update later in the week...

Is that race with STU to 2 bucks still on .... or was that Rawz

[Rawz]

Is that race with STU to 2 bucks still on .... or was that Rawz

It was a 100m sprint but now a marathon

[Waltzing]

yes could take a few years but thats what make investing an endurance sport.

[winner69]

Looking to take off ahead of Q4 trading update later in the week...

When is it due …could be exciting time

I reckon full year sales quite a lot over $600m

[LaserEyeKiwi]

When is it due …could be exciting time

I reckon full year sales quite a lot over $600m

Will be within the next 7 days presumably - was 16th July the last 2 years, and before that the 10th & 11th of July.

[Rawz]

When is it due …could be exciting time

I reckon full year sales quite a lot over $600m

Wow over $600m... that would be amazing

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Wow over $600m... that would be amazing

I presume we are talking about $600m AUD? Over $600m NZD is pretty much guaranteed at this point.

Already at $456m (AUD) through first 3 quarters (which were impacted by Delta & Omicron), so an outside shot at $600m. $580m seems like a solid possibility - not sure how the Canadian credit book sale will be accounted for.

[Waltzing]

NO NO NO...... slim to no chance...

come on..ramping ....:t_up:

if its hit 1.50 its a sell....

again ...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

We made a purchase at MHJ this past weekend, interesting to see the process currently.

thoughts:
- Can understand why margins are fantastic, paid a lot for what looked like not much (Mrs. LEK assured me it was a nice gift for a 21 year old niece)
- Can understand why the Brilliance membership numbers are growing so fast, you basically would have to be an idiot to buy something at MHJ and not become a member upon purchase, seeing as members get discounts on basically everything in store. As such it seems like the updates MHJ provides on the amount of Brilliance members is probably a good proxy for new customers to MHJ.
- Mrs. LEK did not like how pushy the salesperson was. Mr. LEK was very happy with the pushiness as a shareholder. Good at closing the sale, even had the first item boxed with warranties etc ready even though we were still browsing looking at other options.
- Using two levels of extended warranty for products is good - offers 3yr & 10yr warranty options (with 10yr priced not too far above 3yr to encourage the upsell), but presented such that you are making a choice between 3yr & 10yr and forget there is the option of “no warranty”.
- Buy Now Pay Later is obviously a valuable new sales tool for closing sales. We didn’t need it, but they used the pitch of BNPL when I was looking unenthusiastic about the potential purchase. The impact of BNPL for MHJ may be part of its fantastic performance of late.

[sb9]

Is that race with STU to 2 bucks still on .... or was that Rawz

About 12c differential between them currently, guess that gap will be closed once MHJ gives their trading update later this week. Or perhaps even head to 1.50 based on the numbers and commentary.

[Rawz]

I presume we are talking about $600m AUD? Over $600m NZD is pretty much guaranteed at this point.

Already at $456m (AUD) through first 3 quarters (which were impacted by Delta & Omicron), so an outside shot at $600m. $580m seems like a solid possibility - not sure how the Canadian credit book sale will be accounted for.

I was thinking $570m aus... but Winner is the master lets roll with over $600m lol

[Waltzing]

Winner(=>n)...

unless it is based on a giant statistical model that doesnt exist anywhere on the plant as far as we know its an estimate based on ?

[Rawz]

wait a minute, what does "quite a lot" mean... maybe Winner meaning $620m+? :scared:

[winner69]

wait a minute, what does "quite a lot" mean... maybe Winner meaning $620m+? :scared:

Getting to $600m needs $144m in Q4 --- that's not much more than the $132m in Q4 in 2019 pre-covid

Thus possibility of a 'lot more'

[Rawz]

Getting to $600m needs $144m in Q4 --- that's not much more than the $132m in Q4 in 2019 pre-covid

Thus possibility of a 'lot more'

I hope so Winner. But remember MHJ makes more but sells less these days

[Waltzing]

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/retail-sales#:~:text=Rise%20in%20May-,Retail%20sales%20in%20Canada%20likely%20rose%20by %201.6%25%20month%2Dover,revised%200.2%25%20gain%2 0in%20March.

If this thing hits the numbers suggested then the customers are truly smitten.

It will be almost brain washing.

There are trade reviews you can read. These reviews are done by professional buyers of gems. Some of them publish their gradings for merchants.

[winner69]

I hope so Winner. But remember MHJ makes more but sells less these days

but how long can they go on selling less and making more is a good question to ponder

[Waltzing]

Ponder? you mean the gem buyers and understanding the underlying industry its self.

Synthetics.

we arnt talking https://www.faberge.com/the-world-of-faberge/the-imperial-eggs

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Ponder? you mean the gem buyers and understanding the underlying industry its self.

Synthetics.

we arnt talking https://www.faberge.com/the-world-of-faberge/the-imperial-eggs

MHJ already has a synthetic diamond offering (the Fenix range)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I hope so Winner. But remember MHJ makes more but sells less these days

Can you elaborate on what you mean here? You mean lower volume of transactions but with higher ASPs?

[Waltzing]

"MHJ already has a synthetic diamond offering (the Fenix range)"

yes anyone who visits the site will see it.

It the gem buyers insider reports for the wider industry that hinting at here that make for interesting reading.

[winner69]

Can you elaborate on what you mean here? You mean lower volume of transactions but with higher ASPs?

I think rawz has been impressed with how MHJ have moved from sales of $625m in F18 and profit of $38m to F21 sales of $595m and $53m .... sold less ($s) and made more from closing 'unprofitable' stores, improved margins and good cost control.


Hopefully this year is selling more and making more .... but unless sales are a 'lot more' than $600m it could be a case of selling about the same and making less

[Waltzing]

"case of selling about the same and making less"

either way its still capable of keeping up the DIV and in this environment that good sledding.

[Rawz]

I think rawz has been impressed with how MHJ have moved from sales of $625m in F18 and profit of $38m to F21 sales of $595m and $53m .... sold less ($s) and made more from closing 'unprofitable' stores, improved margins and good cost control.


Hopefully this year is selling more and making more .... but unless sales are a 'lot more' than $600m it could be a case of selling about the same and making less

Yes this. In that time ebit/revenue has gone from 7% to 13%. Pretty cool

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Thanks for elaborating Winner & Rawz.

some good price action so far today…

[Waltzing]

some for sale @ 1.53

the professional gem buyer reports highlight which jewellers buy and sell what quality at what price margins.