MHJ - Michael Hill International.

[Sideshow Bob]

374722.pdf (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/395383/374722.pdf)

Michael Hill International Limited (ASX/NZX: MHJ) is pleased to provide its trading update for the year ended 26 June2022.

KEY POINTS

• Continued positive quarterly sales growth – For the quarter, all store sales were up 17.0% and same store sales were up 2.1% against prior year.• Strong full year sales – For the year, all store sales were up 7.3% (with lost store trading days of ~10,000 in both FY21 and FY22) and same store sales were up 8.0%, against prior year.

• Sustained margin expansion – For the year, margin improvement has continued with a lift of between 150 to 350bps in all markets and channels against FY21. • Strong EBIT growth – The Company anticipates a FY22 Group comparable EBIT of between $60m to $63m(FY21: $56.6m).

• Record digital sales – Omni-channel initiatives continue to deliver strong growth, resulting in another record year,with sales exceeding $40m, an increase of 23% on prior year. Digital sales now represent 7.1% of total sales(FY21: 6.3%).

• Brilliance by Michael Hill – The loyalty program, a key enabler for growth, now exceeds 1.4 million members.

• Strong balance sheet – Disciplined working capital management maintained throughout the year with no adverse supply chain impacts on stock levels, and a healthy net cash position at year end of ~$95m (FY21: $72.4m).

• Store portfolio management – Three under-performing stores permanently closed in Australia during the quarter,with a network total of 280 stores across all markets at the end of the year (FY21: 285).

[LaserEyeKiwi]

BOOM!

$592.5 Million AUD in full year revenue. (Solid beat on my $580m estimate)

$60m-$63m AUD EBIT

The Canada performance - OH MY!

[Rawz]

Amazing result..... well done MHJ.

O Canada!
MHJ home and new native land
True jewelry love in all of us command.
With glowing hearts we see thee rise,
The NEW MHJ strong and free!
From far and wide.
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.
God keep our product glorious and not free!
O Canada, we stand on jewelry for thee.

FY22 NPAT $48M?

[winner69]

DISPPOINTING!

$592.5 Million AUD in full year revenue. (Lot less than my $600m plus a lot)

$60m-$63m AUD EBIT - that's this thing called 'Comparable EBIT, wonder if real NPAT will be higher than F21?

The Canada performance - OH MY! -- AWESOME, just as well

LEK me ol mate - suppose my glasses aren't as rose tinted as yours ..... and hope you enthusiasm feeds through to the market and share price heads to 150

[winner69]

rawz asked FY22 NPAT $48M?

That be good - especially compared to a RESTATED F21 number they'll come up with

[Rawz]

come on winner grinner... its all good this result. LEK and i told you revenue wouldnt be over $600m. so for us its a great result :t_up:

That EBIT figure initially confused me so i didnt over think it and rather take comfort in knowing that sales are UP and margins are UP so profit must be???

Cash on the balance sheet is $95m OMG. Thats 25 cents per share. Back that out and MHJ is trading on a 7.6 P/E... and Canada is on a wicked growth path. Could be as big as aussie one day.

Its a buy!

[sb9]

come on winner grinner... its all good this result. LEK and i told you revenue wouldnt be over $600m. so for us its a great result :t_up:

That EBIT figure initially confused me so i didnt over think it and rather take comfort in knowing that sales are UP and margins are UP so profit must be???

Cash on the balance sheet is $95m OMG. Thats 25 cents per share. Back that out and MHJ is trading on a 7.6 P/E... and Canada is on a wicked growth path. Could be as big as aussie one day.

Its a buy!

Pretty solid performance under current macro economic environment. Canada is shining like a bright maple leaf...

[Waltzing]

look some investors have been with this share through cold ice ages and now bathing in the warm glow of a hot tropical summer when the rest of the world is entering a new ice age.....

congratulation to those who loved the adverts on Rialto channel.......

praise be hallelujah....:t_up:

back to 170....

when it comes to predicting the results of celtic art sales not any one investor has any idea what there sales is going to be unless you have access to the gold booty bag.

You can use probability though .... how many quarters of growth is that now..

really got to increase the DIV else the market will be in hissy tissy street...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePFlovNhPtw

[winner69]

come on winner grinner... its all good this result. LEK and i told you revenue wouldnt be over $600m. so for us its a great result :t_up:

That EBIT figure initially confused me so i didnt over think it and rather take comfort in knowing that sales are UP and margins are UP so profit must be???

Cash on the balance sheet is $95m OMG. Thats 25 cents per share. Back that out and MHJ is trading on a 7.6 P/E... and Canada is on a wicked growth path. Could be as big as aussie one day.

Its a buy!

OK - on reflection a really good result for a business that's struggling in AU and NZ buy buoyed by Canada .... and hopefully Canada sales will grow even faster next year than the 36% they did this year

ANZ going backwards and Canada growing just reinforces the need to use the $100m to get more growth ..... else when Canada starts maturing they'll be back to where they were a couple of years ago (like going nowhere)

Any hope market sees it as a tremendous effort and rewards them accordingly

[Waltzing]

if (Winner(n) () NZ.PercentageSales !< 0)
{
Result = 'Not less than Zero';
Brokers.outlook = 'BUY';
}

else

{

Brokers.outlook = 'SELL';
}

[winner69]

LEK - you weren't too far off with your A$580m sales forecast

You just didn't allow for changes in AUD

That 'boosted' the $A figure by about $8m so without that sales would have been $584m ... see you weren't too far off

[Waltzing]

next job will be to run store P&L to see what the profit per store is.

they need to run stronger discounts in AUS and NZ as the next 6 months Reserve banks will be upping their games.

[Rawz]

OK - on reflection a really good result for a business that's struggling in AU and NZ buy buoyed by Canada .... and hopefully Canada sales will grow even faster next year than the 36% they did this year

ANZ going backwards and Canada growing just reinforces the need to use the $100m to get more growth ..... else when Canada starts maturing they'll be back to where they were a couple of years ago (like going nowhere)

Any hope market sees it as a tremendous effort and rewards them accordingly

I agree Winner, they must use that cash or give say $50m of it back to shareholders. They cant just say they are "maintaining an elevated focus on capital investment opportunities"..
ANZ doing it tough on face value. But its also hard to get a true feel for how ANZ is performing with the new strategy. Have to trust management, the business is after all on a 36 month performance bull run.

Canada and Aus economies are roughly the same size ay. Could potentially see Canada double sales from here. Its performance has great momentum and clearly they are winning market share.

[Waltzing]

"potentially see Canada double sales "

over what time frame... certainly something very unusual is happening in canada...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

There were more than 10,000 lost store trading days in these FY figures (from Covid shutdowns) - which across 280 stores is the equivalent of over one month closure per store. So assuming there will be much less lost trading days in the new FY, we should see some growth from that without needing any additional store expansions.

I wouldn’t expect the equivalent of one month increase in sales of course (during those closures people were still buying online or delayed purchases until stores reopened) - but will help buffer headwinds.

encouraging that in the quarterly figure revenue growth was still solid in Australia (5.1%) and amazing in Canada (72.2%).

[Waltzing]

Good points LEK....

150 >= 170 over next 24 months easy.

deserves a high P/E except for inflation outlooks.

organic growth is better if you can do it else you end up paying to much for growth.

[Rawz]

"potentially see Canada double sales "

over what time frame... certainly something very unusual is happening in canada...




Over 3 to 5 years would be good.

Meanwhile ANZ holds ground.

And the bucket of cash is used to enter USA or Europe?

[percy]

A very credible result.
Although online sales are up 23% to 7.1% of total sales, I think there is still plenty of growth in this channel.
Perhaps up to over 30% of total sales.
I own shares in ATP in Aussie and I find this comment may be of interest.
"The online platform will continue to be the primary medium for the sale of pearls whilst increasing customer reach."
[And yes ATP's PE of 1.39 is extremely modest..lol.]

[Waltzing]

well you guys certainly picked it... and that means this stock is very under valued.

as they are saying this morning on CNBC .. the gucci and poochi trade is still going strong ...

13969

[winner69]

Market likes result …yes waltz it’s undervalued

Next week will be a very good one for the MHJ share price

[winner69]

My friend Emily sent me this so I thought I'd share it

Canada sales going well over many years - she wanted to show me that F23 Canada sales will be about $190m as recovery from Covid impacts continues and previous

I believe her, even those she's slightly in love with MHJ ... but I would have gone to a nice $200m

[Waltzing]

OH MY GOSH!!!!!

many thanks Winner(n>=)

[sb9]

Exciting times to look forward to, mostly what they've in store for the ever fattening cash balance. All will be revealed in a months time I guess, by which time sp should be past 1.50s range.

[Waltzing]

should be past 1.50s range

yeeeeesss .......

(Broker.Recomendation = 'DONT SELL')

[winner69]

May as well put this year as well .... something for MHJ to aspire to ...as LOV share price recovering well


Lovista - still a real opportunity in (potentially) volatile times ahead.....you could argue it is still a classic compound growth stock.

Why Lovisa (ASX: LOV) Is A Rare Gem Of An ASX Retail Stock

https://arichlife.com.au/why-lovisa-...-retail-stock/

[Waltzing]

"Rare Gem"

as previously stated reading the reports of the professional gem buyers is worth while.

also hearing the views of people in the fashion industry whose designs are often matched with jewellery is also interesting and sometimes it makes for some revelations about customer care .....:scared:

[Waltzing]

nothing much happening ...winner(n) the announcement hasnt moved the market... might be a bit of a bargain here..

[Rawz]

Market likes result …yes waltz it’s undervalued

Next week will be a very good one for the MHJ share price

where are all the buyers at?

[Waltzing]

market thinks the release of info was FAKE news!!!

imagine what it might trade at soon.. sub 120...?

bargain ...

[Rawz]

This always happens to MHJ. All through 2021 they would report amazing trading updates and the SP sat around for a week as if the market did believe it was fake news..

[Waltzing]

good smash up today ....

rather own diamonds than .....

dont smoke ... bad for your health...

dont sell these!! perhaps buys some more!!!

[Waltzing]

imagine picking them up at 1.10 again....

obviously market did not like the AUS, NZ numbers and doesnt know where Canada is. To close to the north pole and its all Santa clause girls in fur bikinis sled racing...

https://iditarod.com/#

Seriously SP could go lower...the markets hates it...

[winner69]

Waltz - maybe not FAKE news but I think they are their own worst enemies in making things seem extraordinary with their comparable sales and lost days and consecutive quarters of growth comments blah blah..... made out to be too good to be true, Written like a management ego trip === aren't we fantastic blah blah

Market often doesn't like that bull ****


Jeez, at the end of day FY sales up a miserable 7.3% and if you back out currency changes it was 5.8%

[Waltzing]

Winner(n) , classic comments!!!

any increase in sales is ok in this environment...if it ant staples!!

Hows Week Bix sales going this year any way?

Or how is the Aussi Oats business going this year ...

https://www.aegic.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/AEGIC-Opportunities-and-risks-for-the-Australian-oat-industry-2021.pdf

Since the world isnt in a Nuclear Winter we could be in the box seat for a big recovery one day .... soon or maybe not so soon....:t_up:

[winner69]

Winner(n) , classic comments!!!

any increase in sales is ok in this environment...if it ant staples!!

Hows Week Bix sales going this year any way?

Or how is the Aussi Oats business going this year ...

https://www.aegic.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/AEGIC-Opportunities-and-risks-for-the-Australian-oat-industry-2021.pdf

Since the world isnt in a Nuclear Winter we could be in the box seat for a big recovery one day .... soon or maybe not so soon....:t_up:

If they had included some pictures in the announcement it would have looked like a My Food Bag Prospectus .... hat beagle call it lipstick on a pag or something like that

[Rawz]

Waltz - maybe not FAKE news but I think they are their own worst enemies in making things seem extraordinary with their comparable sales and lost days and consecutive quarters of growth comments blah blah..... made out to be too good to be true, Written like a management ego trip === aren't we fantastic blah blah

Market often doesn't like that bull ****


Jeez, at the end of day FY sales up a miserable 7.3% and if you back out currency changes it was 5.8%

Good points W69. However with the $95m cash on the balance sheet it is still too cheap at these levels.

[Waltzing]

MHJ adverts on Rialto are brief but alluring but nothing would beat some hot Canucks in Fur bikinis Dog sledding....

Ive seen it in a DOCO... now MHJ just needs some Adverts of girl wearing Diamonds while mushing...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U70AcRYwVD4

Cant wait to get back to Sweden and see some the reel thing in action...

:t_up:

[winner69]

I would have thought the cash mountain would have higher than what they reported, esp seeing they’ve got that $12m from the credit book.

[Waltzing]

increased STOH that hasnt walked out the door around necks an on fingers ... or something in the P&L or someone got a big bonus!!!

or there was some very big discounting but that should show up in the margins..

Now where oh where is the mention of that big increase in the DIVIDEND!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENWcZ--7yQY

really need this Doctor to do the sales pitch in North America...

[Rawz]

I would have thought the cash mountain would have higher than what they reported, esp seeing they’ve got that $12m from the credit book.

Yeah whats going on..? last year they added $72m cash to the pile. This year only $23m??

no corporate welfare this year

[winner69]

This always happens to MHJ. All through 2021 they would report amazing trading updates and the SP sat around for a week as if the market did believe it was fake news..

Média says the market movers and shakers are on leave …school holidays

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Yeah whats going on..? last year they added $72m cash to the pile. This year only $23m??

no corporate welfare this year

partly from the large increase in the dividend. Interim dividend was 3.5c AUD per share, up from 1.5c last year (thats an extra $8 million paid out in 6 months vs last year)

Cash pile growth going forward should presumably roughly track net income less dividend payments and any large capital outlays/acquisitions..

[Waltzing]

will need to pay attention to the next financials and start to take the company seriously ...

[Bjauck]

Média says the market movers and shakers are on leave …school holidays Sounds like they are in the wrong job if they let the "market" make decisions for them if they turn their screens off for the school hols.

[Waltzing]

Juniors left on the desks and terminal log ins.

[winner69]

Hope Aussie punters are excited today and put a rocket under the MHJ share price

NZ punters not really interested ….not a NZ company any more and NZ have no affinity with them …leave that to the ram raiders eh

[winner69]

Everything seems to be going up today .... except MHJ

Was heading to 130 before the update and now below 120

Whats up

[Rawz]

The market is irrational!!!

[Waltzing]

yes this company is a fav for something in NZ.

has anyone done a study of RR in Auckland versus AUS major cities?

Auckland is now a very very Wild West city..... Notice the minister for police did not seem to think anything was a miss and that the problem has been there for decades?

well may be centuries then?

Well insured anyway and insurance prem's for Auckland going up fast then.

If this sell off continues we might see under 1.10... BARGAIN!!!!

Do these RR smoke anything before they raid? reminds one of Somalia...

Suggest some black hawks permanently circle the city day and night....

[winner69]

What the recent trend in MHJ sales looks like below

Hope we haven't reached the sell a bit more and make a bit less stage

F22 sales grew by A$40.5m - Canada +49m Aust down $8m odd and NZ flat (A$)

Future all depends on Canada and what they do with the cash mountain

[Rawz]

Winner where do you think npat will come in at? $48m ??

[Waltzing]

Quickly close any non performing stores in AUS and NZ .

Hope they grow organic's ... no dope smoking in the board room with Rob about... hes still on the bridge keeping the ship steady through the storm..

[Rawz]

The store closures will continue as more and more business heads online

[LaserEyeKiwi]

yes this company is a fav for something in NZ.

has anyone done a study of RR in Auckland versus AUS major cities?

Auckland is now a very very Wild West city..... Notice the minister for police did not seem to think anything was a miss and that the problem has been there for decades?

well may be centuries then?

Well insured anyway and insurance prem's for Auckland going up fast then.

If this sell off continues we might see under 1.10... BARGAIN!!!!

Do these RR smoke anything before they raid? reminds one of Somalia...

Suggest some black hawks permanently circle the city day and night....

I blame Netflix for adding Reservoir Dogs to its movie lineup…

[LaserEyeKiwi]

What the recent trend in MHJ sales looks like below

Hope we haven't reached the sell a bit more and make a bit less stage

F22 sales grew by A$40.5m - Canada +49m Aust down $8m odd and NZ flat (A$)

Future all depends on Canada and what they do with the cash mountain

It’s interesting they are continuing to close “underperforming” stores - and still getting these results, bodes well for margins.

[Waltzing]

"I blame Netflix for adding Reservoir Dogs to its movie lineup…"

classic !

yes they really need to be careful in the eye of the storm closing stores and expanding organically in Canada.

Obviously doing something right up there..

The buyers at MHJ are critical as well getting merchandise at the right price.

Sure they looking at the US market but its obviously a different market to any other.

[Waltzing]

1.10...1.10 ....1.10

cockpit warning ..

losing engine power ....

[winner69]

Winner where do you think npat will come in at? $48m ??

Rough numbers --- report $50.9m

But then they'll adjust a few things, there's the SaaS adjustment that seems messy and goodness what impairments will be and they'll come up with a comparable number

So could be anything but real reported npat should be higher than last years Restated NPAT

[Waltzing]

Winner(n) are we going to use probability or Staaaaandard Deviation or just random deviant spin the tail on the donkey for future NPAT and using what variables in the model....

just thinking what variables to include in a future model..


13999

[Waltzing]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YNsCLFWi_g


PULL UP! PULL UP! PULL UP! - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12jp5G1LWG0)

[dreamcatcher]

Increase in robberies..........

The burglary comes after a Michael Hill jewellery store in the Botany Town Centre was targeted by a group of thieves armed with tools and seen smashing glass cabinets earlier in the week. Multiple other Michael Hill stores across Auckland have been targeted over the past month, including in New Lynn, Newmarket and Takapuna.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/robbers-armed-with-weapons-target-west-auckland-michael-hill-store/U7L57XO523LJMYOLIIEFUVTMHY/

[Waltzing]

Sad stuff and staff arnt going to feel safe and some might be looking for new jobs....

something new needs dreaming up for security measures..

marshal law in auckland and black hawks .... prowler drones ...

[Waltzing]

who going to buy this stock today as the country get hit with the biggest crime wave in its history.

maybe time for a new name? New Za Za Za land...somewhere in the south pacific was a dream...

this stock could go under a buck...

down ramping ...

[winner69]

No ram raids overnight by sounds of it ..... share price rises

[Waltzing]

All Good then Winner(n) >= MHJ.SharePrices.Priceaction = Vars.MarketDailyMovementPercentage

[winner69]

Hey Waltz --- your buy finger starting to get itchy

Or you going to hang on for 100 again

[Waltzing]

they delist on NZX and move to canada...

now what fib numbers do you want to do ... our legal team is good at FIB... scary when the lawyers are better at FIB then the programming department....

lucky we hold no margin on these...

id say 1.00 is about right for risk...

market is in the bottoming out phase as the fed keeps going.

its really a case of waiting this winter ... only july...another 6 to 8 weeks

when business class air fares come down if they do it will signal the end of all the global train wrecks..

we are currently swamped in platform testing these days and keeping up with forums like these will diminish as europe draws closer.. count down has started to returning for the winters if the power is still on.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

14013

Another new week, another punch in the face.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/d0fe5002-1158-4684-b6a5-f1e5db6c277e

[clearasmud]

14013

Another new week, another punch in the face.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/d0fe5002-1158-4684-b6a5-f1e5db6c277e
Bgt another lot @au1$.
Lets hope they find a way to increase profits during a possible recession.

[Rawz]

It’s already priced as if profits are going to drop because of said recession (imo)

[ithaka]

Front page of the NZ Herald today...

"Many of the brazen aggravated robberies and burglaries have been directed at Auckland jewellery stores, with Michael Hill Jewellers a common target."

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Front page of the NZ Herald today...

"Many of the brazen aggravated robberies and burglaries have been directed at Auckland jewellery stores, with Michael Hill Jewellers a common target."

So plenty of insurance money heading MHJs way then it seems.

[Bjauck]

Front page of the NZ Herald today...

"Many of the brazen aggravated robberies and burglaries have been directed at Auckland jewellery stores, with Michael Hill Jewellers a common target." Any reasons proffered as to why they are a common target?

I wonder if it seems that way because they are high profile business (so the name registers with listener/viewers of a news broadcast?) In addition, they are targeted because they are a successful business with many branches in locations with lots of traffic (hence easier exits for fleeing criminals?)

[MauroNZ]

Any reasons proffered as to why they are a common target?

I wonder if it seems that way because they are high profile business (so the name registers with listener/viewers of a news broadcast?) In addition, they are targeted because they are a successful business with many branches in locations with lots of traffic (hence easier exits for fleeing criminals?)

Maybe they are learning that you can't track jewellery like you could track other items despite security cameras, alarms and any others security measures.

[ralph]

[QUOTE=Bjauck;968087]Any reasons proffered as to why they are a common target?

Probably cause they sell trash & only the bottom end of the criminal network would be interested in that.
I don't think Raffles would would be interested in a 9 carat earing worth 5 bucks & retailed at 50 $

[Waltzing]

value added .... good salesman ship ...:t_up:

[ralph]

value added .... good salesman ship ...:t_up:
For sure great for shareholders :eek2: & Salesman/persons alike

[winner69]

Any reasons proffered as to why they are a common target?

I wonder if it seems that way because they are high profile business (so the name registers with listener/viewers of a news broadcast?) In addition, they are targeted because they are a successful business with many branches in locations with lots of traffic (hence easier exits for fleeing criminals?)

Maybe lax security measures make it easy target

[Waltzing]

"Maybe lax security measures make it easy target"

obviously display cabinets will need stronger glass and thats might be a lot of money...

but they have reserves to cater for it and prehaps the idea of expanding at the moment is a bad idea....

better management of protecting product and staff is the highest P right now...

in terms of margins the gem buyers and value added contractors knowing the business has rewarded shareholders handsomely..

[Beau]

value added .... good salesman ship ...:t_up:

Reads like an unhappy customer must of missed out on a sale or certain type of earring.

[Waltzing]

"Reads like an unhappy customer must of missed out on a sale or certain type of earring."

M Hill assumes all his customers are happy esp in canada....

DISCO: not a customer...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9v36KD4oic

[Bjauck]

[QUOTE=Bjauck;968087]Any reasons proffered as to why they are a common target?

Probably cause they sell trash & only the bottom end of the criminal network would be interested in that.
I don't think Raffles would would be interested in a 9 carat earing worth 5 bucks & retailed at 50 $ Surely that underlines the basis of most of the modern value added capitalist economy, whether services or goods. A product the may be worth only the precious metal melted value to you, is worth a considerable premium to another. MHJ tries to place the right item, with the right design, in the right right market?

[Bjauck]

Maybe lax security measures make it easy target Maybe they should sell on an agency basis through South Auckland dairies. Some of them have become like Fort Knox with bollards outside, shutters, smoke bombs and tough looking assistants! Might need to reduce their retail premiums though as the retail experience would not be the same...

[winner69]

Nice story in NBR about MHJ -- almost brought tears to my eyes

Michael Hill in no rush to re-enter United States

https://www.nbr.co.nz/business/michael-hill-in-no-rush-to-re-enter-united-states/

Maybe behind a paywall

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Nice story in NBR about MHJ -- almost brought tears to my eyes

Michael Hill in no rush to re-enter United States

https://www.nbr.co.nz/business/michael-hill-in-no-rush-to-re-enter-united-states/

Maybe behind a paywall

I smell capital return!

[Rawz]

Looks like $100m is going to be thrown at Europe then?

Can’t let Lovisa have all the fun over there with their expansion

[winner69]

Looks like $100m is going to be thrown at Europe then?

Can’t let Lovisa have all the fun over there with their expansion

All that cash must starting to burn a hole in their pockets

Losing value as each day pasts

[Rawz]

All that cash must starting to burn a hole in their pockets

Losing value as each day pasts
Worth about $93.45m of last years money now.

Come on MHJ, give us the money, I’ll spend it better

[Waltzing]

they will expand canada and give holders a SPECIAL DIV?

[Waltzing]

the bad news is out on the 26th

sell now quick .....:scared:

panic now... not later .... or is that panic now think later ...

:eek2:

DISCO: not sure ...

oh yep forgot they are till buying in the frozen wastes of Canada.... it all good according to WINNER()..

[winner69]

Always a good sign when the CEO files an Appendix 7Y with a greater interest disclosed

Skin in the game and all that crap supposedly means they work harder and better

[Jay]

Always a good sign when the CEO files an Appendix 7Y with a greater interest disclosed

Skin in the game and all that crap supposedly means they work harder and better

Or they buy thinking most people will think the above and start buying and pushing the price up, then sell to pay for a new deck/car etc etc:)

[winner69]

Just an administrative 'oversight' - bad Emily - make sure never happens again

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/396684/376199.pdf

[Waltzing]

Winner() do we expect massive performance results ?

[winner69]

Winner() do we expect massive performance results ?

If they manage a few ‘oversights’ maybe npat of $54m

That be good

But hope they haven’t overlooked the $90m in the bank …but ‘oversight’ etc might be part of company culture …that’s a worry

[Waltzing]

It appears they dont want to part with some of the 90...

Rob knows that a special DIV is really the best option right now and a BIG one!!

[clearasmud]

If they manage a few ‘oversights’ maybe npat of $54m

That be good

But hope they haven’t overlooked the $90m in the bank …but ‘oversight’ etc might be part of company culture …that’s a worry
We were expecting about $40m weren't we?
And not a lot of growth.

[Rawz]

We were expecting about $40m weren't we?
And not a lot of growth.

maybe $48m?? aus. but happy to run with Winners $54m

[MauroNZ]

A comment from someone who doesn't do much of research like most of the people here (mainly as I prefer index funds and go back to work as Warren Buffet suggest). However as having invested in MHJ since 2013 at $1.28 share value hasn't really done much if we compare to other companies.

It isn't a substantial amount that I couldn't live without it but almost 10 years after it makes me think:

-Is this a long term one?.
-Should just make the most of the ups and downs? (I don't consider myself a trader).
-Aside from covid hasn't fluctuated much, which was an unexpected event and nothing to do with usual market behaviour (unless I miss something).
-As it isn't a big dividend payer, like better options out there why do we hold it?.

Again, being curious/thinking lately and seems their digital strategy is a bit slow, took I don't know how long to resolve the IRD dispute and still unsure if it was a good decision to exit the US but maybe it was. And in this specific point it made me think exactly how MFT persisted in Australia until they had found out their way.

As I said at the beginning I don't do the deep research as the majority here and now with a new baby likely to keep without changes.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

A comment from someone who doesn't do much of research like most of the people here (mainly as I prefer index funds and go back to work as Warren Buffet suggest). However as having invested in MHJ since 2013 at $1.28 share value hasn't really done much if we compare to other companies.

It isn't a substantial amount that I couldn't live without it but almost 10 years after it makes me think:

-Is this a long term one?.
-Should just make the most of the ups and downs? (I don't consider myself a trader).
-Aside from covid hasn't fluctuated much, which was an unexpected event and nothing to do with usual market behaviour (unless I miss something).
-As it isn't a big dividend payer, like better options out there why do we hold it?.

Again, being curious/thinking lately and seems their digital strategy is a bit slow, took I don't know how long to resolve the IRD dispute and still unsure if it was a good decision to exit the US but maybe it was. And in this specific point it made me think exactly how MFT persisted in Australia until they had found out their way.

As I said at the beginning I don't do the deep research as the majority here and now with a new baby likely to keep without changes.

Note they recently changed their dividend payout policy - are now a much bigger dividend payer, hence why the interim dividend payment back in March was 3.5c instead of the previous 1.5c they usually offered. Now it is set to be between 50-75% of net income, but with allowance to sometimes go above or below this range as circumstances dictate.

I personally would wait until the upcoming earnings before making any changes, but thats just me.

They are doing very well in Canada now, and company wide run a much leaner efficient operation than even just a few years ago, and this is with tens of thousands of lost store days to covid closures.

Have a browse of the recent trading updates etc at least to reacquaint yourself if you haven’t already. https://www.nzx.com/companies/MHJ/announcements

[MauroNZ]

Note they recently changed their dividend payout policy - are now a much bigger dividend payer, hence why the interim dividend payment back in March was 3.5c instead of the previous 1.5c they usually offered. Now it is set to be between 50-75% of net income, but with allowance to sometimes go above or below this range as circumstances dictate.

I personally would wait until the upcoming earnings before making any changes, but thats just me.

They are doing very well in Canada now, and company wide run a much leaner efficient operation than even just a few years ago, and this is with tens of thousands of lost store days to covid closures.

Have a browse of the recent trading updates etc at least to reacquaint yourself if you haven’t already. https://www.nzx.com/companies/MHJ/announcements


Thanks LEK, I appreciate it, I'm going to read it.

[winner69]

Jeez this a lot of words to say we’ve got a new building -

Michael Hill International Limited (ASX/NZX:MHJ) announces the relocation of its global headquarters to new purpose-built leased premises. The new state of the art building is home to the Company’s global leadership team and functions, technology enabled Australasian distribution centre and reimagined artisanal jewellery workshop. The facility provides a contemporary, dynamic, and productive environment, strategically aligned to Michael Hill’s aspirational brand journey.

Love words like ‘state of the art’ / ‘global leadership’ / ‘technology enabled’ / ‘reimagined’ / ‘artisanal ‘ / ‘contemporary’ / ‘dynamic’ / ‘strategically aligned’ / ‘aspirational brand journey’

I don’t think I could have better …..No doubt gave management the warm fuzzies

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Jeez this a lot of words to say we’ve got a new building -

Michael Hill International Limited (ASX/NZX:MHJ) announces the relocation of its global headquarters to new purpose-built leased premises. The new state of the art building is home to the Company’s global leadership team and functions, technology enabled Australasian distribution centre and reimagined artisanal jewellery workshop. The facility provides a contemporary, dynamic, and productive environment, strategically aligned to Michael Hill’s aspirational brand journey.

Love words like ‘state of the art’ / ‘global leadership’ / ‘technology enabled’ / ‘reimagined’ / ‘artisanal ‘ / ‘contemporary’ / ‘dynamic’ / ‘strategically aligned’ / ‘aspirational brand journey’

I don’t think I could have better …..No doubt gave management the warm fuzzies

Its a box!

(this is from Apple Maps - wonder how long that for lease sing was out for before MHJ moved on it)

14064

[Waltzing]

There goes the special DIV!!!

New furniuture and bean bags!!!

Coffee machines... TV's... automatic massage chairs ... roof top swimming pool.... sun deck ... facial recognition security... anything missing?

[winner69]

Its a box!

(this is from Apple Maps - wonder how long that for lease sing was out for before MHJ moved on it)

14064

Wonder what the rent is?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/irongate-group-acquires-office-building-in-brisbane-with-10-year-lease-1030726500

[winner69]

There goes the special DIV!!!

New furniuture and bean bags!!!

Coffee machines... TV's... automatic massage chairs ... roof top swimming pool.... sun deck ... facial recognition security... anything missing?

Got to do something with $100m eh waltz

[Bjauck]

Got to do something with $100m eh waltz
If you aspire to sell a lot of shiny stuff, you have to have nice shiny offices too, I guess.

[Bjauck]

Its a box!

(this is from Apple Maps - wonder how long that for lease sing was out for before MHJ moved on it)

14064
It may be, but if you sell it is as state of the art and strategically aligned to aspirations, it becomes so much more….

[Waltzing]

Use to be a jeweller next door and he made great stuff in the garage .....

probably wasnt as much fun as having a complete studio with roof top pool though....

is there a pool in this new one? champagne bar close by?

where is the annual year end shareholder swing ding?

Winner() if there is no special DIV after they all got a special office where they are cracking open the french champagne then the annual share holder party needs to be a bloody good one!!!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Wonder what the rent is?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/irongate-group-acquires-office-building-in-brisbane-with-10-year-lease-1030726500

According to that article its 5% yield on a $36m purchase price - so $1.8m annual lease for MHJ perhaps? (If that 5% yield is gross). Article also mentions 3% annual increase.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Owner of 45 malls throughout Aus/NZ reports big growth in revenue through Jewellery stores for first 6 months of year:

14086

[Waltzing]

LEK , thats is very interesting DOD ... Digging Out Data...

"Over here, Over Here!!!"

[Waltzing]

Bear market rally has lasted 8 weeks.. now rolling over.

next 12 months will be very interesting and OIL and GAS are going to be the winners but if this little side show can continue to pay the DIV and even increase it well at least it will hold water.

Another one got HIT in the wild west town of Auckland.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Yes - in one way its comforting to hear that growth in the Australian Jewellery sector is everywhere, not just at MHJ. Notable given the market is currently valuing MHJ on an ex-cash basis like it’s going to have a reduction in sales/profits.

Important to remember of course that the figures above are all for in person mall shopping, and MHJs own figures include online sales. The mall figures will be a bit more lumpy vs total MHJ figures given when there were store closures in prior comparable period (due to covid), retailers experienced an increase in online sales somewhat to compensate.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

As we head into the full year results announcement on Friday, worth republishing the preliminary results already announced via the July trading update:

KEY POINTS


• Continued positive quarterly sales growth – For the quarter, all store sales were up 17.0% and same store sales were up 2.1% against prior year.
• Strong full year sales – For the year, all store sales were up 7.3% (with lost store trading days of ~10,000 in both FY21 and FY22) and same store sales were up 8.0%, against prior year.
• Sustained margin expansion – For the year, margin improvement has continued with a lift of between 150 to 350bps in all markets and channels against FY21.
• Strong EBIT growth – The Company anticipates a FY22 Group comparable EBIT of between $60m to $63m (FY21: $56.6m).
• Record digital sales – Omni-channel initiatives continue to deliver strong growth, resulting in another record year, with sales exceeding $40m, an increase of 23% on prior year. Digital sales now represent 7.1% of total sales (FY21: 6.3%).
• Brilliance by Michael Hill – The loyalty program, a key enabler for growth, now exceeds 1.4 million members.
• Strong balance sheet – Disciplined working capital management maintained throughout the year with no adverse
supply chain impacts on stock levels, and a healthy net cash position at year end of ~$95m (FY21: $72.4m).
• Store portfolio management – Three under-performing stores permanently closed in Australia during the quarter, with a network total of 280 stores across all markets at the end of the year (FY21: 285).

14088

[LaserEyeKiwi]

The outlook & any update on capital return plans announced on Friday will probably be the biggest influence on near term stock price movement I am guessing.

Outlook wise, I have some optimism that if they can get through FY23 without the 10,000+ lost store trading days they experienced in FY21 & FY22, that things should be looking rather rosy. 10,000 lost days across 280 stores is 36 days lost on average per store - or essentially 10% of a year! (We are already 2 months into FY23 and there hasn’t been a single covid closure day yet that I’m aware of for MHJ)

Capital return: lets see how that ~$100m net cash now sitting in the kitty is going to go to good use!

The ex-cash Price/earnings multiple now somewhere between 7x-8x.

[clearasmud]

I know they have cash but it's prepayments.

[Waltzing]

Great summing up LEK.

Yes P/E is low but most retailers are low at the Mo..

WHS is very low for high Div% ...

But the market says Stagnation Nation....

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I know they have cash but it's prepayments.

What gives you that impression?

[clearasmud]

What gives you that impression?
Contract liabilities are $83m,largely prepayments for future services.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Contract liabilities are $83m,largely prepayments for future services.

You are talking about the accounting entry for the “Professional Care Plans” which is very high margin deferred revenue product (staff receive bonuses for selling this as its effectively nearly all profit, as the “service” is provided by staff as part of their day to day operations, and most customers don't end up using any of it). The company collects the full fee at the time of sale, but under accounting rules can’t recognize the revenue upfront - it’s recognized over the life of the service contract - so has to create a liability entry for the “prepayment of a service” which costs MHJ next to nothing to supply. Every reporting period a portion of the liability owing is recognized as revenue, but is replaced with more deferred revenue from new plans sold.

so no its not a liability that costs MHJ any cashflow on recognition, its just an accounting line.

[Rawz]

Good stuff LEK. You are a true value investor.

Tough times ahead for MHJ but its a solid hold due to the fortress balance sheet and the absolute roll they have been on lately, true momentum. Internal moral and culture etc etc must be at all time highs with the employees. And they have that new office to enjoy too. Good on them.

Whatever happens over the next 3-6 quarters MHJ will sell their fair share of gold/silver in NZ/AUS and take market share in Canada.

Going through tough times as shareholders we have the dividend to enjoy and coming out of tough times MHJ will excel and take off (again)

[sb9]

Let's hope they've got some nice goodies for us all tomorrow. And an element of unexpected positive surprise of some sort...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Just realized the results will be released after close of ASX today - so wont see them until this evening.

[winner69]

Just realized the results will be released after close of ASX today - so wont see them until this evening.

A bit weird eh

Hope they not playing the announce results after close on Friday and hope nobody will notice trick

Probably because they having an afternoon Board meeting instead of a morning one

[Waltzing]

WHS pulled that one last time they had a terrible result...

last time it was a monday morning.......

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/377725

with the new house party pad it better be a good one ....

[nztx]

Will there be a new Advert series on Michael's distant past life on MHJ's origins to celebrate the results ? ;)

Will they need to borrow TRA's Tina to brighten it up ? ;)

Rings anywhere / everywhere might be a good jingle :)

[bull....]

they have just said they have significant cost associated with newly installed security measures

Michael Hill 'significantly' ramps up security after spate of Auckland break-ins

Fyfe’s statement went on to say the company was working closely with the police.
“[We have] made a number of changes to our security protocols and have further improvements being rolled out.”
The improvements, according to Fyfe, had seen an increase in the number of alleged offenders being apprehended and prosecuted.
He wouldn’t comment on the nature of the improvements due to security reasons, but said they had been “a significant investment for the business”.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/300670125/michael-hill-significantly-ramps-up-security-after-spate-of-auckland-breakins

[LaserEyeKiwi]

they have just said they have significant cost associated with newly installed security measures

Michael Hill 'significantly' ramps up security after spate of Auckland break-ins

Fyfe’s statement went on to say the company was working closely with the police.
“[We have] made a number of changes to our security protocols and have further improvements being rolled out.”
The improvements, according to Fyfe, had seen an increase in the number of alleged offenders being apprehended and prosecuted.
He wouldn’t comment on the nature of the improvements due to security reasons, but said they had been “a significant investment for the business”.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/300670125/michael-hill-significantly-ramps-up-security-after-spate-of-auckland-breakins


Noticed this in central wellington yesterday (Lambton Quay store had a security guard).

There insurance company probably kicked up a stink

[LaserEyeKiwi]

A bit weird eh

Hope they not playing the announce results after close on Friday and hope nobody will notice trick

Probably because they having an afternoon Board meeting instead of a morning one

And there is a investor call on Monday morning as well. A bit strange. Friday night: here after the results, you can ask us any queries about them in 3 days time.

[sb9]

And there is a investor call on Monday morning as well. A bit strange. Friday night: here after the results, you can ask us any queries about them in 3 days time.

May be give us time to digest all of the news over weekend and prepare for questions on Monday conf call :p

[winner69]

Person who posts announcement gone home to enjoy he weekend ..... possibly a Manly fan poor bugger

No more announcements ....might have to wait to Monday after all

[Waltzing]

Last time was a monday morning. Security a good thing..

Auckland a south pacific wild west town.

The well to do will move to Nelson.

or the BOP.

[winner69]

Suppose after close Friday does mean Monday

LEK/Rawz we’re full of anticipation …..hope they didn’t give Friday drinks / night out a misscwaiting for the announcement.

[Rawz]

I’m hoping to see a $150m acquisition in Europe. $100m cash and $50m debt funded. EPS accretive with strong growth opportunities across the continent.

If I don’t see this in the headline, I won’t bother reading. I’ll pop back later Monday to check the STr thoughts. However not much point… We know the drill..

Aus/NZ is a mature market and Canada is growing like mad.

It’s a solid hold!

[Waltzing]

"$150m acquisition in Europe. $100m cash and $50m debt funded"

well thats adventure wild alps yonder....

what experience do they have doing business in europe....

maybe canada is just a one off thing for a while...

its true there isnt a bling shop in landskrona but there is a very nice special coffee and chocolates shop..

[sb9]

Person who posts announcement gone home to enjoy he weekend ..... possibly a Manly fan poor bugger

No more announcements ....might have to wait to Monday after all

Looks like that person is having long weekend...

[winner69]

Looks like that person is having long weekend...

Still in bed in Brisbane

What time is the analyst call now?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

“End of year results and associated materials will be available on Monday morning.”

response I got on Sunday.

[Rawz]

Buy back incoming. 5%.
And will leave enough money in the kitty to "pursue acquisition opportunities in the jewelry sector, which meet our strict strategic and investment criteria"

[Rawz]

Buy back incoming. 5%.
And will leave enough money in the kitty to "pursue acquisition opportunities in the jewelry sector, which meet our strict strategic and investment criteria"

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/397791

Key Financial Results
• Group operating revenue increased by 7.0% to $595.2m (FY21: $556.5m), with ~10,000 lost store trading days in each of FY22 and FY21.
• Comparable earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) increased by 11.1% to $62.9m (FY21: $56.6m).
• Statutory net profit after tax increased by 13.9% to $46.7m (FY21: $41.0m1).
• Group gross margin increased by 200 bps to 64.7% (FY21: 62.7%), underpinned by our strategic initiatives.
• Healthy inventory levels to support elevated sales at $181.5m (FY21: $171.2m).
• Balance sheet benefited from strong operating cashflows and sale of the Canadian credit book, resulting in a closing cash position of $95.8m (FY21: $72.4m).
• Final dividend of AU4.0 cents per share declared, delivering total dividends for the year of AU7.5 cents per share.
• Board announces launch of an on-market share buy-back of up to 5% of the Company’s issued capital. Operational Performance
• Group same store sales were up 8.0% for the year, with Canada +11.3%, New Zealand +8.9% and Australia +4.2%.
• Digital sales increased by 23% to a record $42m, representing 7.1% of total sales, up from 6.3% last year.
• New pure play brand Medley delivered over $1m in sales for its first full year of trade.
• Loyalty strategy continues to deliver with 76% of sales from members – Brilliance by Michael Hill now over 1.4m members (FY21: ~800,000).
• Extensive H1 temporary store closures in NSW, VIC and Auckland, culminated in 10,020 lost trading days for the year (FY21: 10,447).
• One new store opened and six under-performing stores were closed during the year, giving a network total of 280 stores at year end (FY21: 285). Current Trading Update
• In the first eight weeks of FY23, the Company has delivered strong early performance, with Group all store sales up 13.4% against the same period in FY21 (a more meaningful reflection of current performance, due to temporary store closures in FY22).

[Waltzing]

yonder green fields and looks like steady as it goes and under valued...

you local good old boys are arithmetic bean counters...

winners ....

"AU7.5 cents" thats the sound of cold hard cash .....

[nztx]

Good to see that Frank got in to fully impute things .. makes a change on past years :)

[Waltzing]

"In the first eight weeks of FY23, the Company has delivered strong early performance, with Group all store sales up 13.4% against the same period in FY21 (a more meaningful reflection of current performance, due to temporary store closures in FY22)."

Thats the sound of gold and diamonds hitting the bank account of MHJ and your bank accounts and Net worth....

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Nice.

Very happy to see a buyback - 5% buyback on top of the AU7.5c divi adds up to a 10%+ annual capital return to shareholders at current share price.

Global online store to go live before Christmas.

Expanding online to Quebec with french local language offering .

Medley now delivering - I gather from their website it is being promoted as a “Founded in Australia” online only business to start with.

The outlook was very nice to hear:


In the first eight weeks of FY23, the Company has delivered strong early performance, with Group all store sales up 18.5% against FY22. As this period in FY22 was impacted by store closures in Australia, a more meaningful reflection of the FY23 all store performance is up 13.4% against the same period in FY21 (total stores FY23: 280 vs FY21: 289). In addition, gross margin has also remained strong in the first eight weeks of trade.

Also worth noting they are going back to half year trading updates now that stability has returned.

[Rawz]

I was saying the other day how the culture must be awesome within MHJ. Its so important.

“I am particularly proud of our people and the culture that we continue to build at Michael Hill – a high performance team across all levels, with an energy and passion that underpins our growth agenda. This culture is best evidenced by the sensational performance from our Canadian team in FY22 delivering huge lifts in productivity, sales and margin.”

Happy holder. This is a long term hold?? cannot be?

[Waltzing]

that sound is the tinkle of cash coming your way...

from your friendly MHJ cabin crew, please put your seat belts on and your tray tables up .....

champagne will be served when we reach cruising altitude ....

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Will be interesting to see how the global online deliveries will develop. Will provide good data for MHJ about future markets to enter with brick-and-mortar stores - or maybe even just with local marketing spend to support a pure online model.

Amusing the NBR article a couple of weeks ago saying they will not re-enter USA market, and now here we are with an announcement of an online sales presence in not just the USA, but everywhere.

[Waltzing]

Will the french go for some in the sun aussie bling next ?

Which french champagne will be served with that and will MHJ start sponsering some concerts in paris ?

[sb9]

Buy back incoming. 5%.
And will leave enough money in the kitty to "pursue acquisition opportunities in the jewelry sector, which meet our strict strategic and investment criteria"

Once the US markets are back on track, we may test the previous highs 1.50s achieved at beginning of this year.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

So 5% of outstanding stock is 19.4 million shares.

So buyback will be somewhere north of $20 million AUD.

Average daily volume across NZ & ASX trading for MHJ is 140k per day (29k on NZX, 111k on ASX).

19.4 million sahres bought back across roughly 250 trading days in a year = 77.6k shares repurchased each day, or over 55% of the current average daily trading volume.

Seems like it is going to have quite a substantial impact.

[Rawz]

So 5% of outstanding stock is 19.4 million shares.

So buyback will be somewhere north of $20 million AUD.

Average daily volume across NZ & ASX trading for MHJ is 140k per day (29k on NZX, 111k on ASX).

19.4 million sahres bought back across roughly 250 trading days in a year = 77.6k shares repurchased each day, or over 55% of the current average daily trading volume.

Seems like it is going to have quite a substantial impact.

Cool aye LEK. SP be back to $1.50 in no time

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Cool aye LEK. SP be back to $1.50 in no time

And also of course a 5% lift to EPS on the same amount of net income.

[Waltzing]

With increasing dividends 1.50 could be the next level of support.

get your skates on.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Moving up nicely!

perfect timing given the broad market sell off

[Waltzing]

MHJ is not an insto stock. Might be able to pick up some at under 1.30 as the buy back doesnt kick in for weeks.

and its a hated stock.....

MR P was kicking it in the gully's and that tells you how hated it was...:t_up:

[winner69]

Waltz - share price over 2 bucks come this time next year - could be a market darling

Bit worried about this in the presentation - doesn't make sense and says first 8 weeks sales F23 are lower than F21 and that's a meaningful comparison

In comparison to FY21, a more meaningful reflection of FY23 performance, Group all store sales were up +13.4% (total stores FY23: 280 vs FY21: 289)

They have so many different metrics and along with a lot financial jiggery pokery I think they even confuse themselves at times ..... but heck it's a good story that the first 8 weeks sales are up 18.5%

Share price 2 bucks ...here we come

[Waltzing]

winner(*) could you please wait till after the buyback starts ... honestly ....

they count stones dont they?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Waltz - share price over 2 bucks come this time next year - could be a market darling

Bit worried about this in the presentation - doesn't make sense and says first 8 weeks sales F23 are lower than F21 and that's a meaningful comparison

In comparison to FY21, a more meaningful reflection of FY23 performance, Group all store sales were up +13.4% (total stores FY23: 280 vs FY21: 289)

They have so many different metrics and along with a lot financial jiggery pokery I think they even confuse themselves at times ..... but heck it's a good story that the first 8 weeks sales are up 18.5%

Share price 2 bucks ...here we come

I read that as being first 8 weeks of FY23 being 13.4% higher than FY21 (even with 9 less stores)

That’s how it was just stated on the conference call as well.

call is live now: https://web.lumiconnect.com/#/339859459

[Rawz]

Waltz - share price over 2 bucks come this time next year - could be a market darling

Bit worried about this in the presentation - doesn't make sense and says first 8 weeks sales F23 are lower than F21 and that's a meaningful comparison

In comparison to FY21, a more meaningful reflection of FY23 performance, Group all store sales were up +13.4% (total stores FY23: 280 vs FY21: 289)

They have so many different metrics and along with a lot financial jiggery pokery I think they even confuse themselves at times ..... but heck it's a good story that the first 8 weeks sales are up 18.5%

Share price 2 bucks ...here we come

how does it say its lower, W69?

Im reading:
first 8 weeks of FY23 is up 18.5% compared to FY22, and;
first 8 weeks of FY23 is up 13.4% compared to FY21

However this jiggry pokery is probably aimed at the likes of me lol. Can you explain why we need to be concerned.
Even if selling less we need to remember they have been selling less and making more since FY17. So sales drop isnt alarming for MHJ

[winner69]

I read that as being first 8 week s of FY23 being 13.4% higher than FY21 (even with 9 less stores)

That’s how it was just stated on the conference call as well.

call is live now: https://web.lumiconnect.com/#/339859459

My bad .... I read the 280 v 289 as $ sales ..... instead of store numbers

So 6.5% pa growth is probably more reflective of 'underlying' activity currently

But F23 sales are going to be huge v F22 so all OK

What else you learn from the call

[LaserEyeKiwi]

What on earth - there are NO analysts on the call. Zero questions.

honestly the NZ & ASX are a joke sometimes.

EDIT: finally some late questions

[Rawz]

- they say its tough trading environment but margins are holding up and "Margins are sustainable"

- buyback. SP is undervalued. They will monitor price action but no specific restriction on dollars spent to get the 5%. no restriction on price to pay.

- acquisition. reviewing opportunities. "very active in the space"

- sales. Momentum continuing from last year across all markets.

- Inventory levels will increase over the years but at a lower rate than sales. ROI will improve.

All very good aye. I didnt realise how big Quebec was!! 8m population- wow. As a comparison to NZ.. lots of growth ahead

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Buyback - 2 week wait before allowed to start buyback, confirmed 5% is going to be in the 20 million range.

Gross margins - confident of being able to sustain current high gross margin %

Inventory - increase in inventory amount, but as a percentage of turnover it is actually less.

International online rollout - minimal capex and inventory required to support the expansion.

Capex budget: $30m Capex for FY23, mostly going to physcial stores as capex was deffered during last 2 years due to covid.

[Waltzing]

basically you cant have enough of these....

inflation spoofing ... mean proofing ....

nothing like gold and diamonds in times of inflation.. what if crypto flowers all go wilty wilty and people buy jewels instead....

if you would like to make a huge profit and sell now at say 1.10?

as global nuclear war is not far away and you should all go to the beach this summer and get very drunk.. but dont swim and drink...

[Waltzing]

ha ha price dropping!!!! truelly dont you love the market!!!!

yes sell this shocking dog of a stock.

that call was all FAKE news!!!

kick it in the Gully's.... go on ...

gosh we will have to start buying again soon...

those english spives on the call... what a limey bunch of sales men...

where is MR P when you need him....:eek2:

[Rawz]

by rights this announcement should have been a shocker like RBD. They shouldn't be so confident and talking about growth!! Come on they are taking the pi$$ out of the market. its like the sun is setting in the east, everything is backwards.

Growth, buybacks, acquisitions, margins, profit, sales all increasing.

wow what a company!!! happy holder

[Waltzing]

"Come on they are taking the pi$$ out of the market."

classic !!

every other company is pissing it pants and these guys are drinking champange at the new party HQ and pissing champane over the balcony!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1sFbvRY_oY

[sb9]

What on earth - there are NO analysts on the call. Zero questions.

honestly the NZ & ASX are a joke sometimes.

EDIT: finally some late questions

Yeah, had similar experience last time when I joined the call. Didn't bother this time, btw any interesting questions?

[Waltzing]

The spives from the Uk are right out of the pits on the london markets....

Interesting questions? its the tone of confidence in a sea of red by comparison to some others.

Spives just classic spives in the business.

They know they are an under valued stock.

orders building ... expect the family to sell down some stock as the buy back goes on.

[winner69]

........

However this jiggry pokery is probably aimed at the likes of me lol. Can you explain why we need to be concerned.
Even if selling less we need to remember they have been selling less and making more since FY17. So sales drop isnt alarming for MHJ

Nothing aimed at you rawz

I've decided to ignore restatements / comparable EBITs and all the other stuff they come up and just work on Stat NPBT and Stat NPAT and cash flows .... forget the past and only look forward eh

So a good year for MHJ - profit increased from $41.0m $46.7m and that's pretty good

Hoping for NPAT $65m in F23 (as a starting point)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Up 6% on ASX. Bit of price disconnection going on between the two listings currently.

[Waltzing]

should pay for my tickets back first class then to Copenhagen in 2023...

Lot of parties on the balcony then ... what we want to see...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2AC41dglnM

[Waltzing]

Buy some more winner(>=underpriced)....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2AC41dglnM

[Rawz]

Nothing aimed at you rawz

I've decided to ignore restatements / comparable EBITs and all the other stuff they come up and just work on Stat NPBT and Stat NPAT and cash flows .... forget the past and only look forward eh

So a good year for MHJ - profit increased from $41.0m $46.7m and that's pretty good

Hoping for NPAT $65m in F23 (as a starting point)


$65M NPAT!!?? is that AU$? cant be., What sales are you expecting?

[Waltzing]

getting another 2 of these or so is going to be hard when they buying back...

better buy now when you can.... Chick teeth soon....

hes expecting them to kick the door in... hes thunder stuck.....like the market is going to be.

[Rawz]

at this rate Percy might be a buyer? He knows his stuff when it comes to jewelry retailing

[Waltzing]

everyone will want to buy now as gold fever strikes.

The chart looks set to rise with a nice lower bound over the last 2 years moving up to the right with a retracement and now set to strike higher.

Winner was head lighted on full beam and is now throwing out past performance figures and is chasing the piper....

so much for the dog... looks like its having a new day...

cant ave nough these :t_up: :t_up: :t_up:

go on be devils... join the par e... "put your hand on the scales"... (margin call)

[winner69]

I've got a new financial advisor ..... and outfit called OpenAI

I asked if buying Michael Hill shares was a good move .... the AI machine said 'Yes, buy Michael Hill shares if your investment goal is to make superior investment returns and you have a high tolerance for risk'

Pretty clever machine eh

I did test them out by asking greyhounds make get pets and the machine said 1. They are low-maintenance.
2. They are loving and loyal companions.... that showed me the machine is pretty clever

[percy]

I've got a new financial advisor ..... and outfit called OpenAI

I asked if buying Michael Hill shares was a good move .... the AI machine said 'Yes, buy Michael Hill shares if your investment goal is to make superior investment returns and you have a high tolerance for risk'

Pretty clever machine eh

I did test them out by asking greyhounds make get pets and the machine said 1. They are low-maintenance.
2. They are loving and loyal companions.... that showed me the machine is pretty clever
The real test is what they think of Beagles....?....lol.

[winner69]

I asked the machine 'What does percy think of beagle'

The machine said 'Percy, thinks beagles are the best!'

This machine is one very perceptive machine

[percy]

I asked the machine 'What does percy think of beagle'

The machine said 'Percy, thinks beagles are the best!'

This machine is one very perceptive machine

What a wonderful machine...lol

[winner69]

What a wonderful machine...lol

yep,machines are getting cleverer and more wonderful by the day

[Waltzing]

did winner dare ask for guidance for FYTD 2023?

notice the increase in marketing expenses and some increase in people costs.

even if growth slows if still looks like a strong dividend story.

[Waltzing]

come on winner(*PurchaseOrders) = 'BUYMORE'

no one seems to want these incredible bargain shares on offer.....

2 dollars ?

looks like the new idea is to use OPEN AI.... as a guide to the future .... since billions of people converging all over the planet is going to create ? mayhem.....:scared:

[dreamcatcher]

[QUOTE= 2 dollars ? [/QUOTE]

Gee whizz Waltzing Lovisa SP went up more then that over last 2 days..........

[Waltzing]

"Lovisa SP "

not the same type of dog..

like comparing a hunting beagle to a Corgi ...

the Corgi is refined though and often seen at garden parties with orchestras...

friendly dog

[winner69]

"Lovisa SP "

not the same type of dog..

like comparing a racing gray hound to a Corgi ...

Yep waltz ….Speedy Az (my avatar) fastest greyhound in NZ at his peak …..corgis not in same race lol

[Waltzing]

bit of a worry this doom sayer...

gee Winner() might have to sell the highs, back to just trading as in the last decade...

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/30/steve-hanke-were-going-to-have-one-whopper-of-a-recession-in-2023.html

[Waltzing]

what if holders decide , nope they dont want to sell if div is going to stay around for a while....

they could struggle to get there buy back going but they are dual listed.

Buy back could run for quite a while.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

what if holders decide , nope they dont want to sell if div is going to stay around for a while....

they could struggle to get there buy back going but they are dual listed.

Buy back could run for quite a while.

The less people want to sell, the higher the buyback would push the share price, which itself would probably shake some sellers loose.

[winner69]

The less people want to sell, the higher the buyback would push the share price, which itself would probably shake some sellers loose.

..... that's assuming buy backs have an impact on share prices

[Waltzing]

The family owns a lot of shares... buyback could easily shake some of that out.

over time of course it does have an effect on increasing the div slightly.

Did LEK state the daily vol and that vol is not big. The family could dump some. The register will be interesting to look at as the buyback kicks in.

[Waltzing]

who ever is buying this share should think very carefully about the risks involved in buy a stock with very little debt and a ton of cash they are going to waste on a share buy back....

Corgi people think Corgi...

Did you own that gray hound winner ? must have been a thrill a race ...

take a deep breath here people and consider the risks... huge recession next year... huge ...just ask DA MOOOSIE...

[Waltzing]

Big problem here winner(?) Portfolio.SharePrice.Direction = EQU.UP

mayeb the SHAZ like Corgi's....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApiLrgIN_JY

[winner69]

I've asked Raymond to write a story about Michael Hill along the lines of this one about Lovisa

Interesting insight into Lovisa entry into Canada .....hmmm

https://arichlife.com.au/lovisa-asx-lov-fy-2022-results-shines-ever-so-brightly/

[Waltzing]

Fashion designer in AUS a year back sent a summary privately of a pro report on stone buying review for the trade.

Also shows that the business models are different for different retailers.

Pedigree and models are not the same according to the private designer.

Expecting MHJ growth not accelerate and if it does a miracle will have occurred.

[winner69]

Fashion designer in AUS a year back sent a summary privately of a pro report on stone buying review for the trade.

Also shows that the business models are different for different retailers.

Pedigree and models are not the same according to the private designer.

Expecting MHJ growth not accelerate and if it does a miracle will have occurred.

....expecting MHJ growth not accelerate .......that doesn't sound too good

[Waltzing]

That was a year ago winner()...the designer did not expect much growth. since they have moved forward and canada provided the growth.

since then the private fashion designer has also experiance AUS growth.

Obviously the NZ market and US / Canada are very different from AUS/NZ

that why we went light of the stock and only recently went back in for some more when LOV reported big stuff...

but a question mark still exists in share investor minds doesnt it.

Lov opens store while Corgi carefully consolidates its market which is probably not the young hip market at LOV goes for.

Notice the marketing for MHJ in Rialto channel, not a channel young people whatch.

Demographic of the customer is radically different the 2 companies selling styles.

[Waltzing]

zero trade today in the Corgi....

blistering pace ....

the buyback could take ages but they said its undervalued .....

wonder what value they are thinking of then Winner(**)

that a pointer to a pointer...

[Rawz]

zero trade today in the Corgi....

blistering pace ....

the buyback could take ages but they said its undervalued .....

wonder what value they are thinking of then Winner(**)

that a pointer to a pointer...

got to be $1.50 as a start? unless Hills want to offload?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

zero trade today in the Corgi....

blistering pace ....

the buyback could take ages but they said its undervalued .....

wonder what value they are thinking of then Winner(**)

that a pointer to a pointer...

They mentioned there is a mandatory 2 week wait before they were allowed to start the buyback. Check back in Mid-September to see how volume looks…

[Waltzing]

Hills want to offload?

Think you on the money. do they hold any in Trusts? if they do it would be a good time to unload....

still that could be off market SP's

we use them to move between private company holdings.

we had tax consulting work done on other arrangements some time ago.

The some of the tax accountants said NO NO NO for some arrangements but the Tax Laywers said YES YES YES..

"Check back in Mid-September to see how volume looks…"

we have our own automated platform that does this daily using our own manufactured IOT language...

fully automated..


The IOT runs like a robotic factory connection to bindables at runtime... It's next generation.

[Waltzing]

40 @ 128

nice ...

[winner69]

I assume they are going to buy some on NZX

Official notification to ASX filed …nothing specific NZX yet ….just the vague details in annual announcements.

[Waltzing]

be very interesting to see it play out.

[winner69]

Did they actually say the shares were undervalued (in their opinion)

Hope not - usually puts a kiss of death on the share price

[Rawz]

Did they actually say the shares were undervalued (in their opinion)

Hope not - usually puts a kiss of death on the share price

Yes they did. Something like.. we share some views that the current SP is undervalued

And right they are!!

[Waltzing]

Gee winner() some order at 129...

some of the SHAZ must like Corgis....

there is just no telling for taste... truely...

yep buy backs usually a killer to the share price cause the DIV goes down...

everyone goes "they have no idea what to do with the money"

in this case its the board going " hey lets give ourselfs some money once it hits 1.50"

which means it a pump and dump....

LOV on the other hand opens stores and dumps the chunks of rock.

The designer said its a high high pressure selling jig...

MHJ holds the Chunks of rock and sells a Rialto elegance range...a conservative model.

Check the register later and hopefully wrong on the dump into the buyback. Will Rob F sell some....

[winner69]

Gee winner() some order at 129...

some of the SHAZ must like Corgis....

there is just no telling for taste... truely...

yep buy backs usually a killer to the share price cause the DIV goes down...

everyone goes "they have no idea what to do with the money"

in this case its the board going " hey lets give ourselfs some money once it hits 1.50"

which means it a bump and dump....

Going well on ASX as well

we'll be over 130 today ....could get to 132 when brakes are released ..... FOMO kicking in and not FOPTM

Go you good thing

[Waltzing]

flat on the ASX...

not a winner today....

[winner69]

Thanks for the chart Phaedrus. I have been looking at MHI since a relative told me MH's aim is 1000 stores in 18 years time (now thats longterm!). I'll now be watching for an upside breakout, or a bounce off the trendline or ema after a downside breakout.

Cigar's post from June 2004

I like the 1,000 stores in 18 years bit

Might get there one day .... even though going backwards these days

[Waltzing]

Winner its a Trade till the end of the BB....

FED is going to crash the PAAAARRRRTY.:eek2:

if the frozen brains in russia are going down they are going to take europe with them...NO GAS... recession combined with the FED its a perfect storm coming...

[Waltzing]

whopping big market sell off coming this october winner(?)

thats polymorphic ....

well it got to 130, very disappointing but if october blows to bits might get some at 120....

[winner69]

Jeez - Lovisa has made it into the ASX200 - that's huge

MHJ might get there one day ;)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Jeez - Lovisa has made it into the ASX200 - that's huge

MHJ might get there one day ;)

$2.37B AUD market cap - She’s a monster all right.

I wonder if they want to go upmarket via an acquisition of a retailer currently trading at a low multiple.

The two brands are not really in competition, and lovisa has no presence in Canada either.

[winner69]

$2.37B AUD market cap - She’s a monster all right.

I wonder if they want to go upmarket via an acquisition of a retailer currently trading at a low multiple.

The two brands are not really in competition, and lovisa has no presence in Canada either.

Just starting to get big in Canada LEK - CFO said 'We opened in West Edmonton and we are pleased with that ....'

But no threat to MHJ so no worries

[Rawz]

MHJ's Medley https://medleyjewellery.com.au/ could one day overthrow the monster LOV?

[Waltzing]

Well boy and girls Bling Buy BAAACCCK starts soon?

every got their coke and pop corn ready?

any late buyers?

WinnerBinner(*<=>) ????

no such syntax by the way depicting a toss up then...

Winner Binner says ? Buy backs always a fail... lets hope not ...

price of heating in Canada?

they build real houses there anyway...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Am I seeing things or did MHJ go ex 4c dividend today and still manage to close higher?

[winner69]

Am I seeing things or did MHJ go ex 4c dividend today and still manage to close higher?


Of course you saw good things ….but recovering the downs of the last few days though

But heaps better than a few weeks ago eh

[Waltzing]

Not seeing things and very very disappointing.... how of earth is one supposed to get a bigger bag of jewels when everyone wants more!!!

Its as insane as europe markets opening higher today after the ugly bear told everyone they are going to freeze to death this winter....

Well WG (winner Grinner) it wasnt you buying today was it?

who bought today.... 110 to 125 might look pretty cheap shortly...

[Waltzing]

SBB does start 19th and anyone who did the numbers would have realised that it will go on for a while and indeed goes for a YEAR....

Going to be very interesting to see the average buys and how often.....

With many inflation indicators coming down (the LEK report) you have to wonder if all these OCR hicks when combined with QT... Qute what? Cute Tights?

Maybe they flash crash the market with over tightening ...

re Sheldon on supply side inflation...

[Waltzing]

Hardly a trade today....

Nada ....

[winner69]

Hardly a trade today....

Nada ....

Queen dying put punters off buying glitzy things maybe

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Queen dying put punters off buying glitzy things maybe

Prepare for the avalanche of “Coronation jewelry” offers…

[Waltzing]

Apparently some IWI want the current system to keep going as they love going to afternoon tea royal garden parties ....

and of course they like having there own King so it Like for Like...

Afternoon tea with the Royals be it English or Local...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/royals/300683078/queen-elizabeth-ii-dies-mori-remember-te-ktuku

[Waltzing]

yep sell these thats right dump them...

whos buying...

huge interest rate hikes coming down the pipes....

blood in the streets...

Winner Grinner start selling...:t_up:

oh SBB starting 19th ...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Spectacular performance closing unchanged for the day at 1.27

[Waltzing]

Yes its been hard to get them even when markets sell off... this has been going on for a while now...

But sometimes people who want to sell wait for the BB and then sell... but it going on for a year which means you cant just dump a ton of share on to the market... if you have a lot to sell you will have to drip feed them..

BRISC performance appears to have pushed confidence up and WHS even taken a bit of a lift up.

The LEK report still looks good... green on the little bars...

[Waltzing]

Winner notice the release of the updated policy on trading in the company shares...

and whose going to be selling?

[Waltzing]

Will the employees and board members , family all participate in the SBB....

if this is as good as it gets will this SBB instead of a huge special Dividend be actually an opportunity to sell down their stakes generating some volume that is not normally there.

If it hits 150 could that be the time to dump.

[winner69]

buy back starts today

Watch this baby fly

Of course everybody wil better off this time next year …even those who hold on to their shares

Forbar will be happy as well

[MauroNZ]

buy back starts today

Watch this baby fly

Of course everybody wil better off this time next year …even those who hold on to their shares

Forbar will be happy as well

Do you really think so?

[Waltzing]

Hope your right winner grinner (*).....

they have to do it according to the rules...

[Waltzing]

pop corn, coke and we are off!

early action see 50000 out of the auction on the NZX this morning as the investor nation wakes up to a new week.

High inflation, wage demands in the health sector and a government under seige but the hotest investment in town is gold and diamonds... a girls best friend... and yours if your a stake holder...whose buying.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Already over 40,000 shares traded in first 45 mins today. ForBar already gobbling up shares?

[Waltzing]

yes but the BB is only 19 M

from 2 markets over 12 months...

not that hard to fillfull unless people decide to hold out..

and reporting has moved to half yearly... sneaky...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

yes but the BB is only 19 M

from 2 markets over 12 months...

not that hard to fillfull unless people decide to hold out..

and reporting has moved to half yearly... sneaky...

Roughly 80,000 shares on average to buyback every day across the 2 exchanges, where the normal combined volume is around 125k per day.

[Waltzing]

yes exactly LEK....

but what if the large numbers of held shares by those in the firm and related to the firm use it as a selling oppo...

price hardly moves ...

remember these guys are sales man... think margin call.

dont trust these people LEK

they are slick sales people... london spiv's

the fools are at the table and they are the retail investor.

[winner69]

Good governance re buybacks is for the company to make a statement detailing the process and outlining certain procedural safeguards which are aimed at ensuring that the buyback does not distort the market price of the shares ….and importantly saying fair to all shareholders (those selling and those keeping) by stressing all transactions are done at “arms length.”

MHJ seem to be a bit slack in this respect

So is this buyback all going to be big free for all ….to the detriment of shareholders …but then share buy backs are meant to be fabulous things for share holders who don’t sell.

[Waltzing]

Share price hasnt moved and the vol is up...

the release of the trading policy statement makes it clear that anyone wishing to sell who is an employee of related in some legal way to MHJ are covered by the new policy.

Dotting I and crossing T's

sellers have met buyers today.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Day one acquisitions:

14177

[Waltzing]

All on the ASX ...

[Waltzing]

price going nowhere....

[winner69]

price going nowhere....


They doing a good job in supporting the share price ......prob collapse without buyback

That's what buybacks for eh waltz

[LaserEyeKiwi]

All on the ASX ...

???

it says: “33.246 ordinary shares acquired on NZX”

[Waltzing]

" collapse without buyback"

They said its undervalued!!! but by what?

it was holding up fine... a pullback.... retreat... regrouping... total capulation would have been welcome.... its never happened after spending a year waiting...


LEK... stand corrected did not read far enough...

not a lot though? looks like sellers dumping after the DIV and BB maybe holding it up...

see a hopefull selling 100 ... if they though the BB was going to work they would listed at about +150.. that 100 tells you everything.

HLG still above 5... Bris sold off a bit...

retail hasnt collasped yet...whs down a bit...

anyone remember the old 12 AM radio news... or was it one oclock...

share prices , meet and beef... and the old ANZ prices computer cant remember all the info it displayed.

[winner69]

Another 55k yesterday on ASX

More than 50% of volume

Seems a rather high percentage for an ‘orderly’ buyback

At least it’s keeping the share price up.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Another 55k yesterday on ASX

More than 50% of volume

Seems a rather high percentage for an ‘orderly’ buyback

At least it’s keeping the share price up.

I suppose that due to the fact the NZX MHJ price will inevitably track the ASX MHJ price 1:1, then one would get more “pressure” from concentrating buyback on a single exchange possibly, but with two brokers handling this I wouldn’t have any idea how all this will shake out.

Definitely a different experience seeing these daily updates (my only buyback experience for any of my equities is on the US market where you only find out buyback amounts at quarterly earnings)

I remember advocating for Apple to raise $200 Billion in debt to all be used on a buyback when their market cap was only $400 Billion and they were generating $50 Billion in cashflow annually. They eventually did start a massive buyback that continues to this day, but only after market cap had massively appreciated (currently sitting at $2.5 Trillion USD)