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Phaedrus
15-06-2004, 04:22 PM
Gryffyn, here is the MHI chart you wanted.
MHI has been in an uptrend for about a year now. This uptrend has been characterised by a series of symmetrical triangles. These are a reasonably bullish formation, in that 64% of them break to the upside, 34% down. The current symmetrical triangle is forming nicely and an upside breakout would confirm continuation of the uptrend. A downside breakout would spoil the pretty chart.
I have plotted trendlines and their associated buy/sell signals, along with a 100 day simple moving average such as would be used by a medium-term trader. The moving average crossover signals provide useful confirmation of the trendline break signals, though usually some time later.
The 1 year ema is plotted to give some idea of how such an indicator would be used by long-term/buy/hold trader/investors. There are a lot fewer signals, and of course they are always late - this is a very conservative moving average. Not everyone wants to trade actively, and the use of such an indicator keeps long-term holders on the right side of the major trends.
A 14% Stoploss is plotted, but this is really a backstop - other indicators will usually have signalled an exit long before this would be hit.
Current price action is well above the 4 indicators plotted here.
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/MHI002.gif

Cigar
15-06-2004, 05:18 PM
Thanks for the chart Phaedrus. I have been looking at MHI since a relative told me MH's aim is 1000 stores in 18 years time (now thats longterm!). I'll now be watching for an upside breakout, or a bounce off the trendline or ema after a downside breakout.

Gryffyn
16-06-2004, 11:29 AM
Thanks very much Phaedrus :-)

Confirms my decision to sell at 5.99 and stay out for now. I expect more activity will come around the next reporting date.

Interesting that MHI was picked by many as the one share they would invest in if they had to make a choice but TA plus basic fundamentals don't give it the same gloss. I guess everyone loves a winning story and the gut feel is that long-term this is still a very good share.

Thanks again.

KJ
16-06-2004, 01:13 PM
I am happy to hold -in a solid uptrend I hope.

Halebop
16-06-2004, 02:48 PM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Interesting that MHI was picked by many as the one share they would invest in if they had to make a choice but TA plus basic fundamentals don't give it the same gloss. I guess everyone loves a winning story and the gut feel is that long-term this is still a very good share.


I presume you are talking the fundamentals of the share price and not the underlying business? I think the business fundamentals look solid, despite short/medium'ish term risks of a retail downturn.

Gryffyn
16-06-2004, 04:39 PM
Yes, P/E and yield don't necessarily stack up against some other shares but I agree that the underlying business looks sound.

Certainly an easy share to appraise in that regard - nice and focused with their plans clearly set out.

Whether a lot of that track record and optimism is already priced in is the question and the share funds plus TA make it appear so.

Gryffyn
13-07-2004, 12:26 PM
MHI
13/07/2004
GENERAL

REL: 1311 HRS Michael Hill International Limited

GENERAL: MHI: Unaudited Sales figures for 12 months ended 30 June 2004

Note that these figures are preliminary figures and do not necessarily
reflect accounting adjustments.
Note also that the comparative figures for Last Year reflect the final
audited figures for that period.
Same stores have been opened for the whole of the corresponding period.
All figures are in New Zealand dollars.

12 month Sales Last Year This Year % Var

Same Stores
New Zealand $82,034,357 $82,981,726 +1.2%
Australia $131,502,051 $146,017,350 +11.0%
Total Same Stores $214,760,620 $230,593,084 +7.2%

All Stores
New Zealand $83,784,000 $86,381,070 +3.1%
Australia $138,710,246 $166,935,540 +20.3%
Canada $2,307,688 $5,862,487 +154.0%
Total All Stores $224,801,934 $259,179,097 +15.3%

Exchange rates used:
Australia 0.89 0.88
Canada 0.80 0.84

Commentary

1. NZ sales were 8.0% up for the fourth quarter and finished the year
1.2% up on last year.
2. The Australian stores continued to perform strongly in the June
quarter and same stores sales finished the year 9.8% up on last year in $A.
3. Canadian sales figures for the 12 months were for 4 stores compared
to 8 months of sales for the previous year.
4. The overall same store increase for the 12 months of 7.2% is a
pleasing result.
5. The full year profit announcement will be made on the 20th August
2004.

R.M.Hill
Chairman 13/7/04

Inquiries

Wayne Butler, Company Secretary 021 976800
End CA:00102546 For:MHI Type:GENERAL Time:2004-07-13:13:11:09

Gryffyn
13-07-2004, 12:27 PM
Anyone thinking this share is fairly/fully valued?

Good result but not stellar. More sideways softness predicted for next 6 months I think.

Disc: None but considering re-acquiring.

Placebo
13-07-2004, 12:36 PM
Pretty close to fully valued.

Underlines its future growth is offshore (Aust and Canada, possibly US?). 1.2pct same stores growth in NZ, below the rate of inflation.

Gryffyn
13-07-2004, 01:20 PM
Yup, NZ WHS will eventually have some impact in NZ as well as Farmers / Pascoes tie up. Staying out for a bit longer methinks.

Prophet
13-07-2004, 02:34 PM
I call MHI fully priced at this point. I applied a 5.5% gross margin (avg of the last 2 yrs) to the FY sales figures, derived the eps based on 38.5M shares on issue then applied a fair if not slightly generous PE of 16 and $5.95ish pops out.

Still a good share but there are better opportunities around for now.

KJ
13-07-2004, 03:46 PM
Not disagreeing but interesting-if one applied the same PE of 16 to WHS its shareprice should be about $3.15.

IMO WHS has a long way south to go yet.

Prophet
13-07-2004, 05:47 PM
Wouldn't disagree with that observation at all KJ although WHS has historically had a stronger PE than that. Still is it deserved now - possibly not. Is WHS headed south - probably yes.

kiwi_on_OE
14-07-2004, 01:22 AM
Prophet

So your eps calc is for the FY just completed? What about eps for the current FY? And what about next FY etc.? What chance of ongoing annual sales increases similar to this year, and profit increases?

I'm happy with the way they are performing.

skinny
14-07-2004, 02:44 AM
yes its fully valued now ;);)

KJ
14-07-2004, 07:40 AM
Kiwi-I think you will find that the PE of 16 is based on forward NPAT of about $14m.
Agree with you that long term this will be a very good hold.

Gryffyn
14-07-2004, 08:02 AM
Michael Hill reports strong sales as Canada looks 'promising'

14.07.2004
By IRENE CHAPPLE
Jewellery retailer and stock market darling Michael Hill International revealed a jump in same-store sales yesterday but said nothing about plans pending its full-year profit announcement next month.

Company secretary Wayne Butler took media calls in the absence of chief executive Mike P****ll and founder Michael Hill, both on holiday in Europe.

The company's share price has rocketed up from around $5 at the beginning of the year to a high of $6 in April.

Yesterday's announcement of a 7.2 per cent increase in same-store sales in the year to June 30 triggered a tiny increase in the share price, which soon settled down to close at $5.95.

The 12-month sales figures broke down to show New Zealand had turned around its dismal first half while Australia continued to perform strongly.

New Zealand produced $83 million same-store sales, 1.2 per cent up, while Australia offered $146 million in same-store sales, an increase of 11 per cent.

Sales figures for all stores were $86.3 million and $167 million respectively.

Butler said margins had remained steady. He said New Zealand's last three months had lifted same sales into the positive but there was room for the home market to improve.

In Australia: "They just seem to have got things right."

Canada, where the company set up shop in 2003 and is run by Hill's daughter Emma, produced $5.9 million in sales, an increase of 154 per cent over 12 months compared with the eight months the previous year.

The expansion has been cautious, a strategy which won over Australia when Michael Hill crossed the Tasman in 1987.

However, Butler conceded the Canadian arm looked "very promising".

Butler said new advertising for the chain had been emotional rather than transactional and had pushed up sales.

Placebo
14-07-2004, 10:17 AM
Is it wise to base your total assessment on one measure? Is this taking into account the trendline in terms of sales growth in Aust (11pct) and Canada (exponential)? Surely you need to look at the total picture, MHI has a very positive outlook, the question is whether that upside potential is factored into the price.

WHS on the other hand has continuing downward pressure. It would be harder to get a more graphic portrayal of the companies' contrasting fortunes than in today's NZ Herald. MHI lauded for continuing growth, WHS trying to stave off the doomsayers over its Aust operations.

One interesting thing in today's coverage, I had no idea Michael Hill's daughter was running the Canadian operation. Who said nepotism died with the Fletchers?:D

Gryffyn
14-07-2004, 11:21 AM
Placebo - you need to get up todate. MH himself very back seat these days developing his golf course etc. Family have been involved at high levels for a while.

Prophet
14-07-2004, 11:46 AM
KOO - Fully priced based on FY completed revenues was my only claim. Outlook going forward would appear to be positive. Just because its fully priced doesn't mean you should sell, rather don't expect the price to race away. If you actively managed your portfolio then you might take the opportunity to sell down part of your MHI holding temporarily and find an undervalued stock with prospects to keep your money working hard. But thats a personal decision.

kiwi_on_OE
15-07-2004, 04:39 AM
While it's still in an uptrend having gone up 50% in a year I'll stick with it. My practice is to do valuations looking forward rather than back. On that basis, if its fully valued on last FY figures and growth was to be 15% this year then I'd argue it's 15% undervalued.

I do of course usually get things horribly wrong, so doing the opposite to me could be advisable.

skinny
15-07-2004, 06:38 AM
quote:Originally posted by skinny

yes its fully valued now ;);)


Ok, have a bit of time now for a more considered reply! On the MHI main thread I (along with Halebop) value MHI at +$7 based on DCF valuations. With the latest full year numbers mine is revised up a bit (around $7.20) as sales for the second 1/2 was stronger than I was factoring in. The Canadian results are particularly good given currently Canada's economy is in a soft patch.

As far as the chart goes I'm no techie but I reckon breaching $6 well and truly IS pretty significant. Its tried to do it and failed for a few months now with large selling depth always appearing at $6. Now the depth charts look quite different with no sig. offer volumes to $6.25 odd.

Like FBU passing $4 and NPX passing $6 now its done it IMO it will keep on going [:p]

Phaedrus
15-07-2004, 08:00 AM
Skinny, what you say about the resistance at $6 being overcome is of course quite correct, though a minor detail to my mind.
Technically, for MHI it has been "business as usual" - another month, another symmetrical triangle, another upside breakout continuing the uptrend. The real test will be when MHI approaches the $6.40 resistance level marked by the double top of January last year.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/MHI3001.gif

Placebo
15-07-2004, 08:45 AM
Hooray!

skinny
15-07-2004, 09:26 AM
Thanks for the chart update Phaedrus :)
As said I'm no techie so I was just going by what seemed to have been holding it back in the past wee while.

Actually any comments you care to give on how you think about share prices as they approach previous all time highs would be much appreciated. I suppose you see them as pretty signifcant resistance levels because its where trends have broken down in the past? So a breach all else equal would be a fairly bullish technical signal? I ask because MHI is my largest individual holding and my 2nd, DVN in the US, has a similar looking chart to MHI and it closed at its highest price ever today on fairly light volumes (the previous high was set in March 2001). For both companies I think the share prices still have a way to go on the fundamentals but even so...

boring
15-07-2004, 04:33 PM
"Auckland Today", a free rag that appears in my postbox once in a while, had an interesting profile on Mr Michael Hill. Although the article had nothing that hasn't already been reported before, it's worth quoting a few passages:

"After successful years in Australia, the Michael Hill brand is now making inroads into Canada. Next stops, the United States and Britain. Hill is working on an 18 year timetable towards global domination, taking 'slowly does it' as his motto. Like Churchill - one of the many historical figures he cites during our conversation - he's taking on the Canada market a city at a time, strategically scattering Michael Hill Jeweller stores around the country"

"'It's like war really' [Micheal Hill]. He's confident that the company formula - identifiable shop design, specific marketing, established training systems - will work anywhere."

"'In Australia, there is always going to be some New Zealanders, so they know you, but in Canada we were literally starting again. That's good for you, because it gets you back to basics. [Michael Hill]".

And the rest of the article talks about how he built his empire despite failing School Cert first time round etc.

What I find interesting is that the rollout of MH stores is almost like a franchising business model, except for the ownership factor. Transplant your systems, branding and company culture to another geographical location, test the waters, and if it is a success, then do it again somewhere else. Maybe apart from a bit of minor tweaking, there doesn't seem to be a need to change the business model and systems in order to "localise" the business. An easily transportable expansion model.

Maybe the real key is the "slowly does it" model and MH has found a Jewellery business model that is well-suited to the Western Economies. It would be interesting to see how MH would handle an expansion into Asia, or if they'd even consider the prospect.

Halebop
15-07-2004, 06:02 PM
quote:Originally posted by boring

...'It's like war really' [Micheal Hill]...


Business is exactly like war. The wisdom of Sun Tsu seems to have diminished in popularity but still rings true...

Sun Tsu Link (http://www.chinapage.com/sunzi-e.html)

kiwi_on_OE
17-07-2004, 01:05 AM
Phaedrus - from your chart, could it be interpreted as being in an uptrend, because it seems to have been in a mini-uptrend since May, or broken above a previous high as it has gone above the April(?) high of 6.05(?). Or is that all pretty irrelevant until it get above 6.4?

Phaedrus
17-07-2004, 07:51 AM
Kooe, (are you really an Australian?),
MHI has been in an unbroken uptrend since 6/10/03. On that date, it closed at 441, thus making a higher high after a higher low. Uptrends are defined as a series of higher highs and higher lows so 6/10/03 was the first day on which these conditions were met. You can clearly see that from this point on, MHI has continued making higher highs and higher lows, so the uptrend is still intact and ongoing. Uptrends are presumed to be in existence until they end with a lower low after a lower high - a downtrend.
I will update and edit the chart I posted on 15/7, adding markers for these points as follows :-
(1) Low
(2) High
(3) Higher low
(4) Higher high ( = Uptrend )
Some people seem to think that uptrends are a subjective thing, all in the mind of the beholder and open to interpretation. Not so. They have clear definitions and thus are a matter of fact, not opinion.

Phaedrus
07-10-2004, 07:43 AM
Since firing off a lot of buy signals late last year, MHI has gone into an accelerating uptrend. This has left some indicators behind and there is now too big a gap between them and current price action - much of your gains would be given back to the market before sell signals were triggered. Revision of the indicators we are using to monitor this uptrend is overdue.
While the trendline that was in use has become obsolete, because of the accelerating nature of this uptrend we have not yet been able to draw a new confirmed trendline. Successive tentative trendlines are plotted in light green.
The 100 day Simple moving average can now be shortened to 50 days, bringing it much closer to the latest price action.
Notice how a dynamic indicator such as the ATR (Average True Range) based trailing stop has automatically adjusted itself to the recent rises in the price of this stock. That is the strength of an indicator that is moderated by the volatility of the underlying stock price movements.
Take a look at the OBV plot at the top of the chart - it continues to rise steadily. This stock is still being accumulated and there is no sign at all of distribution at this stage.
Many times during the course of this uptrend fundamentalists have declared MHI to be "fully valued". The market clearly does not agree yet - the shareprice just keeps going up.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/MHI3001.gif

k1w1
07-10-2004, 08:05 AM
I think that the most recent increase in SP is due to significant buying by Fisher Funds who have been increasing their stake. This may or may not give other shareholders confidence. I don't regard it as a negative myself. Techies would say who cares, provided stops are in place, any change in sentiment towards MHI will be detected and appropriate action taken.

In situations like MHI I always remember Warren Buffett's comment that the stock market in the short term is a voting machine but in the longer term is a weighing machine.

Placebo
11-10-2004, 12:56 PM
More news from MHI... Christmas quarter to come, then Valentines...


quote:MHI
11/10/2004
QUARTER

REL: 1259 HRS Michael Hill International Limited

QUARTER: MHI: Michael Hill International sales up 9.6% for first quarter

Michael Hill International Limited
3 months sales to 30 September 2004.

Note that these figures represent 2 months actual and September preliminary
figures excluding accounting adjustments.

Last Year This Year
% Var

NZ same stores 15,107,710
15,474,224 2.4%
Australia same stores 28,852,241
30,157,059 4.5%
Canada same stores
1,055,223 1,103,592 4.6%
Total same stores
$45,015,174 $46,734,875 3.8%

NZ all stores 15,107,710
15,474,224 2.4%
Australia all stores
29,256,672 33,102,052 13.1%
Canada all stores
1,055,223 1,204,519 14.1%
Total all stores $45,419,604
$49,780,795 9.6%

The above figures are all in NZ Dollars.

Exchange rate used for conversion to NZ dollars
Australia .88
.92
Canada
.84 .86

Comments

In the first quarter, 4 new stores were opened in Australia and 2 new
stores opened in Canada.

Same store sales in Australia were up 9.3% in Australian dollars - the first
quarter exchange rate last year being .88 versus .92 this year.

k1w1
11-10-2004, 02:12 PM
Looking at the 3 month figures the total same store sales across the whole group have only increased by $1.7 million.

The increase in sales has come from new stores in Australia. Sales revenue from Canada's existing stores has increased by $50,000.00.The 2 new Canadian stores has increased sales by $100,000 or $8500 per week. With no new stores New Zealand sales have increased by $200,000.00 over the period.

This leaves 4 new stores in Australia producing about 2 million in New Sales and existing stores increasing sales by $1.5 million.

I think these figures show:

Management recognises that growth in NZ is stagnant and new investments are better made overseas.

Growth in Canada is hardly breathtaking at this stage. I don't regard sales of approx $4500 per week per new store as significant.Perhaps that will change in the future. But thats still blue sky investing at this stage.

The real growth is in Australia where the new stores are having a significant impact and the existing ones are also improving.

More profits would be made in the next year if all the MHI stores were spread across Australia rather than Canada and NZ as well.

ANC.AX is in exactly that position.With more stores in Australia than MHI it is accordingly better positioned to grow its sales and profits than MHI.

Despite this the market continues to have a growth premium priced into the MHI SP and not into the ANC SP.

Thus the Buffet saying about the market being a voting machine in the short term but in the longer term it becomes a weighing machine.

Nevl
11-10-2004, 07:45 PM
I fail to see how a 9% increase in sales in a bad thing. I agree NZ slaes growth will be limited to about the same as inflation and the the rate of increase in GDP. Not much more space in the country for more stores. Aussie is getting better as Aussie will when they begin to see MHI as an Aussie company. Just don't remind them of its Kiwi origins and Aussie will do fine. It is becoming an accepted piece of the furniture over there and that will help in the long term. The case of $4500 per week in sales is ok as long as the costs are less than that. I am not a retailer but I am sure MHI have thought this one through as long as sales are higher than costs this will be fine. Remember Jewelery is a high markup business with margins of 200% not uncommon. I would say the stock cost of those $4500 in sales was less that $2000 leaving 2500 to cover Rent wages and admin costs. MHI stores are usually small with maybe 2 full time staff so rent should be ok with the wages of maybe 800pw for the staff. The thing in Canada is see how much the same store sales improve. That was 4.6% not great but ok for a new company in a competitive market. Also they had the 4 stores for 1 year before deciding that they could make a go. I think the next results will show at least breakeven in Canada and expect group profit to be up a by 10 to 15%.

Depending on your investing style that may not be enough and you may spot better opportunities elsewhere. Still as a solid performer to form the basis of a long term investment portfolio I reckon it is a winner.

bambi
12-10-2004, 09:35 AM
Don't expect Canada to break even soon. In the annual report it states 12 stores are needed for them to break even.
Still I think this is a great company taking a nice slow and steady approach. I don't think they'll ever grow as fast as some other companies but you know they aren't going to stuff up and go under either.

Bambi
Disc: Hold MHI

KJ
12-10-2004, 10:12 AM
I don't think that the latest 3 mth figures are a good indicator of of how MHI is performing.The time frame is too short.

If you look at the FY figures to 30/6/04:

Sales
Aussi-$1.80m per store
NZ -$1.88m per store
Can -$1.23m per store

Canadian sales increased by 166%-it does not seem too hard for sales to reach the same level as NZ and Aussi.They expect that they need 12 stores to break even with 4 more stores opening this yr.

Is NZ important?

NZ is important to MHI-NZ EBIT as a % of revenue is 12.7%-considerably better than AUSSI at 10.9%.
As a result NZ ebit $11.0m(46 stores)-Aussi ebit $18.2m(93 stores)
I see that they are considering opening another 2 stores in NZ.

IMO the strategy of spreading into CAN is sound while continuing their expansion in Aussi where another 9 new stores are planned.

k1w1
12-10-2004, 12:08 PM
KJ, Bambi and Nevl,

I am not saying that MHI is a poor company. My point is a really narrow one.

In Canada there are now 6 stores, 4 more are planned. As pointed out they need 12 to break even. So in the next year at least profit growth will not come from Canada.

In New Zealand their room for expansion and growth is limited. Effectively they are in a mature market. So in the next year growth in sales and hence profits will not come from New Zealand.

It is Australia that MHI is looking for growth in sales and profits. It will grow its sales by opening new stores there. Nevl that is how you get 9% growth. If you compare same store to same store the MHI growth is only 3 %.

It seems from comparisons with ANC that MHI is right in their strategy. ANC have also identified Australia as the place where its market share and profits have grown and as a place to expand with new stores and renovations of existing stores.

MHI has growth already priced into its SP.

Now which one of the above statements am I wrong about ?

KJ
12-10-2004, 01:04 PM
Kiwi-you seem to be saying that expanding into Can was not a good idea and sales are not going well.

You state that the sales from the 2 new stores in Canada were $4500 per week.This is assuming that these 2 stores were trading for the full 3 mths when in their annual report it was expected that these stores would open in October.I think that you will find that the 2 stores were only trading for a few weeks during the quarter.

I think just looking at a 3 mth period is going to mislead.It would seem that CAN sales are going well-$1.23m per store last yr compared with $1.80m in Aussi.On this basis (after a 2 yr trial)MHI are happy
that CAN will be a success and are now increasing stores.The same formula that they used successfully in Aussi.

I agree that NZ is a mature market and hence their move into Aussi some yrs ago.
MHI deserves to have a growth premium built into its shareprice-most growth coys have.

k1w1
12-10-2004, 02:53 PM
[quote]Originally posted by KJ

Kiwi-you seem to be saying that expanding into Can was not a good idea and sales are not going well.

I am not saying it is not a good idea. Nor that sales are not going well. I am saying that in the next year or two MHI is not going to get any significant addition to its sales revenue or profit from Canada. This is simply because MHI quite prudently are expanding slowly and cautiously. Even if sales per store are as good as Aussie they just arent going to have enough stores to do more than break even.

We agree that NZ is not going to provide the growth and that Australia will. So my point is that in the next year every dollar spent in Australia will generate better returns than the same dollar spent in NZ or Canada. As ANC is spending more dollars in Aust to open more new stores, and has more existing stores there than MHI do , it should do better than MHI in terms of growth in sales and profit in the next year.

Yet market perception is that ANC is not a growth stock and MHI is priced as though it is. Hence my reference to Buffett that short term the market is a voting machine but long term it is a weighing machine.

James K
12-10-2004, 03:17 PM
quote:Originally posted by k1w1

KJ, Bambi and Nevl,
Now which one of the above statements am I wrong about ?


Kiwi, I disagree with 3 of your statements.

1. Canada.
You said "In Canada there are now 6 stores, 4 more are planned. As pointed out they need 12 to break even. So in the next year at least profit growth will not come from Canada."

Please note that Canada lost NZ$1.4 million in FY2004, that was a $0.4m improvement on the prior year when it lost NZ$1.8m. As they approach breakeven (approx 12 stores) Canadian losses will continue to decline. Reducing the size of the Canadian losses will, by itself, produce year-on-year improvement in MHI group's profits (even if it keeps making losses).

2. "In New Zealand their room for expansion and growth is limited. Effectively they are in a mature market. So in the next year growth in sales and hence profits will not come from New Zealand."

I agree store growth opportunities are limited in NZ. But they have said they see potential to open 2 new stores p.a. in NZ. With a current 46NZ stores, that implies approx 4% sales growth.

But there is potential for NZ profit growth. At the FY 2004 announcement they said "Included in the NZ costs are provisions of $705,000 before tax relating tothe downsizing of the Whangarei support office from 30 September 2004, whichhas previously been announced." The non-recurrence of this cost, plus the assumed efficiencies from integrating the Brisbane/Whangarei back office operations should generate a substantial benefit to NZ earnings in FY2005 and thereafter.

3. "It is Australia that MHI is looking for growth in sales and profits. It will grow its sales by opening new stores there. Nevl that is how you get 9% growth. If you compare same store to same store the MHI growth is only 3 %."

Note that in constant exchange rates, Aust same stores sales increases were 9% (it's the effect of the stronger NZ$ that reduces Aust LFLs to 3%). In A$, total Aust sales grew 18.3% (13.1% in NZ$ terms). That's excellent growth IMHO. In Canada, same stores sales increased 7% in C$ terms. That's pretty good on the back of (from memory) 45% Canadian same-store-sales increase in FY2004.

If you're interested have a good read of Michael Hill's Chairman's letter also from the FY2004 report. Paraphrasing, it says he expects the MHI brand to be as big in Canada as it is in Australia in years to come. The MHI share price has run hard recently, but I still believe MHI will be as good to me over the next decade as it has over the last decade.

KJ
12-10-2004, 03:38 PM
Kiwi-fair points.For sure new stores in Aussi would become profitable more quickly than new stores in CAN.

However,perhaps part of the premium attributed to MHI's share price may well be because it has expanded into CAN based on their tried and proven formula they used to establish in Aussi.

Interesting that MHI's shareprice in the last 3 yrs is up just over 50% (460 to 720)and its profit has also risen just over 50% in the same period ($10.0m to $15.1m)

Nevl
12-10-2004, 06:31 PM
Hi Kiwi. Great points and I appreciate the feedback. I agree with most of what you say about the future short term growth of MHI and I feel that if I was a trader I would be sitting on the sideline having taken over 50% profit so far this year with MHI. However I am hoping that Canada will provide as good a growth as Aussie has.

Also the exchange rate issue is a Chimera. As has being pointed out the rise in the NZ$ is hiding the actual improvements. ie 18% growth in Aussie and 7 % in Canada. This is the real MHI sales growth. The currencies have to be converted back to NZ at an arbitary date at a set rate which has nothing to do with the way the business is run. The actual costs of the canadian stores are in C$ and so are there sales. Perfect. While the company is making a loss there these will be lower in accounting terms for the tax man thanks to the high Kiwi but actually it means nothing. A $1 proit is a profit in Canada or Aussie or NZ. Letting good news be obscuered by irrational accounting conventions is great for those who look further.

I will stand by the my preditiction of 10% profit growth for the year and expect this to continue until MHI reaches its 200 stores in Aussie and about 100 in Canada. Like I said NZ is limited to economic growth and inflation for its growth but this does not mean that NZ will suddenly become unprofitable just that profits will stabilise at their current rate. Sweet 9mill per year for as long as they keep doing things right in NZ and that is almost gauranteed. Aussie and Canada are the cherries on top.

k1w1
12-10-2004, 08:06 PM
Nevl, KJ, and James K,

Thanks for the well reasoned replies. I know this is an MHI thread but may I continue to play devils advocate on it just so you guys can double check and confirm your holding of this share. I accept that this business and share has historically out performed almost any other and has stood the test of time.

It is correct that I did not realise that the Canadian stores were not open for the full period. Thus per week sales figures are not a proper measure.

It is also true that more stores will reduce the loss from Canada. This will help the overall firm profits.But it is more accurate to describe this as reducing the losses that Canada makes than saying that Canada is a profitable part of the group in the next year or so.

The rise in the NZ dollar effects MHI in two ways. Any costs in NZ dollar items are more expensive . Any sales or profits in Australian dollars are reduced on transfer to NZ dollars.

My question is will the NZ dollar decrease against the Aussie in the next year given our interest rate policy compared to theirs ? Will MHI continue to have to translate its Australian sales into NZ dollar equivalents for reporting purposes ?

Imagine if MHI not only had more stores in Australia, but was opening more, had all its expenses in Aus dollars and did not have to translate its sales into NZ dollars.

If this was the case I believe its financial performance and the reported profits in its next annual report would be improved . I think MHI boosters would point out these as being of advantage for its shareprice.

In fact that is not MHI's position. But it is someone else's ;)

Phaedrus
03-12-2004, 06:21 AM
Over the last 15 months or so, MHI has been in an accelerating uptrend. This necessitated the use of sequential trendlines as prices left the older trendlines behind. Unless these obsolete trendlines were updated, much of your gains would be given back to the market before sell signals were triggered.
Price action has now broken below the most recent trendline and below the 6x ATR trailing stop, triggering sell signals.
Note how the ATR (Average True Range) based trailing stop automatically adjusted itself to the accelerating price of this stock. That is the strength of a dynamic indicator that is moderated by the volatility of the underlying stock price movements.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/MHI001.gif

skinny
03-12-2004, 10:34 AM
Allo allo MHI has come off a bit hasn't it.

Given MHI was bid up from around 7.50 mainly by institutional buying I think you are right Phaedrus that we'll see it come down a bit now that their spree seems to be over. The question is how low? My call is somewhere around 7 to 7.50, or 10% below current prices, to bring it into the range of 'fair value'. Personally I will look to pick up more if it undershoots below $7.

Sell people please [:p]
Alban is right, MHI is the loser stock for 2005 :D

Placebo
03-12-2004, 10:42 AM
Thanks Phaedrus that's excellent advice. This doesn't seem to be a stock that trades on high volumes, e.g. yesterday it dropped 22c on volume of just over 10,000; down another 5c today on 8,000 shares traded. Volumes were also light as it uptrended strongly. Is this an indicator of volatility?

Alban
03-12-2004, 10:43 AM
Well get some better choices made then Skinny. You just need to type six letters to do better than my rotten picks. [:p]

Sky Tower
04-12-2004, 12:16 AM
Thanks Uncle Phaedrus for posting that MHI chart - most useful.
Your charts and commentaries are excellent
Heres hoping you post lots more

craic
04-12-2004, 01:01 PM
One of the peculiarities of the NZ market is that it is often priced on tiny sales late in the day. I have seen a $150 sale take millions off the reported value of a company on the market and it is easy to believe that this is a deliberate manipulation. Have a look at Contact energy friday sales pattern. From a start of 639 it shoots up to 645 and stays there most of the day then at 5pm it drops to 637 on 50,000 shares and stays there. Who sold 300G worth of shares, probably at market for that low price?

Morch
06-12-2004, 02:27 PM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

Over the last 15 months or so, MHI has been in an accelerating uptrend. This necessitated the use of sequential trendlines as prices left the older trendlines behind. Unless these obsolete trendlines were updated, much of your gains would be given back to the market before sell signals were triggered.
Price action has now broken below the most recent trendline and below the 6x ATR trailing stop, triggering sell signals.
Note how the ATR (Average True Range) based trailing stop automatically adjusted itself to the accelerating price of this stock. That is the strength of a dynamic indicator that is moderated by the volatility of the underlying stock price movements.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/MHI001.gif


Phaedrus many thanks for your charts and comments. Could you please pass on you thoughts/coments to the following trendline related questions, using the MHI chart as the subject.

(1)It seems to me that often after the 3rd line is in place it's confirmation that a retracement is more likley?
(2)Is the longer trendline of the three the most likley one to indicate future support?
(3) Do you always draw your lines using the closing price? and if so why? I often use OHLC

Happy investing
Morch :)

Phaedrus
06-12-2004, 04:24 PM
Morch,
(1)It seems to me that often after the 3rd line is in place it's confirmation that a retracement is more likley?
Sort of. There is nothing magic about the number 3, but the steeper the uptrend, the less sustainable it is and the bigger the retracements tend to be. All uptrends have retracements though - they are an integral part of any trend.

(2)Is the longer trendline of the three the most likley one to indicate future support?
It's not the length of a trendline that indicates its reliability, so much as the number of times it has been "respected", ie the more points of contact, the greater the reliability and the greater the significance of any subsequent trendline break.
This might seem like splitting hairs, but to me, trendlines do not "indicate future support". They are there to show me when/if the uptrend weakens. In other words, I use them to monitor an ongoing uptrend, rather than in an attempt to predict future price action.

(3) Do you always draw your lines using the closing price? and if so why? I often use OHLC
It is commonly accepted that the Close is the most important of the OHLC prices. Generally the Open is assumed to be controlled by the amateurs who have entered their buy/sell orders outside market hours, and the Close is assumed to be dominated by the professionals who are acting as a result of that days price action.
In any event, all my medium/long-term systems are based on Closing prices, so I make most of my buys and sells near the end of the trading day. My shorter-term systems utilise all 4 prices, and to depict them, I use Candlesticks almost exclusively.

Morch
06-12-2004, 04:44 PM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

Morch,
(1)It seems to me that often after the 3rd line is in place it's confirmation that a retracement is more likley?
Sort of. There is nothing magic about the number 3, but the steeper the uptrend, the less sustainable it is and the bigger the retracements tend to be. All uptrends have retracements though - they are an integral part of any trend.

(2)Is the longer trendline of the three the most likley one to indicate future support?
It's not the length of a trendline that indicates its reliability, so much as the number of times it has been "respected", ie the more points of contact, the greater the reliability and the greater the significance of any subsequent trendline break.
This might seem like splitting hairs, but to me, trendlines do not "indicate future support". They are there to show me when/if the uptrend weakens. In other words, I use them to monitor an ongoing uptrend, rather than in an attempt to predict future price action.

(3) Do you always draw your lines using the closing price? and if so why? I often use OHLC
It is commonly accepted that the Close is the most important of the OHLC prices. Generally the Open is assumed to be controlled by the amateurs who have entered their buy/sell orders outside market hours, and the Close is assumed to be dominated by the professionals who are acting as a result of that days price action.
In any event, all my medium/long-term systems are based on Closing prices, so I make most of my buys and sells near the end of the trading day. My shorter-term systems utilise all 4 prices, and to depict them, I use Candlesticks almost exclusively.



Many thanks for your response Phaedrus

Happy investing
Morch :)

k1w1
13-12-2004, 03:08 PM
Is this the gentle hiss of the tyres slowly deflating on the MHI SP ?
Any techies out there who can give us a TA view ?

Phaedrus
13-12-2004, 08:28 PM
K1w1, you want a TA view of MHI? I thought that was what I was giving you with all these charts!
It is only 10 days since I posted the comment "Price action has now broken below the most recent trendline and below the 6x ATR trailing stop, triggering sell signals." These were the first Sell signals in 15 months. Nothing much has happened since then - MHI is tracking more or less sideways, though it has made a lower high since the trendline was broken. Note that it is not in a downtrend yet - that would take a Close of below $7.85. (Today's close was $7.95, and the highest Bid at the moment is $7.85)

k1w1
14-12-2004, 01:00 PM
SP down to $7.80 at close of play. Meanwhile ANC is up 6% at $10.60.

Phaedrus
14-12-2004, 07:08 PM
With todays close of $7.80, MHI is now in a downtrend.

It is quite understandable that a sound stock in a good long-term uptrend should engender support, loyalty or perhaps even devotion from its holders. Stalwarts holding MHI consider it to be "a good buy and hold", one "to take to the grave", they "want to hold longterm", and vow it will be "the last one I will sell".

I would like to encourage such holders to consider the concept of "active investing", rather than simply buying and holding. MHI is a reasonably volatile stock and has had some fairly deep retracements in the course of its relentless longterm uptrend. If you were to avoid holding this stock when it was in a downtrend, your rewards would be much higher. Take a look at the chart below. It uses trendlines, the simplest of technical indicators, to signal entries and exits. This is not something that has been cooked up after the event - I acted on every one of the marked signals. Anyone can see that such an approach with MHI knocks the socks off the gains made by simply buying and doggedly holding through thick and thin.
It is about now that someone will raise the usual bogeys :-
(1) What about all the brokerage you have to pay? ($147.50 total!)
(2) The IRD will be onto you! (2 trades in 3 years? I don't think so!)
(3) I don't want to have to sit at my computer all day! (You don't have to)
(4) TA doesn't work! (You would have trouble convincing me of that)
(5) You will miss out on some dividends! (Maybe, maybe not - so what)
(6) I am an investor, not a trader! (OK, but try being a more active investor)
(7)You will have to pay tax on your gains!
and so on, and on.
Red herrings, every one!!!!

To sell is not disloyal and it does not mean that you will never again hold this splendid stock. Buy it back when the trend changes!

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/MHI002.gif

duncan macgregor
14-12-2004, 07:30 PM
I agree entirely PHEADRUS. The very best companies will level off and stall or even downtrend after a strong uptrend. The price gets to high for its self people panic run in the opposite direction. The old fundamental investor rides it out but the smart money gets off the bus at the top and reboards lower down. macdunk

Halebop
14-12-2004, 07:31 PM
Good advice Phaedrus.

If it is in downtrend hopefully this time I'll remember to buy some down near the bottom!

KJ
14-12-2004, 08:46 PM
I agree Phaedrus-as I said on the other MHI thread I sold out over the last 2-3 weeks.
Hopefully I will buy back in at some point in the future.

craic
16-12-2004, 05:57 PM
Phaedrus, your accuracy with this one almost caused me to bail out but the there is tonights close. How is this accounted for?

Nevl
16-12-2004, 07:23 PM
I think Phadreus' initial anaylsis was correct but then new info entered the market ie improved retail sales. This is where TA can sometimes lead to the wrong decisions. It will be interesting to see if this new info is enough to break the trend that Phadreus has identified. Todays close may suggest so. Still I believe that useing his charts would be a great help and I appreciate his advice. I would also like to nominate Phadreus for ST poster of the year with C9 being a good runner up. Following Phadreus and C9's advice would lead to a pretty good return in the last 14 months. Thanks guys.

Alban
16-12-2004, 07:44 PM
We would have needed a close of above $8.20 today for the downtrend to have been punctured.

kiwi_on_OE
17-12-2004, 01:33 AM
Has there been any TA comment about using linear or log graphs, I couldn't find it after a quick look. Some graphs use linear, some use log.

I noticed on the last graph (log) that the current downtrend would interesct with a continuation of the turquoise uptrend, that went from about 4.5 to 6.0, at about 7.8-7.9 in late Feb/early Mar. What are peoples thoughts about the uptrend resuming then? Would/could that coincide with the half year results?

Conspiracy theory: If the price/date identified is correct, is it by accident or did some traders plan it?

Phaedrus
17-12-2004, 10:13 AM
Craic, I don't think I understand your question. The Close on any later day would alter nothing if the trendline had already been broken.

Nevl, There has been a trendline break. The idea behind this approach is that these things give early warning of any weakening of the trend. The latest trendline break triggered on 2/12/04. By 14/12/04 MHI was in a confirmed downtrend. The trendline break therefore worked superbly in this instance, giving early warning of the subsequent trend reversal. These facts are now history and no subsequent price action would make them "wrong". Now, how long the current downtrend runs for is another question entirely. It is presumed to be in place until it is reversed by a subsequent uptrend. To do this MHI must make a higher high after a higher low. It has yet to make a higher low, let alone a higher high. There is a tentative trendline in place, marked in red on the chart posted 14/12/04. A break of this line would provide a possible entry point for those wanting to buy in to this stock.

KoOE, mathematically, logarithmic price scales should always be used.
If only a small price range is being charted, there is no practical difference between the two. I sometimes use linear price scales where such a scale gives a nice tidy trendline with plenty of confirmations, and a log scale does not.

I am always very sceptical of conspiracy theories. Have you ever tried to manipulate the market? It is very, very difficult, and requires very deep pockets. Even them, any influence is minimal and only short-term.

kiwi_on_OE
17-12-2004, 09:39 PM
Phaedrus - just joking about the conspiracy theory (I hope), but it would be an interesting coincidence.

Arthur
06-01-2005, 03:26 PM
Hi techies

Is the down trend still valid?

Thanks in advance

Arthur

Halebop
06-01-2005, 04:17 PM
It's not in downtrend but not yet definatively in uptrend again either although technically I'd say uptrend recommenced at $8.20. RSI, MacD and progressive closes above the moving averages all look good.

The fundamentalist in me says its in a trading range pending confirmation of growth stock status. Market will be nervous about negative sentiment re Australian economy but factoring growth from additional store openings and long term international potential from Canada et al.

Phaedrus
02-02-2005, 01:52 PM
Chart update. Since the trendline break triggered a Sell on December 2 last year, MHI has continued to weaken, firing off assorted Sell signals as it goes. Technically, there is no excuse whatsoever for holding this stock right now!
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-10/848030/MHI001.gif

k1w1
02-02-2005, 02:07 PM
Unless you like blue sky and sausages .

Phaedrus, will your software allow you to draw on the chart a small grey flightless bird, wearing a BBQ apron, warning somewhat early up on the left of the peak ?

craic
03-02-2005, 09:50 AM
Sold out of MHI this morning. Partly Phaedruse's fault - but only partly. IRD have a formula that strips me of 19.5 cents in every dollar. From the same gross dollar Work and Income take 70 cents in rebate of my partners "super" because she has not quite reached the magic age of sixty-five. That leaves me with 10.5 cents in each dollar I earn - less of course the GST when I go to spend it. So the move is to capital growth and away from dividend-bearing stocks.

kiwi_on_OE
03-02-2005, 09:54 AM
Phaedrus, I should've listened to you earlier. I saw it happening as you indicated and did nothing. Serves me right. What is your view of the TA if you go back a year or so? To me it looks like it was in a reasonably steady uptrend from 9/03 to 9/04 before taking off. A continuation of such a line would indicate a possible meeting not far below the current share price. Perhaps longer term holders will be happy to wait for a bounce at that point.

stephen
03-02-2005, 11:48 AM
Where have all the bidders gone,
Long time passing,
Where have all the bidders gone
Long time ago,
They've eaten all the sausages,
Ate the snarlers every one,
Filled up on blue sky in a bun,
Looooong ago.

*ahem*

I'm waiting too. Might buy in again soon. When's their next announcement due?

k1w1
03-02-2005, 03:05 PM
Craic, what would happen if you sold the shares just before the divy payment? Then you wouldnt have an income from divys. Often the Sp has risen anyway due to the upcoming dividend. Just a thought.

Thats bloody good, Stephen, you've got a gift there mate ..

Placebo
03-02-2005, 03:44 PM
I enjoyed the run over the last 8 months, sold out a week or two ago.

Thanks for the info Phaedrus, was a major factor in my selling decision (had been considering profit taking on MHI anyway).

craic
03-02-2005, 05:57 PM
Kiwi, had considered that but I want to avoid being classed as a trader.

k1w1
03-02-2005, 08:34 PM
Craic, if your worried about looking like a trader have a look at AHUG, and RRT both run by the highly regarded Record Investments RCD which is mentored by the clever boys of Allco Finance.

Both of these don't pay dividends instead they return capital. AHUG at about 9% per annum tax free and RRT was 10c per unit last year ( worked out about the same)

craic
04-02-2005, 09:11 AM
Kiwi, managed 57% myself if I remember rightly and that did not include dividends.

k1w1
04-02-2005, 09:41 AM
Fair enough Craic. But you could include RRT in your investment horizon without worrying about divy complications. If you included RRT options (RRTO) you may make 114%!

stephen
04-02-2005, 11:39 AM
Last year they announced half year results in the 2nd week of Feb. I presume the big dip is partly people contemplating what this year's results might hold.

winner69
04-02-2005, 07:26 PM
Still plenty of high expectations built into the price at 735 - 19 times last years earnings and 17 times the consensus analysts forecast for this year

So unless MHI come up with a $11-$12M H1 profit next week what will happen?

Flat profit result and a rerating to something like what FPA went down to (14 times earnings) and 550 would not be a surprise

But wouldn't fall that far on the interim but possibly drift down that far over the rest of the year

PS
Snoopy's Buffet analysis on the other channel said that if you wanted a 15% annual return from MHI you should only be paying $2.97

Halebop
05-02-2005, 12:30 AM
Snoopy's assumptions in his MHI calculations assumed very low real growth in earnings between now and 2009 (His estimates have earnings growing from 2004's 39.1 CPS to 45.2 CPS in 2009, or a compound 3.2% pa).

He also assumed a termination PE of 13.1. Perhaps a solid PE ratio in a bear market but not otherwise, particularly if MHI achieve some of their global expansion plans.

Fish Broker
05-02-2005, 10:28 AM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

....... Flat profit result and a rerating to something like what FPA went down to (14 times earnings) and 550 would not be a surprise.....


Wouldn't that be a buy!! Bring on the second opportunity for those of us who procrastinated and missed last time when it was in the $5 range and when it seemed to struggle forever to break $6.

I find this a little ironic however - BGR and WHS up - MHI down - and which is the better retailer??

KJ
05-02-2005, 10:32 AM
It should be interesting to see the reaction to MHI result next week as the retail sector appears to be going out of favour.

If you exclude WHS and BGR (poor management)are retail earnings really starting to slide? Historically low rates of unemployment should underpin this.

PPL and HLG both doing well.HLG on a forward PE of about 13.

So where does this leave MHI? IMO they would need a NPAT in the $12m to $13m range to stop the slide-and the PE settle at around 14 or 15.Last yr first half $10.9m.

Negative-the $NZ cross rate.This will not help-up from .88 to .92.
My guess is a profit around $12m.

Hold NIL.

Fish Broker
05-02-2005, 04:26 PM
quote:Originally posted by KJ


Negative-the $NZ cross rate....


This could on the other hand be seen as a [u]positive</u> as while MHI will lose translating their AUD and CAD earnings back to NZD they will gain an advantage on anything they import - which may be significant.

Depends on where they source their stock and raw materials from, also what their FX cover policies are too will impact ... Another factor is whether they have any borrowings and how or if these are covered or hedged ...

Might have togo have a look at a report and see if I can figure this one out.

winner69
05-02-2005, 06:31 PM
quote:Originally posted by Halebop

Snoopy's assumptions in his MHI calculations assumed very low real growth in earnings between now and 2009 (His estimates have earnings growing from 2004's 39.1 CPS to 45.2 CPS in 2009, or a compound 3.2% pa).

He also assumed a termination PE of 13.1. Perhaps a solid PE ratio in a bear market but not otherwise, particularly if MHI achieve some of their global expansion plans.



In the 4 years between 1999 and 2003 earnings growth was only 3.4% per year(on sales CAGR of 9.4%

Question is was 2004 a year out of the ordinary and that huge 47% increase in earnings a flash in the pan?

Market seems to be saying it was

Halebop
05-02-2005, 09:54 PM
MHI is a cyclical company. Once every 2 to 4 years they turn in low or slightly negative growth. 2003 was one of those years. Despite this, compound Net Profit After Tax growth was 7.2% per annum over this period.

Just as they have cyclical lows, once every 4 or so years they "surprise" the market with a big lift in earnings that they manage to maintain.

If you cut that analysis back by one year to 2002 NPAT rises to a compound 13.1%. If you send it forward to 2004 it rises to a compound 11.4%.

Overall though, a 4 year period is not statistically significant. Looking at a statistically significant 7 year period NPAT rose 192% to 2004 or around 16.5% per annum compounding.

To a New Zealand resident MHI's dividend stream provided an average 4.73% return per annum based on a fully franked dividend and an average PE multiple of 13.1. During this period they consistently distributed 50 to 57% of net operating earnings back to shareholders while internally funding expansion. With a simple and understandable business and growth model in place, its easy to predict how MHI can keep this momentum of internal growth and highish distributions.

The market is not worried about the "repeatability" of MHI's earnings, their business model or cost structures. They are worried about the cyclical trading environment in Australia and New Zealand. Too many retailers are admitting things are a bit hard right now.

On the share price front it is still too rich for my mean spirit. No offence to holders but if earnings did take a hit this year then the PE could probably take one too. I'd consider it a buying opportunity. MHI is definately on my "meets criteria" list.

winner69
06-02-2005, 07:37 AM
Halebop good stuff and we seem to be on the same page ...

MHI have a great business model but like you our 'mean spirit' keeps us out at current prices

But isn't that what Snoopy's Buffett thing on the other channel was essentially saying

Steve
06-02-2005, 12:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Also, while many commodity retailers are feeling the pinch, I note that many 'luxury' retailers are having an okay time ... will we be supprised? Lets hope so. :)

I agree Belg. MHI is not a 'discounter' like BGR & WHS, but is a 'retailer' like HLG & PPL. This could indicate that it won't be a negative surprise?...

KJ
06-02-2005, 01:18 PM
Good post Halebop although I would not call MHI cyclical.

EPS...1998 18.7c
1999 22.8c
2000 25.8c
2001 26.0c
2002 32.9c
2003 30.0c
2004 39.1c

Sales increased every yr from $141m in 1998 to $260m in 2004.

Excellent growth apart from 2003 which was the odd yr out rather than 2004.

2003 fall caused by restructuring,one-offs,and the high start up costs in Canada (first yr loss over $2m).There will be the odd set back when coys are growing as rapidly as this.

I agree that if earnings take a hit the PE will also.I would like to get back in so will wait and see but I am not expecting an earnings drop in which case sp may not have much more downside.

winner69
06-02-2005, 01:46 PM
On Business Sunday today .... this conservative dude is 83% in cash ... BUT

[transcript]

Moore: Wayne Peters made his money on the professional squash circuit in Germany, came back to Australia and opened a chain of photographic stores, which later became Kodak Express, sold up and used the proceeds to play the market. Before long he started Peters Macgregor Capital Management. On average it's returned 32 per cent a year. Almost twelve months ago he launched his listed investment company, and "eighty three per cent" of his funds are still in cash.

Peters: That is historically high for us, but that can swing very quickly. Clearly what we draw from that is that the market is fully if not overvalued, and if you can't find opportunities, then cash is the best default position.

Moore: Being overly cautious?

Peters: No.

Moore: In fact Wayne Peters holds only five stocks, and only one in our region.

Peters: Michael Hill International, it's an Australasian retailer, a jewellery retailer, it has some 100 odd shops here in Australia, and that's a company that we've owned for eight years and I hope to own for another eight years at least.

Moore: And that's the best value you can see in what you like in this market?

Peters: Absolutely, yes.

Moore: At the end of '05 will you still be 83% cash?

Peters: I have no idea.

patsy
06-02-2005, 05:26 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

On Business Sunday today .... this conservative dude is 83% in cash ... BUT


Wayne Peters is a director of MHI and bought some $2M worth of MHI when the stock was around $4.5 for the fund he manages; this was before he launched PET in the AUX, his LIC.

Halebop
06-02-2005, 09:26 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

Halebop good stuff and we seem to be on the same page ...

MHI have a great business model but like you our 'mean spirit' keeps us out at current prices

But isn't that what Snoopy's Buffett thing on the other channel was essentially saying


Thats cool. I wasn't being an argumentative B'tard. I just think Snoopy's assumptions were lowish and that drastically affected his "fair value" outcome when looking for a 15% return.

I suspect even the current share price would deliver 15%+ pa over the next 7 years or so. Not sure I'd want to be proved wrong though - at Snoopy's price I'd be committing a cardinal sin by averaging down!

All eyes on the next result then. Despite being a fanboy as a non holder a can't help wanting it to be a bit subdued!

craic
07-02-2005, 10:18 AM
Down another 30 cps ouch! This has to be moving towards one of the bargains of the summer?

stephen
07-02-2005, 11:13 AM
$7.20 is around fair value, based on what we know so far.

Once we hear the announcement, then we can say whether it's a bargain or not.

KJ
07-02-2005, 12:27 PM
I wonder if they would consider a share split sometime?

duncan macgregor
08-02-2005, 10:54 AM
Great how this share drops levels off then shoots up. It is almost like we were talking about different companies. Over reaction both ways will turn its self into a good buy when it stops down trending. macdunk

Phaedrus
18-02-2005, 07:22 AM
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/MHI218001.gif

Gryffyn
18-02-2005, 08:04 AM
Another good chart thanks Phaedrus.

Any chance of one for GPG? Ideal share for chartists as it is so quiet on announcements and news.

Liberty
18-02-2005, 08:30 AM
I bought yesterday on the basis of the trendline break. Stoploss set at 708. I wouldn't be surprised to see some resistance at around 780 though.

The trendline break nicely coincided with the good HY result announcement; thus fundamentally I am happy to continue trading this excellent stock.

KJ is right, it is no bargain, but the higher PE reflects, I believe, the history of the company in achieving steady, compounding growth.

I wonder at what point they might consider a share split to increase liquidity?

rmbbrave
15-04-2005, 02:25 PM
MHI has fallen from over $8 to nearly $7 in a week!

Does anyone know if there is a special reason for this?

KJ
15-04-2005, 04:28 PM
Flat last quarter sales-announcement 8 April-now catching up with the rest of the market.

k1w1
15-04-2005, 05:16 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

MHI has fallen from over $8 to nearly $7 in a week!

Does anyone know if there is a special reason for this?


MHI:Blue Sky & Sausages For Sale Thread gaining wider circulation outside the STrader community.

skinny
15-04-2005, 08:00 PM
Alas I can't comment on NZ shares any longer, but k1w1 :D:D

Anna Naum
15-04-2005, 09:07 PM
Fisher Funds own this stock

rmbbrave
23-08-2005, 10:00 AM
Profit up 9.6%, Dividend up 9.5%, SP down 6.5%. The same thing happened 6 months ago - only the drop was greater. The SP shot back up a few days later.



19 Aug 2005 04:18
FLLYR: MHI: FY to 30/06/06 $16,510M ($15,060M) +9.6% DIV 14cps

Michael Hill International Limited
For Full Year Ended 30/06/05
This Report has been prepared in a manner which complies with generally
accepted accounting practice and gives a true and fair view of the matters to
which the report relates and is based on audited accounts.

CONSOLIDATED OPERATING STATEMENT
Current Full Year NZ$16,510,000; Up 9.6%:Previous Corresponding Full Year
NZ$15,060,000

Total Operating Revenue : $273,157,000

OPERATING SURPLUS BEFORE UNUSUAL ITEMS AND TAX: $24,351,000

Unusual items for separate disclosure : Nil

OPERATING SURPLUS BEFORE TAX : $24,351,000

Less tax on operating profit : $7,841,000

OPERATING SURPLUS AFTER TAX BUT BEFORE MINORITY INTERESTS :$16,510,000

Less minority interests: Nil

Equity earnings: Nil

OPERATING SURPLUS AFTER TAX ATTRIBUTABLE TO MEMBERS OF LISTED ISSUER:
$16,510,000

Extraordinary items after tax attributable to Members of the Listed Issuer:
nil

OPERATING SURPLUS AND EXTRAORDINARY ITEMS AFTER TAX ATTRIBUTABLE TO MEMBERS
OF THE LISTED ISSUER: $16,510,000
Earnings per share : 42.8 cps

Final Dividend : 14 cps

Date Payable: 17/10/05

Imputation tax credit on latest dividend 6.895518 cents

Summary Of Commentary:

Chairman''s Statement
1. Profit Announcement
Michael Hill International has today announced a record tax paid profit of
$16,510,000 for the 12 months ended 30 June 2005, 9.6% up on the previous
year.
Group sales increased by 4.5 % to $271,573,000 (2004 - $259,777,000).

The results for the year represent an excellent 26.8 % return on average
shareholder''s funds (2004 - 28%), a return on average total assets of 13%
(2004 - 13%) and the Board is pleased with the overall result.

Segment Results
As stated in the half year results, the company has redefined its
geographical reporting segments to better reflect the financial performance
of each segment. The segments now reported on reflect the performance of the
company''s retail operations in each segment and exclude non-core retail
activities such as manufacturing, wholesale and distribution, and other
general corporate expenses. The Directors believe this change will better
inform the readers of the financial performance of our geographic segments.

New Zealand Operations
The New Zealand Company performed well with one new store being opened at
Glenfield in Auckland during the year. Revenue increased by 0.2% to
$86,459,000, with operating profit down 0.2% from $9,879,000 to $9,854,000.
Operating profit as a percentage of revenue was steady at 11.4%. Sales
during the second half of the year were down on expectations as the economic
conditions tightened in New Zealand.

Same store sales decreased by 1 % for the 12 months (last year 1.2%
increase).
Total stores operating in New Zealand at 30 June 2005 were 47.

Australian Operations
The Australian Company had a solid year and improved its revenue by 5.4% for
the 12-month period (in NZ dollars) with operating profit up 7.6% from
NZ$16,530,000 to NZ$17,792,000.
In Australian dollars, total sales were up 10.2% to A$161,806,000 and
operating profit up 12.5% to A$16,368,000.
Same store sales improved by 1.6% for the 12 months in Australian dollars.
As with New Zealand, sales during the second half were down on expectations
as economic conditions tightened.
The exchange rate used for the translation of the Australian surplus was .92
(2004 - .88).

During the course of the year, a further ten stores were opened at the
following locations:
Bunbury Forum in West Australia
Casula Mall in Sydney
Bay Village in New South Wales
Maryborough in Queensland
Batemans Bay in New South Wales
Grand Central Toowoomba in Queensland
Parkmore in Melbourne
Raymond Terrace in New South Wales
Mirrabooka Square in Perth
The Pines in Melbo

Halebop
23-08-2005, 11:43 AM
A strong result in the current environment, albeit I thought they would manage EPS of 44 cents. From the share price reaction I suspect the market agrees although for MHI it tends to voice it's opinion on ever low volumes.

New Zealand is showing its mature development. Still seems to be puff left in Australia albeit rolling out 10 stores doesn't have the same impact it used to with 102 now open.

Canada looks very positive. In 5 years time it will be bigger than the New Zealand operation. Look for a 4th Country opening in 2 to 3 years once Canada is earning.

Fundamentally for me the share price has come back to within 50% of some of my higher DCF values, assuming they can continue to manage something like historic 14% growth rates. Weak technicals continue to keep me out.

Gryffyn
23-08-2005, 11:43 AM
Where's the chart?

rmbbrave
26-09-2005, 10:44 PM
In the last 6 months MHI has been trading between 7.4 and 7.6.

But the SP has gone on a steep dive below this twice and then shot back up into it's usual range again just as quick.

I have bought on both of these dips and sold soon after, for a small profit.

The SP looks like it might be at the start of another dip.

Is this a recognised TA pattern? If so does it indicate anything?

limegreen
27-09-2005, 09:07 AM
I don't think it's a 'pattern' per se, but there is something 'interesting' going on. Overall, MHI is trading in a very narrow range. I'm not precisely sure of the mechanics, but looking at the announcements and SSHs there is clearly a buyer in the market, but who appears to be (at this stage) mostly mopping up small sellers. I'm not sure why the price keeps dropping. Perhaps Mr Peters and his associates stop buying, wait for nerves to set in, and when the price really starts falling and there is a row of willing sellers, they swoop[?]. Certainly, the stays static on very thin volume, falls on thin volume, and then rises on large volume. Thus, if the price does drop again, it seems possible that there may be another big buy order. If the buy order doesn't come through, then the price may not rebound. Will you call his bluff?

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/mhi26sep05.gif

Phaedrus
27-09-2005, 09:25 AM
MHI is back to where it was a year ago. The current "trading range" is too narrow to trade effectively. Rmbbrave, you are either very skillful or very lucky! I would suggest, though, that if you want to trade short-term like this, there are other stocks more suitable than MHI.

The key to what is going on here lies with Limegreen's observation that the price "falls on thin volume, and then rises on large volume". This is quantified and easily seen in the rising On Balance Volume plot he has included.
This stock is being accumulated by people with more patience than I have!

limegreen
27-09-2005, 09:36 AM
D'oh! I forgot to mention the OBV (it wasn't there by accident).

As to skillful v. lucky: it really just depends on what you think the odds are of the buyers continuing to push the price back up if it drops. It is a strategy of sorts, but who knows how long it will play out for.

Gryffyn
27-09-2005, 09:42 AM
Where's k9 for some observations on his fave stock?

rmbbrave
27-09-2005, 02:41 PM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

Rmbbrave, you are either very skillful or very lucky!


I'm probably just lucky.

k1w1
27-09-2005, 03:44 PM
MHI's Australian rival ANC has done nothing with its SP either, in fact it has dropped. Were it not for the new stores neither would have grown their sales and revenues. When that is your biggest market and you are regarded as a growth stock, it means MHI better push on to the summit or risk being taken behind the woodshed by the market.

rmbbrave
28-09-2005, 07:05 PM
Huge volume again today!

A big drop on small volume followed by a big rise on large volume - and Splitenz reckon history never repeats!

Mine (bought for 7.30) are for sale at 7.50.

Will my "luck" hold for a third time?

If it does, I might have to make a new handle - How about "rmblucky"? Or if I start to suffer from delusions of granduer, "rmbskillful".

Snow Leopard
28-09-2005, 07:21 PM
Just quietly acknowledge your stock-trading genius to yourself and wait others to recognise it.
if you start blowing your own trumpet we may come up with a new handle of our own for you.

regards

Paper Tiger

PS You is doing good, boy!

rmbbrave
29-09-2005, 01:01 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

Huge volume again today!

A big drop on small volume followed by a big rise on large volume - and Splitenz reckon history never repeats!

Mine (bought for 7.30) are for sale at 7.50.

Will my "luck" hold for a third time?

If it does, I might have to make a new handle - How about "rmblucky"? Or if I start to suffer from delusions of granduer, "rmbskillful".


Just under half the share I bought for 7.30 have sold just for 7.50 in the first trade of the day for MHI.

My "luck" is still holding.

KJ
29-09-2005, 01:36 PM
Rmbbrave-good on you -but is it worth it for about 3% before broker fees and tax?

limegreen
29-09-2005, 01:42 PM
I believe he has an "interesting" tax status, which makes 3% in a day or so quite appealing.

My thought on this MHI situation is that others are getting wise to it, so the price is not dropping as much because people are buying in anticipation of it being pulled back up. i.e., each time this strategy has become less profitable

rmbbrave
29-09-2005, 10:41 PM
quote:Originally posted by KJ

Rmbbrave-good on you -but is it worth it for about 3% before broker fees and tax?


Monday - bought 1400 @ 7.3 - cost 1400*7.30+30 = $10250

Thursday - sold 1400 @ 7.5 - income 1400*7.50-30 = $10470

(I don't pay tax on capital gains - I am an overseas resident for tax purposes.)

Profit $220 (after brokerage and tax)

Was it worth it?

You bet! I usually have to work a day (3 hours) to get that much money.

rmbbrave
29-09-2005, 11:29 PM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

if you want to trade short-term like this, there are other stocks more suitable than MHI.


Please tell us what they are.

CJ
30-09-2005, 03:26 AM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave
(I don't pay tax on capital gains - I am an overseas resident for tax purposes.)

Not sure being non resident makes a difference but that is for another thread.

KJ
30-09-2005, 07:21 AM
Rmbbrave-good for you-did not realise that it would be tax free.

Yes-if you can get a 3 day turnaround cycle that's great.

rmbbrave
30-09-2005, 12:58 PM
quote:Originally posted by CJ


quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave
(I don't pay tax on capital gains - I am an overseas resident for tax purposes.)

Not sure being non resident makes a difference but that is for another thread.


You could be right.

I pay 2% on dividends and interest so I suppose I should pay 2% on profits from trading in NZ as well. That would be about $4 then.

kiwi_on_OE
30-09-2005, 08:42 PM
Sorry for off-subject comment.

2% on div? I thought that was just interest, and that divs had 10-15% witholding tax deducted?

rmbbrave
30-09-2005, 09:36 PM
You're right OE Kiwi - kind of.

According to my CEN didvidend statement.

I had 1300 shares and the divie was 10 cps.

So the dividend would be $130. But I also get a supplementary dividend of 1.7647 cps ($22.94) because I am a non-NZ resident - so the Total dividend for tax purposes is $152.94.

This figure is then taxed at 15% ie $22.94 which gives a Net Dividend of $130.

So basically the tax rate was zero.


In conclusion then...

Interest is taxed at 2%
Dividends have no tax
And profits from trading could be 2% or 15% or 0% - who knows?

marcus_milo
06-10-2005, 08:12 PM
quote:
(I don't pay tax on capital gains - I am an overseas resident for tax purposes.)


Interesting. What does the country you are resident in say about your capital gains. I am also not Tax Resident in New Zealand, but my friendly local tax man has the same rules about captial gains, you trade for profit, rather than investment, you pay tax.

Unless you are not telling the of course ;)

kiwi_on_OE
08-10-2005, 02:15 AM
Good looking sales figures for the first 1/4 of the year. Aus now provides 3/4 of sales.

NZ same stores up 5.6%
Aus same stores up 5.4%
Can same stores up 13.3%
Tot same stores up 5.7%

NZ all stores up 8.0%
Aus all stores up 13.8%
Can all stores up 88.9%
Tot all stores up 13.8%

rmbbrave
05-11-2005, 10:22 AM
Jeweller 'tough enough'
05 November 2005
By GARETH VAUGHAN

Tougher times may be coming, but Michael Hill does not seem worried.


Mr Hill, chairman of jeweller Michael Hill International, told yesterday's annual meeting in Auckland that tougher trading conditions might "sort a few people out".

The company Michael Hill was solid, nimble and mean enough to be able to cope, Mr Hill said.

Furthermore, there could be some benefits as shopping centres might have to review "ridiculous" rental renewals and finding staff might get easier.

"Just keep your shares in that bottom draw. I don't think we'll disappoint you."

Sales in the three months to September rose 13.8 per cent to $56.6 million, with same-store sales up 5.7 per cent.

But trading conditions in Australia, where the jeweller makes 65 per cent of its revenue, had toughened up, chief executive Mike P****ll said. October had been flat.

"We're just not sure where the next quarter will go," he said.

General retailing conditions were deteriorating with high petrol prices hitting consumer confidence, Mr P****ll said. Heading into November and December, when the company makes a big chunk of its profit, "anything" could happen.

Mr Hill said the expansion drive would continue, focusing on "controlled, profitable" growth.

Michael Hill, which began as one jewellery shop in Whangarei in 1979, now comprises 156 stores. Of these, 102 are in Australia, 47 in New Zealand and seven in Canada. More are imminent.

Mr Hill said the company was opening a shop every two weeks and would have 2000 staff by Christmas.

There was potential in Australia for 150, or possibly more than 200 stores. There was also potential for "200-odd" shops in Canada, with the company likely to focus on the oil-rich province of Alberta during 2006 after securing its base in the Vancouver area.

Michael Hill planned to open two stores in New Zealand this year.

The company's shares closed at $7.65, up 5 cents.

NOTE : MHI's chief executive is Mike Par$ell

FYA4999
05-11-2005, 12:11 PM
Thanks for the footnote - I was wondering what the **** was for!

Halebop
06-12-2005, 11:59 AM
Belg I'm not certain that the impact of a rising gold price is bad for Jewellers but I'd be pretty confident it isn't good.

In any case MHI are a quality company that you must pay a quality price for in order to participate. I'm still not in because the value doesn't quite hit my benchmark hurldes, although I've had a spare cash lying around of late and have been tempted to dribble little buy orders in (the only way to buy a company this thinly traded). Apologies to holders but I'm still waiting out for the day they get hammered by a bad trading quarter...

Phaedrus
20-12-2005, 06:23 PM
MHI has moved more or less sideways for a year or more. Over this time there have been a few minor trends and multiple support/resistance levels. MHI would need to breakout above $8.35 to re-establish its old long-term uptrend.
While this is a stock that I would not want to be holding, I do not see it as a good "shorting" prospect either. Look how the OBV continues to rise - this stock is being accumulated, not distributed.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/MHI1220001.gif

Halebop
10-01-2006, 03:33 PM
6 months to December 2005: Australian sales down 2.3% (same store -5.3% in A$). NZ up 1.6% and Canada up 9.9%. Profit forecast to be down $0.7m or so for the half year versus last year.

MHI down almost 8% at time of posting. This could be the bad quarterly news paitent accumulators have been waiting for.

DCF Estimate for MHI: $14'ish
Wait for price below $7 and accumulate on the next uptrend.

Lizard
10-01-2006, 03:50 PM
Halebop, I'm sure your DCF is far more accurate, but mine only comes in at $6.89....

A good share though, and I agree that it is an accumulate below $7.

Halebop
10-01-2006, 04:51 PM
Hi Liz,

I guess it all comes down to what parameters you plug in. DCF is always wrong in any case. I always use a 10% cost of capital because my metrics only get me this far into analysis with quality companies but will not go so far as Buffett and use a risk free rate of return - might be something like a $20+ MHI valuation if this was the case...

Depending on the direction of the wind I'll use a termination growth rate of either NIL, the most conservative, or 3%, my long term guesstimate of inflation.

For a quality company with a clear and defined growth path and a history of delivery I'll use something aproximating their growth rate over the last 7 to 10 years. Because MHI fits this bill I'm happy to assume a 14% to 15% growth rate for 10 years with a 3% termination rate. Plug in 10% cost of capital and this derives a $13 to $14 valuation.

While this might be demanding they have a history of delivering these kind of returns while maintaining high dividends to boot. To get a valuation of $6.89 on 10% discount/3% termination rates, growth would be just 5.5% per annum. Using a more conservative 0% termination rate requires 8.2% growth rate to reach the same number. I think both of these are too low but you may be looking ahead less than 10 years as well.

Any number could be correct but I prefer to stick with the known quantities (historical growth rates) than really attempt to auger the future. Quality management tends to continue to be quality management. MHI's goal of opening lots of stores (I think 2,000?) is easy to understand, duplicatable and given time, achievable. Using the 50% margin of error rule means I can only buy if the price is below 50% of valuation anyway. This goes some way towards insulating me from optimistic assumptions of continued outperformance.

Edit: Fixed various illiteracies.

Lizard
10-01-2006, 05:26 PM
Hi Halebop, Funnily enough (since I developed this spreadsheet back in 1998 I think), I also have 10% rate on everything and mostly use 3% for terminal growth - often, but not always, for everything beyond 5 years. However, my choice of "cashflow" is probably a little different and I also have a funny "fudge factor" which modifies all my DCF's. This is just a historic quirk which seemed to work and bring them all in line with analyst figures - after all, what the analysts tell the institutions its worth is probably going to have more impact in the shorter term than my own calculation!

I guess I find that using 15% growth may turn out to be correct for a company like MHI, but institutional analysts are unlikely to be that courageous, and anything beyond 5 years will more than likely be "normalised" down to less than 5%. Using 15% therefore carries a risk that I might have to wait 5 years for anyone else to notice the company!

Historically, I go for 33% below valuation. I also do a DCF for 1 year out and see how much it changes by - add the % change to the dividend yield and look for total 15% - which, now that I've heard of it, probably gives a similar indicator to using the dividend growth model...

But, as you say, while these things suggest value (and usually work out over timeframes of 3 years or more) the correlation can be less than reliable - particularly at peaks and troughs in the cycle - so now make more allowance for management quality and market sentiment and more willing to buy closer to full value for a company with solid management history.

Lizard
10-01-2006, 06:35 PM
Hi Belg,

My cashflow estimates sometimes encompass detailed analysis - and often include an exchange rate influence of some kind. But in this case, they are mostly based on a fairly consistent rate of expansion and some limited cyclical behaviour. In this case, I have not attempted to take into account exchange rates to any great extent, given that I would also need to factor in gold (and other commodity) prices and elasticity of demand...... surprisingly, detailed analysis of short-term cashflows is not often worth the effort (there are some exceptions where future profits are a direct result of activity in preceding years).

I know you like opportunistic buying on downward spikes, but re-read Halebops advice...."Wait for price below $7 and accumulate on the next uptrend"

Halebop
10-01-2006, 09:00 PM
Hi Belg (nice to see you at the "business end" of the forum!),

Pretty much what Liz said. I make no attempt to factor exchange rates with a company like this. There would not be a reliable probability model for it anyway. Intuitively it seems likely the A$ will rise versus the NZ$ but I haven't attempted to model it. Over time exchange rate conversions will become both more complex and less useful in MHIs case as they open in new markets. For now it's "good enough" for me to think the soft Australian results may receive a boost from an improved NZ$ exchange rate conversion but within the context of looking back 10 years and looking forward 10 years they aren't relevent unless you believe some major structural or catastrophic change is due.

rmbbrave
10-01-2006, 11:58 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

In the last 6 months MHI has been trading between 7.4 and 7.6.

But the SP has gone on a steep dive below this twice and then shot back up into it's usual range again just as quick.

I have bought on both of these dips and sold soon after, for a small profit.

The SP looks like it might be at the start of another dip.

Is this a recognised TA pattern? If so does it indicate anything?


Time for Rmb"lucky" to ride again my intrepid traders.

Unfortunately tomorrow is not a good day for me to be trading shares as my winter holidays are now at an end and it is back to 3 hours days for yours truly.

After 3 hours of hard slog I then have a dentists appointment at 1:30 Japan time so I will miss most of tomorrow's trading on MHI.

If I am really lucky MHI may wait for me until Thursday - I have the morning off.

Sky Tower
11-01-2006, 05:44 AM
Michael Hill sales lose lustre

11.01.06
By Michelle Dacruz
From NZ Herald

Jeweller Michael Hill International issued a profit warning yesterday after a fall in sales in its biggest market, Australia.

The retailer said sales in Australia were down 2.3 per cent in the six months to December. Australian same-store sales - excluding stores opened in the past year - were down 4.3 per cent.

It said net profit in the six months to December was now forecast to be between $10.5 million and $11.5 million.

It had not previously set a forecast for the period, but analysts had expected a first-half net profit of $13 million or more.

Chief executive Mike P****ll said that even though Australian sales had been flat leading up to Christmas, the extent of the slowdown had been a surprise.

"We sensed a tightening of the market in October and November when sales were relatively flat, but the Christmas period was definitely harder than we anticipated," he said.

"Demand was not to the level that we anticipated and there was a lot of competitive activity which put a bit of pressure on margins as well."

With 158 stores catering to mid-range jewellery consumers, Michael Hill generates nearly two-thirds of its revenue from Australia.

While there is anecdotal evidence that holiday retail trading in Australia was softer than expected, Forsyth Barr analyst Guy Hallwright said Michael Hill's warning represented a more significant decline than was probably being seen across the broader retail sector.

Hallwright said Michael Hill's Australian sales were a "a substantial slowdown" compared with early evidence of holiday trading in Australia. "The result is obviously going to be well below what the market expected."

New Zealand sales were up 1.6 per cent and Canadian sales up 9.9 per cent on the earlier period.

The company made a net profit of $12.2 million in the six months to December 2004 but will restate that result based on new international accounting standards.

Major von Tempsky
11-01-2006, 10:38 AM
Did the chart predict the profit warning, he said, sotto voce....

duncan macgregor
11-01-2006, 10:46 AM
MVT, The chart told me not to have shares in the company 10 months ago. Only the fundamentalists would be holding this stock at this time so let them worry about profit problems. macdunk

Gryffyn
11-01-2006, 11:10 AM
quote:Originally posted by Major von Tempsky

Did the chart predict the profit warning, he said, sotto voce....

Note that P the issuer of said chart stated that it was not a stock he would want to be holding.

Phaedrus
11-01-2006, 12:24 PM
Major, you should know by now that charts cannot predict the future. Nothing can. I am heartily sick and tired of trying to get this point through to you. Not only do you fail to understand what charts can't do, you also seem to be totally incapable of appreciating what charts can do. Specifically, with regard to MHI :-
The chart indicated a clear SELL on this stock at +/-$8 OVER A YEAR AGO. (Posted on 3/12/04, page 3 of this thread). Nicely timed eh? Where was your warning? Where was your advice to quit MHI?

11 days later on 14/12/04 I posted the words "With todays close of $7.80, MHI is now in a downtrend" (page 3 of this thread). That's a [u]DOWNTREND </u>MvT, those things it pays to keep out of - Capiche? Again, where was your MHI warning at around this time? (OVER A YEAR AGO) Look at the chart and you will see that [u]more than a year later that same downtrend is still in effect</u>. The 14/12/04 post turned out to be particularly apposite - why don't you read it?

Since that time, MHI has remained in a shallow downtrend and has also encountered resistance at $8.10 or so. (But then you don't "believe" in Support or Resistance do you?) Short-term MHI traders would have exited on the recent trendline break marked with a red arrow. I shouldn't have to point this out to you, but all this was of course well before the drop occasioned by the profit warning.

You see MvT, there is no need to even attempt to predict the future. All you have to do is react appropriately to significant price movements as they occur. This is what charts depict. Not the future. I doubt that you will EVER understand this simple point.

Charts got users out of MHI before the downtrend began. (See page 3)
Charts got users out of MHI before the meltdown.

That's all charts can do.
That's all charts need to do.
Get it?

Probably not!

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/MHI111001.gif

Gryffyn
11-01-2006, 12:27 PM
Wasting your breath P.

Lizard
11-01-2006, 01:28 PM
To be fair Phaedrus, this would be a difficult stock to exit and enter on trendline breaks in any significant volumes, because the volumes traded are often quite low. The dip in early 2005 made me nervous enough to get out at prices of $8.05-$8.14 in April, but even with my relatively small holding, it had to be a well-timed sell order...

duncan macgregor
11-01-2006, 02:55 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

To be fair Phaedrus, this would be a difficult stock to exit and enter on trendline breaks in any significant volumes, because the volumes traded are often quite low. The dip in early 2005 made me nervous enough to get out at prices of $8.05-$8.14 in April, but even with my relatively small holding, it had to be a well-timed sell order...

To be really fair it is hard to sell shares in a good company. Pheadrus has his trend lines i have my time line run from my stop loss level. I would probabely have had a 15 pc trailing stop loss running on this one with a 20pc pa time line from that point. I cant be bothered to work it out as i am not an investor in MHI but that is what i would have done. I normally start with a 5pc stop loss then relax it in a steep trend when i buy my second lot. When a share goes sideways its nearly as bad as going down. You must also take into account dividends with your stop loss decisions. macdunk

Snoopy
11-01-2006, 04:17 PM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

MVT, The chart told me not to have shares in the company 10 months ago. Only the fundamentalists would be holding this stock at this time so let them worry about profit problems. macdunk


Not all fundamentalists Macdunk. Here is what I wrote on sharechat in the latter half of 2004.

--------

In assessing the 'terminal value' of the company at the end of my valuation period, I have used the average P/E over the last eight years, which works out at 13.1. Note that both of these figures have gone up since we first started following MHI

The expected compounding rate of return on this share works out to be 4.4%. This is below the rate of return you would expect from government stock, which makes the added risk of holding a share to obtain this income stream not worth it.

The company of course is still fundamentally excellent. But Mr Market has priced the shares so high that MHI are going to have to roll out stores significantly faster than they have in the past - and profitably, to meet the expectations of Mr Market. If Warren owned this share he would be selling his holding while the price remained so far above fair value.

--------

I would have been out at $7.86, at a very similar price point to Phaedrus based on his charting.

SNOOPY

Lizard
11-01-2006, 04:32 PM
Being "nice" MacDunk, and assuming you'd been smart enough to buy in mid-2003 at $4.20, then (not allowing for divis), your timeline would not kick you out until below about $6.62 at this point...

The TA's are out. The FA's are out and, right now, you are losing... [}:)];)

rmbbrave
11-01-2006, 05:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Wasting your breath P.


Just like his geography teacher was.

duncan macgregor
11-01-2006, 08:09 PM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

MVT, The chart told me not to have shares in the company 10 months ago. Only the fundamentalists would be holding this stock at this time so let them worry about profit problems. macdunk

Liz, sorry to diss apoint you try and twist it in a different way next time. macdunk

rmbbrave
11-01-2006, 08:47 PM
No Xmas jingle for jewellery retailer
11 January 2006
By GARETH VAUGHAN

Jewellery retailer Michael Hill International is warning profit for the second half of 2005 will fall well below analysts' forecasts because of lower Christmas sales and tighter margins in Australia than it expected.


Same-store sales in Australia were down 5.3 per cent from the 2004 December quarter, the company said yesterday.

Michael Hill earns about 65 per cent of its revenue in Australia.

The company's shares fell 60c, or 7.7 per cent, to $7.20 yesterday though only 62,400 shares were traded.

"Where we really got knocked around in the Australian business was December," chief executive Mike P****ll said. "Most of the retailers here (Australia) went on sale early so it was a double combination of difficult sales and a slight squeeze on margins."

Michael Hill expected between $10.5 million and $11.5 million profit for the six months to December 31 - down from $12.2 million in the same period of 2004.

The 2004 figure will be restated to conform with International Financial Reporting Standards, which Michael Hill adopted last July. Full results will be made public on February 16.

Though the company had not previously given a second-half forecast, yesterday's guidance is well below expectations for profit between $13 million and $13.5 million.

"Basically we just looked at the consensus forecasts of the analysts and we're going to come up short of that so we felt we had to put a statement out," Mr P****ll said.

"When we look back internally in our business there's nothing we really feel we could have done a hell of a lot better."

Forsyth Barr analyst Guy Hallwright had been anticipating more than $13 million profit for the company. He was surprised at how far Michael Hill's Australian same-store sales fell and suggested the jeweller might have got its promotional activity wrong.

More broadly, Australian retail sales fell 0.1 per cent in November versus expectations for a 0.3 per cent rise. Mr Hallwright said there was also talk of a "fairly soft" December.

Rival Australian jewellers are yet to report Christmas sales.

Michael Hill's New Zealand sales rose 1.6 per cent during the six months, and sales at the company's fledgling Canadian operations gained 9.9 per cent. However, Australian sales fell 2.3 per cent. Mr P****ll said the New Zealand business traded satisfactorily through December with margins holding up.

Warren Couillault, chief investment officer at Fisher Funds, which holds 10.79 per cent of Michael Hill, described the profit warning as a "short-term aberration" caused by difficult Christmas trading. He said the solid Canadian growth was important.

"That's where any shareholder would be looking for the company to achieve positives because that's where their whole future is - growing in another market," Mr Couillault said.

Mr P****ll was cautious about trading prospects in 2006. He said it was too early to tell how the business would perform.

"I don't think it's going to be buoyant, put it that way," he said.

Lizard
11-01-2006, 08:50 PM
Did I twist it MacDunk? No offence, but I'm not sure how... Snoopy and Phaedrus were giving their views on a theoretical basis and, as you mentioned your timeline method, I thought it would be interesting to see how it stacked up.

You suggest your "timeline" method but then say you wouldn't have been holding due to the chart - yet, by my calculation, your timeline method would still have had you holding. So I am confused as to how you can have it both ways.

I note you were happy enough to assert that fundamentalists would still be holding without providing evidence as to why (and in fact, from this forum, it appears many aren't).

Cheers, Liz

duncan macgregor
11-01-2006, 09:20 PM
LIZ, when a share goes sideways i am out. I really havent followed MHI its not in my buy program. I have not worked out what my buy or sell would be so perhaps you might enlighten me.
I buy a share with a a 5pc stoploss. when it proves its self, i buy a second helping and ease the stop loss. I stated that a share in a steep uptrend my trailing stop loss might ease to 15pc. My time line is taken from my stop loss level at a 20pc rise plus dividends pa. The fundamentalists are still holding because it is A good sound company nothing has changed. perhaps you might tell me with my system where i bought and when then i sold and why. My buy program is based on straight fundamental analysis. macdunk
discl nil so far

Lizard
11-01-2006, 09:48 PM
MacDunk, I thought I had already done what you ask by giving you a buy price of $4.20 in mid-2003 and calculating your timeline net of dividends to be at $6.62. Maybe $4.20 was a little premature seeing as you would hardly have called it a steep uptrend at that point. So I will let you have my buy price of $4.70 near the beginning of 2004 (rough estimate - I can't remember if this is exact and too lazy to look it up). After two years at 20% (excluding dividends), that would put your timeline at $6.76. I don't think even the sharp spike down in early 2005 would have hit your timeline, given that the timeline would have been at a lower point then.

I disagree with your take on fundamentalists. They consider more than whether it is a good company. They also consider whether the price has become overvalued and whether the economic outlook is favourable. In MHI case, I was selling in April 2005 because the company carried the significant risk associated with a substantially higher P/E than other retailers and was exposed to an increased chance of a retail slowdown in Australia (with potential for a follow-on slow-down in NZ). The spike down in early 2005 demonstrated the risk of this share falling sharply on bad news due to low liquidity, so I decided to take the cautious option and exited when it gave me a second chance...

duncan macgregor
11-01-2006, 10:04 PM
LIZ, if you follow the sp price up with a trailing stop loss as i stated you will find that the stop loss or the time line would have you out very close to pheadrus sell signal. With my system it works of a trailing stop loss not a rigid start figure. the time line is taken from the latest stop loss figure which only rises never drops. Do the sums again and tell me what i might have made. macdunk

Lizard
11-01-2006, 11:26 PM
Fair enough MacDunk. To be honest, I've never run a stop loss, so it is probably easier for you to work this out than me. If you rode it to the peak at approx $8.30, then (assuming I understand correctly), I make your stop loss at 15% below this price to be about $7.05. Your time line would run up from there and have been fairly quickly intercepted and you might have sold at a price slightly above this in Jan 2005 - or that might have just slipped past the line in which case you wouldn't have had your trigger till the big spike down in March - the fall then was so sharp, you probably would have had trouble selling any significant volume on the way down to $6.60.

Apologies if I've misunderstood your method further - I don't want to drag this argument out. If you would have sold around the $8 mark as you say, then fine. For once, all our various methods were in agreement.

But I didn't think your casual claim to superiority over those using fundamental analysis could go unchallenged...

Cheers, Liz

rmbbrave
12-01-2006, 02:09 PM
Brokers cut Michael Hill forecasts
12 January 2006
By GARETH VAUGHAN

Brokers have taken their red pens to profit forecasts for Michael Hill International, helping bring a two-day fall in the jeweller's share price to almost 12 per cent.


Michael Hill shares fell 30 cents, or 4 per cent, to $6.90 yesterday. That follows Tuesday's 7.7 per cent drop after the company warned its interim profit would be up to $3 million below analysts' forecasts.

Forsyth Barr analyst Guy Hallwright said he had cut his 2006 and 2007 profit forecasts by about 16 per cent. Mr Hallwright now expects Michael Hill to post $15.8 million profit this year, down from $16.5 million last year, and a forecast of $18.5 million next year.

ABN Amro cut its 2006 forecast by 20 per cent to $15.3 million. Macquarie Equities analyst Warren Doak is now expecting an $11 million first-half profit, down from $12.5 million, and an annual figure of $15 million.

On Tuesday, Michael Hill said its first-half profit would be $10.5 million to $11.5 million. This was lower than analysts' consensus forecasts of about $13 million because of lower Christmas sales and tighter-than-expected margins in Australia, where it makes about 65 per cent of its revenue. December quarter same-store sales in Australia fell 5.3 per cent.

Mr Doak said Michael Hill was in a sector that was becoming increasingly competitive. It was also sensitive to changes in discretionary consumer spending. Evidence suggested consumers had favoured items such as iPods and video players rather than jewellery this Christmas.

"Certainly the iPod was the wow-factor item for the 2005 Christmas period," Mr Doak said.

Mr Hallwright said the extent to which Michael Hill's lowered profit outlook was related to the company's adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards would not be clear till it reports interim results on February 16.

Gryffyn
12-01-2006, 02:17 PM
Up 5 today. Meow ;)

Dough Boy
12-01-2006, 03:07 PM
Oh no oh no the sky is falling and jewellery is never to be worn again...blah blah...panic ....sell...sell.

Meanwhile I took a nibble yesterday at 690 to add to my holding and will move on to the next stock that is at discount next week.

Ah don't you just love the short-termism of the market.

Gryffyn
12-01-2006, 04:24 PM
DB - I think I'd wait for the mewling to stop.

rmbbrave
13-01-2006, 09:47 AM
Rmb"lucky" rides again!

I have put in an order for 2000 MHI @ 6.95 ...

... And have secured 1511 so far.

Will Rmb"lucky"'s luck hold?

We'll see ...

k1w1
13-01-2006, 12:46 PM
Dead cat bounce.

rmbbrave
13-01-2006, 02:51 PM
quote:Originally posted by k1w1

Dead cat bounce.


Exactly!

I'm hoping to sell soon for a small profit

Halebop
17-02-2006, 03:44 PM
MHI has proved their quality in a tough operating environment. But for an accounting change which transfers $700,000 in costs from the 2nd half to the 1st, their profit would be unchanged from the same period last year. The 6% rise in revenue compared favourably with ANC's 6.6% sales decline. Sales were assisted by a steady increase in Australian store numbers (but per store sales were down 2.4% in a softer trading environment) and a continued roll out of Canadian units. Canada scored a maiden operating profit at a modest $200,000. The rapid increase in scale and improvement in profitability bodes well for future years. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw MHI open in a 4th market within 3, maybe even 2 years.

By my metrics it's currently priced for 5% growth (EPS 39c, Growth 5% falling to to 3% after 10 years, Discount Rate 10%). At a historical 14% growth rate NPV is around $13. So in the mid six $s MHI is a bargain but I'll be awaiting a clear up-trend signal before buying.

kiwi_on_OE
18-02-2006, 02:04 AM
I wonder what the US market would be like for MHI. It shouldn't be too hard for them to pop over the border if they want to. It might even be easier to keep their business on the west coast of Can/US than it would be to open shops on the east coast of Canada.

Halebop
18-02-2006, 09:17 AM
I agree although moving across Canada could be useful in the long term because it would prod them to develop French speaking systems and processes. This could facilitate them entering France.

rmbbrave
22-03-2006, 02:26 PM
quote:Originally posted by k1w1

Dead cat bounce.


That's some bounce - right up to 7.60.

rmbbrave
22-03-2006, 02:27 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

Rmb"lucky" rides again!

I have put in an order for 2000 MHI @ 6.95 ...

... And have secured 1511 so far.

Will Rmb"lucky"'s luck hold?

We'll see ...



... I never sold the 2000 I bought in the middle of Jan and now they're up to 7.60.

Still lucky.

stephen
22-03-2006, 02:51 PM
Yes, I'm regretting not buying around $7 but I hadn't the spare cash, and couldn't decide what I would rather sell to fund it.

coge
05-04-2006, 01:01 PM
Strange how MHI always lags behind the NZX. Then it plays catch up.

Halebop
23-05-2006, 04:24 PM
In a very strangely worded announcement, Australian listed Jeweller Angus & Cootes (Holdings) Ltd announced they wouldn't be making any money for the year. (Actually they said the profit would be "below breakeven").

First half profits were soft, down 37% to $6.1m. This implies a horrific 2nd half result.

Awaiting the next MHI trading update with interest.

rmbbrave
15-08-2006, 10:13 AM
MHI has dropped down to 7.15.

Has a half year result been released.

I have had good result trading MHI every 6 months or so.

Is it time for another trade?

winner69
24-08-2006, 10:21 AM
quote:Originally posted by stephen

Yes, I'm regretting not buying around $7 but I hadn't the spare cash, and couldn't decide what I would rather sell to fund it.


Spose no regrets now Steph

What do you think of the result Belg ... bit disapoointing ... even though expected

Great company and all that and knows about what it is on about


But not a good investment over the last two years .... share price gone nowhere .... as the highly inflated pe ratio back late 2004 gats unwound to more respectable levels

On this earnings still a pe of 17 so shareprice unlikely to go anywhere for a while yet ... in this cycle anyway

Looks like MHI stays on the watchlist ... and review in a years time.

Pennywise
24-08-2006, 11:47 AM
quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Those who didn't pick up below $7 - Why not?
Those who still didn't pick up between $7 and $7.50 - Why not?
Those still not looking for a few more - Why not?
Those who haven't got a clue what Im talking about should whack current fx-rates into their spreadsheets.

discl: laughing ;)


Can't you see W69...Belgs Laughing...all the way to the funny farm.

BTW...love the line on the "spreadsheet" Belg.

Halebop
24-08-2006, 02:45 PM
Looking forwards to seeing the full results in detail. It was reasonably apparant results would be flat'ish. Secretly I thought they might sqeak an increase but hadn't factored a "same sized" loss from the Canadian operation. Despite the flat numbers the qualitative differences between MHI and ANC are highly apparent. Wonder how the privately owned Prouds are doing?

Last time MHI delivered a flat result a few years back the market got morose about them and the share price suffered for a year or so. I'd expect the same this time round and like W69 will keep them on the medium term radar. Canada still seems on track and I'm reminded how long it took Australia to really start firing. Quite a few store openings in OZ this soft trading year, probably didn't help the short term bottom line.

Phaedrus
30-08-2006, 09:49 AM
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/MHIL830001.gif

rmbbrave
30-08-2006, 09:55 AM
On a logarithmic scale it does!

What does a 15 year graph with an ordinary scale look like?

clearasmud
30-08-2006, 10:19 AM
Pheadrus,
good work and $6 here we come !?

Phaedrus
30-08-2006, 10:21 AM
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-2/1151662/MHILin830001.gif

rmbbrave
30-08-2006, 10:49 AM
So an optimist could say that ...

MHI is a long way from breaking the long term uptrend that started way back in 1998.

Halebop
30-08-2006, 11:09 AM
Yeah I think 1998 is the better reference, there weren't any "higher highs" from the brief 1991-92 NZ market boom all the way to the end of 1998 ('Course the mid 90s were characterized by a tough price war in Australia and the receivership of Prouds).

Phaedrus
30-08-2006, 11:27 AM
Yes, an optimist might say that, and continue holding. But a realist would observe the 2 year sequence of lower highs and say "MHI has been a wonderful growth stock in the past, but it has gone nowhere for over 2 years now. I am so glad that I acted on the SELL signal that was posted back in 2004 on page 3 of this thread".

This break of the long-term trendline is no more and no less than the confirmation of other, shorter term trendline breaks. There is now only one warning left should MHI continue to show technical weakness - a break below the previous support at $6.60. What would an optimist say then?

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/MHIS830001.gif

Halebop
30-08-2006, 11:41 AM
Personally I felt the first break was enough to stay out of the share. While I have a lot of respect for MHIs performance, particularly when benchmarked against competitors like ANC, I prefer to love the company rather than love the share. If anyone wants to own MHI, there will be plenty of upside left after they have bottomed out. My pick would be somewhere in the 6's but with uncertain interest rate and inflation considerations, who knows?

Pennywise
30-08-2006, 06:11 PM
quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Those who didn't pick up below $7 - Why not?
Those who still didn't pick up between $7 and $7.50 - Why not?
Those still not looking for a few more - Why not?
Those who haven't got a clue what Im talking about should whack current fx-rates into their spreadsheets.

discl: laughing ;)



:D:D:D

as soon as it goes down...
voila!!!

Belg has been a net seller for 18 months

that spreadsheet is about to blow

ROTFLMAO:D:D:D:D:D

Lizard
30-08-2006, 06:37 PM
quote:Originally posted by belgarion
Over the last 18 months I've been an 'unenthusiastic' net seller. (And I've taken advantage of the MHI 'reputation' and indulged in some bounce-back trading. And ramped it here too.)



Whoa! Did I read that correctly? If you're admitting to selling while ramping then I think that is incredibly unethical...!!!

Pennywise
30-08-2006, 07:05 PM
quote:Originally posted by belgarion
Over the last 18 months I've been an 'unenthusiastic' net seller.


Posted - 06/02/2005 - At the time when he bought, I think I said ... "buy when management buy?" ... there was little response

Posted - 05/10/2005 - Hope y'all been soaking up the sellers ... I have ... One notes that L.W.P. is stilling buying and the Super has increased their (our?) stake.

Posted - 07/10/2005 - More insiders buying ...

Posted - 15/11/2005 - Almost zero trade for ages.Depth shows buyers but no sellers. And has done for weeks.And today L.W.P picks up more on the biggest trades for ages.A good sign? I hope so.
discl: one of my bigger holdings.

Originally posted by Phaedrus "Look how the OBV continues to rise - this stock is being accumulated, not distributed."
Posted - 21/12/2005 - Very true ...;)

Posted - 10/01/2006 - Under $7.00 works very well for me but I'll take any short-term bottom that presents itself to top up. As you both point out; MHI delivers!
Still, I feel tomorrow could well be unpleasant given that this announce came late in the day and caught many, including me, by supprize. This investor will be looking to buy more though

Posted - 11/01/2006 - Pathetic volume ... just two bids @ 680 and 660 ... Hm ... Time for a cheaky bid ... Ah but how cheaky?:D

Posted - 11/01/2006 - The FA's would now be looking to re-build. Bigger sellers, (with weaker stomachs or foriegn investors looking to get out while the NZD is high), will appear. (At least I hope so )
It ain't all over folks;)

Posted - 13/01/2006 - rmb ... I think you may be moving a bit to early if you just want 2000 shares. That said, if the objective, like mine is 're-stocking', then, IMHO, its a good start;)

Posted - 18/02/2006 - My buying policy given the thin trade is just to pick a point in the downtrend, buy all the time and stop when my original entry point is reached.

Posted - 13/03/2006 - Sooner or later the NZ market is going to cotton onto MHI's value in the event of the NZD going from 70c to 64 against the USD and 93c to 87c against the AUD ... But then, what do I know.

Posted - 23/03/2006 - Those who didn't pick up below $7 - Why not?
Those who still didn't pick up between $7 and $7.50 - Why not?
Those still not looking for a few more - Why not?
Those who haven't got a clue what Im talking about should whack current fx-rates into their spreadsheets.
discl: laughing

Posted - 05/04/2006 - Officers all topping up.;)





Above is Belgarions string of posts over the last 18 months in MHI...wow what a bull, buy buy buy, wink wink wink

Now, yes now;) he comes out with hey look! I've been an UNENTHUSIASTIC net seller over the last 18 months[:o)] Yes unenthusiastic...I would hate to be in a small room with this maniac when he gets enthusiastic, maybe that eye tick gets worse;););)

I think you have forgotten to cover your tracks Belg...
Do you lie to your friends and family as well?...silly Q don't answer

winner69
30-08-2006, 07:18 PM
.... which means he has prob been a net seller of feltex as well .... but still has heaps

We have been sucked in pennywise.... i really feel so foolish now

Pennywise
30-08-2006, 07:32 PM
yeah me too:(, I had so much trust in this guy, followed him down the garden path for 18 months

he's fleeced me

I want a govt. enquiry:D

rmbbrave
30-08-2006, 09:13 PM
I have had a pretty good run buying MHI on dips and selling for a profit but I am just a leettle bit worried this time around.

Disc: Bought last week at 7.17

rmbbrave
30-08-2006, 09:14 PM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

Yes, an optimist might say that, and continue holding. But a realist would observe the 2 year sequence of lower highs and say "MHI has been a wonderful growth stock in the past, but it has gone nowhere for over 2 years now. I am so glad that I acted on the SELL signal that was posted back in 2004 on page 3 of this thread".

This break of the long-term trendline is no more and no less than the confirmation of other, shorter term trendline breaks. There is now only one warning left should MHI continue to show technical weakness - a break below the previous support at $6.60. What would an optimist say then?



Ouch?!

Phaedrus
30-08-2006, 09:20 PM
rmbbrave, I'm curious - why, specifically, did you buy MHI, when it has been in a short-term downtrend for a month and a medium-term downtrend for 2 years?

rmbbrave
30-08-2006, 09:38 PM
For fun Phaedrus!

For any other poster I wouldn't bother but here is my trading history of MHI.

Bought 7.30 Feb 2005
Sold 7.99 - 8.02 March 2005

Bought 7.61 June 2005
Bought 7.12 Aug 2005
Sold 7.50 Sept 2005

Bought 7.30 Sept 2005
Sold 7.50 Sept 2005

Bought Jan 2006 6.95
Dividend 9cps
Sold Apr 2006 7.39

Bought Aug 2006 7.17
Currently an owner of MHI.

MHI seems to have very short term dips of the SP which then shoots back up to 7.50.

Who knows how long this pattern will last but we'll find out soon enough, I s'pose.

Pennywise
31-08-2006, 11:57 AM
quote:Originally posted by belgarion


quote:Originally posted by winner69
[brWe have been sucked in pennywise.... i really feel so foolish now


Very droll.


droll...'amusing in an odd way; whimsically humorous; waggish'

yes very amusing...thought the very same thing of your MHI net selling claim...that mirror is looking well polished Belgor...good boy


PS LOVE IT!!! ..absolutely love the non response to your string of rampant BUY calls on MHI...very very satisfying[^]

k1w1
09-09-2006, 04:56 PM
Belg,

I would say that, based on Pennywises research,you will need to explain your "ramping" posts whilst apparently being a net seller or suffer damage to your reputation as an ethical poster on this site.

Please explain.

Pennywise
09-09-2006, 05:43 PM
"reputation as an ethical poster"

Kiwi, pllleeaseeeeee

this guy 'preaches' ethical only...reputation...bafaarharaarahafaa, too funny. have you read his drunk ravings last night in off topic...oh yeah, he's got a reputation...everyone is calling him a drunk.

we have been outing him for years for the hell of it

:D

rmbbrave
04-10-2006, 11:20 PM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

rmbbrave, I'm curious - why, specifically, did you buy MHI, when it has been in a short-term downtrend for a month and a medium-term downtrend for 2 years?


See Phaedrus,

Nothing to worry about - closed today at 7.20.

I bought at 7.17, perhaps a little early but it's okay.

Nevl
15-10-2006, 12:46 AM
Anyone else like the annoucement. I thought it was positive. Big jump in sales in Canada, Good jump in OZ and an ok rise in NZ. The pressure on margins from higher gold prices will be easing with the drop in the spot gold price and I think it looks good going ahead. The Canada operation must be profitable by now and the rollout there can probally take care of its self. Looks as though Canada will have a similar number of stores to NZ in just a few more years. The best news was the Jump in same store sales in both OZ and Canada meaning they are getting the format right. How about an expension into the UK next.

George
15-10-2006, 06:44 AM
Possible triple bottom at 680 with spikes to 660, RSI divergence, top of range 720 or resistance at 780. May be worth a look.
See also comments on PGC and RBD threads.
George

KJ
15-10-2006, 11:31 AM
George-may be better to wait for a clear reversal and buy into an uptrend.Sentiment not good for this stock-3 mths comments points to NPAT being lower than last yr-could go lower.

Phaedrus
15-10-2006, 08:25 PM
George, MHI has been in a shallow downtrend since 2004. Why buy? The trend channel is wide enough to trade, should you be interested in that sort of thing. An oscillator such as a long period Williams'%R gives quite good entry and exit signals. But... why would you be interested? It is much easier, much safer and much more profitable to trade stocks that are in uptrends. Why fight the trend?

Footsie
16-10-2006, 06:39 PM
the trend is your friend

rmbbrave
03-11-2006, 08:48 PM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3848569a13,00.html

Jewellery chain targets Britain
03 November 2006
By DAVID HARGREAVES

Jewellery chain Michael Hill International is set to launch an assault on another country - probably Britain - within two years, chairman Michael Hill says.


Mr Hill said after yesterday's annual meeting in Auckland that the company was tossing up between opening stores in the United States or Britain.

But he thought it more probable it would be Britain, where he believed the existing jewellery competition was fragmented and could be taken on.

"I think we would have a field day."

Work was already being done on a potential launch, which would be done with about three trial shops - much as the company earlier did in Canada.

The company has 12 stores in Canada and a further six are planned for opening this year. Mr Hill said it was hoped the company could get into profit in Canada this year.

He believed the potential in Canada was enormous and the company could ultimately end up with as many as 150 stores there.

"It all takes time but it is worth it. People said we would not crack Canada - but we are doing it."

At the moment Michael Hill international has a total of 177 stores.

The majority - 116 of them are in Australia, with 49 in New Zealand.

In the year to June the company reported a 4 per cent drop in after tax profits to $15.8 million as tough trading conditions in Australia and high gold prices had an impact.

But in giving about 200 shareholders at yesterday's meeting a "sneak preview" of where the company planned to go, Mr Hill said the company was not clouded by short term objectives. It had a 20 year goal of 1000 shops.

"We have a very long term objective. We are looking well ahead. We are not too interested in what the market thinks about us in the short term. We are focused on our vision and where we want to be.

"There is not a global chain of middle class jewellery shops. We want to be the first one. It might take time but we are committed to it." The company is changing emphasis on its products. It is now stocking a lot more diamonds and is soon to launch new Michael Hill brand watches.

"Once you have your own brand you no longer need to discount," Mr Hill said.

Some of the new watches would be in stores before Christmas, but most would be released next year.

The company is doubling the size of its head office in Brisbane as it gears up for growth and moves to centralised supply.

"There is no short term quick fix. That is not the way we work," Mr Hill said.

"You will be looking at a multi-billion dollar company within 20 years. Stick with us for the ride it is going to be one hell of a trip."

Is Mike getting carried away?

COLIN
27-01-2007, 10:16 AM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

George, MHI has been in a shallow downtrend since 2004. Why buy? The trend channel is wide enough to trade, should you be interested in that sort of thing. An oscillator such as a long period Williams'%R gives quite good entry and exit signals. But... why would you be interested? It is much easier, much safer and much more profitable to trade stocks that are in uptrends. Why fight the trend?


Looks like the uptrend is here!
I was taken by surprise by yesterday's announcement, particularly the 11.1% increase in same-store sales. This seems a remarkable achievement in what we are told by other major retailers has been a difficult market lately, particularly as compared with the likes of HLG. Why have people been spending heaps more money on useless bling rather than useful clothing? Has anyone got a rational explanation? Can't think of one myself.

Nevl
29-01-2007, 06:57 PM
I think MHI will do pretty well over the next 6 months. Have being stocking up at 6.70 since November and am happy with how it is going. 15 mill half year add another 10 for the second half and it is all looking good. Should get its growth premium back too. I think it could hit 8.50 again in about 6 months. Am very interested to see how Canada is doing also. This announcement was actually foreshadowed with the Quarterly announcement in October. They announced excellent figures then. So good to see that they continued.

rmbbrave
29-01-2007, 07:12 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

I have had a pretty good run buying MHI on dips and selling for a profit but I am just a leettle bit worried this time around.

Disc: Bought last week at 7.17




And I didn't sell these either!

I'm in the money now.

Halebop
29-01-2007, 10:59 PM
I think they've done well but a good chunk of it will prove to be currency translations. Might be a false start if Bollard raises interest rates and the $NZ rises further. Still, compare that result with ANC's last one and the qualitative differences become apparent.

Nevl
30-01-2007, 08:40 AM
Nope on the currency. This is the second half when the Kiwi was strengthening. It should have made the result worse. Also despite tighter margins in the gold prices. SO a currency getting worse and higher raw materials they still pull out a good one.

Halebop
30-01-2007, 03:24 PM
quote:Originally posted by Nevl

Nope on the currency. This is the second half when the Kiwi was strengthening. It should have made the result worse. Also despite tighter margins in the gold prices. SO a currency getting worse and higher raw materials they still pull out a good one.


Not entirely. Gold is traded in $US. The $NZ has strengthened against the $US, reducing inputs. Although the gold price has risen in the last few months, for the six month period it has been pretty neutral thanks to the August to October dips. It's a fairly similar story between the $A / $USA and Australia is where much of the manufacturing is done. This may have had an exaggerated impact in Canada where I suspect (albeit without knowing Canada specific numbers) the business should have moved from loss to breakeven or profit on those sorts of numbers.

This is not to downplay the sales improvement - particularly if they acheived those sorts of results in the cash flow rich New Zealand business.

rmbbrave
08-02-2007, 01:21 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave


quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

I have had a pretty good run buying MHI on dips and selling for a profit but I am just a leettle bit worried this time around.

Disc: Bought last week at 7.17




And I didn't sell these either!

I'm in the money now.


$8.00

Really in the money

Nevl
23-02-2007, 02:36 PM
well $8.50 about 5 months early. Never mind. I think that was a bit conservative now that Canada is truely up and running. $0.5 mill for 6 months. Canada will probally give a full year profit of close to 2 mill. Am sitting at the beach a very happy man. Another year like this and I can relax.

Nevl
13-04-2007, 07:40 PM
Ok at $9.50. with good prospects and another encouraging sales figure. To sell or hold that is the question. With another 5% of shares being cancelled. I think the price will be well supported for the next 12 months. A good full year result will maybe push it over $10. I think I am going to hold. What about you rmbbrave?

blackcap
13-04-2007, 09:09 PM
quote:Originally posted by Nevl

Ok at $9.50. with good prospects and another encouraging sales figure. To sell or hold that is the question. With another 5% of shares being cancelled. I think the price will be well supported for the next 12 months. A good full year result will maybe push it over $10. I think I am going to hold. What about you rmbbrave?


and then the inevitable share split on supposes :)

craic
14-04-2007, 10:59 AM
Ten dollars may seem a good figure but a rise to $10 is only a 5.25% increase. Good if it happens in a month or so but mediocre if it takes longer. Disc. holder

rmbbrave
14-04-2007, 11:15 AM
Nevl,

It seems to be a good time to hold retail stocks.

Spending binge unrelenting

April 14, 2007 By Brian Fallow

Strong retail sales data for February caused the dollar to jump yesterday and has money markets now viewing another interest rate rise as a question of when, not if.

When seasonally adjusted, sales were 1.9 per cent higher than in January and 6.3 per cent ahead of February last year, Statistics New Zealand said.

If the volatile automotive sector is excluded, the results were even stronger, up 2.3 per cent for the month and 8.2 per cent for the year.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10434167

Unemployment is at a 30 year low or something, surely some people will sqaunder their wages on baubles. I'd never buy anything MHI sells but I'll hold on to MHI for a bit more, I think.

cjh
15-04-2007, 03:33 PM
Sure the MHI sp has done well but i think the management still get fat heads with marketing at times, eg-
Own brand 'M/Hill watches', how many women will be proud to show their new purchase off to mates "oh, its a M/H brand" -instead of known long standing brand names, even Lorus etc.
They have been watching too many supermarket or clothing own brands go well but forget their basic best sellers are low cost items and this latest move is giving more watch sales to the pascoes/prouds/angus + coot group.

cjh

baxter
15-04-2007, 04:20 PM
I 've followed the progress of this share since it was floated.I almost bought in at 73 cents but decided it was too dear and put most of my money into property, Robert Jones Investments. MHI held its value in the face of all logic during the crash and the RJI shares I held at a top value of 350K will be forcibly repaid in a month or so for less than 2K. I held on to them as a permanent reminder of my own stupidity.

Halebop
15-04-2007, 06:19 PM
quote:Originally posted by cjh

Sure the MHI sp has done well but i think the management still get fat heads with marketing at times, eg-
Own brand 'M/Hill watches', how many women will be proud to show their new purchase off to mates "oh, its a M/H brand" -instead of known long standing brand names, even Lorus etc.
They have been watching too many supermarket or clothing own brands go well but forget their basic best sellers are low cost items and this latest move is giving more watch sales to the pascoes/prouds/angus + coot group.

Probably worth waiting and seeing what happens. I personally think it's a smart choice.

MHI understands margin management better than the former ANC did. House brand product typically delivers a higher margin than name brand because you aren't paying for the "name's" marketing & margin. If it works it will be much more successful than just being "another" distributor of someone else's product. If it doesn't work they can switch product or dump the line altogether. MHI are number centric and have shown themselves to be "not too proud" to cut losses when a mistake is made.

Halebop
15-04-2007, 06:25 PM
quote:Originally posted by baxter

I 've followed the progress of this share since it was floated.I almost bought in at 73 cents but decided it was too dear and put most of my money into property, Robert Jones Investments. MHI held its value in the face of all logic during the crash and the RJI shares I held at a top value of 350K will be forcibly repaid in a month or so for less than 2K. I held on to them as a permanent reminder of my own stupidity.


Ouch! ...Bob Jones is still doing OK though [xx(]

Nevl
15-04-2007, 08:47 PM
up to $10 is a small return but the divi yeild is also 5% and there is ample room for further growth give retail figures and further expansion in Canada. MHI seems to have a staircase like chart where it runs up quickly then levels off then as the market catchs up again it takes off again. Still the steady amount of Divis and price appreciation is enough for me to keep this as a cornerstone of my long term portfolio. Also ASB like to lend 60% on this one. Allows me to play with other shares on the profits from this one.

winner69
03-07-2007, 08:28 PM
Made that $10 mark nevi .... well done

No reason why it shouldn't keep going up eh

So you can make money in retail afterall ..... especially if do the simple things well and consistently

Michael is hosting the NZ Golf Open on his private course this year .... what a way to promote the course to potential foreign buyers .... better than the front page of the harcourts book

Asking price $150M ... not too bad for a bit of gardening

Nevl
05-07-2007, 08:10 AM
yeah finally and just on target. Still looking good for this year. Glad I topped up at 6.70. Am waiting for the next mark but am not sure from here. Will wait for the next report.

Halebop
19-08-2007, 09:27 AM
It was another good result from MHI, albeit Tom the $1.00 rise was just recouping the drop of the week before.

I wouldn't worry about another country just yet. Canada definitely has some way to go on the S curve. There is only going to be so much management capacity to handle expansion so they will be better off developing some "MHI Cultured" local management in Canada before trying to stretch things further. In any case if economies hold up I think you'll only have to wait 1 to 2 years. The balance sheet has been coping fine with Canadian start up losses and investments so future earnings from North America will be put to good use I'm sure. (Canada $25m sales already... how long did it take NZ to get there?)

The worst part of the report was that they obviously had a weak patch in the final quarter. What was the cause? Saturation potentially but seems unlikely as Australia still appears to have some way to go on the infill front. Competition? Economy?

Assuming they succeed in Canada (and potentially USA?), imputation credits will begin to be a problem. Will they pay partially un-franked dividends? Perhaps they will change the long term formula of a highish proportion of earnings being distributed and reinvest a larger share for growth?

winner69
15-09-2007, 06:54 PM
ANother all time high again the other day

And good press from gaynor won't do any harm
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10463672

Intereresting what the 10 for 1 split will do ..... at about a $1 shares will be cheap again

k1w1
17-09-2007, 01:09 PM
Well as an act of penance for trashing this share some years ago (in favour of Angus & Coote now no longer with us ) I have purchased some MHI prior to the split and hereby publicly acknowledge that I was wrong about MHI and that nearly everyone on ST knows more about jewelry retailing than I do.

Nevl
17-09-2007, 06:16 PM
I actually sold some 3 months ago. Should have got more in August. Still am a happy holder for now

Jay
18-09-2007, 08:23 PM
Seems they have changed the split date:
-------------------------------------------------------
MHI
24/08/2007
GENERAL

REL: 1433 HRS Michael Hill International Limited

GENERAL: MHI: Share Split - Change of Date

Michael Hill International Limited

In our full year profit announcement to NZX on the 17th August 2007, the
Company announced a 10 for 1 share split to take place on Monday 29th October
2007.
For administrative reasons, the date for the split has been changed to Monday
19th November, 2007.

W.K.Butler
Company Secretary 24 August 2007
--------------------------------------------------------------
Not may sellers now
Long time holder

Nevl
03-10-2007, 10:15 PM
Ok now MHI is getting to some pretty heady heights even with the Divi this week and the bonus issue next month. Still with Aussie booming and Canada as well i will be awaiting the quarterly update with interest. Will MHI make 13.

trackers
05-02-2008, 10:09 AM
MHI is smoking today, bloody hell at this rate it'll be the top riser on the NZX in 2008 too! (25&#37; incr NP for HY)

Lizard
15-08-2008, 11:58 AM
Nice find, Annanz!

winner69
13-02-2009, 08:12 PM
Jeez Belg ... you must have heaps and heaps of these now .... $1,000 buys 2,500 of the little beauties eh

Think 40 cents would be a 5 year low

Is it just conincidence or something else that the 10:1 split happened near the price peak ..... didn't they say they did it to increase liquidity .... if it goes any lower might need to to do a consolidation to get it out of the penny stock category ... couldn't have a global jeweller seen as that cheap

Just shows how strange these times are .... anything is possible

winner69
14-02-2009, 09:56 AM
Yeah you are right ... 50 cents it is .... must have been thinking opportunity with 40 cents on my mind

Michael Hill is a great success company which all retailers should learn from

Nice story the other day in the paper abut the sales assistant getting the BMW for topping the sales ladder for the year ..... incentives are an integral part of their business model ..... but they make sure they know how to sell the Michael Hill way as well.

Its people on the floor that make or break some retailers and some forget that

shasta
14-02-2009, 10:44 AM
Yeah you are right ... 50 cents it is .... must have been thinking opportunity with 40 cents on my mind

Michael Hill is a great success company which all retailers should learn from

Nice story the other day in the paper abut the sales assistant getting the BMW for topping the sales ladder for the year ..... incentives are an integral part of their business model ..... but they make sure they know how to sell the Michael Hill way as well.

Its people on the floor that make or break some retailers and some forget that

Michael Hill started off with just 1 store in Whangarei, a definite "kiwi" success story, in fact it used to come up alot when i was at Coopers & Lybrand (Many moons ago!), even though it wasn't a client of our office.

Perhaps a few more businesses could try & replicate the overseas model employed by Michael "The Golfer" Hill, ie slow & steady!

Phaedrus
14-02-2009, 01:46 PM
Well Belge, from where I sit this looks like just another example of you demonstrating the folly of averaging down.

The blue exclamation mark is where (with a sly wink) you posted the comment "Those who have been topping up over the recent down period must be loving this!" I guess from the emoticon that you, too, were adding to your holdings at around that time. This was just after MHI had fired off a series of technical SELL signals. The uptrend had run out of steam. MHI has been falling for over a year now with you and others buying into the ongoing downtrend. You call it "accumulating", "topping up" or "net accumulation" but these euphemisms do not mask the fact that you are breaking a lot of commonly accepted rules - and paying the price for that. Click here (http://spahiu.wordpress.com/2006/05/27/the-not-so-simple/) and count them!

You make the comment that "this hasn't been a bad strategy - but still a losing one I'm afraid". Belg, a losing strategy IS a bad strategy!

Don't add to losing trades.
Don't buy stocks that are in a downtrend.
Don't average down.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/MHI214.gif

winner69
14-02-2009, 04:25 PM
stll think it ironic that when MHI did a 10:1 split to make their shares more readily available (at least that is how a lot see it) it's all been downhill .... almost making it really cheap average down

winner69
14-02-2009, 04:31 PM
Looking back at the announcements it wasn't that long ago MHI was buying their shares back (over a $1) .... like many didn't really forsee the global turmoil on the horizon ... and now prob say to themselves we chouldn't have done it

peat
14-02-2009, 05:01 PM
although there is no confirmation at all... there are a couple of things interesting happening that might mean it has bottomed. there is divergence on the rsi and there's a five wave, wave 5 type diagonal triangle going on - i think its pretty clear here.

i'm not able to lay out the elliot wave count precisely enough myself to determine whether this is truly a wave 5 (maybe its still in one of the divisions of the wave 3 down) but it could be and....one of my charting books says "when you see a diagonal triangle as the last wave of a save 5 , expect a major move to follow."
i repeat - there is no confirmation.

winner69
14-02-2009, 06:25 PM
One other thing - 50 is a nice round number (get below 100 and something has to be 'round' and half of a 100 seems pretty round) ...... and it is amazing how many times things happen around round numbers ..... even with MHI the share price hung around 100 +/- a bit for quite a while

Doesn't apply yo their pricing though ..... black board special yesterday in Cuba St was a diamond for Valentines day at $5,995

Billy Boy
16-02-2009, 01:53 PM
Doesn't apply yo their pricing though ..... black board special yesterday in Cuba St was a diamond for Valentines day at $5,995

Would have to be "diamond studded" at that price !!!:D:D
BB :D

Nevl
19-02-2009, 10:22 AM
Not a bad result. Benefited from the Aussie money giveaway which is great. Thanks Ruddy. May the Aussie govt keep borrowing money so people can buy stuff in shops!! Canada is not looking good at the moment but was happy with the prce they got the US stores for even with the minor loss. The improvement in cashflow was very good and the debt reduction was welcome.

All up I say mildly positive but not a reason to expect a major jump in the share price. Can't see it falling either based on this.

Phaedrus
12-08-2009, 10:34 AM
From its lows, MHI took off in an uptrend that was too steep to be sustainable. This was evidenced by the lack of attendant volume and a Bearish Divergence that identified underlying weakness. Shortly after this, price action broke below the confirmed trendline, giving a "Sell" signal (marked by small red arrow). Note that MHI was still in an uptrend and that the RVI(100) (a conservative indicator) had not triggered any sell signal.

Note, too, that the OBV is now rising, albeit at a fairly modest rate. MHI is now in a less steep, much more sustainable uptrend, with a new confirmed trendline in place (light green).

More active traders that exited MHI when the old (dark green) trendline was broken would most likely have re-entered on a short-term oscillator Buy signal such as the one shown in the RSI plot craftily inserted in the lower right hand corner of the chart.

You can clearly see the Resistance at 70 cents as mentioned by W69.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/MHI812.gif

winner69
16-08-2009, 06:56 PM
Closed above 70 for a few days now and looked reasonably solid but a late sell off on Friday afternoon pushed it back to 71

The next few days will be interesting ... was last week a false breakout and the shareprice fall below the 70 mark again .... or will the 70 now hold as a strong support level

Action leading up to last week suggests y=the up trend will stay in place .... hence we should expect to see some good gains from here .... with a ready made support at 70 cents

Zito
16-08-2009, 10:17 PM
I agree Winner. The uptrend has gained momentum as it has continued. The initial price movement off its lows was not supported by any significant volume. But the OBV is now also trending upwards indicating good buying support.

I would expect some consolidation at around current prices with 70c offering support as you suggest. I have bought on the basis of the 70c resistance being broken, with a reasonably tight stop set at 69c - lest it is a false break.

Any close below 70c now may indicate a weakening of the uptrend.

winner69
17-08-2009, 07:54 PM
Todays drop stuffed the chart up a bit eh

Maybe a consolidation period around the 70 mark is what is going to happen for a while

bull....
18-08-2009, 07:28 AM
tried to bust thru long term down trend line but was crushed

Zito
18-08-2009, 08:14 AM
Yes, that drop flicked me out. Shortest trade for quite some time. Grrr. It will be interesting to see where it goes from here. Technically the uptrend still exists but now it has gone below 70 again I have less confidence as to the immediate direction of price action.

scamper
23-10-2009, 04:34 PM
dunno, but the chart is looking most unwell...

winner69
30-12-2009, 07:31 AM
Todays drop stuffed the chart up a bit eh

Maybe a consolidation period around the 70 mark is what is going to happen for a while

That was last August so with the price still below 70 the 'for a while' sure has been

Other retail stocks have kicked on after the initial recovery after the march collapse ........ so MHI dragging the chain a bit .... maybe the decrent recovery to come in 2010

blackcap
07-01-2010, 08:26 AM
11.7 million shares just went at 63.5 cents. Wonder who that is selling. Any ideas?

Zito
07-01-2010, 10:00 AM
I don't, but I guess it will be revealed over the next day or two. At 63.5cps the sale is a 5% discount to the market close last night, which in my opinion is significant enough to foreshadow some price weakness as the market digests the information.