TWR - Tower Insurance.

[Rawz]

I doubled down (up) at 70cents. From initial buy at 59 cents.

Todays update gave me great confidence in a 24 month hold. Should be excellent dividends and capital appreciation.

I had a mate that worked in upper management at TWR and i used to give him sh!t about the TWR results each time we caught up for a beer over the last few years.
He always laughed and then proceeded to tell me that internally the business had never been run better with better and better systems/operations and culture.

I think the fruits of those labours are starting to be seen with the expense ratio trending down and automation trending up. As highlighted in todays update.

TWR is in a 'good news up cycle'. My theory is that it is better to double up than say double down on something in a 'bad news down cycle'. Like dont buy cheap FBU, RYM, SLM etc Buy TWR.

Just my opinion. DYOR and stuff.

[percy]

I doubled down (up) at 70cents. From initial buy at 59 cents.

Todays update gave me great confidence in a 24 month hold. Should be excellent dividends and capital appreciation.

I had a mate that worked in upper management at TWR and i used to give him sh!t about the TWR results each time we caught up for a beer over the last few years.
He always laughed and then proceeded to tell me that internally the business had never been run better with better and better systems/operations and culture.

I think the fruits of those labours are starting to be seen with the expense ratio trending down and automation trending up. As highlighted in todays update.

TWR is in a 'good news up cycle'. My theory is that it is better to double up than say double down on something in a 'bad news down cycle'. Like dont buy cheap FBU, RYM, SLM etc Buy TWR.

Just my opinion. DYOR and stuff.

Yes well.?
Having made a huge error with HCL in Aussie and losing a bit of faith in AFT [nz] and JYC [asx],I have decided to follow the old sage advice.
"Sell your losers,and add to your winners."
Wife and I have both added to our 2CC holdings..

[Rawz]

"Don't pick your flowers and water your weeds"- some guru

[winner69]

Staissny also told the annual meeting in Auckland that buyers were not circling, “categorically” saying that Tower had not been approached about a possible sale…..NBR

[Gerald]

Staissny also told the annual meeting in Auckland that buyers were not circling, “categorically” saying that Tower had not been approached about a possible sale…..NBR

Bit of a technicality but if you watched it the question was "have you been approached with an offer" and the answer was no. So he wasn't saying that buyers were not circling.

His comment around the review being board led, not shareholder led was also interesting. Probably more the case of a Bain nudge nudge then a push push then? The targets, though acheivable also look quite aggressive which is out of character for TWR so maybe they realise this is the end of the line and are simply pouring blood in the water to get those sharks circling.

[Rawz]

…The targets, though acheivable also look quite aggressive which is out of character for TWR so maybe they realise this is the end of the line and are simply pouring blood in the water to get those sharks circling.

It certainly has got this goldfish circling

[Rawz]

SP previously hugged the 60cent mark before recent updates.
Now seems to be hugging 70cent mark.

Ive checked the long range weather forecast for heavy rains/winds etc. Looks all good lol :cool:
That big unused $45m provision looks delicious. $12m of it was used by this time last year. By rights we can add $12m to guidance of $27m????

NPAT tracking to be $39m??? Market cap is $267m. i.e. trading on a forward P/E of 6.8?
Even on the underlying NPAT of $27m its a 9.8 P/E.

TWR looking cheap
TWR have goldman sachs looking for a buyer to unlock shareholder value
TWR have provided midpoint targets for underlying NPAT of FY25 $50M and FY26 $70M

TWR has to be the most undervalued NZX stock?

Disc. Holder

[Leemsip]

Agree RAWZ.
This is a serial disappointer tho, so can TWR still pull defeat from the jaws of victory.

Anyway I am adding to holdings over the the next couple of months when I get a bit of cash. I mainly need this to be a winnner so as to advance my standings in the stock picker comp...

[Antipodean]

Been calling this a turnaround story for a few years now.
Took a bit longer than I originally planned, given the terrible year just past.

Insurers are going to have lumpy income with large events, and yes those events are going to trend upwards.
All you need to do is have a good actuary and plan ahead.

Either the turnaround is just beginning, or my broken clock is finally chiming right.

[ronaldson]

Been calling this a turnaround story for a few years now.
Took a bit longer than I originally planned, given the terrible year just past.

Insurers are going to have lumpy income with large events, and yes those events are going to trend upwards.
All you need to do is have a good actuary and plan ahead.

Either the turnaround is just beginning, or my broken clock is finally chiming right.

Both the Chair and CEO struck me as very upbeat when I spoke with them after the meeting.

And at the AGM it was explicitly stated TWR had acted to reduce it's risk appetite in the Pacific. Did you notice the riots in Port Moresby just 3 months after TWR sold out? And Vanuatu (conditionally onsold presently ) was a big contributor to "large event" losses last year. And the Solomon Is, also divested, is a highly unreliable legal jurisdiction, fraught politically, and exposed to cyclone/hurricane risk.

And the Suva hub has really just opened. 250 staff employed there is huge for Fiji and very economical for TWR. So the MER ( Management Expense Ratio ) which has fallen significantly may indeed reduce further going forward.

And there have been many steps taken incrementally in the last few years to simplify the business and move to an increased digital interface, with major reduction in the number and variation in products/policies offered, and better clarity of wordings, along with reduction of commissions paid after the purchase of legacy portfolios from third parties.

Plus the interest earned on the "float" has gone from virtually nothing to a much fairer investment return currently. So I think the turnaround is not just beginning but is in full swing!

Unless the so-called strategic review yields something requiring a disclosure announcement in the near term the next update will be the half year (to 31 March) results reporting in May. Absent a severe "large event" in the interim that may tell a real turnaround tale for all to then see. And no income tax liability until 26/27 according to the CFO.

[Rawz]

I would like to see some directors buying at these levels. Especially post update and AGM.

Marcus Nagel holds 62 shares (yes 62 is not a typo)
Geraldine McBride holds 5,477
Michael Cutter (voted onto the board at the AGM) holds 34,726 shares which were purchased in Dec last year.

These three need to show the market how cheap the TWR shares are and take their holding over 100k shares a piece imo.

Other directors Graham Stuart holds 202,500 shares and king Michael Stiassny holds 624,897.

He with Todd turned TRA around and now it is part of the NZ50.
If Stiassny can lead TWR down a similar path of TRA us shareholders are in for some juicy dividends and cap gains.

[ronaldson]

I agree Rawz. And under several hats I hold many indirectly. There is a risk thou with being a large holder in TWR that there is a "super large event" without any warning that effectively may destroy your equity.

Catastrophes are improbable with other listed entities and if they occur the expectaton is that there will be some lead time to act. Covid is a classic example (and remember the pandemic could theoretically have manifested much worse/more deadly ) where there was time for the astute to react in the market before impact. A natural hazard occurence may simply be too swift for that.

[Southern Lad]

And no income tax liability until 26/27 according to the CFO.

Tower has recognised a deferred tax asset of $29.4m for the value of tax losses as at 30 September 2023 (so if were all in NZ, this would be $105m gross tax losses).

While Tower is saying they won't pay tax to IRD in cash until 2026/27, they will still have tax expense in the P&L if they make a profit in the interim period as they whittle down the amount of the already recognised deferred tax asset.

Rather than shareholders looking forward to an improved after tax dividend return once Tower can attach imputation credits (from 2026/27), because they will have to fund the cash cost of the tax, all things being equal the amount Tower can afford as a cash dividend will reduce due to cash tax cost that will also need to be funded.

[Panda-NZ-]

​Relevant:

Incoming government warned about major earthquake/natural disaster risks to NZ.


The briefing noted a 2018 analysis (https://assets.lloyds.com/assets/pdf-lloyds-underinsurance-report-final/1/pdf-lloyds-underinsurance-report-final.pdf)that ranked New Zealand second highest in the world for financial exposure to natural hazards.

Regarding earthquakes, the briefing said there was a 25 per cent change of “a major Hikurangi Subduction Zone earthquake event occurring in the next 50 years.“Indicative national impacts of a major Hikurangi earthquake and tsunami include tens of thousands of people dead, injured or displaced from their homes, and significant damage to the built environment (in excess of $144 billion).”

The Hikurangi zone, located off the east coast of the North Island, is “potentially the largest source of earthquake and tsunami hazard in New Zealand”, according to GNS, which is doing a five-year research project on the zone.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/could-happen-tomorrow-government-warned-of-chances-of-catastrophic-earthquake/YEUALN5BOVGKNH7X7F3QC2D25I/

[nztx]

​Relevant:

Incoming government warned about major earthquake/natural disaster risks to NZ.



https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/could-happen-tomorrow-government-warned-of-chances-of-catastrophic-earthquake/YEUALN5BOVGKNH7X7F3QC2D25I/



the same issues & risks the outgoing clueless lot knew about but did as close as possible to *Nothing* about in 6 years ? ;)

[Antipodean]

​Relevant:

Relevent to Tower, sure. But not to the extent that has been emphasised with the bolding added in your quote.

Firstly, loss of life is tragic but not financially impacting a non life insurer such as Tower.

Second, $144 billion sounds like a lot but for starter that is not restricted to one insurance company who have ~10% market share.
Following that it is good to note:

A) On the East Coast much (perhaps even most?) of that will be public infrastructure damage.
B) Any land damage is soley covered by EQC
C) Any remaining private insured dwellings are initially covered by EQC for the first $345,000 of rebuild cost
D) The difference between C) and the total rebuild cost of the home is limited by the sum insured on the policy, which Tower has on books and in aggregate across regions
E) Tower have catastrophe cover via reinsurance treaties specifically for this type of event

[nztx]

Canterbury getting a few of these lately:


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/magnitude-51-earthquake-strikes-canterbury-region-reported-by-over-4000-people/2VXYOIHMXRDK7OAV5VS4JAZP6Q/



A 5.1 magnitude earthquake has struck Canterbury tonight, with more than 4600 people reporting the sharp jolt.

The 9.21pm quake was centred near the small township of Methven, about 100km west of Christchurch City, at a depth of 5km.


Magnitude 5.1 earthquake strikes Canterbury region near Methven, felt by more than 4600 people including Christchurch residents

[Rawz]

Weather was kind this week :cool:

Guidance is NPAT of $27m.

Big provision of $45m not used.
Last year $12m was used by this time.

Each week that goes by on a pro-rata basis $45m/52weeks= $865k gets added to the guidance? (Yes i know a major event could hit in the last month and eat up the $45m).

Basically depending on how much of the provision is used we are trading on a p/e of 3.80 to 10.
A worst case scenario P/E of 10?? Come on... thats crazy cheap

Its time for TWR to shine;

- Peak interest rates adding to investment income.
- Investment in the back office done and paid for.
- Cost to income ratios forecast to fall
- Goldman sachs set the task to find a potential buyer
- Guru Chairman Michael Stiassny is going to do a TRA on TWR and make himself a load more money (and the rest of us shareholders)

This is TWRs year.

[ronaldson]

According to me a 1c per share dividend requires $3,794,840. Of course currently holders would have 33c in the $ deducted from any payout as RWT.

So it's plausible, based upon the NPAT projection, that the Board in FY24 could authorise, say, 2.5c interim dividend and 2.5c final dividend in due course, returning to a previous payout level. That would be a decent gross yeild at present pricing. That would represent a payout around $19m all up, including the IRD's share.

A higher NPAT, especially if the "large events" allowance is significantly underutilised, could mean a more generous outcome. So Rawz may be on point!

[Sgt Pepper]

I have checked Towers historical share price range going back 10+ years and its current $0.72 is an aberration. It peaked at $6.50 and was for a long time in the range of $2.00 to $2.50. With present forecast what would be a realistic share price??

[ronaldson]

Tower have provided guidance for FY24, FY25 and FY26. They believe that period will deliver an annual increase in Gross Written Premiums of 10 - 15%, which is impressive even if current and ongoing inflation is factored in.

Importantly, they believe the underlying Net Profit After Tax (NPAT), assuming full utilisation of the "large events" allowance in each case, will be in the ranges $22 - 27m in FY24 ( year end 30 September), $40 - 60m in FY25 and $60 - 80m in FY26. I understand that because of past losses no tax will actually need to be paid in cash until FY26, and perhaps only partially in that year. See Southern Lad's post #2013 above for greater clarity.

If achieved ( and the range between the lower and upper figure in each year is necessarily wide, but maybe use the midpoint, so FY24 is $25m, FY25 is $50m and FY26 is $70m ) this is significant change. And the "large events" allowance/provision underpinning this guidance in FY24 is $45m, in FY25 is $50m and in FY26 is $55m. Any unutilised portion of that allowance in any year goes direct to the bottom line. Tower has been obliged to accept larger excesses before catastrophe cover is triggered, to mitigate reinsurance premium costs, but the provisions outlined are generous in relation to historical experience.

Then consider my post #2019 above and the increase in dividend potentially available as a consequence if that NPAT is attained. I think the share price could realistically easily reach $1.50 or even more over that timeframe notwithstanding that some discount needs to be applied for risk inherent in TWR's insurance market-making in an uncertain natural environment as past happenings have demonstrated.

[Rawz]

Why doesn’t TWR invest their float in stocks? Right now would be the best time. Even investing half of it could add another $10m NPAT with ease.

And what happens when rates drop? How do they make up the loss of investment income?

[Lego_Man]

Why doesn’t TWR invest their float in stocks? Right now would be the best time. Even investing half of it could add another $10m NPAT with ease.

And what happens when rates drop? How do they make up the loss of investment income?

Good question. They have a very low risk mandate currently managed by Nikko Funds for them. There is probably scope for them to add a little bit of risk in the fixed income bucket at least?

[Poet]

Their half year ends 31 March. Providing that we don't have any large events before then, the half year result should be NPAT around $36 million (includes half of the annual $45m large events allowance). Pretty impressive given a market cap of $267m and no debt.

[Rawz]

how much will this cost, in terms of the penalty? any insights

MKTUPDTE: TWR: FMA files proceedings on multi-policy discount application

7 March 2024

FMA files proceedings on multi-policy discount application

Tower (NZX/ASX: TWR) advises that the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) today
filed civil proceedings regarding Tower's self-reported failure to correctly
apply multi-policy discounts (MPDs).

As outlined in a market update late last year, Tower anticipated regulatory
enforcement action with regard to its inaccurate application of MPDs and
raised a provision at that time.

Tower has made significant progress towards remediating the around 65,000
customers identified as being owed a refund. Over $9.26 million (including
GST and interest) has already been paid in respect of overcharges of premiums
payable by over 58,900 customers. Remediation payments continue.

The company has also implemented significant checks and balances to determine
and promptly remediate any further incorrectly applied MPDs. These
occurrences are now identified soon after purchase, and in the majority of
cases, without the need for any refund.

Tower Chair, Michael Stiassny noted that while the company is disappointed
that the FMA has filed proceedings, its focus continues to be on identifying
any further actions necessary to prevent overcharging.

"While the Company has acted in good faith, self-reported the issue, and is
undertaking a comprehensive remediation programme, we accept and deeply
regret that customers have been impacted. We apologise unreservedly and will
continue to work in earnest to address outstanding issues," he said.

ENDS

[Poet]

TWR November 2023 update stated likely cost of remediation program 11.2m including an estimated provision for fma enforcement penalty. I think this 11.2 was taken on the chin in last years fy result so shouldn't impact thus year very much If at all

[ronaldson]

Yes. Any shortfall in provisioning assessed on the basis of recent experience will need to be included when the half year results to 31 March 2024 are eventually released in May, but the Financial Statements as at end FY23 had the remaining provisioning both for remediation and for the anticipated FMA enforcement action now commenced as $7.086m. That number is exclusive GST.

What isn't clear from that disclosure was how much of the remediation liability had already been paid at that time (30 Sept) so we can't reconcile that figure to the statement in the announcement that $9.26m ( which confusingly includes GST - and interest although that will have been expected when raising the provision originally) now already paid. But it seems another 6100 customers are yet to be assessed and paid, which is only about 10% of the original 65000. So the latter should definitly be paid out by end FY24 and most by the half year balance date imminent.

My guess would be about $1m of the provision will be required to see off the consequent court action.

So basically I agree with Poet's conclusion above and don't expect any real share price action although it's yet another legacy issue weighing in the balance. The staff resource required to address a gratuitous problem like this will be/have been significant and may delay the touted reduction in MER factored presently. But the only thing not factored in to current guidance would be any needed increase in the actual provision and the announcement avoids any mention.

[Antipodean]

Judgement should be similar to previous incident involving similar FMA action:

https://www.fma.govt.nz/assets/Enforcement/Judgements/Medical-Assurance-Society-NZ-Ltd-Judgment.pdf

Which was $2.1m.

[Rawz]

everything is underlying this underlying that. exlude this and that. companies can just report whatever they want lol

Wont matter aye

[Southern Lad]

Note 2.9 to the 2023 financial statements:

"A customer remediation provision of $3.7m was first recognised at 30 September 2022. During the current year, the estimated cost of remediation was re-assessed. A range of possible outcomes was considered, and a mid-point of the re-assessment has resulted in an additional $8.1m being recognised in the current period, which has been offset by payments made during the period. The resulting provision allows for amounts to be repaid to customers and costs associated with any potential regulatory action. The remediation activities are likely to be completed during FY24".

[Rawz]

I’ve been thinking about rates dropping and interest income dropping over the next 2 years. I can only assume the FY25 profit range of $40m-$60m and FY26 profit range of $60m-$80m factors in rates dropping. And this is part of the reason why the spread is so large?

I don’t suppose anyone has seen a broker report that has run the scenarios?

[Leemsip]

Hopefully they are locking the huge pile of cash into a nice ladder of deposits and bonds which maximises revenue over many years while still letting them pull it out in case of emergency, while still operating nimbly within all the insurance regulations.

It is TWR though, so probably all sitting in the cheque account or 1 month rollers.

[Lego_Man]

Hopefully they are locking the huge pile of cash into a nice ladder of deposits and bonds which maximises revenue over many years while still letting them pull it out in case of emergency, while still operating nimbly within all the insurance regulations.

It is TWR though, so probably all sitting in the cheque account or 1 month rollers.

As far as i'm aware, Nikko Funds Management are managing it for them in a <1 year duration high grade bond portfolio.

[Sgt Pepper]

I am somewhat surprised TWR share price has not gained more traction at this stage, or am I being impatient??

[ronaldson]

I am somewhat surprised TWR share price has not gained more traction at this stage, or am I being impatient??

"Impatient" gets my vote. The announcement earlier this month, even though at least partially provisioned for, has been yet another reality check.

I don't anticipate any meaningful adjustment to the share price until the half year results announcement in May. A positive though is that media reporting hasn't identified anything currently that would seem to make more than a very minor inroad into the FY24 "large events" allowance.

[bull....]

"Impatient" gets my vote. The announcement earlier this month, even though at least partially provisioned for, has been yet another reality check.

I don't anticipate any meaningful adjustment to the share price until the half year results announcement in May. A positive though is that media reporting hasn't identified anything currently that would seem to make more than a very minor inroad into the FY24 "large events" allowance.

I agree. should be a very good half yr announcement as long as disasters dont happen.

[Lego_Man]

I'm expecting a slow wake up as this stock has been a disappointment for fund managers for a very long time. It will need to start spewing out good dividends for at least a good half year before the price really catches up. I would be happy with 90c by Christmas.

[Rawz]

Picture a chart of a Turkey being fattened up for Christmas.
It starts in the bottom left hand corner on 1st January.Each day you feed the turkey, and it puts on weight,and each day you mark on your chart,and the chart starts heading for the top right hand corner.Looks fantastic.But then on the 13th December you chop off the turkeys head.Chart drops to Zero.Insurance companies are the same.Fat profits until a huge underwriting disasterous loss cuts off their head.!
Read the history of Lloyds.
Haha this is a good post from 6 years ago. (I’m just reading the thread learning more about TWRs history which is quite interesting)

I reckon we are in January right now. Remind me to sell the turkey before the head gets cut off in December- this should be FY26

[ronaldson]

Hey Rawz - HY24 now done and dusted.

I wonder how much of the "large events" allowance has had to be expensed? Very little by my reckoning, and hence the results announcement should be very positive, notwithstanding the multi policy discount refunds issue (which must surely be 95% dealt with now) and related FMA court action.

An optimist might even think a resumption of dividend is probable!

[Leemsip]

Buyback FFS. chuck $40m at it

[Rawz]

Hey Rawz - HY24 now done and dusted.

I wonder how much of the "large events" allowance has had to be expensed? Very little by my reckoning, and hence the results announcement should be very positive, notwithstanding the multi policy discount refunds issue (which must surely be 95% dealt with now) and related FMA court action.

An optimist might even think a resumption of dividend is probable!

TWR historically is a serial underperformer. Being an investor in TWR over the last 10 years has been painful. Maybe more painful over the last 5 years as there has been so much hope that finally the business will live up to its potential but year after year there is one reason or another why they cant produce the profits they should and pay the dividends they should.

However, if one can look through the earthquake stuff, EQC cap raising requirement, settlement with reinsurers, capex requirements + rollout of new cloud based platform, grappling with building cost inflation mismatch on premiums, back to back 100 year events then this is a stunning buy :cool:

[Rawz]

I now do not believe Goldman will find a buyer for TWR. If Bain capital are not willing to takeover this beast then why should someone else?

I figure TWR needs to deliver a series of strong profits before any outsiders will think about a takeover. That series about to start with this FY

[winner69]

800mm in 60 hours in forecast

That's a lot of rain

Keep safe

[Rawz]

800mm in 60 hours in forecast

That's a lot of rain

Keep safe

Should I sell?

[ronaldson]

Should I sell?

No, buy when the rain is lashing down and the TV news has pictures of small boats rescueing people.

[Lego_Man]

No, buy when the rain is lashing down and the TV news has pictures of small boats rescueing people.

Sell the forecast, buy the storm.

[Rawz]

Half year just gone and we probably can assume no cash from the large event kitty ($45m) has been used. So add half of it to forecast underlying profit of $27m (top of range) and the new unpat is $49.5m.

Thats EPS of $0.13 and on SP of $0.69 means its trading on a forward P/E of 5.29.

Seems very cheap but maybe cheap for a reason as many have been to this rodeo before and have been disappointed year after year.
Is this the best investment on the NZX or is it just my turn to be disappointed? lol

FY23 saw record large event claims against GWP of 7.02%. Avg before that in prior few years was 2-4% of GWP. FY19 must have been a lovely year with only $1m of large event loss equaling 0.28% of GWP.
The FY24 / FY25 / FY26 guidance provided by TWR have used similar 7-7.5% ratio to GWP for their large event allowance, I.e. in line with FY23 very bad year with the floods, cyclone etc. I do not know what industry avg is but if that large event % to GWP is more like 0.28%-4% which the company experienced in FY19/20/21/22 then profits in the coming years will be humongous and price is a multiple of 2-3 times FY26 profits.

I think the downside risk here is low, maybe SP goes to 59/60cent level if it gets really bad. But if it goes really good then SP should be in for one heck of a re-rate and go to $2.60 type thing.
Anyways TWR is a serial disappointment so unsure how it goes. I just feel it's a low risk of losing much money here but good chance to get a bag or two. Thoughts?

[kiwikeith]

Half year just gone and we probably can assume no cash from the large event kitty ($45m) has been used. So add half of it to forecast underlying profit of $27m (top of range) and the new unpat is $49.5m.

Thats EPS of $0.13 and on SP of $0.69 means its trading on a forward P/E of 5.29.

Seems very cheap but maybe cheap for a reason as many have been to this rodeo before and have been disappointed year after year.
Is this the best investment on the NZX or is it just my turn to be disappointed? lol

FY23 saw record large event claims against GWP of 7.02%. Avg before that in prior few years was 2-4% of GWP. FY19 must have been a lovely year with only $1m of large event loss equaling 0.28% of GWP.
The FY24 / FY25 / FY26 guidance provided by TWR have used similar 7-7.5% ratio to GWP for their large event allowance, I.e. in line with FY23 very bad year with the floods, cyclone etc. I do not know what industry avg is but if that large event % to GWP is more like 0.28%-4% which the company experienced in FY19/20/21/22 then profits in the coming years will be humongous and price is a multiple of 2-3 times FY26 profits.

I think the downside risk here is low, maybe SP goes to 59/60cent level if it gets really bad. But if it goes really good then SP should be in for one heck of a re-rate and go to $2.60 type thing.
Anyways TWR is a serial disappointment so unsure how it goes. I just feel it's a low risk of losing much money here but good chance to get a bag or two. Thoughts?

I had similar thoughts and have owned TWR twice before and just got fed up waiting. It just seemed like these once in a hundred year events appeared to be happening every 2-3 years. So get ready for another flood, or hailstorm or eathquake etc etc to come along soon

[ronaldson]

It is correct that the first half of FY24 will be a very good result when announced in May.

On the other hand I expect there will be further provisioning for the ChCh event, the multi-policy discount fiasco and the related FMA court proceeding, along with the long tail of cyclone Gabriel and the Auckland floods. So more housekeeping will soak it up yet one more time. But that will "clear the decks" and if the second half is equally free of "large events" then for the first time in more than a decade TWR will finally be in good shape. But that is weather/earthquake/volcanic dependant and needs fingers crossed because we are exposed on all those fronts.

Even the rest of this week may tell a tale!

[Southern Lad]

Half year just gone and we probably can assume no cash from the large event kitty ($45m) has been used. So add half of it to forecast underlying profit of $27m (top of range) and the new unpat is $49.5m.

Thats EPS of $0.13 and on SP of $0.69 means its trading on a forward P/E of 5.29.

If the large events allowance isn't used at all, there will be a tax effect on the saving. At a 28% tax rate, this would add $32.4m to the NPAT for the full year.

So for the half year, the underlying NPAT might be $27m + $32.4m / 2 = $29.7m.

[Rawz]

If the large events allowance isn't used at all, there will be a tax effect on the saving. At a 28% tax rate, this would add $32.4m to the NPAT for the full year.

So for the half year, the underlying NPAT might be $27m + $32.4m / 2 = $29.7m.

True that. Although I thought that TWR didnt have to pay tax for awhile with tax losses to use up

[Southern Lad]

True that. Although I thought that TWR didnt have to pay tax for awhile with tax losses to use up

Yes, but TWR has recognised a deferred tax asset on its tax losses so there will be tax expense as these tax losses are used up, just not a cash cost.

[ronaldson]

At the AGM officers indicated TWR wasn't expecting to pay tax in cash to IRD until 2026/27. Pending that the deferred tax asset is incrementally reduced.

But if FY24 is a really good year, as some of us are speculating if the inroads into the "large events" allowance are mitigated, then that timeline could be accelerated, and imputation credits might then be applied to dividends sooner.

[Leemsip]

Thanks for the analysis RAWZ.. seems like a no brainer eh. Higher interest rates for longer is all good as well, with their huge cash FLOAT (dont tell Valueinvestor), hoovering up interest revenue.

Trouble with owning tower is that there is always something which ends up scuppering the amazing year.... Spent 3 years in TWR purgatory previously.

I am now a reasonably big owner (by my meagre standards) again, and continuing to invest here when I find cash down the back of the couch.

[Leemsip]

Any ideas on who to write to inside Tower to recommend a massive buyback with the cash until imputation credits are available?

[winner69]

Any ideas on who to write to inside Tower to recommend a massive buyback with the cash until imputation credits are available?

Could drop Emily an email to forward to ChaIr Michael. She seems to Corporate Affairs person

emily.davies@tower.co.nz

[Rawz]

I am sure Stiassny (who holds 600,000 shares) does not need to be told any major windfall from large event allowance goes straight into a buyback.... surely..

After all when they got the EQC payout and had all that balance sheet strength they did the $30m capital return early 2022 was it?

In Stiassny we trust.

[Lego_Man]

I am sure Stiassny (who holds 600,000 shares) does not need to be told any major windfall from large event allowance goes straight into a buyback.... surely..

After all when they got the EQC payout and had all that balance sheet strength they did the $30m capital return early 2022 was it?

In Stiassny we trust.


Unfortunately they may calculate that the "PR boost" to the uneducated NZ retail investor market from resumption of dividends will be greater.

I would absolutely love a buyback programme commencing later this year.

[Leemsip]

Have written to Emily today. Will let you know how it goes...

[Rawz]

Maybe token dividend + buyback, like how MHJ shed their super profits. Not as if that went well with SP at 76cents now lol

[bull....]

expecting huge profits , in favour of buy back

[bull....]

doubled up again yest as big volume being accumulated this week. expect announcement on strategic reveiw with results perhaps

[Leemsip]

What % of portfolio bull? I’m at about 10% twr

[bull....]

What % of portfolio bull? I’m at about 10% twr

my portfolio is not constrained to just NZ but if we are talking of just the NZ portion of the portfolio it is 15% , if total portfolio of course much smaller.

[Rawz]

What % of portfolio bull? I’m at about 10% twr

Why do you have such a low portfolio allocation to something so cheap? Or have you found better bets?

The business (operation wise) is hitting its stride and the SP is in an uptrend. The run has started but still at the bottom.

Management have provided us sight on future earnings so half the job is done.

IMO the way I see it there is small odds of losing a little bit of money but big odds of doubling+ our money. Worth a decent punt on TWR at 70cents imo.

[Leemsip]

Yeah agree. I’m trying not to trade often and stay the course with prior investments unless the thesis breaks. Got about 10-15 stonks going at any one time so 10% is maxish allocation. I am quite risk averse as well so I would rather make less but with low volatility than boom and bust.

That said this sort of mature investing is a huge mental struggle and I want to sell everything and chuck it into twr, Eml (asx) and gdc(asx) as these all have legs and are no brainers imo.

[Leemsip]

Also recent experiences have shown me the things that end up doing great are often not the ones you have high conviction on so good to have a few more fingers in pies or irons in fires than your instinct demands

[Rawz]

Yeah agree. I’m trying not to trade often and stay the course with prior investments unless the thesis breaks. Got about 10-15 stonks going at any one time so 10% is maxish allocation. I am quite risk averse as well so I would rather make less but with low volatility than boom and bust.

That said this sort of mature investing is a huge mental struggle and I want to sell everything and chuck it into twr, Eml (asx) and gdc(asx) as these all have legs and are no brainers imo.

I used to be well diversified but recently changed to high concentration of 3-4 stocks. It’s working way better. The companies must have low debt or none is preferred (net cash). Profitable. Be in a good news up cycle, provide guidance that shows they are undervalued. If they have all this I’m okay to bet big. This only works in my current stage in life.

[Leemsip]

1mill shares traded Friday. Huge pick up in volume as per bull. Interesting…. Anyone got a buyout price they would be happy with? $1.20?

[Lego_Man]

1mill shares traded Friday. Huge pick up in volume as per bull. Interesting…. Anyone got a buyout price they would be happy with? $1.20?

For what it's worth, Forysth Barr have a 1.41 price target on.

I also love the stock for its portfolio diversification properties - it's not bothered by inflation and higher interest rates.

[Rawz]

1mill shares traded Friday. Huge pick up in volume as per bull. Interesting…. Anyone got a buyout price they would be happy with? $1.20?

FY26 underlying EPS guidance from the company is 18cents. Thats a forward looking p/e of 3.8

Over the last 7 years TWR has traded on an avg 9.4x P/E. Im happy to wait for the re-rate back to 9.4x. I.e. 18cents x 9.4= $1.69 sp. This is 138% gain from an investment today. Plus dividend yield is going to be double digits.

This is worth a big punt

[bull....]

FY26 underlying EPS guidance from the company is 18cents. Thats a forward looking p/e of 3.8

Over the last 7 years TWR has traded on an avg 9.4x P/E. Im happy to wait for the re-rate back to 9.4x. I.e. 18cents x 9.4= $1.69 sp. This is 138% gain from an investment today. Plus dividend yield is going to be double digits.

This is worth a big punt

buyback will make the fundamentals even more appealing

[Lego_Man]

The Alpine Fault is the only thing that can halt the rise of TWR now ;-)

[Rawz]

4m shares gone through at 73cents

[bull....]

4m shares gone through at 73cents

something big is up eh volumes last week massive

[Leemsip]

So maybe a buyback?

-------------------------------------------

Thank you for your considered note and for your investment in Tower. We certainly share your aspirations for a strong next couple of years and beyond.

Tower’s Board considers it important to maximise the efficient use of capital and to provide a return on capital to Tower’s shareholders. As such the Board regularly considers Tower’s capital position and, where prudent to do so, the range of options it has available to return any surplus capital back to shareholders. For example, Tower has previously returned capital (via a share buy-back) from an excess solvency position in FY22 and this is an option the board has to redistribute capital to shareholders.

I would also note that capital distributions (via dividends or other means) are subject to our dividend & capital management policies:


Tower’s policy is to pay a sustainable annual dividend to shareholders that aims to be in the range between 60-80% of “adjusted earnings” (defined as the reported full year Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) plus acquisition amortisation and unusual items) for the Tower consolidated group, where prudent to do so.
Tower’s capital management policy stipulates the amount of target solvency capital Tower aims to hold above regulatory requirements, and this informs the Board as to how much capital is available for distributing funds back to shareholders.


Tower’s updated solvency position will be shared at our half year results in May.

Regarding imputation credits, we acknowledge that the dividends are currently not imputed due to the tax losses brought forward that offset any current tax payable to IRD so that new imputation credits are not being created. Under the current targets we issued at our ASM, we expect to utilise these tax losses some time in FY26, from which time cash payments of tax will recommence and imputation credits will be available. The Board considers that it is in the interests of shareholders to continue to pay a sustainable annual dividend, even if no imputation credits are available.

Michael Stiassny

[Rawz]

In Stiassny we trust <3

[Rawz]

Sell side nearly gone. Market waking up to the cheapest stock on the NZX

[ronaldson]

It's "moving day" as they say at the big golf events, so did you make the cut here?

[winner69]

Are we going to get to 80 this week?

[percy]

It's "moving day" as they say at the big golf events, so did you make the cut here?

I moved into a few today,at average cost of 73 cents..

[Lego_Man]

I moved into a few today,at average cost of 73 cents..

Off to the races now...I suspect one of the large brokers is making a move. Forsyth Barr have been bullish for a while.

As usual you never feel like you have enough holding in these breakout situations.

[Sideshow Bob]

I moved into a few today,at average cost of 73 cents..

So did I Percy.

Hopefully we are "well positioned"!!

Trust you were the 4 million that went through?? :p

[Rawz]

So maybe a buyback?

-------------------------------------------

Thank you for your considered note and for your investment in Tower. We certainly share your aspirations for a strong next couple of years and beyond.

Tower’s Board considers it important to maximise the efficient use of capital and to provide a return on capital to Tower’s shareholders. As such the Board regularly considers Tower’s capital position and, where prudent to do so, the range of options it has available to return any surplus capital back to shareholders. For example, Tower has previously returned capital (via a share buy-back) from an excess solvency position in FY22 and this is an option the board has to redistribute capital to shareholders.

I would also note that capital distributions (via dividends or other means) are subject to our dividend & capital management policies:


Tower’s policy is to pay a sustainable annual dividend to shareholders that aims to be in the range between 60-80% of “adjusted earnings” (defined as the reported full year Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) plus acquisition amortisation and unusual items) for the Tower consolidated group, where prudent to do so.
Tower’s capital management policy stipulates the amount of target solvency capital Tower aims to hold above regulatory requirements, and this informs the Board as to how much capital is available for distributing funds back to shareholders.


Tower’s updated solvency position will be shared at our half year results in May.

Regarding imputation credits, we acknowledge that the dividends are currently not imputed due to the tax losses brought forward that offset any current tax payable to IRD so that new imputation credits are not being created. Under the current targets we issued at our ASM, we expect to utilise these tax losses some time in FY26, from which time cash payments of tax will recommence and imputation credits will be available. The Board considers that it is in the interests of shareholders to continue to pay a sustainable annual dividend, even if no imputation credits are available.

Michael Stiassny

thanks for sharing Leemsip.

Sounds like they are keen to pay dividends even without imp credits. all good.

if you take midpoint of their payout range and midpoint of their guidance the dividends will look something like this:

FY24
70% x 0.065 EPS = 0.045 dps or 6% yield

FY25
70% x 0.13 EPS= 0.09 dps or 13% yield

FY26
70% x 0.18 EPS= 0.129 dps or 18% yield

FY24 doesnt include any large event write back (of which we assume none has been used so far this year,, 6.5months through the year) so is very conservative.

[percy]

So did I Percy.

Hopefully we are "well positioned"!!

Trust you were the 4 million that went through?? :p

No not me...lol.

[winner69]

So did I Percy.

Hopefully we are "well positioned"!!

Trust you were the 4 million that went through?? :p

Not ‘well positioned’ ..these days it’s “positioned for a dynamic future."

[bull....]

So maybe a buyback?

-------------------------------------------

Thank you for your considered note and for your investment in Tower. We certainly share your aspirations for a strong next couple of years and beyond.

Tower’s Board considers it important to maximise the efficient use of capital and to provide a return on capital to Tower’s shareholders. As such the Board regularly considers Tower’s capital position and, where prudent to do so, the range of options it has available to return any surplus capital back to shareholders. For example, Tower has previously returned capital (via a share buy-back) from an excess solvency position in FY22 and this is an option the board has to redistribute capital to shareholders.

I would also note that capital distributions (via dividends or other means) are subject to our dividend & capital management policies:


Tower’s policy is to pay a sustainable annual dividend to shareholders that aims to be in the range between 60-80% of “adjusted earnings” (defined as the reported full year Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) plus acquisition amortisation and unusual items) for the Tower consolidated group, where prudent to do so.
Tower’s capital management policy stipulates the amount of target solvency capital Tower aims to hold above regulatory requirements, and this informs the Board as to how much capital is available for distributing funds back to shareholders.


Tower’s updated solvency position will be shared at our half year results in May.

Regarding imputation credits, we acknowledge that the dividends are currently not imputed due to the tax losses brought forward that offset any current tax payable to IRD so that new imputation credits are not being created. Under the current targets we issued at our ASM, we expect to utilise these tax losses some time in FY26, from which time cash payments of tax will recommence and imputation credits will be available. The Board considers that it is in the interests of shareholders to continue to pay a sustainable annual dividend, even if no imputation credits are available.

Michael Stiassny

thx leemsip. hopefully share buyback. most efficient form of cap management at these prices i reckon

[Rawz]

thx leemsip. hopefully share buyback. most efficient form of cap management at these prices i reckon

could see both. if the large event allowance isnt used and the balance sheet is comfortably strong over and above the regulatory requirements there could be 'sustainable annual dividend' and capital returned from an 'excess solvency position'

[bull....]

could see both. if the large event allowance isnt used and the balance sheet is comfortably strong over and above the regulatory requirements there could be 'sustainable annual dividend' and capital returned from an 'excess solvency position'

both are probable at the time. tower have history of doing both with excess capital. key is what level they set as there solvency level. this probably tied in with there strategic consulting

[Rawz]

Research Notes - MST Access (https://www.mstaccess.com.au/research-notes)

This is forbar research. TWR has paid them to put this together. This is money well spent by TWR on behalf of shareholders imo. You can click the link above and see all the free research reports on many a company. pretty cool aye.

Rawz executive summary: TWR cheap as chips.

------------------------------------------------

Tower (TWR) has experienced a positive reversal of fortunes, with its 1H24 likely including zero large events. The absenceof large events means: (1) TWR is likely to report an exceptionally strong 1H24 result, and (2) there is significant upside riskto FY24 guidance of ‘the upper end or above the NZ$22m–NZ$27m range in underlying NPAT’. TWR's guidance includesNZ$45m of large events allowance, and we estimate none was utilised in 1H24. Accordingly, we adjust our forecasts byreducing our FY24 large events allowance -50%, choosing to be conservative despite large events having historically beenheavily skewed to the 1H. We also reduce our business as usual (BAU) claims ratio to account for premium growth and acontinued normalisation of motor claims, seeing our FY24 underlying profit estimate lift by +84% to NZ$49.2m. TWRtrades at a large discount to its peer group. We view the widening valuation gap as increasingly unjustified, especially giventhe upside risk to FY24 earnings expectations. Our blended spot valuation increases by +22% to NZ$1.41

A stellar 1H24 result likely on 28 May 2024

TWR is likely to report a stellar H24 result on 28 May 2024. We anticipate tailwinds from: (1) the lack of large events in the period, (2)continued strong GWP growth, (3) robust investment returns, (4) a normalisation in claims frequency and severity, and (5) furtherimprovements in the management expense ratio (MER). Assuming a business as usual (BAU) claims ratio of 52.1% and MER of 29.6%,we forecast underlying NPAT of NZ$35.1m. While not included in our forecasts, the strong 1H24 result may allow sufficient capitalrecovery for TWR to declare an interim dividend.

Benign weather boosts FY24

We estimate that TWR experienced no large events in the 1H24 period that ended on 31 March 2024. Given this fortunate position,we expect TWR to provide an update regarding its large events allowance for FY24 at its 1H24 result or earlier. A partial unwind ofthe allowance is a near certainty, especially in the context of ~81% of TWR's large events costs occurring in 1H periods since FY18,and the worst 2H large events expense since FY18 being only NZ$4.6m. Nevertheless, we expect TWR to be conservative and retain asignificant allowance. Reflecting this, we reduce our FY24 large events allowance -50% to NZ$22.5m.

Valuation support increasing

TWR trades at just 5.2x 12-month forward underlying earnings on our updated estimates, offering substantial upside to peers IAG on16.3x and SUN on ~15.1x. Over the last seven years TWR has traded on an average 12-month forward PE of 9.4x and at an averagediscount to its peers of -37%, meaning TWR trades below its historical valuation ranges. We find this difficult to reconcile given TWR'simproving business fundamentals, with increased scale driving improved efficiency and returns

[bull....]

Research Notes - MST Access (https://www.mstaccess.com.au/research-notes)

This is forbar research. TWR has paid them to put this together. This is money well spent by TWR on behalf of shareholders imo. You can click the link above and see all the free research reports on many a company. pretty cool aye.

Rawz executive summary: TWR cheap as chips.

------------------------------------------------

Tower (TWR) has experienced a positive reversal of fortunes, with its 1H24 likely including zero large events. The absenceof large events means: (1) TWR is likely to report an exceptionally strong 1H24 result, and (2) there is significant upside riskto FY24 guidance of ‘the upper end or above the NZ$22m–NZ$27m range in underlying NPAT’. TWR's guidance includesNZ$45m of large events allowance, and we estimate none was utilised in 1H24. Accordingly, we adjust our forecasts byreducing our FY24 large events allowance -50%, choosing to be conservative despite large events having historically beenheavily skewed to the 1H. We also reduce our business as usual (BAU) claims ratio to account for premium growth and acontinued normalisation of motor claims, seeing our FY24 underlying profit estimate lift by +84% to NZ$49.2m. TWRtrades at a large discount to its peer group. We view the widening valuation gap as increasingly unjustified, especially giventhe upside risk to FY24 earnings expectations. Our blended spot valuation increases by +22% to NZ$1.41

A stellar 1H24 result likely on 28 May 2024

TWR is likely to report a stellar H24 result on 28 May 2024. We anticipate tailwinds from: (1) the lack of large events in the period, (2)continued strong GWP growth, (3) robust investment returns, (4) a normalisation in claims frequency and severity, and (5) furtherimprovements in the management expense ratio (MER). Assuming a business as usual (BAU) claims ratio of 52.1% and MER of 29.6%,we forecast underlying NPAT of NZ$35.1m. While not included in our forecasts, the strong 1H24 result may allow sufficient capitalrecovery for TWR to declare an interim dividend.

Benign weather boosts FY24

We estimate that TWR experienced no large events in the 1H24 period that ended on 31 March 2024. Given this fortunate position,we expect TWR to provide an update regarding its large events allowance for FY24 at its 1H24 result or earlier. A partial unwind ofthe allowance is a near certainty, especially in the context of ~81% of TWR's large events costs occurring in 1H periods since FY18,and the worst 2H large events expense since FY18 being only NZ$4.6m. Nevertheless, we expect TWR to be conservative and retain asignificant allowance. Reflecting this, we reduce our FY24 large events allowance -50% to NZ$22.5m.

Valuation support increasing

TWR trades at just 5.2x 12-month forward underlying earnings on our updated estimates, offering substantial upside to peers IAG on16.3x and SUN on ~15.1x. Over the last seven years TWR has traded on an average 12-month forward PE of 9.4x and at an averagediscount to its peers of -37%, meaning TWR trades below its historical valuation ranges. We find this difficult to reconcile given TWR'simproving business fundamentals, with increased scale driving improved efficiency and returns

thx . significant upside alright based on forbar analysis

[Rawz]

thx . significant upside alright based on forbar analysis

so we are going to see the double engine growth dream. 1) EPS growth from FY24 to FY26 and then 2) re-rate back to historical valuation range.

Heck depending on FY27-FY28 it could be the 1 in 100 year event TRIPLE ENGINE GROWTH DREAM... 1) EPS growth, 2) re-rate to historical valuation then 3) multiple expansion to new valuation range in line with peers IAG and SUN

:t_up:

[bull....]

more big off-market trades going thru again at 74c

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/429654

28th May for results

[Rawz]

SP up 25% year to date. And just starting its run imo

[Poet]

Market currently up another 1.5c to 75c in an otherwise shabby day for the markets.
TWR Market depth currently has only 30,000 shares available for less than 1.30

Wonder if we will see a SSH soon

[ronaldson]

I don't know about an SPH from any party (but it would be an interesting/revealing event if filed) but there will not be volume offered again around 75c any time soon in my opinion.

Maybe price will reach 80c this week before settling to await the half year result announcement and any accompanying commentery/disclosures?

[Rawz]

there is just nothing on offer. Buyers need to big up to see where the sellers are at. Not sure if there is some TA resistance ahead? any guru care to share a chart?

[Rawz]

80cents today?
$1 after half year results in May?

[bull....]

twr probably do update on guidance before results i imagine

[winner69]

twr probably do update on guidance before results i imagine

Might do that when they respond to speeding ticket

[Poet]

twr probably do update on guidance before results i imagine

Spot on. Updated guidance just released at $35m underlying NPAt (plus whatever they can retain from the $45m large events allowance, none of which has yet been used)

[Rawz]

Spot on. Updated guidance just released at $35m underlying NPAt (plus whatever they can retain from the $45m large events allowance, none of which has yet been used)
Omg that’s huge. Really it’s going to be $57m npat When you add back half the large event…?

Wow

[bull....]

Full year underlying NPAT is expected to be greater than $35m. Previously Tower had advised that it expected underlying NPAT to be at the top end of or exceeding a range of between $22m and $27m. This updated guidance assumes full utilisation of the FY24 large events allowance which is conservatively set at $45m. No large events have been recorded in the financial year to date.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/429724

massive update ... doesnt even incorporate large event provisions. if no large events at full yr it be massive result.

pe of 1 at current pricing lol .... massive undervalued stock. compare to aus insurers up greater than 50% last yr and twr up 15% odd huge gap in performance , like forbar say cant understAand this. re -rate time

[ronaldson]

I don't know about an SPH from any party (but it would be an interesting/revealing event if filed) but there will not be volume offered again around 75c any time soon in my opinion.

Maybe price will reach 80c this week before settling to await the half year result announcement and any accompanying commentery/disclosures?

I don't often use the term "going gangbusters" in relation to a share price but it applies here this week. No telling now where it will end.

[Leemsip]

I am trying to chase the share price up now and buy. Going up so fast.... holy smoke, lol

[Leemsip]

Update: Ive done it. And managed to push the price up to 84c.
Thank me later RAWZ...

[Rawz]

Tower is in a strong good news up cycle. How good :cool:

[Rawz]

Update: Ive done it. And managed to push the price up to 84c.
Thank me later RAWZ...

84 cents a good price imo.

They say underlying NPAT to be GREATER than $35m. So maybe could be $36m or $37m??

Lets say $36.5m and be fair and add half the large event allowance being $22.5m. Underlying NPAT reported could be $59m. Thats EPS of $0.16
So at $0.84 sp a P/E of 5.25. Very conservative buying imo. Forbar say avg P/E is 9.4 so your target fair value could be $0.16 eps x 9.4= $1.50. i.e. 78% above your buy price.

And dividend say 70% payout on $0.16 = $0.11 DPS. Thats a yield of 13% on your $0.84 buy.

TWR STILL the cheapest NZX stock...

[winner69]

Some might say their premiums are excessive

But who cares …. thats the insured problem …I’m not feeling guilty

[Rawz]

Some might say their premiums are excessive

But who cares …. thats the insured problem …I’m not feeling guilty

Yes my premiums are through the roof. Best way to sort that is to own your insurance company lol

[ronaldson]

Rawz - Today you are up to 2nd place in the 2024 stockpicking competition! Glory be to those who included TWR as a pick!

[Rawz]

Rawz - Today you are up to 2nd place in the 2024 stockpicking competition! Glory be to those who included TWR as a pick!

Glory to TWR!

Ive been saying buy TWR for awhile now :t_up:

[Sideshow Bob]

Glory to TWR!

Ive been saying buy TWR for awhile now :t_up:

Forget about the Findi horse for a bit......time to ride Tower to glory!! :p

[Leemsip]

Some might say their premiums are excessive

But who cares …. thats the insured problem …I’m not feeling guilty

Selling to willing market buyers at the current fair market price gif...

[Rawz]

Forget about the Findi horse for a bit......time to ride Tower to glory!! :p

TWR stands tall over all. The shining light of the NZX. Will see us through the darkness to come

Findi is in the naughty corner lol

[Lego_Man]

In a year's time when everyone has forgotten about the one year of crazy weather, this will be seen as a stock you have to own.

CPI data out today shows limited progress in NZ on taming core inflation, insurance companies are inflation proof unlike any other sector - beneficiaries of higher interest rates.

Wouldn't sell any of my holding for less than $1.50

[Rawz]

Looks like the buyers found the sellers at the 80-90cent range. Plenty have filled at various prices.

Most holders should be in the green or at least breakeven when looking at the 5 year chart. Peaked at 88cents May 2021 but assuming some dividends should be even.

Recent investors will be looking for $1+. Recent traders maybe looking to take their profits?

Personally I'm happy to hold for the huge dividend yield on my entry price and see where the re-rate takes us.

[Leemsip]

Nice call RAWZ. I have a full allocation as of yesterday. Think the up-leg has burned out now.

Traditionally Tower will drift demoralizingly lower on no news towards the gravity of 60c, but it does feel different this time. Happy to hold long term and see what happens...

[ronaldson]

Looks like the buyers found the sellers at the 80-90cent range. Plenty have filled at various prices.

Most holders should be in the green or at least breakeven when looking at the 5 year chart. Peaked at 88cents May 2021 but assuming some dividends should be even.

Recent investors will be looking for $1+. Recent traders maybe looking to take their profits?

Personally I'm happy to hold for the huge dividend yield on my entry price and see where the re-rate takes us.

I made a small trade first thing Tuesday via my Company and exited this morning.

But it's my second largest holding under other hats (behind ARG for pie dividend income) and these won't be dislodged given the longer term payoff prospects in spite of the inherent underlying risk of an extreme adverse event.

[Grimy]

I did buy a small number yesterday, having last had Tower when I sold at $2.08 in 2008.......

[Leemsip]

Sell high, (wait 16 years, fingers hovering over the keyboard), buy low.....
Respect

[Grimy]

Sometimes I jump too soon. Sometimes I jump too late........

[percy]

www.chrislee.co.nz
This week's "Market News" covers Tower.

[Rawz]

26/04/2024 08:30
CREDIT
NOT PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 0830 HRS Tower Limited

CREDIT: TWR: AM Best affirms Tower Limited's A- (Excellent) FSR

26 April, 2024

AM Best affirms Tower Limited's A- (Excellent) Financial Strength Rating

Global credit rating agency AM Best has affirmed Tower Limited's Financial
Strength Rating as A- (Excellent), with a stable outlook, after completing
its annual review. Tower's Long-Term Issuer Credit Rating was also affirmed
as a- (Excellent), with a stable outlook.

The ratings reflect Tower's balance sheet strength, which AM Best assesses as
very strong. AM Best expects Tower's risk-adjusted capitalisation to remain
at least at the very strong level over the medium term.

AM Best also noted Tower's adequate operating performance, neutral business
profile and appropriate enterprise risk management, in addition to the
company's strong financial flexibility, prudent reinsurance programme and
conservative investment strategy.

Tower Chair, Michael Stiassny welcomed the AM Best rating affirmation, noting
that it supports the confidence investors and customers have in Tower's
financial stability and performance.

Further details of Tower's AM Best rating can be found in the following link:
https://news.ambest.com/PR/PressContent.aspx?altsrc=2&refnum=34630

ENDS

[Leemsip]

General consensus of higher inflation. Stocks coming off today. Should be good for TWR float though.