Zinc

[Huang Chung]

Base metals fans (if there are any left) might find this article on zinc of some interest.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lee/oct202008.html

[tobo]

this is the bit i like

"Now with prices back to the 3-year low of 70 cents/lb, (a historic low level when adjusted for inflation), the market has presented another chance to ride the secular bull in Zinc."

ToBo

[Huang Chung]

Yes Tobo, the report was a little dated, but it was more the background info that lead me to post the article.

Zinc now under US50c a lb, and 30 day LME inventories show a rise in warehouse stock levels, pointing to possibly more downside pressure on the zn price.

Significantly more zinc production to be shut down no doubt.

Now if you look at this from a glass half full perspective, we could be in for the mother of all rallies at some point in time...every chance that at some point there will be a panic that too much production has been withheld, and there bwill be a scramble to secure supply. The trick will be in the timing :rolleyes:.

[tricha]

Yes Tobo, the report was a little dated, but it was more the background info that lead me to post the article.

Zinc now under US50c a lb, and 30 day LME inventories show a rise in warehouse stock levels, pointing to possibly more downside pressure on the zn price.

Significantly more zinc production to be shut down no doubt.

Now if you look at this from a glass half full perspective, we could be in for the mother of all rallies at some point in time...every chance that at some point there will be a panic that too much production has been withheld, and there bwill be a scramble to secure supply. The trick will be in the timing :rolleyes:.

The way I am reading is a slow down is well underway in China, like oil, demand destruction will see China become a net exporter of Zinc again.
Predict where China is going to be in a year and you will be a winner :)
Unlike oil which once used is basically gone for ever, recycling as stated in your report makes a difference.

Source: International Lead and Zinc Study Group
Largest Zinc Producing Nations (tonnes)
China
2,600,000
Australia
1,380,000
Peru
1,201,794
United States
727,000
Canada
710,000
Mexico
480,000
Ireland
425,700
India
420,800
Kazakhstan
400,000
Sweden
192,400

Source: International Lead and Zinc Study Group, 2005

Largest Zinc Consuming Nations (tonnes)
China
3,047,000
United States
1,069,000
Japan
602,000
South Korea
503,000
Germany
501,000
India
394,000
Italy
373,000
Belgium
345,000
Taiwan
306,000
France
271,000

Source: International Lead and Zinc Study Group, 2005

[Huang Chung]

Tricha, the 'oil, once used, is gone forever' argument has been postponed indefinitely, in case you hadn't noticed.

[Dr_Who]

ozl are still as far as i understand cashed up..what a time to swoop on some bargains

Ozl $1.2 billion cash, but only $300m net cash, so not that much cash compare to market cap of over $3 billion.

I can see zinc going below 50 c. If zinc cant perform during the boom, why would it perform during the bust?

[Huang Chung]

Ozl $1.2 billion cash, but only $300m net cash, so not that much cash compare to market cap of over $3 billion.

I can see zinc going below 50 c. If zinc cant perform during the boom, why would it perform during the bust?

Too late my good Doctor....it's already below 50c a lb.

If you want the definition of 'tragic', have a look at Jabiru Metals (JML). Their flagship Jaguar project is a beautifully rich but small cu/pb/zn/ag orebody, that's come into production at exactly the wrong time. They will probably have mined it out before prices recover.

[Huang Chung]

The views of Terramin's Executive Chairman, Kevin Moriarty, on the state of the zinc market are always worth considering in my opinion.

Have a read of his views on zinc in the attached quarterly released today.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TZN&E=ASX&N=169023

One snippet...

'The current price (commodity) prices reflect the withdrawl and closure of commodity investor positions rather than physical commodity fundamentals. The commodity price movement and outlook is, however, causing significant changes to the world zinc mine supply statistics with many closures (Lenard Shelf, Gordonsville), curtailments (Broken Hill, Golden Grove, Galmoy) and deferments (Perkoa, Black Angel, Ozernoe) announced in the past two months, to name but a few'.

[tricha]

The views of Terramin's Executive Chairman, Kevin Moriarty, on the state of the zinc market are always worth considering in my opinion.

Have a read of his views on zinc in the attached quarterly released today.

Golden Grove, Galmoy) and deferments (Perkoa, Black Angel, Ozernoe) announced in the past two months, to name but a few'.

China reduces dependence on import of key minerals http://digg.com/img/badges/80x15-digg-badge-2.gif (http://www.chinamining.org/digg/submit.php?url=http://www.chinamining.org/News/2008-10-24/1224826460d18483.html)
(www.chinamining.org)
Updated: 2008-10-24 13:30
Counter: 287

China has eased its dependence on the import of key minerals in recent years thanks to more exploration discoveries and expanded mining capacities, according to Wang Min, vice-Minister of Land and Resources.

Now, China's lead-zinc production has met its market demand.

China imported 51.7 percent of iron ore consumption in 2007 and is expected to see lower weight of the import of iron ore this year.

The dependence on imported potash minerals dropped from 90 percent in 2001 to 70 percent in 2007, after the discoveries of chromite and nickel deposits.

Wang said that a large number of new deposits would be identified in the future as more than 70 percent of Chinese territory remain intact.

Statistics show that China has discovered 1,202 deposits since 2006. Included are 194 large-scale ones and 240 moderate ones.

[Huang Chung]

Thanks for the advice Tricha, but I'll take my chances.

By the way, we aren't being a bit selective with our posts, are we Tricha?....it took me 30sec cruising around the site you provided the link for to find the following:

http://www.chinamining.org/News/2008-04-03/1207184329d12700.html

Personally, I wouldn't necessarily believe any of it...the whole site seems like a big propaganda machine that says to foreigners WE DON'T NEED YOU, SO DON'T EXPECT US TO PAY MUCH FOR YOUR COMMODITIES.

Yeah, right......

[Huang Chung]

TORONTO - Forecasters may be overestimating the global supply of base metals, particularly zinc, Octagon Research said on Thursday, suggesting that hard-hit metal prices may rebound sooner than expected.
Analyst Hendrik Visagie said in a note that the market has been too focused on concerns about falling demand, and has been ignoring a supply side that is becoming much leaner as low prices and tight credit markets have forced producers to shut mines and delay new projects.
"We can count 800 000 tons to 1-million tons of zinc supply to come off the market for next year. That's 8 to 9 percent of the world's mine supply not there," he told Reuters.
"The point is that supply is dropping much faster than any realistic long-term demand forecast."
In the past, miners might stockpile metal and keep a mine running during a low-price environment, until prices rebound. But the freeze-up of credit markets has made this impossible, forcing mines to instead suspend operations.
Brazil's Vale became the latest producer to announce such measures on Thursday, saying it would close indefinitely its Copper Cliff South mine in Ontario, and will suspend its Voisey's Bay nickel and copper mine in Newfoundland and Labrador for one month.
Zinc, copper, and nickel prices have fallen 52%t, 51%, and 65% so far this year, while large inventories of unsold metal have prompted many to predict more declines.
But Visagie said production cutbacks have yet to hit prices, noting that it can take up to four months for ore pulled out of a mine to end up as shipped metal. This means mines closed in October may not affect end-users until February.
As well, he believes the market has overestimated the drop in demand.
Visagie expects the strongest rebound from zinc, and is also bullish on copper and lead, as well as nickel to a lesser degree.

[tricha]

Thanks for the advice Tricha, but I'll take my chances.

By the way, we aren't being a bit selective with our posts, are we Tricha?....it took me 30sec cruising around the site you provided the link for to find the following:

http://www.chinamining.org/News/2008-04-03/1207184329d12700.html

Personally, I wouldn't necessarily believe any of it...the whole site seems like a big propaganda machine that says to foreigners WE DON'T NEED YOU, SO DON'T EXPECT US TO PAY MUCH FOR YOUR COMMODITIES.

Yeah, right......

Hmm, u r partly right, but here is the crunch.

China used to be a net exporter of zinc.

It is now and thats the problem, who can compete against them, no one in OZ.:eek:

[Huang Chung]

From what I understand T, chinese zinc mines are fairly low grade, and they are suffereing from a low price just like everyone else. Can't see why they will suddenly become exporters of zinc in that environment.

[tricha]

From what I understand T, chinese zinc mines are fairly low grade, and they are suffereing from a low price just like everyone else. Can't see why they will suddenly become exporters of zinc in that environment.

I think about 900,000,000 Chinese work for a bowl of rice a day.

[SEC]

It is unfortunate that unprofitable mining companies such as Perilya and Minara are being propped up with cash by majority shareholders. The only ones that are likely to benefit are management and employees, and perhaps only short term. The minority shareholders get massively diluted with little chance of any recovery, and the base metals markets continue to get flooded with subsidised product. This in turn adds to stockpiles and prolongs a depressed metals price which in turn may cause the high cost miners to go belly up anyway. Keep away from such co's.

SEC

[Huang Chung]

Zinc battery technology

http://www.green-energy-news.com/arch/nrgs2009/20090017.html

[Huang Chung]

Borrowed from Hot Copper...

By Rex Roy
Detroit Bureau
Senior EV Editor
The Auto Channel

Detroit Janyuary 14, 2009; Surprisingly, it's been nearly two decades since the last major advance in battery technology. For non-geeky battery types, this would have been the commercialization of the Lithium Ion cell. This battery type remains the industry's standard for pure electric vehicles because it can deliver more power over a longer period of time at a lower cost than any competitive technology.

However, for what the automotive industry refers to as High Efficiency Vehicles (HEVs) — what we call conventional hybrids — a new battery technology is on the horizon that will make these vehicles less costly, less weighty, and even more green (in terms of battery pack recyclablility).

The new technology comes from the California company PowerGenix. The company holds 23 patents (granted and pending) on Nickel-Zinc batteries. The base formulation for NiZn batteries isn't new (Thomas Edison attempted but gave up on making the formulation work), but as PowerGenix CEO, Dan Squiller noted, "What the engineers and chemists at PowerGenix discovered was how to make the elements play nice together and last for an extended period of time while charging and discharging."

Currently, HEVs use Nickel Metal Hydride batteries. The new NiZn formulation packs 30-percent more power into a package that weighs 30-percent less than NiMH power cells. On top of this, the PowerGenix cells cost 20-percent less. The company has retrofitted a Toyota Prius with their batteries, and report solid results from the lighter vehicle.

In spite of this success, don't look for PowerGenix brand batteries to be on sale at your local Radio Shack or under the hood of a Toyota Prius anytime soon. While the company already manufacturers their NiZn cells for use in power tools, electric scooters, electric bikes, and for companies selling rechargeable AA and AAA batteries (check out the NiZn cells at Ritz Camera), PowerGenix has opted not to create a brand name for their batteries (they don't want to take on the big-spending bunny). Regarding automotive applications, PowerGenix plans to license their technology.

According to Squiller, the company's batteries will be used in automotive applications (HEVs) in the foreseeable future, but probably not sooner than 2011 models. "We expect that HEVs will become a standard of sorts in the next few years," Squiller said as he referenced the expansion of the "auto stop" feature on vehicles with standard internal combustion engines. "These vehicles represent the perfect application of Nickel Zinc battery technology, because they need bursts of power for short durations and this is something that our batteries do very well."

When a vehicle goes into the "auto stop" mode, the engine shuts down, but all accessories stay running. As in some GM hybrids (the Saturn Vue and Chevrolet Malibu, for example), a helper electric motor can also add torque to the internal combustion engine. NiZn batteries will supply the power for these applications. Squiller wouldn't comment on which automotive manufactures might first use PowerGenix NiZn technology, but the CEO hinted that it would be a company known for its "aggressive" pursuit of environmental technologies. Our bet is Honda and/or Mercedes.

As HEVs become more popular, there will also be a need to deal with the "dead" battery packs, and NiZn units are readily recyclable.

EV-Motoring.com will keep you posted on future battery technology updates as they become available.

[Joshuatree]

Zinc prices climbing steadily anyone got a fave Zinc mining co they would like to share about; appreciate it cheers JThttp://www.infomine.com/ChartsAndData/GraphEngine.ashx?z=t&dr=1y&g=127671

[Joshuatree]

Demand to outpace supply by 2020; Zinc likely to hit $4,500 per mt: CRU
Also read Ironbark Zinc increments capital in the same webpage

According to Helen O'Cleary, analyst at CRU, the zinc prices could retouch the 2006/2007 highs.

CRU predicts that zinc demand will outpace supply by 2020, taking the prices to $4,500 per mt. However, during this year, the prices are expected to remain flat with some intermittent rallies. The CRU analyst expects the global zinc market to remain balanced in 2014. However, it may turn deficit in 2015.

The deficit in global market is expected to aggravate as fresh supplies from mines are expected to dry up over the next 5-year period. Also, the demand from Asian region excluding China will overtake Chinese demand towards the end of this decade.

The rise in zinc prices may force end-users to look for cheaper substitutes. China - the top consumer and producer of refined zinc may see rise in domestic prices during the second quarter of the year, backed by firm industrial and construction sector demand.

The Chinese decision to speed up the construction of railway tracks and highway roads may boost the domestic demand for zinc. According to Chinese customs, the country’s imports of refined zinc during the initial two-month period of the year surged higher by 84% over the previous year.

Last month, LME Zinc prices had touched one-year highs of $2,143 per tonne. The metal closed at $1,988.75 on the LME on Friday

[Daytr]

Hey JT, I have been a massive fan of zinc for the last 3 years or so, although it has taken a long to get going & the price has finally exploded & I think its quite possible it will again reach the heights we saw back in 2006 I think it was of over $4k/ton. The main reason I have been friendly to it is due to the lack of exploration & mine development in the last 10-15 years. The collapse of Pasminco & Zinafex put paid to that & then there was Western Metals as well. We looked at trying to finance a zinc mine back in 2011 & there was no way the bank credit guys would go near it & when you dug into why, it all came down to there experience with Pasminco & I think many banks are like this in regards zinc related financing. In regards the article you posted, what's the relationship between Chinese rail & zinc? There certainly is one with copper & steel etc but zinc seems a bit tenuous to me. Is it cladding for all the additional buildings etc?
Either way it was only a matter of time before demand started to outstrip constrained supply.

The difficulty is as you saying finding the right exposure. Perilya has the old Pasminco assets. I found them pretty good to deal with but that was a few years ago. Where did the Kagara zinc/lead assets end up? I did a massive zinc/lead & copper hedge back for them back in 2005.

Venturex (VXR) is a multi metal explorer who weren't that far from looking at going into production a few years ago, before prices fell back. They had a reasonable amount of zinc.

Otherwise I'm a bit out of touch to be honest, so it would be good to hear anyone else's thoughts.

[airedale]

A couple of zincers that are on my watchlist are the recently re-named Aurelia Metals, AMI,
and Terramin Australia TZN. I don't have a recommendation on them other than that they both have a rising SP. They also have the usual base metal by-products copper and lead, along with a handy amount of gold and silver.

[Joshuatree]

Hi guys thanks for your sharing. Yes re zinc and railways ; certainly no zinc in the lines themselves.!!

Seems a good Zinc producer is hard to find. A friend instigated the Zinc thing. A few explorers HRR,IBG,MUX he found. TZN could be a ripper if it reopens Angus mine.and the Menninnie Dam deposit largest AG-PB-ZN deposit in sth aus(haven't verified any of this)

IRON BARK IBG Citronen project (greenland)with 32% IRR op cost US.68c lb smelter fees . Capital coast $429 million22c lb (feasibility study 2013)

One would need to research long and deep.Maybe look to other countries too. cheersJT

[Daytr]

Might pay to be patient. Thought this was interesting.



Weak Chinese Demand May Push Zinc Stocks To LME Warehouses
Reuters
More refined zinc is likely to be shipped from bonded warehouses in China to warehouses approved by the London Metal Exchange in Asia in the fourth quarter as tight credit crimps domestic demand at a time of increased imports, traders said. Higher shipments from China, the world's top consumer and producer of refined zinc, to LME warehouses in Asia could cap LME zinc prices, which have risen more than 10 percent this year. Chinese importers had contracted more refined zinc for term shipments for delivery in 2014 and the bulk was set to be used as collateral for loans, traders said. But tight credit in China has slowed domestic demand this year, weighing on Chinese prices, and traders said that had forced importers to store the metal in bonded warehouses, mostly in Shanghai and the southern province of Guangdong. "If importers are not able to sell the stocks into the domestic market by October ... they may ship to the LME warehouses (in Asia)," said a manager at Shanghai-based firm, which imported zinc for its own consumption and trading.
The firm estimated there was more than 100,000 tonnes of refined zinc in bonded warehouses in Shanghai currently. China's refined zinc imports surged 39 percent to 421,130 tonnes in the first seven months of the year. Some bonded zinc stocks in Guangdong that have been used in financing deals with foreign banks have already been moved to LME warehouses in Asia after an alleged metals financing scam came to light in early June, traders said. The relocation was requested by foreign banks to secure the metal, even though it was alumina, aluminium and copper stocks in Qingdao port that were involved in the financing scam, they said. Traders said Chinese banks had been willing to give letters of credit for zinc imports even after the scandal at Qingdao port, although they had tightened checks on the stocks.

[Daytr]

Zinc is about the only base metal holding up. Anyone got any ideas on producers of zinc in Australia?
There really isn't anyone left of significance that I can think of.
Probably why the price is holding up!

[penn]

Zinc is about the only base metal holding up. Anyone got any ideas on producers of zinc in Australia?
There really isn't anyone left of significance that I can think of.
Probably why the price is holding up!




ovr


Overland Resources Limited
minerals exploration company.
The Company’s core asset is the Yukon Base Metal Project,
which includes the shallow, high grade Andrew and Darcy Zinc Deposits
in the Selwyn Basin of the Yukon Territory, Canada.
So not in production, and not in based in Aus.
But "Promising" Zinc in the ground.
Market cap about $3m


Problem is SP up 80% IN THE LAST 2 DAYS!

[macduffy]

Only a small part of the overall company but South32's Cannington mines zinc - and other metals. Actually, S32 may be worth a look for its other assets, now that the shareprice is down and a lot of the reluctant shareholders ex BHP have left the register.

[babymonster]

From the your money your call program a couple days ago. They talk about zinc. Three companies mentioned, the top one is HRR. I Haven't done any research on it yet. But keen to hear from you guys.

[macduffy]

Zinc is about the only base metal holding up. Anyone got any ideas on producers of zinc in Australia?
There really isn't anyone left of significance that I can think of.
Probably why the price is holding up!

One of the bigger Australian producers is the Rosebery, Tasmania mine currently owned by MMG Ltd which is listed on the Hong Kong exchange. The mine has been through several hands over the years - I have vague memories of it being Australian-listed EZ Industries' "jewel" many moon ago!

[Daytr]

MMG came out of Zinafex/Pasminco from memory.
I know when I was in banking it was almost impossible to sell a project finance deal internally if zinc was involved.
Quite ridiculous as it was nothing to do with the metal that these companies fell over, it was poor management.
But this is part of the reason I am bullish. Its taken a very long time, but with little new mine production coming on as I understand I think zinc could do very well. The outlier is China, as you never know what they may produce.

[macduffy]

Zinc prices at an eight year high.

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical.html

[shasta]

Zinc prices at an eight year high.

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical.html

Am keeping tabs of HRR, VXR and MCT in light of there zinc based projects, for those looking at near term production options

[macduffy]

Will zinc prices remain high enough, long enough, for these companies to cash in ?

https://www.investsmart.com.au/investment-news/making-hay-while-zinc-shines/138584?utm_source=isgroup&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=free-weekend-091216

[shasta]

Of the zinc stocks i mentioned, only HRR seems set to benefit within the near term, the others probably too far back in there development if that article is correct

[macduffy]

Of the zinc stocks i mentioned, only HRR seems set to benefit within the near term, the others probably too far back in there development if that article is correct

Yes, it seems so. I should have bought those S32's six months ago!

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=macduffy;647781]Yes, it seems so. I should have bought those S32's six months ago![/QUO S32

Yes another one that got away sub $1 ...what an arse............

[webllinks]

Check out RVR (Red River Resources), less than 6 months away from production, cashed up, no debt. Owns ex-Kagara assets.

[Joshuatree]

Bought into RVR recently.
Zinc op in aus with gold silver copper and lead credits
About to start up mill ops
Fully funded no debt
LOM costs US 18c ib.
mkt cap re$118 mill + any oppies DYOR

Company Presentation - Diggers and Dealers Mining Forum (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/3594069/)
Thalanga Zinc Project - Restart Update (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/3615600/)

Concentrate Production Commences at Thalanga (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/3676239/)

[Joshuatree]

Thalanga Fully Ramped-Up & Exceeding Planned Throughput (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/3713022/)

S/P responding accordingly:t_up:

[airedale]

Czl consolidated zinc have reported striking gold.