Aax - Ausceno Limited

[shasta]

Just for you AA :D - AAX AUSCENO LIMITED

Company Website: http://www.ausenco.com/

ASB Sec Valuation $A12.20, (52 week high $16.90, Low $3.48)

Shares on Issue: ~91,500,000

Current Share Price: $4.41

Market Cap: $403,515,000

FY08 - EPS 72.3c, P/E 4.8, DIV 43.8c, YIELD 12.6%
FY09 - EPS 87.3c, P/E 4.0, DIV 51.0c, YIELD 14.7%

Cash on hand: (30/6/08) - $38.1m

Net Debt: $14.5m (Debt Gearing Ratio - 8.4%)

Company speel ;)

Ausenco Limited (ASX:AAX (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/CompanyInfoSearchResults.jsp?searchBy=asxCode&allinfo=on&asxCode=AAX&companyName=&principalActivity=&industryGroup=NO)) is an award winning provider of innovative and high quality engineering and project management services to the global resource industry. From studies through to full project execution, operations and maintenance and beyond, Ausenco’s range of services cover all aspects of project development.

Currently, the Ausenco group is comprised of five business entities operating under a common corporate structure.



Ausenco Minerals (http://www.ausenco.com/page/Our_Business/Our_Companies/Ausenco_Minerals/) specialises in the engineering, procurement, construction management, project management, commissioning and operation of mineral processing plants covering a wide variety of commodities.
Ascentis Operations (Ascentis (http://www.ausenco.com/page/Our_Business/Our_Companies/Ascentis/)) provides contract services in the areas of plant operations, maintenance and a range of specialist services such as operator training, risk management and recruitment.
Pipeline Systems Incorporated (PSI (http://www.ausenco.com/page/Our_Business/Our_Companies/PSI/)) specialises in the engineering and design of state-of-the-art, long distance slurry pipeline systems.
Sandwell (http://www.ausenco.com/page/Our_Business/Our_Companies/Sandwell_Engineering/), specialises in engineering of ports and bulk materials handling systems, energy and industrial process sectors for the mining and oil and gas industries.
Vector (http://www.ausenco.com/page/Our_Business/Our_Companies/Vector_Engineering/) is a leader in the provision of geotechnical, civil, environmental and water resource services with specific capabilities in the solid waste, energy and oil and gas sectors.
Through this combination of services, Ausenco is able to offer complete end-to-end solutions to its broad global client base, which ranges from leading multinationals to mid-level and junior resource companies. Ausenco has a proven track record for innovative process design. Using the latest technology and innovation to improve processes and performance, Ausenco aims to achieve maximum results for clients in every project it undertakes.

Ausenco prides itself on the talented pool of specialist personnel that comprise its global workforce. The industry’s leading professionals are attracted by the diversity and scale of activities currently being undertaken by the group. A unique set of skills and experience enable Ausenco to apply its expertise to a broad cross-section of industries.

Recent Presentation:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20081028/pdf/31d60z4k15r812.pdf

AAX - 2008 Half Year Report:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080820/pdf/31bsffdbknsncr.pdf

Note, Ausceno did the work on PNA"s Phu Kham Copper/Gold project in Lao's, & are working on EQN's large Copper Project in Zambia

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?s=aax&pi=Stock&ct=3&tf=D3&ovs=&si=Code not supplied&tima1=10&tima2=30&bi=10&bima=30&comt=index&ds=aax&dovs=0&val=1&stmp=20081030182334892

Some of these figures will have been superceded by actual results, please DYOR!

[shasta]

Totally crazy Sell off Aye!
From a high of $15.76 and down to a low of $3.60 in a little over 2 months,
Crazy Stuff! very undervalued.

AA

GCL is of the same fate, as AAX, SRL, PNA...etc etc

Fundamentally nothing wrong with them!

AA - Keep an eye on the OEL/NDO charts ;)

[shasta]

Thanx will do...

Check out PLA, Technically same chart as AAX.:)

AA

If you were quick i had PLA on my watchlist, very impressive jump today huh?

[shasta]

Yep PLA on the same reversal scan as AAX , Big Volume , ADX 66. I usually get two or three good setups a day so won't go chasing them unless they pullback hard tomorrow on low volume.

AA

AAX - Ann re Coal project

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AAX&E=ASX&N=205455

[shasta]

AAX - Ann re Coal project

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AAX&E=ASX&N=205455


AAX - Lumwana Copper Plant handed over (to EQN)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AAX&E=ASX&N=205777

[shasta]

AAX - Lumwana Copper Plant handed over (to EQN)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AAX&E=ASX&N=205777

AAX - Re OZL deferral of projects

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AAX&E=ASX&N=205972

[bermuda]

AAX - Re OZL deferral of projects

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AAX&E=ASX&N=205972

HI Shasta,
Can you or anyone else tell me whether the dividend is sustainable? This looks pretty good to me notwithstanding OZL reining in some expediture.

[shasta]

HI Shasta,
Can you or anyone else tell me whether the dividend is sustainable? This looks pretty good to me notwithstanding OZL reining in some expediture.

I'll give you the breakdown of the last few years, see 1st post also

AAX traditionally do better in the 2nd half of the year, & seems to have a rough 60% payout ratio, so i think it is sustainable.

Earnings Per Share

2006 1H 6.0 2H 11.0 = Total 17.0
2007 1H 21.2 2H 27.6 = Total 48.8
2008 1H 30.0 2H 43.2c* = Total 30.0 (6 months),

Dividends Per Share

2006 1H 2.5c 2H 7.5c - Total 10.0c (58.8% payout ratio)
2007 1H 13.0c 2H 17.2c = Total 30.2c (61.8% payout ratio)
2008 1H 18.2c 2H 25.6c* = Total 18.2c (6 months)

http://www.ausenco.com/page/Ausenco_In_Focus/Ausenco_Delivers_Record_Half_Year__Results/

* Required result to meet forecast figures as per start of thread post.

[bermuda]

I'll give you the breakdown of the last few years, see 1st post also

AAX traditionally do better in the 2nd half of the year, & seems to have a rough 60% payout ratio, so i think it is sustainable.

Earnings Per Share

2006 1H 6.0 2H 11.0 = Total 17.0
2007 1H 21.2 2H 27.6 = Total 48.8
2008 1H 30.0 2H 43.2c* = Total 30.0 (6 months),

Dividends Per Share

2006 1H 2.5c 2H 7.5c - Total 10.0c (58.8% payout ratio)
2007 1H 13.0c 2H 17.2c = Total 30.2c (61.8% payout ratio)
2008 1H 18.2c 2H 25.6c* = Total 18.2c (6 months)

http://www.ausenco.com/page/Ausenco_In_Focus/Ausenco_Delivers_Record_Half_Year__Results/

* Required result to meet forecast figures as per start of thread post.

Thanks for that. It seems too good to be true. A great stock that has been truly knocked down and an increasing dividend yield not only from earnings but from the result of sp depreciation.

I had a read of the OZL thread. Not good at all. But it wont make that much difference to AAX...perhaps emotionally.

[mark100]

Today I attended an 'Australia Day' conference in London where several Australian mining companies presented their story.

The companies consisted of:
Western Areas
Discovery Metals
Exco Resources
Troy Resources
Heemskirk Consolidated
Moly Mines
Marengo Mining
Wolf Minerals
Sundance Resources
Silver Lake Resources
Indphil Resources
Mincor Resources

While most had a good story, the main point I took away from the day is that very few now know what the development timetable will be for their projects. In some cases the project is uneconomic at current commodity prices and in others their is a complete lack if funding options available.

The only 3 I thought could handle the current situation was Mincor (because it is still cash flow positive and has good cash backing), Western Areas (because of its very high grades and low costs) and Troy (because it is already producing and has cash that equals the market cap).

So my point is that companies like AAX are going to find many of the projects they have been working on will get pulled and not many new projects will start in the short-merdium term. The only thing that will fix this is a bounce in commodity prices and/or a resumption in normal bank lending.

[shasta]

Today I attended an 'Australia Day' conference in London where several Australian mining companies presented their story.

The companies consisted of:
Western Areas
Discovery Metals
Exco Resources
Troy Resources
Heemskirk Consolidated
Moly Mines
Marengo Mining
Wolf Minerals
Sundance Resources
Silver Lake Resources
Indphil Resources
Mincor Resources

While most had a good story, the main point I took away from the day is that very few now know what the development timetable will be for their projects. In some cases the project is uneconomic at current commodity prices and in others their is a complete lack if funding options available.

The only 3 I thought could handle the current situation was Mincor (because it is still cash flow positive and has good cash backing), Western Areas (because of its very high grades and low costs) and Troy (because it is already producing and has cash that equals the market cap).

So my point is that companies like AAX are going to find many of the projects they have been working on will get pulled and not many new projects will start in the short-merdium term. The only thing that will fix this is a bounce in commodity prices and/or a resumption in normal bank lending.

I don't wish to contradict your post, as i tend to agree with it, but...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BRM&E=ASX&N=432066

AAX still gaining more work!

[shasta]

I don't wish to contradict your post, as i tend to agree with it, but...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BRM&E=ASX&N=432066

AAX still gaining more work!

AAX - More work, what slow down they say...:D

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AAX&E=ASX&N=206414

[shasta]

Thanks for that. It seems too good to be true. A great stock that has been truly knocked down and an increasing dividend yield not only from earnings but from the result of sp depreciation.

I had a read of the OZL thread. Not good at all. But it wont make that much difference to AAX...perhaps emotionally.

Bermuda

If you're still keen on AAX, here's an updated chart :)

To me it looks as if it's retested it's previous support level & may bounce as the bollinger bands are tightning up.

A close of $2.30 (?) or better, may show a break out?

Can someone else with better charting software please confirm.

TIA :cool:

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=AAX&exchange=ASX&period=6M&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=LINE&compi=&ma1=10&ma2=90&bb=Y&ind=RSI&ra=2

[shasta]

AAX up another 20c today to close $2.68 (up over 20% in 2009)

Well & truly broken out!

[shasta]

AAX up another 20c today to close $2.68 (up over 20% in 2009)

Well & truly broken out!

AAX - Rio Tinto Corumba Project :(

Earnings downgrade 6% FY09, & 7% FY10, but still with plemty on the go

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AAX&E=ASX&N=207019

AAX's SP has dropped off the last couple of days on relatively light turnover.

I believe they will still be earning min 35cps in the 2nd half, & will pay out a dividend of at least 20c.

I've run the numbers thru a few mining service companies & AAX is still the "cheapest" that i have come across.

[shasta]

AAX - Rio Tinto Corumba Project :(

Earnings downgrade 6% FY09, & 7% FY10, but still with plemty on the go

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AAX&E=ASX&N=207019

AAX's SP has dropped off the last couple of days on relatively light turnover.

I believe they will still be earning min 35cps in the 2nd half, & will pay out a dividend of at least 20c.

I've run the numbers thru a few mining service companies & AAX is still the "cheapest" that i have come across.

Fundamentally there's alot to like about AAX, more work coming in...:cool:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AAX&E=ASX&N=207205

Still very much undervalued & i'm quite confident they will make previous guidance within +/- 5% for FY09.

That means at least a 20 - 25c divvie for the 6mth period to 31 Dec.

[brettdale]

Everything seems to be undervalue at the moment.

[shasta]

Everything seems to be undervalue at the moment.

True, but in this market you must be selective.

If you go back & see the very first post & then Bermuda's question (& answer), you will get the "feel" for AAX.

I've looked at quite a few of AAX's peers & rate it the best.

Just my opinion as a fundie mind you :rolleyes:

[shasta]

True, but in this market you must be selective.

If you go back & see the very first post & then Bermuda's question (& answer), you will get the "feel" for AAX.

I've looked at quite a few of AAX's peers & rate it the best.

Just my opinion as a fundie mind you :rolleyes:

AAX - Full Year results presentation :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AAX&E=ASX&N=208050

Seems like the fall in SP was justified, didnt meet earlier targets, but still pretty good considering :cool:

[dragonz]

Revenue up 70%
Profit after tax up 35%
eps up 24.3%
EBITDA up 60.1%

HOWEVER..... 30% of future contracts cancelled and a large dept due to its recent acquisitions :eek:

Im in at these prices and looking at a good bounce from its lows as I speak. Good short trade or longer term hold IMO

[dragonz]

Lizard or Shasta. It would be greatly appreciated if you could cast your fundie eyes over the financials and give us your much respected opinions.


The share price has been hit hard with the future earnings downgrade (due to ozl and Rio Trinto shelving projects)but I think the fall has been well overdone and presents a buying opportunity.

The positives are that AAX has about US$20 billion of tenders curantly in study stage with tenders for the Newport expansion and another 3 billion contract in Morocco.

This means that over the next coming months we could see a series of positive news which could immediately impact the shareprice.

Any improvement in comodity prices will impact favourably with AAX as many projects that have been delayed or shelved will come back online. The 1st of these may be Martabe gold

6 brokers have moved to a buy for this stock with a buy of $2.45 recommended.

The negatives are that AAX relys on some sort of Resourse recovery over the next 2-3 years as part of its growth strategy. However with 60-65% of its revenue mostly recurring and no major debt due till 2011 the company is in pretty good shape.



In my humble opinion I think that this has a potential of a recovery of shareprice @ 30 - 50% in the short term and 100% by years end.



However this is totaly relient on Management living up to thier reputation.

Just as a side note I see that AAX's founding director, Bob Thorpe, has just been taken on by Australian Solomons Gold Limited (TX;SGA)as a project Manager. Could be one to watch ;)

[shasta]

Lizard or Shasta. It would be greatly appreciated if you could cast your fundie eyes over the financials and give us your much respected opinions.


The share price has been hit hard with the future earnings downgrade (due to ozl and Rio Trinto shelving projects)but I think the fall has been well overdone and presents a buying opportunity.

The positives are that AAX has about US$20 billion of tenders curantly in study stage with tenders for the Newport expansion and another 3 billion contract in Morocco.

This means that over the next coming months we could see a series of positive news which could immediately impact the shareprice.

Any improvement in comodity prices will impact favourably with AAX as many projects that have been delayed or shelved will come back online. The 1st of these may be Martabe gold

6 brokers have moved to a buy for this stock with a buy of $2.45 recommended.

The negatives are that AAX relys on some sort of Resourse recovery over the next 2-3 years as part of its growth strategy. However with 60-65% of its revenue mostly recurring and no major debt due till 2011 the company is in pretty good shape.



In my humble opinion I think that this has a potential of a recovery of shareprice @ 30 - 50% in the short term and 100% by years end.



However this is totaly relient on Management living up to thier reputation.

Just as a side note I see that AAX's founding director, Bob Thorpe, has just been taken on by Australian Solomons Gold Limited (TX;SGA)as a project Manager. Could be one to watch ;)

You seem to have summed it up all very nicely yourself!

AAX disappointed the market with the future earnings downgrade (both FY09 & FY10 were forecast < 10% drops!), & unfairly dropped the SP back alot further, back under $2.

What the market is saying is that there is less certainty in AAX converting there tenders/scoping studies etc into further work. This remains an unknown, & you may be right, any positive news will surely be factored back into future earnings...:rolleyes:

If you look at the likes of LEI, they show little signs of slowing down, im guessing as there is a lag between a slow down, & completion of projects.

I would expect AAX to down grade there profit forecasts again (maybe in the March quarter, due late April), meaning reduced EPS & dividends ahead.

The half year a/c's will be due out late July/Aug, & that should provide a better picture as to whether or not AAX are inkeeping with previous full year forecasts.

I think the resource recovery may come a bit quicker than many think, China/India won't stop growing & building, & you can see the Chinese are looking at buying quality assets "on the cheap" at the moment.

Your SP appreciation figures, will require AAX to exceed it's forecast profit figures FY09, & will need some very good news to bump up the FY10 earnings, but are achieveable i guess.

I'm watching AAX, & sub $2 looks cheap, but the chart isn't the best.

[dragonz]

Thanks Shasta

The chart looks terrible but I have an exit strategy at $1.80. Normally dont hold for more then a few days in this market.

Early last year I dumped everything in my portfolio (at a loss) and completely re-thought my investment strategy after reading a post by Phaedrus.


Phaedrus probaly saved me $15,000 when I look back and see what those stocks are worth now.

So far this year I've regathered my losses but have done 10x the extra trades.

I wonder how many other investers have gone from weekly traders to daily traders?

[Huang Chung]

I know I'm trading more than ever....it's been a good move to :).

[mark100]

Today I attended an 'Australia Day' conference in London where several Australian mining companies presented their story.

The companies consisted of:
Western Areas
Discovery Metals
Exco Resources
Troy Resources
Heemskirk Consolidated
Moly Mines
Marengo Mining
Wolf Minerals
Sundance Resources
Silver Lake Resources
Indphil Resources
Mincor Resources

While most had a good story, the main point I took away from the day is that very few now know what the development timetable will be for their projects. In some cases the project is uneconomic at current commodity prices and in others their is a complete lack if funding options available.

The only 3 I thought could handle the current situation was Mincor (because it is still cash flow positive and has good cash backing), Western Areas (because of its very high grades and low costs) and Troy (because it is already producing and has cash that equals the market cap).

So my point is that companies like AAX are going to find many of the projects they have been working on will get pulled and not many new projects will start in the short-merdium term. The only thing that will fix this is a bounce in commodity prices and/or a resumption in normal bank lending.

As I pointed out 3 months ago, a lot of AAX's potential projects won't go ahead

[Huang Chung]

A friend of mine works for one of AAXs direct competitors. Significant layoffs over the past 3 months.

A dangerous area at the moment. Probably more certainty in something like Bradken or Austin Engineering, where at least they are more in the 'mining consumables' space, rather than involvemnent in major capital expansions.

[mark100]

A friend of mine works for one of AAXs direct competitors. Significant layoffs over the past 3 months.

A dangerous area at the moment. Probably more certainty in something like Bradken or Austin Engineering, where at least they are more in the 'mining consumables' space, rather than involvemnent in major capital expansions.

In a previous life I was an Engineer on the consulting side. Some friends who work for GHD have informed me that 10% of the Brisbane workforce were laid off last month. That amounts to around 100 workers. Also layoffs are occuring in the Melbourne office. This is the sort of company that was advertising for Engineers continually from around 1996 up until Dec 2008. Now in the space of 2 months they have gone from hiring to sacking.

[dragonz]

A friend of mine works for one of AAXs direct competitors. Significant layoffs over the past 3 months.

A dangerous area at the moment. Probably more certainty in something like Bradken or Austin Engineering, where at least they are more in the 'mining consumables' space, rather than involvemnent in major capital expansions.

Hi Huang Chung

AAX specialises across various areas. These include procurement, decommissioning and maintenance, as well as feasibility and construction services . Recent acquisitions added slurry pipe transport systems, ports and bulk material handling, and geotechnical engineering segments to the mix.

With 60-65% of income "recurring income" would suggest that they no longer rely soley on major capital expansions to survive.

Its the 66.5 million debt thats probaly my biggest concern however this doesnt mature until 2011 which gives plenty of time to bail should things turn to custard.

13.5 cent divie in a couple of weeks so as long as the shareprice stays above $2 I'll be happy.

[dragonz]

Mining's experts ride the downturn
Jamie Freed
March 9, 2009

Ausenco thriving
The engineering group Ausenco usually comes into the mining mix at the project development stage. It does the engineering, procurement and construction management services for projects, which gives it a leading role in the development of new mines around the world.

Unfortunately, some of Ausenco's customers, such as OZ Minerals and Rio have, run into financial difficulties as of late and have had to defer projects like the Martabe goldmine in Indonesia and an expansion of the Corumba iron ore mine in Brazil.

But now that Vale has bought Corumba from Rio, it could decide to reactivate the expansion. And OZ is supposedly close to selling Martabe to a syndicate led by the former Oxiana boss Owen Hegarty for $200 million, although the deal seems to be taking longer than expected amid speculation of financing difficulties. If Martabe is sold, Ausenco will be in the box seat to restart work on the project, although it is possible its fee may be renegotiated in light of the downturn.

Despite the downturn, Ausenco has recently gained contracts, such as Brockman Resources's Marillana pre-feasibility study in the Pilbara and Vale's Ellensfield coal study in Queensland. It already has a relationship with OZ's suitor, China Minmetals, based on work in Peru.

Source: The Sydney Morning Herald

[dragonz]

I dont feel so bad about selling down my OZL (to buy AAX) holding now and sleep much better. :D

Dec - $2.25 to 2.70 = 20% rise

jan - 2.05 to 2.70 = 22% rise

Feb - 2.05 to 2.55 = 19% 24% rise

March - 1.88 to ? = 16% rise so far with 6% divie yield due 25/3 :D

[dragonz]

In my humble opinion I think that this has a potential of a recovery of shareprice @ 30 - 50% in the short term and 100% by years end.



;)

AXX has reached my target of 50% in the short term. Lets see if it can reach 100% by years end.

[shasta]

AXX has reached my target of 50% in the short term. Lets see if it can reach 100% by years end.

AAX still going strong, up another 17c to $2.77...

You still in dragonz?

[dragonz]

Hi Shasta

No I've only got limited capital so shifted my funds to VBA. Turned out to be a better move as sold out at end of trading today but might catch again on the next cycle.

I still think AAX has a way to go however.

I'm watching TEN.NZX and ETC.ASX very closely at the moment.

Did you end up buying AAX?

[shasta]

Hi Shasta

No I've only got limited capital so shifted my funds to VBA. Turned out to be a better move as sold out at end of trading today but might catch again on the next cycle.

I still think AAX has a way to go however.

I'm watching TEN.NZX and ETC.ASX very closely at the moment.

Did you end up buying AAX?

Nope, like just about everything else on my watchlist, it took off before i was prepared to re-enter the market...

If you like TEN Dragonz, have a look at RBC, beaten down but still with a few cross shareholdings & the majority ownership of TEN.

Although it has been in "play" for a few years now!

[AMR]

AAX broke out of a trading range today and above previous resistance. A pretty bullish sign generally, although having said that breakout trading has a high failure rate in a bear market.

I might buy a very small amount now.

[shasta]

AAX - UBS Emerging Companies Conference - Presentation

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AAX&E=ASX&N=209103

Market likes it up 44c to $3.31...

Wasn't too long ago AAX was sub $2, a classic example of a target of mine running hard.

Run too hard for me, but i'm opening up the cheque book again...

[AMR]

Now I'm pissed. Because I'm such a workaholic, I completely forgot about putting in this trade the next morning after my research.

Ah well, buy on the next oversold period.

[shasta]

Now I'm pissed. Because I'm such a workaholic, I completely forgot about putting in this trade the next morning after my research.

Ah well, buy on the next oversold period.

Same here, i'm never home before the ASX closes these days...

I've watched target after target run, but i refuse to chase them...

There's always another wave to ride huh :rolleyes:

[shasta]

shasta,
you are always home beFore the asx closes...
I have meet you...
:cool:
.^sc

Not presently, im working far too many hours on project work :mad:

Would be nice to place on order "live"...

[soulman]

Wow, this baby is moving and the sucker that sold on Tuesday (that would be me) is cursing at the computer right now.

AMR and Shasta, I assume you 2 are dissapointed as well. Dragonz, you must be laughing all the way to the bank. AAX was essentially a very good investment at about $2 with substantial margin of error (in hinsight) and now it can run higher with a $5 target.

[shasta]

Wow, this baby is moving and the sucker that sold on Tuesday (that would be me) is cursing at the computer right now.

AMR and Shasta, I assume you 2 are dissapointed as well. Dragonz, you must be laughing all the way to the bank. AAX was essentially a very good investment at about $2 with substantial margin of error (in hinsight) and now it can run higher with a $5 target.

Very disappointed...

Just like i am with AOE under $2 :(

NHC at $3.30 :(

PNA at under 15c :(

SRL at under $1 :(

ALS at $1 (just a week ago & now $2.32!)

I should really go with my hunches...

[dragonz]

Wow, this baby is moving and the sucker that sold on Tuesday (that would be me) is cursing at the computer right now.

AMR and Shasta, I assume you 2 are dissapointed as well. Dragonz, you must be laughing all the way to the bank. AAX was essentially a very good investment at about $2 with substantial margin of error (in hinsight) and now it can run higher with a $5 target.

I switched the funds to VBA when they got down to 15 cents. Should have stayed with AAX and saved the brokage and would have been a couple % better of. Keep a close eye on announcements for this one. As soon as we have word on renewed contracts this could double again. Negative news will have the oposite affect as the shorters love these types of stocks.

Since selling out of VBA I've had 2 trades that have amounted to nothing (GPG and FPA). And one outstanding FML - which I hope does a AAX as this has huge upside and minimal risk in my opinion.

Been a great year so far.

Shasta - a smart fella like you could make a killing. Go with your hunches. But more importantly keep sharing them first :D

[AMR]

AA I thought you did things differently - that looks like my type of trading! (See trades - make the call, pg 1):D:D:D

IMO the risk is too great now, R:R not worth it anymore. We need to see a higher low and that will be a nice, high probability low risk trade.

[shasta]

I switched the funds to VBA when they got down to 15 cents. Should have stayed with AAX and saved the brokage and would have been a couple % better of. Keep a close eye on announcements for this one. As soon as we have word on renewed contracts this could double again. Negative news will have the oposite affect as the shorters love these types of stocks.

Since selling out of VBA I've had 2 trades that have amounted to nothing (GPG and FPA). And one outstanding FML - which I hope does a AAX as this has huge upside and minimal risk in my opinion.

Been a great year so far.

Shasta - a smart fella like you could make a killing. Go with your hunches. But more importantly keep sharing them first :D

Some of my "hunches" have resulted in ugly train wrecks too...:D

[shasta]

Buy Lemons by mistake? , make Lemonade Vodka :D you will feel much better even on a train wreck.... err ... until the morning.

AA

lol, i might start forex trading in the wee hours if i had too much vodka :o

[AMR]

This could be the pullback we are waiting for...what amazing volatility though. It's become a daytraders plaything now.

[AMR]

What do people make of the capital raising SPP plan?

Well supported at this price which makes me keen on it, good institutional takeup as well.

[shasta]

What do people make of the capital raising SPP plan?

Well supported at this price which makes me keen on it, good institutional takeup as well.

Raising the $40.5m has dropped there gearing from a modest 26.8% down to a very manageable & impressive 10.9% (thus allowing plenty of headroom going forward)

The SPP @ $3.20 will further reduce this (to under 10%)

The discount wasn't too bad & those getting in at $3.20, will like what the market thinks (currently up 23c to $3.90).

AMR - this is a very positive move for AAX.

Am keeping an eye on it

[AMR]

Based on what it says in the powerpoint presentation, I think we still have some time!

[shasta]

Based on what it says in the powerpoint presentation, I think we still have some time!

AAX reminds me of SRL a while back, with quite a big range in SP, ie +/- 20% daily swings.

Sure the SP will slide back towards the SPP price, as is normal, but this could provide an excellent opportunity to enter

[shasta]

I switched the funds to VBA when they got down to 15 cents. Should have stayed with AAX and saved the brokage and would have been a couple % better of. Keep a close eye on announcements for this one. As soon as we have word on renewed contracts this could double again. Negative news will have the oposite affect as the shorters love these types of stocks.

Since selling out of VBA I've had 2 trades that have amounted to nothing (GPG and FPA). And one outstanding FML - which I hope does a AAX as this has huge upside and minimal risk in my opinion.

Been a great year so far.

Shasta - a smart fella like you could make a killing. Go with your hunches. But more importantly keep sharing them first :D

AAX currently up 30c to $4.60 :eek:

You still holding from $2 ish

AAX finally back over the SP level when i started the thread.

Strange to think it dropped below $2, but surged ever since.

I live & learn...again :o

[dragonz]

AAX currently up 30c to $4.60 :eek:

You still holding from $2 ish

AAX finally back over the SP level when i started the thread.

Strange to think it dropped below $2, but surged ever since.

I live & learn...again :o

No I'm not holding shasta. I've been busy generating income for my broker :eek:.

I havnt looked at the fundamentals lately but always keep 1/2 an eye for any unjustified pullbacks. This was a perfect example of the shorters pushing the share price below $2 then scrambling to cover thier positions once the upward momentum got going.

[shasta]

No I'm not holding shasta. I've been busy generating income for my broker :eek:.

I havnt looked at the fundamentals lately but always keep 1/2 an eye for any unjustified pullbacks. This was a perfect example of the shorters pushing the share price below $2 then scrambling to cover thier positions once the upward momentum got going.

AAX - Acquires a PNG firm

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AAX&E=ASX&N=212694

Thought an ann was on the cards, nice leak earlier :rolleyes:

[dragonz]

AAX - Acquires a PNG firm

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AAX&E=ASX&N=212694

Thought an ann was on the cards, nice leak earlier :rolleyes:

Yes you are right, nice little leak re the financials. I didnt like the bit about "Financial results this year has been affected by delays in projects commencing." Another pullback on the cards perhaps :rolleyes:. Will be watching with interest.

[upside_umop]

Flirting with all time lows. Does anybody here watch this stock? I just noticed its recent fall from grace - 65% fall in around 6 weeks - and thought this could be an opportunity.

Obviously, theres a few factors going on here. Forecast loss, RSPT, general market down turn etc. Even so, there should be an opportunity somewhere.

I havent done all that much research fundamentally. Around 120 mill shares on issue...must have done a raising of around 30 mill shares since the $15 days.

No quarterly, but as per their financial statements 31/12/2009, they had $78 million cash, and around $63 million borrowings (some USD borrowings, so sensitive to exchange rates). They announced recently an extension on banking facilities with ANZ, so should be able to weather out the storm. Most of their revenue is derived offshore too, around 3/4 if I read correctly.

Is this loss a short term blip (because of above factors i mentioned), or more of a longer term trend? I dont know too much about these mining services companies, but I know a few do....with FGE etc. Corporate?

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1294/4677320395_be12f349b8_b.jpg

Down to about $1.90 today.

[soulman]

I can't help you much Upside but I can say they had a cap raising (SPP) during the end of the GFC @ about $3.10. So, those investors that have not cash in their chips for as much as $5+ are staring down the barrel. Potential for this stock to hit near $1 than back in the $3's.

[Corporate]

upside, I don't follow Aax at all, but I have just spent 5min reading a couple of recent announcements and flicked through the 2009 annual.

The forecast profit of 13m - 18m puts Aax on a PE of between 18 and 13. This is high in the current market.

They carry significant debt.

Also have a look at the cash flow statement. It looks to me like they will have to write off a bunch of that $170m goodwill. Management has already indicated that this might be a possibility.

Personally I would wait and see what happens with the markets. I also wouldn't be surprised if the share price hits $1 before it heads back to $3. The market won't like a big goodwill write off.

[drillfix]

Been a while since anybody posted on Ausenco, so just thought I would sound off by saying I stumbled on a chart of AAX

Seems it may go for a little run since it has been smashed down from $2.45 to $1.91

Daily MACD seems set for an up move yet I would not count on that alone, but RSI just below 40 any upward move above that would be positive and any DMI turning towards crossing would be extremely positive. The 60 minute chart also looks good and starting to ride upward above the 13ema.

Anyway, just a quick reference to that and currently the prices is sitting at $2.20

As always time will tell and caution needed in these markets at present, imo.

Cheers~!



dis: not holding

[shasta]

AAX -RBS Morgans Presentation

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AAX&E=ASX&N=235230

Certainly have turned things around, back into profitability & paying a modest divided, still winning new contracts & sizeable book order

Market liked it AAX closed up 10c to $2.57

Seems coal & iron ore are the new growth drivers in South America, as they have reduced exposure to precious metals

[Joshuatree]

Down re 30% today on late downgrade. Buying op maybe.