Indophil Resources - IRN

[Dr_Who]

This is an interesting little company.

They have one of the largest Copper mines in SE Asia situated in the phillipines. In the last year there has been 2/3 attempts at a hostile T/O on IRN. The valuation is around $1.50.

Two big players are still at it to T/O IRN and/or its largest resource holding - Tampakan. The final showdown will be between Alsons Group and Xstrata. The ball is in the shareholders court to approve a $1.28cps sale of IRN's shareholding in Tampakan.

If it is successful, it may distribute $1.28 cps back to shareholder.

Pls DYO research before investing.

Disclosure: recent bought shares in IRN.

[airedale]

Hi Doc, hostile , is how the locals feel to IRN. Great prospect but lots of sovereign risk. The big guys like Xstrata are certainly interested.

[Dr_Who]

Hi Doc, hostile , is how the locals feel to IRN. Great prospect but lots of sovereign risk. The big guys like Xstrata are certainly interested.

Interesting to see one of the wealthiest Phillipino family (Alsons Group) is having a go at T/O on IRN at $1.28. Even the phillipinos know the huge potential value of Tampakan which is situated in their backyard.

I made abit of money trading LST when IRN tried a hostile T/O of LST and it backfired on them triggering a hostile T/O back on IRN.. all very complicated!!! The company with the deepest pockets and largest balls will win at the end.

[JBmurc]

mmmmmmmm 29.5 c SP for IRN wasn't long ago LST sold their share of IRN to Xstrata for 1.17 per share

IRN has a 34.23% interest in the Tampakan project with the right to acquire an additional 3.27%. The current global resource is 12.8mt of contained Cu and 15.2moz of Au making it one of the worlds largest undeveloped copper resources. Xstrata hold the remaining 62.5% interest.

Might have to pick-up some today sub 30c

[Dr_Who]

You are dead onto it JB.

IRN has cash of around 20 cps sitting in the account which equates to $80m of cash! I am a shareholder and continue to accumulate stock on price weakness.

On current price of 30 cents the market is saying that the 34.24% of Tampakan with 12.8mt of contained Cu and 15.2moz of Au is only worth less than $40 m. Gold is over USD800 per ounce!!!

It is not only the largest Cu/Au mine in SE Asia, but also one of the cheapest cost to mine. This company will be taken out, just dont know the timing. Till then I am a buyer.


disc: Shareholder

[JBmurc]

MANILA, Dec 22 (Reuters) - A worker at the Tampakan copper and gold exploration site in the southern Philippines was killed and two others wounded when a lone gunman fired on their vehicle, local police and mine owner Xstrata (LSE: XTA.L - news) said on Monday.
The lode is one of Southeast Asia's richest untapped deposits, with an estimated 12.8 million tonnes of copper and 15.2 million ounces of gold. It is 62.5 percent owned by Swiss-based mining giant Xstrata.

The workers were returning to the company's supply base late on Sunday when they were fired upon, said Felizardo Serapio, police chief in South Cotabato province, adding that Maoist-led New People's Army (NPA) rebels could be behind the attack.

'The communist rebels are known to be operating in the area and they have staged attacks against the company in the past,' Serapio told reporters.

An army spokesman, Major Randolph Cabangbang, said the attack could have been motivated by a personal grudge.

Police were investigating, Xstrata said in a statement released by its Philippine-based affiliate Sagitarius Mines Inc.

Sagitarius declined to make any further immediate comment.

After a number of attacks this year allegedly by the NPA, the Philippines offered to train private security guards protecting mines as part of efforts to attract more foreign investment in the sector.

Since the start of the year, four major mine sites in the country, including Tampakan, have been attacked.

An armed gang attacked and set fire to a mine exploration rig at the Tampakan site in July. Discovered in 1991, development of the site has not progressed far beyond the drawing boards.

On Sunday, local nickel ore company SR Metals Mining Corp. was attacked by about 60 NPA rebels in another part of Mindanao island.

The rebels burned heavy equipment and seized seven assault rifles from private security guards protecting the site.

Nestor Fajurra, a police spokesman, said the NPA rebels also destroyed a nearly mobile cell site and ransacked a local police station, taking radio equipment.

'No one was hurt but millions of pesos of property went up in smoke,' Fajurra said, adding the rebels were also targeting the country's economy by attacking mines, plantations and mobile phone companies.

(Reporting by Manuel Mogato in Manila and James Regan in Sydney

[Dr_Who]

All they have to do is put a WANTED REWARD of $100k per head for those rebels and it will be all solved within a week.

[macduffy]

All they have to do is put a WANTED REWARD of $100k per head for those rebels and it will be all solved within a week.

I don't think so, doc.
The "Mindinao rebel " situation has been festering for a long time -it was a problem in 1982 when I made my first visit to the Philippines and had been ongoing for some time then.
IRN is an interesting stock nonetheless and warrants attention by those prepared to take on extra country risk on top of the usual risks associated with mining companies.

Disc: Not yet holding.

[JBmurc]

dr who IRN L

You guys can shout me crayfish dinner end of this year.
__________________

If IRN get back to 1.20+ share I'll send you a crayfish for ya dinner

[Dr_Who]

dr who IRN L

You guys can shout me crayfish dinner end of this year.
__________________

If IRN get back to 1.20+ share I'll send you a crayfish for ya dinner

Here is hoping.

[JBmurc]

Out of the near Doz companies I follow IRN by far has the best looking Depth with some very large bids in place (one-2mill buy at 26c) compared to it's very weak sellers(only 250k odd ) IRN could really run back above the 50c resistance if some decent buying volume would first break the current trading trend round 30c

Currently buying more come on sellers .

[Dr_Who]

There was a very large seller before that pushed the price down. I am not sure if the seller is still around to sell, hence there is a buyer order of 2 million shares waiting at 26 cents. If the seller is gone than the sp could bounce, but if he is still around it could go to 26 cents and I will be waiting to buy more.

This is a buy and hold stock for me, I am not selling unless there is a T/O bid at over $1.20.

[JBmurc]

A valuation of 2% would see A$1.86 assigned to each IRN share on the basis
of US$3.00 per pound of copper and US$700 per ounce of gold contained in
IRN’s share of the Tampakan resource.

with 21cps in cash IRN have only 3c-4c value to there worldclass mine

I just can't find a cheaper share atm what to sell to buy more IRN mmmmmmm

[Corporate]

A valuation of 2% would see A$1.86 assigned to each IRN share on the basis
of US$3.00 per pound of copper and US$700 per ounce of gold contained in
IRN’s share of the Tampakan resource.

with 21cps in cash IRN have only 3c-4c value to there worldclass mine

I just can't find a cheaper share atm what to sell to buy more IRN mmmmmmm

JB this is the first i've come across IRN. What do they plan to do with this mine in the future? I assume it is not producing nor has development begun?

[JBmurc]

JB this is the first i've come across IRN. What do they plan to do with this mine in the future? I assume it is not producing nor has development begun?

http://www.indophil.com

have alook see want you think I'm busy trying to buy more atm

[Dr_Who]

JB this is the first i've come across IRN. What do they plan to do with this mine in the future? I assume it is not producing nor has development begun?

IT will get taken out before they even start production.

I am still waiting to accummulate more stock.

[marknz88]

Any ideas why this just keeps going lower?

Surely it must be getting very close to cash backing, thus the value of there 33% share of tampakan is almost non existent :confused:

Was looking at getting a small parcel in the case of a take over, but now I think ill just hold off and see where the price ends up.

[Dr_Who]

I think a large seller is pushing down the sp.

I have no idea where the sp will be in the short term. Anything below 20 cents is worth putting some away. Cash is around 20 cents in the bank. This share reminds me abit of PPP, but with substantial bigger upside if there is a T/O offer.

[AMR]

Have they hedged anything? It seems the price has gone the opposite way of gold which is usually a bad sign. Others like NEM are doing much better.

[marknz88]

Ah seems to be UBS then after looking back through quarterlys and what people have been saying.

I do agree that the upside from here far outweighs the downside in the long run.

Will pick up a few very soon and just hold onto them bottom draw until the party is ready to get started again.

[Dr_Who]

I too are looking for it to bottom and I will pick up a decent amount for the long term portfolio. This is not a trading stock or you may have a heart attack.

disc: shareholder

[JBmurc]

well been away for a couple days didn't think I'd see these levels still didn't think it was going drop below 28c still like Dr who states IRN much like PPP has 80mill in the bank 33% with a right to increase to 37.5% in one of the largest untapped Copper gold reserves in the world currently IRN S/P values this at $0 you do the figures IRN gold share 5mill oz alone has a ground value of min 3.5 AUD billion at 700oz aud now add the copper + IRN's other prime tenament = stupidly undervalued stock that has no hedging.

Now who do you ask has a major share of the project......XSTRATA
Xstrata is now the fifth largest diversified metals and mining company in the world, with operations and projects in 18 countries and top five market positions in each of its major commodities.

[marknz88]

If Xstrata were to make another take over bid, from what I read on HC we would be looking at around a 1st of March onwards as they have to wait 6 months before after their initial offer?

This sound right to you guys?

Any thoughts also on if they will put in a much lower bid now that the share price has dropped to where it currently is and hope that shareholders take what seems like a good price in the current climate?

edit// after reading this, we may be waiting quite some time for a new offer :/

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awgmYeClLeiE&refer=home

[Dr_Who]

My guess is that Alson group and Co will make a bid for the Tampakan asset before Xstrata. I think the Alson group needs the final report before they can secure financing and backers support. The final report will give detailed analysis of the reserve and production costs.

I am just hoping the sp to come down more so that I can get set before any corporate activity announcement.

[JBmurc]

My guess is that Alson group and Co will make a bid for the Tampakan asset before Xstrata. I think the Alson group needs the final report before they can secure financing and backers support. The final report will give detailed analysis of the reserve and production costs.

I am just hoping the sp to come down more so that I can get set before any corporate activity announcement.

down more think your being greedy now Dr who we both know IRN are currently at or close to cash backing
IMHO we will get another bid for tampakan but sadly the price will be down abit on the last offer still should be at least 200% higher than the current S/P unless gold goes through $1000oz soon or copper increases alot then we will see more of a biding war develop between the bargin hunters and should see 1.30+

[shasta]

down more think your being greedy now Dr who we both know IRN are currently at or close to cash backing
IMHO we will get another bid for tampakan but sadly the price will be down abit on the last offer still should be at least 200% higher than the current S/P unless gold goes through $1000oz soon or copper increases alot then we will see more of a biding war develop between the bargin hunters and should see 1.30+

IRN - Quarterly Activities report

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=IRN&E=ASX&N=312961

Cash backing of 20c per share or $76.5m

[Dr_Who]

Very nice to see IRN cash burn rate is only around $2.5-3 million a year. :)

[Dr_Who]

Gold is at $940 and copper at $155 making IRN one of the cheapest miners listed. Production cost is only $60 for copper. Gold continues to be strong and Copper has bottomed and recovering very nicely.

Once the Extended Pre-Feasibility Study is finalised, this pup will be taken out by one of the big boys.

"In mid-2008, Indophil completed its own assessment of the project, ahead of the XPFS being completed
by Xstrata-SMI. Indophil’s findings were published in its Target’s Statement of 21 July 2008. Based on an
improved mineral resource – confirmed by Xstrata – of 2.2 billion tonnes, Indophil’s assessment was at
an initial mining and milling rate of 44Mtpa, building to 66Mtpa for an average production over the first
25 years of 300,000tpa of copper and 320,000ozpa of gold. Further, Indophil estimates that the C1 cash
operating cost would be closer to US60c per pound of copper, with a still undetermined molybdenum
credit to be factored into the operating cost estimate."

[JBmurc]

IRN starting to move finally today not long till Xstrata will have another chance to up the bid on IRN prime asset ,Glad to be holding should be very postive times ahead

[Dr_Who]

I bought some more recently. :)

It has broken through the 26 cents resistance. It should continue on its move. Whats interesting is that there is no sign of the large seller. Maybe something hot is brewing in the background. Fingers crossed for a positive outcome. :)

Doc noticed that Xstrata has successfully raised more cash. Maybe they have cash now for acquisition.


Have they hedged anything? It seems the price has gone the opposite way of gold which is usually a bad sign. Others like NEM are doing much better.

No hedging. They dont start production for another 1-2 years. Both Xstrata and Alson have a vested interest in seeing a lower sp for another possible carck at a T/O bid. Both failed to buy out IRN last year at $1.25-$1.30.

[Dr_Who]

The T/O of OZL highlights how cheap IRN.

If Xstrata and Alson do not hurry up the Chinese will take this one out also.

Hey, JB Mure you got the crays ready?

[JBmurc]

The T/O of OZL highlights how cheap IRN.

If Xstrata and Alson do not hurry up the Chinese will take this one out also.

Hey, JB Mure you got the crays ready?

I sure will:) holding 108,000 IRN so a $1+ offer would make my year esp. if it's closer to $2

[Ish]

I sure will:) holding 108,000 IRN so a $1+ offer would make my year esp. if it's closer to $2

Hehe.. I got some the other week at 23.5c but unfortunately went in a bit lighter than yourself.

Seems to be a lot of upside, I couldn't really see why the share price was so depressed? other than xsastra being a bit down on its luck which might push out any takeover from them...

[Dr_Who]

Welcome on board ISH.

Gold is over $970!!! Wont be long before it hits $1k. :eek:

IRN has over 15.2moz of Au reserve.

[JBmurc]

Welcome on board ISH.

Gold is over $970!!! Wont be long before it hits $1k. :eek:

IRN has over 15.2moz of Au reserve.

And 70mill+ in the bank right when theirs major credit woes for miners
If everything went to plan from a IRN shareholders point a view we could well see a $1 divie per share return to shareholders(from Tamp sale + a cash rich Gold/cu explorer with 100mill in the bank to explore on their other prime Philippine & Aus tenements)

[Dr_Who]

Tampakan feasibility study to start in July — Xstrata

GENERAL SANTOS CITY — Swiss miner Xstrata Copper seeks to start a feasibility study of the Tampakan copper and gold project in July and will continue reviewing detailed engineering requirements and the scope of potential operations until June.

In an 85-page year-end report, parent Xstrata Plc said a review of the extended pre-feasibility study conducted last year was meant to produce a "viable development proposition" before a decision is made on the final feasibility study stage.

"In view of the preliminary outcomes of the study, and current market conditions, [the Sagittarius Mines, Inc.] management will further review the detailed engineering, processing requirements and scope of the potential operations during the first half of 2009," the company said.
Xstrata Copper owns 62.5% of the South Cotabato mine and exercises management control in the venture pursued through Philippine affiliate Sagittarius Mines.

Xstrata Copper has sent the results of the pre-feasibility study, which included 9,000 meters of drilling, to partners Australian Indophil Resources NL and Filipino conglomerate Alsons Corp.

Indophil has a 34.23% stake in Tampakan, while Alsons owns 3.27%. Details of that 2008 study, however, have remained undisclosed.
Last month, Indophil said it had no reason to amend the estimated mineral resources at the Tampakan project, which it had placed at 2.2 billion tons. In its 2008 year-end report, Indophil said it had completed in the middle of last year its own assessment while Sagittarius was doing its extended pre-feasibility study.

"Based on an improved mineral resource — confirmed by Xstrata — of 2.2 billion tons, Indophil’s assessment was at an initial mining and milling rate of 44 million tons per annum (MTPA), building to 66 MTPA for an average production over the first 25 years of 300,000 TPA of copper and 320,000 ounce per annum of gold," the Indophil report said.

In 2006, Indophil conducted a pre-feasibility study that found deposits at Tampakan, which straddles the towns of Tampakan in South Cotabato, Columbio in Sultan Kudarat and Kiblawan in Davao del Sur, have a long life and could be mined at a low cost.

For this study that pegged mineral resources at 1.97 billion tons and a mining and milling rate of 30 MTPA, Tampakan was estimated at that time to be capable of producing on average over the first 25 years of mine life 194,000 tons of copper and 213,000 ounces of gold yearly.
"The latest Indophil estimates reaffirm our view that Tampakan is one of the most attractive, low-cost and long-life undeveloped copper deposits in the world," Indophil said. Xstrata Copper earlier tried but failed to gain full control of the Tampakan project.

Violence has marred the mining project since Xstrata assumed control of Sagittarius about two years ago for $47 million.
Last month, New People’s Army rebels stormed the Tampakan police station and other local government facilities for supporting the operations of Sagittarius. Four people, including three policemen, were wounded during the attack.

In December, armed men ambushed the vehicle of a Sagittarius drilling contractor inside the mine site, killing one worker and injuring two others. On New Year’s Day last year, communist rebels also raided the exploration base camp of Sagittarius in the village of Tablu, burning facilities worth at least P12 million. The local Catholic Church and environmental groups have also opposed the mining venture due to human health and environmental concerns. — Romer S. Sarmiento

[impacman]

Thanks for that post Dr. I have been watching this thread and doing a bit of research on IRN. Was unsure of the political situation and associated risk there and the post is clear on its presence - which is good to know.

Cheers,

I-man:)

[Dr_Who]

Thanks for that post Dr. I have been watching this thread and doing a bit of research on IRN. Was unsure of the political situation and associated risk there and the post is clear on its presence - which is good to know.

Cheers,

I-man:)

It gives me great comfort that Alson (Phillipino Company) wants to buy the Tampankan stake at a premium. If there was uncertain political risks then you would not have a local company wanting in the action. The reward must be substantially much higher than the risks.

[impacman]

It gives me great comfort that Alson (Phillipino Company) wants to buy the Tampankan stake at a premium. If there was uncertain political risks then you would not have a local company wanting in the action. The reward must be substantially much higher than the risks.

That is also good to know. Are you referring to the current stake they hold (the 3.27%) or are they trying to procur more?

Cheers.

[Dr_Who]

That is also good to know. Are you referring to the current stake they hold (the 3.27%) or are they trying to procur more?

Cheers.


If you go back to the announcements last year you will find that there are two parties trying to T/O IRN at $1.28, Xstrata and Alson. Xstrata trumped Alson by acquiring 19.9%, a blocking stake. Both parties failed to successfully take full control of IRN. Alson is now looking at acquiring the IRN stake in Tanpankan instead of IRN itself. If successful, Alson will pay between $1.00-$130 for Tampankan.

The risks is that both parties will not come back for another go at IRN and its assets. The value is there, but may take time to realise it. In the meantime, there maybe some resistances at 30 cents.

Please DYOR or seek advice from your broker before investing.

[shasta]

Thanks for that post Dr. I have been watching this thread and doing a bit of research on IRN. Was unsure of the political situation and associated risk there and the post is clear on its presence - which is good to know.

Cheers,

I-man:)

IRN has plenty of cash & a JV with a major in Xstrata

I used to hold LST, who did well out of IRN, but there relationships was fragmented to say the least.

I've got half an eye on them, just have better targets in the resource sector in mind.

[Dr_Who]

ASX Release ASX Code: IRN
19 February 2009

Tampakan’s world-class status confirmed

Indophil Resources has today released the preliminary findings of a near two-year Extended
Pre-Feasibility Study (XPFS) into the viability of the Tampakan Copper-Gold Project,
located in the southern Philippines. Aspects of the XPFS have not been finalised.

Indicative findings, derived from the Executive Summary that forms part of a 27 volume
XPFS delivered by project manager Xstrata Copper, include:

• Confirmation of a world-class, large-scale project with a 2.2 billion tonnes mineral
resource base containing an estimated initial 1.4 billion tonnes of mill feed.
• A proposed Stage One mining and milling rate of 44 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa),
leading into a Stage Two rate of 66Mtpa after three years. This Stage Two rate is
more than double the rate proposed in the September 2006 Pre-Feasibility Study
(PFS) conducted by Indophil.
• Life-of-mine average production of 325,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of copper
(contained in concentrate) peaking at more than 400,000tpa; 310,000 ounces per
annum of gold on average; and still undefined but significant production of
molybdenum.
• An initial milling recovery rate averaging 85% for copper and 62% for gold, with scope
for improvement.
• A concentrate grade of more than 35% copper.
• A highly-attractive C1 operating cost base of less than US60c per pound of copper
after gold credits (but still not factoring in molybdenum credits).

Indophil is confident that estimates published in its 21 July 2008 Target’s Statement –
including capital and operating costs – remain broadly applicable.
Richard Laufmann, Indophil’s CEO and MD said: “These indicative findings confirm the
world-class, long-life attributes of the Tampakan deposit. In our view, Tampakan is one of
the most attractive near-term new copper developments in the world.”
“At Indophil’s current share price, this values our stake in the project at around 0.4 of one
US cent per pound of copper in the ground. This is a fraction of the value historically
ascribed to major copper deposit transactions, and is reinforced by the range of US5.5c to
6.0c per pound of copper placed on Indophil’s stake in Tampakan by the independent
expert in Indophil’s 21 July 2008 Target’s Statement. The current valuation in relation to
Indophil’s share price is, by any measure, an extremely low figure,” he said.

To date, Sagittarius Mines Inc. (SMI), in concert with its majority owner Xstrata Copper, has
been unable to finalise all aspects of the study. Indophil will release further information upon
receipt and review of the final report.

In order to ensure that the project progresses in a timely and cost-competitive manner
which protects and maximises the value of Indophil’s stake in Tampakan, Indophil will
appoint its own global engineering house to review the XPFS results, and generate a scope
and price for the Bankable Feasibility Study.

SMI’s project partners include Xstrata Copper (62.5%) and Indophil Resources NL (34.23%)
with the remainder held by Philippine-based Alsons Corporation. SMI operates the
Tampakan project’s Financial and Technical Assistance Agreement as contractor to the
Government of the Philippines for the benefit of the partners and the people of the
Philippines.

[impacman]

Thanks to you both for the info and sharing your views. I hadn't picked up that Alson was trying a T/O as well - I had only got to the Xstrata attempt and that seems to have dominated the company T/O news in the last quarter of 2008. IRN has definitely has caught my interest though and your last post Dr about the XPFS does nothing to dampen it. Thanks again.

Cheers.

[JBmurc]

- 62.50% Xstrata

- 34.23% Indophil Resources NL

- 3.27% Alsons Corporation

An agreement between Indophil and Alsons will result in Indophil pregressively acquiring the A Class shares held by Alsons whereby Indophil will own 37.5% of the A Class shares at the commencement of production.

wonder when Xstrarta will make their move on IRN share of the world class project
soon while theres still mass fear in the market place or plan to wait it out to Copper prices regain their luster once more ethierway they will want it sooner or later I'm happy to add another 12,800 shares to my holding at 24.5c

[Dr_Who]

I still think Alson will make a move before Xstrata. Alson will take out Tampakan before product which would not trigger the option IRN has on Alson's share. The agreement to acquire Alson's share has been in place since the beginning of this project, nothing new.

I am looking to accumulate more shares at 20 cents.

[JBmurc]

I still think Alson will make a move before Xstrata. Alson will take out Tampakan before product which would not trigger the option IRN has on Alson's share. The agreement to acquire Alson's share has been in place since the beginning of this project, nothing new.

I am looking to accumulate more shares at 20 cents.

Yeah either way IRN should receive a fair price still Alson will only be a minor shareholder of the Xstrata's Tampakan project thats if they offer a better price than Xstrata to control the lot

[JBmurc]

Copper up 3.4% Gold strong -IRN 25c fair value $1.50+

just checkout who holds most of IRN only 22.19% outside the top 20 holders Now that alone shows the value of the stock when it's mostly held for the long term

just checkout the chart most of the volume has been low with only two days out of the last 6months at alittle over 5mill with most under 1mill shares changing hands with total shares at 345mill est. it's really only been the smaller holders selling IRN cheap mum&dad investors needing to raise cash to pay bills etc..



Twenty largest shareholders
Listed Ordinary Shares
Number of
Holders
Ordinary Shares %
Xstrata Queensland Limited 78,594,711 19.99
National Nominees Limited 41,052,796 10.44
CitiCorp Nominees Pty Limited 35,754,140 9.09
Auselect Limited 26,853,206 6.83
ANZ Nominees Limited (Cash Income A/C) 23,219,671 5.91
HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited – A/C 3 21,102,564 5.37
Zero Nominees Pty Ltd 12,254,157 3.12
Alsons Corporation 11,100,000 2.82
HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited – A/C 2 10,772,428 2.74
JP Morgan Nominees Australia Limited 9,937,175 2.53
HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited – GSCO -EC A 5,981,589 1.52
HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited 5,131,488 1.31
Southcot Mining Corporation 4,629,630 1.18
CitiCorp Nominees Pty Ltd (Cwlth Bank Off Super A/C) 3,795,489 0.97
Indophil Employee Share Plan Pty Ltd 3,277,493 0.83
Khalon Pty Limited 3,103,205 0.79
UBS Nominees Pty Ltd 2,980,910 0.76
Alsons Development & Investment Corporation 2,476,900 0.63
Haustella Pty Ltd 2,132,105 0.54
Ardrilt Investments Pty Ltd 1,747,317 0.44
Total 305,896,974 77.81

[impacman]

Have had an order in for 50,000 @23c for last three days - think I have missed it this time. Might just go in at 25c and be done with it. Intend to hold 100,000. Just not sure that the bear is gone so doing it in traunches.

[JBmurc]

Have had an order in for 50,000 @23c for last three days - think I have missed it this time. Might just go in at 25c and be done with it. Intend to hold 100,000. Just not sure that the bear is gone so doing it in traunches.

When you think that most of the top 20 paid a hell of alot more than 25c a couple cents here or their wont matter much once it's over $1
As for Dr whos IRN at 20c prob as much chance as the USD gaining over the short-term with a trillion new USD being made out of thin-air

[impacman]

When you think that most of the top 20 paid a hell of alot more than 25c a couple cents here or their wont matter much once it's over $1
As for Dr whos IRN at 20c prob as much chance as the USD gaining over the short-term with a trillion new USD being made out of thin-air


You are right and I have changed order to 26c. Hopefully that will do it.

[Dr_Who]

I ve already got a decent holding of around 300,000, so it doesnt worry me if the sp go up or down. If it comes down I will buy more, if not then thats better.

This company is in the final stages of production. At these prices it is a steal. Hopefully one of the big boys will steal it off us at $1.30.

[Ish]

Thats a tidy amount you've got there Dr. I picked up 10k at 23.5 a while ago and have toyed with selling them as it is a rather miniscule amount and I dont like holding too many stocks.

Either sell or I could add a few

[Dr_Who]

I am holding onto this one for the T/O.

It is going into the long term portfolio. :)

[Ish]

I am holding onto this one for the T/O.

It is going into the long term portfolio. :)

Thats why I'm holding mine too, and I suppose takeover figures could make it a worthy sum.

I hold 4 stocks at the moment and dont want to get any more than that amount.

Not a big fan of diversification..

[JBmurc]

I ve already got a decent holding of around 300,000, so it doesnt worry me if the sp go up or down. If it comes down I will buy more, if not then thats better.

This company is in the final stages of production. At these prices it is a steal. Hopefully one of the big boys will steal it off us at $1.30.

nice holding -Dr who- hopefully at a good average if any of my other holding esp. my 500k STX holding becomes profitable I'd like to increase my IRN holding anything under 30c would do......
Looks like some bargin hunters also see the value little sell depth till 30c

[shasta]

Thats why I'm holding mine too, and I suppose takeover figures could make it a worthy sum.

I hold 4 stocks at the moment and dont want to get any more than that amount.

Not a big fan of diversification..

Excellent strategy, i also follow the 5 max stock rule.

Why buy keep buying other stocks, rather than the ones you have?

If there are better options you'd be better selling out etc.

IRN looks promising, i just don't see the value in it that others do.

[impacman]

Finally got in at 26c. Happy with that for now.

[Dr_Who]

Xstrata holds 19.99% of IRN after a unsuccessful hostile T/O attempt at $1.28. Will they come back and have another crack at IRN?

UPDATE: Xstrata Sees M&A Opportunities Emerging In Sector

http://www.easybourse.com/bourse-actualite/marches/update-xstrata-sees-m-a-opportunities-emerging-in-sector-637474

[shasta]

Xstrata holds 19.99% of IRN after a unsuccessful hostile T/O attempt at $1.28. Will they come back and have another crack at IRN?

UPDATE: Xstrata Sees M&A Opportunities Emerging In Sector

http://www.easybourse.com/bourse-actualite/marches/update-xstrata-sees-m-a-opportunities-emerging-in-sector-637474

I should point out that GMI has a stake in Xstrata, hence my indirect interest in IRN.

Personally i'm not interested in near term projects, i only want exposure to profitable projects already in production.

[Ish]

Excellent strategy, i also follow the 5 max stock rule.

Why buy keep buying other stocks, rather than the ones you have?

If there are better options you'd be better selling out etc.

IRN looks promising, i just don't see the value in it that others do.

Strongly agree with your investment strategy.

I buy stocks on capital account and that's partly why I go as high as 4 so that I'm not buying and selling too often.

[Dr_Who]

I should point out that GMI has a stake in Xstrata, hence my indirect interest in IRN.

Personally i'm not interested in near term projects, i only want exposure to profitable projects already in production.


You gotta take some risk for some extraordinary gains. Abit like your URA you used to own. I have a mix of blue chips and high risk stocks. Life would be boring if we all invest in blue chips and bonds.

[shasta]

You gotta take some risk for some extraordinary gains. Abit like your URA you used to own. I have a mix of blue chips and high risk stocks. Life would be boring if we all invest in blue chips and bonds.

Well unless you want to day trade like the FX folk (Arco, Peat, Dumbass), or swing trade like AA, etc, where is the best place for the "fundies"?

You have the Belg, Snoopy, Oiler types that will accummulate at low prices (or even average down which Phaedrus dislikes), & people largely cashed up & out of the market, ie Macdunk, Footsie, Strat.

Interest rates are rubbish, property still going down, & bonds are really for those wanting fixed income but not the downside of a falling SP.

Thing is in a bear market, forget looking for multi-baggers, & URA was a potential multi bagger during the Uranium hype at the end of the bull market, sadly it never happened. (I still hold 100k URAO :()

So where to look?

Well, LIC's get forgotten in the bull markets where every newcomer sees the easy gains & thinks they can outsmart the pro's.

In a bear market LIC's can offer above average returns via distributions whilst giving some upside exposure to capital gains.

Currently i'm looking at a few LIC type companies to give me a decent return until either the markets swing up, or other growth companies i'm watching hit my buy price.

From now on i will be re-entering the market, with some small select buys on a regular basis, up to a max of 5 stocks.

Which ever looks like it's heading up on the charts will be added to.

I think people have to be more realistic about what returns they can expect in this market.

I've been burnt before with stocks like IRN, & it can take along time before the market attributes any perceived value that holders see in it.

Other stocks along the same lines as IRN:

EQN, VCN, ALK, THX, PLA, MOL, MAK, AQA, LYC, ARU

PS, A small mining spec i'm keeping tabs on is GBE...

[Dr_Who]

One can get too negative in this market and miss out on opportunities.

Just have to follow the Chinese and see what will happen in the future. The Chinese buying up the resources in Aussie is like handling you a crystal to next years lotto ticket.

I ve made a few bobs trading OZL. There are a few more iron ore and other resource stocks one must keep an eye on. In times like this it is an opportunity to buy cheap assets and hold for the big gains.

[shasta]

One can get too negative in this market and miss out on opportunities.

Just have to follow the Chinese and see what will happen in the future. The Chinese buying up the resources in Aussie is like handling you a crystal to next years lotto ticket.

I ve made a few bobs trading OZL. There are a few more iron ore and other resource stocks one must keep an eye on. In times like this it is an opportunity to buy cheap assets and hold for the big gains.

The Chinese buying into RIO is the start of it all, i agree.

I've read in one of GMI's anns about the mining majors with bulk commodities doing alright (especially those with PGM exposure too).

Not being overly negative (i'm usually bullish) just realistic.

[JBmurc]

The main reason I brought into IRN was the fact at 25c-30c you got 20c in cash they hold per share in the bank,No dept with only 5c-10c added for their interest in Xstrata #1 future cashflow driver project then once you see IRN have many other tenements in the rich untapped grounds of the philippines they could well be another large Cu-gold resources found within a short time frame..

[Dr_Who]

You are on to it JBmurc.

The only thing holding down this sp I assume is the big seller out there supplying stock. Until the seller finishes I assume the sp will stay below 30 cents. On the positive side, there is liquidity and can get hands on some cheap shares.

[impacman]

Any views as to who this seller might be?

[Dr_Who]

Any views as to who this seller might be?

UBS Nominees

from 11.14% to 8.38%

Look it up in the ssh news.

[impacman]

Thanks - had seen that - just thought you might have had some devine knowledge or hunch and knew who they were holding for:)

Cheers,

Tom

[JBmurc]

Unless some more sellers bring some weight to their depth IRN bidders should push the SP alot higher if they want a piece, only 120,000 on the sell side some 560,000 on the bids
I really hope we've seen the last of the funds selling pressure cause with only 20% odd percent of shares held outside top20 it wouldn't take much buying pressure to double the SP

[Ish]

That is interesting.

The selling depth has fallen right out

[impacman]

Now got as many of these as I wanted avg 26.5c. Come on T/O:rolleyes:

[STRAT]

Well unless you want to day trade like the FX folk (Arco, Peat, Dumbass), or swing trade like AA, etc, where is the best place for the "fundies"?

You have the Belg, Snoopy, Oiler types that will accummulate at low prices (or even average down which Phaedrus dislikes), & people largely cashed up & out of the market, ie Macdunk, Footsie, Strat.


More than one way to skin a cat eh Shasta?
Each way has its merit too.
Belgarian ( not sure if it really applies to him but ... ) Snoopy and Oiler have minimal time input by their own admission and that has great merrit. If you can make money doin something else while the portfolio mostly takes care of its self thats a winning strategy for sure.

I think for Phaedrus and AA this is their day job.

Macdunk I think is retired so a cautious approach is most certainly wise. I hassel him about it from time to time but I believe he is doing the right thing.

For me its a hobby so if I dont have time to play I usually pull out. Specs are like small children. You cant leave em on their own for long or they misbehave :D

Dunno about those multi baggers though. Seems there have been a few of late.

BOW holders for one and VPE is real close to a multi for me or it was at todays high. Im sure Ive seen others here too lately, just cant remember which or who.

[newbietrader]

Did he referring to IRN?? hmmm ...
.................................................. ..................
April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Xstrata Plc, the world’s fourth- largest copper miner, said it may buy other producers after a ”collapse” in equities slashed the cost of potential targets.

A lack of financing for small- and mid-sized companies is creating opportunities for Xstrata that were previously “closed off” when equities were soaring, Xstrata Copper Chief Executive Officer Charlie Sartain said yesterday in an interview.

Acquisitions may help Xstrata double copper output and take advantage of stronger demand once a financial crisis ends. The Zug, Switzerland-based company raised 4.1 billion pounds ($5.9 billion) in a share sale last month and may use those funds to help finance purchases in copper or other commodities, he said.

“We’d certainly be looking at acquisitions as part of growth,” he said. “We’re looking at shifting our focus.”

Xstrata’s copper production will be little changed this year at about 950,000 tons, while the company wants to increase output to about 2 million tons. Unlike larger competitors such as BHP Billiton Ltd. and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., Xstrata hasn’t cut output of the metal this year after a 57 percent drop in copper prices from a May record.

The “long-term” outlook for copper hasn’t fallen as much as the share prices of some companies, making assets “more attractive,” Sartain said in Santiago.

There are “small- to mid-sized companies that will be substantially constrained in their capacity to grow,” he said.

U.S. Demand

U.S. demand for copper may have hit bottom amid the global economic crisis, Jose Pablo Arellano, chief executive officer of Codelco, the world’s biggest copper-mining company, said yesterday in Santiago. There are signs that demand may stop falling in the U.S. as government spending helps to boost use of the metal. China, the world’s largest consumer, is showing a ”dynamism” in its demand for copper, he said.

Copper has gained 31 percent in three months, the second- best performer after gasoline among 19 raw materials tracked by the RJ/CRB commodity index. The metal, used in copper and wiring, has proved to be “resilient” compared with other metals during the global economic crisis, Sartain said.

Xstrata’s output slid 3 percent to 952,426 tons of copper in 2008 from the year earlier, according to its Web site.

Copper Futures

Copper futures for delivery in May yesterday rose 7.85 cents, or 4.4 percent, to $1.8445 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal marked its largest quarterly jump since 2006.

While there has been a “significant” drop in copper supplies, supply will outpace demand this year, Sartain said. Recent gains won’t be enough to encourage companies to resume production that was cut as prices slumped, he said.
.................................................. ............................

[JBmurc]

UBS Nominees

from 11.14% to 8.38%

Look it up in the ssh news.

IRN currently up 20% 32c (glad I averaged down to 27c)
Got a real good feeling about IRN of late think we will see some very postive news soon

massive 10mill+ volume today UBS wants out someone want in Xstrata increasing their grip for the $1+ takeover soon ?

[shasta]

Well unless you want to day trade like the FX folk (Arco, Peat, Dumbass), or swing trade like AA, etc, where is the best place for the "fundies"?

You have the Belg, Snoopy, Oiler types that will accummulate at low prices (or even average down which Phaedrus dislikes), & people largely cashed up & out of the market, ie Macdunk, Footsie, Strat.

Interest rates are rubbish, property still going down, & bonds are really for those wanting fixed income but not the downside of a falling SP.

Thing is in a bear market, forget looking for multi-baggers, & URA was a potential multi bagger during the Uranium hype at the end of the bull market, sadly it never happened. (I still hold 100k URAO :()

So where to look?

Well, LIC's get forgotten in the bull markets where every newcomer sees the easy gains & thinks they can outsmart the pro's.

In a bear market LIC's can offer above average returns via distributions whilst giving some upside exposure to capital gains.

Currently i'm looking at a few LIC type companies to give me a decent return until either the markets swing up, or other growth companies i'm watching hit my buy price.

From now on i will be re-entering the market, with some small select buys on a regular basis, up to a max of 5 stocks.

Which ever looks like it's heading up on the charts will be added to.

I think people have to be more realistic about what returns they can expect in this market.

I've been burnt before with stocks like IRN, & it can take along time before the market attributes any perceived value that holders see in it.

Other stocks along the same lines as IRN:

EQN, VCN, ALK, THX, PLA, MOL, MAK, AQA, LYC, ARU

PS, A small mining spec i'm keeping tabs on is GBE...

GBE has taken off, especially today for all you Niobium/rare earth fans

[JBmurc]

IRN stats for the day

Volume of 12.2m

Third highest volume day in 7 years.

Price up almost 25% at 33c

my future news ann heading prediction -TAKEOVER OFFER- get ready IRN shareholders we'll have the an offer very soon IMHO what's the bottom $$$$ you sell out at $1.28?? mmmmmmmmmm can't wait

[Dr_Who]

It is getting closer indeed. :)

I am waiting for the crayfish. :p Million dollar catch.

The T/O will be between $1.10 - $1.30. I am guessing Alson will have the first crack at it, then follow by Xstrata to try and block them.

[JBmurc]

It is getting closer indeed. :)

I am waiting for the crayfish. :p Million dollar catch.

The T/O will be between $1.10 - $1.30. I am guessing Alson will have the first crack at it, then follow by Xstrata to try and block them.

mmmm a biding war sounds good

[marknz88]

I'll take a nice round $1.0 for my stake!

What is everyone's preferred tactic for t/o's? Sell this initial t/o offer or hold and hope for the bidding war?

[JBmurc]

I'll take a nice round $1.0 for my stake!

What is everyone's preferred tactic for t/o's? Sell this initial t/o offer or hold and hope for the bidding war?

Well first we need a offer I'd be very surprised if it wasn't above $1 once this offer in announced the SP will rocket to within cents of the offer -personal at $1sp I'll prob hold and wait to see what the top 20 do which make up near 80% of outstanding shares these guys will be the ones who will decide what price we get personal I'd like 1.50 am seriously thinking about selling down my DIO to buy another 50,000 IRN

[Dr_Who]

Xstrata will never sell their 19.99% stake. They want full control and knows the value of the Tampakan project.

My take is that Alson will go with their original plans to buy out the Tampakan holding from IRN valuing the stake at around $1.28 per share. This will bypass the T/O code and Xstrata's blocking stake in IRN. Alson will probably have a backer from China or an Investment bank.

Xstrata will probably come in to block Alson with a higher offer for the Tampakan stake and/or full T/O for all of IRN.

Here's hoping. ;)

[marknz88]

Cheers for the insight.

Now we just sit back and wait for the fireworks.

Will be interesting to see if today is a continuation of yesterdays surge (closing on the high points towards a continuation) or if we see a bit of a sell off.

[JBmurc]

Xstrata will never sell their 19.99% stake. They want full control and knows the value of the Tampakan project.

My take is that Alson will go with their original plans to buy out the Tampakan holding from IRN valuing the stake at around $1.28 per share. This will bypass the T/O code and Xstrata's blocking stake in IRN. Alson will probably have a backer from China or an Investment bank.

Xstrata will probably come in to block Alson with a higher offer for the Tampakan stake and/or full T/O for all of IRN.

Here's hoping. ;)

You might be PM me your address for that crayfish sooner than expected Drwho

[JBmurc]

Dear Gonzalo
In response to an ASX enquiry of 6 April 2009, Indophil Resources ((ASX: IRN) reports that:
1. No. Indophil is not aware of any specific information that has not been publicly announced
that would provide an explanation for an escalated upward change in its share price or the
increase in volumes traded. However, Indophil provides the following by way of contextual
background which may be relevant.
(a) Indophil reported in its Quarterly Report to the ASX dated 30 January 2009 that it had
received, for management review and comment, an indicative draft of the Extended
Pre-Feasibility Study (XPFS) into the Tampakan Copper-Gold Project in which
Indophil holds a 34.23% interest. The indicative draft was provided to the various
shareholders in the Tampakan operating arm known as Sagittarius Mines, Inc. (SMI)
by Tampakan’s project manager, Xstrata Copper.
(b) Further detail is contained in the Indophil Quarterly Report and a separate Indophil
ASX Release titled ‘Tampakan’s world-class status confirmed’, dated 19 February
2009. Further, Xstrata publicly announced in its preliminary results issued on
29 January 2009 that post delivery of the indicative XPFS, SMI has been reviewing
the detailed engineering, processing requirements and scope of the Tampakan
project. Indophil has provided input to this review process, and it is expected that a
final version of the XPFS will be available for SMI shareholder review shortly.
(c) IRN remains of the view that the Tampakan project is one of the most attractive – if
not the most attractive – new copper developments in the world.

[JBmurc]

36.5c close very nice 37c high 40's next week if this vol keeps up another massive 8.8mill traded UBS sellling down the idots .
-Alsons wants to buy their 34% stake of Tampakan of IRN
-Xstrata has said this is top priority project for them only!
-BHP rasies even more cash to their $$$ pile Xstrata on the radar?? with the failed RIO bid
eitherway IRN $1 now or $2+ longer term

[shasta]

36.5c close very nice 37c high 40's next week if this vol keeps up another massive 8.8mill traded UBS sellling down the idots .
-Alsons wants to buy their 34% stake of Tampakan of IRN
-Xstrata has said this is top priority project for them only!
-BHP rasies even more cash to their $$$ pile Xstrata on the radar?? with the failed RIO bid
eitherway IRN $1 now or $2+ longer term

UBS seemingly reducing at the wrong time!

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=IRN&E=ASX&N=316469

GMI have a good chunk of BHP & Xstrata, so i'm watching with interest

[Ish]

I Increased my stake by 25k today at 36c.

Hope for big things in the coming weeks

[Dr_Who]

If the big boys dont hurry up and make another go for the T/O IRN it will be too late and they may have to pay a much bigger premium. It is all good. :)

You guys must be very happy shareholders.

[impacman]

If the big boys dont hurry up and make another go for the T/O IRN it will be too late and they may have to pay a much bigger premium. It is all good. :)

You guys must be very happy shareholders.

Certainly looking good at this point. Tempted to increase my holding but will try and stick to the game plan which says I have enough.:rolleyes:

[impacman]

IRN has gone into a trading halt - I wonder why? Could this be the highly anticipated TO or Tampakan purchase by Alsom? Find out Wednesday most likely.

[Footsie]

its reviweing the feasabiliyt study.

Could be good OR bad news

[Dr_Who]

Very interesting Chairman's statement in paricular is this one. It wont be long now guys. Fingers crossed.

We are in a sound position to meet our Tampakan study commitments through to
finalisation of the Final Feasibility Study. With the completed XPFS we will be able to advise
potential buyers of the project scope, scale and economics. It is a requirement that Indophil,
Xstrata, Alsons and the original owners, the Tampakan Group of Companies, jointly sign
any confidentiality agreement that gives a third party access to any information relating to
Tampakan. We anticipate that we will be in a position to provide information by way of
access to a “data room” to a number of interested parties, and we are in the process of
completing confidentiality terms. It is not appropriate to name potentially interested parties,
or to forecast possible commercial terms or timing.

[impacman]

Very interesting Chairman's statement in paricular is this one. It wont be long now guys. Fingers crossed.

We are in a sound position to meet our Tampakan study commitments through to
finalisation of the Final Feasibility Study. With the completed XPFS we will be able to advise
potential buyers of the project scope, scale and economics. It is a requirement that Indophil,
Xstrata, Alsons and the original owners, the Tampakan Group of Companies, jointly sign
any confidentiality agreement that gives a third party access to any information relating to
Tampakan. We anticipate that we will be in a position to provide information by way of
access to a “data room” to a number of interested parties, and we are in the process of
completing confidentiality terms. It is not appropriate to name potentially interested parties,
or to forecast possible commercial terms or timing.

Certainly from that quote (and the general tone of the Address) I think it is reasonable to infer that they still think there will be interest in buying the Tampakan stake. Just how much is the big question.

[Footsie]

based on the company's comments at the presenation
i',m leaning towards this news being quite +ve

[Dr_Who]

Footsie, I didnt know you have an interest in IRN. :)

[mark100]

Article in The Age today suggests the report will increase production rate expectations. Also comments at the AGM by the MD that the ultimate resource could be 2-3 times bigger but they haven't bothered drilling anymore as they already have enough reserves.

I bought on the initial break of 30c a couple of weeks back after following this story for quite a while. I expect big gains will be made here at some stage

[Dr_Who]

If the article is correct, we may see $1.28 sooner than expected.

I am in this all the way and not going to trade it. I am waiting for the $1.20+.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/indophil-trade-halt-before-mine-facts-20090420-acos.html

[Footsie]

DR

if its in an uptrend and the fundamentals look good its on my radar...

IRN fits this bill

[Dr_Who]

Indophil's plucky results

PLUCKY Indophil Resources is expected to release details today of partner Xstrata's long awaited pre-feasibility study into what the little Australian is calling the "most attractive new copper development in the world".

The project is called Tampakan and it sits in the mountains of Mindanao, one of the most restless of the Philippines provinces. As thing stand, Indophil owns 34 per cent of Tampakan while Xstrata, which is the operator of the project, owns pretty much all of the rest.

Tampakan was discovered by WMC back in 1992 but a combination of civil unrest and economic circumstance saw the Australian surrender the project before the turn of the century. It was picked up by Indophil in 2002 and Xstrata was introduced as a partner in 2006.

And that is when the real fun began.

Xstrata quickly realised that Tampakan was the real deal. Which is why, for more than 12 months, Indophil's fate has swung delicately in the breeze.

Over that time, Indophil's major shareholder, Lion Selection, has attempted to sell a blocking 17.7 per cent stake in Indophil to Xstrata. Indophil then bid for Lion selection. Xstrata then bid for Indophil. It was then trumped by interests associated with Indophil chief executive Richard Laufmann who then, under the influence of GFC, passed his support for a bid from Alsons Corporation, a company associated with Filipino millionaires and long-time supporters of Tampakan.

But, for all that shaking and moving, Indophil remains where it started: a listed Australian company with a major stake in what is potentially a $US5billion project.

How real that potential is, we will see today. But all the indications are that Xstrata's hard work is going to endorse what we know about Tampakan. That it is a deposit that can support production of a 325,000 tonnes a year of copper concentrate and 310,000 ounces of gold with molybdenum credits. The report is likely to support the view that Tampakan can operate at cash costs of something near US60c a pound, including the gold credits but not the molybdenum. And, most importantly, it is likely to tell us that the Philippines Government is beginning to get very keen on the project and that it is close to setting some meaningful timeframes for the partners to either use, or lose, the project.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25367560-30538,00.html

[Dr_Who]

Indophil Resources NL, a 34.23% partner in the Tampakan Copper-Gold Project in the
southern Philippines, has received and reviewed the completed Extended Pre-
Feasibility Study (XPFS). The XPFS was conducted by Sagittarius Mines Inc., as owner of
the Tampakan Project, in conjunction with project manager Xstrata Copper which has a
62.5% interest in the project.

These results, which are still subject to confirmation within a Final Feasibility Study (FFS),
outline a potential mining operation based on:

• An annual average copper production of 340,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) and
350,000 ounces per annum (ozpa) of gold, based on a 20 year operation.

• Open pit mining with land-based waste rock and tailings storage.

• Mill recovery rates of 83-90% for copper and 60-80% for gold, with a copper
concentrate grade of 37-34%.

• An initial stage one capital outlay of US$5.2 billion, including provision for associated
infrastructure and a contingency of more than US$800 million.

The study confirms the world-class, low-cost and long-life nature of the deposit,
underpinned by a 2.2 billion tonne mineral resource containing 12.8 million tonnes of copper
and 15.2 million ounces of gold.
In commenting on the latest study results, Indophil’s CEO, Richard Laufmann, described
them as “very favourable and compelling. Based on these findings, Tampakan is a standout
as the most realistic and attractive undeveloped copper-gold deposit in the world.”

Further details from the XPFS include:

• Year 1-3 production (stage one, @ 44Mtpa ore processing) estimated at 320ktpa of
copper and 290kozpa of gold, with year 4-20 production (stage two, @ 66Mtpa)
estimated at 346ktpa of copper and 359kozpa of gold.

• An average operating cost to produce copper concentrate of US$9.87/tonne of ore
over the first three years, reducing to US$7.01/tonne of ore in stage two with a cost
estimate over 20 years of operation of US$7.31/tonne of ore.

• C1 cash cost estimate of US46c/lb (including gold credits @ US$800 an ounce).

• An operating strip ratio of 0.75:1 (ore/waste) after a pre-strip of 120Mt.
Indophil Resources NL | Level 3, 411 Collins Street | Melbourne VIC 3000 | Australia

Mr Laufmann said that from an Indophil perspective, “the latest Tampakan findings warrant
immediate commitment to the Final Feasibility Study.”

Indophil’s assessment of the results from the latest study is that:

• A new C1 cost estimate of US46c/lb (excluding molybdenum credits but with gold
credits @ US$800 an ounce) is outstanding, and when possible molybdenum production
is taken into account this cost estimate has the potential to drive even lower. At
US46c/lb, this places Tampakan solidly in the lowest and most attractive cost quartile.

• The project shows strong EBIT and EBITDA throughout the nominated 20 year
operation.

• Based on the latest study, but still subject to the FFS, the NPV calculated using recent
copper prices of US$2.20/lb and US$800/ounce gold, is (at a post-tax 10% discount
rate) US$1.2 billion and (at an 8% discount rate) US$2.2 billion.

[Ish]

Cash costs of 46c per pound of copper (incl gold credits) looks to be good news

[Dr_Who]

Cash costs of 46c per pound of copper (incl gold credits) looks to be good news

It is indeed, especially when copper is trading at $2.10 per pound currently with potential to be much higher next year when the global economy recovers. :)

[shasta]

It is indeed, especially when copper is trading at $2.10 per pound currently with potential to be much higher next year when the global economy recovers. :)

When will IRN be in production though?

IRN has all the fundamentals, just like EQN & AGS do, so i'm keeping an eye on them all.

I've held LST before, & GMI have a chunk of Xstrata, so i'm looking potentially for a more direct interest into IRN.

[Dr_Who]

When will IRN be in production though?

IRN has all the fundamentals, just like EQN & AGS do, so i'm keeping an eye on them all.

I've held LST before, & GMI have a chunk of Xstrata, so i'm looking potentially for a more direct interest into IRN.


I used to own LST also and sold it when IRN launched a T/O. That's how I got to know IRN.

I think (from memory) they go into production sometime next year. The timing couldnt be better, esp for the copper price and global recovery. One of the big boys will come back for another go at IRN before they go into production.

[impacman]

Having jumped in and holdng IRN for the last couple of months I am comfortable with its position etc (not looking for a short term trade etc).

At risk of being seen to be missing something I am not sure why they would have called a tading halt on the basis of the information released today. There did not appear to be anyting startling or unexpected at all - in fact if anything at all it raises questions in my mind as to why call a trading halt at all (IRN marketing dept wanting to justify employment - just kidding but I don't see the "significant share price altering news" that you would expect with a trading halt.) Market would appear to agree.

Any thoughts?

[suntboy]

Gday Doc
as you are aware I too have a small piece of Lion
I had remembered a projected start date from somewhere so have just had a look and found in Lions quarterly report July 2007
Estimated production 2011/12
I cannot see it getting closer than that , I would think further

Welcome to Suntland

[shasta]

Gday Doc
as you are aware I too have a small piece of Lion
I had remembered a projected start date from somewhere so have just had a look and found in Lions quarterly report July 2007
Estimated production 2011/12
I cannot see it getting closer than that , I would think further

Welcome to Suntland

Thats my main issue with companies not in production NOW, they will miss out on the early gains when the market turns north.

Perhaps my holding in GMI has enough copper coverage with BHP, RIO, EQN & Xstrata among others.

[Dr_Who]

Indophil hopes rise

FINALLY, as predicted, Indophil went to market yesterday with the pre-feasibility study for the Tampakan copper project it shares with the miners from Zug, Xstrata.

And the news is a bit better than we had anticipated. Xstrata is working on plans for a $US5.2 billion project to produce 340,000 tonnes of copper annually and which would have cash costs of US46c a pound before accounting for molybdenum credits. To put that in perspective, that is about 50 per cent more output than Olympic Dam (BHP) at probably comparable cost.

In a second announcement made in The Philippines, Xstrata revealed it was working on a "potential schedule" for first production by 2016. And there is some hope that two years could be shaved from the target should The Philippines fast-track approval.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25372212-5005200,00.html

[suntboy]

Gday Doc
Being a long time Lion holder this seems eerily like Lafayette who ultimately went bust in the Phillipines.
If they say 2016 I would tend to think 2020 but from what I can gather you guys are just in for the sale to Alsons or Xtrata so good luck to you all.
My feelings are you would want the share price to gradually rise for 12 months or so to get your 1.00 - 1.20.If it happens too quickly I think the price would be .60 at most using weighted averages and the like.
For those in for the long haul you have the patience of Sunt.

Welcome to Suntland

[impacman]

Indophil hopes rise

FINALLY, as predicted, Indophil went to market yesterday with the pre-feasibility study for the Tampakan copper project it shares with the miners from Zug, Xstrata.

And the news is a bit better than we had anticipated. Xstrata is working on plans for a $US5.2 billion project to produce 340,000 tonnes of copper annually and which would have cash costs of US46c a pound before accounting for molybdenum credits. To put that in perspective, that is about 50 per cent more output than Olympic Dam (BHP) at probably comparable cost.

In a second announcement made in The Philippines, Xstrata revealed it was working on a "potential schedule" for first production by 2016. And there is some hope that two years could be shaved from the target should The Philippines fast-track approval.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25372212-5005200,00.html

Thanks Dr. Would appear to remain a game of wait and see....

[Dr_Who]

It is also in the best interest for Xstrata to talk down the sp. I am confident they will want full control of the Tampakan project. For full control they will have to T/O IRN or pay a premium for IRN's Tampakan holding.

[Dr_Who]

Looking good. Price breached the 40 cents resistance.

[JBmurc]

Looking good. Price breached the 40 cents resistance.

yeah with pently more to come might be building me pad sooner than expected
43c atm go you good thing $1 in it's sights

[Ish]

yeah with pently more to come might be building me pad sooner than expected
43c atm go you good thing $1 in it's sights

Very nice rise today on 8mill volume presumably to do with coppers rebound on friday US time. Glad I added a few at 36c recently.

Got in at 23.5c at first but felt I was a bit light to really make an impact

[JBmurc]

Xstrata Plc, the world's fourth- largest copper miner, said it may buy other producers after a "collapse" in equities slashed the cost of potential targets.


A lack of financing for small- and mid-sized companies is creating opportunities for Xstrata that were previously "closed off" when equities were soaring, Xstrata Copper Chief Executive Officer Charlie Sartain said yesterday in an interview.


Acquisitions may help Xstrata double copper output and take advantage of stronger demand once the financial crisis ends. The Zug, Switzerland-based company raised 4.1 billion pounds ($5.9 billion) in a share sale last month and may use those funds to help finance purchases in copper or other commodities, he said.


"We'd certainly be looking at acquisitions as part of growth," he said. "We're looking at shifting our focus."Xstrata advanced 43.75 pence, or 9.4 percent, to 510.5 pence in London trading, taking this year's gain to 41 percent. The Bloomberg Europe Metals & Mining Index, which tracks 13 companies in the region, rose 1.8 percent today.


Xstrata's copper production will be little changed this year at about 950,000 tons, while the company wants to increase output to about 2 million tons. Unlike larger competitors such as BHP Billiton Ltd. and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., Xstrata hasn't cut output of the metal this year after a 57 percent drop in copper prices from a May record.


The "long-term" outlook for copper hasn't fallen as much as the share prices of some companies, making assets "more attractive," Sartain said in Santiago.

[suntboy]

Slowly Slowly wins the race

[Dr_Who]

Another healthy turnover in IRN today.

Surely there must be a SSH announcement soon.

[Dr_Who]

Wow nearly hit 50 cents.
:eek:

[JBmurc]

Wow nearly hit 50 cents.
:eek:

non-stop strong buying in IRN this week hope it does stop too well north of $1

[Ish]

Very nice last few days for IRN. There is little selling resistance today and the price is moving up quite easily.

[Dr_Who]

Would you sell if you know this company is worth north of $1.50 and that both Alson and Xstrata have tried to T/O at $1.28 and failed?

[Dr_Who]

Tampakan preparing for market recovery

By Riza T. Olchondra
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 20:17:00 05/10/2009

Filed Under: Gold & Precious Materials, Employment
MANILA, Philippines—An anticipated surge in copper demand presents good prospects for the Tampakan gold-copper mine by the time it goes into production in 2016, an investor in the project said.

“I think the price of copper will be two to three times higher by 2016 (present price is $4,590 per ton or $2.09 per ounce),” Richard Laufmann, CEO of Indophil Resources NL (a minority shareholder in Tampakan), said in an interview.

“Between 2014 and 2016 there may be a gap in supply. Some estimates say that the world will use more copper in the next five years than all that we have used so far since the industrial age,” Laufmann said.

Laufmann said demand for copper would come largely from electricity generation and distribution sector in developing and developed countries.

When the world emerges from the current crisis, countries will need even more copper for electricity to drive domestic infrastructure development.

Developed countries shifting to green technology will also need more copper for such things as electronic cars, mixed alloys for lighter aircraft and wind turbines, he said.

“Copper may run out in 25 years, that’s what some experts say. And no new major reserves have been discovered in 20 years,” he said, explaining that the anticipated gap in supply.

Tampakan is considered as one of the largest untapped copper mineral resources in Southeast Asia, with an estimated 2-billion ton deposit. It is expected to produce an average of 340,000 tons of copper and 350,000 ounces of gold yearly.

Laufmann said at least $50 million will be spent on Tampakan for a final feasibility study to be completed by April 2010.

Another $5.2 billion would be invested in another two to three years for mine construction.

Laufmann said the construction phase of Tampakan project could create job opportunities for more than 15,000 Filipinos.

http://business.inquirer.net/money/topstories/view/20090510-204238/Tampakan-preparing-for-market-recovery

[JBmurc]

MANILA, Philippines—An anticipated surge in copper demand presents good prospects for the Tampakan gold-copper mine by the time it goes into production in 2016, an investor in the project said.

“I think the price of copper will be two to three times higher by 2016 (present price is $4,590 per ton or $2.09 per ounce),” Richard Laufmann, CEO of Indophil Resources NL (a minority shareholder in Tampakan), said in an interview.

“Between 2014 and 2016 there may be a gap in supply. Some estimates say that the world will use more copper in the next five years than all that we have used so far since the industrial age,” Laufmann said.

Laufmann said demand for copper would come largely from electricity generation and distribution sector in developing and developed countries.

When the world emerges from the current crisis, countries will need even more copper for electricity to drive domestic infrastructure development.

Developed countries shifting to green technology will also need more copper for such things as electronic cars, mixed alloys for lighter aircraft and wind turbines, he said.

“Copper may run out in 25 years, that’s what some experts say. And no new major reserves have been discovered in 20 years,” he said, explaining that the anticipated gap in supply.

Tampakan is considered as one of the largest untapped copper mineral resources in Southeast Asia, with an estimated 2-billion ton deposit. It is expected to produce an average of 340,000 tons of copper and 350,000 ounces of gold yearly.

Laufmann said at least $50 million will be spent on Tampakan for a final feasibility study to be completed by April 2010.

Another $5.2 billion would be invested in another two to three years for mine construction.

Laufmann said the construction phase of Tampakan project could create job opportunities for more than 15,000 Filipinos.

[JBmurc]

Indophil Resources (IRN, $0.465) Buy
IRN's interest in the Tampakan copper-gold project is valued at A$1.41 per share. It is trading at this
discount because of the complicated joint venture with partner Xstrata plc. The question is, "how much
value can IRN extract from Tampakan?" Sagittarius Mines holds the FTAA covering Tampakan – a
resource of 12.8Mt of copper and 15.2Moz of gold – on Mindanao, the Philippines. Xstrata plc, a major
diversified mining group, holds a 62.5% interest in Sagittarius. Indophil holds 34.23% and is acquiring
the balance of 3.27% from the Alsons Group, an affiliate of the Alcantara and Dominguez families, both
with strong commercial interests in Mindanao, and an IRN shareholder. Xstrata offered A$1.00/IRN
share in May 2008. In June a competing offer of A$1.28 was made by a consortium including the Alsons
Group. Subsequently Xstrata raised its bid to A$1.28, but this bid lapsed. Soon after Xstrata moved to a
19.9% holding, which prevented the competing bid reaching its minimum acceptance level (90%). In
November, shareholders voted overwhelmingly to give the IRN board the right to sell its interest in
Sagittarius. Xstrata claims to hold the marketing rights for Tampakan’s output, while IRN claims the right
to market its share of concentrate. This is a critical value point for any potential acquirer of IRN, or its
holding in Sagittarius. It remains untested in the courts.

[Dr_Who]

Hey JBmure, so you have the link and source of the info?

Very nice summary of what is going on in IRN. :)

I am a happy holder to the end game.

[JBmurc]

Hey JBmure, so you have the link and source of the info?

Very nice summary of what is going on in IRN. :)

I am a happy holder to the end game.

just got it off hotcopper is a extract from ABN Morning Monitor ---with gold up again cash in my account might have to increase my IRN holding again today glad I sold my ROC yesterday an brought a few TRY

[JBmurc]

"Friday, May 29, 2009 | MANILA, PHILIPPINES

Corporate News
Sagittarius Mines, Tampakan town reach deal
GENERAL SANTOS — Foreign-backed Sagittarius Mines, Inc. has reached a four-year deal with the local government of Tampakan, South Cotabato, effectively ending a ban imposed by town officials on the miner’s operations.

The municipal council had passed a resolution imposing a moratorium on the mining operations of Sagittarius, which is exploring huge copper and gold deposits.

Tampakan acting Vice-Mayor Relly A. Leysa told reporters the firm and the local government finally fixed early this week a revised municipal principal agreement that was supposed to be finished last year.

"The major point of that final principal agreement between the firm and Tampakan is the creation of an oversight committee, which shall monitor the responsibilities of both parties," he said.

Sagittarius Mines is also doubling the annual community development commitment fund to the local government to P4 million from just P2 million, Mr. Leysa said.

On top of the commitment fund, the local government is proposing another development fund that the miner and the local government will jointly supervise, the official said, without disclosing the figure.

With the signing of the principal agreement, Mr. Leysa said the resolution barring the firm from operating in the town is considered void.

The acting vice-mayor earlier said the town council ordered the moratorium since Sagittarius Mines did not give due attention to the review and approval of the principal agreement.

The new agreement also establishes two important mechanisms: the committees on land use compensation and crop damage, Mr. Leysa said.

The committees will determine the landowners qualified for remuneration as a result of the company’s operation, the official explained.

Sagittarius Mines, which is largely owned by Xstrata Copper with Australian firm Indophil Resources NL as junior partner, announced last month it would likely use the open-pit mining method in extracting minerals.

The Catholic Church is opposing the Tampakan copper and gold project, which also straddles the towns of Columbio in Sultan Kudarat and Kiblawan in Davao del Sur.

Sagittarius Mines has separate principal agreements with these towns and with the host villages and tribal communities within the mine’s development site.

John B. Arnaldo, Sagittarius Mines spokesman, said the Tampakan agreement, which was signed last Tuesday, will be renewed or assessed every four years. "This is part of our commitment toward the sustainable development of the community. The updated agreement encourages active local government participation and intervention in pursuing the sustainable development of Tampakan," Mr. Arnaldo said.

Based on its extended pre-feasibility study, Sagittarius aims to go into commercial stream by 2016, with capital expenditures reaching at least $5.2 billion.

The Tampakan project contains 12.8 million metric tons of copper and 15.2 million ounces of gold. — Romer S. Sarmiento"

[JBmurc]

IRN close on a high of .515 highest close since late DEC 08 today could well see IRN move away from the 50c resistance now that has been broke

[Ish]

Glad I held on during the slump last week.

I think IRN has some legs in it yet as copper seems to keep moving up.

We could be due for a correction.. although I hope not

[Dr_Who]

Next resistance for IRN is 60 cents. :):):)

Yippeeee...

[JBmurc]

Next resistance for IRN is 60 cents. :):):)

Yippeeee...

It certainly is esp. as I brought a heap the other day for 48.5c slow n steady to $1

[impacman]

Definitely liking the CU company's at the moment. Bought in at 26.5 a few months back and must thank you guys for the thread/initial information. Keen on that $1 if possible - heaps of time though:)

Cheers

[JBmurc]

MICK Gatto has helped negotiate a peace deal between Perth company Cape Lambert Iron Ore and major shareholders billionaire Roman Abramovich and British-based Mick Shemesian.

On February 28 Gatto and business associate John Khoury, under the banner of company Arbitrations and Mediations, flew to London for a secret meeting at The Mayfair hotel to help with a peace deal between the warring parties.

The meeting at The Mayfair was called by Romanian-born businessman Frank Timis — who has business ties with all the parties, but does not own a stake in Cape Lambert — to try to avoid a messy legal battle in the Supreme Court of Western Australia.

Former Shemesian business partner Brett Matich had obtained an injunction from the Supreme Court to stop his old mate selling or voting his Cape Lambert shares.

Gatto confirmed Arbitrations and Mediations had helped broker the peace deal. "Arbitrations and Mediations has gone global, you might say," Gatto said. "If there is a problem that needs sorting out, it doesn't matter where it is. If you fly us there, we'll fix it."

Gatto said the "London job" was one of the "legitimate corporate business deals" that Arbitrations and Mediations was involved in.

Cape Lambert is controlled by executive chairman Tony Sage, owner of the Perth Glory A-League soccer club.

Russia's Evraz, controlled by oil and gas billionaire Roman Abramovich, owns about 16 per cent of the company. According to Forbes magazine, Abramovich is the 51st richest person in the world with a $US8.5 billion fortune. He also owns Chelsea Football Club in England. Shemesian's Hong Kong-based Power United owns a 10.5 per cent stake in Cape Lambert.

The saga began when Cape Lambert sold its namesake iron ore project to China Metallurgical for $400 million at the peak of the resources boom.

In September 2008 Power United called a meeting of shareholders to try to have Sage and directors loyal to him removed from Cape Lambert's board. Power United nominated Melbourne day trader Leo "The Gun" Khouri, who has some well-established links with the Underbelly crowd.

Perth lawyer Martin Bennett, who represented Khouri and 58 investors as part of a class action to recoup funds lost in Opes Prime's collapse, was also on the Shemesian ticket. The board challenge was unsuccessful.

In December a Cyprus-based company called Unicredit Aton International filed a substantial-shareholder notice declaring it owned 36.8 million shares, or 7.28 per cent, of Cape Lambert.

That notice was filed after Cape Lambert hired Thomson Reuters to "flush out" who was behind a series of share purchases from Cyprus. The country's banks are known as "parking stations" for Russian money, and Cape Lambert suspected Evraz was behind the share purchases.

Full Disclosure has been told the meeting at The Mayfair was attended by Gatto, John Khoury, Leo Khouri, Shemesian and a representative of Abramovich. It was effectively "chaired" by Timis.

Spokesman for Timis Alan Frame confirmed his client had "some involvement" in the Cape Lambert negotiations.

Sage confirmed he was in London at the time of the meeting, but said he was there on "separate business" and did not attend the gathering.

At that meeting a deal was brokered for Shemesian to sell his shares to a "neutral" third party that had no ties with either Sage or Abramovich. Matich agreed to drop his lawsuit against Shemesian.

When Full Disclosure put the claims to John Khoury, he replied: "Your mail's pretty good."

Asked which party he and Gatto represented in London, he replied: "Cape Lambert's."

On Monday 50 million Cape Lambert shares worth $17.5 million changed hands, signalling the end of Shemesian's involvement with the company. Cape Lambert told the market it "observed" the sale of 50 million shares, and it had been advised "the shares were bought by a number of British institutions".

No mention at all that the company may have been involved in brokering the deal, or Underbelly types had flown to London to fix the problem.

[Dr_Who]

sp holding up very well.

[impacman]

The only blue arrow in a sea of red!

[JBmurc]

The only blue arrow in a sea of red!

Yeah great to see IRN have such great support can't see it stopping any time soon either

[impacman]

Yeah great to see IRN have such great support can't see it stopping any time soon either

Definitely seems to be something in the air - appeared to be a lot of buyers coming out late in the piece. Could be a bit of movement over the rest of the week - hopefully up:D Some good STX buying to which would have made you happy!

[Dr_Who]

Something is brewing in IRN.

Copper prices were down with copper stocks down, but IRN manage to go up 3.7% to close 56 cents. I am assuming the T/O shouldnt be far away. Here comes $1.30?

[JBmurc]

Definitely seems to be something in the air - appeared to be a lot of buyers coming out late in the piece. Could be a bit of movement over the rest of the week - hopefully up:D Some good STX buying to which would have made you happy!

Well I'm glad to be still holding & buying IRN it really has been under buying pressure since the mid 20c lows

last night the bid that closed at 56c was more than all the offers, I see today bids are all ready coming in at 57c-58c if no sellers wish to step-up an sell IRN buyers are going keep driving this stock upwards back to a fair value $1.30+

It really looks like some big boys want a piece ,allowing the sellers to come out of late early to be smashed later in the day by the buyers ...

As for STX depth looking pretty flat got smashed yesterday with a 1mill seller on open STX need a good annoucement to wake up the buyers again ,long term STX will reward

[Ish]

Well I'm glad to be still holding & buying IRN it really has been under buying pressure since the mid 20c lows

last night the bid that closed at 56c was more than all the offers, I see today bids are all ready coming in at 57c-58c if no sellers wish to step-up an sell IRN buyers are going keep driving this stock upwards back to a fair value $1.30+

It really looks like some big boys want a piece ,allowing the sellers to come out of late early to be smashed later in the day by the buyers ...

As for STX depth looking pretty flat got smashed yesterday with a 1mill seller on open STX need a good annoucement to wake up the buyers again ,long term STX will reward

IRN up to 61.5c now.

I'm almost up 200% on my initial purchase.

Good times eh lads

[Dr_Who]

Holy Shiat!

Sp up over 14% on a down day with all commodities down.

Must be an announcement due out soon.

[impacman]

Well I'm glad to be still holding & buying IRN it really has been under buying pressure since the mid 20c lows

last night the bid that closed at 56c was more than all the offers, I see today bids are all ready coming in at 57c-58c if no sellers wish to step-up an sell IRN buyers are going keep driving this stock upwards back to a fair value $1.30+

It really looks like some big boys want a piece ,allowing the sellers to come out of late early to be smashed later in the day by the buyers ...

As for STX depth looking pretty flat got smashed yesterday with a 1mill seller on open STX need a good annoucement to wake up the buyers again ,long term STX will reward

Another great day for IRN (relative to others at the moment - blue being relatively rare at the mom). Definitely something going on - even if it is just a return to a sensible view as to the value of IRN. TO or otherwise I am not really that fussed as long as the price keeps moving in the right direction. While not related to this thread (I started it yesterday and apologies to thread purists... STX weakness provides some good buying opps from my perspective...could they get better...;)

[Dr_Who]

Indophil Resources

Over to other speculated mining deals, the AFR has reported a rumour that Chinese interests may become interested in Indophil Resources after 20 per cent shareholder and sometime suitor Xstrata turned its focus to Anglo American. Xstrata bought a blocking stake in Indophil and last year, advised by Deutsche Bank, and launched a $426 million cash bid for the company. The move was made as Indophil courted interested from a group of Hong Kong, Filipino, Pakistani and London interests known as the Stanhill consortium and made its own takeover bid for Lion Selection. Lion sold its own 17.8 per cent stake in its predator to Xstrata, which effectively killed both the takeover bid and blocked Stanhill. Xstrata owns the majority of the Tampakan copper project in the Philippines, in which Indophil has a 24.23 per cent stake. To complicate matters further John O'Reilly, a former Lion director, has this month been charged by ASIC for insider trading before the Xstrata move was made. O'Reilly was also a director of Ausenco.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au//bs.nsf/Article/LUNCH-DEALS-pd20090623-TA4UK?OpenDocument

[JBmurc]

just going over IRN again just did some rough gross profit numbers off whats been provided by IRN an current Cu price..

-I come up with a est. gross earnings to IRN of $400million per year once the Tampakan project is up in running....(this of course is at current Cu price,gold @800USD no Moly credit included)

IRN's current market cap=165mill On a rough forward P/E of 5 IRN should well command round a 2bill market cap-Now how much funds are IRN going need to get Tampakan to a producing mine? well OGC also has a project on a smaller scale with a cost round 350mill not far away from Tampakan so say Tampakan costs 500mill IRN will need to have round
-170mill in funds they have 70 mill atm still shouldn't be hard to raise or loan cash with a forward cashflow of 400mill+ per ann

Most likely IRN will get taken over before production still if they don't IRN could well command a $4-$5 sp even with cap raising's by 2013-2014



Indophil Resources has today announced that the Joint Venture partners in the Tampakan
Copper-Gold Project in the southern Philippines have given the formal go-ahead to the
project Final Feasibility Study.
In welcoming this announcement, Indophil’s CEO Richard Laufmann said: “Commitment to
the Final Feasibility Study into the Tampakan project is a major milestone. It brings
construction and first production of this world-class and low-cost copper-gold deposit closer
to realisation.
“At a time when there is a shortage of new and commercially-viable large-scale
undeveloped copper deposits, Tampakan stands out as arguably the best and near-term
undeveloped copper deposit in the world. It is difficult to identify any other new long-life,
low-cost and large-scale copper deposit that will come into production before Tampakan.
“The feasibility study process is targeting an initial 20 years at an average annual
production of 340,000 tonnes of copper and 350,000 ounces of gold with a cash cost
estimate of less than US46 cents per pound of copper after gold credits. This is, by any
measure, highly attractive to the project partners and to Indophil shareholders who have a
34.23% interest in the project through the Company’s holding.”
Mr Laufmann went on to say that Indophil welcomed the appointment of one of the world’s
leading engineering and construction groups in Bechtel to drive the study. Xstrata has a
62.5% interest in the Tampakan project and oversees management.
In regard to the sale process being considered for Indophil’s interest in the Tampakan
project, Mr Laufmann confirmed that Confidentiality Agreements had been signed and a
Data Room opened. He said that Indophil would update the market of any material
developments in this process if and when they occur.

[zero]

JB Iam pretty sure I have seen estimates of $5-6 billion for developing Tampakan mine. Indophil needs around $2b for its share. I assume this is what makes them want to sell their share, finance is to much of a hurdle.

[JBmurc]

JB Iam pretty sure I have seen estimates of $5-6 billion for developing Tampakan mine. Indophil needs around $2b for its share. I assume this is what makes them want to sell their share, finance is to much of a hurdle.

5-6 billion going have to look into costs more closely seems very expensive compared to OGC's copper gold development which is in the same country

[JBmurc]

We concur with the IRN board. Our valuation is $1.47/sh based on a $2bn project producing ~ 200kt of Cu and ~200koz of Au at an operating cost
of <US$1.00/lb at a long term copper price of US$2.00/lb, our spot price valuation is $2.80/sh demonstrating the leverage this project offers.

-So IRN would need to raise 600mill-700mill---IRN have enough cash to fund their share of the FINAL FEASIBILITY STUDY-- IMHO the outcome will the catayst for the takeover of IRN or rising of funds via a major investor to help IRN fund their share to get the mine into production...


“This phase we are embarking on is very significant for SMI and for the future of the Tampakan project. The decision to develop a major copper mine at Tampakan will depend on the outcomes of the feasibility study, which will examine the economic, social and environmental viability of this project,” said SMI President, Peter Forrestal

[Dr_Who]

IRN management have openly told news media that a number of interested parties are taking a close look into the books of IRN. Either it will be for a potential T/O offer or to finance IRNs share in the development of Tampakan. Whatever it is, it is positive news for IRN.

JB, you have a link to the Euro report? Is it a up to date report?

[JBmurc]

IRN management have openly told news media that a number of interested parties are taking a close look into the books of IRN. Either it will be for a potential T/O offer or to finance IRNs share in the development of Tampakan. Whatever it is, it is positive news for IRN.

JB, you have a link to the Euro report? Is it a up to date report?

no the euro report is from mid last yr I found it on IRN website I do see in their latest annoucement they now state 3bill cost for the mine but they also increasing yearly production 300,000t cu 350,000oz au

I guess it's the real unknown risk that keep some investors away from IRN the FINAL FEASIBILITY STUDY won't be finished for awhile yet..

personal I do value at $1.50 min problem is Xstrata with it's 20% S/H could well take us over before the study is finished for alot less ,with IRN currently having 70mill in cash the S/P minus the cash part only values Tampakan round 25c-30c

[zero]

On Indophils site the most recent presentation was for Australia day as part of Mines and Money 2008 on 1 December 2008.

Indophils estimate to develop Tampakan( subject to qualification ).

US$3.9 billion for 44mtpa, a further US$1b by year 5 to move to 66mtpa.

[Dr_Who]

There is no doubt in my mind they will go ahead with the development of Tampakan. This is a very large Tier one low cost mine. The fact that Xstrata was prepare to T/O IRN at $1.28 tells me they are prepare to go ahead with the development. The final feasibility study is only a formality.

Xstrata is all cashed up and hunting for T/O potential. Takeover play is a chess game. The time will come when/if one makes its move the others will follow. Long term investors will be handsomely rewarded.

[JBmurc]

10:49:13 AM 0.490 10,000
10:45:20 AM 0.490 10,000
10:45:20 AM 0.490 5,000
10:45:20 AM 0.490 10,000
10:44:00 AM 0.490 90,000
10:44:00 AM 0.490 10,000
10:42:50 AM 0.485 5,000
10:40:32 AM 0.485 5,000
10:40:32 AM 0.485 20,000
10:38:23 AM 0.480 10,000

Bring on the takeover I sick of waiting

[Dr_Who]

You could be right there JB.

Someone is on the market mopping up the shares like there is no tomorrow.
:eek:

[Ish]

Copper up over $2.50

[Dr_Who]

Copper up over $2.50

Bloody incredible!

If it can stay up above $250, then it is north from there.

[JBmurc]

IRN should see more solid accumulation today 50c+

[Dr_Who]

Funny how the Chinese have nearly finished stocking and now the rest of the world's turn to re stock their reserves. This will continue for some time yet. I may fire an email to the IRN board.

[JBmurc]

Funny how the Chinese have nearly finished stocking and now the rest of the world's turn to re stock their reserves. This will continue for some time yet. I may fire an email to the IRN board.

I tried ringing them awhile back company sec was out an never rang me back

[JBmurc]

CASH BALANCE
Indophil’s cash balance at the end of the June quarter was
$60.186 million (prev $66.666m), with the bulk of expenditure in
the period ($4.949m) committed to Indophil’s share of the Tampakan
study process that is being conducted by Tampakan’s project
manager, Xstrata. With current cash at hand, Indophil’s cash position
remains sufficient to meet its budgeted share (US$28m) of the
Tampakan project costs through to completion of the FFS.

[Dr_Who]

Interesting comment that they have opened their books to potential buyers and signed confidential agreements.

The market is not factoring a potential T/O price which is rather interesting. Maybe the market doesnt believe what IRN management have to say. I am overweight on resources, if not I would buy more IRN.

Bring on the $1.30 T/O offer. I am happy to let it go at $1.30.

Copper has gone mental overnight. Looks like going higher from here.

[JBmurc]

Interesting comment that they have opened their books to potential buyers and signed confidential agreements.

The market is not factoring a potential T/O price which is rather interesting. Maybe the market doesnt believe what IRN management have to say. I am overweight on resources, if not I would buy more IRN.

Bring on the $1.30 T/O offer. I am happy to let it go at $1.30.

Copper has gone mental overnight. Looks like going higher from here.

Yeah I'd be surprised If IRN or IRN tampakan's interest hasn't been taken over before the FFS is finished ,an if not till the FFS is done then all the higher price we will get $1.28 is min more likely $1.50

good to see IRN have the cash for FFS, an with 30mill left in the kitty for a new set of drilling on their other Au-Cu prime Philippine permits.

[Xerof]

Wasn't the last offer made during at the peak of the commodities bubble?

I think getting the same level again is a bit of a stretch, but you're right, it should go for more than current price.

It is still a buyers market - haven't seen too many t/o offers for juniors pitched at tremendous premiums

[JBmurc]

Wasn't the last offer made during at the peak of the commodities bubble?

I think getting the same level again is a bit of a stretch, but you're right, it should go for more than current price.

It is still a buyers market - haven't seen too many t/o offers for juniors pitched at tremendous premiums

-“At a time when there is a shortage of new and commercially-viable large-scale
undeveloped copper deposits, Tampakan stands out as arguably the best and near-term
undeveloped copper deposit in the world. It is difficult to identify any other new long-life,
low-cost and large-scale copper deposit that will come into production before Tampakan

Now whats 34% ownership of 340,000t cu 350,000oz au annual production for 20yrs + Worth ?? 300mill

World central banks can just print money out of thin air the FED has been giving away free billions China has masses of USD One thing they really want is major Copper supply???
I really think IRN is worth alot more than-197mill

[Lego_Man]

If markets are efficient and are pricing in the prospect of a $1.20+ takeover offer, why is IRN trading at less than half that?

It's either the mother of all no-brainers or we are overlooking something pretty major.

I hold.

[Xerof]

I'm not disagreeing with you that IRN is probably undervalued JB, just making the point that it is very unlikely in the short term for last years prices to be seen again, and purchasers will be more reticent in bidding levels.

[suntboy]

you have to admire the management of lion for taking the lower price last year.
smart cookies

[JBmurc]

you have to admire the management of lion for taking the lower price last year.
smart cookies

Yeah maybe still GOLD an Copper are both doing fairly well off late
the final feasibility study should add value to the unknown component of Tamapan an give a clearer idea of value If it comes down to it IRN can aways farm down their interest if no one whats the piece of the world's #1 new large low cost copper gold mine project

[Dr_Who]

If markets are efficient and are pricing in the prospect of a $1.20+ takeover offer, why is IRN trading at less than half that?

It's either the mother of all no-brainers or we are overlooking something pretty major.

I hold.


The market is never logical or right in its assessment of value, hence that's how one can make money picking under valued stocks. I recall buying PPP last year at 21 cents when their net cash holding was nearly 30 cents. PPP today is trading at 60 cents.

Copper have just hit $262 over night. Have broken the $250 and heading north. :)

[Ish]

Copper up to $2.74!

Surely we must be overdue for some IRN price action.

[Dr_Who]

Copper up to $2.74!

Surely we must be overdue for some IRN price action.

Freaking amazing!

I have been bullish on commodities, esp copper this year, but I never thought copper would go over $250.

IRN is under short term pressure from LST selling their holding. Once thats gone, it will head north and hopefully corporate activities soon to follow.

[JBmurc]

Yeah IRN should recieve some buying pressure today massive copper rise could well be over $3 later in the week

looks like most market commods are up the USD looks to be the weak thing round

[Dr_Who]

If copper continues to climb and IRN doesnt perform, I may even buy more at these levels. But for now I am over weight on commocities and dont want to load up anymore.

[JBmurc]

If copper continues to climb and IRN doesnt perform, I may even buy more at these levels. But for now I am over weight on commocities and dont want to load up anymore.

just brought some more today @50c the guys on HC have done some numbers on IRN makes it look like the cheapest copper play on the ASX by a large margin

-While in Indophil’s Tampakan sale process . . .
ºº Confidentiality Agreements are signed
ºº And the data room opens

with copper now over $6000usd I'm sure the data room is full of majors looking very closely at a takeover of IRN could well happen before FFS is finished

[Dusty]

Wow copper up 3.7% to 6138 in Londonso another good day tomorrow hopefully, glad to seen IRN finish above 50c today even though it was down, lower lows and higher highs.

[Dusty]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32272577

Interesting albeit short interview about copper, sees demand in America starting to pick up with housing market recovery and GDP stabilisation to carry prices higher even if stockpiling by China slows

[Dr_Who]

Copper $282 :eek:

[Dusty]

Acorn Capital just increased their interest, another $3m.

[impacman]

Up 4.5 c already - sell side looks to be drying up. Could be a run is about to begin - again.

[Dr_Who]

All good things come to those that have patience.

JBmure wants $1.50 while I am happy with $1.30. ;)

[impacman]

All good things come to those that have patience.

JBmure wants $1.50 while I am happy with $1.30. ;)


I'd certainly be happy with either:D

[Dr_Who]

I ve noticed one big buyer constantly mopping up stock when available.

Something's up, maybe? :)

[Ish]

Certainly wouldnt complain with either figure.

Fantastic day for IRN today.

[Dr_Who]

If it can crack above 60 cents and stays up, the next stop will be 80 cents. :)

[impacman]

If it can crack above 60 cents and stays up, the next stop will be 80 cents. :)

62c close on good volumes. Test will be tomorrow - kinda think some degree of retrace in the markets generally is due (having said that have been thinking that for a few months now). Like the balance in two of my holdings though - PEN down .003 on profit taking and IRN up 6c to counter. It is quite exciting when everyting is going the right way generally.

Cheers

[Ish]

Copper up to $2.88 dont be suprised if we have another up day ;-)

[JBmurc]

All good things come to those that have patience.

JBmure wants $1.50 while I am happy with $1.30. ;)

Well if the takeover of IRN comes at 1.30 I won't complain to much as I paid as low as 23.5c think my average is 30c now so 300% within a yr be very nice

[Lego_Man]

JBMurc's portfolio ideas are proving lucrative for me:

TRY
CFE
PEN
IRN

Timing was a little bit off base on TRY, but my only regret on the others is that i didnt put more coin in.

[JBmurc]

JBMurc's portfolio ideas are proving lucrative for me:

TRY
CFE
PEN
IRN

Timing was a little bit off base on TRY, but my only regret on the others is that i didnt put more coin in.


Yeah much like me lego you will getting richer by the week went away to work for 10days came back my portfilo's up another $37,000 if things keep the way their going I'll have a new dept free house here worth 1mill+ no bad for low ed 31yr old

another share to keep an eye on lego is CCU is risker than the above but could well be a top 10 pure silver miner within a few yrs

[Lego_Man]

I have some CCU in the drawer, it's not doing much exciting at the moment but that's to be expected. I'd like to see things hot up as the feasability study comes closer to completion.

Pissed off i didnt pick up more TRY when it was back down to ~1.20. I still only hold my 1.65 package. Oh well, another day...

[Ish]

And its off again! reached 67c at one point and that 500k seller got taken out.

exciting times

[Dr_Who]

I just have a funny feeling something positive is up with IRN.

I ve noticed stocks being mopped up when available. The movement of the shares these last few weeks have been impressive. Last year when Xstrata made a hostile move on IRN the sp was 70-80 cents.

I am hoping JBmure will fly me up some crayfish from Bluff before the end of this year. :D :D

[JBmurc]

I just have a funny feeling something positive is up with IRN.

I ve noticed stocks being mopped up when available. The movement of the shares these last few weeks have been impressive. Last year when Xstrata made a hostile move on IRN the sp was 70-80 cents.

I am hoping JBmure will fly me up some crayfish from Bluff before the end of this year. :D :D

well if it happens soon the fish may come from milford way Doc might send ya one big live buck

[Dr_Who]

Not Long now comrades. :):):)

INDOPHIL RESOURCES The stunning turnaround in copper prices in response to the easing of the global financial crisis has worked wonders on the share price of Melbourne-based Indophil Resources, a partner in the Xstrata-managed Tampakan copper/gold deposit in the Philippines.

The stock put on another 5¢ on Friday to close at 67¢ which is a far cry from the 21¢ a share low back in late January.

Copper's 86 per cent rebound in the last six months from $US1.50 a pound to $US2.80 a pound has been the main driver in Indophil's resurgence.

But some potential corporate action is also at work.

Indophil has opened a data room for prospective buyers of its 34.23 per cent stake in Tampakan, one of the world's biggest undeveloped copper deposits.

Several tier-one companies and sovereign investments funds have signed confidentiality agreements to get access to the data room.

While it will take time for any deal to be reached, it could well be worth the wait given the sheer size of Tampakan - a likely $US5 billion development capable of producing 340,000 tonnes of copper and 350,000 ounces of gold annually for more than 20 years.

Indophil's current market capitalisation values its share of Tampakan's riches at all of A2.2¢ a pound of copper in-the-ground.

That is a fraction of the A7¢ a pound implied in recent copper asset deals elsewhere in the world and the A20¢ a pound that Xstrata - it's got 62.5 per cent of Tampakan - is considering accepting for its interest in the El Morro copper project in Chile from Chinese interests.

Indophil chief executive Richard Laufmann isn't giving anything away on the Tampakan sale process.

But it's worth noting that Laufmann's new business cards are double-sided affairs, English on one side, and Chinese on the other.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/chinese-to-be-joined-by-indian-resource-raiders-20090816-emek.html?page=1

[evilroyrule]

hey doc, if its up 130% since april, still worth jumping in now? i guess its good for another 20% at leaST

[Dr_Who]

hey doc, if its up 130% since april, still worth jumping in now? i guess its good for another 20% at leaST

Look mate, I have no idea where it will go in the short term unless you have a crystal ball.

I am a long term investor in IRN and bought at lower levels. JBmure and I believe this company is worth north of $1.30 if there is a T/O.

[impacman]

Still green in a sea of red - atm.

[Dr_Who]

Indophil's current market capitalisation values its share of Tampakan's riches at all of A2.2¢ a pound of copper in-the-ground.

That is a fraction of the A7¢ a pound implied in recent copper asset deals elsewhere in the world and the A20¢ a pound that Xstrata - it's got 62.5 per cent of Tampakan - is considering accepting for its interest in the El Morro copper project in Chile from Chinese interests.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/chinese-to-be-joined-by-indian-resource-raiders-20090816-emek.html

El Morro mine T/O

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/xstrata-plots-700m-sale-of-chiles-el-morro-mine-1769382.html

[Ish]

Upto 71c today.

No further news but it looks like people are catching on.

This is nearly my biggest holding now.. first got in at 22.5c cheers JBmurc and dr_who

[JBmurc]

Ines Schumacher | Wed, 19 Aug 2009 11:58
[miningmx.com] -- THE AVERAGE copper price in 2009 will receive a boost from an expected strong performance in the final quarter of the year, said metals research group GFMS, which says it is bullish for the metal's prospects over the next three years.

GFMS previously forecast a full-year average copper price of $4,500/tonne, but with expectations of prices topping $6,500 in the fourth quarter of 2009, GFMS revised its annual estimate to $4,900.

“Copper has raised the bar in the recent base metal sector rally. We were taken a little bit by surprise by the extent of the rally,” said GFMS Metals Consulting managing director Neil Buxton.

Copper is currently trading above $6,100. Copper prices more than doubled from a low of $3,051 in January to a high of $6,419 in early-August.

GFMS lowered its 2009 surplus production estimate to 245,000 tonnes from its earlier estimate of 441,000 tonnes.

Demand is expected to strengthen significantly in 2010 and GFMS forecast an 88,000 tonne deficit in 2010 and larger shortfalls in 2011 and 2012 of 121,000 tonnes and 176,000 tonnes respectively.

Buxton said a strong recovery in consumption and slower mine production will drive copper prices up over the next three years.

“We remain fairly bullish about copper’s prospects for the next three years with the lack of new mine supply coming through,” Buxton said.

GFMS forecasts that copper prices will top $7,500 in 2010 with an average price of $6,500 for that year, with prices rising each year to end-2012.

“Copper stood out even in the previous bull markets. It is essentially supply driven, not demand driven, and this is still the case,” Buxton said.

GFMS expects some profit-taking by investors to drive copper prices down in the short-term. “There is some investor interest in copper, but copper will continue to be driven by supply fundamentals. It is not considered a currency like gold is,” Buxton said.

Unreported inventories from China may also begin to weigh on the local market, triggering a fall in Chinese copper imports and subsequent rise in copper stocks. However, this trend is considered to be short-lived

[Dr_Who]

We should have a contest to see who will eventually end up with IRN and/or Tampakan.

My guess will be the Chinese will bid for IRN's share in Tampakan. This will follow by a bidding contest with Xstrata. No doubt Xstrata will want full control of Tampakan.

[JBmurc]

We should have a contest to see who will eventually end up with IRN and/or Tampakan.

My guess will be the Chinese will bid for IRN's share in Tampakan. This will follow by a bidding contest with Xstrata. No doubt Xstrata will want full control of Tampakan.

yeah I reckon who ever does takeover IRN it will be at a premium be it chinese or Xstrata or one of other majors who see the massive value of Tampakan
As IRN turned down 1.28 I'm picking closer to 1.50



Off HC--


"While it will take time for any deal to be reached, it could well be worth the wait given the sheer size of Tampakan - a likely $US5 billion development capable of producing 340,000 tonnes of copper and 350,000 ounces of gold annually for more than 20 years.

Indophil's current market capitalisation values its share of Tampakan's riches at all of A2.2¢ a pound of copper in-the-ground.

That is a fraction of the A7¢ a pound implied in recent copper asset deals elsewhere in the world and the A20¢ a pound that Xstrata - it's got 62.5 per cent of Tampakan - is considering accepting for its interest in the El Morro copper project in Chile from Chinese interests.

Indophil chief executive Richard Laufmann isn't giving anything away on the Tampakan sale process

[Dusty]

Looking forward to the Monday morning opening, Copper up and Directional Movement suggesting strength in the recent uptrend could be pushing 80c resistence level soon.

Xstrata also trending up in the UK, Merrill Lynch recently upgraded to Buy, if you think Tampakan could as big as predicted they have got to be worth a look at 834.5p seriously discounted from 4,400 may 08 highs.

[Dr_Who]

Hey Dusty, do you have a link to the Merrill upgrade?

I have been keeping an eye on Xstrata for some time ow, maybe time to look at buying some.

[Dusty]

Hey Dusty, do you have a link to the Merrill upgrade?

I have been keeping an eye on Xstrata for some time ow, maybe time to look at buying some.

Have a look at this Doc, got most of the brokers on there including ING 13th August also upgrading to buy and boosting target prices to 1175p from 775p (rather large upgrade)

http://www.intermarketstocks.com/imsmembers/imssearchresult.php?search_term=xstrata&search=++Search++

Would be getting in myself but brokerage is putting me off a bit with the funds I would allocate

[Dr_Who]

Cheers Dusty.

Investors are also forgetting that IRN have some very good potential drilling assets on its books apart from Tampakan. If they strike any of these drills it can be huge for IRN. The valuation of $1.30-$1.50 is only for Tampakan.

http://www.indophil.com/philippines_ex.asp

[JBmurc]

IRN off to a great start today 72c atm could well reach over 80c this week glad have topped up back in the 40's

[Dusty]

hey doc, if its up 130% since april, still worth jumping in now? i guess its good for another 20% at leaST

So in answer to your question, Yes it was worth jumping in. Did you take the plunge evilroyrule.

IRN up 4.5c to 72.5c in early trading

[evilroyrule]

So in answer to your question, Yes it was worth jumping in. Did you take the plunge evilroyrule.

IRN up 4.5c to 72.5c in early trading

actually to my great embarrassment i didnt. doc made it sound like i was crashing his party so wandered off down another track with HZN. Truth told i am still in HZN and did buy into IRN today. better late than never i guess. i sold out of my NZX holings (exceptn of NPX) to enter. so now i have a swag of oilers. diversification not!

[Dr_Who]

Copper trading above $290. :eek:

[Dr_Who]

The way IRN sp is moving, i have a gut feeling something positive is up.

sp 73 cents :)

Bring on the T/O offer.

[Dr_Who]

What beauty :)

[evilroyrule]

charging along today i see. something must be up?

[Dr_Who]

charging along today i see. something must be up?


Holy Shiat... 76 cents bid! :)

Hardly any sellers left on the sell side.

[Ish]

Really showing some strength to start the day

[Dr_Who]

IRN should be up again today. Both gold and copper up overnight.

Gold $1,000 again. :eek:

[Dr_Who]

Here comes Xstrata.

Xstrata asks bank advisers to study new bid for Lonmin

By MarketWatch

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Mining company Xstrata PLC (XTA.LN) is considering reviving its bid for South African platinum miner Lonmin PLC (LMI.LN), and has instructed advisers JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank to study a potential takeover, The Observer reports Sunday.

Xstrata made a hostile offer for Lonmin in 2008 and built a 25% stake in the company before withdrawing the bid in the wake of the financial crisis.

Under Takeover Panel rules, Xstrata can make a new bid after Oct. 2, which could be a mix of shares and cash, the paper says.

A bid for Lonmin would likely force Xstrata to abandon its pursuit of Anglo-American PLC (AAL.LN), the paper says.

[Dr_Who]

IRN conclusively broken throu 80 cents resistance, now $1.00 maybe the next stop.

[JBmurc]

IRN conclusively broken throu 80 cents resistance, now $1.00 maybe the next stop.

You still be happy with 1.28 takeover Doc 1.50 min IMHO esp. as the market likes IRN assets enough to keep the buying pressure strong from the 20's takeover buyers will have to pay a premium

[Dr_Who]

Yeah mate. One thing I have learnt from years of investing in both properties and equities is not to be greedy.

If they launched T/O and offer $1.30, I will likely sell, unless there are competing buyers, then I would wait for the game to play out. ;)

[JBmurc]

Yeah mate. One thing I have learnt from years of investing in both properties and equities is not to be greedy.

If they launched T/O and offer $1.30, I will likely sell, unless there are competing buyers, then I would wait for the game to play out. ;)

I think their will be more than one party that wants IRN's Tampakan share could be a dutch auction between Asian interest wants an Xstrata's want to keep complete control of the massive resource

[impacman]

Don't know what they are doing in that data room but I like it.:D With SP going like this the longer a bidder leaves it the more they are going to have to pay.

[Dr_Who]

Have to say that I didnt expect the sp to hit 90 cents so soon. Something must be up in that data room. Maybe an orgy of negotiations, by the look of the sp movement.

At this rate, the sp may even hit $1.30 before a bid is made. :)

Hey Impacman, just out of curiousity, how did you come to buy into IRN? This is not a stock people know about let alone follow.

[Lego_Man]

Don't know what they are doing in that data room but I like it.

Whatever it is, i'd pay to see a porno of it.

[Dr_Who]

Good volume traded today... 5.1 million shares.

[impacman]

Thanks for that post Dr. I have been watching this thread and doing a bit of research on IRN.... (Feb 09)

Cheers,

I-man:)

Hi Dr. Was yourself and JB who first perked my interest in IRN and have been following since - thanks for that. Took a position in March at 26.5 avg. You could be due more than one cray the way this is going:)

Cheers,

I-man

[Dusty]

Interesting article regarding sovereign risk in the Philippines

http://www.theage.com.au/business/murder-crushes-philippine-mining-hopes-20090921-fynx.html

[impacman]

Thanks O Dusty. Soveriegn risk is an issue but hopefully will have improved prior to Tampakan production in 2016. From what I can gather there are periods of relative quietness on the "local hostiles front" with interruptions like the one in the described in the Age occurring from time to time - rather than a continuous wild west environment.

I-man

[Dr_Who]

Interesting article regarding sovereign risk in the Philippines

http://www.theage.com.au/business/murder-crushes-philippine-mining-hopes-20090921-fynx.html

There are more sovereign risks in NZ with the Treaty than in the Philippines.

[impacman]

There are more sovereign risks in NZ with the Treaty than in the Philippines.

Thats another way of looking at it.

[Dusty]

From what I can gather there are periods of relative quietness on the "local hostiles front" with interruptions like the one in the described in the Age occurring from time to time - rather than a continuous wild west environment.

I-man

Yes very much so I-man, article did make alot of assumptions and the wording made the risk sound larger than it actually is but as 100% of IRN's projects are in the Phillipines thought you guys might be interested.

Completly unrelated to the article I took profits on IRN,
avg entry 37.5 - sold at 90c
Still got some because of the TO prospect but because of work and the time difference I decided to reduce my exposure.

[impacman]

Good to see you have done well on IRN. I'm in for the haul but must say 90c was looking tempting:)

Cheers

[impacman]

92.5 (or there abouts) - up 6c. Not sure of the driver other than usual with IRN. Happy to take the positive for the day. Dataroom nearing the end maybe?

[Ish]

I see posted on hotcopper that xstrata has sold another development for $500m or there abouts.

That surely isnt a bad thing ;-)

[impacman]

I see posted on hotcopper that xstrata has sold another development for $500m or there abouts.

That surely isnt a bad thing ;-)

Yes I have seen that too. Gives them some funds to apply to IRN - pehaps. Hard to tell but certainly all indications are that IRN still has some way to go over the next 1 - 12 months (until they are taken out - or their share in Tampakan is).

Are we going to see you in Auckland Ish? Perhaps you could convince Serpie and UU to do a road trip - SC already has a plan:D

[Ish]

Yes I have seen that too. Gives them some funds to apply to IRN - pehaps. Hard to tell but certainly all indications are that IRN still has some way to go over the next 1 - 12 months (until they are taken out - or their share in Tampakan is).

Are we going to see you in Auckland Ish? Perhaps you could convince Serpie and UU to do a road trip - SC already has a plan:D

Wouldnt mind a trip up - work offered to send me up for training next week sometime.. but I am now on study leave for the next two horrible weeks to prepare for my final Chartered Accountancy exam.

[Corporate]

Wouldnt mind a trip up - work offered to send me up for training next week sometime.. but I am now on study leave for the next two horrible weeks to prepare for my final Chartered Accountancy exam.

Ish me too! Finding it very hard to study!

[Ish]

Ish me too! Finding it very hard to study!

Heh yeah same.. however I imagine that will change soon once we get into the business end of the study break.

[Dr_Who]

Whats all these accountants doing investing in high risk stock like IRN? LOL :p

[Ish]

Whats all these accountants doing investing in high risk stock like IRN? LOL :p

Gotta risk some to get some ;)

[buns]

Pretty random, I'm also sitting PCE2 in a few weeks.. How you guys going? Did you guys pick up any MVN shares? I think they were around 1.25 at the start of PAS.

Seems the infomation overload has begun, Every day a new bible (theory type) seems to float around..

Funny if the case study was on IRN.

[Ish]

I think once you have seen one theory bible you have seen them all.. ive been trying to cut out pages as they are too damn long.

[Xerof]

You guys holding IRN might be interested in this....

Xstrata just announced they won't be making a T/O offer for Anglo, and had this to say:


Mick Davis, Xstrata plc Chief Executive, commented:

"I remain very confident in Xstrata's standalone prospects. Decisive actions have been taken over the past twelve months to reposition our businesses lower on the cost curve. Our portfolio is exposed to early stage, infrastructure commodities, in particular copper and thermal coal. We are continuing to invest in our strong organic growth pipeline, with projects representing over $7.5 billion of investment currently in the construction phase. In total, the development of our growth pipeline will deliver an uplift of approximately 50% over Xstrata's current production profile by 2013. Xstrata is optimally positioned and has the momentum to benefit from global economic recovery."


Make what you want of it, but seems to me they will look to take up a lot of the options they have, including the big T

Some of the fans of NKP over on the other channel reckon they might have their mits on NKP's Platinum project in Africa - perhaps they grab everything......

[impacman]

Wouldnt mind a trip up - work offered to send me up for training next week sometime.. but I am now on study leave for the next two horrible weeks to prepare for my final Chartered Accountancy exam.

Good luck with the exams all.

[Corporate]

I think once you have seen one theory bible you have seen them all.. ive been trying to cut out pages as they are too damn long.

Same :-) There is one in particular that is 397 pages :eek::eek:

It is funny how the bibles are meant to be kept so close. I've got pretty much all the major's (except KPMG).

[Corporate]

Pretty random, I'm also sitting PCE2 in a few weeks.. How you guys going? Did you guys pick up any MVN shares? I think they were around 1.25 at the start of PAS.

Seems the infomation overload has begun, Every day a new bible (theory type) seems to float around..

Funny if the case study was on IRN.


I think when we first got the case they hit 1.04 or 1.08..I remember thinking. Damn MVN seems relatively "cheap". Figured they'd take more of a hit with the downturn in the housing market.

I'm finding there is way to information, and also trying to work a balance between having a high level understanding of everything and getting into the detail of some topics.


EDIT: Sorry IRN holders...shouldn't be posting this stuff on your thread.

[Dr_Who]

Are you guys gonna use IRN as an example in your exam? LOL

Hey, did you guys crunch the numbers for IRN or just went with gut feeling?

I failed stage one account at uni, many years back, once upon a time long long time ago. ;)

[Ish]

I dont tend to crunch numbers for stocks.. seriously so many people do that and it doesnt neccesarily help them.

If somebody else posts a caclulation I might analyse it briefly, but mostly to make judgements about whether a poster knows his/her stuff (which I think is pretty useful to know) I do however look at overall economic conditions.

And yeah sorry for spamming the IRN thread heh

[JBmurc]

"China's Zijin Mining Group is eyeing up to $1 billion in investments in gold and copper projects in the Philippines within five years, the Philippine environment secretary said on Thursday

I believe we'll see a major annoucement soon that will lift the SP 20c+

[evilroyrule]

hi jb, i got 50k for 4 weeks between ppty settlements, in a two horse race and over that period wld you back cfe or irn? sure as eggs aint putting in it the bank!