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View Full Version : Predictions for NZD:USD in 2009



stevesnz
06-11-2008, 06:12 PM
Bonus marks if you can give an explanation why you voted a certain way

Xerof
11-11-2008, 02:49 PM
Not surprising to see a normal distribution curve.....not a lot of insight for you steve

I am the lowballer on the basis of the 8 year cycle for NZD being part way complete. As is usual it took a long time to turn but turn it has, and over time we should revisit the very late 30's again.

I have prattled on elsewhere ad nauseum about deleveraging continuing......not wrong so far

DYOR

Nevl
09-12-2008, 02:40 PM
The Kiwi seems to be tied to the Dow at the moment. Am looking for this pattern to change as it is hard to predict what will happen when it is driven more by profit warnings than the actual Kiwi economy.

Still expect the Kiwi to remain on the downside. Anyone willing to back John Key's call?

Aussie
09-12-2008, 07:21 PM
I think the USD rally is a fake. It's a demand for dollars created by massive international de-leveraging to pay back USD denominated loans. Once that stops and the fundamentals come back into play the markets will realize what an incredibly flawed currency the USD is.

Quantitative Easing by the Fed will be the eventual death of the dollar, they can never borrow enough in the international markets by selling Treasuries at negative interest rates to cover their deficits which are expected to top $2Trillion in this fiscal year. That's a FIVE fold increase in the deficit over last year! So they will print - massively.

I think the AUD and NZD could fall lower in the short term but go higher over the longer term, unless the USD collapses completely. In that case all bets are off since it's the "reserve" paper that backs our local "paper". Ditto for most of the world's currencies. There's only one real escape . . . got gold?

AMR
09-12-2008, 07:41 PM
I think the USD rally is a fake. It's a demand for dollars created by massive international de-leveraging to pay back USD denominated loans. Once that stops and the fundamentals come back into play the markets will realize what an incredibly flawed currency the USD is.

Quantitative Easing by the Fed will be the eventual death of the dollar, they can never borrow enough in the international markets by selling Treasuries at negative interest rates to cover their deficits which are expected to top $2Trillion in this fiscal year. That's a FIVE fold increase in the deficit over last year! So they will print - massively.

I think the AUD and NZD could fall lower in the short term but go higher over the longer term, unless the USD collapses completely. In that case all bets are off since it's the "reserve" paper that backs our local "paper". Ditto for most of the world's currencies. There's only one real escape . . . got gold?

Then why is gold only $770 instead of $1200?

You could be right though, the USD index seems to be posting a heads and shoulders top.

Aussie
09-12-2008, 08:15 PM
Then why is gold only $770 instead of $1200?

Good question AMR, is there any other commodity on the face of the earth that is trading at a lower price that it did almost 30 years ago? Why is that? I think Bill Buckler of The Privateer sums it up quite well . . .

http://www.the-privateer.com

In any discussion of the future of Gold, or of the price of Gold, the first thing that must be realized is that Gold is a POLITICAL metal. In the true meaning of the word, its price is "governed".

This is so for the very simple reason that Gold in its historical role as a currency is fundamentally incompatible with the modern worldwide financial system.

Up until August 15, 1971, there has never in history been an era when no paper currency was linked to Gold. The history of money is replete with instances of coin clipping, printing, debt defaults, and the other attendant ills of currency debasement. In all other eras of history, people could always escape to other currencies, whose Gold backing remained intact. But since 1971, there is NO escape because NO paper currency has any link to Gold.

All of the economic, monetary, and financial upheaval since 1971 is a direct result of this fact.

The global paper currency system is very young. It depends for its continued functioning on the BELIEF that the debt upon which it is based will, someday, be repaid. The one thing, above all others, that could shake that faith, and therefore the foundations of the modern financial system itself, is a rise (especially a sharp rise) in the U.S. Dollar price of Gold.

Hard to say with the USD though - it's rise these past few months has been nothing short of miraculous.