Usd/hkd

[AMR]

I took a look at this cross today and found that it has held 7.75 for months. On further investigation it seems the HK government has guaranteed this level as a minimum.

Wouldn't then the HKD be effectively a one-way bet to go long? Or am I missing something here?

[arco]

Give it a go AMR - what have you got to loose?

[AMR]

Only an Icelandic krona-style collapse I suppose! Might give this a shot then...they survived the Asian crisis of 1998, they'll survive this with their billions of US reserves.

[peat]

USD/HKD is now a bizarre chart.
There hasnt been much in it for longers - that support level held for months but this year hasnt been touched. So I guess the selling pressure isnt that great
insufficient interest rate differential to exploit.

[peat]

well the floor lasted all through the year but clearly something changed and when there was a corrective continuation pattern I thought time to jump.

[peat]

according to Wiki theres a managed exchange rate

__________________________________________________ _________

HKMonetary Authority set up upper and lower guaranteed limit since 18 May 2005

US$1:HK$7.75–7.85 (May 2005 onwards)
__________________________________________________ _________


so I guess the strategy is pretty obvious

I'm long from 7.7559 , lets see how close it gets to 7.85 , that would be 1000 pips!

[peat]

a pennant is compressing on the daily - should break on the upside.

[Dr_Who]

Isnt HKD pegged to the USD?

[peat]

you will see if you read back a bit through this thread that I discussed this ... (talking to myself again)

its not fixed, its managed by the Hong KongMonetary Authority