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outspoken
18-01-2009, 05:18 PM
Hi all

I'm relatively new to trading and as such have been reading alot and searching for information via the internet. I'm managing to get a good handle on things so far but I feel I could use a little one on one coaching.

Rather than pay $10,000 for a course I wondered if there might be someone here who is willing to share their knowledge with me? I don't know if you would be expecting payment, or just happy to enhance another persons life with your ability to guide and teach.

I'm not even sure what role a mentor might play but trading being a lonely business I've always been interested in, I'd like to get my feet wet and feel I would do better learning off a seasoned trader/investor rather than trying by myself and making costly mistakes.

Of course I check in here regularly and search the forum for information, news, opinions and tips.

Any advice can be posted here, or if you might be prepared to help PM me.

Please post any helpful reading you have done that would benefit not only myself but any other newbies.

Thanks in advance

duncan macgregor
18-01-2009, 07:09 PM
I will tell you what to do if you promise to obey my rules.
!, only communication between us is on share trader for all to see.
2, You must disclose your buy price within 24 hrs of buying.
3, You must disclose your sell price within 24 hrs of selling.
4, you must disclose your real name as i do.
5, You must disclose your intended portfolio budget.
6, you must meet your tax liabilities in an honest manner.
7, If i say dont buy that means sit on the side lines and wait.
8, If you break any of the above rules or object to any one of them then count me out.
Macdunk

shasta
18-01-2009, 07:28 PM
Hi all

I'm a 35 year old single white Kiwi male.
I'm relatively new to trading and as such have been reading alot and searching for information via the internet. I'm managing to get a good handle on things so far but I feel I could use a little one on one coaching.

Rather than pay $10,000 for a course I wondered if there might be someone here who is willing to share their knowledge with me? I don't know if you would be expecting payment, or just happy to enhance another persons life with your ability to guide and teach.

I'm not even sure what role a mentor might play but trading being a lonely business I've always been interested in, I'd like to get my feet wet and feel I would do better learning off a seasoned trader/investor rather than trying by myself and making costly mistakes.

Of course I check in here regularly and search the forum for information, news, opinions and tips.

Any advice can be posted here, or if you might be prepared to help PM me.

Please post any helpful reading you have done that would benefit not only myself but any other newbies.

Thanks in advance

Oh, P.S I'm in Albany, Auckland.

I'd be highly skeptical of anyone on here "offering to help for payment", that would infringe on the terms of membership for a start, this is a forum & plenty of people will answer your questions

Before you even contemplate "trading", are there several important questions you must consider/answer.

1. Trading requires total discipline (which after years in the markets i do not have, though i'm a couple of years younger than yourself!)

2. Are you working & wanting to trade on the side, or wanting to trade fulltime?

3. Can you stomach losing all of your capital? (What are your time frames, goals etc). Over trading &/or getting stopped out alot can cost a bit in brokerage, especially if you have limited capital to start with.

4. Are there any immediate needs for any of your capital to be deplored elsewhere (debt, taxes, family etc).

5. Do you have a basic grasp of TA/FA, stop losses, & the general market mechanics. (An interest in economics is always handy, re global events)

6. What exchanges do you intend trading on, the NZX for example is fairly illiquid, but other exchanges leave you exposed to currency movements.

7. What "competitive edge" do you believe you have, in this bear market you will be up against far more seasoned traders who will look to profit from newcomers mistakes.

8. The country is in a recession, & the markets are still bearish, the main indices could trade sideways for a long period, can you still it out & wait?

9. Do you require to earn income off your trading, ie. would a buy & hold strategy on blue chips paying dividends be more appropriate.

10. Lastly, good on you for posting & asking for help.

outspoken
18-01-2009, 07:32 PM
I will tell you what to do if you promise to obey my rules.
!, only communication between us is on share trader for all to see.
2, You must disclose your buy price within 24 hrs of buying.
3, You must disclose your sell price within 24 hrs of selling.
4, you must disclose your real name as i do.
5, You must disclose your intended portfolio budget.
6, you must meet your tax liabilities in an honest manner.
7, If i say dont buy that means sit on the side lines and wait.
8, If you break any of the above rules or object to any one of them then count me out.
Macdunk
Wow,

That would really be staking your reputation in an open public forum? with my money :-)

Thanks for the consideration, I don't think I have a problem with the rules but I need to really think about it.

outspoken
18-01-2009, 08:07 PM
I'd be highly skeptical of anyone on here "offering to help for payment", that would infringe on the terms of membership for a start, this is a forum & plenty of people will answer your questions

10. Lastly, good on you for posting & asking for help.

Thanks Shasta

I've come across most of what you've said in the articles, books, internet i've read so far. Discipline being stressed again and again. Something else that's very common is that every traders style is different depending on a multitude of factors.

I've worked hard my whole life manually and mentally, for myself and for others and I've been taken for a ride by people, companies I trusted. Now I've decided I will just do it myself. Who else can I blame then?

I'm still working, this is enough to support myself and squirrel some more into a trading account each month. I have close to $10,000 to start with. I'm self employed now so my time is my own to manage.
I'll work for awhile longer yet while I learn but eventually I'd like to trade full time. Drawing an income is not required while I'm still working but if I can produce consistent results I'll review that. As far as time frame/goals goes I'll take as long as it takes (probably years) to go full time. Losing my starting Capital is not the desired outcome but I understand it happens, A good (disciplined)money management system should help prevent this.

I'm very aware of macro economic events in the World, I believe that through Fiat based money systems and fractional reserve banking we are all being played. The environment and resources are being depleted to fuel consumerism and this is unsustainable. The Federal reserve is a farce and therefore benefits the few uber wealthy.
Knowing how to play the game is what brought me to trading.

At the moment I'm more interested in Forex, Commodities, Futures, Indicies. Don't know much about fundamental analysis for shares, but I've read alot of material on TA (got some awesome material just today actually from a ST member)

Thanks for your well considered point of view and advice I appreciate it, This forum has and continues to be invaluable.

Do you have any other valuable reading? or suggestions?

shasta
18-01-2009, 08:53 PM
Thanks Shasta

I've come across most of what you've said in the articles, books, internet i've read so far. Discipline being stressed again and again. Something else that's very common is that every traders style is different depending on a multitude of factors.

I've worked hard my whole life manually and mentally, for myself and for others and I've been taken for a ride by people, companies I trusted. Now I've decided I will just do it myself. Who else can I blame then?

I'm still working, this is enough to support myself and squirrel some more into a trading account each month. I have close to $10,000 to start with. I'm self employed now so my time is my own to manage.
I'll work for awhile longer yet while I learn but eventually I'd like to trade full time. Drawing an income is not required while I'm still working but if I can produce consistent results I'll review that. As far as time frame/goals goes I'll take as long as it takes (probably years) to go full time. Losing my starting Capital is not the desired outcome but I understand it happens, A good (disciplined)money management system should help prevent this.

I'm very aware of macro economic events in the World, I believe that through Fiat based money systems and fractional reserve banking we are all being played. The environment and resources are being depleted to fuel consumerism and this is unsustainable. The Federal reserve is a farce and therefore benefits the few uber wealthy.
Knowing how to play the game is what brought me to trading.

At the moment I'm more interested in Forex, Commodities, Futures, Indicies. Don't know much about fundamental analysis for shares, but I've read alot of material on TA (got some awesome material just today actually from a ST member)

Thanks for your well considered point of view and advice I appreciate it, This forum has and continues to be invaluable.

Do you have any other valuable reading? or suggestions?

Check out the other threads in the newbie section, plenty of posters have mentioned very worthwhile books.

One thing i would urge you to do (its in the process of learning & refining things) is to actually write down & document what it is you want to achieve etc. (Your own criteria list, or "system")

By having a "working document" to refer too, it will help you to keep your focus, & remove some of the emotion that inhibits all investors/traders.

I've written down the criteria a company must meet before i'll invest in it.

This will be different for each individual but a worthwhile exercise IMO.

Recording what works (& what doesn't) can hopefully avoid making the same mistakes over again.

I've seen it time & time again (& yes ive been guilty of this too), of making a few good trades & getting complacent, when in fact nothing comes easy.

Lastly, buying a few books & "paper trading" whilst learning & earning interest on your capital isn't the worst thing you could do right now!

AMR
18-01-2009, 09:36 PM
Outspoken are you coming to the Auckland sharetrader meeting next month? That's always a good place to start.

As for helpful reading:
Elder - Trading for a living
Bulkowski - Chart patterns encyclopedia
Colby - Encyclopaedia of technical indicators (very good)

Another thing I've found lately is that any trader with knowledge of programming and is able to do some historical testing on their own is at a HUGE advantage.

outspoken
18-01-2009, 10:25 PM
Thanks AMR

I'll make time to come to the meeting

Cheers for the reading, Just today I've been forwarded Bulkowski's encyclopedia along with Nisons' Candlestick charting e-book. Just a little light reading lol.
I'm getting it although it does take some patience and re-reading to understand.

I don't have any programming skills but with the knowledge I'm picking up I can understand some historical testing looking at charts.

Shasta - I've started a diary dedicating notes to what I've learned and paper trades I'm making.

shasta
18-01-2009, 10:38 PM
Thanks AMR

I'll make time to come to the meeting

Cheers for the reading, Just today I've been forwarded Bulkowski's encyclopedia along with Nisons' Candlestick charting e-book. Just a little light reading lol.
I'm getting it although it does take some patience and re-reading to understand.

I don't have any programming skills but with the knowledge I'm picking up I can understand some historical testing looking at charts.

Shasta - I've started a diary dedicating notes to what I've learned and paper trades I'm making.

That's a good start, as it's adding to the discipline you'll need.

Perhaps add into it what exchange/indices/commodities/sectors you like & rate them to there peers etc (I like to rate companies v there peers using "ROE" = Return on Equity), but that's just one criteria.

BTW, the Sharetrader meetings are of great value & i would urge newcomers to the site to attend the informal meetings we hold in Auckland, Wellington & Christchurch.

Hoop
19-01-2009, 07:29 PM
Outspoken.

I have The Zurich Axioms pinned on my wall....I refer to them all the time even now after decades of investing.
Bought my first shares in 1972. Everyone said I should start off by investing conservatively in big Blue chips shares which were perceived as being safe..so i took their advice and bought JBL with a third of my hard earned savings.....JBL unexpectedly went bust a couple of months later...don't know the moral to this story but it was the cruel reality of "Welcome to the World of Share Investing."

As similar to a survivor of a near drowning ...I knew I had to jump back into the water before I developed a phobia.... 35 years on...yep jumping back in was the best move....even though I have since suffered a few major disasters many self inflected by ignoring ones own discipline it is the success one gains which makes your self -esteem grow.

If one knows absolutely nothing... the 12 Zurich Axioms will keep you out of trouble most of the time if you strictly abide by them.

History of the Zurich Axioms (http://neif.org/Zurich_axioms.pdf)




The 12 Zurich Axioms





On Risk


Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health - if you are not worried, you are not risking enough.

Always play for meaningful stakes - if an amount is so small that its loss won't make any significant difference, then it isn't likely to bring any significant gains either.
Resist the allure of diversification.




On Greed


Always take your profit too soon.

Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.




On Hope


When the ship starts sinking, don't pray. Jump.

Accept small losses cheerfully as a fact of life. Expect to experience several while awaiting a large gain.




On Forecasts


Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.


On Patterns


Chaos is not dangerous until it starts to look orderly.

Beware the historian's trap - it is based on the age-old but entirely unwarranted belief that the orderly repetition of history allows for accurate forecasting in certain situations.
Beware the chartist's illusion - it is characteristic of human minds to perceive links of cause and effect where none exist.
Beware the Gambler's fallacy - there's no such thing as "Today's my lucky day" or "I'm hot tonight".




On Mobility


Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion.

Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia.
Never hesitate to abandon a venture if something more attractive comes into view.




On Intuition


A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.

Never confuse a hunch with a hope.




On the Occult


If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.

A superstition need not be exorcised. It can be enjoyed, provided it is kept in its place.




On Optimism & Pessimism


Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.


On Consensus


Disregard the majority opinion. It is probably wrong.

Never follow speculative fads. Often, the best time to buy something is when nobody else wants it.




On Stubbornness


If it doesn't pay off the first time, forget it.

Never try to save a bad investment by "averaging down".




On Planning


Long-range plans engender the dangerous belief that the future is under control. It is important never to take your own long-range plans or other people's seriously.

Shun long-term investments.

outspoken
19-01-2009, 08:36 PM
That's what I'm after Hoop, precious gems like those 12!



As similar to a survivor of a near drowning ...I knew I had to jump back into the water before I developed a phobia.... 35 years on...yep jumping back in was the best move....even though I have since suffered a few major disasters many self inflected by ignoring ones own discipline it is the success one gains which makes your self -esteem grow.

precisely! and I know for a fact I will encounter my own failures, but just like I've been forewarned & forarmed, it's how I deal with it that will make the difference. I've been burnt by others but I'm not going to let that keep me out of the kitchen. I just want to cook my own meals from now on. I look forward to discovering myself more along this journey too!


Cheers Hoop, thanks for sharing. Traders may be crazy but i've found many to be generous and caring too.

outspoken
19-01-2009, 08:47 PM
Wow, more pearls


Like to trade. People do best at things they really enjoy doing. Trading is no exception. That’s because, like anything, trading requires time and effort, and it’s easier to be committed if you’re truly passionate about what you’re doing. Good traders genuinely enjoy it.
Couldn't agree more, I'm really passionate about golf and I'm going to relate the fact that I didn't become a 2 Handicap in a matter of months. It took about 3 years from starting at age 13. Since then I've been able to maintain that just by practise, new equipment every 3-5 years, practise, lessons, remaining passionate and did I mention practise?
Of course when it comes to a big day (tournament) or in trading, real money, things don't always go as perfectly as practised but you CANNOT change your swing half way through a round, you might make some rythmn adjustments or focus more mentally but the fundamental technique must be repeated. This is like having trading rules, you can't change them half way through a trade, you might refine things for the next trade but you have to stick to the fundamental rules.

Am I on the right track AA?

Can't believe the enthusiastic and warm support I've got by asking for help. I'm mindful of the warnings too though :-)

outspoken
19-01-2009, 09:18 PM
You are a new king to these virgin lands, only recently you landed on these shores, the rules you set in place will dictate whether your colony survives or not.

Go forth and conquer
Mate, that's poetry to my ears

Placebo
20-01-2009, 12:48 PM
outspoken, the analogy with sport is a good one. No-one gets to be the best in sport by accident. Same goes with investing.

I'm reminded of an Arnold Palmer quote, to the effect "people say I'm the luckiest person in sports. But you know what? The more I practice, the luckier I get".

outspoken
20-01-2009, 02:17 PM
"The more I practice, the luckier I get"

I love that quote, use it all the time. It was Gary Player actually, but point taken!

dumbass
20-01-2009, 02:49 PM
i like the way your going about things and it sounds like you have a good head on your shoulders.
i live in your neck of the woods and have a lot of technical analysis books im happy to lend to you , if you promise to look after them.

outspoken
20-01-2009, 03:13 PM
Thank-you dumass, for the nice comment and the generous offer.

I'm still getting through an encyclopedia, a psychology of trading and a candlestick charting lesson. So if my brain isn't fried in the process can I come back to you on that?
No question the books will be back with you in the same condition.

dumbass
20-01-2009, 03:36 PM
yeh no worries , have an excellent book by steve nison , most would say a biblical text on candlesticks

Shrewd Crude
20-01-2009, 03:49 PM
I will tell you what to do if you promise to obey my rules.
!, only communication between us is on share trader for all to see.
2, You must disclose your buy price within 24 hrs of buying.
3, You must disclose your sell price within 24 hrs of selling.
4, you must disclose your real name as i do.
5, You must disclose your intended portfolio budget.
6, you must meet your tax liabilities in an honest manner.
7, If i say dont buy that means sit on the side lines and wait.
8, If you break any of the above rules or object to any one of them then count me out.
Macdunk


hey outspoken,
Give this mackdunk a flick...:D...

he runs this show as if it were an army camp...

his rules are too tough too follow...
pity he does not follow his own advice...
he bought CUE at 14.5cent average, and it fell to as low at 9.8cents (I think)... which would have had him stopped out no prob with his 5% stop losses, which he always implements......
and now he wont tell us his position.... yeeeeezzzz mackdunk...;)...
mackdunk is now in a catch twenty two... hahaha....
hes funked if he does, hes funked if he does not....:D

outspoken, getting a mentor is a real good idea mate... ive got one...
mentoring is alot more personal than online posting/plain general advice etc...
its to do with the core of trading, and the ideas behind it... maybe some stock picks... make sure your mentor knows more than you...

mentoring is not about silly things like posting your name, and disclosing when you buy and sell...and only communicating on the threads...
mackdunk has got it wrong this time...
:cool:
.^sc

outspoken
20-01-2009, 04:14 PM
Cheers Shrewd, I see you and mackdunk giving each other the razz from time to time.


outspoken, getting a mentor is a real good idea mate... ive got one...
mentoring is alot more personal than online posting/plain general advice etc...
its to do with the core of trading, and the ideas behind it... maybe some stock picks... make sure your mentor knows more than you...

I reckon eventually I'll find the right person, but for now I'm appreciative of the specifics I've been given so far.
I also reckon I've got all I need now, to start with anyway, no amount of reading, learning, hypothetical training, paper trading I'm starting will be as good as chucking some real money at it and experiencing the emotion (fear/greed) and excitement of starting the journey. As long as I implement religiously my rules / system I should be fine. I dont expect to place my first trade for probably another 2-3 weeks.

Personal contact will be cool too though so I'll go to the sharetrader meetings and keep pounding the boards, I'll probably use this thread to give snapshots of my progress too then you guys can say "oh yeah, been there, done that!" lol

duncan macgregor
21-01-2009, 07:47 PM
[QUOTE=Shrewd Crude;240445]hey outspoken,
Give this mackdunk a flick...:D...

he runs this show as if it were an army camp...

his rules are too tough too follow...
pity he does not follow his own advice...
he bought CUE at 14.5cent average, and it fell to as low at 9.8cents (I think)... which would have had him stopped out no prob with his 5% stop losses, which he always implements......
and now he wont tell us his position.... yeeeeezzzz mackdunk...;)...
mackdunk is now in a catch twenty two... hahaha....
hes funked if he does, hes funked if he does not....:D
SHREWDY, LEts get real.
I have been telling you to get out the market for the whole of 2008.
I told you the market would downtrend leading up to the olympics then crash.
You told me how stupid that was and placed half your wealth on CUE at 21.6c.
I bought a few [ for me at 14.6c] simply because i did not want you to best me no other reason outher than that.
I sold them at stop loss level woopee doo.
You now come over saying how smart you are and how stupid i was.
You will find out one day that the market rules not you or my interpritations of the market regardless of how smart we might feel at the time.
To watch a share downtrend from your buy level to where it is today still bleating on about being right shows me you have so much to learn.
You are turning into another SNOOPY mate stop and think it over first or you will lose the lot. Macdunk

Shrewd Crude
22-01-2009, 05:42 AM
SHREWDY, LEts get real.
1)I have been telling you to get out the market for the whole of 2008.
You told me how stupid that was and placed half your wealth on CUE at 21.6c.
2)I bought a few [ for me at 14.6c] simply because i did not want you to best me no other reason outher than that.
I sold them at stop loss level woopee doo.
3)You now come over saying how smart you are and how stupid i was.
4)You will find out one day that the market rules not you or my interpritations of the market regardless of how smart we might feel at the time.
5)To watch a share downtrend from your buy level to where it is today still bleating on about being right shows me you have so much to learn.
You are turning into another SNOOPY mate stop and think it over first or you will lose the lot. Macdunk

mackdunky pooh,
hey... chasing that pot of honey mate..

1) Ive been telling you to get out of housing for 2 years... and about fixed interest rates for the best part of 6 months...

2) well you are out of cue at a loss, (which you never disclosed as per your rules)... im holding onto a paper loss, you are holding onto a real loss...
a loss is only made when the position is sold...

3) I never said that... sorry if you think that way...

4) no buddy.... I rule the market when markets are normal...This is a one year in 60 year event... and last year ise caught out which I had no control over...
in all other years I control my buys and sells and all that, and sell when I believe material change effects the future value of the company etc...
No I rule it...
I posted on a few threads my thoughts the market overview,
what is shrewd crude thinking and doing thread, and CUE thread, and here and there....
but in the end I thought stuff it, and bought fully back into the market after selling out completely in 3rd quarter 07... i needed a kick in the pants...

5) if I am a snoopy then so be it... I will not sell my CUE until I see material change which affects the future value of the company... CUE have 57 million barrels of oil In its proven 2P category (which are BOE)...
and the market cap is 80-90 million dollars...less than 2 bucks a barrel of oil in its portfolio mate...
waiting for developmemt of these assets, and current developments going into production, and throw in a few exploration wells here and there for free... and bank on bankables like some of the low risk appraisal drilling coming up...
and being patient because its the only thing I know what to do when im in on a stock, and only selling when material change to the companies assets come forward....

I went large on the stock last year, and its the same company just in a bad market...give me a break...
sure the markets have changed... within the company there has been no real change to its assets...
:cool:
.^sc

Phaedrus
22-01-2009, 09:47 AM
Outspoken, I take it from your chosen moniker that you would appreciate blunt, candid, direct, explicit, forthright and frank replies to your post. In my opinion, you have not had any, yet....

You say that "I'm more interested in Forex......"
Are you aware that the success rate of retail forex traders is less than 5%? Over 95% lose their hard earned money - money they may well never be able to regain. You are most interested in what is probably the toughest trading area of all - harder even than day-trading where the failure rate is "only" about 80%. This is perhaps why most everyone is wishing you luck - you will surely need it.

"I don't know much about fundamental analysis for shares".
So, read some books. You should be able to interpret a balance sheet at the very least.

When AA said "You are a new king to these virgin lands" it was the sort of thing you wanted to hear, saying "that is poetry to my ears". The ugly truth is somewhat less poetic. These are not virgin lands. They are densely populated battlegrounds where you will be engaging in combat with ruthless and experienced opposition. You are not a king, you are a mere serf - cannon fodder.

"I also reckon I've got all I need now, to start with anyway, no amount of reading, learning, hypothetical training, paper trading I'm starting will be as good as chucking some real money at it and experiencing the emotion (fear/greed) and excitement of starting the journey"
Telling words, OS. Here we have impatience, impetuosity and focus on a search for excitement. All bad, if your aim is to make money.

"As long as I implement religiously my rules /system I should be fine"
Wishful thinking. First, you must develop a system that actually works. This is not easy. You don't need programming skills to backtest your systems, though. Most charting software includes this functionality.

"I dont expect to place my first trade for probably another 2-3 weeks".
If you think that it is possible to educate yourself, develop and test a winning system and implement it in just a few weeks, you are seriously underestimating the difficulty of the task you have set yourself.

In short, Outspoken, you hope to learn to swim by jumping straight into the deep end of the pool. The odds that you will drown there are very, very high.

Good luck in your search for a mentor. You may find one - it's a hard world out there, though. You may well come to the realisation that no-one, but no-one, gives a toss whether you win or lose in the market. That you are totally on your own and cannot rely on anyone other than yourself. It seems to me that you are looking for soft options when you speak of either looking for a guru to follow or paying $10,000 for a course.

Knowledge is hard won.

peat
22-01-2009, 01:24 PM
yes I'd agree with Phaedrus that forex is really hard... I've blown two accounts and on this third one I'm starting to do a bit better, but its truly amazing how quickly and easily the losses rack up to destroy the wins.

In forex money management is absolutely critical.... each trade itself should be relativly insignificant to the overall account - you will experience many losers in a row sometimes and this must not either destroy your capital or your faith. Each win must really count so that it can offset a number of losses. A saying such as 'cut your losses but let your winners run' really does have TWO aspects to it both of which you must adhere to if you wish to be profitable. Believe me neither is easy emotionally.
A saying such as 'nobody ever went broke taking a profit' doesnt work because your winners have a lot of work to do.

But the reason I chose forex is because it is a 24 hour market which allows you to trade outside of the day job, AND because I wanted to give myself the hardest challenge so that when I succeed I will be able to cut it in any market anytime - this goal is also why I chose to become a purely technical trader. Forex teaches you to play both ways too which I think many share traders are uncomfortable with.

here I launch into an old Bowie song that goes

It ain't easy, it ain't easy
It ain't easy to get to heaven when you're going down
Sometimes it'll take you right up and sometimes down again

Mick100
22-01-2009, 04:46 PM
If you want to see if you can make money in FX you can open a game account on the OANDA site. I ran one of these game accounts for a couple of months and ended up back where I started. I don't know what it takes to make money in FX but I havn't got the skills to do it.
.

outspoken
22-01-2009, 08:04 PM
Outspoken, I take it from your chosen moniker that you would appreciate blunt, candid, direct, explicit, forthright and frank replies to your post. In my opinion, you have not had any, yet....


Thanks for what you've said Phaedrus, I'm not going to argue with any of it.

What I am going to do is sit back, take a breath, read what you've said, truly understand the warning.
Then I'm going to re-examine my reasons for wanting to do this, examine the rules I'm starting to establish, decide if I can take or mitigate my risk anymore.

The one thing I will disagree with you on is: I'm not looking for an easy way to do this, I really do understand that it will be hard work and could end in tears. You've given me reason for pause.

I'll come back to you.

shasta
22-01-2009, 08:12 PM
Thanks for what you've said Phaedrus, I'm not going to argue with any of it.

What I am going to do is sit back, take a breath, read what you've said, truly understand the warning.
Then I'm going to re-examine my reasons for wanting to do this, examine the rules I'm starting to establish, decide if I can take or mitigate my risk anymore.

The one thing I will disagree with you on is: I'm not looking for an easy way to do this, I really do understand that it will be hard work and could end in tears. You've given me reason for pause.

I'll come back to you.

You have done pretty well with your initial post.

The advice given from the likes of Phaedrus, Peat & Mick100 should be taken onboard, they are 3 of the more respected members on this site.

You have some seasoned traders/investors telling you how hard it is.

If it seems like people are trying to scare you off trading, it's for your own benefit.

Just remember alot of people on this site are sitting close to 100% cash, & for a good reason.

outspoken
22-01-2009, 08:21 PM
You have done pretty well with your initial post.

The advice given from the likes of Phaedrus, Peat & Mick100 should be taken onboard, they are 3 of the more respected members on this site.

You have some seasoned traders/investors telling you how hard it is.

If it seems like people are trying to scare you off trading, it's for your own benefit.

Just remember alot of people on this site are sitting close to 100% cash, & for a good reason.

I agree shasta, I've done very well with my asking for information. I didn't really expect to get a mentor overnight, just some contacts and pointing in the right direction.
As I've said, I now have some good material to read, some friends to ask questions and a healthy dose of "this ain't gonna be easy"
For that I'm grateful, and now I'll be patient.

As a side note, cash is a dangerous asset class to be in if that cash is devaluing isn't it? :-) Guess it depends what currency you're in.

shasta
22-01-2009, 08:25 PM
I agree shasta, I've done very well with my asking for information. I didn't really expect to get a mentor overnight, just some contacts and pointing in the right direction.
As I've said, I now have some good material to read, some friends to ask questions and a healthy dose of "this ain't gonna be easy"
For that I'm grateful, and now I'll be patient.

As a side note, cash is a dangerous asset class to be in if that cash is devaluing isn't it? :-) Guess it depends what currency you're in.

If your bullish the time to buy could be "soon" ;)

Placebo
23-01-2009, 03:52 PM
I don't know why anybody in their right mind would want to be a forex trader. These are truly the people for whom the saying `how do you sleep at nights' was created. At least with equities markets they close. Forex never closes. Catch your 40 winks, lose a few million. Oh well, them's the breaks.

OS I was a bit perplexed about your comment about not knowing much about fundamentals. I find this a bit odd. As Phaedrus says, you should at least know the basics about how to read a balance sheet. FA is all about the strength of the balance sheet, the quality of management, the company's track record, debt to equity ratios, plus a few associated things like the company's relative strength to others in its sector (is it the `only bridge on the river'?) and how it's performing compared to macro-economic condition. Pretty straightforward stuff ;)

I think that, even if you see yourself as a TA trader, you need to get a grasp of the basics of FA. They really are two sides of the same coin (and never the twain shall meet, as you see by the frequent stoushed on the boards). I knew very little about TA before coming on here, now I use my rudimentary knowledge to check whether what I have identified as a `good buy' using basically FA techniques stacks up.

And remember this - knowledge is like money (and cars ;) - you can never have enough of it.

Footsie
28-01-2009, 11:59 AM
OS.

You are trying to embark upon a trading career and have probably been excited by forex due to the leverage and potential profit.
As a former forex dealer and trader. DO NOT DO IT.

Second.
We are in the worst bear market since the 1930's. It's killing even the most experienced traders.
My advice.
Wait. use TA and wait till the next bull emerges.
You may have to wait 6 months maybe 2 years, but believe me, it will be much much easier to learn in that environment than the current one.

If you do not heed the advice of myself Phaedrus and others who have been in this game for some time I would give you probably 2 weeks in FX and 2 months in equities before you blow up.

Stick to stocks, and wait for the next bull. While you are waiting read a book on markets every week. Pratice TA whenever you can.
Remind yourself every day that making money is not easy and will require hard work.

O Dusty
29-01-2009, 08:19 PM
Hey Outspoken
Thanks for prompting such great responses, I am in the same boat as you and very new to trading (21 just graduated from Vic in commerce).
Before I bacame a member I have been following these forums for 6 months. In regards to your lack of fundamental analysis a member (i forget who) recommended www.informedtrades.com. This site is great with videos talking through the lessons and text accompanying them. I have used it to learn the basics of both TA and FA.
Thanks to all the members for the great responses, as this is the newbies place I have a newbie question someone may be able to help me with. Are there any patterns between inflation and the sharemarket, I just feel with the continuing cutting of interest rates (huge 1.5% in NZ today so we are down to 3.5 from 8 now) and the billions and billions of $US being pumped into the economy that inflation may pickup rapidly. The low oil prices and lack of consumer spending because of job losses and fear are holding inflation down but when economy recovers so will inflation?.

shasta
29-01-2009, 08:29 PM
Hey Outspoken
Thanks for prompting such great responses, I am in the same boat as you and very new to trading (21 just graduated from Vic in commerce).
Before I bacame a member I have been following these forums for 6 months. In regards to your lack of fundamental analysis a member (i forget who) recommended www.informedtrades.com (http://www.informedtrades.com). This site is great with videos talking through the lessons and text accompanying them. I have used it to learn the basics of both TA and FA.
Thanks to all the members for the great responses, as this is the newbies place I have a newbie question someone may be able to help me with. Are there any patterns between inflation and the sharemarket, I just feel with the continuing cutting of interest rates (huge 1.5% in NZ today so we are down to 3.5 from 8 now) and the billions and billions of $US being pumped into the economy that inflation may pickup rapidly. The low oil prices and lack of consumer spending because of job losses and fear are holding inflation down but when economy recovers so will inflation?.

Its just the economic cycle, inflation will lead to higher wages etc, & eventually the interest rates will go back up to steem the flow.

With interest rates lowering, both property investment & mainly the sharemarket become more appealing especially for companies that pay a good steady dividend yield.

Expect the money flows from banks term deposits to go into the markets (even the conservative journalist Mary Holm is suggesting investing in the sharemarket :eek:)

Just remember we have had tax cuts (& getting more 1 April & its not a joke!), lower petrol prices, & now lower interest rates, not all bad aye?

O Dusty - you should come along to the Wellington Sharetraders meeting on the 14th Feb, & meet some of the posters who will be happy to answer your questions. ;)

outspoken
29-01-2009, 10:07 PM
Yes, O Dusty, I'm pleased with the responses I've had. I'm also pleased that they are useful to others such as yourself.

To all that have replied: Thank-you.

I've taken some time, deliberated on the warnings, the advice, read some more on the topics I'm interested in, contemplated my reasons, reworked my rules and put a stake in the ground. I am going to trade, full stop. I will take it slowly, I have a cash management system, I'll paper trade mostly but look for good signals and use my TA knowledge when a likely trade entry presents, I'll enter with Sl and TP .

I'm determined and forewarned, forearmed.

I've found someone who is willing to guide me (for free) and I'm completely comfortable with what I'm planning to do.

Thanks again to you all, I'll be sure to post results as applicable.

Hoop
30-01-2009, 10:33 AM
Just noticed and not sure of other newbie posters...

Be very careful .... armed with a business degree can give you a false assumption that you are in control of the marketplace.

Knowing some FA techniques taught at varsity is only a small part of the overall Investment Disciplines.

Remember ....the key driver of the markets is Human Group Behaviour, and rightly or wrongly that group behaviour is what dictates at the time.

From experience when I first started out...using my own business degree I analysed companies and invested in the good ones...and often in those companies that the market did not like...I felt because of my varsity degree I was right and everyone else (the market) was wrong....Result got my arse kicked more often than not.

Don't get me wrong FA (fundamental analysis) is an essential sub-discipline but it is only one of many.
Also TA which deals more with group behavior is an essential sub-discipline but it is only one of many.

The most important factor be a successful investor is to understand yourself mentally...all the degrees and book reading in the world will not help if you are not mentaly tuned in to this investing world. Unless you are a born "natural" it will take years of learning..for most people it will never happen.

O Dusty
30-01-2009, 11:15 AM
Thanks Shasta as a Vic student I know St Johns very well, it would be a very interesting experience for me.



Be very careful .... armed with a business degree can give you a false assumption that you are in control of the marketplace.

Knowing some FA techniques taught at varsity is only a small part of the overall Investment Disciplines.

Remember ....the key driver of the markets is Human Group Behaviour, and rightly or wrongly that group behaviour is what dictates at the time.

From experience when I first started out...using my own business degree I analysed companies and invested in the good ones...and often in those companies that the market did not like...I felt because of my varsity degree I was right and everyone else (the market) was wrong....Result got my arse kicked more often than not.


Others may disagree but I feel that in some ways I am lucky to have begun my trading career in such tumultuous times because it has installed the understanding that far more seasoned and experienced investors are not in control of the market so how on earth could I be.
Thanks hoop I agree in regards to human group behaviour being a key driver, thats why I found the anthropology areas of economics invaluable. My business degree only helped to spark my interest in trading, I feel as though I have grown more through my own learning in the last 6 months as opposed to my 3 years at uni.

I guess I will disclose, bought CUE several weeks ago, avg 12.5

O Dusty
30-01-2009, 11:22 AM
Hoop, could you point me towards other investment disciplines that you feel may be useful for a youngster as I would like to continue to broaden my knowledge. I will further my studies in TA because I feel the indicators of the market will dictate when I invest the bulk of my capital not the value of companies which will come later.

Placebo
30-01-2009, 12:22 PM
Yes the human behaviour factor can't be underestimated. When I was an `observer' of the market (and since being involved) it has never ceased to amaze me how "good" companies can be undervalued simply because of market sentiment. The more usual thing you see is a company being irrationally overpriced simply because it is a market "darling" or is making hollow promises on what it may or may not deliver. There are plenty of these on the NZ market who have had their day in the sun - FTB, SLG, BLT... Some people actually made money on them ;)

I agree, the best way to go ahead is to get your feet wet - but don't bet more than you're prepared to lose. These are volatile times. Though if you are an optimist, you may see plenty of upside potential in a lot of companies and of course there are plenty of safe haven utilities.

OS it is good you have a mentor and this will be a good sounding board for you, but you would be well advised to also `do your own research' and convince yourself the advice is sound. Don't just blindly follow.

Two heads on investing is a little like wearing two watches. You can be doubly assured that your thinking is right, but if there is disagreement, how can you be sure either is right?

Good luck.

graeme50
01-02-2009, 10:07 AM
I have used advise from brokers before and lost money. You really need to look at comapnies you like and then do your own research Learn how to read charts. follow your gut instinct. spread your risk between a few companies. Don't put your eggs in one basket. I recommended a company on here just over 1 week ago. I see no one replied and it jumped 118% I think it will jump another 25% within the next 2 weeks. Will any one take my advise? probably not so do your own DD and be careful which companies you invest in. The share trading arm of several banks have analysis and recommendations and that could be a good place to start.

George
06-02-2009, 08:05 AM
Just read this thread for first time and take issue with a comment by SC
earlier that losses are only paper until sold - this is fallacy.
A paper loss is a REAL LOSS just as a paper profit is real - at that point.
I think TIME is an important consideration when trading - how long do you give
a position before selling out. It may be a daytrade, overnight, 3 days, a week,
month, year, whatever, one should work out the best time period for them and
stick to it if not already stopped out. I am angling towards daytrading Aussie
shares and have my worst periods when holding a losing daytrade
overnight or for weeks in the mistaken belief it will come good. Trouble is, it
sometimes does, and that sets you up for an eventual wipeout.

George

Shrewd Crude
06-02-2009, 11:20 AM
hey George,
Its all personal intrepretation...
I remember a few years ago talking to grandad about my winners and he told me that those profits are not real until they are taken..."until that money is in your hot little hand", he told me....
I did not take it to heart at the time... I was locked up in my own little world of thought... but I did remember what he said, and it all started to make sense as the positions I held started to fall after I sold them....

I was so caught up in how much paper profit I made, that it almost blurred my judgement on sell signals...

At that time I banked on profits that had not yet being taken...
In the end I did sell the shares, and then the stocks tumbled...
at that point I realised for the given level of risk that I take that yes I was foolish to believe that profits and losses are real before they are sold...
so in my experience, I wont bank profits or losses until positions are sold...
im weary after my rather lucky experiences with AED and NWE...and MEO...and others...

Now it would be taking it one step further to bank on returns not yet gained...

Its all about the individual... If you pursue a low risk portfolio strategy, then banking profits as they surface could be the way to go... higher liqduidity and smoother returns...
In this world of high risk, banking on profits, or losses not yet taken can be a detrement as those daily changes in dollar signs effect your emotions and blurr signals...

do what you got to do, I dont personally follow oher strategies, mine is evolving as I go...as I learn... and Im going to stand by my call because I believe in the fundamentals...
:cool:
.^sc

Phaedrus
06-02-2009, 12:46 PM
Incademy.com is an excellent investor education website.

One of their online "courses" is entitled "Fifteen Favourite Fallacies". It is well worth reading. You can find examples of each and every one of these 15 fallacies being advocated right here on ShareTrader.

"Paper losses aren't real" is number 10.

I'm with George.

http://www.incademy.com/training/Fifteen-favourite-fallacies/Introduction/1041/10002/

outspoken
06-02-2009, 02:20 PM
Incademy.com is an excellent investor education website.

One of their online "courses" is entitled "Fifteen Favourite Fallacies". It is well worth reading. You can find examples of each and every one of these 15 fallacies being advocated right here on ShareTrader.

"Paper losses aren't real" is number 10.

I'm with George.

http://www.incademy.com/training/Fifteen-favourite-fallacies/Introduction/1041/10002/

That was a really healthy read, thanks Phaedrus.


It is only human to look for reliable rules and simple formulae to resolve an intellectual challenge. The investor's search for easy answers is manifested in a range of proverbs, sayings and mantras that have been given authority by the mere force of repetition. Together, these sayings are the nearest thing to a body of education that many investors ever receive. And they are all the more dangerous for that.

The sayings are seldom correct. Many of them are either completely misguided, or plain wrong, or right only in certain circumstances. Treat them with too much reverence, and you could be heading for a fall. Recognise them for what they are - simplistic part truths - and you stand a chance of emerging unscathed.
Never look a gift horse in the mouth? :D

dumbass
06-02-2009, 02:39 PM
Hi George,

the loss usually limited by a disciplined mental stop

AA

To me AA a stop is a stop, cast in stone, a time to accept your trade has exceeded its original parameters and therefore time to get out quick.
I have never really understood how you implement a mental stop and why would you set one in the first place.
If your mental stop is hit then do you sell at market maybe for a bigger loss or is it a warning to get out and sell into a rally which may never come,seems very risky in volatile times.
I could only see the use, trading a thin market to avoid stop hunting and who wants to trade those markets.

i would appreciate your thoughts.

AMR
06-02-2009, 03:20 PM
AA I still think you should use an "emergency" stop. What happens if you get hit by a falling piano before a major market meltdown and can't sell?

dumbass
06-02-2009, 05:07 PM
thanks for response AA, i get where your coming from , i suppose its horses for courses even though i would take a hard stop with a bit of whipsaw over that occasional event which may trigger a big loss, including flying pianos etc.
in my early days of trading i tended to set my stops where every man and his dog set theres, so say on a support break there was an avalanche of stop sells going through making it difficult to get a market sell order in at a good price. I am a little more circumspect with stop placement now.

Shrewd Crude
06-02-2009, 07:03 PM
hey phaedrus and others,
It does not matter to me, paper losses, real losses whatever which way you want to look at it...when you want to book it... in the end it only comes down to making REAL money... and I dont consider positions not sold REAL money.... ie... physical cash in the hand...
As long as im making money over the long term then im ok with that...
If I buy into a company for a reason then I will hold until that reason changes... its rather simple really...

I went 80% all in on NWE... had I continued to hold then I would have lost pretty much my shirt, and gruds...
The fact that I was almost blinded by the fact that I took heavy (paper) profits blurring my thoughts meant that booking paper profits could have cost me everything I had... So im not so excited about day to day changes to my wealth... im only interested on the target price to achieve, or material change to that target price (which means I dump on market, unattached, unemotional selling).....
thats just my opinion...
im happy with my way, I dont follow strict systems...
and I dont lose money over the long term...
mackdunk made 100% in 2007, and I beat him easy...
good luck to all...

dont be moulded into other systems... find your own system... and tinker with it...
peace
:cool:
.^sc

dumbass
06-02-2009, 07:59 PM
a entry i have had a bit of success with in drifting markets is what i call the 113% retracement.
its kind of anticipating a fake breakout stop triggering spike below support and set your entry at this level.
the 113 retracement is the mark in the sand for me that determines a real breakout from a head fake.

dumbass
06-02-2009, 08:51 PM
AA why are you not watching the kiwis dick the aussies in the cricket?

dumbass
06-02-2009, 09:05 PM
try this it touches on the failed wave.

http://www.harmonictrader.com/The5-0Pattern.pdf

strictly surfing in breaks!