SKL Chart

[babymonster]

i might try to get some while it's cheap... it won't go down below 130...

[Biscuit]

it won't go down below 130...

Can I have that in writing? as the punt I took at 135, 136 before the announcement is looking a little wobbly now!

[babymonster]

I did put an order at 1.31..

[percy]

The sp is $1.33,well below the 50day EMA [$1.39], and the 200 day EMA [$1.51] ,so the downtrend remains intact.!!
I will keep SKL on my watch list and look to buy if/when the trend turns up.

[babymonster]

and this one won't have much announcement until the next report.. lol.. pretty much is bought and put it at the bottom of my files...

[Biscuit]

The sp is $1.33,well below the 50day EMA [$1.39], and the 200 day EMA [$1.51] ,so the downtrend remains intact.!!
I will keep SKL on my watch list and look to buy if/when the trend turns up.

You are wise, Percy. But I'm not sure I would call the down trend intact yet.

[Biscuit]

Back up to $1.35 now, Percy. That's up 2c since this morning. at that rate it will be $1.50 by the end of the month!

[percy]

Back up to $1.35 now, Percy. That's up 2c since this morning. at that rate it will be $1.50 by the end of the month!

At $1.35 the sp is still under the 50 day EMA [$1.39].
The downtrend started on 3/3/2014 when the sp was $1.85,and is intact.
The major sell signal was on 23/7/2014 when the sp went below the 200 day EMA at $1.73.

[BlackPeter]

Result is out. HY profit down 10%. Dividend maintained and outlook for year flat:



"Skellerup expects FY15 NPAT will be in line


with the FY14 result of $20.7 million (excluding the gain attributable to the


Canterbury Earthquakes insurance claim)."





So, not doom and gloom then...

Actually - given that their two major client groups (mining and agriculture) are currently not looking that flash do I think that they did quite well. Encouraging as well that they stay with their 2015 prediction: similar to 2014 (which used to be a quite good one).

If we assume that the drought will not stay for ever - and if we believe in the early signs of recovery in the mining industry (actually - most of the miners show currently some signs of SP recovery, i.e. the market believes that things are going upwards again), than I think that SKL has a good chance to make their 2015 predictions (maybe even with some upwards potential) and that they might be in for a stellar 2016 ... particularly given by than the increased efficiency of the Wigram plant.

Discl: happy holder - and might buy some more on weakness ... but obviously - DYOR;

[Biscuit]

Your logic is relentless, and I wouldn't wager on my $1.50 "prediction" - enough gambling for this month

[babymonster]

I don't like wait for another yr. Skl is the longest one I hold at the moment. Brought it at 1.49 last nov. It hasn't trigger my stop loss yet. So guess I am a happy holder too

[kiora]

At $1.35 the sp is still under the 50 day EMA [$1.39].
The downtrend started on 3/3/2014 when the sp was $1.85,and is intact.
The major sell signal was on 23/7/2014 when the sp went below the 200 day EMA at $1.73.

Exiting shareholder notice coming up ?

[percy]

Exiting shareholder notice coming up ?

11,738.239 shares traded today,so will be interesting to see who the sellers and buyers are.?

[winner69]

I see no uptrend ....still looks a downtrend to me as the purple line is still going down

I do see a DEATH CROSS on the chart at $1.70 odd around August last year and nothing good since.

Still watching squiggly lines though

[winner69]

Actually - given that their two major client groups (mining and agriculture) are currently not looking that flash do I think that they did quite well. Encouraging as well that they stay with their 2015 prediction: similar to 2014 (which used to be a quite good one).

If we assume that the drought will not stay for ever - and if we believe in the early signs of recovery in the mining industry (actually - most of the miners show currently some signs of SP recovery, i.e. the market believes that things are going upwards again), than I think that SKL has a good chance to make their 2015 predictions (maybe even with some upwards potential) and that they might be in for a stellar 2016 ... particularly given by than the increased efficiency of the Wigram plant.

Discl: happy holder - and might buy some more on weakness ... but obviously - DYOR;

They must be pretty confident in saying they will be 10% up.for H2 following a 10% down in H1

A bit held back? Off course not

[winner69]

11,738.239 shares traded today,so will be interesting to see who the sellers and buyers are.?

That's 5% of the company .....limits the field as to who selling.

[winner69]

Saying they expect to make the same this year as last year is a HUGE downgrade in expectations.

Looking back over their announcements last October (not long ago eh) they were saying earnings could be as high as $24.5m or 18% up on last year

The market didn't seem fooled then, will they be this time?

Hmm

[noodles]

Saying they expect to make the same this year as last year is a HUGE downgrade in expectations.

Looking back over their announcements last October (not long ago eh) they were saying earnings were going to be 18% up on last year

The market didn't seem fooled then, will they be this time?

Hmm
Agreed. I can name quite a few other small cap stocks that trade on less demanding multiples and are showing growth in earnings. Let me think SCL, PGW, AWK, VIL, THL, EVO, IQE, HBY

[Biscuit]

Agreed. I can name quite a few other small cap stocks that trade on less demanding multiples and are showing growth in earnings. Let me think SCL, PGW, AWK, VIL, THL, EVO, IQE, HBY

Well, none of those are NZX50 companies and not sure they make that useful a comparison as they each have their own problems. SKl growth has ground to a halt in recent years faced with a number of headwinds. I guess the question is: are those headwinds over and is growth going to resume soon. The answer would seem to be no.

[Biscuit]

Saying they expect to make the same this year as last year is a HUGE downgrade in expectations.

Looking back over their announcements last October (not long ago eh) they were saying earnings could be as high as $24.5m or 18% up on last year

The market didn't seem fooled then, will they be this time?

Hmm

They said $21M - $24.5M, so not a HUGE downgrade in expectations if we are still expecting around $21M, but a downgrade nevertheless.

[noodles]

Well, none of those are NZX50 companies and not sure they make that useful a comparison as they each have their own problems. SKl growth has ground to a halt in recent years faced with a number of headwinds. I guess the question is: are those headwinds over and is growth going to resume soon. The answer would seem to be no.
Well I think from an earnings perspective, a lot of these are quite comparable. Secondly, SKL won't be in the NZX50 for much longer?

[winner69]

They said $21M - $24.5M, so not a HUGE downgrade in expectations if we are still expecting around $21M, but a downgrade nevertheless.

So the top end of expectations they give are so so optimistic

Does that mean the latest guidance of 'FY15 NPAT expected to be inline with FY14 NPAT of $20.7 million' really means something less than last year .....maybe like H1 and 10% down

Who knows .....wait and see ....and hope .....and hope is a strategy

[Biscuit]

Who knows .....wait and see ....and hope .....and hope is a strategy

We also have Faith and Charity in our strategy Winner so we can be a little more optimistic.

[BlackPeter]

well ... it looks like the CEO David Mair has faith in his company ... purchased yesterday and today all together 600,000 shares - 100,000 for a trust (he is involved in) and another 500,000 just for himself. I suppose that's even for him no pocket money ....

[babymonster]

it needs some good news to boots it up.

[janner]

well ... it looks like the CEO David Mair has faith in his company ... purchased yesterday and today all together 600,000 shares - 100,000 for a trust (he is involved in) and another 500,000 just for himself. I suppose that's even for him no pocket money ....

Of course it is ..

Probably buy's his meat and veg at almost the same prices you pay !!..

[Biscuit]

Back up to $1.35 now, Percy. That's up 2c since this morning. at that rate it will be $1.50 by the end of the month!

Well maybe not last month, but perhaps this month?

[Biscuit]

I don't think it has much chance of world domination and it is not a CAGR 25% company. I'm comfortable with it as part of a broad portfolio, and don't look to only invest in fast growing companies. I'm also always keen to pick up shares when they are "down" if you can pick up a decent dividend at the same time, and sell them soon after. Doesn't always work of course.

Dividend in the bank this morning! Time to off-load a few :)

[BlackPeter]

Oops - did we just pass the "golden cross"? Mind you - just between MA 30 and MA 100, and a rather flat one as well, but the trend looks still encouraging ..

[percy]

Oops - did we just pass the "golden cross"? Mind you - just between MA 30 and MA 100, and a rather flat one as well, but the trend looks still encouraging ..

I use the 50day EMA and the 200day EMA.The sp is $1.43.50day EMA is $1.40 and 200day EMA is $1.47.
So the sp has gone through the 50day EMA,but still needs to get past the 200 day EMA .
Encouraging though.

[sb9]

Looks like sp back into the 1.30s and not much support.

Disc: Not a holder, watching...

[percy]

Still not looking flash with the share price [$1.35],below both the 50 day EMA [$1.40] and the 200 day EMA.[$1.46].

[BlackPeter]

Still not looking flash with the share price [$1.35],below both the 50 day EMA [$1.40] and the 200 day EMA.[$1.46].

Hi Percy, this is correct - and I do appreciate your TA-views. Just to add a bit balance: Personally I do see this company as (somewhat) undervalued. Long term P/E is 11, forward P/E is 12.7. CAGR admittedly in the same order of magnitude as inflation (but positive). Analyst consensus forecast is $1.55. Healthy balance sheet (you even could call it "lazy") and good products needed by agriculture, mining and industry.

My view is that they will take off as soon as mining and dairy get out of the doldrums (which still might take some time, but it will inevitably happen) - and until this happens they are a reasonable dividend payer and can afford to do so. Maybe not the most exciting share on the block - and probably at current not the best share for a trader, but long term they belong IMHO into an diversified investment portfolio.

Discl: holding

[percy]

Hi Percy, this is correct - and I do appreciate your TA-views. Just to add a bit balance: Personally I do see this company as (somewhat) undervalued. Long term P/E is 11, forward P/E is 12.7. CAGR admittedly in the same order of magnitude as inflation (but positive). Analyst consensus forecast is $1.55. Healthy balance sheet (you even could call it "lazy") and good products needed by agriculture, mining and industry.

My view is that they will take off as soon as mining and dairy get out of the doldrums (which still might take some time, but it will inevitably happen) - and until this happens they are a reasonable dividend payer and can afford to do so. Maybe not the most exciting share on the block - and probably at current not the best share for a trader, but long term they belong IMHO into an diversified investment portfolio.

Discl: holding

I must agree with what you have posted.PE is not too high,debt is low, and is a regular divie payer.
I did sell out some time ago when the share price got ahead of its self.
I have SKL on my watch list.Just trying to time my re-entry.
It may move ahead when the new Wigram factory starts production.[at the end of this year?].