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Phaedrus
22-06-2004, 11:27 AM
This stock gets little exposure on ShareTrader, though I have noticed that some admit to holding it. Some technical points of interest are :-
SKX is in a short and long-term uptrend.
Prices have broken above short-term resistance (magenta line)
There has been an upward breakout from a symmetrical triangle formation.
Price action has moved back above a 200 day Simple Moving Average.
There was a clear Price/Volume climax in April. (These often mark significant turning points)
Price action is above a shorter-term moving average, such as would be used by those trading this stock.
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/SKX001.gif
There is an obvious Buyer/Seller imbalance, as you can see :-
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/SKX002.gif
I would be interested in others views on the fundamentals of this stock. No rampers or knockers please. Reasoned factual balanced open-minded comment is what I would value here. TIA.

(Title updated 6/10/06)

Bobby
22-06-2004, 11:38 AM
This copmnay has done well with its hedging policy - I guess positives have to be drawn from the hogher cmmodity proces abroad which tend to suggest increased buying/maintence of the rural materials which SKX supplies. Further, the lower NZ dollar should be of assistance. PE is not outlandish and has a good divvy. I am happy holding as a quiet achiever with long-term prospects. In the meantime, I am happy receiving myy divvy cheques.

JAMP
22-06-2004, 12:06 PM
Phaedrus, have been a happy holder since Dec02. Funny to think that it was a little over two months ago that I was hoping someone would post a chart on SKX. You aren't back-testing my portfolio are you? <shudder>

You may find a little fundamental analysis here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=17445). I guess it depends how in-depth you wish to go.

Regards JAMP
NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
UCM: KCE

Othello
22-06-2004, 03:35 PM
Hi Phaderaus
With SKX I noticed on the T/A side that the ADXR has climbed up and that it has just broken a short term resistance level , my one problem with this stock ( maybe 2 or 3) comes from the long term trendline from OCT 02 touched mar 03 ,and sept 03, broken feb 04 and now sitting on or just below this line. ( how ever once $1.35 resistance has been breached with conviction then the up trend has resumed) I see that it has completed 5 waves up . So will be interested to see if it has just completed 3 waves down and is now in the next phase up. Saying all this i have just bought SKX.
Thanks for yr posts Phad i enjoy reading them. just wish i could post charts on here to show what i mean sometimes :)

Bob Marley
12-07-2004, 12:38 PM
Hello Phaedrus mon. About SKX fundamentals, I notice that two of the better NZ fund managers have recently exited SKX. Fisher Funds exited Nov/Dec 2003 and Brook exited Jan/Feb 2004. Both had been holders since listing. This tells me fundamentals can't be too flash mon.

craic
12-07-2004, 01:47 PM
As a holder, it has gone close to the cut-off point in my portfolio probably for the same reason as the funds managers exited - it's too sluggish. No real movement reasonable return but on the Buffet logic - is ths the best place for my money at this time? the answer is no. My holding is small and not enough to sell on its own. I would need to sell something else with it to create enough funds to bother.

JAMP
12-07-2004, 06:47 PM
craic, I get the feeling that you are less than 100% positive you want to quit your holding in SKX. What cost to hold until such time as the annual result is announced in a little over two months time? There is unlikely to be little in the way of press releases to impact the price significantly between now and then.

To my mind the domestic agricultural sector has had sufficient time to adjust to the comparatively higher US Dollar environment that we are presently operating within. I am not saying that they are over the moon with the current NZDUSD rate, but they have had time to adjust.

Regards JAMP
NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
Unlisted: KCE SUB

Phaedrus
12-07-2004, 07:43 PM
Bob, It is good to be aware of that sort of thing, thanks. It will be a sorry day, though, when I start basing my investment decisions on the actions of fund managers. You see, I don't consider them to be any better than me.
SKX is in a nice little uptrend. When that ends, I'm out. Right now, fundamentals don't come into it.
Maximum respec, Phaedrus.

Bobby
20-07-2004, 10:08 AM
I note SKX finally seems to be shaking off the shackles of the $1.30 upper limit - I expect this upward trend to continue as this seems to have been undervalued (perhaps by simply being ignored) for quite a time. Seems to have been stuck for too long in that 1.20 to 1.30 band. Go go go SKX

Phaedrus
20-07-2004, 10:37 AM
A nice tidy example of Resistance, when broken, becoming Support.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/SKX2001.gif

JAMP
24-07-2004, 04:46 PM
Phaedrus, might I be so bold as to enquire when you got onboard with SKX and whether you have held them on previous occasions? Your chart suggests that you may have held them more than once, it also suggests that April has in the past been a very good month to get into SKX. Worth a diary note for Apr05 perhaps?

Kittydashwood, in another thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20241) you mentioned that you were "Thinking about NLX (ASX) and SKX(NZX) at the moment". As an existing holder of SKX I am keen to learn why in your eyes they fit your criteria.

As an aside, I recall reading a columnist refer to the impact that continuous disclosure has had upon this period between financial year-end and audited reporting. I note that SKX have yet to make a trip to the confessional - this increases my confidence that their result will be in-line with market expectations.

Regards JAMP
NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
Unlisted: KCE SUB

Phaedrus
25-07-2004, 04:56 PM
Jamp,
I bought SKX in April on the basis of the price/volume climax, and doubled up at $1.22.
I had held this stock before, but was sold out completely by February of this year.
Your comment that April is a good month to buy this stock is based on but two observations - this would have no statistical significance in my opinion.

JAMP
25-07-2004, 07:04 PM
Thanks Phaedrus.

My comments re: the month of April were largely tongue in cheek. You may find however that as time passes, the formal reporting months (April and October) provide an element of impetus to the direction of the SKX shareprice for the following six months.

I have personally found that this is quite common for companies that don't traditionally provide much in the way of additional disclosure throughout the course of the year.

Regards JAMP
NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
Unlisted: KCE SUB

kittydashwood
26-07-2004, 08:29 AM
Hi Jamp

I have been a holder of SKX before (March03- December 03), never really wanted to sell but needed the cash.
SKX Perth office seems to have done well building market share in the Australian mining industry, while the the floods in BOP and Manuwatu will mean farmers in these areas will need to replace contaminated plant.

On the whole SKX looks to be well balanced in terms of income giving it some insulation from the commodity cycles. The steady management has delivered on prospectus forecasts. Fonterra payout increases and the mild winter will encourage more diary operations to make shed improvements and refits.

SKX seems to have the slow and steady rep., however I can see rapid improvement in EBIT for the next two years. My system values SKX as a buy up to 1.35, with likely resistance about 1.65. So theres at least 25% unrealised value there IMHO.

JAMP
03-08-2004, 02:47 PM
Thanks kittydashwood.

By my calculations the uptrend that SKX is presently in has crossed (or is about to cross) the support level of $1.28. With the hint of there being resistance to upwards appreciation in the shareprice at $1.35 it will be interesting to see where to from here.

As an aside, I have been chewing over a couple of snippets from the VTX annual meeting. I raise them because there could be some relevance to the SKX operating environment also.

Firstly, a strengthening commodity cycle resulted in increased input costs for VTX. This increase was largely offset by the effect of an appreciating currency.

Secondly, increasing freight rates also impacted on costs for VTX - they highlighted a 20% increase in freight costs for transporting finished product across the Tasman. VTX may look to build/acquire an add-on facility within Australia to assist with this issue.

I am thinking it is likely that similar increases to costs will have been incurred by SKX. Just a case of waiting to see how they responded to the environment in which they operate...
I personally am confident that they will have taken it in their stride.

Regards JAMP
NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
Unlisted: KCE SUB

Noddy
30-08-2004, 03:26 PM
Not the most exciting stock on the market but pays a good dividend and on a low PE. Good prospects but not spectacular.

Probably has been sold down a bit far since their profit announcement.MD probably agrees having purchased another 200,000 on market at $1.26.

Have handled their FX exposure well and I wonder if will have some upside if/when we see the $ weaker.

JAMP
30-08-2004, 07:00 PM
I don't believe there was that much negativity in the result to have justified the sell down to present levels. What chances of this stock easing further I wonder? Only asking because at this point in time I am more inclined to be buying than selling.

Regards JAMP
NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
Unlisted: BRK KCE

foodee
30-08-2004, 07:17 PM
Jamp
Off loaded after result. Was original holder with top ups. Feeling it will stay in doldrum for a while, so to 'better' pastures.
Weather has been against farming with quite some damage. OK the cows still get milk etc. but farmers will be spending less despite insurance cover some of their replacement costs. Just MHO

horus1
30-08-2004, 07:55 PM
shaky ,they have been buying bsness which wont give adequate return ,and there is a $1m. guarantee comes of rev.in the next yr which will depress profit .

winner69
17-09-2004, 06:47 PM
quote:Originally posted by JAMP

I don't believe there was that much negativity in the result to have justified the sell down to present levels. What chances of this stock easing further I wonder? Only asking because at this point in time I am more inclined to be buying than selling.

Regards JAMP
NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
Unlisted: BRK KCE

With it still hanging around the 120 mark suppose you are in buying mood Jamp


Presume div of 4 cents still to be paid as well, if so the way it ranges between 120 / 130 maube a reasonably quick 14 cents in this

limegreen
08-10-2004, 02:06 PM
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/skx.gif

I've screwed this up fairly badly, and I can't be bothered remedying my mistakes (such as cutting off the dates, changing it to a log scale, resizing it etc. as it would take another 20min). However, I thought it was interesting that this stock has got hammered after each and every half and full year profit report, then rebounding in the interim.

It seems that their results are never quite as good as hoped, but people are then attracted back in by the dividend yield (which looks better after the price drops each time).

Also in the news today, SKX are looking at moving production of Flomax to China.

Stock Man
08-10-2004, 03:03 PM
Interesting observation Limegreen.

cheers

limegreen
08-10-2004, 03:07 PM
Cheers. It's my first time attempting to discuss trends like this. With reference to Phaedrus's comments in the SCT thread at the moment, it will be interesting to see if the current short term trend resumes and it agains gets up to $1.35, which seems to be it's long term point of resistance, whether it will break it, and whether it will lead to an explosive break out.

Phaedrus
20-10-2004, 09:34 AM
LimeGreen asked for a critique of his SKX chart :-

This was a worthwhile chart, making an interesting and pertinent observation. I would have mentioned the (bearish) Double Top formation though, along with the fact that SKX is no longer in an uptrend. It has stopped making higher highs and appears to be going into a 117 - 135 trading range. Stocks with limited growth prospects and a reasonable sustainable dividend can stay in trading ranges for years. Some people might prefer to view this as a very shallow ascending triangle.

Re the chart itself :-
Too wide (but you know that)
Line charts are much clearer than bar charts
Extraneous indicators clutter a chart. (You have 3 moving averages and an RSI but do not refer to them at all)
When the price range covered by the chart is fairly narrow, as in this case, it does not matter whether the price scale is linear or log.
These are comments, not criticisms!

limegreen
20-10-2004, 09:50 AM
Thanks for the comment. I appreciate my charts are cluttered (if I was making a presentation of my own data I'd never make such a graph!). Your suggestion that I use a line chart would be plotting closing prices? And would you recommend that I switch to those for the charts I use myself as well as those I post? I've noted that double tops (such as recent MFT) appear much clearer in your charts.

Phaedrus
20-10-2004, 10:28 AM
"Your suggestion is that I use a line chart, plotting closing prices?"
Yes.

"Would you recommend that I switch to those for the charts I use myself as well as those I post?"
Yes. Unless you are using a short-term system that utilises intraday prices. In that case I would recommend that you use Candlesticks - I find them a lot clearer than OHLC price bars.

There is of course a nice compromise available here. Plot the prices in very light grey candlesticks then superimpose a bold 1 day Simple Moving Average of the Close. That way you get both.

Candlesticks are little mentioned here, other than by Kittydashwood. They are very valuable. A good book to start with would be "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" by Steve Nison.

limegreen
20-10-2004, 10:44 AM
Thanks for the tips. Much appreciated. I've had a little play with candlesticks, so may do a little more reading.

Snoopy
21-10-2004, 12:50 PM
Still at the library (see suggestions forum). Just testing.

SNOOPY

Snoopy
21-10-2004, 09:29 PM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus


I would be interested in others views on the fundamentals of this stock. No rampers or knockers please. Reasoned factual balanced open-minded comment is what I would value here. TIA.


I'm a few months late with your request Phaedrus. I don't hold this share myself, but ran my ruler over it, albeit lightly, recently.

I see Skellmax a primarily a high tech farm supplies company. Quite a bit of noise was made as to how their 25% of sales to the US have been hedged at US48c for four years. But, taking into account you can often glean as much from what was omitted compared with what was said, I wonder what they have done about Australia? Perhaps their currency hedging (or not as the case may be) in that market doesn't look so clever?

Australia had a severe drought last season and milk production in the dairy sector contracted by 11% and relief from the drought since has not been universal. A large number of dairying customers will have suffered significant erosion of their balance sheets which will be acting as a drag on overall sector confidence and spending.

Meanwhile in the US, where supplementary feed represents 50-70% of the variable cost of looking after an animal, unusually strong corn and soy bean prices have significantly increased farmers input costs decreasing profitability despite the weak USD. These higher feed costs were largely weather related.

By contrast , despite the odd weather related flooding events, the dairy industry in NZ has been having a much more easy time of it. I think that with SKX, the relatively flat share price performance (compared to other rurally based shares) is a case of export markets hurting them. IMO in terms of: input costs, the general political environment, the intellectual capital of the farming community and the sheer growability of the farmland; NZ is difficult to beat. Furthermore I think NZs competitive advantage will be sustainable in those four areas.

Thus in my view those rural sector companies that rely on overseas farmers to make up a large chunk of their business are (over the full business cycle) likely to be at a long term disadvantage. Granted a purely NZ based company may still be more volatile during the business cycle, but that is not necessarily a bad thing for traders!

I have done very well out of WRI over the last year, and considered switching to SKX before thinking through the above. IMO, WRI and PGG are still the better longer term bets in this sector of the market.

SNOOPY

discl: hold WRI

winner69
30-10-2004, 01:52 PM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

......Stocks with limited growth prospects and a reasonable sustainable dividend can stay in trading ranges for years.


looks like this is the way it is going. Heading towards the 117 again so is a candidate for a short term trade as the 117 / 135 range looks pretty strong

Even a positive AGM report didn't do much to raise excitment about this stock

limegreen
30-10-2004, 03:03 PM
I'd imagine that when interest rates start to drop (mid next year), then it's yield (esp if there are any divi increases) could also play a part.

limegreen
08-02-2005, 09:33 AM
SKX released their half-year results on the 13th of February last year and the year before. As I noted on the chart on the previous page, the price has tended to rise in prior to the announcement, and then fall sharply subsequently. It certainly seems to be rising as 'expected', but will it drop?

JAMP
08-02-2005, 03:20 PM
<center>&lt;tongue in cheek&gt;</center>So what you are saying limegreen is that there is a strong correlation between Feb 13 half-year profit announcements and the share being subsequently sold down...great news, the half-year profit announcement is highly unlikely to be made on Feb 13 this year.

On a more serious note, we shall simply have to wait and see how SKX holds up after the half-year result is announced. Fingers crossed.

Regards JAMP
NZX: MCH MFT MVN PPG RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX
Unlisted: BRK

limegreen
09-02-2005, 10:51 AM
No, there's a strong correlation between half AND full year profit announcements and the stock being sold down. This suggests that everybody is hoping for something that they don't get. And yes, it is highly unlikely to be Feb 13 this year, and I'm also hoping that it holds up after announcement, and better yet, that it might break resistance at $1.35

DISC: SKX

winner69
09-02-2005, 04:11 PM
quote:Originally posted by limegreen

SKX released their half-year results on the 13th of February last year and the year before. As I noted on the chart on the previous page, the price has tended to rise in prior to the announcement, and then fall sharply subsequently. It certainly seems to be rising as 'expected', but will it drop?


You were right with the falling away ......obviously didn't get what they expected

limegreen
09-02-2005, 04:11 PM
Bah. This is not a time I'm enjoying things go as I thought they might [B)][V]:( *sigh*

Hmmmm. I think I'll have a look at depth before open tomorrow and consider my position, and if not then, at close. I've held for quite a while, but compared to the rest of my portfolio, the performance is lamentable. I claim to believe in culling stodgy stocks, and was planning to distribute proceeds from SKX to better long-term holds. I was actually thinking of putting the money in FBU. Should have done it yesterday!!!

winner69
09-02-2005, 06:17 PM
Sometimes wonder with what is going on with this lot

Over the last 6 months sales up $10M and profit about the same

Extrapolate out for a year on guidance given sales will be up $20M plus but profit up marginally ... some strategy that.

Limegreen - I say that 117/135 range will still be here in a years time ... time to move on?

limegreen
09-02-2005, 09:05 PM
quote:time to move on?

I agree. SKX is only just outperforming my mortage (my overarching benchmark). I managed to time my entry fairly well, it's had a long enough chance to make a move and isn't (I've held since May '03, the last of my broker advised picks FWIW). Cheers for the moral support.

winner69
10-02-2005, 06:54 AM
Heres the optimistic side of the story limegreen ... but the numbers seem to be saying something else .. like I said $20M+ increase in sales for a marginal bottom line improvement

Any way the price might go up today if a few punters read this article in the Herald today

Acquisitions put Skellmax on target

10.02.05
by Georgina Bond


Agriculture equipment manufacturer Skellmax Industries says it is on target to reach its full-year earnings forecast after new acquisitions boosted its first-half profits.
Managing director Donald Stewart said new acquisitions had driven the rise in operating revenue.

Its flagship acquisition to date - Australian company Deks Industries - was trading above expectation after just one year, said Stewart.

Revenue from its overseas businesses increased from 44 per cent to 49 per cent of its revenue.

Stewart said the result was a strong start to the year, and the company was heading towards its full-year profit target in the vicinity of $12.5 million. Last year's profit was $11.6 million.

Sales of $25.8 million in its agricultural division made up 43 per cent of group revenue, but early summer weather had affected farmer spending, said Stewart.

International sales for rubberware and dairy vacuums had been more buoyant.

New customers for vacuum pumps and dairy rubberware were found in Korea and Asia and were due to come on stream in the next half of the year.

Stewart said the company was looking for acquisitions within its agricultural and industrial divisions.

Benefits from the recent relocation of the major part of its Flomax vacuum pump factory from Auckland to China would be captured in the 2005-2006 result.

Skellmax still has two local manufacturing plants, and Stewart said that although the challenges were increasing, it was still sustainable to manufacture locally.

"New Zealand's a good place to manufacture with good quality people and our technical expertise is here," he said.

"The competitive environment gets tougher every year so we feel the pressure of that ... but its not at a stage where it's capitulated

limegreen
10-02-2005, 01:16 PM
I set a stop this morning in case there was a bit of a bounce, so I'm not out (yet). I still think I'm going to sell, and I should probably quite quibbling about a few cents movement, but may wait until close to decide.

Steve
10-02-2005, 01:19 PM
Well, I will put my hand up to say that I purchased some SKX late yesterday afternoon...:)

limegreen
10-02-2005, 01:43 PM
Did you purchase for the yield, or because you believe there is some upside to the price? I'm sadly convinced that it's stuck in its present trading range, and the yield doesn't appeal. I've tightened my stop this afternoon, and will be out at the end of this run. If it were to break through $1.35, I'd consider holding for a while longer.

cycat64
12-02-2005, 05:51 PM
We had the usual fall in price of this stock immediately after the six month result. It looked flat and once again there must have been disappointment. However, it bounced back on Friday as the figures were scrutinised further. It wasn't a bad result at all. Good yield,good management, limited downside, prospects of growth. There must surely be someone out there starting to have a sniff. It might be time to accumulate.

JAMP
13-02-2005, 11:23 AM
A fairly standard half-year announcement from a company that consistently sticks to their knitting.

I see little downside with regards prospects in the near term.

Everyone in New Zealand should know that summer didn't kick into gear this year quite as early as it ought to have. Whilst this subdued the inwards cashflow for dairy farmers prior to Christmas, the growth in my vege garden of late suggests that there will be many a farmer with sufficient milk supply to attend to routine maintenance around the cowshed with confidence.

They have grown their revenue streams through the Deks acquisition, and by all accounts it has tucked into the operation efficiently. That is not to say that there are not still some synergy benefits to be had from this quarter.

The big question for me is what actual benefits producing out of China brings SKX versus the anticipated benefits. Probably still twelve months too early to know the answer to this one. Judging by their prudent approach to running the business I don't expect SKX will have been overly optimistic with regards expectations.

Roll on the full-year announcement.

Regards JAMP
NZX: MCH MFT MVN PPG RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX
Unlisted: BRK

Steve
21-02-2005, 01:11 PM
quote:Originally posted by limegreen

Did you purchase for the yield, or because you believe there is some upside to the price? I'm sadly convinced that it's stuck in its present trading range, and the yield doesn't appeal. I've tightened my stop this afternoon, and will be out at the end of this run. If it were to break through $1.35, I'd consider holding for a while longer.


I bought in on the drop following the profit announcement, speculating that the price may bounce higher once people looked thru the numbers. When it appeared that the price was not going to bounce above the resistance level, I sold out late Friday afternoon @ 134c making 2.3% for the 1.5weeks I held or 86% annualised.:)

Now that I am out, watch it break thru 135c...

limegreen
21-02-2005, 01:24 PM
I haven't actually sold yet, as SKX is still respecting quite a short term trendline (about 6 weeks). And this afternoon, it looks like dear old SKX might be about to have a moment of truth, having just touched $1.35 on very thin volume. Will it stay in it's fairly well established trading range, or will we see an upside breakout. fingers crossed!

DISC: SKX

Steve
22-02-2005, 02:35 PM
LG, it is probably because I sold on Friday. You may thank me next week[?]

limegreen
22-02-2005, 03:00 PM
I'm glad to see that I'm not the only one who has that effect. I'm also considering offloading VTX, so anyone who wants a quick buck should buy now to take advantage of my poor judgement.

limegreen
02-03-2005, 01:27 PM
quote:I'm also considering offloading VTX, so anyone who wants a quick buck should buy now to take advantage of my poor judgement.

Aha. ahahahah. aha. aha. ****. Wasn't that a prescient comment.



OK, but now for SKX comment. I've been watching the following pattern form over the last few weeks, and have been very tempted to post it a number of times. It is coming close to a close now, so it is perhaps timely. SKX has been in a trading range bounded by $1.35 for over 12months now. However, the sp is respecting a fairly short term uptrend which is about to conflict with the $1.35 resistance, that is, and ascending triangle. Such formations are apparently (http://www.marketscreen.com/help/chartpatterns/default.asp?hideHF=&Num=101) usually followed by an upside break out, but it will be interesting to see what happens over the next two weeks.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/skx2march05.gif

Steve
03-03-2005, 06:19 PM
Does BIG P have a current take on the SKX chart?

Much appreciated if he does...

Phaedrus
03-03-2005, 08:40 PM
Steve,
There is no change in the SKX chart - the year-long trading range continues, though in this particular case it is a bit narrow to trade effectively. The OBV continues to rise - this stock is being accumulated, not distributed - a breakout to the upside is therefore much more likely than a downside breakout.
Stocks can stay in trading ranges like this for extended periods of time, going nowhere for years. Anyone wanting to buy into SKX would be well advised to wait for an upside breakout, in my opinion.

http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/SKX33001.gif

Steve
04-03-2005, 10:09 AM
It's interesting what the difference in scale makes between LGs chart and Ps chart...

limegreen
04-03-2005, 01:02 PM
Oh absolutely. I wouldn't recommend anyone buy SKX now (well except in as much as I'd like to see an upside breakout). I bought in around July '03, and had no knowledge of TA back then. The purpose of my chart is to point out the hope I have that now might be the time of the breakout, or at least maximise the small gains that I've made. I'm not so optimistic as to not have a stop set just below the trendline on my chart!! And I did mention that SKX was in a trading range, as has been noted by Phaedrus before.

Or more explicitly, my chart defines my current little gamble. I'd like to sell SKX, however, to the extent that there is some hope of an upside breakout, I'd rather not sell a day to early like my recent falling out with VTX. The current mini-uptrend defines the gamble boundary.

limegreen
08-03-2005, 09:07 AM
A small trade went through at $1.36 yesterday before dropping back to close at $1.35. No sales so far this morning...
Waiting with baited breath... or should that be a baited hook?

Update Has traded as high as $1.37 today. Will be interesting to see whether the breakout is sustained.

winner69
11-03-2005, 06:26 PM
limegreen .. at 133 I take it you have given up on that breakout

That half year result wasn't too flash and I was surprised the share price has even got to this level

However was pretty good for you if you got a few more cents

JAMP
11-03-2005, 08:37 PM
I beg to differ W69 about the prospects for SKX going forward.

The SKX shareprice broke above $1-35 immediately prior to the RBNZ lifting the OCR 25bps. It could be argued that the OCR increase spooked the wider NZX market short-term - I can certainly vouch that the general movement in my shares today and yesterday has been downwards. Therefore it could also be argued that had the RBNZ sat on their hands, many shares (possibly SKX included) would not have been sold down.

Of course the OCR rise is not all doom and gloom. I seem to recall that it was recently advised that SKX was migrating in part from a net-exporter position to that of a net-importer position. One of the side-effects from the OCR rise is expected to be a strengthening exchange rate (I'm talking against TWI, not $US). Providing SKX don't get too greedy, they have an excellent opportunity to lock in some medium to long term hedging. You could say SKX are in the unique position of changing trains at a most opportune time.

I predict that the $1-35 ceiling will be broken in the next 3-6 months. Just a matter of being patient.

Regards JAMP
NZX: MCH MVN PPG RBD SAN SKX SPE SPN VTX
Unlisted: BRK

limegreen
12-03-2005, 09:17 AM
quote: limegreen .. at 133 I take it you have given up on that breakout

That would be correct. I'm generally pretty patient, and SKX has treated me pretty well (25% incl. divis). However, I'm in need of some cash at the moment, plus I feel there are some better opportunities out there. I also feel while long-term there might be a little upside, I'm not sure that it's going to hit $3 in the next few years (like some other stocks I've bought at this level have, e.g., MFT).

winner69
24-03-2005, 08:19 PM
Back to the middle of that trading range again and chances are that it could go back to the 115/117

Limegreen - you timed the exit well ...

winner69
30-03-2005, 07:55 PM
Down to 120 ... has it gone ex div yet?

Whatever you wouldn't expect to see it much lower than this but with so much negative sentiment around not a good time to try a short term trade with a relatively tight trading range

winner69
06-04-2005, 07:28 PM
Only the last trade of the day but a 115 close is below the green support line on the chart that Phaedrus posted a while go

Bottom of that trading range or the start of something new?

We'll know over the next few weeks or so

Down 16% over the last few weeks is more than the market in general has gone as sentiment has turned a bit sour ... suggests a certain unease from a some investors ... todays volume was above average as well .... maybe more are starting to agree with me that the half year wasn't too flash after all

Tempting to have a go at that trading range but too many bad vibes put me off

Lizard
06-04-2005, 08:46 PM
My thoughts on reviewing recently were:

1. Debt levels are high following Deks acquisition. Given the dividend levels and reduced cashflow, they will have trouble reducing this in a hurry. Meanwhile, interest costs are going up.

2. Exchange rates tending on the unfavourable side a present, so maybe a net benefit if the NZD weakens.

3. Will the growing trend to once-a-day milking affect sales?

From my analysis, it looks like a steady business that won't go anywhere in a hurry. With rising interest rates, it is less valuable as a low volatility-high yield play. Its time may come, but not yet. Still holding a few in the "conservative portfolio" I picked up at $1.05 though.

limegreen
06-04-2005, 10:24 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

Tempting to have a go at that trading range but too many bad vibes put me off


I'd noticed that it'd breached it's lower bound as well. I'd seriously not consider buying. Even if one were to argue that this is little more than a slightly lower low in the trading range, you'll note that there are usually good buying opportunities much later in the 6 month cycle. And if there aren't, there are probably greener pastures anyway. I'd be leaving this one alone for a little while. I think today's downward movement may be quite significant. A cautious person might wait a little more.

For those who might have been watching, I've had a recent sweat over FBU, but although it was below some of my sell-signals (but not a floor level like SKX has just gone through), it did bubble back up. If I was still holding, I'd be watching and thinking about selling.

Snow Leopard
15-04-2005, 07:07 AM
quote:
Skellmax out of top 50

15.04.05 5.40am


Skellmax Industries is dropping out of the sharemarket’s top 50.

The New Zealand Exchange said the rubber products company would be deleted from the NZSX 50 Index on May 2. Its place would be taken by Macquarie Goodman Property Trust which would also be added to the NZSX 50 Portfolio Index and the NZSX MidCap Index at Skellmax’s expense. Skellmax will join the NZX SCI Index for smaller companies and Macquarie Goodman will be removed.


This will put a dint in the OBV come [the end of] May and probably affect the SP negatively.

JAMP
15-04-2005, 07:01 PM
I may just have to top up my smallholding in June/July. If you think about it...who is about to become top of the pecking order to be included in the sharemarket's top 50 should one of the current participants delist?

Regards JAMP
NZX: FTX MCH MVN PPG RBD SAN SKX SPE SPN VTX
Unlisted: BRK

winner69
15-04-2005, 07:31 PM
One of reasons that the long term perforamance an index like the NZX50 looks better than it really is .... they cull out the losers every now and again

A sort of survivorship bias

donner
16-04-2005, 09:08 AM
Yet it is yielding 9% on divs. Once the interest rates top out this one might be woth looking at.

JAMP
25-05-2005, 07:31 PM
VTX in the process of de-listing now.

Does this open the door for SXK to re-enter the NZSX 50 index?

Or are they saving that spot for Vector?

Regards JAMP
NZX: FTX MCH MVN NZR PPG RBD SAN SKX SPE SPN
Unlisted: BRK

Snow Leopard
26-05-2005, 05:56 AM
SKX is not necessarily the largest company not in the NZX50 even though it was only recently bumped. There are some rules to prevent too much change and companies doing the hokey-kokey.
I would guess that some company other than SKX will join the club and come Vectors admission yet another company will be expelled.

kittydashwood
31-05-2005, 07:21 AM
NZ Opportunity
May 05 2005 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)


First NZ Capital/CSFB has upgraded Skellmax Industries (SKX.NZ) to Outperform from Neutral.Since March 9 the stock has fallen 15.3%, compared to a decline in the NZSX50 Index of 8%, this despite the company’s February profit result of NZ$6.3m coming in slightly ahead of the broker’s NZ$6m forecast.





At the same time the company reiterated it remained on target to meet its full-year profit forecast of about NZ$12.5m, though the broker’s forecast is just below this figure at NZ$12.3m, which was increased from NZ$12.1m following the profit result. The broker’s earnings forecasts for FY06 and FY07 remained largely unchanged.

It is the broker’s view that the company’s two major divisions, Industrial and Agri, both recorded solid performance in the period, with Industrial benefiting from higher contributions from recent acquisitions Deks Industries and Bisley Environmental, while Agri recorded an increase in both sales and EBITDA margin. EBITDA margins from the Industrial division fell slightly in the period, as did the return on net assets. The broker notes further acquisitions remain likely as net debt/EBITDA is only 1.1x, allowing for several acquisitions of a similar size to Deks, which cost $4.2m.

Another attraction to the stock is its gross dividend yield of more than 8%, the result of strong cash flow generation in its operations. While the broker points out earnings growth is currently below market averages, there is scope for improvement to margins through the recent move to relocate some production to China.

First NZ Capital/CSFB has a 12-month target of NZ$1.30 on the stock, which implies a total return of 33.9% for the period. Achievement of the target price would see the stock generate an excess return compared to the market of 15.9%, justifying the broker’s increased rating.

limegreen
13-10-2005, 01:06 PM
Be interesting to see close today, but it seems the recent run is losing steam, and looking to close back below $1.35, which doesn't bode too well. That resistance level has held for a loooooonnnnng time.
I haven't been back in, although buying and selling on the latest marked trend wouldn't have been too badder wee deal.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/skx13oct05.gif

JAMP
13-10-2005, 07:08 PM
Hmmm, this stock really struggles to keep the market interest for any length of time. Probably another five months before the interim result is announced.

Good buying opportunities in the offing if the share continues to slide. Perhaps I should be withdrawing my buy order for more RBD?

Regards JAMP
NZX: AIA LPL MCH MVN NOG PPG RBD SAN SKX SPN
NZAX: CVT SAT
Unlisted: BRK

Lizard
30-11-2005, 01:30 PM
Seems to be flagging. Might be time for another chart?

limegreen
30-11-2005, 02:13 PM
It's been unhappy for a while. Not fond of a high dollar I recollect. And perhaps they thought the dollar would drop so had less hedging? Who knows. Certainly not much on my radar. Still glad I sold out a long time ago...

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/skx30nov05.gif

Lizard
01-12-2005, 05:45 AM
Thanks limegreen. I tend to ignore the falls when the whole market is going down as it was in October, but when the market is looking more positive and the share price still keeps falling, I get more worried. Plus, my look at the charts suggested OBV had just broken trend too.

I don't think its the exchange rate - this from the last FY result:


quote:"Increasing production from the Company's factory in China means the Group is beginning to move from a net export towards a net import position in USD terms"


How is the dairy season going?

bambi
02-12-2005, 08:30 AM
Limegreen, on your volume chart what do the red and green bars mean. Are the green bars positive days and the red bars negative days? Or is it something else?

Thanks
Bambi

limegreen
02-12-2005, 09:32 AM
quote:Originally posted by bambi

Limegreen, on your volume chart what do the red and green bars mean. Are the green bars positive days and the red bars negative days? Or is it something else?

Thanks
Bambi


Sort of. They're just freebies from findata.co.nz
and from what I can tell they're intraday movements not relative to yesterday's close. That is, if the share closes higher than it opens it is green (even if the close is lower than the day before). Or at least I think that is the case, it's a little on the punk side, so I'm not sure how much credence I'd put in it!!

Lizard
14-12-2005, 06:24 PM
Wanted to post a chart of OBV here, but couldn't get it to work...

Looking rather worrisome for those of us still holding.

Phaedrus
14-12-2005, 07:18 PM
Liz,
Herewith an updated OBV for you - I guess it confirms your worries to some extent. Personally, I wouldn't want to make too much of this chart - it is really just the meanderings of a stock going nowhere. While SKX is in a 3 month downtrend, this may be nothing more than the continuation of an extended trading range.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/SKX1214001.gif

Lizard
15-12-2005, 05:42 AM
Thanks Phaedrus.

There is in an interesting pattern in that chart - most of the lows are where SKX went ex-dividend in March and October, with the sp rising again afterwards. However, this time, it has carried on down.

Also, would have guessed support was at $1.20, and falling below that would be significant - alot more contact points than your line at $1.17?

Phaedrus
15-12-2005, 09:05 AM
Liz, Support at 117 or 120? - Same thing. Support is best visualised as a zone rather than a price point exact to the cent.
In either case, the "real" support level would be the intraday Low, rather than the Close as plotted here.

Lizard
18-01-2006, 01:48 PM
This is definitely premature, but just have a feeling that possibly SKX wants to move up again - though I have no idea how far...hopefully by more than the 2 cents it is up today...anyway, might be just worth watching for a couple of days.

leanmeanfightingmachine
18-01-2006, 09:56 PM
i follow this stock also. i had a feeling it was going down, people might just be giving up on it as it has flat lined for so long. it's weird one alright. that spike i think was around the time everyone was saying the dollar was about to go down hard.

might have to sit this one out before i buy some.

LMFM


quote:Originally posted by Lizard

This is definitely premature, but just have a feeling that possibly SKX wants to move up again - though I have no idea how far...hopefully by more than the 2 cents it is up today...anyway, might be just worth watching for a couple of days.

Lizard
26-01-2006, 10:57 AM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

This is definitely premature, but just have a feeling that possibly SKX wants to move up again - though I have no idea how far...hopefully by more than the 2 cents it is up today...anyway, might be just worth watching for a couple of days.


Well, it looks like the tea-leaves were reading correctly...

Latest acquisition has pushed the price up this morning.

Cooper
26-01-2006, 11:28 AM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard


quote:Originally posted by Lizard

This is definitely premature, but just have a feeling that possibly SKX wants to move up again - though I have no idea how far...hopefully by more than the 2 cents it is up today...anyway, might be just worth watching for a couple of days.


Well, it looks like the tea-leaves were reading correctly...

Latest acquisition has pushed the price up this morning.


Nice picking Liz. SKX is still the only NZX co I own at the moment, and I'm kicking myself that I didn't pick up a few more recently. Did you get any more?

Lizard
26-01-2006, 11:34 AM
No, didn't get any more Cooper. I'm too slow moving to trade short term and this could be yet another short term thing...

However, I'm still hopeful that the HY result will show some strength and kick it out of the ruts it keeps trading in.

Cooper
26-01-2006, 11:42 AM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

No, didn't get any more Cooper. I'm too slow moving to trade short term and this could be yet another short term thing...

However, I'm still hopeful that the HY result will show some strength and kick it out of the ruts it keeps trading in.


I have the feeling SKX is regarded as a company with very little excitement to offer the market, and that's contrary to my own opinion. Maybe a good result would change that, but to be honest I'm a little sceptical. Might need a longer term view until all the benefits from the acquisitions become apparent, and until certain trade factors move into SKX's favour... but you're better at that stuff than I.

JAMP
26-01-2006, 08:29 PM
Yes, I half missed the bus a little on this one too.

I doubled my holding in Dec 05, and was in the process of getting the funding lined up to double my holding again. I was even encouraging a work colleague with shares in SKX to buy more.

Happy to be in the black again with this stock, but kicking myself a little that I hadn't backed my conviction with a few more dollars. My work colleague is kicking herself a little too because she hadn't quite got around to acting on my enthusiasm either.

Regards JAMP
NZX: AIA LPL MCH MPM MVN NWF NWFOA NZO NZOOD PPG RBD SAN SKX SPN
NZAX: CVT SAT
Unlisted: BRK

Lizard
08-02-2006, 03:01 PM
HY result out - 5% reduction in NPAT due to higher interest costs and amortisation from new businesses. Targetting $13m NPAT for full year. In the short term, I suspect some analysts will be disappointed with this result. I also think they will be concerned regarding some of the commentary and the expiry of the very favourable forward cover in early 2007. Though I think Skellmax are moving towards being fx neutral.

Really going to need time to see if they can turn these acquisitions into cashflow. It is crucial that they meet or exceed the targetted NPAT for FY - and hopefully by then, can back up some of the more positive commentary with progress on new sales.

My conservative valuation is $1.62, but I think it is a high risk buy and would recommend waiting another 6 months for indications of progress.

BRICKS
08-02-2006, 04:52 PM
THIS is a really Good gum boot company one of the better on NZX and should be in one,, mite one DAY.. [8D]

rmbbrave
28-03-2006, 11:08 PM
Name change and new code

Now : Skellerup Holdings Limited

Code Now : SKL

Might be time to cahnge the name of this thread Phaedrus

SKL back in the NZX50

"Rubber and foam products manufacturer Skellerup Holdings, will also be added to the NZX50, replacing AXA Asia Pacific Holding Ltd, the exchange added."

SP has been pretty flat - listed on the NZ Stock Exchange on 19 June 2002 with the issue of 100 million shares at $1.15 each - now still only at 1.33.

This latest news should give it a boost though.

For F/A fans they have a nice "invester fact sheet" here.

http://www.skellerupholdings.co.nz/

Click "invester centre"

rmbbrave
31-03-2006, 07:18 PM
I bought 10,000 of these at 1.33 on the 29th of March.

They closed at 1.40 today.

Did anyone else buy SKL because it is about to enter the NZX50?

Base Trader
01-04-2006, 12:59 AM
Yep - bought a few. Suprised to see it get to NZ$1.40 though in a day though.

rmbbrave
02-05-2006, 10:26 PM
This trade hasn't worked out.

I sold them all today for 1.33.

My losses were 29.90 x 2 in brokerage.

By this afternoon SKL was down to 1.31.

I imagine SKL will be booted out of the NZX 50 and be replaced by newly listed Delegats, which has a bigger market cap.

Happy Camper
03-05-2006, 06:33 PM
Small compensation, but at least you picked up the 3 cent dividend.

I don't believe that SKL will be the first to leave the NZX50. Based on the NZX March advisory they are ranked around 48th, so in theory there will be two to leave before they get the boot! (sic)

Also there is the small question of where DGL rank after accounting for the number of shares that are not in free float.

Cheers

cycat64
14-07-2006, 06:28 PM
Anybody got any thoughts about the jump in SKL today? Up 10c and at one stage 17c. I recall that this company was moving to be dollar neutral so there needs to be other reasons.

Sid
14-07-2006, 06:49 PM
From memory it's traded a few times in the $1.40's without going beyond there. Interesting move today.

Base Trader
14-07-2006, 10:07 PM
It has traded at $1.40 as it entered the NZSE50 index. That is not the case here.

The trades are rats and mice - but totalling $121k. The fact these small purchasers are chasing this share up shows a certain amount of determination and the market seeing some value beyond its normal trading range. Of note is that SKL was swimming against the tide of a weaker market. I am no technical expert but this is a break in my opinion.

The next question is why?

The financials are due out 16 August so are being compiled - which maybe a reason if the dataroom integrity has been comprimised.

Then there is alwats the potential for aquisition activity - which some people are aware of.

Finally - there is the good ole rumour of something which has the punters scrambling for shares.

However, as a good sized stake holder of SKL I just hope it is not another false dawn.

rmbbrave
15-07-2006, 09:11 AM
Skellerup shares sharply on takeover speculation
15 July 2006

Shares in Skellerup rose 7.5 per cent yesterday with speculation it may be a takeover target cited as the reason.


However, the speculation was vague and turnover was light at 49,000.

ASB Securities broker Stephen Wright said Hellaby Holdings was seen as the prime predator suspect.

Against a very weak market, Skellerup shares rose 10c to $1.42, its highest price since October. It briefly touched a year high of $1.49.

A company spokesman said the company was unaware of any approach by a predator. He said both the chief executive Donald Stewart and chief financial officer Jim Greenwood were on holiday.

Analysts had been calling the company to ask what was happening, he said.

"We've got our annual result coming out in August, but we haven't done anything unusual."

He noted that the jump was only on light turnover.

"There's a lot of money floating around and they are all looking for stocks that may have some potential, and I guess that maybe somebody has looked at us. We are as much in the dark as anybody."

Skellerup has a wide open share register with AMP with 6 per cent having the largest holding. ACC has just under 3 per cent with 3 million shares.

Happy Camper
19-07-2006, 08:08 PM
I think that based on the traded volume the other day the scenario below is more likely

A buyer/broker bought at market instead of at limit. The low volumes on the sell side caused the price to spike upward sharply. By the time the order was pulled/filled the shareprice had risen around 10%. A few others joined the feeding frenzy (just in case corporate activity was the order of the day), such action helping fuel the rumour further.

This Happy Camper saw the spike whilst at work. It looked promising as an exit, but I have been guilty of selling out too quickly too often to be sucked in on this occasion - Murphys Law says that this is probably the one occasion that I should have been sucked in.

Cheers

Base Trader
19-07-2006, 09:07 PM
SKX has a good market position and product/business suite but will likely suffer at the hands of higher petroleum and pretochem feedstock prices.

Atleast they have got their currency hedginbg spot on with the residual of their sub 50 cent hedging rolling off over the next 12 months.

I did not see that they used derivatives to protect feedstock prices. Can anyone confirm or deny?

Lizard
10-08-2006, 10:55 AM
SKL share price has been going nowhere for a while now. Has stayed "cheap" right through the cycle and now perhaps harder to gauge with forward outlook mixed. But there is still some buyer interest in recent days, despite an otherwise dull market. Will be interested to see if it comes to anything.

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-8/1204598/big.chart.gif

Lizard
16-08-2006, 03:02 PM
As the chart foreshadowed, SKL result was a little ahead of expectations. May help to relieve analysts worries as to how well SKL are digesting acquisitions and handling some difficult market conditions. Outlook seems positive. Dividend raised, though (wisely) with a DRP to help keep the debt levels under control. Overall positive and have raised my valuation to $1.67.

Base Trader
16-08-2006, 07:20 PM
I will be interested to see the detail on the items between EBTIDA and NPAT lines and specifically the interest leverage result.

Result is broadly positive though and they appear to have a profile with considerable off-shore revenue, a weakening NZD and sales to industry that will maintain robust performance through the weak NZ cycle we are entering.

Lizard
25-09-2006, 03:51 PM
Phaedrus, is this stock worth another chart yet? SKL share price has been moving steadily upwards in a weak market. What signal would make it a "buy" in your books? Also, am wondering if you pay more attention to stock signals when they are against market direction or not? (I instinctively tend to treat them as more significant).

I like SKL valuation and management, though there are plenty of threats in raw material prices, product demand and exchange rate movements that make me wary. I have owned them for years and bought more earlier this year, so am really just interested in understanding how you would read this. TIA, Liz

PS: Could you please put the code "SKL" in the title so people can find this thread easily :)

limegreen
25-09-2006, 07:08 PM
Lizard, if I dare to pre-empt... I think a volume spike and good hit in OBV would presage good news. At the moment OBV is just crabbing sideways...

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/skl22sept06.gif

If it bursts through $1.45 resistance, then that might be exciting. however, when it went through $1.35, and briefly closed at $1.36, that didn't end up much of lasting breakout. However, maybe other things are picking up? Anyway, at the moment there is no sign of "the smart money moving in"...

Lizard
26-09-2006, 06:53 AM
quote:Originally posted by limegreen
If it bursts through $1.45 resistance, then that might be exciting.

Thanks LG. I vote it breaks $1.45 this week. [8D]

limegreen
26-09-2006, 10:57 AM
Perhaps I should re-emphasise bursting. For it to be a sound omen, it needs to happen on good volume, I think. Good luck and Good morning!

Lizard
06-10-2006, 11:42 AM
How are we doing with the "bursting"? $1.50 now...I'm quite interested as to when/if the chartists would actually buy into this.

Phaedrus
06-10-2006, 12:20 PM
Lizard, Statistically, the most reliable of all TA buy signals is a breakout above previous resistance. The longer the resistance level has held and the more times it has been tested, the more explosive the breakout. The odds of an upside breakout from a trading range are enhanced if the trading range was preceded by an uptrend.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/SKL106001.gif

Lizard
06-10-2006, 12:36 PM
Thanks Phaedrus. Well, that looks hopeful. Still holding and hoping with those shares I bought at $1.05 - unfortunately not the last time they were $1.05 on your chart. Have bought earlier this year though, so returns on more recent purchases might be better if it can continue this run.

Happy Camper
31-10-2006, 04:30 AM
This Happy Camper thinks that, in terms of resistance, $1-60 could be the new $1-45. My shares were on the block at $1-61, and whilst a few trades went through at that level, they weren't mine - not that I am too worried mind!

Cheers

Phaedrus
27-03-2007, 02:50 PM
MoSteph, SKL remains a stock going nowhere - today, it is much the same price as it was back in 2003. Over a lot of this time, though, the OBV was steadily rising as SKL was being accumulated. It appears that this is no longer so - the OBV is now clearly falling. Theoretically, SKL is now being distributed. This is Bearish and conflicts with your "Big buyer" hypothesis.
As a long-term 'Buy and Hold', SKL has performed very poorly indeed, though it has offered trading opportunities. Oscillators such as the Relative Momentum Index (plotted at the top of the chart) can provide useful signals for trading stocks that are more or less range-bound like this. Green arrows mark Buy signals, Red arrows mark Sell signals. See how the oscillator signals can be used to confirm signals generated by the trendline breaks. Such a system would currently have you holding SKL (and in profit). Not for me though - I don't like the look of the falling OBV.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/SKL327001.gif

Deev8
29-03-2007, 09:26 AM
Was I just misreading it, or did the chart posted a couple of days ago really cover the period April 2004 to March 2006?

Phaedrus
29-03-2007, 11:01 AM
Woops, I had both SKL and SKX on my system as "Skellerup" and inadvertently posted the wrong chart - all fixed now.

Phaedrus
30-03-2007, 10:00 AM
Here you go MoSteph. Not sure how slow you wanted the Stochastic to be - this one is set at 50 days. I don't think that any of these indicators contribute any additional information - but maybe you are seeing something I have missed.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/SKL330001.gif

winner69
19-04-2007, 11:38 AM
Long way from that breakout over 150 .... whoops wrong way

Sorry guys but down from 160+ to 115 is some fall ... lets blame the $ eh

bigbear
19-04-2007, 04:52 PM
Used to hold a reasonable number of these but got frustrated with the sideways to negative movement. Sold 90% of them at $1.30 approx so no major gain.
One of the issues with SKL is that they have a large amount of FX cover at very attractive cross rates that is expiring every day. If it runs out of cover before NZ $ falls in value will have a major impact on profits. Could be a good play yet in terms of a weaking NZD but am beiging to think this is a 2008 outcome not 2007.

I did alawys like the way the gobbled up some smaller players, normally paying reasonable prices. The market however does not like and after holding for quite some years my return has been very modest indeed.

Still a company worth keeping an eye on in my view but will be hit hard by the flying kiwi.

Lizard
19-04-2007, 05:59 PM
Nice summary bigbear.

Winston001
01-06-2007, 12:26 PM
Just thinking with the increased Fonterra payout and a PE of 7.9 (according to Forsyth Barr) isn't this stock undervalued at $1.21?

I know dairy farmers won't all rush out and buy new Red Bands but there is bound to be some increased spending in SKL's direction.

winner69
05-06-2007, 12:13 PM
You guys must be getting a bit peeved with SKL .... obviuoslt they weren't focused enough and now going to go through a restructure .... and lo and behold are going to specialise in technical polymers internationally .... whatever that means .... seems a bit vague as to what divisions remain as the core of SKL .... I hope that the recent acquisitions are part of the core business going forward or else they were a waste of effort


And all those writedowns .... at least a lot is non-cash .... I love it when they say that .... seems like it is OK .... but hell it was one way or the other shareholders cash once .... and obviously that spend was all wasted


Some 6,800 new shareholders they proudly snnounced at the IPO about 5 years ago .... 100,000,000 shares at $1.15 wasn't it .... where did the IPO money go .... I can't recall


Whoops .... below the IPO price today .... and tumbling

winner69
05-06-2007, 12:22 PM
was late 2005 but

Analyst's recommendations: Forsyth Barr's John Cairns recommends investors buy Skellmax shares, which he values at $1.67 on a discounted cash flow basis. "We believe the investment case for Skellmax is strong as it is trading at deep discounts to market median earnings multiples and our valuation. Skellmax has a core sustainable business involving dairy consumables which is growing and generates high operating margins."

I.T.Ancient
05-06-2007, 01:13 PM
This is a classic case of a management team who overmanned and overpaid themselves and then took high risk steps to grow the company to justify their bloated head office overheads.

Tenon are another example, but more interesting because they have been doing it for longer and represent a takeover and turn-around opportunity. SKL will eventually end up that way, but maybe not for a while yet.

Jim
06-06-2007, 07:32 PM
At one stage The directors were suggesting issuing some shares to them and hope they will perform better. Now what going on ??/[:0][:0][:0][:0]

Lizard
06-06-2007, 09:05 PM
As I read SKL, it was just another dog Private Equity float EXCEPT that they cleverly loaded it up with large amounts of hedging before float. This helped SKL maintain unrealistically high margins for years - and might have worked if they hadn't got caught in a rather stronger currency cycle than almost anyone expected.

Unfortunately, the impact of the hedging was not simple to decipher and SKL continued to imply that they were moving towards a currency neutral situation through off-shore manufacture. The truth of their continued vulnerability only became clear this year as the hedges tapered off.

Management have used the cash advantage of those hedges to move into new businesses. Now they will try and complete the move by exiting the old dog ones again. Whether the new businesses have any true advantage over the old ones will take time to determine. Looking at ASX-listed Ansells, it seems at least some types of rubber are proving profitable!

Ed
06-06-2007, 10:37 PM
Lizard, I follow (but don't hold) SKX. I do not think that SKX problems are connected with the the real or imagined sins of private equity - the company emerged from the train-wreck of Skellerup. Frankly, I don't think that "loading up on hedging" was either a bad idea, or something designed to create an unrealistic level of profitability.
It is just that SKX (and lots of others) did not quite guess how long or how high the NZD would go.
I think value is starting to emerge, and I do not think that management has screwed up - it is just that an illustration of the truism that currencies over shoot (remember the NZD/USD around .43?) and that markets (including the NZD() can be "wrong" a lot longer than you can be solvent.

Ed
07-06-2007, 02:38 AM
BTW, without wanting to buy into the "religious" debate between chartists and fundementalists. At different times, different approaches seem to have different strengths in predictive power. Would be interesting to see how the chartists see the SKX story at the moment. My sense is that there is value there, but the timing looks horrible at the moment.

Phaedrus
07-06-2007, 09:15 AM
Ed, fortunately there is no necessity to "buy in" to the TA/FA debate. Why take sides? There is plenty of evidence that systems using both FA and TA outperform those using either in isolation. Some people claim that combining the two is impossible but you don't have to look very far to see this in action. Your good self, for example. You have used fundamental analysis to determine that "value is starting to emerge" with SKL but have used technical analysis to determine that "the timing looks horrible at the moment". FA has put SKL on your watchlist and TA will help you to time your entry. What's to debate? Where's the conflict?

SKL gave a trendline-break Sell signal last November and has been in a downtrend for over 6 months so far. Up until a few days ago, this downtrend was decelerating, losing momentum. See how a succesion of tentative trendlines (light blue) were broken as the downtrend gradually began to level out a little. The steep shareprice falls of the last few days, however, have seen price action "regress to the norm". Not a good time to buy eh? The 3 indicators plotted at the top give a conservative overview of this continuing downtrend. The uppermost plot is a 50 day Directional Movement Indicator that I forgot to label.
As much as I enjoy the intricacies of TA and all these pretty coloured lines, they are quite superfluous here. All you need to look at is the trend. See how SKL has made an unbroken succession of lower highs and lower lows? That's a downtrend. What else do you need to know? Nothing. This fact alone qualifies SKL as an excellent stock to steer well clear of right now - regardless of any perceived "value".
The red line is a "zig-zag" indicator, set to ignore any reversal of less than 4%. This removes market "noise", making the downtrend simpler and even easier to see.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/SKL67002.gif

whatsup
07-06-2007, 11:10 AM
Suggestion::: Shouldnt SKX change its code to SUX!

Ed
07-06-2007, 11:17 AM
Thanks Phaedrus & MS. Re. "What's to debate? Where's the conflict?" No arguuments - You're preaching to the choir here - I just wanted to gently discourage an outbreak of FA/TA jihad

Phaedrus
07-06-2007, 02:25 PM
MoSteph, You say "if the price had continued to go up mid-may, the, then, 'long-term' trend would've been broken (the line below the dark blue one)" This trendline was broken in mid-May. This was just another break of just another unconfirmed trendline in the continuing (albeit decelerating) downtrend. The break of a trendline is not the same thing as the end of the trend.

"What I find amusing about long-term trends is that whenever the SP rises to a higher high then is followed by the lowest low (as seen with SKL), TA retrospectively says "it's the long-term, duh". Retrospectively? The old "its all done with hindsight" argument? Nonsense. The longterm SKL downtrend is quite intact and has, in fact, never made a higher high - or a higher low, come to that. You may perhaps be looking at one of the secondary uptrends that are minor corrections and part of the overall downtrend. See how every secondary uptrend carries SKL to a new lower high? See how every secondary downtrend carries SKL to a new lower low? Forget trendlines for a moment and look at the series of lower lows AND lower highs. That's a downtrend. Always was. All this year. No hindsight required - now or at any point in this downtrend.

I wonder if your "amusement" could be explained by your confusion as to what actually constitutes an uptrend. It is a higher high after a higher low - not a higher low after a higher high. Not that it matters in this case because over this longterm downtrend, SKL has not made a higher low OR a higher high. Look at the red zig-zag if you don't understand what I am talking about.

I think, however, that TA would have said (on daily time basis) that mid May was a buy signal. Sure. But we are not day traders are we? This entire 7 month long downtrend will have been littered with short-term "daily" buy signals of no interest or relevance to those intersted in monitoring the long-term downtrend with a view to perhaps buying if/when it ends.

With regard to your trendline break "Buy" signal. That is the 4th possible trendline break so far in this ongoing downtrend. This is caused by the decelerating nature of the downtrend necessitating multiple trendlines - which are sequentially broken. Given that the the first 3 all turned out to be bum steers, it would take a brave (or foolish) punter to act on the 4th. You do realise that this was an unconfirmed trendline?

Take another look at your OBV chart. See how the OBV has NEVER made it into positive territory all this year? In other words, volume is still flowing OUT of this stock. You don't want to be part of that!(See how the OBV was barely positive even during the uptrend of 2006? That marks a weak uptrend).

Re your RSI plot. When using the (short) default period of 14 days as you have here, short-term buy signals are generated by the RSI rising above the 30 level, from below. Short-term sell signals are generated by the RSI falling below the 70 level. The use of the 50 level to generate buy/sell signals is only appropriate if you use a very much longer period - something like 60 days, perhaps. In any case, use of a short-term oscillator such as the RSI(14) on this downtrending stock has given an awful lot of "Buy" signals - none of them any good. This would be an excellent indicator to use if you were looking for points at which to buy into a falling stock! Not a good idea though eh?

"TA said “yes buy me”, FA said “yes I’m undervalued". Nah. The downtrend is ongoing and has never faltered. The break of (yet another) unconfirmed trendline means nothing without plenty of relevant confirmation and the OBV has never been positive. No-one knows how far SKL will fall before this downtrend ends. All we really know is that it is still going down.

limegreen
07-06-2007, 03:41 PM
MoSteph, as a TA-probationary, I find the picking of a clear break in a trend (up or down), one of the hardest things to do. Phaedrus's metastock enables him to fit a 4% threshold to weed out "minor" highs and lows (you'll note his red zig-zag indicator ignores the higher high and higher lower you mention). As someone interested in the long-term, I see the point here is that just because it has apparently broken a trend, that doesn't mean it will start the reverse trend, it could continue to track sideways. Thus, I'm always very conservative about entering at a time like this (ie, I would not have entered here). This always means that I don't get in at the lowest possible low, but hopefully I actually get an uptrend. Case in point, I had a bad "top-up" into BHP last year.

PS, as a little tip, save your graph as a gif if you can. It's more suited to line-drawings than a jpg (which are better for very complex images with fuzzy boundaries, like photographs).

Phaedrus
07-06-2007, 04:51 PM
"With the OBV, do you really wait for it to go into "positive territory"? That would exclude most “cheap” stocks."
It would do better than that MoSteph. It would exclude most "cheap" stocks that are still falling. What on earth is the point of buying a "cheap" stock when it is getting cheaper? (ie in a downtrend) Until the market begins to agree with you, your "valuation" is totally academic and quite worthless. Look at poor Snoopy buying TEL every time it dropped below $6.30 - on the basis that it was "cheap" at any price below his estimate of its "fair value". Unfortunately the market did not agree and the downtrend continued taking TEL to less than $4 before it ended and reversed. Read all the gory details in the "TEL chart TELIUA, maximising yield" thread. Is that the sort of thing you want to emulate? Or you could look at yield as an indicator of "value" as MvT did with TELIUA. Seduced by dividend yield, he knowingly bought into an existing downtrend. A downtrend that did not stop and begin to reverse until he had lost some 60% of his initial capital investment. He thought that TELIUA warrants represented "value" and were "cheap" because they were "at/near their historic low." True enough - but they were still falling. MvT enters the story at page 3 of the same unfortunate thread. The moral? Ignore market sentiment at your peril.

MoSteph, you still don't get the trend thing. You say "In mid May, however, there is "a higher high after a higher low", creating what [u]ostensibly </u>[u]appeared</u> as a reversal." There was nothing ostensible or apparent about this minor correction. It was NOT a reversal. To be a reversal it had to reverse the pre-existing trend. It didn't. All it did was take SKL to a new LOWER HIGH. You have focussed on just one of the secondary uptrends that comprise this primary downtrend and have still not yet seen that the primary downtrend itself was totally unaffected. Furthermore, the secondary uptrend that you have focussed on is part and parcel of that downtrend.
You go on to say "It was short lived [u]we now say</u> but to me the point stands." You again imply that this was only evident in hindsight. QUITE WRONG! This secondary uptrend that we are discussing failed to reach the level of the previous secondary uptrend. It took SKL to (yet another) lower high. This was just as obvious in May as it is now. If you think that your point still stands, you haven't understood the whole concept of trend and how each trend is made up of secondary trends, right down the scale using shorter and shorter timeframes. For example, the May secondary uptrend that you repeatedly cite is itself made up of an uptrend, a downtrend, and another uptrend. Again, look at the zig-zag. Can you not see that the red line shows an unbroken downtrend? I did not draw this, all the computer did was filter out any change of less than 4%. All this did was take out some of the market noise, making the underlying primary downtrend even more clear.

"I think you're right that buying into a falling stock is "not a good idea though eh?". But this is in conflict with my belief in the notion of value... hrm... where to go next? " To me, the answer is perfectly obvious. Use your "value" approach to identify stocks of interest. Buy them if they are going up. Do NOT buy if they are falling - wait for the downtrend to end and buy when they have begun to rise. If they represented "value" to start with, they will surely offer even better "value" at a cheaper price! Now, tell me - where is the conflict?

ratkin
08-06-2007, 03:19 AM
Have a look at the chart on page three of the FPA thread mo , will show you just how complicated things are

Phaedrus
08-06-2007, 08:53 AM
Ratkin, of course you can easily find different situations involving other stocks. SKL however is a nice simple example of an unequivocal ongoing downtrend. As such it is an ideal study case for MoSteph.
FPA is currently in an uptrend, within a trading range. Not that complex, surely?

Phaedrus
08-06-2007, 10:43 AM
MoSteph, you still don't get it. I'll attempt one final explanation, but I can't spare the time to continue individual tuition at this level.
Here we go. Forget trendlines. Forget the Zig-zag indicator. Forget TA. Forget you have bought this sucker. We are going right back to basics. An uptrend is defined as a series of higher highs AND higher lows. The presence of a uptrend is confirmed when a higher high is formed AFTER a higher low. Now, looking at the chart :-
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/SKL68001.gif
Step 1. Identify any higher Lows. There are only 8, marked with red diamonds.
Step 2. Identify those higher Lows that are followed by a higher High. There are only 3. The relevant higher highs are marked with blue dots.
So, there are 2 uptrends on this chart. One simple, one compound. Just as a mathematical equation can be simplified, so too can charts. Each of these trends can be replaced with a single line that is in essence, the simple summation of the individual elements of that trend. The uptrends here are represented by green lines, the downtrends by magenta lines. We have removed a lot of "noise" from the plot and can now concentrate more easily on the underlying trend. The components that we now have to work with are :-
A downtrend (1 - 2)
An uptrend (2 - 3)
A downtrend (3 - 4)
An uptrend (4 - 5)
A downtrend (5 - 6)
Look at this 1-2-3-4-5-6 zigzag and you can easily see that it is a series of successively lower highs and successively lower lows. A downtrend. A nice clean clear unequivocal ongoing downtrend.

Re OBV you ask did I "intend “positive territory” to mean only (1) being higher than it was at the start of the year or (2) being above the zero mark." Look at the scale at the side of your OBV plot on page 7 of this thread. It is marked 5...0...-5 See how the OBV plot has been between zero and minus 5 all this year - "Negative territory". "Positive territory" is greater than zero. The OBV is, of course, lower than it was at the start of the year as well. But you can see that from your own P7 chart can't you?

You ask about OBV and buying. I would be extremely loathe to buy any stock with a falling OBV.

"Would you not say, then, that after any extended period of downward price movement, both (1) and/or (2) are likely to exist?"
No. "If yes, how is this a mistake?" I don't know what you mean by "this" or a "mistake". Google "On Balance Volume" and you will get more information than you can shake a stick at.

You say "....if you’re trying buy at the beginning of an uptrend .... you would buy normally at the bottom of a down-trend." MoSteph, other than pure blind luck, it is IMPOSSIBLE to buy right at the bottom of a trend and IMPOSSIBLE to sell right at the top of a trend. That is a totally unrealistic aim. Don't try. Don't even think about trying. Just accept that it is impossible.

If you are interested in TA I would suggest that you start by buying a good textbook. I would recommend "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by Murphy. 540 pages.

winner69
08-06-2007, 03:59 PM
Had another look at the fundamentals .... ie is there some value sometime

What got me was that over the last few years (to last June at least) while revenues had gone from $96M in 2003 to $159M in 2007 but operating cash flow was about the same level at $11-$12M

Spent heaps on acquisitions etc $60M+ over those years .... but cash flows no higher

And those debt levels are pretty high. Last count over $75M on equity of $49M is pretty high leverage ....... but oops that equity going to take a dive when they does writeoffs eh and that makes the debt ratios look pretty bad

Bad the they say that the writeoffs are non cash so it doesn't matter ..... but you could say that borrowed money paid for the assets to be written off and they still have to pay that back

Not looking good for me to be interested in the short term

Phaedrus
08-06-2007, 04:09 PM
MoSteph, Point 6 is not part of my argument - it simply shows the latest price level.

Well before Point 4, we knew SKL was in a confirmed "primary" (5 month) downtrend. No ifs, no buts, no maybes - right? Now, it is quite possible to profitably trade the secondary uptrends of a primary downtrend - but it is difficult and you really have to be on your toes. You chose to buy into an established downtrend, hoping it was ending. Let's just accept that and move on. You bought at the blue arrow, and the price continued on up, forming point 5 as it dropped back (scowling face). Since Point 5 is lower than point 3 on the "longterm" chart, this was now a new "lower high", reconfirming the continued existence of the overall primary downtrend. The "possible trend reversal" you hoped for was not happening. The writing was on the wall for this trade now - you were fighting against the unchanged continuing re-confirmed main downtrend as price action continued to fall away over the next few weeks. You did have a tentative trendline in place (I hope!) and this was nicely confirmed by a new higher short-term low at the green Smiley Face. So, here you were in a confirmed short-term secondary uptrend, within a confirmed primary long-term downtrend. Hardly an ideal situation, but quite tenable in the short term. About a week later, your confirmed trendline was broken, signalling a Sell. You had plenty of time to act, exiting your position and probably breaking even on the deal.

I don't use Moneyflow, but I see that this indicator contributed to your entry decision. Had it been part of your exit strategy as well, you might have got out when it signalled an exit at the Scowley Face plateau - and made a profit!

Did you have any exit strategy at all for this trade, MoSteph?

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/SKL68b001.gif

Ttops
08-06-2007, 04:26 PM
MoSteph, you still don't get it. I'll attempt one final explanation, but I can't spare the time to continue individual tuition at this level.



Probably this is the best explanation you have given Phaedrus of the many charts you have explained. Much appreciated as I like MoSteph have been tempted to pick the bottom. [:I] I bet I am not the only one as well. Thanks again for the concise explanation. I have learned much. [^]
TT

winner69
09-06-2007, 09:01 AM
Poor old shareholders who ahve seen the value of their shares going down the gurgler soon to to be asked to front up with more cash or see their holdings diluted?

Almost a certainity

I wonder what the debt / equity situation is really with SKL

I gather they were due to pay another $6M out for the Gulf Rubber acquisition in Feb ...... has the Tumedai acquisition gone ahead yet? .... that needed $20M of cash ..... they say to be funded out by bank debt ...... hardly making any money so debt could will be over $100M at the moment

Equity last December about $49M .... and that goes down heaps with $16M of writeoffs and if they pay most of the profits out as divies again equity could be down to $35M odd (+/- a few mill)

Not a healthy debt/debt + equity ratio is it

Even a few months ago they were obviously planning a rights issue or something ..... quote Smith ..... "No decision has been made at this stage about longer-term funding arrangements. The Board will be considering alternatives over the coming months in the context of its ongoing review of the whole group's capital structure." .... long way of saying we need some more cash

winner69
27-06-2007, 06:49 PM
SKL looking like one sick puppy at the mo

Read some of the doom and gloom threads and SKL wouldn't want to be on your list of holds

Lizard
30-06-2007, 10:40 AM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

SKL looking like one sick puppy at the mo

Read some of the doom and gloom threads and SKL wouldn't want to be on your list of holds


Hi Winner, would appreciate it if you're willing to expand on your thoughts here.

Balance sheet looks a little stretched and I would think they will need to cut the dividend. Surprised they didn't capital raise to shore things up with the last acquisition (I assume they have completed?). But perhaps counting on sale of the non-technical business.

Based on the forecast for FY, it doesn't look like they are in serious trouble though (any more so than all the other companies which are being stressed by strong NZD). Have I missed something?

winner69
30-06-2007, 02:04 PM
SKL looking like one sick puppy at the mo

At least the sharepice is .... isn't it .... down to 90 cents and market cap down below $100M

That in the context of what debt levles might be (esp relative to what the equity left sfter write-offs) will be sending alarm bells to the bankers

Stand by previous comments posted esrlier ---- bit of financial stress and new money needed

Looked at as a potential good recovery story ... but would anybody have much confidence .... market sending bad signals .... pretty solid volumes driving the price down

Jim
30-06-2007, 03:17 PM
Can this be another feltex in the making ??

Lizard
30-06-2007, 03:26 PM
Yes, can see where you are coming from there Winner69. And price fall suggests something going on - perhaps they are putting a cap raising in motion and the potential buyers trying to get maximum value for money? Or just anticipation that a bad result would not have got any better in recent weeks with strong NZD and market anticipates dividend likely to be slashed?

I would have thought they were a good candidate for a "recovery" stock. The forecast for FY gives underlying second half down to $4.2m NPAT (from $4.8m in first half), but further NZD strength can probably be blamed. I don't like the look of the balance sheet (especially adding in $19.6m paid for Tumedei, $16m write-downs and cash expenses for restructuring and $2.6m approx net dividend payment (after accounting for DRP). But EBITDA must be up close to $20m for the FY which should cover interest by around 3x?

The balance sheet might be helped (fixed?) by proposed divestment of the agri business ($50-60m?). Failing that, since their underlying businesses appear sound, with rising revenues and supplying strong markets in agri, mining and construction off an increasingly diverse geographical base, I would have thought they would have little difficulty raising capital. It doesn't look to me like a company that is about to collapse.

Suppose they issued 25m shares at 80cps to raise $20m, they'd still be on a FY08 P/E of under 10 if their 2008 forecast of $12.5m NPAT is correct. And given hedging and interest swaps, surely they have a good part of their variables covered in forecasting that?

Jim
04-07-2007, 07:04 PM
SKL is falling like a STONE [xx(][xx(][xx(][xx(]

winner69
04-07-2007, 07:35 PM
Every day seems worse than the day before lately

One positive is that at least today it closed at the high of the day .... must mean something?

georgeofthejungle
04-07-2007, 07:53 PM
The fall over last few days have all been on relatively low volumes. A lot of holders are still sitting on the sidelines and accepting the pain being dished out. Maybe the pain will only be short term but difficult to tell at this stage IMO.

winner69
04-07-2007, 08:03 PM
Accepting the pain on the head shares as they fall from a high of 164 to todays 83 is really painful ....

..... but bear a thought for those holding the SKLIZA installment things .... 75 cents still due March 2008 but can be rolled over .... they have gone from 96 to todays 16 .... now that highlights what leverage can do to you

If they pay a divie this year that 16 cents a great buy ..... tempting .... just maybe

georgeofthejungle
04-07-2007, 08:42 PM
Even if they don't pay a divvie this year, that 16 cents could easily be a 2 or 3 bagger if signs of improvement are shown after the restructure.

Lizard
10-07-2007, 10:39 AM
That you buying for the recovery Winner? [:0]

kura
14-07-2007, 01:02 PM
I will confess to buying a few to give me an interest in following the share, but I wouldn't commit any serious money to it until I knew more details of restructuring or capitol raising, suppose I'll have to wait to profit announcement in mid August for that.

winner69
15-07-2007, 03:10 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

That you buying for the recovery Winner? [:0]


Not me Liz ... even though you wouldn't call it a recovery yet

Still far too much uncertainity around SKL for me ... I don't think we have heard all the bad news yet

BRICKS
15-07-2007, 03:16 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by Lizard

That you buying for the recovery Winner? [:0]


Not me Liz ... even though you wouldn't call it a recovery yet

Still far too much uncertainity around SKL for me ... I don't think we have heard all the bad news yet


NOT to worry LIZ.. W69 dos not BUY share he is a LOOKER.. [8D]

tim23
15-07-2007, 06:16 PM
How would you know? Anyway I reckon Winner is spot on it looks like a dud to me - so probably a good one for you Bricks.

BRICKS
15-07-2007, 06:57 PM
quote:Originally posted by tim23

How would you know? Anyway I reckon Winner is spot on it looks like a dud to me - so probably a good one for you Bricks.


timmie23.5 your such a nice BLOKE.. [8D]

tim23
15-07-2007, 07:16 PM
Thanks Bricks thats very charitable of you; do you own any?!

BRICKS
15-07-2007, 07:36 PM
quote:Originally posted by tim23

Thanks Bricks thats very charitable of you; do you own any?!


NO... [8D]

Lizard
18-07-2007, 08:27 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69
Not me Liz ... even though you wouldn't call it a recovery yet


Yes, damn the recovery... a very nice bounce will do for now. :)

Lizard
16-09-2007, 08:22 AM
Chart sitting at the crossroads I think. Must have come close to triggering a trend break "buy" signal on closing price and OBV on Friday?

Phaedrus
16-09-2007, 06:13 PM
This chart shows the trendline break and OBV "Buy" signals mentioned by Lizard. Generally, these two are among the first to be triggered, but this chart is quite unusual in that they were the last. You can see that all of the other indicators plotted here fired off earlier signals, beginning over 7 weeks ago, back in July.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/SKL916b.gif
Sell signals are marked by red arrows, green arrows mark Buy signals.

redzone
21-09-2007, 01:26 PM
never heard of a takeover announcement with no taker over figure....is this normal or is this just another case of the NZX not doing its job...stop trading until we know a figure...gezzz

Phaedrus
21-09-2007, 02:28 PM
I don't hold SKL, MoSteph.

If I did, I would be looking to sell on the trendline break or a break of the trailing stop.

Others made of sterner stuff would perhaps wait for a downtrend before selling.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/SKL921.gif
Chart shows latest price - Close may be different.

Phaedrus
22-09-2007, 11:44 AM
1. Was the 4% ZIGZAG broken when you posted the BUY signal?
The Zig-Zag (set to ignore any reversal of less than 4% in the chart on page 9) removes market "noise" and is primarily for making trends simpler and easier to see. It is not really an indicator as such and so isn't "broken".
If you are asking if it had indicated a trend reversal, the answer is Yes.

2. Supposing you were holding, now that we have the close and it looks like another false start, would you personally sell or would you wait for the ATR break (realising more of a loss)?
I have already answered this. I said that if I held, "I would be looking to sell on the trendline break or a break of the trailing stop." Both of these have been hit, which would have given me an "exit" at 98 cents. How much was made or lost on this trade would depend on the entry price. The indicators I plotted gave entries ranging from 89 cents to 104 cents, with most at 94 - 95 cents.

3. Would you agree that the BUY signal is materially similar to my previous posted BUY signal?
No I wouldn't.

....If not, how does it differ?
Primarily, it is a question of confirmation. What you are looking for is Buy signals from other indicators of appropriate sensitivity. By that I mean those that have not been triggered by previous transient peaks such as that in April, for example. Fairly conservative "long-term" indicators.
Another important difference is that, unlike May, in August SKL was (and still is) in a significant (>4%) uptrend.

Phaedrus
22-09-2007, 03:29 PM
Mo, I think you are getting a bit hung up on the Zig-Zag. It is not an indicator as such, and its main use is to clarify trends should anyone be having difficulty with identification. The actual percentage used would vary depending on which trend you are trying to elucidate. If we use 10%, for example, you are looking at the "long-term" (11 month) trend. The figure is not critical though. With SKL, 6% works just the same as 4%, for example. The more volatile the stock, the higher these figures need to be. The longer the term you are interested in, the higher the percentage used.

In a downtrend, you are interested in the high points, and generally link these with a trendline, if possible. The longer a downtrend continues, the more reaction highs you have got to work with and thus the more precisely the trend can be monitored. You seem suspicious of "indicators that can be varied". That would cover pretty much all of them! They have to be varied to suit the volatility of the stock in question and the desired level of trading activity. The same indicator can be used for both long and short-term investors by using appropriate periods. For example, I use periods ranging from 3 days to well over 100 days with the Stochastic oscillator - depending on which trend I am interested in trading.

In May, SKL rose to make a new (lower) high. The question at that point was simply "Is this a significant rise? Is this evidence that the downtrend is weakening?" The method I use to answer that question is to utilise indicators that have been tailored to the preceding downtrend, such that no previous peaks have triggered signals. Thus, if the new lower high triggers a signal, we have objective evidence the downtrend has weakened. You can see that the May price peak gave generally lower oscillator levels than the preceding peak (April). In other words, the May rise was insignificant, the downtrend was still intact and still strong.

You say that "One can always employ indicators of different settings to confirm a signal". Of course, but that is not what we are trying to do here. We are intent on monitoring the downtrend. That's all. The settings for each indicator are dictated by the nature of the downtrend we are monitoring. They are controlled by the downtrend itself, not by me. Take the 40 day QStick indicator for example. Had a shorter period been used, this indicator would have fired off several buy signals - all meaningless. The indicator would have been too sensitive. Similarly, too long a period would make the indicator insensitive and signals would be later than they need be. That's what I mean by appropriate sensitivity. The indicators are tailored to the historical reaction highs of the downtrend in exactly the same way as you would fit a trendline to the data. The time period you would select for a moving average is similarly chosen to suit the trend you are trying to monitor.

Cheol-Ho Park might be trying to find rules with predictive powers, but I'm not. As a trend follower, I am interested in monitoring trends with a view to buying into uptrends, staying in them for as long as they last, and getting out when they end. There's nothing predictive about that.

Lizard
27-09-2007, 07:36 AM
Yesterday's AGM speech says they are on track fundamentally. Either they make the $12.5m NPAT, putting them on a forward P/E of 8.2 with a stated growth outlook, or they sell down parts of the business for a $10m gain and make a somewhat lower operating profit. How much lower is not stated, but, it seems to me that much of reduction in operating profit should be able to be off-set by a reduction in interest costs.

My guess. Say they sell 30% of the EBIT for $40m (40% of market cap), and use the $40m to reduce debt at ave interest rate of 9%, then NPAT would reduce by approx $1.3m. Offset the effective share price by the 10cps of abnormal profit on sale of assets, and the equivalent forward P/E is still 8.2 with a growth outlook. Actual reported underlying P/E of 9.2, or take the superficial, journalistic approach, throw in the one-off $10m NPAT and it's a forward P/E of 5.

That makes them look cheap - although the $1m worth crossed yesterday at the low of the day wasn't encouraging. Since this is the "chart" thread, my vote for "best supporting chart" to back my view goes to the daily candlestick. :p

Lizard
27-09-2007, 08:20 AM
My guess. Say they sell 30% of the EBIT for $40m...

Just got a copy of the "Going Forward" presentation from NZX and they it actually states "approx 30% of EBIT" for the businesses proposed for divestment.

Lizard
27-09-2007, 09:39 AM
Winner69 beat you to it SS - he called the SKLIZA "tempting" at 16cps on 4 July on this thread... still, the IZA's are a pain to trade with the lack of liquidity and large spreads.

upside_umop
09-10-2007, 04:40 PM
skl is giving off good vibes to me, nice uptrend has developed.
up another 2 today on reasonable volume with nice depth.

Lizard
09-10-2007, 05:24 PM
Yes, I also noticed it looking strong for a fairly dull day. Possibly some more certainty emerging regarding divestments?

My current valuation is $1.19 (allowing for restructuring). I hold.

Lebowski
19-11-2007, 01:50 PM
Price drifting back down after AMP & Cushing finished buying -some news required about the divestment needed to get things going again ?:confused:

upside_umop
19-11-2007, 02:12 PM
i sold out after what i suspected was a trendline break at 1.06 - 1.05.
the depth is definately stacked to the sell side..will keep a watch to re-enter if some indicators pop off.

Lizard
04-12-2007, 01:59 PM
Now more than 2 months since the September agm where it was indicated that divestment discussions were expected to be completed over the next few weeks. One would think they owe the market an update.

No wonder the price slides.

kura
04-12-2007, 08:58 PM
Now more than 2 months since the September agm where it was indicated that divestment discussions were expected to be completed over the next few weeks. One would think they owe the market an update.

No wonder the price slides.

Can't argue with you there Lizard, as I had a few in my "long term" portfolio, I missed the sell signal, (don't check my long term shares verry often) Just look a the debt (a four letter word) they are carrying, and figure out what will happen if they don't offload something soon.

Lizard
05-12-2007, 10:47 AM
If cashflows have held up as per forecast (and I don't see why they wouldn't have with dairy and mining both strong), then there wouldn't seem an immediate risk from that debt - interest cover should be fine. Although in a large debt situations, things can sometimes unwind quite quickly and lenders are a little more touchy right now.

Lizard
18-12-2007, 07:55 AM
Share price still waning and no updates. Worth bearing in mind the timeframes in the new financing facility (from note 20 of the Annual Report)

Since balance date, a new agreement has been entered into with respect to the $55,000,000 maturing in the next 12 months. The new facility, which provides for an aggregate total facility of $125,000,000, requires amortisation of $7,500,000 in December 2007, and the remaining facility maturing in three tranches, two of which totalling $47,500,000 mature in July 2008, and the remaining tranche of $70,000,000 matures in July 2010. The bank loan is secured by floating charges and guarantees over the assets of the Company and the Group. As at June 2007, the bank loan is under a revolving credit facility. The interest rate is floating and set by reference to benchmark interest rates and includes a margin agreed between the Company and its bank.

I think December amortisation should be okay going off balance sheet and forecasts, but investors need to be given the courtesy of an update in current lending environment. Risk looking more significant in absence of an update prior to Christmas.

winner69
18-12-2007, 09:48 AM
Hey Lizard ....you have spooked the market ....... down to 85 cents today

kura
10-01-2008, 03:31 PM
Well I thought I would give them until end of Jan, to announce something, or I will be voting with my feet on SKL, as
- debt is too high (have to come up with $40 odd million by mid 2008)
- not a good enviroment to be a forced seller of assets

Gee I wouldn't even mind if they had a rights issue to reduce debt, but to announce nothing while a repayment deadline slowy looms, reminds me of FTX.

Am I being overly pessimistic ? probably

Lizard
10-01-2008, 04:09 PM
I'm with you Kura. I actually got so annoyed before Christmas, I sent an e-mail to Investor Relations, pointing out that an update might be in order given the tone of the September AGM announcement. After some days, I received a response, which I don't think there would be any problem with quoting:

Thank you for email enquiring about our negotiations relating to the possible divestment of various businesses as referred to in the 2007 annual report and at the annual meeting in September.

While negotiations are continuing regretfully the Board is not in a position to make any market comment relating to divestments at this point in time.
As was indicated at the Annual meeting Mr Keith Smith has now retired from the Board and Sir Selwyn Cushing has been appointed Chairman in his place.

I'm not sure what to make of that, but referring me to the appointment of Sir Selwyn seemed to imply that perhaps the delays are a board-related issue. (Btw, I was checking on Sir Selwyn's age and he seems to be 72 if I got it correctly - considerably older than the retiring Chairman who I'd estimate to be around 56...)

Evidence still suggests they should be okay to cover interest payments, but, as you say, the environment for re-financing and/or selling assets does not seem likely to be improving.

Lizard
10-01-2008, 04:14 PM
...on the positive side, assuming they can actually sort the re-financing issue, they actually are one of the few NZ shares I could find that had a PEG less than one (based on current P/E and forecast growth in operating NPAT for the current year).

Lizard
10-01-2008, 05:30 PM
One last thought - compared to Feltex, I would have thought SKL was in a much better position to raise new equity - perhaps not enough to cover the entire amount due for re-financing, but enough to reduce gearing and satisfy the bank to renew lending for long enough to pay down the debt from cashflows - assuming cashflows remain on budget.

kura
07-02-2008, 03:48 PM
Furthur to my last post, I exited my SKL shares this week (apart from a nominal 100 shares) (Took a small loss)

Steve
07-02-2008, 05:19 PM
Furthur to my last post, I exited my SKL shares this week (apart from a nominal 100 shares) (Took a small loss)

I'm surprised your broker let you hold on to 100 shares when the minimum holding is 500 for shareprices between 51c-100c. They are not supposed to allow trades where the residual (in your case 100 shares) does not meet the minimum holding requirements.

kura
08-02-2008, 10:45 AM
I'm surprised your broker let you hold on to 100 shares when the minimum holding is 500 for shareprices between 51c-100c. They are not supposed to allow trades where the residual (in your case 100 shares) does not meet the minimum holding requirements.
Can't answer that one, though have also owned 18 RBD shares for the last 5 years or so. In the case of RBD, it was an honest mistake, when I was entering the number of shares to sell. ( got the last few digits the wrong way round)

kura
13-02-2008, 04:28 PM
One last thought - compared to Feltex, I would have thought SKL was in a much better position to raise new equity - perhaps not enough to cover the entire amount due for re-financing, but enough to reduce gearing and satisfy the bank to renew lending for long enough to pay down the debt from cashflows - assuming cashflows remain on budget.

Yep, that was the answer, raise $20 million from shareholders, and presumably banks will be happy to refinance the balance.

80 cents seems a touch high, when currently trading below that, but its underwritten !

BlackPeter
13-02-2008, 07:56 PM
Yep, that was the answer, raise $20 million from shareholders, and presumably banks will be happy to refinance the balance.

80 cents seems a touch high, when currently trading below that, but its underwritten !

... lets hope their half year results (to be published Feb 22) show a healthy cashflow and get the SP up a bit. Otherwise would I wonder who would want rights to purchase shares for a premium?

kura
13-02-2008, 09:11 PM
... lets hope their half year results (to be published Feb 22) show a healthy cashflow and get the SP up a bit. Otherwise would I wonder who would want rights to purchase shares for a premium?

Or to put it another way, what director in their right mind would underwrite the rights issue in excess of market value ?

The cynic in me says it's going to be a good result. Could be worth a punt ?

dsurf
14-02-2008, 08:51 AM
Or to put it another way, what director in their right mind would underwrite the rights issue in excess of market value ?

The cynic in me says it's going to be a good result. Could be worth a punt ?

They will probably have to reduce the rights price like PRC did

waikare
14-02-2008, 06:19 PM
Below is SKL statment on the Rights Issue.

Closing at $0.77 today there may be a few rights on offer, unless the share price heads north.

13 February 2008

Skellerup Holdings Limited - Rights Issue announced


Skellerup Holdings Limited ("Skellerup") today announced a 1 for 4 renounceable rights issue of ordinary shares to all shareholders, at an offer price of 80 cents per share.

The net proceeds of the offer will be used to reduce Skellerup's bank debt as part of the previously announced restructuring programme. The principal objective of the programme is to increase Skellerup's focus on the manufacture and distribution of technical polymer products, where it has considerable in depth knowledge, manufacturing capability and distribution networks.

The issue is to be fully underwritten. It has the support of major shareholders, and will be sub-underwritten by several of them and other parties, on terms that are concessionary to the company. Waivers have been granted by NZX to permit this sub-underwriting, and details will be provided by separate announcement.

Shareholders who do not wish to participate in the issue can sell their rights, which will be separately tradable on the NZSX. In addition, the issue will incorporate an over-subscriptions facility. This will allow shareholders to submit applications for shares in excess of their rights entitlements, which will be available in the event that there is a shortfall in applications. Any shares not placed by this facility will be allotted to the underwriters.

The record date for rights entitlements is 27 February 2008. Rights trading and the offer period are anticipated to commence on 28 February 2008, and rights trading to cease on 25 March 2008. The offer is anticipated to close on 27 March 2008.
Skellerup's half year results to 31 December 2007 are expected to be announced on Friday 22 February 2008.


For further information contact:

Donald Stewart
Managing Director
Skellerup Holdings Limited
09-571 5899
021-359 223

Steve
14-02-2008, 07:06 PM
Similar to PRC, the underwriters would have an 'out' clause if the shareprice is below the rights price, so expect a revised announcement should the shareprice not recover before the record date...

Deev8
22-02-2008, 02:36 PM
Skellerup have released decent looking results for the six months ended 31st December 2007

The key points were:

Revenue up 10.3% to $103 million
EBITDA up 16.3% to $16.4 million
NPAT up 6.0% to $6.1 million
A return to dividend payment with a full year Dividend to be paid in October 2008
Earnings guidance has been confirmed at approximately $12.5 million NPAT for the June 2008 year


The full announcement is here: Skellerup Half Year to 31/12/2007 (http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=160866)

kura
22-02-2008, 07:30 PM
Or to put it another way, what director in their right mind would underwrite the rights issue in excess of market value ?

The cynic in me says it's going to be a good result. Could be worth a punt ?

Cynical old me took the punt, in last Friday, and sold out today.

Lizard
12-11-2010, 04:04 PM
Through $1 on reasonable volume last two days.

Am wondering if they'll manage to make it back to the June 2002 IPO price by year end ($1.15 per share). :ohmy:

percy
12-11-2010, 05:43 PM
Through $1 on reasonable volume last two days.

Am wondering if they'll manage to make it back to the June 2002 IPO price by year end ($1.15 per share). :ohmy:

The Beatles song'the long and windy road' comes to mind.

Lizard
17-12-2010, 11:15 AM
Am wondering if they'll manage to make it back to the June 2002 IPO price by year end ($1.15 per share). :ohmy:

Achieved! :)

daniel
19-12-2010, 09:55 AM
Too bad I jumped out when it was 70c-ish. I always expected a nice turnaround but never would thought the earning could jump up to this level.

percy
23-08-2012, 08:41 AM
A "cracker"result.
Revenue up 7.1%. NPAT [less insurance pay out] up20.1%.Dividend increased.
New factory with new equipment to be built in ChCh.Reduced debt.
Well done SKL.

Catalyst
23-08-2012, 09:29 AM
Yes, a solid result but only slightly above expectations. At current $1.62 share price, SKL is trading on the following multiples:

PE = $1.62 / ($24.3m/192.8m) = 12.9x
EV/EBITDA = ($1.62 x 192.8m + $4.3m net debt) / $43.7m EBITDA = 7.3x
Gross yield = 8c / 162c / 72% = 6.9%

percy
23-08-2012, 11:05 AM
Catalyst.
With your history of being "right on the money" would you please share you thoughts on the coming year's profit.

Catalyst
23-08-2012, 12:39 PM
Hi Percy

I don't know any more than you do in terms of profitability for the upcoming year. The comments from the company suggest that the company are trading reasonably well in the current environment and in my view it should be able to increase NPAT by around $2m to $26 - $27m (their interest bill savings should be at least $1m alone provided net debt doesn't increase).

Of more interest to me is whether SKL is trading at a discount, premium or fair value. IMO, SKL should be trading on a:

PE of between 13 - 13.5x = 13 and 13.5 x ($24.3/192.8m) = $1.64 - $1.70; and
EV/EBITDA of between 7 - 7.5x = (7 and 7.5 x $43.7m - $4.3m) / 192.8m = $1.56 - $1.68.

Current share price = $1.60, so IMO SKL is currently a "hold".

Lizard
23-08-2012, 12:57 PM
Yes, I have SKL at "fair value" on that result. The commentary sounded cautious at this stage (who isn't?) and gave the impression that the coming year might be one of investment with the rewards taking another year to flow through. Margins also seem quite high compared to other manufacturing businesses, so there is always the risk that they come under pressure. However, SKL have demonstrated excellent performance in the past few years, so could also surprise to the upside and will no doubt take advantage of any opportunities.

I was pleased that there doesn't appear to be too much exchange rate impact/revenue effect from Europe - looking through the accounts, the effect of falling Euro and slow down is there, but looks to have been offset by performance in other regions.

percy
23-08-2012, 01:02 PM
Catalyst and Lizard.
Thank you both for your well thought out comments.

winner69
23-08-2012, 01:33 PM
Hi Percy

I don't know any more than you do in terms of profitability for the upcoming year. The comments from the company suggest that the company are trading reasonably well in the current environment and in my view it should be able to increase NPAT by around $2m to $26 - $27m (their interest bill savings should be at least $1m alone provided net debt doesn't increase).

Of more interest to me is whether SKL is trading at a discount, premium or fair value. IMO, SKL should be trading on a:

PE of between 13 - 13.5x = 13 and 13.5 x ($24.3/192.8m) = $1.64 - $1.70; and
EV/EBITDA of between 7 - 7.5x = (7 and 7.5 x $43.7m - $4.3m) / 192.8m = $1.56 - $1.68.

Current share price = $1.60, so IMO SKL is currently a "hold".

Always interested in why 13-13.5 is considered a reasonable PE - same as an earnings yield of about 7.5% which doesn't seem much even in an low interest environment, alowing for equity risk and all that sort of stuff

Just interested

Catalyst
23-08-2012, 01:43 PM
The multiples I use are very subjective and are based on: historical trading multiples of a company, comparative company trading multiples, growth prospects of the company, market environment,....

The 13 - 13.5x PE multiples are what I believe are suitable trading multiples for SKL at the moment but obviously not for other/all shares.

macduffy
23-08-2012, 01:58 PM
Always interested in why 13-13.5 is considered a reasonable PE - same as an earnings yield of about 7.5% which doesn't seem much even in an low interest environment, alowing for equity risk and all that sort of stuff

Just interested

Seems pretty fair to me when you consider that an average return from equities (div yield plus capital appreciation) of around 7-8% pa has been the norm over the long term.

percy
24-08-2012, 09:06 AM
Very positive articles in today's "The Press".
New products for existing customers.
New markets.
New customers.
New factory to be built over next two years,[without distruption to existing factory].
Aggressive hold ???

Balance
24-08-2012, 10:55 AM
Very positive articles in today's "The Press".
New products for existing customers.
New markets.
New customers.
New factory to be built over next two years,[without distruption to existing factory].
Aggressive hold ???

Run with the winners ad jettison the losers.

Catalyst
31-10-2012, 03:04 PM
AGM outlook comments below market expectations... FY13 NPAT forecast of $22m - $24m vs $24.3m in FY12. Will be interesting to see if $1.65 support level holds over the next few days...

Under Surveillance
31-10-2012, 08:08 PM
AGM outlook comments below market expectations... FY13 NPAT forecast of $22m - $24m vs $24.3m in FY12. Will be interesting to see if $1.65 support level holds over the next few days...

I think NPAT in FY12 was $24.7M, so the forecast $22-$24M for FY13 represents a drop in the range of 12% to 3%. Hardly cause for despair, even though a disappointment.

percy
31-10-2012, 09:15 PM
Although profit over the next couple of years may be modest,SKL certainly have a lot of [growth] projects on their plate.
A new Christchurch factory."A major undertaking."
Ultralon manufacturing moving to Vietman.
Setting up of Gulf US.
Move MINC to new premises.
And having such a strong balance sheet shareholders will not have to front with any cash.

Lizard
01-11-2012, 05:43 AM
I did not think this was too surprising - would have been more surprised if they had been able to pull out another profit increase in current environment. Will see how they look at half year - would like to buy them again if they pulled back to the $1.20's, but may be too much to ask.

Balance
01-11-2012, 09:00 AM
Although profit over the next couple of years may be modest,SKL certainly have a lot of [growth] projects on their plate.
A new Christchurch factory."A major undertaking."
Ultralon manufacturing moving to Vietman.
Setting up of Gulf US.
Move MINC to new premises.
And having such a strong balance sheet shareholders will not have to front with any cash.

Maybe so but markets don't like profit downgrades. They have a habit of becoming multiple events.

My pick is that SKL could drop back down to $1.40 before stabilizing.

$22m x PE 12 = $264m/193m shares = $1.37

If there's another downgrade, say to $20m, then $20m x PE 10 = $200m/193m = $1.04

That is what happened with RBD after downgrades - from $2.72 to $1.85 before trend reversal.

Catalyst
01-11-2012, 09:07 AM
Who really cares if the AGM comments and profit outlook is "hardly cause for dispair" or if there's "lots of projects on" or if it's "not surprising". I'm only interested in what the share price is going to do. And the market reaction yesterday and this morning suggests that the share price is in for a period of weakness after a strong run over the past couple of years.

A few sell indicators have gone off over the past couple of days...
1. Company announcing FY13 NPAT forecasts below market expectations (regardless that it's still a respectable profit, comparable to last year - the market was still expecting and pricing in more).
2. Double top at around $1.75.
3. Break in upwards trendline yesterday.
4. Break in 40-day EMA yesterday.
5. Break in various technical indicators including RSI below 50.
6. The share price is now in a downtrend (lower low after a lower high).
7. The share price has this morning broken the $1.65 support level that has held for the past couple of months.

percy
01-11-2012, 11:22 AM
Catalyst,Balance and Lizard.

Thank you for your "on the money" comments.

Joshuatree
21-02-2013, 10:05 AM
Fast forward

Profit down $4.2 million to $9.5 mill
Cashflow UP
Debt HALVED
Div maintained @ 3c
Outlook TOUGHER
Earnings expectations woundback full year set $20 mill NPAT

So a sell off where to still $1.04 Balance ? cheers JT

percy
21-02-2013, 10:28 AM
Must admit the result did not surprise me.I will retain my holding.

percy
05-11-2014, 07:38 AM
Must admit the result did not surprise me.I will retain my holding.

Well I did sell as the PE got above growth rate.
Back on my watch list to buy once the down trend stops,and I can see confirmation of a new up trend.
Does not look as though it will be any time soon as the sp is well below both the 50 day and the 200 day moving averages.

waikare
06-11-2014, 05:55 PM
Well I did sell as the PE got above growth rate.
Back on my watch list to buy once the down trend stops,and I can see confirmation of a new up trend.
Does not look as though it will be any time soon as the sp is well below both the 50 day and the 200 day moving averages.

Good volume today 504K all went through at $1.50 up 5 cents could this be a start of a upward trend. brought a few more

percy
06-11-2014, 06:16 PM
Good volume today 504K all went through at $1.50 up 5 cents could this be a start of a upward trend. brought a few more

Hope your timing is right.

Chaowee88
06-11-2014, 07:17 PM
Hope your timing is right.

I've got a small holding in this too at 150, brought a wee bit early, still it reached 150 today and the fundamentals are OK. Especially it books, no debt, with 16 million cash on hand. If it can just knuckle down, and grow earnings marginally there's hope for an uptick.

waikare
07-11-2014, 06:39 AM
Hope your timing is right.

Got them on Monday at $1.45, isn’t it time in the market rather than timing the market. Well it is in my case, first brought them in the IPO at $1.15 in July 2006 when they were called Skellmax.

macduffy
27-11-2014, 04:11 PM
New factory at Wigram receives final consents.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/63599774/skellerup-gets-ok-for-wigram-rubber-factory

babymonster
09-01-2015, 11:30 AM
it doesn't do that well currently.. i got some at 1.49.. got 52week low at 1.35 yesterday or the day before.. sign..

Jim
09-01-2015, 07:27 PM
it doesn't do that well currently.. i got some at 1.49.. got 52week low at 1.35 yesterday or the day before.. sign..

What is wrong with SKL, she is tracking lower and lower, maybe time to accumulate ???

babymonster
20-01-2015, 09:55 PM
Any suggestions on shall I accumulate? Have some at $1.49. Wondering shall I sell them or buy some more. Thanks in advance

noodles
20-01-2015, 10:16 PM
Any suggestions on shall I accumulate? Have some at $1.49. Wondering shall I sell them or buy some more. Thanks in advance
Some would say "don't average down".
Some would also say "don't buy in a downtrend".

I would be asking myself what were the reasons for buying in the first place. Do those conditions still exist?

Perhaps you should seek some broker advice on the company fundamentals?

Baa_Baa
20-01-2015, 10:29 PM
Any suggestions on shall I accumulate? Have some at $1.49. Wondering shall I sell them or buy some more. Thanks in advance

I saw your post on SKL, it's another stock that came up on my scan of "is this company really as bad as the price action suggests".

Although I can't answer your question whether you should sell or buy, I thought you might like to see a chart to help your decision.

I think you need to make up your mind whether the business is fundamentally broken, or not. If it is, and I don't know whether it is, then holding mightn't be a good idea. If you think the business is not broken and has a good future, then you're buying into what looks like price support at $1.27.

But even if it is a broken business, people may still see value around the $1.10 mark. If it's really screwed though, $0.47 is the all time bottom.

At times like this, the chart can only show you what other people are doing with their money, and they're selling out. The real trick though is figuring out whether the business is good or not, because if it is good, then you could be getting it at a good price - or maybe even a bargain price.

Ask the FA's what they think about the business and mash up the chart with the numbers.

This is a monthly chart.
6691

BlackPeter
21-01-2015, 09:15 AM
Any suggestions on shall I accumulate? Have some at $1.49. Wondering shall I sell them or buy some more. Thanks in advance

I guess you have to do your own research ... and not just my crystal ball is cloudy ...

Having said that ...

SKL had last year a reasonable healthy result (even if we deduct the one off from the insurance payout). Their results are strongly dependant on agriculture (and particularly dairy), but its not that farmers can easily delay buying their stuff (I guess you can delay maintenance for some time, but not for ever, unless you shut down the farm). Currently building a new (and presumably more efficient) plant in Christchurch.

In my view unlikely that they are curling up their toe nails anytime soon - and dairy seems to have found its bottom as well. Share price forecast between 1.70 and 1.78 - consensus recommendation "outperform" (on ft.com). They are in a cyclical industry, but IMHO currently closer to the bottom than to the top. However - does this mean they will climb from here? Who knows ... but in the mid term, I would consider them as a solid investment.

Discl: Bought some (small parcel) recently ... and not too worried.

percy
21-01-2015, 10:56 AM
I have SKL on my watch list.I sold out when the PE was about 17 and way above my expected growth rate.
The new Wigram [Christchurch] factory will bring the ChCh manufacturing up to world standards.
The steady down trend/weakness in the share price has surprised me.I just wonder whether Gulf are facing difficult times supplying rubber and plastic components to the Australian automative and mining secto
Result impacted by Aussie mining slowdown.

Biscuit
21-01-2015, 11:40 AM
I have SKL on my watch list.I sold out when the PE was about 17 and way above my expected growth rate.
The new Wigram [Christchurch] factory will bring the ChCh manufacturing up to world standards.
The steady down trend/weakness in the share price has surprised me.I just wonder whether Gulf are facing difficult times supplying rubber and plastic components to the Australian automative and mining sectors.

I don't know, the down trend has been more or less continuous since july last year. In October they were still "well positioned" and expecting FY15 to be $21-24.5 million. No adjustment to that has been announced, so should be ahead of last year. Might just be general caution about farming?

disc: hold (and maybe adding)

percy
21-01-2015, 11:52 AM
The sp at $1.37 is under both the 50 day EMA at $1.43, and the 200 day EMA at $1.54,so it has some work to do to form a new up trend.
Watching.

bunter
21-01-2015, 11:53 AM
On my buy list too with a valuation of 2.19, if and when it breaks this relentless downtrend.

6692

Biscuit
21-01-2015, 12:05 PM
We must be about a month out from results announcement and a couple of months from dividend record date, so might be worth a little gamble before then regardless of the lack of an uptrend, just for fun?

MAC
21-01-2015, 12:08 PM
On my buy list too with a valuation of 2.19, if and when it breaks this relentless downtrend.

6692

I would concur Bunter, with FY15 $1.95,

I’m not sure that the prospect of flat HY consensus earnings growth will catalyse the market for now though, it may become a second half story unless we see an outperform at the HY, watching though also.

percy
21-01-2015, 12:17 PM
We must be about a month out from results announcement and a couple of months from dividend record date, so might be worth a little gamble before then regardless of the lack of an uptrend, just for fun?

I am a bit like Grumpy Cat and don't do fun [with money] !!!! lol.

Biscuit
21-01-2015, 12:40 PM
I am a bit like Grumpy Cat and don't do fun [with money] !!!! lol.

Very wise, I know. I do like to test a theory with a flutter though, especially if it is against the trend.

Schrodinger
21-01-2015, 12:54 PM
Very wise, I know. I do like to test a theory with a flutter though, especially if it is against the trend.

Depends on your long term view. Given that they are tied closely with mining investment this might be a slow burner. I bought a few a few years back although the recent SP this reminds me why I don't line NZ manufacturing companies.

Biscuit
21-01-2015, 01:26 PM
Hi Schrodinger. You may be right, but they do have a diversified range of products and markets and presumably they can focus to some extent on their most profitable markets as part of a medium and long term strategy. I like profitable, reputable, well run New Zealand manufacturers! My first holiday job when I was at high school was at Skellerup's factory in Papanui. Back then we were making those polystyrene/steel panels for refrigeration.

babymonster
21-01-2015, 01:42 PM
thanks everyone.. i think it will improve, just not sure when.. sign.. it is a good business and pay good dividend, but sometimes sp does not reflect fundamental analysis...

Schrodinger
22-01-2015, 10:13 AM
Hi Schrodinger. You may be right, but they do have a diversified range of products and markets and presumably they can focus to some extent on their most profitable markets as part of a medium and long term strategy. I like profitable, reputable, well run New Zealand manufacturers! My first holiday job when I was at high school was at Skellerup's factory in Papanui. Back then we were making those polystyrene/steel panels for refrigeration.

Yeah but you have to be rational about the world domination potential for these companies therefore expecting it to be a 10 bagger or CAGR 25% is unrealistic.

MAC
22-01-2015, 10:50 AM
There’s nothing wrong with SKL being a relatively stable lowish risk cyclical stock for those whom it suits to have such stocks in their portfolio though is it.

Growth investing vs value investing vs yield investing.

Each to their own most would say, regardless of where one wishes to spread their portfolio across the risk reward curve ?

Schrodinger
22-01-2015, 10:59 AM
There’s nothing wrong with SKL being a relatively stable lowish risk cyclical stock for those whom it suits to have such stocks in their portfolio though is it.

Growth investing vs value investing vs yield investing.

Each to their own most would say, regardless of where one wishes to spread their portfolio across the risk reward curve ?

Very true MAC but if you compare this to the banks, MRP, retirement homes, POT etc it doesn't stack up. All of those offer more stability and better returns.

I will have to look at the 10 yr chart but it seems SKL is highly linked to Mining and Dairy especially over the past 2 yrs.

Not knocking the company as I still hold but there are better investments out there that can cover the things that you mention.

Biscuit
22-01-2015, 11:09 AM
Yeah but you have to be rational about the world domination potential for these companies therefore expecting it to be a 10 bagger or CAGR 25% is unrealistic.

I don't think it has much chance of world domination and it is not a CAGR 25% company. I'm comfortable with it as part of a broad portfolio, and don't look to only invest in fast growing companies. I'm also always keen to pick up shares when they are "down" if you can pick up a decent dividend at the same time, and sell them soon after. Doesn't always work of course.

Schrodinger
22-01-2015, 11:14 AM
I don't think it has much chance of world domination and it is not a CAGR 25% company. I'm comfortable with it as part of a broad portfolio, and don't look to only invest in fast growing companies. I'm also always keen to pick up shares when they are "down" if you can pick up a decent dividend at the same time, and sell them soon after. Doesn't always work of course.

Yep always a good tactic. Was part of my decision to get in although it has slowly tracked down. This will move to my bottom draw spot..to wait for the next cycle. =)

babymonster
16-02-2015, 02:41 PM
I think the HY report due on Thursday? seems everyone is waiting for this one, not much buyers and not much sellers..my guess is nobody sure what the report will look like?

Biscuit
16-02-2015, 03:43 PM
Yes HY report due Thursday according to their web site. Lets hope the outlook is reassuring!

Biscuit
19-02-2015, 08:18 AM
I don't know, the down trend has been more or less continuous since july last year. In October they were still "well positioned" and expecting FY15 to be $21-24.5 million. No adjustment to that has been announced, so should be ahead of last year. Might just be general caution about farming?

disc: hold (and maybe adding)

Result is out. HY profit down 10%. Dividend maintained and outlook for year flat:



"Skellerup expects FY15 NPAT will be in line


with the FY14 result of $20.7 million (excluding the gain attributable to the


Canterbury Earthquakes insurance claim)."





So, not doom and gloom then...

babymonster
19-02-2015, 08:26 AM
hopefully they can expand a bit into the US market

percy
19-02-2015, 08:43 AM
[QUOTE=percy;526717]I have SKL on my watch list.I sold out when the PE was about 17 and way above my expected growth rate.
The new Wigram [Christchurch] factory will bring the ChCh manufacturing up to world standards.
The steady down trend/weakness in the share price has surprised me.I just wonder whether Gulf are facing difficult times supplying rubber and plastic components to the Australian automative and mining sector.

The result was indeed impacted by the Aussie mining slowdown.

Biscuit
19-02-2015, 09:00 AM
[QUOTE=percy;526717]I have SKL on my watch list.I sold out when the PE was about 17 and way above my expected growth rate.
The new Wigram [Christchurch] factory will bring the ChCh manufacturing up to world standards.
The steady down trend/weakness in the share price has surprised me.I just wonder whether Gulf are facing difficult times supplying rubber and plastic components to the Australian automative and mining sector.

The result was indeed impacted by the Aussie mining slowdown.

Yes, you were right. Management are calling this "deferred" business rather than "cancelled" so maybe this will come right

babymonster
19-02-2015, 09:45 AM
i will have to wait for another 6 months than.. :p