Good news Stories

[robo]

Sure, seems doom and gloom at the moment and maybe a bit more to come ; i think we will see the start of another rise in the property market 2012 / 2013 which will be kicked off by substantial changes to immigration policy by national, we will see many many chinese, indian, thai etc people arrive here.
The immigration dept has aready held quite consultation meetings with ethnic reps, people from the ed dept, labour dept banking sector etc regarding this likelyhood.
2/3 bedroom properties due to the typically small familiy unit from these countries will be sort after, all the oldies well move closer and closer to service centres and lifestyle/retirement village (RYM YES!)

[minimoke]

Sure, seems doom and gloom at the moment and maybe a bit more to come ;
I started this thread as I was tired of all the doom gloom news around - and indeed things weren't nearly as bad as people were making out. But I now find myself battered by earthquakes and walking a path of unknown losses. So, for a change I'm felling a bit gloomy about property. However in the spirit of this thread theres got to be some good news out there.

While on one hand one of my previous rentals has been destroyed I figure those tenants need somewhere to live. Christchurch housing stock will come under pressure from more demand. In the short term we won't see an increase in rental or values because Christchurch people are decent folk and aren't about to profit off the misery of others. However medium term we'll see a much better quality of housing stock - which will drive up values. We will have 10's of thousand of homes installed with new clean air heating. We will see older house replaced by new; we will see parts of some suburbs empty driving demand in other suburbs. Medium - longer term Christchurch will help drive property values nation wide up.

Immediate term we have a government just adding $6,000 to the build cost of a house. That cost will be reflected in the houses value and will have a flow on affect through the rest of the housing stock. Thats good news because values will need to go up.

[fungus pudding]

While on one hand one of my previous rentals has been destroyed I figure those tenants need somewhere to live. Christchurch housing stock will come under pressure from more demand. In the short term we won't see an increase in rental or values because Christchurch people are decent folk and aren't about to profit off the misery of others. However medium term we'll see a much better quality of housing stock - which will drive up values. We will have 10's of thousand of homes installed with new clean air heating. We will see older house replaced by new; we will see parts of some suburbs empty driving demand in other suburbs. Medium - longer term Christchurch will help drive property values nation wide up.


Oh Dear MM. I can't let that pass without comment. First of all to address your huge generlisation. I don't doubt that there are some decent folk in Ch-ch, equally I'll bet my bottom dollar that there are some who are far from decent. No matter what - they will simply follow the market, and yes, rentals will rise in the short term. But to nowhere near the level required to get a decent return in the abscense of capital gain; and even with the requirement for new houses the market still has more risk of falling than it has possibility of rising. IOW it is still out of whack with incomes and prices worldwide. You need look no further than today's reports on the Auckland market. We are told average prices are up, but sales numbers are low! WHoopee! Average prices MUST rise while the bottom end of the market has stalled and sales levels are low. Reading throught the spin it translates in economics 101 terms to supply up - demand down. So prices are most likely to drift quietly down, although the odd bright month will be loudly trumpeted. Having said all that, I'm a huge fan of property investment, having made a tidy living at it for long enough. But now is the time to stand well back from housing. There are huge R.E. opportunuities out there in NZ at the moment - but definitely not in the residential market. Good luck.

[George]

No one replied to my post 248 on previous page or to Robo's - perhaps there is a link there ie. we follow Aus property up, say in a year or two (that includes the cheaper suburbs FP). I understand Aus has high immigration at the moment, if Robo's right then what could be better news for property here? Read an article in North/South a few years ago which stated John Key as very pro immigration and Asia, so we shall see.
See the first home buyers thread has died, wonder what happened to those folk, also anyone heard from Duncan Mc.

[fungus pudding]

No one replied to my post 248 on previous page or to Robo's - perhaps there is a link there ie. we follow Aus property up, say in a year or two (that includes the cheaper suburbs FP). I understand Aus has high immigration at the moment, if Robo's right then what could be better news for property here? Read an article in North/South a few years ago which stated John Key as very pro immigration and Asia, so we shall see.

Read that. I can't see any price gain in the next few years being anywhere near sufficient to make today's purchase profitable. If there is no gain in capital they are a terrible 'investment'. The only possibility at the moment is to seek out properties encumbered by a lease where there are inexperienced landlords who can't handle their new role. Some got caught jp in thr hype and thought property investment mreant buying a house and banking the money. A few skipped teneants, trashed houses, inevitable plumbers, electricians' bills etc and they want out. If thers is a long lease they have reduced options. I found a few like that, admittedly 40 odd years ago when I was playing with res. stuff, but the scene now is similar, so there's a possibility. More-so now because they may have had an encounter with those gangsters known as the Tenancy Tribunal. Who knows really? But on the available evidence, and with so many better options - why bother? Work out the net return on a property currently for sale. Make realistic allowances for mangement, 100% borrowing (even if you don't borrow at all you must factor in opportunity cost) and the one most investors ignore - repairs and maintenance and the figures are just dreadful.

[minimoke]

But now is the time to stand well back from housing. There are huge R.E. opportunuities out there in NZ at the moment - but definitely not in the residential market. Good luck.
We don't disagree there - I find myself in the strange position of being somewhat bearish about property at the moment. Rentals have IMO always been an iffy proposition for the ill-informed and anyone with an urge to jump on the property ladder now may be well advised to quell that desire.

But this is the Good News thread so I'll endeavor to keep posting on it - though no doubt posts will be less frequent!

[robo]

Read that. I can't see any price gain in the next few years being anywhere near sufficient to make today's purchase profitable. If there is no gain in capital they are a terrible 'investment'. The only possibility at the moment is to seek out properties encumbered by a lease where there are inexperienced landlords who can't handle their new role. Some got caught jp in thr hype and thought property investment mreant buying a house and banking the money. A few skipped teneants, trashed houses, inevitable plumbers, electricians' bills etc and they want out. If thers is a long lease they have reduced options. I found a few like that, admittedly 40 odd years ago when I was playing with res. stuff, but the scene now is similar, so there's a possibility. More-so now because they may have had an encounter with those gangsters known as the Tenancy Tribunal. Who knows really? But on the available evidence, and with so many better options - why bother? Work out the net return on a property currently for sale. Make realistic allowances for mangement, 100% borrowing (even if you don't borrow at all you must factor in opportunity cost) and the one most investors ignore - repairs and maintenance and the figures are just dreadful.

Fungus I have found the tenancy tribunal to be relatively fair these days, I think the emphasis is on the landlord to get the contract right and stay on top of the tenants in terms of condition of the property grounds etc.

I we have a couple of properties here in Hawke’s Bay for the last 8 years and have only had one incident with a tenant who made a bit of a mess of one property and subsequently went bankrupt owing 65 grand , but had not missed a single rent payment over the last three years, from my experience most tenants understand they have to keep their references sweet to be able to secure a tenancy in the future.

A place to live and bring up their children appears to be high on the list of just about everyone.
I agree that under the current conditions property does not stack up , but current conditions reflect what has past not the future, I plan to take advantage of this depression to get some capital gains in the next 7 years or so which I believe will be spectacular.

There is going to be some major changes to our country, we will become very cosmopolitan, This may be difficult for the older generation but they will get used to the idea when they realise that these new New Zealanders will be allowing them to continue receiving the super.

[fungus pudding]

Fungus I have found the tenancy tribunal to be relatively fair these days, I think the emphasis is on the landlord to get the contract right and stay on top of the tenants in terms of condition of the property grounds etc.

I we have a couple of properties here in Hawke’s Bay for the last 8 years and have only had one incident with a tenant who made a bit of a mess of one property and subsequently went bankrupt owing 65 grand , but had not missed a single rent payment over the last three years, from my experience most tenants understand they have to keep their references sweet to be able to secure a tenancy in the future.

A place to live and bring up their children appears to be high on the list of just about everyone.
I agree that under the current conditions property does not stack up , but current conditions reflect what has past not the future, I plan to take advantage of this depression to get some capital gains in the next 7 years or so which I believe will be spectacular.

There is going to be some major changes to our country, we will become very cosmopolitan, This may be difficult for the older generation but they will get used to the idea when they realise that these new New Zealanders will be allowing them to continue receiving the super.




The state of the housing market is not a depression. It is the first stage of a correction.

[robo]

The state of the housing market is not a depression. It is the first stage of a correction.

I was refering to the general feeling hanging around.

Fungus, are you one of the people who may have difficutly with an influx of people from asia ?

[miner]

Got this months property mags and looks like only two have sold in the last month and a few more have dropped 50k off there asking price ,with some more "offers invited over xxx",in other words we cant sell it please make us an offer.

So still no rush as only going one way.

Cheers
Miner

[minimoke]

Having just sat through another aftershock it seems good news on the property front is some way away. Since this is supposed to be a positive thread perhaps someone else can come up with something to brighten our day.

[miner]

Bummer about the shocks MM,hope they stop soon for you guys and wish you all the best,but as far as this thread goes it's no different to any other on ST as in people post there opinions and they can differ.

Readers can decide for themselves how things in the property market have played out since this bullish thread started.

Cheers
miner

[minimoke]

,but as far as this thread goes it's no different to any other on ST as in people post there opinions and they can differ.

I quite agree - but it always helps when people stay on topic.
So in the spirit of this thread - that being good news, its raining here in Christchurch which means when the spent Guy Fawkes sky rockets land on the tarpaulin on your roof theres not much chance of it catching alight and burning your house down and creating another hole in the property market. Selling a house with no chimney ain't the easiest - but its a whole lot harder if your place looks a bit charred around the edges.

[miner]

Hmmm as you sound like you have your hands full will just say again best of luck and hope things get sorted ASAP for you.

Cheers
Miner

[fungus pudding]

I was refering to the general feeling hanging around.

Fungus, are you one of the people who may have difficutly with an influx of people from asia ?



?? In what way would I have difficulty with that?

[robo]

?? In what way would I have difficulty with that?

That would depend on your outlook, maybe no problem at all, maybe you would like to see our property market get a boost who knows

[fungus pudding]

That would depend on your outlook, maybe no problem at all, maybe you would like to see our property market get a boost who knows

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. I certainly don't want to see a boost to our property market though. It is already way out of whack so should and will fall over time. Controlled immagration won't have much of an effect.

[robo]

Controlled immagration won't have much of an effect.
Really, i think it might

[Arbitrage]

The good news right now for real property investors (ie not looking at short term gains in capital value aka speculators) is that vacancies are low, interest rates are low, rents are solid, and another dollop of income arrives in the bank account every week. Cashflow is a wonderful thing and little understood by many. These are good times for property investors.

[Arbitrage]

The major cost for property investors is usually mortgage interest. Good news to see the rates dropping, especially at a time of strong rental demand especially in Auckland.

[denpal]

My company has just sold a residential property in Manukau for $280k with a rental of $400/week, giving a cashflow return after rates, insurance and maintenance of 6.35%. Plus it is subdivisible. Rents in Manukau are increasing at 3-5% pa. Even so, it is not worth subdividing at this current time such is the weakness of the market. For those intending to hold for a few years it could be a good thing though. We have taken a good margin and moved on........we have another one showing 6.6% net but not subdivisable.

The good news is that in large parts of NZ you can fully fund a rental property out of cash flow even without even needing the now disallowed depreciation deduction to balance things out, and with the rental market on an increasing trend plus replacement cost increasing all the time the future for investors actually looks OK.

[Arbitrage]

There have been a number of analyses lately to show that the Auckland residential market is performing better than the rest of NZ in terms of capital and rental growth. That is good news for Auckland investors who can also be confident that there is a strong natural population growth needing a roof over their heads, plus the majority of immigrants go to Auckland. When the next immigrant surge occurs in a year or three's time, prices will move up again.

[denpal]

I see there is a very tidy 7 brm 2 bathroom house for sale in Ilam rented for over $1,000/week for $439,000. If you could swing a deal at $400,000 that is a 13% gross return and probably around 11.6% net after rates, insurance & maintenance if self-managed and with 2 weeks vacancy factor p.a.

[trackers]

Nice find, the numbers look great, hard to find a downside... Though managing 7 students could be a bit of a pain.

Are you interested in this one Denpal? I found it on trademe and see it has open day today

[Arbitrage]

Don't forget the tax on the income plus no depreciation claims any more.

What is the feeling in ChCh about future capital gains on residential property?

In Auckland we seem to be sitting on 5% pa while the rest of the country drifts.

[denpal]

Hi trackers, I'm not a buyer - as bought a 5-brm in Burnside a couple of months back - but it certainly looked good on the numbers!

Capital gain - should be OK in the solid areas of Chch - building costs are set to increase a fair bit - with good demand I would think in due course for the areas like Ilam & Riccarton North which are close in and good ground. Of course Riccarton South was originally swampy (south of Riccarton Rd).