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minimoke
04-03-2009, 12:08 PM
2 bedroom bach in Le Bons Bay with a RV of $368,000 sells for a dollar.

Ha ha – no. I know that’s what the gloomy people though this is how the story would go.

Actually after 58 bids it sold for $550,000. Bayleys will be pleased with that result.

minimoke
05-03-2009, 03:11 PM
Leading Auckland real estate firm Barfoot and Thompson says there are signs of a recovery in the housing sector - with more buyers and sellers entering the market.

The firm, which says it handles around one in every three Auckland homes sold, said today the average price of houses changing hands last month - $512,536 - was a 3.5 per cent increase on the same month a year ago. It was also 2 per cent higher than the average in January this year.


In February Barfoot & Thompson sold 559 homes, up 8.9 percent on sales in January, and the first time in four years that February sales have been higher than in the preceding January.


The firm listed 1470 new homes, up 50.8 per cent on those listed in January. While down 28.3 per cent on those listed for sale in the same month last year, February 2008’s listings were the highest in any month for more than two years.

Crypto Crude
05-03-2009, 10:00 PM
dont worry about what barefoot and thumpson say...
they have their own motives/agendas, they are in the business of making money... they will say what ever they want to make money...

The whole real estate business of matching buyers and sellers is a crock...
'
they go to the seller saying house prices are going to get worse...
oh, take the money down trending sector, we are barefoof "recommend selling"...

what do they then do to buyers...
OH...... Prices have dropped...interest rates have fallen... its never a better time to buy than right now...

as real estate agents are trying to coax buyers and sellers they will do what they want, when they want it to get business deals matched....

shame on anyone who listens to real estate agents...
Banks are the same, they know whats up... they want you to lose money so they can make it...
eg fixed interst rates...

If you can provide an unbiased article then shoot...
otherwise you might aswell read what the buffs on the 1st homebuyers thread have been saying for the last two years...
:cool:
.^sc

minimoke
06-03-2009, 08:40 AM
If you can provide an unbiased article then shoot...

Shrewdy, as hard as you and I might look I doubt either of us will find an unbiased opinion. But what we can do is look at the evidence and make a call from there.

It goes without saying you have to take a real estate agent opinion with an enormously large grain of salt – I wouldn’t trust them as far as I could kick ‘em. However if they present data we have to give that some recognition for validity. How reliable it is depends on ones viewpoint, which will hopefully be supported by other data. If its good enough for people to listen to their yarns in the good times, I can’t see why they shouldn't listen to the same yarns in the harder times.

Without wanting to crap this thread since this is the good news one, interesting comments from Bernard Hickey ( one of the more vocal self promoting doomsayers) this morning.

For a start he reckons Barfoot and Thompson are one of the more credible real estate agents.
Next Bernard is distrusting of their evidence based approach because he prefers to rely on his anecdotal observations.

Then he reckons its a media beat up – but is silent on the beat up the media gives to a dropping market.
He’s not keen on using “average” figures – but is probably equally unkeen on using mean figures.

And he thinks the figures are skewed because there are a few high value sales – he only appears to like data when there are few high value sales and lots of low value sales.
And finally he’s talking about a 20% drop in values but is silent on where his base is. If its the Nov 08 highs then that is a big move from his original 30% predictions. If its off today’s values then thats a 25% move off Nov Highs. Either way he’s back tracking.

So all in all his comments are good news.

Crypto Crude
06-03-2009, 09:53 AM
great mini...
now thats a more creditable source....

barefoot and thump-some1.... hahahhaha....
your absolutely right, this is a good news stories thread...
so on that note im gone.........
zzzzzzzzooooooooooooooommmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

:cool:
.^sc

minimoke
06-03-2009, 03:01 PM
Don’t know if I should include this but Harcourts reckon its good news. They think the tide is turning because they are getting more hits on their website. Personally I think they are looking for an excuse to get some media attention after Barfoots news yesterday.

miner
11-03-2009, 09:24 AM
Got a ring from Harcourt's this morning to tell me that a house I looked at about a year ago (I was 1 of 2 people that went to the open home) had just had a major price reduction (there words) and was I interested ?,I said would think about it.

The house in question came on the market for 415k near the end of the boom,it then dropped to 405k then 399k then 379k then 359k and now a drop of 34k to 325k.

When my lady and I first looked at it I said 300k tops and more like 250k so getting there,but the market has and is changing in that time so ???,and to think if I had listened to some experts around here I could have snapped it up for the bargain price of 379k,Hmmm.

Cheers
Miner

minimoke
11-03-2009, 09:44 AM
When my lady and I first looked at it I said 300k tops and more like 250k so getting there,but the market has and is changing in that time so ???,and to think if I had listened to some experts around here I could have snapped it up for the bargain price of 379k,Hmmm.

Not really – it is quite apparent that the seller had grossly inflated value of their property which was out of touch with reality. If the property had a value of $415 it would have sold at this price – but obviously it didn’t, so it was never worth $415. This is coupled with a dumb marketing campaign – harcourts (assuming they have had the property all this time) are just eroding the high end value by sending the market mixed messages. It sounds like Miner might have had a more realistic value of the property – so the good news is that particularly property isn’t loosing value – it will eventually sell for its proper value.

minimoke
11-03-2009, 10:15 AM
From the REINZ today: “....The number of home sales nationwide in February was 5,228, a big jump on the record low of 3,706 in January"... {and the most in the past 11 months}...." The median house price has also improved on January’s figures. The national median house price in February was $330,000, up $5,000 on January’s $325,000”

miner
11-03-2009, 10:15 AM
In part your right as in it was never worth 415k but then allot of others that sold in the few years before this came on the market were never worth what they sold for (some have since sold for substantially less).

What happened with this one is they missed the mental-greed prices,when it came on the bubble had a pin prick and has been leaking badly ever since,so now we look for it to over correct to the low side then maybe look at buying,the property WOULD be loosing value if you were one of the suckers that bought at the mental prices as many did.

I was just about to point out where you have contradicted yourself again mini but as been there done that before will give it a miss,so as before will leave you to your thoughts and will just keep sitting on my hands and watch the market do what I picked it would,a ways to go yet,there are many indicators that say it is still got a ways to go down,1 of them being the ring I got this morning.

Good luck with your cunning plan anyway,each to there own,sure your not a realties agent ???.

Cheers
Miner

minimoke
11-03-2009, 10:33 AM
sure your not a realties agent ???.
Gosh no!. Scum of the earth in my view.

miner
11-03-2009, 10:36 AM
Phew had me worried there for a minute.

Cheers
miner

minimoke
11-03-2009, 12:54 PM
Ok Kiwisavers more good news – you only need to contribute 2% of your pay from 1 April – not the current 4%. Only drawback is you got to be buying in the bottom 25% of house prices in the region.

minimoke
12-03-2009, 08:40 AM
Its been a good week. Now we have another 0.5% coming off the OCR (down to 3.0%) which will put downward pressure on variable rate mortgages. And there’s potential for a little bit more to be squeezed off rates over the next few months. Bollard reckons the bottom of the trough will be hit mid year – and that’s only a couple of months away. So we’ve had huge rate cuts, a depreciated dollar and govt stimulus along with lowering inflation – things are beginning to look a lot rosier.

The Great Gold Guru
12-03-2009, 12:57 PM
Not a single bank has moved anything but floating or 6m rates so far today. Looks like 50bp cut was already built into existing 1-5Yr rates. 25bp in April and then another 25bp in June looks like the go for the next few months. I have 3 mortgages up for re-fixing in May , 2 in June and 1 in Sept. Hoping for 3Yr rates at about 5.75% ...

Just put an offer on a rental in Nelson ... $229k asking , just offered $202,500 ... see how I get on. Rental appraisal is $280-$300pw. Aiming to buy 8 more rentals b4 we say goodbye to 2009.

bambi
13-03-2009, 08:08 AM
Minimoke, are you being sarcastic in your comment?

minimoke
16-03-2009, 09:52 AM
Minimoke, are you being sarcastic in your comment?Not at all. I just feel we need a sense of balance amongst all the gloom mongerers. The negative tide is turning - and I'll show why on another thread.

minimoke
16-03-2009, 09:54 AM
Two Auckland houses have sold for well over their reserves after drawing big crowds at open homes and auctions.
Jane Palmer, of LJ Hooker, said the fact that interest rates had hit a new low was thought to be part of the impetus for strong bidding on the properties.
Ian Jowsey, sales manager and auctioneer for LJ Hooker Ponsonby, said Wednesday's 6pm auction drew 150 to 180 people and strong bidding for both places.
A house at 37 Pine St in the Mt Eden/Balmoral area was valued at $590,000, had a reserve of $625,000 and sold for $730,000.
"Rich in character is this refurbished three- to four-bedroom transitional villa," the agency said, citing west-facing indoor/outdoor flow to a generous lawn, in a quiet street and near popular schools, village shops and transport.
The second house, at 63 Mulgan St in New Windsor, had a reserve of $280,000, was valued at $350,000 and sold for $340,000. It was marketed as needing work.

miner
17-03-2009, 04:09 PM
Hi Mini have you got a link to the New Windsor one ?,ta.

Cheers
Miner

minimoke
17-03-2009, 04:20 PM
Hi Mini have you got a link to the New Windsor one ?,ta.

Cheers
Miner
Its no tmuch but try this: http://www.ljhooker.co.nz/images/dynamic/brochure.php?e2=residential&e3=278298

or this http://www.realestate.co.nz/1001887

miner
17-03-2009, 04:51 PM
Ta Mini just finished painting one of those,wooden joinery sucks.

Cheers
Miner

minimoke
17-03-2009, 06:21 PM
Ta Mini just finished painting one of those,wooden joinery sucks.

Cheers
Miner
You have my sympathies. I fondly remember the days of the gas torch and sander. That’s why I now build in brick and aluminium!

The Great Gold Guru
18-03-2009, 01:55 PM
brick and aluminium .... mmm , nice ...

Disc: dedicated villa lover !!

minimoke
18-03-2009, 02:37 PM
brick and aluminium .... mmm , nice ...

Disc: dedicated villa lover !!
Each to their own
disc - ex villa lover

minimoke
18-03-2009, 02:38 PM
A house at 278a Remuera Road, Auckland has just sold for $1.9m – exactly its 2008 rating valuation – indicating no drop in property values over the past year.

fungus pudding
18-03-2009, 03:31 PM
A house at 278a Remuera Road, Auckland has just sold for $1.9m – exactly its 2008 rating valuation – indicating no drop in property values over the past year.


Except it has historic value which would not feature in the QV. It's no indication of the property market.

minimoke
18-03-2009, 03:59 PM
Except it has historic value which would not feature in the QV. It's no indication of the property market.
The property has had historic value for decades – If QV do the job some posters here think they do then that value would have been recognised in previous valuations. And if people think they can hang 7,800 sales, from housing stock of 1.6m houses, out as “The Market” then the three recent Auckland sales on this thread can surely be used as an indicator.

The GrandMaster
18-03-2009, 04:24 PM
A house at 278a Remuera Road, Auckland has just sold for $1.9m – exactly its 2008 rating valuation – indicating no drop in property values over the past year.

haha - sample size of 1, great!

minimoke
18-03-2009, 04:54 PM
haha - sample size of 1, great!
Sure three properties is a small sample size over a couple of days - but so is the sample size the doom gloom people like to use. Remember theis is the Goods News thread so a bit of statistical liscence could be forgiven.

miner
18-03-2009, 05:14 PM
Sir Ed's house Mini ?.

Cheers
Miner

minimoke
18-03-2009, 06:08 PM
Sir Ed's house Mini ?.

Cheers
Miner
Not as at 3.00pm today!. As for historic value, one of the last famous peoples house to sell was the world renown, down south, Fred and Myrtle Fluteys house which sold near the “peak of the market” but eventually sold (despite being offered at auction) for less than the asking price – so being famous doesn’t necessarily add value to a house. Since the Fluteys is one house in a much smaller sample size we can conclude that famous houses sell at a discount – therefore this latest house sold at a discount – all good news.

miner
18-03-2009, 06:26 PM
As it was the only site left in the street yet to be developed and have a mansion built on it not sure if it's the best indicator of the market,sale had zip to do with being sir ed's.

Cheers
Miner

minimoke
18-03-2009, 06:52 PM
..not sure if it's the best indicator of the market..
There might be some merit there: except this is the Good News thread so any news is going to get spun positively to counter the gloomy people who prefer anecdotal stories upon which they can weave their misery. I prefer an evidenced based approach to weave a yarn. Oh – and incidentally more good news – this sale shows there is still major money out there for house purchases and more cash slopping around if the new owners do want to develop. Even people without so much cash are taking the punt now on properties like that Mulgan St one. And what I particularly enjoy about this latest sale is that it is going to bolster the March sales stats no end.

miner
18-03-2009, 07:09 PM
Nothing to do with gloomy quiet positive actually as it's all doing what I thought it would,just looking at it all with NO EMOTION unlike allot of people,boost the march sale stats as in give yet another false indicator as it will get the average up but not show what's really going on for your shall we say average priced house ?.

Cheers
miner

minimoke
18-03-2009, 07:28 PM
just looking at it all with NO EMOTION
I guess that since this is the Good News thread this is going to be the thread with a smidge of emotion in it. But you raise another interesting challenge perhaps for another thread. What is an average house (or home), an average price and an average buyer /seller.

fungus pudding
18-03-2009, 08:03 PM
There might be some merit there: except this is the Good News thread so any news is going to get spun positively to counter the gloomy people who prefer anecdotal stories upon which they can weave their misery. I prefer an evidenced based approach to weave a yarn. Oh – and incidentally more good news – this sale shows there is still major money out there for house purchases and more cash slopping around if the new owners do want to develop. Even people without so much cash are taking the punt now on properties like that Mulgan St one. And what I particularly enjoy about this latest sale is that it is going to bolster the March sales stats no end.


No it won't. Statistics now use median rather than average prices to eliminate distortion.

minimoke
19-03-2009, 07:36 AM
No it won't. Statistics now use median rather than average prices to eliminate distortion.
I thought QV, who are the regularly quoted source of statistics (along with REINZ) use averages though REINZ use median.

The Great Gold Guru
19-03-2009, 11:26 AM
Bond market in US,Japan & UK responding very favourable to the "quantative easing" ( or is it "quantitive ?? " ... watch the NZ 5 & 10 year swaps retrace some of the upward movement since the last OCR announcement. I've got some 2yr fixed coming off in May and the 3Yr 5.99% rate is making eyes at me. Was worried it may have disappeared but it's still there at the ANZ where the mortgages are held. Enquired last week what the cost would be to break and re-fix now .... amount was roughly double the interest saving so I gave it a miss !!

minimoke
24-03-2009, 02:34 PM
House prices have fallen below a fair price that investors should be willing to pay - the first time this has happened since late 2006 - says the Westpac Bank.

Westpac economist Doug Steel told an Auckland regional job summit yesterday that house prices were now "around fair value" based on rents, interest rates and other costs.

"The negative sentiment towards housing is overblown," he said

miner
24-03-2009, 02:48 PM
So buy one and take a mortgage out with us.

The Great Gold Guru
26-03-2009, 09:45 AM
Just to let you know if you didn't already realise. ANZ will let you "book" a rate if you are within 60days of a fixed rate maturing. I reserved 6.15% 3Yr fixed this morning on 3 loans coming off their fixed rates in early May. Saved me having to pay break fees but still got me some certainty.

ASB are certainly putting the pressure on to get into some fixed rates soon with their huge increase this morning.

peat
26-03-2009, 03:04 PM
yeh westpac is the same TGGG. I locked in a few weeks ago with rollover in a fortnight. with ASB at 7.25 for 5 yrs as of today my 6.5 feels good

The Great Gold Guru
26-03-2009, 04:45 PM
I see Westpac have raised their rates this arvo ... even pushed up the 2Yr to 6.25% which is a bit of a shock. Cameron Baigre ( chief economist at ANZ National ) reckon it might pay to have a certain amount of debt at 6mths and just keep rolling it every 180 days ... short term rates to stay lower for longer but the yield curve to stay steep.

I have another mortgage coming of on June 17th and plan to adopt this strategy if 6mth rates are still around the 5.79% level. 2 more small OCR cuts in the meantime may push the 6mth rate lower .. possible it may be up to 1.50% cheaper than say a 3yr rate .. and possibly 2.00% cheaper than a 5Yr which will mean it will be "worth the punt" for a while.

Happy to have 1/4 of my exposure fixed today at 6.15% until May 2012 having said all that.

minimoke
26-03-2009, 06:46 PM
Just to let you know if you didn't already realise. ANZ will let you "book" a rate if you are within 60days of a fixed rate maturing.
Thanks for that TGGG I wasn’t aware of that and I am with ANZ. I have them for their rate shaving so I’ll have to try this when my fixed comes off in July.

cliff
27-03-2009, 12:45 AM
Great news for first home buyers in both Rotorua & Wanganui...$125,000 will now get you into a 3 bdr property. Both these towns have been punching well above their weight for some time...finally getting back to some normality.

The Great Gold Guru
27-03-2009, 08:04 AM
I have four rentals in Wanganui ... all are cashflow positive assuming 90% gearing and 6.00% interest rates. Local Govt rates are high , something to beware of. ( I was looking at a property in One Tree Hill the other day CV $530,000 ... rates are lower than one of my rentals in Wanganui with a CV of $150,000 ! )

The Great Gold Guru
27-03-2009, 08:10 AM
ANZ have upped their 3yr rate to 6.75% this morning ... going in yesterday will save me $5814 over the next three years !!

The Great Gold Guru
27-03-2009, 08:39 AM
ANZ's 5Yr rate is now 7.50% ... OUCH !!! ( and National Bank, TSB )

SBS Bank still at 6.69% 5Yr, won't last, get in TODAY !!

minimoke
27-03-2009, 02:34 PM
ANZ's 5Yr rate is now 7.50%
Well that’s good news. Since I already have a mortgage its nice to know I’ll get a 7.50% net return on any excess cash I have – I’ll just stick it on the mortgage and decrease my loan amount which reduces my interest payments. 7.5% - can’t be too many places that will give me that as a net return!.

The Great Gold Guru
03-04-2009, 10:35 AM
WOW!! ....

Auckland housing market out of hibernation, Barfoot & Thompson says (corrected)
April 3rd, 2009
Auckland’s largest real estate agency group, Barfoot and Thompson, has reported sales volumes jumped in March to a 20 month high as buyers “returned with a vengeance” and sellers accepted a slight fall in prices to clear the market.

“Certainly in March, the Auckland housing market emerged from its hibernation,” Barfoot and Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said in a statement titled ‘Buyers return to Auckland housing market with vengeance.’

Barfoot’s average sale price in March was NZ$491,780, down 5.8% from March 2008 and down 4.1% from February. It reported 924 sales, up 65.3% from February and up 46.2% from a year ago. The March average was down 8.7% 12.8% from Barfoot’s peak average of NZ$538,478 in December 2007 NZ$564,162 in March 2007.

“We sold close to 300 homes more in March than in any month in the whole of 2008,” Thompson said.

Thompson said factors affecting March’s sales activity were the traditional March spike, further falls in the Reserve Bank OCR, bank mortgage rates reaching new lows and knowledge that tax cuts were about to kick in.

“A recovery of this order is greater than any expectation, and it may well contain an element of released intention,” Thompson said.

“Buyers may be sensing that market prices are close to the bottom of the cycle and have made the decision to act,” he said.

“At the same time sellers are accepting that a price that is on average only 6 percent below values being achieved 12 months ago is realistic in the current market, and are ready to accept.”

“It means that the market is active, and the housing market is edging further back to normality.”

“Another indicator of returning confidence is the level of interest shown at auctions. In March we saw our best attendance numbers for 12 months, and we sold some 65 to 70 percent of all the homes that we put to the market.”

“In February, we reported prices firmed on modest turnover, while this month turnover was extremely strong with prices coming off marginally.”

whatsup
07-04-2009, 03:40 PM
I spoke to a land agent that made 8 sales in March 09 ( in West Auckland ) for a take home pay packet of $70,000.00 not too bad in a bad market!!!!!!

Dr_Who
09-04-2009, 03:29 PM
Here comes the property market boom again. The cycle usually starts with banks lending.

HSBC Plans Loans to Homebuyers With 10% Deposit
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=a1KyeoJfg_oI&refer=uk

minimoke
09-04-2009, 05:14 PM
2nd consecutive month of house sale value increase (up 3% this year) and less time on market and more sales. Sections holding their value at a 10 month high and at the same level as the 07’ peaks.

Dr_Who
12-04-2009, 07:28 AM
This is the idiot that was telling everyone a few months back that the property market was going to fall over 30% and now he sudden turns around and tells everyone it is a good time to buy. Hey, guess what, the market have only fallen slightly. What a joke! They are all just a herd of sheep.

As I said before and will say again, the so called "experts" got it wrong the last bubble and they will get it wrong this bubble.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10566201

disclosure: been accumulating a property portfolio in the last few months.

POSSUM THE CAT
12-04-2009, 03:56 PM
does somebody need some extra real estate advertising revenue

minimoke
30-04-2009, 08:35 AM
Westpac New Zealand has confirmed a 0.4 percent cut to its 6-month fixed housing lending rate. This brings its 6-month home loan rate to 5.39 percent. The rate will be effective from Friday

The Great Gold Guru
30-04-2009, 11:40 AM
The Reserve Bank couldn't have been more explicit to the banks today ... there is no need to have such high long term rates as we will be here ( at 2.50% or lower ) until late next year.

Only 1 rate change so far today ... Westpac 6mth dn 40bps

Why are our banks so slow in reacting to such positive news for mortgage payers !!

Pathetic!!

minimoke
30-04-2009, 12:07 PM
Why are our banks so slow in reacting to such positive news for mortgage payers !!

Thats the "Good News" bit to the shareholders. Id imagine an honest Bank announcement to the market today would go something like this: "Don't worrry: we've got our hands squeezing the balls of the homeowner and he simply ain't squeeling loud enough. And until that noisy RB gnat does something to bite and hurt us we'll keep ignoring it and rake in the profits for you."

POSSUM THE CAT
30-04-2009, 02:29 PM
Maybe you would like the banks to get all there money from the reserve bank at official cash rates. Then they will have to put your tax rates up to supply them with money.

The Great Gold Guru
06-05-2009, 08:12 AM
I track the number of properties listed for sale on TradeMe as a useful tool to get a feel for nationwide trends. Number peaked just under 94,000 earlier this year ... is 91,270 this morning which I would say is the lowest number for a good six/nine months. Still a big number but the trend is certainly down which is good news.

minimoke
11-05-2009, 07:48 AM
Our from QV today.
The decline in property values has improved for the first time since September 2007, suggesting the housing market freefall could soon be over.
Quotable Value monthly statistics showed national property values decreased 9.2 per cent in the year ending April 30 a slight improvement on the 9.3 per cent reported in March.
QV spokesman Blue Hancock said the April figure was because of a stabilisation in prices paid during the past few months.
Property values in the main centres had flattened, with figures for Wellington, Auckland, Hamilton, Christchurch and Dunedin all improving.

The Great Gold Guru
11-05-2009, 10:52 AM
Listings on TradeMe keep falling ... 91,201 this morning , down about 600 from a week ago.

Nice rate cuts from ANZ National last week ... 1Yr fixed at 5.50% looks the go !!

minimoke
11-05-2009, 11:30 AM
Listings on TradeMe keep falling ... 91,201 this morning , down about 600 from a week ago.

Nice rate cuts from ANZ National last week ... 1Yr fixed at 5.50% looks the go !!In the past 17 years EVERY April has recorded less sales than the month before. There is about a 15% average drop in April compared with teh previous March.

Seven out of these 17 years has seen a drop off in price from the previous month. It seems we have a very well established trend that sales at this time of year fall away - and we know this is often due to the winter settling of the market where people tend to stay indoors rather than go shopping.

We should expect to see the REINZ report sales down for April 09 to be down as well. If the doom gllom merchants are to be believed I reckon number of sales for April have to be down by at least 20% and price has to be down as well. If number of sales are down less than 15% and if values increase then I think that wil be a very clear pointer that some people have missed the boat - but lets see what comes out in the next few days.

upside_umop
11-05-2009, 01:50 PM
Our from QV today.
The decline in property values has improved for the first time since September 2007, suggesting the housing market freefall could soon be over.
Quotable Value monthly statistics showed national property values decreased 9.2 per cent in the year ending April 30 a slight improvement on the 9.3 per cent reported in March.
QV spokesman Blue Hancock said the April figure was because of a stabilisation in prices paid during the past few months.
Property values in the main centres had flattened, with figures for Wellington, Auckland, Hamilton, Christchurch and Dunedin all improving.

Minimoke, I would have thought you wouldn't post this. Missing the boat? Nahh..lets take a closer look at those two figures stated.

9.3% over the year is 0.78 so circa ~0.80% per month, right?

So, for housing to have stabilized, this 9.3% per year would have to go to 9.3%-0.80%=8.5% to show any stabilization in prices.

Anything above 8.5% would indicate further month on month declines, and anything less would indicate month on month gains. Surely you can establish what has happened in this case!

9.2%>8.5% --> Housing market still not in good shape.

Try telling an average first home buyer who bought 16 months ago, that your sorry for advising them to buy, because they just lost another ~$2500 (0.80%*330,000) on their house this month, as well as around $40k in preceding months!

Not a good news story I'm afraid.

I will admit there are some good signs, however, most notably lack of supply side.

End of story is, house prices are still declining.

fungus pudding
11-05-2009, 02:13 PM
Minimoke, I would have thought you wouldn't post this. Missing the boat? Nahh..lets take a closer look at those two figures stated.

9.3% over the year is 0.78 so circa ~0.80% per month, right?

So, for housing to have stabilized, this 9.3% per year would have to go to 9.3%-0.80%=8.5% to show any stabilization in prices.

Anything above 8.5% would indicate further month on month declines, and anything less would indicate month on month gains. Surely you can establish what has happened in this case!

9.2%>8.5% --> Housing market still not in good shape.

Try telling an average first home buyer who bought 16 months ago, that your sorry for advising them to buy, because they just lost another ~$2500 (0.80%*330,000) on their house this month, as well as around $40k in preceding months!

Not a good news story I'm afraid.

I will admit there are some good signs, however, most notably lack of supply side.

End of story is, house prices are still declining.


They'll bob up and down a bit with the large interest rate reductions. But there is a day of reckoning with these low rates and I can't see Bollard holding them down as long as he indicated. If house prices show a real sign of recovery - he'll pull the pin. Apart from that even though mtge. costs are low, the buyer is still left with a debt that is right out of whack with average incomes. Always better to buy when interest rates are high. I'd rather pay 20% interest on a $200k loan, than 10% on a $400k loan. Remember it's affordability that determines the price - and when one goes down the other goes up. Medium to long term - housing should be seen as a roof over your head, but definitely not as an investment.

minimoke
11-05-2009, 02:18 PM
Not a good news story I'm afraid.

We’ve got Hickey and Morgan saying properties will drop by 30 – 40%. Surely its good news that QV reckon the decline in values has pretty much ceased. We’re in Christchurch – isn’t it good news that figures are improving! And Wellington and Auckland (the nations biggest city is also improving – that’s got to be good news. First home owners and investors are coming back to the market – nothing gloomy about that. We know values went up in January, February and March (that’s good news) so It will be interesting to see if April sees increases – we’ll know in a few days so those that bought earlier this year will be smiling. 16 months ago there were around 7,800 buyers., This year there has been around 20,000 happy buyers – that’s good news.

upside_umop
11-05-2009, 02:46 PM
We’ve got Hickey and Morgan saying properties will drop by 30 – 40%. Surely its good news that QV reckon the decline in values has pretty much ceased. We’re in Christchurch – isn’t it good news that figures are improving! And Wellington and Auckland (the nations biggest city is also improving – that’s got to be good news. First home owners and investors are coming back to the market – nothing gloomy about that. We know values went up in January, February and March (that’s good news) so It will be interesting to see if April sees increases – we’ll know in a few days so those that bought earlier this year will be smiling. 16 months ago there were around 7,800 buyers., This year there has been around 20,000 happy buyers – that’s good news.

25% in real terms is my expectation. 30% isnt far off from that. We already have what? Must be greater than 15% in real terms now huh?

Declines ceased? I just showed you proof they havent!

It depends by what you mean improving? My house dropped in value last month, but by not as much as the month before. Is this good news? No, it restricts peoples ability to borrow more, as the underlying (house) isnt as much security as now.

Homeowners and investors are coming back to the market. Unfortunately, theres not enough cash in NZ savings to fund all this. The next marginal % of interest rates are coming from overseas. Imagine if we get a credit down grade. National is in between a rock and a hard place, dont want to cut services (reduce govt spending), but if they dont, then add another 100-150 basis points onto our cost of borrowing (quoting ireland here).

I dont know that they did go up in Jan, Feb, March. According to REINZ they did?...but i look at QV, so does the RBNZ, so do most economists. I'll have to check it out. According to QV they still declined in April, as shown in my last post.

Happy buyers is a bit of generalization. I bet there will be some regretting it!

There is still a lot of risks to the domestic economy, but also upside. Time will tell. I'm sitting tight (because I have to) but even if I had a job, I wouldnt be buying at this minute.

minimoke
11-05-2009, 02:54 PM
Declines ceased? I just showed you proof they havent!

Since this is the Good News thread I'd prefer not to get into a debate which introduces doom and gloom (though more than happy to debate on other threads) so lets just take a more positive view direct from QV" "Recent stabilisation of property values in many areas suggests that we may be near the bottom of the market."

Dr_Who
11-05-2009, 04:41 PM
Some people like to live on Fantasy island and still think that the property does not more in cycles.

upside_umop
11-05-2009, 05:45 PM
Some people like to live on Fantasy island and still think that the property does not more in cycles.

Dr, Im just pointing out the facts mate. It appears you live in fantasy if your reading them any different to the way I am.

boysy
11-05-2009, 08:03 PM
im not sure how much weight you can put in these numbers but surely the fundementals are still looking dire for the housing market. Sure supply is relatively fixed but demand is based upon many factors none of which are looking positive apart from lower mortgage rates. Facts are that people have less job security, banks are not willing to lend at previous levels higher deposits are required. People who belive otherwise are a bit in lala land i would not trust the REINZ comments and opinions as far as i could throw them and QV are sure putting a spin on their figures. Sure the housing market has fallen and the media will try and say the worst is over but buyer beware.

minimoke
12-05-2009, 02:43 PM
In the past 17 years EVERY April has recorded less sales than the month before. There is about a 15% average drop in April compared with teh previous March.

Seven out of these 17 years has seen a drop off in price from the previous month. It seems we have a very well established trend that sales at this time of year fall away - and we know this is often due to the winter settling of the market where people tend to stay indoors rather than go shopping.

We should expect to see the REINZ report sales down for April 09 to be down as well. If the doom gllom merchants are to be believed I reckon number of sales for April have to be down by at least 20% and price has to be down as well. If number of sales are down less than 15% and if values increase then I think that wil be a very clear pointer that some people have missed the boat - but lets see what comes out in the next few days.
REINZ figures just out: Another 1.5% increase this month in value and sales dropped back only 7.2% on the previous month – when historically April sales drop back 15% from March sales. We are now looking at a 4.6% increase in values this year the third consecutive month of increased values.

fungus pudding
12-05-2009, 04:07 PM
REINZ figures just out: Another 1.5% increase this month in value and sales dropped back only 7.2% on the previous month – when historically April sales drop back 15% from March sales. We are now looking at a 4.6% increase in values this year the third consecutive month of increased values.

The REINZ do not report values. They report the median sale price which naturally enough has risen because banks have tightened lending policies, and that's clobbered the first home/lower priced sales. With low sales numbers in the low price range the median will rise regardless of the average.

minimoke
12-05-2009, 04:17 PM
The REINZ do not report values. They report the median sale price which naturally enough has risen because banks have tightened lending policies, and that's clobbered the first home/lower priced sales. With low sales numbers in the low price range the median will rise regardless of the average.QV also report sale price and REINZ report average sales as well. If you want REINZ Average sale price you'll see that April was the third consecutive month of increased values.

neopoleII
12-05-2009, 05:42 PM
in the meantime, the govt gets deeper into the red, and as the deficict balloons, cost cuts will come into play.......... one of the cost cuts will be the exorbandant cash thrown at the housing suppliment payouts given to benifisharies and low income workers to pay high rents on investment property rentals.
once the housing suppliment gets reduced, house prices will continue to fall, as they should, as they are still expensive for "medium" wage earners to afford, compared to the "average" wage earner.
there is some $15000 to $18000 difference between a medium wage earner and an average wage earner, and most kiwis fall into the medium bracket.


IMHO a $15hr factory worker should be able to buy/rent a house close to his factory without relying on the state to pay for his accomodation............

fungus pudding
12-05-2009, 08:15 PM
QV also report sale price and REINZ report average sales as well. If you want REINZ Average sale price you'll see that April was the third consecutive month of increased values.


Nobody publishes values, although when it suits the REINZ put that spin on the median.
As far as I'm aware the REINZ have only publishlished the median for the last ten to fifteen years, and QV only publish the average. But regardless neither the median or the average have got anything to do with value. Both median and average can be rising while values are falling, and vice versa.

minimoke
12-05-2009, 08:27 PM
Nobody publishes values, although when it suits the REINZ put that spin on the median.
As far as I'm aware the REINZ have only publishlished the median for the last ten to fifteen years, and QV only publish the average. But regardless neither the median or the average have got anything to do with value. Both median and average can be rising while values are falling, and vice versa.
Is value not the agreed price between a willing buyer and a willing seller. REINZ has 17 years of data - of which they gernally report the median. But you can extraoplate an average if you want. What we are seein g with REINZ is a reversal of a trend and begingin to see it with QVs trailing three month average. What I don't understand is how the doom gloom people happily accept QV and REINZ data when the trend is falling but quiter on the reversal.. We've now got Hickey coming out saying the develuations wil occur in a non-linear manner

fungus pudding
12-05-2009, 08:44 PM
Is value not the agreed price between a willing buyer and a willing seller. REINZ has 17 years of data - of which they gernally report the median. But you can extraoplate an average if you want. What we are seein g with REINZ is a reversal of a trend and begingin to see it with QVs trailing three month average. What I don't understand is how the doom gloom people happily accept QV and REINZ data when the trend is falling but quiter on the reversal.. We've now got Hickey coming out saying the develuations wil occur in a non-linear manner


Yes - value is the price between two willing parties. You cannot work out the average from the median, and neither the average or median tells you the increase or decrease in value. If all properties fall in value by say 20%, and the low end stops or slows (as it will when values fall) then the median will rise, the average will probably rise and your money will buy a better property than it would have previously because values have fallen. An extremely good indication of what the market is doing is to look at the number of properties on the market that are sticking. That's another thing that is distorted with 'days on market' quoted by the REINZ. It only relates to days on market of the ones that actually sell; even then those figures are often rubbish, because there is no way of checking each agents returns as far as days on market are concerned. At the moment there are heaps of unsold properties throughout the country. There are huge numbers of properties that have been withdrawn waiting for better times. The market is still depressed.

minimoke
13-05-2009, 06:51 AM
Yes - value is the price between two willing parties. You cannot work out the average from the median, and neither the average or median tells you the increase or decrease in value. If all properties fall in value by say 20%, and the low end stops or slows (as it will when values fall) then the median will rise, the average will probably rise and your money will buy a better property than it would have previously because values have fallen. An extremely good indication of what the market is doing is to look at the number of properties on the market that are sticking. That's another thing that is distorted with 'days on market' quoted by the REINZ. It only relates to days on market of the ones that actually sell; even then those figures are often rubbish, because there is no way of checking each agents returns as far as days on market are concerned. At the moment there are heaps of unsold properties throughout the country. There are huge numbers of properties that have been withdrawn waiting for better times. The market is still depressed.
One of the other things why I like the REINZ data is that it does give me averages as well as the median. Granted, it doesn’t give me days on market before properties are pulled – but I’m not aware of any data source that does. Nor I am I aware of any data source that ever has – so there is little point in looking at this data if it doesn’t exist in any meaningful way. Even though you may not like the “days on market” data – at least it is data from which we can draw conclusions.

So the good news, for those that prefer “Average“ data is that April figure averages are the highest they have been in 10 months and there has been month on month increase since a low was hit in Jan ‘09. Since then values have risen $22.5k or 6.1%. Values off the Nov 07 high show a drop of $24k of 5.7% nowhere near the 30% or 40% the doom gloom people have been banging about for the past few years. If we want to use Shrewdy’s price point from the other thread he would have seen a 5.1% increase in value or $19k.

For properties to sell they have to be made available to the market. We can see that compared with the same time last year there was a 39.5% increase in the number of sales and one of the highest selling months in the past 17 months. Days on market may not be a preferred indicator but they did drop 4.5% compared with the same period last year and the fastest turn around in the past 12 months. And thats all got to be good news.

fungus pudding
13-05-2009, 07:13 AM
One of the other things why I like the REINZ data is that it does give me averages as well as the median. Granted, it doesn’t give me days on market before properties are pulled – but I’m not aware of any data source that does. Nor I am I aware of any data source that ever has – so there is little point in looking at this data if it doesn’t exist in any meaningful way. Even though you may not like the “days on market” data – at least it is data from which we can draw conclusions.

So the good news, for those that prefer “Average“ data is that April figure averages are the highest they have been in 10 months and there has been month on month increase since a low was hit in Jan ‘09. Since then values have risen $22.5k or 6.1%. Values off the Nov 07 high show a drop of $24k of 5.7% nowhere near the 30% or 40% the doom gloom people have been banging about for the past few years. If we want to use Shrewdy’s price point from the other thread he would have seen a 5.1% increase in value or $19k.

For properties to sell they have to be made available to the market. We can see that compared with the same time last year there was a 39.5% increase in the number of sales and one of the highest selling months in the past 17 months. Days on market may not be a preferred indicator but they did drop 4.5% compared with the same period last year and the fastest turn around in the past 12 months. And thats all got to be good news.


You are confusing sale price which is the reported figure, with value. They are the same when analysing only one sale, but when looking at the whole market it tells you absolutely nothing about value. What you should ask is will xyz property sell for the same price? more? less? than it did 12 - 24 months ago. Generally prices are weaker, so while the median has risen in many areas your money will now buy you a better property than it would have. The dungers which were fetching good money during the hot market are now difficult to sell and there is more activity further up the price ladder, so average and median rise - value falls.

minimoke
13-05-2009, 07:47 AM
You are confusing sale price which is the reported figure, with value.
No – I’m aware of the limitations of the data. But a bigger problem is taking hard data (like the sale price of a single property 12 months ago) and then trying to come up with a “valuation” of that property today. A valuer can put a whole pile of variables into the mix and come up with a number – but is by no means assured that the number he comes up with is what the property will sell for given there is actually a willing buyer and seller. Indeed most valuers will not give an absolute value – they will give a range.

The other problem we have is the number of housing stock that turns over within in a 12 month period. As a nation we don’t turn our properties over every 12 months so it is near on impossible to come up with those sorts of comparisons. And it would be a long bow to draw to say, where there are examples of a single property tuning over in 12 months, that this could be extrapolated to the whole market.

A final problem we have is that we don’t have the whole data set. I don’t know where the properties were selling in say $5k bands so I can’t make comparisons of say sales in the $300 - $305k band. If someone has that data and can add to the thread then that would be great. Other wise we are talking around figures we simply don’t have.

I guess my main point is that in times of a declining market the doom gloom people have been happy to point to the QV and REINZ data to support their position. If that’s the case they should be able to use the same data and come up with a view. Except they are not because the data isn’t telling them the story they want to tell. And lets not forget in the boom times it was the QV and REINZ data that people looked at to tell stories of a fantastic property market.

miner
13-05-2009, 08:36 AM
I don't look at any of the stuff you do Mini BUT what I have done for my area is keep all the reality mags for years and that gives me all the info you say is not available and believe me there are lots that have been on for years and in that time have only been going one way DOWN,one's that have been pulled and put back on as new listings,or just pulled,all the price reductions from 20-50%,basically all the dirty tricks they do I can see.

So NOTHING to do with doom and gloom,just not in denial as some are,so all GOOD news and NO rush to buy for now,will leave you to talk yourself out of what I have just said.

Cheers
miner

minimoke
13-05-2009, 09:21 AM
The dungers which were fetching good money during the hot market are now difficult to sell and there is more activity further up the price ladder, so average and median rise - value falls.
From todays news:
With both volume and median sale price of houses changing this month, economists are saying the property market - a leading indicator of the whole New Zealand economy - is slowly improving. T his slow turn-around was the market responding to the very low interest rates being offered, Deutsche Bank spokesman Darren Gibbs said.
However, he wondered if the recovery would progress further in 2009, given the general weakness of the rest of the economy -- though the bank was expecting a five percent month-on-month rise for May, he said.
Also, the sales figures hinted at a possible imminent construction boom, he said.
"When NZ was last turning over 6500 houses per month, new construction was running at 24,000 consents annualised, versus 12,000 currently," he said.
The rebounding activity strengthened Goldman Sachs's opinion domestic demand will increase through the second half of 2009, he said.
House sales continued to be strongest in the under $400,000 price bracket, accounting for nearly 4000 of the total April sales

minimoke
13-05-2009, 09:48 AM
From todays news:

Also, the sales figures hinted at a possible imminent construction boom, he said.

And on that point – more sections sold in April than in any of the previous 13 months, time on market has dropped back for the 3rd month in a row and average price has increased from last month. And median value only down 0.60% off the Nov 07 high.

fungus pudding
13-05-2009, 12:06 PM
And on that point – more sections sold in April than in any of the previous 13 months, time on market has dropped back for the 3rd month in a row and average price has increased from last month. And median value only down 0.60% off the Nov 07 high.


The good news is that soon the REINZ will begin using a new formula for price reporting, which I believe has been promoted by the reserve bank to circumvent the misunderstanding, as evidenced in this thread, by quoting medians and averages.

minimoke
13-05-2009, 12:41 PM
The good news is that soon the REINZ will begin using a new formula for price reporting, which I believe has been promoted by the reserve bank to circumvent the misunderstanding, as evidenced in this thread, by quoting medians and averages.
Dang - that will surely make previous period comparrisons harder won't it!. At least with REINZ data you can see the median and work out the averages. I'd imagine with the slow down in property sales Real Estate agents are probably conducting more of the proerty sales than in the peak of the cycle when there might have been more private sale and off market transactions. I reckon their figures are fine - as long as they are used knowing their limitations. Hopefully QV will publish and make accessible the depth of data REINZ does - that might make things more intersting!.

fungus pudding
13-05-2009, 12:58 PM
Dang - that will surely make previous period comparrisons harder won't it!. At least with REINZ data you can see the median and work out the averages.


Once again. It is not possible to work out the average price by only knowing the median. Full stop.

minimoke
13-05-2009, 01:21 PM
Once again. It is not possible to work out the average price by only knowing the median. Full stop.
Funguspudding - unless maths has changed recently I thought that if you took total $ value sales and divided by the number of sales you'de come up with average sale price. So if I have total sales of $2,451,424,305 and 6,210 sales I end up with an average of $394,754. Doesn't mean to say the mean still can't be $340,000. When you come to correting my math (which I welcome as I'm always ready to learn) would you mind using a larger font because the bolding just doesn't do it for me.

minimoke
04-06-2009, 09:44 AM
Real estate firm Barfoot & Thompson says May saw its best month's trading in more than two years in the Auckland housing market.



Barfoot, which handles around one third of home sales in Auckland, sold 814 homes in May, 1 percent higher than sales in April, and 58.1 percent higher than in May last year.


Managing director Peter Thompson said May was the best month's trading in more than two years in terms of achieving both high volume and high prices. However, he said there were a low number of homes available for sale.





"It was also the third consecutive month when we sold more than 800 homes, a target we never achieved once last year," he added.
Barfoot said the average sale price for a home was $533,909 in May, a 12-month high. This was a 6.2 percent increase from the average April 2009 price and essentially level with prices in May last year.


He said there was a noticeable increase in demand for homes in more established suburbs and it added up to a housing market that was "active, confident and stable."

minimoke
08-06-2009, 08:40 AM
In news today from QV.


The residential property market showed "considerable improvement" in May as values stabilised, latest figures from QV Valuations show.


That was a considerable improvement on the 9.2 percent decline reported for the year to April, and was the second month in a row where the year-on-year change had improved, QV said.


This improvement is due to continued stabilisation of property values in recent months, and contrasts significantly to a market that was declining sharply 12 months ago."


The QV figures support recent upbeat reports from the real estate industry.


QV spokeswoman Glenda Whitehead said established investors were now back in the market, along with first home buyers and those looking to upgrade.


Property values in all main centres increased slightly in recent months.

minimoke
03-07-2009, 04:10 PM
Real estate firm Barfoot & Thompson says May saw its best month's trading in more than two years in the Auckland housing market.

More from B and T this month:

The latest housing data out of Auckland shows a strong comeback in June, suggesting a pick up in residential construction is just around the corner according to an economist.


Sales and price data released by Barfoot & Thompson today showed 861 houses were sold by the company, which makes about a third of Auckland residential property sales, in June. This was an increase of 5.8 percent over May and a 54.9 percent increase on sales in June last year.


June is typically one of the slowest months for real estate, but recent months have bucked traditional trends.


GoldmanSachs JBWere strategist Bernard Doyle said the bounce in Auckland house sales bodes well for nationwide activity and suggested a better future for construction.


"It supports our view that weaker sales volumes in May were likely reflective of month to month volatility than anything fundamental," he said.
"That said, the near vertical trajectory in house sales activity must begin to level off soon. Either way, for the construction sector, today's data reinforces our view that residential construction activity is due for an imminent pick-up from multi-decade lows," he added.


Barfoot managing director Peter Thompson said the Auckland housing market had made a remarkable recovery from the challenges of the past 18 months.


"It's hard to dismiss the robust sales of recent months as a temporary reprieve in the ongoing decline of housing values," said Thompson.


"The strength of the Auckland housing market can be added to the list of 'green shoots' indicating that the economy in general, and people's confidence, is starting to stabilise."


Thompson said the biggest challenge facing the company was obtaining new listings, saying at the end of June its total listings had fallen to 5557, the lowest level for the past 20 months.

minimoke
06-07-2009, 09:09 AM
From todays news:
Latest figures from Quotable Value show houses around New Zealand grew in value by an average of 0.4 per cent during the last quarter.



The average sale price rose to $378,535 in June, about $7000 higher than the May average.

Property values increased in most cities around the country during the last quarter.

Property investors and first- home buyers able to meet high deposit requirements are getting back into the market, with sales up 50 per cent on a year ago and real estate agents short of listings of cheaper properties.

minimoke
06-07-2009, 09:12 AM
Theres a surprise. He reckons property values aren't going to fall 30% after all. He's retracting that view today and is going for a 15% fall off the Nov 07 high.

fungus pudding
06-07-2009, 09:30 AM
From todays news:
Latest figures from Quotable Value show houses around New Zealand grew in value by an average of 0.4 per cent during the last quarter.

The average sale price rose to $378,535 in June, about $7000 higher than the May average.

Property values increased in most cities around the country during the last quarter.



QV figures show no such thing, in spite of what they say. They record sales prices and report an avarage. The real estate institute record the median and report that. Neither of them record value. It is quite possible for average and/or median sales prices to be rising , while values are actually falling; and vice versa. There will always be a rise in averages after an interest rate reduction. Interest rates and property prices are opposite ends of a see-saw. The question is will your money buy the same house as it would 18 months ago, or would it buy a better one? I think first time buyers, or cheaper homes have slowed up as a result of bank lending policies. That causes a rise in the average, but can also decrease value.

minimoke
06-07-2009, 12:11 PM
I think first time buyers, or cheaper homes have slowed up as a result of bank lending policies.
From the same press release:
"Property investors and first- home buyers able to meet high deposit requirements are getting back into the market, with sales up 50 per cent on a year ago and real estate agents short of listings of cheaper properties."

minimoke
06-07-2009, 12:17 PM
QV figures show no such thing, in spite of what they say.
Be that as it may, the QV figures are widely regarded as a sytamtent of "Value". Provided they keep the same formula for calculating this "value" we can at least measure the trends over time - and what QV are saying, it appears, is that the market has bottomed and values / prices are on their way up.

Dr_Who
07-07-2009, 09:41 AM
Theres a surprise. He reckons property values aren't going to fall 30% after all. He's retracting that view today and is going for a 15% fall off the Nov 07 high.

He reminds of these insurance salemen who calls themselves investment advisors giving investment advice to mum and dads on finance companies.

minimoke
07-07-2009, 12:05 PM
He reminds of these insurance salemen who calls themselves investment advisors giving investment advice to mum and dads on finance companies.
And here he is reckoning the trough won't be reached for many years -assuring himself an income from spruiking his opinions for a while yet.
http://www.3news.co.nz/Video/Michael-Wilson-talks-house-prices-with-Bernard-Hickey-and-Alistair-Helm/tabid/369/articleID/111497/cat/52/Default.aspx#video

But heres the good news. These commentators keep reckoning on a fall from the market highs in Nov 07. Soon they'll change tack.

Its now time to start talking about the increases since the market bottomed out - which we can probably take as September '08 - since 50,000 approx buyers have come to the market since then. Back then the median was $330,000 and the average $382,800. Lets talk about the 2.3% increase in median or the 3.6% increase in average. Both equally valid numbers, IMO, if we are going to continue letting Bernard fill our airwaves with his neagative views.

November 07 is now just becoming a data point in time - but no longer a decent reference point. Who'se to say tehe was ever any validity in that date anyway - it could well have been that market prices overshot values. Lets at least start providing some balance and put up some other reference points!.

minimoke
10-07-2009, 06:50 AM
In a sign the market has surely passed the bootomed out stage banks are now relaxing their 20% deposit critera. Westapc are now looking at borowers with less than 20% - perhaps lending now to selected borrowers up to 90% of a home loan

minimoke
10-07-2009, 07:03 AM
Another 0.7% INCREASE in REINZ sale price during the month of June bringing the figure to $340,000 with median days on market DOWN to 41 days.

Average sale price is now UP 3.3% to $395,547 from the September 08 lows 0f $382,808.

All this during winter in a recession!

Dr_Who
15-07-2009, 09:35 PM
Wheres all the doomsayers posters that predicted the property will drop 30-40% gone??

Still renting?

minimoke
16-07-2009, 09:58 AM
Wheres all the doomsayers posters that predicted the property will drop 30-40% gone??

Still renting?
Perhaps wondering if they should buy some land and build instead. Except the good news is median section prices increased last month from $170,00 to $178,250 and up from the september 08 low of $167,000.

miner
16-07-2009, 02:37 PM
Depends where your looking,as have watched quiet a few drop 20-30 %,including one on the weekend that has just recently dropped in asking price by 25%,as for sections try a subdivision that started at 169k-187k(cheap compared to others) and are now down to 150k as only one has sold,each to there own.

Cheers
Miner

fungus pudding
16-07-2009, 03:22 PM
Depends where your looking,as have watched quiet a few drop 20-30 %,including one on the weekend that has just recently dropped in asking price by 25%,as for sections try a subdivision that started at 169k-187k(cheap compared to others) and are now down to 150k as only one has sold,each to there own.

Cheers
Miner

Yep. seems prime sections are selling well - but below previous prices in many areas, but there are plenty that just won't sell, particularly at lower end. So medians are up, but values are down. Pretty much the same with housing overall.

minimoke
16-07-2009, 03:39 PM
Yep. seems prime sections are selling well - but below previous prices in many areas, but there are plenty that just won't sell, particularly at lower end. So medians are up, but values are down. Pretty much the same with housing overall.
The good news is that in May average prices were at $219,128, up from the Sept 08 average of $200,736.

And in June time on market time had dropped down to 91 days after a few months at over 100days.

fungus pudding
16-07-2009, 03:51 PM
The good news is that in May average prices were at $219,128, up from the Sept 08 average of $200,736.

And in June time on market time had dropped down to 91 days after a few months at over 100days.

I'm not sure why that's good news. The average is up because lower priced stuff just isn't rating. Time on market for sections is a joke - don't believe what you read about that. There is a tendency for agents to fudge those figures by 'relisting' a section at a new price and forgetting about the two years it had been for sale before that - perhaps previously listed with the agent down the road. Fact is sections are cheaper now in many parts of NZ. Average up, median up, value down. Fools a few and the REINZ love quoting medians and values, but they never ever report values. Mind you value is what they quote when listing, pricing or persuading a buyer to accept an offer. They obtain it through a CMA or comparative market analysis. It's a rough method, but nearer the mark than meaningless medians or averages.

Dr_Who
17-07-2009, 04:34 PM
If you cant see that the Auckland property have turned you must be blind. I suggest you go visit your local optometrist.

ari
21-07-2009, 05:38 PM
Yep it's turned in Auckland...just sold house privately (with 2 buyers interested same weekend) after 2 years on trade me and over 6000 hits. Last 2 months have shown a definite increase in daily hits.

minimoke
10-08-2009, 08:06 AM
In todays news from QV:
"
Nationwide property values were up 0.7 per cent in July, and have now gained 1.3 per cent since hitting a low in April, Quotable Value says in its latest survey.




The national average sale price was up $4223 to $382,758 from June.


The market seems to have returned to some form of normality," QV valuations manager Glenda Whitehead said. "Buyers are making rational, carefully considered decisions based more on fact than emotion."

fungus pudding
10-08-2009, 08:27 AM
In todays news from QV:
"
Nationwide property values were up 0.7 per cent in July, and have now gained 1.3 per cent since hitting a low in April, Quotable Value says in its latest survey.




The national average sale price was up $4223 to $382,758 from June.


The market seems to have returned to some form of normality," QV valuations manager Glenda Whitehead said. "Buyers are making rational, carefully considered decisions based more on fact than emotion."

Don't fall into the trap of interpreting the average price increase as a value increase. For instance in my area averages and median are both up, but $400,000 will buy a very much better property than it would have around 18 months ago, so values are down. The same applies broadly across the price ranges. QV and the REINZ both use the misnomer 'value increase' to describe any numbers that show an increase. It's deceptive.

Ptolemy
10-08-2009, 02:46 PM
Also from the QV, supporting your take.

http://www.qv.co.nz/propertyinformation/KnowledgeCentre/thechangingnzpropertymarket07082009.htm

Basically says that properties in the lower end of the market not selling and most sales in the mid/upper which is dragging up both medians and averages.

This supports your supposition FP. Interesting that most people are interpreting higher prices as a bad thing, yet evidence is pretty clear that a return to increasing house prices and higher debt levels on unproductive assets are definitely bad for an economy.

Any renewal of the property boom is likely to result in another recession before we have a chance to recover from this one.

winner69
10-08-2009, 03:15 PM
Don't fall into the trap of interpreting the average price increase as a value increase. For instance in my area averages and median are both up, but $400,000 will buy a very much better property than it would have around 18 months ago, so values are down. The same applies broadly across the price ranges. QV and the REINZ both use the misnomer 'value increase' to describe any numbers that show an increase. It's deceptive.

I see Reserve Bank got involved and intro a new stratification index which is designed to allow for cheap / expensive suburbs sort of stuff and give a realistic view ... working with REINZ I think

fungus pudding
10-08-2009, 03:21 PM
I see Reserve Bank got involved and intro a new stratification index which is designed to allow for cheap / expensive suburbs sort of stuff and give a realistic view ... working with REINZ I think

Yep, and it's about time. Not sure when the new system will start, but it's not too far away.

minimoke
10-08-2009, 03:48 PM
Basically says that properties in the lower end of the market not selling and most sales in the mid/upper which is dragging up both medians and averages.


Actually, in July, according to QV there was more activity in the low end stock and values are increasing in the mid range homes.

winner69
10-08-2009, 03:58 PM
Yep, and it's about time. Not sure when the new system will start, but it's not too far away.

This week for July sales I gather

fungus pudding
10-08-2009, 06:16 PM
Time for a friggin' tax on secondary properties !!!!

I.e. a requirement for secondary properties changes in value to be registered every tax year and the gain added to rents and taxed.

If the damn politians weren't so heavily invested in secondary properties this would have happened ages ago!

Presumably you'd like to see the same rules applied to shares as well. They've always been treated the same.

The Great Gold Guru
10-08-2009, 07:50 PM
I own 8 rental properties ... I aim to double that in the next 12 months ... houses are cheap , rental demand is increasing , enough said.

Raising finance will be the hard part ... finding great capital/rental growth property will be easy.

Current portfolio sits at 63% LVR and is cashflow positive by $1800pm ... equity and cashflow to burn !!

minimoke
11-08-2009, 08:04 AM
Don't fall into the trap of interpreting the average price increase as a value increase. For instance in my area averages and median are both up, but $400,000 will buy a very much better property than it would have around 18 months ago, so values are down. The same applies broadly across the price ranges. QV and the REINZ both use the misnomer 'value increase' to describe any numbers that show an increase. It's deceptive.
FGP, these figures have been used for years and years. They have been used during times of "value" increase, boom times, bad times and now. They have been used by Governement, treasury and the Reserve Bank for policy setting. What they do is show an overall trend.

To find the true value is proably impossible because there are too many variables in trying to make a comparrison. For example in my neighbour hood you'd need to find two properties with the same sq metres, same no of bedrooms, bathrooms, lounges etc, same size land, same suburb, same school zones, same proximity to desirable services, distance from undesireable things etc. One of these house has to have sold a year ago , the other today to make a comparrison. It can't be done - and if it is the data can't be used to establish a national trend.

Your point remains valid though but I'm not aware of any measure where someone goes out and says what, say $350,000 will buy me in July '08 and what $350,000 (inflation and whatever else adjusted) will buy me in 2009. Over the past year or so there have probably been too few listings to make any comparrison reliable.

fungus pudding
11-08-2009, 08:57 AM
FGP, these figures have been used for years and years. They have been used during times of "value" increase, boom times, bad times and now. They have been used by Governement, treasury and the Reserve Bank for policy setting. What they do is show an overall trend.




Agreed, but after a large reduction in interest mortgage rates, new and tighter bank lending rules (particularly for first time buyers) and a general change in market sentiment, things change. The market has not moved in unison, and so there is the danger of interpreting a median rise as a rise in values. It's not always the case - and it certainly isn't currently.

Dr_Who
11-08-2009, 12:42 PM
I own 8 rental properties ... I aim to double that in the next 12 months ... houses are cheap , rental demand is increasing , enough said.

Raising finance will be the hard part ... finding great capital/rental growth property will be easy.

Current portfolio sits at 63% LVR and is cashflow positive by $1800pm ... equity and cashflow to burn !!

Hey TGGG, have you had a look around Grey Lynn and Ponsonby? The properties around there are in great demand. Crazy buyers are paying a huge premium to the valuation and outbidding eachother. I ve been looking around that area wanting to load up some more investment properties, but found it getting abit too pricy for me, so best to stay buying around the bays area.

miner
11-08-2009, 12:42 PM
Depends where your looking,as have watched quiet a few drop 20-30 %,including one on the weekend that has just recently dropped in asking price by 25%,as for sections try a subdivision that started at 169k-187k(cheap compared to others) and are now down to 150k as only one has sold,each to there own.

Cheers
Miner

The above sections are now 126k,so another 24k saving,bummer for the guy that bought the first one last year tho.

Cheers
Miner

upside_umop
11-08-2009, 05:25 PM
Yep, and it's about time. Not sure when the new system will start, but it's not too far away.

Already started my mushy friend.

http://apps.reinz.co.nz/reportingapp/?RFOPTION=Report&RFCODE=R100

I've had a brief look through my areas of interest, and yes...house prices have fallen in every single area that I've looked at.

- Ilam/Fendalton/Merivale

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2629/3810093829_accbe6545e_o.jpg


-Inside the 4 avenues

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3476/3810093497_61d614f115_o.jpg


Will higher forward interest rates and threat of job losses keep pushing this market down??

shambles
11-08-2009, 09:04 PM
http://www.nbr.co.nz/node/107301

minimoke
12-08-2009, 06:26 AM
Already started my mushy friend.

Since this is the "good news" thread , in todays paper

"House prices in Christchurch could rise by nearly 14 per cent in a year and 25 per cent in three years, a new report says.


The report, by economic forecaster Infometrics for mortgage insurer QBE LMI, says lower interest rates, rising immigration and a shortage of new houses will boost the market.


It also expects prices to rise faster in Christchurch than in most other centres as the city had a larger price correction after the housing boom.


"People selling property in Christchurch appear to have been more willing to lower their asking price than in other regions," the report says.
Bank of New Zealand chief economist Tony Alexander said it was now reasonable to expect prices to rise.


"I think they [Infometrics] are on the right track. It pretty much tallies with what we see happening because of the housing shortage," he said.
Westpac chief economist Brendan O'Donovan expects price rises, although Infometrics' forecast of 25 per cent in three years could be "a stretch".

minimoke
12-08-2009, 06:50 AM
I've had a brief look through my areas of interest, and yes...house prices have fallen in every single area that I've looked at.

Upside - thats the same set of REINZ data I've been using in all these posts for ages - theres nothing new there.

Heres another way of looking at your Merivale / Fendalton / Ilam / Strowan data which is also an area of interst for me.

What we see here is the median "values" coming down off their highs and bottoming out around Jan / Feb this year. From there we have seen increases from a low of $425,000 to the latest value of $487,500.

Thats a $62,500 INCREASE or an INCREASE of 14.8%

upside_umop
12-08-2009, 07:47 AM
Since this is the "good news" thread , in todays paper

"House prices in Christchurch could rise by nearly 14 per cent in a year and 25 per cent in three years, a new report says.


The report, by economic forecaster Infometrics for mortgage insurer QBE LMI, says lower interest rates, rising immigration and a shortage of new houses will boost the market.


It also expects prices to rise faster in Christchurch than in most other centres as the city had a larger price correction after the housing boom.


"People selling property in Christchurch appear to have been more willing to lower their asking price than in other regions," the report says.
Bank of New Zealand chief economist Tony Alexander said it was now reasonable to expect prices to rise.


"I think they [Infometrics] are on the right track. It pretty much tallies with what we see happening because of the housing shortage," he said.
Westpac chief economist Brendan O'Donovan expects price rises, although Infometrics' forecast of 25 per cent in three years could be "a stretch".

Yeah, I saw that. I dont believe houses will fall much further/if at all. I may look to dip my toes in the market the end of this year/early next year.

Might even ask your opinion MM if you'll be happy to help...nothing like experience! You coming to the next ST meeting in early September?

upside_umop
12-08-2009, 07:51 AM
Upside - thats the same set of REINZ data I've been using in all these posts for ages - theres nothing new there.

Heres another way of looking at your Merivale / Fendalton / Ilam / Strowan data which is also an area of interst for me.

What we see here is the median "values" coming down off their highs and bottoming out around Jan / Feb this year. From there we have seen increases from a low of $425,000 to the latest value of $487,500.

Thats a $62,500 INCREASE or an INCREASE of 14.8%

Isnt this the new 'stratified' data sets? I've never noticed it before...

Theres nothing new about the data, no. Its just that its split up into suburbs, where you can get a suburb by surburb view of whats happening in the market. As you can see, from the peak, house prices have definitely fallen and are alot more than $5k below their peak on average. When using the data set as a whole, the figures are skewed as mushy has been saying all along. Agree?

Things do look to be flattening out/slightly up in last few months. But look at the big picture...nice trend has developed since peak.

minimoke
12-08-2009, 08:06 AM
Its just that its split up into suburbs,
The suburb data has been there for ages. I think what is new (but only because I haven't used it) is the 1 month, three month and 12 month medians. You can also use this data to find the averages in each suburb over time as well. Easier to export the data to excel and write a few formulas from there.

minimoke
12-08-2009, 08:20 AM
IAs you can see, from the peak, house prices have definitely fallen and are alot more than $5k below their peak on average. When using the data set as a whole, the figures are skewed as mushy has been saying all along. Agree?

If we look at the trends we reached a peak in "values" around Nov '07 and those values then fell away. Well that was no surprise - values had to fall away at some stage. This was Bernard Hickeys "House values will fall 30%" era and it was all doom and gloom. Hence the reason for starting this thread - I reckoned it was never going to be as bad as the "pros" were making out and that we needed to be loking at the good stuff that was happening. What we can also see is a flattening off around the end of "08 begining of 09 and from there "values" have been increasing.

If we go back to Nov '07 we can probably carve off a few months data. Its probably fair to say the market overshot itself so the "highs" everyone refers to is probably an exagerated high - but still one that looked good in the media Everyone was going "oh, look at how much my house is worth now and I can borrow for the holiday home, rental preoperty and flat screen". They didn't realise that values do not go up all the time - they cycle up and down but the overall trend is up.

Nov 07 is not necessarily a good data anchor point though - which is why I've suggested we now anchor to Jan 09 figures as a starting point to measure growth - thats the good news perspective. And perhaps the start of a new cyclic wave.

But we shouldn't be expecting huge growth - thats unrealistic. And some people still seem to have unrealistic expectations. I wouldn't be paying, for example, $650k for a house on the old Sunnyside mental hospital site - but someone has high hopes!.

The Great Gold Guru
12-08-2009, 10:30 AM
Have put in an offer on a 2 flat villa in Wanganui yesterday. Asking is $149,000 from a UK based seller . I have offered $130k cash with settlement next Friday. With NZD so strong vs the Pound I thought a really quick clean offer would be tempting. Vendor has come back at $133k but I am sticking at my number. Currently rents for $120pw each flat but agent agrees with me that a $5k makeover on each would get rent upto $150pw each very easily. Rates are nasty at $2700pa ( 2 dwellings ) but still currently cashflow positive at 100% gearing with interest rates at 6% ( TSB 5.99% 2yr fix ) ... spend the money on the renovation and she really starts humming.

Looking at No. 2 this afternoon in Onehunga ... talk that Auckland prices could rocket due to serious housing shortage over next 3 years. See article at www.nzherald.co.nz

Capitalist
12-08-2009, 02:12 PM
Hickey is an idiot Moke. He is only interested in pushing his ideological barrow - reality just doesn't figure into it.

People make money out of property - fact. You can't stop them investing in it no matter how much some bobbleheads want them to.

Dr_Who
12-08-2009, 02:25 PM
Hickey is an idiot Moke. He is only interested in pushing his ideological barrow - reality just doesn't figure into it.

People make money out of property - fact. You can't stop them investing in it no matter how much some bobbleheads want them to.

I agree.

Didnt he make a prediction last year the property market collapse 30-40%? I guess alot of people (including some in here) believe in the crap that comes out of his mouth.

Is the National govt preparing us for a capital gains tax or are they blowing hot air again?

Capitalist
12-08-2009, 03:19 PM
I think they are blowing smoke Dr Who.

The mantra that NZers don't save enough is also rubbish - their houses are their savings.

Economists are contrarian indicators really -- and losers to boot. How often do see an economist on the Rich List?

MrDevine
12-08-2009, 04:41 PM
"eEconomists are contrarian indicators really -- and losers to boot."

Exactly, I reckon the media should start quoting posters on Sharetrader.

Well said Capitalist.

Mr D.

minimoke
13-08-2009, 09:20 AM
I think they are blowing smoke Dr Who.

The mantra that NZers don't save enough is also rubbish - their houses are their savings.

I'm inclined to agree. There seems to be a bit of envy over the past few years with how property owners have increased their overall wealth.

What people loose sight of is that landlords are up for tax on profits which includes the sale of a property at a value over the purchase price. Its just that IRD aren't good at tracking these missing taxes.

And there is nothing wrong with property as "saving". What we should be looking at is overall asset accumulation. Doesn't matter where or how - people might like fixed term deposit assets, kiwisaver assets, share assets, cash asset or property assets - or even a mix. What we shoudl be aiming for is an increase in an individuals wealth - but thats not politically paletable even for a National governement. Which is a shame.

Ptolemy
13-08-2009, 10:07 AM
And there is nothing wrong with property as "saving". What we should be looking at is overall asset accumulation. Doesn't matter where or how - people might like fixed term deposit assets, kiwisaver assets, share assets, cash asset or property assets - or even a mix. What we shoudl be aiming for is an increase in an individuals wealth - but thats not politically paletable even for a National governement. Which is a shame.

There is nothing wrong if it is funded by productive earnings. What is wrong is that it is not - it is funded by ever increasing debt. That is the problem for NZ.

We do not have enough productive earnings in NZ to pay for this ever increasing debt (that is why our current account deficit continues to grow). Essentially the housing market is one large Ponzi scheme - values being driven further and further up by access to credit via overseas banks.

The Great Gold Guru
14-08-2009, 07:47 AM
Property in Wanganui went unconditional yesterday. Will be cashflow positive of $320pm when renovation work is done and is re-let at $150pw each flat, This assumes 100% gearing with interest rate locked at 5.50% for 1 year.

That's one found ... now , where is number 2 ?

minimoke
14-08-2009, 12:16 PM
REINZ data now out shows no fall off in median values (hanging in there at $340,000) - pretty good going in the winter months. More importantly median time on market has dropped down to 37 days - pretty much the lowest rates since the markets "highs" in Nov 2007.

minimoke
14-08-2009, 12:19 PM
Its reported today that floating mortgage interst rates are at the lowest in 40 years. Kiwibank is at 5.79 and BNZ on 6.3%. The last time we had rates around this level was in 1966

newbietrader
14-08-2009, 12:31 PM
Its reported today that floating mortgage interst rates are at the lowest in 40 years. Kiwibank is at 5.79 and BNZ on 6.3%. The last time we had rates around this level was in 1966

would you get into rental property with 10% deposit and knowing the term deposit can go up high from next year to double digits? That includes floating rate up following the term rate.

minimoke
14-08-2009, 12:50 PM
would you get into rental property with 10% deposit and knowing the term deposit can go up high from next year to double digits? That includes floating rate up following the term rate.
Well the Reserve Bank reckon the OCR is set to stay around 2.5% for a while yet so I think it would be a brave person saying interst rates will be in double digits next year.

Buying a rental is of course a personal choice and there are lots of things to think about when making that decision. But if you are worried about interest rates heading to double digits next year you could look at locking in a five year mortgage at 8.3%

fungus pudding
14-08-2009, 12:58 PM
would you get into rental property with 10% deposit and knowing the term deposit can go up high from next year to double digits? That includes floating rate up following the term rate.


The deposit is irrelevant. You should look at the yield, and also the price in relation to the value. IOW if you find a real bargain - who cares about a deposit, and if you pay too much - a 10% deposit isn't enough.:eek:

minimoke
14-08-2009, 01:25 PM
The deposit is irrelevant. You should look at the yield, and also the price in relation to the value. IOW if you find a real bargain - who cares about a deposit, and if you pay too much - a 10% deposit isn't enough.:eek:
I agree you need to look at yield and price/vlaue but the deposit is also relevant.

Say you have $50,000 in cash - you need to work out how you are going to get your best return on that cash. Perhaps its by putting it in as a deposit and reduce your interst expence at a rate of, say 6.5% and consequently increase your gross income from the rental.

Alternativley you could put your money on, say, an NZF Term Deposit at 8.25% with interst paid quartely. Or you might prefer to put it into shares like TEL for a 10.47% dividend yield.

Just because you have cash doesn't mean putting it into a deposit is necessarily the best use of that cash.

fungus pudding
14-08-2009, 01:37 PM
I agree you need to look at yield and price/vlaue but the deposit is also relevant.

Say you have $50,000 in cash - you need to work out how you are going to get your best return on that cash. Perhaps its by putting it in as a deposit and reduce your interst expence at a rate of, say 6.5% and consequently increase your gross income from the rental.

Alternativley you could put your money on, say, an NZF Term Deposit at 8.25% with interst paid quartely. Or you might prefer to put it into shares like TEL for a 10.47% dividend yield.

Just because you have cash doesn't mean putting it into a deposit is necessarily the best use of that cash.

Exactly so, but it's far better to spend time and effort sussing out a bargain than worrying about whether the deposit is 15%,5% or nothing. I've bought properties before and raised mortgages of well over the asking price. (Some to buy the property and some to live on till I found the next bargain:D) I didn't ever lose sleep over the deposit. Mind you that was a long time ago and easy to do then. And I had no choice, cos I had no $$$$$$:D

minimoke
14-08-2009, 02:07 PM
And I had no choice, cos I had no $$$$$$:D
And there we probably venture into the "Negative Gearing" territory whcih is probably a seperate thread!

fungus pudding
14-08-2009, 02:54 PM
And there we probably venture into the "Negative Gearing" territory whcih is probably a seperate thread!

Ah yes, but I've never mortgaged a property to the point where it wouldn't cover its own backside, so to speak. Even though it meant that not all the mortgage was tax deductible, I just pocketed the excess for living expenses. It was a very good way of creating a tax free income. (Don't tell the socialists - they never woke up to it.)

The Great Gold Guru
15-08-2009, 10:15 AM
Will start negotiating with vendor on property 2 next week ... can I fill my 8 properties in 12mth target by Christmas? Lots of stuff on the internet making eyes at me ...

This one will be cashflow positive of $274pm with a 2Yr 6.19% mortgage at 100% gearing if I can get $10k off the current asking price.

upside_umop
17-08-2009, 07:10 PM
There is nothing wrong if it is funded by productive earnings. What is wrong is that it is not - it is funded by ever increasing debt. That is the problem for NZ.

We do not have enough productive earnings in NZ to pay for this ever increasing debt (that is why our current account deficit continues to grow). Essentially the housing market is one large Ponzi scheme - values being driven further and further up by access to credit via overseas banks.

Totally agree.

I dont mean to make this negative, but since MM suggested we dont have anything wrong with savings, i'd beg to differ.

Have a think about why banks have been putting interest rates up over the last wee while. The marginal cost of funding is now coming from overseas, suggesting that we have a shortfall of deposits/savings here in NZ. That shortfall in turn is hurting NZers taking out mortgages! Surely its in home owners best interest to have a decent domestic savings pool?

GGG, does that steep upward sloping yield curve not scare you? Cashflow positive at 6% etc...what about when floating rates rise too?

The Great Gold Guru
06-09-2009, 07:42 PM
Just to keep you up to date on my target of buying 8 properties in the next 12 months. First one is in the bag and paying me $240pm after borrowing 100% of the cost at 5.50% ( fixed for 1Yr )

Property 2 ( 2 flat villa in central Wanganui ) is in contract and hoping to hear finance is OK tomorrow. This one will pay us $325pm after 95% finance again at 5.50% for 12mths. Purchased at $147,500 with a RV of $165,000

Property 3 ... Had offer accepted on 1 bed flat in Brighton Rd, Parnell late on Friday at $291,000. Should rent at $375pw and is exactly cashflow neutral at 100% debt funding. Really funky little 1950's period flat ... 10 min walk to Newmarket , 2 minutes to top of Parnell Rd ... glimpse of the sea ... FREEHOLD !!

LVR on portfolio ( 11 properties in total ) after purchase of 3rd property 100% debt funded will be 68.8% so approaching the current 70% limit for rental properties without paying over the odds for finance. Fresh equity to come from sale of listed shares prior to end of September.

5 to go ...

Watch this space.

AMR
06-09-2009, 08:29 PM
Wow GGG, how are u managing these properties this widespread across NZ?

Dr_Who
07-09-2009, 07:36 AM
Hey GGG what happens if rates go up dramatically after one year?

minimoke
07-09-2009, 01:32 PM
For the fourth month in a row QV reports today a further increase in property values up to $385,426 from $382,758 last month.

mikeo
08-09-2009, 04:06 PM
What people loose sight of is that landlords are up for tax on profits which includes the sale of a property at a value over the purchase price. Its just that IRD aren't good at tracking these missing taxes.

I don't think so. My understanding is that tax on capital gains are taxable only if (one of) the reasons for purchasing the property was to re-sell at a profit. If this wasn't a reason for the original purchase then no capital gains tax is payable (although there would usually be a clawback of any depreciation claimed)

minimoke
08-09-2009, 04:16 PM
My understanding is that tax on capital gains are taxable only if (one of) the reasons for purchasing the property was to re-sell at a profit.
I agree. And if we look at the returns from rentals over the past few years (pre 2007) compared with the rate of capital gain what do you think the real (but undislosed reason) was for the house purchase. The key reason people get into property is for the capital gain. They can't say its for the rental yield when this is so low on so many properties

fungus pudding
08-09-2009, 04:26 PM
I agree. And if we look at the returns from rentals over the past few years (pre 2007) compared with the rate of capital gain what do you think the real (but undislosed reason) was for the house purchase. The key reason people get into property is for the capital gain. They can't say its for the rental yield when this is so low on so many properties

There is no tax on capital gains in NZ. However income tax can be applied to any profit if the sale was deemed to have been made for income - a subtle point, which gets back to the intent of the purchaser at time of purchase.

AMR
08-09-2009, 05:18 PM
So this would imply those people who buy property so negatively geared that it doesn't turn a positive cashflow for years are really chasing capital gains and so should be paying tax on it...

Has the IRD done this before? (Go after the negative gearing crew).

fungus pudding
08-09-2009, 05:43 PM
So this would imply those people who buy property so negatively geared that it doesn't turn a positive cashflow for years are really chasing capital gains and so should be paying tax on it...

Has the IRD done this before? (Go after the negative gearing crew).

They used to send a standard letter to new owners who showed a first year loss, full of silly questions such as ' is the property occupied by a friend or relative' and so on, but didn't often bother doing much about it. Nowdays they seem to concentrate on areas where there is plenty of acivity. Flick over merchanrs are taking a risk by deliberately trading for profit and not declaring profits. IRD have had a real clean up in Queenstown and other hot spots in recent years. Although primarily chasing section resellers, a fair few house buyers have had nasty suprises - and penalties.
I do think this whole area is likely to be more rigidly enforced in nthe future. It's more political than anything else, There are one hell of a lot of these type of buyers who actually lose money, and will be more likely to claim the loss.

minimoke
14-09-2009, 10:59 AM
For the fourth month in a row QV reports today a further increase in property values up to $385,426 from $382,758 last month.
And more good news from REINZ.

August values are up 2% on July sales or from $340,000 to $346,000.

Average values are up from $389,302 to $405,742 and median time on market is the shortest in nearly two years at 34 days.

If we look at the low of Jan 09 this is a 6.7% increase in median value or a rise of 9.0% of average value. Time on market has fallen from 59 days to 34.

minimoke
14-09-2009, 11:08 AM
And more good news from REINZ.

And we shouldn't loose site of Sections.
More sections sold in August (557) than in any time since October 07. A 10% increase in the number of sections sold this month and a 9.4% increase in value.

Value is now $175,000 up from the October 08 low of $165,000

minimoke
18-09-2009, 10:18 AM
Its that time of year when the banks go hunting for those spring buyers.

BNZ now dropped its variable rate down to 5.59% which begs the question: how low will they go?

Ptolemy
18-09-2009, 10:20 AM
People should be asking, how long will they stay there?

fungus pudding
18-09-2009, 10:39 AM
Its that time of year when the banks go hunting for those spring buyers.

BNZ now dropped its variable rate down to 5.59% which begs the question: how low will they go?

It raises the question, but it doesn't beg it. There's a huge difference in meaning.

minimoke
18-09-2009, 10:56 AM
It raises the question, but it doesn't beg it. There's a huge difference in meaning.
Having made the assertion there is an interest rate war with no evidence I thought begging the question was the correct term. I stand corrected.

minimoke
12-10-2009, 12:58 PM
Sorry NeopoleII heres another soundbite from todays news:

Property values continue to recover
Property values have continued to increase according to the QV residential property indices for September released today.



Nationwide values are now 2.7 percent up from their low in April.


A further market measure, distinct from the index, is the average sale price which across New Zealand also increased further to $387,567 in September from $385,426 in August.

loofa
12-10-2009, 08:19 PM
It appears that the influence of more higher priced property is the major influence rather than a general lift.

neopoleII
13-10-2009, 11:42 AM
hey minimoke,
you seem to be in the camp of rising house prices being a good thing, and me in the camp of it being a bad thing.
myself being a landowner, rising prices is always good when assessing personel wealth, but, what about community wealth or state of the nation wealth, or the fact we have to live in a community where the spread of haves and havenots is ever widening?

i see these property investors and speculators driving a wedge between different parts of our society. and the fact that the $200 billion residential investment market generates no taxes for the government.....
if tax laws dont change, or arent administered enough, the gap between rich and poor will increase, and in my view, this leads to animosity and general ill feelings in the community. if its let to continue, thing will only get worse.
obviously there are many factors involved, like absconding fathers, domestic violence, laws protecting crims, ease of benifit fraud etc............ but NZ used to be a place where a hard working man ( of whatever creed, skill or inteligence) could get a home.
now it seems that only working families with skilled labour can afford a home and the rest are left to rent....... to make the skilled families even richer, .... and richer still with the tax advantages to boot.
sooner or later, if the system is left as it is, the house of cards will fall simply because of the ever rising debt level.
the smart ones cash out early......... but then what?
move overseas or live in gated communities in luxuary while the rest crumble with debt.

its very true that alot of people live outside their means and live only for today, and they should go down the gurgler, but the majority of folks out there are genuine and are struggling and the biggest issue for them is the cost of housing whether owning or renting.

gees......... im starting to sound like a labour/socialist campainer!.... but im not, im the opposite, i hate free loaders and whingers and lazybu.ms and the "want it all today", and fully agree that if you work hard and plan ahead you shall be rewarded........ and get to keep it too!

but loading up on negative gearing, claiming tax losses, running lac's and the other many numous systems developed of accountants to generate wealth along with a lax govt is causing this country great pain.
for the amount of people living on this land mass called NZ, we should have cheap housing...........
but we dont.

i cant see wages going higher for the general population any time soon.
upskilling the population will take many years.
i cant tarrifs coming in to protect us from cheap overseas labour.
i cant see NZ debt burden disappering soon either.
the property owners are getting older.
more people are finding it harder to get into a home
more people are finding it harder to keep their home.

house prices will come down, one way or the other.
how and when it happens is what thinking and planning is for.

minimoke
13-10-2009, 12:12 PM
[quote=neopoleII;277114]hey minimoke,
you seem to be in the camp of rising house prices being a good thing, and me in the camp of it being a bad thing./]
I am in the context of investment and personal asset growth

[but, what about community wealth or state of the nation wealth, or the fact we have to live in a community where the spread of haves and havenots is ever widening/]
Now thats a different story and we need to whole set of new threads to cover that off.

[i cant see wages going higher for the general population any time soon.
upskilling the population will take many years.
i cant tarrifs coming in to protect us from cheap overseas labour.
i cant see NZ debt burden disappering soon either.
the property owners are getting older.
more people are finding it harder to get into a home
more people are finding it harder to keep their home/]

- Agree wages aren't going higher until we lift our productivity
- Cheap labour is what the governement wants - look at who is caring for the elderly in droves.
- NZ Debt also unlikely to reduce
- Many people have always found it hard to buy a home - doesn't mean to say they can't make one from a rental
- People finding it harder to keep a home - not so much due to the value of the home but due to the debt that home is expected to carry: holiday home / new cars flat screen telly etc.

House values will never come down. They have always trended upwards and will continue to do so. Not even the sub-prime suceeded in the long term drop in NZ values.

Ptolemy
13-10-2009, 01:28 PM
Neopole, I couldn't agree with you more.

But one thing I have learned from reading these types of sites is you can never convince a NZer in love with property that property will ever go down in price. Property in NZ (and Oz) is special - like no other asset class. Risk free guaranteed gains. It seems that investment fundamentals don't apply to housing because there is never aenough supply to meet the demand (despite no supporting evidence of this).

[QUOTE=minimoke;277121 House values will never come down. They have always trended upwards and will continue to do so. Not even the sub-prime suceeded in the long term drop in NZ values.[/QUOTE]

Ironically MM, it is the very GFC that saved the property market in NZ - property prices in NZ were in fact trending down until the GFC exploded in October 2008. It was then that the RBNZ entered into the most aggressive rate cutting known in NZ history. Interest rates halved in a matter of weeks. Due to relatively tight supply, high employment and a massive dose of liquidity prices were stabilised. The fact that our banks didn't fall over like in Europe and the USA was a huge factor also - the fact property prices didn't drop preciptously was a factor in their stability also.

I don't profess to know which way prices will go, but before I made a bet on prices returning to an upward path I would want to see what they are doing under "normal" interest rate conditions and higher unemployment before I loaded up with debt to buy a few properties. I would also want to see what any gummint tax changes were too (although I have no faith in the gummint to make changes which are good for the economy to the detriment to their own vested housing interests - most of them own properties which they use to rort the entitlements systems.)

minimoke
13-10-2009, 02:18 PM
Ironically MM, it is the very GFC that saved the property market in NZ - property prices in NZ were in fact trending down until the GFC exploded in October 2008.

The GFC began in 2007 and the NZ mood in property changed in Jan 07 (evidenced by Shrwedys timely thread). The doom sayers were saying the sky will fall. In fact prices continued to grow into 2007 reaching a peak around Nov 07. This was around the "30% drop" time but it didn't happen. From Nov 07 to Oct 08 there was about an 5% drop in average. Prices continued to fall to an eventual 9.7% drop in Jan 09.

Property is said to be a long term investment and a few months activity may not be enought to measure the trend. Sure those that bought at the peak in Nov 07 are possibly ruing their "losses". But what about those that bought in Jan 02. Well, in Jan 09 when things were at the gloomiest, they have seen an increase of 78% or added $163K to their personal wealth. If they took the snapshot today they be up 94$ or $197.

I don't see NZ property as being "special" but there are certain things that suggest values will continue to go up where as the evidnce for a fall is slim. Not even the worse financial crisis to hit the planet since the great depression managed to but much of a dint in it.

neopoleII
13-10-2009, 02:19 PM
"""House values will never come down. They have always trended upwards and will continue to do so."""

this statement has been true for a long time, probably all the time.
but, things are changing, namely the way countries like china et al have come onto the scene in a large way and have drastically changed the way of commerce and industry.
here in NZ we are closing our factories at an alarming rate due to cheap overseas labour, so we are left with agri industry...... which is low order skill and pay and service industry which is also low order skill and pay. the rest make a living out of wheeling and dealing. there is only so much forign exchange coming into NZ, and its not enough to go round, so we borrow to make ends meet. and its this borrowing that has catapulted NZ into debt, and that debt was spent on housing.
the wheeling and dealing has dramatically slowed down, as the flow of funds has.
but we are sitting at the top of a mountain.
people dont have the income to support large debt for much longer, and those that do take on large debt are gambling their futures. a house is only worth what someone is willing to pay or is able to afford.
at this stage, the addiction to debt is still strong and therefore are willing to pay high prices........ in the belief that property always goes up.( just because history shows it did) when the reality sets in that the economy is controlled by outside influences, namely credit suppliers and goods suppliers, and that a home buyer is at the mercy of forign nationals, people will start to think about what is affordable and whether they will have employment in the future to be able to afford these prices of today.
all through the western world house prices have soared though speculation and easy credit. the govts of the western world have avoided catastrophy by borrowing from future citizens. the debt has to be paid, and those future citizen who will be forced to pay it are not going to be happy paying top dollar to current home owners and speculators to get accomadation.

there is only one constance, and that is time.
current home owners will get old and want to sell at some stage.
debt multipled by time increases if not paid.
to pay a debt money has to be saved or diverted.
the value of a home is related to what someone will pay for it.
what someone can pay is related to the value of the income.
income is related to how many widgets are made, sold and serviced.
the western world has pushed its self into a corner by narrowing its manufacturing base,
NZ has fallen through the gaps in the floor boards, and survives by hanging onto its debt balloon.
when it pops, land values will drop, tradesmens rates will drop, construction materials will drop, the economy will drop house prices will drop.

how far it will drop depends on the government, but the higher the debt the bigger the fall.

minimoke
13-10-2009, 02:37 PM
how far it will drop depends on the government, but the higher the debt the bigger the fall.
NeoploeII, I started this "Good News" thread as a counter to all the doom gloom storires that were happpening on the other threads. Consequently you'll only get a positive spin from me on this particular thread - and there are other threads that can be used for the misery stories.

The good news is that while we have lost a lot of our local manufactuing factories we have replaced them with call centre factories.

And just to be clear I'm comfortable picking property prices will continue upwards over the longer term - but I'm not suggesting we are about to see another bubble.

Ptolemy
13-10-2009, 03:39 PM
I don't see NZ property as being "special" but there are certain things that suggest values will continue to go up where as the evidnce for a fall is slim. Not even the worse financial crisis to hit the planet since the great depression managed to but much of a dint in it.

Sorry, can't get the hang of this quote thing. Hey, it worked this time.

Hi MM,

Can you provide a list of what those certain things are? What I have seen as the main reason by posters on other blogs is that supply will continue to outstrip demand beacuse of increasing population (immigration etc). I was wondering if there were any other reasons that you think they might keep going up except that is just always has?

I agree that it is remarkable NZ has avoided the property price declines of other Western countries but I believe we both agree on why that is - or at least I think you agree based on your post.

cheers

minimoke
13-10-2009, 04:35 PM
Can you provide a list of what those certain things are?
heres a few:
NZ'ers have an inter-generational love affair with owning property - it is in our blood so a basic yearning to "own" isn't going to be diluted easily. This equals "demand"

The governement (doesn't matter if it is Labour or National) have a desire to see people in their own owned homes. They provide subsidies/incentives like "Welcome Home start" and Kiwisaver = demand.

Govt regulations / spending on things like insulation. That spend will get refelcted in a higher valued home.

The "Accomodation Supplement" will keep cash in the system to keep rents up and prices up.

Population growth = demand

Relatively stable employment / wages / governement / banking = more comfort when borrowing = demand.

Aging stock which needs replacing = demand for better property along the chain. = demand

Stock not meeting demand. If building consents/construction don't keep up with demand = values up.

Where do you park your investment money. Dodgy Finance Companies, Dodgy Wild West NZ stocks, Long term deposits. NZ'ers prefer property = demand.

Aging population: moving from 4 bedroom family homes to two bedroom villas but not wanting to make a "loss" on family home will see values hold. Construction of 2 bedroom villas provides balance to market which shows value of 4 bedroom keeping prices up.

No Capital Gains Tax or Duty on property transaction = easy investment option = demand (and when these do come in the acountants will get creative on ways to avoid paying)

Land - you can't grow more of it (yeah I know - don't comment!) but the resource consent and compliance costs of developing new land will keep new building costs up which need to be reflected in the value.

Nesters will eventually move out of home and want their own and dumb parents will help finance the dream (well they helped finance the lazy kids by keeping them at home) which will see cash keeping flowing in this sector.

NZ$ makes ownership by foreigners attractive ( I can't see the current rates staying high for the long term) = demand

Inflation through trades - people not wanting to get their hands dirty or do "hard labour" (go to universitry to be an accountant or IT specialist) will see less skilled trades = higher wages for those trades = higher values.

Inflation - it will be back.

Gloabal warming / Terrorism / Bird Flu - whatever. NZ looks a pretty attractive place = demand.

Technology / time zones. means northern hemisphere companies can get people to move to NZ and use their brain power locally = demand.

People need a roof over their head - means that they either own or they rent from someone who owns = demand

Now if we get all these things happening at once we can expect a bubble. But it only takes a few of these things to offset any negatives to still see property values increasing over the long term.

Ptolemy
14-10-2009, 01:06 PM
Thanks MM. That is a pretty useful list to chew through.

I could try and refute most of them but won't. Some of them I even agree with.

My main argument against prices going up materially from here has always been affordability (which I know we have discussed on another thread)

On another blog site there has been much debate about property prices. One of the pro property bloggers had a home grown formula which showed that home affordability had reached a level where it was at levels not seen since the late 90s. His formula was based on interest rates, prices, average wages and average wages per households. The average wages per household figure was at 1.6 from memory and had been steadily been rising since the early 80s when it was close to 1. The debate centred around whether prices were causal in the numbers of workers per household rising or because of lifestyle and intergenartional changes. The question I pose is what happens when it gets to 2? Send the kids to work, two families per household etc.

Anyway, only time will tell. I will leave you with one thought. If the average Auckland house doubles in the next 10 years (general RE rule of thumb) and wages only grow by 50% (unlikely to be so high unless the economy really kicks on), the average house price will be approx $1 million and the average wage will be approx $68k. Even with two workers per household there is no way they could raise the deposit let alone the service a mortage at long term average interest rates.

minimoke
14-10-2009, 02:06 PM
Anyway, only time will tell. I will leave you with one thought. If the average Auckland house doubles in the next 10 years (general RE rule of thumb) and wages only grow by 50% (unlikely to be so high unless the economy really kicks on), the average house price will be approx $1 million and the average wage will be approx $68k. Even with two workers per household there is no way they could raise the deposit let alone the service a mortage at long term average interest rates.
My crystal ball gets a bit fuzzy bute heres what I reckon might happen.

Firstly banks will increase the term of the mortgage. Rember it wasn't so many years ago the max term was 25 years. Its now out to 30 as a norm.

Banks products will include "interest Only" - rather than the current and predominant interest principal arrangments.

Banks wil also introduce "Buy back" type schemes. So they claw back the principle on the sale of the property or on your death from the estate.

It is in the banks intersts to see property prices increase becasue this gives them exposure to the lucrative mortgage business. If there is any doubt on the powers banks have you only need to look at the GFC to see how governements are more than happy to prop up this dodgy sector and here in NZ financial institutions (like Kiwisaver) are just handed money hand over fist with no effort at all. Money lending has been around since Moses could grasp a Shekel - I don't see anything changing that except they will just get cleverer at getting the loot to an instatiable demand.

minimoke
14-10-2009, 02:26 PM
And the good news keeps rolling in (Ptolomy and Neopole I appreciate this is only good news for those with investments in property)

REINZ figures out and what do we have.
Median Prices for the month UP 0.9%
Median Prices from January UP 13%

Average Prices for month UP 2.3%
Average Prices from January UP 11.6%

Values now ($350,000) down ONLY 0.57% from Nov 07 "High" ($352,000 - Bernard - what happened to 30%)

Values now up to pretty much historic high levels.

No. of properties Sold UP
Days on market DOWN

No of sections sold UP (highest level in 21 months)
Average price per section UP

George
14-10-2009, 03:06 PM
None of this applies to our area out West Ak, but as QV say,
some areas are stagnant. Just as well we don't have to sell.
Not one person to the 2 open homes next door again and Sunday
was a beaut day.

minimoke
14-10-2009, 03:14 PM
None of this applies to our area out West Ak, but as QV say,
some areas are stagnant. Just as well we don't have to sell.
Not one person to the 2 open homes next door again and Sunday
was a beaut day.
Strange?? Henderson (for example) is up from January.
jan = $355k, Sept = $360. No of props sold - Jan = 75 Sept = 197. Days on market. Jan = 57, Sept = 27

There simply isn't enough data for the Waitakeres but if you want good news Median has moved from $470k to $557k in the past month. A couple of sales a month suggests there just isn't the demand for people to go out there. I don't know this area, but based on sales people either don't want to be there or they dont want to sell.

I'm a happy camper because my area has lifted 24% since January (average up 15%) with sales numbers doubling and time on market down to 26 days from 68 days.

minimoke
14-10-2009, 04:25 PM
On another blog site there has been much debate about property prices. One of the pro property bloggers had a home grown formula which showed that home affordability had reached a level where it was at levels not seen since the late 90s. His formula was based on interest rates, prices, average wages and average wages per households. The average wages per household figure was at 1.6 from memory and had been steadily been rising since the early 80s when it was close to 1. The debate centred around whether prices were causal in the numbers of workers per household rising or because of lifestyle and intergenartional changes. The question I pose is what happens when it gets to 2? Send the kids to work, two families per household etc.

I've no idea what that foumula is or how valid and reliable it is. The question I'd be asking though is did he build in Working For Families "income" into his net income figures. Looking at "wages" doesn't tell teh whole picture on income.

If someone has WFF then this could just about pay the mortgage on its own without any other income. Take a family with 3 kids and an income of $50,000. Thats $215 a week WFF. Which means the Tax Payer is going to give your person the ability to fund a $165,000 loan. Heres a 3 bedroom house in Manukau for $175,000. http://www.trademe.co.nz/Trade-me-property/Residential-property/Houses-for-sale/auction-241357122.htm Negotiate hard and you might get it for $165 - all on WFF! Thats affordable and thats good news!

beacon
14-10-2009, 08:30 PM
heres a few:
NZ'ers have an inter-generational love affair with owning property - it is in our blood so a basic yearning to "own" isn't going to be diluted easily. This equals "demand"

...

Now if we get all these things happening at once we can expect a bubble. But it only takes a few of these things to offset any negatives to still see property values increasing over the long term.

Thoughtful argument. Ditto that

minimoke
04-11-2009, 12:47 PM
In todays news from Barfoot and Thompson:
"
A massive 5.8 percent surge in average house prices in the past month has sent Auckland house prices to a 22-month high.



Rental prices also shot up - by the biggest monthly amount in seven years.
Real estate firm Barfoot & Thompson, which lays claim to selling around one in three homes in the country's largest city, said today the prices achieved in the Auckland market in October were "exceptional".


"We have not seen average prices comparable to this since December 2007," managing director Peter Thompson said.


According to the firm's figures the average sales price across the Auckland region in October was $544,745.


The new figures are further confirmation that the housing market is bouncing back extremely quickly from its slump last year.


Buyers are being encouraged by low floating mortgage rates, while the big downturn in the construction industry that started in 2007 is leading to a shortage of new homes. Strong population gains through migration are also contributing to upward pressure on house values."

evilroyrule
04-11-2009, 01:07 PM
[QUOTE=belgarion;277405]That sucks! Why are high incomer earners with just one child (or no children) being so roundly descriminated against.

lakedaemonian
06-11-2009, 09:40 AM
That sucks! Why are high incomer earners with just one child (or no children) being so roundly descriminated against.

Who exactly is Working for Families? ... It appears that I am and it sucks!

I was never a supporter of WFF, and not just becuuse my family and I do not qualify and pull out weight funding it.

It just feels like recycling tax dollars through a high friction meatgrinder.

Surely it would be more efficient to adjust the tax rates to accomplish the same/similiar with fewer minions employed to do so, via PAYE?

Having said that, I think an intelligent immigration system combined with intelligent support for productive folks who want children should be used to help "shape" our national demographics for the long-term to try and avoid or mitigate the demographic "wall" the likes of Japan will be hitting at 100KPH.

While I would prefer to pay less tax than more tax.......I don't mind paying more(which we surely will be in the future) if it's well spent...but then we will have 4+ million opinions on the definition of well spent.......I think WFF fails to qualify myself.

Stranger_Danger
08-11-2009, 02:50 PM
If someone has WFF then this could just about pay the mortgage on its own without any other income. Take a family with 3 kids and an income of $50,000. Thats $215 a week WFF. Which means the Tax Payer is going to give your person the ability to fund a $165,000 loan. Heres a 3 bedroom house in Manukau for $175,000. http://www.trademe.co.nz/Trade-me-property/Residential-property/Houses-for-sale/auction-241357122.htm Negotiate hard and you might get it for $165 - all on WFF! Thats affordable and thats good news!

The realisation that we're two clicks from communism strikes you as good news?

minimoke
09-11-2009, 06:48 AM
The realisation that we're two clicks from communism strikes you as good news?
This is a good news about property thread. More than happy to enter into a discussion on communism on another thread but you'll see from the tone of my posts my views on that subject.

loofa
12-11-2009, 11:49 AM
mm,
We all like "Good News"
It really does not matter which way prices go.
If UP it will be good for you and some others.
If DOWN it will be good for some of those who are currently waiting to get on their own ladder.
So roll on the Good News!
Gummint steps, if done and if enterprising enough will trend us all to more STABILITY and that is what we all need in the end.
Frankly, I do not care if my house is worth $700k or $1m. I still am going to live in it.

minimoke
12-11-2009, 12:02 PM
Frankly, I do not care if my house is worth $700k or $1m. I still am going to live in it.I care - thats another $300k of capital that can be used as security to borrow for other entrprising projects.

loofa
12-11-2009, 01:49 PM
I care - thats another $300k of capital that can be used as security to borrow for other entrprising projects.

Different strokes for different folks.
I don't even have a mortgage BUT for my borrowing needs (if any) would always be available.
Good news is not having any borrowings and knowing that I can.
Bad news is that I am subsidising excesses of the system unless I keep my surpluses out of the way.
Yes I do have other projects but not in property.
I know this thread is a subtitle of the Property thread so I would not go into any discussion about other options. I would just comment that the good news is only relative.
Best of luck to all who are here.
Make your own luck.:)

minimoke
16-11-2009, 09:48 AM
REINZ Oct 09 values are out and the median is now at $355,000, $3,000 more than the high everyone refers to in Nov 07. Up 1.4% for the month on reduced sales volume. Up 9.2% since January. Days on market the lowest since July 07.

minimoke
16-11-2009, 12:18 PM
Good counter argument here: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10609575

Not really - the only people talking about a "Mini-boom" are real estate firm First Nartional in a clear attempt to get some publicity. There is no Mini boom just a nice and steady increase in values. But more importantly the 30% drop "expert" commentators were predicting never happened and values are recovering for those few people who purchased right at the peak of an over blown boom in Nov 07

POSSUM THE CAT
16-11-2009, 12:36 PM
Minimoke They are only using Figures from sales not properties on the market and the lower the volume the more skewed the median or even the average price can be .

minimoke
16-11-2009, 01:26 PM
Minimoke They are only using Figures from sales not properties on the market and the lower the volume the more skewed the median or even the average price can be .
Values on anytihing is typically taken from sales - and its probably no different from the share market. The market places a value on a company and this value is the price paid for its shares which then converts to the market capitilsation. You don't hear of people valuing a company by the number or size of Bids / Asks. The number and size of Bids / Asks may help determine the future value - but not the current value. And property is pretty much the same.

It may be a shortage of properties skews the market - but the median / average prices will be adjusted in the future when the shortage changes. We can hypothesise on how the median may be skewed but we'd end up in a subjective discussion around where the shortages are (eg shortages of $200,000 properties or shortages of $1m properties) or perhaps where those shortages are - Is it Auckland short or is there a national shortage. We could speculate that there was a glut in Nov 07 or maybe there wasn't. All usefull discussion but they don't value the market at a point in time.

minimoke
15-12-2009, 10:27 AM
REINZ Oct 09 values are out and the median is now at $355,000, $3,000 more than the high everyone refers to in Nov 07. Up 1.4% for the month on reduced sales volume. Up 9.2% since January. Days on market the lowest since July 07.
I supose we shouldn't let November go by without comment. No surprise to see avergage sale price up $11,200 from last month and $51,700 from January.

Looks like all the "Bad News" has been flushed out so probably time to close this thread down. Lets look to update on Shrewdys thread next month to see if he made the right call.

neopoleII
15-12-2009, 11:09 AM
with the 10's of millions, if not 100's of millions of dollars dished out by the government every week in benifits, housing supliments and working for families....... no wonder there hasnt been a property crash.

in the meantime the government is borrowing 250 million a week to support the residential housing sector............
sooner or later, the bubble has to pop.

beacon
17-12-2009, 05:57 PM
And the country will pop with it. we've just begun to witness the aftermath of the destruction of US property values. Like dominoes they fell, and yet we are none the wiser. Like lemmings (or sheep) we just know to follow. When will we wake up and start thinking for ourselves? I'm beginning to agree with Col. John P. Stapp who said :The universal aptitude for ineptitude makes any human accomplishment an incredible miracle

Bollard was holding the dogs at bay, yet he looks like wavering to give in too. When you bust property as a store of value and the capital markets are a shambles, what alternative to store value do you offer to Mrs and Mr. Ordinary. Discipline the banks I say, make them lend. Inflation is a cheap cost to pay in the interim. And give some teeth to our capital market enforcers...

neopoleII
17-12-2009, 06:58 PM
whats that saying?.........
its hard to teach an old dog new tricks.

but if it really hurts........ they learn.
look at the all the finance co's that have collapsed...... i think alot of them have learnt........
most of that cash went into property speculation....... so that source of cash is gone.
the banks have also had a feel of heat as well.
the politicians have had a big scare........
the reserve bank is making public recomendation!!!!
and this country is still massively indebted.....
add it up, a change is on the way.
the discussions regarding residential property investment is in the public forums, ie, tv, newspapers, internet, goverment working groups, rbnz, etc is a clear signal and warning that change is coming.

POSSUM THE CAT
17-12-2009, 07:00 PM
Beacon He is to gutless to stop the housing bubble the sooner he makes 20% deposits compulsory & gets the banks paying higher interest to depositors to encourage saving the better. Most savers would like 6% plus deposit rates from banks & 205 reduction in house prices.

Dr_Who
27-12-2009, 04:07 PM
This is the same guy that called the property market to crash 30-40% during the financial crisis and now he is warning there maybe another crash coming... LOL. What a laugh!


Bernard Hickey: Caution on a housing 'boom'

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10617532

Steve
28-12-2009, 08:22 AM
This is the same guy that called the property market to crash 30-40% during the financial crisis and now he is warning there maybe another crash coming... LOL. What a laugh!


Bernard Hickey: Caution on a housing 'boom'

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10617532

I thought it was the guy Keirin Trass who was suggesting a 30% drop?

AMR
28-12-2009, 09:05 AM
No Bernard was talking about the Westpac reports regarding the effects of a land tax and ringfencing.

minimoke
16-04-2010, 10:39 AM
Lets face, some are still a bit gloomy around housing lately. We've had leaky homes, govt ideas on taxing landlords, increase in mortgagee sales, debt collectors chasing unpaid dues. Who woudl want to get into property.

Strange as it may seem NZ'ers love affair contiues unabated. March 2010 sales created new records. Highest equal median at $360,000. Highest ever average at $429,000. Days on market down to 35 - thats less than the 36 days at the nov 07 "peak"

fungus pudding
19-04-2010, 02:25 PM
Lets face, some are still a bit gloomy around housing lately. We've had leaky homes, govt ideas on taxing landlords, increase in mortgagee sales, debt collectors chasing unpaid dues. Who woudl want to get into property.

Strange as it may seem NZ'ers love affair contiues unabated. March 2010 sales created new records. Highest equal median at $360,000. Highest ever average at $429,000. Days on market down to 35 - thats less than the 36 days at the nov 07 "peak"

Days on market is meaningless as it takes no account of anything that's been on the market for a lengthy period and still unsold. Lkewise median price rise is simply a reflection of banks tougher lending policies to first home buyers or low equity buyers. The cheapies simply are not selling - hence the median rises. Many houses have dropped in value over the last year in spite of published statistics. Still a fair way to go though.

duncan macgregor
20-04-2010, 09:29 AM
Days on market is meaningless as it takes no account of anything that's been on the market for a lengthy period and still unsold. Lkewise median price rise is simply a reflection of banks tougher lending policies to first home buyers or low equity buyers. The cheapies simply are not selling - hence the median rises. Many houses have dropped in value over the last year in spite of published statistics. Still a fair way to go though. Houses have not dropped in value accross the board infact the value of the average house keeps going up. Perceived value in market fluctuations against real value, are two different things. The cost of replacement value is what real value is all about not panic market driven value which fluctuates for little good reason. The average person that invests in property in a conservative manner at any stage in the cycle always makes a killing. You cant say that about the sharemarket or the dodgy saving schemes where the swill at the trough dodgy brigade pray on the vulnerable. The price of property will double in the next ten years, has it has always done, regardless of what todays market is doing. Macdunk

STRAT
21-04-2010, 09:22 AM
Days on market is meaningless as it takes no account of anything that's been on the market for a lengthy period and still unsold. Lkewise median price rise is simply a reflection of banks tougher lending policies to first home buyers or low equity buyers. The cheapies simply are not selling - hence the median rises. Many houses have dropped in value over the last year in spite of published statistics. Still a fair way to go though.All good points Fungus. Thats why I tend to rely on local sale prices as a first estimate on where the value of my properties lay.While rises have been insignificant/moderate in the area that interest me. They havent fallen. Of course this will vary from area to area but overall I reckon Duncan is on the money.

How you been Macca. Youve been keeping a very low profile. I assume the fish are still biting

Arbitrage
21-04-2010, 11:12 AM
Here are some anecdotes from my various sources which reflect the state of the market:
1. The chippy doing some work for me says the building suppliers (eg Carters etc) are quiet.
2. Houses/units under $450k (in Auckland) are either selling slowly or not at all
3. Villas in Auckland's fringe ( ie Ponsonby, Mt Eden etc. usually with valuations in excess of $600k) are selling quickly at or above 2007 valuations.

loofa
21-04-2010, 01:41 PM
The price of property will double in the next ten years, has it has always done, regardless of what todays market is doing. Macdunk
So that means incomes will double to pay for the rents and mortgages. Hurrah!
Either that or house price v income will rise beyond the present 6x
Property rates will go up by three or more times to match their recent history of beating inflation by a few percent each year.
Landlords may even forsake their BMWs for private helicopters too.

minimoke
21-04-2010, 08:56 PM
Here are some anecdotes from my various sources which reflect the state of the market:
1. The chippy doing some work for me says the building suppliers (eg Carters etc) are quiet.
2. Houses/units under $450k (in Auckland) are either selling slowly or not at all
3. Villas in Auckland's fringe ( ie Ponsonby, Mt Eden etc. usually with valuations in excess of $600k) are selling quickly at or above 2007 valuations.
OK some local anecdotes. My local carters are busy - not really busy but busy enough.
House just down the road door sold in 35 minutes (OK an exageration but less than 24 hours)(another one sold after four months and another is still on the market after six months - but lets not dwell on those since this is thee good news thread)
Looking for a building quote four weeks ago (around $200k of work) four tenders sent out - only one responce and thats not with a quote. Where are the builders?

stanace
21-04-2010, 10:02 PM
Where are the builders? Fixing leaky homes, thats where!

Kees
22-04-2010, 01:40 AM
or in australia building houses for 680 au per sq/m just spend 5 weeks in one and it was well build did not leak great value for money so when they come back if they do they might have learned a thing or two
and are able to build a decent home for a realistic price and if we can send the council twits over there to work or better still fire them and get back to reality our kids might be able to stay here and afford to live.

George
22-04-2010, 05:46 AM
Or maybe setting themselves up as 'inspectors' at over $100 an hour but if they can't find access under house just tick that box with no feedback to customer and months later they find entire timber perimeter foundation rotted with house sagging into the bearers, as my sister found out to the cost of $12,000. I started this on another thread but still no decision from the tribunal (notice no builders replied to it, maybe they all follow the same 'procedure'). He was conveniently out of town and his side was heard via phone link for 2 hours while sis sits there with judge. She couldn't take support person as they told her at last moment that that had to be put in writing. Will relay decision when it arrives.

duncan macgregor
23-04-2010, 11:55 AM
Where are the builders? Fixing leaky homes, thats where! I never built a leaky home ever. Refused to do so even ridiculed by building inspectors as a silly old bastard that should move with the times. Its not the builders fault who got talked into building spanish type crap, on wooden frames which is the ultimate sin. Timber must breathe and stay dry. Create a thermos wall where the air pressure cant equalize and it will suck water even uphill. No builder can build to stop that happening. Blame the stupid bastards that insisted we do it, or be like me who warned all and sundry before it happened and face the ridicule. Today the rules make it so expensive with over the top regulations by the same silly buggers that landed you lot in this mess that the young people are forced to live in garages. Any self respecting builder would leave the country and work in Australia where they still build good quality cheap homes that are affordable. Macdunk

miner
23-04-2010, 12:39 PM
The way we used to build if done right was fine and still would be,the problem started on paper when some idiot drew up a no eves flat roof internal gutter stucco piece of sh*t(um it rains in new zealand) and then another idiot in council passed the plans.

All the houses I or mates built the old way have never leaked a drop,know an older builder who turned down a job when he looked at the plans as could see would leak like a flax kit,owners didn't like it got another builder and sure enough it leaked,cost nearly the same to fix leaks as it did to build it.

The same idiots that past the plans have now dreamed up all the mental sh*t you have to do now,when all they had to do was go back to how we used to do it,but that would be way to easy.

Not in the game anymore but mate who is was saying that if you don't want to use the **** brittle spec 4by2 stud timber and say want to use H3 it has to be 4by3,how they work that one out I will never know,there are now lots of things they are shaking there heads at.

Cheers
Miner

Arbitrage
10-05-2010, 02:31 PM
Good news story: Just got tenants for a two bedroom apartment in fringe of central auckland. 800 hits on trademe in a week. Rent up 5%
Heard of another one bedder having 50 people queued up on the weekend for a rental open home.
However, talking to an agent this morning landlords advertising high cost rentals are struggling to lease them.

fungus pudding
10-05-2010, 02:56 PM
Good news story: Just got tenants for a two bedroom apartment in fringe of central auckland. 800 hits on trademe in a week. Rent up 5%
Heard of another one bedder having 50 people queued up on the weekend for a rental open home.
However, talking to an agent this morning landlords advertising high cost rentals are struggling to lease them.

So why is that particularly good news? How long have you owned the property? What is the rent, and what was the cost price? What unbudgeted expenses have there been? In other words - how much profit are you making? I've heard residential landlords claiming 'good news' before because they have managed to increase the rent, but it often means they are simply losing less than they were. Enlighten me.

neopoleII
10-05-2010, 05:39 PM
somehow i cant see NZ property prices staying high....... even with the massive amount of social welfare money propping it up via WFF and housing suppliments etc....... to the tune of $250 mill in govt borrowing per week.
this paragraph.......
"Spain's economic problems are illustrated by developers being left with vast numbers of unsold properties, and tens of thousands of construction workers being unemployed." ..... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=10643895
is a sign, along with Greece's problems affecting the massive debt burden Europe still has.
and most of it is tied to the massive property speculation bubble that it experienced.
sooner or later the NZ govt will have to face the facts, as also those involved in property.
it wont be a steep drop like some media folk have commented, but it will be a long downward slide....... or wages will have a long upward climb.
house prices compared to wages, NZ is very very expensive......... will we go the same way as Europe?
or will kiwis keep on borrowing beyond their means until they crumble under their debt burden.
then we have the how many billion dollar leaky home fiasco to get though as well.

Arbitrage
10-05-2010, 07:25 PM
So why is that particularly good news? How long have you owned the property? What is the rent, and what was the cost price? What unbudgeted expenses have there been? In other words - how much profit are you making? I've heard residential landlords claiming 'good news' before because they have managed to increase the rent, but it often means they are simply losing less than they were. Enlighten me.

Property purchased a little over ten years ago with no deposit but secured against other self managed investment properties. Its valuation has doubed over that period. Rent has also doubled in that time and it is cashflow positive. Part of a long term property investment portfolio where capital profits will not be realised for another 10 years, meanwhile it will continue to pay for itself, with a little left over.

fungus pudding
10-05-2010, 07:44 PM
Property purchased a little over ten years ago with no deposit but secured against other self managed investment properties. Its valuation has doubed over that period. Rent has also doubled in that time and it is cashflow positive. Part of a long term property investment portfolio where capital profits will not be realised for another 10 years, meanwhile it will continue to pay for itself, with a little left over.

So with the rent doubled it's now showing a small profit, which means that for much of that ten years it would have shown a loss. What are accumulated losses over that ten year period, and how much deferred maintenance is there? Just trying to compare the real returns in Auckland compared to the Sth. Island.

duncan macgregor
11-05-2010, 07:23 AM
So why is that particularly good news? How long have you owned the property? What is the rent, and what was the cost price? What unbudgeted expenses have there been? In other words - how much profit are you making? I've heard residential landlords claiming 'good news' before because they have managed to increase the rent, but it often means they are simply losing less than they were. Enlighten me. Fungas my old mate the price of the property increases at a higher percentage level than the loan cost. What does it matter its time owned you should ask about. The people who cant work that out are the losers. Macdunk

fungus pudding
11-05-2010, 07:36 AM
Fungas my old mate the price of the property increases at a higher percentage level than the loan cost.

There's no golden rule that says so. Don't worry - I've owned far more residential stuff than anyone should want to, and did very very nicely, and certainly hope others do too. But at the moment prices are so far out of whack that nothing I can see makes it all stack up, which points to more than a decade of flat or even falling prices. And once again, no mention of the biggest cost - maintenance, or repairs and refurbishment.

Arbitrage
11-05-2010, 12:52 PM
I am not sure why you are so focussed on maintenance costs. The properties I invest in are "brick and tile" ie usually bomb proof. Like Duncan (I presume), I do most of the repairs myself. This year maintenance has cost $46.27 which includes a new shower curtain and a bit of deck timber to patch. Occasionally there are higher costs like a hot water cylinder but the (soon to be stopped??) depreciation usually covers these.

fungus pudding
11-05-2010, 01:44 PM
I am not sure why you are so focussed on maintenance costs. The properties I invest in are "brick and tile" ie usually bomb proof. Like Duncan (I presume), I do most of the repairs myself. This year maintenance has cost $46.27 which includes a new shower curtain and a bit of deck timber to patch. Occasionally there are higher costs like a hot water cylinder but the (soon to be stopped??) depreciation usually covers these.

How long does a carpet last? A kitchen? Bathroom? General decor, e.g curtains, paint and paper - fencing? The maintenance over a rreasonable period of ownership adds up, or the place becomes quite run down. Plumbing and electrical work are expensive, and work you do yourself is worth money - at least half your normal hourly wage. No dwelling is bomb proof and a damn sight less so when occupied by tenants.

The GrandMaster
11-05-2010, 03:16 PM
+ How much do you value your own time?

fungus pudding
11-05-2010, 05:15 PM
+ How much do you value your own time?

I'm not sure who you are addressing that question to, but most res. landlords don't value their time at all.

Arbitrage
12-05-2010, 02:37 PM
I do through an opportunity cost approach. Either stay at home and do the crossword or nip round to the renter and paint the lounge.

fungus pudding
12-05-2010, 02:41 PM
I do through an opportunity cost approach. Either stay at home and do the crossword or nip round to the renter and paint the lounge.

So how much could you earn as a casual painter or similar hanyman work, to put the opportunity into dollar terms?

beacon
13-05-2010, 09:44 AM
I'm not sure who you are addressing that question to, but most res. landlords don't value their time at all.

Second that fungus

Dr_Who
21-05-2010, 11:32 AM
If the global equities market continues its downtrend, it will have an impact on the property market.

upside_umop
22-05-2010, 11:20 AM
Thats a very general statement doctor. You should elaborate more...dont want people thinking your god now do we?

I agree, asset correlations turn towards one during a crisis (if this turns out to be full blown credit crisis again). I do think the property market will be more affected by the budget, compared to whats happening in the money markets right now.

Dr_Who
24-05-2010, 12:49 PM
UU... From experience of having been through a number of market corrections and crashes, I can tell you the NZ property is not immune to overseas market weaknesses. NZ being a grain of rice on the world stage and reliant on foreign capital and investments is very much controlled by overseas events. When the world coughs we get the cold. I am not saying the NZ property will come down. What I am saying is that IF the global market continues to fall with Aust and China tightening, there will be weakness in the NZ property market.

beacon
01-06-2010, 10:08 AM
And yet BNZ wants OCR hiked. Intentions will be intentions, sometimes forever postponed. NZ economy is small and easily impacted by offshore events. Further, Budget 10 and Banks' credit criterion seem to have already done enough of Bollard's work. Hope Bollard sees through these vociforous yet stupid demands for hiking OCR, and acts more sensibly than Glen...

GTM 3442
06-06-2010, 07:32 AM
The banks would like to see a rise in the OCR because it will give them an opportunity to raise rates.

Both lending and deposit rates will rise as a result, but the dollar value of the banks sppread will increase.

This will look good on the books come the reporting season.

Performance-based bonuses will be bigger.

The GrandMaster
06-06-2010, 12:31 PM
The banks would like to see a rise in the OCR because it will give them an opportunity to raise rates.

Both lending and deposit rates will rise as a result, but the dollar value of the banks sppread will increase.

This will look good on the books come the reporting season.

Performance-based bonuses will be bigger.

See as Deposit rates are already significantly above the cash rate, I can't see them rising much.

beacon
11-06-2010, 03:19 PM
Australia is beginning to watch the shylocks.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3802557/Australian-banks-bite-back

minimoke
15-06-2010, 10:48 AM
Average house prices are maintaining their all time high values. Average value in May 2010 is at $422k - the third highest ever and still above the peaks achieved in Nov 2007. Average value is higher than the May 09 values which were $396k. Less properties sold this May compared with last - not sure if that is good news given the worries residential property investors were having with the May 2010 Budget.

Ptolemy
15-06-2010, 12:36 PM
Average house prices are maintaining their all time high values. Average value in May 2010 is at $422k - the third highest ever and still above the peaks achieved in Nov 2007. Average value is higher than the May 09 values which were $396k. Less properties sold this May compared with last - not sure if that is good news given the worries residential property investors were having with the May 2010 Budget.

Hmm, seems you read a different report than me

The median residential property price eased back to $350,000 in May from $356,000 in April and down 2.7% from March peak.

It seems to me the market has topped and is in decline. Inventory up, days to sell up, asking prices down. Interest rate tightening. Six months before we can really tell which way the market is going but signs aren't great IMO.

fungus pudding
15-06-2010, 03:45 PM
Hmm, seems you read a different report than me

The median residential property price eased back to $350,000 in May from $356,000 in April and down 2.7% from March peak.

It seems to me the market has topped and is in decline. Inventory up, days to sell up, asking prices down. Interest rate tightening. Six months before we can really tell which way the market is going but signs aren't great IMO.

Forget the days to sell, and look at the properties entering the market that simply are not selling. In
Dunedin there are dozens of houses that have been on the market for three months or more, but reported 'days on market' hasn't changed much at all. They only consider those that sell - not those that are listed.

minimoke
16-06-2010, 08:40 AM
Forget the days to sell, and look at the properties entering the market that simply are not selling.
Locally we get the Realtor, Harcourt Blue Book, some other publication whose name escapes me and of course the newspaper. None of these publications have anywhere the number of listings there were like back in November 07.

Must check out TradeMe stats - though they were still relatively new as a marketing medium back in 07 so not quite a reliable data source.

patsy
07-07-2010, 04:12 PM
Interesting article on Vancouver's drop in property sales (just like in NZ). And the "Housing Collapse Cascade Pattern" is even better - it smells of NZ all over:

http://tinyurl.com/2gylt6h

patsy
12-07-2010, 10:19 AM
Not really a "good news story" - Australia the most overvalued property market; NZ sits at number seven. The only way is down.

http://www.economist.com/node/16542826?story_id=16542826

minimoke
14-07-2010, 12:06 PM
A little surprisingly REINZ data out for June shows Median prices up in June to $352k - just a tad off the all time recent highs and up $12k on this time last year. And bang on the high achieved in Nov '07

fungus pudding
14-07-2010, 12:13 PM
A little surprisingly REINZ data out for June shows Median prices up in June to $352k - just a tad off the all time recent highs and up $12k on this time last year. And bang on the high achieved in Nov '07

That's not suprising at all. Lending is tighter; the bottom end of the market is hardly moving, so naturally the average and the median rise. But has value risen or fallen?

winner69
14-07-2010, 03:40 PM
Interesting article on Vancouver's drop in property sales (just like in NZ). And the "Housing Collapse Cascade Pattern" is even better - it smells of NZ all over:

http://tinyurl.com/2gylt6h

That was an interesting article .... and you can see where NZ is on the path

had to laugh today as house sales data cme out .... amount of sales tumbling but heck it looks like 'successful vendors are being realistic in assessing the market value of their home,"

Dr_Who
15-07-2010, 01:44 PM
On a lighter note, you can always tell where the property market is by weighing the realty sales booklet. The thicker and heavier the book the weaker the property prices.

fungus pudding
15-07-2010, 03:00 PM
On a lighter note, you can always tell where the property market is by weighing the realty sales booklet. The thicker and heavier the book the weaker the property prices.

The really interesting data - which is never published - is the number of properties listed each month instead of just the the number sold. That tells you the current state of the market, but more importantly gives a great indication of the future.

George
19-07-2010, 06:46 AM
That's not suprising at all. Lending is tighter; the bottom end of the market is hardly moving, so naturally the average and the median rise. But has value risen or fallen?

Article from Aus - perhaps hope for bottom end of kiwi property market if there is any truth in the saying that we follow Aus by 6-12 months. (Could you relate the likes of South and West Auckland to Footscray and Frankston?)
http://www.smh.com.au/business/market-moves-confirm-rises-20100718-10g05.html

miner
31-08-2010, 11:13 PM
???????????????

minimoke
02-09-2010, 08:09 AM
Wow - two good news stories in one day!.

Some optimists reckon the $1.6b South Canterbury Finance money will flow into the property market. Effects are banks will have more money to lend which will keep lending costs down. More money to lend will equal a more relaxed lending criteria. This all equals more demand and as we know demand leads to price increases.

Also apparently th number of new listings has dropped back prompting suggesting we are moving into a sellers market - which again will lead to price increases.

miner
02-09-2010, 09:46 AM
Some have gold fever some have property fever,SCF had it that bad it died from it along with the other 62.

fungus pudding
02-09-2010, 09:54 AM
Wow - two good news stories in one day!.

Some optimists reckon the $1.6b South Canterbury Finance money will flow into the property market. Effects are banks will have more money to lend which will keep lending costs down. More money to lend will equal a more relaxed lending criteria. This all equals more demand and as we know demand leads to price increases.

Also apparently th number of new listings has dropped back prompting suggesting we are moving into a sellers market - which again will lead to price increases.

I think I'd call them predictions rather than stories. The unsold inventory is far higher than normal, which always slows down new listers, and there is really no reason for money to go chasing real estate for a good while yet. Residential prop. is still overpriced by world standards and won't react to a bit of money floating around. That is not necessarily the case with selected commercial or industrial R.E. :(

Ptolemy
06-09-2010, 03:06 PM
The early signs from Barfoot and Thompson for August in the Auckland market is that August will be another poor month with prices down 4% from a year ago and 4% from July and volumes down 23% from a year ago. Inventories continue to climb.

I think it might be wishful thinking to say money from the SCF collapse will flow into property - although it may via the banks. The banks are likely to be the receipients of the repaid cash IMO.