Bottom or bear rally?

[STRAT]

Im pickin bear rally. Would love to hear what the rest of you guys and gals think.Its been a good month for many so far but I just cant see it lasting. None of the real problems have gone away.Obama speeches and dubious reporting cant keep it up for long IMO.Nice to be making hay though :D

[mark100]

I pick bear rally but even if it drops back I reckon it may bounce around at the previous low before forming a bottom. I don't expect we will fall significantly below the previous lows. But then again, I didn't expect the All Ords to fall below 4000 either.

Also worth pondering, the more people that think its a bear rally, the more likely it isn't!

[STRAT]

Also worth pondering, the more people that think its a bear rally, the more likely it isn't!

Hi Mark. Good point. Also worth considering is whether ST members are a good cross section of the community who are wondering about it.

[trackers]

Yeah, good call Strat I've been thinking similar things.

I notice there's been a pickup of 'good news' but I don't think the worlds out of the crap yet.

The key question for me is whats going to happen to POO in 2009.... Really just have no idea

[STRAT]

Hi Trackers, Have a look at this. Im picken oil will do something soon lol :D

[bermuda]

Hi Trackers, Have a look at this. Im picken oil will do something soon lol :D

It is a BEAR rally. And it will be interesting to see how the commentators react.

[Dr_Who]

I tend to agree.

Dead cat bounce.

IMF picks a deep recession. Global unemployment to hit 10% this year. The ques is when does one start selling into this bounce?

[STRAT]

I tend to agree.

Dead cat bounce.

IMF picks a deep recession. Global unemployment to hit 10% this year. The ques is when does one start selling into this bounce?

Another wee pic to ponder over :D

[Dr_Who]

Hey strat mate, I have no idea how to read those graphs. All the lines makes it look like a bowl of noodle soup.

Do you have one for the dow?

[STRAT]

Hey strat mate, I have no idea how to read those graphs. All the lines makes it look like a bowl of noodle soup.

Do you have one for the dow?

Just think of it as art or just look at the blue line and ingnore all my amature ****.:DWhy do you want one for the DOW if you cant read em. Had to ask :D

[STRAT]

What time frame Doc?

[STRAT]

The title of the thread is about a bear bottom rally?

Could be conceived as smut ;)

A special Chart for you Yankiwi :D

[Hoop]

The bottom been reached ..bull market cycle starting

[Xerof]

I think the day C announced they were again making money, quickly followed by BofA saying the same thing, may well prove to be a defining moment......


From small acorns do tall oaks grow....or words to that effect

[dumbass]

my feeling is a significant bottom is in place for the first wave of a three wave bear market.
the second wave (b wave) will retrace by possibly 50 % before the third wave moves the market back down.
This is how the time component of a decline works. the market can not just keep going down but it is years away from a new bull market , so.........
down , up , down .
we are now entering the up bit , will be swift ride to dow 10000 + then back down to 6500 or lower

[Dr_Who]

so.........
down , up , down .
we are now entering the up bit , will be swift ride to dow 10000 + then back down to 6500 or lower

Abit like sex, everyone loves the ride. :D

and no... Yankiwi, you are still a virgin. ;)

[STRAT]

my feeling is a significant bottom is in place for the first wave of a three wave bear market.
the second wave (b wave) will retrace by possibly 50 % before the third wave moves the market back down.
This is how the time component of a decline works. the market can not just keep going down but it is years away from a new bull market , so.........
down , up , down .
we are now entering the up bit , will be swift ride to dow 10000 + then back down to 6500 or lower

Thanks for that Dumbass. Do you have any historical charts you can post that demonstrate that?
We have had 3 bottoms since and including November but I take it from your post your feeling is we are currently rising off the first of three. Have I got that right?

[STRAT]

I guess I'm saving myself for the right stock. :rolleyes:

Back on subject, my gut feeling is this is only a small run up. One or two bits of bad news will turn it around so fast, we'll forget it was even up in the first place. :eek:

Does that mean you have taken profit where you can and got out?

[dumbass]

Thanks for that Dumbass. Do you have any historical charts you can post that demonstrate that?
We have had 3 bottoms since and including November but I take it from your post your feeling is we are currently rising off the first of three. Have I got that right?

yes we have just completed first down leg and starting next counter trend leg up.
i have studied all major bear markets and most have retraced 50 % within the bear market before heading back down to test or exceed first leg lows.
unfortunately im just heading away for a few days so if your interested will post more info soon,
dont go away strat

[shasta]

Thanks for that Dumbass. Do you have any historical charts you can post that demonstrate that?
We have had 3 bottoms since and including November but I take it from your post your feeling is we are currently rising off the first of three. Have I got that right?

I'm going with a bear rally, followed by a sharp "correction" , some sideways movement for a while then leading to a final capitulation...

...then a bottom will form & a new bull market begins

[STRAT]

yes we have just completed first down leg and starting next counter trend leg up.
i have studied all major bear markets and most have retraced 50 % within the bear market before heading back down to test or exceed first leg lows.
unfortunately im just heading away for a few days so if your interested will post more info soon,
dont go away strat

Thanks Dumbass,I will be here when you get back :D

[STRAT]

Well it would appear bar one brave soul ( good on ya Hoop ) the Bears have it. I guess if everyone expects it, it will come to be. Whats more if everyone is watching for it ready to jump it will probably be a sharp high speed U turn as Shasta suggests. I will have one hand on the handbrake and the other on the rip chord of my parachute :D

[tricha]

Well it would appear bar one brave soul ( good on ya Hoop ) the Bears have it. I guess if everyone expects it, it will come to be. Whats more if everyone is watching for it ready to jump it will probably be a sharp high speed U turn as Shasta suggests. I will have one hand on the handbrake and the other on the rip chord of my parachute :D

Wise move Strat :)


The Daily Reckoning Australia

Paris, France - Melbourne, Australia
Wednesday, 18 March 2009

--If more bank losses are head (see below) then monetary expansion is on the cards to try and counter it. Deleveraging leads to lower asset prices. The Fed wants to fight it. We're not saying it will be successful. But there's no doubt Big Ben will try.

--"Bernanke May Need `Massive' Asset Purchases to Counter Deeper Contraction," reports Bloomberg. "The Federal Open Market Committee, gathering today and tomorrow in Washington, needs to redouble its efforts after the central bank's balance sheet shrank 17 percent from a $2.3 trillion December peak."

--Here's a thought though. The Fed may choose to expand its balance sheet by buying Treasuries. But it may not prop up markets at all. As Peter Schiff noted in a pod-cast (http://www.videonewslive.com/view/288549/peter_schiff_on_20092010_usa_hyperinflation) last week, the Fed may end up being the only large buyer of Treasuries while everyone else sells. U.S. interest rates will rise and the U.S. dollar will...not rise.

--Peter's suggestion a much more rapid dollar crisis than seems possible at the moment, given the casual way through which officials are waltzing through the crisis. But this G20 meeting in London next month should be interesting. We expect there to be social unrest and violence. We also expect that the world's investors may realise the markets overseers have no freakin' clue what they're doing. After that?

--Well, your guess is as good as ours. But we're looking to gold and oil. More on that later this week.

--Now about those mortgages...You remember the good old Option ARM don't you? That's the loan that allows you to choose the size of the payment you make on your monthly mortgage. Typically the loan begins with a twelve month introductory rate. After that, you can choose the minimum payment option.

--If you choose the minimum payment option, you actually pay less each month that the interest on your loan. That interest is deferred, but it's added to your principal. That means your principal is growing all the time. This is why these loans were also referred to as negative amortisation (or neg am) loans. You weren't paying it off. You were actually growing it.

--We hope you'll bear with us for a moment as we go through this. The reason? There's a slight sense of relief in markets right now. Everyone is throwing stones at AIG. And with the market putting a few good up days, people are losing the sense that our financial system faces serious problems. But they are trillions of dollars serious. And no amount of pleading by the U.S. Treasury Secretary for bankers to lend will change that. More losses are head.

--But what size will the losses be? Another trillion? Another two trillion? Well let's exclude commercial property and loans securitised with credit card receivables or auto loans. Let's just look at Option ARMs.

--Remember, an Option ARM loan "recasts" after five years to a new principal. The interest rate might even stay the same. But if the loan has been negatively amortising (growing as deferred interest payment are added to the principal), then the size of the loan is going to be much larger (an average of 30%, by some estimates).

--Even if you're paying the same interest rate, households at the margin are going to have a much harder time making minimum payments on loans that are 30% larger. And we're not talking a small amount here. The Washington Post reports that between 2004 and 2007, over US$750 billion in Option ARM loans were originated. The scary part is that, as of late December last year, 28% of those loans were either delinquent or already in foreclosure.

--And that's before the "recasts" have even hit the borrowers. Most "recasts" don't happen until five years down the track. That means mortgage holders wouldn't confront the prospect of a higher monthly payment until 2011 or 2012. The chart below from Credit Suisse shows the pig in the python problem.



http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/images/20090318A.jpg
Source: Credit Suisse
--Bernanke has solved the interest rate problem for home buyers with adjustable rate mortgages by slashing short-term rates to zero, effectively. What's more, he's conducted purchases of mortgage backed securities by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in an attempt to bring down mortgage rates directly.

--The looming trouble, however, is that negative amortisation ads to principal. It does so at a time when home prices continue to fall and unemployment is rising. Making a much higher payment is pretty shocking to begin with. It's near impossible when you're out of a job.

--The trouble will hit sooner than the Credit Suisse chart suggests. Option ARMs automatically recast at the higher principal level once a predetermined loan to value ratio (LTV) is reached. For example, say you take out an Option ARM at an 80% (LTV) and immediately begin making the minimum payment. Your loan automatically recasts at an 85% LTV ratio. In other words, your loan recasts sooner than the five years you expected because of negative amortisation.

--This is why the Credit Suisse chart shows a swelling amount of recasts beginning in April of 2009 and peaking in December of this year. It turns out many of those who took out Option ARMs chose the minimum payment. This led to much faster growth in the loan principal, thanks to neg am. And now, it's going to lead to a much sooner recast of the loan.

--As you may know, the current mortgage relief plans in the States, as feeble as they are, do not allow you to refinance your home if you already have negative equity. This means that in the coming months-starting next month-you have millions of home owners who will face much higher monthly payments on their mortgage.

--Do you think they'll pay them? Can they afford to? What will happen to house prices as this wave of neg am Option ARMs goes into default and foreclosure? There could be some real bargains in the housing market.

--But for the banks, there will be some real pain. The banks, the insurance companies, the usual suspects, these are the institutions that stand the most to lose from losses on that $750 billion wave of Option ARM recasts. We're not saying all those loans will go into default. But at the very least, the losses are certain to be taken, even though no one knows how big they will be.

--Now maybe all this is "priced in" to bank shares and financial stocks. It's pretty hard to price in what you don't know, though. What seems certain is that banks would want to hoard capital in the coming months, not lend it. They face hundreds of billions more in losses, and that's just from residential real estate (not commercial real estate or corporate bonds).

--How will credit recover under those conditions? We reckon it won't. In fact, the second contraction of the credit crisis could be worse than the first. You should consider that as you ponder your decision to get in our out of the stock market. Think of the number of companies that are already locked out of access to capital and credit. Will that improve in the coming months?

--There's a very real chance it could get much worse. Of course we hope that's not true. But if it is, it means all those clowns holding press conferences about bailouts and recoveries are just whistling past the grave yard.

--If they were smart, they'd be storing up cash and keeping their monkey yaps shut, or better yet, setting up a warehouse to settle all the CDS AIG has underwritten so it doesn't continue to be a giant conduit between the American tax payer and AIGs counterparties (http://www.aig.com/aigweb/internet/en/files/Counterparties_tcm385-153017.pdf) (investment banks and commercial banks that bought CDS from AIG).

[Phaedrus]

I will have one hand on the handbrake and the other on the rip chord of my parachute
Spoken like a true musician!

[STRAT]

Spoken like a true musician!

What can I say Phaedrus. Im a very sporty musician :D
While you are here would you like to throw your thoughts into the mix? Bear Rally or Bottom?

[easy money]

The bottom has been found...The bull has started to run.

[Phaedrus]

I guess that I might perhaps consider it to be a Bear rally, but see no value in trying to make a "call" as such. What I see is an uptrend with trading potential. Bear rally or bottom, either way this uptrend WILL peter out. What do I care how far the subsequent downtrend runs?

[Damo79]

I'm going to join a couple of others on a limb, and say the bottom has been reached. That's not to say I think this rally will continue far though. I'm expecting up to a couple of years of sideways trading of the base that was reached in the past few weeks.

[The Big Ease]

the banks declaring profitable quarters is the beginning of the end of the financial crisis.
but i wont pretend to know what that means for the sharemarkets right now.

if there was a list of things you would have to see before a recovery, it would be:
banks returning to profit (some have)
libor to come down (it has)
losses/write downs come down to a trickle (lets see...)
stimulus packages are actually put in place and spent (on their way)

anyone notice the much talked about baltic dry index shooting up again?
thats a good sign that trade is on it way back up, which probably means banks are willing to provide trade finance and some sort of trust is beginning to creep back into the market.

she is a big ship though and im sure the market will run ahead of itself, then pull back too far and then make another run.

but really, who knows? i don't.
im just glad im in the money with my latest "trade"

[Footsie]

NO conclusion can be reached until we have a higher low after a decent period of time.

The most likely scenario is a bear rally which takes the market up a further 10-15% over the next 6 weeks.

I believe the market needs more time to form a sustainable bottom.

But hey, anything is possible.

Personaly I have not positioned my porftolio as if this is the bottom.

[suntboy]

Bull Rally
All the newbie high flyers that had not experienced a crash until now would have consolidated their jobs and debt and will start remembering how well they had been doing on the sharemarket.
They will start to get interested again and see the shares they once owned at $10 trading for $1 and the run will begin

Welcome To Suntland

[Stranger_Danger]

I'm continuing to tinker round with the same things I was tinkering around with a week ago.

I have no idea whether this is the bottom, my guess would be no, but you never know until afterwards really.

[Greenfield]

I predict the DJIA will be downhill from tonight to 6000 by mid April then another small bear rally.

Short and sweet

[STRAT]

That might be a very timely posting there Greenfield now that the Yanks are planning to print their dollar into free fall.

What will happen on Wall St tonight? Will this be seen as good news? will it be buy buy buy or will be seen as total and complete desperation followed by a mass exit?

[easy money]

buy...buy...buy

[dumbass]

Thanks Dumbass,I will be here when you get back :D

wake up strat!

A little bit of a history lesson, i know its not everyones cup of tea to gain insight from events that took place many moons ago because this time its 'different'. As we have the internet , drivatives , black boxes , hedge funds blah blah.
Human emotions dont change though and how markets have reacted in the past when confronted with similar market conditions is very relevant.


From the year 1929 there have only been three bear markets with this type of price destruction: 1973-1974 (47%), 1937-1942 (53%), and 1929-1932 (89%). The last one was a Supercycle bear market, and the other two were Cycle wave bear markets.

1929: started with a 50% crash drop, retraced 50%, and then eroded for months on end to much lower levels, took 34 months.

1937: started with a 50% drop over 12 months, with a 40% crash in the middle, retraced 62%, and then eroded for months on end to a double bottom, took 61 months.

1973: started quitely, had a 62% retracement after the first drop, then crashed 33% near the end, and the market lost a total of 47%, took 23 months.


I believe the most relevant information applicable to where we are at right at this moment , is the abilty for a market to retrace a significant amount in the midst of a bear market.
It has always done it before.

it sounds a crazy thing to say but im picking a market rally to at least 9500 but more likely 10500
The more you guys think im nuts, the more confidence i have in my counterintuitive postion,
as i have history on my side.

But this rally will end and the market will crash again to complete the bear market however im looking at the trading direction for next 6 months or so and im applying my normal ta analysis from the long side for the first time in a long time.

[outspoken]

good post dumbass, thanks.

[contrarianinvestor]

It is very interesting to see all the opinions. Since most people at this point in time think that the market will go further down, I'll stand by my contrarian user name i.e. we are probably already at the start of a very strong bull market!

[STRAT]

Im awake, Im awake
What gave me away? the druel on my keyboard.

Thanks Dumbass

PS Im fond of History. Would you have a chart by any chance that goes back that far?

[dumbass]

hey strat , homework on the weekend !
ya miserable git!

here lies a chart of 1929 - 1932 dow .

you can see early on in the decline there was a significant rally , The B wave before a killer C wave

your homework is to study Elliot wave FLAT CORRECTIONS as im picking thats what is unfolding this time around.

[STRAT]

hey strat , homework on the weekend !
ya miserable git!

here lies a chart of 1929 - 1932 dow .

you can see early on in the decline there was a significant rally , The B wave before a killer C wave

your homework is to study Elliot wave FLAT CORRECTIONS as im picking thats what is unfolding this time around.Will do but not today. Its the weekend and friends, my guitar and a bottle of Scotch are higher up on my to do list.

Thanks for the Chart

[brettdale]

Wait a year, and the worse will be over, well according to what i have read anyway.

[STRAT]

Wait a year, and the worse will be over, well according to what i have read anyway.Hi Brettdale,
If the worst of it will be over in a year and you wait it out then surely that will mean you miss the boat?

[duncan macgregor]

Hi Brettdale,
If the worst of it will be over in a year and you wait it out then surely that will mean you miss the boat? Its much safer to get on board after they fix the leak. Why rush in to risk your dollars trying to win a few extra cents?. Macdunk

[STRAT]

Its much safer to get on board after they fix the leak. Why rush in to risk your dollars trying to win a few extra cents?. Macdunkbecause Im doin better than a few extra cents. As an advocate of TA surely you have seen opportunities over the last year Duncan. For example March to May 08. Over the last month and in many cases from Nov08 right through to now.

[The Big Ease]

the banks declaring profitable quarters is the beginning of the end of the financial crisis.
but i wont pretend to know what that means for the sharemarkets right now.

if there was a list of things you would have to see before a recovery, it would be:

banks returning to profit (some have)
libor to come down (it has)
losses/write downs come down to a trickle (lets see...)
stimulus p
ackages are actually put in place and spent (on their way)

anyone notice the much talked about baltic dry index shooting up again?
thats a good sign that trade is on it way back up, which probably means banks are willing to provide trade finance and some sort of trust is beginning to creep back into the market.

she is a big ship though and im sure the market will run ahead of itself, then pull back too far and then make another run.

but really, who knows? i don't.
im just glad im in the money with my latest "trade"
anyone else want to have a go at adding to this lis?

[dumbass]

here lies a chart of 1929 - 1932 dow .

you can see early on in the decline there was a significant rally , The B wave before a killer C wave



As much as 1929 to 1932 was a bear market of epic proportions , the bull market from 1921 to 1929 was one hell of a bull market
50 - 375 in under 10 years and as is common a hyperbolic rise leads to a crash back to where it all started.

[STRAT]

hey strat , homework on the weekend !
ya miserable git!

.Good morning Sir,
I Have started my homework sir but will need to study more before drawing any conclusions. Deciding where points 1-5 and A-C should be I guess is the trick. It wouldnt be difficult to get it wrong and draw the wrong conclusions I suspect.

[Ptolemy]

I found this chart posted on another forum - I found it fascinating.

You could come to all sorts of consclusions and projections as to where the markets are going to go from here based on what you think the fundamentals of the US economy is compared to the other times.

The one thing that strikes me though is the relatively short period there has been from the geginning of this bear compared to the others. Why should this bear market be so much shorter than the others? I can't think of a reason. Fundamentals still look bleak to me.

[Dr_Who]

Ptolemy, can you please post a link or a large graph. Cheers mate.

[dumbass]

spot on strat, each count is subjective within the framework of a rigid set of rules that can never be compromised.At any stage in a wave count there will be alternative counts and therefore a coumt needs to be reviewed and updated closely.

i believe we are currently on the dow at the end of wave A and have started wave B up

in the wave B , we can look at smaller waves within the B wave and i reckon we have just finished first wave up which means that wave 2 back down is in progress.

the rules of the waves tell me what to expect ( if my count is correct )

eg wave 2 can not retrace wave 1 fully , therefore dow bottom can not be exceeded

wave 2 will be a 3 wave abc (most likely a zig zag correction ) , so i will count the waves down.
when wave 2 ends, fib levels and wave structure rules will help to define this , i will enter long.

my risk is defined as the previous swing low, my potential profit will exceed my risk by many times as if im correct i will ride the third wave up ( the most profitable wave )

i will count the third wave up and get out.

hope im not putting you to sleep again strat

[dumbass]

I found this chart posted on another forum - I found it fascinating.

You could come to all sorts of consclusions and projections as to where the markets are going to go from here based on what you think the fundamentals of the US economy is compared to the other times.

The one thing that strikes me though is the relatively short period there has been from the geginning of this bear compared to the others. Why should this bear market be so much shorter than the others? I can't think of a reason. Fundamentals still look bleak to me.

you got it ptolemy , the time component is way too short for this bear to end but ....

it can go up and then back down to effectively satisfy time component without going much lower from a price perspective.
its called a flat correction and strat knows all about them.

[Lotto]

Dr W this is the link you are lookin for
http://dshort.com/charts/bear-markets.html?four-bears

[STRAT]

hope im not putting you to sleep again stratHell no Sir, As a TA apprentice Im soaking everything up like a sponge and I appreciate you giving me/us an insite into your strategy.

Plan to apply the hard and fast rules of the Elliot Wave ( once I get my head around it completely ) to the DOW and All Ords this week and if I end up with a different outcome I will share it with you so you can sort me out :D

[STRAT]

Hi Dumbass,
Looks like this rally might have some legs left in it afterall :D
DOW up nearlly 7% over night with heavy trading at open and close. Oil up too.

I guess this means Obamas latest speech gets a big thumbs up from Wall St

[dumbass]

legs alright , target its 10,500

[Footsie]

That was powerful. HOt damn

I think we may see 950-1000 on the SP500 by the end of April....

then resume the downtrend.



IF we do get to say 950 in a few weeks then it's more likely that this rally will fail, too much too fast.

[Dr_Who]

Must be all the hedge funds covering their short position.

[STRAT]

Hey Duncan you are missing another Rally mate :D

Best sell some of that 20/40 and have a play

[Hoop]

legs alright , target its 10,500

TA wise The DOW has to bore it's way through that thick 7900-8500 concrete roof to get there.
This DOW flubber cat may be bouncing around the room for a while... floor (7500) ceiling (7900) or if it on a mission to go North get stuck in a trading range amongst that 7900-8500 resistance band.

If by a miracle it has enough buying pressure to rise above this 7900-8500 band it will become a concrete floor :D

If it falls below 7500 again Colin Twiggs has a TA target of 5500. Mind you after todays performance by the DOW he may change his outlook. It seems the other stockmarkets bullish divergences may be the leaders and not the DOW. However always mindful of his quote. Careful sitting in a small boat with an Elephant

[STRAT]

Maybe he's planing on using a little 20/40 to stop the brakes from squealing when the rally comes to an abrupt stop. ;)If he puts oil on his brake pads there will be no stopping him :D

[duncan macgregor]

If he puts oil on his brake pads there will be no stopping him :D STRAT, Plenty of time to climb on board once this financial mess gets sorted. I expect a few wild fluctuations in the market before that happens. The American dollar must drop so i expect a lot of down side still to come. Investing is all about being in rising markets, and keeping out of falling markets which i have picked dead right so far. I cant see much upside for some considerable time so quite content to spend my time out fishing in the blue yonder. You cant throw good money after bad and cross your fingers without it coming back to bite you on the bum. When i see commodoties in confirmed uptrends i might sit up and take notice, but until that happens feel free to buy my share.

[Mick100]

When i see commodoties in confirmed uptrends i might sit up and take notice,.

That's what I watch for too Macdunk
Interesting that copper has broken it's downtrend over the past couple of trading days. Copper is an excellent leading indicator for commodties and the markets in general - the only thing I'm weary about is the very high copper inventories - is this price rise sustainable?

[Dr_Who]

That's what I watch for too Macdunk
Interesting that copper has broken it's downtrend over the past couple of trading days. Copper is an excellent leading indicator for commodties and the markets in general - the only thing I'm weary about is the very high copper inventories - is this price rise sustainable?


The rumour is that the Chinese are stock piling again.

[STRAT]

. Investing is all about being in rising markets, and keeping out of falling markets which i have picked dead right so far. Yes you have picked it right. Theres no denying that but I thought you were a TA Trader. Didnt you say on more than one occasion that "buy and hold is a mugs game"?
Ive been sitting on my hands too but there was a nice tradable rally around May last year and this is shaping up to be a goodin too.

[Hoop]

The rumour is that the Chinese are stock piling again.

Aha!...thxs for that DrW....that would be the reason for that upward tick in the last day or two on the LME Copper Warehouse Stock levels (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#30days)

[Mick100]

The rumour is that the Chinese are stock piling again.

Yeah "stockpiling" - they are not actually using the stuff
What happens when they stop buying?

[Dr_Who]

Yeah "stockpiling" - they are not actually using the stuff
What happens when they stop buying?

From viewing the Chinese interest in iron ore companies in Aussie tells me that they are stockpiling for a very good reason. I assume they are getting ready to upgrade their huge infrastructure projects.

[macduffy]

From viewing the Chinese interest in iron ore companies in Aussie tells me that they are stockpiling for a very good reason. I assume they are getting ready to upgrade their huge infrastructure projects.

Apart from anything else, the Chinese as the biggest buyers of iron ore would like to have a say in the price that they pay. Hence their interest in acquiring shareholdings at, for them, an opportune time.
I don't think it necessarily signals any step up in their usage of the stuff.

[Greenfield]

well I am glad mt prediction was way off, All my shares have recovered there losses and even show a profit and finally I can get out before the next big problem.

[Hoop]

well I am glad mt prediction was way off, All my shares have recovered there losses and even show a profit and finally I can get out before the next big problem.


Greenfield your thinking is in tune with the investor masses.

This type of investor behaviour works well for the fleet-footed investor at this stage of the market cycle, and is another indicator of a slow recovering market being formed.

[STRAT]

Still think this is a bear rally and quatitive easing ( lol which is printing more worthless paper money to pay off worthless paper assets ) has to make anyone wonder if this is the last nail in the coffin of the worlds financial system.

That aside many of the stocks I have on watch show last November as their bottom thus far having gone through the recent bottom somewhat unscathed. I will be watching these close. New lows for these stocks ( there are many ) may send me crawling back under my rock

[The Big Ease]

great discussion :)

[tricha]

Still think this is a bear rally and quatitive easing ( lol which is printing more worthless paper money to pay off worthless paper assets ) has to make anyone wonder if this is the last nail in the coffin of the worlds financial system.

That aside many of the stocks I have on watch show last November as their bottom thus far having gone through the recent bottom somewhat unscathed. I will be watching these close. New lows for these stocks ( there are many ) may send me crawling back under my rock

U better find that rock :eek:


World stocks hit by economy woes


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45614000/jpg/_45614803_006892573-1.jpg Automotive and finance firms have seen their stock fall

World stocks have fallen, notably in Asia, amid worries over the depth of the financial crisis and persistent problems in the US car industry. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell nearly 5% amid concerns about Asia's ability to recover while the US remained weak.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei index fell after data showed industrial production slumped in February.
Meanwhile, Germany's Dax fell 3.3%, France's Cac 40 shed 2.6% and the UK's FTSE 100 declined 2%.
Car rescue
The White House is expected to make an announcement soon regarding a pending automotive sector bail-out and what car firms need to do gain further capital.
Shares of car firms in Japan fell after the US administration said plans presented by struggling firms GM and Chrysler did not yet merit such aid.
Nissan fell 7.7%, Honda shed 6.7%, and Toyota fell 3.7%.
The two firms have already received $17.4bn in bail-outs. Chrysler has requested a further $5bn, while GM says it needs $16.7bn more.
Finance shares were also hit, with KB Financial Group down 6.5% in Seoul and Mitsubishi UFJ Finance down 8.8% in Tokyo.
Also adding to worries were comments from JP Morgan and Bank of America that business conditions had worsened recently.
Both mining stocks and finance-related stocks were hard hit on the FTSE. Xstrata and Kazakhmys shed more than 7%, as did Friends Provident and Aviva.
France's main faller was Credit Agricole, down 9%, while in Germany, the lead decliner was Commerzbank, which fell about 12%.

[STRAT]

U better find that rock :eek:


World stocks hit by economy woes


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45614000/jpg/_45614803_006892573-1.jpg Automotive and finance firms have seen their stock fall

World stocks have fallen, notably in Asia, amid worries over the depth of the financial crisis and persistent problems in the US car industry. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell nearly 5% amid concerns about Asia's ability to recover while the US remained weak.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei index fell after data showed industrial production slumped in February.
Meanwhile, Germany's Dax fell 3.3%, France's Cac 40 shed 2.6% and the UK's FTSE 100 declined 2%.
Car rescue
The White House is expected to make an announcement soon regarding a pending automotive sector bail-out and what car firms need to do gain further capital.
Shares of car firms in Japan fell after the US administration said plans presented by struggling firms GM and Chrysler did not yet merit such aid.
Nissan fell 7.7%, Honda shed 6.7%, and Toyota fell 3.7%.
The two firms have already received $17.4bn in bail-outs. Chrysler has requested a further $5bn, while GM says it needs $16.7bn more.
Finance shares were also hit, with KB Financial Group down 6.5% in Seoul and Mitsubishi UFJ Finance down 8.8% in Tokyo.
Also adding to worries were comments from JP Morgan and Bank of America that business conditions had worsened recently.
Both mining stocks and finance-related stocks were hard hit on the FTSE. Xstrata and Kazakhmys shed more than 7%, as did Friends Provident and Aviva.
France's main faller was Credit Agricole, down 9%, while in Germany, the lead decliner was Commerzbank, which fell about 12%.
Tricha can you please leave the dates on these scary articles so we know how current the latest wave of terror is?

[tricha]

Tricha can you please leave the dates on these scary articles so we know how current the latest wave of terror is?



Page last updated at 09:26 GMT, Monday, 30 March 2009 10:26 UK,

a few minutes ago, yeah the trap has snapped shut :p

[STRAT]

Thanks Tricha
Notice the DOW is making a bit of an end of day come back on significant volume. Looks like the November low might not be breached today

[STRAT]

Thanks Tricha
Notice the DOW is making a bit of an end of day come back on significant volume. Looks like the November low might not be breached todayOK it has been. Just. Looking for a bounce tonight. Fingers crossed :D

[The Big Ease]

if you are looking for good news, there is plenty of it poking through

economic recovery: 17,471 items
http://news.google.com.au/news?q=signs%20recovery&sourceid=navclient-ff&rlz=1B3GGGL_enGB221GB221&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&hl=en&tab=wn

recession: 238,623
http://news.google.com.au/news?um=1&ned=au&hl=en&q=recession

bad news travels faster, doesnt it.
there are loads of signs that we might just, maybe, possibly about to enter a period where we will see a slowdown of the economic contraction.

[Hoop]

TA wise The DOW has to bore it's way through that thick 7900-8500 concrete roof to get there.
This DOW flubber cat may be bouncing around the room for a while... floor (7500) ceiling (7900) or if it on a mission to go North get stuck in a trading range amongst that 7900-8500 resistance band.

If by a miracle it has enough buying pressure to rise above this 7900-8500 band it will become a concrete floor :D

If it falls below 7500 again Colin Twiggs has a TA target of 5500. Mind you after todays performance by the DOW he may change his outlook. It seems the other stockmarkets bullish divergences may be the leaders and not the DOW. However always mindful of his quote. Careful sitting in a small boat with an Elephant

The 7500 area seems to be the floor today.

[STRAT]

OK it has been. Just. Looking for a bounce tonight. Fingers crossed :Dand bounce it has. Short of a collapse on the next hour its lookin good for today.

Looks like I get to stay above ground for another day Tricha :D

[Dr_Who]

The market is feeling better. It will be volitile, but investors are starting to buy on the down days instead of trying to sell on the bounce days.

[Hoop]

...

But we are also just at the beginning of the "recession" ....

KW.... NZ has just recorded 4 negative quarters now, so we have been in a recession for a year. US looking at 9 months in recession

Ok Australia faired this global downturn well economically speaking but don't you think with the recent commodity uptick OZ may escape a with only a very short recession say 6 months ..and it could be nearing an end?

[STRAT]

Wall Street jumps ends best month since Oct 2002



Tuesday March 31, 2009, 4:17 pm EDT



Buzz up!
Print (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wall-Street-jumps-ends-best-rb-14803706.html/print)


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks climbed on Tuesday, sending the S&P 500 (^SPX (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5espx) - News (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h;_ylt=AijRFyJWktS6o5myDu5Nk_9Q5D0D?s=_spx)) to its best month since October 2002, as investors snapped up top-performing bank and technology shares as the first quarter came to an end.
http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/fi/21/79/54.jpg Reuters - A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, March 30, 2009. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton ...


Banks rose on Barclays and Fortis news, while a Microsoft upgrade helped boost the tech sector.
For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5edji) - News (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=_dji)) gained 86.90 points, or 1.16 percent, to close unofficially at 7,608.92. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5espx) - News (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=_spx)) rose 10.34 points, or 1.31 percent, to 797.87. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5eixic) - News (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h;_ylt=AkD5g.8qQZK1EtW3D_KEtpBQ5D0D?s=_ixic)) added 26.79 points, or 1.78 percent, to 1,528.59.
(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Jan Paschal)

[OutToLunch]

This could be grasping at straws but perhaps there's a psychological thing going on too with respect to spring arriving in the northern hemisphere. Is it the same reason why October and November are often poor months in the markets? Dunno -- but it's sunny here today and I'm loving it so it has to be true. :D

[Hoop]

This could be grasping at straws but perhaps there's a psychological thing going on too with respect to spring arriving in the northern hemisphere. Is it the same reason why October and November are often poor months in the markets? Dunno -- but it's sunny here today and I'm loving it so it has to be true. :D

History (Based on the DOW and S&P500) has proven that certain months are much better than others...also research have proven with startling results that May - Oct is the bad 6 months and the Nov - April the good 6 months over a period of time.

Check out my post #199 on the "when to re-enter the market" thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=197137#post197137) for more detail and referenced links.....these research results are a must see as they are totally amazing.

[Hoop]

Was only referring to Australia as this is the ASX forum not the NZX. And no, I dont think the Aus recession will be a quick one. It sucks out there - I know so many people who have lost their jobs, cant get work or their contracts extended, shops are closing all over the place, malls are becoming empty, airports are deserted ... they havent even called a recession yet and you can physcially see how bad it is out there! It will definately get worse as companies keep laying off staff, and consumer wallets close up further.

Thxs for the on the spot observations, KW... gives me a perspective that I can't otherwise determine (from not being in Australia)... figures can be misleading and the Media..well we all know about them.

[Hoop]

History (Based on the DOW and S&P500) has proven that certain months are much better than others...also research have proven with startling results that May - Oct is the bad 6 months and the Nov - April the good 6 months over a period of time.

Check out my post #199 on the "when to re-enter the market" thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=197137#post197137) for more detail and referenced links.....these research results are a must see as they are totally amazing.

Todays Marketwatch has as a related article (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/March-madness-might-bode-well/story.aspx?guid=%7B10257FD3-6D14-4801-8374-BF2636F9DE72%7D)....plus statistical info
"Prior history shows that future market performance the following month and within the following year tends to be positive," said Dan Greenhaus, market strategist at Miller Tabak.

[dumbass]

hi strat , this is shaping up to be a nice long entry on sp 500

market moved up in a clear 5 wave impulse with an ending diagonal in fifth wave position.
wave 1 or A

retracement unfolding now which will be 3 waves
wave 2 or B

classic retracement will be between 50% - 61.8% of wave up.

there is a trend line around 61.8% and a pivot point at 734, hopefully indicators will become over sold and diverge for a long entry and some big profit.

[STRAT]

Thanks Dumbass
I appologise for having not done my homework.:o Unfortunately Ive a bit busy with the day job and 08 end of year tax sh*t which is a bit late :o:o

VPE may have found a top today. Guess I will find out tomorrow

[STRAT]

Hows that target of 10500 lookin Dumbass.
Looks like we are running out of steam to me

[dumbass]

consolidation is good after a big rally , still very bullish at current juncture.

[lakedaemonian]

Since the dead cat was dropped from such height it is sure to bounce reasonably high.....

....before it ratchets down again :(

I'll still be staying away from equities as I have for 18+ months, with the exception of my long-term hold NZX:NZR.

Otherwise.......it's extra heavy liquidity for me.

It smells like a trader's market, but I'm not a fan of dashing out to pick up coins on the Motorway....even if there's the odd Krugerrand lying about in this dead cat bounce market.

I'm shifting a big chunk out of the NZD and into USD on my way to gold/silver/oil, buying on weakness.

A couple least bad options in my opinion.

Just my 0.02c

[STRAT]

Thanks fellas

So thats a yes, a no and a maybe :D

That pretty much covers my thoughts too :D

From a non technical perspective I havent been all that confident that Obama speeches and printing more monopoly money would do the trick for long.

[dumbass]

Strat , just to put comment in the right context.
bullish in what is without any question in my mind a bear market rally, which will run higher and longer than most people expect,then back down.

[STRAT]

Strat , just to put comment in the right context.
bullish in what is without any question in my mind a bear market rally, which will run higher and longer than most people expect,then back down.Thanks Dumbass but that was always crystal clear. I did assume that AA was also reffering to the short term.

[Footsie]

we are currently in a short term bull market within a longer term bear market.

since Oct 07 there this is the second short term bull, the first was April-May 08

This one is now March-??? 09

The trend of this short term bull remains intact for now.

A retracement to say 760 on the SP500 would be acceptable.
a trade below 750..... and its curtains for this short term bull.

[Hoop]

TA wise The DOW has to bore it's way through that thick 7900-8500 concrete roof to get there.
This DOW flubber cat may be bouncing around the room for a while... floor (7500) ceiling (7900) or if it on a mission to go North get stuck in a trading range amongst that 7900-8500 resistance band.

If by a miracle it has enough buying pressure to rise above this 7900-8500 band it will become a concrete floor :D

If it falls below 7500 again Colin Twiggs has a TA target of 5500. Mind you after todays performance by the DOW he may change his outlook. It seems the other stockmarkets bullish divergences may be the leaders and not the DOW. However always mindful of his quote. Careful sitting in a small boat with an Elephant
Nothing has changed since my post 2 weeks ago except Colin Twiggs has changed his view to bullish.

Agree with AA

DOW is creating a possible trading range 7500 floor 7900ish to 8500 resistance band ceiling. I expect it will keep bounching around this area for now as there doesn't seem to be enough "available" money committed to push the DOW through that ceiling.

Note: poor "bear" rally (ended?) (uncharacteristic) which make me still think it is a wavey L shape recovery.. a typical signature of a baby bull.
All recovering market (very noticeable with NZX) typical baby bull signatures seen are markets which are full of disappointments, the money starts flowing back into the market only to be sucked up and out of circulation by the capital raising companies .. available money that's left tends to concentrated into pocket areas causing big jumps in a share price while other areas are devoid of cash at this time causing steep drops in share prices. The market place looks like the aftermarth of a nuclear explosion and th doom merchants are roaming the derelict streets spelling out their "end is near and repent your sins" prophecies.

Baby bulls (Bull Market (1) cycle) are just as dangerous as old bears, with minefields everywhere.

Note these market signatures have changed since the last year...this present event is not showing the typical Bear market signatures of buying across the board "bargains" with hope and optimism still in tact (denial), nor is it the pump and dump causing big unsustainable cross the board rallies with steep drops creating new much lower lows due to unwinding of hedge funds and other equity market trusts having to sell..nor the experienced players selling into the rallies with their exiting strategies. It was distribution then ..

..............now it is accumulation, abeit.. localised into certain stocks.


Also note trends and cycles don't last forever.


Copper prices the leading indicator for the Bear/ Bull market cycle change has never failed yet...and copper has been in a great uptrend now since beginning of February .

Guys forget gold (downtrend?) and other (downtrending?) fads (US$?) When everyone tells you a product should be bought as it will make you money, it is the time to sell it.... gold is a great historic example.

One should always invest in an uptrending markets (nobody tells you of these markets..do they? until its too late) ....try copper if you find equities too tough at the moment.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/spot-copper-1y-07042009.gif


http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/%5BIMG%5Dhttp://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/spot-copper-1y-07042009.gif%5B/IMG%5D

[Dr_Who]

Thats a nice copper graph mate.

I am glade I have copper exposure through a copper stock in Aussie.

[Hoop]

we are currently in a short term bull market within a longer term bear market.

since Oct 07 there this is the second short term bull, the first was April-May 08

This one is now March-??? 09

The trend of this short term bull remains intact for now.

A retracement to say 760 on the SP500 would be acceptable.
a trade below 750..... and its curtains for this short term bull.

Agree..but not as you see it Footsie...I see those mini bulls you mentioned as bear market rallies.

My agree with you are longer term scenarios
Possibly a new Bull but within a secular bear market (super cycle)

DOW, S&P been in a secular bear market cycle since 2000

NZX secular bull market cycle ended end of 2007 as did All ords on ASX. We are now in the beginning of a secular bear cycle.

Secular bear cycles have a variable life span ....the average is 14 years....but don't despair as there can be some good bull market cycles within
....example the DOW Bull during 2003 -2007

[The Big Ease]

one of the most respected economic business cycle researchers
http://www.businesscycle.com/resources/



http://www.businesscycle.com/files/ecri_data/monthly_indexes.gif

clearly a bottom predicted by the leading indicator (green). they seem to have good form on these things.


Shaded areas represent growth rate cycle downturns. Horizontal dashes near the bottom mark off U.S. business cycle recessions.

[STRAT]

Fellas,
Can any of you using Incredible Charts tell me if it is possible to load commodities such as metals etc ?

[Mick100]

One should always invest in an uptrending markets (nobody tells you of these markets..do they? until its too late) ....try copper if you find equities too tough at the moment.

]

Are you long copper hoop?

[Footsie]

Hoop as discussed previously i've used the 13/34 ema daily for short term bull/bear and the 13/34 weekly for long term bull/bear..

personally, with regard to the 16 year secular cycles. Not sure i subscribe to that 100%.
besides i dont have that kind of time to wait around waiting for trends to change.

[Hoop]

Are you long copper hoop?
Hi Mick

no I'm not:(
I've been a share type person ..I really should set up an trading account somewhere to trade in commodities. What's the best broker Mick

However i do practice what I preach..been sniffing around the copper company shares NCM EQN CDU KZL ABY BTR and others for a little while and have bought into Kagara KZL and Aditya Birla Minerals ABY which are doing very nicely as we speak.

[Mick100]

Hi Mick

no I'm not:(
I've been a share type person ..I really should set up an trading account somewhere to trade in commodities. What's the best broker Mick

.

Hoop , I'v sent you a PM

[The Big Ease]

DJI holding nicely at 8067 with an hour to go.
its been a strong day after wells fargo announced a "record" profit.
apparently the wachovia acquisition is performing better than expected.


ironically, we could see financials pump up the market with results that aren't as bad as expected, while the industrials get hammered due to the financial crisis blowing out into a global recession.

[digger]

DJI holding nicely at 8067 with an hour to go.
its been a strong day after wells fargo announced a "record" profit.
apparently the wachovia acquisition is performing better than expected.


ironically, we could see financials pump up the market with results that aren't as bad as expected, while the industrials get hammered due to the financial crisis blowing out into a global recession.


I believe the market while the recovery has a long way to go it has also come a long way. Expectations especially have fallen so low that the market will respond to any good news however small.My feeling is that expectations tend to drive the market perhaps even more than fundamentals,and we certainly have through the world press had a timely knock in this area.OK i will stick my neck out and say this is the bottom and the world govts will print monies to prevent things from getting any worse for now. The for now bit will change once Peak Oil reinvents itself to the wider public and can no longer be ignored. But for now we have bottomed brought about by our overall lower expectations.

[Hoop]

Fellas,
Can any of you using Incredible Charts tell me if it is possible to load commodities such as metals etc ?

Hi Strat

try this

....top left hand corner click on securities

....click search for security name (a window box appears)

....type in the box what you want followed by space then asterisk * then click find now.

E.g Gold * this bought up 573 items.

[STRAT]

Hi Strat

try this

....top left hand corner click on securities

....click search for security name (a window box appears)

....type in the box what you want followed by space then asterisk * then click find now.

E.g Gold * this bought up 573 items.Thanks Hoop,
I gave that a crack but it only seems to bring up securities.

I was trying to get a chart for the price of copper that I can play with rather than Copper miners or merchants.

[shasta]

Thanks Hoop,
I gave that a crack but it only seems to bring up securities.

I was trying to get a chart for the price of copper that I can play with rather than Copper miners or merchants.

Not sure if this contains the data you are after

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html

I'm guessing you want the different indicators?

[STRAT]

Not sure if this contains the data you are after

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html

I'm guessing you want the different indicators?Thanks Shasta but what I wanted was interactive charts as you have said. Very useful site though.

[Lotto]

Strat
Been having a look around and found this.
Not sure if it is what you want.
To call up copper try $copper

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD

[STRAT]

Strat
Been having a look around and found this.
Not sure if it is what you want.
To call up copper try $copper

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLDHi Lotto,
Thanks for that.

[Lotto]

Strat
Just a couple of other things I have noticed
Make the graph larger by clicking on 'size'' and clicking on 'landscape''
Also if you want to put trend lines on click ''annotate'' (annotate is just under the graph . It takes a few seconds to come up on my PC and it states ''Java'' has to be working . very good site with lots of ''public charts'' user graphs able to be displayed.

[STRAT]

What do you reckon Dumbass and others

The DOW charts below are telling me this rally is running out of gas. Have you any amendments to make on your last forcast?

[STRAT]

Strat
Just a couple of other things I have noticed
Make the graph larger by clicking on 'size'' and clicking on 'landscape''
Also if you want to put trend lines on click ''annotate'' (annotate is just under the graph . It takes a few seconds to come up on my PC and it states ''Java'' has to be working . very good site with lots of ''public charts'' user graphs able to be displayed.Thanks for that also Lotto

[STRAT]

Hi Strat, What are your green and Red vertical Lines based on.

ThanksHi AA,
They are indicator trigger points.
I would post it all but if I add the rest the charts are even smaller :( I need Vince to give me a few more pixels or something

Anyway the indicators on that chart are
Accumulation Distribution
MacD (unk:D) 26 12 9
Momentum Daily
OBV
Relative Strength
ADX

As you know Im experimenting/fooling around with indicators. When one triggers I add a vertical line to the chart. Red for oh dear and green for Woopee :D

With regard to the post It was the candles I was lookin at. Couldnt be bothered removing the clutter.

PS Since our TA discussin on VPE I have traded out and back in of the options. Managed to lower my average by 2.5c. While it hasnt made a huge difference to the bottom line ( I maintained the same number ) Its done wonders for the percentages. My average is now between 5 and 5.5c. Not sure of the exact number. Point is, I owe you and Phaedrus a beer or two I reckon

[STRAT]

Your weekly chart shows contracting price ranges as the price moves towards resistance and at the moment is getting squeezed against resistance, it indicates a slow down in momentum. The Last bar fails to Close above the previous Bar, failing to make a higher high based on close price(can't see if the high made a higher high, chart too small), a pause in momentum if you like, these pauses are areas where reversals are more likely to take effect. Certainly Touch and go at the moment. The fact that the last price bar still made a higher low was positive though and I would say at this stage the Bulls are still winning the battle.

P.s did you know you can change your indicators to weekly, for when you use weekly charts? Im guessing you do.Yup I did know that. Thanks

TA is like playing Guitar.
Looks simple at first glance but the more you learn, the more you realize you dont know.
If guitar is any gauge I should be quite good at TA in about 20 years or so :D

[STRAT]

. Point is, I owe you and Phaedrus a beer or two I reckonand Bermuda a bottle of Scotch :D

[dumbass]

What do you reckon Dumbass and others

The DOW charts below are telling me this rally is running out of gas. Have you any amendments to make on your last forcast?

so far strat following the script, looks to me like the minor wave a of the major WAVE B is close to complete.
terminal diagonal or ascending wedge whatever you want to call it is unfolding with divergence on RSI, and close to 23.6 fib level.
price should now correct lower before rally resumes, still looking to higher levels.

[The Big Ease]

one of the most respected economic business cycle researchers
http://www.businesscycle.com/resources/



http://www.businesscycle.com/files/ecri_data/monthly_indexes.gif

clearly a bottom predicted by the leading indicator (green). they seem to have good form on these things.



that link has just been updated. i was watching a video from one of their economists who said the long lead indicator tipped up in november and continued. the weekly leading indicator tipped up in december and has continued and now the sharemarket seems to be leading higher.

all three events (in that order) have led to a recovery in the economic cycle each time since 1920. make of that what you will. theyre supposed to be the ducks nuts.

[STRAT]

Thanks for that Dumbass and Big Ease

[STRAT]

so far strat following the script, looks to me like the minor wave a of the major WAVE B is close to complete.
terminal diagonal or ascending wedge whatever you want to call it is unfolding with divergence on RSI, and close to 23.6 fib level.
price should now correct lower before rally resumes, still looking to higher levels.yup. down the other side we go:( maybe :D

[STRAT]

Hi Dumbass,
Seems the DOW has moved into a bit of a trading range.
Looking at General; global news etc I suspect we may be heading south. Next support where? Around 6500?

Are we still on the same wave? Would love to see an update of your chart

[dumbass]

hi Strat, i still remain very bullish with target of 10000 + on djia.
The chart below gives a little bit more detail of current count but is for the SPX ( SP500)

major wave A completed with a terminal diagonal at 875,

major wave B currently working out , intermediate A has finished and we are now in an expanding triangle for intermediate wave B , this should finish soon

next wave will take market lower to finish intermediate wave C some time next week

that will be the end of major wave B

market could then enter major wave C , which i will look to enter full position long.

corrections are always difficult to count, sorry about the complexity.

[STRAT]

corrections are always difficult to count, sorry about the complexity.Thanks Dumbass, Thats exactly why I asked. Tried plotting the DOW and now I have these deep red marks on one side of my forehead and lumps of skin under my finger nails :D

[dumbass]

oh my god , swine fever !

[STRAT]

It might be the fever but I have a few dumbass questions. :D

Been gaising at your chart and am having some difficulty seeing wave 1.
What if 3 was the end of wave 1 :eek:
That would make b actually 5 and throw a spanner in the works for sure.

I cant for the life of me see the 5 waves between 5 and A or the 3 waves between A and B either ( looks like 5 to me ) lol :confused:

at least you know Im paying attention :D

[dumbass]

it certainly takes a while strat to see the waves and apply the rules.
i have a reasonable degree of confidence in the count based on the ending diagonal posted below.

i thought this was a text book example.

ending diagonals are special types of waves that occur PRIMARLY IN THE FIFTH WAVE position.They take a wedge shaped pattern with each subwave subdividing into a three.

there is more subtle rules and guidlines in the count but the ending diagonal is the key.

Nothing is ever set in stone so will always have an open mind to other possibilities.

[STRAT]

Thanks Dumbass. I will keep at it. The closeup chart makes it easier to see the 5 waves down between 5 and A so I assume 1 would be clearer enlarged also. Still strugggling with seeing the 3 waves between A and B though

[dumbass]

B wave is not a three wave structure it is an EXPANDING HORIZONTAL TRIANGLE which contains 5 overlapping waves.

A triangle always occurs in the position prior to to the final actionary wave eg WAVE B IN AN A-B -C

[STRAT]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f0/Elliott_wave.svg/250px-Elliott_wave.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Elliott_wave.svg) http://en.wikipedia.org/skins-1.5/common/images/magnify-clip.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Elliott_wave.svg)
From R.N. Elliott's essay, "The Basis of the Wave Principle," October 1940.


Practically all developments which result from (human) socialeconomic processes follow a law that causes them to repeat themselves in similar and constantly recurring series of waves of definite number and pattern. R. N. Elliott's model, in Nature’s Law: The Secret of the Universe says that market prices alternate between five waves and three waves at all degrees within a trend, as the illustration shows. As these waves develop, the larger price patterns unfold in a self-similar fractal (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal) geometry. Within the dominant trend, waves 1, 3, and 5 are "motive" waves, and each motive wave itself subdivides in five waves. Waves 2 and 4 are "corrective" waves, and subdivide in three waves. In a bear market (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bear_market) the dominant trend is downward, so the pattern is reversed—five waves down and three up. Motive waves always move with the trend, while corrective waves move opposite it.

Sorry mate Im more confused now.
I need to do some more reading I think :o

[dumbass]

in the context of your diagram the SP 500 action is as follows

5 waves up finishing with a ending diagonal in 5th wave position (MAJOR WAVE A )

the 3 wave correction in progress (MAJOR WAVE B ) , simple a , probaly expanding triangle wave b , and then a c wave down.

5 waves up ( dow 10 k+ ) (MAJOR WAVE C)

corrections are a bitch truly, the most profitable waves to chase are 5 wave impulsive moves and these are very easy to follow.
triangles are simply where the market moves sideways , they equate to normal triangle patterns eg ascending, descending , symetrical etc.
yes they are 5 waves but the big difference is they overlap not like a 5 wave impulsive move. so you can spot the difference easy.

[STRAT]

in the context of your diagram the SP 500 action is as follows

5 waves up finishing with a ending diagonal in 5th wave position (MAJOR WAVE A )

the 3 wave correction in progress (MAJOR WAVE B ) , simple a , probaly expanding triangle wave b , and then a c wave down.

5 waves up ( dow 10 k+ ) (MAJOR WAVE C)

corrections are a bitch truly, the most profitable waves to chase are 5 wave impulsive moves and these are very easy to follow.
triangles are simply where the market moves sideways , they equate to normal triangle patterns eg ascending, descending , symetrical etc.
yes they are 5 waves but the big difference is they overlap not like a 5 wave impulsive move. so you can spot the difference easy.Thanks again Dumbass,
I didnt expect to master this in a day and am happy to keep working on it.
Appreciate your time and help.

[tricha]

Looks like the punters are steering clear in OZ, but if China comes good. It's going to boom. :p

Sell in May and stay away?



http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45723000/jpg/_45723537_007115305-2.jpg Stocks worldwide have rallied since early March, but can it last?


By Jamie Robertson
Business presenter, BBC World News
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/999999.gif

I hate to put a dampener on the generally celebratory mood of the markets but there is an old aphorism about selling in May and generally making oneself scarce.
If you do, there should be some profits to take with you - assuming you had missed out on the 18-month bear market that preceded this spring.
Since early March there has been a 26% gain the in the Dow, a 21% gain in the FTSE and a 25% rise in the Nikkei.
Some of the emerging markets have done even better: Brazil is up 31%, Russia 36%.
Primarily the markets are reacting to a set of corporate results that really weren't that bad at all: Citigroup, for instance, had a first quarter loss almost half as bad as most analysts had feared.
Corporate results
JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo also impressed investors.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif It's as if investors are suddenly getting to grips with reality http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif


Sejeiro Take****a, Mizuho

In the UK, Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland are the best performers on the FTSE over the last month.
No one expected the oil companies to continue with their run of ever-increasing quarterly profits and this month the falling oil price finally hit them for six.
BP's profits fell 62%, while Shell and Exxon's both dropped 58%.
But bearing in mind they are working through the worst recession in living memory, they are not doing badly at all. Investors have not deserted them and their share prices held steady for April.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45724000/gif/_45724646_stock_mark_bounce_466.gif

Global slowdown
The macro-economic news continues to be depressing, although the markets seized upon the only positive set of industrial production figures to come out of Japan in six months as an excuse to push the Nikkei up 4% in a single session.
So too in the US: while the GDP numbers showed the economy was shrinking at almost exactly the same pace as before Christmas, investors were inspired by a small, 2% increase in consumer spending.
In Germany a GfK survey found consumer confidence remarkably resilient, and there have been some hopeful - but inconclusive - signs of life in the UK and US housing markets.
Japanese stocks, which have been hammered by the collapse in world trade, are seeing something of a rebound which seems independent of the economic climate.
"It's as if investors are suddenly getting to grips with reality," said Sejeiro Take****a, a strategist and director at Mizuho International. "Full year earnings are showing some surprisingly good figures.
"For instance, Honda said this month that it would be back in the black [in profit] in 2010, and the car parts companies are also forecasting good figures," he added.
Chinese economy
Underlying this optimism in Asia is a surge of interest in the Chinese economy.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45723000/jpg/_45723179_007150582-1.jpg Japanese stocks have been buoyed by a rebound in optimism

The Shanghai market had only a modest month, rising just over 4%, but the economists have been waxing lyrical over its fortunes.
Goldman Sachs said mid-month: "China is already on its path towards a growth recovery," and Moody's added "China reaches end of tunnel."
Mr Take****a believes that its recovery will spur on Japanese growth. "This is the most important factor for Japan. China is its biggest direct trading partner and a revival in chemicals, steel and other basic materials will be a huge benefit to Japanese exporters."
Risks
There is a lot that can still go wrong.
The full shock of the mounting unemployment has not yet been felt. Few economists expect those numbers to start levelling out before next year.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45723000/jpg/_45723180_000012393-1.jpg Shares in cities like Prague do not reflect the IMF's concerns

The banks in the US have still got to get through the government stress tests, and credit is still flowing like cold treacle.
Indeed there seems to be a mismatch between what the markets are saying and the economists are forecasting.
For an example look no further than Eastern Europe.
According to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest report, the best performing country will be Poland with GDP falling by 0.7% this year. The Czech Republic will contract by 3.5% in 2009. Hungary will contract this year and next, Bulgaria's GDP will fall by 2%.
So, how have their respective stock markets been faring in April, the month the report came out?
Poland is up 20.7%, the Czech Republic up 17.5%, Hungary up 16.3%, and to cap them all Bulgaria is up 28%.
Maybe the IMF has got it all wrong. Maybe the markets are taking the long view. Or maybe May really would be a good month to go away.

[tricha]

WELL, 2 sides to this coin, backed out on Friday to go back to around 65% cash, just to cover my bases.
If I had any sense I should stay out till August, but .............

Jim Rogers Hyperinflation will consume us ...America is counting its last Breaths ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqQnScNE78s&feature=related (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqQnScNE78s&feature=related)

[Hoop]

my old post #199 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=197137#post197137) from when to re-enter the market thread may be of interest.

With such a bad October to March period one would wonder if investors have accumulated enough profit to sell in May and go away this year.

[Hoop]

Sell in May or stay to play (http://www.marketwatch.com/NewsCommentary/TradingStrategies)

[winner69]

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2009/05/01/sell-in-may-and-go-away.aspx

[STRAT]

Sell in May or stay to play (http://www.marketwatch.com/NewsCommentary/TradingStrategies)lol Good to see the experts are all in agreement :eek:


not

[tricha]

lol Good to see the experts are all in agreement :eek:


not

Not



European economy 'will shrink 4%'


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45389000/jpg/_45389646_006746323-1.jpg Commissioner Joaquin Almunia predicts recovery in 2010

EU economies will contract by 4% this year, the European Commission has forecast, in a massive revision from its earlier prediction. The worsening of the global financial crisis, dropping levels of world trade and continuing house value falls had prompted the downgrade, it said.
Europe's economy would not start recovering until the second half of next year, the commission added.
It also predicted unemployment in the 27-nation EU would reach 10.9% in 2010.
The jobless figure would be 11.5% across the 16 countries using the euro, known as the eurozone, it added.
'Exceptional circumstances'
"The European economy is in the midst of its deepest and most widespread recession in the post-war era," said EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, Joaquin Almunia.
"But the ambitious measures taken by governments and central banks in these exceptional circumstances are expected to put a floor under the fall in economic activity this year and enable a recovery next year."
Countries needed to focus on cleaning up banks' toxic assets, he added.
The commission's forecast is not as bleak as the outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - which says eurozone GDP will fall by 4.2% this year.
However it is less optimistic than the European Central Bank which forecast a 3.8% contraction in its latest estimate.
In January, the commission had predicted the eurozone would shrink by 1.9% in 2009 and grow by 0.4% in 2010.
As well as the downward revision for this year, it now expects the eurozone economy to shrink by 0.1% next year.
Irish woes
The commission expects inflation to fall well below the European Central Bank's target of 2%.
It projects inflation to slow to 0.4% this year from 3.3% in 2008, and to rise to only 1.2% in 2010.
While the downturn was widespread, the extent of economic contraction varied between nations.
Germany, Europe's biggest economy, is expected to contract 5.4% this year, while the UK and Italy are expected to shrink by between 4% and 4.5%.
However the once-booming Irish economy will see a 9% drop and Latvia will shrink by 13.1%, the commission said.
"The main factors behind the recession are the worsening of the global financial crisis, a sharp contraction in world trade and ongoing housing market corrections in some economies," the commission said in a statement.

[tricha]

Take 2 and be wary of getting slam dunked ;)

Australian economy lurches downward

2:30PM Monday May 04, 2009

http://media.nzherald.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/Australia_map_std8.jpg


SYDNEY - Housing price and job ads figures released today confirmed the gloomy state of the Australian economy.
The price of established houses fell by 2.2 per cent between the December and March quarters.
It was the fourth quarterly fall in a row and brought the rate of decline to 6.7 per cent over the year to the March quarter, from 3.9 per cent.
The figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)also showed project home prices fell by 0.5 per cent in the quarter, ending a run of small rises, with annual growth slowing to 2.2 per cent - less than the headline inflation rate of 2.5 per cent - from 4.5 per cent previously.
The significance of the deflation in housing prices extends beyond the housing sector, because asset prices, including housing and shares, are important drivers of the economic cycle.
As such, they confirm negative influences dominate the outlook for the Australian economy and warn an upturn, at least not a vigorous one, is not about to get under way.

%3Cbody%3E%3Cdiv%20id%3D%22adDiv%22%3E%3Cspan%20cl ass%3D%22advertisment-heading%22%3EAdvertisement%3C/span%3E%3Cspan%20class%3D%22advertisment-heading%22%3EAdvertisement%3C/span%3E%3C/div%3E
AdvertisementAdvertisement


The impact of the recession was evident in another data set released today.
The ANZ job advertisement series showed at 7.5 per cent fall in April, with ads in newspapers up by 3.1 per cent and internet ads dropping 8.1 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms.
The trend is clearly downward, falling by 7.1 per cent per month according to the ANZ's calculations to be down by 48.3 per cent from a year before.
The official jobs figures from the ABS are due on Thursday.
The monthly figures are inherently volatile and therefore hard to predict.
Still, figures like the ANZ's, combined with the ongoing contraction in the economy, mean there is a growing likelihood of confidence sapping shocks in the form of sudden, sharp falls of well over 50,000 in the monthly level of employment reported by the ABS.

[The Big Ease]

Technically The Market is looking very Bullish, Broken Resistance Cleanly today, lets hope US and International Markets Follow Suit.

Next Target Red Line. - Resistance.

Top Blue Line = Broken Resistance - Should now act as Support.

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/xao_ax_price_daily02may08_to_18m-4.png
http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/xao_ax_price_daily02may08_to_18m-5.png
aussie market just playing catch up.
It will be interesting to see where the US market goes today.
UK is closed. Holiday.

EDIT: 2% plus on the DJI.
The stress test results seem to have been trickled out to let people know there arent any terrible surprises.

[macduffy]

Dow up strongly overnight.

Aussie banks holding their own, BHP/RIO up strongly.

What's holding the Aussie market back today?

:confused:

[macduffy]

Australia is waiting to see if NZO will make the country a takeover offer. :eek:

disc - just my warped opinion ;) lol

Fair comment!

I realise my question was akin to asking the meaning of life.

:D

[Dr_Who]

Dow up strongly overnight.

Aussie banks holding their own, BHP/RIO up strongly.

What's holding the Aussie market back today?

:confused:

I think is a combination of profit taking after a healthy rally and the RB holding interested the same. ;)

[dumbass]

Starting to show some signs that the party is about to finish , i think caution is required.

[The Big Ease]

what are these signs dumbass?
The only one I can see is that everyone seems to be jumping on the wagon.

[STRAT]

what are these signs dumbass?
The only one I can see is that everyone seems to be jumping on the wagon.Thats a sign right there TBE :D

[STRAT]

Starting to show some signs that the party is about to finish , i think caution is required.Party over and into the next wave down before a rise to 10500 or end of the world? :eek:

Must say my DOW chart is looking pretty strong. Cant post it though. Share Trader wont let me upload anything right now

[dumbass]

hey strat, reworked the count and concluded we are still in the major A wave up which i think will finish very soon.
there are multiple timeframe bearish divergences appearing as well as some interesting wave relationships.
on the weekly the rally is the most overbought since the bear market began
there is a major trendline approaching and channel line coming into play.
and as you rightly indicated there is a mounting bullish sentiment.

i do apologise but i cant be arsed to post a chart but will do it in the next day or two.

[STRAT]

hey strat, reworked the count and concluded we are still in the major A wave up which i think will finish very soon.
there are multiple timeframe bearish divergences appearing as well as some interesting wave relationships.
on the weekly the rally is the most overbought since the bear market began
there is a major trendline approaching and channel line coming into play.
and as you rightly indicated there is a mounting bullish sentiment.

i do apologise but i cant be arsed to post a chart but will do it in the next day or two.Look forward to it. No pressure lol.
Im off to bed anyway. Up at 5am tomorrow :eek:
Looking at the DOW I dont see an overbought scenario in the indicators yet other than a drop in volume so I suspect this will turn out to be another learning experience :D

[The Big Ease]

the rally has further to go imo.
if the market wanted a reason to drop, there have been plenty over the last 2 weeks.
swine flu, stress test speculation, BoA needing 35bill etc

the market just keeps going and going.

[tricha]

the rally has further to go imo.
if the market wanted a reason to drop, there have been plenty over the last 2 weeks.
swine flu, stress test speculation, BoA needing 35bill etc

the market just keeps going and going.

Yeah but Big Ease there is very little good news, hence this is a classic Bear Trap :( This is where your torn pants gets ripped to shreads.:eek:



Sales slump doubles losses at GM


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45740000/jpg/_45740315_007246636-1.jpg GM has a 1 June deadline to come up with a restructuring plan.

Troubled US carmaker General Motors has announced a loss of $6bn (£3.98bn) for the first three months of this year as a massive slump in sales hit revenues. The loss is almost double the $3.3bn loss recorded a year earlier, while revenue of $22.4bn is almost half that posted in the first quarter of 2008.
The company also said it burned through $10.2bn of cash in its attempts to stave of bankruptcy.
The carmaker has taken billions of dollars in aid from the US government.
'Vicious circle'
GM has a 1 June deadline to come up with a restructuring plan. If it fails to do so it will be forced to file for bankruptcy protection.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif We increasingly believe GM may emerge substantially stronger from a bankruptcy - provided the process is not overly drawn out http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif


Himanshu Patel of JP Morgan Chase

The firm said that during the first three months of the year it cut global production by more than 900,000 vehicles, or 40%, as it tried to reduce both costs and inventories.
"We're focusing very much on the cost side of the business but once you start losing revenues you get into a vicious circle from which you can't recover," said GM's chief financial offer Ray Young.
GM has so far been given more than $15bn of US government loans.
Mr Young added that if GM needs to go into bankruptcy protection, "it is an imperative for us to go in and out quickly".
Car industry analyst Himanshu Patel of JP Morgan Chase said the likelihood of GM going into bankruptcy protection was between 60-80%.
"While the GM equity today is largely un-investable, we increasingly believe GM may emerge substantially stronger from a bankruptcy - provided the process is not overly drawn out," he added.

[The Big Ease]

i guess it depends on how you look at it.

it might be considered good news that libor is down to "normal" and the economic numbers coming through arent as bad as they were or as bad as expected.

It is yet to be seen though. Long way to go yet.

[Hoop]

Many are nervous at this moment because of the rather unexpected larger than anticipated rally. Many had a mindset of an L shaped apathetic shift up off the bottom with a bottom retest and possible failure of that retest resulting in a new bottom being formed.

Instead we got a bullish V shape rally.

Damn.. what a shame :D:D:D:D$$$

[Dr_Who]

Yep, expect a V shape recover follow by inflation next year. :)

[STRAT]

All I know is if this is a bear rally then its a bloody good one :D This is fast turning out to be my best year ever.

( to put that in context Ive only been doing it for 4 years lol )

[STRAT]

Its not a good one. A good one will be a 50% increase. I think we are only at 25%Thats great news KW :D

[lissica]

If history shows anything, its that the market does the exact opposite of majority opinion. So if we are all expecting a bear rally then this will turn out to be the new bull. If we are all expecting a L recovery, we will get a V.

I had a look at the last 30 odd years of market performances, and where there has been two really crap years, the next year often has a 50% rebound, followed by a 10% drop the year after that. Then up and down for a few years, before the real bull takes hold and the market takes off in some form of irrational exuberance.

Totally agree. It was less than 2yrs ago when everyone in the Australian media were saying it's a matter of time before the S&P 200 breaches 7000. Look what happened immediately after.

Personally, I'm glad people are still expecting this to be a bear rally

(*concentrates really hard on bearish thoughts*) ^_^

[Mick100]

If history shows anything, its that the market does the exact opposite of majority opinion. So if we are all expecting a bear rally then this will turn out to be the new bull. If we are all expecting a L recovery, we will get a V.

.

Yes - one thing that all the analysts are in agreement on currently is that this is a bear market rally - so expect something else

It could be a bear market rally which lasts for 2-3 yrs

[dumbass]

Its not a good one. A good one will be a 50% increase. I think we are only at 25%

really your talking retracements , the sp 500 has actual rallied 40% from the march low.

[Dr_Who]

Wow this is a bull market. All overseas market are running strong. :eek:

[STRAT]

Hi Dumbass.
Do I have this right?
bear 5 down 3 up
bull 5 up 3 down

So the bottom is found in the middle of a 5 down 5 up formation?

[STRAT]

looks like this rally is gaining strength to me.

Thanks Wallmart:rolleyes:

[STRAT]

the rest of it.
Couple of notes
ADX shows a gain in the strength of the current uptrend by turning around the 28th April.
MacD giving the usual mixed signals along the way
While volume has increased over the last week there have been as many down days as up
Relative Strength has stayed up all the way through
The dip around the 20th April which at the time looked like a change in direction was upon us did not drop below the moving averages used.

[STRAT]

One more

Weekly candle chart is a lovely shade of blue :D

While stalling around the 24th April it has regained momentum. Most shadows long below and short on top as momentum was lost through the middle of the chart showing buyers still in control.

[STRAT]

Others thoughts appreciated.

Even better if Phardrus and AA would like to mark my paper :D

Dumbass I know this goes against your recent post yes/maybe.
Your thoughts would also be appreciated.

[Ketel One]

Others thoughts appreciated.

Even better if Phardrus and AA would like to mark my paper :D

Dumbass I know this goes against your recent post yes/maybe.
Your thoughts would also be appreciated.

Hey Strat,

I'm a beginner when it comes to TA, but one thing i've read is that complexity often doesn't give increased depth of insight. I find it a little hard to follow your charts, partly perhaps because of the way ST deals with attachments (too small!), but also because there's a whole bunch of stuff going on in them. Do you need the moving averages in all of them when trying to show trendlines etc?

One of the things I really like about Phaedrus/AA's charts is the simplicity with which they show whichever trend they're highlighting. Kind of like they're getting rid of all the unimportant noise to focus on the trend that matters.

[STRAT]

Hi Ketel,
Im no old hand myself.
In full size its a lot easier to read cause theres nothing complicated in there but I for the life of me cant figure out how to make em bigger. ( Ive given up trying too )
Personally I mostly just use trend lines, moving averages and volume on a daily basis ( plus candles more and more ). Im testing all the available indicators as I go. As I learn about each one I apply them to see if they would have helped me in retrospect and if I find they would have I use them as an addition for making a buy or sell decision. I expect to use most of them less as time goes by but feel compelled to understand them whether they are useful or not. As a rule of thumb I have found all have merit depending on the circumstances they are being used in.

To be honest Im too lazy to remove stuff as I update every day and am not totally up to speed on the saving projects part of the program. If by clutter you mean all the vertical lines they are just markers for indicators firing. ( green for positive and red for negative ) I have added a chart for each indicator. Each chart shows an indicator and the main chart but also all the trigger points for all the indicators used.
If the friggin things would just upload full size Im sure that would help. Or as Tricha would say

If the friggin things would just upload full size :D

Then I could just post one chart with all the indicators underneath :(

[Phaedrus]

While this might be an interesting speculative topic, at a practical level the question is not worth asking because it really doesn't matter. In any case, right now, no-one can say. In time the answer will become quite apparent, but in the meantime all any of us can do is guess.

To my mind, there are four important questions we need to ask ourselves :-

(1) Is the Dow in an uptrend?
(2) Is this rally bigger than any previous rally?
(3) Should we be invested right now?
(4) Should we be cautious?

Answers :- Yes,Yes, Yes and Yes.

Why waste time and effort quibbling over semantics?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/DJInd59.gif

[Ketel One]

Hi Ketel,
If by clutter you mean all the vertical lines they are just markers for indicators firing. ( green for positive and red for negitive ) I have added a chart for each indicator. Each chart shows an indicator and the main chart but also all the trigger points for all the indicators used.

Ahh, was wondering what the red/green lines are, makes more sense now.

For bigger images, have you tried something like http://iforce.co.nz/? Just go to the site, click browse, find the image you want to upload, click ok. Then just copy/paste the link it gives you into here (it gives you one with img tags already around it for pasting into forums like this).

[STRAT]

Ahh, was wondering what the red/green lines are, makes more sense now.

For bigger images, have you tried something like http://iforce.co.nz/? Just go to the site, click browse, find the image you want to upload, click ok. Then just copy/paste the link it gives you into here (it gives you one with img tags already around it for pasting into forums like this).The charts I post are from my PC. Guess I will have to join some damn Pic site like face book or something lol

[STRAT]

Why waste time and effort quibbling over semantics?

Hi Phaedrus,
I guess because its possibly a useful learning exercise but mostly just because its fun :D
My initial reason for starting the thread was just to get a feel for and collect the thoughts of others at the time. Didnt expect it to go past half a dozern posts.

Its by no means lost on me what is possibly the single most important point made on this thread being that it doesnt matter.
There are always stocks going up and down what ever is happening withn the market overall.

[Ketel One]

The charts I post are from my PC. Guess I will have to join some damn Pic site like face book or something lol

Yup it's for uploading pics from your PC. Works almost identically to uploading them to ST... take a look, it's very simple.

[STRAT]

Yup it's for uploading pics from your PC. Works almost identically to uploading them to ST... take a look, it's very simple.Grrrrr. OK I will :D

Thanks Ketel

ps Promised myself I would never............

and facebook is on that list along with twitter and other cybre b@ll****

[Dr_Who]

Why waste time and effort quibbling over semantics?



Couldnt have said it better myself.

Too much hot air and not enough action from some posters in here. You gotta be in it to win it.

[Corporate]

This question is not worth asking. Right now, no-one can say. In time the answer will become quite apparent, but in the meantime all any of us can do is guess.

To my mind, there are three important questions we need to ask ourselves :-

(1) Is the Dow in an uptrend?
(2) Is this rally bigger than any previous rally?
(3) Should we be invested right now?

Answers :- Yes, Yes and Yes.

Why waste time and effort quibbling over semantics?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/DJInd59.gif

Love your posts P. So simple, yet so right.

Appreciate your input to this site.

[tricha]

"Originally Posted by Phaedrus http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=254706#post254706)
This question is not worth asking. Right now, no-one can say. In time the answer will become quite apparent, but in the meantime all any of us can do is guess.

To my mind, there are three important questions we need to ask ourselves :-

(1) Is the Dow in an uptrend?
(2) Is this rally bigger than any previous rally?
(3) Should we be invested right now?

Answers :- Yes, Yes and Yes."

Oh the "Mighty One" has spoken, the 1st call I have ever seen you make and guess what ? beware folks, this could be a bare trap from hell and you do not want greed to get the better of you, do you.
Just to get another spanking, all fundamentals are pointing to nothing has changed for the better.
The only thing that will save the ASX is China, can you bet on it ? The US is stuffed, the cubboard is bare, all ATM's empty.

Bear Market Rallies Spark False Confidence

BY TIM W. WOOD | may 8, 2009 http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wood/images/twood.jpg


Since the March 6th intra-day low at 6,469.95 the Dow Jones Industrials have advanced 32.79% into their recent high at 8,587.55. The Transports bottomed on March 9th at 2,134.21 and have advanced 59.70% into their recent intra-day high at 3,408.28. During this time the S&P 500 has advanced 37.9% and the Nasdaq 100 also advanced some 37.9% into its recent highs. Then, there is the CRB Index which is up some 20% from its February lows and crude oil, which is now up from its February low some 68%. Yippee! Obama has saved the world. The job numbers were better than expected. The bear market has ended and the economy is now on its way to recovery.
NO!!! What we are seeing is a bear market rally. The Obama team thinks their efforts are beginning to save the world and the general public is being lulled to sleep thinking that the worst is behind us. This is not the case. I told my subscribers that there were higher degree cycle lows expected in March and from a Dow theory perspective, I anticipated this to coincide with secondary low points. Regardless of what label we put on the March lows, the rally continues and the longer it does, the more false confidence it will foster.
Robert Rhea, the great Dow theorist of the 1930’s wrote: “It is almost certain that a panic rebound will recover 40 percent or more of the preceding decline.” Mr. Rhea goes on to say “Whenever a panic decline occurs, the market thereafter seems to need a resting period during which it appraises the damage to its structure. Prices frequently back and fill for several months in such areas. The action somewhat resembles that of a pendulum which, oscillating slowly as it seeks equilibrium, gradually comes to rest. The direction taken after equilibrium is attained is generally significant.”
William Peter Hamilton, who began working with Charles H. Dow in 1899 and carried the Dow theory torch until his death in 1929, wrote: “What it (Dow’s theory) predicts is absolutely nothing. It says that the wind is blowing up or down the financial hill, not how long it will blow….”
Based on my work, I believe that we are seeing a “resting period” just as Mr. Rhea talked about, and that the market is appraising the damage to its structure. While the Dow theory does not tell us how long the bear market is apt to last, when I look at the structural/technical damage that has been done from a cyclical perspective, which has absolutely nothing to do with Dow theory, it tells me that this bear market is not over and that we are merely seeing a bear market rally.
It has been a while since I’ve written about this here, but when I look at the traditional secular bull and bear market relationships of the past, this too tells me that this secular bear market is not over. Here’s why. The Bull and Bear markets of the late 1800’s and very early 1900’s that Mr. Dow and Hamilton wrote about were one and the same as the upward and downward movements of a single 4-year cycle. As our country grew and more people were drawn to the market place, the Bull and Bear market periods became longer. Bull and Bear markets evolved from being single 4-year cycle events into a series of multiple 4-year cycle periods. This historical relationship can be used to help us gain an expectation as to when this bear market may be over.
For example, the Bull market from 1921 to 1929 was the first secular bull market to consist of two 4-year cycles. The low in November 1929 was a 4-year cycle low. The rally, “Secondary Reaction,” that followed was the upside of a 4-year cycle that topped in only 5 months. Once this “Secondary Reaction” was over, the DJIA moved down below the previous 4-year cycle low and into the 1932 4-year cycle low, which proved to be the Bear market bottom. In this case, the bear market consisted of a single 4-year cycle, which was another first in history. Also, in spite of the fact that this bull and bear market was the first in history to consist of multiple 4-year cycles, the bear market decline into 1932 still measured in at 37.5% of the duration of the preceding bull market, which was consistent with previous bear markets.
The next great Bull market began with the 4-year cycle low in 1942 and ran to the 4-year cycle top in 1966. This time the “Primary” Bull market was comprised of a series of six 4-year cycles, over a 24 year period. The Bear market that followed also grew to be a series of two 4-year cycles making the bear market that followed an 8 year affair with a duration of 33% of the preceding bull market.
As I see it, the last great Bull market began at the 1974 low and ran into the 2007 high, which was a period of 33 years. Some may argue that the bull market began at the 1982 low, but the actual price low occurred in 1974 so I prefer to use that point. But if we measure from the 1982 low the bull market was still 25 years in duration. If the historical relationships with the bear market running approximately one-third the duration of the preceding bull market is to hold this time around, then the bear market would be expected to run some 8 to 11 years depending on where you want to begin your count. In either case with us just now in the 19th month since the October 2007 top it should be obvious by this measure that the bear market is likely not over.
Also, another historical marker of secular bear markets, as expressed by Richard Russell, is value. Historically, the dividend yield will be roughly equal to the price earnings ratio at secular bear market bottoms. I have used the S&P data here because I did not have this data as far back on the Industrials. At the 1932 bear market bottom the yield was 10.50% and the P/E was just under 10. At the 1942 bear market bottom the yield was 8.71% and the P/E was 7.3. At the next great bear market bottom in 1974 the yield was 5.9% and with a P/E of 7.24. If we take this same reading at the 1982 low the yield was 6.2% and the P/E was 6.9. Presently, the yield on the S&P is at 2.62 and the P/E sits at 58.97. Yeah, I know that many of the analysts show the P/E on the S&P to be in the 20 to 21 range. That is bogus. Those numbers are based on the so-called “operating price earnings.” The P/E based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles is 58.97 and that is the same measure as has been used throughout history. The so-called operating price earnings is a measure that became popular in the 1990’s as we moved into the George Orwellian socialist society of today. In any event, based on the real P/E as is represented by GAAP it is safe to say that the P/E and the dividend yield are nowhere near par, and as a result this data also suggests that the March low was NOT the bear market bottom.
So, whether I look at the statistical data, the cyclical data, the historical relationships between bull and bear markets or the historical measures of value as have been seen at every secular bear market, the data all points to the same conclusion. The bear market is not over. Obama and the rest of the Hee Haw gang have not saved the market. This is a bear market rally and the longer it lasts, the more people it will ultimately suck in and crush in the end. That is, after all, what bear markets do. The key in my eyes are the statistics, Dow theory confirmations and the cyclical structure of the market, and more importantly my Cycle Turn Indicator, which not only guided me beautifully down into the March 2009 low, but also identified the March 2009 low. Until it turns down, this counter-trend rally will remain intact and higher prices will remain possible.
Tim W. Wood

[STRAT]

Oh the "Mighty One" has spoken, the 1st call I have ever seen you make and guess what ?

Geez Tricha.
Mate, I assume this is just another jab in the ribs but Im starting to wonder if you will ever get this.

Thats not a call or a prediction. Its a statement about right now. TA doesnt work like that.

[Phaedrus]

1st call I have ever seen you make Read my post again Tricha. I haven't made a "call". I don't do "calls". I was simply commenting on the current state of the market. Can you see the difference? Strat can.

Tricha, did you read my post on page 3 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6769&page=3) of this thread? Did you understand it? You DO realise I hope, that at source, the topic under discussion here is the length of the downtrend that must inevitably follow the current uptrend. If the Dow drops below 6547 we have an on-going Bear market and if it doesn't, the Bottom is already in. Capiche?

It really doesn't matter if you don't read or understand my posts Tricha, but you should at least read and try to understand the "expert" opinions that you so liberally "cut and paste" here on ST as the main constituent of your posts. You seem to think that the opinions expressed by Tim W. Wood in your latest cut-and-paste effort somehow contradict mine. I hate to break this to you, but they don't! Here are a few key points :-

Tim :- "What we are seeing is a bear market rally".
Me :- "I ...... consider it to be a bear market rally"

Tim :- "Regardless of what label we put on the March lows, the rally continues"
Me :- "The Dow is in an uptrend"

Tim :- (Quoted) “What it (Dow’s theory) predicts is absolutely nothing. It says that the wind is blowing up or down the financial hill, not how long it will blow….”
Me :- "I see no value in trying to make a "call" as such". "I don't do predictions". I have NEVER made a "call" as to how long I think the current uptrend will last. Nor have I EVER made a "call" as to how long I think the subsequent downtrend will last. Why? Because I haven't got a clue. Neither has anyone else.

Tim :- "Dow theory does not tell us how long the bear market is apt to last"
Me :- "What do I care how far the subsequent downtrend runs?"

Tim :- "Until (my Cycle Indicator) turns down, this counter-trend rally will remain intact and higher prices will remain possible".
Me :- "What I see is an uptrend with trading potential".

Tim :- "This is a bear market rally and the longer it lasts, the more people it will ultimately suck in and crush in the end".
Me :- "Bear rally or bottom, either way this uptrend WILL peter out."

Tim :- "Bear Market Rallies Spark False Confidence"
Me :- "Should we be cautious?" Answer :- "Yes".

[tricha]

Tricha what is the average P/E Ratio for the ASX Currently.

Thanks in advance.

I do not know AA, does anyone out there, more importantly, what are the future P.E"s
For the likes of BHP, forward projections look poor.
And this company is a big part of the ASX and will flow down into the wider economy. It all hinges on China.


Taken of ASB = P.E Current 12.4 2009 15.2 2010 20.2

Is there any really good news to support a rally ?

[shasta]

I do not know AA, does anyone out there, more importantly, what are the future P.E"s
For the likes of BHP, forward projections look poor.
And this company is a big part of the ASX and will flow down into the wider economy. It all hinges on China.


Taken of ASB = P.E Current 12.4 2009 15.2 2010 20.2

Is there any really good news to support a rally ?

What about the other countries that form BRIC?

India is resource hungry just like China!

[tricha]

Read my post again Tricha. I haven't made a "call". I don't do "calls". I was simply commenting on the current state of the market. Can you see the difference? Strat can.

Tricha, did you read my post on page 3 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6769&page=3) of this thread? Did you understand it? You DO realise I hope, that at source, the topic under discussion here is the length of the downtrend that must inevitably follow the current uptrend. If the Dow drops below 6547 we have an on-going Bear market and if it doesn't, the Bottom is already in. Capiche?

It really doesn't matter if you don't read or understand my posts Tricha, but you should at least read and try to understand the "expert" opinions that you so liberally "cut and paste" here on ST as the main constituent of your posts. You seem to think that the opinions expressed by Tim W. Wood in your latest cut-and-paste effort somehow contradict mine. I hate to break this to you, but they don't! Here are a few key points :-

Tim :- "What we are seeing is a bear market rally".
Me :- "I ...... consider it to be a bear market rally"

Tim :- "Regardless of what label we put on the March lows, the rally continues"
Me :- "The Dow is in an uptrend"

Tim :- (Quoted) “What it (Dow’s theory) predicts is absolutely nothing. It says that the wind is blowing up or down the financial hill, not how long it will blow….”
Me :- "I see no value in trying to make a "call" as such". "I don't do predictions". I have NEVER made a "call" as to how long I think the current uptrend will last. Nor have I EVER made a "call" as to how long I think the subsequent downtrend will last. Why? Because I haven't got a clue. Neither has anyone else.

Tim :- "Dow theory does not tell us how long the bear market is apt to last"
Me :- "What do I care how far the subsequent downtrend runs?"

Tim :- "Until (my Cycle Indicator) turns down, this counter-trend rally will remain intact and higher prices will remain possible".
Me :- "What I see is an uptrend with trading potential".

Tim :- "This is a bear market rally and the longer it lasts, the more people it will ultimately suck in and crush in the end".
Me :- "Bear rally or bottom, either way this uptrend WILL peter out."

Tim :- "Bear Market Rallies Spark False Confidence"
Me :- "Should we be cautious?" Answer :- "Yes".

We agree on one thing Phaedrus and everyone should be very aware of it,
Me :- "Bear rally or bottom, either way this uptrend WILL peter out." and Me :- "Should we be cautious?" Answer :- "Yes".

I would state it a bit different, everyone should be very cautious and have a plan for when it turns, because the turn will most likely be very sudden and happen in the USA 1st.
Because Phaedrus is not going to save you, he only calls the past and does not make a call for the future. Because of Phaedrus's experience he will be out while u r still thinking about it.
My plan is I've already pre-empted what could happen and now maintain around a 50% cash\shares ratio, quite happen with the gains.

Were u buying PPP Phaedrus, when u were advertising a down trend :confused:

PPP back to 31.5 cents plus 3 cents dividend. Downtrend no, just a correction and another buying opportunity ;)

I don't face a dilemma here Tricha. You do!

The problem :- You hold PPP, a stock in a downtrend that you value at 41 cents, while the market values it at 29 cents.
What to do?
Buy more - average down?
Sell at a loss?
Hold a falling stock?
Do nothing - and hope?
None of these options are very good, Tricha. You face a real dilemma here!

[dumbass]

Hi Dumbass.
Do I have this right?
bear 5 down 3 up
bull 5 up 3 down

So the bottom is found in the middle of a 5 down 5 up formation?

A bear market is three major wave structure.
Major wave A down
Wave A

Major wave B up target 10k +

Major wave C back down

Wave B


Lack of pullbacks in this rally suggests we are still in intermediate wave a of major wave B
i reckon this may be coming to an end soon.
channel hit , wave price showing symmetry , indicators diverging etc

market needs a retracement which im expecting soon but still big picture bullish for main target.

[Phaedrus]

Were u buying PPP Phaedrus, when u were advertising a down trend? No. You keep asking me this and I keep explaining that I don't buy downtrending stocks. It is bad practice.


PPP back to 31.5 cents... Downtrend no, just another buying opportunity Nah. PPP is in an UPTREND. The buying opportunity was back in March when PPP triggered a swag of Buy signals at around 29 cents.

I have no desire to contribute further to the PPP thread, Tricha. The stark difference between our approaches to this stock is summarised here. (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=242032)

[Footsie]

i have found that the best way to trade and invest is to Ignore the media

Do your own analysis based on charts and fundamentals.

Turn off CNBC talking heads.
Dont believe what you read in the papers
Dont listen to others.
Definitely dont listen to your broker(better still, dont have a broker)

That way you will develop an impartial view.

Occasionally, I like to listen to marc Faber and of course read the odd post on here.
The best book you can read is market wizards. (assuming you've dealt with all the basic knowledge first)

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Footsie How do you do away with a broker & deal with NZX & ASX

[AMR]

i have found that the best way to trade and invest is to Ignore the media

Do your own analysis based on charts and fundamentals.

Turn off CNBC talking heads.
Dont believe what you read in the papers
Dont listen to others.
Definitely dont listen to your broker(better still, dont have a broker)

That way you will develop an impartial view.

Occasionally, I like to listen to marc Faber and of course read the odd post on here.
The best book you can read is market wizards. (assuming you've dealt with all the basic knowledge first)

Very good post Footsie.

All those media articles do nothing for your state of mind and simply fill you with bias.

[Ketel One]

Footsie How do you do away with a broker & deal with NZX & ASX

I assume he means using something like an online broker (DB/ASB securities) so there's no interaction between you and the broker other than the necessary mechanics of buying/selling online etc.

[Footsie]

Possum
Online of course.

Why?
1) Phone is too slow. Need speed.
2) I no longer have to "justify my trade" to a broker
3) cheaper of course.

[Dr_Who]

Having a full broker is useful that they provide good research report.

A good research report is worth the extra fee I pay.

[stevo1]

This is a link to an interview by John Authers of the Financial Times

http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-11dc-b971-0000779fd2ac.html

which may be of interest

[bermuda]

Having a full broker is useful that they provide good research report.

A good research report is worth the extra fee I pay.

My good Doctor,
A good research report is one that that has been prepared by yourself. Please dont take too much notice of Broker reports. They will make you broke.

Do your own research and profit accordingly. A Broker, or Analyst has too many other things going on to ever stumble on some of the gems that guys and gals on these forums have got access to.

By the time that a broker or an Analyst gets hold of an upcoming stock, you and I will have already enjoyed a 2-3 bagger.

[digger]

With a broker you can never be sure whos pay he or she is working for.And it is probably some company so you are often the shafted party.I have listen to brokers but the final say is mine.

[easy money]

Amen to that.

[Snapper]

Based on a strong recommendation to buy from FNZC and a 15 page research report I bought RJT at 95c. Currently in a semi-permanent trading halt at 0.9c. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh !!!!

[STRAT]

Haha,
I dont know any Brokers but from what yall are saying I take it that a Broker does just that? Makes you broker

[Dr_Who]

The way I look at it, if a broker was any good at picking stocks, he'd be retired and living in the south of france with his own private jet :-)



This sounds Bernand Madoff. LOL

I usually use the brokers research as a reference to compare my own numbers. It is important to have comparison and know what the other views are.

[tricha]

I keep looking for good news :( and it keeps telling me it is a Bear Rally.


Business

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Page last updated at 10:37 GMT, Tuesday, 12 May 2009 11:37 UK
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Electronics maker Hitachi reports a record annual loss by a Japanese manufacturer, after a drop in demand for its products.
Hitachi to split core businesses (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7945918.stm)
Hitachi to cut up to 7,000 jobs (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7859913.stm)
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45369000/jpg/_45369784_chinaport66.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8045208.stm) http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif Sharp fall in exports from China (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8045208.stm)

China's exports in April were down 22.6% from a year ago, figures show, the sixth successive month of decline.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45763000/jpg/_45763207_000974703-1.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8045166.stm) http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif Downturn pushes Nissan into loss (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8045166.stm)

Japanese carmaker Nissan reports a net loss for the past year, but the results are better than expected.

[Hoop]

I keep looking for good news :( and it keeps telling me it is a Bear Rally.

Tricha
You not looking very hard are you? Type in good news into Google...no I'm not kidding
you need to balance your reading.

At the top of the Google Good News subjects is Good News Network. Click on this link to get into Good News Network Business (http://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/business/) and you will see that the world is still turning.
The bad news is its a subscription site...It seems you have to pay to read good news now ...damn I feel pessimistic again:(;)

Click here if you are not a pessimist (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&rlz=1B2GGFB_enNZ226&ei=_OUJStnHM8WCkQW_mJWfCw&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=1&ct=result&cd=1&q=new+bull+market&spell=1)

[The Big Ease]

Economic Recovery (http://news.google.com.au/news?um=1&ned=au&hl=en&q=economic+recovery)

Check this out everyday because it is one of the few options you have.
Bad news sells more papers.

[fungus pudding]

Actually its a well known psychological phenomenon - when things are bad, people tend to only believe information that reinforces the negative, and disregard the positive.


It is a well known phenomenon that when making things up it is a good idea to declare it to bbe well known, to make the doubter believe he is ignorant of the facts and shouldn't doubt the premise.

[Dr_Who]

I keep looking for good news :( and it keeps telling me it is a Bear Rally.



The market is pricing in the shares for the next year or two and not on current news.

You will also find that alot of institutions and individuals who are short or under weight in this market are caught with their pants down climbing over eachother to get set, hence the market is running hard.

Human behaviour are like a herd of sheep.

[Financially dependant]

I didnt make anything up. Go do a psychology degree and then comment.

For the record the "well known psychological phenomenon" is called cognitive dissonance.

"Cognitive dissonance relates to the concept of being exposed to information or having experiences that conflict with our existing base of “what we know.” The theory holds that our minds are not always flexible or rational when it comes to evaluating uncomfortable information or questioning our own beliefs.

The theory holds that “dissonant cognitions” will cause us to dismiss or alter conflicting information or add justification to one side or the other—not necessarily rationally—in order to regain psychological balance. It’s an important concept to consider in terms of the way people block things out or justify things to themselves."

Agree KW...Think global warming, peak oil..........

[fungus pudding]

I didnt make anything up. Go do a psychology degree and then comment.

For the record the "well known psychological phenomenon" is called cognitive dissonance.

"Cognitive dissonance relates to the concept of being exposed to information or having experiences that conflict with our existing base of “what we know.” The theory holds that our minds are not always flexible or rational when it comes to evaluating uncomfortable information or questioning our own beliefs.

The theory holds that “dissonant cognitions” will cause us to dismiss or alter conflicting information or add justification to one side or the other—not necessarily rationally—in order to regain psychological balance. It’s an important concept to consider in terms of the way people block things out or justify things to themselves."


It may be accurate. It may even be widely accepted, but I'm damn sure it isn't well known. That's the bit you made up.

[Mick100]

Actually its a well known psychological phenomenon - when things are bad, people tend to only believe information that reinforces the negative, and disregard the positive. And vice versa, when things are good, people only take in information that is good news, and disbelieve any bad news. Thats how we get booms and busts. When its boom time, no-one listens to the naysayers. When its bust time, no believes the optimists.

good post KW

I am familiar with this reasoning - anyone who's read a book on behavoural finance will have come across this before

Makes perfect sense to me

[STRAT]

I keep looking for good news :( and it keeps telling me it is a Bear Rally.


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Electronics maker Hitachi reports a record annual loss by a Japanese manufacturer, after a drop in demand for its products.
Hitachi to split core businesses (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7945918.stm)
Hitachi to cut up to 7,000 jobs (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7859913.stm)
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45369000/jpg/_45369784_chinaport66.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8045208.stm) http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif Sharp fall in exports from China (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8045208.stm)

China's exports in April were down 22.6% from a year ago, figures show, the sixth successive month of decline.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45763000/jpg/_45763207_000974703-1.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8045166.stm) http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif Downturn pushes Nissan into loss (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8045166.stm)

Japanese carmaker Nissan reports a net loss for the past year, but the results are better than expected.Dont read it. Good or bad its 95% bull**** anyway

[tricha]

Dont read it. Good or bad its 95% bull**** anyway

I wish it was a bull, but it's a Bear :( Every day is the same of late

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45464000/jpg/_45464543_intelapcopy.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8047546.stm)http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifEU slaps a record fine on Intel (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8047546.stm)
Chipmaker Intel is fined a record 1.06bn euros ($1.45bn; £948m) by the European Commission for anti-competitive practices.
Intel faces huge competition fine (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8046393.stm)
EU hits Intel with fresh charges (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7512950.stm)
EU outlines Intel 'market abuse' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6918975.stm)
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45768000/jpg/_45768715_45087151.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8047355.stm) http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif US Medicare funding under threat (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8047355.stm)

Medicare and Social Security programmes for older people will run out of money sooner than expected, the US says.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45768000/jpg/_45768108_cars_ap226i.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8047201.stm) http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif Japanese trade indicator halves (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8047201.stm)

Japan's current account surplus, the widest measure of its overseas trade, fell 50.2% in the year to the end of March.

[STRAT]

I wish it was a bull, but it's a Bear :( Every day is the same of late

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45464000/jpg/_45464543_intelapcopy.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8047546.stm)http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifEU slaps a record fine on Intel (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8047546.stm)
Chipmaker Intel is fined a record 1.06bn euros ($1.45bn; £948m) by the European Commission for anti-competitive practices.
Intel faces huge competition fine (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8046393.stm)
EU hits Intel with fresh charges (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7512950.stm)
EU outlines Intel 'market abuse' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6918975.stm)
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45768000/jpg/_45768715_45087151.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8047355.stm) http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif US Medicare funding under threat (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8047355.stm)

Medicare and Social Security programmes for older people will run out of money sooner than expected, the US says.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45768000/jpg/_45768108_cars_ap226i.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8047201.stm) http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif Japanese trade indicator halves (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8047201.stm)

Japan's current account surplus, the widest measure of its overseas trade, fell 50.2% in the year to the end of March.
Im taking this approach to all that :D

[fungus pudding]

Fungus, the fact that you dont know something does not mean it is not well known. I did not say it was "universally known".
As Mick points out, anyone familiar with behavioural finance will have heard of it. And as this is an investment forum, I assume posters here are familiar with basic tenets of investment theory.
In addition, those who have studied basic psychology, marketing or advertising would also be very familiar with the concept.


Fair enough. I'll accept that and humbly crawl back under my rock.

[tricha]

The market is pricing in the shares for the next year or two and not on current news.

You will also find that alot of institutions and individuals who are short or under weight in this market are caught with their pants down climbing over eachother to get set, hence the market is running hard.

Human behaviour are like a herd of sheep.

Looks like those sheep are going to be slaughtered today Dr Who

and KW - "For the record the "well known psychological phenomenon" is called cognitive dissonance. "

Excellent approach about the market psychology, something I have over looked in recent times.

And Strats picture, tells a story.


http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=1544&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1242211752 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=1544&d=1242211752)

[Hoop]

Actually its a well known psychological phenomenon - when things are bad, people tend to only believe information that reinforces the negative, and disregard the positive. And vice versa, when things are good, people only take in information that is good news, and disbelieve any bad news. Thats how we get booms and busts. When its boom time, no-one listens to the naysayers. When its bust time, no believes the optimists.

A great post KW
cognitive dissonance (CD)...Yes ...so true....I remember back to late 2007....there were bad signs all over the place and the boom times kept on rolling. Every time I posted I felt like Dr Death the prophet of Doom....but I was printing it to how I saw it (see my post#13 Investing strategies and the secular bear market thread) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5171) ..not many believed that the economic data coming out was that bad because the media was still publishing what the masses wanted to hear BOOM..BOOM and more BOOM. Then in late 2007 the TA charts started to sound off warning signs (see my post#58 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5171&page=4)...this was the start folks!!!..and yes CD played a huge part as still the majority partied with their rose tinted glasses on. It was at this stage (DOW index at 12400 coming off its highs of 13500) that many including me were looking at a possible but to believe low point of mid 7000's.

In hindsight...it is easy because you can see what happened next.
Try looking at the chart below during the end of 2007 and blank out what happened after my post dates ..."hey the DOW's at 12400 taking a breather ..mid 7400 before the year 2010 you must be mad"

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/djiaa_us12may06_to_20jun09.png

[JoeBlogs]

KW, very true in all facets of life, but especially so in the highly speculative form of todays markets.

The strength of this phenomenon seems to vary depending on culture - I've often thought that Americans are more prone to it than Aussies or Kiwis - this is just my (unqualified) opinion.

[Stranger_Danger]

KW - I thought a crash was coming too, and like you, my "errors" (isn't hindsight great?) were around the edges. I sold *most* shares - not all shares. I stayed *mostly* in cash - but started nibbling with new purchases too early.

Right now, I'm still overweight cash. If this is a bear rally, then in hindsight I'll have been nibbling too early. If it is the start of a sustained upturn, then in hindsight I'll be buying too late.

No-one can pick anything precisely on a consistent basis. My answer is to follow my instinct but generally err on the side of caution and then learn to live with being grumpy because I *never* avoid 100% of the losses or make 100% of the gains.

There is one thing heroes tend to have in common - they're all dead.

[Stranger_Danger]

KW - I get your strategy, as a general rule a downturn is the time to buy and I did extremely well with buys during the 2001-2002 period. I can well remember buys made on September 12th 2001 with much fondness!

However - and these could be famous last words - I think it really is a little bit different this time.

Will we recover? Yep

Are there big gains to be made? Yep

However, is there a price to pay for excess liquidity, and will using the problem as the answer to the problem eventually stop woking?

I say yes, and that we're in for a rough few years. I don't view this as a "buy the dip" situation and whilst there will be opportunities (I too have had some good wins of late) I think patience is still a virtue.

We still seem to be in a cycle of fear of doom, or greed that the doom is passing. Personally, I don't think we've seen enough ACTUAL DOOM and the associated capitulation, given the excesses that led to the present situation.

[tricha]

"Originally Posted by Phaedrus http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=254706#post254706)
This question is not worth asking. Right now, no-one can say. In time the answer will become quite apparent, but in the meantime all any of us can do is guess.

To my mind, there are three important questions we need to ask ourselves :-

(1) Is the Dow in an uptrend?
(2) Is this rally bigger than any previous rally?
(3) Should we be invested right now?

Answers :- Yes, Yes and Yes."

It's good to see u changed it and added #4, pitty u do not do FA, u would have seen it coming.

[tricha]

Looks like our gameplan is going to be completely different, going forward :)

Krugman Says World Faces Japanese-Style ‘Lost Decade’ (Update1)


Share (javascript:togShareLinks('shr_v');) | Email (?Subject=Bloomberg%20news:%20%20Krugman Says World Faces Japanese-Style ‘Lost Decade’ (Update1) &body=%20Krugman Says World Faces Japanese-Style ‘Lost Decade’ (Update1) %0D%0A%0D%0A%20http%3A//www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3Demail_en%26sid%3DaAHgYOfu4nT8) | Print (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aAHgYOfu4nT8&refer=asia#) | A (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aAHgYOfu4nT8&refer=asia#) A (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aAHgYOfu4nT8&refer=asia#) A (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aAHgYOfu4nT8&refer=asia#)



By Tim Culpan
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&iid=iGkUzfswV6T4

May 14 (Bloomberg) -- The world economy may face near- stagnation for 10 years similar to Japan’s “lost decade” in the 1990s, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Paul+Krugman&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) said.
“The world as a whole looks quite a lot like Japan during its lost decade,” Krugman, 56, said at a forum today in Taipei. “I am very optimistic about the world in, let’s say, 2030; it’s the next ten years or so that have me worried.”
While the odds of a repeat of the Great Depression of the 1930s have fallen, the global economy faces weak private demand and persistent high unemployment in the U.S. and Europe, Krugman said. His prediction of a protracted slowdown echoes comments by Citigroup Inc.’s James Wolfensohn (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=James+Wolfensohn&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), who’s a former World Bank president, and fellow Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Joseph+Stiglitz&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1).
Asian stocks (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=TPX%3AIND) fell today and commodities dropped amid concern that a recovery from the global recession will falter. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Mervyn+King&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) predicted yesterday “a relatively slow and protracted recovery” for the U.K.
“The odds of a full repeat of the Great Depression have, in my mind, fallen from maybe 20 percent a couple of months ago to maybe 5 percent now,” said Krugman, a Princeton University professor.
Similarities with Japan’s past problems included a troubled financial system, weak demand and “helpful but limited fiscal support,” he said.
Deep Initial Slump
In some ways, the global recession is “worse than Japan in its lost decade” because the initial slump was deeper and, unlike Japan, the world can’t trade its way out, Krugman said. “If the world as a whole is going to run a large trade surplus, we have to find another planet to trade with.”
Krugman won the Nobel Prize (http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2008/index.html) in 2008 for his work on trade theory.
Eisuke Sakakibara (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Eisuke+Sakakibara&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), Japan’s former top currency official, added to the warnings today, saying in a speech in Manila that gains in stock prices are a “bear-market rally” and the global recession may be “deep and prolonged.”
Krugman’s fellow laureate Stiglitz said yesterday that the world economy may “bottom soon.”
“We are at the end of the beginning, rather than the beginning of the end,” Stiglitz said at a forum in Beijing. “The global economy may be declining at a slower rate and we may see a bottom soon, but it doesn’t mean a full recovery.”
Wolfensohn, chairman of Citigroup’s international advisory board, sees “no quick fix.”
“The debate will continue on whether it’s going to be a V, U or L-shaped recession,” he said at a forum in Shanghai yesterday evening. “My own judgment is that it’s more likely the latter.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Tim Culpan (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Tim+Culpan&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) in Taipei at tculpan1@bloomberg.net (tculpan1@bloomberg.net).
Last Updated: May 14, 2009 06:02 EDT

[STRAT]

Hi Tricha,
Dont care what some nobel prize winner says about 2030 or anyone else who blows hot air for a living. The market will tell me what I should react to today, tomorrow and the next day.

[Phaedrus]

pitty u do not do FA, u would have seen it coming. Ah, but Tricha, I did see it coming. Months before the slide began I posted here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=158715)the Index based market monitoring system that I have used over several different markets for many years.

It explained how I would recognise the onset of any significant weakness.
It quantified typical ("normal") retracements. ("Caution" periods when buying was proscribed)
It delineated just how far any retracement would have to go before it became serious and a matter for concern.
It stated what I would do if/when these conditions were met. (Sell everything and move to 100% cash)
It ended "If this market tanks, I am NOT going with it."

The ASX went into "Caution" mode on 17/12/07 (No buying allowed) and by 9/1/08 was in full "Red Alert" mode. (Get OUT)

Now, by way of contrast, let's look at your actions at this time. (Presumably you were "doing" FA). 18/12/07 :- "Christmas shopping day today. Bought all these cheap shares as the marginal lending and stop losses kicked in. Beautiful" and "Picked up Perilya for $2.85 and EXM for 3.2 cents.... bargins a plenty for anyone." As the market continued to fall and then hit "Red Alert" status, you continued buying even more (averaging down) - and "sold the kitchen sink to do it." I don't know when you finally bailed out of these stocks Tricha, but PEM is currently 37 cents and EXM 1 cent. You were buying heavily right at the start of the big slide.

Pity u do not do TA, u would have seen it coming!

[jdg]

it was very interesting reading your old post, P. no doubt you called it well.

-j

[tricha]

it was very interesting reading your old post, P. no doubt you called it well.

-j

He called it WELL, he posted this on Saturday, he slipped up and it was so far out u would have to ... that's why u do not make calls Phaedrus.
So u can never be judged, because u never has made a mistake.
But he loves to bag people like me, who has made heaps of mistakes and will make more and keeps buying in down trends ;) ( AWE my last big foray and I am out )
But u right about downtrends Phaedraus, people should be very wary about them, Timberlands is another good example of not!
AWE was a classic example of yes.


Quote:
Originally Posted by tricha http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=255639#post255639)
"Originally Posted by Phaedrus http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=254706#post254706)
This question is not worth asking. Right now, no-one can say. In time the answer will become quite apparent, but in the meantime all any of us can do is guess.

To my mind, there are three important questions we need to ask ourselves :-

(1) Is the Dow in an uptrend?
(2) Is this rally bigger than any previous rally?
(3) Should we be invested right now?

Answers :- Yes, Yes and Yes."

[tricha]

Hi Tricha,
Dont care what some nobel prize winner says about 2030 or anyone else who blows hot air for a living. The market will tell me what I should react to today, tomorrow and the next day.

Don't care, hmm u have major headaches coming :eek: get your hands off your eyes and pull the wool from your ears :D


Business

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http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44715000/gif/_44715553_800_red_line.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif

Page last updated at 13:00 GMT, Friday, 15 May 2009 14:00 UK
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/ffffff.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44729000/jpg/_44729528_tyretwoap226jpgi.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8051332.stm)http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifEurozone economies contract 2.5% (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8051332.stm)
The economy of the eurozone declined by 2.5% in the first three months of 2009, the EU's statistics agency says.
Spanish economy shrinks rapidly (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8049574.stm)
Europe's economy 'to shrink 4%' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8032349.stm)
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45302000/jpg/_45302603_petrol66.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8052125.stm) http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif US inflation unchanged in April (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8052125.stm)

US consumer prices were unchanged in April, but recorded their largest year-on-year drop, data shows.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45779000/jpg/_45779836_007280215-1.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8052101.stm) http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif Big loss from Singapore bank sale (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8052101.stm)

Temasek, the Singapore state investor, announces the sale of its stake in Bank of America for a large loss.

[shasta]

Don't care, hmm u have major headaches coming :eek: get your hands off your eyes and pull the wool from your ears :D




Business

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Page last updated at 13:00 GMT, Friday, 15 May 2009 14:00 UK
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http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44729000/jpg/_44729528_tyretwoap226jpgi.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8051332.stm)http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifEurozone economies contract 2.5% (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8051332.stm)
The economy of the eurozone declined by 2.5% in the first three months of 2009, the EU's statistics agency says.
Spanish economy shrinks rapidly (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8049574.stm)
Europe's economy 'to shrink 4%' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8032349.stm)
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45302000/jpg/_45302603_petrol66.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8052125.stm) http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif US inflation unchanged in April (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8052125.stm)

US consumer prices were unchanged in April, but recorded their largest year-on-year drop, data shows.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45779000/jpg/_45779836_007280215-1.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8052101.stm) http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif Big loss from Singapore bank sale (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8052101.stm)

Temasek, the Singapore state investor, announces the sale of its stake in Bank of America for a large loss.

Be greedy when others are fearful, ring a bell? :D

[The Big Ease]

I'd say we are looking for confirmation of this uptrend at around 8000 levels on the DJI.
How do you read it Phaedrus?

[STRAT]

Don't care, hmm u have major headaches coming :eek: get your hands off your eyes and pull the wool from your ears :D
Haha Tricha, I will keep my hands where they are thanks and I dont need cotton wool to keep me from hearing. Loud music has done that already :D

For the last two years I have tracked the Dow and allords and used those charts to tell me when to bail. My limited ability got me out in May 08. I got back in partly in Nov08 calling the bottom. Got that wrong but for many stocks that still is the bottom at this point in time and Ive done pretty good this year. I expect the same charts to eject me from the market this time/ next time in a reasonably timely fashion too.

Reading all the crap published by this expert and the next is what will give you a headache and leave you swinging from despair to excitement and back again often at the wrong time and with out a doubt many more times than need be.

I will stick to cloud reading Tricha it has served me fairly well and as my ability improves Im confident so will the results.

This could be construed as averaging down :eek: but one single purchase of a second lump of VPEO in Nov 08 ( my largest holding )has meant Im overall around 120% up over the last 6 months including losses and including holding VPE and some other crap all the way through.

Think I will leave the articles designed to move the masses alone thanks all the same

[tricha]

Be greedy when others are fearful, ring a bell? :D

Yes Shasta and at the moment, most people are thinking greed.:p And if u got in late on this beartrap, u r inline for another spanking.

So be Fearful when other people are Greedy. We have had this very nice run and I am now very happy to be parked (mostly) on the sideline.


Holding PPP, with a sprinkle of ROC, BPT, CUE and took a wee punt yesterday and bought 400K of FML shares.
Yes, FML is a gambling stock, pretty stupid probably, not FD correct, but hey ................:D

P.S Off to look at buying some flats today, will be positively geared from day one if the deal goes through.

Happy hunting folks, we are in exciting times.:)

[winner69]

Yes Shasta and at the moment, most people are thinking greed ......... So be Fearful when other people are Greedy...........

Off to look at buying some flats today,

Seems to be a bit of contradiction here mate ..... maybe you are the greedy one when it comes to property and might be falling into another type of bear trap

Though I garee with you property investment looks the goods at the mo .... almost too good to be true .... winner has never had residential property investments (except his own house) and if it seems so good that winner is tempted .... you know the story it probably isn't true

[Phaedrus]

He posted this on Saturday, he slipped up and it was so far out u would have to ... that's why u do not make calls Phaedrus.Tricha, I can't understand this sentence at all. "u would have to..." what? I also don't understand what you mean when you say I "slipped up". Specifically, what is the mistake you are referring to? The bit that seems to be upsetting you is where I posed some questions and gave what to me were the obvious answers. Lets examine these one at a time.

(1) Is the Dow in an uptrend? Look at the area enclosed by the blue elipse. Isn't the answer Yes? Surely you must agree with this.

(2) Is this rally bigger than any previous rally?Look at the Trailing Stop as plotted here in Magenta. These are an excellent tool for comparing the relative strength of retracements. Even without this aid, it is very easy to see that this rally is clearly bigger than those that preceded it. Another Yes. Yes?

(3) Should we be invested right now? This, of course, is a matter of opinion. The fact is that this rally has given some of the most spectacular returns seen in the market for a long, long time. You only need to look at some of the percentage gains being reported by many ST posters for evidence of this. I for one would hate to have missed out on such a great opportunity, so for me the answer must again be Yes.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/DJIA516.gif

Tricha, all uptrends end. The very title of this thread highlights the possibility that this may be no more than a Bear rally. Any idiot can see that there is a need for vigilance and caution at such times.

[tricha]

Suggest you go back to "The Great Depression" Phaedrus and see if your buy now, resemblance a "Bear Trap"

[tricha]

Seems to be a bit of contradiction here mate ..... maybe you are the greedy one when it comes to property and might be falling into another type of bear trap

Though I garee with you property investment looks the goods at the mo .... almost too good to be true .... winner has never had residential property investments (except his own house) and if it seems so good that winner is tempted .... you know the story it probably isn't true

Maybe I am greedy Winner69, the property will be postively geared from day one, if the deal goes through.
And the beauty of it, the bank will fund it 100%.

[winner69]

Maybe I am greedy Winner69, the property will be postively geared from day one, if the deal goes through.
And the beauty of it, the bank will fund it 100%.

Good one ... even I am tempted at such ventures even though commercial property is where my property money is in

One thing going for you (and maybe me) is that Bollard is starting to fire up another booom / bubble period

[dragonz]

Holding PPP, with a sprinkle of ROC, BPT, CUE and took a wee punt yesterday and bought 400K of FML shares.
Yes, FML is a gambling stock, pretty stupid probably, not FD correct, but hey ................:D


Happy hunting folks, we are in exciting times.:)

Hi Tricha
I'm always looking out for 1st year producers and have had my eye FML for a while now. I have traded in and out of FML about 1/2 dozen times over the last 2 months with some easy scalp trades and it is one of my "bread and butter income stocks". I think since the cap raising the fundamentals have got a lot better as it removed the uncertainty over debt. Hopefully there will not be too many snags with the re-commissioning of the Three Mile Plant. The cap Raising brings a degree of certainty now and with an aggressive growth strategy (and a means to achieve these goals) makes this a very exciting future.

The share price has held up well despite added selling pressure from the Raisings. At the moment the market is "churning" which is the perfect time to buy. If this breaks the 3 cent resistance then I'll be in boots and all.

This is a good medium to long term hold and I wouldn’t be surprised if they reach 6 cents by years end. You'll probably see a share consolidation soon after.


Congratulations on your buy.

[Phaedrus]

Suggest you go back to "The Great Depression" Phaedrus and see if your buy now, resemblance a "Bear Trap"Tricha, Bear Traps are called that because they trap BEARS.

Here is the definition of a Bear Trap from Webster's New World Finance and Investment Dictionary :-
"A situation in which a bear market (a downward-moving market) changes direction and prices rise. Bearish investors who expected the market to continue declining will continue selling short (selling what they don’t own). Eventually they are forced to buy their investments back at a higher price in order to avoid further losses. Thus, the bears are caught in a trap".

Bears lost a lot of money in this rally.

Bulls made a lot of money in this rally.

[The Big Ease]

Tricha, Bear Traps are called that because they trap BEARS.

Here is the definition of a Bear Trap from Webster's New World Finance and Investment Dictionary :-
"A situation in which a bear market (a downward-moving market) changes direction and prices rise. Bearish investors who expected the market to continue declining will continue selling short (selling what they don’t own). Eventually they are forced to buy their investments back at a higher price in order to avoid further losses. Thus, the bears are caught in a trap".

Bears lost a lot of money in this rally.

Bulls made a lot of money in this rally.
yup!
2.5 bags for me.

[dragonz]

Maybe I'll be the first to say it - but perhaps, just perhaps, this is actually a bull market correction?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aA.Q0gfraU10&refer=worldwide

News out of the US on the home front is actually pretty good. I believe that as housing caused this whole mess, as things come full circle, the US housing market will be the precursor of things beginning to get better. Of course, it may take another 3 years to come right, but I think we may be on the upwards path.

I'm in your corner KW :D

[Lego_Man]

Maybe I'll be the first to say it - but perhaps, just perhaps, this is actually a bull market correction?


Well that certainly is a novel theory.

[STRAT]

I've decided that as everyone is thinking its a bear market rally, then it must, by default, be a bull market correction. The market always does the opposite to what everyone is expecting.

Plus, 50% annual returns are not uncommon post market crash, so a rally that only delivered 35% is a bit anaemic - must be more to come!Good on ya KW. Personally Im not concerned either way any more. Got a nice buffer with room for my holds to wriggle now which wasnt the case in March when I started the thread. In any case the drop over the last few days on the DOW hardly warrants being called a correction at this point. I guess the ASX could be.

[Hoop]

Maybe I'll be the first to say it - but perhaps, just perhaps, this is actually a bull market correction?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aA.Q0gfraU10&refer=worldwide

News out of the US on the home front is actually pretty good. I believe that as housing caused this whole mess, as things come full circle, the US housing market will be the precursor of things beginning to get better. Of course, it may take another 3 years to come right, but I think we may be on the upwards path.

Sorry KW youre not the first ...I am :D:D (see my #388 post on the DOW thread) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6114&page=26)
Don't know if I should advertise this fact :o..may end up with egg on my face from those "Ha Ha told you so" people.

[Damo79]

I'm going to join a couple of others on a limb, and say the bottom has been reached. That's not to say I think this rally will continue far though. I'm expecting up to a couple of years of sideways trading of the base that was reached in the past few weeks.

I wasn't the first either, but I think I was pretty close with this, from page 2 of this thread and written on the 18th March :D I believe the bottom was hit on about the 10th of March. What do I win?

[Dr_Who]

Looks like a bull rally over night on the Dow. :eek:

[dragonz]

Where's Duncan when we need him. He accurately predicted the slooow motion train crash. Perhaps he can give us a run down on the Bulls bottom. ;)

[JBmurc]

couple charts here first the weekly S & P 500 next the monthly and also the M3 money supply sadly I can't find a more upto date one ,I did read that since Obama has been in office he has increased USD for bailout by 40bill per day......

[STRAT]

Where's Duncan when we need him. He accurately predicted the slooow motion train crash. Perhaps he can give us a run down on the Bulls bottom. ;)Gone Fishin :D
but there are some who will tell you he is the expert when it comes to the Bulls Bottom

[tricha]

Tricha, Bear Traps are called that because they trap BEARS.

Here is the definition of a Bear Trap from Webster's New World Finance and Investment Dictionary :-
"A situation in which a bear market (a downward-moving market) changes direction and prices rise. Bearish investors who expected the market to continue declining will continue selling short (selling what they don’t own). Eventually they are forced to buy their investments back at a higher price in order to avoid further losses. Thus, the bears are caught in a trap".

Bears lost a lot of money in this rally.

Bulls made a lot of money in this rally.

Yeah but the question Phaedrus, can u relate the DOW chart to the crash of 1929 and it's bear traps?
Lets face all news is still very bad.


Japan's economy in record plunge


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45704000/jpg/_45704438_007206531-1.jpg Japan's exports have been hit by a collapse in demand

Japan's economy during the first three months of 2009 shrank at its quickest pace since records began, as exports slumped, officials figures have shown. Output in the world's second largest economy contracted by 4% during the period, or by 15.2% on an annual basis.
Japan's economy, which depends heavily on exports, has been hit hard by the global downturn.
But economists predict a modest growth in the coming months, after a small rise in production in March.
The figures from the Cabinet Office show that this is the fourth quarterly fall in gross domestic product (GDP) in a row, after a 3.8% contraction between October and December 2008.
'Weakness spreading'
The BBC's Roland Buerk in Tokyo says people around the world are buying fewer of the cars and electronic gadgets that Japan is renowned for.
In the first quarter of this year, Japanese exports declined by 26%.
"Weakness in the corporate sector is gradually spreading to households," Prime Minister Taro Aso said during a budget hearing to Parliament.
"This is a very serious situation, so we need to respond appropriately."
Investment in factories and equipment dropped by 10.4% in the first quarter, a sign that firms are reducing their outlay. Consumer spending fell by 1.1% during the same period.
"The savings rate has gone up and that has worsened the severity of the recession," said Richard Jerram, head economist at Macquarie Securities in Tokyo.
"It seems the public has basically panicked about job security to an an extent that hasn't happened in previous cycles," he added.
The latest contraction is the biggest since records began in 1955.

[Dr_Who]

The weird thing is that the market is ignoring bad news. The Nikkei is up on bad GDP numbers. It is like the market is looking for opportunities to buy on the dips.

[The Big Ease]

The market had priced in a collapse of the banking system and another great depression. Like Y2k and swine flu, anticipation of the fallout was far worse than its actuality. The market is correcting for that over-reaction.

Nothing more, nothing less.
The question is; where does it balance out.
It has become pretty difficult to dispute that the ship has begun to turn, but it still has some way to go.

So far, so good.
I must say that the authorities around the world have managed the situation far better than could be expected. It is difficult to believe there are still cheerleaders on the sidelines who are bemoaning the fact that governments did not allow the biggest financial institutions to fail. Some people need to get over the romance of their ideology and realise we would be nowhere near even discussing a recovery had that been allowed to occur.

It is fair to say that in 12 months we are likely to be discussing rate hikes and the withdrawal of money from the system. Far better than the alternative had the governments allowed more banks to fail. The bill won't be cheap, but it will be a dam sight cheaper than the alternative.

Thank god Obama came along at the right time.

[tricha]

The market had priced in a collapse of the banking system and another great depression. Like Y2k and swine flu, anticipation of the fallout was far worse than its actuality. The market is correcting for that over-reaction.

It's all an illusion, the states is finished, all their ATM's are bust and their consumerism is dead.
A new world order is being established. :) OZ is a different story.

Business

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Page last updated at 09:20 GMT, Thursday, 21 May 2009 10:20 UK
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/ffffff.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45803000/jpg/_45803473_dollars.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8060842.stm)http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifMarkets fall as growth hopes fade (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8060842.stm)
Markets worldwide fall after Federal Reserve minutes showed the central bank has lowered its forecast for US growth.
(http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8059009.stm)

[tricha]

It's all an illusion, the states is finished, all their ATM's are bust and their consumerism is dead.
A new world order is being established. :) OZ is a different story.


Business

News Feeds (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/help/3223484.stm)
RSS feed (http://newsrss.bbc.co.uk/rss/newsonline_world_edition/business/rss.xml)


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Page last updated at 09:20 GMT, Thursday, 21 May 2009 10:20 UK
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/ffffff.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45803000/jpg/_45803473_dollars.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8060842.stm)http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifMarkets fall as growth hopes fade (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8060842.stm)
Markets worldwide fall after Federal Reserve minutes showed the central bank has lowered its forecast for US growth.



It might even be a good day to go for your liferafts, folks. The beartrap is unwinding fast.
In fact bargain hunting might have to wait till next week, to see how far this fallout is going to last.

I'm glad I am now 70% cashed up , can I take advantage of this carnage :confused:




MARKET DATA - 20:21 UK (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/overview/default.stm)

FTSE 100 (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/stockmarket/3/default.stm)4345.47down
-122.94-2.75%Dax (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/stockmarket/18/default.stm)4900.67down
-138.27-2.74%Cac 40 (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/stockmarket/1/default.stm)3217.41down
-85.96-2.60%Dow Jones (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/stockmarket/2/default.stm)8250.16down
-171.88-2.04%Nasdaq (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/stockmarket/12122/default.stm)1685.32down
-42.52-2.46%BBC Global 30 (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/stockmarket/29954/default.stm)4637.01down
-111.16-2.34%