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The Great Gold Guru
20-03-2009, 04:09 PM
THis stock has been absolutely trashed the last few weeks. Recent interim was pretty robust. Wondering if one of the large institutions is bailing. Huge volume on offer at the close , very unusual to see that sort of stuff out in the open in a stock like POT.

Disc: Purchased a few today near the close at $4.90

Don't like catching falling knives but these can go in the bottom drawer for the long term at these prices.

Snoopy
20-03-2009, 06:37 PM
This stock has been absolutely trashed the last few weeks. Recent interim was pretty robust. Wondering if one of the large institutions is bailing. Huge volume on offer at the close , very unusual to see that sort of stuff out in the open in a stock like POT.

Disc: Purchased a few today near the close at $4.90

Don't like catching falling knives but these can go in the bottom drawer for the long term at these prices.


GGG, I trust you have seen my projected ten year return on this share over on the 'other channel'.

http://forum.sharechat.co.nz/showthread.php?p=17654#post17654

A share price fall to $4.90 has increased those projected returns to 7.1% per year after tax. That is an OK return but nothing to get really excited about when you look at the other bargains that are available in this market. $4.90 represents a PE ratio of 15.6 based on FY2008 earnings (FY2009 earnings are forecast to be similar). A PE multiple of 15 still requires some growth to be on the horizon. Where do you see the growth in the bulk export commodities markets GGG?

'In theory', NZ should be looking good in timber as our relative position to old soviet countries improves. But can we capture these overseas markets as soviet subsidies are removed? It doesn't matter how competitive you are in commodities if the demand for that commodity collapses.

In any straight earnings value analysis I can't name any period over the last five years where POT has been an obvious bargain. This doesn't mean POT has been a bad investment candidate though. The real value in POT has come from the increase in value of their land bank (13% per annum over the last nine years) as vacant land is developed into valuable cargo handling sites for their customers. But if demand for bulk commodities fails to increase who will want to buy and develop more of that land in the future? IMO and consummate with other listed property companies POT might be facing a multimillion dollar write down on the value of their land holdings. What would such a write down do to POT's debt equity position?

GGG, if this was a normal recession I would say what you have done by purchasing at $4.90 is just the right thing. Long term I think you will do O.K. whatever unfolds. But in this market I would be interested in getting an updated valuation on those POT owned properties before I bought into POT. My hunch is that over the next six months POT is headed lower than $4.90.

SNOOPY

discl: do not hold

The Great Gold Guru
26-03-2009, 10:19 AM
One of the directors ( J Parker ) bought 8000 shares at $4.90 last week ... must have seen me buying and took the cue !! hahahaha

Positive news ... $40k investment

Arbitrage
01-05-2014, 10:27 AM
This stock seems to be on the up. ASB Securities value it at $13. Current price $14.34 and trending upwards. Is it the logs and dairy exports driving this?

Onion
14-05-2014, 11:11 PM
I got an automated email from ANZ Securities/Direct Broking today:


POT.NZX has traded at or below 1300

What? Something is wrong with their alerts 'cos today's range was 1435 to 1444c.

samdaman
15-05-2014, 07:50 AM
I love seeing old posts like above. If he's still sitting on those shares, he's looking at returns fo nearly 40% p.a and that's not even counting in the dividends. + it looks like he picked a bottom quite perfectly too. Haha good stuff

blocker3
18-05-2014, 10:01 AM
This stock seems to be on the up. ASB Securities value it at $13. Current price $14.34 and trending upwards. Is it the logs and dairy exports driving this?

Hi Arbitrage,I live in Tauranga. There are log ships everywhere. It is not uncommon (at the top of the Mount which I walk often) to see them in anchored waiting to come in a free berth. Also up here you can see a vast number of logs all over the POT pier.

Other ports in the country are also in full swing of logs also.
Cheers

Arbitrage
20-05-2014, 07:31 AM
Its a pity we don't add value to the wood before export, however it must be helping POT's bottom line. However log exports might be levelling off a bit. The NZ Herald reports this morning: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11257866

GizyGold
20-05-2014, 09:27 AM
Its a pity we don't add value to the wood before export, however it must be helping POT's bottom line. However log exports might be levelling off a bit. The NZ Herald reports this morning: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11257866

yeah here in Gisborne, prime example of no added value to the logs except Juken. Apparently the volumes increasing significantly. Hopefully a foreign company will have a joint venture with local iwi to get more processing.
:t_up:Port of Tauranga a good stock to own and accumulate

blocker3
20-05-2014, 07:17 PM
Its a pity we don't add value to the wood before export, however it must be helping POT's bottom line. However log exports might be levelling off a bit. The NZ Herald reports this morning: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11257866

Unfortunately GizyGold,Arbitrage we have seen sawn timber companies are closing down here in the BOP. Eg a few months ago Tachikawa in Rotorua.Sad to see.

Winston001
20-05-2014, 10:10 PM
Yes same here on the Mainland. Receivers have just announced closure of Southern Cross mills in Mosgiel and Balclutha.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1404/S00653/southern-cross-forest-receiver-to-close-mill-exit-australia.htm

Its frustrating that NZ cannot add much value to what we produce - we are still a raw commodities exporter. There are two reasons (maybe more):

1. Buyers won't pay the landed price for our product (manufacturing plus labour plus shipping). Or they can't pay the price.

2. Buyers of unprocessed raw product have millions of workers very keen to earn $5/day adding the value at their end. And sometimes selling the results back to us.

Funny old world.

Arbitrage
21-05-2014, 09:50 AM
However there are some wood products we do very well. Customwood particle board from near Christchurch is a good example. The dairy industry adds value to basic milk and the wine industry adds value to grapes. NZ Inc should focus on adding value to raw materials and targeting high value/margin products. Some segments already do this but there is still a lot more potential. All of which would help POT continue its upward march.

blocker3
22-05-2014, 03:09 PM
However there are some wood products we do very well. Customwood particle board from near Christchurch is a good example. The dairy industry adds value to basic milk and the wine industry adds value to grapes. NZ Inc should focus on adding value to raw materials and targeting high value/margin products. Some segments already do this but there is still a lot more potential. All of which would help POT continue its upward march.

Yes it would help POT in the Upward march Arbitrage. Unfortunatly POT can only be the link gateway to the world for both inports and exports as the service provider.

macduffy
22-05-2014, 03:26 PM
The call for adding value to NZ's commodity exports isn't new. In the 1960's when Britain's membership of the EU looked to become a reality it was a hot topic of debate, together with a drive to diversify into new export fields and import substitution industries. Which is how we came to have such expensive distractions as further motor vehicle assemblers and a nylon yarn mill. But that's another story. The key point was, and still is, that we need to produce what the customers want and will pay for. If that means logs rather than particle board or milk powder rather than fancy cheeses or yoghurt, then ..........

Joshuatree
22-05-2014, 04:56 PM
However there are some wood products we do very well. Customwood particle board from near Christchurch is a good example. The dairy industry adds value to basic milk and the wine industry adds value to grapes. NZ Inc should focus on adding value to raw materials and targeting high value/margin products. Some segments already do this but there is still a lot more potential. All of which would help POT continue its upward march.

You are a dead ringer for Rod Oram:cool:

traineeinvestor
22-05-2014, 05:38 PM
This maybe a silly question, but is more value added actually going benefit or hurt POT? If adding value reduces the physical bulk of the goods shipped through the port then there would be a reduction in the number or size) of the ships being serviced which would mean less revenue? As a simple example, sawn timber takes up less space on a ship than unprocessed logs.

I'm no expert on this stuff, so please feel free to point out where the logic breaks down.

blocker3
22-05-2014, 08:02 PM
This maybe a silly question, but is more value added actually going benefit or hurt POT? If adding value reduces the physical bulk of the goods shipped through the port then there would be a reduction in the number or size) of the ships being serviced which would mean less revenue? As a simple example, sawn timber takes up less space on a ship than unprocessed logs.

I'm no expert on this stuff, so please feel free to point out where the logic breaks down.

Simple answer traineeinvestor no benefit, no hurt. POT will ship logs out all day long as "that is what the buyer wants"

Just like Northport another buzzing log port of logs ( 50% owned by POT)

Cheers

Arbitrage
23-05-2014, 12:46 PM
You are a dead ringer for Rod Oram:cool:
Yes I like some of Rods think pieces but dislike others. It is great we have a commentator like him in this country.
However, adding value may benefit NZ Inc, especially in high value products, but POT just wants to get as much stuff across its wharves as soon as possible. So a bit of a conflict there as a kiwi wanting the country to increase its export margins and as a POT shareholder wanting the turnover.

blocker3
24-05-2014, 05:42 AM
Yes I like some of Rods think pieces but dislike others. It is great we have a commentator like him in this country.
However, adding value may benefit NZ Inc, especially in high value products, but POT just wants to get as much stuff across its wharves as soon as possible. So a bit of a conflict there as a kiwi wanting the country to increase its export margins and as a POT shareholder wanting the turnover.

Hi Arbitrage Quote "However, adding value may benefit NZ Inc" is a great concept and is good for NZ. I would love to see more added value product leaving NZ shores.

However with logs ,the saw mill companys here in NZ generally do not own the logs growing. They have to compete with the export log price for "$ and volume". and then have to make a respectible margin in between.

This is where outside country's steam roll us and buy logs in vast volumes . A viscious circle.

So as per my comment above "POT and other ports will ship logs out all day long as that is what the buyer wants"

Cheers

percy
24-05-2014, 06:35 AM
Where is the other POT thread.?????
It had a lot more information on it.!

blocker3
24-05-2014, 06:05 PM
Where is the other POT thread.?????
It had a lot more information on it.!

Good question.

Arbitrage
26-06-2014, 10:07 AM
Good announcement by POT today. It is interesting to note that they believe they have the ability to accommodate the next generation of large ships. These could knock (or at least reduce) Auckland out of the future direct export of container transport due to the lack of harbour space and depth. Aucklands port could become a feeder to POT which will grow POTs dominant position in NZ.

percy
26-06-2014, 10:14 AM
Exactly.
POT will become NZ's hub port.
I think we will see their only call in NZ will be Tauranga.

blocker3
26-06-2014, 07:06 PM
Lots of smiles here in Tauranga today. Great news for Timaru also.

percy
26-06-2014, 07:11 PM
Lots of smiles here in Tauranga today. Great news for Timaru also.

Talk here in Christchurch is about filling in the harbour, and building a fantastic new stadium for the Crusaders on the reclaimed land.!

airedale
26-06-2014, 07:38 PM
Very droll Percy, I expect that you will hear from Brownlee to say that he is ready to ram that idea to the top of his agenda.

Arbitrage
27-06-2014, 08:06 AM
Talk here in Christchurch is about filling in the harbour, and building a fantastic new stadium for the Crusaders on the reclaimed land.!
True on a number of levels.
You have to question why other port companies are throwing ratepayers money at developing their infrastructure when the writing is on the wall that Timaru will be the South Island port, Northport will be the oil terminal, and Tauranga will be the NZ freight hub. When this happens expect to see an IPO for Kiwirail as the port feeder transport company.

percy
27-06-2014, 10:01 AM
True on a number of levels.
You have to question why other port companies are throwing ratepayers money at developing their infrastructure when the writing is on the wall that Timaru will be the South Island port, Northport will be the oil terminal, and Tauranga will be the NZ freight hub. When this happens expect to see an IPO for Kiwirail as the port feeder transport company.

Totally agree with you.
Parochial interests have not helped port companies ,or their customers.

Arbitrage
27-06-2014, 04:49 PM
Dare I say it is time for government intervention on this as it is costing NZ Inc which affects all of us. In the meantime sit back and enjoy holding POT as the tide rises.

percy
27-06-2014, 04:57 PM
Dare I say it is time for government intervention on this as it is costing NZ Inc which affects all of us. In the meantime sit back and enjoy holding POT as the tide rises.

Too hot for our politicians!!!!
Sorry I do not know the number of years this issue has been going on for,may be longer than 20,but every now and again we have "another report on the issue" and the politicians run for cover yet again!!! It all dies down,then when it heats up,time for another report.And so it goes on.[and on and on]
The only people who look to the future and act are the board and management of POT.
The complete madness is looking at the amount of money POA,LPC and Otago, and others, want to spend on dredging INCASE a big ship may call.!!! $80mil here $60 mil there and so on!! I would put a lol, but it is not funny.

Zaphod
28-06-2014, 07:05 PM
Dare I say it is time for government intervention on this as it is costing NZ Inc which affects all of us. In the meantime sit back and enjoy holding POT as the tide rises.

I'm interested in hearing your views on which specific ports you think require intervention and what exactly do you believe needs to be done?

blocker3
28-06-2014, 09:01 PM
Too hot for our politicians!!!!
Sorry I do not know the number of years this issue has been going on for,may be longer than 20,but every now and again we have "another report on the issue" and the politicians run for cover yet again!!! It all dies down,then when it heats up,time for another report.And so it goes on.[and on and on]
The only people who look to the future and act are the board and management of POT.
The complete madness is looking at the amount of money POA,LPC and Otago, and others, want to spend on dredging INCASE a big ship may call.!!! $80mil here $60 mil there and so on!! I would put a lol, but it is not funny.

Quote from above Percy...The only people who look to the future and act are the board and management of POT.

This sums it up exactly. Shown by,that there is now 7 shore cranes at the POT terminal for a reason. The dredging of the channel is also in the making. An umbilical cord of rail up to Auckland with the dry land metro port there.

And guess what, POT is also in with, Port Timiru in the south Island, with its umbilical cord of rail up to the dry port in Christchurch .

And do not forget that POT owns 50% of Northport.

I think they are planning for the one stop (south Island) and one stop (North Island) for the big shipping lines. There after tranship to other NZ ports and collect the double container movement.

POT management are planning for the future.


Disc :Holding POT shares

Arbitrage
30-06-2014, 08:52 AM
I'm interested in hearing your views on which specific ports you think require intervention and what exactly do you believe needs to be done?

By having regional ports competing against each other and trying to generate cash for their local rate payers, the large shipping companies like Maersk must be laughing all the way to the bank as they avoid paying the true costs of freight forwarding in NZ. Why not have one north island port eg POT that acts as an exporting gateway? Land based freight forwarding infrastructure (ie government) expenditure though out the North Island could be focussed on that port. This would mean Govt and ratepayers no longer wasting money on providing expensive roads through downtown Auckland for trucks trying to get to the port. This would stop the need for more reclamation of the Waitemata Harbour and even reduce the present footprint of the onshore component of the port.
In the South Island, Lyttelton is spending millions (of insurance money plus ratepayers money) on rebuilding its port. What for? To compete against other South Island ports (eg Timaru) for the lions share of exports and imports. Again the shipping companies are enjoying a free (or at least cheap) ride subsidised by you and me.
We need to learn from the history of NZ ports and see the same old pattern emerging of capital expenditure being wasted as the port network contracts.
The present port model looks like market failure to me as a ratepayer. Perhaps the government should step in and change this model to benefit the whole of NZ, not just a few large foreign shipping companies? Conversely economics will probably achieve this anyway but it will be a more expensive and slower death for some ports in NZ.

rainey
30-06-2014, 09:39 AM
Some years ago, I read 100 years of the port of otago. Exactly the same thing happened then Port Chalmers versus Dunedin Cost many many thousands

Arbitrage
30-06-2014, 10:01 AM
That is true Rainey. Something closer to your home from NZ History http://www.nzhistory.net.nz/culture/oamaru-harbour

"In his 1981 book Landmarks, Kenneth Cumberland called Oamaru ‘Kiwitown’, the archetypal regional servicing centre, with its shops, stock and station agencies, railway and, of course, its harbour.

Ports were the beachheads of colonial expansion. No town could prosper without one. Those that had natural harbours spent huge sums deepening them to accommodate ever larger ships. Towns that lacked natural harbours spent even more money – ‘Harbors where nature has not provided them’, as Otago’s provincial harbourmaster complained in 1868 – and risked bankruptcy doing so. Napier, New Plymouth, Timaru and Oamaru all built big artificial harbours to stay in the progress game.

Oamaru Harbour closed to shipping in 1974 and is now a registered historic place. It’s the best place in the country to see how and why all New Zealanders once depended so heavily on sea transport"

percy
30-06-2014, 10:22 AM
By having regional ports competing against each other and trying to generate cash for their local rate payers, the large shipping companies like Maersk must be laughing all the way to the bank as they avoid paying the true costs of freight forwarding in NZ. Why not have one north island port eg POT that acts as an exporting gateway? Land based freight forwarding infrastructure (ie government) expenditure though out the North Island could be focussed on that port. This would mean Govt and ratepayers no longer wasting money on providing expensive roads through downtown Auckland for trucks trying to get to the port. This would stop the need for more reclamation of the Waitemata Harbour and even reduce the present footprint of the onshore component of the port.
In the South Island, Lyttelton is spending millions (of insurance money plus ratepayers money) on rebuilding its port. What for? To compete against other South Island ports (eg Timaru) for the lions share of exports and imports. Again the shipping companies are enjoying a free (or at least cheap) ride subsidised by you and me.
We need to learn from the history of NZ ports and see the same old pattern emerging of capital expenditure being wasted as the port network contracts.
The present port model looks like market failure to me as a ratepayer. Perhaps the government should step in and change this model to benefit the whole of NZ, not just a few large foreign shipping companies? Conversely economics will probably achieve this anyway but it will be a more expensive and slower death for some ports in NZ.

If you can get time read the POT annual report.Really tells you what is happening, and what will happen with NZ ports.

RTM
30-06-2014, 01:23 PM
By having regional ports competing against each other and trying to generate cash for their local rate payers, the large shipping companies like Maersk must be laughing all the way to the bank as they avoid paying the true costs of freight forwarding in NZ. Why not have one north island port eg POT that acts as an exporting gateway? Land based freight forwarding infrastructure (ie government) expenditure though out the North Island could be focussed on that port. This would mean Govt and ratepayers no longer wasting money on providing expensive roads through downtown Auckland for trucks trying to get to the port. This would stop the need for more reclamation of the Waitemata Harbour and even reduce the present footprint of the onshore component of the port.
In the South Island, Lyttelton is spending millions (of insurance money plus ratepayers money) on rebuilding its port. What for? To compete against other South Island ports (eg Timaru) for the lions share of exports and imports. Again the shipping companies are enjoying a free (or at least cheap) ride subsidised by you and me.
We need to learn from the history of NZ ports and see the same old pattern emerging of capital expenditure being wasted as the port network contracts.
The present port model looks like market failure to me as a ratepayer. Perhaps the government should step in and change this model to benefit the whole of NZ, not just a few large foreign shipping companies? Conversely economics will probably achieve this anyway but it will be a more expensive and slower death for some ports in NZ.

Yep. And Auckland would be rejuvenated by having a vibrant harbour area. Cruiseliners, maybe a stadium, inner city living, marina's, harbour access, eateries etc etc. I have wondered if that was where Auckland City council was heading by taking ownership of Ports of Aucklands.

Additionally, probably a reduction in trucks on our roads.

It would take some real leadership and vision by central government tho, more than is being shown by simply straightening out a few curves to allow the trucks to travel faster. Even tho I was/am against asset sales....this would be the kind of infrastructure project that would really take the country ahead.
Great post Arbitrage.

Arbitrage
30-06-2014, 01:54 PM
Yes for those who want an adrenalin rush, try driving around down town Auckland especially between the motorway and the port where you can wrestle for road space with container laden trucks. For an extra thrill I recommend a small old car with no air bags.

Zaphod
30-06-2014, 06:19 PM
By having regional ports competing against each other and trying to generate cash for their local rate payers, the large shipping companies like Maersk must be laughing all the way to the bank as they avoid paying the true costs of freight forwarding in NZ. Why not have one north island port eg POT that acts as an exporting gateway? Land based freight forwarding infrastructure (ie government) expenditure though out the North Island could be focussed on that port.

I agree. There are certainly inefficiencies in NZ's distributed port infrastructure and establishing one or two major deep-water hubs, with sea/land/air connections to other regions would resolve most of these issues, however government intervention that creates a private monopoly has generally been unpalatable to the NZ voter. Many regional ports are profitable and are sold to ratepayers as a method to keep rates down, with any attempt to forcibly divest the asset meeting with a potentially severe backlash. the On this basis I think that local/national Government intervention would be a hard sell and so your latter point of a slow death for some (but certainly not all) ports is the most likely outcome.

Zaphod
30-06-2014, 06:21 PM
Yep. And Auckland would be rejuvenated by having a vibrant harbour area. Cruiseliners, maybe a stadium, inner city living, marina's, harbour access, eateries etc etc. I have wondered if that was where Auckland City council was heading by taking ownership of Ports of Aucklands.

Auckland's current port location has certainly had it's day. Perhaps that's where Northport can play a role to allow rejuvenation on the inner Auckland harbour? This is the cycle that plays out in every city and one day, will apply to Tauranga too.

Arbitrage
01-07-2014, 07:48 AM
Hi Zaphod. I understand that the problem with Northport is the rail link to Auckland. Apparently the tunnels are too small to handle the type of freight required to be transhipped and it would be uneconomic to upgrade. Perhaps someone else may be able to enlighten this?

Marilyn Munroe
01-07-2014, 01:03 PM
Hi Zaphod. I understand that the problem with Northport is the rail link to Auckland. Apparently the tunnels are too small to handle the type of freight required to be transhipped and it would be uneconomic to upgrade. Perhaps someone else may be able to enlighten this?

Actually rather than Gerry Brownlee(The Colossus of Rhodes) spending billions on the Holiday Highway he could have got better bang-for-his-buck and made a superior contibution to economic development in Northland if had spent less money, upgraded the Northland Rail Line and built a rail spur to Marsden Point.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

percy
01-07-2014, 02:12 PM
Actually rather than Gerry Brownlee(The Colossus of Rhodes) spending billions on the Holiday Highway he could have got better bang-for-his-buck and made a superior contibution to economic development in Northland if had spent less money, upgraded the Northland Rail Line and built a rail spur to Marsden Point.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn
MM.Would have to agree with you.

RTM
01-07-2014, 02:13 PM
Yep...but that would have required thinking outside the box a bit. Completely agree that that needs to happen.

One wonders if JK and his mates are waiting / hoping to see if POT / Northport will fund the work themselves !



Actually rather than Gerry Brownlee(The Colossus of Rhodes) spending billions on the Holiday Highway he could have got better bang-for-his-buck and made a superior contibution to economic development in Northland if had spent less money, upgraded the Northland Rail Line and built a rail spur to Marsden Point.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

percy
01-07-2014, 02:28 PM
Yep...but that would have required thinking outside the box a bit. Completely agree that that needs to happen.

One wonders if JK and his mates are waiting / hoping to see if POT / Northport will fund the work themselves !

Think you are right.!!!

Marilyn Munroe
02-07-2014, 02:13 PM
.... and trains take 3.5 -5.5 hours to come to Auckland.
when they take extra ships it can take an extra two days to get the containers to Auckland


There is also a capacity problem with rail in the South Island. The section of track between Oamaru and Dunedin cannot handle large trains beacause of the difficult geography. It is particulary bad on the section around the cliffs between Port Chalmers and Waitati.

It not a problem at the moment because the volume of freight does not put this bottleneck under pressure. However if Silver Fern Farms and Fontera were to rail everything from Dunedin and south to Timaru it could become a problem.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

percy
02-07-2014, 03:48 PM
Perhaps the $80mil,$60mil,$40mil expected to be spent dredging POA,LPC etc would be better spent on railway tracks and tunnels?

Zaphod
02-07-2014, 06:50 PM
Hi Zaphod. I understand that the problem with Northport is the rail link to Auckland. Apparently the tunnels are too small to handle the type of freight required to be transhipped and it would be uneconomic to upgrade. Perhaps someone else may be able to enlighten this?

If that's the case then remediation could be a very long time away as the capital cost would be significant. Perhaps NPC/POT and POA (in this unholy alliance) are banking on the Northland economy booming? Or perhaps road and coastal shipping could provide an interim solutions? Whatever the case, there is obviously a long-term strategic vision at play.


Hi Arbitage
same issue for POT, there is only one line from hamilton to Tauranga (and the kaimai tunnel) and trains take 3.5 -5.5 hours to come to Auckland.
when they take extra ships it can take an extra two days to get the containers to Auckland
Disc holding

Weren't the RTA lobbying for a truck tunnel for the Kaimai's? I never heard a peep from Kiwirail which surprises me.

blocker3
03-07-2014, 07:16 PM
Hi Arbitage
same issue for POT, there is only one line from hamilton to Tauranga (and the kaimai tunnel) and trains take 3.5 -5.5 hours to come to Auckland.
when they take extra ships it can take an extra two days to get the containers to Auckland
Disc holding

Hi dino4abcoach.

Quote:when they take extra ships it can take an extra two days to get the containers to Auckland.

Sorry but I think your personal opinion has no grounds or facts. Where did that come from.......
I honestly disagree with you on this one. A derailment would be the only cause for delay that I see .Cheers Blocker3

Disc Still continue to hold POT shares

blocker3
04-07-2014, 05:50 AM
Hi blocker
I work in the industry and have to placate clients when containers are slow to move up.
the problem is not POT, but the rail from Hamilton to trg, they cant ramp up extra trains as its single lane.
I went on the POT industry rail trip a couple of years ago and saw first hand, took us 5 hours to get there. we had to slow constantly to slow speeds as parts of the track required maintenance and had to wait 20 minutes before we could go through the tunnel (for the fumes to clear) as a train had gone before us

Additional exchange and import volume 9th to 14th JulyDear Customer

Additional vessel exchange and import volume have been confirmed at Tauranga Container Terminal, as such demand for our MetroPort service between Tauranga Container Terminal and MetroPort Auckland will be higher than normal during the period Wednesday 9th July to Monday 14th July.

It is advised that our customers manage their cargo delivery through our web based system "ShuttleSelect" to assist in providing a timely delivery of your cargo to MetroPort Auckland.

Hi dino4abcoach

Thank you for your honest opinion. Cheers Blocker

percy
05-07-2014, 03:53 PM
From today's The Press;"Freight deal backs lift in shares value- analyst."
POT.Once dredging was finished,the port would export more dairy products and long term,was also likely to win more non-dairy and import container cargo,"as international shipping lines like Maersk see the benefit of running bigger ships and calling at just one port."
Cargo consolidation in NZ was "inevitable and POT will be the biggest bebeficiary of this consolidation."
"Prime Port in Timaru,where container volumes were expected to quadruple."

Arbitrage
05-07-2014, 04:35 PM
The reporter must have been reading our posts.

percy
05-07-2014, 05:10 PM
The reporter must have been reading our posts.

Don't tell anyone,but the reporter was quoting from........"In a research note,Morningstar said."So Morningstar may have been reading them??? lol.
As a side note we must remember imports as more profitable than exports to a port company,so the fact POT will attract more import container cargo is significant,as it will boost profitability.

blocker3
05-07-2014, 06:30 PM
Don't tell anyone,but the reporter was quoting from........"In a research note,Morningstar said."So Morningstar may have been reading them??? lol.
As a side note we must remember imports as more profitable than exports to a port company,so the fact POT will attract more import container cargo is significant,as it will boost profitability.

Also Percy apart form the Export /Import debate is container storage. The shipping lines need space in ports around the country to store these containers. POT has held their hand up high over the last 2 years or so, and have vastly increased the containers in storage in/around POT.

Totara Street here in the Mount is the prime example of that. Thus the bus ticked for storage is getting clipped more and more for the POT income. Positive thinking for POT.

Cheers

percy
06-07-2014, 07:38 AM
Positive thinking for POT.
Sums up their history,and their/our future.
Maybe time for a ;we are "well positioned." !!! lol.

Snoopy
06-07-2014, 09:58 AM
As a side note we must remember imports as more profitable than exports to a port company,so the fact POT will attract more import container cargo is significant, as it will boost profitability.


That may be true for POT, but not I think as a general rule.

POT is largely an export port. That means more full containers go out than come in as a rule. If POT can gain more import trade that is great because it means that one less empty container has to be transhipped from somewhere else.

I suspect in the case of Ports of Auckland the opposite holds. POA is a net importer so it has a problem of transhipping far more empty containers than they can use to other ports. Therefore in the case of POA exporting more containers is a far better growth strategy for the port than importing more.

Then if you go further afield to Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, importing/exporting is more balanced. I suspect there they are equally happy to import or export more containers to grow the business.

SNOOPY

percy
06-07-2014, 11:17 AM
That may be true for POT, but not I think as a general rule.

POT is largely an export port. That means more full containers go out than come in as a rule. If POT can gain more import trade that is great because it means that one less empty container has to be transhipped from somewhere else.

I suspect in the case of Ports of Auckland the opposite holds. POA is a net importer so it has a problem of transhipping far more empty containers than they can use to other ports. Therefore in the case of POA exporting more containers is a far better growth strategy for the port than importing more.

Then if you go further afield to Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, importing/exporting is more balanced. I suspect there they are equally happy to import or export more containers to grow the business.

SNOOPY

Imports are more profitable as ports are dealing with a number of importers who 'lack muscle'.
Exports are not as profitable as you are dealing with large exporters, such as Fontera and SilverFern,who 'have muscle'.
Commodities, such as coal have very little margin.

percy
06-07-2014, 11:26 AM
Hi percy
I would take what Maersk say as spin for negotiation with the ports, they will always service auckland in some capacity even if not with their own ships, as FF we pick the port we want the contianers to unload or load depending on our clients requirements and connect through the tranship ports with the ship going there.
FYI all the shipping lines coload so just because its a Maersk ship it also carries other shipping lines containers

You are right about shipping companies playing off the port companies,however what the future is about, are big ships making one port call in NZ.That port or hub will be POT not POA or LPC.

Snoopy
06-07-2014, 01:01 PM
Imports are more profitable as ports are dealing with a number of importers who 'lack muscle'.
Exports are not as profitable as you are dealing with large exporters, such as Fontera and SilverFern,who 'have muscle'.


Ah I see the point Percy, and it is a good one. But if exports are not as profitable, how does POT do so well?



Commodities, such as coal have very little margin.


I know when LPC rebuilt their bulk coal loading bay, it was done on what would be seen today as a 'use or pay' deal with teh coal exporter concerned. That is one way to protect your margin!

SNOOPY

percy
06-07-2014, 01:51 PM
POT does so well,being in front of "a wall of wood" and Kiwi Fruit exports,and milk products.It is because of their location.Lowish margins on huge volumes.
Coal or any commodity is low margin.LPC had to protect their capital investment in coal handling facilities.Low margin remains.

blocker3
06-07-2014, 07:44 PM
A great read after being away for the day. Everyone has put excellent points across the table and more so know they what they are talking about .cheers

percy
06-07-2014, 08:29 PM
Snoopy.
May pay to reread posts No.242 to No.255 on LPC thread.I spelt out the future,and the difference between import and export ports on 20-08-2010.
Anyone not knowing what these big ships are, that we are talking about, should Google Emma Maersk.

blocker3
07-07-2014, 05:38 AM
Hi Percy

POT will not see the e-class ships from the POT dredging such as the EMMA Maersk in the short term. She is a 11000 TEU ship and still far to big for POT as she is 397.7 m long. POT is aiming to upping to around the 6000 TEU ships.(twenty-foot equivalent units (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-foot_equivalent_unit) ) ,which is a 14 m draught,and 350 m long.Cheers

percy
07-07-2014, 06:12 AM
Hi Percy

POT will not see the e-class ships from the POT dredging such as the EMMA Maersk in the short term. She is a 11000 TEU ship and still far to big for POT as she is 397.7 m long. POT is aiming to upping to around the 6000 TEU ships.(twenty-foot equivalent units (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-foot_equivalent_unit) ) ,which is a 14 m draught,and 350 m long.Cheers

Thanks blocker3.
Don't know much about ships.
Realistically the 6000 TEU ships at 350m long are huge.
Be well worth a tip to Tauranga to watch one come into berth.

blocker3
07-07-2014, 07:37 AM
Another reason why POT can not take ships like the Emma Maersk is that she is to wide for the POT shore cranes.They are not long enough to reach across to the other side of the ship.They would have to Discharge/Load the Port side first and spin the ship around to Discharge/Load the Starboard side second.This would cause big ballast problems for the ship along with also ship hatch lid problems.

I did have a look at google Percy for the Emma Maersk. I have seen her before but still Wow she is a big girl. Also it is such a small world as you can see all the details of her and see exactly where she is now.

ie tracking 209 Deg southbound off the coast of Spain and doing 19.1 Knotts.

And if anyone wants to look she is in a spot of heavy shipping traffic also, if you zoom out of her once you push the "SHOW ON LIVE MAP "button.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/details/ships/220417000/vessel:EMMA_MAERSK

Lastly do use this web site to look at the ships live around NZ Cheers

ari
07-07-2014, 08:31 AM
Thanks for site blocker3, certainly nicer to use than vesselfinder site.

blocker3
07-07-2014, 09:01 AM
Thanks for site blocker3, certainly nicer to use than vesselfinder site.

No problems ...enjoy

winner69
07-07-2014, 09:30 AM
Thanks for site blocker3, certainly nicer to use than vesselfinder site.

good to see Aratere in port at the moment

blocker3
07-07-2014, 10:26 AM
good to see Aratere in port at the moment

Good to see that you have been having a peepy boo at Wellington winner69 on this web site.Enjoy

pedro.nz
07-07-2014, 11:56 AM
Bit off topic I know but have a look at the traffic in the English channel - scary stuff if you are in a sailboat...
5987

blocker3
07-07-2014, 12:40 PM
Bit off topic I know but have a look at the traffic in the English channel - scary stuff if you are in a sailboat...
5987

Hi pedro.nz

Whilst off topic I will add to the sky's over there in the UK. At the moment it 0230 hrs there, but wait to the morning /daytime there and see whats overhead in the sky.... amaising..

Look at the USA planes heading for the UK for the morning's landings .Like a swarm of bees they are.

Lastly suggest,click on any plane there, and details of it will reveal,or zoom in on your mouse to HEATHROW, LONDON.


http://www.flightradar24.com/41.78,-3.43/3 (http://www.flightradar24.com/41.78,-3.43/3)

Anyone who has not seen this web site will be gob smacked.

Enjoy

Cheers Blocker

Winston001
07-07-2014, 03:38 PM
Cheers Blocker for both links - mind boggling!

percy
07-07-2014, 04:29 PM
Thanks for the links.Certainly is mind boggling.

blocker3
07-07-2014, 06:21 PM
Thanks for the links.Certainly is mind boggling.


Cheers Blocker for both links - mind boggling!

Your welcome.

These 2 sites are still amaising to me also.Even though that I have known about them for 6-8 months ago.

Cheers

Snow Leopard
07-07-2014, 10:56 PM
Bit off topic I know but have a look at the traffic in the English channel - scary stuff if you are in a sailboat...
5987

The pinch point there is the Dover Straits where not only are the big ships running up and down but the Dover-Calais passenger ferries are cutting across.

It is all monitored from the HM Dover Coastguard Operations Room (http://www.panoramio.com/photo/45540857) (built upon an old gun emplacement) and where I spent some time in the late 80's during the installation and commissioning of a new radar system, having designed some of it.

I remember standing at those windows and watching as a SRN4 hovercraft (https://www.flickr.com/photos/59662214@N06/5937745629/) struggled to get into Dover Harbour having been caught out by a sudden storm.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

blocker3
08-07-2014, 12:12 AM
The pinch point there is the Dover Straits where not only are the big ships running up and down but the Dover-Calais passenger ferries are cutting across.

It is all monitored from the HM Dover Coastguard Operations Room (http://www.panoramio.com/photo/45540857) (built upon an old gun emplacement) and where I spent some time in the late 80's during the installation and commissioning of a new radar system, having designed some of it.

I remember standing at those windows and watching as a SRN4 hovercraft (https://www.flickr.com/photos/59662214@N06/5937745629/) struggled to get into Dover Harbour having been caught out by a sudden storm.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

WOW great information and excellent old photo's Paper Tiger.

blocker3
16-07-2014, 08:00 PM
A nice little rise today.

Thank You Maersk line

kanaka
28-01-2015, 01:44 PM
A nice little rise today.

Thank You Maersk line

and still rising, I have a modest holding & thinking of taking profits. Anyone with thoughts on their future prospects

percy
28-01-2015, 02:41 PM
and still rising, I have a modest holding & thinking of taking profits. Anyone with thoughts on their future prospects

Best port in NZ.
Port with the best future in NZ.
NZ's hub port for larger ship visits.
Best location in NZ for a port.
Most proactive port in NZ for customer's requirements.
When you own one of the best utility companies listed on NZX you should never look to sell them.
You may gather I think their future prospects are excellent.! You would be right!

kanaka
28-01-2015, 05:04 PM
Best port in NZ.
Port with the best future in NZ.
NZ's hub port for larger ship visits.
Best location in NZ for a port.
Most proactive port in NZ for customer's requirements.
When you own one of the best utility companies listed on NZX you should never look to sell them.
You may gather I think their future prospects are excellent.! You would be right!

Reminds me of some of the reasons I bought them in the first place, just needed reassuring. Many thanks

blocker3
28-01-2015, 08:53 PM
Reminds me of some of the reasons I bought them in the first place, just needed reassuring. Many thanks


Hi Kanaka

The company has grown to the extent that now POT has multiply streams of income from outside the local gates.

I also own POT share and see that the share price has risen further.

My safe suggestion would be for you to place a stop loss on some shares you want to take profit on. Thats if you feel that it is getting up there as well. That way you get the best of both worlds.

Cheers
Blocker3

samdaman
29-01-2015, 09:04 PM
To throw a stick in the mix here. I think POT has got quite abit ahead of itself. The trend is your friend as they say and I think it's lifted it very nicely over the past year. It's sitting on a PE of around 30 atm the moment which is quite high in terms of it's average PE and the DCF i did gave similar values (indicating it could be overpriced). I'm knackered atm but if anyone wants to delve into it a bit more I'll post the valuation on my blog.

Night

samdaman
31-01-2015, 11:11 AM
A bit late but if anyone wants another opinion on this stock I did a little write up.

POT Valuation (https://marketstuffs.wordpress.com/2015/01/30/port-of-tauranga-pot-nz/)

blocker3
31-01-2015, 02:36 PM
A bit late but if anyone wants another opinion on this stock I did a little write up.

POT Valuation (https://marketstuffs.wordpress.com/2015/01/30/port-of-tauranga-pot-nz/)

Hi samdaman. A good read . Thank you. I can not disagree with you here.

At the POT AGM last year there are alot of senior citizens .I feel that alot of these people purchased the IPO May 1992 at $1.05 and are still holding. These people do not trade at all and like me enjoy the free afternoon tea afterwards.

So I feel lastly POT trades on alot of light volumes.This I think has pushed the price up slowly.

percy
04-02-2015, 04:52 PM
Well POTters we achieved an all time high of $18.00 today .!!
Those who have held for a year have enjoyed a 27.42% sp rise plus divies.Those who have held for 5 years, a 150% rise plus divies,while The Blue Rinse Brigade who have held since 2000 have enjoyed a 441.74% sp increase plus divies.Certainly beats bank deposit rates.

macduffy
04-02-2015, 04:57 PM
I deny having a blue rinse!

Who is this whippersnapper who calls him/herself percy?

:D

percy
04-02-2015, 05:02 PM
I deny having a blue rinse!

Who is this whippersnapper who calls him/herself percy?

:D
A pensioner who has too little hair to dye.!! lol.
And talking of snapper are you catching enough?

blocker3
04-02-2015, 07:44 PM
Well POTters we achieved an all time high of $18.00 today .!!
Those who have held for a year have enjoyed a 27.42% sp rise plus divies.Those who have held for 5 years, a 150% rise plus divies,while The Blue Rinse Brigade who have held since 2000 have enjoyed a 441.74% sp increase plus divies.Certainly beats bank deposit rates.

percy,thank you for the facts above on my POT shares that I have had for a few years or so. However I am very concerned now that the POT share price getting ahead of itself .................

...No Blue Rince here, however I do have some gray hairs around the ears.

Lastly samdaman has a good sum up on #89 entry


A bit late but if anyone wants another opinion on this stock I did a little write up.

POT Valuation (https://marketstuffs.wordpress.com/2015/01/30/port-of-tauranga-pot-nz/)

percy
04-02-2015, 08:18 PM
On the thread "where to invest?" on 01-10-2011 I suggested PO Ttrading at $7.04.
It was felt, at the time, they should split the shares as the share price was getting too high.
It was also felt the shares were over valued.High PE, low yield.
Interesting!!

blocker3
05-02-2015, 07:32 AM
It will be interesting today to see if the Bears come out.

dingoNZ
05-02-2015, 07:34 AM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11396565

Positive for POT, they have a diversified revenue stream from all over the country and have potential for further growth. I see them as one of the best infrastructure investments available on the NZX behind IFT. Great growth potential, excellent future prospects, good management and the pay good dividends, whats not to like?

Harvey Specter
05-02-2015, 08:47 AM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11396565

Positive for POT, they have a diversified revenue stream from all over the country and have potential for further growth. I see them as one of the best infrastructure investments available on the NZX behind IFT. Great growth potential, excellent future prospects, good management and the pay good dividends, whats not to like?Its their investment in Northport (50%) that is interesting. How long can POA survive if they want to expand into the Harbour. Cant see it being allowed so the obvious alternative is to move to Port Whangarei. POA hold an indirect 10% but POT holds a direct 50%. I dont really follow this company after I missed out at $5 :(

blocker3
05-02-2015, 09:22 AM
Northport will expand in time. But not yet. However I feel that Timiru is the hot spot for POT at the moment and that is where the money will be going.

Target one hub North island (Tauranga), one hub south Island (Timaru)

IAK
05-02-2015, 11:26 AM
The BOP Regional Council, who own 55% of POT, must be laughing all the way to the bank.

percy
21-02-2015, 09:43 AM
Well the market has marked the sp back with the flat result.
Log volumes caused the slow down.
Pleasing to see SI imports are increasing.
I hold and will continue to hold ,as I feel they are NZ's best port operators,and future growth prospects are excellent.

kanaka
21-02-2015, 02:52 PM
It was felt, at the time, they should split the shares as the share price was getting too high.
It was also felt the shares were over valued.High PE, low yield.
Interesting!!
I concur I would think at the price etc at the moment they should be looking at a 3/1 split[/QUOTE]

Sorry, can't see the sense it won't affect any values.
Some people may see a low share price = value
I see a high share price = quality

ari
20-03-2015, 10:57 AM
www.stopstealingourharbour.co.nz is gaining momentum.......which has to be all good for POT

percy
20-03-2015, 12:28 PM
I note Pacificia Shipping have announced they are starting a service using Timaru.

Mista_Trix
20-03-2015, 02:44 PM
www.stopstealingourharbour.co.nz (http://www.stopstealingourharbour.co.nz) is gaining momentum.......which has to be all good for POT

And an associated article - can only mean good things long term for POT - surely.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11420440

percy
05-08-2015, 12:54 PM
On the thread "where to invest?" on 01-10-2011 I suggested PO Ttrading at $7.04.
It was felt, at the time, they should split the shares as the share price was getting too high.
It was also felt the shares were over valued.High PE, low yield.
Interesting!!

Well in some ways a sad day for me, as I sold my beloved POT at $17.50 . They have been very kind to me.
Have recycled the funds into STU, as I feel the growth and yield will be better over the next three years.

bohemian
05-08-2015, 04:01 PM
I am also going to sell some POT.NZ after a very long time. I will adding to my over weight holding of FPH.

Marilyn Munroe
07-08-2015, 05:22 PM
Spent apporox half an hour this afternoon looking over the fence of POT's inland port at Rolleston. Here are my observations;

There were very few containers in the yard. Those that were there appeared to belong to a local container storage leasing company.

I observed no trucks arriving or departing. The reach-stacker never moved while I was watching nor any other equipment such as forklifts.

There were half a dozen empty container rail wagons in the siding. I saw no movements to load them.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Jay
08-08-2015, 10:15 AM
Silly question maybe MM was there a ship in :-)

Could explain it!

Marilyn Munroe
08-08-2015, 11:16 PM
Silly question maybe MM was there a ship in :-)

Could explain it!

I can't explain it.

After the way it was talked up I was supprised to see so little activity.

Boop boop de do
Mariyln

Sideshow Bob
09-08-2015, 12:57 PM
A company talking up their operations!! :eek2:

I suppose just just takes some time to get rolling. Timaru's container traffic would be pretty small currently??

Snoopy
09-08-2015, 01:34 PM
I can't explain it.

After the way it was talked up I was surprised to see so little activity.


Perhaps the low activity at POT Rolleston just reflects the low point in the dairy season, because the cows have largely been dried off? IOW little product available for shipping at this time?

SNOOPY

Sideshow Bob
09-08-2015, 01:57 PM
Indeed Snoopdog. Kotahi (majority owned by Fonterra) have a few percent ownership in POT and are focused on Maersk, so guess prefer to go through Timaru if it works.

Xerof
09-08-2015, 02:23 PM
The inland port would begin operations "as soon as we can get some cargo," Cairns said.

from Stuff article 31 July 2015

i read another article that said early activity might focus around empty container storage??

Nasi Goreng
10-06-2016, 06:03 PM
$20!!!

Loving this quiet boring company. Investors must be getting excited about bigger ships arriving after the dredging is completed later this year.

mshierlaw
10-06-2016, 09:13 PM
Long time between drinks (posts) in this thread.

$20 ... will it hold?
What will future dividends look like after the major CAP EX's are completed?
How could I have possibly doubted my wife when she wanted to buy these 2 1/2 years ago?

Nasi Goreng
11-06-2016, 03:49 PM
It will be really interesting to see the profitability a year from now when the dredging work will be complete and it will have had a good 6 months of larger ships visiting. I expect good dividend growth over the next 5 years, it's one to just buy and hold.

Re- long time between posts, it's amazing that little is said about some of the best stocks on the NZX. I hope most do not just look at the stocks that are widely discussed here.

ari
18-08-2016, 12:13 PM
Happy with this lot after broker did his best to talk it down last week.......18/08/2016 09:28
FLLYR
PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 0928 HRS Port of Tauranga Limited (NS)

FLLYR: POT: POTL Financial Results For The Year Ended 30 June 2016

Port of Tauranga Completes Major Five Year Expansion Programme & Targets $140
Million Capital Return to Shareholders

FINANCIAL RESULTS FOR THE YEAR TO 30 JUNE 2016
Strong container volumes offset a fall in log exports
Highlights:
o Net Profit After Tax down 2.4% to $77.3 million following increase in
depreciation charges and downturn in log volumes
o Parent EBITDA rises 2.2% to $125.7 million as strong growth in container
traffic offsets a decline in log exports
o Container volumes increase 12.1% to just over 950,000 TEUs
o First 9,500 TEU ships to start calling at Port of Tauranga in October after
channel dredging completed and landside facilities upgraded
o Final dividend of 30 cents per share lifts total dividends to 53 cents per
share - up 1.9% on the prior year
o Special dividend of $34 million, or 25 cents per share, announced as part
of a capital restructure targeting to return $140 million to shareholders
over the next four years
o Improved health and safety performance - Total Recordable Injury Frequency
Rate (TRIFR) down 62% to 5.6 (per million hours exposure)

Parent EBITDA for the year to 30 June 2016 rose 2.2% to $125.7 million from
$123 million in the prior year as container traffic rose 12.1% to a record of
more than 954,000 TEUs - up from 851,000 TEUs in the prior year.

These gains were offset by a decline in bulk cargoes reflecting continuing
challenges in New Zealand's forestry and agricultural sectors. Notably, log
exports fell more than one million tonnes with declines also in imported
stock feed and fertiliser.

Reported revenues fell to $245.5 million from $268.5 million, due to a $32
million decrease in revenue as a result of having to equity account Tapper
Transport as an associate company within our Coda partnership.

Net Profit After Tax fell 2.4% to $77.3 million as the Company's largely
completed $350 million five year investment programme resulted in higher
depreciation charges, which are up $2.7 million in the current year alone.

Port of Tauranga Chairman, David Pilkington, said: "We are very pleased with
the progress that has been made against our long term strategy to extend our
freight catchment to become the country's leading freight gateway and to
prepare to welcome the arrival of the large ships into New Zealand waters.

"Strategic initiatives such as our alliance with OJI Fibre Solutions, Kotahi
and Zespri / Total Kiwifruit Logistics continue to drive a strong increase in
container volumes to the port. These initiatives have also insulated the
Company from this year's significant reduction in log exports.

"Our strategy has allowed the Company to make the significant investment
required to host the next generation of big ships without compromising our
commitment to deliver sustainable returns to our shareholders.

"It is also delivering benefits to the broader New Zealand economy. Following
the completion of dredging to deepen and widen the port's shipping channels,
the first of these large container ships is set to visit in October. Over the
long term, large ships have the potential to deliver in excess of $300
million in annual savings to the country's exporters and importers .

"Port of Tauranga continues to consolidate its position as the country's
leading freight gateway. With our $350 million five year investment programme
largely complete, we have capacity to continue to grow freight volumes for
the foreseeable future and importantly relieve constraints now emerging
elsewhere in the country's port infrastructure.

"As signalled at our Annual Shareholder Meeting last year, the Board has
reviewed our capital structure following completion of a major investment
programme and today announced a return of $34 million to shareholders by way
of a special fully-imputed dividend of 25 cents per share. This is the first
tranche of what is targeted to be up to $140 million to be returned to
shareholders over the next four years. The final amount returned is dependent
on our requirements to fund any potential future growth initiatives," Mr
Pilkington said.

Directors have also declared a 30 cent fully-imputed final dividend, which
combined with the special dividend lifts total payments to shareholders for
the 2016 financial year to 78 cents per share. The record date for dividend
entitlements is 23 September 2016 and the payment date is 7 October 2016.

Mr Pilkington said the capital restructure will ensure the Company has a more
efficient Balance Sheet, remains financially strong and returns excess
capital to shareholders in a tax efficient manner.

"A return of the full $140 million to shareholders would still ensure the
Company retains a conservatively geared balance sheet and an investment grade
credit rating," Mr Pilkington said.

Separately, the Company today announces a share split. Shareholders will
receive five ordinary shares for every one ordinary share held at 5 pm on the
record date of 17 October 2016.

"The share split, which followed strong enquiry from Port of Tauranga's
retail shareholders and share market analysts, is a measure taken to enhance
liquidity in the market for shares," Mr Pilkington said

"Port of Tauranga is in a sound financial position with strong prospects. We
are looking ahead to the future with confidence."

Port of Tauranga Chief Executive, Mark Cairns, said: "The arrival of the
first large ships in October will usher in a new era of sea-borne freight
transport in New Zealand.

"And it is not just larger container ships that are calling at Tauranga. The
200 metre long 35,000 tonne SBI Maia, chartered by TPT Forests, the world's
largest log carrier, has also started calling and we will host Royal
Caribbean International's mega cruise ship Ovation of the Seas this summer.

"It is gratifying to see our new infrastructure, including the recently
deepened and widened shipping channel, being used so quickly after so many
years of hard work.

"Port of Tauranga is the first New Zealand port able to berth ships this
size. The efficiencies they will bring and the potential costs savings for
New Zealand importers and exporters are significant. We have achieved this
result through careful cultivation of strategic partnerships with major
exporters."

Port of Tauranga Chairman, David Pilkington, said: "It is clear that port
capacity in Auckland is becoming constrained. Thanks to our investment
programme, our extensive Tauranga land holdings and our rail-linked MetroPort
facility in Onehunga, we can significantly expand the volume of imports that
can be delivered into Auckland.

"Such an approach will have the additional benefit of reducing traffic flows
in downtown Auckland and negate the need to expand the city's port operations
further into the Waitemata Harbour.

"We are willing to engage in a rigorous economic study to examine the optimal
port capacity solution for the upper North Island. However, we are optimistic
that ultimately, the market will drive any rationalisation required. The
arrival of bigger ships - and the efficiencies they can bring - will be a
game changer."

Operational Developments
The channel dredging project has now been completed ahead of time and below
budget. The port's shipping channels have now been widened and deepened, to
14.5 metres inside the harbour entrance and 15.8 metres outside the harbour.

Port of Tauranga has examined every aspect of its landside operations to
ensure it is able to handle the much larger transfers of cargo required when
servicing larger vessels. Two additional cranes and 13 additional straddles
have now been delivered.

KiwiRail is investing $15 million in upgrading its facilities at MetroPort
Auckland, which saw an increase of 39% in containers volumes during the
financial year. Meanwhile, in the South Island, Timaru Container Terminal
reached an all-time record in container volumes of 84,402 TEUs - up 18% on
the previous year.

South Island-based customers are now able to access the MetroPort
Christchurch intermodal freight hub at Rolleston, which can consolidate
imports and exports for rail transfer to and from the Timaru terminal.

Cargo Trends
Total trade in the 2016 financial year decreased 0.3% to 20.1 million tonnes.
Exports decreased by 1.2% to 13.1 million tonnes, while imports increased by
1.4% to seven million tonnes.

Container traffic continued to grow apace, with container throughput
increasing 12.1% to 954,006 TEUs. The largest increase in containers was in
imports, which increased by 34,260 TEUs.

Milk powder exports increased 21.5% in volume, to just over two million
tonnes. Kiwifruit volumes increased 21.1% and are expected to continue
growing at this rate. Volumes of value-added forest products also increased,
including pulp and paper exports growing by 5%.

Exports of logs decreased 18.2% in volume to 4.6 million tonnes. Dairy
industry-related imports decreased, including fertilisers (down 10% to
472,000 tonnes), and stock feed (down 28.2% to 1.073 million tonnes).
Outlook
Over the last four years, the Company has managed to maintain Net Profit
After Tax despite a reduction in log export volumes of more than one million
tonnes and an increase in interest and depreciation charges of $9.5 million
relating to the $350 million capital expenditure programme.

"As previously guided, following the introduction of the new shipping
services we expect to handle over one million TEUs in the year ended June
2017. We expect to see log exports increase to 2015 levels with other export
cargoes, such as kiwifruit, expected to continue their strong growth
trajectory," Mr Cairns said.

"Port of Tauranga will remain somewhat protected from severe fluctuations in
trade through its diverse cargoes, income sources and locations, as well as
its long term freight agreements with major exporters. We are looking ahead
to the remainder of the year with confidence and expect earnings growth to
recommence."

"We will provide 2016/2017 full year earnings guidance at our Annual
Shareholder Meeting on 20 October 2016, when we have a better feel for the
first quarter's trade volume" said Mr Cairns.

For further details, contact:
Mark Cairns
Chief Executive
Port of Tauranga Limited
Mob: 021 978 887 http://www.port-tauranga.co.nz/Media-Room

David Pilkington
Chairman
Port of Tauranga Limited
Mob: 021 609 635

GTM 3442
18-08-2016, 12:50 PM
The share split is fascinating. Are Kiwis afraid of high prices for successful companies? The Pak'n'Save syndrome?

macduffy
18-08-2016, 01:25 PM
The share split is fascinating. Are Kiwis afraid of high prices for successful companies? The Pak'n'Save syndrome?

Yes, it seems so. The theory is that a more "accessible" shareprice would encourage more investors into investing. Prices in the teens and hundreds of dollars and pounds doesn't seem to have deterred investment in other markets!

mshierlaw
18-08-2016, 05:09 PM
It will be really interesting to see the profitability a year from now when the dredging work will be complete and it will have had a good 6 months of larger ships visiting. I expect good dividend growth over the next 5 years, it's one to just buy and hold.

Re- long time between posts, it's amazing that little is said about some of the best stocks on the NZX. I hope most do not just look at the stocks that are widely discussed here.

Today we have our answer to the future divi question. 140M more for investors in next 4 years, on todays price about 5.6% gross yield.

The market is not jumping for joy today, I'm having a nice G&T on this result.

As above .... will the split result in increased volume, well if your like me .... I'm just sitting on them.

Onion
18-08-2016, 06:52 PM
The market is not jumping for joy today, I'm having a nice G&T on this result.

Woohoo - my little parcel is up $3.75 today -- so I'll settle for a small G&T thanks.

Joshuatree
18-08-2016, 07:53 PM
Climbed those 550 plus steps up mount maunganui this beautiful morn and noted that the two dredging ships were not working. The future looks proofed for POT; 200 metre 35,000 tonne ships already coming !!

babymonster
19-08-2016, 10:24 AM
i am not really convince where they are going to find growth?

Nasi Goreng
19-08-2016, 02:24 PM
i am not really convince where they are going to find growth?

Well POT have said numerous times that the dredging project will eventually save NZ exporters up to 300M per year. If POT can't grab 10% of that, I would say it would be a missed opportunity... and a complete waste of cap-ex.

macduffy
23-08-2016, 12:42 PM
Yes, it seems so. The theory is that a more "accessible" shareprice would encourage more investors into investing. Prices in the teens and hundreds of dollars and pounds doesn't seem to have deterred investment in other markets!

Just noting, DMP - Domino's Pizza - trading around the $77 mark.

:ohmy:

babymonster
21-09-2016, 10:04 AM
POT looks like going to break above the resistance of 20.00... Technically very healthy looking.. fingers crossed.

babymonster
21-09-2016, 12:16 PM
saying it too early... lol

Joshuatree
14-10-2016, 10:24 PM
POTZ trading @ $3.89 ;POT $19.45 with the 5 to one split happening. In almost all share splits I've observed in the past the post split price drops below where it should be. This could be the exception.

glennj
16-10-2016, 11:51 AM
POTZ trading @ $3.89 ;POT $19.45 with the 5 to one split happening. In almost all share splits I've observed in the past the post split price drops below where it should be. This could be the exception.

So it is trading where it should be! I've seen plenty of "splits" ending up trading higher than where they theoretically should.
With POT it is worth remembering that it is recently ex 55c of div & special div so it is akin to still being around the $20 mark cum div.

malus
17-10-2016, 06:36 AM
I'm going to ASM on Thursday... anyone else going?

Marilyn Munroe
17-10-2016, 11:55 AM
I'm going to ASM on Thursday... anyone else going?

Ask the top table for the number of TEU movements through their Rolleston inland port.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

bohemian
17-10-2016, 12:09 PM
I'll predict not very many.

malus
18-10-2016, 09:14 AM
Ask the top table for the number of TEU movements through their Rolleston inland port.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Yes will check this out MM... annual report says the Timaru Container Terminal handled 18% more cargo during the year and "our South Island-based customers are also starting to utilise our new intermodal freight hub at Rolleston... and (it) is used for receipt, packing and distribution of containerised cargo, as well as an empty container depot."

bohemian... I assume your comment gives a knowledgeable local view of activity... interested to know if its fact, feeling or observation that generated the comment?

malus
18-10-2016, 10:12 AM
i am not really convince where they are going to find growth?

Hmm... I believe they will... they have over the past 25 years I have been an investor.

POT is my oldest holding and currently shows in my portfolio at a return of 17.7%pa compounding over that time. These days it pays me annual dividends well in excess of what I paid for the shares back then.

My view is the Company has "moat" like qualities and benefits greatly in that it is governed as a commercial company (unlike its peers) and has therefore evolved into NZ's leading port.

So I think it will grow, as it has done since it has been a listed public company.

How much growth there is likely to be in the short term and whether at the current share price it's a buy is another matter.

I'm happy to hold... take my dividends... and receive a nice capital return over the next four years... the growth will come and may be when Mr Market has a bout of depression in the future I'll add to my holding!

Joshuatree
18-10-2016, 10:35 AM
Just looking at the growth here in Tauranga let alone Auckland and the rest of NZ, except rural i can see that there will be no problem with Import growth and our primary Industries esp dairy,meat,kiwifruit, avos , logs etc are as strong as ever or more so, for export, 80!! cruise ships coming in this year, a record i think. Dredging allows bigger ships in now.Auck port clogged up space wise and red tape wise.

Joshuatree
18-10-2016, 10:51 AM
BTW craigs have a value of $3.43 (x5=$17.14) currently with a downgrade/neutral bias(overvalued on fundamentals.S/P down 5c to $3.80 atm.

babymonster
18-10-2016, 11:37 AM
ports and airports are bond proxy, so no surprised the drop.. good company tho..

percy
18-10-2016, 06:56 PM
Hmm... I believe they will... they have over the past 25 years I have been an investor.

POT is my oldest holding and currently shows in my portfolio at a return of 17.7%pa compounding over that time. These days it pays me annual dividends well in excess of what I paid for the shares back then.

My view is the Company has "moat" like qualities and benefits greatly in that it is governed as a commercial company (unlike its peers) and has therefore evolved into NZ's leading port.

So I think it will grow, as it has done since it has been a listed public company.

How much growth there is likely to be in the short term and whether at the current share price it's a buy is another matter.

I'm happy to hold... take my dividends... and receive a nice capital return over the next four years... the growth will come and may be when Mr Market has a bout of depression in the future I'll add to my holding!
I agree with you "moat" view.
I agree it is NZ's best port.
I agree it is really NZ's "hub" port.
I disagree with the market valuing approx 5% to 10% growth with a PE of 33.ie 33 years of earnings.
Sold,but did not like doing so.I am more focussed on companies whose growth rate is the same or lower than their PE.
FPH I also sold as I thought they would struggle to get more than 17% growth, and their PE was more than twice that at 36.

malus
18-10-2016, 07:20 PM
I agree with you "moat" view.
I agree it is NZ's best port.
I agree it is really NZ's "hub" port.
I disagree with the market valuing approx 5% to 10% growth with a PE of 33.ie 33 years of earnings.
Sold,but did not like doing so.I am more focussed on companies whose growth rate is the same or lower than their PE.
FPH I also sold as I thought they would struggle to get more than 17% growth, and their PE was more than twice that at 36.

Thanks for sharing your sales logic Percy.

percy
18-10-2016, 07:34 PM
Thanks for sharing your sales logic Percy.

Logic is wrong.!!!!
Meant I am looking for companies whose eps growth rate is the same or higher than their PE.
So a company whose growth rate is 12% to 14% and their PE is 12 or lower is a buy.
Companies whose PE is a lot higher than their growth rate I am selling.ie growth rate is 10% and their PE is say 20 I am selling.
I will admit I have not sold AIA whose PE is about 30 and whose growth rate will be under 10..
Must be an exception to ever rule.?,lol.

Joshuatree
20-10-2016, 12:25 PM
Annual G meeting started at 1pm.S/P up 10c atp.

babymonster
20-10-2016, 12:42 PM
should have online asm like airnz

babymonster
20-10-2016, 02:35 PM
Annual G meeting started at 1pm.S/P up 10c atp.
fade away quickly... 1st quarter is not as good as people expected, maybe

Marilyn Munroe
27-10-2016, 01:20 PM
Port of Tauranga tell us port consolidation and big container ships are coming.

It ain't necessarily so, says the chair of Southport.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1610/S00685/small-container-ships-expected-to-keep-servicing-small-ports.htm

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

malus
28-10-2016, 03:30 PM
A few comments from attending the AGM:

Regarding Rolleston throughput, seems Lyttelton has been self-promoting their inland container arrangements at Rolleston and bagging POTprogress… Mark Cairnes was upbeat, and while not prepared to disclose their site throughput, confidently said “watch this space”.

As to the “hub port” concept and aggregation at Tauranga, it’s all go. Interestingly having facilitated the calling of Maersk 9500 TCUships Mark Cairnes sees an opportunity to act as a hub port for an increasing amount of Australian sourced container cargo. He says the Aussie ports have not yet invested to service these size ships (I see on Port Melbourne web page the largest it has received is a 7500TCU ship), also there is a reduced sailing time for these ships to call at Tauranga and then head directly to North Asia, apparently (something to do with the depth of water around Cape York and theTorresStrait) … not being a mariner I’m not sure how this works, will have to have a closer look at the world map and the sailing lanes these ships use to understand how this comes about.

Interestingly, I was in New Plymouth the previous week at a property investors conference and during bus trip of the local area it was noted that previously busy cool stores aggregating dairy product for export through Port New Plymouth were now little used… the product now dispatched from factory by container to directly to Tauranga under the Kotahi 10 year joint venture.

Both Chair and Management very diplomatic about comment on the Auckland Port situation and its future, however POT Auckland Metro Port handled 260,000 TCU annually (4th largest container port in the county) and continues to grow as does the train shuttles between Auckland and Tauranga.

The Chair had this to say:

”Our $350 million investment programme, our extensive land holdings in Tauranga, and our rail-linkedMetroPort facility in Auckland, have readied us for this future expansion.

Many of you will be aware of thefuture port study recently undertaken on behalf of Ports of Auckland, in a bid to address the capacity constraints on the existing facilities there.

One of the proposals outlined inthe plan is that of a new mega port on the Firth of Thames to accommodate Auckland and Tauranga cargo growth over the next 50 years.

We have seen no economicjustification for this idea, nor have we been privy to the assumptions that led to it. What we do know is that we can significantly expand the volume of imports we can deliver into Auckland, without adding to traffic flows in downtown Auckland. Ultimately, we believe the market will drive any rationalisation required, and we are about to see the efficiencies that can be had from the arrival of bigger ships."


Log volume through the port eased last year, but is expected to improve to more normal volumes this year.

Touched on key risks, the Chair more generally advising the meeting all public Companies likely to be called upon to give greater risk disclosure in annual reporting. Clearly response to ship grounding is vividly to mind with the Rena incident, and Mark Cairnes spoke of the recent fuel pipeline clean up, whilst this involved a client’s infrastructure, it resulted in a discharge within the port and so this type of risk has been revisited with POT requiring port clients to provide evidence of infrastructural survey and maintenance. After the meeting I discussed cover for geological disturbance with Mark Cairnes. POT are acutely aware of Lyttelton’s claim experience which was complex and resulted in an early advance of $50m odd and a final settlement of $440m some 3 ½ years after the event and he assured me robust arrangements are in place with brokers and insurers/reinsurers.

Generally confident about future growth and space available to expand.

FY 17 profit projection $79-$83m remains “steady” rather than bullish.:mellow:

I note MM’s comment from Port Southland, yes there is surplus capacity and smaller container ships are available to call and still do,I guess there are questions going forward: which lines can ride out the shipping surplus without going broke and where are the efficiencies to be gained in container shipping? POT believe aggregation and shipping from hub ports are the way of the future and have invested in the space and facilities to cater for that demand.

As to the fully imputed special capital release of 25c per share over the next three years, this will happen subject to no unforeseen capital projects coming along. POT increase borrowings to cover this and allows built up imputation credits to be released to shareholders.

Good crowd turned out to ASM, many locals I suspect, having chatted over afternoon tea, many, including me, went portside by bus for a tour and staff commentary… certainly running a port of that scale is a logistical challenge with many clients to massage and co-ordinate efficiently… however, as a shareholder I do like the 30% net margin POT manages to glean out of its clients.:)

Spent a couple of days in the Bay of Plenty and spoke to a number locals, interesting to note that all I encountered were supportive of the Port, its growth and vibrancy the Port brings to town.

percy
28-10-2016, 03:56 PM
Malus.
Thanks for sharing .
Excellent commentary.
Interesting using POT as the hub for the Aussies too.

Joshuatree
28-10-2016, 10:56 PM
Yes thanks for sharing malus; appreciate it.:t_up:

ados_nz
02-02-2017, 08:31 AM
Can anyone shed some light on the recent increases of POT? Up more than 15c yesterday...?

Nasi Goreng
02-02-2017, 11:14 AM
Not any 1 reason but the major capex projects are complete, bigger ships are arriving, higher volumes are being forecast, nice dividend, continued growth.

Technically $20 pre split and $4 since the split was a major resistance. It's bust through $4 now and I think $4 becomes resistance with good upside.

percy
02-02-2017, 11:39 AM
A PE of 38.2 is in actual fact the sp is over 38 years earnings!!.
So will growth be over 20% or over 30%pa?

Nasi Goreng
02-02-2017, 12:10 PM
I don't think so but barring a natural disaster, POT will still be there in 100 years where many growth companies with growth rates of 20-30% may not.

percy
02-02-2017, 12:12 PM
I don't think so but barring a natural disaster, POT will still be there in 100 years where many growth companies with growth rates of 20-30% may not.

Agreed.
I expect they will move over to the ASX.!..lol.

malus
02-02-2017, 02:53 PM
Can anyone shed some light on the recent increases of POT? Up more than 15c yesterday...?

Good question... not really able to help... interestingly, at the AGM main reason for share split was to provide more stock liquidity... looking at the charts daily volumes traded are up, but I'm not sure that daily trading value is much different? May be punters pushing price on because they "seem cheaper"?

Hamburg-Sud to put a few bigger container ships through the port during peak kiwifruit season
http://www.findata.co.nz/News/49273894/HamburgSud_to_begin_big_ship_visits_to_Tauranga.ht m

Probably picking up some of Wellington's Centre Port trade while it picks itself up from earthquake damage and is probably handling some of the coastal shipping trade that previously went down the main trunk rail line.

One assumes POT efficiently clicking the ticket as goods flow through it's Ports.

Workers at Lyttelton grumpy, citizens of Auckland don't want the Port messing around in their water way playground... what's an unloved port(s) to do?? Answer let the citizens of Tauranga and their Port find solutions to get the goods moving!

So no real answers for you ados other than perhaps punters think they want to own a piece of the best port in the land... and why not.

percy
02-02-2017, 03:44 PM
Totally agree with your comments.
Just the valuation, or the price one has to pay,I have trouble with.
Had a bit of a chuckle to myself when I read Lyttelton Port's Union were again unhappy.Wondered whether POT made contribution to The People's Republic of Christchurch LPC Union funds?POT's best friends!!..lol.

Lewylewylewy
02-02-2017, 05:41 PM
Share price went up because there are no more big capex to pay, and money will be returned to shareholders. $0.25 per share per year over 4 years, from memory of the last calculation I made. DYOR, mine is not what others would consider acceptable because I incorporate my perception of value and other weird stuff. I anticipate the price to hang around $4.3, peak at $3.5 then go down due to trade drop.

malus
02-02-2017, 08:21 PM
[QUOTE=percy;653659]Totally agree with your comments.
Just the valuation, or the price one has to pay,I have trouble with.

Yes agree... I'm not accumulating... happy holding... still waiting for Mr Market to throw the toys out of the cot so I can buy more!!

percy
02-02-2017, 08:23 PM
[QUOTE=percy;653659]Totally agree with your comments.
Just the valuation, or the price one has to pay,I have trouble with.

Yes agree... I'm not accumulating... happy holding... still waiting for Mr Market to throw the toys out of the cot so I can buy more!!
You are not alone.!!....lol.

malus
03-02-2017, 08:54 AM
Share price went up because there are no more big capex to pay, and money will be returned to shareholders. $0.25 per share per year over 4 years, from memory of the last calculation I made. DYOR, mine is not what others would consider acceptable because I incorporate my perception of value and other weird stuff. I anticipate the price to hang around $4.3, peak at $3.5 then go down due to trade drop.

Do you mean peak at $4.50?? Also with the share split capital return over next three years will be $0.05 per share.

Lewylewylewy
03-02-2017, 02:13 PM
Do you mean peak at $4.50?? Also with the share split capital turn over next three years will be $0.05 per share.

Oooh, that's true, that makes it only 5c or so. I'm tempted to sell on that...

percy
03-02-2017, 07:15 PM
Craigs' blog dated 2/2/2017 have POT on a 2017 forecast PE of 40.1.

mshierlaw
04-02-2017, 04:27 PM
Oooh, that's true, that makes it only 5c or so. I'm tempted to sell on that...

After last announcement dividend was going to be 5.6% gross.

Lewylewylewy
14-02-2017, 05:46 PM
Do you mean peak at $4.50?? Also with the share split capital return over next three years will be $0.05 per share.

Well that's the $4.5 reached. I had figured that'd be about the time when a report on lower log demand would come out and cause a drop, but it looks like the dollar is working in the right direction so probably no drop.

ados_nz
15-02-2017, 07:26 AM
Well that's the $4.5 reached. I had figured that'd be about the time when a report on lower log demand would come out and cause a drop, but it looks like the dollar is working in the right direction so probably no drop.

Why would you expect a lower demand in logs? Understandably there is some risk surrounding China and their furniture exports to America and their consequent log demand but the upcomming "Wall (speed bump) of Wood" will get harvested and it will go somewhere be it China, India, Korea or somewhere else as there isnt the domestic capacity in the region to absorb it. Log prices may fall during this time but that affects owners revenue not the ports....

Blackrose
30-04-2017, 05:08 PM
What happened to POT? I had some shares but sold them around 2011 and they were breaking in to double figures.
The story I got told was selling logs to China - solid infrastructure yadda yadda. So what happened? Ooh - a split share.

The thing is that POT were one of my first starter shares and did really well. I'm not to sure what the new "POT" is like.

hardt
30-04-2017, 06:01 PM
What happened to POT? I had some shares but sold them around 2011 and they were breaking in to double figures.
The story I got told was selling logs to China - solid infrastructure yadda yadda. So what happened? Ooh - a split share.

The thing is that POT were one of my first starter shares and did really well. I'm not to sure what the new "POT" is like.

First shares I ever bought were POT, back in 2013 - I was working in freight/logistics and noticed plenty of shipments and road orders that were once headed for Ports of Auckland now going into Port of Tauranga's/Kiwirails joint venture rail head in Onehunga "Metroport" which offered, at the time [ now there are 4 daily services ] a direct overnight rail service from Auckland to Port of Tauranga at a price shipping lines clearly could not resist.

Once the Maersk deal landed I bumped up my holdings some more and it has been a steady performer with no downside.

POT have popped up a couple inland ports all across the country and Maersk have pushed to get as many Feeder vessels from smaller ports across NZ into TGA for some of the bigger deep sea vessels...

Disc. held.

777
30-04-2017, 06:21 PM
What happened to POT? I had some shares but sold them around 2011 and they were breaking in to double figures.
The story I got told was selling logs to China - solid infrastructure yadda yadda. So what happened? Ooh - a split share.

The thing is that POT were one of my first starter shares and did really well. I'm not to sure what the new "POT" is like.


Five for one.

horus1
30-04-2017, 07:31 PM
great share . always to expensive on fundamentals but worth buying long term

QOH
21-06-2017, 04:42 PM
This was a pretty cool achievement.
https://www.port-tauranga.co.nz/port-tauranga-sets-new-zealand-container-throughput-record/

777
25-08-2017, 09:53 AM
Another steady improvement and another special dividend.

ados_nz
25-08-2017, 11:55 AM
This is the first share our club brought and couldnt be happier with it. Up 17% and may the good times keep rolling

blocker3
22-11-2017, 08:02 PM
OK ,whats up with POT.Why is the share price up 19c or 4.07% today. Can anyone help here please...

ados_nz
23-11-2017, 07:46 AM
Yeah I can seem to find a good reference as to the move either? Does someone know something we don't....?

horus1
23-11-2017, 07:55 AM
This is a very tightly held share at a very high PE. The only thing I can see is the affect of the America cup causing problems for POA to POT advantage.

blocker3
23-11-2017, 12:36 PM
Thanks horus1 & ados nz for your thoughts. Today up another 7c & 1.4%, somebody is buying ......

blocker3
23-11-2017, 12:51 PM
Now $4.99 up 2.7 % as at 1350 hrs....................

Gusballs
23-11-2017, 07:04 PM
Strange to see a large company gain alot with no news/ann. The only thing i could find which related to POT was an update on the inland port in Kawerau in the BOP. This will increase the efficiency shipments from Kawerau to the port (2.4mil tonnes of logs a year), maybe this is whats pushing the SP

blocker3
23-11-2017, 08:04 PM
Strange to see a large company gain alot with no news/ann. The only thing i could find which related to POT was an update on the inland port in Kawerau in the BOP. This will increase the efficiency shipments from Kawerau to the port (2.4mil tonnes of logs a year), maybe this is whats pushing the SP

Gusballs thanks for your info. I have shares with POT and I work at POT with a stevedore company but not for POT.
Your info makes sense. The port at the Mount side is jammed with logs (big time more than ever).
This would free up space at the port and reduce the storage time of logs at POT. Even though that POT clips the bus ticket for log storage awaiting the ships in JAS.(JAS is close to m3 by volume, Japanese Agricultural Standard)
Cheers for that .

Gusballs
23-11-2017, 08:22 PM
Gusballs thanks for your info. I have shares with POT and I work at POT with a stevedore company but not for POT.
Your info makes sense. The port at the Mount side is jammed with logs (big time more than ever).
This would free up space at the port and reduce the storage time of logs at POT. Even though that POT clips the bus ticket for log storage awaiting the ships in JAS.(JAS is close to m3 by volume, Japanese Agricultural Standard)
Cheers for that .

it will reduce the 'back log' at the port, no pun indented. this could potentially free up more commercial land to be developed, room for a new berth??

What happens to the logs once they get to the port, is there a reason for the logs being held at the port for such a long time.

blocker3
23-11-2017, 08:36 PM
Hi Gussballs. Good last question. Usually they sit around for up to 6 weeks at POT. If there is to be a Inland Port for logs ,this will free up the time that the logs are at POT. Land and space at Kawerau must be cheaper and a larger area.

blocker3
24-11-2017, 03:28 AM
Well done Steve Gray for Chief Financial officer of the year with POT.

percy
24-11-2017, 06:57 AM
We live in interesting times.
Thanks to www.4-traders.com.
POT current eps 12.26cents, at a PE of 40.46 gives current sp of $4.96.
eps growth expected to be this year 5.7% and next year 7.6% giving ave 6.65%.
Should we say POT should have a PE of twice their eps growth we would have a PE of 13.3. I do think we should look at a PE of between 20 and 25.
So PE of 13.3 gives sp of $1.63
PE of 20 gives sp of $2.25
PE of 25 gives sp of $3.06.
disc.I do not hold.

blocker3
24-11-2017, 08:18 AM
Hi Percy.

Thanks for your analysis. Always appreciated.Cheers.

tobo
31-12-2017, 08:02 AM
Trying to understand dividend expectation for POT.
5 for 1 share split 17 October 2016 made continuity of dividends less obvious. But continuity looks ok.
Dividends 2016 = 78 cps +30.3 imputation credits (all before 17 Oct) = 108.3 cps. Divided by 5 = 21.7 cps (rounded)
Dividends 2017 = 16.2 cps + 6.3 imputation credits = 22.5 cps gross
22.5 cps divided by current share price $4.94 = 4.55% dividend return gross (not counting possible sp increase), so that is just above a bank term deposit earnings.

percy
31-12-2017, 08:25 AM
Trying to understand dividend expectation for POT.
5 for 1 share split 17 October 2016 made continuity of dividends less obvious. But continuity looks ok.
Dividends 2016 = 78 cps +30.3 imputation credits (all before 17 Oct) = 108.3 cps. Divided by 5 = 21.7 cps (rounded)
Dividends 2017 = 16.2 cps + 6.3 imputation credits = 22.5 cps gross
22.5 cps divided by current share price $4.94 = 4.55% dividend return gross (not counting possible sp increase), so that is just above a bank term deposit earnings.
4.55% gross or net 3.28%.
shares on issue,680,581,230
market cap $3,362,071,276
eps 12.26
PE 40.29.
NTA $1.34
Dividend ps 16.2 cent
Dividend yield 3.28%
I do note the dividend is higher than eps.
Great company,even greater share price.?

Beagle
31-12-2017, 10:04 AM
The only way I will pay a PE of 40 is if I foresee profit growing at a similar rate. Maybe Winston rocks the boat long term on this whole port thing and their seemingly completely defensive position and massive moat isn't as impenetrable as it appears ? Risks outweigh potential modest rewards ?

QOH
04-01-2018, 12:06 PM
http://www.port-tauranga.co.nz/education-2/port-tours/

Just a heads up for any Tauranga people or shareholders interested in doing this tour.
My sister did it last year and said it was really interesting, tickets are still available. I’m looking forward to it.

Filthy
08-05-2018, 01:04 PM
any reason why POT has jumped 30-cents in the last week on no news?

Jay
08-05-2018, 03:20 PM
I'm not complaining as I bought some about that time, oversold maybe, could resistance at 5.20 though, will look to sell if does not break that

Lawstudent05
11-05-2018, 09:16 AM
Hi All,

I'm scratching my head wondering where the sudden bounce in SP has come from with no news that I can see?

Jay
11-05-2018, 10:04 AM
I thought some of it initially could have ben around the talk of moving Auckland's port and the flow on being more activity for P O T, just a thought but as per my comment above - not complaining as it seemed to have broken thru the 5.20 and this may well prove to be resistance now

Nasi Goreng
11-05-2018, 10:55 AM
Quite often the reason is more buyers than sellers. I know that sounds too simple an explanation but if a fund has decided to load up with a few more POT, it can lift the price a few %. There are some very sound long term tailwinds behind POT and it should still be there in a 100 years so its expensive compared to some stocks but its a goodie.

Lawstudent05
11-05-2018, 11:26 AM
Thanks guys, yes have been holding for over 1 year now and buying monthly on a small scale. Thanks

Food4Thought
04-06-2018, 12:18 AM
A article about practices at Port of Tauranga and other Ports. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/103690904/its-banned-in-other-countries-but-new-zealand-is-using-more-toxic-methyl-bromide-than-ever

Not something that jumps to mind when I think about logging.

And another relevant article for DYOR

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/104267535/Nelson-woman-whose-husband-died-of-motor-neurone-disease-says-toxic-methyl-bromide-should-have-been-banned-years-ago

Lawstudent05
07-06-2018, 04:38 PM
5c up today, no announcements I can see on the horizon. Any ideas anyone?

Not complaining though.

Joshuatree
07-06-2018, 07:01 PM
Cant confirm but i made up a rumour that a mega container ship which had turned sideways and was blocking the narrow entrance between Mount Maunganui and Matakana island, was successfully ejected out to the open ocean.

moka
07-06-2018, 07:58 PM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12062800

(https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12062800)Brian Gaynor: NZ's best investor — is it BoP Regional Council?

Who is New Zealand's best investor?
This is a difficult question to answer but the Bay of Plenty Regional Council is an obvious candidate because of its stewardship of Port of Tauranga, which has created vast shareholder value over the past 26 years.

Lawstudent05
08-06-2018, 10:34 AM
Great article, thanks for the link.

Sideshow Bob
10-08-2018, 01:42 PM
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/106170654/large-fire-in-building-at-port-of-tauranga

Bit of a BBQ at POT and container terminal closed.

martinchnz1
15-08-2018, 09:46 AM
Is the lower support finally starting to cave?

Lawstudent05
15-08-2018, 11:59 AM
Is the lower support finally starting to cave?

Hey, out of interest what do you mean by the comment? You sensing a downward fall for the stock?

martinchnz1
15-08-2018, 12:08 PM
Hey, out of interest what do you mean by the comment? You sensing a downward fall for the stock?
Well it's already 6.3% down from it's peak within the last few weeks and many commentators have called it over valued stating fair value at $3.80.

Patient Panda
15-08-2018, 03:11 PM
Well it's already 6.3% down from it's peak within the last few weeks and many commentators have called it over valued stating fair value at $3.80.

POT is an excellent business with great management but has been seriously overvalued for a long time. Even being generous with the numbers you plug in to the Graham formula its very hard to get a fair value over 3.30 and thats with no discount (no discount probably fair in the case of POT with its pedigree).

Lawstudent05
20-08-2018, 03:48 PM
POT is an excellent business with great management but has been seriously overvalued for a long time. Even being generous with the numbers you plug in to the Graham formula its very hard to get a fair value over 3.30 and thats with no discount (no discount probably fair in the case of POT with its pedigree).

Thanks for the reply. What do you mean by the Graham formula?

I guess if its overvalued the SP might take a hit with the upcoming annual results this Friday. For me POT is long term and have to slowly accumulate as it builds.

Joshuatree
20-08-2018, 05:26 PM
Yep best stock to set and forget for 10 years if you had to pick one imo, RYM another fave.
Your $1m inheritance is locked for 10 years in one company, which one ? (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11314-Your-1m-inheritance-is-locked-for-10-years-in-one-company-which-one)

Patient Panda
20-08-2018, 07:40 PM
Thanks for the reply. What do you mean by the Graham formula?

I guess if its overvalued the SP might take a hit with the upcoming annual results this Friday. For me POT is long term and have to slowly accumulate as it builds.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Graham_formula

normally the formula presented in the link is very optimistic with its valuation so instead of 2g I just use the plain long term growth rate.

so you get
v= eps * (8.5+g).


I can’t tell you what will happen to the SP in the short run, flipping a coin will be just as accurate. In the long run I am sure they will continue the march onward and upward

Patient Panda
21-08-2018, 01:36 PM
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/106432476/record-log-exports-boost-port-taranakis-profits

Another boomer of a result.

Bit weird I can’t see the corresponding announcement on the NZX website.

“Return on shareholders' funds up 5.3 per cent to 5.9 per cent.”

surely this is a typo?? Seems far too low.

Lawstudent05
21-08-2018, 02:09 PM
Is Port Taranaki listed on the NZX? Does another relevant company on NZX own part of Port Taranaki?

percy
21-08-2018, 04:06 PM
Is Port Taranaki listed on the NZX? Does another relevant company on NZX own part of Port Taranaki?

To the best of my knowledge,no.

777
21-08-2018, 04:18 PM
Is Port Taranaki listed on the NZX? Does another relevant company on NZX own part of Port Taranaki?


www.porttaranaki.co.nz
Port Taranaki is a port complex located in New Plymouth, New Zealand. It is the only deep water port on the west coast of New Zealand, and is owned by the Taranaki Regional Council. The port handles a wide range of coastal and international cargoes, mostly relating to the farming, engineering and petrochemical industries. Shipping volumes decreased significantly over the period 2012 to 2015.

percy
24-08-2018, 07:52 AM
Well eps increased from 13.03 cps to 14 cps, bringing the PE ratio down from 36.53 to 34.

horus1
24-08-2018, 08:09 AM
A very well run company. Always overpriced and always worth buying

Lawstudent05
24-08-2018, 08:28 AM
Seems to be good reading, however my financial acumen is not the sharpest, to me it looks pretty positive. Along with the div and special div it looks good.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/322688

If someone has time - would love for them to explain why people believe the company is overpriced. I see Craigs has Target price from 2 months ago at $4.00

percy
24-08-2018, 08:38 AM
Seems to be good reading, however my financial acumen is not the sharpest, to me it looks pretty positive. Along with the div and special div it looks good.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/322688

If someone has time - would love for them to explain why people believe the company is overpriced. I see Craigs has Target price from 2 months ago at $4.00

Paying a PE of 34 for eps growth 7.44% may be a good place to start.

Nasi Goreng
24-08-2018, 09:04 AM
Another outstanding result. I think it’s fairly priced, can’t compare this to most other companies with similar PE. They will likely be around in 100 years... half of the NZX50 may not be.

percy
24-08-2018, 09:13 AM
Another outstanding result. I think it’s fairly priced, can’t compare this to most other companies with similar PE. They will likely be around in 100 years... half of the NZX50 may not be.

Pity I will be long dead.!

Nasi Goreng
24-08-2018, 09:23 AM
Lol. I always thought the point of paying a high multiple was that you believe the company can make existing profits for many years. This is a really good dividend growth stock that I don’t see myself selling.

Patient Panda
24-08-2018, 03:39 PM
Paying a PE of 34 for eps growth 7.44% may be a good place to start.


Agreed, I would suggest those looking at POT to be confident with their valuations and ask themselves if a fairly capital intensive business getting consistent but modest growth is worth 1.5x market average PE.

Lewylewylewy
25-08-2018, 07:57 AM
Pe is too high for the growth, making the expensive. Why is the price so high for a company with such little growth? Imo because it's seen as a safe purchase (good assets, land, infrastructure hub, sp history, etc). Lower risk, lower return.

Good place to put your money if you have loads and need the lower risk but still get an ok roi pa and a little bit solid growth. Great for institutional holders and financially mature investors.

Not sure about the growth this year (i don't know where the growth will come from), also international risk. Probably why the price is stagnant.

Lewylewylewy
25-08-2018, 08:38 AM
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8bee9e60/update-port-of-tauranga-lifts-annual-profit-13-plans-further-expansion.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=After%20the%20Bell%20Friday%2024th%20 August%202018&utm_content=After%20the%20Bell%20Friday%2024th%20A ugust%202018+CID_44f3e14b785bf6a0c11d3ef77420c1dd&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=UPDATE%20Port%20of%20Tauranga%20lifts%20a nnual%20profit%2013%20plans%20further%20expansion

Oh, that's the growth plan. For anyone interested, you can view the shipping schedules on the pot website. Useful to predict capacity and get an idea on profit in between announcements.

Lawstudent05
04-09-2018, 02:43 PM
Big turnaround in the past few weeks. Is this Div securing?

hardt
21-09-2018, 01:43 PM
Big turnaround in the past few weeks. Is this Div securing?

That is insider buying leading into a positive announcement... Tsk tsk tsk

hardt
16-10-2018, 08:41 AM
http://view.mktg.maerskline.com/?qs=8e4a360ccbe637294d43fa4350cc11d5653c983e8dad66 73a87123408da34cd1e7f7c0def34ef05011b4a5fff60429e9 59b9da19f566c8b18c7caf8f1b113f9a3b54478d862786e9

Joshuatree
16-10-2018, 09:05 AM
Thanks. Good for POT and for rail!

Wellington


There will be no direct Maersk service calling at Wellington going forward
Napier is available as an alternative load port for exports
Imports – Cargo will be transported by rail from Tauranga to Wellington, subject to additional rail costs.

850man
07-02-2020, 04:15 PM
Dredging up an old thread here. I've been watching POT in the wake of the news about log export demand that has hit other ports around NZ mentioned here http://www.gisborneherald.co.nz/frontpage-featured/20200204/the-perfect-storm-exporters-stop-buying-wood/ POT SP took a hit on 31 Jan dropping around 5% but has largely bounced back over the last 2 days despite logs making up about 40% of the export tonnage through there.

Ricky-bobby
24-02-2020, 07:25 PM
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2002/S00343/wharves-in-china-cant-take-more-logs-from-new-zealand.htm

Sideshow Bob
25-02-2020, 07:16 AM
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2002/S00343/wharves-in-china-cant-take-more-logs-from-new-zealand.htm

Similar sort of thing with containers. On reefer (refrigerated) shipments, shipping companies are slugging everyone with $1,000 USD per container for several main ports - port congestion surcharges/no plugs/having to re-route.

Preston
14-03-2020, 08:10 PM
Not a lot of chat on POT.

Anyone looking around the $5 mark here. Buy and hold long term strategy?

cheers

Filthy
14-03-2020, 08:16 PM
going to lose the cruise boat revenue now. & less stuff being imported & exported as recession starts to hit. long term; all good but the current dip still has a long way to go.

Preston
18-03-2020, 08:16 PM
Some really massive price action here. Does anyone have any solid reasoning why POT will go lower than what it is ? I feel like the market has priced in all of the bad news and now we have solid support again off a long term TL. Sea is going to be the cheapest and maybe only place to ship stuff in the short term and with China getter “better” won’t ports be opening etc again? This is a broad view and I’m open to “education”

Sideshow Bob
18-03-2020, 09:56 PM
Some really massive price action here. Does anyone have any solid reasoning why POT will go lower than what it is ? I feel like the market has priced in all of the bad news and now we have solid support again off a long term TL. Sea is going to be the cheapest and maybe only place to ship stuff in the short term and with China getter “better” won’t ports be opening etc again? This is a broad view and I’m open to “education”

Interesting. Vessels and container space out of NZ is hard to get at the moment. Airfreight space is going to be tight. No announcements for any material change, and last announcement only 2 weeks ago about container volumes continuing to grow.

But at the same time, it was at a similar price as recent as April last year.

macduffy
19-03-2020, 09:51 AM
Some really massive price action here. Does anyone have any solid reasoning why POT will go lower than what it is ? I feel like the market has priced in all of the bad news and now we have solid support again off a long term TL. Sea is going to be the cheapest and maybe only place to ship stuff in the short term and with China getter “better” won’t ports be opening etc again? This is a broad view and I’m open to “education”

The main reason why POT will/may go lower is that the market generally is unsettled - to put it mildly!

peat
01-04-2020, 03:38 PM
I see POT had a big write up in Craigs latest quarterly, seeing them as quality, best of breed - a safe harbour they described it as in their title.

And price has come down a lot like everything

But it is still on a historical PE of 40!

I cant touch this.

Jaa
01-04-2020, 04:22 PM
I see POT had a big write up in Craigs latest quarterly, seeing them as quality, best of breed - a safe harbour they described it as in their title.

And price has come down a lot like everything

But it is still on a historical PE of 40!

I cant touch this.

Best of breed yes but it will be affected.

Cruise ship revenue is gone. Economic downturn will depress container traffic, log volumes, oil and general cargo. Likewise knock-on effects on stevedoring and their logistics businesses. PE of 80 on this year's earnings?

Nasi Goreng
01-04-2020, 05:08 PM
POT have been paying 18c dividend on 14.69c per share, 5c of which has been subsidised by debt and called a special dividend. I would expect this practice to be reviewed on falling profits.

martinchnz1
07-04-2020, 09:16 AM
The heck, I'm out.
$6.70 given current conditions? I cannot see this price as sustainable. The stock market is being a real womble, sidelining till I find some sense again 😅 so much uncertainty and despite the beginnings of freight movement even China will not be able to pursue the demand it once did when nation after nation fall into deep depression/recession.

Playa
08-04-2020, 09:29 AM
The heck, I'm out.
$6.70 given current conditions? I cannot see this price as sustainable. The stock market is being a real womble, sidelining till I find some sense again  so much uncertainty and despite the beginnings of freight movement even China will not be able to pursue the demand it once did when nation after nation fall into deep depression/recession.
Totally,and today they have gone even higher. Who is buying at these levels?No value here.

ados_nz
08-04-2020, 09:38 AM
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/heather-du-plessis-allan-drive/audio/shane-jones-considering-ban-on-log-exports-to-give-new-zealand-priority-access-to-wood/

Updated link.

Uncle Shane looking to ban/regulate log exports... This would be very significant for POT.

Sideshow Bob
08-04-2020, 09:43 AM
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/heather-du-plessis-allan-drive/audio/shane-jones-considering-ban-on-log-exports-to-give-new-zealand-priority-access-to-wood/.XozyTS4AJfw.facebook

Uncle Shane looking to ban/regulate log exports... This would be very significant for POT.

Link doesn't work.

ados_nz
08-04-2020, 09:55 AM
Updated above ^

kiora
08-04-2020, 10:06 AM
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/heather-du-plessis-allan-drive/audio/shane-jones-considering-ban-on-log-exports-to-give-new-zealand-priority-access-to-wood/

Updated link.

Uncle Shane looking to ban/regulate log exports... This would be very significant for POT.

He makes me squirm.
Its it the amount of logs that is limiting or the price NZ producers can buy them for that's the issue
Why not just cut down more of the wall of wood!

Sideshow Bob
08-04-2020, 02:17 PM
Thanks Ados.

This must be just SJ shooting off his mouth (again), with no discussion with coalition partners. Sounds all good in theory....but....

When this is all over, Gubbermint is going to be as keen for as much foreign earnings as quick as possible. Logging is going to be shut down for 6 months minimum.

horus1
08-04-2020, 03:47 PM
This needs thinking about After this virus upset many things are going to change, one of which is the need for more local production and less coffee shops etc to give jobs. Do not laugh , Shane is bright and intelligent even if not to everyones liking.

Joshuatree
08-04-2020, 04:20 PM
Although its a pretty well retreaded story re attempts to get and add value to logs by having them milled here in NZ. Think Winston has done this at least once before but its largely a failure and mills have been shutting for years. Be a great problem to find a solution to though.

macduffy
08-04-2020, 07:33 PM
There's no point in making stuff that doesn't have a market. If the international demand is for logs and not added value timber products you sell them logs. Remember, the customer is always right!

Jaa
09-04-2020, 03:51 AM
Although its a pretty well retreaded story re attempts to get and add value to logs by having them milled here in NZ. Think Winston has done this at least once before but its largely a failure and mills have been shutting for years. Be a great problem to find a solution to though.

One obvious solution would be to create a face mask manufacturing industry in NZ.

kiora
09-04-2020, 08:42 AM
He makes me squirm.
Its it the amount of logs that is limiting or the price NZ producers can buy them for that's the issue
Why not just cut down more of the wall of wood!

Yea no Shane,what does he know???
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2004/S00155/foresters-says-shane-jones-call-to-preference-domestic-timber-supplies-cant-work.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+9+ April+2020

Ricky-bobby
24-04-2020, 01:09 PM
Was talking to my neighbour yesterday and he was saying log prices are soaring to new records as China wants logs again! They can’t source timber from Europe, so Nz is a good spot. This might explain the move of the Pot upwards lately?..

850man
24-04-2020, 04:14 PM
Not a lot of shipping of anything over the last 4 weeks and not a lot of logging either. No cruise ships either. I'm surprised the SP is what it is now considering the downturn

Zaphod
26-04-2020, 10:11 AM
Not a lot of shipping of anything over the last 4 weeks and not a lot of logging either. No cruise ships either. I'm surprised the SP is what it is now considering the downturn

IMO we'll see some adjustments to SP's across the board once reality bites in Q3 & Q4 2020. Reporting season will not be pretty.

Lewylewylewy
13-05-2020, 11:26 AM
Hi guys, thought id do a bit of a pot review, but i need some help. Even if i assume that theres no damage from covid19, i cant see any way to justify the current share price. The dividend return looks like an increasing trap as npat is flat. Am I reading those reports wrong? Appreciate any help. Ta

peat
13-05-2020, 01:37 PM
Hi guys, thought id do a bit of a pot review, but i need some help. Even if i assume that theres no damage from covid19, i cant see any way to justify the current share price. The dividend return looks like an increasing trap as npat is flat. Am I reading those reports wrong? Appreciate any help. Ta

After reading your post Lewy I had a re-scan through the latest Craigs quarterly newsletter which has an article on POT entitled Safe Harbour and re-iterating their view as a core holding. I may have already posted such.
However I looked for financial analysis of the company and was surprised to see none at all in this 10 page article despite their being numerous charts and graphs. So I think this confirms that valuations based on fundamentals are for this company are somewhat irrelevant (to many).

However they support their case with a lot of good points so I recommend you find the article somehow. I will very quickly summarise some main points here - but I wont cut and paste the charts sorry.



exceptionally strong track record of growing earnings and dividends
consistently found innovative new ways of developing its strategy and keeping well ahead of its rivals
import/export volume twice more than its nearest rival (Whangarei)
Ports are all about networks - The Port of Tauranga network spans the North and South Islands, and importantly, these locations have the capacity for further growth as required.
targeted shift towards a hub port strategy - transhipment (containers are transferred from one service to another) now makes up 32.1% of the containers handled

- significant investment in the infrastructure required to facilitate visits by larger international ships
developing long term relationships to ensure there is sufficient freight volume coming into Tauranga to justify the big ship services.


​Cargo volumes increased, with minimal impact on truck movement (benefits of transhipment)
access to rail
Strategic land holdings

Port of Tauranga owns 190 hectares of land on both sides of Tauranga Harbour,
bout 40 hectares still available for development.
The Port believes container throughput could more than double in the coming years through land reconfi guration, stacking cranes and other technology.
the Port owns and operates inland freight hubs in Auckland (33 hectares) and Christchurch (15 hectares at Rolleston)
126 hectares at the Rangiuru Business Park near Te Puke, approximately 35 kilometres southeast of the Port.


quality infrastructure assets, it would be diff cult to replicate a similar sized port in another part of New Zealand.
a capable management team
, competitive advantages,
clear pathway for future growth,
sound financials



I hope this helps

forest
13-05-2020, 03:14 PM
Hi guys, thought id do a bit of a pot review, but i need some help. Even if i assume that theres no damage from covid19, i cant see any way to justify the current share price. The dividend return looks like an increasing trap as npat is flat. Am I reading those reports wrong? Appreciate any help. Ta

I see it as you see it Lewy. Very hard to justify the current share price of nearly $7.00.
Looks to me a case of a good company but likely not so good investment at todays share price.

The financials are ok, but not outstanding in my view.
Best to invest in something with more likely upside. Keep a searching. :)

Lewylewylewy
13-05-2020, 04:41 PM
Hmmm very interesting. Might sell what few i have sometime. Thanks all

Nasi Goreng
13-05-2020, 04:51 PM
Risk of dividend cut being factored in should be considered. POT is a solid investment for all of the reasons discussed over time, however it is not as solid as it was in 2019. I never like to see companies borrowing to pay dividends and POT have been doing this for the last 3.5 years.

Filthy
26-06-2020, 08:47 AM
so imports down 25% https://www.interest.co.nz/news/105691/statistics-new-zealand-says-low-levels-imports-april-and-may-have-caused-our-deficit
no cruise ship revenue (wont be for some time). car yards importing less vehicles. and we are staring down the barrel of a recession.
absolutely crazy PE. and a (at risk) divi that is really no better than a bank TD.
what am I missing??