Trades - make the call

[The Big Ease]

looks like i have created a bit of a monster in the MQG thread.
so to prevent it being overrun by talk of trading other stocks, whack them in here.

what are you trading?
share some thoughts and charts if you will :)

[The Big Ease]

looks good AA.
not sure where to get a chart from, but CUS is looking good for an upswing.
would also be a good one to hold for the next 3-6 months to take advantage of the direct charging on atms in aust.

[STRAT]

looks good AA.
not sure where to get a chart from, but CUS is looking good for an upswing.
would also be a good one to hold for the next 3-6 months to take advantage of the direct charging on atms in aust.here you go TBE

[The Big Ease]

cheers strat.
etrade still havent updated their data since the share consolidation.
nice to see the long term trend.

got in today with a decent bundle.
i can see this running up to 2.40ish on the back of direct charging and the charts say its still going strong.

[The Big Ease]

looking good AA. risky trading illiquid stocks though (?)
wont that potentially make your losses bigger? how do you weigh up the pros/cons.

[The Big Ease]

have you taken a look at CUS?

[AMR]

I first posted this on the AAX thread earlier. A real pity for me since I missed the signal due to work and now I'm hoping there's a pullback. I believe the company is fundamentally sound.

It is a consolidation breakout trade as price has closed above the 2.70 resistance. A suitable stop loss would be under the prior low at 2.48, while the target could be the 200 day EMA at $5.80. Excellent risk-reward. No fibonacci levels anywhere, nearest is the 38.2% retracement somewhere north of the 200 day EMA.

Would have been ideal to pick some up after the "dip trip" to 2.48 but risk reward is still pretty good.

[Thumpa]

AEU looks ready to pop....... 19 cents now maybe back to 28-29 cents target.

Big volume last friday.....maybe news on ABC leases / property sales / NZ ABC etc coming soon.

DYOR

[The Big Ease]

they look good.
pity i cant do the day trades due to time zones, so ill have to stick to less volatile stocks with 2-3 week trends.

happy trading though ;)
thanks for all the info, tips and charts too, especially AA.

[dragonz]

FML is a 1st year gold producer currantly going through a series of cap raising to upgrade its facilities. Despite selling pressure to buy into cap the sp has kept rising 50% odd over the last 4 weeks. have noticed steadily rising volumes over this period as well.

At 3 cents a share this is now trading below its exploration days.

I believe that the cap raising will bring a degree of certainty into the company and once selling pressure dries up (from these raisings) we could well see it trading back in the 5-7 cent range. Of course any increase in the price of gold will not hurt the spp.

This is a penny dreadfull without the associated risks in my opinion.

[dragonz]

Hi AA

Thanks for the NDO charts. This stock is BULLISH in short-term and I'll be watching to see if it breaks its resistance of 10 cents tomorrow. Could be one to buy before the day traders jump onboard.

It would be very muchly appreciated if you could do a similiar chart for FML (if you have time). I dont have charting software that does OBV and your charts are nice and clear.

Many Thanx

D

[ELYOB]

NDO ......no .........?????????

[The Big Ease]

CUS just smashing through the resistance at 1.75
currently at 1.81 with a daily high of 1.85.....this has some way to go over the next few weeks.

[shasta]

For Shasta,

Regarding my post on the 30th of March

Update Chart ENV, ENV Moving along nicely now.

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/env_ax_price_daily_and_on_balance_v.png

My Price Target is around the 45c Mark based on resistance, The 38.2% Fibonacci level is also around this level (43.5c) which makes the Target Zone stronger, this is a Price zone where a pullback might occur and might be a good place to take profit if the price looks to be struggling or running out of momentum.

AA (Not Advice)

Cheers for that....

Love the candles too, nice touch :D

[AMR]

AA did you get back into Alesco. On a quick scan last night I noticed it was now back to $2!

[dragonz]

Dragonz, read above post, FML is showing a ADX Reading of just 12.44, anything below 14 is considered a Trend less un-tradable market, often called a dead market by traders, that is when timing signals become unreliable due to a lack of directional movement or trend strength, Normally Traders won't enter if readings are below 16, they prefer above 20.

Just thought you might want to know.

You can see the price is just trading sideways,Trend strength, what little there is... is still falling. I missed this when I replied to you last sorry. If you really like the Fundamentals and are not in a hurry and are happy just holding for a while it might be ok for you?


AA

Thanks AA

Great market update today but still pretty solid selling pressure.

I do like the fundamentals and am keeping as we wont see a retraction of the sp (i hope) but needs to clear out about 8 million shares (activity from the cap raising).

From a T/A perpective - Price has closed above its short term moving average with the short term moving average above mid-term and above long term so the stock is still bullish in short-term and mid-long term.

The bollinger bands are starting to get the sqeeze so a new trend may soon be initiated.

I'm very interested in this ADX reading method. I'm sure I am working a lot harder then I need to to pick shares for trading and often I go the whole day without trading anything dispite spending 6 - 8 a day studying and following everything thats happening during the day. Very tiresom and hard work.

I'm getting a grasp on the "emotion" (what makes a stock run) and the basics of the fundamentals so really appreciate the T/A input from you and others.

D

[dragonz]

Hi AA

Perhaps you could rename this tread "Day trading" thread. It would be great to have a day Traders dairy in ST as most of the other sites tend to be full of rampers and its a pain to filter out the trash.

I know there is a lot of interest from up and coming (or wanna be) day traders.

Day trading for a living , particuly using T/A in a specialised artform. It would also be good to have a thread to pinpoint movements in stocks as they are occurring.

Just a thought :rolleyes:

D

[trackers]

Hi Dragonz,

None of these companies Ive named are for day trading, they could be longer term holds as they have reversed their medium term trend in most cases.

I'm not what you would call a Day Trader, Generally I don't Trade in and out within the intra-day. I'm more of a swing trader or position trader, Holding for a few day to up to 8 days maybe a few more to catch just the major movements within a trend, My aim is to make at least a 20% profit within a 8 day period sometimes I will hold longer if I need to. This means I trade Short term and long term Breakouts, Volume Spikes, V shaped Rallies brought on by over reaction, Reversion to the mean plays etc, anything where there is a strong flow of money into a stock, I try to set set before the heard of Bulls arrive for those strongest days. I also have some stocks which I hold for months on end

AA

Yup this is pretty much me in a nutshell also (incl the several long-term holds like CUE).... Though I prefer to trade on news/momentum and a bit of FA (particularly, changes in fundamentals) rather than TA

[Thumpa]

Been hovering over MDT all day.....in at 4 cents now all the cool kids are in :)

MCW bouncing away now at 27.5 cents! . should see 29 cents before too long.

[The Big Ease]

AA,

how many trades do you typically have running at any one time?

[Thumpa]

4.1 gone in 4.1 seconds.....lol

[Thumpa]

MDT 4.3 cent line sweep ;)

[Thumpa]

Great day

MCW just hit 29 cents
MDT looking o.k at 4.5

Watching MOF closely ..... similar pattern's

REIT's are so now right now.

Annoyed with HFA ... missed them this morning at 14 cents after selling last week into 11. Can't kiss all the girls... :cool:

[Thumpa]

AEU looks ready to pop....... 19 cents now maybe back to 28-29 cents target.

Big volume last friday.....maybe news on ABC leases / property sales / NZ ABC etc coming soon.

DYOR

Not the most liquid stock but could be a good income stock in a year or so if distributions return to normal when this credit crisis thing blows over.Future yields could be mind blowing at these current prices.Worth a punt for me but more as a longer hold , but with some short term potential.

steady...steady...STEADY...

http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u150/soundzgoodgood/AEU-2.png

[Thumpa]

Cheers AA ,

AEU - Keep an eye on the 500k prop at 15 cents bid (safely away from the action )
Would be nice if they walked it up a notch or two.
Also seems quite "leaky" with activity around news time.

Also , MDT broke the 50 day MA and held . This was the last confirmation I was looking for.A lot of volume recently at 4 cents which hopefully becomes the new support. stop set at 3.7 - 3.8 I guess?

http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u150/soundzgoodgood/MDT-1.png

[dragonz]

This is one I might just sit on for a while, Currently Trading at 17c opened at 13.5c.

I have a Medium Term Target of around the 50c mark

HFA:

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/hfa_ax_price_daily_and_volume___dai.png

Once it gets through 17c it should really take off.

Just a opinion Not Advice

AA



Well I guess this explains the ASX's Price Query

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090403/pdf/31gxspjnp3yxjv.pdf


Thumpa and AA - what broker do you use for trading on thew ASX?


Had a bizarre day today.

Brought some GDNO oppies instead of the heads on todays announcement @ 1 cent a share.

Sold down FML as I didnt want to have most of my capital tied up over the weekend. When I checked my oppies again some 8 million shares had gone through and they where 33% up.

I think this is an interesting play on the oppies. They run out at the end of June and the heads are currantely only sitting @ 10cents so for these to be in the money the heads need to double in sp over the next 3 months.
However the company is currantly drilling for a massive commercial gas deposit with the results due out as early as this weekend.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090403/pdf/31gxdqt1mkw4vv.pdf

What I really liked about these though was the following article in particular the section about the oppies.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/1148/golden-state-resources-inches-closer-to-first-target-at-paradox-2-well-interesting-times-ahead--1148.html


"The independent report of the Golden Eagle Project by oil consulting major RPS Energy Group further validated the drilling of Paradox #2 when it indicated that there is a huge potential gas resource at Golden Eagle. "Gas In Place estimates for the Golden Eagle gas field resource (mid-case estimate) could be...120 billion cubic feet (Bcf)."

GDN management has been able to raise cash, (in a tough market) - the exercise of attaching 20 cent options in June by investors would add further cash to the till - and deliver a 67% running profit to investors who took the placement at 6 cents per share, is further evidence of the improved prospects for GDN in 2009. In addition, Paradox #1 provided GDN with far more information and data as to where to set their sights at Paradox #2."




It seems to me that the Company is very confidant of exercising the oppies.

High risk I know but a 5 bagger in this market would be nice :D

[dragonz]

Some great announcements on the ASX this morning. Plenty of room for quick profitable trades.

Will be topping up on GDN options this morning - Not such a high risk given the time span of the drill (plenty of time to exit)

NMS (notice the "smart money" in the last few weeks )oppies are also looking attractive. (expiry 2010) and at a discount to the heads.

Good Trading all :D

[Thumpa]

MOF at 20cents after 3 recent attempts to break 19.5 ....

[Thumpa]

SDL off for a trot hitting 9c

[croesus]

A.A.. whats the code for the GDn opts please.. had a quick look on the net.. but all I found was opts expiring in Oct 07

Cheers Croesus

[dragonz]

Well I guess this explains the ASX's Price Query

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090403/pdf/31gxspjnp3yxjv.pdf


Thumpa and AA - what broker do you use for trading on thew ASX?


Had a bizarre day today.

Brought some GDNO oppies instead of the heads on todays announcement @ 1 cent a share.




It seems to me that the Company is very confidant of exercising the oppies.

High risk I know but a 5 bagger in this market would be nice :D



Just Sold my GDN oppies for 1.3 cents. Not the 5 bagger I wanted but a 33.3% return will do me fine for a days work. :D

[Thumpa]

hee hee MDT

[croesus]

Thanks A.A... yep saw those but it says Jun07 on Stockness... so I presumed they were out of time.

Will do some research tonite... sitting on a healthy NDO profit.. and wondering wether to stay or sell... cheers

[dragonz]

Thanks A.A... yep saw those but it says Jun07 on Stockness... so I presumed they were out of time.

Will do some research tonite... sitting on a healthy NDO profit.. and wondering wether to stay or sell... cheers

Croesus. This is the site I use to check out the conditions of options.

http://markets.smh.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=ahro&section=summary&submit=Go&submit=

Just enter the head shares code and RELATED.

This will bring up exercise date and price.

[croesus]

Thanks for the Advice... Absolut-Advance and Dragonz.....cheers.

[dragonz]

AA

If you dont mind me asking do you use an Australian Broker or a New Zealand one.

[shasta]

Hi Dragonz at the moment Im using asbsecurities, I live in NZ.
I haven't looked into using an overseas broker Im fairly happy paying higher brokerage due to trade frequency if it lessens my trade risk exposure and over all returns.
I see unnecessary time in the market as risky, and only hold during low risk high reward periods and hold for only as long as they stay low risk high reward..
I like to take profits off the table overnight and reenter the following day (if deemed the right thing to do) if the Percentage gained has been high, as I don't like giving large profits back to the market, and I like to see certainty in the market open the next day before reentering after a significant run has taken place, this gives me confidence that the momentum and supply and demand is still on my side.
Why do you ask.

AA

I find ASB Sec @ $A30 a trade to be very competitive, so i'm not looking elsewhere for a less secure cheaper alternative.

Can be a bit of a nuisance having to split an order to avoid the higher brokerage, but i'm happy with it.

[dragonz]

Hi Dragonz at the moment Im using asbsecurities, I live in NZ.
I haven't looked into using an overseas broker Im fairly happy paying higher brokerage due to trade frequency if it lessens my trade risk exposure and over all returns.
I see unnecessary time in the market as risky, and only hold during low risk high reward periods and hold for only as long as they stay low risk high reward..
I like to take profits off the table overnight and reenter the following day (if deemed the right thing to do) if the Percentage gained has been high, as I don't like giving large profits back to the market, and I like to see certainty in the market open the next day before reentering after a significant run has taken place, this gives me confidence that the momentum and supply and demand is still on my side.
Of-course sometimes though you have to be prepared to give the stock the room it needs to grow in value... being prepared to hold for a bit, along with knowing and respecting the average true range of the stock

Why do you ask.

AA

No real reason for asking, just curious as to what other NZ based traders use.

It makes sense to stick with a NZ one for security reasons. It does equate to up to $100 a week in extra fees though.

[AMR]

I believe Interactive brokers has a $6 AU minimum, but it will be through a nominee account and you need some big cash to do so. Don't fall for those $10 CFD commissions either, they will get you back through widening the spread especially on the less liquid stocks.

[AMR]

Thanks AMR, yes I hate paying via the spread, its hard to know your true costs easily, as they are variable. Hows the Forex going?

AA

It's not lol. Since I started work I have no time for trading. Now I'm trying to fully mechanise the whole thing to save time and to get better emotion-free trades. The Katz encyclopedia you gave me is a very good read.

[Thumpa]

Some great announcements on the ASX this morning. Plenty of room for quick profitable trades.

Will be topping up on GDN options this morning - Not such a high risk given the time span of the drill (plenty of time to exit)

NMS (notice the "smart money" in the last few weeks )oppies are also looking attractive. (expiry 2010) and at a discount to the heads.

Good Trading all :D

Congrat's !!!

[dragonz]

Just brought IBA for my 1st purchase of the day @ 63.5. Be quick as this will move fast

My opinion only

[dragonz]

Just brought IBA for my 1st purchase of the day @ 63.5. Be quick as this will move fast

My opinion only

Holy Moly - its up to 66 already. :D:D:D

[dragonz]

ILF trading at 7.3c today , that is me out, locked in a good profit considering I only brought yesterday, ,I don't want to hold stocks over Easter unless necessary.

C&P
Easter this weekend – OZ closed mid Thurs, fri and Mon. US markets only closed Fri. Traders / instos most likely will close positions / take some profits ahead of this, not risking large open positions going into a 4 day long weekend with (US) earnings announcements and OZ market closed

AA

Well done AA

Enjoy your extra looooong weekend :D

[denpal]

A-A what charting programme have you heard is best, I need to get beyond freeware and get the tools I need to pick up potential candidates BEFORE or JUST AS they move rather than hearing about it too late!!!!!

I've found your ADX method really interesting as there doesn't seem to be much whipsawing with the signal line and thus more reliable once it peaks and turns down.

TIA.

[dragonz]

Has anyone purchased a Rights Issue on market for trading purposes only and been charged an application fee on top of the purchase price. Just been debited $2500A on top of purchase price of shares that I immediately resold :mad:

[dragonz]

sounds bizarre, phone your broker.


AA

Sorted.

Some Australian Brokers add the Application Money onto the Contract and Take it on Settlement Day.– the Reversal of Funds only come back once the Rights are Sold. :(

Others operate in a different way and do not levy the Application Money onto Rights purchased on Market without contacting the Client and ascerting what their intentions are. :)

[dragonz]

AA

IBA.ASX is one that you might find interesting. Has that sort of AAX feel about it. Good fundamentals but T/A is starting to show a possible breakout.


Steady uptrend and increasing OBV.

Stochastic indicates that its slightly oversold. Great trading stock for those who use Stochastics for thier entry and exit points.

Market should churn through the right issues soon given the volumes.

[dragonz]

CNX

Heres an example of The types of Setups I look for when swing trading.

You will note that No gains have yet been made on this Pullback, The Pull back Down is flushing out all the profit takers and weaker hands before I enter.

My entry would be the first Higher high for a Swing Back to resistance. (55c)

(Indicators not Shown)

RSI (14 Wilder) is Sitting above 50, (53)
50 is taken by some traders as Support, If 50 Breaks most Traders will exit. Trades below 50 are less likely to recover and best to avoid until they fall below 30.

Directional Movement System- DM+ is above DM- - This Means a Uptrend is in place, ADX is 37 - above 30 means the uptrend is very Strong and more likely to continue after the Pullback, High Directional movement (ADX) means faster gains. (ADX measures Trend Strength)

A Pre-set Target Buy Order can be trailed Down the High of each day ready to Pick up the First Higher High, this gets us into the trade in a timely manner.

Waiting for End of day indicators to fire will make you one day later, Swing trades are generally short term, Risk increases greatly after holding beyond the 4th day because more Traders come into profit with time , by getting in one day later i.e the next day via a indicator..... you have given up 25% of your potential gains i.e given up 1 day in 4.

I have added Fibonacci Levels to the Chart, The 38.2% Fibonacci level is at the area of resistance we want to break on Tuesday for a higher high.

The 50% Fib (long blue line) and the small Blue line just above it ....are levels of current Support.

A Entry at Support 37.5c Could also be taken on Tuesday if Available.

For a Higher High to occur on Tuesday 41.5c would have to be broken and the pre-set order would be executed at around 42c for a Swing Target to just below 55c.

On every new high Stops can be Trailed up the low of that day (end of day) or up to the day prior, until a profit target is reached or profit locks/Stops are hit.



http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/cnx_ax07jan09_to_14apr09.png

Hi Dragonz,

RE: IBA it looks good, but my entry would have occurred on the 3rd of April following the break above 62c the high of the 2nd and no later, i.e the very first Higher High Following a series of Lower Highs.


AA (Just my opinion Not Advice)


Hii AA

Thanks for sharing the above with us. Have spent most of the day today just back testing some of my trades using the ADX as a buy indicator. Also tried it with varies combinations i.e omitting trades that are between RSI(14) 30-50.

Had a degee of success (for my medium term trades) using as a buy signal the "crossover" between the DM+ and the DM-, . Still found a 10% trailing stop (from the high at real time) maximised my profits. One of the problems I found however was the "whip sawing" could sometimes give a false start, but I guess you get this no matter which indicator you use.

For my short-term trades I used in conjunction with a OBV and found a startling degree of sucess picking the very early stages of a trend when using both the DM+ and OBV. Also found this to be a good exit strategy. This would probaly work best if done in Real time instead of waiting till the end of the day to update.

The ADX system is a great way to instantly visualise whether a trend has been establised and how strong that trend is. Will definately incorporate it in my swing-trades from now on.

Once again thanks AA

Dragonz

[dragonz]

Good work testing your Strategies Dragonz,
One thing to consider when using the DMS is the lag this indicator has, a basic DM+ DM- cross over will likely give you a late signal, even when using a 6 day period. (for my trading timeframe anyway, yours might be totally different)
None the less, it is a perfect filter if you know how to work with this lag.

That is one reason why I like DM- above DM+ with a ADX (14) above 50.

A ADX (14) above 50 means the current trend is nearing exhaustion, DM- above DM+ means the trend that is nearing exhaustion is a downtrend. From that set up on, we can rely on more reactive indicators for faster timely entries.. like the Stochastic indicator to Break above 20 from below (or the RSI) as well as using the break above the previous days high rule or break above a certain resistance level (following a trend line break)to get a more timely entry than what the DMS provides, Applied Trend lines and awareness of critical support and resistance is value able in making of the trading decision. Because the method is fairly longish term in the world of trading, its best not to run your stops too close, rather place them at the lowest low in the last 14 days or (low of previous swing low) and trail stops up to the low of the next swing low on every new high.... if that makes sense? bit hard to explain (my terminology is all self taught, possible incorrect trading language use, so bear with me)

This ADX set up is good for Shorter term investors with a time frame of up to 1 -2 months possible beyond from my experience. If DM+ crosses above DM- and the ADX starts Trending up and still fairly high this could become a longer term position.

Should DM+ not Cross above DM- before the ADX drops below 30. the trade should be exited.

It is best to use Scanner/Screeners to Find these Setups, i.e ADX above 50 & DM- above DM+ as you will likely never find them yourself.

You won't find many if the market is running red hot, like now. This is why it is important to learn to trade in various Styles, to make the most of every market environment at any given time.

DMS is the best Indicator screening filter I know of, there are so many ways to use it as a filter, it takes a lot of eye balling on charts to get a feel for how this indicator reacts in given circumstances. But the time invested is more than worth it.

This method has just eventuated from my many hours of chart study watching how the ADX reacts to various markets, it is not a standard TA taught method as far as im aware, however I believe in many ways it is related to the Welles Wilder , ADX turning point concept? with a few additions ;)

From a quick Google it looks like some investors also combined the ADX turning point concept with parabolic SAR another one of Welles Wilders creations. What a Awesome Guy ha..

I have another setup using high ADX readings and a Combination of MACD and parabolic SAR, these 3 go together well , but ill leave that one for another day.

DMS = Directional Movement System

P.s re whipsaws: in stocks with high directional movement in the reversal process there will be some volatile swings in the beginning, it is best to keep right out of this range after entering or you will get stopped out too early, Setting Stops of 10% from the high does't accommodate for the stocks currently volatility, therefore stops should be applied on a support level basis i.e just below the lowest low rather than a set standard % basis. If the Trade doesn't fit your risk tolerance i.e distance between stop and Buy price .. Don't trade it. If you must apply a stop that isn't based on S&R then use a multiple of ATR average true range as your stop, this will help take volatility into account for that particular stock.
2-3 times the ATR minus the stock price is a fairly standard volatility adjusted trailing stop.
There is a ATR indicator which makes knowing the ATR easy, Some charting software will provide on Chart ATR trailing Stops. However I recommend Support and resistance based stops.

An example was SRL, at one point in time If I remember correctly? it was ranging around the 30% mark on just daily range alone i.e the ATR was a third of its trading price, in this case Your 10% stop had no chance and would have resulted in a unnecessary loss via stoploss, based on daily market Noise alone.

Getting a good exit whist letting profits run... "but" at the same time not giving profits back... is the hardest part of trading for me, I'm forever trying to find an edge, but there is always a compromise to some degree.

A 6 day DM+ DM- cross over with a 14 period ADX above 25 but below 40 still makes a slightly late but v reliable signal, all DMS signals need to applied with the Break above rule to rule out those Whipsaws and false signals that you were getting...

OBV Breakouts is definitely something to include, or include volume spikes as a turning point indicator, Extremely high ADX reading with large volume spikes (4x average +) are very strong signals that that trend is going to change.

All the above are just as few ideas and thoughts, keep testing and playing around until you find something you like.

The search for the Holy Grail :D Follow the road into the distance...

AA really interesting stuff and will have a bit of a play around with ATR trailing stops. The problem I had with using previous support basis was sometimes I got stopped out too early or to late and on a percentage basis over the last 10 of my trades found the trailing 10% gave the highest return. but yes when the market is volatile you can get chucked out frequently. Plus it seems to suit my personality better.

I will be using my new system using DM+ and OBV breakout to idenify my next kill (day/shortterm?)

ABY (target buy 34) has been identified as a likely canditate so watch this space. :D

D

[ops.normal]

what's you target for that one AA?

[STRAT]

ABY (target buy 34) has been identified as a likely canditate so watch this space. :D

DNice spotting DragonZ

I fire under ABY today

[STRAT]

ABY (target buy 34) has been identified as a likely canditate so watch this space. :D


One recommendation from AA and its up 52% - good effort. Now, if only you could pick a stock I actually own :-)If you want those sorts of favors KW you have to at least have to get the name of the spotter right :eek::D

[ops.normal]

good spot AA :D

[ops.normal]

I've PM'd you AA. :)

[ops.normal]

Thanks mate, that's exactly what I was after :)

[STRAT]

LOL Thanks for sharing what you arent sharing fellas :D

[ops.normal]

Strat if you knew what I am still learning, you'd shake your head and tell me one of my training wheels is out of balance :D

[dragonz]

CBH hit 12.5c , Thats me out now, best not be greedy.

AA

Hey good score AA :D

[dragonz]

No sold out at the end of trading yesterday :(. I completely emptied out my portfolio so am 100% cashed up .

Looking at ckk at the moment. My charting tools are delayed :mad: so waiting on the right indicators.

Have indentified some promising targets but just waiting on my charts to upload this mornings action.

I suppose you have "real time " charting software.

Will make that investment soon

[dragonz]

Just jumped on to ckk @ 26.5. Bit of a gap developing between buyers and sellers but interest building.

PS stoploss set at 20.5

[dragonz]

Just running on the hourly snap shot data, I don't really need or rely on indicators much any more, I can just read the price .. previous contracting ranges, bars, S&R etc, and usually anticipate what the indicators will do ahead of time anyway by watching the market depth and marching of orders which are real time.

I usually just use the indicators for filtering, to find my watchlist.

All very basic stuff really

I'm normaly interested in the OBV to look for unusual volumes being traded.

[dragonz]

wow dragonz that's a lot of room to move...mind if it breaks through 28ish it would be in clear territory. How does ckk rate for you in terms of liquidity?
JK

"How does ckk rate for you in terms of liquidity?" In the uncomfitable territory.
Not really a trading stock but the positives are that ckk have increasing volumes in the last week which means it might just become a bit more liquid.

Only brought brought $4000A odd worth and have a wide stop-loss to cater for the profit takers who will bail some time today.

Good announcement today. This is higher risk but could be a biggie if it continues along currant tread.

Its all up to an increasing OBV. As AA pointed out if volumes dry up then its time to bail. Might sit on this one until the Mt Horner well test though.

D

[STRAT]

Hi Dragonz, Ive been testing this software http://www.nebadawn.com/ on the ASX

Ive been kicking myself because it pulled up a Trend Line touch (touch of resistance) at 19c for PEM, and I totally
forgot and missed the Trade, look at PEM go today lol

You might want to check out the software.Hi AA,
I downloaded the program and its irritating me already LOL
How do you load the ASX onto it:confused:

[STRAT]

Nothing good ever comes easy or free lol

you will need to purchase some data or a quote downloader.haha
There had to be a catch. There always is :D

[STRAT]

This is the cheapest option with no on going costs.

http://www.trading-tools.com/mld.htmThanks for that AA

[dragonz]

Thanks for that AA

Ditto AA:D

[ops.normal]

just trying to reverse engineer your thinking there AA - 7.5 being the highest close recently from the 25th March?

[ops.normal]

what are the factors that cause the price to shift overnight? The price gapping overnight is one thing that concerns me a little holding something which might be just in profit...perhaps to be stopped out the next morning as it shifts.

[dragonz]

I'm a bit annoyed with myself. Having accumulated a fair few illiquid stocks, decided it was time for a bit of housekeeping and totaly emptied my portfolio yesterday. I had vowed that I was only going to concentrate on swing trading until I got the knack of it. So whats the first thing I do this morning is buy another pie in the sky venture (ckk) that is currantly sticking out in my previously clean portfolio, like dogs bollicks.:eek:

Even had an order in for the options at one stage.

Have largely stayed out of the market today as I'm a bit nervous of any major corrections on the DOW overnight. Have you any thoughts on this AA.


I've had excellant gains over the last 3 months but no need to get over confidant. ;)

d

[croesus]

Same.... sitting on a few I should have flicked last week for 20%/30%.. now only 10% up.. may divest tmrw

[Thumpa]

MDT ..... 6 cents nearly cleared out.

[dragonz]

yep mdt and pbg are my plays for the morning. Will add to if they start to run.

[STRAT]

Good on ya AA and Dragonz
Nice to have a day trading thread here finally :D

[Thumpa]

watch PRR breaking 4 cents ... may have missed the boat though.

[dragonz]

watch PRR breaking 4 cents ... may have missed the boat though.

Why the sudden interest in this share?:confused:

[Thumpa]

volume / price action

[Thumpa]

small punt on VIR @ 35 cents

[dragonz]

volume / price action

I meant to say why the markets sudden interest in this share the last 2 days or so. Is there an announcement coming I wonder.

Thanks for the heads up on MDT. Just increased my holding. Has come up on my watchlist as a good swing trade candidate.

PBG I'm waiting for a break above 47 before I fully commit.

D

[dragonz]

Great run MDT. Has a few days to run methinks.

AA heres a bottom picker for you - ESV -

Exhausted -APX above 50 in declining negetive trend. -dme and +dme crossover happening as we speak. Very spikey OBV. All the signs of a possible bottom and trend reversal.

[Thumpa]

small punt on VIR @ 35 cents


LOL .... trading halt

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090416/pdf/31h2z05tldfbnm.pdf

Looks like they may have received a takeover offer?. Anyway.pulled my sell order . May get interesting.

[dragonz]

LOL .... trading halt

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090416/pdf/31h2z05tldfbnm.pdf

Looks like they may have received a takeover offer?. Anyway.pulled my sell order . May get interesting.

my fingers are crossed for you thumpa.

[Thumpa]

MOF .... large volume on the open... watching...

[Thumpa]

didn't see the first trade , but seen 1m scoop's at market...

[dragonz]

kzl broke through 85 resistance on opening. Im in - up to 1 buck but im expecting a possible pull back as traders sell so havnt set a stop loss as yet.

[dragonz]

kzl broke through 85 resistance on opening. Im in - up to 1 buck but im expecting a possible pull back as traders sell so havnt set a stop loss as yet.

kzl has broken through Resistance 87 and resistance2 @ 102 so its all blue sky stuff now.

[dragonz]

Wow Huge move by KZL, too scared to chase it now though.

Pull back happening already as expected. Was up to 1.23 at one stage.

Nice time to jump on for the next wave.

I dont chase sp anymore as I've missed out on too many %points waiting on pullbacks that sometimes dont eventuate. All @market for all my buys and sells now.

I exited MDT for a small gain. you still on this AA.

PS PBG might be due for a small run soon. Just waiting on a couple of indicators to fire. :D

[dragonz]

It seems to be having a bit of difficulty cracking 45c and holding. FA wise it looks reasonable - always need undies in a recession, right?

I prefer to let them swing

lol:D:D:D

[dragonz]

I prefer to let them swing

lol:D:D:D

swing-trading I meant to say ;)

[dragonz]

Hey Dragon, SBM is looking like a good set up for Swing Trading, Series of lower highs and lower Lows, steep sharp decline, Could take the first higher high.. as a entry, What ya reckon.
http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/sbm_ax_price_daily13nov08_to_24apr0.png

Not sure if this is finished its decline yet AA.

DMI seems to be on the increase again which is why the -DM has increased over the last 4 trading days. Would rather wait for a reversal of the downtreading +DM and OBV 1st. Just cant see a bottom forming yet but I'm new to this syou probaly see something that I've missed.

ESV seems to show some of those bottom forming traits you mentioned.
Exhuasted DMI over 50 from a sustained downtread, now moving down. Crossover of -DM and +DM and nice spikey and increasing OBV.

What do you think?

[dragonz]

OOps sorry AA I just reread your post. My mistake. A higher higher would have the effect of reversing its currant trend and definately one for the watchlist.:D

[Thumpa]

Just Sold my GDN oppies for 1.3 cents. Not the 5 bagger I wanted but a 33.3% return will do me fine for a days work. :D

Mate ..... Please don't check GDNO now :eek:

[dragonz]

kzl broke through 85 resistance on opening. Im in - up to 1 buck but im expecting a possible pull back as traders sell so havnt set a stop loss as yet.

KZL has pulled back as expected and is now around the $1 mark again. This was a bit of a cock-up for me.

This would be my typical short term day trade or scalp trade. I had this on my watchlist to buy on opening if resistance1 (87) was exceded. My second resistance was $1.02 and 3rd $1.19 (6 month high etc). Basically I move my stop to the next resistance point soon after its been broken and this way I can be in and out in a day. All very basic stuff.

Unfortanetly for me I had a phone call from a friend from the States and by the time I got rid of her I checked and saw that the share had moved all the way up to 1.24 and back down to $1.07. Normaly I would have locked the profit in at $1.19. This "phone call cost me $3800A :mad:

[dragonz]

Mate ..... Please don't check GDNO now :eek:

story of my life :cool:

[dragonz]

DMI is way too slow for swing trading, I would throw all those indicators away unless you have real time charting.

DMI is showing the current trend which is obvious to anyone, it will only start changing one the price does, i.e from when the first higher high occurs, all indicators lag price, thats why I don't use them for entries because your just better off Trading the price, OBV lags the first movements too because first price has to move up and then volume doesn't move into a stock until its clear to even blind freddy that the trend is changing, by that time you have to compete with others for the same stock, that might be ok if your a Trend follower and want to hold for some time, your entry will be less important, but for swing trading I don't thing so.

I think OBV is best suited to Breakout Trading to make sure Breakouts are sustainable for a few days after your entry, but I think for swing trading you need to be much more nimble and responsive.

I trade Breaks of trend lines and and breaks of resistance and I swing trade as well, I think they are both very very different styles and require very different techniques.

To successfully Swing trade I think you require the use of trailing buy stops to get you in (these trail down the lower highs), indicators such as williams%R and stochastics should have been oversold for at least 3 days before applying trailing buy stops for entry.

Just my opinion.


Hey thanks for that AA. My charting tools is 1/2hr delayed and doesnt start charting the days activities until about 1.15 for some strange reason. Yep a higher high definately is a good indicator. Have brought this into my swing trading strategy. Im a bit thick so usually can only digest small amounts of data at a time and need to chew over it for a while but definately see your logic.

Thanks a lot for sharing you knowledge.

D

[dragonz]

**** happens, bummer.

Did you have your Target Buy order set before market open to pick up the stock on the first clean break of resistance, this is how I enter my stocks. I almost never use at market orders as they can get you in later and make you rely on your emotions too much while a stocks running.

p.s just looked at the chart...looks like the break of resistance was yesterday... Purchasing today would be chasing a stock in my books. (more unnecessary risk than necessary is what I mean)

(hope I don't come across as a know it all, just want to help that's all)

No I didnt have a target buy order. These are the parts of my trading that are sloppy and I need to clean up.

Using my newly aquired swing trading stategies I would have entered on the 9th April. However this was a scalp trade. 87 was yesterday high. I had my watchlist buzz me on my mobile(which I keep next to the computer ) if this opened above 87 cents which it did. Took me a few minutes to deal with with all my activated stocks. All very sloppy and primative stuff which I will clean up.

I still like to scalp trade as I've made a lot of money this year (for me) and I find it easy but I want to have at least half my funds in a swing trade or perhaps a combination of both. Need to learn all the tech stuff first as I was doing it all on "instinct".

[dragonz]

What are you using for your charting Dragonz, whos your data provider? 1/2hr delayed is ok, Im using subscribed IC charts,its only hourly snapshot data, but I mainly just use it to mark historical S&R points Trendlines and basic screening.

I'm interested in getting back into active Day trading again, I was with CMC until their charting software packed up on me and needed resetting half way through a volatile trade, that was the last straw.

Yep Im using IC pro as well. Is this Hourly update in data.

I,ve got a long way to go so that good eneough for me.

I've also got an cmc account and a direct boking with mcquarie account but usually use direct broking because thier service is second to none.

The Dynamic Data service is handy for cmc though if your scalping as it allows you to view live market information without needing to click a refresh button. Data on the screen is updated in real time

Time to cook dinner now.
good hunting for tomorrow

[STRAT]

story of my life :cool:haha Dragonz, think of it like this

The long investors have ho make 12045%pa to match that and i havent even allowed for compounding :eek:

[dragonz]

haha Dragonz, think of it like this

The long investors have to make 12045%pa to match that and i havent even allowed for compounding :eek:

lol Good way to look at it Strat. :D

[dragonz]

KZL has pulled back as expected and is now around the $1 mark again. This was a bit of a cock-up for me.

This would be my typical short term day trade or scalp trade. I had this on my watchlist to buy on opening if resistance1 (87) was exceded. My second resistance was $1.02 and 3rd $1.19 (6 month high etc). Basically I move my stop to the next resistance point soon after its been broken and this way I can be in and out in a day. All very basic stuff.

Unfortanetly for me I had a phone call from a friend from the States and by the time I got rid of her I checked and saw that the share had moved all the way up to 1.24 and back down to $1.07. Normaly I would have locked the profit in at $1.19. This "phone call cost me $3800A :mad:

Ready for another scalp trade if the sp hits 1.02. Looks like it could be a strong opening. Left the phone of the hook :D

[dragonz]

CGG - 15c gone in a few bites, very few sellers left now

Good call thanx :D

[dragonz]

Buyer/Seller ratio is pretty favorable so fingers crossed.

Hi AA - I hope your having a better day then me. Closed off all positions except for EXT which I have taken a strong position in.

Time to cook dinner.

Good hunting for tomorrow

[Thumpa]

Hoping MOF holds 20.5-21 to break the range.
MCW ticking along nicely touching 35 cents.

[jdg]

has anybody looked at ACL as a trade? it's bolted in recent times. i'm in the stock and am keen to get a traders opinion on it. if anybody has had a look, i'd be really interested to hear. cheers and good luck with your trading, i’m enjoying the thread.,

-j

[Phaedrus]

(1) 4/2/09 Trailing short stop broken. Buy at 8.5 cents. Unconfirmed by volume.
(2) 9/2/09 Moving average broken. Buy at 8.9 cents. Unconfirmed by volume.
(3) 3/4/09 Trendline break. Buy at 7.9 cents. Unconfirmed by volume, but 3 signals now.
(4) 16/4/09 Momentum signal. Buy at 8.4 cents. Confirmed by above average volume.
(5) 17/4/09 Stochastic oscillator Buy at 10 cents. Confirmed by above average volume
(6) 17/4/09 On Balance Volume buy at 10 cents. Confirmed by above average volume.
(7) 20/4/09 Uptrend confirmed. Resistance at 10.5 cents overcome on above average volume.
(8) Note steadily increasing volume on Up days (green bars)

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/MLX420.gif

[tricha]

Great stuff Phaedrus, looking at the past as usual.

What does the future tell ;)


(1) 4/2/09 Trailing short stop broken. Buy at 8.5 cents. Unconfirmed by volume.
(2) 9/2/09 Moving average broken. Buy at 8.9 cents. Unconfirmed by volume.
(3) 3/4/09 Trendline break. Buy at 7.9 cents. Unconfirmed by volume, but 3 signals now.
(4) 16/4/09 Momentum signal. Buy at 8.4 cents. Confirmed by above average volume.
(5) 17/4/09 Stochastic oscillator Buy at 10 cents. Confirmed by above average volume
(6) 17/4/09 On Balance Volume buy at 10 cents. Confirmed by above average volume.
(7) 20/4/09 Uptrend confirmed. Resistance at 10.5 cents overcome on above average volume.
(8) Note steadily increasing volume on Up days (green bars)

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/MLX420.gif

[STRAT]

Great stuff Phaedrus, looking at the past as usual.

What does the future tell ;)The future is bright :D
Get in quick Tricha. The clouds say buy. Theres a happy quarter moon a rising and the sword on Orions belt is giving a buy signal too by pointing at the correct entry point.


oh and sorry about the poor artistry. A few too many ports Im afraid :o

[STRAT]

Hi Phaedrus, a question if I may.
OBV is often one of the first indicators to fire when signalling a possible buy but this is often not the case when signalling a sell. Would that be a fair statement and assessment?

[dragonz]

The future is bright :D
Get in quick Tricha. The clouds say buy. Theres a happy quarter moon a rising and the sword on Orions belt is giving a buy signal too by pointing at the correct entry point.


oh and sorry about the poor artistry. A few too many ports Im afraid :o

Thanks a lot Strat - you made HOT coffee come out of my nose - and it HURT. :mad:


:D:D:D

[dragonz]

(1) 4/2/09 Trailing short stop broken. Buy at 8.5 cents. Unconfirmed by volume.
(2) 9/2/09 Moving average broken. Buy at 8.9 cents. Unconfirmed by volume.
(3) 3/4/09 Trendline break. Buy at 7.9 cents. Unconfirmed by volume, but 3 signals now.
(4) 16/4/09 Momentum signal. Buy at 8.4 cents. Confirmed by above average volume.
(5) 17/4/09 Stochastic oscillator Buy at 10 cents. Confirmed by above average volume
(6) 17/4/09 On Balance Volume buy at 10 cents. Confirmed by above average volume.
(7) 20/4/09 Uptrend confirmed. Resistance at 10.5 cents overcome on above average volume.
(8) Note steadily increasing volume on Up days (green bars)

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/MLX420.gif


Just another indicator to add to your list Phaedrus

The ADX indicator has began to strengthen from below 20 and is moving above 20 as we speak. This is a sign that the trading range is ending and a trend is developing.

I have this indicator on my Filter and when I backtested fould it very useful for picking up the beginings of strong uptrends.

D

[STRAT]

Thanks a lot Strat - you made HOT coffee come out of my nose - and it HURT. :mad:


:D:D:DSorry about the burns Dragonz. I hope its not an omen:eek: Best be careful out there today ;)

[dragonz]

Sorry about the burns Dragonz. I hope its not an omen:eek: Best be careful out there today ;)

I've thrown all my newly aquired T/A skills and my scalp trading stratagies out the window and bet the lot on EXT.:eek: Well perhaps not the lot but a large portion of my dismally small capital. :o I smell an announcement in the air :rolleyes: or perhaps a takeover in the wind. ;)

Now I'm of to the doctors to explain how I burnt the insides of my nostrils:D - and pick up my high-blood pressure pills while I'm there.

[STRAT]

I've thrown all my newly aquired T/A skills and my scalp trading stratagies out the window and bet the lot on EXT.:eek: Well perhaps not the lot but a large portion of my dismally small capital. :o I smell an announcement in the air :rolleyes: or perhaps a takeover in the wind. ;)

Now I'm of to the doctors to explain how I burnt the insides of my nostrils:D - and pick up my high-blood pressure pills while I'm there.Mate, dont do that. Take some loo paper/ tissue. Run it under cold water and poke it up your nose. It will sooth the burns. Stay at your PC all day. Its gonna be a rocky one :D

[Thumpa]

watch PRR breaking 4 cents ... may have missed the boat though.


apparently not. I'm in.

now 4.8 cents

[Thumpa]

PRR out at 5 c

[Thumpa]

PRR out at 5 c

bugger 5.5 now.......sheeeezzz she's a wriggly one.

[Footsie]

AA


If you want a gold play try SLR

TA wise, its much better than SBM

FA is pretty good on the stock too. take a look.

Cheers

[Phaedrus]

Great stuff Phaedrus, looking at the past as usual. It's a chart Tricha, Charts show us the latest data and its historical context. This provides us with useful information as to the current state of the market. ALL statistical analysis (including all economic and fundamental analysis) is based on historical data - it's the only sort of data we have! Whether we use descriptive statistics or inductive statistics, all study is based completely and totally on past data. Capiche?


What does the future tell? Well, one of the most reliable technical "buy" indicators is a breakout above previous resistance. The chart I posted showed such a breakout. While this does not guarantee a profitable trade, it certainly improves the odds of success. In addition, the chart gives a nice clear example of early unconfirmed buy signals that most people would ignore being confirmed step by step as the long downtrend slowed and then reversed. I thought it was a worthwhile contribution to the thread.

[Phaedrus]

OBV is often one of the first indicators to fire when signalling a possible buy but this is often not the case when signalling a sell. Would that be a fair statement and assessment? It's not something that I have observed, Strat. I guess that the accuracy of your statement would depend entirely on the sensitivity of the other indicators you are comparing it to.

[Thumpa]

MLX held above 10c support / resistance on an overall down day along with receiving ASX speeding ticket. It's another good sign.

[dragonz]

Great stuff ......
What does the future tell ;)

Come back next week and he will tell you :D

[AMR]

The most obvious trade from my point of view would be to short theASX after the falsebreakout.

[Phaedrus]

Just another indicator to add to your list Phaedrus.
The ADX indicator has begun to strengthen from below 20 and is moving above 20 as we speak. This is a sign that the trading range is ending and a trend is developing. I have this indicator on my Filter and when I backtested found it very useful for picking up the beginings of strong uptrends. That's not my experience, D. The chart below identifies the points at which ADX moved above 20 and marks them with grey vertical lines. There have been about a dozen over the last couple of years and as you can see that not one "picked up the beginnings of a strong uptrend". The latest one fired long after more conventional indicators flagged a change of trend - in other words, a stock screener requiring an ADX level of >20 would have excluded MLX as a prospect while confirmed signals were firing giving an entry at around 8.4 cents. MLX has risen 36% since then and the ADX indicated a possible buy only today. That's way too slow for me!

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/MLX421.gif

[Thumpa]

MEL may be a candidate for you Swingers out there. :p
Watch closely for a possible bounce around 45 cent trend line.
Nice ascending triangle formation with 60 cents Resistance target.

DYOR

http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u150/soundzgoodgood/MEL.png

[Phaedrus]

The thing which concerned me, due to me being a shorter term trader was that a lot of prior percentage gains had already taken place over the last few days.....Currently MLX has already risen around 40-45% within the last 3 days, Thats a lot, as a short term trader that seems like too much in such a short period of time and many holders may be wanting to take profit shortly. I'm sure you're right - there will be some profit-taking by short-term traders after such a big rise.


My question I guess is, as a short term trader who holds only 3-5 days is it still ok to buy something which has already bolted by 40% for example, or is my risk now a little too high and I should buy the pullback or look for something in the earlier stages of breaking out....A short-term trader would not be waiting for the confirmation that longer term traders like to have before buying. Right now is way too late for anyone with an intended 3 day holding period to enter. Someone like you would be selling today more probably.

This is not dissimilar to the ETC situation where longer-term traders were still getting in when short-term traders such as yourself were getting out.

[STRAT]

It's not something that I have observed, Strat. I guess that the accuracy of your statement would depend entirely on the sensitivity of the other indicators you are comparing it to.Thanks Phaedrus. I will look at it again :D

[Corporate]

CGG - Watch for the Break of 16c, then it will be all on!

Disc holding 14c

sh1t there isn't much on the sell side!

[Thumpa]

Had a 10 min fling with PNO as well 0.6 to 0.7
Those Bio stocks going nuts lately.

Stopped out on a few today MCW , MDT etc , breaking down past the trendline.

Happy to be on the side line for a spell and just watch the game for a while.

Anyone feeling a bit nervous about the market in general?

[AMR]

Hey AA was that you buying intra-day to push it over resistance at 15.5c before dumping the lot :D:D?

[Ketel One]

Anyone feeling a bit nervous about the market in general?

Yup, am almost completely cashed up now. Both the Dow & All ords starting to look like they're not going to break their longer term down trends:

Dow:
http://iforce.co.nz/i/4322dd10983fb4e5256ec45d43863860.png

All ords:
http://iforce.co.nz/i/8f68042f74ae8e9aeb475daa895967fb.png

[dragonz]

You'll be so proud of me guys, I lost my day trading virginity today :-)

In on PNO at .008 out at .014

Thanks for all the fatherly advice on this thread :-)
I now need to go have a lie down and recover from the stress of it all....

Good on ya mate :D

[STRAT]

haha nah mate CGG is just too good to give away like that, u cheeky bugger lolAA it seems AMR is moving to the dark side with thoughts like that. He recently asked this also.

" Hi all, what is the method to buy the closing price on the ASX?"

Dont do it AMR. Dont let the dark side seduce you :D:D:D:p

[croesus]

NDO... may be a mover (up) today... some buying strength appearing...

[dragonz]

Happy to be on the side line for a spell and just watch the game for a while.

Anyone feeling a bit nervous about the market in general?

Hi Thumpa

I'm happy to take things easy and just in cruise mode.

had 3 buy orders in this morning, none of which where hit. Missed BLY by .5 cents, PNO by .1cents and NEU by .5 cents. Just happy to wait for these stocks to come to me then to chase them.

Got a strong position in EXT which will probaly be a medium term hold for me. It got within 3 cents of hitting my stop-loss. Back up today to my entry price and building for another run to $5 plus. My short term target is $5.50 with a possible $10+ by years end, if this becomes a takeover target. Massive, massive potential IMHO

[dragonz]

SBM is now one to watch for a reversion to the mean type play, its has deviated 20% away from its 8 day EMA at 26c.

Would have to time it well though, trying to determine where support will be isn't easy. Any ideas?

Historically over the last 3 years+ every time SBM has Deviated 20% away from its 8 day moving average it has found support and bounced back hard the next day, sometimes leading into very strong rallies.

havnt they got only 3 months worth of cash in thier kitty? Might be thinking of someone else. I'm To lazy to have a look.

[dragonz]

Bugger had to take the 28c line before they were all gone.

Your a brave man AA. And as they say "Fortune favours the brave".

Large gaps forming in EXTs sell side. Could start to run hard.

PNO is looking interesting though would like to see a little more support on the buy side before a commit.

[dragonz]

Your a brave man AA. And as they say "Fortune favours the brave".

Large gaps forming in EXTs sell side. Could start to run hard.

PNO is looking interesting though would like to see a little more support on the buy side before a commit.

There goes EXT. :D and SBM :D

[dragonz]

EXT great run to the finish. Uranium plays will be the flavour of the week. :D

[dragonz]

EXT has certainly been a strong Runner, SBM just holding support at the moment, in hindsight I should have held off to see what the international holders do tomorrow. 27.5c is holding that's the main thing.

DYL has been massive today!


Yeah DYL has been massive. Good news for EXT as well as they are right next door and its probaly the same Uranium deposit.


Was almost tempted to sell a portion of EXT to buy DYL but I might wait until the drill results are out. I'm very heavy in this stock so I'm enjoying the ride.

Nothing else took my fancy today. Did follow PNO when they broke the 1 cent support. Traders are a fickle bunch and will get over bio-techs pretty quickly. Hopefully Uranium will be "flavour" of the week.

[croesus]

Sold all ND0.... for a small gain.... purchased more CUE for the longterm.....

[Thumpa]

Brought PEN on the open. Now locked in to another trading halt :rolleyes:

[dragonz]

Nice inverted Head and Sholders confirmed on EXT. A run to test support at $5.42 could be on the cards.

[dragonz]

Ok for those who like to buy the dips in Up Trends, heres two I think you might like.

MAH & GJT

Schwager Volatility Ratio less than 0.5 today

Volume Dropped to less than Half of its normal volume. (0.5 of a 50 VEMA) today.

In a Pull back we want to see low volatility and low volume.

In other words a sign that the selling has dried up.

Both are in Strong uptrends with a ADX above 35, both have pulled back.

Buy the Dip.

MAE
http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/mah_ax18feb09_to_28apr09.png

GJT
http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/gjt_ax21jan09_to_29apr09.png

Enter on higher high & or the Pull back Trend Line Break.

Other Up Trend Pullbacks or Trend pauses to consider : ASL, HFA, HST, HVN, MPO, NMS, PNA, SRK, SWK, VMG,

DYOR

Thanks AA

Will spend Sat anaylising what you just said.
On a personal note, it takes a special type of person who is willing to share ones knowledge with others. You contribition has not gone unappreciated.

Many Thanks

D

[foodee]

Interesting that MAH is in Trading Halt today - second
one in as many weeks!

disc: holding

[AMR]

ABY and TSE

pullback to previous resistance (now support hopefully). I think the same with AAX although that one is very volatile.

[STRAT]

WOW AA
Have you been busy or does the new software spit them out for you?

[dragonz]

Hi Thumpa

I'm happy to take things easy and just in cruise mode.

had 3 buy orders in this morning, none of which where hit. Missed BLY by .5 cents, PNO by .1cents and NEU by .5 cents. Just happy to wait for these stocks to come to me then to chase them.

Got a strong position in EXT which will probaly be a medium term hold for me. It got within 3 cents of hitting my stop-loss. Back up today to my entry price and building for another run to $5 plus. My short term target is $5.50 with a possible $10+ by years end, if this becomes a takeover target. Massive, massive potential IMHO

Got up to $4.70 and might just hit that $5 today. Tomorrow will be a big day with drill results due out. Definatelty holding on to these in the short term.

[Ponda]

AA,
Why would someone want to 'cap' a share at, in this case, 17 cents. Would he not be better increasing his sell price to recieve more income.

What am I missing.

[STRAT]

AA,
Why would someone want to 'cap' a share at, in this case, 17 cents. Would he not be better increasing his sell price to recieve more income.

What am I missing.Usually done because they are buying.

[Ponda]

It's apparent that I need to go away and read a lot more books, as that really doesn't make any sense what so ever to me.

Thanks anyway.

I've just read AA's reply and makes a bit more sense. But I'm off to try and read more.

[STRAT]

It's apparent that I need to go away and read a lot more books, as that really doesn't make any sense what so ever to me.

Thanks anyway.

I've just read AA's reply and makes a bit more sense. But I'm off to try and read more.Think of it like this Ponda
Lets say you want to buy 10 million shares in a company. You sacrifice 1 million to get the other 9 cheaper.

Personally I think there is a lot less capping going on than some would have us believe. It takes deep pockets for it to work and it can backfire big time.
You will see capping mentioned a lot on Hot Copper :D;)

[Ponda]

Hi Strat,

I'd be happy with that explaination but there doesn't seem to be sacrifice like that happening. There are six buyers lined up wanting 1.1 mil and then another 4 wanting 215,000. ie not one single large buyer

Yet the seller is trying to sell their 1.7 mil, unless as AA as suggested, they has put a huge amount on offer and then once they have the required amount they pull the balance of the unsold shares from the market. They must just hope that a big shark doesn't come in and take them all with one big bit. Seems very risky to me.

[dartMonkey]

Thanx AA and Strat for that, interesting.
If it closes at 16.5 or above, as it looks like it will, then that should confirm the breakout shouldn't it? Especially given the rising volume over the preceding days.

[STRAT]

Hi Strat,

I'd be happy with that explaination but there doesn't seem to be sacrifice like that happening. There are six buyers lined up wanting 1.1 mil and then another 4 wanting 215,000. ie not one single large buyer

Yet the seller is trying to sell their 1.7 mil, unless as AA as suggested, they has put a huge amount on offer and then once they have the required amount they pull the balance of the unsold shares from the market. They must just hope that a big shark doesn't come in and take them all with one big bit. Seems very risky to me.Hi Ponda,
When someone is buying a large quantity they often have a range of bids and feed them in gradually. If you put up a buy for 10 million you would give your intentions away and the game would be lost.

Anyway its just an explanation for capping which may or may not apply to this stock. I havent looked at it. It could also just be some one with a truckload of shares who wants them sold.

Just remember the depth is at best only part of the picture. For example orders can be filled without ever getting to the depth page.

[ScrappyO]

AA could you post a chart for BBP. Interested on any views. Bought in at .038, I understand that it is a high risk stock.
Cheers S

[STRAT]

AA could you post a chart for BBP. Interested on any views. Bought in at .038, I understand that it is a high risk stock.
Cheers SNice timing ScrappyO. Chart looks good. Best have an exit stratergy ready though.

[ScrappyO]

Thanks AA for the chart.



Nice timing ScrappyO. Chart looks good. Best have an exit stratergy ready though.

mmmm... not very good at implementing those i always end up in a frenzied panic :)

[STRAT]

Thanks AA for the chart.




mmmm... not very good at implementing those i always end up in a frenzied panic :)Heres a simple one which could induce relaxation :D but by no means advice :eek:

Sell if it drops below the (simple 21 day) moving average.

[Thumpa]

IMU ... out at 14. Back in the queue at 10 for any dump

[ScrappyO]

Thanks for the advice AA and Strat much appreciated.

[Thumpa]

Got up to $4.70 and might just hit that $5 today. Tomorrow will be a big day with drill results due out. Definatelty holding on to these in the short term.

Touched $5 today..well done!

[dragonz]

PRR lining up for A BIG START :D

[Footsie]

AA

BBI. what level is a "breakout"?

[STRAT]

Thanks for the advice AA and Strat much appreciated.Wasnt advice :eek:
and you might want to tighten any stops you have decided to use. What goes up in a hurry often comes down in a hurry and its sure going up in a hurry today :D

[ScrappyO]

BBP Trading at 8.1c up 35% today at the moment, you must be very happy Scrappyo :D

Had put a sell in at 7.5c for half before i went to work...Thought i was being greedy at that price. I see it coming back a bit now. But yes very happy with that trade.

[Phaedrus]

BBI is in a long-term decelerating downtrend or, if you prefer, it is in a trading range after a downtrend. This shows up most clearly on the inserted chart. In circumstances like this, trendlines provide unreliable signals because multiple trendlines can be drawn as the price action flattens out and all-too-often they are broken before they are confirmed. Marked here are multiple trendlines, numbered in the order in which they would have been drawn at the time. They suggest 4 possible entry points, 2 of which turned out to be quite misleading. When trends are accelerating or decelerating, multiple sequential trendlines are required to track the action. This is undesirable and in such circumstances more adaptive trend indicators are a much better option - for example, the 56 day moving average as plotted here.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/BBI429.gif

[Phaedrus]

Are you suggesting BBI is still in a Downtrend?... Yes - it is still in a "long-term" (2 year) downtrend. In the "medium" term" (6 months) BBI is trendless. In the "short" term (6 weeks) it is in an Uptrend.


.... or was it a confirmed uptrend on the Break of the 56 day moving average. The break of the moving average was incidental and had nothing at all to do with the confirmation or otherwise of any trend. An uptrend is confirmed when you get a higher high after a higher low and this is totally independent of moving averages or any other indicator.


At what point will it become a confirmed up trend to you?Medium term? When BBI makes a higher High after a higher Low. (When it closes above 14.5 cents)


My concern with the Moving averages is that you calibrated it match Trend 3..... No I didn't - it was calibrated to the August high, right at the start of the chart. Other appropriate moving averages give essentially the same result. Here, for example, is a 70 day Simple moving average so chosen to fit the highs at the start of the chart (at the end of 2007.) This ma was confirmed about 6 times over the next year or so and would have provided a logical entry point for those wishing to trade BBI in the long term. Its crossover point is virtually identical to that derived from the original 56 day EMA.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/BBI429x.gif


It appears to me that both Trend lines and moving averages have their flaws when used to monitor momentum.EVERY indicator and EVERY system has its flaws. I prefer to think of them as characteristics! If you really want to monitor pure momentum, why not use the Momentum indicator? (as shown below)


Possibly the ADX could be a better method of monitoring momentum, or to find trends near exhaustion before apply a higher high rule?Possibly - though I don't think so. Take a look at the DI(14) plot. The only 2 reasonable "Buy" signal crossovers (at the dotted grey lines) would have been vetoed by the ADX being below the minimum acceptable threshold of 20. By the time the ADX had reached 20 it was a bit late and the opportunity had been pretty much lost. I can't see that the ADX would help you find good entry points into BBI - it has not performed well historically with this stock.

The simple old OBV flagged the bottom better than most anything else.

[AMR]

VBA pullback to prior resistance (now support). Forming a new higher low?

[STRAT]

Its quiet in here today :eek:

[dragonz]

Its quiet in here today :eek:

I brought 200000 ksx @ 4 cents today :D Not really going anywhere yet.

Have most of my funds in ext which is also going nowhere :(
will hold for a little while longer to see if it has any more juice left in it.

[STRAT]

I brought 200000 ksx @ 4 cents today :D Not really going anywhere yet.

Have most of my funds in ext which is also going nowhere :(
will hold for a little while longer to see if it has any more juice left in it.Funny old day today. Many Stocks I expected to move at open didnt even trade at open. Was left wondering if my Internet connection had been cut for about 5 minutes

[dragonz]

Funny old day today. Many Stocks I expected to move at open didnt even trade at open. Was left wondering if my Internet connection had been cut for about 5 minutes

Yeah I'm starting to wish that my internet connection had been cut off today.

[dragonz]

Yeah I'm starting to wish that my internet connection had been cut off today.

Actually I'm now glad that I turned on my computer today. Funny how things can turn around so quickly :D

Nice little "hammer" forming on EXT (if it can finish around the $5 mark).

Interest growing in ksx. I brought in anticipation of a big jump tomorrow morning on opening.

[JBmurc]

Sold DIO 58% gain trying to buy ADI 5c IAU 25c brought PSA 24c sold small amount of my STX holding at 19.5c for 70% gain

[dragonz]

Nice show of confidance from EXT former Director.

"Former Extract Resources board member, Steve Sikirich, is believed to have netted around $A607,928 from his purchase of shares in the uranium company in 2008. Sikirich said he did not intend to sell the shares, despite leaving the board in early 2009


Distributed by News Bites. Copyright 2008 LexisNexis Australia. All Rights Reserved"


Have set my exit point at 2% below the highest low (4.60) which will still give a healthy profit. It got within 1 cent yesterday and 3 cents this morning so am really hoping for some positive announcements to push up to my target of $5.50 (resistance).

[Financially dependant]

I have been following PRY for a couple of days, still room to enter.
ASB securities recommended them and chart looked good for 20% gain. Target of $4.80 at resistance.

Primary Health Care.....hot topic atm.....;)

[dragonz]

Dragonz, No Trailing Stop method is Perfect, But Ill Let you in on one of my Trade Secrets, A simple indicator based method I came up with after much Trial and error whist testing Trailing Stops. I don't think you will find this method discussed anywhere else on the web, let me know if you do I will be very interested. I have tried looking.

Simply, Every time the Stochastic (can be Daily, Weekly or Monthly Stochastic) %K Crosses Below %D move your stop up to the Low of that Bar. (Daily, Weekly or Monthly Bars)

This Works great with Swing Trading, and I use a combination of this and another method in my trading, with over ride rules. But this method proves very effective by its self.

Light Blue = Trailing Stops = the horizontal lines, The Vertical Lines show the Stochastic indicator crossover points, Trailing stops move up but never down.

Pink = possible Entry points on the Higher High Following a %K crossing above %D.( haven't shown all the Possible entry points to keep the Chart clutter free, but you get the gist, Its really the Trailing Stops Im referring to in the example, this post isn't about good entry's rather about trailing stops.

High ADX Readings i.e Trend strength improves Success.

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/ext_ax_price_daily_and_slow_stoc-2.png

This Trade Secret is just between you and me though ok. ;)

This Is a Trailing Stop Method Based On the Stochastic Indicator and Support Levels, The Low of Weekly,Monthly candles/Bars Could Be used as Support instead of daily, as can Weekly, Monthly Stochastic Periods within the indicator with them , i.e The Stochastic can be adjusted to Suit all Investment Time Frames and most trading styles .

This Example is using a Daily 5,3,3 Stochastic Setting, Which is the fastest Most Reactive Default Stochastic Settings. Longer Term Investors May choose to use Less Reactive Settings with Higher Timeframes. In other words they are willing to give the Trend More Room to Move, this can keep you in a trend longer but can give back more gains should the trend not resume.

Hmmm interesting. This would of had me exiting at 4.85. Won't tell anyone if you dont :D

[Footsie]

SRL testing res

im in for a possible break over 1.64

[dragonz]

I think your a Bit confused Dragonz, you Don't sell on the Cross of The %K below %D you only Trail your Stop up to the Low of that particular day once the days complete. The Exit would only be Taken i.e the Stop hit, "IF" the stock makes a lower low in relation to the low of the signal day..

Using the Method Currently your Stop would be sitting just below the Low of the 30th i.e Low = $4.61 so your stop could be a fraction below that, say $4.58 for example.

Sorry if I haven't explained it very well.

No you explained it well. I see what you mean. :D

Might back test it and compare it to my 2% below highest low stop-loss strategy.

Reading everything I can get my hands on re "swing trading". Really interesting stuff.

[dragonz]

Hes a base idea for true swing trading.

Swing Trading Method

This is a method described by Oliver L Verez in his book, “TOOLS AND TACTICS FOR THE MASTER DAY TRADER”.

Entry Rules
1. Price made 3 or more consecutive lower highs
2. Price made 3 or more consecutive lower lows
3. Price made 3 or more consecutive black candle (closing price is less than opening price)
4. When conditions (1) to (3) are met, enter a long position at the high of the previous bar.

Im chewing my way through
Moving Averages, Candlestick Charts, Stock Chart Volume , Support - Resistance, Relative Strength, Traders Action Zone, Trading Pullbacks, entries and Exits, Elliott Wave, Market Timing, Chart Patterns.

Once I get a very solid understanding of the above I will formulate a trading strategy.

Then its on to Candlestick Patterns, How to Trade Gaps, How to Short Stocks, Fibonacci Retracements etc etc etc

[STRAT]

Im chewing my way through
Moving Averages, Candlestick Charts, Stock Chart Volume , Support - Resistance, Relative Strength, Traders Action Zone, Trading Pullbacks, entries and Exits, Elliott Wave, Market Timing, Chart Patterns.

Once I get a very solid understanding of the above I will formulate a trading strategy.

Then its on to Candlestick Patterns, How to Trade Gaps, How to Short Stocks, Fibonacci Retracements etc etc etcThat will keep you home at night for a while Dragonz :D

Im working on getting to a point where all I need are candles and volume. Could take a while though :o

[dragonz]

That will keep you home at night for a while Dragonz :D

Im working on getting to a point where all I need are candles and volume. Could take a while though :o

Hey I think your charts are very good. Paticulary liked the "sinking ship with propellor causing small wave theory" . Perhaps we could call it "Stats sinking ship causing small wave theory" or "Stats Theory" for short.:D

[STRAT]

Hey I think your charts are very good. Paticulary liked the "sinking ship with propellor causing small wave theory" . Perhaps we could call it "Stats sinking ship causing small wave theory" or "Stats Theory" for short.:DI fisherman I know suggested calling it the Stratocaster :D

[dragonz]

AA Do you have a scanner for NZX stocks. I'm looking for a list of stocks on the NZX that are over the 200ma. The Aus/NZ exchange rate is looking too good to leave all my funds in Aussie at the moment.

[Junior80]

Dragonz, No Trailing Stop method is Perfect, But Ill Let you in on one of my Trade Secrets, A simple indicator based method I came up with after much Trial and error whist testing Trailing Stops. I don't think you will find this method discussed anywhere else on the web, let me know if you do I will be very interested. I have tried looking.

Simply, Every time the Stochastic (can be Daily, Weekly or Monthly Stochastic) %K Crosses Below %D move your stop up to the Low of that Bar. (Daily, Weekly or Monthly Bars)

This Works great with Swing Trading, and I use a combination of this and another method in my trading, with over ride rules. But this method proves very effective by its self.

Light Blue = Trailing Stops = the horizontal lines, The Vertical Lines show the Stochastic indicator crossover points, Trailing stops move up but never down. The Exit Is taken when the Price breaks below the Light Blue line, i.e hits the stop.

Pink = possible Entry points on the Higher High Following a %K crossing above %D.( haven't shown all the Possible entry points to keep the Chart clutter free, but you get the gist, Its really the Trailing Stops Im referring to in the example, this post isn't about good entry's rather about trailing stops.

High ADX Readings i.e Higher Trend strength improves Success.

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/ext_ax_price_daily_and_slow_stoc-2.png

This Trade Secret is just between you and me ok Dragonz. ;)

This Is a Trailing Stop Method Based On the Stochastic Indicator and Support Levels, The Low of Weekly,Monthly candles/Bars Could Be used as Support instead of daily, as can Weekly, Monthly Stochastic Periods within the indicator with them , i.e The Stochastic can be adjusted to Suit all Investment Time Frames and most trading styles .

This Example is using a Daily 5,3,3 Stochastic Setting, Which is the fastest Most Reactive Default Stochastic Settings. Longer Term Investors May choose to use Less Reactive Settings with Higher Timeframes. In other words they are willing to give the Trend More Room to Move, this can keep you in a trend longer but can give back more gains should the trend not resume.


Hi AA, fantastic to see you spending so much of your time to share your knowledge. I for one look at your posts very closely as I believe I have a lot to learn from you and your TA skills.

I like your technique that you state above, but I have one question. What happens if when you put your trail stop loss on the 7th April at about $4.97, and the next day, it opened with a gap and opened below your trail stop? Will you still sell when market opens?

Again, I would like to thank you all for your posts, I find them very helpful, eventhough it takes me a long time before I understand it!!

[Junior80]

Hes a base idea for true swing trading.

Swing Trading Method

This is a method described by Oliver L Verez in his book, “TOOLS AND TACTICS FOR THE MASTER DAY TRADER”.

Entry Rules
1. Price made 3 or more consecutive lower highs
2. Price made 3 or more consecutive lower lows
3. Price made 3 or more consecutive black candle (closing price is less than opening price)
4. When conditions (1) to (3) are met, enter a long position at the high of the previous bar.

You Could add to the Idea with a filter such as Williams%R or Stochastic have been oversold for 3 days.

another rule could be Price has fallen by 20% within the last 8 days, (this gives you a good swing depth/distance up to resistance)

You can add further to this by using your knowledge of contracting price ranges and Volatility filters, adding rules like the range of each day has been contracting for the last 3 days and volume has been falling for the last three days.

Following on from the base rules you could add further rules such as a inside day on the last trading day or a Doji, or a hammer, Or a Bullish engulfing pattern, to strengthen the likely hood of reversal, entering the next day on a higher high.

To Swing Trade First you need a short term down trend, then you enter at the "very first" sign of reversal i.e a higher high in relation to the previous day.

Steeper the Down Trend the More unsustainable it will be and the more Probability it will lead to a reversal with fewer false signals.

Hope this gives you some entry ideas to play with.

Below is an example of a Inside Day Swing Trade.

3 Lower Highs
3 Lower Lows
4 Days Closing Lower

5th Day is a Inside Day, Didn't Make a Higher High, Didn't Make A Lower Low, It sits inside the Previous Bar.

This Is the Pause Between the Trend Change, A Pause In Momentum.

This is Where Swing Traders Get Interested.

Blue Line is The Entry on A Break above the High of the Inside Day.

Following the Buy Entry the Bars Make Higher Highs and Higher Lows = UpTREND, Until the Doji a Candle of Indecision, A Exit might be Taken On the Break below the Low of The DOJI, (the last + shaped candle)

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/bwp_ax_price_daily23oct08_to_05nov0.png

The Inside Day could be replaced with a Doji, or a hammer, Or a Bullish engulfing pattern or any other reversal Candle/Bar


Hi AA, often it is next to impossible to find a stock that follows rule 1,2 and 3. Does it mean you don't enter and wait for when it follows the 3 rules? Also I see in your example, I thought the entry point would be slightly above the high of the 4th day, so if you see an inside day, that means you will not enter yet would you? Thanks in advance..hope you can understand my question.

[dragonz]

Sorry Dragonz I tried to find you one with no success yet.

This is as good as I can find for the moment.

http://findata.co.nz/Markets/Analysis.aspx

Thanks AA. This is a good site. PPP looks like a it could be a posibility on 1st pullback. Will build a watchlist and see if its worth bringing some cash back into $NZ.

[dragonz]

Im testing out the Price Alerts feature at the site, could come in handy.

I only go long on the ASX as there seems to be enough opportunities but it could mean that its worth bringing more of my "day trading" capital back into $NZ if I could double possible trades by looking at both short and long positions.

Is there a NZ broker that has a "shorting Account?"

[AMR]

I only go long on the ASX as there seems to be enough opportunities but it could mean that its worth bringing more of my "day trading" capital back into $NZ if I could double possible trades by looking at both short and long positions.

Is there a NZ broker that has a "shorting Account?"

CMC Markets, although they add to the spread so their "low commission" isn't what it seems. Shorting seems quite difficult now with the markets so low and forming bases...

[dragonz]

CMC Markets, although they add to the spread so their "low commission" isn't what it seems. Shorting seems quite difficult now with the markets so low and forming bases...

Thanks AMR. I've identified between 4-6 possible long swing trades on the NZX in the near future. I will have a look for possible short swing trade opportunities. If I have say 10 possible then it might be worth taking advantage of the currant exchange rate and trade the NZX until the $NZ rises again.

[AMR]

Im testing out the Price Alerts feature at the site, could come in handy.

Whatever you do, use a new email address or IM account to accept those alerts! Sometimes they can overdo things.

[The Big Ease]

AA,

could you do one of your lovely charts on ETC please? It looks like continuing its strong run...

The one with the 3 bands. TIA :)

[The Big Ease]

cheers AA.

Looks good, though we can probably expect a slight retrace in the absence of expected good news. Great to see it bounce sharply on big volume after its recent pull-back. I am happy to continue holding this company in the expectation of meeting their forecast NPAT, so will not be looking for an exit any time soon. Have a great buffer since entering at 28 cents.

Thanks again.

[ollie]

Hi dragonz,

whats your take on the nz$ against the au$ at present, short term 2-3 months, med term 9-12 months ??

yeah, i know, big ask

cheers

[dragonz]

Hi dragonz,

whats your take on the nz$ against the au$ at present, short term 2-3 months, med term 9-12 months ??

yeah, i know, big ask

cheers

Hi Ollie
It certainly looks a bit oversold doesn’t it? From a historical perspective when the $NZ has fallen to this level it has rebounded strongly. Aug last year and March saw the $NZ dollar rebounding to the mid 80 – 90’s. Both the Australian and NZ currencies have suffered of late but I believe NZ more so due to the swine epidemic. From what I’ve read however there hasn’t been a sell off as such but more that there are no buyers.
My unqualified opinion is that in the short term if the flu epidemic gets worse, the negative publicity will see a further weakening on the $NZ. If this turns out to be a “storm in a tea-cup” then this could equate to a rapid rebound.
So my short answer as a lay-man is - continuation of weakening of $NZ against $Aus possible in next couple of days/weeks. A strengthening of the $NZ against $Aus in the next 2-3 Months is possible. $NZ in the mid 80’s – 90cents $Aus in the next 9-12 months probable

[dragonz]

Nice show of confidance from EXT former Director.

"Former Extract Resources board member, Steve Sikirich, is believed to have netted around $A607,928 from his purchase of shares in the uranium company in 2008. Sikirich said he did not intend to sell the shares, despite leaving the board in early 2009


Distributed by News Bites. Copyright 2008 LexisNexis Australia. All Rights Reserved"


Have set my exit point at 2% below the highest low (4.60) which will still give a healthy profit. It got within 1 cent yesterday and 3 cents this morning so am really hoping for some positive announcements to push up to my target of $5.50 (resistance).

That was a heavy ceiling on EXT and am a bit suprised that it broke through today. Signal for swing traders to jump on now which should see a very fast surge to resistance $5.50

[dragonz]

I brought 200000 ksx @ 4 cents today :D Not really going anywhere yet.

Have most of my funds in ext which is also going nowhere :(
will hold for a little while longer to see if it has any more juice left in it.

KSX up over 5 cents today . I thought the jump might come friday but today is good enough for me. Had planned to sell on previous resistance of 5 cents but I might see what happens tomorrow. I imagine that it may come up on a few scans tonight. :D Can afford to buy a beer now. :D

[Junior80]

Hi AA,

Wondering if you can give me a hand and have a look at the chart for KZL and have a look at the enter point and exit points and anything you can think of. Thanks in advance.

Junior80
p/s how do u attach the file onto the post???

[Junior80]

Hi aa,

I am a short-term trader but can hold for up to 6 months if I have to. Ideally, I like to be in and out within 2-3 weeks.

Yes aa, I have looked through it. I have been reading up on doji, shooting star, hang man etc etc. Found your post very useful.

Junior80

[Junior80]

Thanks aa. I will need some time to digest what you have posted. I think I was getting confused what a swing trader is but I think now I understand.

[Thumpa]

AEU - has hit its upper resistance again at 33c. Hopefully it can break through and sustain the uptrend.


Nice rise today. Don't ya hate those $700 trades after the close that knock 10% off ? . AEU is a leaky stock. No news today but must be something coming I feel

http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u150/soundzgoodgood/AEU3.png

[dragonz]

AA or others . Does anyone use the stock screening feature on incredible charts to identify possible swing trades. I think the features are very limited.

I have found the following set up, for swing trades but incredicharts doest have some of these filters.

daily ema(60 daily volume)> 150000
daily high < yesterdays high
Yesterdays high < 2 days ago daily high
daily close> daily sma(10 daily close)
daily close> daily sma(200 daily close)
weekly sma(10 weekly close> weelkly ema(30 weekly close)
adx line(10) > 20
close>5

Any other free or reasonably cheap screening software online. I spend at least 8 hours a week looking for possible trades so a good filter set up would be great.

[Footsie]

had a great day in GDN...

admittedly my second attempt tho...

got stopped earlier in the week. Funny when a trade has burnt you once its hard to buy back in full steam the next day.

[dragonz]

had a great day in GDN...

admittedly my second attempt tho...

got stopped earlier in the week. Funny when a trade has burnt you once its hard to buy back in full steam the next day.

Yep sometimes ends up as your best trades though.

Check out ENV, somebody went hunting ex div. Its always worth keeping a eye on those stocks that go ex div for any stoploss action.

Had a few OK scalp trades but closed all my positions today.

[JBmurc]

Sold DIO 58% gain trying to buy ADI 5c IAU 25c brought PSA 24c sold small amount of my STX holding at 19.5c for 70% gain

just sold PSA took a 45% profit
both ADI & IAU up 6% but could have easy sold out at 12% gain holding both for larger gains

[dragonz]

I brought into IBA this morning, not just for the fundamentals but because I have successfully traded this in the past and there is usually NO nasty suprises. Could be a good swing trade but I still think that elusive mega contract is just around the corner. Hopefully :D

[croesus]

Been buying MHI lately... more today......cheers Croesus

[dragonz]

Been buying MHI lately... more today......cheers Croesus

Is that Merchant House International or the NZX (Michael Hill)?

[croesus]

MHI NZ.... my fault.... forgot I was on the Aussie page

[JBmurc]

Brought some OEX on the massive 29% selloff today at the close of 17c hoping to make nice short term gain on a bounce

[Corporate]

Brought some OEX on the massive 29% selloff today at the close of 17c hoping to make nice short term gain on a bounce

JB - why such a sell off?

[JBmurc]

JB - why such a sell off?

-checkout the OEX thread -selloff over a duster looks abit oversold to me 19c-20c rebound??

[dragonz]

Gone with BTA today for a possible swing trade.

[JBmurc]

Sold my OEX postion for a 6% profit about $600 for the 30mins work an overnite hold
an sold ADI paid 5c sold 5.9c made about 13% or $850 for a 7 day hold

[JBmurc]

Just brought CFE 30.5c has just brought a nice copper asset nice cash balance

[Dr_Who]

Just brought CFE 30.5c has just brought a nice copper asset nice cash balance

Give me more detail! ;)

[ScrappyO]

Thanks Phaedus, I understand accelerating and decelerating trends, hence trend lines only indicate a change in momentum, Im still a bit confused, are you suggesting BBI is still in a Downtrend? or was it a confirmed up trend on the Break of the 56 day moving average. At what point will it become a confirmed up trend to you?. Is it simply best then to rely on a higher high i.e a break of resistance as a entry after a low has been put in (as sometimes the higher low doesn't occur until after the higher high). There are many other ways to monitor momentum, and if downwards momentum looks like its coming to a crawl, maybe the first higher high might be the best bet?

My concern with the Moving averages is that you calibrated it match Trend 3, But possibly would have caused a whipsaw and false signal had it been calibrated to Trend 1 and Trend 2 prior as the time period would be shorter and more reactive. As we know the Down Trend continued. So it appears to me that both Trend lines or moving averages have there flaws when used to monitor momentum for entry signals, possibly a Support and Resistance based Method of trading would be the way to go in low momentum environments following a prior strong trend .

Possibly the ADX could be a better method of monitoring momentum, or to find trends near exhaustion before apply a higher high rule along side increasing volume?

Just re:read, your post again, sorry read it in too much of a hurry before,(trying to place orders at the same time)
So BBI needs to break above 15c to break out of its trading range, and that will confirm the uptrend for you. I see it now, when looking at the BIGG picture, rather than the smaller picture, I can see it now, The Low, the Higher Low, just need a Higher High now on the break of 15c.

Sometimes you just have to step away from the screen a bit to see the big picture

I consider the March Peak as the High and I think you consider the January Peak as a more significant peak to break above to break out of the range?

Arithmetic-scale charts suggest the January peak to me, but logarithmic scale charts the March Peak, in this case Arithmetic-scale charts
tend to look at the bigger picture more, and shows the Trading range flatter looking. Im more likely to trade on the logarithmic scale chart which exaggerates extremes more in volatile stocks making minor highs look more significant.

So the shorter term Traders like myself will trade this up to 15c, Resistance, Where the Long term investors and the short term traders will buy it up after that point

Thanks for your post, you have given me lots to think about, its all food for thought.

Broke the 15c barrier.
Could you post an update chart AA or Phaedrus
Sold the rest of my BBP for BBI at 12.5c
Thanks

[Phaedrus]

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/BBI59L.gif

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/BBI59s.gif

[ScrappyO]

Much appreciated..Thanks for the update Phaedrus.

Scrappyo

[JBmurc]

Just brought CFE 30.5c has just brought a nice copper asset nice cash balance

CFE making a early 37c high tody back down atm still chart looks good with the breakout

[Ponda]

NAD.ASX The buy depth is huge. It looks like someone is trying to buy the company via the stock exchange or is an error in their entry for a buy. If its an error I'd hate to end up owning them.
Shows you have to be carefull when you place your orders.

[dragonz]

NAD.ASX The buy depth is huge. It looks like someone is trying to buy the company via the stock exchange or is an error in their entry for a buy. If its an error I'd hate to end up owning them.
Shows you have to be carefull when you place your orders.

Its a On Market Takeover Bid by Legend International Holdings Inc.

[Ponda]

Thanks Dragonz
Makes sense now.
When you guys say DYOR I need to do a lot more than what I currently do, but it's the help you more experianced guys give us helps us.

Cheers

[Ponda]

Just curious, but why wouldn't there by lots of buyers wanting to buy at the sellers price of 1.3. As you have said AA you'd be crazy to sell at that price, so doesn't that say that you'd be crazy not to buy at 1.3

[dragonz]

Thanks Dragonz
Makes sense now.
When you guys say DYOR I need to do a lot more than what I currently do, but it's the help you more experianced guys give us helps us.

Cheers

No worries , do you use a full service broker or a on-line broker?

[Ponda]

I use an on-line broker.
I need to remember to look at the announcement page. Had I done that in this case I would have found out the reason

[Thumpa]

Breakout looks confirmed . Currently 65.5


MEL may be a candidate for you Swingers out there. :p
Watch closely for a possible bounce around 45 cent trend line.
Nice ascending triangle formation with 60 cents Resistance target.

DYOR

http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u150/soundzgoodgood/MEL.png

[dragonz]

Breakout looks confirmed . Currently 65.5

Well spotted Thumpa. I missed out on that one but will pay more attention next time:D
I'm still waiting for an up-swing on ISF:eek:

[dragonz]

If you have the funds to take out the 1st few lines of MOY this is setting up to be a very good scalp trade. Need a few more traders on board to push it pass the 3.8 cent level.

[Junior80]

Hi a-a, or anyone who can answer this,

With all momentum indicators, I see that an arbitary value of 70-30 or 80-20 is used. Which is the "norm"? I understand if set at 80-20, more likely to miss the boat but what do you guys use? What do you reccommend?

Thank you all in advance.

Junior80

[Phaedrus]

J80, as you quite rightly say, these are arbitrary levels. They, (and the oscillator time period) are not carved in stone and it is quite acceptable to vary them. Bierovic states that an oscillator should be at "Overbought" or "OverSold" levels about 10% of the time. This can be accomplished by varying the oscillator period and/or by altering the threshold levels chosen.

OB and OS levels do not have to be symmetrical - you could, for example, use 70/20 or 80/30 if you wanted to - this is quite often done to compensate for the stock being in an uptrend or downtrend. When using long time periods, I generally don't use OB/OS levels at all, preferring to use a midpoint crossover as the signal line.

The charting package you use will have default values for all oscillator parameters and you could consider these to be the "norm". Use these default values to start with and feel free to vary them should the indicator prove to be too sensitive or too insensitive for your needs.

[Financially dependant]

I have been following PRY for a couple of days, still room to enter.
ASB securities recommended them and chart looked good for 20% gain. Target of $4.80 at resistance.

Primary Health Care.....hot topic atm.....;)

First target hit a few days ago, second target of $5 hit today for second time...still in uptrend but looking for the exit...:)

Still below valuation and waiting for the break in trend.

This is a paper trade..entered at $4.10 and just seeing how far it will go..

[JBmurc]

sold rest me ROC today for a nice profit av 64c
brought TRY yesterday at 1.36c an PGW 1.36c nzx (wish I just brought TRY now)
today CTO 18.5c 10mill oz of JORC Gold takeover target?
got more PEN at 3.7c
also looking to buy a small parcel of CCU love me Silver:)

[dragonz]

I'm looking at scalping a few cents of IAU today. In at 31 cents. Hopfully will make up for my losses on ISF. :D

[dragonz]

Interesting Dragonz, Thanks for sharing,
Do you exit one day later always or at the top of your trend channel?

In HZN you exited before price reached the Top of the Trend channel.

Hi AA

Sorry the charts not very clear. I exited at 18.5. There share contined to 19 cents before retreating back to 17 cents

Also I use the channel lines to set my buy and sell points.

[dragonz]

Oh AA

I forgot to mention that if you do extend your trading range, to say a 3 month chart (or whatever) dont forget to change your williams%R to 9 days or whatever as well.

[The Big Ease]

any of you guys onto ETC.
Increasing volume, spiking shareprice.

[dragonz]

any of you guys onto ETC.
Increasing volume, spiking shareprice.

Yep looks good. This came up on my watchlist about 4 weeks ago when the shareprice fell back into the "TAZ" zone.

TAZ zone = Ist pullback after breakout. swing trading principles apply. Example 1st higher low and higher high. I wish I had the funds at the time.
I think the fundamentals looked pretty good to.

Congrads on your purchase Big Ease. :D

[catbert]

Topped up on HFA at 15c Today,
Turn should occur now after the test of support.

Hi AA, I am a very poor short-term trader, but am trying to learn, and this thread and your posts have been invaluable. So thanks for that!

I am trying to understand your thinking re HFA. If I had bought this in the last few days, I would have set my stop just below the recent support level of 16c. So today's action would have seen me selling at a loss, probably around 15.5c, rather than buying more. Could you explain in more detail where you think support is for this stock, and/or why you took the action you did?

Thanks and regards, catbert :)

[Junior80]

Hi aa,

Thank you for your explanation. I was looking at this stock and slow stochastic indicator that you taught me showed that %K was crossing %D during the day but by the end of the day, it has changed and %K has NOT cross %D. Doesn't that mean it's not time to get into the stock just yet?

In saying that, I see there is a large increase in volume and good to see that the last time this happened, it went for a little run.

Again, your comments are greatly appreciated.

Junior80

[Junior80]

Hi aa,

Thank you for your reply. I always find it interesting to read your posts. I also appreciated your honesty and with the large seller on Friday at close auction, I hope it does not mean that the sellers are not done yet.

The other stock that I think has just turned in the slow stochastic indicators is ABY. If you don't mind aa, tell me what u think about it.

Thanks.




Junior80 and Catbert,

I think I should also mention my analysis of HFA was good but my timing at 15c and 16c was poor, (I jumped the gun with my purchase and as an experienced trader I should know better)

Even if the trade comes good my timing will still be poor in my mind, the reason being that I acted on my analysis without waiting for price to confirm it. we needed to see a clear reversal had taken place before buying whether that be using Stochastic,%R or simply price, the signal has to be fast for swing trading. Delays in entry are costly as are delays in exits.

At the time of my purchase Stochastic as you mentioned was showing positive signs, however I shouldn't have acted on intra-day movements alone.

In my opinion my purchase should have been pre set to enter when price made a new high relative to the previous day, (breaking its resistance), With My buy stops trailing down the highs until a higher high occurs.

This Higher High (relative to the day prior) hasn't occurred, so I shouldn't be in this trade yet.

I believe this foolish mistake (of jumping the gun) may cost me in this trade if the 15c support fails.

HFA isn't my usual swing setup, but if 15c holds it should still be a profitable Trade.

On Monday it will go one way or another, if 14.5c - 15c folds it will find support at a lower level then swing higher, providing another entry signal, the depth of the swing would then be deeper providing a trade with even more profit potential.

If the first setup entry fails in a stock its often a good idea to take a second entry lower down as the following swing will be better and more probable as the stock will be oversold even further. The reaction in price is relative to the prior action.

Just wanted to note my poor trade execution for the record.

The Current Support Zone being 14.5c(Lows)-15c(Close)(Re: Weekly Chart) if that fails then support may be found at 12.5c the low of the 27th April, there was a large seller in HFA on Friday I fear they may not have finished dumping. Monday will be interesting.

AA

[catbert]

Yes, thanks AA for your in-depth and objective (despite being in the trade yourself) analysis - invaluable and much appreciated!

[Junior80]

Thanks very much AA. Good to see the resistance of 0.145 cps holding for HFA. I got in ABY on Friday at an average of 55c. Hoping to ride the wave up. First time I have used the technique that you taught me. In fact, I went and back-test (last 6 months) your technique to a few other stocks that I do follow. All of them came back +ve, but I also compared it to when I hold the stocks for the same period of time, using the stochastics would've been slightly ahead of buying it 6 months ago and selling it on last Friday.


J80,

Ive only had a very quick glance at ABY I'm very pushed for time at the moment, but at a Quick Glance it looks Good and I probably would have entered on the 28th.(Thursday)

Remember to always use the "Break above the Previous days high" rule following a signal from S Stochastic, this filters out most of the false signals. Never Enter a Stock on the Signal Alone without Confirmation.

You will see 3 of the S Stochastic signals crossing above 30 would not have been acted on due to the Break above rule, This kept you out of the down trend due to the signals produced on the 27th of Jan and the 4th of Feb as well as the 20th of May.

http://i650.photobucket.com/albums/uu224/arranging/aby_ax24dec08_to_05jun09.png

I slaped up the chart pretty quick and Ive just Noticed I missed one of the vertical lines highlighting a Stochastic Cross on the 23th of march, but you get the gist. The other 3 on the 27th of Jan and the 4th of Feb as well as the 20th of May were left out on purpose because of the Filter - Break above rule.

Blue Lines are Possible Entry Points, the bottom two are based on a break of resistance, The Top two Entered into based on Stochastic and Broken previous days resistance (Break above Previous days high) and well as the Prior ST Trend Line Break.

Also Note the Increasing Volume/Market Participation as the Stock moves into its uptrend.

AA

[STRAT]

ATI on the move again today

[Thumpa]

Brought some CXY @11 cents.
Will see where it goes.:cool:

[Crypto Crude]

interesting thread...

hey Thumpa,
ive bought WCUO over the last few trading days...
:cool:
.^sc

[Thumpa]

Still holding a few WCU after selling half at 39c the other day.
Happy to hold and watch it all un-fold one way or another. The GDN connection is one of the few things putting me off , but may be another pump leading to first dig. :rolleyes:

[Junior80]

First time trying to attach a graph. Let's hope you all can see it.

http://i696.photobucket.com/albums/vv327/yknot80/aby_ax_price_daily_and_slow_stochas.png

:)

[The Big Ease]

First time trying to attach a graph. Let's hope you all can see it.

http://i696.photobucket.com/albums/vv327/yknot80/aby_ax_price_daily_and_slow_stochas.png

:)

Wow. What a flyer!

[Junior80]

Wow. What a flyer!

Yes Big Ease. Been following this stock quite closely and with confirmation that it was way oversold in the last week or so, I jumped in at around 55c. Holding out for more, but might grab some profits today or tomorrow. Will see how things go.