CST - Cellestis Limited

[macduffy]

Thought it was about time I found out if anyone else has an interest in this biotech stock.
CST has been listed for several years and is a spin-off from Aussie's CSIRO, the folk who gave us the world-leading blood plasma company CSL.
They are a single focus company in that they have developed and patented the world's leading blood test ( "Quantiferon" ) for detecting tuberculosis, as an alternative to the Mantoux skin test which has been the "standard" for decades. Quantiferon has developed through various forms, progressively improving the accuracy and "usability" of the test. It has now reached the point where acceptance is growing and although it has only a small percentage of the market still, sales have virtually doubled in each of the last several half year periods.
The company recently posted its first annual profit ( although the previous six months was profitable ) and paid a maiden dividend. It has cash in the bank and this should steadily accumulate. Because it is starting from a loss base, historical P/E and dividend yield are a bit meaningless ( astronomically high and miniscule, respectively!)

The SP today is up 24c (10%) when I last looked. It seems that the story is starting to be heard!

All the above IMO of course but I'd be interested in other views.

;)

[Skol]

I've had it for a while, got interested when TB hit the news and it's a hold for me. I bought it to diversify a bit and haven't been disappointed (yet). TB isn't going away and biotechs have done better as a group than most since things started going pear shaped.

[macduffy]

I'm not claiming any credit for this but CST SP is up another 4.7% today in an otherwise soggy Australian market.

;)

[Skol]

I'm not claiming any credit for this but CST SP is up another 4.7% today in an otherwise soggy Australian market.

;)

Nearly doubled since february, one of the few bright spots in the last few months.

[macduffy]

CST up another 7% today on news that their TB diagnostic product, Quantiferon Gold In-tube has been approved for use by the Japanese health authorities.
This is particularly good news given that the widespread use of BCG in Japan means that the conventional skin test results in too many false positive results to be effective.

:cool:

[macduffy]

Correction.

Make that +11%!

:cool:

[macduffy]

And up another 24c today to $2-94.

Can't believe that only Skol and me are interested in this stock!


:cool:

[sharer]

[QUOTE=macduffy;251345]And up another 24c today to $2-94.

Can't believe that only Skol and me are interested in this stock!


Thanks for bringing CST to notice Macduffy.
As it happens just recently i read a very good article on recent scientific advances with TB studies, including the development of tests able to show exposure to virulent TBbug in the presence of antibodies from previous BCG vaccination etc. Well written, easy to read, and important as this ancient disease flares up yet again. Article is by C.E.Barry & M.S.Cheung in the March 2009 issue of Scientific American pp 56 - 63.
Maybe more useful info @ www.SciAm.com and www.who.int/tb/en .

Best of luck.

[shasta]

And up another 24c today to $2-94.

Can't believe that only Skol and me are interested in this stock!


:cool:

Meantime SIP goes nowhere fast...:rolleyes:

I should pay more attention!

[macduffy]

Thanks, sharer.

I'm not a medico so only really understand the investment merits of CST but think I can appreciate the strong position the company holds in its field and why it is steadily gaining share of TB diagnostic business.
Only 96m shares on issue and they seem to be tightly held.

Hit a new 52 week high today at $3-05 and closed at $3-00.Informative articles and reports on the company's website for the scientific/medically inclined.

:cool:

[Munster]

MacD. New to the forum but have a bit of exp with trading. Took your advice and bought CST at 250. I see this as a buy and hold. What is your get out level on this one. How long do you tend to hold for?
Thanks for the tip by the way. Great advice.

[macduffy]

MacD. New to the forum but have a bit of exp with trading. Took your advice and bought CST at 250. I see this as a buy and hold. What is your get out level on this one. How long do you tend to hold for?
Thanks for the tip by the way. Great advice.

Hi Munster.

No, I don't give advice - not allowed - it's all discussion.

I don't think CST is a stock to trade. It's pretty tightly held, relatively small capital and usually thinly traded.
I'm treating it as a portfolio hold until I see reason to sell it.

:cool:

[Munster]

Understood. Just wondered what your position was. Is see its off again this morning 310.

[macduffy]

Understood. Just wondered what your position was. Is see its off again this morning 310.

I should have qualified my remarks by saying I don't regard it as a stock for me to trade.
Have to admit that I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a correction for a while. Fundamentals are getting pretty rich, even for a stock with as much going for it as CST.

[Skol]

This one's proving a resilient share for weathering the storm, steady increase in SP since the beginning of Feb, now $3.11

[macduffy]

Yes, CST is just about the only stock I'm aware of which is confidently anticipating increased sales ( probably doubled) and profits this financial year.
The story is getting around now and the SP risks getting a bit ahead of itself for a while.
I'm holding happily.

;)

[macduffy]

CST get a favourable reference in this paper delivered to the World TB Day 2009 conference by Contra Costa Health Services. Contra Costa County is a Californian municipality.

"In-vitro interferon-& release assays (IGRAs)




IGRAs are blood tests for TB infection. They measure interferon-0 produced in response to the incubation of the


blood with antigens derived from a region of the genome of Mycobacterium tuberculosis that is not present in most nontuberculous


mycobacteria (NTM), including the BCG strain of M. bovis. A positive IGRA is therefore more specific for TB


infection than a positive TST.


There are now two IGRAs approved by the FDA: QuantiFERON Gold In Tube (QFT), and T-SPOT TB, a new


elispot assay. Our Public Health Lab uses the QFT, which is available for selected patients at CCRMC and Clinics.


We recommend that persons who have had a BCG vaccination, including virtually everyone born outside the US, receive an IGRA test, if available, rather than a TST. The CDC plans to issue revised guidelines for the use of IGRA tests in the near

future."

QFT is the CST product.
Sorry about my amateurish attempts at copy and paste!

[macduffy]

Did anyone else get on this?

It hit $3-55 today.

;)

[Skol]

Did anyone else get on this?

It hit $3-55 today.

;)

Noticed that but no news I'm aware of. Still hold them.

[macduffy]

Noticed that but no news I'm aware of. Still hold them.

No, no news yet.

Anticipation of a bumper result in the next few weeks!

;)

[Skol]

Maybe the insiders getting in before the news.

[macduffy]

Maybe the insiders getting in before the news.

It was always going to be a great result and so it proved.

Revenue up 83%

An impressive Gross Margin of 62%! - and I thought PBP was looking good at 50%!

NPAT up 390%

SP traded down 15c at $3-85. A case of buying the rumour and selling the fact.

Disc: Holding CST.

:cool:

[floyd]

dont know if anyone here holds cst but in response to the takeover there has been a shareholder revolt of sorts and i direct you to the following blog

http://www.forrestthinks.blogspot.com/

[macduffy]

Yes, floyd, I'm still holding CST and share the disappointment over what seems like a cheap takeover via a scheme of arrangement. But I'm not entirely convinced about the case "against" yet. Besides, it's a long time to maintain the rage that's going on just now and if, as we're lead to believe, the numbers committed against will defeat the scheme as it stands I'll reserve my position meanwhile.

[Lizard]

Yes, I've also watched with interest (don't hold). I thought the numbers were disappointing, but am of the belief that there is no point forcing directors down a path they don't want to go. Best take money and move on. It's the sharemarket after all - where the opportunity of a lifetime comes around about every 2 weeks...

It does demonstrate the interesting aspect of investing in developing companies - i.e. that it is possible for a company become very successful without EVER providing a good return to shareholders.

[mark100]

It does demonstrate the interesting aspect of investing in developing companies - i.e. that it is possible for a company become very successful without EVER providing a good return to shareholders.

Liz, CST listed 10 years ago with an issue price of 20c. At $3.50 today that's a 33% pa return. Obviously a lot of that return was weighted to the earlier period of those ten years but in my view CST became very overpriced soon after it listed which isn't the fault of management. To increase the size of the business by 17x in 10 years is a pretty good effort!

[Lizard]

Liz, CST listed 10 years ago with an issue price of 20c. At $3.50 today that's a 33% pa return. Obviously a lot of that return was weighted to the earlier period of those ten years but in my view CST became very overpriced soon after it listed which isn't the fault of management. To increase the size of the business by 17x in 10 years is a pretty good effort!

Hi Mark,
Happy to be corrected. Yes, I didn't realise they had listed at only 20cps! Ever since I started following in 2005, they have floated around $3 per share, barring a period in the GFC when they were cheap (though still not as cheap as other opportunities).

[macduffy]

I don't think anyone else is holding, but FWIW, shareholder agitation has succeeded in getting Qiagen's offer raised to $3.80.

Looks to be all over at that price with some of the bigger holdouts deciding to take the money.

Now to look for another promising pharma stock. Any ideas out there?

[Lizard]

Biotech seems to be getting popular again. ACR is on another surge today - with many predicting that a takeover by Eli Lilly has to be a case of When not If. Though when the market thinks something is that likely, I get nervous!

Not sure if you read this one today, but it has a few ideas:
http://www.theage.com.au/money/investing/science-is-golden-20110709-1h7n5.html

[Lizard]

I hold CBZ and PAB. ACR looks good too, do you want to start a new thread Liz?

Hi KW, Ratkin has been doing a pretty good job with ACR for a while now. Thread is here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5835-Acrux-(acr)-A-very-healthy-bio-tech-stock&p=345731)

I'm afraid I'm rather late to the party on this one!

[macduffy]

Well, that looks like the end of the line for CST with shareholders voting overwhelmingly for the Quiagen takeover at $3.80.

A nice but not spectacular profit which in today's market can't altogether be a bad thing!