Anyone looking at Chemgenx? (CXS)

[jdg]

i was very tempted to push the buy button on this one today. the only reason i've hesitated is the lack of a production/marketing partner.

with a drug currently being put before the FDA, CXS is within distance of the finishing line yet, seemingly, nobody has wanted to ride with them. this could mean they are unattractive, or it could well be that they are simply driving a very hard bargain.

the drug (used to fight a rare form of leukaemia) looks remarkably effective, and a medical journal has recently highlighted its potential. more data is due shortly. if that's positive, it could herald the point by which the company is pounced upon. if so, there is a big wad of cash to be made on this one in the short term. ABN, Wilsons, and Bioshares each have it as a 'buy'.

has anybody had a look?

-j

[STRAT]

i was very tempted to push the buy button on this one today. the only reason i've hesitated is the lack of a production/marketing partner.

with a drug currently being put before the FDA, CXS is within distance of the finishing line yet, seemingly, nobody has wanted to ride with them. this could mean they are unattractive, or it could well be that they are simply driving a very hard bargain.

the drug (used to fight a rare form of leukaemia) looks remarkably effective, and a medical journal has recently highlighted its potential. more data is due shortly. if that's positive, it could herald the point by which the company is pounced upon. if so, there is a big wad of cash to be made on this one in the short term. ABN, Wilsons, and Bioshares each have it as a 'buy'.

has anybody had a look?

-jHi J,
Any sort of time line for Partner and FDA?

[jdg]

they should be ready to launch Q1 next year, so things are moving fast. one would expect a partnership agreement to be reached well before than. that is, if one comes at all. it seems like a gimme, but i'm uneasy a deal has not been done to this point. analysts, however, seem to see it is a given - so i'm pretty keen to pull the trigger. i'll keep having a look into it. if a deal is reached, the sp will go through the roof. one estimate from last year valued the company at over $5 - current price .43c (the price at which some US investors have just taken a stake). you keen, Strat?

-j

[STRAT]

they should be ready to launch Q1 next year, so things are moving fast. one would expect a partnership agreement to be reached well before than. that is, if one comes at all. it seems like a gimme, but i'm uneasy a deal has not been done to this point. analysts, however, seem to see it is a given - so i'm pretty keen to pull the trigger. i'll keep having a look into it. if a deal is reached, the sp will go through the roof. one estimate from last year valued the company at over $5 - current price .43c (the price at which some US investors have just taken a stake). you keen, Strat?

-j
Always interested in coming in the basement door on anything going in the right direction. Will add to watch

[jdg]

well, i finally pulled the trigger on this one and have taken a holding. a high risk high reward option.

the bio sector is full of risks, as we all know, so list those off at your leisure. some specific issues here are the fact that CXS's lead drug, Omacetaxine, is a fairly specialist treatment and thus is targeting a smallish market. but my biggest concern is a lack of a partner. if the drug is so good - and god knows it looks to be - why have they not entered a deal with some big pharma? i have satisfied myself that the option to go-it-alone is purposeful and not necessitated by lack of interest, but i'd be lying if i said it didn't worry me a little (although the upside if a deal is announced will be significant).

so here's what made me take the plunge:

-a lack of earnings within the recent (current?) bear market has forced the price down to what appears to be silly levels.
-the company should release the final stage III results and file with FDA very shortly (both major catalysts for sp movement)
-ABN Amro and Wilsons both rate it ‘strong buy'. Huntley gives it a risked valuation of near $1, but say this is based on very conservative figures. last year bioshares valued it at $5.50. this year they named it in their top three buys.
-some credible investment funds have just stumped up cash, but perhaps the most significant factor that made me take the plunge was..
-one of the board of directors has recently purchased A$1m worth of stock. moreover, this director (Elmar Schnee) not only gets points for having a cool name, but he is also president of Merick Serono - a multi billion dollar pharma. if he thinks it's a good punt them i'm inclined to believe him. with an intimate knowledge of the drug and an intimate knowledge of the sector as a whole, his opinion proved irresistible to me.

this stock isn't one to encourage a good night's sleep, but there's certainly the potential for a multi bagger in the near future.


be pleased to hear from anybody - Strat, did you end up having a look at it?

-j

correction: it was director Geoff Brooke who purchased $1m worth of shares of behalf of his investment firm. and Schnee purchased $1.5m on behalf of Merick Serono

[impacman]

Hi JDG. I don't hold but have been looking at both CXS and PXS. Have had a long term interest in the biotech sector and have held Clinuvel (ASX - CUV) since about 2004 (been purchasing steadily since then with an average entry price of 40c (still a few to go to get back to break even point - although for me it has been and still is an all or nothing position). It has been a ride with a very significant change in strategy about 2006/2007 which has extended timeframes to market etc. Despite this I think it is certainly worth a look at as well and if it makes it through final PIII trials (due Q4 09) IMHO it has the potential to be a botox like blockbuster. Very good Sharescene thread to get a good history - if you would like more information I am happy to start up another thread for CUV.

As you say though these company's are high risk - but big potential returns. I would not get involved in anything that was not end of or finished PIII stage - about 70% of those tend to get approval by all accounts.

Your summary of CXS positives is good and the fact Elmar Schnee (great name!) and Geoff have indirectly bought is even better. The chairwomen of CUV last year bought close to 18 million shares (5% of CUV) indirectly as a director of an Australian investment fund - not her directly of course but I am sure you know what I mean...

Your post has encouraged me to stop procratinating and I am going to have another closer look at it. Will let you know what I do.

Cheers

[jdg]

hey impacman,

i'd be pleased to hear more of your thoughts when you've had your look at it. also, AMRO have just put a valuation on CXS of $1.33 - but i'm yet to see the report.

i don't know anything of CUV, although i see it's had a very good run of late. i'll have a peek at it if i get a chance, good luck with it.

-j

[STRAT]

Hi J.
Had a look at the chart but I dont want to post it. I see a lot of buy signals but dont feel comfortable suggesting that. Noted that this company is pretty much where it was 10 years ago and has swung up and down along the way which tells me they have excited the Market and failed to deliver on many occasions.
The substantial increase in volume since early April is a good sign but my guess it will be a bumpy ride.
Perhaps AA or Phaedrus would be kind enough to give you a better clue on this one. Seems to me possibly a good trading stock but wouldn’t want to have the worry of wondering where it will be in a year.

[jdg]

cheers, Strat, i appreciate the input. like many non earning small cap pharmas, this stock has struggled along for some time. but the end (one way or another...) is certainly in sight. if its lead drug gets to market next year, then the sp will go through the roof. in fact, with results due shortly, and news from the FDA along the way, it will probably jump in increments. little doubt there is high risk involved, but i have concluded they are outweighed by the rewards on offer. having only recently bought in, i'm hoping that my timing has been spot on. time will tell. i'd be most pleased to hear what others have to say. if either AA or P had done a graph on it i'd be more than grateful if they shared it. (actually, Strat, I’d be interested to see your efforts too, but only if you’re happy to post it)
cheers, mate.

-j

[Phaedrus]

The singular striking effect that you notice with this stock is the abrupt increase in daily turnover that began in early April. This was occasioned by a reasonably positive statement that CXS put out at that time. Presumably a couple of buyers thought it to be very positive indeed! As you would expect, such a sudden increase in turnover is reflected in the OBV plot which has of course given a buy signal. This "buy" signal has not been confirmed by any increase in price, as yet.

An ascending triangle has been formed with one side of it being resistance at 47 cents. This triangle is atypical in some respects and I would not like to make too much of it. To my mind, a more critical level of resistance is to be found at 50 cents, as marked. I wouldn't want to buy CXS unless/until that had been broken.

Relatively lightly traded stocks like this are easily pushed around by buying and selling activity and this makes for an interesting ride, I suppose. File this one under "Speculative".

An intriguing chart, for all that.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/CXS516.gif

[STRAT]

Hi J.
the blue vertical lines are the points the indicators I have used have fired in a positive light. Short term looks reasonable as a trade but I would look at it as a punt at this point in time. The volume indicated to me others share your view. The price continued to fall when the volume first increased so I guess there were a number of holders who had had enough. As the volume increased further the price began to rise. I assume not only you see potential in this one :D
If you have fundimental reasons for backing this stock I would say the chart supports your opinion.

[jdg]

P and Strat, thanks so much for your efforts, i really appreciate them. it's an interesting story from both TA and FA perspectives. one way or another i think it will be an interesting ride. a break above that 50c mark would give me a bit of confidence.
cheers again.

-j

[jdg]

well, Phaedrus, it broke through 50c today before settling back to finish right on 50. i guess tomorrow will hold the key. i saw on the DYL thread that a rise in OBV can take a long while to reflect in the sp - i hope i don't have to wait 18 months as was the case there...

still, the chart is looking even better than when you posted, volumes remain strong, and the fundamentals are pretty good, so i’m picking a long and prosperous ride with this one.

-j

[impacman]

A very good layman's explaination of CXS lead drug and PII and III trial intent from ty:webb on Sharescene (3.14 pm Aus time). Still looking and getting more of an itchy trigger finger:rolleyes:

[jdg]

isn't it a great lay summary. certainly what i needed to get my head around things. cheers for alerting me to that, impacman. the more i learn the more i like the furture prospects of CXS. this could well be a multibagger within the next few months. let's see if it can move through that 50c barrier this coming week.

-j

[jdg]

Phaedrus's 50c resistance level certainly proved to be on the mark. it has been knocking on the door of it for the last few days without being able to break through. although there has been a significant increase in trading volume in recent weeks, the enthusaism of buyers has been matched by that of sellers (is a large holder selling down?). still, with momentum provided by the DOW overnight, i'm picking today to be the day for it to close above 50c. let's see if i'm right... (although i suspect any real jump in the price will be tied to news i've mentioned above, which can't be too far away).
how's that itchy trigger finger impacman? with Strat - in dragon's den fashion - declaring he's out, you appear to be me my one hope of having another member of sharetrader join the good train CXS.

-j

[impacman]

Still looking and still an itchy finger - just counting my coins left to invest:rolleyes: Currently at 53c on 332k volume - you call on breaking 50c resistance could well be on the cards. will keep you posted on my position - or lack thereof.

Cheers

[jdg]

yeah, it leapt up to .55 in early trading on news the rights issue was oversubscribed. i have my fingers crossed that it stays above that 50c mark at close. i'd be encouraged by that based on P's analysis (it's risen above 50c a couple of times in the last week but always settled on or below that). next resistance is perhaps 60c. but like i say, by my thinking the right news will see it move up in big chunks. the next six months are going to be very interesting. it’s certainly full of risk, but if all goes well it will be a big earner. i look forward to hearing if that itchy finger gets the better of you...

-j

ps i see that CUV is running very hard, you'll be pleased about that.

[impacman]

Yeah CUV is about where my avg entry price is - so in break even mode (which is good for my time with it). Have 130k shares and as I mentioned in an earlier post have been a SH for about 4/5 years although most buying has been over last 18 to 24 months. Bit like CXS it is an all or nothing share but with every day that passes there is a bit more de-risking:D

[STRAT]

Coming to a head?
The point where this one either breaks through that 50c resistance or breaks below the unconfirmed trendline drawn in is getting close. Good luck guys.

[jdg]

hey Strat, cheers for the updated graph. today's movement makes the graph look even better from a TA perspective (of which i am certainly no expert).

she bust through 50c and settled comfortably above that level, finishing at 53c. that should now provide support, with luck. next stop 60c - which i see from P's graph is the next resistance point (if i'm reading it right).

i believe that new stage three clinical data are being presented on monday, so that might prove to be the catalyst for the next move up.

-j

[impacman]

i believe that new stage three clinical data are being presented on monday, so that might prove to be the catalyst for the next move up.

-j[/QUOTE]

Best I make my decision before then:D Thanks for the chart as well Strat.

[impacman]

Itchy finger got the better of me and I am now in. ;) Notice scale back announcement so may have jumped a bit early still 51c vs 54 close yesterday. To be honest not really fazed as it will either go off or it will plummet to nothing at a fast rate of knots (probably too fast for a stop loss to activate) - good old biotechs for you.

[jdg]

i think you're quite correct. this one is going to go somewhere fast, a few cents here or there won't make a great deal of difference in the end. i'm a little surprised that it has pulled back a bit today after gaining on a down day yesterday. ABN AMRO says they are expected new data at a US conference on monday

http://www.primabiomed.com.au/projects/prodDocuments/ABM%20AMRO%20Morgans%20Healthcare%20Research%20May %2009.pdf

so tuesday may be a good day for us. great to have you on board impacman, let's hope we make a bundle.

-j

[impacman]

i think you're quite correct. this one is going to go somewhere fast, a few cents here or there won't make a great deal of difference in the end. i'm a little surprised that it has pulled back a bit today after gaining on a down day yesterday. ABN AMRO says they are expected new data at a US conference on monday

http://www.primabiomed.com.au/projects/prodDocuments/ABM%20AMRO%20Morgans%20Healthcare%20Research%20May %2009.pdf

so tuesday may be a good day for us. great to have you on board impacman, let's hope we make a bundle.

-j

Glad to be here JDG. Tuesday wil be an interesting point although my understanding of price movement vs clnical trial data is that it is very often not what you expect. Therefore if good results and no major SP appreciation - nothing new in this sector - just hold. The game is at (and just after) first commercial sales - which are set to be Q1 or 2 next year. I am looking forward to the ride and much discussion/debate ith you. Go CSX!:D

[STRAT]

Tuesday Go CSX!:DI think the ASX is open Monday fellas

[impacman]

True... I think there is a presentation due on Mon/Tues though that may have some significnace (having said that given we all know about it I suspect it is another of those kinda hype things). If not, and regardless, I would suggest a quiet beer at the Long Drop (or equivalent) - dependent on your xtra work hours.

Certainly impressed with your TA study and application - would appreciate some education between a pint or two!:D

[jdg]

I think the ASX is open Monday fellas

yip, but the data is being presented in the US, so our market won't get it until tuesday. AMRO suggests it's new data (i hope it is) but i've seen no release from CXS to say that this is the case. however, they are saying they will have the FDA filing completed by mid year, so the final data can't be too far away.

-j

[STRAT]

True... I think there is a presentation due on Mon/Tues though that may have some significnace (having said that given we all know about it I suspect it is another of those kinda hype things). If not, and regardless, I would suggest a quiet beer at the Long Drop (or equivalent) - dependent on your xtra work hours.

Certainly impressed with your TA study and application - would appreciate some education between a pint or two!:D Hi Iman,
Cant do the long drop this weekend but sometime soon would be great.

Thanks for the compliment but I should point out as I have before that Im very much an apprentice at TA. If I was a mechanic Id be first year :D
I post charts for feed back as much as anything and they are by no means recommendations.


That said I think your timing for entry was good and a lot less risky than J's. ( but the early bird gets the fattest worms eh J :D )
The chart is gaining momentum looks better every day.

Reasons for saying this
Break through 5Oc resistance
Trendline confirmed
Rising Volume
ADX shows trend is gaining strength

I would still keep tight stops though. This one has excited and dissapointed the market before ;)

[STRAT]

Thought Id have another crack at candles in public :eek:
Looking at this one from the 30th April there are a few mixed messages.
First two days clear buying pressure but on the third day the stock gaps up and overshoots the mark closing lower. This is the first of 4 days where the sellers take control but their control weakens each day. The next 12 days are all over the place and hard to make a call on but the SP does continue to rise and other indicators show promise. On the 27th the price gaps up again and at days end a Doji is formed. This shows indecision and fairly equal pressure from both buyers and sellers. Could have been a bad sign :confused:. The next day price gaps up again with strong selling pressure and closes below open. Last day still strong selling pressure BUT the intraday low shows the SP bouncing off that 50c resistance line ( could now be support?? Too early to say ) and closes high. All and all a bit messy but take a look at the weekly candle chart. Sweeeeet ( thanks Phaedrus :D) certainly plays a sweeter note with the background noise removed.

[impacman]

Hi Iman,
Cant do the long drop this weekend but sometime soon would be great.

Thanks for the compliment but I should point out as I have before that Im very much an apprentice at TA. If I was a mechanic Id be first year :D
I post charts for feed back as much as anything and they are by no means recommendations.


That said I think your timing for entry was good and a lot less risky than J's. ( but the early bird gets the fattest worms eh J :D )
The chart is gaining momentum looks better every day.

Reasons for saying this
Break through 5Oc resistance
Trendline confirmed
Rising Volume
ADX shows trend is gaining strength

I would still keep tight stops though. This one has excited and dissapointed the market before ;)

Hi Strat, thanks for that. No great time pressure on the Long Drop. I am away the next couple of weekends but maybe the following one I give you a call and see if that might work.

I must admit my entry was driven more by CXS life stage (PIII trial results coming to a head, FDA applications being made etc) - than strict TA - although the 50c resistance point was at the back of my mind. As you know I am more a fundy than anything but am still working my way through Charting for Dummies as I think there is merit in both. My comment about your TA approach was as much about your diligence in learning as specific outcomes - goods to see.

Hope the double shifting is not taking too much of a toll.

Cheers,

Iman

[STRAT]

Hi Strat, thanks for that. No great time pressure on the Long Drop. I am away the next couple of weekends but maybe the following one I give you a call and see if that might work.

I must admit my entry was driven more by CXS life stage (PIII trial results coming to a head, FDA applications being made etc) - than strict TA - although the 50c resistance point was at the back of my mind. As you know I am more a fundy than anything but am still working my way through Charting for Dummies as I think there is merit in both. My comment about your TA approach was as much about your diligence in learning as specific outcomes - goods to see.

Hope the double shifting is not taking too much of a toll.

Cheers,

ImanLater in the month for a beer sounds great.

No double shift. Just a contract that must be completed out of hours which really messes with ones sleeping patterns. Im two old to be workin 16 hrs a day.

Re your entry.
I know less than nothing about the fundamentals of this company but aint it nice when FA and TA comfirm each other. Any change in market perception of those fundamentals will see a quick reversal IMO. Still a spec and speculation on those Fundamentals is the driver I reckon. Good Luck
If I had some spare coin I would have bought in too.

[jdg]

cheers for the graphs, Strat. like impacman, i really appreciate them. i hope we see this momentum that is beginning to build continue. but as we've all said, it will be looming news that really shunts the sp one way or the other. if, and it's a big if, all goes to plan and schedule and Omacetaxine hits the US market in Q1 next year, and we get a good partnership for Europe and launch there is Q3, then this will be a multibagger.
there are many hurdles along the way that could put us on our face, but one thing is certain; it wont be a dull ride.

-j

[jdg]

gee, that was a very underwhelming release. the results were roughly in line with the interim results (although i noted a couple of data drops), but it was the wording of the release that i thought was poor. at least you can't accuse them of ramping... i think this sums it up a little better:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=anUfk2o9N2uY&refer=australia

-j

[impacman]

gee, that was a very underwhelming release. the results were roughly in line with the interim results (although i noted a couple of data drops), but it was the wording of the release that i thought was poor. at least you can't accuse them of ramping... i think this sums it up a little better:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=anUfk2o9N2uY&refer=australia

-j


Yeah I thought it was a little low key as well. Up 4c though at the moment.

[jdg]

yeah, mate, i suspected we'd test that 60c mark on the release of data. it will be interesting to see where it ends up, though. after the initially flurry the buy side has dried up, but it's usually those off screen who move this one. it will be interesting to see what volumes go through. two more parts of the FDA submission are the next news coming our way - they should provide impetus to the sp too.

-j

[jdg]

i'm far from an expert in looking at the data presented in the 202 trial, but from what i can see the final results were roughly in line, but in some instances not quite as good, as the interim data were suggesting. in CP patients there was a slight increase in the CHR from 82% to 85% but a drop in the CyR from 25% to 15%. In AP patients the CHR dropped from 45% to 31% and the CyR from 9% to 6%. In BP patients, there was a rise from 13% to 20%.

i've been waiting to find some interpretation on all of this (and to confirm i'm reading it correctly), but nothing has emerged thus far. i see that there will be a webcast on June 11, so we'll be better informed on the data then. i hope it is more informative than their release to the market - as i've said i really thought that was poor. it sounded rather negative to me.

after having a pretty good surge immediately following the result, the sp has drifted back to about where it began. perhaps the info coming from the webcast will give it a boost. other than that we will wait for the second stage of the FDA filing (which should be submitted this month), results from the 203 trial, and then the final clinical phase of the FDA filing by september. the wild card will be their success (or otherwise) in finding a partner for europe who's prepared to stump up some milestone payments to allow for our direct entry into the US. if this occurs (and the deal is a good one), then it will be undoubtedly the best news for the sp - behind FDA approval (but the partnership really needs to precede that). if we get to market, we should be swimming in cash.

i note from the last CXS presentation that Bernstein Research in 2007 estimated the size of the market for CML with T3515I mutation to be US$336m in 2012 and Wilson HTM have said the market for those failing treatment for CML will be US$500m in 2020 (i assume that includes those with T3515I). given there appears to be no competition emerging in these markets CXS will have these on offer returns to themselves.

a long way to go, but i remain very bullish. how you feeling impacman?

-j

[impacman]

Hi jdg. Thats a pretty good summation of result differences for a non expert I think. There doesn't seem to have been anyone else posting a summation on other sites to confirm or deny so I'll back you up on that one - hopefully not the blind leading the blind:D

I see the price is staying around the 55 - 56c range. I am still quietly confident on this one and am around for the journey to market. The one thing I have noticed about biotechs is they always take longer to do things than expected and their SP doesn't seem to move on good news when you would expect it to. There has been some good coverage in the Australian Financial papers over the last few days and that is all encouraging (certainly getting the CXS story out there). I do however think the two milestones you have mentioned - finding a partner to EU market, and final FDA approval will be the key SP drivers (particularly the latter), and if nothing much happens to SP on news outside of that then I don't believe it is of major concern.

This will certainly be a game for the patient. All good though!

[impacman]

Just had a look at my portfolio on DB and the only blue arrows belonged to 2 Aus biotechs (CXS and CUV) and an NZ healthcare group (ABA). Probably difficult to read anyting into it given the size of the increase but it was nice to see the blue none the less:).

[jdg]

yeah, it's always nice to be up on a down day.

i still haven't found any analysis of the result - but i guess because they were roughly in line with expectations (unless we're both blind...) nothing much has changed. i did note that the analyst in this article is very enthusiastic.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25578732-664,00.html

we may have to wait for the webcast to get really good insight. i suspect (but don't know) the reason the webcast is still a week or so away is that they will then have final results from the 203 trial.

also, like you, i'm planning to be in this until commercial launch and beyond. given where the sp currently is and the highs that it has come from, and given they are targeting US launch in Q1 next year, i think we have timed our entry into this particularly well (if all goes to plan, of course).

-j

[jdg]

it looks like we're in for some positive results that were announced at a conference in Germany over the weekend.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aPvrQ9vDkr2c&refer=australia

it could be a good day. we have moved to or over 60c a couple of times in intra day trading. will this boost it over that mark? i think so.

the webcast on thursday will certainly be interesting.

-j

[jdg]

203 trial results released too. on my first reading many of the data look to be slightly better than those provided by the interim results - although i've only had a quick look and i'm no expert.

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090608005301&newsLang=en

-j

[jdg]

hmmmm, well it had a sniff at 60 cents, trading at 59.5 in the morning but drifted back to finish even (and looking lucky to have done that).

the depth all day looked terrible, but the sp was propped up by off screen buys. at this point i'm unsure if we'll be testing 50 or 60 ... it just appears to have run out of steam a little.

much depends on the webcast thursday. the recent market releases made by CXS are worded in such a way that they make the results sound rather average. i don't think this is the case, and suspect it's simply the dry precision language favoured by many in the scientific community. but i'm looking forward to hearing from the company and the questions that will be fielded. i want to get a feel for the mood inside the camp, and to be assured that all is going to plan.

you got any thoughts on all this, impacman?

-j

[impacman]

Hi JDG. Have been in Raro for the last 5 days so have missed a bit. Will have a look at the announcements and come back to you. Teleconference will be a good indication I think.

Cheers

[jdg]

hope you enjoyed, Raro, impacman - i must say i wasn't overly enamoured with the place, but plenty of sun and a good place to relax.

i have quite a bit to say about the teleconference and investor update release. i was hoping to be filled with confidence at the end of it, but this didn't really happen. i was pleased with certain explanation with regard to the clinical data, but there is very little to compare it to. and i'm struggling to get a true handle on the efficacy of the drug. i was most interested to discover that the analysts who asked questions seemed at as much of a loss as me...so much for the experts... still, i'll be interested to see what they report; and their company valuations, of course.

i did like certain explanations of the data (people live longer when taking it, which is useful…), and the fact that the company appears confident the drug will be approved. the size of the market is really unknown, and the company refuses to make predictions. they did, however, speak extremely confidently about securing a european partner before the year is out. that's a biggie because the size of the milestone payments and other terms of the deal will give a very good indication of the potential of the drug.

i bought this knowing it was a risky one, and after today, the only thing that was confirmed was that that assessment still holds true. nevertheless, i remain happy to hold (something that should not be undertaken lightly in a market that may be due a correction).

i expected the clinical data, the CMC filing to the FDA (that went unannounced except in today’s presentation), and the teleconference/webcast to boost the sp, but i have been proven incorrect. given this, the fireworks i was expecting may be a little further in the future than i first forecast. i still maintain that it's a multibagger if all goes well. and given the timeline for getting to market, it’s hardly a long wait.

-j

[jdg]

just as i was calling off the fireworks display, it leaps 10.5% smashing the 60c resistance to end the day at 63c.

that action is more like what i was expecting on the back of recent news...

-j

[impacman]

I still havn't got onto the detail of the more recent releases etc but as you mention it would seem to be a fair guess that it has been reasonably well received - (10% gain on good volume:) Good to get your feedback on the call yestersay - a few on HC seemed to lose coverage at crucial points so thanks for that. Still going to be a volatile ride I think but not a huge timeframe in the greater scheme of things. Certainly won't complain if we have more like today though! Have a great weekend.

I-man

[impacman]

Here is the web address for the CXS:

http://www.chemgenex.com/wt/uber/webcast_1

Cheers

[impacman]

Wouldn't you know it - put in a buy order for another 25000 at 60c this afternoon (have been mulling over it for a couple of days now) - knew sell price was 1c greater but thought it would stay where it has for the last week or so (59 - 60c). Went out and now see it has jumped 6c or so. Hmmm - chase or wait?:rolleyes:

[jdg]

that would have been a tidy 10 percent gain in an hour...! sorry to hear that, i-man. that uptrend is starting to look really good now. how much steam it has left in the short term is anybody's guess. (a graph from Start or Phaedrus would be greatly appreciated if either has the inclination or the time).

next news is forecast in august with the completion of the FDA filing. the wildcard news will be a european partner - that's the one that will really set things alight, in my opinion. numerous risks still remain, but the chance of a multibagger still beckons on the horizon.

-j

[impacman]

Hi jdg. The sell side looks pretty thin ATM. Definitely some interest but as you say still plenty of risk (and upside of course). I am keen to top up but at the right price and I think 60c is okay at this point - not sure how much further than that I would want to go. Reading info/reports on the company and listening to other posts (HC, SS etc) it would appear that there is a degree of thought that Omacetaxine could well be used as a front line CML treatment and ultimately challenge Gleevec. CXS itself seems to be playing that line down (as they would with FDA application in progress) but if half true it would certainly open the market and potetial rvenue streams massively.

Still early days though and I am happy to hold.

Cheers

[jdg]

she's off again! broken 70c and the sell side is thinner than i've ever seen it. if there are sellers there, they aren't showing themselves.

-j

[impacman]

she's off again! broken 70c and the sell side is thinner than i've ever seen it. if there are sellers there, they aren't showing themselves.

-j

Just had a look at DB and 72c with not many sellers. I am not going to chase this one - just have to be happy with what I have got. Pretty good run though:D

Cheers

[jdg]

it might pull back a bit for you, sellers coming in now and buyers not moving up. i guess we'll have to wait and see.

still, best to focus on the ones you bought and not the one you missed. it's given us a good run so far, i-man, long may it continue. we're still just over half way to where the sp was 12 months ago, and at that time is was considered cheap. much has happened to the markets since, of course, but CXS is in a much, much stronger position now compared to then.

-j

[impacman]

....still, best to focus on the ones you bought and not the one you missed. it's given us a good run so far, i-man, long may it continue.

-j

Amen to that!

[impacman]

Annopuncement out today that they are delisting from the NASDAQ and restructuring the board. Reading it it doesn't seem to sinister (in fact you could sympathise with them reading between the lines) but will be interesting to see what the market thinks of it

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090629/pdf/31j9175f656vc0.pdf

[impacman]

CXS has been punished the last couple of days. Dosen't seem to be any obvious reason for it but certainly not a good look. It is definitiely following the biotech volatility I have come to expect:rolleyes:

[STRAT]

Hi J.
the blue vertical lines are the points the indicators I have used have fired in a positive light. Short term looks reasonable as a trade but I would look at it as a punt at this point in time. The volume indicated to me others share your view. The price continued to fall when the volume first increased so I guess there were a number of holders who had had enough. As the volume increased further the price began to rise. I assume not only you see potential in this one :D
If you have fundimental reasons for backing this stock I would say the chart supports your opinion.The picture has changed fellas. Hope you made good from this trade. As the blue lines are marking buy signals in the first chart the red ones in this one have been saying sell

[STRAT]

The picture has changed fellas. Hope you made good from this trade. As the blue lines are marking buy signals in the first chart the red ones in this one have been saying sellSorry guys my Iphone crashed :eek:

[impacman]

Rightly or wrongly still in. Always intended to stick with it (despite volatility which I expect). Sitting at my entry price and am prepared to hold if it drops a bit further.

Can discuss relative merits at H&T.

Cheers

[jdg]

i sold a few @ .65 then some @ .62, but i am still holding my original - and largest - parcel (the ones i flicked off i bought on the way up @ .50 and .56). the only reason i offloaded my later purchases was because i was worried about the market generally, i certainly did see this dramatic drop in CXS sp. i was lucky to time it ok (at the time i thought i was selling myself short - very happy to have been proven wrong). i still intend to hold through from here. this was always about the punt that the drug would get to market. unless i see evidence that that's unlikely, i'm hanging in there. bummer seeing the paper profits diminish a great deal, but the potential is still there. in saying all of that, i'd really like to see .50 hold.

-j

[impacman]

i sold a few @ .65 then some @ .62, but i am still holding my original - and largest - parcel (the ones i flicked off i bought on the way up @ .50 and .56). the only reason i offloaded my later purchases was because i was worried about the market generally, i certainly did see this dramatic drop in CXS sp. i was lucky to time it ok (at the time i thought i was selling myself short - very happy to have been proven wrong). i still intend to hold through from here. this was always about the punt that the drug would get to market. unless i see evidence that that's unlikely, i'm hanging in there. bummer seeing the paper profits diminish a great deal, but the potential is still there. in saying all of that, i'd really like to see .50 hold.

-j

And it would appear to have done just that .... for today. I have a view very much aligned to yours jdg - it is a punt and in taking a position that was very clear. Unless something clearly indicates that the drug and/or trials are not meeting the grade I am in. That stance means in reality that I will wear a 50% loss at best should I/we be wrong.

I should add that I view this as an educated punt - but punt none the less.

All the best to us jdg:D

[STRAT]

I dont understand fellas.
There was plenty of time to get on as this was going up
There has been plenty of time to get off as it has been going down
If you like the story that much Why couldnt you get off and get on again when it turns.
You could put the same money back in but for more shares compounding your gains if you are right plus you would have ensured yourselves in the event you are wrong.

[jdg]

good point, strat. i was happy to lock in a few gains, but that was more luck than anything else. but this stock will be driven by news, and three things are in play. one, notification of FDA application completed. two, sign up of a european partner and three, potential corporate activity (is gettig out of the NASDAQ making it easier for possible suitors?). i don't want to be out if/when these things occur (particularly two or three) and so it is worth taking the volatility along the way. if Omacetaxine makes it to market, these ups and downs will look pretty insignificant. as impacman says, this one is a punt. always has been, and as such she's going to be a bumpy ride. within six months or so it will be known if our bet has paid off or not...

-j

[STRAT]

Sorry guys my Iphone crashed :eek: You are quite right Shasta I dont actually own an Iphone. As you so eloquently put it what would a Guitar playing Petrol Head Bogan be doing with an Iphone ? :eek:

That post was for wbosher but I guess he missed it :p


I bet Trackers has one though :D


PS not really a metal head though. Click the link in my signature. That sums up the centre of my musical taste quite nicely :D
Just beautiful and worth playing right to the end. Careful though it may cause unforeseen urges to rush out and buy a Strat.

[jdg]

i've been away for a couple of months, but see this thread has gone quiet. the sp has had a good run of late and with FDA submission due for completion some time this month, we could be in for some fireworks. i-man, you still about? strat, you still keeping an eye on it?

-j

[impacman]

i've been away for a couple of months, but see this thread has gone quiet. the sp has had a good run of late and with FDA submission due for completion some time this month, we could be in for some fireworks. i-man, you still about? strat, you still keeping an eye on it?

-j

Hi JDG - still here - in fact was thinking of posting on the CSX site earlier this morning but got distracted by the day job:eek: Hope your break was recreational or otherwise positive. Been a very good run in last week or two but on no news so to speak. Get the impression that either people understand announcement expectations or there is something brewing internally. Either way quite happy. I have the same position I had when first taking a position - we will understand the cost or benefit when mkting approval is given - well perhaps a little upside before that milestone but you know what I mean.

Cheers,

I-man

[STRAT]

i've been away for a couple of months, but see this thread has gone quiet. the sp has had a good run of late and with FDA submission due for completion some time this month, we could be in for some fireworks. i-man, you still about? strat, you still keeping an eye on it?

-jHi jdg and the answer would be no. Ive had a hard time keeping an eye on anything. The day job has me flat out. So much for the recession :rolleyes:. 3 months ago I was thinking I might have to sell my portfolio to buy food now Im booked solid to Christmas.

[jdg]

that's great news, strat, i'm pleased to hear it. hopefully your stocks are doing just as well. all the best,

-j

[jdg]

i-man, i saw strat's message but not yours. good to hear you're still holding. my trip was great, thanks. i think the sp appreciation is due to the submission to the FDA scheduled for completion this month. hopefully that will make the market stand up and take notice. i still believe we have the potential for a multibagger with CXS. i hope all is well with you.

-j

ps. i trust you saw these (with thanks to gumbyhead and arjan1972 from another forum)

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,2...270-664,00.html

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26022571-23634,00.html

[impacman]

[QUOTE=jdg;272488]i-man, i saw strat's message but not yours. good to hear you're still holding. my trip was great, thanks. i think the sp appreciation is due to the submission to the FDA scheduled for completion this month. hopefully that will make the market stand up and take notice. i still believe we have the potential for a multibagger with CXS. i hope all is well with you.

-j

I had seen those and thanks for the links. All good this end and even better after spending a really good session with the ChCh ST crew on Sat night - next time would be good to catch up with yourself and select a drink or feed to celebrate a CXS multibagger:D Good to hear your trip went well and that you are also sitting tight. Bring on the announcements.

Cheers,

I-man.

[jdg]

there's the announcment, I-man. put a cross on your calendar; if all goes to plan we will be on market in nine months. i note that there has been some selling the news. i will hazard a quess that that will be short lived. we are not just in for a nine month wait. submission to the EMEA will come in fourth quarter and the company has stated that they want a european partner by year's end. also, more clinical data will become available as the year progressess. and, of course, we can never rule out corporate activity... let's plan on a drink when it hits $2!

-j

[jdg]

very good article today. with the presentation tomorrow we may be in for some action.

to my mind it's only a matter of time.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,26051229-664,00.html

-j

[impacman]

there's the announcment, I-man. put a cross on your calendar; if all goes to plan we will be on market in nine months. i note that there has been some selling the news. i will hazard a quess that that will be short lived. we are not just in for a nine month wait. submission to the EMEA will come in fourth quarter and the company has stated that they want a european partner by year's end. also, more clinical data will become available as the year progressess. and, of course, we can never rule out corporate activity... let's plan on a drink when it hits $2!

-j

Have marked the application date off in my diary! The article you posted the link for was a good read so thanks for that. All good stuff really - be very interesting to see what happens with SP today. We are in no hurry so not a major either way. Definitely keen on a celebratory drink if the $2 mark is hit - could well go higher although a TO might put a dampener on that.

Cheers

[jdg]

well, there is the presentation slides. nothing new or explosive in there, but the graph putting emphasis on the fact that OAMPRO has the ability to kill cancer cells in vitro should get people thinking about the possibility this drug may contribute to a cure.

for me the two major risks ahead are delays/failure to gain FDA approval and delay/failure in gaining a eurpean corporate partner. i was very pleased to see the latter was still scheduled for this year - news on that front would be a massive sp driver.

let's see if we get some post conference buying...

-j

[jdg]

actually, i've just seen that the presentation was webcast eariler this morning. bugger....i missed it.

they should upload it to the website at some point - that will certainly be worth a look. did you catch it, I-man

-j

[impacman]

actually, i've just seen that the presentation was webcast eariler this morning. bugger....i missed it.

they should upload it to the website at some point - that will certainly be worth a look. did you catch it, I-man

-j

No I missed it as well. Up 4.5c at this time which is good. I agree with the risks you mentioned. Just a wait and see game now. Bring on the Euro partner!

[jdg]

yip, nice rise on very good volume. some people were obviously impressed by the presentation (including, we can only hope, a good eurpean pharma!). let's hope the buying continues all day.

-j

[jdg]

i listened to the presentation this morning. it was pretty good. a couple of points to note:

Greg Collier twice mentioned (once saying it was market guidance) that the company expected to have a eurpean partner by year's end and that this would include payments to fund the launch of omapro in the U.S.. this is a biggie and as i've said a few times will be a major driver for the sp. if they get a partner who is willing to pay to be on board, then that is a major vote of confidence in the product's commercial viability and profitability. also, it should mean no more cap raisings are necessary.

the second major point to note was that right at the very end (and it came from the only audience question, which, by the way, sounded to be of very modest size - so thank god for the internet) where i think he said he was very confident of getting priority review, and in that case FDA approval should come early next year.

things rarely run so smoothly, but a partner by year's end and a launch early next year is the stated scenario. if that's on the money; we're in the money.

-j

[impacman]

i listened to the presentation this morning. it was pretty good. a couple of points to note:

Greg Collier twice mentioned (once saying it was market guidance) that the company expected to have a eurpean partner by year's end and that this would include payments to fund the launch of omapro in the U.S.. this is a biggie and as i've said a few times will be a major driver for the sp. if they get a partner who is willing to pay to be on board, then that is a major vote of confidence in the product's commercial viability and profitability. also, it should mean no more cap raisings are necessary.

the second major point to note was that right at the very end (and it came from the only audience question, which, by the way, sounded to be of very modest size - so thank god for the internet) where i think he said he was very confident of getting priority review, and in that case FDA approval should come early next year.

things rarely run so smoothly, but a partner by year's end and a launch early next year is the stated scenario. if that's on the money; we're in the money.

-j

Thanks for that J. Sounds all good and the market seem to be taking it on board looking at the SP at the moment - up over 10%. Bio techs are notorius for slippage but CXS seem to be doing a good job at the moment and it will be great if they can meet those targets. Keep the faith:D

[jdg]

yeah, it's on a lovely little run, I-man. volume remains very good too.

if all goes to plan, in six months time any stock bought below $1 will look incredibly cheap. still a lot of risk, of course, but i remain very comfortable holding. i think we're in for one hell-of-a ride.

-j

[jdg]

bioshares has just called CXS the most undervalued biotech on the ASX. and "should currently be trading at $5".

current price 72c...

http://www.biotechdaily.com.au/

there's a bundle to be made on this one.

-j

[impacman]

bioshares has just called CXS the most undervalued biotech on the ASX. and "should currently be trading at $5".

current price 72c...

http://www.biotechdaily.com.au/

there's a bundle to be made on this one.

-j

Thnks once again JDG - a good find (not that we are biased or anything:D. would certainly like to hit those numbers at some point. Seriously thinking of selling my VPE and topping up on a few other holdings including CXS. Will give it some thought though.

Thanks again.

[Abracadabra]

I bought a few of these a couple of weeks back. I notice the price is up a wee bit now, but when I saw your post JDG earlier in the day regarding Bioshares value I immediately looked at the price, and noticed it was down!! Don't you hate it when you read something positive and the prices doesn't react the way you think it should!

[jdg]

welcome aboard, Abracadabra.

it ended up a little, but these little moves are neither here nor there. as i'm sure you've read on this thread, i'm very bullish on this one. it's high risk, of course, but i think we'll be well served by CXS.

best regards,

-j

[impacman]

Very nice rise today on some reasonable volume. Interesting the delay in uptake from article posting - which I am assuming is the reason for the interest (nothing else has come out that I am aware of). Just highlighting the fact that when this goes on real news she will go along way!::)
Enjoy the week.

Cheers

I-man

PS: welcome aboard as well Abra - she will be an interesting ride if nothing else:D

[jdg]

i saw you pop up on the other forum, I-man, but the aussie posters didn't bite.

this quarter is a big one for CXS, in my opinion.

The big test is gaining a european partner who is willing to stump up enough cash to fund US sales (and at the same time shore up confidence that OMAPRO has a big future). the company has consistently said that this will occur before year's end - well it has to. it's time to prove they can walk the talk.

news of such a deal will be huge. fingers crossed it all comes together.

other news that will come this quarter are more 203 trial data and the submission to EMEA. neither will be big price movers unless the 203 results differ wildly from data so far. still, they should keep CXS on the radar.

-j

[impacman]

i saw you pop up on the other forum, I-man, but the aussie posters didn't bite.

this quarter is a big one for CXS, in my opinion.

The big test is gaining a european partner who is willing to stump up enough cash to fund US sales (and at the same time shore up confidence that OMAPRO has a big future). the company has consistently said that this will occur before year's end - well it has to. it's time to prove they can walk the talk.

news of such a deal will be huge. fingers crossed it all comes together.

other news that will come this quarter are more 203 trial data and the submission to EMEA. neither will be big price movers unless the 203 results differ wildly from data so far. still, they should keep CXS on the radar.

-j

Hi JDG. Been away on holiday with family and thought I had replied but saw your post on HC yesterday and checked here to find I hadn't - too much time couped up in a bach with three kids <5:eek: Absolutely no bites from the Australian team - must be too focused on CXS SP!

I agree with your comments above and was interested in Southern Cross's comments yesterday. He is quite involved in the biotech sector and imo pretty knowledgeable (he is a long time CUV holder and I have noted his posts about a range of biotechs over the last couple of years). If a Euro partner is not found by year end it would be annoying but I am not of a view that it signals a major black mark against mgmt. The one thing that seems to be consistent in the sector is time delays and missed milestones. While not optimal, the key thing is that the milestones get ticked off in time. Sometimes it seems to be is of far more benefit to delay to ensure key left field questions or flags from regulators are dealt with optimally. Having said that I am not saying the milestones they have communicated won't be met and like you am waiting for the announcements over the next few months.

Hope all is well down south.

Cheers,

I-man

[jdg]

hey I-Man, i trust you've adjusted from holiday mode (never easy).

good to see a little bit of interest in CXS in the last couple of days. a good rise on tuesday and good volumes yesterday. let's hope they are getting close to that partnership agreement. i truly believe that news will draw in the anchor and we will be away.

i was told by Greg Collier that "we are still planning to complete a deal with a EU partner for Omapro before the end of this calendar year and this is on track".

it would be great to have a partner's help to complete the filing to the EMEA i.e. someone who has done it before.

-j

[impacman]

hey I-Man, i trust you've adjusted from holiday mode (never easy).

good to see a little bit of interest in CXS in the last couple of days. a good rise on tuesday and good volumes yesterday. let's hope they are getting close to that partnership agreement. i truly believe that news will draw in the anchor and we will be away.

i was told by Greg Collier that "we are still planning to complete a deal with a EU partner for Omapro before the end of this calendar year and this is on track".

it would be great to have a partner's help to complete the filing to the EMEA i.e. someone who has done it before.

-j

Hi JDG, all well here. Really good to see GC's response to your query about EU partner - sounds pretty to the point. See some on HC were not to sure about ability to get partner this year - didn't seem to be based on anything really. Having said that it is a biotech and they are known for delays. SP seems to be holding well and if anything indicates a little bit more interest than in last few months. Not long to go now hopefully - by that I mean 4 months or so:)

Cheers,

I-man

[jdg]

i agree, i-man, delays seem to be part of the territory but we are getting very close to the start line. what's going to change from here that will significantly alter a deal? it's time to prove we can get some ink on paper. we've always discussed the risks, and for me, not gaining a partner is a significant one.

fingers crossed...

-j

[impacman]

Not majorly Sp sensitive news but nice to have the recognition - certainly can't hurt CXS.

ChemGenex CEO Dr Greg Collier was today recognised for his outstanding contribution to the Australian biotech sector, receiving the AusBiotech 2009 Chairman’s Excellence Award for outstanding contribution by an individual within a company.

Dr Collier has played a significant role internationally and domestically in promoting Australia’s leadership in biotechnology development and commercialisation. Under Dr Collier’s leadership ChemGenex has emerged as an Australian success story, being the first Australian company to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) to the US Food and Drug Administration for a cancer medicine.

[jdg]

good on him, he deserves the recognition (and a bit of publicity certainly wont hurt CXS). now let's just hope he is as good with the commercialisation as he is with the chemistry.

cheers, i-man, trust you are well.

-j

[impacman]

All good thanks JDG. Wider portfolio is looking a little red but that is to be expected after such a good run. Can't complain. Hope all good with you to.

Cheers,

I-man

[jdg]

i'm having a great run this year, I-man. but given the bath i took last year, i needed to...

it's good to see CXS creeping up on a down day. it will be curious to see if the award given to GC gains any publicity.

-j

[jdg]

good to see CXS holding up pretty well, I-man (so far…). i did a little research over the weekend and reaffirmed my belief that this one is undervalued. but i am even more strongly of the view that we need news of a euro partner by year's end. if we don't get that it tells me that the industry is not as excited by Omapro as we are, and also that a capital raising is likely (we need money to launch in the US)

i think the lack of a partner, and therefore a greater degree of uncertainty, is holding us back. consequently, news of such a deal will send the sp into orbit, in my view.

the risks are less now than when we entered this stock, but a couple of big ones remain. conquer those and we are in for a fantastic ride. the upside of the sp looks massive.

-j

[jdg]

with thanks to chinesewhispers from another site:

from RBS...

ChemGenex (CXS) has two key milestones approaching. Firstly, we are expecting the
US FDA to provide CXS with a priority review date next week. Secondly, we are
expecting a partnering deal (ex-US) to be signed before Christmas. Buy CSX today in
anticipation of the FDA granting priority review over the weekend and trade the stock
as the two key milestones are achieved.

Table 1 : Milestones to focus on
Estimated date Milestone Impact
Achieved Complete submission of rolling NDA for Omapro to the FDA Positive
November 2009 FDA decision on whether Omapro is eligible for Priority Review Positive
End CY09 Complete non-US partnering discussions concerning Omapro Major positive
4QCY09 Initiate European regulatory filing for Omapro Positive
2QCY10 Anticipated approval and commercial launch of Omapro in the US Major positive
3QCY10 Anticipated approval and commercial launch of Omapro in EU Major positive

The biotech sector has matured significantly
Life science stocks have long been considered speculative. While still high risk, we believe
the sector has matured significantly over the last three years, with a number of companies
reporting late stage clinical trial results, applying for product approvals or being acquired. To
this end, we closely monitor approaching milestones of a number of the life science
companies, with the goal of clearly highlighting potential value inflection points. Cancer
company ChemGenex (CXS), has two key near-term milestones, which if achieved will be
significant for the company and may lead to a rerating of its shareprice. We always
acknowledge the higher risk nature of these companies and encourage investors to take
profits once milestones are achieved.
Receipt of priority review would be positive, as it sets out a schedule for approval
CXS’ lead drug, Omapro, is under development to treat a type of leukaemia. In early
September 2009, CXS announced submission of its New Drug Application (NDA) to the US
FDA for Omapro. As part of this CXS applied to the FDA for Priority Review. For products
believed to address unmet needs (like Omapro), the receipt of Priority Review can shorten
the average amount of time from application to a decision by the FDA on whether to approve
the drug for sale, from 10 months to 6 months, accelerating market launch and ultimately
revenues. We expect CXS to receive notification on whether or not it is eligible for priority
review in early November (our estimate is 8 November US time - which is this weekend). If
priority review is received, we expect the FDA to make a decision on whether to approve
Omapro for sale in early March; a company making event. If priority review is not received in
November this would be negative for sentiment, although it is unlikely to have a material
impact on the company’s long term ambitions.
European partner due to be announced by year-end
The next milestone we are focused on is a partnering deal for Omapro in Europe, which is
expected before the end of CY09. If achieved, this will be a major positive for CXS and will
reduce the need for additional capital to be raised to fund the US launch in CY10. Buy CXS
today in anticipation of the FDA granting priority review over the weekend and take some
profits as the two key milestones are achieved.

-----------

all sounds good and the market is responding at the moment. could be a great end to the year.

-j

[COLIN]

Have been out of town for a few days and it has been nice to come back on a more positive day, particularly to see CXS, ACL and ACR all perform with distinction.

[impacman]

Have been out of town for a few days and it has been nice to come back on a more positive day, particularly to see CXS, ACL and ACR all perform with distinction.

Thanks for the info jdg. Agree Colin - great to see CXS moving the way it is. Bring on the partnership deal.:D

[jdg]

it was interesting that they were suggesting trading on the news (selling the fact). although that might be a good idea for the news regarding fast track status (if that occurs, and i can't see why it wont), but as i've harped on (and on and on) about, the derisking that comes with a partner for europe (assuming that comes with a cash contribution - probably dependant on FDA approval) is such a derisking factor that i feel it's news to buy in to; assuming, as i do, that the sp is way below where is should be. who knows. the great thing about CXS is that the timeframes are so immediate that we don't have to wait for long. perhaps Colin can leave town again... me and I-man will stock the fridge with champaigne...

have a great weekend, guys.

-j

[jdg]

this time with thanks to Forseys:

Chemgenex Update - Key Value Drivers Imminent PDF | Print | E-mail
Written by Mike Rabe
Friday, 06 November 2009 00:00

Back in July, I introduced BioMedReports readers to a little known Australian biotech company, Chemgenex (CXS.AX) (Nasdaq:CXSPY). Chemgenex is an Australian pharmaceutical company developing personalized oncology medicines.

Since my July article, Chemgenex has filed its NDA with the FDA (in September), which was reported by BMR.

Very soon (expected this month) the FDA is expected to make a decision on whether OMAPRO™, Chemgenex’s lead drug, is eligible for Priority Review. Receiving Priority Review can shorten the average amount of time from application to a decision by the FDA on whether to approve the drug for sale, from ten months to six months. Granting of Priority Review would significantly accelerate market launch and expected revenues.

If the FDA approves OMAPRO™ in 1H 2010 (could come as early as March), Chemgenex should begin to see major revenues in mid-2010.

Chemgenex expects to file its MAA with the EMEA (European Medicines Agency) for OMAPRO™ toward the end of the year. The latest buzz in Australian biotech circles is that a partnering deal for the European market could come before Christmas. Chemgenex will go it alone for the U.S. market, but a deal with a partner for the European market will reduce the need for additional capital to be raised to fund the US launch later in 2010.

The Company expects to have approval and commercial launch for OMAPRO™ in Europe by Q4 2010. By this time next year, Chemgenex could have substantial revenue streams from OMAPRO™ in the two largest pharmaceutical markets in the world.

Chemgenex’s stock on the Australian market has been on a run in recent days. However, Chemgenex’s ADR (CXSPY) has been in a slumber the past few weeks. That will not last long and it provides an opportunity for keen investors in the U.S.

For those considering a biotech with strong upside potential for 2010, you might want to take a close look at Chemgenex. In terms of risk/reward ratios, I currently give Chemgenex one of my highest ratings.

Disclosure: Long Chemgenex

---------------
it's starting to get great exposure as people are realising CXS's potential. now let's just hope that potential is fulfilled.

-j

[impacman]

Indeed. Just need the FDA Prioroity Review and the Euro Partner then we are away. Certainly like the idea of a nice bubbly as you mentioned above when that happens!:D Go the week for CXS.

Cheers

[impacman]

ASX release as above. Be interesting to see what the SP does today:D

[evilroyrule]

thanks pacman. ive been in for about 9 weeks, approx 17% lift since then. do you think there will be any lift today or waiting for euro partner announcement?

[impacman]

thanks pacman. ive been in for about 9 weeks, approx 17% lift since then. do you think there will be any lift today or waiting for euro partner announcement?

Looks like a pretty muted response from the market so far so that would indicate that the Euro partner is the key - as jdg has been flagging. Recent rise has probably been factoring the expectation that the FDA approvals would be forthcoming. Will watch more today to see what happens.:)

[jdg]

yip, a fairly muted response, I-man, i guess because it was rather predictable. nevertheless, it is great news. we now have a definitive timeline to launch (although the FDA may take a little longer than they say).

good to see you aboard evilroyrule.

all we need now is that partner...

-j

ps, the ok from FDA at this stage means the application was complete etc - pleasing to see this. occasionally they'll ask for more information at his stage, i believe.

[impacman]

JDG I think your observations regards completness of application are bang on. Euro partner will be the initiator of more significant Sp increase.

Evilroyrule - good to see you here as well as IRN - must have a simialr appetite for more "riskier" investments! :D

[evilroyrule]

thanks pac man. despite my inexperience even i knew holding all oilers wasnt the best move. but made the mistake of spreading myself thin over a few stocks. in hindsight would have been better to stick with just a few. never mind happy now with my choices, and have been slowly averaging up as the money/my wifes spending allows.

[jdg]

last time we got good news it took a day for the sp to respond. today might see a lift, perhaps.

-j

[COLIN]

last time we got good news it took a day for the sp to respond. today might see a lift, perhaps.

-j

Well, I guess we have to be thankful for small mercies - and trust that they will be bigger in future.

[evilroyrule]

nice start to the day with buy support growing!

[impacman]

nice start to the day with buy support growing!

Looking good indeed. Looks like JDG's call about delayed SP improvement is on the money. Just imagine what will happen when a Euro partner announcement comes through!

[jdg]

it's been an interesting month as we are yet to see a single down day.

but as the sp is continuing to creep up, so is xmas. let's hope that deal is getting close. the right partnership agreement would see the sp move closer to $2 than $1 in no time at all, in my opinion.

i would love to think they are working with a future partner on the MAA and we'll get submission news at the same to time as one announcing a deal...now that would be a dream announcement.

we've had a good run so far, i-man, and it's great to see a few more people on sharetrader jump on board the good ship CXS, but with the right roll of the dice we'll all have plenty more to celebrate.

in the meantime, i'll enjoy this month of only going in one direction...

-j

[COLIN]

Thanks for inviting me on board, chaps!

[impacman]

SP is moving slowly but surely. You are right - a partnership announcement would send it rocketing. Good to have you on board Colin. Hopefully we all are smiling even more come Christmas:D

[evilroyrule]

morning fellas, any thoughts on when an announcement might be? ive tried hunting via the internet but as you might expect nothing there! in the midst of a very strong uptrend, how many positive days has it been now? trying to weigh up the time to add some.

[impacman]

morning fellas, any thoughts on when an announcement might be? ive tried hunting via the internet but as you might expect nothing there! in the midst of a very strong uptrend, how many positive days has it been now? trying to weigh up the time to add some.

Million dollar question that one. I believe the only indication of timing they have given is before the end of this calander year. By my calc should be somewhere in the next 45 days - not very helpful I know but I don't think there is much more out there to go on. Should qualify the "indication" comment above - it was a bit stronger than an indication - more a formal milestone!

Looking at the Dow it could be another green day I suspect.

Have a good day all.

[evilroyrule]

thanks pacman. geez, there are so many good prospects out there at the mo, hard to know where to put the money, even if you can find some! im like the sound of the 'formal milestone'. in for a penny in for a pound. enjoy the sunshine!

[jdg]

here’s something of a review of the much discussed deal:

in a September presentation, Greg Collier twice mentioned (once saying it was market guidance) that the company expected to have a European partner by year's end and that this would include payments to fund the launch of Omapro in the U.S.

Collier reiterated this to me in October, saying, "we are still planning to complete a deal with a EU partner for Omapro before the end of this calendar year and this is on track".

a number of analyists have stated the same timeframe lately.

but as i-man, and others on another forum have said, these dates tend to slip in the biotech arena. in this instance, however, i will be unhappy if the deal is not done within the much-stated timeframe. clearly I don’t want them to sell themselves short by rushing a deal that is not optimal, but as I’ve said before what’s likely to change between now and launch that will aid a deal? not much, by my way of thinking (maybe some more data).

certainly any partner will be a little uneasy about stumping up cash without the drug’s approval, but this can be navigated by having caveats on the cash coming in after milestones are achieved – FDA approval, for example. yip, the partner will only benefit from approval by the EMEA, but if the FDA gives us the nod, the chances Europe will not follow are surely very slim, one would assume.

that being the case, and given in very recent times the company has said they can make a deal, we should expect one to be signed.

to me this a big test for Collier and his team, and one i clearly want them to pass.

to reiterate the reasons why i think this deal is so important:

practically, it will mean that there will not have to be a capital raising. but perhaps just as importantly, it will signal to the market that the management team can follow through on their stated goals and, critically, offer confidence in the success and profitability of Omapro.

we have discussed on this forum the risks associated with CXS, and this to me is a key one. remove it, and the road ahead looks so much brighter. hence why I believe it will send the sp skyrocketing if it’s achieved.

in recent times on sharetrader all I’ve really talked about is this deal, and so i will make this my final summary and i wont bore everybody anymore (honestly, I’ve become like a parrot…) and hope that the next time i mention it, it will be to comment on the done deal before xmas.

here’s hoping.

-j

ps. i hope my talk of the 'up month' yesterday didn't jinx it today...

[impacman]

here’s something of a review of the much discussed deal:


ps. i hope my talk of the 'up month' yesterday didn't jinx it today...

Doesn't look like it so far:D

[jdg]

Doesn't look like it so far:D

true! it's marching toward $1. without news will it be able to hurdle that psychological mark? let's see.
go the up month!

-j

[evilroyrule]

here comes the dollar. no doubt getting set for an announcement. we are always the last to know!

[impacman]

Broken the $1 level. Can it close that way?

[jdg]

more likely it's been the publicity we've had lately, but i wonder if anybody is building a significant stake. volumes have been pretty high all month.

-j

[evilroyrule]

1 bid at 99 for 100k? stake building i say. been big single trades all day of 50k.

[jdg]

it couldn't hold $1 but another day of solid volumes; I guess time will tell whether or not a large stake is being taken.

it could be a tough day tomorrow, though, i expect the DOW will drop and that might flow through to the ASX and CXS has run pretty hard - can the up month continue...?

-j

[evilroyrule]

may have broken that 1$ resistance. if so by close im in for more

[jdg]

happy to be wrong on my call - and it cut through $1 like butter. i really thought it might balk at that mark for psychological reasons alone. let's now hope it holds.

-j

[trackers]

And....liftoff


Having a sniff myself, story looks good. In a healthy uptrend, boosted by great rise from 0.95 to 1.045 today..!


Edit: Really good overview:
http://www.biotechdaily.com.au/media/backissues/2009%20September/BD%20Biotech%20Daily%20September%209.pdf

[jdg]

i see you're on board, trackers. hope the up month continues for you. there is potentially a very good story here.

-j

[jdg]

i entered this stock simply on the prospect of making a bundle of cash, but this is pretty damn cool to read. with thanks to milstoj:

http://leukemia.about.com/b/2008/10/22/susans-story.htm

-j

[evilroyrule]

took the opportunity today while the stock stops for breath to go back for more. nice low volume day, small fluctuations matter little with this stock. OBV and other trends for weeks end will still look nice and positive.

[COLIN]

i entered this stock simply on the prospect of making a bundle of cash, but this is pretty damn cool to read. with thanks to milstoj:

http://leukemia.about.com/b/2008/10/22/susans-story.htm

-j

Yes, I agree, a "good news read." It had particular resonance with me, because of family circumstances which I need not go into. Thanks jdg for drawing attention to it.

[evilroyrule]

hello all,

nice volume all ready, helped one trade for 930k at .97. cld be interesting day. they were keen to get that buy in nice and early.

[jdg]

with thanks to Reecey:

http://www.glgroup.com/News/New-Drug-For-Resistant-CML-45013.html

-j

[evilroyrule]

good god! first irn, now this. praise be to jeebers.

[impacman]

good god! first irn, now this. praise be to jeebers.

My thoughts exactly:D Now all we need is the Euro partner announcement and I'm off for the day.

[evilroyrule]

morning legs, lets hope that at least this will hold cxs up. i like the way they seem to systematically release info. hopefully partnership announcement in a few weeks also! im looking around me to see what i can sell to pick up some shares today.

[trackers]

Excellent!

Muted reaction given the long road ahead, but will certainly be worth the wait:

"An opinion by the EMEA is expected in the fourth quarter of 2010. If approved, the marketing license will be valid simultaneously in all EU Member States plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. Orphan Drug designation will give omacetaxine market exclusivity for a period of ten years. "

[evilroyrule]

what the hell just happened?

[impacman]

what the hell just happened?

I have no idea. Have reviewed announcement, other forum comments and anything else I can think of. No idea why a drop of .94ish to .79.5ish and then the rebound. Particularly in light of announcement which was positive if anything but maybe neutral.

I am not that sure/savvy regards market manipulations and am very wary of raising any view of them but from my perspective this would appear to be either a very panicked seller, someone who f@#$ked up, or a blantent example of trying to influence the market (note I used influence rather than manipulate!). Anyway a very random movement in SP. Would appreciate more savvy investors views.

Thanks,

I-man

[evilroyrule]

my initial thought was some inside wrk re announcement or otherwise of euro partner. but then volume wasnt spectacular. interested in others thoughts, colin, you seem a man of sound reason.

how quickly things can change in 7 days huh. anyone remember 1.08?

[COLIN]

my initial thought was some inside wrk re announcement or otherwise of euro partner. but then volume wasnt spectacular. interested in others thoughts, colin, you seem a man of sound reason.

how quickly things can change in 7 days huh. anyone remember 1.08?

Absolutely no idea, sorry. I was away from computer for most of the day - perhaps a good thing as I might otherwise have panicked if I had observed the sudden dip. Seems strange for this to have happened on the day of the AGM - perhaps someone misinterpreted some information, and then rumours spread.

[meesham]

I'm thinking it dropped a bit, some stops got triggered and it snowballed from there.

Edit: I've just checked the trades throughout the day, within 3 minutes starting at 1:47pm (Sydney time) it went from 87.5 down to 79.5 with the price drops only a few seconds apart, then quickly climbed back up again within 6 minutes, looks like stop losses to me.

[evilroyrule]

good work meesham, thanks

[trackers]

I'm thinking it dropped a bit, some stops got triggered and it snowballed from there.

Edit: I've just checked the trades throughout the day, within 3 minutes starting at 1:47pm (Sydney time) it went from 87.5 down to 79.5 with the price drops only a few seconds apart, then quickly climbed back up again within 6 minutes, looks like stop losses to me.

Good call, that was my thoughts too - Especially given the random parcel sizes etc.

Still fairly scary though, and a little bit disappointing!..

[evilroyrule]

fundamentals still there, and hopefully i have to find a home for some irn money soon, so imo still represents excellent value. might just take a punt that the euro partner (cf eurovision) ann. comes before xmas.

[impacman]

I'm thinking it dropped a bit, some stops got triggered and it snowballed from there.

Edit: I've just checked the trades throughout the day, within 3 minutes starting at 1:47pm (Sydney time) it went from 87.5 down to 79.5 with the price drops only a few seconds apart, then quickly climbed back up again within 6 minutes, looks like stop losses to me.

Thanks as well Meesham. Amazing the speed at which it happened and then corrected.

[meesham]

No problem, I'm still a novice at this though so I could be completely wrong :) I keep a close eye on CXS, I was holding for a couple of months then got stopped out when it hit the low 70s in October - I'd moved the stop up a couple of days beforehand for some reason and forgot to move it back to the mid-60s, I was a bit annoyed with myself to say the least. Unfortunately I'm not buying anything at the moment, but if there's another dip I could be very tempted.

[jdg]

when we began that big rise at the start of November i think we picked up quite a few traders. some have been shaken out (sorry to hear you were stopped out, meesham, and thanks for the post). as noted in post no.97, certain calls were being made to sell on news, and this appears to have happened after we heard from the MEMA.

despite the fairly significant pullback, all seems on track. i still maintain that these prices will be considered very cheap if all goes well in the next few weeks.

the trial results being presented shortly will be of interest, and then we just need one more bit of news (which i have previously promised not to talk about...).

really good to see growing interest in CXS on sharetrader.

-j

[evilroyrule]

cooking with gas today of all days. something afoot.....

[trackers]

CXS on Bloomberg


ChemGenex Says Drug Rids Leukemia From Blood of 86% of Patients


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a2UITb0CO2dU

[evilroyrule]

my two favourite things from that article:

1 The company said it would announce a partner to market the drug in Europe by December. So is this now a given? Has this already been factored into the SP by the market?

2 Kareem Abdul-Jabaar. Who could forget that hook shot and those glasses!

[evilroyrule]

oh i see! this is what was coming from friday. nice big early bids this morning too. about to retest that 1.00.

[impacman]

Gotta like that start to the day:D Good luck all....

[evilroyrule]

if this turned out to do what it says, anyone have anyidea what it could be worth? wonder drugs few and far between!

[trackers]

if this turned out to do what it says, anyone have anyidea what it could be worth? wonder drugs few and far between!

It does what it says...

The question is whether they've proved it sufficiently to the FDA.. and whether it does anything it doesn't say...!

IIRC (there's some good links to analysis around), around $5 a share if most people with the particular condition (no treatment currently) start using it, and thats just one of the drugs..

[impacman]

It does what it says...

The question is whether they've proved it sufficiently to the FDA.. and whether it does anything it doesn't say...!

IIRC (there's some good links to analysis around), around $5 a share if most people with the particular condition (no treatment currently) start using it, and thats just one of the drugs..

Very hard to pick a possible SP in the future but the $5/share mark sounds about right if everything went really well. To be honest bio's periodically surge but I like to try and stick to reality. Somewhere between $3 and $5 is quite possible if approval is given and a Euro partner is found.

Disc: Treat everything i say with a grain of salt as I am just guessing as well.:D

[trackers]

Very hard to pick a possible SP in the future but the $5/share mark sounds about right if everything went really well. To be honest bio's periodically surge but I like to try and stick to reality. Somewhere between $3 and $5 is quite possible if approval is given and a Euro partner is found.

Disc: Treat everything i say with a grain of salt as I am just guessing as well.:D

The valuation I read was:

But Chemgenex’s basic equation remains the same:
1.) There are 5000 identified chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) patients worldwide carrying the T315I mutation for which Chemgenex is seeking approval to market Omapro;

2.) Regulatory approval seems as certain as it has been for any drug given Chemgenex’s data and the extraordinary amount of independent data demonstrating the efficacy of Omapro like compounds in treating CML; and

3.) A conservative price estimate for Omapro of $US30,000 per year per patient, based onthe price of Gleevec. That gives a market size of $US150 million year, which translates into a profit of $US75million based on a 50 percent free cash-flow. Based on profit multiples of 15-25 times, this
gives a share price of $US5.75 ($A6.70) to $US9.50 ($A11.00) once a profit of $US75 million is achieved. But these are back-of-the-envelope numbers and Chemgenex isn’t making $US75 million a year.
The numbers can be refined by factoring-in that about 80 percent of T315I carriers are likely to benefit from Omapro and licencing the product in Europe will see some value slip to the licensee, while the fact that first Omapro sales are a year away will reduce net present value. On the other hand, the drug is likely to cost more than $US50,000 a year, rather than $US30,000, based on the prices of second line CML treatments Sprycel and Tasigna.

http://www.biotechdaily.com.au/media/backissues/2009%20September/BD%20Biotech%20Daily%20September%209.pdf

----

I personally thought that assuming that EVERY patient worldwide would get on board was stretching it a bit, and profit multiples of 15-20 seem a bit ridiculous... But this is tempered by the very low assumed price of the drug $30,000 which I've been led to believe is about half what it will actually be.

Its also assuming a nil value for the rest of the company's drugs, IP and other assets

[jdg]

all looking good, but it is struggling to close over $1. it's tried a few times now but always closes below. not sure what the TA exponents would say about this (i'd be pleased to hear from anybody), but the fundamentals keep firming. i think more trial results are due out tomorrow from the 203 study (those failing multiple treatments), so perhaps that will prove to be a successful catalyst.

-j

[impacman]

Just the announcement we have been waiting for - Euro partner announced. Hospira - seem to b a multinational although i have not heard of them before. Let's see what the market thinks of this:) Will get initial payment of approximately $18m aud and then up to $119+m aud based on milestone and then royalty payments once commenrcialised. All good really.

Good luck all holders!

Here is the link:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091214/pdf/31mq3lx1l55q3c.pdf

[evilroyrule]

thank christ for that. i have been busy making xmas presents for the children out of plastic bottles due to no money. hopefully i can buy some wobbly eyes to stick on them now. the bottles, not the children. i have 500.00 on pakistan to win at 15.00. nz are horrible batting 2nd. yes, unrelated i know. too many hayfever pills. my fingers are all jingly.

[impacman]

thank christ for that. i have been busy making xmas presents for the children out of plastic bottles due to no money. hopefully i can buy some wobbly eyes to stick on them now. the bottles, not the children. i have 500.00 on pakistan to win at 15.00. nz are horrible batting 2nd. yes, unrelated i know. too many hayfever pills. my fingers are all jingly.

You will probably be able to afford some cheesy grins to stick alonside (well below) the wobbly eyes if the market reacts as i expect it to. I am deciding whether to listen to the cricket - don't want to jinx the boys. while i would like the BC's to win i suspect your punt will provide some interesting times over the next day or so - fortune favours the brave (or something like that).

Come on ASX open.

[trackers]

[quote=impacman;285757]Just the announcement we have been waiting for - Euro partner announced. Hospira - seem to b a multinational although i have not heard of them before. Let's see what the market thinks of this:) Will get initial payment of approximately $18m aud and then up to $119+m aud based on milestone and then royalty payments once commenrcialised. All good really./quote]

I agree :) Excellent news - Also provides further reassurance that this product really does have the goods

[evilroyrule]

fairly muted response i have to say. im off to listen to cricket on the old wireless. sharemarket just doesnt want to get going.

[COLIN]

Well, the market certainly "bought on the rumour and sold on the fact." What a disappointment.

Hopefully saner investors will stick around for the bounce back upward.

[jdg]

this is terrific news. it's difficult to assess the deal fully without all of the details, but the upfront payment should be enough to launch omapro in the US – and was roughly what i was expecting. i must tip my hat to Greg Collier and his team. they have followed through very well. the market response has been muted, but CXS is always a little slow in responding to news for whatever reason. i truly believe it will take off from here. the derisking that comes with this announcement is massive, in my view. we are yet to get approvals, of course, and they are the final hurdles, but i think the handbrake has been taken off and we will surge from here. i believe the sp will be closer to $2 than $1 shortly. it should be a great ride. nice work i-man and other holders.

-j

[impacman]

this is terrific news. it's difficult to assess the deal fully without all of the details, but the upfront payment should be enough to launch omapro in the US – and was roughly what i was expecting. i must tip my hat to Greg Collier and his team. they have followed through very well. the market response has been muted, but CXS is always a little slow in responding to news for whatever reason. i truly believe it will take off from here. the derisking that comes with this announcement is massive, in my view. we are yet to get approvals, of course, and they are the final hurdles, but i think the handbrake has been taken off and we will surge from here. i believe the sp will be closer to $2 than $1 shortly. it should be a great ride. nice work i-man and other holders.

-j

Back at you jdg. I agree - great announcement particularly given my inherent expectation that biotechs will almost always underdeliver in terms of timeframes. Greg and co have certainly done it well and regardless of our (possible) bias this really gives the company some serious credibility (as Tracker said). I think our original sp musings are very real - the upside is the complete randomness associated with good biotechs that are picked up in the US. I don't think there have been too many on the ASX (let alone NZX). Great stuff all holders - hang on for the rise over the next 6 months or so (hopefully less:D).

I-man

[jdg]

when i started this thread in april (and spelt the name wrong), my main concern was the lack of a partner. now we have one and what appears to be a very good deal. it's more than a one bagger for me thus far and i think it's really only just beginning. this is now a great bet. much, much better than evilroyrule's punt against the black caps... i think we'll make a killing on this one. i think the next few days will see us power past $1 (and the test will be a draw - although i see yousuf is out...can the kiwi's do it?).

-j

[evilroyrule]

hey, leave my mad punting skills alone? what odds you prepared to offer against it?


footnote: doh. shld have checked the score at stumps before wading into that one. never mind. if they put another 100 on, its all on imo with their wrist spinner and our know frailty on day 5. anyhoo, well done chaps on cxs.

[jdg]

one would be as mad as the north shore mayor to back against the possibility of a black caps batting collapse, but i think we have a better (albeit slim) chance of winning the test. an inspired spell of bowling by somebody in the morning and we're in with a sniff. although about the only thing certain about tomorrow is the fact the cricket will mean my levels of work production will be average at best.

-j

[evilroyrule]

good to see we held the 1.00, if only just!

so my bet turned out to be a loser, hey, we all knew that yesterday! i cant back a winner at the mo, mpo, cfe, etc. nevermind, at least cxs is bouncing around.

[Footsie]

Anyone looking at CXS?

Yup I am..

and l like it.

[impacman]

Good to see you on board Footsie - hopefully will be a good ride for you! Evil pity about the cricket, weather beat everyone. I think your bet on this one is looking safer by the day.

[evilroyrule]

hey thanks pacman, im not fussed about the cricket. was just something to distract me from my ever deflating portfolio. be boring if they only went up!

[jdg]

well, i must say i am rather stunned and equally baffled that the sp has not shot up. volumes, however, remain very healthy and i maintain my call that it will go northward in the short term. all the ducks are now in a row and this stock looks terrific. i couldn't be more comfortable with my holding. pleased to see we have another holder; welcome to the party, Footsie, i hope we have much to celebrate through the holiday period. i also hope we have a couple of cricket wins, evilroyrule... a beautiful day in the garden city today, long may that continue, too.

-j

[Footsie]

i've been adding to my position....but dont want to go "all in" till im convinced the seller hanging around the $1.00 mark is done.

tight range now of 95c to 1.00 could go either way. but odds looking like a break higher.

[jdg]

yeah, i agree it looks like someone's off-loading a large position. i have plenty at stake, but i would be buying more if i had funds available. i note that Huntly's upgraded their target price (to $1.60, from memory) on the back of the Hospira deal.

-j

[evilroyrule]

hi jdg, the sun shining always makes a diff. anyone noticed in past weeks how asx almost doing the opposite to dow? today perfect example.

im still smarting over my mhl foray and direct brokings unwillingness to help. if i had any surplus funds they wld be applied here.

happy new year everyone, hope the new year is kind to you and your investments.

[jdg]

anyone noticed in past weeks how asx almost doing the opposite to dow? today perfect example.



i hope that's not the case today, evilroyrule. health care stocks have led the charge on wall street. perhaps this sentiment will be enough to take CXS over the $1 barrier that has proven so tough to crack. i'll stick my nose out and say that it will. any other punters wish to have a prediction?

-j

[COLIN]

i hope that's not the case today, evilroyrule. health care stocks have led the charge on wall street. perhaps this sentiment will be enough to take CXS over the $1 barrier that has proven so tough to crack. i'll stick my nose out and say that it will. any other punters wish to have a prediction?

-j
I'm with you. Ever the optimist!

[jdg]

we are due a few really big days on the back of the tremendous news of late. today is the first of those days. i've rubbed the shamrock, consulted with the gods, i have a pocket full of rabbit's ears, 11 of my fingers are crossed, i've thrown two tonne of salt over my left shoulder, i've locked every black cat in the neighbourhood inside and i'm currently searching for a goat to offer as sacrifice. yip, today is the day.

-j

[evilroyrule]

see......us says up, asx says down. stoopid markets all bungo.

my pick for the nzx next year is allied farmers. they are dressing up their finance arm to actually sell it on and get back to their core business. just trying to figure when to buy. im picking between 1 and 2cps.???

[jdg]

it's my fault. i said rabbits ears, but it's meant to be rabbits feet...feet, jdg, feet!

interesting that the volume, so far at least, is pretty modest. let's see what the afternoon brings.

-j

[COLIN]

It often seems to me that when there is a worthwhile uptick in the DOW, of late, it is the bluer chips that seem to get most of the attention in this part of the world, and the tiddlers get neglected. Just a feeling I have, based on the performance of the small-caps in my portfolio versus the big boys.

[evilroyrule]

it's my fault. i said rabbits ears, but it's meant to be rabbits feet...feet, jdg, feet!

interesting that the volume, so far at least, is pretty modest. let's see what the afternoon brings.

-j

oh jdg, how that made me laugh. too many voltarens today, been in lala land most of it, but through my haze of semi consciousness laughed out loud at your ears vs feet. terrible pattern of prescribtion drug abuse emerging on my part. still, gotta do something to liven things ups. my stocks are dead as a doornail.

[jdg]

well, evilroyrule, those voltarens were much better fun that CXS today. volumes increased in the arvo but we remain at a standstill. i'm retiring from making predictions, but remain very confident in the short term. too much potential in this one for it to stay at these prices.

-j

[Phaedrus]

Unlax guys. You are holding a stock in a nice uptrend - give it a bit of room to breathe eh? Stop sweating the small stuff. Current price action is well above all 3 indicators shown here. This is a lightly traded stock so don't worry too much about volume fluctuations.

What do you know about resistance? It is often found at round numbers. $1 is a nice round figure - right? They don't come any rounder than that.

You should have been expecting resistance at $1 - not be fretting about it!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CXS1222.gif

[PhaedrusFollower]

Ok Phaedrus,

I have built my first ever chart and it looks a bit like yours...so I will buy CXS tomorrow on open at 97.5 and practice my chart skills on this (given the uptrend is so clear at the moment I should get time to predict my SELL point).

I am using Incredible Charts. It has taken me a few hours to get something that looks "similar" to yours...and presently, only have the indicators you have included...although am tempted to have an OBV and RSI as well, but not confident I understand them well enough yet.

So, for my own educational purposes, I also added a 9 day MA, and a 21 day... as well as your 80 day. 9 day would have had me buy and sell 3 times this month (that's telling me - the low volumes are making too much volatility so ignore 9 day)...21 day MA would have had me out on 11 Dec at 93c...

So that leaves the Trailing stop. I have set a 20% trailing stop (seems closer than yours).

So finally - could I please ask you to confirm for me the SELL indicators I need to watch for.

Thank you very much Phaedrus, I won't follow you, but I will learn from you if that's ok.

PF.

[COLIN]

Phaedrus: Many thanks for your reassuring words, and your wise counsel. Socrates would be proud of you.

[evilroyrule]

Unlax guys. You are holding a stock in a nice uptrend - give it a bit of room to breathe eh? Stop sweating the small stuff. Current price action is well above all 3 indicators shown here. This is a lightly traded stock so don't worry too much about volume fluctuations.

What do you know about resistance? It is often found at round numbers. $1 is a nice round figure - right? They don't come any rounder than that.

You should have been expecting resistance at $1 - not be fretting about it!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CXS1222.gif

Phaedrus on a sunny day! more relaxing than Valium. Thanks big Phaddy. Have a good break.

[jdg]

thanks so much for making a return to the thread, Phaedrus, greatly appreciated. you have a remarkable way of putting things into perspective and giving a very analytic commentary. the sp has doubled since your last graph (post 10), and i hope to see you back when it has done that again and i am concerned about resistance at $2... but I’m sure I speak for everyone when i say that any contributions of yours along the way would be most welcome.

looking at your graph, when it breaks resistance it tends to run quite hard, and this i look forward to occurring again soon. i guess on the back of recent news i was expecting it to go, but your reminder of patience is well timed. in your first graph you noted the sharp rise in OBV, which when I bought in was the only buy signal. through my untrained eyes, it appears as though that has been maintained. from memory average volumes were not much more that 200k per day but are now over 500k, do I hear you correctly saying that volumes are not an issue now? i would have thought that was significant but, as you are more than aware, TA is not my forte.

i note you have produced a disciple in Phaedrusfollower, welcome aboard. this stock is gaining a good deal of Sharetrader interest now, which is great. I look forward to your posts as you learn from the master. i suspect there’ll be numerous people on this thread (including me) who will pick up a few things as we watch you learn.

thanks again, Phaedrus, your contribution to the forum is tremendous.

-j

[Phaedrus]

I will buy CXS tomorrow on open at 97.5....CXS is a strong Hold - but that doesn't make it a Buy right now. It may never break through the resistance at $1. It might sit just below it in a trading range for years. It could try repeatedly to break through, fail, and begin a long downtrend. In short, just below resistance is not a good place to buy any stock. If you want to buy CXS, it would be better to pay a few cents more when/if it breaks above the $1 resistance, or wait for some other Buy signal.
In summary :-
(1) You are buying in the absence of any buy signal.
(2) You are buying just below resistance, rather than just above support.
(3) "Retail" investors buy at the Open. Pros buy/sell at the Close.
(4) CXS is in a short-term downtrend. Who knows how far it will run?
(5) Take a look at this short-term chart. Notice how, while the price made a new high, the RSI didn't. This is a Bearish divergence and means that in the short term, CXS is likely to fall. It has already.
(6) Technically, the right thing to do just now is wait.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CXS1223.gif

[evilroyrule]

(3) "Retail" investors buy at the Open. Pros buy/sell at the Close.


can someone explain the logic behind this? is it because there is nearly a days trading to evaluate trends etc?

[drillfix]

(3) "Retail" investors buy at the Open. Pros buy/sell at the Close.

can someone explain the logic behind this? is it because there is nearly a days trading to evaluate trends etc?

ER,

Primarily or more with ASX 100 stocks and more so on the NASDAQ and NYSE as to every other Major exchange in the world.

Why? Because you have what is called Market Makers who act as Hammers and Gatekeepers. They provide the flow of Accumulation and Distribution of shares. They also need to be seen at the bid and for the stock they are registered as they must appear continuously in the buy and sell of a stock along with appearing for 5 seconds at a bid and ask X amount of times of the day.

Now, more shares are trade after hours that are not seen at times and when stocks open, it gets called "amateur hour" for the first hour, because retail dudes are impatient by nature, they are part of the Herd, therefore either buy or sell their holdings etc etc during the "Open".

Now, this gives the Market Makers and Pro's and idea of what volume there is and which direction things are moving in. Of course, the market makers make money out of knowing full well the retail army wish to see a stock go this way or that way and make money by Squeezing or Rocking a stock in a certain direction.

Once the retail guy commits to buy and is in, the MM or Insto's will then push the price in the opposite direction making the little guy panic, or to trigger stops, once a range is set, it will head back upwards (or down depending on previous direction) and the same thing can and will occur.


Now as it gets to the end of the day, many Insto's and MM's, Pro's etc, DO NOT HOLD or usually Carry a stock over night, so they dump their stocks into the market or after market auction.


I probably have missed quite a bit of explaining but there is a brief summary that at least gives some in sight.

Hope this helps~!

[evilroyrule]

drilly, thats awesome. man, i am so naive. i really find that side of the whole industry fascinating. what a small cog in the machine we are.

drilly im off. all the best to you and your shares for the new year. i have enjoyed reading your posts this year. i reckon next year our aim shld be to get a few together and start up our own company to float. if you think about it collectively the skills of some of those on here are insane, we got professionals from all areas, it would certainly be an interesting exercise!

[jdg]

yeah, cheers, drillfix, that was a great response. it's creeping up toward that resistance mark today. what did phaed jnr end up doing? and where are you i-man? enjoying the sun i hope. i take it from your post ER that you are off for a holiday? hope you enjoy that. keep up the meds and we'll see ya on your return.

-j

[PhaedrusFollower]

CXS is a strong Hold - but that doesn't make it a Buy right now. It may never break through the resistance at $1. It might sit just below it in a trading range for years. It could try repeatedly to break through, fail, and begin a long downtrend. In short, just below resistance is not a good place to buy any stock. If you want to buy CXS, it would be better to pay a few cents more when/if it breaks above the $1 resistance, or wait for some other Buy signal.
In summary :-
(1) You are buying in the absence of any buy signal.
(2) You are buying just below resistance, rather than just above support.
(3) "Retail" investors buy at the Open. Pros buy/sell at the Close.
(4) CXS is in a short-term downtrend. Who knows how far it will run?
(5) Take a look at this short-term chart. Notice how, while the price made a new high, the RSI didn't. This is a Bearish divergence and means that in the short term, CXS is likely to fall. It has already.
(6) Technically, the right thing to do just now is wait.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CXS1223.gif

Thanks Phaedrus for taking time to explain to me the error in my ways... Unfortunately - because I am not yet a "Pro" - I DID buy on open at .98 ...oops! Then this afternoon I read your post. But that's how we learn!

(1) You are buying in the absence of any buy signal.

Apart from the resistance problem, which I now fully understand and appreciate, my buy signal was the fact that the sp was in a continuining uptrend and there were no sell signals... and I couldn't hold...cause I didnt have...

(2) You are buying just below resistance, rather than just above support.

This is a very valuable lesson. One I will hold onto closely, thanks.

(3) "Retail" investors buy at the Open. Pros buy/sell at the Close.

Another great point (nicely explained above also thanks) for those of us who are finding our feet!

(4) CXS is in a short-term downtrend. Who knows how far it will run?

So if I draw a line across the 2 peaks which I assume are the downtrend you refer to one at $1, and 98.5c then it broke through that downtrend on Monday when it went back up to 97.5, which is one "buy" signal...am I right or completely wrong?

Thank you very much for the chart - I looked up bearish divergence and will keep an eye out for that in the future!

So many lessons learnt in my first charting forray...with every mistake, I feel more technically competent.

That $1 resistance is hanging in there!

[jdg]

good to have you on board, P Jnr, i'll leave the TA for others but the fundamentals of this stock are first class. i think you'll make a bundle on it.

-j

[Phaedrus]

So if I draw a line across the 2 peaks which I assume are the downtrend you refer to one at $1, and 98.5c then it broke through that downtrend on Monday when it went back up to 97.5, which is one "buy" signal...am I right or completely wrong?You are right to some extent in that a trendline drawn as you describe would have been broken but this would have been an unconfirmed trendline (only 2 points of contact) and there was no confirmation from other indicators - so, no buy signal. Two peaks, with the second below the first, do not constitute a downtrend until price action drops below the low between them.
A downtrend is defined as a series of lower lows and lower highs. The minimum requirement therefore is a Lower Low and a Lower High. This sounds more complex than it is. It's easy to see on a chart, as below.
A stock can break a trendline while still remaining in a downtrend, just as a downtrend can be ended by a subsequent uptrend without necessarily breaking the trendline. While related, they are quite different concepts. Hope this helps!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CXSb1223.gif

[PhaedrusFollower]

Got it, thanks Ph!

[impacman]

Hi all. Have been a little busy trying to clear things out at work prior to Xmas. Half a day today and that will be about it for me. CXS is looking good and 2010 will bring FDA approval (rabbits feet, 11 fingers etc crossed:D).

Thanks heaps to everyone for the general support, comaradery, info and laughs that is what ST is all about - to all posters and threads. As for this thread it is certainly a goody and I think you should take a bow jdg for your lead in things cxs. Has been a great ride and I look forward to more of it with everyone in 2010. Have a great break.

Cheers,

I-man

[jdg]

yeah, i agree it looks like someone's off-loading a large position.
-j

we were right, Footsie, Orbis has been offloading and this has certainly helped to ensure the sp has stagnated despite the good news. let's hope they've finished now and we can continue on our merry way.

hope everybody had a good break.

-j

[Footsie]

I dont think Orbis have finished.... there is an algo seller in there.

But there are quite a few people watching this stock for a break of 1.00. me included with the intention of buying.

I'd suggest that if we are to break 1.00 it will take a decent day of 500k+ volume.

Its been in such a tight range for the past few weeks 95-1.00 that a break will probably signal a 10c move either way.

I am tempted to take a big chunk outa the guy at 99

[evilroyrule]

who got the low down on orbis? who are these guys? arent they the same crowd who have been loading up on nexus (nbs) all the way down, and now looking to offload a certainty in cxs? looks like do the opposite to them and be in for a good year...

[jdg]

hey ER, they gave notice on the 31 Dec of a change in substantial holdings. they own a bundle. they have sold around 3m and still have over 25m (just under 9 percent of the company). how many more they intend to sell is anyone's guess, but you'd think if they were going to get rid of a much larger bundle than they already have they would find a willing buyer and not do it on market. time will tell, but certainly the sp would be a lot higher if they weren't offloading... here's the bully on them if you're interested.

http://www.orbisfunds.com/

they seem to have done pretty well, to be honest.

-j

[evilroyrule]

while i dont have 100k to throw around at mo, im tempted to take out the 98 line and see where it runs. i wonder if its worth on a punt......

[drillfix]

im tempted to take out the 98 line and see where it runs.

If it were me thinking what your thinking, I would wait until it breaks past 102 or 106 and then think about entry. As right now, its like a flip of the coin so why not have probability on your side for support then to be $1.00 rather than it being currently resistance at $1.00.

[evilroyrule]

If it were me thinking what your thinking, I would wait until it breaks past 102 or 106 and then think about entry. As right now, its like a flip of the coin so why not have probability on your side for support then to be $1.00 rather than it being currently resistance at $1.00.

coZ im sick of frickn waiting!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

technically of course you are correct.....

[Footsie]

its like when you have a pot of boiling water with a lid on it...... all that steam is building up pressure

Eventually, the lid starts to bobble and if enough pressure is exerted.... Pop the lid flies off and all that steam is released......

Or, a gust of wind comes through and blows out the gas.....water stops boiling and the lid stays on.

I've heard Orbis are still selling, but if it does manage to trade at 1.00 i think the buying will overwhelm them in a stampede

if we all bandy together, for $150k we can get this thing trading at 1.00 and that will bring other punters in......anyone keen?

[drillfix]

its like when you have a pot of boiling water with a lid on it...... all that steam is building up pressure

Eventually, the lid starts to bobble and if enough pressure is exerted.... Pop the lid flies off and all that steam is released......

Or, a gust of wind comes through and blows out the gas.....water stops boiling and the lid stays on.

I've heard Orbis are still selling, but if it does manage to trade at 1.00 i think the buying will overwhelm them in a stampede

if we all bandy together, for $150k we can get this thing trading at 1.00 and that will bring other punters in......anyone keen?

LOL Footsie,

Only if we could put some of your expressions into a TA package :p

Tell ya what, lend me 50K once it breaks a dollar + 2c and I will help you guys keep moving this, but if yo are saying somebody is selling off, then those orders could keep appearing and then re-appearing, again and again.

Better still, why not just go on over to Hot copper and start a rumour like the rest of the Rampers over there, that will help it move into a breakout position :rolleyes:

[jdg]

i share the frustrations. i am aghast that this hasn't run after the euro deal was signed, but i guess we didn't figure on orbis selling down. their reasons could be many, but how long they will continue selling is anyone's guess too. the only pleasing thing is that there have been plenty of buyers who, like us, see a great deal more upside to come. in my view, it's only a matter of time... but let's hope it's sooner rather than later.

-j

[Footsie]

Orbis are selling CXS and buying NBS... nuf said

[evilroyrule]

im getting a bit scratchy. this feels kinda like cue all over....heaps of potential but no action. bit like my wife really...

[jdg]

i'm a little scratchy, too, ER, but i don't think we have to worry about this drifting for too long. the timeframes are pretty tight.

FDA decision will soon be on the horizon and that will send her one way or the other very fast. i still maintain, however, that we will be well up from where we are now before then.

i-man and i always talked about this being a boom or bust stock, and i certainly believe it still is.

however, since this thread started nine months ago, it has been substantially derisked. yip, we may need a little patience, but it won’t be too long before we know whether it will be rewarded or not.

-j

[Footsie]

Good to see CXS so solid on a day like today

[COLIN]

Good to see CXS so solid on a day like today

Yes. ACL too (jdg).

[jdg]

a great compact summary of things (with thanks to sassy42).

http://www.evaluatepharma.com/Universal/View.aspx?type=Story&id=204487&isEPVantage=yes

-j

[Footsie]

Thanks JDG

Goods summary


Any thoughts on where it might trade if approval is given on the 10th?
I suspect there might be a price creep closer to that date.

my guess is taht assuming its trade at 1.00
it might move to 1.20?

[jdg]

Thanks JDG

Goods summary


Any thoughts on where it might trade if approval is given on the 10th?
I suspect there might be a price creep closer to that date.

my guess is taht assuming its trade at 1.00
it might move to 1.20?

hey Footsie, i was anticipating a significant move north of $1 when we got a distribution deal for europe, so i am astounded we are still below that mark given the deal appears better than expected.

the FDA’s oncology panel recommendation will be even more significant, and it's less than a month away. given the chance of success is high, one would expect the sp to appreciate in anticipation of it. i would not be at all surprised to see us break $1 before that time and surge on a positive outcome.

i would think at the very least $1.20. i'll stick my neck out and say $1.40+ one week after the recommendation. although that is a significant way from where we are now, i think CXS has a good deal of catching up to do, and the initial review by the oncology panel appears to be a good bet to act as the catalyst.

of the two valuations I’ve seen, Huntley values CXS at $1.60 with “significant upside if the company demonstrates efficacy in other applications” (which it’s doing via the 203 study), and bioshares which valued the company, about six months ago, at around $5 (if only…).

-j

[Footsie]

jdg
when do you think the price creep might start?

i guess once that big seller lifts their foot.

[jdg]

jdg
when do you think the price creep might start?

i guess once that big seller lifts their foot.

mate, i predicted that it would have started by now, so my crystal ball is clearly not working too well...

in saying that, the meeting is on Feb 10, and that is fast approaching. i still maintain that CXS won't be sub $1 before that, and on a positive recommendation should shunt solidly north of there (and, a week from then, we'll see if i was too ambitious with my $1.40 prediction in its immediate aftermath).

one would have to assume that the publicity surrounding Australia’s first biotech to go it alone and get approval (although Feb 10 is just a recommendation) from the FDA will be very significant. i envisage the company being framed to encapsulate the Aussie battler, and an inspiring business success story, and that makes for great media (and a potentially a huge profile for CXS).

there is still a risk this could all collapse, of course. the FDA may say, ‘nah, try again’. but if all goes to plan – and it looks increasingly likely it will do so – there will be nothing holding this back from being the multi-bagger many people have foreseen.

-j

[trackers]

Sold some a while back at 1.04, and just got them all back at 95.5c...

Wonder if CXSO (22mil, expiry 12Feb) is a factor in the recent drag..

[jdg]

i'm planning to put more money where my mouth is. i am looking to add to my holding before the oncology panel meeting. it's just about getting the timing right. with the markets heading down, i'm holding off and hoping for a cheaper entry (is sub 90s possible?). but given that feb 10 is not too far away, my window of opportunity is rather limited.

with regard to timing, i am conflicted by the knowledge offered by Phaedrus's charts (which i greatly appreciate) and the opportunity on offer.

there are many reasons to feel confident about the panel's decision, not least of which derives from the Hospira deal. at the risk of stating the obvious, Hospira's due diligence would have been thorough, and they paid nearly $20m as an upfront payment - a not inconsiderable sum - in a show of their confidence. moreover, bidding was said to have been competitive, so more than one co found the prospect of approval likely.

Apart from the compelling data from the 202 study, the other fact to all of this is the data showing that Omapro killed 90% of cancer stem cells (in a mouse model) in vitro. by comparison, Glivec, killed just 9%. although any suggestion of a cure is a long way off, one can’t help but think the panel will think about future opportunities for a cure that Omparo may offer given its mechanism of action is completely different to the drugs currently on offer. moreover, those with the t35i mutation, have nowhere to turn but Omapro. sure, the panel's decision is not binding on the FDA, but it's a tick in the right box, and i believe it's one the market will not ignore.

to me, it is a calculated gamble that the panel will give Omapro the thumbs up, and the market will respond (although if the markets are still trending down, my $1.40 may be too ambitious) and consequently there is an easy and healthy return to be made within a fortnight.

now let's just see how much i have to pay...

-j

[Footsie]

JDG

I have my theory on why CXS is weak... as given the proximity of news it should be holding.

I suspect there is a large institutional holder who has got together with there investment "committee" and have decided to reduce their position before the 10 feb to manage risk.
they dont want to get a please explain from their bosses if the drug is declined the stock tanks and it whacks their p/f.

this way if the approval goes thru they make some money and if it fails they dont look like idiots

[STRAT]

Hi J.
4 days ago it dropped through the trend line ( started in March ) but has gapped up 3 days in a row. Not bad considering what the Market is doing. Id be waiting till it breakes through $1 but if the news you are expecting is good that might happen pretty quick.

[jdg]

JDG

I have my theory on why CXS is weak... as given the proximity of news it should be holding.

I suspect there is a large institutional holder who has got together with there investment "committee" and have decided to reduce their position before the 10 feb to manage risk.
they dont want to get a please explain from their bosses if the drug is declined the stock tanks and it whacks their p/f.

this way if the approval goes thru they make some money and if it fails they dont look like idiots

there has been no new notice from orbis, but if that is the case, it not a bad strategy, CXS has come a long was since the cap raising at 43c last April.

but for me, i think there's more to be made and i am happy to increase my holding. it's going to be an interesting couple of weeks.

-j

[evilroyrule]

i'm planning to put more money where my mouth is. i am looking to add to my holding before the oncology panel meeting. it's just about getting the timing right. with the markets heading down, i'm holding off and hoping for a cheaper entry (is sub 90s possible?). but given that feb 10 is not too far away, my window of opportunity is rather limited.

with regard to timing, i am conflicted by the knowledge offered by Phaedrus's charts (which i greatly appreciate) and the opportunity on offer.

there are many reasons to feel confident about the panel's decision, not least of which derives from the Hospira deal. at the risk of stating the obvious, Hospira's due diligence would have been thorough, and they paid nearly $20m as an upfront payment - a not inconsiderable sum - in a show of their confidence. moreover, bidding was said to have been competitive, so more than one co found the prospect of approval likely.

Apart from the compelling data from the 202 study, the other fact to all of this is the data showing that Omapro killed 90% of cancer stem cells (in a mouse model) in vitro. by comparison, Glivec, killed just 9%. although any suggestion of a cure is a long way off, one can’t help but think the panel will think about future opportunities for a cure that Omparo may offer given its mechanism of action is completely different to the drugs currently on offer. moreover, those with the t35i mutation, have nowhere to turn but Omapro. sure, the panel's decision is not binding on the FDA, but it's a tick in the right box, and i believe it's one the market will not ignore.

to me, it is a calculated gamble that the panel will give Omapro the thumbs up, and the market will respond (although if the markets are still trending down, my $1.40 may be too ambitious) and consequently there is an easy and healthy return to be made within a fortnight.

now let's just see how much i have to pay...

-j

hi jdg,

i came to same conclusion as you re 20 million reasons to be confident. i doubled up yesterday (not the best day)

today just shows people shld never say i told you so (unfairly aimed at mr p and his chart imo), partic
after only one day. i took a punt and will wear the consequences. but hey, its going to be fun leading up to feb 10.

if it goes through, surely your 1.40 is conservative.

if it doesnt, is it worth anything, and shld we put in place some stops so we dont lose the whole lot!

p.s without wishing to state the onbious im sure there will a high volume day shortly that will give a pretty good indication of what will happen feb 10. thats what im watching for anyhoo

[jdg]

hey, strat, long time no hear. thanks for the graph. that $1 is certainly a key level, but i sense the panel meeting represents an opportunity, and there's around 10 percent to be made between where we are now and $1. and i anticipate it going much higher. i might be wrong, but that's the way i see it. we don't have to wait long to see if i'm right or not.

-j

[jdg]

ER, if we get a thumbs down, we are in more trouble than i care to imagine... but as we're all aware, big gains always come with big risk. i am very confident that the risk/reward ratio is in our favour. i think we'll be toasting to CXS, not getting a toasting from the FDA...

-j

[jdg]

just found this

http://www.chemgenex.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/rbs-morgans-note-on-cxs-jan-2010.pdf

it's the lowest valuation (of three) that i've seen, and it's still $1.51

-j

[Footsie]

IMHO its all one fund and they have plenty of ammo left to sell

look at the depth.. on close 250 on offer at 91...... now after close..... no selling back up to 95


as we have said for weeks. soon as they finish combined with approval it will pop...probrbly to 1.20 first up then perhaps 1.50 later in the year.

if the seller is still there on the day of the positive approval..... THEY WILL GET RUN OVER>


negative... we get run over.

[evilroyrule]

hey fellas,

i think the big give away was late announcement of 22 million options to employees exercisable at 1.18 in mar 2010. what does that tell you?

[jdg]

here's another valuation, with a target price of 1.97 in 12 months.

http://bacollier.powweb.com/chemgenex/http://bacollier.powweb.com/chemgenex/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/wilsons_note_2_on_cxs_dec_20091.pdf

a really good evaluation based on the Hospira deal. logic suggests we have some catching up to do. i bought a small parcel on friday at .91c, but i'm still planning on buying more. i don't like to be shopping in a downward market, but i almost certainly will.

my logic and my instincts are in a furious battle for my wallet.

-j

[ratkin]

Interesting that there are so many people talking this one up

[evilroyrule]

here's another valuation, with a target price of 1.97 in 12 months.

http://bacollier.powweb.com/chemgenex/http://bacollier.powweb.com/chemgenex/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/wilsons_note_2_on_cxs_dec_20091.pdf

a really good evaluation based on the Hospira deal. logic suggests we have some catching up to do. i bought a small parcel on friday at .91c, but i'm still planning on buying more. i don't like to be shopping in a downward market, but i almost certainly will.

my logic and my instincts are in a furious battle for my wallet.

-j

i have stolen hoops worry beads. i am worried. i am worrying that someone is selling down (cld just be risk management) leading up to announcement. i want to use worry again in a sentence. hoops worry beads are not working. is anyone else worried?

[Footsie]

if you are worried. Sell

otherwise relax until the 10th

[jdg]

c'mon footsie, we'd have nothing much to say if we couldn't vent every now and then...

ER, things do look a bit unusual at the moment, although i remember a similar sell off from around 70c down to 50c a few months ago for no reason at all. for better or worse i'm taking the opportunity to buy (i bought more this morning at .87 and may still buy one more lot if it drops below that).

come feb 10 (feb 11 here) we should know if i'm a fool or not...

-j

[evilroyrule]

what i like jdg is that you are prepared to back yourself. and for that i hope you are handsomely rewarded. my pick is that the worrywarts are reducing just in case....

[STRAT]

what i like jdg is that you are prepared to back yourself. and for that i hope you are handsomely rewarded. my pick is that the worrywarts are reducing just in case....Yup.
Underpants. Extra large thanks :D

Good on ya J.

[jdg]

in december, Marc Sinatra said that because of his extremely high valuation of CXS he may very well be proven to be an idiot.

he's not the only one...

-j

[Novitiate]

Yep, bit worried - bought some more yesterday at 91c (despite all the sage advice in this thread) and the price headed south bout 3 mins later. Still, I was aware that I was taking a bit of a 'gamble' and hopefully the decision in a few days will be positive.

[jdg]

ok, i bought another bundle today and manged to get a few at 85c. that's it for me. now i just sit back and wait. next thursday is D-Day...

-j

[Footsie]

even I am worried now with that big player exiting? do they know something?

Mr phaedrus, would not like the big drop in OBV... in his eyes a signal to get out with the "smart money"

[soulman]

ok, i bought another bundle today and manged to get a few at 85c. that's it for me. now i just sit back and wait. next thursday is D-Day...

-j

Buying before D-Day??? Good luck to you. Maybe it's more prudent to buy after D-Day, when things are more clearer.

[ratkin]

I wouldnt worry too much about the selloff.
Im a holder of Acrux who are also awaiting expected good news, their price has been dropping too.

Anyone waiting till after d-day may have a safer entry , but they will pay much extra for it.

disc not a holder

[Phaedrus]

You guys must all be devout TA contrarians! You completely ignore obvious SELL signals - but buy in the total absence of ANY buy signals! I despair!

That Bearish divergence should have been a real "heads-up" for holders of this stock. The SELL signals began firing off left, right and centre just after that. See how the Momentum was rising? See how it then stopped rising - and began falling? See how the RSI was falling after having given a Sell signal? See how it's (unconfirmed) Sell signal was followed by a classical Bearish divergence? (That's the bad one!) See the clear break of the trendline? How much technical consensus do you guys need before you act? Not too long after the trendline break, the new downtrend was confirmed. By this point, everything had triggered SELL signals. There would be no more. Not that that stopped you guys buying, though!

I am worried now with that big player exiting - do they know something? Phaedrus would not like the big drop in OBV... in his eyes a signal to get out with the "smart money"The first example of this gave a much more timely warning, preceding even the Bearish divergence that marked the peak.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CXS24.gif

[drillfix]

Now I dont hold this stock, but I sure am keen to watch and see how this plays out.

I also have no prejudice against your investment but looking from the outside in, I tend to agree with Phaedrus on this one with the support of the Technicals that show this.

This is not a Buy/Sell/Hold police raid but rather what appears to be a alternative investing styles based on a question of what would have been the best thing to do in a given case scenario.

Again, I will be watching this one closely.

[ratkin]

Think i will wait till D day , before deciding whether to enter. With todays big market sell off , the good news is that might be able to buy in at a good price even after they announce good news

[jdg]

this is a great experiment, and the results will be in next week. did those, like me, who bought on the way down (and broke every TA rule in the book) do the right thing? or will those who have sold out, following Phaedrus, be rewarded? or will the folks, like ratkin, who will wait on the sideline and move after the news come up trumps?

great stuff.

-j