Isf, isoft group limited

[dragonz]

Currently there is a £12.7bn NHS programme to provide every patient in England with an electronic health record. But this is peanuts compared to what America, Australia, New Zealand and other Western countries potential market is as they prepare to move their draconian E-health systems into the modern era.

This is well worth watching. The future is here and ISOFT are perfectly positioned to take advantage at the dawn of this new era.

http://ehealth.johnwsharp.com/2009/05/15/linked-data-in-health-care.aspx?ref=rss





With this new Technological Revolution on its way, companies such as ISF will be the BHP's of the information Technology world.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/screencast/int...lframalpha.html


From my viewpoint I believe these times are very very exciting! And potentially very profitable to.

[lissica]

Most of the hospital Emergency Dept's I've worked in use their EDIS software which I think works great.

Their clinical management/lab results software from my experience.....sucks. This was a couple years ago when I last used it in NZ though. There was much cursing and mashing of keyboards when I worked at Midcentral Health and Capital and Coast DHB.

The best hospital software I've used is Concerto (as used in Hutt Valley DHB) which is light years ahead...it integrates everything together so much better (radiology results, lab results, discharge summaries, electronic sign offs, outpatient records).

[Junior80]

Most of the hospital Emergency Dept's I've worked in use their EDIS software which I think works great.

Their clinical management/lab results software from my experience.....sucks. This was a couple years ago when I last used it in NZ though. There was much cursing and mashing of keyboards when I worked at Midcentral Health and Capital and Coast DHB.

The best hospital software I've used is Concerto (as used in Hutt Valley DHB) which is light years ahead...it integrates everything together so much better (radiology results, lab results, discharge summaries, electronic sign offs, outpatient records).

Hi,

have not used EDIS software, but have used Concerto but did not that it was that great. If you are saying concerto is light years ahead of EDIS software, then they must be quite bad. This stock is trader's dream.

Bought in on Friday just before close. Want to paste my chart to show you guys, but I am not sure how to do it. Can someone help?

Junior80

p/s: dragonz - the links do not work. Please check them.

[dragonz]

Hi,

have not used EDIS software, but have used Concerto but did not that it was that great. If you are saying concerto is light years ahead of EDIS software, then they must be quite bad. This stock is trader's dream.

Bought in on Friday just before close. Want to paste my chart to show you guys, but I am not sure how to do it. Can someone help?

Junior80

p/s: dragonz - the links do not work. Please check them.

Hi Junior Thanks for that, I have updated the top link. Here is my 1st attemt at attaching a file.

1554

[lissica]

Hi,

have not used EDIS software, but have used Concerto but did not that it was that great. If you are saying concerto is light years ahead of EDIS software, then they must be quite bad. This stock is trader's dream.

Bought in on Friday just before close. Want to paste my chart to show you guys, but I am not sure how to do it. Can someone help?

Junior80

p/s: dragonz - the links do not work. Please check them.

EDIS is Emergency Dept software, not the same as Concerto, which is more for results and patient discharge summaries. As far as I'm concerned, EDIS works great. Some departments have even gone to complete electronic records with EDIS (all the notes typed directly into EDIS). I haven't worked at many Emergency Depts in Australia or NZ that don't use EDIS. Looks like EDIS is made by Isoft according to their website.

For inpatient software, Concerto (Orion Health)- as implemented by Hutt Valley DHB works great. I think a lot of it has to do with how it's integrated with lab results and radiology reports. In their case, you could pull up a clinical record with all that info on it, you can sign it off, and you can do all discharge summaries and copy those results on there. And the discharge summaries are automatically emailed to the patients GP.

Then you go to Wgtn Hospital or P Nth Hosp and spend half the time trying to get the damn thing to work (if you can find a free computer)! And when you try to pull up clinic letters etc, the layout looks like someone vomited the information on the screen. I'm pretty sure it was Isoft.

That may have changed now though...it's 2 1/2 years since I worked in NZ.

[mondograss]

iSOFT has a huge product base these days, including a product called HealthViews which is basically their answer to Concerto. Fairly widely used in NZ. It was written by many of the same people that did Concerto in the first place. There's a lot of iSoft products that have been very popular in Europe that haven't really made it to NZ\Aus yet, so with the merger of IBA and iSOFT a year and a bit ago, we are starting to see that product base come down under.

[Lizard]

Broke out of a long held trading range yesterday - although substantially all the price action took place over just a few minutes without obvious trigger, so possibly a fat-fingered trade. Prior day announcement of US acquisition as potential entry to US market as well as increasing systems interoperability may have been a factor.

For the record, here are links to the threads under the old name - IBA Health:
Anyone following IBA? (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=396&highlight=iba)
IBA - A big takeover finalised (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5407&highlight=iba)

Been a good trader in the past, but potential also for a long term buy-and-hold if they convert their growth strategy from "acquisitive" to "organic" and start directing cashflow to dividends (as indicated).

[Lizard]

Up steadily to 90.5cps. Good, steady result out yesterday, in line with projections and finally demonstrating the expected strong cashflow from operations.

Based on the clear guidance in their outlook statement, it looks as though underlying NPAT should increase by about 30% for FY2010 and forward P/E sitting around 11.2. My view of current fair value is around $1.30, but I'm comfortable holding at considerably higher levels if it gets there this year.

[buns]

Good luck on these guys meeting that FY target..

How ever, all of the downfalls here are one off (FX and investment in USA), and non operational.

Although these losses were larger than anticipated (natural hedge with revenue wasn’t effective), the operation revenue jumped up nicely. I was very happy to see there reliance on the NHS lessen substantially (more than halved), and proof of their brand spreading right through the UK, meeting the 6-10% growth objective. This growth now has me as a firm believer than even if I-soft lose NHS they will be better off bidding directly with hospitals, generating more revenue that the indirect NHS approach.

With this strong model in place, and countries ready to splash heavily (USA $33b) in health IT, I’m liking I-Soft as it closes in on 50c..

Thoughts?

[COLIN]

Good luck on these guys meeting that FY target..

How ever, all of the downfalls here are one off (FX and investment in USA), and non operational.

Although these losses were larger than anticipated (natural hedge with revenue wasn’t effective), the operation revenue jumped up nicely. I was very happy to see there reliance on the NHS lessen substantially (more than halved), and proof of their brand spreading right through the UK, meeting the 6-10% growth objective. This growth now has me as a firm believer than even if I-soft lose NHS they will be better off bidding directly with hospitals, generating more revenue that the indirect NHS approach.

With this strong model in place, and countries ready to splash heavily (USA $33b) in health IT, I’m liking I-Soft as it closes in on 50c..

Thoughts?

The graphs look shocking, and the price is down on a markedly positive day for the ASX. Doesn't look like a "buy" to me, Buns. Save your pennies!

[ratkin]

Had some of these when they were IBA .
Sold out a few years ago when i realised management couldnt be trusted.
One of their favourite tricks was rehashing announcements, never a good sign

[buns]

The graphs look shocking, and the price is down on a markedly positive day for the ASX. Doesn't look like a "buy" to me, Buns. Save your pennies!

Ha thanks for the tip

Yes this has been shooting down for a long time. I will only be looking to enter once she rises up on strong OBV.

Just saying, I like the fundamentals and think it’s worth a look once this happens.

[Lizard]

Well I think ISF is a gift at these prices. Guess you'll have to make up your own mind though. It's only been good for trading in the last few years though.

[Lizard]

Chart readers... is that a buy? Or is it just another bump on that nasty downtrend? TIA. :)

[drillfix]

Chart readers... is that a buy? Or is it just another bump on that nasty downtrend? TIA. :)

Hi Liz, observe the chart, and check the circles made.

http://i39.tinypic.com/2ikqst3.png

From the bottom up,
Good volume for the stock, W%7 turning up, Stochastic turned up, Oblique Resistance broken and now made into support.
The candle catches th 8ma but failed to hold past the new resistance level of around 45.5c and also fell just below the 20ma.

Cant really advise on buying a downtrending stock, although for a swing trade, it shoudl have been done on Wed maybe when it just broke above the 80 line on the W%R indicator.

Other than that, i f it continues past the 54.5 and there is some crossing 8 and 20ma's then go for it providing also market conditions are normal and there is lots of volume increasing.

Other than that, if the stock can manage to get its @ss back up past 62-66 cents then there will be more evidence for the trend reversal to be in full swing.

Anyway, not buying advice just be cautious of a potential knock back from 55c (resistance). (pretty close now).

[Lizard]

Thanks Drillfix. I've had some good trades off ISF, but the long term buy-and-hold has been a bit pitiful. Has quite a bit of potential on a fundamental basis, but a few disappointments in recent years. Recent volume has seemed quite high and with the key milestone nearing in the UK NHS programme, there might be grounds for a change in direction.. However, looking at your chart, the wick on yesterdays candle gives ground for caution.

[Serpie]

I'm keeping an eye out for a triple bottom on ISF, especially if we have a rocky June. I have't been keeping up with the fundamentals of late. Anyone know how they're going? Are you still holding Lizard?

[Lizard]

Hi Serpie. Tomorrow might be significant for ISF. They were supposed to be implementing a critical milestone on the NPfIT programme over the long weekend (UK), but so far nobody seems to know if it happened or not - rumour mill so far leans towards not, but information seems to leak slow over there. Given the delays so far and possible political agendas etc, this may be either a milestone or a roadblock in the Lorenzo roll-out under NPfIT. I did not believe it was likely that the go-live would be halted so late in the piece, but it has gone down to the wire and so becomes a gamble.

Should the roll-out be halted, ISF holders can probably expect a profit downgrade for 2010 and perhaps a significant impairment of intangibles from the iSoft acquisition. While this change may still contain opportunity for ISF, there is a lot more uncertainty and a bleak short term. On the other hand, the share price is already building in considerable uncertainty so a Morecambe Bay go-live would presumably engender a bit more confidence.

After some long, hard thought this afternoon, I decided to halve the long term holding, as I think in this instance that the short-term downside risk outweighs the short term upside risk on this outcome and the long term picture has become increasingly unclear. I was hoping the chart would have a few clues, but could find little help there - though the close may have triggered a short term sell (and the chart alone wouldn't have had any longer-term traders in at all).

[Lizard]

Well, just went and checked the traps again and news just out that they DID go live at Morecambe Bay:
http://www.e-health-insider.com/news/5951/morecambe_bay_goes_live_with_lorenzo_1.9

About now I would like to edit out the bit about having sold half my shares... but that's real life in the markets. You can hold onto something for months or even years, believing the fundamentals are right, but they are guaranteed to only come right the day you sell. Still, I doubt it will take much to buy them back.

[shasta]

Liz

You actually sold some shares, i thought you collected them :-O

[Lizard]

Haha Shasta... well every now and then I admit to trading in a few of the more jaded looking ones for something fresher...

[Lizard]

I have to say, it was the masochistic streak in me that made me answer Serpies post tonight instead of waiting until the morning when I would have known the outcome - then I could have selectively decided whether to reveal my genius in owning ISF or my genius in having sold down (depending on the outcome).

Now I will barely sleep, for fear of waking up to one of Mr P's charts, showing exactly why I should never have been in ISF until the day before yesterday when it finally triggered a buy (or something) :cool:

[buns]

I'm keeping an eye out for a triple bottom on ISF, especially if we have a rocky June. I have't been keeping up with the fundamentals of late. Anyone know how they're going? Are you still holding Lizard?

I'm the same, haven't been keeping right up with this one, except checking how Lorenzo went. There is a thread going on HC, pointing to a twitter link spelling bad news on that front..

Funny stock this one. Early this year things seemed good, yet the share price fell. Yet over the last month and a bit, its been a bit of a rock compared to the ASX all ords.

[Serpie]

Haha! Great stuff Liz.

After I asked the question I did a bit of reading, and found out how timely (by chance) my query was. It looks like there's a bit hinging on this Morecambe rollout, and earlier this evening no one had any idea of the status. I read rumours generated by Twitter of all things!

I haven't looked at your link yet, which looks to confirm that it did indeed go live. But I will follow this with interest over the next few weeks.

I see the DOW futures are in the toilet again so I may still get my triple bottom, albiet with stronger fundamentals!

[ratkin]

Morecambe Bay goes live with Lorenzo 1.9

Tags: CSC (http://www.e-health-insider.com/tag_search.cfm?tag_name=CSC&tag_type=Article) Lorenzo (http://www.e-health-insider.com/tag_search.cfm?tag_name=Lorenzo&tag_type=Article) Morecambe Bay (http://www.e-health-insider.com/tag_search.cfm?tag_name=Morecambe Bay&tag_type=Article)
01 Jun 2010
http://www.e-health-insider.com/img/morecambe-bay-logo.jpg
University Hospitals of Morecambe Bay NHS Trust has gone live with Lorenzo Release 1.9 across its five hospital sites, E-Health Insider can exclusively reveal.
The implementation of the iSoft software, a key part of the NHS National Programme for IT, was carried out by local service provider CSC.
The trust has confirmed that it has become the first acute hospital to use the Lorenzo software with patient administration functionality. The software is being used by 3,500 staff across its five hospitals for all clinical activity.
Tony Halsall, chief executive, UHMBT, said: “Becoming the first acute Trust in England to implement Lorenzo is not only fantastic news for the trust and our staff, but also for our patients.
“All of our wards were brought live by the project team in a phased manner over the Bank Holiday weekend and by the morning of Sunday 30 May 2010, every ward in each of our hospitals was using Lorenzo. We expect to complete the full implementation of Lorenzo by Thursday 3 June 2010.
The trust said that the project team has been rigorously testing and refining the system in house over the past four years.
Steve Fairclough, head of health informatics at UHBMT said: “With the launch of any new computer system, you expect to encounter teething problems that only appear after go-live.
“We have a team of people on site who are correctly equipped to both identify and fix any that may appear. I am confident in Lorenzo and also in my team who are working around the clock to implement it.”
George Nasmyth, consultant surgeon and associate medical director added: “I have been using Lorenzo to write operation notes and have found its potential considerable.
“First and foremost are the needs of our patients and new modules are being developed, including prescribing, which has the potential for immediate and accurate communication of treatment protocols between primary and secondary care with huge advantages for patients.”
The trust said that support has been on hand 24-hours a day to help staff and feedback so far has been positive.
Patricia Fenton, staff nurse in the renal unit at Westmorland General Hospital, said: "Having feared the arrival of Lorenzo for months, I have actually found the system very easy to use. The help and assistance provided by our floorwalker during the changeover actually made the whole thing an enjoyable experience."
Yvonne Anderson, staff nurse at Furness General Hospital added: ““At first, I thought Lorenzo was mind boggling but I have now mastered it. Transferring patients is much easier and I was really chuffed to be able to print out labels, wrist bands and patient front sheets from one screen – it is so much quicker.”
EHI understands that the trust plans to subsequently install Lorenzo 2.0 in its A&E department within the next two months.

[Phaedrus]

I will barely sleep, for fear of waking up to one of Mr P's charts, showing exactly why I should never have been in ISF until the day before yesterday when it finally triggered a buy (or something)You don't need me to tell you that you shouldn't be in ISF, Liz! As you said yourself, just yesterday, "the chart alone wouldn't have had any longer-term traders in at all."
I wonder if you have fallen into bad company and are now dabbling in risky pursuits like short-term trading (of downtrending stocks, no less!) I say this because your selling yesterday is more in keeping with the actions of one of those......fast people. Your mother and I don't want to encourage you to indulge in such high risk activities, but if you do, at least make sure you use a chart. Every time. No exceptions. Here is one you can use in the meantime but you know where to get them when you need more.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/ISFst.gif

Now then, here is the sort of chart a nice girl would use. Someone that does what they are told. A careful, prudent type of girl. Someone with a deep respect for the opinions of others - someone who cares what the market thinks. Liz, you should have severed all contact with ISF when its standards started slipping. You want to associate with good, sound, well thought of stocks - not losers. We really do understand that sometimes you have difficulty letting go (you were the same with your old teddy bear - remember?) but life is short, Liz - too short to stick with losers. The time might well come when ISF mends its ways, changes its trend and become a stock your Mother and I would be pleased to see you with, but in the meantime, can't you find some better stocks to play with? Lots of love, take care now........

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/ISFlt.gif

[Serpie]

That's the sort of telling off that causes rebellion Phaedrus!

Buy Liz - Buy!

What if we see that triple bottom P? Worth looking at then?

[Serpie]

What if we see that triple bottom P? Worth looking at then?

Dont answer that Phaedrus. I got hit with what I thought was a cheeky bid at 49c, so I guess I'll find out myself!

[COLIN]

Our Mr. P. has a delicious sense of humour. I'm sure he's a wonderful Grandad to his grandchildren.

Thanks for making us smile, on "such a winter's day!".

[Lizard]

We really do understand that sometimes you have difficulty letting go (you were the same with your old teddy bear - remember?

Beautifully put, Phaedrus... and of course I still have my old teddy bear! :p

[percy]

Our Mr. P. has a delicious sense of humour. I'm sure he's a wonderful Grandad to his grandchildren.

Thanks for making us smile, on "such a winter's day!".

Yes,humour on a winter's day is a delight.!!!!

[Lizard]

I am out of ISF completely now, if belatedly.

I guess even experienced investors aren't immune from disasters. This is one of mine.

I don't think all experienced investors learn to stop investing, but perhaps they all learn to shut up when they do! :)

[percy]

I have yet to hear of anyone who allways gets it right 100%.It just does not happen.If you are scared of making a mistake you would not buy a share.I have a background in retail and the good retailers are the ones who clear their bad buys quickly and put the money into good stock.Shares are no different.I was once told if you get 6 out of 10 right on the sharemarket you will make money.I think you beat that hands down.You have got 1 wrong so lets see you put that money into a winner.!!!! Your grandpop Phaedras may do you a chart before you buyMay pay to hold off asking him until his charts turn green.I am sure all of us will be interested to see what you buy!!!

[Serpie]

I am out of ISF completely now, if belatedly.

Me too Liz. Another war story to add to the sharetrading annual!

[buns]

Me too Liz. Another war story to add to the sharetrading annual!

Un lucky guys, we have all been there...

Now at 24.5c, any thoughts of re entering this dog? I think the risk reward in this one right now is leaning towards a buy..

[Serpie]

any thoughts of re entering this dog?

Not for me Buns. There's something not quite right about this one at the moment. If Lizard isn't sure where the money has gone, then I've got no hope, so it's best to stay away.

[Lizard]

It may be good buying here - would have to think the assets/business would be of interest to other players at this price.

However, I have two concerns with attempting to trade it:

1. The figures provided didn't give sufficient information to be at all sure of cashflow - in fact, based on the EBITDA figures between first and second half and on the first half investing cashflows and balance sheet, it is possible they are quite cash-stressed at the moment. The silence from the company and the fact so many funds have sold down/out makes this seem shockingly likely. This has the potential to trigger a number of nasty scenarios that are unlikely to benefit current holders.

2. There were so many things that did not stack up in that forecast with previous numbers and which raise concerns as to future revenues/profits, as well as the ability to trust management - basically, that puts ISF in the "trash-trade only" basket for now from my perspective.

As for takeover - perhaps it will happen, but most likely would have to be "friendly" to get past OCP/Management - and I doubt they would be in a hurry to accept offers at current prices until other avenues were exhausted. Also, seems possible there could be contractual complications around Lorenzo with CSC. Perhaps CSC might have some cards to play?

[buns]

A positive announcement, very well received today. Very vague though, not something you want from management who you are losing trust in. The big area as you say Lizard, around Cash flow and Debt covenants, pretty much states yes we have them in place and are alright. Nothing more.

I'm still looking at this one, if there story pans out, this stock is big value, but will hold fire until they release more detail on FY11

[Lizard]

Big rally to 29.5cps on that announcement (from low of around 24.5cps). Market was looking for a reason to rally it - and perhaps just happy that they didn't announce they're broke.

But, as you say, a bit vague from an outsiders viewpoint - probably because Board and management are still working with a large degree of uncertainty themselves.

Plenty of value buried in ISF - just a matter of seeing whether existing shareholders get to keep it all.

[COLIN]

Just in passing, I couldn't help but note the long term "head and shoulders" pattern in your chart, AA.

[Lizard]

Gary Cohen's family interest selling down shares at ave 21cps doesn't give much comfort.

[Lizard]

Only about $30k through at 13.5cps - realistically, the trade was 14.5cps through to 18.5cps... even then though, the low was well before the ann, so not really a safe bet for the non-Iress trader until about 15.5cps bid...

It would be interesting to see how Phaedrus would read this one - on the candlestick, it's a good short term reversal, but the OBV would look bad for the mid-term?

Also the intra-day candlestick would have picked the reversal for the fast trader some hours before the announcement. ;)

[Footsie]

I had a wee nibble today. HIgh risk stuff though. And only in for a very short term.

[Phaedrus]

It is generally accepted that acting on the basis of any single signal is unwise. Quite apart from that, the reliability of Bullish Hammer Pattern is low. It definitely requires confirmation of the implied trend reversal by a white candlestick, a large gap up or a higher close on the next trading day.

Footsie, I am surprised at you. Shocked, even. I have you down as a patient fundamentalist that uses TA to time his entries and exits. A reliable, sensible type of chap. Meticulous, even. I do hope you haven't been falling into bad company.

[Footsie]

Phaedrus, relax
just a trade
Im out already. made a small amount

[Lizard]

Equity Facility with YA Global.... desperate stuff imo.

[h2so4]

Equity Facility with YA Global.... desperate stuff imo.

Must be short of cash?

[Lizard]

Must be short of cash?
I think that was obvious before the announcement.

Trouble is, this is potentially a death spiral deal. YAG takes the shares (probably at a discount to VWAP and maybe some extra for fees thrown in), then gets a couple of weeks to sell the shares on market before taking up the next (larger) lot, using the proceeds from the previous... doesn't do much for the share price if this happens. Of course, ISF has the option of NOT taking up the funds, but only if they can find another lifeline.

Look for some examples - CMR for starters, but I think ADY also had some issues. Lots of companies still doing deals with these guys - NXS being one.

[buns]

About to slip under 10c into the single digits….

Boy these YAG guys are soaking up the shares, ISF is truly on the edge.

However, banks are lending to them. This surprised me big-time, either this bank has been under a rock for the past 3 years or ISF actually has something going for it and will be able to meet its obligations?

I really don’t see how. Government spending is only going to fall, Fibre roll outs are being put back, ISF’s current products do not work, ISF has no money to put into R&D/Or enter the US market in time to get the Obama bill $$ - ha and during all of this the aussie dollar is just killing them more and more. Although not as much NHS revenue to bring back to aussie…

I think ISF needs a bit of luck, get lornezo working and scaleable, hope these knee deep in debt euro governments spend on health. Hope other growth emerges – to capitalise on all of this ISF needs this new management team to step up, and in the mean time strip out as much cost as possible.

COLIN, Marcus, Lizzard – still holding? Any reason I should keep this on the active watch list for the next 6 months?

[COLIN]

About to slip under 10c into the single digits….

Boy these YAG guys are soaking up the shares, ISF is truly on the edge.

However, banks are lending to them. This surprised me big-time, either this bank has been under a rock for the past 3 years or ISF actually has something going for it and will be able to meet its obligations?

I really don’t see how. Government spending is only going to fall, Fibre roll outs are being put back, ISF’s current products do not work, ISF has no money to put into R&D/Or enter the US market in time to get the Obama bill $$ - ha and during all of this the aussie dollar is just killing them more and more. Although not as much NHS revenue to bring back to aussie…

I think ISF needs a bit of luck, get lornezo working and scaleable, hope these knee deep in debt euro governments spend on health. Hope other growth emerges – to capitalise on all of this ISF needs this new management team to step up, and in the mean time strip out as much cost as possible.

COLIN, Marcus, Lizzard – still holding? Any reason I should keep this on the active watch list for the next 6 months?

No, I got out (after hanging on for far too long). And I think the downsides you have identified would need to be heavily outweighed by some mighty pluses before I would look at them again. But if they could weather the next few years they could eventually become attractive, given that the healthcare industry is increasingly becoming one of the largest growth industries in the developed world. But the timescale would be too long for me, I'm afraid.

[buns]

Anyone keeping an eye on this?

Sinking ship on the way unless the NHS bails them out and they grow small balls and take serious cost out.

HY EBITDA at 10.2m down from 36.1 (this excludes all one offs, restructuring etc)

-Revenue down nearly everywhere, not just across the NHS programme. Although some minor contract wins have come through of late, but going by the trends I think these will be offset by other lost contracts as ISF becomes a scary business partner.

-Cost out is waaay to slow for a business serious about restructuring. About 15% so far!!! Thats probably Friday drinks.

NPAT at -44.1m compared to -1.6m (again excludes one offs, actual/what the banks look at is -80m)

-Not good reading. Also bloody hard to read! These guys produce awful financials; they seem to try and hide certain things and inflate their story. There is no breakdown of the NPAT figure! Or of these one offs.. I want to see the financing costs movement, and judge how quickly this debt will drive them into the ground. I've found it in the stat accounts, of $25m...

-Seems they exlude this as well in adjusted NPAT?? Where is Capex/FCF? Eh, not going to spend anytime mulling this one over..

[drillfix]

Hi Buns,

Mate, I have watched this one do a bounce off 15c up to 20c and then a death spiral down to where it is now.

Was thinking about doing a scalp once or twice, but overall, intuition said NO, much better other stocks to scalp than ISF.

Its now on its 52 week Low but even then, if the story doesn't add up, and the dosh ain't there along with some promise path to the scared land then I would personally pass.

Only positive here is it has seemed to find a base for support, but at times that looks not promising at times.

[buns]

What keeps me watching this one is, the Story does add up. I first found this one around $1 (now 6c) and thought it was one of the cheapest stocks on the market. I love the sector, and some parts of ISF.

This was suppose to be the turning point, most of the capex/R&D is behind them. Lorenzo rollouts where suppose to be flying... however they did get a tad unlucky (NHS, recession, FX), then things snowballed with poor management, no risk mitgation, huge unavoidable fixed costs.

If this can somehow stay a float, get some common sense in the board room, and a bit of luck here and there. It could just be alright. The market is huge, and there aren't to many players..

I'll keep watching, even if its just a learning thing..

[buns]

After a couple of BIG days, we have a trading halt.

Won't be cap raising, won't be any new investment.

I'm thinking a takeover or asset sale.

[Lizard]

Rumours they are putting themselves up for sale, with CSC as most likely buyer.
iSoft for Sale - Guardian UK (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/mar/24/isoft-for-sale)

Not clear if this is to be done via takeover or asset sale. Not sure whether they can untangle enough of the UK business to separate the assets.

[Lizard]

I am thinking that, depending on the announcement, OCP might look good ex-suspension, even if ISF shares are worthless. This presumes any deal enables them to recover the face value of their convertible notes in ISF. According to ISF HY report, these notes have a face value of about $39.7m - well above the $21.1m that OCP are recording them at based on discount to maturity. The difference will more than cover the $15.1m write-off they'd need to take on the shares were they to be worthless.

Previously, OCP had announced an unaudited NAV of $2.16 per share. Redemption of ISF convertible at face value but net of loss on shares would add another 3.5cps. Any value attributing to the shares would add more.

Of course, if a deal is struck which is good for ISF investors, the shares themselves have far greater leverage - though it is likely there will be little chance for an entry. If a deal is bad for shareholders but still okay for debt-holders, then there may be some reflex selling in OCP that could make it a good buy (last traded at $1.50).

[Lizard]

I'm thinking receivership :-)

Looks like we all thought wrong... according to CSC web-site, they are buying through scheme of arrangement, cash offer to shareholders of 17cps.

Going to be some gleeful punters that bought in the last few weeks before suspension!

[buns]

jeebers!

This was around 3c or something whilist Japan was wobbling. Those who (stupidly) bought ISF here, or at any price this year will be rewarded bigtime.

Still, ISF is a very sad story..

[Lizard]

I am thinking that, depending on the announcement, OCP might look good ex-suspension, even if ISF shares are worthless. This presumes any deal enables them to recover the face value of their convertible notes in ISF. According to ISF HY report, these notes have a face value of about $39.7m - well above the $21.1m that OCP are recording them at based on discount to maturity. The difference will more than cover the $15.1m write-off they'd need to take on the shares were they to be worthless.

Previously, OCP had announced an unaudited NAV of $2.16 per share. Redemption of ISF convertible at face value but net of loss on shares would add another 3.5cps. Any value attributing to the shares would add more.

Of course, if a deal is struck which is good for ISF investors, the shares themselves have far greater leverage - though it is likely there will be little chance for an entry. If a deal is bad for shareholders but still okay for debt-holders, then there may be some reflex selling in OCP that could make it a good buy (last traded at $1.50).

Given it is unlikely there will be much opportunity to make in ISF on the open, the question is now whether it will be possible to make on OCP? The ISF shares are now worth about $44.6m (plus $36k for the warrants), so I reckon NAV post-sale should be around $2.68. Even with a 25% discount to NAV for uncertainty, the shares should hit $2 (from current $1.50).

Will be interesting to see where they go, since directors have a commitment to a shareholder vote on the future of OCP should the sp remain more than 15% below NAV in April (this commitment was made two years ago and since reiterated) - i.e. wind up and return capital or re-invest.