John Ryder's Global Newsletter

[Financially dependant]

A great read each month!!

The latest news letter is here and now web based......http://www.globalnews.co.nz/

It's the last free lunch!!:cool:

[Joshuatree]

What an interesting, comprehensive Global monthly review all in one letter!!:t_up: Thanks to Fd if you are still around.(and John Ryder from Ryman healthcare)

[Hoop]

Thanks for the link FD....Thanks to the Authors, John Ryder M.Com (Hons), CA, CMA; Tim Gordon B.Com, B.Sc (Hons); Tim Warren B.Com (Hons) for providing data commentary, and opinion free to the investor masses...much appreciated..we will look forward to your future emails...

[Joshuatree]

Latest issue just hit my mailbox. fantastic read:t_up:

[Hoop]

Latest issue just hit my mailbox. fantastic read:t_up:

Agree....A great easy to read summary of Global conditions..Only 7 paragraphs packed with a lot of info including NZ...Thanks John.

[Joshuatree]

John Ryder has a special issue of his global newsletter out.

[Joshuatree]

Latest issue out http://www.globalnews.co.nz/

[Joshuatree]

Latest issue out ; in a nutshell "dance near the exit".www.globalnews.co.nz

[JBmurc]

Great reading have signed up for the newsletter

[macduffy]

Latest issue out ; in a nutshell "dance near the exit".www.globalnews.co.nz

Isn't John Ryder reflecting the majority view here? It seems a long time since I read of anyone expecting markets to roar ahead from here, nor are many forecasting an imminent crash.

[Joshuatree]

Latest news letter is out now.

[Joshuatree]

2nd paragraph sounds like NZ too.
"Twenty-six years without recession have put Australia within two years of overtakingthe Netherlands’ record growth streak and government, central bank and economistforecasts all suggest it’ll take the mantle. After all, the economy has a head start with2.5% growth virtually baked in, 1.5% from population gains that are among thedeveloped world’s quickest and 1% from resource exports feeding Asia’s gianteconomies.


Yet the reliance on rapid immigration is straining infrastructure, while mining profitsfuel riches for stakeholders but do little for the vast majority of Australians living inmajor cities. Meantime, wages are barely growing, households carry some of theworld’s heaviest debt loads, and productivity gains from the economic reforms of the1980s and early 1990s have petered out. There’s been no major economic reformsince the turn of the century, with just about every attempt reversed or cannibalisedby toxic politics. And the impact is starting to show. Just when the economy needsgrowth drivers outside of mining, a slide in global rankings for innovation andeducation suggest living standards could decline. The miracle economy thatshrugged off the global recession is turning mediocre. " bloomberg

[peat]

yes its a good read indeed.
And there are clear strategies and action points outlined too !

[Joshuatree]

Last issue for 2017 just out. Its FREE:)

[JBmurc]

2nd paragraph sounds like NZ too.
"Twenty-six years without recession have put Australia within two years of overtakingthe Netherlands’ record growth streak and government, central bank and economistforecasts all suggest it’ll take the mantle. After all, the economy has a head start with2.5% growth virtually baked in, 1.5% from population gains that are among thedeveloped world’s quickest and 1% from resource exports feeding Asia’s gianteconomies.


Yet the reliance on rapid immigration is straining infrastructure, while mining profitsfuel riches for stakeholders but do little for the vast majority of Australians living inmajor cities. Meantime, wages are barely growing, households carry some of theworld’s heaviest debt loads, and productivity gains from the economic reforms of the1980s and early 1990s have petered out. There’s been no major economic reformsince the turn of the century, with just about every attempt reversed or cannibalisedby toxic politics. And the impact is starting to show. Just when the economy needsgrowth drivers outside of mining, a slide in global rankings for innovation andeducation suggest living standards could decline. The miracle economy thatshrugged off the global recession is turning mediocre. " bloomberg



Yes talking with three different bankers today TSB-Westpac-ANZ (working on my forward funding plans)

Was very surprised how blinded they are to the new low rate enviroment we have currently been fooled into believely will last for the long term (Yet the FED is telling us the dead opposite) ..they all made comments if I was right and we seen 7% av rates 2020 that they would have a huge percent of their loan book wouod be in underwater >> talk about debt bomb ....one income families with hubby working in the property industry ticked with 700k debt 90% LVR >>>>sub 100k income (that could half in property downturn ?)

[kiora]

That is why IR will not go up JB or go up very slowly

[JBmurc]

Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve chairman. Alan Greenspan: Interest rates on government bonds have never been lower
8:04 AM ET Fri, 4 Aug 2017 | 01:44
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan issued a bold warning Friday that the bond market is on the cusp of a collapse that also will threaten stock prices.

In a CNBC interview, the longtime central bank chief said the prolonged period of low interest rates is about to end and, with it, a bull market in fixed income that has lasted more than three decades.

"The current level of interest rates is abnormally low and there's only one direction in which they can go, and when they start they will be rather rapid," Greenspan said on "Squawk Box."

That low interest rate environment has been the product of current monetary policy at the institution he helmed from 1987-2006. The Fed took its benchmark rate to near zero during the financial crisis and kept it there for seven years after.

Since December 2015, the Fed has approved four rate hikes, but government bond yields remained mired near record lows.

Greenspan did not criticize the policies of the current Fed. But he warned that the low rate environment can't last forever and will have severe consequences once it ends.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/04/greenspan-bond-bubble-about-to-break-because-of-abnormally-low-interest-rates.html

[Joshuatree]

Latest issue out, a good read for any one a little nervous about the current correction. One recco is a house builder in USA,they are short houses there too:D

[Joshuatree]

Latest issue out covers a very broad range of sectors and industries with great global overview, its free.

"Construction is expected to be a major contributor over the next few years, with the 2017 construction pipeline report (prepared by the Building Research Association of New Zealand and Pacifecon) projecting $310 billion of work between 2015 and 2022, of which $177.8 billion is in residential property, $65.7 billion in non-residential building, and $66.2 billion in infrastructure. The government has also signaled that it expects to spend $42 billion over the next five years, led by the KiwiBuild programme."
The IMF has an optimistic view of New Zealand's economy, forecasting growth to stay at around 3%

[peat]

yeh I was a little surprised at the overall view of optimism from the latest report. but it is a great read - very well put together using a variety of sources.

[Joshuatree]

Not so optimistic now
google global news nz

[Beagle]

Yes he's getting a little "Grizzly Bearish" The Don seems determined to stir up trouble wherever and whenever. Choppy waters ahead ?
I continue to hold a very high cash allocation...has been in the 40-50% portfolio allocation level for several months now and see no reason to be less cautious going forward.

[Joshuatree]

Latest issue just out, a no surprises emphasis on the bearish.

[Joshuatree]

Latest issue out surprise surprise quite bullish.Not addressing global warming in any way unfortunately except ways to make money out of it, yeah right , tui ,Ryder.

[Joshuatree]

156th issue out , 34 pages in-depth summary of Global, country, Commodities , Reccoes etc

"Our current thesis for the share market is that there will be short-term weakness from political events (Trump trade wars and Brexit) but it will rally towards year-end, as central banks create more liquidity and the global economy starts to recover."

.www.globalnews.co.nz

[Joshuatree]

Last issue of the year out with reccos, A great read for anyone active/interested in Equities.

[peat]

quite a categorical statement from him
"the bond market has peaked"

[Beagle]

Good read.

[Joshuatree]

Been putting out weekly letters lately

www.globalnews.co.nz (http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001H0OQKVVdE5en-9G_qwUbDKbc6-vJRL5zX6iyHAKlqlJ67WeTZctmDsuXwXaMi5-SveD75paU4dUXMABarvk6nwVn8py3W2hAyYQJAChCOmKk5S96l C5q6LC7sn4vaiG5rk1unak2yweBKXkI9LeU3ZJOOIPmCI_PBB5 pil9z8ag=&c=in4SGRRBhOaroilXPpaifaiSqkVKCklXjLAOy-RoCKGECiP87xNTxQ==&ch=1EzkD_r3mJkCeeX3Eo3QO5HwEOtCwqGxGFUCTKiT31v6odP vSRuinw==)

[peat]

Been putting out weekly letters lately

www.globalnews.co.nz (http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001H0OQKVVdE5en-9G_qwUbDKbc6-vJRL5zX6iyHAKlqlJ67WeTZctmDsuXwXaMi5-SveD75paU4dUXMABarvk6nwVn8py3W2hAyYQJAChCOmKk5S96l C5q6LC7sn4vaiG5rk1unak2yweBKXkI9LeU3ZJOOIPmCI_PBB5 pil9z8ag=&c=in4SGRRBhOaroilXPpaifaiSqkVKCklXjLAOy-RoCKGECiP87xNTxQ==&ch=1EzkD_r3mJkCeeX3Eo3QO5HwEOtCwqGxGFUCTKiT31v6odP vSRuinw==)

and apologising for his gloominess.

[Joshuatree]

While sitting out atm.

[peat]

its worth quoting todays email from John Ryder.

The Australian Financial Review describes the crisis as: "The biggest economic disaster since the depression of the 1930s" - and yet the equity market,after an initial collapse, continues to be positive... courtesy of governmentand central bank initiatives. It is unusual for share market melt-downs to havea V-shaped recovery, as they tend to re-test lows a number of times. Prices arestill high in traditional (average) terms, and (at this level) will beexcessive when future earnings are reported.

and a little funny at the end

There is misery everywhere. In London, wealthy families are studying Housekeeping 101, as butlers and housekeepers self-isolate at home.



​ John is definitely one whose views should not be dismissed

[kiora]

Today just as good
"To access Mini Global please log on to: www.globalnews.co.nz

And so it goes on...

The newsletter questions how society will return from the lockdown. Will we see structural changes altering the way people connect and do business? The results of a CBS poll suggests that it will take some time to return to normality. Encouraged by Donald Trump, many in the US are busting to unbreak their chains, citing the American Constitution (the 14th Amendment) as a reason why restrictions are unlawful (good luck with that!). The Financial Times says that if we think one lockdown is painful, imagine the impact of another from a second wave of infections.

China is an example of how it should be handled, as few people are flying and they are retaining a semiformal lockdown. New Zealand is the only country in the world attempting to eliminate the virus entirely from its shores - it won't be easy.

Bill Gates writes for the Economist, suggesting that humanity will beat the pandemic, but life will not return to normal until a vaccine is established. However, if people are being infected second time around it means that immunity is not being established in the same way as for other viruses. There are now even suggestions that a vaccine may not be found.

America, the country worst hit by the pandemic, has laid off another 4.4 million workers - taking the total to 26 million, or one in six US employees. There are expected to be another 27 million job losses in the second and third quarters.

As an example of the extreme attempts to revitalise economies, New Zealand is suggesting that "helicopter money", or direct payments to all citizens, may be considered.

Business continues to evolve. Drones and robots as delivery mediums were once considered extreme, but now may be very appropriate under conditions of reduced social contact.

National debt levels are soaring, with the IMF suggesting that global gross government debt will increase by US $6 trillion.

Equities have crept higher, encouraged by central bank stimulus, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.4% last week. One analyst suggests that listed companies be put into three buckets, depending on balance sheets and the ability to adapt.

A prominent New Zealand's economist is suggesting that the house price decline will be "short-lived".

Donald Trump has given up (for now) holding conferences for journalists, complaining of "fake news" - after offering false or misleading information in nearly 25% of his remarks. This will be a loss to the entertainment industry.

It is what it is.

Take care out there.


Kind regards,

John Ryder and Devon Ashby"

[kiora]

The 3 buckets

"Cramer: The Stock Market Is Now Divided Into 3 Buckets - And One Is Unfortunate
The problem for index fund owners is they own all three buckets and there are a lot more companies in the third bucket than in the first two."
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/jim-cramer-this-stock-market-is-divided-into-3-buckets-and-one-is-unfortunate-15302176

[blackcap]

The 3 buckets

"Cramer: The Stock Market Is Now Divided Into 3 Buckets - And One Is Unfortunate
The problem for index fund owners is they own all three buckets and there are a lot more companies in the third bucket than in the first two."
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/jim-cramer-this-stock-market-is-divided-into-3-buckets-and-one-is-unfortunate-15302176

The problem Cramer has is that he is a crappy stock picker. I understand what he means about the 3 buckets. But theory would indicate that those buckets are already priced in today. So you might want to sell the crappy 3rd bucket but you will get little for it today anyway. In NZ I can think of say AIR, THL, SKT, etc and the stocks in the 1st bucket are ATM and FPH. But FPH is on a PE of 75. Not sure if FPH will outperform the crap bucket in the long run from this day forward. So in essence he is right in that you want the first 2 buckets and not the 3rd, but you wanted that 2 months ago. Today is irrelevant.

[kiora]

FPH PE is estimated to be no greater than 59 for 2020( maybe less,we'll see ) in
4-traders
Where did the 75 come from?
Yes it is high I will agree
For it though it is predicted to keep growing earnings at 15%/year for the foreseeable future
What I don't get is Genesis priced at PE 49 at estimated earnings.Is its earnings going to grow?

[peat]

What I don't get is Genesis priced at PE 49 at estimated earnings.Is its earnings going to grow?

Yeh I've never owned any for this reason but the smart people tell me it is valued on cash flow and dividend paying capability (i.e it pays out more than it earns because of large depreciation write-offs I think)

[Joshuatree]

www.globalnews.co.nz (http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001yKVxNl8s4dDiJLfqgGLHFKanF30ym77NqT6EjV kJWhm8INqjYa9YKsLCarm1wuKVL2ULWzthDfht6UzDy8F9SjHe Pr2tSiw5PMMbq1PUs-PlXkdogILFNxnEZW1Hm2yBfG_WvftJ1YUwzCK5fWv0EQ==&c=mG-PaasiXGV0IK98aKV9hRzGb4Rf5n_6aidBzLUmUKlWSire8-gZiA==&ch=XIIf1hPgszjC5Gls05AzXMMnJn1mVUtSg53mw67RW0O-eJbaH3xAKA==) latest issue out.Reading the forward is always interesting.

One snippet

" It is widely assumed that a Covid-19 vaccine will come to our rescue soon. This is unlikely to be true, but, more importantly, it is a dangerous assumption on which to plan the overall response to the pandemic. The lessons to be drawn from the quest for vaccines for other viruses are that our aspirations in vaccine development are not always realised, and that we can make great progress nonetheless with alternative new drugs and interventions."

[kiwico]

Very, very belately I have noticed this is no more - I don't recall when the emails stopped coming but as the global.new.co.nz domain name is pending release (https://dnc.org.nz/whois/search/?domain_name=globalnews#availabilityList) it looks like it isn't coming back. A great shame as it was a very intersting read each week.

[kiora]

A fair synopsis?
"John Mauldin says with energy spikes preceding almost every recession in the past 80 years, another one is coming now and it will be global"
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/114820/john-mauldin-says-energy-spikes-preceding-almost-every-recession-past-80-years?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+15+ March+2022

[Joshuatree]

Very, very belately I have noticed this is no more - I don't recall when the emails stopped coming but as the global.new.co.nz domain name is pending release (https://dnc.org.nz/whois/search/?domain_name=globalnews#availabilityList) it looks like it isn't coming back. A great shame as it was a very intersting read each week.

You're right,I hadn't picked up on that.Well thanks so much for your newsletters John , over the years,best wishes and welcome back anytime.

[Recaster]

Just wondering if anyone knows where you can get back issues of this publication? Globalnews.co.nz seems to have expired.

Incidentally, found a book Global Investing by the same author. First edition 2016 & second updated edition 2017.

[Snoopy]

Very, very belately I have noticed this is no more - I don't recall when the emails stopped coming but as the global.new.co.nz domain name is pending release (https://dnc.org.nz/whois/search/?domain_name=globalnews#availabilityList) it looks like it isn't coming back. A great shame as it was a very interesting read each week.


Last blog written on 13th December 2021

https://rejigit.co.nz/vendor/article.php?uid=ie

"After nearly 20 years, Global has come to an end. Devon is off overseas and John wants to focus on some major projects. Thank you for your time."

"It is what it is."

"Take care out there… and Merry Xmas"

"Kind regards,"

"John Ryder and Devon Ashby"


SNOOPY

[DTC]

Altho’ his financial newsletter was so well respected, including by me, as chairman of New Zealand King Salmon… does he bear some responsibility for the NZX investment jalopy that it's been(?)
Disclaimer: holding shares, possibly partly based on chairmanship.