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forest
21-05-2009, 01:50 PM
SAN exports practically all its produce and will therefore significantly benefit from
a lower exchange rate. A 1c movement in the NZD versus either the USD or JPY
will boost after tax earnings by NZ$2m.

The above quote is from Aspect Huntly research 4 Dec 08.

I like to state a few facts : Average exchange rate in San 2008 financial year (to 30 Sep).
1NZ$ approximately US 0.75
1NZ$ approximately Jap Yen 81

First 8 months 2009 financial year
1NZ$ approximately US 0.56
1NZ$ approximately Jap Yen 54

San NPAT in the 2008 Fin year was NZ$31.5 mil.

English is not my first language and I fail to be able to work out what San NPAT will be in 2009 fin year (assuming everything else stays the same).With other words I do not get the above sentence 'A 1 cent movement in the.....'.

Would be great if somebody can put some light on this.

Thanks in advance.

Forest

macduffy
21-05-2009, 04:06 PM
SAN exports practically all its produce and will therefore significantly benefit from
a lower exchange rate. A 1c movement in the NZD versus either the USD or JPY
will boost after tax earnings by NZ$2m.

The above quote is from Aspect Huntly research 4 Dec 08.

I like to state a few facts : Average exchange rate in San 2008 financial year (to 30 Sep).
1NZ$ approximately US 0.75
1NZ$ approximately Jap Yen 81

First 8 months 2009 financial year
1NZ$ approximately US 0.56
1NZ$ approximately Jap Yen 54

San NPAT in the 2008 Fin year was NZ$31.5 mil.

English is not my first language and I fail to be able to work out what San NPAT will be in 2009 fin year (assuming everything else stays the same).With other words I do not get the above sentence 'A 1 cent movement in the.....'.

Would be great if somebody can put some light on this.

Thanks in advance.

Forest

The report is saying that if the NZD/USD rate were to average .56 for the full year, as it has for the first 8 months of the financial year ( and if all SAN's earnings were USD exports - which of course they are not ) then the impact on SAN's after tax earnings would be an additional NZD 38m - 19c exchange difference at NZD2m per 1 cent movement.
The Yen effect is a bit more complicated but you will get the idea. The main point is that a decidedly weaker NZD increases SAN's earnings considerably when the USD and YEN receipts are converted to NZD.

forest
21-05-2009, 06:10 PM
Thanks macduffy. Yes I get the idea. It would have been nice if there would have been a bit more info so the change in FX could have been quantified in NPAT.

macduffy
21-05-2009, 07:33 PM
We can't be too exact about this.
We don't know what volumes/values of product are sold from month to month and of course the exchange rates are moving constantly. We also don't know how much forex forward cover the company is taking, or not taking from time to time so the revenue as it converts to NZD is also unknown. You may have some idea of how the price of product (fish) has moved in USD terms in this period. I don't.
What we can be sure about is that the lower NZD is beneficial to SAN.

;)

tobo
05-10-2009, 06:21 AM
anyone following SAN?
is the sustained downtrend just due to the exchanges rate, or is there something else?
- declining fishstocks?
- declining demand? (declining prices?)
- efficiency? (but cost of oil has dropped!)

Casa del Energia
05-10-2009, 07:47 AM
anyone following SAN?
is the sustained downtrend just due to the exchanges rate, or is there something else?
- declining fishstocks?
- declining demand? (declining prices?)
- efficiency? (but cost of oil has dropped!)

I follow SAN - but not that closely - only opinion: it's the strong kiwi although I wonder if buying the mussel farm off sealard was a trigger for the sp slide - -or just a coincidnece.
At any rate - SAN is a long term hold becuase the planets fish stocks are going belly up but NZ econ zone is comparitively well managed - and Sanford owns a lot of quota.
The sp slide is just an opportunity to buy into something that the world is running out of.

tobo
05-10-2009, 06:27 PM
Thanks, Casa,
Yes it makes sense that NZ fish stocks will be under relatively good control and will be valuable into the future, hence a good LT industry to be in.

I'd better take Phaedrus's general advice and wait for the downtrend to turn, first, before buying

tobo
10-12-2011, 07:09 AM
Is this the reason for the sp decline from $4.20 to 3.80 last 2 days

(What happened 6 weeks ago? Was $4.80)

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/charges-laid-against-sanfords-detained-tuna-fishing-ship-ng-106028

Impacts could include:

Lost production (vessel out of action)
Legal costs to defend
Potential fines
Diversion of management attention




NBR
Charges laid against Sanford's detained tuna fishing ship

Nevil Gibson | Wednesday December 07, 2011 | 3 comments

Seafood company Sanford is facing seven sea pollution and other charges in American Samoa over the operation of tuna fishing boat.

The San Nikunau has been detained since July 2011, when the US Coast Guard began an investigation into allegations it had been illegally dumping "oily bilge waste" for the past four years.

The US Deartment of Justice also alleges Sanford to maintain accurate oil records, obstruction of justice by presenting false documents and deceiving the US Coast Guard during an inspection.

If convicted, the DoJ says, the company could be fined up to $US500,000 per count plus the "gross gain or loss that resulted from the ciminal conduct." The indictment also seeks "criminal forfeiture" of more than $US24 million from proceeds that Sanford derived from its actions.

Sanford denies the allegations and says it would never permit discharges of pollutants into the ocean or obstruct a reasonable investigation.

"We will be vigorously defending all the charges and continuing our efforts with authorities in American Samoa to get the vessel released to enable it to return to fishing," Sanford managing director Eric Barratt says.

Earlier reports have said Sanford petitioned the High Court there to release the ship on grounds it has not violated any laws and the detention is illegal.

The San Nikunau is one of Sanford's three large-scale tuna purse seiners, which catch mainly skipjack tuna, some of which is processed by one of the two canning factories in Pago Pago.

Sanford says the vessels operate under New Zealand maritime law but are also subject to regulations in American Samoa.

tobo
10-12-2011, 07:16 AM
further - "since July when the US detained the vessel San Nikunau in American Samoa"

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/sanford-vows-fight-us-pollution-charges-4610582

Sanford vows to fight US pollution charges

Commercial fishing boat - Source: ONE News

Fishing company Sanford has vowed to vigorously defend US Government charges of polluting waters around American Samoa.

Sanford said it learned today that the US Department of Justice will serve the company with indictments alleging failure to maintain an accurate oil record book, and consequent illegal pollution discharges and obstruction during the investigation.

Sanford said it has been conducting its own investigations in conjunction with its legal advisers since July when the US detained the vessel San Nikunau in American Samoa.

"We will be vigorously defending all the charges and continuing our efforts with authorities in American Samoa to get the vessel released to enable it to return to fishing," Sanford said in a statement.

"Sanford Limited takes its responsibilities to respect the ocean and its resources extremely seriously and would never permit discharges of pollutants into the ocean and nor would we obstruct any reasonable investigation into any allegations made against the company."

The company said it has publicly reported its environmental, economic and social performance in the form of a Sustainable Development Report for the last 10 years.

iceman
10-12-2011, 08:54 AM
[QUOTE=tobo;362978]Is this the reason for the sp decline from $4.20 to 3.80 last 2 days

(What happened 6 weeks ago? Was $4.80)

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/charges-laid-against-sanfords-detained-tuna-fishing-ship-ng-106028

Impacts could include:

Lost production (vessel out of action)
Legal costs to defend
Potential fines
Diversion of management attention




[COLOR="#4B0082"][I]NBR
Charges laid against Sanford's detained tuna fishing ship

Yes tobo I think this is obviously the reason for the sharp decline in sp in the last couple of days. The charges are fairly serious but I am sure SAN would not deliberately do any of the issues they are charged with. I think SAN has been oversold as a result of this bad news story. The facts remain that SAN in a strong company in an industry that is finding its products increasingly "easy" to sell and prices for most products are steadily rising. The mussel farm purchases are apparently intergrating well and I think we can expect a benefit from this to flow through fairly quickly. Hoki quotas are likely to increase further in coming years, access for toothfish in South Georgia and multi year agreement with East Coast Maori tribes about use of their quota should all strengthen SAN results in the medium to long term. The main issue of concern for me is that their local deepwater fleet is getting old and out of date and will require replacement in the next few years. The other concern is the politically motivated attack in the media recently about use of foreign charter vessels. Yes they need to be better and more humanely managed but they should and will remain an important part of the NZ fishing industry for the foreseeable future. SAN relies on this for a reasonable part of their catches. Overall, I am positive about SAN medium-long term.
Discl; Hold SAN and have been adding in the last 2 days

tobo
10-12-2011, 11:55 AM
Yes, you are taking the big picture: ongoing operational issues (US Coastgaurd legals, virus affecting young oysetr supply etc) will be dealt with by management; the substantive issues are continuity of business equipment (incl updating vessel), fish stocks, and future markets and sales prices

re: foreign charter vessels - From Annual Report I note that "these make up only 8% of the Company’s fleet and foreign crew represent only 8% of our workforce, these vessels and crew play a vital role in our operations as a whole"

iceman
11-12-2011, 07:33 AM
Yes, you are taking the big picture: ongoing operational issues (US Coastgaurd legals, virus affecting young oysetr supply etc) will be dealt with by management; the substantive issues are continuity of business equipment (incl updating vessel), fish stocks, and future markets and sales prices

re: foreign charter vessels - From Annual Report I note that "these make up only 8% of the Company’s fleet and foreign crew represent only 8% of our workforce, these vessels and crew play a vital role in our operations as a whole"

Yes tobo it is "only" 8% but they catch species such as Squid that have highly fluctuating catch rates year to year and Mackerel that requires large vessels with high capacity, something our domestic fleet is not geared up to do at present. It is hard to justify such investment with our high local costs and the limited opportunities for such vessels 12 months per year, which of course is an absolute must to make it economically viable.

Marilyn Munroe
11-12-2011, 12:02 PM
It is hard to justify such investment with our high local costs and the limited opportunities for such vessels 12 months per year, which of course is an absolute must to make it economically viable.

Why not bare hull charter a suitable boat for the season and crew it with Kiwis? I am sure that if this was done most of the unwelcome attention brought on the industry by foreign fishing vessels and crew conditions would fade away.

Boop boop de do

Marilyn

iceman
11-12-2011, 02:34 PM
Why not bare hull charter a suitable boat for the season and crew it with Kiwis? I am sure that if this was done most of the unwelcome attention brought on the industry by foreign fishing vessels and crew conditions would fade away.

Boop boop de do

Marilyn

It is difficult (or impossible) to bare boat charter such vessels and move them to NZ for short periods. Also highly risky as the Squid catches are very unreliable and some years are complete disasters. The cheaper to run foreign vessels can be sent to catch other lower value species when this happens whereas a vessel crewed by Kiwis could not pay the bills that way. I am afraid that the foreign charter vessels will remain part of the industry for years to come

iceman
15-12-2011, 10:59 AM
The CEO spending $170k of his own money buying shares in last few days. Great to see he thinks like I do that this company has been oversold and is now a good buy !

Aaron
30-12-2011, 02:19 PM
Just looking at the financial statements and the Key performance Indicators show over the last five years tonnage increasing 74%-416% on various categories of fish yet Revenue increased only 26% over the same period, profit increased only 11% over 5 years (at a time when inflation must have been close to 3%). Return on Equity is 4.1%.
Dividends including imputation credits were 32.86cents per share or 8% at today's prices.

Exchange rates can't be the only factor surely. Fish prices must be pretty static with at least a 74% increase in production you would expect turnover to rise by an equal amount if prices stayed the same (give or take exchange rate fluctuations).

The US and other nations are trying to devalue their currencies making matters worse for SAN.
Net Assets are $5.87 and this includes intangibles like quota and licenses which are saleable but at the mercy of govt interference.
If dividends aren't growing the dividend valuation model comes up with $2.19 to $3.28 based on a capitalisation range of 10% to 15% (although $4.10 indicates an 8% capitalization rate or a higher capitalisation rate and some growth).
Based on another thread the dividend valuation model is not widely used.
What price range would people put on this company and what basis would you use.
What would be a consensus P/E ratio for Sandford and why.

I have a feeling that food will go up as populations grow and get wealthier but do not have anything to back this up.
Looks like Sandford is a price taker not a maker.

iceman
03-01-2012, 01:02 PM
Hi Aaron,
I am a little confused looking at the numbers in the "Key Performance Indicators" which show an increase in production from approx 84,000 tonnes in 2008 to 96,500 in 2011 but total sales in tonnes for the same period have reduced from 102,500t to 96,500t. So in fact, the tonnage of export and local sales combined are around 5% lower in 2011 than in 2008. Obviously being produced into different product ranges now but makes year on year comparison hard to do reliably.
I think some of the explanation of increased catch vs static revenue is that early in the period you mention, there were severe reductions in quota of some main species such as Hoki and Orange Roughy. Sanford has during this time had to direct their local deepwater vessels to lower value species but the good news are that the Hoki stock , a strong contributor to Sanford's revenue, are on the way up and have been for 3 years now.

Despite the disappointing earnings for 2011, due to many factors both external and unforseen operational issues, it is pleasing to see a very good cash management result in a $48m positive cashflow, justifying maintaining the dividend at same as previous years as well as paying a $25m term loan. With Pacifica Seafoods now fully intergrated and starting to contribute ahead of forecast and a "steady as she goes" contributions from other parts of the business, I have all faith that Sanford will lift earnings to above 40c per share in 2012-2013, as they did in 2008 & 2009. Hopefully they will use that to maintain current dividend and reduce debt. Of course FX is a major factor and while the USD/NZD will probably stay historically high, even a slight reduction from last years average down towards 75c would make a huge difference to Sanford's bottom line, probably about NZ$ 10m annually.

Aaron
03-01-2012, 03:09 PM
Thanks for the reply iceman. I was comparing 2007 with 2011 just the production tonnage and the gross revenue.

How do you value this company and decide on a price you are willing to pay?

iceman
04-01-2012, 08:10 AM
I don't really have any formula for valuing this company's shareprice Aaron but I know the company well and follow operational issues fairly closely. I sold out my entire holding in SAN last June at $5.10 and have recently bought back in (now overweight) at an avergare price of $3.83. I look at this as a defensive investment with steady and low risk dividends (around 8% at my entry price and possibility for modest capital gain. But I also consider:

# It has got a good steady management that are focused on the business

# The Co is highly respected by its worldwide peers

# The Goodfellow family has a long term holding close to 40% with much involvement and dedication to the company

# They recently changed the management stucture which I think will result in more focus on an improved return

# The Pacifica Seafoods purchase has been intergrated and started to produce good profits but more importantly, this purchase has left Sanford in a dominant worldwide position for Greenshell mussels. They have already managed to stabilise the market prices and most or all producers have now stopped low price dumping on the market, benefitting the whole industry

# Hoki quotas are likely to go higher in coming years and most other deepwater species are fairly healthy

# Fish prices have plateued for now but are not expected to go down

# New Aquaculture legislation should see new allocations of water space (after years of zero growth) and Sanford will no doubt benefit

# Government having finished Aquaculture reform now intends to focus on changes to inshore fisheries with the aim of making them more economically sustainable. Sanford as the biggest inshore fisher will benefit if this bears fruit

#The deal with the Central North Island Iwi Cooperative gives access to a significant amount of extra quota

# The Board has stated that after recent expansion they will now focus on debt reduction (hopefully increased divies in 3-4 years)

Of course there are some issues on the negative as well and fishing is an inherently risky business, but on balance I think Sanford is a fairly safe bet on current share price.

Aaron
04-01-2012, 10:20 AM
Thanks Iceman.
What about the goodfellow family. Amalgamated marketing buys and onsells fish I wonder if they are a big customer of Sandford the related party transactions note in the financial statements doesn't really shed any light on this. I would hate to think that a fellow shareholder was doing business at the other shareholders expense.

iceman
04-01-2012, 11:29 AM
Thanks Iceman.
What about the goodfellow family. Amalgamated marketing buys and onsells fish I wonder if they are a big customer of Sandford the related party transactions note in the financial statements doesn't really shed any light on this. I would hate to think that a fellow shareholder was doing business at the other shareholders expense.

No Aaron they do not and no conflict of interest at all. Amalgamated marketing used to own 50% of Amaltal Fishing Co with Talley's owning the other half. Talley's bought them out a few years ago

iceman
09-02-2012, 09:27 AM
Interesting to see that the CEO has spent just under $ 1.8 million buying shares in SAN, in the last 2 months and the Marketing GM just over $ 200k. They continue to buy so must think current SP is good value. I agree with them, despite the ridculously strong NZ$, and keep adding to my holding.

Aaron
23-12-2012, 12:11 PM
Despite the disappointing earnings for 2011, due to many factors both external and unforseen operational issues, it is pleasing to see a very good cash management result in a $48m positive cashflow, justifying maintaining the dividend at same as previous years as well as paying a $25m term loan. With Pacifica Seafoods now fully intergrated and starting to contribute ahead of forecast and a "steady as she goes" contributions from other parts of the business, I have all faith that Sanford will lift earnings to above 40c per share in 2012-2013, as they did in 2008 & 2009. Hopefully they will use that to maintain current dividend and reduce debt. Of course FX is a major factor and while the USD/NZD will probably stay historically high, even a slight reduction from last years average down towards 75c would make a huge difference to Sanford's bottom line, probably about NZ$ 10m annually.

If 2011 was disappointing 2012 is much the same. $NZ not looking like it will get any weaker with Japan's new PM not even trying to hide the fact that he wants to destroy the value of the yen. Still dividend maintained in what was another difficult year and $20mill reduction of long term debt. Good to see managing director showing some faith in the company and buying more shares. At what price would people value this company? Does the low return on equity matter if your getting a decent steady dividend. Govt quota system must work in favour of the larger fishing companies as they buy it up creating a barrier to new fisherman.

Using my dividend valuation model(D/(required return-growth rate) a divvie of 23cents and a required rate of return of 8% gives me $2.88 per share. A 3% growth rate gives me $4.60. Dividends haven't grown for the last five years and total equity has only grown 6% over that time. I guess this means a value closer to $2.88 than to $4.60. I actually would prefer a return closer to 15% but in the current environment where can I get that. Gold speccies have resulted in large losses which make Sanford look good in comparison. Chasing a high return has not resulted in a better return. This company looks slow and steady but at least it is reliable.
Other peoples valuations much appreciated.

iceman
24-12-2012, 06:24 AM
If 2011 was disappointing 2012 is much the same. $NZ not looking like it will get any weaker with Japan's new PM not even trying to hide the fact that he wants to destroy the value of the yen. Still dividend maintained in what was another difficult year and $20mill reduction of long term debt. Good to see managing director showing some faith in the company and buying more shares. At what price would people value this company? Does the low return on equity matter if your getting a decent steady dividend. Govt quota system must work in favour of the larger fishing companies as they buy it up creating a barrier to new fisherman.

Using my dividend valuation model(D/(required return-growth rate) a divvie of 23cents and a required rate of return of 8% gives me $2.88 per share. A 3% growth rate gives me $4.60. Dividends haven't grown for the last five years and total equity has only grown 6% over that time. I guess this means a value closer to $2.88 than to $4.60. I actually would prefer a return closer to 15% but in the current environment where can I get that. Gold speccies have resulted in large losses which make Sanford look good in comparison. Chasing a high return has not resulted in a better return. This company looks slow and steady but at least it is reliable.
Other peoples valuations much appreciated.

Thanks for your comments Aaron. I am overseas and have not had a chance to look at the report in detail, but you are right, it was another disappointing year. A huge negative contribution was caused by the charges laid by the US Government against the pacific tuna fleet. If you take lost catches during high season and add them to the direct costs outlined by the Co, we are looking at a very large number. I reckon no less than $ 10 mill this fiasco has cost the company. But despite this, I am with you that Sanford is a good steady dividend payer and in all likelihood will continue to be so in the future. Having said that, I sold my holding at 4.50 a couple of days before XD ! However, more a result of needing cash for Christmas than any negative sentiment towards this investment ! I will be back in again in the next few months I expect.

Aaron
26-12-2012, 12:34 PM
Lizard, Catalyst, Snoopy etc does anyone mind giving their value for this company or the reason they wouldn't take the time to give it a quick look, such as risky industry, low return on equity etc.

winner69
26-12-2012, 01:29 PM
Lizard, Catalyst, Snoopy etc does anyone mind giving their value for this company or the reason they wouldn't take the time to give it a quick look, such as risky industry, low return on equity etc.

I'll leave this to you and iceman .....you both seem to be believers ....so stick with it and don't let the likes of me change you mind. One year you might get lucky but I can't see any long term above average returns from San

I give it another quick look but nothing of late inspires me to spend any more time than that .....nothing even to see it worthwhile updating my financial model for them

Too many variables outside of their control for my liking and a business that for a long time has only achieved low roe. How can you get exited about normal ebit trend of 44 /54/ 30 / 26/12/32/39/25/22/20 over the last decade?

Granted they at least make money but even in good years seems to have some 'bad luck' that stuffs the result ....so always some good stuf but invariably some bad stuff.

All shows up in the 20 year chart ....the 10 year chart ... The 5 year chart ....and I can see the next 5 year chart looking the same

Nobody has provided a compelling story to get me excited

winner69
26-12-2012, 01:31 PM
Lizard, Catalyst, Snoopy etc does anyone mind giving their value for this company or the reason they wouldn't take the time to give it a quick look, such as risky industry, low return on equity etc.

What's you value aaron

Aaron
27-12-2012, 08:41 AM
It is not a growth stock, the lack of an increase in dividend or the equity of the company shows this over the last few years. In fact profits are declining and revenue is pretty stagnant. I have used the dividend valuation model above. My problem is deciding on the capitalisation rate and whether there should be any growth. If you didn't expect growth of at least 3% (inflation) then it wouldn't be worth it. They haven't shown an ability to do this but I think seafood in a world that is still growing should be positive.

I would be happy buying at $3.50 but looking at the charts this might be unlikely to happen anytime soon unless something really bad happens (and I would have to have a rethink) so I would extend it to $3.80. At $3.50 with the current no growth in dividend that is a 6% yield (better than the bank with a possibility of growth) or per my div valn model 9.5%cap rate and 3% growth.
Sorry Sparky I haven't tried the PEG ratio test but I imagine SAN would do poorly.
The other thing I like is the price to book value and the Net assets per share of $5.94(30/9/2012). Normally I would take out intangibles but SAN's intangibles are mostly quota which currently have a real value and I think they can be leased out if not fully utilised by the company. Usually if the govt is involved there is money to be made but value can be destroyed as well. (I don't know what the greens view on the quota system is for example). This provides me with some piece of mind that I am buying $5.50 of assets for $3.50 to $3.80. If the return/yield on these assets increases next year then it is all good. Although a high NZ dollar might make this hard.

Disclaimer I hold SAN shares and purchased these at significantly more than $3.50 so am disappointed in myself as I didn't purchase based on any rational basis but I am hoping to improve one day and will add to my holding if market sentiment goes against SAN. I am starting with a simple div valn model as it is easy but very subjective. I can change growth rates and cap rates to get a valn I am happy with but it can also show whether I am being unrealistic or not. For example 3% growth after looking at the five year comparison might not be realistic. I am probably just being optimistic about future growth but if I wasn't I wouldn't buy. Also am trying to be a share investor rather than trader so I am always looking to hold long term in good companies.
P.s. trying to be conservative but ignorance of company risks probably means I am unaware of how risky my investments are.

winner69
27-12-2012, 10:18 AM
AAron - you mentioned long term investment

Just for you the returns from holding SAN over multi time frames are in the table below (rainig today and a bit bored but enough to convince me SAN not for me). Since 2001 and includes dividends (not reinvested and no taking into account tax benefits)

RED is negative returns .... pinkish is less than 5% and yellow highlighted the only periods when returns have been above 10% pa - minimun return in investing in equities i use (equity risk premium and all that sort of stuff)

Note that you only get good (even if not all that good) returns when the investment period starts at a low point for the share price ...... so you have the right idea in waiting until SAN is more reasonably priced.

Except for traders and a few clever (or lucky) people who picked the lows SAN has generally bad investment this century

But don't let me put you off .... you seem keen and have an investment thesis of sorts so stick to it

Aaron
27-12-2012, 11:01 AM
Thanks Winner, appreciate the response, probably not a good time of year to ask questions with everyone on holiday.
Returns are pretty poor. If they can't impove earnings then dividend and shareprice will remain poor. History would say they have had the chance to improve earnings over a number of years and not done so. I guess that is a more reliable indicator/guide of future expected earnings/returns than optimistic hoping for improvement next year.
I will continue to hold and would still consider buying more if it goes below $3.80.

I will get back to you on this in a years time when the next annual report comes out. You can tell me that "you told me so" if SAN continues in the same fashion and I appreciate your views as they all help me to form my own opinion.

winner69
27-12-2012, 12:24 PM
From the archives Aaron chart showing SAN ormalised earnings (taking out the bad stuff) and forecasts from yahoo finance

Good old analysts eh --- always assuming things will get better and back to where they should be ---- in this case better than average

But thats modelling for you things always go well ... if the underlying assumptions come to fruition

Next year forecast is 36 cents a share ..... on this basis share price will be 360-400. As you can see even at 325 today a fair biot of the improvment is already priced in ... on last years earnings should only be 240-280 in my opinion

Check back in a years time and you can tell me that of course all this was going to happen

winner69
27-12-2012, 12:27 PM
One thing about the high return period for SAN -- only decent returns when the shareprice collapsed or went down a fair bit ..... just shows always try to buy cheap to get above normal returns .... but in SAN case I would hazard a guess that when SAN was down in the dumps so were other decent companies and buying these at the same time I would hazard anither guess and say the returns fron those would have been better than from SAN

winner69
27-12-2012, 12:32 PM
I see yahoo analysts summary have forecast growth over the next 5 years at 8.7% pa

Using sparky's formula on the pgw thread this 'implies' SAN should be worth 393

the sparky method says san overvalued at the moment

Marilyn Munroe
07-01-2013, 01:52 PM
A question for those knowlegable about fishing;

Would Sanford be better off giving the Koreans and their rust-bucket slave ships the flick and investing in high-tech state of the art factory trawlers?

Boop boop de do

Marilyn

iceman
07-01-2013, 06:06 PM
A question for those knowlegable about fishing;

Would Sanford be better off giving the Koreans and their rust-bucket slave ships the flick and investing in high-tech state of the art factory trawlers?

Boop boop de do

Marilyn

HI MM,
I know a little about fishing so hope I qualify to try and respond to your very worthwile question. There is no question that the Koreans and other foreign flagged vessels have served an important purpose over the years in developing NZ deepwater fisheries, especially for the lower value species.
But the time to see rust bucket Korean vessels where crew is maltreated and made work in unsafe and unacceptable conditions, is well and truly over and should not be accepted in NZ. These are now being phased out over the next 3-4 years, the Koreans all but gone already.

But I do believe that there will still be an opening for a small number of well run foreign crewed/owned vessels to catch some species that may not be commercially viable for NZ vessels with Kiwi crew to catch.
But China is buying an increasing amounts of all types of seafood at better prices than we have had in the past and this may well make these species more commercially viable in the medium term future.

The second part of your question is a good one. Our industry is run by a management system which is very similar to Iceland, where fishing is of similar importance to agriculture here in NZ.
The Icelandic industry is without a doubt a World leader in techology with a very up-to-date fleet, a fleet that makes a lot of money for both the companies and the share of catch paid crew. There has been tendency in the NZ industry for 20 years now to drive down salaries of fishermen and the result is a serious lack os skills in the industry to man a fleet of new and up to date vessels. Sanfordīs current deepwater vessels are over 25 years old which is ancient in this game. But it is a NZ industry wide problem and needs a complete change in attitudes and directions from industry tops.

Unfortunately this attitude and aversion to new technology, new investments and high salaries is not limited to the vessels. Our fish factories are also completely outdated with most of the work being done manually, such as fish filleting by hand.
You look at fish factories in Iceland and Norway where you see only a handful of people and everything is automated.
But along side tIcelandīs booming fishing industry, they also have booming tech and manufactoring industries with companies for example making high tech fish processing, fisheries research and fishing gear products that are sought after worldwide and demand premium on prices

So I suppose my long winded answer (sorry for that) is that yes, the NZ fishing industry needs to step up a few gears. We have a great resource that is relatively well managed with a stable management system but we need to utilise it much better for the good of the country and the people that work in the industry.

The " Kiwi ingenuity" approach simply does not work in todays World !

Marilyn Munroe
08-01-2013, 12:16 AM
Thanks for your informative reply Iceman.

I have heard reports that a red meat processing factory was able to improve their yield by 3% - 4% switching from manual to automated processing.

If such gains are able to be carried over to fish processing then a decision to automate would seem a good idea.

Boop boop de do

Marilyn

Marilyn Munroe
12-01-2013, 02:08 PM
While I am dissapointed in the actions of Sanford and its crew member it seems that no evidence of actual discharge of oil was accepted by the jury. The nub of the offence was a failure to process bilge water through an oil seperator and to falsely claim that they had done so in the records.

I wonder if there was an element of excessive prosecutorial zeal on the part of US authorities similar to that seen in the Kim Dotcom debacle?

In Icemans post above he commented that Sanfords deep water vessels are over 25 years old. Was the age of the vessel and its equipment a factor in the offence?


Boop boop de do

Marilyn

Aaron
12-01-2013, 03:35 PM
A clean record for a number of years prior to this one incident makes me think there might have been a bit of an overzealous approach by the US authorities.
Still a fine like that should ensure management will take the need for environmental protection seriously in the future. bad news for shareholders though

winner69
12-01-2013, 07:57 PM
It jsut seems to happen too often ..... when things get a bit tough the good old standards seem to go out the window for the sake of a better bottom line

These sort of things start from the top .... the culture of the organisation seems to change and and you can only blame the leadership

So the embedded 'sustainability' standards weren't really a this is how we do do things around here .... no matter the expense ... seems it was more like lip service

Qantas seems a good example where the the old standards and pride in its fleet have all gone awry .... shareholder interests (ie more money) is the imperative now .... even if their planes are now not the safest in the world like they used to be

janner
12-01-2013, 08:05 PM
A clean record for a number of years prior to this one incident makes me think there might have been a bit of an overzealous approach by the US authorities.

Insert Tui ad...

iceman
13-01-2013, 06:14 AM
Agree with the sentiments here that this is a very bad look for Sanford and a stain on its otherwise good reputation. The breach itself was a minor one really (record keeping failures onboard) and should have been accepted and dealt with properly by Sanford, rather than obstructing Coast Guard officers doing their job and denying any wrongdoing on their or their crew member's part. A bad performance indeed.

MM the age of the vessel in this case was not a factor at all.

I do however not agree with W69 that Sanford pays lip service to sustainability. That is not the experience with them here in NZ where they take their environmental responsibilities very seriously and have for example been consistently at the conservative and outspoken end of the industry with regard to setting of quota levels. They have also worked diligently on improving existing operations and developing new methods to minimize the unavoidable interaction with the environment, with lasting positive results.
But agree with you W69 that the leadership failed on this issue, resulting in the management culture being brought into question.
I wonder if the recent management restructure, where overall responsibility of the Pacific operation changed hands, contributed to this fiasco.

The substantial fines will obviously need to paid but what concern me more is the 3 years probationary period where Sanford vessels can not enter US ports. As far as I understand, Pago Pago is the only port with decent infrastructure to deal with these vessels and their catches in that part of the World so it will be interesting to see how Sanford will operate their fleet up there from now on.

Although this is not going to have a huge effect on Sanford's performance, I am happy to be out of Sanford at present while watching how this pans out.

winner69
13-01-2013, 07:48 AM
Iceman. ....I wasn't really doubting Sanfords commitment to sustainability .....just saying that often other things like making profit and keeping shareholders happy tend to lessen that commitment ....and leaders don't keep reinforcing that commitment ... The culture changes ...and things like what has happened happen

Maybe lip service the wrong phrase ....but recently maybe the commitment has not really been there




Y

percy
13-01-2013, 08:35 AM
Funny enough 3 of the best performing companies on NZX; RYM,EBO and MFT have retained their commitment.!

winner69
13-01-2013, 08:59 AM
Funny enough 3 of the best performing companies on NZX; RYM,EBO and MFT have retained their commitment.!

Means a lot eh percy

Probably means that corporate purpose and values are well and truly embedded in the company culture ... from the boss down to the troops .....and decisions at levels have to pass the test 'is this the way we do things around here?'

Mind you i would say that cracks (even though small ones) are appearing in Mainfreight as they get bigger and bigger .... think how many deaths and serious injuries to staff (or family as they call them) the last few years

percy
13-01-2013, 10:03 AM
Yes I think that is a fair statement.Bigger,more widespread and very different cultures and languages let the cracks get bigger.

iceman
13-01-2013, 01:49 PM
[QUOTE=winner69;390071]
Probably means that corporate purpose and values are well and truly embedded in the company culture ... from the boss down to the troops .....and decisions at levels have to pass the test 'is this the way we do things around here?'/QUOTE]

A very valid point you have raised W69 and I suspect complacency has indeed been a contributing factor in this multi million (8-10 in my view) dollar fiasco and damage to reputation. Would be a good thing to bring up at the AGM for someone attending !

Aaron
21-01-2013, 10:14 AM
Just talking to someone who may have some idea re the charges laid. My understanding may be a bit confused but ended up only being a lack of record keeping and not for any actual discharge. The record keeping related to a forward compartment not normally checked as little/no chance of discharge into the sea.
The charges were more likely US authorities over there looking to help the US boats that that fish the same areas. More US protectionism at work. trying to ban access to ports/cannery all part of it. Support from NZ would be good.

iceman
21-01-2013, 11:20 AM
Just talking to someone who may have some idea re the charges laid. My understanding may be a bit confused but ended up only being a lack of record keeping and not for any actual discharge. The record keeping related to a forward compartment not normally checked as little/no chance of discharge into the sea.
The charges were more likely US authorities over there looking to help the US boats that that fish the same areas. More US protectionism at work. trying to ban access to ports/cannery all part of it. Support from NZ would be good.

That's my understanding too Aaron, that no actual discharge took place. It was a record keeping error, or in fact falsification if my understanding is correct. Sanford then handled this badly by trying to deny anything was out of the ordinary. So I don't think we can blame anything other than failure of Sanford's procedures in this case, with very expensive results. I do note that they have now created a new position of compliance manager which hopefully will ensure such mistakes are not made again.

iceman
07-05-2013, 03:36 PM
I have been hearing on the grapevine for some time now that things are looking good for Sanford so far this year. Very good Tuna catches during the very long and hot summer and prices stable. Deep sea fleet also doing well with main deepwater quotas increasing and looking for steady further increases in the near future.

It will be interesting to see who will be the new CEO. Rumour is that we have 3 internals in contention and a search on outside the company, both nationally and internationally. While the 3 internal candidates are all highly experienced and suitable for the job, I think it may be time for look for a strong candidate from overseas that can nudge Sanford and the fishing industry in general a bit from the stagnation I feel we have seen in recent year.

But overall looking good for Sanford which appears to have adjusted its operation to the high dollar and may well benefit significantly when it eventually falls again, whenever that may be !

I am slowly adding SAN again

iceman
10-05-2013, 12:37 PM
Looks like I am not the only one expecting a good results announcement soon. Only about $3k worth of shares for sale and at much higher than last sale. I am watching this one with interest !

Marilyn Munroe
11-05-2013, 01:40 PM
I think it may be time for look for a strong candidate from overseas that can nudge Sanford and the fishing industry in general a bit from the stagnation I feel we have seen in recent year.



I suspect foreign charter fishing boats have been a crutch used by the industry to avoid hard decisions. Is there value to be added by modern factory trawlers processing whitefish on-board, and has the investment of this type been able to be avoided due to the cash flow arising from foreign charter boats?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

iceman
11-05-2013, 04:50 PM
I suspect foreign charter fishing boats have been a crutch used by the industry to avoid hard decisions. Is there value to be added by modern factory trawlers processing whitefish on-board, and has the investment of this type been able to be avoided due to the cash flow arising from foreign charter boats?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Yes I think that is definitely one issue that has held back progress in the fishing industry although I do believe there is some room for WELL MANAGED charter vessels in NZ. But both the inshore and deepwater fleets in NZ are completely outdated and requires significant investment fairly soon.
The same can be said about on shore factories which rely completely on LOTS of people doing manual work, rather than using up-to-date technology to run the factories with a fraction of the current staff and much more efficiently.

This is why I believe the right overseas CEO may do a better job pushing for change than internal candidates from current management. But I do reiterate that all 3 internal candidates are highly experienced and capable.

iceman
13-05-2013, 01:17 PM
[QUOTE=moosie_900;406609]Spanner in the works a bit here before the FY report...QUOTE]

Luckily noone injured and all fully insured according to CEO. Should have little financial effect.

Marilyn Munroe
11-04-2014, 01:08 AM
If allegations of underpayment by crews working for its partner Dongwon Fisheries are sustained by the Employment Relations Authority then surely Sanford will terminate its relationship with this partner.

Do continueing breaches of public policy objectives by their partner expose Sanford to the risk of loosing their rights to fishing quota?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

iceman
11-04-2014, 01:44 PM
If allegations of underpayment by crews working for its partner Dongwon Fisheries are sustained by the Employment Relations Authority then surely Sanford will terminate its relationship with this partner.

Do continueing breaches of public policy objectives by their partner expose Sanford to the risk of loosing their rights to fishing quota?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

They should get rid of these crap vessels from NZ. But severing all ties with DongWon will be difficult as they do own a processing company together overseas.
No chance of Sanford losing any of their quota because of these breaches by a third party.

iceman
13-04-2014, 06:49 AM
MM, I've checked this with Sanford management. Their current Joint Venture is with Dong Won Fisheries Ltd, which is a fairly small and mainly family owned but publicly listed business. The JV is not with the very large DongWon Industries. Just a clarification.
Sanford currently has 2 vessels operating in NZ under this JV. Dong Won Fisheries also owns 50% of the Timaru coldstore and they and Sanford own 50% each of the WDWF Co processing facility in Weihai, China.
They also confirmed Sanford has no financial liability for the historical crew issues on the Korean vessels. It sits 100% with the vessel owners.

Major von Tempsky
13-04-2014, 07:05 AM
Nah, affected is always a verb and effect usually a noun. Even if effected was being rarely used as a verb here it would mean that Sanford's earnings are put into place/delivered by Foreign Exchange changes whereas I'm pretty sure that you mean S's earnings are being cramped by the higher dollar. Slack.

BlackPeter
28-04-2014, 03:43 PM
nice little downtrend of an in my view mainly well managed, but for some time already overvalued company. Who knows, may be at some stage worthwhile buying (though in my view not yet ...)?

Marilyn Munroe
07-05-2014, 04:20 PM
Politically controversial compnay Oravida has a link to Sanford. It acts as Sanfords scampi distributor in Shanghai.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10846294

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

BlackPeter
03-11-2014, 08:35 AM
Any explanation for last months SP ramp up? I guess SAN looks like a solid and well managed company, but it looked already expensive before the SP went up. PE (no matter how you calculate it) is well above 20 ... why is the market pricing it like a growth company?

Joshuatree
03-11-2014, 08:41 AM
saw a snippet a little while back, can't remember where but it was re Sanford being a play on $kiwi exchange rate effect.(positive for profits)

iceman
03-11-2014, 09:40 AM
Any explanation for last months SP ramp up? I guess SAN looks like a solid and well managed company, but it looked already expensive before the SP went up. PE (no matter how you calculate it) is well above 20 ... why is the market pricing it like a growth company?

I agree BP that SAN is expensive at current SP and on current earnings. I bought back into SAN in mid May, before it went XD.
The reasons I bought back in is that what I am hearing about the changes in management structure the new CEO is quietly implementing, I like and believe it was long overdue.

SAN has purchased a lot of assets over the last few years and these assets are still to contribute positively to the earnings, but they should.
I think the focus will nor be on making sure these assets will start contributing in the near-medium term future and with the lower FX rate, SAN earnings may finally improve substantially and give a more acceptable return on assets, which has been unacceptably low for too long !

bunter
03-11-2014, 02:26 PM
Fair value = 5.35 by my model.
Sharp (25%) share price increase lately, seems more than could be accounted for by the falling NZD.
Good news coming?

forest
26-05-2016, 01:14 PM
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/236309.pdf

Company seem to be moving in the right direction.

mshierlaw
26-05-2016, 05:08 PM
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/236309.pdf

Company seem to be moving in the right direction.

Very light on content. FAO data is very OLD.

Turnaround in mussels is the key, progress on mussel spat breeding facility will shore up spat supply quantity in a couple of years. Major potential for increase in mussel quality through selective breeding using this technology.

Wild catch flat with focus on value improvement through quality & tailoring product to customer requirements.

DISC not holding.

forest
26-05-2016, 06:15 PM
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/236290.pdf


Include in the link is the info about mussel spat which I have copied below.


[/urlSanford’s mussel farming operations
with its geographical spread around
New*Zealand, including trials in
off-shore areas and the emerging spat
volumes from Shellfish Production
and Technology (SPATnz), are well
placed to achieve increased raw
material supply in line with market
demands and our plans for this
business.
The SPATnz hatchery opened in
Nelson in April last year and has been
performing to expectations. The
hatchery is fertilising two billion eggs
every six weeks. These grow into spat
that will produce around 10,000
tonnes of Greenshell mussels at
harvest annually. The hatchery team
continue to make research discoveries
that improve consistency of the spat
production process and better
understand particular traits of the
different mussel families. Plans are
underway to move the capacity of the
hatchery to 30,000 tonnes by the
end of this financial year. The
advantages of hatchery spat over wild
sourced spat are a consistent and
reliable supply coupled with superior
performance. We are very excited
about this development, which we
believe will be a significant factor in
the ongoing development of the
Greenshell mussel industry in
New*Zealand.

kura
21-06-2016, 07:45 PM
Was looking at their half yearly accounts recently & was suprised to see "finance Income" of $7.6m (negligible in previous periods ) No mention of this income was made in directors report, & I couldn't see any decent financial assets in balance sheet.
Any thoughts on how they made this income out of thin air ? It's a trick I'd like to know !


Disc: Went to shop downtown Sat morning & was served by guy on front page of half yearly report.

iceman
22-06-2016, 08:28 AM
This is gains from FX hedging



Was looking at their half yearly accounts recently & was suprised to see "finance Income" of $7.6m (negligible in previous periods ) No mention of this income was made in directors report, & I couldn't see any decent financial assets in balance sheet.
Any thoughts on how they made this income out of thin air ? It's a trick I'd like to know !


Disc: Went to shop downtown Sat morning & was served by guy on front page of half yearly report.

forest
19-08-2016, 06:55 PM
SAN had unusual high turnover in shares so far this month on a rising share price.
This together with four insiders buying 200,000 shares.
The ones buying were CFO, CCO, CFO and the COO.
Between them you would expect that they know how the company is doing.
I cant help but think good results are in the pipe line.

Joshuatree
19-08-2016, 07:13 PM
It was $5.62 when you posted on the "Are NZ stocks too expensive thread". Now $6.05 so thats a 7.6% rise pretty handy. Have you an intrinsic value Forest. Thanks for bringing it to our attention.

forest
19-08-2016, 08:15 PM
It was $5.62 when you posted on the "Are NZ stocks too expensive thread". Now $6.05 so thats a 7.6% rise pretty handy. Have you an intrinsic value Forest. Thanks for bringing it to our attention.

Hard to come up with an intrinsic value for SAN as there are many changing factors with this company and lot of them positive as I see it.
Had a talk to the 2 Goodfellow directors at the last AGM and they seem to expect that return on equity is going to be double digits within a few years.The last 5 years were all below 5.
A positive for SAN also is that new planes have more cargo space this helps with sending higher value fresh fish to markets were they are prepared to pay a premium.

Worth keeping an eye on

iceman
20-08-2016, 08:48 AM
Forest I am not sure this indicates any spectacular upcoming results. I do however believe this indicates that they are starting to believe they will be allowed and supported by the Board to implement the long term (5 odd years) plan of the new CEO and his management team. If successfully implemented, SAN will be a totally different and more interesting business in 5 years time. I bought back in 4 months ago and am likely to add more if and when I see how the change of direction progresses.
SAN has made quite a few acquisitions in the last few years but many of them have not yet produced sufficient earnings. They have very valuable assets that have been under performing and that's where the focus and increased profit will be. Just my ten cents worth.

forest
21-08-2016, 10:40 AM
[QUOTE=iceman;633243]. I do however believe this indicates that they are starting to believe they will be allowed and supported by the Board to implement the long term (5 odd years) plan of the new CEO and his management team. If successfully implemented, SAN will be a totally different and more interesting business in 5 years time.

From what I sensed at the last AGM management and board are very much aware of past sort comings in business model and are very clear on how to fix this. Good to hear that somebody with your understanding in this sector has an share holding in SAN.

Beagle
21-08-2016, 03:58 PM
Handy things those Dreamliners. 15 tonnes cargo space, (three times the cargo weight of the old 767's

forest
21-08-2016, 04:21 PM
Handy things those Dreamliners. 15 tonnes cargo space, (three times the cargo weight of the old 767's

Its good for a company like SAN, it makes the difference between selling frozen fish at a low price or up selling the same fish as chilled fresh fish at a better price.

What other NZ companies do you think would benefit from the increased air cargo space?

Marilyn Munroe
21-08-2016, 07:14 PM
Its good for a company like SAN, it makes the difference between selling frozen fish at a low price or up selling the same fish as chilled fresh fish at a better price.


What would be even better is if SAN could copy Kiwi red meat processors and by strict hygiene, fast processing, vacuum packaging and strict temperature controls during transit send chilled fish all the way to Europe Japan and North America by container ship.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Beagle
22-08-2016, 09:30 AM
Its good for a company like SAN, it makes the difference between selling frozen fish at a low price or up selling the same fish as chilled fresh fish at a better price.

What other NZ companies do you think would benefit from the increased air cargo space?

Good question ? Maybe SCL with first of season product to Asia by air freight commanding premium prices ? What about Kiwifruit exports or Comvita maybe ?

mshierlaw
22-08-2016, 05:39 PM
What would be even better is if SAN could copy Kiwi red meat processors and by strict hygiene, fast processing, vacuum packaging and strict temperature controls during transit send chilled fish all the way to Europe Japan and North America by container ship.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Sounds great but fish flesh just does not last that long using current tecnology, water content is the issue here. The fishing industry in NZ never had the central R&D resourse that red meat had with MIRINZ in the past so no progress made on advanced technologies to get the required shelf life for seafreight. Fresh trade currently & in medium term restricted to air freight.

Most of the fish harvested in NZ are curently caught on factory trawlers, not logistically practical for a chilled market.

Seafreight mussels, already done with pressure/temperature treatments. Pressure treatments still have texture issues that remain a quality roadblock.

Marilyn Munroe
31-08-2016, 02:17 PM
C'mon Sanford do not get left behind.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1608/S01055/sealord-to-make-significant-investment-in-fishing-fleet.htm

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

iceman
01-09-2016, 09:41 AM
C'mon Sanford do not get left behind.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1608/S01055/sealord-to-make-significant-investment-in-fishing-fleet.htm

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

If SAN copy anything Sealord does, I will quickly sell my shares. "The best deepwater fishing company in NZ" comment from the Chairman made me laugh !!

mshierlaw
01-09-2016, 05:36 PM
If SAN copy anything Sealord does, I will quickly sell my shares. "The best deepwater fishing company in NZ" comment from the Chairman made me laugh !!

Sanford have just completed the purchase of FV Granit, currently in drydock in Norway, expected delivery in NZ is November 2016. No chance for a new factory trawler in the short term. So why the new vessels, exit of numerous FCV before the reflagging requirements kicked in.

iceman
01-09-2016, 08:42 PM
Sanford have just completed the purchase of FV Granit, currently in drydock in Norway, expected delivery in NZ is November 2016. No chance for a new factory trawler in the short term. So why the new vessels, exit of numerous FCV before the reflagging requirements kicked in.

Yes they will be catching fish currently caught by foreign JVs that are unlikely to meet NZ flaggng requirements. Good riddance

forest
17-11-2016, 07:10 PM
16 November 2016

Name of Listed Issuer: SANFORD LIMITED (SAN)
FINANCIAL RESULTS for the year ended 30 September 2016

Sanford reports 152% Improvement in Annual Net Profit With Increased Focus on Value Creation From Reduced Wildcatch

Highlights
1. Financials
• Significantly improved NPAT of 152% to $34.7m from $13.8m in F15. Operational performance improved by 85.5% with reported EBIT of $57.7m (2015: $31.1m)
• Reported EBIT, as a proportion of sales, grew from 6.9% to 12.4%, which reflects the focus on more value add, in particular fresh (non-frozen), products
2. Sales
• Revenue increased from $450.3m in 2015 to $463.5m, with sales volume down 11.1% compared to prior year. Volume was mainly impacted through discontinuation of skipjack tuna operations in the Central and Western Pacific region and limiting catches of pelagic species in line with demand
• Greater focus on domestic customer base and food service resulting in strong growth in the New Zealand market
• Product pricing was generally favourable, but mussels suffered from strong competition, underlining the focus for product diversification
3. Wild catch volume (Inshore and Deepwater)
• Lower catches in the pelagic sector (mackerels, tunas) and variable performance of the fishing fleet led to a 6.5% reduction in landings compared to prior year
• A focus on higher value species including toothfish and orange roughy and improved squid catch compensated for the reduced overall catch
4. Aquaculture (King salmon and Greenshell mussels)
• Strong domestic demand for fresh salmon enabled improved product cascade at greater operational efficiency
• Lower feedstock cost and better feed conversion rate also contributed to improved results.
• The positive salmon performance compensated the impact of El Niņo producing less than desirable large mussels in the early part of the year, although mussel harvest volume increased 4.5% year on year

percy
18-11-2016, 06:05 AM
Excellent result.
Outlook looks good too.
You look to be "well positioned".

Joshuatree
18-11-2016, 07:23 AM
Yes thanks forest, you are the quiet value catcher here;)

iceman
19-11-2016, 09:31 AM
A very good result Forest and nice to see the "value add" strategy starting lift-off. Looks like there is some pressure on mussel markets but salmon doing well domestically. They may even start selling more fish than ice soon to the restaurants across the road, like they told us ;)
I believe we are well positioned with this one and a long but possibly fairly slow improvement ahead of us.

Agree with their decision to pay off more debt rather than increasing dividend. A good call

iceman
22-12-2016, 09:33 AM
After attending the AGM recently and reading the very well presented Annual Report, I am very confident that the new CEO and management team is making big progress in completely changing the way Sanford operates. I believe we are seeing a major transformation from a simple primary industry harvesting company to a market and customer focused high quality food supplier and increasingly also into health products such as fish oil and pet food.

Their change of focus from frozen fish to fresh top quality direct to supermarkets, fish shops and restaurants is already jumping ahead going from 7% to 9% of their wild caught fish this year. The great thing is that almost all of that increase is more fresh high quality fish being sold in NZ where the market for high quality fish is growing very fast, thanks to better restaurant customer awareness and the large increase in the NZ Asian population.

Salmon is all being sold in NZ and they can not meet demand. Hopefully they will be granted some more water space for more farms at Stewart Island (Big Glory Bay) soon. This is a very important part of the business and would be great to see further growth in it.

This “Focus on Fresh” as well as other initiatives are seeing much smoother and more profitable operations. They have so far increased the return per kilogram of greenweight catch from $ 0.35 to $ 0.50 and are aiming to double that again. A lofty but in my view an achievable goal over the medium term.

I see no reason why SAN can not in the next 3-4 years double their profit or say 60 CPS or so. That would also give room for a large increase in dividends which I believe we will start seeing rise next year.

I really like what I am seeing from the “new Sanford” and am a happy holder.

Mitch
12-01-2017, 12:33 PM
After attending the AGM recently and reading the very well presented Annual Report, I am very confident that the new CEO and management team is making big progress in completely changing the way Sanford operates. I believe we are seeing a major transformation from a simple primary industry harvesting company to a market and customer focused high quality food supplier and increasingly also into health products such as fish oil and pet food.

Their change of focus from frozen fish to fresh top quality direct to supermarkets, fish shops and restaurants is already jumping ahead going from 7% to 9% of their wild caught fish this year. The great thing is that almost all of that increase is more fresh high quality fish being sold in NZ where the market for high quality fish is growing very fast, thanks to better restaurant customer awareness and the large increase in the NZ Asian population.

Salmon is all being sold in NZ and they can not meet demand. Hopefully they will be granted some more water space for more farms at Stewart Island (Big Glory Bay) soon. This is a very important part of the business and would be great to see further growth in it.

This “Focus on Fresh” as well as other initiatives are seeing much smoother and more profitable operations. They have so far increased the return per kilogram of greenweight catch from $ 0.35 to $ 0.50 and are aiming to double that again. A lofty but in my view an achievable goal over the medium term.

I see no reason why SAN can not in the next 3-4 years double their profit or say 60 CPS or so. That would also give room for a large increase in dividends which I believe we will start seeing rise next year.

I really like what I am seeing from the “new Sanford” and am a happy holder.

Was it the new CEO that implemented the frozen to fresh fish focus?

Mitch
12-01-2017, 01:23 PM
Any predictions for SAN's 6-Month and 12-Month share price value? am hoping it to increase as well as see an increase in dividends. Fingers crossed

BlackPeter
12-01-2017, 02:30 PM
Any predictions for SAN's 6-Month and 12-Month share price value? am hoping it to increase as well as see an increase in dividends. Fingers crossed

Analyst consensus is $6.95. Actually - I think the higher dividends are already priced in (SAN was always at the dearer end) and if you look at it - a forward PE of 15 (with limited growth) does not make it really cheap either.

Obviously - markets pushed in the past lots of dear companies still higher (AIA anybody), but this time might be now over given that markets expect interest rates to rise.

Mitch
12-01-2017, 02:43 PM
Analyst consensus is $6.95. Actually - I think the higher dividends are already priced in (SAN was always at the dearer end) and if you look at it - a forward PE of 15 (with limited growth) does not make it really cheap either.

Obviously - markets pushed in the past lots of dear companies still higher (AIA anybody), but this time might be now over given that markets expect interest rates to rise.

Well said. I'm still on edge whether to buy or not buy into SAN. I see a lot of good things in the future for SAN with the new CEO nonetheless.

percy
12-01-2017, 03:06 PM
After attending the AGM recently and reading the very well presented Annual Report, I am very confident that the new CEO and management team is making big progress in completely changing the way Sanford operates. I believe we are seeing a major transformation from a simple primary industry harvesting company to a market and customer focused high quality food supplier and increasingly also into health products such as fish oil and pet food.

Their change of focus from frozen fish to fresh top quality direct to supermarkets, fish shops and restaurants is already jumping ahead going from 7% to 9% of their wild caught fish this year. The great thing is that almost all of that increase is more fresh high quality fish being sold in NZ where the market for high quality fish is growing very fast, thanks to better restaurant customer awareness and the large increase in the NZ Asian population.

Salmon is all being sold in NZ and they can not meet demand. Hopefully they will be granted some more water space for more farms at Stewart Island (Big Glory Bay) soon. This is a very important part of the business and would be great to see further growth in it.

This “Focus on Fresh” as well as other initiatives are seeing much smoother and more profitable operations. They have so far increased the return per kilogram of greenweight catch from $ 0.35 to $ 0.50 and are aiming to double that again. A lofty but in my view an achievable goal over the medium term.

I see no reason why SAN can not in the next 3-4 years double their profit or say 60 CPS or so. That would also give room for a large increase in dividends which I believe we will start seeing rise next year.

I really like what I am seeing from the “new Sanford” and am a happy holder.

Thank you Iceman.
Excellent commentary.
And yes I brought a small parcel with the proceeds from selling AIA.
Very pleased to see the sp creeping up.
I think having the salmon farming at Stewart Island makes more sense than the Marlborough Sounds,where I believe the water is too warm.

Marilyn Munroe
12-01-2017, 03:36 PM
I see their new second hand trawler San Granit is currently fishing the Chatham Rise.

Hopefully the expected increased performance and better yield from this vessel will encourage SAN to modernise their trawler fleet.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

forest
12-01-2017, 07:53 PM
Comforting to know even an experienced guru like yourself is getting into SAN. Let the creeping up long continue.

iceman
12-01-2017, 09:22 PM
Agree MM it will be interesting to watch this vessel's performance. I hear they have been having some teething problems getting the factory up to speed.
I am a bit disappointed that they have gone for a vessel this old to upgrade the fleet. I would have liked to see a much younger vessel

Mitch, yes the "focus on fresh" is being implemented by the new CEO and his completely revamped senior management and new structure.

Welcome aboard Percy 😀

Mitch
13-01-2017, 07:27 AM
Mitch, yes the "focus on fresh" is being implemented by the new CEO and his completely revamped senior management and new structure.

Has this "focus on fresh" changed cash flow in any way? more optimal you would expect?

iceman
13-01-2017, 10:29 AM
They have managed so far to increase average return on each kilogram of wild fish caught, from 35c to 50c. Their lofty goal is to lift it to $1
So with that possibility and hopefully more water rights for salmon farms, I do not agree with Black Peter above saying they have little growth potential.

Mitch
13-01-2017, 10:33 AM
They have managed so far to increase average return on each kilogram of wild fish caught, from 35c to 50c. Their lofty goal is to lift it to $1
So with that possibility and hopefully more water rights for salmon farms, I do not agree with Black Peter above saying they have little growth potential.

I agree iceman, I don't think that their goal of $1 average return/kg is too optimistic either.

BlackPeter
13-01-2017, 11:57 AM
They have managed so far to increase average return on each kilogram of wild fish caught, from 35c to 50c. Their lofty goal is to lift it to $1
So with that possibility and hopefully more water rights for salmon farms, I do not agree with Black Peter above saying they have little growth potential.

... and hey - you might be right. Just looked at the (inspirational) NZK growth curve and put SAN (the yellow line) as comparison next to it. While SAN (in my view more fully priced) grows slower - both are clearly correlated and both are pointing upwards. SAN's 10% growth in 3 months are nothing to be ashamed of either. Their might be more money in protein than I thought.

8593

Discl: I do like salmon ... and hold NZK :sleep:;

forest
13-01-2017, 12:25 PM
BlackPeter so if you hold NZK you probably realise that on average 8 to 9% of their salmon dies because NZK fish farms are in marginal locations caused by high water temperature and low water flow.
Sometimes the casualty rates for NZK salmon can be over 30%. Apart from the cost of lost salmon to the business it is less efficient to have a product which comes to market at unpredictable quantities.

SAN Salmon fish farms are in the cooler waters by Stewart Island, an ideal location for growing Salmon.

percy
13-01-2017, 12:48 PM
Unfortunately NZK have to feed their salmon with dyed food, otherwise the flesh is white rather than pink.
They also have pollution issues.

winner69
13-01-2017, 02:18 PM
Unfortunately NZK have to feed their salmon with dyed food, otherwise the flesh is white rather than pink.
They also have pollution issues.

Yuk - wish you hadn't told me percy

Google tells me that they also feed them on animal waste ...and most of that comes from Australia .....and as not omega-3 as claimed (if that maters to you)

Hope these Sanford salmon are more naturally fed - maybe a marketing advantage if so?

percy
13-01-2017, 02:36 PM
Yuk - wish you hadn't told me percy

Google tells me that they also feed them on animal waste ...and most of that comes from Australia .....and as not omega-3 as claimed (if that maters to you)

Hope these Sanford salmon are more naturally fed - maybe a marketing advantage if so?

As far as I know there are no issues with salmon farming around Stewart Island.
Sorry I can not provide the link, but if you google ;Big Fish:Four Corners looks at the Tasmanian Salmon farming, you will see the issues that NZK also face.

BlackPeter
13-01-2017, 03:45 PM
yak - if you guys don't behave I tell you about SAN's dirty little secrets :t_down: ... but than nobody wants to eat fish anymore :ohmy:.

I heard some of the rumours / arguments you raised before - however:

For some reason seem NZK's salmons not be aware of them (re water temperature). Where is this info coming from? Ever been in Golden Bay? Anatoki Salmon do grow beautiful salmon in much warmer water than the Marlborough sounds.

I would not regard SAN as an sustainable or environmentally friendly company. Just from the top of my head: It is not that long ago that their ships have been grounded by the authorities for breaking environmental rules (illegal disposal of oil waste): http://gcaptain.com/zealand-fishing-company-fined/.
As well - remember the Chatham rise mining proposal? SAN opposed this proposal for "environmental" reasons, but keeps to create much more damage to the deep water corals (and whatever else is on the sea floor) than CRP would ever have done. Bunch of hypocrites.

SAN's Christchurch sales outlet sucks ... old fish which hasn't seen the water for a long time ... and expensive as well. Prefer to buy fresh King Salmon instead.

Anyway - market seems to prefer NZK (well, since they are around).

To be honest, I think that both will do well, but don't try to convince me to buy SAN. I do not like them.

forest
13-01-2017, 04:16 PM
SALMON MORTALITY RISK
What is it? Every year, a number of fish will die prior to harvest. This occurs due to a range of natural factors,
and can be increased by unusually warm water, feeding issues, changes in environmental
conditions (such as algal bloom, a natural event), predators (such as seals), disease or other
factors that are known and unknown. Mortality rates are significantly higher on low flow sites.
Why is it significant? Only fish that survive to the point of harvest can be sold. Fish mortalities in a given year affect
our production volumes.
In addition, a disease or other biological issue could have a longer term effect on the viability of
our continued operations.
Our assessment of the
likelihood, nature and
potential magnitude
of any impact
We know that each year a certain number of fish will die prior to harvest. Our forecast mortality rate
is 11.0% throughout the Prospective Period. Given the factors that influence this are both known and
unknown, it is likely that actual mortality figures will differ from projected mortality figures.
An increase in mortality would reduce our production volumes. However, the magnitude of any
impact is impossible to predict, as there are a number of unknown factors and unforeseen events
that can affect mortality. We term a significant increase in the mortality rate at an individual
seafarm to more than around 30% as a “mortality event”. Such events have occurred during
previous summers at low flow sites in particular and had a material impact on our production
volumes. The seafarms at which these events occurred have since been fallowed, are no
longer expected to be used for year round production or represent a decreasing percentage of
production volume.
While insurance is available for certain significant events, it will not provide complete cover for
losses due to mortality because of policy exclusions, excesses and other limitations.
We manage this risk by focusing on improving the water flow and water temperature of our
seafarms, actively monitoring fish health, geographic separation of our facilities, and maintaining
appropriate netting and other facilities at our seafarms. These steps should reduce the likelihood and
impact of any disease or predators, as well as being part of our best practice approach.
In addition, we believe that our breeding program will enable our King salmon to adapt to
gradual changes in environmental conditions.

Here is the info your after BP, from the Sep 2016 NZK disclosure statement. Not trying to convince you to buy SAN.
No doubt NZK is like SAN and working on improving their business thats what the discussion is about....

iceman
14-01-2017, 08:16 AM
Unfortunately NZK have to feed their salmon with dyed food, otherwise the flesh is white rather than pink.
They also have pollution issues.

I think one of the biggest issue for any aquaculture company in NZ at present is waterspace and the extreme difficulty in getting more space to grow their business. I can not see any further farms getting through the environmental processes in the Marlborough Sounds. And I agree there shouldn;t be more salmon farming in the Sounds. King Salmon's last application took years and was extremely expensive and only partly successful. SAN has a much more realistic chance to increase their water space in Big Glory Bay where they work overwhelmingly in harmony with the community. This is a difficult issue and despite there being immediate requirement for more protein such as salmon in the market in NZ, the environment has to be our top priority so things need to be done right.

iceman
15-01-2017, 06:59 AM
The pink color of salmon flesh, wild or farmed, results from the retention of carotenoids in the
fish flesh. Astaxanthin is a naturally occurring carotenoid and is the major carotenoid naturally
found in wild salmon and crustaceans (shrimp, lobsters) and is responsible for their pink-red
pigmentation.
Pigments are biological substances that impart color to the tissues of organisms. Carotenoids
are classed as pigments. Carotenoids are naturally present in the diet of most animals. Apart
from their natural coloring effects, some have important biological roles.
Salmon cannot make their own astaxanthin, they consume it via their diet. The wild salmon diet
includes krill, zooplankton, small fish and crustaceans all of which naturally contain astaxanthin.
The main source of astaxanthin used by the aquaculture industry is synthesized, yielding a
molecule that is identical to that found in nature. There is no difference between natural and
synthetic astaxanthin. Their chemical structures are identical.
Carotenoids are a naturally occurring group of pigments. More than 600 naturally occurring
carotenoids have been identified in plants and animals. They are responsible for the colors of
many fungi, fruits (tomatoes, paprika, citrus fruits), flowers (marigold), insects (ladybirds), birds
(flamingos), fish (salmon, goldfish) and they produce the colors of the autumn leaves.
As salmonids are unable to synthesize astaxanthin, they must consume it as part of their diet.
Astaxanthin is approved for addition to the diet of farmed salmonids, to meet the fish’s nutritional needs. (Source: Skretting, supplier of food for Sanford fish farms)

I will add that Sanford and Skretting are collaborating closely on a possible fin fish feed research station in Okiwi Bay and are hoping to get the green light on it soon.

forest
15-01-2017, 10:10 AM
Thanks iceman, comforting to know that more than likely the pigment in salmon (SAN) is nothing to worry.
The same likely for farmed salmon coming from other companies.

iceman
20-03-2017, 08:47 AM
A big pre-open trade this morning. SAN certainly seems to be much more on radar screens for investors recently with a big increase in trading volume and a steadily improving SP.
A happy holder.

Marilyn Munroe
20-03-2017, 05:17 PM
A big pre-open trade this morning. SAN certainly seems to be much more on radar screens for investors recently with a big increase in trading volume and a steadily improving SP.
A happy holder.

The recent improvement in the share price may be as a result of Sanford being included on some of the Standard & Poors NZX based indexes, thus being brought by index tracking funds.

I am interested in knowing the value added achieved for white fish in the transition from chartered Korean rust bucket slave ships to Kiwi factory ships.

If it works out I may celebrate by eating some Big Glory gravlax marinated in South Island whisky.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

mshierlaw
21-03-2017, 07:42 AM
I am interested in knowing the value added achieved for white fish in the transition from chartered Korean rust bucket slave ships to Kiwi factory ships.



There has been no recent change in the number of joint venture (JV) vessels fishing Sanford quota.

iceman
21-03-2017, 09:52 PM
Yet another unusually, or at least it used to be, big day of trading for SAN. I wonder if we need to be concerned about foreign interests buying in and foreign ownership breaching quota ownership regulations ? SAN have recently flagged they were working on ensuring this would not happen but I haven't seen anything further from them on this issue. Has anyone ?

forest
22-03-2017, 05:28 AM
Yet another unusually, or at least it used to be, big day of trading for SAN. I wonder if we need to be concerned about foreign interests buying in and foreign ownership breaching quota ownership regulations ? SAN have recently flagged they were working on ensuring this would not happen but I haven't seen anything further from them on this issue. Has anyone ?
14 December 2016
Hi iceman, from memory resolution 4 was about limiting foreign ownership to protect quota's.
(see below announcement made soon after AGM).

Annual Meeting Results and Director Independence
The Board of Directors of Sanford Limited wishes to announce that the following resolutions
were passed at its Annual Meeting of Shareholders held today:
Resolutions
1. Re-election of Dr W Bruce Goodfellow
2. Re-election of Mr Peter Kean
3. Auditor remuneration
In addition the following special resolution was passed with 99.98% of shareholders voting in
favour of the resolution:
4. Amendment of Constitution with effect from the close of the Annual Meeting
Director Independence
The Board has determined that the following Directors are determined to be Independent
Directors:
Mrs Elizabeth Coutts
Mr Peter Kean
Mr Robert McLeod
Mr Paul Norling

Dr W Bruce Goodfellow and Mr Peter Goodfellow are not Independent Directors due to their
association with a major shareholder.
Volker Kuntzsch
Chief Executive Officer

percy
22-03-2017, 06:32 AM
Yes it was resolution 4.And it was passed.

iceman
22-03-2017, 06:48 AM
Thanks percy and forest. We can safely assume they have this under control then !

iceman
12-04-2017, 09:11 AM
And yet another large parcel of shares traded today, 750,000 or nearly $ 5.5m. Intriguing !!

iceman
12-05-2017, 11:14 AM
An interesting interview with Sanford's CEO behind paywall on NBR yesterday https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/special-moment-sanford-ceo-th-p-202819

In it he talks about the changes he is trying to implement at Sanford and his recent award as Person of the Year at the World's most prestigious seafood show at Brussels last month

percy
12-05-2017, 12:57 PM
An interesting interview with Sanford's CEO behind paywall on NBR yesterday https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/special-moment-sanford-ceo-th-p-202819

In it he talks about the changes he is trying to implement at Sanford and his recent award as Person of the Year at the World's most prestigious seafood show at Brussels last month
I can't access the article,however I would like to know whether you agree with him or not.?

iceman
12-05-2017, 08:39 PM
I can't access the article,however I would like to know whether you agree with him or not.?

Not so much whether I agree with him or not. He has put some very clear targets and goals, some quite lofty. He will be judged on how SAN meets these goals. I certainly think he is trying to take SAN and the industry in the right direction and will be watching his progress with much interest. My view is that SAN has some very good but under utilised assets that will deliver much better profits if his goals are met.

I recently spoke to a mussel farmer that supplies SAN and he said they are already seeing big gains from SANīs new selective breeding technology with more uniform sizes and quality. Thatīs an asset that could well deliver big gains in the very new future.

On the negative side, I am very disappointed with the poor performance to date of their newly commissioned freezer trawler and hope they sort it out pronto

iceman
26-05-2017, 01:44 AM
Been browsing through the interim results announcement which seems to be relatively good.
Main points being a 25% improvement in NPAT and a respectable 4.4% increase in EBIDTA despite some challengers during the period. Challenges have included unfavourable weather conditions for the inshore fleet which has become increasingly important for SAN with their "Focus on Fresh" strategy so good to see they managed to increase supply and sales of fresh despite this. Focus on local supermarkets and restaurants is a positive with an increasing number of top restaurants buying from SAN. This should further grow with the development of the new Big Glory Bay brand that is slowly taking off.

Deep water fleet has done well with focus on higher value species and product. I do however hold concerns for the new vessel San Granit's poor performance so far. The CEO states this is due to a "number of technical adjustments to suit NZ conditions". I say humbug. They knew when they bought the ship it would be working in NZ. I say silly buying such an old vessel and vessel management has performed very poorly. Heads should roll if they don't get it sorted pronto.

Salmon harvest in line with expectations. Large part of future growth will come from salmon so I hope we will see announcements in the near future about increase in water space off Stewart Island.

Mussel harvest has been below expectations due to low spat supply. The good news here is the new artificial and selectively bred spat will soon come on harvest and I believe the initial results are very promising. This has the potential to make the mussel business much more efficient and to drive further growth.

All in all I think this report confirms and ongoing progress with SAN's new direction and drive towards much better return from the assets.

I would think that capital expenditure needs would be relatively low in coming years so expect to see a growth in dividends very soon and ongoing for a while. If not for FY17, then in 2018. Would like to see them introduce a DRP as well.

Discl: A satisfied holder

Marilyn Munroe
26-06-2017, 03:15 PM
I was watching a video on YouTube about container ships. Part of the video showed a crew member checking a reefer container of frozen fish. It showed the set point of the cooler unit to be -60c. Wow I said to myself "That's cold."

The commentary explained if fish were snap frozen when caught and transported at this low temperature the cell walls of the fishes flesh was not burst by the expansion of freezing and when thawed and cooked they retained moisture allowing a more succulent serving of fish.

My questions are;

Is my understanding of this correct?

Do Sanford use this process?

Do fish processed this way command a premium price?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

iceman
26-06-2017, 07:34 PM
I was watching a video on YouTube about container ships. Part of the video showed a crew member checking a reefer container of frozen fish. It showed the set point of the cooler unit to be -60c. Wow I said to myself "That's cold."

The commentary explained if fish were snap frozen when caught and transported at this low temperature the cell walls of the fishes flesh was not burst by the expansion of freezing and when thawed and cooked they retained moisture allowing a more succulent serving of fish.

My questions are;

Is my understanding of this correct?

Do Sanford use this process?

Do fish processed this way command a premium price?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Mainly tuna and some other high fat content species. Yes Sanford does that for tuna and possibly some toothfish. Not for other species to my knowledge but they may well do

mshierlaw
27-06-2017, 05:39 PM
I was watching a video on YouTube about container ships. Part of the video showed a crew member checking a reefer container of frozen fish. It showed the set point of the cooler unit to be -60c. Wow I said to myself "That's cold."

The commentary explained if fish were snap frozen when caught and transported at this low temperature the cell walls of the fishes flesh was not burst by the expansion of freezing and when thawed and cooked they retained moisture allowing a more succulent serving of fish.

My questions are;

Is my understanding of this correct?

Do Sanford use this process?

Do fish processed this way command a premium price?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Try to find a -60c coldstore in NZ, good luck. Toothfish are not currently processed or stored @ -60c. Major infrastructure upgrades required to offer this premium, is the market prepared to pay?

mshierlaw
04-07-2017, 05:42 PM
Sanford have just completed purchase of ENZAQ, a producer of mussel powder in based in Blenhiem.

See http://www.enzaq.com

Not sure of the plants processing capacity, but looks like a good fit to increase return on mussels.

Marilyn Munroe
05-07-2017, 10:02 AM
An item in the Timaru Herald about Sanford engaging more staff in Timaru;

https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/94350346/Sanford-expands-workforce-as-fishing-industry-booms-in-Timaru

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

iceman
03-10-2017, 07:59 AM
An article in the NBR yesterday talking about the change happening at Sanford with the new CEO having completely changed the focus of the company for the better and results already coming through. A long way to go yet though but I am convinced that SAN has a lot of very good assets that should be performing much better than they have for many years. Also good to see the increase in free float, much more market interest and turnover drive up a good increase in the SP over the last 18 months. A nice little turnaround or change of focus story that hasn't received a lot of comments.
https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/sanford-touches-record-high-value-add-strategy-may-be-garnering-interest-b-208334

peat
03-10-2017, 01:30 PM
yes this news came out last week via another research dept and we got a few clients in last week before the price hiked.

iceman
11-10-2017, 08:49 AM
Sanford should be right in the middle of this and will benefit greatly if this happens https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/97686349/big-goals-for-salmon-farming-in-southland

iceman
16-11-2017, 08:59 AM
Just been reading the highlights of the FY statement yesterday. Main points are a 3% increase in revenue on flat quantity of green weight catch which shows a steady progress in improving return from catch. This has been achieved with increased business with high end food service customers through their "focus on fresh" strategy and the first year with the Big Glory Bay premium branding of their salmon. Much more to be gained here.

NPAT up 8% but big improvement of 46% in cashflow from $34.4m to $50.3m. Haven't been able to study the detail of this but this gives me further confidence that we will see increased dividends coming our way soon.

The mussel powder business purchased in Blenheim during the year allows SAN to broaden their business into nutraceutical markets and will be interesting to watch.

Sadly the old factory vessel San Granit that they bought from Norway last year has been a bit of a disaster with how long it is taking to get up to scratch and still a long way to go.
Overall a satisfying result and so is the upward trajectory of the SP that has gone up around 55% since the annual report release 2 years ago.

Marilyn Munroe
17-11-2017, 12:49 PM
Sadly the old factory vessel San Granit that they bought from Norway last year has been a bit of a disaster with how long it is taking to get up to scratch and still a long way to go.
Overall a satisfying result and so is the upward trajectory of the SP that has gone up around 55% since the annual report release 2 years ago.

Thanks for the update Iceman.

I assume frozen whitefish fillets processed at sea command a premium in the market. Is this the case?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

RTM
17-11-2017, 12:56 PM
Thanks for the update Iceman.

I assume frozen whitefish fillets processed at sea command a premium in the market. Is this the case?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn
The Report just released is worth looking at if you are interested in this company.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SAN/310373/269805.pdf
Enjoy your afternoon.

iceman
17-11-2017, 05:24 PM
Thanks for the update Iceman.

I assume frozen whitefish fillets processed at sea command a premium in the market. Is this the case?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

It differs between species and markets but generally yes for exports. McDonalds for example , a large NZ fishing industry customer, wants only frozen at sea high quality product.
Of course some of the far away fishing grounds require freezer vessels to utilise them economically.

iceman
01-12-2017, 09:32 PM
A good week for SAN up 8c AND going XD of 14c. No dividend stripping here, just buy and hold. This share has been in a strong and steady uptrend now for about 15-16 months, during which it has risen about 45% + reasonable dividends. The new CEOīs strategy certainly seems to have support by some investors, even though this one is very quiet on ST. Probably not exciting enough but thatīs fine with me as Iīm enjoying the ride :-)

iceman
13-02-2018, 07:29 AM
Greg Johansson COO tendered his resignation yesterday and will leave before end of Feb, due to personal reasons. He will be a great loss to Sanford as he has the most comprehensive knowledge of the business out of them all, in my view. Big boots to fill.

DISCL: Sold out in January and currently don't hold any SAN

Aaron
13-02-2018, 08:15 AM
Greg Johansson COO tendered his resignation yesterday and will leave before end of Feb, due to personal reasons. He will be a great loss to Sanford as he has the most comprehensive knowledge of the business out of them all, in my view. Big boots to fill.

DISCL: Sold out in January and currently don't hold any SAN

Just wondering iceman why you sold out in January. Do you see trouble ahead, are you taking profits or selling an asset that is overvalued?

I purchased some time ago for the dividend at about 7%. The share price has increased 70% since then but I don't think the dividend has hardly moved.

I think fishing has a great future, an essential industry with the quota system providing a barrier to new entrants so I am currently planning on holding forever.

Maybe if I believed my view that disaster is imminent for the worlds financial markets I would sell up and buy back at fire sale prices but as I have no idea what the future holds I will remain a bit diversified.

Still interested to hear why you sold.

iceman
13-02-2018, 08:45 AM
Just wondering iceman why you sold out in January. Do you see trouble ahead, are you taking profits or selling an asset that is overvalued?

I purchased some time ago for the dividend at about 7%. The share price has increased 70% since then but I don't think the dividend has hardly moved.

I think fishing has a great future, an essential industry with the quota system providing a barrier to new entrants so I am currently planning on holding forever.

Maybe if I believed my view that disaster is imminent for the worlds financial markets I would sell up and buy back at fire sale prices but as I have no idea what the future holds I will remain a bit diversified.

Still interested to hear why you sold.

No one thing in particular Aaron. I was hoping to see increased dividends but have been told it is unlikely to happen for a while. They have also had some operational issues with 2 additions to their fleet that I think are a result of poor management decisions.
But more than that, I have had a very good run with this share (over 100%) and feel it may stagnate for awhile now until we see some real progress towards the lofty and great goals the new CEO set. I think it will take some years, which is not unreasonable.
I still think SAN is a well managed company overall and they have some very good and undervalued assets. I will continue watching them and am likely to buy in again in the future

Marilyn Munroe
08-07-2018, 11:26 PM
I watched a programme called Ocean Bounty on TV3 last night(Sunday) which features Sanford.

I am surprised TV3 is broadcasting an advertorial in a prime time slot but that is bye the bye.

I was intrigued by their in development collagen product made from Hoki skins. It is a white diaphanous film. When it comes into contact with the skin it seems to melt into it. Hopefully it becomes an in demand medical and cosmetic product.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

iceman
09-07-2018, 05:19 AM
I watched a programme called Ocean Bounty on TV3 last night(Sunday) which features Sanford.

I am surprised TV3 is broadcasting an advertorial in a prime time slot but that is bye the bye.

I was intrigued by their in development collagen product made from Hoki skins. It is a white diaphanous film. When it comes into contact with the skin it seems to melt into it. Hopefully it becomes an in demand medical and cosmetic product.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

This may be of interest to you MM http://www.kerecis.com/2018/05/18/medical-fish-skin-company-kerecis-receives-industry-award-entrepreneurship-president-iceland

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-06-27/fish-skin-may-be-the-answer-to-chronic-wounds

Mr Sigurjonsson mentioned in the article worked on his development for several years in NZ but not sure if there is a connection with the Sanford program. But sure is interesting

Marilyn Munroe
17-07-2018, 12:53 PM
The fishing quota system was brought in to allow a sustainable well managed fishing industry. A quota is a license from the government to fish. As former US President Thomas Jefferson observed what the government gives you they can easily take away.

Sanford appears to be once again involved in a foreign fishing crew scandal.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/362015/seafood-companies-slammed-over-treatment-of-foreign-crew-workers

How long will it be before Sanford looses its quota for failing to meet public policy objectives?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

mshierlaw
27-09-2018, 02:35 PM
https://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018664299

RNZ report on West Coast Hoki fishery quota cuts.

Share price unchanged on this news. Perhaps this was already factored in.

Joshuatree
19-11-2018, 03:44 PM
Climate change impact hits Sanford's full year profit (https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/375982/sanford-s-full-year-profit-hit-by-climate-change-impact)

iceman
20-11-2018, 06:54 AM
In response to JT's link above, I think it is pathetic to use this wording to justify they're lacklustre result. I've been in the industry all my life and we have had many years with unusual, both warm and cold, climate. To blame this result on "climate change" is simply silly.
But I do note that we have sea surface temperatures right now in the southern Tasman Sea that are above average, despite having returned to more neutral levels since the La Nina period last year. At the moment I believe we are in a neutral state but leaning a little towards an El Nino situation this summer. That could be negative for the salmon, if we get a hot dry summer, for sure. Then again, El Nino sometimes produces strong southerlies and sometimes northerlies, so hard to predict that one.
I'm less convinced about effects on other species and SAN's overall operation, particularly now that they have exited all of their pelagic fisheries.

The state of the hoki fishery is of much greater concern but I'm pleased to see SAN and other deep sea quota holders voluntarily cutting their catches next year below that recommended and set by the Government and not allowing "carry over" from this year to next.
This has come about largely through pressure from skippers in the industry (not scientists), many of whom are concerned about the state of the hoki stock right now.

Aaron
20-11-2018, 10:12 AM
Why the hell would you sell any quota, ever??????
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/327020

Lease it if you need to but don't sell.

I possibly don't understand how it works properly but once its gone it will be hard to get back. Quota is this businesses main asset. Boats you can buy as you need them quota is restricted. If the Tauranga business is not performing well lower how much you are leasing the quota for and maybe keep a boat to ensure the quota is fully utilised and not lost.

I really don't have a clue so would be interested in others comments.

iceman
20-11-2018, 10:39 AM
Why the hell would you sell any quota, ever??????
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/327020

Lease it if you need to but don't sell.

I possibly don't understand how it works properly but once its gone it will be hard to get back. Quota is this businesses main asset. Boats you can buy as you need them quota is restricted. If the Tauranga business is not performing well lower how much you are leasing the quota for and maybe keep a boat to ensure the quota is fully utilised and not lost.

I really don't have a clue so would be interested in others comments.

A good point Aaron. This has been a poor performing division for SAN for years and the only way for them to exit it is to sell the quota assets. The boats alone are worthless. This follows on from SAN exiting the tuna business up in the Pacific a year or two ago so getting completely out of pelagic fishing

Joshuatree
20-11-2018, 11:47 AM
Anecdotally ive heard there is a real old boy network in sanford all looking after their positions and not being very efficient at all. To be taken with a shake of salt as i cant verify this..

iceman
20-11-2018, 01:48 PM
A little bird told me that this "voluntary" cut in catch is green washing. In reality they are not able to catch the full quota so putting a brave face on it.
Fishery has collapsed. Some say climate change. Others say over-fishing.

The cuts are real even though it is correct that not all the quota will be caught this year. Doesn't mean they won't be able to next year so the reduction is cautionary. Yes there is debate about the reasons, probably a mixture of overfishing in some areas and environmental changes. I wouldn't go as far as saying its due to climate change (to me that's a long term change, not short term like is more likely to be the case here) nor that the fishery has collapsed

Balance
15-02-2019, 12:21 PM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12204157

Sanford's salmon exports to China getting held up - no reasons given.

iceman
15-02-2019, 05:31 PM
Fresh salmon too Balance so very linited shelf life. Serious stuff unless it is just related to common delays around Chinese New Year

Balance
15-02-2019, 05:42 PM
Fresh salmon too Balance so very linited shelf life. Serious stuff unless it is just related to common delays around Chinese New Year

Definitely not 'common' delays.

All NZ exporters to China know without exception (let alone a seasoned exporter like Sanford) to ship stuff to China well ahead of CNY.

DHL guy told me that unless airfreighted perishables are 'shipped' one week before CNY at the latest, to forget about the perishables reaching the all important CNY market.

ziptie
15-02-2019, 11:05 PM
The cuts are real even though it is correct that not all the quota will be caught this year. Doesn't mean they won't be able to next year so the reduction is cautionary. Yes there is debate about the reasons, probably a mixture of overfishing in some areas and environmental changes. I wouldn't go as far as saying its due to climate change (to me that's a long term change, not short term like is more likely to be the case here) nor that the fishery has collapsed

I think/hope that we will see more fishery closures in the coming years too many of the quota areas are not being anywhere close to being near their "TACC", most of the operators would probably paint it as thou they are leaving it in the water, where as the truth is more likely that gross overfishing has occurred and the fishery has imploded

would be nice to see the foreign vessels kicked out all together. sure it will cost jobs, but there wont be any jobs when the Fishery has been completely obliterated.

Marilyn Munroe
16-02-2019, 10:54 AM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12204157

Sanford's salmon exports to China getting held up - no reasons given.

This is easily resolvable. All Peter Goodfellow Sanford director and National Party chairman has to to do is pick up the phone and tell His Excellency the Chinese Ambassador if his government want to play silly buggers Peoples Liberation Army soldier and National list MP Jian Yang will be placed at position 120 on the party list in the forthcoming election.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

BlackPeter
16-02-2019, 11:16 AM
This is easily resolvable. All Peter Goodfellow Sanford director and National Party chairman has to to do is pick up the phone and tell His Excellency the Chinese Ambassador if his government want to play silly buggers Peoples Liberation Army soldier and National list MP Jian Yang will be placed at position 120 on the party list in the forthcoming election.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

I'd think the Chinese could not care less on what position of the national party list some MP with Chinese sounding name might sit ...

They see the moves of the bully in the white house as what they are ... pure harrassment and they are going to try their defence strategies first on the weakest link in the Western chain, which unfortunately happens to be NZ.

If you ask me - I don't like the undemocratic Chinese regime and I neither like their posturing, but I can fully understand them in this situation. And lets face it - as long as we do Trumps bidding without reflecting on his selfish reasons (nothing good for NZ will come out of his stance), this is what we deserve.

We exclude Huawei equipment for no good reason. So - whats wrong if the Chinese play the same game with our produce?

winner69
23-05-2019, 07:54 AM
Can’t make out if this contains more good stuff than bad stuff ..but hardly inspiring (a bit like the chart)


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SAN/334902/300315.pdf

iceman
23-05-2019, 08:17 AM
Agree winner it is hardly inspiring. I question why the San Granit had to stay in port for 3 months after the very unfortunate and sad death of the crew member and why, since they were in port this long, they could not get other vessels to catch most of that quota. I still believe Sanford's management has the right idea with where they are heading, with increased focus on quality and prices. But value per greenweight kgs increasing only 1c (from 56c to 57c) between periods is certainly not inspiring and needs to happen MUCH quicker. Needs to be close to $1 within 5-6 years. Getting rid of the pelagic operations will help lift this faster. But to achieve this goal they really need to grab the bull by the horns and invest a lot of money in upgrading processing facilities and vessels, which will cost a lot of money. This is not a problem as the balance sheet should be higher geared to achieve better return. It is the only way if they want to make a serious change. Hopefully their current applications for resource consents for more waterspace in Big Glory Bay will not drag out too long before a positive conclusion.
Happy to be on the sidelines for now.

Marilyn Munroe
23-05-2019, 10:08 PM
But to achieve this goal they really need to grab the bull by the horns and invest a lot of money in upgrading processing facilities and vessels, which will cost a lot of money.


The San Granit will provide a lot of useful learning about how not to upgrade the fleet. Full steam ahead and don't panic when rammed by a sardine.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

iceman
23-08-2019, 11:55 PM
It will be interesting to see shareholders notices on Monday. Looks like around 11% of the Company changed hands yesterday

kiora
24-08-2019, 03:52 AM
It will be interesting to see shareholders notices on Monday. Looks like around 11% of the Company changed hands yesterday

Looking sicker than an El Nino sardine
https://www.financialexpress.com/market/sardine-production-to-be-affected-by-el-nino-says-marine-research-body/1436589/

ziptie
24-08-2019, 06:16 AM
The San Granit will provide a lot of useful learning about how not to upgrade the fleet. Full steam ahead and don't panic when rammed by a sardine.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

The Ocean Friend (Canadian Fibreglass Boat)
was another quality effup by these noddys

Purchased sight unseen only to be found completely unsuitable for Fishing here and completely rotten

RTM
13-09-2019, 09:07 AM
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/us-seafood-ban-plan-causes-stir-in-nz/ar-AAHcFyu?ocid=spartanntp

Might be relevant to Sanford holders.

Sideshow Bob
14-11-2019, 07:34 AM
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344244

Revenue is up! Profit it down, but revenue is up, backing our strategy!

winner69
14-11-2019, 07:40 AM
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344244

Revenue is up! Profit it down, but revenue is up, backing our strategy!

Having not studied SAN for a while should this inspire me to do a bit more study?

Sideshow Bob
14-11-2019, 07:54 AM
Having not studied SAN for a while should this inspire me to do a bit more study?

I haven't studied them.....and not that inspired. PE at 16.5, divvy yield at 3.2%, and the announcement was more about H&S, algal blooms and climate change.
Then all the usual corporate buzzwords - value-add, innovate, engagement etc......doesn't thrill me.

BlackPeter
14-11-2019, 08:03 AM
Having not studied SAN for a while should this inspire me to do a bit more study?

Hard to say ... FWIIW they are on my watch list and I think they are a well managed company, however (nearly) always appear to be too dear. Used to be a holder for some periods of time (not now). But that is true for a number of companies with still climbing SP.

Looking at the results - not really inspirational. Revenue slightly up, earnings slightly down ... and the fatality of a crew member resulting in a three month outage of a ship shows that the business risk is quite significant. There used to be the old saying: never invest into companies which own equipment which flies or floats ...

On the other hand - in the long run this might be a winner ... catching (and growing) healthy protein for a growing world population. Obviously - in which way their business will be impacted by global warming is everybody's best guess.

iceman
14-11-2019, 09:08 AM
Having not studied SAN for a while should this inspire me to do a bit more study?

SAN is facing huge investment need in upgrading both their fleet (scampi fleet, Antarctic longline fleet and inshore fleet) and processing facilities such as the salmon processing on Stewart Island/Bluff. This investment has been postponed far too long and this is the main reason they are not showing much progress towards the $1 per Green Weight Tonne the CEO set as a goal. They simply can not achieve their lofty goals (goals I like a lot) with their current totally outdated assets.

The last 2 vessel purchase decisions have been very poor, as can be seen in posts above, with one of them being a 100% write off without catching a fish and the other one being an old and outdated ship that has performed poorly since arriving here. So I'm happy to stay off the SH register for now but will continue to watch them with interest. They have awhile to go yet to convince me to become a holder again.

hogie
25-11-2019, 12:10 PM
Pulled the trigger and decided to buy some of these today ... hopefully not a mistake :P

BlackPeter
25-11-2019, 01:22 PM
Pulled the trigger and decided to buy some of these today ... hopefully not a mistake :P

What made you decide that today is a good day to buy?

hogie
25-11-2019, 01:40 PM
What made you decide that today is a good day to buy?

Low PE, arguably undervalued, high growth company with decent dividend (ex. 2 days) ... and most of all gut feel :p

Will see how things go!

BlackPeter
25-11-2019, 01:53 PM
Low PE, arguably undervalued, high growth company with decent dividend (ex. 2 days) ... and most of all gut feel :p

Will see how things go!

Interesting ... I guess I probably would call them fairly priced (at a backward PE of 25 and backwards earnings CAGR of 6), but yes, they are clearly cheaper than the FPH's, AIA's and MFT's of this world ... and hey, if the analysts are right with their predictions (forward PE of 14 and forwards earnings CAGR of 10, then I agree, they do look cheap.

Problem is just ... analysts typically a tad optimistic ;).

Anyway - market might well agree with you. All the best!

iceman
08-12-2019, 08:21 AM
An industry publication reporting SAN to upgrade their Scampi fleet as predicted a few posts ago https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2019/12/03/sanford-will-invest-over-30m-in-three-new-scampi-vessels/

Long overdue. I hear they received quotes from 6-8 designers/suppliers and hope they have chosen better than they did with the last 2 disastorous vessel decisions