MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[Beagle]

Maybe we will see a "White Knight" take and bid this up slightly above $6 and build up a blocking stake ?

[peat]

Maybe we will see a "White Knight" take and bid this up slightly above $6 and build up a blocking stake ?

maybe the deal will fall through ?
plenty of time has elapsed for bidders to declare their hand but of course now we know the renegers offer is final so that may draw someone out.
I'm certainly not banking on it and have no position now.
But will not undertake to have no position in the near future - possibly short...

[Beagle]

SUM trading at a 40% premium to NTA and I would argue have quite a big problem to solve with inability to sell their new units. ARV seem about fair value to me. RYM stupidly overpriced as always. I think relative to everything else except OCA, MET is dirt cheap. I will play possum in the headlights for a while and see what happens.

[winner69]

SUM trading at a 40% premium to NTA and I would argue have quite a big problem to solve with inability to sell their new units. ARV seem about fair value to me. RYM stupidly overpriced as always. I think relative to everything else except OCA, MET is dirt cheap. I will play possum in the headlights for a while and see what happens.

This relativity thing of yours will get you into trouble one day ....things are generally ‘relative’ for a reason ....the world is not perfect.

[Beagle]

This relativity thing of yours will get you into trouble one day ....things are generally ‘relative’ for a reason ....the world is not perfect.

I think all the retirement companies have a degree of moisture ingress issues in some of their villages mate. All except MET seem to go about their remedial work as quietly as possible. The calibre of the directors with MET is definitely in question though as is recent level's of profitability results from their development work.
$6.50 would be fair and reasonable.

[BlackPeter]

Sold out this morning.

MET was a great investment for me (more than twice ... ;)), but given the current situation do I see the future down potential being larger than the future up potential. Adding to that - dividends are clearly not on the menu, the board seems divided and if they are competent, then they are quite successful in concealing this fact.

Need to preserve my capital for the upcoming downturn ... and anyway not enough fun to stay on the share register of this company.

[Panda-NZ-]

Yes, who would have thought this dog could be so exciting :t_up:

[winner69]

I think all the retirement companies have a degree of moisture ingress issues in some of their villages mate. All except MET seem to go about their remedial work as quietly as possible. The calibre of the directors with MET is definitely in question though as is recent level's of profitability results from their development work.
$6.50 would be fair and reasonable.

I didn’t mention leaks or water egress ...that’s probably not the reason for the ‘relatively’ low price to NTA

[Beagle]

I didn’t mention leaks or water egress ...that’s probably not the reason for the ‘relatively’ low price to NTA

Go on then... humour me with the full list of reasons you think this is s dog.

[winner69]

Go on then... humour me with the full list of reasons you think this is s dog.

Far too many ...but the market per se seems to know most of them and that’s why they the bottom of the pile.

Always got to be a laggard .....will always be some about the average ...and one has to be the best

[Beagle]

Every dog has its day. So far today nearly a full 2% of the entire shares have changed hands at a VWAP of $5.88 and its only lunchtime. I doubt people are buying in that volume at that price plus brokerage to make just 2% in the next 4 months, (6% per annum with an uncertain outcome). Hmmm...this could still be quite interesting to see where this goes. Think I'll just https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=kA%2fiAgHr&id=4D4041E877054FE4E7857D74C971B6DE2092B46D&thid=OIP.kA_iAgHrHVk6z9rQ6ZlUKgHaD7&mediaurl=http%3a%2f%2fwww.toledoblade.com%2fimage% 2f2006%2f07%2f23%2f800x_b1_cCM_z%2fToledo-Magazine-Playing-Possum.jpg&exph=425&expw=800&q=possums+in+the+headlight&simid=608020163224011093&ck=D0F165B85FB37C2ACF74D8AA2B62527E&selectedIndex=19&ajaxhist=0 for a while and see what happens.

I think this whippet might still have a good turn of speed left in it :)

[winner69]

Every dog has its day. So far today nearly a full 2% of the entire shares have changed hands at a VWAP of $5.88 and its only lunchtime. I doubt people are buying in that volume at that price plus brokerage to make just 2% in the next 4 months, (6% per annum with an uncertain outcome). Hmmm...this could still be quite interesting to see where this goes. Think I'll just https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=kA%2fiAgHr&id=4D4041E877054FE4E7857D74C971B6DE2092B46D&thid=OIP.kA_iAgHrHVk6z9rQ6ZlUKgHaD7&mediaurl=http%3a%2f%2fwww.toledoblade.com%2fimage% 2f2006%2f07%2f23%2f800x_b1_cCM_z%2fToledo-Magazine-Playing-Possum.jpg&exph=425&expw=800&q=possums+in+the+headlight&simid=608020163224011093&ck=D0F165B85FB37C2ACF74D8AA2B62527E&selectedIndex=19&ajaxhist=0 for a while and see what happens.

I think this whippet might still have a good turn of speed left in it :)

It’s really more than 2% of the company ...isn’t 20% ‘frozen’

[Beagle]

It’s really more than 2% of the company ...isn’t 20% ‘frozen’

Good point. 2.6% of shares, (not previously committed) at this point in time.

[flyer]

so you don't reckon its a done deal at $6? I too was looking to sell out this morning but still holding. At $6 takeover price I may as well however if there are signs that there still could be more to come then can hold for a little longer and your right Beagle - volume is higher today, highest its been since 9th April.

[Beagle]

Who knows flyer, maybe, maybe not....Winner sent me this when we were talking about dogs today....probably a subliminal message that he also expects many more twists and turns yet to come with this fiasco https://www.instagram.com/p/CCe17LQhhOd/?igshid=14luv3yzyxxlz...or perhaps he meant to portray the boards recent behaviour :lol:

[winner69]

Winner sent me this when we were talking about dogs today....probably a subliminal message that he also expects many more twists and turns yet to come with this fiasco
https://www.instagram.com/p/CCe17LQhhOd/?igshid=14luv3yzyxxlz...or perhaps he meant to portray the boards recent behaviour :lol:

Love the woof woof when he’s told to stop ....is that the subliminal message ;)

[Beagle]

Love the woof woof when he’s told to stop ....is that the subliminal message ;)

Speaking of woof woof's...its very quiet on this thread today considering the circumstances. I reckon many have taken the money and run. Only those with dogged determination are left ;)

Vote NO to stop the highly manipulative foreign buyer trying to pillage quality New Zealand assets at an egregiously low rock bottom price and send a message to all the directors that voted for this pillaging to resign in disgrace.

[JeremyALD]

It's strange, I have made a fair bit off this shambles - but at the same time I feel pretty underwhelmed with the way things have ended up.

Imo the share price would currently be in the low $5s with NO offer on the table, so an offer of $6 seems very poor. The SP was above $6 in April 2018!

The fact so many institutions such as Super are willing to cut and run though must speak to the quality of leadership and / or the company.

[Beagle]

By the time this is voted on in late September it will have been a year since the last dividend was paid in September 2019.
Not only have directors sold out based on a deep discount to NTA, they have sold out shareholders in terms of their rights to sue for $7 AND just to rub salt into the wound they have sold shareholders out of dividends for the last year as well.

[Raz]

By the time this is voted on in late September it will have been a year since the last dividend was paid in September 2019.
Not only have directors sold out based on a deep discount to NTA, they have sold out shareholders in terms of their rights to sue for $7 AND just to rub salt into the wound they have sold shareholders out of dividends for the last year as well.

Bingo..your arguing with yourself..personally closed out the trade today, in essence for the reasons you mentioned above. Beagle you are now having a great debate with yourself :)

[dabsman]

I wouldnt piss on these directors if they were burning but...I feel there is one more act in this tragedy to play out

[Balance]

I wouldnt piss on these directors if they were burning but...I feel there is one more act in this tragedy to play out

Come on, dabsman - the directors have no choice but to accept the majority decision of shareholders and the majority being NZ Super & hedge funds are happy to accept $6.00.

The alternative is to go for a spill where they get voted out and get replaced by directors appointed by the majority shareholders who will then accept the $6.00 offer. What's the point of that?

We need to be aware of commercial realities.

[dabsman]

What about the 5 or more years of underperformance? Can't blame them for that? Its weird as I'm quite angry at the capitulation while it is my best performing share in the last 6 months after selling and buying again

[Balance]

What about the 5 or more years of underperformance? Can't blame them for that? Its weird as I'm quite angry at the capitulation while it is my best performing share in the last 6 months after selling and buying again

The underperformance is a different matter - the directors have to deal with the here and now of a majority of shareholders (especially the hedge funds who paid top dollars for an arb game which went wrong) being happy with $6.00.

Dragging this thing out serves no-one but the lawyers.

Seriously, it's not like there are no other retirement village stocks on the NZX to invest in.

PS. I am as cheesed off as anyone as I believe $6.50 is the fair price but it is what it is.

Be grateful that you have the chance to enjoy a double dip in MetLife - does not come all that often! Spare a thought for those who panicked and sold out in huge volumes at under $4.00!

[Beagle]

By the time this is voted on in late September it will have been a year since the last dividend was paid in September 2019.
Not only have directors sold out based on a deep discount to NTA, they have sold out shareholders in terms of their rights to sue for $7 AND just to rub salt into the wound they have sold shareholders out of dividends for the last year as well.


Bingo..your arguing with yourself..personally closed out the trade today, in essence for the reasons you mentioned above. Beagle you are now having a great debate with yourself :)

Yeah I am of two minds about this for sure. Everyone seems to have forgotten that MET had a compound average growth rate in underlying earnings in the 5 years before Covid 19 of 14% per annum.
Even the so called independent valuers rather conveniently looked at the growth rate for the last 3 years when the Auckland market has ostensibly been flat.
Its been a great ride...

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12347856 (paywalled article)

It doesn't take too much thought to conclude the New Zealand Superannuation Fund has sold NZ Inc down the river when it comes to the Metlifecare takeover.

[bottomfeeder]

Yeah, just because MET is worth $6.50, doesnt mean we have to sell it. Now if they offered $8, then it would be sell, sell, sell.

[Beagle]

Been reported in the media today, see link above, that this is basically a done deal at $6.
$6.00 / 5.88 = a possible 2% extra return but looks like from a brief overview of the revised scheme implantation agreement this won't be paid out until (at earliest late October)...with the history of the background of delay's with the deal so far I would suggest if it happens and all the hoops are jumped including overseas office approval and shareholder approval a more realistically likely date for shareholders to plan on is late November. So...about 4 maybe four and a half months to make 2%, assuming there isn't some fine print somewhere in the 70 plus pages of the new scheme agreement that gives EQT some other loophole to get out if the things to turn to complete custard here or overseas for whatever reason. Hmmm

[Beagle]

Yeah, just because MET is worth $6.50, doesnt mean we have to sell it. Now if they offered $8, then it would be sell, sell, sell.

I have reluctantly accepted that when the valuers, directors and the N.Z. super fund are effectively working against you, its time to move on as the frustration of trying to eek out some further modest gains just isn't worth the effort and the prospect of same are slim to none. Lets not forget there is real downside risk here if the deal is voted down.

[flyer]

There is large buying depth this morning following on yesterdays higher volume. Why would buyers be lined up at $5.89 etc to get $6?

[thebusinessman]

'twas enough of the rollercoaster for me today, sold at $5.88 and happy with that. As Beagle says the extra with all the associated risks between now and October didn't stack up for me, even if somehow they pull a miracle increase out of that buyer...

[Beagle]

There is large buying depth this morning following on yesterdays higher volume. Why would buyers be lined up at $5.89 etc to get $6?

Possibility of a better offer cannot be completely discounted...something I considered but think is unlikely. (Acknowledge anything can happen though !).

[dobby41]

Why would buyers be lined up at $5.89 etc to get $6?

Because they haven't thought it through?

[Mrbuyit]

I expected some pull back, but it hasn't happened (yet) it seems like the $6 price is a cop-out even with some decent recent gains... happy enough to be in at low 4's not so long ago and out this morning at 5.89.
Im already overweight in OCA, and not sure where best store the funds from Met.. Perhaps some more ARV, but would be happier in the high 1.30's low 1.40s....
decisions...

[Balance]

Because they haven't thought it through?

11c on $5.89 = 1.86% in 3 months = 7.56% pa

[Beagle]

11c on $5.89 = 1.86% in 3 months = 7.56% pa

Late October at very earliest Balance. I would be working on 11 cents in 4 1/2 months (assume end of November).

[traineeinvestor]

Why would buyers be lined up at $5.89 etc to get $6?

Because they didn't learn the lesson from what happened when the first offer was withdrawn.

[Balance]

Late October at very earliest Balance. I would be working on 11 cents in 4 1/2 months (assume end of November).

11c on $5.89 = 1.86% in 4.5 months = 5% pa

That's their game - fixed interest & arb funds love these kind of returns.

[Panda-NZ-]

Thanks swedes this is probably my best stock given the timing I bought and sold in.

The swedish company has made some very rational & textbook decisions and it's our own fault we don't put the fence up.

[Beagle]

11c on $5.89 = 1.86% in 4.5 months = 5% pa

That's their game - fixed interest & arb funds love these kind of returns.

You would think there's some chance of it being voted down by shareholders and also a very very slight chance the Overseas investment office won't approve this, (especially if there's political interference from Labour governing alone) and also some chance that somewhere in more than 70 pages of detail there's some slight chance for EQT to cancel the deal again if something they don't like happens ? Don't these funds consider these risks ?

I think if it gets voted down it could return to the low $4's...in which case its all aboard the rollercoaster for a third ride :D

[Bjauck]

Thanks swedes this is probably my best stock given the timing I bought and sold in.

The swedish company has made some very rational & textbook decisions and it's our own fault we don't put the fence up.

Systemic NZ tax and investment environment issues?
It is no surprise NZ companies keep on getting bought up by foreigners. or transferring overseas.

Swedish share market capitalisation as percent of nominal GDP in December 2019 = 154%
NZ share market capitalisation as percent of nominal GDP in December 2019 = 52%


https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/new-zealand/market-capitalization--nominal-gdp

[peat]

You would think there's some chance of it being voted down by shareholders and also a very very slight chance the Overseas investment office won't approve this, (especially if there's political interference from Labour governing alone) and also some chance that somewhere in more than 70 pages of detail there's some slight chance for EQT to cancel the deal again if something they don't like happens ? Don't these funds consider these risks ?

APVG should be shunned because of their immoral behaviour and the OIO are the very people to do it.

The funds are insane if they dont consider the risks - as I said recently - picking up dimes in front of steamrollers.

MET will become a short again at some stage during the next few months before (if) settled.

[Panda-NZ-]

Systemic NZ tax and investment environment issues?
It is no surprise NZ companies keep on getting bought up by foreigners. or transferring overseas.

Swedish share market capitalisation as percent of nominal GDP in December 2019 = 154%
NZ share market capitalisation as percent of nominal GDP in December 2019 = 52%


https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/new-zealand/market-capitalization--nominal-gdp

Europe has a massive internal market filled with friendly countries with extensive personal and economic ties. Australia has had super for decades.

We are unique in that we are being bought up by countries we have no relationship with and its mostly transactional.

[Beagle]

APVG should be shunned because of their immoral behaviour and the OIO are the very people to do it.

The funds are insane if they dont consider the risks - as I said recently - picking up dimes in front of steamrollers.

MET will become a short again at some stage during the next few months before (if) settled.

Wouldn't it be a real "shame" if we had the opportunity to buy back in around $4 again. MET has a great track record so far of being the gift you give yourself that keeps on giving back ;)

[Panda-NZ-]

Yes wouldn't that be great. :)

It's sort of like the fear fall at rainbows end.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnAP1ZnYD4w

[winner69]

WOW - house prices on fire

Look at Auckland - Additionally, Auckland’s median house prices increased by 9.2% to $928,000 up from $850,000 at the same time last year and up from $904,500 in May this year. This was the second highest median price on record for the City of Sails.

That’s huge - MET large exposure in Auckland

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2020/June/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20June%202020.pdf

[Beagle]

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2019/Residential/December/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20December%202019.pdf

Here's the December 2019 stat's when NTA was assessed @ $7.00.
I note the medium Auckland price has increased from $890K in December 2019 to $928K in June 2020 up 4.3%
and that the N.Z. medium price has increased from $629K in December 2019 to $639K in June 2020 up 1.6%

NTA should be well above $7 both in terms of real estate prices and accrued earnings for the last 6 months !

The directors and Korda Mentha with their so called independent valuation should be deeply ashamed of themselves as should Carolyn Steele especially who is a director and representative of the NZ Super fund who undertake to take a long term view. What a bunch of pathetically weak so called "professional" representatives. They should resign in disgrace.

EQT must be laughing all the way to the bank thinking about the prospect of what easy meat they've made of this.

[moimoi]

Indeed Beagle,

And couple the AK Real Estate stats with.....

Summerset CEO Julian Cook said,“Through the level four lockdown period sales and settlements of occupation rights largely ceased. This had a significant impact on the business.

”“However, sales and settlements have largely recovered and we are seeing sales enquiry and sales rates marginally stronger than is typical for this time of year,” said Mr Cook.

and you then obtain no reason for any "Guardian" of Superannuation to be signing up in advance of everyone else to a low-ball "offer" of $6...........

GLTA.

[winner69]

Should read the Arvida announcement ....gains per sale up 44%

If MET were doing that wow.

[Beagle]

They probably are. EQT directors have almost pulled off the heist of the year, maybe of the decade.
Hope other shareholders hang around and vote it down but with nearly 5% of the free float traded today in just one day I think most dissenters are voting with their feet like almost all on here have already.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Cashed in this morning. This was the gift that just kept giving...

It is a shame though that we'll be losing a company off the NZX at this price.

[dubya]

Cashed in this morning. This was the gift that just kept giving...

It is a shame though that we'll be losing a company off the NZX at this price.

Yep I did the same too, and I think the shrewd Swedes will still be partying up.

[Beagle]

$35m of stock already changed hands today...after nearly $50m changed hands yesterday. Fair to say the dissenters are jumping ship and unless there's other interest in taking this over at a higher price the Swedes have got themselves a genuine bargain. Clean the incompetent board and management out, instill disciplines in their development model and they'll reap very strong gains in the years to come.

A sad end appears to be coming to what could have been a very good company with better management and governance. I have some faint hope that some local institution is building up a blocking stake and this will stay Kiwi owned but if the super fund and the directors are so keen to sell shareholders down the river...you've got to wonder why they'd bother.

[winner69]

If cash going back into the sector RYM and SUM seem to be popular as an investment with a few tempted to have a punt on OCA

[Beagle]

If cash going back into the sector RYM and SUM seem to be popular as an investment with a few tempted to have a punt on OCA

No worries about their investments in Victoria and SUM's consistent inability to sell the units they build or their sometimes very clumsy consenting processes, she'll be right. Which company really is the punt with the risks and metrics they're trading on ?

[Onion]

$35m of stock already changed hands today...after nearly $50m changed hands yesterday. Fair to say the dissenters are jumping ship and unless there's other interest in taking this over at a higher price the Swedes have got themselves a genuine bargain.

There's a big imbalance in depth at present. No shortage of buyers at 5.90 or less - about 7 times more than sellers.

[winner69]

Some bright spark on here should start tracking the value of trades for each to see if the met cash is actually staying in the sector ...could be interesting

[winner69]

Suppose Kord Mentha working hard to finish their independent report

Probably need to tighten up the valuation. The $6.90 was outrageously high which only resulted in a very wide range ($5.80 to $6.90 far too wide but probably politically acceptable).

So KM will say $5.70 to $6.30 eh. ...and $6.00 the mid-point to keep everybody happy. ....afte all $6.00 is a 15% premium to price before announcement if new deal.

[Jay]

Suppose Kord Mentha working hard to finish their independent report

Probably need to tighten up the valuation. The $6.90 was outrageously high which only resulted in a very wide range ($5.80 to $6.90 far too wide but probably politically acceptable).

So KM will say $5.70 to $6.30 eh. ...and $6.00 the mid-point to keep everybody happy. ....afte all $6.00 is a 15% premium to price before announcement if new deal.

I think you may be right winner very convenient eh!- Anyway I'm now out, but where to invest the funds???

[fish]

I think you may be right winner very convenient eh!- Anyway I'm now out, but where to invest the funds???

I am just 1/2 out-at least until I find a better place to invest.
Would be interesting to let us all know where you invest

[NOCASH]

Hi guys, MET will definitely be de-listed at $6.00, what is the time frame for this to be wrapped up? i can see a quick profit here buying in at $5.90 and waiting to cash in at $6.00 brokerage free? Just the time frame that will put people off.. if they will not receive there cheque by xmas, its better to keep the money in the bank?

[Beagle]

I think MET can do about $90m underlying profit in FY21 which equates to eps of 42.19 cents. At $6 EQT are paying 14.2 times FY21 earnings.
I think OCA can do about $60m underlying profit in FY21 which equates to eps of 9.75 cents. Applying the same 14.2 times FY21 forecast PE suggests a fair price for OCA of $1.38.

[winner69]

I think MET can do about $90m underlying profit in FY21 which equates to eps of 42.19 cents. At $6 EQT are paying 14.2 times FY21 earnings.
I think OCA can do about $60m underlying profit in FY21 which equates to eps of 9.75 cents. Applying the same 14.2 times FY21 forecast PE suggests a fair price for OCA of $1.38.

So OCA could pay 5.8 cents divie (top policy range) ...at your $1.38 that’s still 4% plus yield (TRINA would love)

So 38% upside from today to fair value plus a decent divie

Why hold MET until the end ...May as well buy OCA

[NOCASH]

So OCA could pay 5.8 cents divie (top policy range) ...at your $1.38 that’s still 4% plus yield (TRINA would love)

So 38% upside from today to fair value plus a decent divie

Why hold MET until the end ...May as well buy OCA

Holding MET is sure $6.00, holding OCA there is more risk associated.

[Beagle]

How sure is the $6 ? What happens to the share price if shareholders vote the takeover down ?

Looks pretty good eh Winner but we need to see what last year's financials look like next week before getting too excited.

[winner69]

How sure is the $6 ? What happens to the share price if shareholders vote the takeover down ?

Looks pretty good eh Winner but we need to see what last year's financials look like next week before getting too excited.

No proactive provisioning and assumption changes to ensure in upper end of that underlying profit guidance they gave a while ago

Wouldn’t want the NTA to go much below 7 bucks would we ...even though real profit might be bad

[Beagle]

I couldn't care less about MET now mate. I was talking about OCA's reporting next week.
Director Carolyn Steele so called guardian of the superfund has done anything but taken a steely approach. Sold all shareholders down the river...
Other directors gave away shareholders rights to sue for $7 for this new totally "pathetic" offer.
What a totally disgraceful and pathetic. A fiasco from beginning to sad end. A very lucrative fiasco for many of us but a fiasco nonetheless.

[winner69]

I couldn't care less about MET now mate. I was talking about OCA's reporting next week.
Director Carolyn Steele so called guardian of the superfund has done anything but taken a steely approach. Sold all shareholders down the river...
Other directors gave away shareholders rights to sue for $7 for this new totally "pathetic" offer.
What a totally disgraceful and pathetic. A fiasco from beginning to sad end. A very lucrative fiasco for many of us but a fiasco nonetheless.

in your eyes I assume the Chair of Kingfish and those other funds is now persona non gratia as well

Must have thought it deserved to be vlued much less than sum other companies Kingfish hold heaps off

[Beagle]

Yes a pathetic effort all round by all involved. Earlier in the week your mate Kim said real estate prices had fallen 15% or thereabouts and Carolyn Steele committed to the $6 figure on behalf of the super fund. (Actualy real estate medium prices are well up on 31 December 2019 figures as we know now from official REINZ stat's).
Not making excuses for the rest of the board but they set the tone and its was obvious the super fund is an extremely keen seller as were overseas arbitrage funds.
Other directors should have told them to "harden-up" and demanded $6.50.
I won't rule out buying back the minimum shareholding just to attend the special meeting and tell them what a bunch of pathetic wimps they are, in exactly those words.
They cost me many thousands of extra dollars profit so it could be quite a cathartic experience.
What a complete embarrassment its going to be for the board if monthly official REINZ sales stat's show prices continue to go up between now and the time of the meeting. July and August 2020 stat's will be out before that meeting in late September. Hope they're really strong.

[Cyclical]

Yes a pathetic effort all round by all involved. Earlier in the week your mate Kim said real estate prices had fallen 15% or thereabouts and Carolyn Steele committed to the $6 figure on behalf of the super fund. (Actualy real estate medium prices are well up on 31 December 2019 figures as we know now from official REINZ stat's).
Not making excuses for the rest of the board but they set the tone and its was obvious the super fund is an extremely keen seller as were overseas arbitrage funds.
Other directors should have told them to "harden-up" and demanded $6.50.
I won't rule out buying back the minimum shareholding just to attend the special meeting and tell them what a bunch of pathetic wimps they are, in exactly those words.
They cost me many thousands of extra dollars profit so it could be quite a cathartic experience.
What a complete embarrassment its going to be for the board if monthly official REINZ sales stat's show prices continue to go up between now and the time of the meeting. July and August 2020 stat's will be out before that meeting in late September. Hope they're really strong.

I probably don't feel quite as strongly about it as you, Beagle (unfortunately I sold out at ~$4.20 as didn't want to line lawyer's pockets for a lengthy period, but now have my tail between my legs of course), but I agree it has been pathetic looking at it from the sidelines. EQT will be over the moon at how they've managed to dupe NZ inc out of another listed company that surely has a bright future (even with rubbish leadership, you'd be hard pressed to fail over the long term with the aging population and impending asset price inflation this period is going to bring us). A sad turn of events indeed for the NZX.

A potential upside though, for those of us still with interests in the industry, is given EQT's cunning (or should that be dirty?) negotiating skills, maybe they can help keep future governments honest in terms of funding allocation for this sector...

[Cyclical]

Holding MET is sure $6.00, holding OCA there is more risk associated.


How sure is the $6 ? What happens to the share price if shareholders vote the takeover down ?

Assuming that $6 is a risk free sure thing, that 10c you're holding out for is about a 1.7% gain over however many months it's going to take. OCA have a divvy coming up, that will be 1.5 to 2x that probably (pre-tax mind), and the likelihood of OCA not grabbing at least another 5% capital gain at some point between now and your EQT cheque arriving I would say is very slim. And if you were taking the long term view, then OCA seems to me to be a no brainer.

Hold out for that 10c NOCASH? Think I'd rather have SOMECASH right now.

[Beagle]

Maybe wishful thinking on Govt funding Cyclical. I've made too much money to be too badly bent up out of shape about this fiasco but I can't stand board incompetence so part of me would love to give them a real roasting at that special meeting...but in reality my energy is probably best directed elsewhere.

I guess the dirty truth is with the level of "professionalism" of that board and a broken development model maybe $6 "as is" isn't a toally outrageous price. Obviously Carolyn Steele as representative for the super fund's 20% doesn't think much of management's ability to add value through development does she !...and let's be honest, she's in a far better more informed position to asess the situation than we are !

I haven't redeployed my MET sales proceeds yet. I have truckloads of OCA already and it seems like such a complete no brainer to put much more there it makes me wonder what I think I know but might not know about next week's result. I am holding off reinvesting MET proceeds until I see the result. Probably a curse being a bean-counter sometimes...the perceived need to see actual results before making a potentially substantial further investment.

[Cyclical]

Maybe wishful thinking on Govt funding Cyclical. I've made too much monry to be too badly bent up out of shape about thsi fiasco but I can;t stand board incompetence. I guess the dirty truth is with the level of "professionalism" of that board and a broken development model maybe $6 as is isn't a toally outrageous price. Obviously Carolyn Steele as representative for the super fund's 20% doesn't think much of management's ability to add value through development does she...and let's be honest, she's in a far better more informed position to asess the situation !

There is that. Hopefully those buggers don't come along and see the sound management and potential synergies through snapping up OCA too...or at least I hope there are enough of us around to say no when it happens!


I haven't redeployed my MET sales proceeds yet. I have truckloads of OCA already and it seems like such a complete no brainer to put them there it makes me wonder what I think I know but might not know about next week's result. I am holding off reinvesting until I see the result. Probably a curse being a bean-counter sometimes...the perceived need to see actual results before making a potentially substantial further investment.

At least that parcel you bought the other week is no longer in the red ;) Let me know when you find sound alternate options to park finds that aren't already overpriced! I'm looking, but honestly, the disconnect...

[Beagle]

Yeah mate it wasn't much fun being about 10 cents underwater on that extra 50K I bought @ $1. Average is just under 70 cents but that didn't ease the discomfort any lol
The size of the disconnect between the market and underlying economy is really messing with my head and I'm absolutely certain I'm not the only one finding it bewildering !

Reported on CNBC this morning. Global stimulus (previously committed and planned) by all central bankers worldwide $29 Trillion, total size of the world's sharemarkets $54 Trillion...what could possibly go wrong :eek2:

The thought of EQT or someone else coming after OCA really worries me. So few GARP stocks left on the NZX its a real concern.

For what its worth I bought a few more BRM today. Only fair value at 69 cents. Expecting another warrant issue soon.

[Baa_Baa]

@beagle for your mental health and objectivity, move on with your handsome profit on Met, comforted in the knowledge you barked first. Just don’t bother dwelling here, it is not your business anymore and free up some headspace for the next opportunity.

Secondly imo tune up your TA so that you can disconnect from the bewildering market performance vs the broader economic situation. It is not something that can be rationalised, it just is. TA will detach you from the apparent craziness and help you time your entries and exits. TA has no emotion, it just is, just act on it.

Hope this helps. Glad you took your profits, well deserved and hope this underperformer in the sector doesn’t drag you down unnecessarily anymore.

All the best
BAA

[bottomfeeder]

I'm waiting for the $6-00 as well no brokerage. If it all falls through, I will be pleased then I can buy some more. Safest bet for the coming financial depression. Already have loads of OCA, and don't want to chase the price. Just hoping no takeover for OCA coming either.

[Beagle]

Much appreciated Baa Baa, thank you. Must admit I did find it quite hard to hit the sell button the other day, sometimes a bit strange...some sort of weird emotional attachment can creep in to stocks that have made your bank account a lot fatter. No room for emotion with investing though is there and something I had to remind myself as encouragement to push that sell button. Feels good now its been done.

OCA looks very good on the charts....and will look especially good if it can break above $1.03 :t_up:

[NOCASH]

I don't understand why the SP not at $5.99 or $6.00 isn't a sure sure deal? its a no brainier.. if ones term deposit up for renewal, take it out and buy at $5.91 wait for 4 months...

[dabsman]

I don't understand why the SP not at $5.99 or $6.00 isn't a sure sure deal? its a no brainier.. if ones term deposit up for renewal, take it out and buy at $5.91 wait for 4 months...

The 10c is the market pricing in the risk of it not going thru. I havent sold yet but took $6.91 last time around as hanging on for a small upside can be risky and it certainly was...

I still think this has more to play out so hesitant to sell. I'm on over 150% profit on this one the last 12 months so I cant complain - but still dont mind one more rollercoaster ride

[BlackPeter]

I don't understand why the SP not at $5.99 or $6.00 isn't a sure sure deal? its a no brainier.. if ones term deposit up for renewal, take it out and buy at $5.91 wait for 4 months...

Just look at the last sure sure deal ... they all are only sure until one of the party decides to change their mind or until the circumstances change. Did happen in the past, but for sure won't happen again :confused:?

Hint ... 4 months is a looong time in an exponentially growing Covid pandemic. NZ might have a second wave. Sweden will have an amazing second wave. People might run out of money or see better opportunities. Rules and regulations might change.

[NOCASH]

Just look at the last sure sure deal ... they all are only sure until one of the party decides to change their mind or until the circumstances change. Did happen in the past, but for sure won't happen again :confused:?

Hint ... 4 months is a looong time in an exponentially growing Covid pandemic. NZ might have a second wave. Sweden will have an amazing second wave. People might run out of money or see better opportunities. Rules and regulations might change.


The chances of not going through is slim? Would you say 80% chance it will go through or is it a flip of a coin 50/50 Heads or Tail?

[BlackPeter]

The chances of not going through is slim? Would you say 80% chance it will go through or is it a flip of a coin 50/50 Heads or Tail?

Who knows (given the uncertainty around the pandemic) and what relevance would any assumption have given that one set of data points is not statistically relevant?

Either the deal goes through or it does not, but it clearly is not a sure deal until the cheque is in the bank ...

Why don't you ask the market? The current discount clearly shows that the market thinks a deal is more likely than no deal, but the likelyhood is not 100%. I do agree with that assessment ;):

[Beagle]

Current share price is suggesting the deal is an absolute certainity and the 9-10 cent share price difference is merely time value of money for the approx 4 months until you get the $6.

Thing is, its not certain. Its somethign shareholders have to vote on which could go either way and something the overseas investment office and high court have to decide on. Also is there an escape clause in there somewhere in that 70 plus pages of the detail of the new scheme in the fine print that lets them escape if they decide to walk away such as in the case of widespread Covid spread in the community sometime in the next 4 months ? What have the parties agreed as compensation if APVG walk away ? From a quick skim read of the documments it looks like not very much :eek2:

If there was just a 10% chance the scheme would fail, (not hard to make the case its more than that given there are 3-4 possible things that could trip it up), and one assumes the price retreats to $4 if this happens then a 10% chance of a potential $1.90 decline (19 cents) would not appear to be priced correctly by the market. 10 cents difference for time value of money and 19 cents difference for the possibility of a negative outcome would suggest a fair current share price is $5.71 not $5.90 which is why I sold at the latter figure. I for one would be rolling on the floor with laughter if I had a third opportunity to ride this fun rollercoaster :D

[Onion]

Current share price is suggesting the deal is an absolute certainity and the 9-10 cent share price difference is merely time value of money for the approx 4 months until you get the $6.

Thing is, its not certain. Its somethign shareholders have to vote on which could go either way and something the overseas investment office and high court have to decide on. Also is there an escape clause in there somewhere in that 70 plus pages of the detail of the new scheme in the fine print that lets them escape if they decide to walk away such as in the case of widespread Covid spread in the community sometime in the next 4 months ? What have the parties agreed as compensation if APVG walk away ? From a quick skim read of the documments it looks like not very much :eek2:

If there was just a 10% chance the scheme would fail, (not hard to make the case its more than that given there are 3-4 possible things that could trip it up), and one assumes the price retreats to $4 if this happens then a 10% chance of a potential $1.90 decline (19 cents) would not appear to be priced correctly by the market. 10 cents difference for time value of money and 19 cents difference for the possibility of a negative outcome would suggest a fair current share price is $5.71 not $5.90 which is why I sold at the latter figure. I for one would be rolling on the floor with laughter if I had a third opportunity to ride this fun rollercoaster :D

Persuasively put Beagle.

So I dropped my ask price and am now out (again).

[bullfrog]

You do make a persuasive argument Beagle however, the first deal was struck before Covid, this deal takes into account Covid, and a second/third wave. I'm pretty sure that APVG have done their homework wrt Covid effects and that makes this a vote of confidence in the NZ property market. I reckon at $5.9, punters are betting that there's a fair chance we may see it rejected. I'm thinking $6.35.

EQT backed out of the $7 deal on the assumption that Metlife's value would reduce by $100m, and it's profits by at least 10% in 2020/21. There was also some guff about lack of communication... Has this happened?


It's not cheap to put together a bid like this, and NZ has proven that if there's one place in the world that can handle the virus, it's us. Shareholders should be thinking there's a little more juice left in this lemon.

[Beagle]

Baa Baa made a good point yesterday that I should move on and leave this alone but for the benifet of trying to help others understand the risks I will opine once more.

Fair enough bullfrog but people should read the full agreement. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/356098/326226.pdf
I'd be concerned by things like clauses 14.1(a), 14 1(b) and 14.1 (c) which enable the bidder to withdraw.
When you dig into it all they would have to allege is breech of good faith with disclosure materials under due diligence and the legal games would be on again.
Break fee and reverse break fee, (both $12.8m) is agreed by both parties to be the total limit of their ability to claim from each other under some prescribed circumstances.

What is the bet that APVG has only had guaranteed letters of credit from EQT to fund just this amount and any attempt to sue EQT for breeches outside of the scope of those that the parties agree is limited to the break fee, (i.e. a non prescribed event breech) i.e. sue for specific performance or more than $12.8m would involve attempted enforcement in a European court.

What we do know for certain is EQT is a highly experienced and extremely wily customer who has walked all over the very inexperienced directors of MET.
Heaven forbid what has happened with an explosion in Corora virus in Melbourne with over 400 cases today happens here https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12348875 but if it did I would bet my last dollar APVG and EQT would find some excuse to walk away. Plenty of small holes in the fine print for a weasel to jump through if they really want too. If they did walk away there would be no point spending tens of millions on a multi year legal goose chase chasing such a pathetic deal and MET directors would just roll over and play nice and might even invite them back for a third deal at $5 :eek2:

I doubt you'll get a fair price which should be at least $6.50 in my opinion as the directors, the super fund and the valuers (by concentrating on just the last 3 years of very modest growth) have ostensibly sold shareholders down the river.

[see weed]

Thanks Beagle, for all your input and info. Sold half my holding yesterday at good profit and was never a long term holder anyway. There is lots of other stocks to chase and make money on. The way I see it, I would probably make the same profit or more somewhere else than wait 3 or 4 months for MET to go up to $6 or $6.50. Will sell the other half next week, and am happy with the 1.65 profit made so far:).

[whome]

See weed, would you be deploying those funds into a milky company with a 2 in it!

[peat]

Was mulling over shorting this again over the weekend.
As before the risk of the price moving upwards is relatively minimal. If no one else gets involved the loss would be 10c / share.
The possibility of the price moving downwards is really there and if the bid failed for any reason price could easily drop $1 or more.
Thems not bad odds.

[see weed]

See weed, would you be deploying those funds into a milky company with a 2 in it!
Not at the moment. Buying into CEN last couple of weeks, hoping for a big div strip:).

[Beagle]

Was mulling over shorting this again over the weekend.
As before the risk of the price moving upwards is relatively minimal. If no one else gets involved the loss would be 10c / share.
The possibility of the price moving downwards is really there and if the bid failed for any reason price could easily drop $1 or more.
Thems not bad odds.

I think all the dissenters are jumping ship mate and the 90% chance of it going through at $6.00 that I opined about last week is probably a pretty good guess.
Not enough in it for me to bother about give the probability suggests fair value is $5.71 but if the deal fails and its back to before this whole fiasco started in the low $4's that would be fun :)

[bullfrog]

I think all the dissenters are jumping ship mate and the 90% chance of it going through at $6.00 that I opined about last week is probably a pretty good guess.
Not enough in it for me to bother about give the probability suggests fair value is $5.71 but if the deal fails and its back to before this whole fiasco started in the low $4's that would be fun :)

All indications are that $6 is a goer, I compared it with TLT for instance, when management were extremely vocal in their rejection, still got TLT, and happy that I resisted that short term temptress, thou name is IFT. Sold today to the big buyer at 5.9

[dabsman]

I sold out a second time. Waiting on a third bite haha. Bought me a 67 Mustang - thank you MET directors

[bohemian]

Must be time to thank you a second time Mr Beagle this time out at 5.79. Really appreciate what you have given this thread and me. I'm now over in OCA topping up with some of the MET proceeds and reading all of your posts, Cheers.

[Beagle]

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=ySuFoDjZ&id=15E4108C7CB03C2B7B8D8E00E0DA947B23987CB6&thid=OIP.ySuFoDjZ5PwAj2E5ehe3PQHaE7&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fwww.rover.com%2fblog%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2014%2f08%2fsmiling-beagle.jpg&exph=473&expw=710&q=happy+beagle&simid=608051254610167643&ck=4FB66F1B8EA9C19462578453C04FF52F&selectedIndex=0&ajaxhist=0 :)

[turnip]

Escaped from quarantine facility then went to a retirement villiage.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/122257635/isolation-escapee-knocked-on-door-in-nearby-retirement-village

Not enough just to test returnees for covid, we should be testing for stupid as well.

[dreamcatcher]

Lets see where these Retirement stock go ....posted on 4/6

Updated -----------4/6----------..6/7--------------5/8

Arvida ..............$1.37..........$1.48 ............$1.60
Summerset.......$6.34..........$6.73.............$ 7.80
Ryman..............$13.35........$13.04 ..........$12.77
Oceania............$0.94..........$0.95 ............$1.03
Metlifecare........$4.28..........$5.76 ............$5.92

[trader_jackson]

takeover going to be cancelled again?
Wouldn't be surprising, $6 was a great get out of jail card that's for sure... and any hope of it going higher will almost certainly be gone.

[dabsman]

takeover going to be cancelled again?
Wouldn't be surprising, $6 was a great get out of jail card that's for sure... and any hope of it going higher will almost certainly be gone.

I'll get on this rollercoaster again if that happens. Third time is a charm they say

[macduffy]

I'll get on this rollercoaster again if that happens. Third time is a charm they say

I might, too. On the other hand, do I want to invest in a company whose directors have shown their disinterest in the business?

[Rossimarnz]

Decided to exit. The risk for me now outweighs the extra 9 cents plus brokerage.

[JSwan]

Seems to be a lot more downside risk now of APVG pulling the plug with a lame excuse like "resurgence of cases in NZ"

[Beagle]

takeover going to be cancelled again?
Wouldn't be surprising, $6 was a great get out of jail card that's for sure... and any hope of it going higher will almost certainly be gone.

From memory there's 70 plus pages in the new agreement and I'd be really surprised if there wasn't some loophole either real or perceived that APVG couldn't use as an escape clause.
MET have already proved they're disinclined to engage in a multi year multi jurisdictional legal campaign and the agreement includes a specific clause where they agree the maximum damages are limited to $12.5m. I think if there's protracted widespread community transmission there's a good chance the deal will fall over. Maybe there would then be a fresh deal at $5 ?, (I am not kidding). Then we all have to work out if we want to be invested again in this company with the caliber of "leadership" and "governance" that's been on display in recent months.

I think if this deal falls the shares would need to be south of $4 to pique my interest again.

[Snoopy]

From memory there's 70 plus pages in the new agreement and I'd be really surprised if there wasn't some loophole either real or perceived that APVG couldn't use as an escape clause.
MET have already proved they're disinclined to engage in a multi year multi jurisdictional legal campaign and the agreement includes a specific clause where they agree the maximum damages are limited to $12.5m. I think if there's protracted widespread community transmission there's a good chance the deal will fall over. Then we all have to work out if we want to be invested again in this company with the caliber of "leadership" and "governance" that's been on display in recent months.

Reminds me of one of my favourite Warren Buffett quotes:

“I try to invest in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.” ― Warren Buffett

SNOOPY

[nztx]

Still no sniff of any dividend or compo for all the past forgone divies the long suffering in MET have sacrificed ?

[nztx]

From memory there's 70 plus pages in the new agreement and I'd be really surprised if there wasn't some loophole either real or perceived that APVG couldn't use as an escape clause.
MET have already proved they're disinclined to engage in a multi year multi jurisdictional legal campaign and the agreement includes a specific clause where they agree the maximum damages are limited to $12.5m. I think if there's protracted widespread community transmission there's a good chance the deal will fall over. Maybe there would then be a fresh deal at $5 ?, (I am not kidding). Then we all have to work out if we want to be invested again in this company with the caliber of "leadership" and "governance" that's been on display in recent months.

I think if this deal falls the shares would need to be south of $4 to pique my interest again.

Be ready to start sniffing around at those 4 buckses levels again here too ..

What sort of Lock Down score will force the Swedes to scurry off again into the distance with their tails between their legs ? ;)

[peat]

11854

picture says a thousand words.

[jimdog31]

11854

picture says a thousand words.

Which platform is that?

[Beagle]

11854

picture says a thousand words.

Cunning move. No chance whatsoever of a loss greater than 10 cents in my opinion. Chances of a ~ $2 profit are not as remote in my opinion as the market is pricing in.
Market, yet again is saying this is a done deal. Makes me wonder how many of those highly paid chief investment officers at the institutions buying this stock have actually read the new scheme of arrangement agreement and how many of them understand it ? I won't bother to ask how many have taken independent legal advice as to whether its a watertight agreement because the answer to that is self evident. Good luck mate. I'll probably climb back on board for another ride if it goes down to $4 again. Milking this yet again would be such a lot of fun :t_up:

[limmy]

As more and more Covid-19 cases emerge in Auckland, your chance of a 3rd time milking increases, Mr. Beagle.

[Beagle]

Time will tell. National house prices out today were very strong, (see SUM thread wherein Winner posted a link).

[Germaine]

You guys who sold out should have kept a few shares so you could lodge an objection in principle to this terrible deal. Or buy a few shares back and vote 'no' at the meeting (or by post). Only by being principled can retail shareholders ever end up improving the system for everyone. Please re-consider...

[winner69]

Jeez beagle ....METs Net assets per share last year was $7.46 (not $6.96) after restating of deferred tax

Now only $7.18 because they lost heaps in F20

Underlying earnings they reported a lot of crock I reckon....almost the same as last year as they didn’t really make $90.4m last year .......and is conveniently in guidance range eh

[JeremyALD]

This is honestly a shocking deal, especially with share markets at record highs.

Long time shareholders have unfortunately been stuffed by poor management, and a significant change in share register with short term interests. It's clear directors have just taken the easy way out.

[Beagle]

This is honestly a shocking deal, especially with share markets at record highs.

Long time shareholders have unfortunately been stuffed by poor management, and a significant change in share register with short term interests. It's clear directors have just taken the easy way out.

Agree but I would go further. Its an absolutely appalling deal and quite possibly actionable against the directors for not working in shareholders best interests. Underlying profit is unaffected by Covid and I am seeing multiple reports of very strong sales activity in Auckland with many ex pat Kiwi's desperate to come home. REINZ real estate medium national average up 15% year on year. If anyone can explain to me how the majority of directors are acting in the best interest of shareholders I'd love to hear their explanation. I actually think the directors and management are totally inept. Development margin is in the toilet. EQT are getting the bargain of the decade. Install directors and management who actually know what they're doing and they'll make a fortune out of hapless Kiwi's. Hope the OIO block this pillage of N.Z. assets at rock bottom bargain basement prices. Ultimately its up to shareholders to vote on the proposed deal. Nobody has a gun to their head making them agree. If they idiotic enough to roll over and play dead then I am sorry but they fully deserve to be ripped off.

[bottomfeeder]

NTA of 7.18 (audited results) yet directors recommend that shareholders accept $6.00. Who ripped who off here. We should be taking a class action against the company directors and the dumb ass valuers who valued the company in their low range.

[JeremyALD]

I'm out anyway, can't be bothered anymore, and better investments elsewhere.

I hope it gets declined at the shareholders meeting, but I think their share register is stuffed now as well so not holding out much hope.

It's quite mind boggling that anyone, let alone directors would sell a company in one of the most attractive growth sectors in New Zealand at a PE of 13, even withholding paying shareholders a dividend!!

[Mel]

I'm out anyway, can't be bothered anymore, and better investments elsewhere.

I hope it gets declined at the shareholders meeting, but I think their share register is stuffed now as well so not holding out much hope.

It's quite mind boggling that anyone, let alone directors would sell a company in one of the most attractive growth sectors in New Zealand at a PE of 13, even withholding paying shareholders a dividend!!
Completely agree with your sentiment and I took the same course of action (sold my holding).....directors showed zero negotiating nous and the Swedes will be bagging a bargain (unfortunate from a NZ perspective)!

[Germaine]

Why sell all your shares when you can keep a few and vote 'no' out of principle? It's a cop-out to sell, why not try and send a message so it helps next time?

[Germaine]

Again, why sell? Why not fight for what's right?

[Beagle]

Again, why sell? Why not fight for what's right?

The really ugly truth is I don't want to stay being a shareholder at $5.93 with the gross incompetence shown by the board and senior management.

[dabsman]

Why sell all your shares when you can keep a few and vote 'no' out of principle? It's a cop-out to sell, why not try and send a message so it helps next time?

I sold a couple of months ago because the upside potential was close to zero but the downside risk was real. I wasnt happy at $7 to be fair so $6 was infuriating. I also had zero faith in the board to fight for small holders as most of the big boys had capitulated already. I would love to see legal proceedings against these directors and would support that - if I was still a shareholder of course.

I take the mantra with my investing similar to riding my motorbikes - no point being righteous from a wheelchair

[Cyclical]

I take the mantra with my investing similar to riding my motorbikes - no point being righteous from a wheelchair

Sound advice on both counts ;)

[winner69]

When they were ‘negotiating’ the NTA was $7.46

[peat]

When they were ‘negotiating’ the NTA was $7.46

scary fact
but folk havent trusted NTA for a long time.

Discl short

[dibble]

scary fact
but folk havent trusted NTA for a long time.


Yes, and with good reason. Unless you know the underlying assumptions there is plenty of scope for material subjectivity. How independent are the valuers, what variables are used (e.g. if cost of capital is an input), how up to date are all the inputs etc. All that can dug up (perhaps with pain, and you then need to make your own judgement on what you find) but dangerous to use a figure on a website as an incontrovertible fact.

[Germaine]

The really ugly truth is I don't want to stay being a shareholder at $5.93 with the gross incompetence shown by the board and senior management.

No offence, from your posts above you sound like you have a few clues, but that is a lame short termist approach.

[Jonboyz]

Again, why sell? Why not fight for what's right?

Because the Superannuation Fund has decided to support the sale and li'l bit shareholders ain't gonna make much difference to that vote.

[peat]

No offence, from your posts above you sound like you have a few clues, but that is a lame short termist approach.

Germaine, Beagle certainly has a few clues , but will occasionally change his mind , if that is what you mean by short term.

[Beagle]

No offence, from your posts above you sound like you have a few clues, but that is a lame short termist approach.

Poor management and governance is not something that will be changed unless the scheme of implementation happens.
MET recorded a development margin of just 16% for the year. OCA had a development margin of more than double that in the same real estate market.
For me to hold at $5.93 I'd have to be holding based on 13.6 times underlying profit when I have very little respect for management's abilities or the board. There is no reason for me to do this when OCA is trading on about 10.5 times my estimate of FY21 underlying profit and I have full confidence in the board and management.

Maybe you are the one that needs to do some deep introspective thinking ?
Here's some questions to start you off :-
1. Why is it that all the directors apart from the chairman are recommending this deal at $6 given NTA is north of $7 ?
2. Do the directors think the current development model of the company is fundamentally flawed or what other aspect of the current business model is performing so poorly that they think its worth well below NTA ?
3. Is the declining occupancy now down to 96% part of the reason ?
4. What do the directors know about the company that they think its only worth $6 that you don't know ?
5. Before we even heard of Covid and before this proposed scheme of implementation was ever known this was trading at around $4.25 in late 2019 with an asset backing of $7. What does that suggest to you the market thinks of the abilities of management and the directors ?
6. Given 5 above, what might the share price fall too if the scheme implementation agreement is voted down ?
7. Given 5 and 6 above are shareholders on a hiding to nothing voting this down ?

Shooting myself in the foot just so I can make a moral or ethical statement about what's right or wrong does nothing to help me achieve my objective of a long and very comfortable retirement. There's shares on the NZX with much better upside than this from $5.93.

P.S. I corrected part of this post with the correct development margin, apologies for the earlier error. Maybe this post was a little harsh on management as they did produce a resilient result in challenging covid conditions. Myabe I can dig deep and find some fight in me, see my latest post.

[Germaine]

Poor management and governance is not something that will be changed unless the scheme of implementation happens.
MET recorded a development margin of just 11% for the year. OCA had a development margin of three times that in the same real estate market.
For me to hold at $5.93 I'd have to be holding based on 13.6 times underlying profit when I have very little respect for management's abilities or the board. There is no reason for me to do this when OCA is trading on about 10.5 times my estimate of FY21 underlying profit and I have full confidence in the board and management.

Maybe you are the one that needs to do some deep introspective thinking ?
Here's some questions to start you off :-
1. Why is it that all the directors apart from the chairman are recommending this deal at $6 given NTA is north of $7 ?
2. Do the directors think the current development model of the company is fundamentally flawed or what other aspect of the current business model is performing so poorly that they think its worth well below NTA ?
3. Is the declining occupancy now down to 96% part of the reason ?
4. What do the directors know about the company that they think its only worth $6 that you don't know ?
5. Before we even heard of Covid and before this proposed scheme of implementation was ever known this was trading at around $4.25 in late 2019 with an asset backing of $7. What does that suggest to you the market thinks of the abilities of management and the directors ?
6. Given 5 above, what might the share price fall too if the scheme implementation agreement is voted down ?
7. Given 5 and 6 above are shareholders on a hiding to nothing voting this down ?

Shooting myself in the foot just so I can make a moral or ethical statement about what's right or wrong does nothing to help me achieve my objective of a long and very comfortable retirement. There's shares on the NZX with much better upside than this from $5.93.

There are two separate issues here: management ability, and the terrible deal at $6 struck by the Board. I view holding a few shares (say 100) and violently objecting to the Scheme is a very worthwhile message to send to other Boards not to sell their shareholders short. It costs you nothing because the Scheme will probably go through anyway, and even if it doesn't you won't lose much. Its a personal philosophy I guess, but I am not one to cut and run, when i can instead stand and fight against the inequity of it all. I don't see that by voting against the Scheme, you are in any way vindicating management's performance.

Not only that, but the Scheme meeting will be fun. So buy 100 shares for the princely sum of $593, and bring your popcorn. It will be the best shareholder meeting in 2020 I reckon.

[Germaine]

Germaine, Beagle certainly has a few clues , but will occasionally change his mind , if that is what you mean by short term.

No by short term I mean cutting and running, rather than sticking around and objecting to something that stinks.

[Germaine]

Because the Superannuation Fund has decided to support the sale and li'l bit shareholders ain't gonna make much difference to that vote.

Making a fuss, and making directors uncomfortable, is always worthwhile. Otherwise what changes? Will you vote in the General Election? If yes, why bother, given your vote "ain't gonna make much difference to that vote..."

See my point? It's the principle that matters, and in my view it matters a huge amount.

[Germaine]

Germaine, Beagle certainly has a few clues , but will occasionally change his mind , if that is what you mean by short term.

I hope so, it would be good to have someone with Beagle's quality of thinking on the objectors side...

[JeremyALD]

Making a fuss, and making directors uncomfortable, is always worthwhile. Otherwise what changes? Will you vote in the General Election? If yes, why bother, given your vote "ain't gonna make much difference to that vote..."

See my point? It's the principle that matters, and in my view it matters a huge amount.

So what exactly are you planning to do / say at the meeting that will impact the future and how these deals are struct?

It certainly won't be your vote, a few percent of retail shareholders voting against the scheme is not going to make much difference.

I think the other point is Beagle and I bought when the initial deal was declined and we saw value in the share price point for a long term hold (until an even worse deal was struck). Had I been a shareholder for years I may have seen it worth putting up a fight.

[Beagle]

................

[BlackPeter]

For what it is worth .. just updated Metlifecare (probably for the last time ever) in my spreadsheet.

Average long term PE (at $5.93 SP) was 16.7, which (in combination with a negative earnings CAGR of -6) does not look that flash.

Forward PE (based on analysts consensus guesses) is 24.7 - hmm

Yes, NTA (as discussed to death) looks good - $7.18, but somehow the board does not seem to be very good at utilizing the equity shareholders trusted them to look after.

BTW - DCF value (courtesy to shareclarity) used to be for some time $4.49 but just (in the last two weeks or so) moved magically to $6,00 - interesting coincidence, isn't it?

Now - this might be a controversial statement and against the spirit of this thread, but based on above numbers and past company performance would I not pay $6 per share (unless speculating for a greater fool, but this is not investment). I think the shares are under the current conditions worth something like $4.50 to $5 ... i.e. the Swedes pay a roughly 20 to 25% bonus to fair value to get hold of this company. Fair enough?

No doubt they do see higher value in it, and I believe if they replace the current inept board with somebody who knows what they are doing, they well might realise this higher value. But isn't this what any good investor would do?

I think the current offer is fair ... and anybody who thinks MET is more worth should just make a better offer and buy it.

Just my 2 cents ...

Discl: not holding, but must admit that MET was good to me in the past (not once, not twice but three times :); Clear evidence that it is possible to make money with dogs run by at best mediocre directors if you get the timing right ...

[Beagle]

SUM's the situation up very well. If the deal is voted down I expect the shares to gradually retrace back to the range you've suggested of $4.50 - $5.00. Sometimes making a stand on principle is simply not in one's interests and is too expensive. I suspect most shareholders know they're caught are between a rock and a hard place and will vote to approve the scheme.

[teabag]

Well said BP, I think $6 is fair enough. You will have to switch out the board and management and spend a few years hard work to get the stock to what its NTA is supposedly worth - so, a 19% gain over 2-3 years. I wish the Swedes luck.

[Germaine]

SUM's the situation up very well. If the deal is voted down I expect the shares to gradually retrace back to the range you've suggested of $4.50 - $5.00. Sometimes making a stand on principle is simply not in one's interests and is too expensive. I suspect most shareholders know they're caught are between a rock and a hard place and will vote to approve the scheme.

That's where you and I differ then. I am a person of principle, you one of expedience. Shame.

[BlackPeter]

That's where you and I differ then. I am a person of principle, you one of expedience. Shame.

I'd recommend to read "Michael Kohlhaas"written by the German novellist Heinrich von Kleist. Great story which might help to understand why being righteous is not always the best approach :); At the end it is always about the outcome, not about being right ;) , and lets face it: no crime (I am aware of) committed by the board, they are just your average, mediocre, underperforming, off the run board elected by their shareholders. Plenty of them around. Voting with the feet is often less stressful and more effective.

[Beagle]

That's where you and I differ then. I am a person of principle, you one of expedience. Shame.

I'm getting dizzy with this...going round and round and round. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUV1LJKYAUc

Maybe if I did buy the minimum shareholding back and went along and really barked up an absolute storm there's a very slim chance the deal will be voted down, the shares will fall back to under $5 and greedy unprincipled capitalist pigs like myself can get yet another chance to ride this roller-coaster before EQT have to come back with a better offer. Hmmm...even if EQT win I still get the chance to tell the directors what a bunch of wimps they are, or words to that effect.

I'm liking it more and more the more I think about it. Don't count the old greedy unprincipled dog out of the fight just yet...I get the sense there's a very small chance of yet another big feed.

[Bjauck]

..
Discl: not holding, but must admit that MET was good to me in the past (not once, not twice but three times :); Clear evidence that it is possible to make money with dogs run by at best mediocre directors if you get the timing right ... That is a good point. Infratil timed their 3 plus year investment in Infratil in MET well too. They managed to get to close to their target rate of return for investments.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11833814

[Germaine]

I'm getting dizzy with this...going round and round and round. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUV1LJKYAUc

Maybe if I did buy the minimum shareholding back and went along and really barked up an absolute storm there's a very slim chance the deal will be voted down, the shares will fall back to under $5 and greedy unprincipled capitalist pigs like myself can get yet another chance to ride this roller-coaster before EQT have to come back with a better offer. Hmmm...even if EQT win I still get the chance to tell the directors what a bunch of wimps they are, or words to that effect.

I'm liking it more and more the more I think about it. Don't count the old greedy unprincipled dog out of the fight just yet...I get the sense there's a very small chance of yet another big feed.

That’s the spirit!

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/359141/329967.pdf

Scheme booklet is out. I am very time poor until at least 15 Sept but will have a good look through before the meeting and share my thoughts.
On a really quick and VERY light quick skim through of the valuation I noted:-

Korda Mentha (I use their former handle as that's how they're best known) assess:-

1. Mid point of updated valuation = $6.35. My comment. That seems rather convenient seeing as that's the same as before yet other retirement village operators share prices have been going gangbusters as has the real estate market in recent months.

2. Forecast FY21 underlying profit in a booming real estate market is set at just $91m. Development margins are projected to decline despite robust housing dynamics.
My comment WTF ? (See point 3)

3. They assess the net present value of head office overhead at - $1.75. My comment, all you have to do to make the shares worth $7.75 is replace the development and senior management team with highly skilled people who know what they're doing and EQT as highly experienced operators will do exactly that_ but "as is"...oh dear...

Management simply aren't doing enough to justify their fat cat salaries and head office overhead of circa $21m (from memory on my quick glance at the report).
Development margins are already the lowest of its peers and are projected to contract even further in FY21 despite the real estate market showing excellent signs of positivity...go figure that one...that is absolutely bizarre and I wonder how that is possibly explainable ?

I think with the "caliber" of management and how well they're paid and the "skills" shown in the development endeavors, if you can call it skills, an experienced new owner could add an awful lot of value to their operation with a fresh infusion of talent and operational discipline.

As the operation currently exists with the forecast decline in underlying profit, development margin and the risk of a further outbreak of Covid I think $6 is not completely unreasonable.

I plan, (time permitting), to have a thorough look through this well before the meeting date of 2 October.

[peat]

seem like a fair few hurdles to me.
No MAC, but instead Prescribed Occurrences , which I cant find an actual definition for other than in the Glossary


discl. short.

[peat]

BusinessDesk have as their logo "Follow the Money" and this new (paywalled) article does just that

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/listed-companies/metlifecare-execs-in-for-a-windfall-but-forfeit-incentives

Metlifecare chief executive Glen Sowry and chief financial officer Richard Thomson are in line for a nice not-so-little windfall if shareholders approve Swedish suitor EQT's $6 per share offer...

[Beagle]

BusinessDesk have as their logo "Follow the Money" and this new (paywalled) article does just that

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/listed-companies/metlifecare-execs-in-for-a-windfall-but-forfeit-incentives

Metlifecare chief executive Glen Sowry and chief financial officer Richard Thomson are in line for a nice not-so-little windfall if shareholders approve Swedish suitor EQT's $6 per share offer...

Surely more than 30 pieces of silver each ?
Come on spill the beans.
Are the directors also getting paid to sell shareholders down the river ?

[winner69]

seem like a fair few hurdles to me.
No MAC, but instead Prescribed Occurrences , which I cant find an actual definition for other than in the Glossary


discl. short.

Prescribed Ocurrences outlined in the SIA that came out on July

Usually to cover off any changes in capital, insolvency etc

The world truly rooted if these stopped the deal going ahead ...not what a shorter wanted to hear eh

[Baa_Baa]

Surely more than 30 pieces of silver each ?
Come on spill the beans.
Are the directors also getting paid to sell shareholders down the river ?

The scheme booklet reveals that after the vote, Sowry will be issued 93,035 shares and Thomson 63,536, respectively worth $558,210 and $381,216 at the offer price. The share issues represent the accelerated vesting of performance rights ...

Nice payout, surely wouldn't cloud their decision would it?
;)

[Beagle]

The scheme booklet reveals that after the vote, Sowry will be issued 93,035 shares and Thomson 63,536, respectively worth $558,210 and $381,216 at the offer price. The share issues represent the accelerated vesting of performance rights ...

Nice payout, surely wouldn't cloud their decision would it?
;)

Silver is $42 an ounce so 13,290 pieces of silver is quite a tidy sum. (Go back in history and you'll find people who have betrayed others on matters of far more significance for a lot less). The irony of these Muppets being so well compensated when they're the architects of the abysmal performance being forecasted for FY21 isn't lost on me.

Their occupancy is now down to 96%. Perhaps there's an element of truth that some of their oldest villages are looking very tired and dated and no longer meeting expectations of what residents are now looking for or as Winner more succinctly put it, its a dog !

[peat]

Prescribed Ocurrences outlined in the SIA that came out on July

Usually to cover off any changes in capital, insolvency etc

The world truly rooted if these stopped the deal going ahead ...not what a shorter wanted to hear eh

thanks for that
I am not concerned by deal sentiment, just purely playing risk/reward with the risk as totally minimal.

[Beagle]

Pretty good chance the special meeting on 2 October 2020 will be a virtual one only. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/359141
Very unlikely Auckland will be allowing meetings of more than 100 people by then I would think. (That's level 1.)
Real shame as my experience with virtual meetings isn't good at all. I have asked really awkward questions online at two previous virtual meetings and my experience is the directors don't answer the hard questions. They just choose the easy questions and people searching for hard answers are ignored.
(Some companies say they follow up with shareholders later, (questions that weren't answered during the meeting) but that's complete B.S. in my experience.

I won't touch the shares with a view to shareholder activism unless there's going to be a real meeting where the directors can't hide from the hard questions.

[peat]

curr price 5.94/5 with millions bid
imagine spending that much money with the goal of making 5-6c. = .8 of 1%

[stoploss]

curr price 5.94/5 with millions bid
imagine spending that much money with the goal of making 5-6c. = .8 of 1%
Can the ultimate buyer be the bid currently ?

[dreamcatcher]

Lets see where these Retirement stock go ....posted on 4/6

Updated -----------4/6----------..6/7--------------5/8...............8/9

Arvida ..............$1.37..........$1.48 ............$1.60...............$1.65
Summerset.......$6.34..........$6.73.............$ 7.80...............$8.56
Ryman..............$13.35........$13.04 ..........$12.77.............$13.79
Oceania............$0.94..........$0.95 ............$1.03................$1.04
Metlifecare........$4.28..........$5.76 ............$5.92................$5.94

[peat]

Can the ultimate buyer be the bid currently ?

I would've thought if that was the case then there would have been notices of movement in their position... but maybe they dont own 5% yet. I am not sure.

Dreamcatcher has destroyed the Couta theory where SUM = RYM x 0.5

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/359645

Probably game over.

[couta1]

I would've thought if that was the case then there would have been notices of movement in their position... but maybe they dont own 5% yet. I am not sure.

Dreamcatcher has destroyed the Couta theory where SUM = RYM x 0.5 Don't count on it, a few months doesn't cut it, sometimes reversion back to the mean takes time and I reckon SUM has run way ahead of itself.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12364618

[BlackPeter]

NZSA says that shareholders need to decide based on their own financial situation, however - they will vote any undirected proxies against the takeover.

[Beagle]

NZSA says that shareholders need to decide based on their own financial situation, however - they will vote any undirected proxies against the takeover.

They have raised many points I have previously raised. https://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/pdf/proxies/_MET_SSM_Oct_PVI_F.pdf

There is something rather nefarious about all this. Why are the insiders, (most directors and the super fund) who have BY FAR the most detailed knowledge of this company so keen to sell out ?
What do they know that ordinary shareholders don't ?
How did the most recent so called independent valuation come up with exactly the same figure as the last one several months ago during the depths of the Covid lockdown and yet real estate has been booming ever since and other companies in this sector have on average seen their share prices go up 14% ?

In that context I find it unfathomable that the most recent so called independent valuation is being truly independent...something very wrong is going on here.

I probably better not go into print with what I really think of the directors performance in this matter...other than to say with that lot governing the company maybe people should take the $6 and run :eek2:

If I didn't know better, (and I am not sure I do), I would say that despite such a conspiracy theory being far fetched on the face of it, it actually looks remarkably plausible to argue that the directors, the super fund, short term arbitrage funds and the independent valuers are all conspiring against small shareholders best interests. Frankly this smells worse than two week old fish in the trash bin that someone forgot to throw out.

[Bjauck]

NZSA says that shareholders need to decide based on their own financial situation, however - they will vote any undirected proxies against the takeover.
Even the original offer price seems too cheap considering the trajectory of the virus in NZ, how well NZ retirement villages have handled the challenge so far, and the strength of NZ property prices. Have NZ shareholders been sold down the river again?

[Beagle]

APVG has engaged Georgeson Shareholder Communications Australia Pty Ltd (Georgeson) “… to assist solicit
proxy votes in favour of the Scheme of Arrangement.”
Georgeson has confirmed to NZSA that it will undertake a telephone campaign in pursuit of that objective,
but it will not provide the telephone script to NZSA. It did agree however make a call to NZSA during the
campaign.
We suggest you do your own research rather than rely on advice from the group attempting the takeover.
The fact that the bidder is actively soliciting support from shareholders with even relatively small numbers
of shares indicates that its confidence is not absolute. From Shareholders association concerns letter.

How is it fair and reasonable that MET provides the personal telephone numbers of shareholders to an Australian company, that if my memory serves me correctly is known to be well capable of waging a vigorous campaign of influence in favor of the takeover ? All shareholders get to the contrary is a so called independent valuation that was probably also commissioned by APVG.
Not only that but it would appear that this crucial meeting is going to be online only so that directors and the so called independent valuers can dodge any hard questions they don't want to answer.

[Lion_graf]

We’re getting in touch to let you know that Metlifecare Limited (MET) has entered into a Scheme Implementation Arrangement with Asia Pacific Village Group Limited (APVG).

If this scheme goes ahead, APVG will:

Take over Metlifecare, and

Acquire 100% of the shares in Metlifecare for $6.00 per share

As part of this process, Metlifecare will be delisted (removed) from the New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZX) and all of the Metlifecare shares you own will be sold to APVG for $6.00 per share.

For the full details, check out Metlifecare’s announcement on the NZX website.

What do I need to do?

On Monday 28 September 2020, all eligible MET shareholders will get to vote on whether or not the scheme goes ahead. You’ll have the option to vote:

FOR—I support shares being sold to APVG for $6.00 per share

AGAINST—I do not support shares being sold to APVG

ABSTAIN— I do not want to participate (this is a neutral vote)

You need to hold shares in MET at 5 PM on Monday 28 September 2020 to be eligible to vote. If you decide not to participate, your vote will be recorded as ‘ABSTAIN’.

[teabag]

Got a phone call from an APVG rep in Australia yesterday asking if I had got the voting materials, and how I was leaning on the vote. I am a modest holder, they must be getting a bit worried about how the vote will go?

If the vote goes in favour, when is the payout likely to be?

[macduffy]

I had a call too. Yes, interesting, as I sold most of my holding several weeks ago and now only holding a few for interest's sake. Told whoever he was that I thought it a very poorly managed company. No reaction - as expected!

[dabsman]

Oh I hope I can ride this dog a third time...

[Cyclical]

People, some noob questions, apologies in advance...

How many shares does one have to hold to vote? And are the votes weighted in terms of the % of the company or something along those lines (more to the point, does a very minor shareholder really have any say)? Have I missed the cutoff to buy a few in order to express my disappointment of the board, the antics of the Swedes and the my feelings about another quality asset (cough) being ripped away from NZ inc?

[BlackPeter]

Easy - One share one vote.

MET has currently 213,304,722 shares outstanding (i.e. same number of votes).

Yes, this are 213 million shares plus some.

If you hold at least half of these plus one share you are the king :):

[Beagle]

It only takes 25.1% of people to vote NO and those trying to pillage MET assets will be sent on their way to consider whether they should pay more.
Because this meeting is virtual only I am not going to try any shareholder activism as its virtually impossible to bark effectively in online meetings.

[peat]

It only takes 25.1% of people to vote NO and those trying to pillage MET assets will be sent on their way to consider whether they should pay more.
Because this meeting is virtual only I am not going to try any shareholder activism as its virtually impossible to bark effectively in online meetings.

but will the market value those assets higher once the arrangement is rejected.
Of course it is easy to argue it should, look at the current share prices of the other retirement companies.
BUT to my mind more importantly , it hasn't in the past.....

[Panda-NZ-]

It only takes 25.1% of people to vote NO and those trying to pillage MET assets will be sent on their way to consider whether they should pay more.
Because this meeting is virtual only I am not going to try any shareholder activism as its virtually impossible to bark effectively in online meetings.

It does represent an increase in price for those who bought at the right time though.

IF the offer wasn't on the table 'met' would be trailing the other retirement stocks for years rather than having a return now.

[Beagle]

but will the market value those assets higher once the arrangement is rejected. No
Of course it is easy to argue it should, look at the current share prices of the other retirement companies.
BUT to my mind more importantly , it hasn't in the past.....

I agree that the board and the company have a lot of work to do to rebuild their credibility. Winner has called this the dog of the sector and I think that SUM's the situation up pretty well but I would add that there are some serious issues with mange, ticks and flea's that need addressing. The mangy board are amongst their biggest of problems and a serious does of flea powder is required in their development team.

[HKG2301]

This chat has been really useful.

Seems there's a small risk of the offer being voted down (in which case, watch the price drop to $4.50 for the foreseeable future) so I'm out.

Taking my profits ahead of the vote...

[peat]

hows the METing going?
I cant attend as I am a negative shareholder.

[dabsman]

Makes me ill just thinkig of all those revaluations they picked up at a big discount - even a discount before the property market started moving!

[JSwan]

Alot of people asked questions about why only $6/share and expressed their disappointment

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/360874/332201.pdf

I doubt any amount of barking would have changed that result. More than 90% of people couldn't see the wood for the trees...mind you with the caliber of the directors and senior management I am not surprised.

Wonder where that money will be reinvested ?..some of it is almost certain to make its way back into the other NZX listed retirement stocks I would think. Probably supercharge their rally.

[forest]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/360874/332201.pdf

I doubt any amount of barking would have changed that result. More than 90% of people couldn't see the wood for the trees...mind you with the caliber of the directors and senior management I am not surprised.

Wonder where that money will be reinvested ?..some of it is almost certain to make its way back into the other NZX listed retirement stocks I would think. Probably supercharge their rally.

Like you Beagle I am very disappointed in Kim Ellis and the board he chairs. I will take note of this bunch of directors and am very wary of investing in a business they are involved in. Selling a business hundreds of $millions below its equity value is a disgrace.
I can see a nomination coming up for the NZ shareholders association, and it won't be for best managed company.

[peat]

so the only thing stopping it now is if APVG back out? I've lost 7 cents on half a parcel so its trivial enough I am still hanging onto my short - somewhat desperately, but all in good spirits - this company has made me $ per share several times.

[Joshuatree]

Been a fab 6 month play, buying when everyone was selling, up re 83% ,for me one of the few i timed it right with as i did my big selldown before Covid was first detected here.

[Beagle]

Post Mortem of a company sold dirt cheap to foreign buyers. A sad day for the NZX.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12369838

[moimoi]

Like you Beagle I am very disappointed in Kim Ellis and the board he chairs. I will take note of this bunch of directors and am very wary of investing in a business they are involved in. Selling a business hundreds of $millions below its equity value is a disgrace.
I can see a nomination coming up for the NZ shareholders association, and it won't be for best managed company.

Did you read or take note of any of the published material in relation to this?

Kim Ellis clearly stated his objection to the situation.

Your disappointment could be sheeted home to where it belongs at the door of the NZ Superannuation Fund who clearly did not need to enter into a lock up agreement prior to the shareholder vote.

The NZ Superannuation Fund's nominated Director Carolyn Steele didn't even front for the meeting. Telling in itself.

[Beagle]

Did you read or take note of any of the published material in relation to this?

Kim Ellis clearly stated his objection to the situation.

Your disappointment could be sheeted home to where it belongs at the door of the NZ Superannuation Fund who clearly did not need to enter into a lock up agreement prior to the shareholder vote.

The NZ Superannuation Fund's nominated Director Carolyn Steele didn't even front for the meeting. Telling in itself.

That is truly disgraceful. Is that "wonderful lady" on any other NZX listed boards ? I really need to keep my eyes wide open to her "wonderful professional expertise"

[winner69]

That is truly disgraceful. Is that "wonderful lady" on any other NZX listed boards ? I really need to keep my eyes wide open to her "wonderful professional expertise"

So u won’t be investing in Green Cross. (BP’s favourite)

[forest]

Did you read or take note of any of the published material in relation to this?

Kim Ellis clearly stated his objection to the situation.

Your disappointment could be sheeted home to where it belongs at the door of the NZ Superannuation Fund who clearly did not need to enter into a lock up agreement prior to the shareholder vote.

The NZ Superannuation Fund's nominated Director Carolyn Steele didn't even front for the meeting. Telling in itself.

Yes Moimoi I realise that Kim Ellis was against the second offer of $6,00.
Where I was very disappointed in him and the board was in the initial recommendation of the weak $7.00 offer.
This first offer had a very long settlement period AND options for the purchaser to get out. At the same time the initial offer restricted MET paying dividends or adjusting the offer price for profits made over this extended settlement period.
If directors allow long settlement periods then purchase prices should be adjusted for profits made over this extended time. Also if there is a clause of changing the contract if property values are reducing it seem logical to me to have a clause in favour of the seller in case property values increase.
Anyway it seem to me this board did not have the energy to run this company or put in the effort to get a fair price.
And that is more than likely the reason that so many shareholders accepted this discounted offer.

[Beagle]

Without any doubt THE most pathetic effort at getting a fair price for shareholders in a takeover situation I can ever recall in nearly 40 years of investing.

[Beagle]

So u won’t be investing in Green Cross. (BP’s favourite)

I've never even looked at it mate and won't be now that's for sure !

[BlackPeter]

So u won’t be investing in Green Cross. (BP’s favourite)

Not sure favorite is the right expression here, but yes, I do hold. Hope to do a MET with them as well :):

Agree though that there appears to be too much cross fertilization (or should better say contamination) between these two boards (MET and GXH). Both companies in industries with lots of tailwind ... and both not quite living up to their potential. Maybe the quality of a board actually does matter?

FWIW - I did vote in the last GXH AGM against the (as well) MET directors ... though admittedly, it didn't make a huge dent in the election results ;p;

[peat]

A shareholder has lodged an objection with the High Court to Sweden-based EQT's $1.28 billion scheme of arrangement to take over Metlifecare (https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/metlifecare-shareholders-approve-sale-to-unscrupulous-buyer). (paywall)

[dabsman]

Come on! I wanna ride this donkey again :)

[Snoopy]

Come on! I wanna ride this donkey again :)

IIRC the NZ takeover rules are if you disagree with the independent valuation and file an objection, the company is obliged to get another valuation (which may be higher or lower than the valuation already commissioned) and you will get your payout based on that. Better get your own objection in Dabsman and join this disgruntled shareholder. You might just get your 'ride again' wish?

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

Come on! I wanna ride this donkey again :)

Giddy up..it was so much fun the first two times :D

[dreamcatcher]

Lets see where these Retirement stock go ....posted on 4/6

Updated -----------4/6----------..6/7--------------5/8.................8/9..................7/10

Arvida ..............$1.37..........$1.48 ............$1.60............$1.65................ $1.77
Summerset.......$6.34..........$6.73.............$ 7.80............$8.56...............$9.15
Ryman..............$13.35........$13.04 ..........$12.77..........$13.79.............$14.8 5
Oceania............$0.94..........$0.95 ............$1.03..............$1.04.............. $1.20
Metlifecare........$4.28..........$5.76 ............$5.92.............$5.94..............$ 5.98

[nevchev]

Wow
This looks like it could be held up a while in court proceedings

[bull....]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123019144/a-metlifecare-shareholder-lodges-notice-of-opposition-in-the-high-court-against-the-13b-takeover-by-a-foreign-investor

high court challenge

[peat]

I see buyers bids have shied away .... I will laugh my face off if I make money out of this trade.

[Jamie]

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/property/metlifecare-objector-claims-takeovers-code-breaches-lack-of-info-1?utm_source=Linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ruth-metlifecare-objection

[peat]

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/property/metlifecare-objector-claims-takeovers-code-breaches-lack-of-info-1?utm_source=Linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ruth-metlifecare-objection

on reading the article they sound pretty legitimate concerns to me

[Beagle]

on reading the article they sound pretty legitimate concerns to me

Wow...he owns a whole 1000 shares. That's "impressive" and bound to get the High Court justice's attention. More than 90% of shareholders voted for it, which as you know is above the threshold of the takeovers code for compulsory acquisition.
Its time to euthanize this poorly managed and directed dog of a company and put shareholders out of their misery.

[oldtech]

Wow...he owns a whole 1000 shares. That's "impressive" and bound to get the High Court justice's attention.

Gee, even I had more than that when I was holding, and I assure you I'm certainly no big-scale investor!

[Bjauck]

Wow...he owns a whole 1000 shares. That's "impressive" and bound to get the High Court justice's attention. More than 90% of shareholders voted for it, which as you know is above the threshold of the takeovers code for compulsory acquisition.
Its time to euthanize this poorly managed and directed dog of a company and put shareholders out of their misery. If there have been breaches, does a shareholder have a right to redress irrespective of how many shares they own?

1000 MET shares may be cappuccino money for some but a material amount for others.

[Beagle]

If there have been breaches, does a shareholder have a right to redress irrespective of how many shares they own?

1000 MET shares may be cappuccino money for some but a material amount for others.

Without pretending to be a commercial lawyer from best recollection with the basic commercial law training that goes with a commerce degree, if I recall correctly you will find that courts generally look at the materiality of any alleged breech in terms of the quantum of money as it affects the objecting party.

I won't get into what's coffee money for some and not for others other than to say if this was a major institution with millions of shares the court might take a different approach.

Sure there are important issues to consider but the court is bound to also consider that a $1.27 Billion deal in which more than 90% of shareholders voted for it is being asked to be derailed by a shareholder owning just 1000 shares. The court will also be considering that there has already been two independent valuations by recognised experts in their field and that the scheme implementation agreement proposed settlement price is within the valuation ranges of both of those experts.

The High court judges are entitled to rely on the expertise of those experts and will probably dismiss the objection in my opinion and ratify the finalization of the scheme implementation agreement.

[winner69]

Probably his way of giving the fund managers the fingers for being so useless

But they would never listen ....ego driven and up themselves ....happy as collecting exorbitant management fees no matter what

And we think highly of most of them ...sad industry really

[Bjauck]

…
The High court judges are entitled to rely on the expertise of those experts and will probably dismiss the objection in my opinion and ratify the finalization of the scheme implementation agreement.
If they decide breaches had occurred, maybe the court will take into account whether a reasonable shareholder would have accepted the deal had they been aware that breaches had occurred.

[Beagle]

If they decide breaches had occurred, maybe the court will take into account whether a reasonable shareholder would have accepted the deal had they been aware that breaches had occurred.
Well yes that's right they could but...
What you're suggesting is that a small shareholder who owns 1,000 shares knows more about the correct procedures than the two independent experts who have prepared their reports on the SIA.
You're also suggesting that the High Court judges are in a position (yes they're extremely intelligent about the law), to decide that the two independent valuers were fundamentally erroneous in their valuation methodology. (Keep in mind judges are not independent expert valuers)

Ask yourself how plausible the above might be...and then keep in mind the SIA had overwhelming support from shareholders and has OIO approval.

David and Goliath battle if ever there was one. The objector is going to need a miracle like David got in the Bible.

[peat]

Wow...he owns a whole 1000 shares. That's "impressive" and bound to get the High Court justice's attention. More than 90% of shareholders voted for it, which as you know is above the threshold of the takeovers code for compulsory acquisition.
Its time to euthanize this poorly managed and directed dog of a company and put shareholders out of their misery.

he had owned 50k - sold out like we all did - but whatever ,the law shouldn't look at materiality only because what he's trying to say and you know it is true is that 90% of the shareholders were duped because a distorted view of the facts was presented without those distortions being declared. not that many people are clever enough as a hungry beagle to see through these things. and even those who did, and we dont know how many of them there are, still sold because covid gloom.

Anyway I'm just talkin my book for the hell of it .... it keeps my whistle wet on this short

[Beagle]

I think the fact that he used to own 50K shares and has sold 49K under $6 effectively amounts to him shooting himself in the foot.
The court is likely to ask, if you thought they were worth more than $6 why did you sell the vast bulk of your shares at under $6 ?
Its one thing to make a principled stand and quite another to take an objectors approach just for the sake of it.
With his approach, its quite clear he's trying to delay the SIA agreement and manipulate the share price down again to milk this tired old female dog one more time.
I think the court will see right through his transparent attempt at profiteering and his objection will be dismissed out of hand.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/361404

He just bought the shares in Sept 2020 to be obstructive.

What a "b"anker.

[Leftfield]

PEB replacing MET in the NZX50 according to this (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZXO/361406/332835.pdf).

Good day for PEB holders. :t_up:

[peat]

legal delays announced today - as always the legal wheels turn slowly

it is never good to have commercial matters held over waiting for legal outcomes.

disclaimer - short

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/361703 Effectively all done and dusted now.
c'est la vie - MET will be remembered as a company that could have, should have but didn't have.
In the end 91% of shareholders thought all MET was worth was $6 and as mentioned before with the current management and board performing at a well below average level it was very hard to make a compelling case for more. Really the N.Z. Superannuation fund hog tied the directors from trying to do better but if between them they had a pair, this should have gone another round to at the very least get to the mid point of the independent valuation, ($6.35).

Substantial value will accrue to APVG due to the extremely weak way the Board handled this fiasco. To the victor goes the spoils...

[teabag]

If the court sign off is tomorrow, when can we expect our holdings to be paid out?

[Beagle]

If the court sign off is tomorrow, when can we expect our holdings to be paid out?

Apparently 3/11/20 https://www.nzx.com/announcements/361485

[nztx]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/361771

"SCHEME RECEIVES FINAL COURT APPROVAL

Metlifecare Limited (NZX: MET, ASX: MEQ) confirms the timetable for the Scheme of Arrangement (Scheme) with Asia Pacific Village Group Limited (APVG) following today’s decision of the High Court to issue final orders in respect of the Scheme.

Subject to remaining customary completion conditions being satisfied or waived, the Scheme timetable is:

Trading in Metlifecare shares suspended on the NZX and ASX 23 October 2020, close of trading
Scheme Record Date 29 October 2020
Scheme Implementation Date 3 November 2020
De-listing of Metlifecare from the NZX and ASX 3 November 2020, close of trading

Holders of Metlifecare shares at 5.00 pm (NZ time) on the Record Date will be entitled to receive the Scheme consideration of NZ$6 per share in cash, which will be paid on the Implementation Date (expected to occur on 3 November 2020).

Metlifecare shareholders who wish to participate in the Scheme do not need to take any further action. Metlifecare shareholders who do not wish to participate in the Scheme must sell their shares before the close of trading on 23 October 2020.

This announcement is authorised for release to the market by the Company Secretary."

Almost all over Rover, bar shelling out the takeover bucks and then delisting

Possible 50% gain since early April 2020

Quite a nice ride along the way too

What others will benefit from the inflow of MET Takeover Ca$h ?

[dibble]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/361771

[I]"SCHEME RECEIVES FINAL COURT APPROVAL


What others will benefit from the inflow of MET Takeover Ca$h ?

Management consultants I reckon. Its certainly been a weird, profitable yet ultimately disappointing ride, watch them come in, "optimise" the processes (sack everyone) and plonk a high-rise in any garden larger than a baguette.

[Bjauck]

Management consultants I reckon. Its certainly been a weird, profitable yet ultimately disappointing ride, watch them come in, "optimise" the processes (sack everyone) and plonk a high-rise in any garden larger than a baguette.
Failure to properly plan and provide for population growth as a result of immigration policy results in rushed rezoning and rushed and often unwanted suburban intensification.

Absolute shame that yet another company delists and heads into foreign ownership at a bargain price perhaps.

[nztx]

Failure to properly plan and provide for population growth as a result of immigration policy results in rushed rezoning and rushed and often unwanted suburban intensification.

Absolute shame that yet another company delists and heads into foreign ownership at a bargain price perhaps.

Agree with both yourself & dibble

jumping in this one in early April 2020 - the sort of gain seen can't be ignored, even if there was possibly resounding failure
to extract true realistic value from the incoming buyer

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/362481

[Beagle]

Didn't take EQT long to appoint a whole new board. Taken out more quickly that I have had time to take the rubbish out this week.

[stoploss]

Time to move on .......

[nztx]

Didn't take EQT long to appoint a whole new board. Taken out more quickly that I have had time to take the rubbish out this week.


the same lot of squatters around the large table that sold 'Their" stakeholders down the river by a buck a shot .. ? ;)

[peat]

Didn't take EQT long to appoint a whole new board. Taken out more quickly that I have had time to take the rubbish out this week.

clearly not impressed by their business acumen hahah

[macduffy]

No point in mourning the loss - MET's gone and the Swedes naturally want to appoint their own board.

Move on.

[winner69]

MET reported HUGE profit this year - $304m

Revaluations of $336m -- wow who got a bargain eh

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/377602/352623.pdf

[Maverick]

MET reported HUGE profit this year - $304m

Revaluations of $336m -- wow who got a bargain eh

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/377602/352623.pdf
Would somebody with a bit legal knowledge and free time on their hands today , haha, mind explaining why MET are being so kind to bother sharing their financials with us anymore?

Thanks for sharing Winner.

[winner69]

Would somebody with a bit legal knowledge and free time on their hands today , haha, mind explaining why MET are being so kind to bother sharing their financials with us anymore?

Because they still hve bonds listed on NZDX .....MET010

[Maverick]

Because they still hve bonds listed on NZDX
Thanks W69 .....how come you so smart ?

[Balance]

Thanks W69 .....how come you so smart ?

Not only smart, but full off wisdom. :p

[winner69]

NTA now $8.64 ---- what did it sell for --- about $6 wasn't it

[dabsman]

Just makes me feel ill. Incompetent spineless board

[Rawz]

NTA now $8.64 ---- what did it sell for --- about $6 wasn't it

Outrageous. Thought people went to jail for stealing ;)

[Bjauck]

Because they still hve bonds listed on NZDX .....MET010 ...all that is left for NZ investors after those canny Swedes persuaded the NZ Superfund and a majority of directors to panic sell the ordinary shares for a reduced song.

Thanks for the information W69.

[Balance]

Outrageous. Thought people went to jail for stealing ;)

To be congratulated - they played a great game and WON.

[Beagle]

Incompetent spineless board

Agree 100% but its time to move on. NTA up 23% in the last year in line with the property market so there's really no new news here.

[dabsman]

Agree 100% but its time to move on. NTA up 23% in the last year in line with the property market so there's really no new news here.

Yes that's why I'm pissed. That is MY 23% haha. As you say nothing to see here and that money went into others that will have returned the same or better. Still doesn't fix the structural problem we have with our sharemarket

[Balance]

Yes that's why I'm pissed. That is MY 23% haha. As you say nothing to see here and that money went into others that will have returned the same or better. Still doesn't fix the structural problem we have with our sharemarket

Could have reinvested the proceeds in the other retirement village companies and come out just as well?

[dabsman]

Could have reinvested the proceeds in the other retirement village companies and come out just as well?

Yep money went into OCA and HGH

[Balance]

Yep money went into OCA and HGH

Good on you so be happy!

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Probably IPO again for $10 next year.

[Beagle]

Probably IPO again for $10 next year.

More likely in 2023 at 50 cents after a 30:1 share split. It must be cheap at 50 cents eh ;)

[Balance]

Blast from the past :

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/397953/378022.pdf

Will be many relieved ex-shareholders thankful for the $6.00 offer they took at the time!

[850man]

Blast from the past :

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/397953/378022.pdf

Will be many relieved ex-shareholders thankful for the $6.00 offer they took at the time!

I was certainly one of them, that was quite the roller coaster ride leading up to the $6 too. A few snippets from their report are interesting:
1. Debt has risen by $384.8 million to $742.6 million, reflecting increased momentum in building the development pipeline, developing new units and villages and the Selwyn acquisition, the balance sheet remains robust with gearing (debt to valuation) of 28%.
2. Net assets have increased to $2.1 billion, up 13% on FY21.
3. Net profit after tax was $78.7 million. The decrease from the prior year $304.4m

[Rawz]

More likely in 2023 at 50 cents after a 30:1 share split. It must be cheap at 50 cents eh ;)

What's your thoughts now?

[winner69]

Book Value tad under $6

Less than when taken over but heaps more shares on issue .... non accretive acquisitions