MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[Joshuatree]

This is very odd. Surely trading at 50% of net tangible property assets cannot go on forever??!!

Who are NZ Retirement Villages? Why would they be content with management and directors that deliver destruction of shareholder value while praising themselves for their "excellent performance against a challenging back drop"

!! ??

Meanwhile Ryman trades at 200% net tangible property assets and humbly credits their performance due to good service and consistent and simple operating model.

Will be interesting to wee outcome of the strategic review. Hopefully some improvement in liquidity and possibly some value will start to be realised....

:confused:

That was in 2011. MET has been a "bargain" for 8 years plus.

[Beagle]

That was in 2011. MET has been a "bargain" for 8 years plus.

5 years ago the outlook for Auckland property was sound and MET were trading just above book value.
No other stock in this sector currently trades at less than 110% (OCA) of book value. I think anyone looking to acquire this for less than NTA would have to come up with a very compelling argument to support their case, (not sure what that argument might be, certainly not lack of underlying earnings). I suppose they could point to the recent dip in IFRS reported profit for FY19 but that's clearly historical and there's enough evidence in the market to support the contention that the Auckland real estate market has turned a corner for the better already.
Doubt the directors could / would support a proposal to sell below NTA.

Can't help wondering if the mystery buyer might flush out other interest in MET ?

[peat]

I seem to recall you mentioning a takeover possibility at a particular price very recently Beagle.
You have certainly sniffed out a situation most serendipitously , Sir. I doff my hat to you.

The point that the stock has been undervalued for quite some time does of course decrease the time adjusted returns for those lacking in such astute timing as yourself. But it does support the adage about the market transferring money from the impatient to the patient.

Perhaps your suggestion that there is more value to be flushed out here, (should it pan out that way) will also support another adage floated around on these boards regarding the repeated raising of bids in takeovers. I think it was Balance who coined it.

[Beagle]

Thanks peat. Earlier this year several analysts had a $7 price target on this http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8d8fce5e/the-conundrum-of-metlifecare-s-discount-while-peers-trade-at-a-premium.html.

It'll be very interesting to see how this play's out.

[peat]

NTA's can be deceptive and prove to be somewhat different when the cookie crumbles. so it isnt always a guide to worth.
NZO was a bit different coz its NTA was mostly cash in the bank.
But this thread title speaks for itself.

[troyvdh]

A while back someone asked about the leaky house issue re MET.Was it answered ?
A few weeks back (on RNZ) I heard an interview with Jessie who was talking to a bloke (who sounded quite authoritative) who written a book about NZs biggest man made disaster..$40B +.
I live in CHCH ..there are 1000's of them.
I understand that this topic is not popular.

[Beagle]

Multi year program...about $40m to go in remediation work if I remember correctly. Has been provisioned for in the balance sheet already.

[winner69]

Multi year program...about $40m to go in remediation work if I remember correctly. Has been provisioned for in the balance sheet already.

Even if they ‘under-estimated’ the remediation cost (as most people do) by say $40m that only impacts NTA by 20 cents

[winner69]

ShareClarity has a DCF value for MET of $5.75

Spooky that’s about the share price today ...maybe it has traded up to what professionals see as a good price.

METs lower return on capital than SUM and RYM is mentioned. Might look at that.

[macduffy]

ShareClarity has a DCF value for MET of $5.75

Spooky that’s about the share price today ...maybe it has traded up to what professionals see as a good price.

METs lower return on capital than SUM and RYM is mentioned. Might look at that.

Or perhaps they just happened to use an interest rate that happens to produce that shareprice?

;)

[Beagle]

This is not just specific to MET. I don't rate share clarity at all. My opinion of them is so low I don't take any interest whatsoever of their DCF values even though Direct Broking annoyingly displays them on any depth enquiry.

For what its worth for anyone who might be tempted to think they know what they're doing, Share clarity's DCF's on other sector stocks, OCA 92 cents, SUM $4.97, RYM $9.61 ARV $1.15. Good luck trying to buy any of those shares for those prices lol

[King1212]

Update early next week..could play out well according to NZ herald

[winner69]

Apparently we have to chant this very morning

‘Metlifecare, Gotta buy more!’

[whome]

Whoa Winner, wonder where that came from LOL.

[Joshuatree]

The Winners have prob had a triple shot flat white in the sun at Oriental, gives one a rush;)

[Beagle]

Apparently we have to chant this very morning

‘Metlifecare, Gotta buy more!’

We had to change that from "you can't have too many" because that didn't work out too well with OCA lol

[winner69]

We had to change that from "you can't have too many" because that didn't work out too well with OCA lol

Thought of that when I.heard

Oceania a real dog eh .....doubt if the hype will even become reality

[Beagle]

Jury is out on OCA. If they can maintain profitability in their care business, (I am a little sceptical) then they will be good over the long term and steadily over the years as their business model changes earnings will rise.

Could be an interesting week for MET.

[Beagle]

Chris Lee (might have been following the barking or following his own nose to come to the same possible conclusion), names Summerset today in his newsletter as one possible party quite likely to be on the fishing expedition for MET. Makes sense as (previously noted) there is likely to be substantial synergies to be gained from such a possible deal.
If its some sort of scheme of arrangement which was ostensibly a merger of sorts they could name the new entity SUMMET, or perhaps better still for branding purposes "Summit" which has quite a nice feel to it :)
I wouldn't be surprised to see a trading halt at some stage this week.

[Scrunch]

Chris Lee (might have been following the barking or following his own nose to come to the same possible conclusion), names Summerset today in his newsletter as one possible party quite likely to be on the fishing expedition for MET.

Could be an interesting merger. The following consider MET (FY Jun 2019) +SUM (FY Jun 2019) vs RYM (FY Dec 2018)

Total Revenue $131m+$137m vs $382m (70% RYM)
Underlying net $90m+$99m vs $227m (83% RYM)
Independant living 3984+3732 vs 6,878 (> RYM)
Care beds (440+494)+858 vs 3,660 (49% RYM) - But OCA indicates margins are low
Net Assets $1,481m+$978m vs $2,170m (> RYM)
Total Assets $3,516m+$2,766m vs $6,652m (94% RYM)
Interest bearing $279m + $453m vs $1,324m (55% RYM) - So there's scope to increase this
New unit sales 116 + 339 vs 414 (> RYM)
Resales 369 + 301 vs 824 (81% RYM)
Land bank 1327+(3910+540) vs 6,593 (88% RYM)
Market Cap (today) $1,237m+$1,674m vs $7,220m (40% RYM)

Both SUM and MET could increase to $10 each and the market cap would still be under 70% of RYM

PS Hopefully no typo's have crept in above

[Baa_Baa]

for branding purposes "Summit" which has quite a nice feel to it :)
I wouldn't be surprised to see a trading halt at some stage this week.

"Welcome to Summit, where it's all downhill from here" ... maybe better we stick to the numbers and the charts? Would be pretty exciting to have a dual TH disclosing the potential bidder.
:eek2:

[flyer]

so if todays price of MET is too low, what price do you see as possible takeover? $6.50 ,$7??, maybe need to buy in the morning in case there is trading halt called.

[NOCASH]

so if todays price of MET is too low, what price do you see as possible takeover? $6.50 ,$7??, maybe need to buy in the morning in case there is trading halt called.


Exactly in the same position! I hold off buying This afternoon, after selling ALL my OCA’s shares..

I might jump in tomorrow morning just in-case offer comes in! Hope it will be $6.50+

Thanks.

[Scrunch]

so if todays price of MET is too low, what price do you see as possible takeover? $6.50 ,$7??, maybe need to buy in the morning in case there is trading halt called.

The market has been trading for a couple of days knowing there a low-ball takeover has been indicated. The current $5.80 price represents what is known. Everyone on here is simply speculating on possibilities - myself included. The premium on takeovers is highly variable so that doesn't give sufficient clarity to know a possible takeover price - should a bid materialise. I think it would need to be pretty close to, if not above NTA to go through.

If SUM is the bidder, my guess is the offer would be a mixture of cash and script. Its unlikely SUM could, or would want to borrow enough for a full cash offer and probably wouldn't want to do a large rights issue to gain the cash to make that sort of offer.

Lets just hope the "low" offer isn't like the "low" offer STU got and stuffed up.

[winner69]

Still got a few weeks to ‘gotta buy more’

Jardens involved ...don’t expect to have much more to say for two weeks

[Beagle]

A few observations.
1. FCNZ, (now Jarden) were the original house that floated the idea of a SUM - MET merger.
2. Jarden without question have the best analysts and investment bankers in N.Z.
3. This is obviously being taken very seriously and I would expect the various working groups comprise, (among other things) experts looking at the value of the synergies.
4. Complex deals at fair value take quite a lot of time and application of expert talent and I for one am pleased they are taking their time to look at this in a diligent and thorough manner.
5. I would think its now more likely than not that something will come out of this as if the indicative non binding terms were woefully inadequate the proposal would have been kicked to the curb already.
6. Forward underlying PE by my estimate for MET is just 11.7 @ $5.80, the cheapest in the sector. Considering the stock is obviously in play I am a little surprised we're not a bit over $6 already.
If you haven't already got SUM-MET I don't think its too late.

[winner69]

A few observations.
1. FCNZ, (now Jarden) were the original house that floated the idea of a SUM - MET merger.
2. Jarden without question have the best analysts and investment bankers in N.Z.
3. This is obviously being taken very seriously and I would expect the various working groups comprise, (among other things) experts looking at the value of the synergies.
4. Complex deals at fair value take quite a lot of time and application of expert talent and I for one am pleased they are taking their time to look at this in a diligent and thorough manner.
5. I would think its now more likely than not that something will come out of this as if the indicative non binding terms were woefully inadequate the proposal would have been kicked to the curb already.
6. Forward underlying PE by my estimate for MET is just 11.7 @ $5.80, the cheapest in the sector. Considering the stock is obviously in play I am a little surprised we're not a bit over $6 already.
If you haven't already got SUM-MET I don't think its too late.

Seems likes it’s all go eh

I’d rather be a MET shareholder today than a SUM one.

[Beagle]

Yes, I agree and I would think a deal is now quite likely so I bought more MET this morning and now have more invested in MET than SUM.

[NOCASH]

Umm.... what happened to MET? I bought in at $5.80 this morning and it closed at $6.09? is there some type of error for the rush buy before closing?

[winner69]

Umm.... what happened to MET? I bought in at $5.80 this morning and it closed at $6.09? is there some type of error for the rush buy before closing?

No errors - just Beagle and afew others getting in before it goes to $6.25 and then $6.50 and then $7.00 before it becomes all official

[NOCASH]

No errors - just Beagle and afew others getting in before it goes to $6.25 and then $6.50 and then $7.00 before it becomes all official

Thanks, I thought it was Jarden staffs spreading the news around the office and to there close friends, mum and dad to buy buy MET, early XMAS Surprise!

[Beagle]

Thanks, I thought it was Jarden staffs spreading the news around the office and to there close friends, mum and dad to buy buy MET, early XMAS Surprise!

Brokers never do that :D
I emailed Julian Cook today and asked if it was Summerset. I think its a very safe bet he won't reply due to confidentiality agreements so the real reason I emailed him was to tell him I thought it was a great idea and the synergies would be quite significant. Sometimes CEO's like a bit of encouragement from shareholders...it can be a bit lonely at the top and an encouraging yap is probably something I think he would like. I look forward to congratulating him at the next annual Summerset meeting.
Might even be able to entice Winner along to that one as it will be more fun than normal.

[winner69]

Brokers never do that :D
I emailed Julian Cook today and asked if it was Summerset. I think its a very safe bet he won't reply due to confidentiality agreements so the real reason I emailed him was to tell him I thought it was a great idea and the synergies would be quite significant. Sometimes CEO's like a bit of encouragement from shareholders...it can be a bit lonely at the top and an encouraging yap is probably something I think he would like. I look forward to congratulating him at the next annual Summerset meeting.
Might even be able to entice Winner along to that one as it will be more fun than normal.

Hope you and Julian have read 'The Synergy Trap' by Mark Sirower

Warns about the 'precise' synergies implicitly embedded in acquisition premiums and that at the end of the day they are often not captured.

And you would like this warning - beware of seductiveness and danger of sophisticated valuation models so often used by advisers.....probbly Jardens will come up with the answer their customer wants but I wonder what Julins model says what he can pay if really keen ...bugger, forgot 'synergies' are the balancing factor.

[couta1]

Beagles barking was hurting my ears so much I put an order in to buy some and got a partial fill near close, see what tomorrow brings.

[RupertBear]

A few observations.
1. FCNZ, (now Jarden) were the original house that floated the idea of a SUM - MET merger.
2. Jarden without question have the best analysts and investment bankers in N.Z.
3. This is obviously being taken very seriously and I would expect the various working groups comprise, (among other things) experts looking at the value of the synergies.
4. Complex deals at fair value take quite a lot of time and application of expert talent and I for one am pleased they are taking their time to look at this in a diligent and thorough manner.
5. I would think its now more likely than not that something will come out of this as if the indicative non binding terms were woefully inadequate the proposal would have been kicked to the curb already.
6. Forward underlying PE by my estimate for MET is just 11.7 @ $5.80, the cheapest in the sector. Considering the stock is obviously in play I am a little surprised we're not a bit over $6 already.
If you haven't already got SUM-MET I don't think its too late.

“Beagles barking was hurting my ears so much I put an order in to buy”

Yep the barking got to me too Couta and I bought some at $5.80. Guess it never hurts to be rounded up by a Beagle eh :D

[winner69]

If an acquirer like Summerset reckon there’s say $20m of ‘synergies’ there’s always debate as to who the value of these synergies ‘belong’ to. Capitalised over many years quite a sum.

Should Metlifecare shareholders expect to get ‘paid’ for them or should Summerset as the acquirer expect to benefit (in theory) into the future seeing they are taking on the risk......or maybe sort of shared out.

[peat]

Considering the stock is obviously in play I am a little surprised we're not a bit over $6 already.
If you haven't already got SUM-MET I don't think its too late.

you are a bit spooky mate.

[Baa_Baa]

If an acquirer like Summerset reckon there’s say $20m of ‘synergies’ there’s always debate as to who the value of these synergies ‘belong’ to. Capitalised over many years quite a sum.

Should Metlifecare shareholders expect to get ‘paid’ for them or should Summerset as the acquirer expect to benefit (in theory) into the future seeing they are taking on the risk......or maybe sort of shared out.

Until it's clear who the potential acquirer is, it's just speculation - interesting but academic - until the bidder shows its hand. Beagle laid out a very clear and long list of reasons why MET was a very poor investment some time ago, before he changed his mind and decided it was the best opportunity in the sector. Those reasons though haven't completely gone away, far from it, it's just that they're not talked about anymore, or are muted in the currently enamoured commentary.

Any acquirer will naturally balance the upside sector opportunity against the inherent issues MET have to deal with, to discount the bid price somewhere around NTA plus a small bonus for investors to get them over the line. It's almost like mana from heaven for shareholders that MET have struggled so badly for such a long time that they'll consider any lifeline from an acquirer to ease their suffering.

None of that discounts the market opportunity speculating on buying a share at lows and flicking it into a rising euphoria. The market and the company aren't as closely correlated lately as they have been for quite a long time.

[Beagle]

Beagles barking was hurting my ears so much I put an order in to buy some and got a partial fill near close, see what tomorrow brings.
The barking was nice and clear at $4.40 ! Better late than never to a good party though so welcome aboard to you and the hungry little bear. I bought more this morning myself at $5.80 so clearly I think there's plenty of juice left in this deal.


If an acquirer like Summerset reckon there’s say $20m of ‘synergies’ there’s always debate as to who the value of these synergies ‘belong’ to. Capitalised over many years quite a sum.

Should Metlifecare shareholders expect to get ‘paid’ for them or should Summerset as the acquirer expect to benefit (in theory) into the future seeing they are taking on the risk......or maybe sort of shared out.
Like buying a house with potential isn't it mate. The buyer who does the work to crystalize the potential deserves the reward and that's why I think NTA of $7 or only a very slight premium over that, should be enough to carry the day.

[Beagle]

Until it's clear who the potential acquirer is, it's just speculation - interesting but academic - until the bidder shows its hand. Beagle laid out a very clear and long list of reasons why MET was a very poor investment some time ago, before he changed his mind and decided it was the best opportunity in the sector. Those reasons though haven't completely gone away, far from it, it's just that they're not talked about anymore, or are muted in the currently enamoured commentary.

Any acquirer will naturally balance the upside sector opportunity against the inherent issues MET have to deal with, to discount the bid price somewhere around NTA plus a small bonus for investors to get them over the line. It's almost like mana from heaven for shareholders that MET have struggled so badly for such a long time that they'll consider any lifeline from an acquirer to ease their suffering.

None of that discounts the market opportunity speculating on buying a share at lows and flicking it into a rising euphoria. The market and the company aren't as closely correlated lately as they have been for quite a long time.

To be fair I was right and the share price has been a great disappointment until quite recently. Its clear in recent months the Auckland market has turned a corner and even a cursory look at the chart showed quite clearly a fairly solid base in the share price had been built over several months. Once it broke out above the 100 day MA evidence was emerging that the Auckland market is recovering from a long malaise and the outlook had changed. I bought at that point and clearly articulated why immediately after buying, you can't ask for or expect more than that !

Nobody is pretending remedial actions for weathertightness have suddenly disappeared and I have made that point several times about what their program is and likely cost but it has already been fully provisioned to arrive at NTA of $6.96 as at 30 June 2019. I think it would be a fair bet to suggest that one of the working groups will be looking into this and tasked with reviewing where these works are at and whether provisioning already accounted for is enough to complete the job.

I also made the point they are certainly not the only listed operator with weathertightness issues on some of their buildings, its just that the others tend to keep a lot quieter about them.

I agree with you on only a small bonus above NTA being apprpriate. $7.25 should be enough to get this over the line.


you are a bit spooky mate.

:D :D :D

[couta1]

Imagine if the buyer is Macca the elephant, how does a MET-OCA combo sound. :eek2:

[Beagle]

Macca's can have mine but I want $8.50 if its them :)

[Joshuatree]

Brookfield Property group stole Aveo AOG on ASX way below asset backing, hope its not them fishing.

[Beagle]

Brookfield Property group stole Aveo AOG on ASX way below asset backing, hope its not them fishing.

That pup had cancer, MET just has a few fleas and nothing a good dose of flea powder won't fix :)

[Joshuatree]

No it didnt , maybe fleas but the whole sector has been in the doldrums in Aus.

[King1212]

Aveo ex director **** Pooh at their own resident unit....u called that just a flea? Plus corrupted Malaysian owner?

[winner69]

The barking was nice and clear at $4.40 ! Better late than never to a good party though so welcome aboard to you and the hungry little bear. I bought more this morning myself at $5.80 so clearly I think there's plenty of juice left in this deal.


Like buying a house with potential isn't it mate. The buyer who does the work to crystalize the potential deserves the reward and that's why I think NTA of $7 or only a very slight premium over that, should be enough to carry the day.

Yes the beagle did start barking at 440 ...so loud dog control was called in try and cut the noise down

Wasn’t that long ago either ....40% gain with plenty more to come pretty good effort

That beagle got the timing right big time

[Brain]

I think everyone (except baa) is getting a bit overexcited with this. I will stay well clear it could end in tears.

[Beagle]

Forward underlying PE (for this company growing earnings on average at 15% per annum) at $5.80 is just 11.7 making it the cheapest in the sector by quite some margin, (as mentioned previously). There's the fallback right there and if that's tears, then cry me a river :)

[BlackPeter]

I think everyone (except baa) is getting a bit overexcited with this. I will stay well clear it could end in tears.

You might have a point ... the chart certainly looks breathtaking:

10867

In normal times people might watch for this gap above $5.25 to be filled - and then - look at the RSI. But hey, it all depends on how these takeover discussions are going ... SP might keep crawling up (though I doubt it will go much over NTA) - or it might come crashing down. Exciting times.

Discl: hold (and wish I would have bought more below $5 ...);

[Joshuatree]

Aveo ex director **** Pooh at their own resident unit....u called that just a flea? Plus corrupted Malaysian owner?

Funny that, i switched from TV3 news here when they made a tourist pooing in the gutter headline news a while back. Sure media are in perfect storm so anything to get attention, dumbing down with gutter triviality to survive! Fleas.


Brookfield were the main buyers, along with shareholder Mulpha whose business culture is prob normal back home, massively leveraged. Cant imagine MET going that cheap here though, the business models and environment here are more profitable in a better cycle atm . Brookfield could be fishing, testing with a lowball offer though.MET has been undervalued and underperforming for a long time.

[Beagle]

Funny that, i switched from TV3 news here when they made a tourist pooing in the gutter headline news a while back. Sure media are in perfect storm so anything to get attention, dumbing down with gutter triviality to survive! Fleas.


Brookfield were the main buyers, along with shareholder Mulpha whose business culture is prob normal back home, massively leveraged. Cant imagine MET going that cheap here though, the business models and environment here are more profitable in a better cycle atm . Brookfield could be fishing, testing with a lowball offer though.MET has been undervalued and underperforming for a long time.

Underlying profit grew 97% in the five years to 30 June 2019, (92% for RYM). Those numbers and that benchmark comparative speak for themselves...and those numbers when for many years the Auckland market was very flat. If that's underperformance then I hope it simply continues at exactly the same rate :t_up:

[Joshuatree]

Cheers for that.How about longterm over 10 years. i note the s/p for both
RYM from re $2.50 to $14.00
MET re $2.40 to re $4.50 before take-over talk. Dont know how much share dilution over that time

[Beagle]

My view is that companies change a lot over time and going back further than the most recent 5 year comparative analysis is more likely than not, to be unhelpful.

[Joshuatree]

Says it all to me, MET hadn't even doubled RYM on the way to 6 bagger ! Anyways good luck to current holders, hope a real deal is offered, although id hate to see another company head offshore.

[Beagle]

Says it all to me, MET hadn't even doubled RYM on the way to 6 bagger ! Anyways good luck to current holders, hope a real deal is offered, although id hate to see another company head offshore.

If price is all you're interested and you're simply following TA that's fine but as I alluded too when MET were in the low $4's MET's forward underlying PE was only 10 and RYM's nearly triple that at about 28 so MET shareholders are getting vastly better value, and that from a company that's actually grown underlying earnings faster in the last 5 years despite a flat Auckland housing market.

Youi either get it than RYM is trading on long distant past glories of faster growth rates, or you don't, and there's plenty who have an attachment to the stock because of the wealth its built for them over time, which is fine and perfectly understandable but that in itself doesn't mean the stock is value or a buy at $14+ for others.
I try and find stocks where the TA and FA are compelling. It doesn't happen very often but when it does then its happy days :t_up:

The forecast underlying earnings per share for SUM, MET and RYM for FY20 are not much different to each other...only a matter of a few cents per share. Hmmm, maybe they should all merge :lol:

[macduffy]

The forecast underlying earnings per share for SUM, MET and RYM for FY20 are not much different to each other...only a matter of a few cents per share. Hmmm, maybe they should all merge

What? And give us another "market dominator"?

Like Fonterra?

:laugh:

[winner69]

I hope the Metlifecare Board will not reject a ‘decent’ offer outright because they consider it ‘undervalues the company’ or whatever the phrase is.

Even if the offer is only ‘half decent’ in their eyes they should still let long suffering shareholders have a say/decide .....some/many looking for the get out jail free card.

Be good if it all became hostile.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12289691

[Beagle]

Slightly stronger tone to MET bidding today. Leaky ship after SUM progress over the weekend ?

[winner69]

Slightly stronger tone to MET bidding today. Leaky ship after SUM progress over the weekend ?

I think you are seeing things that aren’t really there ...but a good story anyway

“Gotta buy more Metlifecare”

[couta1]

I think you are seeing things that aren’t really there ...but a good story anyway

“Gotta buy more Metlifecare” Nope he's right, Friday's close had an excess of shares for sale at $5.84 that were not matched.

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117891274/barfoot--thompson-auckland-prices-rising-at-rate-not-seen-since-market-peak

I think the "credible" interested party will be pleased to see Auckland's house prices showing robust growth again.

[Scrunch]

Brokers never do that :D
I emailed Julian Cook today and asked if it was Summerset. I think its a very safe bet he won't reply due to confidentiality agreements.

I presume you haven't had a response saying no - not us.

[macduffy]

I presume you haven't had a response saying no - not us.

Nobody expects a reply. Not only would it breach any confidentiality agreements, it would also breach stock exchange rules. Beagle, with his tongue in his cheek, would have been well aware of this!

;)

[winner69]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117891274/barfoot--thompson-auckland-prices-rising-at-rate-not-seen-since-market-peak

I think the "credible" interested party will be pleased to see Auckland's house prices showing robust growth again.

Prices going gangbusters in Australia as well ...Melbourne in particular ...Melbourne recorded a 2.2% rise following a 2.3% gain in Oct that was the strongest since 2009. Having come through a milder price correction, the gains mean Melbourne prices are now only 3.7% below their late 2017 peak.

I’ll post that on the Ryman thread as it means something over there

[Beagle]

Prices going gangbusters in Australia as well ...Melbourne in particular ...Melbourne recorded a 2.2% rise following a 2.3% gain in Oct that was the strongest since 2009. Having come through a milder price correction, the gains mean Melbourne prices are now only 3.7% below their late 2017 peak.

I’ll post that on the Ryman thread as it means something over there

Sounds good. Probably means SUM timed their entry into the Melbourne market really well too. Melbourne probably "the" place to live in Australia now, the rest of the place (excluding Tasmania), is simply too hot !!

Whoever is looking to buy out MET looks like they are very cunning with their timing.

[Beagle]

Good appointments and strong development program. Interesting timing announcing this right in the middle of discussions with the "credible" buyer. I guess one of the working groups will be looking at assessing future profitability from this expanded development program.
Heck that might force the takeover price to start with an 8 as the first number !
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/345571/313504.pdf
“We have strong confidence in the unique competitive positioning of each of these new villages and are excited to be underway with this acceleration in our development programme which marks a new era for Metlifecare,” said Mr Sowry."
Reads like a "pay up" type statement to me.

[Joshuatree]

The takeover threat has put a rocket up them, thats a good spin thing.

[couta1]

Good sized seller lurking here.

[RTM]

Good sized seller lurking here.

Same person who started the takeover story ?:)

[Beagle]

A case of watch this space I think. Santa is lurking and could pay us a visit with an early Christmas present :)

[winner69]

Deal completed over weekend?

Is today the big pay day

Whatever the price I fear beags will think they stole it

[Beagle]

I think updated NTA as at 31 December will be about 2-4% more than the $6.96 as at 30 June 2019 so $7.25 should do it and would be fair and reasonable in my opinion.

[winner69]

I think updated NTA as at 31 December will be about 2-4% more than the $6.96 as at 30 June 2019 so $7.25 should do it and would be fair and reasonable in my opinion.

Couts theorem would say $7.80 would be fair

Surely they’d sell for more than Book Value

[Beagle]

Couts theorem would say $7.80 would be fair

Surely they’d sell for more than Book Value

Coutts might be right. The whole sector is trading at a pretty solid premium to NTA. OCA is the lowest at an 11% premium to NTA.
For what its worth MET's last reported NTA of $6.96 + 11% = $7.72.
My sense is for this deal to proceed the first number must be a "7" as a minimum. I think its highly unlikely the board would agree to any sort of deal below NTA.
What the next number after a 7 is, is anyone's guess.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/345661/313605.pdf

ACC have been busy adding to their position.

[peat]

ACC have bought a couple of million (2.2) over the last 9 months.
The last transaction was a few days ago, which I guess we can assume was a buy taking them over the 1% variation limit.

[Beagle]

Extract from announcement 26 November 2019 - 2 weeks ago
At this stage the company does not anticipate providing any further update on
this matter for at least the next two weeks.
Obviously its been 2 weeks but they did say "at least" two weeks.
I am hopeful for an update in the next week or so. I believe to get the support of the board, as previously mentioned, any deal has to start with a 7 as the first figure.
Anything less than NTA of $6.96 would have this dog in "full cry"...get your earmuffs on standby just in case :lol:

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/344571/312210.pdf

Original announcement was 3 weeks ago today.
My view on this is the longer negotiations go on and working groups and investment bankers work on this the greater the chance a deal will happen.

[dabsman]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/344571/312210.pdf

Original announcement was 3 weeks ago today.
My view on this is the longer negotiations go on and working groups and investment bankers work on this the greater the chance a deal will happen.

Completely agree. I bought a lot in the 4's as I could not understand the massive discount to NTA even with water tighness issues already budgeted. I think someone with a more aggressive focus will create a lot of value buying MET. MET have some amazing locations in Auckland so the brownfield opportunity just in the existing portfolio is huge

[couta1]

Boredom and impatience showing its face today but I'm following the Beagles nose on this one(If it works out I will owe him that much cider he will be incapable of standing on his skis when we meet next winter)

[Beagle]

Boredom and impatience showing its face today but I'm following the Beagles nose on this one(If it works out I will owe him that much cider he will be incapable of standing on his skis when we meet next winter)

LOL - Half the time I'm incapable of standing on my skis when sober :lol:
Yeap, I topped up with a few more this morning.

[mfd]

Market price seems to suggest either a deal is unlikely or any offer will be well below NTA. What will holders do if they are offered something in the low 600s?

[King1212]

Whether a deal or no deal...MET will be a great share to hold. With 900m project on track next 2 years plus 30m share buyback program in place just in case the deal is dropped

[winner69]

Market price seems to suggest either a deal is unlikely or any offer will be well below NTA. What will holders do if they are offered something in the low 600s?

Under a Scheme of Arrangement at say 650 that has the Boards blessing we on ST will probably have little say to what the eventual outcome is .....except protest loudly and moan and groan and vote against it to show we’ve done something

[mfd]

Under a Scheme of Arrangement at say 650 that has the Boards blessing we on ST will probably have little say to what the eventual outcome is .....except protest loudly and moan and groan and vote against it to show we’ve done something

You're probably right. NZO was a brief glimmer of people power, but also highlights the short-term share price risk if no deal eventuates.

[Beagle]

Market price seems to suggest either a deal is unlikely or any offer will be well below NTA. What will holders do if they are offered something in the low 600s?

Did you miss this announcement ? http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/345571/313504.pdf

Its quite clear MET is entering a new phase of enhanced development. I think its extremely unlikely the board would support any deal below NTA which was $6.96 as at 30 June 2019 and could be about 3-4% more since then given property price gains since. I'd say anything under $7.25 isn't going to get support from anyone.

This is very different to the NZO situation. Underlying earnings growth has averaged 15% per annum for the last 5 years and is set to continue.
Historical PE of just 13.8 at $5.85. Happy to hold if the deal doesn't happen but I think this is a SUM - MET merger and people will get 1 SUM share for each MET and I am more than happy with that too, although will end up holding quite a SUM of SUM shares then :t_up:

My contact at SUM has always replied to my emails before, but not this time.
Working groups are usually appointed when a merger is in the works.
Make of that what you will but I have drawn my own speculative conclusions.

Other evidence that a deal is likely at a reasonable price is that this would never of been referred to Jarden and working groups appointed to work their guts out for weeks on it if the deal wasn't reasonable. i.e. a low ball offer would have been kicked to the kerb already.

Probably worth noting that no other retirement company listed on the NZX trades at a discount to NTA and the lowest premium to NTA any other listed company trades on is OCA at 1.1 times NTA. I'm okay with and will support a deal at 1.1 times adjusted NTA as at 31 December 2019 = 1.1.x ~ 7.25 = ~ $8 or 1 SUM shares for every MET share because SUM shares are really worth $8 anyway :D

[Beagle]

Whether a deal or no deal...MET will be a great share to hold. With 900m project on track next 2 years plus 30m share buyback program in place just in case the deal is dropped

Agree 100%


You're probably right. NZO was a brief glimmer of people power, but also highlights the short-term share price risk if no deal eventuates.
Great example of people power blocking an unfair scheme of arrangement. Holders know the risks and potential rewards going forward.

[mfd]

You may be right, time will tell and it'll be a great result for shareholders if you are. However, with the share price sitting a dollar below NTA you appear to be in a minority at the moment.

[peat]

you appear to be in a minority at the moment.

You underestimate the Beagles superior sniffing capabilities.

[bohemian]

I see Craigs have a research note on MET out today rating it a buy.

[freddagg]

I see Craigs have a research note on MET out today rating it a buy.

They have been rating it a buy for a long time now. I have been listening and buying for a long time. I think Beagle is right and they are still good buying but I find it hard to buy more now as I the ones I own were so much cheaper.

[whome]

1089810899

[whome]

Earthworks for a new MET village well underway at Beachlands, East Auckland. Due completion in 2 years time as I understand.

[dabsman]

I live a few hundred meters from it. I'll take a look around at some point and post some pics of progress

[macduffy]

They have been rating it a buy for a long time now. I have been listening and buying for a long time. I think Beagle is right and they are still good buying but I find it hard to buy more now as I the ones I own were so much cheaper.

Averaging up is usually a much sounder strategy than averaging down!

[couta1]

Averaging up is usually a much sounder strategy than averaging down! Both are good but averaging down is my preferred choice.

[oldtech]

Both are good but averaging down is my preferred choice.

I have averaged down a few times in some shares and it has worked well (eg AIR a couple of years ago), but surely it depends on the nature of the specific share being talked about.

It would take someone far braver than me to average down in THL or MPG right now!

[couta1]

I have averaged down a few times in some shares and it has worked well (eg AIR a couple of years ago), but surely it depends on the nature of the specific share being talked about.

It would take someone far braver than me to average down in THL or MPG right now! For sure but I wouldn't even touch either of those two let alone average down.

[Joshuatree]

Averaging up is the normal investor strategy, much lower risk. Averaging down for those who really have done their research and know the intrinsic value of the stock and see an opp to top up due to mkt aberrations etc. Traders will do it differently. All depends on your own risk status/situ.

Been a perfect melt up for MET with poss takeover offer in the works, int rates forming a base and prop values in Auckland showing green shoots. But what will happen to the s/p if this offer doesn't succeed , is too lowball etc, where will the floor in the s/p be?

[limmy]

Averaging up is the normal investor strategy, much lower risk. Averaging down for those who really have done their research and know the intrinsic value of the stock and see an opp to top up due to mkt aberrations etc. Traders will do it differently. All depends on your own risk status/situ.

Been a perfect melt up for MET with poss takeover offer in the works, int rates forming a base and prop values in Auckland showing green shoots. But what will happen to the s/p if this offer doesn't succeed , is too lowball etc, where will the floor in the s/p be?
One would presume that it should go to the price it was last sold at, before the announcement. Was that about 3 weeks ago, from memory ?

[mfd]

Price was around 5.2 before the offer, but already in an uptrend (for unrelated reasons, I'm sure). Best case is the extra attention and recent development announcement boosts the price a little, although the announcement did not budge the SP at the time of release. Maybe mid 5s?

[limmy]

Price was around 5.2 before the offer, but already in an uptrend (for unrelated reasons, I'm sure). Best case is the extra attention and recent development announcement boosts the price a little, although the announcement did not budge the SP at the time of release. Maybe mid 5s?
Good point.

[peat]

Best case is the extra attention and recent development announcement boosts the price a LOT...

I fixed it for ya ;+)

I think there will be a strong re-rating , and that will continue during the remedial work process that has been costed but not completed. Its likely that some of that work at least will blow budget hence the remaining discount I suspect.

[Beagle]

Adding a budget blow-out of a whopping $40m extra to already budgeted remedial work is worth 18.8 cps. NTA probably up by around that since 30 June 2019 anyway...
No way this deal happens without at least a "7" as the first number in my opinion even providing for possible overruns in remedial work.

[peat]

Adding a budget blow-out of a whopping $40m extra to already budgeted remedial work is worth 18.8 cps.
I'd need more context to evaluate but my point is that some stuff REALLY blows out, and until the work is completed no 20% contingency line item is sufficient to cover the risk. Especially with leaky stuff.

[Balance]

Adding a budget blow-out of a whopping $40m extra to already budgeted remedial work is worth 18.8 cps. NTA probably up by around that since 30 June 2019 anyway...
No way this deal happens without at least a "7" as the first number in my opinion even providing for possible overruns in remedial work.

My pick is that next week could be when an announcement is made if the takeovers of Trade Me and RBD (partial) provide some guide:

- Trade Me, indicative non binding offer was received on 21 Nov and offer made 12 December 2018 (3 weeks).

- RBD, indicative non binding offer made on 18 Oct, and update on need for Yum consent made on 9 Nov (3 weeks) with formal offer made, 26 Nov.

Offer on MET made on 20 Nov so next week (16 Dec >) would make it into the 4th week and they would want this wrap up before Christmas week.

[Beagle]

My pick is that next week could be when an announcement is made if the takeovers of Trade Me and RBD (partial) provide some guide:

- Trade Me, indicative non binding offer was received on 21 Nov and offer made 12 December 2018 (3 weeks).

- RBD, indicative non binding offer made on 18 Oct, and update on need for Yum consent made on 9 Nov (3 weeks) with formal offer made, 26 Nov.

Offer on MET made on 20 Nov so next week (16 Dec >) would make it into the 4th week and they would want this wrap up before Christmas week.

I agree and am expecting at the least, an update on progress next week.

[Beagle]

I'd need more context to evaluate but my point is that some stuff REALLY blows out, and until the work is completed no 20% contingency line item is sufficient to cover the risk. Especially with leaky stuff.

I agree 100% Peat and I am pretty confident that one of the working groups appointed has been looking into the issue you highlight.

[Scrunch]

I'd need more context to evaluate but my point is that some stuff REALLY blows out, and until the work is completed no 20% contingency line item is sufficient to cover the risk. Especially with leaky stuff.

As they have been progressively addressing this problem for a while the estimate should be based on some good actual cost data. That said I don't know if the provisioning is light, pretty accurate or over done.

[winner69]

Deal Sure to be announced pre-open

Had a great afternoon with mates Friday afternoon and forgot about topping up on MET

Will be expensive distraction missing out on the $1.50 per share gain

[Baa_Baa]

Deal Sure to be announced pre-open

Had a great afternoon with mates Friday afternoon and forgot about topping up on MET

Will be expensive distraction missing out on the $1.50 per share gain

Already up $1.85, so another $1.50 would be quite the windfall over 3 months.

[winner69]

Already up $1.85, so another $1.50 would be quite the windfall over 3 months.

Winner Analytics Ltd report to Mr Couta was just a few days prior to the takeover story broke

Got in at $5.20 odd so haven’t reaped the $1.85 you mention ...that was for clever guys like you and beagle

But another $1.50 will be OK

[peat]

Deal Sure to be announced pre-open



sounds a bit flippant
(and not to be relied on)?

any particular reason for saying it other than having something to say?

more chances to fill yer boots up today then!

[winner69]

sounds a bit flippant
(and not to be relied on)?

any particular reason for saying it other than having something to say?

more chances to fill yer boots up today then!

Deals are often completed over the weekend and I’m sure if serious they want a Xmas break

And as I said I was going to miss out in filling me boots up because of distractions

But it didn’t happen so filling me boots this morning

Then again IT may never happen

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/344571/312210.pdf

Original announcement was 3 weeks ago today.
My view on this is the longer negotiations go on and working groups and investment bankers work on this the greater the chance a deal will happen.

Have to concede I was also hopeful of an announcement this morning but the above posted on 11 December is still my view.
Disc: I topped up a few more on Friday last week.

[winner69]

Share price looking good today, especially in light of overall sector weakness.

[Balance]

Share price looking good today, especially in light of overall sector weakness.

Moving north of $6.00 now - word starting to get out?

[Beagle]

Moving north of $6.00 now - word starting to get out?

You beat me to it, I was just thinking exactly the same thing.

[winner69]

Moving north of $6.00 now - word starting to get out?

Will want it all sorted by Xmas .....everybody deserves to spend time with family at this time of the year.

[Balance]

Will want it all sorted by Xmas .....everybody deserves to spend time with family at this time of the year.

You are such a caring soul, W69!

[Beagle]

Just had a left field thought, probably miles off the mark but who knows. Maybe its Ryman ? The way their share price has been going lately and with their massive 3.5 times share price to NTA, they could possibly have the most to gain ???

[couta1]

FOMO setting in, let hope the Beagle is barking up the right tree here.

[Oliver Mander]

I got some more at $5.95 this morning. Means I've 'averaged up' from $5.20, but think this is okay regardless.

[winner69]

You are such a caring soul, W69!

If you don’t spend enough time with your family you often have to resign eh

But if you were just an advisor would you want to work through Xmas

[Oliver Mander]

Just had a left field thought, probably miles off the mark but who knows. Maybe its Ryman ? The way their share price has been going lately and with their massive 3.5 times share price to NTA, they could possibly have the most to gain ???

Oh go on Beagle...I'll bite! On that basis, I'm going to suggest its Arvida - a) they have form in taking over operators (albeit smaller) and b) their share prices has also risen strongly over the last fortnight!
Now we just need someone to suggest its OCA and we've got the trifecta :-)!!!

[Beagle]

LOL. I see ARV is at an all time high, (hard to believe TJ hasn't commented on that already today).
Lovely fairly tale for this time of year my furry friend but I suspect an $8 billion market cap company like RYM would find the takeover going of a $1.3 billion market cap company, MET, a little easier than a relative minnow market cap of $541m Arvida or $609m market cap OCA trying to take over a company more than twice their size.
SUM merger, $1.7 billion market cap still my favourite theory by SUM small margin but RYM also a real possibility.

[winner69]

It’ll be some overseas investor I reckon.

[Benny1]

It’ll be some overseas investor I reckon.
I'm with you on this one... Another private equity play from Aussie?
Hmm... Marquarie already in the retirement sector... Takeover MET.. Get rid off some of the old villages. Package it up with what they still own in OCA and sell them off as a combined unit....
Just a thought...

[Oliver Mander]

LOL. I see ARV is at an all time high, (hard to believe TJ hasn't commented on that already today).
Lovely fairly tale for this time of year my furry friend but I suspect an $8 billion market cap company like RYM would find the takeover going of a $1.3 billion market cap company, MET, a little easier than a relative minnow market cap of $541m Arvida or $609m market cap OCA trying to take over a company more than twice their size.
SUM merger, $1.7 billion market cap still my favourite theory by SUM small margin but RYM also a real possibility.

Ahhh Beagle me old mate, never let the facts get in the way of a fairytale!!
(its ok - I do realise the relative size difference, tongue planted firmly in cheek)

[RTM]

Dividend isn't high enough for me in the event that nothing happens and I'm left holding them for a bit longer.
Watching enviously from the sidelines…..good luck all.

[winner69]

I think it bad if Summerset were the interested party ...speaking as a shareholder of both.

[couta1]

Dividend isn't high enough for me in the event that nothing happens and I'm left holding them for a bit longer.
Watching enviously from the sidelines…..good luck all. Its like any lottery, you have to be in to win especially when the chances are high.

[BlackPeter]

Just had a left field thought, probably miles off the mark but who knows. Maybe its Ryman ? The way their share price has been going lately and with their massive 3.5 times share price to NTA, they could possibly have the most to gain ???

Well, in that case as MET shareholder I probably would not fight hard to avoid a 1:1 conversion to Ryman shares ;); I could then sell these new Ryman shares and swap them for SUM :t_up:

[Beagle]

Mana from heaven. Somehow at the close they filled my small top up order for a few thousand more at $5.92 despite not closing there...go figure but I am not one to look a gift horse in the mouth :t_up:

[winner69]

Mana from heaven. Somehow at the close they filled my small top up order for a few thousand more at $5.92 despite not closing there...go figure but I am not one to look a gift horse in the mouth :t_up:

Tinny bugger ...but they say the market didn’t ‘close’

Whatever take the gift.

[winner69]

Wondering how much influence The Queen is having behind the scenes as the sale unfolds....or maybe she’s behind this

NZ Super Fund guys help The Queen in these matters.

[Balance]

Tinny bugger ...but they say the market didn’t ‘close’

Whatever take the gift.

There was obvious buying today in anticipation of an announcement anytime now.

Be a bit of a bugger for those looking to top up towards market close today if the announcement comes out tomorrow morning! :eek2:

[winner69]

No news so far this week

I think tomorrow is crunch time one way or the other

[Balance]

No news so far this week

I think tomorrow is crunch time one way or the other

Could be Christmas Eve, W69.

High stakes negotiation taking place and according to AFR article I was reading this morning, many an investment banker has had his/her Christmas hols cancelled or postponed due to need to get deals done!

[winner69]

Could be Christmas Eve, W69.

High stakes negotiation taking place and according to AFR article I was reading this morning, many an investment banker has had his/her Christmas hols cancelled or postponed due to need to get deals done!

Could well be .....get those deals done by year end and get the bonuses up.

[Balance]

Could well be .....get those deals done by year end and get the bonuses up.

But as a general rule, a good deal is a fast deal so you could well be right that the deal is grinding to a halt.

Good news is that MET is a good share to hold, but bad news is obviously that sp will probably retrace down short term.

[winner69]

But as a general rule, a good deal is a fast deal so you could well be right that the deal is grinding to a halt.

Good news is that MET is a good share to hold, but bad news is obviously that sp will probably retrace down short term.

I agree as they say a good deal is a fast deal ...and we are lead to believe that this was a ‘credible’ offer.

You’d think the big boys would want the guts of the deal out of the way soon and tell us ....and let the minions work over the break doing the donkey work and putting together the screeds of documents needed

[Beagle]

While we wait I will add my 2 cents on the appointment of Jarden and costs involved.

No way this would have been referred to Jarden's investment banking team if there wasn't a good chance the deal could be done.
Under the takeovers code I would think the costs of Jarden's appointment would have to be met by the interested credible bidder and the costs (given this has been worked on by working groups, plural, would be quite significant).

Jarden without question the right team to work on this and are widely regarded by institutional investors as the best deal makers in the business.

I would think its likely the potential acquirer would want to do thorough due diligence on weathertightness so that's a real chance on what is delaying this.

I would expect some impatient punters might spit the dummy if this deal isn't done by Christmas, I won't be one of them as I believe at around the current price of $6 there is compelling value in the stock regardless of the outcome. I have bought the right amount so I am happy to invest long term regardless of the outcome.

[Ggcc]

While we wait I will add my 2 cents on the appointment of Jarden and costs involved.

No way this would have been referred to Jarden's investment banking team if there wasn't a good chance the deal could be done.
Under the takeovers code I would think the costs of Jarden's appointment would have to be met by the interested credible bidder and the costs (given this has been worked on by working groups, plural, would be quite significant).

Jarden without question the right team to work on this and are widely regarded by institutional investors as the best deal makers in the business.

I would think its likely the potential acquirer would want to do thorough due diligence on weathertightness so that's a real chance on what is delaying this.

I would expect some impatient punters might spit the dummy if this deal isn't done by Christmas, I won't be one of them as I believe at around the current price of $6 there is compelling value in the stock regardless of the outcome. I have bought the right amount so I am happy to invest long term regardless of the outcome.
Could BUPA be the purchaser? Just a thought.

[Balance]

I agree as they say a good deal is a fast deal ...and we are lead to believe that this was a ‘credible’ offer.

You’d think the big boys would want the guts of the deal out of the way soon and tell us ....and let the minions work over the break doing the donkey work and putting together the screeds of documents needed

MET is not a Mickey Mouse company (market cap of over $1 billion with a credible board) so I would say the offer is definitely a credible one - means party is credible and indicative offer (price) is acceptable for directors to allow due diligence & negotiations to take place.

Possibility exists that the board may be asking too much beyond NAV.

[mfd]

Possibility exists that the board may be asking too much beyond NAV.

Even holding out for NAV may be asking too much - presumably if a deal at NAV was likely the SP wouldn't be sitting 14% lower right now. Maybe the whole point was to strike while the price was weak and get a nice discount to asset value

[Beagle]

MET is not a Mickey Mouse company (market cap of over $1 billion with a credible board) so I would say the offer is definitely a credible one - means party is credible and indicative offer (price) is acceptable for directors to allow due diligence & negotiations to take place.

Possibility exists that the board may be asking too much beyond NAV.

I think that's likely to be bang on the money. I did hear a whisper from someone who works for Jarden that the deal has to start with a "7" which is what I have been saying all along. I don't think eight dollars something is justifiable and likewise, six dollars something isn't enough.

I remain of the view the longer this goes on, the more likely a deal will happen.

The only deal I have been involved with as a Trustee involving tens of millions took 6 weeks to negotiate. This obviously involves a lot more money than that one.
The main purpose of this post is to encourage people to be patient.

[Joshuatree]

This is dream situ for traders.Theyve had plenty of time to load up and now feed them into the mkt making a quick good profit at no risk.

[couta1]

This is dream situ for traders.Theyve had plenty of time to load up and now feed them into the mkt making a quick good profit at no risk. Only if you bought below $5.80 otherwise the takeover upside potential far outways any current trading potential, I wouldn't trade it now.

[Joshuatree]

Easy no risk gains for traders it has been though. Potential involves risk. Good luck to all.

[winner69]

...

I did hear a whisper from someone who works for Jarden that the deal has to start with a "7" which is what I have been saying all along.........
.

Bit naughty of that Jarden’s someone

[Snow Leopard]

Of course, if the deal has to start with a 7 then it may well not happen at all.

[Balance]

Bit naughty of that Jarden’s someone

Absolutely no no these days. Career terminating.

[macduffy]

Could BUPA be the purchaser? Just a thought.

Could well be - the potential list is long. In over 50 years' investing I've lost count of the number of times I've held shares in the target. It's not unusual for these matters to take longer than expected, although Christmas does add an extra touch of urgency. Patience, holders!

:cool:

[Benny1]

So just read on facebook NBR post (I don't have a subscription to NBR) that MET will update the market on Friday.
Believed to be a private equity buyer...
So wave bye to another NZX listing??

[Beagle]

Interesting...thanks for sharing.

[Balance]

So just read on facebook NBR post (I don't have a subscription to NBR) that MET will update the market on Friday.
Believed to be a private equity buyer...
So wave bye to another NZX listing??

Hmmmm - be there or be square?

Share price up 50c tomorrow?

[King1212]

A firm offer has been submitted!.....good news...

[Beagle]

"Retirement village operator Metlifecare is expected to update the market on Friday about a proposed takeover offer.
Private equity buyer understood to have submitted a firm offer".

NBR Facebook post posted 2 hours ago.

This is going to be interesting. They've certainly well and truly "kicked the tyres" on this company so let the games begin.

[pierre]

"Retirement village operator Metlifecare is expected to update the market on Friday about a proposed takeover offer.
Private equity buyer understood to have submitted a firm offer".

NBR Facebook post posted 2 hours ago.

This is going to be interesting. They've certainly well and truly "kicked the tyres" on this company so let the games begin.

I think the most interesting comment in today's NBR story is this:
"Ellis said the board was likely to provide a further update by Friday 'but I wouldn't hold your breath on what it's going to say.' "

Read into that what you will but it doesn't sound overly positive to me.

[King1212]

Was..... likely....now done deal. Trading halt tomorrow...

[Beagle]

I think the most interesting comment in today's NBR story is this:
"Ellis said the board was likely to provide a further update by Friday 'but I wouldn't hold your breath on what it's going to say.' "

Read into that what you will but it doesn't sound overly positive to me.

Usual gamesmanship. Board will think the company is worth considerably more than NTA because of its growth potential. Private Equity will want it as cheap as possible.
Its time for the board to front up with what's going on. They really should do that tomorrow and let shareholders decide for themselves what they want to do.

[Balance]

Usual gamesmanship. Board will think the company is worth considerably more than NTA because of its growth potential. Private Equity will want it as cheap as possible.
Its time for the board to front up with what's going on. They really should do that tomorrow and let shareholders decide for themselves what they want to do.

Yup - as long as the bidder is prepared to put in a firm offer, the board may disagree with the bid but still has to present to shareholders who can decide for themselves.

[winner69]

Mighty glad it’s not Summerset playing silly buggers ...huge sigh of relief

[kiora]

Could well be - the potential list is long. In over 50 years' investing I've lost count of the number of times I've held shares in the target. It's not unusual for these matters to take longer than expected, although Christmas does add an extra touch of urgency. Patience, holders!

:cool:

Core blymy ,50 yrs MacD.I've got a few yrs to catch up:).I've got 40 years under my belt.I wonder which ST has been investing the longest?

[winner69]

About 2 years ago Infratil sold their 20% share in MET - NZ Superfund retained their 20%

The share price at the time was $6.07

Been a bit dud investment for them over 2 years when the markets have been going gangbusters - lost opportunities big sum

Wonder what they thinking of doing now? Maybe even influencing in the background?

[pierre]

Core blymy ,50 yrs MacD.I've got a few yrs to catch up:).I've got 40 years under my belt.I wonder which ST has been investing the longest?

I made my first investment in 1962 or 1963. 100 shares in Mt Isa Mines (fore runner to BHP). Paid 26 shillings each and 6 weeks later they were at 42 shillings. The miners were on strike when I bought and the SP shot up when they returned.
Never forgotten this - I was so elated at the time and it was a great start to my investing career that's been on and off for about 57 years.

[Balance]

About 2 years ago Infratil sold their 20% share in MET - NZ Superfund retained their 20%

The share price at the time was $6.07

Been a bit dud investment for them over 2 years when the markets have been going gangbusters - lost opportunities big sum

Wonder what they thinking of doing now? Maybe even influencing in the background?

Top 3 'active' shareholders being NZ Super, ACC and ISG Ltd own 32% so it is inconceivable that the Board & bidder do not interact with them.

Means that they are bound by confidentiality and cannot trade any shares until such time as the deal is confirmed on or off.

Add on ANZ Bank various investment funds' 11.8% and the top 4 shareholders will deliver control if they like the price offered by the bidder.

[Scrunch]

Top 3 'active' shareholders being NZ Super, ACC and ISG Ltd own 32% so it is inconceivable that the Board & bidder do not interact with them.

Means that they are bound by confidentiality and cannot trade any shares until such time as the deal is confirmed on or off.

Add on ANZ Bank various investment funds' 11.8% and the top 4 shareholders will deliver control if they like the price offered by the bidder.

I wouldn't be surprised if they has signed conditional sale agreements with one or several big shareholders . It would help explain the longer elapsed time with no announcements.

[winner69]

Top 3 'active' shareholders being NZ Super, ACC and ISG Ltd own 32% so it is inconceivable that the Board & bidder do not interact with them.

Means that they are bound by confidentiality and cannot trade any shares until such time as the deal is confirmed on or off.

Add on ANZ Bank various investment funds' 11.8% and the top 4 shareholders will deliver control if they like the price offered by the bidder.

....so me, Couts, beagle et al won’t be the ones who decide :p:scared::cool::(:):cool::t_down::D:mellow:

We just spectators eh ...hoping for a successful punt

[Beagle]

Top 3 'active' shareholders being NZ Super, ACC and ISG Ltd own 32% so it is inconceivable that the Board & bidder do not interact with them.

Means that they are bound by confidentiality and cannot trade any shares until such time as the deal is confirmed on or off.

Add on ANZ Bank various investment funds' 11.8% and the top 4 shareholders will deliver control if they like the price offered by the bidder.

Thanks for the info Balance. Under the takeovers code as I am sure most will know already, if they bid for more than 20% they have to bid for the lot. I estimate NTA as at 31 December 2019 to be about 2-4% above the $6.96 figure as at 30 June 2019.
The $64,000 question for shareholders to ponder is have management done enough over the last 2-3 years to justify a bid above NTA ?
If you're tempted to answer no like I am then consider whether the Auckland market is what's been holding them back and now that the tide appears to be coming in again with regard to Auckland property, whether a premium is justified based on how well the management have done in a falling Auckland market in the last 2-3 years.

These are difficult questions but I can't help but refer back to my 5 year analysis which showed average growth in underlying profit across 2 stages of the property cycle of 15% per annum, better than RYM's underlying profit growth over the same period.

For me, RYM is the benchmark and given MET's heavy concentration of property in Auckland and the Bay of Plenty, compared to RYM's much greater geographical spread I think on any rational and objective analysis MET's management have beaten RYM which is the benchmark so must be considered to have done well.

With the outlook for Auckland property now looking brighter and MET morphing its business model to move more towards a more comprehensive care model, I don't think any bid at a discount to NTA is warranted.

OCA in the sector is now trading at a premium to last recorded NTA of just over 16%, (does not have the 5 year established track record of underlying profit growth) and the rest as everyone knows are trading at much greater premiums to NTA.

It must be at least at NTA as at 31 December 2019, so about $7.20 as an absolute minimum.

[winner69]

Thanks for the info Balance. Under the takeovers code as I am sure most will know already, if they bid for more than 20% they have to bid for the lot. I estimate NTA as at 31 December 2019 to be about 2-4% above the $6.96 figure as at 30 June 2019.
The $64,000 question for shareholders to ponder is have management done enough over the last 2-3 years to justify a bid above NTA ?

The answer to the $6.40 question is obviously NO

I think you have answered that question many times over the last month or so

[Beagle]

For a second there I thought the bid had been announced at $6.40 lol, The barking would be fierce lol
They've done enough so no discount to NTA could be considered as being fair and reasonable.

[Balance]

Thanks for the info Balance. Under the takeovers code as I am sure most will know already, if they bid for more than 20% they have to bid for the lot. I estimate NTA as at 31 December 2019 to be about 2-4% above the $6.96 figure as at 30 June 2019.
The $64,000 question for shareholders to ponder is have management done enough over the last 2-3 years to justify a bid above NTA ?
It must be at least at NTA as at 31 December 2019, so about $7.20 as an absolute minimum.

If it is indeed a private equity bidder, then they are not buying MET for what it is and certainly, they will be bringing in their own management team while retaining some of the existing team if appropriate.

And knowing private equity modus operandi, it will be a case of using MET to facilitate more investments in the sector with the view to resisting it or selling it in future.

So I think that management of MET will be resisting this takeover while Chairman Ellis with his 250,000 shares will be wanting a high price.

[winner69]

For a second there I thought the bid had been announced at $6.40 lol, The barking would be fierce lol
They've done enough so no discount to NTA could be considered as being fair and reasonable.

If they have done enough to deserve that praise why has the share price languished in the $5's

Let's hope somebody thinks it's worth a punt at 7 bucks plus

[Beagle]

Sentiment against Auckland property has been quite sour up until quite recently but the worm has definitely turned so its onwards and upwards from here regardless of what happens with this possible takeover :t_up: :t_up: Important to note that before sentiment turned sour against Auckland property the MET shares were in a nice uptrend and the price was $6.50 and that's without any takeover premium ! 10905 (Note the price in October 2018 !)

[couta1]

It's not a long term hold for me so I'll take any reasonable offer and be thankful.

[Balance]

It's not a long term hold for me so I'll take any reasonable offer and be thankful.

And get excited - the backdoor boys are going to make PIL a retirement village operator!

Hoo hoo! GET IN THERE!

[winner69]

It's not a long term hold for me so I'll take any reasonable offer and be thankful.

Same with me

Even if sale doesn't happen MET hasn't got enough 'love' to ever make it attractive ...... even though its seducing some by its hidden beauty

[winner69]

That rumour NBR spread yesterday hasn't done much to price today

GOTTA BUY MORE MET is a better ramp

[Balance]

That rumour NBR spread yesterday hasn't done much to price today

GOTTA BUY MORE MET is a better ramp

Looks highly suspicious that it's a plant by someone trying to get out?

[Beagle]

Same with me

Even if sale doesn't happen MET hasn't got enough 'love' to ever make it attractive ...... even though its seducing some by its hidden beauty

"I can't help but refer back to my 5 year analysis which showed average growth in underlying profit across 2 stages of the property cycle of 15% per annum, better than RYM's underlying profit growth over the same period". The facts and numbers suggest their track record is actually very good. Maybe its a much overlooked diamond in the rough ? House price growth expectations looking very positive going forward. https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1912/S00381/positive-surge-in-house-price-expectations.htm

[peat]

its spilled
$6.50 offer rejected

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/346335
Offer could easily be revised and / or one or both of the other interested parties could table an offer.
Holding.

[peetter]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/346335

[Joshuatree]

Update on Takeover (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/346335)After careful consideration, the Metlifecare Board has formed a view that the value per share of the company is above the price of the revised NBIO. The valuation of the company is particularly sensitive to house price inflation (HPI) and construction cost inflation. Depending on the assumptions adopted, the valuation ranges to in excess of $8.00 per share.Following confidential institutional soundings, a binding offer at $6.50 per share is unlikely to be supported by the requisite majority of shareholders voting. In particular, the Accident Compensation Corporation, Nikko Asset Management, and Generate have advised they would vote against such an offer.

[Joshuatree]

S/P heading up atp. $6.50 new floor?

[couta1]

Probably dead in the water, no way anyone's going to pay $8 plus for this, they are kidding themselves.

[dabsman]

I like the $8 valuation comment...

[Beagle]

Probably dead in the water, no way anyone's going to pay $8 plus for this, they are kidding themselves.

You should read it again. Up to $8 depending on house price inflation and building cost inflation assumptions. There's always a range to the value of a business depending upon valuation modelling.

I am interested that there are 2 other parties interested. JT could have a point and $6.50 could be the new floor given this company is still in play, (initial rejection of the first initial offer by one of the parties given there are three interested is by no means the end of this).

[carrom74]

MET should restart the buy back... could improve the SP!

[couta1]

You should read it again. Up to $8 depending on house price inflation and building cost inflation assumptions. There's always a range to the value of a business depending upon valuation modelling.

I am interested that there are 2 other parties interested. JT could have a point and $6.50 could be the new floor given this company is still in play, (initial rejection of the first initial offer by one of the parties given there are three interested is by no means the end of this). Nope it says ranges to in excess of $8.

[trader_jackson]

sounds like another STU here... offer gets put in there, board comes back and trumpets how great they are and wants more based on various (lofty?) assumptions, offer goes away and share price collapses back to pre-take over notice. (as for the two other parties, they were probably only willing to offer $5, maybe $6 tops)

Will be intriguing to see how things pan out... $6.50 and $8+ is quite a large difference I would think.

[couta1]

Hey winner what you going to do? wait or cash up for Christmas, think I'll toss a coin.

[Beagle]

Nope it says ranges to in excess of $8.

Okay, yes, the valuation range extends to $8+. This does not mean an offer at say estimated NTA as at 31/12/19 of $7.25 would be rejected. I think its well worth noting that the board told the credible interested buyer that $6.50 was below its view of fair value (indicated that it would not be supported), but the party went ahead with expensive due diligence anyway. Join the dots, I think its very unlikely their first offer will be their last especially now its clear there are two other interested parties.

"Metlifecare has recently communicated these circumstances to the third party. Although it is possible that the third party might put forward a further revised proposal, there can be no assurance that any such offer will be made or that an offer may emerge from the other parties that have expressed interest"

There are multiple parties interested in a takeover. Blind Freddy could tell you the stock is "in play".

If ACC and other institutions are not taking $6.50 then neither am I.

[bohemian]

I've got a bucket load of these on margin, I'd be happy to see a bit more price but wouldn't want to lose this one. Watching very carefully.

[Joshuatree]

High as $6.15, holding $6.10 atm.Be plenty taking their profits atm.Congrats.

[BlackPeter]

sounds like another STU here... offer gets put in there, board comes back and trumpets how great they are and wants more based on various (lofty?) assumptions, offer goes away and share price collapses back to pre-take over notice. (as for the two other parties, they were probably only willing to offer $5, maybe $6 tops)

Will be intriguing to see how things pan out... $6.50 and $8+ is quite a large difference I would think.

Well, so far it looks like SP keeps rising ... which means Mr. Market agrees they are currently too cheap.

[Beagle]

Closed at $6.12 up 12 cents. Its going to be fascinating how this plays out. I'm up for this and committed to hold while its well under fair value which I assess at $7.25

I have no need for extra cash for Christmas but completely understand if others do or want to take a quick profit.

[Scrunch]

Okay, yes, the valuation range extends to $8+. This does not mean an offer at say estimated NTA as at 31/12/19 of $7.25 would be rejected. I think its well worth noting that the board told the credible interested buyer that $6.50 was below its view of fair value (indicated that it would not be supported)..

And where is the 50/50 split the difference point between $8.00 and $6.50? $7.25 spooky eh

[trader_jackson]

Well, so far it looks like SP keeps rising ... which means Mr. Market agrees they are currently too cheap.

Mr Market only agrees they are too cheap because there is a prospect of a takeover, which Mr Market deems, at this point in time, would go ahead.
If there is no prospect of quick easy money, I highly doubt we would see the share price anywhere near this high... hence it will be intriguing to see what eventuates.

[winner69]

So MET and their expert advisors update their models (presumably DCF models) and come up with $8 plus as a value

We know what some on here think of DCF’s - pretty meaningless and just a heck of a lot of guesses (sorry assumptions) about where things are going well into the future and then apply a discount rate to get the answer you want

Wonder what their “low” scenario is?

[winner69]

And where is the 50/50 split the difference point between $8.00 and $6.50? $7.25 spooky eh

That is definitely spooky possums stuff

Possums and Beagles get same answer

[winner69]

Announcement a bit like Labour release of harassment claims yesterday

Wait until the journos are at a party and hope nobody notices

Probably many broker / analysts / fundies have gone for the year (got to beat the traffic jams and the disruptions to AIR flights) and having a few drinks to reflect on the year just gone

[macduffy]

I'm with Beagle on this one. The offer has thrown MET into play and others are, or will be interested now. Admittedly, it's easier to be patient if one doesn't need the money in a hurry.

[winner69]

Hey winner what you going to do? wait or cash up for Christmas, think I'll toss a coin.

Hi Couts, I was 10 cents out this morning, need to check my hearing

Not the greatest update was it ....any action if any some time off I reckon

Hope a bit of enthusiasm tomorrow ...like you might toss a coin then

[winner69]

I'm with Beagle on this one. The offer has thrown MET into play and others are, or will be interested now. Admittedly, it's easier to be patient if one doesn't need the money in a hurry.

Maybe it’s been in play for a while and $6.50 is the best they’ve managed to get ...so far

Note NZ Super Fund not mentioned in the announcement ...hmmm

[Beagle]

1090610906

My friend Crackity sent me this.

[Beagle]

That is definitely spooky possums stuff

Possums and Beagles get same answer

Keeping my snout close to the ground. My nose tells me there's another ~ $1 feed per share coming for the patient puppies compared to today's closing price.
I'm overweight already and definitely don't need another feed right at the moment :lol:

[Joshuatree]

1090610906

My friend Crackity sent me this.

Dog a deer:eek2: ,a big male deer, crack, a ray of golden sun
beagle a name i call myself
So, its time to put aside and have whole alot of fun.

Thanks leonard cohen "there is a crack in everything......thats where the light gets in.

[BlackPeter]

Keeping my snout close to the ground. My nose tells me there's another ~ $1 feed per share coming for the patient puppies compared to today's closing price.
I'm overweight already and definitely don't need another feed right at the moment :lol:

I can't comment on your weight :) but agree that a better offer is quite likely to come. I guess - seriously - who in his/her right mind would make their first offer as well the last and best? And the fact that there are several interested parties makes the whole thing much more interesting.

Holding a medium sized parcel myself and quite relaxed at the current share price. No need to rush to the sell button.

[Beagle]

I guess - seriously - who in his/her right mind would make the first offer as well the last and best?
Agree 100%
They tell the board the NBIO is $6.50. Board tells them its not enough but agrees to allow due diligence. They do a whole month of thorough due diligence anyway spending all that time on it and knowing all that time that $6.50 is unlikely to be enough and knowing that under the takeovers code they're up for MET's professional costs including legal and Jarden. They then bid $6.50 and the board sounds out major shareholders who also say its not enough.
In the meantime two other parties express serious interest. Honestly, I would speculate its highly likely there is a better offer forthcoming in due course. Probably negotiations are happening with major shareholders at present and may conclude over the weekend.
Increased offer next week ?
At the grave risk of being dogmatic, Its got to start with a "7".

[Scrunch]

Okay, yes, the valuation range extends to $8+.

Its interesting, but not in a good way that the valuation boffin's can only get to 10% above NTA (assuming NTA is now $7.25). Most comparator companies (RYM, SUM, ADV) are over 40% above NTA and even OCA had a trade today at 20% over NTA. MET management need to have a good look at what everyone else is doing differently &/or better. A small clue would be their new build rate. Till they do that and make some changes, a bid at NTA would probably change the management team running MET.

If there was a good reason that these other companies multiples to NTA were to become applicable to MET, the valuation models should be able to kick out a $10+ valuation and that doesn't require using RYM at the comparator.

[Balance]

Closed at $6.12 up 12 cents. Its going to be fascinating how this plays out. I'm up for this and committed to hold while its well under fair value which I assess at $7.25

I have no need for extra cash for Christmas but completely understand if others do or want to take a quick profit.

First bid is never the last bid.

Opening shot imo.

$8+ valuation is too high a mountain for the bidder to climb so expect a compromise bid to emerge.

10% more to the offer price of $6.50 plus payment of special dividend will get the deal done.

[Beagle]

Its interesting, but not in a good way that the valuation boffin's can only get to 10% above NTA (assuming NTA is now $7.25). Most comparator companies (RYM, SUM, ADV) are over 40% above NTA and even OCA had a trade today at 20% over NTA. MET management need to have a good look at what everyone else is doing differently &/or better. A small clue would be their new build rate. Till they do that and make some changes, a bid at NTA would probably change the management team running MET.

If there was a good reason that these other companies multiples to NTA were to become applicable to MET, the valuation models should be able to kick out a $10+ valuation and that doesn't require using RYM at the comparator.

Agreed and therein lies the value to the acquirer.

[Beagle]

First bid is never the last bid.

Opening shot imo.

$8+ valuation is too high a mountain for the bidder to climb so expect a compromise bid to emerge.

10% more to the offer price of $6.50 plus payment of special dividend will get the deal done.

Bang on the money mate. With two other interested parties nipping at their heels, the bidder will want to wrap up negotiations with major shareholders over the weekend and present this as effectively a done deal next week, in my opinion.

$7.25 is where I called it many pages ago. Allows everyone to save face, (small premium to 30 June 2019 NTA), and leaves plenty of meat on the bone for the bidder.

[Cadalac123]

Extremely tempting to short-term trade this, but I feel like the burn from the deal not going through will be extremely painful given the leg-up in shareprice already lol

[macduffy]

Extremely tempting to short-term trade this, but I feel like the burn from the deal not going through will be extremely painful given the leg-up in shareprice already lol

I'm working on the premise that the bid has disclosed the extent to which MET was being under-valued by the market. Some retracement is possible but interest has been kindled and the fire has now been lit!

[winner69]

Hope there be some speculative buying today and pushing price up to $6.40 odd ...or will the market see the announcement as a big negative.

Even that’s cheap as - I hear it’s worth at least $8

[couta1]

Hope there be some speculative buying today and pushing price up to $6.40 odd ...or will the market see the announcement as a big negative.

Even that’s cheap as - I hear it’s worth at least $8 We might as well stay on the bus a bit longer winner and hope we don't get a flat tyre.

[King1212]

Wow $8....where u heard it from? Naughty Jarden's someone. Absolutely no no these days....end of career...lol

[King1212]

Another dollar will only make Met....$1.5b market cap...I think we will get another higher offer....

[winner69]

Wow $8....where u heard it from? Naughty Jarden's someone. Absolutely no no these days....end of career...lol

....no no - Mr Ellis said so yesterday when he said $6.50 wasn’t enough.

[King1212]

I know Winner. . just joking 😄

[winner69]

We might as well stay on the bus a bit longer winner and hope we don't get a flat tyre.

Agree - while punters are excited with talk of three bidders and this 8 bucks where can you go wrong.

[winner69]

I know Winner. . just joking ��

I know king - but don’t ask where I got the $6.40 I mentioned yesterday morning from (need to clean my ears I reckon)

[winner69]

For a second there I thought the bid had been announced at $6.40 lol, The barking would be fierce lol
They've done enough so no discount to NTA could be considered as being fair and reasonable.

So the answer to you question still has to be NO ...they (Met Board) haven’t done enough to get the market to recognise what MET might be worth.

Well respected Board but I think they’ve been a bit slack in this respect (been running the company operationally OKish rather than raising the profile of the company if you get what I mean)

And now we have to put our faith in thevsame Board to actually get a good price for us

[Beagle]

So the answer to you question still has to be NO ...they (Met Board) haven’t done enough to get the market to recognise what MET might be worth.

Well respected Board but I think they’ve been a bit slack in this respect (been running the company operationally OKish rather than raising the profile of the company if you get what I mean)

And now we have to put our faith in thevsame Board to actually get a good price for us

I think they could have been more proactive with the buy-back. I've said it before, buying back the companies own shares in the mid-late $4's was a complete no brainer at such a deep discount to NTA.
Maximum in any one year as I understand it is 5% so that would have been 5% x 213m shares = 10.65m shares at say an average of $5 = $53m allocated. They allocated just $30m to this process despite having a ~ $900m development pipeline over the next 3 years so yes I would agree a more proactive stance should have been taken and it shouldn't have taken shareholder activism to get them to do this.

3 Parties interested. I am quite confident someone is going to pay at least the net tangible asset backing of just over $7 (estimated at 31 December 2019).
Patience is all that's required here from shareholders. Remember the market is often a place that shifts value from the impatient, to the patient :)

[Mudfish]

I'm not a super clever investor like many, however, other than a quick sale and easy buck, have trouble finding a down side to yesterday's announcement. At the moment, SP is $1-2 undervalued. Plenty of smart heads supporting this and the fact 6.50 was rejected also supports. PE also very favourable. Today will be very interesting. Simple thinking tells me, it's a screaming buy opportunity. This will go against those who are disappointed in lack of quick buck so exit. So SP could go either way in the very very short term but not far away I expect good things. This could come from many corners. I'm holding all mine. Thanks to all for your insights too, I enjoys all the great info shared.

[couta1]

Sellers drying up shes off to the races.

[winner69]

Sellers drying up shes off to the races.

I love going to the races Couts.

[winner69]

Sellers drying up shes off to the races.

Talking of going to the races FEARLESS in the 3.12 at Otaki today is the big tip.

[Beagle]

More fun on here than at the races.

[Beagle]

In an interesting development this morning one million shares have just crossed at $6.15.

[Cadalac123]

Tempt to punt is growing daily especially with volumes today.. possible 8$ valuation. But jesus will it be painful if it doesn't go through haha

[macduffy]

Tempt to punt is growing daily especially with volumes today.. possible 8$ valuation. But jesus will it be painful if it doesn't go through haha

Short term pain, perhaps, but MET value is now being recognised and the shares will be priced more realistically in future.

[NOCASH]

Only the weak minded hands will sell now? i'm tempted to sell or should I hold out and wait for the revised NIBO offer at $6.70 - $6.80?

[Cadalac123]

I think i'm going to sit this one out, I feel like my decision to enter would be greed fueled rather than a fundamental decision. I do envy holders who bought in prior to the take-over talk. But on reflection I never researched this sector and therefore can't say I really earnt any of the winnings.

Should the deal not go through I probably will enter if it falls right back down with the hope of future renegotiation

[couta1]

Only the weak minded hands will sell now? i'm tempted to sell or should I hold out and wait for the revised NIBO offer at $6.70 - $6.80? Sit it out and go and have a listen to that classic Little River Band song "Help is on it's way"

[Cadalac123]

https://stocknessmonster.com/trades/met.nzx/

According to this the large volume was a sell-off... anyone know how accurate this website is?

[Chanchay]

https://stocknessmonster.com/trades/met.nzx/

According to this the large volume was a sell-off... anyone know how accurate this website is?

All trades have a buyer and a seller unless I'm missing something?

[BlackPeter]

https://stocknessmonster.com/trades/met.nzx/

According to this the large volume was a sell-off... anyone know how accurate this website is?

Any trade is a sell off by a willing seller and a buy in by a willing buyer. It is nonsensical to consider only one side of the trade, because then it would not be a deal.

The red bar only indicates that the agreed price was below the previous trade (clearly a volume discount) ... and yes, they got that right.

[Cadalac123]

That makes more sense, I only found out about the website recently and didn't realise the negative just meant lower price than before ..opps haha

[winner69]

That makes more sense, I only found out about the website recently and didn't realise the negative just meant lower price than before ..opps haha

Cadillac - don’t forget to put heaps on FEARLESS in the 3.12 at Otaki races today

Stockness won’t be showing the result though

[winner69]

Not exactly a big rush to buy MET today is there

Becoming a nonevent?

[Mudfish]

Not a rush to sell either. I guess it's now the good old game of patience once again. Hopefully, not too long with this one.

[Beagle]

Not exactly a big rush to buy MET today is there

Becoming a nonevent?

https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=patience+grasshopper&id=6E53BAF385239223695B0AB5AF4B4B4DBDAE2771&FORM=IQFRBA

[winner69]

The tip for Fearless originated from Jardens ...and it ran nowhere ....got to pick your advisors better I reckon