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Lego_Man
22-05-2009, 02:18 PM
- NZ's largest operator of retirement villages.
- Current market cap ~235 million.
- Primary assets are their retirement village units, valued by DCF of their expected generated revenue stream over a 40 year time horizon.
- Recently completed capital raising to strengthen balance sheet.
- Operating earnings have remained solid to end of 1H09 (31 Dec 08)
- Recent losses due to a revaluation of investment property reflected in their income statements.
- I believe divvies have been suspended until 2010.

This stock is currently trading at about 0.4x NTA* (approximately $2).

Could be worth a punt if you expect the housing market to turn around strongly. The ageing population should assure that demand keeps up for their units in the medium-long term. You may also simply believe that the undervaluation will be corrected with a change in market sentiment.

Not really much point getting into technicals as it's a very thinly traded stock. I might post a price chart later though.

* Source ASB Securities

Mr Tommy
22-05-2009, 03:58 PM
My parents private village got bought by these guys a year or so ago. Since then theyve put up prices, slashed services etc. The result is miserable "customers" and staff, and they now have about a dozen houses empty for the first time.
So yes the ageing population may be growing, but the smart oldies wont be moving to metlifecare.

Snow Leopard
22-05-2009, 04:07 PM
I used to have shares in this once but sold up in May 2007, I remember it took days to find a buyer then.
Since then I have not given it a thought, it only trades on alternate Thursdays and my current screening process drops it.

Find it hard to believe you can buy in for two bucks a pop but I would not touch it now. Apart from the lack of trades, I am not keen on the management.

regards
Paper Tiger

PS You could have a look at Ryman

Lego_Man
26-05-2009, 02:41 PM
Thanks for the input...still think it might be a bit underdone.

Will have a look at Ryman as well.

Any opinions on them?

Serpie
26-05-2009, 05:00 PM
Operationally Ryman are miles ahead of Metlifecare.

And no - I dont work for Ryman, but have knowledge of both at a corporate level.

Felix
07-10-2011, 10:38 PM
There hasn't been much discussion about this company for a couple of years. I suspect it's because there are so few shareholders.

I'm unsure why they made their announcement today about undertaking a strategic review of their capital and ownership structure. In terms of the ownership structure, I don't see how they can influence this. If the 85% shareholder wanted to takeover MET then they would have done so by now and I can't see how MET could influence this.

They want to improve the capital structure and share trading liquidity to capitalise on future growth opportunities. I suspect this is signalling a capital raising of some description although I don't see how this will increase share trading liquidity because you will still have roughly the same number of shareholders, just more shares held by each shareholder. That is, unless they are able to somehow introduce new shareholders through the main shareholder diluting their holding.

We'll see in a fortnight I guess.

CJ
08-10-2011, 08:48 AM
I wonder if it was signalling a potential sell down much like the Somerset one. Drop the mian SH down to 50% will increase liquidity.

Felix
09-10-2011, 09:45 PM
Yes good point CJ. Having thought about potential motivations I can only come up with the same answer. It would make sense given that most of the directors are linked to the main shareholder, so I suppose it may have been those directors that initiated the strategic review.

It seems an unfortunate time to sell down their holding. It looks like they picked up most of their shareholding in 2003 at $3.90 per share, although they did pick up more shares at $1.08 during the capital raising in early 2009. Given they would probably need to offer the shares at a discount to current market price they appear to have done pretty badly out of their investment. I bet they wish they had put their money behind Ryman instead.

_Michael
26-10-2011, 12:53 PM
Yes good point CJ. Having thought about potential motivations I can only come up with the same answer. It would make sense given that most of the directors are linked to the main shareholder, so I suppose it may have been those directors that initiated the strategic review.

It seems an unfortunate time to sell down their holding. It looks like they picked up most of their shareholding in 2003 at $3.90 per share, although they did pick up more shares at $1.08 during the capital raising in early 2009. Given they would probably need to offer the shares at a discount to current market price they appear to have done pretty badly out of their investment. I bet they wish they had put their money behind Ryman instead.

This is very odd. Surely trading at 50% of net tangible property assets cannot go on forever??!!

Who are NZ Retirement Villages? Why would they be content with management and directors that deliver destruction of shareholder value while praising themselves for their "excellent performance against a challenging back drop"

!! ??

Meanwhile Ryman trades at 200% net tangible property assets and humbly credits their performance due to good service and consistent and simple operating model.

Will be interesting to wee outcome of the strategic review. Hopefully some improvement in liquidity and possibly some value will start to be realised....

:confused:

_Michael
27-10-2011, 07:01 AM
Timely. Good way to invest in property when you can get it at 50% below market value!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10761913

Sauce
29-10-2011, 01:46 PM
This is very odd. Surely trading at 50% of net tangible property assets cannot go on forever??!!

!! ??

Meanwhile Ryman trades at 200% net tangible property assets and humbly credits their performance due to good service and consistent and simple operating model.

Will be interesting to wee outcome of the strategic review. Hopefully some improvement in liquidity and possibly some value will start to be realised....

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/smilies/confused1.gif


Hi Michael,

I'd be very careful with this one

You have to consider the relative economics. Metlifecare's assets have been creating significant losses for shareholders, therefore the market is discounting them. This is the correct response from the market. The "valuations" mean a whole heap of nothing unless Metlifecare decides to sell their villages, and in that case they would still need someone in the market for an entire village to stump up that amount, or the valuation still means nothing. So basically, the NTA valuation you mention is information that is not as useful as it seems.

If I had a bank account with $1,000,000 cash balance (that could never be withdrawn) that was losing -5% a year, and I told you I had a registered valuation on the bank account identical to its NTA of $1,000,000 but I would kindly sell it to you at a 50% discount (i.e. $500,000). Would you jump at the opportunity? I think you would have to be pretty damn sure that bank account would return to +5% or more in a hell of a hurry before you got interested in buying my bank account at this "discounted" price.

RYMAN on the other hand makes an economic return of about 30% on all the money it retains in the business. That's a formidable return and one that Mr Market will quite rightly pay a premium for. If I told you I had a bank account with $1,000,000 in it returning $300,000 a year compounding annually, what would you pay me for THAT bank account? I suspect you might part with a fair bit more than $1,000,000? Well so would the general market - hence the price offered for RYM shares.

Of course MET might turn its profitability around, in which case the current price might turn out to be a bargain. But there is a very good reason why MET is in the current situation its in. And that's because the business has performed very poorly. The opposite is true of RYM.

I think the time to get excited about a discount to net tangible assets is only when you have an insight into the business and its odds of achieving sound future economics i.e. profits and high, or at least adequate, returns on invested capital.

Cheers

Sauce

percy
29-10-2011, 02:59 PM
Sauce,
thank you for your posts on MET and Summerset threads.Always well thought out and informative.

Sauce
29-10-2011, 10:40 PM
Sauce,
thank you for your posts on MET and Summerset threads.Always well thought out and informative.

Thanks Percy,
Your posts are always on the money so to speak :)
Cheers
Sauce

Snow Leopard
07-05-2012, 10:53 AM
Proposed merger (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MET&E=NZSE&N=222595) between Metlifecare, Vision Senior Living and Private Life Care to make a bigger listed company.

Also read the Herald (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10804041) article

best wishes
paper Tiger

Zaphod
07-05-2012, 02:38 PM
Will being bigger make MetLifeCare a better company?

Or is it simply going to grow the company's problems? I'm not sure marketshare alone will give MetLifeCare the fillip it needs to prosper.

I struggle to see why Metlife is an attractive proposition when Ryman is a proven, growing company with a great formula. Arguably Ryman is one of NZ's best run companies. Summerset looks like Ryman Jr, so is probably the second best option here.

MetLifeCare definitely need to change their formula as it has simply not worked thus far. I would assume from the other companies involved in the merger, that they are now trying to emulate Ryman's formula. Good luck to them, they'll definitely need it.

karen1
08-05-2012, 09:14 AM
Further to Paper Tiger's link above is today's item http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/6876479/Threes-a-company-for-Metlifecare

As Sparky says, is bigger going to be better in this case? Is there a chance that a combination of new management may improve the business model?

percy
08-05-2012, 09:30 AM
I think the merger will be positive for the three companies involved,and for the retirement village sector as a whole,as we will have three strong companies in this sector;Metlife,Ryman and Sommerset.With the growth in this sector over the next decades there is plently of room for all companies.I am happy to be overweighted in RYM,whose business model is second to none.

CJ
08-05-2012, 09:43 AM
Wioll be interesting to see what the shareprice will do.

VSL shareholders gets shares for the purchase and given it is 68% owned by PE so you would expect them to be sellers.
PLC shareholders gets shares for the purchase. It is 100% owned by RVNZ who are on record as selling down following the purchase to below 50% (cant reduce belwo 35% within 12 months).

Sounds like there may be some selling pressure in the short term which maybe a good opportunity to buy in if management picks up their game.

On the watch list but a happy RYM holder.

karen1
08-05-2012, 09:46 AM
Good to hear that Percy. I have been watching Sommerset and Met for some time now, and am wondering if Met is likely to remain in an acquisition/merger type mode for a while yet, and if it's possible they might reach further and look at Sommerset. If they can lift their game, and do acquire Sommerset, they would surely become a formiddable challenge to Ryman?

percy
08-05-2012, 05:30 PM
Good to hear that Percy. I have been watching Sommerset and Met for some time now, and am wondering if Met is likely to remain in an acquisition/merger type mode for a while yet, and if it's possible they might reach further and look at Sommerset. If they can lift their game, and do acquire Sommerset, they would surely become a formiddable challenge to Ryman?

."Formiddable challenge to Ryman?" only formiddable challenge is sorting themselves out.!!!!

CJ
09-05-2012, 08:03 AM
Size?

Or a change to their business model?There is some efficiency with size but the answer to your question is the later. Their bigger size will give them more scope to do have a rethink about their business model.

Snow Leopard
21-06-2012, 01:35 PM
So it was approved after yet another round of twiddling. [ Announcement (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MET&E=NZSE&N=224117) ]


best wishes
Paper Tiger

POSSUM THE CAT
16-07-2012, 03:51 PM
SparkyTheClown Out of Interest what was the offer TIA

POSSUM THE CAT
17-07-2012, 10:28 AM
SparkyTheClown Thanks

cloggs
18-07-2012, 12:34 PM
Up to $2.35 now

macduffy
18-07-2012, 12:40 PM
I took a few in the placement - scaled back a bit in fact. Seems to have been well received by the market which has them now at $2.35.

Must admit that my logic for investing in them is a bit flawed in that I regard RYM as the superior company/investment but have been too mean to add to my current holding recently - waiting for the dips! With reasonable management all companies in this sector should prosper.

macduffy
18-07-2012, 03:21 PM
I like the sector, Sparky, so at this stage it's into my longterm portfolio. May look to "swap" it for some more RYM at some time in the future depending on the two companies' relative performances.

Realistically, I'd expect the SP to come back a bit as the hot money takes its cut although it seems to be holding up well today on solid volume.

Felix
28-08-2012, 06:48 PM
The share price has been on a fairly steady march upwards over the last month, rising from $2.35 to $2.75. That is despite a number of new shareholders being well 'in the money', having picked up shares from RVNZ for $2.20 just one month ago.

I suspect profit taking will kick in shortly, which will halt the march upward. Once some of that selling has been absorbed you would hope that the price settles closer to the (post merger) NTA of $3.20, as both SUM and RYM trade well above their NTA. Of course, MET directors will need to provide some confidence to the market that they are doing a good job and that the merger has been successful.

Felix
19-09-2012, 06:34 PM
Well less than one month on from my last post and the price has continued marching upwards to levels last seen in 2008. Of course the company's price isn't alone in this regard, especially when you compare it with the RYM and SUM charts.

The positive for MET is that they are still trading below their post-merger NTA of $3.24. This compares with RYM and SUM, who both trade signficantly higher than their NTAs. The negative is that there is limited visibility on how the merger is faring - we'll probably get an update at the AGM in October.

troyvdh
24-10-2012, 04:38 PM
...seldom do I see ... no sellers....

Giday sparky....can you release that doc from GSachs....and when you say MET is cheaper than RYM........surely the SP is no reflection on the value of a company ....like RYM could have another 5/1 in the near future (again)...if you get my drift....the company retains the same value....cheers

percy
24-10-2012, 05:25 PM
Goldman Sachs / JB Were have just released a research document saying Ryman is fully priced and Metlife is cheap. They base their report mostly on house price inflation comparisons. Their report is quite weak on healthcare analysis though, nowhere is the concept of dementia care mentioned, a real strength of Ryman over other RV operators.

I agree MET is cheaper than RYM, but does that make it a better company to invest in long term?

Sauce has always been right on the money with his Ryman valuations on the Ryman thread, and has shared his thoughts on both SUM and MET.

percy
24-10-2012, 06:40 PM
Thanks for the trouble you have gone to Sparky.
I can't comment on MET,however I think their view of Ryman is spot on.

NZSilver
25-10-2012, 01:02 PM
Hi Sparky,

Cheers for the article above - very useful.

I never thought twice about MET as have preferred to hold RYM, but since the latest merger, sale and change in control I believe there is reduced risk and good potential for a turn around. Hence I bought a small holding.

Obviously a good industry to be in and MET is cheap relative to NTA with management hopefully using the assets now to generate some profit. If there is a Div it would really egt thing moving in terms of share price.

I still havn't invested in SUM as I increased my holding in RYM, and in my view it SUM similar but not as good as RYM.

However I may buy some SUM if RYM keeps moving upwards. Will also be interesting to see how RYM goes in Aussie.

Matt.T

Sauce
25-10-2012, 06:22 PM
The one thing that the Goldman Sachs report doesn't mention is the word "dementia".

I note this because I know that Ryman consider it a huge advantage that they are building in their villages purpose built dementia care units with scale.

The other operators are not building specialist dementia care, and only a couple are offering aged care. The Ryman management I've spoken with are convinced this is a major benefit to being in a Ryman unit - you never have to leave if your care needs change.

I've had the chance to recently walk around two Ryman villages, the Evelyn Page village in Orewa, and the Diana Isaac Village in Shirley CHCH, andhave to say I was utterly blown away at the scale of the operations, including the attention to detail in the dementia care wings.

I've also toured Metlife Villages (the Remuera St Vincents) and the Summerset Villages in Manukau and Warkworth, and have to say Ryman are superior complexes (though the others are not to be sneezed at as markedly inferior, just not the same level of complete facilities as the Ryman ones.)

Word.
Sauce

777
30-10-2012, 03:35 PM
No dividend for this year.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/7883137/No-dividend-from-Metlifecare

Joshuatree
02-02-2013, 10:04 PM
Folks listen up. In the AFR 1/2/13 "The $553 million Retirement Village Group RVG is in breach of its loan covenants, triggering a dramatic recent jump in its borrowing costs...... RVG holds a 43% slice of Metlife Care NZ and its investors hope the sale of that stake may cover the outstanding debt......Financial sources argue RVG may have to stomach a deep discount on the Metlife share trade"

Joshuatree
03-02-2013, 10:45 AM
Yes . Icant cut and paste atm so selective v slow 2 fingered typing. Looking good for FKP(i hold from $1.40) and int re Metlife. Maybe a cheap entry coming up.

Snow Leopard
04-04-2013, 12:37 PM
So in addition to owning Ryman and Summerset I have now added Metlifecare to my portfolio.

Currently still trading just under NTA and trading well under NTA+Resident Loans, if they can get their act together and up the rate at which they build, and more importantly, sell new units then I dare say the market in general will decide to push the price up.

The accounts say to me that they could borrow a bit of money (that was recently paid back) to develop their build capability and kick start some decent growth.

So then they would not be 'too cold' anymore.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: 'too hot' and 'just right' ? try working them out. :mellow:

BIRMANBOY
04-04-2013, 03:56 PM
Hedging your bets? One of them is bound to let you buy a unit.
So in addition to owning Ryman and Summerset I have now added Metlifecare to my portfolio.

Currently still trading just under NTA and trading well under NTA+Resident Loans, if they can get their act together and up the rate at which they build, and more importantly, sell new units then I dare say the market in general will decide to push the price up.

The accounts say to me that they could borrow a bit of money (that was recently paid back) to develop their build capability and kick start some decent growth.

So then they would not be 'too cold' anymore.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: 'too hot' and 'just right' ? try working them out. :mellow:

CJ
21-04-2013, 09:35 AM
Could the growth rate in earnings look more like 20% over five years, eg more heroic than Ryman?.
I guess that's the question. In theory, RYM model is quite simple so why shouldn't it's growth rate increase. There is plenty of room in the market for all three to have high growth rates.

So are MET's management up to it?

macduffy
21-04-2013, 11:41 AM
I'm happily invested in all three listed companies in the sector, most happily in RYM!

I wonder though if a limiting factor in their growth will turn out to be the availability of suitable building sites in areas in which prospective clients will want to live. Has anyone researched this question?

macduffy
21-04-2013, 03:49 PM
Golf courses and Race courses seem to be the best avenues for finding land. Many of these clubs are struggling with lower membership. They can carve off parcels of land, or consolidate with neighbouring clubs to free up land.
.
......As Summerset are planning at Hutt/Boulcott Farm. But failing such opportunities, I'm not sure that greenfields sites away from established residential areas will have much appeal. Still, if that's the only option.......

CJ
23-04-2013, 07:13 AM
However, I note that Metlife have a philosophy of building in developed centres. They may mix this now with the merger with Vision.Different strategies. It meas the cost of land is more but it also means the holding costs while undeveloped are less.

I think a combo of the two is probably right - buy land to develop immediately where there is a need, but also land bank so that you have a constant stream of property to develop. Ryman couldn't have developed its good inhouse resource if it had a lumpy development schedule.

I invested in MET in the hope it can start to mirror some of RYM core strengths. No doubt they are looking at that and hopefully the shareprice will respond in due to. However, the bulk of my money is in RYM. In hindsight by diversification in the sector should have been into SUM but I think MET has the biggest opportunity to turn a corner. Time will tell.

percy
23-04-2013, 08:01 AM
If they can reach Ryman levels of earnings growth consistently, they should be good for $4.00. I am interested in doing more homework on this one, but its not a priority.

Just take your time,none of us are in a hurry.Quality research is always worth waiting for.In the meantime RYM and SUM continue their upwards trejactory.

Snow Leopard
26-04-2013, 04:57 PM
Average volume day but it has not closed this high since it last closed this high (8th-Jan-2013).

Has the slow but relentless upward pressure over the last three months finally overcome the resistance?

Will this be the break-out we have been waiting for and is it "$8 here we come"?

Climb aboard the afternoon tea trolley before all the Lamingtons are gone.

Best wishes
Paper Tiger

troyvdh
29-04-2013, 03:57 PM
...dear PT it appears you aint wrong....cheers

Cool Bear
29-04-2013, 05:07 PM
Hi PT I wanted to try the lamingtons this morning but the tea lady ignored my pennies (3.35). Ah well, too old to be chasing after her. After all the next tea lady, May, is just a day away.

Snow Leopard
30-04-2013, 04:50 PM
Whilst failing to achieve the gains of speculative shares such as Ryman and Summerset reasonable further share price appreciation was attained today.

Unfortunately we have run of sellers.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: hold MET, RYM & SUM.

Jasemc
21-05-2013, 04:00 PM
Any idea why met life sp is trending down? Are they turning their properties into kiwi fruit orchards LOL

Snow Leopard
21-05-2013, 04:39 PM
Any idea why met life sp is trending down? Are they turning their properties into kiwi fruit orchards LOL
Would be nicer if they went and bought some land for a new development or two.

I would prefer that it stays up but above $3.30 I have no concerns.
[ $3.24 - $3.30: 'keep an eye on it';
$3.17 - $3.24: 'hope it doesn't drop further';
$3.09 - $3.17: 'oh! This is a bit worrying';
less than $3.09: 'whose stupid idea was it to buy this? ]

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Jasemc
21-05-2013, 04:41 PM
Maybe Taihape might be a good place to look for land.

Snow Leopard
21-05-2013, 04:56 PM
Maybe Taihape might be a good place to look for land.

Gumboot Capital of the World (http://www.taihape.co.nz) :t_up:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

troyvdh
21-05-2013, 05:10 PM
It would be quite good if someome with more time and nous than me could compare RYM SUM MET ...major shareholdings either management or institutions .purchases,sales etc...

In fact has anyone tracked the SP performance of a particular company with major shareholders movements to see if there was a relation to the SP performance ?

I think back to THL and Sir Wallis's involvement....then again Ngai Tahu sold of out of RYM.....and Fisher Funds buying again into THL...Todd in the past buying into CUE.... cheers

Jasemc
28-05-2013, 09:09 PM
Still above $3.30 who thinks it has hit bottom?

Snow Leopard
28-05-2013, 09:50 PM
Still above $3.30 who thinks it has hit bottom?

I am not going to commit myself, it could do anything!
If you are into trend lines you might think $3.20(ish) and rising a little each day is important;

if you are me (you're not are you?) then see a few posts back.

If you are you then what do you think?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

troyvdh
28-05-2013, 10:55 PM
dear paper T....I have the answer....MET has a NTA of 334.85 and has a MkT value of some $600 million
....RYM has a NTA of 146.89 and has a MKT value of some $3,200 billion (CEN is $3.7 billion)

...do you see what I saying here.....say RYM were to buy MET and apply their "nous"....everyone would be happy huh !!!!!!....

...do you thinks I should patent this idea perhaps......

hilskin
30-05-2013, 07:36 AM
8:31am, 30 May 2013 | PLACE30 May 2013
Metlifecare Announces $70m Capital Raising to Reduce Debt and Fund Growth
TARGETED BUILD RATE OF 200+ NEW UNITS AND BEDS PER YEAR BY FY15
Leading retirement village and aged care provider, Metlifecare Limited, is raising $70 million in new capital from a placement to institutional and eligible investors. Metlifecare has achieved its stated goals following the 2012 merger and is now looking to strengthen its balance sheet and fund future growth. Goldman Sachs is underwriting the placement and acting as sole lead manager, placement agent, and book runner.
Following the institutional placement, Metlifecare is offering a Share Purchase Plan (SPP) to eligible shareholders, with further details to be announced in due course. This will enable all Metlifecare's shareholders to participate in the offer.
Since July 2012, when the merger with Vision Senior Living and Private Life Care Holdings was completed, Metlifecare has delivered on the objectives outlined in the June 2012 prospectus. The company is on track to exceed its cash flow target of $60.7 million1 for the 2013 financial year, has undertaken two significant asset sales ($38 million) and is continuing to maintain and enhance its continuum of care at existing villages.
Following the capital initiatives, Metlifecare's non-development debt is expected to be substantially eliminated. Chairman of Metlifecare, Mr Peter Brown, commented: "The capital initiatives announced today are intended to ensure there is more capacity to progress consents and developments on our existing sites, allow us to further expand our greenfield land bank and fund the development of aged care facilities and services. Our build rate is targeted to increase to 200+ new units and beds per annum by FY15."
Metlifecare is an established operator, with a balanced portfolio of mature and new villages. The company's portfolio is located in the North Island, with the majority of villages located in the premium Auckland, Hamilton and Bay of Plenty regions.
The company currently operates 23 villages, comprised of 3,812 units and 361 care beds. It has a further pipeline of 903 units and care beds, of which 78 are currently under construction. In addition, greenfield sites, at Unsworth Heights and Glenfield in Auckland, are at various stages of resource consent and planning and will contain care facilities and the full continuum of care.
If Retirement Villages New Zealand Limited does not participate in the capital raising, its shareholding will reduce from approximately 43% to approximately 39% following the placement.
Key Dates:
- Trading halt on NZX Thursday 30 May 2013
- Offer opens and bookbuild commences Thursday 30 May 2013
- Offer closes, allocations advised and trading halt
lifted To be advised
- Settlement of placement and allotment and trading of placement shares Thursday 6 June 2013
The Metlifecare board has also agreed that the company will seek an ASX listing shortly following the placement and SPP in order to enlarge its shareholder base.
Further information on these strategic and capital raising initiatives can be viewed in the presentation on the company's website and accompanying announcement on the NZX.
1 The cash flow target is exclusive of one-off integration costs and interest cost.
ENDS

CJ
30-05-2013, 07:37 AM
Capital raising (Institutional and SPP) to eliminate non development debt and increase build rate:

https://www.nzx.com/companies/MET/announcements/236828

Also will seek ASX listing

Strategy update: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/176000.pdf

glasszon
30-05-2013, 08:10 AM
What do people feel about SPP for MET? Unlike the other one (SNK) I am not sure this is one that I will purchase shares in just to participate in the SPP.

Edit: Ignore what I said, just realised unlike SNK they are placing a trading halt right now until the SPP is over, so even if you wanted to you can't participate in the SPP unless you already have shares in MET.

CJ
30-05-2013, 08:18 AM
What do people feel about SPP for MET? Unlike the other one (SNK) I am not sure this is one that I will purchase shares in just to participate in the SPP.

Edit: Ignore what I said, just realised unlike SNK they are placing a trading halt right now until the SPP is over, so even if you wanted to you can't participate in the SPP unless you already have shares in MET.Not quite right (though I have been blamed for not reading things correctly). My take is there is an institutional build at the moment for $70m. Then there will be a SPP for those on the register at 14 June, I assume allowing you to take upto the maximum $15k the law allows without a prospectus.

Depending on the price will determine if the SPP is worth taking up.

Off topic question: With SPP, especially when they are discounted, I have never understood why the record date wasn't at the time of the announcement. Otherwise you get all the games of buying $500 on market to get $15k at a discount.

glasszon
30-05-2013, 08:38 AM
Lord knows the company doesn't care about the shareholders, it only wants to stuff its accounts again with cash! If you were smart you would sell off the portion of of your holding above the SPP up to $15k, buy back in and then play the waiting game. The best bet would be a 1 for 1 deal; every 1 share held allows you to buy 1 more at SPP, thereby mitigating a sell-off effect. But let's not let logic get in the way of cash, oh no!

I think for both SNK and MET (if they go down the same route) have different rationale as to why they do this.

For SNK they want to maximize the cash intake without having to do a prospectus, while it might hurt the existing shareholders in short term, but running out of liquidity in growth phase would be the last thing shareholders want anyway.

For MET, if they go the same route it would be because doing otherwise would mean little intake from the SPP, not sure how many shareholders are that keen to participate in the SPP given how this company has been performing, doubling down while you are down is hardly a good strategy to be successful in the share market.

As shown by the MRP float, I am not sure listing on ASX would change the share price much for this company.

CJ
30-05-2013, 09:34 AM
For MET, if they go the same route it would be because doing otherwise would mean little intake from the SPP, not sure how many shareholders are that keen to participate in the SPP given how this company has been performing, doubling down while you are down is hardly a good strategy to be successful in the share market.Down? Per Google, in the past 12m it is up 62% compared to 80 and 87 or SUM and RYM - so not 'great' but well above the NZX50 of 20%.

I think this also shows them wanting to get their finances in order so they can start buying more land. They currently only have sites for an extra 900 units which is plenty at their current build rate but only 4 years at their target of 200+ units. Ryman now has a target of 750 units by way of comparison (I think there landbank is also about 4 years).

They are also focusing on the upper north island which given their smaller size, makes sense that they specialise and given that is where over 50% of the population lives, seems a reasonable area to target.

Likewise, they will also start building care beds.

To me it looks like they have been studying RYM playbook which can only be a good thing.

The ASX listing looks like a cheap trick, same with SUM. It worked for XRO though.

CJ
30-05-2013, 10:02 AM
Seems silly that they would want to start buying up more land in the most overvalued part of the country right when the Reserve Bank is ready to implement tools to intervene in the currency AND real estate markets, as well as start raising the OCR in the first month of next year, if not sooner!Its overvalued for a reason - its where people want to live. They normally buy undeveloped land in brown/greenfields sites so are cheap compared to a subdivided site with services.

CJ
30-05-2013, 10:06 AM
As long as they stick to that guidance then sweet :)Agree that care does need to be taken to ensure they are not just empire building (ie. overpaying just to have more assets under ownership).

macduffy
30-05-2013, 10:32 AM
I would think that the ASX listing is being done at the behest of the major (Aussie) shareholder, looking to broaden the market for future sell-downs?

No particular problem with that if it widens the potential market for the shares, but of course it comes at a price.

Snow Leopard
30-05-2013, 06:07 PM
What is good here is that they know they have to get their build rate up, and a target of 200 units in just over a years time is good.
But beyond that they will need to be going much higher. To be Ryman-esque their current build rate should be 600+.

To fund the 200+ target they could probably kick it off within their existing $250M limit but a rapidly increasing target needs more cash, thus the need to cut down the current borrowings.

Once they get to a good rate and providing the profit on new units sales are good (requires self-building the units) then they could self-fund themselves from the cash flow.

What is also good is that they are moving to a greater number of care beds that is where you make actual cash profits as opposed to property re-evaluation gain profits (albeit with the quasi-liability occupancy advances cash behind them).

I bought my MET in the belief that they would be getting their act together and up the build rate (said so on this thread I think) and believe they are doing the right thing.

Could not care a hoot whether they list on the ASX or not.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Lizard
30-05-2013, 07:56 PM
Time to go back to an old toy then?

4564
(credit: Craig Mahoney (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/28/grown-up-calvin-and-hobbes-craig-mahoney_n_3346746.html?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular))

janner
30-05-2013, 08:47 PM
Time to go back to an old toy then?

4564
(credit: Craig Mahoney (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/28/grown-up-calvin-and-hobbes-craig-mahoney_n_3346746.html?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular))

Grraaaaaa R Sorry Liz.. This is directed at percy.. .. told him weeks ago..

Metlife .. Not those other two.. ..

His problem is .. He is directing so much of his attention into HNZ..

It may not come to pass.. !!..

In the mean time it leaves me much in the same position..

HNZ... It may not come to pass :-))

Which brings me back to the head line

Time to pack old toys.. ?? Maybe ..

CJ
31-05-2013, 08:28 AM
Placement at 3.10 so about a 9% discount. Shareprice should drop today on profit taking.

I assume the SPP will also be at 3.10 which will also keep a lid on the price for a while.

Jasemc
31-05-2013, 02:17 PM
Any wisdom why SP is sitting still at $3.30? Thought would be closer to 3.10.

glasszon
31-05-2013, 02:53 PM
Any wisdom why SP is sitting still at $3.30? Thought would be closer to 3.10.

The shares from the placement cannot be traded yet.

macduffy
31-05-2013, 02:55 PM
The usual reason would be that the placement at $3.10 was well sought and that there is still unsatisfied demand at a higher price. Normal supply and demand.

Inability to trade shares from the placement won't be an issue if recipients are already big shareholders. Of course, they may not want to take profits!

Snow Leopard
14-06-2013, 11:27 AM
Upped their forecast cash flow from $61M to $70M today (https://nzx.com/companies/MET/announcements/237415), put a bit of bounce in the share price.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

noodles
15-06-2013, 01:47 PM
Upped their forecast cash flow from $61M to $70M today (https://nzx.com/companies/MET/announcements/237415), put a bit of bounce in the share price.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

These guys made 20million cashflow is the first half, so they made ,50 in the second half. Annualised that is 100 million. With a market cap of around 700 million, doesn't that make this company very cheap?

Snow Leopard
15-06-2013, 02:54 PM
These guys made 20million cashflow is the first half, so they made ,50 in the second half. Annualised that is 100 million. With a market cap of around 700 million, doesn't that make this company very cheap?

The original $60M7 forecast came with some small text:
"The operating cash flow target includes sales, resales, repurchases and operational expenses but is exclusive of one-off merger costs, integration costs and interest cost."

On that basis first half was $29M2.

So you may wish to revise your opinion to "reasonably cheap".

What I expect to see over the next few years is a steady increase in build rate, cash flow and profit as they gear up to a growth company from the mess that they have been.

But it will take time.

Best wishes
Paper Tiger

noodles
15-06-2013, 03:34 PM
So second half op cash flow was 41 mil. Therefore annualised is 82 mil.

forest
15-06-2013, 04:57 PM
MET has recently had a capital raising and therefore an increase in the amount of shares on issue. What is important to the investor is the cashflow per share. Doing the calculation with the extra shares on issue it does not look to flash to me, for the forecasted CF/Sh calculation now compared to before the equity raising.

Just my thought in the forest.

percy
15-06-2013, 05:03 PM
MET has recently had a capital raising and therefore an increase in the amount of shares on issue. What is important to the investor is the cashflow per share. Doing the calculation with the extra shares on issue it does not look to flash to me, for the forecasted CF/Sh calculation now compared to before the equity raising.

Just my thought in the forest.

Would appear to be plenty of good light in your part of the forest, affording you a clear view.!

Snow Leopard
15-06-2013, 06:55 PM
MET has recently had a capital raising and therefore an increase in the amount of shares on issue. What is important to the investor is the cashflow per share. Doing the calculation with the extra shares on issue it does not look to flash to me, for the forecasted CF/Sh calculation now compared to before the equity raising.

Just my thought in the forest.

Well that depends upon which numbers you were using and we can discuss this till the sun dies, but as a for instance.

Deducting the interest but not the one offs the increase of shares from 184M5 to 210M4 [+14%] would increase cash flow (due to reduced borrowings) from $59M ($70M - $11) to $65M ($70M - $5M) [+10%] if nothing else changed. So, not so bad.


But...


The aim of the capital raising is (all together now :p):

To increase the build rate, and thus cash flow and profit as they gear up to being a growth company from the mess that they have been.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

forest
15-06-2013, 07:31 PM
Deducting the interest but not the one offs the increase of shares from 184M5 to 210M4 [+14%] would increase cash flow (due to reduced borrowings) from $59M ($70M - $11) to $65M ($70M - $5M) [+10%] if nothing else changed. [I]So, not so bad.

An increase of a fc 10% in cash flow was seen as a positive by the market and a poster on this side. If one factors in the 14% increase in share on issue I would consider this a down grade for now.

I agree with you Tiger that over time the equity raising might be very positive but then it could b ???

noodles
16-06-2013, 01:45 PM
So second half op cash flow was 41 mil. Therefore annualised is 82 mil.

I missed the interest charge saved as a result of the capital raising. According to PT, it is $6million. Some of that will be factored into this years forecasts, but lets say it is $5million. That makes annualized cashflow of 82 +5 = 87 million.

Total shares on issue after the equity raising is 207 million.

So that is cash flow per share of 42 cps.

Current share price is 3.19

This gives a p/cashflow ratio of 7.59

noodles
16-06-2013, 01:54 PM
I missed the interest charge saved as a result of the capital raising. According to PT, it is $6million. Some of that will be factored into this years forecasts, but lets say it is $5million. That makes annualized cashflow of 82 +5 = 87 million.

Total shares on issue after the equity raising is 207 million.

So that is cash flow per share of 42 cps.

Current share price is 3.19

This gives a p/cashflow ratio of 7.59

I compared this to RYM (based on historical result)

This gives a p/cashflow ratio of 14.

So RYM is more expensive. Probably for good reasons. However, there is a major value gap for companies in the same industry with the same business model.

percy
16-06-2013, 02:06 PM
Same industry, but not quite the same business model. They are moving to a more Ryman like model, but are not there yet (please correct me if I am wrong!)

You are right.
However MET have a long way to go to get the model right.
History shows they have had it wrong for years,and as is often the case,turnarounds take a long time to get right.

noodles
16-06-2013, 02:48 PM
You are right.
However MET have a long way to go to get the model right.
History shows they have had it wrong for years,and as is often the case,turnarounds take a long time to get right.

So what constitutes a turn around?

Last year Results (30/6/2012) returned $31 mill cashflows on 153mill shares on issue. That is cashflow per share 20c.

We now know that the annualised rate is 42cps. This assumes no growth.

Given cashflow per share has doubled, does this not constitutes a turn around? What will trigger a market re-rating closer to RYM?

percy
16-06-2013, 03:11 PM
Proof that they are stable, and can grow without coming back to shareholders for more cash.
Should you look at comparing MET with RYM you will note RYM have always done it right,while MET,going back to Cliff Cooks's days has a pretty checked path.I was a shareholder in those days.I think RYM have cared for all their shareholders,while MET has major shareholders, whose interests seem more important.
For someone like me who holds both RYM and SUM,it will take performance and time before I would consider buying again.

Newman
18-06-2013, 12:40 PM
It is not bad to sell at $3.28 now and buy back next week at $3.10.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
METLIFECARE ANNOUNCES OPENING OF SHARE PURCHASE PLAN
As announced on 30 May 2013, Metlifecare Limited is pleased to announce the
opening of its Share Purchase Plan (SPP) to eligible shareholders.
Metlifecare is seeking to raise up to $10 million of new capital through an
SPP available to all current New Zealand shareholders.
The attached SPP offer document has been sent to Metlifecare's New Zealand
shareholders who were on the share register at 5.00pm on the Record Date of
14 June 2013, as disclosed in the Appendix 7 notice. The SPP opens on
Wednesday 19 June 2013 and closes on 5 July 2013 (unless extended).
Under the SPP, eligible shareholders are invited to subscribe for a maximum
of $15,000 of shares per shareholder. If the SPP is oversubscribed,
applications may be scaled. The SPP subscription price is $3.10 per share.
The allotment date for the SPP shares is 12 July 2013 (unless extended). No
brokerage or other transaction costs will be payable by shareholders.

CJ
18-06-2013, 12:52 PM
It is not bad to sell at $3.28 now and buy back next week at $3.10.I would expect heavy scaling. If SNK can raise 7.5m from its very small share base, MET should have a large oversubscription provided they do cap it at $10m.

Minimum holding of 1 share applies so feel free to sell down.

If it goes higher over the next few days, I may be tempted but any gain will be at the margins.

Blendy
18-06-2013, 12:56 PM
hmmm... I won't be selling my holding, but am debating whether to buy in the SPP...

CJ
21-06-2013, 08:25 AM
What are peoples thoughts on the SPP. I have received my forms and put a note in the diary - given the way the US when overnight, the shareprice may be below 3.10 soon!

forest
21-06-2013, 09:09 AM
My 2 cents

macduffy
21-06-2013, 10:02 AM
Buying a few more RYM on market is looking more attractive to me than MET's SPP.

CJ
21-06-2013, 10:42 AM
Buying a few more RYM on market is looking more attractive to me than MET's SPP.I think SUM looking the most attractive at the moment.

MET is 3.14 so unlikely they will get much of the $10m if this continues.

Jasemc
25-06-2013, 07:32 PM
I think SUM looking the most attractive at the moment.

MET is 3.14 so unlikely they will get much of the $10m if this continues.


ok wise people is it worth buying into the share purchase plan?:confused:

CJ
25-06-2013, 07:35 PM
ok wise people is it worth buying into the share purchase plan?:confused:
Mmm Not sure. At current prices I wonder if SUM is the best buy at the moment

Blendy
25-06-2013, 07:46 PM
I tend to agree. I was going to go in for the SPP, but have instead topped up on SUM at these prices. Also, having just done an assignment on SUM for an MBA paper swayed me as well :)

Jasemc
28-06-2013, 11:56 AM
What's up with MetLife going up. Thought with spp that it would hover around 3.10?

Jasemc
28-06-2013, 12:22 PM
Must be a big buyer of a tide. Maybe dividends are going to happen.

CJ
28-06-2013, 12:52 PM
What's up with MetLife going up. Thought with spp that it would hover around 3.10?The increase makes the SPP more of a sure thing.

There are some small trades so maybe people buying in to take advantage of the SPP but a few big ones too.

Jasemc
28-06-2013, 12:55 PM
Yes a few big ones makes me wonder.

Bjauck
28-06-2013, 01:08 PM
ACC may have dropped below the 5% SSH level but it has actually increased the number of shares it owned. Reading the SSH announcment, it now has 10,163,500 shares cf 9,370,091 previously. I am presuming it took part in the institutional placement and then sold some later. It has actually committed more funds to Metlifecare. I am still debating whether to take part in the $3.10 SPP - this ACC announcement may help me decide to take up some but perhaps not the full $15,000.

CJ
28-06-2013, 01:19 PM
I am still debating whether to take part in the $3.10 SPP - this ACC announcement may help me decide to take up some but perhaps not the full $15,000.I will probably get a few, but am waiting closer to the end. The higher the price gets, the more likely there will be scaling which may impact the amount I purchase (if the price is high, better to overshot and sell down if I get more than I actually want (due to no scaling), than to not apply for many and get that significantly scaled back).

noodles
29-06-2013, 09:13 PM
Sparky has highlighted the development margins for RYM and SUM. Does anybody know the MET development margins. I can't seem to find it in the recent reports/presentations.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9221-Retirement-Sector-Valuation-Criteria&p=414489&viewfull=1#post414489

CJ
08-07-2013, 03:24 PM
The SPP closed oversubscribed and so it will be scaled back about 20%:

https://www.nzx.com/companies/MET/announcements/238325

66% of investors applied being 1234 with an average amount of ~$9,500. That is good support and those that participated will be reward with (per current price) a 5% gain. It will be interesting to see how many dump once allocated on the 12th.

CJ
06-08-2013, 10:03 AM
Positive article in the Hearld on all three listed operators: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10908595

CJ
08-08-2013, 08:58 AM
ACC has popped its head above the 5% limit. Its last (small) purchase at 3.23:
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/179293.pdf

CJ
23-08-2013, 09:10 AM
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/180279.pdf

Annual result out and looking good.Good result. New and resale figures look great.

It would be good to see their build rate increasing. They are targeting 200+pa vs 700+pa from Ryman.

CJ
23-08-2013, 03:32 PM
Annual result out and looking good.
I am surprised it isn't up more today.

Blendy
23-08-2013, 03:46 PM
I am surprised it isn't up more today. same! I would have thought there'd be a much bigger jump with those results.

iceman
24-08-2013, 06:46 AM
All 3, MET, SUM & RYM seem to be taking a well earned breather in the SP. I'm well content with a bit of consolidation after recent big gains.

CJ
24-08-2013, 06:53 AM
All 3, MET, SUM & RYM seem to be taking a well earned breather in the SP. I'm well content with a bit of consolidation after recent big gains.MET run hasn't been as good as the others and is trading at a discount to the others. That is justified historically but I think this latest result shows they have turned a corner - much better cash flows, sales up. The only think they need to do is up the build rate and continue the improvements they have been making.

janner
25-08-2013, 08:15 PM
Agree CJ. MET has long been on my To Buy list.. No funds available :-((..

If starting today ... It would still be well up on my to buy list..

Unfortunately.. Happy riding the HNZ rise at present until ???????.. Two years ??..

Monies coming in . !!.. " So little coming in .. ( to many DRP's ) So many opportunities..




MET run hasn't been as good as the others and is trading at a discount to the others. That is justified historically but I think this latest result shows they have turned a corner - much better cash flows, sales up. The only think they need to do is up the build rate and continue the improvements they have been making.

CJ
28-08-2013, 03:21 PM
MET run hasn't been as good as the others and is trading at a discount to the others. That is justified historically but I think this latest result shows they have turned a corner - much better cash flows, sales up. The only think they need to do is up the build rate and continue the improvements they have been making. article in the NBR suggests I am not alone/making it up: http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/metlifecare-undervalued-compared-peers-has-scope-rise-devons-glass-says-bd-145038

extract:
Ryman shares are trading at around 4.6 times book value while Summerset is trading at about 2.6 times and Metlifecare is trading close to its book value at 0.8 times.

Ryman and Metlifecare both generated free cash flow of about $30 million in the 2013 financial year. Summerset hasn't yet reported its full-year earnings.

CJ
05-09-2013, 08:38 AM
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/29bc74c6/resource-consent-for-new-glenfield-village-for-metlifecare.html

Consent for a new village in Glenfield. Interesting location choice - Glenfeild is probably one of the cheaper suburbs on the shore. Mall is close but up a step hill so to far for the oldies to walk (I wonder if they will offer a shuttle service).

I note Ryman has bought a site in Birkenhead somewhere (still haven't seen the address) which is very close and (potentially) a slightly better demographic.

baller18
09-09-2013, 08:50 PM
Is MET undervalued compared to SUM?
I tend to think MET is the better one over SUM..
The book value is twice of that of summersets..
And doesn't MET earn more profits than sum as well...
How come all the attention is on SUM and not much on MET?
Am I missing something here...

MAC
09-09-2013, 08:56 PM
Is MET undervalued compared to SUM?
I tend to think MET is the better one over SUM..
The book value is twice of that of summersets..
And doesn't MET earn more profits than sum as well...
How come all the attention is on SUM and not much on MET?
Am I missing something here...

Baller, may I suggest that you may benefit from having a go at some FA. Let us know what results you get and may wish to contribute for constructive comment.

baller18
09-09-2013, 09:07 PM
Baller, may I suggest that you may benefit from having a go at some FA. Let us know what results you get and may wish to contribute for constructive comment.
i'm a bit confused, if we are taking book values of each company, without taking account into earnings, met BV per share is $2.1 and SUM's is $1.1 or something.
I have read over the posts, is it because of the management, and how they can grow the business?

CJ
10-09-2013, 09:12 AM
i'm a bit confused, if we are taking book values of each company, without taking account into earnings, met BV per share is $2.1 and SUM's is $1.1 or something.
I have read over the posts, is it because of the management, and how they can grow the business?
BV is relevant but only if they can turn it into earnings. Look at earnings and growth. I think MET is adding 200 a year, SUM 300 and RYM 700! It's this development, especially if they do I house and earths full developers margin, that drives the high prices.

Common thought is RYM is market leader in all respects, SUM is doing a reasonable job at copying (and wins awards) while MET is still to turn that corner. If they do, then they should take off.

Disc: hold RYM and heavily into MET

baller18
10-09-2013, 09:21 AM
BV is relevant but only if they can turn it into earnings. Look at earnings and growth. I think MET is adding 200 a year, SUM 300 and RYM 700! It's this development, especially if they do I house and earths full developers margin, that drives the high prices.

Common thought is RYM is market leader in all respects, SUM is doing a reasonable job at copying (and wins awards) while MET is still to turn that corner. If they do, then they should take off.

Disc: hold RYM and heavily into MET
Thanks heaps CJ, will study the growth and earnings of each company. Cheers!

baller18
17-09-2013, 10:26 AM
Anyone know much about grant arbuckle? Tried googling him... couldn't find much

"Grant is an experienced property and development manager. Having completed a
Bachelor of Town Planning at Auckland University in 1984 and a Master of
Business Administration at the University of Surrey in the UK in the 1990s,
Grant has gained valuable skills and experience, both locally and
internationally, in the leadership of multidisciplinary teams, property
development, master planning, urban regeneration and social and retirement
housing. Grant is a results-oriented, strategically-focused individual who
is well set to lead the development initiatives at Metlifecare. Grant will
assume the role of General Manager: Development and Assets on 1 November
2013."

Jasemc
17-09-2013, 10:51 AM
Think he might work for them already as development manager?

iceman
20-09-2013, 05:34 AM
From the Herald this morning:

"Village chatter

There is talk in the market about Metlifecare's major shareholder Retirement Villages Group (RVG) selling its stake in the company through a block trade.

RVG owns 37.7 per cent of New Zealand's second-largest listed retirement village operator. Its share would be worth about $200 million.

Australian media have suggested the deal could be done in November. But a local investment banking source said that was unlikely and it was just a rumour doing the rounds.

One fund manager said if the deal was done it would be good for the company as it would get rid of the overhang of having such a large stake held by one shareholder.

Metlifecare boosted its size last year after a merger with Vision Senior Living and Private Life Care Holdings. Its shares closed up 2c yesterday at $3.20."

CJ
20-09-2013, 06:55 AM
Interesting - that is a big overhang, so this rumour wont do anything good for the shareprice in the short term. Timing isn't good with Meridian coming up but the market in general should be able to absorb - it is a great long term play for kiwisaver funds etc who may have been holding back hoping for a placement.

iceman
20-09-2013, 07:59 AM
Interesting - that is a big overhang, so this rumour wont do anything good for the shareprice in the short term. Timing isn't good with Meridian coming up but the market in general should be able to absorb - it is a great long term play for kiwisaver funds etc who may have been holding back hoping for a placement.

Yes I thought this was interesting CJ. Probably at least partly explain the "reluctance" in the SP. Have been considering buying shares for months now, to have all 3 retirement, but still haven't jumped in. Can't decide whether to add MET to portfolio or buy more RYM & SUM !

CJ
20-09-2013, 08:43 AM
Yes I thought this was interesting CJ. Probably at least partly explain the "reluctance" in the SP. Have been considering buying shares for months now, to have all 3 retirement, but still haven't jumped in. Can't decide whether to add MET to portfolio or buy more RYM & SUM !I was hoping to see a (bigger) rise after the SPP thinking that had held back the price.

I hold RYM and MET and have been waiting for quadrant to exit SUM due to their overhang. Jury is still out on whether I should have bought SUM or MET.

baller18
20-09-2013, 08:57 AM
Hasn't quadrant sold all of their SUM?

CJ
20-09-2013, 09:22 AM
Hasn't quadrant sold all of their SUM?They have done two sell downs but still have 50m shares - 23% - I think this is their last SSH:
https://nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/236387

baller18
20-09-2013, 10:14 AM
thanks cj!

NZSilver
20-09-2013, 10:44 AM
Interesting, Ive had this debate. MET NTA per share is much greater then SUM and RYM (According to DB), based on this it is good value, however cf SUM and RYM I feel the buisness model and management are inferior (this may be the reason for the poor shareprice). RYM is fully price at the moment, SUM has a bit left in it and MET appears undervalued if you compare them on fundementals; but will the shareprice increase much? is it good value and therfore currently a better buy cf RYM and SUM? or are you better just to put you money into RYM or SUM. I dont know, but surely MET has potential. However im still sitting sideline. WOuld like otheres thoughts.

Disc: own RYM and SUM.

Heffner
20-09-2013, 10:54 AM
Interesting, Ive had this debate. MET NTA per share is much greater then SUM and RYM (According to DB), based on this it is good value, however cf SUM and RYM I feel the buisness model and management are inferior (this may be the reason for the poor shareprice). RYM is fully price at the moment, SUM has a bit left in it and MET appears undervalued if you compare them on fundementals; but will the shareprice increase much? is it good value and therfore currently a better buy cf RYM and SUM? or are you better just to put you money into RYM or SUM. I dont know, but surely MET has potential. However im still sitting sideline. WOuld like otheres thoughts.

Disc: own RYM and SUM.

Hi NZSilver,

I am 100% in the same boat as you.

I bought Ryman back in 2001 over Metlifecare who at the time were 333c as it was always inevitable that Aged Care was going to be a prosperous market.

I left the country not long after and returned 5 years later, and only started monitoring the share market situation again in around 2011.

Since then Ryman have gone up exponentially in that time and made a lot out of the buy. Then I looked at Metlifecare and they were under 300. Not sure if they did any share splits over that time however if they haven't how have they underperformed so poorly.

I then bought SUM about 6-8 months ago after thinking long and hard about SUM v MET. Glad I did as SUM have increased some 30% since then while MET have not changed.

It seems to me the MET Management is just not in the same league as the industry/market is an absolute winner.

Bjauck
20-09-2013, 11:13 AM
or are you better just to put you money into RYM or SUM. I dont know, but surely MET has potential. However im still sitting sideline. WOuld like otheres thoughts.

Disc: own RYM and SUM.

I currently do not directly own any residential or commercial property. I decided against increasing my exposure to the commercial Property Trusts although I have a relatively small holding in KIP. As by way of partial compensation I have relatively larger holdings in RYM, SUM and MET. I consider that through these holdings I have exposure to house prices with the hope that when the next property downturn comes, the cash income streams of RYM, SUM and MET will remain solid and with demographic changes continuing to work in their favour for some time.

RYM is my largest shareholding, I have been adding to SUM when Sp is below $3. MET I regard as the most speculative as a potential recovery (or rather, further recovery) stock. Both MET and SUM prices seem to be affecred by uncertainties over their largest shareholders.

CJ
20-09-2013, 11:30 AM
RYM is my largest shareholding, I have been adding to SUM when Sp is below $3. MET I regard as the most speculative as a potential recovery (or rather, further recovery) stock. Both MET and SUM prices seem to be affecred by uncertainties over their largest shareholders.I hold RYM and recently bought into MET as due to the speculative nature, has the potential to be re-rated up.

I have been planning on buying SUM below $3 but never have spare cash when it drops.

NZSilver
20-09-2013, 01:12 PM
Thansk for your replys. I will keep an eye on MET, the NTA to SP really makes me think there is potential.

Snow Leopard
20-09-2013, 05:58 PM
I must admit to being a little surprised that the SP is still hanging around these levels.

I bought in April as I thought I could see that they were getting their act together and it does appear to be that they are starting to deliver.

Still Rome was not built in a day either.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

NZSilver
23-09-2013, 09:56 AM
Carried out some research in the w/e and bought a small portion this morning. I feel investors are waiting to see consistent results before sp moves. Interms of value for money cf sum and rym, met its cheap, just a little more risk as the buisness model and management have resulted in varible past performance. Do they have a DRIP and can someone point me in the right direction of the significant shareholders list.

Cheers.

CJ
23-09-2013, 10:27 AM
and can someone point me in the right direction of the significant shareholders list. Annual report always a good place to start - sill show the top 20.

Apparently it has a Drip: http://www.dividendyield.co.nz/viewdetails.php?id=68

NZSilver
23-09-2013, 10:33 AM
Cheers CJ, I owe you a beer!

macduffy
23-09-2013, 11:07 AM
The top 20 is stuffed full of nominee holdings and doesn't throw a lot of light on the Substantial Security Holders. When you cut through those I think the significant numbers are:
Retirement Villages NZ Ltd - essentially FKP Ltd - with 38.723%
Onepath NZ Ltd - ANZ - 8.833%
AMP 6.789%
ACC 5.019%

gv1
23-09-2013, 01:23 PM
On of the brokers IRG recommends buy, FA twice as SUM. Was sceptical but bought small holding.

Jasemc
02-10-2013, 04:03 PM
On of the brokers IRG recommends buy, FA twice as SUM. Was sceptical but bought small holding.
Any reason for sp fall toaday? Is the pending Aussie listing bad?

gv1
02-10-2013, 06:49 PM
Hi Jasemc,
Have no idea, its just some people may be want to get out, got the div.

troyvdh
02-10-2013, 07:54 PM
having been around a while.....can perhaps folk consider their investments in what ever ..as perhaps investments for a period extending more than just a day....correct me if I am wrong but its my believe that the NZ sharemarket is NOT MEANT TO BE A CASINO...where one places ones bet and is either a win or loss situation...man this drives me nuts....cheers

CJ
08-10-2013, 02:55 PM
Big unexplained dropped happened over the course of last week down to below $3.10.

Big unexplained rise today to over $3.20.

Any news I have missed over the past fortnight?

CJ
09-10-2013, 11:20 AM
And up again on big volume. I wonder if traders are buying in anticipation of the ASX listing. Maybe hedgies looking to transfer to the ASX exchange and hoping to catch the lack of liquidity at the start.

Bobcat.
09-10-2013, 11:32 AM
More likely a technical lift - MET has found good support at 305-307c twice before.

I saw it approaching, but got too checky with a bid just under $3.00 hoping for the seller to spike it lower before the rebound.

The Orchids will not be fully designed for a few months and occupancy/revenue is not expected for about 18 months. Competing with Ryman's Beachaven/Birkenhead facility under construction.

MET's book value to share price ratio makes it more appealing than RYM but more so at 3.06 than where it is now....onto other opportunities.

BC

CJ
15-10-2013, 09:47 AM
Price doing nicely the past week and the DRiP set at $3.10. Unfortunately I don't think I elected in.

CJ
16-10-2013, 01:57 PM
Lists on the ASX on 21 October - a compliance listing only so no new shares.

Will be interesting to see if it does anything to the price and if it gets any coverage over there.

Are we expecting a sell down once the shares held in escrow (from the merger) get released? Escrow ends on 23 Nov??

macduffy
16-10-2013, 03:08 PM
Lists on the ASX on 21 October - a compliance listing only so no new shares.

Will be interesting to see if it does anything to the price and if it gets any coverage over there.

Are we expecting a sell down once the shares held in escrow (from the merger) get released? Escrow ends on 23 Nov??


I guess that depends on the price at the time and whether or not KFP have other plans for the money. If they don't, will they see more upside in the SP than looking for an alternative investment?

Apologies for answering a question with another one!

:huh:

Joshuatree
21-10-2013, 10:27 AM
Goldman sachs been appointed to sell RVG's (FKP on ASX has re 22% of RVG) re 38% share of Metlife care. Shares are out of escrow re 20th Nov. Hoping for an opp at a discount.

CJ
21-10-2013, 10:56 AM
After being held down for the DRiP(???), it is now being pushed up to support RVG's offload at a small discount(???).

Either way, its hit 3.45 so I am happy.

CJ
21-10-2013, 11:47 AM
Goldman sachs been appointed to sell RVG's (FKP on ASX has re 22% of RVG) re 38% share of Metlife care. Shares are out of escrow re 20th Nov. Hoping for an opp at a discount.Further info: http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/d801ae34/retirement-villages-to-sell-37-7-percent-270-mln-stake-in-metlifecare-repay-debt.html

The price rise may be due to listing on the ASX today (knew it was happening but not the exact date). The ability to sell to both NZ and AU institutions should mean the discount is minimal.

Radler
21-10-2013, 04:38 PM
8% up today on huge volume
Looking good - especially as DRiP was $3.10

troyvdh
21-10-2013, 04:55 PM
giday..was that trade at 1706 just a simple mistake....

777
21-10-2013, 06:12 PM
giday..was that trade at 1706 just a simple mistake....

Done at the weighted average at time of order. Closing WA 349.59. Lot of sales at close of 360 would have brought it up to that figure.

Jasemc
21-10-2013, 06:24 PM
Would infratil buy the rvg shares since they have canned their share buy back?

MACX
22-10-2013, 08:07 PM
On the money Jasemc, check out today's AFR article suggesting both Infratil and Todd's are interested parties in this stake.

CJ
24-10-2013, 10:53 AM
On the money Jasemc, check out today's AFR article suggesting both Infratil and Todd's are interested parties in this stake.Interesting isn't it. If they buy more than 20%, they have to do a takeover offer for at least 50% dont they. Or we could see Infratil and Todds splitting the amount being offloaded so as not to trigger a takeover?

I also wonder if Australian retirement operators would be interested for a bit of locational diversity.

CJ
25-10-2013, 08:26 AM
Interesting isn't it. If they buy more than 20%, they have to do a takeover offer for at least 50% dont they. Or we could see Infratil and Todds splitting the amount being offloaded so as not to trigger a takeover?So IFT is buying 19.9%.

All 37% is being sold at $3.58 which is a 8.5% premium to the 30 day VWAP but below the current MV.

Will be interesting to see who takes up the other 17% - assume it will just be insto's.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/IFT/announcements/242862

CJ
25-10-2013, 08:29 AM
Will be interesting to see who takes up the other 17% - assume it will just be insto's.Got that Wrong - its the superfund. I wonder why I didn't think of that.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/828007c1/infratil-nz-super-fund-nab-nearly-40-percent-of-metlifecare.html

CJ
25-10-2013, 09:29 AM
So CJ what do you thing about this share - its up 30% in the past month.

CJ: I think it is a great share.

Disc: I'm so ronery
4945
4944

Radler
25-10-2013, 09:36 AM
i'm loving all the gains - especially another 8% today

CJ
25-10-2013, 09:54 AM
i'm loving all the gains - especially another 8% todayI also think IFT experience should help the MET Board. I dont think IFT will settle for only 200 units per year so expect them to demand (and help) them increase this.

NZSilver
25-10-2013, 11:49 AM
Forced to sell today to pay for PEB, I think there is huge potential here for MET. Just the beginning!

Snow Leopard
25-10-2013, 03:17 PM
So CJ what do you thing about this share - its up 30% in the past month.

CJ: I think it is a great share.

Disc: I'm so ronery

Being 'ronery' is probably less worrying then reminiscing over the fact one saw Team America - World Police at a cinema at Yerba Beuna Gardens in San Francisco. (I saw Matrix Reloaded & Matrix Revolutions there as well).

I did a bit of drum beating in April (when I started buying in) and May about how I thought the company was a changing for the better and would start building up the building program.

So happy to see it cross the $4 mark - but this is still less than half of what I think it will be worth in a few years.

Perhaps I should sell some of my vastly over-priced RYM and buy some vastly under-priced MET?

Do your own, of course!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiget

CJ
25-10-2013, 03:23 PM
I did a bit of drum beating in April (when I started buying in) and May about how I thought the company was a changing for the better and would start building up the building program.Thanks PT. IFT should be a very supportive shareholder on these two points.

I topped up in the SPP and was going to sell down at some point but I might hold on to see if they can start improving.

troyvdh
25-10-2013, 06:50 PM
giday ...what interests me about this whole revaluation issue about SUM MET RYM....is like how can folk who begin to have an interest in the SM...react when in general brokers who they will approach in the first occasion (seated or clothed expensively no doubt) and are given the usual drivel (like there is a secret here)...re investing...and are given advice/direction...of any said shares....Like if they have the answer !!!!!!

Like I have stated in the past...if folk are asking questions about where to invest their money.../....PLEASE ask the said person ...how much money THEY personally have invested.

CJ
27-10-2013, 10:39 AM
Article (Brokers view) on MET written before last weeks announcement outlining the potential:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9326059/A-Brokers-View-Metlifecare

And an article from the Herald:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11146562

Lizard
27-10-2013, 06:34 PM
I haven't looked at MET for a while, but happened to see the FKP announcement where they proudly stated that the shares had been sold for above NAV.... and I thought "you have got to be kidding! OF COURSE they should be selling above NAV in this industry!!"

Definitely seems worth a closer look...

silu
06-11-2013, 10:17 AM
Bought my initial parcel at 4.07 yesterday together with SUM. I believe that MET can be a real player with the right management and things are starting to happen on that front.

silu
08-11-2013, 10:56 AM
The MET sellers club is a lonely place at the moment ;)

gv1
08-11-2013, 11:24 AM
caught RYM fever, thats all.

silu
08-11-2013, 12:10 PM
What's with the puny amounts in the sell column?
448 1 3
449 1 3
452 1 3
454 1 82
463 1 89
464 1 83

Snow Leopard
09-11-2013, 08:54 PM
From a NBR article (http://New Zealand shares rose, led by retirement developer and operator Metlifecare and milk processor Synlait after MSCI announced the stocks be added to its Global Small Cap Indices at the close of Nov. 26, increasing demand for the stock by professional investors who track the global benchmark.)

"New Zealand shares rose, led by retirement developer and operator Metlifecare and milk processor Synlait after MSCI announced the stocks be added to its Global Small Cap Indices at the close of Nov. 26, increasing demand for the stock by professional investors who track the global benchmark."

And I assumed that someone had finally paid attention to my posts from six months ago!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

CJ
10-11-2013, 08:33 AM
From a NBR article (http://New Zealand shares rose, led by retirement developer and operator Metlifecare and milk processor Synlait after MSCI announced the stocks be added to its Global Small Cap Indices at the close of Nov. 26, increasing demand for the stock by professional investors who track the global benchmark.)

"New Zealand shares rose, led by retirement developer and operator Metlifecare and milk processor Synlait after MSCI announced the stocks be added to its Global Small Cap Indices at the close of Nov. 26, increasing demand for the stock by professional investors who track the global benchmark."

And I assumed that someone had finally paid attention to my posts from six months ago!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Talk about imperfect info. Those buying knew, those selling probably didn't. This sort of crap is annoying.

Goldstein
25-11-2013, 04:02 PM
Anyone know why 0.5b turnover on MET today?

Harvey Specter
25-11-2013, 04:04 PM
Anyone know why 0.5b turnover on MET today?I assume it was settlement of the transaction where IFT and the Superfund each took a 20% interest. There was a few SSH on this so didn't investigate further.

Goldstein
25-11-2013, 04:06 PM
I assume it was settlement of the transaction where IFT and the Superfund each took a 20% interest. There was a few SSH on this so didn't investigate further.

Ah, the SSH notices didn't come through on my app. Ta HS.

troyvdh
12-12-2013, 04:38 PM
Perhaps someone heard some negative news today....and no Im not paranoid

couta1
12-12-2013, 04:55 PM
Perhaps someone heard some negative news today....and no Im not paranoid
No negative news just drifting back down to where it should be some may remember I put a value of around $3.90 on this a while back needs to go to $3.70 or below before I'd look a t buying it,short on proven performance IMHO

Harvey Specter
12-12-2013, 05:07 PM
Wow. 7% swing between MET and RYM. Definitely not moving as a sector

Goldstein
12-12-2013, 05:24 PM
The volume wasn't huge on MET, so I'm not sure I'd read a lot into it - especially not just before the end of the year.

couta1
12-12-2013, 05:35 PM
The volume wasn't huge on MET, so I'm not sure I'd read a lot into it - especially not just before the end of the year.
Do you guys believe that Met is worth over $4 (Hit $4.55) while Sum sits at around $3.20. ?

Goldstein
12-12-2013, 06:04 PM
Some numbers lifted off the ASB site

------ NTA Yield P/E
RYM 157.26 1.38% 27.25
MET 346.24 0.77% 5.93
SUM 119.02 0.79% 31.48

An offshore investor would certainly prefer the dividend yield of Ryman. They would probably see MET as the next cab of the rank in the sector in terms of risk.

SUM has good management and is in a real growth phase and that is why I have invested in them.

couta1
12-12-2013, 06:43 PM
Some numbers lifted off the ASB site

------ NTA Yield P/E
RYM 157.26 1.38% 27.25
MET 346.24 0.77% 5.93
SUM 119.02 0.79% 31.48

An offshore investor would certainly prefer the dividend yield of Ryman. They would probably see MET as the next cab of the rank in the sector in terms of risk.

SUM has good management and is in a real growth phase and that is why I have invested in them.
Ditto on your reason to invest comment but I see Met as the riskiest of the 3 due to its yet to prove itself management, its older buildings which will require more maintenance sooner and at this point it's continuum of care model being behind the other two.

Goldstein
12-12-2013, 07:52 PM
Ditto on your reason to invest comment but I see Met as the riskiest of the 3 due to its yet to prove itself management, its older buildings which will require more maintenance sooner and at this point it's continuum of care model being behind the other two.

My point is that overseas investors (Japanese housewives and Swedish dentists apparently) may just be looking at the numbers.

couta1
12-12-2013, 08:09 PM
My point is that overseas investors (Japanese housewives and Swedish dentists apparently) may just be looking at the numbers.
Good for us and others in the know until the Market wakes up to Sum, hopefully that's sometime next year

Wolf
12-12-2013, 10:39 PM
I've recently been looking at the retirement industry, looking into the fundamentals of the companys trying to getting a picture of where various companys are heading.
So far i've just been through the annual reports i can get of the websites. Looking at MET over the last 7 years earnings per share are all over the show as well as dividends. I tried going back further but decided it wasn't work the hassle as the annual reports made it hard to find Net Profit/earnings per share/dps etc and what i did find seemed to correlate with the last seven years.

What is interesting is that Ryman has really nice annual reports that are investor friendly, Summerset pretty good, not as good as rymans, metlifecare horrible. Seem's to be inline with how each company peforms.



MET
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013


EPS
116.3
60.7
120.3
55.1
17
104.1
65.8












DPS
22
19
0
0
0
0
3


RATIO
19%
32%




5%



Their earnings per share/ dps are all over show. Trying to put a value on it is pretty hard. While the retirement market is increasing so you would think MET earnings would increase as well i am not so sure as Summerset and Ryman have better retirement homes and may very well steal their market share and earnings could very well possibly decrease.

Free cash flow may be a more valid method for finding a value for MET?

Does anyone have a valuation on MET and is willing to share how they arrive at it?

silu
13-12-2013, 03:06 PM
If we could have just better quality on the board. Hang on......

DIRECTOR APPOINTMENTS & CONFIRMATIONS

Following the recent change in shareholding, retirement village and aged care
provider Metlifecare Limited (NZX: MET; ASX: MEQ) is pleased to announce the
appointment of Kevin Baker, William Smales and Carolyn Steele as directors.

Kevin is the Chief Financial Officer for Infratil Ltd and its manager, H.R.L
Morrison & Co Limited. He is the Chairman of NZ Bus and a director of
Infratil Energy Australia and Lumo Energy.

William is a Senior Executive and Investment Director at H.R.L. Morrison & Co
Limited. He has extensive investment experience across a number of industry
sectors and previously spent seven years with The Carlyle Group.

Carolyn is currently the Portfolio Manager, Direct Investments for the New
Zealand Superannuation Fund. She has substantial experience in capital
markets, mergers & acquisitions and investment management. Carolyn is an
alternate director at Datacom Group Limited.

Snow Leopard
20-12-2013, 12:36 PM
Rest home chains face legal battle over pay (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11175718)

Mentions Metlifecare

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

macduffy
20-12-2013, 04:59 PM
I realise there's a lot of cynicism where brokers' research and recommendations are concerned - but here's Macquaries' recent take on MET, with some comparative comment on the big opposition, RYM and SUM.


http://www.macquarie.com.au/dafiles/Internet/mgl/au/apps/retail-newsletter/docs/2013-12/METNZ161213ESSe.pdf?cid=&spMailingID=7595880&spUserID=NzgwMDI1MDk1NjIS1&spJobID=106299599&spReportId=MTA2Mjk5NTk5S0

Comments/alternative views sought - I hold them all!

couta1
20-12-2013, 06:42 PM
I realise there's a lot of cynicism where brokers' research and recommendations are concerned - but here's Macquaries' recent take on MET, with some comparative comment on the big opposition, RYM and SUM.


http://www.macquarie.com.au/dafiles/Internet/mgl/au/apps/retail-newsletter/docs/2013-12/ METNZ161213ESSe.pdf? cid=&spMailingID=7595880&spUserID=NzgwMDI1MDk1NjIS1&spJobID=106299599&spReportId=MTA2Mjk5NTk5S0 (http://www.macquarie.com.au/dafiles/Internet/mgl/au/apps/retail-newsletter/docs/2013-12/METNZ161213ESSe.pdf?cid=&spMailingID=7595880&spUserID=NzgwMDI1MDk1NjIS1&spJobID=106299599&spReportId=MTA2Mjk5NTk5S0)

Comments/alternative views sought - I hold them all!
Target price for Met $4.65 and $4.50 for Sum ,Sum has bigger and better geographically spread landbank not solely exposed to Auckland market methinks Sum better buying at the moment

Joshuatree
25-01-2014, 06:41 PM
According to the ASX there hasn't been one trade on the ASX since MET listed in Oct?

winner69
25-01-2014, 07:14 PM
According to the ASX there hasn't been one trade on the ASX since MET listed in Oct?

and SNZ has had 3 small ones I think

Lizard
26-01-2014, 11:16 AM
I realise there's a lot of cynicism where brokers' research and recommendations are concerned - but here's Macquaries' recent take on MET, with some comparative comment on the big opposition, RYM and SUM.


http://www.macquarie.com.au/dafiles/Internet/mgl/au/apps/retail-newsletter/docs/2013-12/METNZ161213ESSe.pdf?cid=&spMailingID=7595880&spUserID=NzgwMDI1MDk1NjIS1&spJobID=106299599&spReportId=MTA2Mjk5NTk5S0

Comments/alternative views sought - I hold them all!

From the report:


In our opinion, there are a number of strong synergies between retirement units and care beds and so integrated villages are a significantly more attractive proposition than villages without care (for instance, better occupancy and younger average entry age).

I find this comment interesting:
1. Care beds - my understanding was that these were relatively low margin and therefore a less attractive use of capex. Their financial value seemed to be mainly as a marketing tool in attracting residents who want greater certainty about end of life care. Has this changed? i.e. IF you can fill the retirement units without adding care beds, why wouldn't you avoid financing these?? (MET not actually showing worse occupancy at this point than RYM.)

2. Entry age - I would have thought Younger is not Better! The (financial) perfect ideal would seem to me to be if the residents stayed just long enough to finish paying the amenities fee in full - from memory, about 4 years?

I think they discard Price/Book too easily. We are talking a four-fold difference between MET to RYM and two-fold MET to SUM. That's a big value arbitrage hinging on management quality and decision making. Sure, MET has not exactly performed to date on a relative basis, but with a re-invigorated board and RYM/SUM providing a benchmark, MET management must surely have some easy gains to make in closing the gap?

couta1
26-01-2014, 12:20 PM
Lizard there are many reasons why the continuum of care model is the way to go but here are a few points to consider,care centers are important because they are like a major railway station in this case residents can move from a rest home to hospital to dementia levels without leaving the facility,people coming into the rest home at times end up purchasing a serviced apartment,serviced apartment and standard apartment people can move to the care center without going elsewhere,people from the community come into the Resthome or hospital for respite care,dementia care is becoming more of a need so I've seen people in apartments with dementia move into the dementia unit while their spouse continues to live in the apartment once again no one has to leave and find a new complex splitting a couple up in this case,these are just a few reasons why the continuum of care model is actually a business increasing and marketing model and Met is seeing this now and beggining to move more in that direction like Rym and Sum

Snow Leopard
28-02-2014, 03:35 PM
Metlifecare half year results are out and in themselves are terribly underwhelming.

There is a 1.25c unimputed dividend.

But as they make little profit on the day to day stuff ($1.3M) and 'settling' only 19 new units, the bulk of the profit is from a 1.4% increase in the value of the $1.8 Billion of retirement properties.

Still it is all about the future and they are still aiming for their 200+ units a year by 2015. This is not a great target given their size but we hold in the hope that they will aim for bigger things in the longer term.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Hold MET (& RYM & SUM).

BlackPeter
28-02-2014, 03:40 PM
half year results are out: revenue from ordinary activities up 6.1%, though total revenue down 47% (due to merger gains now "expired"), quite "quiet" sales activity (only 19 new units, and 172 resell - both down from previous half year result); however reasonable development pipeline (200 units plus pa from 2015); "renewed" board (with IFT moved in as corner stone share holder and NZ Super buying in); Ah, yes - and divi increased from 1 cts to 1.25 cts / share.

Overall not exciting, but feels they are moving from just buying old stuff to developing new ... cautiously optimistic; discl: holding ...

Harvey Specter
28-02-2014, 04:35 PM
Overall not exciting, but feels they are moving from just buying old stuff to developing new ... cautiously optimistic; discl: holding ...
There was the comment that they will be bringing development in house (RYM model) which once they get sorted, hopefully they will increase build rate.

silu
28-02-2014, 05:21 PM
New management will sort the growth problem out IMO.

discl. hold MET & SUM

winner69
11-03-2014, 04:06 PM
Is today's announcement an earnings downgrade

H1 was up from 8.6m to 15.3m but full year is only going to be 2m to 6m up on last year

Means H2 is down

Have I done the quick sums right

Surely the retirement sector profit bubble hasn't burst big time

winner69
11-03-2014, 04:08 PM
This what the Ann said

METLIFECARE FY 2014 EARNINGS GUIDANCE

Metlifecare (NZX: MET; ASX: MEQ) has recently reported its half year results for the period to 31 December 2013. The half year results included reporting an underlying profit of $15.3 million (footnote 1). Metlifecare advises, based on its trading performance to 31 December 2013 and assuming a continuation of these recent trading trends for the next six months, underlying profit guidance of between $34 million and $38 million for the year to 30 June 2014.

Bjauck
11-03-2014, 04:52 PM
I am not sure what is going on with the MET price. Its 5.50pm yet on the DB site it seems as though MET is still in pre-close price matching phase. Last trade $4.10 at 16.19...price match 4.21 ??

winner69
11-03-2014, 07:44 PM
Is today's announcement an earnings downgrade

H1 was up from 8.6m to 15.3m but full year is only going to be 2m to 6m up on last year

Means H2 is down

Have I done the quick sums right

Surely the retirement sector profit bubble hasn't burst big time

Rechecked things

Lower end guidance of 34m is 6% up on FY 13 - but H2 14 will be down 20% on last year

Top end numbers are 19% for FY and minus 3% for HY

Hard to read what al this means, esp when underlying profit is meant to be the one to use and excludes all the funny stuff.

Maybe H2 13 of 23.4m wasn't a real number (underlying that is) and contained some stuff that is not going to happen again. It was a lot higher than H114 and is not being repeated again this year.

All up and down and the announcement was all shot and sweet and late in the day - obviously didn't want to explain things too much.

That'll just make people speculate. Like me who will always take the lower end of guidance and st means second half profits are down 20% which is shocking

Hope not a new trend in the sector

couta1
11-03-2014, 07:57 PM
Ditto on your reason to invest comment but I see Met as the riskiest of the 3 due to its yet to prove itself management, its older buildings which will require more maintenance sooner and at this point it's continuum of care model being behind the other two.
An earlier post of mine,I find the gap between Met and Sums share price strange perhaps they will be meeting each other in the not to distant future

winner69
11-03-2014, 08:11 PM
I obviously just don't get it - it's all good news ....whoopee ......bugger I don't hold but good news should in the sector is good an it will help SUM and RYM


Metlifecare sees annual earnings growth of up to 18 percent

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/5f8d54d5/metlifecare-sees-annual-earnings-growth-of-up-to-18-percent.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Metlifecare+sees+annual+earnings+grow th+of+up+to+18+percent&utm_content=Metlifecare+sees+annual+earnings+growt h+of+up+to+18+percent+CID_5a6a7a2e5c6d014c3d7a1973 d8502c50&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle5f8d54d5metlif ecare-sees-annual-earnings-growth-of-up-to-18-percenthtml

Snow Leopard
11-03-2014, 11:40 PM
I obviously just don't get it - it's all good news ....whoopee ......bugger I don't hold but good news should in the sector is good an it will help SUM and RYM

Metlifecare sees annual earnings growth of up to 18 percent



Article originates with businessdesk.co.nz and just goes to show that some journalism is unadulterated rubbish.

I would also take issue with MET and their use of selective numbers from the accounts to make up the prior 'underlying profit'. Go read the actual accounts and make your own decisions.

But it all boils down to this: MET currently do not have many new units to sell and that really does limit their profit.

Hopefully this year is the bottom and it is up from there.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Harvey Specter
12-03-2014, 06:07 AM
But it all boils down to this: MET currently do not have many new units to sell and that really does limit their profit.
i expect his to change. The Glenfield purchase is probably one of the most recent land purchases of the big three yet hey have already broken ground and selling in the local mall.

Expect the build rate to increase once IFT sorts it management.

winner69
12-03-2014, 07:22 AM
Earning growth slows for Metlifecare but new villages will underpin future strong growth

Metlifecare reported yesterday an "underlying profit guidance of between $34 million and $38 million for the year to 30 June 2014." This is an 18% increase on the previous year.

Half year to December 2013 underlying profit increased was significantly up from $8.6m the prior year to $15.3m. The latest guidance signals lower growth in the second half of the year.

Market analyst P Tiger attributes this to Metlifecare currently not having many new units to sell.

Respected market commentator and renowned expert on the retirement sector Harvey Spectre says this is only a temporary lull expects "their build rate to significantly increase from here." Spectre reports that the "new Glenfield development is one of the biggest recent developments in the sector and work has already started and sales pitches are underway."

Metlifecare share price closed unchanged at $4.10 yesterday. Consensus market opinion is that the retirement sector will continue to deliver strong gains fo share holders with the Metlifecare shareprice targeted to be over $6.00 next year

noodles
12-03-2014, 08:48 AM
Earning growth slows for Metlifecare but new villages will underpin future strong growth

Metlifecare reported yesterday an "underlying profit guidance of between $34 million and $38 million for the year to 30 June 2014." This is an 18% increase on the previous year.


Nice!

You missed the following:
"MET sits on a modest pe of just 24 times forecasted FY14 earnings and pays a healthy dividend of just under 1%."

Beagle
12-03-2014, 08:58 AM
Is it a modest PE given their patchy track record and more limited growth profile than SUM ?

Harvey Specter
12-03-2014, 09:00 AM
Earning growth slows for Metlifecare but new villages will underpin future strong growth

Metlifecare reported yesterday an "underlying profit guidance of between $34 million and $38 million for the year to 30 June 2014." This is an 18% increase on the previous year.

Half year to December 2013 underlying profit increased was significantly up from $8.6m the prior year to $15.3m. The latest guidance signals lower growth in the second half of the year.

Market analyst P Tiger attributes this to Metlifecare currently not having many new units to sell.

Respected market commentator and renowned expert on the retirement sector Harvey Spectre says this is only a temporary lull expects "their build rate to significantly increase from here." Spectre reports that the "new Glenfield development is one of the biggest recent developments in the sector and work has already started and sales pitches are underway."

Metlifecare share price closed unchanged at $4.10 yesterday. Consensus market opinion is that the retirement sector will continue to deliver strong gains fo share holders with the Metlifecare shareprice targeted to be over $6.00 next yearLazy journalism again - you got my name wrong!

noodles
12-03-2014, 09:11 AM
Is it a modest PE given their patchy track record and more limited growth profile than SUM ?

You can replace the "modest" and "healthly" with whatever you like. "Eye-watering" and "measly" come to mind.

Of course, everyone has a crush on SUM. She is far more attractive. PE's don't really matter for that stock:)

ps. I'm just a bitter because I've missed all the gains as I don't get it.

Joshuatree
10-04-2014, 01:38 PM
Watching this closely, still int in an entry. S/p is not looking good and if it doesn't bounce soon looks (to my bad T/A eye) like its about to fall through the floor!

Joshuatree
14-04-2014, 11:12 AM
$3.90 now last seen re dec/jan. A down trend looks imminent. Any longterm holders out there?

BlackPeter
15-04-2014, 11:18 AM
$3.90 now last seen re dec/jan. A down trend looks imminent. Any longterm holders out there?

Some quite big parcels going through yesterday - and this seemed to have depressed the price. Started to creep up again after the 200k parcel (200k shares, not dollars) early pm and looks like it continues to recover today. Not sure who of the big holders was in need for money (and whether they need more ...), but not panicking yet. Discl: holding and so far intend to keep it that way.

Joshuatree
15-04-2014, 12:29 PM
Im looking at a poss turnaround story . The dec announcement has bought some new directors with skillsets hopefully to do this with a consequent kangaroo s/p rerating. It won't happen overnight or maybe they will fail worth more research.

DIRECTOR APPOINTMENTS & CONFIRMATIONSFollowing the recent change in shareholding, retirement village and aged care provider Metlifecare Limited (NZX: MET; ASX: MEQ) is pleased to announce the appointment of Kevin Baker, William Smales and Carolyn Steele as directors.
Kevin is the Chief Financial Officer for Infratil Ltd and its manager, H.R.L Morrison & Co Limited. He is the Chairman of NZ Bus and a director of Infratil Energy Australia and Lumo Energy.
William is a Senior Executive and Investment Director at H.R.L. Morrison & Co Limited. He has extensive investment experience across a number of industry sectors and previously spent seven years with The Carlyle Group.
Carolyn is currently the Portfolio Manager, Direct Investments for the New Zealand Superannuation Fund. She has substantial experience in capital markets, mergers & acquisitions and investment management. Carolyn is an alternate director at Datacom Group Limited.
The Board has also confirmed the independence of the Chairman, Peter Brown, as defined by NZX Listing Rule 1.6.1.
Metlifecare’s Managing Director Alan Edwards has relinquished his seat on the Board to separate the functions of the Board from management. Mr Edwards will continue to lead the Executive Team in his role as the Chief Executive Officer.
The Chairman of Metlifecare, Mr Peter Brown, commented: “Metlifecare is in an exciting stage of growth with a number of developments in the pipeline. We are delighted to welcome Kevin, William and Carolyn to the Board. Between them they hold valuable expertise in the financial, property and investment sectors and will bring complementary skills to the Board as we continue our growth strategy”.
The Metlifecare Board now consists of four independent directors and three non-independent directors.
ENDSnd story here. From dec 13 announcement

Joshuatree
15-04-2014, 12:55 PM
May well be but you are paying a much higher multiple for that growth.

couta1
15-04-2014, 01:03 PM
the maths works very well IMHO.

SUM's underlying earnings will soon overtake MET even though its market cap is (currently) lower. And, SUM's stock of villages has much greater marketability with better continuum of care. MET's build rate is terrible, and the recent changes in governance will take ages to have any material impact. Meanwhile, 2/3rds of MET's villages have no care and hence have limited market appeal.
Stick with Sum NewGuy,I'm predicting that their shares prices will be very close to each other in a years time,last year Met went from $3.06 to around $4.63 in a short space of time on no results other than some new shareholders,way overcooked IMO

Joshuatree
15-04-2014, 01:13 PM
Met is def a long term story i agree there.

psychic
15-04-2014, 02:15 PM
the maths works very well IMHO.

SUM's underlying earnings will soon overtake MET even though its market cap is (currently) lower. And, SUM's stock of villages has much greater marketability with better continuum of care. MET's build rate is terrible, and the recent changes in governance will take ages to have any material impact. Meanwhile, 2/3rds of MET's villages have no care and hence have limited market appeal.

Good to read your thoughts NewGuy as have been becoming a little grumpy with MET's SP of late
Right or wrong, I took a smaller position (relative to SUM) in MET because I liked the sector and wanted to increase investment without tying it down to one operator, Ryman just seemed too expensive to me at the time
My research was not very thorough but PE at 13 c/f sum 21 and RYM 28, EPS .30 against .16 and .29, but NTA at $3.56 compared to $1.30 and $1.57 gave an impressive price to book of 1.1x compared to 2.65 for SUM and 5.25 for RYM

I understood that they had not historically completed a lot of development but had been selling down excess stock from acquisitions. But they have started and have a good land bank so are cutting their teeth perhaps. Further, I read somewhere that they were increasing the ratio of care bed facilities to those villages without this important facility. METs op costs were also considered higher per bed and there ws talk of cost savings. I liked the large exposure to the Auckland market also.

So I bought a few when MET and SUM's SP were seemingly tied at the hip, and was very pleased when it rocked up with the change in SSH but as I say, have watched this decline since. I agree that SUM rings more bells but don't know if I can dismiss the potential of MET yet. Eager to read more comments, thanks

psychic
15-04-2014, 03:05 PM
Cheers. But then if it MET had twice the growth, I guess its SP would be significantly higher too. Further, are we sure SUM are selling all they are buliding?
If the answer was simply to go out there and build I guess they would be doing that right? Do they maybe have lower occupancy rates and lack demand? Do you think SUM's build rate is sustainable and doubt MET could achieve more? Operationally I understood the three had quite similar charges and fee structures.

No issue with your pref - I'm 4:1 on SUM but as I say, don't know its a dead horse..

couta1
15-04-2014, 03:51 PM
p.s. I think MET just missed the boat strategically and tried to growth via acquisition rather than development. Fatal mistake.
And they still insist on charging residents for capital losses unlike Sum and Rym

Bjauck
16-04-2014, 07:59 AM
We are only about 6 months into the Infratil/Superfund buy in. As with Shell/Z I am imagining they had a plan/vision for MET when they bought their stake. Not all IFT's purchases pay off but with the support of Superfund, they had two heads checking over the strategy. Patience may be needed to see a turn around for MET.

Snow Leopard
28-04-2014, 10:59 AM
Outside of the conversation mill and Metlifecare quietly rises...

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

couta1
28-04-2014, 05:35 PM
Outside of the conversation mill and Metlifecare quietly rises...

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Maybe the Tiger has sprung upon his prey too soon,down 2% on big volume,oh well there's always Sum aye:cool:

BlackPeter
29-04-2014, 09:28 AM
good to hear the planned build rate is on track ..

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/193031.pdf

SimonHouse
29-04-2014, 10:18 AM
Wasn't the Poynton the village they've struggled to sell for the last 4-5 years?

Harvey Specter
29-04-2014, 10:31 AM
Wasn't the Poynton the village they've struggled to sell for the last 4-5 years?It is a pretty unappealing site - right on a major intersection and not 'really' in Takapuna which everyone assocates with the beach - quite a mobility scooter ride away.

BlackPeter
29-04-2014, 10:33 AM
what because they're FINALLY completing the final stage of an existing village? That only accounts for 1/3rd their target build rate, which itself is a joke

hmm - you sound quite angry ... did you loose money with them?

I guess they came from a different business model (buying existing villages instead of building new ones) and just recently changed ownership, board composition and build targets. Sure - they didn't complete their 2015 promises in 2014, but I still see this as a positive announcement. Why not cut them a bit slack until they had a chance to prove what they promised?

Harvey Specter
29-04-2014, 10:59 AM
No, actually I made over $50k on them before I sold my holding down completely. I just think they're a pretty **** company compared to the other two. They need to reach a build rate of 500 per annum within a year or two to keep up with Summerset's likely earnings growth.What do you think IFT and SuperFunds plan for them is? My guess it is to increase the build rate quickly.

Snow Leopard
30-04-2014, 06:03 PM
Outside of the conversation mill and Metlifecare quietly rises...

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


Maybe the Tiger has sprung upon his prey too soon,down 2% on big volume,oh well there's always Sum aye:cool:

Maybe not :p

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

DISC: some MET, some RYM & also some SUM

Joshuatree
07-05-2014, 08:39 PM
MET still quietly rising nicely. One year return is re 18% compared with SUM, 11.75%.

couta1
07-05-2014, 08:50 PM
MET still quietly rising nicely. One year return is re 18% compared with SUM, 11.75%.
That may be true over the last year however my Sum holding is showing an 11% increase since last November indicating that Sum has exceeded Mets gains over the last 6 months and the winds have changed.

Joshuatree
07-05-2014, 09:58 PM
Year to date according to NZX, MET just ahead of SUM return wise but not much in it.

Snow Leopard
08-05-2014, 11:00 AM
That may be true over the last year however my Sum holding is showing an 11% increase since last November indicating that Sum has exceeded Mets gains over the last 6 months and the winds have changed.

That may be true over the 6 months however my MET holding is showing an 40% increase since last October (7-Oct-13 to 7-May-14) indicating that MET has exceeded Sums gains over the last 7 months and we can all cherry pick figures.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

psychic
23-05-2014, 07:50 AM
Date: 23 May 2014
Media Release

METLIFECARE LIFTS UNDERLYING PROFIT GUIDANCE

Metlifecare (NZX: MET; ASX: MEQ) advises that its underlying profit1 guidance for the year ending 30 June 2014 is increased to a range of $43 million to $46 million, from its previous guidance of $34 million to $38 million.

The lift in underlying profit guidance results from stronger settlements activity at The Poynton Stage 3 and higher capital gains and deferred membership fee income from resales activity. The underlying profit earnings guidance is based on Metlifecare’s trading performance to 30 April 2014 and assumes a continuation of these recent trading trends for the next two months to 30 June 2014.

Development is underway at three villages on Auckland’s North Shore. Stages 1 and 2 at The Orchards in Glenfield, collectively 54 apartments and 36 hospital beds, are now under construction, with considerable interest shown in both stages. At Metlifecare’s newest retirement village, Greenwich Gardens in Unsworth Heights, earthworks are nearing completion. The final stage of construction, comprising 62 apartments, at The Poynton is also underway.

With 14 out of a total of 25 villages in the Auckland area, Metlifecare is well positioned for growing retirement village demand in the region.

ENDS

psychic
23-05-2014, 07:51 AM
PT did say MET doing ok....

silu
23-05-2014, 09:04 AM
Nice. First step of the turnaround and looking to a nice little re-rating.

Joshuatree
23-05-2014, 09:34 AM
yes, but MET is still a troubled company with a lot of work to do.

Looks like its working pretty well:p

Joshuatree
23-05-2014, 11:24 AM
6% jump today NICEEE

psychic
23-05-2014, 11:35 AM
did you notice that MET is "well positioned"?

Joshuatree
23-05-2014, 03:32 PM
Oh no there are two of you or are you psychic/sidekick? :) MET 31.45% Year to date is outperforming RYM 27.5% and SUM 17.06%

troyvdh
23-05-2014, 06:05 PM
Just an observation ...folk like New Guy have slammed MET ..often...and I believe that an institution(s) in recent times have downgraded METs future ability to perform and justify its shareprice ...what are simple folk like me to make of all this...is it mere humbug...hidden agendas ....or just the free flow of opinion.
That's what makes a free market I suppose.

New Guy may be proven right ...,.,.a comment now perhaps...cheers

psychic
24-05-2014, 07:00 PM
Just an observation ...folk like New Guy have slammed MET ..often...and I believe that an institution(s) in recent times have downgraded METs future ability to perform and justify its shareprice ...what are simple folk like me to make of all this...is it mere humbug...hidden agendas ....or just the free flow of opinion.
That's what makes a free market I suppose.

New Guy may be proven right ...,.,.a comment now perhaps...cheers

NOOOOOO - don't get New Guy back to rain on our parade!

Here is a free bit of opinion from Macquarie - right or wrong it may be useful to you trovvdh.

http://www.macquarie.com.au/dafiles/Internet/mgl/au/apps/retail-newsletter/docs/2013-12/METNZ161213ESSe.pdf?cid=&spMailingID=7595880&spUserID=NzgwMDI1MDk1NjIS1&spJobID=106299599&spReportId=MTA2Mjk5NTk5S0

Hey JT, thanks for the PM. I replied but I don't see it in the sent folder so may have mucked that step up...
But cheers eh

Joshuatree
26-05-2014, 10:38 AM
Correction it is 1 year return not YTD . so as of today

MET up 31.85%

RYM up 28.46%

SUM up 17.73% source NZX

couta1
26-05-2014, 04:58 PM
Also, troy - my issues are that (i) MET's current portfolio of villages is not great (e.g. they have very little care facilities), (ii) their build rate is very low compared to their stock of existing villages. Together, these limit future potential compared to smaller, more nimble firms like SUM (which is growing very rapidly in relative terms).

Also, SUM has been voted best operator for like 5 years in a row. Clearly they are doing something right. MET, conversely, just appears like an out of date also-ran. Sure, they've got new governance now, but there's a lot of baggage already hitched to that cart, not least their mediocre portfolio.
Spot on NewGuy:cool:

Bjauck
26-05-2014, 05:01 PM
that macquarie report was one of the things that helped make my decision to ditch MET. It basically says that SUM is a better buy. For instance, one of its key conclusions is "Metlifecare and Summerset have a similar P/E, but Summerset has a significantly higher growth rate for the next five years"

You guys should try modelling the impact of build rate on future value. Its pretty amazing.

It was interesting to read the Macquarie research note written in December 2013. They rated MET, RYM and SUM as outperform with 12 month target prices of $4.65, $7.50 and $4.50 respectively. So MET is getting close to the target, RYM well north and SUM well south.

Joshuatree
26-05-2014, 05:04 PM
Lest we remember ,Met over 1 year has been superior thats the only authentic cold hard fact atm

Joshuatree
05-06-2014, 12:07 PM
Craigs have upgraded to a BUY , t/p $5.23

Harvey Specter
05-06-2014, 12:22 PM
Craigs have upgraded to a BUY , t/p $5.23Thats a big increase from the current $4.47. I cant see their growth being that good. They have too many existing villages that are based on the old model to effect rapid change.

Maybe they have heard promising stories from IFT on what changes they will implement?

couta1
05-06-2014, 12:29 PM
Craigs have upgraded to a BUY , t/p $5.23
Yeah/Nah too dear IMO, Sum better buying at current prices but will see in a years time I guess, that price seems OTT when you consider their current build rate and that price is where Ryman was at just over a year ago and their build rate was more than double what Mets rate is currently.