NZSX50 - Good News!

[alokdhir]

Hi
Its been a while since I last visited ST forum...I've only just now seen your post..
Obviously time has answered some of your questions.
I think at this stage the question has to be asked if this is a sucker rally or is it the real thing?
We don't really know the answer until it happens. We can guess or predict with models and be optimistic with these better looking fundamentals, yet the Buffett indicator shows Wall St (the elephant in the room) as still overvalued. Other variables can come into play and be problematic, such as America poking the stick up the dragons bum one to many times....

Anyway back to TA.

The Chart below shows this rally reaching an conjuntion area with primary elements in play..From a Chartist point of view this is very exciting.. Looking back through history Conjunction points have nearly always been seen as big turning events, so I'm watching this one with great interest.
To break through a conjunction area requires great buying pressure so watch out for the signs of positive sentiment with increased market activity.
This current NZX50 conjunction contain primary elements suggests if a breakthrough occurs it would be a Market Cycle reversal and the NZX50's status would change to Bull.
With the change to Bull an investor can change from rowing to sailing investment strategy with less risk/ more reward such as buy and hold strategy.

But for now, take care as we ain't quite there yet...

14068

Thanks Hoop ...U have shown now what exactly needs happen to change status ...ie two close over 4800 ...though u also appreciate that this rally managed to cross two initial resistance so has strength

But I feel this 4800 may be not crossed in this attempt and market may pull back to 4500-4600 to gather strength ...

Lets c what happens ...but markets always surprise most and reward few ...at this moment most are bearish so I think it will surprise on upside eventually ...maybe after pulling back first

[Baa_Baa]

The NZ50C is better illustrated with a Log Scale (https://invst.ly/yrz55), imo. The story about confluence is still the same, but with the 200EMA, 38.2% Fib retrace, and the recent horizontal price support as drawn. The over head down trend lines however are different, there is no solid green line, only the hatched green line (I draw it in red) exists on the log scale chart, which happens to cross at the 61.8% Fib retrace. Summary is still the same though, a few closes above 4800 and the 200EMA is bullish.

[Hoop]

The NZ50C one year chart is looking "dangerous" so the strategy should be to wait and see.

Last week the price rise momentum conked out right on the Bull/Bear resistance line (4800)..which suggests the bear is still in control of the market.

Monday will see the NZ50C index 4600 support tested. The Wall St animals have been restless and anxious all week (see VIX (https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui)), so Powell at Jackson's Hole reiterating what Monetary Policy has to do was enough to upset the Wall St animals to turn tail and run creating a bearish neck line break to a very reliable Head and Shoulder pattern on the S&P500 char (https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui)t.


I'm rather negative (pessimistic) short term..
This latest 15% rally that excited people is starting to look like a large sucker rally.

To gauge some sort of perspective on whats happening it pays to look at the wider picture..I have included a 13.75 year chart which outlines the NZ50C behaviour..
You can see the Fundamental chart behaviour was still in place when the Covid bear arrived and left. The Bull market resumed from where it left off...but now the long term chart clearly shows a fundamental change in Behaviour starting early 2022..

We can't invest referring to the last 13 years as a guide..Times have changed.

14100

14101

[alokdhir]

The NZ50C one year chart is looking "dangerous" so the strategy should be to wait and see.

Last week the price rise momentum conked out right on the Bull/Bear resistance line (4800)..which suggests the bear is still in control of the market.

Monday will see the NZ50C index 4600 support tested. The Wall St animals have been restless and anxious all week (see VIX (https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui)), so Powell at Jackson's Hole reiterating what Monetary Policy has to do was enough to upset the Wall St animals to turn tail and run creating a bearish neck line break to a very reliable Head and Shoulder pattern on the S&P500 char (https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui)t.


I'm rather negative (pessimistic) short term..
This latest 15% rally that excited people is starting to look like a large sucker rally.

To gauge some sort of perspective on whats happening it pays to look at the wider picture..I have included a 13.75 year chart which outlines the NZ50C behaviour..
You can see the Fundamental chart behaviour was still in place when the Covid bear arrived and left. The Bull market resumed from where it left off...but now the long term chart clearly shows a fundamental change in Behaviour starting early 2022..

We can't invest referring to the last 13 years as a guide..Times have changed.

14100

14101

Lets c where it takes support ...4600 or 4500 or goes to make new low

If it makes a higher bottom then range trade for a while ...imo thats the best outcome possible in the current scenario

But I will keep my mind open ...wont let media and people's preconceived perceptions colour my mind ....let the charts speak for themselves ...in hindsight we will know which way the worm turned then we will ascribe reasons for that happening

Initially it was not supposed to cross 4600 ...but it reached 4800 ....now its supposed to make new low as thats what is real Bear market ...letc c if that comes true

[Hoop]

Update of the 26th August Chart.
Hindsight:.... Bear Market correction (sucker rally) petered out at the 4800 major resistance thereby keeping its bear status.
...................The correction was a large one and created enough positive sentiment to persuade investors to re-enter the market.

Where to now ? :....When the index broke the 4600 support a target price of 4400 was set..That mean't the 4500 support was under threat. If 4500 support failed (which it did) there is no charted support at 4400 so it seems the 4200 comes into focus (the previous low point).
The NZ50C status is Bear so revisiting 4200 has to be considered as a real possibility. 4200 is a strong support level as it has a historic support point back in September 2018 (yes...the majority of long termers that don't beat the market, their capital is now back to what it was in beginning 2019...As we chartists say famously said on Sharetrader by my Mentor Phaedrus "The market giveth the market takes away".
Although 4200 area is strong there are good odds it may break.. It has to be remembered that the market is in a Bear Market Cycle and the DOW Theory (https://www.robertwcolby.com/dowtheory.html) is operating (lower highs lower lows with 3 stages).

Could 4200 be the bottom?
Who knows...but from my perception the odds of 4200 being the bottom is not good, investor sentiment although negative, it's near future is still too rosy (optimistic), (VIX needs to be 40+ for a period of time (https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui)) they are receiving shocks but there is no major panic yet so the DOW Theory monitors says No...My favourite (nearly 100% reliable) Duck is Copper (https://www.mining.com/markets/commodity/copper/)and it says No (its still trending down) I have about 30 ducks (indicators) and they are not lining up in a row yet so the majority of ducks say no.
I will repost the ducks on Sharetrader shortly.
It seems the NZ50C bear market cycle is in its middle stages and moving more slowly than average.

14201

[audiav]

Just been reading a BusinessDesk article today that mentioned the Levkovich Index so will be interested to see if that is one of your ducks Hoop

[Hoop]

Just been reading a BusinessDesk article today that mentioned the Levkovich Index so will be interested to see if that is one of your ducks Hoop
No it's not, but I will check Citi out. Thanks Audiav

[alokdhir]

Update of the 26th August Chart.
Hindsight:.... Bear Market correction (sucker rally) petered out at the 4800 major resistance thereby keeping its bear status.
...................The correction was a large one and created enough positive sentiment to persuade investors to re-enter the market.

Where to now ? :....When the index broke the 4600 support a target price of 4400 was set..That mean't the 4500 support was under threat. If 4500 support failed (which it did) there is no charted support at 4400 so it seems the 4200 comes into focus (the previous low point).
The NZ50C status is Bear so revisiting 4200 has to be considered as a real possibility. 4200 is a strong support level as it has a historic support point back in September 2018 (yes...the majority of long termers that don't beat the market, their capital is now back to what it was in beginning 2019...As we chartists say famously said on Sharetrader by my Mentor Phaedrus "The market giveth the market takes away".
Although 4200 area is strong there are good odds it may break.. It has to be remembered that the market is in a Bear Market Cycle and the DOW Theory (https://www.robertwcolby.com/dowtheory.html) is operating (lower highs lower lows with 3 stages).

Could 4200 be the bottom?
Who knows...but from my perception the odds of 4200 being the bottom is not good, investor sentiment although negative, it's near future is still too rosy (optimistic), (VIX needs to be 40+ for a period of time (https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui)) they are receiving shocks but there is no major panic yet so the DOW Theory monitors says No...My favourite (nearly 100% reliable) Duck is Copper (https://www.mining.com/markets/commodity/copper/)and it says No (its still trending down) I have about 30 ducks (indicators) and they are not lining up in a row yet so the majority of ducks say no.
I will repost the ducks on Sharetrader shortly.
It seems the NZ50C bear market cycle is in its middle stages and moving more slowly than average.

14201

I feel U r inherently Bear inside ....not withstanding the current state of the market ....Your bearish posts are more then otherwise ....so it seems u have a bearish bias ....which this current situation suits very well . I will expect readers to keep that in mind too

[winner69]

I feel U r inherently Bear inside ....not withstanding the current state of the market ....Your bearish posts are more then otherwise ....so it seems u have a bearish bias ....which this current situation suits very well . I will expect readers to keep that in mind too

I’ve known Hoop for 20 years plus ….he is inherently neither bearish’ or ‘bullish’ ……calls it as he sees it, mainly based on what charts are showing.not his fault things look bearish at the moment, I’m sure he’d prefer they weren’t.

I will expect readers to keep that in mind.

[Habits]

Lets c where it takes support ...4600 or 4500 or goes to make new low

If it makes a higher bottom then range trade for a while ...imo thats the best outcome possible in the current scenario

But I will keep my mind open ...wont let media and people's preconceived perceptions colour my mind ....let the charts speak for themselves ...in hindsight we will know which way the worm turned then we will ascribe reasons for that happening

Initially it was not supposed to cross 4600 ...but it reached 4800 ....now its supposed to make new low as thats what is real Bear market ...letc c if that comes true


"I C said the blind man to his deaf son"

Actually I dont, Yahoo Finance only shows maximum last 5 trading days on the nz50 capital index nz50c and there is no chart under the usual ticker mark ^nz50c

Most if not all action will be driven by offshore events and sentiment in the short term or even the medium term

Best place to be is out of stocks. What do all those holding KS do, move to less risk or too late now?

[alokdhir]

I’ve known Hoop for 20 years plus ….he is inherently neither bearish’ or ‘bullish’ ……calls it as he sees it, mainly based on what charts are showing.not his fault things look bearish at the moment, I’m sure he’d prefer they weren’t.

I will expect readers to keep that in mind.

Why I felt so when I wrote what I wrote ....

Last time market took support close to 4200 NZ50C ...then " Bear Market Rally " started as expected by many including me ...though I am not a TA expert at all ...I specifically asked TA experts for actionable info about where it can reach ...what levels to hope for ahead on the way up ....I was told Bear Market rallies normally fail at first resistance ie 4500 ....but this one went on over second resistance too that was 4600 and reached third resistance of 4800 ....there all including me also became negative as it was too bullish for current market situation from FA angle also .

Now he is anticipating in advance the chances of 4200 failing ...ie is bearish expectations ahead of it happening which shows bias ...He didnt show any bullish bias when it was going over 4500 then 4600 to almost reach 4800

But now he predicts good chance of 4200 breaking in advance ....may very well happen but no one knows ....if there was no chance of it crossing 4800 then how come it becomes predictable that it can break 4200 this time ....just need to wait and watch

I am not on either side both ways ...while going up or going down ....just need to wait and watch how it reacts to 4200 levels like we all saw how it reacted to 4800 levels ....without any predetermined bias

[FTG]

Perhaps now is an opportune time to reflect on the the sage quote.... "Seek first to understand, before being understood".

Regardless of whether the Bull or the Bear is ruling the street, "The market" has this remarkable ability of reminding us (when we least expect & want it) of the merits of maintaining some humility.
Start making declarations & decisions based on subjective viewpoints and thinking that YOU have 'got it all sussed', then the time is nigh for you to be abruptly reminded otherwise.

The 'Everything Bubble' was in full swing only just a few months ago. It seems to me that there are still many, many market participants who think that we are just experiencing a short pause in proceedings. In the meantime they attempt to talk themselves (and the market) up! Of course, they could be correct, but ........yeah; nah.

Hoop, thank you for your post by the way. It's refreshing to have a different & well-considered perspective presented; even if a bit confronting for some!

[alokdhir]

Update of the 26th August Chart.
Hindsight:.... Bear Market correction (sucker rally) petered out at the 4800 major resistance thereby keeping its bear status.
...................The correction was a large one and created enough positive sentiment to persuade investors to re-enter the market.

Where to now ? :....When the index broke the 4600 support a target price of 4400 was set..That mean't the 4500 support was under threat. If 4500 support failed (which it did) there is no charted support at 4400 so it seems the 4200 comes into focus (the previous low point).
The NZ50C status is Bear so revisiting 4200 has to be considered as a real possibility. 4200 is a strong support level as it has a historic support point back in September 2018 (yes...the majority of long termers that don't beat the market, their capital is now back to what it was in beginning 2019...As we chartists say famously said on Sharetrader by my Mentor Phaedrus "The market giveth the market takes away".
Although 4200 area is strong there are good odds it may break.. It has to be remembered that the market is in a Bear Market Cycle and the DOW Theory (https://www.robertwcolby.com/dowtheory.html) is operating (lower highs lower lows with 3 stages).

Could 4200 be the bottom?
Who knows...but from my perception the odds of 4200 being the bottom is not good, investor sentiment although negative, it's near future is still too rosy (optimistic), (VIX needs to be 40+ for a period of time (https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui)) they are receiving shocks but there is no major panic yet so the DOW Theory monitors says No...My favourite (nearly 100% reliable) Duck is Copper (https://www.mining.com/markets/commodity/copper/)and it says No (its still trending down) I have about 30 ducks (indicators) and they are not lining up in a row yet so the majority of ducks say no.
I will repost the ducks on Sharetrader shortly.
It seems the NZ50C bear market cycle is in its middle stages and moving more slowly than average.

14201

Was not just media ...many experts and analysts and Gurus here were looking for newer bottoms and Bear market continuing ....I am not saying its end of it but still many TA experts becoming positive shud mean something ....anticipating things your way not always happen ...when all or most including TA experts become positive is the most danger time ...not from TA angle from gut feel angle ....:D

[SailorRob]

The NZX returned 1% per year average through the entire decade of the 90's

Then -0.3% (that's minus) for the entire decade of the 2000's

So basically nothing for 20 years in terms of capital.

Plus dividends.

And then 6.0% from 2010 until now.

0.0% for the last nearly 4 years.


Food for thought.

[Rawz]

Wow that’s interesting thanks for sharing SRob

[BlackPeter]

The NZX returned 1% per year average through the entire decade of the 90's

Then -0.3% (that's minus) for the entire decade of the 2000's

So basically nothing for 20 years in terms of capital.

Plus dividends.

And then 6.0% from 2010 until now.

0.0% for the last nearly 4 years.


Food for thought.

Don't think the numbers are right ... but hey, if that's what you want to believe.

Here is the chart for the last 20 years ... and the (gross) index (i.e. including dividends) went from something like 2000 to something like 12000 in 20 years. That's nearly 10% per year ... but sure, there have been ups and downs.

14492

[Rawz]

interest too BP.. thanks for sharing

i suspect both right lol

[bull....]

The NZX returned 1% per year average through the entire decade of the 90's

Then -0.3% (that's minus) for the entire decade of the 2000's

So basically nothing for 20 years in terms of capital.

Plus dividends.

And then 6.0% from 2010 until now.

0.0% for the last nearly 4 years.


Food for thought.

terrible and anyone who brought in last couple yr's most likely under water

[alokdhir]

terrible and anyone who brought in last couple yr's most likely under water

Stocks more under water or Houses mate ? Or crypto ?? ...Or any one wud have kept money in " No Interest " deposits for last 4 years ...how many had that kind of crystal ball with them ...maybe only "one " our mate Bull ...or shall I say " Bearish Bull " ?? ...lol :p

[SailorRob]

Don't think the numbers are right ... but hey, if that's what you want to believe.

Here is the chart for the last 20 years ... and the (gross) index (i.e. including dividends) went from something like 2000 to something like 12000 in 20 years. That's nearly 10% per year ... but sure, there have been ups and downs.

14492



Blackpeter doesn't think the numbers are right. Blackpeter does not provide any reasoning behind him not thinking they are correct and then posts a chart of the Gross index which has absolutely zero relevance to the point I was making.

But the people of Sharetrader can make up their own minds, do they want to believe the numbers provided by the late great Brian Gaynor? The man who understood the NZ capital markets going back to before the Brierley index and all it's subsequent reinventions? Or Blackpeter who with the stroke of a keyboard can rule out the numbers I presented as wrong.

Here is the reference material from Brian Gaynor and the numbers I of course double checked (not that I needed to). https://milfordasset.com/insights/new-turn-on-rollercoaster-ride-for-nzx-indices

But hey Blackpeter, if that's what you want to believe?

[SailorRob]

terrible and anyone who brought in last couple yr's most likely under water


Brought is when you turn up to a BYO party with a box of double brown.

Bought is what you did at the liquor store.

[SailorRob]

interest too BP.. thanks for sharing

i suspect both right lol


Only one of us can write cheques with our mouths that our arses can cash.

[Hoop]

Just a heads up as the NZX has a TA Alert.

These last 5 weeks has seen relative calm (trendless) and a bullish feeling returning as the market tries to move out of its Bear Market cycle status.
The signals of change have appeared. Sorry the chart below is a bit messy

Positive/negative signals are mixed but there is a worry. The signals have appeared with the NZ50C index resting on multiple supports..Multi supports whether respected or broken results in high probability of that future behaviour happening. If respected there is a high probability of the market moving rapidly higher (more volatility) and reconfirms a Bull Market cycle is underway.. Ditto if the supports break but in a downward trend and the Bear lives on.

Either way its important for us "finger on the pulse" investors as it will define the status of the Market. Whether to start investing (accumulation) or remain on the sidelines. We will have a better idea which way in a few days as more data is obtained.

Disc: 5% Equities (Long term kennel investing :p), 95% 6 month fixed term deposits.

14570

[Fortunecookie]

https://www.morningstar.com.au/insights/personal-finance/234468/the-big-edge-individual-investors-have-over-fund-managers

This is a great article. Fund managers operate with mandates and client relationship can be a negative influence.
But as a retail investor you still need to be right most times with your picks.

[Hoop]

No need to write anything on the latest chart as it was explained on my previous post a month ago..It took longer than expected to see a change of behaviour but it has now..and its TA bad news..all supports broken all medium term indicators firing sell signals. All TA eyes should be focused on the next support level at 4530 (-4% down from now) then the psychological 4500.

14631

QUOTE=Hoop;1001971]Just a heads up as the NZX has a TA Alert.

These last 5 weeks has seen relative calm (trendless) and a bullish feeling returning as the market tries to move out of its Bear Market cycle status.
The signals of change have appeared. Sorry the chart below is a bit messy

Positive/negative signals are mixed but there is a worry. The signals have appeared with the NZ50C index resting on multiple supports..Multi supports whether respected or broken results in high probability of that future behaviour happening. If respected there is a high probability of the market moving rapidly higher (more volatility) and reconfirms a Bull Market cycle is underway.. Ditto if the supports break but in a downward trend and the Bear lives on.

Either way its important for us "finger on the pulse" investors as it will define the status of the Market. Whether to start investing (accumulation) or remain on the sidelines. We will have a better idea which way in a few days as more data is obtained.

Disc: 5% Equities (Long term kennel investing :p), 95% 6 month fixed term deposits.

14570[/QUOTE]

[SailorRob]

No need to write anything on the latest chart as it was explained on my previous post a month ago..It took longer than expected to see a change of behaviour but it has now..and its TA bad news..all supports broken all medium term indicators firing sell signals. All TA eyes should be focused on the next support level at 4530 (-4% down from now) then the psychological 4500.

14631

QUOTE=Hoop;1001971]Just a heads up as the NZX has a TA Alert.

These last 5 weeks has seen relative calm (trendless) and a bullish feeling returning as the market tries to move out of its Bear Market cycle status.
The signals of change have appeared. Sorry the chart below is a bit messy

Positive/negative signals are mixed but there is a worry. The signals have appeared with the NZ50C index resting on multiple supports..Multi supports whether respected or broken results in high probability of that future behaviour happening. If respected there is a high probability of the market moving rapidly higher (more volatility) and reconfirms a Bull Market cycle is underway.. Ditto if the supports break but in a downward trend and the Bear lives on.

Either way its important for us "finger on the pulse" investors as it will define the status of the Market. Whether to start investing (accumulation) or remain on the sidelines. We will have a better idea which way in a few days as more data is obtained.

Disc: 5% Equities (Long term kennel investing :p), 95% 6 month fixed term deposits.

14570[/QUOTE]

Gone nowhere in 4 years.

[Hoop]

My charts are the top 50 NZ market index that's trending down and TA warns to cease buying into those stocks contained within the NZ50C market at the moment.

These TA charts are medium term (default setting). Using these types of charts are geared to medium term investors.

A successful TA strategy for medium term TA investors is now to cease buying all stocks within that index firing medium term sell signals and sell the stock itself when it starts firing off medium term sell signals...When the index recovers (buy signals) start buying back and new accumulations, but wait for the individual stock to start firing buy signals.. (I try to use this strategy, discipline is not my strong point). The idea of the strategy is to sell the poorer performing stocks thereby lessening the risk of large losses and let the good profitable stocks carry on running.

[Hoop]

Gone nowhere in 4 years.[/QUOTE]

So true

To be fair there were pockets of opportunity especially the Covid bear aftermath opportunity and the recent small 3 month Xmas bull run .


14633

[BlackPeter]

My charts are the top 50 NZ market index that's trending down and TA warns to cease buying into those stocks contained within the NZ50C market at the moment.

These TA charts are medium term (default setting). Using these types of charts are geared to medium term investors.

A successful TA strategy for medium term TA investors is now to cease buying all stocks within that index firing medium term sell signals and sell the stock itself when it starts firing off medium term sell signals...When the index recovers (buy signals) start buying back and new accumulations, but wait for the individual stock to start firing buy signals.. (I try to use this strategy, discipline is not my strong point). The idea of the strategy is to sell the poorer performing stocks thereby lessening the risk of large losses and let the good profitable stocks carry on running.

Interesting, given that US Markets are on fire. I am wondering whether the drop of the NZX50 might have anything to do with the expected demise of PEB (for some funny reason they are still part of the NZX50), EBOS pain and some other issues quite unrelated to the general market mood?

If that's the case ... I am wondering whether the market signal might be a false flag ... but obviously - it always could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy?

What I am saying is - if everybody stops buying, than guess what is going to happen?

[winner69]

That's a pretty sad looking chart Hoop

[Hoop]

Interesting, given that US Markets are on fire. I am wondering whether the drop of the NZX50 might have anything to do with the expected demise of PEB (for some funny reason they are still part of the NZX50), EBOS pain and some other issues quite unrelated to the general market mood?

If that's the case ... I am wondering whether the market signal might be a false flag ... but obviously - it always could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy?

What I am saying is - if everybody stops buying, than guess what is going to happen?

"Interesting, given that US Markets are on fire". Hmmm on fire is a bit of a stretch...I would say performing better. It hasn't taken much of a move to cause a reversal to a Bull Market Cycle. Yes there's been some love for the "small"companies recently but still only 58.34% of the NYSE stocks are Bulls the rest are still Bears. Mind you a couple of weeks ago there were 42% Bulls so the sudden rise is encouraging which has caught the attention of the Trading Analysts and hyped up by the various medias. If you look at the chart below there is always sudden rises and falls during the period of bull and bear cycle corrections and Market cycle reversals. The question at the moment..Is Wall St cyclic reversal back to a Bull Market cycle real?

14637

"...wondering whether the drop of the NZX50 might have anything to do with the expected demise of PEB (for some funny reason they are still part of the NZX50), EBOS pain and some other issues quite unrelated to the general market mood?" Could be any number of things including stuff not yet on the radar..Me being a Pleb I will probably be the last to know..That's why I use TA.

"I am wondering whether the market signal might be a false flag" ...Maybe, TAers call this behaviour either a bull trap or a bear trap.
"it always could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy?"..Yes that's possible...Humans (especially investors) have this misconception that we are a species better than the animals, unfortunately we are hot-wired at birth with animal (survival) instincts..so we as humans can stampede just as good as the buffalos if not better..I think we just as good as doing the Lemming thing too :). Unfortunately TA not nature gets the blame.:p.

"What I am saying is - if everybody stops buying, than guess what is going to happen?" Stock exchanges close down, Share Brokers go extinct and all investors move on from Equities towards the next best investment... Just Kidding :D

[Hoop]

That's a pretty sad looking chart Hoop
Yeah, hopefully it is near the bottom (around 4550).
Now ..what were you saying about the Market under performing for the next 10 years.... something about a correlation between excess debt and economic growth?

[winner69]

Yeah, hopefully it is near the bottom (around 4550).
Now ..what were you saying about the Market under performing for the next 10 years.... something about a correlation between excess debt and economic growth?

ANZ Roy Morgan consumer Confidence Poll asks respondents how they feel about the next 5 years.

How that’s been tracking below….there seems to be long term sense of unease about nz’s future……and it’s not improving

Can’t but help feel that this ‘unease’ over time has and will continue to impact ‘investor confidence’ as well with the inevitable under performance of the nz market.

But then again like in 2010 (post GFC) everybody will get super excited and be happy as again …maybe change in govt will be catalyst

[Valuegrowth]

In my view, it's going to be consolidation. After one of the longest bull markets for many assets, next scenario is
readjustment of asset prices. Out of favour stocks are next winners. In addition, going forward value investors and long term investors can create demand for strong companies on price weakness and market sell-off.

[Baa_Baa]

ANZ Roy Morgan consumer Confidence Poll asks respondents how they feel about the next 5 years.

How that’s been tracking below….there seems to be long term sense of unease about nz’s future……and it’s not improving

Can’t but help feel that this ‘unease’ over time has and will continue to impact ‘investor confidence’ as well with the inevitable under performance of the nz market.

But then again like in 2010 (post GFC) everybody will get super excited and be happy as again …maybe change in govt will be catalyst

If you draw a trend line from '03 to '17, it's a relatively shallow decline, but a trend line from '17 to-date is a markedly steeper down-trend. So I think you're probably right, a change in government might reverse the past 5 year trend, or at least revert to the longer term trend.

[Hoop]

Will 4550 support hold and we see a rise today?

The NZ Equities bottomed out (at 4200/4300 area) with the bullish double bottom pattern last year (July & October) and there is a feeling we are now in a very slow recovery mode, but the recent drop is a worry and has to stop and bounce upward off the important 4530 ish support area. Yesterday the NZ50C rose up 0.3% off its lowest point of 4540 the day before.

Wall St has just entered a new Bull Market Cycle (hopefully it stays that way). That adds some hope that the NZ50C 4530 support will hold and will soon give us a buying opportunity.

Time will tell

[kiora]

Thanks Hoop. Yes time will tell :)

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/132367183/why-a-low-share-price-doesnt-mean-a-stock-is-cheap

"Meal kit company My Food Bag sold shares at $1.85 in 2021 (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124215203/my-food-bag-valued-at-450m-ahead-of-sharemarket-listing) and is now trading at 18c, biotech company Blis Technologies sold shares at 10c in 2000 and is now trading at 2.4c, glass manufacturer Metro Performance Glass sold shares for $1.70 in 2014 and is now trading at 13.2c, and h (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122092790/listed-health-and-skincare-firm-me-today-raises-4m-after-two-day-capital-raise)ealth and wellness company Me Today sold shares at 9.5c in 2020 (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122092790/listed-health-and-skincare-firm-me-today-raises-4m-after-two-day-capital-raise) is now trading at just 0.8c."

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/132367183/why-a-low-share-price-doesnt-mean-a-stock-is-cheap


"Meal kit company My Food Bag sold shares at $1.85 in 2021 (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124215203/my-food-bag-valued-at-450m-ahead-of-sharemarket-listing) and is now trading at 18c, biotech company Blis Technologies sold shares at 10c in 2000 and is now trading at 2.4c, glass manufacturer Metro Performance Glass sold shares for $1.70 in 2014 and is now trading at 13.2c, and h (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122092790/listed-health-and-skincare-firm-me-today-raises-4m-after-two-day-capital-raise)ealth and wellness company Me Today sold shares at 9.5c in 2020 (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122092790/listed-health-and-skincare-firm-me-today-raises-4m-after-two-day-capital-raise) is now trading at just 0.8c."

[SailorRob]

NZX hit 3969 in September 1987.

Now it's 4681.

So 36 year return of less than 0.5%.

Massive statement about NZ right there.

The combined value of all listed companies in NZ is far less now than it was in 1987 in real terms.

A fraction.

[bull....]

NZX hit 3969 in September 1987.

Now it's 4681.

So 36 year return of less than 0.5%.

Massive statement about NZ right there.

The combined value of all listed companies in NZ is far less now than it was in 1987 in real terms.

A fraction.

yep imagine how terrible the performance would have been without 10yrs of money printing :scared:

[Bjauck]

NZX hit 3969 in September 1987.

Now it's 4681.

So 36 year return of less than 0.5%.

Massive statement about NZ right there.

The combined value of all listed companies in NZ is far less now than it was in 1987 in real terms.

A fraction. NZ policies have been all about building up the value of housing - and letting listing companies ownership drift overseas. If only we had retained the likes of XRO…

[SailorRob]

NZ policies have been all about building up the value of housing - and letting listing companies ownership drift overseas. If only we had retained the likes of XRO…

Yeah that's a big part of it. That super low return doesn't include the cash out you would get from all the taken over companies.

But incredible nonetheless.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300926418/rampant-price-inflation-a-memory-by-mid-next-year-infometrics-says?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=1#cxrecs_s

Rampant price inflation 'a memory' by mid next year, Infometrics says

Kiernan said the economy was likely to “flirt with” negative growth until the end of 2024, which could look like a milder downturn compared to experiences such as the Global Financial Crisis. But population growth would obscure some of the extent of the weakness.
“A 2.2% decline in per-capita GDP in the year to June 2024 represents a much more significant contraction. This result demonstrates the reversal of households’ fortunes as the economy has slowed. The effects on businesses of each of their customers spending less will only be mitigated by an increase in customer numbers associated with strong net migration.

“Be it a continued slowdown, a double-dip recession, or any other description, the economy is still going to look and feel weaker throughout the rest of 2023 and into 2024. That’s the price we’re paying to get inflation under control and put the New Zealand economy on a more sustainable path. At least we’re now seeing the effects of the tightening in monetary conditions coming through.”

[SailorRob]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300926418/rampant-price-inflation-a-memory-by-mid-next-year-infometrics-says?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=1#cxrecs_s

Rampant price inflation 'a memory' by mid next year, Infometrics says

Kiernan said the economy was likely to “flirt with” negative growth until the end of 2024, which could look like a milder downturn compared to experiences such as the Global Financial Crisis. But population growth would obscure some of the extent of the weakness.
“A 2.2% decline in per-capita GDP in the year to June 2024 represents a much more significant contraction. This result demonstrates the reversal of households’ fortunes as the economy has slowed. The effects on businesses of each of their customers spending less will only be mitigated by an increase in customer numbers associated with strong net migration.

“Be it a continued slowdown, a double-dip recession, or any other description, the economy is still going to look and feel weaker throughout the rest of 2023 and into 2024. That’s the price we’re paying to get inflation under control and put the New Zealand economy on a more sustainable path. At least we’re now seeing the effects of the tightening in monetary conditions coming through.”









What's Kiernans record of predicting any of this in the past?

So why you posting it then?

What was your one and only 50 bagger?

[Valuegrowth]

We have to wait and see. Mr Gareth Kiernan used to work as an analyst at Reserve bank. He also have held positions like Economist, Senior economist and Managing director. He has an in-depth understanding of construction sector.Through his long involvement in Infometrics’ team and his dealings with clients, Gareth has an extensive knowledge of the broader NZ economy.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.infometrics.co.nz/article/2023-07-mr-recession-softened-by-migration-surge-as-inflation-eases

[winner69]

What's Kiernans record of predicting any of this in the past?

So why you posting it then?

What was your one and only 50 bagger?

Infometrics forecast usually pretty good …independent, no barrows to push, no set agendas

Kieran more conservative than the likes of that Brad Olsen who works there.

But in saying that I hear it’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future. Rob, I got that from one your heroes Mr Berra

[Valuegrowth]

We can get an idea if you we do research about his background. He has some good knowledge about the economy. Intelligent investors, traders, analyts and forecasters are different from others.In fact, we can learn lot of things from them.


Infometrics forecast usually pretty good …independent, no barrows to push, no set agendas.Kieran more conservative than the likes of that Brad Olsen who works there.But in saying that I hear it’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future. I got that from one your heroes Mr Berra

[SailorRob]

We have to wait and see. Mr Gareth Kiernan used to work as an analyst at Reserve bank. He also have held positions like Economist, Senior economist and Managing director. He has an in-depth understanding of construction sector.Through his long involvement in Infometrics’ team and his dealings with clients, Gareth has an extensive knowledge of the broader NZ economy.

We will have to wait and see what his historical record has been??

What??

[SailorRob]

Infometrics forecast usually pretty good …independent, no barrows to push, no set agendas

Kieran more conservative than the likes of that Brad Olsen who works there.

But in saying that I hear it’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future. Rob, I got that from one your heroes Mr Berra

Define pretty good...

[alokdhir]

What most people keep forgetting that present state of economy dont relate 1:1 with state of stocks ...like economy was not at all bad in June 2021 when stocks were down in the dumps ...even property was miles away from bottom ...thus all will agree that stocks anticipate the future the fastest ...even faster then what used to be normally historically .

Stocks have already factored the worst fears by June 2021 lows ...now its trying to figure out end game of this inflation saga ...Collective market wisdom is mostly more correct than any single person's prediction ....so need pay more attention to TAPE then forecasts ...

If people had done that they wud have been happily invested long time back rather then keep waiting for double dips or prolonged downturns etc ...once all market is certain of rates path is down ...by then its game over already

[Valuegrowth]

One thing is sure. It’s hard to beat inflation including building inflation overnight. Don’t forget we have egg inflation too. My thinking is very close to Mr Gareth Kiernan.

https://www.theguardian.com/food/2023/may/18/why-are-eggs-so-expensive-heres-what-a-farmer-and-14000-hens-told-me

https://captiveaudience.nz/speakers/spk6069


We will have to wait and see what his historical record has been??

What??

[SailorRob]

What most people keep forgetting that present state of economy dont relate 1:1 with state of stocks


Exactly, and what nobody realises, is that the state of the economy can detach from stocks for 20 years...

This is what happened prior to the famous 'death of equities' in 1979.

[SailorRob]

If people had done that they wud have been happily invested long time back rather then keep waiting for double dips or prolonged downturns etc ...once all market is certain of rates path is down ...by then its game over already


Precisely.

[bull....]

down nearly 5% last few weeks :scared: cut in dairy payout's savaging the market along with rising yields. my call for negative yr again looking good

[ronaldson]

I suspect today is an important one for the NZX market. Will folk hold their nerve or will a lack of buy side support lead to a continuing capitulation so that the train gathers momentum?

[SailorRob]

1.8% return over just under 17 years... for the capital index.

[Rawz]

1.8% return over just under 17 years... for the capital index.



what is it including dividends?

[SailorRob]

what is it including dividends?

I'd say between 5 and 6.