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baller18
06-09-2013, 09:43 AM
Hoop is possibly Phaedrus :P
winner69
15-09-2013, 04:27 PM
Why worry about 4680 .....it's heading towards 5000 by Christmas
winner69
15-09-2013, 04:40 PM
propped up by DILs massive run to $28.50 right winner?
Bugger ...better adjust the 5000 down to 4950 as DIL continues to be a drag on he index
And, there we are, another all time high for the NZ50 at 4675, congratulations to all investors!
Crumbs, good enough for most, 4683 now, congratulations to all once again.
winner69
18-09-2013, 08:55 AM
And, there we are, another all time high for the NZ50 at 4675, congratulations to all investors!
In real terms (capital index) still quite a way below 2008 ....and not even half of 1987
Mista_Trix
18-09-2013, 09:08 AM
good to hear that winner, thanks. just shows that selling out just because the market has reached new highs is not prudent but just silly when the economic indicators point much, much higher. :)
Each to their own relationship with risk and reward. Although I do agree with you :-S
Mista_Trix
19-09-2013, 08:34 AM
Wow, I really thought they were going to taper, let the games continue.
Onwards and upwards!!
Quite a surprise.
winner69
19-09-2013, 08:37 AM
Boomer of a few days on the nzx ...even FBU might get to 10 bucks
Nzx50 to reach record highs again today ........whoopee
Boomer of a few days on the nzx ...even FBU might get to 10 bucks
Nzx50 to reach record highs again today ........whoopee
But what happen to all the end of the world, sky is falling, bear market prophecies of recent weeks ?
Goes to show that one will be eventually absolutely correct if one predicts calamity every day, just not this day.
winner69
19-09-2013, 09:17 AM
But what happen to all the end of the world, sky is falling, bear market prophecies of recent weeks ?
Goes to show that one will be eventually absolutely correct if one predicts calamity every day, just not this day.
If that comment pointed at me mate yes it will happen one day
And yes today / this week / his month is not that time
I'm relaxed ....making hay while the sun shines but prepared to take necessary action if the time comes
Mista_Trix
19-09-2013, 09:18 AM
If that comment pointed at me mate yes it will happen one day
And yes today / this week / his month is not that time
I'm relaxed ....making hay while the sun shines but prepared to take necessary action if the time comes
'when' the time comes :-S
winner69
19-09-2013, 09:20 AM
OK ...when then
No not at you Winner, it’s just my general reflection on how sentiment can change quickly.
I do get concerned occasionally though that some of the more perma bear posts I read may genuinely scare new or less experienced investors into unnecessarily cashing up and hiding.
winner69
19-09-2013, 09:32 AM
As some commentators say the FED has no exit strategy ...it's gone beyond kicking the can down the road to let's keep digging ...the hole not big enough yet
winner69
19-09-2013, 09:45 AM
Hoop .... Chart of the Day have updated their PE chart .... sort of says the current secular bear is still alive eh (secular bear markets are those when PE is trending down)
But what happen to all the end of the world, sky is falling, bear market prophecies of recent weeks ?
Goes to show that one will be eventually absolutely correct if one predicts calamity every day, just not this day.
Mac,,,ditto for the ever optimist predictor..and they seem to get it right more often than the doomdayists these last 4.5 years.....must be the Bull market Cycle effect....eh?...:)
Chances are it maybe a good time to quit that thinking and keep your reputation and wallet intact..eh?...Gotta watch out for those pesky laws of averages when dealing with cycles.
We all know (or should know) that there is a poor (not significant) correlation between the Cyclic Equity Markets and the economy.....
With this thought in mind + the average lifespan of an Equity Bull market cycle being 3.75 to 4.25 years...
you arrive at this present scenario below....
Equity prices have been rising at faster rate than the rate of earnings for the last 4.5 years...and so the Bull market cycle has now outlived its average lifespan...its is at least 6 months in bonus time ( equivalent to a 79yr old human )...In rare cases extremely old age bulls have seen 7 years ( equivalent to a human living to 125years)
It doesn't make me say a prediction that the bull will die now..... but make me discuss the fact that the chances are very good (and increasing)that the bull could die at any stage from now on
It pays for investors to think logically and realise that the NZX50 is a lot closer to the top than the bottom in this present bull cycle...At this stage of the Bull cycle Newbies jumping in armed with Buffett mentality and use the buy and hold investment Strategy seems a very dodgy practice...eh???.....always has been in the past...
..but hey.. this time is different,,right?
Sorry to have to say this MAC...but from past experiences....with each future correction due from now on you can expect those doomsday drums to bang increasingly louder....
Hoop .... Chart of the Day have updated their PE chart .... sort of says the current secular bear is still alive eh (secular bear markets are those when PE is trending down)
....The S&P500 is in a secular downward trend..that indicates the E in PE has to continue to perform much better than the average rate to prevent the P from falling.
Winner I'm trying to tie a chart together for the NZX50...but I'm having trouble finding a PE Ratio chart for the NZX50...have you got one tucked away in your computer box???
Not sure of the secular cycle status for NZX ...Evidence mounting up that you maybe right about the ASX sec bear/bull rev......
NZSilver
19-09-2013, 01:54 PM
I don't follow charts, its all a bit beyond me. Wish I did sometimes. However I do agree with Hoop when he says "It pays for investors to think logically and realise that the NZX50 is a lot closer to the top than the bottom in this present bull cycle.." Timing in the market is obviously impossible or a fluke, but there aren't many bargains out there anymore (besides HNZ haha). I'm beginning to take some of the top of my portfolio to increase my cash holdings, this is my risk prevention exercise as things can change very quickly. The higher anything gets the quicker it falls when fear begins to take control and cause irrational behavior. However it will provide good buying opportunities for the few that control their own human instincts and emotions. Good luck to all!
NZSilver
19-09-2013, 02:16 PM
http://www.fool.com.au/2013/09/19/the-market-isnt-cheap-buy-carefully/
Valuegrowth
22-09-2013, 06:48 PM
I don’t think anybody can identity market top or bottom 100% correctly. Still market may go higher during next six months while having volatility. We may have correction during next six to 12 months. Intelligent value investors will avoid over valued stocks while following wonderful businesses with great value. In addition contrarian markets players will follow out of favour sectors, commodities and stocks now.
As I said before it is time to identify the next most bullish stock markets, commodities, sectors, stocks and currencies before others.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
Hoop, you may have somehow read something personal into my post, I can assure you that was not the case, no offense intended if any was taken.
I don’t think anybody can identity market top or bottom 100% correctly. Still market may go higher during next six months while having volatility. We may have correction during next six to 12 months. Intelligent value investors will avoid over valued stocks while following wonderful businesses with great value. In addition contrarian markets players will follow out of favour sectors, commodities and stocks now.
As I said before it is time to identify the next most bullish stock markets, commodities, sectors, stocks and currencies before others.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
Markets climb a wall of worry and it can frequently seem that the end is neigh when corrections come along. The challenge is to focus on the fundamental signals and to filter the noise.
It is a legitimate risk management strategy to incrementally exit the market based on statistical market cycle duration averages. It takes a lot of discipline to do so and comes with its own risk that potentially being out of the market for long durations may result in lower returns over time than remaining in.
Economists and fundamental analysts establish close alignments between market cycles and specific economic metrics and some have success in using leading indicators to accurately predict market tops when those times arise, for the rest of us this can seem to be an unobtainable prospect.
The wise approach is for each investor to have some form of considered strategy that suits his/her risk tolerance and experience level. Statistical TA, economic FA, individual stock analysis, asset diversification, etc, each to their own.
Hoop, you may have somehow read something personal into my post, I can assure you that was not the case, no offense intended if any was taken.
No didn't read anything into your post.....just trying to twist the thinking around and get it outside the square ... as it takes all sorts to make a market....and predictors come in all types of personal temperments, behaviours, disciplines and animal types such as bears bulls rabbits squirrels and leemings and they all have their day in the sun at some point in time
...and by the way... here's something that's really scarey....speaking about doomdayists and stopped clocks, the USA's biggest permabear Nouriel Roubini has just gotten all bullish about the S&P500...He's only 4.5 years late but hey who's counting..huh? .....This has to be the biggest contrarian investing screaming sell signal of 2013...eh ? ........Anyway they reckon he's always right so maybe it will happen in the next bull market cycle ...it's reassuring to know that there will be another bull market cycle sometime in the future..thanks for that Nouriel....
Edit: I'm living the life in the fast lane (satire) the gamers in the family have chewed up the 160GB data cap.....gone from 13mb/sec to 22kb/sec atm ...took 2 minutes to load the ST page:p
No didn't read anything into your post.....just trying to twist the thinking around and get it outside the square ... as it takes all sorts to make a market....and predictors come in all types of personal temperments, behaviours, disciplines and animal types such as bears bulls rabbits squirrels and leemings and they all have their day in the sun at some point in time
...and by the way... here's something that's really scarey....speaking about doomdayists and stopped clocks, the USA's biggest permabear Nouriel Roubini has just gotten all bullish about the S&P500...He's only 4.5 years late but hey who's counting..huh? .....This has to be the biggest contrarian investing screaming sell signal of 2013...eh ? ........Anyway they reckon he's always right so maybe it will happen in the next bull market cycle ...it's reassuring to know that there will be another bull market cycle sometime in the future..thanks for that Nouriel....
Edit: I'm living the life in the fast lane (satire) the gamers in the family have chewed up the 160GB data cap.....gone from 13mb/sec to 22kb/sec atm ...took 2 minutes to load the ST page:p
Perhaps he was serving up some of that happy juice in that roof top hot tub party room Hoop. The other bears had to have it confiscated, he'll return to normal anytime soon now ............
Not such a bad looking party room though I have to say.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/10287115/Nouriel-Roubini-told-to-remove-hot-tub-from-roof-of-Manhattan-penthouse.html
Aside, I'm doing well if my teenagers leave me any internet at months end at all, tried turning it off once, crumbs !
This is a new metric for me (PE/VIX ratio), thought I’d share. It places us within the present cycle at 1999 and 2004 equivalent positions;
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/09/valuation-vix-complacency/
Although, I can’t decide if it’s an FA or TA metric ?
Not only does it seem that the NZ economy will outperform, but one wonders how much of the mountain of cash accumulated by kiwi baby boomers in Australia will return to New Zealand over the next decade ?.
http://www.3news.co.nz/Economic-recovery-beating-Australia--economist/tabid/421/articleID/315043/Default.aspx
Each time I drive past Frankton it seems there’s yet another new suburb of returned expats.
Mista_Trix
02-10-2013, 02:38 PM
Interesting recovery off the American news. I would have thought we were going to have a turbulent couple of days for sure. I wonder if Markets are settling a bit. The last few weeks have been cries of a rocking couple of months ahead starting with this, but if the NZX isn't really reacting, makes you think how the next little while will play out.
More a contemplation than any really analysis or opinion :-S
Interesting recovery off the American news. I would have thought we were going to have a turbulent couple of days for sure. I wonder if Markets are settling a bit. The last few weeks have been cries of a rocking couple of months ahead starting with this, but if the NZX isn't really reacting, makes you think how the next little while will play out.
More a contemplation than any really analysis or opinion :-S
It is interesting, if you overlay the S&P500 and NZ50 during last year’s October/November debt ceiling debate, the NZ50 didn't correlate or correct at all, in fact it advanced during that whole US risk off period.
When reviewing old bull markets it sometimes pays to step back from the current disturbing noise and view the larger picture...kinda like sitting on a hill far away you get see the wood down below and not the trees.
From this perspective this old bull still looks healthy .....it seems this recently past bearish period has all the signatures of another Bull Market Correction........................................ .......... and it so it's "upwards and onwards" again.
5000 by Xmas??? and overtake the AORDS next year???..... The possibilities don't look as far fetched now compared to a year ago...eh??
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5002102013weekly.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZX5002102013weekly.gif.html)
Beautiful picture there Hoop, cheers.
One question though is (can't remember if I've mixed them up or not), when is this cyclical bull going to turn into a secular bull? Sinc eit has well and truly broken long-term resistance, is it now in that territory?
Probably having (secular) mentioned on the primary resistance (now support) is misleading as cyclic and secular are measured differently....Usually a chart as above does not accurately show a secular change.....Secular reversal from bear to bull requires an annualised PE ratio to change trend and having it confirmed from downtrending to an uptrending direction....These are very long term happenings...Winner and I have been watching the AORDS the last year or so... it seems there could be a reversal back to Secular Bull Market...as I said we have been watching this event for a year now and although Winner seems convinced I'm only partially convinced it takes a long time...eh..
Why worry about Secular bulls and Bears?????
Secular Bear Market periods signatures on a standard long term charts (10 year ..20 year) shows a high incidence of flat cyclic bull market tops (there has been exceptions e.g ASX 2003 to 2007) ...this indicates that the S&P 500 for example with it's secular bear market cycle period has a high probability reversing into another cyclic bear market as it's Cyclic Bull market cycle has reached the flat top area now..
The question to ask is whether NZX50 is in a secular bear cycle or not...NZX Data is very difficult to obtain...
below is re posted chart from Mick100 post. (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets/page8)..it shows the flatness of the S&P500 index during Secular market cycles....overall though with inflation and US currency affected the value of E in the PE Ratio the gold standard reflects the true worth of E over time you can see that its possible to have a rising market but the currency devaluation shown up by the gold standard shows that the Rising Equity Market Value during a secular bear market cycle is a mirage.....Its easy to see at the moment on Wall St the S&P500 has risen a lot these last few years but as far as value goes its a mirage as the US$ is worth a lot less now due to series of QE
Now...compare this with rising NZX50 and the rising NZ$... NZ is currently seeing a STELLAR capital growth period!!! not seen for at least the last 50 years ...and guess what? Most NZer's are a lot wealthier now global-wise..this has to be a good thing..yet most NZers don't realise it!!!!!!! They keep on referring NZX50 with the S&P500..yes the trend between the two exchanges is correlating these last few years... but the rest is a mirage, courtesy of Uncle Ben
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/images/saville060308a.gif
Onward and upward for the NZ economy with no sign of an economic top on the horizon, ...., should support the NZ50 just fine.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11137643 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11137643)
Greenbour are in trouble then. Strong economy means the incumbent has a huge advantage and we all know Greenbour have nothing in their cabinet to offset that other than raising taxes and promising things we could never afford under them.Not necessarily - strong economy means people more willing to vote for socialist policies. Its when times are tough, belt tightening is needed so they veer to the right.
It will be an interesting year with that Cun_liffe already making promises the economy cant keep.
Mista_Trix
10-10-2013, 10:19 AM
Greenbour are in trouble then. Strong economy means the incumbent has a huge advantage and we all know Greenbour have nothing in their cabinet to offset that other than raising taxes and promising things we could never afford under them.
Guess it's time to buy MRP and MER then eh?!
You're totally right with the economy stuff, but I don't actually think the average person really understands the advantageous position we've been put in by this government on a world standing. What may be their downfall are; changing the rules around right to protest at sea, the GCSB scandal, asset sales, 'crony capitalism', etc etc.
It's the growing list of little things that are starting to stack against them where the 'right vs left' argument can take hold. At its core I think NZ would like to 'think' of itself as being more left, so if the issues above take hold and the 'right vs left' debate strengthens we may see some issues for the incumbent govt.
Outside of a couple of things, compared to the rest of the world our right and left are not dramatically different, although god I'd hate to see where we'd be now if labour had stayed in power. :-S
NO doubt the Nats have made a few mistakes but Labour would also - they put in place interest free student loans and WFF and now you cant get rid of the politically.
Dont get bogged down in the detail, look at the big picture to choose your party - big picture, I like the economic policies of National, others may like the socialist policies of Labour and that is where the debate should be drawn, not on immaterial issues (immaterial to the government and the bigger picture that is)
I'm picking the US politicians will do what all good politicians do. They will continue their usual grand standing, finger pointing, and posturing up until the eleventh hour. At which time they will decide to kick the debt ceiling "can" further down the road, with a temporary raise of the limit.
NZ has it's own political "can" being kicked down the road. National Super. It will continue to be kicked and kicked down the road, or put off to a far off date by which time the can will have turned into a barrel for the next generation.
The world is safe for a few months. Get out the cheque book and start spending like a drunken sailor everyone!!!
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/16/senate-leaders-strike-debt-ceiling-deal-shutdown
Lol. Don't get too drunk, US earnings seasons next, which is what drives the market after all
winner69
22-10-2013, 07:38 AM
Wrong again I am ......NZX50 to be well north of 5000 by Xmas methinks
Whats going to stop it going up and up .... nothing
I'm not too worried about more Impala's, Vipers and Corvettes on our roads!I not think NZ roads are designed for American cars - too many corners.
Give me an Evo/STI any day.
Wrong again I am ......NZX50 to be well north of 5000 by Xmas methinks
Whats going to stop it going up and up .... nothingTons of green arrows on my holdings list yesterday - and some big gains - PEB, MET, RYM, even the power co's have recovered now that MEL is over.
Bring on the sunny weather and the pre Christmas growth spurt!
kiora
25-10-2013, 11:06 AM
Wow what a wave ! When is it time to kick out ?
http://nz.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENZ50#symbol=^nz50;range=my;compare=;i ndicator=ema+bollinger+rsi+mfi+macd;charttype=area ;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=und efined;
winner69
12-11-2013, 09:20 PM
As long as the NZX50 reaches 5000 before the end of the world it'll be OK
Hussman says '....the market has now re-established the most hostile overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndrome we can identify'
But (out of context) this time is different .... Hussman says '....“this time is different,” is faith in the Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing. Though quantitative easing has no mechanistic relationship to stock prices except to make low-risk assets psychologically uncomfortable to hold, investors place far more certainty in the effectiveness of QE than can be demonstrated by either theory or evidence. The argument essentially reduces to a claim that QE makes stocks go up because “it just does.” We doubt that the perception that an easy Fed can hold stock prices up will be any more durable in the next couple of years than it was in the 2000-2002 decline or the 2007-2009 decline – both periods of persistent and aggressive Fed easing. But QE is novel, and like the internet bubble, novelty feeds imagination. Most of what investors believe about QE is imaginative.
Don't worry .... it may never happen .... anyway here is the link .... some pictures as well
A Textbook Pre-Crash Bubble
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc131111.htm
winner69
20-11-2013, 03:29 PM
That 5000 has got further away over the last few days. Last week I thought we were only one decent day away from 5000 and now it seems a struggle to get there by Xmas
Of course it will ...won't it
Casino
20-11-2013, 05:37 PM
But QE is novel, and like the internet bubble, novelty feeds imagination. Most of what investors believe about QE is imaginative.
brilliant!
That 5000 has got further away over the last few days. Last week I thought we were only one decent day away from 5000 and now it seems a struggle to get there by Xmas
Of course it will ...won't it
I feel uneasy about the NZX50 at the moment, keep thinking shall I get out, but maybe it will recover now that companies have hopefully stoped asking shareholders for more money.
I'm too old to go through another crash.
Harvey Specter
22-11-2013, 10:25 AM
NOt sure exactly where to post this so thought I would post here:
https://www.nzx.com/nzx-conference
NZX Emerging & Mid-Cap Companies ConferenceNZX recently hosted a conference featuring presentations from a diverse group of NZX listed emerging and mid-cap companies. The event was supported by First New Zealand Capital and Forsyth Barr.
Talks from CEOs and senior executives provided real insights into a dynamic segment of NZX’s market and the economy. Video footage of each presentation along with the presentation packs for download are below.
In addition, First New Zealand Capital prepared a series of fact sheets on each of the companies at the conference.
You can download First New Zealand Capital's note here. (https://nzx.com/files/static/cms-documents/NZX%20Small%20&%20Mid-cap%20Conference%2020%20November%202013.pdf)
Mista_Trix
22-11-2013, 10:42 AM
NOt sure exactly where to post this so thought I would post here:
https://www.nzx.com/nzx-conference
Woah, that's brilliant.
Good on them for filming it, putting it up and making it easily accessible and available to others.
Thanks for sharing Harvey. Need to check it tonight. Smiths City Group is on my watchlist.
Billy Boy
22-11-2013, 01:04 PM
https://www.nzx.com/nzx-conference
Hey !!! This is great.
Good on you NZX
BB
Billy Boy
22-11-2013, 01:12 PM
Hoop, Moosie, Some one.
How do I get NZX securities to show on Increadible Charts.
I tries FBU_NZ etc..
Tks in advance
BB:)
Hoop, Moosie, Some one.
How do I get NZX securities to show on Increadible Charts.
I tries FBU_NZ etc..
Tks in advance
BB:)
Try this format for yahoo data: y_fbu.nz
Try this format for csv data: d_fbu.csv
Hey Hoop, how's our NZX50 chart looking? going towards correction territory?
Hi Moosie
The chart is showing the NZX50 index being in correction mode for a week now
How big will the correction be????....who knows???
The last correction was minor and if that Fibonacci Retracement figure back then was used for this correction it would be around the 4750 area (bottom). As you can see on the first chart below there are a few support zones around the 4650 to 4800 area...so the lack of buyer pressure has to be great enough to break downwards through these supported areas... so its best to take one day at a time rather than to project a forecast..
"Normally" a bull market correction is -7 to -10% (extreme ranges from -3 to -20%)
Actually to take an extreme view a sudden 25% drop to 3800 would still have some commentators arguing that the primary up trend is still intact and the bull lives on....Just goes to show how high and how fast this rally has been...
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5025112013.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZX5025112013.png.html)
However the market behaviour this year is showing similar signs to that of an aging Bull ....so to put a wider perspective on this present cyclic Bull market, below is a long term chart (log scale) showing the previous bull market reversing into a bear market reversing to the present bull market....
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5025112013weekly.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZX5025112013weekly.png.html)
winner69
27-11-2013, 01:46 AM
I am gutted Hoop
Looks like another year is going to pass and my projection of NZX50 being 5000 by Xmas is a load of the proverbial again.
One year I'll get it right .....being gross index should help.
But mate .....talk of 3800 has me depressed and after reading Hussman again even that may be optimistic
Surely nzx50 at 5000 by Xmas has to happen in 2014 ....PLEASE SAY YES HOOP
Casino
27-11-2013, 07:30 AM
W69, If the market doesn't tank before Christmas, talk around the Christmas BBQ will be about how much some have made over the last year and when those who missed out return to work they'll be piling in ... 5000 still on the cards ... ;) ... Keep an eye on the idiot index and taxi driver indexes to timing the exit .. ;)
Also keep an eye on the Drury tweeting index. No tweet in 36h makes me nervous and could drag everyone down:
https://twitter.com/roddrury
Casino
27-11-2013, 08:19 AM
haha, I love it!
Trust me, it's the best retail investors have at the moment. They're getting their mates out first before they fill in the rest of us.
....PLEASE SAY YES HOOP
....yes.....
Joshuatree
27-11-2013, 08:58 AM
Bring on the sunny weather and the pre Christmas growth spurt![/QUOTE]
CJ im predicting you're right and we are going to end the year with a positive Rush .:t_up:Yeah baby!!
Mista_Trix
09-12-2013, 09:43 AM
While not directly related to the NZX, for me this kind of information helps inform decision making, maybe others will benefit also .. ?!?!
See the link for a really well done visual representation on the Census data;
http://www.stats.govt.nz/Census/2013-census/profile-and-summary-reports/2013-census-infographic-nzvillage.aspx
Stats have massively lifted their game over the last few years to help keen information digestible.
Toulouse - Luzern
09-12-2013, 10:40 AM
looks like were entering a correction phase as we are nearly down 5% off from the high of 4960. World markets also down from taper talk (unlikely to happen). I am confident this is a buy the dip opportunity as profit taking gets a hold and only the utilities are hitting new lows.
According to Terry Hall in today's Dompost it is overseas fund manager/s and not NZ investors and Mum and Dad that are selling.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/9493272/Fund-managers-dump-Kiwi-firm-on-regulatory-concerns
"The Government seems to be bearing most of the responsibility for a string of sharemarket problems that have hit companies like Chorus, Mighty River and Meridian. This perception appears to be shared by major overseas funds that have been dumping these stocks: with at least one opting to quit other New Zealand investments."
Onion
09-12-2013, 11:56 AM
Cut NZX exposure, says JBWere
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11169446
JB Were said this did not mean that New Zealand equities were necessarily going to decline in 2014. "It simply reflects we don't believe investors are likely to be adequately rewarded for the risks they bear in this market," it said.
5191
http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976501558/2014-facing-different-risks-and-rewards.html
Toulouse - Luzern
15-12-2013, 12:06 PM
This article was in the NZ Herald today.
Brian Gaynor: "Next year an economic cracker."
I hope he is right as I am sure that Polly wants a cracker.
Brian is a sound commentator as an analyst in his early career.
eg Milford Funds Trans Tasman, (Source: Morningstar.co.nz) 30 Nov 2013 6 months 8.28%; 12 months 21.95%.
His opinions, picks and strategy since are fairly sound eg in the Milford Trust...
I well remember 1951 and beyond, affluence and then bust and 1974 more of the same.
Brian is more bullish than my hunch intuition (IMHO & DYOR), but he has a basis set out in the article for his conclusion.
"Next year should be a cracker as far as the New Zealand economy is concerned.
There are strong indications that it will be a once-in-a-generation year, as were 1951 and 1974 when the New Zealand economy grew by 15.6 per cent and 7.2 per cent respectively.
Economic growth is unlikely to be quite as strong as 1951 or 1974 but we now have some similar characteristics, particularly a soft commodities boom and a huge increase in the country's terms of trade index, which made these standout years.
The domestic economy received a huge boost from surging wool prices in 1951, wool and meat in 1974 and buoyant dairy demand at present.
The downside to 1951 and 1974 were rising prices and a strong New Zealand currency, two characteristics that could dominate the domestic economy in the year ahead."
Read more in the article:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11172242
Santiago
16-12-2013, 02:03 AM
However... It would seem often the market goes counter-cyclical to the economy. Look at emerging markets. The markets have tanked during the last year of growth in expectation that the cycle will turn. I wonder if the NZSX hasn't peaked in 2013 on the expectation that 2014 would be great, and now that it looks like it will be, they'll drop in advance of the next expected slowdown. Hope I'm wrong...
Any TA's out there bold and experienced enough to advise us as to whether today's FED announcement ends the NZ50 correction at 5.6% ?
Come on, where are all the top TA's hiding, hoop, blakecb where did he go, he makes good charts ?
Any TA's out there bold and experienced enough to advise us as to whether today's FED announcement ends the NZ50 correction at 5.6% ?
asking a bit much
but there could well be a lot of support in the 46-4700 area as these were previous resistance levels.
MACD hasn't turned yet but looks a bit like it might be about to.
RSI has shown divergence but not perfectly so and should cross the lower threshold before a signal is given
5228
thanks Peat, perhaps the cunliffe correction requires a bit more collective brooding by traders just yet then.
Wow, every Norwegian is on paper now a millionaire due to accumulated oil & gas industry royalties and their sovereign wealth fund.
Crumbs, if all the present Shell, Anadarko and Origin exploration off Southland, Otago and Canterbury were to take off we Southerners might join the club.
What ever happened to that south island independence party ?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-09/all-norwegians-become-millionaire-shareholders-in-world27s-big/5191480
http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/southland-drilling-plan-may-create-hundreds-jobs-5794816
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11183597
Valuegrowth
10-01-2014, 03:41 PM
Don’t know whether it is suitable to post here.
New Zealand market did well along with few markets such as Pakistan and Sri-Lanka when compare with other markets in the Asia Pacific region this week. Is there any reason that New Zealand market is resilient? Is it a good news for New Zealand market?
Valuegrowth
10-01-2014, 04:18 PM
I suspect a lot of it has to do with all the hype over the potential of the NZ economy this year, particularly the HSBC guy saying it could be the best performing economy this year (or something along those lines). Sorry don't have time to find the links bit a quick google search should provide a bit of insight as to why many stocks on the NZX have had such a stellar start to the year!
Thank you. I believe both meat and milk sector will do well here due to demand from emerging countries such as China, Malaysia and Indonesia in the coming decade.
It seems the Cyclic Bull Market correction may be ending, if so it will be another mini type correction.
Confirmations ...1...the correction bottomed out on a support line...which now makes that support line (4675) much stronger in the future
......................2...There was a bullish MA50 break (4810) with the Thursday 9th January close.
......................3...Also resumed its up trend at 4810 (dotted up trend line on chart)
If the correction is over (a higher record high) then expect the NZX50 to reach it's Trading Target of ~5200.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5010012014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZX5010012014.png.html)
winner69
24-01-2014, 08:23 AM
Nice little double top formed up on the NZX50 chart as well. May I ask our good man Hoop for some input?
As long as no death crosses we be OK
winner69
26-01-2014, 08:46 PM
Phew ....the nzx is not overvalued at the moment ....even on th Shiller PE measure. On that measure a pe of 13.88 and below long term median
So we be ok even f th grossly overvalued us market collapses
There is a table in this from Mauldin listing most markets in the world. Marketwinner I am afraid Morocco wasn't listed but stil reckon that Marakeesh Express (ME on the Morocco bourse) s still a goer
Interesting read ....even if you just look at the table
http://d21uq3hx4esec9.cloudfront.net/uploads/pdf/140125_TFTF.pdf
winner69
26-01-2014, 09:09 PM
Interesting winner - I;ve been keeping a close eye on the Shiller P/E ratio of late.
Out of interest, do you know what the ratio value was for the NZX before the last two crises?
No idea ...didn't even know anybody bothered to do this calc for the nzx. Suppose if one the historical PEs one could work out the annual eps and take the 10 year average.
Probably t was somewhere the 19 shown in the max column
winner69
26-01-2014, 09:18 PM
Turmeric
You could be interested in this
http://news.yale.edu/2014/01/17/have-question-about-economics-ask-bob-shiller-nobelist
The man himself answering questions - yours if you have one
Been to the cape in the 90’s, got sunburn a flat and was oddly observed by these hyrax things –
These Shiller cult followers always seen to be expecting the world to end tomorrow, must be a dreadful way to spend one’s life.
Given the US has been above the line for most of the last 20 years, the half glass full news maybe more that the US is getting back normal levels of exuberation, if they are just entering the zone, and multiple expansion is just now beginning, there should be a couple of years in it yet.
From an isolated perspective, doesn’t look to bad for NZ though 13.88 in a range of 9.49 to 20.33.
5389
see that bit of tyre in the corner of it's mouth.
000831
27-01-2014, 11:11 AM
PEAKING SHILLER P/E-10 RATIO FOR THE S&P-500:
As can be seen in below chart, the Shiller P/E-10 ratio closed the year above the psychological important level of 26.00 point, and almost 60 percent of its 160 year mean of 16.50 points. Below the 160-year chart of the Shiller P/E-10, shows us that every time in the 160 years that we have seen the shiller P/E-10 ratio at a level of 26 or higher, the S&P-500 crashed the next year or went the following 2-3 years into a bear- or flat-market.
http://www.pgm-blog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Screen-Shot-2014-01-05-at-1.13.15-AM.png (http://www.pgm-blog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Screen-Shot-2014-01-05-at-1.13.15-AM.png)Current Shiller PE Ratio for the S&P-500: 26.17 -0.01 (-0.89%) 4:33 pm EST, Fri Jan 4
Mean:
16.50
Median:
15.90
Min:
4.78
(Dec 1920)
Max:
44.20
(Dec 1999)
RISING BOND YIELD:
Ladies & Gentlemen, since May of 2013, when the FED first announced their plan to start tapering their bond buying program, the yield of the 10 year-note start rising to close and has closed the first week of 2014 at 3:00 percent as can be seen from below chart.
http://www.pgm-blog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/1-year-chart-10-year-note.png (http://www.pgm-blog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/1-year-chart-10-year-note.png)Most Investors are asking them selves the following question:
Will we see in 2014 a repeat of 1994 a year in which rising bond yield has forced the FED to increase rates?
Due to the fact that most of you might not remember the events of 1994, we here below provide you with a summary:
On Wall Street, 1994 was the year many money managers lost their shirts.
A sharp, unexpected rise in interest rates wrecked the value of bond portfolios and turned profitable trades into money losers. Hedge funds blew up, banks plunged into the red and the resulting shockwaves even hurt the equity market, which reversed a strong start to end down on the year.
In other words, the year 1994 was a year for investors to forget.
But it is also a year that is important to remember. Today, with interest rates at rock-bottom thanks to the US Federal Reserve and other central banks, some bond market veterans are hearing echoes of 1994. What will happen, they ask, when the Fed decides it has done enough to stimulate the economy? Could there be another shock?
The scale of the current bond bull market means that its end could be far more serious than anything seen in 1994.
Apart from the distorting effects of Fed bond buying on the Treasury market, there has also been a change in the size of interest rate-sensitive markets since 1994. The value of outstanding bonds – US$ 37.7 trillion at the end of September 2012 – is three-and-a-half times what it was 19 years ago.
WHEN INVESTING IN 2014, 'THINK LIKE A BANKER':
If you go to a banker and ask for a loan, which type of collateral will your banker accept and why?
Your banker will only accept hard assets in the form of either real-estate or precious metals as a collateral. The main reason for this is, because your banker knows that the prices of both asset classes, although they may fluctuate in the short term, in the longer term they will always go up and that the next peak will always be higher than the previous one (if there is no bubble) and, most importantly, the prices of both Real-Estate and Precious metals can NEVER go to ZERO.
So next time the investment advisor of your bank advises you to sell your Gold and to buy high flying assets like stocks of social media company or bitcoin, ask him if he can make an appointment with you with the credit department of his bank.
In the meeting with the credit department you should only ask him/her this question: Sir/Madam I have a great portfolio full of social media stocks and a lot of Bitcoins. Do you give a loan with these assetsas collateral?
The answer of your credit manager will be your guidline for what to invest in for the long term!
APPLICABLE FAMOUS QUOTES OF JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES:
The events in the global capital markets remind me to the following three famous quotes of John Maynard Keynes:
“The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency."
"By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.”
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
Who is John Maynard Keynes:
John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946), was a British economist who developed the theory that increasing government deficits stimulate a sluggish economy, was long the guiding light of liberal economists. He is considered one of the major economists of the 20th century.
http://www.pgm-blog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/keynes_395.jpg (http://www.pgm-blog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/keynes_395.jpg)These days, he is enjoying a comeback, with all those central banks printing money to stimulate their respective economies.
AS JANUARY GOES, SO GOES THE YEAR:
The January Barometer was first introduced by Yale Hirsch in 1972. The story goes that if the month of January is up, then so goes the rest of the year. Conversely, if the market suffers in the month of January, then the rest of the year will be tough sledding.
For the 64 years from 1950 through 2013, a positive return in January was predictive of a positive return for the year 92.5% of the time. A positive return during the first five trading days of January was predictive of a positive return for the year 90.0% of the time. A negative return in January was predictive of a negative return for the year 54.2% of the time—basically not predictive at all. A negative return during the first five trading days of January was predictive only 50% of the time, amounting to nothing more than a flip of a coin.
In the short first trading week of 2014, the S&P-500, tanked with approx. 1 percent, Bond yield rose slightly and Gold rose with approx. 3.1 percent.
Will the above be the trend for 2014?
PGM CAPITAL COMMENTS:
Bond-yield & Gold:
Last year was almost a perfect storm. Between U.S. stocks rallying hard, India taking actions to make gold less attainable by her citizens, and the spike in bond yields combined with falling inflation expectations, there was no shortage of reasons to not divest the metal.
Gold has been an awful performer since mid September 2011, vastly under performing U.S. markets, with extreme weakness in 2013.
Everyone loved gold up until 2011, and everyone hates it now. The contrarian in me based on Warren Buffett famous quote:
BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFUL AND FEARFUL WHEN OTHERS ARE GREEDY!
says to me that now is the time to add more Gold to my personal portfolio.
The Shiller P/E-10 ratio:
In markets that are dominated by mainly Greed and Fear everything is possible in the short term, but with the Shiller P/E-10 ratio of the S&P-500 at a 5 year high and above 26 points, the chances for the S&P-500 to take a breather in 2014 are higher than 50 procent.
With central banks printing money all over the world and with gold prices far below the average break-even production costs, the chances of a continuation of the secular bull market for gold in 2014 is also higher than 50 percent.
Keynes:
The above mentioned quotes of Keynes, refer to financial bubbles and panics. The actual statement is that, in a crisis situation or periods of (extreme) greed, fear and manipulation, "markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." In particular, Keynes was referring to stock market crashes, frequently resulting from panic selling. Asset bubbles consist of wild speculation in stocks, real estate or other assets. The assets rise in price far more than is justified by any rational economic analysis.
We have seen such situations on several occasions quite recently in the high-tech bubble of the late 1990's (which burst in 2000) and the real estate bubble of 2004-2006 (which burst in 2007), as well as the credit crisis of September-October 2008, and currently the bubble in stock- and bond markets in the West.
When we compare 2013 with 1999 we see the following similarities:
In 1999 technology and dot com, stocks with extreme high valuation doubled or tripled in price.
In 2013 Social media stocks did the same.
In 1999, the Crude Oil price declined with 30 procent to reach a price of US$ 8.90 per barrel on December 31st 1999, its lowest price in 4 years.
In 2013, the Gold price declined with 27 percent, to reach a price of US$ 1,205.00 an ounce on December 31st 2013, its lowest price in 3 years.
In 1999 every body was talking about the New Economy and how the new internet companies will change the world.
In 2013, it was all over social media stocks, how these companies will change the world and that we are now in a new economic order.
Last but not least in 1999 as well as in 2013, we frequently heard these two phrases:
It's Innovation and we live now in a different world than before.
This time it is different.
Early March 2000, the dot com and technology stock boom came to an end and the NASAQ declined with 70 percent and till today haven't reached its peak of March 6th, 2000, of 5048 points, as can be seen from below chart
http://www.pgm-blog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NASDAQ-all-time-chart.png (http://www.pgm-blog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NASDAQ-all-time-chart.png)
Ladies and Gentlemen it is never different and since the first man came on planet earth till today we have had thousands or even millions of innovations and new technologies.
But in all these times one thing has remained the same; THE RULE OF MONEY.
The RULE of MONEY is timeless, and has never changed during the last 5000 years.
People also haven't changed at the end their act is based on GREED and FEAR.
So will 2014 become a repeat of 2000, the year in which the bubble will burst and GREED to turn into FEAR and PANIC!
TIME WILL TELL!!!Until Next Time
Eric Panneflek
Shiller is a smart fellow and we should not ignore the metric he is famous for, it’s also not new news that that we are in a cyclic bull market that will someday end.
However, I’m firmly in the camp that the last 20 years more closely represents present day monetary and fiscal policy than the preceding 20 or 40 years.
Economies are complex, people with many more PhD’s than I will ever have, dedicate their lives to modelling it, and although one metric in isolation is not irrelevant, it does need to be considered in a much greater dynamic context.
My interpretation is that we have probably a year to run, perhaps a little more, albeit perhaps in an environment of increasingly stressful corrections over that timeframe.
If anyone should be looking for their own input, a good place to start is the FED economic research sites, they have a graphical front end which I find a bit clunky and don’t use so much these days;
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/#
The raw trend and modelling data can be found here;
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories
New Zealand RBNZ basic summary data here;
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/
000831
27-01-2014, 01:50 PM
Interesting read there 000831. So I'm just trying to understand where you are coming from. Are you Eric Panneflek?? Or do you work for or with PGM Capital? Seems like a rather random blog post to post up here otherwise.
yeah, copy and paste
"Are you Eric Panneflek?? Or do you work for or with PGM Capital?"
"yeah, copy and paste"
glad we cleared that up :P
BlackPeter
27-01-2014, 03:35 PM
On a different note, this sort of thing worries me....
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/01/26/china-halts-bank-cash-transfers-2/
Interesting find, though not really good news (thread title). Not quite sure, what it could mean? Hopefully just highlighting the inefficiencies of a huge bureaucratic central planning system, potentially combined with some corruption (check : http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/839071.shtml#.UuXDWBA5S00 ).
Wouldn't make a lot of sense to think a country like China with an incredible growth rate and huge foreign currency reserves is running out of cash ... it couldn't be too hard to just print a little bit more (hey - the US are doing that now for years - and they have neither the foreign currency reserves nor the economic growth rate China has).
000831
27-01-2014, 03:43 PM
mmm, yes. I presumed that to mean, YES I am Eric Penneflek and therefore YES I do work for PGM Capital. (as I said, it appears to be a kinda random blog to copy and paste otherwise)
So 000831= Eric Panneflek for now...
Got that all wrong. RANDOM Paste for the answer
000831
27-01-2014, 03:44 PM
Interesting find, though not really good news (thread title). Not quite sure, what it could mean? Hopefully just highlighting the inefficiencies of a huge bureaucratic central planning system, potentially combined with some corruption (check : http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/839071.shtml#.UuXDWBA5S00 ).
Wouldn't make a lot of sense to think a country like China with an incredible growth rate and huge foreign currency reserves is running out of cash ... it couldn't be too hard to just print a little bit more (hey - the US are doing that now for years - and they have neither the foreign currency reserves nor the economic growth rate China has).
China got that issue since this June. Not surprise
Interesting how a topic resurfaces...and looking similar
No point reinventing the wheel and posting another lot of dialogue.....so below is a copy of my post#313 written on 23rd June 2013 from Investing Strategies and Secular Bear Markets thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets/page21)...
What is relevant to this NZX50 thread is that the CAPE is going down UP while the NZX50 index is going up....proving the point that dropping PE's don't always relate to sharp downturns in the share prices....what is happening here in NZ is similar to that of AORDs between 2003-2007 when the rise in the E in PE was faster than the P... (see bottom chart) EDIT: 28/01/14... ERROR.. CAPE is not falling its slowly rising... the forward PE is falling... see post #1390
Also...I should mention that beware of analysts saying the Stock Market is not overvalued when referring to the CAPE or PE mean value........PE mean value means nothing!!!!! All markets are in differing phases of their secular cycle.......we (NZX50, S&P 500 DOW Europe) are experiencing a secular bear cycle,,, that means the Annualised PE or CAPE is in a downtrend.....
At a very mature secular bear market period (downtrending PE values) a PE ratio of 10 could be considered too high and overbought....just how the opposite end the mature secular bull market period (uptrending PE Values) a PE of 22 could be considered too low and oversold......see bull/bear chart below
'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ''''''''''''''
I read in MarketWatch today an article 7 ways to spot a market top (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/7-ways-to-spot-a-market-top-2013-06-24#)...not much help really but there was a Shillers PE Ratio Table listing various Countries which a I found of interest as long as you didn't read the dialogue..."Keep in mind, some markets are dirt cheap for a reason." ...I guess the Author meant Greece but no comment on USA ...so I'll add it "Keep in mind, some markets are expensive for a reason.":D (See the first table below.. I've jazzed it up a bit )
Normally a Secular bull dies somewhere around the CAPE 25 area (see chart 2nd figure below))
That 25 area sometimes doesn't work according to theory when the market gets irrationally overheated as was the case in 1929 and 2000 when the CAPE went to dizzy heights........Just to show how overly cooked the 2000 USA market was the Secular bear is now 13 years old and the CAPE has fallen only to around the area where previous Secular Bulls die.....As Secular markets are measured by distance and not by time this Secular Bear has still got some distance to travel...in actual fact is going the wrong way at the moment due to very low inflation.
Interesting also are the CAPE for NZ and Australia (both in Secular bear cycles)...
With NZ at 13, USA at 23 one might think therefore the USA market will take a bigger hit with the next downturn.....no, it doesn't work as simply as that.
Winner...... Australia's 14 (assuming this figure is correct) down from 17 looks like a Secular Bear...eh?
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PERatioGlobalCAPEShiller.jpg (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PERatioGlobalCAPEShiller.jpg.html)
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PERatioshcillersp500-1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PERatioshcillersp500-1.png.html)
The NZX50 secular bear is tending down nicely as it should do in theory...Interesting to see the PE going down and the index going up.
That happened in Aussi a few years back
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PERatioforwardNZX5010yearchart.jpg (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PERatioforwardNZX5010yearchart.jpg.html)
Nice little double top formed up on the NZX50 chart as well. May I ask our good man Hoop for some input?
NZX50 still looking good not like Wall St which is technically broken.
There is chance that there is double top in the process of forming but its too early to give us any worries that it will become a complete pattern... moosie....It's also too early to apply the percentages of a reversal happening.....but we definitely have to keep an eye on it.....especially when the Cyclic Bull is past its use by date (5 years old)
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5027012014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZX5027012014.png.html)
Hoop, can you post up the historic CAPE you have used for NZ? I'd be really interested to see what it looks like.
Cheers.
I would be interested to see what it looks like too..but the NZX swaps and changes it's indexes frequently making secular data analysis difficult and impossible in some cases...:)
Finding historic data about the NZSE and figuring out which companies were eligible back then for their secular data to be used in this present NZX50 index setup is difficult..
Turmeric...I have to rely on my emails from subscripted sites or dredge Google to find bits then piece it together like a jigsaw puzzle
CAPE NZX50 ***
30th Nov 2012......13.10 (http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/12/a-look-at-cape-valuation-levels-across-32-equity-markets/)
31st May 2013......13.53 (article from marketwatch.com)
31st Dec 2013......13.88 (John Mauldin email) and also http://www.valuewalk.com/tag/cape/
*** The CAPE figures for the NZX50 can't go back any further than 2013 in its pure form unless it is adjusted....The NZX50 was formed in 2003 replacing the NZSE40 which was formed in 1992 so as one can see it's an adjusted guess that the NZX50 is in a secular bear market cycle...
Apart from Shiller's site I think Meb Faber website (http://mebfaber.com/) is the best to go to as he has extended Shillers secular work to cover global sharemarkets including NZ
You have probably noticed from my previous posts I have been mentioning Shillers CAPE but posting a forward PE chart which are two different animals..
Looking back ...It does seem that my previous post #1387 is in error the CAPE is in fact rising, not falling I may have mixed up my PE's...It seems forward PE is falling in relation to the NZX 50 index increasing..not CAPE
Cheers Hoop, yeah I was a bit confused by your post on a couple fronts (The CAPE vs forward PE thing, and I also thought you were saying NZ CAPE and NZX were moving in opp directions).
I had a quick look at Shiller's PE (for the S&P) vs the S&P500 index using monthly data.
Found a positive and highly significant (at the 1% level) correlation between the two for data as far back as the 1950s; corr = 0.7117.
So I graphed the two to have a bit of a closer look from the 80s on. Attached it below. Seems to me to show pretty overwhelming evidence that the two a re pretty well positively correlated and makes me think you can put forward various scenarios depending on where you put you secular line breaks.
Not as easy on the eye as your one mate, but thought it offered a slightly different take to the second graph you posted above.
Thoughts?
5403
Thanks for sharing your analysis figures Turmeric...Basically rule of thumb has analysts fearing the worst when the CAPE falls ...your Stats show the Equity index falls in tandem with a falling CAPE more often than not
..
That 2003-2007 Aussi anomaly proved the theoretical argument that a sharemarket doesn't always necessarily need to fall in tandem with its falling CAPE....(Wall St History shows it does fall in tandem most of the time and you turmeric have proved it as statistically significant)....and interesting to mark those cyclic reversal points you used with respect to CAPE...I said cyclic not secular as you did...Turmeric your chart shows a different and interesting aspect to CAPE/index price relationships...:)
My previous chart marked secular bull/bears according to the secular rules outlined by Crestmont Research (http://www.crestmontresearch.com/stock-market/)...Apparently their chief rule is, a secular bear market cycle can only end when the CAPE reverses from below 10 and shows a confirmed long term up trend.
Santiago
31-01-2014, 10:06 AM
Incredible how quickly sentiment can change... Nasdaq up 1.7%
Santiago
31-01-2014, 10:14 AM
Though actually on reflection I reckon sentiment's pretty consistent right now- sort of like a manic depressive, up, down and all over the place. A few months of gradual incremental growth would do me fine...
Harvey Specter
03-02-2014, 10:47 AM
Not sure the best place to post so here is as good as any:
On the new rating system, the top five stocks are:
Pumpkin Patch,
Bathurst Resources,
Infratil,
Chorus, and
New Zealand Refining,
while the bottom five are
Xero,
Wynyard Group,
Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund,
Auckland International Airport and
Guinness Peat Group.
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/forsyth-barr-drops-five-prong-company-rating-system-dw-151349
Disc, hold 2 from the top group and 3 in the bottom group :0
winner69
03-02-2014, 11:01 AM
It's funny, without doing any serious research on all these companies, if someone offered me a portfolio today, with two options, each made up of those 5 companies, I'd be taking the later option myself ;)
So you want to 'under perform' then turmeric .....on FB terminology
Belg be gutted Patch looks like it the best if the 'out performers' ....only a small pyramid now forbhim
Harvey Specter
03-02-2014, 11:13 AM
It's funny, without doing any serious research on all these companies, if someone offered me a portfolio today, with two options, each made up of those 5 companies, I'd be taking the later option myself ;)Good point but from there perspective, they are only looking at 1 year returns (I think) so that might play some part in it, with both WYN and XRO have a good run so may track sideways, whereas CNU is hoping for a postive blackswan event re regulation
Love to know who's crystal ball Forbar used when picking a number for CNU Dividend yield for the next 12 months....Hope they didn't rifle through my rubbish when I threw mine out....
Hmmm they picked PPL too didn't they!!!.. Belg... did you by chance lose your crystal pyramid paper weight?:D
Casino
03-02-2014, 01:46 PM
Good point but from there perspective, they are only looking at 1 year returns (I think) so that might play some part in it, with both WYN and XRO have a good run so may track sideways, whereas CNU is hoping for a postive blackswan event re regulation
If xro and wyn are the rock stars, then cnu has to be the venue! I see cnu as an outstanding and reasonably safe opportunity.
Santiago
04-02-2014, 08:19 AM
Oh dear, US markets tanked last night... Could be a rough patch.
JohnnyTheHorse
04-02-2014, 08:57 AM
US markets are seriously technically broken. Things are likely to get pretty messy, she's in for a good sized correction. Bit of TA helps a lot folks.
winner69
04-02-2014, 09:21 AM
What kind of correction you talking there mate - in terms of magnitude? You thinking 20%?
Moosie gleefully says buys the dips
If something drastic is to happen it want be a correction, it be a collapse I think
This guy reckons 'fair value' of the S&P is about 50% of where it is today
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140203.htm
Fair Value if one wanted a 10% pa return in next 10 years. Currently S&P priced/valued to make 2.7%pa nominal returns over the next 10 years
EVen if you dont want to read the article one interesting snippet -
The latest data from the NYSE shows equity margin debt at a new all-time high. Relative to GDP, the current 2.6% level was eclipsed only once – at the March 2000 market peak. In the context of the most extreme bullish sentiment in decades, and reliable valuation metrics about double their historical norms prior to the late-1990’s bubble (price/revenue, market cap/GDP, Tobin’s Q, properly normalized price/forward operating earnings, price to cyclically-adjusted earnings), we view present market conditions as dangerously speculative.
Oh the joys of QE and cheap money .... now the unknown consequences
winner69
04-02-2014, 09:59 AM
I remember the same thing being said during the June/July Asian correction, as well as the one after that. Keep repearing it and it will eventually be rightat some point eh?
No doubt he will be right one day
What happens then ......buy BEAR
winner69
04-02-2014, 11:16 AM
History, turmeric. Do you see a bubble or Lehman Brothers here? I sure don't. The US economy is improving and QE is being reduced. That should be a great sign if the market were rational!
QE being reduced. Yes but still significant stimulus though
And wasn't it weak reports on U.S. manufacturing and construction and disappointing auto sales that spooked punters - yes a recovering economy indeed
But isn't it all about market valuations / sentiment - how much is a punter prepared to pay for a buck of earnings
couta1
04-02-2014, 11:21 AM
First and foremost I'm not making the claim that it is or isn't the start of something bigger, merely interested in why Sparky seems sure that it isn't.
Secondly what percentage of people picked the 87 bubble? the sub prime induced GFC?, etc etc. Hind sight is twenty-twenty though right ;)
I would argue that there are a number of macro issues that could trigger a crash right now for example how sure are you that the Chinese banking system is as solid as a rock? How sure are you that markets will be able to sustain these levels post QE? how sure are you that current troubles in emerging markets are merely the start of bigger things to come??
Again, I'm not saying that I am necessarily swaying one way or the other, but I my ears prick up will people seem so certain one way or the other.
So the question still stands to Sparky, whose investment strategy (from the face of it) I genuinely respect, why so certain this is not the start of something deeper?
Tumeric i think by the sounds of it the answer you seek would only come from divine revelation or someone with an outstanding gift of prophecy
winner69
04-02-2014, 11:22 AM
One weak month during terrible winter storms means a crash? I think US investors are looking for a reason to profit take. I don't believe this is the start of anything significant at all.
I always wonder what the punters do with their cash when they 'take profits'
When I can't work that out I wonder why do punters buy when others are taking profits ...at they losers or something?
I am rather thick and dim witted at times
NZX50 still looking good not like Wall St which is technically broken.
There is chance that there is double top in the process of forming but its too early to give us any worries that it will become a complete pattern... moosie....It's also too early to apply the percentages of a reversal happening.....but we definitely have to keep an eye on it.....especially when the Cyclic Bull is past its use by date (5 years old)
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5027012014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZX5027012014.png.html)
Update
A one year chart....even with this big down day the technicals aren't too bad..there are sell signals appearing and that possible double top looks more troublesome...however so far there's no major damage....
The double top pattern is confirmed when the 4675 support breaks....so that 4675 area is the area to watch
The MA50 break on its own is not a worry as it breaks often during a Cyclic Bull Market Cycle ..it become more serious though when the MA200 breaks (as the case with the DOW today)
The NZX50 looks great when comparing with the DOW (a cot case) and the S&P500 (major breaks)
Caution is needed though (especially the dip buyers) ...the NZX50 is an old bull..
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5004022014.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZX5004022014.gif.html)
winner69
04-02-2014, 12:13 PM
Your sarcasm knows no bounds my friend ;)
It was a serious question moosie
And nobody has ever given me a reasonable answer
Maybe profit taking en masse is just a phrase commentators and analysts use when they don't really know what causes a market to go down
In4a$
04-02-2014, 12:49 PM
I always wonder what the punters do with their cash when they 'take profits'
When I can't work that out I wonder why do punters buy when others are taking profits ...at they losers or something?
I am rather thick and dim witted at times
The markets full of winners and losers winner69, one week the winners are taking profits from the loosers, next week the loosers become winners, whilst the long term investor just watches his margin steadily grow ( most times )
The markets full of winners and losers winner69, one week the winners are taking profits from the loosers, next week the loosers become winners, whilst the long term investor just watches his margin steadily grow ( most times )
Hmmm... Logic has it from your post..that.... the market slowly rises in the long term therefore long termers are winners (most times)..... Applying the same logic indicates the shorter term alternating winners and losers must also be cumulative winners over that longer period because as you implied, that same market is rising in the long term...eh?:)
In4a$
04-02-2014, 01:32 PM
Hmmm... Logic has it from your post..that.... the market slowly rises in the long term therefore long termers are winners (most times)..... Applying the same logic indicates the shorter term alternating winners and losers must also be cumulative winners over that longer period because as you implied, that same market is rising in the long term...eh?:)
Yeap, unless you loose more when you loose than you win when you win. :cool:
winner69
04-02-2014, 01:38 PM
Hmmm... Logic has it from your post..that.... the market slowly rises in the long term therefore long termers are winners (most times)..... Applying the same logic indicates the shorter term alternating winners and losers must also be cumulative winners over that longer period because as you implied, that same market is rising in the long term...eh?:)
The bit I don't get (thick as I am) is that todays 'profit takers' seem to be the same as next weeks 'bargain hunters' ..... who do they buy their bargains off?
Santiago
04-02-2014, 01:51 PM
The bit I don't get (thick as I am) is that todays 'profit takers' seem to be the same as next weeks 'bargain hunters' ..... who do they buy their bargains off?
Next week's profit takers
Ohh...by the way...
Statement of Fact:..most investors have above average intelligence....
Logic as per statement of Fact ....... all investors should therefore be fully invested at the bottom or near bottom... and totally "out" near or at the Top
But In Reality:....Most investors are fully invested at the top and are mostly out at the bottom...
Using Reality logic:......When nearly all investors are fully invested this indicates in reality that a Top is close....:cool:
Even more logic:...price is affected by supply and demand...... increased number of confident buyers over sellers pushes the price higher..
If you don't believe the reality Logic is true then combine Logic as per statement of fact and logic of price/demand...the top is the bottom and the bottom is the top.......paradox:p
Whipmoney
04-02-2014, 02:06 PM
The bit I don't get (thick as I am) is that todays 'profit takers' seem to be the same as next weeks 'bargain hunters' ..... who do they buy their bargains off?
My understanding of a "profit-taker" is someone who wants to de-risk their exposure to a given stock, hence they they execute a sell order in order to liquidate some or all of their position.
Logic would suggest they will look for another stock or wait until the above mentioned stock is cheaper before they re-enter.
Like you I don't really understand this concept as often people profit-take/de-risk and exit a given stock because it has performed above their expectations, i.e. they seek to de-weight successful picks.
Personally I believe that if a stock is a winner you should continue to hold until you feel it is over-valued (relative to earnings) and that the weighting has little bearing on your overall risk.
The bit I don't get (thick as I am) is that todays 'profit takers' seem to be the same as next weeks 'bargain hunters' ..... who do they buy their bargains off?
probably the guy who sold his house and Ferraris
zigzag
04-02-2014, 02:36 PM
Turmeric. "The World In 2014" put out by the "Economist" magazine, features a moose wearing rose-tinted glasses on the cover. Wish I knew how to post it on Sharetrader.
Copper
04-02-2014, 03:25 PM
They found me...
5429
Good photo....by the way I heard Bill D on radio at 3 pm.....Hope all ok ...regards
Copper
04-02-2014, 03:35 PM
The Mayor.....from posts the other day I was connecting a few dots.
My understanding of a "profit-taker" is someone who wants to de-risk their exposure to a given stock, hence they they execute a sell order in order to liquidate some or all of their position.
Logic would suggest they will look for another stock or wait until the above mentioned stock is cheaper before they re-enter.
Like you I don't really understand this concept as often people profit-take/de-risk and exit a given stock because it has performed above their expectations, i.e. they seek to de-weight successful picks.
Personally I believe that if a stock is a winner you should continue to hold until you feel it is over-valued (relative to earnings) and that the weighting has little bearing on your overall risk.
Not always Whip........derisking is similar to my above mentioned chart discipline..buy near supports, sell near resistances...if the price breaks the resistance it become a support and that seller buys back in at a higher price..The same applies at the other end if a buyer buys in at a support and the price drops and breaks the support and becomes near the top of the resistance that buyer quickly sells out for loss because the share got more riskier....The logic is simple ...risk v reward...the risk is always higher nearer a resistance than it is at a support therefore coming back in at a higher price than you sold out you are entering a position of lower risk...remember the rule accumulate in uptrends (average up).
Buyer v seller pool (Winners dilemma)...simple Market forces and its consequences..eh!.... Market price is the price point when at the last transaction buyers = sellers...the price trend is the adjustments to keep that buyer = seller equilibrium.......we all know about market forces, that obvious.....but...what about the not so obvious that Winners on about....
What happens when the market seems to do no wrong, confidence is high and exurbant, investors from all other markets flood in and all would-be investors have bought in up to their maximum ...after all their buy in the dips transactions?????The sharemarket has become everything you dreamed about and the countries ecomony has recovered....happy days!!!!!!!!!....sharemarket booms????......................................... ...........
NOOO it doesn't........
You can't buy into a dip if you are fully invested, have run out of liquid cash and the bank won't lend you any more on margin..... ...Profit takers and traders are perceived to be the baddies but in a bull market these people are the tonic for the bull as the market corrects and they profit from each one by releasing liquidity into the market......as the corrections get shallower and shallower there is less and less profit and forces the profit taker to take the buy and hold strategy...thereby creating a buyer shortage and people perceiving the market to go higher are not going to sell..
Dividends alone won't keep the momentum going...
...so volume drops...momentum slows...Price stagnation.....the bear seeds have been planted....The market has been so much of a success that only a very large correction or a cyclic reversal to a bear will fix, by allowing a build up of momentum (-ve this time) and freeing up the liquidity.....At this point of time, other market start to look more attractive..with the economy boom comes new entrants...new businesses start up ,expansion, logistic investment, financial rates start to rise with the credit demand,etc... all help to suck available money away from the equity market and keeps the momentum low
Market physics at work....simple really..
Whipmoney
04-02-2014, 04:05 PM
Not always Whip........derisking is similar to my above mentioned chart discipline..buy near supports, sell near resistances...if the price breaks the resistance it become a support and that seller buys back in at a higher price..The same applies at the other end if a buyer buys in at a support and the price drops and breaks the support and becomes near the top of the resistance that buyer quickly sells out for loss because the share got more riskier....The logic is simple ...risk v reward...the risk is always higher nearer a resistance than it is at a support therefore coming back in at a higher price than you sold out you are entering a position of lower risk...remember the rule accumulate in uptrends (average up).
That's an interesting view of the market (and more specifically risk) and something I had honestly never previously considered.
So what you are saying is that a stock is less risky at $1.50 where $1.50 is the support, as opposed to $1.20 when $1.20 is the resistance?
I guess that makes sense from a T/A'ers perspective of risk as you perceive that a stock is more likely to decline/retrace if it is near the resistance point but is logically incorrect from an fundamental or absolute view of risk.
The fundamental view would suggest that all else being equal, a stock is more risky when its price is higher than lower. So if there were opportunities to buy say PEB this week at the following entry points $1.50, $1.60 and $1.70 then the least risky price would be $1.50 as all else being equal you are risking the LEAST capital per share whilst receiving greater total upside (up to 20c per share) than the other prices.
From an absolute view of risk this makes sense as your principal risk isn't volatility, rather credit risk (i.e the company going insolvent and being worthless). As such you want to pay as little as possible in order to maximise your risk:return trade-off.
PS: In the rare event that you interested in the concept of risk then I would recommend the following great books:
- Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter Bernstein
- The Black Swan by Nicholas Taleb.
I think too commonly investors perceive volatility as the principal risk whereas credit (default) risk should be your principal concern if you're buying and holding. Not too mention regulatory risk (Chorus), Political Risk (the power companys) etc.
couta1
04-02-2014, 04:28 PM
That's an interesting view of the market (and more specifically risk) and something I had honestly never previously considered.
So what you are saying is that a stock is less risky at $1.50 where $1.50 is the support, as opposed to $1.20 when $1.20 is the resistance?
I guess that makes sense from a T/A'ers perspective of risk as you perceive that a stock is more likely to decline/retrace if it is near the resistance point but is logically incorrect from an fundamental or absolute view of risk.
The fundamental view would suggest that all else being equal, a stock is more risky when its price is higher than lower. So if there were opportunities to buy say PEB this week at the following entry points $1.50, $1.60 and $1.70 then the least risky price would be $1.50 as all else being equal you are risking the LEAST capital per share whilst receiving greater total upside (up to 20c per share) than the other prices.
From an absolute view of risk this makes sense as your principal risk isn't volatility, rather credit risk (i.e the company going insolvent and being worthless). As such you want to pay as little as possible in order to maximise your risk:return trade-off.
Above sounds good enough for me and has proven to be true in my case in a negative sense unfortunately in a lot of my holdings,can't see what's wrong with buying low and selling high whether you use FA or are a trader bottom line is to make some profit after all isn't it?
winner69
04-02-2014, 05:02 PM
Wiki says the occasion of profit taking itself indicates an upward market trend.
So last nights fall was not really a correction or whatever .....just a bit of profit taking in an upward trend .... implication the upward trend will continue
Nobody has given me any idea what the profit takers are doing with their cash in the time they reneter the market as 'bargain hunters'
And still none the wiser as to buys these shares off the 'profit takers' .... except the suggestion that they could be next weeks profit takers .... which really means the profit takers who took profits last night are rather stupid (even if they were derisking as Hoop says)
simla
04-02-2014, 05:17 PM
Anybody seen this? http://howestreet.com/2014/02/central-banker-throwdown/
"The trouble in emerging markets is just beginning." ... "the whole concept of manufacturing with low-cost, low-skilled labor is quickly going the way of the dinosaurs."
As I understand him, this is about world stress affecting EM because they haven't built home markets during the good times, and afterwards will be different than before.
In4a$
04-02-2014, 05:25 PM
Wiki says the occasion of profit taking itself indicates an upward market trend.
So last nights fall was not really a correction or whatever .....just a bit of profit taking in an upward trend .... implication the upward trend will continue
Nobody has given me any idea what the profit takers are doing with their cash in the time they reneter the market as 'bargain hunters'
And still none the wiser as to buys these shares off the 'profit takers' .... except the suggestion that they could be next weeks profit takers .... which really means the profit takers who took profits last night are rather stupid (even if they were derisking as Hoop says)
I think you have mistaken those selling today or yesterday as profit takers, when most would have been stopping loses. In a stop loss situation I find I often have to buy back in at a higher price if I get it wrong, but thats better than looking at a big loss if things went the other way and prices kept falling.
Most of the profit takers were doing that last week or the week before when market was at a high.
winner69
04-02-2014, 05:43 PM
But the guys and gals on CNBC were yelling profit taking and then a lot of headlines say profit taking .....even though many were spooked
couta1
04-02-2014, 05:56 PM
But the guys and gals on CNBC were yelling profit taking and then a lot of headlines say profit taking .....even though many were spooked
Profit taking seems to be the new buzz phrase a waste bucket term that encompasses every reason for a market down day or trend without having to explain anything
In4a$
04-02-2014, 07:54 PM
The doomsayers come out quick and have their say when market is going down.
The investors will be be busy buying up at reduced prices, waiting for the next cycle.
percy
04-02-2014, 08:22 PM
Thanks for posting that article.
I learnt that I am not " kind of a fairy."
Good to know.!!
Leftfield
04-02-2014, 08:50 PM
Thanks Sparky - a good perspective and good advice.
winner69
04-02-2014, 09:22 PM
. Financial world shaken by 4 bankers' apparent suicides in a week
http://rt.com/business/russell-investments-chief-economist-dead-564/
Apparently that William Broeksmit mentioned was trying to unwind 70 trillion of swaps and other derivatives when he retired from Deutsche Bank ....maybe it all became too hard and led to his unfortunate demise
Maybe these guys know there bosses are in it up to their neck and no way back and couldn't face life any more ...sad
Some say the degree of all this paper money is one even higher than pre GFC
Just another conspiracy theory .....but often they are true
winner69
04-02-2014, 09:39 PM
Whole lot of speculation there...
Of course it's speculation ....the sort of stuff you don't read in the mainstream press
Here's some of that speculation .....with some (substantiated?) numbers
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2014/01/on-death-and-derivatives/
percy
04-02-2014, 09:57 PM
Reads like there are some big haircuts about to happen.!!!
And just like that, my favourite blog "The Reformed Broker", posts on dips, corrections crashes and more. (http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2014/02/03/a-field-guide-to-stock-market-corrections-2/) I post in full to assist people in reading what I think is a very useful perspective. But if TRB is not a daily read for you, it should be.
5430
re:...A handy field guide to stock market corrections below (data via Dow Jones, Morningstar, Bloomberg):....
Garbage journalism!!!!!!!
Sorry Sparky I know you didn't write it but I'm hot under the collar with this article...It's a one sided, irresponsible argument which if the person is an experienced Financial Manager I would question the motive why it was written!!!
This sort of stuff can sway the less experienced investor into losing a lot of money....Yes the facts overall are probably true..but you can't use overall statistics in forever revolving forward cycle...the law of a market cycle says it always moves forward to completion at various speeds, it may speed up and spin rapidly, slow, stop, but it can never reverse.....Lets use an example..there are 50 spikes on a wheel, but one is broken therefore there's an overall ~2% chance the wheel will stop on the broken spike....now lets apply the law...the wheel moves forward 1 spike per second on average but that average time can vary (remember.. it can't move backwards) after 10 seconds this writer says the chance is 2% after 20 seconds its still 2%...thats total bullsh!t!!!!
Lets narrow the argument down to how I look at things.
1 ...he mentioned secular bull markets but not secular bear markets...The DOW and S&P 500 are not presently in secular bull markets they have been in secular bear market cycle since the year 2000. The NZX50 is also believed to be in a secular bear cycle..... The chances of capital gain when buying in the dip near the top of a cyclic bull market cycle within a secular bear market cycle is next to nothing for up to the life of that secular bear cycle (lifespan averages 16 to 18 years). see investing in secular bear markets thread
2...He mentions most bull market corrections are mild...27 out of 58 have been above 10% .......This maybe true overall but the question that should be answered is what the chances of a correction being a very large correction/reversal 20+% after the cyclic bull market cycle 4th birthday ...I'll answer it...its extremely high!!!...guess what.. the bull turns 5 next month for DOW, S&P500 and the NZX50
I like the table:) 5 to 10% is refreshing......The writer obviously does'nt read this Sharetrader forum....with the last correction it was 7% on the NZX50 you would've thought the posters on sharechat had their throats cut....There's a lot of new investors now and many haven't experienced a 9 or 10 % correction let me tell you ..it hurts and it definitely not refreshing...In the last 2.5 years the NZX50 hasn't had a correction larger than 7.5%......
Some more useless trivia from me...
Here is an addition to Sparky's table post.
Small % declines only require small % rallies to get back the losses...however this equation is exponential in nature.
During the last bear market cycle (2007 -2009) the S&P500 buy and hold portfolio declined 57% therefore a bull market rally of +132% is needed to get back that loss.
Due to this exponential nature one can expect their buy and hold portfolio recovery back to square one to take many bull years...
As seen from the table below the huge difference between a Great Recession to that of a Depression...The S&P500 got severely mauled (-57%) during the 2007 -2009 bear market cycle when USA economy experienced a great recession. Spare a thought for Greece, the Athens stock market (ASE) went from ~5300 to ~600 (~90%)during its 2008-2011 bear market cycle when Greece plunged into a lengthy depression...The good news is in the last 18 months the ASE was one of the top performing sharemarkets as it went up ~100% after its ~90% drop the bad news is the ASE needs to rally ~900% to break even from its ~90% drop ..to put it into perspective the ASE would need two more years performing as the best sharemarket in the world with 100%/pa performances ...This task would seem impossible as the DOW in its last 113 years managed +82% in 1915...its next best year is +67% in 1933 straight after its depression bear cycle....
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/correctionpercentages.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/correctionpercentages.png.html)
Snow Leopard
05-02-2014, 01:11 AM
Garbage journalism!!!!!!!
...Lets use an example..there are 50 spikes on a wheel, but one is broken therefore there's an overall ~2% chance the wheel will stop on the broken spike....now lets apply the law...the wheel moves forward 1 spike per second on average but that average time can vary (remember.. it can't move backwards) after 10 seconds this writer says the chance is 2% after 20 seconds its still 2%...thats total bullsh!t!!!!
The correct analogy would be a wheel where there is a 2% chance that a spoke will break. It does not matter how much the wheel revolves the probability that the next spoke will break remains 2%.
98% probability of Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
winner69
05-02-2014, 06:10 AM
Phew - panic over. as the guy said on CNBC the pullback is giving good entry points
But better hurry before new highs are reached again
The bargain hunters are out in force rebuking the stocks the profit takers sold the other day
Phew - panic over. as the guy said on CNBC the pullback is giving good entry points
But better hurry before new highs are reached again
The bargain hunters are out in force rebuking the stocks the profit takers sold the other day
Yes very pleased, was worried when the European ones started dropping! UK data positive.
Whipmoney
05-02-2014, 09:19 AM
Personally i'm not too concerned about the day to day movements or even cycles of the market.
If you're buying (and holding) stocks that are well UNDER-valued then they will have less of a prospensity to decline through adverse market conditions and a greater propensity to climb in bullish conditions.
This is the ALPHA (excess returns) over and above the BETA (general market swings)
To clarify, the author is Josh Brown, aka The Reformed Broker, who is the CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a successful book writer "Backstage a Wall Street", and regular CNBC commentator.
http://ritholtzwealth.com/about-us/
as for the statement re aged bulls, I personally wonder about this. Do remember the fall in 2011 was quite deep and fast including intraday trading on one of the bad days, which some argue that a bear market did occur briefly. That would arguably mean we are in a 3 year bull run, rather than a 5 year run. I'll see if I can find the article regarding this because it was food for thought. See bullet point 5 above re S&P500.
Hi Sparky...yeah I did a bit of tech work on that correction at the time...Its unbelievable that there is no universal set of rules (parameters) defining the start or end of cyclic cycles...I dredged the internet and got all sorts of results ..basically in the end I dismissed the financial media single parameter defintion of 20+% drop...why? because you would have to say a 1 day flash crash due to fat fingers would have to be called a bear cycle which is stupid so there has to be a time parameter as well..The academic boffins use a algorithm designed for business cycles... converting that for stockmarket cycles the academics found that around 20% drop a minimum period of 4 months is needed...with a 25% drop the minimum is 3 months....however I have heard of 25% spikes called a correction I guess the too short of time frame applied here...Anyway Sparky I guess Josh Brown has his own set of Bear Market guidelines as do some others.......Does it make a difference in the grand scheme of things?..I think they do...buying into corrections is dangerous when the bull is old...not so risky with a young bull.
I mention 2011 as a correction because in my mind it failed both the DOW Theory.. fundamental ..and Tech fuzzy definitions of a new bear cycle.....the DOW and S&P 500 were ~20% corrections and it spiked down suddenly and lasted only about 70days...so applied the fuzzy time parameter as being too short...There is the other fuzzy point of when to start the cycle (S&P500)...do you start it at its top (head)1363 or 2 months later just shy of another top 1353 (shoulder)??.... the NZX50 had no fuzzy parameters...it had a better shape and time frame to call it a bear cycle but failed because it fell only 10%...
A bull cycle isn't always a consistent uptrend ...as I said cycles can slow down speed up or stop..A sleeping bull (stopped) have been known to last for a year or two
The Aords however created more discussion...it did fit most of everyone's differing rules of a bear cycle only just a a couple of % more than WallSt and a bit longer...so should Wall St be included too ...I say no as you see clearly on the charts below a bull market correction has little influence on the overall bull cycle trend but a cyclic reversal to a bear cycle has a marked trend change as seen with the Aord chart....so while the NZX50 bull is definietly 5years old the AORDs is only 2.5 years or 1.5 years old take your pick...again the parameter rules are blurred and fuzzy ..I
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=djia&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=1643&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=12&rand=2024951219&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1 http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=nzx50&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=1392984&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=12&rand=1323478156&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=SPX&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=3377&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=12&rand=1383359785&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1 http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=aord&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=123590&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=12&rand=1742220715&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1
Santiago
07-02-2014, 08:43 AM
I wasn't sure whether to position myself for the impending crash, or to buy the dip, so in the end did nothing. 9 times out of 10 the best strategy!
Bobcat.
07-02-2014, 10:40 AM
Look out for a head and shoulder pattern emerging. This week's earlier big drop in the S&P500, DJIA and NASDAQ is no aberration. Sell on the shoulder, then sit on the sidelines with cash for a month or two (or better still buy into precious metals on their next dip).
Trading to it,
BC
Bobcat.
07-02-2014, 10:58 AM
BC I hope you read my update on the gold thread. If anything it is NOT time to buying PMs! The smart money bought a day or two after gold bottomed at $1180 again and is now selling hard into the rallies.
Yes I did Moosie, but did you notice that in my post above I suggested buying PMs on a dip?
Gold and Silver have pivoted over the past couple of months at 1175USD and 19.00USD respectively, with Gold now in a upward trend, IMO, and silver soon to follow. All eyes on US nonfarm payroll and unemployment figures being released at 2:30am tonight (NZST).
Whipmoney
07-02-2014, 12:30 PM
In a normal world the economy growing at a healthy rate is a prerquisite for a jump in yhe markets. The opposite is true now due to stimulus but I believe we are on the ripping point where we cross over back into reality and fundamentals. A pause here around 16,000 DOW would be good for these fundamentals to catch up. I believe this"correction" was needed and should be viewed as healthy. However, it is far from the run-away screaming scenario a lot have made it out to be as the bandwagon started pulling away. We will see tomorrow as one report doth not make a trend!
Corrections are good / dellusional markets are bad.
couta1
07-02-2014, 12:50 PM
Looks like where has the Snakk thread gone has also been pulled at this rate were all going to run out of Snakks:cool:
In4a$
07-02-2014, 01:14 PM
Looks like where has the Snakk thread gone has also been pulled at this rate were all going to run out of Snakks:cool:
Cant comment on SNK at all Is it under Chinese/Russian government rule or something ?
couta1
07-02-2014, 01:19 PM
Cant comment on SNK at all Is it under Chinese/Russian government rule or something ?
Yes how bizzare still a listed and tradable stock but us holders have no vehicle to discuss it?
Harvey Specter
07-02-2014, 01:24 PM
Please dont ruin this thread as well!
If you want to discuss SNK, start a new thread and keep it to talking about the stock, limit ramping, downramping, etc. It was rediculous the attention it got compared to many other good shares on the NZX.
000831
07-02-2014, 01:26 PM
Looks like where has the Snakk thread gone has also been pulled at this rate were all going to run out of Snakks:cool:
Be careful with that one, keep silent till it lists in ASX in March. I guess what we said here might have had impact on its ASX listing. Before threads were deleted, if we google key words "snakk media" , the threads ranked after official website on top. When those pre-listing private placements investment bankers, analysts and private fund managers search the company, they will see those negative public opinions. As a result, it may have influence on the listing. The company might have request to ST admin for the issue. Admin also may face pressure. After deleting, when you google "snakk media", you find nothing negative, but news and official website. So don't comment SNK in any other threads.
remembering of course that better than expected pay roll tends to imply faster than expected FED tapering and equity market declines. That is where I'm a little confused about your comment, not to mention it seemed to come during a discussion on gold so I thought maybe you were saying you are bullish on gold re expected payroll numbers..
Yeah agree Turmeric..
Employment numbers are a lagging indicator within the economic cycle...increased numbers of employed people usually helps to push up inflation...
Inflation is the primary driver of the sharemarket because it pushes down upon the PE ratio..which means the earnings will have to increase to keep the sharemarket from falling....
What a few people (including me) are worried about is when this record busting run of high margin growth is going to end (its an unsustainable state in nature)...With an economy expected to be strong, inflation will also be expected to happen ..... If the scenario of lower earnings (due to lower margins + cost to hire workers) combine with rising inflation the equity market will be caught with a double whammy...this won't be a pretty sight...As there are some brilliant minds running the FED and other areas of power, you can bet your boots they are already working on this possible scenario and making sure it won't happen quickly, at best they will try to let the air out of this balloon slowly and hope the strong economy in the near future will come to the rescue to nullify this scenario......time will tell...eh?
So Far So Good
Whipmoney
07-02-2014, 02:03 PM
.
Inflation is the primary driver of the sharemarket because it pushes down upon the PE ratio..which means the earnings will have to increase to keep the sharemarket from falling....
I don't buy that.
Short-term the market is driven by investor sentiment (which affects supply & demand) and long-term by corporate earnings.
I'm not sure how inflation can be the prime driver of the share-market when inflation is instrinically linked to Aggregate or more specifically consumer demand, whilst demand for shares is somewhat instrinsically tied to the investment function of GDP. If more money in the economy is invested, then more money chasing returns leads to a bidding up of stocks and in turn a lowering of the instrinsic yield on those stock (as indicated by declining P/E's).
Annecdotal and empirical evidence shows that the Stock Market does best (on average) when inflation is moderate (i..e around 2% - 3%) however bull markets can occur in both high inflationary and deflationary environments.
winner69
07-02-2014, 02:41 PM
Inflation and the sharemarket
This is worthwhile reading (closely) (and thinking about)
The Y-curve on Slide 21 is quite intriguing
http://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Financial-Physics-Presentation.pdf
winner69
07-02-2014, 02:48 PM
Hoop ..you must have upset a few and they have PM'd you to say so
Your PM box is full mate
000831
07-02-2014, 03:52 PM
Demand Drive inflation with low interest rate environment, NZX is breaking to 5000 soon.
winner69
07-02-2014, 04:13 PM
Demand Drive inflation with low interest rate environment, NZX is breaking to 5000 soon.
Hope so mate
I have been wrong for the last two years saying 5000 by Xmas
This year maybe?
You would have thought that a decent load of reinvested dividends would have got I ther by now, but alas my forecast was tong ...twice
winner69
07-02-2014, 06:09 PM
Thanks winner.
I have afew concerns about the slides that I just saw.
1) I don't see any obvious relationship between the two (inflation and PE). I could probably connect the dots and draw a poodle that reflected as much of a relationship that they have
2) There is no explanation as to why they believe such a trend exists (I would want some kind of interpretation / explanation from a macro/micro perspective to really start to consider their theory in more detail - maybe it's in their book?)
3) Slide 21 states "the impact of rising inflation or deflation in the P/E ratio...." CPI inflation is a point in time measure which a scatter plot of CPI on PE can not reflect. Therefore the Y slide can not show anything about rising inflation (only inflation / deflation) maybe that is just poor wording from them but for me it is indicative of the quality of their work.
Hopefully hoop will summarise the theory behind the statement and then maybe I will get a better handle on it.
For now though I'm not sure that Crestmont slide show does much to convince me of anything...
That's a shame.
Maybe it is the terminology used but that abbreviated presentation supports a lot of what both you and hoop are saying, which is almost the same anyway.
Whip posted (you sort of agreed?) - Annecdotal and empirical evidence shows that the Stock Market does best (on average) when inflation is moderate (i..e around 2% - 3%) however bull markets can occur in both high inflationary and deflationary environments.
Doesn't the Y-curve thing on his chart on slide 21 support that statement, esp if you think about the cyclical behaviour of the PE ratio
Maybe Hoop can explain it better
winner69
08-02-2014, 12:42 AM
Turmeric, you a Dr yet?
Hope your thesis isn't on the relationship between stock markets and inflation. If so I had better stop arguing with you eh
Or did you just concentrate on mundane things like business cycles?
Just curious
winner69
08-02-2014, 07:03 AM
remembering of course that better than expected pay roll tends to imply faster than expected FED tapering and equity market declines. That is where I'm a little confused about your comment, not to mention it seemed to come during a discussion on gold so I thought maybe you were saying you are bullish on gold re expected payroll numbers.
So the payroll numbers were weak, a disaster really, much weaker than moosie would have expected anyway after the previous months number that was an anomaly
As you pointed out turmeric (at least the inverse of what you said) the weak job numbers is good news and the US markets rally strongly.
I take heart from ths guy . “The market’s bottom this week has the potential to be a significant bottom as we’ve seen signs of major capitulation by investors as evidenced by ETF fund flows in the world’s largest ETF,” Puplova writes.
Up up and away for the nzx next week
winner69
08-02-2014, 07:10 AM
All this weirdness and things not seeming to be at all logical reminds me of this joke about economists.
When an economist says the evidence is "mixed," he means that theory says one thing and data says the opposite.
Santiago
08-02-2014, 08:32 AM
... Up up and away for the nzx next week
You'd have to think so if the Dow (up almost 1% today) and the Nasdaq (up 1.5%) is your cue.
Anyone have strong views on share buy backs? Apple has bought back $14 billion in the last 10 days- seems to have held the SP above $500 and now propelled it. I suppose they do have over $150b to play with. IFT did the same and the SP has been tepid. I'm no expert but I'd prefer companies to invest in growth rather than buy back stock, though I do like the confidence it installs when a company bets on itself.
The US unemployment rate falling to 6.6% seems to have fired US market’s today.
This one point fall in January to 6.6% followed by the three point fall in December put’s the unemployment rate well off the three year trend line, this in conjunction with much lower non farm payrolls in both December and January seemingly provides for two consecutive months of reasonably anomalous data.
Maybe its extreme weather related maybe not, it is though outside of seasonal adjustment.
I just wonder if a reversion back closer to the unemployment trendline, presently 7.0%, over the next few months may catalyse a much larger sentiment driven correction, let's wait and see.
The correct analogy would be a wheel where there is a 2% chance that a spoke will break. It does not matter how much the wheel revolves the probability that the next spoke will break remains 2%.
98% probability of Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
NO!!! (put your glasses on) ...PT
I said one broken spike as the example of the 50 spike wheel ... 49 not broken +1 broken... I mention nothing about breaking spikes...just the increasing probably of when the wheel ever rolling forward and stopping on each spike ...if its not the broken spike then when the wheel turns again to the next spike the odds increase that the next spike is the broken one.
This is similar to the Bull market cycle with each forward turn and landing on a correction... the odds increase that the next one is not a correction but the cyclic reversal.
This is similar to the Bull market cycle with each forward turn and landing on a correction... the odds increase that the next one is not a correction but the cyclic reversal.
As with many things in life, if we don't fully understand them, they can seemingly appear random.
I don't buy that.
Short-term the market is driven by investor sentiment (which affects supply & demand) and long-term by corporate earnings.
I'm not sure how inflation can be the prime driver of the share-market when inflation is instrinically linked to Aggregate or more specifically consumer demand, whilst demand for shares is somewhat instrinsically tied to the investment function of GDP. If more money in the economy is invested, then more money chasing returns leads to a bidding up of stocks and in turn a lowering of the instrinsic yield on those stock (as indicated by declining P/E's).
Annecdotal and empirical evidence shows that the Stock Market does best (on average) when inflation is moderate (i..e around 2% - 3%) however bull markets can occur in both high inflationary and deflationary environments.
Have to admit I am with you Whipmoney. What I don't get hoop is the statement highlighted above? How does inflation push down on the PE ratio? Are you talking in a real vs. nominal terms?? Can you elaborate on the theory/ the above statement a bit more so I can try and get my head around it?
Cheers.
Yes Whipmoney The bit of your post was right....Short-term the market is driven by investor sentiment....day by day markets are driven by media (outside influences), the availability of money, and investor sentiment..... and all this is becomes historical data and chartists can apply that data to specific indicators to create all sorts of results from levels of investor momentum, sentiment, smart money exiting through to overbought and underbought situations......
Short term markets are volatile, often unpredictable, noisy, often irrational, and self correct frequently and rapidly thus attracting day traders.....
Most of us investors fall into either the medium term or long term....therefore our decisions should not be influenced by the day by day noisy market but more towards what really drives the market after you eliminate the noise...
Sharemarket theory and Market Physics are areas that the media tend to avoid as it is educationally boring hard to read and even harder to get your head around and understand the logic as it seems paradoxical to the stuff that the media pumps out.
What really grabs the investor readers (and the media makes sure this happens) is the exciting day by day soap operas as the market twists and turns to the global events of the day and the daily conclusion provided by the media analysts who portrayed by their own (media) to be Gurus and that their daily opinion and logic should be taken as gospel as well as gauging (rightfully or wrongfully) the sentiments of its readers and magnifying those feelings to the whole wide world.....also it makes great posts on ST :) ..
You sort of see now why Company management have little time for their shareholders writing in these forums and other media..eh?
Why I'm a bit anti with Media is the fact that most people believe what they read and apply their logic taken from their media education.....when the majority apply that logic and confirm each other it must be correct ..huh?...it then becomes "reality' and the "norm" and self feeds itself to become entrenched into the main stream ......something akin to the Flat Earth Society....
What Winner has posted (which is an article I hadn't read until yesterday) explains everything in detail to what I have raving on about for years The Investing strategies and secular bear market thread started by Winner69 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets) has it all posted in detail so there's no need to regurgitate Market Physics summary here .............
Ultimately... it is not up to Winner or I to correct or re-educate the failings of media education ... its up the ST readers themselves whether they want to embrace it or not.....
I've said enough on this subject....
We don't need no education
We don't need no thought control
No dark sarcasm in the classroom
Teachers leave them kids alone
Hey teacher leave them kids alone
All in all it's just another brick in the wall
All in all you're just another brick in the wall .....Pink Floyd ..Another brick in the Wall
As with many things in life, if we don't fully understand them, they can seemingly appear random.
Unfortunately yes... very true.....and it can sometimes ruin lives
Unfortunately yes... very true.....and it can sometimes ruin lives
Agree, wish I knew more and have gratefully learn't a few things from this forum too. All we can do is manage risk and learn, or be out, or both.
Still, there are FA's out there who get economic and market predictions correct, I don't think luck comes much into play, they're just experienced and the best at what they do, something to aspire to really.
A two cent’s worth;
It’s difficult Tumeric to draw a direct correlation between the inflation rate and sharemarket sentiment because monetary policy over the last twenty years or so has been to better influence the inflation rate as a controlled output of interest rate manipulation.
The FED adjusts the OCR prior to when they would otherwise anticipate a large increase/decrease in inflation/deflation, thus taking out the extreme inflation swings that would otherwise better correlate with cycles within the sharemarket.
There is though thus a better macro relationship between OCR ranges and sharemarket cycles.
A two cent’s worth;
It’s difficult Tumeric to draw a direct correlation between the inflation rate and sharemarket sentiment because monetary policy over the last twenty years or so has been to better influence the inflation rate as a controlled output of interest rate manipulation.
The FED adjusts the OCR prior to when they would otherwise anticipate a large increase/decrease in inflation/deflation, thus taking out the extreme inflation swings that would otherwise better correlate with cycles within the sharemarket.
There is though thus a better macro relationship between OCR ranges and sharemarket cycles.
Have a look HERE (http://www.crestmontresearch.com/interest-rates/#20-investment-implications-interest-rates) Mac...All your thoughts will probably be explained...The reason inflation is considered to be the primary driver not interest rates, is that interest rates had no correlation with Equity markets before the 1960's in the USA. Since then it has and still is a controlled "variable?" within the system and used by Monetary Policy as a tool ...With monetary policy operating, interest rates are nowadays closely correlated with inflation therefore it correlates well with Equity Markets.....however..for example if countries abandon (or tinker with?) Montary policy for something else, interest rates may cease to be correlated with inflation...........hence inflation being the primary driver of the Equity Market not interest rates.
There’s thresholds to consider too;
Inflation is maintained within controlled limits by the FED by manipulating interest rates, but only within an interest rate band below levels whereby higher interest rates would otherwise limit businesses to leverage. So, yes, you could flop it over in a way and say that inflation is the driver behind the policy, but graphically there is little visual correlation within normal bands for aforementioned reasons.
Once interest rates cap out at the upper end of the band then inflation can become less controllable and may rise, at this point yes there becomes a more direct correlation between inflation and the sharemarket. Such as during years 2001 and 2007.
This article provides an insight as to the tolerable upper interest rate thresholds, though such a time is not on the immediate radar. I've built one of my FA exit models on similar criteria.
http://qvmgroup.com/invest/2013/06/2...tes-from-1957/ (http://qvmgroup.com/invest/2013/06/22/sp-500-pes-versus-10-yr-treasury-rates-from-1957/)
5438
kiora
09-02-2014, 06:40 PM
Rate Setting explained ???
http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/63048/we-look-where-ocr-may-be-going-using-model-closely-mimics-policy-setting-activity-some
There’s thresholds to consider too;
Inflation is maintained within controlled limits by the FED by manipulating interest rates, but only within an interest rate band below levels whereby higher interest rates would otherwise limit businesses to leverage. So, yes, you could flop it over in a way and say that inflation is the driver behind the policy, but graphically there is little visual correlation within normal bands for aforementioned reasons.
Once interest rates cap out at the upper end of the band then inflation can become less controllable and may rise, at this point yes there becomes a more direct correlation between inflation and the sharemarket. Such as during years 2001 and 2007.
This article provides an insight as to the tolerable upper interest rate thresholds, though such a time is not on the immediate radar. I've built one of my FA exit models on similar criteria.
http://qvmgroup.com/invest/2013/06/2...tes-from-1957/ (http://qvmgroup.com/invest/2013/06/22/sp-500-pes-versus-10-yr-treasury-rates-from-1957/)
5438
Hmmmm..It's getting all too complex Mac with your ifs, buts, manipulations and whatevers ... Are you in the middle stages of "over-think" ??
I think simple and assume the fact that: The inflation rate figure (used in the statistics) is the end (snapshot) result after the variable degrees of influences from every single factor you mentioned + other factors which we haven't mentioned and probably many other factors we wouldn't even dreamed of or expect, taken into account ....I accept the fact that the "Efficient Market Theory" is more correct than me who struggles to find all the influences effecting the inflation rate or interest rates and what ever else, then manually adjust the inflation rate according to my own deductions...therefore I accept and think simple.
Inflation rate is proven to be the primary driver ....it has an impact on PE Ratios therefore, your primary focus of thinking should be on inflation rates not interest rates..
winner69
09-02-2014, 09:17 PM
Lower oil prices + more pocket money for consumers = more growth and a higher inflation rate. Definitely time to bring the OCR back up!
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBREA120G020140203?irpc=932
Maybe But could also be
Lower oil prices + pay off the mortgage = lower inflation. Maybe time to cut OCR to stimulate growth
All to complicated for me and to think the gurus us a formula to come up with what the OCR is ....all sounds a bit boring
I reckon wheeler has been a wimp and it should be already over 3%
Can I just ask, why do you believe the OCR should have been raised by now?
Turmeric...have a go at playing this simulated game, it may aid in answering your own question.
I've posted this game on ST some time ago...time for a reboot..eh?..It takes about 5 minutes to play..
The interesting thing is it only gives you one tool (interest rate manipulation) to play so it should be simple...Huh?
The object of the game is to keep inflation and employment low ... it has unexpected events outside the FED's control and you have to apply your knowledge to be a successful FED chairman and be reappointed for another term at the conclusion of the game..
I've just played the game again...I got dismissed...I guess I know nothing about applying Monetary Policy.....damm :(
http://sffed-education.org/chairman/
Ha !!!!! ... I got reappointed with my second attempt...:cool:
Xerof
10-02-2014, 09:43 AM
Ha !!!!! ... I got reappointed with my second attempt...:cool:
so did Bernanke, didn't he? :p
so did Bernanke, didn't he? :p
Yeah..He was tackling a potential deflation problem...
Mrs Hoop demanded I stop playing this silly game and earn a living.....
meh!... just one more turn..
ahh hahh!! I tried and succeeded to get into a deflation problem this time and applied the theory to get out of it ...I ended the game with FED rate of 0.5%, unemployment rate of 4.75% and inflation rate of -0.05%, I felt quite proud of myself:cool: but sadly I got dismissed:mad ;:...how unfair!!!! :p....How did Bernanke get a second turn and I got dismissed?:(:mad ;::t_down:
winner69
10-02-2014, 12:16 PM
Just read Mauldin's weekly column (all about Obamacare taking jobs out of the economy and how it will reduce GDP and such things)
Besides all that the little bit of wisdom he started with was quite good
"In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.
"There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.
"Yet this difference is tremendous; for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favorable, the later consequences are disastrous, and vice versa. Whence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil."
– From an essay by Frédéric Bastiat in 1850, "That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen"
winner69
10-02-2014, 01:07 PM
Can I just ask, why do you believe the OCR should have been raised by now?
Turmeric - a quick response
You and many others seem to concentrate on the adverse impacts (to exporters) of the NZD appreciating if the OCR goes up.
But isn't the key driver of the NZD the relative performance of our economy v the economies of our major trading partners. (of course there is also the relationship between interest rates and economic growth)
History has also taught us that holding or cutting the OCR in response to an appreciating or high exchange rate is a silly idea. Brash tried this in 1993 and to some extent Bollard in 2003. When they tried this the exchange rate and interest rates ended up significantly higher. There was talk last year that wheeler was prepared to cut rates to lower the exchange rate, just like Brash and Bollard did once.
As such concern over the impact on the NZD should not be a major consideration as to what to do with the OCR
Maybe wimpish is best being described as not being bold / brave / being too conservative. I take the view if there is a high probability of something happening that you don't want to (like inflation) then be ahead of the game and act sooner than later. I just think Wheeler is being too conservative
Maybe it will become all clear in his March MPS. Always an interesting read but heck there is often a lot of contras diction in some.of them. If nothing the pictures are quite good.
Anyway that's my view but then what the heck do I know
winner69
10-02-2014, 02:54 PM
Turmeric said RBNZ has other tools to deal with Housing so why not see how well they can use them to control inflation there instead of the OCR.
Suppose you mean things like LVR?
Jury out whether is the main reason for the downturn in house sales numbers (down 3% in the December quarter after strong growth in numbers over the last year or so)
Interestingly declining number of house sales is a sign of future new residential construction). New houses consents lag house sales by about 2-3 quarters and with a very strong correlation.
So is one of the unintended consequences of the LVR to kill residential construction as well - a key driver of our growth reaching rock star proportions.
Oh hell, I feel an CCR rate cut coming up
winner69
10-02-2014, 03:01 PM
My modelling says 8 months lag between house sales and new residential consents
The guy from Macquarie Wealth says 5 months in this bit in the paper his morning about FBU
...flagging New Zealand house sales "because they lead dwelling consents by around five months and New Zealand residential comprises 25 per cent of current earnings
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11199023
Different software ....never mind we both on same wavelength
winner69
10-02-2014, 03:02 PM
My modelling says 8 months lag between house sales and new residential consents
The guy from Macquarie Wealth says 5 months in this bit in the paper his morning about FBU
...flagging New Zealand house sales "because they lead dwelling consents by around five months and New Zealand residential comprises 25 per cent of current earnings
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11199023
Different software ....never mind we both on same wavelength
winner69
17-02-2014, 01:29 PM
Over 4900 again
Yippee ...on way to 5000 by end of the month
Knew it would happen ...missed out n by Xmas 2 years ago and by Xmas last year
Now it 5000 by end f February
Bobcat.
17-02-2014, 01:55 PM
Over 4900 again
Yippee ...on way to 5000 by end of the month
Knew it would happen ...missed out n by Xmas 2 years ago and by Xmas last year
Now it 5000 by end f February
Don't be too confident of this, Winner69. US Equity markets have formed a head and shoulder pattern and will, IMO, fall away this week, which is likely to take the NZX50 with them.
BC
winner69
17-02-2014, 05:32 PM
Don't be too confident of this, Winner69. US Equity markets have formed a head and shoulder pattern and will, IMO, fall away this week, which is likely to take the NZX50 with them.
BC
No head and shoulders pattern bobcat
Apparently it is a domed house
Snow Leopard
17-02-2014, 08:17 PM
No! This is a domed house:
5497
Actually it is mosque, but the houses are the same except for the shiny bit on the top, which makes the mosque more like a chart pattern because it is not so smooth.
Meanwhile this is the Head and Shoulders pattern:
5498
which is great for when you get the Ash from a volcanic eruption in your hair - works well - I personally guarantee it
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Xerof
17-02-2014, 08:56 PM
And for avoidance of any doubt, this is an ascending triangle......
Well, it would be if you rotate it a bit.....
zigzag
17-02-2014, 09:17 PM
At last I am starting to understand technical analysis. Thanks guys. The pictures were a great help.
winner69
17-02-2014, 09:19 PM
There is one of those domed buildings in Courtenay Place Wellington
The Taj Mahal ....started life as a toilet block and now Welsh Dragon Bar.
Nice place to have a drink as long as there are no homesick taffs present
Not looking forward to this domed house pattern playing out
winner69
21-02-2014, 07:19 PM
well over 4900 now
Got to 4983 last November before fading away
This time WILL be different ..... maybe even 5000 next week as only one decent day away or 2 pretty good days
winner69
22-02-2014, 07:17 AM
it will hit 4999 and at that exact moment FBU will file for bankruptcy and Xero HQ will burn down just to pi$$ you off winner :)
C'mon Belg ..... SPARK will save the day
I can see the headlines now
NZX50 SOARS TO 5000, LIKELY TO REACH 6000 BY CHRISTMAS
winner69
24-02-2014, 03:01 PM
4950 ......only 50 away now
A 1%,day is all we need
NZ50 4962 and a record high if I'm not mistaken, where did all the doomsayers go ?
winner69
24-02-2014, 04:27 PM
NZ50 4962 and a record high if I'm not mistaken, where did all the doomsayers go ?
Think it got to 4983 intraday last November
Only 40 away from 5000 ......must get there next week with all these positive announcements coming up
winner69
24-02-2014, 05:27 PM
NZ50 4962 and a record high if I'm not mistaken, where did all the doomsayers go ?
Only 30 to go ....... and then what comes after pride
Bobcat.
24-02-2014, 05:47 PM
Only 30 to go ....... and then what comes after pride
Some think that Pride comes before a fall, but that's a misquote.
"Pride comes before destruction" is a direct quote from the Book of Proverbs.
...or if you prefer, in ST terms, "Pride comes before the crash".
This week or next? How many more Banking executives involved in the high risk derivatives market need to commit suicide before we realise it's very nearly upon us?
Oh yeah, I found the doomsayers now ............
winner69
24-02-2014, 06:38 PM
Oh yeah, I found the doomsayers now ............
Proverbs 18.16
Pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall.
MAC we better hope that God has not decided to wipe us out. Maybe we need to seek forgiveness for thinking such things could happen before it I too late.
Even moosie was not projecting this so of outcome
winner69
25-02-2014, 06:05 AM
After tonight's stellar US performance today must be the day .....NZX50 at 5000
I said by Xmas. I was wrong.
But better late then never
winner69
25-02-2014, 07:56 AM
This is in the wall of the office of Winner Wealth Management. Survived all the crashes
I have no idea whether history will repeat but you never know
Again God may only have meant us to make 9% a year from the market and recently we have been greedy so have to give some back (actually lots)
As Mr P said in P 12.18 ...... The Market Giveth and The Market Taketh Away
After tonight's stellar US performance today must be the day .....NZX50 at 5000
I said by Xmas. I was wrong.
But better late then never
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/santa_breakdown.jpg (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/santa_breakdown.jpg.html)
winner69
25-02-2014, 09:53 AM
I was reading the thread you started back in 2007 mate and noted you did well pre GFC by converting (all??) you stock market equity to cash. May I ask what % of your wealth you currently have in the stock market?
The amount allocated to equities is still 100% equities although some stocks have come close to being sold.
At my stage off life not everything is in equities but as they have done very well the last few years equities are now a greater %age of my total wealth. But if things look like turning to custard capital preservation is key and they will be sold - and wait for the next big rise
winner69
25-02-2014, 07:06 PM
We were going ok today until those bloody profit takers came only and sold off tel and FBU
They are so canny those profit takers ....always selling high when buying low. Hoe those bought of th profit takers ake some dosh the next few days
winner69
26-02-2014, 07:06 AM
It's Greenbour politicians "redistributing" the wealth. Everything can be blamed on politicians tgese days, even your personal debt, didnt you know that winner?
Yes moosie it is one evil world we live in isn't it
All this redistribution of wealth is screwing everybody but a few.
Our John is doing well in making sure nz plays its role ....it's all going to plan
Never mind.but they will get their comeuppance one day but in the meantime we just have to make sure we play the same game on the fringes
winner69
27-02-2014, 07:31 PM
Doesn't look like 5000 this week .... maybe not even this year
Never mind here is an interesting chart showing how most of the world markets have had a couple of good years but it ain't been earnings growth that has driven it - rather high PE ratios
Markets are forward looking, maybe earnings will follow - yeah right
winner69
28-02-2014, 06:03 PM
10 points to go Winner.
Can ya taste it yet?
So close ....must happen next week
winner69
01-03-2014, 08:13 AM
Brian reckons unless most nz companies (at least the bigger ones) start pulling their socks up and do better the nzx50 at 5000 might be our lot
A common moan of mine eh .....a lot of those mentioned tout growth and fantastic things to come but at the end if the day it's all talk. Just as well recent market sentiment has been so positive else the nzx50 would have been closer to 4000 than 5000
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11211789
winner69
01-03-2014, 09:39 AM
It will take a 53% rise from current levels for the NZSX50 to regain its 2007 peaks. I am pleased to be able to report that this will happen at 2.15 pm on 19/12/2011.
Naturally, such a confident assertion rests on a couple of minor assumptions :-
(1) The bottom of the Bear market was reached on 3/3/09.
(2) The subsequent recovery will be at the usual 20% per annum.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZSX5064.gif
Mr P got the general trend right many years
NZX50 fell 44% between July 07 to March 09
It took to Mar 13 to get back to the previous high. That 80% recovery took 4 years A bit longer than Mr P thought)
Since then over the last year another 15% to just under 5000
So just over double what it was 5 years ago
That's our view of the world - half cycles can often cloud the real picture
Whatever in very rough terms Mr P and his 20% pa figure was pretty close
Let me know where you work, ill make sure Sparky is there dressed up in his best attire to throw confetti at you and pop the corks on the 1999 chateau neuf de boublie ;)
Shhhhh......don't mention that word "pop"...
steve fleming
01-03-2014, 12:43 PM
Is someone able to let me know what the fwd PE of the NZSE 50 is?
Or alternatively, if a business with these metrics listed on the NZSE, what multiples it would expect to trade at?
"For the year ended 31 December 2013, the consolidated pro forma unaudited revenue of the
combined Intueri and Quantum Education Groups is expected to be between NZ$60m and NZ$62m
and pro forma unaudited earnings before interest and tax is expected to be between NZ$19m and
NZ$21m"
thanks!
Joshuatree
01-03-2014, 01:31 PM
Let me know where you work, ill make sure Sparky is there dressed up in his best attire to throw confetti at you and pop the corks on the 1999 chateau neuf de boublie ;)
Sparky wears a tux 24/7 has replaced the Glock with a Gillette mk 007 in one pocket and a good to go "shaken as you're driven" martini mix in the other pocket.
Steve, last I heard the NZX50 was working on a PE of 13.5 (circa December/January so probably a bit higher now).
Market PE will be lower than at the NZ50 8th November peak as earnings are up 4.4%
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11211789
steve fleming
01-03-2014, 04:58 PM
THanks Moosie, Mac. So pretty much in line with the ASX
AWN on the ASX may possibly be listing NZ's largest private training group. Should be a pretty attractive asset with 26 campuses (teaching tourism, cooking, hairdressing, hospitality etc) and international enrolements up 33% over the past 6 months
I was just trying to get a feel as to how it will be priced if listed on the NZX
I think today will be the day NZX50 hits 5000.
Soolaimon
03-03-2014, 10:52 AM
I think today will be the day NZX50 hits 5000.
Not looking likely as yet.
couta1
03-03-2014, 10:59 AM
Not looking likely as yet.
Very unlikely to happen on a Monday generally being a slow trading day?
Just been jumping between RT and CNBC, no clear winner yet, Russia and the US both reckon they are right so neither must be wrong, all that can be sure is that no one want’s Chernobyl.
All that hot air, as good a reason as any really for traders to decide they want a down day in the market.
blackcap
03-03-2014, 04:25 PM
Boom... we hit 5000!
Not even thermo nuclear armed eastern European tit for tat can hold a good thing down.
Congrats to all investors.
Toulouse - Luzern
03-03-2014, 04:40 PM
and it closed at 5001.
PS: at 5.36pm:
My apologies to everyone.
I posted the above at 4.40pm and before the close.
Actual close 5007
Bjauck
03-03-2014, 05:03 PM
Ahhhh,hello Xero... :)
I wonder where the NZSX50 would be without XRO...
Mista_Trix
03-03-2014, 05:15 PM
Next stop,
All Ords!!
Bjauck
04-03-2014, 09:55 AM
Next stop,
All Ords!!
Looks like the sabre-rattling on the Crimean Peninsula will rain 0n the NZSX50 parade today.
Looks like the sabre-rattling on the Crimean Peninsula will rain 0n the NZSX50 parade today.
Must be a rain storm in tea cup, another record high for the NZ50 !
Perhaps NZ with it's rock star economy is starting to look for some like a bit of safe haven.
Mista_Trix
04-03-2014, 02:13 PM
Knowing nothing about this at all, but, what are the predictors that we've uncoupled from global markets?
If so, what are the chances we could either fall (collapse) without them (earlier than them), or rise longer than them (unlikely I know)??
blackcap
04-03-2014, 02:35 PM
Must be a rain storm in tea cup, another record high for the NZ50 !
Perhaps NZ with it's rock star economy is starting to look for some like a bit of safe haven.
Coupled with our strong dollar etc etc. And our earnings were overall pretty positive so that does bode well...
Bjauck
04-03-2014, 02:42 PM
Knowing nothing about this at all, but, what are the predictors that we've uncoupled from global markets?
If so, what are the chances we could either fall (collapse) without them (earlier than them), or rise longer than them (unlikely I know)??
I should have known better...I too had noticed in the past that NZ markets can often move in their own particular way. Perhaps our small size means that a small (on the international scale) market player or sub-story can have a big effect in NZ. In the Crimean context maybe NZ and Oz are safe havens.
Disc: I am an ingénu when it comes to intenational markets dynamics
blackcap
04-03-2014, 02:50 PM
I should have known better...I too had noticed in the past that NZ markets can often move in their own particular way. Perhaps our small size means that a small (on the international scale) market player or sub-story can have a big effect in NZ. In the Crimean context maybe NZ and Oz are safe havens.
Disc: I am an ingénu when it comes to intenational markets dynamics
Also just on CNBC that Ukraine is only 1/4 of 1 % of world GDP and Crimea even less. So in the bigger picture it really is meaningless.... :) Or so the analyst was telling us.
Bjauck
04-03-2014, 04:32 PM
Also just on CNBC that Ukraine is only 1/4 of 1 % of world GDP and Crimea even less. So in the bigger picture it really is meaningless.... :) Or so the analyst was telling us.
Serbia was not an international power in 1914 when the archduke was topped.....not that I am saying that Crimea will inevitably lead to a world war. It is however in one of those strategic hotspots - drawing in Russia, USA and Britain (as guarantors of Ukrainian socereignty). Sounds similar to the various assistance treaties back in 1914. Since NZ is no longer a dependent child of mother Britain, we are somewhat more removed from European crises than we were in 1914 (or 1939).
Hi Guys.
John Mauldin is one writer I take notice of...he socialises with the movers and shakers of this world and he shares their views with us mere mortals...he offers free subscription and his Ukraine article popped up in my email box this morning...
This is his website http://www.mauldineconomics.com/
Bjauck
04-03-2014, 07:47 PM
BJ, the current crisis is hardly a parallel to the crises that lead into WWI. NATO will not attack Russia over an invasion of the Ukraine as they are not a bloc member (they do have guarantees though). Putin knows to do so is economic suicide anyways.
Best case scenario: Putin backs down soon and all retyrns to normal.
Worst case scenario: Russian invasion followed by civil war in Ukraine and overthrow of Russian government.
That's not all. If Putin gets overthrown, or worse, we see a repeat of 1917, the country has the worlds largest stockpile of nuclear weapons.
If you really feel like scaring yourself tonight, watch The Sum of All Fears. (and no, Ben Affleck's acting is not the scariest part of the movie...)
I don't think anyone wants another world war that's for sure. But no-one wanted another war in 1939. Poland was guaranteed by Britain and France in 1939. The Ukraine's sovereignty is guaranteed by UK, USA and Russia. If UK and USA are not true to their word, they will appease Russia and let Crimea (and Eastern Ukraine) slip under Russian hegemony. Russia has already increased its influence elsewhere over the years. Are we seeing a sort of parallel between Germany in 30's and Russia today? Will the EU UK and USA go down the appeasement route? Just throwing it out there! Perhaps we are seeing a return to the cold war...rather than hot war itself?
Bjauck
05-03-2014, 07:22 AM
True...we are not in the 1930's. Putin is not an unabashed dictator and is more subject to popular forces than the dictators in the 1930's (although that is debatable). At least he got Duma backing. (As an aside would the NZ and Australian people have voted for a war in Vietnam that their government sent troops into?).
A difference from the 1930's is the nuclear aspect - the treatment of an empire-building nation with run-down conventional force but a nuclear arsenal. Also in similar vein, if the Ukraine had not dismantled its share of the USSR nuclear armaments, would Russia have intervened in the Crimea as it did? Perhaps the Scottish Nationalists are taking note so, if they succeed in their referendum campaign for an independent Scotland, they may decide that keeping nuclear subs in the Scottish bases may be worth the expense.
Looks like Putin has backed down for time being. In its contrarian form, will the NZSX drop?
Bobcat.
05-03-2014, 10:42 AM
Hi Guys.
John Mauldin is one writer I take notice of...he socialises with the movers and shakers of this world and he shares their views with us mere mortals...he offers free subscription and his Ukraine article popped up in my email box this morning...
This is his website http://www.mauldineconomics.com/
Thanks Hoop - at first glance this looks good. I've subscribed to Mauldin's article emails.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5005032014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZX5005032014.png.html)
winner69
06-03-2014, 11:29 AM
This Mr Lister (although he doesn't look old enough to be a real Mr) just doesn't get it and is just a big spoil cat.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11214446
Why show everybody how smart you are and put out this Mark .....the world needs good positive stories so please don't ruin the party
IT IS A NEW RECORD
And it will be another record when it get to 6000 by Xmas
Bjauck
06-03-2014, 12:09 PM
IT IS A NEW RECORD
And it will be another record when it get to 6000 by Xmas
Literally it is a record but I consider it is really a clayton's record.
Still, using a gross index instead of a net one has worked for the NZX as many commentators when comparing markets around the world fall into the trap of comparing the NZ gross index with the net indices used elsewhere. It makes NZ performance appear better than reality. The reason given for using a gross index, that NZ dividend rates are higher than elsewhere, is perhaps spurious given the mix of companies on the NZX and risk premium required for the NZ small commodities driven economy.
I wonder how the NZ market compares to pre-1987 crash...
winner69
06-03-2014, 12:34 PM
Lister has actually stuffed up the numbers in his table in that article.
The 2009 trough was actually 2444 and not 1444 in the table
The current level is thus 106% higher than this trough - not the 248% in his table.
Seeing he looks so young I wil forgive him. Probably still at uni when it hit 2444 so suffered no pain ....the danger of only knowing markets that only on up.
If there is a point in the article it is that capital returns since 2009 have been about 70% while gross returns have been 106%.
.
A fair chunk of the difference is the effect of reinvesting dividends So sitting back and putting the dividends back into the market gives you superior returns, rather than just needing them to live on or a bit of extra spending money.
That is why the chances are that the likes of Snoopy makes more than most out of the market. I was going to include Birmanmboy but he says he needs his divies to live on.
winner69
06-03-2014, 12:35 PM
Literally it is a record but I consider it is really a clayton's record.
Still, using a gross index instead of a net one has worked for the NZX as many commentators when comparing markets around the world fall into the trap of comparing the NZ gross index with the net indices used elsewhere. It makes NZ performance appear better than reality. The reason given for using a gross index, that NZ dividend rates are higher than elsewhere, is perhaps spurious given the mix of companies on the NZX and risk premium required for the NZ small commodities driven economy.
I wonder how the NZ market compares to pre-1987 crash...
Gaynor had a bit a while ago .....we are miles away from even getting near the 87 high
winner69
06-03-2014, 01:39 PM
Christmas calls already again eh Winner? Hope you're right for once this year ;)
Blown past 5100 .....next 5200 and then 5500 by Easter and then 6000 by Xmas
That is what happens to rock star economies
Bjauck
06-03-2014, 02:13 PM
And gross indexes with XRO in it going global ... :)
Can anyone work out how much of the NZ50 growth since XRO's inclusion last year is due to XRO?
Leftfield
06-03-2014, 02:54 PM
Gaynor had a bit a while ago .....we are miles away from even getting near the 87 high
Can anyone recall what the 87 high was?
SimonHouse
06-03-2014, 03:10 PM
Seeing he looks so young I wil forgive him. Probably still at uni when it hit 2444 so suffered no pain ....the danger of only knowing markets that only on up.
That Lister looks VERY young. Do Craigs have an army of highly gifted toddlers running their business?
I jest of course. He is probably a very good manager of money.
winner69
06-03-2014, 03:36 PM
Can anyone work out how much of the NZ50 growth since XRO's inclusion last year is due to XRO?
Brighton Early will have that his fingertips
He'll tell us shortly I'm sure
I thought BE had left or been exited from the building
winner69
06-03-2014, 04:29 PM
I thought BE had left or been exited from the building
That's right - he got deleted the same day as Sparky
Maybe they were the same person.
Anybody know the weighting XRO has in nzx50?
Bjauck
06-03-2014, 05:22 PM
Anybody know the weighting XRO has in nzx50?
I did an internet search on weighting XRO nzx50 and found a Brian Gaynor item from Nov 2013 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11157995. In it he said that in the previous 12 months XRO's index weighting had gone from 1.3 per cent to 6.3. Since mid-November XRO sp has gone from $36.00 to $44.50 (about +24%) whereas the nz50 has gone from about 4914 to 5106 (about +4%). Using non-accurate quick mental calculation perhaps the NZ50 is 6% higher than it would have been without XRO.
Disc. Don't rely on figures in this post they may be total piffle!
percy
06-03-2014, 05:37 PM
That Lister looks VERY young. Do Craigs have an army of highly gifted toddlers running their business?
I jest of course. He is probably a very good manager of money.
I went to a Craig's presentation evening some time ago where Mark Lister spoke.
I learnt a lot.Thought he had an excellent understanding of the markets,and companies.
Should Craig's bring him down to ChCh again I would be keen to hear more from him.
Bjauck
08-03-2014, 09:10 AM
Looks like Crimea won't settle down...The Crimean Parliament now wanting a referendum to support its desire to join Russia. They have a good chance of winning the referendum as a majority in Crimea are Russian, returned Tatars and Ukarainians being minorities (Crimea only became part of Ukraine in the 1950's as a gift from Kruschev). The democratic West are saying that a referendum would violate international law! The irony! Will the widening US-Russia split dampen the XRO effect on the NZ50 next week?
Santiago
08-03-2014, 01:41 PM
Will the widening US-Russia split dampen the XRO effect on the NZ50 next week?
Only if they start firing missiles at each other, which has to be reasonably unlikely at this stage.
Bjauck
08-03-2014, 02:22 PM
The Crimea Parliament supports the referendum. I wonder how fair the election for the autonomous region's parliament was? I would be impressed if the EU and the UN would counter with a plan for a considered monitored referendum or does Crimea have to remain within the Ukraine as the Ukraine's pre-existing boundaries were guaranteed by foreign countries, without regard for the wishes of the Crimean autonomous republic's populace. Is the whole situation at risk of going down a Kosovo/Serbia route?
Bjauck
08-03-2014, 06:20 PM
I am not in a position to comment on the relativity of civilisations, but let's hope the balkan situation does not arise. Hopefully it would be more contained anyway. A lot of the Balkan tension remained latent in the Communist era. The Stalinist era eviction of the Tatars underlines a fair bit of tension and possibly the mix of Ukrainian, Catholic/ Russian, Orthodox / Tatar, Islam cultures. However I think the markets will take your view on the situation at the moment.
winner69
08-03-2014, 08:35 PM
Nice of the EU to give/lend Ukraine 15 billion
Probably just part of the big plan to ensure the western bankers who lent to Ukraine get their money back, at the expense of the populace who no doubt will be screwed with 'austerity' measures.
Bjauck
09-03-2014, 08:35 AM
Nice of the EU to give/lend Ukraine 15 billion
Probably just part of the big plan to ensure the western bankers who lent to Ukraine get their money back, at the expense of the populace who no doubt will be screwed with 'austerity' measures.
True. European bankers who already look like Sinead O'Connor and Yul Brunner don't need another haircut at the moment! The EU peeps themselves have come to realise there is no free lunch in the world of Euro finance so Ukrainian EU supporters need to sample a bit of the EU downside!
Minerbarejet
09-03-2014, 11:02 AM
That's right - he got deleted the same day as Sparky
Maybe they were the same person.
Hmmmmm - Bright + Spark - that makes perfect sense, Winner.
:)
With a bit of a prompt, - always felt from the posts that B&E was female,
Husband and wife perhaps - Brother and Sister possibly.
Gaynor's got it about right, no really big surprises in his table.
Although I might have picked KMD as more of a cyclical outperformer than a growth stock, and without any apology whatsoever I just can't picture a big mature corp like Fonterra becoming a growth stock any time soon.
We should expect to see PEB enter the list of growth stocks when in joins the NZ50 next week too, watch for it on Wednesday.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11215946
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