NZSX50 - Good News! [Archive] - Page 5

winner69

13-03-2014, 08:53 AM

Not really a bold prediction on my part, but I suspect we will see a .25 basis point rise (and a talk down of the NZD). I think that while the inflation they see is still nicely tucked in the middle of the target band (1.6%) they will note that it has been rising a bit quicker than they expected, that housing is still not under control, and the economy is sitting pretty well. They will therefore rise the OCR as per their previous commentary and will believe this for the most part will have been priced in to the e-rate. We will see a spike on the intraday charts but the e-rate will be back on its normal path from tomorrow.

I said I wouldn't be surprised to see no rise

Should be 0.5% as we previously debated turmeric

But if 0.25% at least some action from the no action man

winner69

13-03-2014, 08:56 AM

Don't take offence turmeric

If I was to imagine what you looked like a wheeler of some 10-15 years ago would fit the bill

My daughter once aspired to be Governor of the RB. Thankfully she saw better things to do

Banksie

13-03-2014, 11:12 AM

The next MPS which is 24 April, yes. I expect they will take the same route as the Fed regarding flexibility of economic conditions (although they are not nearly as hamstrung as them). In an election year the gubernment doesn't want inflation galloping ahead either, so best bet is more rises soon to try and keep a lid on inflation to stop the masses complaining about even more price rises.

13 Mar 2014 OCR and MPS
24 Apr 2014 OCR
12 Jun 2014 OCR and MPS
24 Jul 2014 OCR
11 Sep 2014 OCR and MPS
30 Oct 2014 OCR
11 Dec 2014 OCR and MPS

Xerof

13-03-2014, 11:17 AM

Precedent suggests they only like to move on MPS dates, but if I heard correctly, Wheeler wants to be at 3.75% by the end of this year, so one might be an OCR date, or perhaps one lift might be 50bps?

Hoop

14-03-2014, 08:53 AM

Looking at the Copper technical breakdown this morning... this could be the warning indicator towards the worst case scenario ...........................the cancellation of GOT

It seems Dr Copper's warning was mostly ignored by the "Equity Experts"...

Its different this time, right??? The real doctor is Dr Media and Dr Media has said Dr Copper has lost its mojo as an economic indicator ...hey we all believe in the written word so it must be true..eh?

Lost in space

14-03-2014, 08:57 AM

Hoop

14-03-2014, 10:08 AM

Statement from JP Morgan Chase's USA's chief strategist:

Just after Lee defended his bullish outlook on CNBC, major U.S. stock market averages took a downward swing, with the Dow (http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI) dropping 120 points by midday. But as investors worry about nearing the end of the five-year bull market's shelf life, Lee said every bull market that has lasted more than four years ends from a single culprit: a recession.

If that is indeed correct, question is:
Is the USA heading for recession?

Actually...I don't believe in argument that recession is the main cause of an end of the Bull market cycle...

From my viewpoint the main cause of an end of the Bull market cycle is exhaustion of available money towards that market....Remember the Economy and the Equity Market don't correlate all that well (Crestmont Research) (http://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Economy.pdf)..Its the sharemarkets own stellar success that sows the seeds of its own destruction (greed)....

At the start of the end (bull market) the overall market investor is so optimistic they will have all of their money invested, the only way to buy more is through borrowing and/or debt margins and because they are so convinced that the market will continue its stellar climb, they lose their fear and commonsense and do things e.g upping the mortgage on their house and using each correction as the "buying in the dip" opportunity....Institutions are criticised by their investors if they aren't all in taking advantage of the boom..

...but there comes a time when money needed to accumulate stock runs out and the leveraged assets reaches a tipping point... one by one buyers are reluctantly forced to leave the market, prices fall back due to fewer buyers and at some point margins are called ....money then evaporates and is lost forever adding to the available money woes... momentum to the downward trend increases ...

So the longer the Bull Market lives on in this last phase (Stage 4 ..exuberance state) the bigger mess to clean up....

I've re-posted this margin debt /S&P500 chart below...as you can see, already the potential mess at the tipping point will be huge enough for the Equity Market to cause a recession..It has done just that in history..I can see no reason why it should be different this time ..

The chart below is 20 years and shows the leading indicators turning before any recession effects.... ..going further back in history shows a similar stories... The famous and bizarre one being the tulip market which caused the 1634-1637 depression...and then we had the big one.. 1929 Wall St crash (Sharemarket crash not the sole cause) followed by the 1930-1933 Depression

When the sharemarket is not the cause of a recession (or worse) it is another leveraged overextended market such as Property, an innoviation (industrial revolutions) e.g railroads in the 1870's..or most often a combination of many market (all the ducks lining up in a row)

The financial market bust up and resulting economic slump is a result but not the cause.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/markets/NYSE-margin-debt-SPX-since-1995.gif

OK this is America's problem, not NZ's..we are the rock star country ..right
Usually when there is a crisis, money heads back to the safe havens..NZ isn't a safe haven ...Paradoxically if America is in the sh1t the money still flows back because it has this safe haven status....Same story ...negative money flows creates lack of available money ...demands slows...we all know the story from here...

winner69

14-03-2014, 10:39 AM

Bear markets generally start at the height of economic growth (when GDP peaks in the cycle). When GDP approaches zero or goes negative (recession) the damage (economic and shareprices) has been done. And a new bull cycle starts (or may have started)

Most say that the US economy is still growing so nowhere near a peak in this cycle, so no bear market about to happen soon.

Maybe that guy from JPM is predicting a recession in a year or two and that when that happens in hindsight we can say yes economic growth peaked in early 2014 as did the share markets

So better to focus on the real indicators that tell us where we are heading in the economic cycle - the best one being consumer spending.

(Comments based on US market trends)

MAC

14-03-2014, 10:50 AM

Hoop

14-03-2014, 11:11 AM

winner69

14-03-2014, 11:23 AM

Not sure I would agree Winner that consumer spending is the best of all indicators but could appreciate that if you have a focus more on sentiment and the (P) rather than the economics and the (E) in PE, than possibly so.

Economic and share market cycles over the last 20 years have been tempered by more modern monetary and fiscal policies with information technology allowing the feedback loop for those policies to be more direct and focused.

Studying the fundamental drivers behind those policies IMHO provides the best indicators and triggers.

So what drives consumer spend?

Slowing and rising year-over-year real hourly earnings growth have been a generally helpful leading indicator of forthcoming downturns and upturns in Y/Y consumer spending. These have been followed by slowdowns and advances in the economy in general and, therefore, have also been a signal of forthcoming declines and upturns in the stock market.

Yes the driver of the P you mentioned.

Essentially agree with what you are saying MAC but I see a lot of these as tinkering to solve perceived problems. At the end of the day if the guy on High St has no money to spend the economy suffers to some extent no matter how creative and focused policy makers are

Might research some of your thoughts though in interest of bettering myself

Hoop

14-03-2014, 12:11 PM

All the doom and gloom being expressed here ... :) ... NZ50 looks pretty overbought at present and I'm expecting a typical mini-correction that should last 4-6 weeks before bottoming and then take another 4-8 weeks before we're back to where we are now. Only if it doesn't get back to where we are now will I begin to become concerned.

Not me Belg...:D
A doom and gloomer would not be "in" 100% like me.....That may change a little today though...maybe?

The idea behind my posts is to pull my head out of the sand and look skywards to see If there are any clouds on the horizion .

There are some awful misalignments out there which is typical of a late stage of an mature bull market...so it pays to talk about it...eh?
At least when you suddenly get wacked around the ears you know what did it..and get out..rather than being in denial, full of optimistic hope, buying more shares on that "dip" with money that's not yours and then later blaming Mr Market for being irrational by not showing the "true" fundamental worth of your favourite stocks.

Mista_Trix

14-03-2014, 12:20 PM

... There are some awful misalignments out there ...

Do you mean misalignment from value and current share price??

kiora

14-03-2014, 02:31 PM

."money then evaporates and is lost forever adding to the available money woes" Yes I agree and its why I believe the FED will need to keep printing :)

Hoop

14-03-2014, 03:16 PM

Do you mean misalignment from value and current share price??

Annualised PE Ratio is very high for this stage of the secular Bear cycle (13 years old)...Although it is still at the high side of fair value only because the inflation rate is in that sweet spot zone at 1.58%. Thats only one cog in the overall system however ...Strangely (that effect for the media and the laypeople), not many points mention share price value..probably because the market values everything as fairly valued according to its "now" system environment that it lives in....So the points mentioned are those things that slowly effects change within the system environment that the Equity Market lives in ..... Equity Market Cycle reversals are due to slow systemic changes, much of it undramatic so goes undetected (unless you look for it)*** .....the ultimate tipping point trigger could be a very minor insignificant event...(Butterfly wings...eh?) That's the reason why most investors don't realise the exact time of the bull/bear reversal believing the market fall to be another buy in the dip Bull Market Correction and the media is still bullish encouraging the market is healthy...so with that denial that's nothing has changed (no dramatic event) the money trap is set.

*** the reason for these types of forum posts

Many points cover Correlations and disconnects typical of the last phase of Equity Bull Markets throughout history ..such as the current Copper/Equity disconnect...High margin debt..High IPO activity...fiscal tightening..lower inflation environment showing signs of ending..Also sentiment indicators...and behavioural attitudes e.g Investors harshly criticising anyone who bearish....The absence of perma-bear fund managers...stupid,lack of commonsense activity doesn't seem stupid or risky anymore as they are now highly profitable activities ...Hmmm about 20 more..I'll try to find my list..I've got one for both top of bull and top of bull cycles on my computer somewhere...

winner69

14-03-2014, 03:17 PM

I agree, and I think sometimes people forget that they still are at an extraordinary rate! Important to note that while "tapering" has started, it hasn't put a huge dent in the pace of QE. It was $85b per month, and if memory serves me right it is now $65b?? regardless it is still a BIG amount of money per month and will continue for a while yet to some extent.

So right .... amazing how many who think that tapering means QE has ended. Its still going on

I don't think it has down to $65 billion a month yet turmeric

Will continue for a long time ... at least to the next presidential elections ..... and wont stop until Wall St banks have managed to offload most of their toxic debt / mortgages to the Fed .... all under the guise of Quantitative Easing

Snow Leopard

25-03-2014, 12:21 PM

For those thinking the NZX may be getting toppy and thinking of changing Kiwi's to 'Roos on the ASX:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Murphy/images/Chart20140324071204.png

We're looking a bit toppy at 95 cents and we've had a double top there. If the Aussie breaks out vs the USD we could see the Kiwi falling back to 90.

Possibly you could have gone into a greater depth in your analysis and considered alternative scenarios?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Hoop

25-03-2014, 01:21 PM

Sorry PT, didn't have time as posted between my bites of Tiger Brand Supercereal, breakfast of champions. I'm sure the big boys and girls on here can use that as a stepping stone for further DYOR, I sure know where I stand ;)

I sure know where I stand ...Do you?...
Further explanation.. using your view why the other scenarios should not happen will remove the doubt

EDIT:...NZX50 reference???

Xerof

25-03-2014, 01:42 PM

There's a whole stream of currency threads moosie, see Forex

I shall forgive you for your all-time-high comment, as you are young and canadian ;)

the high for NZD/USD is ~ 1.25, (and in my lifetime too), so only another 40 cents before we retest it!

Hoop

25-03-2014, 01:55 PM

All time high for Kiwi, unsustainable AUDxNZD cross, China looking to stimulus = Aussie mining picking up = stronger economy = stronger AUD, not to mention theetechnical chart I posted pointing to possible breakout on the main currency AUD is compared with.

A bit happier now?
Yes..:)

Theres no currency thread and thought others might want a heads up, not to mentiob companies like EBO and FBU being affected...

AUDNZD five year lows ST forex thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9512-AUDNZD-Five-Year-Lows)

So are you suggesting FBU is going to go from bearish to bullish?
and
Are you suggesting that the RBNZ flagging another 4 rate rises this year is already factored into the NZ$..To me that flagging suggests NZ economy is going to remain/get stronger wouldn't it??...Wouldn't this suggest NZX50 index will remain strong and perhaps over take the AORDS index?..Wouldn't it also suggest the NZ$ will remain Globally strong and helped along by a resurgence of the A$ together with NZ 2nd biggest trading partner "coming right" economically.....
OK..that's a rosy argument side
I could come up with an equality pessimistic argument side as well..commodities ???(Aussi is commodity driven economy too?)...but hey I'm in optimistic mode today :cool:

..Try me tommorrow

Mista_Trix

03-04-2014, 10:40 AM

NZX volumes up but value drops
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9899873/NZX-volumes-up-but-value-drops

Purely speculation below...
As Hoop likes to remind us, falls happen when everyone's 'all in' and there's no more money pushing prices up.
Are we seeing that with a larger amount of smaller trades occurring, and a fewer amount of larger ones??
... ... as in, the last guys left are now jumping in.

nextbigthing

07-04-2014, 07:19 PM

5678

Each one of these downtrends lasts around 6 weeks or so and an average of about 200 points.

5679
If a new one has started, sell now, wait six weeks, then buy up large :t_up:

Disc; NBT is in no way a chartist and takes no responsibility for any decisions made. Ask Hoop or someone else that knows what they're doing.

winner69

07-04-2014, 07:44 PM

Pretty picture

Each one of these downtrends lasts a while and an average looses heaps

If a new one has started, sell now, wait a while and buy heaps

Sorry nbt - not the NZX50 but why ruin a good story

nextbigthing

07-04-2014, 08:16 PM

Sorry nbt - not the NZX50 but why ruin a good story

Don't be sorry Winner. Close correlation between the two. Makes sense.

5681

Certainly something to be aware of. When it falls it's going to hit hard I guess.

Hoop

07-04-2014, 09:43 PM

A significant feature of the last phase of a bull market cycle is often the lack of a decent correction which keeps everyone "in" capturing capital gain and are happily believing this uptrend will last a lot longer time yet ..In this last phase when correction indicators go off they "cry wolf" and investors eventually lose belief,criticise, and then ignore...When optimism reigns supreme and nearly everyone ignore warning signs, the cyclic top is near...(DOW Theory)

I made this chart this morning for a bloke who was interested in Bollinger Bands..I didn't intend to post it on ST as the market is in this "cry wolf" (Moose roaring season:D) phase...... but since everyone is posting pretty pictures, I thought "what the hell"...here is mine for what it's worth.

The predicament this person had was figuring out which way the trend would go after the Bollinger Band squeeze..adding some TA indicators helps solve the puzzle so the chart below is self explanatory....and odds favour it to be bleak this time.

...but looking back all these other corrections on the chart, TA is starting to look more like a "Drama Queen" with these "cried wolf" warnings as the corrections are followed by numerous higher highs reducing investors fear and starts breeding "buy in the dip" investors who actually cause these corrections to become shallower and shallower as their numbers grow...

However investors who use TA for buy/sell timing of shares should stay loyal to the discipline it's prudent to lay low during the warning periods...and treat the minimal opportunity cost of doing so as an insurance policy ...There will a time when topping up in a dip will prove an expensive lesson about downtrend/reversal risk

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5007042014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZX5007042014.png.html)

winner69

07-04-2014, 10:07 PM

Hoop well done

Your comment re dips becoming shallower and shallower. Read this http://hussman.net/wmc/wmc130415.htm

ESP the bit about Somette

bull....

08-04-2014, 09:26 AM

Ill stick my neck out and say last mth performance was a outlier and well revert to the mean this mth

Hoop

10-04-2014, 02:59 PM

Buying the dip:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/nasdaq-snaps-losing-streak-leads-202120866.html

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NASDQ09042014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NASDQ09042014.png.html)

Mista_Trix

10-04-2014, 03:15 PM

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NASDQ09042014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NASDQ09042014.png.html)

Is it your opinion we're coming down the other side Hoop?

bull....

11-04-2014, 10:03 AM

like i say reversion to the mean this mth

bull....

11-04-2014, 10:25 AM

Actually rotation from growth stock like tech has been occurring for a while now money going to utilities, defensives

nextbigthing

13-04-2014, 11:56 AM

Bjauck

19-04-2014, 01:15 PM

MAC

19-04-2014, 01:33 PM

Looks like Jesse Colombo from Forbes is the latest to bring up the elephant in the room: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/04/17/12-reasons-why-new-zealands-economic-bubble-will-end-in-disaster/

I know for the past 10-odd years, many have been calling a house price bubble, but for how much longer will NZ's cheap credit inflated house prices survive? Then what will happen to that mountain of debt householders accumulated during period of historically low interest rates? If there is a resultant avalanche, where will the stock market end up?

It's a cyclical matter, some cycles are longer and more volatile than others, but whether it proves to be a soft landing or a pop it will end sometime, IMO it’s got at least 12-18 months to run yet.

One aspect overlooked by Jesse Colombo is the intergenerational and demographical effect of the baby boomers. Remember when they all finished school and the resulting school closure debacle a few years on in the 80’s and early 90’s.

The wealthiest generation in human history are just about to start selling down those 3, 4 and 5 bedroom suburban homes and go looking for more suitable retirement dwellings and/or aged care facilities when the time comes.

Not all of the cash raised from selling ones previously family home finds its way back into the property sector, some goes to retirement savings and living expenses, a nice overseas trip, perhaps some will even leave the kids a sports car.

Baby boomers are now aged 54 through 69, tick tock ………………..

winner69

19-04-2014, 02:34 PM

MAC, what happens in 12-18 months time when it has run its course?

MAC

19-04-2014, 03:05 PM

Some pain Winner for generation X at the top of the interest rate cycle and for a few years that follow, but I don’t think it will be the hard landing the professional gloomer's make a living from portraying, how would they sell papers.

5738

robbo24

19-04-2014, 03:10 PM

Bjauck

19-04-2014, 05:52 PM

The wealthiest generation in human history are just about to start selling down those 3, 4 and 5 bedroom suburban homes and go looking for more suitable retirement dwellings and/or aged care facilities when the time comes.

Not all of the cash raised from selling ones previously family home finds its way back into the property sector, some goes to retirement savings and living expenses, a nice overseas trip, perhaps some will even leave the kids a sports car.

Baby boomers are now aged 54 through 69, tick tock ………………..

So true...that demographic bulge is approaching the golden years. Babyboomers are heavily invested in real estate and underinvested in financial assets (even when compared to AUS, USA and UK). The signs are not good for the property market. Hwever, if/when the property market approaches long-term valuation multiples in an orderly way, maybe it will not be all bad news for shares and the financial markets generally if downsizing boomers convert their real estate gains into an income earning portfolio and some wealth is transferred to younger mortgage-encumbered householders.

Hoop

19-04-2014, 10:15 PM

So Hoop, in the absence of a blatantly obvious catalyst such as a major country going bankrupt for example, how does a chartist tell whether it's a healthy correction or the start of a proper bear cycle?

Where are we in your opinion? My 'charts' suggested its another correction (I'm not a chartist, this is simply what has been happening and I appreciate that won't go on in this pattern forever) Winners chart suggested we're well overdue for a bear cycle that hadn't started yet, and I think your chat seems to suggest we're in a decent bear cycle?

I think your chat seems to suggest we're in a decent bear cycle?...The chart above is the NASDAQ chart..Its more ugly now but it isn't in a bear cycle (yet)..

how does a chartist tell whether it's a healthy correction or the start of a proper bear cycle?...The 11 year weekly chart below shows 2 bull cycles and one bear cycle....A healthy correction is a 10% correction it hurts but it creates available money by "stopping out" disciplined investors...A unhealthy correction is the 5% or less type as these corrections aren't big enough to create enough available money and the bull market eventually exhausts itself...The OBV tells the story ...see the OBV topping out just before the double top formation in 2007....also see the orange arrow at the beginning of this year as available money is exhausted but the question is... could this be due to the Govt floats? or due to unhealthy corrections? money leaving for a better market? or a combination of factors?
Correction or Reversal? (new bear market cycle)...Each discipline have their guidelines..a chartist discipline is usually the breaking of multiple indicators all at the same/similar time (ducks lined up in a row) ....Normally technical break down begins around the 7 or 8%..so closely watch and apply confirmation methods as the correction proceeds but becareful of the B wave this is a short relief rally...

A tell tale sign is a failed rally to create a new record high after the ending of the correction"s ABC wave. Its commonly accepted by the media that a drop of more than 20% is deemed a bear market cycle...Technically a drop of 20+% would nearly always break all the indicators...

Winners chart suggested we're well overdue for a bear cycle that hadn't started yet......The lifespan of a cyclic bull market cycle averages about 3.75 years but its not uncommon for a bull cycle to live to be older than 6 years and its not uncommon to have 2 bull cycles with a mild short lived bear cycle in the middle ....The law of averages suggests that we are overdue for a cyclic reversal...back to bear cycle...

At the moment the old Bull is healthy...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5011yrchart.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZX5011yrchart.png.html)

Cool Bear

20-04-2014, 10:15 AM

Many thanks Hoop, for your informative post and chart above. Much appreciated.

Xerof

20-04-2014, 11:25 AM

Jesse is so smart. He says that if China and Australia bubbles pop then NZ bubble will pop too. What a visionary. Wow.

rubbished here as well

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9960411/Minister-bursts-analysts-bubble

winner69

20-04-2014, 01:49 PM

We (NZ) should be proud to have a high dollar ....a sign of success I reckon

May it keep going up (maybe even back to the days when I got 1.40 odd US dollars for my little old 1 NZ dollar)

Hoop

22-04-2014, 11:51 AM

My next post relates to this 27year old wannabe but until then lets look at some quick glance 1yr chart comparisons...Yes there are some equity trend flattening but no big corrections after each exurbant steep climbs but that's what you should expect from old age Equity bulls...Aussi is the exception it doesn't show up on this chart but its post 2008 equity melt down bull died a couple of years ago, followed by a short shallow bear cycle and now back as a younger bull.. you will notice that the AOrd equities has the bigger corrections and lacks the contiuous steep climbs. The DOW shows this too but its due to only having 30 stocks in its index and any one or two unperforming stocks can make a difference.

Currency charts speak for themselves...and yes I agree with Winner69 ...over an established long term periods a high currency signifies good and stable economic health...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/CandleGlance21042014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/CandleGlance21042014.png.html)

Hoop

22-04-2014, 01:26 PM

In my opinion Forbes online has gone downhill in quality reporting...shame really...Its following the likes of Matchwatch adding drama to attract the online masses...

First of all...I have an open mind and crashes do happen...so I will not discount a crash happening in the near future...but as for Jesse Colombo I will never credited him as a seer for it.. he's written a very simplistic one sided article on a very serious subject which can cause serious consequences.

He is also presented no chartist skills as he used charts in a biased manner..
example
http://blogs-images.forbes.com/jessecolombo/files/2014/04/HousingPrices.png

New Zealand’s housing prices have doubled in the past decade, forming a property bubble:....Counter argument NZ housing prices trend has decelerated from doubling in the previous 6 years to increasing 12% nationwide in the last 6 years due mostly to 2 centres Auckland and Christchurch..

Counter reasoning: the housing bubble was far larger back in 2007 (see chart)...Using Jesse Colombo chart logic the NZ housing bubble should've burst back in 2007/2008...

My Personal Opinion: I do realise that there more downward negative pressure being applied recently to the property market with the adding with the cyclic bottoming of interest rates to the other negative factors, new restriction to enter the market, to the already lessening trend of household income, changing demograghic profile, etc. There are more negatives than positives now..

I think the duogenerational secular bull market (50yrs) has now reached its limits and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a secular bear market begin from here ...but ending in a crash is not the only option....since 2008 (see chart) there seems to be a slow orderly market re adjustment (degassing)...The RBNZ have gently applying the screws (as other countries have done) it was a risk in my opinion but backed with hindsight it seems to be working with having positive results and not the feared negative crash catalyst effect...

Enough time spent on this Jessie guy..except to say that this article argument is forum grade stuff (apologies to ST) .......

Jesse Colombo has responded on 21st April defending his argument (http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/04/17/12-reasons-why-new-zealands-economic-bubble-will-end-in-disaster/)

Hoop

22-04-2014, 02:00 PM

Just remember Hoop, everyone starts out as a "wannabe" needing to learn as much as possible in as short a time as possible.

If you're updating your stalking excel spreadsheet, I'm turning 28 soon as well. I look forward to your gift in the mail with bated breath ;)

What do you want for your birthday? ...a girl moose? :D

Hoop

22-04-2014, 03:03 PM

Already got one thanks Hoop! I am notoriously hard to buy for, but maple syrup is a dead ringer every time ;)

Just noticed Mr Colombo is in the same age range as me. I assume you were referring to him and not me in your OP???

I was referring to Mr Colombo...but now you mentioned it....Nah.. just kidding :D.....

Back to topic...You noticed I added the Russell 2000 index...The media says it to be a leading indicator for the S&P500 ..Theory has it that when a cyclic reversal threat emerges investors fly away from smaller companies back to "safer" and large yielding stocks such as utilities .....I'm not convinced the Russell 2000 is a leader though...I will chart S&P 500 with the Russell 2000 comparison when I get time....

lets hope that the Nasdq and the Russell 2000 are just corrections,,,

robbo24

24-04-2014, 07:50 PM

Indeed! Isn't the Wilshire 5,000 a more complete view of the market however? I noticed the DJI is a mere 200 points off its record. Strong US data this week could push it above this level...

Looks like nzx50 bounced off the high today.

Macd, dmi, obv, rsi & stochastic seem to suggest its in a better position to BEAST MODE its way thru the high next week.

No double top here ladies.

karen1

26-04-2014, 09:02 AM

For those who went into panic, or paroxyms of laughter after reading what Jesse Colombo had to say for himself, and if you hadn't already figured out what motivates his type, here it is, in black and white. Nice money if you can get it.... "Gloomy economic predictions can pay, literally. The intense interest in Forbes columnist Jesse Colombo's warning of a New Zealand economic bubble will fatten his wallet, as Forbes online contributors are paid for 'clicks' and paid extra for repeat visits".

From http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9973731/Need-to-know-Thursday-April-24

couta1

26-04-2014, 09:18 AM

The Russians are on the march and US stocks down,NZX under pressure come monday

robbo24

26-04-2014, 11:17 AM

Nek minnit

robbo24

26-04-2014, 02:15 PM

The Russians are on the march and US stocks down,NZX under pressure come monday

I'm pretty sure Russian investors are feeling the squeeze even more so: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-25/russian-markets-have-worst-week-since-crimea-as-s-p-cuts-rating.html

Perhaps Moosie-the-Trader could short some Russian stocks...

bull....

26-04-2014, 03:21 PM

tech stocks not the space to be utilities are, In NZ things like POWER COMPANIES, TEL, RBD, TWR will outperform me think reliable companies with good solid earnings and divs, just look at the dow utilities everything down and that index up on fri

youngatheart

26-04-2014, 04:52 PM

One would find relatively safety with cash positive stocks like DIL though. Having survived the last 2 weeks relatively well when compared to the other NZ tech stocks. PLUS FYR statements will be released next week! I predict Tuesday...

pierre

30-04-2014, 12:12 PM

According to anz securities (ex DB) the index is at 5201 now.

robbo24

30-04-2014, 12:27 PM

And we wait with bated breath ... 5,200 is the ceiling and now .... 5,199 ... Is this the 3rd or 4th attempt to break 5,200 in the last 3 months?

Will it break the resistance level? And more importantly - will it become the new support?

discl: IMNSHO it'll be NO and NO ... But I'm a pessimist. ;)

edited: Hang on - are yahoo's figures right?

5200 is a ceiling but it is a higher high. Try bigcharts.Com instead.

winner69

30-04-2014, 12:34 PM

I did say 5500 before the end of the year

No more 5000 by Xmas predictions ..... maybe 6000 by Xmas is the new cry

nextbigthing

04-05-2014, 07:11 PM

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/10002462/Venture-capitalist-wants-to-help-kids

Good on him.

MAC

13-05-2014, 10:38 AM

couta1

13-05-2014, 11:39 AM

John could raise $297.5M for the surplus in tax just from light and idle reading here on ST. Do consider making your IR3's picture perfect this year.

http://www.interest.co.nz/news/69871/john-key-says-budget-2014-include-extra-nz132-mln-over-5-years-new-ird-crackdown-tax-comp

Looks like the target is those who dont file returns full stop so if your filing an IR3 your no more a target than normal.

Hoop

15-05-2014, 10:54 AM

Bumblebees Can Fly Higher Than Mount Everest, Scientists Find (http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2014/02/04/bumblebees-can-fly-higher-than-mount-everest-scientists-find/)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5015052014.jpg (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZX5015052014.jpg.html)

kiora

30-05-2014, 09:33 AM

And holding house prices up & dropping our exchange rates ????

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-shuns-bonds-pimco-gross-143619447.html

If Gross from Pimco is right and Goldman Sachs, BlackRockand JPMorgan Chase are wrong then the new normal of lower I-rates should be pushing stock markets up for some time to come.

Blue Horseshoe

31-05-2014, 09:58 AM

Can someone tell me who's the next in line to be added to the nzx50 after PEB get kicked out?.

winner69

31-05-2014, 10:18 AM

Can someone tell me who's the next in line to be added to the nzx50 after PEB get kicked out?.

Good to know eh ...one more stock to avoid

noodles

31-05-2014, 03:32 PM

Seems like the NZD is finally dropping ... We've just seen FPH go ballistic - some of which would have been currency related - Who's next?

GPG - just Coates and its all overseas! (but i-rates worldwide aren't going up fast enough so plenty of guesses here.) Still should be good for a %-to-% in sp (i.e. each % NZD down, GPG up)

THL - Holidays will get cheaper for overseas people ... But there'll be the inevitable lag.

XRO, DIL, etc. - revenues in non-NZD

Others?
Good for comvita.
Bad for importers. Warehouse, colonial motors

percy

31-05-2014, 03:38 PM

EBO. Majority of their earnings are in Australia.
PAZ,[unlisted market] Most/all of their products are exported.

iceman

01-06-2014, 07:53 AM

1c change in the NZD/USD exchange rate translates into approximately NZ$ 1M difference to the bottom line for Sanford !

noodles

01-06-2014, 08:26 AM

Airworks is another to benefit

winner69

04-06-2014, 09:06 AM

really pleased with the $ coming back....... another bad night for the dairy auctions last night has helped.
Trend is down against the Aussie hopefully see 88 in a few weeks.
Really like to see 82 US as well.

No no snaps .....NZD can't go down (for purely selfish reasons)

And we should be proud of a high dollar anyway

Looks like the world is starting to unravel again

Hoop

04-06-2014, 09:46 AM

really pleased with the $ coming back....... another bad night for the dairy auctions last night has helped.
Trend is down against the Aussie hopefully see 88 in a few weeks.
Really like to see 82 US as well.
Becareful what you wish for Snapiti...
High currency most often signals good stable national economic health....
I've got this feeling NZ is coming out of the other side of its economic sweet spot..all the ducks are slowly leaving that row....Hmmm maybe the time is near to start looking at Aussi (or further a field) again

Santiago

04-06-2014, 02:35 PM

Becareful what you wish for Snapiti...
High currency most often signals good stable national economic health....
I've got this feeling NZ is coming out of the other side of its economic sweet spot..all the ducks are slowly leaving that row....Hmmm maybe the time is near to start looking at Aussi (or further a field) again

Well if that's the case, that was the quickest economic boom I've ever seen. Premature ejaculation. I guess "rockstar" is correct, then. I'm not talking Stones. I'm talking one hit and then oblivion, drug addled middle age, and then an embarrassing ending doing voice overs for cartoon trains.

shambles

08-06-2014, 11:41 AM

BlackPeter

08-06-2014, 01:06 PM

Hi Sharetraders,

I hope it's not inappropriate for me to ask this on a public forum, but I am a daily Sharetrader follower and respect the wisdom of many posters on here.

I'm hoping some of you may be able to offer some thoughts (not financial advice!).

I need to exit my portfolio for a house purchase over the next 8 weeks and would like to time my exit as strongly as possible to lock in maximum gains.

I currently hold:

IFT
GPG
SUM
MRP
SML
THL
MELCA
HNZ

It really would be much appreciated if anyone could offer some insight as to an exit strategy, any FA / TA advice of which stocks to exit first or hold for another 6 weeks.

Kind regards and many thanks
Shambles

Hmm - feels like being asked to predict whether we will have sunshine or rain on August 3rd, 2014 (i.e. the Sunday 8 weeks from now). Would you believe anybody who claims that they can predict today the weather on that date? Personally I wouldn't hold any funds which I need within weeks or months as shares:scared:.

Many of your shares are as well in the short term quite sensitive to what the public thinks the next government will look like. Shares like e.g. MELCA / MRP / IFT are likely to rise if the mood goes towards National and are likely to drop if the mood goes towards Labour/Green/Purple/Grey.

Long term I think that your portfolio looks quite healthy (actually, I hold most of these shares as well and don't intend to sell anytime soon), but I guess this doesn't help a lot with you current decision. Anyway - good luck for getting it right - and I hope that you have enough buffer that it won't hurt you too much, whatever the share price is doing!

couta1

08-06-2014, 01:16 PM

Shambles Sum has Q2 sales figures due out by July 10th so should see a small spike in price maybe to $3.60 ? Something to consider anyway.

Hoop

08-06-2014, 01:19 PM

winner69

08-06-2014, 02:03 PM

I concur with Black Peter and wouldn't be holding any funds which I need within weeks or months as shares.

The longer you leave the decision to sell, ie the shorter the time before you need the funds, the more risk you taking.

I'd be selling up soon and not taking any chances with being 'forced' to sell on a bad day or two.

But whatever you do make it your considered decision.

Xerof

08-06-2014, 02:16 PM

Yes, if you are unconditional on the property, Monday would be a good day to liquidate.

shambles

08-06-2014, 08:06 PM

Thank you everyone for your replies, I appreciate all your comments.

Moosie, I haven't got my head around charting tbh, I really should spend some time educating myself how to understand more than general trend lines and basic fundamentals!

COUTA. Thanks for your thoughts re SUM. I may split my holding there, sell half this week then follow sentiment closely to offload the rest.

Hoop, the house is a rental to add to the portfolio, with a view to redevelop into high end townhouses over the next 2-3 years. It's a good site in a top suburb .. and a great price. Shame to have to largely exit my portfolio, but this deal is a no brainer.

Black Peter, Winner, Xerof and Snapiti. Duly noted, trying to squeeze the extra 2-3% top end when the alternative could quite easily be negative territory. Never a bad thing to leave some in it for the next guy..

Thank you Gentlemen, and once again, for the regular insightful evening readings.

shambles

09-06-2014, 06:03 PM

[QUOTE=belgarion;485363]Hi Shambles,

My DIY advice would be:

Absolute Gold.

Thank you Belg

shambles

09-06-2014, 06:04 PM

Shambles, get on the Investopedia website and learn MACD, RSI and Stochastic with a few charts of say SUM and IFT to get the hang of it. Easy as and the best half an hour you will spend educating yourself! :D

On it, thanks Moosie. Which (free?) charting platform would you recommend for tracking MACD etc?

Hoop

24-06-2014, 12:01 AM

After reading the NZRB monetary statement I have this to say .... They have it wrong!

I.e. slamming the breaks on far, far, far too early!

I am not impressed. :(

Maybe the Market is agreeing with you Belg...
or
Maybe just another healthy bull market correction for this geriatric bull.

this is a broken neckline from a very flat H&S pattern so chart pattern theory has it it will be another shallow correction..The lower and wider the pattern the less reliable it is (Bulkowski).... target price 4910 [5070-(5230-5070)] but there are 2 major supports around 4950 area so odds reaching 4910 is lower

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5023062014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZX5023062014.png.html)

Blue Horseshoe

27-06-2014, 10:38 AM

NZX data feed about is good as half the stocks on it.

winner69

27-06-2014, 11:51 AM

so the first fix didn't work .... suppose the next fix will

Just as well the rest of the world doesn't care about this little country

sommelier

27-06-2014, 11:54 AM

Headline: "NZX Crashes".

winner69

27-06-2014, 12:42 PM

Gaynor not impressed. Hasn't been able to buy his 300000 ATM

"It's not that it happened, it is the regularity of it happening," Brian Gaynor, executive director of Milford Asset Management told BusinessDesk. "It happens around the world, you get these things, but it is happening too often with the NZX and I think it dents confidence in the way the organisation is run. It shouldn't have these kind of problems.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11283023

Hoop

01-07-2014, 02:42 PM

NZ50 beginning to look broken?

It became technically broken last week (Monday 23rd) Belg. It broke a small support, the EMA50, and more seriously it broke the H&S pattern neck line all on the same day....see my last weeks chart 24th June Post#1678 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6952-NZSX50-Good-News!/page112)

The H&S (head & shoulder) pattern is very flat so one would expect the break would only create a small correction.
....however....
My discipline is similar to Phaedrus'..... when the index (where my shares are included in) breaks down I cease to buy new company shares (cease accumulating too) and strictly keep to the selling discipline, any sell signal MUST be adhered to...that mean't my favourite AIR shares that triggered sell signals had to be sold...

For me... it stays this way (no buying) until the NZX50 triggers buy signals again

Beagle

01-07-2014, 04:02 PM

Treasury and Reserve bank have this wrong. Brakes are being applied too hard and too fast.
If you are a dairy farmer in the Waikato with no debt you're unquestionably doing well, although even then you're looking at a payout that's significantly reduced this coming season too what it has been.

Buesiness confidence is being sapped by higher interest rates and consumer confidence will follow.
NZX 50 forward PE ratio's are stretched to the limit and face an acid test against rising interest rates.
Further...we are seeing an almost unprecendented supply of new listings coming to the market so overall I think its hard to make headway when you appear to be swimming against the tide. Who could be surprised if the market corrects or at best goes sideways for the next quarter or two ?

BIRMANBOY

01-07-2014, 05:02 PM

What buy signals will you looking for Hoop?
It became technically broken last week (Monday 23rd) Belg. It broke a small support, the EMA50, and more seriously it broke the H&S pattern neck line all on the same day....see my last weeks chart 24th June Post#1678 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6952-NZSX50-Good-News!/page112)

The H&S (head & shoulder) pattern is very flat so one would expect the break would only create a small correction.
....however....
My discipline is similar to Phaedrus'..... when the index (where my shares are included in) breaks down I cease to buy new company shares (cease accumulating too) and strictly keep to the selling discipline, any sell signal MUST be adhered to...that mean't my favourite AIR shares that triggered sell signals had to be sold...

For me... it stays this way (no buying) until the NZX50 triggers buy signals again

Hoop

01-07-2014, 07:46 PM

What buy signals will you looking for Hoop?
BB...there are tons of TA indicators and various TA methods that others may prefer..The buy signals I will be watching will be the indicators that I'm personally comfortable with...I keep it simple with only a few indicators...using too many indicators can overcomplicate matters and affect decision making..
So..with reference to the charts I post on ST the signals would be from:
Charting
1....a clear break above the EMA50 currently at ~5150
2....a clear break above the 5150 (5160) resistance (ex 2 weeks ago support) line
3....Change of trend ...create a higher high..has to be above 5200
4....A failed H&S (head & shoulder) pattern....needs the index to break above the pattern's upsloping neck lines...say 5200 by this Friday or 5220 by the following Friday.
TA indicators...(all 3 are negative or downtrending atm)
5....OBV needs to reverse to an uptrend
6....RSI (14) needs to rise up to above 50 and/or confirm an uptrend.
7....DMI when +DI crosses to be above the -DI

Usually the TA indicators signal closely with the charting lines and patterns...sometime a "warning" divergence happens when "unusual" trading behaviour is detected by the indicators..

I take note but don't act upon a single buy trigger...I wait for confirmation from other signals...With a solid reversal many buy triggers will fire off close to each other or all at once...The more trigger signals firing the stronger the chance of that event will continue to happen.

Sometimes life can be a bitch and things get complicated...If I'm undecided or smell a rat I will look to some other specific TA indicators for help

NZX50 closed at 5146 up 5 (+0.1%)..It's not far away but more work has to be done to repair its technical damage...until that happens I stay on the sidelines.

Disc: Equities 60%(and decreasing) Cash 40%(and increasing)

BIRMANBOY

02-07-2014, 09:28 AM

Thanks Hoop...interesting reading.
BB...there are tons of TA indicators and various TA methods that others may prefer..The buy signals I will be watching will be the indicators that I'm personally comfortable with...I keep it simple with only a few indicators...using too many indicators can overcomplicate matters and affect decision making..
So..with reference to the charts I post on ST the signals would be from:
Charting
1....a clear break above the EMA50 currently at ~5150
2....a clear break above the 5150 (5160) resistance (ex 2 weeks ago support) line
3....Change of trend ...create a higher high..has to be above 5200
4....A failed H&S (head & shoulder) pattern....needs the index to break above the pattern's upsloping neck lines...say 5200 by this Friday or 5220 by the following Friday.
TA indicators...(all 3 are negative or downtrending atm)
5....OBV needs to reverse to an uptrend
6....RSI (14) needs to rise up to above 50 and/or confirm an uptrend.
7....DMI when +DI crosses to be above the -DI

Usually the TA indicators signal closely with the charting lines and patterns...sometime a "warning" divergence happens when "unusual" trading behaviour is detected by the indicators..

I take note but don't act upon a single buy trigger...I wait for confirmation from other signals...With a solid reversal many buy triggers will fire off close to each other or all at once...The more trigger signals firing the stronger the chance of that event will continue to happen.

Sometimes life can be a bitch and things get complicated...If I'm undecided or smell a rat I will look to some other specific TA indicators for help

NZX50 closed at 5146 up 5 (+0.1%)..It's not far away but more work has to be done to repair its technical damage...until that happens I stay on the sidelines.

Disc: Equities 60%(and decreasing) Cash 40%(and increasing)

macduffy

07-07-2014, 02:34 PM

From Robert Shiller . OK, he's talking about the USA - but does it apply to the NZX as well?

“I am definitely concerned. When was [the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio or CAPE] higher than it is now? I can tell you: 1929, 2000 and 2007. Very low interest rates help to explain the high CAPE. That doesn’t mean that the high CAPE isn’t a forecast of bad performance. When I look at interest rates in a forecasting regression with the CAPE, I don’t get much additional benefit from looking at interest rates… We don’t know what it’s going to do. There could be a massive crash, like we saw in 2000 and 2007, the last two times it looked like this. But I don’t know. I think, realistically, stocks should be in someone’s portfolio. Maybe lighten up… One thing though, I don’t know how many people look at plots of the market. If you just look at a plot of one of the major averages in the U.S., you’ll see what look like three peaks – 2000, 2007 and now – it just looks to me like a peak. I&rsq uo;m not saying it is. I would think that there are people thinking – way – it’s gone way up since 2009. It’s likely to turn down again, just like it did the last two times.”
Professor Robert Shiller, June 25, 2014, The Daily Ticker

MAC

07-07-2014, 03:58 PM

Wow, Shiller sounds really schizophrenic there. I think we all are though. Fear of the unknown and all that. All I know is there is a strong correlation between raising interest rates and a falling market, and that NZ has already started and the US is firmly on that track as well...

We’ll all forgive you Moosie because you are a humble TA.

Both history and fundamental analysis tells us that sharemarket’s typically prosper in rising interest rate environments, particularly growth stocks.

It’s when central banks consider it is time to reverse policy and stop raising interest rates that you need to be concerned about economic growth stalling, forward earnings projections dropping off, and resulting detrimental effects on the sharemarket.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9278-Is-This-Bull-Cycle-Over&p=462006&highlight=interest+rates#post462006

http://disciplinedinvesting.blogspot.co.nz/2014/01/rising-interest-rates-can-be-good-for.html

MAC

07-07-2014, 04:36 PM

Sorry, I should have elaborated on that a bit more. I meant high-tech/growth stocks with no/little earnings or profit will suffer in a rising interest rate environment as the cheap miney tap used to fuel them is turned off. We have already seen a shuffle from these stocks to the bigger, profitable companies within our market.

I was thinking of the all encompassing tech bubble in 2000 when I made the previous comment; everything was son intertwined that as soon as the Fed raised rates itall came crashing down! Of course the Nasdaq and Internet Composite suffered horrendously, but since the US economy was still growing quite well until 9/11 the DJI certainly outperformed until then.

Hope that clears it up! :)

Not so, growth stocks prosper for a couple of reasons,

Generally investor cash moves from cyclical stocks which tend to become fully valued on elevated PE ratio's to profitable growth stocks, or near profitable growth stocks, as investors seek the same returns that cyclicals no longer provide.

Also growth oriented companies with large piles of corporate cash, record levels as at present, will now start to apply that cash as capex in pursuit of taking profits from an improving economy. Investors will follow this growth and the shareprice returns it offers.

Any dip in growth stocks (not defined as spec tech stocks) with good fundamentals should be looked at as a gift about here.

winner69

07-07-2014, 08:19 PM

Moosie - this guy agrees with you

Sharemarkets set for biggest tumble since GFC, says veteran investor Han K. Lee
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/markets/sharemarkets-set-for-biggest-tumble-since-gfc-says-veteran-investor-han-k-lee-20140707-zsyj6.html

Thought of MAC when I read this bit - “Now the situation is even more perverse. It doesn’t matter whether the latest data is good or bad, brokers are finding a rationale to interpret everything as an excuse for why shares should continue to rise.” ....even PEB maybe

Hoop

07-07-2014, 08:21 PM

We’ll all forgive you Moosie because you are a humble TA.

Both history and fundamental analysis tells us that sharemarket’s typically prosper in rising interest rate environments, particularly growth stocks.

It’s when central banks consider it is time to reverse policy and stop raising interest rates that you need to be concerned about economic growth stalling, forward earnings projections dropping off, and resulting detrimental effects on the sharemarket.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9278-Is-This-Bull-Cycle-Over&p=462006&highlight=interest+rates#post462006

http://disciplinedinvesting.blogspot.co.nz/2014/01/rising-interest-rates-can-be-good-for.html

Partially Disagree.
Interest rates are not considered a driver of the Stockmarket...why?

Before the 1980s interest rates had a loose correlation with Equities..Yep..rising interest rates together with rising stockmarket ...All this changed with the introduction of Monetary policy...when the correlation flipped to reverse correlation when interest rates were used as a tool to control inflation..Inflation is the primary driver of the Stockmarket and as Monetary policy was introduced into the various countries their stockmarkets interest rates did react but only when inflation was present as well..
Most of the data from various "media researchers" don't allow for these differences and some mix the pre-monetary data with the post monetary data.. so some of it is muddled statistical lies..
I quickly dragged this chart of Google Search as this chart reinforces the story with the flipping of the loose correlation to reverse correlation occurring about 1982 with the S&P 500 in red.

http://streettalklive.com/images/stories/1dailyxchange/Interest-Rate-SP500-061713.PNG
As I don't want to bore everyone by writing a book on Sharemarket Theory..there is much written on this subject as studying the Secular cycles highlights the true drivers of the sharemarket which are inflation and the Annualised PE Ratio ...you see the interest rates don't seem to have a large effect in Secular bear cycles either with or without Monetary Policy...

So to make it totally plain to everybody..The only reason why the S&P 500 is considered overvalued but not well overvalued considering its historically very high PE Ratio is because of its driver (inflation) being in its sweet spot of 1 to 2% range.. when inflation moves either up or down outside of its sweet spot range the sh1t will hit the fundamental fan...

A lot of information regarding the interest correlation? subject is scattered throughout on the Investing Strategies and Secular Bear Markets thread

(http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets)

bull....

18-07-2014, 07:52 AM

isreal invasion starts, market tanks

Hoop

18-07-2014, 12:13 PM

Gold gold gold and nothing but...

Shhh...lets not let Skol know we are here:D

winner69

20-07-2014, 04:10 PM

Just a reminder that the OCR is being reviewed this coming Thursday (24 July). The Moose Fund is betting Mr Wheeler doesn't have the cajones to increase it yet again (this time around at least...).

does that imply you think he needs to / should do?

Hoop

20-07-2014, 06:58 PM

Maybe the Market is agreeing with you Belg...
or
Maybe just another healthy bull market correction for this geriatric bull.

this is a broken neckline from a very flat H&S pattern so chart pattern theory has it it will be another shallow correction..The lower and wider the pattern the less reliable it is (Bulkowski).... target price 4910 [5070-(5230-5070)] but there are 2 major supports around 4950 area so odds reaching 4910 is lower

NZX50 broke it's Head and Shoulder pattern creating multi sell signals on the 20th June. In past history it is very common for a completely formed H&S pattern to pullback its losses to test its neckline area. In this case it did and in doing so created false buy signals (bull trap) to occur...As of now the NZX50 is still technically broken and is now entering a conjunction area (5100) involving its primary trend line..There is a serious situation developing, although it is not uncommon for a bull market cycle correction to break their primary up trend line, an investor has to start thinking of cyclic reversals as another possible option when the Bull becomes an elderly gent...
Just how many more corrections before one is the reversal we don't know, but we have to remind ourselves each time there's a breakdown that this bull is 5.25 years old and has entered bonus time...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5018072014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZX5018072014.png.html)

Jasemc

20-07-2014, 07:17 PM

As long as us has a vision of hope to grow the economy then all is fine.

Hoop

20-07-2014, 08:15 PM

As long as us has a vision of hope to grow the economy then all is fine.

China and Australia...before US

Okebw

01-08-2014, 10:59 AM

A veritable sea of red thus far ... With PPL breaking the trend [sheesh]

The decliners list makes for some pretty grim reading. I think it would have to be the worst opening since I starting to follow the markets. Gentracks fall is explained, but is there a particular reason as to the others?

The only logical reason I can see is the NZD falling against the USD and that international investors have been waiting for an opportunity to get out

777

01-08-2014, 11:07 AM

The decliners list makes for some pretty grim reading. I think it would have to be the worst opening since I starting to follow the markets. Gentracks fall is explained, but is there a particular reason as to the others?

The only logical reason I can see is the NZD falling against the USD and that international investors have been waiting for an opportunity to get out

The world markets dropped overnight. We followed.

Bjauck

09-08-2014, 08:29 AM

A good piece which sums up how I trade and can be stuck up on the wall next to your trading bot/computer/direct line to broker/crystal ball :)

http://spahiu.wordpress.com/2006/05/27/the-not-so-simple/

I read Spahiu's piece. So many of his rules would seem to lead to trader activity exacerbating and prolonging what he himself calls market irrationality. It is a shame that his blog did not go beyond 2006 as it would have been interesting to see how 2007-2009 treated him and affected his outlook and rules.

Disc: Long term investor

winner69

11-08-2014, 10:10 AM

Geez. They're a cheery bunch out there ...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11306890

As cheery as Belgarion. ;)

Your cash plié looking good then belg

Buy heaps of good things sometime

BlackPeter

11-08-2014, 12:33 PM

Cash pie just got bigger ... sold one of my investment properties over the weekend.

Sorry people of NZ - you'll get NO tax from the sale (actually less as it went to an
owner occupier fresh of the boat who is retiring in NZ) while Belgie nets
another 6 figure un-taxed capital gain.

Actually - if you are in the business of buying and selling properties, than you need to pay taxes for capital gains (which really are just your income). Are you?

Anyway - I trust you donate your untaxed gains to fill Labours war chest (turning Belg into Labours DotCom - LOL) ... and Labour will recycle this money into pretty pledge cards (saving the tax payer much more money than they paid for Labours previous pledge card).

And assuming these pledge cards are successful, than Labour / Green / Winston First / Mana later take over and are going to tax our last shirt(s) away. May you live in taxing times:sleep:

Vaygor1

11-08-2014, 01:12 PM

Your cash plié looking good then belg

Buy heaps of good things sometime

If belg made $1000 for his cash plié, would that make it a grand plié ?

6125

Given this move, i guess you'll will be keen to put some Labour into the ballet box belg?

Bjauck

11-08-2014, 01:54 PM

Cash pie just got bigger ... sold one of my investment properties over the weekend.

Sorry people of NZ - you'll get NO tax from the sale (actually less as it went to an
owner occupier fresh of the boat who is retiring in NZ) while Belgie nets
another 6 figure un-taxed capital gain.

You are acting logically according to the NZ tax and financial system. The greatest returns lead to people investing in real estate where loans are easy to come by, income tax is minimised and capital gains remain untaxed. Part of the reason why the stock market is so small (in comparison to our GDP). The Labour Party proposed CGT will probably do little to address that apart from encouraging a greater investment in CGT-exempt primary residences! IMHO, All investment returns should be taxed where the return exceeds the increase in CPI in addition to taxing imputed rent (where the return on value exceeds the CPI increase) on owner occupied residences. However it is doubtful that a party would be elected on such a policy platform, unfortunately.

Hoop

11-08-2014, 02:29 PM

You are acting logically according to the NZ tax and financial system. The greatest returns lead to people investing in real estate where loans are easy to come by, income tax is minimised and capital gains remain untaxed. Part of the reason why the stock market is so small (in comparison to our GDP). The Labour Party proposed CGT will probably do little to address that apart from encouraging a greater investment in CGT-exempt primary residences! IMHO, All investment returns should be taxed where the return exceeds the increase in CPI in addition to taxing imputed rent (where the return on value exceeds the CPI increase) on owner occupied residences. However it is doubtful that a party would be elected on such a policy platform, unfortunately.

Unfortunately you say...

A story....Back in July 2008 this chap found a brass lamp..He rubbed it and out popped a genie granting him one wish.
He thought carefully and then responded I would like to own 10 Billion Dollars and be in my personal bank account as of now...POOF..his wish came true...there in his account was $NZ1 the result of the conversion of 10 Billion Zimbabwe Dollars.

Moral of the story.....Be careful what you wish for as it may not be in the form you wanted..

Hoop

11-08-2014, 04:11 PM

Point taken. Any CGT will need to be designed very carefully.

BTW ... If the guy had "thought carefully" as you story says ... He'd have specified the currency.

He should have wished for world peace ;)

Consequently, serves him right.
Hmmm serves him right...
It's can be the intangible inferences that does the damage...for example ...A capital gains tax on used goods, gambling, etc sounds morally right but can upset the systems and the companies involved via demand problems, TAB and its staff, House racing industry,Trade me,etc...then the trickle down effect

CGT on property to stop the greedy rich B's might sound morally right but the system it effects the most would be the middle class and the banking system as the greedy rich B's just move on to another sector...

The situation at the moment in NZ is the housing market is still an overpriced bubble which has been slowly degassing since 2006 (except Auckland ,CHCH)...They are fragile..the air from butterfly wings can pop this Bubble....I think NZ has done well in not popping this bubble during the GFC, other Countries in the world did not handle this bubble well and seen it pop with massive social upheaval and misery....The last thing you want to happen is NZ or OZ now after all the hard work in degassing the bubble is to end up like Spain..It's bubble burst due to demand problems. (remember Spain did have a model financial system envied by the rest of Europe and the USA)

A CGT is an instrument which serves no real value to the Income stream of NZinc it's a blunt demand curbing type tax instrument which should be introduced after a market correction when demand is at it's lowest ...not before and probably causing a correction which would affect everyone's welfare (not just property holders) for years

Be careful what you wish for as it may not be in the form you wanted...eh?

BlackPeter

11-08-2014, 06:34 PM

What do I wish for? ... All the fear mongering associated with the introduction of a CGT would dissipate. ;)

Hi Belg, we all know that you think a Capital Gains Tax would be the next best thing after a Labour government (and sliced bread) ...

and hey, I see your point of view: Introduction of a CGT means a much more complicated tax system, more bureaucracy, more IRD staff, more accountants ... must be all good from a Labour perspective - lets do it!.

Given that many capital gains are a zero-sum gain (one party wins, one party looses) would this mean as well that the net gain to the tax payer would be close to Zero (but they still have to pay the additional bureaucracy) - and it might be double negative (negative income plus additional bureaucracy) during times when the state can least afford not to get tax income, just imagine to write off all these post GFC losses from taxable income.

Just give us some examples for countries where the introduction of a CGT improved the economic well-being of its citizens ...

GTM 3442

11-08-2014, 07:00 PM

A CGT can be implemented in many ways.

At the moment, the NZ tax system focusses on income and expenditure. These are relatively simple to measure, as they are transaction-based.

It is possible that a CGT would be implemented on a value base, which would be a major change. There is little detail in the public arena concerning the details of what CGT would cover, how it would be assessed, and so on.

This lack of information is positively frightening.

nextbigthing

11-08-2014, 08:09 PM

Belg you could be like Sue Bradford and stand up for your morals and donate the portion a capital gains would have taken off you to low income earners or a suitable charity* anyway. Just because it's not law it doesn't have to stop you living by your beliefs. 'Practice what you preach' as some would say....

*Eg Cancer society or the NBT Bahamas retirement fund

nextbigthing

11-08-2014, 08:48 PM

*Moosie return to Canada fund is always taking donations too ;)

Might I suggest asking Hancock for a donation, I suspect he will support that cause :D

Vaygor1

11-08-2014, 11:35 PM

*Moosie return to Canada fund is always taking donations too ;)

Also the Repatriate-Vaygor-to-NZ-with-his-27-cubic-metres-of-sh!t fund is open for donors.

Bjauck

12-08-2014, 08:43 AM

Unfortunately you say...
Moral of the story.....Be careful what you wish for as it may not be in the form you wanted..

I will never give up wishing for World peace. V.

Bjauck

12-08-2014, 08:57 AM

Um ... Take any of the top 10 countries (excluding NZ of course).

BP - you really should do just a tiny bit of research before posting. It would have taken about 5 minute and you'd not have posted that.

The UK and USA, the two big English speaking countries we like to compare ourselves to have CGT. They also have non-retirement PEP schemes whereby individuals can receive favourable tax treatent for a certain amount invested each year. CGT should be introduced along with such a scheme in NZ too.

Bjauck

12-08-2014, 09:28 AM

So are most CGT systems. When an item is turned into cash and that cash amount was more than what was paid, apply a CPI adjustment and then calc a percentage. Oversimplification I know but for most transactions its pretty simple.

It is frightening if, as the ill-informed and/or scare mongers are encouraging you to believe, one assumes the worst case. The reality will be pretty benign although everyone at ST will feel the impacts including me. Actually, if the NZX share comp is anything to go by, this year only about 30% of us will. ;)

If, as in the UK and US for example, a CGT is introduced along with a Private Equity Plan (PEP) scheme then a certain amount each year would be able to be invested in equities without attracting CGT. So apart from big established investors, many people would be able to reduce the impact of a CGT. However as the Labour Party does not seem to have plans for a PEP scheme and will exempt the family home, it seems to be a flawed scheme.

BlackPeter

12-08-2014, 11:57 AM

Um ... Take any of the top 10 countries (excluding NZ of course).

BP - you really should do just a tiny bit of research before posting. It would have taken about 5 minute and you'd not have posted that.

Belg, I know you like to offend - must be related to this "vote positive" campaign - yeah, right!

If you are however interested in a debate vs the cheap point scoring you now seem to start on this thread as well, than re-read my question. I know that there are lots of countries with much more complicated tax systems than NZ, and most of them feature as well a CGT. Can't however claim that I am aware of any country where the CGT improved the economic well being of its citizens.

So if you mean that I should have spent 5 min more on research - maybe you should have spent 30 seconds in reading my question?

Discl: I will vote positive - and avoid the mud slingers ....

Bjauck

12-08-2014, 01:11 PM

No taxation system is ever going to be perfect. And to expect a brand new one not to be flawed is shooting for the stars.

That it might be "flawed" isn't really a reason not to be in favour unless its very seriously flawed and one of "flaws" you mention, PEP exemptions, doesn't seem like a biggie to me and may actually be a good thing as it removes complexities. Exemption of the family home does seem like a flaw to me but I'm a purest.

As to the benefits ... click the little blue >> icon in the quote below ...

If you exempt the family home, I think the absence of an at least partially countering PEP becomes a greater flaw. The absence of a PEP would mean CGT taxation would provide a greater appeal in (over) capitalising in your family home...Simple is not always best and imo it would be better not to have CGT than to introduce a CGT along the lines of the proposed Labour Party scheme.

There are other more complex parts of NZ tax regulations such as the taxation of foreign equity income and financial arrangements. CGT with a PEP would be no more difficult to execute. After all we could draw on the experience of other jurisdictions for that, unlike with the "innovative" FIF and, to an extent, financial arrangements

Vaygor1

19-08-2014, 10:04 PM

What is going on in Australia? Is this normal?

I don't look at the Australian Markets at all often these days but is this the general daily look-&-feel of the All Ords top 10 Biggest Gains on any given day compared to NZX?
Screen captured after close of day trading 19-Aug-2014, both countries.

6154

Okebw

19-08-2014, 10:18 PM

What is going on in Australia? Is this normal?

Aussie has far more small/micro cap stocks than we do. Mostly small mining companies. So a .1 cent change in a company that's only worth .1 cent is a 100% rise. It's not often that you'll see anything worth more than a dollar on that list

Vaygor1

19-08-2014, 11:58 PM

Aussie has far more small/micro cap stocks than we do. Mostly small mining companies. So a .1 cent change in a company that's only worth .1 cent is a 100% rise. It's not often that you'll see anything worth more than a dollar on that list

Thanks Okebw. Much appreciated.
All I can say is the list is a complete waste of time to a) Generate and b) Read. :mellow:

Hoop

25-08-2014, 09:59 AM

The NZX50 uptrend has paused.
For budding TAers a trendless market can be a confusing time..A time when TA indicators whipsaw all over the place and adds fuel for the TA critics.
I tend to not use my favourite indicators when trendless situations arise..I rely on charting as seen below.

Not all indicators are too sensitive and become unreliable, some indicators can still be a guide and are useful such as Bollinger Bands (not shown on chart) which at this moment have wide boundaries outside the channel boundaries..and money flow indicators e.g OBV showing the money flow into and out of the NZX50..

The NZX50 stopped up trending nearly 4 months ago with negative investor vibes as some stocks within the NZX50 index are having severe corrections...so where is the NZX50 heading?
At the moment the answer is the NZX50 is going nowhere in particular and is surprisingly not far off its all time high....however there seems to be a very slight downtrend price channel pattern in play which suggests a sharper more defined trend will not present itself until this channel is broken to which more TA indicators become reliable again

Another method to pick which way the NZX50 is heading apart from using price channels is to look at which way the moving averages are moving....As seen on the chart below the EMA50 has in the last 2 weeks started falling which indicates the NZX50 is now in a medium term downtrend
The EMA200 shows the NZX50 is still in a long term uptrend...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5022082014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZX5022082014.png.html)

MAC

25-08-2014, 10:55 AM

It must be like trying to chart the election for all you TA's, who's polling ahead Hoop ?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/10418739/Investors-in-limbo-as-election-looms

Hoop

25-08-2014, 01:10 PM

It must be like trying to chart the election for all you TA's, who's polling ahead Hoop ?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/10418739/Investors-in-limbo-as-election-looms

If the NZX50 pause is a result showing investor caution towards the election then National win is not a sure bet...eh Mac?...

However there are tons of variables in play not just the election variable..although I would assume the election variable is becoming more of a major shorter term market focus as we near election day...The million $ question is how much election risk is already factored into the market..

It's hard to know but looking at these large yield rates with GEN MELCA MRP etc, I personally give it a guess that the power sector ( the sector which are in Labour/Green cross hairs) has already factored in a "reasonable" amount of election risk already.

Hoop, we have a very fast sinking dollar. Uptrend resumed in the short term?

Hard to know Moosie....TA wise, if the price jumps up above the price channel then there's a good chance we may see a new record high which resumes the uptrend....Theoretically one assumes NZ companies operating and/or exporting mostly outside NZ but values itself in NZ$ would fundamentally perform better...but in reality we are dictated by a market to buy/sell shares so it all comes down to amount of available money that market has on offer (demand)....Everyone knows by now (e.g QE) that markets perform well and trend up when there's easy money available....

I assume that the falling dollar shows investors are overall taking more money out of NZ than bringing it in...that is a negative current that the NZX50 has to swim harder against for it to reach new record highs (resumed up trend).
The other negative currents that come to mind are falling terms of trade (dairy) and the "perceived" anti-corporate mood and more business regulatory stance of the Opposition against National....

Media plays its part too by amplifying noise which disrupts signals and creates uncertainty (re election time)...... Investors hate uncertainty..

EDIT: A positive signal so far today.. the 5200 level is reached which could result in a price channel breakout at close:)

winner69

25-08-2014, 01:36 PM

Hoop, we have a very fast sinking dollar. Uptrend resumed in the short term?

Did you know Wheeler was going to get up and early and do some trading while the world was asleep?

He may have got lucky

Bjauck

27-08-2014, 09:03 AM

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-tops-2-000-044610310.html
Maybe Uncle Sam's pockets are bottomless after all.

Mista_Trix

28-08-2014, 10:18 AM

Anything interesting in here?
www.nbr.co.nz/article/tin-reveals-fastest-growing-tech-companies-2014-ck-161503

- anyone with NBR access willing to help :)

BlackPeter

29-08-2014, 05:45 PM

Hmm - business confidence continues to drop: House prices down, interest up, commodity prices down, first monthly trade deficit for 9 months. Maybe we didn't pay enough attention and missed the moment where the rock star economy peaked and fired on all two cylinders (dairy & ChCh rebuild)?

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-business-confidence-declines-6th-consecutive-month-august-bd-161652

All downhill from here - or just a brief opportunity to recover from all this growth before the next steep climb?

BlackPeter

29-08-2014, 06:01 PM

Anything interesting in here?
www.nbr.co.nz/article/tin-reveals-fastest-growing-tech-companies-2014-ck-161503

- anyone with NBR access willing to help :)

Why don't you check just http://www.tinetwork.co.nz/tin100/tin100-fast-growth-companies ?

It is better info and free access. Hard to understand why NBR paywalls their quite thin snippet on the TIN list.

However - from past experience - I question the value of the list anyway. I've seen in recent years companies under their top ten where the claimed growth on the list was based on very questionable (and quite old) data, and where (at list publishing time) the celebrated company was already ways downhill and preparing a sequence of redundancy rounds while TIN still celebrated them.

Not saying it is this year the case (I don't know), just saying the list is basically meaningless. Particularly when talking about private companies, the info in the list is more descriptive of the respective marketings managers hype, than of the real state of the company.

Hoop

31-08-2014, 06:05 PM

NZX50 Index has gone nowhere for 6 months now.

Meandering trendless index lines makes many TA indicators less reliable...

Interesting to see the 2007 support on the chart.....The NZX is ~22% ahead of October 2007.... when adjusted for inflation of 16.6% (RBNZ (http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary_policy/inflation_calculator/)) it doesn't leave much ..eh?

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5029082014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZX5029082014.png.html)

Hoop

01-09-2014, 10:31 AM

Big money is leaving for safer climates Hoop. Thunk is imminent.

Next dairy auctions tomorrow and 16th. Next OCR decision on 11th.
Yes all announcements will be keenly watched for trend directional hints..also.. I wonder how much money is leaving NZ to safer havens and how much effect it may be causing...there seems to be scant data on this...

National was earlier viewed as sleeping walking to victory but last week it stepped on dog poo so this will be an interesting new development.. in seeing how this extra factor plays out by the markets in the next couple of weeks

Billy Boy

01-09-2014, 10:55 AM

Quite right Hoop
A great way to make markets drop is to create uncertainty.
And there's a fair dose to that headed our way. From lots
of angles.
BB

noodles

08-09-2014, 10:57 PM

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/10881855/Revealed-The-worlds-cheapest-stock-markets.html

So we are expensive.

Goldstein

08-09-2014, 11:07 PM

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11318178

One wonders where the diary prices will stop ... Looks like NZ's "rock star economy" has been a one hit wonder.

This is tied quite a bit to what is going on with Russia. Demand is artificially drying up there due to trade restrictions. Looks like a world glut until the Ukranian stoush sorted.

MAC

21-09-2014, 10:47 AM

What’s a contender for benefit come Monday morning.

MEL, MRP, CEL, maybe NTL, CRP, CNU, Others ?

Okebw

21-09-2014, 10:51 AM

What’s a contender for benefit come Monday morning.

MEL, MRP, CEL, maybe NTL, CRP, CNU, Others ?

I'm going to say AIR and FPH. Possibly FBU

dingoNZ

21-09-2014, 10:59 AM

Gentailers, AIR, FSF and CNU spring to mind for me

hummerh40

21-09-2014, 11:00 AM

I think all NZX50 stocks will rise to some degree, some partly due to relief

Harvey Specter

21-09-2014, 02:12 PM

I think all NZX50 stocks will rise to some degree, some partly due to reliefAgree

Gentailers more than most.
Not sure about CNU. I though National threw them out to dry so interesting to see if they now backtrack.
Not sure of the effect on the dollar either (impacting FSF and FPH)
Negative for FBU. The rebuild is factored in, the left gave them an potential upside - if you have to build 100,000 homes, Fletchers would have played a large part.

couta1

21-09-2014, 02:33 PM

Expect a lift overall including retirement sector stock now we have certainty ,CNU is an interesting one as the Govt has basically told them they are on their own and there is still plenty ahead that could go against them but with Nationals current position they could give the ComCom a good kick in the guts if they wanted to with the bleeding hearts fringe groups left now with little power to stop them, will be an interesting watch.

Harvey Specter

21-09-2014, 02:51 PM

Expect a lift overall including retirement sector stock now we have certainty ,.is the uncertainty about the election or the two new entrants into the market (from a invt diversification perspective rather than a competitive perspective).

Major von Tempsky

21-09-2014, 02:54 PM

Yeah, good news for the NZSX50 - John Key and National won!

Beagle

21-09-2014, 03:12 PM

Gentailers and AIR:t_up:

blackcap

21-09-2014, 03:21 PM

Gentailers and AIR:t_up:

I do not actually think the market will move upwards that much tomorrow. A National victory will have been already priced into the market as the smart money only gave a 10% chance of a change in govt in the last 2 weeks before the election. So see some rises because uncertainty is gone and because National have a stronger mandate than before (and that was/is the unexpected part) but apart from that I think it is game on as per usual.

Beagle

21-09-2014, 03:37 PM

I do not actually think the market will move upwards that much tomorrow. A National victory will have been already priced into the market as the smart money only gave a 10% chance of a change in govt in the last 2 weeks before the election. So see some rises because uncertainty is gone and because National have a stronger mandate than before (and that was/is the unexpected part) but apart from that I think it is game on as per usual.

Market hates uncertainty mate and a little pre-election talk of an enquiry into AIR's regional airfares will hopefully turn out to be nothing more than just talk now that National are back in. John Key is a pragmatist and an intelligent businessman as well as having the Tourism portfolio and won't want to bring any untoward pressure on AIR that would affect their 53% shareholding. Agree that the odds of a multi-headed left alliance were slim but it's good to have a clear win and not be subject to weeks of Winston Peter's holding the country to ransom while he works to maximise his own personal agenda. Relief rally from over-sold position in AIR is quite a different and more enticing prospect to any further gains in the gentailers which are already up about 7% in the lead-up to the election.

That said I added to Genesis in the lead up to the election, people seem to have forgotten they beat the IPO forecast by 18% and are forecasting a 16 cps dividend fully imputed, (gross 22.22cps 11.7% yield) for 2015 and are still trading cum the final 2014 fully imputed 6.6 cps divvy :)

blackcap

21-09-2014, 03:43 PM

Market hates uncertainty mate and a little pre-election talk of an enquiry into AIR's regional airfares will hopefully turn out to be nothing more than just talk now that National are back in. John Key is a pragmatist and an intelligent businessman as well as having the Tourism portfolio and won't want to bring any untoward pressure on AIR that would affect their 53% shareholding. Agree that the odds of a multi-headed left alliance were slim but it's good to have a clear win and not be subject to weeks of Winston Peter's holding the country to ransom while he works to maximise his own personal agenda. Relief rally from over-sold position in AIR is quite a different and more enticing prospect to any further gains in the gentailers which are already up about 7% in the lead-up to the election.

That said I added to Genesis in the lead up to the election, people seem to have forgotten they beat the IPO forecast by 18% and are forecasting a 16 cps dividend fully imputed, (gross 22.22cps 11.7% yield) for 2015 and are still trading cum the final 2014 fully imputed 6.6 cps divvy :)

What you write makes sense Roger. By the way my comment was not aimed at you in particular if you were wondering. I clicked on reply with quote instead of reply and did not think much of it. But yep its the fact that uncertainty is gone that may help. But this is only one thing. Markets are fickle and if some other "shock" happens we could just as well fall tomorrow. Still think individual stocks (power co's) and others like you mentioned will benefit over the next years.

Beagle

21-09-2014, 03:52 PM

All good mate I love a good debate. With this clear win and low interest rates and bond yields I see little point in holding cash or bonds in the foreseeable future.

Huskeez

22-09-2014, 11:05 AM

NATIONAL! Back to new highs ???

Major von Tempsky

22-09-2014, 11:21 AM

Beagle

22-09-2014, 11:30 AM

Couple of things. Left are in complete disarray. John Key has indicated a propensity towards being keen on a fourth term and he's s smart man so may make some in-roads towards softening up Winston and / or the Greens for some accommodation next time. Six more years of political stability providing a stable business friendly environment for companies to grow ?

blackcap

22-09-2014, 11:32 AM

Up 65 , 1.3%, as at 11.20 this morning, Blackcap.

Exactly, not that much like I said yesterday. Its good but not really earth shattering. But over the next year or two, barring other factors the National led govt will do well for NZ.

couta1

22-09-2014, 11:48 AM

Exactly, not that much like I said yesterday. Its good but not really earth shattering. But over the next year or two, barring other factors the National led govt will do well for NZ.
The market started off in a sprint this morning but the competitors are realizing they are actually in a marathon race and have reduced pace to last the full distance, I'm starting to realize just how close market and sports psychology really are

OldRider

22-09-2014, 02:35 PM

With the ASX and NZX indices coming closer to each other by a little over 100 points so far today,
dare one wonder if the trend might continue such that the NZ50 grows to exceed the ASX 200.
Might NZ assume the mantle of the lucky country?

Hoop

30-09-2014, 12:39 AM

MAC

10-10-2014, 12:10 PM

And, there it is NZSX50 5226 > ASX200 5192

Beagle

10-10-2014, 12:17 PM

WOW a lot has changed in the last few weeks. Massive U.S. volatility, Europe tanking, China slowing, Germany slowing, Ebola spreading, Dairy prices continuing to fall off the edge of a cliff...its scary out there. I reckon it could be a case with the NZX or ASX of picking the least ugly sister, neither looks especially attractive at present. Cash is starting to look very good again.

bunter

10-10-2014, 12:55 PM

Cash is starting to look very good again.

So the trend is over?6317

mp52

10-10-2014, 01:14 PM

Or it isn't. Four weeks ago on this thread opinion favoured the market versus cash/bonds. The point is - no one really knows.

percy

10-10-2014, 01:25 PM

Well I looked up the chart and going from both 50day EMA and 200 day EMA the up trend is in tact.The RSI is positive too.

Hoop

10-10-2014, 02:08 PM

Well I looked up the chart and going from both 50day EMA and 200 day EMA the up trend is in tact.The RSI is positive too.

Yep ...our index is still trading near our record highs*** while the ASX is in its one month old correction is currently 9% down from its high point (well below its 2007 record high)

*** Hmmm shall we celebrate?? ..Hmmm a couple of storm clouds out there...my favourite DMA indicator have a bearish line crossover today :(

Ohh what the Hell lets celebrate:t_up:..and I mentioned on the All Ords thread this below

At Last!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...

Us Kiwi's celebrate ASX/NZX parity

As I write

NZX50 at 5209...ASX200 at 5195............:D:D

Onion

10-10-2014, 02:25 PM

And, there it is NZSX50 5226 > ASX200 5192

But as Brian Gaynor point out in the Herald (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11336711), the NZX50 is a gross index so you cannot compare directly with a capital index such as the ASX.

MAC

10-10-2014, 02:51 PM

But as Brian Gaynor point out in the Herald (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11336711), the NZX50 is a gross index so you cannot compare directly with a capital index such as the ASX.

Yes, it is really merely a point of long awaited idle occurrence, any reason for a beer is a good one, as they say.

Beagle

10-10-2014, 04:17 PM

So the trend is over?6317

Looks okay in the rear view mirror but the storm clouds on the horizon looking forward, not so good.

percy

10-10-2014, 04:40 PM

Looks okay in the rear view mirror but the storm clouds on the horizon looking forward, not so good.

May get "my fill" of Orion Health IPO.!!!!
Well positioned!!!! lol.

MAC

11-10-2014, 11:30 AM

Looks okay in the rear view mirror but the storm clouds on the horizon looking forward, not so good.

You should be more concerned in a bull market if it didn’t seem to many that there is trouble ahead, markets climb a wall of worry as they say after all.

Bull markets don’t end due to old age, they end when economies enter recession, in recent decades predicated by central bank tightening controls hitting the ceiling of their efficacy. That's a way off just yet.

winner69

22-11-2014, 09:59 AM

I did say 5500 before the end of the year

No more 5000 by Xmas predictions ..... maybe 6000 by Xmas is the new cry

Methinks we might just make that 6000 by Xmas ......this year

winner69

26-11-2014, 07:26 AM

Could all happen again

Look at those faces in the article ....distraught aren't they

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/63537517/From-a-million-in-a-month-to-broke

couta1

26-11-2014, 07:48 AM

Could all happen again

Look at those faces in the article ....distraught aren't they

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/63537517/From-a-million-in-a-month-to-broke
All the more reason to invest in companies that have a good chance of coming out the other side intact. Just sit on paper losses for a few years and she'll come right aye.

BFG

26-11-2014, 07:57 AM

Could all happen again

Look at those faces in the article ....distraught aren't they

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/63537517/From-a-million-in-a-month-to-broke

Nice article. Apt reminder that we are all only one day/trade away from eating a large dose of humble pie.

The equivalent today would be Aucklanders being "rich" based on new QVs, going out and remortgaging the house for a new boat/car/moose farm. This one line sums it up best:

"By this point he had assets worth more than $1m. But it was all just paper."

All just paper...

MAC

30-11-2014, 11:35 AM

BFG

30-11-2014, 01:27 PM

Would an NZ residential property valuation peak and reversal into a property market downturn trend, facilitate a rotation into a secular share market bull cycle through multiple PE expansion ?.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11366443

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=11366091

Interested in the view of others.

"Eleven city suburbs had capital value increases of more than 50 per cent. Residents in some suburbs are facing rates rises of more than 40 per cent."

Says it all really. A 40-50% return in 3 years on what should be a basic human right immune to over speculation is insanity at its best. This is totally unsustainable and sounds like the extreme leveraging a lot of Americans took just prior to the GFC. However, the insanity of the market can play out a lot longer than anyone can predict. Everyone was calling 1997 the top of the Dotcom Bubble (including Greenspan), and that was 2 years before things REALLY got insane! Hot money can only chase itself upwards for so long...

In saying that, I highly doubt a crash in real estate would result in an instantaneous rotation of said hot money into the stock market. Such a crash would have devestating effects upon residential/commercial/indudtrial property stocks, not to mention the book values of the likes of RYM, SUM etc. Last time a crash like that happened it too the entire market undrr with it. Combined with a huge reluance on the real estate market to keep chugging upwards, still dropping dairy price, rebuild slow down in coming years and a persistently high dollar I'm pretty sure NZ would be devestated on all fronts if the real estate market crashed tomorrow. Massive cash flows outwards to traditional safe havens like USD would only compound the problem.

Regarding the second article, that is just pure idiocy. Sure there are bad landlords out there, but I'm pretty sure there are more bad tenants! Besides, renting is massively cheaper than mortgaging to the hilt and "buying" a house right now, so I see them as doing me (I am still young and renting and not falling into the "Kiwi Dream" of being indebted for decades) a huge favour!

Disc - No money anywhere near NZ real estate market, either in stocks or Kiwisaver.

MAC

30-11-2014, 01:48 PM

There you go Moosie, something we can agree on,

Provided house hold debt as a percentage of income remains flat and sustainable, then residential property prices, government intervention aside, are likely to keep increasing, just because that’s where we Kiwi’s, appropriately or otherwise, put obsessively nearly all our free hard earned savings.

Although, one could argue that house hold debt did not substantially reduce during the bottom of the interest rate cycle, and thus from that plateau, rising interest rates over the next couple of years now could make all the difference.

6537
6536

BFG

30-11-2014, 04:37 PM

I don't think it is sustainable as house price annual increases by %age are much larger than annual wage increases by %age. The average house price to annual wage is over 7 to 1 in Aucland vs an average of 3-4 to 1. The cross over on servicing debt to interest rate %age back in 2000 is also a worry.

Fact is, Kiwis (or anyone else for that matter) don't get taught enough (or any) economics/financeby either their parents or school. The only investment most are taught to make is in housing, and that doing so with massive amounts of debt is fine because everyone else does it. This has been part of the key to the run up in costs way beyond what houses/land should be worth.

One key sign of over exuberance is the permiation of investment sectors into every day life. Aucklanders crashing the Council website after new QVs, the explosion of home building programs on TV and daily talk around the office/home of "paper profits" show how out of touch with reality prices have become and how innured we have all become with high prices as the "new normal".

I wouldn't call the top yet (no one truly can), but insanity like you posted earlier, rising interest rates here and worldwide, as well as global growth slow downs mean we can't be that far off.

BlackPeter

30-11-2014, 07:19 PM

Would an NZ residential property valuation peak and reversal into a property market downturn trend, facilitate a rotation into a secular share market bull cycle through multiple PE expansion ?.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11366443

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=11366091

Interested in the view of others.

Well - I guess if you think that the shed in Ponsonby was expensive, than try to buy a similar sized slice of land in London, LA, Singapore, Hong kong or any other large town with enough jobs and business around.

Obviously - the so called Kiwi dream of owning a wooden box (called house) surrounded by another slightly larger wooden box (fence) to keep the neighbours and the sun light away doesn't make things better. Property prices could drop (or at least slower rise) if people would be prepared to live instead in (well build) apartment blocks like about anywhere else in the world in high density areas. Much more sensible, economical and environmentally friendlier, but apparently not acceptable in the land of the long white cloud.

So, not sure, whether I expect property prices (in general) to peak and drop - they might rise slower if & when more people flee the land than come back (though it didn't work under the last Labour government - people voted with their feet, but property prices were still rising).

Property prices might crash if some big industries crash (like e.g. in Detroit during the GFC). Not sure, though, if I see a similar risk in NZ. Obviously - local catastrophes are always an option, but neither option should have a bullish impact on the stock market.

I still could see the current share market bull to keep running for a long time. However - this would not be caused by money moving from property to shares. Much more relevant for this would be in my view the expectation of low interest rates for a long time, resulting in the acceptance of higher PE ratios for shares. But this is a different story for another day.

bunter

15-01-2015, 11:37 PM

Harvey Specter

16-01-2015, 07:17 PM

Very sharp decline in 5 year term deposit rates shown here http://www.interest.co.nz/chart/investing/term-deposit-rates

Fell from 5.39% to 4.88% - in two weeks.

My valuation model adjusts for long term interest rates.
This drop increases valuations by approx 15%.with this flowing through into mortgage rates the rbnz will need to react. Will be interesting to see if that happens.

troyvdh

28-01-2015, 03:19 PM

I noted today that the NZ50 has gone gone up 2440 points in the last 3 years.
I only have a 3 year chart to look at.
Im sorry if has been discussed before but has that performance been replicated in the past.

I acknowledge that all fundamentals (% rates blah blah) indicate that the MKT "should perform well"...but gee my neck is beginning to hurt looking up at the likes of MRP and CEN.cheers

MAC

09-02-2015, 10:23 AM

BFG

09-02-2015, 10:31 AM

It may be more selective, large cap dividend stocks just seem to have become too inflated over the last 6 months from offshore inflows boosting the NZ50.

At some point, who knows when, could be 2-3 months ahead of an anticipation of US interest rate hikes, all those inflows which have trickled in under the radar may well leave again, and really quite quickly.

It may be more of a case of a large cap dividend shake out than an across the board correction.

I agree. As with the growth stock correction early in 2014 after overinflating, I suspect there will be a similar, selective correction here for divvy yield stocks. "Patience" has been removed from Fed minutes and interest rates will start going sooner than later...

bunter

09-02-2015, 11:04 AM

Does anybody feel like things are starting to get a little out of hand and we're perhaps due another correction?

Examples I hold;

1) CNU - Price now back at the same level as when it was paying a 10% dividend. Sure, uncertainty was factored in then, but to be back at that price already when uncertainty still looms is interesting IMHO.

2) HNZ - Great company and two bits of good news released recently. But look at the charts, the price has rocketed on mediocre volume.

Perhaps we're due another 15% shakedown?

I sometimes compare the 80's market with today's.

As I see it, the 80's was a 'pure' share mania, not driven by any underlying factors.
Everyone was talking about and buying shares and borrowing to do so.
That share prices went up, and by at least 20% a year, was a given.

To me the current market is different.

Interests rates are low, and most of the 60-odd shares I follow are showing projected returns (div plus capital change) at least three times long-term bank rates.
NZ company profits (real profits, not 80's style investment profits) are generally growing.

There are some overhyped shares, and IMO the tech sector - PEB, DIL, VML, XRO, etc - is today's equivalent of Chase, Equiticorp, Judge, Rainbow, Fleur etc.
But the tech sector doesn't dominate the market like the 80's 'investment companies' did.

There are some dodgy sectors too - retail's having a shakeout, and rest homes look overpriced.

But compared to money in the bank, most listed companies actually look pretty cheap, and I reckon this bull market has got at least two years to go.

Maybe a 2010's share mania will develop, but I don't think the lunch rooms (or social media chatter) are showing that yet.
It's only 1984, if you like.

Billy Boy

09-02-2015, 11:09 AM

BlackPeter

09-02-2015, 11:27 AM

A large interest rate hike will kill Europe and the Euro.
BB

Depends on your definition of "kill" - and if it kills anything, than not the European economy. The Euro zone is quite self-sustained (i.e. there are not too many imports they really really need to buy, if they get too dear). Only essential thing I see is oil (and this is currently quite cheap, i.e. even a say 50% reduction of the Euro (much more, than anybody would expect) wouldn't kill them - would just bring for them energy prices back to where they have been 6 months ago.

Yes, the Euro would drop and subsequently we would see
- Germany would drive up its anyway buoyant exports - making life more difficult for anybody competing (US, China, SE-Asia)
- less European tourists in non-european destinations (e.g. SE-Asian and NZ tourism might suffer)
- European agricultural products drop (outside Europe) in price - not a problem for Europe, but a problem for its overseas competitors (like NZ).

So - maybe you should reformulate - a big interest rise in the US would weaken the Euro, which would help the European economy and damage its overseas competitors and suppliers (like NZ - agriculture, tourism)?

percy

09-02-2015, 11:34 AM

I sometimes compare the 80's market with today's.

As I see it, the 80's was a 'pure' share mania, not driven by any underlying factors.
Everyone was talking about and buying shares and borrowing to do so.
That share prices went up, and by at least 20% a year, was a given.

To me the current market is different.

Interests rates are low, and most of the 60-odd shares I follow are showing projected returns (div plus capital change) at least three times long-term bank rates.
NZ company profits (real profits, not 80's style investment profits) are generally growing.

There are some overhyped shares, and IMO the tech sector - PEB, DIL, VML, XRO, etc - is today's equivalent of Chase, Equiticorp, Judge, Rainbow, Fleur etc.
But the tech sector doesn't dominate the market like the 80's 'investment companies' did.

There are some dodgy sectors too - retail's having a shakeout, and rest homes look overpriced.

But compared to money in the bank, most listed companies actually look pretty cheap, and I reckon this bull market has got at least two years to go.

Maybe a 2010's share mania will develop, but I don't think the lunch rooms (or social media chatter) are showing that yet.
It's only 1984, if you like.

Very much as I see the market too.
I do not hold any of the overhyped shares you mentioned.
The earnings season should provide evidence that some companies are performing well,and are not overvalued.
I also expect a lot will increase their dividends.

Billy Boy

09-02-2015, 11:44 AM

couta1

09-02-2015, 11:44 AM

Very much as I see the market too.
I do not hold any of the overhyped shares you mentioned.
The earnings season should provide evidence that some companies are performing well,and are not overvalued.
I also expect a lot will increase their dividends.
I didn't think you would agree with Bunter re retirement stock Percy? As far as the likes of Xro/Peb/Dil are concerned I don't believe they are overhyped like they were a year or so ago and some of us believe they are good buying at current prices.

MAC

09-02-2015, 11:48 AM

I agree. As with the growth stock correction early in 2014 after overinflating, I suspect there will be a similar, selective correction here for divvy yield stocks. "Patience" has been removed from Fed minutes and interest rates will start going sooner than later...

Yes, there seems to have been a kind of cyclical move last year from growth to yield.

When I look around at present for value it’s certainly not in dividend paying stocks any longer, cyclicals also remain fully or fairly valued, but some of the growth companies are looking well over corrected and really quite undervalued right now.

The offshore cash may flow out of yield stocks back to whence it came, local profit taking though may well flow back into growth I suspect.

In an otherwise fully valued market of cyclicals, investors may well be looking for intrinsic gains from growth rather than flat returns from cyclicals and perhaps falling returns in yield stocks.

skid

09-02-2015, 12:16 PM

If people get hit on their Divi stocks,imo they are not going to be in the mood to speculate on growth stocks.....unless they well and truly grow--faith is out the window ,for now,and even more so if theres a divi stock correction.

skid

09-02-2015, 12:17 PM

A rise in interest rates in the US is the final act in this bizarre experiment they have taken on--this is where ''the rubber meets the road'' so to speak

Bobdn

09-02-2015, 12:18 PM

Bjauck

09-02-2015, 01:34 PM

The NZ50 may be fully valued but that may not be true of SPK and CNU.

At the end of March 2012 CNU was at $3.69 and TEL (SPK) was at $2.44. Over about 3 years SPK sp has gone up about 43% and CNU has dropped about 23%.

Since March 2012 the NZ50 has risen about 65% (including dividends) so even SPK has underperformed the index. Three years ago SPK was still recovering from being the arch villain so despite being up 53% in a year does not necessarily mean that it is now over-valued. CNU on the other hand still faces regulatory uncertainty & vilification from other telcos and may still be undervalued on a long-term basis. Sentiment has been a big driver of SPK and CNU prices. DYOR.

Disc. LT holder of both SPK and CNU

bunter

09-02-2015, 02:16 PM

The NZ50 may be fully valued but that may not be true of SPK and CNU.
At the end of March 2012 CNU was at $3.69 and TEL (SPK) was at $2.44. Over about 3 years SPK sp has gone up about 43% and CNU has dropped about 23%.
Since March 2012 the NZ50 has risen about 65% (including dividends) so even SPK has underperformed the index.

Better allow for SPK's dividends - approx 42c after tax - and reinvestment in SPK.
So approx 65% return from SPK too since March 2012.

Or use the NZ50 capital index, which has gone up 45%. That's slightly unfair on SPK, which is a high dividend payer.

Bjauck

09-02-2015, 04:10 PM

Better allow for SPK's dividends - approx 42c after tax - and reinvestment in SPK.
So approx 65% return from SPK too since March 2012.

Or use the NZ50 capital index, which has gone up 45%. That's slightly unfair on SPK, which is a high dividend payer.
'
Thanks for that...in my head I had thought I thought I had made sufficient allowance for dividends when saying it was an underperformer! I guess the trap of using a gross index as the main benchmark when making a quick comparison. Even so, for SPK to be a market performer in that three year period, considering the comparative negativity surrounding the stock three years ago, would prima facie indicate to me that SPK is no more overvalued than other constituent stocks.

bunter

09-02-2015, 04:36 PM

'
Thanks for that...in my head I had thought I thought I had made sufficient allowance for dividends when saying it was an underperformer! I guess the trap of using a gross index as the main benchmark when making a quick comparison. Even so, for SPK to be a market performer in that three year period, considering the comparative negativity surrounding the stock three years ago, would prima facie indicate to me that SPK is no more overvalued than other constituent stocks.

FWIW I think Spark is about fairly valued now (system valuation 3.72), given a growth rate of 6% now.
Back in 2012 I had it at 3%.

I rate SPK's management and maybe they'll give shareholders reason to use a higher growth factor.

BlackPeter

09-02-2015, 05:34 PM

Black P
I dont altogether agree with you.
Many European Countries Are finding it hard to pay back debt now.
Greece !!!. Spain, Belgium, Italy etc.....
France is the interesting one.
If interest rates have to rise then they struggle more.
As i say .25 basic point rise wont hert too much , but more ?
We might have to agree to disagree old son
cheers BB:)
Rates are all based on the US$.

Hi BB, not sure I understand. Why do you think that a US interest hike would require European countries to pay higher interest? They only would if they hold their debts in US$ - but the lions share of European debts is obviously hold in Euro?

Billy Boy

09-02-2015, 09:57 PM

Hi BB, not sure I understand. Why do you think that a US interest hike would require European countries to pay higher interest? They only would if they hold their debts in US$ - but the lions share of European debts is obviously hold in Euro?
No not altogether
Hedging etc is based to the US$
Asian countries also hold a large amount of European Debt
Germany will have to hold out coz they have done a lot of vender lending since GFC and will want
their money back soon.
It would appear that most Euro Countries are trying to distance them selves from Greece coz
if Greece defaults, then Who knows. Greece owes 2.5 times GDP.
Argentina is still suffering the effects of their default.
Deflation in the Euro Zone must be turned surely. Will this latest massive QE kick start the
Euro zone economy ..... I doubt it.
The only way out as I see it (other than default) is huge forgiveness of debt across the board.
No point in Germany lifting their output (as you suggest) if the buyers are broke.
So back to the original Q. What will cause this Bull Market to turn...
A. When the Fed start lifting interest rates, And they will. IMO.
cheers BB

Billy Boy

09-02-2015, 10:12 PM

Sorry.....
Greece owes repayments that equate to 2.5 times GDP.
Don't ya hate it when ya start pushing 80 yrs

Bjauck

10-02-2015, 09:49 AM

...No point in Germany lifting their output (as you suggest) if the buyers are broke....

As I see it the Euro has meant that those countries like Greece with traditionally weak currencies have had a stronger currency by virtue (mainly) of being linked to German monetary (& indeed fiscal) prudence. It has meant that Greece (& Spain etc) have found that German manufactures are more affordable so German industry has benefited, as their Mediterranean customers were able to afford German produce bought in part by lower interest Euro borrowings, undertaken by fiscally imprudent governments.

Germany (& other Northern EU) benefited from these indebted Southerners so now they need to cut them slack, and then either cut them loose or introduce greater fiscal union.

Billy Boy

10-02-2015, 12:52 PM

As I see it the Euro has meant that those countries like Greece with traditionally weak currencies have had a stronger currency by virtue (mainly) of being linked to German monetary (& indeed fiscal) prudence. It has meant that Greece (& Spain etc) have found that German manufactures are more affordable so German industry has benefited, as their Mediterranean customers were able to afford German produce bought in part by lower interest Euro borrowings, undertaken by fiscally imprudent governments.

Germany (& other Northern EU) benefited from these indebted Southerners so now they need to cut them slack, and then either cut them loose or introduce greater fiscal union.

""t has meant that Greece (& Spain etc) have found that German manufactures are more affordable so German industry has benefited "...
Yep, bought about buy cheap money and Vender Lending. But now all thats gotta stop as the five year debt is falling due mid 2015. And the private lenders want their dosh , hence part of the story with the big ECB QE, so the heavely in debtors can "kick the can again"
Its all gotta stop. Greece .... we will see ??
To me things are worse than the present picture would suggest. Don't scare the horses
.
Thinking ahead on how the payback might happen.
1. Inflation over a long period ( but the Euro Zone is in deflation)
2. Debt forgiveness .... May beeeeee
3. Large sell off of assets (the rich lenders would love that)
4. large scale Civil unrest causing political turmoil ( They have got a little of that now !)
5. Minor wars !!!! (and we got a bit of that)
Readers might remember , The new monetary system being set up to run in opposition to the IMF.
China, Brazil, India, Russia, Korea, (South Africa , I think)
We have'nt heard much about that of late.
Oh well.... I will probably be out of the market(s) by June.
BB

gv1

10-02-2015, 01:18 PM

why june mate

Bjauck

10-02-2015, 01:21 PM

I agree. Insisting on payback and austerity can backfire. Just think of Versailles and Germany itself post 1919! Lessons too for NZ as our society becomes more unequal - discontent and possible social problems.

Billy Boy

10-02-2015, 02:00 PM

why june mate
Coz thats when a lotta bond money and hedging becomes due.
Brown stuff could get sprayed.
Also a lot of cycles indicate June, although I'm not a great believer in that stuff.
.
We can speculate all day but the bottom line is :-
Something has gotta happen sometime.
And it wont be pretty.
BB

Billy Boy

10-02-2015, 02:03 PM

Bjauck

10-02-2015, 03:12 PM

Coz thats when a lotta bond money and hedging becomes due.
Brown stuff could get sprayed.
Also a lot of cycles indicate June, although I'm not a great believer in that stuff.
.
We can speculate all day but the bottom line is :-
Something has gotta happen sometime.
And it wont be pretty.
BB

When I was in London...the mantra was "sell in May and go away!"

winner69

10-02-2015, 03:34 PM

When I was in London...the mantra was "sell in May and go away!"

Good chart in this article

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/chart-sell-in-may-and-go-away-2014-4

Might ea northern hemisphere thing .....maybe for NZ sell in October an go away ....summer holiday

Billy Boy

12-02-2015, 01:40 PM

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11400670
BB:(

Billy Boy

12-02-2015, 03:40 PM

"The Stoxx Europe 600 Index ended the day with a 0.2 per cent decline from the previous"

Pretty sure the cows are still producing milk Billy Boy, don't sweat it :)
:D...
It's not the Index's that,s making my cows dry up, it's the causes. !!?
BB :mellow:

MAC

16-02-2015, 01:13 PM

bunter

16-02-2015, 01:24 PM

Does anyone else have a sense that we have pretty much now seen the cyclical peak for the power company stocks ?

The forward yield play has been priced in, and there is, as CEN announced today, zero forward demand growth in the sector.

Going forward now over the next couple of years it may well be a matter of cyclical utilities coming and going with annual weather patterns. Although, any anticipated return of growth would be job ads for development engineers, I don’t think we will see that this year or next.

It’s all quite a large sector influence on the NZ50 with CEN, MRP, MELCA, GNE and TPW all being in the top 15 by market cap I think.

Bit of a power cut today.

All fully valued by my model except GNE.

But - FWIW - I think there might be hidden value in the new floats.
Private ownership and management might unlock this.

Plus these high quality assets probably deserve some sort of a premium.

Short term I'm holding for bonus shares and for possible capital return (MEL).
Will look to sell down MEL and MRP some time. Hold too many.

Value guesses:

GNE -3.71
MRP - 3.28
MEL 2.42 (when fully paid)

TPW - 8.64
CEN - 5.88 (revised down form 6.8 today after shock result)
VCT 3.45

Also IFT 3.86

MAC

16-02-2015, 01:52 PM

It begs the question too as to where cash from all the profit taking will now go to ?

BlackPeter

16-02-2015, 02:16 PM

It begs the question too as to where cash from all the profit taking will now go to ?

looks like plenty of interest in NZR .... :cool: but no, seriously ... I could imagine that some of the money is moving off-shore. AUD and EURO look quite affordable these days, and in both regions is it currently easier to find shares still worth their money (based on PE) than around here.

Bjauck

16-02-2015, 02:39 PM

Approximately in NZD terms since March 2014:

NZ50 (gross index) up 12.6%
FTSE100 up 11.2%
All Ords up 4.5%

bunter

16-02-2015, 03:41 PM

looks like plenty of interest in NZR .... :cool: but no, seriously..

Just wait!

MAC

16-02-2015, 05:03 PM

I think this may well be a symptom of the bubble in NZ yield stocks, perhaps when we see a tick up in US interest rates, 6 to 12 months of US yield hunting inflows into NZ dividend stocks may much more suddenly go back the other way ?

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1502/S00421/investors-give-raspberry-to-contact-offshore-investment-plan.htm

Hoop

19-02-2015, 10:38 AM

Some say that the business cycle is another name for the economic cycle...
OK guys...I've been watching the NZ reporting season and so far its been mediocre....Last year the media told me NZ was a "rockstar economy"...really??

blackcap

19-02-2015, 10:43 AM

Hoop

19-02-2015, 12:02 PM

STU and NPX today not bad though Hoop...

yeah true...and Meridian too...but its the largest listed companies that are stagnating within the so called "rock Star" booming economy which are the worry...SPK FBU CEN ...

Could be interesting exercise in applying Baa Baa's inverse theory here relating CEO salaries to company performance...eh?

Top 10 listed companies (NZX10) as of 11.30am

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/top%2010%20NZX%2019022015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/top%2010%20NZX%2019022015.png.html)

Billy Boy

10-04-2015, 01:53 PM

BlackPeter

11-04-2015, 08:09 AM

BlackPeter % others ......
FYI....
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/55253860dd0895d3338b456d-1200/image.jpg (https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/55253860dd0895d3338b456d-960/hsbc%20greece.png)

Note the amounts owed to the IMF !!!
cheers BB

Not sure, whether I understand your point. Yes, Greece entered the Euro zone under false pretense. Yes, they increased their wages and reduced their efficiency. The crowd (*) likes high wages and early retirement as long as they don't need to work hard for it. They like to shoot themselves into the foot by going regularly during the tourist season on strike - and as a country they seem to think that it is their birthright that other harder working countries pay their maintenance.

Seeing them to default and leaving the Euro-zone would be in my view the best thing which could happen to the world economy. Much better anyway than keeping to throw good money after bad as IMF and World bank did so far.

(*) Edit: just to clarify - I am here not talking about individual Greek people. I am sure there are in proportion as many honest and hard working Greek people around as there are Kiwis, Australians, Chinese, Germans or US Americans (or pick any other Nationality). However - for some reason did the majority of Greek people living in Greece choose to elect a system which does not favour discipline and hard work, but rewards laziness and sucking the life blood out of other nations. Why? Good question - I don't know the answer to that.

Billy Boy

11-04-2015, 11:37 AM

Not sure, whether I understand your point.
.
Back in the discussions ( too lazy to look) someone told this forum that Greece's
debt was all to the ECB. I thought is twas you, sorry if wrong. And I figured it would
be a good idea to make my above post.

BlackPeter

11-04-2015, 12:08 PM

.
Back in the discussions ( too lazy to look) someone told this forum that Greece's
debt was all to the ECB. I thought is twas you, sorry if wrong. And I figured it would
be a good idea to make my above post.

I remember that I stated at some stage that most of the Greek debt are in Euro, which actually is confirmed by your repayment schedule. Never said that they only owe money to the ECB ...

Bjauck

13-04-2015, 03:16 PM

... However - for some reason did the majority of Greek people living in Greece choose to elect a system which does not favour discipline and hard work, but rewards laziness and sucking the life blood out of other nations. Why? Good question - I don't know the answer to that.

Sucking the lifeblood out of other nations...are you referring to the use of the Euro and coat-tailing on the fiscal prudence of the Germans? Coz...the Germans and other creditor Northern Euro countries have been benefiting these past years from having Greece in the Euro. The Greeks racked up debts in part from the fact that Greeks were able to borrow money cheaply from belonging to the Euro ( a strong currency by virtue of the Germans, Dutch etc). With their cheap debt, in a non-depreciating currency, Greeks then bought German Mercedes and BMWs etc. So the German economy benefited from the Greek increased indebtedness held to a large part by German Banks.

If you want to throw around those sorts of expressions, just who sucked the life-blood out of whom?

macduffy

13-04-2015, 03:56 PM

Yes, there's two ways of looking at that particular problem. But it's never a good idea to lend money - euros, drachmae or whatever - to people who haven't the ability to repay it.

;)

Bjauck

13-04-2015, 06:16 PM

Yes, there's two ways of looking at that particular problem. But it's never a good idea to lend money - euros, drachmae or whatever - to people who haven't the ability to repay it.

;)

True...but loans by Northern countries to Greece helped bolster demand for Northern products so a proportion of loans ended up subsidising Northern EU industry - a sort of German government subsidy for German industry! With Private banks there have been some calculation of risk versus return. They must have made the loans with eyes open given the history of fiscal & monetary management in Greece. Anyway, previously the drachma was a depreciating currency (cf the DM) so any loans to Greece in the past would also have involved capital loss.

BlackPeter

13-04-2015, 06:18 PM

Sucking the lifeblood out of other nations...are you referring to the use of the Euro and coat-tailing on the fiscal prudence of the Germans? Coz...the Germans and other creditor Northern Euro countries have been benefiting these past years from having Greece in the Euro. The Greeks racked up debts in part from the fact that Greeks were able to borrow money cheaply from belonging to the Euro ( a strong currency by virtue of the Germans, Dutch etc). With their cheap debt, in a non-depreciating currency, Greeks then bought German Mercedes and BMWs etc. So the German economy benefited from the Greek increased indebtedness held to a large part by German Banks.

If you want to throw around those sorts of expressions, just who sucked the life-blood out of whom?

Agreed - there was undoubtedly some benefit for some of the middle European nations by having big spenders without fiscal discipline in their midst. I am sure, that some of the Greek debt paid for some German luxury cars as well as e.g. German (and potentially French) weapons.

It was as well a benefit for some of the mid european export nations (not just Germany) that thanks to the Greek (and some other financially ill-disciplined South (and West-) European nations they could export using a weaker currency than they otherwise would have (e.g. in the past the strong Deutsch Mark made it always difficult for the German export industry).

However - it is not good business to give loans to people who don't intend to pay back, even if they choose to use some of the credit to buy goods from you. The new Greek government is now for some time toying with the concept that any debt repayments by them are voluntary, and only if they really like the new terms they are trying to force onto the creditors ...

I find it difficult to find a more positive description for a people who used to "massage" their books in order to get entry into the Eurozone and be eligible for credit, for a people who don't refrain from blackmail to get more of the "free" money they are used to. Why do you think Greece is currently warming up the idea of a third gigantic war reparation settlement from Germany (equivalent to 1/10th of the German annual GDP) after having already received several full and final settlements? Sorry - as indicated earlier - I am sure there are as many honest and hard working Greek people as in any other nation, but the Greek nation itself deserves in my view no respect for their current behaviour at all. They are bludgers living of other nations hard work.

In my view - there is no honour left in a system and government like that - they just try to live as long as they can from other peoples money (well, until this money runs out). Actually - just re-reading the latest sentence it dawns to me ... this must be a socialist government they have in Greece these days - isn't it?

But if you don't like my "sucking other people's lifeblood" - just give me a better word describing their behaviour ...

Bjauck

13-04-2015, 07:41 PM

Fair call...Greece never fares well on corruption measures and the black economy in Mediterranean nations is large. It has been like that for yonks so the Dutch, Germans et al. must have been aware of that prior to joining with Greece in the Euro. Did their "grand European vision" make them turn a deliberately blind eye? So perhaps they willingly took the risk of making an offering to the fiscal vampires of Europe?

The new Greek government is left-wing...hence the latest crisis as they have "promised" not to implement austerity measurenments or honour repayment schedules. The Syriza government leans more to Moscow in its empathy. There are histrorical cultural and religious bonds between Greece and Russia anyway. I don't imagine that Putin will be shedding any tears for the EU in trouble.

Baa_Baa

13-04-2015, 09:09 PM

Imho, Greece get the money because they threaten to default, not because some ungraciously call them unproductive sloths, nor even whether they can repay. This threatens the Euro fiat currency experiment, of destroying in a cascade of relative productivity from weakest to strongest, the European nations house of cards, until one or none are left standing.

But it's not better in the USA, or South America, or northern Asia, or Oz, or or or, not even here in NZ or countless other sovereign nations. Where unprecedented escalating sovereign debt and printing treasury bonds to generate liquidity from equally indebted sovereign nations, has become the panacea for national and global fiscal liquidity and to heck with the end-game.

Should we worry? It's all that sloshy debt sourced capital that underpins sovereign nations ability to continue to invest heavily and constantly where wealth is ultimately accumulated perversely in banks that cannot lend enough of it out. And the fortunate few who accumulate enough capital to participate in wealth creating markets, albeit the wealth denominated in flawed fiat currencies underpinned with extraordinary sovereign debt. Lord help the indebted and the taxpayer who are propping all of this up, albeit unwittingly.

The second best evidence of impending fiscal calamity aside from monumental escalating sovereign debt is global sovereign competitive currency debasement, which is moving into full swing right now. And on the end of that whipping hose is NZ with it's soaring currency, for no good reason, certainly not an ability to foot it on the global fiscal stage. We don't have a QE machine working overtime, nor a balance sheet to create enduring increasing debt (bonds), nor the cash to manipulate our currency position, nor a surplus to pay our sovereign debt while meeting expenses, nor an economy productive enough to build sufficient surplus, nor an angel nation that we can fiscally threaten so that they float us for eternity.

The whole world is financially in a terrible mess, and we may be too. It would be great to see discussion about how that affects NZ and what if anything can be done about it, like if there is an immunity pill for NZ, where do we get it or how do we create it, and when do we take it so that NZ fiscally survives the next and inevitable global fiscal meltdown?

BAA

Bjauck

14-04-2015, 07:58 AM

We're all dooomed Captain Mainwaring!

percy

14-04-2015, 09:13 AM

We're all dooomed Captain Mainwaring!

We are "well positioned." Percy. lol.

BIRMANBOY

14-04-2015, 11:47 AM

Might I remind you lot the thread you have been crying into is named....NZSX50 ..GOOD NEWS!. ;)

BlackPeter

14-04-2015, 12:32 PM

Might I remind you lot the thread you have been crying into is named....NZSX50 ..GOOD NEWS!. ;)

Fair call - it is easy to get of topic when trying to respond to a comment. Still - you are right and I promise to stop whining on this thread!

Still wondering though whether it would be worthwhile to further investigate Baa-Baa's next crash scenario, but couldn't really find an appropriate place for it on sharetrader (given that this would be bigger than NZX, ASX, or any-other-X, but it is not really off-market either. Any proposals on what forum to establish a thread like "the next crash and how to prepare for it"?

BIRMANBOY

14-04-2015, 01:31 PM

if you change your avatar to an angel and your name to "WhitePeter" you may not need to. There seemed to be an inordinate number of conspiracy theorists, survivalists, bunker nuts and assorted "oh whoa is me's" on the Gold thread..however the only traffic there was going in circles, so dunno. How about a nice walk outside?:)
Fair call - it is easy to get of topic when trying to respond to a comment. Still - you are right and I promise to stop whining on this thread!

Still wondering though whether it would be worthwhile to further investigate Baa-Baa's next crash scenario, but couldn't really find an appropriate place for it on sharetrader (given that this would be bigger than NZX, ASX, or any-other-X, but it is not really off-market either. Any proposals on what forum to establish a thread like "the next crash and how to prepare for it"?

BlackPeter

14-04-2015, 03:10 PM

if you change your avatar to an angel and your name to "WhitePeter" you may not need to. There seemed to be an inordinate number of conspiracy theorists, survivalists, bunker nuts and assorted "oh whoa is me's" on the Gold thread..however the only traffic there was going in circles, so dunno. How about a nice walk outside?:)

LOL - I do love my avatar - and angels are so boring:bored: .... and as far as the next economic crash is concerned ... it is as sure to come as the tax man, death or the next NZ earth quake, the only question is when. Admittedly - the tax man is easier to predict;). Preparing for all of these is in my view not pessimism, just sensible precaution.
Having gone through the flurry of Canterbury earth quakes: Some people attached their shelves (already before the earthquake) against the wall .... are these the pessimists or just the more sensible people? See what I mean?

Baa_Baa

14-04-2015, 03:32 PM

It's easier to keep ones head in the sand and mock those who dare to raise that the world is not all fiscal peaches and cream, than have considered discussion on rationale responses to an inevitable downturn, for whatever reason it occurs. The 'Investment Strategies' might be better place for the discussion, I agree it is not well placed here.

if you change your avatar to an angel and your name to "WhitePeter" you may not need to. There seemed to be an inordinate number of conspiracy theorists, survivalists, bunker nuts and assorted "oh whoa is me's" on the Gold thread..however the only traffic there was going in circles, so dunno. How about a nice walk outside?:)

BIRMANBOY

14-04-2015, 03:44 PM

If you could actually accomplish anything or implement changes then I might bother being interested....until then...its all a waste of time. However by all means don't let me stop you.:sleep:
It's easier to keep ones head in the sand and mock those who dare to raise that the world is not all fiscal peaches and cream, than have considered discussion on rationale responses to an inevitable downturn, for whatever reason it occurs. The 'Investment Strategies' might be better place for the discussion, I agree it is not well placed here.

Onion

14-04-2015, 04:38 PM

The whole world is financially in a terrible mess

If that is so, why are stock markets around the world hitting all time highs?

winner69

14-04-2015, 04:52 PM

If that is so, why are stock markets around the world hitting all time highs?

Investors see/very little no risk at the moment .... worlds all honky dory and markets will keep going up

Baa_Baa

14-04-2015, 07:55 PM

Good point, though my suggestion to discuss it is not about changing the world, it's about what we, you or I do, as individuals (many with associated responsibilities and dependents), otherwise I agree it is a waste of time trying to change the macro economics. So few saw the previous fiscal liquidity/debt burdens relationship to the market crashes that came about I thought it might be helpful to point out that if anything, global liquidity underpinned by unsustainable and potentially un-repayable sovereign, business and personal debt, has increased umpteen-fold (since even the last crash) and so with it comes the greed and risk taking, which pre-cursors market failures. If we don't or won't consider that, or the personal consequences of ignorance, are we not neglecting our personal responsibility to protect our own meagre place in it?

If you could actually accomplish anything or implement changes then I might bother being interested....until then...its all a waste of time. However by all means don't let me stop you.:sleep:

BIRMANBOY

14-04-2015, 08:19 PM

Meagre are you?? Ok I am now channelling Yoda..so bear with me.... If you want to start a thread...how about
NON-Investment strategies, because that's what that leads to. It means you consider withdrawing from mainstream investing and focus instead on protecting what you have. Problem is of course where do you draw the line...banks fail..better withdraw funds and bury gold bars in the back garden, stock markets collapse so you better cash up and ...and....and...what...? Dwelling on and planning for unknown and possibly unlikely scenarios is all well and good if you know when and how. Either you have an optimistic outlook and believe that the basically intelligent animal that we are will find a way through the difficulties, (as we do and have been doing for centuries), or you start gnawing on your fingernails and start looking for the signs of imminent financial disaster. Up to the individual of course however if you feel strongly maybe start a new thread over in the Investment Strategies.
Good point, though my suggestion to discuss it is not about changing the world, it's about what we, you or I do, as individuals (many with associated responsibilities and dependents), otherwise I agree it is a waste of time trying to change the macro economics. So few saw the previous fiscal liquidity/debt burdens relationship to the market crashes that came about I thought it might be helpful to point out that if anything, global liquidity underpinned by unsustainable and potentially un-repayable sovereign, business and personal debt, has increased umpteen-fold (since even the last crash) and so with it comes the greed and risk taking, which pre-cursors market failures. If we don't or won't consider that, or the personal consequences of ignorance, are we not neglecting our personal responsibility to protect our own meagre place in it?

Baa_Baa

14-04-2015, 08:21 PM

It's about liquidity Onion, and what generates that money, and where it eventually ends up, because it has to go somewhere, so the stock markets are just one of the logical destinations.

The point though is by who, how and even is it possible, to repay the sovereign debts that underpin the liquidity, granted by the government and guaranteed by the tax payer, and what can you or I do about foreseeing this and protecting ourselves from the inevitable next rout?

As an aside, the trigger for the recent meltdown (but not the root cause of the problem) was pure greed, by previously respected financial institutions, who lent money beyond the ability of the debtor to repay, who then sold the loan books to the suckers who eventually realised they weren't going to be repaid. Then the house of cards came down and it rippled around the world, including NZ where the NZX dumped. Not quickly like '87, but fast enough to catch many out.

Today there is substantially, even inconceivably more global liquidity, underpinned by sovereign debt, sloshing around the world, including in NZ, making the haves feel happy, and the risk takers less worried and the greedy more emboldened.

The cycle continues. Are we even interested to consider whether it's a problem or whether we as individuals can do anything about it, like foreseeing it and preparing ourselves in advance?

BAA

If that is so, why are stock markets around the world hitting all time highs?

Baa_Baa

14-04-2015, 08:32 PM

Well yes, meagre in the scheme of things, but that's all I have, and it's worth protecting. I thought that given a conversation about Greece's problems, that maybe we could sheet it home to something a bit more real. I'll start a thread in the Investment Strategies and post copies of my recent comments. Last word here, cheers.

All the best.
BAA

Meagre are you?? Ok I am now channelling Yoda..so bear with me.... If you want to start a thread...how about
NON-Investment strategies, because that's what that leads to. It means you consider withdrawing from mainstream investing and focus instead on protecting what you have. Problem is of course where do you draw the line...banks fail..better withdraw funds and bury gold bars in the back garden, stock markets collapse so you better cash up and ...and....and...what...? Dwelling on and planning for unknown and possibly unlikely scenarios is all well and good if you know when and how. Either you have an optimistic outlook and believe that the basically intelligent animal that we are will find a way through the difficulties, (as we do and have been doing for centuries), or you start gnawing on your fingernails and start looking for the signs of imminent financial disaster. Up to the individual of course however if you feel strongly maybe start a new thread over in the Investment Strategies.

winner69

15-04-2015, 07:02 AM

An inverted yield curve is generally not good news, a bearish outlook toward the future direction of the economy.

Check out the latest swap rates ....yield curve looking ugly

Bugger

MAC

15-04-2015, 09:40 AM

A nice piece from Harbour this morning for the FA’s.

http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976502847/high-tide-sectoral-leadership-changing.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Wednesday+1 5+April+2015

It’s been an observation of mine for some time now that the forward NZ50 P/E is high, presently 18, due primarily to the demand in dividend paying stocks, not helped by the SOE and other infrastructure IPO’s coming to the market over the last year or so

“The New Zealand equity market now has a high percentage of defensive stocks – 43% of the index”

“The balance of the market is also trading at a small discount to average valuation multiples, estimated to be -2% relative to the last 5 years. However, for the cyclical and growth sectors EPS growth is expected to average 13.6% pa in the next three years”

I’ve little exposure to yield stocks now, they have run their course and IMO are overvalued, and the down side risk is greater than the up side potential, especially when a flood of cash may well exit from these stocks ahead of US interest rates starting to rise in either June or September.

NZX growth stocks on the other hand (and I don’t necessarily mean tech stocks) seem to me to be well undervalued in several cases, and I reckon we may well equally see a rotation from yield into growth also during the remainder of 2015.

Beagle

15-04-2015, 10:10 AM

Good article and interesting debate. I see U.S. retail sales disappointed and there's further talk of interest rate increases in the U.S. being delayed. With the ongoing problems surrounding Greece its hard on a global front to see any other scenario avoiding a catastrophe other than ultra low interest rates almost indefinitely.

Harbour talk about rotating into companies exhibiting strong growth such as F&P Healthcare and Mainfrieight as alternatives for REIT's and electricity sector stocks which are trading as bond proxies. Lets unpack that a bit. MFT have enjoyed 14% average growth in EPS for the last five years but recently their updated guidance significantly disappointed the market and growth looks like being in the mid single digit range...strong growth really ? F&P Healthcare are very, very expensive on a forward PE basis and growth needs to continue almost indefinitly at low double digit rates to support that valuation.

Harbour seem to imply ongoing medium term EPS growth of 13-14% per annum is attainable, hmmm, maybe ?

I agree the market per se is expensive not helped by some of our largest companies with modest growth prospects trading on very high multiples, e.g. AIA, POT, RYM, FPH. however in an uncertain world with subdued economic growth and ultra low interest rates for as far as the eye can see, whilst its easy to make the case that stocks such as GNE, GMT HLG PGW, all of which I own may have limited upside potential I think investors can take comfort from a basket of stocks like this offering circa 10% gross yields.

If global interest rates do eventually rise a little, so what ?...you're still going to get 10% gross yields whereas on the other hand if stocks like Harbour are suggesting don't meet their growth aspirations...oh dear ! Factor in a perhaps meaningful contraction in the PE attributable from lower growth if their blue chip growth record doesn't continue, along with a possible general contraction in market PE if interest rates rise materially and you have the recipe for tears.

In a fragile global economy still reeling from the ongoing effects of the GFC and with little prospect of meaningful interest rate increases I continue to favour defensive yield based investments for the medium term. Maybe I should change my user name to conservative bean counter :)