NZSX50 - Good News!

[peat]

wall st hammer time , wonder if nzx will be hammered today as well .... not that good a report season so far

that SP500 hourly hammer is bullish tho.

[bull....]

definitely a bullish hammer in nz , thx to atm

[Leftfield]

definitely a bullish hammer in nz , thx to atm

THL tomorrow......icing on the cake!??

[bull....]

THL tomorrow......icing on the cake!??

wont have the same effect on the index as atm , atm had huge effect on nzx50 rise yesterday masked the weakness in many stocks .... anyway wall st just reversed a 300 pt gain and bonds are on the verge off big spike possibly from channel breakout

[bull....]

breaking out from the inverted head an shoulders on the daily looks like a target of 8800 pretty quick if wall st behaves

[bull....]

looks like wall st is not behaving lol

[winner69]

looks like wall st is not behaving lol

Volume building quite a lot as day draws to close ...is that good?

[bull....]

Volume building quite a lot as day draws to close ...is that good?

volumes was light for the day , the last hour was heavy because it broke down thru technical levels ,

i was short all night luckily hopefully cover some stock losses today

anyway all the us indexes are acting slightly different to a degree which could be a positive but could easliy change

[couta1]

looks like wall st is not behaving lol HaHa, except the only overseas stock I own(Geron Corp) listed on the NASDAQ is behaving very well, check it out. PS-I bought it at $1.85 US in November.

[bull....]

HaHa, except the only overseas stock I own(Geron Corp) listed on the NASDAQ is behaving very well, check it out. PS-I bought it at $1.85 US in November.

nice one , always stocks that buck the trend eg atm and a few others on the nzx as well

[whatsup]

HaHa, except the only overseas stock I own(Geron Corp) listed on the NASDAQ is behaving very well, check it out. PS-I bought it at $1.85 US in November.

Impressive up 7% today on a disaster of a day in the U S , bio tech as well whats cooking please?

[RupertBear]

HaHa, except the only overseas stock I own(Geron Corp) listed on the NASDAQ is behaving very well, check it out. PS-I bought it at $1.85 US in November.

WOW thats an impressive rise! :eek2: Well done getting in early on that one Couta. I am hoping for a similar rise in HMS SLI one day! :lol: Wouldnt mind some of those Geron Corp but dont even know how to buy them! :confused:

[couta1]

Impressive up 7% today on a disaster of a day in the U S , bio tech as well whats cooking please? Huge takeover target plus big short squeeze going on.

[Dust]

Try selling it and withdrawing your money mate. Just saying their are a LOT of overseas boiler room operations cold calling N.Z. people, (and they're not approved by the FMA to offer financials services or advice here) and promising all sorts of things. You haven't made a cent until you can prove you can withdraw that money at which point you might yet find you've lost the lot.

How do you know that? He hasn't even said which broker he bought the US name with.

[Valuegrowth]

Today is very good news for NZSX50.Trade war didn’t affect much here. It is standing out from other markets such as Europe, the USA, Japan, Hong Kong, China and Australia.

Trade war could bring winners as well as losers.

Some of the possible losers are Aussie & loonie, Japanese stocks, cyclical stocks and commodities like oil.

Consumer staples, banks, and health care could do relatively well. In situation like this there could be emerging regional winners.

[Baa_Baa]

Today is very good news for NZSX50.Trade war didn’t affect much here. It is standing out from other markets such as Europe, the USA, Japan, Hong Kong, China and Australia.

Trade war could bring winners as well as losers.

Some of the possible losers are Aussie & loonie, Japanese stocks, cyclical stocks and commodities like oil.

Consumer staples, banks, and health care could do relatively well. In situation like this there could be emerging regional winners.

Might need to rethink that? Correct me if I'm wrong, re US trade tariffs on China (trade war?), aluminium and steel tariffs are:

- Aussie - exempt
- Canada - exempt
- other 'friends of America' - exempt
- New Zealand - oops, not exempt. (not a friend or just over looked?)

A lot of water still to go under the bridge with this. Only 85 points down on NZX today.

[Valuegrowth]

Thank you Baa Baa for the information. It seems China is targeting farm belt. This situation could benefit some companies in New Zealand and Australia. However, it is too early for me get some clear ideas. I would like to do some study. In every situation, there are winners as well as losers. Smart and innovative managers will expand their market share for their products from this trade war.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-23/-very-awkward-spot-in-u-s-china-firing-line-for-aussie-economy

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/us-politics/donald-trump-announces-60bn-of-new-tariffs-on-beijing/news-story/02361c8a615305786c24b771798fd5e0

Australia to get import quotas, tariff exemption ‘only temporary’

[winner69]

The volatility of volatility is getting more volatile by the day in the US I read somewhere

[bull....]

wall st hammered last 2 hrs , how long can nz buck the trend ?

[winner69]

wall st hammered last 2 hrs , how long can nz buck the trend ?

Selling momentum last couple hours last day or so a bit of a worry

[bull....]

think i mentioned on the black monday thread we would test the flash lows again, anyway technically looks very weak at the moment having broken down from a technical pattern. my target if it works out ( being the the big if ) is still about 2000 pts lower matchs up with a fib 50% retracement as well ... see what happens.

guess the nzx probably hit new highs soon lol atm the sole determinant at the moment of the nzx fortunes bound to go to $20 lol or will the trade war disrupt a2 fortunes or improve them ?

[Beagle]

I see the so called trade war as something mainly U.S. and China centric.
I see very little impact on ATM's, SML sales or margins, no impact on needs based companies like SUM, OCA and very little impact on good retailers like HLG and obviously no impact on gentailiers like GNE and little impact on REIT's like ARG. Disc: Own a stake in all those companies.
Good companies on the NZX are at least as good a place to hide as anywhere else in the world in my opinion.
There could be some impact on companies like Colonial Motors and Turners if business pessimism sinks to even lower level's and I note that the U.S. vehicle manufacturers as a group are down 16% year to date. (I don't own either of these two companies)

[Valuegrowth]

Sell-off, short term spikes and volatility could become new normal as there are short terms speculative positions in global stock, commodity and bit coin markets. Bull markets should follow bear markets. As I expected overvalued markets are having much needed correction these days. In situation like this we could see new winners in global markets.

[couta1]

wall st hammered last 2 hrs , how long can nz buck the trend ? Geron Corp up another 7% today repeating yesterday, Trump having no effect on the stock, thought you might have bought some bull? NZX will probably go down another 1% or less on Monday I reckon.

[bull....]

Geron Corp up another 7% today repeating yesterday, Trump having no effect on the stock, thought you might have bought some bull? NZX will probably go down another 1% or less on Monday I reckon.

end of jan was the amber light for me so i dont own any us stocks at the moment , only 1 aussie stock and 4 nz stocks been sitting on piles of cash waiting for the bargains to come and everything seems to playing out accordingly.

[couta1]

Well, I called the drop today right at 1% down for the NZX, US futures in the green so expecting a bounce overnight, let's see.

[bull....]

nice bounce of the 200d on wall st , see what happens on nzx today

[BlackPeter]

nice bounce of the 200d on wall st , see what happens on nzx today

Well, shares have been yesterday on special :t_up:. Suppose the sale is over.

[percy]

Well, shares have been yesterday on special :t_up:. Suppose the sale is over.

Good fun.
Yesterday I was thinking of cancelling a buy order,that had not been filled for sometime.
Just as well I didn't, as I had it filled yesterday...lol.

[Beagle]

nice bounce of the 200d on wall st , see what happens on nzx today

According to one or two experts on CNBC this morning with the recent market selloff and with strong earnings growth expected this year off the back of the big corporate tax cut the S&P 500 is now trading at just 17 times forward earnings.

If China and America can sort out their trade differences and barring any major other exogenous shock, (although I still expect vastly higher volatility than last year), I am wondering if there isn't slightly better and smoother market conditions ahead.

[bull....]

According to one or two experts on CNBC this morning with the recent market selloff and with strong earnings growth expected this year off the back of the big corporate tax cut the S&P 500 is now trading at just 17 times forward earnings.

If China and America can sort out their trade differences and barring any major other exogenous shock, (although I still expect vastly higher volatility than last year), I am wondering if there isn't slightly better and smoother market conditions ahead.

yes i saw that clip too and i totally agree so if everything panned out nicely without any external shocks my guesstimate of 30000 is still on my mind which equates roughly to the 3000 s&p 500 target many wall st analysts have for end of 2018. guess it doesnt mean cant have a correction on the way .. a , trend still looks up to me.

actally wall st had a nice bounce of multiple supports last night made for good buying if you think it may rally into end of quarter?

[Beagle]

Could have a stronger close for the quarter for the US markets...its certainly been a tough one so far. Dow futures currently just over 100 points north, maybe a good sign for another strong session on U.S. markets tonight ?

[winner69]

Bull me old mate ....what happened in the US this morning ....down heaps

I still reckon the discussions of a month or so ago about market going into decline are still relevant even though most seem to be fully loaded up again.

We may have moved from that ‘trend following a new ‘mean reversion regime’.

Watch PE ratios contract over the next year or so ...even great stocks not immune

NZ also exposed to the divergence of US and NZ interest rates. Our RBNZ playing a dangerous game keeping our rates down this year ....when they realise inflation is here there will be a series of rate hikes ...ouch

[bull....]

yup yuk they call it turn around tuesday

we still in the intermediate uptrend since 2016 so until that breaks have to maintain the bullish case for me , everyone else can decide there own circumstances lol

anyway i think i mentioned on a previous page here im sitting on piles cash as i expected this correction , weather it turns into anything else time will tell.

[Beagle]

Facebook, Twitter and Tesla to name just three have issues for sure and are dragging the market down with them.
I am also sitting on a fair proportion of cash / short term deposits and in no hurry to deploy it.

[winner69]

NZ50 Capital Index gone nowhere this year ...maybe even down a bit

[bull....]

NZ50 Capital Index gone nowhere this year ...maybe even down a bit

does that mean we need to catch up with everyone else?

[BobbyMorocco]

I'm of the thought that we may be turning the corner into something else - at least here in NZ where extreme selectivity is being shown with only a few stocks causing the index to reach new highs. ATM, obviously being the main one. I wasn't investing when other Bull markets reached their peaks but from what I have read extreme selectivity is one of the main indicators that the tide is about to turn.

I have some figures from the most recent market peak on the NZX50, which occurred on 21/3/18. These figures suggest that things may not continue to go up for much longer.

- Only four out of the 50 constituents closed at their 52 week highs on that day. Supposedly less than 10% is not a good sign as this shows that not many stocks are contributing to the rally.

- Only 14% of stocks closed at or within 2% of their 52 week highs on that day. This is down from 38% on the Jan 5 NZX50 peak. Supposedly 30-50% is considered healthy in a bull market. Again 14% is showing extreme selectivity in stocks that are participating in the rally.

- The percentage of stocks above their 200EMA was 52%. This is down from 76% on the Jan 5 NZX50 peak. In a healthy bull market this figure would be 75-90% and they say that when this figure declines to 60% or less it's likely that we are very late in the bull market cycle and the tide could be about to turn.

They also say that weakness hits small caps first, followed by mid caps and then lastly the large caps.

Year to date returns on the NZX indexes are as follows.

- Small cap index down 1.39%
- Mid cap index down 2.73%
- NZX50 up 0.28%
- NZX20 up 0.81%
- NZX15 up 1.59%
- NZX10 up 2.88%

This goes to show the influence that ATM is having on the overall market. Without ATM the NZX50 would most certainly be down for the year.

All of this make me reasonably bearish on the overall NZ market at present, although a selected few stocks may continue with their rises for a while longer yet.

It would be nice to get posters like Hoop who used to line up his/her ducks and that would help give what seemed to be a fairly reliable indication as to whether the market was going to go up or down. If anybody knows Hoop can you please ask that they come back and share their thoughts???

Disc: I have more money out of the market than in the market and because I'm bearish at present I'm not really looking to add positions. DYOR. My numbers could be slightly off and may or may not be relevant. Time will tell.

[value_investor]

I'm of the thought that we may be turning the corner into something else - at least here in NZ where extreme selectivity is being shown with only a few stocks causing the index to reach new highs. ATM, obviously being the main one. I wasn't investing when other Bull markets reached their peaks but from what I have read extreme selectivity is one of the main indicators that the tide is about to turn.

I have some figures from the most recent market peak on the NZX50, which occurred on 21/3/18. These figures suggest that things may not continue to go up for much longer.

- Only four out of the 50 constituents closed at their 52 week highs on that day. Supposedly less than 10% is not a good sign as this shows that not many stocks are contributing to the rally.

- Only 14% of stocks closed at or within 2% of their 52 week highs on that day. This is down from 38% on the Jan 5 NZX50 peak. Supposedly 30-50% is considered healthy in a bull market. Again 14% is showing extreme selectivity in stocks that are participating in the rally.

- The percentage of stocks above their 200EMA was 52%. This is down from 76% on the Jan 5 NZX50 peak. In a healthy bull market this figure would be 75-90% and they say that when this figure declines to 60% or less it's likely that we are very late in the bull market cycle and the tide could be about to turn.

They also say that weakness hits small caps first, followed by mid caps and then lastly the large caps.

Year to date returns on the NZX indexes are as follows.

- Small cap index down 1.39%
- Mid cap index down 2.73%
- NZX50 up 0.28%
- NZX20 up 0.81%
- NZX15 up 1.59%
- NZX10 up 2.88%

This goes to show the influence that ATM is having on the overall market. Without ATM the NZX50 would most certainly be down for the year.

All of this make me reasonably bearish on the overall NZ market at present, although a selected few stocks may continue with their rises for a while longer yet.

It would be nice to get posters like Hoop who used to line up his/her ducks and that would help give what seemed to be a fairly reliable indication as to whether the market was going to go up or down. If anybody knows Hoop can you please ask that they come back and share their thoughts???

Disc: I have more money out of the market than in the market and because I'm bearish at present I'm not really looking to add positions. DYOR. My numbers could be slightly off and may or may not be relevant. Time will tell.

Great post, similarly I have been very selective over the past 6 months over stock selection and accumulated some cash because frankly its hard to find anything worth putting money into. SUM is probably the last one that I have confidently. Granted there are quality companies out there, just the valuation for me throws me off too quickly.

I've said something similar not just specifically but the fact that the NZX50 is skewed due to its small size and limited range of companies and a few shares that have out performed to bring in some crazy results. In a way, few stocks have done the heavy lifting for the entire index.

On the flipside however, there are a number of shares in the past 12 months that have posted more than 30% gains to name a few AIR/FPH/RBD/SUM. I do agree that going forward we'll see a lot less of this going on but it has been an amazing time to be in the market.

And again, we'd be much more overheated from a NZX50 scope if shares such as FBU weren't such a stinker, add in SKT to that as well and we'd probably be at a 9000 level.

[BlackPeter]

Actually - good to hear (not just on this thread) that people starting to accumulate cash. Many of the really big crashes in the past have been made much worse because everybody was "in" and therefore not able to benefit (no cash left) from any of the "specials" offered by the early down movements.

If people are wiser this time, than we might have a chance not just for lesser peaks but as well for a softer downturn after the peak without that much "under swing". This is good news :t_up:

Obviously - working against this theory are the huge amounts of index linked ETF's which are this time in circulation, but this is a subject for the other thread ... ;);

All good :).

[Valuegrowth]

Active manages relies on selecting individual investments, like single stocks, should do well in the remaining months of this year in NZ as stock prices have extended. Not all Asian Pacific region markets will equally perform.New winners could emerge in 2018. Yesterday’s losers could become tomorrow’s winners and today’s winners will become tomorrow’s losers. Funds exposure to overlooked frontier and emerging nations with attractive valuations could do well especially if they target winning investment and markets.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180328005671/en/Russell-Investments%E2%80%99-2018-Global-Market-Outlook-%E2%80%93

[Beagle]

I'm of the thought that we may be turning the corner into something else - at least here in NZ where extreme selectivity is being shown with only a few stocks causing the index to reach new highs. ATM, obviously being the main one. I wasn't investing when other Bull markets reached their peaks but from what I have read extreme selectivity is one of the main indicators that the tide is about to turn.

I have some figures from the most recent market peak on the NZX50, which occurred on 21/3/18. These figures suggest that things may not continue to go up for much longer.

- Only four out of the 50 constituents closed at their 52 week highs on that day. Supposedly less than 10% is not a good sign as this shows that not many stocks are contributing to the rally.

- Only 14% of stocks closed at or within 2% of their 52 week highs on that day. This is down from 38% on the Jan 5 NZX50 peak. Supposedly 30-50% is considered healthy in a bull market. Again 14% is showing extreme selectivity in stocks that are participating in the rally.

- The percentage of stocks above their 200EMA was 52%. This is down from 76% on the Jan 5 NZX50 peak. In a healthy bull market this figure would be 75-90% and they say that when this figure declines to 60% or less it's likely that we are very late in the bull market cycle and the tide could be about to turn.

They also say that weakness hits small caps first, followed by mid caps and then lastly the large caps.

Year to date returns on the NZX indexes are as follows.

- Small cap index down 1.39%
- Mid cap index down 2.73%
- NZX50 up 0.28%
- NZX20 up 0.81%
- NZX15 up 1.59%
- NZX10 up 2.88%

This goes to show the influence that ATM is having on the overall market. Without ATM the NZX50 would most certainly be down for the year.

All of this make me reasonably bearish on the overall NZ market at present, although a selected few stocks may continue with their rises for a while longer yet.

It would be nice to get posters like Hoop who used to line up his/her ducks and that would help give what seemed to be a fairly reliable indication as to whether the market was going to go up or down. If anybody knows Hoop can you please ask that they come back and share their thoughts???

Disc: I have more money out of the market than in the market and because I'm bearish at present I'm not really looking to add positions. DYOR. My numbers could be slightly off and may or may not be relevant. Time will tell.

Very good post. Many of the European markets have had a tough quarter, down on average mid single figure percentage, and the U.S. indices are down slightly with the exception of the Nasdaq which is up very slightly. The really exceptional volatility this quarter has been disturbing to say the least and not least because it coincides roughly with the nine year anniversary of the bull markets inception widely accepted to start in March 2009 with the S&P 500 in the mid 600 range.

The extremely wild volatility is a classic early warning sign of the death of a bull market, bulls throw their heads and horns around wildly before dying, juts like bull markets do.
That said predicting the future is a VERY inexact science and the forward PE for the S&P 500 as noted in my post earlier this week is widely regarded as just 17 aided in no small way by the massive corporate tax cut this year.

So what to do....

Sitting on all cash is expensive in as much as there's plenty of utility type stocks on the NZX that will give you around three times the yield that you'd get on a Heartland Call account at 2.75%. Apart from that even in a bear market often you will find that really good stocks still go up.
All cash only works if the entire market goes down which is pretty rare.

So what am I doing ?

1. Because nobody can predict the market with exact timing and accuracy I'm having a bob each way on this market with just over 50% cash now in my portfolio.
2. Of the shares I'm holding they're predominantly high conviction stocks in an uptrend, SUM, HLG, ATM, (more on that shortly) and defensive positions like REIT ARG, (estimated to be trading at a ~ 10% discount to NTA which will be revalued shortly at an estimated $1.10, currently around $1.06), needs based business's like OCA and gentailer GNE for yield plus a modest position in AIR for yield and because people are likely to continue to travel because its so cheap and the PE is only 9.

What's my strategy if the market starts to turn against thy shares I'm holding ?

1. I'm not married to any of them, leave my pride and emotional attachments at the office door each morning.
2. If there's a breech of the 30 day MA of any stock I am holding in an uptrend including favored stocks like HLG and SUM I'll immediately sell one third. If the shares are still below the 30 day MA three working days later I'll sell more to reduce to half my original position. If within 3 working days it recovers up through the 30 day MA I'll buy back the third I sold.
3. 100 day MA. A breech of that indicator will see me sell my remaining half. ATM breeched the 30 day MA this week so I sold a third late this week. I'll follow the above pre determined path with the rest and the same TA indicators and actions with other high conviction positions in HLG and SUM.

If the market tide starts going out savagely, I will not try and swim against it.

More moderate conviction positions such as GNE, ARG, OCA, AIR, I'll run a 15% stop loss on.

Why am I taking a fairly defensive position ?

The situation with the Nasdaq in particular worries me. I see a day of reckoning coming and feel many of these companies like Tesla trading without earnings and burning vast sums of capital each quarter and failing to deliver on promised production targets are ripe for a MAJOR correction. There's also significant regulatory risk around some of the other FANG stocks many of whom are trading on no earnings or stratospheric multiples. Remember that the NASDAQ lost 90% of its value in the last tech wreck of 2000- 2001 and keep in mind that technology stocks compromise a huge 25% of the S&P 500 index.

Summing up in three words "I'm very cautious" at this point. I hope I'm wrong and the market settles down next quarter but one should be prepared for really serious volatility ahead.

[percy]

Very hard trying to be concerned.
My govt super has been increased,.Monday's payment already in my bank tonight.
Next week HBL's fat divie,which will be added to by a very fat divie from MEL .
Not to be left out HLG and TRA have both increased their divies.
Then in May NZM get in on the act.
Could be said I will be rolling in it,just by buying companies that have the capacity to,and are paying increasing divies..
However, I have sold a lot of my small cap Aussie holdings,using the funds to add to my MEL and TRA holdings.

[greater fool]

Try this book to revise on the state of America in 1968.

1968. The Year that Rocked the World.
Author Mark Kurlansky. Published 2005. ISBN 0 09 942962 4

"It was the year of sex and drugs and Rock & roll; it was also the year of the Martin Luther King and
Bobby Kennedy assignations, the Prague Spring, the Chicago DNC Convention, the Tet offensive in
Vietnam and the anti-war movement, the student rebellion that paralysed France, civil rights, the
beginning of the end for the Soviet Union, and the birth of the women's movement."
-Publisher back cover notes.


winner69 said this was the best book ever, so I had a read...........

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11586-Recommended-Read&p=843559&viewfull=1#post843559

Entertaining read and an interesting theory. Thought I'd have fun with the content.

Published in 1997, it seems it could have been written for today.
A few excerpts from the book.

Here's how it starts, a description that could easily be written now -Page 1,
11935

On (this part of) page 51 the book predicts 2005~2020 for a crisis in America.

11936


Part of Page 105...................

11937

The crisis will require an event, or a combination of events to trigger.
Pages 272 ~ 273 offer some speculative trigger events..................

11938

11939

Working through those to see how close their predictions were.

First: Fiscal Crisis.
2007-2008 we had the GFC. Close but not quite enough to push America over the edge at the time,
Banks 'too big to fail" -but the Fed is still in resolution mode.

Second: Terrorist Act.
911 Twin Towers. Afghanistan is scapegoated and subjected to America's lust for gratuitous violence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Osama_bin_Laden#Compound_residents
World wide restrictions on air travel still in place.

Third: Federal Budget, government shut down.
There have been several short term government shut downs over debt limits. Pandemic rescue plan stalled in Washington;
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/04/real-reason-next-pandemic-rescue-package-is-stalled/

Fourth: Pandemic.
Covid19. The trigger that starts the conflagration? Protests, riots, militia and security forces in streets across the country.
It's entirely China's problem that America cannot control the virus. Totally dysfunctional governance at state and federal
levels can be completely dismissed. :cool:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/11/us-coronavirus-data-is-disturbing-dr-fauci-says-in-disputing-trump.html

Fifth: Foreign Policy.
Russia occupies Crimea. "West" reacts with piss and wind; sanctions.
USA reneges on Iran treaty. As usual - Washington sanctions. USA is an unreliable and untrustworthy international party.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33521655
USA pointlessly provokes 'Little Rocket Man", and then walks away bested. Washington sanctions.
https://koreanwarlegacy.org/chapters/north-toward-the-yalu-river/

South China Sea - China - fear of the loss of hegemony.
Freedom of Navigation provocations were used in the Persian Gulf to foster military intervention.
The USS Stark and USS Vincennes served America well in bizarre incidents to warmonger in the Middle East.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Vincennes_(CG-49)
"dispatched to the Persian Gulf in 1988 in support of Operation Earnest Will (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Earnest_Will) during the Iran–Iraq War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War). Operating in this capacity the
cruiser shot down Iran Air Flight 655 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655) over the Persian Gulf (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Gulf), killing 290 passengers and sparking an international incident (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_incident) between
Iran (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran) and the United States."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Stark_incident
"The USS Stark incident occurred during the Iran–Iraq War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War) on 17 May 1987, when an Iraqi jet aircraft fired two Exocet (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exocet) missiles at
the American frigate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frigate) USS Stark (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Stark_(FFG-31)). A total of thirty-seven United States Navy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Navy) personnel were killed or later died as a result of the attack,
and twenty-one were injured........................................... ..
Washington used the incident to pressure Iran, which it later blamed for the whole situation. President Reagan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reagan) said "We've never
considered them [Iraq's military] hostile at all", and "the villain in the piece is Iran".[7] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Stark_incident#cite_note-7)[8] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Stark_incident#cite_note-8)[9]" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Stark_incident#cite_note-9)
Both incidents show how desperate the USA was to export barbarity and extreme violence.

Freedom of Navigation exercises in South China Sea now attempt to promote 'Gulf of Tonkin' type incidents.
https://www.britannica.com/event/Gulf-of-Tonkin-incident
(https://www.britannica.com/event/Gulf-of-Tonkin-incident)
Clearly Washington desperately needs a major distraction, a diversion to domestic chaos, and to 'unite' the Union in yet another
foreign war.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3048967/us-freedom-navigation-patrols-south-china-sea-hit-record-high

https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/navy-warships-conduct-back-to-back-freedom-of-navigation-operations-in-south-china-sea-1.627890

https://thediplomat.com/2020/01/south-china-sea-us-littoral-combat-ship-conducts-freedom-of-navigation-operation/

https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/us-conducts-freedom-of-navigation-operation-near-china-held-features-in-spratlys/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-china-southchinasea-pm/australia-to-continue-to-support-freedomof-navigation-in-south-china-sea-pm-says-idUSKCN24H0D5

An interesting angle on Taiwan;
https://www.smh.com.au/national/echoes-of-pearl-harbour-in-latest-us-moves-on-china-20200913-p55v4s.html

So. What was not on Strauss and Howe's prediction list?
Well, they didn't predict the Tech revolution, the dysfunction of the old media/fourth estate and explosion of social media.
But fakebook et al, is totally benign, no worries.

And.... Climate change is a hoax. Nothing to see there.........
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/12/fires-in-oregon-california-and-washington-spread-death-toll-rises.html
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/oregon-s-wildfires-force-mass-evacuations-trump-to-tour-scorched-california-20200913-p55v2e.html

Finally, some fake news. Won't happen;
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-world-is-on-the-cusp-of-a-new-era-says-deutsche-strategist-and-heres-what-it-means-for-markets-11599589831?mod=home-page

rfffgfffvfhvhbvhv

[Valuegrowth]

Thank you everybody for some useful information. In my view it is time to spend some time to find out quality stocks that are still going for a song.Another way to identify possible stock market presents for 2018 is to look at last year’s worst performers. In other word, there is an overlooked play in the market.

According to link posted by GF, they are expecting the following scenarios.

Looking ahead, they expect key commodity prices to come under pressure, as growth in China slows, and global supply increases in some markets. On that type of scenario, milk prices could stay moderate in 2018.

It seems lamb prices are still going to elevate as solid demand coincides with tight supplies in key exporting countries in 2018. Beef prices are also still remain at historically favourable levels on the back of robust consumer demand even though international beef prices have eased from their recent highs. In short, Agriculture earnings will not drop drastically in New Zealand in 2018

Slower construction growth in China expected to weigh on demand for New Zealand logs.

Wool prices may struggle to improve much against a backdrop of expected slower growth in China.

International demand for specialist varieties of horticulture likely to remain firm.

They expect the Reserve Bank to delay interest rate hikes until late 2019. I also expected the same.

[bull....]

looks like it gonna really get hammered today

[bull....]

yet again the last week atm and sml have been masking the true performance of the nz50

[winner69]

Funny beast that NZX50 being a gross need with dividends reinvested (across the index)

Doesn’t seem good idea that say getting divies from winners like thl etc mean you ‘buy’ more fbu and skt ...but that’s how indices work.

But then the fbu divie doesn’t get all reinvested in fbu but they ‘buy’ some atm and other winners.

Just an useless fact for today

[winner69]

NZ50 Capital index looking a bit weak of late as we move from a trend-following regime to a mean-reverting regime. Chart shows this

Valuation compression is often not recognised until it’s all happened.

These things don’t happen overnight - it’s a gradual grinding down process.

Many punters feel comfortable that interest rates in NZ will remain low for the ‘foreseeable future’. With divergence in US and NZ rates occurring prospects of higher inflation in NZ increase which means we could see some surprisingly large increases in our interest rates next year (the foreseeable future). I reckon some punters are getting a bit complacent about rates staying low for the ‘foreseeable future’

So future market returns for rest of this year and for 2019 might disappoint ....could even be negative. Just have to keep to be a stock picker strategy but being fully aware there are headwinds

Chart is of NZX50 Capital Index

[Beagle]

I certainly wouldn't invest in an NZX50 tracking fund at present as I agree the market per se is fully priced.
Without ATM the market would have had about a 4% correction in the first quarter, (read that somewhere...might have been the NBR recently) Plenty of dogs in the NZX50 not the least of which by any means is FBU. Plenty of volatility ahead that's for sure but that won't stop good companies growing.
The trick is finding good companies that will grow regardless of the macerations of overseas markets, trading on sensible multiples and while riding this rollercoaster only buy on the dips and try and ignore the noise.

[couta1]

Well the Trumpet has had no effect on the NZX today, people just ignoring the instrument blowing out the same old sound.

[Beagle]

Well the Trumpet has had no effect on the NZX today, people just ignoring the instrument blowing out the same old sound.

The resident gloomy bear must be gutted.

[bull....]

The Overseas Investment Office has signed off on two deals involving public market transactions that have yet to be announced

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/5ca5243c/oio-clears-two-yet-to-be-announced-deals-involving-public-companies.html

interesting im thinking PGW AND TGH ? anyone else got some guesses?

[value_investor]

NZX50 is up just under 3% this year at this point (5 full months into the year)

Interesting when you look at the index itself and its easy to see why the performance has been tepid so far https://www.nzx.com/announcements/318808

Factors that point to the index continuing this trend:
- Electricity related companies currently being reviewed by the government for perceived lack of competition in pricing. This is going to last 18 months so strap yourself in. I see this as a political weapon for the government in the next election hence the drawn out process.

- Banking sector being put under a microscope in the short term here and across the ditch.

- Overpriced companies such as AIA, FPH, RBD, EBO to name a few. All excellent companies that many investors could want but a tough pill to buy at these prices.

- Poorly run companies or companies in sunset industries eg. FBU and SKT

- Greater volatility on the world stage

Annualised, we are still due a 6-7% increase from this stage but looking at that list its hard to find winners from that list that you can confidently go on (SUM doing better than others). Take out ATM and we aren't up at all really. This value investor is finding it hard to park money anywhere domestically at the moment.

[horus1]

Agree with you but if you look at IFT they have good forward looking growth schemes. You have left out that environmental concerns will affect diary farming going forward so I do NOT like Fonterra , SML, or ATM . If you look around a lot of diary factory assets are / have been built. The raw product probably won't be available for them.

[winner69]

NZX50 be over 9,000 sometime this week

And then heading to 10,000

Cool eh

[traineeinvestor]

NZX50 be over 9,000 sometime this week

And then heading to 10,000

Cool eh

Exceptionally uncool for those wanting to add to their positions. Very little for the value investor at this point in the cycle.

[value_investor]

Exceptionally uncool for those wanting to add to their positions. Very little for the value investor at this point in the cycle.

I agree with this, its very difficult to find anything of value right now. I wonder when this ends..

[winner69]

I agree with this, its very difficult to find anything of value right now. I wonder when this ends..

at 10,000 plus ....maybe later

[troyvdh]

as J Ryder...recently said...."dance near the door".I believe I am correct but if not I apologize.

[bull....]

breaking out from the inverted head an shoulders on the daily looks like a target of 8800 pretty quick if wall st behaves

reached our target nicely , still looking good the trend at the moment.

[bull....]

at 10,000 plus ....maybe later

looking good a winner although the article below from forsyth doesnt think so. although i recall a lot of them fellas from brokerages been saying so for a couple years now guess they be right one day

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12067173

[BobbyMorocco]

as J Ryder...recently said...."dance near the door".I believe I am correct but if not I apologize.

I believe I'm trying to do what he means by this, but maybe I'm not the best dancer. Sometimes I trip up and find I've stumbled out the door too early. Then I'm left watching people at the party still having a great time while I stand near the door thinking that the price to re-enter is too steep.

[BlackPeter]

I believe I'm trying to do what he means by this, but maybe I'm not the best dancer. Sometimes I trip up and find I've stumbled out the door too early. Then I'm left watching people at the party still having a great time while I stand near the door thinking that the price to re-enter is too steep.

Happens to all of us. Impossible to determine the top while you are there because it is impossible to predict the future value of shares.

You can only be cautious and sell early (and likely to loose out on some future gains) or greedy and sell late (and therefore loosing out on the descent). If there would be a method to determine the top while you are at it, it would not work anyway because everybody would apply this method and try to sell at the same time ... but nobody would buy anymore. Joys of being part of a level 2 chaotic system ...


LEVEL TWO CHAOS IS WHEN THE PREDICTIONS THEMSELVES CHANGE the outcome of the chaos

[BobbyMorocco]

Very true, but isn't it fun to be a part of it! I guess by nature I consider myself a cautious person when it comes to finances and I don't think I'm greedy because I'm pretty content with what I have. When you think about that it makes sense that I'd find myself on the side of selling too early to lock in profits more often than not. Hopefully as I learn more about myself and the market I'll get closer to exiting at the elusive peak.

[bull....]

see the whole rally in the nzx last mth is being mainly lead by the fph , spk , gentailers utility type companies, a2 has declined as well some other previous leaders of the rally

[troyvdh]

Blackpeter...indeed it does...and Bobby...yes it is...I suppose a few historic comments are warranted here...i.,e...you cant go bust making a profit...when one buys a share-it can help to determine a sell price....when the tide goes out....returns of about 7 % pa (consistently) is respectable....would you sell and buy the company again today...I could go on.I often look (ANZ SEC) at the NZ50 3 year chart...and my neck gets really sore.,...I somewhat afraid to look at the 4-5 -6 year chart....cheers.

Just thinking perhaps its disclosure time..i.e dosh in the mkts...about $165k..Oz and nz

[Scrunch]

Happens to all of us. Impossible to determine the top while you are there because it is impossible to predict the future value of shares.


And its possible, just possible that we are no-where near the top. Its easy to make the case that the markets over-valued, but that doesn't explain why there is continued buying and a generally rising market. Are we part of a bigger, system phase in which the return provided for taking on risk is systematically decreasing from historical levels, driving prices up?

If a utility or other "safe" share can pay a gross dividend above the gross interest rate you can get on low risk (not no-risk) interest rate products, its it really that expensive. Could it be sensible to inflate share prices to close the positive differential that shares have - especially since dividend payout rates tend to increase over time?

[bull....]

And its possible, just possible that we are no-where near the top. Its easy to make the case that the markets over-valued, but that doesn't explain why there is continued buying and a generally rising market. Are we part of a bigger, system phase in which the return provided for taking on risk is systematically decreasing from historical levels, driving prices up?

If a utility or other "safe" share can pay a gross dividend above the gross interest rate you can get on low risk (not no-risk) interest rate products, its it really that expensive. Could it be sensible to inflate share prices to close the positive differential that shares have - especially since dividend payout rates tend to increase over time?

agree interest rates in nz will be low for years , even mortgage rates are falling again so even the banks think so too. utilities in nz are still very attractive from a income perspective if you believe the rates story

[Joshuatree]

Curious, who has prudently stepped through the exit or at least opened it ,ie taken money out of the market?

[BlackPeter]

Curious, who has prudently stepped through the exit or at least opened it ,ie taken money out of the market?

Well, I hold a bit more cash and bonds than normally (but still a minute amount compared to my investments: less than 10 %) and moved some funds into more conservative holdings.

As well - tightened some stop losses, but it would be just a pity to potentially miss out on the last one to 2 years (give or take) of this amazing bull run ...

[bull....]

Curious, who has prudently stepped through the exit or at least opened it ,ie taken money out of the market?

i did lighten up significantly after jan as a precaution to wall st downturn , but are now fully invested again

[couta1]

2020 will be the end of the Bull run IMO, before that a possible 20ish% correction at start of 2019, then the final run to the top.

[dobby41]

Curious, who has prudently stepped through the exit or at least opened it ,ie taken money out of the market?

I have taken half my money out ($300k) and paid down a bit of mortgage.

[Jay]

Curious, who has prudently stepped through the exit or at least opened it ,ie taken money out of the market?

John Key apparently, to put into Bitcoin :D

Personally, I have not, though mainly trade, longer term portfolio has just bought some OCA recently

[Filthy]

9000 hit today. one way traffic since the end of April. its starting to feel a bit toppy now. esp compared to dow & asx200. would be keen to see a slight (healthy) correction before the next leg up eh...

[bull....]

over 9000 again :t_up: winston will be happy

[bull....]

9000 hit today. one way traffic since the end of April. its starting to feel a bit toppy now. esp compared to dow & asx200. would be keen to see a slight (healthy) correction before the next leg up eh...

nz in the top 10 markets now behind leaders nasdaq and russell ytd top 3 last mth, as a note the markets which are positive for the year is declining all the time so concentration is an explaination? or was the market celebrating jacinda baby ?

[JoeGrogan]

9000 hit today. one way traffic since the end of April. its starting to feel a bit toppy now. esp compared to dow & asx200. would be keen to see a slight (healthy) correction before the next leg up eh...

Agree it's looking a bit toppy. but there has been a lot of strong performers too including some unloved sectors over the last year getting a re rating (eg retirement sector).

ASX 200 finally breaking out of a recent resistance level, wonder if it will play catch up for being pretty lacklustre the last couple of years.


9756

[Balance]

nz in the top 10 markets now behind leaders nasdaq and russell ytd top 3 last mth, as a note the markets which are positive for the year is declining all the time so concentration is an explaination? or was the market celebrating jacinda baby ?

NZ is major beneficiary of trade war between China & US - especially meat, dairy & horticultural produce.

[Filthy]

NZ is major beneficiary of trade war between China & US - especially meat, dairy & horticultural produce.

hmm its not just China though is it? - the US are also chucking tariffs onto their other 'western' partners like the EU & Canada? ...who will be next?

while I think NZ will likely 'fly under the radar', I wouldn't be surprised if Trump (as erratic and unpredictable as he is) targets NZ/AUS as well. this might have an effect on ATM, FPH, THL & IFT

hopefully we're considered 'small-fry' and wont be targeted though. nothing to worry about eh.

[bull....]

NZ is major beneficiary of trade war between China & US - especially meat, dairy & horticultural produce.

Only problem is most supply is accounted for so not much upside. anyway our market will follow everyone else if it gets ugly , i would bet my house on that lol

[Balance]

Only problem is most supply is accounted for so not much upside. anyway our market will follow everyone else if it gets ugly , i would bet my house on that lol

Word from the field is that China importers have been cancelling or stopping orders from US for beef, dairy and other agri produce as they are going to cost 25% more from the tit for tat tariffs.

Meanwhile, the same China importers are swamping NZ producers with orders and they have already seen a modest price rise.

US is going to have to consume the beef, dairy produce or agri produce themselves or sell to other countries - but where? EU will be retaliating too! India and other Asian countries are simply not in the same league as China in import volumes.

[bull....]

Word from the field is that China importers have been cancelling or stopping orders from US for beef, dairy and other agri produce as they are going to cost 25% more from the tit for tat tariffs.

Meanwhile, the same China importers are swamping NZ producers with orders and they have already seen a modest price rise.

US is going to have to consume the beef, dairy produce or agri produce themselves or sell to other countries - but where? EU will be retaliating too! India and other Asian countries are simply not in the same league as China in import volumes.

yes a surplus of bovis cattle around we can sell them

[bull....]

nz50 consolidation around the target zone , wonder if we get a end of quarter ramp

[bull....]

just starting to pop its head out of the consolidation range on the hrly's 8900 - 9040 so i be hoping for another 140 upwards in quick order if it holds

[bull....]

couldnt breakout of the range

[Timesurfer]

I see Milford telling me the NZX is the best performing stock market in the world at the moment. That has to be a bonus?

[bull....]

I see Milford telling me the NZX is the best performing stock market in the world at the moment. That has to be a bonus?

think he got his facts wrong but nzx is up there

[bull....]

nzx couldnt breakout of range .... yet?

[Filthy]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/105433886/share-market-aversion-leaves-new-zealand-investors-out-of-pocket

the comments section in this article is well worth a read for anyone who wants an afternoon chuckle.... :) :) :)

[blackcap]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/105433886/share-market-aversion-leaves-new-zealand-investors-out-of-pocket

the comments section in this article is well worth a read for anyone who wants an afternoon chuckle.... :) :) :)

I had a read of those yesterday and I thought "If this is a cross section of NZ society, then we are very ill informed as a whole".

[dobby41]

"If this is a cross section of NZ society, then we are very ill informed as a whole".

Yes we are.
I keep hearing young people hark back to '87 and they weren't even born.
It comes from their parents and their aversion.
You can see it in Kiwisaver - young people with a conservative fund.

[rmnz]

Fairly typical Stuff comments as far as I can tell. I think its tragic younger generations are having this sort of carp drummed into them.

[winner69]

I had a read of those yesterday and I thought "If this is a cross section of NZ society, then we are very ill informed as a whole".

One comment is so true

-1

22 hours ago
MrK
10 years of growth... This seems like the perfect time to be bailing out of the stock market, which is exactly what I've done. There could hardly be worse conditions for buying than what we have right now.

This type of article always comes out around the peak, and they always look backwards rather than forwards. They draw in people who have no idea what they're doing, who then get burned and vow never to invest again. It's painful to watch.


Many on here who i hazard a guess have only seen the good times (a half cycle) and have not experienced the full cycle which

There are also many who posted on this forum in the past who have disappeared over the years .....probably a lot lost their hard earned cash

[winner69]

The way Mark uses the word ‘first’ suggests he’s expecting more (but may have just misspoke)

Mark Lister (@MarkListerNZ)
18/07/18, 8:48 AM
One of the first earnings downgraded ahead of the August reporting season out this am. Z Energy revises EBITDAF guidance down 6-7%, on the back of supply chain disruptions and high petrol prices.

[bull....]

who thinks there better than an etf ?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/105428248/millennial-money-im-investing-60000-in-virtual-money-in-the-stock-market

[bull....]

looks like nzx wants to test bottom of the range now , underperforming now after strong mth last mth being led down by a2

[bull....]

testing the bottom of the range now. Its worth noting nz market sits just outside the very top of its long term trend channel which some would consider to be an overbrought situation

[bull....]

back at bottom of the range

[minimoke]

Day after day I'm just a fist full of red down arrows. Starting to get a bit cranky now!

[value_investor]

There are a handful of really ugly companies in the NZX50, that is really holding me back from topping up more on the ETF. Infact, I haven't topped up since 2016. The bigger issue for me is if companies drop out, we don't really have much up and comers in terms of IPO's that can take their place.

OCA is probably the last relatively large profile listing and we've had nothing yet. Always hearing news about potential listings such as My Food Bag etc but nothing of substance has come out yet.

[bull....]

RBNZ has put a rocket under the nzx today saying rates will be on hold for years to come , those div shares look even more attractive today to investors. also kiwi is falling big time good for exporters.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1808/S00284/update-no-interest-rate-change-before-2020.htm

[Bobdn]

RBNZ has put a rocket under the nzx today saying rates will be on hold for years to come , those div shares look even more attractive today to investors. also kiwi is falling big time good for exporters.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1808/S00284/update-no-interest-rate-change-before-2020.htm

Yes indeed, its been a fun day so far and has cheered me up. August has been pretty dismal overall for me.

I have a friend who has been in cash for a decade now. I'm not joking (maybe he has 10 to 20 per cent exposure to shares through managed funds, if that). Obviously we don't discuss the share market any more.

[bull....]

Yes indeed, its been a fun day so far and has cheered me up. August has been pretty dismal overall for me.

I have a friend who has been in cash for a decade now. I'm not joking (maybe he has 10 to 20 per cent exposure to shares through managed funds, if that). Obviously we don't discuss the share market any more.

even the best investors have dismal months

[dubya]

I have a friend who has been in cash for a decade now. I'm not joking (maybe he has 10 to 20 per cent exposure to shares through managed funds, if that). Obviously we don't discuss the share market any more.

I have a friend who has had ALL his retirement savings (as in everything) in Bonus Bonds for the last 10 years (won virtually nothing) and we don't discuss the share market anymore for the same obvious reasons.

Oh and btw the reason he won't buy any shares is that he is scared of losing money, yet he can't comprehend how much he's lost in Bonus Bonds with virtually no income return, no capital appreciation, and inflation has eroded his buying power tremendously too.

It's quite sad how financially illiterate some people are 😣😣😣😣

[Bobdn]

Yes, quite right. I think quite a few people didn't get back on the horse after 1987.

[dobby41]

Yes, quite right. I think quite a few people didn't get back on the horse after 1987.

And that's a couple of generations ago!
I lost relatively a lot is '87.
Didn't put me off but instead taught me a lot.

[bull....]

New Zealand Passes Law to Crack Down on Foreign Home Buyers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-14/new-zealand-poised-to-impose-crackdown-on-foreign-home-buyers

be interesting what happens now with the property market, if it tanks guess the overseas people did make a difference , wont be good for labour though as it probably feed thru to other parts of the economy like retail spending. if it stays the same guess overseas people made bugger all difference and nothing much changes overall. we will know in hindsight

[dobby41]

New Zealand Passes Law to Crack Down on Foreign Home Buyers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-14/new-zealand-poised-to-impose-crackdown-on-foreign-home-buyers

be interesting what happens now with the property market, if it tanks guess the overseas people did make a difference , wont be good for labour though as it probably feed thru to other parts of the economy like retail spending. if it stays the same guess overseas people made bugger all difference and nothing much changes overall. we will know in hindsight

Interesting isn't it.
Property is too expensive but if it drops those that already have feel hard done by even if others can now afford to live in their own home.
A conundrum indeed.

[bull....]

nearly back to the top of our range , be interesting if we break out. the rbnz announcement has made div shares very attractive again

[bull....]

breaking out of the range? see if we can hold. div stocks leading the charge

[bull....]

well and truly broken out now of the consolidation. 9240? breather im still got 10k on the radar esp if my targets for the us happen

[winner69]

well and truly broken out now of the consolidation. 9240? breather im still got 10k on the radar esp if my targets for the us happen

10,000 next month

Especially if A2 gets a rocket under it

[Timesurfer]

What happened today? Haven't seen that much action for a while.

[Valuegrowth]

This market is in the process of topping out.

[couta1]

This market is in the process of topping out. Most but not all, some shares have gone nowhere over the last year yet had excellent results.

[Baa_Baa]

Most but not all, some shares have gone nowhere over the last year yet had excellent results.

Why do you reckon that is?

[couta1]

Why do you reckon that is? With the likes of MCY, it's completely irrational and I can't explain why, that's why I bought a stack of them.

[Baa_Baa]

With the likes of MCY, it's completely irrational and I can't explain why, that's why I bought a stack of them.

Irrational is a euphemism for not understanding what one is invested in. Fine if one has the wherewithal to act very quickly either way, but deadly if not. As the market continues to find new historical highs it helps to look at the drivers and if it turns out to be a small few darlings driving the whole thing, whereas the apparently undervalued remain undervalued, that tells us that chasing value where the market doesn't see value is high risk. Even higher risk when the market is clearly stretched. I know you know this but the long road home is a lot shorter if there are no more calamities along the way.

[couta1]

Irrational is a euphemism for not understanding what one is invested in. Fine if one has the wherewithal to act very quickly either way, but deadly if not. As the market continues to find new historical highs it helps to look at the drivers and if it turns out to be a small few darlings driving the whole thing, whereas the apparently undervalued remain undervalued, that tells us that chasing value where the market doesn't see value is high risk. Even higher risk when the market is clearly stretched. I know you know this but the long road home is a lot shorter if there are no more calamities along the way. Irrational to me in this particular case means when you compare the stocks metrics against it's peers, it says undervalued, I'm happy to back myself against the market in these cases.

[Bobdn]

Monster day so far, loving every moment of it. One day, we'll see our net worth wiped out by 50%. Today is not that day.

[Mickey]

I'm not sure how others are viewing the market but there is a little too much heat in it for me. I sold off one of my largest holdings today as it was way too far above fair value (as are many others). There's a chance I may regret doing this but for now, I feel better taking some profits and sitting on the sideline for a little bit to see if it cools down a little.

[bull....]

see anz is predicting a cut to interest rates next yr , 50% factored in a cut by mid year according to the market as well at this point in time. good for divvie stocks.

[winner69]

Index update/changes. Something of a non-event.............

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZXO/323580/286387.pdf

Did the weightings change much though

[bull....]

see its retraced back to the break out point be interesting if we bounce here

[bull....]

well thats a pretty big bounce of support

[bull....]

lowest consumer confidence figures for a long time

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12127806

current account figures not looking rosy

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12127900

imagine how bad it look when investment returns decline.

[dobby41]

lowest consumer confidence figures for a long time

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12127806

Not at all surprised after the continual barrage of gloomy stories (well headlines really).

[bull....]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/107202187/confidence-in-nz-investments-at-stake-from-slow-investigations-says-ginger-group

Confidence in NZ investments at stake from slow investigations says shareholder group

talking about fma , regulatory bodies

[winner69]

lowest consumer confidence figures for a long time

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12127806

current account figures not looking rosy

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12127900

imagine how bad it look when investment returns decline.

That Westpac Consumer Confidence has a question - Do you expect to be better or worse off financially in a years time?

More now saying No than Yes ...a net negative score

This shows people are now less optimistic about improvements in their own personal position than at any time in the last 30 years outside periods when the economy was already in the midst of a recession (and materially lower than in the fairly shallow 1997/98 recession).

As an aside share markets don’t do too well when this goes negative ...hmmm

[percy]

That Westpac Consumer Confidence has a question - Do you expect to be better or worse off financially in a years time?

More now saying No than Yes ...a net negative score

This shows people are now less optimistic about improvements in their own personal position than at any time in the last 30 years outside periods when the economy was already in the midst of a recession (and materially lower than in the fairly shallow 1997/98 recession).

As an aside share markets don’t do too well when this goes negative ...hmmm

The result season has been excellent.I even brought some MVN.
Today Chris Flood, deputy CEO at HBL, said motor vehicle financing remains strong with a positive outlook.
New car sales still setting records.Your mate Jeff Greenslade, very positive about HBL's continued strong organic growth.
So this sharemarket has been going really well on negative outlook.?

[winner69]

The result season has been excellent.I even brought some MVN.
Today Chris Flood, deputy CEO at HBL, said motor vehicle financing remains strong with a positive outlook.
New car sales still setting records.Your mate Jeff Greenslade, very positive about HBL's continued strong organic growth.
So this sharemarket has been going really well on negative outlook.?


Might be a forward looking indicator

[percy]

Might be a forward looking indicator

Might be.?
Certainly not a current indicator.

[winner69]

Might be.?
Certainly not a current indicator.

Did say share market performance ...not company performance

Thl, atm, tra good examples of pretty bad share market performance ...always have a few leading thecway, others might follow

[percy]

Judgement day for TRA just a week away.Might be a case of day follows night.?
ATM well I get into trouble when I comment."No surprises there."
THL.A bit of an own goal, when tourist numbers using vans are increasing here, there ,and elsewhere?

[winner69]

Confidence per se guides market sentiment, ie what punters are prepared to pay for a buck of profit.

Looks like they are starting to be pay less (even though profits in a lot of cases are going up)

[Baa_Baa]

Confidence per se guides market sentiment, ie what punters are prepared to pay for a buck of profit.

Looks like they are starting to be pay less (even though profits in a lot of cases are going up)

It all just portends the great reckoning. Thankfully most here have the wherewithal to bank their gains and cut their losses. Until it happens, ride the wave. Crashes happen in slow motion, it's only the shocking first few days that the window is open to minimise losses. Until that happens, ride the wave, don't predict it.

Jmho

[Patient Panda]

Did say share market performance ...not company performance

Thl, atm, tra good examples of pretty bad share market performance ...always have a few leading thecway, others might follow


How is ATM having bad shareprice performance? Looks great to me

can’t say the same for the other two, thats for sure.

[couta1]

How is ATM having bad shareprice performance? Looks great to me

can’t say the same for the other two, thats for sure. Yeah so bad that like XRO those that bought a reasonable number early on can choose to never do another days work in their life.Lol.

[winner69]

How is ATM having bad shareprice performance? Looks great to me

can’t say the same for the other two, thats for sure.

Nearly 20% off its high ....sentiment changing?

[bull....]

new way for kiwi investors to access the us markets

KiwiWealth, a sister company to Kiwibank, will today launch Hatch - an online trading platform which aims to under-cut brokers and allow people to buy fractions of shares in companies like Apple, Facebook and Amazon for the first time from New Zealand

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=12130743

[Pipi]

new way for kiwi investors to access the us markets

KiwiWealth, a sister company to Kiwibank, will today launch Hatch - an online trading platform which aims to under-cut brokers and allow people to buy fractions of shares in companies like Apple, Facebook and Amazon for the first time from New Zealand

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=12130743

Wow this looks fantastic. Will open it up to a lot more small investors.

[couta1]

Wow this looks fantastic. Will open it up to a lot more small investors. We need another player that does NZX shares on a no frills basis, the brokerage rates in Aussie are dirt cheap with all sorts of incentives for volume and number of trades.

[Pipi]

We need another player that does NZX shares on a no frills basis, the brokerage rates in Aussie are dirt cheap with all sorts of incentives for volume and number of trades.

I was thinking the exactly the same - be good if someone here did this. But maybe our market isn't big enough. I'm a small time investor, put what spare money I have into the sharemarket. So quite often I can't invest when I want to. This opens up a a whole new area for me, and would be get to have this for NZ.

I'm currently putting into index funds, because of the small amounts you can put in, I can really diversify.

[bull....]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/107323211/kiwi-wealth-unveils-fintech-startup-hatch-to-help-kiwi-investors-buy-us-companies

well done , the traditional brokers charge outragous fees for buying stocks in the us.

i think this is the link

https://www.hatchinvest.nz/

[Lewylewylewy]

I wonder how the tax will work

[Filthy]

I wonder how the tax will work

plenty of info in the FAQ section on the site.

[sb9]

We need another player that does NZX shares on a no frills basis, the brokerage rates in Aussie are dirt cheap with all sorts of incentives for volume and number of trades.

Absolutely, even if someone can offer services at 80% of current fee charged then most of us will jump.

Thought someone from across the ditch would've been more practical player.

[Filthy]

Absolutely, even if someone can offer services at 80% of current fee charged

plus improve the user interface as well - rather than the clunky old websites we get given....

[Jaa]

I signed up for the Beta test, a week ago. Very easy signup process and they are responsive to ideas.

The pricing per share is bizarre to me but still works out much cheaper than ASB or ANZ securities. The currency currency fees and a bit cheaper but still more expensive than using a forex broker or Transfer Wise (https://transferwise.com/u/jamesg713).

Also, encouraged them to expand to the ASX and NZX!

[dabsman]

I just signed up - took about 2 minutes. Interested to start putting a little money across and giving it a go. Very good user interface from my looking around

[Mickey]

I signed up too - very easy. I must admit though, I don't quite understand the mechanics of FIF and the $50K rule. I know there is a thread on here somewhere that covers it but I recall when I read it a year or so back that it didn't quite answer my question. I'll look for it again as this isn't the right thread for seeking clarification.

[bull....]

I signed up too - very easy. I must admit though, I don't quite understand the mechanics of FIF and the $50K rule. I know there is a thread on here somewhere that covers it but I recall when I read it a year or so back that it didn't quite answer my question. I'll look for it again as this isn't the right thread for seeking clarification.

under 50k is except from tax , you can do 50k you and 50k your partner and still be except

[Mickey]

under 50k is except from tax , you can do 50k you and 50k your partner and still be except

The bit that I don't quite understand Bull is this. If I bought stocks to the value of $30K, held them for most of the year and then sold half, does that equal a cost of $15K? Then - if I bought additional stocks within the same tax year for $30K - does that mean I have a total of $45K costs for that tax year - or is it the cumulative amount of $60K spent on stocks within that tax year irrespective of those sold?

[777]

$45,000 in your example. Remember that if you are exempt from the $50,000 minimus you still have to pay tax on dividends received.

[Microsloth]

Similar business model https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robinhood_(company)

[Jonboyz]

I signed up too - very easy. I must admit though, I don't quite understand the mechanics of FIF and the $50K rule. I know there is a thread on here somewhere that covers it but I recall when I read it a year or so back that it didn't quite answer my question. I'll look for it again as this isn't the right thread for seeking clarification.

Good summary of FIF - https://www.hatchinvest.nz/blog/2018/9/25/tax-attack-what-you-should-know-about-your-us-amp-nz-tax-obligations (https://www.hatchinvest.nz/blog/2018/9/25/tax-attack-what-you-should-know-about-your-us-amp-nz-tax-obligations)

[Snow Leopard]

Hey guys:
There is a thread on Hatch in the Investment section of this forum:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11380-Hatch-investment-service

Better than fouling this thread with non-NZX posts

[Bobdn]

What an amazing last day of the month. Just when I thought the market couldn't get any dumber...it totally redeems itself! Yay for GNE, SPK, CNU, ANZ, AIR and SUM. My cheat day isn't until Sunday but I feel a rule change coming on...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0TfFz6J5t0

[BigBob]

plus improve the user interface as well - rather than the clunky old websites we get given....

Not just user interface, but we have to put up with ridiculously basic functionality... I use ASB Securities and they don't have stop loss, target buy, trailing stop loss, at open, at close or any conditional orders or anything other than just pure vanilla. All of the above was available on my etrade account about a decade ago..

It really is appalling functionality... Don't think any of the other providers are any better...

[bull....]

Not just user interface, but we have to put up with ridiculously basic functionality... I use ASB Securities and they don't have stop loss, target buy, trailing stop loss, at open, at close or any conditional orders or anything other than just pure vanilla. All of the above was available on my etrade account about a decade ago..

It really is appalling functionality... Don't think any of the other providers are any better...

totally agree the trading platforms in nz at all brokers i know of are crap and you have the pleasure of paying high prices to use them lol i can only presume it is because most people in nz are investors not traders therefore dont need anything special?

[Baa_Baa]

Not just user interface, but we have to put up with ridiculously basic functionality... I use ASB Securities and they don't have stop loss, target buy, trailing stop loss, at open, at close or any conditional orders or anything other than just pure vanilla. All of the above was available on my etrade account about a decade ago..

It really is appalling functionality... Don't think any of the other providers are any better...

For sure it's functionally constrained, bit of a joke compared to sophisticated on-market systems. But it does have a couple of things you're saying it doesn't have.
10001

[dagdaniel1]

Not just user interface, but we have to put up with ridiculously basic functionality... I use ASB Securities and they don't have stop loss, target buy, trailing stop loss, at open, at close or any conditional orders or anything other than just pure vanilla. All of the above was available on my etrade account about a decade ago..

It really is appalling functionality... Don't think any of the other providers are any better...

ASB do have stoploss and target buy. Took me like 6 months to realise they were there - you have to go through "place an order" rather than just clicking "buy" or "sell" when looking at a security.

[BigBob]

Thanks guys - I have used ASB for donkeys years, but never noticed...

I normally do click through buy or sell...

[Bobdn]

What an amazing last day of the month. Just when I thought the market couldn't get any dumber...it totally redeems itself! Yay for GNE, SPK, CNU, ANZ, AIR and SUM. My cheat day isn't until Sunday but I feel a rule change coming on...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0TfFz6J5t0

Yeah, cheat day went well, everyone. Nothing like a few drinks by oneself and some fish and chips to celebrate another quarter in the black, right? *high five*

[winner69]

One would have to think that something has to give some time


Chart showsforward PE of the NZX50 over time


Comment from AMP report says that global passive and quant inflows are swamping the small NZ market. During August, the top 10 stocks in New Zealand rose by 6.8%, but the S&P/NZX50 Gross Index excluding these stocks advanced by a far lesser 1.2%. This performance by the largest stocks has driven a clear valuation divergence between them and everything else, with FNZC data showing a staggering 9 PE point difference between the average market PE forecast for June 2019 (25.1x) and the median PE (16.0x).

[Leftfield]

Comment from AMP report says that global passive and quant inflows are swamping the small NZ market. During August, the top 10 stocks in New Zealand rose by 6.8%, but the S&P/NZX50 Gross Index excluding these stocks advanced by a far lesser 1.2%. This performance by the largest stocks has driven a clear valuation divergence between them and everything else, with FNZC data showing a staggering 9 PE point difference between the average market PE forecast for June 2019 (25.1x) and the median PE (16.0x).

Thanks for posting Winner....... looking a bit 'toppy' to me.

[bull....]

One would have to think that something has to give some time


Chart showsforward PE of the NZX50 over time


Comment from AMP report says that global passive and quant inflows are swamping the small NZ market. During August, the top 10 stocks in New Zealand rose by 6.8%, but the S&P/NZX50 Gross Index excluding these stocks advanced by a far lesser 1.2%. This performance by the largest stocks has driven a clear valuation divergence between them and everything else, with FNZC data showing a staggering 9 PE point difference between the average market PE forecast for June 2019 (25.1x) and the median PE (16.0x).

nice chart winner , looks like a bull market to me still hasnt crossed the 200d to the downside so looking good for more upside a

[Bobdn]

The market giveth and the market taketh away....

October: When I looked at teletex on 20 October 1987, I thought it was on the fritz because the numbers were so off.

It will be great to finally get a bear market underway, waiting for a collapse becomes so tiring.

[clearasmud]

The market giveth and the market taketh away....

October: When I looked at teletex on 20 October 1987, I thought it was on the fritz because the numbers were so off.

It will be great to finally get a bear market underway, waiting for a collapse becomes so tiring.

This isn't a bear market just a correction.

[Bobdn]

Yes, that's right.

I'm heading out for a walk on the coast. I'm hitting refresh a bit too much today.

[bull....]

potential double top daily , well overbrought on the weekly and showing a divergence on the rsi as the chart shows... warning sign?

10052

[peat]

its a bit easy posting that today bull....
and note that the rsi has diverged many times over the last few years.

[bull....]

its a bit easy posting that today bull....
and note that the rsi has diverged many times over the last few years.

wow no because potential double top only happened today , anyway we all only know in hindsight if we are right

[horus1]

There has been a double top forming for a few weeks. I think it falls to 8300 -8400

[bull....]

There has been a double top forming for a few weeks. I think it falls to 8300 -8400

it has , broke down today. was waiting to see if a range developed but no. just going under previous support at 8840 now from early august. next support around your figures. my hope of 10k looks a dream now lol oh well thats the markets for you

[dameofdiv]

Dear all, sorry to be asking so bluntly.
Is today a good time to buy shares? If I have some money now, which stock would you recommend that I buy please?

Appreciate any help and reply.

[steveb]

Dear all, sorry to be asking so bluntly.
Is today a good time to buy shares? If I have some money now, which stock would you recommend that I buy please?

Appreciate any help and reply.

It looks like the correction to the US markets is set to continue tomorrow (futures are down) So probably wise to wait until tomorrow.

[blackcap]

Does anyone know when the last time was that the NZX fell 330 points in a day?

[winner69]

Does anyone know when the last time was that the NZX fell 330 points in a day?

@marklisternz
Wow. That was the worst day for the NZ market since October 16, 2008, almost a decade ago. The NZX 50 is down 7.0% from the record highs of last month. Australia is faring better, down 2.6%, while Japan and China are off more than 4% so far today.

[blackcap]

@marklisternz
Wow. That was the worst day for the NZ market since October 16, 2008, almost a decade ago. The NZX 50 is down 7.0% from the record highs of last month. Australia is faring better, down 2.6%, while Japan and China are off more than 4% so far today.

Thanks winner. The question is is Mr Lister talking about the worst day in % terms or in points terms. Did not think it was that long ago that 330 point drop was registered!

[winner69]

Thanks winner. The question is is Mr Lister talking about the worst day in % terms or in points terms. Did not think it was that long ago that 330 point drop was registered!

Knowing mark probably %age terms

[winner69]

@marklisternz
The last decent sell-off we had in the local market was in the final quarter of 2016, two years ago. That one lasted two months, and saw the NZX 50 fall 12.0%. After bottoming in November 2016, the index rallied 20.4% in the following 12 months.

[winner69]

Dear all, sorry to be asking so bluntly.
Is today a good time to buy shares? If I have some money now, which stock would you recommend that I buy please?

Appreciate any help and reply.

Plenty of buyers yesterday .....every share is still owned by somebody

In aggregate just as many ‘got in’ as ‘got out’

[winner69]

The market is slowly grinding everybody down - thats how secular markets work - PE multiples are what drives overall market direction - secular bulls and secular bears and all that

Here's a table of some randomly selected cross section of stocks on the NZX showing how far they are of their 52 week highs. I reckon the %ages will look worse by Christmas

Ranked biggest losers to those not so bad (the so called defensive ones?)

Must be a story to be told here

[sb9]

Looks like Craigs are being bit naughty with ATM share price trading....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/325711

[BlackPeter]

The market is slowly grinding everybody down - thats how secular markets work - PE multiples are what drives overall market direction - secular bulls and secular bears and all that

Here's a table of some randomly selected cross section of stocks on the NZX showing how far they are of their 52 week highs. I reckon the %ages will look worse by Christmas

Ranked biggest losers to those not so bad (the so called defensive ones?)

Must be a story to be told here

Pretty grim picture - isn't it? Question is - are the ones which dropped already a lot better deals than the ones which still need to catch up?

Would be interesting to correlate your tab with average PE and CAGR ... but need to pass today - wife asked me to fix the irrigation system (more fun when the sun is shining ;);

Just from a brief look can't i see any correlation - both the light yellow as well as the red section seem to contain both so called growth stocks (high PE, high CAGR) as well as good and reliable earners on reasonable PE's (low PE, low CAGR) ..

[winner69]

BP .... spooky that the ones in the red and orange zones of 5hat table are some of the most discussed stocks on Sharetrader

Hope most cashed out near the 52 week highs ......and wonder how many think that the same stocks are now super cheap

[BlackPeter]

BP .... spooky that the ones in the red and orange zones of 5hat table are some of the most discussed stocks on Sharetrader

Hope most cashed out near the 52 week highs ......and wonder how many think that the same stocks are now super cheap

Good point. So - red stands for hype and we are in a time of hype deflation?

[winner69]

Good point. So - red stands for hype and we are in a time of hype deflation?

One way of looking at it BP

Sharetraders get caught up in the general market hype .....maybe, like lambs to the slaughter.

[winner69]

One other thing with that table is that most of the bigger ‘losers’ are still making more money than last year.

PE multiples are what drive market direction

[peat]

One other thing with that table is that most of the bigger ‘losers’ are still making more money than last year.

PE multiples are what drive market direction
i reckon market sentiment drives market direction and p/e multiples are simply a mathematical outcome of that.

[winner69]

i reckon market sentiment drives market direction and p/e multiples are simply a mathematical outcome of that.

Market sentiment = how much am I prepared to pay for a $ of earnings

That is an ‘input’ decision from punters — meaning PE is not really a mathematical ‘outcome’

But I suppose we agree PE is a measure of market sentiment

[Baa_Baa]

One way of looking at it BP

Sharetraders get caught up in the general market hype .....maybe, like lambs to the slaughter.

The NZX capital index chart got ugly today dropping convincingly below 200 E&DMA. Below the uptrend line from 2012, now resistance. Ugly. Modest support around 8370 then 7360 below that (monthly log chart). October! History doesn't repeat but it does rhyme. Or something like that. Still heaps of headroom for the long haulers, but they also know corrections can turn into crashes and it all happens in excruciatingly slow motion. You look back and ask yourself why if you saw it coming that you did nothing about it.

[Catalyst]

Good spotting Baa Baa and Greater Fool. The bog standard 200 day moving average has been broken over the past week but it has been broken three times before in the last 6 years and the market has still advanced. However, of more interest is the upwards trend line of the NZSX50 that has been in place since 2012 has just been broken :(. Who knows what the future holds but I take this as a red alert signal - no buying, action all sell signals, keep capital safe at the moment.

[RupertBear]

The NZX capital index chart got ugly today dropping convincingly below 200 E&DMA. Below the uptrend line from 2012, now resistance. Ugly. Modest support around 8370 then 7360 below that (monthly log chart). October! History doesn't repeat but it does rhyme. Or something like that. Still heaps of headroom for the long haulers, but they also know corrections can turn into crashes and it all happens in excruciatingly slow motion. You look back and ask yourself why if you saw it coming that you did nothing about it.

That is so true Baa Baa, I have been watching profits dissapear and red arrows appear instead and i keep telling myself when they go back up I will sell them! They just dont seem to be going back up this time! Maybe they wont

[couta1]

That is so true Baa Baa, I have been watching profits dissapear and red arrows appear instead and i keep telling myself when they go back up I will sell them! They just dont seem to be going back up this time! Maybe they wont Fear not young bear, over the long horizon the stock market has always gone up.PS-Did I forget to mention that the longest recovery period on a down cycle on the Dow was 25 yrs, lots of patience may be required.

[Leftfield]

Fear not young bear, over the long horizon the stock market has always gone up.PS-Did I forget to mention that the longest recovery period on a down cycle on the Dow was 25 yrs, lots of patience may be required.

Indexes are an average measure. Even in Bear markets there will be individual stocks that outperform the 'averages'.

[couta1]

Indexes are an average measure. Even in Bear markets there will be individual stocks that outperform the 'averages'. You must of course be referring to HLG. :cool:

[dobby41]

Fear not young bear, over the long horizon the stock market has always gone up.PS-Did I forget to mention that the longest recovery period on a down cycle on the Dow was 25 yrs, lots of patience may be required.

The average bull market length is 9.1 years and the average bear is 1.4.
Let's hope if we are finally heading into a bear market that it is average of less - much shorter than your 25 years.

[winner69]

Indexes are an average measure. Even in Bear markets there will be individual stocks that outperform the 'averages'.

Surely half the stocks will outperform the ‘average’ ...or at least the median

[winner69]

The market is slowly grinding everybody down - thats how secular markets work - PE multiples are what drives overall market direction - secular bulls and secular bears and all that

Here's a table of some randomly selected cross section of stocks on the NZX showing how far they are of their 52 week highs. I reckon the %ages will look worse by Christmas

Ranked biggest losers to those not so bad (the so called defensive ones?)

Must be a story to be told here

Think most of the %ages get bigger yesterday

[Leftfield]

You must of course be referring to HLG. :cool:

of course....and ATM (he said hopefully) ;)

[BlackPeter]

of course....and ATM (he said hopefully) ;)

And there are so many other still well performing companies currently on the NZX. Just looking into my portfolio:

Quite happy with my investment in Argosy (ARG), Gentrack (GTK), Millenium Coopthorne (MCK), CDL Investments (though slightly below MA200), Mainfreight (MFT) - and even Metro Performance Glas (MPG) and Turners Automotive (TRA) while on a low level seem to be quite untouched by the recent jitter ... and there are others slightly dropped but now looking like great value (OCA and even SUM)

It is clearly not all bleak (yet ?)

[BlackPeter]

and while I am at it ... anybody noticed that IFT is still in a nice uptrend (above MA100?)

[winner69]

Big round of applause for the bargain hunters who came out in force in the US last night to stop the rot and save the day

Hope they come out in NZ today as well

We need these bargain hunters ....good people

[winner69]

Good ...the bargain hunters are out in force

Market on fire

Good end to week

[bull....]

Good ...the bargain hunters are out in force

Market on fire

Good end to week

maybe its the sellers are not out in force yet

[winner69]

maybe its the sellers are not out in force yet

That’ll get the bargain hunters even more excited

[bull....]

That’ll get the bargain hunters even more excited

sellers are frothing at the mouth over these higher prices just need more volume on the bid before we unleash them this afternoon

[bull....]

have to agree with the nzx on this one

It appears from the Tax Working Group's interim report that a different capital treatment is contemplated for Australasian shares held by investors directly, compared to those to held through PIEs," they noted

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/108699378/tax-plan-could-see-kiwi-firms-shift-hqs-to-australia-nzx-warns

look at xero moved for better liquidity

[Bjauck]

Xero is just one of a string of NZ companies ending up being foreign-owned or seeking better access to capital by moving off-shore.

The 1987 Share crash scared off many NZ boomers from share investment, the finance companies debacle and other factors have all already conspired to make non-real estate investment a poor relation to real estate investment in NZ.

Perhaps we we will have to settle for NZ to be an under-capitalised low-productivity foreign-owned economy (to greater extent) with very expensive real estate?

[bull....]

Xero is just one of a string of NZ companies ending up being foreign-owned or seeking better access to capital by moving off-shore.

The 1987 Share crash scared off many NZ boomers from share investment, the finance companies debacle and other factors have all already conspired to make non-real estate investment a poor relation to real estate investment in NZ.

Perhaps we we will have to settle for NZ to be an under-capitalised low-productivity foreign-owned economy (to greater extent) with very expensive real estate?

big banks have stitched up kiwisaver and now funds are trying to stitch up share investing. all about fee gathering. if 41% of nzx volume is mom an pops thats a lot more fees for funds if they skew the tax and alot less tax for the govt funny enough.

[Bjauck]

big banks have stitched up kiwisaver and now funds are trying to stitch up share investing. all about fee gathering. if 41% of nzx volume is mom an pops thats a lot more fees for funds if they skew the tax and alot less tax for the govt funny enough.
Yep more clipping of the tickets if Mom and Pop are channelled into investing through PIEs as opposed to investing directly in shares.

It would have been great if NZ instos/pension funds had been bigger with more liquidity on which NZ companies could have drawn as that may have meant fewer NZ companies locating overseas.

[McGinty]

I have just been doing some back of the envelope workings trying to figure out the NZX50 constituents and any possible adjustments that could be announced next Friday.

This data is generally hard to find these days, and doing my own research (and back tracking the last 3 years of additions and removals) I think I've come up with a fairly accurate list.

Possible removals include the NZX itself, followed by IPL.

Possible additions could be OCA, VGL & HLG (as McQ's partial sell down would improve OCA free float and the other two have been trading at 5 year highs the last 6 months).

Now looking ahead to early next year with the TME and RBD takeovers underway, we could see all these 'possibles' enter the index.

Interested in others thoughts on the Index topic :)

[bull....]

nzx tried and failed again last 2 days to get back above the 50% retracement . bearish

[BlackPeter]

nzx tried and failed again last 2 days to get back above the 50% retracement . bearish

You clearly seem to enjoy yourself. Are you sure you have the right name de plume - or is this the ultimate leg-puller?

Anyway - NZX50 still above the MA200 - but yes, it is straddling the line and might well dive below it if today is a real downer.

Yesterday would have been a good time to throw out any remaining high-beta shares and increase cash ... but than. today might be a better day than tomorrow for anybody who didn't do that yet.

So what are the good news?

I think investors with solid high yield shares and bonds can still look forward to the season, no matter what the market jitters do. It does not really feel like the big one yet, but I am sure we can talk each other into it if we try really hard.

Ah yes - and the other good news is that the crook in chief wants to be re-elected in less than 2 years. Hardly a good time for him to push the markets into a prolonged bear. Just watch markets going up again as soon as his organisation bought enough distressed shares in the current volatility and he settles the tradewar with China on a more permanent basis. Trump the saviour?

[bull....]

You clearly seem to enjoy yourself. Are you sure you have the right name de plume - or is this the ultimate leg-puller?

Anyway - NZX50 still above the MA200 - but yes, it is straddling the line and might well dive below it if today is a real downer.

Yesterday would have been a good time to throw out any remaining high-beta shares and increase cash ... but than. today might be a better day than tomorrow for anybody who didn't do that yet.

So what are the good news?

I think investors with solid high yield shares and bonds can still look forward to the season, no matter what the market jitters do. It does not really feel like the big one yet, but I am sure we can talk each other into it if we try really hard.

Ah yes - and the other good news is that the crook in chief wants to be re-elected in less than 2 years. Hardly a good time for him to push the markets into a prolonged bear. Just watch markets going up again as soon as his organisation bought enough distressed shares in the current volatility and he settles the tradewar with China on a more permanent basis. Trump the saviour?

it would be silly of me to only be a bull , guess my name should have been bull bear cash

[bull....]

Australia Growth to Be Hit by Housing ‘Perfect Storm,’ AMP Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-12/australia-growth-to-be-hit-by-housing-perfect-storm-amp-says?srnd=premium-asia

another 10% fall next yr they saying. of relevance to nz as some companies have business in australia so will impact there earnings. think i read somewhere as well about a correlation between aus and nz property? if exists auckland property might decline slightly?

[bull....]

great news cannabis bill passed in parliament

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12177738

great news for people in need , just need to expand the range of people who can access it , plenty of people with other ailments who would be helped by cannabis.

might even be a listing in the future

[bull....]

on support if it breaks heading to oct lows

[bull....]

the support i mentioned yesterday will break today i believe. nz is still out performing the rest of the world it wont last the day of reckoning will come. no way we can buck the trend for any lenght of time

[BlackPeter]

Sounds like the contrarians start buying (or at least they talk about it):

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-contrarian-evidence-piling-up-2018-12-1027814739

Was it Buffett saying "be greedy if others are fearful"? Fear indicators are clearly on or close to all time lows (or should that be highs?). Anyway - sitting on "extreme fear".

[cyclist]

Was it Buffett saying "be greedy if others are fearful"? Fear indicators are clearly on or close to all time lows (or should that be highs?). Anyway - sitting on "extreme fear".

I think that only applies in a bull market, or for individual stocks at times such as the recent MPG low. In a bear market it is more a case of "be greedy when all around have lost hope". (Sounds like something out of LOTR)

[bull....]

nz grows at slowest pace in 5 yrs

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12180129

if it keeps slowing just makes the nz market so much more expensive next yr esp when taken relative to other markets as well.

[moka]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12178451

Lack of new NZX listings. There's been some significant merger and acquisition activity taking place in the New Zealand stock market - Restaurant Brands and Trade Me. However, if these businesses are to disappear from the NZX, what's in the pipeline to replace them?
The initial public offerings (IPOs) have been scarce at best, with the last notable listings being Oceania Healthcare (OCA) in May 2017 and New Zealand King Salmon (NZK) back in October 2016 = one listing per year.

[bull....]

nz markets sitting on support now , held 5 times now. when it breaks down should see a bit of catch up action with other markets i reckon

[Bjauck]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12178451

Lack of new NZX listings. There's been some significant merger and acquisition activity taking place in the New Zealand stock market - Restaurant Brands and Trade Me. However, if these businesses are to disappear from the NZX, what's in the pipeline to replace them?
The initial public offerings (IPOs) have been scarce at best, with the last notable listings being Oceania Healthcare (OCA) in May 2017 and New Zealand King Salmon (NZK) back in October 2016 = one listing per year.
Some NZX listed companies end up decamping to the ASX anyway. Perhaps those NZ businesses who may have otherwise listed on the NZX are seeking funding from private equity funds and/or may then go straight to an Australian IPO with listing on the ASX.

NZ has become a low wage country in an economy increasingly owned and controlled by overseas concerns. I presume these overseas concern see NZ as a low-cost stable environment in which they can extract good profits from the work of their NZ staff.

Increasingly, Instead of investing in shares and business, NZ households have invested their assets into residential land, from which they have had good after-tax returns. To the relatively minor extent that households have super/KiwiSaver funds, only a small percentage gets invested through the NZX.

Low wage economy:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=12172282 (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=12172282)

[BlackPeter]

Some NZX listed companies end up decamping to the ASX anyway. Perhaps those NZ businesses who may have otherwise listed on the NZX are seeking funding from private equity funds and/or may then go straight to an Australian IPO with listing on the ASX.

NZ has become a low wage country in an economy increasingly owned and controlled by overseas concerns. I presume these overseas concern see NZ as a low-cost stable environment in which they can extract good profits from the work of their NZ staff.

Increasingly, Instead of investing in shares and business, NZ households have invested their assets into residential land, from which they have had good after-tax returns. To the relatively minor extent that households have super/KiwiSaver funds, only a small percentage gets invested through the NZX.

Low wage economy:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=12172282 (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=12172282)

Why let a good story be spoiled by the facts?

New Zealands averge annual household income is sitting on place 24 out of 79 ranked countries according to https://www.worlddata.info/average-income.php (i.e. well above the median);

Hi tech and high wage countries like e.g. France, Israel and South Korea do have a lower annual income like New Zealand. Actually the expensive UK has an average income of just 4% above NZ. Nobody calls these other countries "low wage". New Zealand a low wage country? Maybe time to remove the ideological blinkers?


"To the relatively minor extent that households have super/KiwiSaver funds":

End of 2017 we had in NZ nearly $34b in Kiwi saver funds. That's roughly $10,000 for every grown up New Zealander. Given that the schema is not yet that long around would I think this is a quite substantial sum.

https://fma.govt.nz/assets/Reports/FMA-KiwiSaver-Report-2017.pdf

Obviously - many poeople (like me and I suppose you and most of the other posters here) do have substantially more shares outside of their Kiwi saver account than inside. Do these invetments not count?

Is this what you call "to a relative minor extent"?

[winner69]

BP

Facts - that FMA report you linked says KiwiSaver assets invested is $40.8 billion (not $34 billion you mentioned)

[BlackPeter]

BP

Facts - that FMA report you linked says KiwiSaver assets invested is $40.8 billion (not $34 billion you mentioned)

You are right. I took the starting balance on page 17, but this is obviously the savings total at end of 2016!
Mea culpa ... Kiwis saving that fast that I can't keep track ;):

[Bjauck]

Why let a good story be spoiled by the facts?

New Zealands averge annual household income is sitting on place 24 out of 79 ranked countries according to https://www.worlddata.info/average-income.php (i.e. well above the median);

Hi tech and high wage countries like e.g. France, Israel and South Korea do have a lower annual income like New Zealand. Actually the expensive UK has an average income of just 4% above NZ. Nobody calls these other countries "low wage". New Zealand a low wage country? Maybe time to remove the ideological blinkers?


"To the relatively minor extent that households have super/KiwiSaver funds":

End of 2017 we had in NZ nearly $34b in Kiwi saver funds. That's roughly $10,000 for every grown up New Zealander. Given that the schema is not yet that long around would I think this is a quite substantial sum.

https://fma.govt.nz/assets/Reports/FMA-KiwiSaver-Report-2017.pdf

Obviously - many poeople (like me and I suppose you and most of the other posters here) do have substantially more shares outside of their Kiwi saver account than inside. Do these invetments not count?

Is this what you call "to a relative minor extent"? NZ still has a relatively small amount in superannuation because it was late in introducing KiwiSaver. Also KiwiSaver has a capped incentive, which given current tax settings will have limited appeal in enticing higher earners away from real estate investment. The incentive to sign up to KiwiSaver, the lack of compulsion and the ability to withdraw money for home purchases and hardship, make it a weak superannuation scheme.

Investments outside KiwiSaver do count....but in actual terms and as a proportion of household wealth we have much less invested in share market assets compared to Australia, the UK and many other OECD members.

The low-wage economy is not limited to NZ. We should also look to see who owns the nations assets, trends in after-tax income distribution, how the wealth of a nation is shared and what the trends in ownership are. R&D funding and Under-investment and Productivity issues are not limited to NZ.

What ideology do you think blinkers me? Last election I indeed party-voted TOP (a party which got up many noses I know) and several elections ago I supported ACT. I have also voted Nats and Lab. I also make mistakes and have changed opinion when circumstances change or when I realise I was wrong. Don’t you?

[BlackPeter]

NZ still has a relatively small amount in superannuation because it was late in introducing KiwiSaver. Also KiwiSaver has a capped incentive, which given current tax settings will have limited appeal in enticing higher earners away from real estate investment. The incentive to sign up to KiwiSaver, the lack of compulsion and the ability to withdraw money for home purchases and hardship, make it a weak superannuation scheme.


Well, yes. Other countries do have different superannuation saving schemes. They all do have drawbacks as well as benefits compared to our scheme. Whether they are "stronger" is a question of definition and personal preferrence.

While there is no schema which could not be improved by tweaking - I think that the NZ system is a good compromise.

It certainly was progress compared to having no KiwiSaver.



Investments outside KiwiSaver do count....but in actual terms and as a proportion of household wealth we have much less invested in share market assets compared to Australia, the UK and many other OECD members.


Sure ... I was only surprised by your original choice of attributes ...



The low-wage economy is not limited to NZ. We should also look to see who owns the nations assets, trends in after-tax income distribution, how the wealth of a nation is shared and what the trends in ownership are. R&D funding and Under-investment and Productivity issues are not limited to NZ.


So - given that NZ is somewhere in the top 30 percent in terms in income in the list of countires I referred to (but looking into all countries probably more in the top 10% - are you saying all or nearly all countries are "low-wage"? Before we continue this discussion, maybe you should define what you mean with a fair or high wage economy, where it exists and how the respective countries fare ...



What ideology do you think blinkers me?

Calling a country "low-wage" which is in comparison to other countries in the upper third with its income levels is clearly misleading. I assumed it might be ideology (the fairy tale of poor workers, bad employers and greedy corporates) misleading you, but if its not ideology - tell us, what else is blinkering you to make this statement?

[Bjauck]

While there is no schema which could not be improved by tweaking - I think that the NZ system is a good compromise. Better than no savings scheme..probably. Although I think since KiwiSaver introduction a more tax efficient way to accumulate the nest egg has still been the traditional kiwi leveraged residential real estate and investor residential real estate for those who can afford it.




Calling a country "low-wage" which is in comparison to other countries in the upper third with its income levels is clearly misleading. I assumed it might be ideology (the fairy tale of poor workers, bad employers and greedy corporates) misleading you, but if its not ideology - tell us, what else is blinkering you to make this statement? What are the definitions?
Can a country have a higher position as far as salaries are concerned but a lower position as far as wages are concerned? (Managers tending to earn salaries; junior staff tending to earn wages)

Ah statistics....Do we look at average income or median income? Do we look at income in usd at current fluctuating exchange rates or purchasing power parities taking into account what the after taxes income in USD actually buys (such as housing/rent/food) in the various countries? At what stage in each nation does family income have to be supplemented by benefits and welfare? Of course the amount of welfare provided is a political question. A complex area indeed.

If NZ is an above average income country (in USD terms) but it is also above average in cost of living (especially in accommodation costs) then in ppp terms the median wage-earner may be in a much worse position than simple average USD figures may otherwise indicate.

As for being “ideologically blinkered”, you were the one who made the claim. Unless it was just a general put-down, presumably you thought I was “blinkered” by a particular ideology. Which one or ones? I accept I am not an expert in economics or current statistics.

I own NZ shares so I am not averse to companies making profits. However my concern is that NZ equity is channeled more into real estate than into companies and businesses....to the extent that employee productivity is low and under-capitalised. Also the lack of priority for investment into business and company equities may mean we may be at risk of being unable to sustain a diversified stock exchange as companies relocate to the ASX or are taken over by overseas concerns?

[bull....]

my kiwisaver balance has just declined for the first time in 10 years :ohmy:

[Jay]

Mine probably has a little as well, don't really keep much track of it, regular contributions going in from salary (so $ cost averaging) and still about 10 years to run so do not watch it closely at present. have thought about switching fund type, but by the time have thought about it probably most of the decline already happened, then miss a significant portion of the next leg up as well!

[moka]

Milford Kiwisaver fell in December quarter, see below. Still a good performer though. The Active Growth Fund has delivered a net benefit in excess of $30,000 for a typical investor on a seven-year basis. This is over 45% more return after fees and tax than the second-highest performing fund.


Conservative Fund
Balanced Fund
Active Growth Fund^
-0.80%
-5.3%
-7.1%

[moka]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12186232
This year is already shaping up to be a big one for New Zealand mergers and acquisitions, with $3.5 billion in value set to be wiped off the local sharemarket (subject to takeover approval), JBWere said. They estimate about $1.5 billion in value was wiped from the NZX following successful takeovers in 2018. The only listing over the year was QEX listing in February, which subsequently migrated to the Main Board in September.
JBWere said foreign ownership of New Zealand-listed stocks rose by 1 per cent to 39 per cent last year - the highest point since 2007. Foreign ownership of New Zealand equities has fluctuated from 44 per cent in 2005 to as low 2 2 per cent over 2014 and 2015. The aggregated offshore ownership level included Australian investors owning about 16 per cent of the total float of the S&P/NZX All Index.

[Jaa]

Milford Kiwisaver fell in December quarter, see below. Still a good performer though. The Active Growth Fund has delivered a net benefit in excess of $30,000 for a typical investor on a seven-year basis. This is over 45% more return after fees and tax than the second-highest performing fund.


Conservative Fund
Balanced Fund
Active Growth Fund^
-0.80%
-5.3%
-7.1%



I left Milford's KS and their so called "active growth fund" after it started looking less "active" with some of the top 5 holdings simply being ETFs. That and the fact the FMA caught one of their traders manipulating share prices. After repeated correspondence Milford refused to acknowledge that any wrongdoing had occurred despite paying a $1.5m fine. The trader is still a shareholder. A pity as I had been a big fan in part because they invest in NZ and advocated for better NZ corporate governance.

I moved to Superlife whose fees are less than half of Milford's and allows you to select what ETFs you want directly. Split my funds:

50% to NZ mid cap ETF
25% to APAC ETF
25% to Emerging markets ETF

So far am about even for the last 11 months but would have done better in the US 500 ETF or Total World ETF. Early days still and always nice to have some overseas exposure to balance the NZ assets.

Always been a firm believer too that Kiwisaver exists in part to invest in NZ, build NZ capital markets, companies and NZ Inc's wealth.

[Lego_Man]

I left Milford's KS and their so called "active growth fund" after it started looking less "active" with some of the top 5 holdings simply being ETFs. That and the fact the FMA caught one of their traders manipulating share prices. After repeated correspondence Milford refused to acknowledge that any wrongdoing had occurred despite paying a $1.5m fine. The trader is still a shareholder. A pity as I had been a big fan in part because they invest in NZ and advocated for better NZ corporate governance.

I moved to Superlife whose fees are less than half of Milford's and allows you to select what ETFs you want directly. Split my funds:

50% to NZ mid cap ETF
25% to APAC ETF
25% to Emerging markets ETF

So far am about even for the last 11 months but would have done better in the US 500 ETF or Total World ETF. Early days still and always nice to have some overseas exposure to balance the NZ assets.

Always been a firm believer too that Kiwisaver exists in part to invest in NZ, build NZ capital markets, companies and NZ Inc's wealth.


Problem is, the Kiwi stockmarket is dying. There is no flow of decent new listings to replace the natural attrition, and the market is becoming less and less diversified.

Kiwisaver is effectively contributing to this by mandating a low fee passive approach, which isn't going to broaden capital market access for businesses as there are fewer fund managers to sift through and allocate capital to those fledgling businesses.

The function of Kiwisaver now is to goose up the returns of the dwindling number of stocks, by providing a price-insensitive buyer of these stocks at all times.

[Lewylewylewy]

Great, isn't it?

[bull....]

milford growth down over 7%
fisher funds down over 7%
harbour down over 10%
pie down over 7%

to name a few growth funds and theres many more , all over the last 3 mths. just goes to show what a terrible 3 mth period it was for the markets and peoples kiwisaver a/c

[winner69]

milford growth down over 7%
fisher funds down over 7%
harbour down over 10%
pie down over 7%

to name a few growth funds and theres many more , all over the last 3 mths. just goes to show what a terrible 3 mth period it was for the markets and peoples kiwisaver a/c

Just as well all down about the same ...no real under performers eh

[moka]

I left Milford's KS and their so called "active growth fund" after it started looking less "active" with some of the top 5 holdings simply being ETFs.
Yes, I was surprised to see Milford was getting into ETFs.
Very interesting to see that the returns since inception for different Milford Kiwisaver funds are so similar. I would have expected the Conservative to be much less than the Active Growth. I note that in November Milford said it had dialled down risk by using derivatives to protect portfolios from the worst of market declines.




Milford Kiwisaver @ 31/12/18
1 year
3 year
5 year
Since inception


Conservative Fund
Balanced Fund
Active Growth Fund
2.38%
0.49%
1.62%
5.88%
6.60%
7.65%
7.95%
8.88%
10.29%
9.04%
9.55%
12.18%

[Lego_Man]

Yes, I was surprised to see Milford was getting into ETFs.



Size. All their outperformance was generated when the fund was sub-500m and able to take meaningfully idiosyncratic ideas.

The larger a fund gets, the more it will approximate an ETF, especially in a small market like NZ.

[winner69]

Jack Bogle the father of Index funds has died

That’s sad

[peat]

Totally blowing my trumpet here and posting my prediction of the NZX50 back from the end of October last year when we were all in the depths of despair

10272

And now nearly 3 months later it pretty much has happened except insomuch as the b wave was more of a triangle than expected

10273

so what do I think now


https://media.giphy.com/media/Z1LYiyIPhnG9O/giphy.gif

[bull....]

nz markets sitting on support now , held 5 times now. when it breaks down should see a bit of catch up action with other markets i reckon

that support provided good gains , probably in peat camp now looking for some downside

[peat]

that support provided good gains , probably in peat camp now looking for some downside

to clarify, I'm not wanting downside as such, i still am invested in some NZ shares, and have no index shorts or similar, but am better prepared for it as I do consider it a real possibility at this point. I have sold VHP holding y'day and AIR today.