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Phaedrus
04-06-2009, 12:13 PM
It will take a 53% rise from current levels for the NZSX50 to regain its 2007 peaks. I am pleased to be able to report that this will happen at 2.15 pm on 19/12/2011.

Naturally, such a confident assertion rests on a couple of minor assumptions :-
(1) The bottom of the Bear market was reached on 3/3/09.
(2) The subsequent recovery will be at the usual 20% per annum.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZSX5064.gif

Placebo
04-06-2009, 12:40 PM
Phaedrus, thanks for this. Can you give me the time it will be reached? I want to place my sell orders now and pre-book the debt-financed holiday.

:D

Phaedrus
04-06-2009, 12:43 PM
2.15pm, Placebo. I've already told you this. Pay attention!

Footsie
04-06-2009, 01:03 PM
Ahhh Phaedrus

you make me laugh

I can see you at home now.....waiting for all the TA cyncis to take the bait.

Stranger_Danger
04-06-2009, 01:16 PM
Phaedrus.

I can't figure this out. If TA is able to predict an exact time of 2.15pm which falls during daylight savings, how do things change if the Government were to alter the daylight savings legislation between now and then and what your chart says is 2.15 isn't actually 2.15 when 2.15 arrives?

I can't see how your chart can account for this possibility, so surely the whole thing is flawed? I'm calling Warren!

Dr_Who
04-06-2009, 02:20 PM
Working are for those that dont know Phaedrus and those that dont fish. :p;)

Phaedrus
04-06-2009, 03:41 PM
Stranger-Danger. In actual fact, 2.15pm is only an estimate - a "best guess" if you like. The 4332 target could be hit anywhere between 1.12pm and 3.18pm. On balance, though, the probability is around 2.15pm. Any variance caused by daylight savings would not move us outside the predicted time range, so there is not a lot of point trying to factor it into the calculation. The figures as quoted are accurate enough for most purposes.

wbosher
04-06-2009, 04:03 PM
Phaedrus, thanks for this. Can you give me the time it will be reached? I want to place my sell orders now and pre-book the debt-financed holiday.

:D

I'm with you. I'll take out another mortgage on the house and pour it all into the market, not too sure which stocks yet but I've got some time to figure that one out.

I might set my sell order for 1pm to avoid the rush though. It's gonna be a great Chistmas in 2011!!! :D

pedro.nz
04-06-2009, 04:48 PM
Ah, but how many of you have actually checked to see if 19/12/2011 is a trading day;)

winner69
04-06-2009, 06:27 PM
I'm with you. I'll take out another mortgage on the house and pour it all into the market, not too sure which stocks yet but I've got some time to figure that one out.

I might set my sell order for 1pm to avoid the rush though. It's gonna be a great Chistmas in 2011!!! :D

At 20% pa guaranteed why bother trying to sort out what stocks to buy .... just go and get some FNZ which tracks the index .... cheaper in the long run probably ... and yes 20% pa guaranteed for the next 2 years ....

Hoop
04-06-2009, 07:32 PM
Hmmmmm seems like a "buy and hold" strategy is required.....;)

ooops !!!:eek: did i say that dirty word "buy and hold".

dumbass
04-06-2009, 08:00 PM
Just putting a balanced perspective on things , i see a new high around 961.234 on the SP 500 and then a downleg next thursday.
It will then be referred too in future economic's texts as 'Turd Thursday',the day the markets crashed.


http://iforce.co.nz/i/uzugd4kf.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

Corporate
04-06-2009, 08:04 PM
Just putting a balanced perspective on things , i see a new high around 961.234 on the SP 500 and then a downleg next thursday.
It will then be referred too in future economic's texts as 'Turd Thursday',the day the markets crashed.


http://iforce.co.nz/i/ijincsg1.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)


Dumbass - can you explain how you come up with your prediction of 'Turd Thursday'?

dumbass
04-06-2009, 08:10 PM
it was the only day of the week that rhymed with turd apart from tuesday.

Xerof
04-06-2009, 08:18 PM
Wave 5 of 5 of C

Is that the end of a Wave 2 on your count DA?

dumbass
04-06-2009, 08:25 PM
i've got it pegged as a wave B.

dumbass
04-06-2009, 08:28 PM
hey i hope nobody is taking the chart too seriously because it could be on the Friday.

Dr_Who
05-06-2009, 07:02 AM
hey i hope nobody is taking the chart too seriously because it could be on the Friday.

Whats? Now you tell me, I ve just leveraged my house 80x using CFD... LOL :p:p

Placebo
05-06-2009, 08:10 AM
I'm with you. I'll take out another mortgage on the house and pour it all into the market, not too sure which stocks yet but I've got some time to figure that one out.

I might set my sell order for 1pm to avoid the rush though. It's gonna be a great Chistmas in 2011!!! :D

Winner stole my response, but I'll go one better. Sell your house, take the cash and give it all to a KiwiSaver fund manager.

That way you are guaranteed of making at least one person rich (clue: it won't be you ;))

wbosher
05-06-2009, 08:21 AM
Hmmm, might have trouble explaining the "we're homeless, honey" part to the wife. :eek:

Hoop
05-06-2009, 08:36 AM
wbosher Hmmm, might have trouble explaining the "we're homeless, honey" part to the wife. :eek:

no trouble!! ...after uttering those 3 words there's a great chance she won't be your wife anymore.;)

Life is all to do with mathematical probabilities

wbosher
05-06-2009, 08:43 AM
no trouble!! ...after uttering those 3 words there's a great chance she won't be your wife anymore.;)

Life is all to do with mathematical probabilities

I think I should probably go with my original plan. ;)

Dr_Who
05-06-2009, 09:09 AM
wbosher Hmmm, might have trouble explaining the "we're homeless, honey" part to the wife. :eek:

no trouble!! ...after uttering those 3 words there's a great chance she won't be your wife anymore.;)




If only life was so simple, a few of us here may even think about the possibilities. ;)

Placebo
05-06-2009, 10:49 AM
I just had a really frightening thought... what if Phaedrus turns out to be right!!

wbosher
05-06-2009, 10:53 AM
I just had a really frightening thought... what if Phaedrus turns out to be right!!


All the TA doubters will have to bow at his knees. He can give up trading and make a living as a fortune teller. ;)

dumbass
07-06-2009, 07:51 PM
Dumbass - can you explain how you come up with your prediction of 'Turd Thursday'?


here goes in a brief summary

Since the March low the market has rallied for three months and has gained 43% during this period. I also noted that there would be claims of a new bull market, bullish sentiment would reach bull market levels, and the Nasdaq (+47%) would likely lead. The market is now approaching those targets as the SP 500 hit 958 on friday. With most of the gains already in the books it's time to start looking for signs of an end to this uptrend. When Primary wave B does conclude, a declining Primary wave C will take the market back to the March lows, or even lower. This bear market is not over yet.
Long term pivots have halted every uptrend of this entire bear market. Should this market get significantly above 961, the next long term pivot is not until SPX 1041. Another characteristic of this bear market is that every uptrend but one ended on a negative RSI divergence on the weekly charts. We now have a negative RSI divergence in place. In fact, there are also negative RSI divergences on every time frame.


http://iforce.co.nz/i/vucqubct.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)


http://iforce.co.nz/i/gl41d5yp.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)


http://iforce.co.nz/i/21a2eykf.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)


Below friday's close at SP500 940, there are two levels of importance: SP 912 and SP 876. A decline below SP 912 would likely indicate that the uptrend has ended. A decline below SPX 876 would nearly assure it.

my feeling is we could have a blow off top around 1014- 1040 if this 5th wave extends but certainly top could be very close.

Phaedrus
30-06-2009, 03:27 PM
Today the NZSX50 formed a "Golden Cross". This is a Bullish event, formed when a 50 day moving average crosses above a 200 day moving average. Statistically, these are typically followed by a 19.2% pa rise as plotted below. This puts us right on target for our 19/12/2011 date to regain the highs of 2007.
Nice confirmation eh?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZSX630.gif

Phaedrus
30-06-2009, 09:11 PM
It is, of course, a little bit of a "stitch-up" Belg, in that the average post-"Golden Cross" rise of 19.2% pa is derived from S&P500 statistics. I don't have data on any NZ indices that go back that far, but the figure here should be roughly comparable.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZSX630.gif

macduffy
01-07-2009, 07:35 AM
Let's hope that the usual 30 June window dressing isn't giving us a "false " reading here.

;)

Placebo
13-08-2009, 01:05 PM
OMG. I am REALLY watching this one.

My image of Phaedrus is changing. I have a vision of him as a gap-toothed hag in a darkened tent, black cat at her feet, wearing a bandanna and cloak and poring over her tarot cards and crystal ball, cackling softly... :)

Phaedrus
13-08-2009, 02:13 PM
With the NZSX over 3100 today, it must be far less than 19% PA rise needed now.Yes, an average of only 15.7% is all it will take now. As time passes, it gets easier and easier.

I know that things look really good right now and I don't want to crush your ebullient youthful spirits, but you guys do know all about reversion to the mean - don't you?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZSX813.gif

Placebo
14-08-2009, 10:00 AM
Yes of course. But being investors we also understand what irrational exuberance is all about too.

I know I don't have to remind you, Phaedrus, that the market is as much (or more so) about human behaviour and emotion as it is about rational business decisions, and people are inclined to leap aboard runaway trains when they see them.

My question is, what (or who) is driving the train?

moimoi
14-08-2009, 10:27 AM
LOL at your avatar Placebo....pure class ;-)

Phaedrus
08-10-2009, 10:48 AM
Are we still in the ballpark Mr P?Yes we are - but only just. Play has strayed right over to the sideline and a return to midfield should be expected before too long if the previous game is anything to go by. So far, the resemblance has been...... uncanny.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZSXf108.gif

Phaedrus
09-10-2009, 11:46 AM
To me, that chart was quite intriguing and I am surprised and disappointed at the absence of any feedback. No comments, no scepticism, no approval, no abuse, no surprise, no disagreement, no thanks, no argument, no discussion, no sarcasm, no humour.... nothing. And yet, that post has been read by hundreds of people. I wonder why I bother!

Maybe the total lack of interest is because this involves an Index rather than a stock.
Maybe I didn't make my point clearly enough.
Maybe no-one even noticed the pale yellow lines - let alone appreciated their import.
Maybe readers here are not interested in the "big picture".

I feel that this topic is worth one last shot before I give up, so starting again..... "Deja vu" is a feeling that one has witnessed a new situation previously, as though an event has already happened before, in the recent past. Quite by accident I stumbled across the fact that the current market uptrend bears a striking resemblance to that of 5 years ago. I have marked earlier market reversal levels and almost without exception these are repeated in the current market with astonishing precision. Isn't that Spooky, Possums? This even extends to minor points as marked by small arrows and dotted lines. The only exception that I can see is marked by light blue arrows, where the resistance/support didn't make it all the way across. I attribute this to unusual sunspot activity at around that time. (Joke).

This is all a bit unsettling for me. You see, I have never believed that Support and Resistance levels were very useful concepts when applied to Indices. I utilise Support and Resistance levels extensively with stocks but have never been able to conceive of a rationale that would apply to composite entities such as Indices.

Now, here are the big questions :-
(1) Can this extraordinary state of affairs continue?
(2) Will the market again reverse at 3240?
(3) Can we then expect a repeat 10% (330 point) correction?
(4) Will the market again find Support at 2900? (A nice round figure)
(5) At this stage of my life, can I embrace the Dark Side?
(6) Does anyone care?

I suspect the answer may be NO to all.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZSX50sr109.gif

Walfootrot
09-10-2009, 12:13 PM
Hi Phaedrus- i'm sorry that no one has replied to your comments. I found the chart very interesting. Please keep contributing - folks are watching your comments.

Let me ask you a question- did you sell your stocks at the market peak of 4800 in 2007 and buy back again in March 2009 at 2450? In other word does tracking of indices determine your investment strategy totally or are their other factors you take into account?

I personally find charts to be a useful tool for "setting the scene" i.e. does the market appear to be generally over/under priced are we in an uptrend/down trend- together with other factors- what is the state of the global/local economy- how confident are investors feeling etc. My specific buying pattern works within this scene setting by a detailed study of the entity I intend buying into or selling out of.

What I find hardest to do is to get into the minds of company directors- what are their strategies and are they winning strategies- XRO vs PGW for example.

macduffy
09-10-2009, 12:23 PM
Hi Phaedrus.

Re question 6, the answer is an emphatic "YES".

I don't have answers to the other questions although I suspect that history never repeats exactly. Meanwhile, your charts and interpretations continue to enlighten us all. Much appreciated!

:)

buns
09-10-2009, 12:31 PM
Random view.

Is the 3250 point any reflection on the awareness to hedge for inflation, i.e people move away from the NZX looking for commodities. It would be quite interesting to see if the ASX stays flat or even rises through this period.

Romer
09-10-2009, 12:36 PM
Hey Phaedrus. DO keep up the posts. I find your analysis fascinating and must acknowledge that some of your sayings have become entrenched in my investment strategies.
I sold up everything on 25 September as I wanted to lock in some very healthy gains and I kind of needed a break from stock-watching. Now of course the question is "when to re-enter?" - - - I am thinking I will be looking out for that dark green line to be hit.
Thanks again for your erudite posts. Keep up the good work!!!!

Hoop
09-10-2009, 01:20 PM
Phaedrus...I know the feeling...lack of responses to my posts on the Bottom or bear rally (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6769&page=55)thread dealing with the same chartology methods.

Yep P your ? ? ? are close to where my NZX50 bull market correction due point is (3180)...As turning points happen at S&R points., there is a good chance 3250 is it....so caution is needed at these levels.

EDIT: 3400 is the next H&S point if 3250 doesn't deliver.

Other Bull market correction due points as mentioned by me on the Bottom or Bear rally? thread
DOW 10350
All Ords 4666



Phaedrus quote..."I attribute this to unusual sunspot activity at around that time. (Joke)...."

As Charts are a photo-record of investor group behaviour ...any outside effects affecting the behaviour of a group will show up on the charts.

Sun spots??? don't discount it.... EDIT Hirshleifer and Shumway (2001) finds that stock returns tend to
be higher on sunny days, most likely because sunshine induces optimistic behavior.*

Much research ( including investment research) has been done on the effects of the moon to animal (including Human) behaviour *

* Lunar cycles effects on Stock returns University of Michigen Business School Aug 2001 (http://www.fep.up.pt/disciplinas/ce726/Lunar%20Cycles.pdf) PDF file

sharer
09-10-2009, 02:11 PM
As Yankiwi mentioned: "... (yes I've clicked on the "add to reputation" icon on so many of your posts, it wont let me add to yours anymore) :rolleyes: "
Me too! There's obviously some sort of conspiracy afoot. After all, if too many of us acheive enlightenment from studying alongside Phaedrus the whole capitalist system could collapse (again).
Seriously Phaedrus, the first thing i do at logon is scan all the thread folders to see if you have another post up for contemplation. If so, i contemplate for a bit before moving over to login to DB trading. Like so many of the other shy newbies young & old here who are benefiting from your contributions, the only reason for a lack of discussion in reply is simple ignorance (in my case) & not wanting to add too much to the background noise. Should add straight away how much i appreciate also those like Hoop just now who do have the ability to contribute on the topic.
Meanwhile my largely instinctual approach has made me a bit risk averse lately, & more inclined to cash in a few chips here & there. When i see a new Phaedrus chart with all those red queries all over the index ahead, it does make me nervous!

Jay
09-10-2009, 02:52 PM
Hi Phaedrus
Thanks again for your posts
This "joke" of predicting the NZX50 has come to be very interesting.
Re support and ressitance on indicies, would you normally look back 4-5 years on a stock and if not is the long term index S & R's then going to help determine whether you are going to enter a trade

Thoughts anyone

Footsie
09-10-2009, 03:45 PM
I think a bull market correction is coming... 10% looks about right.
as does 3240 target back to 2,900

but then again, it might be a bit early in the bull market for a 10% correction, yuo might only get 5%

scamper
09-10-2009, 04:00 PM
Sir P,
no to 5, yes to 6, and i have to 'spread some reputation around' before i add more to yours. scamper's university papers means that eyes are mostly off the ball, so i haven't taken sensible precautions or grabbed opportunities this year -- all a bit sad really...
Anyway, thanks for the posts. cheers from scamper.

Phaedrus
09-10-2009, 09:08 PM
Hi Phaedrus - did you sell your stocks at the market peak of 4800 (?) in 2007 and buy back again in March 2009 at 2450? In other word does tracking of indices determine your investment strategy totally or are their other factors you take into account?Wal, the philosophy behind my Index monitoring systems was exhaustively discussed here. (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=158715) My approach has been tuned and refined over the years, but in essence it remains the same as explained in that old post from 2007. There is further explanation in post #8 and others on that same thread. Did I keep to my system? Yes.

The NZSX50 peaked at 4333 and it had fallen to 4071 before most of my exit indicators were triggered. Similarly, the market bottomed at 2418 in March, but had risen to around 2600 by the time most of my "re-enter the market" indicators had fired. I did indulge in a few short-term trades on the way down, though, with mixed success. Many of my old charts have been bumped from the system but I am able to re-post any that are of particular interest to anybody. Just ask.

Yankiwi, if it hadn't been for your query I would never have stumbled across this interesting situation. I am sorry if you felt targeted by my rant - believe me that was never my intention and I apologise whole-heartedly if I have offended you in any way at all. My beef was with the lousy 250:1 reader/contributor ratio. There are too many overly shy lurkers here I reckon!

Thanks for the support, people. I appreciate it.

Hoop
10-10-2009, 12:09 AM
Another interesting question (for me anyway :) )....
Q....How strong are these R&S lines,...some just don't work???
A....When I have doubts about R&S especially in 2008 crash times when a resistance line seemed like it never existed...I compared these R&S lines with other R&S systems. One of the best is the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Charting System. This system is a better measure of Resistance and Support as it is multidimensional... not just a simple drawn 2 D line on a chart that most of us use here on ST.

The NZX50 chart below may seem complex but when looking at it for the first time remember to keep it simple by remembering 2 things that are the topic of this Sharetrader (ST) thread
1... looking for powerful R&S lines using Ichi as a reference
2... Looking for a future change in a trend (e.g when could a possible correction occur).

OK ...for our two goals and keeping it ultra-simple we will ignore several bits of information on the chart including the green and the single red line...no worries.
Also remember the inside of the kumo (cloud) is resistance and/or support

Looking for powerful R&S lines..the most obvious one is the 2750 in July 2009 ..see how the index bounces up off the bottom of the Kumo (shaded green). when we see the bounce + there was a similar action at this 2750 at the beginning of 2009 we know that R&S 2750 line is huge.
Another R&S level which is of interest is the 3378 line which is not far away now....it was powerful back in Aug/Sept 2008. Is it powerful now? we will know when it happens. 3600 could be another to watch in the future. Also note that new R&S levels can be formed.

When will there be a possible trend change? Notice how the Kumo extends past today into November 2009. The Kumo expands and contracts with volatility of the index. The thicker the kumo the greater the Resistance ad Support it provides..when the Kumo becomes very thin to the point that it may twist ( e.g red to green...green to red) at this point the Kumo (or lack of) offers the least support and could result in a trend change....downwards in this case.

See from the chart when the index is above the kumo it falls when the Kumo is thin

At this moment notice how the index is not far above the Kumo..also note that within a month that kumo will be not be as thick and with the index a lot nearer the kumo this time increases the chance that any selling pressure maybe enough to cause a downtrend change pulling the index down back into the Kumo to test its weak thin bottom support...If the index falls below the Kumo ..the kumo becomes a resistance object.


Using Ichimoku in conjunction with Phaedrus chart using R&S lines the 2 different principles confirm with each other that this is a time that an investor should be cautious and alert.


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX50208102009.png

lissica
10-10-2009, 05:30 AM
My beef was with the lousy 250:1 reader/contributor ratio. There are too many overly shy lurkers here I reckon!


Lurker delurking here.

I read the forums daily, and I find your posts informative and useful in my decision making.

Having said that, I like being environmentally conscious about what I write. Too many pixels are wasted on useless comments ^_^

I try to post when I have something to say...which is rarely.

If the NZX50 hits 4300 on 19 Dec 2011 I'll send you a Xmas present and a few sacrificial goats your way.

bull....
10-10-2009, 07:54 AM
Nzx is still one of the worst performers on a return basis over the last 6 months does this mean we have a better chance of better returns going ahead to catch up with the rest or does this mean we will plunge quicker when the rest do?

kizame
10-10-2009, 08:07 AM
Pheadras,your posts are brilliant and have taught me heaps.

Over the last few years I have learned through you,regarding TA, to 'Keep It Simple' which is what I adhere to now,you are a great teacher with too much bloody time on his hands haha.
But seriously,you put a lot of time and effort into demonstrating the principles that Probably keep you profitable,ha.
The fact that so many people view your posts,must be uplifting even if they don't comment.

kizame
10-10-2009, 08:10 AM
Hoop,perhaps you could explain what all the colour coded lines are on your chart,I am presuming the red thin line is the nzx50? Much abliged.

Phaedrus
10-10-2009, 08:41 AM
Hoop, when (if!) you do this, it would be good to start your chart at the beginning of 2004. Then we can directly compare the Ichimoku plots of this uptrend with those of the last one.

Hoop
10-10-2009, 10:52 AM
Hoop,perhaps you could explain what all the colour coded lines are on your chart,I am presuming the red thin line is the nzx50? Much abliged.

Hi Kizame
nah..the red thin line is the kijun-sen
......the blue line is the tenkan-sen
these are momentum indicators...basically speaking a buy signal is produced when the tenkan-sen line crosses over above the Kijun-sen line a especially strong buy signal if the cross happens above the kumo (cloud) and vice versa.

The kumo (shaded area) boundary lines called Senkou Span A (red) and Senkou Span B (green)

Note that the Kumo extends into November 2009. At the top of the chart you will see (9, 26, 52) these figures are the periods used in the calculations. The kumo extend 26 periods into the future. Each day is a period except Sunday..so 6 periods = 1 week ..26 periods = 4weeks 2 days.

......the individual green line is the chikou span. This is used as an trend indicator. with reference to the NZX50 chart the index trend is deemed upward when the chikou span is located above the closing price and vice versa. You watch the chikou span to cross below the closing figure as a signal that the index trend is weakening.

The NZX50 index line is the bolder red/black line (black rising / red falling).
Yeah I know rather hard to distinguish those lines ..maybe Stockchart.com may do something about it in the future.

Kizame my Ichimoku knowledge is limited to what i use it for ..so very basic.
I suggest if you are interested to increase your knowledge further about this "Japanese one stop shop TA system", you get in contact with Peat or Arco who do trading using this system (see ST forex--IchiMoku magic thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=4326)). I'm sure they will answer your questions if you ask nicely :).

There is plenty of literature around ...just google.

PS...yes.. I had to look up the names to spell them properly for this post:o

Hoop
10-10-2009, 11:23 AM
Hoop, when (if!) you do this, it would be good to start your chart at the beginning of 2004. Then we can directly compare the Ichimoku plots of this uptrend with those of the last one.

Hi Phaedrus
liked your (if!) :)

I tried last night ... being a miserable SOB that I am, I use free charts ..unfortunately it seems 3 years is all I can get out of the free version of stockcharts for the NZX50 index. Other free versions I have, have longer periods but no Ichmoku system..so I'm a bit stuck at this moment in time

....haven't given up yet..there must be a way to get a longer period. 200+ day period
If anyone out there can help just post or PM.

Phaedrus..you would not have appreciated my attempt last night I tried painting your various colour coded R&S lines onto the already cluttered Ichi chart..made it look like a dogs breakfast.

So...work in progress :cool:

kizame
10-10-2009, 11:39 AM
Thanks Hoop,the thin green line(chikon span)seems to give a nice indication of a trend change when it crosses the index line,it also forms double bottoms and tops with the index,so very interesting.

Toulouse - Luzern
10-10-2009, 03:18 PM
Hi,
Firstly thanks Phaedrus for all your posts. I believe in the TA approach you set out.

My answer to your question 6 is yes.

I use Supercharts in DB, Incredible Charts and Yahoo and OBV RSI etc
I dont know yet how to copy my charts into ST posts.

I am interested in entry point filters - how to find the stocks each day or week etc from the NZX50, ASX50 etc that have entered into an uptend ....

rgds

PS: Thanks also to all of the other ST chart posters eg Hoop - Absolute Advance ...

Hoop
10-10-2009, 06:41 PM
Thanks Hoop,the thin green line(chikon span)seems to give a nice indication of a trend change when it crosses the index line,it also forms double bottoms and tops with the index,so very interesting.

Phaedrus has put you right.... the chikou span is just the NZX50 index line set back 26 periods.


So whats the point in charting a lagging trend line (the chikou span)?
What use is it?.. apart from telling us the trend that we already know about.
Last year I asked these questions and I looked it up and learnt it.... Today I couldn't remember what I learnt last year:( and had to go hunting for my notes.


In my previous post I mentioned the crossing of the Tenkan-Sen and the Kijun-Sen giving off buy and sell signals and the position of that crossing to the Kumo to indicate the strength of those buy/sell signals....apparantly I was vague about what I didn't remember about the position of the Chikou span in relation to its NZX50 index....... which is another indicator for the strength of those buy/sell signals.

I googled this site up....Its probably better to
quote from http://www.fxstreet.com/education/technical/advanced-indicator-manual/ichimoku-kinko-hyo/
"..... Broadly, a crossing of the Tenkan Sen above the Kijun Sen is bullish and a crossing of the Tenkan Sen below the Kijun Sen is bearish.
To the positions of price against the cloud and the crossing of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen the relative position of today's price against that of 26 periods prior determines the strength of the signals. The Chikou Span (lagging span) is today's price moved back 26 periods. If the Chikou Span (today's price) is below that of 26 periods ago and a sell signal occurs, it is a stronger signal than had it been above the close of 26 periods ago. Equally the opposite is true for buy signals......"

Kizame... Hope this is a clearer understanding of what role the Chikon Span has in the scheme of things.

PS:.. Re reading my Ichi notes has helped me understand the finer more advanced details as well ...so I'm learning new ichi tricks as we're going :) including my spelling of Chikou :o

peat
10-10-2009, 10:45 PM
Theres a whole thread devoted to the IchiMoku in the forex forum and I recently posted a methodology for trading with it that I stole from the Currency Trader Magazine. of a year or so ago.


see this link for details

http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~peat/this_is_peats_webpage.htm

Hoop
11-10-2009, 10:15 AM
Theres a whole thread devoted to the IchiMoku in the forex forum and I recently posted a methodology for trading with it that I stole from the Currency Trader Magazine. of a year or so ago.


see this link for details

http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~peat/this_is_peats_webpage.htm (http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/%7Epeat/this_is_peats_webpage.htm)


Thxs Peat...much appreciated

Phaedrus
14-10-2009, 05:46 PM
Phaedrus ... if this behaviour is occuring continuously and with the surges being related to macro events... would this help explain the spooky correllation to the past?Ah, but Belg, as a mature TA exponent, I don't feel the need to offer any explanation. For me, it is enough to simply observe and perhaps utilise such interesting phenomena.

lodger
20-10-2009, 01:56 PM
Just in case some of you haven't been watching, NZSX is nudging the 3250 level (3 red ??? on Phaedrus' chart) about 3 weeks earlier than predicted.
I'm thinking about considering panicking...

Phaedrus
20-10-2009, 04:10 PM
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX1020b.gif

lodger
20-10-2009, 04:50 PM
Looks like it is still within the 17% line

Phaedrus
20-10-2009, 06:31 PM
Looks like it is still within the 17% linePretty much right on it. The Index continues to sneak along the sideline. If we keep predicting a correction, sooner or later we will be right, you mark my words!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX1020c.gif


So the pattern is broken as we've passed through the 3238?It would appear so, Belg. Of course, I never really believed..... Trouble is, the house is so full of tinned food, bottled water and sacks of rice that there is hardly any room to move. Not to mention the Krugerrands and stocks of ammunition.

Hoop
21-10-2009, 09:35 AM
The pattern you guys are talking about was never really there...just a reliance of deja vu from the bull market correction of early 2005.

The pattern you should be looking at is the major overall pattern for 2009 Bull market cycle which is the inverse head and shoulder pattern which is almost fully formed now (unusually perfect:confused:) at the 3375 area. (see Phaedrus butchered chart..sorry;):rolleyes: Phaedrus for ruining your artwork)

If this unusual perfection is achieved, this 3375 (blue line) will be the NZX50 biggest short/medium term hurdle as all completed Inverted H&S formations must end with a bull market correction.

As this level (3375) is common knowledge to chartists and the TA Target for a market correction was due at the 3200 mark ...some investors may become cautious by tightening their stops and start cashing their profits when those stops are triggered.

I am watching this 3238 mark closely..yes it has been broken but the new resistance mark has not been confirmed yet with a respected test.
This 3238 could be but not necessarily a psychological pre-empt point.

Before everyone starts panicking with the word correction e.g Lodger ... the "rule of thumb" bull market correction is 10%, comes with a short/medium term downtrend but normally doesn't break the primary uptrend. Most medium/long and long term investors will probably elect to hold and ride the correction out when it happens...On the NZX50 the average correction during the previous cyclic bull market was 10 % and the duration (downtrend from peak to trough) lasted between 2 to 3 months before the uptrend resumes and Winner69 goals are acheived....Definitely not the end of the world stuff

Note I used the word "when" and not "if". All bull markets end up getting ahead of themselves and pause to correct. Expect at least 3 corrections to happen within a Cyclic Bull market cycle...we have already had one (May June)..did anyone remember that one?

Disc: Still 87% invested

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZSX1020b.gif

jonu
21-10-2009, 10:04 AM
Another lurker delurking here Phaedrus.

While I wouldn't dare argue the more technical aspects of these index patterns, it appears pretty obvious that if most large investors/fund managers etc apply these principles when a trigger point is reached away she will go and become a self fulfilling prophecy.

I'm neither of the above and don't much envy their job of moving enormous amounts of funds around. It's a hell of a lot easier to sit on the sidelines and cherry pick with smaller amounts and hopefully pick stocks that won't necessarily be effected by the correction.

By the way has anyone thought what sector of the index might lead such a correction? In the old days you would have started with Telecom but I don't think that applies anymore. Financial? Resources? or more general?

The TA tips have been much appreciated thank you and have greatly enhanced my stock selections.

lodger
05-11-2009, 10:56 PM
Phaedrus, is it too soon for an update on the chart? My feeling is that it's still tracking scarily close to plan.

George
06-11-2009, 06:04 AM
Hi folks
Interesting thread, first time reading it, some points to make.
I follow the indexes on cmc and re yr bull market 10% correction,
there are conflicting facts to ponder.
Aus200 was down 8.2% from its high of mid Oct.
Dax down 10.88%, but US30 only down 3.9%.
Markets up this morning as I write and wondering if this is the next
leg up to possible targets of over 5,300 Aus, 11,500 US, and
7,000 Dax. This would imply a target for NZX of about 3,700.

From the start of this bull run in March, indexes have corrected
back close to their uptrend support line, altho Dax actually
went below it this week and today has moved above it again.
I used this trend line to get the figures above.
Stand to be corrected.
George

Lawso
06-11-2009, 04:44 PM
Dow to hit and exceed 10,000 again tomorrow!!

Phaedrus
11-11-2009, 08:24 AM
Still tracking within "predicted" limits, Lodger.

Looking good for the 19th!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX501111.gif

lodger
11-11-2009, 09:31 AM
Fascinating. Hurting, portfolio-wise, but nevertheless fascinating...

Phaedrus
18-01-2010, 10:21 AM
This intriguing chart was posted by W69 on the Dow thread, but its relevance here is quite remarkable.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CotD.gif

Careful examination shows us that over the last 110 years, the average market rally has been 100% in 700 trading days. This is exactly in line with the "target" increase as featured in this thread! Isn't that spooky, possums?

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX118.gif

I can now confidently predict that the current NZSX rally will peak at 4835.91 on 19/6/2012. Isn't that good to know?

This will be exactly 6 months to the day from NZSX50 regaining its 2007 peaks. It's nice finding your systems in tune with the cosmos, but too many coincidences become somewhat unnerving.

winner69
18-01-2010, 12:10 PM
Fascinating Phaedrus .... is really 'spooky possums' sort of stuff

But is it .... cosmos (your word) and/or nature seem to work in strange ways

Paul Ormerod has some interesting articles and books about the similarities of economys/markets and nature .... intriguing stuff

Arbitrage
18-01-2010, 12:20 PM
Phaedrus, Good to see you sticking your neck out on this one. There looks to be a little bit of scatter on the previous rally data. Have you considered any error limits on your predictions?

Phaedrus
18-01-2010, 01:11 PM
Phaedrus, Good to see you sticking your neck out on this one.I'm not really sticking my neck out, Arb. You will notice that I craftily refrained from giving the time of the peak.


There looks to be a little bit of scatter on the previous rally data.Aberrations all. There is but one true average. You may be one of those negative people that my astrologer warned me to avoid. She says they tarnish my aura, inhibit my creative visualisations and throw my chakras out of alignment.


Have you considered any error limits on your predictions?I don't like to focus unduly on this, but yes, I have. See the chart in post #79.

Novitiate
18-01-2010, 03:14 PM
"I'm not really sticking my neck out, Arb. You will notice that I craftily refrained from giving the time of the peak."

Thanks for this - best laugh I've had all day. :D

I have, of course, noted the date in my diary.

Footsie
18-01-2010, 04:07 PM
Phaedrus

Im not quite sure whether you are taking the mickey out of yourself or not....

Alas, you must be making quite a bit of money at present as you seem to be in a jovial mood.

Dr_Who
19-01-2010, 04:22 PM
Hey guys, good news... NZ fund managers made a return of 30% last year... *YAWN *YAWN...

NZSE have gone up 35% and they have gross 30%??? WTF?

Better to put your money in the index and pay min brokers fee.

Glendoonie
19-01-2010, 06:08 PM
Footsie, you're wondering whether he's taking the mickey? The answer is right here.

... my astrologer warned me to avoid. She says they tarnish my aura, inhibit my creative visualisations and throw my chakras out of alignment.
Phaedrus, I'll diarise the 19th too :)

777
19-01-2010, 06:14 PM
Hey guys, good news... NZ fund managers made a return of 30% last year... *YAWN *YAWN...

NZSE have gone up 35% and they have gross 30%??? WTF?

Better to put your money in the index and pay min brokers fee.


NZSE 50 31/12/08 was 2715.71.
NZSE 50 31/12/09 was 3230.15.

Increase 18.94%

I think it depends what dates you use Doctor. The index was down at 2522.32 at the end of Feb 09 which gives an increase of 28.06% to the 31/12/09. I think the bottom was about then. But you are right there is little point in NZ based funds. A different story off shore though.

Hoop
19-01-2010, 07:25 PM
NZSE 50 31/12/08 was 2715.71.
NZSE 50 31/12/09 was 3230.15.

Increase 18.94%

I think it depends what dates you use Doctor. The index was down at 2522.32 at the end of Feb 09 which gives an increase of 28.06% to the 31/12/09. I think the bottom was about then. But you are right there is little point in NZ based funds. A different story off shore though.

Disagree 777 ..I different story off shore??...apart from ozzie (maybe some others?) off shore in 2009 was a mirage for NZ investors.
Most huge gains in those equity markets were offset by their falling currency.
NZ $ index on the other hand rose from .58 to .73

Add that currency value of the shares into the equation and the NZ Stock market yearly gain looks rather huge in comparsion to the rest of the world.

Hoop
19-01-2010, 08:40 PM
Expansion on my last post #90.

Amazingly the DOW index index increased exactly the same rate as the NZX50 in 2009

Date....................DOW.................NZX50

01-01-2009...........8772.................2716
31-12-2009..........10428................3230
.........................+18.9%.............+18.9%

On face value it seems the investor would be equally better off.

But..
Not so ...

For the NZ investor investing in the DOW index fund in 2009

example
Buy the DOW index in US$ .... 1st Jan outlay NZ$ 15853....8772 x (1/0.57)
Sell the DOW index in US$.....31st Dec receive NZ$ 14483....10428 x (1/0.72)

Loss............NZ$(1370) -8.6%


For the American investor investing in the NZX50 index fund in 2009

example
Buy the NZX50 index in NZ$ .... 1st Jan outlay US$ 1548....2716 / (1/0.57)
Sell the NZX50 index in NZ$.....31st Dec receive US$ 2325....3230 / (1/0.72)

Profit...........US$777...+50.2%

777
19-01-2010, 08:55 PM
No argument with your earlier post Hoop. It is just that for a lot of investors the use of a fund for offshore investment is a convenient way of doing it. I actually use Platinum for some of my exposure. Allowing for FDR and exchange rates they averaged 33+% for 2009 calendar year.

Dr_Who
19-01-2010, 09:36 PM
NZSE 50 31/12/08 was 2715.71.
NZSE 50 31/12/09 was 3230.15.

Increase 18.94%

I think it depends what dates you use Doctor. The index was down at 2522.32 at the end of Feb 09 which gives an increase of 28.06% to the 31/12/09. I think the bottom was about then. But you are right there is little point in NZ based funds. A different story off shore though.

My Aussie resource stocks have done exceptionally well. AUD is also strong. I have very little exposure to NZ equities.

bull....
23-01-2010, 08:37 AM
Well looks like after last nights action in the US , NZ will break to the downside monday.

The 09 trendline from the lows will be broken on a daily basis = bearish but still hope on a weekly close of maintaining the uptrend.

ratkin
26-01-2010, 05:20 AM
Very dissapointed in this so called correction. Have been hunting around for a bargain or two . However all my targets have barely changed price

bull....
26-01-2010, 06:27 AM
Yea a massive 5 pt break lol , maybe it wasnt the end of the world like i was thinking

Hoop
26-01-2010, 10:13 AM
Very dissapointed in this so called correction. Have been hunting around for a bargain or two . However all my targets have barely changed price

Ratkin..Bull.. expect disappointment.
Asia and the Pacific exchanges have had their 2nd correction...but presently risk a stuttering slow recovery out of that correction.
Now its the rest of the worlds turn....

biker
26-01-2010, 11:55 AM
No argument with your earlier post Hoop. It is just that for a lot of investors the use of a fund for offshore investment is a convenient way of doing it. I actually use Platinum for some of my exposure. Allowing for FDR and exchange rates they averaged 33+% for 2009 calendar year.

777, what did they average for the 2008 calendar year?

777
26-01-2010, 12:23 PM
Biker they were down about 15% against the markets overall being down about 30%.

This URL gives their performance. In Australian $ obviously.

http://www.platinum.com.au/images/web_all.pdf

Dr_Who
26-01-2010, 01:16 PM
I am also hunting for bargains. ;)

biker
26-01-2010, 01:20 PM
Biker they were down about 15% against the markets overall being down about 30%.

This URL gives their performance. In Australian $ obviously.

http://www.platinum.com.au/images/web_all.pdf

Thanks 777. Have you been with Platinum for a while ?

777
26-01-2010, 01:59 PM
Since mid 2003. Swapped in from BT which was a good decision in hindsight.

Silverlight
27-01-2010, 12:13 PM
737 trades so far, usually I double the trades by 1.30 to get an indication of total trades for the day.

With AIA in halt for 4 days could effect trade numbers though, they were second biggest traded stock yesterday.

Bobcat.
25-02-2010, 12:45 PM
(From THE WALL STREET JOURNAL)
By Peter A. McKay and Kristina Peterson
Stocks ended a two-day skid as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's indication that interest rates would remain low outweighed bleak housing data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which lost 120 points over the previous two sessions, rose 91.75 points, or 0.9%, to 10374.16. Bank of America and J.P. Morgan Chase climbed more than 2% each.
The Fed chief stressed that the central bank's decision last week to raise the discount rate won't necessarily translate into an increase in the federal-funds rate anytime soon -- a message Wall Street wanted to hear.
"The concern people have right now is sustainability," of the U.S. recovery, said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington. "The Fed is telling us it has the spigots on and will keep them on."
The S&P 500 rose 1%, helped by gains in every sector except basic materials, which slipped 0.1%. The financial sector, which is especially sensitive to changes in Fed policy, gained 1.7%.

Phaedrus
25-02-2010, 01:00 PM
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX225.gif

Bobcat.
25-02-2010, 01:25 PM
Another nice chart Phaedrus - thnx.
Call me an optimist, but the way I read it is that there's still a lot of upside before the NZSX50 encounters serious resistance. I'd be looking for a head and shoulders pattern (like in 2Q07) before I get bearish. How do you read it?

Phaedrus
25-02-2010, 02:07 PM
Well Bobcat, I guess only an optimist would post a chart like that - even as a joke!
How do I read it? Where do I think we are going? I haven't got a clue - and neither has anyone else. In the meantime I like to concentrate on immediate reality, making sure that what I do is congruent with current circumstances. For an overview I apply a lot of different indicators to the Index, but the MSI seems to be as good as any.
In short, if the plot is Red I am Bearish.
If the plot is dark green I am Bullish.
If the plot is any other colour I am very watchful.

whatsup
11-03-2010, 11:56 AM
Well ... the 9th of March passed with a single comment from STs. How odd that a once in 75 year event that has doubled and trippled some investors net worth should pass without comment. Are those of us in that fortunate position too embarassed to admit it?

Well, not me! ... I sweated blood and pissed tears wondering if I was going to get wiped out. I wasn't. Now I'm gonna give credit to those that have helped me so much!

Thanks to all the bankers that created the mess and made me far richer. You will remain b'stards IMNSHO but I can not deny that, like all disasters where some will benefit from other's misery, I have benefited considerably. Would I rather that it was not so? Yes. But I'll not feel guilty for seizing an opportunity that was not of my making.

Will I see another event like this? I doubt I'll live for another 75 years. But I'm guessing these huge swings are going to occur more frequently than they have in the past. Perhaps even the mild swings of the 7 year cycle will be replaced by far larger swings.

Have a great year folks.

Dont forget Belg...., that I called the bottom a year ago almost to the day and it has proved to be a good call for me.

whatsup
11-03-2010, 03:02 PM
Noted. But did you leverage yourself to the hilt and back yourself? And are you now 2-3 times or more richer? ... Easy when you've no skin in the game to crow about how you "called it". ... Or did you put a few bucks in, hedging both ways? ... Far harder to put everything you own (and then some) into the game and then reap the rewards but accept at the same time you could have been wiped into abject poverty!
No Belg I like every one didnt but I did buy some IFT WA's at .02 and .03 sold at .15 but missed the top of .20 but did also load up with NPX so dont feel too bad, Aussie has also been O K .

Phaedrus
06-05-2010, 08:48 PM
Only 561 calendar days (if my quick math was correct) remaining till the magic moment.592 actually, YK - but who's counting?


I'm guessing we're somewhere near the 20% pa rise trendline.We are still running ahead of schedule and above the 20% pa nominal target. Plenty of room for a bit of slippage eh? Right now the Index is exactly in the middle of the +17% / -7% channel.
Nice.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSXlt56.gif

peat
07-05-2010, 06:58 AM
might be a slight bump in the road today.

Dr_Who
07-05-2010, 07:37 AM
Suppose the good thing about this falling market is the RB may leave interest rate low for a longer period.

Scary market.

remy
08-05-2010, 10:45 AM
yeh not to happy with happened over night! those nice gains i made yesterday will probably vanish, i cant see the market going much lower unless Portugal or Spain throw a spanner in the works over the next week or so

Phaedrus
20-05-2010, 07:15 PM
Here is some really good news to cheer you up :- We are right on target for the 19th.

The NZSX50 Index is exactly 43.3% of the way to the target.
Exactly 43.3% of the allocated time has elapsed.

Some would call this spooky..... Others wouldn't.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX520.gif

percy
20-05-2010, 07:51 PM
Phaedrus,
Thank you for the chart update.Power cut tonight,then when lights went back on, found one of the cats had been sick all over the bed,so your post was a nice bit of brightness.

ENP
20-05-2010, 07:57 PM
Personally I think we are heading for another 27% or more decline.

Vtrader
21-05-2010, 06:58 AM
[QUOTE=Phaedrus;305274]Here is some really good news to cheer you up :- We are right on target for the 19th.

The NZSX50 Index is exactly 43.3% of the way to the target.
Exactly 43.3% of the allocated time has elapsed.

Some would call this spooky..... Others wouldn't.[QUOTE]


Phaedrus I am in awe at your knowledge, and must find other reputations to add to before I can add to yours again.
I searched this thread out recently to determine our current position, decided to wait patiently for your timely update. Upon reading I recieve great solace, and suggest not so spooky for me...
Must add as a clarification, any point on the trend line will have equal proportions of rise/run (ie 43.3%)
If 43.3% is significant then I am showing my engineering knowledge is greater than my market knowledge.
As to the future, lets wait and see, or act and watch.
For my part a little more waiting then action...
V.

Phaedrus
21-05-2010, 07:52 AM
Excellent work VT. Well spotted! The entire thread is a spoof of course and 43.3% has no more significance than any other number. I added the "Others wouldn't" clause to cater for observant intelligent readers who know that the rise/run ratio is a constant.
If you ever want an update of this or any other chart, don't wait patiently - just ask.

Hoop
21-05-2010, 09:10 AM
Excellent work VT. Well spotted! The entire thread is a spoof of course and 43.3% has no more significance than any other number. I added the "Others wouldn't" clause to cater for observant intelligent readers who know that the rise/run ratio is a constant.
If you ever want an update of this or any other chart, don't wait patiently - just ask.

P you sure its 43.3 not 42 ;)

bull....
21-05-2010, 09:13 AM
nzx getting very close to a downside break of 6 mth odd sideways channel , Will it be black Monday.

bull....
25-05-2010, 02:42 PM
ah Should have been black tues oh well i have tartget of 2800 now we have a break of channel this coincides with 61.8% fib so plenty down side to come.
Dow might break channel so implys 9800 or 266 pts down.

winner69
26-05-2010, 09:02 AM
Headline in SMH this morning says $38 billion wiped off the value of the ASX yesterday .... yep A$38 billion just under NZ$50 billion ... and that went in one day

To put the NZX is perspective the market cap of the NZX is just over $50 billion .... and one more bad day ant it goes under $50 billion ..... the value gone in bad day in OZ would wipe out the NZX

Prob thats why you cant get any shares to buy Belg .... nobody interested in the NZX these days .... and its all TEL and FBU fault

Vtrader
26-06-2010, 07:17 AM
P
Is it spooky that within a week of the word 'spoof' being posted in this thread that all has gone quiet?
How do we look currently against the possible outcome of the prediction?
V.

Phaedrus
26-06-2010, 07:36 AM
"Possible" outcome VT?
Have you lost your faith?
The Index is still on track, well within its prescribed parameters and less than 4% away from the centreline.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX626.gif

Phaedrus
18-07-2010, 09:05 PM
Good man, YK. I am touched by your unswerving faith. It worries me, though, that some people don't seem to realise that this chart is meant only as an approximate guide. As I have repeatedly stated, the 4332 target could be hit anytime between 1.12pm and 3.18pm on the 19th.

Personally, I am hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. I have invested all available funds in Krugerrands, the bunker is almost finished and my stocks of food, water, arms and ammunition are in place. I bought a street-sweeper last week. In some strange way, I'll be disappointed if all these preparations prove to be needless.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX718.gif

Hoop
07-09-2010, 10:13 AM
NZSX50 - Good News...sure is..The Bull market returns

Broken through 3075 primary resistance last week with a gap upward break on the 2 September...the bulls are back:t_up:.

NZX50 as joined the Asians (except Japan) following the leading index Shanghai.
We are a week at least ahead of the Aussis The All Ords could break their primary resistance today and go bull ..aussis eat ya heart out.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5006092010.png

STRAT
08-09-2010, 03:18 PM
I am hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. I have invested all available funds in Krugerrands, the bunker is almost finished and my stocks of food, water, arms and ammunition are in place. Oh my god. You have moved to the Mainland to live with Tricha. Havent you P??? :D

Phaedrus
08-09-2010, 08:03 PM
Strat, the location of my bunker must remain a tightly guarded secret, but no, it is not in Mapua.
Tricha has warned us that Peak Oil will lead to Economic Collapse, Cities abandoned and inevitable Starvation as Oil runs out.
We are facing a complete breakdown of social order and Tricha wisely observes that we "will have to do different to survive". Indeed we will. I hope never to be in the position of having to defend my bunker with lethal force, but if needs must, I am ready - with my StreetSweeper.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Streetsweeper.gif

percy
08-09-2010, 08:27 PM
Strat, the location of my bunker must remain a tightly guarded secret, but no, it is not in Mapua.
Tricha has warned us that Peak Oil will lead to Economic Collapse, Cities abandoned and inevitable Starvation as Oil runs out.
We are facing a complete breakdown of social order and Tricha wisely observes that we "will have to do different to survive". Indeed we will. I hope never to be in the position of having to defend my bunker with lethal force, but if needs must, I am ready - with my StreetSweeper.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Streetsweeper.gif

Is that you featuring in the you tube clip"machine gun shoot" ?

STRAT
08-09-2010, 09:50 PM
Aaah Phaedrus. I can see now why you didnt go with the Zamboni.

Im ready. Mind you I like the look of one of these better.

never runs out of bullets
never rusts
Quiet

Phaedrus
09-09-2010, 05:58 AM
Is that you featuring in the you tube clip"machine gun shoot" ?Nah - that's just a redneck gun-nut, Percy. To such people, guns are toys.

To survivalists, guns are tools.

Hoop
09-09-2010, 11:31 AM
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/pen.jpg

STRAT
09-09-2010, 02:22 PM
I figured something more along these lines for your weapon Strat.



Maybe not quite as quiet as your suggestion, but it could be a lot more fun when there are no enemy in sight. :Dlol, thats very 1985 Yankiwi so a bit young for my taste :lol:

Guitars aint weapons. They are to be loved.
Hitting someone with your axe would be akin to slapping someone about with your wife, girlfriend or children.:p besides, I hear Hoop can take an eye out at 1000 yards with his ballpoint so no match for that.

STRAT
14-09-2010, 04:16 PM
That street sweeper looked rather suited to a career in armed hold ups

Phaedrus
14-09-2010, 05:21 PM
I thought I would wait until something unexpected happened, YK. I got bored with posting the same old same old "normal" chart week after week.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX914.gif

I now regret revealing my preparations for the coming apocalypse. All too often visionaries are perceived as cranks. As I have previously explained, my approach is to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I have always classed myself as a cynical idealist.
Well-read habitues of this forum will be familiar with this quote from F. Scott Fitzgerald :- “The true test of a first-rate mind is the ability to hold two contradictory ideas at the same time and still function.”

The question is, of course, am I am functioning? I shall make some enquiries.

kiora
17-09-2010, 07:21 PM
Riiiiipper of a week with lots of special crossings at the close.Someones buying up ?????

kiora
17-09-2010, 07:44 PM
Days trading results
NZ Refining 3.800 0.400 11.76 %
PPL Pumpkin Patch 1.980 0.140 7.60 %
RAK Rakon Limited 1.230 0.060 5.12 %
NZO New Zealand Oil & Gas 1.310 0.060 4.80 %
EBO Ebos Group 7.000 0.230 3.39 %
KFL Kingfish Limited 0.9300 0.0300 3.33 %
RNS Renaissance Corporation Ltd 0.3100 0.0100 3.33 %
SPY Smartpay 0.0330 0.0010 3.12 %
CAV Cavalier Corp 3.000 0.090 3.09 %
GPG Guinness Peat Group Plc 0.6700 0.0200 3.07 %
WDT Wellington Drive Technologies 0.0850 0.0020 2.40 %
HBYRA RIGHTS 0.4810 0.0110 2.34 %
KIP Kiwi Income Property Trust 0.9900 0.0200 2.06 %
RBD Restaurant Brands NZ 2.490 0.050 2.04 %
FPH Fisher and Paykel Healthcare 3.010 0.060 2.03 %
FBU Fletcher Building 8.470 0.140 1.68 %
IMP ING Medical Properties Trust 1.290 0.020 1.57 %
APT AMP NZ Office Trust 0.7500 0.0100 1.35 %
WHS The Warehouse Group 3.800 0.050 1.33 %
DNZ ORDINARY

Pete
19-09-2010, 04:09 PM
How much affect will EQC have when they have to sell up to pay out all the Christchurch claims?

upside_umop
19-09-2010, 04:16 PM
How much affect will EQC have when they have to sell up to pay out all the Christchurch claims?

Nil. They hold around $5 billion cash, and from what I remember JK saying, all of their equities are overseas. This makes sense, as it would adversely effect NZ if they had to liquidate quickly, and the fact a major earthquake could put a dampener on the economy too (think Wellington).

All up they have around $15 billion in assets, which is quite impressive given the commission was only set up in the 90's.

macduffy
19-09-2010, 04:18 PM
I thought I saw or heard a report to the effect that the EQC doesn't hold any NZ equities?

Toulouse - Luzern
19-09-2010, 04:19 PM
At least one radio news comment I heard suggested they would sell overseas shares and investments ...
I have no personal or other knowledge on this subject ...

PS While I was typing this two other posters expressed similar views

winner69
19-09-2010, 06:40 PM
Nil. They hold around $5 billion cash, and from what I remember JK saying, all of their equities are overseas. This makes sense, as it would adversely effect NZ if they had to liquidate quickly, and the fact a major earthquake could put a dampener on the economy too (think Wellington).

All up they have around $15 billion in assets, which is quite impressive given the commission was only set up in the 90's.

EQC net assets are $5.5 billion. From the PGC thread what I posted a week or so ago




You will pleased to know mouse that EQC don't have any NZ shares

Accounts for 2009 said they had $3.8 billion of Govt Stock and related stuff , $0.25 billion of NZ bank Securities and $1.7 billion of overseas equities.

No NZ stuff because the total market is only $50 billion and the Govt may as well leave that to ACC .... and whats the point of investing in stuff that has a possibility of taking a hot from a series of disasters

upside_umop
19-09-2010, 07:05 PM
EQC net assets are $5.5 billion. From the PGC thread what I posted a week or so ago

Ahh maybe John Key had it wrong when I was listening to him the day or two after the earthquake...or maybe I was too shaken up to listen properly!

The point is, there will be no net effect on the NZ stockmarket.

Edit. I just checked eqc website. I'm sure I heard JK say it was set up in the 90's....here the website says 1945. I think the interview was with Paul Holmes, but I can't be sure, as he had heaps of interviews!

RRR
19-09-2010, 07:16 PM
John Key said EQC had 15 billion in the news-I clearly remember that. Some Aussie stocks in the sell list??

upside_umop
19-09-2010, 07:21 PM
Q+A: Interview with John Key (http://tvnz.co.nz/q-and-a-news/q-interview-john-key-3760861)
PAUL But then you add the two billion in, or possibly the two billion. I mean have you got that money, can we afford that. I know the South Canterbury money was set aside.
JOHN Yes in the case of EQC, so the Earthquake Commission has enormous funds, 15 billion dollars, largely invested offshore very logically, because of course if there is an earthquake you don't want those funds invested in the country that's affected. They have about six billion in cash. So this is well and truly affordable from that perspective. The real issue actually will come not so much to those people, because they're covered to the first 100,000 and beyond that from their private insurance. It's the five or ten percent of people that don't have insurance that have said look I'll risk it, and in fact I met a couple yesterday in Christchurch who said look our insurance policy ran out four weeks ago. And that's the moral hazard for the government, because on the one hand if we pay everybody out, why would people take insurance. On the other hand you're gonna have people with real hardship and deprivation, and it's getting that balancing act right. It's not going to be easy.

Appears Mr Key was misinformed. 1994 was when treasury started doing projectons, apparently.

Sorry to put you guys wrong at the start....it was from a good source :)

winner69
19-09-2010, 08:09 PM
EQC last annual report .... pretty pictures .... and now we know where a lot of our insurance money has gone ... and no doubt premiums to go up to build up the reserves for the Wgtn quake

http://www.eqc.govt.nz/downloads/ar-0809/annual-report-2008-09.pdf

Jaa
19-09-2010, 10:41 PM
EQC has re-insurance just like the commercial providers albeit from a much higher level.


EQC chief financial officer Phillip Jacques said it would gradually be selling assets, such as global equities to pay for the first $1.5b of claims, before its $2.5b reinsurance kicked-in.

Also re future costs I'll doubt you will notice much:


The concept of insurance is about sharing and spreading losses. In this earthquake the losses suffered by around 100,000 households and probably 50-60,000 businesses will be shared with all of those taking insurance in New Zealand and around the world.

New Zealand is seen as part of the Australasian insurance market and therefore we tend to have events in Australia impact on our cost of buying global reinsurance.

CJ
20-09-2010, 07:14 AM
Also re future costs I'll doubt you will notice much:But insurance is based on the expected cost, expected risk and number of people paying.

The Chch earthquake was unexpected so fell outside the insurance calculation so there will need to be some catchup. But given the number of people contributing, the extra burden shouldn't be that great on the individual level.

Hoop
31-10-2010, 10:00 AM
Study backs up hallowed traders' whim



GREG NINNESS - Sunday Star Times Last updated 05:00 31/10/2010
Share (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/4291390/Study-backs-up-hallowed-traders-whim#share)
Print
Text Size

http://static2.stuff.co.nz/1288338374/871/4288871.jpg
It seems you can't go wrong if you buy after Halloween and sell in May, leaving your money on term deposit in between.



Tomorrow might be a good time to buy shares according to new research which confirms the effect of the "Halloween Indicator".
The indicator is a long-held theory among share traders that share prices start to rise in November and begin to fall back in in May, leading to the maxim you should buy after Halloween and sell in May, leaving your money on term deposit in between.
Research undertaken by Professor Ben Jacobsen and PhD student Cherry Zhang from Massey University's School of Economics and Finance, suggests the theory is true.
The pair looked at monthly data from the UK stock exchange going back to 1693 as part of a project to look at long-term seasonal influences on share prices, and found that prices do tend to rise in November and fall from May.
Jacobsen has also been studying data from this country which suggested the New Zealand market had been following the same trend since 1998, something he attributed to the increasing integration of the world's financial markets. He had followed the theory when investing himself and had achieved good returns, he said. "An investor with an investment horizon of five years would have remarkable odds of beating the market 80% of the time, with returns, excluding dividends, on average three times higher than the market, if they followed the theory," he said.
"With an investment horizon of 10 years, the historical odds increase to 90%."
Jacobsen and Zhang have published their findings on the Social Science Research Network.

winner69
31-10-2010, 07:13 PM
Hoop

You'll love Chart of the Day today
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20101029.htm?T

Compelling eh .... sell in may and come back in October works ... on the US markets anyway

Nearly ALL the gains on the US markets have been made thru winter .... spooky eh

blackcap
31-10-2010, 08:56 PM
Is this going to become a self fulfilling prophesy?

Phaedrus
31-10-2010, 09:54 PM
I don't have NZSX50 data going back as far as 1693, but here is a study of the 8 year period covered in this thread.

The chart below compares the capital gains accrued by the "May/October" system with (i) doing nothing (Buy and Hold), (ii) the usual 200 day Moving average and (iii) trading the Market Strength Indicator as discussed in the NZSX50 thread.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/MaySep.gif

JayPe
01-11-2010, 11:42 AM
In any case, surely once you incorporate trading costs the case to try and time the markets becomes less compelling? Plus that way you don't feel like a sheep.

mr.needs
01-11-2010, 12:12 PM
I don't have NZSX50 data going back as far as 1693, but here is a study of the 8 year period covered in this thread.

Of course your not going to get above average returns, when the period you cover is explicitly mentioned as not producing above average results.


there are some noteworthy periods during which the Halloween indicator didn't produce (e.g. during the oil embargo of 1973-74, the dot-com bust of 2000-01, and the financial meltdown of 2007-2009), the overall out performance is compelling.

Phaedrus
01-11-2010, 05:15 PM
Surely once you incorporate trading costs the case to try and time the markets becomes less compelling? Brokerage of 0.2% on 8 - 12 trades spread over 8 years is a trifling sum, but nevertheless it has been incorporated into the above chart. The 2 trading systems plotted there doubled and tripled the returns gained by simply buying and holding. I can't conceive of a more compelling example of the case FOR trying to time the market!


... Plus that way you don't feel like a sheep.Generally speaking, I think you will find that it is the sheeple that "buy and hold" regardless of overall market direction. They have been told that "it's time in the market that counts, not timing the market" - and unfortunately they believe it. They don't know how to time the market and think that it is impossible anyhow.
The aim is to make money, JayPe. Don't let your feelings get in the way of that.

ratkin
01-11-2010, 05:32 PM
Does your chart include

cost of trading software?
cost of data?
33% capital gains tax on any profits?
Dividends which the buy and holders would of recieved?
Time spent monitoring investments?
Is eight years really a long term chart?

Phaedrus
01-11-2010, 06:01 PM
Ratkin, that chart was set up to evaluate the worth of the "Halloween" TRADING SYSTEM and to compare its results with those of other approaches. It wasn't as good as "buying and holding" but plenty of systems are way, way better.

Phaedrus
01-11-2010, 06:34 PM
Quote "there are some noteworthy periods during which the Halloween indicator didn't produce (e.g. during the oil embargo of 1973-74, the dot-com bust of 2000-01, and the financial meltdown of 2007-2009), the overall out performance is compelling" In short, they are saying that the Halloween indicator worked really well - except when it didn't!


Of course your not going to get above average returns, when the period you cover is explicitly mentioned as not producing above average results.But, Mr Needs, the Halloween indicator never produced above average returns. Right from the get-go it lagged well behind the market average returns of simply buying and holding. Take another look at the red plot in the chart. Well before the meltdown, it had only made about half the gains of simply buying and holding - and those guys talk about "compelling overall out performance"!!!

ananda77
01-11-2010, 06:44 PM
Halloween Indicator:

One popular system many people discuss is the “Sell in May and Go Away” (also known as the Halloween Indicator) strategy. The system simply invests in the stock market from November – April, then moves to cash from May – October. This strategy popularized by Yale Hirsh (who writes the informative and entertaining Stock Trader’s Almanac 2011), has its origins in the U.K. market as far back as 1935 (see must read paper “Are Monthly Seasonals Real?“).

The paper finds very strong evidence of abnormal performance in the UK since the 1600s, and Bouman and Jacobson (2002) find that the strategy works in 36 of the 37 countries they tested.

Phaedrus
02-11-2010, 10:35 AM
When we look back over the history of the NZSX50 Index, Q3 (July/August/September) is way ahead of the other 3 quarters. This explains the abysmal performance of the "Halloween" indicator (Buy in November, Sell in May) - it has you out of the market over its most profitable quarter.

As applied to NZ stocks, this "indicator" is devoid of meaning and totally worthless. It may have worked well hundreds of years ago in the UK and perhaps it still works well in the Northern hemisphere - but down here in NZ, over the period covered by the NZSX50 Index, it has been a resounding failure.

Jaa
02-11-2010, 11:45 AM
When we look back over the history of the NZSX50 Index, Q3 (July/August/September) is way ahead of the other 3 quarters. This explains the abysmal performance of the "Halloween" indicator (Buy in November, Sell in May) - it has you out of the market over its most profitable quarter.

As applied to NZ stocks, this "indicator" is devoid of meaning and totally worthless. It may have worked well hundreds of years ago in the UK and perhaps it still works well in the Northern hemisphere - but down here in NZ, over the period covered by the NZSX50 Index, it has been a resounding failure.

Maybe you just need to invert it to account for our position in the Southern hemisphere? NZ market is very sleepy in January.

Phaedrus
02-11-2010, 12:07 PM
It surely does - but the facts refute both the study and the theory it purports to evaluate.

Jacobsen and Zhang "looked at monthly data from the UK stock exchange to look at seasonal influences on share prices, and found that prices do tend to rise in November and fall from May.......... data from this country suggested the New Zealand market had been following the same trend since 1998".
Since the seasons are reversed here, if NZ was following the original hypothesis of seasonal influence, then it could not be expected to be "following the same (monthly) trend" as well and the Halloween indicator "rules" would not be applicable here.

When testing the "Halloween" indicator, I began to realise that paying a reasonable rate of interest whenever money was out of the market tended to obscure the true performance of the indicator in question. Losses incurred by a poor indicator that happened to be out of the market for extended periods of time tended to be obscured by the addition of significant sums of compounding interest dragging it up to an almost acceptable level of return. Time spent out of the market was not evaluated and so there were no repercussions if the indicator "got it wrong" by being out of a rising market.

A better way of evaluating systems is to sell and go Short on any sell signals. This has the effect of magnifying the inherent strengths and weaknesses that are part of every system. You are in the market (either Short or Long) at all times - get it wrong and you are punished. There is no 6% compensation to hide your mistakes and make lousy systems appear better than they really are. The chart below shows the combined financial results of trading the market from both long and short sides. The "Halloween" system gives a net loss over the 8 year "investment" period charted here. You think that drops the boot into it? Wait till you hear this! Acting contrary to "Halloween Indicator" signals by going long in May and Short in November made no difference at all! The result was a loss of much the same magnitude. Completely inverting this "indicator" changes..... nothing!!!
The conclusion is inescapable - in NZ, over the period covered by the NZSX50 Index, the Halloween indicator has proved to be worse than useless and totally devoid of meaning.

So, is there any merit at all in systems of this type?

Yes there is - take a look at the chart below.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Hallow112.gif

Hoop
04-11-2010, 10:53 AM
Thanks Phaedrus in correcting the Halloween post I posted.. I didn't follow up and check the NZX50 part..Another example that we should not trust the media..after telling everyone not to on ST I go and do it myself :( Too quick to believe as I find the Social Science Research Network as a valuable source of information, I failed to check the research paper out myself and trusted the writings from this Journalist GREG NINNESS from the Sunday Star Times instead.

Jacobsen and Zhang have published their findings on the Social Science Research Network This is the link http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1697861 (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1697861)
Click on the one click download at the top of the webpage

I haven't time to read it today but I briefly skimmed over it and Nowhere could I see any reference to the NZX.

Back to today NZSX50 - Good News ..the market index is currently at 3332 trading as high as 3337.5 which was above the closing day high of 3335.5 back in April 14 2010 which happened to be the highest closing day point since the March 2009 bottom.
The highest intraday high since the March 2009 bottom was 3348.7 recorded on the next day the 15 April.

lodger
11-11-2010, 09:46 PM
Phaedrus, it looks to me like we're still just tracking above the -7% line. Can you confirm or deny please?
Cheers, Roger

Phaedrus
12-11-2010, 07:06 AM
Fear not, Roger.

The Index is still nicely on track, well within its prescribed parameters and less than 3% away from the centreline.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX1112.jpg

lodger
18-11-2010, 07:51 PM
Thanks for that Phaedrus. It's looking better than I thought. Pity it's not my shares that are doing the improving...:(

Hoop
01-12-2010, 11:58 AM
Relationship between Directional movement indicator and the NZX50 trend and R&S lines
I used the weekly rather than daily to filter out the noise.
Its been a rather useful correlation during the recovery phase from the March 2009 bottom.

Of special interest is the latest DM sell signal which suprisingly has not been confirmed (yet?). ..so all eyes is on that 3220 weekly support level.

Another player is the bullish squeezing of the primary uptrend line against the 3320 weekly primary resistance line. The NZX50 has failed 3 times to break it and with the present -ve DM it will have to go +ve before the index has another attempt, which if the correlation is still true may take a little while yet.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX29112010weekly.png

whirly
18-12-2010, 01:17 PM
the most recent posts on the SKT thread by Hoop and I probably belong on this thread ... I don't know how to quote across threads.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4216-SKT-Sky-Network-Television-Limited.&p=330493&viewfull=1#post330493

CJ
19-12-2010, 07:15 AM
the most recent posts on the SKT thread by Hoop and I probably belong on this thread ... I don't know how to quote across threads.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4216-SKT-Sky-Network-Television-Limited.&p=330493&viewfull=1#post330493Is this sell off something that normally happens at year end as overseas funds take their money out pre Christmas so they dont get caught post Christmas trying to exit on low liquidity as everyone in NZ is at the beach?

It could be a good signal for January, as those funds buy back in having confirmed that the world hasn't collapsed over the new year.

Phaedrus
19-12-2010, 08:38 AM
CJ, take a long, hard, careful look at the chart in post #182. The answers to your questions are right there.

Hoop
19-12-2010, 10:14 AM
CJ, take a long, hard, careful look at the chart in post #182. The answers to your questions are right there.

Hmmmm that interesting P

I notice on your chart182 that there isn't a never sell line but I guess it would end around the $16500 mark is that correct P?.

If that's the case then buy the NZ50 index on 1 Jan and sell 1 March must be a shocking loss scenario...I know its never that great to invest around the summer holiday time but is the odds really that bad?? It would be interesting to see if its not too much trouble for you Phaedrus.

CJ
19-12-2010, 10:25 AM
INteresting, I remember from ages ago something about the 'janurary effect'. Cant remember if it applied to NZ but I think there were good gains in Janurary in most years. That would suggest that sell at the end of Janurary makes sense to lock in that increase.

If that is the case (I am not good at reading charts) what is the cause. Is if funds buying up in Jan and having to overpay to get the shares they want. ONce they have their positions, there is a lack of buyers hence stay out in Feb as prices easy off. ????

whirly
19-12-2010, 10:58 AM
Is this sell off something that normally happens at year end as overseas funds take their money out pre Christmas so they dont get caught post Christmas trying to exit on low liquidity as everyone in NZ is at the beach?


CJ, take a long, hard, careful look at the chart in post #182. The answers to your questions are right there.

I guess the answer to CJ's hypothesis is no then. I have had a look at my own charts and can't find any confirmation of a change in trend based on this obv drop.

Phaedrus
19-12-2010, 03:51 PM
I notice on your chart (#182) that there isn't a "never sell" line.....I have now added a "Buy and Hold" plot just for you, Hoop. It's not so hot is it? Of course we both already knew that would be the case!


Buy the NZ50 Index on 1 Jan and sell 1 March must be a shocking loss scenario...I know its never that great to invest around the summer holiday time but are the odds really that bad?It is pretty bad. As the "opposite" of the most profitable monthly timing strategy, it had to be the worst, of course. Is the actual loss really that bad? No, not really. Do keep in mind here that this test involved going Short whenever you were not long so that the comparative efficacy of each of these options was enhanced (ie exaggerated). So, for that worst example, you were Short the Index for 10 months of every year. Of course, by going long only, a modest profit would have been made over the 8 years of the test. The actual profit is $762 - that's from investing $10,000 for 8 years. Gains don't come much more modest than that!!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZX1219.gif

Hoop
20-12-2010, 08:02 AM
Now that everyone knows ... The 3rd Jan 2011 will be a shocker!

Don't panic Belg ..the NZSX50 - Good News is you're safe, the NZX is closed on the 3rd

NZX Trading hours (http://www.nzx.com/markets/key-dates/trading-hours)

EDIT: thxs P

Lizard
20-12-2010, 11:14 AM
I see PRC leaving the index at zero looks to have knocked another 18 points off it. Back to hugging the bottom trend line? Going to be hard to stay in P's magic range if the market goes down between Jan and March. Better have a decent rally before 31st Dec! :)

Hoop
09-01-2011, 02:46 PM
We seem to be at significant resistance level being around 3,333 which was hit in Jan 2010, April 2010, Nov 2010 and now Jan 2011.

This time a breakout? Or is it time to take my toys home for a bit?

Looking at Phaedrus's graph, we appear to be right on at the bottom 7% variance line at this time. So if Phaedrus's tongue in cheek prediction is to continue then the odds favour a breakout.

Given the current macros and the fear pervading in Jan, Apr, Nov that seem absence now, a breakout also looks possible.

Looking back between 2004 when the NZ50 started and the middle of 2007 when the GFC loomed, just one year, 2005, showed a significant NY dip that (as usual?) didn't begin until med-Feb. Mid-Feb is when many companies report either HY or FY so its a good time to take (or drop) stock. Thus recent history would suggest hanging on would be a good thing at this juncture.

The next week, now the big boys are back, should be interesting. Mid-Feb will be where the fun (or carnage) begins.

Hi Belg ...I expect there is a good chance of that very strong resistance 3333 level will be broken shortly...This could be a rounded bottom in progress and a break out above the 3333 will confirm it

Rounded bottoms during a bull market can occur after a very good rise up and the market then takes an extended lengthy breather (catch up) before rising again. The breather could be months or a year or so, therefore using a long term period and weekly scale tends to show up these type of formations much better than using a daily scale chart which could produce "noise" and mask the formation. However this time around the NZX50 rounded bottom is easily seen on a daily scale chart.

I have added a weekly scale chart below which so far shows the possible rounded bottom formation, and it seems to fit the criteria that Bulkowski mentions (http://thepatternsite.com/roundb.html)...it has an additional right hand handle forming as well which is nice as it shows the distinct end of the rounded bottom formation, so we don't have to guess the end rim and it adds confirmation that we do indeed have a rounded bottom formation.

The breakout of this formation occurs at the distinct end of the right hand lip (rim) or in this case where the handle is which just happens to coincide with that long term 3333 resistance level.

If the NZX50 index breaks upward above the right hand handle (and above 3333) the target until the next correction is approximately 3710. This is spookly close to the 3700 (3680) resistance level.

The chance of failure after an upward break is low (5%)

Note not on chart ...the next small long term resistance level (3400) above the right hand rim/handle should be made aware of as a slight potential threat....I didn't think it was worth putting on the chart

Target price = lip + (lip - lowest point of the rounded bottom) ....... Target Price 3710 = 3330 + (3330 - 2950) There is a 57% chance on meeting this 3710 target price (Bulkowski)

So now we will wait and see what happens..eh:)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX50107012011.png

Phaedrus
09-01-2011, 04:48 PM
Here is a chart that compares signals from 6 separate indicators :-
Relative Momentum Index
Relative Strength Index
Slow Stochastic Oscillator
Directional Movement Indicator
Exponential Moving Average
Market Strength Indicator.
In spite of their very different formulae, these indicators have been giving virtually identical signals.

Why use such "medium-term" indicators at all? Because they give good early warning of any incipient weakness developing, getting you out of the market earlier than long-term indicators when the market weakens, and getting you back in again earlier than long-term indicators.

It is easy to see that none are anywhere near indicating a need for caution.

In the immortal words of Alfred E. Newman, What? me worry???

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZ5019.gif

percy
09-01-2011, 05:15 PM
phaedrus,
Happy new year to you.Thank you for the chart and your comments.
Feel a lot more at ease with Alfred E.Newman's sage advice.! Thank you.

winner69
14-01-2011, 07:07 AM
50% Fib is 3377 ...... hey we are half way back to high of a few years ago

Will Natures forces relent and get us through this barrier ... all good news if it does .... but Nature seems to be pretty angry at the moment so we might have to wait a while

Hoop
14-01-2011, 11:07 AM
50% Fib is 3377 ...... hey we are half way back to high of a few years ago

Will Natures forces relent and get us through this barrier ... all good news if it does .... but Nature seems to be pretty angry at the moment so we might have to wait a while

You reckon we have to wait a while even after a major S&R (resistance 3333) break out......Winner you sound pessimistic:mellow:

Charts look OK ..P's charts are Green...Even the old school investor using P&F Pattern charts would be happy with yesterdays result.
Both Aords and NZx50 showed an ascending triple tops breakout (3371 NZX50) triggering a trading buy signal.

Even Charlie Dow if he was still alive would be "in" today boots and all.:)

NZ50 P&F Pattern (http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$nz50,PLTCDANRBO[PA][D20110113][F1%213%21%21%214%2120]&pref=G)
AOrd P&F Pattern (http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$aord,PLTCDANRBO[PA][D20110113][F1%213%21%21%214%2120]&pref=G)

winner69
14-01-2011, 11:34 AM
No Hoop ... `just wondering if Nature will play its part and let the markets continue to boom .... just he/she has been rather destructive lately like telling us we have been bad and we need to pull our heads in again and be good.

Whatever there's a full moon next Thursday so that might be the day for the breakout

wbosher
14-01-2011, 11:39 AM
Maybe everyone is waiting to see if the world will end in March 2011. :lol:

winner69
14-01-2011, 12:02 PM
Maybe everyone is waiting to see if the world will end in March 2011. :lol:

What's bringing on the end of world in March Bosher .... you have me worried now

wbosher
14-01-2011, 12:33 PM
Some nut case thinks the world is going to end in March, but apparently the same nut also said the world was going to end in the 1990s. I don't think you need to worry too much winner. ;)

darksentinel
14-01-2011, 02:31 PM
It's 2012 you have to watch out for (December 21).

wbosher
14-01-2011, 02:35 PM
Ok, so 1st April - BUY if we're still here. December 20th - SELL unless you believe, in which case you won't care.

Get the word out, rampant bull market for about nine months!

Phaedrus
14-01-2011, 04:17 PM
DON'T DO IT, WB!

Such a proposed timing system has, historically, been disastrous, making only about HALF as much as simply "Buying and Holding". (Not that that is recommended, of course!)

I just pray that I have caught you in time, before you cashed up as some others have already done.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX114.gif

mr.needs
14-01-2011, 04:39 PM
DON'T DO IT, WB!

Such a proposed timing system has, historically, been disastrous, making only about HALF as much as simply "Buying and Holding". (Not that that is recommended, of course!)

I just pray that I have caught you in time, before you cashed up as some others have already done.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX114.gif

I think wbosher was referring to the fact the earth will most probably cease to exist on either of those dates.:D

CJ
14-01-2011, 10:22 PM
DON'T DO IT, WB! per post 182, you should be buying 1 March and selling 31 December. It is amazing what difference a month and 10 days make.

Phaedrus
15-01-2011, 07:17 AM
Yes, there is a big difference. It is largely explained by the fact that March is one of our very best months and to be out of the market at such boom times incurs a heavy penalty.

The figures in the above chart are derived from trading Long only, so they are not directly comparable with those of post #182 which plotted the combined profits of Long and Short trades.

wbosher
15-01-2011, 08:13 AM
DON'T DO IT, WB!

Such a proposed timing system has, historically, been disastrous, making only about HALF as much as simply "Buying and Holding". (Not that that is recommended, of course!)

I just pray that I have caught you in time, before you cashed up as some others have already done.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX114.gif


Not sure if you saw my earlier tongue in cheek post about the end of the world P, I was only joking. I would never do anything so foolish, you've taught me better than that!

Of course if the world does end in March, this is all irrelevant anyway. ;)

darksentinel
15-01-2011, 10:04 AM
Not sure if you saw my earlier tongue in cheek post about the end of the world P, I was only joking. I would never do anything so foolish, you've taught me better than that!

Of course if the world does end in March, this is all irrelevant anyway. ;)

But you can go into the hereafter knowingthat your last act was not a foolish investment decision :P

winner69
20-01-2011, 09:46 AM
50% Fib is 3377 ...... hey we are half way back to high of a few years ago

Will Natures forces relent and get us through this barrier ... all good news if it does .... but Nature seems to be pretty angry at the moment so we might have to wait a while

Looks like we need to have to wait a few more weeks before she lets the NZX get over 3377 .... obviously we need to behave a bit better

winner69
07-02-2011, 11:32 AM
I reckon 3377 is the 50% Fib level - the level where the market is exactly half way back to its highs of a few years ago

Yippee ... we have finally made it ..... and it's Super Bowl time so might need to find a pub with some Steelers fans in it to chair the boys home

The TA question ... is 3377 resistance and there will be another day to celebrate or is 3377 the new support as we start the spurt back to where the NZX once was

winner69
12-02-2011, 01:07 PM
Bugger .... below that 3377 (if I was a real guru would have to say that 'critical' 3377 mark) and in need a few decent days to go up to 3400 where one would feel a bit safer eh

Just need another good day from FBU (like the other day that shot the NZX50 way above 3377) or maybe TEL might have another recovery

No need to worry ... currently just in the range of the margin of error .... the market will continue to rise and wont be less than waht is today (as 3377 become support) for a year or say

Just liek the Aussie are getting excited with the All Ords going above 5000 .... might create a bit of momentum seeing the likes of Oliver are all spruiking 5500 now

Phaedrus
29-04-2011, 07:43 AM
A big, early Christmas spend-up eh!

On Stocks or Stockings?
Investments or Indulgences?
Portfolios or Presents?
Shares or Shopping?
Gold or Gifts?
Commodities or Confectionery?
Trading or Tradition?

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX429.gif

lou
02-05-2011, 08:11 PM
A big, early Christmas spend-up eh!

On Stocks or Stockings?
Investments or Indulgences?
Portfolios or Presents?
Shares or Shopping?
Gold or Gifts?
Commodities or Confectionery?
Trading or Tradition?

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX429.gif

How come you have a range of +17% and -7%?

Phaedrus
02-05-2011, 08:37 PM
These figures (and the 20% pa) are simply copied across from the last Bull market, as per the chart.

The target date is when the NZSX50 "ought" to regain its 2007 peaks.

waikare
13-05-2011, 11:57 AM
Would some kind person know or direct me to where I may find what companies that are the next ten after the NZSX50

elZorro
27-06-2011, 03:58 PM
Hi Belgarion, I think the answer might be "does not compute" "insufficient data" or similar. Has the grey line turned to red yet? If so, wait for OGC to be included on the NZX50, with a bit of optimism we may be able to give it a rocket in the other direction.

Phaedrus
27-06-2011, 04:46 PM
Any chance of a new date based upon current trend lines rather than previous bull market behaviour? Sure Belg, see chart lower RH corner.


If a return to the 2007 peaks is still on...... we should all be buying this dip BIG TIME! Now now Belg, you should know that buying dips is very risky behaviour. Look what happened to all the mug-punters who were "buying the dips" in 2008! Remember this timeless wisdom :- Man buying falling market soon be wishing he hadn't. Man buying rising market very pleased he waited.

Just in case my fancy indicators are too active for your tastes, Belg, you might like to note that the Index is still above its 200 day moving average and is also still above its longterm (2+ years) confirmed trendline.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX627.gif

Hoop
18-10-2011, 12:35 PM
Hmmmm...A channel break out about the time he cashed up and left the building. So far that was a smart "tongue in cheek" move..eh Belg ;)

gonzo56
18-10-2011, 01:02 PM
...perhaps if I show people how to create nuclear fusion in a nail polish bottle using distilled steinlarger, carrot peelings, bull's sperm and ground insect shells ...

!!Can you do that!?!

winner69
24-10-2011, 06:58 PM
Wow ... ASX up nearly 3% today ... DOW futures up for tonite

and now we are the world champions the punters in the street (ie consumers) will be happy .... the economy is fixed ... instos will be on a high .... and buying buying buying tomorrow

Maybe a +5% day?

gonzo56
25-10-2011, 08:13 AM
... And, I mean, how to you get an elephant seal to blow in a hanky for you anyway?
Haha, you know what. I really don't know...

gonzo56
28-10-2011, 09:34 AM
Should be some some big leaps on the NZX today ... Some of the beaten down stocks may surprise big time ...

Lol seeing as the markets are powered by emotion, i'm hoping we catch this contented "wave" all the way to the shoreline! We all deserve it.

winner69
28-10-2011, 09:50 AM
Is a good day ... ALF is leading the way and up 33% ... just in time for Lizards competition update ha ha

macduffy
15-11-2011, 05:23 PM
Maybe it's not capitulation, just lack of interest.

I'm waiting for the really negative mood before I call "capitulation"!

scamper
15-11-2011, 09:15 PM
does 'capitulation' have a technical meaning that I don't know about?
Do tell -- I'd like to know when to start looking for a buy...

percy
22-11-2011, 07:58 PM
Hoop,
Would you please post a chart of NZ50 for us.

Hoop
23-11-2011, 10:56 AM
Hoop,
Would you please post a chart of NZ50 for us.
Hi Percy...One of the hardest parts of TA is to figure out a trendless chart which has resulted from a steep previous drop. This dead cat bounce flattened out into a holding trendless event is a worry as it can end up going either way. It has a complex head and shoulder look about it or a diamond ..both really don't fit properly so their resulting line break through 3315 (not drawn on the charts) could be regarded as a less reliable break downwards sell signal.

So what to do...

Many Common TA indicators tend to be confusing during trendless events so work on support and resistance lines, watch for sudden volume changes, momentum.. ignore the media, etc. Also look back long term and see what cycle the index is in (Bull cycle) as a reference to percentage chances.......... With many overseas market turning into a cyclic Bear markets watch the NZX50 for those lower highs and lower lows.
I have added two charts.... the 1/2yearly chart shows us that the NZX50 is retesting its major 3247/3255 support zone.... any break downward would see a test of the 3097 (cyclic change) area....It looks like we are at a cliff edge atm.

Same applies to an upturn buy signal on a higher high (3400) which would test that original primary trendline coming up from beneath it
I have added a 3 year chart to point out the current cyclic bull market cycle.
Personally..I hate trendless index events...thats the reason I'm pessimistic and why I'm not accumulating any NZ shares atm and selling those that have gone doggy.

I took me awhile to draw these charts as StockCharts seem to have wrong data (highlighted on chart)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5021112011.png

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX50211120113year.png

percy
23-11-2011, 11:48 AM
Hoop.
Many thanks for the charts and excellent commentary.I had looked at Yahoo charts and saw NZX50 was under 200 day moving average.I had a friend who wanted to buy some EBO,FRE,HLG and POT.I told her I thought it best not to buy,as NZX 50 looked weak,however I thought FRE was strong.
I will get her to read your post as I think it will give her a clearer picture than I can give her.thanks again.

winner69
23-11-2011, 12:01 PM
Hoop - the NZX has been quite resilient over the last year or so -- hovering wrond the 3300 mark

In April 2010 it was 3307. Since then it has gone to 10% below that mark and then went to 8% above the 3300 mark. Since giving that 8% up (plus a bit more for a few days in August) it has essentially been 3300 plus or minus a couple of percent (from 3300 ranging from-1.5% / + 2.9%) since then

Seeing whats going on in the world thats a pretty stable state for nearly 3 months. Wouldn't say trendless but steady at around the 3300 mark

Prob reflects the boring nature of the NZ market .... not much to get that excited about

That

janner
08-12-2011, 06:19 PM
Don't know if I have done the right thing Belg..

Just could not resist picking up NPX today @ $2.40..

It is giving a return of 9%

With the CEO picking up 60000 and a director 20000 a few weeks ago they must have plenty of faith..

iceman
09-12-2011, 07:09 AM
Its what I'm doing too but far more quietly than the folk who stormed into HBY two days ago :)

I'm glad I am in good company quietly picking up NPX. Am also picking up SAN which has in my view been oversold as an (over) reaction to some bad news. Still a good solid company in the food business with a good long term future.

Hoop
09-12-2011, 12:04 PM
Hmmmm.....things are looking a little grim here.

Is this another test of the bottom trading range or something a bit more sinister?

In theory a warning of a trading range breakout comes when a cycle gets cut off from reaching its destination range limit (see A on chart)...Hmmm... theory v in practice agree only in perfect world ..eh?

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5007122011.png

percy
09-12-2011, 12:18 PM
Hoop,
Thank you for your chart.As you point out things are looking a little grim,and as Belgarion noted liquidity is very low.

winner69
21-12-2011, 09:40 AM
Just as well the US had a good night else we would ahve seen the NZX50 falling below 3200 which has not been seen since Septemeber

So the NZ X50 continues to trade within 3300 plus a few % (like 3200 to 3400) - somethign it sone for a while now

winner69
21-12-2011, 10:18 AM
Stuff from Stats NZ this morning says our current account deficit for the Sept quarter was $0.7 billion larger than the June quarter .... and that again we saw net outflow of people out of NZ in Nov and for the 12 months the largest net loss since Seot 2001

The attached chart shows our current account deficit over the years (from the Stats report) - as I undersatnd it the amounts are for the quarter so we need to add each quarter cumulatively to get where things are going ..... dosn't it mean we that cumulatively the total deficit is getting bigger and bigger .... and bigger ...... we hardly ever run a surplus .... no wonder the people are following the money out of the country

Prob wrong again in this assessment but thats how I see it anyhow

Lizard
21-12-2011, 11:32 AM
..... dosn't it mean we that cumulatively the total deficit is getting bigger and bigger .... and bigger ...... we hardly ever run a surplus .... no wonder the people are following the money out of the country


It's not as big a problem as it was - as a % of GDP, we've reduced the deficit in our international investment position somewhat over the past few years. Not a lot though. On our side have been improving trade balances - mostly helped by oil exports offsetting our imports (which had become the least manageable part of our trade deficit prior to Tui, Kupe, Maari etc coming on stream) and through strong prices for commodities.

However, on the current account side we get hurt by the fact that for every $1 of New Zealand assets held by overseas investors, we only hold about 54 cents in overseas assets. It looks as though the majority of this is in debt markets. So we have the continual drain of interest payments - although fortunately the rates are quite low at the moment, with the government able to raise long term debt at under 2.5% interest. A big chunk of September Quarter deficit looks to have come from increased government debt issues purchased by overseas investors.

It would all be great if the government could find ways to invest this money that generated more than 2.5% return from overseas (buy italian bonds?!). :) Unfortunately, it is more likely that this money will be spent on overseas goods for the construction industry than on creating export industries.

Another problem of late is that overseas assets declined in value relative to NZ assets over the September Quarter - possibly this is exchange rate related. However, we tend to hold a much higher proportion of overseas assets as equity rather than debt, so perhaps more volatile in value.

One of the most curious things about this months figures is the big jump in financial derivatives on both sides of the equation that I can't find an explanation for.

It's a biggish issue as to what it might take to return the net IIP to something more balanced. The biggest windfall gain that could contribute would be to alter the trade balance on energy through more petroleum exports - or perhaps, more radically, the long term move towards locally generated energy sources for transport industry.

Otherwise, it will be a slow slog to get to a point where we own as much of overseas economies as they do of ours - investing wisely offshore and repatriating the profits is good, but pumping it into spec shares and losing the lot is not...

Btw, for comparison, Australia has an IIP liability to GDP ratio of 53% by my calculation, compared to NZ at 73%. Despite being the beneficiaries of a major resources boom over the past few years, they are still running a current account deficit, albeit smaller than NZ's in this particular quarter.

Lizard
21-12-2011, 11:33 AM
There's still a few billion of insurance money yet to enter the NZ economy ... stand by for a reversal of fortunes ... (for the enxt 5 years at least)

Most of the reinsurance money has already been provisioned for by stats in past quarters. The reversal you will see will be when this all gets spent offshore on imports of kitchen units and bathroom sinks... not the reversal you are thinking!

winner69
22-12-2011, 07:02 AM
These guys think we are heading into dangerous territory with the ever increasing 'deficit'
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/6176136/Deficit-will-get-worse-economists


Of course we are .... all part of the big plan ...... let the cuountry run up huge deficits .... ones that need fixing ..., sell the real assets of the country on the cheap .... to whom one may ask .... obvious eh the rcih greedy few ........ and we think the Occupy movement are a lot of useless layabouts!

The palns working in parts of Europe .... the common people are getting raped and pillaged ..... NZ's turn soon?

Don't know where this fits with share trading / investing .... but prob has an impact somewhere

Lizard
22-12-2011, 08:08 AM
The only thing I see blowing out in New Zealand are the levels of paranoia.

NZ was in a very shaky current account position back in 2007 and everyone turned a blind eye while we ran deficits of 8-9% of GDP. Now we hit 4.3% and people start comparing us with countries like Spain and Italy...ignoring the advantage of a floating currency. We also have very little borrowing that needs to be rolled over in the next two years, so they can throw our bond yields to the ceiling and it won't actually start to impact for a while - meantime, our GDP should be helped by the stimulus of a Christchurch rebuild - even if to a lesser extent than may be forecast. So even though the reinsurance inflows may have already been provisioned for, the extra trade imports would expect to be offset by increases in GDP in the BoP ratio.

Anyway, just so you can sleep easier, Winner, I have searched around and had to download the data to create this chart for you.... NZ's IIP net liability as a % of GDP (I was going to make the figures negative, as they should be, but I can't work out how to make this version of Excel put the Axis label above the line!). While the overall liability leaves us vulnerable to the world view on us, it's not a deteriorating picture in the 10 year time frame. Which is not to say it won't become so - but not to say it will either.

3736

New Zealand got raped and pillaged in the late 1980's and early 1990's. We came close again with our inability to close down a housing bubble and agricultural bubble, parts of which remain a risk. Our WFF commitments may have been on the generous side and, in my view, the expenses of policy advice, regulation and monitoring abound unchecked. However, we are not in the kind of dire straits that require us to plunge into an austerity spiral - especially not in a one-way competition with the rest of the world.

Still, caution is required. The recently announced improvement in savings rates could become mirage-like if it has been caused by Christchurch homeowners paying off their red-zone mortgages and not yet investing in a new property. We need to stay on the glide path if possible - investing wisely is the most important thing we can each do in this regard.

Hoop
22-12-2011, 08:16 AM
Hmmmm.....things are looking a little grim here.

Is this another test of the bottom trading range or something a bit more sinister?

In theory a warning of a trading range breakout comes when a cycle gets cut off from reaching its destination range limit (see A on chart)...Hmmm... theory v in practice agree only in perfect world ..eh?
Update
Breakout warning is now a reality.

Was the previous inflow of money holding up the NZX50 causing it to be one of the few global Equity markets still in a cyclic Bull market cycle...

now that money is exiting ......:(

Winner...free camping ground this Xmas

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX20122011.png

winner69
22-12-2011, 08:49 AM
Winner...free camping ground this Xmas



Free camping Hoop .... good idea ..... maybe Aotea Square .... plenty of empty space there I believe .... but then again I couldn't put up with being in Auckland for too long

winner69
22-12-2011, 10:18 AM
Good stuff there Liz .... you'll make me think more deeply about such stuff

Whatever it's not affecting the economy - Sept number out and the economy growing at an annualised 3.2% .... more than those doozie economists are projecting for next year .... and with Dec quarter being up as to all accounts makes you wonder what these guys are on when they run their models .... jeez 3.2% growth now has to be 4%-5% by this time next year .... even if the rest of the world is struggling

Lizard
22-12-2011, 10:42 AM
.... jeez 3.2% growth now has to be 4%-5% by this time next year .... even if the rest of the world is struggling

Yep, and if we could run 4-5% GDP growth, then a 4.3% current account deficit would be infinitely sustainable without an overall deterioration .... :D

I thought this bit from today's release looked positive from the perspective of the average NZer:


Real gross national disposable income (RGNDI) increased 2.8 percent for the year ended September 2011, while GDP grew 1.3 percent over the same period. The difference between RGNDI and GDP for this year was mainly due to an increase in the terms of trade effect. Current price exports of goods and services increased 9.5 percent for the year ended September 2011, while prices of exports increased more than prices of imports over the same period

Explained further here:

While GDP is a measure of domestic production or economic activity over a given time period, RGNDI can be viewed as a broad welfare indicator. Net flows of income with the rest of the world are also included in RGNDI, as not all of the income generated by domestic production accrues to New Zealand residents. RGNDI measures the volume of goods and services New Zealand residents have command over.

Lizard
22-12-2011, 12:21 PM
Okay, so I agree with you Belgarion - GDP will rise. What I disagreed with you originally on was the current account balance though - the actual deficit is likely to increase on the basis of increased imports. However, as a % of GDP, the rise in GDP may off-set that.

On the back of a that, we could also expect a rise in GDP to perhaps trigger some OCR increases... and perhaps that in turn risks a re-start of the carry trade, rise in value of the NZD and associated frustrations for exporters. It would be nice if enough risk aversion has been learned in recent years to ensure we don't see an instant return to debt-fuelled household spending patterns. :)

Hoop
24-01-2012, 09:44 AM
What a shame Phaedrus's tongue-in-cheek post was wrong ... Maybe Assumption 1 gives him a getout? Hoop? (Certainly assumption 2 is the perfectly worded get out of jail free card).

LOL
That Phaedrus's Post was a frustrated reaction to all the posters who kept harping on about TA predicting the future..He kept replying that his TA could not accurately predict the future and it should be used as designed... to time the buy ins and sell outs of that particular stock returning the best profit in relation to the amount of risk involved (the sweet spot).....so he drew that chart to prove his point..but unfortunately for P it worked very well (too well) for quiet some time before it broke down, probably much to his surprise :D.

No discipline is 100% accurate, but P noticed that his TA method had much better results when that particular stock's market index was in a primary uptrend and so he created his MSI indicator as a guide...basically to minimize the investment risk even further by ignoring his own TA buy signals when his MSI was in the red zone.
His methodology when MSI was red was basically "when kicked out, stay out" Bear Market Strategy.
.
.
Back to the NZ50
Colin Twiggs email today shows USA markets resumming their Bull market cycle (primary up trend) together with Brazil and South Africa.
Canada and South Korea are looking likely to follow
The European markets are threatening but their indicators are weaker
Australia seems to be bottoming out
The Asian markets continue to trade in their bear market conditions.
I couldn't see NZX50 anywhere so I drew up one.
The NZX50 seems to follow the good news as well with a primary breakout and hopefully this will be confirmed with the MA200 nearby and the testing of the 3350 resistance level

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5020012012.png

winner69
24-01-2012, 09:50 AM
Hoop - the NZX has been quite resilient over the last year or so -- hovering wrond the 3300 mark

In April 2010 it was 3307. Since then it has gone to 10% below that mark and then went to 8% above the 3300 mark. Since giving that 8% up (plus a bit more for a few days in August) it has essentially been 3300 plus or minus a couple of percent (from 3300 ranging from-1.5% / + 2.9%) since then

Seeing whats going on in the world thats a pretty stable state for nearly 3 months. Wouldn't say trendless but steady at around the 3300 mark

Prob reflects the boring nature of the NZ market .... not much to get that excited about

That

2 months on from that post and NZX50 not quite back to 3300

So all we can say NZX50 rangebound at 3300 +/- a few percent .... maybe this time it will go 3300 +3% and then more .... but hope is not a strategy I am told

Hoop
24-01-2012, 11:12 AM
2 months on from that post and NZX50 not quite back to 3300

So all we can say NZX50 rangebound at 3300 +/- a few percent .... maybe this time it will go 3300 +3% and then more .... but hope is not a strategy I am told
Exactly true...NZX50 is still range bound between 3200 and 3350 and hope is a delusional emotion :mellow:.

However Mr Market is feeling a little better at the moment and has gotten out of his sick bed.

I must admit..one thing about trendlines I don't like is.. the index can break a down trend line only to keep following it down from the top side...confirmation from other indicators does build a degree of hope that this time the index may retest the broken trend line then repell away upwards towards the 3350 ..eh

winner69
24-01-2012, 06:24 PM
Exactly true...NZX50 is still range bound between 3200 and 3350 and hope is a delusional emotion :mellow:.

However Mr Market is feeling a little better at the moment and has gotten out of his sick bed.

I must admit..one thing about trendlines I don't like is.. the index can break a down trend line only to keep following it down from the top side...confirmation from other indicators does build a degree of hope that this time the index may retest the broken trend line then repell away upwards towards the 3350 ..eh

HOOP - even you would have to say today was a bummer day for the NZX50 .... all the way down to 3268 whenit was looking so promising eh

Hoop
24-01-2012, 09:09 PM
HOOP - even you would have to say today was a bummer day for the NZX50 .... all the way down to 3268 whenit was looking so promising eh

Yep...it's days like today I wished I wrote today's post tomorrow.

Down 27 to 3268 (0.8%) the only 2 good things about today are....
1.. that it is still on the topside of that broken primary down trend line...just!!
That was one very fast retest...

The other good thing is, my trigger finger developed rigour mortis.

We will see what tomorrow brings

winner69
30-01-2012, 03:56 PM
Hoop .... over 3300 again .... up up and away this time .... I feel it my bones

winner69
09-02-2012, 07:19 PM
Hoop .... over 3300 again .... up up and away this time .... I feel it my bones

Hoop ..... getting close to the top of trading range again eh


This time it will break out ..... then 3400 ..... then 3500 .... and even higher following the ASX200 up to 5000 plus by Xmas

Hoop
09-02-2012, 09:56 PM
Hoop .... over 3300 again .... up up and away this time .... I feel it my bones


Hoop ..... getting close to the top of trading range again eh


This time it will break out ..... then 3400 ..... then 3500 .... and even higher following the ASX200 up to 5000 plus by Xmas
Post # 272 24th January 2012




Back to the NZ50

The NZX50 seems to follow the good news as well with a primary breakout and hopefully this will be confirmed with the MA200 nearby and the testing of the 3350 resistance level.......

Primary breakout is now confirmed with the MA200...all good news NZX50 bull market cycle lives on.

Winner that bone ailment you have ...I seem to have it too:mellow:

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5008022012.png

drillfix
10-02-2012, 01:26 AM
You guys seem to put a lot of faith in to oblique breakouts, which of course, do show the rise and move out of the downward channel.

Saying that, to me, unless that break is combined with the horizontal break of resistance upward, I myself just see this as a potential break and still in the trading range, or range bound (sideways even).


However, looking at those lower indicators sure do offer good confidence in such a move.

No doubt the test will come soon enough~!

Hoop
10-02-2012, 09:54 AM
You guys seem to put a lot of faith in to oblique breakouts, which of course, do show the rise and move out of the downward channel.

Saying that, to me, unless that break is combined with the horizontal break of resistance upward, I myself just see this as a potential break and still in the trading range, or range bound (sideways even).


However, looking at those lower indicators sure do offer good confidence in such a move.

No doubt the test will come soon enough~!


Winner ..Drilly has rained on our party:(:p.


Yes Drilly unfornately your comments are very valid....When it comes to formations falling wedges are classed as nearly a total bitch to deal with..their continuations after a breakout are rather unpredictable and can be sudden.

Yes..there is a lot going against the NZX50 falling wedge breakout. The biggest bogey of them all is the 3350 resistance line and therefore the 70% chance of it meeting it's target must be reduced....As my investment strategy deals with 70+% chances, I'm only tempted to load up quickly with NZ stocks but haven't. Many NZX50 buy signals have fired making this falling wedge breakout much more acceptable to trade on but overall caution remains so I will bend my discipline and dribble accumulate on selected rising stocks...the extra factor is the dividend season also tempts me in.
Bulkowski's view on falling wedges is very negative (http://thepatternsite.com/fallwedge.html)

Below is a closer look at the NZX50 falling wedge.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5008022012A.png

winner69
15-02-2012, 04:29 PM
Whats happening Hoop ..... going down faster than it went up ..... and now below 3300 again

winner69
05-03-2012, 08:15 AM
Hoop .... must be up up and away this time ..... broken that trading range

Methinks 3500 soon ..... and as ASX200 heads over 5000 than NZX50 4000 by Xmas .... the world is all happy again ... bad news means good news .... and Mike Hosking says every morning everything is getting better (and his mate Roger Kerr agrees with him) ... I am a believer

Hoop
05-03-2012, 08:22 AM
Whats happening Hoop ..... going down faster than it went up ..... and now below 3300 again

Reposted...deleted original post 9.10am had chart errors

With the aid of hindsight is was a Bear trap....just another one of life's liitle hurdles ...eh

Broke through the major 3350 resistance and onwards and upwards to the 3400 target

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5002032012-1.png

troyvdh
05-03-2012, 08:38 PM
..dear Winner...I would have expected better from you...."hosking"....he thought/thinks that hoskings (hanover) was hard done bye....that the critiscm was unwarranted.....give me a break....can i suggest that you perhaps you change your dial to the national programme....I am a believer.......cheers

winner69
06-03-2012, 11:27 AM
Over 3400 .... Mike was right .... we are now heading into boom times .... NZX next stop 3500 .... then 3600 and on and upwards

National a bit of a bore first thing in the morning ... maybe it is Kate that attracts me ... but only to 7am

Some interesting stuff pops up with Jim (?) on National in the afternoon

winner69
08-03-2012, 10:49 AM
Stuff.co.nz says 7 MONTH HIGH ..... except for a bit of irrational exuberance early last year today is almost a 4 YEAR HIGH

Great stuff .... here we go .... 3500 soon ... then 3600 ... and then more ..... put it down to Key and National management of the economy I say

CJ
09-03-2012, 02:52 PM
put it down to Key and National management of the economy I say


rotflmao ... :)When in a storm, you just keep the boat pointing straight.

So while they haven't done much, they have held the helm steady. Labour would have tried a 90 degree turn

Major von Tempsky
09-03-2012, 03:50 PM
As a moderate statement.....Labour/Social Democrat governments are not well known for their sharemarket performance...

winner69
12-03-2012, 10:18 AM
Hoop .... 3500 not far away now .... this week for sure .... amazing eh

winner69
12-03-2012, 12:36 PM
surely know one truely believe's there is too much more up side in the nzx 50, one would think there is way to much head winds for that to happen.
Poeple with tunnel vision always have a blind spot which mean sometimes they cant see whats coming till it hits them.

NZX been been beaten to hell for so long and now things are coming right why shouldn't there be much more upside .... headwinds if any are much lighter than a year or so ago .... even pessimistic forecasts from the experts a re saying 3% plus growth over the next few years .... add an undervalued market into the mix ... and even a bit of investor optimism ... and we are up up and away

Not accussing me of having tunnel vision are you snapiti?

winner69
12-03-2012, 06:29 PM
Snapiti .... one gets lamblasted for being negative and now things are looking up well well .... can't win

I will come back to earth with a thud ---- jeez I just read this ..... heck the S&P is about to collapse .... and no doubt the NZX will follow -

In recent weeks, the U.S. stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndrome that has historically been hostile to stocks. Last week, the situation became much more pointed. Past instances have been associated with such uniformly negative outcomes that the current situation has to be accompanied by the word "warning."

The following set of conditions is one way to capture the basic "overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields" syndrome:

1) S&P 500 more than 8% above its 52 week (exponential) average
2) S&P 500 more than 50% above its 4-year low
3) Shiller P/E greater than 18
4) 10-year Treasury yield higher than 6 months earlier
5) Advisory bullishness > 47%, with bearishness < 27% (Investor's Intelligence)

[These are observationally equivalent to criteria I noted in the July 16, 2007 comment, A Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest. The Shiller P/E is used in place of the price/peak earnings ratio (as the latter can be corrupted when prior peak earnings reflect unusually elevated profit margins). Also, it's sufficient for the market to have advanced substantially from its 4-year low, regardless of whether that advance represents a 4-year high. I've added elevated bullish sentiment with a 20 point spread to capture the "overbullish" part of the syndrome, which doesn't change the set of warnings, but narrows the number of weeks at each peak to the most extreme observations].

The historical instances corresponding to these conditions are as follows:

December 1972 - January 1973 (followed by a 48% collapse over the next 21 months)

August - September 1987 (followed by a 34% plunge over the following 3 months) July 1998 (followed abruptly by an 18% loss over the following 3 months)

July 1999 (followed by a 12% market loss over the next 3 months)

January 2000 (followed by a spike 10% loss over the next 6 weeks)

March 2000 (followed by a spike loss of 12% over 3 weeks, and a 49% loss into 2002)

July 2007 (followed by a 57% market plunge over the following 21 months) January 2010 (followed by a 7% "air pocket" loss over the next 4 weeks)

April 2010 (followed by a 17% market loss over the following 3 months) December 2010

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc101213.htm

Hoop
12-03-2012, 07:15 PM
surely know one truely believe's there is too much more up side in the nzx 50, one would think there is way to much head winds for that to happen.
Poeple with tunnel vision always have a blind spot which mean sometimes they cant see whats coming till it hits them.

Sorry Snapiti...no offense but I just couldn't help myself
I must remember to take my medication
I must remember to take my medication
I must remember to take my medication
I must remember to take my medication
I must remember to take my medication
I must remember to take my medication
I must remember to take my medication
I must remember to take my medication
I must remember to take my medication
I must remember to take my medication
:(:(:(

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5009032012.png

winner69
12-03-2012, 07:35 PM
Hoop ..... OMG ..... didn't Pike River have an uphill tunnel ..... and we all know that all ended in tears ..... time to get out of the NZX methinks ..... since snapiti posts all the signs are bad and point to a painful end to this little journey

You taking the same medication as me mate?

Major von Tempsky
14-03-2012, 08:26 AM
Grump, grump - it could be even better :-(

Hoop
14-03-2012, 09:34 AM
Hoop .... 3500 not far away now .... this week for sure .... amazing eh

yep.......3500 as I type (last time 3500 15 June 2011)

winner69
15-03-2012, 07:05 AM
yep.......3500 as I type (last time 3500 15 June 2011)

and in a few weeks time when it closese above 3584 you'll be able to say (last time 3585 June 2008)

Surely not ... cant be right .... market still less than what it was 4 years ago !!!! .... a lot must have happened eh

So only retracing where it's been before .... take note snapiti

Even the 5th Dimension saw this happening -

Would you like to ride the beautiful NZX
Would you like to ride the beautiful NZX
We could float among the stars together, you and I
For we can fly we can fly
Up, up and away

My beautiful, my beautiful NZX
The world's a nicer place in my beautiful NZX
It wears a nicer face in my beautiful NZX
We can sing a song and sail along as the market rises
For we can fly we can fly
Up, up and away

winner69
15-03-2012, 10:52 AM
Hoop ... that day might be today

We are truely UP UP and AWAY aren't we ...... even the dogs are going up on the rising tide as they say

All that kiwisaver money finding a home ..... fundies moving into shares instead of holding boring old bonds ..... and of course the Mike Hosking impact .... UP UP and AWAY

moimoi
15-03-2012, 11:01 AM
Toot Toot !!

GTM 3442
16-03-2012, 09:07 PM
Don't we normally yun up to May and then tank? ... If so, control yourselves folks :)

Surely it'll be different this time ?

CJ
20-03-2012, 09:58 AM
Has anyone seen a workpaper of how the new index calc rules would work out if applied now.

The media have picked up on a few such as contact (about half current rating) but up for SKycity and FBU. How is Vector gong to fair, is it gong to be 1/4ed given the trust owns 75%. Will the new calc push any companies out and pull others in?

I hope this has been factored into CEN already (it has been know for a while).

Silverlight
20-03-2012, 12:26 PM
Has anyone seen a workpaper of how the new index calc rules would work out if applied now.

The media have picked up on a few such as contact (about half current rating) but up for SKycity and FBU. How is Vector gong to fair, is it gong to be 1/4ed given the trust owns 75%. Will the new calc push any companies out and pull others in?

I hope this has been factored into CEN already (it has been know for a while).

Check the NZX memo: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/154921.pdf

Vector's 75% holding is already taken care of under the current methodology, so nothing major changes for Vector. Contact, AIA and Sky TV are the biggest losers, but the market worked that out in December, and that has been Contact's main price driver since then.