All Ords Index. [Archive] - Sharetrader Forum

drillfix

11-06-2009, 11:15 PM

I don't short the Aus market, LM.
The chart is just as relevant for those that trade "long" only.
It tells us when to be be cautious, when to be in the market - and when to be out of it.

Nice Chart Phraedrus,

Athough, it keeps showing us what part of the eventual Bubble we are in, or going to be in. So I guess your right, an indication on when to be OUT which recently after what we have been through, is hard to know as this may just be another curve ball with lots of feel good tell signs, and meanwhile back at the ranch, there could be alot more NEW/OLD untold realities that we still are yet to experience.

Anyways, Bahhhhh, thats my madness for this evening :rolleyes:

dragonz

12-06-2009, 08:48 AM

OK this is probaly a stupid question but how can I trade an index? For example I want to buy S&P/ASX All Ords (Gold) [XGD].

Lego_Man

12-06-2009, 09:40 AM

Footsie

12-06-2009, 10:16 AM

a modified version of your normal charts to make it ultra simplistic

A basic TA system like this should be complusory for all who consider themselves serious investors and/or those who have serious % of their Net worth in the market

It needs to be included in a dummy's guide to investing.

Fortunately/unfortunately most investors and funds dont use this kind of system, which means it continues to work well.

dragonz

12-06-2009, 10:23 AM

Certainly wasnt questioning the usefulness of the graph, quite the opposite. Just commenting on how it would be of additional use to someone who played the short side - potentially you have twice the upside.

I agree with you Legoman. Personaly I have every intention of short trading should the market do a reversal. I also intend to introduce Margin trading as well once I have grown my capital to a certain amount. I think once you have developed a workable system in a up treading market , it makes sense to turn this system upside down/back to front and use it should the maket start downtreading.

Lego_Man

12-06-2009, 11:07 AM

Who are you with dragonz? As far as i know no NZ online brokerage service permits shorting - so i presume you have gone full-service?

dragonz

12-06-2009, 11:21 AM

Who are you with dragonz? As far as i know no NZ online brokerage service permits shorting - so i presume you have gone full-service?

Im with cmc markets and direct broking. Should the market turn then I believe you can shop around the full service brokers to see if they have the share your wanting to short. Its one of the things I'll have to investigate. Probaly an Aussie based service would be best.

tricha

12-06-2009, 11:50 PM

I don't short the Aus market, LM.
The chart is just as relevant for those that trade "long" only.
It tells us when to be be cautious, when to be in the market - and when to be out of it.

yeah but it does not tell us tomorrow, :confused:

small fish

13-06-2009, 12:21 AM

Gee Tricha you must be about the only person on ST who doesn't appreciate the effort that Phaedrus goes to let alone the merit of some basic TA.

What does it matter if it doesn't tell you tomorrow. From his chart if you chose not to act for a few days after the sell signal you would still be out ahead with the majority of your capital.

drillfix

13-06-2009, 01:04 AM

OK this is probaly a stupid question but how can I trade an index? For example I want to buy S&P/ASX All Ords (Gold) [XGD].

There are many ways, here is one way, method,

http://www.ninjatrader.com/webnew/subscribe_trading_platform.htm

I have a buddy in the states whom never invests in stocks, and he has for quite some time told me to invest in Sectors instead.
Perhaps I should have listed to him..lol

Saying that, I never got his exact details for whom he was with (in the US) trading.

AMR

13-06-2009, 01:11 AM

CFD spreads for sectors are pretty high actually. Index spreads are reasonable but only for longer term trading.

Drillfix's buddy must have been doing sector tracking ETFs.

winner69

20-06-2009, 11:41 AM

Despite a down week on the ASX the uptrend from the march lows still in place. ASX200 weekly close at 3,900 stil higher than a few weeks ago.

Fib support/resistance at just under 4,000 .... last week was just a breather and once 4,000 is broken through again next stop is 4,500 in a month or so.

... but those charts closely

AMR

27-06-2009, 02:20 AM

winner69

27-06-2009, 07:52 AM

My "index switch" has shown a loss of momentum overthe past few days. Both the slow stochastics and the momentum indicator have crossed below the 50 line. We are still below the 200 day EMA and the long term downtrendline. RSI is still not there yet. Also we are in a tight trading range between 3970 and 3740, that break above 4000 looks like a false breakout? Not bearish yet but no longer bullish intermediate term.

I look at these things like you say you might .... weekly

The ASX200 was up for the week (all that 'noise' early in the week faded away) and the recent uptrend remains in place.

As you say maybe a bit weaker than a few weeks ago but still an uptrend

Interesting there is a Fib level at just under 4,000 .... get over that for a few weeks and hey its all uphill to close to 4,500 for the next hurdle.

Market conditions still like +ve on the ASX

winner69

30-06-2009, 01:21 PM

I look at these things like you say you might .... weekly

The ASX200 was up for the week (all that 'noise' early in the week faded away) and the recent uptrend remains in place.

As you say maybe a bit weaker than a few weeks ago but still an uptrend

Interesting there is a Fib level at just under 4,000 .... get over that for a few weeks and hey its all uphill to close to 4,500 for the next hurdle.

Market conditions still like +ve on the ASX

ASX200 over 4000 looking good later this week ... David Jones says they lead the economy into the down but also lead the economy out ..... and great guidance today

That 4500 might be sooner than i thought ... maybe 5000 by Xmas

Phaedrus

30-06-2009, 02:29 PM

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AllOrds630.gif

tricha

03-07-2009, 07:06 AM

ASX200 over 4000 looking good later this week ... David Jones says they lead the economy into the down but also lead the economy out ..... and great guidance today

That 4500 might be sooner than i thought ... maybe 5000 by Xmas

Care to re-visit this prediction and see that green shoot u have Phaedrus, change it to brown please.

Because unfortunately ASX is stiil coupled to the DOW, monkey sse monkey do.

/marketstate/country/us Dow Jones Industrial Average (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/INDU)
Countdown to close

INDU (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/INDU)
/quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed
8,330

Change
-173.74 -2.04%

tricha

03-07-2009, 11:45 PM

Care to re-visit this prediction and see that green shoot u have Phaedrus, change it to brown please.

Because unfortunately ASX is stiil coupled to the DOW, monkey sse monkey do.

/marketstate/country/us Dow Jones Industrial Average (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/INDU)
Countdown to close

INDU (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/INDU)
/quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed
8,330

Change
-173.74 -2.04%

green shoots, hmm, as u wish ;)

TA can not see the wood from the trees.?

Phaedrus

04-07-2009, 10:23 AM

See that green shoot u have Phaedrus, change it to brown please.] Sorry Tricha - no can do. You see, the AllOrds index is still in an uptrend. The plot will remain green until the market weakens.

Green shoots, hmm, as you wish......TA cannot see the wood from the trees Tricha, the phrase "you can't see the wood for the trees" means that you can't see the whole situation clearly because you're looking too closely at small details, usually because you're too closely involved. The 6+ year AllOrds chart as posted above gives a superb overview of the whole situation. By focussing on short-term movements of the Dow, you are missing the big picture. Tricha, it is YOU that can't see the wood for the trees!!!!

The market has now been in a steep uptrend for 4 months. Spectacular and profitable as this has been, such a rapid increase cannot be sustained and we must expect a correction. Such retracements are a normal, natural part of a healthy market. They do not denote the end of Western civilisation as we know it and should not be a cause for panic. They are a time for caution - no more, no less.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AllOrds74.gif

The Dow closed the week down 2.6%. Should the AllOrds drop a similar percentage on Monday, it will close at 3773. This would end the current uptrend, breach previous support at 3793, break below the short-term moving average plotted here and begin a perfectly normal expected retracement ....coloured blue like all the others.

Phaedrus

06-07-2009, 12:30 PM

Colour coding divides the market into 4 separate phases. The colours are derived from the combination of multiple technical indicators.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AllOrds76.gif

airedale

06-07-2009, 02:25 PM

Great Charts, thanks Phaedrus:)

Lego_Man

06-07-2009, 07:21 PM

Edit: nevermind

Brut

06-07-2009, 07:58 PM

Hi Phaedrus,

I don't post charts on here but this is the way I see it. (I could be totally wrong).

All Ords 3784. (AS OF CLOSE TODAY)

I see major support at 3650, I tend to favour good support at 3725 holding. A recovery of 3815 should represent a signal for resumption of the major uptrend. Strong resistance at 3935 then 4005 & 4085.

Medium term target for me is 4450 so I'm still bullish

tricha

06-07-2009, 11:26 PM

Phaedrus - "Todays 1.1% fall to 3784 was of sufficient magnitude to end the uptrend that began in March, and to confirm a new downtrend. "

U have finally seen the wood from the trees, dam fine rear vision mirror u have there Phaedrus :)

There were no green shoots, just smoke and mirrors. ;)

tricha

07-07-2009, 08:31 PM

Interesting stuff, most of the big rallies were in "The Great Depression" and thats why I was hoping u would do a comparision "Master of Charts"

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

The spring rally in stocks has ended. It went out with a bang in early June with a break above the 200-day moving average in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The spring rally is marked as the 3rd biggest rally in the past 100 years.

Begin
End
Days
Performance
3/31/1938
11/9/1938
153
59.8%
11/13/1929
4/17/1930
106
48.0%
3/9/2009
6/12/2009
67
39.9%
10/5/1931
11/9/1931
23
35.0%
6/2/1931
7/3/1931
23
27.6%
4/11/1939
9/2/1939
107
26.0%
1/5/1932
3/8/1932
43
24.7%
11/20/2008
1/6/2009
30
24.2%
12/16/1930
2/24/1932
46
23.4%

Lego_Man

08-07-2009, 01:22 PM

Phaedrus, referring to your original chart - what would it take for your line to go red again?

winner69

09-07-2009, 08:15 AM

Stronf finish to the ASX yesterday .... and the US markets getting a boost (from somewhere) near the end of the day to finish up signals a positive day on the ASX today

The line on P's charts might even get back into green territory

Phaedrus

22-10-2009, 09:06 AM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds1022.gif
Ripway seems to have crashed, taking all my charts with it. This chart is hosted on Photobucket - let's hope I have better luck there.

Phaedrus

05-03-2010, 10:21 AM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds35.gif

Ketel One

05-03-2010, 10:32 AM

Thanks for the MSI chart update Phaedrus. Simply beautiful! (or perhaps beautifully simple? - both seem apt actually!)

Toulouse - Luzern

05-03-2010, 02:51 PM

Hi
My thanks also.
Not too much of a stretch from these green shoots to break 5000...

Phaedrus

06-03-2010, 12:26 PM

These 2 indices generally perform pretty much in tandem so any exception to this is a matter of some interest.

On 11/2/10 the SP500 turned green. Interestingly, on the very same day, the All Ords bottomed out and began to rise - although it was another 19 days before it too turned green.

Anyone buying back into the Aus market of the basis of the SP500 strength would have timed their re-entry to absolute perfection.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrdsSP36.gif

Footsie

06-03-2010, 01:46 PM

so what does this mean? if we had bought when you say then it would have been violating the rules of engagement???
ie NO BUYIng until green

ratkin

06-03-2010, 02:14 PM

Anyone buying back into the Aus market of the basis of the SP500 strength would have timed their re-entry to absolute perfection.

They would also be flouting the rules of your system and buying in a downtrending (red) market

macduffy

06-03-2010, 03:55 PM

Picky, picky, guys!

Phaedrus is merely making the point that the two indices appear to move uncannily in tandem.

Phaedrus

06-03-2010, 03:59 PM

So what does this mean? If we had bought when you say then it would have been violating the rules of engagement??? ie NO BUYING until greenI now just report on the market strength, Footsie. What individual readers do with this information (if anything!) is entirely up to them. You will have to draw up your own "rules of engagement". People like Ratkin like to buy when the Index is red, for example. Contrarians like Dr Who see it as a good time to pick up "bargains". Cautious investors might prefer to wait for dark-green before buying. I wait for the light-green. We all have different approaches and different risk tolerance.

It is good to see that some of you, at least, are capable of independent thought - for example :-
"P's MSI of Dow and S&P were enough to entice me back into ASX today". Should I have censured this logical, intelligent use of the Market Strength Indicator simply because the AllOrds was still red? Of course not! This was someone thinking for themselves and making excellent use of the MSI.

They would also be flouting the rules of your system and buying in a downtrending (red) marketThey were buying on the fact that the SP500 and Dow were both showing strength (green) and not unreasonably counting on other markets following their lead.
As usual.
Which they did.
Good call eh?

ratkin

06-03-2010, 04:12 PM

Sounds like you are trying to distance yourself from your own system , maybe because this time it didnt give a very timely signal?
A typical chartist trick . Showing the S and P chart and somehow using it to justify buying aussie stocks (during a downtrending red ) is a typical smoke and mirrors chartists trick.

I would of thought more of you if you had just stuck to your guns , you dont have to try and be perfect everytime. We all know many trades fail etc. Its nothing to be ashamed of . No need to try and deflect attention away from your system onto another that worked better this time (buy aussie when S and P turns.) Thats just backfitting of the worst sort.

Im sure many who followed your system and have patiently waited for the buying signal will feel they have been short changed , and i cant say i would blame them

STRAT

06-03-2010, 06:36 PM

Geez Ratkin,

Market Strength Indicator not
Market Buying system or
Market Trading System.

Indicator ( something that monitors, demonstrates or points out )

what does it point out?

Market strength.

Its been crystal clear to me that the purpose behind this tool is to assist in, not dictate trading behaviour or timing. Surely Im not the only one?

Phaedrus is fastidious with being literal and precise more than any other poster on this site that I can think of and yet time and time again hes pummelled with misrepresentation and misinterpretation. I cant remember how many versions there have been but I think most changes were to the wording regarding action to be taken in the various points in the chart for exactly this reason, in an attempt to avoid misinterpretation. All versions have said the same thing to me. For example "no buying permitted" was a recommendation, not an order or instruction. Why did I interpret it his way? Because its a Market Strength INDICATOR not a Market Trading System. Clearly because it was open to interpretation is the reason Phaedrus changed it.

Its seldom in this world you get something good let alone very good for free.

I use the DOW as an indicator for the ASX. Using trend lines I found the DOW, S&P and ASX all signalled change of direction at more or less the same time. If the MSI fired on the S&P early then this is an additional possible use for the tool if it is repeatable. Not a glitch in the system.

If yall want something that tells you when to buy and sell I would suggest a broker. Good luck with that course of action.

Phaedrus,
You have helped me with my trading so many times and in so many ways I dont know where to start. Doubt I could get better help if I was paying for it for which I am extremely grateful.
Please dont let the ankle biters send you into despair:(

Phaedrus

06-03-2010, 06:52 PM

Sounds like you are trying to distance yourself from your own system .Distance myself?..... from my own system? I am keeping to it! What part of "I wait for the light-green" don't you understand?

....maybe because this time it didnt give a very timely signal?It most certainly DID give a timely signal. Even better than last time in fact. Can you demonstrate any better system?

I would of thought more of you if you had just stuck to your guns.Ratkin, I am sticking to my guns. This is exactly the same MSI system as always. I simply compared its application to 2 different indices, drawing attention to the fact that, atypically, they had not moved in tandem recently. This may well be something worth looking out for in the future.

No need to try and deflect attention away from your system onto another that worked better this time. For God's sake man, it's the same system!!!! You want to forbid intermarket comparisons? Outlaw the possible use of any future divergences? You think my system is so good that it cannot be improved at all? I don't!

Thats just backfitting of the worst sort. Jess9 noticed the US signals and acted on them to advantage. I draw attention to the divergence and get accused of backfitting! ...... "of the worst sort" no less!!! Ratkin, surely even you must know that backfitting is where you alter indicator parameters to give better historical results. The MSI has no variable parameters and thus remains unchanged.

Im sure many who followed your system and have patiently waited for the buying signal will feel they have been short changed.....Because the Australian buy signal lagged behind the US signal for once? Don't be ridiculous Ratkin - only a complete idiot would think that. You are shooting the messenger here - I don't control the markets!

.....and i cant say i would blame themThat's because you, alone, Ratkin, somehow haven't yet grasped what this system does. It provides an objective independent means of assessing market strength. No more, no less. The comparison chart highlighted just how closely linked these 2 Indices are. The recent divergence would have been of great interest to market followers.

Many people here on ST make good use of information like this, Ratkin - it seems a shame that you can't. A greater awareness of general market sentiment would help you a lot.

ratkin

06-03-2010, 06:58 PM

They were buying on the fact that the SP500 and Dow were both showing strength (green) and not unreasonably counting on other markets following their lead.
As usual.
Which they did.
Good call eh?

You consider it a good call that people were buying australian stocks when your system was deep in the red?

If the market had gone down in the last few days instead of up , then you wouldnt of been saying it was a good call , you would of been pointing out to them where they went wrong, and pointing out how marvelous your system was in comparison, while berating them for buying in a downtrend

Phaedrus

06-03-2010, 08:47 PM

You consider it a good call that people were buying australian stocks when your system was deep in the red? It was a good call because it worked and because the buy decision was quite logically based on the fact that the MSI system had the US indices clearly green. History tells us that the SP500 and the AllOrds indices generally turn at the same time, so Jess9 was quite reasonably counting on this relationship holding good. Which it did. It was a good call, based on a logical hypothesis. It was not a call that I would have made, but it was a good one nevertheless, providing a nice illustration of yet another way of utilising MSI signals to advantage.

If the market had gone down in the last few days instead of up, then you wouldnt of been saying it was a good call, you would of been pointing out to them where they went wrong Dead right! I would have been saying that it was a bad call and that the AllOrds was always the best index to apply to the Aus market. I would be saying that this was evidence that the US indices demonstrably did NOT lead the way for the Aus market and that the 2 markets were essentially unrelated.
But that is not what happened is it?
As per usual, the AllOrds was led by the US indices. In this instance, the SP500 "buy" signal was much earlier. This finding identifies grounds for further study. Is it best to act on whichever signal comes first? Would using the SP500 across the board provide superior signals for the Aus market? Could the SP500 perhaps give the better entry signals but the AllOrds give the better exit signals? Is it in fact best, overall, to totally ignore the US indices?
Backtesting will give the answers to all of these questions.

ratkin

06-03-2010, 10:31 PM

.

Dead right! I would have been saying that it was a bad call and that the AllOrds was always the best index to apply to the Aus market. I would be saying that this was evidence that the US indices demonstrably did NOT lead the way for the Aus market and that the 2 markets were essentially unrelated.
But that is not what happened is it?
.

Cute as usual , its easy to always be right after the event
, one way of never being wrong.

Fact is your system wasnt linked to the s and p 500 it was purely based on the ASX chart, which has only just given a buy signal.
That being the case why not just post that chart by itself , rather than hinting that it was obvious 19 days ago that it was going to go green because the american chart did.
Like i said before, just more smoke and mirrors.

STRAT

06-03-2010, 10:43 PM

hinting that it was obvious 19 days ago .Ratkin are you in need of new glasses or just deliberately being obtuse :cursing:

ratkin

06-03-2010, 11:23 PM

You lot should form your own sect , with Mr P as guru.

STRAT

06-03-2010, 11:36 PM

You lot should form your own sect , with Mr P as guru.lol, Now thats just childish.:lol:

fihr

07-03-2010, 01:00 AM

It's wise to take other market indices into account when establishing risk parameters for trading. No one would disagree with that. Also, Phaedrus is a pretty good guru, which just means teacher, as opposed to God. I'm now using his graphs as another layer in my trading plan. Thanks Phaedrus!

ratkin

07-03-2010, 05:23 AM

;)I was on my second bottle of wine when i made the sect comment so i wouldnt over analyse it too much.

Now im sober there is one comment made my Mr P that suprises me . He has spent many months telling people not to buy stocks in a downtrending market. His system is very clear on this.
However , he appears to now be saying it was ok for people to start buying stocks 19 days ago in a downtrading index , simply because another index \went green. The logic being that , that index usually predicted what his system index was going to do.

By this logic its ok to buy stocks during a crash on the ground that history shows that markets eventually recover.

In future then we wont see Mr P critisising people for buying stocks during a market correction? Because after all they are only using their initiative and using their own logic .and buying into a market that backtesting shows will recover

Jess9

07-03-2010, 08:08 AM

Hi Ratkin. More experienced posters than my self have noted that the MSIs (multi markets) are ONLY intended as high level sentiment guide. Do what you will with them as P says. That said, I had previously noted Strats strong correlation graph between ASX and key American indices (a few pages back on the bear thread) which confirmed what I suspected from past observations. When I saw P's graph last week, I therefore chose to accept the risk of "jumping the gun" re ASX entry. I did so in full awareness of market sentiment and risk etc (because of P's MSIs). My decision to enter met my tolerance for risk (each individual is obviously different). After I entered I was watching (and still watch) markets very very closely and would (will) have sold all in a flash had circumstances changed negatively, a move back to red etc. My ASX stocks have good liquidity so exit is no problem.

The MSI to me shows safer times to be in. Thats all. It won't prevent buying a "dud" stock. Lets not confuse the MSI with other stock specific TA tools. Thats another game entirely ; )

Thanks Phaedrus, and to all other posters who contribute with good points and questions to this thread. Keep posting. Our TA collective and personal discipline will improve : )

This site is a great platform for learning in a fun and entertaining way.

Cheers Sharetrader fam!

07-03-2010, 08:45 AM

He has spent many months telling people not to buy stocks in a downtrending market. His system is very clear on this.
However , he appears to now be saying it was ok for people to start buying stocks 19 days ago in a downtrading index , simply because another index \went green. The logic being that , that index usually predicted what his system index was going to do.My take on what I have read is that P is sticking to his strategy. He is just saying that someone else's strategy worked very well in this situation. I think he has also pointed out that it doesn't always work which is why he is not adopting it.

percy

07-03-2010, 10:27 AM

My take on what I have read is that P is sticking to his strategy. He is just saying that someone else's strategy worked very well in this situation. I think he has also pointed out that it doesn't always work which is why he is not adopting it.

My thoughts exactly CJ.As I have stated a number of times I find Phaedrus's charts most helpful and his comments words of wisdom.His advice is both saving me money and making me money!!!

tricha

08-03-2010, 11:13 PM

My thoughts exactly CJ.As I have stated a number of times I find Phaedrus's charts most helpful and his comments words of wisdom.His advice is both saving me money and making me money!!!

WELL, WELL. WELL what do I make of this.

The market fell nearly 250 points and we decided to hit the panic button.:eek2:

Aim to be totally out of the market. :t_down::t_down:

And the market fell another 250 points.:cool:

But the market have now gone up 250 + points and no green line.:confused:

They do not call this the scary market for nothing :scared:

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Phaedrus http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=290912#post290912)
Alas, alack - this statement is no longer true.

Today's drop did take us into new territory, specifically :-

(1) The MSI turned Red.
(2) The SMA88 was broken.
(3) The trendline was broken.
(4) The Stochastic oscillator (80) turned negative.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds127.gif

I find it immensely encouraging that my "automatic" Market Strength Indicator fired simultaneously with other indicators that had been specifically tailored to this uptrend. I hope that you, too, also find some comfort in this!

STRAT

09-03-2010, 12:31 AM

Gudday Tricha.
This is what I make of it.

Using this tool is the simplest way. Treating it as a direct instruction to get in or out of the Market one would have sold up everything the last week in January and bought back in the first week in March.

If I apply that to some stocks I have owned this would be the outcome.
Lets assume Im a fundie and from a fundamental perspective I am compelled to own these stocks so returning to them is a given. Also allow me the privilege of doing a little thinking on my own in that I choose the day within those weeks to make my sales and purchases. I promise not to take the best or worst for the sake of proving a point :D

CUE sell 21.5c buy back 19.5c gain 10%
ITC sell 53.0c buy back 45.5c gain 17%
VPE sell 31.0c buy back 24.5c gain 27%
OROOA sell 0.2c buy back 0.1c gain 100%
BKP sell 0.5c buy back 0.4c gain 25%
WCL sell 48.0c buy back 41.0c gain 17%

Plus having sold would have meant I had an insurance policy in place had the market continued to go south and peace of mind while everyone who held through was lying awake each night wondering what the US markets would inflict on tomorrows trading on the ASX.

Assuming each holding had an equal value thats a 33% gain overall just for having an insurance policy in place.

Tell me whats wrong with that result from using this tool is the simplest way possible.

Seems pretty good to me :D

Disc the above are examples only but all in all not far from what I have been doing.

Phaedrus

09-03-2010, 04:12 PM

The Australian AllOrds index and the S&P 500 USA index move closely in tandem. I have always maintained that because they are so close, no significant advantage can be gained by applying conventional technical analysis to the SP500 and using those signals in the Australian market. I argued that whatever effect the US market had on the Aus market was already "built in" to the AllOrds index. I found no useable, tradeable difference between the US and Aus indices - signals generally fired together.
Jess9 bought back into the market on an SP500 MSI signal that was not (at that time) showing on the AllOrds MSI plot. The AllOrds signal did not follow until 19 days later. This worked out very well for Jess9, but raises some interesting questions.
Was this simply an aberrant "one-off" fluke that may never be repeated?
Would SP500 MSI signals applied to the AllOrds perform any better than AllOrds based MSI signals?

It can be seen from backtesting 7 years of comparitive data, that SP500 MSI signals precede AllOrds MSI signals surprisingly often (light blue lines). The reverse is quite rare. Since SP500 signals are generally earlier than AllOrds MSI signals, they should therefore be more profitable, on average.

Backtesting shows us that the Market Strength Indicator functions as a type of trend indicator. This means that if ever the market becomes trendless (goes into a trading range) it will generate a string of alternating signals, as marked within the magenta elipses. These will tend to be losing trades, albeit with very small losses incurred. If needbe, this could be addressed by adding a filter such as the ADX or ADXR to warn those that can't see from the chart that the index is crabbing sideways.

BACKTEST RESULTS

Standalone AllOrds MSI signals gave an average annual gain of 13.1%.

Generating both AllOrds and SP500 signals and acting on whichever one fired first :- Average annual gain 18.4%.

Using only SP500 derived signals and applying them to the AllOrds :- Average annual gain 20%.

By way of comparison, Average Buy/Hold annual gain over the same period was 7.8%.

Keep in mind that all of these MSI backtests were performed using arbitrary Buy/Sell default values of >0.4 and <-0.4. Optimisation will find the "best" values to use and will accordingly give even better results.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrdscfSP.gif

ratkin

09-03-2010, 07:43 PM

Do those comparisons with buy and hold include brokerage fees? If not its a rather unfair comparison. Must be about 30 transactions on the s and p chart . Even at 1% brokerage that woud add up.

Good work by the way , nobody could accuse you of being lazy

Phaedrus

09-03-2010, 08:54 PM

Do those comparisons with buy and hold include brokerage fees? Even at 1% brokerage that woud add up.Yes. Brokerage has been deducted at the rate of 0.12% per transaction.

peat

13-03-2010, 09:01 AM

An interesting read : http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-investment/news/article.cfm?c_id=71&objectid=10631651&pnum=0
starts off in reference to NZ now being included in the The Global Investment Returns Yearbook (GIRY) but well worth noting that

"The honour, however, of best-performing market in the GIRY goes to Australia, with an average compound real return of 7.5 per cent a year. A dollar invested in Australian shares in 1900 would be worth $2850 today in real terms."

Footsie

13-03-2010, 01:55 PM

Hoop

15-03-2010, 12:26 PM

drillfix

15-03-2010, 05:32 PM

what does everyone think the chances are of the All ords breaking 5,000 and holding in this current move up (i.e. in the next few weeks)?

or do people think we will hit 5,000 and sell off, therefore remaining within the trading range

guess it depends on the US to a larege degreee

Footsie, IMO, as much as this may or could be a possibility, I was reading the weekly post on hc from Redbacka (hc poster) whom outlines or does some sector analysis on top of also doing indexes on a weekly basis.

The sector analysis he outlined was that it appeared to show lots of insto flow into more defensive sectors and whilst metals and energy were on the move it could signal a potential shift at some stage in which case the obvious insto's would be fine, but what about the rest of the sectors? Who knows, but the all ords seems to need a breather for another leg up.

Once it gets this leg up, I wonder if this will address your question or will that be a mark in which we hit some resistance to throw our markets in a down turn, and again, if so then by how much. I guess we need to continually monitor support as well as global conditions.

One thing is for sure though, if or should it start happening, it happens fast, and all those who wish to remain basked in the delight of this upward trend may get caught off guard so IMO lets take each day/week with both hands on the handle bars.

winner69

15-03-2010, 06:48 PM

Chart below suggests that DOW is not all that overvalued at the mo .... but at the upper linit which might mean we see a bit of range trading for a while

The ASX200 seems to be going that way. From March to October last year there was that steady rise from 3146 to a high of 4859 in October. Since then it has an a bit of an up and down ride but has been contained within a 38.2% and 50.0% Fib levels of 4544 and 4967 (Fib levels based on the peak of a few years ago to the March 09 low). The ASX200 has respected both these levels since going above the 4544 level last September

It wouldn't surprise me to see the ASX trade within these levels for the rest of the year

In respect of those DOW PEs i know Hoop likes the 10 year average figure but thsi chart does show where we are at the moment. My hypothesis is still playing out - this long term secular bear market wont be over until the PEs get down to the green line on the chart .... maybe in 3 to 5 years time

Phaedrus

15-03-2010, 10:26 PM

The process of optimisation involves backtesting indicators using historical data, with a view to finding the settings that best suit your aims. You can optimise for the greatest capital gain, the fewest number of trades, the best win/loss ratio, the lowest drawdown, the smallest number of losing trades etc etc. The MSI plot itself has no parameters, but we can vary the levels at which the plot is deemed to be "strong" or "weak".

If we optimise for the greatest gains, an entry trigger level of 0.1 is best. This is the "light green" entry signal. If we want a more conservative entry signal, one with fewer losing trades, an entry threshold of 0.5 (dark green) would be better. Of course, overall returns will be lower (see table). The MSI system, backtested over the last 7 years, has given returns approximately double those achieved by "buying and holding".

Similarly, the MSI trigger levels can be separately optimised for the S&P500 Index. Optimised MSI signals generated from the SP500 can then be applied to the AllOrds to see whether, on average, this would provide superior returns. In other words, we can investigate whether the SP500 leads the AllOrds or not. If it does, then this is very useful information. Results as per chart - more than triple the Buy/Hold profits and more than 50% higher profit than the "standalone" optimised MSI AllOrds results.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/MSIss-1.gif

Table shows compounded gains from an initial investment of $100,000. 7 year period. Brokerage 0.12%/transaction. Figures rounded.

To me, the conclusion that, over the last 7 years, the MSI AllOrds signals have generally followed the SP500 MSI signals is inescapable. Furthermore, this fact can be utilised to give higher profits. The SP500 derived signals are not always better than the direct AllOrds signals, but over time, the difference really adds up. A couple of recent examples are shown here. You can see that the firing order was SP500 then AllOrds light green then AllOrds dark green. The March signals were identical. The trend ribbon along the bottom of the chart gives the SP500 derived MSI status.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds315.gif

Hoop

16-03-2010, 12:33 AM

Interesting comparison between the two index charts ...SP500 and All Ords by Phaedrus..... and Footsies question
The middle of last year I wrote on the Goldilocks and the three Bears thread that the S&P was lagging and following the All Ords. Since October the situation seemed to have changed somewhat. The S&P500 has caught up to be about the same cyclic bull market maturity as the All Ords ....or has it?

No point duplicating the post so
see my latest Goldilocks and the 3 Bears (FTSE100 DOW S&P500) post (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7008-Goldilocks-and-the-3-Bears-%28FTSE100-DOW-S-amp-P500&p=297043#post297043)

The S&P500 has caught up to be about the same cyclic bull market maturity as the All Ords ....or has it? It seems by Phaedrus marvelous work the answer to that question is that the S&P500 is now back in front which by Phaedrus research seems to be its natural position over recent (7 years) time..very interesting...amazing in fact that 2 indexes a world apart can signal each other..mostly by the leader S&P500 during that time.

The area of my interest and posting has been much narrower... the cyclic Bull market period from March 2009 to now.

As most of Phaedrus charts has been green on both All Ords and S&P500 since March 2009 its hard to notice the ebbs and flows of who's leading who between the two indexes and while these positional occurrences happened during the green phase the investors probably wouldn't care anyway and why would they?. However, it's nice to see though that my manual trend and S&R lines work (I think:confused:they work)...anyway to my delight I did notice that Phaedrus chart does show the All ord in front of the S&P500 leading up to Xmas..with Ords signaling gray (http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20081119213702AAIWgPd) warning signs then red before the S&P turned red....From then the S&P500 has caught up...I think we both agree here.

Phaedrus...a confirmation favour only a silly theorist would ask...Your MSI figures during the green phase...do they confirm that the All Ords was actually in front leading the S&P for that brief period of the first correction in June 2009 until Jan2010.

Why I ask is...that many of the major index charts bottomed out at the same time resulting in that perfect storm scenario. Shanghai lead the major indexes out of the bear in Nov 2008 the rest followed 3 months later..As indexes have individual behaviour with different oscillations I suspect that Shanghai may no longer lead now (and could be irrelevant) this would be a mistake to assume that we would still follow their path.. again 3 months later.

Phaedrus

16-03-2010, 11:57 AM

Phaedrus...Your MSI figures during the green phase...do they confirm that the All Ords was actually in front leading the S&P for that brief period of the first correction in June 2009 until Jan 2010?
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP500AllOrds316.gif

Hoop

16-03-2010, 12:35 PM

Thanks for that Phaedrus. Amazing stuff...a technical crystal ball in the making:)

..unfortunately it's disproved my assumptions ..oh well thats life ...incentive to improve and move on ...eh

Phaedrus

16-03-2010, 12:42 PM

It disproved my assumptions too, Hoop! I had always claimed that no significant advantage could be gained by using conventional technical analysis on the USA SP500 and applying those signals to the Australian market. Wrong!

Footsie

16-03-2010, 12:48 PM

excellent analysis. thanks

winner69

16-03-2010, 01:21 PM

I see the All Ords range trading for the rest this year .... between the 4500 and 5000 marks

In saying that there will be stocks that keep going up and some that will keep going down ... so success is being stock specific and keeping an eye on those charts

Sorry Phaedrus me mold mate for bastardising one of your specialties but I couldn't resist doing a bit of the prediction stuff

Hoop

17-03-2010, 11:07 AM

Today the S&P500 finally broke-out through the 1150 strong resistance. It was a hard resistance to break through, it took 4 days to do so...

Ok a breakout has occurred today which is bullish as the S&P500 Bull Market correction is technically a goneburger (..todays break out was the final confirmation...unless it is all a bull trap...a rare event). The primary uptrend has been reestablished and the 1150 level is now a support level.
This must be good news for the All Ords... perhaps it too may breakout above 4980 soon?
Winner69? 5000 under threat?;)

Lego_Man

07-04-2010, 12:13 PM

Speculative end of the market seems to be getting some wind in its sails again.

sharer

07-04-2010, 12:32 PM

Speculative end of the market seems to be getting some wind in its sails again.

With AllOrds up 12 today already & only 14 to go to magic 5000, irrational euphoria is stirring!
Time for cooler heads to pick up some of the coinage being tossed about? :)

Hoop

07-04-2010, 01:14 PM

With AllOrds up 12 today already & only 14 to go to magic 5000, irrational euphoria is stirring!
Time for cooler heads to pick up some of the coinage being tossed about? :)
Why sell against the trend??

Hoop

28-04-2010, 12:55 PM

With AllOrds up 12 today already & only 14 to go to magic 5000, irrational euphoria is stirring!
Time for cooler heads to pick up some of the coinage being tossed about? :)

In hindsight so far.. that was a good move Sharer well done.

The index only got up to an intraday high of 5086 on the 15th of April...then turned down

Today atm 4831....
4900 major support line busted:(
11 week uptrend line busted:(
4500 post correctional bottoms to be revisited?? (small support at 4700)
Another bull trap experienced:mad ;::confused: or could it be a bear trap this time !!

Late sudden drop in metals not a good sign
Todays chart is looking Ugly:p

sharer

28-04-2010, 02:21 PM

In hindsight so far.. that was a good move Sharer well done.
...
11 week uptrend line busted:(

Thanks Hoop. I follow all your posts with interest & hope to learn something. If i ever get it right it is just a lucky amateur's lurch :mellow:

... Late sudden drop in metals not a good sign
Todays chart is looking Ugly:p
Yes, i've been pondering the same sort of thing, as i look to reinvest modest profits taken from "speculative" stocks into something more "solid". My "short list" has got even shorter lately - e.g. the BHP chart fits your Ugly category, maybe it could be on the Buy list soon, if we can spot signs of the present sharp fall ending.
More worrying is your note of recent trends in metals. If this fits the idea of the long-forecast slowing & consolidation in China's economy, the investment prospects change very quickly.

wbosher

28-04-2010, 02:32 PM

Hang on to something, here we go again. :eek2:

Good chance to get some cheap shares again. :t_up:

trackers

28-04-2010, 02:39 PM

asx200 down 1.5%.. DJIA/S&P500/Nasdaq futures currently in the Green...

I'm personally not hitting the sell trigger quite yet, happy to wait out the week at this stage...

Footsie

28-04-2010, 03:03 PM

asx back at 4500 - if it gets there -would probably put the overall index on a p/e of around 10x

make up your own mind as to whether you think that is good buying or not.

STRAT

28-04-2010, 03:57 PM

Actually I havent been hit too hard today. Bit top heavy in energy/oil stocks mind you. Considering the number of specs I have I thought Id get hammered. Im not too worried
.
.
.
.

Yet :p

trackers

29-04-2010, 07:35 AM

asx200 down 1.5%.. DJIA/S&P500/Nasdaq futures currently in the Green...

I'm personally not hitting the sell trigger quite yet, happy to wait out the week at this stage...

ASX ended 1.2% down.

DOW up 0.65%, Gold to new highs, and OIL up on waning US inventories. This makes me a happy chappy indeed

Phaedrus

29-04-2010, 09:29 AM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds429.gif

Note that the trend ribbon at the bottom of the chart is of the SP500 Index, not the AllOrds. Usually the two indices move closely in tandem, but overall, the SP500 signals are demonstrably more profitable than the AllOrds signals. See how the latest SP500 Buy signal (blue arrow) came in lower and over 2 weeks ahead of the AllOrds Buy signal. (Green arrow).

Translation :- The SP500 Index will provide good confirmation and possibly early warning of any significant weakness in the AllOrds Index.

STRAT

29-04-2010, 10:30 AM

Thanks Phaedrus

trackers

29-04-2010, 10:31 AM

Thanks Phaedrus, personally feel that the music may be about to stop (though your MSI is still well in green territory) so this is helpful info! Been keeping a keen eye on the DOW, but maybe should switch my attentions to the S&P500 instead...

Hoop

29-04-2010, 10:55 AM

Hi Phaedrus
Hmmm...just a query..It looks like your chart is Tuesdays chart not yesterdays chart ..your chart has the All Ords I presume at 4913.... Did yesterdays drop to close at 4854 changed your MSI chart colour to grey?

drillfix

29-04-2010, 11:39 AM

Thanks for the input there Phaedrus.

Here is my 2 bobs worth short term. Back to support at 4,862, perhaps a bounce and then up to maybe test the previous runs high, though at some stage I believe the problems will come at 5,170 + or - 35

Well, thats my crystal ball stuff done for the day :P

Phaedrus

29-04-2010, 11:46 AM

Whoops! My mistake. Sort of. I reckon the blame really lies with my dopey data supplier (Infoscan). It's bad enough that they run a day late with their AllOrds data, but far worse than that, when you do get it, the date embedded with the AllOrds data is always one day later than it should be. (ie the date supplied does not match the datapoint). I forgot to correct for this. Anyhow, here is the updated chart. Well spotted, Hoop!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds429-1.gif

Jay

29-04-2010, 01:13 PM

Phaedrus - Thnaks for that.
I did not know that re the All Ords. How do you correct it in Metastock, as I too get my EOD data from them.
Another question re their data, don't they say it has ben corrected for dividends splits etc etc, but it does not seem to be unless do I have to down load the data maually from time to time.
I use Oneclick to download and update the data each night.
Thanks again

Phaedrus

29-04-2010, 01:29 PM

If you want an up-to-date chart of the AllOrds, you have to utilise the "Downloader" and manually key in the latest figure, using the next days date.

Infoscan data is not corrected for dividends, splits, capital repayments etc. You can do that yourself if you want to, again by using the "Downloader" MetaStock utility. There is usually a very obvious "step" in the chart when you need to do this.

drillfix

29-04-2010, 03:09 PM

Which exact stocks are you holding KW, you must have bought in in the turbulent times surely?

Jay

29-04-2010, 04:24 PM

wbosher

29-04-2010, 05:20 PM

Hey Drillfix, I entered this year with a firm focus on fundamentals. I had a hunch the market would be volatile and go sideways, and rather than be right out of it, I wanted a portfolio that would weather any storms. Mostly technology and telecommunications, followed by property, and a couple of recruiters. I have no financials or mining shares. Top stocks in order are AMM, DTL, TPM, WEB, SMX, CDA, CPU. Very boring in the context of sharetrader I know!

If boring makes money, it's not really that boring is it? :D

Phaedrus

29-04-2010, 05:31 PM

Thought I read somewhere that Infoscan data was supposed to be correctedYou did - on their website :- "Data is fully adjusted for events such as share splits etc." I do not use "Oneclick" as you do and am unaware of its functionality, but I can assure you that Infoscan NZSX data as supplied to me is definitely NOT adjusted. Here are a couple of examples. Because I don't follow either of these stocks, I have not bothered to adjust them. Take a quick look at your charts of these two and you will be able to immediately tell whether your data is adjusted or not.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/GELnzx.gif

percy

29-04-2010, 07:32 PM

Yeah, but I have nobody to talk to about them on sharetrader :-( So I'm bored!

I allways listen to you.Brought AMM after your post and sold IRI which you and Lizard warned me about.I find it very hard to find good Aussie companies to follow.PE usually too high and yield without NZ tax credits too low.So your posts are keenly followed.

Jay

30-04-2010, 08:30 AM

[QUOTE=Phaedrus;302910]You did - on their website :- "Data is fully adjusted for events such as share splits etc." I do not use "Oneclick" as you do and am unaware of its functionality, but I can assure you that Infoscan NZSX data as supplied to me is definitely NOT adjusted. Here are a couple of examples. Because I don't follow either of these stocks, I have not bothered to adjust them. Take a quick look at your charts of these two and you will be able to immediately tell whether your data is adjusted or not.

Thanks Phaedrus
Didn't think i was seeing things.
Will check GEL. I did adjust NZX as i was doing some backtesting on some NZX top 50 stocks.

OneCLick downloads the EOD data and converts it to metastock format all with "1" click in theory.
However with the data being avaiable less than 5 minutes after close of the exchange I could not see how it could be.
Should take them to task about it !

Hoop

05-05-2010, 02:58 PM

In hindsight so far.. that was a good move Sharer well done.
POSTED 28th April 2010

The index only got up to an intraday high of 5086 on the 15th of April...then turned down

Today (28April) atm 4831.... Update Today (5May) 4661 atm
4900 major support line busted:(
11 week uptrend line busted:(
4500 post correctional bottoms to be revisited?? (small support at 4700) Small support didn't hold..busted. Lets hope the 4500 primary support holds otherwise we may be witnessing a death of the ailing cyclic bull
Another bull trap experienced:mad ;::confused: or could it be a bear trap this time !! Nope it was another bull trap:mad ;:

Late sudden drop in metals not a good sign ....oh boy!!! was that a omen to sell Equities & miner shares or what!!! remember these prices and internationally driven and had nothing to do with the Aussi 40%.
Todays chart is looking Ugly Its got uglier Warning:p
1234567890(make up my 10 characters to be able to post)

Hoop

05-05-2010, 06:53 PM

Practically speaking, prices have to come down in order for them to go back up. If as I expect, the index bounces around all year (4500 - 5000) then there are going to be mini selloffs and rallies. Not worried yet.
Yes KW there seems to be a large group of investors who think this is the likely scenario for the next few months...4500 -5000 trading range
Interesting for chartists today was that the minor 4700 support was busted so easily this morning at opening ended up being a resistance level that was tested later today and respected (closed 4692) ...so 4700 resistance is significant.....
Tomorrow ...??? Hmmm... needs extra buying pressure now to break that 4700 .
Further out ...keep an eye on that primary support 4500 zone

evilroyrule

05-05-2010, 08:28 PM

oh dear lord. china tanking 4% tonight. "hold on were going in (red)!"

although i guess this chinas reaction to the dow last night. so may not be a lead at all. cotcase

evilroyrule

05-05-2010, 09:00 PM

***** ** *******

Phaedrus

05-05-2010, 09:05 PM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds55.gif

trackers

06-05-2010, 10:38 AM

Thanks again for the update Phaedrus, I personally think that the 4500 support will be tested in the short-term - SP200 futures down 50 points (over 1%) overnight.

Sold 90% of portfolio yesterday at fairly big losses, think they may prove to be a good move, but you just don't know.. .The volatility at the moment is doing my head in.

Hoop

06-05-2010, 11:12 AM

The volatility at the moment is doing my head in.
Looking from the American point of view the VIX (Volatility index) shows no panic...possibly just another speed bump
.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Vix06052010.png

upside_umop

06-05-2010, 11:36 AM

This is true, Hoop. However, maybe a little different story for the ASX. Is there such an index for the ASX? OZ specific factors wont be factored into the VIX as above.

I suspect the VIX, or the equivalent for the ASX will be much higher...Krudd tax and the ETS have severely impacted on top of the greek fears for csg companies etc.

troyvdh

06-05-2010, 11:37 AM

Hoop...that puts "things" into perspective a little...cheers...is it time perhaps to (again) state that "bull markets climb a wall of worry"...gee I hope I got that right.

Phaedrus

06-05-2010, 11:44 AM

"The SP500 Index will provide good confirmation of any significant weakness in the AllOrds Index". As you can see from the chart below, the SP500 has not as yet "confirmed" the current AllOrds weakness. This is very interesting because the two indices generally move pretty much in tandem, often triggering on the same day. While it is not uncommon for the SP500 to lead the AllOrds, the reverse of this is unusual.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP50056.gif

I have proved (at least to my own satisfaction) that SP500 MSI signals applied to the AllOrds Index are, overall, more profitable than MSI signals derived directly from the AllOrds. This, of course, is not to say that SP500 derived signals are invariably better than AllOrds derived signals, but backtesting over many years shows that they are more profitable overall, as discussed in post #62 on page 5 and post #88 on page 6 of this thread.

Footsie

06-05-2010, 12:32 PM

so are you saying that because the sp500 has yet to trigger a red weak, that we should not be overly concerned that the All Ords is red? so hold off the selling ?

sharer

06-05-2010, 01:59 PM

so are you saying that because the sp500 has yet to trigger a red weak, that we should not be overly concerned that the All Ords is red? so hold off the selling ?

It's your money ... you are going to have to decide. Good luck !

beacon

06-05-2010, 02:00 PM

Interesting charts and insights Phaedrus and Hoop. Thanks. Regards ASX 200, the mining tax size in the backdrop of relentless OCR rises is denting ossie confidence. Was it the last straw?
Currently confident that this dip is artificial, at least for SPX 500, and will not last long. Europe is creating and abetting drama, yet the silent march to global recovery proceeds on regardless. Accumulating. Time will tell, as always ...

Footsie

06-05-2010, 03:18 PM

It's your money ... you are going to have to decide. Good luck !

Really, i was hoping you could hold my hand

trackers

06-05-2010, 03:20 PM

Looking from the American point of view the VIX (Volatility index) shows no panic...possibly just another speed bump
.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Vix06052010.png

Interesting Hoop, cheers.. Not sure those MA indicators are useful for much in this particular case?

Phaedrus

06-05-2010, 03:37 PM

So are you saying that because the SP500 has yet to trigger a red weak, that we should not be overly concerned that the All Ords is red?I think you should be concerned to some degree because this does denote obvious measurable weakness in the Aus market, but in the absence of equivalent US weakness it must have somewhat less significance. We have no way of knowing how good this individual signal will be - all we can do is backtest this indicator to see how well it has worked in the past. The easiest way to do that is to treat the Index as if it were a stock and "trade" it as such. The signals giving the most "profit" are considered to be the most accurate. Here are some backtest results :-

Standalone AllOrds MSI signals gave an average annual gain of 13.1%.
Generating both AllOrds and SP500 signals and acting on whichever one fired first :- Average annual gain 18.4%.
Using only SP500 derived signals and applying them to the AllOrds :- Average annual gain 20%.
By way of comparison, Average Buy/Hold annual gain over the same period was 7.8%.

...... so hold off the selling ?How you choose to react to these signals (if at all!) is entirely up to you, Footsie. It's your dime. There are some people here on ST who regard a red AllOrds as signifying a good time to buy, for example. For myself, market weakness like this means that I must act on all Sell signals (and I have been getting plenty of those lately). It also means that, for me, buying is proscribed. Each to his own though eh? It all comes down to individual opinion in the end, but I am always happier if I can demonstrate a logical basis for my decisions, some statistical evidence that the odds are in my favour. It is very easy to prove that the best time to buy is when the index is light green, for example. Unless, of course, you are a devout contrarian, in which case such evidence counts for nothing!!

Hoop

06-05-2010, 05:21 PM

Interesting Hoop, cheers.. Not sure those MA indicators are useful for much in this particular case?
Hi Trackers...probably right..also on a long term chart different setting would be preferred to get any useful information from them.
Normally, I don't post with either of them. This seems to be the default option for StockCharts.com. This time I was in a hurry and didn't remove them

fihr

06-05-2010, 06:24 PM

Well I have used the latest chart to sell my medium term losing positions which were waiting upon a slower moving exit signal, and to sell my sideways positions which weren't generating exit signals otherwise either - but there was no incentive to hold onto them in a red market. However, I have kept my profitable positions, which have held up well so far, and put some stops on them (not normally a part of my exit signals, but in a very weak market, worth adding). In my longer term portfolio, I'm just making sure I act on any exit signals at the moment.

Thanks Phaedrus for posting the charts. I am also very interested in the SP500 correllation/lack of.

The uncertainty caused by the Krudd tax will hang over the mining sector until its determined for sure, but its interesting to see how many stocks with operations overseas are also being sold down a bit.

remy

07-05-2010, 11:19 AM

going to be another crazy sell of today, especially for the banks.. some good opportunities in the large caps for sure

wbosher

07-05-2010, 11:25 AM

Wonder if 4500 wil be tested today, little more than a 2% drop from 4599. Could be interesting.

Ish

07-05-2010, 11:29 AM

I think it will open below 4500 wbosher.

Don't think it will fall below 4400 though and maybe recover to 4460 ish? just my guess, nothing more.

Footsie

07-05-2010, 02:37 PM

4500 is holding.... there were some bargains on the open... bought a few things hoping for a bounce on wall st tongith then sell on monday

Ish

07-05-2010, 02:42 PM

When fear sets in people usually like to sell before the weekend, so I would be suprised if wall st is up tommorow.

But then again, who really knows.

Hoop

07-05-2010, 03:21 PM

Looking from the American point of view the VIX (Volatility index) shows no panic...possibly just another speed bump
.

Hmmmpgh...some speed bump :(

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/vix07052010.png

wbosher

07-05-2010, 03:25 PM

Nice art work Hoop! :laugh::laugh::laugh:

remy

07-05-2010, 04:21 PM

4500 is holding.... there were some bargains on the open... bought a few things hoping for a bounce on wall st tongith then sell on monday

made 3% on asx.asx today and brougt into stx :) we will see if these gains will get wiped out on monday!

STRAT

07-05-2010, 06:29 PM

Hmmmpgh...some speed bump :(

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/vix07052010.pngDude your stick men are better than mine :scared:

Phaedrus

08-05-2010, 11:43 AM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds58.gif

I am very aware that the Market Strength Indicator featured in most of my charts on this thread is of limited use to ST posters because it is only available through me. To demonstrate just how easily equivalent signals can be generated by other means, this chart features a wide range of conventional indicators, which you can see provide signals just as good as those derived from the MSI.

One characteristic of the MSI is that it has no variable parameters - it has no time periods that can be changed, so its reactivity level is always the same. This unfortunately means that its sensitivity cannot be altered to suit individual preference or specific stocks, but the big plus is that no idiot on ST can accuse me of using "hindsight", "curve-fitting" or tweaking parameters after the event to give better results retrospectively.

The conventional indicators shown here have given signals essentially identical to those from the MSI. Some relatively inactive conservative investors might well consider the February weakness as a transient inconsequential blip, and be annoyed that these indicators triggered what they would consider to be a "false alarm". This can be readily accomodated by their simply selecting longer time periods for the indicators they elect to use, thus rendering them less sensitive. You can't get something for nothing of course, and this will inevitably mean that when the market does show greater weakness, any warning/exit signals will be later than those shown here.

trackers

09-05-2010, 03:40 PM

Hi Phaedrus, very interesting! I'm glad the RSI is throwing up useful signs as thats one of the few indicators I've got a handle on :) Amazing the index is back to Feb levels already, be interesting to see whether the support holds (I think it will)...

winner69

10-05-2010, 02:18 PM

See tjere was no need to panic after all

Back on the way up to 5000 again .... and then will prob fall to 4500 again ... thats what will happen for a few years methinks

evilroyrule

11-05-2010, 01:10 PM

half a percent????/ im hardly impressed today

trackers

11-05-2010, 02:35 PM

I agree - Getting nervous again. Can't decide whether to pick up some NXS or NAV or keep the funds in case this rally waivers.

All index futures looking good however with the exception of the US markets which are down marginally

upside_umop

11-05-2010, 02:50 PM

Add in yesterdays gain (which was already exposed to the Greek deal) and add in todays gain less the uncertainty surrounding Krudd and you've got todays 0.5% gain.

I thought it may have bounced higher, but thinking about it for a minute it makes sense..

Who saw Fannie May is after another $8 billion or so?

remy

11-05-2010, 04:28 PM

was making decent gains when i checked 2 hours ago, looks like theres been a bit of profit taking going on.. Will be interesting to see how the marke reacts tomorrow..

winner69

11-05-2010, 04:37 PM

half a percent????/ im hardly impressed today

..... even less impressed now evil?

evilroyrule

11-05-2010, 04:53 PM

yes. i have decided i do not have the fortitude nor the patience this year. it appears even more so we are simply on the end of some big ****sticks string. up and down round and round. i am seriously thinking about pulling stumps and building a house or something. tough year

although....my half full cup did expect some profit taking today

winner69

11-05-2010, 05:16 PM

Might be the best thing to do evil .... build a house

Most think that Greece is fixed but the problem is that the fix is based on an assumption that it is a liquidity ptoblem whereas it really is a solvency issue .... greece is broke ... good and proper

Greek politicians have fot too long though of debt as income .... cash coming in to be spent and never to be repaid

The current fix is only buying time .... but the inevitable default will come

And if they default who has guaranteed the IMF loans .... US and Asutralia and others (prob inc NZ) ... funny eh

Where you building

evilroyrule

11-05-2010, 05:58 PM

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

trackers

11-05-2010, 06:06 PM

Suspect some of this weakness is due to the impending AUS budget

remy

11-05-2010, 10:58 PM

@10:23pm "European markets have extending their decline shedding between 0.7%-2.8% as debt concerns linger. Dow Futures has tumbled to -92"

well there goes all the gains from friday unless we get some better news over night, budget doesnt seem to bad from and investor perspective at first glance but the debt issues are going to over rule everything.

Zito

17-05-2010, 11:34 PM

trackers

18-05-2010, 10:52 AM

Phaedrus

18-05-2010, 11:07 AM

Hi Trackers, the values that I used here are shown on the chart in brackets after the indicator name.
RSI 50 days
Stochastic 80 days
DMI 50 days etc.

trackers

18-05-2010, 11:09 AM

Hi Trackers, the values that I used here are shown on the chart in brackets after the indicator name.
RSI 50 days
Stochastic 80 days
DMI 50 days etc.

Ahhhh, I thought in the case of RSI that just represented the horizontal line (instead of lines at 30 and 70) - duh...

Thanks :)

Zito

19-05-2010, 03:14 PM

The All Ords is currently testing support at 4500; failure tomorrow would warn of a primary downtrend. The ASX200 has already broken the 4500 support.
Most Asian markets are looking even more bearish eg Shanghai already in a downtrend. Will be watching with interest tomorrow.

Now that support has failed at 4500 for both the AllOrds and the ASX200 I have tightened all stops and am reducing my exposure to the market in Aust. If this weakness continues - and there is little to suggest it won't - I will be cashing up shortly.

The New Zealand market has been more resilient to the problems plaguing the Euro zone but it is still weak. I believe we can soon expect a test of support at around 3075 - should that fail I will be completely out. Worrying times ahead. Tomorrow's budget will not help. Governments should be reducing, rather than increasing, their spending in these times, the Nats here are being fiscally irresponsible.

The bear in me says that the AllOrds may even test historical support at 3000 sometime in the coming 24 months - technically that is the way we're heading - too early to tell yet though and naturally I'm hopeful this doesn't eventuate.

Dr_Who

19-05-2010, 05:52 PM

This market is heart attack territory. The AUD has been hit hard today.

soulman

19-05-2010, 07:35 PM

Time to re-look at the next support level since the 4500 has been broken. My mistake was buying WBC and I will look to offload when the market bounce. The same with CSR (let's hope they sell the sugar business to the chinese because if they demerge, the Sucrogen business won't be that attractive in this current market climate).

My guess is that the market will find support at around 4200.

Tough day but must congrats myself (mixed emotion) for selling a few stock for losses the last few weeks, hence, it could be much worse. Time to re-assess and the DOG (flea or no flea) must go at all cost if they no longer fit my investment criteria.

STRAT

19-05-2010, 08:12 PM

This market is heart attack territory. The AUD has been hit hard today.After a couple of rough days I reckon the Stock Market is lookin better today. Market has taken a pause and is more undecided about continuing south.

Phaedrus

19-05-2010, 09:15 PM

My mistake was buying WBC....

It is very risky to buy anything when the plot is red, Soulman. You never know how long the weakness will continue for. The safest and best time to buy is when the plot is light green. Of course, some people actually advocate buying into a weak and falling market. I'm not one of them!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds519.gif

Dr_Who

20-05-2010, 07:53 AM

Thanks for the update Phaedrus. I appreciate TA from experience posters as that is my weakness.

soulman

20-05-2010, 07:39 PM

Thanks for the chart Phaedrus. I must admit I thought the All Ords might stay at 4500 before rising. Hence, the mistake was not confirming before buying. Also, I bought for the div, which were going ex on Mon this week. If only we could 'turn back time'. No point getting div and losing money. There are positives and negatives. Ahh, the gyration and emotion of the stock market.

Anyway, I am staying away now and will look to offload when there is a bounce. This rate of falls are a reminder of the good old days of 2008 - STAY OUT.

STRAT

21-05-2010, 08:21 AM

After a couple of rough days I reckon the Stock Market is lookin better today. Market has taken a pause and is more undecided about continuing south.Yeah right :rolleyes:

Dr_Who

21-05-2010, 08:37 AM

Who makes Prozac? I am gonna buy their shares.

wbosher

21-05-2010, 08:42 AM

Hang on to something, here we go again. :eek2:

Good chance to get some cheap shares again. :t_up:

Glad I got out when I did. Think I'll be staying out for quite some time now, good luck fellas. :cool:

remy

21-05-2010, 11:12 AM

Who makes Prozac? I am gonna buy their shares.

haha, anyone brave enough to do any buying today?

trackers

21-05-2010, 11:47 AM

haha, anyone brave enough to do any buying today?

If you've been smart enough to have money on the side, I'd recommend continuing to be smart by leaving it there :D

Check out the world futures, no Green around (yes things can change, but I wouldn't bet on it). I'll be booking (more) losses today

evilroyrule

21-05-2010, 12:32 PM

geezy

21-05-2010, 12:46 PM

panic time ?

things are looking very scary , is the big sell off due to past experiences with the credit crunch?

gazprom1

21-05-2010, 01:31 PM

how we doing out there holders? perhaps we need a support group. i need a new arsehole after my one has just been ripped to bits. ouch! dont moderate that. i am hurting enough. the screens are worse than watching american idol. so ill stop watching. big picture time folks, breathe, and have a good weekend.

ERR,

I need something because I am a fool....MY losses are GREATER than the GFC...true I am afraid. Been trying to catch a falling sword in the face of good advice...GREED....! I bought MAK y'day at 25 and tried to sell last night at 26 but missed. Bought some more today at 21.5!!!! Average is 38!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I have been in touch with Drillfix and he has been urging me to get out and I have failed!!!

I am going shortly for 7 weeks and I am thinking that there will be more losses on the way during that period.

Gazprom

evilroyrule

21-05-2010, 01:36 PM

i like this honesty. all we usually hear is about the multi baggers. greed is my great un doing too. and maybe blind pride. i figure if i thought it was a good buy at 5c and it falls to 21 its bloody fantastic buying. i think there is a fundamental shift in objectivity required. i lack it. sweet about drilly. say hi from me

gazprom1

21-05-2010, 01:42 PM

ERR,

I posted on the BUR thread that I just realised that I bought 85,000 BUR this morning at 9.1..thought I had changed my order to 8.3 this am but must have been in too much of a hurry.

Agree, everyone has multi-baggers and is always in cash at this time!!! I am about 85% INVESTED!! I am down $250,000 as I write and expect to extend out to $300-350k. S*** I know but most companies will survive and prosper....I am worried about a couple that may go belly up and that money is lost forever!!!!! I am hurting bad but hope to pull through without the need to sell anything at the bottom!!!

Hope everyone else is 100% cash!!=)=)

Hoop

21-05-2010, 01:46 PM

panic time ?

things are looking very scary , is the big sell off due to past experiences with the credit crunch?

Geezy.
I'm not covinced that the correction is entirely due to Europe's troubles as the media has us to beleive. I have for the last year suspected that the major markets are maturing at differing times and at differing rates. Shanghai is still the leader...8 months ago it went sidways ..a month go it entered a downtrend...10 days ago it turned into a cyclic bear market . Cyclic bears usually have a shorter life span than cyclic bulls ..could be as short as 4 months and be a mild teddy bear or it could be another old age grizzy bear similar to 2008/2009 ...who knows.

As of today the All Ords has (technically speaking) gone from a cyclic bull market cycle to a possible cyclic bear market cycle(needs more confirmation to be 100% sure). So...for the investor... Bear market strategies should be re-instated.

OK..Its possible this Europe event is an over reaction and the markets are creating a bear trap and the cyclic bull will live on...but until the rally tops out the 5050 primary resistance confirming that the cyclic bull lives on, you should treat the All Ords as a new cyclic bear market and treat this next rally (no matter how fast it bounces back) with caution as it maybe the genuine bear market rally article..the sucker type.

lewinsky

21-05-2010, 01:57 PM

This is making investment in a finance company look quite attractive.

Come back Rod.

sharer

21-05-2010, 01:59 PM

Geezy.
I'm not covinced that the correction is entirely due to Europe's troubles as the media has us to beleive. I have for the last year suspected that the major markets are maturing at differing times and at differing rates. Shanghai is still the leader...8 months ago it went sidways ..a month go it entered a downtrend...10 days ago it turned into a cyclic bear market . Cyclic bears usually have a shorter life span than cyclic bulls ..could be as short as 4 months and be a mild teddy bear or it could be another old age grizzy bear similar to 2008/2009 ...who knows.

As of today the All Ords has (technically speaking) gone from a cyclic bull market cycle to a possible cyclic bear market cycle(needs more confirmation to be 100% sure). So...for the investor... Bear market strategies should be re-instated.

OK..Its possible this Europe event is an over reaction and the markets are creating a bear trap and the cyclic bull will live on...but until the rally tops out the 5050 primary resistance confirming that the cyclic bull lives on, you should treat the All Ords as a new cyclic bear market and treat this next rally (no matter how fast it bounces back) with caution as it maybe the genuine bear market rally article..the sucker type.

Thanks Hoop, for very timely caution.

geezy

21-05-2010, 02:09 PM

appreciate your input Hoop, i m indeed leaning towards a market over reaction, the world economy certainly does not look as bad as it seems but all indexes has indeed increased too fast for the past 1-2 years. could be a minor correction then gradual increase perhaps?

march low of 2009 till recently up 75% , currently down round about 16% from recent highs. doesnt look too bad does it?

ENP

21-05-2010, 02:12 PM

minor correction then gradual increase perhaps?

Major

Decrease

geezy

21-05-2010, 02:16 PM

Major

Decrease

why the bearishness mr ENP , mind explaining?

ENP

21-05-2010, 02:22 PM

why the bearishness mr ENP , mind explaining?

http://myinvestorsplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/dow-500.jpg

Simple Elliott Waves based on consumer spending. The average American just turned 46 which is the peak spending age. The baby boomers will start to take out their retirement funds from the stock markets and/or begin converting from stocks to cash retirement funds. Basically IMO I don't see an upside for stocks from May 6th 2010 onwards (when they had that 1000 point drop in the DOW)

mattyroo

21-05-2010, 02:22 PM

Yep, I hoovered up a s**tload of BUL today at 16.5, not really expecting to get them hit, or even all of them hit.... And the price dropped to 15.5 at one stage!

So, Im in the category hoping tfor a bounce next week!

remy

21-05-2010, 02:55 PM

http://myinvestorsplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/dow-500.jpg

Simple Elliott Waves based on consumer spending. The average American just turned 46 which is the peak spending age. The baby boomers will start to take out their retirement funds from the stock markets and/or begin converting from stocks to cash retirement funds. Basically IMO I don't see an upside for stocks from May 6th 2010 onwards (when they had that 1000 point drop in the DOW)

the world is about to end!!!

ENP

21-05-2010, 03:02 PM

the world is about to end!!!

No I don't think so.

But if you are fully invested in shares right now I'd be a bit worried.

trackers

21-05-2010, 03:25 PM

US index futures have turned green...Lets hope for a light green finish to the week and some chilling out happening over the weekend... Lol...

Hoop

21-05-2010, 03:32 PM

The All Ords has entered a possible technical cyclic bear market cycle today..

Breaking News.... Australian Dollar sudden rise ..market intervention is suspected All Ord risen to test 4280 primary now resistance.
Will this tactic succeed? or just a futile panic reaction?

macduffy

21-05-2010, 04:00 PM

Not quite enough sheer panic around yet but we're getting there!

When this is done there will be some great buys around. Might pay to sort out a few.

evilroyrule

21-05-2010, 04:02 PM

gazprom1

21-05-2010, 04:06 PM

good god. the arrows are changing direction. horizon just gone blue, and a few others closing in. maybe people looking now for the good buying or market intervention as hoop alluded to. interesting....

Mmmm, I have just finished selling my MAK which I bought this morning for just over 9% return...helps ease the pain a little. BUR is also a few ticks ahead of where I bought it.

CVN turned upwards early today on the back of positive news...

I hope Wall Street adn Europe can hold together tonight???

Gazprom

soulman

21-05-2010, 04:17 PM

US index futures have turned green...Lets hope for a light green finish to the week and some chilling out happening over the weekend... Lol...

The Aust market has already factored in the US green futures as I type. The index has almost recovered 100 points from the low.

Are you cashed up Tracks?

trackers

21-05-2010, 04:23 PM

The Aust market has already factored in the US green futures as I type. The index has almost recovered 100 points from the low.

Are you cashed up Tracks?

Holding about 25% cash. 50% is in NGE, which I'm keeping come hell or high water, and the other 25% in a couple of stocks which I'm looking to offload in the next bounce (Monday, potentially).

I would have had less in the market, but I'm trying to fund a new US broker by way of asset transfer (rather than wire), so it means I need to be holding stocks to do it!! Bad timing... But no excuse for not listening to the charts which really are showing the way in flashing lights at the moment.... What about you?

soulman

21-05-2010, 04:50 PM

I am mostly stocked up Tracks. I still got that AVB shares from their entitlement issue. I sold their free options for 1.7 straight away when I got them.

Can't really figure the ratio of cash/shares but mixed emotion for me. I put in an order for 4 stocks this morning at 4am at low ball prices for fun and giggle. Believe it or not, all 4 got filled. Have sold 3 for a handy gain and the other WCL (got them for 38) might let it roll till next week. I am buying small amount because of the extreme volatility.

POSSUM THE CAT

21-05-2010, 04:53 PM

Remy Yes If I can get them at the right price Have order in for ANZ

Phaedrus

21-05-2010, 05:16 PM

This correction didn't come unheralded or out of the blue. Most any TA trend following system flagged its initial weakness nearly 3 weeks ago.
Here is an update of the chart posted on page 9 of this thread :-

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds521a.gif

Some relatively inactive conservative investors might well consider the February weakness as a transient inconsequential blip, and be annoyed that these indicators triggered what they would consider to be a "false alarm". This can be readily accomodated by their simply selecting longer time periods for the indicators they elect to use, thus rendering them less sensitive. Here is the chart with the same indicators "detuned" as discussed earlier (above). Even these "slow" indicators all fired over a week ago. The 200 day moving average as shown here is quite commonly used by conservative investors to keep them on the right side of major trends.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds521b.gif

gazprom1

21-05-2010, 05:22 PM

Just bought a few cvn 20mins ago at 31.5....got to be great buying medium term. They are ramping up production and lots of production wells to come on line....BUT could be cheaper next week!!

remy

21-05-2010, 05:35 PM

tricha

22-05-2010, 09:45 AM

we had the same thing happen friday two weeks ago, a huge dip on the friday then a recovery the following week, good opportunities for day traders but i don't have enough capital to do that once accounting for transaction costs + direct brokings spread and not keen on doing cfd's with those crooks at cmc markets...

possum i would like to pick up some cheap big caps as well, i like asx and cba.. Taking the majority of peoples advice and not buying any more stocks atm, however i don't want to miss out this time around with some bargains. As buffet would say "be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful"

Yesterday was a great day to buy OZ stocks, I switched my super from cash back to high risk OZ stocks and I topped up in the market, things are at such a great price, most companies now have their books in order, cash and reduced debt.
Buffet would also be buying heaps no doubt.

If copper had been plummenting I would have waited, next week it should all be go again and when the OZ Govt ditch their stupidity :eek2: tax, add at least 10% xtra to mining stocks like BHP.

Copper Prices Rise Most in Three Months on Signs of Ample Demand in China

By Millie Munshi - May 21, 2010
Copper prices jumped the most in three months on speculation that demand will remain ample in China, the world’s biggest metal user.
Inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell for a third straight week, the longest slide since October. China imported 309,772 metric tons last month, the second- biggest amount since June, the government said. Before today, copper dropped 6 percent this week on European debt concerns.
“Prices had gotten overextended on the downside, and we’ll see copper move up from here,” said Lannie Cohen, the president of Capitol Commodity Services Inc. in Indianapolis. “It’s still about China and focusing more on the situation there.”
Copper futures for July delivery climbed 11.65 cents, or 4 percent, to $3.061 a pound on the Comex in New York, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Feb. 16.
Copper has dropped 8.5 percent this year, partly on concerns that China’s government will act to cool its economy and damp metal demand. Yesterday, the price touched $2.9005, the lowest level since Feb. 9, as global equities tumbled.
“Until we see things settle down in Europe, things are going to be volatile for copper,” Cohen said. “The lows in the market are in, but there are still some hurdles.”
Copper for delivery in three months rose 3.6 percent to $6,845 a metric ton ($3.10 a pound) on the London Metal Exchange.
Aluminum, tin, zinc, lead and nickel prices also gained.
To contact the reporter on the story: Millie Munshi (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=en10_wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&sort=date:D:S:d1&lr=-lang_ja&q=Millie%20Munshi) in New York at mmunshi@bloomberg.net.

Huang Chung

22-05-2010, 11:12 AM

mark100

22-05-2010, 11:52 AM

Probably a good idea to keep an eye on the TED spread (see link below). Sure on a 6 month view there has been a bit of a blow out but on a 5 year view we're still below levels in 2006. As for 2008 well that was a full blown credit crisis. For as long as the TED spread remains at reasonable levels I think we are only dealing with a correction due to expectations of lower than expected growth rather than a full blown credit crisis ie 2008

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP%3AIND

I didn't buy yesterday but in hindsight probably should have had a nibble. WPL looked attractive under $40 as did QBE under $20. Plus the major banks

tricha

22-05-2010, 12:59 PM

Morning T

I picked up a swag of Sandfire (SFR) yesterday at $2.93. Cashed up copper play with gold as well.

Check it out....

http://www.sandfire.com.au/download.cfm?objectID=B8B606BE-1AA0-353A-5A3ECF2A7954766C

Looks good Huang, unfortunately a year ago it would have been a great buy, I just just picked up one of my old favourites PAN .
Much safer bet, with so much cash and production, Nickel at a pretty good price. Mincor would be my next bet, especially at the low yesterday, i do not think you could go wrong.

Huang Chung

22-05-2010, 01:28 PM

SFR getting some early monster hits in the shallow Chalcocite zone, which will result in significant early cash flow before they need to go underground.

http://www.sandfire.com.au/download.cfm?objectID=613746F5-1AA0-353A-5A673152BB88C2A2

The market has been in fear / KRudd Super Tax mode ever since these results were announced, so not really factored into price as yet.

Resource upgreade late June/July.

shasta

22-05-2010, 02:18 PM

STRAT

23-05-2010, 10:29 AM

Nice Hammer on Friday.

Long tail.

Bottom in??? :ohmy:

Footsie

23-05-2010, 08:26 PM

Strat, that was certainly a bullish sign. but dont think we will be resuming the uptrend that quickly this time. plenty of hedge funds ready to sell any rallly id say

gazprom1

24-05-2010, 08:29 AM

Are we going to have a strong opening followed by a sell off during the day to end up flat to maybe down a little??? That would be my "guess" for the day.

trackers

24-05-2010, 10:08 AM

Someone mentioned a while ago that activity on this forum was a good idea of market direction - I reckon they're right, perhaps there should be an indicator for that :)

STRAT

24-05-2010, 10:13 AM

Strat, that was certainly a bullish sign. but dont think we will be resuming the uptrend that quickly this time. plenty of hedge funds ready to sell any rallly id sayAgreed Footsie.
Im not ready to part with my cash just yet.

Yeah Trackers, Whats the state of the forum suggesting right now? Ive been a bit busy to keep up so my absence is no indicator lol

Huang Chung

24-05-2010, 10:22 AM

Someone mentioned a while ago that activity on this forum was a good idea of market direction - I reckon they're right, perhaps there should be an indicator for that :)

Not only that, but when times are bad, there are less posts on individual stocks, and more on general threads like this one....

macduffy

24-05-2010, 12:15 PM

Someone mentioned a while ago that activity on this forum was a good idea of market direction - I reckon they're right, perhaps there should be an indicator for that :)

I don't think it's so much an indicator of market direction but rather reactive to the state of the market.

A bit like the proverbial shoeshine boy/ cab driver syndrome only much more sophisticated, of course!

trackers

24-05-2010, 01:37 PM

Not only that, but when times are bad, there are less posts on individual stocks, and more on general threads like this one....

True.. And macduffy you're right too... Things aren't looking great in my view.

I sold down a lot of my holdings today in the bounce. I also notice that the DJIA futures are down 65 points (real-time), should be an interesting week..

trackers

25-05-2010, 10:22 AM

DOW down 126 points (1.24%)

DOW futures down 38 points, ASX200 futures down 70 (1.6%) points.

What's going to turn this around?

1. Stocks reaching 'bargain' (heavily oversold/ fundamentally undervalued) levels
2. Stability in Europe
3. Confirmation of general global economic recovery / demand

?? Hard to say. Anyone got a chart of the VIX?

Dr_Who

25-05-2010, 10:56 AM

This is a hard market to make any dosh, unless you hold a short position.

Phaedrus

25-05-2010, 11:34 AM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/VIX525.gif

soulman

25-05-2010, 06:12 PM

This is a hard market to make any dosh, unless you hold a short position.

You can make money by not losing it.

Dr_Who

25-05-2010, 07:00 PM

You can make money by not losing it.

I ve got some short position as a hedge. It is looking likely I will keep my short position in this market just an insurance. Asian market is ugly.

upside_umop

25-05-2010, 07:14 PM

Who are you shorting through doctor?

Phaedrus

25-05-2010, 07:17 PM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds525.gif

trackers

25-05-2010, 07:27 PM

Who are you shorting through doctor?

I will have shorting facilities soon, through Interactive Brokers. $6 for normal trades as well is fairly awesome....

The down side to them (so far) is its tricky to fund and the platforms, though impressive, look like there's a steep learning curve involved.

bermuda

25-05-2010, 07:31 PM

Phaedrus,
How low are we going? 3100? What's your best estimate?
Cheers

ENP

25-05-2010, 07:59 PM

Phaedrus,
How low are we going? 3100? What's your best estimate?
Cheers

Lower than March 2009.

shasta

25-05-2010, 08:02 PM

Phaedrus,
How low are we going? 3100? What's your best estimate?
Cheers

3100 would be some haircut from these levels Bermuda!

Around 4000 would be roughly a 50% retracement from the rally high ~5000, & previous low ~3100

Below that & theres more carnage to come!

Dr_Who

25-05-2010, 08:09 PM

Who are you shorting through doctor?

It depends. Sometimes I use CFD cos the fees are very low and sometimes I go for a put option. Most brokers have short with exception of Macquarie.

This market is very ugly. Look at Europe :(

4be

25-05-2010, 08:19 PM

Phaedrus , from what I have gathered you are a medium-long term investor using TA for entry & exit points. Correct? Would you be moving to cash at the markets current situation? Can you see the market falling alot further from your indicators? Thanks 4be

Phaedrus

25-05-2010, 09:00 PM

Bermuda and 4be, I have no idea how low the market will go. Neither has anyone else. What I do know is that right now it is very weak and still falling, a time for caution. For me, this means no buying until the market begins to show some sign of recovery - when the plot turns light green, for example.

Would you be moving to cash at the markets current situation?I began moving to cash 3 weeks ago when the Market Strength Indicator first flagged significant weakness (the chart plot turned red). I haven't got much left to sell!

Serpie

25-05-2010, 10:12 PM

I've been trying to post a 2 year chart of the XJO (monthly scale) showing RSI.
Can anyone help me with this please?

shasta

25-05-2010, 10:22 PM

Bermuda and 4be, I have no idea how low the market will go. Neither has anyone else. What I do know is that right now it is very weak and still falling, a time for caution. For me, this means no buying until the market begins to show some sign of recovery - when the plot turns light green, for example.

I began moving to cash 3 weeks ago when the Market Strength Indicator first flagged significant weakness (the chart plot turned red). I haven't got much left to sell!

Phaedrus

What kind of support (whether technical or psychological) exists at 4,000

Isn't there a 50% Fib point around 4,000?

Can any techie confirm or correct me?

Dr_Who

25-05-2010, 11:04 PM

COLIN

25-05-2010, 11:59 PM

I actually think this is an over reaction by the markets. But then who is brave enough to dip their toes in this market. I just have a gut feeling there is alot of money to be made in this market if you are game enough.

Its going to take more than "gut feeling" to turn this market around, I'm afraid - and isn't everyone "afraid"! FTSE down around 3% tonight. And I see that tensions on the Korean Peninsula are now being touted as a further threat - don't forget that the Korean War never officially ended, there was simply a "temporary" truce.

trackers

26-05-2010, 07:16 AM

I've been trying to post a 2 year chart of the XJO (monthly scale) showing RSI.
Can anyone help me with this please?

Hi Serpie,

If the picture is on the net, hit reply and press the 'insert picture' button then enter the link to its location. If its off your computer, go to http://www.iforce.co.nz/ and upload the file... It will give you a link which you can then enter as above.

U.S Market rebounding late in the day, good to see.. My holdings have been pared back to almost zero, I've actually followed Phaedrus' indicators (ninjad RSI, +/- DMI, stochastic etc parameters into my own ALL ORDS chart - Hope this is ok Phaedrus :) ) and its saved me a good amount of money. I have a tiny long term holding in AVB which isn't worth selling, and I'm holding some NGE (so close to spud!! And holding up well).

Phaedrus

26-05-2010, 07:36 AM

I've been trying to post a 2 year chart of the XJO (monthly scale) showing RSI.
Can anyone help me with this please?Here you are Serpie. This is straight from IncredibleCharts, but it uses weekly data points rather than the monthly you requested. A 2 year monthly chart has insufficient data points to give any meaningful interpretation, so I have used a weekly scale.

The RSI buy/sell points correspond quite closely with those derived from my Market Strength chart.

Was your difficulty with viewing/creating the chart, or with posting it?

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/XJO526.gif

gazprom1

26-05-2010, 08:06 AM

S&P 500 up for the day!!!.....VIX well below 40 and heading down. It will be interesting to see where the ASX goes today as the ASX was influenced by the US futrues y'day.

Gazprom

Phaedrus

26-05-2010, 08:53 AM

Phaedrus, what kind of support (whether technical or psychological) exists at 4,000?Probably none. When we look back over decades of Index data, no obvious support/resistance can be seen at the 2000, 3000, 4000 or 5000 levels.

Isn't there a 50% Fib point around 4,000?A 50% retracement from the April high would take the AllOrds down to 4067.9.

Have you seen the recent study by Professor Roy Batchelor and Richard Ramyar? They found no evidence that Fibonacci numbers work with Indices. They tested nearly 90 years of history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1914-2002) and found no indication that trends tend to reverse at 50% retracements, 61.8% retracements, or any other Fibonacci level. Or at any other number.

http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/media/stories/story_30_69004_65846.html

Serpie

26-05-2010, 09:29 AM

Here you are Serpie. Was your difficulty with viewing/creating the chart, or with posting it?

Thanks Phaedrus,

I was having trouble posting it. I use The Bourse software and the only way to print a chart is to do a screen capture, so the file size is too big.

The weekly chart doesn't show it as clearly (although still may have had you thinking about pulling out in late October 09 and therefore still ahead as opposed to now) but on the monthly chart the XJO bounced straight off overbought (@80) in April, and also illustrates the market bottom in February 09. All with the benefit of hindsight of course, but RSI is always up to date.

I've always been too focussed on individual stocks, rather than paying attention to the market as a whole, so I'm trying to take the blinkers off and look at the big picture a little more.

While the monthly chart is possibly too slow, it's got to be something worth paying a lot more attention to.

Thanks again Phaedrus, and I'd appreciate your (or anyone's) comments.

ENP

26-05-2010, 09:35 AM

Can I just ask a question, slightly off topic. With the ASX website, I can't seem to find any quick link showing the earnings/share or the P/E ratio like is in the summary page for each stock on the NZX website.

Any links or help with this would be great, as I've just been looking at annual reports and doing my own calculations for P/E ratios, etc, which is very time consuming.

winner69

26-05-2010, 10:12 AM

I've always been too focussed on individual stocks, rather than paying attention to the market as a whole, so I'm trying to take the blinkers off and look at the big picture a little more.

While the monthly chart is possibly too slow, it's got to be something worth paying a lot more attention to.

Thanks again Phaedrus, and I'd appreciate your (or anyone's) comments.

Serpie - agree with you that one needs to see what the sentiment of the market is as a whole .... and then focus on your individual stocks

I keep my own version of a weekly chart of the ASX200 as my market indicator .... not ding the sophisticated stuff Phaedrus does but even a weekly chart takes out a lot of the daily noise and mediim to longer trends are easier to see

Its amazing how odten you can draw straight lines on charts to get the underlying trends

Serpie

26-05-2010, 10:45 AM

Agreed W69,

It seems to make more sense to step into a friendly environment, and then try to make some money, than to tough it out when bullets are flying past your ears.

winner69

26-05-2010, 10:48 AM

and this joker sell sell please sell your shares before its too late

And people on this site follow the DOW Theory

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/stockmarket-bear-Dow-pd20100526-5SSE8?OpenDocument&src=sph

No comment from me

winner69

26-05-2010, 10:55 AM

jeez these guys at Business Spectator are happy today

Now a rout is about to happen

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/ASX200-SP500-market-correction-pd20100526-5SSLJ?OpenDocument&src=sph

trackers

26-05-2010, 11:02 AM

Phaedrus' indicators have been serving me well ..my +DMI/-DMI is a little out for some reason.. But apart from that:

http://iforce.co.nz/i/gsueyjn4.bmp

If you act on the indicators when at least 3 of them fire (there's 5 if you include the 90 day EMA) you would have (and will continue to, I'm assuming) do well

Hoop

26-05-2010, 11:44 AM

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/ASX25052010.png

ENP

26-05-2010, 11:48 AM

Is everyone a technical expert now?

shasta

26-05-2010, 11:50 AM

Probably none. When we look back over decades of Index data, no obvious support/resistance can be seen at the 2000, 3000, 4000 or 5000 levels.

A 50% retracement from the April high would take the AllOrds down to 4067.9.

Have you seen the recent study by Professor Roy Batchelor and Richard Ramyar? They found no evidence that Fibonacci numbers work with Indices. They tested nearly 90 years of history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1914-2002) and found no indication that trends tend to reverse at 50% retracements, 61.8% retracements, or any other Fibonacci level. Or at any other number.

http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/media/stories/story_30_69004_65846.html

Thanks Phaedrus

Interesting article too

h2so4

26-05-2010, 02:00 PM

ENP

26-05-2010, 03:04 PM

Try this site http://markets.smh.com.au/apps/qt/index.ac

Cool thanks, thats a good one.

Dr_Who

26-05-2010, 05:29 PM

The question on everyone's mind now...... is this a DEAD CAT bounce or the BOTTOM of the market?

There are now a number of stocks trading below PEs of 8-7x which is very cheap. That is of cos assuming they can still meet forecast.

Abracadabra

26-05-2010, 08:03 PM

I also read this book recently. It certainly got me thinking about manipulation of the markets.

I agree with your comments re current situation, have been thinking the same!

Dr_Who

26-05-2010, 09:15 PM

KABOOM!

Europe is up strongly.

remy

26-05-2010, 09:22 PM

I also read this book recently. It certainly got me thinking about manipulation of the markets.

I agree with your comments re current situation, have been thinking the same!

what books that?

tobo

26-05-2010, 10:06 PM

remy,
look back

COLIN

27-05-2010, 11:11 AM

KABOOM!

Europe is up strongly.

A pity someone didn't think to tell the Americans!

Jay

28-05-2010, 10:48 AM

I began moving to cash 3 weeks ago when the Market Strength Indicator first flagged significant weakness (the chart plot turned red). I haven't got much left to sell!

General question:
Does this include long term holds as well if they say breach the 200MA or is it mainly on the MSI indicator.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I think you have said in essence, that once the MSI shows weakness (turns red) then you act on the other sell signals such as trendlines etc?
I have sold some of my long term holds due to this (CBA for example), then when would you look to get back in once the MSI Turns light green ? or and when other buy signals trigger -

Appreciate your "expertise" Phaedrus

mattyroo

28-05-2010, 12:20 PM

ENP

28-05-2010, 12:24 PM

gazprom1

28-05-2010, 12:32 PM

I am enjoying the bouncing cat...hope it continues to bounce next week.=)=)

ENP

28-05-2010, 12:33 PM

I am enjoying the bouncing cat...hope it continues to bounce next week.=)=)

I think it's already bounced. Now it's a poor dead wee kitty cat.

Jay

28-05-2010, 12:57 PM

Yes I get this feeling that it is only temporary upward movement - given the markets "today" it seems a large jump to be sustained

trackers

28-05-2010, 02:43 PM

I think it's already bounced. Now it's a poor dead wee kitty cat.

Seems to be a bit of a disparity between what you want to happen... and what is actually happening

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=^AORD#chart1:symbol=^aord;range=1d;indica tor=ema+mfi+rsi+stochasticslow;charttype=line;cros shair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefine d

STRAT

28-05-2010, 03:01 PM

Here's a guy saying the DJIA is forming a 20 year head + shoulders pattern.... and we're on our way back to 4500 on the DOW.....

http://williamtellstradecraft.blogspot.com/p/20-year-massive-head-and-shoulders.html

Any TA experts out there care to comment on his tealeaves?Im no expert but looks like an excuse to fill a web page to me Matty:lol:

Hey whats all this talk about dead cats? I reckon its time to get the cheque book and pen at the ready. Im lookin to buy back my stocks over the next week depending on what transpires over the next two to three days.

ENP

28-05-2010, 03:02 PM

Seems to be a bit of a disparity between what you want to happen... and what is actually happening

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=^AORD#chart1:symbol=^aord;range=1d;indica tor=ema+mfi+rsi+stochasticslow;charttype=line;cros shair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefine d

I'm not talking a 1 day timeframe...

Zoom out to 5 years on that graph.

STRAT

28-05-2010, 03:27 PM

Was just lookin over the All Ords stocks and their performance for today and noticed something really funny.

ADY is still on the list :scared:

gazprom1

28-05-2010, 05:12 PM

Im no expert but looks like an excuse to fill a web page to me Matty:lol:

Hey whats all this talk about dead cats? I reckon its time to get the cheque book and pen at the ready. Im lookin to buy back my stocks over the next week depending on what transpires over the next two to three days.

Strat,

I am with you. The cat is still bouncing around and as long it doesn't die, it is all good in the long run. I had the cheque book out right through and overall it is ok.

I reiterate my philosophy: add to your positions in a falling market provided the reasons for purchasing the stock still hold in the current environment. Obviously, if you are an excellent FA and TA person, you can exit and enter to minimise losses in certain market conditions.

Gazprom