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Hoop
28-06-2009, 12:05 PM
Many investors are commenting on why the NASDAQ is performing better than the S&P500 and DOW. They are waiting for the NASDAQ to correct and fall back in line with the S&P500 & DOW. Are their thinking correct???

Answer:-- maybe not...There are other forces at work which get scant media coverage such as the differing rates of recovery seen in each individual indexed market.
The charts below clearly show that the FTSE, DOW and S&P500 are still in a technical bear market mode and are lagging behind the rest of the worlds indexes which have already signaled a bull recovery....so one could assume that there is a good chance the FTSE, DOW and S&P500 will eventually follow the rest of the world Equities and recover into a new Bull cycle, rather than seeing the rest of the world fall back to match the 3 bears


One thing that's certain ....the Global Equities Market are no longer in tandem (correlated) ...that perfect storm ended in 2008



The charts below show a green line which once crossed (upwards) signals a technical bull market... confirmed with the crossing of the MA200.

On the NZX50 chart I have left in the old downtrend channel as this is interesting...as it may signal that this recent weakness may not be a bull trap but a false break.

As shown on the charts many markets are retesting their technical Bull levels making investors nervous and raising fears of a Bull trap as happened in 1930.

The 3 Bears

1744

1745

1746


The Rest... Post #2

Hoop
28-06-2009, 12:09 PM
The Rest...Goldilocks

Hoop
24-07-2009, 10:09 AM
Many investors are commenting on why the NASDAQ is performing better than the S&P500 and DOW. They are waiting for the NASDAQ to correct and fall back in line with the S&P500 & DOW. Are their thinking correct???

Answer:-- maybe not...There are other forces at work which get scant media coverage such as the differing rates of recovery seen in each individual indexed market.

The charts below clearly show that the FTSE, DOW and S&P500 are still in a technical bear market mode and are lagging behind the rest of the worlds indexes which have already signaled a bull recovery....so one could assume that there is a good chance the FTSE, DOW and S&P500 will eventually follow the rest of the world Equities and recover into a new Bull cycle, rather than seeing the rest of the world fall back to match the 3 bears.

Update: - The assumption is correct. As of today's 2+% the DOW and S&P500 have followed the rest of the world and have recovered to comfirm a new Bull market cycle.


One thing that's certain ....the Global Equities Market are no longer in tandem (correlated) ...that perfect storm ended in 2008.

Update: - Most of The worlds Equity indexes are in differing Bull Market phases The Shanghai index being the most mature of those mentioned in this thread.


The charts below show a green line which once crossed (upwards) signals a technical bull market... confirmed with the crossing of the MA200.

On the NZX50 chart I have left in the old downtrend channel as this is interesting...as it may signal that this recent weakness may not be a bull trap but a false break.
Update: - Yes it turned out to be a false downward break.

As shown on the charts many markets are retesting their technical Bull levels making investors nervous and raising fears of a Bull trap as happened in 1930.
Update: - It was no Bull trap as it turned out, so those fears have been subdued for the time being. In actual fact the false trend break downward turned out to be a bear trap as the indexes are now back in a strong uptrend again.



The 3 bears have been reduced to one...the FTSE


The 2 bears that have changed to Goldilocks

DOW broke key 9000 resistance level (now a support level) confirms a primary uptrend (Bull market cycle confirmed**)

The S&P500 broke key 950* resistance level (now a support level) confirms a primary uptrend (Bull market cycle confirmed**)
* some TA purists consider the 1000 resistance level the key level.

** retesting and respecting the new supports needed to reduce the chance of a false break

Dr_Who
25-07-2009, 05:51 PM
Thanks for the update Hoop. Very informative.

Hoop
15-03-2010, 11:17 AM
7 months have passed since the last post.

Update:-The 3 laggards (Bears) have made up ground on the Goldilocks that confirmed the end of the Cyclic Bear market first.

Presently we notice that the S&P500 has caught up and is now at the same Cyclic Bull Market maturity level as the All Ords.

Although the S&P500 and All Ords have tracked very similar lines together during these last couple of years..the confirmations of the recent cyclic bull market stages were at different times, the All Ords had always confirmed first then S&P500 would follow.

As of now the S&P500 has caught up and confirmations are now within the same time frame ...so the advantage of using the All Ords confirmation knowing that the S&P500 would follow is now gone (maybe not ..see below).

The simple example of follow the leader is on the charts below.... see how together both indexes had first confirmation that the cyclic bear was over during March of 2009...but the American investors fretted over their bull market with the fears of it being an extended bear market rally only to be finally put to rest when the S&P index broke up passed the primary downtrend line in early November 2009 a good 6 weeks after the All Ords confirmation.
Notice how the All Ords chart showed a more matured cyclic bull market at that time with the earlier confirmation of the primary downtrend line break.

Since then the All Ords has experienced a double dip bull market correction giving the S&P500 index a chance to catch up.
.
.



The big question that some may ask when noticing these charts ...Is this S&P500 catch up an illusion??

The Shanghai index was the leader out of the latest Cyclic Bear market (3 months ahead) and has the most mature cyclic bull cycle.

Are the indexes still following the Shanghai Leader?

A no answer if:
1....a breakout above 4980 for the All Ords.
2....a breakout above 1150 for the S&P500, but only if 1 above applies...otherwise apply caution. (remember the Xmas All Ords bull trap)




-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE LEADER INDEX?

2443

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hoop
28-04-2010, 11:27 AM
Quote from my 15 March 2010 post

...The big question that some may ask when noticing these charts ...Is this S&P500 catch up an illusion??

The Shanghai index was the leader out of the latest Cyclic Bear market (3 months ahead) and has the most mature cyclic bull cycle.

Are the indexes still following the Shanghai Leader?

A no answer if:
1....a breakout above 4980 for the All Ords. update YES but fallen back ...looking like another bull trap???
2....a breakout above 1150 for the S&P500, but only if 1 above applies...otherwise apply caution. (remember the Xmas All Ords bull trap) Update YES

Conclusion : Yes no maybe...therefore there is uncertainty so apply caution.

The Shanghai Composite index is looking more and more like it could be in a cyclic bear market cycle..too early to totally confirm yet... but the first confirmation was the start of the primary downtrend (August 2009) which was upgraded to primary status by the breaking of the primary uptrend line in mid January 2010..the second confirmation could be today if it breaks the 29000 major support level ...
The last confirmation would be the breaking of the primary support at 2650.

Watch for the Hang Seng, if there is a break below 21000 the primary downtrend will resume making the recent trend breakthrough rally on the 6 april a bull trap...If the 21000 level holds look for another possible rally....however with the Shanghai looking doubtful the 21000 Hang Seng support area is under serious threat of breaking.

The All Ords is also showing the Shanghai index shape and lagging a couple months behind Therefore the breaking of the 4900 major support will not come as any major surprise.

If the Western Equity markets are lagging up to 3 months behind the Chinese equity markets then a warning should be issued now of a possible ending of the cyclic bull market.

Our biggest and best Goldilocks is looking like an asian bear
..
.
Sorry no charts ..due to NZ national dinosaur internet/phone infra-structure:t_down:..Hoops busted his data cap (20Gigs) yet again and is on dial up speed for the rest of the month:mad ;::mad ;:....feels like I'm reliving the 1990s.:cool::):mellow::(:t_down::p

peat
28-04-2010, 09:07 PM
Hoops busted his data cap (20Gigs)
thats a lot of securities charts!

Hoop
29-04-2010, 09:15 AM
thats a lot of securities charts!

LOL:) nice one Peat

My Household = 4 Kids + 2 Adults....4 laptops + one desktop + 2 PS3s + Wii + bluetooth mobile smartphones = need lots of data...20Gig/month poof!! gone...easy


I realise that we are not a normal household but without constraint I estimate my household could use 60Gig/month high speed data now with new services appearing such as TV on demand on the PS3 and easy access to free internet TV station websites via media players. Just a year ago 20Gig/month was ample.

With HD and shortly 3D + new wireless internet capable toys it wouldn't surprise me that an average household in the near future..say 5 years time after everything has gone to wireless interactive digital.. would need 100Gig/month ultra high speed (+50MB/sec) affordable data stream.

Access to large fast data will happen it inevitable ..just unfortunate that the planners at Telecom in that past monpolistic environment couldn't (or refused to) see far enough ahead to plan for the future...and now the Govt..too late as usual has stepped in under urgency and haste to try and rectify and this could turn out to be a very messy solution for the taxpayer.

...but this is off topic and should have a thread of its own.....

Edit...Dial up speed suxs

Hoop
21-05-2010, 01:56 PM
Quote from my 15 March 2010 post

...The big question that some may ask when noticing these charts ...Is this S&P500 catch up an illusion??

The Shanghai index was the leader out of the latest Cyclic Bear market (3 months ahead) and has the most mature cyclic bull cycle.

Are the indexes still following the Shanghai Leader?

A no answer if:
1....a breakout above 4980 for the All Ords. update YES but fallen back ...looking like another bull trap???
2....a breakout above 1150 for the S&P500, but only if 1 above applies...otherwise apply caution. (remember the Xmas All Ords bull trap) Update YES

Conclusion : Yes no maybe...therefore there is uncertainty so apply caution.

The Shanghai Composite index is looking more and more like it could be in a cyclic bear market cycle..too early to totally confirm yet... but the first confirmation was the start of the primary downtrend (August 2009) which was upgraded to primary status by the breaking of the primary uptrend line in mid January 2010..the second confirmation could be today if it breaks the 29000 major support level ...
The last confirmation would be the breaking of the primary support at 2650.

Watch for the Hang Seng, if there is a break below 21000 the primary downtrend will resume making the recent trend breakthrough rally on the 6 april a bull trap...If the 21000 level holds look for another possible rally....however with the Shanghai looking doubtful the 21000 Hang Seng support area is under serious threat of breaking.

The All Ords is also showing the Shanghai index shape and lagging a couple months behind Therefore the breaking of the 4900 major support will not come as any major surprise.

If the Western Equity markets are lagging up to 3 months behind the Chinese equity markets then a warning should be issued now of a possible ending of the cyclic bull market.

Our biggest and best Goldilocks is looking like an asian bear
..
.
Sorry no charts ..due to NZ national dinosaur internet/phone infra-structure:t_down:..Hoops busted his data cap (20Gigs) yet again and is on dial up speed for the rest of the month:mad ;::mad ;:....feels like I'm reliving the 1990s.:cool::):mellow::(:t_down::p

I wrote this warning on the 28th of April.
It seems everyone except me has blamed Europe for this correction but here I go again harping on that the world equity markets could be following the Shanghai path.
Why????..I have no idea.

However if Shanghai is the long term leading indicator* a cyclic market change may happen here first..so we investors should concentrate our attentions not only with the S&P500 or the DOW but also add the Shanghai Composite to our attention list.
* Copper and base metal index are reliable short term leading indicators ..rapid fall a few days before the Equity rapid fall etc...

OK...... Shanghai become an Asian bear on 12 May broke 2650 primary support
The All Ords is the first to follow Shanghai ...Ozzi bear confirmed today.
who's next:confused:....

Remember my earlier posts... the 3 laggards FTSE, S&P, DOW......yep... they are still lagging... They have entered the technical correction phase (-10%) but have not yet reached primary downtrend levels yet, so still technically in a cyclic bull market cycle.

The only major European sharemarket to enter a technical bearish downtrend so far is France's CAC.

So where to from here:confused:.. sadly:( if the Shanghai effect is true it would seem more pain for the USA / European markets to the point that they too will become cyclic bears within the next month or two.

Key Index points of Interest

.......................Closing prices....Primary Support Levels.......major SL............Cycle

Shanghai Composite..2514 ..12 May 2650...................27 April 2890....12 May Bear
India BSE30............16520 .............13200.............................156 50............Bull
Hang Seng..............19546...............17200....... ......................19420...........Bull
Nikkei..........intraday 9778.................9050...................21 May 9870........DT Bull
All Ords.......intraday 4239.....21 May 4280..............................4500....21 May Bear
NZX50.........intraday 3042................3028....................21 May 3060........DT Bull
DAX........................5868................520 0..............................5430.............Bu ll
FTSE100..................5073................5000. .............................5030.............Bull
CAC........................3433................340 0..............................3550.........DT Bull
NASDAQ..................2204................????.. ..............................2100.............Bul l
DOW......................10068...............????. ...............................9900.............Bu ll
S&P500...................1071................1000... ............................1050.............Bull

*DT Bull ....bull market cycle intact with the index in a short/medium term bearish downtrend

UPDATE: (3.21pm) Breaking News.... Australian Dollar sudden rise ..market intervention is suspected All Ord risen in response to test the 4280 primary now resistance level.
It seems OZZI don't like its new founded bear status...a futile attempt? we shall see.

peat
21-05-2010, 02:34 PM
UPDATE: (3.21pm) Breaking News.... Australian Dollar sudden rise ..market intervention is suspected All Ord risen in response to test the 4280 primary now resistance level.
It seems OZZI don't like its new founded bear status...a futile attempt? we shall see.

not just the AUD rising though, so may not be intervention. Pretty obvious if you look at the charts that the SNB intervened to stop the CHF rising against the Euro.

Hoop
24-05-2010, 12:40 PM
Hmmmmm...it seems I'm not the only one to have noticed the Shanghai effect
Article from todays MarketWatch (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shanghai-foretells-wall-streets-future-2010-05-23)
.
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Craig Stephen's This Week in China
http://i.mktw.net/_newsimages/columnists/stephen_craig.jpg May 23, 2010, 8:27 p.m. EDT Recommend (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shanghai-foretells-wall-streets-future-2010-05-23#) (1) Post: http://i.mktw.net/MW5/content/Story/Images/icon-facebook.gif (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shanghai-foretells-wall-streets-future-2010-05-23#) http://i.mktw.net/MW5/content/Story/Images/icon-twitter.gif (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shanghai-foretells-wall-streets-future-2010-05-23#)
The significance of China's slumping A-shares

Commentary: Is this an indicator for U.S. stocks (and double-dip recession)?



View all Craig Stephen's This Week in China (http://www.marketwatch.com/search?mode=Column&rpp=15&modeparam=Craig%20Stephen%27s%20This%20Week%20in%2 0China&companymatch=false&beforedate=false&rs=true)
Previous Column
Follow the money ... from mainland China (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/follow-the-money-from-mainland-china-2010-05-17)

First Take
Tesla beckons to the true believers (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-beckons-to-the-true-believers-2010-05-21)


Story Comments Screener (8) (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shanghai-foretells-wall-streets-future-2010-05-23/comments)


Alert (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/alerts/newsColumn.asp?selectedType=3&column=Craig%20Stephen%27s%20This%20Week%20in%20Ch ina) Email (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story_email.asp?guid=%7BC5A2AD65-3443-4059-9BDD-F9937B3EEC6C%7D&dist=emailMidSection) Print (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=C5A2AD65-3443-4059-9BDD-F9937B3EEC6C) Share (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:void%280%29) By Craig Stephen
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Hong Kong can be expected to catch up with last week's steep falls in equity markets after a public holiday on Friday. It was the huge sell-off in Western markets that made headlines last week, but was a preceding fall in Shanghai's A-shares an early warning?
Analysts are now arguing that the Shanghai A-share Index is acting as a leading indicator for U.S. equity markets. United-ICAP say they have observed this since 2007, when the Shanghai market fell in advance of the Dow and also bottomed first in October 2008, while the Dow did not bottom until March 2009. This year, from its peak in April, the Shanghai market is now down 19%, while after last week's falls the Dow is down just 9%.
Asian broker CLSA Securities makes a similar point in a recent strategy note: "The negative price action since late last summer in Chinese A-shares and Hong Kong-listed Chinese property stocks looks more and more like the key lead indicator for the global risk trade."
Of course, thinking of China's stock markets as a leading indicator for global markets is quite a leap. While conventional wisdom is that equity markets are a lead indicator of economic activity, this is generally dismissed in China, where its stocks markets are considered irrational, with little correlation with the economy.
This is explained by a market that is dominated by herd-driven retail investors and where the "smart money" of foreign institutional investors is largely locked outside. A-shares are still off limits to the majority of foreign investors, and the currency is also not freely convertible.


U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's trip to Beijing for a meeting on the economy will be a key focus next week. On the agenda will likely be Chinese procurement rules and the Chinese currency. In Japan, traders will be watching to see whether deflation is taking hold.

This year, the economy and the stock market again appear to be heading in opposite directions. China's first-quarter gross domestic product grew at 11.9%, yet this year the Shanghai A-share market has been one of the worst performers in the world, falling 23%.
But perhaps China's stock markets are more important and rational than we give them credit for. Few would question the importance of China's giant economy -- but downplaying the importance of its equity markets may be foolish as well.
China's contribution to the recent global economic recovery is well recognized, with the state rather than consumer spending driving growth. China played a leading role with its massive stimulus and infrastructure program and state-sponsored bank lending.
Many now believe the revival in commodity prices, Asian exports and the new cycle of capex spending is down to China's stimulus. As Nomura wrote in recent strategy piece: "Investors are being betrayed by the fact this cycle commenced in China, flowed into developing markets, and then finally resuscitated growth" elsewhere.
There is also clear evidence of China's stimulus translating into equity-market movement.
An HSBC equity research note said that in November 2008, when China's government announced its 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus program, the stock market began its recovery.
It could be China's stock markets and investors are rational, as they recognize China's economy is uniquely policy-driven. Forget GDP growth numbers (which are widely considered to be unreliable) and instead, follow policy changes.
HSBC also highlighted that this year, when the government announced an increase in bank-reserve requirements and property austerity measures, the equity market turned south on cue.
Beijing's far-reaching grip on the economy means policy pronouncements can be particularly impactful. Nomura notes for example that for H-shares (mainland Chinese incorporated shares listed in Hong Kong), they consider over 75% to be policy-driven, counting those where the government directly controls prices, in addition to banks and property that are directly impacted by tightening measures.
So the next policy move by Beijing is being carefully watched. Most still expect an interest-rate hike and for authorities to be satisfied the housing market has slowed down before easing off on tightening measures. The danger is, in a risk-adverse environment, pulling off a soft landing in the housing market has just become that much harder.
The European debt crises will also give policy makers more to think about as the sharp drop in the euro makes China's exports more costly. The consensus still appears for no change in policy until the third quarter at the earliest. Nomura suggests the situation means investors will need to be patient before there is any turnaround in administrative measures by the Chinese government.
More than ever, investors globally will be watching China's policy makers and its A-share markets. If we believe that A-shares are a lead indicator, they appear to be telling us that not only is China's growth not as strong as the numbers suggest, but that global growth too is also looking suspect. We can expect increasing discussion on whether we are now facing a double-dip recovery.

Hoop
18-06-2010, 12:01 PM
This latest rally attempt (broken back S&R 9900 / MA200 / 3 month downtrend) by the DOW is a watershed event at the moment.

If the recent bottom is indeed a bear trap (attempting to lead into a bear cycle) and in reality it is still a bull market going forward then this latest rally has to keep going.

If this latest rally peters out then the question has to be asked ..Is the DOW still following Shanghai?

Note the low volume in this latest rally attempt.



http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW17062020.png

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Shanghai17062010.png

ALSO..Attached at the bottom... is the DOW blue / base metal index brown chart...this is just one of my leading warning signal charts I use...notice how a major Trend /S&R line change in the metal index precedes the drop in the DOW. It makes for a great SELL warning indicator signal as gives a day (or two) warning before the drop ( hard to see on my small sized chart..how can I make incredible charts larger???). It is not a leading indicator in the recovery buy zone but at this stage of an equity market cycle it can act as just another good confirmation indicator.
I use the Copper index as one of my leading buy zone areas..but it only works best during the change of equity market cycles from bear to bull...for the other periods of the cycles it is not 100% accurate. (see Investor strategies in secular bear cycle thread)

..note how the DOW/Metal chart is indecisive at this moment.... the chart is unconfirmed and is still advising caution.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOWMetalscomp17062020.png

beacon
18-06-2010, 01:42 PM
Not a TA expert Hoop, but global governments have a beggar's choice in the matter long term...
In the short term, sentiment prevails. As Buffet said, a voting machine (hard at work, as you can see) ...

Hoop
26-09-2010, 12:50 PM
Update

Good News out from the USA...on the 17 Sept the S&P500, DOW, NASDAQ all broke upwards back into a bull trend...Is this good news for the rest of the Global Equity Markets???

Nah.. they were the last of the 3 of the 4 bears. Chartwise they are lagging the rest.
Will Japan the 4th bear follow? ...probably.

In my previous posts I've mentioned that I have noticed that Shanghai seems to be the leader by about 2 to 3 months since the 2008 /2009 crash ...when Shanghai turned to custard and failed to come out of its then Bull market Correction in the last half of 2009 so turning into a bear cycle..it seems improbable that the rest would follow as although economic problems were plentiful the recovery seemed robust enough to sustain a bull market cycle for a number of years ...However global markets did follow Shanghai into a bear trend. Why should Shanghai be the leader ?.. I have no idea.

So what is happening with Shanghai now?...It broke its bear trend back into a bull trend on 26th July and as predicted 2 to 3 months later the rest followed (see below)

Shanghai Comp...26 July
NZX50................1 Sept
FTSE..................3 Sept
All Ords..............10 Sept
DOW..................17 Sept
S&P500..............17 Sept
NASDAQ.............17 Sept
NIKKEI................Not Yet

Other Global markets such as Germany India didn't suffer a bear trend South Korea is very bullish. However I had not mentioned these in my earlier post so I will continue to omit them unless they deviate away from the Global bullish trend.

So is it good news from now on?....Well yes and No....No if we continue to use Shanghai as the leading indicator.

Shanghai our leading Goldilocks has broken a trend line which looks very suspiciously like that this last 2 month rally has been nothing more than another Bear market sucker rally. However it is presently in a trading range and a sucker rally will not be confirmed until it breaks that 2565 support.

The charts below show the leader at the top and the followers below...
e.g All ords followed NZX this time ..NZX went bullish on the 1st Sept All ords followed 9 days later on the 10 Sept.
.....All Ords and the S&P500 are tracking within 7 days of each other with the All Ords leading.
On the DOW chart the vertical lines are explained as confirmed Bull or Bear trends

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Shanghai24092010.png
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5024092010.png
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FTSE10024092010.png
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/AllOrds24092010.png
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW24092010.png
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP50024092010.png
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NASDAQ24092010.png
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Nikkei22524092010.png

ananda77
27-09-2010, 05:55 PM
Hi Hoop

look at the US 30 and then look at this candle pattern http://i53.tinypic.com/2j44sgw.jpg,,, anyway, bulls need confidence above all 'DO NOT DOUBT THY HELICOPTER ACTION'

Kind Regards

ananda77
27-09-2010, 06:32 PM
...another bullish set-up, developing lately:

http://i54.tinypic.com/15h2a35.jpg

(emphasis here is on the 10-month simple MA not the regression channel)

Kind Regards

Hoop
13-10-2010, 03:49 PM
Good news update

Quote from the 29-09-2010 thread

So is it good news from now on?....Well yes and No....No if we continue to use Shanghai as the leading indicator.

Shanghai our leading Goldilocks has broken a trend line which looks very suspiciously like that this last 2 month rally has been nothing more than another Bear market sucker rally. However it is presently in a trading range and a sucker rally will not be confirmed until it breaks that 2565 support.

Shanghai Composite did not break down at the end of September it has ralled and broken out upwards out of its ascending broadening wedge/trading pattern type formation.. a bullish sign.

The chart speaks for itself so no need for trend , S&R lines.

For the gap watchers ...spooky ..huh

So is Shanghai still leading ? ...Well, the other markets seem to in that flat patch that Shanghai has previously experienced (without the bear scare so far..yet to come?)... so.....perhaps Mid to late November may be looking real good for the NZX FTSE All ORDs. Early December DOW S&P500....lets predict then wait and see

In the meantime lets go GAP hunting :)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Shanghai12102010.png

Hoop
26-10-2010, 09:05 AM
:)
Shanghai Composite off on a little rip-snorter of run ... What a beauty.

Still snorting Belg...Snorted that much that everyone now knows it's a Bull now. Its just broken its primary bear trend adding another confirmation that it has resumed its Bull Market Cycle.:)
.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Shanghai25102010.png

Hoop
26-05-2011, 09:06 AM
Well that Primary down trend break in October 2010 unfortunately was a fizzer (marked as an orange dotted line in chart below)

It's confirmed (breakout) Goldilocks is really a bear.

For a while last year the Shanghai Composite showed bearish tendencies but the break upwards in October 2010 and the established up trend gave hope that the market just had an unusually long bull market correction. Well... yes, it was a big breather, but remember it had galloped from the base line of 100 in Mid1991 so this type of correction is plausable.....but.. unfortunately TA charts is saying there is a good chance the answer is no. It now looks like it was a 9 month sucker rally...time will quickly tell if this breakout yesterday is real or a bear trap, but the odds of it being a bear trap seems low.

Shanghai Comp Index has 872 companies. It has this distinct Bear Market look about it and this must be a worry Globally because China is No 2 in the world and can not be ignored.

Quote from The Spreadbet.com (http://www.espreadbet.com/financial-spread-betting/indices/shanghai-composite-index/) .."It is also widely held that, increasingly, the Shanghai Composite Index will accurately reflect China’s economy as a whole, but certain large state organisations in key areas such as healthcare and energy are yet to go public. ...."
So is the Shanghai Comp index a reflection of China's economy? OK, from the quote there is still doubt ..but if it is true, then China has economic problems and this must effect its neighbours, Australia and other countries relying on commodities exports.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/xm51akguy2jcehqftyxp.png

janner
08-06-2011, 09:32 PM
A ( THE ) Biggest exporting employer of labour in China was removed from the Hang Sen today..

What does that tell you Belg ??

" The times they are a changing ".. IMHO..

Where now ??..

Hoop
09-06-2011, 01:04 AM
Hoop, How are you feeling now? Some dangerous looking patterns forming on some of the major indicies (double tops? mainly) and the Shanghai Comp is precariously placed on a tipping level. I'm feeling more nervous than I have for quite some time.

yeah me too Belg ...I've got this terrible gut feel of deja vu. Many country's economies have hit a flat patch recently, also China's growth rate has suddenly fallen ....what has caused this and why all suddenly and unexpectedly at the same time?...if it is due to high (but not extremely high) commodity prices then all these economies must be in a terribly fragile state. CNBC interviewed Gary Shilling yesterday and he didn't make me feel any better either....in fact, he was rather negative.


A ( THE ) Biggest exporting employer of labour in China was removed from the Hang Sen today..

What does that tell you Belg ??

" The times they are a changing ".. IMHO..

Where now ??..

Janner I'm glad Foxconn has hit hard times...My point of view is it's one very very large ugly mother of a company. It treats its employees worse than cattle, its involved in all sorts of shenanigans, been caught out price-fixing recently, and its safety record is crap...Company making losses is mainly due to its feudalistic management methinks

winner69
14-06-2011, 07:41 AM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10732010

Shame on you Belg ... believing that sort of crap

Hoop
04-10-2011, 10:06 AM
Well 2.5 years ago we were looking at Shanghai Composite our leading indicator Goldilocks which lead the rest of the worlds equity markets (stock markets) out of the GFC bear market...Since then Shanghai turned first from Goldilocks back into a bear and now the rest of the world are following abeit slowly for the European and American equity markets. So once again....do we have to look to the Asian economic powerhouse to keep showing us the way.....why not...as a leading indicator Shanghai Comp has been excellent so far....

..So with reference to the Shanghai "leading indicator" ....Is the world equitity markets due to change for the better in the next couple of months??....The answer is NO

Unfortunately or fortunately the Chinese are having a week off work this week...as the Shanghai Composite is sitting exactly on a conjuncture. So where to from here????... up or down????... The bear market is 2 years old now, so the bear is very mature and one would expect that a conjuncture at this late bear stage would see the death of the bear....but there are worrying signs as there is no recession in China to signal a new Bull and there are fiscal controls in place to curb growth so to tackle inflation, a signal that a bear cycle will continue. ..For the outcome it seems we will have to wait and see and from the chart we won't have to wait long either.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/txnvoiginxc6pza3y.png

Hoop
24-01-2012, 10:47 AM
Colin Twiggs Site is showing the latest charts (http://goldstocksforex.com/category/stock-markets/) with some Major markets switching to a primary bull tide.

When watching for a global turnaround in the Equities Market one has to be aware that not all markets follow each other..they only all meet together to create a perfect storm infrequently....
however....
The shanghai composite has been in a bear market cycle longer than other global markets .....so I assumed this would be a good leading indicator for other Equity markets. It was when it turnaround in 2008 and the rest followed some months later....its seems likely though this is not going to happen this time....Some Equity markets seem to breaking out of their bear tides but Shanghai Comp remains as the party pooper....
This is strange...
With China a couple of months ago starting a monetary easing program to circumvent an economic slowdown we would have expected this easing action to have a positive upward pressure on the Equity markets..this has so far not been strong enough to turnaround the bear tide.....
so...
If Shanghai Market is still a leading indicator then many of the Worlds Equities are creating a bull trap?...
or..
is Shanghai..China (once the Goldilocks) reversing its role and with India becoming a laggard indicator?
or..
Shanghai Comp was never an influencing factor in the first place...just a coincidental happening.
Amazing considering the world is pinning its hopes on China to help them minimize the possible fallout from an European financial bomb.

Hoop
02-03-2012, 09:17 AM
Tha ASX seems to be more in tune with Shanghai than the S&P500 atm......... both markets are in cyclic bear market cycles.
Both countries avoided negative GDP growth (recession) in 2008 resulting in tighter fiscal controls (theoretical down pressure on Equities) in relation to other global countries.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/shanghai29022012.png...

Hoop
15-08-2012, 12:01 PM
Well it was said back in 2011 that the ASX (AORDS) should keep an eye on Shanghai for a lead of direction...Is that still a valid statement.??
Shanghai was an leading indicator at the time of the 2008/2009 crash....since then the oscillations have shifted towards the AORDS being the leader....up to now that is...
Both Indexes are in a cyclic Bear Market Cycle..the AORDS bear looks to be a weaker state though.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/AORDSVSSEC13082012.png

Hoop
28-03-2013, 08:50 AM
The scenario
Back in October 2008 during the GFC and with the sharemarket crashing beyond belief and there were doomsayers on each corner all pronouncing the sharemarket is going to keep falling for years..

Amongst all this chaos a person from the future appears and grants you one wish....You say... "What will be the financial outcome of this GFC mess by the end of March 2013 using economic growth data of the major countries?"
A flash of light and a memory stick appears with all the economic data and two bonuses...wow...2 years of media articles from 2008 to 2010 showing what well known advisers were going to write....and..a hint 2 Countries stockmarkets will have recovered all their bear market losses by end March 2013 ..............The Countries were not named but with all this economic data it will be easy to pick which 2...eh????

WOW...I'm going to make a fortune.....Let see which Country escaped the recession and has the highest ecomonic growth ...ahh China ...wow The Shanghai went from 6200 to now at 1600 Gee 4 times....USA may be one of those hints too as well lets see 1550 now at 800 hmm only 2 times......All the future data shows Europe is an economic mess so forget those markets...I'll stick all my money on the Shanghei Market...its a non brainer...

Result: :mad ;::scared: Bugger!!!!!!!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For some perspective on the post-financial crisis rally, today's chart illustrates how much of the downturn that occurred as a result of the financial crisis has been retraced by several major international stock market indices. For example, the S&P 500 peaked at 1,565.15 back in October 9, 2007 and troughed at 676.53 back on March 9, 2009. The most recent close for the S&P 500 is 1,563.77 -- it has retraced 99.8% of its financial crisis bear market decline. As today's chart illustrates, China (Shanghai Composite), Japan (Nikkei 225), India (S&P BSE Sensex), Germany (DAX), France (CAC 40) and the UK (FTSE 100) are all above their financial crisis lows (i.e. above 0% on today's chart) while none of the aforementioned countries are currently trading above their respective pre-financial crisis peak (i.e. none are above 100% on today's chart). It is interesting to note that the US (epicenter of the financial crisis) has outperformed the other major stock market indices while China has lagged.

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20130327.gif

Hoop
24-04-2013, 10:15 AM
A lot of media noise about gold and copper atm
Here's one more bit of noise to add to the collection :)

Not enough evidence...but my chart has picked up a recent curious copper down/equity up divergence ..when this type of divergence last appeared 5 years ago it ended up badly for us Equity investors. Maybe something to keep at the back of your mind ..eh? tick.. tick.. tick.. BOOM

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/CopperDowChart23042013.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/CopperDowChart23042013.png.html)

Hoop
28-05-2013, 07:46 AM
Tableau Public is Open source software which organises large amount of data into a simplified interactive web graphic form. Open source is free to the world and individuals around the world are using it for all sorts of things.
Below is a link from a French Journalist (Le Monde newspaper) who has made a time chart of Europe and shows the countries in recession in Europe from 2007 to now
Remember when viewing any of these charts the graphic info could be erroneous much of it are written by unknown individuals.

Its interesting to see from this Journalists Europe recession chart that some countries seem to be economically improving...this would explain the lower media noise about Europe atm

There's also a rule of thumb...Equity markets turn bull 66% through a recession...we've had the FTSE bullish breakout at the start of the New Year

http://www.tableausoftware.com/public/gallery/europe-recession

The above URL also contains the free download of the Tableau Public software...I am learning to use it atm ....lots of fun but I need spare time to master it and spare time I'm short of atm.

Below is a screen print image (not active for Tableau Public program...but is active to all my Photoshop files)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Europerecessionchart-1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/Europerecessionchart-1.png.html)

Hoop
04-08-2014, 10:51 AM
Reposted from the Daily S&P500 thread..I will post more correction type method stuff here as it probably not the preferred diet for many readers on ST.

The S&P500 Bull's demise(historically speaking) is overdue, therefore a turning (reversal) from Bull to bear cycle at any point in time from now on would not surprise me in the least....Reversals and Corrections start off indistinguishable and only manifest themselves as time goes on.. the correction happening now is inconclusive so far...

Remember it is all drama atm ...in the long term aspect atm its a blip hardly seen on the long term chart (see below)..This could change of course but will it??
As I said previously the change will occur when the ducks line up in a row....The odd duck has lined up others haven't.... so ...a cycle reversal isn't indicated yet its too early to tell...I personally have no doubt because I believe the Wall St is still in doubt but as things stand as of last friday it still seems to be a bull market correction..

Whats a Duck?...

I got asked this question yesterday as the person googled it and got nonsense out of the answer Google gave...Well organised..wow great answer...
OK ..let me explain ..I've used this ducks lined up in a row method for so long that I forgot that it was my personal methodology and I named it a duck..It seems in the real world no one has named these types of correlation indicators as ducks so until this moment Google has no reference to my duck methodology....This type of correlation methodology is commonly used but not the duck name.......Sorry about that..

Actually well organised is close..What I class as a duck is the mixing (organising) of event variables and find a correlations with what I want e.g the Equity variable (S&P,DOW,etc)....My purpose is to create these ducks to increase the power of forecasting the DOW/S&P500..the more ducks, the more power of the forecasting.

I received an email received this morning about Consumer Confidence and unemployment rate correlations .....I decided to overlay the DOW on to it to see if it could be a duck....The DOW did loosely correlate therefore I have created another duck to watch...At the moment my overlay charts are static and up dating them is time consuming..however hopefully soon thanks to Google Charts via Google developers (https://google-developers.appspot.com/chart/interactive/docs/quick_start) I may soon have all my ducks self updating...I have done this already with all the listed companies on the NZX using a self updating spread sheet.

My newly created duck (below) as do all ducks make visible information which is usually caste into the shadows due to the every day by day noise..Careful.. only to look at the trends on the chart as the DOW is not to scale

First Glimpse chart observations
1....Day by day drama distracts....so far this latest drop is a hardly visible blip on the long term chart...so no worries yet?
2....When consumer confidence (inverted) is growing and unemployment rate is falling the DOW is usually in the wall of worry phase (bull market cycle)
3....When consumer confidence (CC) (inverted) is at its greatest /unemployment rate (UR) at its lowest the Dow is usually near its top (Final phase of the Bull Market Cycle)
4....Reversals often see a recession and affect DOW
5...Since the last 45 years (charted time period) A recession hasn't commenced when the CC & UR have been this high up on the chart
6...Cycles seen on the chart don't seem to be affected by the FED
7...Don't rely on one duck only..false alarms with this duck appeared in 1985 and 1995.


So what are we looking for on this duck chart at this period of time...A hint of reversal (duck moving into a line)...As we see at this moment in time there is no hint (Yet!!) of this duck lining up to threaten the life of the old DOW (& S&P500) Bull

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOWconsumeroverlayDUCK-1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOWconsumeroverlayDUCK-1.png.html)

Hoop
06-08-2014, 08:38 AM
I'm a great fan of sentiment indicators as leading indicators ..they have this ability of picking up (or causing) events just before they happen..Personally, I see sentiment indicators as a reflection of Animal Herd survival instinct behaviour.

Todays article Kirk Lindstrom uses economic sentiment indicators and as at 4th August sees no negative turns, thus concluding it probably be another shallow bull market correction and nothing more sinster (steep cyclic reversal)



The Dow Economic Sentiment Index Supports A Higher Market (http://seekingalpha.com/article/2380525-the-dow-economic-sentiment-index-supports-a-higher-market?ifp=0)

Joshuatree
06-08-2014, 08:43 AM
Thanks Hoop for this thread; pricks my insular:scared::glare::cursing::t_up: little bubble

Valuegrowth
10-08-2014, 06:54 PM
Is it time to become defensive and look for undervalued industries? I think so.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/11023747/Investors-fret-about-overvalued-stocks.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/11023747/Investors-fret-about-overvalued-stocks.html)

Investors fret about 'overvalued' stocks

Hoop
05-01-2016, 10:31 AM
Shanghai Index was the Original Goldilocks in this thread...China was the first major market to lead us out of the 2008/2009 Global Bear market...but the growth turned out to be unsustainable and while the rest of the Equities moved up China faltered until 2015's brief severe Bull market cycle and subsequent bust..
China effect being Number 2 in the world will be felt around the world. Its Australia and New Zealand's biggest customer too.:(

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/shanghai%2004012016.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/shanghai%2004012016.gif.html)

Baa_Baa
03-07-2016, 02:44 PM
An extraordinary week, shrugging off Brexit and markets go on a bender.

8144
FTSE weekly (what Brexit?)

8147
8146
DOW and SP500 weekly (what Brexit?)

8145
Shanghai weekly (well, not a bender, more like no reaction! what Brexit?)

Hoop
03-08-2016, 10:00 AM
Update with BaaBaa's post

The charts below (except MIB IBEX Nikkei) have bullish ascending triangle patterns and some have broken out..(Sensex had a symmetrical triangle)
The Countries with debt problems Italy Spain and Japan..their sharemarket charts show bearish descending triangle patterns..

Interesting ...huh

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Charts%20world%20sharemarkets%2003082016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/Charts%20world%20sharemarkets%2003082016.png.html)

The Tape Trader
03-08-2016, 10:50 AM
Update with BaaBaa's post

The charts below (except MIB IBEX Nikkei) have bullish ascending triangle patterns and some have broken out..(Sensex had a symmetrical triangle)
The Countries with debt problems Italy Spain and Japan..their sharemarket charts show bearish descending triangle patterns..

Interesting ...huh




Great charts Hoop.

If you have a medium-long term perspective.

Then keeping your eye on Japan, Spain & Italy for a new bull market would show up some great opportunities.

:t_up:

Hoop
03-08-2016, 11:11 AM
Great charts Hoop.

If you have a medium-long term perspective.

Then keeping your eye on Japan, Spain & Italy for a new bull market would show up some great opportunities.



:t_up:

Yep getting in at the ground floor and ride the bull all the way up...one would make heaps....seldom happens though as people get too negative when times are bad and its usually when times are bad that the sharemarket reverses..