View Full Version : Buy now? 29 June 2009
I'm pondering whether its a good time to buy. During the previous tax year I lost money on APT and SAN, and for the tax year just ended, my realised profit was higher than expectation. My style that I like best, is to cautiously buy into a stock, exit it its a "bad" trade and accumulate if its on fire. Another approach was when the OCR was dropping- last year, I bought TEL to earn 8% over a four- month period. American and UK markets appear to be weak....and ASX is exciting.
I think that its a see-saw now, it can fall or rise. The health of the UK economy is not good and does not augur well for the London market. Timing is vital to me, unlike what a well known financial columnist (NZ Herald) says i.e. do not time the market.
macduffy
04-07-2009, 06:14 PM
The next couple of weeks could be very important for the rest of the year as we enter what the Aussies call the " confessional period", ie the few weeks before the start of the June 30 reporting season and the time when it's most likely that continual disclosure rules will require bad, or good news to be announced.
Let's hope that it's significant that the few early signs, especially David Jones' announcement have been on the positive side.
Dr_Who
05-07-2009, 07:15 PM
The market will now focus on corporate reporting going forward. Companies that miss forecast will get punish hard.
It will be volatile. Dont try to pick the bottom, it will never work. There are alot of mums and dads out there who think they have a crystal ball and tries to pick the bottom of the market and continues to miss out of some great gains in this market.
Buy value and hold on for a ride of your life.
STRAT
07-07-2009, 12:33 PM
The market will now focus on corporate reporting going forward. Companies that miss forecast will get punish hard.
It will be volatile. Dont try to pick the bottom, it will never work. There are alot of mums and dads out there who think they have a crystal ball and tries to pick the bottom of the market and continues to miss out of some great gains in this market.
Buy value and hold on for a ride of your life.Time to step aside and wait and see I think Doc
Dr_Who
07-07-2009, 01:21 PM
Time to step aside and wait and see I think Doc
For my long term portfolio, I am accummulating on weakness and buy stocks that have already reported or given guidance eg: NUF have already downgraded profit and looks cheap at current prices. Companies that have yet to report are still in the dark as to what direction their sector is heading.
For the short term portfolio, time to sit it out till the cloud clears. Me think the commodities sector may have some short term downside risks.
Extract from an article in the NZX website
For two months U.S. equities have defied expectations for a correction, but charts show that major averages are finally on the cusp of their first significant pullback since the start of the March rally due to worries about economic growth.
"This is a start of a correction," said John Kosar
NZX
I can see that there was a low in the month of March (great time to buy) and a subsquent recovery to June. Question- is this recovery sustainable? And will "little" NZX be be swept and tossed by waves from overseas?
Interesting comment on the continual disclosure rules leading to corporate results for the period ending 30/6/09.
Institutional traders/investors would have done their homework (i.e. research) and perhaps have a plan on what to do with their shareholdings around the time disclosures/results are announced. Retail traders/investors like Pop and Mom may only read the news in the New Zealand Herald. And on hearing negative news, contact their stockbroker for advice.
I suppose its accumulating good stocks on weakness, for a long-term porfolio.
No sir- not for me because I'm trying to make my "breakaway money" that's the term George Clooney used in a movie. And I certainly don't want to have a great portolio when I'm old, grey and feeble- and let the the kids spend it!
Yep no wins to speak of. A realised loss is the only result. My consolation is that my first ASX trade is up 10% but after exchange its more like a 5% gain. At times like this, its like no better than making a wager on the roll of a dice.
and exciting. It's as if the good times are back.:)
ASX
Banks look good today.
CBA up above 4%, and I'm hoping ANZ SP hits A$20 within the next two months.
Mining stocks
Going strongly- but I have to observe and learn before buying.
REIT- to avoid
NZX
I like AIR but its SP is high now. Like wise for FPA. Chances of a win is lower than that of a loss..I think.
Tommorow is the start for the month. NZX and ASX are doing great.
Action.
Sell and realise some profits?
For
"A bird in hand"
Against
Stocks price rise and increased profits are lost.
Buy and accumulate stocks that are likely to rise in tandem with the market?
For
Attractive gains
Against
If I get it wrong I might be stuck with non performing stocks. Or exit at a loss.
Day-trade
Not up to that skill level. To be avoided.
Decision, decision and decision..
I feel the adrenaline rush now, in anticipation of a lively and active marketplace. This month might very well be confirmation the long awaited recovery.
macduffy
02-08-2009, 05:02 PM
The Australian market's just had its best five month run in over 20 years.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25864280-643,00.html
Shows the danger in ever being completely out of the market ( he said as he breathed a sigh of relief!)
;)
fungus pudding
02-08-2009, 05:23 PM
I suppose its accumulating good stocks on weakness, for a long-term porfolio.
No sir- not for me because I'm trying to make my "breakaway money" that's the term George Clooney used in a movie. And I certainly don't want to have a great portolio when I'm old, grey and feeble- and let the the kids spend it!
Then again you can aim to build up a good income frrom dividends and then there's no point in selling, because the biggest problem becomes what to do with your income, let alone adding to it by selling off your assetts.
macduffy
02-08-2009, 05:40 PM
Then again you can aim to build up a good income frrom dividends and then there's no point in selling, because the biggest problem becomes what to do with your income, let alone adding to it by selling off your assetts.
..... and besides, although we may get old and grey, we don't necessarily get feeble, just yet!
;)
Ausralian bank stocks are likely "over-bought", and there were hints of a correction on Wednesday and Thursday, but on Friday prices held steady to end the week unscathed. So what do I do now, buy, hold or sell?
Anyway I'm hoping that the CBA share price hits A$50 next week.:cool:
contrarianinvestor
11-08-2009, 12:51 PM
Anyway I'm hoping that the CBA share price hits A$50 next week.:cool:
Why do you hope for higher prices if you can buy better business value at lower prices? I assume you will be a net-saver for the next few years.
Anyway look at this poll (http://www.news.com.au/poll/display/1,23628,5040980-5017313-1,00.html). Retail seems to be out of favour so I'll start looking there for bargains.
Why do you hope for higher prices if you can buy better business value at lower prices? I assume you will be a net-saver for the next few years.
Anyway look at this poll (http://www.news.com.au/poll/display/1,23628,5040980-5017313-1,00.html). Retail seems to be out of favour so I'll start looking there for bargains.
Thanks, and I did have Postie and Briscoes on my watchlist a few months back. And yes this sector will fire up sometime in the future.
Its an extraordinary time now, and looking back, I am proud to say that that I was in the market at the beginning of this year- the likes of which I may not see again in my lifetime.
It appears to me that the market is doing a catch-up on financials which had lagged behind resources. And I seldom chase shares in the belief that its is risky. But if indeed there is some permanence in this upturn- I'll be in the action, not sitting and watching from the sidelines.
I "feel" the strenght of buyers and if it wanes, then EJECT.
Yes I am a net-saver- only because I'll rather forego the used Audi Quattro than to reduce play in the stockmarkets.
re@der
16-08-2009, 03:32 PM
Briscoes has had the cash for years waiting for the ultimate or even a good purchase. Perhaps they need to give some back to shareholders. Apart from the initial run on the IPO and reasonable divs a bit of a disappointment regarding price.
The stockmarket has not climbed as much as I hoped, but on the other hand it has not dropped either.
My ASX trades
Sold my MCW shares when its price dropped and realised a loss. Shortly after its share price kept rising.
CBA- exited when the price dropped and realised a small loss.
Bought ALZ on Thursday and its share price went up yesterday- and I bought some more!.
I've to learn how to trade in the conditions now. Like the technique of buying stock that are shooting upwards.
It appears to me that the market is doing a catch-up on financials which had lagged behind resources. And I seldom chase shares in the belief that its is risky. But if indeed there is some permanence in this upturn- I'll be in the action, not sitting and watching from the sidelines.
I "feel" the strenght of buyers and if it wanes, then EJECT.
Yes I am a net-saver- only because I'll rather forego the used Audi Quattro than to reduce play in the stockmarkets.
And how do you "feel" the strength of buyers?
And how do you "feel" the strength of buyers?
I do not have any proper techniques to evaluate the strength of buyers, and rely on observation of the daily trades of the counters in my watchlist, and the historical charts that show the price and volume traded.
Markets love to tank in October/November. Expect a lull, BUT NOT a big correction as we're in a consolidation process after a recession, between now and end-of-year. See it as a buying opportunity. Don't try and pick the bottom, just spread your buys on carefully chosen companies (biggest fallers?) over Oct, Nov and keep the stops tight. Pretty much what I'll be doing.
Thanks belgarion- I'll watch out for the "tank". Yes the biggest fallers attract my attention, (and currently PGW is one of them), and eyes will be open in the next few months.
Selected stocks rose eventually- only that my timing of entry and exit was not quite right.
Realised profits for the week just ended were more than the accumulated losses, so I am still in the game.
Bought a nice leather office chair (including a seat tilt), as a reward.
It seems to me that there is a lack of sharetrading skills around. Do you know that my Kiwisaver account showed a loss?
If I can make a net profit for this year and the next year as well, then I may want to be a certified financial adviser.
Strategy: hit and run, stay on sidelines if confounded.
Prediction: upward bias, with choppy ups and downs
Share prices will move- opportunities abound.
On A $ stocks, it has much more volume. Bids and offers before the market opens is an indication of the opening price. And I find the final 10 minutes after 4:00pm engrossing.
I have looked at the chart twice and am intrigued that it shows that a good time to buy was when the moving averages intersect. It looks like it holds true when the market is bullish, perhaps? Hey I'm happy when share prices rise.
Sold the reminder of my REIT shares. Bought into a nickle miner. Now my interest is dependent on the price of nickle- never knew that non-ferrous metal prices could be so volatile.
Bank stocks are heading up north, a thundering horde. I would have scoffed (privately) at the thought of ANZ sp touching A$23 two months ago.
Logic does not seem to work in the vast and complex world of stocks.
There is so much to learn, pitfalls to avoid, and so much information to digest.
Approach
Simplify and trade in the way that best suits me.
Reward (subject to realised profits)
A 2- week holiday to Australia.
loofa
21-09-2009, 08:45 PM
Advice received today -Sell the FTSE100 at 5170
It dropped 40 on open but will it stay down.
If INDU follows the NZD should also be a good bet for a fall.
ASX. Missed the rally for the week just ended. Banks stocks are plodding up strongly. Mining stocks are like a yo-yo. IMHO the market is between bullish and trending sideways. And at times, it has a mind of its own, eventually falling in line with world markets.
sharer
26-09-2009, 02:28 PM
ASX. Missed the rally for the week just ended. Banks stocks are plodding up strongly. Mining stocks are like a yo-yo. IMHO the market is between bullish and trending sideways. And at times, it has a mind of its own, eventually falling in line with world markets.
Kia ora Tee. IMEMHPWO (InMyEvenMoreHumbleProbablyWorthlessOpinion) the Market does not have a mind of its own, and certainly never gives a stuff about being out of line or otherwise with any other. What we have is a whole lot of brilliant minds (us two for a start) acting in the Market & producing a collective outcome, the history of which appears in the (DOW< ASX, NZX etc) index time charts.
These charts are then analysed from every conceivable viewpoint in endless autopsies designed by the mathematically over-endowed amongst us attempting to achieve the same as the ancient soothsayers with their bone throwing & inspections of the entrails of murdered chickens to answer the urgent question: What will happen next? (With very debatable success).
By this philosophy a chart combining every available measure of the state of mind of the innumerable human agents active in the Market today would seem the best estimator of the group psychology that can explain the actual price outcome charted today. (For this Phaedrus's recently shown new charts and his MSI trace are most persuasive, because he combines all kinds of relevant information, & most important provides intermediate "warning" grades alerting one to possible/likely/?inevitable turning points just ahead).
Other methods try for same outcome of course. But the resultant will always be a probability only, no matter how extensive the information covered or how cleverly it is evaluated & balanced. For one thing, even if the system explains the present Market closely today, there may be someone not recently active but having lots of money who decides to enter the market tomorrow & upset the predicted trend. Of course the reverse is a frequent fear, that some regularly active agency suddenly wants to leave the market, & we get crushed in the stampede for the Exit.
Rather than attributing human personifications to the Market, perhaps we should imagine we are actually in a mad house surrounded by financial vultures waiting to strip our wealth for themselves. A rational nightmare?
Kia ora Sharer,
Soothsayers, with their bone throwing, may at times, prove superior to learned TAs. For the market makes no distinction neither between prince and pauper, nor between learned and street-wise.
A chart encompassing the state of mind of the innumerable players is a very interesting idea. But the share price of a stock is in a state of flux, dynamic (or the potential to be so) whilst the market is open.
A prediction is but a tool to aid in decision making (buy, hold or sell). One must be prepared to act in any trading day. Like to make a trade to cancel out a trade, if the market turns bad. And at that moment, one cannot say whether the decision is right or wrong.
Hugh trades usually means that institutions are in the action. I imagine them as sharks lurking beneath, and when they strike, retail players ran and hide or join in the frenzy.
And yet when the market is rising, everyone can make some $.
No, not a madhouse surrounded by vultures, not when one is cold and calculating in accepting wins and losses, and not losing sleep over it.
sharer
28-09-2009, 05:39 PM
Maybe we should form a JV to try out our psychophilosophical investment strategies?
As hard working philosophers of course we would have to visit the pub for a symposium after markets close. I wonder if the glasses of Tui would qualify as essential expenses for tax deduction purposes?
Maybe we should form a JV to try out our psychophilosophical investment strategies?
As hard working philosophers of course we would have to visit the pub for a symposium after markets close. I wonder if the glasses of Tui would qualify as essential expenses for tax deduction purposes?
Such a JV may just be the vehicle to drive through this maze, a beacon of light shining in the darkness.
As practitioners of the art of psy..investment strategies, it is a requirement to imbibe a little Tui, or Monteith or MacsGold, so long as one stays cool until 5:00pm. Dispensation, to this cardinal rule, is to do so not any earlier by 15 minutes.
Drinks, during working hours, are incurred in the the production of income, and IMHO, tax deductible. Jugs of Tui during happy hours is something else.
NZX
"Disastrous". Unrealised profits bulit up over two months had to be off-setted against losers from recent purchases. Two bad trading incursions have shaken my confidence. My response- to exit completely. Exposure is now minimal.
ASX
Sold my holding in a REIT at a small loss. No exposure now.
So I am back to pondering when to enter the markets again.
Prediction: Don't know
Strategy: Undecided
Action: Look for a cheap air ticket to the Gold Coast to recuperate.
evilroyrule
06-10-2009, 11:48 AM
looking for some help please. cuurently use directbroking online. how can i borrow against equity in existing portfolio to purchase more shares? thanks in advance
Try ASB Securities, the staff there will be quite willing to attend to an enquiry. I imagine that opening a margin account is like taking a loan from a bank, and do be aware that margin calls may be made should the value of your stocks drop. IMHO its only suitable for seasoned traders (like day-traders).
evilroyrule
06-10-2009, 09:04 PM
thanks for that. had not thought of having to cough up in event of decline, which is likely to happen shortly by all accounts. ill just stick with what ive got.
A week of reflection on my trading style.
Presently, I seem to have fallen into very short trading periods. A reluctance to hold on to a stock for even a few days. And taking low profits, something that I would not do in the past half year.
Yes I do day trades now.
CFD contracts are attractive now. It's the platform for day traders. Will I have the ability and discipline to manage this? Time will tell. Strategy and approach to be formulated in various situations, like when I have a made a "bad" trade, how to close positions within a day. Yep I am looking at the worst possible situations, and not carried away by images of huge gains.
ASX
CFD contracts volume increased from 4.3 million in Oct 2008 to 15.4 million in September 2009. A phenomenal growth.
Being of a simple mind, all I can say is that there are buyers out there.
At the same time, I am wary - hence the move to short term trades.
CFD margin account.
Short sold NAB last Friday and closed position yesterday- win.
My first short sale.
Bought ALZ @ 49c yesterday and closed at 51c today- win.
Sold A$ yesterday and closed today and realised a profit of $39.60. It was my first FX contract.
But my NZX and ASX equities are now in the red- unrealised loss is about 4 times greater than my realised gains.
Not much of a trader, but I am pleased that I was able to be in a position where I was about 25% hedged.
My shareholdings in NZ and AUS are being eroded by this storm. Is the fear back? Looks like there will be no X'mas cheer. My only consolation is that I have short positions in CBA and NAB in the derivatives market.
On travel to Australia.
My NZ$100 gave me A$60.90 at the airport. Commission was A$10.00. What a rip-off.
CFD trades for the past two months. I hung in there and somehow clawed my way to a smaller loss to date. Currently I have long positions on NAB and the recent rise had erased my losses in November. Last month was not a good month for me. When the sp of CBA and NAB rebounded, I was caught with three margin calls (yes they accept credit cards, and no.. I paid by BPAY)). I've learned not to be over exposed. In fact I have utilised only 10% of what is available as at today.
Trying to figure out how the sp of a counter moves during the day is very hard- for me its just a guess. If my guess is right rate is below 60% or so, I ought to heed the "don't try to time the market" saying.
ASX- lost on mining and currently hold no mining counters (beyond my ability to trade). Gains on SPN and ALZ.
NZX- down on defensive stocks- consolation is that dividends will cover the losses over a year, if their sp do not drop any further.
Strategy. Hold income or stocks with potential to bloom in ASX and NZX. Trade in CFDs in A$ and NZ$, speculate, hedge or punt. I only keep cash for daily needs.
To readers: A Great New Year and may you invest or punt to your heart's content.....and that you'll have more $ for travel, love and adventure...and more investments
Hurray, I 've managed to closed the year with profits showing on my CFD accounts. I hope that it will be a great start for the new year...364 days to go.
Now holding short positions in CBA and NAB. Wouldl have sold more but the CFD website crashed towards the close! What a way to end the year. Don't know whether this is good for me or not. Will know more when the markets open next week.
Cheers
sharer
03-01-2010, 05:44 PM
Kia ora Tee, & all best wishes & good luck for 2010!
Looks like you're going to need some lucky breaks;)
I'm following your adventurous efforts up & down (Hopefully more ups on the way) with interest. And occasional cardiac palpitations !
p.s. - don't forget to look at Phaedrus's latest MSI charts before leaping off the cliffs. At least they might warn of a probable downdraft where you were hoping for something better.
To Sharer, thanks and no I have not leapt of a cliff. So my story continues...
On CFD trades. A $1,000 deposit can buy me the equivalent of up to $15,000 worth of stock. Share price movements are amplified 8- 14 times. . The adrenalin rush starts just before trading. The numbers on the screen comes to life and its trading time. The price is declining ..decision buy or sell...sell to reduce exposure and its a frantic race to close four open positions.
This week I made the most trades of my life and have no profits to show. But I have not given up. My trading style is evolving to that of a day trader- yes I close positions right up to the last second.
A day in the life of a CFD trader just starting out
Target stock (I only trade on stocks that I "know", like if you sell a CFD and it goes ex-div, the dividend will be charged to your account). Look up news and charts and other media for cues or leads. Place trades- new or close or none at all. Quite often the share price is not moving and its a waiting game. Yes I measure my exposure continously - lest a margin call pops up and disrupts my position. These days I close some positions before the day is done. Towards the final minutes , some traders will show their intentions.
Next week I shall open less positions and only trade when the odds are better. Be a little more selective on the time of entry and exit. And time will prove whether this is any better than trying to pick numbers on the roulette table.
Why do I think that many CFD traders will fail?
1. The margin account is a path to overtrades. A normal day share trader with a 50-50 chance to win, will see his winnings rate down if his financial exposure is beyond his means.
2. Attributes and skills for the job- financial analyst, advanced computer user, bookkeeper, snap decisions, ability to execute decisions and a propensity for financial risk. Yep you have to be a gambler.
I was pumped out by Wednesday, and my balance was done by 30%. Trying to predict the intra day movements of CBA and NAB, and getting it wrong more often than getting it right, had sapped my energy and enthusaism. So I closed all positions and stayed on the sidelines.
Verdict: do not have the skills to be a day trader, and hogging the computer screen was real boring.
CFD Trading- IMHO its different from investing in stocks, new skills and techniques are needed to trade well.
Will I keep my CFD account- yes. Its easy to deal or to place an order to open and good for hedging a stock porfolio, and punting when stocks are volatile.
My day trading adventure has ended and its back to investing in stocks.
I can't stay away from the markets. And I'm training hard to master stock trading. I need to be calm and have a clear mind. Not high on booze nor disturbed. Thus far, I have tried to evaluate where inprovements can be made, and the list is long. My "bad" trading habits are/were:- too eager to buy, too fast to sell, holding stocks for too long (delay in recognizing that the market had shifted), tendency to be over exposed, slow to "cancel" bad trades. On targetted stock, I shall need more research. Presently, I keep selected counters on my watchlist and read financial reports and news. Like I am holding long positions on the Royal Bank of Scotland. And I do not know much about it! All that I know are the highs and lows over the past few months from the charts.
Tomorrow, I shall have to get on my bike - to keep a balance between work and play.
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