EXCO RESOURCES (EXS)

[whiteheron]

I note that EXS is up 20% in the last 3 weeks (from 17.5 to 21.0 cents ) but i can not find any reason for this

Does anybody know of any reasons for the relatively quick upsurge in the price ??

[clearasmud]

Shares have just rebounded to 25/26c after falling to 23c because of recent small capital raising at 20c
Apparently is a near term gold producer although everybody has been waiting patiently...

Peter Strachen put a value on EXS at 60c near term so hopefully its time is nearly here!

I hold

[clearasmud]

Melbourne age today (10/4/06)

EXCO Resources' share price has finally got a wriggle on after being in danger of being one of the only copper/gold stocks not to respond to the big gains posted by both metals.

Helping the stock along — it closed on Friday at 27.5¢ — was the cross-promotion of the company by its 14.7 per cent shareholder, Lion Selection.

Lion has been telling punters on its own roadshow that it is sure that Exco's Cloncurry copper resources are going to end up being owned by Xstrata.

Exco's resources are within spitting distance of Xstrata's Ernest Henry copper/gold mine, which needs to tie up additional reserves if it is to continue beyond 2011.

And if Xstrata really wants to cash in on current boom prices for copper, gaining access to the higher-grade material that Exco has on its books becomes compelling.

There is nothing new in all that. What is new is that with the copper price taking off, the value to Xstrata/Ernest Henry of the Exco-owned copper resources has soared to as much as $400 million by one estimate.

For Exco, that represents a big multiple of its current market capitalisation. But without a deal being struck, the market is holding back on giving Exco full value for its Cloncurry copper.

The October appointment to the Exco board of Barry Sullivan has raised hopes that a deal is not far off. Sullivan worked at MIM, now part of Xstrata, between 1974 and 1995.

He had a six-year stint as executive general manager of MIM's Mt Isa operations. During that time the current head of Xstrata's copper unit, Charlie Sartain, was a rising star in the Sullivan team. So the two know each other well and there is mutual respect.

While the behind-the-scenes work on a deal continues, the market has also started to take another look at Exco's gold exposure through its White Dam gold project in South Australia.

Once a native title agreement is reached, a go-ahead decision is a virtual certainty for a low-cost development that would generate super returns at current gold prices. To many in the market, those potential returns alone justify Exco's current market value. Cloncurry copper, then, is money for jam.

[Revhead]

This was released a while ago and was probably the catalyst for the recent run. Been other stuff in the papers lately which is keeping the price moving.


Stock Resource last reported on Exco Resources on 1 February 2006 when we reported that the company had secured a 100% interest in the White Dam gold project through acquisition of the 40% joint venture interest held by its former partner Polymetals. The cost of the transaction was $2m with $1m to be paid at that time while the remaining $1m is to be paid by 30 November 2006.

“Exco Resources remains extremely undervalued in the current commodity price regime. We are recommending Members increase their exposure as the realisation of a higher share price may occur rapidly.”

Since that time not a lot has happened on the company front apart from progressing the native title agreements with White Dam and the mining lease with the E1 deposits (and a bit of exploration), but on the commodity side, both the gold and copper prices have moved substantially higher. These price movements add significant value to these assets which lay relatively unnoticed in this underpromoted company. In the current market Exco actually represents one of the rare value opportunities as outlined below. The question is when this value will be realised!

White Dam Upside Case
With the A$ gold price now approaching A$820 (US$ 588/oz gold price and A$/US$ = 0.72) and some market participants forecasting a US$1000/oz gold price, this gold project has significant underlying value.

The company has previously defined the project with the following parameters and is currently waiting on finalising native title agreement before a likely go-ahead is announced.

In pit Oxide ore (t) 4,300,000
Ore grade (gold g/t) 1.28
Total gold (oz) 176,958
Recovery 70%
Recovered gold (oz) 123,870
Cash costs (A$/oz) 340
Total Costs (A$m) $42.12
Total Capital Costs (A$m) $7.00
Total Capital & Operating Costs (A$m) $49.12

Source: Company

In the following cases using the current A$ gold price, the project’s pretax margin is a robust $0.40 cents per share (pre-tax is used given the significant tax losses available for this project).

Total Revenue at following gold prices A$ gold price Gross Revenue (A$m) Pre-tax margin (A$m) Per Share
US$400/oz & AUD/USD = 0.75 $533 $66.06 $16.95 $0.14
US$450/oz & AUD/USD = 0.75 $600 $74.32 $25.21 $0.20
US$500/oz & AUD/USD = 0.75 $667 $82.58 $33.46 $0.27
US$550/oz & AUD/USD = 0.75 $733 $90.84 $41.72 $0.33
US$600/oz & AUD/USD = 0.75 $800 $99.10 $49.98 $0.40

This $0.40 per share is clearly well in excess of the current $0.22 share price.

E1/Mt Margaret Deposits
Stock Resource has reviewed some of its earlier analysis on the value to Xstrata of processing higher grade E1 ore through the nearby (8km away) Ernest Henry mill. We have assumed a mineable reserve of 88kt of copper which ignores some of the recent exploration success achieved by Exco but nevertheless highlights the significant value of this ore to Xstrata.

In the past we have assumed Ernest Henry cash costs of US0.70/lb of copper but in this exercise we have arbitrarily raised these average cash costs to US$1.00/lb. Nevertheless, with current US$2.55/lb copper price, the cash generated from Ernest Henry processing Exco’s ore is astounding!

Source: Stock Resource

The graph highlights that the margin per Exco share to Xstrata is enormous compared to the market price of Exco. Our argument is that E1/Mt Margaret is highly likely to be acquired by Xstrata and the potential margins indicate that Xstrata has capacity to pay a significant premium over the current Exco share price.

Enterprise Value of Exco
The following table incorporates a recent 3.5m placement undertaken by the company to provide ongoing working capital of $0.7m. The enterprise value remains modest at $27m.

Issued Shares (m) Share Price (A$) Market Capitalisation (A$m)
Ordinary Shares 128.2 $0.220 $28.2
Options (relevant) 41.5 $0.220 $9.1
Diluted Market Cap $37.3
Less cash raised $8.3
Less cash on hand $2.2
Add

[whiteheron]

I see that EXS traded as high as 47c today, no doubt on the coat tails of AUM whilst it was on a runaway

Current price is around 37/38c still pretty good, with further upside expected in due course

[whiteheron]

The EXS share price has been very disappointing over the last 3 months or so, trading down to as low as 21c

It now seems to be coming back to life, rising from 22c to 27c in the last 6 trading days on increasing volumes
The last ASX announcement was 3 weeks ago so this is not the reason for for the move

Methinks that somebody knows something that the market doesnt !!
There must be an announcement/announcements within the next 2 weeks --- at least the quarterly report and hopefully drilling results

Does anybody know anything of interest ??
I will be interested in hearing

Medium to long term EXS has to be a a promising company in my view
Copper will undoubtedly continue to be a great performer for the forseeable future

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by whiteheron
Does anybody know anything of interest ??
I will be interested in hearing

The price started to spike up Wednesday afternoon, just after a tipsheet (Stock Analysis) promoted them, as one of their "best bets" my guess is that after this initial burst of enthusiasim, that we could drift back a touch, despite their excellent longer term prospects.

[financial chatter]

up 15% this morning - what is stirring the pot?

in the last 2 weeks the stock could not be given away at 18/19c, now look.

someone must know (or be expecting) something.

[drillfix]

up 15% this morning - what is stirring the pot?

in the last 2 weeks the stock could not be given away at 18/19c, now look.

someone must know (or be expecting) something.


Probably the roadshow that was started 2 weeks ago kicking in, who knows.

I do know that if it doesn't break past and hold 25c, she will continue with the downward trend.

Support approx 18.5c and if that goes, who knows where it will or could go.

I dont hold but just had a little look at the chart.

Good luck to holders.

[financial chatter]

I think this is what started to stir the pot a couple of days ago.

a further buy recommendation for Exco Resources in two European Market Letters: Austria Boersenbrief (no 1 in Austria - EXS see page 6) and in the Hanseatischer Boersendienst, Hamburg (in distribution for 48 years - EXS see page 7/8.--- Two different markets: Austria and Germany but the same publishing house and therefore the same text (different target group: Austria and Germany).

I just try to translate it into English literally.

Exco Resources - real bargain - BUY

(EXS) - ISIN: AU000000EXS9 - Shares outstanding: 326,1 million - Share price A$ 0.20 (Febr. 5th, 2010) - Market cap.: A$ 65,2 million - cash: A$ 19,9 million (31.12.2009)

Based on their assets, the White Dam Gold deposit and the Cloncurry Copper project can the company be considered as strongly undervalued. Shaw Research, Sydney gives EXS a fair value of A$ 0.45/share. FD Capital increased mid January 2010 the 12 month target price to A$ 0.65. And indeed the investors in general focuses too much of a possible off take ore agreement with the resource giant Xstrata and sold their shares nerve wracking, after the Xstrata annoncement in Dec. 09. The money manager don't believe on a JV agreement with Xstrata anymore. We had a similiar situation with Hillgrove (HGO) as the shares were quoted at A$ 0.14 and we considered that price a bargain. GOLD - The White Dam operation of Exco Resources in Southern Australia goes in production as of April 2010 with a forseen annual output of 50'000 ounces. The production costs are calculated with 570 A$ per ounce. The yearly cashflow will be round 20 million US$. COPPER - The Resources of Exco from the Cloncurry Copper project in Queensland are 51 million tons ore with grades of 0.83% copper = 425'000 tons copper and 0,23 g/t gold = 373'000 ounces. Beginning of December decided Xstrata with a capital injection of US$ 542 million to finance their underground operation in order to avoid the closure of the Ernst Herny Mine (8km away from Exco's Cloncurry Project). Is just a question of time until a JV with Exco became fact. Xstrata needs in principle the Exco copper for reaching an optimum capacity of their smelting works. The first talk were not successful. Exco has no interest to sell of cheaply their "silver". Rather builts Exco an own processing plant. Even a financial participation of a copper hungry Chinese commodity company is more as possible.


Exco Resources (EXS) ISIN: AU000000EXS9 zum Schnppchenpreis
Anzahl Aktien: 326,1 Mio. Kurs A$ 0.20 (5.02.2010) Brsenkapitalisierung: A$ 65,2 Mio.
Barvermgen: 19.9 Mio. A$ (31.12.09).
Die Exco Aktien notiert zur Zeit bei A$ 0.20 - ein wahres Schnppchen. Basierend auf deren Vermgenswerten,
dem White Dam Gold Deposit und dem Cloncurry Kupfer Projekt, kann die Gesellschaft als
stark unterbewertet eingestuft werden. Show Research, Sydney taxiert den fairen Wert von EXS
Risiko-Hinweis:
Jedes Investment in Aktien ist mit Risiken behaftet. Aufgrund von politischen, wirtschaftlichen
oder sonstigen Vernderungen kann es selbst bei Standardwerten zu erheblichen
Kursverlusten, im schlimmsten Fall sogar zum Totalverlust kommen. Engagements in die
vorgestellten Aktien bergen zudem teilweise Whrungsrisiken. Alle Angaben stammen
aus Quellen, die wir fr vertrauenswrdig halten. Eine Garantie fr die Richtigkeit kann
dennoch nicht bernommen werden. Um Risiken abzufedern, sollen Kapitalanleger ihr
Vermgen grundstzlich breit streuen. Einzelne Positionen sollten nicht mehr als 3 bis 5%
des Depots ausmachen.
Hanseatischer Wirtschaftsdienst AG, Langenstcken 36 a, 22393 Hamburg,
Tel.: 040-790 60 84, Fax: 040-790 94 68
pro Aktie mit A$ 0.45. FD Capital erhhte Mitte Jan. 2010 das 12 Monatsziel auf A$ 0.65. Und in der
Tat, die Investoren fokussieren sich zu stark auf den mglichen Abnahmevertrag mit dem Gebiets-
Nachbarn, dem Rohstoffgiganten Xstrata und verkaufen entnervt - da man nach dem Dez. 09
Announcement seitens Xstrata nicht mehr an ein JV Abkommen glaubt - die Exco Resources Aktien.
Eine hnliche Situation hatten wir mit Hillgrove Resources (HGO) als wir die Aktie beim Kurs von
A$ 0.14 als Schnppchen einstuften. Heute notiert der Wert bei A$ 0.20 (4.02.10).
GOLD Die White Dam Gold Mine von Exco Resources in Sd-Australien geht im April 2010 mit
einer vorgesehenen Jahresfrderung von 50000 Unzen per annum in Produktion. Die Frderkosten
wurden mit 570 A$ pro Feinunze berechnet. Der jhrliche cashflow wird ungefhr 20 Mio. US$ pro
Jahr generieren.
KUPFER Die Exco Ressourcen aus dem Cloncurry Kupfer Projekt in Queensland betragen
51 Millionen Tonnen Erz mit Gehalten von 0.83% Kupfer = 425000 Kupfer und 0,23 G/T Gold =
373000 Unzen. Nachdem Xstrata anfang Dezember entschied den Untertageabbau mittels einer
Kapitalaufnahme von US$ 542 Millionen zu finanzieren um eine Schlieung der Ernst Henry Mine (8
km vom Exco Cloncurry Projekt entfernt) zu vermeiden, ist es nur eine Frage der Zeit bis ein JV mit
Exco Resources Tatsache wird. Xstrata bentigt im Prinzip das Exco Kupfer zur besseren Auslastung
ihrer Kupfer Schmelzanlangen. Die ersten Gesprche waren noch nicht von Erfolg gekrnt.
Denn Exco wird das Tafelsilber nicht verschleudern. Eher geht man mit einer eigenen Anlage in
Produktion. Auch eine finanzielle Beteiligung eines kupferhungrigen chinesischen Rohstoff-Unternehmens
wre gut vorstellbar.

[financial chatter]

From Getagraph.com
SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Thursday 11 Mar. 2010]:
Exco Resources Limited is up by 3.85% yesterday from AUD 0.26 to AUD 0.27 The price has been going up and down in this period, and there has been a 12.5% for the last 2 weeks., and is up by 12.5% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 189 756 more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 367 056 shares for approx. AUD 99 105.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited has broken the wide and weak rising short term trend up and even stronger raising rate are indicated. On reaction back there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is AUD 0.26, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory AUD 0.33 will be next possible trendtop level and thereby pose a resistancelevel which may not be broken on first attempt.

Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.26 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 0.25 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.24 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

[financial chatter]

Proactive Investors Forum - Wednesday, April 07, 2010

Exco Resources boosts resources at Cloncurry, is Xstrata far behind?

by Andrew McCrea

The ability of Exco Resources (ASX: EXS) to define a mineable reserve at the Cloncurry Copper Project in North West Queensland, received a boost today with the release of a maiden measured resource at the E1 Camp deposit.

Confidence has been increased by conversion of 37% of the previous Indicated resource at E1 to the Measured category, which comprises 9.2Mt @ 0.87 % Cu and 0.25g/t Au.

Total resources at the E1 Camp have increased to 48.1Mt @ 0.72% Cu and 0.21g/t Au.

Exco Resources Cloncurry Copper Project comprises four key deposits, the E1 Camp, the Monakoff group of deposits, Mount Colin and the Great Australia Deposit.

The main focus of recent drilling campaigns and resource modelling has been the E1 Camp, which now contains approximately 75% of the contained copper within the CCP.

Detailed geological logging and modelling of the E1 deposits has now been completed enabling the updated allowing 9.17Mt to be classified as Measured.

The Indicated and Measured resources at the E1 Camp now total 34Mt containing 257,000t of copper. This equates to 74% of the contained copper within the E1 resource being classified as Indicated or better.

Total resources for the CCP now comprise 55.7Mt @ 0.85% Cu & 0.22 g/t Au of which 37.9 Mt @ 0.86% Cu & 0.22 g/t Au has been classified as Indicated or Measured.

The Companys revised interim goal of reaching 30 Mt of Indicated resources within the CCP, as the basis

for the Definitive Feasibility Study, has been achieved.

The latest resource upgrades have also increased the belief within the company that ongoing work will lead to the definition of a 25-30Mt mineable reserve as the basis for an operation, centred at the E1 Camp, treating 2.5 to 3Mtpa over a 10-year project life.

With growing confidence in the resource and Exco's ability to define a mineable reserve and a sizeable 3mtpa+ operation at Cloncurry would also not be lost on Xstrata - with its Ernest Henry Operation - located just 8km to the east of Exco's CCP project.

Recently, Xstrata said, it "was looking at opportunities with juniors in the region to help bolster mill feed as the project transitioned to underground mining.

Xstrata's commitment to the Ernest Henry underground project could be a major catalyst to a potential deal with Exco having removed the uncertainty over their own future and longevity.

Conceivably, the proximity of the mineable resources at the CCP to Xstratas Ernest Henry Operation presents opportunities for the potential treatment of ore through that facility as an alternative to the development of a stand-alone concentrator operation by Exco.

It would seem feasible for Exco to pursue a commercially acceptable ore supply arrangement with Xstrata, whilst continuing to progress the items that remain on the critical path for the stand alone concentrator option.

Michael Anderson, managing director of Exco is known to be bullish on the project's economics, with or without a partner. It's just that the economics of the Xstrata scenario are potentially so compelling.

[financial chatter]

EXS shareholders would be interested to learn that at the presentation by Charlie Sartain in Brisbane last week of his comment that Ernest Henry Xstrata was looking at opportunities with juniors in the region to help bolster mill feed as the project transitioned to underground mining. As Michael Anderson has said before he views their commitment to the underground project as a major catalyst to a potential deal with Exco having removed the uncertainty over their own future and longevity.



In light of the above, I am sure that Michael will be taking things forward very shortly with a view to getting back around the negotiating table. As he has also said before the standalone, with or without a partner, is always there as our fallback and EXS certainly are of the view that it can be a robust project; however, the economics of the Xstrata scenario are potentially so compelling that EXS simply owe it to shareholders to give it every chance to succeed.

[financial chatter]

CONFIDENCE GROWS AT CLONCURRY COPPER PROJECT WITH MAIDEN MEASURED RESOURCE

The subject line probably says it all in this instance.

The confidence comes not only from the conversion of resources to the measured category, but also as a result of the continued ability to add tonnage, grade, and consequently value, to the CCP. Importantly the increased value of the resources will be captured irrespective of where the ores are milled.



As mentioned in the announcement the Definitive Feasibility Study for the CCP is on track for completion later this year, as directors also look to make a commitment to a preferred development scenario within the next few months.



Progress at White Dam;
EXS are now only days away from first production. Leaching of the ore has been underway for a few weeks now and the tenor of the solutions has been increasing at an encouraging rate, which bodes well for both leach kinetics and recoveries.

Shareholders can look forward to receiving confirmation that EXS has joined the production ranks in the very near future.

[financial chatter]

And this was before this morning's announcement!

No resistance points!

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Tuesday 6 Apr. 2010]:
(Autocomments)
Exco Resources Limited is up by 8.33% yesterday from AUD 0.24 to AUD 0.26 , and has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see if it manages to continue the gaining strike or take a minor break for the next few days. In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 4 out of 10 days, and is up by 4% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 489 006 more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 599 016 shares for approx. AUD 155 744.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 16.2% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.24 and AUD 0.33 at the end of this period.

Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.25 Resistance 1: AUD 0.26
Support 2: AUD 0.24 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.22 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

[financial chatter]

Wilson HTM commence coverage

Exco Resources Limited
First Impressions
Highlights

Exco Resources’ (“Exco”, EXS.AX) Michael Anderson, MD and Geoff Lang,
GM recently presented to Wilson HTM.

Exco Resources is a cashed up Copper/Gold explorer with exploration
tenements in Queensland and with imminent gold production from its White
Dam Gold mine in South Australia.

Exco are in the final stages of delivering a DFS on their Cloncurry Project. A
successful DFS will see the company transition into a junior copper producer
by late 2012. The project is targeting 25kt Cu pa for 10 years.

Key Points
The White Dam Gold Project is Exco Resources’ gold only project that is
currently being “fast tracked” to take advantage of the high gold price with
the intention of generating near term cash flow to fund the primary focus of
the company, the Cloncurry Copper Project (CCP). The White Dam Gold
Project is owned 75% Exco and 25% Polymetals. Polymetals is a privately
owned company and will be the operator allowing Exco to focus on
Cloncurry. Exco is targeting 50koz Au pa @ A$570 cash cost from April
2010.

On 11/9/09 Exco arranged financing with Barclays Capital for A$16m (100%)
through a Gold Repayment Facility. Exco has received A$12m (75%) in
deferred revenue. The loan comprises two tranches with a tenor of 2 years
with a pre payment of 20,915oz, approximately equal to the first year’s
production.

The CCP is Exco’s strategic long term play in Queensland, 40km from
Cloncurry. Exco have grown the CCP significantly over the past 18 months
and we anticipate further additions to the resources. Exco completed a prefeasibility
in June 2008 for CCP on a standalone basis. The company has
now undertaken a DFS on a 2.5-3mt pa plant that would produce 25kt of Cu
pa. Xstrata have left the door open for a junior to potentially feed the Ernst
Henry mill during the operation’s transition to underground mining. This
could potentially provide Exco with near term cash flow should Xstrata
partner.

Wilson HTM view
We are encouraged by Exco electing to not become operators of White
Dam. We typically view small assets with a short mine life as a distraction
when a company is working towards developing a sizeable project such as
the CCP. Relinquishing operatorship to Polymetals will allow Exco to focus
on the primary objective of developing a large, sustainable producing mine
at CCP whilst benefiting from steady cash flow from White Dam.

Exco has just added measured resources to the CCP inventory. We look
forward to further increases in resource confidence as Exco moves towards
completing the DFS later in the year. In addition, we eagerly wait for a
commitment to a development scenario at the CCP.

Exco has been operating in the shadow of successful and well marketed
explorers such as Sandfire and Ivanhoe Australia. We see the current share
price as undervaluing the company on a multiples basis and an option play
into a soon-to-be junior copper producer.

White Dam – 75% Exco, 25% Polymetals
The White Dam Gold Project is Exco Resources’ gold only project that is
currently being “fast tracked” to take advantage of the high gold price and to
generate near term cash flow to fund the primary focus of the company, the
Cloncurry Copper Project.

The White Dam Gold Project is located 80km West of Broken Hill, SA and
consists of 4 tenements, EL3309, EL3257, EL4199 and EL4200.

The project is owned 75% Exco and 25% Polymetals. Polymetals is a privately
owned company. Polymetals will be the operator allowing Exco to focus on
Cloncurry.

Poylmetals is an established mining company and has previously operated the
Hellyer Zinc operation in Tasmania. Exco received numerous bids for the
operatorship and management have described their partners as a “well oiled
machine”.

Production scheduled for April 2010.
2.1mt pa @ 1.05 g/t Au with 70% recovery for 50koz
A$570/oz cash costs 1:1 strip, 2.5 year LOM

Current inventory consists of 75% oxide ore and 25% fresh “sulphide/refractory”
ore.

Exco believes there is significant potential to extend the mine life beyond the 2.5
years. There is an additional 87koz au at Vertigo located just to the south which
is 60% sulphide. Exco are currently applying for a mining lease over this
inventory.

Exco have significant tax losses and are not expected to incur any tax payable in
the near term.

On 11/9/09 Exco arranged financing with Barclays Capital for A$16m (100%)
through a Gold Repayment Facility. Exco has received A$12m (75%) in deferred
revenue. The loan comprises two tranches with a tenor of 2 years with a pre
payment of 20,915oz, approximately equal to the first year’s production (Delivery
schedule below).

Exco have purchased puts over 15,000oz at a strike price of A$1,100 and
has entered contracts for the forward sale of 5,000oz at a price of A$1,216.
Barclays have been granted 4.5m options at A$0.28 expiring on 10/9/10 in
exchange for fees.

We are encouraged by Exco electing to not become operators of White
Dam. We typically view small assets with a short mine life as a distraction
when a company is working towards developing a sizeable project such as
CCP.

Relinquishing operatorship to Polymetals will allow Exco to focus on the
primary objective of developing a large, sustainable producing mine at
CCP whilst benefiting from steady cash flow from White Dam.

Cloncurry
Overview
The Cloncurry Copper Project (CCP) is Exco’s strategic long term play in
Queensland. Exco have grown the CCP significantly over the past 18 months
and we anticipate further additions to resources.

The Cloncurry Copper project is within a 100 km radius of the town of Cloncurry
in NW Qld, Australia. It is made up of numerous tenements and mining leases
including the E1 Camp, Great Australia, Monakoff, Kangaroo Rat, and Mt Colin
deposits.

CCP is well positioned geologically, to infrastructure and to a permanent work
force. The main deposit is the E1 camp which is 8 kms from Xstrata’s Ernest
Henry mine.

The deposit consists of sulphide copper-gold mineralisation occurring mainly in
magnetite, pyrrhotite, and chalcopyrite-pyrite mineral assemblages.

The project sits in proximity to Ivanhoe Australia’s Cloncurry deposit and
Xstrata’s Ernest Henry mine.
Cloncurry - Ivanhoe Australia (IVA.AX) – Resource containing; 3.6mt Cu,
6.1moz Au, 23moz Ag, 91kt Mo and 152kt Re.
Ernest Henry – Xstrata (XTA.LN) – Resource containing; 1.3mt Cu, 2.3moz
Au, 27mt Fe3O4.
CCP – Exco Resources (EXC.AX) – Resource containing; for 457kt Cu,
367koz Au.

Cloncurry feasibility
Exco completed a pre-feasibility in June 2008 on a standalone basis. The
company has since undertaken a DFS based on a 2.5-3mt pa plant that
would produce 25kt of Cu pa @ US$1.5/lb for 10 years. Exco’s indicative
estimates value the project at A$256m using a 8.5% wacc.

Notes from the pre-feasibility
Mining operations will be from 6 deposits located at 3 separate areas.
Operations will centre on the E1 Camp and will utilise open pits using
conventional blast, excavate and haul mining techniques with a waste to ore
strip ratio of 4.5:1.

Pit shells were estimated at US$2/lb Cu with a total Mine Plan Inventory
(MPI) of 22mt @ 0.92% Cu, 0.25 g/t Au.

A 2mtpa plant is expected to utilise conventional methods of crushing,
grinding and flotation to produce a sulphide concentrate to be sold to third
parties for smelting and refining. Test work demonstrates recoveries of 92%
for Cu and 80% for Au. Tailings and waste rock will be placed in surface
dumps close to the processing plant. Water will be sourced primarily from
pit dewatering.

Projected plant output ~20kt pa Cu, 13koz pa Au (~500kt pa Fe3O4)

Total capex of A$208m. Exco have re-iterated that the DFS should return a
similar capex estimate.

Changes to the inventory

Exco has just moved part of the E1 Camp inventory to measured status.
The total tonnage at the E1 camp has increased by 7% to 48mt and grade
has declined slightly to 0.72%.

Exco has recently expanded the CCP inventory by adding the Mt Colin
underground deposit. This deposit is located between Mt Isa and Cloncurry
and is within an 80km radius from the E1 Camp. The deposit contains 1.5mt
@ 2.47% for 37kt Cu. Exco has commenced a study into the economics of
the deposit which has the potential to significantly enhance the economics
of the CCP. The haulage distance from Mt Colin to the planned E1 Camp
plant is the primary outstanding issue.

The resource at the time of the pre-feasibility was 35mt @ 0.92% Cu, of
which, 22mt was to be mined. This implies resource to MPI conversion of
60%.

Applying a similar conversion to the current resource at CCP of 55mt @
0.85% Cu, and assuming no increase to the copper price used in the cut off,
we infer an MPI at CCP of 33mt @ 0.85% for 280kt Cu. This is slightly
above managements expectations of a minable reserve of 25-30mt.

Scenarios for advancing CCP
1) Standalone development – Develop the operation independently,
targeting 10 year mine life with first production from 2012.

2) JV – Develop the operation in conjunction with a partner. Given the
Chinese appetite for investment in resources, it is our view that a Chinese
partner could likely assist in funding the development capital in exchange for
off take agreements.

3) Utilise existing infrastructure – Supply Xstrata’s Ernest Henry mill.

We see three primary reasons for Exco to send ore to Xstrata’s plant, 1) the
plant is within 10km of the E1 Camp, 2) the plant at Ernest Henry processes
similar ore and thus requires minimal modification and 3) the current open
pit at Ernest Henry is close to depletion and the underground production
profile will not be able feed the current mill to full capacity..

Milling at Ernest Henry would bring production forward and save Exco
significant development capital. Xstrata’s CEO Charlie Sartain, recently
spoke at the Austmine conference in Brisbane and gave the strongest
indication to date of the possibility of a junior supporting the Ernest Henry
Mill. Mr Sartain stated that Xstrata was looking at opportunities to partner
with juniors in the region to help increase throughput during the operation’s
transition to underground production. The underground at Ernest Henry
contains 90mt @ 1.2% Cu, 0.68 g/t Au and 25% Fe3O4. Production from the
underground will be materially lower than the previous open pit operation
thus potentially leaving capacity for a junior to partner.

Exco has just added measured resources to the CCP inventory. We
look forward to further increases in resource confidence as the
company moves towards completing the DFS later in the year. In
addition, we eagerly wait for a commitment to a development scenario
at the CCP.

The E1 camp contains large tonnages at modest copper grades.
Mining at less than 1% copper does not preclude positive economics.

Our view is that mining from multiple pits, coupled with the haulage
distance from Mt Colin and Monakoff to the E1 Camp could potentially
reduce the overall economics of CCP.

Exco are hopeful that a successful DFS will see the company
transition into a junior copper producer by late 2012.

Recent drilling at CCP
Drilling activity in the December quarter was limited due to seasonality.
Drilling has since re-commenced and Exco are now targeting further
deposits at CCP. Initial results have returned;

34m @ 0.7% Cu, 0.22 g/t Au from 22m at Eight Mile Creek East
6m @ 1.62% Cu, 0.44 g/t Au at Tanbah Prospect

6m @ 1.56% Cu, 0.71 g/t Au at Salebury Prospect

Joint Ventures
Ivanhoe JV – Exco 100%, Ivanhoe option to earn in 80%
Ivanhoe Australia is expected to earn-in its 80% share by May 2010.
The Ivanhoe JV was formed in May 2007 and covers 560km2 of Exco
tenements in the Soldiers Cap and Tringadee Project areas. The tenements
are contiguous with Ivanhoe’s Cloncurry Project tenements in the Selwyn
district just to the south.

The initial option agreement required
An initial investment of A$7.92m for 12.2% of Exco’s issued capital, the
funds were directed to the company’s other projects.
A minimum of A$600,000 during the first 12 months, and
A further A$4.6m over 3 years to earn in 80% of the project.
Total investment at the project level of A$5m.

Liontown JV
The Liontown JV covers the Fort Constantine South Project which is
adjacent to Exco’s E1 Camp at CCP.

Exco has passed the first stage of the JV by spending A$200,000. Exco can
now earn-in up to 70% by spending A$1m over the next 18 months to earn
51%, followed by a further A$2m to earn an additional 19% to take total
interest in the project to 70%.

Four targets have been drilled with only low level intercepts. Exco is
planning further geological and geochemistry testing, to assess the level of
follow up required.

Financials
Share price A$0.28, Shares 326m
A$91m Market Cap, A$71m EV

A$(19.9)m net debt, A$19.9m cash, A$0m debt as at 31/12/09

A total of 21.05m options are outstanding. 2.5m A$0.20 options expiring at 30
April 2010 and 1.5m A$0.25 options expiring 30 August are all in the money.

22/11/09 The Company raised A$10.1m through the issue of 41.3m shares @
A$0.245.

2/12/09 the company issued 1.65m A$0.275 options which vested
immediately to Fox Davies in exchange for fees.

Exco have pre sold 15,687ozs. The ounces will be delivered from 31 Jan
2011 (see schedule on page 2)

Exco have highlighted a total of A$6.5m in cash burn over the next quarter,
comprising A$1m on exploration/evaluation and A$5.5m on development
capital.

Top 3 share holders, Ivanhoe Australia 20.2%, JP Morgan Nominees 9.5%,
Lion Selection 8.1%.

Valuation
Copper approach (excluding White Dam)
Exco is trading at a significant discount to its peers.

Based on 520kt Cu resource at CCP and using a conservative EV/Resource
of A$348/t, we can infer a value of A$180m. We are aware that 1/4 of the
CCP copper resource sits out side of the E1 Camp at neighboring deposits
up to 90km away. Valuing just the E1 Camp, we can infer a value of
A$120m.

Gold approach (excluding CCP)
Although Exco is a copper company with gold credits, and thus unlikely to
trade at gold multiples, we can still infer a value for the White Dam Gold
Project.

Using an EV/Resource multiple for a junior gold producer of A$125/oz, we
can infer a value of A$30m equity share for White Dam.

Adding back A$19.9m in cash we reach a market value of A$50m. This
implies that the market is only pricing in A$25m for CCP.

A$25m for CCP significantly under values the project. This value implies a
resource of only 80kt Cu @ A$312/t Cu, approximately 6x less than the
current JORC resource, 500kt Cu.

Copper EV/Resource – Australian explorers
Exco is trading at a significant discount to its peers

Going forward
We are encouraged by Exco electing to not become operators of White
Dam. We typically view small assets with a short mine life as a distraction
when a company is working towards developing a sizeable project such as
CCP.

Relinquishing operatorship to Polymetals will allow Exco to focus on the
primary objective of developing a large, sustainable producing mine at CCP
whilst benefiting from steady cash flow from White Dam.

The E1 camp at CCP contains large tonnages at modest copper grades.
Mining at less than 1% copper does not preclude positive economics.

Our view is that mining from multiple pits, coupled with the haulage distance
from Mt Colin and Monakoff to the E1 Camp could potentially reduce the
overall economics of CCP.

Exco has just added measured resources to the CCP inventory. We look
forward to further increases in resource confidence as the company moves
towards completing the DFS later in the year. In addition, we eagerly wait for
a commitment to a development scenario at the CCP.

Xstrata have left the door open for a junior to potentially feed the Ernst
Henry mill during the operation’s transition to underground mining. This
could potentially provide Exco with near term cash flow should Xstrata
partner.

Exco are hopeful that a successful DFS will see the company transition into
a junior copper producer by late 2012.

Exco has been operating in the shadow of successful and well marketed
explorers such as Sandfire and Ivanhoe Australia. We see the current share
price as undervaluing the company on a multiples basis and an option play
into a soon-to-be junior copper producer.

[financial chatter]

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Monday 12 Apr. 2010]:
(Autocomments)
Exco Resources Limited is up by 6.90% yesterday from AUD 0.29 to AUD 0.31 In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 24% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 101 790 more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 948 435 shares for approx. AUD 294 015.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited has broken the wide and strong rising short term trend up and even stronger raising rate are indicated. On reaction back there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is AUD 0.29, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory AUD 0.35 will be next possible trendtop level and thereby pose a resistance level which may not be broken on first attempt.

Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.28 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 0.25 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.24 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

[financial chatter]

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Tuesday 13 Apr. 2010]:
(Autocomments)
No changes to price of Exco Resources Limited last trading day. In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 29.17% over the past 2 weeks.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited has broken the strong rising short term trend up and even stronger raising rate are indicated. On reaction back there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is AUD 0.28, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory AUD 0.32 will be next possible trendtop level and thereby pose a resistancelevel which may not be broken on first attempt.

Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.28 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 0.25 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.24 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

From Getagraph.com

[financial chatter]

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Wednesday 14 Apr. 2010]:
(Autocomments)
Exco Resources Limited is up by 6.45% yesterday from AUD 0.31 to AUD 0.33 In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 32% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 0,25 million more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 1,15 million shares for approx. AUD 381 102.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited has broken the wide and strong rising short term trend up and even stronger raising rate are indicated. On reaction back there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is AUD 0.30, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory AUD 0.36 will be next possible trendtop level and thereby pose a resistance level which may not be broken on first attempt.

Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.31 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 0.28 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.25 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

[financial chatter]

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Thursday 15 Apr. 2010]:
(Autocomments)
No changes to price of Exco Resources Limited last trading day. In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 43.48% over the past 2 weeks.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited has broken the strong rising short term trend up and even stronger raising rate are indicated. On reaction back there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is AUD 0.29, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory AUD 0.33 will be next possible trendtop level and thereby pose a resistancelevel which may not be broken on first attempt.

Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.31 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 0.28 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.25 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

From Getagraph.com

[financial chatter]

fat prophets report

http://www.excoresources.com.au/documents/100414_FatProphetsReportonExco.pdf

[financial chatter]

From Getagraph.com - note the significantly higher 3 month target range:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Friday 23 Apr. 2010]:
(Autocomments)
No changes to price of Exco Resources Limited last trading day. The price has been going up and down in this period, and there has been a 0% for the last 2 weeks..

3 MONTH TREND
Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 60.1% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.45 and AUD 0.50 at the end of this period.

Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.28 Resistance 1: AUD 0.32
Support 2: AUD 0.25 Resistance 2: AUD 0.33
Support 3: AUD 0.24 Resistance 3: AUD 0.34

[financial chatter]

p48 of todays AFR:

Xstrata cancels projects worth $6.6b

.....But it could play into the hands of juniors Exco Resources and Cudeco, both of which are well positioned to supply copper to the Xstrata's Mt. Isa concentrator...


.... Exco said earlier this week that it was still keen to do a deal with Xstrata, as it is the closest known sulphide resource to the Ernst Henry Mine. ...

[financial chatter]

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSigna...lia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources rises 4.0% on high volatility and expanding price range Exco Resources, Australia's 113th largest metals/mining company by market capitalisation, traded between an intraday low of 25.0c and a high of 26.0c. The price range has expanded in the last two days (from 0.50c two days ago to 1.0c today) which, accompanied by a price rise, is a bullish signal. Since the start of trading its volatility (highest price minus lowest price/lowest price) of 4.0% was 4.1 times the average daily volatility of 1.0%, up from 2.0% on Tuesday and 2.0% on Monday. A price rise on high volatility is a bullish signal. The stock price gained 1.0c (or 4.0%) to close at 26.0c, after a third day of trading unchanged at 26.0c. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which rose 77.3 points (or 1.8%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 2.2%.

Short-Term Rating (Technical): 5 out of 5
Its short term rises have been combined with strong volume resulting in strong momentum rises over 1 day. Significantly its price of 26.0c is at a premium of 4% to its 200-day moving average price of 25.0c. Its 52-week range has been 36.0c to 17.50c; it is trading at a discount of 27.8 % to its 52-week high and a premium of 48.6 % to its 52-week low. $1,000 invested exactly one year ago is now worth $1,106 of which $106 is a capital gain.
Recommended stop loss: 24.05c

[financial chatter]

EXS mentioned in Shaws morning notes again referring to last weeks report. Makes specific point that they expect a substantial re-rating on the back of the forthcoming announcement of an off-take arrangement with Xstrata.

Hope that they have got good mail!

[financial chatter]

Over the past 2 weeks or so there has been a consistent seller that reloaded between 30-75k at the top of the queue to sell.

Today that seller seems to have stopped, possibly having finished their line.

Talking to someone who has access to broker data, I understand that Pattersons have been the major seller over the last couple of weeks with 1.65m. So adding the last couple of days trades that have not yet settled and it was possible a line of 2-2.5m that has now been done.

If that selling has finished then we can expect the stock to firm over coming days.

Add to this that the quarterly report is due next week, which will most probably have decent production details in the report, (now that we are a producer), and possibly exploration results from Qld, all of which will add to the strength.

If Shaw's mail is correct with news of the offtake agreement being imminent, then life could be very rosy!

[financial chatter]

looking strong - clear 29c and we might be off and running

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

[sparrow]

think I'll join you guys on this one, has some good basic factors in favour:

1 Maintining a good cash position with the gold mine production;
2 DFS on copper mine due late 2010 incl results of more drilling:
3. Possible agreement re milling ore ore with Xstrata, though would,nt expect this until after DFS.
4: More drilling at White Dam cureently under way
5. Copper price and copper outlook looking positive, depending who you listen to.
6. Some solid laarge shareholders - Ivanhoe, Lion selection.

Sparrow

[financial chatter]

Morgans have put out a research note from Diggers. Worth noting the reference to EXS which supports your view about a rerating getting underway.:

EXCO - Forecast cashflow from the gold project implies the market isn't giving them much for thr Cloncurry Copper project. As we suggest below, we believe copper resources close to production deserve somewhat of a stratgic value as well as trying to value them by conventional methods. Just look the the market caps for the likes of SFR and CGG.




It's the morning tea break Day 2 - Twiggy just held theatre on FMG and is representing the voice of the non-majors re the industry's response on the MRRT.

Diggers Overall so far

+ Record number of attendees, presenters, booths etc - focussed predominantly on WA based gold, nickel, copper and iron ore with a smattering of uranium and minor metals.
+ Local sentiment is bullish/ parochial as you would expect, particularly in gold, but some offshore funds attending are surprised though by our "total and unwavering belief" that China will pull us through the current economic jitters in the West. Obviously still a lot of caution and uncertainty on Asian markets near term from those closer to the action than us.
+ Am surprised by the number of institutional investors attending, looking down into the sub A$250m Market cap and below range in particular. Seems a lot of funds are giving a lot more airtime to Resources both large and small which is really healthy.
+ The event has turned quite political with Andrew Forrest the default spokesman on the industry's opposition to the MRRT. The points nominated in his presentation (just delivered) are worth downlaoding/ digesting and are difficult to argue against in light of how the politics has played out with more reference to the impending election rather than on the actual impact to industry, which even the mining companies cannot model.
+ On this, there's been quite an active call to arms, so to speak, calling on the industry to disseminate this message to its employees, contractors, service providers, all of their familes, and as conference chair Barry Elderige said yesterday, "all of your freinds". Diggers apolitical no more. I assume Julie Bishop's presence is being heavily noted through the press today.
+ We think that our best ideas are likely to be similar to those we picked last year (including RXM, ERM, SLR etc) with a number of the micro caps not having progressed much in the last 12 months in preference for preserving capital. Spending dropped notably post announcement of the RSPT in May also.
+ There are a number of notable absentees in the mid cap producer space that deserve air time at an event like this (e.g. EQN, PNA, MGX, MBN et al). BHP Nickel is the only major represented with notable absentees RIO and Xstrata.
+ We're catching up with quite a few 'under the radar' micro cap stocks today, looking to try to find the next Sandfire, which looks like it will retain its mantle of glamour stock of the conference so far.

Keynote Presenter - Niall Ferguson's keynote presentation was quite thought provoking and well worth downloading if possible

+ Used some great expamples from history to illustrate the theme of his talk which was all about the "Clash of civilisations - and the scramble for Resources"
+ Balance of power in the global economy is steadliy shifting from West to East
+ But nothing, as evidence by most examples in history, takes a simple straight line trajectory
+ Proposed the controversial "Pig's'R'Us" acronym in reference to the demographic/ economic/ standard of living challenges in the US, UK and Western Europe
+ But believes Australia has a unique position in the Asian economy, and has a real opportunity to flourish under the "China's Century" provided we take the initiative on population and capacity growth, which our politicians notably are not
+ Illustrated that Australia's share of global resources versus global production are vastly different, illustrating what a great opportunity we are for countries like China
+ Can't see how China's desire to grow - balancing a centrally run economy with the requiremnt to encourage capitalism - isn't going to be bumpy
+ China themes - Slowly changing from a reliance on the US consumer to the Chinese consumer, encouraging formation of an "Informal Empire" in Africa re recent acquisitions, forming relationships with questionable partners in "the Axis of Oil" in the middle East (Iran etc),
+ Used a number of examples in history to suggest that social upheaval and possible conflict over Resources (e.g. Africa, Middle East) isn't a real risk medium term

Best ideas from the companies represented / we've caught up with so far (including catalysts)

Under formal coverage

Fortescue Metals - Covered by RBS - Probably the most marketable story / Best Buy for your clients. Some politics tied up in the story but the earnings and financials are hard to argue against. There is some feel in the market though that iron ore supply is growing a lot faster than demand, although this is probably a 3-5 year story.

Perseus - Covered by RBS - On track to grow the resource base (and mine lives) to +4Moz near term. Expecting a Resource update before early 2011. Should result in material uplift to market valuations. Implied value following the Kinross/Redback merger announced overnight is clear, although the guys note that corporate enquiry is not as active right now as it has been. Looks like a great exposure to West Africa targeting +300Mozpa of production.

Intrepid - We get the sense that corporate activity in Indonesia is heating up following the NCM deal announced last week. Can explain the volatility in the share price other than the market parhpas catching up with the story.

Not covered / Good stories

Rex Minerals (under review) - getting a lot of interest following last week's Resource upgrade, but still probably in the shadow of the likes of SFR. The guys are doing a great job at interrogating the Resource. Will spend the next 12 months building Resources at Hillside toward their 300Mt target and interrogating possible satellite deposit. Still need to understand some of the metallurgy but this looks like a really neat copper play, cum more market attention, and likely in the sights of potential predators like OZL.

EXCO - Forecast cashflow from the gold project implies the market isn't giving them much for thr Cloncurry Copper project. As we suggest below, we believe copper resources close to production deserve somewhat of a stratgic value as well as trying to value them by conventional methods. Just look the the market caps for the likes of SFR and CGG.

Sandfire - Evolving into an really interesting project, evolving from its somewaht controversial beginnings. The infrastructure requirements not as onerous as we had first thought and the DSO opportunity should heavily offset the estimated A$300m capx costs, provided it proves viable.

Emmerson Resources - 60% of the way through a very aggressive drilling campaign funded via JV with Ivanhoe Australia. Really competent guys with an even better understanding of the geophysics than last year. Has been drifting on a lack of newsflow and probably low volumes. Currently awaiting assays from a potentiall high impact hole into the Ella target where initial chalcocite content looks very encouraging. Could be a neat trade here but probably a binary outcome.

Avoca - A solid gold producer from Higginsvile. Usually a crowd favourite.

Ampella - A really interesting West African gold explorer with a great package of tenements on a major greenstone belt in Burkina Faso. Expecting to almost double the gold inventory by early 2011.

Silver Swan - Not officially represented but Chris has caught up with them informally. Interrogating VMS lead zinc silver targets in the vicinity of Golden Grove, WA. Interesting drill hits so far and probably under the radar.

Hunnu Coal - The only coal compay represented but attracting a strong following / profile. Very early production opportunities from their 2 lead projects in Mongolia where the regulatory and fiscal regimes are quite supportive (5% royalty on exports, 10% company tax, encouraging expat expertise to help develop their Resource base). Logisitics are improving internally and very low mining costs look to support a cUS$25-30/t margin on initial thermal coal production of up to 1Mtpa. hardest point to understand are the pricing terms achievable to customers in China. Biggest catalyst will be Resource upgrades expected in September - HUN have been explicit on what the targets are. Can probably trade the positive sentiment around these.

On our radar but not yet caught up with

Coventary Resources - Gold on the Canadian border
Thundellarra - Recent drilling hits in the vicinity of Doolgunna
Minoutaur - Compiling some really interesting exploration targets
and a host of others

Other themes

M&A / Acquisitions?

Everyone who is looking for acquisitions reports on how difficult they are to find and how unreasonable the seller's expectations are. Companies like Panoramic which have been sitting on modest war chests for a while are now looking a lot further afield overseas to try to find opportunities. OZL was quite explicit in their strategy on global acquisitions and the metrics involved.

Service providers

Feedback from the likes of Runge and Mincom suggest the spending from the majors on software and consulting services is slowly starting to free up. Both emphasise the opportunities offshore, particularly in Indonesia, where mine site technology is coming off a relatively low base. Runge headcounts are growing faster in the offshore offices than domestically, although its surprising ho much work they're doing in the west for the gold majors. Not the easiest story to understand but it loooks like they're through the worst of the earnings cycle.

Valuations

With a stock like SFR trading at a MCap of A$650m it suggests that the market is either 1) willing to apply significant a premium for strategic commodity value (as we've seen in coal); 2) discount the risks around construction; and/or 3) assume steady growth in the metal inventory, which probably isn't a bad assumptions. However at thes prices, it does make some of the established producers like PNA and OZL look like good value.

Site vistis attended so far

Catalpa Resources - Getting more and more market attention ahead of first production from Edna May. Under review.

Integra - Currently underway. Coverage under review

[financial chatter]

Red Hot commentary from Shaws today:

We have a BUY on EXS, and a A$0.50 target price.

We are beginning to believe that the White Dam gold project is even better than the
conservative picture the company is painting.

Michael Anderson is in Kalgoorlie, and it appears the story is gaining some
traction amongst the punters, judging by the buying interest today.

With a project design capacity of 50kozpa, the mine is reportedly running
at over 60kozpa, and we believe this could jump again to 80kozpa, and we
continually revise up our expectations. Why?

* Company being conservative, A$560/oz reported cash cost should
fall, and with only 2 out of 3 leach pads up and running, a 30% jump
on current production looks possible;
* At this rate existing reserves will run out within 2 years, that is why they are
mobilising drill rigs to expand the 170koz reserve and 330koz resource base-
either way, why not produce more gold now?;
* Cashflow to EXS will grow to A$2-3m/month by early next year (A$10m/quarter at spot?);
* Our valuation of A$52m for EXS's share is based on our conservative
US$900-950/oz gold price and a total mined reserve of 220koz. Both the reserve,
and the gold price could grow and we have an A$80m spot valuation on
EXS's 75% share.

Not too many companies are mining gold for A$560/oz or less recently, only
Lihir at Mt Rawdon, Newcrest at Cracow and Ramelius come to mind. Even Avoca
didn't cut it at Higginsville, recording A$671/oz cash cost last quarter.

A common mis-conception amongst non-industry types is you can't make money on 1g/t dirt. Wrong. Some of Australia's most profitable mines are at this grade (think Boddington, Lake Cowal, Mt Rawdon etc). Newmont's McPhillamy's will be in this highly profitable, sub A$500/oz camp in my view (ALK has 49%).

The real value driver of EXS, Cloncurry,continues to be progressed behind the scenes.
We believe the logic for someone to make a move on EXS is increasingly compelling,
particularly with copper at US$3.30/lb.

Even though formal enviro approval isn't due till December, we believe every month Xstrata
waits to do a deal on Ernest Henry offtake, it costs them A$4m. What I mean by this, is
if they wait until December/January to deal on EXS, then it could be too late: The Chinese
and others may have dealt on the project already (see CDU announcement). We believe
the logic of a stand-alone development is compelling, and can be easily funded,
hence the pressure really is on Xstrata to act in the near term.

When? hard to say, either way EXS is not sitting around waiting to be asked to the ball.
It is already fending off other suitors. What happens between now and Christmas
will be interesting, however its hard to see EXS shareholders coming off second best.

Major shareholder Ivanhoe Australia, with their A$1b market cap and 20.2% stake in EXS,
could also be weighing up their options. A scrip bid would be a nice way to throw a spanner in Xstrata's plans, and deliver them yet another production centre to complement Merlin and Mount Dore.

We see plenty of value in EXS, even taking a 50% risk discount to Cloncurry. As mentioned
previously, the stock is trading on 1yrs cashflow once Cloncurry is up and running (assuming
offtake deal) and a PE of 1.4x. Only two things can really happen here, either Xstrata has no interest
in a deal, and prefer to spend A$400m building a shaft at Ernest Henry and exploring for their own ore
or they see a free A$50mpa kick (including gross smelter benefits) from Exco's ore as a reasonable proposition.
If our thesis is correct, then there will be two winners: EXS shareholders +A$200m, Xstrata +A$500m.

[financial chatter]

There is no doubt in my mind that the "interested parties" in negotiations at present are the Chinese.

There is also no doubt in my mind that Xstrata have waited too long to negotiate from a point of strength. We now have the situation as referred to by various analysts, that EXS are fending off offers, so the Board of EXS now have the upper hand.

Xstrata will now be forced to make a genuine offer at a suitably acceptable price. Even if the offer is higher than any offer coming from the Chinese, Ivanhoe could still trump it with a scrip offer.

Furthermore we know that the Chinese will pay top $ for Aussie resources. So Xstrata are going to have to pay up.

We must also be very grateful to the ASX. Michael Anderson must have been very happy to receive the query. That way he was forced by regulation to confirm that they are in discussions.

Two questions remain.
1. How much will the top bidder have to pay?
2. How long will it take to conclude?

I am tipping top dollar and very soon.

[financial chatter]

An interesting article from our friend Barry Fitzgerald at the Melbourne Age 16/08/2010.

We all know now the identity of the fourth player, so Game on!!

"COULD a four-way tussle be unfolding for control of Exco Resources (ASX: EXS) - or at least its Cloncurry copper project (CCP)?

As previously mentioned in Garimpeiro, the pot first got stirred when Exco raised $4.9 million from the placement of 5 per cent of its shares with the Singapore-based, and Chinese-connected, Sin-Tang Development.

Sin-Tang also got an agreement under which it could negotiate to acquire an interest in the CCP, as well as provide debt financing for its development.

The Sin-Tang deal cut across talks that Exco has had with Xstrata in the last five years about ore from a development of the CCP going to Xstrata's Ernest Henry treatment plant. So we now have Sin-Tang and Xstrata on high alert from here on in. The same can be said for Exco's biggest shareholder with its 20 per cent holding and its own big time copper ambitions in the region, Ivanhoe Australia.

The fourth player in all this has yet to declare their hand.

But based on volumes in Exco shares last week, we could be seeing a substantial shareholder notice early this week. We're told we will all find interesting the name behind last week's buying."


Barry must have written the article on Friday prior to the announcement of SOL coming onto the register.

However, I think that there is either the potential of a 5th player, or SinTang or Xstrata have also started to make a move, as the unaccounted volumes for the last week surely dould not be traders.

I recall that IVA are sitting on 20.2% prior to any dilution coming into efffect from the placement of shares to SinTang.

But IVA would be permitted to increase their holding by 3% each 6 months. So IVA may have been a buyer in the last few days.

Like a number of others, I wouldn't rule out IVA making a scrip bid to start proceedings.

Especially as Robert Friedland is so bullish on copper.

However if IVA purely wanted to see EXS sold at the highest price, a scrip bid launched now would ensure a much higher price for their shares should another bid come along from the likes XStrata. No doubt others would come out of the woodwork.

Just like any successful property auction, having a number of keen bidders ensures a good final price.

It might be that Xstrata and anyone else contemplating making a bid might have a window of opportunity to do so without competition from IVA until mid Sept.

IVA's fund raising is due to close then.

If they were to act before then, I think that they would be required to submit a supplementary or replacement prospectus for the fund raising.

[sparrow]

Ivanhoe has increased its shareholding from 19.63% t0 22.69%, paying 43.5 cents per share. Wish I had bought more of these now. Interesting times ahead.

[financial chatter]

what does a 35% price movement mean?

If EXS share price increases from 44.5c to 60c (possibly with an early bid from just one of the likely bidders lining up)

AND

if CDU share price falls the same percentage to $1.50

THEN the market cap of EXS will be greater than that of CDU.

31Mt at 0.8%Cu and 0.1 g/t Au is actually less valuable than the pit inventories for the Cloncurry Project!

Surprised CDU haven't been slammed harder. But more falls should be expected in my opinion.

No way they should be worth what they still are.

Whereas our share register goes from strength to strength with the quality and reputation of the latest entrants.

And the quality of the management make the clear distinction between the companies.

It gives little pleasure to say we told everyone so!

[financial chatter]

Substantial Target Increase leads to buying?

On Friday afternoon we witnessed a strong upward movement in the price for EXS shares. Why?

There are a few plausible reasons that come to mind:

1. Michael Anderson, the Managing Director was delivering a presentation to a wholesale investment forum;

2. Shaw Stockbroking released a report late last week substantially updating its target price for EXS;

3. The continuing fall of popularity of a Cloncurry stablemate, CDU.

Shaw Stockbroking has substantially updated its target price for EXS from 50c to 80c at the end of last week, and coupled with some other factors, it can be expected that this review from Shaws is going to lead to significant amounts of buying in the next couple of weeks in my opinion.

Geoff Muers, the analyst for Shaws has for sometime believed that a deal with Xstrata for an ore agreement has looked imminent but his latest report suggests that he now expects Ivanhoe and Xstrata to slug it out by way of a hostile bidding war, and I tend to agree with that chain of thought. For a long time Xstrata have had the opportunity to strike a deal but they have elected to play a game of wait and see what will transpire. Unfortunately for Xstrata, the waiting game has now expired and other parties including Sin-Tang, have entered the game to try to secure a deal.

Soul Pattinson has jumped onboard, seizing a position in the top 20 shareholder list and looks as though it has been buying more shares in recent days.

Ivanhoe have seized the opportunity to increase its position to just under 23% of the register.
Geoffs valuation is based on the belief that a hostile bid may emerge in the short term from either player, looking to take full control of the asset via either a cash or scrip bid.

Elsewhere in the Cloncurry region it has been en eventful week for copper hopefuls with Cudeco's disapointing resource announcement. At the time of Geoff Meurs writing his report he pointed out that the share price of CDU had fallen by nearly 50% in the last month, whilst the share price of EXS had increased 70%. Since writing that report the figures have become even more dramatic with CDU continuing to fall, and EXS continuing to rise. The figures as of Fridays close are a 86% rise for EXS and a fall of 52% for CDU.

If the amount of critisizm being registered on share market chatroom sites over the weekend against CDU is anything to gauge this coming weeks likely share price direction on, I think that we are about to witness a tsunami of selling there. The exit of shareholders from their register is likely to be linked to a certain extent to an increase in buying for EXS.

CDU's resource of 31Mt @ 0.67% Cu and 0.11g/t Au (plus cobalt credit?)compares to EXS with 61Mt @ 0.85% Cu, 0.25g/t Au. The market capitalization of EXS is still only 57% of CDU. As Geoff Meurs points out in his report, something is not right here, either EXS remains substantially undervalued, or CDU will find a lot more high grade ore. Geoff is of the view and so am I, that the former is more likely.

In the report Geoff goes on to state that Xstrata could pay up to A$1.28ps for EXS and still retain value as he is of the opinion that the Cloncurry project to be worth up to twice as much to Xstrata than EXS under a tolling arrangement (as Xstrata could charge more than A$30mpa above cost-rates) exluding any flow-on benefits from full mill utilisation at Ernest Henry.

He ends his report saying that This indicates there is still plenty of room left on the A$100m value implied by the current market price of EXS (taking off A$50m for White Dam). The only question now is, who will be first to act? There is plenty of room between A$0.44ps and A$1.28ps.

[financial chatter]

from Getagraph.com last night.

The upper target keeps getting higher!

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Monday 30 Aug. 2010]:
(Autocomments)

No changes to price of Exco Resources Limited last trading day. In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 5 out of 10 days, and is up by 9.3% over the past 2 weeks.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 68.7% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.59 and AUD 0.93 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.43 Resistance 1: AUD 0.47
Support 2: AUD 0.40 Resistance 2: AUD 0.48
Support 3: AUD 0.40 Resistance 3: AUD 0.53

[financial chatter]

exs superior to cdu says strachan

Peter Strachan from Stock Analysis has just released a report that states "Unless there has been some serious and systematic error in sampling and assaying, the higher grade portion of (CDU's Rocklands) deposit turns out to be quite small and relatively low grade overall, compared to peers in the area, such as Exco Resources.

[financial chatter]

"3mth price likely between 65c & 98c"

from Getagraph.com:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Wednesday 1 Sep. 2010]:
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited fell by -2.13% last day from AUD 0.47 to AUD 0.46. The price has been going up and down in this period, and there has been a 2.22% for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell last day along with the stock which actually is a good sign as volume should follow the stock. Last day the tradingvolume fell by -389 548 shares and in total there was bought and sold 610 798 shares for approx. AUD 280 967.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 74.9% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.65 and AUD 0.98 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.43 Resistance 1: AUD 0.47
Support 2: AUD 0.40 Resistance 2: AUD 0.47
Support 3: AUD 0.40 Resistance 3: AUD 0.53

[financial chatter]

On HC last night there was a reference to Goldmans being sellers of EXS of late and Iress confirms this.

This is very interesting information.

Given that Goldmans had not been active in the stock before, that suggests to me that SOL are trying to cap the price in a major way.

that would also tie in with the facts released by EXS. SOL had continued to increase their holding up until the time of the last set of presentation notes, and were not far away from having to submit a new Substantial s/h notice.

this suggests to me that SOL are keen to buy more but want to do so at cheaper prices if they can.

Prior large buyer Goldman Sachs have been largest seller during the period 21/8/2010 to 27/8/2010.

Goldman Sachs Sold a net 812t. 1 buy and 116 sells.

Largest net buyer was Shaw with a net 2.419mil. This is understandable given that they recently substantially upgraded their target price from 50c to 80c.

[financial chatter]

We have a very keen buyer today

This morning I initially thought that the share price may just rest until something triggered a move. The trigger might simply be an announcement that SOL have continued to buy.

On the chart that would look to be not too far away.

Additional results could not be too far away either.

I also note that the IVA share price is moving back up. I am inclined to think that $3 might trigger something.

But after looking at this morning’s trades I think that a trigger has been pulled.

SOL look to be buying again.

I think that they have held back as long as they can, but have now reached a point where they will have to declare that they own another 1%, and know that this is going to generate more buying, so they are starting to move ahead of the pack.

It started at 47 and has kept moving up, even clearing out lines so that they can get hold of stock

on another forum, another poster remarked that he thought that this was the start of the next upward leg. He was of the opinion that EXS will be above 60 this time next week.

[financial chatter]

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources hits year-high 11th time in three months

Exco Resources, Australia's 110th largest materials company by market capitalisation, hit a 52-week high of 57.50c during the day. In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high eleven times, pointing to a significant uptrend. The stock rose for a second day on Monday bringing its two-day rise to 6.0c or 11.8%. The stock price surged 4.50c (or 8.6%) to close at 57.0c. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which fell 8.0 points (or 0.2%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 8.7%.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bearish Signals:
The Price to Book of 3.4 higher than average of 2.7 for the Materials sector and 2.5 for the Total Australian Market.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
The price soared 10.7% in the last week and 28.1% in the last month.
This has been propped up by firm volume of 1.9 times average for the week and 1.8 times average for the month.
Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 0.5% for the week and 4.8% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 10.2% for the week and 23.3% for the month.
In the Australian market of 1,325 stocks and 78 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 97 which means it is beating 97% of the market.
A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.
The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.4, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.4 13 times suggesting further upside. The 50-day EMAP has increased to 41.0c. An increase is another bullish indicator.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are rising, another bullish signal.
The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 39.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 28.0c.
In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high eleven times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility
The stock traded between an intraday low of 52.50c and a high of 57.50c. The price range has expanded in the last two days (from 4.0c two days ago to 5.0c today) which, accompanied by a price rise, is a bullish signal. Today its volatility of 9.5% was 6.7 times its average volatility of 1.4%. A price rise on high volatility is a bullish signal.

Volume and turnover period
There were 2,145,072 shares worth $1.2 million traded. The volume was 3.4 times average trading of 629,150 shares. The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 48.5% (or a turnover period of 2 years 22 days).

% Discount to high
The last price is at a discount of 0.9% to the 12-month high of 57.50c.

[financial chatter]

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Monday 20 Sep. 2010]:
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited is up by 7.55% yesterday from AUD 0.53 to AUD 0.57 , and has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see if it manages to continue the gaining strike or take a minor break for the next few days. In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 6 out of 10 days, and is up by 18.75% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 1,87 million more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 2,15 million shares for approx. AUD 1,22 million.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 126.7% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.18 and AUD 1.45 at the end of this period.

Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.48 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 0.47 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.43 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

from Getagraph.com

[financial chatter]

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources strengthens above Exponential Moving Average Price 12-day EMAP outperforms 26-day EMAP
Exco Resources, Australia's 109th largest materials company by market capitalisation, has strengthened above its trend. The MACD indicator (12 day EMA-26 day EMA) is positive, a bullish signal. In the past 26 days this indicator was positive for 23 days, suggesting further upside. The stock price advanced 3.50c (or 6.5%) to close at 57.0c, ending a two-day streak of losses. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which rose 5.3 points (or 0.1%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 6.4%.


RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bearish Signals:
The Price to Book of 3.4 higher than average of 2.7 for the Materials sector and 2.6 for the Total Australian Market.



RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
The price surged 8.6% in the last week and soared 18.8% in the last month.
This has been propped up by robust volume of 2.0 times average for the week and by firm volume 1.6 times average for the month.
Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 0.6% for the week and 4.9% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 7.9% for the week and 13.8% for the month.
In the Australian market of 1,292 stocks and 74 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 97 which means it is beating 97% of the market.
A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.
The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.4, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.4 19 times suggesting further upside. The 50-day EMAP has increased to 43.0c. An increase is another bullish indicator.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are rising, another bullish signal.
The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 41.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 29.0c.
The 200-day MAP has increased to 29.0c.
In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high twelve times, pointing to a significant uptrend.



PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility
The stock traded between an intraday low of 53.50c and two-day high of 58.0c, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs. Today its volatility of 8.4% was 6.3 times its average volatility of 1.3%. A price rise on high volatility is a bullish signal.

Volume and turnover period
There were 815,017 shares worth $458,901 traded. The volume was 1.3 times average trading of 637,349 shares. The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 48.7% (or a turnover period of 2 years 18 days).

% Discount to high
The last price is at a discount of 4.2% to the 12-month high of 59.50c two-days ago on 21 Sep, 2010.

[financial chatter]

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Thursday 23 Sep. 2010]:
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited is up by 5.56% yesterday from AUD 0.54 to AUD 0.57 In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 6 out of 10 days, and is up by 16.33% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 493 504 more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 815 017 shares for approx. AUD 464 560.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 185.9% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.52 and AUD 1.66 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.48 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 0.47 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.43 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

[financial chatter]

StockAnalysis have just lifted their valuation target to 92 cps. So they would have been happy to see some stock become available for sale, so that their clients could avail themselves of the opportunity.

Exco has been a long-time StockAnalysis favourite and they are particularly pleased as to how well the White Dam gold project is progressing. They note how the cash flow is increasing the freedom for EXS to explore the options for the Cloncurry project.

As StockAnalysis state, Exco is now focused on expanding nearby gold mineralisation in South Australia so that it can extend mine life beyond 3 years, while moving towards an investment decision at its Cloncurry copper project. StockAnalysis expects that the White Dam gold project will run until at least early 2014, with potential for a follow-on copper/gold project likely, once the gold rich oxide cap is removed.

When you consider that in addition to the cash flow being generated at White Dam, that there are parties lining up to assist with the development at Cloncurry, any finance concerns that might have existed some time ago, look to have now disappeared.

[financial chatter]

We now know that JP Morgan has been a seller in recent days, and quite possibly were selling some more yesterday afternoon. I did take a few from the sellers, but not as many as I should have.

I suspect it may be a quarterly balance of portfolio performance; they may have needed to book some profits. If so the sell-off is likely to be short-lived but still annoying.

One has to think that the selling was forced upon them by their mandates, because they would be aware that the clock is about 5 minutes to midnight, from the time when a very important decision (about moving to production one way or the other) is going to be made. Those that bought yesterday, might make some very quick profits.

Perhaps that crossing was the last of the parcel available for sale.

Now to see how much damage they have done - will it meet with much resistance to get back over 53c?

[trackers]

Hi FC, this one looks interesting too.. the CCP copper project looks great!! - 55.7Mt @ 0.85% Cu & 0.22 g/t Au with decent upgrades highly likely... Nice.

White Dam is a low resource but at very high margins, is the JORC gold there likely to increase?

300mil shares on issue, market cap @ 150mil looks a bit light

[trackers]

Just listened to BRR... Looks like the rest of this year will be highly exciting.

Total mineable reserver @ CCP expected to be 30million tonnes and this will be confirmed soon with a revised JORC?

Final decision to mine progressing nicely and should be known before EOY

[financial chatter]

at last, someone to talk to on this thread!

Very exciting couple of months ahead - and that could start very soon. The options available for developing CCP make it compelling to be there at present.

[financial chatter]

October 5, 2010


This story makes EXS look very profitable.

Copper Will Trade at $11,000 in a Year, Goldman Says



Copper will trade at $11,000 a metric ton in a year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said as it raised price estimates because of swelling demand.

The forecast implies a 35 percent gain from the metals current price. The bank had predicted on Sept. 17 that copper would trade at $8,050 a ton in 12 months. Goldman today advised investors to buy the December 2011 contract as increasing demand leads to shortages of the metal.

Copper for three-month delivery traded on the London Metal Exchange jumped 23 percent in the third quarter, the most in a year, helped by falling stockpiles and a weaker dollar. LME inventories shrank by 17 percent in the period, and the U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenbacks strength, slid 8.5 percent, the most since 2002.

Supply-demand deficits look set to grow on emerging- market strength and improving demand from developed economies, which we expect to significantly outpace supply growth, drawing down inventories and creating market shortages,analysts including London-based Jeffrey Currie said in the report. We don't believe that the market is fully pricing these shortages and the potential for demand rationing that lies ahead in 2011.

[financial chatter]

Extracted comments from this morning notes from Shaw Stockbroking:

Exco Resources

Value Compelling

Target 80c

Spot valuation is $1.60

EXS recently announced impressive drill results from Salebury ? we anticipate growth in resources ? several rigs active in the area ? we believe that value of the ground is further indicated by the recent results.

We still believe that a deal on the CCP with one of the active players in the area is highly probable and could lead to a substantial re-rating of EXS. Our valuation of 81cps is based on relatively conservative price forecast (Cu @ US$2.61 vs spot @ US$3.50 lb and gold at 10% below spot for the next 2 years US$850 long term).



buying pattern this morning suggests to me that it is extremely similar to what it was like when Shaws were very active in the stock previously


with copper currently sitting at US$3.73 and gold at US$1343, their valuation for EXS is way too conservative.

[financial chatter]

This is all coming together nicely for EXS as they sit down at the boardroom table to determine which offer for the Cloncurry project gives holders the best outcome.

http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFLDE6940UJ20101005

METALS-Copper at two-year high on monetary easing bets
Tue Oct 5, 2010 5:08pm GMT


By Marie-Louise Gumuchian and Melanie Burton

LONDON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Copper hit its highest in more than two years on Tuesday, as Japan unexpectedly lowered interest rates, raising expectations of further easing in other major economies, and the dollar dropped against the euro.

Benchmark copper for three-months delivery on the London Metal Exchange rallied to $8,229 a tonne, the highest since late July 2008, from a close of $8,064 on Monday. The metal used in power and construction closed at $8,175.

"Everything is just exploding on the upside. The new event really overnight was the BOJ saying it was going to ...ease monetary conditions. We've obviously also had the Fed say it's going to embark on new easing measures - who's next?" said analyst Robin Bhar of Credit Agricole. Tin rose to a new all-time high at $26,010 a tonne on persistent supply worries from top exporter Indonesia while zinc, lead and nickel and aluminium touched their highest in five months.

"Further dollar weakness is certainly driving things and that is really a response to (a) strengthening euro," Daniel Brebner, analyst at Deutsche Bank, said. "The market is reacting to further monetary accommodation out of Japan.

"We've seen very strong pricing in the precious metals and there's a bit of a sympathetic move on the base metals complex because they do react to macroeconomic policy."

The Bank of Japan pledged to pump more funds into the struggling economy and keep interest rates virtually at zero, surprising markets and stealing a march on the Federal Reserve in providing a fresh dose of economic stimulus.

The euro jumped against the dollar on reported Asian buying, pushing the greenback to an 8-1/2 month trade-weighted low.

Metals tend to benefit as the dollar falls, because a weaker dollar makes them cheaper for holders of other currencies.

In economic news, the Institute for Supply Management said its U.S. monthly non-manufacuring business activity index hit its lowest level since January.

Investors will also look out for a key jobs report later this week for further clues on the pace of recovery in the world's largest economy.

If the economic data remains lacklustre, it will likely reinforce bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will embark on more monetary easing, which should erode dollar values further and bolster the appeal of metals as a hedge against inflation.


SUPPLY TIGHTNESS
Market balances in copper have been tightening for many months, with stocks in LME warehouses tumbling more than 30 percent since the middle of February. Tuesday's data showed LME stocks down 350 tonnes to 374,100 tonnes.

Zinc closed near five-month highs of $2,313, at $2,312, up 3.7 percent from its $2,230 at the close on Monday. Among other metals, aluminium hit $2,388.75 a tonne, its most expensive since mid-April, before finishing at $2,380 a tonne, up from $2,363.

Battery material lead rallied to $2,340, its highest since April 27, and wound up at $2,311 from $2,277, while stainless steel ingredient nickel ended at $24,700 versus $24,140 after hitting $24,800 a tonne, its highest since early May.

Tin registered a four percent rise to finish at $25,900, as against $24,900 at the close on Monday. Indonesia's refined tin output may fall nearly 6 percent this year as heavy rains hit mining and more easily mined onshore reserves are being depleted, an analyst at the International Tin Research Institute said.

[financial chatter]

All bullish signals tonight!

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources increases 2.0% on high volume rising for a second consecutive day, a two day rise of 6.2%

Exco Resources rose 1.0c (or 2.0%) on high volume to close at 51.0c. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which rose 77.4 points (or 1.7%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 0.3%. The stock rose for a second day on Wednesday bringing its two-day rise to 3.0c or 6.2%.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
The Price to Book of 3.1 lower than average of 3.9 for the Materials sector.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
The price added 3.0% in the last week and increased 2.0% in the last month.
This has been propped up by firm volume of 1.2 times average for the week and 1.4 times average for the month.
Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 0.9% for the week, this represented a relative price increase of 2.1% for the week.
In the Australian market of 1,326 stocks and 73 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 94 which means it is beating 94% of the market.
A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.
The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.2, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.2 44 times suggesting further upside.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal.
The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 46.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 30.0c.
In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high twelve times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility
The stock traded between an intraday low of 50.50c and five-day high of 53.0c, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs.

Moving average price (MAP) [with equal weightage to prices at close]
The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 1.69, a bullish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has exceeded 1.69 33 times suggesting further upside. The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 46.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 30.0c, another bullish indicator.

Exponential Moving Average Price (EMAP) [with higher weightage to recent prices]
The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.2, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.2 44 times suggesting further upside.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
The MACD indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal.

Relativities
Today its percentile rank in the Australian market was 67. In the Australian market of 1,326 stocks and 73 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 94 which means it is outperforming 94% of the market. A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.

[trackers]

Quarterly out and looking pretty good FC. Debt repayed this year is great news. Disc: don't hold, but am watching

[financial chatter]

Exco has been awarded 2010 Queensland Explorer of the Year this evening in Brisbane.

[financial chatter]

http://www.internationalresourcejournal.com/australia/aus_november_10/exco_resources_aus.html

The how-to for joint ventures and company-making projects

It's a fairly auspicious beginning for any miner?kicking off with a portfolio of tenements spun out from mining major BHP Billiton. But more interesting is what Exco Resources Ltd (EXS), an Australian focused, ASX-listed exploration and mining company headquartered in Perth, has done with this great starting suite since the company was founded in 1998.

"That start has been built upon quite substantially throughout the last four years. We've spent a lot of time and money establishing resources and what is now the critical mass for what we see as our flagship copper project," Michael Anderson, Managing Director says.

"Along the way we've added to those tenements and have acquired what we believe to be some of the best ground positions in that part of the world. With the drilling and exploration efforts that we've carried out, we now have the critical mass for a stand-alone copper project."

This project, the Cloncurry Copper project, situated in the famed Cloncurry region of north-west Queensland, continues to be Exco?s prime focus today. Coupled with a later addition, the White Dam Gold Project in South Australia, about 80 kilometres west of Broken Hill in New South Wales, which is now in production and delivering great results, it has been a good year all round for Exco.

Focus and project placement

Anderson says that the rationale for White Dam?s inclusion within the portfolio was to give Exco more portfolio diversity and to create something of a backing for the inevitable cyclicity of base metal markets.

"We got involved in that project in the early 2000s when we got together with the Polymetals Group so that's been a relationship that goes back some six or seven years," Anderson explains.

"They were the owner of the White Dam project at the time, then we joint ventured in with them, then we bought them out and then, in what was quite a complicated chain of events, they joint ventured back in with us. We've never been too far apart along the way."

Exco's timing in entering into this project clearly couldn?t have been better. When the project was opened on Thursday, June 10, 2010, it was the State's second significant gold mine and fourth gold producing mine. There have been peak Australian dollar gold prices over the last few years, resulting in some very healthy margins on good production levels over the first few months for the project. In fact, as of September 20, 2010, production levels measured 30 per cent above target. Anderson says that the transition from explorer to producer was a major milestone for Exco and bodes well as the company looks to do the same with the copper project. This clear and swift progress stems from the great partnership between owners Exco (75 percent) and Polymetals (25 percent) and the ground work done.

"Polymetals did a fantastic job with the construction and commissioning program so getting to first gold in April was all but a couple of weeks from our targeted timeline. Since then production has well and truly exceeded expectations not only in terms of the rate at which we?re producing gold," Anderson says.
"We had a nominal target of about 1,000 ounces per week, 50,000 ounces per annum, and we're producing more like 1,300 to 1,400 ounces per week?more like 65,000 ounces per annum."

Those initial targets, complimented by the Australian dollar gold price hovering around A$1,300 with the project modelled on more like A$1,100, has lifted those first few months considerably in terms of production and margin.

"The operation is really stabilizing nicely and that leaves us with one clear challenge - to extend the mine life and see if we can't enjoy protractive cashflows from White Dam."

Of course, Exco also differentiates between White Dam and its role as a company starting project, and Cloncurry as a potentially company-making project.

Approaching Cloncurry

Outlining what it is about the copper project that most attracts Exco today, Anderson says that it shapes to be two or three times larger than White Dam both in size and profitability for the company.

"White Dam will contribute to us getting that project into production and within that its importance cannot be underestimated, but Cloncurry is where our primary focus lies," he says.

"Most of the last year has been focused on advancing the DFS (Definitive Feasibility Study) and the approvals process for that."

The copper project's DFS and EIS (Environmental Impact Study) both look set for completion by the year close, in the first quarter of 2011 at the latest. Anderson says that the key for Exco now is to look at its options for project development - to build a standalone operation or to team up with neighbours Xstrata who own the Ernest Henry operation just eight kilometres east.

"We will establish a mine one way or the other, the question is do we build our own new processing facilities or do we make use of Xstrata's existing infrastructure in that regard," he says.

"Having progressed the DFS and the EIS through to the point of completion, that's probably the biggest decision that sits in front of the company and I sense that the market is now waiting for us to clarify that go-forward strategy."

Exco certainly offers a strong track record in joint venture success. Anderson attributes the success to both parties at White Dam and notes Exco's largest shareholder, Ivanhoe Australia (23 per cent), of Robert Friedland?s Ivanhoe Mines Group.
"That relationship [with Ivanhoe Australia] is now into its fourth year and they're also active in our Cloncurry region, so there is certainly potential for ongoing collaboration there," he says.

"Our most recent moves on the share register have seen a Singaporean company called Sin-Tang Development [Pte Ltd] come into the mix and they, together with their Chinese partners, are keen to see if there are ways for us to collaborate on our copper developments."

It looks like whether Exco, bolstered by strong shareholders, goes it alone or teams up for another successful partnership, whatever decision the company makes is likely to prove fruitful.

The Exco melting pot and milestones

Exco's most important announcement going forward looks likely to be its upcoming choice on a go-forward strategy for the Cloncurry Copper project and whether the company will make a mutually acceptable agreement with Xstrata, work with Ivanhoe, or build on the relationship with Sin Tang and their Chinese partners.

"It's a melting pot bubbling away at the moment and we're very much focused on finding that definitive way forward and getting that decision out to the market. There is a sense of expectation that it?s coming, but that is matched by our determination to provide that clarity," Anderson says.

"What we've given ourselves is a tremendous platform here. We?ve had a good year and getting White Dam into production was a fantastic milestone for the company, but that is just the start."

Shaped to enjoy some very healthy cashflows from White Dam on top of what is already a strong financial position, this platform Anderson speaks of is the ideal footing to unlock the value of the copper project. Upon doing so, Anderson says, Exco may be re-rated further and as a result offer new investor attractions.

"When we get to that point we?ll hopefully be re-rated into a mid-tier mining company and again providing ourselves with the opportunity for further growth," Anderson says.

"That's not only within the portfolio and organic opportunities with plenty of exploration upside, but also with our heads up looking for opportunities in a corporate or M&A sense."

The best is clearly yet to come and Exco is perfectly placed to ensure it all goes smoothly. By giving itself every opportunity to maximise that value proposition today, the company is taking those measured steps to make its Cloncurry copper project a production project tomorrow.

[financial chatter]

http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=exs&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis

Another buy call.

Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.

[financial chatter]

from Getagraph.com:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Tuesday 9 Nov. 2010]:
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited is up by 5.17% yesterday from AUD 0.58 to AUD 0.61, and has now gained 6 days in a row. It is not often stocks manage to gain so many days in a row, and a day or two with fall should be expected. In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 17.31% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 71 883 more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 974 892 shares for approx. AUD 594 684.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 22.9% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.64 and AUD 0.79 at the end of this period.

Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.57 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 0.54 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.47 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

[financial chatter]

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources strengthens above 50 day Exponential Moving Average Price

Exco Resources has strengthened above its trend. The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.4, a bullish indicator.

In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.4 six times suggesting further upside. The 50-day EMAP has increased to 46.0c. An increase is another bullish indicator. The stock advanced for a fifth consecutive day on Tuesday, its longest such streak since 23 Aug, 2010. The stock price climbed 3.0c (or 5.2%) to close at 61.0c. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which fell 34.5 points (or 0.7%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 5.9%.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Bearish Signals:
The Price to Book of 3.7 higher than average of 2.8 for the Total Australian Market and 2.8 for the Total Australian Market.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bullish Signals:- The price soared 17.3% in the last week.
This has been propped up by firm volume of 1.4 times average for the week.
Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 1.0% for the week and 1.7% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 16.3% for the week and 19.1% for the month.
In the Australian market of 1,344 stocks and 68 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 95 which means it is beating 95% of the market.
A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.
The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.4, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.4 six times suggesting further upside. The 50-day EMAP has increased to 46.0c. An increase is another bullish indicator.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are rising, another bullish signal.
The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 52.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 34.0c.
The 200-day MAP has increased to 34.0c.
In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high fourteen times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

Volatility
The stock traded between an intraday low of 58.50c and a high of 62.50c, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs. Today its volatility of 6.8% was 4.1 times its average volatility of 1.7%. A price rise on high volatility is a bullish signal.

Volume and turnover period
There were 974,892 shares worth $587,101 traded. The volume was 1.5 times average trading of 652,940 shares. The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 49.98% (or a turnover period of 2 years ).

% Discount to high
The last price is at a discount of 2.4% to the 12-month high of 62.50c.

Volume weighted price (VWP)
The price is at a premium of 13.1% to the 1-month volume weighted average price of 54.0c. Given that this premium has been under 13.1% ninety-four times and over 13.1% twenty-seven times in the last year, the downside:upside probability is estimated at 94:27 or 3.5:1.

Beta is 3.4.

[financial chatter]

From Getagraph.com:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Thursday 11 Nov. 2010]:
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited is up by 3.33% yesterday from AUD 0.60 to AUD 0.62 In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 16.98% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell last day by -55 126 shares and in total there was bought and sold 393 037 shares for approx. AUD 243 683. You should note that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes for the next couple of days.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited lays in the upper part of a wide and strong rising trend on short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trendline at AUD 0.64 will in first place indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 21.6% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.63 and AUD 0.78 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.57 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 0.54 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.47 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

[financial chatter]

http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=exs&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis

Price and moving averages
Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands
EXS.AX has closed below upper band by 2.7%. Bollinger Bands are 64% wider than normal. The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to EXS.AX's normal range. The bands have been in this wide range for 1 bars. This is a sign that the current trend might continue.

[financial chatter]

Exco Resources hits year-high 15th time in three months

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

[financial chatter]

From Shaws research this morning:
EXCO RESOURCES (EXS) @ $0.55 ST: Buy

* Recent drilling results point to significant growth potential in resources at Cloncurry.
* Eight Mile Creek showing potential for a moderate tonnage IOCG deposit.
* Decision on development progress regarding partnership arrangements imminent.
* Recommendation remains BUY, price target A$0.80ps.

EXS continue to announce encouraging drilling results at the CCP and we anticipate significant growth of the existing resource of 61Mt to 100Mt. This would place the resource well into the regionally significant category, and comparable to IVA's resources such as Mt Dore, however with better grade.

MD, Michael Anderson yesterday at the AGM remarked that a decision on development of Cloncurry is imminent. We have previously said the logic for an off-take deal with the Ernest Henry mine is compelling for both parties, however we remain uncertain of Xstrata's willingness to deal, and believe it may take a competitive offer from either IVA or a proposal from SinTang to provide a catalyst for the project/stock to be put in play. Either way, when you consider out spot valuation of A$1.60 ps and the A$1.3b market capitalization of IVA, there is plenty of leverage and potential synergy available for IVA shareholders. We believe that the patience shown by EXS shareholders will be rewarded shortly.

[financial chatter]

Update from Fox Davies

BUY
Price: A$0.59
Target Price: A$0.85

Market Cap (M): A$204.4
EV (M): A$194.4

Event
Exco has announced that it has today made the last repayment in respect of the gold loan which was provided by Barclays Capital PLC to finance Exco?s share of the development cost of the White Dam Gold Production Joint Venture in South Australia.

Comment
Repayment has been completed thirteen months after project commencement and only seven months after first production. A combination of better than expected production rates and higher gold prices has allowed the loan to be paid off two months before the first of three scheduled part-delivery dates.

This is excellent news for EXCO as it is now essentially unencumbered and can look forward to benefitting from the high gold prices now pertaining. Further, the JV partners are currently completing an exploration and resource development programme for the nearby Vertigo deposit and White Dam North, White Dam South and Ambush prospects with the objective of extending the life of the mine and increasing life of mine production. In addition to these resources, extensions to the current pit are also being investigated.

Recommendation
We retain the Buy recommendation with an unchanged target price of A$0.85/share.



http://www.uploadlibrary.com/foxdavies/ExcoFlashnote23Nov2010.pdf

[financial chatter]

Minesite Article

News
December 02, 2010

Exco Resources Finds Favour With The Banks And The Chinese, But The Views Of Near-Neighbour Xstrata Remain A Mystery
By Alastair Ford



It’s no wonder Exco’s Michael Anderson and Geoff Laing always go out for dinner with their bankers at Barclays Capital whenever they come through London – the combination of Barclays finance and Exco’s White Dam gold project has proved so successful that you almost have to pinch yourself when you read the numbers. For starters, there’s the cash that’s now coming in. Exco currently has about A$11.5 million in the bank. But according to Michael Anderson, that sum should have risen to around A$60 million by this time next year.
That’s not a bad result for a small-scale gold project that’s not even Exco’s main asset. More to the point, though, as far as the bankers are concerned, all the project debt has now been paid off – and in double quick time. The US$16 million White Dam financing was put together back in the early part of 2009, when the world was an even more miserable place to be in economically than it is now, but at a time too when the gold price was strong. So it made sense for Barclays to be looking at gold deals, however small. Still it’s not every day that you put up financing for a gold mine that ends up getting paid off in full within thirteen months, just seven months after first production, and before the first mandatory payment was even due.

Certainly such a result is worth a celebratory dinner, or two. “From start to finish, it’s hard to see how White Dam could have gone any better for us”, says Michael Anderson. At the last official production update, which was released back in September, the company stated that production rates were running 30 per cent ahead of target, while operating costs of less than A$600 per ounce and an average sale price of over A$1,380 per ounce meant that margins were “very healthy”. At that stage the company reckoned it was on track to repay the Barclays loan by the first quarter of next year.

At some stage Exco will stop being able to surprise shareholders with good news, but the recent strong run of news may have a little way to go yet. The success of White Dam has all sorts of implications for the longer term. One is that if and when Exco needs to borrow money again, it’ll have a decent track record. “It’s a fantastic thing to have on Exco’s CV, for the next time we go in front of a credit committee”, says Michael Anderson. For the more immediate term, though, with White Dam running ahead of expectations, and the company now debt free, the focus can once again shift back to Exco’s main project, the Cloncurry copper project in Queensland.

Exactly how development will proceed at Cloncurry is currently the subject of delicate negotiation, and has been for some time. And it’s because the future of Cloncurry is still very much in the balance that getting White Dam right was so important. With a cash pile that’s set to increase in value almost by a factor of five over the next 12 months, there’s no likelihood of Exco being boxed into a corner by a bigger, nastier potential partner. Funding squeeze? – not with White Dam throwing off cash merrily, the company’s bankers well and truly satisfied over the port and cheese and the end of a tasty meal, and the gold price heading back towards US$1,400.

Still, if Exco’s short-to-medium term position is strengthened by the White Dam production, it does still have to get a deal done at Cloncurry. This, says Michael Anderson, is “imminent”. Cloncurry is a good-looking property in its own right, given that it boasts a resource of 55.7 million tonnes of ore containing 472,000 tonnes of copper and 394,000 ounces of gold. What makes it even more of an intriguing proposition, though, is its proximity to the famous Ernest Henry mine, which is operated by Xstrata. Xstrata’s processing facilities at Ernest Henry look tailor-made to treat the Cloncurry ore, and are likely to be significantly under-utilised now that the Ernest Henry open pit is virtually mined out.

Xstrata, though, is being rather coy about its position on whether or not it’s interested in the Cloncurry ore, at least in public. But it had better make up its mind one way or the other fairly soon, because Exco has been cracking on with pit design and environmental work, and is unlikely to hold off the design and costing of a plant at Cloncurry much longer. Geoff Laing speaks abstractly of the phenomenal growth that he’s witnessed on recent trips to China. Chinese growth is, of course, part of the rationale for buying into a copper story, but Geoff’s not been to China merely to form a view on the global economic outlook. As has happened with so many other Australian companies, a Chinese partner may very well come in and make the running at Cloncurry.

“We expect a little bit of competitive tension to emerge”, says Michael. “But someone has got to make the first move”. The hope among investors is that it’ll be Xstrata. But if it isn’t, Exco is already gearing up with alternative development plans. Because make no mistake, the Chinese interest is very real. “The interest is absolutely there”, says Michael. “They want to come and work on our pipeline. They want to come in, on the register, and on a project basis.” With the copper price riding so high, now is the time.

[financial chatter]

http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=exs&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis

Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.


http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Short term rating 5 out of 5

Exco Resources strengthens above 50-day Exponential Moving Average Price

Exco Resources has strengthened above its trend. The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.1, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.1 22 times suggesting further upside. The 50-day EMAP has increased to 53.85c. An increase is another bullish indicator. The stock price jumped 4.0c (or 7.3%) to close at 59.0c. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which rose 36.6 points (or 0.8%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 6.5%


From Getagraph.com:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Tuesday 7 Dec. 2010]:
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited is up by 7.27% yesterday from AUD 0.55 to AUD 0.59 The price has been going up and down in this period, and there has been a 3.51% for the last 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 0,74 million more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 1,41 million shares for approx. AUD 834 006.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 12.3% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.60 and AUD 0.72 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.57 Resistance 1: AUD 0.60
Support 2: AUD 0.54 Resistance 2: AUD 0.61
Support 3: AUD 0.51 Resistance 3: AUD 0.62

[financial chatter]

Resistance point smashed now.


From Getagraph.com
SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Friday 11 Feb. 2011]:

Exco Resources Limited fell by -3.13% last day from AUD 0.64 to AUD 0.62. . In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 6 out of 10 days, and is up by 14.81% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell last day along with the stock which actually is a good sign as volume should follow the stock. Last day the tradingvolume fell by -40 560 shares and in total there was bought and sold 403 487 shares for approx. AUD 250 162.


3 MONTH TREND

Exco Resources Limited has broken the wide and horizontal trend up. Breaks like this is often followed by swift and strong movements, and any correction down to the breakline at approx. AUD 0.60 is considered to be a "second chance" to hit a potential runner. It is, however, important that volume does follow the price as false breaks may appear and it may move back into the horizontal trend. Based on the rectangle-formation theory the stock is predicted to reach AUD 0.70 sometime during the next 3 months.


Support/Resistance |s

Support 1: AUD 0.61 Resistance 1: AUD 0.63

Support 2: AUD 0.59 Resistance 2: AUD 0.64

Support 3: AUD 0.54 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

[soulman]

A takeover offer from SOL. A bit of insider trading there a few days before the offer. EXS asset are mostly cash, some tenement and a producing gold asset.

This T/O are more likely to do with the Great Australia Royalty whereas EXS is to received up to $25 mil of royalties from a wholly own SOL subsidiary. By taking them out, then they save on the royalties. I might buy some next week because surely a hold out for a higher offer makes sense.