View Full Version : Coal Junior Exploration Companies
nelehdine
04-05-2005, 03:06 PM
Hi SEC,
Just jumped back into EXL at 654 .. 4c above where I sold out ... market sell-off can be kind if you make an earlier mistake !!!
nelehdine
04-05-2005, 04:05 PM
... should have waited another 60mins ... 644 now !!! what a stinker of a day !!!
ASXIOU
04-05-2005, 04:43 PM
GCl getting smacked aswell. excellent buying at these prices!IMO :)
With you completely Nel, I bought more at 635 a few minutes ago.
SEC
nelehdine
05-05-2005, 05:18 PM
Dear oh dear SEC ... what a mess ... the stock is being absolutely trashed while the other coallies are holding steady.
Traded down to $6 ... down almost 10% since I bgt only 24hrs ago. Should have kept my hands in my pockets for a little longer !!
nelehdine
17-05-2005, 04:53 PM
After bouncing to 670 recently the bears are out giving EXL a good old fashioned mauling today and the stock is now well below $6 ... quite a fall from grace and $8.50 a few weeks ago !!
Added to my recent 654 purchase today with another addition at 589 ...
The other coal stocks are pretty solid, hoping EXL aren't have production problems at one of their mines which isn't in the market yet. Still at 589 the upside potential looks large compared to the risk of any more dramatic falls !!??
nelehdine
17-05-2005, 05:42 PM
577 ..... &*%#
Halebop
17-05-2005, 06:03 PM
Been pretty ugly for coal miners since coming off their March(ish) highs...
EXL -33%
GCL -29%
MCC -23%
CEY -12%
I still favour the value in GCL but not willing to touch anyone while they are locked in these sorts of downtrends. Quite happy to hand the first 10% of any turnaround to the guy missing 3 fingers!
ASXIOU
18-05-2005, 01:26 PM
upbeat AGM from GCL today. Announcement of increase in mineable reserves and intention to pay 10c div from June 30 results. Has certainly got the SP moving a bit.
nelehdine
19-05-2005, 06:28 PM
EXL +6% ... closed at 640 ... short term bottom now in place from earlier this week ??
Disc: Doubled up on EXL at 589 on Monday
quote:Originally posted by Halebop
Been pretty ugly for coal miners since coming off their March(ish) highs...
EXL -33%
GCL -29%
MCC -23%
CEY -12%
I still favour the value in GCL but not willing to touch anyone while they are locked in these sorts of downtrends. Quite happy to hand the first 10% of any turnaround to the guy missing 3 fingers!
Pleased to say they have all recovered to 5 - 15% off all-time highs.
quote:
In the two months since Good News started this thread, GCL has gone up 45%, EXL 36%, MCC 33% and CEY 16%. Only AUO has disappointed, down 19%.
And to put things in perspective, in just under a year, AUO +83%, CEY +57%, EXL +186%, GCL +162%, MCC +277%, an average 153% return! These are also LS's five stock picks for the 2005 ASX comp and he is currently leading!
For what it's worth, I don't think met coal prices will increase much in 2006 (if at all), but analyst forecasts have consistently been increasing coal price forecasts for 07, 08 and 09.
SEC (CEY EXL MCC)
Halebop
16-06-2005, 09:04 PM
Agreed its looking a bit stronger now SEC. My little pet favourite GCL is perhaps presently a bit dodgy on the technicals. Short of some interesting news when they report for their newly minted June financial year I wouldn't be surprised if they tested $2.70 again before things got better.
Mind boggles though. Despite the inherent risks of commodity and exchange rates they look very cheap.
Disc: Still not back in.
Halebop I thought GCL looked OK on technicals with support at 320 - depends on how you view the chart I suppose. But I'm already drowning in coal so don't want to buy any more. In fact I may sell some of what I bought in the past 3 months if they surge further (one can have too much coal in a longer-term portfolio:D).
SEC
Took some EXLent money off the table today but only sold the parcel I bought for 635 a few weeks ago. The portfolio looks a bit more balanced now.
SEC
homermcc
20-06-2005, 10:59 PM
Coal Juniors???,
What about a "breast fed baby" currently on the move (check out todays activity) - ECU - looking for a partner???? - there are plenty within arms reach and some big names amongst them (check their location/activities via their website). Recently NZ coal mine was aquired with quality reserves[}:)]
Qld government are publically behind local coal juniors promising improved infrastructure/rationalisation - a continued priority in many areas including Mackay region where ECU have a presence. Hope others can see ECU, although speculative in nature, progressing from "Babe-in-arms" to the "junior" ranks:D the sooner the better[8D]
Disc Hold some ECU/GCL
homermcc
21-06-2005, 04:27 PM
Bit more light on ECU & partner
http://asx.com.au//asxpdf/20050621/pdf/3r8n5w1nswrck.pdf
I haven't seen such frenzied buying of coal stocks for months. As a patient holder it's good to see:D. CEY, EXL and MCC all about 5% below their all time highs, will be interesting to see if they can break them in the short term. GCL still has a bit to go and might have some more upside in the next few days than the others.
SEC (CEY EXL MCC)
nelehdine
22-07-2005, 02:50 PM
EXL ... 1 announcement = yesterdays gains all gone !!!
The market giveth and the market taketh away:(
Their 06 prediction wasn't as good as what the analysts were predicting. A bit conservative I think, just like they were for their 05 prediction.
SEC
Hi Sec.
Would be interested to hear you view on the CEY performance this year.
Appears to be lagging when compared to the other coalers.
Regards,
Ynot.
Tinker
24-07-2005, 11:44 AM
Hi Sec,
I haven't forgotten the $6 CEY promise. Been busy but from recollection CEY has Tahmoor plus some contract price revisions from a low base still to come.
Would feel a little uncomfortable invoicing you for the shortfall at Christmas what with all your other financial committments around that time:D.
Been following that quality stock AUO for interest. Some wide swings on low turnover whilst the two parties rack up lawyer bills.
Cheers
Tinker
Hi Guys, I don't think CEY's 05 profit will change much from their guidance a few months ago. The reason CEY has been lagging behind is due to most of their earnings coming from fixed price domestic price contracts. Any upside hinges on Tahmoor's performance. CEY management recently commented that they've sorted out the problems with Tahmoor's longwall equipment so hopefully it should be good. If it is good, $6 should be a doddle and I'll have no unexpect bills by Xmas:D
SEC
Tinker
24-07-2005, 02:55 PM
Thanks for that SEC.
I'll book the holiday now.
cheers
green
27-07-2005, 01:30 PM
Any one with thoughts to share on the QTR report for GCL?
Halebop
27-07-2005, 01:56 PM
Rising costs are unwelcome but mostly due to increased government royalties so a bit difficult to avoid.
Volumes were static but pretty much to expectations.
I'm not totally convinced by their hedging strategy buts its probably a good risk/reward compromise.
Basically nothing new in the quarterly result nor the UBS presentation. Market might have got a bit bored with them - GCL were marked down quite strongly this morning.
I'm waiting for more emphatic technicals to time my re-entry. I think GCL are still very cheap. Have a hunch they could slip below $3.00 in the short to medium term. They've been in a trading in a tightening range for some time at least.
ASXIOU
27-07-2005, 02:14 PM
second that Halebop. GCL excellent buying at or below $3 IMO. What they really need is some more serious mine-life extensions which is what IMO is holding the shareprice back. Notice decent money going into exploration over next year and drilling programs underway in August so this may become reality in which case $5 is very possible.
Shareprice also being hit due to fact that our friends at greenpeace have decided to block the newcastle port with their 'rainbow warrior' and corresponding anti-coal propaganda.
please do your own research before deciding whether to buy,sell or hold stocks.
It's been a bit boring at the coal face of late - each time CEY EXL and MCC approach their March highs they get shot down. But today CEY broke a stiff 530 resistance and the others might follow in setting new highs. That's good news since the chances of CEY hitting 600 by Xmas now look good (was there ever any doubt [8D]) and I won't be singing for my supper that night eh Tinker ;)
SEC
PS with Austral now effectively valued at $1.47 I bet those who sold to Glencore are itching for their shares back!
A big year ahead for CEY. Strong buying today.
Tinker
22-08-2005, 08:39 PM
Yes things are looking good SEC. I was thinking about your crystal ball skills just the other day.
A fine wine and much cheer I predict for you and yours this Xmas eve!
Cheers
Tinker
quote:Originally posted by SEC
It's been a bit boring at the coal face of late - each time CEY EXL and MCC approach their March highs they get shot down. But today CEY broke a stiff 530 resistance and the others might follow in setting new highs.
Nope, they've all retreated again [B)] and look rather range bound for the moment.
Is coal still the place to be? Jim Cramer on CNBC thinks it is as long as the sulphur content is right and they don't have contracts that are locked in for long periods. Why has MCC taken it on the chin just recently?
GSJBW have published a list of potential takeover targets in the resource sector. MCC is amongst them.
quote:Originally posted by Skol
Is coal still the place to be? Jim Cramer on CNBC thinks it is as long as the sulphur content is right and they don't have contracts that are locked in for long periods. Why has MCC taken it on the chin just recently?
The coalies stood up remarkably well given the overall drubbing today. Skol, I suspect MCC has been downrated since it is hamstrung by the coal loading constraints at Dalrymple Bay for at least the next FY. However infrastructure constraints mean a tighter coal supply and higher coal prices so it's not all bad.
SEC
Looks like an insto or hedge fund is bailing out of MCC faster than the market can absorb. The same thing happened with EXL a few months ago, there became a clear market imbalance wrt its peers and the drop proved to be temporary. Looks to be the same imbalance now with MCC, now on a forward PE of 6, considerably lower than its peers.
SEC
Not for long, MCC back up again. Bit of a worry for a while there. Check out the volume
Halebop
07-09-2005, 06:11 PM
Great few days for GCL LongStrangle! Alas I have not got back on board.
hi ,excellent report from gcl,10c divy paid 30/9/05,share buyback of up to 10% of shares,all good but the key is the projected earnings ,q3/05 of some 14mill ebit,or $56 mill ebit pa.cheers pago.
CEY Trading Halt.
Tahmoor is about to deliver!!
70% increase in coking coal reserves.
Farouk
08-09-2005, 02:37 PM
Austral Coal Limited (AUO) shares jumped 15% within minutes of opening this morning after the company reported a 70% increase in total ROM Reserves to 80.3 million tones for its Tahmoor North and Bargo lease areas.
Centennial Coal Limited (CEY), who recently took operational control of Austral, explained that the upgrade followed a review of the operations at the mine.
IMC Consultants was commissioned to review the potential mining layouts over the combined lease areas, and to prepare a JORC2004 Statement of Coal Reserves to reflect the estimated tonnage within the revised layout.
Proved reserves have subsequently been revised to 50.5 million tonnes and probable reserves upgraded to 29.8 million tonnes.
Of these, 24.6 million tonnes proved reserves were reported at Tahmoor North, and 25.9 million tonnes at Bargo East.
Probable reserves included 2.9 million tonnes at Tahmoor, 4.2 million tonnes at Bargo East and 22.7 million tonnes at Bargo West.
The company claims these resources are sufficient to support mining operations at Tahmoor for in excess of 20 years.
At 1015 AEST, Austral shares were up 20c at $1.60.
Tinker
08-09-2005, 07:30 PM
Yes well .. mmmm now who was it that persuaded me to trade my valuable AUO for CEY;)?
Perhaps I spoke too soon earlier. All previous compliments here by withdrawn
Cheers
Tinker
PS only joking
Tinker
10-09-2005, 09:45 AM
Hi LS,
No not you, you're off the hook. He knows who he is, and hopefully is saving for Christmas;). (Come on out of the bushes and fight like a man mister!)
As for GCL I haven't studied in depth but it certainly has the most attractive projections in the future of the coalies. The $120m odd capital raising by CEY, GCLs $320m capitalisation and CEYs recent success with AUO wouldn't seem to make a takeover bid out of the question. A good security to hold IMHO. (nearly as good as AUO was:D) Good luck.
Cheers
Tinker
mark100
10-09-2005, 04:37 PM
Bit of speculation that cey is looking at gcl. I might sell my gcl to them for $6.
Centennial to fatten its wallet
By Jamie Freed
September 9, 2005
Centennial Coal is taking advantage of the strong coal market and raising up to $130 million to fund "internal and external expansion opportunities".
The NSW coal producer also increased the reserves at its newly acquired Tahmoor coking coal mine by 70 per cent to 80.3 million tonnes yesterday.
The managing director, Bob Cameron, said Centennial would explore several options for the funds.
"We wanted more flexibility with our balance sheet," he said.
The share placement represents 7.4 per cent of Centennial's issued capital.
The majority of the raising - $100 million - will be new shares offered to institutional investors.
A share purchase plan open to existing shareholders will raise the remaining $30 million.
Due to changing NSW legislation, Centennial might be able to fast-track Anvil Hill, an open-cut thermal coal mine it is developing in the upper Hunter Valley. The company expects production to begin in 2008 but Mr Cameron said it would like to speed up the development in light of strong demand for the coal.
UBS analyst Glyn Law****questioned the need for a capital raising. He forecast Centennial's debt to equity ratio would fall to 34 per cent from 42 per cent next year without the additional funds and said raising money was "opportunistic" in light of a strong coal market.
"In my estimate, the company is not stretched and doesn't need the money," he said.
Centennial will consider using the funds for acquisitions.
There have been market whispers this week that an unnamed company was preparing to bid for NSW producer Gloucester Coal.
Mr Law****said it would be an attractive target for Centennial, particularly because Gloucester was trading on a lower price to earnings ratio than other coal producers. It has a market value of $328 million.
Asked about Gloucester, Mr Cameron said: "We haven't earmarked [the $130 million] for any particular opportunity."
Some observers believe Centennial is unlikely to make an acquisition in the near term because it is concentrating on integrating the Tahmoor mine, formerly owned by Austral Coal. Its scrip offer for Austral remains open because Swiss commodities trader Glencore holds a 13.7 per cent stake that has blocked Centennial from compulsory acquisition.
Glencore and Centennial have had an continuing legal fight after the Takeovers Panel declared Glencore had not adequately disclosed its interest in Austral.
Glencore contested that decision, along with the constitutionality of the panel, in a Federal Court hearing but no judgement has been made.
Halebop
16-09-2005, 03:30 PM
Well what the?! GCL zoomed off to $4.00 only to give it all back again.
Still trading above it's shallow but confirmed uptrend line commenced in May but anything below $3.40 will begin to look like testing times.
swirlyworld
16-09-2005, 08:35 PM
quote:Originally posted by Halebop
Well what the?! GCL zoomed off to $4.00 only to give it all back again.
Still trading above it's shallow but confirmed uptrend line commenced in May but anything below $3.40 will begin to look like testing times.
Maybe a good buying oppo before it zooms back up again, and yes my money is where my mouth is. i have enjoyed the ride up since buying at $2 last year and grapped some more today at $3.51, which i reckon was good buying. GCL seems to have 20% dips from time to time before continuing to move ahead.
Can anyone give me a clue as to why MCC has been marked back so much lately. No news, lots of volume.
I'm not happy Tinker. CEY didn't have to raise that that money and the market was justifiably unimpressed. I don't like companies undertaking capital raisings without good reason and I may consider selling my CEY holding into any strength.
SEC
yes sec, has certianly slowed it down.
don't you think there's any chance of a good reason behind the capital raising though?
there has been talk of them looking at another coal co purchase.
quote:Originally posted by Long Strangle
SEC, you crack me up. The market is not justifiably unimpressed... the share price has not moved in any meaningful way. In my opinion the market has reacted very positively to the capital raising. Good reason... well... GCL is more than a good reason, it's a fantastic reason?
LS, what are you smoking? The announced increase in Tahmoor's reserves should have seen CEY currently trading at around 550. And if CEY really was eyeing up GCL, why did GCL's price slump 15% after CEY's capital raising?
SEC
PS I note the analysts have slashed GCL's expected eps for 05/06 recently, down from around 90cps to 67.5cps. So GCL's discount to its peers is getting smaller.
Halebop
26-09-2005, 11:30 PM
Hey SEC, I haven't been following GCL closely of late. Which firm(s) cut GCL to 67.5?
I follow Thomson First Call Global - the median value of the range of broker estimates. It shows median estimate for GCL of 67.5cps for 05/06 and 69.7cps for 06/07 (down from 98cps). I know ABN Amro and Wilson HTM cover GCL so both probably cut their eps estimates.
There's no disguising the fact that the coalies haven't really gone anywhere for the past six months and will probably continue to be rangebound until the 06 contract negotiations start.
SEC
Found this - ABN have reduced their eps estimates for GCL.
ABN Downgrades Gloucester Coal
September 08 2005 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)
ABN Amro Morgans has cut its rating on Gloucester Coal (GCL) to Hold from Buy as recent strength in the share price has seen it reach the broker’s target.
The broker notes the company’s profit result of $8.4m was below its forecast due to higher corporate costs, depreciation and interest charges, but encouraging a dividend has been declared.
Management have announced their intention to buyback up to 10% of the shares on-market, a move the broker estimates could be earnings accretive by about 5c.
Given the company has changed its balance date the broker has adjusted its earnings forecasts, resulting in lower forecasts in FY06 and FY07 to reflect higher costs and lower coal prices.
The broker’s valuation and target price have increased to $3.95 from $3.92.
The last closing price for GCL was $4.00.
quote:Originally posted by Long Strangle
In my opinion investors would be better served by selling CEY and purchasing GCL. Your thoughts would be appreciated SEC.
If there was any coal stock to sell it would be CEY. But I would not be buying GCL (or any coal stock at the moment) until 06 contract negotiations are clearer. All coal stocks I monitor have had their eps estimates over the next two years reduced since reporting (due to mining cost increases) but GCL was reduced the most. As always, diversification is the key - zinc, iron ore, oil/gas or engineering/construction.
SEC
Holy sh!t 113 bids at $6.42 for MCC. Can only mean one thing - the Rivkin tick of approval (for what it's worth).
Big volumes just recently in MCC. JBW's picked it as a takeover target about a month ago.
newbie
27-09-2005, 10:48 PM
Anybody know of undeveloped coal properties for sale? Heard of Middlemount up for sale from Ribfield but do not know the price. What is for sale in Bowen or Surat?
ASXIOU
28-10-2005, 06:08 PM
GCL getting smashed over last week or so. Must admit I sold most of mine at about $3.50 a couple of weeks back but had held since less then $1 so all in all a very rewarding experience. Seems forecasts are pointing to softer demand and hence price weakening in the thermal coal market. Similar sp dip occured in last market weakness in april then rebounded strongly so could be one to watch for another entry?
Halebop
28-10-2005, 06:20 PM
Been a nasty few days for them. That chart is frightening. I'm looking for an entry point but there isn't an obvious support point. $2.80ish could be it otherwise you have to go back down to $2.00 to see anything you can put a line through.
hi ,i cant see the coal price staying bearish with china closing down so many of its coal mines,china will import more,cheers pago.
mark100
28-10-2005, 07:09 PM
I sold my last half of gcl after the quarterly. I think the main issue affecting them is higher production costs and potentially lower prices, especially for thermal coal.
For the quarter they produced 170k tonnes of coking and 365k tonnes of thermal. Cash costs were in the mid $40's / tonne, above expectations. The price received for thermal was just over $50/t and for coking it was $130.
The market is expecting the price of thermal to possibly fall into the mid $40's so gcl would be making nothing from their thermal coal. Obviously the margin on coking is still very good so they will still make a healthly profit but on my back of the envelope numbers the loss of thermal earnings may cut expected profit by around 20%.
Still cheap but sentiment has turned for the moment and costs will rise in time as they have to go underground.
Mark
winner69
28-10-2005, 09:17 PM
quote:Originally posted by Halebop
Been a nasty few days for them. That chart is frightening. I'm looking for an entry point but there isn't an obvious support point. $2.80ish could be it otherwise you have to go back down to $2.00 to see anything you can put a line through.
Fibs are 289 / 220 and 178
Eh closed at 289 today .... maybe a bit of support here
PS - if you use 73 as the bottom (when UK Coal sold out and the new GCL was born) the Fib retracements are 275, 237, 198
nelehdine
02-11-2005, 07:45 PM
Thinking of jumping back into the out of favour coal sector ... exited EXL at 810 a few months ago. MCC and EXL making eyes at me at current levels ... you still holding SEC ???
Gloucester must be wondering what they have to do to get share price support. The buyback has barely started but an immediate fall in share price should help to make this a greater windfall for holders. Directors considered that they would pay up to 370 cps. The latest report clearly indicated that profit in the recent quarter was equal to the profit of the previous two quarters at 15M. With all sales on forward contracts this indicates a probable 60M earnings for a full year which would be close to a PE of 4x - I think the prospective PE compared in an early investor presentation was forecast at 6x. Debt levels reducing dramatically as the cash flows in. The first dividend for a long while. The directors indicate that the company has turned a corner. At least one has increased his holding.
What is hiding in the cupboard? Possibly only some very hungry investors who are able to realise profits of 5x their entry price in a bit over a year and are off looking to do it again...GCL looks pretty solid from the material that I have reviewed nelehdine.
nelehdine
04-11-2005, 07:08 AM
Aren't coal reserves only a few years rather than EXL and MCC's few decades. Earnings look great for GCL till 2010 ... but what then ?? They need to find some replacement reserves ... FAST !!
GCL reserves at Duralie their main coking coal deposit were increased by 50% in February 2005. - mine life to 2017. Committment of $2M to convert up to 150 Mt of resources into reserves - 3 phase program to extend mineable reserves beyond 2020.
The Board seems to be on to it.
Halebop
04-11-2005, 03:12 PM
...the best part is it's all been low cost, low risk incremental stuff. The main risks are the price of coal and keeping their cost base under control, both of which impacts everyone in the industry to varying degrees.
ASXIOU
11-11-2005, 11:38 PM
Looking pretty drastic down GCL way these days with it hitting 10 month lows almost daily. [:0] Whilst earnings will be stabilising over next few years, potential div yield looking looks pretty juicy at over 10% :). Must be close to bottoming soon in which case I reckon a major bounce will be called for.
Halebop
12-11-2005, 10:20 AM
Support is looking a little dodgy on GCL. I'd wait for clearer indication on the technicals. Volumes at least have been fairly light.
ASXIOU
17-11-2005, 06:59 PM
Could this be the turning-point for GCL?? or just a dead-cat bounce?? Picked up a few earlier in the day. Will be watching very closely and ready to bail at any further negative sign though I don't really think it can go any lower. Just too damn cheap based on fundamentals. :)
disc: Hold GCL. Please do your own research before deciding whether to buy, sell or hold stocks
hi ,most coalies up today,re my watchlist,gcl up 22c to 2.70,8.87%.exl up 36c to 6.61,5.76%.mcc up 49c to 5.79,9.25%.nhc up as well. gcl produced an a/n,gcls response to todays market which gives guidance as to how they are adjusting to the coal market.no profit projections,but an upbeat a/n.this may explain the s/p upturn for gcl but not the other coalies.just perhaps sentiment for the coal market is turning,cheers pago.
ASXIOU
24-11-2005, 02:39 PM
Looks like I picked the bottom on GCL pretty well. This could turn into a long term play. Looking a lot more positive now then it has in recent weeks. :)[:p]
OK Tinker you win, $6 is a forlorn task for CEY by the end of 2005, so where do I send the cheque???
I bailed out of CEY soon after my last post and just before my move to Australia. I have seen time and time again that it is time to sell when a company has a capital raising for no good reason. I sort of wish I sold my other coal stocks at the end of September too...
SEC
Tinker
13-12-2005, 01:15 AM
Aahhhh you are back SEC!
I wasn't as smart as you and held on for the promised $6. Still holding and wish I wasn't[:I]. As for the $6 by Xmas, yes well .. unless they strike oil or uranium at the bottom of one of their mines there's more chance of a socailist stealing less of the peoples money and spending the rest wisely:D.
And as for the cheque, thank you for your honesty but have long since cancelled the trip to Egypt. The family is now looking forward to a nice long weekend over Xmas in Ngaruawahia making me about as popular as a pork chop at a Jewish wedding[^]. Should have sold in September eh?
On a lighter note how has the shift been to Aus? Good I hope.
Cheers
Tinker
Tinker, sorry to hear you are still holding CEY but I share your pain with my other coal holdings. Don't know about an oil or uranium find, but you may find a Glencore lawyer at the bottom of the Tahmoor mine. Like cockroaches, if you find one you can guarantee there will be hundreds more hiding in the cracks.
Australia is great, better pay, better climate, better infrastructure, I wish I moved here straight after my UK stint in 2004. The NZ economy is too one-dimensional for my liking. Cullen's proposed CGT on overseas investments was the final straw.
SEC
Tinker
13-12-2005, 02:08 AM
Hey SEC, no sweat about CEY, I was just being flippant. I'm a big boy and all my call. And yes the coal holdings have taken a bit of a hit lately so we are in a similar boat I suspect. Brokers seem to rate GCL in the future and am mulling it over. Any thoughts?
Lawyers - yes well. Here's a joke. You land on a desert island which has Attilla the Hun, Ghengis Khan and a lawyer on it. However you have a gun with only two bullets in it. Who do you shoot?
The lawyer.....twice. Heh heh.
And best of luck in Aussie. You sound like many I know who have just quietly up and left in the last 5 years. Not ones to complain nor stick their hands out but amongst the thinning depth of the best NZ has to offer. Our loss and Aussies gain I have no doubt.
Cheers
Tinker
Tinker, my thoughts on GCL haven't changed since September. It's discounted for a reason - poor past performance, and big uncertainty over 2006 semi-soft coking coal prices. ABARE predicts a 30% fall for semi-soft, a bigger fall than PCI or hard coking. However ABARE are known to be conservative in their estimates.
SEC
MELBOURNE -(Dow Jones)- Iron ore prices may rise 11.5% next Japanese fiscal year, supported by rising global steel production led by China and constrained supply from Australia, Brazil and South Africa, Australia's chief commodities forecaster said Monday.
"Furthermore, rationalization of the Chinese steel industry is expected to result in a larger proportion of China's iron ore imports being supplied under long-term contract arrangements rather than from the spot market," the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics said in its December quarter bulletin.
"This is expected to result in Japanese and European steel mills settling contracts at higher prices in order to guarantee supplies," Abare said.
Iron ore miners BHP Billiton (BHP), Rio Tinto PLC (RTP) and CVRD (RIO) are currently negotiating contracts with steel mills for the Japanese fiscal year starting April 1. This fiscal year they secured an unprecedented 71.5% rise because of surging steel prices.
Australian analysts are forecasting further gains of up to 30% this year, despite steelmakers' rhetoric that falling steel prices mean they can't afford to pay more for raw materials.
Coking, or metallurgical, coal prices are expected to fall, Abare said. Hard coking coal is expected to fall 8% to US$115 a ton and semisoft coking coal is forecast to fall 30% to US$56 a ton. Pulverized coal injection coals may fall 17% to US$83 a ton, Abare said.
-By Matt Chambers, Dow Jones Newswires;
ASXIOU
14-12-2005, 11:26 PM
Stopped out of GCL the other day for a small profit. Seems the buy-back was paused for a couple of days and the price got smashed.
:( red-directed funds into PSA :)
Halebop
23-12-2005, 05:01 PM
Bought a modest number of GCL at $2.505, sold the bulk at $2.78. I pre-empted the sell signal and it didn't come so I may regret selling out too soon. Looking like it might make a tilt at breaking above the resistence line...
http://img380.imageshack.us/img380/4614/gclax22jun05to25dec056rs.png
airedale
24-12-2005, 01:42 PM
HI Halebop, that is a nice double bottom pattern forming on your chart.
Discl.Not holding GCL
Are there only coal embers left? Reports of new PCI and Semi soft contracts well below 2005 prices saw me bail out of MCC last week. It was a fantastic ride through 04 and early 05 but I held on longer than I should have.
To those that still have faith in GCL and its seemingly low PE. Consider that their overall cash costs as of mid-05 were about USD35/tonne. Given their thermal coal is low quality high ash high sulphur, they'll be lucky to be breaking even on their thermal coal (they were getting >$45/tonne). That leaves their higher quality semi soft coal as the cash cow, currently recieving USD100/tonne. If prices decrease by one third as indicated (read below), their operating profits drop by more than 50%.
0956 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch keeps Buy call on Excel Coal (EXL.AU), says delays at Millennium project already factored into share price. Notes unconfirmed reports of PCI and semi-soft coking coal settlements; says PCI reported by Tex report to have settled in US$60-65/ton range, down from US$100 for Japanese FY05, semi soft reported to have settled at US$50-55 down from US$75-80. No change to Merrill's A$8.00 share price target. EXL last at A$6.15. (BBA)
SEC (EXL)
Phew! Got out just in time, Semi soft contracts confimed going for $53/tonne, will affect MCC, GCL and FLX the worst. I suspect GCL's price is only being propped up by the share buy-back.
SEC
Early Signs Of Coal Price Decline
January 10 2006 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)
UBS reports that settlements for semi-soft coal have been reached between smaller coal players and Asian steel mills at US$53/t. Settlements are yet to be reached by the larger producers such as Rio Tinto (RIO) and Xstrata.
Price settlements to date are below those forecast by UBS and what the analysts believe to be market consensus. All else being equal, if these early settlements were to become the benchmark, then UBS would expect to see further earnings downgrades by the market.
Macarthur Coal (MCC) is the most exposed of the coal stocks covered by UBS to weaker than forecast coal prices.
With uncertainty over coal pricing, and the risks to the downside against the analysts’ current estimates, UBS believes it is too early to overweight the coal sector. While forward earnings multiples look attractive, the potential for 30% price declines against the analysts’ forecast declines of 10-15% and market consensus of 20% could see these multiples understated, UBS warns.
hi sec, can you explain the steady rise in the gcl share price over the last week given these soft coal prices.gcl is up 7% today to $3.20 and has certainly smashed through its downtrend.from a low of$2.50 in dec. gcl has broken through resistance on no news.cheers pago.
Most coalies are up 10+% over the past two days and all have smashed through downtrends so GCL is not a unique case. There was encouraging news on Friday for hard coking coal miners, it was reported Xstrata struck a deal for 06 contract at $121/tonne. Good for EXL and CEY, I suspect MCC and GCL went up in sympathy. No update on $53/tonne for semi soft coking coal although I note spot thermal is now $43/tonne (up from $38/tonne in November).
SEC (EXL)
Tinker
16-01-2006, 09:31 PM
All good news. What do you think about the chances of CEY hitting $6 by Xmas[8)]?
Cheers
Tinker
thanks sec,its hard to read the coal position,i believe gcl will get higher prices with japan then the spot prices,ie stable, assured prod,etc,.if you look at the chart for gcl it has been disappointing but the sp moves quickly.the share price up today tells me the market knows,cheers pago.
Hi Tinker, CEY management have to sort out the ongoing production problems with their high-profile Newstan and Tahmoor mines before it will reach $6. Unfortunately I suspect the quarterly report and HY profit won't be flash so we'll have to wait a bit longer...
SEC
Spot thermal coal now $44/tonne. With China shutting down oil fired power plants in favour of coal, as well as Indonesia likely to cut down on coal exports next year, this year's lower contract prices might just be a blip on the longer term scheme of things.
SEC (EXL:()
Indonesia's hunger for power may eat into coal exports
Indonesia - which led a surge in global coal production last year - may cut shipments in 2007 because of increased domestic demand as it builds power plants to ease an electricity shortage.
The country might export 5per cent less than the 122million tonnes forecast this year, the chairman of Indonesia's Coal Mining Association, Jeffrey Mulyono, said.
"Producers are going to be supplying more to the domestic market, where demand is surging because three new power plants are starting up this year," Mr Mulyono said. "Local consumption may reach 35per cent of total output next year compared with 30per cent this year."
Japanese power generators might have to pay higher prices for Indonesian coal next year to secure supplies, he said.
Indonesia has doubled shipments since 2000 and last year overtook Australia to become the world's biggest coal exporter to utilities. BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto Group and other coal producers in Indonesia, Australia and South Africa increased spending to expand their mines after coal prices soared in 2005, led by China's rising consumption. Demand for coal gained as crude oil and natural gas prices rose to records. Coal prices in Asia may fall almost 20per cent to less than $US45a tonne this year because of increased shipments. Indonesia exports its coal to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Europe.
The country's coal consumption grew about 5per cent last year. Demand could rise 20per cent over the next 18 months, the government has forecast.
The country's largest producer, PT Bumi Resources, has not decided whether to cut exports as it is in talks with local buyers to increase supplies.
Source:FinancialReview
BHP reported to be agreeing to benchmark $115/tonne for hard coking coal, higher than what the market was predicting. Looks good for coalies that mine HCC to rise further next week - perhaps EXL above $7 again at long last.
More good news on the thermal coal front too, spot prices further increasing, now over $46/tonne just in time for the annual contract negotiations to be concluded. Looks like the Japanese played their destocking games too soon and have been forced to restock ahead of time.
CEY's price is being hamstrung by expectations of a shocker quarterly production report, I'm looking for a buying opportunity after their HY announcement.
SEC
CEY leaving it till the final day (and probably after 4pm) to release their quarterly production report. Usually means it will be disappointing. They did the same thing last quarter.
SEC
CEY's 2Q report was disappointing, but the market seemed to be expecting it. Nice rise over $4 today given the drubbing elsewhere as coalies with thermal and coking exposure get uprated. I'm still waiting for CEY's HY announcement for a buying opportunity;).
SEC
The trend continues for thermal/HCC coalies, CEY and EXL up 4% and 6% respectively, GCL and MCC down slightly. EXL rose significantly after the Wilpinjong project was officially approved this afternoon, but I thought it was taken as read and didn't justify the extra buying. I'll take the rise nevertheless.
SEC (EXL [|)])
Spot price for thermal now $48/tonne, only ~10% below 05 contract prices. If 06 contract prices are around current spot prices, there is going to be some serious upward readjustment of eps esimates for coalies, some pessimistic brokers are still expecting $40/tonne for 06 thermal contracts. The thread title may be old but the embers haven't died away yet - reignite the old flames???
SEC
Oh hoo-bloody-ray, my m[8]s at GSJBW have just woken up to the rising spot price and decided to upgrade thermal coal stocks from short-term sell to hold. This after coal stock prices have already bolted 15 - 25% over the past 3 weeks.
They also upgraded Felix from short-term sell to hold, ironically just before an announcement from Felix their 06 profit will be half their initial expectations.
Yep, those GSJBW coal analysts are on the button alright and have been so for years[B)][xx(].
SEC
Spot thermal now $50/tonne!! Merrill Lynch is now entertaining the prospect of 06 contract prices rolling over from 05 prices. AFR reports Japanese power plants offering $46/tonne contracts. The brokers have been painfully slow to update their eps forecasts (they were quick to downgrade forecasts when the spot price was dropping 4 months ago) but the market is already factoring in 06 thermal prices of $46-$48/tonne. My prediction is $48/tonne (similar 8-10% fall to coking coal prices) but I'll gladly take any upside.
SEC (EXL)
SEC in your post is that USD or AUD for the spot price of coal in AFR and Merrill Lynch?
Thanks SEC
I think I figured that out but the numbers are so good I think the Aussies must have to pinch themselves to remind them that the results being achieved are real. If it weren't for the cash flowing everywhere there might be some doubt (investment $/share buybacks/proving reserves). $60-65AUD per tonne plus coking coal at twice this! Cost per tonne in the mid forties.
In NZ businesses that return 20pc NPAT on sales just don't exist. Certainly not with improving fundamentals. PEs of 4 or 6! Sales contracted for many months if not years and with forex cover.
Analysts seem to continually forget that reported numbers are on old average sale prices that haven't fully reflected current prices. Perhaps it is a bubble but unlike the tech stocks there are good reasons for current coal and resource prices. If it is a bubble and it bursts there are very sound businesses remaining fully supporting current share valuations.
CEY took a belting today, down 7.4%. Any idea what that was about?
GCL announce to ASX coking coal price for 2006_2007 contracted at USD85 per tonne. Thermal contracted to end of June at USD40 per tonne. This could reduce GCLs PE from 4 to 6 which is still outstanding. As the Reserve Bank of Australia observed yesterday coy share prices are well supported by performance.
I thought the GCL announcement was positive, only 15% reduction in coking coal prices (could have been much worse), yet the market was not impressed.
Credit Suisse has finally joined the ranks increasing their forecast coal prices (to around $50 from $45/tonne).
They made the comment "Japanese utilities missed chance to lock in low US$40s in December."
Yeah well serves them right for playing games.
SEC
Spot thermal back to $48/tonne, probably not surprising given other fossil fuels got a pasting this week.
CEY and EXL to report tomorrow. I don't think either will be very flash given production delays etc. I don't want to watch. Stop losses and low-ball bids in place, I think I'll go walkabout in the outback for a while.
SEC
Strewth I go walkabout for a week and EXL not only announces a further cost blowout for Millenium, but the directors have sold down and they've completed a capital raising! The first two issues I could handle, but a capital raising 'for the hell of it' breaks my cardinal rule. I've seen many occasions where such a raising precedes a share price plunge - CEY was a great example. Consequently I have sold out of EXL.
The coal story is still good at the moment short term, but I now struggle to find well priced coal stocks exposed to the thermal and HC market on the ASX that don't have production problems. CEY is a basketcase at the moment, and GCL has locked in 06 contracts leaving little upside.
SEC
I felt for you SEC when I saw the EXL reports. CEY was almost as bad. But GCL is locked in to profit from current contracts and looking for more coal to sell. There is upside in that.
GCL appear organised, not greedy, and confident. There is potential upside in thermal coal prices. GCL PE is currently 5.5, they are paying dividends, buying back shares, rolling in cash, proving reserves. No problem locking in that performance - most is barely reflected in past figures.
They at least recognise how lucky they are and realise that it is as good as it needs to get. While you were away the spot price for thermal coal was high and expectations seemed to be that high prices will continue.
OK Bilo I'll look at recent GCL reports to see how much thermal coal GCL has already locked in at the (low) prices to see how much potential upside exists. I agree in the 'steady as she goes' story short term, no production problems and steadily buying back shares proving they've got cash to burn. $2.80ish looks to be a low risk entry point.
I've held various coal stocks for nearly two years and for most of that time they were an integral part of my share portfolio. It feels strange no longer owning any - I must be suffering withdrawal symptoms. The coal craving is still there - it must be the coke addiction!
SEC
Xstrata settling 06 thermal coal contracts for $46/tonne. Slightly below my expectations but in the ball park.
GCL has contracted 3/4 of its thermal coal output to June 06 at $40/tonne so there may be some upside to prices after this. However given their high ash coal sells at a significant discount to the benchmark price, there is likely to be a downward bias. Never mind, their semi-soft coal remains their cash cow and excellent prices have been locked in for 06.
SEC
Tinker
07-03-2006, 04:19 AM
Hi Sec,
Well you were right, this time :), about CEY. I'll still hold and see what happens. My perception is more upside than further downside.
On a more upbeat note decided to go to Egypt after all. Off tomorrow. Will reflect further whilst cruising up the Nile:D.
Cheers
Tinker
Hi Tinker, hope you enjoy your Nile reflections and that your CEY holding doen't send you up the Nile without a paddle:D
TerryA
02-04-2006, 12:14 PM
AA.
You may find Bounty (BNT) of interest. Not a "Coal Junior" in the strictest sense of the term but a company with lots of promise.
I hold both BNT and BNTO but don't take that as a recommendation !!
Best wishes,
Well spot coal has been $53/tonne for a while (= 05 prices = likely rollover) but the only pure coal beneficiary over the past few months has been EXL whose forward PE has lenghten significantly (and not warranted IMO). All coal stocks have been smashed of late and most are near their 2006 lows again.
CEY is besieged with production problems and MCC's product range is too restricted - in a market with significantly increasing global supply. It pains me to say it but GCL looks the best coal buy at the moment!
SEC
Halebop
22-05-2006, 11:47 PM
Been keeping my eye on GCL. Even if Iron and the rest end up tanking I think they will still need a truck load of coking coal to cover the cash costs on keeping the steel mills open. Coal will hopefully lag any longer term correction and if the good times for commodities aint over yet then coal companies are just cheap (though I suspect with limited exceptions we are seeing a commodity market correction at least for the medium term).
Not willing to buy GCL on current technicals though. Happy to give the 1st 10% to someone with bigger cajones.
ASX ann 30-Jun
Excel Coal Limited has secured a further thermal coal contract to supply 2.08 million tonnes of export thermal coal over a four year period at a fixed price from Excel’s Hunter Valley operations in New South Wales.
This coal will be sold FOB Newcastle under Global Coal SCOTA terms (15% ash ad and 6,000kcal/kg NCV) and is destined for the European market. The contract runs from January 2007 through December 2010 with deliveries scheduled consistently over the four years.
This contract has fixed coal prices for the four year period which will deliver an average fixed price of approximately US$51.50 per tonne FOB Newcastle for the 2.08 million tonnes. Matching forward currency contracts have been entered into from July 2007 through December 2010 at an average rate of approximately 0.7223 US$ per A$, resulting in a fixed coal price of approximately A$71.45 per tonne for the 2.08 million tonne contract.
This additional contract further underpins Excel’s growth plans and provides significant volume and pricing certainty for increased thermal coal production at Excel’s Wambo and Wilpinjong mines. When added to the recently announced fixed price sales contracts, Excel Coal now has approximately 46% (7.15 million tonnes) of planned incremental thermal coal production over the next four years contracted at fixed prices.
ASX: Peabody, the world’s largest private sector coal company has offered AUD1,800M for ASX listed Excel Coal (EXL). 18-19 times earnings. 15 times prospective earning plus dividends. Also a 325pc premium to listing price in 2004.
A little takeover activity should boost the coal juniors a little more.
Looks like the directors were really keen to get out of Excel, judging by the lack of price premium. Also note how they sold down a while ago. I have no idea why the market has price in a premium speculating on a counteroffer, the directors still control over half the company and given it is a friendly takeover, it´s game over.
Also note the 07 guidance is a lot lower than analyst estimates.
But as Bilo says, other juniors should rise in sympathy. Gloucester, Macarthur, Straits and Felix might well be in the spotlight.
SEC
quote:Originally posted by SEC
CEY is besieged with production problems and MCC's product range is too restricted - in a market with significantly increasing global supply. It pains me to say it but GCL looks the best coal buy at the moment!
SEC
Well the Newstan mine has bled cash for too long and CEY management has thrown in the towel, they'll close it within the next two years. Looks like Newstan and Tahmoor mines need deeper pockets to realise their full potential than what CEY can provide. Then there's the battle of the Anvil Hill development against the environmentalists...
CEY might become a target for the likes of Xstrata/Glencore at this rate, particularly if they have some inside knowledge on when the long term contracts with the power stations are up for renewal. These forward contracts must also be hitting CEY, no change in revenue but spiralling labour and materials costs.
In the meantime MCC continues to languish and GCL has reached new highs and now trades at a PE of 9 - it used to be around 4!
SEC
Hi SEC
Nice to see that you are still watching coal. GCL has provided a good return since you tipped it as "perhaps the best". The discovery of the Clareval seam alongside the current activities at Duralie with great seam thickness and low overburden ratios will enable low cost production. Mine life has been extended at higher output rates and improved coking coal quality is expected. Land purchased, expansion plans, sound decisions on markets, prices and exchange rates - everything continues to be good with this company.
newbie
16-02-2007, 11:21 AM
See that second Sennen Resources deal SN on Canada's TSX venture? Anglo and Mitsui are paying $10 million for those other two properties. My estimates they will sit on $16 million by end of June and $9 million receivables over following 24 months. Not bad for 45 million shares issued and no debt. Just need to complete regulatory approvals.
Check out the news releases at http://www.sennenresources.com/s/NewsReleases.asp
quote:Originally posted by Bilo
Hi SEC
Nice to see that you are still watching coal. GCL has provided a good return since you tipped it as "perhaps the best". The discovery of the Clareval seam alongside the current activities at Duralie with great seam thickness and low overburden ratios will enable low cost production. Mine life has been extended at higher output rates and improved coking coal quality is expected. Land purchased, expansion plans, sound decisions on markets, prices and exchange rates - everything continues to be good with this company.
I'm still watching coal. Current thermal spot prices are excellent, their highest since the halcyon coal days of 2004. Shame you can't get it onto a ship! PEs for Australian based coal miners are becoming unrealistic. Even the PE for GCL has ballooned to 12!
I recently bought into copper/coal miner Straits Resources (SRL) when they got their Tritton copper offtake deal sorted out. SRL has a 60% stake in the Indonesian Sebuku mine which is producing about 3.5M tonnes a year and will be taking full advantage of current high prices without worrying about all those ship queues off the Australian ports! SRL is trading on a forward PE of 8 for FY07 and 5 for FY08. Note their FY is the same as the CY.
SEC
Welcome back SEC
How do you calculate your PE? And are you steering looking in the rear-view mirror on this one?
Gloucester’s 1st half was notable for high shipments of thermal coal. If you have it then shipping it when spot prices are high makes good sense. Coking coal shipments are projected to catch up before year end.
The share price has begun to factor in the planned 40% expansion and significant reserve upgrade due in March.
Gloucester has settled very early at USD74 per tonne with Japanese customers. I wondered if it was about time to find some new customers for their high fluidity coking coal perhaps in India for some currency diversity. Early settlement does allow them to lock in exchange rates and cash flows.
GCL has low debt, has already purchased land for Duralie expansion, and are looking at other opportunities. Good management, good growth prospects. Greenies are the biggest risk, but probably only to a publicly listed company. Once the expansion is locked in it will be a nice little operation to own just by borrowing a bit more from the bank. Interest costs are well covered by the cash flows.
quote:Originally posted by Bilo
Welcome back SEC
How do you calculate your PE? And are you steering looking in the rear-view mirror on this one?
I virtually never quote historical PEs. Consensus forecasts for GCL are 12 for 07, 11 for 08 and 8 for 09. Source Commsec.
SEC
Gloucester Coal on trading halt for "price sensitive announcement regarding its ownership" possibly until Tuesday.
hi sec.looks like gcl is subject to a takeover bid.gcl is a good /solid company.i hold a few.gcl is not a spec/rocketship.i await the bid details,but sometime ago i saw potential value at near $6.last traded at $3.81.any views on value?.could get interesting,cheers pago.
One analyst values GCL at $5.50 according to Mining News. OK with me.
quote:Originally posted by pago
hi sec.looks like gcl is subject to a takeover bid.gcl is a good /solid company.i hold a few.gcl is not a spec/rocketship.i await the bid details,but sometime ago i saw potential value at near $6.last traded at $3.81.any views on value?.could get interesting,cheers pago.
Takeover offer by Xstrata $4.75. That values GCL's 08/09 PE at 10 (when Duralie expansion kicks in). Compare that to CEY, MCC and FLX all trading at 11 for the same period and I reckon Xstrata are getting a good deal if they pull this off. I'm not surprised the closing price is higher than the offer, they could offer $5 and still get GCL at a discount.
It also puts Straits in a very favouable light. Despite its price increasing 25% in the past 6 weeks Straits is still far too cheap wrt its peers in either coal or copper, currently trading at a PE of 7 for 08 and 5 for 09. Most of its EBITDA comes from its coal mining operations.
SEC
So are you guys still holding GCL? I note two new SSHs since the bid was made so Xstrata won't get to 90% unless they increase their offer by quite a bit.
I'm quite pleased with Straits' performance since February. Up nearly as much as GCL but with no takeover bid, and with none of the port infrastructure issues that bedevil the likes of GCL and MCC.
SEC
Still holding SEC and increased exposure somewhat.
hi sec,guj/gujo is worth a look for coal investors.india company,gujarat nre is the principle owner.plans to produce within a year.very cheap until recently,spiked 200% odd,now retracing,im watching the price for a possible top up,cheers pago.
Thanks Pago but too small and illiquid for my liking. Apparently the ex-Excel Coal directors are about to list another coal company on the ASX, this could be interesting.
SEC
Huang Chung
26-05-2007, 04:46 PM
Northern Enegy Corporation (NEC) looks to be an interesting story.
It's a coal junior, still at the exploration / project development stage.
NEC has a number of projects with potential. For example:
Yamala - On the railway line between Emerald and Gladstone. Japanese trading house Sojitz has now farmed in. Aiming for 410-460 mt of thermal/PCI coal. Targeting 3-3.5 mtpa u/g.
Maryborough - Hard Coaking Coal resource. Possible smaller scale development of around 200-500 kpts o/c. Options are to rail to Bundaberg or Brisbane using the existing QR rail line.
Elimatta - Located near Wandoan in the northern Surat Basin. Coal resource is now 222 mt. Resource is a relatively low ash/sulphur/nitrogen steaming coal. Targeting 3-5 mtpa o/c. Elimatta is a stranded resource at the moment, but a new rail development is planned to enable the coal resources of the northern Surat Basin to be transported to the Port of Gladstone for export.
Market cap is currently around $40m. It will be a while before we see any cash flow, but, it looks like they are sitting on a ton (or, more accurately, serveral hundred million tons) of the black stuff.
For me, it's one to tuck away in the bottom draw for a while.
[quote]Originally posted by SEC
So are you guys still holding GCL? I note two new SSHs since the bid was made so Xstrata won't get to 90% unless they increase their offer by quite a bit.
Hi Sec and others.
So the price built steadily to $5, 25cps over the offer price, then collapsed this week without a murmur (that I heard).
Was this confirmation that the substantial holders already have the numbers to defeat the takeover?
I have spoken B4 on my complete lack of support for Grant Samuel valuations, and this was more classic conservative BS from them - no wonder the world is being taken over by private equity and large mining companies paying minimal taxes and inadequate dividends. The cash flows in a couple of years (after 2009, after significant cash flows buying land and developing the mine and processing facility) support a much higher price and their methodology hides this fact.
GS included a miserable coal price and also downplayed the potential extent and quality of the coal resource. Glossing over the effect that mixing high fluidity semi-soft Gloucester coal with other coking coal would have on the effective value to customers (and Xstrata).
Also brickbats to whoever prepared the scheme booklet. It takes advantage of most GCL investors being visually challenged and needing a magnifying glass just to read the print and a more powerful magnifying glass to read volumes of fine print - useless Bs.
Was this the intention?
Are Directors and Management thumbing their noses at the other shareholders because they had decided to move on?
I won't be able to attend the meetings. Is anyone who posts here going?
Takeover offer by Xstrata $4.75. That values GCL's 08/09 PE at 10 (when Duralie expansion kicks in). Compare that to CEY, MCC and FLX all trading at 11 for the same period and I reckon Xstrata are getting a good deal if they pull this off. I'm not surprised the closing price is higher than the offer, they could offer $5 and still get GCL at a discount.
It also puts Straits in a very favouable light. Despite its price increasing 25% in the past 6 weeks Straits is still far too cheap wrt its peers in either coal or copper, currently trading at a PE of 7 for 08 and 5 for 09. Most of its EBITDA comes from its coal mining operations.
SEC
Straits is up a respectable 100+% in eight months as coal prices continue to rise and the peer discount is being reduced.
What interests me is how the Straits (SRL) share price performance is being left behind by its Singapore listed coal subsidiary, Straits Asia. The market is valuing SRL's holding in Straits Asia at about 85% of SRL's own market capitalisation.
If effect, the market is valuing SRL's copper and gold operations at less than $200M. This valuation is despite SRL raising about $128M to close out the Tritton hedge book. With production of copper being ramped up to 60000+ tonnes and gold to 200000+ oz gold in 2008/9, + antimony + tungsten, this valuation is ridiculously low.
This chronic undervaluation of SRL's non-coal operations has to correct itself and as such I believe there's plenty more upside in SRL even if thermal coal prices start levelling off.
SEC
PS Looks as if Xstrata was indeed undervaluing Gloucester Coal at $4.75. Jubilee holders take note....
SEC
Coldry process being considered as oil prices soar
10:44, Monday, 5 November 2007
Sydney - Monday - November 5: (RWE Aust Business News) -
Environmental Clean Technologies (ASX:ESI) is in discussions with a
number of parties regarding coal-to-oil technology now that international
oil prices are fast closing in on the $US95/barrel mark.
It has had a number of enquiries regarding the use of the
Coldry process technology in a cost effective manner in the production of
oil from brown coal.
It has long been considered that $US60 barrel was the point at
which coal-to-diesel would become an economically feasible proposition.
Having surpassed that point, the potential to develop such
processes is likely to gain greater momentum.
Use of the Coldry process, a low-pressure method developed by ESI
which expels 95 per cent of water from brown coal to produce a dense and
energy-rich fuel pellet, could be extended to coal-to-oil applications,
as well as existing efficient electricity generation.
Coldry brown coal pellets are an ideal front end feedstock
solution with research indicating that these pellets deliver higher oil
yield per tonne than standard black coal.
Previous coal-to-oil processes using standard brown coal have
been criticised for their typically high-emissions cost to the
environment, however the latest Coldry technology allows the
coal-to-oil conversion process to proceed with up to 40pc less emissions
than its ordinary brown coal counterpart.
Victoria boasts the second largest brown coal reserves in the
world and the increased use of the vast brown coal reserves could unlock
immense economic opportunities.
What interests me is how the Straits (SRL) share price performance is being left behind by its Singapore listed coal subsidiary, Straits Asia. The market is valuing SRL's holding in Straits Asia at about 85% of SRL's own market capitalisation.
If effect, the market is valuing SRL's copper and gold operations at less than $200M. This valuation is despite SRL raising about $128M to close out the Tritton hedge book. With production of copper being ramped up to 60000+ tonnes and gold to 200000+ oz gold in 2008/9, + antimony + tungsten, this valuation is ridiculously low.
This chronic undervaluation of SRL's non-coal operations has to correct itself and as such I believe there's plenty more upside in SRL even if thermal coal prices start levelling off.
SEC
The herd mentality selloff on the ASX in recent days compared to elsewhere has meant SRL's stake in Straits Asia is now worth more than SRL itself. So SRL's copper/gold operations are being valued at less than zero. Everyone's forgotten that SRL is a gold producer too and that thermal coal remains around $90/tonne.
This discrepancy in pricing can't continue. I'll be taking advantage of SRL's steep discount next week.
SEC
The herd mentality selloff on the ASX in recent days compared to elsewhere has meant SRL's stake in Straits Asia is now worth more than SRL itself. So SRL's copper/gold operations are being valued at less than zero. Everyone's forgotten that SRL is a gold producer too and that thermal coal remains around $90/tonne.
This discrepancy in pricing can't continue. I'll be taking advantage of SRL's steep discount next week.
SEC
Hi SEC great to see you back on this thread. I have looked at SRL (and hold a few - it has been a very rocky and unprofitable existence with the share price yo-yo-ing worse than MCC but at least on the low side of valuations, unlike MCC) but find their presentations totally confusing. I think I have them down for 4M tonnes of thermal coal but moving to 8M sometime, but could be capable of 8M now if it wasn't raining and they counted all their mines. They have bought another mine and are developing another.
What are they supposed to be producing for this quarter, next etc?
What is there PE and PEG?
Are they going to be generating cash from here on in - they seem to have been spending heaps? This is no longer the time for being cash flow negative.
- I seem to remember you are the man for this stuff (I got a feel for this from the GCL discussion) - not that I believe valuation numbers based on PE, just that I understand that bigger players in the market than me push these myths.
From what I can see they should be a much better bet than the Queensland coys being stuffed around by trains and ports. I tend to compare them with MCC because of the production/sales volumes...coal in the ground without a port has little value to me....prospective negative cash flows could be poisonous....
Hi SEC great to see you back on this thread. I have looked at SRL (and hold a few - it has been a very rocky and unprofitable existence with the share price yo-yo-ing worse than MCC but at least on the low side of valuations, unlike MCC) but find their presentations totally confusing. I think I have them down for 4M tonnes of thermal coal but moving to 8M sometime, but could be capable of 8M now if it wasn't raining and they counted all their mines. They have bought another mine and are developing another.
What are they supposed to be producing for this quarter, next etc?
What is there PE and PEG?
Are they going to be generating cash from here on in - they seem to have been spending heaps? This is no longer the time for being cash flow negative.
- I seem to remember you are the man for this stuff (I got a feel for this from the GCL discussion) - not that I believe valuation numbers based on PE, just that I understand that bigger players in the market than me push these myths.
From what I can see they should be a much better bet than the Queensland coys being stuffed around by trains and ports. I tend to compare them with MCC because of the production/sales volumes...coal in the ground without a port has little value to me....prospective negative cash flows could be poisonous....
SEC
The SRL quarterly confirms current production at 4M tonnes pa thermal coal, plus some gold, silver and copper production with more of everything on the way. Capitalisation about 2/3rds of MCC. PCC coal price to Thermal coal price - not 50% more??
Hi SEC great to see you back on this thread. I have looked at SRL (and hold a few - it has been a very rocky and unprofitable existence with the share price yo-yo-ing worse than MCC but at least on the low side of valuations, unlike MCC) but find their presentations totally confusing. I think I have them down for 4M tonnes of thermal coal but moving to 8M sometime, but could be capable of 8M now if it wasn't raining and they counted all their mines. They have bought another mine and are developing another.
What are they supposed to be producing for this quarter, next etc?
What is there PE and PEG?
Are they going to be generating cash from here on in - they seem to have been spending heaps? This is no longer the time for being cash flow negative.
- I seem to remember you are the man for this stuff (I got a feel for this from the GCL discussion) - not that I believe valuation numbers based on PE, just that I understand that bigger players in the market than me push these myths.
From what I can see they should be a much better bet than the Queensland coys being stuffed around by trains and ports. I tend to compare them with MCC because of the production/sales volumes...coal in the ground without a port has little value to me....prospective negative cash flows could be poisonous....
Agree that their presentations are a bit confusing. Their recent Nov07 presentation has them down for approx 9.5M tonnes production for CY08. Consensus 08PE is currently 10 but that will be revised downwards with thermal coal at $114/tonne and looking to stay at these levels for some time to come. Am also watching GCL again since it is now trading on PE 10 for FY09.
I acted on my word and bought more SRL a couple of weeks ago. What a steal that turned out to be - SRL is one of the very few ASX200 stocks up for the year (+6%). Yet the pricing discrepancy with Straits Asia gets wider. SRL's stake in Straits Asia is now worth 108% of SRL's market cap, so the market is valuing SRL's copper, gold and metals trading operations at minus $120 million. SRL's market cap has to catch up at some point - more upside to come.
SEC
Agree that their presentations are a bit confusing. Their recent Nov07 presentation has them down for approx 9.5M tonnes production for CY08. Consensus 08PE is currently 10 but that will be revised downwards with thermal coal at $114/tonne and looking to stay at these levels for some time to come. Am also watching GCL again since it is now trading on PE 10 for FY09.
SEC
SRL's Quarterly report clarified their production for me.
Sebuku is producing at an annual rate of 5.6Mt
Jembayan, the coal mine they have just purchased, produced 4Mt in calendar 07.
Triton produced 3800tonnes of Cu in concentrate
Also Mt Muro 12000 oz Au and 47000 oz Ag
All SRL's the coal is the right stuff for the moment - thermal coal
Unlike MacArthur Coal who if they didn't have contracts for PCI coal (that they might not fill for Force Majeur) would be better off selling their premium coal as thermal coal. How frustrating must it be to have a coal mine in Queensland. I can see why the producers may be slow to sign contracts for volumes at fixed prices when spot prices are so attractive and the USD is likely to be all over the place.
I acted on my word and bought more SRL a couple of weeks ago. What a steal that turned out to be - SRL is one of the very few ASX200 stocks up for the year (+6%). Yet the pricing discrepancy with Straits Asia gets wider. SRL's stake in Straits Asia is now worth 108% of SRL's market cap, so the market is valuing SRL's copper, gold and metals trading operations at minus $120 million. SRL's market cap has to catch up at some point - more upside to come.
SEC
... and more upside has indeed occurred. SRL up an extra 20% in 3 weeks while Straits Asia has gone nowhere in AUD. Missed out on GCL though, and it's up 30% over the same period.
FY result will be out soon, it won't be flash due to flooding at Sebuku affecting production and closing out copper hedge positions. But 2008 is looking good so far - big increases in coal, copper and gold production, largely unhedged.
Bilo, you must be pleased with Straits' performance now?
SEC
soulman
25-02-2008, 07:18 PM
SEC, TSE did well for you today. You seem to have a knack for picking winners like IGO, SRL, WOR and countless others. And exiting on real losers like AFG. Is this as simple as 'let your profits run and cut your losses short.' I have a lot to learn still, that's for sure.
GCL, SRL, NHC, MCC, RSP (currently T/O) are having a ball in the market. It looks like Gold and Coal party this year, along with Iron Ore. Actually all commodities in general.
SEC, TSE did well for you today. You seem to have a knack for picking winners like IGO, SRL, WOR and countless others. And exiting on real losers like AFG. Is this as simple as 'let your profits run and cut your losses short.' I have a lot to learn still, that's for sure.
GCL, SRL, NHC, MCC, RSP (currently T/O) are having a ball in the market. It looks like Gold and Coal party this year, along with Iron Ore. Actually all commodities in general.
Thanks Soulman. But let's not forget that I allowed a potential 160% profit in AFG to evaporate to zilch in a matter of weeks because even though it had fallen 60+% from its peak I still considered it a profitable trade and still let it run. But yeah whenever a profit turns into a loss, equity protection is paramount and tight stops are used to reduce any potential loss.
Market response to TSE's announcement was amazing. I was putting money on the market pummelling TSE regardless of result since it is in the same 'high PE outperformer' category like LEI, UGL, JBH etc that have been caned ever since their results were announced. Was ready to buy some heavily discounted stock if the result was half decent. But it goes up 24% instead....
SEC
hi sec,guj/gujo is worth a look for coal investors.india company,gujarat nre is the principle owner.plans to produce within a year.very cheap until recently,spiked 200% odd,now retracing,im watching the price for a possible top up,cheers pago.
hi sec,i have been rewarded with gujo,now gnm,its taken a while but the % is great.dirty old coal sometimes shines better then gold.i cant believe the gcl sp.any opinion on gnm?im not selling anymore cheers pago.
hi sec,i have been rewarded with gujo,now gnm,its taken a while but the % is great.dirty old coal sometimes shines better then gold.i cant believe the gcl sp.any opinion on gnm?im not selling anymore cheers pago.
Sorry Pago, GNM is off my radar, too illiquid and no broker coverage. Also added risks of production ramp-up, delays, future coal prices etc. I'm sure GNM will do well in this environment but there are several ASX listed coal stocks with production certainty and good liquidity that provide value with lower risk.
SEC
airedale
28-02-2008, 03:02 PM
Just wondered if anyone else is following Cockatoo Coal. Based in Queensland, mining in the Surat Valley, and have recently aquired more tenements there. It has gone from 15 cents to around 60 cents in the last year. One of the Korean Power companies has a big stake. I have an inkling that production will increase when the "missing link" is fitted to the rail system to get more coal to the port.
Sorry Pago, GNM is off my radar, too illiquid and no broker coverage. Also added risks of production ramp-up, delays, future coal prices etc. I'm sure GNM will do well in this environment but there are several ASX listed coal stocks with production certainty and good liquidity that provide value with lower risk.
SEC
hi sec,thanks for your opinion.gnm are producing coal,the plan is to increase to 1mill tpa in 08/09,maybe more,i agree the risk lies with production delays,many projects suffer delays.gnm have the capital and the market,india,to make this work.my entry was sub 40c,gnm hasnt faltered during jan/feb,now at $1.54,but this took a while.it seems several of the coalers have problems,flooding in queensland,lack of rail/port facility,given the spec talk of coal price increases,ie hard coking coal from $98 to $200 tonne,i will hold gnm for now.gcl at $7.78 and mcc at $12.20 too rich for me.do you have any coal prospects that are worth a look?cheers pago,
The herd mentality selloff on the ASX in recent days compared to elsewhere has meant SRL's stake in Straits Asia is now worth more than SRL itself. So SRL's copper/gold operations are being valued at less than zero. Everyone's forgotten that SRL is a gold producer too and that thermal coal remains around $90/tonne.
This discrepancy in pricing can't continue.
And the discrepancy is not going to continue. Straits' management got fed up with the constant discounting of SRL's price compared to Straits Asia (SAR) and has decided on a demerger so that SAR will soon list on the ASX separate from SRL.
So what would SRL be worth ex demerger?
SRL closed on Friday at $6.92 and owns 51% of SAR. SRL's stake in SAR was worth $5.81 per share. Values SRL's other assets at $1.11ps (up from 73cps prior to the announcement). Broker reports have consistently valued SRL's other assets at around $2ps based on forecast earnings so the market is still significantly discounting SRL's other assets to the tune of 90cps.
Furthermore, SAR trades at a significant discount compared to its peers because of SRL's blocking stake (approx 1/3 discount on 08 and 09 forecasts compared to Australian coal producers). Post the demerger SAR will generate more interest by the big miners and should be rerated to the valuation of its peers. Upside is $3 per SRL share.
Conclusion - if a demerged SRL/SAR were valued properly it is worth about $11, 60% north of what it is now. The case to revise SRL's valuation upwards is compelling and shows how badly the market has been discounting SRL over the past few months.
SEC
And the discrepancy is not going to continue. Straits' management got fed up with the constant discounting of SRL's price compared to Straits Asia (SAR) and has decided on a demerger so that SAR will soon list on the ASX separate from SRL.
Conclusion - if a demerged SRL/SAR were valued properly it is worth about $11, 60% north of what it is now. The case to revise SRL's valuation upwards is compelling and shows how badly the market has been discounting SRL over the past few months.
SEC
I bought into SRL as well SEC but it got decimated during the liquidity sell down - I assume because their past returns looked pretty bad against their current indebtedness. I don't rate their motly little bunch of non-coal assets highly. The ASX share price has since been the subject of index balancing and more manipulation possibly lately to do with the demerger arrangements. The indonesian coal arm doesn't seem to be liked by the ASX investors as much as Australian coal coys. Is Straits Asia to be listed on the ASX? Will SRL go to over $10 before demerger? Will it get back over $8?
I agree that on fundamentals Straits Asia's 8M tonnes of thermal coal and growing reserves is a potential multi-bagger if it was valued like an Australian coal coy.
And by the way SEC, how do you explain GCL going over $9? MCC to over $13 - 3x what it was at the start of the bear market.
I bought into SRL as well SEC but it got decimated during the liquidity sell down - I assume because their past returns looked pretty bad against their current indebtedness. I don't rate their motly little bunch of non-coal assets highly. The ASX share price has since been the subject of index balancing and more manipulation possibly lately to do with the demerger arrangements. The indonesian coal arm doesn't seem to be liked by the ASX investors as much as Australian coal coys. Is Straits Asia to be listed on the ASX? Will SRL go to over $10 before demerger? Will it get back over $8?
I agree that on fundamentals Straits Asia's 8M tonnes of thermal coal and growing reserves is a potential multi-bagger if it was valued like an Australian coal coy.
And by the way SEC, how do you explain GCL going over $9? MCC to over $13 - 3x what it was at the start of the bear market.
Yes Straits Asia (SAR) will be listed on the ASX pending shareholder approval. It will hold all of SRL's coal assets including the Madagascar coal rights.
Agree that if SAR was *only* listed on the ASX it would trade at a perennial discount to its Australian peers. However since it is dual listed on the SGX and coal co's trade at a higher PE multiple on Asian markets there should be a fairer valuation ex demerger and should trade at similar forward PEs to Australian peers.
Also agree that SRL's non-coal assets are not "world class", but Tritton stands out. Average broker valuation for Tritton is about $220M or $1ps on production of 30ktpa unhedged copper. By way of comparison, Copperco (another high cost copper producer) will produce 25ktpa and is currently valued at $300M. The value of Tritton will become more transparent and obvious ex demerger.
Short term upside for SRL is $8 as steep discount in non-coal assets unwinds. Ex demerger, if SAR gets re-rated to peers like GCL or FLX then add another $3 equivalent.
SEC
Yes Straits Asia (SAR) will be listed on the ASX pending shareholder approval. It will hold all of SRL's coal assets including the Madagascar coal rights.
Agree that if SAR was *only* listed on the ASX it would trade at a perennial discount to its Australian peers. However since it is dual listed on the SGX and coal co's trade at a higher PE multiple on Asian markets there should be a fairer valuation ex demerger and should trade at similar forward PEs to Australian peers.
Also agree that SRL's non-coal assets are not "world class", but Tritton stands out. Average broker valuation for Tritton is about $220M or $1ps on production of 30ktpa unhedged copper. By way of comparison, Copperco (another high cost copper producer) will produce 25ktpa and is currently valued at $300M. The value of Tritton will become more transparent and obvious ex demerger.
Short term upside for SRL is $8 as steep discount in non-coal assets unwinds. Ex demerger, if SAR gets re-rated to peers like GCL or FLX then add another $3 equivalent.
SEC
Thanks SEC
I think if the cap imposed on the ASX200 daily movement was relaxed SRL would soon be $8.
airedale
07-06-2008, 12:19 PM
EPE has recently fired up, going from 5 cents to 30 cents in days, after being around 5 cents for a long time. It has come back to 23.5 cents.
The reason for the rise is that EPE have done a deal with Bandanna Coal. Bandanna owns 100% of the Dingo West project 150 kms west of Rockhampton.
Macarthur Coal are in the background and can earn a 70% stake in Dingo West after meeting certain criteria, including funding all project expenditure until the first 50,000 tonne cargo of coal is loaded on to a ship.
Discl :: Holding EPE . But don't rely on my research.
NEW YORK, July 2 (Reuters) - Stocks in coal mining companies tumbled on Wednesday after both physical and swaps prices fell in what traders said was a long-awaited correction.Analysts noted the benchmark European price dropped from around $225 per tonne to below $200, which in turn dragged down U.S. prices.
The Dow Jones coal index .DJUSCL was down 10.1 percent in New York at Wednesday midday.
"The U.S. guys have been signing contracts at very good numbers, well into the triple digits, but the stocks don't reflect that," said Jeremy Sussman, a coal industry analyst with Natixis Bleichroeder.
"We are telling people now is a good time to buy."
In London at least one physical coal cargo has traded almost $20 lower than prices indicated on Tuesday and bids have pulled back by over $20 from Tuesday's levels for South African cargoes FOB Richards Bay and multi-origin coal delivered into Europe.
Australian coal FOB Newcastle reached $201 a tonne earlier in the week and Newcastle swaps hit similar numbers. Newcastle swaps on Wednesday began trading at $192, $185, $183 and $177.
Richards Bay cargoes traded close to $180 early in the week but bids had pulled back to $150 by Wednesday afternoon.
Miners were the top losers in London, with BHP Billiton (BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research) falling 4.4 percent, Rio Tinto (RIO.L: Quote, Profile, Research) 4.39 percent and Anglo American (AAL.L: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 4.3 percent.
In midday trading on the New York Stock Exchange, Arch Coal (ACI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 12.81 percent at $65.50, Consol Energy (CNX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) dropped 10.8 percent to $99.86, Massey Energy (MEE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 11.82 percent to $81.43 and Peabody Energy (BTU.N: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 7.06 percent at $79.83. (Reporting by Steve James in New York; additional reporting by Jackie Cowhig in London)
yogi-in-oz
03-07-2008, 01:32 PM
:)
Hi folks,
AAL ..... another junior coal miner, due to list on 10072008 and
our astroanalysis shows us these positive cycle for July 2008:
10072008 ... should be good support on listing
15-16072008 ... positive spotlight on AAL ... :)
23-24072008 ... positive news expected here
31072008 ... minor and positive (intraday)
have a great day
paul
:)
=====
Dr_Who
03-07-2008, 02:57 PM
A very nervous market.
Who is brave?
Footsie
03-07-2008, 05:34 PM
totally out of coal plays as of the open this morning
bursting of the bubble
So what would SRL be worth ex demerger?
SRL closed on Friday at $6.92 and owns 51% of SAR. SRL's stake in SAR was worth $5.81 per share. Values SRL's other assets at $1.11ps (up from 73cps prior to the announcement). Broker reports have consistently valued SRL's other assets at around $2ps based on forecast earnings so the market is still significantly discounting SRL's other assets to the tune of 90cps.
Valuation update: SRL closed on Friday at $5.10 and now owns 47.1% of SAR after pocketing A$113 cash (49cps) from selling down its stake. SRL's stake in SAR is now worth $4.45. Add the 49c cash and the market in its infinite wisdom is now valuing SRL's other assets at 16cps.
The brokers have valued SRL's other assets at $2ps. Let's be conservative and say the typical Australian mid tier miner is now trading on the market at half what the broker valuations are (if OZ Minerals is any guide). Even then, the market is undervaluing SRL's other assets by about 85cps.
I am determined to hold and accumlate under $5 until this inexplicable and unjustifiable discounting of SRL is unwound, either by the time of the demerger or before it.
SEC
shasta
09-08-2008, 11:12 PM
Valuation update: SRL closed on Friday at $5.10 and now owns 47.1% of SAR after pocketing A$113 cash (49cps) from selling down its stake. SRL's stake in SAR is now worth $4.45. Add the 49c cash and the market in its infinite wisdom is now valuing SRL's other assets at 16cps.
The brokers have valued SRL's other assets at $2ps. Let's be conservative and say the typical Australian mid tier miner is now trading on the market at half what the broker valuations are (if OZ Minerals is any guide). Even then, the market is undervaluing SRL's other assets by about 85cps.
I am determined to hold and accumlate under $5 until this inexplicable and unjustifiable discounting of SRL is unwound, either by the time of the demerger or before it.
SEC
Wouldn't this potential IPO be popular!
Rio Tinto may float US coal assets
Jeffrey Sparshott, Dow Jones Newswires | August 09, 2008
RIO Tinto said it was considering an initial public offering for its US coal business instead of an outright sale to another company.
The global miner has targeted the sale of $US10 billion ($11.2 billion) in assets this year and has said it will sell at least $US15 billion in total as it defends itself against a hostile bid from BHP Billiton.
Rio Tinto subsidiary Cloud Peak Energy, based in Gillette, Wyoming, filed an IPO prospectus with US Securities and Exchange Commission.
The filing lists a maximum offering price of $US1 billion, though a company spokesman noted that figure is used to determine a filing fee and doesn't indicate the ultimate proceeds.
A price range would be established before the actual sale, the spokesman added.
Last year ABN Amro estimated the sale value of Rio Tinto's US coal assets at $US4.1 billion, though prices for the commodity have since more than doubled year-on-year.
Cloud Peak produced 132.3 million tonnes of coal in 2007, making it the second-largest producer in the US by volume.
Rio Tinto chief financial officer Guy Elliott said Rio Tinto continues to explore the possible sale of some or all of its US coal assets as part of the group-wide divestment program, as well as the IPO option.
"Both options are being explored in the interests of maximizing shareholder value," he said in a statement.
Rio Tinto in July said it sold its Kintyre uranium project in Western Australia for $US495 million, taking total asset sales so far to $US2.94 billion.
Rio Tinto has said proceeds will help pay down the $US40 billion in debt it took on to fund its $US38.1 billion takeover of aluminium producer Alcan.
Rio Tinto has rejected BHP Billiton's $US147 billion, all-equity proposed bid
shasta
11-08-2008, 10:11 PM
Wouldn't this potential IPO be popular!
Rio Tinto may float US coal assets
Jeffrey Sparshott, Dow Jones Newswires | August 09, 2008
RIO Tinto said it was considering an initial public offering for its US coal business instead of an outright sale to another company.
The global miner has targeted the sale of $US10 billion ($11.2 billion) in assets this year and has said it will sell at least $US15 billion in total as it defends itself against a hostile bid from BHP Billiton.
Rio Tinto subsidiary Cloud Peak Energy, based in Gillette, Wyoming, filed an IPO prospectus with US Securities and Exchange Commission.
The filing lists a maximum offering price of $US1 billion, though a company spokesman noted that figure is used to determine a filing fee and doesn't indicate the ultimate proceeds.
A price range would be established before the actual sale, the spokesman added.
Last year ABN Amro estimated the sale value of Rio Tinto's US coal assets at $US4.1 billion, though prices for the commodity have since more than doubled year-on-year.
Cloud Peak produced 132.3 million tonnes of coal in 2007, making it the second-largest producer in the US by volume.
Rio Tinto chief financial officer Guy Elliott said Rio Tinto continues to explore the possible sale of some or all of its US coal assets as part of the group-wide divestment program, as well as the IPO option.
"Both options are being explored in the interests of maximizing shareholder value," he said in a statement.
Rio Tinto in July said it sold its Kintyre uranium project in Western Australia for $US495 million, taking total asset sales so far to $US2.94 billion.
Rio Tinto has said proceeds will help pay down the $US40 billion in debt it took on to fund its $US38.1 billion takeover of aluminium producer Alcan.
Rio Tinto has rejected BHP Billiton's $US147 billion, all-equity proposed bid
Gloucester Coal sees earnings up 30pc
Alex Wilson, Dow Jones Newswires | August 11, 2008
GLOUCESTER Coal expects 2008 net earnings to be 30 per cent higher after it settled coking coal prices with Japanese customers.
The miner (http://www.gloucestercoal.com.au/) (ASX: GCL) said it has now settled contract prices for coking coal with Japanese customers at levels more than 270 per cent higher than the previous year.
Chief executive Rob Lord said the prices, which would be back paid for shipments made since April 1, represented an excellent result for the miner.
"It is a reflection of the buoyant coking coal market in general, and strong demand for Gloucester's particular semi-hard coking coal product," he said in a statement.
The company’s 2008 financial year ended on June 30.
Shares of Gloucester were down 3.9 per cent at $10.41 by late afternoon in sharply weaker resources sector after a slide in commodity prices offshore last Friday.
The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index was 0.6 per cent higher.
Huang Chung
07-10-2008, 08:28 PM
Gloucester Coal sees earnings up 30pc
Alex Wilson, Dow Jones Newswires | August 11, 2008
GLOUCESTER Coal expects 2008 net earnings to be 30 per cent higher after it settled coking coal prices with Japanese customers.
The miner (http://www.gloucestercoal.com.au/) (ASX: GCL) said it has now settled contract prices for coking coal with Japanese customers at levels more than 270 per cent higher than the previous year.
Chief executive Rob Lord said the prices, which would be back paid for shipments made since April 1, represented an excellent result for the miner.
"It is a reflection of the buoyant coking coal market in general, and strong demand for Gloucester's particular semi-hard coking coal product," he said in a statement.
The company’s 2008 financial year ended on June 30.
Shares of Gloucester were down 3.9 per cent at $10.41 by late afternoon in sharply weaker resources sector after a slide in commodity prices offshore last Friday.
The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index was 0.6 per cent higher.
Bought some today at $4.90....been dropping like a stone over the last few days. SRL also being hit hard at the moment.
SEC, I'd value your current thoughts on the sector.
Huang Chung
08-10-2008, 08:42 PM
Bought some today at $4.90....been dropping like a stone over the last few days.
Well, that was a great move....:(
Mental note.....take more notice of what Phaedrus posts in future....
shasta
08-10-2008, 08:44 PM
Well, that was a great move....:(
Mental note.....take more notice of what Phaedrus posts in future....
Your not alone, it took me long enough to learn!
Lets the grizzlies roam & strike when they go hibernate!
Huang Chung
10-10-2008, 09:40 PM
Gloucester Coal management obviously think the fall in their share price has been overdone......
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00889411
COLIN
30-07-2010, 11:40 PM
There doesn't seem to be a separate thread for this little fellow, which I have stumbled across. They recently purchased L & M Coal's Buller Development Project, which apparently consists of the same high grade seam that Solid Energy mines at Stockton. A recent share placement was well supported, so they say - and at 13c the buyers will be pretty happy with the current sp (25c) I would imagine. They also have a 20% shareholder which is listed on the HK Exchange.
Read all about it in today's Activities Report.
Indicators look good, and buying versus selling orders are strong, so I have bought in today, but I will need to keep a close watch on developments. Anyone else a holder?
macduffy
03-08-2010, 01:57 PM
Hi Colin.
I like the look of BTU and the Buller project so I've joined you there!
I see they also bought the Black Diamond mines in Kentucky a few months ago. Around 100m recoverable reserves of (supposedly) high quality coal but BTU will only fully develop the operation as/when markets improve.
I'll be riding this one with a fairly tight stop-loss.
macduffy
18-08-2010, 01:22 PM
Interim DFS report confirms the viability of the Buller Coal project.
http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100818/pdf/31ryp4mt2nvf2f.pdf
macduffy
25-08-2010, 08:35 PM
Encouraging to see that new director Rob Lord has bought 217,000 shares on market.
mark100
11-02-2011, 02:32 PM
With NEC about to be taken out and BND another candidate in the next 12 months I need some more cheap aussie coal plays with low market caps, a reasonable amount of cash with some JORC resources or those with a good chance of getting a resource quickly.
SMR has run hard since it's IPO, they have some thermal resources (quality not so good?) and recently got hold of some permits prospective for coking coal. Market Cap diluted for in the money options is a bit high at $176m I think. $24m cash in the bank.
New listing CLR has gone mad although its a coking coal play. Cash in bank of $9m, fully diluted market cap is $215m. They have a coking coal resource of 92Mt (similar to NEC who are about to be taken over for $240m yet also have extensive thermal resources and are only 12-18 months of mining the coking coal)
GUF has me baffled. Diluted Market Cap of $325m, $48m cash and no defined resources yet
MTE looks good I think. Market Cap is $58m, cash of $15m, chinese backing and some thermal underground coal resources of over 500 Mt. Bundi is a 381Mt resource and is immediately to the south of NEC's Elimatta project (NHC currently bidding for) and near Xstrata's Wandoan holdings. I bought a few earlier this week when they got a drilling contractor signed up.
BWD also show promise, mainly because of Noble, its 25% shareholder. Market Cap is $43m with $10m cash. BWD has no JORC defined resources yet but have several permits in the Surat, Bowen and Gaililee basins so with Noble on board its probably only a matter of time before they prove something up. Also bought a few of these this week.
lewinsky
11-02-2011, 02:46 PM
Hi Mark,
COK could be worth running your ruler over.
They have $24 mill in the bank, and provided they dry out after the Queensland summer should be producing.
I was a holder but sold out and now have MTE and CCC as my coal holdings.
Stumpynuts
11-02-2011, 03:11 PM
With NEC about to be taken out and BND another candidate in the next 12 months I need some more cheap aussie coal plays with low market caps, a reasonable amount of cash with some JORC resources or those with a good chance of getting a resource quickly.
SMR has run hard since it's IPO, they have some thermal resources (quality not so good?) and recently got hold of some permits prospective for coking coal. Market Cap diluted for in the money options is a bit high at $176m I think. $24m cash in the bank.
New listing CLR has gone mad although its a coking coal play. Cash in bank of $9m, fully diluted market cap is $215m. They have a coking coal resource of 92Mt (similar to NEC who are about to be taken over for $240m yet also have extensive thermal resources and are only 12-18 months of mining the coking coal)
GUF has me baffled. Diluted Market Cap of $325m, $48m cash and no defined resources yet
MTE looks good I think. Market Cap is $58m, cash of $15m, chinese backing and some thermal underground coal resources of over 500 Mt. Bundi is a 381Mt resource and is immediately to the south of NEC's Elimatta project (NHC currently bidding for) and near Xstrata's Wandoan holdings. I bought a few earlier this week when they got a drilling contractor signed up.
BWD also show promise, mainly because of Noble, its 25% shareholder. Market Cap is $43m with $10m cash. BWD has no JORC defined resources yet but have several permits in the Surat, Bowen and Gaililee basins so with Noble on board its probably only a matter of time before they prove something up. Also bought a few of these this week.
Hi Mark,
Universal Coal (UNV) is both thermal coal and coking coal, fairly large resource amounts. $17mill cash, aiming to start producing midway this year. Market cap is moviing between roughly $80 - 100 mill atm.
Check the investor report - I forgot the project name, but one of their projects further to the north is situated close to RioTinto.
shasta
11-02-2011, 03:14 PM
With NEC about to be taken out and BND another candidate in the next 12 months I need some more cheap aussie coal plays with low market caps, a reasonable amount of cash with some JORC resources or those with a good chance of getting a resource quickly.
SMR has run hard since it's IPO, they have some thermal resources (quality not so good?) and recently got hold of some permits prospective for coking coal. Market Cap diluted for in the money options is a bit high at $176m I think. $24m cash in the bank.
New listing CLR has gone mad although its a coking coal play. Cash in bank of $9m, fully diluted market cap is $215m. They have a coking coal resource of 92Mt (similar to NEC who are about to be taken over for $240m yet also have extensive thermal resources and are only 12-18 months of mining the coking coal)
GUF has me baffled. Diluted Market Cap of $325m, $48m cash and no defined resources yet
MTE looks good I think. Market Cap is $58m, cash of $15m, chinese backing and some thermal underground coal resources of over 500 Mt. Bundi is a 381Mt resource and is immediately to the south of NEC's Elimatta project (NHC currently bidding for) and near Xstrata's Wandoan holdings. I bought a few earlier this week when they got a drilling contractor signed up.
BWD also show promise, mainly because of Noble, its 25% shareholder. Market Cap is $43m with $10m cash. BWD has no JORC defined resources yet but have several permits in the Surat, Bowen and Gaililee basins so with Noble on board its probably only a matter of time before they prove something up. Also bought a few of these this week.
A few i've noticed over the last few days some already have threads & have been mentioned, ADD, ZYL, PZC, GNM, RCI, JAT, BWD
I do like the looks of MTE (as its well funded), but for bulk commodities i like AQA, its a ~$3.5b market cap with Coal & Iron Ore + Manganese but with a huge pipeline of projects & well funded for growth
macduffy
16-03-2011, 02:17 PM
It occurred to me yesterday that coal-fired power plants should come back into fashion now to some extent and that perhaps I should do a bit of research on thermal coal producers. So did a lot of others, it seems, and a lot of recently trashed coalies have made a strong comeback today!
Have by no means done enough work on this but I bought a few COK today to get a foot in the door. Others that will bear looking at, at least by me, include SMR, although it's a long way from producing at this stage, UNV and AQA.
Any others?
mark100
16-03-2011, 02:40 PM
BND
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8256-BND-Bandanna-Energy&highlight=bnd
Huang Chung
16-03-2011, 08:40 PM
CPL
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CPL&E=ASX&N=531094
Also, just admitted into the ASX200.
macduffy
17-03-2011, 08:38 AM
Thanks, mark and Huang Chung.
I knew I should have moved a bit quicker. BND's sp up 16% yesterday, CPL up 9%!
Huang Chung
17-03-2011, 09:23 AM
Macduffy....I've been buying CPL since last week from the low $1.80s (i.e. pre earthquake/Tsunami). Ave around $1.74. The Japanese earthquake just made them all the more cheaper, and probably somewhat irrationally so, as, firstly, it seems highly unlikely more nuclear plants will be built there, given what's just happened, and secondly, Japan is one of CPLs main target markets.
Japan is certainly in need of more power generation, given they have just lost, at the very least, 4 and possibly 6 reactors. Goodness knows what the longer term implications will be for similar nuclear plants will be, especially those in earthquake zones or located near the coast.
So, personally speaking, I reckon it's still well and truely a buy, even with yesterday's bounce.
Of course, as always...DYOR.
kiwitrev
17-03-2011, 09:43 AM
Hi Macduffy
Another you could look at on ASX is CWK (Coalworks). 3-4 yrs from production in Hunter Valley from 3 sites, one of which is planned for Clean Coal Plant - see their w/s www.coalworks.com.au - S/P has recently got back close to float price from big lows. Almost 1Billion measured tonnage, J/V with Itochu and recently Boardwalk (Nathan Tinkler-he always seems to pick them correctly). CWK also in J/V in Indonesia and soon to distribute 1:8 to existing CWK S/H once vehicle Orpheus Energy is listed. Also on CWK register is Bank of America. Highly touted by The Speculator. Worth a look.
JBmurc
17-03-2011, 10:34 AM
CPL
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CPL&E=ASX&N=531094
Also, just admitted into the ASX200.
yeah too right HC CPL look a very good long term hold coal looks likely to back in favour if the world wants power without more nuclear the huge majorty of USA power comes from coal so right next door a bonus ...
macduffy
17-03-2011, 12:00 PM
Plenty to look at and think about here!
BND and CPL look to have the goods but they're both some way from production, BND still in pre-feasibility study mode, CPL awaiting feasibility with first production planned for 2014 at this stage. Might have to have a few of each!
Of the current producers, CCC looks interesting with increasing volumes mined recently and more being planned.But needs more research as far as I'm concerned. Not sure how this "partnership" arrangement works in South Africa?
jennym
17-03-2011, 12:35 PM
the guys in clr are as cunning as maori dogs: they issued a trading halt just prior to the japan earthquake for a capital raising and issued a suspension from official quotation today.
clr stays up and wal goes down alot less than it would have otherwise.
mark100
17-03-2011, 12:43 PM
the guys in clr are as cunning as maori dogs: they issued a trading halt just prior to the japan earthquake for a capital raising and issued a suspension from official quotation today.
clr stays up and wal goes down alot less than it would have otherwise.
haha yes you're right. And CLR was probably ripe for profit taking as well
shasta
18-03-2011, 12:00 AM
Plenty to look at and think about here!
BND and CPL look to have the goods but they're both some way from production, BND still in pre-feasibility study mode, CPL awaiting feasibility with first production planned for 2014 at this stage. Might have to have a few of each!
Of the current producers, CCC looks interesting with increasing volumes mined recently and more being planned.But needs more research as far as I'm concerned. Not sure how this "partnership" arrangement works in South Africa?
If your looking at the bigger end of town, i personally like AQA, but cast your eye over MTE (its in Huang Chungs backyard) & looks promising & well funded
mark100
18-03-2011, 12:57 AM
MTE looks good I think. Market Cap is $58m, cash of $15m, chinese backing and some thermal underground coal resources of over 500 Mt. Bundi is a 381Mt resource and is immediately to the south of NEC's Elimatta project (NHC currently bidding for) and near Xstrata's Wandoan holdings. I bought a few earlier this week when they got a drilling contractor signed up.
Yes I like MTE too although don't hold at present. I will once the market calms down again or they get cheaper. Earlier stage company than say BND
Huang Chung
18-03-2011, 01:23 AM
If your looking at the bigger end of town, i personally like AQA, but cast your eye over MTE (its in Huang Chungs backyard) & looks promising & well funded
Personally speaking, I would have preferred a pool in the back yard, but thems the breaks......
shasta
18-03-2011, 02:11 AM
Personally speaking, I would have preferred a pool in the back yard, but thems the breaks......
That was a pun surely? you Queensland folk must have a bit of water lying around still?
drillfix
18-03-2011, 02:23 AM
That was a pun surely? you Queensland folk must have a bit of water lying around still?
Plenty of water laying around indeed Shasta.
In fact the government and Councils over here privatised the water so there is now a private water company BILLING every house hold a minimum of $800 bucks a year just to have water connected and with a base amount of water (which one would had thought would be free) but no, they charge for it now if excess is used.
Crime of the century I reckon. And meanwhile, when some days it becomes rainy we can see wheelie garbage bins floating down the road like boats, but we dont get any credit for that because mother nature puts it straight back into the dam, do they? No they dont, COUNCILS ARE CROOKS, simple as that.
We vote in conventional governments and councils so they find NEW WAYS to adapt to how to Legally ROB PEOPLE and these people vote for them so the whole system needs a complete overhaul IMO. We still have 17th century laws to some degree working for us in 20th century world.
Not wise this planet nor the Greedy MoFo' that live on it, who do not actually care for the masses or the SMART way of having things done which always does not involved GREED.
I believe we are ALL (or nearly all) on a unsustainable track to a destiny that = no better than the 10th century should the way of this world continue.
/end soap box anti gov speech
mark100
15-04-2011, 02:54 PM
MTE looks good I think. Market Cap is $58m, cash of $15m, chinese backing and some thermal underground coal resources of over 500 Mt. Bundi is a 381Mt resource and is immediately to the south of NEC's Elimatta project (NHC currently bidding for) and near Xstrata's Wandoan holdings. I bought a few earlier this week when they got a drilling contractor signed up.
MTE is starting to get a move on
mark100
12-05-2011, 11:56 AM
MTE has upgraded its Inferred Resource at Bundi.
All up MTE has Inferred Coal Resources of 750Mt, with the majority at Bundi, which is just to the south of Xstrata's Wandoan project and NEC's Elimatta project (now majority owned by New Hope)
With an EV of $57m (40c share price), MTE is trading on an EV/t multiple of $0.076 and that is only counting Underground Coal Resources, not coal gasificationb resources.
drillfix
12-05-2011, 12:54 PM
Can somebody with some responsibility please rename the thread to Coal Juniors sector thread or something?, as sometimes, it is very misleading.
Coal Juniors starting to Fire is a past tense thing, and for those who happen to click and read they will discover that its a history report or potentially a trap for buying some stocks at their tops.
I am completely in favour of Coal Juniors yet back to the title, it is a permanent title here of which its suggestion is wrong, IMO.
airedale
12-05-2011, 08:10 PM
Agree, DF, a lot has changed since 2004 when the thread started. Original poster "good news" could change it if he is still around.
mark100
12-05-2011, 08:20 PM
Agree, DF, a lot has changed since 2004 when the thread started. Original poster "good news" could change it if he is still around.
According to his profile he hasn't logged on since 2005!
macduffy
12-05-2011, 08:30 PM
Followers of MTE will be interested to learn that the independent expert's (BDO) report on the Jindal bid for RCI - doomed to failure by the way - computes an extremely favourable EV/Total Resource number of 0.09 for MTE in a listing of comparable coal exploration companies. The others ranged from 0.27 to 2.51.
This would be before the Inferred Resource upgrade referred to above by mark.
I'll have to take a closer look!
drillfix
12-05-2011, 09:31 PM
Agree, DF, a lot has changed since 2004 when the thread started. Original poster "good news" could change it if he is still around.
Glad its not just me there airedale.
Perhaps we can just report it to the Admin or a Mod and they can just quickly edit it.
Shasta you know a mod, can you give them heads up on removing the Starting to Fire part of the thread name?
shasta
12-05-2011, 09:52 PM
Glad its not just me there airedale.
Perhaps we can just report it to the Admin or a Mod and they can just quickly edit it.
Shasta you know a mod, can you give them heads up on removing the Starting to Fire part of the thread name?
What do you want it changed to?
Better? :)
upside_umop
12-05-2011, 10:25 PM
I think it's a good name. Coal Juniors can always be firing as they're starting up...then they become producers.
There have been a few coal juniors that have 'fired' over the last wee while.
BTU
HUN
AFR
To name a few...
Well, I hope the thread keeps to it's nature :D There have been some great stocks brought up on here.
drillfix
13-05-2011, 04:33 AM
What do you want it changed to?
Better? :)
As usual, Excellent work Shasta.
I (as others would also) find that it is helpful in mind and focus when things kept a bit more in context on post headings, for both reading and keeping on topic.
Thanks again good friend :)
drillfix
13-05-2011, 04:39 AM
There have been a few coal juniors that have 'fired' over the last wee while.
BTU
HUN
AFR
To name a few...
Well, I hope the thread keeps to it's nature :D There have been some great stocks brought up on here.
Me too there UU, have been kicking myself to some degree for missing many of these and am not up to speed in the cycle of things where things are at with the sector.
It would be great if someone could give a breakdown of the status of things at present, as in At Value, Over Valued, Under Valued, Extremely Under Value, Extremely Over Valued etc etc.
Sometimes I just like the moves of a stock and dont really catch the full ride hence why I feel like kicking myself yet in some ways, I am damned if I do and damned if I dont so its an awkward situation, but nonetheless it would be good to know such status of where things are at with both individual stocks and the sector as a whole.
mark100
13-05-2011, 05:30 PM
MTE has upgraded its Inferred Resource at Bundi.
All up MTE has Inferred Coal Resources of 750Mt, with the majority at Bundi, which is just to the south of Xstrata's Wandoan project and NEC's Elimatta project (now majority owned by New Hope)
With an EV of $57m (40c share price), MTE is trading on an EV/t multiple of $0.076 and that is only counting Underground Coal Resources, not coal gasificationb resources.
MTE really going on with it today. They have an exploration target for year end of 2.5-3 billion tonnes of inferred resources by the end of the year. Probably the cheapest coal stock I know of at present on an EV/t multiple, at least for a stock that has a resource close to the majors. Pity I didn't own a few more
macduffy
26-05-2011, 11:40 AM
Jindal have increased their offer for RCI to 30c.
Still a bit on the light side - BDO's independent valuation comes out at 36 - 62c.
http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110526/pdf/41yvy2pcwfrwnh.pdf
Disc: Holding RCI.
Huang Chung
08-06-2011, 08:13 PM
Think twice before leaping into an coal company with operations in Australia.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/coal-cant-be-exempt-from-carbon-tax-swan-20110608-1frxz.html
We've seriously got to get rid this mob of economic vandals.....
FarmerGeorge
08-06-2011, 10:56 PM
Quick query on coal junior developers for anyone with a bit of experience - Any holders of NuCoal (NCR) or anyone with a view on them? There seems to be some political risk around them getting on with the show, and I'm comfortable with that, but just looking for any other views.
Cheers,
fg
mark100
09-06-2011, 12:02 AM
Think twice before leaping into an coal company with operations in Australia.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/coal-cant-be-exempt-from-carbon-tax-swan-20110608-1frxz.html
We've seriously got to get rid this mob of economic vandals.....
All they want to do is increase government revenue under the guise of stopping climate change. Plus a bit of wealth redistribution along the way
shasta
09-06-2011, 12:20 AM
Think twice before leaping into an coal company with operations in Australia.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/coal-cant-be-exempt-from-carbon-tax-swan-20110608-1frxz.html
We've seriously got to get rid this mob of economic vandals.....
Stumbled across NAE - coal in south america, but other interests too
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NAE&E=ASX&N=356020
macduffy
13-06-2011, 08:46 AM
Has anyone looked at or have a view on Rey Resources - REY?
Thermal coal resource in the Canning Basin, WA; recently proven up a maiden reserve; Definitive Feasibility Study due for completion by the end of this month.
Recent presentation:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110610/pdf/41z4xrbvztnffr.pdf
Disc: Not holding.
shasta
15-06-2011, 05:27 PM
MTE - Presentation RBS Morgans Emerging Coal Conference
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MTE&E=ASX&N=232656
MetroCoal - 2011
• Bundi Resource upgrades
• Columboola JV – first JORC resource
• Surat Basin Rail – further news expected
• JV partner for EPC 1164/1251
• Scoping Study for Bundi Underground mine
• We expect to achieve the exploration target of at least 2.5 Billion tonnes* by December 2011
MTE has ~$13m cash
shasta
14-09-2011, 07:19 PM
Thought this thread might be suitable for this link, given the timeframes etc
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/asian-power-surge-to-see-no-let-up-as-thermal-demand-goes-gangbusters/story-e6frg9ex-1226134281066
Personally i like NHC (esp the NEC assets) as a producer, & AQA + EOC in the near term producing coal sector, with there thermal & coking coal projects (thats IF AQA stops sueing every JV partner they work with!)
I'm sure there are many other decent near term coal producers with thermal coal main projects, (those also with coking coal projects are of interest)
Use this thead to discuss other coal stocks that could benefit within the timeframes of the initial article
mark100
14-09-2011, 10:03 PM
I like NHC too, especially with the growth potential they have added via the NEC acquisition (they got my shares too cheaply).
Also BND share price has been hammered with a strategic review non-result followed by a discounted rights issue to fund port alloacations. The coal hasn't gone anyware though so sentiment will turn at some stage.
AZT, WHC, MTE, COK, SME and EOC are all on my list well
shasta
14-09-2011, 10:53 PM
I like NHC too, especially with the growth potential they have added via the NEC acquisition (they got my shares too cheaply).
Also BND share price has been hammered with a strategic review non-result followed by a discounted rights issue to fund port alloacations. The coal hasn't gone anyware though so sentiment will turn at some stage.
AZT, WHC, MTE, COK, SME and EOC are all on my list well
Thanx BND was one i had been following, cudn't remember it, MTE i know thru MLM
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