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Penfold
13-08-2009, 07:47 PM
Any thoughts... seems to suffer from a lack of analyst coverage.

Results today suggest it is fairly priced (perhaps a little over). But whats in the back of my mind, is how much of a take over target it is becoming (again).

macduffy
13-08-2009, 07:53 PM
Any thoughts... seems to suffer from a lack of analyst coverage.

Results today suggest it is fairly priced (perhaps a little over). But whats in the back of my mind, is how much of a take over target it is becoming (again).

Yes, it's a perennial target. And Onesteel will no doubt take them out when the time is right - for Onesteel, that is.

Meanwhile, they're untouchable by anyone else.

Disc: Long time holder.

Jim
13-08-2009, 09:09 PM
Any thought of how much One steel is offering to buy up STU ??

macduffy
14-08-2009, 07:02 AM
Any thought of how much One steel is offering to buy up STU ??

Anybody's guess at this stage I would think.

I doubt that the earlier mooted offer, which was withdrawn at an early stage as I recall, would have any relevance now.

waikare
27-10-2009, 07:03 PM
Looking for an update, does One Steel still have Steel & Tube in their sights, today it's was last traded at $3.13

BRICKS
27-10-2009, 07:24 PM
Looking for an update, does One Steel still have Steel & Tube in their sights, today it's was last traded at $3.13

YOU will end up like macduffy old and still waiting for something to HAPPEN..

macduffy
27-10-2009, 07:33 PM
I don't see any sign that One Steel is in any hurry.

When long time CEO Nick Calavrias retired a few months ago he sold his shares, an indication to me that nothing's imminent. Meanwhile, STU is a good income stock with prospects of a payout sometime down the track when One Steel decides to take the rest of us out.

Penfold
27-10-2009, 09:12 PM
I did buy in after my initial post.

I will be buying more if it returns to under $3. Its a nice earner like MacDuffy said and is likely to increase its earnings as infrastructure spending increases. Then there is that takeover offer which will come one day. Hopefully before I am dead.

Alz99
31-05-2012, 03:00 PM
with the recent decline in this companies share price,

does any one know the factors behind the decline??

im thinking about buying

Silverlight
31-05-2012, 03:48 PM
with the recent decline in this companies share price,

does any one know the factors behind the decline??

im thinking about buying

Pays a nice fully imputed dividend yield, but is suffering from a weak local economy and construction industry.

Track it against Cavalier, Methven and Fletcher Building, and you will see the correlation. If you think the cycle will turn and this is the low end of their earnings cycle, then price them on mid cycle earnings and it looks like a good entry price.

Joshuatree
09-10-2012, 05:22 PM
Craigs are offering a placement at 15% discount.they have 25 mill shares.any opinions?thanks

Stranger_Danger
09-10-2012, 05:38 PM
Joshuatree - got a contact name/phone number re Craigs?

I've heard nothing yet but would be keen if you have details, have been slowly building a stake here.

Joshuatree
09-10-2012, 05:55 PM
Be great to share your knowledge i know little re the co.my adviser rang me

Stranger_Danger
09-10-2012, 05:58 PM
JT - There is a release under ARI : ASX, Arrium selling out. Have been waiting for this.

I would really appreciate if you could PM me the contact you have. I don't deal with Craigs and not having much luck reaching them.

Happy to post some STU opinions later, currently just trying to get some!

Joshuatree
09-10-2012, 06:29 PM
Am away fromcompand having probs with phone. Craigs in taura nga nz

macduffy
09-10-2012, 06:43 PM
There are about 88m STU shares on issue with ARI holding 50.3%. If Craigs have 25m to sell there is another 20m odd to be placed by someone else. Any ideas who might have the mandate? And what price STU might settle at after the placement?

macduffy
09-10-2012, 08:08 PM
From the SMH:

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/arrium-sells-nz-steel-for-74m-20121009-27b2x.html

Joshuatree
09-10-2012, 08:40 PM
Thanks guys i got a few.Craigs sold them in 40min.They may have more tomorrpw.

percy
10-10-2012, 08:39 AM
Thanks guys i got a few.Craigs sold them in 40min.They may have more tomorrpw.

Thanks for the heads up Joshuatree,but all gone.

Joshuatree
10-10-2012, 10:27 AM
Craigs correct no is 5770066. waiting for my broker to confirm re none or some more.am in oz so behind the times. Cheers

Ekrub
10-10-2012, 10:37 AM
Gee thanks Arrium/Onesteel/whatever, 17 cents wiped off the share price...a great last hurrah.

macduffy
10-10-2012, 11:40 AM
Sale price set at 2.05 ... and the market responds ... so much for the brokers saying you're getting them at a 25% discount ... By COB that discount may look a lot more like nadda.

I doubt whether ARI leaving the register will make any difference to STU's performance. In fact, it might even improve things not to have a big brother calling the shots eg more freedom to buy in best markets, not giving ARI products any particular preference. All in all, STU looks a better proposition to me, once the dust and SP settles.

winner69
10-10-2012, 12:30 PM
Gee thanks Arrium/Onesteel/whatever, 17 cents wiped off the share price...a great last hurrah.

Prob always was some full takeover premium in the price ans some were hoping that with the takeover activity around ARI suitors mig have been interested in STU as well

But ARI obviously felt STU was overvalued and took the opportunity to hock off some of the family silver

And the way FBU falling today STU would have Ben down as well

Stranger_Danger
10-10-2012, 12:41 PM
Prob always was some full takeover premium in the price ans some were hoping that with the takeover activity around ARI suitors mig have been interested in STU as well

But ARI obviously felt STU was overvalued and took the opportunity to hock off some of the family silver

And the way FBU falling today STU would have Ben down as well

The odds of a takeover, just went up, not down. (not that I want to see a takeover anytime soon)

Previously, we had a major shareholder who was in full control, but unable to take it over due to its own financial issues. The child was a lot stronger than the parent!

Also, I wouldn't assume the sale says anything about Arrium's valuation of STU, or even that they really thought much about it. Financially distressed seller being hounded by an acquirer needing cash.

CJ
10-10-2012, 12:45 PM
Looks like they want to get back into the NZX50. Wont be hard if FPA drops out.

macduffy
10-10-2012, 04:12 PM
Not a "big boy" but I picked up a few more on market today at $2.21.

Hoop
10-10-2012, 05:52 PM
The odds of a takeover, just went up, not down. (not that I want to see a takeover anytime soon)

Previously, we had a major shareholder who was in full control, but unable to take it over due to its own financial issues. The child was a lot stronger than the parent!

Also, I wouldn't assume the sale says anything about Arrium's valuation of STU, or even that they really thought much about it. Financially distressed seller being hounded by an acquirer needing cash.

My thoughts exactly


Not a "big boy" but I picked up a few more on market today at $2.21.

so did I....I put some money on those thoughts..... but I picked the higher point 2.23 :p

Stranger_Danger
10-10-2012, 06:02 PM
And I'm between the two of you at 2.22.

Baddarcy
07-11-2012, 12:43 PM
Little jump with today's news that STU is replacing FPA in the top 50.

Minerbarejet
27-11-2012, 07:58 PM
:mad ;:Check out the disclosure announcement - Acc gone down by a million shares for 219,000. pardon? Well thats what I see anyway.
HAND

Hoop
28-11-2012, 08:03 AM
:mad ;:Check out the disclosure announcement - Acc gone down by a million shares for 219,000. pardon? Well thats what I see anyway.
HAND

Got this off the DB site.
Don't understand why they reduced their holdings....probably the reasons why I keep paying extra each year in levies.
My view is that STU is showing a very slight uptrend this year off a 210ish bottom of the cycle.

Ohh...while I'm at ...A visit to the medical clinic usually costs me $17 ...I went yesterday because an old work neck injury flared up and I have to pay $37....why so much this time?? I asked...she said you have to pay!!!! ACC $20 for the visit......go figure!!!!!!!



For this disclosure,--


(a) Total number held in class: 5,487,534


(b) Total in class: 88,427,240


(c) Total percentage held in class: 6.206%


For last disclosure,--


(a) Total number held in class: 6,404,209


(b) Total in class: 88,427,240


(c) Total percentage held in class: 7.242%



Disc: hold STU

Hoop
28-11-2012, 10:47 AM
Update chart: note ACC sell down on TA buy signals

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/stu27112012.png

Minerbarejet
28-11-2012, 11:16 AM
​(a) Total number held in class: 5,487,534
(b) Total in class: 88,427,240
(c) Total percentage held in class: 6.206%
For last disclosure,--
(a) Total number held in class: 6,404,209
(b) Total in class: 88,427,240
(c) Total percentage held in class: 7.242%
Details of transactions and events giving rise to relevant event
Details of the transactions or other events requiring disclosure under the
instructions to this form:
Sale of 100,000 shares for net consideration of NZD $219,340 on 23rd November
2012:confused:

Hoop
28-11-2012, 12:32 PM
​(a) Total number held in class: 5,487,534
(b) Total in class: 88,427,240
(c) Total percentage held in class: 6.206%
For last disclosure,--
(a) Total number held in class: 6,404,209
(b) Total in class: 88,427,240
(c) Total percentage held in class: 7.242%
Details of transactions and events giving rise to relevant event
Details of the transactions or other events requiring disclosure under the
instructions to this form:
Sale of 100,000 shares for net consideration of NZD $219,340 on 23rd November
2012:confused:

yes I saw this too...where did the other 900,000 go?

I think it's typo error...as it shows up on the volume chart (unfortunately it's hidden under my yellow line on the post chart above)

sideline
28-11-2012, 01:38 PM
Maybe they only need to make an announcement once their holding changes by 1% of outstanding shares -
so the first 900000 were sold days earlier, but weren't enough change to trigger an announcement.

Minerbarejet
28-11-2012, 06:20 PM
probably right - it just seemed a bit weird

CJ
29-11-2012, 09:05 AM
It could be a very interesting time ahead for STU & it's shareholders.It was over $2.4 before Arrium sold out. That didn't effect the underlying business at all so in theory, we should be heading back up there.

It has now re-entered the NZX index.

Any sell under that is probably just those that got the cheap allocation locking in their profits.

Am I missing anything?

Joshuatree
29-11-2012, 09:57 AM
I do everything thru Craigs atp. Pays off(having a broker) when you get a placement that works in your favor( igot re 10,000 STU @ $2.05 could have got a lot more). But yes the commission they charge over a year may negate that.

macduffy
15-02-2013, 12:11 PM
STU interim NPAT up 14%.

"Overall, we expect the results for the second half of the year to be ahead of the first six months." .........says the company.

Joshuatree
15-02-2013, 12:36 PM
Thanks mac , i was going to put the same line in:). good result. a keepa atp, cheers JT

Hoop
15-02-2013, 01:23 PM
Post #36 Update chart: Genius's at Work note ACC sell down on TA buy signals...... sold 1,000,000 at $2.19 on 23 Nov 2012

shhh............. don't tell ACC

intraday price $2.65

winner69
15-02-2013, 03:08 PM
shhh............. don't tell ACC

intraday price $2.65

But hoop ACC are gurus and what they do id great .... and if they buy some more of anything every gets excited as it is sign whatever they bought must be a great company .... or at least they wet themselves as somebody said on the HNZ thread as ACC buying confirms their own individual faith in a company

Must be fun being the ACC man with his zillions to onvest ..... he has shares in almost every company listed and when you have so many zillions as he has to play with it doesn't take too much effort to get 5% of any company ..... once read he has 3% odd of the NZX market cap or something like that

With STU didn't they just help out when all these shares came on the market ... had no intention of holding them for any length of time .... still has quite a few STU anyway but he helped his mates out in an orderly distributiuon of the STU shares that came on the market

Lizard
15-02-2013, 06:40 PM
Nice result. Moved my valuation out to $2.93 with upside.

winner69
16-08-2013, 07:48 AM
Reasonable result from STU and probably a precursor as to what FBU will report

Commentary is a bit all over the place .... I think it said a slow recovery underway but nothing fantastic as yet but Chch is really getting underway so next year will be heaps better

Joshuatree
16-08-2013, 08:04 AM
Pretty steady. Thank you Arrium for the cheap shares a while back and Sparky for reccoing i take them when i was cold called by craigs.

Oh my God !! Do we have a ghost writer amongst us? That last sentence says"the company is well positioned"!!!:eek2:

percy
16-08-2013, 08:14 AM
Pretty steady. Thank you Arrium for the cheap shares a while back and Sparky for reccoing i take them when i was cold called by craigs.

Oh my God !! Do we have a ghost writer amongst us? That last sentence says"the company is well positioned"!!!:eek2:

Yes I had a laugh myself.!!!
As Winner69 pointed out the commentary is a bit all over the place.
Strong balance sheet,business in good shape,but I am holding off adding to my holding for some reason.
That didn't take long.! Decided to add to my holding.!! Increased divie did it.!!!

CJ
16-08-2013, 08:54 AM
What are the chances it will drop out of nzx50 with the addition of MRP, ZEL?, meridian?

I sold out and now it looks like I was premature. Will have to back and see what I replaced it with to see it it was a good call or not - definitely other shares I should have sold first!

percy
16-08-2013, 10:36 AM
Well I have added to my holding at $2.55.
Am 'well positioned".!!! lol.

Hoop
16-08-2013, 10:45 AM
Strangely STU is suffering technical weakness atm...Could it be from the possiblily of a NZX50 correction looming tempering investor enthusiasm from this goodish result from a company mostly invisible from the investors spotlights... The result being released on friday probably doesn't help either...

oh well Time will tell

Hoop
16-08-2013, 10:49 AM
Well I have added to my holding at $2.55.
Am 'well positioned".!!! lol.
Have you?? ...Hmmm ...Not showing up on my depth screen..I'll be angry if there is a feed delay...I can only the 25000 SP at 10.10 am atm with 3 buyers in the queue at 255 and a seller at 257 ..the liquidity is low...

blackcap
16-08-2013, 11:02 AM
Have you?? ...Hmmm ...Not showing up on my depth screen..I'll be angry if there is a feed delay...I can only the 25000 SP at 10.10 am atm with 3 buyers in the queue at 255 and a seller at 257 ..the liquidity is low...

I dare say Percy will be the SP at 2.55 :)

Hoop
16-08-2013, 11:12 AM
I dare say Percy will be the SP at 2.55 :)

Hmmmm.... that 25000 was an off market transaction....
ahh haa...the lunchtime crowd have arrived ...1 buyer has cleaned out the 257 seller..{edit}..yurrr in the blue Percy.

percy
16-08-2013, 11:13 AM
I dare say Percy will be the SP at 2.55 :)

Only part of it.I added 5,000 to the 5,000 shares I already own.
I was impressed with the divie,the fact they have improved their margins by reducing costs.The Christchurch rebuild will happen, as will increased building activity in Auckland,and I feel STU is "well positioned" to benefit from the strengthen NZ economy.

bulltrap
16-08-2013, 11:50 PM
What are the chances it will drop out of nzx50 with the addition of MRP, ZEL?, meridian?

I'd say it won't, since the loss of Arrium as cornerstone shareholder should have increased the 'free float' holding which is key to the NZX50 rankings.

Also, companies already on the index get priority to stay in (to a point), for the sake of stability.

The index methodology is here:

https://static.nzx.com/files/static/NZX-Equity-Indices-Methodology.pdf

I haven't been able to find the actual NZX company scores and rankings anywhere, but you could (with effort) make a good guess based on publicly-available info. (It's partly subjective and at NZX's discretion; for one thing they get to decide which major shareholdings are 'strategic' and hence excluded from free float.)

Oh, and MRP's already on the NZX50.

CJ
17-08-2013, 07:26 AM
I could be wrong but wasn't it Artimus sellout that allowed them to get in.

They are in the high 40's on the list. EDIT: this puts them at 48 : http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9112-NZX50-constituent-companies-as-at-close-on-25th-March-2013

Existing shares do get priority but those ones I mention would bump them. Since there is 3, that would push out STU unless it had gained a place.

SYN may also be in the top 50 but its big shareholders may mean it doesn't have the free float.

bulltrap
17-08-2013, 04:17 PM
I could be wrong but wasn't it Artimus sellout that allowed them to get in.

They are in the high 40's on the list. EDIT: this puts them at 48 : http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9112-NZX50-constituent-companies-as-at-close-on-25th-March-2013

Existing shares do get priority but those ones I mention would bump them. Since there is 3, that would push out STU unless it had gained a place.

SYN may also be in the top 50 but its big shareholders may mean it doesn't have the free float.

Yes, it is looking a bit marginal for STU... :(

Share price weakness for HLG should rank it below STU now, which makes PPL, HLG, STU and AMP next in line for the chop (in order) - by my very rough reckoning.

So Meridian and Z Energy would push out PPL and HLG, but what's the third one again?

bulltrap
21-08-2013, 01:42 PM
With the FBU results out already today, we can compare P/E between FBU and STU for 2013FY:

FBU: 18.4 @ $8.74
STU: 15.7 @ $2.76

FBU's is 17% higher than STU. No small bikkies. I'm curious to know why that is. Just a 'blue chip' premium for FBU perhaps?

Relatively speaking, I can see a few factors in STU's favour - projected iron ore price decline, less exposure in weak markets (Australia, Europe), maybe better upside from Christchurch rebuild (large construction slower to kick off than residential rebuild), some chance of a new major shareholder stepping up.

Disclaimer: Proud STU holder

blackcap
21-08-2013, 02:30 PM
With the FBU results out already today, we can compare P/E between FBU and STU for 2013FY:

FBU: 18.4 @ $8.74
STU: 15.7 @ $2.76

FBU's is 17% higher than STU. No small bikkies. I'm curious to know why that is. Just a 'blue chip' premium for FBU perhaps?

Relatively speaking, I can see a few factors in STU's favour - projected iron ore price decline, less exposure in weak markets (Australia, Europe), maybe better upside from Christchurch rebuild (large construction slower to kick off than residential rebuild), some chance of a new major shareholder stepping up.

Disclaimer: Proud STU holder

Could it be that FBU are coming off a lower base and that their profits looking forward are expected to improve more? I too am a STU holder.

percy
12-09-2013, 01:51 PM
Well I have added to my holding at $2.55.
Am 'well positioned".!!! lol.

Nice seeing a buyer at $2.78 ex dividend.!!

winner69
13-11-2013, 04:22 PM
ASM today reasonably positive outlook-



Finally the outlook - despite some on-going global uncertainties, the New Zealand economy appears to be tracking relatively well, compared to others. This is underscored by latest business confidence indices.
Certainly the construction sector is looking positive. Numbers of consents continue to improve. The government has indicated substantial expenditure, both in conjunction with Christchurch City Council on anchor projects, and for other key infrastructure projects across New Zealand.

Other sectors may not appear to be as bullish as the construction sector, and manufacturing looks flat, but we do expect to see improvements in volumes. This is confirmed by the first 4 months of trading of the current financial year.

The industry remains intensively competitive and Steel & Tube does need to find a way to improve margins, therefore making re-investment more attractive.

The Company’s now diverse shareholding allows greater freedom to pursue opportunities in this regard.

Internally, as you have already heard, the company continues to transform, building a solid platform for growth and improved performance.

It is in very good shape and remains well positioned for the future.


So they are well positioned but I think they should be being better than what they say are doing.

Heck DLX creaming it in NZ with all this Auckland and Chch avtivity according to their full year ....maybe STU turn to come

percy
13-11-2013, 04:41 PM
So as I do not upset Paper Tiger I can not say they are "well positioned".!
So from the company;
"Overall Steel & Tube is in good shape increasingly benefiting from the reinvigoration changes,and with a very strong balance sheet."
"Coupled with a more positive outlook,it seems that the cyclical nature of our business is moving towards the positive."
ps.I know what I prefer.!!! lol.

PennyPicker
05-12-2013, 04:45 PM
Any thoughts on the recent decline of STU? Profit taking followed by some mild panic selling or other?

percy
05-12-2013, 05:37 PM
Any thoughts on the recent decline of STU? Profit taking followed by some mild panic selling or other?

I sold as I thought the PE at 17 when the share price was $3.10 was too high compared with the growth outlook.From the agm presentations on 13/11/2013.:
"activity levels eased for the majority of the period."
"subdued demand and excess production."
"the industry remains intensively competitive,and STU does need to find a way to improve margins."
"low margins."
"the impact from the improving construction cycle may be seen more in 2014-15 and beyond,rather than in the current year."

TimmyTP
05-12-2013, 05:49 PM
Any thoughts on the recent decline of STU? Profit taking followed by some mild panic selling or other?
Some suggestions:
1. international indexes falling
5154
2. other stocks in the same sector falling
5153
3. fear that US economy might be starting to recover
4. Christmas money


This is not advice to do, or not do anything in particular.

gv1
05-12-2013, 08:45 PM
I sold as I thought the PE at 17 when the share price was $3.10 was too high compared with the growth outlook.From the agm presentations on 13/11/2013.:
"activity levels eased for the majority of the period."
"subdued demand and excess production."
"the industry remains intensively competitive,and STU does need to find a way to improve margins."
"low margins."
"the impact from the improving construction cycle may be seen more in 2014-15 and beyond,rather than in the current year."

Same here, after reading the AGM report I decided to sell as I have been holding for long time, bought at 3.10 actually. Sold at 2.99, small loss but good decision I guess. I think mgt needs a bit of shake up, bit of restructure.

winner69
10-12-2013, 09:38 AM
I sometimes wonder why the STU shareprice is where it is at the moment, esp when commercial building activity isn't really at the low levels they say.

Chart shows commercial building consents (a proxy for the size of the market STU is in) going back for a while. Looks like that up to 2006 STU did OK as building activity increased. The STU shareprice fell away before the boom finished and declined even further through 2009 to 2012. However as building activity has picked up the STU shareprice languishes. although starting to trend up (this year better than a year ago). Industry forecasts are positive (the red line goes out a few years) so logically STU shareprice should continue to increase?

Why has STU shareprice been weaker than expected for the last few years, when building activity has been OK. Could be a matter of losing share but more likely it seems to be a margin problem to me .... they are getting squeezed

Might look at STU sales compared to Commercial activity and then overlay margins. If hypothesis is correct the new base for STU is around the current level, not the $4 it once was

MAC
10-12-2013, 10:08 AM
Agree Winner yes, competitive pricing pressure and the lag between building consents and construction is holding them back at present, probably for up to another year.

STU seems a little overvalued at present on a FY14 outlook, FY15 and FY16 may provide better results when Christchurch peaks.

I’m anticipating margins to increase at the peak of the rebuild for a year or so when the sector supply chain comes under pressure, generally happens with most construction booms.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/steel-and-tube-expects-1h-earnings-marginally-improve-reviving-economy-bd-148572

Value Hunter
18-12-2013, 08:58 PM
I'm considering making STU my first investment in a NZ stock. I have a bit of insider knowledge of the industry as I work for a (private company) competitor. I know for 2014 we're expecting orders to increase 100% in Christchurch. The last month or two we estimate orders have gone up by 50%.

We're doubling our warehousing capacity and starting night shifts for the first time ever.

I see some people consider the stock a bit rich at 17 times earnings, however I believe the excellent growth and the fantastic balance sheet make STU undervalued, and I see a minimum fair valuation of the stock at roughly $4.50 within 1 or 2 years. I don't think the $5 - $6 range is beyond possibilities.

Assets - Liabilities for STU are $157m. While their market cap is just $260m.

It just seems great value to me

noodles
18-12-2013, 09:16 PM
I'm considering making STU my first investment in a NZ stock. I have a bit of insider knowledge of the industry as I work for a (private company) competitor. I know for 2014 we're expecting orders to increase 100% in Christchurch. The last month or two we estimate orders have gone up by 50%.

We're doubling our warehousing capacity and starting night shifts for the first time ever.

I see some people consider the stock a bit rich at 17 times earnings, however I believe the excellent growth and the fantastic balance sheet make STU undervalued, and I see a minimum fair valuation of the stock at roughly $4.50 within 1 or 2 years. I don't think the $5 - $6 range is beyond possibilities.

Assets - Liabilities for STU are $157m. While their market cap is just $260m.

It just seems great value to me

Great Post. It is nice to get industry inside knowledge.

Being a bit petty, but did you include the intangibles of $20million in you calcs? I think it is better to exclude these. I note they have almost no long-term liabilities.

Secondly, if they double orders in Christchurch, what will they mean for their total sales? 25% higher? May need to track down sales by region.

Thirdly, should we look through the Christchurch spike? Surely brokers will be doing this. We can't expect sales momentum to continue after the rebuild is complete.

Even still, it really highlights the massive boost about to happen because of Christchurch. I may need to keep an eye on this one.

noodles
18-12-2013, 09:26 PM
I pulled this from the AGM in November. Not exactly bullish. We may need to wait for half year results to see if STU are experiencing the same demand as the company Value Hunter works for.

"The start to the new financial year has seen volumes steadily improve but pricing remaining soft. An October 1 price increase on several distribution products is improving margins, and we expect the first half to be marginally ahead of the corresponding period last year. If construction activity kicks-in in the second half, as anticipated, we expect results to reflect this, so long as the construction industry changes referred to earlier don’t undermine the steel supply chain."

Value Hunter
19-12-2013, 07:50 PM
Great Post. It is nice to get industry inside knowledge.

Being a bit petty, but did you include the intangibles of $20million in you calcs? I think it is better to exclude these. I note they have almost no long-term liabilities.

Secondly, if they double orders in Christchurch, what will they mean for their total sales? 25% higher? May need to track down sales by region.

Thirdly, should we look through the Christchurch spike? Surely brokers will be doing this. We can't expect sales momentum to continue after the rebuild is complete.

Even still, it really highlights the massive boost about to happen because of Christchurch. I may need to keep an eye on this one.

Cheers mate,

I've done only the most basic of research as free time is a luxury i'm struggling to get! But I believe I included the $20 million, as I simply totaled all the assets together in my quick research, I agree it should be excluded.

Your second point is probably the most important factor into deciding the future direction of this stock, again my lack of research time hasn't enabled me to successfully establish how much Christchurch sales effect their overall performance. I'd be very grateful if anyone could provide any info on this? I'll try to look into it once I get the chance

On the third point I don't think we should look through it, if a 30% - 40% increase in earnings occurs (which I believe is achievable) the brokers and market won't be able to ignore it. Generally people become even more optimistic after exceptional gains occur (despite the opposite often being more prudent), so I don't think a lack of support/acknowledgement will happen.

percy
19-12-2013, 08:44 PM
I'm considering making STU my first investment in a NZ stock. I have a bit of insider knowledge of the industry as I work for a (private company) competitor. I know for 2014 we're expecting orders to increase 100% in Christchurch. The last month or two we estimate orders have gone up by 50%.

We're doubling our warehousing capacity and starting night shifts for the first time ever.

I see some people consider the stock a bit rich at 17 times earnings, however I believe the excellent growth and the fantastic balance sheet make STU undervalued, and I see a minimum fair valuation of the stock at roughly $4.50 within 1 or 2 years. I don't think the $5 - $6 range is beyond possibilities.

Assets - Liabilities for STU are $157m. While their market cap is just $260m.

It just seems great value to me

Before buying please read the AGM addresses.They were made on the 13th November.Both were very negative.

Value Hunter
20-12-2013, 05:39 AM
Before buying please read the AGM addresses.They were made on the 13th November.Both were very negative.

Thanks for the heads up, will definitely give them a read before investing

winner69
20-12-2013, 02:46 PM
What I know

Christchurch normally (pre quakes) accounted for 11-12% of the country's construction activity. Could assume that Chch normally is the same sort of ratio.

Ov the next few years new house builds are forecast to steadily increase from current level of 4800 annually to nearly 8000 annually in 2016. The increased numbers mainly rebuilding quake destroyed homes. These days most are built on concrete slabs ....plenty of steel.

Commercial building baseline activity (if there had been no quakes) is about $600m. It has increased to $1.1 billion thirds year and forecasted to increase to $1.4 billion in 2014 / $1.8 billion in 2015 and continuing to grow to $2.6 billion in 2019. Commercial work is STU bread and butter ....plenty of steel

So by 2016 it looks like STU will have 200% or more activity than currently ...if so would increase total in nz by at least 20%.

Somebody said a spike .....this is no spike for the likes of STU / FBU. ..this is a period of sustained growth for up to 10 years.

These sort of numbers is why value's bosses a gearing up to make heaps out of this. Is STU smart enough to do so as well. Only time will tell but maybe value's bosses are much smarter

noodles
20-12-2013, 03:24 PM
What I know

Christchurch normally (pre quakes) accounted for 11-12% of the country's construction activity. Could assume that Chch normally is the same sort of ratio.

Ov the next few years new house builds are forecast to steadily increase from current level of 4800 annually to nearly 8000 annually in 2016. The increased numbers mainly rebuilding quake destroyed homes. These days most are built on concrete slabs ....plenty of steel.

Commercial building baseline activity (if there had been no quakes) is about $600m. It has increased to $1.1 billion thirds year and forecasted to increase to $1.4 billion in 2014 / $1.8 billion in 2015 and continuing to grow to $2.6 billion in 2019. Commercial work is STU bread and butter ....plenty of steel

So by 2016 it looks like STU will have 200% or more activity than currently ...if so would increase total in nz by at least 20%.

Somebody said a spike .....this is no spike for the likes of STU / FBU. ..this is a period of sustained growth for up to 10 years.

These sort of numbers is why value's bosses a gearing up to make heaps out of this. Is STU smart enough to do so as well. Only time will tell but maybe value's bosses are much smarter

Hi winner, interesting stuff. Where did you source your stats?

percy
20-12-2013, 04:04 PM
May pay to send STU Chairman and CEO this information,as going from their AGM comments they are unaware of them.!!lol.

winner69
20-12-2013, 04:08 PM
Hi winner, interesting stuff. Where did you source your stats?

Industry knowledge and forecasts / Stats NZ / Treasury (commercial activity)

What's missing and no easy to get a handle on is infrastructure work ......roads / underground stuff .....suppose steel in a lot of that

A lot activity has started and will continue to increase. One reason why I can't understand the FBU and STU shareprice at the moment.

Heaps of repair work been done over the last few years. My old fav DLX done OK wih all the reprints to fill the cracks etc. DLX reported sales up 18% in nz last year and cited Chch as the main reason. If Chch is 10% of nz sales maybe their sales doubled in Chch using my logic above. Fletchers have been organising this work and there must have been heaps of gib board used and other materials for them.

Maybe too early for carpets (CAV) but new houses are being built.

MAC
20-12-2013, 04:16 PM
I’ve not had one of those flyers in the mailbox for a while, you know the ones with the nice construction progress reports and forecast revenue charts etc.

STU will benefit more from infrastructure and industrial rebuilds than commercial, it’s the complex spec and fabricate to order structures that will boost them, not so much bulk construction reo or general building steel, way too much supply side competition and there are lots of fab shops here who can crank out the routine stuff quite efficiently and cheaply.

They will do much better out of this sort of $450M port rebuild than out of the CBD stuff.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1312/S00748/update-lyttelton-port-shares-close-at-record-on-quake-payout.htm

winner69
21-12-2013, 04:11 PM
Those industry forecasts I mentioned (and which didn't magically arrive in the mail box) are much in line with that chart (the one that arrived in our mailbox no doubt) you posted a few months ago on the Is This Bull Cycle Over thread

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=4702&d=1376281603

Looks like infrastructure is the "lower volume" part of the reconstruction

Interesting insight of yours re the fab shops who can crank out the routine stuff efficiently and cheaply. Does this sort of mean STU will always be a bit behind the eight ball?

MAC
21-12-2013, 06:33 PM
Perhaps Winner with all the billions to go around there may be enough for all ?, and the fab shops will source some materials from STU also.

I find it difficult to see a direct play on Christchurch within the sharemarket, it’s the concrete batchers, construction companies and civil/commercial/residential construction suppliers that will take by far the lions share. Nearly all of those companies are held in private hands, cripes, wouldn’t mind a stake in Allied Concrete or Calder Stewart about now !

FBU but it’s such a small percentage of the greater business, the likes of STU, CAV, NPX might perhaps take a bit from around the fringes to elevate them over the next few years.

DISC: Watching, but not in at present.

Joshuatree
07-05-2014, 04:39 PM
Its right on the 200 DMA in T/A speak thats a sell. What do you think Winner, Mac Percy , KW and all

percy
07-05-2014, 04:49 PM
Its right on the 200 DMA in T/A speak thats a sell. What do you think Winner, Mac Percy , KW and all

I sold out a few months ago as I thought the share price had got ahead of itself.PE ratio was a lot higher than the growth rate.Since then I have seen no reason to think I was wrong.Competition,margins under pressure, and delays in the Christchurch rebuild means it may struggle.

MAC
07-05-2014, 05:41 PM
I sold out a few months ago as I thought the share price had got ahead of itself.PE ratio was a lot higher than the growth rate.Since then I have seen no reason to think I was wrong.Competition,margins under pressure, and delays in the Christchurch rebuild means it may struggle.

I’m not a dedicated TA as you may know but a cross of the 200MA is typically a buy signal for an FA if the fundamentals are solid. I’ve an STU valuation of FY14 $3.20, so flat for now, but still it’s a good portfolio hold with some rebuild potential.

I agree Percy, I think STU may start to pick up a little when both the big commercial build is under way, and, the supply chain becomes tighter than it is now, when contractors need stuff now and in small or specialist volumes, STU are probably who they may call.

Although, when chatting with my dentist on Monday, as far as I could with one less tooth, he told me a great story about how he may just keep his practice in Ilam and never actually move back to the city, they have the insurance pay-out and their ‘temporary’ site on Clyde road looks pretty flash to me. Perhaps they are ahead too with a positive cash balance from the insurance.

I think there may be a lot of this thinking going on, the longer the CBD issues linger, the smaller the ultimate build will be IMO, it may make a nice park along the Avon though, East Hagley ?.

percy
07-05-2014, 06:30 PM
MAC,
I think there a great number of people who are thinking along the lines of your dentist.
The cost of a new building in the CBD has risen to the stage where the rents will mean tenants will be hard to come by.People like your dentist will work out they are better off staying where they are.I would guess your dentist would have to pay two to four times the rent he is paying in Ilam.
It has been brought home by Anthony Gough putting on hold his development in Oxford Terrace,because he can't find tenants.[for his bars]. Lack of car parking will mean the suburban malls will retain their customers.The rebuild will therefore take a long time to happen,and it will happen very slowly.FBU and STU may not do as well as a lot of people think they will.

MAC
07-05-2014, 07:20 PM
I find it a little disappointing actually, remember the early debate about getting the re-build professionally coordinated by engaging a large development company like Bechtel, but nope every local politician wanted a go because they could do so much better than the international project management experts, now we still just have CERA and no progress.

My feel is that this next six months is a bit critical, no financial momentum means the dream of an equivalent size replacement city centre may just be dust.

FBU may not get all they wanted, they've just done my place though, had a few autumnal weeks in Queenstown, nice.

regards, Mac

percy
07-05-2014, 08:00 PM
I find it a little disappointing actually, remember the early debate about getting the re-build professionally coordinated by engaging a large development company like Bechtel, but nope every local politician wanted a go because they could do so much better than the international project management experts, now we still just have CERA and no progress.

My feel is that this next six months is a bit critical, no financial momentum means the dream of an equivalent size replacement city centre may just be dust.

FBU may not get all they wanted, they've just done my place though, had a few autumnal weeks in Queenstown, nice.

regards, Mac

I am very negative about the rebuild.I have been in Ballantynes and the container retail area once since the earthquakes,and have no desire to go in there again.I noted some time ago the Wizard moved to New Regent street.A friend of mine tried to drive to New Regent street and couldn't get there.Bridge and road closures.Who would bother to set up a business where customers can't get to your premises?

noodles
07-05-2014, 08:05 PM
I am very negative about the rebuild.I have been in Ballantynes and the container retail area once since the earthquakes,and have no desire to go in there again.I noted some time ago the Wizard moved to New Regent street.A friend of mine tried to drive to New Regent street and couldn't get there.Bridge and road closures.Who would bother to set up a business where customers can't get to your premises?
LPC just need to free up their hoard of cash with special dividend (the council own 80%).

MAC
07-05-2014, 08:29 PM
I am very negative about the rebuild.I have been in Ballantynes and the container retail area once since the earthquakes,and have no desire to go in there again.I noted some time ago the Wizard moved to New Regent street.A friend of mine tried to drive to New Regent street and couldn't get there.Bridge and road closures.Who would bother to set up a business where customers can't get to your premises?

Tried driving through recently for the first time in a year or so, it took nearly an hour to get through the square mile, I know that will all correct someday again but the present sentiment and prospect of potentially wanting to be the first to move back and live amongst construction for 2 -3 years won't have people queuing.

It's all about confidence and it does all seem to be teetering about here, as soon as we see the savvy property developers pre-selling apartments in Riccarton and Papanui flat out it's a sign the inner city residential plan is toast I reckon. There's that one in Riccarton just built, fully pre-sold, wouldn't be surprised to see a few more start now.

Agree about the container mall, hard to get to and empty aside from tourists, a souvlaki and a coffee cost me 20 bucks!, might as well have been in Queenstown.

Joshuatree
08-05-2014, 10:08 AM
Thanks guys for your thoughts. STU was about to drop under the 200 DMA which i think is more of a negative indicator. Sad to hear re the CBD etc; heres hoping longterm it all works in the long run, and int to hear your opinions on site so to speak;hard for us up north to understand what folks are still going through;really tough for those that are stuck.

percy
08-05-2014, 10:50 AM
Thanks guys for your thoughts. STU was about to drop under the 200 DMA which i think is more of a negative indicator. Sad to hear re the CBD etc; heres hoping longterm it all works in the long run, and int to hear your opinions on site so to speak;hard for us up north to understand what folks are still going through;really tough for those that are stuck.

JT.I am sorry I am so negative about the rebuild.It will happen slowly.The size and scale of the challenges is hard to come to grips with.New earthquake buildings cost a great deal to construct.Developers will not build without tenants.Tenants will not sign leases without customers.Customers who are already shopping elsewhere, will not go to the new shops as there are closed roads and no parking.
It is 3 years on,a great deal has been done,yet there has been very little done.

Joshuatree
08-05-2014, 05:52 PM
LOL STU has hit the 200MDA and bounced up on good volume today. This is more fun than Flappy birds.!!!:t_up:

winner69
25-06-2014, 12:39 PM
Milford still buying

Nearly end of financial year and no announcements so no surprises in the profit report

Big work n Chch getting into gear

This is the time of the year when shareprice starts a rise ahead of new consensus valuations.......last year 12% gain June to August
U
NOW TIME TO ACCUMULATE BEFORE FULL YEAR ANNOUNCEMENT

Joshuatree
25-06-2014, 12:47 PM
Thanks winner. Worth a SHOUT :) Milford up to 13.18%. heres to STU breaking $3.20. cheers G&T thanks.

benjitara
25-06-2014, 01:54 PM
I don't agree with any of the negative views re the inner city. Most modern cities have their strongest commercial property confined within their city centres. If Christchurch was to be seen as a business to be valued as people attempt to value stocks then I'd imagine a recent announcement (earthquakes) would initially have a negative effect on the share price because it may have caused the company to re-define profit levels for some time going forward, but with time the announcements (earthquakes) wouldn't be seen as integral to the overall profit potential of the company going forward over an extended period of time. All high-end white-collar professions will find themselves within the city centre within a 10 year period I'd imagine. Their commercial identities are too valuable to be left lingering in the suburbs for too long when others are making the switch back. Christchurch is a growing gate-way to the south and principal city of the south island, in time the earthquakes will be seen as a small setback.

percy
25-06-2014, 05:02 PM
I don't agree with any of the negative views re the inner city. Most modern cities have their strongest commercial property confined within their city centres. If Christchurch was to be seen as a business to be valued as people attempt to value stocks then I'd imagine a recent announcement (earthquakes) would initially have a negative effect on the share price because it may have caused the company to re-define profit levels for some time going forward, but with time the announcements (earthquakes) wouldn't be seen as integral to the overall profit potential of the company going forward over an extended period of time. All high-end white-collar professions will find themselves within the city centre within a 10 year period I'd imagine. Their commercial identities are too valuable to be left lingering in the suburbs for too long when others are making the switch back. Christchurch is a growing gate-way to the south and principal city of the south island, in time the earthquakes will be seen as a small setback.

Hope you are right.I was in a law office in Papanui last week.One of the partners told me they have signed a new five year lease.Their clients prefer Papanui site as it is easy to get to, and easier parking.I expect the rent will be a lot cheaper than town.

benjitara
25-06-2014, 06:34 PM
Hope you are right.I was in a law office in Papanui last week.One of the partners told me they have signed a new five year lease.Their clients prefer Papanui site as it is easy to get to, and easier parking.I expect the rent will be a lot cheaper than town.

I'd imagine if there's anywhere near a positive revival in the center of town you'll see a rush to get in again. I've had conversations that contradict your statement but only time will tell. Where the ruins of Berlin not replaced by new buildings and renewed optimism?

Joshuatree
28-07-2014, 10:06 AM
STU has hit $3 five times recently with lower highs mostly. $NZ dropping too. Proximity to Div holding it up?

Joshuatree
28-07-2014, 10:23 AM
NZ Superannuation now above 5% andMilford Increased to 13 % plus.

Value Hunter
30-07-2014, 09:26 PM
Just thought I'd give an update on my thoughts on STU from working in the industry.

Firstly I never got invested, was waiting for a better price to enter around, and it never declined enough to attract me, as most of the value in the company is on the balance sheet, which will be very difficult to become unlocked for shareholders. With a P/E ratio of 16 I felt it was just at too high a level to get involved with. Not overvalued by any means, just not attractive enough for me to get invested.

Secondly it's being made apparent to me that they have essentially reached they're maximum capacity with their current facilities. 3 hour waiting times are not unheard of for truck drivers. The jist of what i'm being told is that they have bitten off more than they can chew, indeed some major customers are contemplating using my company as a supplier and dumping STU as they have been let down by them far too often. Looking at it from a glass half full perspective, you could see the Christchurch branch as cash cow due to it being so busy. Wafer thin margins, inefficient operations and striking staff would make me sceptical however.

I struggled to justify investing as I do not believe they will achieve they growth required to make them a profitable investment. However, they are constructing a new lead premises in Christchurch, and this could very well solve many of their operational problems. When it will be completed I do not know.

Finally, I decide to pull out as I felt the competition was just too fierce in this industry. As well as numerous companies fighting fiercely for the normal engineering/structural companies and building suppliers, it has become a sad fact that any large commercial project ($10m + projects) will actually source the steel directly from China, with all the fabricating work done in China.

Steel companies are now left fighting over the few merchants (Carters, ITM's, Mitre 10, Placemakers) to make any real volume, but the margins are so poor for these bulk orders, that in some cases the freight cost could be the difference between profit and loss. A 10% gross margin would be our standard for large customers such as these, with ourselves paying the freight.

Not one for me now, would consider it again if it dips down to the $2.50 range

Joshuatree
30-07-2014, 10:24 PM
STU now $2.95 and breaking down from a long sideways channel. Looking v weak . No ins to buying since june.
Thanks VH for your on the ground observations. I keep hearing how slow the rebuild is going (percy etc). !0% and paying freight jeez!
FBU PE re 18.5 only comparison really. D/Y may well under pressure @ 7.2% if you're right. Maybe they are making bigger margins because of CH CH in the rest of NZ.

percy
31-07-2014, 11:20 AM
Just thought I'd give an update on my thoughts on STU from working in the industry.

Firstly I never got invested, was waiting for a better price to enter around, and it never declined enough to attract me, as most of the value in the company is on the balance sheet, which will be very difficult to become unlocked for shareholders. With a P/E ratio of 16 I felt it was just at too high a level to get involved with. Not overvalued by any means, just not attractive enough for me to get invested.

Secondly it's being made apparent to me that they have essentially reached they're maximum capacity with their current facilities. 3 hour waiting times are not unheard of for truck drivers. The jist of what i'm being told is that they have bitten off more than they can chew, indeed some major customers are contemplating using my company as a supplier and dumping STU as they have been let down by them far too often. Looking at it from a glass half full perspective, you could see the Christchurch branch as cash cow due to it being so busy. Wafer thin margins, inefficient operations and striking staff would make me sceptical however.

I struggled to justify investing as I do not believe they will achieve they growth required to make them a profitable investment. However, they are constructing a new lead premises in Christchurch, and this could very well solve many of their operational problems. When it will be completed I do not know.

Finally, I decide to pull out as I felt the competition was just too fierce in this industry. As well as numerous companies fighting fiercely for the normal engineering/structural companies and building suppliers, it has become a sad fact that any large commercial project ($10m + projects) will actually source the steel directly from China, with all the fabricating work done in China.

Steel companies are now left fighting over the few merchants (Carters, ITM's, Mitre 10, Placemakers) to make any real volume, but the margins are so poor for these bulk orders, that in some cases the freight cost could be the difference between profit and loss. A 10% gross margin would be our standard for large customers such as these, with ourselves paying the freight.

Not one for me now, would consider it again if it dips down to the $2.50 range

Thank you for your post.
I knew things were tough,but never realised they are "near impossible." !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

macduffy
15-08-2014, 12:53 PM
Despite the poor margins and "near impossible" conditions in the steel business, STU have reported an increased profit for the year! The market likes it - SP up 3.4%.

percy
15-08-2014, 01:55 PM
Despite the poor margins and "near impossible" conditions in the steel business, STU have reported an increased profit for the year! The market likes it - SP up 3.4%.

A good result.Nice surprise.

winner69
15-08-2014, 02:29 PM
Despite the poor margins and "near impossible" conditions in the steel business, STU have reported an increased profit for the year! The market likes it - SP up 3.4%.

Gross margin remained the same as last year - not too bad but 21.3% of sales doesn't give much margin of safety does it

Under Surveillance
15-08-2014, 03:24 PM
A good solid workhorse company; the sort of share which should be at the core of many portfolios.

At 300 STU has a PE of 14.7 and a gross dividend yield of 7.4%. Outlook given is positive, if cautiously so. I'm not selling.

I see it as a tribute to STU investors that this thread runs to just 8 pages. As one comparison, the PEB thread has hared past 700 pages.

Snoopy
27-11-2014, 02:12 PM
A good solid workhorse company; the sort of share which should be at the core of many portfolios.

At 300 STU has a PE of 14.7 and a gross dividend yield of 7.4%. Outlook given is positive, if cautiously so. I'm not selling.



I am a former holder of Steel and Tube. I have decided to do one of my 'snoopshots' on some key metrics since the GFC.



200920102011201220132014


Sales$484.5m$380.0m$385.8m$405.4m$395.0m$441.4m


S/H Equity$150.1m$145.5m$152.0m$152.7m$157.2m$160.4m


ROE17.4%6.8%11.4%8.6%9.9%11.2%


eps30.6c11.2c19.6c14.8c17.6c20.4c


dps20.0c12.5c11.0c14.5c13.0c15.5c


Margin5.4%2.6%4.5%3.2%4.0%4.1%



I have adjusted the profit results to get rid of 'one offs' like the taxation restructure in FY2010

Frankly, I think this is a fairly disappointing series of figures. The company took a hit during the global financial crisis and has never recovered its former glory.

There is optimistic talk of how with a full year of results from the Tata Steel acquisition it will become a $500m a year sales company. But sales in FY2008 were $508.9m! So it is only just getting back to where it was six years ago and is nowhere near as profitable!

Perhaps the most telling comment came in the FY2012 report. The size of the steel market was 970kT in 2005 and only 665kT in FY2012. The company has had to 'resize' to fit the market.

STU is exposed to many sectors : Commercial, residential, Oil & Gas, Rural. Managment likes it best when there is lots of heavy duty commercial construction going on. More chance to add value in those projects. But often those projects have a government component, and this government will only spend in a recession. So it makes for a dull multi year outlook.

SNOOPY

Snoopy
28-11-2014, 05:57 PM
I have adjusted the profit results to get rid of 'one offs' like the taxation restructure in FY2010

Frankly, I think this is a fairly disappointing series of figures. The company took a hit during the global financial crisis and has never recovered its former glory.


Specifically the most disappointing figure is the return on equity. I like that to be over 15%. With ROE > 15% it should be possible to generate enough margin for growth. 15% is a figure is well above almost all company's cost of capital. Pre GFC, Steel and Tube was achieving this most years.

The highest margin ( NPAT/Sales ) figure in a full yesr post GFC was FY2011 (margin 4.5%) . Here, despite a lull in heavy construction, Steel and Tube was able to benefit from out of balance steel prices that have swung wildly since the GFC as production adjusted to demand. Backing this up was a good year in Oil exploration and the pipework associated with that.

Nevertheless, just because a company has disappointed, that doesn't make it a poor investment. It all comes down to that critical purchase criterion - price.

SNOOPY

Snoopy
28-11-2014, 06:03 PM
Nevertheless, just because a company has disappointed, that doesn't make it a poor investment. It all comes down to that critical purchase criterion - price.


I rate STU as an income share.

Dividend income paid out from 2009 to 2014 inclusive has averaged 14.4cps (net). This is equivalent to an annual gross income for shareholders of:

14.4c/0.7 = 20.6cps

Using a 7.5% yield ( I picked that figure as it is two percentage points above where I believe interest rates will end up at 5.5% near the top of this business cycle), I get a decent value buy price of:

20.6c/0.075 = $2.75

With STU closing at $2.95 today, I see STU as around 7% ahead of decent value. I am putting STU on my watch list.

SNOOPY

macduffy
19-02-2015, 07:15 PM
A solid interim result from this "unfashionable" company.
NPAT up 35%, interim dividend maintained at 9cps.

Under Surveillance
19-02-2015, 07:57 PM
A solid interim result from this "unfashionable" company.
NPAT up 35%, interim dividend maintained at 9cps.
I think you'll find the interim dividend is up from 7cps last year, when the final was 9cps.
I reckon the gross dividend yield at the closing price today, 304, is 8.8%.
Hopefully STU will remain unfashionable, at least until I've bought some more.

winner69
19-02-2015, 08:06 PM
A solid interim result from this "unfashionable" company.
NPAT up 35%, interim dividend maintained at 9cps.

Doing heaps better than Fletchers whose steel distribution sales and profit growth nowhere near STUs

PartyPooper
19-02-2015, 08:14 PM
just my few cents put in with no background on the companies financials.

Just driving around Christchurch its not hard to see the company is doing well. Branded Steel & Tube cars everywhere and trucks constantly going in and out of the distribution centre.

blackcap
19-02-2015, 08:25 PM
just my few cents put in with no background on the companies financials.

Just driving around Christchurch its not hard to see the company is doing well. Branded Steel & Tube cars everywhere and trucks constantly going in and out of the distribution centre.

That anecdotally is a great sign... glad I am a holder. Good to see STU doing so well. Interim dividend up and many more good things to come hopefully.

macduffy
20-02-2015, 07:21 AM
I think you'll find the interim dividend is up from 7cps last year, when the final was 9cps.
I reckon the gross dividend yield at the closing price today, 304, is 8.8%.
Hopefully STU will remain unfashionable, at least until I've bought some more.

Ah! Yes, thanks, U S.

Ekrub
21-02-2015, 08:47 AM
Enjoyed a convivial brew with an STU executive at my local in Lower Hutt last night (friday) and suggested perhaps STU could buy up 51% of Arrium, formerly OneSteel Australia. Bahahahahaha. Cheap as chips now at A22c. Glad they got out of our company!

Snoopy
21-02-2015, 12:51 PM
Enjoyed a convivial brew with an STU executive at my local in Lower Hutt last night (friday) and suggested perhaps STU could buy up 51% of Arrium, formerly OneSteel Australia. Bahahahahaha. Cheap as chips now at A22c. Glad they got out of our company!


Arrium used to run 'Steel manufacturing' and 'Steel distribution' as two separate divisions. As a cost saving measure they were merged. The overall steel division is still not profitable. But before the GFC, the rising Oz dollar and cheap Asian imports, steel distribution in Australia used to be profitable.

This had me thinking: maybe Steel and Tube is on borrowed time here? But maybe the Christchurch earthquake has saved them? Civil Engineers will be very wary of putting steel without the right stamp on it into buildings and structures in NZ these days. Perhaps in Australia it doesn't matter as much? I still don't really understand how Steel and Tube can run so well here, while the former parent Arrium does such a poor job, profitability wise, distributing steel in Oz. But if Arrium can turn their steel distribution side around, maybe Steel and Tube should buy it?

SNOOPY

macduffy
22-02-2015, 07:27 AM
I still don't really understand how Steel and Tube can run so well here, while the former parent Arrium does such a poor job, profitability wise, distributing steel in Oz. But if Arrium can turn their steel distribution side around, maybe Steel and Tube should buy it?


Is that really a fair comparison? Arrium is also an iron ore miner; mining consumables distributor; major steelmaker; as well as a steel distributor. Most segments of the business have taken major hits in recent years as the slide in iron ore prices ratchets up the competition from the major miners RIO, BHP and Vale and world recession knocks the demand for steel products. Arrium's results from steel distribution are impacted by these other branches of the business and are difficult to separate from the reported results for the overall steel division. Or so I have found.

Snoopy
22-02-2015, 04:02 PM
Is that really a fair comparison? Arrium is also an iron ore miner; mining consumables distributor; major steelmaker; as well as a steel distributor. Most segments of the business have taken major hits in recent years as the slide in iron ore prices ratchets up the competition from the major miners RIO, BHP and Vale and world recession knocks the demand for steel products. Arrium's results from steel distribution are impacted by these other branches of the business and are difficult to separate from the reported results for the overall steel division. Or so I have found.

The blast furnaces that supply the locally manufactured steel for Arrium's 'Onesteel' now (since the original 'Project Magnet') run on magnetite ore, not haematite ore. Arrium's haematite ore is exported. Arrium's magnetite ore is used locally. My reading of that is that Arrium's iron ore export business and Arrium's Australian Steel manufacturing business no longer cross over.

It wasn't too many years ago when the steel distribution division had its own Chief Executive and reported separately to Steel Manufacturing. When I said Steel Distribution on its own was once quite profitable, I was referring back to those days. Since both steel divisions were combined you are right Macduffy. There is no easy way to tell how steel distribution on its own is going in Australia. I do know that the imported competition to one line of output now has an anti-dumping duty put on it and other anti-dumping duties are mooted. That should be positive for domestic steel distribution of Australian sourced product going forwards.

SNOOPY

DarkHorse
19-08-2015, 09:14 PM
STU offers a great yield and seems to have a sound balance sheet and sound management. Recent results show 20% increase in EPS and cashflows and an upbeat view of prospects. Added it to my watchlist and would be very interested to hear any views either positive or negative on its prospects.

BeeBop
20-08-2015, 07:24 AM
Dark horse, I own them and will continue to do so. Their ROE and ROA meet my targets and I like their DY. For me, they have not much scope for a huge share price increase, if you go them at a low point then you could do nicely. I keep them in my portfolio as the yield is good and they seem sound and boring.

winner69
20-08-2015, 07:32 AM
STU offers a great yield and seems to have a sound balance sheet and sound management. Recent results show 20% increase in EPS and cashflows and an upbeat view of prospects. Added it to my watchlist and would be very interested to hear any views either positive or negative on its prospects.

Recent comment on another STU thread

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1835-STU&highlight=Stu

winner69
12-11-2015, 01:37 PM
Bad announcement

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/224651.pdf

Which threads shall we use or doesn't it matter as STU is a dog

Snoopy
12-11-2015, 03:09 PM
Before the GFC, the rising Oz dollar and cheap Asian imports, steel distribution in Australia used to be profitable.

This had me thinking: maybe Steel and Tube is on borrowed time here? But maybe the Christchurch earthquake has saved them? Civil Engineers will be very wary of putting steel without the right stamp on it into buildings and structures in NZ these days. Perhaps in Australia it doesn't matter as much? I still don't really understand how Steel and Tube can run so well here, while the former parent Arrium does such a poor job, profitability wise, distributing steel in Oz.


From Winner's AGM address reference.

----

Globally the steel industry is struggling with a number of unprecedented issues. These issues are
dominating the outlook for S&T...By far the biggest issue is the ever-increasing low- priced steel exports, particularly from China.

Chinese steel production capacity is now almost 50% of the world’s production and with their
domestic demand reducing, Chinese exports have increased by 38% in the year ending September 2015, and will likely exceed 100 million tonnes this year. Putting this into perspective, New Zealand’s demand across all steel products is less than 1 million tonnes per year.

The consequence of this, compounded by low raw-material prices of iron ore, coal etc, is that finished
steel prices are now at the same levels they were in 2002-3 as steel producers try to compete with the
low-priced exports. According to the Chinese Iron and Steel Institute, large and medium-sized Chinese steel producers have cumulatively lost $4.4 billion US dollars so far this calendar year. However, the exports continue to increase and many jurisdictions have introduced anti-dumping legislation to help protect their steel industries. Interestingly, this in turn increases focus on those areas where such actions are not being pursued, such as in New Zealand.

While steel producers such as SSI (Sahaviriya Steel Industries) and Tata in the UK, BlueScope in Australia and their subsidiary NZ Steel here in New Zealand, attract publicity around significant job losses involved in potential steel mill closures, steel distribution is equally impacted. These lower steel prices have a significant impact on steel distribution margins

----

Are the cold winds of China steel now crossing the Tasman? I guess STU holders will want to make sure their share price trajectory doesn't follow the path of Arrium!

SNOOPY

winner69
12-11-2015, 04:57 PM
Snoopy comment: Are the cold winds of China steel now crossing the Tasman? I guess STU holders will want to make sure their share price trajectory doesn't follow the path of Arrium!

The answer probably in the CEO address - "This low-priced global steel environment is likely to be around for some time"

winner69
19-11-2015, 05:38 PM
WOW - share price down to 220

Not surprising really after that shocking announcement

Around 200 has been solid support in the past (esp post GFC and Chh quakes) so maybe this is as low as it goes.

might have a closer look then.

theace
30-11-2015, 02:11 PM
Slowly inching towards $2 ... thoughts on long term?

winner69
02-12-2015, 07:04 AM
Slowly inching towards $2 ... thoughts on long term?

I think it will hang around this level for a while - even though $2.20 is cheapskate compared o $3.30

Building and construction activity in nz approaching a peak in this cycle. The markets STU play in probably strongest they have been for nearly 10 years. And yet they can't seem to capitalise on it. What happens when building growth slows?

Along with their view that low steel prices are to stay KW for a long period hardly much to enthuse over for the next few years is there?

I keep watching developments as I have. Morbid fascination with stocks like STU - maybe some medium term trading opportunities as chart a pretty reliable indicator of where going over the years