NBS - Nexbis Limited.

[ollie]

Name change for ETC including stock exchange code now in force.
Looks like a northern direction for the share price to go with it.
All looking good for the report next Thursday.

[Footsie]

up to all time highs.... looking the goods

[Lego_Man]

up to all time highs.... looking the goods

I thought you were taking the piss and referring to all-time highs on the new stock code.

Then i looked at current the share-price...

[Footsie]

A mate of mine works for a large broking house. When I told him about this story he was so excited he immediately phoned the company (this was a week ago) then bought some stock for himself and since then has been "spruiking" this stock too all his institutional clients.

He said today he's had a lot of buying.


That's brokers for you !

Oh well im not complaining.

[The Big Ease]

What a week?!

Prett exciting seeing this one move so close to the results announcement. Very encouraging to say the least.

That's some nice info there Footsie. Pretty good volume going through too and it seems it was all on market.

Can't wait for next week to roll along. Nearly got my first bag full.

[Footsie]

running again.....

I wonder now if when the result actually arrives... I bet it wont rally on the day... given its massive move.

mid 60's is the level I want unless there is something in the result which makes me change my mind.

there seems now to be a bit of a frenzy to get set before the result.

If you want to buy this stock (long term), my advice is be careful and avoid buyin on the day of the actual result.... you might end up paying the weekly high.

[The Big Ease]

If 60 cents is all you want Footsie, you might have to sell out this week ;)

[ollie]

The result is tomorrow 20th, today could be weak after world markets decline, maybe an opportunity there to buy.
Yesterday saw nice volume 5.2 million shares traded with a top of 57c.

[evilroyrule]

hi there, yes i am new at this so please breathe before replying. i note from looking at the depth on the trades today someone has been picking up very very small parcels at the higher end. is this someone trying to keep the price up or something else???

[Footsie]

bought a few more in the panic sell off this morning.

didnt get the low but 48.5... not too bad.

Looks to be well supported above 50c now.

ITs the final coutdown now !

[The Big Ease]

Some great support Footsie.

Wouldn't be suprised if it closed even after a pretty steep drop.

[evilroyrule]

can you someone explain what the 3,000,000 shares traded just before close were, with s1xt narration? thanks for your help!

[ollie]

evilroyrule, i can not explain the 3 mill shares at 50c but someone must have been happy to buy em

My computer crashed as i sent my buy order yesterday @49.5,and missed the buy, by the time i had it up and running again i got them at 47, sometimes i think someone is sitting on my shoulder. lol

You would have to be confident today after a good dow last night and the report out tomorrow.

[evilroyrule]

evilroyrule, i can not explain the 3 mill shares at 50c but someone must have been happy to buy em

My computer crashed as i sent my buy order yesterday @49.5,and missed the buy, by the time i had it up and running again i got them at 47, sometimes i think someone is sitting on my shoulder. lol

You would have to be confident today after a good dow last night and the report out tomorrow.

yes i think we will go close to 60 today. not sure what will happen come the 20th. perhaps flat for a while?

by chance have you ever lived in oakura?

[The Big Ease]

What's the word on the street Footsie?

I am pretty confident of a satisfactory result ie ~45m npat plus 20 mill cash balance.

Ousia sounds very informed over on HC and he reckons they will be right on the money with the result, including decent cash levels as he reckons China and Malaysia have been paying on time.

Apparently Lodge have done some "extra" due diligence a few weeks ago and have not sold a share since, instead buying them up at twice the rate. This is the firm which has undertaken some work for NBS with presentations and raising capital. Seem pretty close to the company so that should bode well.

This could be a very good earner or the con of the year. I am leaning towards the former.

Results are due Thrusday or Friday. One poster write that the company said it would be before noon on Friday. Let's see.

[ollie]

Yes, i believe Frid 21st prior to midday for the report.

Never lived or visited oakura evil, whats the connection ??

[Footsie]

No further updates TBE.

IF, the result shows a decent cash balance ahead of expecations and or some update on Vietnam or other contracts then the price will rally.

I have heard that they wont be releasing details of contracts they are tendering for anymore as when the went public with the vietnam deal thats why they nearly lost it. competition.

market is expecting NPAT of 48m + cash balance of 12m for year and some commentary as to cash received post balance date....

Fundamentally I will be selling down if it hits 60c..... as stated before, unless there is something to convince me otherwise.

But who knows, lots of crazy stuff happening at the moment.
Although i veiw it as unlikely. if the report was out of the park, it wouldnt surprise me to see NBS race to 80c or something.

[The Big Ease]

Well I could never accuse you of being greedy Footsie.
4.5 cents to go before you sell ;)

I reckon this one still has some multiples of its current SP to go if it can show decent cash levels tomorrow.

1.50 plus is not out of the question IMO.

[Footsie]

the question I always ask myself TBE... is can the m/cap be justifed. forget the p/e for a moment.

at 1.50.... you are talking about a m/cap of around $700m fully diluted.

IMHO. that is absurd for a company with realistically 2 contracts.

But hey anything is possible.

Fundamentally in order to reach that price they need A LOT more contracts.

don't get greedy dude.

if it advances beyond 60c my fundamental valuatoin.... you should consider holding on using a trailing stop or some other form of TA. problem is, this stock tends to flow in waves. so with a trailing stop you'd get whipped out........... Best to sell into any buying frenzy

HOWEVER>.... I do note that ABN Morgans have a target of 71c and a valuation of 1.00


Up to you.....

either way, you've made money.

PS in the mid 60's i've pretty much doubled my money in a month....so thats another reason to take some off the table.

[Footsie]

What a shocker!
wonder where it will finish for the day.

how many times did they reiterate $48m.....and then they come in at $45m... not a good look.

still when it traded 40c that was a bit overdone.

Just shows how you have to be careful though.
By the looks of the volume in the first 30mins... looks like one or two large instos are bailing out.

Will be interesting to see where it finishes. At this early stage looking like it might settle mid 40's

If you didnt already know..... NO SUCH THING AS A SURE THING IN THIS GAME

even I was greedy waiting for 60c... i should have bailed at 57.
oh well.
going to take some time to read the full report now

ALSO didnt like the lack of mention about cash receipts post balance date.

DISC: still holding. I think i will get my 60c, jsut might take a wee bit longer.

[Corporate]

What a shocker!
wonder where it will finish for the day.

how many times did they reiterate $48m.....and then they come in at $45m... not a good look.

still when it traded 40c that was a bit overdone.

Just shows how you have to be careful though.
By the looks of the volume in the first 30mins... looks like one or two large instos are bailing out.

Will be interesting to see where it finishes. At this early stage looking like it might settle mid 40's

If you didnt already know..... NO SUCH THING AS A SURE THING IN THIS GAME

even I was greedy waiting for 60c... i should have bailed at 57.
oh well.
going to take some time to read the full report now

ALSO didnt like the lack of mention about cash receipts post balance date.

DISC: still holding. I think i will get my 60c, jsut might take a wee bit longer.

Footsie I don't think it was that bad. $48m -- $46m. I bought a small parcel at what I hope is the daily low :-)

50% of NPAT paid out as a dividend going forward!

[Footsie]

unless the company does something to soothe the nerves of intso's this could be back to mid 30's in a week.

because its down 20% there are probably quite a few day traders in there as well.... that wont help

ask youreslf....If the announcement wasnt that bad... why is it down 20%

that;s what im asking myself.... and I dont like the answer.

[Lego_Man]

Strange.

Nothing really stands out in that report that you think would warrant such a massive one day decline.

[The Big Ease]

Cash balance is too low.
Ousia on HC reckons management have spoken to a few analysts today to let them know NBS has received further cash receipts and the current balance is under 20m and that further significant receipts are due in the next month or so and the company will be in a position to update the market in this regard.

I can't imagine why they did not release any commentary regarding this.
I don't think it was bad at all Footsie. We knew the cash balance would be in the vicinity of 10m for the year ending 2009. But I was expecting 20m plus to be in the accounts and by the sounds of it, theyre not too far off that. They shouldve mentioned it.

I think it is a satisfactory profit result
Cash flow is low
Pending cashflow is encouraging
Current cash in the accounts should have been clarified.

Interestingly, the market absorbed 13m shares and still ended at 46 cents. Significantly higher than where it was 2 weeks ago.

[The Big Ease]

Also looks like they have expensed those options in 2009 at a cost of ~4.5m.
Not including that, it would have been a 50m profit.

Still profit doesn't mean much without cash, but this looks to me like a compan in need of professional PR and investor relations rather than misleading investors.

Notice the strong buying after the first 2 hours and on 13million volume.
That's alot of shares to absorb and the SP is still higher than it was 2 weeks ago.

I can onl guess that informed buyers scooped up the selling volume in the knowledge that cash flow is certain and contracts are on their way.

I wonder if any sub holders will emerge from all of this.

If the have anwhere near 20m cash on hand now, then the only thing we have to complain about is the clumsy investor relations. Surel the can afford some pros now?

[steve fleming]

Just looking over the results now, and am i reading it correct that approximately 60% ($38m) of all NBS' FY09 sales were during the month of June???....must be all the billing for the gas tank project.....

And given that there were $38m of "current debtors" as at 30 June 2009 (ie 0 to 30 days), now almost 2 months, later those debtors must be either:

1) now sitting at 60 to 90 days which would indicate some concerns regarding their recoverability
2) Have been collected by NBS and its bank balance is now $38m higher.

Either way, NBS should provide some disclosure.

Also, interesting to see that what was previously stated to be a repayable 'on demand' USD5m loan by NBS to a party related to the China deal now won’t be repaid for five more years....

[Rif-Raf]

Just looking over the results now, and am i reading it correct that approximately 60% ($38m) of all NBS' FY09 sales were during the month of June???....must be all the billing for the gas tank project.....

And given that there were $38m of "current debtors" as at 30 June 2009 (ie 0 to 30 days), now almost 2 months, later those debtors must be either:

1) now sitting at 60 to 90 days which would indicate some concerns regarding their recoverability
2) Have been collected by NBS and its bank balance is now $38m higher.

Either way, NBS should provide some disclosure.

Also, interesting to see that what was previously stated to be a repayable 'on demand' USD5m loan by NBS to a party related to the China deal now won’t be repaid for five more years....

You can't assume that the terms of the gas contract require payment 30 days after billing, they may have negotiated any kind of payment scheduling. Good point re the bond repayment, they also don't say whether it is interest earning and at what rate.
Why are all the pages labelled "for personal use only" ?

[Corporate]

Alright so I'm a holder now.

I'm not to worried about the $40m in accounts receivable. Why, well, because these financail statements will eventually be issued with an audit opinion. And there is no way that the auditors haven't had a look at them already and have got some comfort over the $40m sitting in accounts receivable.

Also management would have been in contact with the auditors throughout the year letting them know what to expect as a year end result....especially since the result was going to be significantly higher than 2008. NBS and their auditors would have "agreed" that NBS could book the $38m (approx) of additional revenue in this financial year.

[Lizard]

I checked CITP Holdings on the HK companies register and it turns out used to be AQSIQ Special Equipment Ltd (from Nov 08) and changed name in Feb. Prior to that, it was Mutual Sino Ltd, registered Oct 08. Doesn't show address or shareholders - probably could purchase that info for $HK22. $HK11 will buy the directors names.

[Footsie]

There is just too much risk with these guys.

we are all making excuses for them
Note: those accounts weren't audited.

If that's the reaction to 45m profit and 10m cash... Imagine what would happen if they didnt get paid on the China deal

I've seen this kind of thing time and time again. maybe im too cautious. but i dont wont to be heavily exposed to a company like this.

I've reduced my position and will exit completely if it rallies.

I will keep a close eye on it.
1) looking for cash in the tin
2) new contracts with other govt's


I spoke to an analyst and they will be downgrading to a hold.

This company holds the risk of an investor waking up one day to find it down 50-60%

Be careful folks.

I'll share a few more thoughts on monday

[The Big Ease]

IMagine what would happen if any other company didn't get paid for the work they have done?

I see very little risk of non-payment.


This company holds the risk of an investor waking up one day to find it down 50-60%

Highly unlikely Footsie. Unless a contract is cancelled or the technology doesn't work, then I reckon this is jumping at shadows.

The corporate comms have been less than satisfactory. But they technology has merit and they have a good pipeline of further contracts. There is nothing wrong with the position they are in given the nature of their business.

[Corporate]

There is just too much risk with these guys.

we are all making excuses for them
Note: those accounts weren't audited.

If that's the reaction to 45m profit and 10m cash... Imagine what would happen if they didnt get paid on the China deal

I've seen this kind of thing time and time again. maybe im too cautious. but i dont wont to be heavily exposed to a company like this.

I've reduced my position and will exit completely if it rallies.

I will keep a close eye on it.
1) looking for cash in the tin
2) new contracts with other govt's


I spoke to an analyst and they will be downgrading to a hold.

This company holds the risk of an investor waking up one day to find it down 50-60%

Be careful folks.

I'll share a few more thoughts on monday

Footsie I think you are worrying about this to much. Most of the accounts receivable are "current" i.e less than 30 days. I think trying to read into these things to much is not a good idea.

There has been NO evidence to support the fact that NBS are not going to get paid.

[Footsie]

Sorry guys.
Maybe you are right.
But as I grow older and perhaps wiser I become more sceptical.

I was severly burnt last year by a few companies, who started off down the same track.

I hope this company turns out great, cash comes in the door and they pay a 10c for FY10. However, my read of the situation tells me it wont be like this.

The way it got smashed on Friday is to me a clear indication of how this company would get dropped like hot potatoe if something goes wrong.
That plus the fact that management have now lied to me on 2 occassions that I have spoken to them. Also the broker analyst I spoke to is none too impressed with Mr Dykes.
And why did the founding Director and Chairman resign? Health reasons? B.S. That is a warning flag.
The biggest strength the have is that there is no debt, so the bank wont be after them.

As I said, I've cut my position in half.... and will sell the rest if my price target is hit.

IF, things change and they can regain my trust by getting cash in the door or winning a new contract. Sure I'll buy back in.


Lastly did you notice that there was no COGS in the P&L? are they trying to say that it costs nothing to print this stuff? Do you really think the chinese are stupid enough to allow someone a sell them a product that is virtually free to produce.

For me the biggest test is always the dividend 9 times outa 10 if a company is doing well and prospects look good the divi increases (or commences in this case). that is key for the future.
But remember the market cap... at 1.00 thats a m.cap fully diluted of over 500m...

[The Big Ease]

CEO just bought 500,000 on the market.

[Corporate]

CEO just bought 500,000 on the market.

This is great! I CEO will be in the best position which knowledge about the likihood of collecting receivables!!!! People are making an issue out of nothing!

[Footsie]

the price in 6-9 months time will be the ultimate decider of who is right or wrong in this debate.

[The Big Ease]

All in good time Footsie.
The risk/reward prospect is in favour of the latter IMO.
There are some issues to keep in mind, but I just don't see them as the most likely outcome.

I reckon receiving payments is the most likely.
Today's significant purchase by the CEO gives me great comfort.
Good things to come IMO.

[Corporate]

All in good time Footsie.
The risk/reward prospect is in favour of the latter IMO.
There are some issues to keep in mind, but I just don't see them as the most likely outcome.

I reckon receiving payments is the most likely.
Today's significant purchase by the CEO gives me great comfort.
Good things to come IMO.

I agree TBE. It is a tough decision topping up on either NBS or CFE. Then DWS posted a great result yesterday too!

[Footsie]

CFE is an asset play and a punt on Tony Sage

NBS you are basically betting that the chinese will pay.

DWS....economic recovery will continue.


All quite different risks IMHO

[The Big Ease]

Apparently an announcement out by the end of the week stating cash flows are just under 20m.

Roadshow next month.

New chairman is a close personal friend of the malaysian PM.

[The Big Ease]

Orbis buys another 4million shares to lift their holding to 30mill and 7%.
CEO buys 500,000 shares at 45 cents each.

Things are lining up very nicely.

[Footsie]

Look, if the cash comes in.... the price will appreciate...

But you just have to be cautious.

IMHO, the market is well informed on this story and that it is currently appropriately priced, given the risks.

If the cash comes in and the dividend is paid, then you'll be rewarded.

Ouisa from HC is clearly an institution or company insider.

[The Big Ease]

Footsie,

I understand why you are more cautious than me.
Afterall, you are doing this for a living and need to feed the family, I assume.

I like the story and can see perfectly good reasons for why cash was not higher at the balance date. But they have received significantly more if you are to believe the grapevine, which is soon to be confirmed.

Reading the presentation, they have a number of deals awaiting final approval.
They expect further contracts from existing countries in 2010.
The expect to open 1, possibly more new regional offices.
Pay 50% in dividends going forward.

If 2 contracts can deliver 80m NPAT, then another couple wouldn't hurt. They have already proven they can roll out nexcode suite in a relatively short period of time and to the customer's satisfaction.

Like you said, time will tell.
Apparently an announcement is expected shortly to address cash receipts.

EDIT: I forgot to add, the volatility in this stock is to be expected given the market conditions, the cash position tbc and it is a fast growing company without a track record. Given all of this, it is still on a good uptrend, though the recent pullback is approaching support levels so perhaps a bounceback is in order.

Plenty of people see reason to sell, but the buying has soaked it all up and we are still higher than a few weeks ago.

[Footsie]

TBE
I'll bet you a bottle of your preferred that this company is crooked and that say by the end of 2010 they will have been exposed somehow.
Crooks can be good at making money.... But they are unscrupulous in the way they do it.

I spent considerable time studying Malaysian politics and economics around 10 years ago. Not much has changed. High corruption and crony capitalism.
As is now evident with the ousting of John Houston an the new Chairman.

This stock may as well be listed on the KL exchange.

I dont think NBS will go bust, I just think its run by crooks and the market "intuitively" knows this and it will therefore never be valued as if it were clean.

THIS is JUST MY OPINION> please dont be offended.

As I said, I still hold some, but have banked profits and reduced my holding. meaning that if they double in price.... i still do OK, but if I wake up and Dykes et all are up on corruption charges and the stock goes to 10c... I'll be OK too.

PS if I am wrong im sure I will have made enough to pay for the bottle..... :)

[The Big Ease]

it's possible.
Why doesn't Orbis know any better?


Let's see.

[snowball]

In my book, rule #1 is to protect your capital above all else. Footsie has made a number of observations in this thread. The latest accounts and deficiencies in supporting information are as enlightening as the questions they raise.

The cash flow seems to correspond to the consulting income. The 'product' sales according to the receivables aging have virtually all occurred in the last month. The accounts are not audited at this point. The auditors will be very concerned that these sales have occurred in the last month of the year and that no cash has been received.

A key risk in investing in small caps is the inherent lack of quality and timeliness in information. There is often a reason why they 'go quiet' for a period.

I will be staying away as I do not wish to risk my capital where inherent uncertainty as would appear in this case. You can't take full comfort from an insto being there. They do not always know and when things go wrong or they have been lied to they dump.

Remember Arasor ... I looked at it a few times and fortunately never became a shareholder. Also, what is too good to be true often is.

Footsie, suggest you consider my rule #1.

[The Big Ease]

TBE
I'll bet you a bottle of your preferred that this company is crooked and that say by the end of 2010 they will have been exposed somehow.
Crooks can be good at making money.... But they are unscrupulous in the way they do it.

I spent considerable time studying Malaysian politics and economics around 10 years ago. Not much has changed. High corruption and crony capitalism.
As is now evident with the ousting of John Houston an the new Chairman.

This stock may as well be listed on the KL exchange.

I dont think NBS will go bust, I just think its run by crooks and the market "intuitively" knows this and it will therefore never be valued as if it were clean.

THIS is JUST MY OPINION> please dont be offended.

As I said, I still hold some, but have banked profits and reduced my holding. meaning that if they double in price.... i still do OK, but if I wake up and Dykes et all are up on corruption charges and the stock goes to 10c... I'll be OK too.

PS if I am wrong im sure I will have made enough to pay for the bottle..... :)


What makes you think Houston was ousted and didn't resign for legitimate reasons?

There are a number of insitutional investors who are thought to have done significant due diligence into NBS. Lodge and Orbis.

You might want to discount Lodge because they also do some work for NBS, but I have read that Lodge mainly serve sophisticated and instutional clients. Surely they wouldnt throw their reputation away for a relatively small amount of fee income.

Orbis on the other hand state that they are contrarian and take long term positions in companies presenting a discount to intrinsic value. They too specialise in servicing sophisticated and insitutional clients. Due diligence is a key platform for anyone who wants to go against the flow. Essentially betting that the are better informed than the market.

Orbis recentl upped their holding to 7% from 5%.
The CEO just bought 500K shares at 45 cents.

Looks quite likely to me. Also conscious of the issues you have raised.

[Corporate]

Footsie and Snowball. I respect you're opinion and it is always good to have posters who have a different views. However, everything you have posted is opinion and we have seen nothing to support your claims.

[The Big Ease]

The cash flow seems to correspond to the consulting income. The 'product' sales according to the receivables aging have virtually all occurred in the last month. The accounts are not audited at this point. The auditors will be very concerned that these sales have occurred in the last month of the year and that no cash has been received.




Remember Arasor ... I looked at it a few times and fortunately never became a shareholder. Also, what is too good to be true often is.




They are not selling widgets by the truckload where you can track sales on a daily.weekly basis. This is a solutions based business where work is undertaken over many months, thus the invoices being sent in the same month.

Given the starting date for printing the gas tank cards and the timinng of receipts of the second payment from Malaysia, then the cash position is understandable.

As I understand the situation, NBS have been on the phone to a couple of analysts and large shareholders to let them know cash received after balance date is approx 18m, which if we are to believe it would mean invoices are being paid on time and we can expect further receipts in the next 6 weeks.

Chinese are on fixed quarterly instalments.
I have also read that the malaysian contract is on 60 day payment terms.

These need to be taken into consideration.

More contracts will help and I am optimistic on this front.
If it eventuates, then expect NPAT to be more than 100M for 2010. Current forecasts by ABN amro and Lodge is in the vicinity of 80-100m without an further contracts.

at current prices and projected 50% dividend payout, we are sitting on a 25% yield for FY 2010.

CEO buying more
Orbis increasing its stake
Lodge buying more shares on behalf of its clients

Looking pretty good.

I respect your concerns, but at this point in time NBS has more evidence in its favour than against it.

Roadshow is on next week. The last cofnerence they attended was in March. Take a look at what happened to the SP after that.


EDIT: As for arasor, completely different situation.
That company was doing business in India, which sent the comp broke. The undertook significant works for ITI (a troubled indian telco) and never got paid. The JV with ZTE international in china was the jewel in the crown and remains its last remaining hope, if they have any. ITI have now been taken over by the government of India after continued losses.

NBS are not doing business in india or in the telcoms space. The have government clients dealing with issues of national significance in malaysia and china. Highly likely to pay. Furthermore, NBS is not in a transactional relationship but a solutions type. Non-payment by china would mean the would need to scrap their ID card solution and pick up a new solution. Something that would cause significant delays and costs.

[The Big Ease]

thanks to Ousia on HC:

Lodge sent the following note out to insto clients at around 11am on Friday:

Additional cash has been received since 30 June
Government debtors are considered to be low risk and the company sees very little risk to the collection of receivables
The implementation of both the Malaysian Immigration contract and the China Gas Tank project has gone very well
Underlying EBITDA margins (excluding options expense and D&A) are >80%
There remains a strong pipeline of demand for the NexCode technology
The Vietnam deal is out to tender and NBS is in a strong position to win in FY10
We will retain our FY10 NPAT forecast of ~$80m
In summary, we expect operating cashflow to improve significantly in 1HY10 and the pipeline of demand remains solid
NBS is trading on an FY10 PE of 2.4x, therefore we retain our BUY recommendation

[The Big Ease]

Orbis continues to buy, grabbing another 5 million.
Pretty strong buing from these guys

[Corporate]

Orbis continues to buy, grabbing another 5 million.
Pretty strong buing from these guys

What I find interesting is that 5m shares accounts for MOST of the volume around the 28 August!

[The Big Ease]

buying was done between 21st and 28th. Plenty of volume for a 5m purchase.
Interesting that they resumed buying immediately after the results announcement.

Perhaps they were one of the institutional investors assured further cash had in fact been received after the balance date. Either way Orbis now have 8% of the company, which is just on $16m.

They seem to like it and so do I.

I have finished my buying with my last top up at 55 cents.
Happy with what I hold now.

[Lego_Man]

Another shocking announcement, get ready to cop a flogging.

[Damo79]

Another shocking announcement, get ready to cop a flogging.

Impressive spin! They announce that the almost done Vietnam deal first announced over a year ago is no longer happening, but they also threw in some figures for the value of every deal they ever dream of making in the future. I get the feeling it worked, and many have read it as a positive :/

[The Big Ease]

They announced that the vietname MOU has not led to a direct and exclusive negotiation because of lobbying by industry participants. NBS are still a part of this process and are favoured to win the tender due to be closed in September. Nothing in there to suggest it is no longer in the pipeline.

The pipeline of prospects is very encouraging, but let's face it, this is not the announcement the market is looking for. We want to know about cash receipts.

However it is still a positive development. 3 contracts awaiting approval given NBS margins is fantastic. Need to close these and then issue a profit forecast, but hopefully we have an idea of the cash position long before that.

[Lego_Man]

Impressive spin! They announce that the almost done Vietnam deal first announced over a year ago is no longer happening, but they also threw in some figures for the value of every deal they ever dream of making in the future. I get the feeling it worked, and many have read it as a positive :/

I didnt, sold out.

That Vietnam thing was a shocker. I loved the "by the way, we're also not giving out any details of future contracts anymore".

How any fundy could invest in this company is beyond me, questionable management and now no transparency.

[The Big Ease]

Why would you want to flag the specific opportunitities you are working on to your competition?

The company is obviously willing to provide a pipeline and value (which is exactly what I implored them to do in my email), but providing specific details has proven to be counter-productive, as the Vietnamese situation has proven.

Most companies do not disclose their business development opportunities in detail. For good reason.

As for transparency, NBS have contracted earnings for the next 4 years of 100-120m.

Still, we need them to show us the money. I understand an inst. roadshow will be undertaken this month.

[Rif-Raf]

Yes, it could be very convenient to use the excuse of commercial sensitivity/ confidentiality, but the reasons stated may well be appropriate too. An easy way for competitors to keep an eye on prospective contracts if their competitor is spilling all the details to the asx.

In a business like this confidentiality of business leads would be very important so you just have to trust them, but can you?

[The Big Ease]

CEO popping his head out to do some PR with a brief write up in Criterion.

"...reliable government debtors"

[Footsie]

i read that ann over the weekend. classic NBS.... lots of OHH AHH.. but no detail.

BTW, i read it that they are assuming they have lost the Vietnam deal.

[The Big Ease]

nah, just saying its at tender. Roadshow was cancelled last week so the CEO could ensure all was good with submitting it by close. NBS are supposedly the favoured bid. We will see. There are three others awaiting final approval i.e. agreed to and needing rubber stamps.

How did you like the CFO's antics being drunk and disorderly; then slapping a cabbie?
Orbis liked it so much the took the opportunity of the recent sell down to top up with another 5million. The are either brilliant or foolish. I'll go with something in between for now because I'm on their side of the fence.

Roadshow is back on this week. Hopefully Dykes knows what he is doing.
Could lead to some big movements, one way or the other.

[Footsie]

Dykes , what a fool.

What rabbits are the going to pull out of the hat at the roadshow.
I see price solid yesterday.

will be itneresting to see if it gets a run this week

TBE is there still antics over at HC with fake posters?

[The Big Ease]

I believe so.

[The Big Ease]

Price has recovered from the Peter Dykes induced sell-off. What a bloody clown.
Rumour on HC that he may be replaced.


Chart is looking good.
Volume has spiked in the last 3 days and a very strong finish today on big volume (over 1m through after close - 6m for that day)

Monday road show.
It will be interesting to see. Expect an update RE: cash position soon and perhaps FY10 guidance.

Still lots of questions, but there is a healthy margin of safety in the SP too.

[The Big Ease]

Orbis buys another 4million shares.

Their buying has been very consistent at these prices.

Over 10% holding now. Do they know something?

[Footsie]

must have been something in the annual report.....????

I had a quick read but nothing in there to explain a 20% price fall.

[Lego_Man]

So much for margin of safety...glad i got out a while ago for no damage.

[Footsie]

looking back at the course of sales, it seems to be a "fat fingers" order that smashed it.
10.56am Sydney time...from 44 to 38c

stop lossess the forced it to 33.5

but given it hasnt recovered to 44c, you'd have to be worried.

better make that down 25% and not showing any signs of holding up... Stock exchange should issue a please explain

[The Big Ease]

Directors bought another $100K each and the SP rose to 39.5 cents during the da before settling at 39cents. We are now approx 12% down since the ann. report, which contained nothing new.

The CEO has purchased ¬$300K of shares in the past 6 months.

[Footsie]

TBE - yuo still a believer?

im out now.

[The Big Ease]

I would've sold had I woken up through the night and now I see Orbis has topped up another 4million shares to take them to 49m.

Chart tells me to sell.
Management have demonstrated a few "inconsistencies" as well as some positives.

I am undecided now, which probably means I should sell. Should only hold with confidence.

[Dimebag]

Footsie/TBE,

The new information in the annual report was the composition of revenue, with the vast bulk of revenue coming from Chinese contracts as opposed to the group's Malaysian contracts, the latter of which only contributed about A$3m in revenue.

The significance of this is that the Malaysian contracts were previously expected to be a key contributor to 2H09 earnings, and have clearly ramped up much more slowly than management's previous indications. However, the most important upshot is that it is highly suspicious that NBS was nevertheless able to come within a hare's breath of guidance despite the significant underperformance of this contract, with the shortfall being "magically" made up by significantly higher Chinese revenues.

I can only speculate of course, but my suspicion is that they have front-loaded Chinese revenues to make their FY09 numbers, and that the quality of the profit is highly dubious IMO. The resignation of the Chairman prior to the signing off of the accounts may have had something to do with this as well (again, pure speculation on my part). They may or may not ultimately receive this revenue in cash - that remains to be seen. However, in either case, the 2H09 earnings run-rate has likely been way overstated. Management said at the FY09 that it expects earnings "growth" in FY10, but they haven't clarified whether they require the winning of new contracts to achieve that growth. My suspicion is that they do.

Other issues:
*They said in late calendar 2008 that significant Nexcode receipts were expected in 2H09, and this failed to transpire.
*They said in mid June that cash was above A$10m due to significant Nexcode receipts, and that further receipts were expected by balance day. Cash at 30 June was in fact A$9-10m with minimal evidence of significant Nexcode cash receipts.
*Receivables are on 30-90 day terms so NBS should currently be sitting on at least A$40m in cash. However, the company has steadfastly refused to give further cash updates. It is highly improbable they would continue to do so if they were in fact in possession of the cash, IMO.
*The Vietnam contract has fallen through and no new contracts have been signed for some time.

On the positive side:
*management have been buying shares, and it is possible they have failed to update the market on the cash balance in order to get the share price down so they can buy more stock PA.
*they have a non-nexbis consulting business with OCF of A$11m in FY09 and no debt. This business may be worth 15-20cps so there is some downside protection if the nexbis business blows up.
*according to the company, there is a huge potential deal pipeline, but the realism of these projections are difficult to verfiy, no new contracts have been signed for about a year, and limited cash has been collected on existing contracts.

All told, the jury remains slightly out one but the FY09 earning of A$46m appear somewhat dubious. Investing with confidence in this one probably requires more information on the quality of the technology and the scope for new contract wins IMO.

Rgds,
Dimebag (none held)

[The Big Ease]

I am out.
Gave them 6 months, more than enough to come up with the goods but kept missing.
Plenty of promise but this was approaching my margiin of safety so I am now totally out and will wait cash confirmation before reconsidering.

[Damo79]

Good move in my opinion TBE. I know how hard it is to get out of a share that you've had such high hopes for, so brave call.

You never know, you might miss out. But I'm almost certain you'll be patting yourself on the back in a few months time feeling glad you weren't sitting on a 5 cent share.

Got any good companies lined up for the next purchase? I'm sitting on some cash without any really tempting propsects and need ideas :)

[The Big Ease]

it cost me a fair bit of upside in the rally, but i couldve bailed with a 60% increase if i wanted to. So many multibaggers on myy watchlist ie FLT 5 fold since march!


i like BOW and bought into the rebound yesterday.
A bit pricey, but i like the chart action and have always rated those three permits, especially comet. Even for a csg novice like me it stood out as a company maker.

I will be keeping an eye on the charts with this one, but it is fairly safe in terms of volatility. When the technicals turn, the stock tends to follow the trend for a few months. They are pointing up and quite strongly too. Fast/slow stoch look like there might be a couple of "weaker" days to come but it will remain on trend if the YTD trends are anything to go by.

[Dimebag]

Interesting to see that Orbis is still buying and now have nearly 50m shares and no doubt helped prop the share price up in the high 30s and 40s in recent times. Either they are more informed than the market and are going to make a fortune off this one, or they've been spun a line of BS by management and have fallen headlong into a value trap. If it's the latter, it's very likely they are going to absolutely destroy the share price when they realise their error and try to offload 11% of the company onto the open market!! Is going to be interesting to see how it plays out to say the least.

Good call getting out TBE - irrespective of how it plays out, from our perspective there are too many unanswered questions and we simply do not have enough information to invest in this company with confidence. Holding would therefore be pure speculation IMO.

Cheers,
Dimebag

[Footsie]

I fell into the same boat, and I really didnt like that guy Dykes.

I've seen Directors buy stock before and the company still go broke, so I dont place much weight on that.

Although I made good money on this stock it was the fact that I tied up capital for many months when I could of placed this elswhere for a mulit-bag return.

[Corporate]

Change of tune.

I'm out as well - at a loss. But there are too many better opportunities out there where management will actually talk to you. I knew it was time to go when I looked on my shareholding with distain.

[The Big Ease]

Orbis continues to top up with another 4million shares.

They are unrelenting. Digging deeper or do they know more than NBS have revealed so far?

At least they are sticking to their "style".

[Footsie]

i wonder what the price would be if ORBIS went supporting it?

orbis arent exactly smart money...

I think something bad is giong to come out soooner or later for NBS... glad to be out, just wish i sold earlier.

[The Big Ease]

It intrigues me more than anything.
What do you think is going on footsie? Do you think they have done their research on this one or just having a contrarian punt?

Why aren't they concerned by the James Mackay links and the TPID intermediary nonsense, the lack of transparency in the shareholder communication and even lack of communication altogether.

I can't wait to see how this all unfolds. You don't have to lose money on it to learn from the experience.

[Lego_Man]

There is a NZ fund manager who holds NBS, pretty fringe but here you go:

http://www.piefunds.co.nz/

Check out some of their newsletters.

[Footsie]

I looked at the Pie Fund newsletter (which you have to subscribe to for the latest one)

Anyway, september said
"NBS – I have chosen to exit Nexbis despite
the company performing well and trading on
a low earnings multiple because I’m worried
about their cash position. They still have a large
debtor position from two “lumpy” contracts
and if the market gets wind that the cash isn’t
coming in the stock will plummet. Therefore,
I’d rather be cautious. If the cash is received
then we can look at them again, but in this
environment, if there is any doubt, we are out.
I’d much rather invest in something I have full
confidence in."

INteresting that they have sold out too..... leaves Opus to keep soaking it up.

[Footsie]

see announcement that the malaysians arent paying and these guys are fraudsters..

glad we all got out...

[Lizard]

Yes, and all credit to Steve Fleming to pointing out they were dodgy early on:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=249510#post249510

I've looked at this company very closely over the last couple of weeks and still can't work out if it is amazingly undervalued or just plain dodgy.

A couple of things concern me:

1.Why would ETC lend $5.7m to their Chinese project/customer in December (when ETC was running short of cash)?

2.Neither versions of the CF statement released for HY09 reconcile to what actually happened in HYO9 (in terms of cash raised/ acquistions made).

3.How is it that operating costs ($2.5m for HY09) really can be so low for a business the size of Nexbis?

[The Big Ease]

yeah close call.
Beware of those downtrends.

[snowball]

TBE, good to see you are out. Hope everyone else on ST is taking note. I think eyes will now be directed to Orbis. The question must be running through their minds. How do they get out? If I had any I wouldn't want to be getting out when they are departing.

[Corporate]

Change of tune.

I'm out as well - at a loss. But there are too many better opportunities out there where management will actually talk to you. I knew it was time to go when I looked on my shareholding with distain.

Wow glad I got out!

[Footsie]

peter Dykes buying more..... he must have rocks in his head.

I mean they have hired a PR company to avoid nasty questions.

[h2so4]

I started reading their annual reports but most of it was mumbo jumbo then I gave up. And Their website isn't any clearer. I still don't know exactly what they do?:confused:

[snowball]

[QUOTE=Footsie;280534]peter Dykes buying more..... he must have rocks in his head.

App3Y indicates a shuffling of the deck chairs.

Tfr of 1.7m shares off-market from pte coy to personal holding at 16.5cps on 2 Nov so no net change.

[Corporate]

[QUOTE=Footsie;280534]peter Dykes buying more..... he must have rocks in his head.

App3Y indicates a shuffling of the deck chairs.

Tfr of 1.7m shares off-market from pte coy to personal holding at 16.5cps on 2 Nov so no net change.

yeah agreed. no purchase

[The Big Ease]

what a bunch of clowns these guys are.
No business update
Still haven't confirmed receipt of debtors from 6 months ago.

Continue to have rampers on HC alluding to immaterial goings on like job adverts and potential for contracts in far flung places.

How are these guys and their associates allowed to go from one exchange to flogging what seems like the same dead horse to unsuspecting investors?

[Lizard]

Entertaining read from NBS yesterday after all last year's hype.

Minimal revenue ($1.96m) huge loss (-$21m), additional negative forex adjustment for overseas assets (-$9m), underlying cash burn (net of one-off receivables payment) looks to be around $4m, so even their only high point ($15m cash in bank) might not be reliable as a baseline valuation. No obvious sources of new revenue until new contracts are announced.

Only surprise is why the market cap remains at $73m. I guess there are some that can't afford to take the loss?

[COLJAY]

In trading halt.
a) cap raising--- won't get mine!
b) Vietnam result
c) takeover

[Corporate]

In trading halt.
a) cap raising--- won't get mine!
b) Vietnam result
c) takeover


Think you can add:
ASIC investigation
Administration
Dykes in prison

[steve fleming]

I was quite surprised to see the Nexbis name and logo on all the airport finger print security machines on recent visits to both KL and Penang airports in Malaysia.

It all looked surprisingly professional and genuine.

I wonder if this is part of the Malaysian project that has been delayed about 3 years and was due to re-start again last quarter?

[steve fleming]

Nice way to avoid further public scrutiny - have a related party buy out the business.

Leaves the shell and some cash for the directors to undertake their next dodgy venture.