KMD - Kathmandu

[Balance]

KMD now trading at 40c above their IPO. Perhaps the Aussies knew a bit more than many of the posters on this thread.

And back down well below IPO price.

Profit downgrade.

Hope those who got in at the IPO have got out.

Hard work, the retail sector.

[Dr_Who]

KMD's next profit announcement will be very interesting. If they cant meet forecast the shares will get hammered.

Yes a great IPO indeed......... Yeah Right.

Another great Tui billboard for KMD and yet another great magic show escape specialist, private equity.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/3989234/Kathmandu-slips-under-forecast-profit

[winner69]

And back down well below IPO price.

Profit downgrade.

Hope those who got in at the IPO have got out.

Hard work, the retail sector.

I was busy earlier and when I read the first paragraph 'Sales from all stores exceeded the forecast sales
per the prospectus issued by Kathmandu at the time of its IPO last October by NZ$5.5 million. i assumed great thats good ....... but obviously not as it transpired

[Lizard]

Didn't make margin forecast?

What is the point of forums if you can't say "I told you so (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7128-Kathmandu-IPO&p=279939&viewfull=1#post279939)" occasionally.... :p

[troyvdh]

....mmmm...touche.....Lizard......

[Footsie]

I could never see what the attraction was here. You've had two players, being Cameron and private equity squeeze all the value they think they can extract from KMD in the last 5 years. On top of that you have a retail environment which is soft plus increased competition in this leisure/outdoor market.

Not too mention that i think everyone has got their head around this "sale" business and that the retail price in KMD is a joke. THe sale price is the retail price and if you are dumb enough to buy there outside of the sales then you deserve whats coming.

[percy]

I could never see what the attraction was here. You've had two players, being Cameron and private equity squeeze all the value they think they can extract from KMD in the last 5 years. On top of that you have a retail environment which is soft plus increased competition in this leisure/outdoor market.

Not too mention that i think everyone has got their head around this "sale" business and that the retail price in KMD is a joke. THe sale price is the retail price and if you are dumb enough to buy there outside of the sales then you deserve whats coming.

Well sumed up Footsie.

[Dr_Who]

I could never see what the attraction was here. You've had two players, being Cameron and private equity squeeze all the value they think they can extract from KMD in the last 5 years. On top of that you have a retail environment which is soft plus increased competition in this leisure/outdoor market.

Not too mention that i think everyone has got their head around this "sale" business and that the retail price in KMD is a joke. THe sale price is the retail price and if you are dumb enough to buy there outside of the sales then you deserve whats coming.

Wait till JC starts up her own adventure retail store. The margins will be squeezed further.

[GR8DAY]

I could never see what the attraction was here. You've had two players, being Cameron and private equity squeeze all the value they think they can extract from KMD in the last 5 years. On top of that you have a retail environment which is soft plus increased competition in this leisure/outdoor market.

Not too mention that i think everyone has got their head around this "sale" business and that the retail price in KMD is a joke. THe sale price is the retail price and if you are dumb enough to buy there outside of the sales then you deserve whats coming.

Yep cudnt agree more Footsie.....in fact cudnt have put it much better myself......."SALE", my bottom!

[minimoke]

Not too mention that i think everyone has got their head around this "sale" business and that the retail price in KMD is a joke.
Well its SALE day on the NZX. A million shares sold at $1.76, which is a good discount of the RRP of $2.50. Better be quick, these shares are racing out the door. Store is open till 5.00pm tonight so get in quick for a bargain at never to be repeated prices - until the next sale that is.

[GR8DAY]

LOL mini....gud1 bro! ( I might even drive from Kathmandu to Briscoes and get a double bargain while Im at it)

[minimoke]

LOL mini....gud1 bro! ( I might even drive from Kathmandu to Briscoes and get a double bargain while Im at it)
Well you'd better be quick. Supply chain is working in overdrive to keep up with demand. Back up the truck - another 100,000 has just gone out the back. C'mon, Live The Dream, get some of this clearance stock while it lasts! Go on - you know, in your heart of hearts that you really do want some KMD in your bottom drawer. Impress your friends with this iconic brand - you could pull the script out at your next dinner party - just imagine the envy of your ALF holding guests as they see the real hard core adventure enthusiast in you.

Though on a more serious note 2,000,000 crossed in Oz today at $1.40 in one trade so someone was happy to exit/buy.

[Balance]

KMD now trading at 40c above their IPO. Perhaps the Aussies knew a bit more than many of the posters on this thread.

And then there was deafening silence from all the come-out-of-the-closet-critics for 3 months until yesterday.

What's the point of being critical now when the sp is below IPO price?

Even hindsight charlies do better than that!

Great IPO for those who bought for a stag and who flipped out as well when the sp went well above IPO price.

Poor ozzie cousins - they are left to suck the kumara on this one!

[h2so4]

From an observation point of view, KMD stores are empty. One of their largest stores, Macquarie Shopping Centre (250,000 customers per week) has gone. Wife wont let me buy KMD shares.

[percy]

From an observation point of view, KMD stores are empty. One of their largest stores, Macquarie Shopping Centre (250,000 customers per week) has gone. Wife wont let me buy KMD shares.
At least you married well>!! Sensible girl.

[Lizard]

And then there was deafening silence from all the come-out-of-the-closet-critics for 3 months until yesterday.

What's the point of being critical now when the sp is below IPO price?

Even hindsight charlies do better than that!

???

Footsie said (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7128-Kathmandu-IPO&p=278367&viewfull=1#post278367) it would be good for a quick stag. Now you agree... credit where credit is due. No hindsight charlie there!

[minimoke]

Great IPO for those who bought for a stag and who flipped out as well when the sp went well above IPO price.

??? there was only a 5% gain in the IPO in listing (hardly a stellar stag) and it was all down hill from there. KMD has only been above IPO price for 3 months of its life - the rest well below. The Mid Feb buyers@ $1.90 (below IPO) will have done the best if they sold out mid April @$2.55. Other than that, quite unspectacular.

[h2so4]

At least you married well>!! Sensible girl.

I just go with the flow percy.:)

[cycat64]

I refuse to be an apologist for Kathmandu. However, I think there needs to be some balance in arguments from posters. As I have claimed before, it is a highly successful business. To date we have to say it has expanded successfully into Australia and although it is highly leveraged it still seems to be making a profit. It is hardly the only business around that is not currently priced higher than its IPO. Just as an aside, can anyone explain why Fisher Funds have put money into this business? I would have thought their track-record was pretty good in picking winners and that they do the hard yakka homework. Fisher does tend to be in for the long haul however, and rides the ups and downs.

[Balance]

I refuse to be an apologist for Kathmandu. However, I think there needs to be some balance in arguments from posters. As I have claimed before, it is a highly successful business. To date we have to say it has expanded successfully into Australia and although it is highly leveraged it still seems to be making a profit. It is hardly the only business around that is not currently priced higher than its IPO. Just as an aside, can anyone explain why Fisher Funds have put money into this business? I would have thought their track-record was pretty good in picking winners and that they do the hard yakka homework. Fisher does tend to be in for the long haul however, and rides the ups and downs.

Fisher fund track record good?

When they buy, you sell.

When they sell, you buy.

That's their track record!

Kathmandu yet another darkening example, along with TUA, BGR, PPL, RAK etc etc etc!

[percy]

I refuse to be an apologist for Kathmandu. However, I think there needs to be some balance in arguments from posters. As I have claimed before, it is a highly successful business. To date we have to say it has expanded successfully into Australia and although it is highly leveraged it still seems to be making a profit. It is hardly the only business around that is not currently priced higher than its IPO. Just as an aside, can anyone explain why Fisher Funds have put money into this business? I would have thought their track-record was pretty good in picking winners and that they do the hard yakka homework. Fisher does tend to be in for the long haul however, and rides the ups and downs.

Yes it was a very successful business,but I think their business model of 3 large sales a year is weak.With retail being terrible here and in Aussie I think they will struggle.Halinsteins and Briscoes have surprised me with their good reults ,great retailers with strong reputations for supplying good products at fair prices.I brought some CVT not that long ago at 85cents when Fishers sold out,so they do not allways get it rightI

[winner69]

Yes it was a very successful business,but I think their business model of 3 large sales a year is weak.With retail being terrible here and in Aussie I think they will struggle.Halinsteins and Briscoes have surprised me with their good reults ,great retailers with strong reputations for supplying good products at fair prices.I brought some CVT not that long ago at 85cents when Fishers sold out,so they do not allways get it rightI

From an operational point of view KMD is a great company and probably will continue to be one going forward.

In spite of percey's 'weak model' it makes superior margins than BGR and HLG

A reported Gross Margin of 63% is fantastic .... and so is a EBIT margin in excess of 20% - compared to BGR at 7% and HLG at 13%.

Rod is true retailer ... buying and selling stuff and making a buck on the way through but interestly not as many bucks as HLG do.

At a 20% EBIT margin (63% gross) after all the sales you wonderwhat sort of margins KMD make on the ticket price eh ..... but one thing the prices are high before the discounting ..... so isn't that clever retailing

I agree with cycat64 - we shouldn't be thinking KMD is a dud .... it's just that it'd previous owners did a great job in seducing punters into paying over the top for a good company

KMD will continue to thrive .... pity the shares are overpriced at the moment ... I'd buy them at 120 odd and seeing they have left a bad taste with many punters I reckon I'll get my way

Amazing what the 'halo effect' does eh .... all of a sudden HLG and BGR have great management and are well run .... while KMD is a dog. On financial performance I'd rather own KMD

[percy]

From an operational point of view KMD is a great company and probably will continue to be one going forward.

In spite of percey's 'weak model' it makes superior margins than BGR and HLG

A reported Gross Margin of 63% is fantastic .... and so is a EBIT margin in excess of 20% - compared to BGR at 7% and HLG at 13%.

Rod is true retailer ... buying and selling stuff and making a buck on the way through but interestly not as many bucks as HLG do.

At a 20% EBIT margin (63% gross) after all the sales you wonderwhat sort of margins KMD make on the ticket price eh ..... but one thing the prices are high before the discounting ..... so isn't that clever retailing

I agree with cycat64 - we shouldn't be thinking KMD is a dud .... it's just that it'd previous owners did a great job in seducing punters into paying over the top for a good company

KMD will continue to thrive .... pity the shares are overpriced at the moment ... I'd buy them at 120 odd and seeing they have left a bad taste with many punters I reckon I'll get my way

Amazing what the 'halo effect' does eh .... all of a sudden HLG and BGR have great management and are well run .... while KMD is a dog. On financial performance I'd rather own KMD

I would wait until they are below $1.20 if you were buying them.The way they are dropping you may get them at $1.00.Then again you may be able to pig out at 95cents.The trend is down and will continue.

[winner69]

Retail sales in NZ are all that bad ..... last 12 months sales are up on the previous year and with low inflation prob volumes have held up probably well

Its not all gloom and doom really .... just that growth experienced in the past has gone away for a while

Chart from Stats NZ

[percy]

Retail sales in NZ are all that bad ..... last 12 months sales are up on the previous year and with low inflation prob volumes have held up probably well

Its not all gloom and doom really .... just that growth experienced in the past has gone away for a while

Chart from Stats NZ

Go down to your local mall and ask any retailer what their sales are this year compared to last year over the last 3 or 4 weeks.Top retailer may be down 10% while others could be down over 30 to 40%.
retailers have huge leverage with on going liability of rents,usually set when turnover was a lot higher.With ratchett clauses no relief there.you will note a lot are having sales just to buy a months credit.In the book trade there is a huge problem with largest retailer trying to take supplier terms from 30 days to 60 days.Book publishers,and book trade very concerned.You will note Leemings trying to get themselves a months extra credit by offer 20% disc on all white wear.I just brought a pair of Rockford shoes{made just north of Auckland,in China] were $265. In the end I paid $ 89.90.Unemployment on the raise,electricity prices,food prices,GST, all increasing.Retail is not the place for an astute investor at present.

[macduffy]

Retail is not the place for an astute investor at present.

Unless, of course, you subscribe to the "buy straw hats in winter" school of investing.

Personally, I like to see the trend turn upwards first.

[percy]

Unless, of course, you subscribe to the "buy straw hats in winter" school of investing.

Personally, I like to see the trend turn upwards first.

Me too.I think there will some good buys.

[percy]

Pumpkin Patch results out Wednesday 22nd September ... Michael Hill usually about the same time ... Any other retailers before then?
Michael Hill and Cavalier due on 20th August. No other retailers before then.

[minimoke]

Michael Hill and Cavalier due on 20th August. No other retailers before then.
KRK end year 31 August anticipate a 15% drop in GP

[h2so4]

From an observation point of view, KMD stores are empty. One of their largest stores, Macquarie Shopping Centre (250,000 customers per week) has gone. Wife wont let me buy KMD shares.

Observation mistake. I better get new glasses. KMD store at Macquarie is still there. I don't know how their 70% off sale was going but they had some customers. Wife still wont let me buy their shares. Thanks honey darl. :)

[percy]

Go down to your local mall and ask any retailer what their sales are this year compared to last year over the last 3 or 4 weeks.Top retailer may be down 10% while others could be down over 30 to 40%.
retailers have huge leverage with on going liability of rents,usually set when turnover was a lot higher.With ratchett clauses no relief there.you will note a lot are having sales just to buy a months credit.In the book trade there is a huge problem with largest retailer trying to take supplier terms from 30 days to 60 days.Book publishers,and book trade very concerned.You will note Leemings trying to get themselves a months extra credit by offer 20% disc on all white wear.I just brought a pair of Rockford shoes{made just north of Auckland,in China] were $265. In the end I paid $ 89.90.Unemployment on the raise,electricity prices,food prices,GST, all increasing.Retail is not the place for an astute investor at present.

Very interesting article in today's NZ Herald "Proof of debt in payment";A North Shore cabling company is stunned to learn it may have to repay $37,000 it earned last year because it should have known the firm it did work for was insolvent.I do not think I would be happy being a retail supplier in some areas today.

[percy]

Observation mistake. I better get new glasses. KMD store at Macquarie is still there. I don't know how their 70% off sale was going but they had some customers. Wife still wont let me buy their shares. Thanks honey darl. :)

Would you please advise us what shares your wise wife holds?

[winner69]

ow the market has digested a lot of recent earnings announcements from retailers I think that many (or at least those that make markets move) have realised that KMD is a brillant company with a very profitable business model

My prediction is that KMD shareprice will outperform the likes of BGR, PPL, MHI etc over the next year .... watch this space

[Dr_Who]

ow the market has digested a lot of recent earnings announcements from retailers I think that many (or at least those that make markets move) have realised that KMD is a brillant company with a very profitable business model

My prediction is that KMD shareprice will outperform the likes of BGR, PPL, MHI etc over the next year .... watch this space

What multiples is KMD trading at?

I am not a sh, but keeping an eye on it.

[winner69]

What multiples is KMD trading at?

I am not a sh, but keeping an eye on it.

Dr - about 6 times this years EBIT and an estimated PE of around 14-15 (to be confirmed) when result out

Shareprice still about where it dropped to after the announcement so looks like all the damage has been done .... and other retailers like BGR haven't gone anywhere in August either

retail will come out of the doldrums soon and I still believe that KMD will be one of the better bets

A great company, great managed and massive margins and a growth startegy for the nextfew years to keep things pumping

[Onthemoney]

Dr - about 6 times this years EBIT and an estimated PE of around 14-15 (to be confirmed) when result out

Shareprice still about where it dropped to after the announcement so looks like all the damage has been done .... and other retailers like BGR haven't gone anywhere in August either

retail will come out of the doldrums soon and I still believe that KMD will be one of the better bets

A great company, great managed and massive margins and a growth startegy for the nextfew years to keep things pumping

Massive margins alright. When I was involved with Briscoes I thought they were bad. KMD has products that they sell for $399 disc to $199 and then even $99 they are still more than doubling their money.

[percy]

Massive margins alright. When I was involved with Briscoes I thought they were bad. KMD has products that they sell for $399 disc to $199 and then even $99 they are still more than doubling their money.

The good retailers make sure they keep their customers,by selling good products at fair prices.It is called reputation,brand loyalty,honest reliabitliy.When looking to buy a retail stock,think if you want to keep dealing with someone who sells you something for $200, and next day it is in their mailer for $100.The Aussie election is not good for retail.Rising unemployment is not good for retail.SCF problems not good for South Island business.Empty shops is not good for retail.The upturn is not insight.

[winner69]

I would wait until they are below $1.20 if you were buying them.The way they are dropping you may get them at $1.00.Then again you may be able to pig out at 95cents.The trend is down and will continue.

Recovered all the lost ground post the announcement re the slightly reduced margins

Still believe one of the better retailers to hold over the next year or so .... prob outperform the others on the NZX like BRG etc

[gregrday]

So Kathmandu drops 11% yesterday on ... no news? Can someone enlighten me as to what happened?

cheers
Greg

[CJ]

So Kathmandu drops 11% yesterday on ... no news? Can someone enlighten me as to what happened?Kathmandu drops its prices 50% every other week. Maybe it is related?

[percy]

So Kathmandu drops 11% yesterday on ... no news? Can someone enlighten me as to what happened?

cheers
Greg

Daily Share Chat a few days ago;The Reserve bank of Australia is likely to raise interest rates in November,which will create headwinds for retailers heading into the key christmas period.

[gregrday]

Thanks Percy, seems a bit extreme, but thems the markets!

cheers
Greg

[JayPe]

Kathmandu drops its prices 50% every other week. Maybe it is related?

Nice one CJ!

[winner69]

So KMD is along with Infratil the most popular stock picked by analysts for 2011 (NZ Herald)

Must have caught on to those high margins and that the market over reacted to slightly missing the prospectus gross percentage

Just remember bear markets start shortly after when consumer spending growth rates peak ... and conversely end when consumer spending starts to pick up again.

In spite of what you read in the papers NZ retail sales reached their nadir in the September 2009 quarter and have slowly got better each quarter since .... and on an annual basis are now 2.5% ahead of last year with a definite uptrend in place

Where the retail spend cycle is current is a signal for better times for the NZ economy ... and shares ... and probably retail shares

Again the headlines in Oz are all gloom and doom but retail growth remains positive

So maybe the 3 guru stockpickers have it right ... and my belief is that KMD is still the best NZ listed retailer to bet on .... with punters benefiting from not only an upturn in market conditions but from the store expansion program underway

[percy]

Figures from Paymark show nationally there was a 6.7% decline in the number of transactions,compared with Boxing Day last year.
Total value of transactions also declined 2.8%.
No region recorded an increase this year.
With the increase in GST sales would need to be up 2.5% to be the same as last year.So retail sales remain poor.

[winner69]

Figures from Paymark show nationally there was a 6.7% decline in the number of transactions,compared with Boxing Day last year.
Total value of transactions also declined 2.8%.
No region recorded an increase this year.
With the increase in GST sales would need to be up 2.5% to be the same as last year.So retail sales remain poor.

Is one day indicative of what the real story is. The same people said before Xmas that sales were up for the first 21 days of December

Weren't there more Boxing Day Sales happening before Xmas as well ..... and one shop owner I talked to said gift vouchers were becoming very popular so punters may have been using those on Boxing Day

Stats NZ made this comment in the October sales release Sales trend - The sales trend for total retail has been rising since February 2009, up 6.6 percent since then. The trend is at its highest level since the series began in May 1995. The monthly rate of increase has been steady, averaging 0.2 percent over the past year.

I agree times are tough out there for retailers at the moment ... after all we are essentially in the middle of a 5 year recession ..... but things are getting better according to the data .... sales wise at least .... it's just that deflation is hurting them a bit and many haven't managed to get costs down to the new norm

I'll stick to my story in that retail stocks leveraged for growth with a store expansion program on the go is a good bet in this environment

[percy]

[url]www.theaustralian.com.au colorado at risk of defaulting loans.
"the retail apparel industry in particular has experienced declining margins and market size."
I do not expect Colorado are alone, although I think it is the big ticket retailers who are suffering the most.

[winner69]

[url]www.theaustralian.com.au colorado at risk of defaulting loans.
"the retail apparel industry in particular has experienced declining margins and market size."
I do not expect Colorado are alone, although I think it is the big ticket retailers who are suffering the most.


Thanks for that percy .... on one hand good to see private equity losing money because of high levels of debt but sad to that such greed impacts the day to day operations of a profitable well run business

Looks like punters won't be sucked into providing cash to these greedy predators in 2012 now ... IPO off the table I would say

[percy]

Looks like punters won't be sucked into providing cash to these greedy predators in 2012 now ... IPO off the table I would say[/QUOTE]

They are not alone.Redgroup who own Whitcoulls and Borders are in the same "leaky" boat. !!!

[winner69]

Looks like punters won't be sucked into providing cash to these greedy predators in 2012 now ... IPO off the table I would say

They are not alone.Redgroup who own Whitcoulls and Borders are in the same "leaky" boat. !!![/QUOTE]

Anybody who borrows more than they can afford deserve what they get eh ... as well as the greedy suppliers of that dosh ..... they deserve to lose as well

The worlds gone mad with debt and now we (all) are suffering ..... the world needs to stop borrowing as much and get back to old fashioned values

[percy]

]

Anybody who borrows more than they can afford deserve what they get eh ... as well as the greedy suppliers of that dosh ..... they deserve to lose as well

The worlds gone mad with debt and now we (all) are suffering ..... the world needs to stop borrowing as much and get back to old fashioned values[/QUOTE]

The over debted companies make things very difficult for a numder of people; landlords,staff,and suppliers.Staff look for safer jobs.Landlords look for stronger tnants.Suppliers are just left to pray. !!!

[percy]

But,wait there's more.!
www.theaustralian.com.au/business.
Tough times for our retailers. Rebel joins the list.

[winner69]

But,wait there's more.!
www.theaustralian.com.au/business.
Tough times for our retailers. Rebel joins the list.

Oh dear oh dear ..... private equity and greedy lenders to take another hit


Shame really as Rebel actually trading quite well and would be doing OK if run on old fashioned principles

[winner69]

Percy - things seem to be on a roll in Australia

http://www.theage.com.au/national/retailers-rake-it-in-despite-crusade-over-online-sales-20110108-19jgk.html

[percy]

Yeah,right.
May be ?
Sorry if I am doubtfull.

[h2so4]

A little off subject but I get the feeling KMD could well be a takeover candidate in 2011.

[Balance]

A little off subject but I get the feeling KMD could well be a takeover candidate in 2011.

And who would want to takeover an entity that was heavily geared up and sold back to the market for a huge profit just a year ago?

[h2so4]

A company that wants a bigger presence in the Aust market enter the NZ market and take advantage of a low NZ dollar and low valuation.

[Balance]

A company that wants a bigger presence in the Aust market enter the NZ market and take advantage of a low NZ dollar and low valuation.

Low NZ$? The kiwi just hit a 5 year high against the Euro!

[h2so4]

Ha! yes you are right.:)

[winner69]

Hey Percey ... does look like all the gloom and doom in the papers is just in the minds of the journos looking for a story

KMD on fire .... same store sales up heaps ..... and heck those fantastic margins even getting better

From the announcement -

Kathmandu's Chief Executive Officer Peter Halkett said that strong sales erformance in December and for the month to date in January in both Australia and New Zealand, coupled with improved gross margins have been the primary reasons for the year on year increase. "We have been pleased with our trading performance throughout the Christmas period", said Mr Halkett,

[percy]

Hey Percey ... does look like all the gloom and doom in the papers is just in the minds of the journos looking for a story

KMD on fire .... same store sales up heaps ..... and heck those fantastic margins even getting better

From the announcement -

Kathmandu's Chief Executive Officer Peter Halkett said that strong sales erformance in December and for the month to date in January in both Australia and New Zealand, coupled with improved gross margins have been the primary reasons for the year on year increase. "We have been pleased with our trading performance throughout the Christmas period", said Mr Halkett,

It is good to be proven wrong.!!!!!

[minimoke]

KMD on fire .... same store sales up heaps ..... and heck those fantastic margins even getting better

KMD remains 10% below IPO list price and still well of the high of $2.57

[winner69]

KMD remains 10% below IPO list price and still well of the high of $2.57

Almost back to IPO price now and the NZX see,s to have only gone up 5% in the same time period

maybe a long hard road who bought into the hype of the IPO but a great buy for those who could see through the crap that was being written about KMD then

Suppose that's what investing is all about .... buying when medium/long term returns are liekly to be above average (but managing the downside in the process)

I would say over the next year KMD will still outperform most retail stocks ... thats my story and i am sticking to it

[minimoke]

A
I would say over the next year KMD will still outperform most retail stocks ... thats my story and i am sticking to it
But what if retail doesn't do very well - out performing non performers isn't much of an aspiration.

Haven't really followed KMD for a while but will put back on watchlist. As an aside any idea why KMD isn't part of the NZX Consumer Index?

[winner69]

But what if retail doesn't do very well - out performing non performers isn't much of an aspiration.

Haven't really followed KMD for a while but will put back on watchlist. As an aside any idea why KMD isn't part of the NZX Consumer Index?

Good point ... seem to be classed a Textiles and Apparel company alongside CAV .... prob seen as a manufacturwe and not a retailer ...... even though PPL is in the consumer sector

[minimoke]

Good point ... seem to be classed a Textiles and Apparel company alongside CAV .... prob seen as a manufacturwe and not a retailer ...... even though PPL is in the consumer sector
Well theres a quote for the "NZX What a Joke" Thread

[winner69]

ASX has it as a retailer

[minimoke]

Goes to show where the brains and common sense are. And NZX wanted to take over the NSX. Laughable!

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Fisherfunds NZ growth hold KMD - should provide a boost overnight ...

[winner69]

This dude from Deutsche is my man -- increasing his valuation from 160 to 265 .... he is on to it but didn't have too many clues a few months ago ... obviously a man who goes with what he reads in the paper and has no belief in his own fantastic strategic thinking ... like if he believes KMD has a 'proven track record of opening stores' and that the 'store roll out is likely to provide a buffer for any potentialmacrooeconomic headwinds' why was it a hold at 160 ... should have been a raving buy. Must get my hands on the full report

Anyway with all these analyst upgardes the price should continue to go up .... eh

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/analysts-upgrade-retailer-kathmandus-rating/story-e6frg8zx-1225991951417


ANALYSTS have upgraded or maintained their buy recommendation on outdoor clothing and camping retailer Kathmandu, which defied the retail downturn with a profit upgrade following strong sales over Christmas and New Year.

Deutsche Bank upgraded its recommendation from "hold' to "buy" and increased its price target from $NZ1.60 ($1.23) per share to $NZ2.65.

"Growth from Kathmandu's store rollout is likely to provide a buffer to any potential macroeconomic headwinds and rising cost pressures," it said.

"Kathmandu has a proven track record of opening stores and we are forecasting 15 new stores in each of 2011, 2012 and 2013. The risk here is cannibalisation, which reduced comparable store sales by 1.1 per cent in 2010," analyst Alexi Baker-McLennan said.

[macduffy]

RBS Australia ups its recommendation from Hold to Buy.



"KMD - KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED
RBS Australia rates KMD as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) - The broker sees the main impact of the earthquake in New Zealand on the company being the distribution of stock, but it expects this will be resolved in coming days.
With insurance to cover the loss of profits and additional costs the broker has not made adjustments to earnings estimates. Recent share price weakness generates an upgrade to a Buy rating.

Target price is $1.74 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.24 If KMD meets the RBS Australia target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July. RBS Australia forecasts a full year FY11 dividend of 7.02 cents and EPS of 13.26 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.68%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.32.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values. Market Sentiment: 0.8

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.5, implying annual growth of N/A.Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.Current consensus price target is $2.05, suggesting upside of 36.5%(ex-dividends).Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources "

[macduffy]

Considering all the negative talk regarding KMD's IPO it's probably not surprising that no-one's commented on their unexpectedly good interim result, against the prevailing "retail" trend.

Inventories are much higher than a year earlier although net borrowings have been held around previous levels with the increase financed from operating cash flow. As usual, the winter season will determine the tone of the full year result.

Disc: No, I don't hold any either but will admit to spending over $300 this morning at the Summit Club Day before the "Easter escape sale" starting tomorrow.

[minimoke]

Considering all the negative talk regarding KMD's IPO it's probably not surprising that no-one's commented on their unexpectedly good interim result, against the prevailing "retail" trend.

I'm not sure what kind of comment is expected when SP (@$2.22) is now at the same level as the IPO one and a bit years later

[macduffy]

Well, for starters, that's a rather better performance than many of its peers, eg WHS, PPL and PPG's SPs are down between 17 and 32% over the same period. Not nearly as good as HLG of course who managed a decent increase, but I don't hold them either!

[minimoke]

Well, for starters, that's a rather better performance than many of its peers, eg WHS, PPL and PPG's SPs are down between 17 and 32% over the same period. Not nearly as good as HLG of course who managed a decent increase, but I don't hold them either!
Lets also look at the others. BRI up around $0.20, COL up $0.20, KRK up $0.20, MHI up $0.30, RBD up $0.5 and TUA up $0.30.

Going down was ECO (no surprise there) and RNS and SCY has done as well as KMD - gone nowhere.,

So I make that 7 up, 4 down and 3 nowhere. The KMD IPO now looks like a coin toss. Unfortunately for buyers it din't land right side up.

[percy]

Well, for starters, that's a rather better performance than many of its peers, eg WHS, PPL and PPG's SPs are down between 17 and 32% over the same period. Not nearly as good as HLG of course who managed a decent increase, but I don't hold them either!

Considering how tuff retail is,and the poor out look for retail I will be the first to admit surprise at how well they have done.In fact I can not figure out how they have achieved going against the tide. However, I retain the view that retail stocks are best avoided.As allways I am pleased to be proved wrong.

[macduffy]

Lets also look at the others. BRI up around $0.20, COL up $0.20, KRK up $0.20, MHI up $0.30, RBD up $0.5 and TUA up $0.30.

Going down was ECO (no surprise there) and RNS and SCY has done as well as KMD - gone nowhere.,

So I make that 7 up, 4 down and 3 nowhere. The KMD IPO now looks like a coin toss. Unfortunately for buyers it din't land right side up.

Well, I was looking at the (mainly) apparel-type retailers.

But pleased to have generated a bit of debate! The NZ threads in particular seem to have already gone into hibernation for the winter.

[minimoke]

The NZ threads in particular seem to have already gone into hibernation for the winter.
Talking of winter here's a prediction. KMD will go gang busters in Christchurch. Here you have tens of thousands of people with no heating and a dodgy electrical supply with hundreds if not thousands of workers coming in to fix things up. What is one thing they will need in the upcoming months - warm gear! Heres a chance for KMD to flog off all their thermals and wet weather gear

[percy]

Talking of winter here's a prediction. KMD will go gang busters in Christchurch. Here you have tens of thousands of people with no heating and a dodgy electrical supply with hundreds if not thousands of workers coming in to fix things up. What is one thing they will need in the upcoming months - warm gear! Heres a chance for KMD to flog off all their thermals and wet weather gear

Not just KMD.Any business still open is doing very well,in fact exceptionally well.!!! Except Whitcoulls !!!

[forest]

Noticed that for the last few days the share price of KMD is not only rising soon after (7c) ex dividend date but also on increased volume.
Direct broking shows on their site that large volumes (so far today all) are international trades.

I am wondering about a couple of things.

1st - International trades would that include Aus?

2e - Anybody cares to speculate what is going on if anything?

Disc Bought some for my trading portfolio in August and enjoying this one so far.

[winner69]

So KMD have a touch of the retail blues as well .... joining the growing list of patients

Sudden drop in fortunes means EBITDA for H1 less than last year ..... after saying on Nov 18th things were pretty honky dory ..... suggests that H2 will be pretty tough as well ..... so the $39m NPAT last year is not going to be this years number

Even at $35m a price of 210 is pretty rich ........ maybe under $2 soon ... after all they did say that to combat the poor market conditions they were going to ahve more promotional activity .... prob didn't think they would the shares in the sale though

[winner69]

Sale started in aussie .... you don't upset aussies just before xmas when they have been burnt by BBG and JBH already this week

Jeez 123 in oz = 164 odd in NZ ..... hope NZers got out before the oz market opened

Even 165 is a PE more than 10 .... with growth maybe about right ... those aussies are pretty good at calculating what a share is really worth eh .... can't beat a clever aussie

[percy]

With Xmas trading being hard,most retailers are in for another long difficult year.Retail is still not the place to be.
I wonder how online sales are going at present.?

[troyvdh]

...at times its great to reflect on the posts made near the IPO....what amazes me is that folk in NZ are faced with this dilemma.....Stop spending...Stop...its either Mr Hickey or what ever....so that then is a clear message...next are confronted with front pages indicating that "the retail area" are in the death zone...re slow sales.....what to do ??????.....its my belief that if more folk were to travel and view how most of humanity live...like i was in Cuba a few weeks back...they live on 25-30 NZ dollars a week...

...when we in NZ need to review shopping in malls as a form of entertainment/family bonding...things may change...do we all remember when that new shopping mall opened in Auckland...IT CREATED TRAFFIC jams...yes it was/is true...

[h2so4]

Costco recently opened a new store in Sydney that caused? You guessed it traffic jams.

40 hour Xmas shopping marathon starts in Sydney.

Long live retail.:)

[Jaa]

There are now 4 outdoor clothing/travel/adventure shops in downtown Tauranga (hardly a thriving shopping district as Tauranga is over malled), Bivouc Outdoor, Macpac, Mountain Designs and Kathmandu along with the area's original sports and hunting stores.

So while this retail segment has obviously been relatively high growth in the last few years, as what always happens in a competitive market, plenty of competition has emerged to meet the demand. Without new market's Kathmandu's best days are behind it.

[drillfix]

Hi folks,
I dont post much in the NZ thread, however surprised to not see a thread in the ASX section.

Thought I would throw you all up a quick chart showing yesterdays whooping as follows:


KMD daily and weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/dxs5kz390ixq1fnqd6l_Katmandu.png


Support technically appears at $1.19 yet today $1.23 held the fort quite nicely even though such a huge fall or gap down.

Also should the 1.19 level happen to break, then for whatever reason the $1.00 level becomes a bit of a psychological target for whatever reason while the market move with the madness we can find ourselves dealing with however it also still a time to be cautious imo.

Take care traders and holders, and good luck for any long term holders as you will need it, and I hope truly that a bounce come for you to ease any significant losses if any.

Cheers~!

[drillfix]

Well, at present it appears I am wrong, as there is a bit of a xmas bounce, although not a huge trading day but upward movement nonetheless.

[CJ]

I see AMP sold a big chunk recently. Did they get out before the drop? Did they know something the market didn't know or where they just lucky?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/6184622/AMP-sells-chunk-of-Kathmandu-shares

[winner69]

Besides the latest disclosure they also sold 2 million odd between August and December 6th

I'd say good fundamental analysis led to tehm reducing their holdings .... but no doubt at soem cost .... but the 7% odd they have left will grow in value eh

So at the end of the day Kiwisaver investors are affected


At least not averaging down

[Corporate]

According to the market update, full year profit growth is still possible.

Is there really likely? If they could keep NPAT at $39m that would be a great achievement and leave KMD on a PE of 8.8 which is fairly attractive isn't it?

[percy]

I do not think it is likely as Xmas trading is such an important selling period for retailers.To move stock they will need to promote and cut margins which will affect profits.
That said I feel the market has over reacted.KMD brand is very strong and the company appears to be very well run.

[percy]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10775083

Good link.I think if I was a KMD shareholder I would be checking out Campbell Junor statements,and doing my own comparison of MacPac and KMD stores.If Macpac stores are better then sell KMD.

[CJ]

I have noticed Macpac setting up their own stores recently. They also seem to have quit a few sales on - not as much as KMD but more than end of summer/winter sales.

I am not an investor but if I was, it would be interesting to know if KMD manly sold cloths or a good mixture of equipment. If the later, I would expect the lead in to Winter to be big for them as people buy warm/wet weather gear. If camping equipment was a big component, then a slow period into Christmas would be seen as a very bad sign.

[Corporate]

I've had a look around three KMD stores during the Christmas period and I must say they seem dead. I really expected to see more people buying!

Compare this to JBHifi. The Willis street store today was manic! The line to the counter was longer than the girls toilets at a festival. TV's were being carried out of the store like i'd never seen!

[ratkin]

Katmandu dont seem to sell much serious gear. The rea;l hardcore adventurer people would buy from elsewhere.

I suspect Katmandu rely more on good weather than a good xmas. They need all the masses to go camping. When they first started up people flocked to their massive sales thinking they were getting a bargain. However the public soon saw through it and realised that most the sales were misleading

[Corporate]

Katmandu dont seem to sell much serious gear. The rea;l hardcore adventurer people would buy from elsewhere.

I suspect Katmandu rely more on good weather than a good xmas. They need all the masses to go camping. When they first started up people flocked to their massive sales thinking they were getting a bargain. However the public soon saw through it and realised that most the sales were misleading

Your right. I don't buy anything from KMD unless I'm getting 40-50% off. Which in reality is about 20% off..

[GTM 3442]

Your right. I don't buy anything from KMD unless I'm getting 40-50% off. Which in reality is about 20% off..

Yeah. I don't know anyone who admits to buying anything at Kathmandu unless it's at sale time.

[percy]

I could never see what the attraction was here. You've had two players, being Cameron and private equity squeeze all the value they think they can extract from KMD in the last 5 years. On top of that you have a retail environment which is soft plus increased competition in this leisure/outdoor market.

Not too mention that i think everyone has got their head around this "sale" business and that the retail price in KMD is a joke. THe sale price is the retail price and if you are dumb enough to buy there outside of the sales then you deserve whats coming.

looks as though KMD are running out of dumbies.!!!!!

[winner69]

looks as though KMD are running out of dumbies.!!!!!

but the not so 'dumbies' are still on to a good thing .... email tonite

Don't miss Kathmandu's biggest clearance sale! There's up to ]70% off the original price[/COLOR] of selected gear and over $10 million worth of stock to clear! Check out just some of the great clearance deals below or head in store or online to view more!

Plus, for our Summit Club members, we have double your discount on all full priced gear so there has never been a better time to rush in and snap up some amazing deals at Kathmandu


Might go and have a quick look .... a (branded) fleece top at $29 looks good .... even better than Postie Plus !!!!!

[percy]

Gee Whiz winner69,should we run into each other at a sharetrader get together,we will stand out as the guys wearing the new gear.
The masking tape holding my painting shorts has finally given way.Was OK at number two daughters as I was painting inside,but now I am outside at number one daughters,I decided I better go and buy a new pair.Saw a pair for $12 at The Warehouse,thought they will do me.
Well,you have guessed it,half price day only paid $6. !!!!!!!

[Jay]

So if you are a Summit Club member and you wish to purchase someting at 70% off you will get 140% off, so they will pay you to take it away! I think I'll join :D

[Blendy]

oh grrr, i just discovered i hadn't added a big purchase of KMD to my portfolio just before they went downhill... *red red red* :(

[winner69]

Interesting chart in this article

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Retail-Westfield-Australia-rents-tenants-online-re-pd20120131-QZQXU?OpenDocument&src=sph&src=rot

branded clothing retailers have a pretty high proportion of on line sales .... no doubt the way KMD have to go

[percy]

KMD have three on line selling sites,www.kathmandu.co.nz www.kathmandu.co.uk and www.kathmandu.com.au all powered by "our good friends" www.estaronline.com.
On the king buys postie plus thread I have posted a lot about clothing on line sales in NZ.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Ouch.
o NPAT down NZ$4.5m to NZ$6.0m.

[percy]

Interesting to note on line sales are up 50%.

[The BOWMAN]

Price sudden drop with huge volume. Is this the same pattern before the last announcement?

[winner69]

Things tracking nicely ...good second half so next year should be pretty good

Double digit plus return on KMD next year .....solid but not up up and away stuff

[forest]

Notice large volume sold in the last 5 days, 18.5mil shares out of a total of app 200 mil shares, this is more than 9% turnover.

Anybody likes to speculate of the significance if any???

[CJ]

Don't you know that people only buy Kathmandu when it is 50% off. ;)

[percy]

I've been taking a quick look at Kathmandu, and I'm wondering whether its woefully underpriced?

I personally dislike retail as a sector, but KMD strikes me as a company that is priced too cheaply for a variety of reasons.

I know its just gone ex dividend, but even so, price of $1.75 or so strikes me as an opportunity.

My spreadsheet of lies and distortions (various metrics mostly based on EPS and earnings growth) thinks KMD is around 50% undervalued. (Assumptions, EPS TTM of 17.4cps and an average earnings growth rate of 8% for the next five years).

Am I missing something about this company, or are investors very skeptical about their earnings potential in UK and Australia?


Retail here,Australia and I expect UK is tuff going,with Briscoes and Hallensteins expecting hard times,[and they are the out performers].
The best research you can do is go look at a store,and ask yourself whether you would buy anything from them?Or is the whole business based on the "sales" they have, where their grossly overpriced products come down to being just dam dear? Do you like their range,store layout,staff,and presentation,Ask staff if they are a good firm to work for and how busy they are.?With retail rent,wages etc must be paid .You can't compete with internet.How good is KMD's web site? Then ask yourself do you really want to be in retail? If the answer is yes,take a cold shower,and keep taking a cold shower until your moment of weakness clears.!!! lol.

[Anna Naum]

Nice update and SP move yesterday. Now if they can just sort out the Xmas/NY sale period........

[ENP]

I do a lot of the time with retail - I don't have any retail stocks in NZ/AUS right now. However, I have some historical reasons for liking retail, some money can be made here as the Normans and Rod Duke have done. No question though that the internet has utterly disrupted the business model, say compared to the big box mentality of 1995 or so.

It is not as bad as airlines, where one year of disaster will wipe out a generation of earnings.

I looked into purchasing Kathmandu around January this year but the more research I did, the less I liked it.

On the surface it looks like a good business. It has built up a great brand and when ever I think of warm winter thermals or jumpers, I think of Kathmandu. The same can be said of its outdoor adventure range. It has this brand awareness very strong in NZ, not so much in AUS or the UK. However, it is aiming to roll out more stores and be much bigger in Australia with a plan to open much more new stores in the coming year, predominantly in AUS. It has roots set in NZ, AUS and the UK. Overseas exposure is great, compared to someone like The Warehouse who is solely dependant on NZ.

The danger is the amount of other companies that are beginning to get into that market in the same countries. Look at the likes of Macpac, North Face, etc all coming into the NZ and AUS markets. These companies have comparative quality but can edge out Kathmandu on price on numerous product lines. Walking around Albany (Auckland) shopping centre last week, Kathmandu didn't have the amount of foot traffic that others had in the area, which concerned me, considering the Xmas, New Year period brings in about a 3rd of their yearly revenue.

Looking into the nitty gritty of the financials and there are is a mixed bag. I like the look of the growth of revenue since listing. From 246 million in 2010 to 347 million in 2012. Remarkable growth. They have understood with their size they need upgrades in logistics, building a new distribution centre is a wise investment. However, if you look at the increasing inventory that it holds, the inventory turnover increasing and then the decreasing gross and net margins of that inventory, it shows me that the only way it is getting product out the door is to reduce prices and discount heavily. According to their last investor presentation, it is going to hold or minimally increase the amount of SKU's (number of products) which means there are lots of the same products piling up, which they need to get rid of before next seasons fashion kicks in. Compare this to a brand everyone loves, such as Coca Cola or Apple Ipods. People buy full price without waiting for a huge 60% off sale (such as what Kathmandu is having right now). That is the power of a brand, not just the power of a sale to get customers in the door. I also do not like the increase in debt levels since last year and the reduced return on equity and assets. Showing me that with the more stores they roll out and the bigger asset base they are creating, that they are not returning as much of ever dollar to investors.

I think if I had a longer set of data to go off, rather than just 3 years. I would make a much more clear cut decision on whether I'd invest in the company. Also, retail right now and over the next few years, I'm just not sure of. The likes of online discount retailers coming out is a red flag for me. Even though Kathmandu increased it's online sales by over 100% over the last year, I'm still not convinced.

Kathmandu's mission statement is below.

"Love of Travel & Adventure This forms the heart and soul of Kathmandu. All our daily business revolves around travel and adventure"

Which makes me think.... Do NZ, AUS and UK residents really have the extra cash to spend $300 on a jacket for adventure? When they have to pay rent, mortgages, grocery bills, petrol, medical bills, etc?

I'd love to hear your reply SparkytheClown, as we seem to have a soft spot for the same sort of companies. :D

[percy]

ENP.
KMD's business is based around it's sales. They must get a fright if someone pays full retail.
Fill up the store,take on temp staff,advertise like mad 60% off and go for it.Puffer jacket;KMD sale price [save $200] $299. Halensteins sale price a few weeks ago $69.
Bit of changing the subject,but my brother in law asked me what % of NZ book sales were made on the internet?.I thought it was getting pretty high so I said between 20% and 25%.No,according to Mike Hoskin on radio it is 45%.
It is not only books that sell on line.
According to www.estaronline.com in their letter to shareholders 21/11/12 "In the past six months we have seen some of our larger customers enjoy significant growth in their sales,and as a result a number of our clients have accelerated the development of new features and functionality.This work has kept our various production teams busy.Some customers are experiencing growth in excess of 40%.Several clients are moving to new dedicated server setups to help them cope with the actuality of these greater numbers of sales and revenue."
"Ezibuy,JB HiFi,Country Road,Briscoes,Rebel Sport,TS14+ and HealthPost are companies using Estaronline solutions who are all growing their online sales well."
The internet is making life very difficult for "high Street retailers".[such as KMD]

[Sideshow Bob]

I've always found reluctant to buy clothes on the internet, unless you have clothes from that brand where you can judge the size. You never know what they are going to be like otherwise. I would expact many people are the same. Their online sales might be at the expense of high street sales?? Buying the wrong size/colour etc is just a pain in the backside, especially if have to send it back and if overseas.

I recently had to buy a pair of overpants and seam-sealed jacket for a race I've got coming up. Going around Macpac, Mountain Designs and independent retailers with other brands, KMD was easily the poorest product offering, and in my perception the poorest value offer. Basic items that I'd thought would be right up thier alley. Bought some Marmot pants and a Macpac jacket at a better price, quality and better service.

[percy]

I've always found reluctant to buy clothes on the internet, unless you have clothes from that brand where you can judge the size. You never know what they are going to be like otherwise. I would expact many people are the same. Their online sales might be at the expense of high street sales?? Buying the wrong size/colour etc is just a pain in the backside, especially if have to send it back and if overseas.

I recently had to buy a pair of overpants and seam-sealed jacket for a race I've got coming up. Going around Macpac, Mountain Designs and independent retailers with other brands, KMD was easily the poorest product offering, and in my perception the poorest value offer. Basic items that I'd thought would be right up thier alley. Bought some Marmot pants and a Macpac jacket at a better price, quality and better service.

I too am reluctant to buy clothes on line,however some interesting figures from my post no.24 on The King buys Postie Plus thread.This is a year ago,so I expect sales are a lot higher.On line clothing sales in NZ $900mil which is approx the same level Postie Plus would need 782 stores to achieve.My point is there are a lot of people buying clothes on line.
I think your post is interesting as you were looking to buy product,and took you time to decide where you brought from, taking into account price,quality and service.That is true market research.

[janner]

asked me what % of NZ book sales were made on the internet?.I thought it was getting pretty high so I said between 20% and 25%.No,according to Mike Hoskin on radio it is 45%.

Would have to agree with that statement Percy..
Over the past three years all of my book purchases ( 3 new and 1 used. " Trade Me " ) have been over the internet..

No one is going to make much profit out of my buying no matter where or how it is done :-))

[janner]

I prefer dirt/oil under the finger nails type of operations..

You can always find some one to sell you clothing.. or .. A cup of coffee..

[winner69]

asked me what % of NZ book sales were made on the internet?.I thought it was getting pretty high so I said between 20% and 25%.No,according to Mike Hoskin on radio it is 45%.

Would have to agree with that statement Percy..
Over the past three years all of my book purchases ( 3 new and 1 used. " Trade Me " ) have been over the internet..

No one is going to make much profit out of my buying no matter where or how it is done :-))

I bought 2 real books this year .....1 from a real book shop and the other from Amazon ..... and many others that reside on the iPad


Clothes .... mainly from real shops but if you look at some of the software thats around getting custom made stuff isn't that far away

[CJ]

Which makes me think.... Do NZ, AUS and UK residents really have the extra cash to spend $300 on a jacket for adventure? When they have to pay rent, mortgages, grocery bills, petrol, medical bills, etc?The answer is definately yes. Before I had a kid, that was me. The issue is if you have $300 to spend on a jacket, would you buy KMD.

Other than merino's, I have no KMD stuff, and that is only because icebreaker is so expensive for an underlayer no one will see.

Macpac seems to be making a real push into KMD's space. Isn't Jan Cameron behind them (their sales recently suggest yes).

[CJ]

http://www.idealog.co.nz/blog/2013/01/calling-next-jan-cameron

Interesting reading on KMD and Macpac (for non-shareholders. Shareholders might not be that happy)

[GR8DAY]

WOW!......that's pretty heavy stuff, thank god Im NOT a shareholder. We do a bit of tramping and it's always been clearly obvious to me the mass-marketing, psuedo-discounting of Kathmandu is a hoax.......as are most of the products they stock. I was surprised however to read of the brand MACPAC being drawn into this also.......they were an iconic highest quality brand in NZ.......so that's a SAD tale if true? Still, there is plenty of competition (choice) out there now. The first thing Katmandu should do in my opinion is get rid of all that disgusting heavy plastic packaging they use.......enough to put any genuine OUTDOORS PERSON off their junk for good!!

[enzed staffy]

haha, the pastic packaging are their clothes!

[gv1]

Wow, very interesting. Share price not affected though.

[ENP]

http://www.idealog.co.nz/blog/2013/01/calling-next-jan-cameron

Interesting reading on KMD and Macpac (for non-shareholders. Shareholders might not be that happy)

One persons opinion...

[kizame]

One persons opinion...

No,if you read the responces at the bottom of the article,you will find it is a widespread opinion by people whom use that sort of equipment for what it is supposed to be for.
I have been in to Katmandu recently and on other ocasions,but NEVER to buy,although they do stock a bit of mountainbiking equipment.
They are so overpriced it's laughable,if you go during the sales you may get something reasonably priced,but really $700 for a an all weather jacket?

[troyvdh]

....I bike a bit....have pedelled across the Atacama desert....base camp...(Tibet side)...and the supposedly the highest road on Earth....in Kashmir...when it comes to clothing...it comes down to layers....what do i mean....simple really.....but good quality stuff is good......GORTEX is the ultimate....trust me...having said that ...clothing from Kat....has been good....again it comes down to how one applies the knowledge of those who have been before....it aint rocket science...cheers

[Dej]

I agree that Kathmandu is pretty overpriced for what they are, but when I think of buying some 'adventure outdoor gear', its the first place I think of. So, in that respect, they have done a good job in marketing, and to make more money what do you do? reduce the cost of making your gear (make it in china from cheaper materials) and hike the price. All we need now is another 'adventure specialist' clothing company to start up and take a stab at the market.

We are also supposedly one of the most adventurous places in the world!!

:p

[kizame]

....I bike a bit....have pedelled across the Atacama desert....base camp...(Tibet side)...and the supposedly the highest road on Earth....in Kashmir...when it comes to clothing...it comes down to layers....what do i mean....simple really.....but good quality stuff is good......GORTEX is the ultimate....trust me...having said that ...clothing from Kat....has been good....again it comes down to how one applies the knowledge of those who have been before....it aint rocket science...cheers

Brilliant! The Atacama desert is one place I have always wanted to travel,sth america,never planned to bike there though,interesting.

[CJ]

One persons opinion...Its more than one person.

However, most people just buy for fashion, not for hardcore outdoors (like most 4wd vehicles)
and everyone knows to wait till the items are on special. Luckily they still make money on the special price.

[Under Surveillance]

I agree that Kathmandu is pretty overpriced for what they are, but when I think of buying some 'adventure outdoor gear', its the first place I think of. So, in that respect, they have done a good job in marketing, and to make more money what do you do? reduce the cost of making your gear (make it in china from cheaper materials) and hike the price. All we need now is another 'adventure specialist' clothing company to start up and take a stab at the market.

Not sure that they do a good job in marketing. I was in the Kathmandu store in Petone yesterday (Monday). The racks, shelves, etc were festooned with tape with the message that the sale (reduced) prices on the goods did not apply until Thursday. Needless to say no-one was buying and the 4 staff at the counter were idle. If it were not for the need to give refunds or exchanges for faulty products, or to relay them to Christchurch for repairs or fixes under warranty, the store would have been better closed Monday to Wednesday.

[J R Ewing]

Not sure that they do a good job in marketing. I was in the Kathmandu store in Petone yesterday (Monday). The racks, shelves, etc were festooned with tape with the message that the sale (reduced) prices on the goods did not apply until Thursday. Needless to say no-one was buying and the 4 staff at the counter were idle. If it were not for the need to give refunds or exchanges for faulty products, or to relay them to Christchurch for repairs or fixes under warranty, the store would have been better closed Monday to Wednesday.

Agree. Nobody in their right mind would pay more than 70% of the "normal" retail price for anything at Kathmandu. From that perspective, if it isn't on sale then the shop is basically closed for business on that item.

[noodles]

Nobody in their right mind would pay more than 70% of the "normal" retail price for anything at Kathmandu.

You could say that for other retailers as well. Esp. Briscoes and Farmers.

[macduffy]

A lot of disdain for Kathmandu products on this site but we can't scoff at their profits!

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130201/pdf/42cs78826t02jl.pdf

:cool:

[macduffy]

Meanwhile ....... nice profits for those who held during the last six months as the KMD SP rose from $1.30 to $2.30!

No, not me.

:mellow:

[macduffy]

It's always sad to learn of the death of one of our - or at least Australia's - successful business leaders. James Strong, Chairman of Kathmandu died recently at the relatively young age of 68 from complications following surgery. Best known as CEO of Qantas in better times I would think but also prominent in business in other fields.

[percy]

It's always sad to learn of the death of one of our - or at least Australia's - successful business leaders. James Strong, Chairman of Kathmandu died recently at the relatively young age of 68 from complications following surgery. Best known as CEO of Qantas in better times I would think but also prominent in business in other fields.

He certainly had a wide range of interests and skills.A much respected leader.A sad loss.

[tosspot]

strange trading patterns today. They announce a solid result shares fly up then straight back down and now with no support for buyers.

[steve fleming]

Hopefully Roger Montgomery publicly acknowledging a position in KMD doesn't put the kiss of death on the stock as is often the case.

Kathmandu weathers changing retail climate


The school holidays are upon us, and the mid-year break is typically marked with a family camping trip in the country. Indeed, there may be many readers that have already escaped! If this is the case, then it bodes well for Kathmandu’s winter sale.Kathmandu specialises in selling outdoor clothing and camping equipment in Australia and New Zealand. The winter sale in June and July is the company’s largest promotional event each year, and weather is a key variant to the event’s success – the colder and wetter the winter, the more clothing, equipment and ski-gear is sold.Kathmandu management flagged in May that autumn was unseasonably warm and dry for both Australia and New Zealand. This factor made it important for the company’s winter sale to be a success. Yet a dichotomy seems to be forming between the Australian and New Zealand climates, in terms of both a meteorological and a retail sense.Winter appears to be well and truly underway in New Zealand. The ski season started with record snowfalls, and temperatures are now reaching sub-zero levels, with the wind-chill factor intensifying the conditions. Australia, conversely, has had a relatively slow start to winter. The ski season opened in June with almost no snow, and conditions have not improved much since. Temperatures have been mild, though June has been very wet, which would encourage purchases of water-resistant clothing.While the differing severity of the weather will be influencing sales in the two countries, it seems that the retail climate in Australia is being made tougher by consumer sentiment. A number of New Zealand retailers that have a presence in both New Zealand and Australia have recently provided earnings updates, and it appears that New Zealand operations are meeting expectations, but Australian operations are underperforming.

Hallenstein Glasson, a specialty fashion retailer, recently announced that larger Australian chains have commenced winter clearances earlier than usual, and there is now considerable pressure on margins for the balance of the winter season. Pumpkin Patch, which designs and sells premium clothing for children, has echoed this sentiment. Management has seen a significant increase in the level of promotional activity in the Australian market in recent weeks, with major retailers entering end of season sales far more aggressively than normal.The Australian market comprises over 60% of Kathmandu’s sales, and such a low level of consumer confidence is one of the key risks to the company’s second half-year performance (to July 31, 2013).Kathmandu’s underlying earnings rely on promotions because of the premium mark-up that is applied to stock. While Kathmandu’s products are perceived to be of a high quality, many people will only make purchases during these sales events. It is therefore crucial for the company to sustain margins, and any persistent abnormal warmness during the season could translate to further discounts to clear stock.

I hold a position in Kathmandu, and am impressed with the company’s growth plans and confident in the ability of management to execute their strategy. The group had 120 stores in 2012, and is targeting 170 stores in the coming years. The company is also refreshing its brand through new product and store designs to increase its global appeal.
As a value investor, my focus is on the long-term potential of Kathmandu, though I am mindful of the effect that short-term fluctuations in the retail climate will have on the company’s profitability.
In May, management was confident of posting a strong performance for the full-year, and, as at the time of writing, is yet to announce an earnings update. As such, I am a happy camper when it comes to investing in Kathmandu, and eagerly await reporting season.

Read more at Eureka Report: http://www.eurekareport.com.au/article/2013/7/3/retail-stocks/kathmandu-weathers-changing-retail-climate#ixzz2YIvcXaeg

[winner69]

KMD at 300 ..... don't think it has been ever this high before

A year ago down and out some said .... all that discounting will ruin them ..... and stuff far too expensive .... that Mac place will kill them ..... and retail is not the place to be

Well shareprice has doubled in just over a year

What a story ... well done Katmandu

[percy]

Great to be proved wrong.!!!

[macduffy]

No comments on the KMD result?

Another company showing that retail isn't a complete disaster - profits up, shareprice responds!

Disc: But I'm not holding.

:(

[winner69]

Doing well aren't they ....seen to know how to make a buck or two in the current environment

No doubt understanding the consumer is key

Interesting a few instos, ACC and Milford, sold down in the last month ....but then they have heaps anyway so doing well ...just could have been more

[777]

Doing well aren't they ....seen to know how to make a buck or two in the current environment

No doubt understanding the consumer is key

Interesting a few instos, ACC and Milford, sold down in the last month ....but then they have heaps anyway so doing well ...just could have been more

Have to pay for their Meridian some how.

[777]

Doing well aren't they ....seen to know how to make a buck or two in the current environment

No doubt understanding the consumer is key

Interesting a few instos, ACC and Milford, sold down in the last month ....but then they have heaps anyway so doing well ...just could have been more

Have to pay for their Meridian some how.

[percy]

No comments on the KMD result?

Another company showing that retail isn't a complete disaster - profits up, shareprice responds!

Disc: But I'm not holding.

:(

Keeps on surprising me.
I have never thought much of their model,and don't like retail stocks at all.
In fact I am enjoying being proved wrong.!!!! Like more retailers to "sock it to me!"

[Sideshow Bob]

I wouldn't buy their product, so hard to buy their shares - I just don't like the 'double the price and then sell most in a half-price sale'. It works for Briscoe too.

But good luck to 'em!

[baller18]

I wouldn't buy their product, so hard to buy their shares - I just don't like the 'double the price and then sell most in a half-price sale'. It works for Briscoe too.

But good luck to 'em!

KMD has double the share price in a year, time for their half price sale? lol

[Jay]

I see plenty of "Kiwis" that have bought their stuff, nearly every third person walking up Queen is waering a puffer jacket of theirs lately

Don't own the shares, don't own any of their clothing

[baller18]

haha I gotta admit, my family, friends are all into kathamandu's outwear for some reason, don't own any have thought they are overpriced...
Can get much better labels overseas for cheaper or similar prices...

[gv1]

Saw a jacket priced $300, very similar one in w/house for $80.
Wanted to buy hiking bag, asked staff if it was waterproof. They said none of bags they sold were water proof. Why so expensive then?

[macduffy]

Don't knock it, folks. I daresay none of us would buy anything from Smiggle, either, but that doesn't stop it from being popular with a certain demographic - and being highly profitable!

:cool:

[winner69]

How Kathmandu achieved its massive 27% profit increase – and what you can learn
Wednesday, 25 September 2013 11:34
PATRICK STAFFORD

Kathmandu shares rise 5% on massive profit jump; Nine sets IPO for December: Midday Roundup

A 27% increase in full-year net profit, like-for-like sales growth of 5.6% and a gross profit margin of 63%– these are results unheard of in the retail industry.

And yet, they’re exactly what Kathmandu has been able to achieve. The camping and outdoor gear retailer not only managed to boost profit to $NZ44.2 million, but its cost of doing business has even dropped by 30 basis points as a percentage of sales.

“These results are absolutely stunning,” says retail expert David Gordon of Advantage Advisors.

Retail Doctor Group chief executive Brian Walker told SmartCompany the Kathmandu results are a lesson in “focusing on the core of good retailing”.

So how did the New Zealand-based company manage to not only meet but completely exceed any expectations the market had? (Shares jumped over 11% yesterday.)

Gordon says there are plenty of factors at work here – but one is the store network itself. Not only has the company closed stores that weren’t performing, but the targeting of new locations has been incredibly precise.

But it’s not just the store locations that are doing wonders. Kathmandu has been shrewd in making sure the company doesn’t pay more than it has to – rent as an overall percentage of sales remained flat, but was offset by exchange rate transitions and leverage.

Meanwhile, operating costs have fallen by 30 basis points due to lower costs in operating the online business.

The success of the company’s small-store format has been noted, and many new stores are following the same principle – reducing square footage has led to a number of benefits.

Online sales have been strong, growing over 55% year-on-year to 4% of total sales. The company’s social media reach is significant, operating busy accounts on all the major networks with a sophisticated site network.

The company noted improvements are also underway, including an “optimisation and international shipping capability on new online platforms”.

But Walker says the company does more than just operate its network well.

“The lesson for me here is that Kathmandu is really focused on the fundamentals of retail,” he says.

“Kathmandu is all about adventure. It has a theme that’s very appealing, and it speaks to the way people use their leisure time.

“Their message is good, the store experience is good, and they don’t drift from what they are.”

David Gordon says the company’s success comes due to the fact it “keeps its finger on the pulse”.

“It has a very good reputation in the eyes of customers – it stands for something. They’ve never deviated from what they’ve stood for.”

http://www.smartcompany.com.au/retail/057692-how-kathmandu-achieved-its-massive-27-profit-increase-and-what-you-can-learn.html?utm_source=SmartCompany&utm_campaign=90d058841d-Friday_25_September_201325_09_2013&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_234118efee-90d058841d-93021674

[kizame]

Wow this thread has gone quiet,if you look at the charts,a consolidation has taken place and now the price is lifting on volume,note their end of half year was Jan,so lifting in anticipation? This looks as good as SUM at the moment.

[drswag]

KMD 1H FY14 Results and Interim report
Links to NZX announcements below

KMD 1HFY14 Results presentation (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/companies/KMD/announcements/248603)
https://www.nzx.com/companies/KMD/announcements/248603

KMD 1H FY14 Media Announcement (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/companies/KMD/announcements/248602)
https://www.nzx.com/companies/KMD/announcements/248602
(https://www.nzx.com/companies/KMD/announcements/248602)
KMD 1H FY14 Results and Interim Report (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/companies/KMD/announcements/248601)
https://www.nzx.com/companies/KMD/announcements/248601

[winner69]

Great result by business knowing what to do

Easter Sale now on ....need a new runners backpack so down there I go

Jenny Ruth on the radio this morning got stuck into CEO about the % increase in profit ...the accounts say up 9.9% but the press release says up 10.7%. Just a bit judicious rounding by the accountants he said. The 10.7% is rounding the profits and rounding the % age increase

Oh well lets just say earnings up 10% ......good enough. Just makes me wonder why companies get too clever with their reporting.

In the middle
http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/2590125

[macduffy]

Nothing to do with KMD any more but here's the latest on Jan Cameron's retail investments.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/retail/jan-cameron-closing-50-more-stores-20140611-39wrc.html

[bull....]

profit downgrade similar reasons as the warehouse

[percy]

profit downgrade similar reasons as the warehouse

I am sorry I can't give the link,but I did read a few days ago Australian retailers were finding things tough,weather and the budget blamed.
I am in Westport today.If we think retail faces challenges,Westport retailers face HUGE challenges.!!!! I just can not see how they can make a profit even if they did not have to pay rent and power.!!! Keeping shops open for long hours for so few customers must be heart breaking.

[MAC]

I am sorry I can't give the link,but I did read a few days ago Australian retailers were finding things tough,weather and the budget blamed.
I am in Westport today.If we think retail faces challenges,Westport retailers face HUGE challenges.!!!! I just can not see how they can make a profit even if they did not have to pay rent and power.!!! Keeping shops open for long hours for so few customers must be heart breaking.

There's no shortage of winter coming, might need a new rain jacket whilst there Percy, take care on the pass too;

“The largest impact of this event is likely to be in Westland and the headwaters of the Canterbury lakes and rivers. 250 to 300mm of rain could accumulate near the main divide and rainfall intensities could reach 20 to 30mm per hour.”

[Joshuatree]

Commented yesterday when i went to Katmandu on the sheer glut of product esp down jackets(which are useless if they get wet btw) they are trying to flog at big price drops. Very few buying too.

[percy]

There's no shortage of winter coming, might need a new rain jacket whilst there Percy, take care on the pass too;

“The largest impact of this event is likely to be in Westland and the headwaters of the Canterbury lakes and rivers. 250 to 300mm of rain could accumulate near the main divide and rainfall intensities could reach 20 to 30mm per hour.”

Yes tomorrow trying to return to ChCh could be a challenge.Got caught in snow last year.At least there is still a Postie Plus here in Westport should I need another woolly pully.See from their shop window they have thermals from $6.!!!

[blockhead]

The ""great winter storm'' which is coming is a load of baloney, sure there will be some rain and wind but it isn't a great winter storm as the headlines on Stuff etc are shouting out.

The way I see it snow levels will be only as low as 2000m (not down to car park level in most ski fields in NZ) and this will see most of the snow blown half way to Chile.

So, sorry Kathmandu holders, no need for too many puffer jackets from this lot !

Would love to be proved wrong and see half a metre dropped to 1000m but I don't think so.

[winner69]

Lovely warm winters day in Wellington - 19 degrees according to my weather station

But jeez 2 of these for $200 is tempting ... must get colder sometime

[Joshuatree]

"Weakness presents buying op" T/P $3.90 , Quality retail exposure"Craigs

[percy]

Lovely warm winters day in Wellington - 119 degrees according to my weather station

But jeez 2 of these for $200 is tempting ... must get colder sometime

Brought a very similar one from Hallensteins outlet shop for $25.!!
Wait for Postie clearance,may get 2 for $30.

[winner69]

Same store sales up 30% in first 6 weeks of financial year

WOW

[winner69]

Bloody Aussies not buying as much as they meant to

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/206064.pdf

[winner69]

Bloody hell - down 25% or so

The word hadn't got out - Fishers/ Milford/Super Fund buying up over the last week or so by the looks of it.

Easy peasy playing with other peoples money eh

I am interested in next day or two

[Beagle]

Be careful mate. The outlook for consumer confidence with the crisis in the mining and oil sector doesn't look good. I'd expect demand for "brand name" clothing to be very weak in the foreseeable future in Australia as consumers switch to more value based clothing. I don't think many dairy farmers will be updating their wardrobe this year either.
The other thing is look at where the Kiwi - Aussie cross rate is, over 95 cents !! Is 2015 the year when we get up to par with the Aussie and what effect on $N.Z. earnings ?

[Hoop]

Bloody hell - down 25% or so

The word hadn't got out - Fishers/ Milford/Super Fund buying up over the last week or so by the looks of it.

Easy peasy playing with other peoples money eh

I am interested in next day or two

Large investor outfits buying up Winner??....The word didn't need to go out ...just shows investor arrogance,,,eh?? .....buying into a down trending stock thinking they are bomb proof..
KMD triggered a sell when the technicals broke down at the beginning of June....Since then the multiple fails at resistance conjunction points causing this downtrend would keep a medium - long term investor out from this stock...Multiple fail points create very strong sell warnings..

The chart below is up to last Friday....so today's sudden 20% fall to currently 222c comes as no surprise to this Chartist as I know downtrending stocks always have a tendency to disappoint..

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/KMD19122014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/KMD19122014.png.html)

[winner69]

Seems to have turned to custard since David Kirk took over as Chairman

Good guy that David ... but some things he touches turns to custard

Cant blame David for Aussies not buying Kathmandu stuff

[Beagle]

Good post Hoop, I agree 100%. I couldn't help notice the similarities between Pumpkin Patch and Kathmandu this year. Both in a clear downtrend, both lost circa 50% of their value since about May 2014 and both selling brand name clothing. Coincidence or a sign of the times that people are starting to question whether brand name clothing is worth the premium against a wide range of cheaper alternatives ? Effects of online buying continuing to grow too I reckon.
I looked up Kathmandu on Reuters and notwithstanding the clear downtrend and declining EPS last year it's well favoured by quite a range of analysts (10 analysts covering it) and consensus rating is overweight....go figure ?
Looks like professional investors have really got themselves tripped up on this one.

[winner69]

This Aussie retail guru thinks Kathmandu lost the plot (my interpretation of his words). Same as same as nothing special positioned as a discounter with too much competition

Beginning of a long spiral down eh Roger

kathmandu-shares-take-a-20-per-cent-drop-following-profit-warning-20141222-12c763

[winner69]

Hoops been on this thread and posted a chart - things don't fit on the page width wise now

Something only Hoop does to my stupid laptop

Anybody else suffer this

[percy]

Hoops been on this thread and posted a chart - things don't fit on the page width wise now

Something only Hoop does to my stupid laptop

Anybody else suffer this

Yes,and with All Ords Index on ASX Forum.

[Beagle]

This Aussie retail guru thinks Kathmandu lost the plot (my interpretation of his words). Same as same as nothing special positioned as a discounter with too much competition

Beginning of a long spiral down eh Roger

kathmandu-shares-take-a-20-per-cent-drop-following-profit-warning-20141222-12c763

As Hoop noted its been in a clear downtrend for many months now. Classic case of waiting for it to make a clear break through on a 100 day MA to the upside before buying. That'll happen one day and it won't be anytime soon that's for sure but to be honest I'm not into retail clothing stocks. Weather too warm, not warm enough, too wet, not wet enough...there always seems to be a ready excuse they always seem to have at hand ready to trot out.
What they should say is we will make XYZ forecast if we have perfectly predicted weather appropriate for each season all year round, stable economic conditions and low interest rates i.e. they make good money when all the planets are in perfect alignment. The weather almost always disappoints...17 years as a boat owner tells me that.

[Hoop]

Hoops been on this thread and posted a chart - things don't fit on the page width wise now

Something only Hoop does to my stupid laptop

Anybody else suffer this

Hmmm...first time I've heard of this.......In the past I've sized it so its slightly less wide than the forum page boundary...Its fitting OK on my PC screen...How much oversize is it Winner?
I'll fiddle around with the width settings tonight and replace the chart and see what happens.....


Yes,and with All Ords Index on ASX Forum.

I'll plead "not guilty" :mellow: on the Aords thread...Those oversize post sizes on the page are created after Trackers posts his MSI/Stol charts.

[winner69]

Lose about 10% ....goes as far as the with on the Reply with Quote link. Say 90% zoom would fix it

View perfectly OK on iPad but if open chart as image the iPad gets in a real fizz and generally needs to be rebooted.

Don't worry about it ....see what I want one ey or the other.

Just weird

[BFG]

Didn't have to even look at the charts after reading the posts from 6 months ago and watching the AU economy and forex to know this was a sell. Their massive pre-xmas sale on a sale is very telling where this is going as well...

I sincerely hope anyone holding can get out without losing a hand, let alone several fingers!

[Food4Thought]

KMD not doing too well in Straya bit of competition here, bit warm for half their main line items... I am a bit surprised by some sudden falls in recent month or two in KMD share price, then recovery. Now the announcement, and a solid drop. Good brand, probably could do itself a favor by a slight increase in quality. Sorry KMD holders, no respite any time soon.

[IAK]

One of Craigs IP picks for 2015.

[winner69]

One of Craigs IP picks for 2015.

Good timing on their part ..... in at a 20% discount eh

[BFG]

Starting to look overdone. Anyone in for a dead cat bounce?

[Beagle]

Meow :D Not for me at any price so fill your boots Moosie...just look at PPL's SP to see what's happening to branded clothing. I am sure most people are starting to join the dots with this one too.

[BFG]

Meow :D Not for me at any price so fill your boots Moosie...just look at PPL's SP to see what's happening to branded clothing. I am sure most people are starting to join the dots with this one too.

I hate KMD in real life, but I'm just think very short-term $$$$s on a bounce :D

[Beagle]

I hate KMD in real life, but I'm just think very short-term $$$$s on a bounce :D

I have a simple rule with dead cat bounces...you gotta love the cat in the first place. If you don't love the cat first just wait for the truck to flatten it properly and then be in :D

[gv1]

I guess, stay way clear of this one at the moment. Aussie not doing well.

[BFG]

Unless the cat was called Billabong, in which case you would have been better of getting a new kitten as the old one would have been almost dead from old age before it bounced back :D
6626

I remember that bounce very well. If you had the balls to buy in @ 10 cents at its low you had a 6 bagger after a few weeks as it jumped back to the 60s. That was a pretty epic bounce but was fuelled by a cocktail of fear, large shorts (excuse the pun) and finally saved by MASSIVE cost cutting, so very rarely happens. If you time it very well you can profit big time

[Beagle]

Unless the cat was called Billabong, in which case you would have been better of getting a new kitten as the old one would have been almost dead from old age before it bounced back :D
6626
Ouch, a few people lost their shirt / skirt there didn't they !! I've never been a fan of companies that make brand name apparel and / or merchandise. What's hot one minute is suddenly out of fashion and then... Always exceptions to the rule though. Louis Vuitton seemed to have done a bit of alright don't they !


I remember that bounce very well. If you had the balls to buy in @ 10 cents at its low you had a 6 bagger after a few weeks as it jumped back to the 60s. That was a pretty epic bounce but was fuelled by a cocktail of fear, large shorts (excuse the pun) and finally saved by MASSIVE cost cutting, so very rarely happens. If you time it very well you can profit big time
Mistime it and you can lose your shirt, trousers and undies. Kittens are eminently more likeable than old cats :)

[BFG]

Ouch, a few people lost their shirt / skirt there didn't they !! I've never been a fan of companies that make brand name apparel and / or merchandise. What's hot one minute is suddenly out of fashion and then... Always exceptions to the rule though. Louis Vuitton seemed to have done a bit of alright don't they !

Totally agree. Very cyclical in nature as well.



Mistime it and you can lose your shirt, trousers and undies. Kittens are eminently more likeable than old cats :)

Oh yes indeed. An element of luck in there as well, mixed in with seeing a totally undetvalued asset and massively oversold chart. Boot in investor psychology and you've got a perfect mix for high volatility! :)

PS -I'm a dog man myself. Big fluffy ones. Lassies are preferred if you are in the giving spirit :D

[winner69]

Certain irony the former CEO gets a bundle and a half of shares under a long term incentive scheme shortly after the share price collapses.

Management interests aligned with driving shareholder returns (sustainable long term returns that is) .....yeah right

[BFG]

Certain irony the former CEO gets a bundle and a half of shares under a long term incentive scheme shortly after the share price collapses.

Management interests aligned with driving shareholder returns (sustainable long term returns that is) .....yeah right

What's the strike price?

[winner69]

Looks like every man and his dog in the pigs trough as the notices roll out

Doubt all will say they deserve this bonus

[winner69]

What's the strike price?

Shares for free, for doing a good job

[Beagle]

Totally agree. Very cyclical in nature as well.
Oh yes indeed. An element of luck in there as well, mixed in with seeing a totally undetvalued asset and massively oversold chart. Boot in investor psychology and you've got a perfect mix for high volatility! :)
PS -I'm a dog man myself. Big fluffy ones. Lassies are preferred if you are in the giving spirit :D

Bang on mate, extreme volatility. Not for the faint hearted that's for sure.

[h2so4]

Shares for free, for doing a good job

Enough script to wallpaper their own dunnies.

Good jobbie.:)

[BIRMANBOY]

Anyone have any clues why SP for this is drilling the depths? A huge drop and div yield is piquing my interest.

[couta1]

Anyone have any clues why SP for this is drilling the depths? A huge drop and div yield is piquing my interest.

Market insanity coupled with panic.

[sb9]

I'm pretty sure have seen a post by Roger this morning on this thread...which was quite elaborative, did you delete it Roger?? Certainly looks like a good entry point for me, however would like to dig bit deeper before taking a position.

[Antipodean]

I'm pretty sure have seen a post by Roger this morning on this thread...which was quite elaborative, did you delete it Roger?? Certainly looks like a good entry point for me, however would like to dig bit deeper before taking a position.

It's in the WHS thread.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?514-WHS&p=525944&viewfull=1#post525944

[Beagle]

Yep I did. The reason is I'm perplexed and of two minds with this stock. Analysts like it. As posted in WHS thread and forward revised EPS is just over 19 cps for 2015 so on the face of it there's value to be had with a PE of less than 10. Its not a tired brand nor is it close to market saturation like WHS is but to be honest I can't get my head around whether this is a "value trap" or not. My gut says it probably is at present.

Consumer sentiment is very, very weak in their key market in Australia and I think this will get worse as ongoing mass retrenchments occur in the mining, oil and gas sectors.
In N.Z. people here are really worried with apparel brands, (PPL) and big names like Cavalier appear to mean nix these days.

On the other hand KMD is a solid brand IMO, we have a growing baby boomer generation looking to get into the great outdoors / adventure market, (how much of this is my own perception because I'm on a health kick at present I cannot decide), and I expect government funding around a push for healthy lifestyles as govt's face an epidemic of obesity related illnesses so such healthy lifestyle promotion should play into KMD's adventure / outdoor product offerings very well over time. The reason I deleted it is I don't feel I can add much to the debate other than to raise more questions...but I guess its good to discuss these things.

My gut feel says its too risky to try and catch a falling knife. With profit uncertainty hanging over the company and no further planned company updates forthcoming till February the risk appears to remain to the downside notwithstanding its more than halved in value from $3.90 in May 2014. I think it will be a buy at some stage but could test early 2012 lows at around $1.50 in the meantime. On a risk reward basis I don't see any harm in waiting till its broken back through on the upside of the 100 day MA, whenever that might be... To much potential volatility to buy this for dividend yield in my 2 cents worth of opinion. Restructuring in due course could really see this take off from a new SP base wherever that base is ?????

You'd think the low petrol prices would be playing into the hands of retailers like WHS and KMD but that doesn't appear to be the case...which begs the question of where they're spending the extra money...on bills perhaps ? As posted earlier in the thread I've never really been a brand apparel kind of guy but I guess a bit of exposure to a good brand when it hits the bottom could be a good diversification strategy.

I've put KMD on my watchlist and watching closely. I'm very interested in what people think of the quality of their products and company prospects in the medium term ?

[sb9]

Yep I did. The reason is I'm perplexed and of two minds with this stock. Analysts like it. As posted in WHS thread and forward revised EPS is just over 19 cps for 2015 so on the face of it there's value to be had with a PE of less than 10. Its not a tired brand nor is it close to market saturation like WHS is but to be honest I can't get my head around whether this is a "value trap" or not. My gut says it probably is at present.

Consumer sentiment is very, very weak in their key market in Australia and I think this will get worse as ongoing mass retrenchments occur in the mining, oil and gas sectors.
In N.Z. people here are really worried with apparel brands, (PPL) and big names like Cavalier appear to mean nix these days.

On the other hand KMD is a solid brand IMO, we have a growing baby boomer generation looking to get into the great outdoors / adventure market, (how much of this is my own perception because I'm on a health kick at present I cannot decide), and I expect government funding around a push for healthy lifestyles as govt's face an epidemic of obesity related illnesses so such healthy lifestyle promotion should play into KMD's adventure / outdoor product offerings very well over time. The reason I deleted it is I don't feel I can add much to the debate other than to raise more questions...but I guess its good to discuss these things.

My gut feel says its too risky to try and catch a falling knife. With profit uncertainty hanging over the company and no further planned company updates forthcoming till February the risk appears to remain to the downside notwithstanding its more than halved in value from $3.90 in May 2014. I think it will be a buy at some stage but could test early 2012 lows at around $1.50 in the meantime. On a risk reward basis I don't see any harm in waiting till its broken back through on the upside of the 100 day MA, whenever that might be... To much potential volatility to buy this for dividend yield in my 2 cents worth of opinion. Restructuring in due course could really see this take off from a new SP base wherever that base is ?????


Thanks Roger, tht was going mad for a minute when I couldn't find your post from this morning.

[percy]

Huge changes going on in retail.
Just as the motor car replaced the horse,the internet is changing the distribution channels.
People can now buy their apparel on line.Some people will not go near shops.
The model of KMD's, based on three "sales" per year, may not stand up to people comparing their product with on line retailers ,whose everyday prices are lower,and quality most probably a lot better.
No one is fooled by save $200 on a puffer jacket,now $299,when they can buy the same or better at $99 elsewhere.

[noodles]

Yep I did. The reason is I'm perplexed and of two minds with this stock. Analysts like it. As posted in WHS thread and forward revised EPS is just over 19 cps for 2015 so on the face of it there's value to be had with a PE of less than 10. Its not a tired brand nor is it close to market saturation like WHS is but to be honest I can't get my head around whether this is a "value trap" or not. My gut says it probably is at present.

Consumer sentiment is very, very weak in their key market in Australia and I think this will get worse as ongoing mass retrenchments occur in the mining, oil and gas sectors.
In N.Z. people here are really worried with apparel brands, (PPL) and big names like Cavalier appear to mean nix these days.

On the other hand KMD is a solid brand IMO, we have a growing baby boomer generation looking to get into the great outdoors / adventure market, (how much of this is my own perception because I'm on a health kick at present I cannot decide), and I expect government funding around a push for healthy lifestyles as govt's face an epidemic of obesity related illnesses so such healthy lifestyle promotion should play into KMD's adventure / outdoor product offerings very well over time. The reason I deleted it is I don't feel I can add much to the debate other than to raise more questions...but I guess its good to discuss these things.

My gut feel says its too risky to try and catch a falling knife. With profit uncertainty hanging over the company and no further planned company updates forthcoming till February the risk appears to remain to the downside notwithstanding its more than halved in value from $3.90 in May 2014. I think it will be a buy at some stage but could test early 2012 lows at around $1.50 in the meantime. On a risk reward basis I don't see any harm in waiting till its broken back through on the upside of the 100 day MA, whenever that might be... To much potential volatility to buy this for dividend yield in my 2 cents worth of opinion. Restructuring in due course could really see this take off from a new SP base wherever that base is ?????

You'd think the low petrol prices would be playing into the hands of retailers like WHS and KMD but that doesn't appear to be the case...which begs the question of where they're spending the extra money...on bills perhaps ? As posted earlier in the thread I've never really been a brand apparel kind of guy but I guess a bit of exposure to a good brand when it hits the bottom could be a good diversification strategy.

I've put KMD on my watchlist and watching closely. I'm very interested in what people think of the quality of their products and company prospects in the medium term ?

Roger,

I would be wary using the average analyst forecast. There is a big range from .15 to .225. Some of the higher forecasts may not have been revised down yet. Perhaps better to look at the bottom for a more conservative view.
http://www.4-traders.com/KATHMANDU-HOLDINGS-LTD-6500917/revisions/

Another thing to remember is that downgrades usually come in threes. Two more to go.

Cheers,
noodles

[Beagle]

Huge changes going on in retail.
Just as the motor car replaced the horse,the internet is changing the distribution channels.
People can now buy their apparel on line.Some people will not go near shops.
The model of KMD's, based on three "sales" per year, may not stand up to people comparing their product with on line retailers ,whose everyday prices are lower,and quality most probably better.

I tend to agree mate. This health kick I'm on is basically getting out there and doing power walking 45-60 minutes quick walking 5-6 days a week and avoiding sugar and all forms of known extremely fatty food like Cheesecake and Ice-cream chocolate e.t.c., (lost 5 kg's since Christmas and very good for dealing with the stress I'm dealing with in regard to my daughter). Now I've got to thinking quite a number of times that one of those fancy hydration backpacks might be a good idea as this fast walking is thirsty work.
So purely for the sake of a random exercise I just popped onto the FCO (Fishing camping and outdoors website), my local store is 100 metres away from my nearest KMD store and I see they have 2 litre hydration packs on sale for $27
http://www.fco.co.nz/online-store/camping/luggage/hydration.aspx?id=20406. For the sake of comparison I then jumped on the KMD site and there's are $80 on special, probably better but unlikely I'd be able to tell the difference. While i was on the KMD website I had a quick look around at some of their other pricing which also worried me. As a purely random sample this sort of price disparity would worry me if I were a KMD shareholder. Every Tom, Dick, Harry and Roger would go to the FCO store wouldn't they or buy one on trade me for even less ?

[winner69]

I tend to agree mate. This health kick I'm on is basically getting out there and doing power walking 45-60 minutes quick walking 5-6 days a week, (lost 5 kg's since Christmas and very good for dealing with the stress I'm dealing with in regard to my daughter). Now I've got to thinking quite a number of times that one of those fancy hydration backpacks might be a good idea as its thirsty work.
So purely for the sake of a random exercise I just popped onto the FCO (Fishing camping and outdoors website), my local store is 100 metres away from my nearest KMD store and I see they have 2 litre hydration packs on sale for $27
http://www.fco.co.nz/online-store/camping/luggage/hydration.aspx?id=20406. For the sake of comparison I then jumped on the KMD site and there's are $80 on special, probably better but unlikely I'd be able to tell the difference.
As a purely random sample this sort of price disparity would worry me if I were a KMD shareholder. Every Tom, Dick, Harry and Roger would go to the FCO store wouldn't they or buy one on trade me for even less ?
You got one of those fancy fitness wristbands yet mate?

Consumerism gone mad

Garmin apparently sell 7000 a week of their model in Australasia ...Gerry Harvey cleaning up with a sales boost bought on such toys

[Beagle]

Roger,

I would be wary using the average analyst forecast. There is a big range from .15 to .225. Some of the higher forecasts may not have been revised down yet. Perhaps better to look at the bottom for a more conservative view.
http://www.4-traders.com/KATHMANDU-HOLDINGS-LTD-6500917/revisions/

Another thing to remember is that downgrades usually come in threes. Two more to go.

Cheers,
noodles

Thanks mate, well said. I can't see too many people paying KMD prices unless they're feeling pretty comfortably well off ????? PPL going down down down because people are moving to value brands...are we seeing the beginning of a similar thing with KMD ????

[percy]

I tend to agree mate. This health kick I'm on is basically getting out there and doing power walking 45-60 minutes quick walking 5-6 days a week and avoiding sugar and all forms of known extremely fatty food like Cheesecake and Ice-cream chocolate e.t.c., (lost 5 kg's since Christmas and very good for dealing with the stress I'm dealing with in regard to my daughter). Now I've got to thinking quite a number of times that one of those fancy hydration backpacks might be a good idea as this fast walking is thirsty work.
So purely for the sake of a random exercise I just popped onto the FCO (Fishing camping and outdoors website), my local store is 100 metres away from my nearest KMD store and I see they have 2 litre hydration packs on sale for $27
http://www.fco.co.nz/online-store/camping/luggage/hydration.aspx?id=20406. For the sake of comparison I then jumped on the KMD site and there's are $80 on special, probably better but unlikely I'd be able to tell the difference. While i was on the KMD website I had a quick look around at some of their other pricing which also worried me. As a purely random sample this sort of price disparity would worry me if I were a KMD shareholder. Every Tom, Dick, Harry and Roger would go to the FCO store wouldn't they or buy one on trade me for even less ?

Exactly.
They do not stand up to scrutiny.
Pleased you are on a health kick.

[Beagle]

You got one of those fancy fitness wristbands yet mate?

Consumerism gone mad

Garmin apparently sell 7000 a week of their model in Australasia ...Gerry Harvey cleaning up with a sales boost bought on such toys

LOL you're a bloody legend you must have read my mind as I was looking at them yesterday. Can't bring myself to pay $379 for the fancy Garmin model, I'm a tight arsed accountant :lol:

[percy]

Thanks mate, well said. I can't see too many people paying KMD prices unless they're feeling pretty comfortably well off ????? PPL going down down down because people are moving to value brands...are we seeing the beginning of a similar thing with KMD ????

People will buy "good" products at "fair" prices.PPL used to have "lovely" kids clothes at "fair" prices.Today they just have "fair" products.
Briscoes proves to me people will still buy "good" products at "fair" prices .
Over the past 6 years 13,500 stores have closed in NZ.!Retail is a very difficult sector to be in.
The overheads of a retail store are huge,compared to online overheads.

[Beagle]

Totally agree mate and I can't see the difficulty ending anytime soon. Yeah Briscoes is a model of how to still do retail very effectively. Top quality leadership there, no question.
KMD could do okay in due course with a massive restructuring / price repositioning do you reckon ?

[Baa_Baa]

As a KMD 'Summit Club' member, I'm regularly emailed extraordinary discount opportunities on a range of apparel and goods. I have wondered at times how they can sustain such discounts as for example today, 50% off plus 10% for club members. Best Ive seen is 80%! I have no issues with quality but also no need to either visit their stores or buy at retail.

[BFG]

Still no dead cat bounce, just a kitty face planting into pipes along its journey into the subterranean sewers.

Along with PPL and WHS, me thinks the retail sector is severely out of fashion right now...

[Beagle]

Still no dead cat bounce, just a kitty face planting into pipes along its journey into the subterranean sewers.

Along with PPL and WHS, me thinks the retail sector is severely out of fashion right now...

Yep, the trouble with catching a rapidly falling knife is its so easy to get cut right down to the bone as its falls further.:scared:

[couta1]

KMD gear is top notch especially their ski apparel I've got a set that's completely waterproof,lightweight and breathable and even at minus 10 c I only need a light layer underneath. All they need is a good upcoming winter and all those Aussies will be flocking to the stores buying their kit before they catch one of those extra Air NZ flights scheduled for Queenstown (Two years ago at the Remarkables all I met was Aussies and last year many I talked to said the trend would increase as its cheaper and better to come ski in NZ) Here's hoping:cool: Disc - Holding 10k shares bought at $2.84.

[BFG]

KMD gear is top notch especially their ski apparel I've got a set that's completely waterproof,lightweight and breathable and even at minus 10 c I only need a light layer underneath. All they need is a good upcoming winter and all those Aussies will be flocking to the stores buying their kit before they catch one of those extra Air NZ flights scheduled for Queenstown (Two years ago at the Remarkables all I met was Aussies and last year many I talked to said the trend would increase as its cheaper and better to come ski in NZ) Here's hoping:cool: Disc - Holding 10k shares bought at $2.84.

They won't be coming during an economic downturn with an FX cross at 96 cents or, Lord forgive me saying, even closer to parity...

[percy]

Totally agree mate and I can't see the difficulty ending anytime soon. Yeah Briscoes is a model of how to still do retail very effectively. Top quality leadership there, no question.
KMD could do okay in due course with a massive restructuring / price repositioning do you reckon ?

I don't know.They may find their internet channel is where their future is!
I feel the "3 sales a year" model is poor.
Customers today are very savvy,and if your products do not stand up to being "good" value at "fair" prices you face extinction.
On one of the Australian threads someone quoted the retail market was only good for coffee and phones.!! I think they are right.

[couta1]

They won't be coming during an economic downturn with an FX cross at 96 cents or, Lord forgive me saying, even closer to parity...
Moosie don't you know skiing and snowboarding are addictions, they will come alright but will probably drink less beer when they get here.

[Bobdn]

I tend to agree mate. This health kick I'm on is basically getting out there and doing power walking 45-60 minutes quick walking 5-6 days a week and avoiding sugar and all forms of known extremely fatty food like Cheesecake and Ice-cream chocolate e.t.c., (lost 5 kg's since Christmas and very good for dealing with the stress I'm dealing with in regard to my daughter). Now I've got to thinking quite a number of times that one of those fancy hydration backpacks might be a good idea as this fast walking is thirsty work.
So purely for the sake of a random exercise I just popped onto the FCO (Fishing camping and outdoors website), my local store is 100 metres away from my nearest KMD store and I see they have 2 litre hydration packs on sale for $27
http://www.fco.co.nz/online-store/camping/luggage/hydration.aspx?id=20406. For the sake of comparison I then jumped on the KMD site and there's are $80 on special, probably better but unlikely I'd be able to tell the difference. While i was on the KMD website I had a quick look around at some of their other pricing which also worried me. As a purely random sample this sort of price disparity would worry me if I were a KMD shareholder. Every Tom, Dick, Harry and Roger would go to the FCO store wouldn't they or buy one on trade me for even less ?

Roger, here's a 3 litre hydration pack from Torpedo7 for $27, if you don't mind buying from a 'tired old brand" ;)

http://www.torpedo7.co.nz/products/DCHYPN3MO/title/dsend-monsoon-3lt-hydration-pack

[Beagle]

I don't know.I feel the "3 sales a year" model is poor.
Customers today are very savvy,and if your products do not stand up to being "good" value at "fair" prices you face extinction.

Good honest post mate. I don't know either. Good gear, I don't think there's any question about that... but you don't buy Mercedes-Benz's brands in tighter economic times do you !!
The other thing is if you do, then you probably don't buy three times a year. I once bought a real good quality pair of boat shoes from Timberland for $300, and they're such good quality they've lasted and lasted, now five years old and wearing them today but its not like I felt compelled to go back again and again and perhaps that's the nub of the issue with KMD...relatively expensive "treat gear" you buy now and again when you're feeling good about your finances or want to treat yourself / someone else. In tougher economic conditions prevailing in Australia I'd imagine the average consumer would buy a substitute branded product unless they really "believed" in the brand.

[Beagle]

Roger, here's a 3 litre hydration pack from Torpedo7 for $27, if you don't mind buying from a 'tired old brand" ;)

http://www.torpedo7.co.nz/products/DCHYPN3MO/title/dsend-monsoon-3lt-hydration-pack

Thanks mate, looks good and 3 litres too...big old dog's need a decent sized drink...might even walk further now :)

[percy]

Good honest post mate. I don't know either. Good gear, I don't think there's any question about that... but you don't buy Mercedes-Benz's brands in tighter economic times do you !!

Yes you do. And that 's the point as I see it.People will pay for quality ie a Mercedes-Benz ,but if their other car is a Toyota,and it performs better than the Merc,then Mercedes-Benz are in trouble.People will go without, to buy the best,but only if it is "good" value at a "fair" price.

[percy]

What do I mean good value at a fair price.?
Lets think of greeting cards.You can pay $1 or $5.99 for a very nice card.
Yet, when buying a card for some one very special you may find "just" the card you want for $9.99.It is something out of the box.It is lovely and is "good" value at a "fair" price.
When I am away from home, and wanting to buy my lunch, I watch where the workers go,as they know "good" value at a "fair" price.!!! I follow them. Always works!!!

[Beagle]

What do I mean good value at a fair price.?
Lets think of greeting cards.You can pay $1 or $5.99 for a very nice card.
Yet, when buying a card for some one very special you may find "just" the card you want for $9.99.It is something out of the box.It is lovely and is "good" value at a "fair" price.
When I am away from home, and wanting to buy my lunch, I watch where the workers go,as they know "good" value at a "fair" price.!!! I follow them. Always works!!!

You're as cunning as a wily old fox mate. I just skim read through the first 20 pages of this thread. Compulsory reading for anyone thinking of buying. My thoughts are that retail is a bloody tough gig and its getting harder, this thing is cyclical and the trend is down. This stock appears to be good value but my thoughts are that this is a classic "value trap" Earnings could get hammered in 2015 and 2016 as the Aussie economy gets tighter and tighter. I will avoid like the plague !!!

[percy]

I could never see what the attraction was here. You've had two players, being Cameron and private equity squeeze all the value they think they can extract from KMD in the last 5 years. On top of that you have a retail environment which is soft plus increased competition in this leisure/outdoor market.

Not too mention that i think everyone has got their head around this "sale" business and that the retail price in KMD is a joke. THe sale price is the retail price and if you are dumb enough to buy there outside of the sales then you deserve whats coming.

Posted 05-08-2010.
Was spot on then,and is spot on today.
Another poster I miss.

[Harvey Specter]

Moosie don't you know skiing and snowboarding are addictions, they will come alright but will probably drink less beer when they get here.

No way would Ozzies drink less. They will just wear last seasons ski clothes - sorry KMD.

[Beagle]

https://nzx.com/companies/KMD/announcements/260216

Ouch !!

[winner69]

Oh dear .....H1 looks like a loss situation

Bloody dry hot weather .....normalised profits allowing for weather would have been quite high.

[Harvey Specter]

I'm not sure 'disappointing' is the right word. My guess is that KMD will be going on sale today - 20 - 30% off. A further sale of 10-30% off already discounted prices will start tomorrow. ;)

[couta1]

https://nzx.com/companies/KMD/announcements/260216

Ouch !!
A whole lot more panic merchants reacting to what we already basically knew:eek2: Disc-Holding not selling

[Beagle]

My gut feel says its too risky to try and catch a falling knife. With profit uncertainty hanging over the company and no further planned company updates forthcoming till February the risk appears to remain to the downside notwithstanding its more than halved in value from $3.90 in May 2014. I think it will be a buy at some stage but could test early 2012 lows at around $1.50 in the meantime. On a risk reward basis I don't see any harm in waiting till its broken back through on the upside of the 100 day MA, whenever that might be... Roger 16 January

Thank God for gut feel.

[noodles]

Another thing to remember is that downgrades usually come in threes. Two more to go.

Cheers,
noodles

Only one more downgrade to go now.

[Beagle]

A whole lot more panic merchants reacting to what we already basically knew:eek2: Disc-Holding not selling

With respect mate I don't think anyone knew for sure whether we'd be talking about a loss situation for the first half, I had my suspicions, see above post.
Good gear but quite over-priced and very vulnerable to the ongoing groundswell of buying stuff on the internet. Also unless brand names offer quality and fair value I think customers are drifting more towards value products.

[winner69]

Don't think they ever lost money before.

On line sales are awfully discounted as well .....seems more a ongoing clearance sale

[couta1]

Don't think they ever lost money before.

On line sales are awfully discounted as well .....seems more a ongoing clearance sale
Goes to show mother nature holds all the trump cards we need a nasty winter to get things back on track.

[Beagle]

Don't think they ever lost money before.

On line sales are awfully discounted as well .....seems more a ongoing clearance sale

Interesting commentary around gross margin's which appear to be under serious pressure...at a time when the Aussie and Kiwi dollars were quite strong ???. Both currencies have had a meaningful correction thus far in 2015 which won't help KMD with their margin going forward.

[Bilbo]

Goes to show mother nature holds all the trump cards we need a nasty winter to get things back on track.

What if it is nothing to do with the weather, and more to do with the damage they have done to the brand by always having massive 50% off sales. I don't rate their gear at all, and never buy for myself if the purchase is something I will use longterm. Have been buying quality gear online via the US, and shipping via youshop when the retailer wont ship directly. I only buy Kathmandu stuff for the kids as they will grow out of it quickly.

[couta1]

What if it is nothing to do with the weather, and more to do with the damage they have done to the brand by always having massive 50% off sales. I don't rate their gear at all, and never buy for myself if the purchase is something I will use longterm. Have been buying quality gear online via the US, and shipping via youshop when the retailer wont ship directly. I only buy Kathmandu stuff for the kids as they will grow out of it quickly.
Hard to say Bilbo I mean when was the last time Briscoes didn't have between 20-60% of everything, its just one constant sale and its not hurting them,time will tell I guess.

[Beagle]

Oh dear .....H1 looks like a loss situation

Bloody dry hot weather .....normalised profits allowing for weather would have been quite high.

Yep Couta1 I'm pretty sure W69's comment was meant to be firmly tongue in cheek...along the lines of normalised win percentages for SKC.
In my view apparel companies blaming the weather is wearing very thin as an excuse. Seasonal weather is NEVER perfect and stock mix and promotional campaigns should account for that. Still....if we get a really frigid winter we'll all be out buying Kathmandu jackets and it'll all come right...unless of course we get the usual warmer winter than normal due to ongoing global warming :eek2:

[MAC]

What if it is nothing to do with the weather, and more to do with the damage they have done to the brand by always having massive 50% off sales. I don't rate their gear at all, and never buy for myself if the purchase is something I will use longterm. Have been buying quality gear online via the US, and shipping via youshop when the retailer wont ship directly. I only buy Kathmandu stuff for the kids as they will grow out of it quickly.

I‘d agree with that, just walking past the Papanui store a few times a week, outside of sale time the patrons do consistently seem to be mostly those just off a plane and stocking up their campervans.

The locals just wait for 80% off sales as at present, if they haven’t developed a natural caution. Such a wide ranged pricing model just seems to make folk a bit uncertain and jaded about what is really value and what is really quality.

Perhaps a new CEO will turn it all around and provide better clarity as to what the target market really is.

Are they a camping store for tourists, or are they are retail vendor of high end quality goods for New Zealanders and Australians.

Can’t be both IMO, but there is room to split the brand and carve off stores near the airports and tourist trails under different branding.

[percy]

Hard to say Bilbo I mean when was the last time Briscoes didn't have between 20-60% of everything, its just one constant sale and its not hurting them,time will tell I guess.

Huge difference.
Briscoes' 20 to 60% off are off a realistic retail price,while Kathmandu's are totally unrealistic.

[Bjauck]

Hard to say Bilbo I mean when was the last time Briscoes didn't have between 20-60% of everything, its just one constant sale and its not hurting them,time will tell I guess.
Even when I was a shareholder, I would never buy anything at full price and would treat Kathmandu sale prices as "normal trading" prices. I would feel a mug if I bought something that was not on sale. Even when sales were on, the shops seemed empty. I found I was buying minor items on sale near Christmas as stocking fillers. I thought the quality and design of items was good but as I was not buying them, I must admit I was not comfortable remaining a shareholder: I suppose more of a gut response as opposed to financial reasoning and analysis.

[J R Ewing]

IMO, the first problem with the KMD pricing (very expensive but with huge discounts) is that as a customer you can't use price to gauge quality and you can't use the discount % to gauge value. So you HAVE to go and check competitor stores for the same or similar item and then maybe go back to KMD, or not.

The second problem is that as a general rule of thumb, anything that doesn't have at least 50% off is going to be too expensive. So in effect the store is closed when they don't have a sale.

The other issue I have, speaking from personal experience, is that the customer service is way short of what you get at Bivouac or Macpac.

[Beagle]

Contrary to other views, if I need any outdoor gear, my first stop is Kathmandu. Yes, I only ever buy at sale prices but this heavy discounting model seems to work at Rebel Sports and Briscoes.

It works because customers see value at the discounted prices Rebel Sports and Briscoes offer.
Rebel sports, (not sure how many stores) and Fishing Camping and Outdoors, (13 stores in the North Island) are part of the Super Retail Group listed on the ASX which owns many other brands including the well known Super Cheap auto brand. These guys are huge with sales of over $2b. If my completely random sample experience of looking at buying a hydration backpack is anything to go by where Kathmandu were around $80 on "so called" sale and the FCO were $27 I'd suggest if KMD have issues with gross margin they may have supply chain / procurement cost issues. Maybe the KMD pack is better but does the average customer know that and furthermore do they care ?
Are we moving to a more throw away society where the average customer is happy with getting a couple / few seasons use out of their gear provided they get it cheap enough in the first instance ?

[macduffy]

Isn't Rebel Sport part of the Briscoes group in NZ, Roger?

[Beagle]

Opps quite right. Super retail group have their own "Rebel" brand in Australia. Just means poor KMD have to compete with both Briscoes through Rebel Sport and Super Retail group through their excellent value Fishing Camping and Outdoors stores. SP getting smashed now the Aussie market is open and voicing its discontent.

[JayRiggs]

Anyone have any thoughts on the new CEO - Mr Xavier Simonet?
https://www.nzx.com/companies/KMD/announcements/260001

Is he good enough to turn things around?