ELD Elders .... must be money to be made here

[winner69]

2 years ago close to $3 .... a year ago about $1.50 and now a massively discounted capital raising at 15 cents .... something that Nuplex would even be proud off

Shareprice down to 24/25 cents


What a state of affairs - what a mess - but ripe for the picking


Got to be a bob or 2 to be made of this somewhere over the next month or so .. or year or so

Iconic name in the rural landscape .... maybe inicative of what PGG Wrightsons might have to do in NZ

[Penfold]

QBE bought in and O'halloran ain't no fool... makes you wonder...

But no dividend until 2012 is more than a little concerning.

[Dr_Who]

I am also keeping a close eye on this one.

I think the sp can go lower from here. The insto that got the shares at 15 cents cant help but take profit at these levels.

[soulman]

Yep, QBE got a raw deal but that's not really reflective on QBE share price at the mo.

I am glad I kept a very small holding in ELD for the opportunity to participate in the SPP.

[Grand Uber]

Is there any doubt that the shareholders will accept the capital raising proposal at the Oct EGM? In my opinion they don't have a choice.

ELD may be following the path of NPX, they will have a huge number of shares on issue if this goes through, which may result in a consolidation in the short term.

The farming industry should recover strongly as unemployment decreases and demand for goods increases. Unless you believe the economy is about to head into recession again the future can only be brighter for ELD.

The managment obviously arent in favour at the moment, but how many times have you seen this attitude from shareholders forgotten 6 months down the track.

I am looking into ELD for my long term portfolio, holding until after 2012 provided it plays out right.

[macduffy]

I don't think there's any doubt that the capital raising will be a success.

The issues are largely underwritten, the shares were ex issue when trading re-commenced and finished yesterday at 24.5c compared with the issue price of 15c. I see them in a similar position to NPX and TSE, amongst others, where recapitalisation was the key to a (partial) SP recovery.
If I had any spare AUD I'd be taking an interest. In fact, I might have to think about selling something.........

:cool:

[macduffy]

ELD's SP is down 1.5c today on heavy volume, 19m shares.

Not surprising that the SP is under pressure, given that the SPP allows shareholders to take up $20,000 worth of new shares at 15c each. I can imagine that a lot of shareholders can't or won't want to fork out an additional $20,000 but there is a nice arbitrage there to sell at around 23c.

I'm still interested, not yet buying.

;)

[Dr_Who]

I am like you, sitting on the sideline waiting for the sp to fall to a certain level before hoping in. The instos will be taking profit at these levels after getting their hands on it at 15 cents. Thats a quick 60% return.... Lucky buggers!

[AMR]

Pity it was one of those cap raisings where they shut it off as soon as they announce it :(

[Xerof]

Record date was always going to be pre-trading halt/announcement IMO, as it's very likely to be severely scaled in the SSP, and the last thing they needed was 150,000 new shareholders owning 200 shares.........

IMO, if we are going to see any real weakness, it should after allocation in October (don't think the insto's will sell), but those current disenchanted shareholders have probably sold to raise some cash to go for the SSP, then they'll sell again


But on the other hand, there may be no weakness at all - the insto's have extracted a very good issue price which may not be seen on the open market

disc: hold none

[macduffy]

Some ( generally positive ) commentary on ELD here.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=9C1D8DB5-1871-E587-E13F8B29AEB280D4

[Grand Uber]

Cheers for that Mcduffy

The last paragraph is interesting

Stock is trading at an expensive 18.5 x FY2010 EPS on Deutsche's numbers and their call is neutral.

Guess it's best just to wait and watch at this stage

[macduffy]

Does anyone have a handle on Elders' NZ business?

Rural servicing? Insurance? Rural real estate? Other sectors?

Turnover? market shares?

Are they good operators or just also-rans?

More questions than answers, I'm afraid!

:confused:

[Grand Uber]

Well looks like the raising has been approved

I can't seem to open any of the attachments so don't know if there is any new details, but the expected drop towards that 15cents mark has happened.

I am extremely interested in the outcome of this whole thing, a lot of questions to be answered. Will it go below 15 cents? Will the company regain investor confidence over the next 6 months and we will see some improvement in the company value? or will it just float at this level for the next 5 years?

[Grand Uber]

Biggest volume on the ASX through ELD today, almost 250 million shares changed hands

I believe the SPP is completed on the 23rd of Oct and the company receives the funds on the 29th. Does anyone know when the shares will actually be in the hands of the shareholders?

[snowball]

Biggest volume on the ASX through ELD today, almost 250 million shares changed hands

I believe the SPP is completed on the 23rd of Oct and the company receives the funds on the 29th. Does anyone know when the shares will actually be in the hands of the shareholders?

The $400m conditional placement shares (total 2,667m) were issued today, which probably explains the volume.

Following the SPP close on Friday, 23 Oct, the up to $150m SPP shares (1,000m - yes, these are big numbers) are timetabled to be issued on 2 November.

Placees taking a quick 20% profit.

[Grand Uber]

Im hoping ELD gets smashed on open, with the influx of new shares, panicky investors and the impact from the DOW on friday we are bound to see some overselling.

Long term I think 15 cents will be a bargain and will be the floor on the price, but short term I think anything under that will be stupid not to purchase, not saying it will make it under 15 though.

I'm obviously looking to enter!

I could be way off and we will see it at 7 cents in the next few weeks :D

Am I the lone Sharetrader member with interests here?

[Dr_Who]

GU, you are on to it mate. ;)

[macduffy]

Hi G U.

Am I imagining things here or are there parallels with PGWrightsons?

Primary industry servicing companies, fallen on hard times, largely as a result of investment in non core ventures.

Markets taking a renewed interest in primary industry/agricultural type stocks.

The difference is that ELD have their re-financing secured through an underwritten cash issue, even if it's at a bargain basement price. PG Wrightson have yet to bite the bullet and take whatever the market will offer.

I havn't lost sight of ELD either!

;)

[Dr_Who]

ELD have made changes and restructured. ELD also have a very creditable MD at the helm with good track record. PGW on the other hand is still holding onto their balls cos they cant seem to let their little baby go, yet they cant afford to fund the restructuring. My guess is, PGW is holding back as long as possible for their major shareholders to raise funds so they can participate in the cap raising.

For now, I prefer ELD over PGW.

Dont get me wrong, there will come a time to buy PGW, but not until they bite the bullet, feel the pain and make drastic changes. Sell off non performing assets and concentrate of core businesses, go through the board with a big broom and give more transparency to the market.

disc: recently bought into ELD

[winner69]

This guy says something 'stinks'

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/article/elders-and-rotting-fish-pd20091116-xu5jv?opendocument&src=blb&is=agribusiness&blog=agribuzz

Still on watch ... not sure why though

[Dr_Who]

I think the sp at these levels have already factored the write downs. I am happy to pick up more stock if there are further sp weakness. This one will go into the med/long term portfolio.

[soulman]

Share price sliding into the SPP price. An opportunity or a trap. I am thinking more the latter.

Dr, that article Winner posted is the the reason that ELD still has a few skeleton in their closet. The fact that derelict chairman of ELD is still on board is beyond me. He should have step down with the previous management.

[Dr_Who]

Yeah, me think this is an opportunity so I bought some more shares today at 15 cents. This is my med/long term portfolio so not worry about short term weakness. Who knows where it will go in the short term.

I think the traders are getting out cos of a possible share consolidation coming soon. To me this is an opportunity for the long term holders to flush out the short term traders.

At this rate ELD looks cheaper than PGW. I actually prefer the MD in ELD than the MD in PGW. So I am buying a turn around story with good leadership and restructuring. With china and India booming along nicely, there will be good demand for rural sector soft commodities. You may have to wait abit longer to see the rewards, but it will come eventually. You just have to read the Fonterra payout and the recent GNC result to see soft commodities bottoming out.

The Aussie rural sector is also going through a consolidation. Watch for possible mergers and acquisition. I am not saying ELD is at play right now, but who knows what will happen in the future.

[Dr_Who]

ELD have consolidated their shares and now trading as ELDDA.

Elders confirms recovery forecast

LDERS chairman Stephen Gerlach has reiterated the company's forecast for an earnings recovery this year at what will likely be his last annual meeting after flagging he will step down in 2010.
The annual meeting in Adelaide on Friday was the third general meeting this calendar year for the company formerly known as Futuris, The Australian Financial Review reports.

The 170-year-old Elders brand nearly collapsed in September but chief executive Malcolm Jackman managed to refinance about $1 billion in debt, launch an equity raising and sell ITC Timber to Gunns.

In October, shareholders voted in favour of the recapitalisation plan, which included the sale of the Elders insurance operations to QBE Insurance Group, which is now a cornerstone investor.

Mr Gerlach, who was appointed chairman in 1996 and is also retiring as chairman of Santos this year, said Elders was in a more stable position and board renewal could be accelerated, although he planned to stick around until his successor was firmly in place.

http://sl.farmonline.com.au/news/nationalrural/agribusiness-and-general/finance/elders-confirms-recovery-forecast/1710500.aspx

[Dr_Who]

ELDDA is starting to move. ;)

[Dr_Who]

Rural sector stocks in Aussie going for a run lately.

[Balance]

Yeah, me think this is an opportunity so I bought some more shares today at 15 cents. This is my med/long term portfolio so not worry about short term weakness. Who knows where it will go in the short term.

I think the traders are getting out cos of a possible share consolidation coming soon. To me this is an opportunity for the long term holders to flush out the short term traders.

At this rate ELD looks cheaper than PGW. I actually prefer the MD in ELD than the MD in PGW. So I am buying a turn around story with good leadership and restructuring. With china and India booming along nicely, there will be good demand for rural sector soft commodities. You may have to wait abit longer to see the rewards, but it will come eventually. You just have to read the Fonterra payout and the recent GNC result to see soft commodities bottoming out.

The Aussie rural sector is also going through a consolidation. Watch for possible mergers and acquisition. I am not saying ELD is at play right now, but who knows what will happen in the future.

Well done, Dr Who.

Played beautifully!

[Grand Uber]

Good to see the shareprice doing the talking, got sick of reading all that rubbish on Hotcopper. Hopefully this will be like NPX all over again, but I won't be worrying too much about the price of this for a few years

[macduffy]

According to Arena, Citibank has reinitiated coverage of ELD with a BUY, High Risk rating.

ELD - ELDERS LIMITED
Citi rates ELD as Reinitiation of coverage - Buy, High Risk (1) - Citi has re-initiated coverage on the stock with a Buy call and $2.10 price target, believing rising agricultural chemical and fertilizer prices and recovering demand at the farm gate will make for improved trading conditions through FY10 and beyond.
The broker also believes that ongoing cost cutting, business restructuring, supply chain improvements and better discipline at the branch level will all add up to better margins in the near-term.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.64 Difference:$0.46 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ELD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY10 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.20 cents . At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.42.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

[Dr_Who]

Thanks Mcduffy. I ve always been a believe in ELD as recovery story.

[Dr_Who]

Took the opportunity to pick up some cheap stocks today. :)

[winner69]

Took the opportunity to pick up some cheap stocks today. :)


Cheapest they ever happened to be yesterday mate

Hopefully todays announcement might get them back on track again .... quite a long way off thebhigh 160's they were a few weeks ago eh

[Doyle]

Yeah I was lucky enough to pick some up at 1.37. (of course only time will tell wether that was lucky or unlucky). The big factor for me was it is actually raining in Australia which is big news for ELD in my view. Personally I like the outlook for PGW better, but at the moment the more exposure to agriculture the better IMO and ELD was/is looking to cheap to turn down.

[Dr_Who]

Cheapest they ever happened to be yesterday mate

Hopefully todays announcement might get them back on track again .... quite a long way off thebhigh 160's they were a few weeks ago eh

Yeah, I bought some more yesterday at $1.36 lol. On valuation ELD is a cheaper stock than PGW below $1.40.

I suppose I am a die hard supporter. Time will tell indeed if I am right or wrong. I am not in this stock for a few weeks. I am prepare to hold for 3-5 years.

I like these statements...

“The economic climate has continued to temper farmers’ appetite for debt. Furthermore, some
parts of the country have experienced good seasons allowing them to reduce debt levels,” Mr
Hutchinson said.

Mr Hutchinson stated that he expected a restoration of loan growth in the near term as the
fundamentals for the agricultural sector remained very strong.

“Demand for agricultural commodities should improve in line with the economic
environment, and whilst the strong Australian dollar has impacted prices, by historical
standards they remain at high levels. Furthermore, widespread rains have improved pastures
and soils for the forthcoming season in many regions,” Mr Hutchinson said.

[winner69]

I started this thread and still believe there must be money to be made here .... sometime

Still waiting for a decent uptrend to start .... waiting patiently

[Dr_Who]

Elds up over 3% today on a weak market.

I think it is oversold and looks cheap.

[macduffy]

Deutsche Bank likes ELD.

ELD - ELDERS LIMITED
Deutsche Bank rates ELD as Buy (1) - After what was a difficult FY09, the broker notes Elders expects an improvement in industry conditions in FY10 and a corresponding improvement in earnings margins for its Rural Services division.
The broker concurs, noting its own analysis shows that industry conditions have improved in FY10 to date, while industry feedback suggests that farmer purchasing activity has recently returned to more normal levels.

With the stock currently trading at around 8x normalised 2012 earnings, and at a material discount to the broker's $2.50 price target, the Buy call is maintained.


Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.32 Difference:$1.18 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ELD meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY10 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents . At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.15.

[Dr_Who]

Thanks for the info Mcduffy.

I dont understand the sp weakness for ELD. A number of brokers have upgraded their recommendations and profit. I ve been buying all the way down. I am comfortable holding this stock, but still wondering why the sp is so weak.

Looks like a very cheap stock. Much cheaper than PGW on fundamentals.

[macduffy]

The counter argument of course is that ELD is basically a wholesaler/distributor of rural supplies with little pricing power. So it needs a resurgence in rural activity, which may well be happening, but even then its fortunes are largely in the hands of the producers of the fertilisers, machinery, seeds and other inputs.

I see more leverage in the likes of NUF (which I hold) and IPL(which I don't).

[Dr_Who]

ELD out with a flying start this morning up 3%.

[Bobcat.]

O.K. I've been pursuaded by this thread and a little research and TA of my own that at 1.37 this stock is good value. I've purchased a bundle today at what looks to be the start of an upward trend -- sp has broken resistance at 1.35 and looks to be heading for a higher daily low. Looking at its fall over the past six weeks, it's not unusual after a share consolidation that the price initially falls away (see NPX about 10 months ago, and others) - mainly psychological I would say.

A decent profit announcement from their Rural Bank joint venture and increased holding by IOOF Holdings give me some confidence that my money is well invested.

[drillfix]

I've purchased a bundle today at what looks to be the start of an upward trend

Bobcat, good luck with your purchase.

Although, from where I am sitting, this stock is far far far from an upward trend.

(ie: both daily and weekly are shocking)

Please post a chart and share with me what it is I seem to be missing

No disrespect to you what so ever though, dont know how you come to that conclusion.

[Phaedrus]

Bobcat, you really do like those downtrending shares!
Take a look at this chart. From the top, looking at each indicator in turn :-

(1) DMI - a long, long way from triggering any Buy signal.
(2) RVI - Still well into negative territory.
(3) Slow Stochastic Oscillator - very negative. Last excursion over the halfway mark came to nothing.
(4) OBV - Negative. Falling. Well below its trendline.
(5) Trendline - 10 cents above current price.
(6) Moving Average - current price action nowhere near a break.
(7) Trailing Stop. Price still 15 cents below it.
(8) Todays candle - currently a Gravestone Doji. (Bearish)
(9) Broken resistance at $1.35? Only intraday, and would mean little or nothing anyhow, as at $1.60, for example.

Bobcat, I could feature plenty more indicators, all telling the same story.
Technically, ELD has got nothing going for it just now.
To buy any stock in the face of such strongly negative market sentiment is unwise. Who knows how far ELD will fall before beginning some sort of recovery?
I hope you didn't pay too much for the bundle you bought today, Bobcat. If this entry of yours works out OK, it will be due to good luck rather than good management.
The odds are clearly against it.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/ELD215.gif

[Bobcat.]

drillfix,
Last three days have seen support hold at 131 with seller resistance at 135 tested repeatedly.

1. A higher high today (broke thru 135 to 139);
2. So far today, a higher low (133.5);
3. Good volume (est. about 2m by closing bell);
4. Typical oversell following a share consolidation presents buying opportunity;
5. MACD about to cross;
6. Rising RSI;
7. I simply feel good about this one.

Risk control: I have a stop loss in at 129. If the support at 131 is broken, I won't be hanging in there but rather finding another entry point later on. But it would not surprise me to see that tonight the sp closes above 135 (bullish) and then goes on to finish the week well above today's high of 139.5.

[winner69]

Decent of you to post a chart only showing recent prices Phaedrus

ELD was well over $2 just over 2 years ago .... whoops i forgot that there has been a 10 for 1 consolidation since ... what a massive destruction of shareholder value eh

As the header says ,,,, must be money to be made here ... but when ... maybe Bobcat has struck at the right time

[drillfix]

drillfix,
Last three days have seen support hold at 131 with seller resistance at 135 tested repeatedly.

7. I simply feel good about this one.


Nope, sorry Bob, I cannot subscribe to your point of view here.

I think we are having crossed wires on a TA point of view.

IMO,
If I were to have a swing trade at this one, I wouldnt jump in until past $1.42 and then exit out at $1.6+ prior to the next $1.70 res.

I cannot go with gut or good feelings no more mate, these good feelings have burnt a hole in both my stomach and wallet.

Listen to Phaedrus on this one, there are even more indicators that he has not even mentioned.

If you are lucky, which you might be, you will get some short term MA's crossing and hopefully RSI will pickup to past 50 along with a positive MACD.

Anyway, each to their own. All the best.

[percy]

.

I cannot go with gut or good feelings no more mate, these good feelings have burnt a hole in both my stomach and wallet.



Dillfix.
Was this the reason you were at the chemist last week?
Only asking as I seem to suffer the same myself.
Best medication seems to be to stay away from falling shares!!
The real problem seems to be that they only start to drop after I have brought only to rise after I have sold.

[Dr_Who]

It was a false breakout. It felt good while it lasted..lol

Anyway, I am in for the long term. Prepare to hold 2-5 years, so not concern where the sp goes in the short term. I prefer the sp to weaken further as I have set money aside to buy more shares. :)

[drillfix]

.

I cannot go with gut or good feelings no more mate, these good feelings have burnt a hole in both my stomach and wallet.



Dillfix.
Was this the reason you were at the chemist last week?
Only asking as I seem to suffer the same myself.
Best medication seems to be to stay away from falling shares!!


Haaha Percy, no mate. I have another condition unrelated to stocks.

But you are right though, best to stay clear of the falling shares, and try to keep focussed on only the ones that are continuing up. This rule of thumb will make you money.



The real problem seems to be that they only start to drop after I have brought only to rise after I have sold.

Ain't the the truth.
Though again Percy, pick the risers, dump downers, stick with the ride and should it decide to make a lower low followed by a lower high, Get Out because the party could be close to over. ;)

[percy]

[ pick the risers, dump downers, stick with the ride and should it decide to make a lower low followed by a lower high, Get Out because the party could be close to over. ;)[/QUOTE]

Drillfix
as always good advice.

[Dr_Who]

Jim Rogers, Warran Buffet, Jane Cameron (Previous owner of Kathmandu) was not listening to you guys when they keep buying stocks trending down and holding onto it for long term.

[percy]

Dr.
I have no idea who Jim Rogers is,however Warren Buffett usually buys after a stock has hit rock bottom,and I would be very careful following Jan Cameron because her shops really are a dogs breakfast.Visit one once and you would not make the same mistake again.

[winner69]

Dr.
I have no idea who Jim Rogers is,however Warren Buffett usually buys after a stock has hit rock bottom,and I would be very careful following Jan Cameron because her shops really are a dogs breakfast.Visit one once and you would not make the same mistake again.

I see the NOOD shop in central Wellington seems have closed down ... didn't last long

[soulman]

Nice debate here and being me, ELD (former Futuris) is in my blacklist book as I will never purchase this stock again.

Seeing that the Chairman is still there, I wonder why he hasn't been outed. He should have the dignity of stepping down instead of hanging around doing bugger all. New management, new chairman, makes sense to me.

After flogging ELD for a tidy sum after the SPP, I have no faith whatsoever with this coy. The new CEO has credential (ex CEO of Coates Hire) but this job could be harder than he anticipated.

[drillfix]

Jim Rogers, Warran Buffet, Jane Cameron (Previous owner of Kathmandu) was not listening to you guys when they keep buying stocks trending down and holding onto it for long term.


Doc,
That's ok for those guru's whom have financial resources to spread across the cake, but everyone here on ST or at least me does not have such resources to tie up into something that is moving downwards which it continues to do.

Who knows though right, markets may turn around, and the stock may bounce and break resistance a couple of times and it will be on its way, this could happen. But first it must convince the market with its FA and the stock's sector would need to be moving up, as well as the XAO being strong, then the charts would show us different.

Will keep an eye on this one anyway and throw up the odd chart for a real life case example of what may or may not be, for the time being.

Good luck to all holders.

[Dr_Who]

I suppose there lies the difference between most ST traders and myself.

My investment views are more long term and short term weakness is an opportunity to accummulate, while ST traders would like to pick a bottom for a quick return.

I am not saying your strategies are wrong or right, just pointing out the different investment strategies at play.

ps: I like the new CEO for ELD and buying cos of him and for a rural sector turn around.

[Phaedrus]

5. MACD about to crossPerhaps, but how good a signal is that be likely to be? Over the 5 - 6 months covered by the chart, there have been 3 prior MACD "buy" signals. All gave very poor entries and all led to losing trades.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/ELD215-1.gif


6. Rising RSITrue, but again look to see how much help that has been in the past. Areas of "rising RSI" have been enclosed by light green boxes. There were 6 prior to the current one, and all led to poor entries and losing trades.

Note also the conventional RSI "buy" signals as marked by green arrows. All very poor entries and all leading to losing trades. This is only to be expected when applying oscillators to down-trending stocks.

Of course, none of this means that the next MACD or RSI signal will automatically be a bum steer, but the chances of that are appreciable.

Good on you for setting a stop-loss, Bobcat. Surprisingly few people are sensible enough to use them.

[macduffy]

Hi Phaedrus.

As always I appreciate your charts and explanations. I use only the most rudimentary TA as an overlay on my (mostly) FA investing so I don't pretend to a lot of understanding of the subject!

But I'm having trouble following your reasoning on the MACD "failed trades" here. Havn't each of these Buy signals been followed by MACD Sell signals at higher levels than the respective Buys? True, there's not much in it but strict adherence to the MACD signals would have resulted in modestly profitable trades?

Cheers

MACDuffy

:)

[drillfix]

I am not saying your strategies are wrong or right, just pointing out the different investment strategies at play.

ps: I like the new CEO for ELD and buying cos of him and for a rural sector turn around.

Absolutely Doc,
It really is each to their own. And so you know, by no means does me posting anything in any stock mean or suggest that your FA or technique/style of investing is wrong.

Although, there are times whereby all of us must keep an eye on world indicators that govern both TA and FA decisions that we make day to day or week to week or else we can all get washed out with the tide. Charts, Facts Beliefs and all.

[drillfix]

MacDuff, I know you asked Phaedrus the questions you have, but I will also thrown in an opinion here.

Just because there are buy signals triggered. The triggers are in a stock that is falling.

Meaning, if you were swing trading it whilst it was falling you could have made some money.

If you were holding onto the stock whilst it was still showing buy signals from either RSI or MACD, it will not make no difference if you hold long, because the stock is still falling thus also falling in value.

Now if you reverse that chart and were invested Long, you could swing trade it or just invest or go long and be successful. But this is not the case.

Hope that makes sense.

[macduffy]

Yes, drillfix, it's the swing trading thing that I'm getting at here.

Purely theoretical from my point of view because I don't have the ability or temperament to be successful at it but my point is/was that profitable MACD initiated trades were possible in this case?

[Phaedrus]

Haven't each of these MACD Buy signals been followed by MACD Sell signals at higher levels than the respective Buys? True, there's not much in it but strict adherence to the MACD signals would have resulted in modestly profitable trades?I think you must be looking at the rising MACD plot, MacD. The MACD signal needs to be referred down to the price plot to see the actual entry/exit prices for each signal. The figures quoted below are for each of the 3 MACD "trades" using the Close and ignoring brokerage.

(1) Buy 230 Sell 180 22% Loss
(2) Buy 205 Sell 150 26% Loss
(3) Buy 160 Sell 150.5 6% Loss.

[macduffy]

I think you must be looking at the rising MACD plot, MacD. The MACD signal needs to be referred down to the price plot to see the actual entry/exit prices for each signal. The figures quoted below are for each of the 3 MACD "trades" using the Close and ignoring brokerage.

(1) Buy 230 Sell 180 22% Loss
(2) Buy 205 Sell 150 26% Loss
(3) Buy 160 Sell 150.5 6% Loss.

Oh dear!

:o

That's why I don't attempt such trades!

Cheers

[Bobcat.]

What was very solid resistance at 135 has now been breached two days running. If the sp holds above 135 tonight, I will consider it bullish (if above 139.5, all the more so!). IMHO, the worm has turned. My guess is that I'll be buying more at around 141 sometime tomorrow.

[drillfix]

What was very solid resistance at 135 has now been breached two days running. If the sp holds above 135 tonight, I will consider it bullish (if above 139.5, all the more so!). IMHO, the worm has turned. My guess is that I'll be buying more at around 141 sometime tomorrow.

Bob, 141 hey?

IMO, give yourself a little more confirmation than that.

Have you ever heard of the term fall off the roof, or crack though the floor?

Well, they are terms for what potentially can occur near support and resistance lines.

Sometimes support will be broken for a day, and those who think its broken jump in, and then the next day it Falls off the Roof down again which will then go and test the next lower support level.

OR sometimes it will fall and actually break through a lower support level for a day and people decide to bail because of it, it then turns around and bounces off the below support level, hence the phrase, "Crack in the Floor".

Now, I am not here to tell you what will or wont happen, just that you need to be careful with both inclining and declining stocks as they do this very thing so it will be in your interest to use what I have mentioned wisely, should you not know it.

So, that is my little good trading Samaritan duty for the day, I hope it helps.

ps: Bob, if your into declining stocks, check out MAE thats a beauty ;) :D

[Dr_Who]

What was very solid resistance at 135 has now been breached two days running. If the sp holds above 135 tonight, I will consider it bullish (if above 139.5, all the more so!). IMHO, the worm has turned. My guess is that I'll be buying more at around 141 sometime tomorrow.

$1.37.. looking good :D

[drillfix]

$1.37.. looking good :D

Yep, it always does Doc, of course when its going up that is.

Now, what I believe or what the chart says may or may not matter. With the right market conditions and the Fundamentals pumping through, then anything can happen.

Here are a couple of charts a zapped up for you and Bob.

1st chart is a 12 month daily with FIB Fan which can also aid in approximations along with some key support areas.

http://i45.tinypic.com/s14y0p.png

.

Next we zoom in on these area's closer to the candle support action.

http://i45.tinypic.com/16m93m1.png


I think you will find the current down run has been following the Fib line D
But
The breakout bobby boy there is on about has broken through that, which is what keeps the belief going.

No doubt, it certainly will test the RS4 (resistance - support) line there which is approximately at 142-145

If it fails, then expect it to follow the Fib Line D down in that direction.

Disregard the E and F lines as they were early year reflections that did not become tested in since August there abouts.
But take into notice how they do seem to manage to touch upon lows, highs and directional movement??
Between them and pitchforks, I really dig them, but do not use them in fast charting much as there are too many charts to do...LOL

Now,
Should the fundamentals (which is why you invested yeah?) start to prevail and the actual sector move upwards at the same time along with overall market conditions, THEN I think you will potentially have a turnaround providing that the R/S 4 also gets broken and R/S 5 and so on.

It may seem alot to ask for, but like many stocks, we live in testing times and I find its not such a good idea to get too complacent about any stock for that matter.

Anyway, hope this does both you and bob well.

If some resistance gets broken and becomes support, you will see me back for a swing trade or two. ;)

Hope this helps.
Cheers~! :)

ps: I forgot to add another support line from which the run made a new low.. Doh~!
And adding to the above, the MA can potentially cross over with another good day or two to give better confirmation towards upward testing.

[Dr_Who]

Thanks Drillfix.

I am one of those investors that love stocks that people hate, hence I am a value investor. The more people hate it, the lower the sp the more I will buy.

Anyway, thanks for the graph. ;)

Bought more shares today.

ELD profit announcement should be out soon. :)

[drillfix]

Thanks Drillfix.

I am one of those investors that love stocks that people hate, hence I am a value investor. The more people hate it, the lower the sp the more I will buy.


No worries Doc,

In the event that this does turn upward to break some resistance, I too will hitch a ride on it for a 10c swing, who knows, that ann you talk about may be even bigger than Ben Her, or if not and worst, then Ben Overagain...LOL :D

[Bobcat.]

This dog is meeting its match at 139.5 - the same resistance level that pushed the sp down to 133 earlier this week.

If it closes tonight below 133, I'm out;
above 139.5 and I'm buying;
somewhere in between and it's probably still O.K., so I'll hold.

[Dr_Who]

This dog is meeting its match at 139.5 - the same resistance level that pushed the sp down to 133 earlier this week.

If it closes tonight below 133, I'm out;
above 139.5 and I'm buying;
somewhere in between and it's probably still O.K., so I'll hold.

You are one panicky investor. The market is not a casino...lol

I feel like I am one of the very few long term investors on ST.

[Bobcat.]

I feel like I am one of the very few long term investors on ST.

Why be a long term investor if the share price is heading south?
You (and I) should sell if it's on the way down. Selling out if and when the sp breaches support is not panicky - it's controlled and risk-managed.

[Dr_Who]

Why be a long term investor if the share price is heading south?
You (and I) should sell if it's on the way down. Selling out if and when the sp breaches support is not panicky - it's controlled and risk-managed.

Go have a look at IRN (Indophil).

I bought ****loads of this stock during the financial crisis with a good average price. I kept buying the stock all the way down and my broker thought I was mad! I started posting the stock up on ST when the sp was around 30 cents. IRN had cash sitting in the bank of 20 cents. I held onto it and ride out the crisis. The Chinese came and made a T/O offer of $1.28. That is a 500% return in less than 1 year!!! Now that is real money and real return for holding on.

I suppose that the difference between TA and FA investing.

[Bobcat.]

Looking at IRN, I wouldn't have got hungry until Jan/Feb 2009's solid resistance at 30 was breached, which it was in May. But then if that same price was breached with a sp fall, I would exit -- it wasn't. Ditto for 40c, 80c and 100c. I would have to say tho', it's looking a bit overbought now with solid resistance at 126. If you're still holding and it drops below 122, I would suggest you exit.

The situation here is quite different to ELD, although the bounce off 50c in Oct 08 is interesting. Any purchase above 60c in Nov 08, I would have subjected to a stop loss at either 59c or (poorer still) at 49c, and lost on both. Holding on that fall as you suggest presents IMHO too much risk, regardless of any perceived fundamental strength. Exiting off a stoploss, then entering later above 30c would've been less risk prone, and more rewarding.

Risk/reward ratios can be a bit subjective but ignore them at your peril....and frankly my selling strategy demands more of my attention than my buying strategy (unless of course one is shorting in which case the oppositie is true).

Regards,
BC

[drillfix]

Bob, you are alot more switched on than I previously had thought.

Way ta go, finger on the pulse there mate.

Doc, with a little TA up your sleeve and with all those gains, I think you would make a great power investor and would blitz it nicely.

Im not saying this stock is gonna crash, I just saying that with using both methods of what you do, it would add to your style, but its also fine to be you as you without any advice too ;)

[Dr_Who]

hehehe... cheers guys.

Hence a difference in our investing styles. A chart looks like Greek to me, I dont understand it. All these lines with MACD etc just confuse the living daylights out of me. What I do know is to look at the micro/macro and quantitative/qualitative analysis and make my investment decisions.

In the case of IRN, I knew the value is around $1.28, as stated in my first post on ST. I was not afraid to keep buying the stock knowing the value of the company and in the long term the value will come through, but in the short term there will be weakness due to fear. Fear is a opportunity.

Come back to ELD, I know the value is around $2 plus per share. In the short term there is alot of nervousness as the market waits for the result due out this month to give it guidance for the future. Also the drought and poor results by other rural stocks did not help. But the future looks bright for the rural sector with China and India growing wealth and population.

[Bobcat.]

Interesting comments, chaps. Technically, I'd like to see ELD break through 139.5 today and hold before I'm prepared to invest more in this pup. It's already broken through one lot of resistance @ 135 -- to do it a second time at a higher price is far more bullish.

BC

[Dr_Who]

Kaboom!

There ya go Bob. Also has a nice bowl shape graph. :)

[drillfix]

Hi folks,

I am using another charting platform and now see the chart differently.

Has there been some sort of share split or consolidation or something?

Chart that I drew the other day is now not like how that shows.

Whats up here?

[Dr_Who]

10 for 1 consolidation

[drillfix]

10 for 1 consolidation


Thanks Doc,

This is weird because its now like the chart is flipped upside down'ish.

On the move now, I will be nearly in for a swing, but I think I need to re evaluate what I said previously. :rolleyes:

[Bobcat.]

Upward trend confirmed I would say - especially if today's low is higher than yesterday's.
Holding.

[Bobcat.]

Are you technical analysts now convinced of this pup's upward trendline? If not, what is it going to take?

Discl: bought into ELD last week (twice) and if this bullish run continues, may do so again - buy on the up, sell on the down.

[winner69]

Are you technical analysts now convinced of this pup's upward trendline? If not, what is it going to take?

Discl: bought into ELD last week (twice) and if this bullish run continues, may do so again - buy on the up, sell on the down.

Definitely in an uptrend now Bob ..... even outperforming the ASX which is up 4% over the last week or so

The Dr may be right .... this could be a ten bagger in the next year or two

[drillfix]

Are you technical analysts now convinced of this pup's upward trendline? If not, what is it going to take?


Bob, No mate not quite convinced, I dont wish to gamble that it will go up because of news only for a stack of off screen sellers to distribute heavily into the buying.

This stock needs volume, RSI is going sideways and to be honest, it could go anyway.

Here is a chart which looks quite different rather to the other charts posted.

http://i45.tinypic.com/1erqbt.png

I would take into consideration other indicators that are not shown in my chart but rather the one's in the Phaedrus chart.

No doubt if and when news comes and its positive, I will partake once she breaks $1.49/50 and hold into $1.65 ish.

Again, the price will tell us when, not whether we believe or not.

Hope this shows you another angle anyway.

[drillfix]

ps:

Bob, are you with Interactive Brokers by chance?

If you are, would it be ok to PM you re-your thoughts on them.

[Bobcat.]

ps:

Bob, are you with Interactive Brokers by chance?

If you are, would it be ok to PM you re-your thoughts on them.

Interactive Brokers charge $2.50USD per trade (less for the EUR/GBP combo) which is good unless you execute several trades per hour. They have good spreads (except betw about 9:00am and 5pm our time when liquidity is lighter) and you don't get lumbered with hefty financial charges like some other forex houses like to slip in (e.g. CMC Markets) e.g. when you have positions open past GMT=midnight.

Downside is less leverage, but that doesn't bother me. I've been burnt before over-leveraging. Perhaps cut your teeth on IB then open a second account later with CMC or another house offering greater leverage.

One thing to remember with IB is that your interest (+ve and -ve) is calculated on currency position under the tab "Market Value" (e.g. 5,000 EUR, 2000 NZD, etc) not necessarily on your "Fx Portfolio" or positions open (e.g. 50,000 EUR/JPY, etc).

In general, I'm happy to deal with IB (I've tried three others that aren't so good).

Suggested selection criteria:
1. Spreads (look for half pips on major currencies during European/USA business hours);
2. Financial charges/interest expense;
3. Trading tools (ticker tape, alerts, stops, charts, etc);
4. Provision of electronic tax year (Apr to Mar) reports;
6. Responsiveness of the service desk;
7. Ease of making Deposits and Withdrawls.

...probably in that order.

[drillfix]

In general, I'm happy to deal with IB (I've tried three others that aren't so good).

Suggested selection criteria:
1. Spreads (look for half pips on major currencies during European/USA business hours);
2. Financial charges/interest expense;
3. Trading tools (ticker tape, alerts, stops, charts, etc);
4. Provision of electronic tax year (Apr to Mar) reports;
6. Responsiveness of the service desk;
7. Ease of making Deposits and Withdrawls.

...probably in that order.

Thanks Bob!

I dont trade FX (yet) I got a couple of neat courses that I am going to knock off before begin paper trading initially to get up to speed with it.

But what about stocks, I am assuming you use them also for Trading ASX stocks and stuff yeah?

The other thing I wanted to ask was do you trade commodities and indexes as well with IB, and do you use the IB TW for your platform or do you integrate your own charting platform for charting and order execution?

(sorry to others for this being a little off topic, will get back on after this post).

[Bobcat.]

Using IB for forex trading only.
A few months ago, I used CMC for trading ASX 50 stocks (long and short with good leverage) but have yet to do so with IB.
And yes, using their TraderWorkstation - they have a FX Trader tool but I prefer to trade off the bid/asks at the bottom of their charts.

BC

[Bobcat.]

ELD may rise today. PGW have reported a solid result on the NZX.

[Balance]

Hold the horses. I wouldnt say PGW result is solid, but only in line with analyst expectations. With ELD at $1.40 and PGW at 68 cents, ELD sp is trading much cheaper than PGW. Of cos I would say that cos I hold and continue to buy ELD and not PGW. :D

Are u using forward or historical multiples? Earnings or cashflow?

Please share with us as it seems like a switch from one to the other is in order.

[winner69]

Still waiting ... waiting

My little point and figure chart still not signalling a buy yet.

Easy charts these looking for a change in trend. Mine not very sophisticated .... just a piece of graph paper next to the computer when I add O's or X's to when I need to. With ELD I am using a 4 cents as the trigger for reverse points

ELD is interesting ... it was all O's from 170 to 132 with no 4 cent reversals made. Since then its been a mixture of O's and X's and generally in an uptrend although not clearly defined.

142 is a major resistance point and although the currently it is all X's (down) maybe there will be some action if it ever gets over 142

One good thing about these charts is that you only need to plot things when a 4 cent movement is made up or down from the latest high or low you have .... its takes alot of noise out of the chart .... somedays you don't need to do anything, like today

Good old fashioned tool ... suppose day traders could use them if they had the right software

[Dr_Who]

Shiat Winner, you are talking Chinese again! I dont understand a word. Sorry mate, charting is like alien to me. All those colours and Chinese characters confuse the crap out of me. I keep buying cos it looks cheap in my books and I am in there for the long play. I did well out of resources last year, so switching into some rural sector stocks and holding rest in cash. Got plenty of fat to play with.

Will be interesting to see what there profit is, due out soon. From there we can get a clear picture of future performance.

[winner69]

Shiat Winner, you are talking Chinese again! I dont understand a word. Sorry mate, charting is like alien to me. All those colours and Chinese characters confuse the crap out of me. I keep buying cos it looks cheap in my books and I am in there for the long play. I did well out of resources last year, so switching into some rural sector stocks and holding rest in cash. Got plenty of fat to play with.

Will be interesting to see what there profit is, due out soon. From there we can get a clear picture of future performance.

Hey Dr .... you enjoy point and figure charts .... don't need a computer .... its really like playing noughts and crosses and looking for a line of crosses .... preferably heading upwards .... thats when things are going well

[Balance]

Hey Dr .... you enjoy point and figure charts .... don't need a computer .... its really like playing noughts and crosses and looking for a line of crosses .... preferably heading upwards .... thats when things are going well

Commodity prices are good and there have been good rainfalls in parts of Australia. ELD should report a good result.

If it does not, there will be hell to pay.

See Toll's result? Sp fell 17%!

[Balance]

Another ELD's business not going well. More write-offs?

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/forest-enterprises-talks-to-its-bankers/story-e6frg8zx-1225835373135

Note that ELD's balance date is Sept - so company will not be reporting until May.

[Balance]

For the benefit of those who think ELD is very 'chip'.

Comparison of PGW versus ELD.

PGW is forecasting $24.1m so is currently trading on a forecast PER of 19 for 2010.

ELD is forecasting $54m so ELD trading on PER of 11.3 for 2010 but note that it is not taxed - so comparative PER is actually 16.2.

Note also that ELD's forecasts are dependent upon some asset sales. You might want to check on the progress of the asset sales - it's running $60m behind schedule. In fact, ELD has had to write down the value of Hi-Fert by 80%.

So knock $4m profit off ELD's forecasts - PER is now 17.5X.

A bit of a worry when ELD has to write down the value of assets so quickly after it is supposed to have cleaned out its books. What other skeletons are hiding in there?

[Balance]

Brokers' reports highlight the following risks to ELD profits :

Drought (Australia is in the early stages of an El
Nino event currently),

Securitised receivables coming back on the balance
sheet (estimated A$150m),

Plexicor put option (A$97m) and various ATO
disputes,

Asset sales behind schedule and below assessed value,

Cash drain from non-core divisions.

Hmmm - I think I will stick to PGW. Take over from Agria is almost a certainty.

[Dr_Who]

Talking your own book again Balance. Love all those creative accounting. Anyway, no point debating cos we will never see eye to eye on this one.

Lets revisit it in two years time.

[Balance]

Talking your own book again Balance. Love all those creative accounting. Anyway, no point debating cos we will never see eye to eye on this one.

Lets revisit it in two years time.

I hold PGW so of course I am going to point out the errors of your ways, Dr Who. You didn't even know ELD's balance date and reporting date!

Putting facts out there for those who bother to read objectively rather than the 'ELD is very chip!' routine without proper analysis.

Know what the Plexicor option is about? The way things are going, it is likely to be exercised .... in which case it's ouch!

[Balance]

LOL Balance you crack me up.

I just cant be going a few rounds with you on the balance sheet, doesnt mean I dont know it inside out. Just watch ELD action carefully and you will eat your words. There are things happening in the background you are not aware of? It is too easy to push your button and you start charging like a bull in a glass house.

Hmmm .. you are sounding like you were with PRC all over again.

Good luck!

[Balance]

Nufarm results a shocker. Does not auger well for ELD.

[Dr_Who]

Watch this space. :)

[Balance]

Eh, how long do we continue to watch the space?

Stock is now trading at all time low!

[drillfix]

Currently the stock is at support, should it break and hold past $1.28 then obviously the shorters will be out.

Did I say shorters?

Yep, I did, take a look at the Shortsell.txt file and you will see ELD was shorted on the 10th Mar, and probably is still shorted now.

extract from the list:

ELD ELDERS LIMITED - FPO - 1,430,342 - 125,148 - 8.75 - .77

You can see 1.4 million were sold to go short, reaped 125 grand for the day.

What about today? well, can only see that info on tuesday.

So should it hold the support, it should probably bounce back as the break to cover.

Cheers~!

[macduffy]

Currently the stock is at support, should it break and hold past $1.28 then obviously the shorters will be out.

Did I say shorters?

Yep, I did, take a look at the Shortsell.txt file and you will see ELD was shorted on the 10th Mar, and probably is still shorted now.

extract from the list:

ELD ELDERS LIMITED - FPO - 1,430,342 - 125,148 - 8.75 - .77

You can see 1.4 million were sold to go short, reaped 125 grand for the day.

What about today? well, can only see that info on tuesday.

So should it hold the support, it should probably bounce back as the break to cover.

Cheers~!

Are you sure you're reading that report correctly?

Relevant figures for ELD for 11 March were:

Total shares sold: 1,503,742

Reported Gross short sales: 114,344

Short as % of turnover: 7.6

Daily SP change % : -.76

Looks to me like the 1,430,342 number on 10 March was the total turnover for the day (long plus short) and the 125,148 number was the number sold short. 8.75% of the total.

[drillfix]

Hi MacD,

Dunno mate, just looking at the file from the 10th of March located here: http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

[macduffy]

Hi MacD,

Dunno mate, just looking at the file from the 10th of March located here: http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

Yes, drillfix, that's the site I look at.

Have a look at the headings on the columns. The total is total sales ( long plus short).

Cheers

[Balance]

Balance, you should go short on this stock. You will probably make good money if you go and stay short. I dear you. :D

No I don't want you to 'dear' me!

[drillfix]

Ahh, ok Mac, total shorted was 125,148

Overall though the point I was trying to get across that is "certain" stocks seem to be getting pounded down, Members should also cross reference that link and back track to make some sense of why a stock is falling. (I know if it were me, I would be doing that).

[macduffy]

Ahh, ok Mac, total shorted was 125,148

Overall though the point I was trying to get across that is "certain" stocks seem to be getting pounded down, Members should also cross reference that link and back track to make some sense of why a stock is falling. (I know if it were me, I would be doing that).

You may be right on that but it doesn't look to me that ELD is coming in for any particular shorting treatment at present. 7 and 8 percent in successive days is nothing out of the ordinary with plenty of stocks in the 20, 30, 40% and more. Our own TEL and SKC figure prominently on 11 March, for example.

[percy]

I am sure CRT.Farmshop,Farm Supplies.com.au.Rawlinson and Brown.rd1,and Roberts in Aussie will be upset you missed them while CRT in NZ will be also upset to be missed.

[Balance]

You maybe interested to know that in Australia there are only 2 rural sector service provider for such a large market (ELD and Landmark), while in NZ there are 4 rural service providers for a smaller market (RD1, PGW, ELD and ALF).


Try this.

http://www.ruralco.com.au/corp_vid.htm

[Balance]

I am sure CRT.Farmshop,Farm Supplies.com.au.Rawlinson and Brown.rd1,and Roberts in Aussie will be upset you missed them while CRT in NZ will be also upset to be missed.

CRT alone has 300 stores. Landmark has 401 and ELD has 370, including NZ.

Hope Dr Who did not buy into ELD thinking that it's a duopoly in Australia for rural servicing.

Australia has not gone through the same rationalisation as NZ.

[winner69]

I started this thread .... must be money to be made here .... sometime

Maybe that sometime has finally come .... looking closely over the next day or two .... maybe the opportunity has come for a trade

Laugh as you may at my primitive point anf figure but we are about a turning point I think ... if it starts diwn tomorrow and ends up at 130 we are in .... 126 has been support before

Primitive as they may this is the ELD action from Jan 3 when the consolidation took place ... pretty simple eh and signals to stay out ... red is bad / green is good ...... ... we'll see what happen

[Dr_Who]

You are on to it Winner.

Watch for the consolidation in the industry. :cool:

[Dr_Who]

AWB just came out with a downgrade. But whats is more interesting is comments about Landmark .

Mr Davis said that after a subdued first quarter, Landmark is now experiencing a significant increase in the level of activity, particularly in fertiliser and merchandise, due to improved seasonal conditions.

“Landmark is benefiting from the extensive cost reduction program which was implemented in 2009 and provided favourable conditions continue across the country, Landmark should continue to perform solidly for the remainder of the year,” Mr Davis said.

[Dr_Who]

Looking good, thanks Landmark.

Winner, did you get some at $1.27?

Watch what happens when Landmark gets taken over at a premium. ELDs will get re-rated. Who knows, maybe ELD will be the target instead of Landmark? :cool:

[Dr_Who]

Up over 8%! :eek2:

Somethings must be up for the sp to go up so much. :t_up: Is it a T/O offer?

[winner69]

The trigger on my little point and figure chart was 4 cents above the low of 126 so bought some at 130

I differ from you Dr Who - in the case of ELD is trading price and not based on fundamentals .... the comfort being that there is actually some fundamental value there .... but with ELD market (and Balance's?) sentiment reigns supreme

So may not be a shareholder tomorrow ... will just have to see how long those green X's keep coming ........ hopefully forever .... you never know

[winner69]

Finished strongly eh Dr

Don;t know what was behind it .... maybe a please explain tomorrow

Any way with a 4 cent change on that wierd looking point and figure chart I'm still in at this stage with a 135 get out point already set .... good unless it gaps down on the open any day

The 141 / 142 is real resistance though so watching carefully how it goes.

As the thread header says there must be money to be made here ... sometime .... and considering the price was 230 odd (adjusted) when I started the thread hopefully patience will be rewarded

[Dr_Who]

Finished strongly eh Dr



I would guess if it continues to move up, then something is up, maybe corporate activity. If the sp moves back down, then it is simply short covering and panic buying by insto to cover there position. I dont have a clue where it will go in the short term, but I do know it is worth $2 (analysts reports) if the sector recovers.

[Dr_Who]

Looking good. No weakness on sp even with the company announcing no info on why the sp when up so fast. I smell somethings up and it aint my arm pit. :D

[drillfix]

Speeding ticket Doc,

Perhaps they should have said in #4: Doc and Bob are buying up big time getting ready for the news...LOL

Nahh, funny stock this Doc, although stochastic chasing after the W%R which is starting to look a bit toppy,

Good moves though short term, could have nailed that one when it was -80 on the w%r Doh, :P

[Dr_Who]

Speeding ticket Doc,



Na mate. Still more to go on this one. But there will be volatility on the way up. Who knows, this market is never logical, hence there will always be opportunities to make money. I dont have a crystal ball, so I tend to stick to the fundamentals.

[Balance]

You are on to it Winner.

Watch for the consolidation in the industry. :cool:

First Dr Who asserted that there were only 2 big players.

Now he talks consolidation.

[Balance]

As the thread header says there must be money to be made here ... sometime .... and considering the price was 230 odd (adjusted) when I started the thread hopefully patience will be rewarded

Only if you bought near recent bottoms.

[Balance]

Na mate. Still more to go on this one. But there will be volatility on the way up. Who knows, this market is never logical, hence there will always be opportunities to make money. I dont have a crystal ball, so I tend to stick to the fundamentals.

Er ..still well below rights issue price.

Great Dr Who way to make money. Will be really great if more investors use such profound maths.

[Dr_Who]

Finished strongly eh Dr



Another strong day. ELD finished up another 3.6% today @ $1.43. Seems like it has easily broken through the $1.40 resistances. Next resistance $1.50?

Beautiful! :)

[Balance]

Another strong day. ELD finished up another 3.6% today @ $1.43. Seems like it has easily broken through the $1.40 resistances. Next resistance $1.50?

Beautiful! :)

Recovering lost ground and and still below the rights issue price.

[drillfix]

Seems like it has easily broken through the $1.40 resistances. Next resistance $1.50?

Needs to break oblique resis@ (1.435 intraday) daily >> $1.465 then >> $1.53 then >> $1.69

Intermediate support at $1.285 but 8ma about to cross the 20ma and about to catch the 8 train by the looks of it.

If your Fundies are correct doc you will go well there, but again needs to punch through the above.

[Dr_Who]

If your Fundies are correct doc you will go well there, but again needs to punch through the above.

Up nearly 14% in two days is not too bad. I assume it will continue its move if the overseas market is positive. Seems like alot of momentum buying coming in. I ve got a fantastic average price on ELD and are very happy holding it long term. :t_up: The result is in the pudding. Whats the saying again?... Money talks and BS walks. PGW is still stuck in a flatliner, half dead and half alive... YAWN!LOL

[Dr_Who]

Wow watch ELD go. $1.50 bid up another 5%! Up 20% in three days!

Something is up! Could it be a T/O? Hope so.

[winner69]

Wow watch ELD go. $1.50 bid up another 5%! Up 20% in three days!

Something is up! Could it be a T/O? Hope so.

Good stuff eh Dr

Will have to put a few more green X's on my little point anf figure chart tonite .... wonder how many is the question

[Dr_Who]

DJ MARKET TALK: Aussie Farm Stocks Undervalued - RBS

0335 GMT [Dow Jones] Shares in Australian agricultural companies likely undervalued,
yet to reflect benefits of rainfall through eastern states which will lift earnings, says
RBS Morgans. Moreover, further industry consolidation inevitable, offshore interest in
Australian agribusinesses will remain, it says in sector analysis; says GrainCorp
(GNC.AU) should benefit most, Incitec Pivot (IPL.AU) also to benefit from increased
domestic demand for fertilizer, while Nufarm (NUF.AU) should post strong farm chemical
sales; says merchants will benefit from rain, including AWB (AWB.AU), Elders (ELD.AU),
RuralCo (RHL.AU); says local farm companies need to consolidate to gain greater
geographic diversity, more widespread service offering. Smaller companies including
Ridley (RIC.AU), RHL, Warrnambool Cheese (WCB.AU), Maryborough Sugar Factory (MSF.AU),
mightn't be around in current form in coming years due to takeovers, RBS says.

[drillfix]

Easy come, Easy go, hope you took some off the table there Doc, although, currently looking like a bounce off the 8ma and has already touched the 20ma.

What this means is, should it fall past a $1.35 then you will b back to intermediate support at $1.28 so here is hoping you get the bounce.

Probably wouldn't bother you long holders anyways, in which case, not to worry :P

Good luck.

[Dr_Who]

:D enjoying the ride, thanks Drillfix. ELD is a small part of my entire portfolio and I have cash set aside to burn. You gotto have holding power to play this scary market.

Unlike a dead beat PGW, half dead half alive... big yawn

[winner69]

Dr .... I no longer a shareholder ..... good while it lasted over the last week .... prob see more volatilty so will leep my simple point and figure chart going .... esp if the shareprice gets down to 128 again

[Dr_Who]

Dr .... I no longer a shareholder ..... good while it lasted over the last week .... prob see more volatilty so will leep my simple point and figure chart going .... esp if the shareprice gets down to 128 again

I dont blame you for taking profit. Not bad profit for a few days work. Good trading winner.

[drillfix]

I dont blame you for taking profit. Not bad profit for a few days work. Good trading winner.

Yeah Winner, good stuff mate, wish it were me in your shoes on that one :P

[Balance]

I dont blame you for taking profit. Not bad profit for a few days work. Good trading winner.

LOL ..... Dr Who has no profit to take.

Just losses to count.

[Balance]

disc: recently bought into ELD

Share price > $1.80. Ouch!

[Balance]

Took the opportunity to pick up some cheap stocks today. :)

Share Price> $1.55.

Ouch.

[Balance]

I ve got a fantastic average price on ELD and are very happy holding it long term. The result is in the pudding. Whats the saying again?... Money talks and BS walks.

LOL - Buy at $1.80, then at $1.55 and then, at $1.40.

Fantastic average price alright!

Glad you said it - BS talks and your money walks!

:t_up:

[Dr_Who]

Did someone forget to take their medication this morning?

[Balance]

Did someone forget to take their medication this morning?

LOL - Fantastic average entry price.

Thanks, Dr Who - best laugh I have had in years!

You know they say laughter is the best medicine?

[gambier33]

Important adage: never chase stocks down; always chase them up!

[Balance]

Important adage: never chase stocks down; always chase them up!

:t_up:

LOL - Dr Who chases them down so that he can get a fantastic average entry price!

[gambier33]

Alarms bells ringing today on ELD and significant price drop. Worries with their forestry assets (FEA and ITC). I suspect they will want to clean them out with the forest industry shake out that's gaining momentum (GNS et al.). ELD will look much more attractive with a simpler operational model.

[drillfix]

To me, looks like a Bounce off $1.28 support. Nothing to freak about just yet, it may drop a couple penny below that but there should be a bounce once the indicators run in your favour.

Currently you have RSI breaking down below 50, Stochastic dropping down breaching the 20 line and W%R barely crossing to oversold.

One could say it may need to trade sideways for a few days and then once an upwards alignment of the indicators occur then a upward run will test the upper Bollinger Band and Oblique Resistance.

Of course this will help with the Fundamentals whatever they are, providing they are positive and global markets are also favourable.

Have a nice day.

[evilroyrule]

did you back that horse drilly? stupid jockey, 3 wide the whole way, still big run for third. only went down half a head. would have doubled your money. i hit for the win only. doh! silly ponies. :scared:

[Balance]

Watch out for the Chinese. They are looking to invest in forestry. China needs alot of logs and also google pulp prices, going up. They are just doing a cleanup. They next leg is up. I am a long term investor so short term weakness only means opportunity to get more.

LOL - yes, time to get your FANTASTIC average entry price from $1.65 down just a wee bit lower.

For a long term investor, you sure spend a lot of time looking at the daily share price and getting yourself all excited!

[drillfix]

did you back that horse drilly? stupid jockey, 3 wide the whole way, still big run for third. only went down half a head. would have doubled your money. i hit for the win only. doh! silly ponies. :scared:

ER, I really haven't got a clue what you mean about ....Horse??? LOL Sorry, not quite with you on that mate.

[evilroyrule]

drill, didnt i give you a hot tip for a horse sat, related to one of my horsies?

[drillfix]

drill, didnt i give you a hot tip for a horse sat, related to one of my horsies?

Nope, not that I can remember. Plus I dont bet on the pony's mate, but I am pleased your horse came in for ya :)

You seemed to be having a really good week last week with plenty of wins going on, Well done ER~

[evilroyrule]

no, im way behind drill. everything else is going sideways at best. when i give you the horse tip you load up. trust me.

[drillfix]

No worries er, but Im not registered with any Horse bet places unless there is an ASX code or something like HOR :P

[evilroyrule]

giddy up. ill put it on for you. figure you are good for it. actually i owe you for the last cxs chart.

[Balance]

Watch this space.

Ouchy ouch - Share price at all time low and has broken below support point.

Very hard to watch!

W69 - how are you reading the situation?

[drillfix]

giddy up. ill put it on for you. figure you are good for it. actually i owe you for the last cxs chart.

No worries there ER, that's very kind and considerate. May your horse come in 1st. :)

[winner69]

Ouchy ouch - Share price at all time low and has broken below support point.

Very hard to watch!

W69 - how are you reading the situation?

Balance - did have a 125 intraday low in Feb so not rock bottom yet

If it falls to 125 and then gets to 130 my good old point and figure chart would signal to have another go ....
last trade was pretty successful from that point

ELD is interesting but the more I look at it I can't help making the comparison with Nylex in the past .... the same tone to their announcements and all that and we all know that Nylex never recovered from its disasters

I hadn't realised the extent of all their forestry assets and that appears to be a burden for some time .... and winner69 hates companies (fundamentally) companies who think they can make money out of trees

Some trades though could be profitable

[Dr_Who]

Ouchy ouch - Share price at all time low and has broken below support point.

Very hard to watch!


Not as sore as your PVO and ALF...lol

I am actually happy to hold, unlike a trader like you with no holding power. My overall portfolio have done extremely well, thanks to the commodities market. The next two years, the rural sector will surprise us.

Anyway, stop following me around like a little dog sniffing my ass.

[drillfix]

Not as sore as your PVO and ALF...lol

I am actually happy to hold, unlike a trader like you with no holding power.

Anyway, stop following me around like a little dog sniffing my ass.

LOL Doc, classic.


I agree, folks, I am a classic text book case example of somebody whom has experience shock and Resentment and a hatred towards a particular CEO of a particular company.

Though my pain/nightmares may still exist and never quite go away, its not as bad, my focus is changing gradually towards a new self created direction.

Sometimes (lots of times) reading some of these posts is like watching somebody have a go at someone for something they were wrong about.

This is not healthy, and it should not continually go on like some school yard teasing campaign. We are all wrong, somewhere at some time, so there is no need for some posters to run around and put the boot in for each time a stock goes up or down.

I encourage those to post in an objective way, but not in which indirectly seem or portrait personal attacks.

Good luck to all stocks everyone holds, good or bad :P

[BRICKS]

Not as sore as your PVO and ALF...lol

I am actually happy to hold, unlike a trader like you with no holding power.

Anyway, stop following me around like a little dog sniffing my ass.

WHO your playing a danger game hear this stock EDL in Oz is a NO<NO stock and very unstable and not much to point ahead and more study is required..

ELDERS is having a Forestry Review of Assets with view to selling for best price it can get and is taking a approx $27 million hit and write down to $5 million
and now called a share holding in FEA without raving on for much longer all its assets are in the same boat you have to be brave to BUY.. GOOD LUCK...

[macduffy]

I encourage those to post in an objective way, but not in which indirectly seem or portrait personal attacks.



Well said, drillfix!

Very tiresome to have discussion of a stock continually sidetracked in that way.

Let's hope that's the end of it.

[Balance]

For the benefit of those who think ELD is very 'chip'.

Comparison of PGW versus ELD.

PGW is forecasting $24.1m so is currently trading on a forecast PER of 19 for 2010.

ELD is forecasting $54m so ELD trading on PER of 11.3 for 2010 but note that it is not taxed - so comparative PER is actually 16.2.

Note also that ELD's forecasts are dependent upon some asset sales. You might want to check on the progress of the asset sales - it's running $60m behind schedule. In fact, ELD has had to write down the value of Hi-Fert by 80%.

So knock $4m profit off ELD's forecasts - PER is now 17.5X.

A bit of a worry when ELD has to write down the value of assets so quickly after it is supposed to have cleaned out its books. What other skeletons are hiding in there?

Looks like the skeletons are falling out of the cupboards?

[BRICKS]

Looks like the skeletons are falling out of the cupboards?

ELDERS is in deep trouble they have never clean out the cupboards because they cant but are attempting to tidy shop like all management when caught out Forrests is
first on the block and hoping not to damage the industry too much to escape and move on AGI is hard at any time but so much money has been fritted away its back to
real times if you think its time to BUY fine but there will be NO quick fix or MONEY..

[Dr_Who]

Winner, did you manage to pick up some cheap ELD this morning? I pick up some more stock this morning.

Thanks Bricks. I think the market have factored into the forest writedown. I am waiting for the big one, so short term price movement is an opportunity for me. Watch AWB very carefully.

[macduffy]

And of course the review of the forestry assets is far from the first stage of ELD's "clean-out".

It follows the sale of their general insurance business to QBE; 50% of SmartFibre and the timber processing business to Gunns; and the pending sale ( last I heard) of the Hi-Fert business. ELD should end up being a much tighter focussed company.

I don't hold but watch with interest.

[winner69]

Winner, did you manage to pick up some cheap ELD this morning? I pick up some more stock this morning.



In at 129.5 at the close .... 4 up from the 125.5 low was what the good old point and figure chart says .... see what happens tomorrow ....... might go to 170 this time

[Balance]

Cheap, getting cheaper again?

Your thoughts, W69?

One thing one learns is never buy into a down trending stock until the trend reverses. What's the point of buying more of a bad story?

Trading is different and W69 does it well.

[winner69]

ELD trade not looking to hot this time around ... already a bit under water

Concern is no buying pressure .... so come on guys get into ELD while it is cheap

[Dr_Who]

ELD trade not looking to hot this time around ... already a bit under water

Concern is no buying pressure .... so come on guys get into ELD while it is cheap

LOL... what a crack up. I dont want to file SSH. :D

[winner69]

Dr - wonder where Balance is today. I needed him to comfort me and get you to buy more

The suits must be taking an extra long weekend

[Balance]

Dr - wonder where Balance is today. I needed him to comfort me and get you to buy more

The suits must be taking an extra long weekend

It is edging higher!!!!!!!!!

There's another 25% to go before someone we know so dearly on this site for averaging down breaks even.

So plenty of upside yet, W69.

[Balance]

Oops ... sliding backwards again.

Bounce off $1.25 could be just short covering?

In which case, could slide back to new new low next week?

[Dr_Who]

Watch out for the Chinese. They are looking to invest in forestry. China needs alot of logs and also google pulp prices, going up. They are just doing a cleanup. They next leg is up. I am a long term investor so short term weakness only means opportunity to get more.


Watch the Chinese eye up forestry.

Chinese demand raises log prices
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3546879/Chinese-demand-raises-log-prices

[Dr_Who]

The whole Aussie rural sector stocks had a good run today. May it continue.

[Dr_Who]

Looking good, yet again. :)

[winner69]

Dr .... that point and figure chart of mine looking better by the day mate

Hopefully I be a shareholder for longer than I was last time a few weeks ago

[macduffy]

I don't know if it has been reported previously but this article from The Bull says that ELD has lost Australian Agricultural Co's feed supplement business to Landmark.

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=10692

[winner69]

Dr - no longer a shareholder again .... sold whhen the trusty point and figure chart said when to and banked another decent profit

However the swings are getting less each time eh ... like a while ago 132 to 170 then the 128 to 151 and this last one of 125 to 141

Suggests that the volatilty is going out of ELD and we could see it consolidate around the 130 to 140 mark for some time ... not looking attractive as in the past for short term trades

Lets see what happens

[Balance]

Dr - no longer a shareholder again .... sold whhen the trusty point and figure chart said when to and banked another decent profit

However the swings are getting less each time eh ... like a while ago 132 to 170 then the 128 to 151 and this last one of 125 to 141

Suggests that the volatilty is going out of ELD and we could see it consolidate around the 130 to 140 mark for some time ... not looking attractive as in the past for short term trades

Lets see what happens

W69, you trade this thing like a master!

See they have decided to write their forest investment down to zero?

Meanwhile, PGW is getting hit because the drought is getting worse in NZ. Hard work - agriculture!

[Balance]

$1.24 - all time low.

Wonder what's the latest bad news.

[gambier33]

$1.24 - all time low.

Wonder what's the latest bad news.

Forest Enterprises Australia (FEA)

[Balance]

Another all time low.

What's the bad news to be announced?

Another write-off? Another capital raising?

[winner69]

Elders NZ essentially insolvent

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/elders-a-tight-spot-over-66-million-shareholder-debt-122239

[winner69]

jeez ,,, didn't realise it had fallen to 118

[soulman]

Another all time low.

What's the bad news to be announced?

Another write-off? Another capital raising?

This dog has too many fleas. I just realised I have 230 shares in ELD.

[Balance]

Elders NZ essentially insolvent

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/elders-a-tight-spot-over-66-million-shareholder-debt-122239

Thanks, w69.

Looks like Wrightson is kicking butts out there if Elders NZ has been losing money 2 years in a row. If ELD can sort out its Ozzy problems, it may be able to devote real effort in NZ and give PGW a run for its money.

I note that ELD recently gave a 'ra ra ra' presentation on 21st April - must have gone down flat like a pancake given the sp performance.

May have a look when the sp is 15 cents again.

[Balance]

Ouch!!!!!

New all time low.

More write-offs, profit downgrades.

Another capital raising coming up?

Looks like it may head back to 15 cents again!

[Dr_Who]

Covered my hedged postion and picked up more stocks today at $1.10. :D

Just beautiful. :)

[gambier33]

What a weasel word announcement by ELD. Read bewteen the lines. They blamed the fungus, they blamed the weather but there never blamed themselves. Self-delusion reins at Elders! They are going to have a lot of irrate MIS investors now looking at a class action.

Bail out or short furiously - they seriously fail one of Warren Buffet's investment criteria!

[Balance]

What a weasel word announcement by ELD. Read bewteen the lines. They blamed the fungus, they blamed the weather but there never blamed themselves. Self-delusion reins at Elders! They are going to have a lot or irrate MIS investors now looking at a class action.

Bail out or short furiously - they seriously fail one of the Warren Buffet's investment criteria!

Most Australian companies have recovered spectacularly after recapitalisations.

ELD has not and is now well below the rights issue price of $1.50 - me thinks the market has given its verdict on the false promises made by the company to raise the money last year.

Not to worry - Dr Who will be there to cheer the directors along.

[shasta]

Most Australian companies have recovered spectacularly after recapitalisations.

ELD has not and is now well below the rights issue price of $1.50 - me thinks the market has given its verdict on the false promises made by the company to raise the money last year.

Not to worry - Dr Who will be there to cheer the directors along.

You still shorting ELD?

[Balance]

You still shorting ELD?

For the record, Shasta, I became interested in this thread when I asked Dr Who in Feb how he ascertained ELD was cheaper than PGW. A genuine inquiry as my disclosed holding is in PGW.

Instead of enlightening us, Dr Who proceeded to launch a series of defensive and insulting know-it-all replies.

The rest as they say, is history.

----------------------------------------------- http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7182-ELD-Elders-....-must-be-money-to-be-made-here/page7 ---------------------------------------
Originally Posted by Dr_Who
Hold the horses. I wouldnt say PGW result is solid, but only in line with analyst expectations. With ELD at $1.40 and PGW at 68 cents, ELD sp is trading much cheaper than PGW. Of cos I would say that cos I hold and continue to buy ELD and not PGW.

Originally posted by Balance
Are u using forward or historical multiples? Earnings or cashflow?

Please share with us as it seems like a switch from one to the other is in order.
----------------------------------------------

[shasta]

For the record, Shasta, I became interested in this thread when I asked Dr Who in Feb how he ascertained ELD was cheaper than PGW. A genuine inquiry as my disclosed holding is in PGW.

Instead of enlightening us, Dr Who proceeded to launch a series of defensive and insulting know-it-all replies.

The rest as they say, is history.

----------------------------------------------- http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7182-ELD-Elders-....-must-be-money-to-be-made-here/page7 ---------------------------------------
Originally Posted by Dr_Who
Hold the horses. I wouldnt say PGW result is solid, but only in line with analyst expectations. With ELD at $1.40 and PGW at 68 cents, ELD sp is trading much cheaper than PGW. Of cos I would say that cos I hold and continue to buy ELD and not PGW.

Originally posted by Balance
Are u using forward or historical multiples? Earnings or cashflow?

Please share with us as it seems like a switch from one to the other is in order.
----------------------------------------------

I'll leave you & the Dr to nut it out.

Just thought with your enjoyment of seeing ELD dropping, you might have shorted it, wouldnt blame you if you did.

I dont agree with the shorting concept, but if it's there why not.

[Balance]

WHO your playing a danger game hear this stock EDL in Oz is a NO<NO stock and very unstable and not much to point ahead and more study is required..

ELDERS is having a Forestry Review of Assets with view to selling for best price it can get and is taking a approx $27 million hit and write down to $5 million
and now called a share holding in FEA without raving on for much longer all its assets are in the same boat you have to be brave to BUY.. GOOD LUCK...

You warned them, Bricks.

All time low and heading towards 15 cents again.

[shasta]

You warned them, Bricks.

All time low and heading towards 15 cents again.

That would require the $468m market cap @ $1.045, dropping down to $68m @ $0.15, a drop of $400m!

Chart is in freefall mode, but does look well oversold

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=ELD&exchange=ASX&period=6M&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=CANDLE&compi=&ma1=30&ma2=90&bb=&ind=RSI&ra=2

[Balance]

I see Citibank has put a 'Buy' on the stock with a valuation of $2.00.

[winner69]

Another article rom Aussie with plenty of words like detrying shareholder wealth / downward spiral / flushed down the drain etc

As I mentioned earlier ELD seems to be following the same path as Nylex a few years ago ... no matter what they did things just got worse and worse

Maybe one day there will be money to be made here ............

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Is-the-rain-too-late-for-Elders-pd20100511-5C58Q?OpenDocument&src=sph

[Balance]

WHO your playing a danger game hear this stock EDL in Oz is a NO<NO stock and very unstable and not much to point ahead and more study is required..

ELDERS is having a Forestry Review of Assets with view to selling for best price it can get and is taking a approx $27 million hit and write down to $5 million
and now called a share holding in FEA without raving on for much longer all its assets are in the same boat you have to be brave to BUY.. GOOD LUCK...

Great warning, Bricks.

From the article sent by W69, they have written off just about all the capital they have raised last year with more write-downs to come.

With just 20% of the Oz market and bleeding in NZ, ELD could be looking at another capital arising soon.

[Dr_Who]

Another article rom Aussie with plenty of words like detrying shareholder wealth / downward spiral / flushed down the drain etc

As I mentioned earlier ELD seems to be following the same path as Nylex a few years ago ... no matter what they did things just got worse and worse

Maybe one day there will be money to be made here ............

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Is-the-rain-too-late-for-Elders-pd20100511-5C58Q?OpenDocument&src=sph

Yeah I read that. All will be review in the profit announcement coming soon.

Anyway ELD is is only a small blip in my overall portfolio. I have plenty of fat to play with esp after cashing up on the my resource stocks with great returns. I am a long term holder of ELD and other rural stocks and happy to stay in there. Unlike others who panic constantly.

Have a nice day. :)

[winner69]

ELD reports a 104% profit increase ... good stuff

[Dr_Who]

I think the most important thing here is that ELD is on track for improvement. The rural sector is improving and ELD's have nearly finished cleaning out the mess left behind by previous management team. Debt is down and margins increased. This is what I call a turn around story. I dont own a crystal ball, so my timing maybe wrong in the short term, but in the long term the fundamentals will come through. ELD is now a potential T/O target.

Disc: Shareholder

[shasta]

I think the most important thing here is that ELD is on track for improvement. The rural sector is improving and ELD's have nearly finished cleaning out the mess left behind by previous management team. Debt is down and margins increased. This is what I call a turn around story. I dont own a crystal ball, so my timing maybe wrong in the short term, but in the long term the fundamentals will come through. ELD is now a potential T/O target.

Disc: Shareholder

Big drop off in NTA, but still a healthy $1.63 compared to the $1.045 current share price

[winner69]

Haven't red it but I take it that the announcement today was more bad news seeing the shareprice has tumbled again

As noted before reminds me of Nylex in days past

[Balance]

Haven't red it but I take it that the announcement today was more bad news seeing the shareprice has tumbled again

As noted before reminds me of Nylex in days past

Yet another profit downgrade.

Prospectus Forestry EBIT forecast down from $14.1m to $11m to $5.9m?

Meanwhile, debt levels will be going higher and higher again.

Sobering example of a company which promises a lot but cannot deliver.

[Balance]

W69, you have a fix on what kind of real multiples (EBITDA & Taxed PER) ELD is now trading on?

Trouble is that the market now has no confidence whatsoever in management.

Maybe, wait for management to start buying. Or is it like Nylex - game over?

[winner69]

W69, you have a fix on what kind of real multiples (EBITDA & Taxed PER) ELD is now trading on?

Trouble is that the market now has no confidence whatsoever in management.

Maybe, wait for management to start buying. Or is it like Nylex - game over?

Most reckon that NPAT this year will be about $40m (normalised off course cause real number will be negative zillions I think0. That would put it on a PE of 9 (market cap about $360m)

Seen a sum of the parts valuation that came in about $1.15 and the same guy did a DCF and got $1.03 but as we all know these are all dependent on what growth rate and capital cost is assummed.

Who are we to argue with such geniuses ,,,, ELD at 80 cents odd is a SCREAMING BUY

You buying Balance

[Balance]

Most reckon that NPAT this year will be about $40m (normalised off course cause real number will be negative zillions I think0. That would put it on a PE of 9 (market cap about $360m)

Seen a sum of the parts valuation that came in about $1.15 and the same guy did a DCF and got $1.03 but as we all know these are all dependent on what growth rate and capital cost is assummed.

Who are we to argue with such geniuses ,,,, ELD at 80 cents odd is a SCREAMING BUY

You buying Balance

Tempted but your caution about Nylex put me right off!

[winner69]

OMG another trading halt ...... operational update

Would have to be good news this time .... wouldn't it

Bugger .... missed the bottom big time here.

[Balance]

Someone has gone very quiet on ELD.

Prediction - if it's bad news, he has sold out.

If it's good news, he bought more at 82c?

[shasta]

Someone has gone very quiet on ELD.

Prediction - if it's bad news, he has sold out.

If it's good news, he bought more at 82c?

...and you still think it will go back to 15c....

We get the picture

[Dr_Who]

Still following around like a dog lol

I someone who are extremely quiet on pvo, alf, myr etc. As the jap says Fulof****o. Lol

[winner69]

Even though the head honcho said a month or so ago he would pissed off if he had to announce another profit downgrade (The Australian quoted this morning) looks like the $45m profit has evapoarated ... all gone .... and I like the phrase that this years profit will be a loss of $8m to $14m

What a disaster

And just like Nylex whats the reaction .... another restructure .... cut out heaps of costs ... and hope things will come right one day. Just can't this Nylex thing out of my mind .... had inside knowledge of that company's workings .... and this all seems so familiar

[Stranger_Danger]

Far out, those numbers are *awful*.

I've had this one on the outer edges of my watchlist, but i'm buggered if I know what price would interest me based on that garbage.

[winner69]

Home today ... so might buy some soon after the opening and make a quick buck or two later in the day

Panic guys ... panic guys .... you need to get out NOW

[stevo1]

The market seems to have taken your advice winner .I havent been following ELD but what the hell happened from a sp of $28 3yrs ago? Heading for the knackers yard? Now 50cps good bye Aussie icon?

[winner69]

Dangerous game this but in at 50 cents ..... see what happens over the day

Hells bells ..... 50 cents now ... didn't they have a 10 for 1 a while ago ... that makes them really worth 5 cents in the old currency .... mid 20's I recall when I started this thread

[winner69]

Not looking too good this money making scheme .... might have to cut the losses soon and try later on

[Stranger_Danger]

Must be money to be made here....?

I feel a Phaedrus chart is coming with all the lovely quotes on the way down!

[Balance]

Dangerous game this but in at 50 cents ..... see what happens over the day

Hells bells ..... 50 cents now ... didn't they have a 10 for 1 a while ago ... that makes them really worth 5 cents in the old currency .... mid 20's I recall when I started this thread

Thanks for starting and maintaining interest in ELD, W69.

There is money to be made here but I suspect not yet.

I am waiting for the next rights issue.

[soulman]

In the scheme of things, my 230 shares are getting battered hard. The shares has loss more than half it's value and I am down over a hundred bucks. Will be getting rid of it soon. Lessons learned and at least I had a win of over $2K with the SPP (15 cents) when I sold at 17 cents straight after allottment.

I am still pissed off over the fact I didn't sell the shares for over a dollar. My margin lender has the measly 230 shares locked out because they don't give margin over ELD. Hence, I have to ring them to sell it.

[winner69]

The boss says sorry .... but says not going broke

Still hanging in there but said to myself this is a quick day trade so the play money might go down a bit today ..... unless there is ruxh near the end of the day

[winner69]

Yep twas weak ..... didn't think the rush to the door would have been this bad.

Lost 6% today but will get that back in the next week or so .... will take disciplined approach next time instead of a punt with the play money

[COLIN]

I see Citibank has put a 'Buy' on the stock with a valuation of $2.00.

(Dated May 2010).

That must be a great comfort to ELD holders tonight!

What a shocker. Haven't had anything to do with Elders for many years, but some of us remember the John Elliott days - what a wonder they were!

[Balance]

(Dated May 2010).

That must be a great comfort to ELD holders tonight!

What a shocker. Haven't had anything to do with Elders for many years, but some of us remember the John Elliott days - what a wonder they were!

Analyst with $2 valuation must be super good mate with someone here.

So many warning signs.

Company says it has $110m in cash and credit lines. Watch those credit lines disappear.

My bet is another 15 cents rights issue.

But who is going to underwrite? Oh oh dear.

[winner69]

Analyst with $2 valuation must be super good mate with someone here.

So many warning signs.

Company says it has $110m in cash and credit lines. Watch those credit lines disappear.

My bet is another 15 cents rights issue.

But who is going to underwrite? Oh oh dear.

Remember NZ in dire straights .... and only going because of head office support guaranteeing funding .... that will take some (a lot) of the spare cash if called up

More like Nylex everyday .... head honcho who was the messiah not that long ago will be the next to go

[Balance]

Remember NZ in dire straights .... and only going because of head office support guaranteeing funding .... that will take some (a lot) of the spare cash if called up

More like Nylex everyday .... head honcho who was the messiah not that long ago will be the next to go

One of the most spectacular failures - rights issue was all of 8 months ago!

[winner69]

One of the most spectacular failures - rights issue was all of 8 months ago!

Didn't they raise $550m from insto's and SPP .............. and now the market cap is only $200m .... you'd think the insto's who stumped up with $400m would be slightly peeved

Hell that isn't much more than cash they have on hand ... ELD is cheap on this basis

[Balance]

http://www.theage.com.au/business/elders-goes-back-to-the-futuris-20100622-yvx7.html

Me thinks the market agrees totally now that this company and its management have not got a clue what the hell is happening in its business.

"The trashing was not just because Elders said it would make a loss of between $8 million and $14 million, rather than the $55.7 million profit it was forecasting in its $400 million share issue prospectus last September.

It was because the market struggled to understand how such a huge downturn in fortunes could be unveiled barely a month after Elders released a half-year result (the company's financial year now ends on September 30) in which it indicated everything was ''trending positively''.

[soulman]

I am tipping ELD to either be snap up by PE (longshot) or carved up and sold. Either way, SP will be heading towards the 20's before anything happen. What a disaster. And if ELD is shortable, then the dive will come sooner rather than later.

[Balance]

I am tipping ELD to either be snap up by PE (longshot) or carved up and sold. Either way, SP will be heading towards the 20's before anything happen. What a disaster. And if ELD is shortable, then the dive will come sooner rather than later.

Debt become an issue again, according to one major broker.

NET debt stood at $539m at 31 May 2010 versus market cap now of less than $200m. So much for ELD's assertion of cash plus credit facilities of $110m.

Capital raising almost inevitable.

I predict rights issue of 3 new shares for 1 at 15 cents to raise $202m (before costs).

[Stranger_Danger]

You warned them, Bricks.

All time low and heading towards 15 cents again.

Hmmm a while back at over a buck a share that looked like an idiotic comment.

It could well happen. Well called.

[percy]

Article on ELD i n the australian this morning.

[percy]

Interesting article in www.theaustralian.com Elders' rival Ruralco steadily gains market share and profitability

[Dr_Who]

I have a funny feeling there is a potential T/O coming soon for this battered and bruced stock.

[percy]

I have a funny feeling there is a potential T/O coming soon for this battered and bruced stock.

As allways you are on it Dr. InvoCare Ltd ???lol

[shasta]

As allways you are on it Dr. InvoCare Ltd ???lol

ELD - ASIC Enquiries

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ELD&E=ASX&N=338420

This could be serious

[COLIN]

ELD - ASIC Enquiries

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ELD&E=ASX&N=338420

This could be serious

ASIC announces an enquiry, and the price goes up!
They're a curious lot, these Aussies!

[Balance]

PGW's presentation yesterday shows how expensive ELD is compared to PGW.

http://file.nzx.com/000/010/3892010.pdf

Biggest problem now is that ELD now has too much debt on its balance sheet. All that money raised ($550m) - into thin air!

Watch for the rights issue to come.

I am still picking another 15 cents rights issue price.

[winner69]

Had a good trade in ELD last week ..... still momey to be made here ..... had to get another sheet of paper for the old point and figure chart because the price went off the bottom of the page of the old one (yes done on actual graph paper)

As I said before at least all the disasters that have come ELD way has takne the shareprice down to al level where bigger gains can be made .... like now it is nearly 40% off its lows .... not that I made that much last week

Don't like holding ELD over the weekend so out .... but next week might bring another opportunity

[Dr_Who]

Hate to be short in ELD when it was below 40 cents. :)

[winner69]

To right DR

Seeing things were looking positive agian today had another go a short term trade .... looking OK at the moment eh ... maybe a $1 again soon

[winner69]

Still on a roll eh Dr Who .... this is fun

Hope you having a piece of the action !!!!

[Dr_Who]

Danger Mouse is never far away from where the action are. :)

[percy]

Abit like Danger Mouse, never far when there are action. :)

Good to see you refettled Dr.

[Balance]

What a disaster for those who participated in the last rights issue.