MYF Myer Holdings

[macduffy]

Well, the Myer prospectus is now available from your friendly broker!

Before dismissing it out of hand as another Feltex, I'll be having a hard look at the numbers. Once I get past the cover (Jennifer? Hawkins ) that is.

;)

[macduffy]

Michael Pascoe, Brisbane Times, isn't too keen on it!

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/psst-wanna-buy-an-expensive-used-store-20090928-g8jk.html

[winner69]

This float will a great success .... you really need to try your best to get some .... like my wife has a Myer Card but we found an Aussie address to use so she'e registered

Irrespective of the valuations and all that sort of stuff high demand assured ..... and the shareprice will be higher post float ..... maybe mightn't want to be holding in a years time but thats another story

Goodwill close to a billion ... surely Jennifer is worth more than that

[Dr_Who]

Will be interested in looking at the numbers.

Can someone be kind enough to post up the numbers comparing to other retails in its sector?

Are they retaining any cash raised for growth or is it all going in the pockets of private equities?

[macduffy]

I don't think it's that easy, doc.

The only comparison really is with David Jones and that's not completely apples for apples, as DJ's is more upmarket than Myer.
To make it harder of course the float price is an unknown between $3.90 and $4.90, depending on the tender.

I'll be spending a bit of time on it tomorrow, all going well, but don't feel too confident about coming to too firm a conclusion so will probably give it a miss. Best to access the prospectus and DYOR, I reckon.

[Huang Chung]

I heard David Jones' Mark McInnes say that Myer will be carrying something like 4 times the debt of DJs.

I was at Myer Carindale last week in the ladies apparal area (with my wife). The wall mounted fixtures where the outfits hang from was very dirty.

Best place to check to see what sort of pride the staff have in their store is in whitegoods...have a look on top of the fridges for dirt and dust.

[COLIN]

I don't know a great deal about Myer, apart from trailing along behind my wife through stores on visits to Aust, but whenever IPO's come up these days I keep reminding myself that Warren Buffet says he never touches them. And when I have dabbled in the past I have usually found that, once the managed after-float is out of the way, nothing too exciting happens. Of course there are always exceptions to the rule, and we could all name some, but I would claim that generally there is greater reward to be obtained when one concentrates on sniffing out undiscovered potential from existing listed shares. And where the seller is a private equity fund I would be doubly cautious.

[winner69]

Michael Pascoe, Brisbane Times, isn't too keen on it!

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/psst-wanna-buy-an-expensive-used-store-20090928-g8jk.html

Pascoe mentioned page 30 --- prefer Jen on that page over the front cover

Jen is worth more than a billion in goodwill

[Huang Chung]

Here is the guts of that sky interview I mentioned above.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/we-cant-wait-for-myer-float-dj-chief-20090928-g7zj.html

[winner69]

This is what happened when Texas were involved in giving a big retailer back to the public

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DEB.L&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

[COLIN]

This is what happened when Texas were involved in giving a big retailer back to the public

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DEB.L&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Scary, eh! Of course the whole world plunged into recession shortly afterwards, and I guess the Myer float does come at a more advantageous time - but not if we're heading for the dreaded W rather than a V, I suppose.

Caveat emptor!

[macduffy]

You raise an interesting point, KW and the famous Feltex example readily comes to mind.

On the other hand we have the undoubted success of IPO'd companies such as WOW, DOW and FRE, others such as SKC and if we count privatised state firms then we can include the likes of CBA, CEN and TLS ( not such a shining star at present!)

My point is that I don't think we can dismiss "re-floated from private equity" companies completely as poor investments per se but we certainly need to take particular care in our evaluation of them.

[winner69]

I also think that the price will be artificially higher than it should be based on financials, as they are promoting it primarily to their own customers. Using JH to promote the float was designed to get people to see only the brand rather than the company per se. The end result is a lot of unsophisticated investors applying for shares, happy to pay any price for their "piece of myer", which penalises those who want to pay what the company is worth based on cashflow and dividends.

Isn't that what marketing is all about ... with the objective of having a price tag more than it is 'fundamentally' worth

I don't think that those who only want to pay what the company is worth are being 'penalised' .... sometimes things do cost more eh

But those people will get their price one day I reckon

Jennifer is worth a billion bucks eh

[Dr_Who]

I cant decide on this one if I should participate or not.

Mcduffy what are you gonna do on Myers? You getting any?

[macduffy]

Hi doc.

I have the chance to be in the draw, so to speak, but no guarantee as to amount.

But I don't think I will. They look a bit steep to me, especially when there are other opportunities out there. I especially don't like the fairly wide price range, $3-90 to $4-90 although I appreciate that this is fairly common practice in tendered IPO's.
So although it looks like getting solid support from its loyal Myer card customers I think I'll let it pass and keep my powder dry.

[Dr_Who]

Yeah I am thinking the same thing. Starting to run out of funds and have to be abit picky on my stock picks from now on or sell something.

[Dr_Who]

Fund manager says Myer float overpriced, opportunistic

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,,26146536-643,00.html?from=public_rss

[cantab]

Interesting that Woolworths with a market cap of $36b, and Myer (at the top of it's pricing range) would both be on forward 2010 Pe's of 17.3

At the bottom of it's pricing range Myer would be selling on on a forward PE of 14.3

I own Woolies.

[macduffy]

Interesting that Woolworths with a market cap of $36b, and Myer (at the top of it's pricing range) would both be on forward 2010 Pe's of 17.3

At the bottom of it's pricing range Myer would be selling on on a forward PE of 14.3

I own Woolies.

Yes, food for thought!

The difference is that WOW has a track record of success and now holds a commanding position in its sector, although now taking on some added risk with its hardware plans, whereas MYF has it all in front of it - maybe - and a host of strong competitors across the various fields it deals in - apparel, whiteware, electronics, furniture etc.

I own neither but if looking to invest today I think I'd be choosing WOW.

[Dr_Who]

I told my broker last week that I am not interested in this one.

Got lots of other good cheap companies to play with on the market.

[Footsie]

decided to stick to my rule of thumb
Never invest in an IPO that is being spun out of Private equity. for obvious reasons.

[Xerof]

Quagmyer in my humble opinion

[COLIN]

Quagmyer in my humble opinion

Brilliant!

[macduffy]

Quagmyer in my humble opinion

I doubt it's that bad!

:D

But I'm not interested either - at this stage.

;)

[Dr_Who]

Will be an interesting listing. I am guessing everyone buying into this is expecting a stag.

hmmmm... should one go short or long? :rolleyes:

[macduffy]

Here's Tim Boreham's (The Australian) views on the Myer float.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26179593-23634,00.html

[Dr_Who]

What day is listing?

It will be better than watching TV.

[macduffy]

Hard to get past the cover of the sales catalogue - sorry, prospectus!

But buried in there it says that the float price will be determined on 30 October and listing on a conditional and deferred settlement basis on or about 2 November.

[Dr_Who]

Brian Gaynor article on Myers and Kathamandu.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10602282

[contrarianinvestor]

Brian Gaynor article on Myers and Kathamandu.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10602282

Good article. They even advertise Myer shares on TV! That is scary. I personally think such heavy selling should be outlawed because the average mum and dad investor doesn't understand that a good company at a high price makes a bad investment. (Perhaps the lawmakers doesn't understand either.) Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett warned us against these practices for many years.

[contrarianinvestor]

Interesting that Woolworths with a market cap of $36b, and Myer (at the top of it's pricing range) would both be on forward 2010 Pe's of 17.3

At the bottom of it's pricing range Myer would be selling on on a forward PE of 14.3.

Keep in mind that short term earnings may be inflated at a long term cost. A letter in the latest BRW magazine states "Many experienced, loyal employees have been made redundant. That is the classic razor-gang, corporate cost cutting strategy and once concluded will make the bottom line look healthier by simple default . . . great idea if the intention is to sell the business."

[macduffy]

Good article. They even advertise Myer shares on TV! That is scary. I personally think such heavy selling should be outlawed because the average mum and dad investor doesn't understand that a good company at a high price makes a bad investment. (Perhaps the lawmakers doesn't understand either.) Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett warned us against these practices for many years.

Well, it's a case of caveat emptor, surely?

It's been a while since it happened but I remember back in the heady times that it was quite common to see heavy TV and press advertising of new floats. Often after the issues were effectively oversubscribed.

Investors certainly have to be sceptical and discerning but I'm still wishing I'd taken the bait on the WOW and CBA floats!


;)

[macduffy]

A nice bit of clear thinking from one of my favourite columnists, Stephen Bartholomeusz.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Myer-Bernie-Brookes-Retail-Economy-pd20091008-WM2VS?OpenDocument&src=kgb

[Huang Chung]

An interesting perspective macduffy.

The Myer float is also being heavily pitched to its 'Myer 1' customers (loyalty card)...telling them they can now own their own piece of Myer.

Dangerous business pitching an overpriced float to your best customers.....

[cantab]

Yes, food for thought!

The difference is that WOW has a track record of success and now holds a commanding position in its sector, although now taking on some added risk with its hardware plans, whereas MYF has it all in front of it - maybe - and a host of strong competitors across the various fields it deals in - apparel, whiteware, electronics, furniture etc.

I own neither but if looking to invest today I think I'd be choosing WOW.

WOW's sales (ex petrol) were up 8.5% for the past year whereas Myer was down .8% over last 2 years and expecting 3% growth in current year.

Easier to reduce the cost to sales ratio even if costs increasing if have significant top line revenue growth. Banks are masters at it.

Very happy to have purchased more WOW shares on Friday in the DRP.

[Dr_Who]

Myer family retain 1% after store float

October 15, 2009 - 6:54PM
AAP

The Myer family has decided to retain just over one per cent of Myer Holdings Ltd after the department store chain is floated in November.

The Myer Family Company Pty Ltd will retain 6.5 million shares in Myer Holdings, about 20 per cent of the current 41.8 million shares it already holds through subsidiary MF Custodians Ltd, the Melbourne-based family company said in a statement on Thursday.

Myer will have between 564.8 million and 585 million shares on issue after listing on the Australian Securities Exchange, meaning the Myer Family will hold between 1.15 and 1.11 per cent of the company.

The company plans to sell the shares for an initial price of between $3.90 and $4.90.

Under the Myer Holdings prospectus lodged last month, the Myer family had indicated it would retain between zero and 8.4 million shares, depending on the outcome of an institutional bookbuild.

The Myer Family company also holds a 33 per cent interest in Myer Holdings' flagship store in Melbourne.

The retail offer opened on October 6 and will close on October 23, ahead of the opening of the institutional offer on October 28.

The final price of the shares and allocations will be revealed on October.

The stock is expected to begin trading on the exchange on November 2.

© 2009 AAP

[macduffy]

Interesting article on the Australian retail scene.

http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/managing/myer-goes-public--but-does-the-public-care-20091014-gwfv.html

[macduffy]

It looks like the price is $4.10.

Is anyone in?

Disc: Not me.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Myer-price-tightens-at-lower-end-of-range-report-pd20091029-XA47A?OpenDocument&src=tnb

[Dr_Who]

Still at a PE of 15x! :eek:

All the bored housewives will be loving this stock. Something for them to talk about at the cafes.

[whatsup]

Soft opening in a down day $3.88

[Dr_Who]

Well, all those mums and dads holding a myers club card and myers shares wont have any money left to spend at Myers. :D

[Balance]

Well, all those mums and dads holding a myers club card and myers shares wont have any money left to spend at Myers. :D

Any particular reason why are you so gleeful at their misfortune?

[soulman]

Just the moms Dr, I doubt a bloke would shop at Myers, let alone doing the shopping. Men are online people. We buy stuff on the net and gets them delivered. We don't function properly when we are in the shopping centre.

As for MYR float, I was suprise it was in hot demand. I guess employees and Myers card holder thinks their coy are great whereas they are not great investor and only buy things on instinct.

My prediction for MYR float on their 1st day last Friday (when the $4.10 price was set) was $4 on a stable market and it changed to $3.90 when the carnage in the US overnight.

MYR was always going to be a flop. I hope none at sharetrader bought this dog with flea. They could close down near 10% by the looks of it.

[Dr_Who]

MYR was always going to be a flop. I hope none at sharetrader bought this dog with flea. They could close down near 10% by the looks of it.


The writing was on the wall with bright flashing signs. There has been numerous negative articles in the press highlighting why Myers IPO will be a flop. A number of posters on here including myself have said NO to this IPO.

[soulman]

The writing was on the wall with bright flashing signs. There has been numerous negative articles in the press highlighting why Myers IPO will be a flop. A number of posters on here including myself have said NO to this IPO.

And yet the public went ahead and buy some. I think the public thinks that since the share market is up, Myers was going to be a hit. It was a misconception because the coy is poo, compared to even DJS. I think that's why you are having a go at the mums and dads. The stags profits punters hoped for are history and the loss are being taken here at the mo. Punters don't like hangin into stock for too long. One day is too long. Mums and dads might put them in the bottom drawer and in 2 years time, see their investment halfs. DYOR.

[whatsup]

And yet the public went ahead and buy some. I think the public thinks that since the share market is up, Myers was going to be a hit. It was a misconception because the coy is poo, compared to even DJS. I think that's why you are having a go at the mums and dads. The stags profits punters hoped for are history and the loss are being taken here at the mo. Punters don't like hangin into stock for too long. One day is too long. Mums and dads might put them in the bottom drawer and in 2 years time, see their investment halfs. DYOR.

To correct you the "float " WAS a success, its the "after market " that isnt doing too well, the price will settle where and when who knows but IMHO this share should have been priced at a p/e of 11 for 2010 for this present stage of the economic out look .
Mug punters/investors, instutional et al possibly advised by car sales men in suits.

[macduffy]

Myer is an "institution" in Australia, or at least it was when I lived in Melbourne several years ago. Some astronomical number of Myer cards on issue, many of the holders of which would want a bit of the action, merely because it was offered. So I'm not surprised that the offer was eagerly taken up.

I wonder how much of today's selling was "additional sell-down" from the former private equity owners/directors/maagement?

[soulman]

I had a friend that was going to invest in MYR and I said to him that it has 97% downside risk and 3% upside. The upside would be the potential stag and that the stag would only last a few days until the slide into negative territory. The reason for him to invest could be the nice shiny prospectus he received in the mail as a Myers loyalty card holder. Other than that, the bloke does not have the faintest idea about the stockmarket. In the end, he gave it a missed. He can still buy it now on-market at a discount.

OK whatups, the IPO was a success to the sellers (because they want to exit in a good market condition) and investment banker (fee making machine). Private Equity are vultures capitalist, aren't they?

[Balance]

Soulman appears after the shares list to 'tell you so'. What brilliant hindsight!

An absolutely brilliant selldown by the PE funds - Ozzy Ozzy Oink X 3.

The punters will simply have to view Jennifer Hawkins for some consolation :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hufKmlWzuyM&NR=1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMUDxCIlE2U&feature=related

[whatsup]

And yet the public went ahead and buy some. I think the public thinks that since the share market is up, Myers was going to be a hit. It was a misconception because the coy is poo, compared to even DJS. I think that's why you are having a go at the mums and dads. The stags profits punters hoped for are history and the loss are being taken here at the mo. Punters don't like hangin into stock for too long. One day is too long. Mums and dads might put them in the bottom drawer and in 2 years time, see their investment halfs. DYOR.


I had a friend that was going to invest in MYR and I said to him that it has 97% downside risk and 3% upside. The upside would be the potential stag and that the stag would only last a few days until the slide into negative territory. The reason for him to invest could be the nice shiny prospectus he received in the mail as a Myers loyalty card holder. Other than that, the bloke does not have the faintest idea about the stockmarket. In the end, he gave it a missed. He can still buy it now on-market at a discount.

OK whatups, the IPO was a success to the sellers (because they want to exit in a good market condition) and investment banker (fee making machine). Private Equity are vultures capitalist, aren't they?

Its a big bad world out there and if you/we dont ever forget one rule about investing its this "YOU DONT EVER BUY A INVESTMENT OFF (IMHO ) A SPI^ !!"

[soulman]

OK Balance, I changed my prediction to MYR opened at $3.88 went as high as $3.93, low of $3.70 and finished at $3.75. Top traded stock by volume today.

[Dr_Who]

If you are a Myers holder, watch out for an important date... 16th Nov. There maybe further weakness.

[h2so4]

If you are a Myers holder, watch out for an important date... 16th Nov. There maybe further weakness.

Why what's the occasion????

[Snow Leopard]

Why what's the occasion????
First trading day after the Myer Christmas Parade of course ;)

[Dr_Who]

Why what's the occasion????

Thats when they allow short selling on MYR. ;)

[h2so4]

Thats when they allow short selling on MYR. ;)

ouch......I thought it may have been Jennifer's birthday. I hope she's at the Christmas Parade.:D

[Huang Chung]

Was having a look at the laptops at Myer Chermside today. Dust all over them.....really pathetic presentation/image in a highly competitive sector (JB HiFi, Harvey Norman, Good Guys etc etc).

In view of my past 'recon missions' at MYF, it just seems these guys don't know how to clean. No attention to the little things it seems.

[winner69]

Down to 344 today .... now 17% down from IPO price of $4.12

Hope Jennifer has sold the lot she got for services rendered

[winner69]

Just as well i told Jenni to sell her shares ... saved her a bomb

Down to 318 ... that seems to be about a buck less than the IPO price ... or 25% odd

Didn't PE do well ... what a fantastic float for them eh

[Dr_Who]

MYR and KMD = ouch!

[soulman]

Just as well i told Jenni to sell her shares ... saved her a bomb

Down to 318 ... that seems to be about a buck less than the IPO price ... or 25% odd

Didn't PE do well ... what a fantastic float for them eh

Is that Jennifer Hawkins you were refering to?

[Dr_Who]

MYR shareholders should watch this video. There is an excellent analysis summary of what MYR is worth near the end of the video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKQzayf6MfI

[winner69]

Fund managers got screwed good and proper and now moaning

Promotors did OK and the advisors got $60m from the 'new' investors as well

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/myers-float-flop-raises-concern-among-fund-managers/story-e6frg8zx-1225841109079

[Dr_Who]

Oh dear, not looking good for MYR.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/beauty-cant-help-myers-beastly-stock-price-20100517-v7tz.html

[Huang Chung]

Myer chief executive Bernie Brookes wishes the department store chain had not listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and had remained a private company.
Mr Brookes told a business briefing in Perth today that he preferred running Myer when it was under the ownership of private equity interests as it took too much time to manage the expectations of shareholders.
He told journalists after the briefing that he wished Myer was still a private company.
"I think it is unfortunate that private equity has been tarred with the number of brushes that I think are quite unjust," Mr Brookes told the briefing.
"The private companies that I've worked for, or had the opportunity to view, have run the business the way it should be run.
"The reality is our management team spend an excessive amount of time managing and talking to a multiple number of investors, a lot of time with analysts to the market.
"Managing a large number of shareholders is like herding cats. You've got a large diversity of shareholders, all with different needs.
"It's a lot simpler when you've got one owner who owns 82 per cent of the business and is quite happy each week to have a half-hour update on how their investment is going."
Mr Brookes said travelling to meet various investors was time consuming and he would prefer to spend more time focusing on the core business.
"You move from being a retailer to a finance manager to an equity market manager," he said. "Someone like myself likes to spend most of his time in stores.
"The second disadvantage is that investors' values are not really reflected by the performance of the company.
"I've seen some great businesses that have not had their value reflected in the share price."
Myer's $2.2 billion float late last year was widely considered by analysts to be disappointing, with the share price languishing below the issue price of $4.10 ever since.
Myer shares were up 10 cents, or 2.8 per cent, to $3.68 in late morning trade.
AAP

Geez...If I were a shareholder, I'd be thrilled hearing this....

[JayPe]

The share price is starting to get closer to the issue price ($3.97 at time of writing), but the Myer float is a really good case study for those considering the QR National float. The strategy is simple: Go heavy on the glossy, light on the data, and use the large marketing budget to persuade mums and dads that this is an opportunity too good to lose, owing to the iconic nature of the company.

[Huang Chung]

The share price is starting to get closer to the issue price ($3.97 at time of writing), but the Myer float is a really good case study for those considering the QR National float. The strategy is simple: Go heavy on the glossy, light on the data, and use the large marketing budget to persuade mums and dads that this is an opportunity too good to lose, owing to the iconic nature of the company.

One big difference, with QR, no nice pics of Jennifer Hawkins...

I'm not going anywhere near this IPO.

[winner69]

Profits haven't fallen but shareprice now less than half of what it floated at .... under $2

Thats what happens when valuations drop eh

[soulman]

And yet the public went ahead and buy some. I think the public thinks that since the share market is up, Myers was going to be a hit. It was a misconception because the coy is poo, compared to even DJS. I think that's why you are having a go at the mums and dads. The stags profits punters hoped for are history and the loss are being taken here at the mo. Punters don't like hangin into stock for too long. One day is too long. Mums and dads might put them in the bottom drawer and in 2 years time, see their investment halfs. DYOR.

Here you are Balance, saying that I only do things on hindsight bias.

Last sentence says it all. I got lucky but the timeframe is bloody damn close.

PS: There has been 44.5 cents of FF div distributed since IPO.

[nztx]

It looks like MYR are out of the mire now :)

1.5c Div Fully franked declared today


https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02497533-3A589505?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

[clearasmud]

It looks like MYR are out of the mire now :)

1.5c Div Fully franked declared today


https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02497533-3A589505?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4
I've been waiting for this since first buying at 18c.
I thought it was cheap when I compared it to the Warehouse which is about the same size.
I know a rough way to compare!
This outfit also has net cash of $200m.
Hopefully they can make $50m next year which puts them on a prospective pe of 9.