Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER [Archive] - Page 2

ananda77

05-03-2010, 08:29 AM

Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 04 March 2010

http://i1032.photobucket.com/albums/a403/kbohm/z.jpg

www.invetrics.com:- data point 04 March 2010

http://i47.tinypic.com/2lo3zvs.png (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 04 March 2009-

...up-condition with 5% up-target to next resistance -data point 02 March 2010-

Trader Update -data point 04 March 2010:

...the SPX 500 struggling to continue trading positive with up-momentum even more critical than throughout the current advance, but the slow and steady uptrend remains intact for now; consequently, further gains towards the *1130 level within the next two days are within reach as long as the short term support *1116 is not taken out

...trading below *1116 will rapidly increase the potential of the up-bias reversing with the Feb 25 Low *1086 as the confirming negative pivot point for further accelaerated losses towards the 200-day MA *1035 (+)

...as a short term risk trade, short positions around current levels likely to be profitable by option expiry 19 March 2010 with a 300 m call bet on the SPX 500 Cash to trade above the *1090 level by end of March 2010

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

06-03-2010, 07:24 AM

Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 05 March 2010

http://i1032.photobucket.com/albums/a403/kbohm/z.jpg

www.invetrics.com:- data point 05 March 2010

http://i47.tinypic.com/2nl4cgx.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 05 March 2009-

...up-condition with 5% up-target to next resistance -data point 02 March 2010-

Trader Update -data point 05 March 2010:

...the SPX 500 surged higher into the *1130 level taking out the Jan 20 Low *1129 resistance with ease following the jobs data; despite low volume, further gains are likely and the market is in for a challenge of the Jan 21 High *1142 with scope to reach the Jan 11 Peak *1151; as a matter of fact, a new recovery High *1190 could be on the menue

...a drop below March 3 Low *1116 would indicate bearish sentiment returning

...as a short term risk trade, short positions around current levels likely to be profitable by option expiry 19 March 2010 with a 300 m call bet on the SPX 500 Cash to trade above the *1090 level by end of March 2010

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

09-03-2010, 07:23 AM

Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 08 March 2010

http://i1032.photobucket.com/albums/a403/kbohm/z.jpg

www.invetrics.com:- data point 08 March 2010

http://i49.tinypic.com/24ox27d.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 08 March 2009-

...up-condition -data point 02 March 2010-

Trader Update -data point 08 March 2010:

...the SPX 500 opened slightly firmer with a session High *1141 but trading is sluggish around this level leaving room for a mild correction to affirm the Mar 5 Low *1123 early in the week; based on the bullish sentiment dominating the current markets, another leg higher would target the Jan 11 Peak *1151 or possibly Oct-Jan trendline resistance *1178 following the correction from currently overbought levels
...a drop below March 3 Low *1116 would indicate bearish sentiment returning

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

10-03-2010, 07:30 AM

Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 09 March 2010

http://i1032.photobucket.com/albums/a403/kbohm/z.jpg

www.invetrics.com:- data point 09 March 2010

http://i40.tinypic.com/98hutl.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 09 March 2009-

...up-condition -data point 02 March 2010-

Trader Update -data point 09 March 2010:

...the SPX 500 respected the daily support level *1133 pre-open and traded higher to *1145 so far, again at the lowest volume levels for the current advance; up-tick momentum remains sluggish at extremely near term overbought levels and market breadth features just positive
...as a result, it is unlikely that the market has enough strength near term to surge to new highs in any suatainable way without working off thses extreme levels in a corrective shake-out that would see the Mar 3 High *1125 or March 3 Low *1117 affirmed
...following a successful defense in these levels, the target following the Jan 11 Peak *1151 would be the yearly trendline resistance currently *1172 with potential to reach out to a yearly upper channel resistance *1246
...a drop below March 3 Low *1116 would indicate bearish sentiment returning

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

peat

10-03-2010, 08:33 AM

those Americans sure know how to buy stuff.... do you think they can pay up? ;+)

ananda77

10-03-2010, 05:07 PM

those Americans sure know how to buy stuff.... do you think they can pay up? ;+)

...the market is extremely Extended, which is of course no guarantee that it will tank tomorrow -still over a week to next Friday's option expiration- but if an extended market tanks, it's always most dramatic and too late for anyone net long in there

...I am very sure, they (insiders) would love to keep the Call Option Premium, they sold for March expiration..............and a market ready for tanking???? ......and the SPX 500 target *1200 will not be harmed with a drop to the *1095/*1085 area!!!!

Kind Regards

ananda77

11-03-2010, 07:31 AM

Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 10 March 2010

http://i1032.photobucket.com/albums/a403/kbohm/z.jpg

www.invetrics.com:- data point 10 March 2010

http://i41.tinypic.com/21bn7rk.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 10 March 2009-

...up-condition -data point 02 March 2010-

Trader Update -data point 10 March 2010:

...volume spiking in yesterday's outside day sell-off; today, once again, the SPX 500 slowly creeping upward towards the *1151 mark on low volume but an imminent sell-off to affirm the March 3 Low *1117 near term still cannot be ruled out
...a drop below March 3 Low *1116 would indicate bearish sentiment returning

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

12-03-2010, 06:58 AM

Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 11 March 2010

http://i1032.photobucket.com/albums/a403/kbohm/z.jpg

www.invetrics.com:- data point 11 March 2010

http://i41.tinypic.com/21bn7rk.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 11 March 2009-

...up-condition -data point 02 March 2010-

Trader Update -data point 11 March 2010:

...the SPX 500 respected the daily support *1138 and continues to consolidate below the Jan 11 Peak *1151 ready for another advance to challenge near term upper resistance channel current *1156 with potential to reach out to yearly trendline resistance current *1174 before a possible bearish reversal would test the *1117 pivot point to work off an extremely extended market
...a drop below March 3 Low *1116 would indicate bearish sentiment returning

Long Term: THE BEAR

arco

12-03-2010, 01:10 PM

.
I mentioned on the 4th “potential building for printing an Evening Star, although still 18 hours before candle end a more confirmation needed to be totally sure that a top is in.”
The Evening Star pattern did not complete as you can see in the diagram below - invalidating the Purple Trace. It always pays to wait for the completion of any candle pattern before considering a position. As you see once the candle closed it gave a completely different (bullish) picture with also an Ichimoku buy signal appearing – all 3 elements confirming (yellow spots).

http://i43.tinypic.com/nn5g1s.gif

ananda77

12-03-2010, 10:11 PM

ananda77

13-03-2010, 09:32 AM

Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 12 March 2010

http://i43.tinypic.com/nn5g1s.gif

www.invetrics.com:- data point 12 March 2010

http://i41.tinypic.com/21bn7rk.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 12 March 2009-

...up-condition with duress warning (overbought) -data point 02 March 2010-

Trader Update -data point 12 March 2010:

...the SPX 500 started trading with a new 17-month High *1153 followed by profit taking, later recovering to another High *1156 followed by more profit taking; institutional index core holdings http://i44.tinypic.com/4jxp9g.jpg right under the primary support line and the NYSE algorithm http://i43.tinypic.com/16a66mo.jpg features extremely overbought; furthermore, market breadth still positive but extremely low volume puts a more bearish stamp on it as it is more likely that institutions were sellers in today's market

...time to take some profit possibly down to *1117 before the next advance (keep in mind the option trade for upcoming option expiry Friday March 19)

...March 3 *1117 is the SPX 500 pivot point

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

arco

13-03-2010, 04:13 PM

Hi Ananda. Yes, somewhere around the yellow box above the recent action may be an area to consider for reversal

ananda77

15-03-2010, 11:34 AM

...found this analysis on the net recently:

" since March 2009 this market (the SPX 500) has never done what it has always done in the past 60 years;

the market is now 51 weeks at all time historic overbought with no indication stocks above the 200 day moving average will ever again drop to normal oversold; the market sure looks like in a parabolic blow-off toward SPX 500 *2000/*3000;

if March down cycle projected High *1107 is not taken out this month, odds are, the parabolic blow off pattern is in play = no correction more than 23% since March 2009 Low -one 38% correction followed by the final blow off straight up to the exhaustion top and usually advance more than 100% to as much as 250%

the bad news is, a parabolic blow off only happens at the very end of a society "

...the current path: sell-off 38% to as far as March 09 Low funny number *666 from anywhere at any time now (the dive depending on the starting number of the sell-off) then straight up to the SPX 500 *2000/*3000 level

---funds are down to an average 3.6 % cash level
---complacency/bullish sentiment on FULL LULL/BLOWN UP
---insiders getting more and more desperate to sell a fundamentally ****ed-up story
---where's the cash for another substantial advance going to come from (guess not from the MAMMAS and PAPAS)

Kind Regards

ananda77

16-03-2010, 08:00 AM

Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 15 March 2010

http://i43.tinypic.com/nn5g1s.gif

www.invetrics.com:- data point 15 March 2010

http://i41.tinypic.com/21bn7rk.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 15 March 2009-

...up-condition with duress warning (overbought) -data point 02 March 2010-

Trader Update -data point 15 March 2010:

...while the NYSE algorithm moved to extreme oversold, institutions sold the rallies last Friday as expected http://i40.tinypic.com/rgxxz6.jpg setting the tone for today's decline; the SPX 500 trades slightly lower today after Firday's new 17-month High *1153 but until the FOMC meeting is over, the market could remain in consolidation around current levels; one fact however strikes in regards to market internals: a slight increase in the number of new lows

...as a consquence, the market could still be set for another drive higher into the upper short term resistance current *1165 following a positive Fed announcement -exeptional low/extended period- but this drive higher could be abruptlly stopped by a classic 'sell the fact' move out of the extremely overbought levels to affirm the Mar 3 Low *1117 (-)

...March 3 *1117 remains the SPX 500 pivot point

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

17-03-2010, 08:15 AM

Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 16 March 2010

http://i43.tinypic.com/nn5g1s.gif

www.invetrics.com:- data point 16 March 2010

http://i44.tinypic.com/sdmp3o.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 16 March 2009-

...up-condition with duress warning (overbought) -data point 02 March 2010-

Trader Update -data point 16 March 2010:

...the SPX 500 traded to a new 17-month High *1158 but selling has become apparent after the Fed announcement and the rally is likely to be unsustainable; a bearish reversal would target the the Mar 3 Low *1117 initially

...expecting a successful *1117 defense, another SPX 500 advance would take out today's High *1158 and surge higher towards yearly trendline resistance current *1175 before a potential deeper correction would occur

*1117 remains the SPX 500 pivot point

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

Phaedrus

17-03-2010, 11:17 AM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP500317.gif

ananda77

17-03-2010, 01:53 PM

Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 16 March 2010

http://i43.tinypic.com/nn5g1s.gif

www.invetrics.com:- data point 16 March 2010

http://i44.tinypic.com/xomcqq.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 16 March 2009-

...up-condition with duress warning (overbought) -data point 02 March 2010-

Trader Update -data point 16 March 2010:

...the SPX 500 traded to a new 17-month High *1158 but selling has become apparent after the Fed announcement and the rally is likely to be unsustainable; a bearish reversal would target the the Mar 3 Low *1117 initially

...expecting a successful *1117 defense, another SPX 500 advance would take out today's High *1158 and surge higher towards yearly trendline resistance current *1175 before a potential deeper correction would occur

*1117 remains the SPX 500 pivot point

after market Close: the SPX 500 broke out of a 5-month sideways trading range (+/- 50 either side of *1100) and could surge now higher into yearly trendline resistance current *1175 (+);

BE AWARE: Market Tops happen in overbought territory and this market is now extremely extended

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

18-03-2010, 08:04 AM

Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 17 March 2010

http://i43.tinypic.com/nn5g1s.gif

www.invetrics.com:- data point 17 March 2010

http://i44.tinypic.com/xomcqq.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 17 March 2009-

...up-condition with duress warning (overbought) -data point 02 March 2010-

Trader Update -data point 17 March 2010:

...the SPX 500 traded to a new intraday 17-month High *1170 with broad market support and a Close above *1165 would bode well for an intermediate SPX 500 target in the *1200 area; in the near term however, the *1171/*1175 range needs to be penetrated initially;

...ithe market is extremely extended; the put/call ratio http://i42.tinypic.com/2945bgj.jpg stood at 0.54 yesterday and the %SPX 500-stocks above the 50-day MA http://i39.tinypic.com/161hwko.jpg stood above 85%, making a long call on the market a high risk affair

BE AWARE: this market is now extremely extended

*1117 remains the SPX 500 pivot point

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

19-03-2010, 07:40 AM

Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 18 March 2010

http://i43.tinypic.com/nn5g1s.gif

www.invetrics.com:- data point 18 March 2010

http://i39.tinypic.com/zmzc09.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 18 March 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/1zcn8f6.jpg -The Institutional Index is now +0.27% above its "double top" resistance.

Trader Update -data point 18 March 2010:

...so far, the SPX 500 has been unable to trade above yesterday's new 17-month High *1170 and is moderately lower today downticking in a trickle; the 12 March Congestion *1157/*1160 is today's support and likely to hold into 19 March option expiration with a potential to challenge yearly trendline resistance current *1176 tomorrow;

-the put/call ratio http://i44.tinypic.com/a3ff3c.jpg stood at 0.52 yesterday
-the %SPX 500-stocks above the 50-day MA http://i40.tinypic.com/29wuxcx.jpg stood above 88%, making a long call on the market a high risk affair
-selling is slightly above buying on higher down volume
-institutional buying has weakened over a weekly period while selling spiked higher on Monday
-inflowing liquidity has been very positive but it's not institutions buying this market

BE AWARE: this market is now extremely extended

*1117 remains the SPX 500 pivot point

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

20-03-2010, 07:23 AM

-the equities olny p/c-ratio *0.51
-the %SPX 500 stocks above the 50-day MA *89 %

...the SPX 500 staled beneath the 17-month High set Wed *1170 this morning and plunged to intraday 12 March Congestion support *1157 before stabilizing temporarily so far; penetration of *1157 should trigger follow-through action down to March 3 Low *1117 pivot

...a successful *1117 defense would clear the extremely overbought condition and motivate the market to surge higher towards yearly trendline resistance current *1176 (+)

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

arco

20-03-2010, 10:13 AM

Action arrived at yellow box for circa 20 points which is equivalent to $5000 on one full contract, or $1000 profit on one e-mini contract

http://i43.tinypic.com/6fo28z.gif

ananda77

20-03-2010, 10:12 PM

...the SPX 500 penetrated support *1157 Intraday down to *1155 and closed at intraday Congestion *1160 - the SPX 500 Hedge shows a tentative top down to trendline support *1120 (daily)/*1130 (weekly):

http://i42.tinypic.com/vcuvc5.jpg...volume increase

http://i43.tinypic.com/30wugsg.jpg...institutional selling !caution!

http://i44.tinypic.com/2sb7j7m.jpg...NYSE algorithm rolling over

http://i44.tinypic.com/29dkahz.jpg...equity only p/c-ration 0.51

http://i43.tinypic.com/9zyagw.jpg...%SPX 500 stocks above 50-day MA = 89% Thursday

Kind Regards

ananda77

23-03-2010, 08:16 AM

Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 22 March 2010

http://i42.tinypic.com/14sldhi.jpg

www.invetrics.com:- data point 22 March 2010

http://i44.tinypic.com/ziuecy.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 22 March 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/2vwcp4o.jpg...testing primary support

Trader Update -data point 22 March 2010:

...the SPX 500 tested Break-Out support *1151 successfully establishing intraday Low *1153 as a near term floor; as a result, the index continues its bullish path and any bearish action needs to take out the *1153 on a Close basis

...the next bullish near term targets:

-intermediate trendline resistance *1177
-near term upper channel resistance in the current *1183/*1187 range
-longer term upper channel resistance current *1217/*1255

...institutional selling http://i42.tinypic.com/6e2ph5.jpg spiked Friday, the NYSE algorithm http://i39.tinypic.com/8y5k5x.jpg rolled; as a result -SELL-STOP PROTECTION and NO LONG POSITION as long as primary support in the institutional core index http://i43.tinypic.com/2vwcp4o.jpg remains unsupported...
...checking internals, as mentioned earlier, the number of new lows creeping up stealthily

*1117 remains the SPX 500 pivot point

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

24-03-2010, 07:43 AM

Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 23 March 2010

http://i42.tinypic.com/14sldhi.jpg

www.invetrics.com:- data point 23 March 2010

http://i44.tinypic.com/ziuecy.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 23 March 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding .http://i43.tinypic.com/2mzmd06.jpg..back at resistance line/testing primary support

Trader Update -data point 23 March 2010:

...the SPX 500 appears to consolidate between intraday Low *1164 and intraday High *1170 so far in balanced trading; the institutional index moved back to the primary resistance line, institutional selling http://i41.tinypic.com/1d9w5.jpg still quite elevated and the NYSE algorithm http://i39.tinypic.com/w0e50.jpg in positive territory but rolling over; the index appears to remain set on its bullish path, but the market could go for another test of *1153 support before the break-out, if successful

...the next bullish near term targets:

-intermediate trendline resistance *1177
-near term upper channel resistance in the current *1183/*1187 range
-longer term upper channel resistance current *1217/*1255

as a result -SELL-STOP PROTECTION and NO LONG POSITION as long as primary support in the institutional core index remains unsupported...

*1117 remains the SPX 500 pivot point

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

25-03-2010, 08:29 AM

Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 24 March 2010

http://i42.tinypic.com/14sldhi.jpg

www.invetrics.com:- data point 24 March 2010

http://i44.tinypic.com/2ll2dcp.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 24 March 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/2ivbuwj.jpg...above resistance line/testing primary support

Trader Update -data point 24 March 2010:

...the SPX 500 trades moderately lower from yesterday's 19-mth High *1175 and appears to form an inside day signalling trend uncertainty;

-institutions still testing their primary support on the Core Index
-institutional selling http://i44.tinypic.com/29ff34o.jpg...moderately lower but still within a selling trend most likely with an uptick after today
-NYSE algorithm http://i40.tinypic.com/bildhw.jpg...positive but rolling over
-market breadth 1:2 neg -new highs increasing -uptick buying power positive -buying the dips appears ongoing

...todays drive lower appears corrective with potential for another test of March 22 Low *1153 developing; if so, an expected successful defense of *1153 would set the index up for another advance towards the yearly trendline resistance current *1177/higher into the short term upper channel resistance current *1185;

...longer term bullish targets:

-longer term upper channel resistance current *1217/*1255

...in the near term, a possible trade would be into the direction of how today's inside day will be resolved; any trading action below yearly weekly channel support *1138 would be an invitation for the bears to party;

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

26-03-2010, 08:25 AM

www.invetrics.com:- data point 25 March 2010

http://i41.tinypic.com/24ood20.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 25 March 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i42.tinypic.com/34g3mvs.jpg...moving further above resistance line/testing primary support

Trader Update -data point 25 March 2010:

...yesterdays inside day resolved to the upside and the SPX 500 traded to a new 20-mth High *1181 into the current yearly trendline resistance (weekly) as expected; immediate selling into the new High neutralized some of todays gains, but as long as the index stays above March 22 Low *1153, the market will slowly grind the index higher into the short term upper channel resistance current *1193/higher into longer term upper channel resistance current *1217/*1255

-institutions still testing their primary support on the Core Index
-institutional selling http://i41.tinypic.com/25rzbyc.jpg...upticked yesterday and will likely to stay in the uptrend after today
-NYSE algorithm http://i42.tinypic.com/33nb602.jpg...positive and appears ready to signal another advance
-market breadth close to 2:1 positive -new highs increasing -uptick buying power positive -buying the dips appears ongoing

...any trading action below yearly weekly channel support *1138 would be an invitation for the bears to party;

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

27-03-2010, 05:36 AM

www.invetrics.com:- data point 26 March 2010

http://i40.tinypic.com/1qjxvl.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 26 March 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i40.tinypic.com/11s1ok8.jpg...moving below resistance line/testing primary support

Trader Update -data point 25 March 2010:

...yesterdays inside day resolved into an outside day after the index collapsed into the Close; the NYSE algorithm http://i44.tinypic.com/2ykdjtd.jpg is in positive territory moving down; 10-year treasury yield http://i43.tinypic.com/20kuknq.jpg spiked to 3.85% with further upside potential likely and while not at a critical level like above 4%, institutions becoming nervous holding stocks for dividend in a higher yield environment; institutional selling http://i42.tinypic.com/2e3n4p0.jpg remained in the uptrend with another uptick yesterday

...given the impulsive nature of yesterdays sell-off, a corrective drive down to short term lower support channel current *1153/lower to intermediate lower channel support current *1142 are likely before the market will slowly grind the index higher into the short term upper channel resistance current *1193/higher into longer term upper channel resistance current *1217/*1255

...looking further ahead, if the *1193/*1217/*1255 range coincides with 10-year treasury yields rising to 4% (+), the market will have most likley reached a top from which a deeper potential 20%/38% correction will look like a real deal

...in the meantime, any trading action below yearly weekly channel support *1138 would be an invitation for the bears to party earlier on

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

30-03-2010, 07:41 AM

...today, as far as markets are concerned, I am content to take the short risk... amidst bullish sentiment based on a lot of bull**** and grizzly bears turned into gummi bears, and I do agree with David Rosenberg at times like today:

Divid Rosenberg: Looking at the fund flows, there is only one conclusion that can be reached: This market is being driven by pig farmers (program trades. ed.). Retail inflows may have picked up of late, but only fractionally. The focus on the part of the individual investor remains on the fixed-income market, for better or for worse (better from our standpoint, worse from the standpoint of my friend and fellow debater Jim Grant).
Institutional portfolio manager cash ratios are back to the rock bottom levels of around 3½% — where they were back at the market peak in October 2007. The shorts have all but been covered. Foreign investors have been few and far between, based on the latest TICS data. The lack of volume speaks volumes — there are no sellers. Investors of all types have been content to just sit and watch their equity position expand via the price appreciation, but there is scant evidence of any follow-through this year in terms of volume buying.
So, that leaves me with a suspicion that the entities doing the buying are the pig farmers. Who are they pray tell? They are the prop desks at the five large banks. They buy and sell securities, with leverage ... to each other! And, these transactions often occur late in the day or in the futures pit after the market closes. There is no sign of any other buyer out there, including the Fed who has been too busy choking on mortgage backed securities and Maiden Lane assets. To repeat, that is why the volumes have been so low.

What we should be aware of about the pig farmers is that they could, at any time, flick the switch in the other direction. What the “trapped longs” may be forced to do — the ones that have been sitting on their hands and have been waiting for the bear market rally to take their portfolio back to where it was at the peaks — at that point is start to sell. That is when the volume picks up ... and accelerates the downside pressure.

Kind Regards

Hoop

30-03-2010, 10:10 AM

David Rosenburg is a super permabear. I can understand his frustration at the moment..we are a cyclic bull market and he is upset. The same happened in 2006 with him when economic theory did not match stockmarket behaviour...I thought he may have learn't something from that as he is a super intelligent guy and Chief economist and strategist but I guess a leopard (bear) can't change his spots...

Oh well... like they say ...Every dog (bear) has their day. Maybe it will be tomorrow;)

Phaedrus

30-03-2010, 10:59 AM

.Every dog (bear) has their day. Maybe it will be tomorrow....Permabears are bound to get it right, sooner or later - a bit like the stopped clock that shows the right time twice a day!

There are, of course, times when we all really should "beware the Bear". For me, it's when the plot is red. That way, I get to enjoy the good times!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP330.gif

Ketel One

30-03-2010, 03:01 PM

Thanks for the update- Good to see the MSI sitting solidly on 1! :)

ananda77

30-03-2010, 05:17 PM

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Treasu...&asset=&ccode=

C overhang ... I'm a little supprised that treasury doesn't hold for a bit longer -YEAH RIGHT...so to speak

...basically the question Rosenberg raises here is 'what factors will determine program trade to change course' and he thinks that

-10-year treasury yields above 4% takes the usual institutional buyers out of the equation
-institutional cash just above 3 % another reason institutions are unlikely buyers
-at some stage the program trade needs to off-load their accumulated expensive junk as volume margin discounts are a bit boring in the longer term
-furthermore 20 billion dollars of net speculative S&P large contracts showed up on last week's COT report (probably nothing to it and something to do with government selling 'C')??

...therefore on one hand the program trade needs sellers >>unlikely if they keep propping the market very low volume figures); on the other hand they need buyers and lots of them; so unless they somehow manage to convince JOE to enter the market -unlikley as JOE has stayed out all the up to here and most likely does not want to jump now- everyone should be happy if a nice correction takes us all into richer waters

...so basically, JOE is needed to finish the cyclical bull in classic 3-wave style -insiders -institutions -public but unless we have a decent enough correction down etc, etc, etc

Kind Regards

Shaneoz

30-03-2010, 10:37 PM

Hi Phaedrus,

Just a quick thought on your MSI. Have you done any research on the time that indicator stays at 100%? Looking at it, it looks like there is a reasonable pattern but it may just be an illusion. If you knew the indicator had a run of 100% for 72 days for instance and this was the longest it had run for, well any fractal points of that detail might make for points of interest in the future.

Cheers,

Shane.

ananda77

31-03-2010, 07:18 AM

www.invetrics.com:- data point 30 March 2010

http://i39.tinypic.com/2qwhjxt.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 30 March 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/azcvbq.jpg...closing below resistance line/testing primary support

Trader Update -data point 30 March 2010:

...the SPX 500 in consolidating mode below the March 25 20-month High *1181 and since the index has had plenty off opportunity to sell down to affirm the *1151/*1142 level and did not, chances are, the market will challenge the *11187/*11201 range leading into Fridays payroll anouncement

...if so, risk lingers for a 'good news' sell the fact Friday or sometime after due to short term extended index condition before resuming a bullish bias with the *1219/*1256 targets in view

-US 10-year T-note: http://i42.tinypic.com/jjwy7b.jpg
-Institutional selling: http://i44.tinypic.com/2j4ylac.jpg

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

Phaedrus

31-03-2010, 10:53 AM

Have you done any research on the time that the MSI stays at 100%? No Shane, I haven't. My reasoning is that I'm really not very interested in when, where or for how long the MSI sits at its maximum (or minimum) levels. To know that the market is strong (or weak) is enough for me - exactly how strong or weak is of minor interest, so long as the MSI is clearly positive (or negative). It is at times when the MSI looks to be on the verge of changing from bullish to bearish (or vice-versa) that it gets my full attention.

I have done a lot of backtesting though, on the basis of which I optimised the points at which light green and dark green cut in, raising them both by 0.1. You can see the slight difference between this MSI plot and the one on page 19 (#277). This very minor tweak improved the hit rate, reduced the number of "false positive" light green "buy" signals and increased overall returns. As you would expect, you get an even better hit rate and even fewer "false positives" by waiting for the dark green before "buying", but this improvement in accuracy comes at the cost of markedly lower overall returns.
You can't get something for nothing.

ananda77

01-04-2010, 07:13 AM

www.invetrics.com:- data point 31 March 2010

http://i39.tinypic.com/xljd5l.jpg(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 31 March 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/azcvbq.jpg...closing below resistance line/testing primary support

Trader Update -data point 31 March 2010:

...after the factory orders, the SPX 500 recoverd quickly from the early sell-off following the ADP report and appears back in consolidating mode below the March 25 20-month High *1181; chances are, the market will challenge the *11187/*11201 range late this week

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

06-04-2010, 08:11 AM

www.invetrics.com:- data point 5 April 2010

http://i42.tinypic.com/11h9w7n.jpg(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 5 April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i39.tinypic.com/33xhisi.jpg...closing below resistance line/testing primary support on Thursday

Trader Update -data point 5 April 2010:

...the SPX 500 leaving the March 25 High *1181 behind based on firm support and the index appears on its way for the *1200-test near term;

-institutional selling http://i39.tinypic.com/25i3ksj.jpg appears to fade away for now
-10 year treasury note just a tick belwo 4%
-equity only p/c ration a very low 0.54
-more than 91% SPX 500 stocks trade above the 50-day MA

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

Phaedrus

06-04-2010, 10:29 AM

Long Term: THE BEAR New 18 month high.......

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP50046.gif

Jay

06-04-2010, 01:20 PM

Appreciate the updates Phaedrus

ananda77

08-04-2010, 07:22 PM

Nie to see US action. Opened down and then simply climbed back into positive territory. Who'd want to be a shorter with the Bulls ruling?

Hi Belgarion...and just as you thought to be safe...have to say personally was not in the Phaedrus camp (just do not get it what's so funny about this indicator -any old lagger will do) since the Russell 2000 April 6 High *702.9 (701.5 exact), but its far too early to call in a trend reversal, rather -best guess and positioned accordingly-

-SPX 500 long in the *1149/1152 range or

-Russell 2000 short in the *712/*733 range

with anything in between uninterestingly nowhere

...since I have three serious comittments, its becoming very difficult to update in the morning without missing breakfast

Kind Regards

and Long Term: THE BEAR (regardless)

beacon

09-04-2010, 08:08 AM

...since I have three serious comittments, its becoming very difficult to update in the morning without missing breakfast

Appreciate your committment to sharing your thoughts as well as the effort you put in....

ananda77

09-04-2010, 10:51 AM

Thank You, Beacon

...the leading Russell 2000 index *701/*703 range offered a clear and low risk 'shorting opportunity' which is still in play; however, other major US indexes are still lagging behind and still have a way to trend up before their major potential turning point;
...watch out for the major indexes to arrive at their potentially major turning points IN SYNC

Kind Regards

ananda77

10-04-2010, 06:06 AM

www.invetrics.com:- data point 9 April 2010

http://i42.tinypic.com/142bjet.jpg(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 9 April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i39.tinypic.com/keg9l3.jpg...still testing primary support/hesitant for a decisive move

Trader Update -data point 9 April 2010:

...the SPX 500 established a new 18-month High *1192 with no follow through action at present; institutional selling http://i40.tinypic.com/m8z4f8.jpg ticking up slightly and market internals indicating a mixed market

... as a result there is risk for a shallow pullback to affirm the early August *1175/*1184 Congestion once more early next week before targeting higher into channel resistance ranging in the *1205/*1226/(ultimately *1266) area

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

12-04-2010, 06:08 PM

The Coming European Debt Wars
EU Countries sinking into Depression

by Prof. Michael Hudson http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=18545

VIDEO: William Engdahl: Covert Economic Warfare: "The Gods of Money"
US Will Not Recover for at Least 15 Years

by F. William Engdahl http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=18534

Kind Regards

ananda77

13-04-2010, 06:40 AM

www.invetrics.com:- data point 11 April 2010

http://i39.tinypic.com/2qbw5tu.jpg(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 11 April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i39.tinypic.com/2nsx9bt.jpg...trading above primary support line

Trader Update -data point 11 April 2010:

...the SPX 500 established a new 19-month High *1198 with low volume, unconvincing market internals and uninspiring lully as the market awaits the Alcoa result
...however, there is little reason to expect the market to stall just short of the *1200-mark and it is expected targeting higher into channel resistance ranging in the *1205/*1226/(ultimately *1266) area

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

14-04-2010, 07:10 AM

www.invetrics.com:- data point 13 April 2010

http://i44.tinypic.com/2vv3z81.jpg(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 13 April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/ampi6e.jpg...trading above primary support line nearing upper channel resistance

Trader Update -data point 13 April 2010:

...the SPX 500 tested trendline support at *1189 after yesterdays new 19-month High *1198; although the index moved up from support and institutions are accumulating http://i44.tinypic.com/v66lab.jpg these moves remain less than convincing at this stage with upper channel resistance on the Core Index overhead and market internals remaining unsupportive (A/D 1:14 negative for the last trading hour, volume trending down, new highs trending down)
...however, chances are for an 'against all odds' market to pass the *1200-mark and past *1200, it is expected targeting higher into channel resistance ranging in the *1205/*1226/(ultimately *1266) area -not for me though my friends as I am building protection for a fully invested portfolio-

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

15-04-2010, 07:15 PM

...for the fans of Fib-numbers
http://i41.tinypic.com/5f56k8.jpg the SPX 500 *1228 level represents the 61.8% retracement fom the March 2009 Low and this level may act as the starting point for an overdue correction
...however, would not be surprised one bit to see the index power higher into the current *1233/ultimate *1272 range by month end

Kind Regards

Phaedrus

15-04-2010, 07:29 PM

The SPX 500 *1228 level represents the 61.8% retracement fom the March 2009 Low and this level may act as the starting point for an overdue correction..... however, would not be surprised one bit to see the index power higher....That should just about cover it!!!

Tomorrow will be a fine day....if it doesn't rain!

ananda77

15-04-2010, 07:33 PM

That should just about cover it!!!

Tomorrow will be a fine day....if it doesn't rain!

...that's right Phaedrus and do not forget the umbrella even if it's a nice day...

Kind Regards

ananda77

16-04-2010, 06:25 AM

www.invetrics.com:- data point 15 April 2010

http://i41.tinypic.com/2z5u161.jpg(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 15 April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i40.tinypic.com/1z3yvbr.jpg...trading above primary support line and upper channel resistance

Trader Update -data point 15 April 2010:

...so far, the SPX 500 extended the rally to a new 19-month High *1214 today and continues to flatline; looking at institutional selling activity http://i44.tinypic.com/2edp1l3.jpg they are accumulating but at the same time, the sell level compared to the NYSE up-level is higher suggesting a selling into strength strategy; market breadth is mildly negative with NYSE uptick power virtually non-existent
-this deterioration in internals is a strong WARNING (not an indication of an imminent reversal) unless the index tracks down below *1207

-Tip of the Day: Cheap umbrellas are available for $5 at the South Auckland weekend markets-

...as a consequence, the index remains on track to potentially trade into the *1228/*1234/*1272 range towards the end of the month unless the April 14 Congestion *1207 eats dust near term

...any more serious corrective drive towards lower levels will be confirmed if the April 8 Low *1175 is penetrated ideally on a Close basis

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

Hoop

16-04-2010, 11:23 AM

........the SPX 500 *1228 level represents the 61.8% retracement fom the March 2009 Low and this level may act as the starting point for an overdue correction
...however, would not be surprised one bit to see the index power higher into the current *1233/ultimate *1272 range by month end

Kind Regards

Using TA Targeting the next Cyclic Bull Market correction due point is 1330.

Yes this is simple science but from history, cyclic bull market corrections tend to occur in an orderly fashion....occasionally one gets caught out... as what happened over the Xmas 2009 with the All Ords when a bull trap created a double dip correction but these are rare occurrences.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP50016042010.png

ananda77

16-04-2010, 04:42 PM

Hi Hoop,

...would you be happy with some juicy pullbacks along the way??

Kind Regards

Hoop

16-04-2010, 07:37 PM

ananda77

17-04-2010, 06:50 AM

...the SPX 500 stalled beneath April 15 High *1214 penetrated *1207 and subsequently plunged towards the March 25 High *1181/March 8 Low *1175 congestion before recovering; as long as the *1181/*1175 range remains supported, the index will continue its slow grind higher into the current *1228/*1232/*1272 range

...Penetration of the April 8 Low *1175 ideally on a Close basis should confirm that a deeper shakeout is getting underway

...bit of SPX 500 update history for week ending 18 April 2010:

-8 April 2010: ...since the Russell 2000 April 6 High *702.9 (701.5 exact), but its far too early to call in a trend reversal, rather -best guess and positioned accordingly-

-SPX 500 long in the *1149/1152 range or

-Russell 2000 short in the *712/*733 range

-14 April 2010: ...although the index moved up from support and institutions are accumulating these moves remain less than convincing at this stage with upper channel resistance on the Core Index overhead and market internals remaining unsupportive (A/D 1:14 negative for the last trading hour, volume trending down, new highs trending down)
-not for me though my friends as I am building protection for a fully invested portfolio-

-16 April 2010; ...as a consequence, the index remains on track to potentially trade into the *1228/*1234/*1272 range towards the end of the month unless the April 14 Congestion *1207 eats dust near term

Kind Regards

ananda77

20-04-2010, 05:00 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 19 April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/2mikbr.jpg...testing primary support in likely 'confirmation mode'

Trader Update -data point 19 April 2010:

...the SPX 500 holding above the *1175/*1181 Congestion support range and the market appears ready to start another (final) push up into the current *1228/*1232/*1272 range (possibly Hoop's *1330 level, although this level has not appeared on my screen just yet) with a potential large corrective drive (20 - 30%) that features the 200 MA *1075 as an initial target, opening at the rally topping range

...an early indication of the Apr 8 Low *1175 would signal that a shakeout is getting underway

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

21-04-2010, 07:37 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 20 April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i44.tinypic.com/2rr9wy9.jpg...testing primary support in likely 'confirmation mode'

Trader Update -data point 20 April 2010:

...as expected, the SPX 500 moved up decisively from the *1175/*1181 Congestion range and curently challenges the April 16 Break-Down point *1207

...above the *1207 barrier, the index will continue to slowly grind higher into the current *1213/*1225/ultimate *1278 range with a potential large corrective drive (20 - 30%) that features the 200 MA *1075 as an initial target, opening at the rally topping range

Caution: institutional selling http://i44.tinypic.com/jfep8h.jpg is trending at uncomfortably high levels

...an early indication of the Apr 8 Low *1175 would signal that a shakeout is getting underway

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

22-04-2010, 07:21 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 21 April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i42.tinypic.com/10r0l1w.jpg...testing primary support in likely 'confirmation mode'/closing slightly above support line but no clear committmen into either direction

Trader Update -data point 21 April 2010:

...with institutional selling http://i40.tinypic.com/10wmclw.jpg only slowly dissipating from uncomfortably high levels and market internals today with a slight bearish tinge, the SPX 500 so far, has been unable to take out the April 16 Break-Down point *1207 and appears to test the *1200 threshhold once more

...above the *1207 barrier, the index will continue to slowly grind higher into the current *1213/*1225/ultimate *1278 range with a potential large corrective drive (20 - 30%) that features the 200 MA *1075 as an initial target, opening at the rally topping range

...on the flipside, a break-down of the Apr 8 Low *1175 would signal that a shakeout is getting underway possibly to challenge the current *1156 level

[JP Morgan: bullish...but: “Although the SEC fraud case does not have direct implications outside Financials, the rise in uncertainty is negative for equities at a time when equity markets are overbought. Technicals have been pointing to overbought equity markets for some time now and Friday’s correction has the potential to drag the S&P 500 down toward 1175 in the near term. But our technical strategists see very little chance of the S&P 500 falling below 1150, i.e., the January high, over the coming weeks.” http://pragcap.com/jpm-correction-coming-but-will-be-short-lived]

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

23-04-2010, 08:09 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 22 April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/9sgfg9.jpg...testing primary support in likely 'confirmation mode'/closing slightly above support line but no clear committmen into either direction

Trader Update -data point 22 April 2010:

...the SPX 500 dived early into short term support to intraday Low *1190 before recovering; an expected Close above the April 16 Break-Down Point *1207 bodes well for further gains with the *1228/*1240 as a next potential target ahead

...as a consequence, any short term weakness trading above the *1175/*1190 range would present a accumulation opportunity

...institutional investors remain in low level accumulation with selling http://i43.tinypic.com/148p668.jpg trending uncomfortably high suggesting a continuous 'sell into strength' strategy

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

24-04-2010, 07:27 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 23 April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/dvopag.jpg...testing primary support in likely 'confirmation mode'/closing slightly above support line but no clear committmen into either direction

Trader Update -data point 23 April 2010:

...the SPX 500 appears ready for a Break-Out of the current April 19 Low *1214 and April 15 High *1184 range to tackle the next challenges ahead; the immediate view shows the *1224/*1228 level, with a medium term *1240 and ultimate *1279/*1302 to boot

...institutional investors remain in low level accumulation with selling http://i44.tinypic.com/r9rkue.jpg trending uncomfortably high suggesting a continuous 'sell into strength' strategy; market internals mixed >volume levels<

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

27-04-2010, 07:30 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 26 April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/2r3vyte.jpg ...testing primary support in likely 'confirmation mode'/closing slightly above support line but no clear committmen into either direction

Trader Update -data point 26 April 2010:

...maybe its the GS-farce, maybe its the SUPERBULLS waiting for the Wednesday-Word from Bernanke-Mommy which makes the SPX 500 stall at intraday *1219 after Friday's break-out of the the April 15 High *1214...

anyway, as long as *1214 holds as support, the index has further upside potential to tackle the next challenges ahead:
-the immediate view shows the *1224/*1228 level, with a medium term *1240 and ultimate *1279/*1302 to boot for later in 2010

...market internals mixed and unconvincing again today; institutional selling http://i41.tinypic.com/2k4gol.jpg appears to take a breather but could be up again today; the NYSE http://i44.tinypic.com/m8zo0i.jpg hitting hard against the upper level of an expanding wedge formation

...as a consequence: portfolio near 50% protection completed

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

27-04-2010, 05:32 PM

http://i41.tinypic.com/2z82b1j.png

THE WORLD OF HIGH FREQUENCY TRADING - SIX TRADING STARTEGIES

http://i42.tinypic.com/5x8yfa.jpg

...and

Computerized Front Running and Financial Fraud
How a Computer Program Designed to Save the Free Market Turned Into a Monster
by Ellen Brown http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=18809

Kind Regards

ananda77

28-04-2010, 06:48 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 27April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i42.tinypic.com/wgtcop.jpg ...testing primary support in likely 'confirmation mode'/closing slightly above support line but no clear committment into either direction

Trader Update -data point 27 April 2010:

...so the Greeks buried their national debt in hocus-pocus derivative contracts to remain a EU-member and they will not be the only ones who have been found out...

...yesterday, the SPX pulled back from its April 26 High *1219, closed below the April 15 High *1214 and subsequently reversed into negative weekly territory so far; further more, on its way down, the index severed trendline support *1199 and would produce a second negative weekly Close below *1187; but

...as long as the index manages trading above *1183, further upside potential still remain in play to tackle the next challenges ahead:
-the immediate view shows the *1224/*1228 level, with a medium term *1240 and ultimate *1279/*1302 to boot for later in 2010; however, a Close below the March 25 High *1180 or its confirmation point, the April 19 Low *1183 is needed for a high probability reversal

...as expexted, institutional selling http://i43.tinypic.com/voxte1.jpg ticked up and risk is for the up-trend to resume
the NYSE http://i39.tinypic.com/wc1pmt.jpg hitting hard against the upper level of an expanding wedge formation
the VIX http://i41.tinypic.com/vzke83.jpg also in an expanding wedge formation expected to conclude anytime before May 17

...as a consequence, portfolio protection increase to 75% from 50% completed

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

28-04-2010, 09:24 AM

Once again the markets take a dive based on Greek and Portugese debt woes. Once again I get the feeling its an over reaction driven by big players talking up the risks and/or a ploy by the euro zone to pull down the currency. Big forces at work here. Two options: bail and go with the flow or sit tight and buy more at the reversal. Currently the former has more appeal.

Belgarion: NEWS DO NOT MAKE MARKETS - MARKETS MAKE NEWS

...equity markets are extremely overextended and trading close to top of their longer term channels, so it is only to be expected that some sort of pull-back will take place

...the SPX 500 closed above pivotal *1183; either the *1183 goes on a Close basis or a recovery to new Highs will take hold from here in which case you need to wait for a bearish reversal at a higher level -the internals WILL tell the story...anyway...

-anything in between here and somewhere up higher is HIGH RISK or in other words 'INTERESTINGLY NOWHERE'

>belgarion, what I am saying here is that, you need to rely on a 'trading system' which has a high probability to get you out near a top, since risk levels for a decision now or at the SPX 500 level *1220 are comparably the same...(actually, as far as I am concerned, making a decision now carries a LOT MORE RISK than earlier)

...LAGGING TRADING SYSTEMS = WASTE OF TIME (in terms of risk levels, because there is NO SUCH THING AS A SURE THING)

Kind Regards

beacon

28-04-2010, 10:39 AM

NEWS DO NOT MAKE MARKETS - MARKETS MAKE NEWS

Well said. Today will be interesting. Agree with belg re overreaction, but also with ananda that currently the risk is high ... until the german election anyway. Expecting 21000 breached in HK, and 5200 in India, so that will put further pressure on World markets ...

winner69

28-04-2010, 11:43 AM

ananda77

28-04-2010, 08:21 PM

You know that Greece is going to end up in tears when the Greeks themselves are taking money out govt guaranteed deposits and moving them to other parts of the world

Even the locals that know that band aids won't fix the bleeding and the inevitable collapse .... wow default by one Euro country will lead to ........

...the world witnesses an unprecedented, ongoing case of governments printing money (and the ECB is no exeption) until the inevitable collapse of the whole current financial, economic, and social system; therefore, if anyone holds CASH will get poorer over time; equity markets will correct but the bull market will keep going for another two to three years, an estimate based on the continuous narrowing of the timespan between recent recessions

...therefore would not be too worried to have missed a few downticks in the market...

Kind Regards

ananda77

29-04-2010, 06:46 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 28April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i39.tinypic.com/30ca7py.jpg...testing primary support in likely 'confirmation mode'/closing well below support; institutions are now likely committed to confirm the break-down by challenging the support line in what could potentially be the final thrust before a deeper correction takes place

Trader Update -data point 28 April 2010:

...todays market internals actually support and signal a cautious attempt of a recovery from around the intraday channel floor in the *1183 range which appears to be the start of a 'Game On' challenge to tackle the next challenges ahead:
-the immediate view shows the *1224/*1228 level, with a medium term *1240 and ultimate *1279/*1302 to boot for later in 2010

...it pays to keep in mind:

-yesterday's sell-off has done very little to clear the extreme over-extended market conditions in the longer-term time frames

-institutions, the drivers of this bull market, have been selling into strength during April (institutional selling http://i41.tinypic.com/efkw0i.jpg surged and resumed its uptrend) but are still overall more bullish than the broader market and need a couple of days to finally make up their minds

-one swallow does not make a summer

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

30-04-2010, 05:30 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 29April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/m8kwh1.jpg..testing primary support in likely 'confirmation mode'/closing below primary support; institutions are now likely committed to confirm the break-down by challenging the support line in what could potentially be the final thrust before a deeper correction takes place

Trader Update -data point 29April 2010:

…todays zappy off the March April 19 Low *1183 strengthens the view that the SPX 500 index is ready to challenge the *1222/*1228 level, with potential to reach out into the current medium term *1244 -(and ultimate *1279/*1302 for later in 2010) target zone

...institutional selling http://i41.tinypic.com/b7lz4m.jpg receding going into light accumulation (chart not shown) with NYSE uptick buying power and New Highs subdued

50% portfolio protection active; increasing to 75% into intermediate SPX 500 target *1230 (+) zone

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

01-05-2010, 07:02 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 30April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/2cdbh4i.jpg ...testing primary support in likely 'confirmation mode'/moved up and still closing below primary support;

Trader Update -data point 30April 2010:

...the SPX 500 in No-Mans-Land with deteriorating internals warning of substantial profit takung and further downside but the index still in weekly positive territory so far making this drive down corrective

...a close above the April 28 High *1195 would induce confidence into the market that the Index still follows the *1224/*1228/*1244 game plan

...on th flip side, falling below the April 27 Low *1182 could be the start to take the April 8 Low *1175 out signalling a deeper correction is already taking hold

!!!Beware of a distorted Friday Close with a corrective rebound on a Monday if the world is still turning!!! -No-Mans-Land Territoty

...institutional selling http://i44.tinypic.com/2zp8rh3.jpg receding going into light accumulation (chart not shown) within an up-trend still in play

50% portfolio protection active; increasing to 75% into intermediate SPX 500 target *1230 (+) zone

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

04-05-2010, 07:00 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 3 May 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i42.tinypic.com/27zktn9.jpg ...testing primary support in likely 'confirmation mode'/closing below primary support and testing short term support line

Trader Update -data point 3 May 2010:

...the SPX 500 in moderate rebound mode to a intraday High *1205 so far, up from April 30 Low *1186 that leaves the April 27 Low *1182 in place for now; currently, the index stalls at the broken trendline support *1205

-its all sweet, was it not for the anaemic NYSE uptick buying power which categorizes this rebound as tentative and
-furthermore, the fact that a pre-mature return to bullishness will leave all the major indexes in their over-extended state, hardly a convincing argument for MR JOE to buy into the market now
-as a result, this market still remains without the third major player, while institutions are battleing it out on extremely low CASH-reserves

...back to price, action above trendline support *1205 on a Close basis would induce confidence into the market that the Index still follows the *1224/*1228/*1244 game plan and

...on the flip side, falling below the April 27 Low *1182 could be the start to take the April 8 Low *1175 out signalling a deeper correction is already taking hold

...institutional selling http://i44.tinypic.com/1115t36.jpg higher going into light distribution (chart not shown)

50% portfolio protection active; increasing to 75% into intermediate SPX 500 target *1230 (+) zone

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

05-05-2010, 06:59 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 4 May 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i41.tinypic.com/28jd6a.jpg...testing primary support in likely 'confirmation mode'/closing below primary support testing short term support line

Trader Update -data point 4 May 2010:

...the overextended SPX 500 plunged below April 8 Low *1175 but appears to be stabilizing just above key support range featuring the March 31 Low *1166, channel point *1164 and the March 26 Low *1161 ...all nicely garnished with Doom and Gloom newspaper writing...

...short term upward moves are likely to be limited in the trendline congestion range *1191/*1200 with additional tests of the key support likely until Fridays European bailout vote.

...the market will confirm the plunge with additional downside featuring the lower channel support current *1124 initially if key support eats dirt

...on the flipside, a successful defense of key support will set the index action up to pursue the *1224/*1228/*1244 targets

...institutional selling http://i39.tinypic.com/20aw9w1.jpg receded within continuous up-trend, going into light accumulation (chart not shown)

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

beacon

05-05-2010, 11:57 AM

Aussies are crazy as ever. While Rudd seems to still have some sense of timing (with his mining tax), Glen seems to have lost the plot altogether. Hope RBNZ is more circumspect, while National seems not wanting to learn anything from the Aussies (funny how they keep talking about catchup, yet seem hellbent on doing the opposite by squeezing the property market) ...

Crunch week or two for european markets ...

Hoop

05-05-2010, 02:39 PM

Hi Hoop,

...would you be happy with some juicy pullbacks along the way??

Kind Regards

Yeah why not:) ... a bit in it for everybody ..keeps everyone happy then doesn't it?

A pull back to test the 1150 support juicy enough for the bear investors Ananda ?

Those posts were on the 16 April 2010

Big day loss followed by big day gain and today the
Teddy bear picnic is back on again ... close at 1174 down -29.
Everything seems to going according to plan ...a bit for everybody. :)
I have posted warning flags before this mining tax announcement for the ASX

arco

05-05-2010, 02:45 PM

Just a reminder to all that the indices are free for all to view over on the blog. No membership required.

We managed to nail the DJIA/YM over the last few days. Very good move from this trade with a maximum move of 340 points which equates to up to maximum of $US1700 on one mini contract. The DJIA full contract is $10 per index point - so up to $3400 on a full size contract

CHART RESULT

http://i43.tinypic.com/av1njo.gif

CHART POSTED 29/4

http://i42.tinypic.com/ji259x.gif

ananda77

06-05-2010, 07:23 AM

Trader Update -data point 5 May 2010:

the SPX 500 penetrated the key support range featuring the March 31 Low *1166, channel point *1164 and the March 26 Low *1161 intraday down to *1158 and as a result, substantial risk to further downside remains

...however, closing above *1158 today would indicate possible sideways action until Fridays European bailout vote; in the meantime, upside price action will most likley be capped in the *1179/*1181 range as longer term overextension is now just starting to adjust

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

07-05-2010, 07:38 AM

...the SPX 500 closed in on the Feb 11 2010 Low *1060 today and found explosive support intraday at *1064

...as outlined on May 4, ...the market will confirm the plunge with additional downside featuring the lower channel support current *1124 initially if key support eats dirt...the market currently attempts to stabilize trading in that range

...looking ahead, substantial downside risk remains for the index closing below the yearly lower channel support current *1112 with todays support point *1064 initially and *1029 further down the next logical targets in the 2-yearly channel set-up, if the index remains unsupported at the yearly lower channel

50% portfolio protection active since April 29

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

peat

07-05-2010, 07:57 AM

call out the Plunge Protection Team

arco

07-05-2010, 10:08 AM

Was that caused by fat finger again?

Present rumour is that a major US bank had an order to sell $15 million of S&P e-mini (YM) contracts but accidentally sold $15 billion.

peat

07-05-2010, 10:17 AM

yes I see that on your blog Arco
CNN are saying an large error in a quote for Proctor and Gamble which would have caused the Dow30 to move 175 pts.

could be someone testing liquidity a bit

maybe the elephant sleeping in the corner just woke up.

Hoop

07-05-2010, 12:14 PM

Was that caused by fat finger again?

Present rumour is that a major US bank had an order to sell $15 million of S&P e-mini (YM) contracts but accidentally sold $15 billion.

Yeah ..looking at Citi although the Stock exchange said nothing wrong with the system...just a lack of safeguards as a deathspiral took hold with the stops being triggered all at once.
Also of concern and investigators are looking into this was a huge liquidity spike half an hour before in the Euro:yen forex, it showed up on the charts. There no surprise that big investors are taking advantage of the Euro currency trading conditions but something strange happened which seemed to triggered the miniEs futures response a bit later.

Hell...they reckon that a week in politics is a lifetime...Geez ..for a day trader a millisecond seemed like a lifetime today.

Strange how only some areas flew the yellow flag and slowed the trading down from milliseconds to 30-60 seconds so manual checks could be done first.

Overall what a mess..now they thinking of busting trades that were severely fat fingered (sold at $zero)...that will be even more messy if not impossible.

Edit Rewritten Overall for the TA chartist..... todays events are real and will be added in at actual history.... Interestingly (spooky) and which could be seen as encouraging was that the dip found, tested and respected the Primary Support zone for the cyclic bull market scenario..ignoring it as a technical error(which it may have been) would be a risk to the TA discipline.

Interested to hear from other chartists how they are going to handle this dip aberration.

evilroyrule

07-05-2010, 12:24 PM

thanks hoop. that makes for interesting reading. appreciate your time.

Hoop

07-05-2010, 12:36 PM

thanks hoop. that makes for interesting reading. appreciate your time.
Evil ca you re-read my post ...my original had a serious error

evilroyrule

07-05-2010, 12:44 PM

come on hoopy. you knw me. im bullish no matter what the weather.

peat

07-05-2010, 01:12 PM

Interested to hear from other chartists how they are going to handle this dip aberration.
Its in the chart as far as I'm concerned
some times my charts have true erroneous data which causes spike and throws out the studies but this isnt one of those.

Hoop

07-05-2010, 02:28 PM

come on hoopy. you knw me. im bullish no matter what the weather.
Good on ya Evil...thats the spirit :t_up:

Its in the chart as far as I'm concerned
some times my charts have true erroneous data which causes spike and throws out the studies but this isnt one of those.

Yes agree Peat I won't be ignoring it yet. Also I suspect the computerised TA indicators will have it factored in on the charts

ananda77

07-05-2010, 06:43 PM

...once the *1060 range went and the index violated the 3-month lower channel support *1053, stop-loss triggers accelerated the sell-off and HFT did the rest; agree with Hoop that price action explosively bouncing back just off the February 2010 Low bodes well for a slow summer rally grinding up its way towards the *1220 level

...in the meantime however, price action to *1066 yesterday needs confirmation and it is likely at this stage that the market would want to confirm *1066 as floor anywhere in the February 25 price range *1085/*1097

Kind Regards

ananda77

08-05-2010, 04:54 AM

...as outlined earlier, the SPX 500 traded lower into the February 25 range to intraday Low *1094 and returned into positive daily territory for now; weekend trading may cause the index to close on the weak side today, but price action bodes well for further upticks with the 50-day MA *1163 as target within the coming weeks

...funnily enough, the technical set-up still remains extended and signals a possible failure in the 50-day MA range that would motivate the market to initiate another *1066 challenge with the February 25 range as an early support zone

...if successfully defended, the following summer rally would target *1220 which would pose a formidable barrier for further gains and potentially be a market top for this current rally already in place

...on the flipside, trading below the February 25 support zone signals weakness and further downside

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77

08-05-2010, 01:08 PM

Pretty good volume today and better than the previous 4 days. Good sign?

...technically the market appears to build base above the February 25 Low but could range trade for a while till the overextension is worked off

...on the flipside, trading below the February 25 support zone signals weakness and further downside ...honestly, always wonder why there is so much emphasis on fundamentals currently

-stuffed and NOT GETTING ANY BETTER-

Special – Market Plunge Examined
http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2010/05/07/special-market-plunge-examined/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+thedisciplinedinvestor%2FEBHR +%28The+Disciplined+Investor%29

Long Term: http://i44.tinypic.com/t0mhjs.jpg

Kind Regards

arco

11-05-2010, 10:57 AM

Interested to hear from other chartists how they are going to handle this dip aberration.

Hoop. I'll be treating it as it is, and working with its parameters.

Alert for this short given free on the blog 25/3.

http://www.lincolnfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/20100508-ym.gif

The Euro spike was also no real surprise - potential move alerted on 26/3

http://www.lincolnfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/Euro-26-March1.jpg

.

ananda77

11-05-2010, 06:06 PM

ECB's Shock and Awe policy did the trick. No buys filled. Back to normal. Move along folks, nothing to see here. :D

Belgarion - the ONLY truly undestructable, unbeatable bull

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 10 May 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i42.tinypic.com/34oxcub.jpg...trading below secondary support -caution-

Trader Update -data point 10 May 2010:

...trading set-up signals a short term overbought but long term still extended market only slightly dented by last weeks price action

outlook:

-favorable risk/reward -long position- above Close *1162
-initial minor target *1203 for re-valuation
-end of summer target *1220/*1243/*1250 topping range past Close current *1199/*1203 trendline
-potential yearly target *1284 (+)

Long Term: http://i44.tinypic.com/t0mhjs.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

12-05-2010, 04:51 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 11 May 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding .http://i44.tinypic.com/1z63z9f.jpg..closing above secondary support ideally need confirmation before a challenge of primary support line

Trader Update -data point 11 May 2010:

...the SPX 500 so far traded to intraday *1166 above Mondays High *1164 supported by rather cautious internals

...braking above *1164 would motivate the market to try the April 28 Low *1182 as the next logical upside target on its way to a challenge of the Apr 29 High *1209

...looking ahead, the SPX 500 http://i40.tinypic.com/dm79td.jpg appears to be set in a large wedge between *1209/*1100 potentially the summer trading algo

...institutional selling http://i44.tinypic.com/2n8zz0h.jpg ...technically still in uptrend but in early reversal mode

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

peat

12-05-2010, 10:35 AM

the bounce is pretty weak. weaker than even I thought it would be. I was thinking it might get up back close to 1200.

ananda77

12-05-2010, 11:23 AM

the bounce is pretty weak. weaker than even I thought it would be. I was thinking it might get up back close to 1200.

agree, peat; todays Close under *1162/*1164 comes with mixed to weak internals and a market with hardly any jolt; likely that institutions either want to confirm secondary support on the Core Index or want another leg down to the *1100 area before they are comfortable for further upside

...anyway, the volatility is nice but rather get out near the days Highs rather then just leave it for tomorrow

Kind Regards

arco

12-05-2010, 02:21 PM

.
Lull before the storm

peat

12-05-2010, 04:12 PM

well i cant imagine its blowing a northerly arco

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2010-05-11-1814-Technical_Implications_from_Last_Week_s.html

ananda77

12-05-2010, 05:23 PM

.
Lull before the storm

well i cant imagine its blowing a northerly arco

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2010-05-11-1814-Technical_Implications_from_Last_Week_s.html

...nice opposing ends of the spectrum -good for high volatility- (not that I think a few miserable dollars from my end will contribute);

...intrday the market did try a break-out at *1164 towards the end of the trading day and was sold off; if it happens again today, chances are the second attempt will succeed -minimum requirement for a second attempt is a market holding above March 11 Low *1138

ergo: between *1138 and *1164 the market is in Nowhere Land for a longer term decision but a nice set-up for a potential range trade based in the 1hr time frame

my 5 cents worth with Kind Regards

ananda77

13-05-2010, 05:43 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 12 May 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i39.tinypic.com/1z739qb.jpg closing above secondary support ideally need confirmation before a challenge of primary support line

Trader Update -data point 12 May 2010:

...the SPX 500 so far trading higher inch by inch struggling for momentum and although internals paint a bullish picture the colours are tainted by an anaemic number of New Highs
neverthe less, the index trades above *1164 and there is still potential for a brief run-up to the April 28 Low *1182
however, further upside to a challenge of the Apr 29 High *1209 seems unlikely at this stage without a corrective shake-out to affirm the May 10 Low *1122 as a base for building more bullish bias

..looking ahead, the SPX 500 appears to be set in a large wedge between *1209 and *1100 potentially the summer trading algo

...institutional selling http://i44.tinypic.com/s1mbth.jpg technically still in uptrend but in early reversal mode

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

beacon

13-05-2010, 10:50 AM

1222 more likely now than 1122. Euro scenario bears likely to be trapped if they linger around. IMO we'll see 1300 this year, and probably sooner than many expect ...

ananda77

14-05-2010, 06:05 AM

1222 more likely now than 1122. Euro scenario bears likely to be trapped if they linger around. IMO we'll see 1300 this year, and probably sooner than many expect ...

Hi Beacon, agree with the year target (as long as the money printers keep their work ethics up) but wouldn't it be choclate to add at *1122 (stop *1090)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 13 May 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/zixhz6.jpg closing above secondary support ideally need confirmation for a stronger challenge of primary support line

Trader Update -data point 13 May 2010:

...the SPX 500 so far treadmilling with momentum on the wane; internals rather neutral with bearish tweeks
on a positive note, still trading above *1164 so there is still potential for a brief run-up to the April 28 Low *1182
however, further upside to a challenge of the Apr 29 High *1209 seems unlikely at this stage without a corrective shake-out to affirm the May 10 Low *1122 as a base for building more bullish bias into a summer rally

..looking ahead, the SPX 500 appears to be set in a large wedge between *1209 and *1100 potentially the summer trading algo

...institutional selling http://i40.tinypic.com/xdxdlc.jpg early accumulation -not trending-

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

beacon

14-05-2010, 04:00 PM

chocolate is not good for health, and it is a slippery slope unless stemmed now. I thought you were happy with Hoop's 1150...
Staying away from choc desires personally, but wish you well. The market seems obliging, you might just get your wish...

ananda77

15-05-2010, 06:33 AM

[QUOTE=beacon;304683]chocolate is not good for healthQUOTE]

...I know Beacon and I stay away from it apart from using it a a figure of speech (hopefully that sounds like something)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 13 May 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i40.tinypic.com/xo3zaq.jpg closing above secondary support ideally need confirmation for a stronger challenge of primary support line

Trader Update -data point 14 May 2010:

...as expected, the SPX 500 plunged lower to intraday *1126 just above the May 10 Low *1122 amidst super bearish internals so far but trading markedly slowed and the index appears to be stabilizing

...if *1122 remains supported, trading needs to re-enter the May 7 High *1137/May 12 Low *1143 on a Close basis for confirmation of *1122 as floor and the base for a slow grind higher during summer into the year target zone *1300

...this bullish scenario crumbles on a sustained penetration of the *1090 level (-stop-)

...institutional selling http://i42.tinypic.com/2d98qs0.jpg early accumulation -not trending-

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

beacon

17-05-2010, 09:50 PM

hi Ananda77 - I was reciprocating figuratively too. hope you got your fill ... now will you please let the northward journey begin. I am beginning to suffer ...

ananda77

18-05-2010, 06:01 AM

please let the northward journey begin. I am beginning to suffer ...

Hi Beacon,

I would, if I could, but be assured my scribbles do not make a dot of difference to the markets (if that's what you meant)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 17 May 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i44.tinypic.com/saxr88.jpg in confirmation mode -secondary support-

Trader Update -data point 17 May 2010:

...towards the end of Fridays trading, the NYSE Trin showed 3.06/3.03 which in the past have indicated exhaustion points

...although the SPX 500 index so far again traded down to intraday *1115, the March 4 Low just ticks below the longer term channel support, into an area that also features the 200-day MA support *1101, support holding in this range looks likely

...if so, trading needs to re-enter the May 7 High *1137/May 12 Low *1143 on a Close basis for confirmation of the *1101/*1115 as floor and the base for a slow grind higher during summer into the year target zone *1300

...this bullish scenario crumbles on a sustained penetration of the *1090 level (-stop-)

...institutional selling http://i41.tinypic.com/4zw1oz.jpg selling receding only slowly and institutions are still accumulating weakly if at all

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

19-05-2010, 05:54 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 18 May 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i45.tinypic.com/33vmcs6.jpg in confirmation mode -secondary support-

Trader Update -data point 18 May 2010:

...the SPX 500 index opened higher to intraday *1149 but could not hold on to gains so far

...as a result, risks remain for the index to trade back into the March 4 Low *1115/200-day MA *1101 support zone for re-confirmation but based on improving internals, it is expected, that this zone is likely to remain supported

...if so, trading needs to re-enter the May 7 High *1137/May 12 Low *1143 on a Close basis for confirmation of the *1101/*1115 zone as floor and the base for a slow grind higher during summer into the year target zone *1300

...this bullish scenario crumbles on a sustained penetration of the *1090 level (-stop-)

...institutional selling http://i45.tinypic.com/124wsnt.jpg selling receding only slowly, -sideways action-

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

peat

19-05-2010, 07:46 AM

all ths signs added up last night on the hourly , the harami,the bounce off the top of the cloud and the 200ma , bearish engulfing, the macd crossover, the rsi turning down and crossing through the 75 line.

the volatility is a bit scary though.

peat

19-05-2010, 09:32 PM

MACD doing a hook on the hourly??
these are big black candles!

ananda77

20-05-2010, 07:41 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 19May 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i46.tinypic.com/10xvshw.jpg in confirmation mode -below secondary support-

Trader Update -data point 19 May 2010:

...the SPX 500 index traded below the May 17 Low *1115 easily, took out the May 10 Open *1110 as well and dived straight down to the 200-day MA current *1101
checking market internals, support became apparent in the 200-day MA support zone as indicated by NYSE up-tick buying power and the index seems to be stabilizing between *1110 and *1101

...however, risks remain for the index to trade lower to the next down target the May 7 Low *1094 (+) as long as the institutional Core index remains below the secondary support zone on a confirmed basis

...assuming that the *1094/*1101 zone remains supported, trading needs to re-enter the May 7 High *1137/May 12 Low *1143 on a Close basis for confirmation of the support range as floor and the base for a slow grind higher during summer into the year target zone *1300

...this bullish scenario crumbles on a sustained penetration of the *1090 level (-stop-)

...institutional selling http://i49.tinypic.com/2ujplko.jpg with an uptick, still in technical uptrend

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

Dr_Who

20-05-2010, 10:10 AM

What is the PE ration for the S&P and DOW?

Anyone know where I can find that out?

Phaedrus

20-05-2010, 10:33 AM

Dow 15.6 :- http://www.djaverages.com/?view=investor-tools&page=quote

SP500 20.22 :- http://www.multpl.com/

Phaedrus

20-05-2010, 11:33 AM

Seems like a safe place to come back in with a few strategic buys.You reckon?
Belg, far from being "a safe place to come back in", buying when the market is weak (red) is in fact a very RISKY time to buy. We have no way of knowing how far the fall will take us. There were contrarians with that sort of "permabull" attitude buying at the blue arrow - and all the way down as the slide continued. Mugs!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP500520.gif

beacon

20-05-2010, 12:11 PM

PE today SPX 500 = 16.18, source Bloomberg.

beacon

20-05-2010, 12:33 PM

Any global i-rate rises will be put on hold for bit methinks. All in all ... probably time to spend the cash

Second that. Appears like the northward journey resumes today. About time too ...

ananda77

20-05-2010, 02:47 PM

All in all ... probably time to spend the cash the stops created :)

Second that. Appears like the northward journey resumes today. About time too ...

...agree, buying support on the NYSE was actually quite strong today most likely lifting the Institutional Core Index above secondary support again; a long trade on the SPX 500 with a stop *1090 -way to go- oils
...close above 70 also affirms potential for a bullish outlook but:

a trillion EURO pobably not good enough to solve the debt issues in the Eurozone (and elsewhere) for long and necessary USD/EURO swaps put USD upside pressure into the equation which is deflationary; I do not think that interest rates are going to be a problem in a deflationary or inflationary environment >they are going to stay at zero no matter forever and a day

Kind Regards

ananda77

20-05-2010, 03:02 PM

The debt to GDP ratios I keep hearing about want to make me puke. No body seems to publish the ratios factoring in global growth, and more specifically, growth amongst the PIIGS. Throwing up scary numbers looking at a single point is time (following the worst recession in living memory) is scare tactics by the media, and I'm pretty sure, amply supported by big instos.

Hi Belgarion,

...not saying too much Cash is being printed, actually -ITS NOT ENOUGH- and CB's should not be so wishy washy about it, the currency swaps are the problem however

Kind Regards

ananda77

20-05-2010, 04:49 PM

You reckon?
Belg, far from being "a safe place to come back in", buying when the market is weak (red) is in fact a very RISKY time to buy

Phaedrus:

...in terms of RISK, the best possible risk/reward ratio of a long position in the short- or long term was at SPX 500 *1101 (the 200-day MA) because 'the long position/stop (1090) spread' was at a minimum with upside potential at a maximum and internals indicating a bullish trin

...in reality and with no hindsight in sight, am in the money already with no way to loose on the position, while you are still whatever...

Kind Regards

Phaedrus

20-05-2010, 08:41 PM

ananda77

21-05-2010, 12:18 AM

A77. for over a year you've been warning "Beware the Bear" - all the way up this magnificent recovery. Right now, with the Index showing clear signs of technical weakness, I too am advocating caution. For the moment at least, we agree!

...as you can see http://i49.tinypic.com/2dhy1xc.jpg -Beware the Bear- paid handsomely since SPX 500 *1210 (April 29) but still think, its a Baby Bear rather than Mama or Papa Bear for now (SPX 500 futures *1094, Dow bounced just ahead of the 200-day MA *10243)

...unless the market recovers to above *1101 on a Close basis and sacks below *1090, afraid http://i47.tinypic.com/mbo4zd.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

21-05-2010, 05:25 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 20 May 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i46.tinypic.com/1268x9t.jpg remains -below secondary support-

Trader Update -data point 20 May 2010:

...the SPX 500 bullish scenario crumbled on a sustained penetration of the *1090 level and the index is headed lower to near term targets featuring the May 6 2010 Low *1063 and the February 11 2010 Low *1060

...a successful defense in this range will set the index up for a medium term advance to retest the April 28 2010 High *1220 towards the end of summer

...on the flipside, penetration of the *1060 pivot area on a Close basis will increase risks to the downside with the 2-year lower channel support *1047 and the October 2009 Low *1020 coming into view

...institutional selling http://i47.tinypic.com/2hexzch.jpg remains in technical uptrend

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

peat

21-05-2010, 08:09 AM

I'm adding shorts at these levels.... I had orders in y'day at 1107.5
3 months ago and a fair amount of pain along the way but the bearish strategy is now paying off as I never lost my gumption....

that said from a risk reward ratio going long now (1070 ish) with stop set if it closes below the May 6th low of 1063 would be a reasonable approach (but not what I'm doing)

a 45 point down day on the S+P!

peat

21-05-2010, 09:59 AM

All the stocks in the Dow Industrials closed the day lower. All the stocks in the Dow Transportation Average closed the day down. All the stocks in the Dow Jones Utilities Average closed the day in negative territory. And of the 500 stocks that comprise the S&P 500, 497 of them closed the day down.

winner69

21-05-2010, 10:31 AM

Meanwhile back in the fundie (aka real) world ...

Fed officials say in an updated forecast that they think the economy can grow between 3.2 percent and 3.7 percent this year. That's an upward revision from a growth range of 2.8 percent to 3.5 percent in their January forecast.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Federal-Reserve-sees-slightly-apf-3383840933.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

By quoting this are you saying that this is good news for the US markets?

Belg ... you should know better than most that US markets are not highly correlated to economic growth

Liek during the big bear from 1966 to 1982 when the DOW went nowhere (actually down 0.8%pa) the US economy grew by 10%pa

History shows that the US economy grows faster during bear markets than it does during bull markets

its all about market valuations eh Belg

winner69

21-05-2010, 10:35 AM

PE today SPX 500 = 16.18, source Bloomberg.

Far too high eh Beacon

Needs to fall below 10 before we can be sure this secular bear market is over

beacon

21-05-2010, 06:39 PM

Far too high eh Beacon

Needs to fall below 10 before we can be sure this secular bear market is over

Really? According To Robert Shiller's data (Phaedrus reference earlier, I think) PE has averaged at 16.4 since 1881. The fall is overdone ...

beacon

21-05-2010, 07:33 PM

Profits for S&P 500 companies are forecast to increase 17 percent this year, pushing the index’s price to 13.2 times annual income, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

PE for SPX 500 21 May 2010 = 15.55

winner69

21-05-2010, 07:33 PM

Really? According To Robert Shiller's data (Phaedrus reference earlier, I think) PE has averaged at 16.4 since 1881. The fall is overdone ...

Yep ... the average is about that but averages are funny things ... things like the S&P don't hang around the average for long periods of time.

have a look at the chart below and note that bear markets only end when the PE goes below 10 and in this secular bear market currently being experienced in the US we haven't got anywhere near there yet .... hence my remark earlier.

Mid 60's to early 80's was the last bif secular bear .... followed by the secular bull through to 2000 .... and the current secular bear. Maybe 2015 will be a good time to be in US stocks ... in the meantime stock selection is paramount and doing everything you can to protect capital

Chart taken from a very good piece that is regularly updated from Crestmont Research
http://www.crestmontresearch.com/pdfs/Stock%20PE%20Report.pdf

beacon

21-05-2010, 07:41 PM

Chart taken from a very good piece that is regularly updated from Crestmont Research
http://www.crestmontresearch.com/pdfs/Stock%20PE%20Report.pdf

Agree with your capital protection point, but nothing ventured, nothing gained. Increased US positions last night. Might increase some more tonight if it acts the shrew again...
Thanks for the chart, but I stopped paying undue attention to external researchers long time ago. No offense. Still find many poster's (especially yours, Hoop's, Snoopy's, Phaedrus' and Ananda77's) insights very informative...

peat

22-05-2010, 09:02 AM

from a risk reward ratio going long now (1070 ish) with stop set if it closes below the May 6th low of 1063 would be a reasonable approach (but not what I'm doing)

you'd have needed balls to get the 15 points so far available on that trade idea as we did in fact hit a new low overnight 0f 1052 , but note I said 'closes below', and I meant that. definitely looking a little bullish in the short term with the nature of the rises evidently different and the downs looking corrective

ananda77

22-05-2010, 01:38 PM

you'd have needed balls to get the 15 points so far available on that trade idea as we did in fact hit a new low overnight 0f 1052 , but note I said 'closes below', and I meant that. definitely looking a little bullish in the short term with the nature of the rises evidently different and the downs looking corrective

Hi Peat,

...Friday to Sunday extra busy, so sorry for not responding with 2 cents worth to your post on Friday

...the problem with SPX 500 *1075 and why not trade 'long' at this mark:

-SPX 500 below 200-day MA = Bear territory (for many people) and as a result, short trading preferable

-just ahead of important Pivot Range *1060/*1063 which acts as a magnet

-below *1065, the 2-year low channel *1050 would provide the strongest support for a market that easily severed the 200-day MA range and closed below *1090

-*1075 just a Nowhere Land mark

...as a consequence, the first potentially successful long trade would be:

long *1060 -stop *1047-

...on the flipside, trading above Pivot *1063 ideally the closer to the *1101 range the better would be shorting opportunities with -stop *1103-

short *1090/*1094 -stop *1103- (discl: currently short *1082 -stop *1103)

Kind Regards

ananda77

24-05-2010, 12:41 PM

VIDEO: Euro Collapse Looms? Will the Ban on Naked Short Selling Reverse the Slide of the Euro?
by F. William Engdahl http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=19282

The "Eurozone Coup d’Etat": Towards a Global Systemic Economic Crisis
GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin - 2010-05-16 http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=19220

Kind Regards

ananda77

25-05-2010, 05:41 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 24 May 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i50.tinypic.com/2ppycr9.jpg remains -below secondary support- and falling

Trader Update -data point 24 May 2010:

...the SPX 500 traded up to intraday *1090 and curently appears capable of holding the Friday Close with potential of short term upside targeting the May 19 Low *1101

...coming into view in case the index fails to trade past the resistance is the 2-year trendline support current *1047 and the October 2009 Low *1020 as likley down targets

...the longterm bull/bear chart shows *1103, the testing level for the previous two Bull Markets

http://i47.tinypic.com/11s0diu.jpg

-failed to hold support last week
-additionally, the zero based C-RSI is negative -1.3 -a Bull Warning-

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

peat

25-05-2010, 08:25 AM

...the longterm bull/bear chart shows *1103, the testing level for the previous two Bull Markets

I reckon the 1090 ( red line )is showing resistance at the moment
and of course the closed gap at 1120-1130 (purple line) will have some memory attached to it.

peat

25-05-2010, 03:41 PM

... not that resistance is really an issue with 11 consecutive black hourly candles.

ananda77

25-05-2010, 07:55 PM

I reckon the 1090 ( red line )is showing resistance at the moment
and of course the closed gap at 1120-1130 (purple line) will have some memory attached to it.

... not that resistance is really an issue with 11 consecutive black hourly candles.

...CMC Market SPX 500 Derivative just quoted *1043.8 a level, the bulls absolutely would want to defend ferociously since *1065 failed, if *1044 ears dirt, the market most likely heading for *1020 - *970 - *950 (-)

long *1044 -tight stop 1037- because from here, the bulls can not afford to muck around any longer

Kind Regards

peat

25-05-2010, 08:44 PM

i'm going to just keep holding my short positions... target ↓

ananda77

26-05-2010, 06:07 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 25 May 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i49.tinypic.com/2nk6z4i.jpg remains -below secondary support-

Trader Update -data point 25 May 2010:

...the SPX 500 gapped sharply lower at the Open and penetraded the 2-year trendline support current *1046 to the Feb 2010 Low *1044 to intraday Low *1041 before bouncing

...in case the bounce can be sustained above *1041 potential upside would carry the index to another challenge into the May 24 *1083/*1090 resistance zone

...failing *1083/*1090 or failure to hold intraday *1041 into today's Close would set the index up for further downside to the October 2009 Low *1020 initially with potential to reach down to the September Low *991 (-)

...institutional selling http://i48.tinypic.com/nga8ec.jpg again at pivot

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

peat

26-05-2010, 08:27 AM

long *1044 -tight stop 1037- because from here, the bulls can not afford to muck around any longer

looks like that trade held
nice!

ananda77

26-05-2010, 05:29 PM

Hi Peat,

...one of the lowest risk trades for a while since the

-long position/stop spread- was minimal and upside potential at maximum

-*1044, a bullish/bearish directional 'Make or Break' level

-Tick NYSE 25 May 2010 positive at Market Open (+973 +594 +1377 +383 +669 +1366 +241)

-in contrast to May 24 when the market was gunned up in the last 15 minutes by HFT desperate to motivate Cash into a falling market, *1044 was defended ferociously with broad institutional support (since the investing public was hopeless 'short') throughout the trading session

...as a result, the SPX 500 Hedge

http://i50.tinypic.com/25kneae.jpg

now shows a TENTATIVE bottom indicating a possible end to the 14.5 % correction

Kind Regards

ananda77

27-05-2010, 05:58 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 26 May 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i50.tinypic.com/1675uld.jpg remains -below secondary support-

Trader Update -data point 26 May 2010:

...so far, the SPX 500 took another rebuff after trading intraday into the May resistance zone *1083/*1090/*1095 and needs now follow up strength to keep the May 25 sharp advance going to take out resistance decisively on a Close basis

...failing *1083/*1090/*1095 would set the index up for a retest of the May 25 Low *1041 with potential to reach down to the October 2009 Low *1020 initially with the *1000 psych level and the September Low *991 also coming into view as potential down targets

...institutional selling http://i45.tinypic.com/5x4eoo.jpg at pivot with trend change potential

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

peat

27-05-2010, 08:40 AM

I reckon the 1090 ( red line )is showing resistance at the moment

rejected from 1090 exactly.

peat

27-05-2010, 12:13 PM

dont deny that belg
support at the 61.8% retracement of 1057 will probably break through 1090 this time.

peat

27-05-2010, 06:31 PM

support at the 61.8% retracement of 1057 will probably break through 1090 this time.

bounced of the fib level pretty well! this is why I dont take much stock of Phaedrus quoting academic studies... sometimes (and I accept completely its only sometimes) its just too beautiful to be chance.

ananda77

27-05-2010, 08:21 PM

True ... But for how long? ... Methinks the macros can't be ignored for much longer and given the volitility at present any support/resistance levels can be blasted thru without much warning.

bounced of the fib level pretty well! this is why I dont take much stock of Phaedrus quoting academic studies... sometimes (and I accept completely its only sometimes) its just too beautiful to be chance.

Hi Peat and Belgarion,

...after yesterday's *1041 successful defense to a Close *1074, then today's rally into the *1083/*1090/*1095 resistance zone, and the rejection to break through higher

I would argue, the SPX 500 index rebuff down to *1062 (ideally thought we see the *1041/*1050 area) today was in fact a necessary 'confirm' the change, from bearish to bullish trading sentiment (becoming strong above *1117)

...and only a break below *1041 on a Close basis (the market tonight could still go for another test at the *1041/*1050) would signal lower Lows ahead at this stage

...as a result, the SPX 500 Hedge signals:

http://i46.tinypic.com/25jcpoy.jpg

the bottom of the 14.5 % correction is in and may have already been confirmed with todays retreat to *1062; the bullish scenario eats dirt on a Close below *1041

Kind Regards

ananda77

27-05-2010, 09:11 PM

Thanks A77. Feedback most appreciated, as is your dailly toil.

One notes that asian markets today are ignoring the (constructed?) malaise of US markets and focusing on asian fundementals that actually look pretty good. One day, however, does not make a summer.

Hi Belgarion,

...look also at the 2010 January/February correction and discover the striking similarity in trading...the only difference, and this is what leaves me a bit uncertain, is that the recovery to above *1117 takes a bit long to be completely reassuring this time around

Kind Regards

ananda77

28-05-2010, 06:07 AM

Hey A77.

Staying up for US open? You bad day-trader you :) (So am I BTW as I have work work to do at the same time but have buys placed).

...just been working a bit late, but had a good sleep like always...anyway, you seem to be cheeery with all the Cash you making -good on you-

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 27 May 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i48.tinypic.com/255i2op.jpg remains -below secondary support-

Trader Update -data point 27 May 2010:

...still an aenemic number of new Highs and an unconvincing NYSE Tick...the SPX 500 trying to trade higher past the May 20 *1095 but so far unsuccessful

...despite higher volume, until *1095 is taken out decisively into todays Close, the index remains vulnerable to a retest of the May 18 Low *1041 with potential to reach down to the October 2009 Low *1020 initially with the *1000 psych level and the September Low *991 also coming into view as potential down targets

...institutional selling http://i46.tinypic.com/1zxxdua.jpg at pivot with trend change potential -trendlines meet-

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

28-05-2010, 09:13 AM

1095 was indeed taken out. And I'd say in a pretty decisive manner.

...yes, looks bullish with a Close smack on the 200-day MA *1103 with bulls keen to take the hurdle

-long > *1103 -stop 1082-

Kind Regards

beacon

28-05-2010, 04:56 PM

-long > *1103 -stop 1082-

That should make you money. If I read the markets correctly, it will drop below 1103 today but will not breach 1082, almost as a last farewell to Bears, and a last chance to the Big Bulls to load up at the cheap. The world will finally have its long awaited Sunny days ...

ananda77

29-05-2010, 06:08 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 28 May 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i47.tinypic.com/10fxnxf.jpg remains -below secondary support-

Trader Update -data point 28 May 2010:

...like often towards the end of the week and a US long weekend coming up, the SPX 500 taking a Lazy below *1103 with an intraday Low *1086 so far

...NYSE uptick buying power suggests continous buying at these lower levels and the downticks appear corrective

...once trading is back to normal early next week, targets above *1103 are the short term trendline resistance *1131 with the May 18 High *1148 having corrective appeal for a re-confirmation of the *1090 area before heading higher again

...institutional selling http://i45.tinypic.com/103y1yw.jpg -selling weakens-

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

beacon

01-06-2010, 12:14 PM

critical week. 1083 challenged Ananda77, could be breached ...

ananda77

01-06-2010, 04:20 PM

critical week. 1083 challenged Ananda77, could be breached ...

Hi Beacon,

...the market could be into the formation of a right shoulder topping at SPX 500 *1150 (January 2010 High) and to achieve the formation needs to trade above the 200-day MA

consequently -long above *1103 -stop 1082- to *1150 (my current outlook)

...a Close below *1083 does not make sense to me at this stage

OK Beacon,

...actual reality is now as of today:

-long *1083 -stop *1074 as the better option re: long position/stop spread

Kind Regards

beacon

01-06-2010, 09:23 PM

1074 breached, 1065 in sight. The lower it goes, the bigger the rally that will ensue. Can't believe the amount of drama unfolding, especially as $1 Trillion has been put on the table to support a $4 Trillion Eurozone economy. $1.5 Trillion USD was enough to support a $15 Trillion US economy. Expecting 1300 before Xmas 2010 ...

ananda77

02-06-2010, 05:47 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 1 June 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i50.tinypic.com/2s1sz2s.jpg remains -below secondary support-

Trader Update -data point 1 June 2010:

...the SPX 500 traded down to intraday Low *1078 and appears to be on its way now to try to challenge the 200-day MA level current *1105 albeit hesitant and unconvincing amidst market internals wearing bearish colours

...as a result, failure or more selling-off games in front of the 200-day MA at the Close or into tomorrows Open would introduce new risks for the market to push for a re-test of the May 25 Low *1041 and potential to reach down to the October 2009 Low *1020 initially with the *1000 psych level and the September Low *991 also coming into view as potential down targets

...institutional selling http://i48.tinypic.com/15mmcuv.jpg trendline x-over -selling weakens-

long *1083 -stop *1074- successful / now neutral *1091

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

03-06-2010, 07:11 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 2 June 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i46.tinypic.com/15q7oef.jpg remains -below secondary support-

Trader Update -data point 2 June 2010:

...the SPX 500 traded down to intraday Low *1072 before reversing losses and appears to be on its way now to try to challenge the 200-day MA level current *1105 the second time around

...failing the 200-day MA again would introduce new risks for the market to push for a re-test of the May 25 Low *1041 and potential to reach down to the October 2009 Low *1020 initially with the *1000 psych level and the September Low *991 also coming into view as potential down targets

...on the flipside, a sustained push above *1105 would motivate the market to trade into the *1121/*1131area with the May 18 High *1148 coming into view

...institutional selling http://i49.tinypic.com/23vcfmv.jpg trendline x-over -selling increased with danger to jeopardize nascent down trend-

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

beacon

03-06-2010, 08:25 AM

trendline x-over -selling increased with danger to jeopardize nascent down trend-

You mean - naescent uptrend ...

ananda77

04-06-2010, 07:40 AM

You mean - naescent uptrend ...

...selling needs to trend down to be positive

Looking For A Fake 700,000 May Non-Farm Payroll Number
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/looking-fake-700000-may-non-farm-payroll-number

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 3 June 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i48.tinypic.com/nz0e1j.jpg -below secondary support- possibility for right shoulder

Trader Update -data point 3 June 2010:

...the SPX 500 traded into *1105 but so far failed to take the hurdle; the consequent drive down to the short term support *1090 level appears corrective however and the index is closing in again on the 200-day MA block for now

-the NYSE tick up to 15:00 pm:

-803.0 +186.0 -1426.0 -332.0 -1134.00 -901.0

...failing the 200-day MA again would introduce new risks for the market to push for a re-test of the May 25 Low *1041 and potential to reach down to the October 2009 Low *1020 initially with the *1000 psych level and the September Low *991 also coming into view as potential down targets

...on the flipside, a sustained push above *1105/*1113 would motivate the market to trade into the *1121/*1131area with the May 18 High *1148 coming into view

...institutional selling http://i48.tinypic.com/14y07io.jpg trendline x-over -selling trending down-

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

beacon

04-06-2010, 10:10 AM

...selling needs to trend down to be positive

Thanks. i see what you mean now.
Should HSI overtake 20,000 again today, it'll be easier for SPX to get over 200 MA. Or will it be the other way around...
Fake or real, non-farm employment is expected to increase substantially, due to census. keeping the powder dry, just in case ...

ananda77

05-06-2010, 05:46 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 4 June 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i48.tinypic.com/1jvsjd.jpg -below secondary support-

Trader Update -data point 4 June 2010:

...as expected after yesterdays NYSE tick warning, the SPX 500 miserably failed the 200-day MA again and crashed through the *1095/*1090/*1083 support, now heading straight towards the pivotal 1-yr lower channel current *1069/2-yr trendline support current *1063 zone

...a Close below the pivot zone, the market goes after the May 25 Low *1041 initially with potential to reach down to the October 2009 Low *1020 with the *1000 psych level and the September Low *991 also coming into view as potential down targets

...on the flipside, a successful defense of the pivot zone would set the market up for a summer rally into the *1121/*1131 area with the May 18 High *1148 coming into view

...institutional selling trendline x-over http://i46.tinypic.com/2940v0w.jpg -selling trending down-

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

peat

05-06-2010, 07:33 AM

Before the numbers came out there was a very bearish candle pattern on the hourly

Phaedrus

05-06-2010, 08:43 AM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SPv65.gif

Hoop

05-06-2010, 10:20 AM

Before the numbers came out there was a very bearish candle pattern on the hourly

Saw this one coming too Peat... about 6 hours before the Europe markets tanked, the base metal index took a dive during the early trading on Friday (half way during the Aussi market session)..similar to that of what happened 4 or 5 days later after the flash crash when the markets suddenly weakened. This GFMS index has been very accurate lately as an leading indicator giving advanced warnings for a falling market not so leading in the bottoming/recovery process department unfortunately.

...so.. it seems we are back to where we were a couple of weeks ago:(

peat

08-06-2010, 12:22 AM

bear flag forming imo

ananda77

08-06-2010, 02:15 AM

bear flag forming imo

...riding Fridays fall 'short' -'neutral' today down to *1052

Kind Regards

ananda77

08-06-2010, 07:19 AM

...riding Fridays fall 'short' -'neutral' today down to *1052

Kind Regards

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 7 June 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i48.tinypic.com/a421vk.jpg -below secondary support- no further evidence for H&S so far

Trader Update -data point 7 June 2010:,

...the SPX 500 failed its first attempt at the *1070 level intraday and so far barely holding on to the 2-yr trendline support current *1062 which indicates ongoing pressure to produce more downside
some buying interest however is apparent on the NYSE and with market breadth neutral there is scope for a bounce targeting the May 21... Congestion *1089 near term

...failing *1089 or a Close below *1062 today, the market goes after the May 25 Low *1041 initially with potential to reach down to the October 2009 Low *1020 initially with the *1000 psych level and the September Low *991 also coming into view as potential down target

...institutional selling http://i50.tinypic.com/snowi0.jpg -selling down trend challenged-

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

Hoop

08-06-2010, 10:12 AM

S&P500 finished on its primary support line 1050 so not yet a bear market...I don't expect the 1050 support to hold as the S&P is following the rest of the worlds markets into bear territory.. so.... I expect more downside to come.

winner69

08-06-2010, 10:29 AM

Us markets have for a while generally opened higher but closiing down - is a very bearish signal

beacon

08-06-2010, 10:45 AM

Fear rules at the moment...

winner69

08-06-2010, 01:27 PM

Time to be brave then? .... Nah. I'm waiting for capitulation phase which I feel is quite close, maybe another 3-5% max.

Belg - have you seen this chart of profit margins of S&P stocks over the years .... the red bit is analyst expectations .... ie to reflect S&P earnings of 80 to make the S&P500 dort of fairly valued and all that

Intersting to note that a fair chunk of the last few years earnings (at record profit margins) have been written off (non cash of course)

Capitulation some time off I fear Belg

winner69

08-06-2010, 04:45 PM

Where the graph come from W69? Can you post associated words. Ta.

Its here but don't read it Belg ... far too depressing for you

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100607.htm

ananda77

09-06-2010, 07:26 AM

...the SPX 500 so far respected the May 20 Low and appears to be in for a bounce with the June 7 High *1071 as an initial target; potential to reach higher to May 21 Congestion... *1089

..room for plenty of caution as internals signal 'selling into strength, indicating a break of the *1041 level soonish if the bounce back fails below the *1071/*1089 level

Kind Regards

ananda77

10-06-2010, 08:28 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 9 June 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i48.tinypic.com/2ng67fb.jpg -below secondary support- large expanding wedge formation start January 2010 developing?-

Trader Update -data point 9 June 2010:

...the SPX 500 extended its bounce from the June 8 Low *1042 to an intraday High *1078 backed by reasonable positive market breadth and apparent continuous buying tick pressure

...selling brought the index back again towards the May 25 Low *1040 pivotal support to a Close *1056

...trading above *1040 leaves the play open for the bulls to drive the index towards another challenge of the 200-day MA current *1107

...failing the May 25 Low *1041 and the index is in deep bear territory with potential to reach down to

-the October 2009 Low *1020 initially
-the *1000 psych level
-the September Low *991

...institutional selling http://i49.tinypic.com/wkk655.jpg -selling down trend resuming but remains challenged-

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

peat

10-06-2010, 09:38 AM

just keeps on getting swatted back ....
it may find support again but those turn downs seem to have quite a bit of venom in them so i wouldnt count on it -

ananda77

10-06-2010, 12:18 PM

SPX 500 Close below *1040 -point of no return for the bulls-

Kind Regards

beacon

10-06-2010, 03:07 PM

SPX 500 Close below *1040 -point of no return for the bulls-

No numbers are sacrosanct in this market. Whether for ceilings up or down. It makes a mockery of all prophecies - intelligent or wishfull...

beacon

10-06-2010, 05:12 PM

All true beacon, but like a stop loss, you need to have a point somewhere you're not taking any more hits.

You mean like a personal capitulation point. Or maybe a colors reversal point ?

beacon

10-06-2010, 10:36 PM

Ah, whittaker ...

ananda77

11-06-2010, 05:52 AM

Ah, whittaker ...

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 10 June 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i45.tinypic.com/1znvoep.jpg -below secondary support/trending down - large expanding wedge formation start January 2010 developing?-

Trader Update -data point 10 June 2010:

...the SPX 500 reversed course and gapped up at the Open into the May 21...*1089 Congestion resistance zone to intraday *1083 backed by surprisingly bullish daily market internals
the market so far appears set to follow through higher towards the Close to challenge *1089 but failing *1089 again should trigger an immediate sell-off that would be the overture to finally take the May 25 Low *1041 out

...in deep bear territory potential down targets are

-the October 2009 Low *1020 initially
-the *1000 psych level
-the September Low *991

...institutional selling http://i48.tinypic.com/2el9xuc.jpg -selling trend sideways-

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

Phaedrus

11-06-2010, 09:17 AM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP611.gif

ananda77

11-06-2010, 07:01 PM

SPX 500 Hedge: http://i50.tinypic.com/2qvz7mc.jpg

10 % portfolio protection -May 27 level *1064- stop *1037; down from 50 % -April 29 level *1210-

Kind Regards

ananda77

12-06-2010, 06:22 AM

...SPX 500 *1089/*1092 pivotal test ahead:

-fail > *1040 eats dirt

-above *1092 > *1040 bottom confirmed and a summer rally starts

...todays internals are bearish with sustantial selling NYSE Tick -23.0 -1473.0 -1060.0 -495.0 -983.0 (so far)

Kind Regards

peat

12-06-2010, 10:03 AM

yeh the speech was given at the Institute of International Finance, Vienna, Austria, June 10, 2010
I'm pretty free market oriented but I totally agree with him re the CDS's , as an insurance product someone should have an insurable interest. Its a basic insurance concept.

I love how he ridicules the EMH. Looking forward to his speech on the Euro in a couple of weeks

I couldnt find the full speech on his website so I've attached it as a text file here (I got it in an email by being a subscriber from his website)

ananda77

15-06-2010, 05:24 AM

...the SPX 500 clearly above *1092 so far and a Close above that level would confirm *1042 as a medium term floor

...next likely upside target May 28 High *1107 and June 8 High *1108 area before a run to challenge current *1122

Kind Regards

peat

15-06-2010, 06:13 AM

potential shooting star forming though

ananda77

15-06-2010, 10:46 AM

...the Nasdaq closed above the 200-day MA and the Russell 2000 trades well above it (bullish)...the SPX 500 likely to follow with another attempt of an upside break...but to be sure, the SPX 500 needs to clear now *1100 and in a hurry

Kind Regards

ananda77

16-06-2010, 07:23 AM

...the SPX 500 shrugged off yesterdays shallow sell-off and subsequently cleared the *1100 hurdle today confirming the May 25 Low as the medium term Low;
as institutional selling remains down trending and institutions are on the verge of accumulation, the immediate upside attraction features current *1121 with expectations that this level will be cleared towards the weekend or early next week

...trading above *1121 opens the index up for further upside with:

-the May 18 High *1149 (just below the January 2010 High) as a medium term target before a possible short term corrective drive would spanner the index on its way up towards the April 22 High *1220
the current downside for the advancing SPX 500 is the lack of liquidity flowing into the market

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

beacon

17-06-2010, 11:30 AM

Could be ... Methinks a few more tests of 1040 are about due.

Now that is a million dollar question. what do you think Ananda?

ananda77

17-06-2010, 12:17 PM

Now that is a million dollar question. what do you think Ananda?

...basically, after today, the index may want

-to confirm the *1100/*1105 level
-then take out *1121 and
-above that level make its way towards the January High *1150 from where a larger corrective drive would start

...if there is any earnings- or GDP disappointment -not meeting high expectations- *1040 will be taken out

Kind Regards

beacon

17-06-2010, 01:19 PM

...if there is any earnings- or GDP disappointment -not meeting high expectations- *1040 will be taken out

Kind Regards

Ta. The bears certainly appear to have advantage ...
Rumours about Spain's banks, EU recession next year, US housing impending crash abound...

ananda77

18-06-2010, 10:03 AM

...the SPX 500 index confirmed the *1100/*1105 level and finished the day closing higher again with the futures staying alive above *1108; institutions continued -selling less- but are not yet in an accumulative up-trend
for the last three days, market internals displayed a hefty negative divergence against the SPX 500 index which signals a continuous cautious approach when playing this market

... Friday is quadruble witching option day with call/put clusters accumulating around the *1110/*1112 level which makes a short trade from todays Close a viable intraday strategy
however, it is likely that this superflous rally will continue early next week taking out the *1121 level and heading higher to challenge the 50-day MA current *1144 and the May 18 High *1149 in the next 1-2 weeks

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

22-06-2010, 07:26 AM

Trader Update -data point 21 June 2010:

...the SPX 500 gapped up in a first attempt to the April/June Break *1131 and promptly reversed lower
...continuous negative divergences in internals over the last week highlighted underlying weakness in the current advance
furthermore, short term price momentum has reached a stage now from where further slippage down to a minimum *1107 support is likley with potential to reach down as far as the *1077/*1090 Congestion
...a successful defense in that area will motivate the market into a multi-week rally with the current *1180 resistance pointing to limiting upside potential

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

23-06-2010, 07:13 AM

Trader Update -data point 22 June 2010:

...basically nothing new to add after todays trading; a Close above *1105 is needed to prevent further slippage towards the current *1078/*1090 congestion

ananda77

24-06-2010, 07:49 AM

Trader Update -data point 23 June 2010:

...the SPX 500 traded into the *1077/*1090 Congestion and down-price momentum appears to be stabilizing with internals remaining mixed at best

instituional selling is at an alert point from where the current downtrend could reverse but liquidity inflows into markets are making higher lows and higher highs while remaining in contraction territory

...as a consequence, it appears the market is getting set for a move to the upside but remains vulnarable for a test of the lower end of the Congestion range current *1075

...a successful defense in that area will motivate the market into a multi-week rally with the current *1180 resistance pointing to limiting upside potential

Trade: long *1087 -stop *1077- (on way up from *1075* test)

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

beacon

25-06-2010, 11:29 AM

...as a consequence, it appears the market is getting set for a move to the upside but remains vulnarable for a test of the lower end of the Congestion range current *1075

...a successful defense in that area will motivate the market into a multi-week rally with the current *1180 resistance pointing to limiting upside potential

Brilliant consistent annotations on volatile market moves. This volatility is making happy traders, but nervous nellies out of investors ...

ananda77

25-06-2010, 11:38 AM

This volatility is making happy traders, but nervous nellies out of investors ...

Hi beacon,

...the only thing to add to that after todays trading:

Trader Update -data point 24 June 2010:

Trade: long *1076 -stop *1065- for convinced bulls if there are any left out there; keep 'protective shorts' until the market clears *1089 on a Close basis

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

26-06-2010, 06:58 AM

Trader Update -data point 26 June 2010-

...without analyzing so far and just going by looking at the trading, today likely to be the 'drought breaker' to the *1180 SPX 500 minimum upside target;

-the day before a weekend often does have funny Closes-

Kind Regards

ananda77

26-06-2010, 03:37 PM

...market internals (up-tick buying - breadth - trin) positive divergent on NYSE Friday trading indicating potential reversal to upside above SPX 500 *1070

Kind Regards

beacon

28-06-2010, 09:57 AM

G20 solidarity could prove pivotal...
Expecting resumption of uptrend too Ananda ...

beacon

28-06-2010, 10:16 AM

Forget the PIIGS. Could California be the next one?

They got in the soup because of the mayhem caused in 2008 crash...
Precisely the reason why they will not allow bears an encore in the market. And till last week, the bearish sentiment has been playing havoc again. Manipulation or not, the big fish waiting to get on board for a rally may have left it too late ...

beacon

28-06-2010, 11:46 AM

The ultra low 10yr US bond yeild suggests that the big fish aren't that keen to jump into stocks just yet ...

Yet the TED spread started to come down last week ...

beacon

28-06-2010, 02:14 PM

... And the G20 helped to smooth things out with currency mrkts showing a higher risk apetite ... Okay ... I'm bullish for Monday.

Not sure about Monday, as 450 bn EU loans need to be refinanced this week. The bosses might have a vested interest in keeping volatility in the interim till Thursday to lock in lower debt rates. This will also provide the big fish to come in at lower priced equity without seeming like the market's saying "Up Yours" to G20. Expecting a dip followed by a higher end to the week...

ananda77

28-06-2010, 02:35 PM

G20 solidarity could prove pivotal...
Expecting resumption of uptrend too Ananda ...

...actually beacon, am not totally up-trendy and expect institutions:

-to drive the SPX 500 towards *1220 by keeping their selling to a level that allows the broad market to support the up-move
-near *1170/*1180 (+) selling into strength increases and the market starts to descent taking out *1040 on its way towards the *900 mark
-around the *900 mark, institutions start to accumulate heavily and CB's start new liquidity programs

because institutional investors are still net short equities at present

...on the flipside, if *1070 eats dirt shortly, braze for an imminent dive towards the *900-level

...of course these are just ideas floating around in cyber space but originated in the minds of astute international investment gurus and experienced index traders

Trade: long *1076 -stop *1066- keep 'protective shorts' until *1089 is taken out on a Close basis

...although volume indicates ONLY the spike in the Russell 2000 Friday is remarkable:

http://i48.tinypic.com/qxjq4y.png

Kind Regards

beacon

28-06-2010, 09:31 PM

For you belg, make of this what you will (Source Bloomberg, link below) ....

U.S. stock prices are mirroring government bond yields more than ever, a signal to bulls that shares may be poised to rally. Rising correlations show investors are ignoring relative values among industries and assets and reacting to day-to-day signals on the economy, convinced Europe’s debt crisis will spur the second global contraction in three years.

The S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury rates posted a correlation coefficient of 0.8412 in the 60 trading days through June 16, showing stock prices and bond yields were the most linked in Bloomberg data going back to 1962. The last time the relationship was almost this strong during an economic expansion was at the beginning of the 2002 to 2007 bull market, when the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities doubled.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601057&sid=aVk2ZMgNS5Z0

And more food for thought here:

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601057&sid=aA.3NTNwQyLo

peat

29-06-2010, 02:29 AM

...although volume indicates ONLY the spike in the Russell 2000 Friday is remarkable:

did you see this :

Today's session was a bit unusual in that it incorporated the annual changes to Russell Investments'
benchmarks, which include the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 indexes. According to a Bloomberg story,
"Today's Russell rebalance is one of the largest in the past few years." Russell estimates that $3.9 trillion is
benchmarked to its U.S. stock indexes and investors that mimic the performance of these indexes must buy
and sell shares to match Russell's adjustments. None of these changes alter the market's trend or overall
wave structure, but they resulted in a huge upward spike in volume to 2.51 billion shares traded on the
NYSE.

ananda77

29-06-2010, 07:11 AM

Thank You, peat

Trader Update -data point 28 June 2010:

...the SPX 500 so far holding above June 25 Low *1068 but provides no real sense of direction as the index appears to be developing an inside day

...after Fridays trading, institutional selling remais at an alert point from where the current downtrend could reverse, liquidity inflows into markets remain in contraction territory, and market internals are neutral today

...the index appears to be on 'hold and wait' awaiting the ADP job report Wednesday for further directional clues; again, the *1070 level appears pivotal and holding through to Wednesday would provide a solid base for the start of a multi-week rally

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

beacon

29-06-2010, 09:54 AM

...the index appears to be on 'hold and wait' awaiting the ADP job report Wednesday for further directional clues; again, the *1070 level appears pivotal and holding through to Wednesday would provide a solid base for the start of a multi-week rally

... unless spooked by non-farm Payrolls on Friday. Reporting season starts next week too ...
But thanks Ananda, your insight confirms my analysis. That is very comforting to me in the prevailing market indecisiveness (or Machiavellian manipulation??, i don't care what it is called).

The worry is that if 1000 is breached, the bulls (or have been bulls) will metamorphose into bears turning future market slips into landslides. Would that matter to big fish? I think it will.
Will global Government allow the market to breach this last line in sand. I suspect they won't. But if it happens and if they do, what then? To be or not to be ...

beacon

29-06-2010, 06:59 PM

1040 is the level that I'm watching ... If it isn't tested this week then the bottom of this correction is well and truely in.

If it is breached, I guess, it finishes a major chunk of the current generation of retail investors for life ("any bulls still left" after the volatility of late, that is...). This bull would certainly be packing his bags ...

ananda77

30-06-2010, 07:22 AM

Trader Update -data point 29 June 2010:

...after trading below the pivotal *1070 level to take out the June 25 Low, the SPX 500 dived lower and currently challenges the June 8 Low *1042

...a closing violation of *1042 or the May Low *1041 would set the next down targets:

-Nov 2009 Low *1029
-Oct 2009 Low *1020* at a minimum
-Sept 4 2009 Support *1000
-scope to reach down to Aug 2009 Low *978 before stabilizing

...on the flipside, holding above *1041/*1042 would signal the market is prepared to do base building that would result in a near term floor

...watch out for the 50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA, while the 200-day MA is sinking (Rosenberg calls it the 'death cross' and he expects the event within the next two weeks)

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

Phaedrus

30-06-2010, 08:09 AM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP630.gif

Hoop

30-06-2010, 12:33 PM

I hate it when the Permabears get their day in the sunshine....always the same boring predictable behaviour when their sun comes out......the chorus of deafening noise of .."We could see it happening, we told you so "...:mad ;::p

Disclosure. This post is sharing my personal viewpoint only.

1...For holders of ASX and NZX shares....note that the S&P 500 is just entering the bear market stage from a 16 month cyclic bull market. The S&P500 is trailing the Shanghai ASX and NZX markets which have already entered into a Bear market and for a while now. (see Goldilocks and the 3 bears thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7008-Goldilocks-and-the-3-Bears-%28FTSE100-DOW-S-amp-P500)).

Simple Head & Shoulder pattern completely formed to breakout stage.

from Thomas Bulkowsky Encyclopedia of Chart patterns 2nd edition.

Once the breakout has happened the failure rate of the index dropping less than 5% is only 4% :(
50% chance the share will rise to near that 1050 break out line (PULL BACK) giving a person a second chance to sell out ...but beware the pull back may keep going up ending the decline.
Average drop from breakout line 20% with pullback (840)
Average drop from breakout line 24% without pullback (798)
43% chance the ultimate bottom happens within the next 28 days
28% chance the ultimate bottom happens after 70 days
Average duration to ultimate bottom is about 2 months (60 days)
55% chance of meeting the target price.

The good news :) the average rise after the ultimate bottom is +51% in a bull market +45% in bear market ...so if you can find the bottom and enter huge rewards may wait for you:D

Chart note the predicted red dotted line is not to scale. It has a pullback feature which has a 50% chance of happening.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP50029062010.png

Footsie

30-06-2010, 02:35 PM

hoop are you Chinese?

Hoop

30-06-2010, 02:51 PM

hoop are you Chinese?

没有Footsie
我是欧洲血脉猕猴桃。
我的邻居虽则汉语:D:D:D

Footsie

30-06-2010, 04:35 PM

以及所有那些8 的你我想知道

Phaedrus

30-06-2010, 05:01 PM

I have reported that post to the ST Moderator. We don't want that sort of talk here. Disgusting.

ananda77

30-06-2010, 05:16 PM

...the SPX 500 did not violate *1042/*1041 on a Close basis today but chances are very slim for a noticable advance before the ADP numbers (8:15 US Eastern) or possibly before the Friday Initial Claim numbers and the forecast for both TILT to a negative result

...in the meantime, the index could just drift lower for lack of anything else and IF the numbers come in positive (surprise, surprise), could jolt higher to start another advance

...on the flipside, the index signals base-building if it just keeps hugging the flatline with *1041/*1042 as the low point till Friday and a Trade: long *1041 -stop *1034- would be a low risk position just before the release of the numbers

Kind Regards

ananda77

30-06-2010, 05:23 PM

Not even going to try to find the bottom. What is going on makes very little sense to me. I'm just going to keep reducing the target buy prices and hope not to get caught in a sucker.

Hi belgarion,

...its called 'BUY Low - SELL High'

Kind Regards

Hoop

30-06-2010, 06:53 PM

OMG...our Chinese sucks....:p:p:p:p

ananda77

01-07-2010, 07:19 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 30 June 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i49.tinypic.com/2nvziq.jpg -at wedge support level-

Trader Update -data point 30 June 2010:

…institutional activity is at a critical level as the basic bias tends to negative at support level
intraday action looks tedious as upticks appear gruntless and internals remain negative but so far, the SPX manages to stay alive above May Low *1041 -just-

...as a consequence risk to the downside remains high with the index trading below current *1053/*1056 and combined with a closing violation of *1042 or the May Low *1041 would set the next down targets:

-Nov 2009 Low *1029
-Oct 2009 low *1020*at a minimum
-scope to reach down to Aug 2009 Low *978 before stabilizing

...on the flipside, holding above *1041/*1042 would signal the market is prepared to do base building that would result in a near term floor

...institutional selling http://i48.tinypic.com/207w6ya.jpg -selling reversed to upside-

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

Stranger_Danger

01-07-2010, 07:47 AM

hmmm will the S + P close under 1040? Looking more than possible right now...

Footsie

01-07-2010, 12:51 PM

for all those who don't know... the Chinese believe 8 to be a lucky number
last time S&P stopped at 666
The number 6 (六, Pinyin: liù) in Mandarin is pronounced the same as "lee-oh" (澑, Pinyin: liù) and similar to "fluid" (流, Pinyin: liú) and is therefore considered good for business. The number 6 also represents happiness. In Cantonese, this number is a homophone for blessings (祿 Lok）
8
The word for "eight" (八 Pinyin: bā) sounds similar to the word which means "prosper" or "wealth" (发 – short for "发财", Pinyin: fā). In regional dialects the words for "eight" and "fortune" are also similar

ananda77

02-07-2010, 06:04 AM

Trader Update -data point 1 July 2010:

…institutional selling continued higher and the institutional index core holding closed below support but the institutional 'shift in direction' has reached now extreme low levels indicating potential for a short covering rally near term

…intraday so far, the SPX bounced off from the session Low *1011 just ahead of major support levels:

-*1000 psych barrier
-*992 September 2009 Low
-*988 August 6 Low

although market internals remain weak and risks remain high for another probe lower below *1011, the support trio will likely hold as a short to medium term floor

…a successful defense in the *988/*1000 range would set the tone for a rebound back into the *1120/*1130 Congestion

'protective shorts' to *1049 on a Close basis

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

05-07-2010, 03:57 PM

Trader Update -data point 5 July 2010:

...the SPX 500 traded up to the intraday High *1033 just below the June 29 Low *1035 and immediately got sold off to intraday Low *1016 to a Close *1023
although it is difficult to comment on the SPX 500 Friday Trading Action and Close in terms of potential future price action because of the 4th July public holiday in the US, some interesting positive technical divergences appear in the US market at present:

-Institutional Index Core Holding
http://i45.tinypic.com/qohnc5.jpg below primary and secondary support trending down but

-the P&F to July 2010
http://i46.tinypic.com/yf715.jpg testing a double support

-Institutional selling
http://i49.tinypic.com/10nufis.jpg up-trending but

-the institutional 'shift in direction'
http://i45.tinypic.com/3007far.jpg at extremely low level with potential to turn up

-Long Term trend Fed/Foreign liquidity inflows
http://i45.tinypic.com/2zpkozq.jpg in contraction territory but near -100% level

-Positive VIX.DVol to NYSE divergence
http://i45.tinypic.com/vhew69.jpg end of Thursday July 1 trading

...the Friday jobs report was anything but positive... but the market reaction -selling the index *1033 off- could have been subject to the 4th July extended weekend
if the market ignores the bad employment data on Tuesday, a potential rally of the SPX 500 support trio into the *1120/*1130 Congestion is expected
if the positive divergences in the market do not come into play -braze for a melt down-

the SPX 500 hedge remains 'protective short' to *1049 on a Close basis

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

07-07-2010, 06:43 AM

Trader Update -data point 6 July 2010:

...as expected, the SPX 500 reversed sharply to intraday High *1043 after setting a new Low *1007 in pre-market Open trading
in the meantime, the index trades around the short term lower channel support current *1022 in what appears to be a shallow pull-back
the impulsive nature of todays rebound however suggests that the index will continue its advance after the congestive *1022/*1030 range is confirmed to head back up into the *1120/*1130 range at a minimum

...trading past the June 30 High *1048 confirms this view and the rally should accelerate above that level

the SPX 500 hedge remains 'protective short' to *1049 on a Close basis

Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg

Kind Regards

Logen Ninefingers

07-07-2010, 04:36 PM

Another day of staving off the slide towards a bear market.

ananda77

08-07-2010, 06:32 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 7 July 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding P&F http://i32.tinypic.com/4zwao0.jpg -paramount for index to hold support-

Trader Update -data point 7 July 2010:

...accompanied by bullish market internals, the SPX 500 rallies up from intraday Low *1029 to trade at *1051 so far, but needs to continue to show strength into a Close above *1048

...unfortunately, the bullish picture remains tainted by a Russell 2000 which does not share the bullish enthusiam in the larger indexes

...as a consequence, risks remain for the SPX 500 to the downside below a Close of the June 30 Low *1048

...institutional selling http://i30.tinypic.com/2j4adxe.jpg -up-trend with positive divergence-

Long Term: http://i30.tinypic.com/33bzfgk.jpg

Kind Regards

Logen Ninefingers

08-07-2010, 07:43 AM

Dows up over 200 points today. Should equate to a good day down here.

Lizard

08-07-2010, 07:53 AM

Once they got through 180 pts, that 10000 mark had a big red target on it! Will they sell it into the close?

ananda77

08-07-2010, 07:57 AM

...with the SPX 500 continuous show of strength into the Close -although the Russell 2000 still sits below Yesterdays Close- the next potential upside targets for the SPX 500:

-June 25 congestion *1068/*1083
-3-month upper channel resistance *1097

Kind Regards

arco

08-07-2010, 10:31 AM

We had a great night with DJIA

blog notes from Short Term Ideas for scalpers/day traders who can work with the action.

DJIA. ........remaining potential for a test towards the broken support / Chikou 9908-10024 .......and test of H1 Kumo. RESULT - Maximum +280 points

Hoop

08-07-2010, 10:38 AM

ananda77

08-07-2010, 12:06 PM

...yes Hoop, you are right, unless the *1120/*1130 level eats dirt

Kind Regards

ananda77

09-07-2010, 05:02 AM

Trader Update -data point 8 July 2010:

...the SPX 500 traded into the lower range of the June 25 *1068/*1083 congestion to intraday High *1071 initially but profit taking has taken the index back into the *1060 range so far; price action amidst mixed market internals suggests potential for a test of yesterdays break-out range *1048/*1053

...it is expected that the break-out range will act as a near term floor from where follow-through gains into the upper level of the June 25 congestion *1083 are likely

...the view above *1083 includes the 3-month upper channel resistance current *1095 and the June 23 High *1101 targets

Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/2j1o2lt.jpg

Kind Regards

Hoop

09-07-2010, 10:36 AM

Looking at where yeilds on treasuries are at I'd say an upside breakout is just about guaranteed.

Good News :).. the hammer is marking the bottom for now and is doing it usual gap movements the other way now....but ...it has to move a lot higher to get me excited :sleep::sleep:.
Bad News :(... Theory has it that the S&P500 uptick can not be sustained with T10 looking like a continuing ski slope

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/10yrUSTreasuryNotes1yr.png

ananda77

10-07-2010, 06:44 AM

Trader Update -data point 9 July 2010:

...so far, the SPX 500 flatlining just below the June 23 High *1084 with market internals remaining constructive intraday ahead of corporate earnings starting Monday
earnings forecats consensus: meet or above expectations with super careful guidance

...potential still exists for a brief test of the June 7 break-out range *1048/*1053 for lack of anything else, but it is expected, the break-out range will act as a near term floor from where follow-through gains into the upper level of the June 25 congestion *1083 are likely

...the view above *1083 includes the 3-month upper channel resistance current *1095 and the June 23 High *1101 targets

Long Term: http://i25.tinypic.com/303bl8h.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

12-07-2010, 05:49 PM

...the SPX 500 closed at Fridays session High moving closer to short term resistance *1084; despite the light flows. the strong Close indicates readiness in the market to brake above *1084 to challenge the Jun 23 High *1100 at a minimum; potential to reach out toward the Jun 21 High *1131 in the week ahead

...under any circumstances, the June 29 Low *1035 acts as the pivotal bull/bear divide

Kind Regards

ananda77

13-07-2010, 06:34 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 12 July 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i29.tinypic.com/2yvtq38.jpg -above support and rising but still in a down trend technically-

Trader Update -data point 12 July 2010:

...the SPX 500 opened higher *1081 but so far failed to leave the June 25 Congestion *1068/*1084 and the index remains trading at unchanged levels

...institutional acyivity points to an improving short term bullish outlook but todays internals are dangerously divergent, leaning heavily to the bearish side -a familiar picture of uncertainty in which the market lulls around in a waiting position-

...expect a break above *1084 for a challenge of the Jun 23 High *1100 at a minimum; potential to reach out toward the Jun 21 High *1131 in the week ahead

...under any circumstances, the June 29 Low *1035 acts as the pivotal bull/bear divide

...institutional selling http://i30.tinypic.com/30ngop3.jpg -down trend

Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/350phmq.jpg

Kind Regards

macduffy

13-07-2010, 04:37 PM

Good news for the US markets.

Reuters

NEW YORK – Alcoa Inc, the largest US aluminum producer, posted a stronger-than-expected second-quarter profit on Monday and raised its estimate for global aluminum consumption, sending its shares up three per cent.

The company, whose results are often viewed as a bellwether of the US economy, cited strength in several industrial sectors and raised its estimate for aluminum consumption this year, even as metal prices have been falling recently.

COLIN

13-07-2010, 05:50 PM

ananda77

14-07-2010, 07:05 AM

Trader Update -data point 13 July 2010:

...in a broad based rally, the SPX 500 ticked higher after the index moved out of the June 25 Congestion *1068/*1084 and further upside is likely

...targets above the June 25 Peak *1084 features the Jun 23 High *1100 at a minimum; potential to reach out to the Jun 21 High *1131 towards the end of the week but

-the May 28 High *1107
-the June 4 High/June 21 Low *1108

levels will remind the bears strongly, they are loosing their grip in the market and above the June 21 High *1131, its 'Game Over' for the bears

...initial support: the *1058/*1068 zone

Long Term: http://i25.tinypic.com/6y38cg.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

15-07-2010, 07:29 AM

Trader Update -data point 14 July 2010:

...the SPX 500 down to intraday *1087 subject to mild profit taking but holding above June 25 *1084 break-out level so far; above *1084, taking out the June 23 *1100 is on the cards

...targets above the Jun 23 High *1100 feature the May 28 High *1107, the June 4 High *1108, the June 19 High *1119 but ultimately its the June 21 High *1131 that is 'Game Over' for the bears

...however, near term overbought conditions indicate risks of a substantial corrective down move are increasing above the *1100 level

...initial support: short term *1090 then the *1058/*1068 zone

Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/s68395.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

15-07-2010, 09:20 AM

sorry Belgarion, should read near term overbought

Kind Regards

ananda77

16-07-2010, 05:42 AM

Trader Update -data point 15 July 2010:

...the SPX 500 rejected to jump the *1100 barrier and profit taking took the index down to intraday *1081 below the June 25 *1084 break-out level so far
although the index appears to have stabilized at *1080 further slippage to test the July 8 *1058/*1068 zone is possible

...a successful defense of the support zone would motivate the market to start another leg up with the June 19 High *1119 and potentially, the June 21 High *1131 as targets

Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/s68395.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

16-07-2010, 03:20 PM

...the SPX 500 is at a crossroad and at this stage can go either way

-75% of the index components already in an up-trend
-the VIX sloping up but on not enough strength
-liquidity remains stuck halfway in the contraction zone
-institutions selling less but still not accumulating to give the market final direction

...this bull/bear fight remains undecided at present up to *1131, but a short term indication for further market direction would be to clear the *1100 barrier, otherwise the market is inclined to test the July 8 *1058/*1068 support zone

-position accordingly-

Kind Regards

ananda77

17-07-2010, 06:15 AM

Trader Update -data point 16 July 2010:

...the market did not even bother -to jump the *1100 barrier and stoned the SPX 500 back smack into the upper end of the July 8 *1058/*1068 zone to intraday *1069 so far
after todays action, the overbought condition on the 3-month daily trading set-up has started to ease but remains overextended
as a consequence, the curent set-back is expected to extend down to *1058 (possibly as far down as the *1050 psych barrier) before a more bullish bias will resume IF the support zone is successfully defended

...a successful defense of the support zone would motivate the market to start another leg up with the June 19 High *1119 and potentially, the June 21 High *1131 as targets

...look for a bullish trade above *1070 – target *1130 – stop *1047

Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/s68395.jpg

Kind Regards

Phaedrus

17-07-2010, 08:57 AM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP717.gif

winner69

17-07-2010, 10:05 AM

Belg thinks this Hussman guy is an idiot but I thought this weeks newsletter was very good ... esp ifrom a FA man who believes that charts, ie tecnical traders, are what is currently holding the S&P at current levels ....before the inevitiable collapse

Misallocating Resources

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
All rights reserved and actively enforced.
Reprint Policy

Perhaps the best way to begin this week's comment is to note that in decades of market analysis, I can't remember a time that I've heard many analysts quoting some support or resistance level as being "critical" for the market Some are eyeing the 1040 "neckline" on the S&P 500 "head-and-shoulders" formation. Others are eyeing the downward trendline that connects the April and June peaks for the index. Still others point to the "death cross" between the 50-day and the 200-day moving average, near the 1100 level, as being crucial. Even Richard Russell - who deserves more respect than most - has put the full weight of his analysis, over the near term anyway, on whether or not the Dow Transportation average remains above the closing level of 3792.89. The object of discussion has increasingly turned to the implications of this particular chart formation or that, as if some magic number or another absolves investors from having to think about the big picture.

All of this suggests that this is a "rent, not own" market being driven by technical traders who uniformly and somewhat predictably pile on to the sell side or the buy side when particular levels are hit. Last week, we observed the obligatory rally to prior support, closed a "gap" in the S&P 500 chart from a couple of weeks ago, and kissed the 20-day moving average. Based on this sort of "critical level" chatter, a move above the 1100 level could trigger a powerful but short-lived burst of short-covering on the relief of the "death cross", while a move below 1040, and particularly a break in the Transports below 3792.89, would most probably cause all hell to break loose. Simply put, over the very short term, market fluctuations are likely to be driven by masses of technical traders, nearly all acting on precisely the same signals.

The key issue here is the sustainability of these moves. To the extent that an upside breakout is accompanied by a substantial relief in near-term economic concerns (e.g. a move in the ECRI Weekly Leading Index growth rate back to positive territory, or three to four weeks of plunging new claims for unemployment), one might anticipate a positive follow-through over the intermediate term. In contrast, a downside breakout accompanied by further deterioration in reliable economic indicators or poor corporate guidance would prompt a more sustained period of deterioration. Lacking such confirmation from "real" indicators of economic and corporate activity, the immediate response of breakouts or breakdowns is likely to be confined to a short burst of concerted selling or short-covering.

On a valuation basis, the S&P 500 remains about 40% above historical norms on the basis of normalized earnings. The disparity between our valuation assessment and the putative undervaluation being touted by Wall Street analysts is so great that a few remarks are in order. First, virtually every assessment that "stocks are cheap" here is based on the ratio of the S&P 500 to year-ahead operating earnings estimates, and often comes with a comparison of the resulting "earnings yield" with the depressed 10-year Treasury yield. What's fascinating about this is that this is the same basis on which analysts deemed stocks to be about 40% undervalued just prior to the 2007 top, following which the market plunged by more than half. There's a great deal of analysis regarding forward operating earnings that I published in 2007, but probably the most comprehensive piece was Long Term Evidence on the Fed Model and Forward Operating P/E Ratios from August 20, 2007.

To properly understand the price-to-forward operating earnings ratio, you have to recognize that operating earnings exclude a whole host of charges - what some observers correctly call "recurring non-recurring" charges. These include large and often quite regular losses that the companies deem, often on the thinnest basis, to be detached from their core business - even if the losses are directly related to their core business. Items like enormous asset writeoffs come to mind. Moreover, the "forward" means that these are year-ahead analyst estimates, which are typically substantially higher than trailing 12-month reported earnings.

Think of it this way. Suppose your poodle is 40% overweight. Someone sells you a scale where every pound shown on the dial represents 1.4 pounds of actual weight. Guess what? Your poodle will step on that scale, and the dial will pleasantly report that your dog is at its ideal weight. That may be comforting if you don't like to face reality, but the truth is, you've still got one sick puppy.

When you hear analysts say that the historical average P/E ratio is about 15, you have to recognize that this is the normal P/E based on trailing 12-month earnings after subtracting all writeoffs and other charges. Forward operating earnings are invariably much higher, and it turns out that the comparable historical norm, as I discuss in that 2007 piece, is only about 12. If you exclude the late 1990's bubble valuations, you get a historical norm closer to 11.5. The 1982 and 1974 market lows occurred at about 6 times estimated forward operating earnings.

A final observation is crucial. Current forward operating earnings estimates assume profit margins for the S&P 500 companies that are nearly 50% above their long-term historical norms. While we did observe such profit margins for a brief shining moment in 2007, profit margins are extraordinarily cyclical. Investors will walk themselves over a cliff if they price stocks as if profit margins, going forward, will be dramatically and sustainably higher than U.S. companies achieved in all of market history.

From hussmanfunds.com

Hoop

17-07-2010, 11:35 AM

Refer to my 30th June 2010 post #522 and chart (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7257-Daily-S-amp-P-500-INDEX-TRACKER/page35)

Chart update.
Since there is now an index rise occurring, therefore that 50% chance of a drop without a pullback is gone.
This makes the chances of a recovering rally double from 4% to 8% (Bulkowski)...although its positive news, 8% is still not good odds...and for the Bulkowski believers this would provide a second chance to sell out.

Pullbacks are dangerous as they can sometimes break back through key supports, enticing the unwary to re-enter ..then suddenly drop.

A continuing rally past 1120 would make me a little more optimistic that it would be a genuine rally....not another sucker rally type including the pullback behavioural feature.

Chart note the predicted red dotted line is not to scale.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP50029062010-1.png

.
16th July Update
Today's sudden drop is a typical completed pullback feature from a broken-out completed H&S formation..... and also... an end to a lower high rally ....the sucker type, a typical feature of a bear market. I think it is appropriate to highlight part of my previous post in red.

Therefore warning bells should be ringing loud and clear..

I think its beyond doubt now that the S&P500 is a bear market ..

Wisdom says ..bears do disappoint, bears can't count, bears have irrational and nasty tempers and capitulation events can occur before the bear trend ends. Statistics show (Bulkowski) that following the ending of an identified broken-out H&S formation pull back a sudden drop takes place....followed by an extremely strong bounce which can end the bear trend. Usually the sudden drop is severe and should be avoided.
Refer to my 30th June 2010 post #522 and chart for those details.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP50029062010-2.png