Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER [Archive] - Page 3

Hoop

18-07-2010, 01:31 PM

Hoop, after the 2002/3 bottom there was a similar death crossing of the 50/200 MA that came mid 2004 - about 18 months after the bottom.

Now we have a similar situation - Again about 18 months after the bottom.

Are you saying that this time its different? Or are we going to have to wait about 3 months to get back where we are now and still be higher than the last high by year end?

This time looks a bit different from the perspective that the swings are more extreme (probably due to higher volumes than in 2004) but the elapsed times look about the same. (Similar observation to Phaedrus's (in)famous NZ50 graph that suggests history repeats.)

Thoughts and analysis appreciated.

Hi Belg
yep similar situation....am I saying this one is different ? yeah probably... From my chart your example was not a H&S breakout so its outcome would be statistically different.

From my small chart below....I have identified one event which could be statistically similar to whats happening now... the H&S formation in 1997 with its break out in 1998 which resulted in a year long bear trend within the cyclic bull market. At that time it would've been hard to know whether to call a year long bear trend a cyclic event or not...in hindsight looking back into the past using a long term chart its easy to see that the 1998 bear was a trend.

However trend or cycle.. at the time the bear behavioural features are the same... there were 2 sucker rallies in that 1998 bear trend

Not knowing if this latest cyclic bull market has died or not leaves us with 2 references from my limited time chart below the 1997/1998 a bear trend within a continuing cyclic bull market similarity.... or the possible 2007 end of cyclic bull trend scenario. (no doubt a longer time frame would bring up more examples and a more data to forecast)

If it is the 1997/1998 similarity then history says this could be the last severe drop before the steep recovery ..this history duck lines up in the same row as the Bulkowski statistic duck ...so this is my favoured forecast.

S&P500 to be 1250 or higher by Xmas would be a better bet than...
The premature sudden end of a cyclic bull market and a retesting of the March 2009 bottom... which would be seen as unusual in a global economic recovery cycle and would show to be a leading indicator for some sort of "black swan" event to happen.

Hey Hoop ... watch this video .... DEATH CROSS

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/sp500deathcrossaff/?campaignid=3

Your challenge is to get your charts onto video with a commentary .... and get Vince or whoever to get them posted on sharetrader

Hi Winner
I sometimes watch Adam Hewison commentaries and they are interesting but not always accurate. His mention of the Death Cross (DC) as being very reliable is misleading to the lesser experienced TA audience he is catering towards. The name DC is over dramatic, and to many people it conjurers up that bad things are about to happen. DC's happen often in a cyclic bull market during corrections and also when a bull enters into an extended range bound situation. (see chart).
Often during a cyclic bull market when a Golden cross (GC) occurs quickly after the DC it shows another genuine rally is underway.
GC's are much more reliable in a bull market..I don't know if it is a TA practice, but I have found that if I can't draw an accurate trend line I use a GC point as a reference point to draw that trendline...it seems to work well for me.

Here's another thought for you Hoop.

Could the bearish behaviour have little to do with the overall market and much more to do with the new US banking regulations?

5 day comparision of S&P500 against the Banking index here http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=v,m100,v&a=vm,vm&c=%5Ebix

Last friday, the banking index down 4 percent while overall down just 0.5 percent.

Some of the big banks got hammered see here (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=s&s=BAC+BBT+BK+C+CMA+FITB+GS+JPM+KEY+PNC+STI+STT+USB +WFC+ZION) ... (this link wont make sense after monday)

BAC down 9.9%
C down 6.25%
JPM down 3.6%

Very few bucked the trend and even then not by much.

I haven't got the tools to strip the ^bix from the rest of the S&P500 but if you do I wonder whether we've hit a death cross at all.

(BTW - the 2 year chart of the ^bix vs. the ^gpsc shows just how much fun there was to be had trading the stocks in the ^bix. The 3 month chart shows interesting stuff too.)

Perhaps regulation is influencing the short term situation more now than before ..but these secondary factors and other factors we have not thought of are all factored in....so I don't think about it, I just make sure I'm aware of it happening.

Leaving a badly behaving sector out of the index and recalculate comparing it to all historical data is manipulation of figures..Belg:).... A naughty practice that Politicians are good at.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP50016072010-1.png

ananda77

18-07-2010, 04:04 PM

...really hopeless re: this kind of analysis so lets Mr. Chenard do the talking

stocktiming.com:

The Long Term Bull/Bear Model for the S&P 500

http://i26.tinypic.com/3503vo2.jpg

... monthly chart for S&P 500. At the end of January 2008, we had the red/blue trend lines crossing over which said we had started a bear market condition. On August 31st. 2009, there was a monthly upside cross-over signifying we started a new bull market condition

Monday, July 12th:

The Long Term Bull/Bear chart is below. Note the 1103 level, which has been a testing level for the previous two Bull Markets. In the past two weeks, the MACD Histogram dropped so we said that this was a similar pull-back profile like we saw during the past two Bull market tests of 1103 (note the gray/blue rectangles I drew showing showing the pullbacks). At the close on July 2nd, the red/blue trend lines had converged and touched just like the previous two Bull markets and it happened at the same 1103 testing level.
Last week we said, "For now, the up trend is still in place BUT it will be tested during the coming weeks and ----we could even see a capitulation drop with a quick bounce that would keep the red trend line from falling below the blue---- This could be a very challenging event for traders." Here we are on Monday, July 12th. and those comments haven't changed because the red/blue trend lines remained converged
At the same Bull Market test level in 1998, it took 3 months for the S&P's tick to push back above both the red and blue trend lines for a resumption of the Bull Market. Some of you may want to tell yourself that "history repeats itself and will repeat itself here as well". That could prove to be true, but it would also be "a speculation" as opposed to a condition with higher safety odds under the present circumstances. While the C-RSI had remained positive during the entire S&P 1103 testing time in 1998 AND 2004, this time, we have seen a negative C-RSI reading in 4 out of the last 8 months. So will the previous Bullish pattern repeat itself now?

Kind Regards

evilroyrule

19-07-2010, 12:26 PM

interesting thoughts belg. certainly the way my stocks opened today more of a weighing exercise than panic induced selling. simply refusing to go down (any further at least). intriguing week ahead.

Footsie

19-07-2010, 12:45 PM

given the price action, all traders, bulls and bears should be on alert.
the market is not really in a new trend yet. short term the bias is down, but there is still some upside momentum on a longer term scale - altough that is fading fast.

ananda77

20-07-2010, 05:58 AM

Trader Update -data point 19 July 2010:

...the SPX 500 managed to open higher but gains quickly evaporated; however the index nevertheless appears to stabilize after an intraday *1061
chances are, the current set-back from the July 13 High *1099 will extend down to *1058 (possibly as far down as the *1050 psych barrier) before a more bullish bias will resume IF the support zone is successfully defended

...a successful defense of the support zone would motivate the market to start another leg up with the June 19 High *1119 and potentially, the June 21 High *1131 as targets

...look for a bullish trade above *1070 – target *1130 – stop *1047

Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/s68395.jpg

Kind Regards

mattyroo

20-07-2010, 07:14 AM

A77, always interesting to read your take on the S&P. But, why not wait until the market has closed to give some analysis???? What's with the desperation to post something before the market has run the days course?

It makes your analysis look wrong headed sometimes when the market carries on doing something entirely different to what it has done prior to your post. It would also give more insight, if you had the full days market events in your posts, rather than half the day.

winner69

20-07-2010, 07:47 AM

Esp for Hoop but others might appreciate

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100719.htm

Hoop

20-07-2010, 11:00 AM

Esp for Hoop but others might appreciate

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100719.htm

Thxs for that Winner... yes..its is an academic post which I love to chew on and I admit its not everyone's cup of tea.

Amazingly that Hussman article you posted cleared up a problem I was tackling recently. My problem was charting the DOW** / 10 yr Tbills relationship which showed an inverse correlation up until 1982 then all of a sudden the relationship reverted 180 degrees to that of a normal correlation... At the time I couldn't find any decent quality info as to how and why this happened? Well that Hussman article showed me the path to explore now...it seems it was the FED Model influence at work here and it causing false market assumptions (forward)....read in between the lines its interesting to see Hussman thinks this correlation could be breaking back the other way again (another extra downward pressure on the Equity market as 10 yearT bills are expected to rise eventually).

** same result if I used S&P500 instead of the DOW

Also...for some strange reason the Q-ratio had fallen off my personal indicator list... I have now added that back on.

Geez ..Hussman has pointed out very convincingly how big secular downward pressures are operating on the American markets.

ananda77

20-07-2010, 05:13 PM

Trader Update -data point 19 July 2010:

...the SPX 500 managed to open higher but gains quickly evaporated; however the index nevertheless appears to stabilize after an intraday *1061
chances are, the current set-back from the July 13 High *1099 will extend down to *1058 (possibly as far down as the *1050 psych barrier) before a more bullish bias will resume IF the support zone is successfully defended

...a successful defense of the support zone would motivate the market to start another leg up with the June 19 High *1119 and potentially, the June 21 High *1131 as targets

...look for a bullish trade above *1070 – target *1130 – stop *1047

Kind Regards

...market internals developed constructively and NYSE Tick showed buying interest following at the SPX 500 *1061 intraday Low today
as a consquence, a bullish bias likely to develop above *1070/*1072

...downside risk high below *1064

Kind Regards

peat

20-07-2010, 06:25 PM

a bullish bias likely to develop above *1070/*1072

agree that in the short term this is a S/R level

ananda77

21-07-2010, 06:13 AM

Trader Update -data point 20 July 2010:

...the SPX 500 opened lower *1065 and immediately gapped down to intraday Low *1057; following the gap-down open, the market so far continuous to close the gap with market internals improving throughout the session

...the index is trading above short term resistance *1070/*1072 at present and if the strength continuous into the Close, the bullish reversal indicates a successful defense of the July 8 *1058/*1068 zone

...above the July 19 *1075 High, the market is likely to trade higher with the June 19 High *1119 and potentially, the June 21 High *1131 as targets

...look for a bullish trade above *1070 – target *1130 – stop *1047

Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/s68395.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

22-07-2010, 06:17 AM

Trader Update -data point 21 July 2010:

...the SPX has slipped back to unchanged levels this morning and appears content to consolidate Tuesdays bullish outside day from *1057

...until the July 16 break-down level *1092 is taken out, the market could range between the July 19 High*1074 and todays High *1089 but time spent inside these parameters should set the table for follow-through higher next week

...a breakout above *1089 should invite another leg higher with the June 19 High *1119 and potentially, the June 21 High *1131 as targets

Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/s68395.jpg

Kind Regards
>>>>>>>

h2so4

22-07-2010, 08:50 AM

Trader update: Bernanke testomy wasn't bullish, destinctly cautious, even bearish - market tanks over 1% - TNX price up, yield tanks below 3% - fightback beginning - could go anywhere from intraday low of 1065

.... gripping stuff, isn't it :)

Well belg you seem to have a positive outlook with the markets interpretation as being bad news. Some might think thats a little weird but I kinda like it.:)

ananda77

22-07-2010, 06:20 PM

Trader update: Bernanke testomy wasn't bullish, destinctly cautious, even bearish - market tanks over 1% - TNX price up, yield tanks below 3% - fightback beginning - could go anywhere from intraday low of 1065

.... gripping stuff, isn't it :)

David Rosenberg: The Meat Grinder Market

Fed's Bernanke: outlook unusually uncertain, Fed prepared to take further action... ...the Bull/Bear Conflict continues

Outcome: index crashes to around 900 - market cries out loud - political correctness (austerity) takes a hiding - Bens helis airborne again - everybody happy

Kind Regards

RRR

22-07-2010, 09:22 PM

Too complicated stuff for me to understand. I have been pouring my hard earned money since may and if it goes down the drain, so be it. I will call it risk taking. I will stick to good old p/e, p/b, roe, roce, div yield etc.

ananda77

23-07-2010, 07:45 AM

Trader Update -data point 22 July 2010:

...the SPX successfully defended the July 20 Low *1057 during Wednesday late collpase and has surged higher after this mornings data

... the impulsive advance broke the July 21 High *1089 as well as the July 16 break-down level *1092 to intraday High *1098 indicating a readiness in the market to take on the July High *1100 as a next up-side target

...based on todays price action, a similar break-out from the *1100 level is expected that should motivate the market into further upside with the June 19 High *1119 and potentially, the June 21 High *1131 as targets

Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/s68395.jpg

Kind Regards

Footsie

26-07-2010, 11:54 AM

short term daily indicators are back on BUY for the SP500

ananda77

27-07-2010, 08:27 AM

short term daily indicators are back on BUY for the SP500

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 26 July 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i32.tinypic.com/2q869h5.jpg -above wedge support with a positive bias-

Trader Update -data point 26 July 2010:

...the SPX moving in on the June 19 High *1119 after breaking the July High *1100 with market internals remaining constructive for further upside to take out *1119 initially; potential to extend to the June 21 High *1131 before risk of a corrective down move increases

...however, at this stage, it is expected that a brief corrective drive will confirm the July High *1100 before heading back towards trendline resistance current *1142 with potential to extend to the April 29 Low *1158 -IF- institutional buying levels increase to sustainable levels

...institutional selling http://i30.tinypic.com/6oeovc.jpg -down trend but institutional buying needs to increase for a sustainable long term advance

Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/s68395.jpg

Kind Regards

...please note: will be in Australia to September 9 unable to update for the entire period starting August 8

ananda77

28-07-2010, 08:17 AM

Trader Update -data point 27 July 2010:

...the SPX traded above *1119 to intraday *1121 but failed to challenge the June 21 High *1131; the index closed (-1)

...as a result. downside risk to affirm the July 13 High *1099 remains until the market is able to take out the June 21 High *1131

...above *1131, trendline resistance current *1142 with potential to extend to the April 29 Low *1158 come into view as up-side targets

Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/s68395.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

29-07-2010, 08:20 AM

Trader Update -data point 28 July 2010:

...the SPX appears to follow the script to affirm the July 13 High *1099 and so far has traded down to intraday Low *1103; chances are, the market may still look for further downside before heading higher to take out the June 21 High *1131 but *1099 is expected to limit the downside risk

...above *1131, trendline resistance current *1142 with potential to extend to the April 29 Low *1158 come into view as up-side targets

Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/s68395.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

30-07-2010, 09:56 AM

Trader Update -data point 29 July 2010:

...the market produced a bearish outside day in the SPX 500 index range *1116/*1093 and again closed above the *1100 at *1103

...the index at *1100 is at a crossroad and looking further out, the market would indicate readiness to take the high road:

-showing strength by trading above *1107 initially and closing above *1116

...on the flipside, the market would indicate readiness to take the low road:

-showing weakness trading lower towards the *1091 support and closing below the July 21 Low *1091

...the key decision rests on institutional buying/selling activity http://i32.tinypic.com/c5gyh.jpg which at present points to decreasing selling- and weak accumulation levels

…furthermore, Long Term Trending Fed.- and Foreign Liquidity Inflows http://i31.tinypic.com/rc0yna.jpg still remain in contraction territory and need to move into expansion for the current advance to become sustainable longer term and strong enough to take out the June Peak *1131

...nevertheless with the index still closing above the *1100 level, the *1090 support is expected to provide a short term floor and above *1131, trendline resistance current *1142 with potential to extend to the April 29 Low *1158 come into view as up-side targets

-position carefully-

Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/s68395.jpg

Kind Regards

Phaedrus

31-07-2010, 11:14 AM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP731.gif

ananda77

31-07-2010, 01:31 PM

...8 of 13 foreign indices, 5 of 9 SPX sectors, the DOW/TRAN/NYA, and the NYAD (market breadth) all in confirmed uptrends. Expecting the other indices to join in this uptrend in early August (Tony Caldaro)

Kind Regards

ananda77

03-08-2010, 08:12 AM

Trader Update -data point 2 August 2010:

...in a broad based advance, the SPX 500 index cleared the *1120 level to an intraday High *1127 setting the index up for the June Peak *1131/trendline resistance current *1142 challenge

...key levels to watch for weakness:

-falling back below the July 30 High *1116 initially and closing below the July 21 Low *1091

...key levels to watch for strength:

-closing above trendline resistance current *1142

...trading above *1142 is expected and will set the tone for further upside into the *1200 zone

Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/s68395.jpg

Kind Regards and hopefully see you in September

Phaedrus

03-08-2010, 08:44 AM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP83.gif

trackers

03-08-2010, 09:22 AM

Wow first green since April (1/3 of a year), been a long time between drinks...

Phaedrus

03-08-2010, 10:15 AM

Is that the green light for buying, or a skull pulling out the last of it hair?In actual fact, it is a TA development of the Rorschach Inkblot Test. It means whatever you want it to mean. What do you see it as YK?

Hoop

03-08-2010, 11:25 AM

Refer to my 30th June 2010 post #522 and chart (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7257-Daily-S-amp-P-500-INDEX-TRACKER/page35)

Chart update.
Since there is now an index rise occurring, therefore that 50% chance of a drop without a pullback is gone.
This makes the chances of a recovering rally double from 4% to 8% (Bulkowski)...although its positive news, 8% is still not good odds...and for the Bulkowski believers this would provide a second chance to sell out.

Pullbacks are dangerous as they can sometimes break back through key supports, enticing the unwary to re-enter ..then suddenly drop.

A continuing rally past 1120 would make me a little more optimistic that it would be a genuine rally....not another sucker rally type including the pullback behavioural feature.

Chart note the predicted red dotted line is not to scale.

Closed up at 1126..back in Bull territory
S&P500 Market posted a genuine rally against the TA odds...I can live with that:)

...yes Hoop, you are right, unless the *1120/*1130 level eats dirt

Kind Regards

A77..Its eating dirt as we speak:cool:

ananda77

03-08-2010, 12:09 PM

A77..Its eating dirt as we speak:cool:

...yes Hoop. but still would not be without some sort of residual protection for a fully invested portfolio until the clay-ie area *1131/*1142 has dissolved; ...can not complain though about the bullish trade starting just above the *1070 level few weeks ago

Kind Regards

peat

08-08-2010, 10:42 PM

diagonal triangle

http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~peat/images/DiagonalTrianglesClubReport.pdf

peat

09-08-2010, 01:38 PM

traditionally these diagonals spike up to clear out the weak before their precipitous fall.

yeh the event could be anything , another tentacle of the GFC could pop up anywhere. we never expected Dubai, tho the PIGS were pretty obvious.

Hoop

10-08-2010, 10:52 AM

Hmmm...interesting Peat....Yep a diagonal triangle...don't see these babies every day of the week do you:)...the rising wedge formation which is rather unreliable is rare enough and that's without the rare EW involved in it.

I have been wondering about my Head & Shoulder formation breakout and subsequent pullback in progress postings. To date this current pullback has gone a lot higher than I thought possible without turning into a continuation recovery. The 1130 is the point when the pullback starts eating dirt. 1130 is an important resistance level. Above this 1130 level the bear market trend weakens out as the rally forms a higher high ..an uptrend line can be drawn and gives confirmation that the latest rally could be genuine and not another sucker type.

Peat that identified DT is yet another string of confirmations that the Bear downtrend may not over yet.

An Interesting post

..so investors are warned that the S&P 500 is still in Bear Market mode.

traditionally these diagonals spike up to clear out the weak before their precipitous fall.

yeh the event could be anything , another tentacle of the GFC could pop up anywhere. we never expected Dubai, tho the PIGS were pretty obvious.

Shanghai my leading sharemarket index has turned upwards (end of June) and some asian markets + Germany are still in Bull mode. European markets are tending bullish but very fragile.. The American markets seem to be about 3 months behind now.Australia has a similar formation to the SP500but it doesn't meet the DT rules but it has a bullish double bottom look about it and NZ has a favourable short term uptrend...but both markets are still bears.

So...maybe the Bad News could be more local such as an American economy double dip recession becoming a reality. Remember USA is cot case as well as the PIIGS..

peat

10-08-2010, 04:14 PM

bond markets are alerting as well

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Bears-bond-with-Treasuries-pd20100810-86T6C?OpenDocument&src=kgb

“Declines of this magnitude very often presage the onset of bear markets and recessions. Typically, equities and then economists are late to the game. Nothing we are seeing is any different from the past, at least on this score. What is key to note is that the bond market is the tail that wags the stock market’s dog – it leads.”

and the forex markets have change direction dramatically this week as well.... all looking like somethings about to happen if you ask me.

peat

11-08-2010, 11:19 AM

some opportunities for bears last night.... I got some
but Bernanke came to the rescue hahah. not only does he have a helicopter but he has the Cavalry riding with him as well!

last nights fall was actually the break of a smaller scale rising wedge as well. which retraced back to its starting point (back to test)

peat

12-08-2010, 08:43 AM

diagonal triangle

wedge truly broken now

but what is worth mentioning at this (supposedly late but not according to this) stage is that if you read the link I posted on how Jeffrey Kennedy likes to play the DT then he would only be shorting it (approximately ) now as it has just passed the 4th wave - which is what he waits for as confirmation that the move is happening. Theoretically the whole triangle will be retraced so that leaves up to another 80 points left. This would require a 46 point stop though so risk reward is a bit marginal but ok I guess.

Lets see.

peat

12-08-2010, 11:21 AM

even Tony Robbins is preaching the shift
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/11/how-to-weather-the-econom_n_677769.html

long video but hes really talking things down (and he's a positive kind of guy)

evilroyrule

13-08-2010, 12:01 PM

here comes the hammer, hammer, whooaaaaaaa, they put me in a mix.

Hoop

30-08-2010, 12:17 PM

Attached is a more complex chart showing the successful (bad) outcome of the rising wedge formation... Peat gave the warning on the 9th August....the rising wedge fitted all the EW rules so deemed the name diagonal triangle from the EW guys.

Bulkowski says that 70% of the rising wedge down-breaks fall less than 20%.
EW guys say the fall back to the baseline of where it all started.

and

H&S formations with a pullback feature only 8% fall less than 5%.

which all may result in an area below the 1040 support/neck line

..Conflict...:confused:

If the market falls below the 1040 support and also the neckline around the same area (1040). chances are that it may get ugly...however I said that in my previous posts and got caught in a bear trap:p.

..Also (not marked on the chart below)...Maybe the H&S formation hasn't yet ended and is going from simple (one shoulder and neck each side) to complex formation which involves 2 or more shoulders and necks......

As the market is meandering in between the 1130 -1040 zone I guess 1040 could be a bottom Belg..then again ;)..

The last few months the S&P500 market has been hard for the chartist to fathom except they know that it is in bear market mode and bear markets often disappoint the long investor..even those with a medium amount of TA knowledge.

A good day on Friday but the bad news was it failed to go above the Flash/gap resistance line 1065 which could be a worry for the pessimists..then again an optimist would say it is reading itself for a gap up on Monday.

Bear markets are called bear cause the bears have unpredictable tempers and sometime it is against rational logic...so...Uncertainty reigns supreme....therefore any guess could be a good guess... eh?

Probably best to follow P's charts (I guess it will still be red).

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP50027082010.png

peat

30-08-2010, 12:33 PM

yeh I reduced shorts at 1040ish, we had a couple of hammers and several long lower wicks
but I'll be back in again short in a day or two - the bad stuff aint going away

look at these returns and std dev for SP500 , NASDAQ , and a few random companies April 2005 - April 2010 abysmal

peat

01-09-2010, 02:01 PM

i think part of the problem is that there is an incentive to make extreme forecasts/projections/scenarios because these gain more media attention, and raise both the analysts and their companies profile.

that said, it is true that markets do move to extremes as the fear/greed cycles play out.

Hoop

01-09-2010, 02:18 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A noted bearish strategist said Thursday that the S&P 500 will tumble to 450 because conditions in the U.S. are "much, much worse" than during the lost decade in Japan. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-to-hit-450-socgen-strategist-warns-2010-08-26?siteid=yhoof)

Sheesh ... Some people are soooo negative.

Nobody in their right mind can take Albert Edwards seriously...the guy is one of the worlds greatest permabears..he's been preaching the S&P 500 crash since 1996.

Footsie

01-09-2010, 03:33 PM

given the bearish sentiment, the amount of press about DOW to sub 5,000 etc.
I think we have a perfect set up for a contrarian Sep/Oct rally.

Sentiment is telling you everyone is expecting a big sell off in Sept........ well that's usually a good indicator it will do the opposite.
Maybe the AUssie and chinese numbers today will spark the US into action.

evilroyrule

01-09-2010, 04:07 PM

hello all, hoopy, belg, winner, tracks et al, :mellow:

what has put the fire under the asx today. first day of spring? over sold? people fleeing bonds? 10/1 on a paki no-ball?

evilroyrule

02-09-2010, 07:42 AM

woo-hoo. spot on belg. dow up 250 points this morning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Corporate

02-09-2010, 08:20 AM

September came a month early. If this is October, then we're off and running.

belgarion why is october supposed to be favourable?

winner69

03-09-2010, 09:03 PM

peat

03-09-2010, 09:38 PM

Interesting if he was convinced you'd think he would make more billions

instead he's throwing his toys coz its a 'treacherous and volatile market'

:p
well yeh it is.

quite liked his explanation of the volatility
it explains well the megaphone patterns.

Hoop

04-09-2010, 01:23 PM

This guy who has made billions is to wind down his hedge fund because ....' .... while Pellegrini concedes that buoyant corporate earnings could prop up the market for a little while longer, “I remain convinced that the party has come to an end and equities will retrace further.”'

Interesting if he was convinced you'd think he would make more billions

Yes W69 treacherous..up and down ..bull traps, bear traps, false pattern breakouts, you name it its happened within the last 9 months (all ords) last 6 months SP500..

Now I know why this Pellegrini guy is so good..He leaves the bum biting market that he can't make a profit out of, cashes up and gives it all back to his clients/shareholders and moves on...SIR RON BRIERLEY please read that article..and :LEARN.!!!!!!!!!!!

instead he's throwing his toys coz its a 'treacherous and volatile market'
:p
well yeh it is.

quite liked his explanation of the volatility
it explains well the megaphone patterns.

Pellegrini throwing his toys ...In hindsight I wish I was smart enough to have that sometimes..:(.
Tough market..treacherous and volatile market'...ohhh yeahhh..I agree.
Sometimes when nothing seems to work one digs deeper and learns the complexities of life.
My simple charts have got complex as a result.

Megaphone patterns..good topic to bring up Peat.
Yes Megaphone patterns do make simple TA and trendy followers lives a misery as the chart lines meander up and down sometimes violently without any set pattern and if patterns or trend lines exist they are often falsely broken...hence the investor uncertainty to invest into a trap.

Understanding a megaphone pattern better known in this present environment as a broadening top as it has followed in the heals of an uptrend (big blue uptrend arrow) As it has had 4 touches it can still be a number of variants (5 touches is the orthodox type).
Broadening angles can confuse as after a while to the lesser knowledgeable people it seems that a crash or a ridiculous upswing must happen to complete the formation as the opposing lines disappear off the charts into + and - infinity.

When an broadening top angle is very steep there is an excellent chance it will fail.
How to identify a failed megaphone (broadening)

With no foresight it is best to watch key points..
often in the future looking back to a failed broadening top it fails at a point when it last touched a high point angle ( see chart- 1130 is an important level) 1130 break above could either signal an end or a continuation to touch the top angle at say for example 1220 around October or November...therefore be careful around the 1130 level and if the SP500 takes off be careful around the 1220 resistance or the future top angle point wherever that might be.
On my chart I said 1130 is an interesting point because the market failed to rise above that resistance level to go forward to touch the top angle...this indicates that 1130 is a very powerful resistance level or the megaphone pattern has failed ..we won't know until after the 1130 level is breached.

As you can see the chart is complex but using an more advance method of trends and formation techniques you can see that it solves a lot of uncertainties and that TA is still working.
Notice the buy points Green arrows at the touching of the bottom angle line of the Megaphone (broadening top formation) ad the sells (red arrows when the index touches the top angle line.

Also of interest are

...the retest of the previously broken purple normal downtrend line
...the primary 1040 support line which is holding rather well and are keeping the bear at bay.
...Sometimes but not always the u shaped volume pattern is a distinct broadening top feature...I have marked this in as it seems to be about 60% formed ..does this mean that the megaphone is 60% through its life??/..maybe....this is something else to watch for.
...Gap analysis is a powerful tool invisible support/resistance points appear so watch the 1090 it could be a powerful support line.
...the 1010 support line ..if this breaks expect the index to touch the megaphone bottom angle line.
...ditto the other way if the 1130 resistance line breaks, expect the index climb to touch the megaphone top angle line.
...The black dotted unconfirmed downtrend line ..note ow the fridays close is near touching this line...respect of this trendline will confirm this as a real downtrend line, therefore a short term bearish look.
....Not marked on my chart but visible are the bullish long tailed candlesticks each touching the 1040 support line that Peats was mentioning at the end of August. He analysed the market was turning and changed his trading strategy..I suspect for a good profit... congratulations Peat:)
... oh as well...As this stockchart came with the PPO and RSI indicators as default features it was interesting to see they confirmed some buy/sell signals as well. (coloured arrows)

So in conclusion the TA charting with seen in a more complex light the uncertainties of the market seem to fade out...it seems the market is now bullish up towards the next key point that being the 1130. but keep a careful eye on that black dotted unconfirmed downtrend line(black circle).

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP50006092010.png

STRAT

05-09-2010, 01:44 AM

Geez Hoop , That chart makes my eyes hurt and my brain numb :scared:

Hoop

07-09-2010, 11:29 AM

Sorry Strat ..try this one :)

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6952-NZSX50-Good-News!&p=318569#post318569 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6952-NZSX50-Good-News%21&p=318569#post318569)

Chart wise Japan is in a cyclic bear market cycle and is the major stockmarket cot case
DOW, S&P500, Nasdq, France are still in bear trends.

Seems FTSE100 has caught up and with NZX50 it has too reverted to Bull market.

STRAT

08-09-2010, 10:38 PM

ananda77

09-09-2010, 05:49 PM

...looks like the SPX 500 will be moving higher at least to test major resistances in the VIX (inverted scale) and Institutional Core Index and the Nasdaq has an eleven year old overhead resistance level to test

...on the SPX 500, a Close above *1105 ideally up intraday from the *1080 trendline level on the hourly, would be a first indication that further upside is likely to test the 200-day MA *1115 with potential to reach towards the Aug Peak *1129

...failure to break through the Aug Peak *1129 will set up the index for further downside with the July Low *1011 taken out and diving through the *1000 Psych barrier into the medium to low 900 level

Kind Regards

peat

09-09-2010, 09:37 PM

I'm following this guy (in the twitter sense) at the moment.
see what you think , he's not verbose , wont take long.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com/

he just said "various currencies and equity indices continue
to give divergent and conflictual signs ... trends are
undergoing a major transition..."
heh I deliberately havent quoted his direction , you'll have to find it out yourself ;)

peat

10-09-2010, 03:41 AM

cant resist selling into these numbers with 11 in front of them....

ananda77

10-09-2010, 12:48 PM

...the SPX 500 posted a break-out above the September 1 High *1105 to a intraday High *1110 to close 5 up at *11104; weak as this break appears, it's still a break-out which could set up the index for the expected test of the 200-day MA current *1115 and the August Peak 1129 with potential to reach as high as *1140 before risk of a possible reversal sets in

...since the index closed below *1105, there is weakness within this advance but unless trading takes the index below the *1080 level, the index will continue to trade higher to the expected targets

...failure to break through the Aug Peak *1129 will set up the index for further downside with the July Low *1011 taken out and diving through the *1000 Psych barrier into the medium to low 900 level

Kind Regards

ananda77

11-09-2010, 10:36 AM

Welcome back A77. If we don't break the 200 MA resistance level soon my prediction of 1250 by year end is just about out the window.

Thanks Belgarion

...the SPX 500 still struggles to challenge the 200-day MA and although up on the Close, could not extend beyond yesterdays High *1110; this ongoing weak undercurrent points to an increasing likelyhood of another test of the *1080/*1075 level early next week

...a successful defense of that level would motivate the market to rally towards the expected targets as outlined in the two previous updates

....failure to exceed the *1129/*1140 level would return the index to a negative outlook with targets outlined in the two previous updates

Kind Regards

peat

11-09-2010, 12:46 PM

surely not!
history never repeats
(I tell myself before I go to sleep)

winner69

11-09-2010, 05:32 PM

TIME TO BUY US STOCKS

NEVER BEEN CHEAPER SINCE 1990

STOCK VALUATIONS AT 20 YEAR LOW

DON'T MISS THIS ONCE IN A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY

From chart of the day

Chart of the Day

Today's chart illustrates how the recent rise in earnings as well as the recent stock market correction has impacted the current valuation of the stock market as measured by the price to earnings ratio (PE ratio). Generally speaking, when the PE ratio is high, stocks are considered to be expensive. When the PE ratio is low, stocks are considered to be inexpensive. From 1900 into the mid-1990s, the PE ratio tended to peak in the low to mid-20s (red line) and trough somewhere around seven (green line). The price investors were willing to pay for a dollar of earnings increased during the dot-com boom (late 1990s), surged even higher during the dot-com bust (early 2000s), and spiked to extraordinary levels during the financial crisis (late 2000s). As a result of the recent spike in corporate earnings as well as relatively lower stock prices (e.g. the S&P 500 currently trades 9% off its April 2010 highs) the PE ratio has dropped to a level that has not existed since the end of 1990.

Hoop

11-09-2010, 07:43 PM

That chart of the day series should be banned. :p

winner69

11-09-2010, 08:22 PM

That chart of the day series should be banned. :p

No no no Hoop ..... Belg and the like need some cheering up

Hoop

11-09-2010, 09:18 PM

I have written this post to cheer up Belg + others and you too Winner :):)

Apparently history has it that if you average the PE Ratio of the S&P500 during the other times of Low inflation/low interest environments LILI (as the USA is experiencing now) the reported PE Ratio figure comes out at 22.5.

Looking at Winners chart of the day post... the reported PE looks like about 17 and the close of S&P500 on Friday at 1110 gives an estimated reported profit of 1110/17 = $63.
Now we know that the 30th June reported profit was $64...so the chart of the day is accurate because we know that chart works off reported events at the time.

Now the question!!! ...Is the S&P 500 overvalued or undervalued??....research shows using history as a reference that during times of LILI the S&P500's PE Ratio is averaging 22.5........

.....so using the theorical calculations EPS x PE = Index... we get 64 x 22.5 = 1440

Therefore my valuation of S&P500 for this present LILI environment is 1440 therefore at 1110 the S&P500 is significantly undervalued.

Interesting to note...is that there are variables at work...contrary to belief.. high inflation or high deflation and interest rates are high or negative respectively pulls down the values of the PE Ratio to below 10 and during the height of the equity market boom times the LILI environment usually operates in raising the values of PE ratios to above 20. If you don't believe me don't recite the media to me..go study up the facts and figures....actually look at Winner 69 chart of the day during the mid 1970's to mid 1980's when high Inflation and high interest rates existed HIHI... the PE Ratio then was around the 10 mark or less for a decade.

Having just had a GFC the investor uncertainty and shyness towards equities is very noticeable and probably the reason why the S&P500 is so undervalued.

Will the S&P500 correct to its valued figure of 1440? ...perhaps.. even with stagnant zero growth and continued LILI going into 2011 the S&P500 index value will still be 1440 because nothing has changed.

However if company profit growth returns and the FED bumps up the interest rate to control inflation it is possible there could be no increase in the S&P500 index valuation (the paradox) but the investors may feel better and start buying in and push up the S&P500 to a point that it is fully valued or overvalued..

If say (hypothetically) that next year investors push the S&P500 from todays 1110 to 1440 because they are very confident with the post recovery big increases in company profit growth from say (hypothetically) todays $64 to $90... that scenario would see the reported PE ratio fall lower than now (paradox).... 1440 / 90 = reported PE Ratio 16...however, depending on the extent of the switch from a LILI to a HIHI environment, the 1440 in the post recovery next year at a PE ratio of 16 may be fully valued or overvalued. That overvaluation occurs because in a HIHI environment the average PE ratio is around 10 or less

The paradox is that the S&P500 may be fairly valued at 1440 now under stagnant ecomonic conditions but next year in much better times that 1440 may then be considered overvalued.

You can see now how the layman and especially the media would not understand how this could be possible.

ananda77

14-09-2010, 03:35 PM

...the SPX 500 trades now above the 200-day MA *1115 but price action remains unimpulsive so far just below the *1130 mark
...as a result the index remains vulnerable to a brief shake-out move from overhead resistance *1130 down to affirm 3-month trendline support *1093, possibly reaching lower intraday into the *1080 area
...a successful defense will motivate the market to challenge the August Peak *1129 with potential to head higher towards the *1140 mark
...failure at the *1140 level or failing *1075 would throw the index back towards a negative bias with the July Low *1011 at stake and potential to break through the *1000 Psych down into the *900 area

Kind Regards

ananda77

15-09-2010, 08:16 AM

...the SPX 500 continues to grind higher but remains vulnerable to a corrective shake-out below the August Peak *1129 as price action has been unable to keep up with short term upward momentum

...although the market could drive the index into the *1129/*1140 zone intraday severly overbought momentum would impair the index to reach higher towards the projected longer term targets current *1169 and *1221 respectively

...support points for a successful execution of a brief set-back would be:

-the 200-day MA current *1115
-1-month support current *1103
-3-month trendline support *1093

...more downside into the *1080 level at this stage would already demonstrate weakness and a potential early return to negative sentiment

Kind Regards

ananda77

16-09-2010, 09:34 AM

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 15 September 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i51.tinypic.com/wjguns.jpg advance showing weakness with C-RSI below 5 (translates into historically high failure rates)

Trader Update -data point 15 September 2010:

...the SPX 500 recovered from early weakness but trading remains uncomitted below the August Peak *1129

...although on the NYSE, the DVOL made a new Low which opens up the possibility for the VIX to move below its Support
http://i56.tinypic.com/2zpqxqs.jpg the VIX is building a positive divergence
http://i51.tinypic.com/30a8l1y.jpg ahead of Fridays option expiration

...as a result, a brief shake-out move down to the remaining two support points:

-1-month support current *1103
-3-month trendline support *1093

would not come as a surprise

...a successful defense in the support range would motivate the market to drive the index higher towards *1164 as the next upside target

...institutional selling http://i55.tinypic.com/2ym9dae.jpg downtrend but the NYA algorithm is at an extreme high level

Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/s68395.jpg

Kind Regards

ananda77

17-09-2010, 09:53 AM

Nice to see the index opens down but ends way above the open. Needs a bit of good news to break current resistance levels tho. That said, with the short term bullish behaviour, I'd not feel confident that selling into the current rally is a good idea as we could punch higher.

Trader Update -data point 16 September 2010:

…the SPX 500 closed unchanged *1125 after drifting sideways to lower for the day unable to surpass the September 14 High *1127 or the August Peak *1129 -again for the third day in a row-

...the fact that the index keeps on banging its head against overhead resistance *1130 with no apparent headway suggests the risk of a shake-out move remains high, the view clearly supported by negative divergent market internals
as a matter of fact, this whole price action has the definite look of the two failed rallies during June and July

-be on the ALERT for bulltraps sucking in buyers into a 'long awaited' break-out- and short if aggressive enough

...support points for a brief shake-out:

in the *1108/*1094/*1083 level

...a successful defense in the support level would motivate the market to reach out to *1169 as the next upside target

Kind Regards

Hoop

17-09-2010, 09:55 AM

ananda77

17-09-2010, 11:06 AM

Agree..
Most of the global equity markets have now pushed their indexes through primary resistances to resume their Bull market trends. US equity markets have been the laggards since the early 2009 bottom ..the time to resume their bull trend must be getting closer now.

...historic data on SPX 500 performance during the next 1_2_3_4_5 trading sessions following September 'Triple Witching' option expiration

http://i53.tinypic.com/2m68myc.png

...consequently a 'long trade' following option expiration is historically against the odds

Kind Regards

Hoop

17-09-2010, 11:49 AM

...historic data on SPX 500 performance during the next 1_2_3_4_5 trading sessions following September 'Triple Witching' option expiration

http://i53.tinypic.com/2m68myc.png

...consequently a 'long trade' following option expiration is historically against the odds

Kind Regards

All the more reason to be bullish...

Triple witching week for options expirations starts in the 3rd week of every quarter (March June Sept December) so the first trading day was last Monday... today is session 4

It seems the S&P500 is going against the historic odds with 1 session to go ....

ananda77

17-09-2010, 01:23 PM

Hoop

17-09-2010, 08:58 PM

Hoop,

...Friday September 17 will be ‘Triple Witching‘ (stock index futures, stock index options and stock options all expire on the 3rd Friday of March, June, September and December of every year)

...the table shows Septembers historical option expiration dates (‘Trigger Date‘ since 1990) and the SPY‘s (S&P 500 SPDR.) respective performance over the course of the then following 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 and 5 sessions, assumed one went long on close of September’s triple witching session in the past (like this time on close of Friday, September 17)

Kind Regards

Apologies.. My Error, Ananda.

There is a similar chart for triple witching week...thought your posted table looked rather red as the triple witching week is overall positive.

Been an interesting few months...eh ...some of those sure odds have failed and caught me a couple of times..never seen so many false actions.... traps both ways...etc ...Its been a very difficult market to assess lately..

..Remember back in July, I said 1130 was the primary level, above it is bull territory/ below it belongs to the bears... and I would not be happy until that 1130 level was cracked.... since then we have seen two tests and now at 1125 it is the 3rd test at this resistance level...so with the odds for a decline next week, the odds are saying we will witness a bearish triple top formation...If the S&P500 fails to make it past 1130ish level then the TW post week is looking real good for you shorters.

..but....

..a worry for you Ananda going into the TW Friday..... With the global markets presently running at 1+% up today and most major markets having recently broken through their primary resistances and are back in bull territory once again...if this up day spills over into the US market, the S&P500 will also bust through its primary resistance of 1130....a very bullish sign

That 1130 level has so far turned out to be a very strong level...so..if it becomes a support level Friday....perhaps the present up momentum + the 1130 maybe support could be stronger than the TW post week... but...who knows, it may be just another bull trap...

Life can be so unpredictable...eh..... so Ananda are you still going to be in boots (shorts) in all..if the 1130 level is cracked ;).

Big interesting day coming up for the S&P500..

ananda77

18-09-2010, 01:33 AM

..a worry for you Ananda going into the TW Friday..... With the global markets presently running at 1+% up today and most major markets having recently broken through their primary resistances and are back in bull territory once again...if this up day spills over into the US market, the S&P500 will also bust through its primary resistance of 1130....a very bullish sign

That 1130 level has so far turned out to be a very strong level...so..if it becomes a support level Friday....perhaps the present up momentum + the 1130 maybe support could be stronger than the TW post week... but...who knows, it may be just another bull trap...

Life can be so unpredictable...eh..... so Ananda are you still going to be in boots (shorts) in all..if the 1130 level is cracked ;).

Big interesting day coming up for the S&P500..

...no worries Hoop, since I am always fully invested, only lightly hedged going into Friday but already had one increase at SPX 500 *1137 and further action depends on the Close

Kind Regards

peat

18-09-2010, 05:17 AM

at this stage :mellow: it would seem removing stops was a good thing (as they were at 1132)
blowoffs can be a bit scary to ride through , but often they are significant turning points

Hoop

18-09-2010, 11:46 AM

Ananda
The shorters must be happier today going into the weekend...

The S&P500 closed 1 point up at 1125. The test to break though the 1130 (1131) primary resistance level failed earlier today with an early morning intra-day high touching 1131 before declining. No TW expiry blow off in the last hour ...not expected as the TW Friday trading rules changed a number of years ago now.

Candlesticks have bearish tails ..but no shooting star on the Stockchart.com chart I used.

Belg ...yes still could surprise...shorters covering if the index some how manages to go above 1130.. its not that far away is it?... going against the odds though.

I'll be watching next week with interest. Apparantly, there is US$ 1.5 trillion sitting on the sidelines I wonder where that trigger point is

1132 1135 ???? .. Belg.. watch rise? in bond rate (show selling activity?)

ananda77

18-09-2010, 01:56 PM

...not much needs to be added to yesterdays update apart from the question: What Is Holding The Market Back? and amongst other news, one item surfacing into reality space is the fact that the Feds QE strategies have failed miserably and will keep on failing to jumpstart the US economy on the back of a dead consumer

Welcome to US of Austerity
http://www.leap2020.eu/geab-n-47-is-available-the-global-systemic-crisis-spring-2011-welcome-to-the-united-states-of-austerity-towards-a-very_a5168.html

...other than that, the market remains subject to a brief shake-out to clear short term overbought conditions

Kind Regards

winner69

18-09-2010, 08:03 PM

Hey Hoop ..... another chart of the day .... we still have another 200 plus days of choppt market conditions

Chart of the Day
Today's chart illustrates rallies that followed massive bear markets. For today's chart, a 'massive' bear market is defined as a decline of greater than 50%. Since the Dow's inception in 1896, there have been only three bear markets whereby the Dow declined more than 50% (early 1930s, late 1930s until early 1940s, and during the very recent financial crisis). Today's chart also adds the rally that followed the dot-com bust during which the Nasdaq declined 78%. The current Dow rally has followed a path that is fairly similar to that of post-massive bear market rallies. The initial surge of the current rally lasted nearly 300 trading days and has been trading flat/choppy ever since. If the current rally were to continue to follow the post-massive bear market rally pattern, the current choppy phase would continue for another 200+ trading days.

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20100917.htm?T

peat

19-09-2010, 12:32 PM

Bonds may be overpriced historically and I dont disagree at all with the implications of the article in respect of buying long term bonds (not so much re stocks) but we should be quite clear - they are not an investment bubble!
Dont forget that people buy bonds with real money so they wont be forced to deleverage when they come round and realise their mistake - at the return of inflation - in the same way that margin share traders or property investors can be squeezed. They will of course be poorer and their returns will be woefully low but should they choose to they can hold till maturity.

ananda77

19-09-2010, 05:44 PM

...maybe Bernankes days as Helicopter Fed Head are numbered as dissent within the Fed keeps boiling up to the surface

The Paradox of the Zero Bound
Bill Hester, CFA http://www.hussmanfunds.com/rsi/zerobound.htm

After more than a decade of Greenspan's Put, and Bernanke's do-what-ever-it-takes attitude in protecting investors from taking appropriate losses, investors have been conditioned to believe that the Fed has their back. This faith in the Fed also must be playing a role in the valuation of the stock market, considering that investors are pricing stocks nearly 40 percent above long-term valuation levels (using normalized earnings) during an economic recovery that is by almost any measure lagging far behind the typical post war recovery.

That conditioned faith that investors have in the Fed is what makes Bullard's paper so interesting and timely. He is essentially suggesting that the Fed's promise to investors to keep rates low for a long period of time – something stock investors typically cheer over the near-term – will in the end increase the probability that the Fed at some point will find itself powerless to the expectations of the private sector and financial market participants.

...in line with a previous paper:

Welcome to US of Austerity
http://www.leap2020.eu/geab-n-47-is-...ery_a5168.html

Kind Regards

Hoop

19-09-2010, 10:20 PM

[QUOTE=winner69;319769]Hey Hoop ..... another chart of the day .... we still have another 200 plus days of choppt market conditions

Chart of the Day
Today's chart illustrates rallies that followed massive bear markets. For today's chart, a 'massive' bear market is defined as a decline of greater than 50%. Since the Dow's inception in 1896, there have been only three bear markets whereby the Dow declined more than 50% (early 1930s, late 1930s until early 1940s, and during the very recent financial crisis). Today's chart also adds the rally that followed the dot-com bust during which the Nasdaq declined 78%. The current Dow rally has followed a path that is fairly similar to that of post-massive bear market rallies. The initial surge of the current rally lasted nearly 300 trading days and has been trading flat/choppy ever since. If the current rally were to continue to follow the post-massive bear market rally pattern, the current choppy phase would continue for another 200+ trading days.[QUOTE]

Yes I've seen that chart investors should take note of this chart...If an investor can think logically (forget the Media theorised BS) the slight decline/trading range 300 - 400 day pause does make perfect sense. My #654 post (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7257-Daily-S-amp-P-500-INDEX-TRACKER/page44)explains the reasoning for this..remember this pause happens in the economic recovery phase when company profits increase rapidly...

If you are media brainwashed you would ask the question..."It doesn't make sense..Why isn't the sharemarket index responding to these increased company profits??" You would look in the papers to seek out a reason..oh yes. I see ..a worry here and a worry there, maybe this will happen, maybe that will happen, and oh yes the country's broke and people are grizzling about higher taxes and incentives/subsidies have ended (Austerities)..blah ...blah..

But the real reason is share market mechanics in the process of correcting to the new environment..that from LILI Low Inflation Low Interest which allows for a higher PE Ratio to exist (av 22) ...and now there is acamp that believe that the threat of increasing interest rates to prevent future inflation so the PE ratio adjusts and falls as a result or if you believe the "permabear" economists camp that of deflation + whatever interest rate which also has the same effect so the PE Ratio again adjusts and falls.

After reading the above paragraph... imagine now this false logic at work...we won't invest in the stock market until the economy come right...

Bonds are networked in......as the equities PE Ratio falls which is happening now the dividend yield will rise, interest rate rises as well (remember LILI/HIHI environments) and those holding zero+% interest bonds will at some future point be asking themselves "what was I thinking of, buying into an instrument with such little yield?"

EDIT....During an Equities Secular Bear Market Cycle the annualised PE Ratio has the occasional temporary correction upwards but it is always in a long term downtrend.

Ananda...the S&P500 is undervalued at present within its favourable LILI environment...deflation is the media's current topic of worry at the moment because the GFC has been thrashed to death... but at this point of time overall annual deflation does not exist, and the media conjecture should be taken very very lightly, if at all.

With some of these authors it sometimes pays to back read to discover how good they are: 15April 2009. Hmmm.. if they were smart they would've deleted this one
http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-34-is-available!-Summer-2009-The-international-monetary-system-s-breakdown-is-underway_a3129.html (http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-34-is-available%21-Summer-2009-The-international-monetary-system-s-breakdown-is-underway_a3129.html)
oops..that didn't happen:mellow:
520 days later ..

ananda77

21-09-2010, 06:38 AM

Trader Update -data point 20 September 2010:

...the SPX finally took out the August Peak *1129 decisively with price action as high as *1140 intraday
market internals show a broadbased, bullish advance and as a result, there is scope for the index to move higher targeting *1146 or the *1150 (January 2010 Peak) Psych Barrier

...however, bearish divergences developing in the later stages of the current advance point to an imminent shake-out with likely support points currently sitting at

-*1111
-*1107
-the September 7 Low *1090

...a successful defense of that support range should invite a second rally with short term overhead resistance *1167 as target

...failure in the *1150/*1167*area will leave the market vulnerable to a break targeting the July Low *1011 with potential to trade below the *1000 Psych Barrier into the *900 level or a 960 in the next months ahead

Kind Regards

evilroyrule

21-09-2010, 05:59 PM

any idea why this didnt translate to the asx today? we seem to have been doing our won thing for a while now

ananda77

21-09-2010, 07:42 PM

any idea why this didnt translate to the asx today? we seem to have been doing our won thing for a while now

...not quite sure, but seems like the S&P ASX 200 has been ahead of the US indexes and seems now to continue to follow them again

Kind Regards

peat

21-09-2010, 07:53 PM

any idea why this didnt translate to the asx today? we seem to have been doing our won thing for a while now

the aussie $ is quite high
could be a factor
usd isnt so strong at the mo.

ananda77

22-09-2010, 07:54 AM

Trader Update -data point 21 September 2010:

...the SPX 500 continued higher with a test of the May 18 High *1149, the move unconfirmed by todays market internals
still, above the September High *1131, the index is well positioned to stretch higher to overhead resistance current *1169

...however, developing bearish divergences, especially a VIX refusing to break below its support, point to an imminent shake-out with likely support points currently sitting at

-*1111
-*1107
-the September 7 Low *1090

...a successful defense of that support range should invite a second rally with short term overhead resistance *1167 as target
on an intermarket theme, oil remains unconfirming of the crrent bullish sentiment in equities

...failure in the *1150/*1167*area will leave the market vulnerable to a break targeting the July Low *1011 with potential to trade below the *1000 Psych Barrier into the *900 level or a 960 in the next months ahead

Kind Regards

ananda77

23-09-2010, 11:26 AM

...www.stocktiming.com: -data point 22 September 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i52.tinypic.com/wly58z.png -three-year resistance overhead

Trader Update -data point 22 September 2010:

...the SPX 500 managed a High of *1144 today then continued with yesterdays sell-off for a test of the September 17 High *1131
the *1131level remained under constant pressure throughout the session but held for now and the index closed down 4 *1134
as mentioned in yesterdays update, above the September High *1131, the index is well positioned to stretch higher to 3-month overhead resistance current *1169

...however, developing bearish divergences in the VIX

http://i51.tinypic.com/2my4scy.png

http://i54.tinypic.com/2cega5v.png

and still unable to break through support

http://i54.tinypic.com/dpfe6p.png

furthermore, the NYSE algorithm remains at an extreme high level and institutional selling leans towards increased selling http://i51.tinypic.com/a3e9w7.png

...as a consequence, the SPX 500 may well have posted a near term top, with a Close below the September 17 High *1131needed as confirmation

...failure to hold the *1131 level on a Close basis will increase the risk for the market to test the next support level current *1113

...a successful defense of that level would motivate the market to rally up towards the 3-month overhead resistance current *1169 into month end

Kind Regards

Hoop

23-09-2010, 04:12 PM

SHANGHAI COMPOSITE has turned (short term) negitive

Yes it has recently broken it's 2.5 month uptrend...and it hasn't gone un-noticed by me.......2565 is the bear/bull line it is 2715 atm

ananda77

24-09-2010, 10:32 AM

Trader Update -data point 23 September 2010:

…although the index displayed strength after the opening plunge down to intraday *1123 -impulsive as the rebound to unchanged levels was- the SPX 500 closed below the September 17 High *1131 and finished the session *1125

...on the 3-month daily, the index is now on its way to test the trendline current *1115 with potential to reach lower to *1110 to close the September 12 opening gap *1113

...looking at the 1-year weekly, since the up-move to *1149 has still to be confirmed for longer term sustainability, a buying impulse off *1084 would do the job nicely

however, looking at the very short 30-min daily, the index needs to severe trendline support *1125 (the Close for today!!!) for the market to engage into this potential -it'll be good in the long run-

...judging by the strength of todays intraday rebound, if traders failed to short the index *1149, shorting now *1125 is risky business unless the market moves away from this level impulsively

at the same time, playing the long side at this point remains now equallly risky

Kind Regards

evilroyrule

25-09-2010, 07:17 AM

:oh my lord!!!!!!!:mellow: i wls say that was a decisive bust through the resistence levels of old.

DOW plus 190 as i type.

i bloody wish these busts didnt come on a sat. they tend to lose some momentum by monday, but like P says it all evens out!!! what a move:)

ananda77

25-09-2010, 08:06 AM

...the next break-out level will be *1150

...as far as positioning concerned, bullish above *1130

Kind Regards

ananda77

25-09-2010, 10:19 AM

Climbing the wall of worry ... Bulls to the fore please. :)

...would not be surprised at all, if this move tonight, amongst other reasons, happened 'IN Memoriam' WALLSTREET -market realities - anythings possible- greed is good -

Kind Regards

Hoop

25-09-2010, 12:24 PM

TW result 2010

Triple Witching Friday..the week after is the week usually enjoyed by Permabears to show off their skills.. and the shorters are in to this opportunity..Its a like the week after Christmas day...

Sadly for them September 2010 TW the week after... bombed out.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP5001mnth24092010.png

STRAT

25-09-2010, 05:54 PM

any idea why this didnt translate to the asx today? we seem to have been doing our won thing for a while nowDont fret it Roy. It will fall in line I reckon

ananda77

28-09-2010, 08:56 AM

Trader Update -data point 27 September 2010:

...the SPX 500 trading mixed today and appears to be consolidating below the September 22 High *1149 amidst todays mixed market internals with volumes and breadth leaning towards a bearish bias

...Fed and Foreign liquidity inflows ticked higher into mid-extension territory but institutions are in less accumulation compared to September 20 indicating that programs are responsible for the bulk of the latest advances

...the VIX_RSI currently in for a test of positive divergence support within the next 48 hrs

...the steady tone of todays trading suggests, the index will take the current advance further for a test of overhead resistance levels *1165_*1171_*1175 before exhaustion could set in

...the index remains bullish above trendline support *1123

Kind Regards

ananda77

29-09-2010, 08:49 AM

...www.stocktiming.com: -data point 28 September 2009-

...SPX 500 Monthly update http://i55.tinypic.com/k4xiro.jpg

-September 13: chart indicates a market ready to attempt to gain higher ground

-September 27: *1148 indicates a market ready to attempt to test the April High *1219

Trader Update -data point 28 September 2010

...the SPX 500 opening down for a successful test of first line support *1131 amidst todays market internals leaning positively bullish

...as outlined in yesterdays daily update, current market action suggests, the index will take the advance further for a test of overhead resistance showing the following price levels in various time frames

*1155_*1163_*1170_*1181

before risk of a deeper correction once again is on the increase

...currently the index remains bullish above trendline support *1125

...on the flipside, a violation of September 13 congestion *1115 indicates a market ready for a bearish reversal

Kind Regards

ananda77

30-09-2010, 08:52 AM

Trader Update -data point 29 September 2010

...while the long term view of the SPX 500 index shows a building positive condition (see yesterdays update),

in the short term http://i54.tinypic.com/20awiux.jpg the index continues to trade sideways to slightly lower on low volumes but steady liquidity inflows. Institutions continue their low level accumulation

...the SPX 500 currently testing January 2010 Resistance *1152 followed by more overhead resistance *1156

...the index remains bullish above trendline support *1125

...on the flipside, a violation of September 13 congestion *1115 indicates a market ready for a bearish reversal

...on an intermarket note: oil jumped ahead today

Kind Regards

ananda77

01-10-2010, 09:42 AM

Trader Update -data point 30 September 2010

...the SPX spiked higher intraday *1157 into weekly overhead resistance *1163 following this mornings economic data but abruptly turned south to a bearish outside day

...statistically, the last day of a month (September 30) provides opportunities for a short play, especially after an intraday High has been posted. One reason could be profit-taking at quarter end but todays price action appears to be a bearish reversal based on a combination of:

-a weekly channel ceiling *1163

-the top of the 120-minute channel *1164 framing the consolidation since July

-the resistance joining the 2007 tops and the 2010 tops

-a negative divergent RSI since start of September

-a positive divergent VIX

-bearish divergences in overbought momentum studies

…since the first day of a new month statistically provides a favorable opportunity for a long play especially after a lower Close (September 30) and the market still trades above the September 28 Low *1132, a sustained violation of *1132 (Close basis) is needed to confirm the bearish bias and expose risk for a minimum drop to the range floor *1060 in the next several weeks

Kind Regards

...something different: the Transformation of former East Germany: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,720326,00.html (36 photos between 1991 and recent)

ananda77

02-10-2010, 10:22 AM

...another Close on *1146 so there may be as much bullish as bearish sentiment out there and all it needs is a trigger, like the upcoming earning guidance next week to do the trick either way

...institutional selling still hanging in a downtrend but it is on the verge of a reversal

...the market is at tipping point but a sustained violation of *1132 (Close basis) is needed to confirm the bearish bias and expose risk for a minimum drop to the range floor *1060 in the next several weeks

...in the meantime happy awaiting October, with September profits tightly locked in

Kind Regards

ananda77

05-10-2010, 07:42 AM

...www.stocktiming.com: -data point 04 October-

...institutional Core holding testing 3-year overhead resistance http://i51.tinypic.com/30l11k1.jpg

Trader Update -data point 04 October 2010

We're In a Global Currency War ... But What Does It Mean?
- by Washington's Blog – 2010-10-04
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=21294

-USD a few points above its major key support 76 and the Fed continues to pump liquidity-

...again under renewed pressure to the downside since the start of todays session, the SPX 500 tested the Sep 28 Low *1132 intraday and so far remained in test range
if the market is unable to move away from its intraday Low, further downside includes a test of 3-month trendline support *1127 and the September 23 key support level *1123

...holding *1132 confirms a market ready to challenge the September 30 High *1157 with upside potential extending higher into the *1170 (+) level

...trading below *1132 confirms weakness and exposes risk for the index to break below *1123 on a Close basis with a minimum drop to the range floor *1066 in the next several weeks to follow

Kind Regards

ananda77

05-10-2010, 05:15 PM

kiora

06-10-2010, 06:23 AM

Nice rally :)

Hoop

06-10-2010, 10:32 AM

The Inverted Head & Shoulders on the S&P ...

http://i52.tinypic.com/ic0cu9.png

A Rare, opposing Double Head & Shoulder pattern?

...projection of inverted H&S = SPX 500 *1244

At the same time, the normal orientation H&S pattern:

...right shoulder resistance SPX 500 *1156.40

SPX 500 hit 1156.80 Thursday September 30 and pulled back

Market Minestroni:

Fed pumps liquidity_USD close to support/reversal level_important VIX RSI positive divergence duress condition still unresolved

Kind Regards

Yes Ananda
Did you notice the same inverted H&S on the NZX50 plus most of the other major indexes on my latest Goldilocks and the 3 bears thread post (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7008-Goldilocks-and-the-3-Bears-%28FTSE100-DOW-S-amp-P500/page2). Notice how those formations are at a later stage than the S&P500 and some are so advanced as to nearing completion..All good news for the S&P500 as this confirms the beginning of this latest rally is probably ongoing for a little while yet.

A forecast as to a possible direction is to look at the 2 most advanced indices, the FTSE 100 and NZX50 that have the same similar simple H&S formation and compare those 2 with the S&P (Shanghai the leading index has a atypical H&S formation and hard to recognise, it is very tilted).

For the S&P500 to break back from a bull trend into the resumption of the Bull market cycle the FTSE and NZX50 will get there first before the S&P500.....so the figures to watch are the breaking of primary resistance levels.
FTSE .......5840
NZX50......3340 / 3350

Notice how the NZX50 reacted to the Europe/USA huge 1.5% - 2.5% rally...the NZX50 has hit a resistance level 3240 which it has been struggling to crack for the last fortnight..hence a small rise of only 0.5% today after hitting that 3240 at opening and respecting.

FTSE related resistance level is the 5640 which it has failed to crack last night...it too has has been try to crack this level for 2 weeks now as well

The SP500 related resistance level to that of the FTSE/NZX50 seems to be the 1175 level, if it is the SP500 could hang around this level for a week or so as well, trying to crack it.

If the NZX50 / FTSE100 fail to crack their related resistance levels and downtrends then there's an excellent chance the S&P500 will fail as well about 3 weeks later.

Formation hypothesis has it... they shouldn't fail, and continue to uptrend to meet their respective H&S formation target prices ( Those high points experienced last April)

ananda77

06-10-2010, 11:30 AM

Hi Hoop,

The SP500 related resistance level to that of the FTSE/NZX50 seems to be the 1175 level

...agree, that's the crunch point where the index may roll over in the short term for a nice correction

Kind Regards and thanks for your contribution on all the other indexes (saves me a lot of time just reading your updates)

Trader Update -data point 05 October 2010:

...the SPX 500 moved away from the September 28 Low *1132 decisively and started to rally well above key near term support from September 23 Low *1123 to a new 3-month High *1161

...considering the bullish sentiment in the market, the next expected target for this current advance is the May 13 High *1174 before risk of a bearish reversal near this overhead resistance is on the increase

Kind Regards

ananda77

07-10-2010, 08:22 AM

...www.stocktiming.com: -data point 06 October-

...Institutional Core Holding turning cautiously bullish with a Close slightly above 3-year resistance [http://i51.tinypic.com/1128od0.jpg

Trader Update -data point 06 October 2010

...Fed and Foreign liquidity inflows rose sharply yesterday but again institutions remained careful committing ahead of Fridays employment data -the ADP report today disappointed-
the VIX http://i52.tinypic.com/fodjsw.jpg still holding the support with a danger level of 24.34

...the SPX 500 could not extend above October 5 High *1163 and traded moderately lower with no damage from downticks so far

...as a result, the index so far remains on track for a challenge of May 13 High *1175 but the number of SPX 500 stocks above the 50-day MA http://i55.tinypic.com/2dhbv3o.jpg warns of a pending bearish reversal

Kind Regards

peat

07-10-2010, 10:39 AM

Looking forward to Friday morning's employment report. If it comes in "better than expected," it is supposedly bullish for stocks because it signals that the economy is getting better. If it comes in "worse than expected," it is supposedly bullish for stocks because it will then mean that the Fed will undertake QE2

Its a win win situation guys.... what choice but go long! ;)

ananda77

08-10-2010, 10:07 AM

...www.stocktiming.com: -data point 07 October 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding http://i56.tinypic.com/2u8l2rn.png -bullish above 3-year resistance- potential risk: right shoulder still a possibility below left sholder top (RS)

Trader Update -data point 07 October 2010:

…Long term Fed and Foreign liquidity inflows http://i52.tinypic.com/w9tb7r.png still ticking up while the USD edges closer to long-term 75/76 support

...in a round of profit taking, the SPX 500 dived back to intraday *1151 after the opening rally bumped into overhead resistance levels *1164_*1175

…despite the intraday set-back, downticks caused no damage so far and as long as liquidity levels continue to rise, potential for additional upticks could drive the index to a challenge of the May 13 High *1175

...failure in the *1175 range would set the stage for a bearish reversal with 3-month trendline support *1142 as an initial target with potential to test key support levels in the *1120 range

Kind Regards

Phaedrus

10-10-2010, 10:44 AM

Consensus view? The collective prognostications of a bunch of self-styled "experts" that don't know any more than you or I do?
Who gives a toss what the pundits think - it's what the market thinks that counts, and right now it is booming.

You cash up any time you like Belg, but while the market is so strong, I want to be 100% invested.

Think of it as traffic lights. When the light is green, you GO. It is only when the light turns red that you should give some thought to stopping!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP1010.gif

Phaedrus

10-10-2010, 05:01 PM

Me? I get ready to stop.

If you want to pursue the traffic light analogy further, here is a chart with a yellow phase as the nearest equivalent to amber that I can offer.

For me, this would mean no buying and that all Sell signals must be acted on.
Of course, devout contrarians would be buying at just such a time. You can see from the chart below just how well that approach works!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP1010b.gif

ananda77

10-10-2010, 05:47 PM

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Market-high-a-memory-apf-4000124455.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

Given the consentus view that markets are going to crab sideways for quite some time ... Cashing up soon would seem like reasonable strategy ... Any takers for this view?

Belgarion:

...liquidation of short position of larger market participants started in earnest throughout September and accumulation in earnest in late September and continued into the first 10 days of October; this fits with the longer time frame showing further upside potential. although the shorter time frames are struggling to keep up-momentum going

...there is no doubt that the market sentiment remains bullish at present and all we may see are shallow pull backs on the way past the April SPX 500 High *2019 into the *1300 range later this year or early 2011

...anyway, fortunately the market is not a one way street, money flows in both directions

Kind Regards

ananda77

12-10-2010, 08:58 AM

...www.stocktiming.com: -data point 11 October-

...Institutional Core Holding turning cautiously bullish with a Close extending above 3-year resistance -now 1.53% away from RS-resistance- http://i52.tinypic.com/2wq6dfn.jpg

Trader Update -data point 11 October 2010

...with a SPX 500 trading above *1157, chances are, that the inverted H&S pattern http://i51.tinypic.com/mjxyd3.jpg could play out with a Close above *1174 needed as confirmation

...the VIX (18.87) finally made it below support with the danger level 24.34 still in place as the DVOL still features a negative divergence

...liquidity levels continue to move up in expansion territory

...as a result, the SPX 500 still appears on its way to challenge the May 13 High 1175 but the %-number of SPX 500 stocks above the 50-day MA warn of a pending bearish reversal for a test of the *1120 key support range

Kind Regards

ananda77

13-10-2010, 05:00 PM

Trader Update -data point 12 October 2010:

...the SPX 500 dived back intraday *1156 but recouped losses quickly and closed higher *1170 amidst a bullish bias in daily market internals

…again, downticks caused no damage so far and as long as liquidity levels continue to rise, potential for additional upticks could drive the index to a challenge of the May 13 High *1175 and higher *1189 overhead trendline resistance would not come as a surprise either

...failure in the *1175/*1189 range would set the stage for a bearish reversal with 3-month trendline support *1144 as an initial target

Kind Regards

Hoop

13-10-2010, 05:30 PM

Shanghai Composite seems to be showing a little counter-trend kicker ... Hoop - Views?

Belg...What can one say..I'm ecstatic ..maybe an early Xmas present coming for us?:D
S&P500 rocket due to launch late Nov/early Dec?

Winners annual Xmas/New YearAll Ord prediction of 5000 :cool: is looking good again this year ..eh

I've put the chart + update on the Goldilocks and 3 bears thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7008-Goldilocks-and-the-3-Bears-%28FTSE100-DOW-S-amp-P500&p=322821#post322821)... what do you think about those GAPS interesting ..huh

COLIN

13-10-2010, 10:06 PM

FTSE off to a very positive start tonight, and Germany's DAX is now back to levels last seen before the Lehman collapse. Miners strong. Encouraging news out of Asia, and the approaching further round of QE seem to be the catalysts.

"Away with doom and gloom," I say!

ananda77

14-10-2010, 08:39 AM

Trader Update -data point 13 October 2010-

...as the Long Term Fed and Foreign liquidity inflows still show no sign of slowing, the SPX 500 jumped past *1175 resistance and is now on its way for the *1220 challenge

...the index moves now into longer term upper channel resistance with risks for a decisive sell-off on the increase

Kind Regards

ananda77

14-10-2010, 04:18 PM

... in the bond market ;)

...well agree with that

ananda77

15-10-2010, 07:48 AM

...www.stocktiming.com: -data point 14 October-

...Institutional Core Holding -at RS-resistance- failure will likely be followed by a 20 to 30 (%) drop http://i53.tinypic.com/334oi10.jpg

Trader Update -data point 14 October 2010-

...the SPX 500 opened *1179 unable to follow through higher leaving the October 13 High *1184 in place for now
in todays session the SPX 500 traded down to October 11 High *1168 short term support so far and closed yesterdays opening gap *1170

…as long as long term Fed and Foreign liquidity inflows

http://i53.tinypic.com/2rniyjr.jpg continue ticking higher in expansion territory supported as pointed out earlier by:

-Pension Funds
-Hedge Funds
-Global Commercial Banks

http://i53.tinypic.com/2v9vo93.jpg short term support is likely to limit the downside and the index remains on cue to continue to challenge overhead resistance points *1189 with potential to stretch higher into April 26 2010 year High territory

...first indications for potential downside reversals would be a RSI_9 Close below RSI_30

http://i51.tinypic.com/2954jnq.jpg

Kind Regards

Phaedrus

16-10-2010, 12:53 PM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP1016.gif

ananda77

16-10-2010, 05:58 PM

Trader Update -data point 15 October 2010-

...a nice set of data:

U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in Sep, above median 0.4%, +0.4% ex-autos
U.S. CPI rose 0.1% in Sep, below median 0.2%; core flat vs median 0.1%
U.S. Empire index surged to 15.7 in Oct, well above median 5.0 vs 4.1 Sep

...the SPX 500 appears to consolidate in the October 9 High *1169 and October 12 Congestion *1162 with view to head higher to challenge overhead resistance points *1189 including potential to stretch higher into April 26 2010 year High territory

...so far during October, the big names in the trading business have continued to show quite an appetite for risk assets but be aware of a break below *1162 or a RSI_9 Close below RSI_30 which would substantially increase risk for a decisive down side move

Kind Regards

ananda77

19-10-2010, 07:18 AM

Trader Update -data point 18 October 2010-

...the SPX advanced amidst light flows and mixed internals but appears to maintain a consolidating bias between the October*13 High *1184 and October 14 Low *1167

...the consolidating tone may continue for a bit longer, but an eventual upside breakout from this range should result in a challenge to overhead resistance points *1189 including potential to stretch higher into April 26 2010 year High territory

Kind Regards

ananda77

19-10-2010, 09:24 AM

It looking very strong at present ... Nice to see volumes, which had been falling for some 6 months, suddenly spike up

Belgarion:

...agree it looks strong but the reason why I think the consolidation will continue for a bit longer is, that the weekly 3-month_6-month time frames are turning severely overbought; the market may ignore that but I doubt it, because the situation will catch up fast if the upside break-out happens too early

...in the weekly 1-year time frame, the market faces trend line overhead resistance and if the market can clear the hurdle, that would be extremely bullish with potential for the market to go for the 2007 High

(25% hedged on fully invested portfolio at present -just to play the potential consolidating potential-)

Kind Regards

ananda77

19-10-2010, 04:53 PM

Geez, this could run and run ... !!! ... :t_up: ... :t_up: .... :t_up:

Belgarion:

...it also pays to keep an eye on the VIX. Note the pattern on the VIX from May to October ...It is a large falling wedge and falling wedges can explode to the upside

http://i53.tinypic.com/k00bcl.png

Kind Regards

ananda77

20-10-2010, 07:35 AM

Trader Update -data point 18 October 2010-

...the SPX 500 advanced briefly above October 13 High *1184 to the October 19 *1185 Close before getting hammered at todays Open

...the index bounced off the October 14 Low *1167 support initially but upticks appeared sluggish and price action returned to selling the index down to intraday Low *1162 below support

...todays trading suggests, there could be follow through action to the downside with October 12 Low *1156 as a minimum target, with potential to reach down to 6-month trendline support current *1123, if the market is unable to trade back above todays session High *1179

...inflowing long term Fed and Foreign liquidity flows remained in high expansion territory, yesterdays session included, but institutional investors (heavily hedged to the downside) have started to take profit

Kind Regards

Hoop

20-10-2010, 11:54 AM

Maybe the American/Europe markets are entering that bear scare event that Shanghai experienced 6 weeks ago before it finally took off.

Quote from my 13th October Post on the Goldilocks and the 3 Bears thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7008-Goldilocks-and-the-3-Bears-%28FTSE100-DOW-S-amp-P500/page2) "...So is Shanghai still leading ? ...Well, the other markets seem to in that flat patch that Shanghai has previously experienced (without the bear scare so far..yet to come?)"

ananda77

21-10-2010, 07:23 AM

Trader Update -data point 20 October 2010-

…the SPX 500 bounced off right at the weekly 3-month trendline *1159 yesterday (just above the October 12 Low *1156) and today has so far extended the bounce above yesterdays session High *1179 intraday, reclaiming most of this weeks losses

...considering the bullish sentiment, price action is likely to reach beyond October 18 Close *1185 to challenge the April 2010 High *1220

...on the flipside, as index over-extensions in the weekly 3-month and 6-month time frames continue to build, a break-down between upper channel resistance current *1216 and the April 2010 High *1220 would feature the October 12 Low *1156 as a minimum down target
a Close below *1156 would invite follow-through downside action for a test of weekly 6-month trendline support current *1123

...todays Close *1178 very disappointing
as a result, the market appears to approach 'tipping point' in the *2011_*2020 range (potential to reach a new yearly High in the *1230 levels)
25% (+) protective hedge remains in place

Kind Regards

ananda77

22-10-2010, 07:34 AM

Trader Update -data point 21 October 2010-

…the SPX 500 managed a new High *1189 above October18 *1186 and sold off ahead of the *1200 Psych level as
institutions continue to sell http://i56.tinypic.com/969n9c.jpg into this rally

...despite the sell-off, above a Close *1175, the index remains on track to eke out further upside into upper channel resistance current *1216 and the April 2010 High *1220

...on the flipside, as index over-extensions in the weekly 3-month and 6-month time frames continue to build, a break-down between upper channel resistance current *1216 and the April 2010 High *1220 would feature the October 12 Low *1156 as a minimum down target
a Close below *1156 would invite follow-through downside action for a test of weekly 6-month trendline support current *1123

Kind Regards

ananda77

24-10-2010, 10:21 PM

...www.stocktiming.com: -data point 22 October-

...Institutional Core Holding -at RS-resistance- still testing after two days of indecisiveness- failure likely followed by 20 to 30 (%) drop http://i51.tinypic.com/2e0msdz.jpg

Market Is Facing Major Headwinds

“ All in all it seems to us that the market rally is based on the shaky assumption that the Fed can now solve all the above problems with unproven, non-conventional monetary measures that couldn't be solved by the massive stimulus provided by either conventional monetary or fiscal tools.* With the prospect of QE2 already baked in the cake, we think the market is highly vulnerable in the period ahead “
source: http://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=Newsletter.aspx&category=MarketCommentary&newsletterid=1553&menugroup=Home

Trader Update -data point 22 October 2010-

...the SPX 500 traded in a narrow range just beneath the new five-month High *1189 from October 21 2010 with downticks unable to inflict any damage to the bullish sentiment currently driving the market
market internals however were mixed to neutral

as a result, the index remains on track to eeke out further upside into upper channel resistance current *1216 and the April 2010 High *1220 with potential to set a new 2010 index High in the *1230 range

...on the flipside, as index over-extensions in the weekly 3-month and 6-month time frames continue to build, a break-down between upper channel resistance current *1216 and the April 2010 High *1220 would feature the October 12 Low *1156 as a minimum down target
a Close below *1156 would invite follow-through downside action for a test of weekly 6-month trendline support current *1123

Kind Regards

ananda77

25-10-2010, 10:34 AM

And yet the article makes no mention of the bond bubble? Just trashes the US and global economy ... I smell someone overwieght in bonds.

"Goldman Sachs: At 7% Above The 55-DMA, The Market Has Been More Overstretched Just Once In History, And Other Mispricings"
source:
source: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-sachs-7-above-55-dma-market-has-been-more-overstreteched-just-once-history-and-other

...mind you, its the 5th week in a row that proprietary traders have accumulated equities and with 90% SPX 500-stocks above their 50-day MA, it seems telling that GS now favors the short side as its only logical, they want to pick up more assets for the longer term but just run into a shortage of supply

Kind Regards

kiora

26-10-2010, 05:13 PM

And now we have a golden cross ... 1250 by Christmas ...

Oh,So thats what you are talking about Belg

S&P 500 Makes ‘Golden Cross’ Today; Sign Stocks Not Overbought?.Q3 Tailwinds Lift T. Rowe Price’s Profits Near ‘07 PeakInteractive Broker’s Stock Soars After Beating Q3 ExpectationsEmailPrintPermalinkShare:
Twitter facebookYahoo! BuzzStumbleUponDiggfarkredditMySpaceLinkedIndel.ic io.us Text Size
By Murray Coleman
Analysts at Bespoke Investment Group are noting that the tech-heavy Nasdaq index yesterday made a ‘golden cross’ formation.

The broader S&P 500 hit one this morning as its 50-day moving average moved to 1122.40, up from 1120.50 on Thursday.

At the same time, the benchmark’s 200-day moving average jumped to 1121.50, up from 1121.40 yesterday.

A so-called ‘golden cross’ is generally considered a bullish sign that rallies still have legs.

The formation takes place when the shorter-term 50-day moving average passes the longer-term 200-day moving average.

While cautioning investors against making investment decisions solely based on such technical chart patterns, Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey says that a golden cross is interesting in terms of concerns that stocks are overbought.

“The reality is that if you look back at history, when you see these types of formations the market typically has continued to do better,” he said in an interview.

Another point to keep in mind, says Hickey — the Nasdaq tends to be more reliable when studying golden crosses over time.

“It’s a more volatile index, but technicians tend to follow it more when you get a golden cross,” he said.

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) is up 0.14%, or 17 cents, to $118.30 per share at 11:03 a.m. eastern time.

The PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) was ahead by 0.53%, or 27 cents, to $51.56 per share.

SPY had gained 10.3% in the past three months heading into Friday while QQQQ had returned 14.9% during that same period, according to Morningstar.

ananda77

27-10-2010, 07:21 AM

Trader Update -data point 26 October 2010-

...the SPX 500 recovered from early losses and further upside is possible near term amidst market internals today showing a bearish leaning

...the index remains on track into upper brickwall resistance current *1217 and the April 2010 High *1220 with potential to set a new 2010 index High in the *1230 range

...on the flipside, as index over-extensions in the weekly 3-month and 6-month time frames continue to build, a break-down between upper channel resistance current *1217 and the April 2010 High *1220 would feature the October 12 Low *1156 as a minimum down target

…a Close below *1156 would invite follow-through downside action for a test of weekly 6-month trendline support current *1123

Kind Regards

Phaedrus

27-10-2010, 11:08 AM

This chart also shows 50 and 200 day Simple moving averages and their associated "Golden Cross" and "Death Cross" signals with the trend ribbon at the bottom of the chart being driven by these crossovers. You can see why this "indicator" is not referred to very much! Note the exquisitely poor timing of the "Death" cross. Anyone acting on that would have been exactly wrong. See how a more active indicator such as the MSI gives far more accurate signals 2 - 3 months earlier.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP1027.gif

COLIN

27-10-2010, 03:59 PM

Phaedrus: Thanks for the reassuring update, and your enlightening crucifixion of the cruxes. And good to see that you are still with us, as we were beginning to miss your discipling sessions.

ananda77

28-10-2010, 08:50 AM

Trader Update -data point 27 October 2010-

...after bouncing off todays *1170 support, the index may still be on track into upper brickwall resistance current *1217 and the April 2010 High *1220 with potential to set a new 2010 index High in the *1230 range, but

...with the SPX 500 trading just below the April 2010 High, the risk of being on the 'crowded long side' and getting caught in a violent move to the down side is now extremely high versus the reward of a few more points to be gained

...the trading outlook would clear up, after a confirmed, decisive break above the April 2010 High

Kind Regards

ananda77

29-10-2010, 07:18 AM

...www.stocktiming.com: -data point 28 October-

...Institutional Core Holding -at RS-resistance amidst continuous selling into rally -failure will likely be followed by a 20 to 30 (%) drop- http://i53.tinypic.com/wwkoao.jpg

Trader Update -data point 28 October 2010-

...chop, chop, chop, institutions continue to sell the rally...

...the SPX 500 moderately lower so far, leaving the October 25 High *1196 in place for now

-unless the market manages a Close above October 21 High *1187, price action will likely continue to drift lower towards October 12 Low *1156 key support while closing below *1156 confirms October 25 High *1196 as Top

….above *1187, the index remains on track into upper brickwall resistance current *1217 and the April 2010 High *1220 with potential to set a new 2010 index High in the *1230 range

...on the flipside, as index over-extensions in the weekly 3-month and 6-month time frames continue to build, a break-down between upper channel resistance current *1217 and the April 2010 High *1220 would feature the October 12 Low *1156 as a minimum down target

…a Close below *1156 would invite follow-through downside action for a test of weekly 6-month trendline support current *1123

Kind Regards

Hoop

31-10-2010, 10:35 AM

Yes Belg very sad...
Kiwis better informed?.....probably about the same, no doubt there are many making vast amounts of money in the USA (the money sitting on the sidelines tell us this.).....
With all the data being processed and amplified by the media ( media is a valuable tool for spin doctors) a better question is: Are we Kiwis better mis-informed? Answer, It feels we are not, but in realty probably about the same ...this is one of the hazards we face every minute of the day due to the so-called "freedom of the press".

Belg did you read the 206 comments from that article..its amazing how this amplified information gathered by individuals can be mentally processed to give such wide-ranging set of beliefs.

One great comment ..." Summary: We have met the enemy and it is us! (to quote from POGO). Quite true...."

peat

31-10-2010, 11:35 AM

and yet Belg, the article itself says "With one in six Americans broadly unemployed and home values crushed, perhaps it's silly to blame Americans for missing the statistical silver linings of a gloomy economy"
After all, wrong or right, they will be making their individual economic decisions based on their perceptions.

ananda77

01-11-2010, 06:42 PM

Stocktiming.com -data point 01 November 2010-

…institutional core holding
http://i53.tinypic.com/rbwsxl.jpg

institutions stay uncommitted at RS and continue selling into the rally

http://i52.tinypic.com/ohpo3m.jpg

Trader Update -data point 01 November 2010-

...the SPX 500 Friday traded flat-to-mixed and appears to continue to consolidate below the October 25 High *1196, staying resilient on downticks

...as a result, the market displays potential to move into the weekly 3-month resistance *1213 and the April 2010 High *1220 (+) (= weekly 6-month resistance) range

…failure in the range like in August 2008_May 2010_Month End October (??)
http://i52.tinypic.com/5tuzb.jpg would target the October 12 Low *1156 as an initial, minimum down-target and a Close below the *1156 target confirms a potential double top

...on the flipside, a confirmed break-out, based on the following chart
http://i51.tinypic.com/154umqh.jpg would be bullish with a SPX 500 *1380 (+) as a minimum target

...proprietary traders continued to accumulate SPX 500 contracts for the sixth week in a row...but what's wrong with a juicy buying opportunity in form of a nice scary down move?????????????????????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????

Kind Regards

ananda77

01-11-2010, 09:08 PM

5 Reasons Americans Are So Wrong About Major Economic Facts
(http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-Reasons-Americans-Are-So-atlantic-870082825.html;_ylt=AtOeqctPkKyhKY990OSF5wZO7sMF;_ ylu=X3oDMTFiMTgwZ2VlBHBvcwMxMQRzZWMDc3BlY2lhbEZlYX R1cmVzBHNsawN3aHlhbWVyaWNhbnM-?x=0)

Kinda sad isn't it? ... I wonder if kiwis are better informed? ... (Some are as we've had a great year thus far in US markets.)

Halloween Indeed: http://dailybail.com/home/william-black-with-dylan-ratigan-there-is-bank-fraud-everywh.html

peat

01-11-2010, 11:42 PM

Halloween Indeed

Colin Twiggs has this to say about Halloween

According to wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halloween) the word Halloween (or Hallowe'en) is a Scottish variant of All Hallows Evening: the night before All Hallows Day. The celebration traces its origins to the Celtic festival of Samhain which celebrates the end of the "lighter half" of the year and beginning of the "darker half". The ancient Celts believed that the border between this world and the Otherworld became thin on Samhain, allowing spirits (both good and harmful) to pass through.

And he hopes the FOMC dont forget this as 'any wrong step could bedevil the markets'.

ananda77

02-11-2010, 07:50 AM

Trader Update -data point 01 November 2010-

...the SPX 500 today traded up early to equal the October 25 High *1196 and so far, the downticks following the intraday High did not inflict any damage, staying in between the usual 10 to 20 points retrace pattern

...as a result, the market displays potential to move into the weekly 3-month resistance *1213 and the April 2010 High *1220 (+) (= weekly 6-month resistance) range, although a possible Close today below weekly 3-month trendline support current *1188 indicates weakness

…failure in the range like in August 2008_May 2010_Month End October (??)
http://i52.tinypic.com/5tuzb.jpg would target the October 12 Low *1156 as an initial, minimum down-target and a Close below the *1156 target confirms a potential double top

...on the flipside, a confirmed break-out, as outlined in the chart
http://i51.tinypic.com/154umqh.jpg would be bullish with a SPX 500 *1380 (+) as a minimum target

Kind Regards

peat

02-11-2010, 08:24 AM

i dont know that its quite that cut and dried... nothing ever is. They've given themselves more options this time as in drip feeding the easing.

ananda77

02-11-2010, 12:01 PM

i dont know that its quite that cut and dried... nothing ever is. They've given themselves more options this time as in drip feeding the easing.

...basically think, economies are going to do better than expected in general, but markets are over-extended and I am prepared to deal with a sell-the-fact spike sometime this week (Friday has payrolls!!! - expected to be positive news)

Kind Regards

ananda77

03-11-2010, 07:40 AM

Trader Update -data point 02 November 2010-

...while institutions selling action is 'on hold' and RSI_30 still sits above the historically significant danger level '5'

http://i52.tinypic.com/2nm14ye.jpg

the SPX 500 managed another rally, but so far unable to make it to the October 25 High *1196

...as a result, the market displays potential to move into the weekly 3-month resistance current *1214 and the April 2010 High *1220 (+) range

…failure in the range like in August 2008_May 2010_Month End October (??)

http://i52.tinypic.com/5tuzb.jpg

would target the October 12 Low *1156 as an initial, minimum down-target and a Close below the *1156 target confirms a potential double top

...on the flipside, a confirmed break-out, as outlined in the chart

http://i51.tinypic.com/154umqh.jpg

would be bullish with a SPX 500 *1380 (+) as a minimum target

Kind Regards

ananda77

04-11-2010, 02:27 AM

peat

04-11-2010, 07:23 AM

the Committee intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month.

ananda77

04-11-2010, 07:52 AM

Stocktiming.com -data point 03 November 2010-

…institutional core holding

http://i55.tinypic.com/betqur.jpg

-close above RS indicating bullish bias-

...Fed and Foreign Long term liquidity inflows

http://i52.tinypic.com/2qkj9xv.jpg

-break to upside-

...as a result, the SPX 500 displays potential to move into the daily 3-month upper resistance channel current *1250

...on the flipside, the VIX and the NYSE DVOL

http://i51.tinypic.com/fkqw5g.jpg

...out of equilibrium, indicating significant downside potential, IF liquidity inflows compromised (possibly a Fed announcement below 500B)

Trader Update -data point 03 November 2010-

...the SPX 500 followed the classic sell-the-fact pattern after the Fed announcement but down ticks so far appear mild without causing too mauch damage; as a matter of fact

http://i52.tinypic.com/vyunuh.jpg

Conclusions:
From a statistical and historical point of view, a lower open or any weakness ( but don’t bet on much downside potential – if any – ) during the first hour of the session will probably provide a short-term (intraday) buying opportunity targeting a higher price immediately before 2:15 p.m. (bulls will probably be grinding their way higher)

...so here we go, the market displays potential to move into the weekly 3-month resistance current *1214 and the April 2010 High *1220 (+) range as the next likely upside targets and
both scenarios below remain possible and could play out successively

…failure in the range like in August 2008_May 2010_Current (??)

http://i52.tinypic.com/5tuzb.jpg

would target the October 12 Low *1156 as an initial, minimum down-target and a Close below the *1156 target confirms a potential double top

...on the flipside, a confirmed break-out, as outlined in the chart

http://i51.tinypic.com/154umqh.jpg

would be bullish with a SPX 500 *1380 (+) as a minimum target

Kind Regards

peat

04-11-2010, 10:02 AM

from zerohedge...

After USTs, the deranged madman will buy MBS, then ETFs, then stocks, then Plasma TVs, then hookers, then lapdances, then toenail clippers, then toilet paper, then the most worthless thing of it all- dollars themselves, and then, finally, it will be all over.

ananda77

04-11-2010, 05:47 PM

from zerohedge...After USTs, the deranged madman will buy MBS, then ETFs, then stocks, then Plasma TVs, then hookers, then lapdances, then toenail clippers, then toilet paper, then the most worthless thing of it all- dollars themselves, and then, finally, it will be all over.

ZEITGEIST: ANSWERS TO WHY ? (missing it is your problem) http://vimeo.com/13770061

Kind Regards

ananda77

05-11-2010, 07:40 AM

Trader Update -data point 04 November 2010-

...the SPX 500 surged higher after yesterdays FOMC decision and appears ready to take out the April 2010 High *1220

...the imminent break-out above *1220 would set the market up to continue higher into the daily 3-month upper channel resistance current *1256 with potential to touch on the weekly 1-year lower channel resistance current *1298

…failing the *1220 High like in August 2008_May 2010_Current (??)

http://i52.tinypic.com/5tuzb.jpg

would target the October 12 Low *1156 as an initial, minimum down-target and a Close below the *1156 target confirms a potential double top

...on the flipside, a confirmed break-out, as outlined in the chart

http://i51.tinypic.com/154umqh.jpg

would be bullish with a SPX 500 *1380 (+) as target

Kind Regards

ananda77

05-11-2010, 09:51 AM

The QE policy has me stumped as to exactly what purpose it serves the american economy.

...the ONLY real purpose of QE 1,2,3,4,5,6,7....is to force already over the moon debt levels up further to keep the present monetary system functioning, e.g to avoid contraction; without QE, the whole monetary system goes down the drain

-the counterfitters are busy at work- (and here in NZ, people like Don Brash, John Key and their political cohorts are busy proposing the same policies) -get rid of them -the whole bloody lot-

...and keep yourself debt free

-

Kind regards

Hoop

05-11-2010, 11:37 AM

The QE policy has me stumped as to exactly what purpose it serves the american economy. .....

Quick answer...to try to create inflation to prevent deflation....(by inference it seems the FED now sees possible deflation as a huge threat)

Deflation expectations/fears stop companies borrowing money to expand and grow thereby stalling the economy. This leads to recession or depression scenarios. QE is put into effect when the other basic forms of economic stimuli fail .e.g lowering interest rates, tax rebates etc.

QE is often seen when the official interest rate hits 0% and can go down no further.

Expect QE to keep happening until the economy kick starts....

ananda77

05-11-2010, 09:35 PM

David Rosenberg:

U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE — QE2 THOUGHTS

There was nothing in the Fed press release yesterday that was really surprising. In fact, the market’s initial dramatic reaction (all over the map) was what’s most surprising. The Fed is going to be buying $600 billion of Treasuries (in the 5-10 year part of the curve) through mid-2011 and another $250-300 billion via coupon reinvestments, which they were going to do anyway.

The “number” that was key for the markets is that $600 billion figure, which is about $75 billion per month. That is in the middle of consensus expectations of $50-100 billion. Not “shock and awe”, based on what was broadly expected, but not “light” either considering that the economy, at least so far, has managed to avoid double-dipping.

For all the excitement, this further expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet will add between 0.25-0.5% to real GDP growth; however, this will take the size of the Fed’s balance sheet to a Japanese-style 20% of GDP!

What the Fed is clearly trying to do is reflate asset values in order to generate a more positive wealth effect on personal spending and pull the cost of debt and equity capital down in order to re-ignite business “animal spirits” and hence corporate investment and hiring. In a balance sheet or deleveraging cycle, success is not always guaranteed even by the most aggressive of monetary policies.

Through its actions, the Fed creates excess reserves in the banking system. But with one-third of the household sector gripped with a sub-620 FICO score, 1-in-7 mortgage debtors are either in arrears or in the foreclosure process, and with an estimated 25% of homeowners “upside down” in their mortgage (negative equity), there is at least some non-trivial probability that, as was the case with QE1, there will be no visible impact on the willingness to borrow, the money multiplier or velocity, which is what we would need to see to declare this radical policy experiment a success.

ananda77

05-11-2010, 10:36 PM

Trader Update -data point 5 November 2010-

...SPX 500 October 27 Low *1172 = inflection point positive/negative bias

Kind Regards

Hoop

06-11-2010, 11:06 AM

Remember Rosenberg is a permabear similar status to Prechter Roubini. etc...If you read only their columns you will become depressed paranoid and beleive everything is one gigantic conspiracy. I have trouble trying to find happy news from these guys....their followers would have lost heaps of money if they followed these guys to the letter.

We need balanced articles to make good decisions ..not read only those articles that fit ones emotional mood of the day.

The banking system is never fair as they are a lagging component in the economic system...

Ok... I do read these permabear articles as well as the over the top bull (sh1T) ones as well.

This video (http://video.tvguide.com/Money/Rosenbergs+Parting+Shots/6292238?autoplay=true) the dedicated Rosenberg followers will enjoy:D:D...the video clip (13 August) shows the CNBC commentators do not hold Rosenberg in very high regard as they rubbished him with his comments that US is getting deeper in the economic poo and QE2 will happen before the end of the year as well as the 10yr TNotes falling back to 2% the Dec2008 lows.

He has recently been proven right about QE2.
For the record the chart below shows where we were yesterday what are the chances of Tnotes falling to Dec 2008 bottom??? Is the chart showing a possible inverted H&S formation in progress??

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/10yrUSTreasuryNotes3yr.png

winner69

06-11-2010, 11:26 AM

Nothing unusuak about this recovery .... just a run of the mill one really ... boring as

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20101105.htm?T

Phaedrus

06-11-2010, 12:21 PM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP116.gif

ananda77

06-11-2010, 06:27 PM

Trader Update -data point 05 November 2010-

U.S. consumer credit bounced $2.15 bln in Sep, above med; 1st rise in 8-months
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 151k in Oct, above median +62k; jobless rate 9.6%

...the SPX 500 finally eclipsed the April High *1220 but in typical weekend fashion stalled *1227 to spent the balance of the day consolidating just above *1220

...although the consolidation bias around the *1220 mark may linger for a while, the market will likely follow through higher into the *1250 level with potential to reach out to the August 2008 High *1313

...on the flipside, October 27 Low *1172, current inflection point positive/negative bias

thoughts:

-Dow up 75% from 2009 Low and closed at best level since September 8 2008
equity wealth effect alive and well -for now-

-busiest period in two months for new corporate issuance

-USD at new lows = goodies for foreign-derived coporate earnings and export competitiveness

-Commodity prices on fire

-30-year long bond rate up and TIPS market indicating heightened inflation expectation

The Fed may be successful at reflating asset values as it did with the tech mania in the late 1990s and again in the housing bubble in the last cycle

However, Fed-led asset cycles end in tears, and few manage to get out early enough because greed is an emotion that may go comatose in a brutal bear market but it never fully expires

Whatever tools the Fed has at its disposal are very blunt ones when it comes to addressing the deep-rooted structural problems:

-stretched personal balance sheets

-excessive housing supply

-over-regulation

-uncertain health care and taxation costs in the future

-chronic unemployment

...but as the saying goes: no worries, she'll be right mate

Kind Regards

ananda77

08-11-2010, 12:07 PM

...www.stocktiming.com: -data point 05 November 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding

http://i54.tinypic.com/xm67he.png

-1.59% to go to the April 2010 High

Trader Update -data point 05 November 2010-

...Long Term Fed and Foreign Liquidity inflows

http://i51.tinypic.com/x0qrzo.png

-proprietary traders accumulated for the 7th. Week but accumulation appears to reach a plateau as the latest level is barely above last weeks (no chart shown)

...bullish sentiment reigns with a high degree of complacency towards any downside potential, but the markets are dangerously over-extended

http://i52.tinypic.com/qqa79u.png

-can the market tune up along the 4 STD Bollinger and is this time different? furthermore, for Fibonnacci interested, SPX 500 *1128 = 61.8% retrace level

...as a result: fully invested portfolio 50% protected -and trigger-happy-

Kind Regards

ananda77

09-11-2010, 07:27 AM

Trader update -data point 08 November 2010-

...the SPX 500 continues to consolidate around the *1210/*1220 mark and may linger for a while, but the market will likely follow through higher into the *1250 level with potential to reach out to the August 2008 High *1313

...on the flipside, October 27 Low *1172, current inflection point positive/negative bias

UNBELIEVABLE ARROGANCE!

INTERVIEW WITH GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER SCHÄUBLE

'The US Has Lived on Borrowed Money for Too Long'

In an interview with SPIEGEL, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, 68, criticizes US calls for Germany to reduce exports, outlines his plans for an insolvency framework for indebted European nations and the emphasizes the significance of the German-French axis for Europe.

Kind Regards

ananda77

09-11-2010, 07:08 PM

...the Fed, has to bolster trhe economy by printing money.

Hi Belgarion

...the 600B does stuff all to bolster the economy (to really fill the output gap -trillions are needed)

because it just sits as excess reserves in the banks since no one is borrowing at present. The Fed of course hopes, that excess liquidity finds its way into the markets and everyone will benefit in terms of the wealth effect

...once the wealth effect takes hold, it is hoped, that people 'feel rich' and start looking at borrowing again -only then will the 600B have an effect on the economy (fractional reserve system 101)-

...so as a result, the banks and the Fed have no choice but to be the biggest players in the market;

people should by now be aware of the Feds short sighted cycle strategies as they have ALWAYS ended in tears for the majority, while those driving the markets (proprietary traders and the Fed) are able to cream off the top

...the real problem is that the Fed has absolute power over the printing press (forget those diddely left/right politicians of every colour and race) and the 600B need to go into the banks first, who increase debt levels and charge interest (with a twist this time in that a 'wealth effect' needs to be created)

...as an alternative, if government would have absolute power, the 600B would go straight into peoples bank accounts to be spend with a resulting immediate effect on the economy (see China -they humming)

DO NOT VOTE unless 'get rid of the CB' is the main agenda -there will be less unneccessary competition, extortion, exploitation, corruption, etc.etc.etc...

Kind Regards

Trader update -data point 08 November 2010-

...re markets: because of the 'wealth effect' creation, the markets need to stay pumped and the only reason for a correction is if there is not enough supply

...one indicator that tells the demand/supply story is of course the % SPX 500 stocks above the 50_100_200-day MA

...time frame:

Fed's Fisher: Fed will be will be "monetizing the debt" for next 8-months
Fed' Bullard: asset purchases will have conventional policy effect, 6-12 mth lag

ananda77

10-11-2010, 07:31 AM

Trader update -data point 09 November 2010-

...the SPX continues to drift sideways-to-lower in a consolidation mode below the November 5 High 1227. Chances sre, the market needs to see a bounce off the *1200/*1209 level before moving higher into the *1250 level with potential to reach out to the August 2008 High *1313

...key support remains the October 27 Low *1172

Kind Regards

ananda77

11-11-2010, 07:38 AM

Trader update -data point 10 November 2010-

...as outlined in yesterdays update, the SPX 500 briefly tested earlier trendline resistance November 3 High *1200 with an intraday Low *1204

...the index appears to make headway in late action, but to be sure, based on mixed market internals today, risk still lingers for another test of *1200 before heading higher into the *1250 level with potential to reach out to the August 2008 High *1313

...key support remains the October 27 Low *1172

Kind Regards

peat

12-11-2010, 02:58 PM

yes a couple of hourly hammers suggested a support level
but currencies have turned, stocks wont be far behind.
Risk now off.
I wonder how much ammo the PPT has left. Done a good job so far in keeping things up.

ananda77

12-11-2010, 05:38 PM

Trader Update -data point 11 November 2010-

...from a bullish bias: based on todays market internals the positive buying divergence towards session end continues and the SPX 500 closed again well above the November 03 High *1200

...a more bearish view: the positive divergence was not broad based and as a result, the SPX 500 closed down -5, moving further away from the *1222 positive/negative inflection point

...while the markets remain severly over-extended in the weekly 3-month/6-month time frames, the daily 3-month has started to correct but remains still in extension territory -1 rally and the market goes back to square one-

...as a result, more down side price action is likely with *1198/*1190 as attractive downside targets, followed by the October 27 key support level *1172 in a potential surprise downside move

...price action below *1198/*1190 indicates further weakness, while a Close above the *1222 inflection point would indicate the continuation of the recent bullsih advance

-!- 25 November 2010: US Thanks Giving -historically, all major markets rally one day before to one day after, while the 2nd. day after, markets are more likely to trade bearish -!-

Kind Regards

ananda77

12-11-2010, 08:06 PM

...please make a donation to help pay OUR public debt

http://i52.tinypic.com/2w7l152.png

The End Of Liberty
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ

Kind Regards

ananda77

13-11-2010, 07:28 AM

Trader update -data point 12 November 2010-

...the SPX 500 extending the corective pullback from November 5 Peak *1227. Todays violation of the *1200 psych barrier indicates risk of mild follow-through lower before turning

...allow for brief losses to affirm the November 1 Low *1178 or November 3 High *1172 as the next potential downside targets. A successful defense of *1172/*1178 is expected, which will provide the base for a rally into the *1250 level with potential to reach out to the August 2008 High *1313

...key support remains the October 27 Low *1172

Kind Regards

Hoop

14-11-2010, 10:38 AM

I'm watching, very closely, one of my favorites sets of crosses on the SP500 that has been working for me quite well in the last 6 months or so... A cross up through the 10 day MA has been a reasonable signal to prime up some buys. Conversely, a cross down through the 20 day MA has been a signal to run for the hills. Very general indicators obviously. We're poised for a cross down through the 20 day MA ... I have a very, very itchy trigger finger indeed, but so far just 1 stop out of seven has fired but 5 are dangerously close ... Will this be a cashed up Christmas?

When using SMA20 I tend to use it with the Bollinger Bands......do you Belg?

ananda77

15-11-2010, 07:55 AM

...just a few facts to remember:

-when oil first tested the $90/bbl level back in October 2007, the U.S. economy slipped into recession, without anyone knowing it, including the Fed, including the long list of Wall Street economists, many of whom are still in their seats today

-fact is that in both October 2007 and again in November 2010, the test of the highs was not confirmed by the financials

-negative Cisco surprise in both 2000 and 2007 proved to be leading indicators of the equity market

Kind Regards

ananda77

16-11-2010, 08:21 AM

Trader update -data point 15 November 2010-

...the SPX 500 posted a decent bullish inside day rebound today from an extremely oversold daily RSI after completing the first half of a corrective pullback from November 5 High *1227 on Fridays Close *1194
so far, market internals show a bullish bias with advance/decline 2:1, but a small number of new Highs and selling still apparent. This makes the advance look unimpulsively lame ducky and suggest a second downleg in the pipeline further out
still, gains should continue to a challenge of November 5 Low *1215/November 7 Low *1222

...failure in that area should foster one more shallow pullback to affirm the November 1 Low *1,178 or the October 27 Low *1172, but a successful defense of this level is expected as a foundation for a rally into the *1250 level with potential to reach out to the August 2008 High *1313

...key support remains the October 27 Low *1172

Kind Regards

Hoop

16-11-2010, 10:51 AM

Sorry Hoop, You lost me there.
Belg I know you use Bollinger Bands and watch for the squeezing of the bands to indicate a trend change movement. BB's have many other uses , you can fiddle around with them to suit your analysis.
Rule of thumb in recognizing uptrends.... when the index stays mostly between the top Dev line and the MA20 dotted line and vice versa.
As the MA20 gets broken regularly BB can aid you to which MA20 breaks is important and those which aren't.

Chart below:... the S&P500 as at 3.59pm today (US time) one minute before closing bell. I have shown just one aspect of the uses of BB that I'm interested in ATM and that is when the next bull market correction may occur using the examples marked in green as historical references.

EDIT: ATM today there is no falling of the bottom SD Bollinger Band line. This is the line I'm watching since that recent MA20 break which is hard to see on the chart (but see red circles). If the index moves down to meet the bottom band line and that band does not fall steeply then there's no problem as it would seem the present trend is still continuing but with a normal mild healthy correction.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP500bollingerbands16112020.png

ananda77

16-11-2010, 07:33 PM

Trader update -data point 15 November 2010-

http://i53.tinypic.com/8vyik0.jpg
...the market will see some real turmoil this week as the C-RSI 30 danger line is being tested

http://i51.tinypic.com/2uofb.jpg
http://i55.tinypic.com/313g4sk.jpg
...past historical movements indicate:

-possibility for the SPX 500 to drop to red trend line and still be in a longer term up trend

-a 45 to 90 point drop would still be in line with drops which would equate to 3.5% to 7.5% from Fridays *1199 Close

...prop traders, hedgies, and other large speculators supporting the market

Kind Regards

Videos:

-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/secret-oz-truth-behind-modern-financial-system-and-money-political-complex
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs

ananda77

17-11-2010, 07:37 AM

Trader update -data point 16 November 2010-

...as outlined in yesterdays update, the SPX 500 extended the corrective shakeout from the November 5 High *1227 to an intraday Low *1175 so far, within striking distance of the October 27 Low *1172. Judging by the aggressiveness of todays setback, further losses are possible, but prices should stabilize at the 50-day MA current *1157 level

...expect prices to stabilize between the October 19 Low *1160_October 27 Low *1172 with a broad consolidation into year-end between *1160/*1227

...a bullish breakout above the November 5 High *1227 in Q1 2011 would set the market up to higher into the *1250 level with potential to reach out to the August 2008 High *1313

Kind Regards

Videos

-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/secret-oz-truth-behind-modern-financial-system-and-money-political-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Phaedrus

17-11-2010, 10:36 AM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP1117.gif

peat

17-11-2010, 10:53 AM

you sure there are no yellow spots Phaedrus ? ;+)

I guess the strength of the recent advance takes a similarly large correction for the MSI to turn bearish as with trending systems such as Ichimoku where on the daily there is still thick cloud support some way below current price.

ananda77

18-11-2010, 07:36 AM

Trader update -data point 17 November 2010-

...the SPX 500 trading modestly higher intraday amidst mixed market internals showing signs of stabilization, but

http://i56.tinypic.com/ejc2gh.jpg
%SPX 500 stocks above the 50-day MA *70 still remain in high territory to be a real buying opportunity

...as a result, the corrective shakeout from the November 5 High *1227 is likely to have more downside with the October 27 Low *1172_the October 19 Low *1160_the 50-day MA *1157 as imminent nearby targets

...expect prices to stabilize between the October 19 Low *1160_October 27 Low *1172 with a broad consolidation into year-end between *1160/*1227

...a bullish breakout above the November 5 High *1227 in Q1 2011would set the market up to higher into the *1250 level with potential to reach out to the August 2008 High *1313

Kind Regards

-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/secret-oz-truth-behind-modern-financial-system-and-money-political-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

ananda77

19-11-2010, 08:03 AM

Trader update -data point 18 November 2010-

...broadbased and bullish, in terms of volume_adv/decl, the SPX 500 gapped open sharply higher. New highs readings of 88 and muted uptick power however warn that the market needs to follow through strongly.
If the market is unable to eclipse the *1203/*1207 congestion by Fridays Open, risk increases substantially for another move down for a stronger test of support between the October 27 Low *1172_the October 19 Low *1160_the 50-day MA *1157.

...if so, look for a broad consolidation into year-end between *1160/*1227 up from the October 19 Low *1160_October 27 Low *1172

...a bullish breakout above the November 5 High *1227 in Q1 2011would set the market up to higher into the *1250 level with potential to reach out to the August 2008 High *1313

Kind Regards

-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/secret-oz-truth-behind-modern-financial-system-and-money-political-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

ananda77

20-11-2010, 07:10 AM

Trader update -data point 19 November 2010-

...the SPX 500 moderately lower with downticks causing no damage so far, but if the market remains unable to eclipse the *1203/*1207 congestion today or early next week, risk increases substantially for another move down for a stronger test of support between the October 27 Low *1172_the October 19 Low *1160_the 50-day MA *1157.
-todays market internals feature selling pressure with a lower new highs number- %Stocks above the SPX 500 50-day MA back to *70 -hardly a bargain level- weekly 6-month time frames remain overextended and the weekly 1-year frame elevated

...if so, look for a broad consolidation into year-end between *1160/*1227 up from the October 19 Low *1160_October 27 Low *1172

...a bullish breakout above the November 5 High *1227 in Q1 2011would set the market up to higher into the *1250 level with potential to reach out to the August 2008 High *1313

Kind Regards

-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/secret-oz-truth-behind-modern-financial-system-and-money-political-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

ananda77

20-11-2010, 12:52 PM

Trader update -data point 19 November 2010-

...for eight weeks in a row, prop desks, hedgies, and Fed_Foreign dominated liquidity inflows into the equity market, but of late, these participants have been stealth sellers, while the general public really piled it on...

Kind Regards

winner69

21-11-2010, 04:11 PM

ananda77

22-11-2010, 06:25 PM

Belg ... this guy now talking about cliffs
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc101115.htm

is interesting that (quote) On the NYSE, hundreds of stocks achieved new 52-week highs, but ended down on the week, with technical evidence suggesting a uniform reversal from a "high pole" buying climax. The percentage of bullish investment advisors reached 48.4% - the highest since the April peak, while the AAII sentiment poll shot to 57.6% bulls - the highest since 2007.

Fun ahead methinks

...its US Thanksgiving Week and historically the weekly SPX 500 performance as follows:

http://i51.tinypic.com/2mzwjn4.png
Table above shows the S&P 500′s (weekly) performance during Thanksgiving Day week (‘Weekly Returns‘), the number of sessions (‘No. of sessions‘), the maximum gain (‘Max. Gain‘) and maximum loss (‘Max. Loss‘) during the week (close-to-close basis), and the respective previous (‘Prev. Week‘) and next week’s (‘Next Week‘) performance, assumed one went long on close of Friday prior to Thanksgiving where the S&P 500 was up month-to-date in the past

Interesting to note that with respect to Thanksgiving Day week where the S&P 500 was up month-to-date on close of Friday prior to Thanksgiving, the S&P 500 showed a positive weekly performance on 27 out of the last 37 occurrences (or 72.97% of the time); did not post a single lower close below option expiration’s close on 15 out of the last 37 occurrences; and finally posted a weekly loss greater than -1.0% on only 3 occurrences (max. loss -1.56%), but a weekly gain greater than +1.0% on 18 occurrences

Conclusions:

From a statistical and historical point of view, there is a good chance (and a significantly above-average expectancy as well) that the market will probably continue its up-move during Thanksgiving Day week

winner69: that's not to say I disagree with the fundamental guys

Kind Regards

ananda77

23-11-2010, 07:49 AM

Trader update -data point 22 November 2010-

...basically unchanged from November 19. The market needs to establish a base *1182/*1184 to avoid the slide down to the *1160 level

Kind Regards

Hoop

23-11-2010, 12:51 PM

Quite a good fightback today to end in the current "safe zone" ... But I'm still not feeling that safe!

Me neither..
Rally Correction in progress methinks.....the question now is...how big is it going to be -5%..-10% before it rallies again ???

ananda77

23-11-2010, 01:27 PM

Thanks: 50

Trader update -data point 22 November 2010-

...airport this morning...

...the SPX 500 pulled back from last weeks failed test of November 11 *1200 High but downticks appear corrective above *1182/*1184 congestion. If the market can build a base *1182/*1184 this week, look for a breakout above *1200 targeting the *1250 level with potential to reach out to the August 2008 High *1313. The Nasdaq appears to have taken back the lead to upside

...on the flipside, failure to hold *1182 will expose risk for additional downticks to affirm the October 27 Low *1172_the Oct 19 Low *1160_*the 50-day MA *1157

... further ahead, a broad consolidation should develop into year-end between *1160/*1227 eventually leading to a bullish breakout above *1227 in Q1 2011

-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/secret-oz...litical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

ananda77

24-11-2010, 07:41 AM

Trader update -data point 23 November 2010-

...the SPX 500 under the hammer all morning with an intraday Low *1177 above the November 16 Low *1173...and appears to hold, trading curently above *1183/*1183 congestion. If a near term double bottom above *1173 eventuates, look for a *1200 breakout targeting the *1250 level with potential to reach out to the August 2008 High *1313 towards year end

...on the flipside, failure to hold *1173 will expose risk for additional downticks to affirm the October 27 Low *1172_the Oct 19 Low *1160_the 50-day MA *1157

... further ahead, a broad consolidation should develop into year-end between *1160/*1227 eventually leading to a bullish breakout above *1227 in Q1 2011

-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/secret-oz-truth-behind-modern-financial-system-and-money-political-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

ananda77

24-11-2010, 07:29 PM

...www.stocktiming.com: -data point 23 November 2009-

...Long Term SPX 500 update:

http://i52.tinypic.com/so1oc8.png
The trend remains up with the S&P significantly above the 1103 level.

Disturbing is the fact that the market is not particularly moving up on GDP growth, or improved unemployment numbers ... but on increasing Liquidity Inflow Levels courtesy of the Fed.

The concern Institutional investors have, is that they do not know when the Fed will pull back on that action. Our thinking is that the answer is tied into when Institutions and others will be selling at a daily amount where the Fed doesn't want to anti-up anymore money beyond that point. Let's face it, the Fed has no interest in providing infinite amounts of money while they are just as concerned about creating an inflation backlash. So, there is an upcoming point where their strategy and resolve will be tested.

Note that the monthly C-RSI reading is concerningly low for a Bull market condition and could pose a problem if it can't get much higher.

Trader Update -data point 23 November 2010-

...next update -data point 24 November 2010

Kind Regards

http://i54.tinypic.com/29f8oaw.png
Money Systems Compared

NEW -Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJWnRFUJA&feature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

ananda77

25-11-2010, 07:30 AM

Trader update -data point 23 November 2010-

...as expected, the SPX 500 successfully defended the November 16 Low *1173 and turned broadly higher from a heavily oversold daily time frame. As a result, *1173 should be the base for an imminent*breakout above *1200 targeting the *1250/*1266 level initially

...the 6-month time frame however remains over extended and risks remain in the *1250/*1266 level for a second break to affirm the October 27 Low *1172_the October 19 Low *1160_the 50-day MA as a stronger bottom before year-end

... further ahead, a broad consolidation should develop into year-end between *1160/*1227 eventually leading to a bullish breakout above *1227 in Q1 2011

Kind Regards

NEW -Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJW...eature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/secret-oz-truth-behind-modern-financial-system-and-money-political-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-ZeitGeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Phaedrus

25-11-2010, 08:13 AM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP1125.gif

ob1kinobi

25-11-2010, 04:14 PM

Hi Phaedrus,

Please excuse my ignorance. What does that mean, being green and all ? The market is strong rising or falling?

I've recently subscribed to this thread to follow US sentiment more closely. The US markets seem a bit bi-polar to me.

Large advances and large retreats.

OB1

Phaedrus

25-11-2010, 06:37 PM

This indicator is an attempt to objectively measure market strength. How you use it is entirely up to you. The plot is green when the market is strong - that's when you want to be fully invested. When the plot is red, the market is weak - that's when you might want to be cashed up and sitting on the sideline.
When the plot is light green, market sentiment is positive and improving - a good time to be getting in. When the plot is yellow, market sentiment is negative and worsening - a good time to consider getting out. (Truly devout contrarians would presumably act rather differently!)
When market sentiment is more or less neutral, the MSI is around zero and the plot is grey.
This system worked superbly for me during the long slide, keeping me largely out of the market while it crashed and signalling a timely re-entry just 3 weeks after the bottom.
In short, when the plot is green I am Bullish and when it is red I am Bearish.

ananda77

29-11-2010, 01:05 PM

Trader Update -data point 29 November 2010-

http://i53.tinypic.com/2u6fat2.png
Fridays SPY session, absent of large investors, closed on intraday Low (-1.16%) and ES-mini futures dumped after Close (-0.5%) between 1_1:15 pm

conclusion:
-odds favor lower prices especially if trading again affected by any (or the lack of) news or potential intensifying of latent debt crisis in the euro zone_the crisis between North and South Korea

Kind Regards

NEW Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJWnRFUJA&feature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

ananda77

30-11-2010, 07:43 AM

Will be interesting to see how the US reacts to Eire's bailout ...

Stocktiming.com -data point 29 November 2010-

http://i51.tinypic.com/r7szf9.jpg
-markets precariously sitting on the edge of having a serious drop
-strength needs to trend up for the SPX 500 to finish testing and moving up above the 61.8% Fibonacci level

Trader update -data point 29 November 2010-

...the SPX 500 today continues to fail the November 18 High *1200 level and is at risk to break down from the 'higher Low consolidation pattern' between the November 16 Low *1173_November 18 High *1200

...a Close below the near term double bottom *1176_*1183 will make a test of the 6-month trendline support current *1145, as featured on the weekly time frame, likely in the coming weeks

...a bullish reversal from *1146 support should set the market up for a multi-month rally that need to set the *1200 level as a benchmark for a potential bullish break-out above *1227 in Q1 2011 with gains leading into the *1400 range

NEW Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJW...eature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

ananda77

01-12-2010, 08:11 AM

Trader update -data point 30 November 2010-

...considering:

-prop-desks, hedgies, and institutions stopped accumulating the second week
-institutional equity portfolio manager fully invested now (3.5% cash ratio) as at the October 2007 peak
-daily new highs come in anaemic
-long term trend Foreign_Fed liquidity inflows still in positive territory but sagging

http://i56.tinypic.com/5xtuh1.jpg
-no boost to liquidity next 24/48 hrs starting yesterday –

...the SPX 500 continues to sit above the November 16 Low *1173 and current uptick power too lame to catapult the index towards the *1200 mark

... as a result, risks high for imminent violation of the near term double bottom *1173/*1183 to test of the 6-month trendline support current *1146, as featured on the weekly time frame, likely in the coming weeks

...a bullish reversal from *1146 trendline support should set the market up for a multi-month rally that need to set the *1200 level as a benchmark for a potential bullish break-out above *1227 in Q1 2011 with gains leading into the *1400 range

NEW Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJW...eature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

ananda77

02-12-2010, 07:57 AM

...just in time, the SPX 500 disaster can got kicked further down the road in tune with the beginning of the silly season where 'push-up bras' are supposed to finally save the economy (Farrell)

http://i53.tinypic.com/11cgwg1.jpg
...statistical and historical evidence shows, that after posting 3 consecutive SPX 500 lower open, lower highs and lower closes, (winning percentage and expectancy are tilt in favor of higher prices over the course of the next couple of sessions

...the SPX 500 was unable to breach the November 16 Low *1173 during the past two weeks. Todays sharp short covering rally suggest potential to reach the November 11 High *1215 as the next logical target and the market may push to eclipse the November 9 Peak *1127

...failing *1115 or near *1127 will expose risk for another sell-down to confirm either *1173 or look for a stronger bottom close to the 6-month trendline support current *1146

...a bullish reversal from*1173_*1146 trendline support should set the market up for a multi-month rally with potential for a bullish break-out above *1227 in Q1 2011 and gains possibly leading into the *1400 range

NEW Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJW...eature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

ananda77

03-12-2010, 01:09 PM

...www.stocktiming.com: -data point 02 December 2010-

http://i56.tinypic.com/1556wpy.png
liquidity inflows boosted yesterday with minor prop-desk_hedgies_Fed/Foreign_institutional accumulation footprint

http://i54.tinypic.com/2j1skxy.png
as liquidity inflows today appear to continue, SPX 500 pattern projection *1247 for current advance if...

http://i56.tinypic.com/25ajluf.jpg
strength gets out of the doldrum

NEW Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJW...eature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

ananda77

04-12-2010, 07:22 AM

Trader update -data point 03 December 2010-

...for the record:

statistically, after posting two strong up-days right at the start of the month winning percentage and expectancy heavily tilt to a positive December performance

...additionally there is a significantly above-average probability that Novembers end-of-month Close S&P 500 *1180 will not be penetrated during December

...as a result, short-term consolidation of recent gains expected to be buying opportunities targeting higher prices during the remainder and/or at the end of December

...the SPX 500 appears to try to hang on consolidating just beneath the December 2 High *1222 but risks of a near term roll-over cannot be ruled out

...if the market remains unable to push the November 9 Peak *1227 out of the way and instead fails the *1222 mark, look for a brief sell-off to retest the November 16 Low *1173_the weekly 6-month trendline support *1146

...a bullish reversal from*1173_*1146 trendline support should set the market up for a multi-month rally with potential for a bullish break-out above *1227 in Q1 2011 and gains possibly leading into the *1400 range

NEW Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJW...eature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

ananda77

07-12-2010, 07:42 AM

Stocktiming.com -data point 06 December 2010-

the Bull market is still in place and getting ahead of itself due to the high levels of inflowing Liquidity being injected. From historical standards, we will soon need a 3% GDP level for the markets to be in balance relative to the current levels of Liquidity

today: Feds Lacker: growth above 3% in 2011

Trader update -data point 06 December 2010-

...the SPX 500 appears to try to hang on consolidating just above December 2 High *1222_below the November 9 High *1227 but risks of a near term roll-over still cannot be ruled out

...if the market remains unable to push the November 9 Peak *1227 out of the way, look for a brief sell-off to retest the November 16 Low *1173_the weekly 6-month trendline support *1146

...a bullish reversal from*1173_*1146 trendline support should set the market up for a multi-month rally with potential for a bullish break-out above *1227 in Q1 2011 and gains possibly leading into the *1400 range

NEW Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJW...eature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

ananda77

08-12-2010, 08:00 AM

Stocktiming.com -data point 07 December 2010-

http://i53.tinypic.com/28rd5iw.jpg
Long Term Trending Fed_Foreign Liquidity Inflows above November 19 High with resulting upward price pressure in the markets

Trader update -data point 07 December 2010-

...the SPX 500 posted a broadbased bullish move past the November High *1227 and appears to continue to the SPX 500 projected target *1244/*1247

http://i51.tinypic.com/30u5leg.jpg

with potential to hit upper channel resistance current *1157 on the daily 3-month time frame (September 11 High 2008)

...failing below *1250 introduces risk for a brief sell-off to retest *1173 over the next several weeks to establish a stronger market floor

... ...a bullish reversal from *1173 support should set the market up for a multi-month rally with potential for a bullish break-out above *1250 in Q1 2011 and gains possibly leading into the *1400 range

NEW -Renaissance 2 http://www.csper.org/renaissance-20.html
-Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJW...eature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

ananda77

09-12-2010, 07:28 AM

Trader update -data point 08 December 2010-

…the SPX 500 moderating slightly from the December7 High *1235 but downticks have not done much damage so far
Above the November 11 High *1215, a run-up to the projected target *1244/*1247 including the potential to hit upper channel resistance *1257 on the daily 3-month time frame remains a possibility, but trade may start to thin out as year end approaches

...failing below *1250 introduces risk for a brief sell-off to retest *1173 over the next several weeks to establish a stronger market floor

... ...a bullish reversal from *1173 support should set the market up for a multi-month rally with potential for a bullish break-out above *1250 in Q1 2011 and gains possibly leading into the *1400 range

NEW -Renaissance 2 http://www.csper.org/renaissance-20.html
-Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJW...eature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

ananda77

10-12-2010, 06:29 PM

Trader update -data point 09 December 2010-

http://i52.tinypic.com/2en4yvd.jpg
...by the end of todays session, the SPX 500 recovered all of the December 7 sell-off and closed the session *1233

http://i56.tinypic.com/2lo54eu.png
more near term upside is expected with Institutions now in accumulation. Be aware, volume comes in thinner as traders take off for holidays

.......failing below *1250 introduces risk for a brief sell-off to retest *1173 over the next several weeks to establish a stronger market floor

... ...a bullish reversal from *1173 support should set the market up for a multi-month rally with potential for a bullish break-out above *1250 in Q1 2011 and gains possibly leading into the *1400 range

NEW -Renaissance 2 http://www.csper.org/renaissance-20.html
-Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJW...eature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

Phaedrus

10-12-2010, 07:31 PM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP1210.gif

ananda77

11-12-2010, 08:02 AM

Trader update -data point 09 December 2010-

...the SPX 500 now trading above the December 7 High *1235 and with market internals constructive, appears to continue the run-up to the projected target *1244/*1247 including the potential to reach out to the 3-month upper channel resistance current *1267 in the daily time frame

http://i51.tinypic.com/s2qiyd.jpg
...the index continues to be played in heavily overbought territory in all but the 1-year weekly. The ARMS index shows the market most overbought level in 68 years*

...as a result, risk for a substantial pullback from *1250/*1274 over the next few weeks could target the lower channel support current *1188 as a minimum

...a bullish reversal from the *1188 level should set the market up for a multi-month rally with potential for a bullish break-out above *1250/*1267 in Q1 2011 with gains leading into the *1400 range possible

NEWRenaissance 2 http://www.csper.org/renaissance-20.html
-Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJW...eature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

ananda77

11-12-2010, 12:28 PM

A77, Can't see any pullback of the order you suggest this side of Christmas. Just too much good new around and bond traffic is pretty much one way at present - outflow. 1250 by YE is back on the cards ...

Belgarion:

...as a result, risk for a substantial pullback from *1250/*1274 over the next few weeks could target the lower channel support current *1188 as a minimum.

Anyway portfolio profit now locked 75%. Wonder when I will go to 100%, but have some ideas

Kind Regards

ananda77

11-12-2010, 07:45 PM

Belgarion:

...as a result, risk for a substantial pullback from *1250/*1274 over the next few weeks could target the lower channel support current *1188 as a minimum.

Anyway portfolio profit now locked 75%. Wonder when I will go to 100%, but have some ideas

Kind Regards

...by the way, Belgarion, lets not forget that its the general publics leg now, nudged along by the profesionals (props, hedges, Fed_Foreign) in unison with the press trumpets. At some stage, the professional support will end as the commercials are now 'short' approaching extreme levels

Kind Regards

ananda77

13-12-2010, 06:35 PM

...a bullish December so far and triple witching option expiration coming up next week.

http://i52.tinypic.com/206oe4n.png
Historically and statistically in this regard, it is interesting:

-the SPX 500 closed out Decembers triple witching week with a gain on 21 out of the last 26 occurrences (or 87.50% of the time), thereof 8 of the last 9
-since 1984, the SPX 500 lost more than -0.75% on the week only once in 2000
-downside potential was regularly limited. The SPX 500 lost more than -2.0% on the week only once in 2000 and
-the SPX 500 never looked back and did not post a single close below the previous end-of-week close (max. loss is positive) on 9 out of 36 occurrences (or 25% of the time)

...not a good time to run a 'mean reversion tendency' strategy for the last week in December

Kind Regards

winner69

14-12-2010, 07:12 AM

Is this time different

The following set of conditions is one way to capture the basic "overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields" syndrome:

1) S&P 500 more than 8% above its 52 week (exponential) average
2) S&P 500 more than 50% above its 4-year low
3) Shiller P/E greater than 18
4) 10-year Treasury yield higher than 6 months earlier
5) Advisory bullishness > 47%, with bearishness < 27% (Investor's Intelligence)

These are observationally equivalent to criteria I noted in the July 16, 2007 comment, A Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest. The Shiller P/E is used in place of the price/peak earnings ratio (as the latter can be corrupted when prior peak earnings reflect unusually elevated profit margins). Also, it's sufficient for the market to have advanced substantially from its 4-year low, regardless of whether that advance represents a 4-year high. I've added elevated bullish sentiment with a 20 point spread to capture the "overbullish" part of the syndrome, which doesn't change the set of warnings, but narrows the number of weeks at each peak to the most extreme observations].

The historical instances corresponding to these conditions are as follows:

December 1972 - January 1973 (followed by a 48% collapse over the next 21 months) August - September 1987 (followed by a 34% plunge over the following 3 months)

July 1998 (followed abruptly by an 18% loss over the following 3 months)

July 1999 (followed by a 12% market loss over the next 3 months)

January 2000 (followed by a spike 10% loss over the next 6 weeks)

March 2000 (followed by a spike loss of 12% over 3 weeks, and a 49% loss into 2002) July 2007 (followed by a 57% market plunge over the following 21 months)

January 2010 (followed by a 7% "air pocket" loss over the next 4 weeks) April 2010 (followed by a 17% market loss over the following 3 months)

December 2010

Since Investor's Intelligence data is not available prior to the mid-1960's, we get a few additional observations if we drop the "overbullish" criteria in prior years. These include December 1961 (followed by a 28% market loss over the following 6 months) and a few quick market plunges in the mid-1950's. I've excluded these in the list above because we don't have associated sentiment readings.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc101213.htm

ananda77

14-12-2010, 07:40 AM

Stocktiming.com -data point 13 December 2010-

http://i53.tinypic.com/6qgxsz.jpg
...institutional Core Holding approaching overhead resistance

Trader update -data point 13 December 2010-

...the SPX 500 extending its bullish breakout above the December 7 High *1235 to its best levels since Sep 2008 and the rally appears incomplete
The market is currently trading at the lower end of the projected *1244/*1247 target and closing in on the the 3-month daily upper channel resistance current *1269 situated just below the September 2008 High *1274

http://i51.tinypic.com/s2qiyd.jpg
...the index continues to be played in heavily overbought territory in all but the 1-year weekly. The ARMS index shows the market most overbought level in 68 years. 10-year Ts now 3.3% approaching 4%

...as a result, risk for a substantial pullback from *1250/*1274 over the next few weeks could target the lower channel support current *1190 as a minimum

...a bullish reversal from the *1190 level should set the market up for a multi-month rally with potential for a bullish break-out above *1250/*1267 in Q1 2011 with gains leading into the *1400 range possible

NEWRenaissance 2 http://www.csper.org/renaissance-20.html
-Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJW...eature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

ananda77

15-12-2010, 07:21 AM

Trader update -data point 14 December 2010-

...The SPX 500 edging higher but appears to develope an inside day. Still, its bullish breakout above the December 7 High *1235 remains intact and the rally appears incomplete so far. The market is currently challenging the projected *1244/*1247 target and closing in on the the 3-month daily upper channel resistance current *1269 situated just below the September 2008 High *1274

http://i51.tinypic.com/s2qiyd.jpg
...the index continues to be played in heavily overbought territory in all but the 1-year weekly. The ARMS index shows the market most overbought level in 68 years. 10-year Ts approaching 4%

...as a result, risk for a substantial pullback from *1250/*1274 over the next few weeks could target the lower channel support current *1190 as a minimum

...a bullish reversal from the *1190 level should set the market up for a multi-month rally with potential for a bullish break-out above *1250/*1267 in Q1 2011 with gains leading into the *1400 range possible

NEWRenaissance 2 http://www.csper.org/renaissance-20.html
-Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJW...eature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

ananda77

15-12-2010, 12:10 PM

10 year Treasury yeild suggests another stampede for the exits ... Overlaying the 10 yr note and the SP500 ... I'd suggest A77 that your 1250/1274 range for a pullback might need to go a tad higher. How about 1275/1300?

...fine with me, but lets take out the lower first and who knows, *1147 still stands with fund managers starting to take profits

Kind Regards

ananda77

15-12-2010, 06:36 PM

Belgarion:

http://i54.tinypic.com/5vsqgy.png
...the second day featuring weak daily market internals; especially, the steady rise in new Lows numbers suggests profit taking_selling into strength strategies

...as far as the SPX 500_T10 is concerned, the inflection point for the pair remains at T10-4% = 0.6% to go

Kind Regards

ananda77

16-12-2010, 04:54 PM

Trader Update -data point 15 December 2010-

...the SPX 500 drifted lower in a mixed market but the index remains above daily trendline support current *1133 since stalling out at the December 13 High *1247 each of the past two days. Todays market internals deteriorated from yesterday and fail to inspire confidence for further upside this side of 2010

...from a technical perpesctive however, above *1035, the bullish breakout above the December 7 High *1235 remains intact and consequently, there is still potential for the market to stretch higher to test the Sep 2008 High *1274

http://i51.tinypic.com/s2qiyd.jpg
...the index continues to be played in heavily overbought territory, signposted by the ARMS index showing a market most overbought level in 68 years. 10-year Ts approaching 4%

...as a result, risk for a substantial pullback from *1250/*1274 over the next few weeks could target the lower channel support current *1194 as a minimum

...a bullish reversal from the *1190 level should set the market up for a multi-month rally with potential for a bullish break-out above *1250/*1274 in Q1 2011 with gains leading into the *1400 range possible

NEWRenaissance 2 http://www.csper.org/renaissance-20.html
-Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJW...eature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

ananda77

17-12-2010, 07:36 AM

Trader update -data point 16 December 2010-

...the SPX 500 managed to remain in bullish territory with a bounce off todays *1233 support and currently trades above *1240 resistance. Todays market internals so far feature a bulish bias, suggesting a Close above *1240.
If so, the market is on track to take out the projected *1244/*1247 target in an attempt to challenge the daily 3-month upper channel resistance current *1273_September 2008 High *1274

http://i51.tinypic.com/s2qiyd.jpg
...the index continues to be played in heavily overbought territory signposted by the ARMS index showing a market most overbought level in 68 years. 10-year Ts approaching 4%

...as a result, risk for a substantial pullback from *1250/*1274 over the next few weeks could target the lower channel support current *1190 as a minimum

...a bullish reversal from the *1194 level should set the market up for a multi-month rally with potential for a bullish break-out above *1250/*1267 in Q1 2011 with gains leading into the *1400 range possible

NEWRenaissance 2 http://www.csper.org/renaissance-20.html
-Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJW...eature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

Phaedrus

17-12-2010, 09:14 AM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP1217.gif

Entrep

17-12-2010, 09:29 AM

ananda77 and Phaedrus your updates are most appreciated thanks

ananda77

18-12-2010, 07:03 AM

SEASONS GREETINGS. WISHING ALL A SUCCESSFUL NEW YEAR

Trader update -data point 17 December 2010-

...the SPX 500 appears to be consolidating between this weeks High *1247 and the December 16 Low *1233 and as long as the bullish breakout above the December 7 High *1235 remains intact, there is still potential for the market to stretch higher to take out the projected *1244/*1247 target in an attempt to challenge the daily 3-month upper channel resistance current *1273_September 2008 High *1274

...the index continues to be played in heavily overbought territory signposted by the ARMS index showing a market most overbought level in 68 years. 10-year Ts approaching 4%

...as a result, risk for a substantial pullback from *1250/*1274 over the next few weeks could target the lower channel support current *1194 as a minimum

...a bullish reversal from the *1194 level should set the market up for a multi-month rally with potential for a bullish break-out above *1250/*1267 in Q1 2011 with gains leading into the *1400 range possible

NEWRenaissance 2 http://www.csper.org/renaissance-20.html
-Bank Of North Dakota http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0rJW...eature=related 22 November 2010
-The Secrect of Oz http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...itical-complex 16 November 2010
-The End Of Liberty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ 12 November 2010
-Zeitgeist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKX9TWRyfs 03 November 2010

Kind Regards

winner69

24-12-2010, 07:31 AM

3128Jeez .... I thought this secular bear msrket would be over in 4 -5 years but looks like it might last another 10 years

Chart of the day again
Chart of the Day
Today's chart compares the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 performance during the current secular bear market (the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 peaked in 2000) to the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 performance following the peak of 1929 (i.e. during the Great Depression). For today's chart, both the 2000 to present S&P 500 (blue line) and the 1929-1949 S&P 500 (gray line) having been normalized to where each of their peaks begin in year zero and at the $100 level. What is of interest is not that both of these markets had declines and rallies of equal magnitude -- they did not. What is of interest is that both bear markets have tended to head in the same direction for approximately the same amount of time. For example, both bear markets suffered through a major decline during the first 2 1/2 years and then rallied sharply into year seven. Both markets then formed a major peak in year seven and declined sharply in the middle of the eighth year. Both bear markets have continued to follow a similar path following the eighth year trough. However, if this similarity in direction were to continue, the current stock market rally would need to close out in fairly short order.
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20101222.htm?T

ananda77

12-01-2011, 07:59 AM

http://i51.tinypic.com/2n0izk5.png

Trader Update -data point 11 January 2011-

...yesterday, the SPX 500 traded off the January 4 Low *1163_December 31 congestion *1256 support range but so far has been sold off below the January 6 High *1278 resistance

...still, above trading support *1256/*1263, chances are for the SPX 500 to attempt to eclipse *1278 in another attempt to head towards the *1300 Psych Barrier with current *1311 upper resistance looming overhead on the 3-mth daily set-up

...a sharp pull back is expected in the *1300/*1311 range, tolerating irrational exuberance up to *1340 before hedging a fully invested portfolio 100% (+)

...shake-out target: *1186

Kind Regards

ananda77

13-01-2011, 07:08 AM

http://i51.tinypic.com/2n0izk5.png

Trader Update -data point 12 January 2011-

...the SPX 500 eclipsed the January 6 High *1278 in a decisive break-out, on track towards the *1300 Psych Barrier with current *1314 upper resistance looming overhead on the 3-mth daily trading set-up

...a sharp pull back is expected in the *1300/*1314 range, tolerating irrational exuberance up to *1344 before hedging a fully invested portfolio to 100% (+)

...shake-out target: *1186

Kind Regards

ananda77

14-01-2011, 07:30 AM

http://i51.tinypic.com/2n0izk5.png

Trader Update -data point 13 January 2011-

...so far, the SPX 500 recovered from an early, intraday Low *1282, trading the flatline to consolidate yesterdays gains. Sustaining price above the January 6 High *1278 break-out, the index remains on track towards the *1300 Psych Barrier with current *1316 upper resistance looming overhead on the 3-mth daily trading set-up

Note: while Fed induced liquidity inflows create a boyant market, institutional selling action is short-term trending up, suggesting an impending correction

...a sharp pull back is expected in the *1300/*1314 range, tolerating irrational exuberance up to *1344 before hedging a fully invested portfolio to 100% (+)

...shake-out target: *1186

Kind Regards

ananda77

15-01-2011, 05:23 AM

...for updates: http://spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...updating becoming a lot quicker since writing, pasting, downloading, linking, archiving, etc. can all be done from one location. Appears to save an hour/day.

Kind Regards

ananda77

18-01-2011, 09:18 AM

-data point January 2011-

...SPX 500 long term view updated: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

Kind Regards

ananda77

19-01-2011, 09:11 AM

...SPX 500 updated: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

Kind Regards

Phaedrus

19-01-2011, 09:45 AM

Generally speaking :-
See how it pays to be 100% invested when the plot is green.
See how yellow warns of increasing weakness.
See how it pays not to buy when the plot is red.
See how the best time to buy is when the plot is light green.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP119.gif

ananda77

20-01-2011, 07:39 AM

...update posted -data point 26 January 2011- http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

Kind Regards

ananda77

29-01-2011, 09:29 PM

...update before market Open 28 January 2011: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

-.inflowing liquidity levels remain in high expansion territory
-increasing short-term institutional accumulation
-leadership stock ratio increasing to +1.65

...however,

- risk from Institutional selling higher, moving continuously closer to distribution since December 2010

[...as usual, it always pays to be hedged, no matter how strong an up-trend may look like on lagging indicators, if institutions are that close to distribution levels
(supporting chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com ) ]

update 3.5 hrs into session:

...the market lost its grip on the SPX 500 *1300 psych barrier, likely been spooked by continued unrest in the Middle East, but could just as easily be the beginning of a correction brewing in the pipeline for some time.

...the obvious immediate target below first line support *1292 sits at the January 11 Low *1270. A violation of *1270 will signal further weakness ahead with the January 10 key support *1260 a 'Must Hold' to avoid a deeper sell-off with current *1224 trend line support in the 6-month weekly trading set-up as a minimum target

Kind Regards

evilroyrule

31-01-2011, 08:27 PM

hello mr p,

if you had a mo, cld you kindly update us. dark green/light green or otherwise???:mellow:

Phaedrus

01-02-2011, 10:14 AM

I just can't stop improving this thing!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP21.gif

See how a simple 100 day moving average gives essentially the same basic information.
You don't need me, my MSI, or my charts.

Toulouse - Luzern

01-02-2011, 12:34 PM

S&P shrugs off Egyption Financial Crisis EFC ...
Stimulus works ...?

Hoop

01-02-2011, 01:31 PM

S&P shrugs off Egyption Financial Crisis EFC ...
Stimulus works ...?

..and so they should shrug it off quickly

Egypt is the 40th biggest economy in the world ...only 1.5 times bigger than NZ's economy which ranks 51st (IMF)

Just a speck in the grand scheme of things really.

If you look at the table** the PIIGS combined are x20 larger than Egypts economy. Italy and Spain are very big economies ranked 7th and 12th largest economies in the world respectively.... therefore concern over their future is a valid European and global worry.

**Table of the world rankings of the biggest economies (by countries) in the world (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29)

As for oil producing countries Egypt ranks 28th in the world and provides x10 as much oil as New Zealand which is ranked 57th in the world...now this is 2008 data and I think NZ produces a lot more oil now than then.

***Table of the world rankings of countries producing Oil (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production)

peat

01-02-2011, 01:48 PM

I would think its not so much about Egypt as a stand alone economy - its a barometer of the Arab world AND Egypt controls the Suez canal which most of the worlds oil travels through.

Hoop

01-02-2011, 02:10 PM

I would think its not so much about Egypt as a stand alone economy - its a barometer of the Arab world AND Egypt controls the Suez canal which most of the worlds oil travels through.

A flea controlling the dog usually has a much shortened life..huh Peat.
Can't imagine Egypt surviving economically if it goes against it's powerful allies. Europe USA Australia Canada Israel Saudi Arabia even NZ. The Arabs know that.

ananda77

01-02-2011, 06:32 PM

Phaedrus: MSI Mk XVII - New 8 colour version.

Hi Phaedrus; ...just joking really...but how much better does a 5-blade shaver shave versus a 4-blade shaver?...just joking really...

...anyway, this mornings update on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com (for charts)

Trader Update -data point 31 January 2011

...Fidays fall to intraday Low *1266 left a heavily overbought market short term followed by an attempt of consolidating some of last weeks losses in todays session

However, with institutions in distribution, todays bounce is likely to be limited to the *1291/*1295 resistance level with increasing corrective downside potential if failing below resistance
,
Note: liquidity inflows remain in high expansion territory with a noticeable down tick, but the market is unlikely to go into panic mode under this condition. The leadership stock ratio +0.02 reads a bull_bear draw
.
...a closing violation of the January 11 Low *1270 will signal further weakness ahead with the January 10 key support *1260 a 'Must Hold' to avoid a deeper sell-off with current *1224 trend line support in the 6-month weekly trading set-up as a minimum target

Kind Regards

ananda77

02-02-2011, 05:26 PM

...this mornings update on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com (no charts) read:

Trader Update -data point 01 February 2011

...the SPX 500 surged past the *1291/*1295 resistance level, currently trading comfortably above the *1300 Psych barrier

...the next target above *1300 features the August 2008 High *1313 and upper channel resistance current *1335 on the 6-month weekly trading set-up

..looking further ahead, the index appears to be heading all the way towards the *1420 measured objective. However, the current *1335 level on the 6-month weekly trading set-up coincides with the 75% retracement of the 2007_2009 break and may turn out to be another potential turning point for a bearish reversal

Kind Regards

SPX 500 Long Term View posted on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com (1 charts) read:

- SPX 500 new weekly High

-trend remains up

-monthly C-RSI comparatively low relative to previous two Bull markets

NOTE: last week's tick was very high relative to the red trend line again. Index getting ahead of itself and needs to moderate with a bottom tick that touches the red trend line. This remains a Bull market condition showing an increasing out-of-balance condition that will need to return to balance fairly soon

Kind Regards

ananda77

03-02-2011, 07:08 PM

Trader Update -data point 02 February 2011-

...the SPX 500 moving closer to its apex end of February with risk of volatility increasing (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

...although institutions switched back to accumulation, the selling into strength up-trend remains (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Note: caution condition remains in the the market until institutional selling changes to downtrend

...the SPX 500 trades modestly lower with no technical damage so far. Above daily trend line support *1292 and short term momentum support *1298, the market remains poised to head higher for a challenge of the August 2008 High *1313 and upper channel resistance current *1335 on the 6-month weekly trading set-up

Note: todays uptick power clearly indicates selling into strength with overall daily market internals tilting to bearish. This is not a look for a splendid new advance, but rather the look of topping out soon

..looking further ahead, the index appears to be heading all the way towards the *1420 measured objective in the longer term.
However, the current *1335 level on the 6-month weekly trading set-up coincides with the 75% retracement of the 2007_2009 break and may turn out to be another potential turning point for a bearish reversal towards the end of February
.
Kind Regards

ananda77

05-02-2011, 08:03 AM

institutional accumulation is in a down trend since December 2010 and they started selling into stength since January 6. Ar present, both accumulation and distribution is at an inflection point and as a result, the market is flatlining for a third straight day so far

Trader Update -data point 04 February 2011-

...institutional accumulation improved further but remains in a technical downtrend started December 2010 (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

...VIX below 15.23 signals additional bullish upside potential (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Note: Leadership ratio reading a low +1.72

...the SPX 500 continues flatlining and for the third straight day, daily market internals display a bearish tilt.

..,however, closing above the Jan 28 Peak *1303 leaves the door for additional gains open for a challenge of the August 2008 High *1313 and upper channel resistance current *1344 on the 6-month weekly trading set-up

...looking further ahead, the index appears to be heading all the way towards the *1420 measured objective in the longer term

...but the current *1344 level on the 6-month weekly trading set-up coincides with the 75% retracement of the 2007_2009 break and may turn out to be another potential turning point for a bearish reversal towards the end of February

Kind Regards

ananda77

08-02-2011, 05:43 PM

...institutions in low level up-trending accumulation (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

...VIX below 15.23 signals additional bullish upside potential (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Note: liquidity in high expansion territory with small downtick Friday. Leadership stock ratio a low +1.48 reading.

...the SPX 500 pushed higher today past the August 2008 High *1313 amidst supportive internals, leaving the bullish near-term outlook intact

...next on the list of possible new highs reads current *1328 momentum_*1332 upper channel resistance in the hourly trading set-up closing in fast on the 75% retrace of the 2007-2009 Break_*1347 upper channel resistance on the 6-month weekly trading set-up

Note: risk for a sharp pullback increasing near resistance levels

Kind Regards

ananda77

09-02-2011, 06:41 PM

Trader Update -data point 08 February 2011-

...institutions increasing accumulation (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

...institutional 'Core' holdings pushing to extreme 4-sigma level (Bollinger 20.4.4) (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Note: one way or another, balance is re-established over time

...the SPX 500 managed another 52-week High *1323 remaining comfortably above the August 2008 High *1313; above *1313, the bullish near-term outlook remains and signals further gains possible

...next on the list of possible new highs reads current *1337 upper channel resistance in the hourly trading set-up closing in fast on the 75% retrace of the 2007-2009 Break *1348_*1347 upper channel resistance on the 6-month weekly trading set-up

Note: risk for a sharp pullback increasing near resistance levels

Kind Regards

ananda77

10-02-2011, 05:37 PM

Trader Update -data point 09 February 2011-

...institutions continued to accumulate yesterday; close to switch to technical uptrend; but (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

...intraday liquidity at extremel level; and (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

...'Core' holding pushing the 4-sigma level (Bollinger 20-4-4) (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Note: long term liquidity in high expansion territory; leadership stock ratio a low +2.60 advantage to bulls

[ 67.1% hedged ]

...the SPX trades moderately lower to intraday Low *1317 on chunky down volume. Advance/Decline ratio 1:2 and uptick power off the August 2008 Peak *1313 area subdued so far. ;Above *1313, the bullish near-term outlook remains and signals further gains possible

......next on the list of possible new highs reads current *1341 upper channel resistance in the hourly trading set-up closing in fast on the 75% retrace of the 2007-2009 Break *1348_*1347 upper channel resistance on the 6-month weekly trading set-up

...on the flipside, a violation of *1313 would motivate the market to test the February 2 Low *1300 with potential further downside into the *1275/*1294 key support range

Kind Regards

ananda77

15-02-2011, 04:45 PM

...institutions in accumulation with a test of the technical downtrend expected (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

- Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows in high expansion territory

...VIX 15.69 Close Friday = above 15.23 support moving towards apex - leadership ratio reads a +2.03 low positive bullish advantage (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

...heading into option expirations week, the SPX 500 set a new intraday 52-week High *1332 so far, leaving the friendly tone for further advances intact

...chances are, the index will continue to head higher towards the 75% retrace of the 2007-2009 Break *1348_current *1354 upper channel resistance on the 6-month weekly trading set-up within the next couple of weeks

...however, despite the unbroken 'back-up the truck mentality' every time the market dips, closing in on overhead resistance levels, vulnerabilities increase for a sharp bearish breakdown

Note: basically think, the market about to sideways - up to target - then crack down

Kind Regards

ananda77

16-02-2011, 05:47 PM

(no chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

...the SPX 500 reversed lower in today's session for a test of *1325 short term trend line support and appears to switch into consolidation mode, with trading likely limited to range between:

February 14 High *1332_February 10 Low *1311

...above the February 10 Low *1311, the bullish bias remains intact to head higher towards the 75% retrace of the 2007-2009 Break *1348_current *1354 upper channel resistance on the 1-yr weekly trading set-up within the next couple of weeks

...a violation of the February 10 Low *1311 would signal weakness with view for a test of the *1303/*1294 key support range

Kind Regards

ananda77

17-02-2011, 05:27 PM

Long Term Trading Environment:

-the SPX 500 remains in very strong bullish territory
-Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows in High Expansion Territory
-Institutions in accumulation

Confirming Short Term Strength:

-C-RSI 9 above C-RSI 30

Trader Update - data point 16 February 2011 -

...the SPX 500 stong advance to a new 52-week High *1338 intraday got clobbered by geo-political Israel_Iran concerns, but losses have been limited. The index currently holds at the February High *1333

...holding *1333, the market will buid upside on strength and remains on track higher towards the 75% retrace of the 2007-2009 Break *1348_current *1354 upper channel resistance on the 1-yr weekly trading set-up within the next couple of weeks

...however, chances are, the consolidating stance will continue into op-ex Friday.with trading likely limited to range between:

February 16 High *1338_February 10 Low *1311

...at present, a Close below *1311 appears unlikely

Kind Regards

visit: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com for morning session updates

ananda77

18-02-2011, 12:45 PM

Long Term Trading Environment:

-the SPX 500 remains in very strong bullish territory
-Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows in High Expansion Territory
-Institutions increasing accumulation

Confirming Short Term Strength:

-Leadership stock ratio higher, reading +2.78 advantage to bulls
-C-RSI 9 above C-RSI 30 _ C-RSI 4 above C-RSI 9

Trader Update - data point 17 February 2011 -

...obviously, it wasn't the majority of investors that got irritated by weak employment numbers and consequently headed for the exits in the opening session today. Fact is, in a financialized economy, falling employment is Wall Street's icing on the cake

...after opening the session down to intraday *1331, the SPX 500 currently pushing to knock the February 14 High *1338 flat with market internals constructive

...beyond *1338, the index will tack higher towards the 75% retrace of the 2007-2009 Break *1348_current *1363 upper channel resistance on the 1-yr weekly trading set-up

...however, as the index approaches key resistance in the 1-yr wk trade setup. the market becomes highly vulnerable to a bearish shake-out

Kind Regards

visit: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com for morning session updates

Phaedrus

19-02-2011, 12:17 PM

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/sp219.gif

ananda77

19-02-2011, 10:24 PM

Trading Environment:

-the SPX 500 remains in very strong bullish territory
-Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows in High Expansion Territory
-Institutions increasing accumulation (higher high ends technical downtrend) (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Confirming Short Term Strength

-Leadership stock ratio higher, reading +3.48 advantage to bulls
-C-RSI 9 above C-RSI 30 _ C-RSI 4 above C-RSI 9

Caution: intraday liquidity flows at extreme levels

Trader Update - data point 18 February 2011 -

..the SPX 500 in striking distance of the 75% retrace of the 2007-2009 Break *1348_current *1365 upper channel resistance on the 1-yr weekly trading set-up. So far in today's session, the market continued higher - no mucking around -setting another 52-wk High *1344 intraday so far

...the index now in key resistance territory, a platform from where a sharp, bearish strike may be delivered to an overly complacent trading community. The logic of a 'Lock-In profit' strategy makes sense, subject to further development. *** Bingo ***

Kind Regards

visit: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com for morning session updates

ananda77

19-02-2011, 10:52 PM

Caution: Today's Divergent Session Internals (Display on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Kind Regards

Entrep

22-02-2011, 08:41 AM

Markets did the same thing for a day or two with Egypt recently and look how we recovered. Not to say I won't be watching things closely.

Hoop

22-02-2011, 10:25 AM

Markets did the same thing for a day or two with Egypt recently and look how we recovered. Not to say I won't be watching things closely.

Spot on Entrap.

Refering to the DOW S&P500 etc ..its been a common topic lately that a bull market rally is nearing its correction point...so any excuse will do

ananda77

23-02-2011, 01:15 PM

Trader Update - data point 22 February 2011 -

Trading Environment:

-above the February 10 Low *1311, the bullish bias remains intact
-a Close below *1311 signals potential weakness ahead
-futures signal support at February 7 High *1322

Today 's Session:

...the SPX 500 slowly burning down to the February 10 *1311_August 2008 Peak *1313 firebreak. A successful test would keep bullish sentiment burning and confirm, the long weekend bear strike contained with a bullish first dip buying splash

...past the firebreak, risks for further downside are substantial featuring the January 28 High *1303 as the next target initially

Kind Regards

visit: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com for morning session updates

Entrep

24-02-2011, 09:26 AM

Hmmm, seeing a little bit of late session buying (as seen in recoveries over the past few weeks). Would want to see another full session down finishing near the lows in order to consider going short and a finish under 1300. As it is I am out of all my US positions though - happy to take profit. Half decent finish in the US today might give me a chance to lighten up on my AU positions today too.

ananda77

24-02-2011, 11:17 AM

Trader Update - 23 February 2011 -
Trading Environment:

-market remains in Up-condition
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows in high expansion territory with a chunky downtick
-new lows: 14 signal no panic selling for now

Confirming short-term weakness:

-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _ C-RSI 4 below C-RSI 9
-Leadership stock ratio reads +0.43 very low positive bullish advantage

-breakout needs to be confirmed with 22.6_23.9 being top resistance levels for a sideways range (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com )

Today's Session:

...the SPX 500 extending its slide with a violation of the February 10 *1311_August 2008 Peak *1313. at present testing the January 28 High *1303

...if the index is unable to bounce off coinciding lower channel support on the dly. 3-mth trading setup, expect further downside for a test of the February 3 Low *1294_February 1 Low *1286 support range

...a successful defense in the *1294/*1286/*1283 support range is expected, providing the foundation for another 6-8 week rally towards upper channel resistance current *1366; potential to reach out to hit the *1420 measured objective

Kind Regards

ananda77

25-02-2011, 09:27 AM

Update - data point 24 February 2011 -

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 remains in Up-condition with positive strength (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

-institutions essentially neutral (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows in high expansion territory 'weakening'
-New Lows: 24 remain below danger 26-zone
-Index futures bounced off the *1294/*1286/*1283 support range
-Bias returns positive above *1320 Close

Confirming short term weakness:

-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _ C-RSI 4 below C-RSI 9
-Leadership stock ratio reads +0.11 very low positive bullish advantage

Today's Session:

...the SPX 500 within striking distance of the *1294/*1286/*1283 support range, currently holding the *1300 Psych barrier

...chances are, the index will follow script to go through a brief test in the support zone, before resuming its upward trajectory. However, the index needs to clear the February 23 High *1322 on a Close basis to reassure an irritated market

...on the flipside, a closing violation below lower channel support in the dly. 6-mth. trading set-up would signal a deeper correction is already underway targeting the current *1259 trend line support in the wkl. 1-yr. trading set-up

Kind Regards

ananda77

26-02-2011, 09:52 PM

Trader Update - data point 25 February 2011 -

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 remains in Up-condition with positive C-RSI 7.07 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows 'weakening' in high expansion territory
-New Lows: 15 remain below danger 26-zone

-institutions in light distribution - danger zone - (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Confirming short term weakness:

-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _ C-RSI 4 below C-RSI 9
-Leadership stock ratio reads +0.08 dangerously low positive bullish advantage

Caution: market today needs to build on yesterdays improving tone with a VIX below 20 into the Close

Today's Session:

...the SPX 500 working its way up from the February 24 Low *1294 into the February 23 *1322 resistance_!325 congestion, in what appears to be the first leg of a corrective bounce

...a Close today above *1325 congestion will increase probabilities for the index to go to the races towards upper channel resistance current *1366 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup, potential to reach out to hit a *1420 measured objective without looking back

...however, risk are high, for the index to fail the February 23 *1322 resistance_!325 congestion. The subsequent down draft would target lower channel support current *1286 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup, potential to spike down to January 30 High *1275

...a successful defense of *1286/*1275 is expected which should provide the foundation for another rally into June with upper channel resistance current *1366 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup; potential to reach out to hit a *1420 measured objective

Kind Regards

ananda77

01-03-2011, 04:40 PM

Trader Update - data point 28 February 2011 -

Trading Environment:

-Instistutions moving along 'higher Low' trend, back in light accumulation (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows with an uptick in high expansion territory
-a VIX into Friday Close 19.22 introduces positive bias into market; the Saudi 'Day of Rage' proposed at March 11, a potential negative spike event ahead
-New Lows: 9 remain below danger 26-zone

Confirming short term weakness:

-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _ C-RSI 4 below C-RSI 9
-Leadership stock ratio reads +0.79 low positive bullish advantage

...the SPX 500 managed to move past the February 24 Low *1294 into the February 23 *1322 resistance_!325 congestion with an intraday High *1329 so far. Market internals are contructive but some selling stalled today's advance so far

...a Close above todays *1329 will set the index up for a re-test of the February 18 Peak *1344 before risks of downturn are again high

...on the flipside, if the index remains unable to settle above *1329, risks are high for a subsequent down draft that would target lower channel support current *1284 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup, potential to spike down to January 30 High *1275

...a successful defense of *1286/*1275 should provide the foundation for another rally into June with upper channel resistance current *1366 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup; potential to reach out to hit a *1420 measured objective

Kind Regards