Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 01 March 2011 -

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 remains in Up-condition with positive C-RSI 12.38 strength
-Institutions increasing accumulation
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows with an uptick in high expansion territory
-VIX Close 18.35 signals positive market bias
-New Lows: 13 remain below danger 26-zone
-Leadership stock ratio: +1.20 building positive bullish advantage

Confirming weakness:

-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _ C-RSI 4 below C-RSI 9
-the Saudi 'Day of Rage' proposed at March 11 -a potential negative spike event ahead-

Today's session:

...the SPX 500 extended briefly its reach towards the February 18 Peak *1344 with an intraday High *1332 at the Open but stalled under selling pressure

...like at yesterday's *1329, the index signals weakness below today's *1332 with risk increasing for a subsequent down draft that would target lower channel support current *1292 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup_February 1 Low *1286_ potential to spike down to January 30 High *1275

...a successful defense of *1292/ *1286/*1275 should provide the foundation for another rally into June with upper channel resistance current *1379 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup; potential to reach out to hit a *1420 measured objective

...on the flip side, a Close above *1332 will set the index up for a re-test of the February 18 Peak *1344 before risks of downturn are again high

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 02 March 2011 -

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 remains in Up-condition with positive C-RSI 30 +5.97 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows 'weakening' in high expansion territory
-New Lows: 15 remain below danger 26-zone
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.28 positive bullish advantage

Confirming weakness:

-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _ C-RSI 4 below C-RSI 9
-VIX Close 21.01 above 20 resistance signals increasing market stress_D/Vol sideways conflict
-Institutions in low Distribution (close to test bull market support in 'Core') (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-the Saudi 'Day of Rage' proposed at March 11 -a potential negative spike event ahead-

Caution: SPX 500 up-condition in danger

Today's Session:

...the SPX 500 trading in positive territory to intraday High *1314 just above the August 2008 Peak *1313. The market so far manages to consolidate some of yesterday's losses above short term *1303 support, but selling into strength appears in today's internals at present

...above short term *1303 support, the current bounce appears determined enough to test the February 27 High *1319_February 23 High *1322_*1325 congestion before exhaustion sets in

...however, below March 1 High *1332, risk is high for a subsequent down draft that would target lower channel support current *1292 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup_February 1 Low *1286_ potential to spike down to January 30 High *1275

...a successful defense of *1292/ *1286/*1275 should provide the foundation for another rally into June with upper channel resistance current *1379 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup; potential to reach out to hit a *1420 measured objective

...on the flipside, a surprise Close above *1332 will set the index up for a re-test of the February 18 Peak *1344 before risks of a downturn are again high

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 03 March 2011 -

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 remains in Up-condition with positive C-RSI 30 +6,55 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows at 'weakened level' in high expansion territory
-New Lows: 17 remain below danger 26-zone
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.37 positive bullish advantage

Confirming weakness:

-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _ C-RSI 4 below C-RSI 9
-VIX Close 20.07 above 20 resistance signals increasing market stress with D/Vol sideways conflict
-Institutions neutral (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com) and (0.91% to bull market support in 'Core')
-the Saudi 'Day of Rage' proposed at March 11 -a potential negative spike event ahead-

Caution: SPX 500 up-condition at elevated risk level

Today's Session:

...the SPX 500 added more power to its bounce up from the February 25 Low *1294 and currently trades above the February 27 High *1319_February 23 High *1322_*1325 congestion, within striking distance of the March 1 High *1332

...below March 1 High *1332, risk remain for a subsequent down draft that would target lower channel support current *1294 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup_February 1 Low *1286_ potential to spike down to January 30 High *1275

...a successful defense of *1294/ *1286/*1275 should provide the foundation for another rally into June with upper channel resistance current *1379 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup; potential to reach out to hit a *1420 measured objective

...on the flip side, trading above *1332 will set the index up for a re-test of the February 18 Peak *1344 before risks of downturn are increasing again

Kind Regards

Update Session End:

...today's power rally confirms the February 24 Low *1294 as a bottom and the index is likely to follow through higher for a re-test of the February 18 Peak *1344 before risks of downturn are increasing again
A Close above the *1344 level introduces the potential for more upside targeting upper channel resistance current *1380 on the dly. 6-mth trading set-up with scope to reach towards the *1400 psych barrier coinciding with upper channel resistance in the 1yr. dly. trading setup

...however given the volatile trading environment and elevated risk of an exogenous shock out of North Africa and the Middle East, a consolidation between *1294/*1344 appears logical until the February 18 Peak eats dust

Kind Regards

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP34.gif

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 04 March 2011-

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 remains in Up-condition with positive C-RSI 30 +10.87 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows 'uptick' in high expansion territory
-Institutions switch to accumulate from neutral, potential for new uptrend (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-New Lows: 4 remain below danger 26-zone
-Leadership stock ratio: +1.65 positive bullish advantage
-VIX 18.60 below 20 current market stress level

Confirming weakness:

-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _ C-RSI
-the Saudi 'Day of Rage' proposed at March 11 -a potential negative spike event ahead-

Todays' Session

...the SPX 500 gapped down at the Open to test short term support *1320 but upticks above support were indecisive. Consequently, the index dived further to have a go at the August 2008 Peak support *1313, currently holding

...as expected in yesterday's update, the market appears to have to do more consolidating work between the lower channel support current *1295 on the dly. 6-mth trading setup and the February 18 Peak *1344 before a bullish break-out can occur

...given the volatile trading (reversal-reversal-reversal) environment and elevated risk of an exogenous shock out of North Africa and the Middle East, a top may be already in place, but needs to be confirmed with a decisive break below *1294

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update - 09 March 2011 -
Today's Session:

...for now, the SPX 500 remains rangebound within the triangles *1303/*1332 parameters,currently in an attempt to reach out to the *1332 resistance level

...failing again at resistance adds another layer of risk for a repeated sell-off with margins to the downside increasing to include lower channel support current *1296 in the dly. 6-mth. frame_the January 31 High *1287

...as institutions undecidedly moving in and out of accumulation/distribution and a VIX Close 20.66 pushing the market back into the stress zone. the sideways movement of D/Vol and a positive 20 New Lows (below the danger 26 level) reading suggests, the market may continue to consolidate

...Watch out for a decisive break below the February 24 Low *1294_the January 31 High *1287

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update - 09 March 2011 -

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 range bound_currently reach out to *1330 resistance (chart on http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-New Lows: 10 - below danger 26-zone - below panic zone 50 (+)
-SPX 500 in Up-condition_ C-RSI 30 +7.78 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows 'uptick' in high expansion territory
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.97 bullish advantage
-VIX 19.82 (current market stress level: 20) _ D/Vol sideways _ New Lows 10

Confirming weakness:

-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30
-institutions undecided in/out of accumulation/distribution
-U.S. Dollar holding major support
-the Saudi 'Day of Rage' proposed at March 11 -a potential negative spike event ahead-

Caution: USD -test _ March 11 Saudi 'Day of Rage' to be resolved this week

Today's Session:

...the SPX 500 recovered quickly from intraday Low *1312, but so far trades little changed from yesterday. The index appears range bound within the triangles *1303/*1332 parameter (the March 2 Low *1303_the Mar 3 Peak *1332)

...failing again at resistance would add another layer of risk for a repeated sell-off with margins to the downside increasing to include lower channel support current *1296 in the dly. 6-mth. frame_the January 31 High *1287

...while institutions are sitting on the fence, ready to jump either way, the market will have to do with range bound until resolved

Kind Regards

[Pumice]

I suspect a red bar is in the making?

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP311.gif

[Entrep]

"Still green"

[Arbitrage]

With China looking wobbly, the Middle East in trouble, and Europe shaky around the edges, the US is looking relatively good.

[ananda77]

Trader Update -10 March 2011 -

Trading Environment:

Note: potential start for down trend on Institutional selling today_ reduce downside market pressure

-SPX 500 range bound_the March 2 Low *1303/the Mar 3 Peak *1332
-SPX 500 in Up-condition_ C-RSI 30 +7.30 strength
-New Lows: 8 - below danger 26-zone - below panic zone 50 (+)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows 'downtick' in high expansion territory
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.64 bullish advantage
-VIX 20.22 (current market stress level: 20) _ D/Vol sideways _8 New Lows

Confirming Weakness:

-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30
-institutions undecided in/out of accumulation/distribution
-U.S. Dollar holding major support
-the Saudi 'Day of Rage' proposed at March 11 -a potential negative spike event ahead-

USD -test _ March 11 Saudi 'Day of Rage' to be resolved this week

Today's Session:

...the SPX 500 broke below the March 2 Low *1303 to intraday Low *1295 with an early bounce off support underway at present.

....uptick power so far has been unimpressive and further downside appears likely with the January 31 High *1287 the next target nearby_potential to extend losses to the January 31 Low *1277 before blopping out

...a successful defense of *1277/*1287 support will provide the foundation for another rally that targets upper channel resistance current *1385 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup; potential to reach out to hit a *1420 measured objective

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update - 11 March 2011 -

Trading Environment:

- Institutional selling action sideways trading range with an up tick (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-SPX 500 in Up-condition_ C-RSI 30 +1.61 strength
-New Lows: 26 - danger 26-zone - below panic zone 50 (+)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows 'downtick' into mid expansion territory
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.001 bullish advantage
-VIX 21.88 (current market stress level: 20) _ D/Vol sideways _ 26 New Lows

Confirming weakness:

-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _C-RSI 4 below C-RSI9
-institutions in low level distribution

Caution: extreme caution - index close to 'sell' condition


Today's Session:

...the SPX 500 off intraday Low *1292 with today's market internals constructive. However, uptick buying power remains on the subdued side, suggesting upside bounce potential will not let the index stray too far past the March 2 Low *1303 resistance

...a likely failure at *1303 or March 10 congestion *1305 will force the index into another downdraft with the January 31 High *1287 as target_potential to extend losses to the January 31 Low *1277 before blopping out

...a successful defense of *1277/*1287 support will provide the foundation for another rally that targets upper channel resistance current *1384 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup_ potential to reach out to hit a *1420 measured objective

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 14 March 2011 -

Trading Environment:

-Institutional selling action sideways trading range with a down tick_inflection point (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-SPX 500 in Up-condition_ C-RSI 30 +13.37 strength
-New Lows: 18 - danger 26-zone - below panic zone 50 (+)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows 'up tick' in mid expansion territory
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.082 bullish advantage
-VIX 20.08 (current market stress level: 20) _ D/Vol sideways _ 18 New Lows

Confirming weakness:

-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _C-RSI 4 below C-RSI9
-institutions in low level distribution

Caution: extreme caution - index close to 'sell' condition


Today's Session:

...as anticipated, the March 2 Low *1303 resistance_March 10 congestion *1305 capped Friday's bounce. Today's violation of January 31 High *1287 intraday leaves the door open for a test of the January 31 Low *1277 before blobbing-out

...a successful defense of *1277/*1287 support will provide the foundation for another rally that targets upper channel resistance current *1384 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup_ potential to reach out to hit a *1420 measured objective

Kind Regards

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP316.gif

[ananda77]

Trader Update - 15 March 2011 -

Trading Environment:

-Institutional selling action sideways trading range with a up tick_index at inflection point (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-SPX 500 in Up-condition_ C-RSI 30 +1.67 strength
-New Lows: 26 - at danger 26-zone - below panic zone 50 (+)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows 'down tick' in mid expansion territory
-Leadership stock ratio: -0.215 bearish advantage
-VIX 21.13 (current market stress level: 20) _ D/Vol sideways _ 26 New Lows

Confirming weakness:

-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _C-RSI 4 below C-RSI9
-institutions in low level distribution
-hedge funds selling

Caution: extreme caution - index close to 'sell' condition

Today's Session:

...the SPX crashed past the January 31 Low *1277 inflection point to intraday *1261 and appears to have found some support for now. Up-ticks off *1261 are unconvincing and risks for more downside is high

...below the January 14 Low, chances are, the market will want to test the December 27 Low *1255 before a possible bottom may be in place

...a successful defense of *1255 support will provide the foundation for another rally that targets upper channel resistance current *1376 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup_ potential to reach out to hit a *1408 measured objective

Kind Regards

[Footsie]

Phaedrus, this must be red now?

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 16 March 2011 -

Trading Environment:

-Institutional selling action - at a March High, 'selling limits' during strong bull phase (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 24.32 (current market stress level: 20) _ D/Vol sideways _ 71 New Lows

Cautiom: bear trap risk

Confirming weakness:

-NYSE (=hft-zone) at negative strength
-SPX 500 'sell' trigger_ C-RSI 30 -1.35 strength
-New Lows: 71 - above danger 26-zone - above panic zone 50 (+)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows 'sharp down tick' in mid expansion territory
-Leadership stock ratio: -0.83 bearish advantage

Today's Session:

unchanged from yesterday. However, a potential lower target to bottom added:

-SPX 500 current *1215

Kind Regards

[Phaedrus]

Not yet, Footsie. Currently the SP500 MSI is dark grey (negative and falling). As you can see from the actual MSI plot, it IS a gnat's eyelash away from triggering a Yellow warning, though.

To my mind this is all as it should be. The current correction is still quite small - you can see that there have been plenty of other retracements the same size or larger over the 2 years of this magnificent uptrend. Trendline still unbroken, etc.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP317.gif

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 17 March 2011 -

Trading Environment:

(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Confirming weakness:

-Institutional selling action _ 'selling limits' expanding
-VIX 29.40_long-term resistance 32.70 _ D/Vol break-out sideways range_ 38 New Lows
-NYSE _ (= hft-zone) _ negative strength
-SPX 500 'sell' trigger_ C-RSI 30 -5.66 strength
-New Lows: 38 _ above danger 26-zone _ above panic zone 50 (+)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows _ 'sharp down tick' _ in low expansion territory _close to contraction
-Leadership stock ratio: -1.99 bearish advantage

Caution: very high market risk level

Today's Session:

...today's bounce pulled the SPX 500 back away from the 'crash site'. The strength inherent in the impulsive move signals the March 16 Low *1249 is a potential floor in place

...the index needs to push the retrace up into a Close above the March 15 High *1288 or better into the *1291 level to confirm

...below the March 15 High *1288 _ current *1291 level, risk remains high for a re-test of the March 16 Low *1249. Any possible, intraday down spike within this double bottom scenario should bring out buyers en masse at the current *1218 level max.

...sustained trading above the March 15 High *1288 _ current *1291signals the expected rally to retrace to current *1380/*1420 is already underway

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 18 March 2011 -

Trading Environment:

-Institutional selling action _ 'selling limits' expanded _ downtick in uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 26.37_long-term resistance 32.70 _ D/Vol sideways range_ 25 New Lows
-New Lows: 25 _ below danger 26-zone _ below panic zone 50 (+)

Confirming weakness:

-NYSE _ (= hft-zone) _ negative strength
-SPX 500 'sell' trigger March 15_ C-RSI 30 -2.30 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows _ 'uptick' _ in low expansion territory _ close to contraction
-Leadership stock ratio: -0.89 bearish advantage
very high market risk level

Today's Session:

...the SPX 500 extended to intraday *1289 but so far, the market failed to push the retrace up past the March 15 High *1288_the *1291 level

......below the March 15 High *1288 _ current *1291 level, risk remains high for a re-test of short-term trendline support current !269_the March 16 Low *1249. Any possible, intraday down spike within this double bottom scenario should bring out buyers en masse at the current *1218 level max.

,,,however, sustained trading above the March 15 High *1288 _ current *1291 signals the expected rally to retrace to current *1380/*1420 is already underway

Kind Regards

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP323.gif

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data 22 March 2011 -

Trading Environment:

-Institutional selling action _'selling limits' expanded _downtick in uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows _ 'uptick' _now in mid expansion
-VIX 20.61_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol sideways range_9 New Lows
-New Lows: 9_below danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-Leadership stock ratio: +o.29 bullish advantage

Confirming weakness:

-SPX 500 'sell' trigger March 15
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_negative strength

Intraday: positive_mixed bias
Conservative: cash

Today's Session:

...the SPX 500 consolidated gains above the March 15 High *1288 to intraday *1293. Uptick power above the intraday Low so far subdued and further downside is possible to re-test the break-out zone *1281/*1288

...a successful defense of *1281/*1288 support keeps the index on track into the *1305/*1316 congestion with possible extensions reaching into the March Peak so far *1332_the February Peak *1344

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 23 March 2011 -

Trading Environment:

-Institutional selling action _'selling limits' expanded_uptrend/downtrend decision pending (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'downtick' _ in mid expansion
-VIX 20.21_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol sideways range_9 New Lows
-New Lows: 9_below danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.27 bullish advantage

Confirming weakness:

-SPX 500 'sell' trigger March 15
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_negative strength

Intraday: positive_mixed bias
Conservative: cash

Today's Session:

...the SPX 500 continued consolidating gains above the March 15 High *1288 to intraday *1284 and has managed a successful defense of the *1281/*1288 support so far

...above *1281/*1288 support, the index remains on track into the *1305/*1316 congestion with possible extensions reaching into the March Peak so far *1332_the February Peak *1344

Kind Regards

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP326.gif

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 25 March 2011-

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 'buy' trigger pending_ C-RSI 30 +3.37 strength
-Institutional selling action _'selling limits' expanded_downtrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'uptick' _ mid expansion
-VIX 18_below 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol sideways range_13 New Lows
-New Lows: 13_below danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_positive strength
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.55 bullish advantage
------------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

positive intraday bias
Conservative_cash
11am: SPX 500 'buy' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

...the SPX 500 pushing higher again today breaking above above the *1305/*1316 congestion intraday suggesting potential upside extension into the March Peak current *1332_the February Peak *1344 on track

... looking ahead, the current March Peak *1332_the February Peak *1344 resistance will be a formidable barrier from where an overbought sell-off will force the index to correct into the current *1254/*1265 zone minimum

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 28 March 2011-

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25 _ C-RSI 30 +4.01 strength
-Institutional selling action _'selling limits' expanded_downtrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'uptick' _upper expansion
-VIX 17.81_below 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol sideways range_6 New Lows
-New Lows: 6_below danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_positive strength
-Leadership stock ratio: +1.00 bullish advantage

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

positive intraday bias
Conservative_long
---------------------------------

Today's Session:

...the SPX 500 extended again in an attempt to push into the current March Peak *1332_the February Peak *1344 resistance amidst neutral internals and weak up-momentum. The Try got thumbed early at intraday *1320 so far

...as a result, expectations of a pending top between today's *1320_the current March 3 Peak *1332 remain in place. Further out, the February Peak *1344 is unlikely to fall in a first test

...an overbought sell-off will force the index to correct into the current *1256/*1281 zone

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 29 March 2011-

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25 _ C-RSI 30 +3.35 strength
-Institutional selling action _'selling limits' expanded_downtrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'downtick' _mid expansion
-VIX 18.93_below 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol inside range_12 New Lows
-New Lows: 12_below danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_positive strength
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.65 bullish advantage

Confirming weakness:

...abrupt liquidity pull-back yesterday

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

mixed intraday bias
Conservative_long
---------------------------------

Today's Session:

...the SPX 500 tries to recover from yesterday's liquidity drain, albeit with unconvincing up-tick power

...as a result, expectations of a pending top between today's *1320_the current March 3 Peak *1332 remain in place. Further out, the February Peak *1344 is unlikely to fall in a first test

...an overbought sell-off will force the index to correct into the current *1256/*1281 zone

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 1 April 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Institutional selling action _'selling limits' expanded_downtrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 +6.09 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'sideways tick'_high expansion
-VIX 17.74_below 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol inside range_13 New Lows
-New Lows: 13_below danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_positive strength
-Leadership stock ratio: +2.02 bullish advantage

Confirming weakness:

-New Highs downtrend suggesting market fatique (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

positive intraday bias
Conservative_long
---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* bullish: > *1319 on track to take out February Peak *1344_view to *1358
* Close < *1319_consolidating range *1305/*1332
* Close <*1305_bearish reversal to *1275 minimum

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 4 April 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Institutional selling action _'selling limits' expanded_downtrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 +7.05 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'uptick'_high expansion
-VIX 17.40_below 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol inside range_11 New Lows
-New Lows: 11_below danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-New Highs_potential for new uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_positive strength
-Leadership stock ratio: +2.56 bullish advantage

Confirming weakness:
-Short term liquidity trend_higher risk for a corrective move (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

positive to mixed intraday bias
Conservative_long
---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* bullish: > *1319 on track to take out February Peak *1344_view to *1363
* Close < *1319_consolidating range *1307/*1338
* Close <*1307_high risk for bearish reversal to *1273 minimum

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 5 April 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Institutional selling action _'selling limits' expanded_downtrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 +7.25 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'sideways tick'_high expansion
-VIX 17.50_below 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol inside range_15 New Lows
-New Lows: 15_below danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-New Highs_potential for new uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_positive strength
-Leadership stock ratio: +2.45 bullish advantage

Confirming weakness:

-Short term liquidity trend_higher risk for a corrective move (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

positive intraday bias
Conservative_long
---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* bullish: > *1319 on track to take out February Peak *1344_view to *1368
* Close < *1319_consolidating range *1308/*1338
* Close <*1307_high risk for bearish reversal to *1274 minimum

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 6 April 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Institutional selling action _'selling limits' expanded_downtrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 +7.19 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'sideways tick'_high expansion
-VIX 17.25_below 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol inside range_14 New Lows
-New Lows: 14_below danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-New Highs_potential for new uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_positive strength
-Leadership stock ratio: +2.37 bullish advantage

Confirming weakness:

-Short term liquidity trend_higher risk for a corrective move (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

mixed to positive intraday bias with short term liquidity tilting to negative
Conservative_long
---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* bullish: > *1322 on track to take out February Peak *1344_view to *1372
* Close < *1322_consolidating range *1309/*1338
* Close <*1309_high risk for bearish reversal to *1275 minimum

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 7 April 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Institutional selling action _'selling limits' expanded_downtrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 +7.96 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'uptick'_high expansion
-VIX 16.9_below 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol inside range_6 New Lows
-New Lows: 6_below danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-New Highs_potential for new uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_positive strength_< C-RSI +5.00
-Leadership stock ratio: +2.68 bullish advantage


Confirming weakness:

-Short term liquidity trend_higher risk for a corrective move (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

positive_mixed intraday bias with short term liquidity expanded_'sideways' tick
Conservative: hold long position
---------------------------------

Today's Session:

...no follow through selling after Japan quake news - SPX 500 on track to *1344 -
...VIX < 15.23 (target: 9.39) = continuous bullish advance otherwise high risk of bearish reversal at *1344 first attempt

* bullish: > *1322 on track to take out February Peak *1344_view to *1372
* Close < *1322_consolidating range *1309/*1338
* Close <*1309_high risk for bearish reversal to *1275 minimum

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 11 April 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Institutional selling action _'selling limits' expanded_downtrend weakened_high risk for increasing institutional selling (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 +5.95 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'downtick'_ in high expansion territory
-VIX 17.87_below 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol inside range_10 New Lows
-New Lows: 10_below danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-New Highs_potential for new uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_positive strength_< C-RSI +5.00
-Leadership stock ratio: +1.34 bullish advantage

Confirming weakness

-Short term liquidity trend_higher risk for a corrective move (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

negative to mixed intraday bias with short term liquidity expanded_downtick
Conservative: hold long position
---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* bullish: > *1324 on track to take out February Peak *1344_view to *1377
* Close < *1324_consolidating range *1312/*1338
* 1312 Close <*1312_high risk for bearish reversal to *1304/ *1280 minimum

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 13 April 2011-

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 weak +2.53 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'downtick'_ in high expansion territory
-VIX 17.09_below 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol inside range_21 New Lows
-New Lows: 21_below danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_weak positive strength_C-RSI below +5.00
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.13 bullish advantage

Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action _'selling limits' expanded_crossover to nascent uptrend_risk of high volatility (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend_potential rebound_high volatility (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-New Highs_negative 24 (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX > 15.23 support = negative for sustaining bull market
-US Stock Trading v. SPX 500 (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

-negative intraday bias with initial strong Open
-Conservative: higher risk holding long position
---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* bullish: > *1324 on track to take out February Peak *1344_view to *1379

* Close < *1324_consolidating range *1313/*1338

* Close <*1313_high risk for bearish reversal to *1303/*1300/ *1280 minimum

* Strategy: expecting a successful defense -buy *1282 -stop *1267 -target *1375

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 14 April 2011-

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 weak +2.51 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'uptick'(!!)_ in high expansion territory
-VIX 16.92_below 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol inside range_13 New Lows
-New Lows: 13_below danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_weak positive strength_C-RSI 30 < +5.00 strength


Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action_nascent uptrend_risk of high volatility ((chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend_high volatility risk ((chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Leadership stock ratio: -1.86 bearish advantage
-New Highs_negative 41 (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX > 15.23 support = negative for sustaining bull market

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

-negative to mixed intraday bias
-Conservative: higher risk holding long position_C-RSI 30 < +5 strength
---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* bullish: > *1324 on track to take out February Peak *1344_view to *1379/*1410

* Close < *1324_consolidating range *1313/*1338

* Close <*1313_high risk for bearish reversal to *1303/*1300/ *1280 minimum

* Strategy: expecting a successful defense -buy *1282 -stop *1267 -target *1378

...index needs to clear April 13 High *1321 for today's bounce to grip; otherwise expect more downside into 'target buy' level

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

SPX 500 weekly Close *1320 -risks and uncertainties over a weekend considered- a bullish call. If trading remains in this level for the start of the week, *1344 will go out the door -Hello SPX 500 *1400 here we come-

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 18 April 2011 -

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 weak +3.82 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'uptick'_ in high expansion territory
-VIX 15.32_below 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol inside range_13 New Lows
-New Lows: 13_below danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 < +5.00 strength_positive NYA-Momentum

Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action_stalling uptrend_risk of high volatility (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend_'uptick'_in contraction territory_high volatility (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Leadership stock ratio: +43 neutral/bullish advantage
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 81 < 180 minimum target
-VIX > 15.23 support = negative for sustaining bull market

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

-mixed intraday bias
-Conservative: higher risk holding long position_C-RSI 30 < +5 strength
---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* bullish: > *1323 on track to take out February Peak *1344_view to *1379/*1410

* Close < *1323_consolidating range *1315/*1338

* Close <*1315_high risk for bearish reversal to *1303/*1300/ *1284 minimum

* Strategy: -buy *1320 -stop *1300 -target *1378 (+)

...chances are, the index will test *1284; a successful defense in that level will set the index back on track to take out February Peak *1344_view to reach out to *1379/*1410

Kind Regards

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP419.gif

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 19 April 2011 -

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 weak +0.15 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'downtick'_ into mid expansion territory
!!!-Short term liquidity trend_positive divergence_potential for trend reversal!!! (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 16.95_below 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol inside range_26 New Lows
-New Lows: 26_danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +0.127 strength_positive NYA-Momentum


Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action_'uptrend' resumes (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.04 neutral/bullish advantage
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 50_below 180 minimum target
-VIX > 15.23 support = negative for sustaining bull market

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

-mixed to negative intraday bias_'market must hold' elevated risk level
-Conservative: high risk holding long position_C-RSI 30 < +5 strength
---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* Close <*1315_high risk for bearish reversal to *1303/*1300/ *1284 minimum

* Strategy: -buy *1285 -stop *1266 -target *1378 (+)

...chances are, the index will test *1284; a successful defense in that level will set the index back on track to take out February Peak *1344_view to reach out to *1379/*1410

Kind regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 20 April 2011-

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 weak +1.87 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'uptick'_ in mid expansion territory
-Short term liquidity trend_positive divergence_potential for trend reversal (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 15.83_below 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol inside range_24 New Lows
-New Lows: 24_danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +1.93 strength_positive NYA-Momentum

Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action_'downtick'_in uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.50 neutral/bullish advantage
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 52_below 180 minimum target
-VIX > 15.23 support = negative for sustaining bull market

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

-mixed intraday bias_C-RSI 30 < +5 strength_high risk bullish reversal
-Conservative: high risk holding long position_C-RSI 30 < +5 strength
---------------------------------
Today's Session:

* (Higher Risk) Trading > *1313/(Low Risk) Close > *1324_confirms April 18 Low *1294 as bottom_*1338/*1352 next upside targets
* Violation *1311_weakness_high risk to test *1302
* Violation *1302_high risk to test *1294 minimum_view to trade into 'target buy level' *1284

...Strategy: -buy a Close > *1324 -stop *1310 -target *1378 (+)

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 26 April 2011-

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 +6.61 strength
-Institutional selling action_trending lower (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'downtick'_ into high expansion territory
-Short term liquidity trend_positive (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 15.77_below 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol inside range_14 New Lows
-New Lows: 14_danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-Leadership stock ratio: +1.04 bullish advantage
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +6.30 strength_positive NYA-Momentum

Confirming weakness

-New Highs Trending Indicator: 175_below 180 minimum target

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

-positive intraday bias_bullish sentiment > C-RSI 30 +5.00 strength
-Conservative: holding long position
---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* on track to challenge April High *1339_March High *1344
* expecting trading > *1344 to *1356 into target *1379 (+)_*1409 upper resistance
* weakness < *1329

...Strategy: long > *1324 -stop *1316 -target *1378 (+)

Kind Regards

[winner69]

S&P currently - "overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndrome"

Mostly ends in tears

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110502.htm

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 4 May 2011-

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 +9.79 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'downtick'_ in high expansion territory
-New Lows: 22_danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.90 bullish advantage
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +7.81 strength_positive NYA-Momentum
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 225 > 180 minimum target

Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action_reversal into uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend_slightly negative (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 16.70_ > 15.23 support_below 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'uptick'_22 New Lows

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

-weakening bullish sentiment_uptrend under stress > C-RSI 30 +5.00 strength
-Conservative: holding long position
---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* expecting trading > *1344 to *1356 into target *1381 (+)_*1412 upper resistance
* reaching into target zone_ risk of corrective shake out into *1344/*1331 congestion
* weakness trading Close < *1331

...Strategy: long > *1324 -stop *1316 -target *1378 (+) -hedged *1378-

...a successful defense of the *1344/*1331 congestion level will set up the index up into the *1400 (+) upper resistance level

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 +7.23 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'downtick'_ in high expansion territory
-New Lows: 22_danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.20 bullish advantage
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +4.09 strength_neutral NYA-Momentum

Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action_reversal into uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend_negative_intraday corrective rebound potential (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-VIX 17.08_ > 15.23 support_< 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'uptick'_28 New Lows
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 154 < 180 minimum target

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* weakening bullish sentiment_uptrend under stress_C-RSI 30 > +5.00 strength

* Conservative: holding long position

---------------------------------
Today's Session:

* expecting trading > *1344 to *1356 into target *1381 (+)_*1412 upper resistance
* reaching into target zone_ risk of corrective shake out into *1344/*1331 congestion
* weakness trading Close < *1331

...Strategy: long > *1324 -stop *1316 -target *1378 (+) -hedged *1378-

* a successful defense of the *1344/*1331 congestion level will set up the index up into the *1400 (+) upper resistance level

...bounce off session Low *1336 - potential to test *1356/*1361 pivot

-failure in the pivot - high risk to re-test *1331 area
-sustained trading > pivot - index on track into the *1400 (+) upper resistance level

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 06 May 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'downtick'_ in mid expansion territory
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.02 bullish advantage

Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action_reversal into uptrend_increased selling (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend_negative_intraday corrective rebound potential (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-VIX 18.20_ > 15.23 support_< 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'uptick'_30 New Lows
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 121 < 180 minimum target
-New Lows: 30_in danger 26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)
-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 +4.04 strength
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +4.09 strength_slight negative NYA-Momentum

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* weakening bullish sentiment_uptrend under high stress_C-RSI 30 > +5.00 strength

* Conservative: holding long position

---------------------------------
Today's Session:

* expecting trading > *1344 to *1356 into target *1381 (+)_*1412 upper resistance
* reaching into target zone_ risk of corrective shake out into *1344/*1331 congestion
* weakness trading Close < *1331

...Strategy: long > *1324 -stop *1316 -target *1378 (+) -hedged *1378-

* a successful defense of the *1344/*1331 congestion level will set up the index up into the *1400 (+) upper resistance level

Note: despite late sell-off, market traded sideways for the day filling the open gap late in the session; good liquidity inflows positive for another rally into the *1400 (+) upper resistance level; market needs to keep current levels into a Monday Close for sustained break above *1360

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Today's Session:

* expecting trading > *1344 to *1356 into target *1381 (+)_*1412 upper resistance
* reaching into target zone_ risk of corrective shake out into *1344/*1331 congestion
* weakness trading Close < *1329

...Strategy: long > *1324 -stop *1316 -target *1378 (+) -hedged *1378-

* liquidity inflows improved further and the index appears to settle into a consolidation pattern with parameter limits *1329/*1360 - a break above *1360 is expected to propel trading into upper channel resistance current *1418 - higher risk of a top forming above *1388 (+)

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trading Environment:

-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'uptick'_ in mid expansion territory
-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 +6.37 strength
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.58 bullish advantage
-New Lows: 14_ <26-zone_below panic zone 50 (+)

Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action_uptrend with decreasing selling last two days (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend_'uptick' in negative territory (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-VIX 17.18_ > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'downtick'_14 New Lows
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 116 < 180 minimum target
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +3.63 strength_slight negative NYA-Momentum

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* mixed to positive intraday bias

* Conservative: holding long position

---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* expecting trading > *1344 to *1356 into target *1381 (+)_*1412 upper resistance
* reaching into target zone_ risk of corrective shake out into *1344/*1331 congestion
* weakness trading Close < *1329

...Strategy: long > *1324 -stop *1316 -target *1378 (+)

* liquidity inflows improved further and the index appears to settle into a consolidation pattern with parameter limits *1329/*1360 - a break above *1360 is expected to propel trading into upper channel resistance current *1418 - higher risk of a top forming above *1388 (+)

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trading Environment:

-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'uptick'_ in mid expansion territory
-Short term liquidity trend_'uptick' into positive territory (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 +8.65 strength_C-RSI 9 > C-RSI 30
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +5.73 strength_slight positive NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: +1.41 bullish advantage
-New Lows: 14_ < 26 - danger zone_below panic zone 50 (+)


Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action_uptrend with decreasing selling last three days (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 15.91 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'downtick'_16 New Lows
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 174 < 180 minimum target

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* positive to mixed intraday bias

* Conservative: holding long position

---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* expecting trading > *1344 to *1360 into target *1388 (+)/*1420 upper resistance
* weakness trading Close < *1330

...Strategy: long > *1324 -stop *1316 -target *1378 (+)

* index appears to settle into expected consolidation pattern *1329/*1360; if so, *1329 should not be violated on a Close basis for an eventual break above *1360 into upper channel resistance *1420; risk of sudden top forming above *1388

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 12 May 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'downtick'_ in mid expansion territory
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.29 bullish advantage
-New Lows: 18_ < 26 - danger zone_below panic zone 50 (+)

Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action_uptrend_'uptick" after three days of decreasing selling (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 +4.95 strength
-Short term liquidity trend_'downtick' into negative territory (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +1.64 strength_slight negative NYA-Momentum
-VIX 16.95 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'uptick'_19 New Lows
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 144 < 180 minimum target
-C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* negative to mixed intraday bias

* Conservative: holding long position

---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* expecting trading > *1344 to *1360 into target *1388 (+)/*1420 upper resistance
* weakness trading Close < *1330

...Strategy: long > *1324 -stop *1323 -target *1378 (+)

* index appears to settle into expected consolidation pattern *1329/*1360; if so, *1329 should not be violated on a Close basis for an eventual break above *1360 into upper channel resistance *1420; risk of sudden top forming above *1388
* index recovered from initial weakness towards near unchanged levels providing more certainty for a consolidation pattern *1329/*1350 in play.

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 12 May 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'downtick'_ in mid expansion territory
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.29 bullish advantage
-New Lows: 18_ < 26 - danger zone_below panic zone 50 (+)

Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action_uptrend_'uptick" after three days of decreasing selling (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-SPX 500 'buy' trigger March 25_C-RSI 30 +4.95 strength
-Short term liquidity trend_'downtick' into negative territory (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +1.64 strength_slight negative NYA-Momentum
-VIX 16.95 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'uptick'_19 New Lows
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 144 < 180 minimum target
-C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* negative to mixed intraday bias

* Conservative: holding long position

---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* expecting trading > *1344 to *1360 into target *1388 (+)/*1420 upper resistance
* weakness trading Close < *1330

...Strategy: long > *1324 -stop *1323 -target *1378 (+)

* index appears to settle into expected consolidation pattern *1329/*1360; if so, *1329 should not be violated on a Close basis for an eventual break above 1360 into upper channel resistance *1420; risk of sudden top forming above *1388

* index recovered from initial weakness towards near unchanged levels providing more certainty for a consolidation pattern *1329/*1350 in play.

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 13 May 2011-

Blogger .com down -apologies-

Today;s session:

...range trade continues with parameter levels *1329/*1360 into weekend - above *1329, a break above *1360 is expected to propel trading into upper channel resistance current *1418 - higher risk of a top forming above *1388 (+)

...index above *1329 intraday Low - closes comfortable *1338 into the weekend - possibility for further consolidation within the range for another couple of sessions

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 16 May 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ lower Low 'downtick'_ in mid expansion territory
-SPX 500 'BUY' Alert 25 March 2011_C-RSI +3.67
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.12 bullish advantage
-New Lows: 22 < 26 - danger zone < panic zone 50 (+)

Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action_'uptick' in uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend_'downtick' in negative territory (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -0.186 strength_neutral NYA-Momentum
-VIX 17.07 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'uptick'_22 New Lows
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 164 < 180 minimum target
SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* negative intraday bias

* Conservative: upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash' although market may continue higher before a major top

---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* expecting trading > *1344 to *1360 into target *1388 (+)/*1420 upper resistance
* weakness trading Close < *1330

...Strategy: long > *1324 -stop *1316 -target *1378 (+)

...index defends *1329 support with an intraday Low *1331 second time - although upticks remain sluggish and point to an extension of consolidation pattern, an eventual break above *1360 is expected for the index to trafe higher into upper channel resistance *1412 (+) with risk of sudden top forming elevated above *1388

Kind Regards

[grasschoppa]

For the DJIA traders, Ive got the chart set on 30 min and I see absolute support at 12445 ish with a inverted hammer three candles past and now a bullish engulfing candle.

Very strong indication of an uptrend move but have to hold positions over, all results are coming in good WMT etc

How does anyone else veiw the next trade here?

[Zorrro]

Our Dedicated Chatroom is now Open

Go to: www.koolpips.com

When get there Click on : Chat Room


No Registration needed or passwords etc


Please use OPERA , Google CHROME , Mozilla Firefox as Internet explorer seems to be playing up ( old scripts)

rgds Zarif

[ananda77]

Trading Environment:

-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ sidewaystick'_ in mid expansion territory
-SPX 500 'BUY' Alert 25 March 2011_C-RSI +1.68


Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action_'uptick' in uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend_'downtick' in negative territory_at extreme oversold (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -1.24 strength_neutral NYA-Momentum
-VIX 18.24 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'uptick'
-New Lows: 33 > 26 - danger zone < panic zone 50 (+)
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 132 < 180 minimum target
-Leadership stock ratio: -0.01 neutral
SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* negative intraday bias_potential attempt to stabilize markets

* Conservative: upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash' although market may continue higher before a major top

---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* expecting trading > *1344 to *1360 into target *1396 (+)/*1429 upper resistance
* weakness trading Close < *1330

...Strategy: long > *1324 -stop *1316 -target *1378 (+)

...potential attempt to stabilize markets over next two sessions

...market needs to shake off the weak trade below *1329 - a Close below *1329 introduces high risk for further downside to test the SPX 500 *1300 range - while a Close at unchanged levels (+) sets the index up for an eventual break above the *1360 level

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 18 May 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ sidewaystick'_ in mid expansion territory
-SPX 500 'BUY' Alert 25 March 2011_C-RSI-30 +1.63

Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action_'uptick' in uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend_negative_'sidewaystick'_daily inflows 'uptick' (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -1.35 strength_neutral NYA-Momentum
-VIX 17.55 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'downtick'
-New Lows: 42 > 26 - danger zone < panic zone 50 (+)
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 105 < 180 minimum target
-Leadership stock ratio: -0.02 neutral
SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* negative intraday bias_potential attempt to stabilize markets again today

* Conservative: upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash' although market may continue higher before a major top

---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* expecting trading > *1344 to *1360 into target *1396 (+)/*1429 upper resistance
* weakness trading Close < *1330

...Strategy: long > *1324 -stop *1316 -target *1378 (+)

...liquidity inflows matched outflows yesterday - higher liquidity inflows necessary today

...market posting a steady, cautious recovery from the May 17 Close *1329 on good breadth and volume - although upticks from the May 17 Low *1319 remain unimpressive so far, expectations are, *1319 will remain in place as the base for a solid rally - to break above trendline resistance current *1363 - challenge current *1396 before heading into upper channel resistance current *1430 - risks increasing for index forming a sudden top above *1396

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 19 May 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'uptick'_ in mid expansion territory
-SPX 500 'BUY' Alert 25 March 2011_C-RSI-30 +4.18
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.20 slight bullish advantage
-New Lows: 21 < 26 - danger zone < panic zone 50 (+)
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +1.001 strength_slight positive NYA-Momentum

Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action_'downtick' in uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend_negative_'uptick'_daily inflows 'uptick'_close to positive (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 16.23 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'downtick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 108 < 180 minimum target
SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* positive to mixed intraday bias

* Conservative: upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash' although market may continue higher before a major top

---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* expecting trading > *1344 to *1360 into target *1398 (+)/*1430 upper channel resistance
* weakness trading Close < *1330

...Strategy: long > *1324 -stop *1316 -target *1378 (+)

...above *1334, the rally up from May 17 Low *1319 remains on track to break above trendline resistance current *1368 - challenge current *1401 before heading into upper channel resistance current *1434 - risks increasing for index forming a sudden top above *1396

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 23 May 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'downtick' in mid expansion territory
-SPX 500 'BUY' Alert 25 March 2011_C-RSI-30 +2.23
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.20 slight bullish advantage
-New Lows: 21 < 26 - danger zone < panic zone 50 (+)

Confirming weakness

-Institutional selling action_'uptick' in uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend_negative_'sidewaystick'_daily inflows 'downtick' into negative (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 17.43 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'uptick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 118 < 180 minimum target
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -0.63 strength_slight negative NYA-Momentum

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* negative to mixed intraday bias_very high risk levels

* Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash' although market may continue higher before a major top

---------------------------------

Today's Session:

* expecting trading > *1344 to *1360 into target *1396 (+)/*1429 upper resistance
* weakness trading Close < *1331

...Strategy: long > *1324 -stop *1316 -target *1378 (+) hedged *1378

...index still trading above the *1303/*1313 support pivot with today's New Lows 40 so far avoiding the 50 (+) panic selling level
...appears a strong double bottom is in the making on the longer term weekly time frame with the *1300 pivot support as inflection point
...respecting pivot support around the SPX 500 *1300 level should set a strong foundation to propel trading above trendline resistance current *1366 - challenge current *1399 before heading into upper channel resistance current *1432 - risks increasing for index forming a sudden top above *1393

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 25 May 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows _ 'downtick' in low expansion territory
-New Lows: 33 > 26 - danger zone < panic zone 50 (+)

Confirming weakness

-SPX 500 'Sell' Alert 23 May 2011_C-RSI-30 -1.48
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Institutional selling action_'uptick' in uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend_negative_'downtick'_daily inflows negative 'downtick' (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 17.82 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'downtick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 72 < 180 minimum target
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -3.67_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -0.21 slight bearish advantage

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* negative to mixed intraday bias_very high risk levels

* Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert

---------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378

...another recovery attempt off the current intraday Low *1312 - uptick power however remains sluggish and risks remain high for further slippage to pivot support around the *1300 level - possibly falling as far as *1293/*1282 before stabilizing
...a successful defense in the *1293/*1282 level could initiate a rebound to test the May *1371 High leading into a possible *1282/*1371 sideways market

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

(Part I)

Typical macho man married typical good-looking lady, and after the wedding, he laid down the following rules:

'I'll be home when I want, if I want and at what time

I want -- and I don't expect any hassle from you.

I expect a great dinner to be on the table unless

I tell you that I won't be home for dinner.

I'll go hunting, fishing, boozing, and card-playing

when I want with my old buddies, and don't you

give me a hard time about it.

Those are my rules. Any comments?'

His new bride said:

'No, that's fine with me. Just understand that there will be sex

here at seven o'clock every night...whether you're here or not.'

(DARN SHE'S GOOD!)

************************************************

Marriage (Part II)

Husband and wife had a bitter quarrel on the day of their 40th wedding anniversary!

The husband yells, 'When you die, I'm getting you a headstone

that reads, 'Here Lies My Wife -- Cold As Ever'!'

'Yeah?' she replies. 'When you die, I'm getting you a headstone

that reads, 'Here Lies My Husband -- Stiff At Last'!'

(HE ASKED FOR IT!)

*****************************************

Marriage (Part III)

Husband (a doctor) and his wife are having a fight at the breakfast table.

Husband gets up in a rage and says, 'And you are no

good in bed either,' and storms out of the house.

After some time he realizes he was nasty and

decides to make amends and rings her up.

She comes to the phone after many rings, and the irritated husband

says, 'What took you so long to answer to the phone?'

She says, 'I was in bed.'

'In bed this early, doing what?'

'Getting a second opinion!'

(YEP, HE HAD THAT COMING, TOO!)

*****************************************

Marriage (Part IV)

A man has six children and is very proud of his achievement.

He is so proud of himself, that he starts calling his

wife,' Mother of Six' in spite of her objections.

One night, they go to a party. The man decides that it is time to go home

and wants to find out if his wife is ready to leave as well. He shouts

at the top of his voice, 'Shall we go home Mother of Six?'

His wife, irritated by her husband's lack of discretion,

shouts right back, 'Any time you're ready, Father of Four.'


(RIGHT ON, LADY!)

*****************************************

THE SILENT TREATMENT

A man and his wife were having some problems at home

and were giving each other the silent treatment.

Suddenly the man realized that the next day he would need his wife

to wake him at 5:00 AM for an early morning business flight.

Not wanting to be the first to break the silence (and LOSE), he wrote on a piece

of paper,'Please wake me at 5:00 AM .' He left it where he knew she would find it.

The next morning the man woke up, only to discover it

was 9:00 AM and he had missed his flight.

Furious, he was about to go to see why his wife hadn't wakened him when he

noticed a piece of paper by the bed. The paper said, 'It is 5:00 AM . Wake up.'

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 26 May 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'sidewaystick' in low expansion territory
-New Lows: 36 > 28 - danger zone < panic zone 50

Confirming weakness

-SPX 500 'Sell' Alert 23 May 2011_C-RSI-30 -0.46
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Institutional selling action_'sidewaystick' in uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend_negative_'sidewaystick'_daily inflows negative 'uptick'_positive divergence (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 17.07 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'downtick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 64 < 180 minimum target
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -2.25_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -0.06 very low bearish advantage

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* negative to mixed intraday bias_very high risk levels

* Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
---------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378

...another weak start due to unimpressive data but evidence of a stabilizing market mounting - now the market needs to clear *1324 into a Close to reach out towards the current *1339 resistance just below the February High *1344 - below *1324 risk remains high for further near term weakness to affirm *1295/*1282 to establish a stronger base
...a Close above *1344 would invite a bullish attempt to go for the April uptrend High *1371

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 31 May 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'uptick' in low expansion territory
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in negative territory_daily inflows 'uptick' in positive territory (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.29 bullish advantage
-New Lows: 8 < 28 danger zone < panic zone 50

Confirming weakness:

-SPX 500 'Sell' Alert 23 May 2011
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Institutional selling action_inflection point in uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 15.98 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'sidewaystick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 88 < 180 minimum target
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +0.66_negative NYA-Momentum

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* positive intraday bias_ risk levels remain high

* Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert

Today's Session:

hedged *1378

...the SPX 500 buckled under pressure at intraday *1345 due to incoming weak data but downticks have not done any damage (yet) to the bounce off last week's Low *1312

...if the market fails to close above the May 19 High *1347 soon, risks remain high for further near term downside to affirm the April 18 Low *1295 (possibly the March 21 Low *1282) before finding a stronger floor - trading below current *1325 confirms weakness

...a Close above *1344 would invite a bullish attempt to go for the April uptrend High *1371

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 01 June 2011-

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 'Buy' Alert 01 June 2011C-RSI 30 +5.0
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'uptick' in mid expansion territory
-Institutional selling action_downtrend confirmation (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' into positive territory_daily inflows 'uptick' in positive territory (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.74 bullish advantage
-New Lows: 10 < 28 danger zone < panic zone 50

Confirming weakness:

-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-VIX 15.46 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'sidewaystick'

-New Highs Trending Indicator: 152 < 180 minimum target
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +3.39_negative NYA-Momentum

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* positive intraday bias

* Conservative: Conditional June 01 'Buy' Alert (Russell and Nasdaq still on 'Sell' Alert)

-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378

...a Close above *1347 would invite a bullish attempt to go for the April uptrend High *1371

...the SPX 500 clobbered today and trades below the 50% mark of the May 25 Low *1312 - high risk for further weakness to re-test the Low *1312 - high risk for follow through lower to affirm the April 18 Low *1295 (possibly the March 21 Low *1282) before finding a stronger floor

...a successful defense in the support would be the start of a consolidation period that would eventually lead the index higher into the *1400 (+) current upper resistance level

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 02.June 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'downtick' into low expansion territory
-Institutional selling action_'uptick' in downtrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.13 bullish advantage


Confirming weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Short term liquidity trend: 'downtick' slight negative_daily inflows 'downtick' into negative (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 18.05 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'sidewaystick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 118 < 180 minimum target
-New Lows: 38 > 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -2.46_negative NYA-Momentum

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* mixed intraday bias

* Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert

-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378

...penetrating the May *1312 suggests - high risk for further weakness for follow through lower to affirm the April 18 Low *1295 (possibly the March 21 Low *1282) before finding a stronger floor

...a successful defense in the support would be the start of a consolidation period in the *1282/*1295_*1371 range that would eventually lead the index higher into the *1400 (+) current upper resistance level

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 03 June 2011-

Trading Environment:

-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'downtick' in low expansion territory
-Institutional selling action_'uptick' in downtrend_high risk for reversal (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Confirming weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Short term liquidity trend: 'downtick' in negative_daily inflows 'downtick' in negative (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 18.08 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'sidewaystick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 82 < 180 minimum target
-New Lows: 45 > 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -2.57_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.04 neutral

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* mixed intraday bias

* Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert

-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378

...the SPX 500 extended losses today but ticked up off the April 18 Low *1295 - uptick power remains unconvincing so far into the session - high risk of further slippage to affirm the March 21 Low *1282 -

...a successful defense in the support would be the start of a consolidation period in the *1282/*1295_*1371 range that would eventually lead the index higher into the *1400 (+) current upper resistance level

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 07 June 2011-

Trading Environment:

Confirming weakness:


-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'downtick' into contraction territory
-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Institutional selling action_'uptick' in uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'downtick' in negative_daily inflows 'downtick' in negative (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Note: daily inflows in oversold

-VIX 18.49 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'upticking'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 40 < 180 minimum target
-New Lows: 63 > 28 danger zone > panic zone 50
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -6.85_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -0.75 bearish advantage

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* negative intraday bias - NYA on suppport - daily liquidity inflows oversold = potential for intraday corrective up-move

* Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert

-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378

...violation of the April 18 Low *1295 signals high risk of further slippage to affirm the March 21 Low *1282/short term support current *1278 before a stronger floor may be established

...the SPX in for a corrective bounce from oversold - uptick power uncompelling below current *1316 -

...unless *1316 taken out convincingly on a Close basis, risks high for another draft down into the *1282/*1278/*1268/*1256 support cluster

...a successfuk defense would be the basis for an immediate recovery with a market likely to remain sideways between the March High *1371 and support

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 08 June 2011-

Trading Environment:

Confirming weakness:

-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'uptick' into contraction territory
-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Institutional selling action_'downtick' in uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'downtick' negative_daily inflows 'uptick' negative (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Note: daily inflows oversold

-VIX 18.07 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 38 < 180 minimum target
-New Lows: 57 > 28 danger zone > panic zone 50
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -6.33_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -0.81 bearish advantage

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

* negative intraday bias - NYA on suppport - daily liquidity inflows oversold = potential for intraday corrective up-move

* Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert

-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 - adding long positions slowly

...the SPX 500 continues its decline and hit the *1282/*1278/*1268/*1256 support cluster with an intraday Low *1278 so far - few impediments to stop the index trading lower unless current *1314 taken out convincingly on a Close basis

...a successful defense in the *1282/*1278/*1268/*1256 support cluster would be the basis for an immediate recovery with a market likely to remain sideways between the March High *1371 and support

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 13 June 2011-

Confirming Strength:

Confirm Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'uptick' in contraction
-Institutional selling action_'uptick' in uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'downtick' in negative_daily inflows 'downtick' in negative_oversold (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 18.86 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'uptick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 22 < 180 minimum target
-New Lows: 92 > 28 danger zone > panic zone 50
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -8.6_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -2.07 bearish advantage

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

negative to mixed intraday bias
Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 - adding long positions slowly

...so far, the SPX 500 holding the March 18 Low *1272 in heavily oversold terrain but risks remain high for additional downside below *1313 to challenge the lower part *1268/*1256 of the support cluster with the 200-day MA *1251 within range

...a successful defense in the *1282/*1278/*1268/*1256 support cluster would be the basis for an immediate recovery with a market likely to remain sideways between the March High *1371 and support

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 14 June 2011-

Confirming Strength:

Confirm Weakness:

-SPX 500 chart (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'downtick' in contraction
-Institutional selling action_'sidewaystick' in uptrend (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'downtick' in negative_daily inflows 'uptick' in negative_oversold (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 19.61 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_!D/Vol 'downtick'!
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 19 < 180 minimum target
-New Lows: 81 > 28 danger zone > panic zone 50
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -8.6_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -2.78 bearish advantage

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

negative to mixed intraday bias
Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert

-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 - adding long positions slowly

...the SPX 500 in for corrective treatment off the June 13 Low *1266 with a challenge of the June 3 Low *1298 overhead resistance the next likely target - impulsiveness still missing - any weak trading behavior below current *1298/*1301resistance will re-instate high risks for more downside to challenge current *1262 support with the 200-day MA *1251 within range - possibly extending down to current *1243

...a successful defense in the support range *1262/*1251/*1243 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 16 June 2011-

Confirming Strength:

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'downtick' in contraction
-Institutional selling action_decreased selling_downtrend remains unconfirmed (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'downtick' in negative_daily inflows 'downtick' in negative (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 21.32 > 15.23 support > 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'uptick'
-New Lows: 70 > 28 danger zone > panic zone 50
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 20 < 180 minimum target
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -8.75_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -2.69 bearish advantage

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

negative to mixed_oversold intraday bias _risk of high volatility
Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 - adding long positions slowy

...the index today still holding above *1253 support just above the March Low *1249 but the bounce of intraday Low *1259 appears unconvincing - suggesting high risks for more downside to challenge current *1253 support/the March Low *1249 as a minimum - possibly extending down to current *1233 support - including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...a successful defense in the support range *1233/*1227 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target


Kind Regards

[ananda77]

-SPX 500/VIX (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Trader Update -data point 17 June 2011-

Confirming Strength:

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'downtick' in contraction
-Institutional selling action_decreased selling_downtrend remains unconfirmed (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'sidewaystick' in negative_daily inflows 'uptick' in negative (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 22.73 > 15.23 support > 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'uptick'
-New Lows: 77 > 28 danger zone > panic zone 50
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 17 < 180 minimum target-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -8.80_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -2.69 bearish advantage

----------------------------------

Stocktiming.com recommend:negative to mixed_oversold intraday bias _risk of high volatility

Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert

-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 - adding long positions slowy

...the SPX 500 extending the short cover off the 200-day MA *1258, but the advance has stalled just above the 15 June congestion *1281 so far - further strength expected above *1281 to challenge the June 14 High *1292/current *1299 resistance

...below *1281 or failing *1292/*1299 suggests high risks for more downside to challenge current *1233 support - including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...a successful defense in the support range *1233/*1227 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 20 June 2011-

Confirming Strength:

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'uptick' in contraction
-Institutional selling action_sideways' consolidation_awaiting critical data for market direction
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in negative_daily inflows 'uptick' in negative
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 21.85 > 15.23 support > 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'downtick'-New Lows: 48 > 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 19 < 180 minimum target-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -7.67_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -2.42 bearish advantage

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

negative to mixed_oversold intraday bias

Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 - adding long positions slowy

...the SPX 500 reversing losses at the Open - extending the short cover off the 200-day MA *1258 - heading towards the 15 June congestion *1281 second time - further strength expected above *1281 to challenge the June 14 High *1292/current *1299 resistance

...below *1281 or failing *1292/*1299 suggests high risks for more downside to challenge current *1233 support - including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...a successful defense in the support range *1233/*1227 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 21 June 2011-

Confirming Strength:

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'uptick' in contraction
-Institutional selling action_'downtick'_inflection point_awaiting critical data for market direction
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in negative_daily inflows 'uptick' in negative
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 19.99 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'downtick'
-New Lows: 49 > 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 29 < 180 minimum target
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -6.64_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -1.58 bearish advantage

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

mixed to negative_oversold intraday bias

Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 - adding long positions slowy

...the SPX 500 managed to trade higher past the June 14 High *1292 to intraday *1296 - introducing potential for further gains into overhead resistance current *1302

...failing near *1302 suggests high risks for more downside to challenge current *1233 support - including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...a successful defense in the support range *1233/*1227 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Creation

http://i51.tinypic.com/2i9p201.jpg

A little girl asked her mother: "How did the human race appear?"
The mother Answered: "God made Adam and Eve and they had children, and so was all mankind made".
Two days later the girl asked her father the same question.
The father answered: "Many years ago there were monkeys from which the human race evolved."

http://i56.tinypic.com/24q2vif.jpg

The confused girl returned to her mother and said: " Mom , how is it possible that you told me the human race was created by God, and Dad said they developed from monkeys"?
The mother answered: "Well, dear, it is very simple. I told you about my side of the family and your father told you about his."

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 22 June 2-11-

Confirming Strength:

-Institutional selling action_short term downtrend
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-New Lows: 23 < 28 danger zone < panic zone 50

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'uptick' in contraction
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in negative_daily inflows 'uptick' in positive
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 18.63 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'downtick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 44 < 180 minimum target
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -2.86_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -0.17 bearish advantage/neutral

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

mixed to positive intraday bias

Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378

...ranging below overhead resistance current *1302 with short term momentum hurdling away from *1299 intraday price action

..high risks for bearish reversal to challenge current *1233 support - including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...a successful defense in the support range *1233/*1227 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Just so long as the 200 MA is defended then I still consider this correction to a based on short-term macro events (read: ongoing noise and rubbish from greece et al (and there's a huge amount of rubbish! another Lehman's? don't make me laugh!), Japan earthquakes, Middle east debacles affecting perceptions of oil supply, spikes in commodity prices driven by fear of currencies and perceptions of short term shortages, Australia floods, etc. etc. ... meanwhile the rest of the world is just getting "battle-hardened" and getting on with business.)

Totally agree Belg
The media have been incredibly negative these last 2 years

Based on what you have read in the media do you think the S&P 500 earnings/index is anywhere near what it was in the euphoria years before the 2008/09 GFC...
.
.
Answer....S&P500 earnings forecasted to be at an all time high in 2011
.


S&P 500
Earnings in prior years: ............. Earnings ............. Historical P/E .... Historical Earnings Yield

2010 Actual GAAP Earnings............ $76.97........................ 16.3.......................... 6.1%
2009 Actual GAAP Earnings........... $50.97........................ 21.9.....................4.6%
2008 Actual GAAP Earnings........... $14.88.................. 60.7.....................1.6%
2007 Actual GAAP Earnings........... $66.18.................. 22.2.......................... 4.5%
2006 Actual GAAP Earnings........... $81.51....................... 17.4.................... 5.7%
2005 Actual GAAP Earnings........... $69.93....................... 17.8.................... 5.6%
2004 Actual GAAP Earnings........... $58.55....................... 20.7.......................... 4.8%
2003 Actual GAAP Earnings........... $48.74.................. 22.8......................... 4.4%

EST 2011 GAAP Earnings................ $92.80.................. 14.2......................... 7.0%

The feeling is from the boffins is that the est $92,80 profit / index is set too high ..not because the economy is ailing but totally the reverse. When the USA population "get over it" and perceive the economy is coming right monetary constraints will emerge to control the anticipated inflation and excessive growth ..therefore interest rates will rise, currency will rise, commodity prices will not necessarily come down, competitive pricing strategies will increase thereby squeezing profit margins and earnings.
In other words when the economy finally comes right as everyone is wishing and hoping for....the Equity Market (share market S&P500) could soften and drop into another cyclic bear cycle. This drop could be large, annualised P/E Ratio trends down in a Secular Bear Market (2000-20??). Inflation (not the economy) is the major driver of the Equity market therefore if inflation increases, the market drop is magnified ..all happening at the time when the economy has "come right" :

Contrary to the media...the best times for businesses in the S&P500 index is probably happening NOW.

Data References
http://www.investorsfriend.com/S%20and%20P%20500%20index%20valuation.htm
http://www-eq.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_500/2,3,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,1,6,0,0,0,1,0.html

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 23 June 2011-

Confirming Strength:

-Institutional selling action_short term downtrend
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-New Lows: 24 < 28 danger zone < panic zone 50

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'downtick' in contraction
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in negative_daily inflows 'downtick' in positive
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 18.52 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'uptick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 55 < 180 minimum target
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -4.25_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -0.14 bearish advantage/neutral

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

mixed_oversold intraday bias

Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378

...SPX 500 failed at intraday *1299 yesterday - consequent rapid slide today interrupted at the 200-day MA current *1261 - bounce off 200-day support *1261 unconvincing_appears temporary

...high risk to follow through lower to challenge March Low *1249_ current *1228 support_including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...a successful defense in the support range *1233/*1227 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 24 June 2011-

SPX 500_VIX
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Confirming Strength:

-Institutional selling action_'uptick' in short term downtrend
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'downtick' in contraction
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in negative_daily inflows 'downtick' in positive
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 19.29 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'uptick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 38 < 180 minimum target
-New Lows: 49 > 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -5.4_negative NYA-Momentum -Leadership stock ratio: -0.10 neutral

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

mixed to negative intraday bias

Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378

...potential for very volatile day_including a short squeeze attempt to push the market higher

...the SPX 500 jibed through the 15 June congestion *1281 third time but remains supported above the 200-day MA *1262 with an intraday Low *1270 so far

.....below *1281 suggests high risks for more downside to challenge the March Low *1249 initially - scope yo stretch lower to current *1230 support_December 16 Low *1233 - including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...a successful defense in the support range *1249/ *1233/*1227 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target

Kind Regards

[peat]

daily was down pretty hard but at these levels those long wicks from some of the previous days may offer suppor

shorter term looks like a 5th wave ending diagonal also suggesting possibility of a sudden snap back - but the fact that its clearly 5 waves down means we could be on a longer term downward path.

3422

[winner69]

US markets still a secular bear market with several more years to run.

Secular bear markets last as long as the market PEs fall from a peak to a low (usually less than 10 at the market)

However the real value of the US markets seen in the Dow/Gold ratio (how many ounces of gold to buy the DOW) .... simple and clear cut how stuffed the US markets have been over the last 10 years or so ... and still overpriced as well. Just as well this chart has a log scale

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20110624.htm?T

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 27 June 2011-

SPX 500/VIX
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Confirming Strength:

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'downtick' in contraction
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Institutional selling action_higher Low_uptrend
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'downtick' in negative_daily inflows 'downtick' in negative
-VIX 21.10 > 15.23 support > 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'uptick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 45 < 180 minimum target
-New Lows: 36 > 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -7.34_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -0.34 neutral
----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

negative to mixed intraday bias

Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378

...the SPX 500 trade remains firm above the rising 200-day MA current *1265 but needs to clear the June 23 congestion *1284 on a Close basis to get serious in taking out *1290/*1300 overhead resistance in a show of strength

.....below *1284 suggests high risks for more downside to challenge the March Low *1249 initially - scope yo stretch lower to current *1230 support_December 16 Low *1233 - including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...a successful defense in the support range *1249/ *1233/*1227 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 28 June 2011-

Confirming Strength:

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'uptick' in contraction
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Institutional selling action_higher Low_uptrend
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in negative_daily inflows 'uptick' in negative
-VIX 20.56 > 15.23 support > 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'downtick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 46 < 180 minimum target
-New Lows: 37 > 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -5.59_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.01 neutral

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

negative to mixed intraday bias

Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378

...the SPX 500 extended higher to clear the June 23 congestion *1284 so far and heading towards the current *1299 (June 22 Peak)/*1303 overhead resistance - appears to roll over as short term momentum spirals away from price

...failure below this ceiling suggests high risks for more downside to challenge the March Low *1249 initially - scope to stretch lower to current *1228 support_December 16 Low *1233 - including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...a successful defense in the support range *1249/ *1233/*1227 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 29 June 2011-

Confirming Strength:

-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in positive_daily inflows 'uptick' in positive
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-New Lows: 19 < 28 danger zone < panic zone 50

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'uptick' in contraction
-Institutional selling action_merged trendline_potential for decreasing selling 
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 19.17 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'downtick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 72 < 180 minimum target
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -2.52_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.27 neutral

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

mixed to positive intraday bias_strength remains negative

Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378

...the market will gain positive momentum above the *1303/*1313 key overhead resistance

...failure below key resistance suggests high risk for a sharp downside reversal to challenge the March Low *1249 initially - scope to strech lower to the December 16 Low *1233 - including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...the SPX 500 Close above the June 22 Peak *1299 sets the first line support into the *1281/*1284 range

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 30 June 2011-

SPX 500_VIX (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Confirming Strength:

-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in positive_daily inflows 'uptick' in positive
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-New Lows: 13 < 28 danger zone < panic zone 50

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'uptick' in contraction
-Institutional selling action_if institutions break the support line with a lower/low = have broken the selling uptrend 
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 17.17 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'downtick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 76 < 180 minimum target
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 0.001_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.34 neutral

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

mixed to positive intraday bias_strength neutral

Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 - reducing

...the market gains positive momentum above the *1303/*1313 key overhead resistance
...the SPX 500 pushed past the *1303/*1313 key overhead resistance in todays trading so far - setting the tone for further gains to target the June 1 High *1345 if the market can continues to trade above the June 2 High *1319 - first line support slips up into the current *1291/*1301 range - worsening short term overbought condition introduces high risk for a corrective move to affirm support at *1292/*1301

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Greece Firesale:

http://i55.tinypic.com/6r4gur.png

...thought the Greeps (sorry: Greeks) were smarter than that...

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 01 July 2011-

SPX 500_VIX (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Confirming Strength:

(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Institutional selling action_fell lower_trend line down trending
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in positive_daily inflows 'uptick' in positive
-New Lows: 13 < 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'huge uptick' into low expansion
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +2.33_positive NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: +2.33 bullish

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30-VIX 16.52 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'downtick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 85 < 180 minimum target

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

positive intraday bias_index testing resistance today
Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert

-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 - reducing

...index testing resistance today

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 5 July 2011-

SPX 500_VIX (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Confirming Strength:

-SPX 500 1st. July_BUY - Condition_markets overbought
-SPX 500_C-RSI 30 +5.53
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'huge uptick' into mid-expansion
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Institutional selling action_down trend
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in positive_daily inflows 'uptick' in positive
-New Lows: 3 < 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +4.87_positive NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock/Broad market stock ratio: +2.51 bullish

Confirming Weakness:

-VIX 15.87 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'downtick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 162 < 180 minimum target

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:
Traders: positive intraday bias_overbought markets
Conservative: remain in Cash until Overbought resolved_ despite 1st. July Buy Condition
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 - reducing

...overbought markets - huge inflowing liquidity last two trading sessions - further gains to current overhead resistance *1346 (the June 1 High *1345) possible - risk for a corrective shakeout to *1293 first line support

...the SPX 500 holding just below current overhead resistance *1346 (the June 1 High *1345) - failure below/at resistance introduces high risk for a corrective shakeout to *1293 support - trading below current *1316 signals first signs of weakness

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

A77 ... Could be a bit of profit taking in the next few days but onwards and upwards from there. AA, being one of the first to report, has lead the way after dropping below its 200 MA and then rebounding about 10% in the last two/three weeks and doing so before the S&P500. A good sign IMNSHO.

Hi Belgarion,

...liquidity inflows over the last two trading sessions were exeptionally large and the index may flatline or attempt to go higher for a while longer - but the heavily overbought condition will catch up at some stage - not a 'BUY NOW' market

...also, over the length of the bullish recovery since March 2007, the leader stocks/broad market stocks ratio has opened up a huge negative divergence - so be aware of who is buying this market at this stage

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 6 July 2011-

Confirming Strength:

-SPX 500 1st. July_BUY - Condition_markets overbought
-SPX 500_C-RSI 30 +5.31 - C-RSI 9 > C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'downtick' in mid-expansion
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Institutional selling action_down trend
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in positive_daily inflows 'downtick' in positive
-New Lows: 7 < 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +4.28_positive NYA-Momentum-Leadership stock/Broad market stock ratio: +2.67 bullish

Confirming Weakness:

-VIX 16.06 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'uptick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 144 < 180 minimum target

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:Traders: positive intraday bias_overbought markets
Conservative: remain in Cash until Overbought resolved_ despite 1st. July Buy Condition
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 - reducing

...the SPX 500 slightly lower after dipping ahead of the June 1 High *1345 to intraday Low *1331 - markets remain overbought - risk for a corrective shakeout to affirm current*1295 trendline support/(June 22 Peak *1299) briefly

...a successful defense of current*1295 trendline support/(June 22 Peak *1299) would signal the start of a larger rally targeting the May High *1370 - potential to trade higher towards the *1400 Psych barrier

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 7 July 2011-

(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
...unless the VIX aborts this pattern within the next few days (by moving sideways or lower), then the market will start to increase its risk and fear levels

Confirming Strength:

-SPX 500 1st. July_BUY - Condition_markets overbought-SPX 500_C-RSI 30 +5.57 - C-RSI 9 > C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'downtick' in mid-expansion
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Institutional selling action_down trend
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in positive_daily inflows 'downtick' in positive
-New Lows: 14 < 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +4.05_positive NYA-Momentum-Leadership stock/Broad market stock ratio: +2.99 bullish

Confirming Weakness:

-VIX 16.34 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'uptick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 156 < 180 minimum target

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

Traders: positive intraday bias_overbought markets
Conservative: remain in Cash until Overbought resolved_ despite 1st. July Buy Condition
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 increasing

...the SPX 500 sliced comfortably through the June 1 High *1345 - appears set to challenge the May High *1371

...worsening overbought conditions and a current VIX (15.91) still unable to wipe out the 15.23 long term support leaves the market short of a clean bull picture - risks of a larger pullback increasing in a market heading towards the May High with short term support *1326

...a successful defense in the *1326 support should motivate the market to take out the May High *1371 to trade higher towards the *1400 Psych barrier initially

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 8 July 2011-

(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
Institutional Core Holding - Broadening Top pattern_possible H&S

Confirming Strength:

-SPX 500 1st. July_BUY - Condition_markets over-extended
-SPX 500_C-RSI 30 +7.8 - C-RSI 9 > C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'uptick' in mid-expansion
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Institutional selling action_down trend
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in positive_daily inflows 'uptick' in positive
-New Lows: 7 < 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +5.96_positive NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock/Broad market stock ratio: +5.47 bullish

NOTE: Leadership Stocks ratio at 6-month High yesterday_NYA C-RSI 6-month negative divergent

-New Highs Trending Indicator: 214 > 180 minimum target

NOTE: Negative divergence from February to now between the New Highs and S&P 500

Confirming Weakness:

-VIX 16.34 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'uptick'

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

Traders: positive intraday bias_over-extended markets
Conservative: remain in Cash until Over-extension resolved_ despite 1st. July Buy Condition
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 increasing

...worsening overbought conditions and a current VIX (15.91) still unable to wipe out the 15.23 long term support leaves the market short of a clean bull picture - risks of a larger pullback increasing in a market heading towards the May High *1375 with short term support *1326

...the SPX 500 bashing at the start of todays session lacked follow through strength - above short term 6 July support *1331 - additional strength can be expected to keep the push towards the May Peak *1375 alive - a short consolidation in the July 6 *1331 support and July 7 High *1356 parameters possible

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Sunday, July 10, 2011

SPX 500 Psych Barrier *1400

(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

...reasonable to assume the market keen to challenge the *1400 Psych Barrier for Bear_Bull clarity

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

200 MA being observed. Bollies not. Nervous times.

- market moving sideways - a positive earning bias will support an upward break and vice versa - in the meantime, a position covering the short side above *1310_*1356 with a reducing bias below *1310 following the upward moving 200-day MA as guidance

[evilroyrule]

Not sure that earnings alone will break the sideway movements. Two things appear to dominate US thinking at present. The raising of the deficit and various eurozone crissis. Both, IMNSHO are noise, that hides the fact that everything is basically going-to-plan as we come out of the GFC. Once this noise is removed, the market will rocket upwards making up for lost time. Same pattern as last year.

and in the spring we shall get married.

couldnt agree more with anything i have read lately. i am raising a loan to buy more. giddy up little pony.

[Entrep]

GDP out on Friday for the US. I expect action sideways or down, not up.

[winner69]

GDP out on Friday for the US. I expect action sideways or down, not up.

Looksm like it came out last week .... consensus was 3.3% and it came in at 1.3% ..... and the previous quarter was revised down by 0.8% to 2.3% .... and the economy is stuffed good and proper .... and this is why the markets are tanking big time

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2011/07/30/an-economy-at-stall-speed.aspx

[janner]

Agree Belg.. The US is still the engine of " New "...

[Entrep]

Looksm like it came out last week .... consensus was 3.3% and it came in at 1.3% ..... and the previous quarter was revised down by 0.8% to 2.3% .... and the economy is stuffed good and proper .... and this is why the markets are tanking big time

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2011/07/30/an-economy-at-stall-speed.aspx

Sorry I meant the employment number this Friday

[Entrep]

Except the USD

[Hoop]

THE CRASH IN CONTEXT: Stocks Are Still ~30% Overvalued (http://www.businessinsider.com/the-crash-in-context-stocks-are-still-30-overvalued-2011-8)

Problem with "normalised earnings" at this juncture is that it doesn't take account of the huge cash mountains many companies have. If you strip out these cash mountains from the sp on the basis that most will be paid out as divies or invested for growth the result is not 21x as suggested by the article but quite a bit lower.

Hi Belg

That article is of amazingly poor quality from a guy with his market experience...

It should be noted that you can have a falling PE ratio and a rising shareprice...it happened with the Aords before 2008 and the S&P 500 since the crash.....so Henry of all people should not infer that a big drop in shareprice is needed to correct a overly high PE Ratio.

I certainly won't be praising him when (if) the shareprice falls...If it does fall and many analysis beleive it will, it will be for these reasons.

http://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-PE-Report.pdf (19 pages)

[Hoop]

Had a bit of rare time so I watched 20 minutes of CNBC's Fast Money this morning.
Jeff Weiss a TA chartist who I haven't heard of before gave a informative interview.

approx Quote: "...The S&P 500 has suffered Technical damage and on the monthly chart it has broken its 17 month moving average. The S&P 500 needs to rise above 1220 or ideally 1250 and stay up above there for the rest of the month to repair this damage otherwise the future looks poor. The 17 monthly average breaks have only been wrong once in the last 23 years...."

He goes on to mention how the primary trend line and the S&R lines all meet at the 17 month MA break area ..interesting and spooky. (I haven't drawn these on the chart below)

I have drawn up a similar chart ( I added the secular bits )
There seems to be a break in 1998 on my chart but I didn't see it on his chart.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/agtoihr7n0klkmccv58q.png

[winner69]

Hi Belg

That article is of amazingly poor quality from a guy with his market experience...

Its a wonder that Henry hasn't called the S&P500 a LOS (load of ****e) .... that's what Mr Spitzer didn't like about him whwn he was making his calls on dot coms etc back in the hey day

His call on Amazon was spot on though

[dumbass]

Had a bit of rare time so I watched 20 minutes of CNBC's Fast Money this morning.
Jeff Weiss a TA chartist who I haven't heard of before gave a informative interview.

approx Quote: "...The S&P 500 has suffered Technical damage and on the monthly chart it has broken its 17 month moving average. The S&P 500 needs to rise above 1220 or ideally 1250 and stay up above there for the rest of the month to repair this damage otherwise the future looks poor. The 17 monthly average breaks have only been wrong once in the last 23 years...."

He goes on to mention how the primary trend line and the S&R lines all meet at the 17 month MA break area ..interesting and spooky. (I haven't drawn these on the chart below)

I have drawn up a similar chart ( I added the secular bits )
There seems to be a break in 1998 on my chart but I didn't see it on his chart.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/agtoihr7n0klkmccv58q.png

hi hoop , where is the primary trendline converging on 1220 , i think its a critical area of resistance going back multi year but i cant see a trendline anywhere near ?

[Hoop]

Hi Dumbass

Yeah I might've misquoted him..I only pricked up my ears and started to listen properly a few seconds after he started so maybe he said 1270 not 1220...Its possible the video is on the fast money site to verify.... but really.... only if you have the spare time to track it down...as I have mentioned the guts of his interview.

yeah the S&R and primary trendline was a bit higher at 1270...I changed the 17month SMA to WMA it made hardly any difference to the monthly chart but raised the level to 1259 ..so a lot closer..... maybe he was working with the 17Month WMA when he made that junction remark

Anyway here is a different perspective chart which highlights the converging lines and the total bearish break. This time I used a daily index as it highlights the exact break value..... the downside is a lot of extra index "noise".

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/osp9mdlyerxsijwa5c4u.png

[dumbass]

i found it hoop on the cnbc site , i hve no idea how he draws the trendline on the chart.
i suspect he just drawn it to give more strength to his argument, i cant see how he plots it at all .

[ananda77]

Market Update -data point 6 September 2011-

Market Internals:

VIX Close_31.8 Friday 02 September 2011 still indicating a nervous market

VIX Close_< 31 first cautious signal the market ready to continue the bull trend

VIX < 29.3 a strong positve for the market

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

...US markets closed Monday 5 September 2011 - SPX 500 futures continued the decline to the *1136 level - trading below or a Close below *1136 signals weakness with risks high for more downside to challenge current *1114 - potential to move lower to challenge the *1103 bullmarket level

...expectations are, the bullmarket to continue and intraday breaks below *1103 all the way down to the August 27 Low *1066 seen as a medium term buying opportunity

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Market Internals:

VIX Close_< 31 first cautious signal the market ready to continue the bull trend
VIX < 29.3 a strong positve for the market
VIX Close_37 Tuesday 06 September 2011- hardly inspires confidence

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

...for the time being, the market respected the *1136 support with an intraday Low *1140 - futures moving higher reaching out into resistance current *1178_*1185 - potential to move ahead reaching out into current *1220 based on *1168 holding as support

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Market Internals:

VIX Close_< 31 first cautious signal the market ready to continue the bull trend
VIX < 29.3 a strong positve for the market
VIX Close_33.38 Wednesday 07 September 2011- remains in the cautious/danger zone > 31_29.3
C-RSI-30 negative -7.1

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

...no time wasted - the SPX 500 pushed through the current *1178_*1185 resistance into the Spetember 2 congestion High *1202 - potential to move ahead reaching out into current *1220 resistance based on current *1187 holding as support

...although market internals remain weak, the current rally has the potential for further upside based on S&P 500 versus % of S&P 500 Stocks > 50-D MA = 12.35 near extreme low levels

...however, there are risks that the September 2 congestion High *1202 caps the upside and the market turns bearish again - in that case, expect the September 6 Low *1136 to fly out the window, pushing the index for a second test of the bull level *1103 at a minimum

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 9 September 2011-

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

Trade: sold the SPX 500 *1202 - Target Range: below *1096 - Stop: *1187

...after SPX 500 futures managed to hold the *1187 support consolidating all day long yesterday, the September 2 congestion High *1202 capped the upside and the following impulsive sell-off just stopped short of the September 6 Low *1136

....the market now hit oversold but needs to hold the *1136/*1146 support range to manage another rally attempt into the *1168/*1178 resistance

...maket internals deteriorated with a VIX Close way above the 31 peace level - expectations are, the market will fail the *1136 support and push lower for a second test of the bull level *1103 at a minimum - chances are, the market to stretch lower to the August 27 2010 High *1066 before turning bullish again

Kind Regards

[Entrep]

winner, dumbass, hoop - any new thoughts on the US markets?

cheers

[dumbass]

my feeling is that we are setting up for a rally to suck a few bulls in , target is the 1240 pivot.

this is really just a set up for a bigger short wave lower , i like to trade the counter trend rallies but with extreme caution, safer bet is to short this rally.


long from 1140 stop to break even

[ananda77]

Market Internals:

VIX Close_< 31 first cautious signal the market ready to continue the bull trend
VIX < 29.3 a strong positve for the market
VIX Close_38.59 12 September 2011- remains in the cautious/danger zone > 31_29.3

C-RSI-30 negative -8.66

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378 Trade: sold the SPX 500 *1202 - Target Range: below *1096 - Stop: *1187

...holding the *1136/*1146 support range, the SPX 500 rallied into the *1168/*1178 resistance - further upside potential into the *1178 short term trendline resistance based on the September 12 Congestion High *1151 holding

...above trendline resistance *1178, upside potential carries the index int overhead resistance current *1235

...failing *1178, the market turns bearish again - in that case, expect the September 6 Low *1136 to fly out the window, pushing the index for a second test of the bull level *1103 at a minimum

Kind Regards

[dumbass]

carefull belg that nearly makes you a sucker!

[Entrep]

A greek default seems inevitable now... along with many EU bank downgrades. The whole rally this morning on some Chinese buying bonds rumour seemed ridiculous.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

A greek default seems inevitable now... along with many EU bank downgrades. The whole rally this morning on some Chinese buying bonds rumour seemed ridiculous.

I agree the China story seems weak to me also to move world markets.


If this is the case in the absence of any other major developments US may be weaker tomorrow ...

[ananda77]

http://i53.tinypic.com/2qao01z.png

...the SPX 500 2yr/week: a bullish set-up above the June 17 2010 High *1133 - any violation of the key support signals weakness ahead - any Close below key support while price < 200-d MA_plus extreme bearish sentiment = extreme risk for violent price falls

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

winner, dumbass, hoop - any new thoughts on the US markets?

cheers
Hi Entrep
It seems we all have different views chartwise...eh.....who said drawing chart lines was easy:)

My chart below started off simple but I have managed to complicate it to reinforce my bearish view.

My easy answer is "It's Ugly.

The chart below shows that the small 1120 support has become an extremely important level...if it breaks you can kiss your investor arse goodbye.

My view is bearish because
....1120 is a weak support level it had a little influence during the bull correction in the June 2010 then August 2010 but nothing to speak of before that.

....When Bollinger Bands squeeze up (purple arrows) they indicate a change of trend momentum often a reverse trend

....The Volume shows a possible concave trend occurring indicating another increase in volume in the near future ,,,more chance it being a sell volume increase and especially so if the 1120 support fails.

....I normally don't get too hung up on primary trend lines breaking because they do during some bull market corrections...however the S&P 500 broke a support level level as well as followed the leaders ASX Europe Asia markets down.

....I added the 30yr treasury bonds as well ..the yield fall shows money flowing towards them (a perceived safe haven) This flow of money out of the Equity Markets causes those markets to lose momentum. The last time they were this low was late January 2009 during the last phase of the bear... the capitulation phase:(.

....S&P500 as well as many other indexes are technically broken. The S&P has to have a big climb to get out of this bear hole...Above the orange 1280 level....a big ask atm.

Chart got too cluttered to add more.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/a2a7nuh0wdm5mbfulov9.png

[Financially dependant]

Hi Hoop, thanks for another great explanation of our current situation, I always value your posts....I am interested in why you call the 1120 support weak? With such high volume buying into the S&P at that level doesn't it give the support strength?? Always interested in your view (and anyone else who wants to chip in). Cheers FD.

[winner69]

PPT kicked in late yesterday by the looks of it

[Hoop]

Hi Hoop, thanks for another great explanation of our current situation, I always value your posts....I am interested in why you call the 1120 support weak? With such high volume buying into the S&P at that level doesn't it give the support strength?? Always interested in your view (and anyone else who wants to chip in). Cheers FD.
Hi FD

Yeah... testing support under very high distributional volume and succeeding (not breaking) does show strength.
A quick simple way to gauge how strong a S&R level is, is by looking back through history and notice how many successful tests and retests that level has had without breaking. Yes volume is a factor as well...The strength of S&R levels can wax and wane over the years so a high frequency of successful tests without breaking in a more recent period would make the investor perceive the S&R level to be stronger than if the tests were say 10 years ago.

My orginal thinking when writing my last post was that the 1120 support was reached during the final stages of the freefall event and the market was exhausted by the time 1120 was reached at it sat on this 1120 level for a few days exhausted (buyers = much lesser sellers). The successful retest of the 1120 10 days later was pleasing and gave a slim hope for the bullish investors that the bottom may have been reached (double bottom).

I had another look going back to when 1120 S&R level first appeared in April 1998 onwards...yeah I may have been a little harsh on calling it a weak support, it has had some successful tests and it does seem to be a somewhat stronger level in mid 2010 even though the 1120 resistance held under lower than average volume...OK lets call it a medium strength 1120 support and up the chances of a possible bottoming process...however the chart still looks just as ugly as before .

[ananda77]

Trader Update:

...with an intraday Low *1157, the market supported the September 12 Congestion High *1151 short term support and continued to rally into short term trendline resistance current *1175

...above current trendline resistance *1175, upside potential carries the index into overhead resistance current *1231 - watch out for violation of the current *1160 short term support

...failing *1175, the market turns bearish again - in that case, expect the September 6 Low *1136 to fly out the window, pushing the index for a second test of the bull level *1103 at a minimum

Kind Regards

[dumbass]

im still feeling the market will grind higher from here in a corrective pattern ( lots of overlapping messy waves) before the market impulses lower .

looking at hoops chart if he changes the lower horizontal support line to a rising line it makes a channel ( bear flag) we will probably follow this up for a few

weeks in a 3 wave structure 1240 - 1260 then lower from here .

riding longs from a couple of days ago

[Financially dependant]

Hi FD

Yeah... testing support under very high distributional volume and succeeding (not breaking) does show strength.
A quick simple way to gauge how strong a S&R level is, is by looking back through history and notice how many successful tests and retests that level has had without breaking. Yes volume is a factor as well...The strength of S&R levels can wax and wane over the years so a high frequency of successful tests without breaking in a more recent period would make the investor perceive the S&R level to be stronger than if the tests were say 10 years ago.

My orginal thinking when writing my last post was that the 1120 support was reached during the final stages of the freefall event and the market was exhausted by the time 1120 was reached at it sat on this 1120 level for a few days exhausted (buyers = much lesser sellers). The successful retest of the 1120 10 days later was pleasing and gave a slim hope for the bullish investors that the bottom may have been reached (double bottom).

I had another look going back to when 1120 S&R level first appeared in April 1998 onwards...yeah I may have been a little harsh on calling it a weak support, it has had some successful tests and it does seem to be a somewhat stronger level in mid 2010 even though the 1120 resistance held under lower than average volume...OK lets call it a medium strength 1120 support and up the chances of a possible bottoming process...however the chart still looks just as ugly as before .

Thanks Hoop....agreed the chart does look ugly

[ananda77]

Trader Update:Hedged *1378

Trade: sold the SPX 500 *1202 - Target Range: below *1096 - Stop: *1187

...the SPX 500 bounced off the *1160 support with an intraday Low *1163 and extending above the short term trendline current *1176 into the *1187/*1192 resistance cluster - but labouring

...watch for an imminent bear strike failing the *1187/*1192 resistance cluster with expectation, the September 6 Low *1136 to fly out the window, pushing the index for a second test of the bull level *1103 at a minimum

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

im still feeling the market will grind higher from here in a corrective pattern ( lots of overlapping messy waves) before the market impulses lower .

looking at hoops chart if he changes the lower horizontal support line to a rising line it makes a channel ( bear flag) we will probably follow this up for a few

weeks in a 3 wave structure 1240 - 1260 then lower from here .

riding longs from a couple of days ago

Sorry Dumbass... cant change it to a ascending rectangle channel / flag. Us chartists can only play with the cards the market deals to us....and in the S&P 500 case it is a bearish right angle ascending broadening event feature which will soon may change from a feature to a formation, still a bearish formation though which could continue for months..however for the optimists the news gets better as each day passes these event features such as the flags and pennants become formations thereby lessening the odds and delays the continuation downwards...Bad news is that this broadening developments is deemed bearish in a Bear market cycle and not so much so in a bull...sooooo... the million dollar question is... Is the S&P500 in a Bear Market Cycle? I think so, but others may and do disagree including some famous Guru's.

To look for confirmations on the possible which way the S&P500 could go in the next week or two ...We can compare charts with similar close proximity Equity Indexes such as the DOW for example ......This will make Dumbass's day ..yep..voila!!.. The DOW has a channel bear flag:D ( or a developing ascending rectangle bottom formation)

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/z1xkv8yx2enln478onj4.png

[dumbass]

im not sure what your looking at hoop , looks like a tradeable bear flag to me.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/sp500-3.jpg

[Hoop]

im not sure what your looking at hoop , looks like a tradeable bear flag to me.

Ahhh...I see our differences

You work off the lowest and highest and I work off closing day figures.
Now...you people can see how complicated TA can be ...if you ask 5 people to draw a simple trendline I betcha you will get 5 different lines :confused:

Who's right how's wrong? It not worth the argument.

The reason I use closing day figures on a daily chart is it lessens the "noise" ...and....when you go longer than a year you can't decipher Candlesticks or OHLC and daily charts revert to solid closing day lines anyway. Therefore I keep to the same trendline criteria discipline....for obvious reasons I do realise I can't do this on short term and very short term charts.

Working off weekly and monthly lessens the "noise" again for longer term analysis...but the criteria is different so its another chart discipline.

but...I will probably be at a disagreement with many short term traders on this method.

In defense to closing day highs notice on my post #1023 chart above my near horizontal bottom line is validated by 4 closing day touches + 2 lowest day lows... Dumbass your upward sloping bottom line isn't validated:p:)

Each to their own and its best to keep using the discipline that works best for you........and in most to nearly all cases the deduction got out of these slightly different patterns usually ends up with the same forecast

[ananda77]

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

Trade: sold the SPX 500 *1202 - Target Range: below *1096 - Stop: *1187 - Exit Trade

...the SPX 500 respected short term support *1187 and extended its bounce off the September 12 Low *1136 into the August 21 Congestion High *1208 - short term support moves up to *1194

...potential for more upside into the August 31 Congestion High *1230/current overhead resistance *1235 - however, the index traded into short term oversold with momentum moving ahead of price - potential for a corrective move to affirm the *1183/*1178 support range

...the current rally remains on track above *1180 - failing the congestive clusters with a violation of the *1180 support signals high risk a bear strike is underway

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378


http://i56.tinypic.com/35cehk2.png
...that and a declining oil price ahead of overhead key resistances plus FOMC meeting next week - tighten up on hedging strategies

Kind Regards

[peat]

3612mind the gap.

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 19 September 2011-

Hedged *1378

...the SPX 500 advance stalled overbought *1220 ahead of the August 31 Congestion High *1230. The consequent impulsive sell off violated short term *1194 support with an intraday Low *1188 so far. Risks are high for more downside to affirm the *1183/*1178 support range ahead of the FOMC outcome

...any violation of the *1180 support will strenghten the view that a bear strike is underway that will attempt to take out the September 6 Low *1136 with high risk to stretch lower to test the August 27 2010 High *1066

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 20 September 2011-

Hedged *1378

...the SPX 500 again rejected *1220, unable to lock in gains ahead of the FOMC outcome - never the less, above the weekly September 11 Close *1190, the index remains on track for more upside with the August 31 High *1231 as the next overhead target

...violating the weekly September 11 Close *1190, signals weakness ahead with downside potential targeting the September weekly Low *1182 support

...any violation of the *1180 support will strenghten the view that a bear strike is underway that will attempt to take out the September 6 Low *1136 with high risk to stretch lower to test the August 27 2010 High *1066

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

As The Shadow Banking System Imploded In Q2, Bernanke's Choice Has Been Made For Him
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/shadow-banki...s-been-made-him (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/shadow-banking-system-imploded-q2-bernankes-choice-tomorrow-has-been-made-him)

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 21 September 2011-

Trader Update:

Hedged: *1378

...the SPX 500 got hammered through the *1190/*1180 supports - impulsive sell-off confirms the September 20 High *1220 as top

...short of a miracle (rigging the markets), immediate follow through lower would see a re-test of the September 6 Low *1136 - high risk to stretch lower to test the August 27 2010 High *1066

Kind Regards

[dumbass]

i still favour one more rally that will exceed 1220 top (will be a lot of short stops above 1220 ) , so i guess i believe in miracles otherwise we are down from here.

very interesting markets.

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 22 September 2011-

...the SPX 500 *1066 target trendline in the 5yr weekly time frame (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com )

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

Trade: sold the SPX 500 *1194 - Target Range: below *1096 - Stop: *1168

...the market immediately followed through lower after yesterday's romp and sliced through the September 6 Low *1136 support - currently stabilizing following an intraday test of the August 21 Low *1117

...the selling over the last two days has been exhaustive and the market is heavily oversold - however, a violation of the September 6 Low *1136 support indicates upticks should be capped by the September 22 Congestion High *1158 at a maximum

...failing the September 22 Congestion High *1158 signals high risk for more downside with the August 27 2010 High *1066 as target

Kind Regards

[peat]

the rising wedge definitely broke last night... its all on folks

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 22 September 2011-

Hedged *1378

Trade: sold the SPX 500 *1194 - Target Range: below *1096 - Stop: *1168

...selling over the last two days has been exhaustive and the market is heavily oversold - however, a violation of the September 6 Low *1136 support indicates upticks should be capped by the September 22 Congestion High *1158 at a maximum

...failing the September 22 Congestion High *1158 signals high risk for more downside with the August 27 2010 High *1066 as target

...the SPX 500 remains heavily oversold on the weekly indicator 1yr_2yr - quite oversold on the 5yr - as a result:

Trade: sold the SPX 500 *1194 - Target Range: below *1096 - Stop: *1168 - Exit Trade *1133

...the market still unable to close the index below *1136 in the weekly (chart: www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...the market extended the oversold corrective drive from the September 26 Low *1108 and pushed into the September 22 Congestion High *1158 as expected

..failing the September 22 Congestion High *1158 signals high risk for more downside with the August 27 2010 High *1066 as target - however, above the September 6 Low *1136 support, the market will continue to push into the June Low *1258

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 27 September 2011-

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

...the index remains comfortably above the September 6 Low *1136 support - gaining additional strength above the short term weekly trendline current *1148 and the September 22 Congestion High *1158 - currently trading within striking distance of the September 9 High *1194

...above the short term weekly trendline current *1148, the market will aim to take out the overhead resistance formation ranging from the September 9 High *1194 to the August 31 High *1230 to push higher into the June Low *1258

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 27 September 2011-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

...unfortunately, the market could not follow up on yesterdays's gains and peaked at the September 27 High *1196 - the September 22 Congestion High *1158 and *1148 support are now at risk

,,,a violation or a Close below the September 22 Congestion High *1158 and *1148 support will likely accelerate moves to the downside with the *1100 Psych barrier as target - high risk to stretch lower towards the August 27 2010 High *1066

...however, above the September 22 Congestion High *1158 and *1148 support the market will aim to take out the overhead resistance formation ranging from the September 9 High *1194 to the August 31 High *1230 to push higher into the June Low *1258


Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 30 September 2011-

chart Institutional Core Holding http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com


...the market internals still need to improve but while sentiment remains negative, institutional core holding displays a double bottom

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

That's a good thing, right?

... yes, if the market continues to built positive momentum (consolidates above *1103) expect the 3. bull leg up...the bull market can not be written off just yet

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 30 September 2011-

chart Institutional Core Holding http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...the market internals still need to improve but while sentiment remains negative, institutional core holding displays a double bottom

Kind Regards

...the SPX 500 so far holding *1148 support suggesting continuing consolidation and potential for more upside to test short term trendline resistance current *1162

...failing below *1162, price action will likely accelerate to the downside for a test of the *1100 Psych barrier with high risk to stretch lower towards the August 27 2010 High *1066

Kind Regards

[winner69]

Interesting that the S&P is within a just a few notches of where we were exactly one year ago .... and we all know what happened after that ... but, of course, this time its different ... :)

you are so right Belg

And also just a notch away from where we were 13 years ago ..... and 10 years ago ..... and 7 years ago ..... and 3 years ago

And we know what happened then .... but this it is different eh

[Hoop]

Interesting that the S&P is within a just a few notches of where we were exactly one year ago .... and we all know what happened after that ... but, of course, this time its different ... :)

Yes Belg...beware of the Secular Rabbit..

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 3 October 2011-

monthly SPX 500 chart http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

...with market internals a sea of red and sentiment at extreme Lows, the SPX 500 *1103 bull/bear battle in full swing

...prepare to bungi jump on a Close below *1103 - other than that a mild intraday violation is acceptable - and yes there are those bear traps to consider

...not being caught in the middle may be the correct strategy here - or risk a long Trade with a sensible stop

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

13th September 2011
Hi Entrep
It seems we all have different views chartwise...eh.....who said drawing chart lines was easy:)

My chart below started off simple but I have managed to complicate it to reinforce my bearish view.

My easy answer is "It's Ugly.

The chart below shows that the small 1120 support has become an extremely important level...if it breaks you can kiss your investor arse goodbye.

My view is bearish because
....1120 is a weak support level it had a little influence during the bull correction in the June 2010 then August 2010 but nothing to speak of before that.

....When Bollinger Bands squeeze up (purple arrows) they indicate a change of trend momentum often a reverse trend

....The Volume shows a possible concave trend occurring indicating another increase in volume in the near future ,,,more chance it being a sell volume increase and especially so if the 1120 support fails.

....I normally don't get too hung up on primary trend lines breaking because they do during some bull market corrections...however the S&P 500 broke a support level level as well as followed the leaders ASX Europe Asia markets down.

....I added the 30yr treasury bonds as well ..the yield fall shows money flowing towards them (a perceived safe haven) This flow of money out of the Equity Markets causes those markets to lose momentum. The last time they were this low was late January 2009 during the last phase of the bear... the capitulation phase:(.

....S&P500 as well as many other indexes are technically broken. The S&P has to have a big climb to get out of this bear hole...Above the orange 1280 level....a big ask atm.



All bad news today...1120 broken .....trading target is 1000 = 1220-(1340-1120) ....there is strong support at 1050 so perhaps the fall may arrest that that point.

Below 1050 support is the primary support at 1022 if it drops below this point the S&P500 will technically go from a bear tide to confirm a cyclic bear market,
Since the S&P 500 seems to be lagging other countries share markets who have already confirmed their cyclic bear market cycle it seems "odds on" the American markets will follow at sometime in the near future.

updated #1023 chart
http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/mt0i9ekh4ma79fgczxma.png

[peat]

yeh I agree Hoop
referring back to my maroon support resistance lines and I set this level a while back

then
3634


now
3635

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 4 October 2011-

Hedged *1378 - Exit Market

...the SPX 500 traded into striking distance of the August 27 2010 High *1066 with an intraday Low *1075 - currently on the rebound above rhe Psych *1100 level

...market in desperate need to consolidate at these levels to avoid panic - a Close above the Psych level *1100 -and holding- would be the start of a consolidation period to wear off the extreme oversold levels in the market - only 6% of unweighted positive nimber of stocks trading with positive strength remain on the SPX 500-

...assuming *1066 support holds, a bull market rally back to the June Low *1258 will be underway

Kind Regards

[Financially dependant]

What spiked the late rally?

Helicopter Ben is warming up the chopper and just talked the market back into the Green.....Timing is everything.....

[winner69]

What spiked the late rally?Doesn't really matter Belg ... what matters is today is a key reversal day - bear market over and all good stuff from here ... (the cost of pyramids just went up)

from yahoo finance

Key reversal day?
October 4, 2011, 4:15 PM.

Might the stock market have hit a major bottom on the very day that it also satisfied the official definition of a bear market?

That distinct possibility is raised by the market’s stunning recovery in the last hour of today’s trading session, which appears to satisfy the definition of a “key reversal day”—a technical event that some technicians believe to be potentially quite bullish.

A key reversal day occurs when the market records a new low and then rallies to close above the previous day’s close. And that’s exactly what happened Tuesday: The S&P 500 SPX fell to an intra-day low early in the session at 1,074.77 — which was 21.2% below this benchmark’s closing bull market high of 1,363.61, hit last Apr. 29. That’s in excess of the 20% drop that is often used as the dividing line between a mere correction and a major bear market.

By the end of the session, however, the S&P 500 had rallied from that new intra-day low to close at 1123.95, up 2.3% on the session, and up more than 49 points from the session’s low.

To be sure, a key reversal day in an of itself does not guarantee that the bear market ended today.

Technicians consider the pattern to have primarily short-term significance.

Still, it would be ironic indeed for the bear market to have come to an end on the very day it convinced many that the bull market was dead.

-Mark Hulbert

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Dow down 200 points, closes up 153 points after last hour rally.

Big factor was FT article and market talk about support for EU banks with the set up of a "BadBank"
350 odd points on talk ...

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 5 October 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http:www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...price action today, following in a market driven by extreme negative sentiment and close to panic, suggests a significant bottom has been established

...assuming a bottom is in place above *1065 support, a bull market rally back to the June Low *1258 is underway

...just to be sure, a VIX below minimum 31- better below 29.3 would add certainty and sustainability to a third leg up in the current bull market

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 6 October 2011-

SPX 500 weekly chart: http//www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...down to the nitty gritties - the market needs to continue to built strength in a positive sideways/up move consolidation to weaken the negative overhang in market internals and yesterday's VIX 37.81 Close still represents high fear levels in the market

...look for a bull/bear fight around the *1136 support level for more insight to market direction in the short/medium term

Update:

...so far into the session, the bulls managed to hold the *1136 support with an intraday Low *1135 - now pressing ahead into the September 29 resistance level *1178/*1180 - risks are increasing in the resistance to move lower to affirm the *1100 Psych level/*1112 Congestion Low ahead

...if the *1100 Psych level/*1112 Congestion Low is successfully defended, the market is set to rally back into the June 2011 Low *1258

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 10 October 2011-

chart: http://www.spx500indextracker.blogspot.com
...starting to work off the extreme oversold in the SPX 500 weekly 5-yr

chart: http://www.spx500indextracker.blogspot.com
...large positive divergence in the strength of the NYSE composite index

chart: http://www.spx500indextracker.blogspot.com
...institutional investors accumulated the move - no selling into strength apparent

-However-

chart: http://www.spx500indextracker.blogspot.com
...the breach of the 3-yr VIX overhead resistance Tueday 4th October signals uncertainty down the track

...as a result, above the *1100 Psych level/*1112 Congestion Low, the market is set to rally back into the June 2011 Low *1258 -decision point-

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Update 10 October 2011

...price action remains strong above *1168 support - although a corrective pull back is very likely - trading below *1136 signals first signs of weakness and readiness to pull back to the *1100 Psych level

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 11 October 2011-

15% Hedged: *1200

Trade: buy *1124 Target: *1258 Stop: *1089

...the SPX 500 drifting moderately higher - extending the rally from the October 4 Low *1075 - market internals improving:

-Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutional Investors, and Foreign Liquidity Inflows ticking up
-Institutional Buying and Selling Trending in low accumulation
-the # of Positive Trending stocks moved into Positive territory - # of Negative Trending stocks shifted below the Equilibrium line into Negative territory

However

...risk is growing for a larger corrective shake-out ahead of the strong overhead resistance band *1200/*1230 to affirm the *1100 Psych level/*1102*1112 Congestion ahead

-the VIX currently still above the 31 minimum comfort level
-although the # of very strong stocks moved higher, level still too low to sustain the rally for much longer ahead of strong resistance levels
-Short Term, intra-day Liquidity Flows at overbought

...if the *1100 Psych level/*1102*1112 Congestion is successfully defended, the market is set to rally back into the the June 2011 Low *1258 - potential to move higher towards the 200-day MA

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader update -data point 13 October 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

15% Hedged: *1200

Trade: buy *1124 Target: *1258 Stop: *1089

...price action failed again the *1220 mark on October 12 2011 - while profit taking is apparent at the level, down ticks could not damage the recent uptrend starting from the October 4 2011 Low *1075 just yet

...concerns remain that the level of positive trending stocks is negative divergent to the level of very strong stocks moving higher - not a good look in terms of sustainability of the current up-move, as institutions remain sidelined ahead of earnings

...however, the market needs a Close below the October 12 2011 Low *1185 to signal readiness for an extended corrective shake-out to test the *1112/*1125 congestion

Kind Regards

[Financially dependant]

1224 End of day....

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 14 October 2011-

*15% Hedged: *1200

..the SPX 500 managed a new up-trend High *1125 suggesting further upside to test the August 31 2011 High *1231 - index showing early overbought on daily time frame

...although instituions currently trying a positive bias, no directional committment is apparent - the VIX now trading below the minimum 31 comfort level, but a Close below 29.5 is needed to strengthen the instituional positive bias

...until then, risk are high that the market is near a top - a Close below the October 10 2011 congestion *1182 is needed however for confirmation

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 17 October 2011-

Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...Friday 14 October 2011: a bullish VIX Close 28.4

15% Hedged: *1200

...above study shows institutional buy_sell behavior compared to the VIX: a positive institutional bias under construction in line with continued sideways VIX action (note the positve divergence in the buy_sell spread)

...the VIX Close 28.4 will increase the positive bias substantially for a test to take out the VIX 20 support

...as a result, above the October 10 2011 congestion *1182, the market bias remains bullish - and the All Blacks took out the Australians

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 18 October 2011-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...overbought on the daily time frame combined with strong overhead resistance and continuous lack of institutional directional committment (largely reducing selling and weak accumulation), the market failed the October 14 2011 suggested test of the August 31 2011 High *1231 and corrected down

...a violation or better a Close below the October 10 2011 congestion *1182 would confirm a top and signal, the market is vulnerable to a larger corrective pullback to affirm the *1112/*1125 congestion

...depending on institutional comittment, a successful defended *1100 support will set the index up for a re-test of the August 31 2011 High *1231 - potential to move higher towards the 200-day MA

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 20 October 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

15% Hedged: *1200

...the SPX continues to trade/consolidate above the October 12 2011 Low *1186 and the 31 August 2011 High *1130 working its way out of overbought (78% of SPX 500 stocks currently trending positive) slowly- market bias remains positive but weak without directional committment

...a violation or better a Close below the October 10 2011 congestion *1182 would confirm a top and signal, the market is vulnerable to a larger corrective pullback to affirm the *1112/*1125 congestion

...depending on institutional comittment, a successful defended *1100 support will set the index up for a re-test of the August 31 2011 High *1231 - potential to move higher towards the 200-day MA

Kind Regards

[winner69]

Hoop - I take it that this is not good news when trying to pick where the markets are going - copper at 15 month low

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/copper-slumps-to-15-month-low-on-europe-debt-worries/story-e6frg91x-1226172448609

[Hoop]

Hoop - I take it that this is not good news when trying to pick where the markets are going - copper at 15 month low

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/copper-slumps-to-15-month-low-on-europe-debt-worries/story-e6frg91x-1226172448609

Hi Winner
It's not good news when copper drop as it is seen as an global economic indicator...You get political BS from time to time when USA has a crack at China..one was when China (not the sporting thing..old Chap) trickle dumped US$ and bought copper reserves during the early recovery...however from chart history that's what always happens..... Copper is a good leading indicator to show cyclic changes especially equity change from bear to bull (100% accurate so far in the last 100 years).

What is a very worrying sight is the pause in the equity markets...its like it being suspended and are defying gravity....a bit like those old cartoons when a character e.g Wle-E-Coyote runs of a cliff suspended in mid-air before gravity takes over:D
http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/9tzcd024ey0vzxpn2c5s.jpg

The chart below with the 3 indexes relating to each other shows a worrying divergence towards the S&P500 index

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ouhelowt3o7upk6ohz6.png

[Hoop]

Well....the second confirmation today (first being the MA50 crossover)...the rectangle breakout S&P500 closed at 1238.
Index sitting on the MA200 line....
TA indicators are responding to the index raise and are positive.
Only the networking macro stuff like a couple I drew in the above chart is out of sync...strange??

A smell of a bull trap?

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 25 October 2011-

SPX 50 chart: http://wwwspx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...the SPX 500 broke above the 3 August 2011/17October 2011 key resistance *1233/*1235 to a new 24 October 2011up-trend High *1257 - institutions stay with a positive bias (selling less/weak accumulation) without directional committment

...formidable overhead resistance *1261 ahead!

...above *1220, the index is set to reach out to the next overhead *1317 target going forward, but risks remain for a larger pull-back to re-test the *1220 key support

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 26 October 2011-

100% Hedged: *1258

...the market missed overhead resistance *1261 to leave the 24 October 2011 up-trend High *1257 as a top in place - at least near term - heavy selling pressure followed the intraday High *1254 that closed the index *1229 - below the 3 August 2011/17 October 2011 key resistance *1233/*1235

...the expected larger pull-back to re-test the *1220 key support appears to be underway, supported by the number of very large stocks only leading strong stocks by a very thin margin

...chances are, the market will pull lower to the 21 October 2011 Low *1215 with downside potential reaching out to the 20 October 2011 Low *1197/18 October 2011 Low *1191

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 27 October 2011-

100% Hedged: *1258

...the SPX 500 bounced off the *1220 key support, currently dealing with the 4 August 2011 *1267 weekly High overhead resistance

...above the weekly *1242 trendline support, the market will drive the index into the *1285/*1305 level at a minimum - potential to challenge the 2011 *1376 market top

...expectations are, the yearly 2011 top *1376 will remain in place

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 28 October 2011-

Institutional Index 'Core' Holding: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.co.nz

20% Hedged: *1271

...SPX 500 outlook unchanged above the weekly *1242 trendline support. The market will attempt to drive the index into the *1285/*1305 level at a minimum - potential to challenge the 2011 *1376 market top

...a violation of the 25 October 2011 High *1256 would signal a re-test to affirm the weekly trendline support current *1244 - a Close below the weekly trendline support suggests weakness ahead

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 31 October 2011-

Cot Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...a bullish bias in the market suggests potential to reach higher ground but

Institutional Index 'Core' Holding Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...the institutional index 'Core' Holdings has been driven up hard and fast suggesting a soft consolidation ahead of major resistance

20% Hedged: *1271

..SPX 500 outlook unchanged above the weekly *1242 trendline support. The market will attempt to drive the index into the *1285/*1305 level at a minimum - potential to challenge the 2011 *1376 market top

...the SPX 500 level *1330 - a formidable long term fan line reistance

...a violation of the 25 October 2011 High *1256 would signal a re-test to affirm the weekly trendline support current *1244 - a Close below the weekly trendline support suggests weakness ahead towards the October 26 2011 Low *1221

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 1 November 2011-

20% Hedged: *1271

...the SPX 500 extended losses from the 27 October High *1298 currently testing the 26 October 2011 Low *1221 bouncing off an intraday Low *1216 - so far into the bounce, up-ticks remain unconvincing

...as a result, risk of additional near term weakness could target the 28 September 2011 High *1187 - potential to reach lower towards the October 9 2011 *1162 support Low - setting a near term floor

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Hi Belgarion,

...stuff the markets (over time, the market will surge on news like that) - think it's the correct thing to do - and the only way the Greek have a chance getting their house in order - course, it all depends on which side of the fence you are sitting

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

And we gotta wait 10 weeks for the greeks! Bang goes my theory of steep rises going into Christmas.

And worse - it could be steep losses if the BRICs slows down further ...
This 50% haircut..... investors broke a golden rule.... never invest heavily in an investment that can be effected by a financially unstable country's political power e.g MF Global = greed = disaster. Does it seem like the Chinese are the only group around that has any investment common sense these days.

Lets put this Greek Austerity thing into perspective...to obtain this EURO bailout and 50% writedown the Greek Politicians have to;...
1.....Cut civil servant pay roles by 50%
2.....Cut Welfare by 50%
3.....Remove subsidies....(huge!!!)
4.....Sell all State Assets
5.....Implement controls to monitor and enforce the 1,,2,,3,,above ...also amend Legislation
6.....Have to act quickly...Time is important..Greece is in large capital burn mode

I honestly can't see the above happening ...can you Belg?
The next question to ask is..... who in their right mind would invest their money in Greece now with an interest rate that Greece can afford...eh?

Why the EURO Nations and large financial institutions didn't act a lot sooner to prevent Greece getting so far in the Sh1t is beyond belief....

..this latest Greek thing was enough today to turn the US markets back.. ending a rally and back resembling a primary bear tide.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP50001112011.png

[ananda77]

...just quick stuff out of top of head -

...the SPX 500 successful holding the *1221 support suggests the bullish bias to remain - long term, the market may move into a deep consolidation between the October Low *1066 and 2011 High *1370

...be aware of a market Close below key support *1221

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 3 November 2011-

20% Hedged: *1271

...the SPX 500 successful holding the *1221 support suggests the bullish bias to remain - long term, the market may move into a deep consolidation between the October Low *1066 and 2011 High *1370

...be aware of a market Close below key support *1221

...a Close below *1221 would invite risk for additional near term weakness targeting the 28 September 2011 High *1187 - potential to reach lower towards the October 9 2011 *1162 support Low - setting a near term floor if successfully defended

...for immediate bullish action, the market needs to close above 2 November 2011 High *1242

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 4 November 2011-

20% Hedged: *127

...the SPX 500 settles above the 25 October 2011 High *1258 to close *1261 - ready to take on the 1 August 2011 Low *1273 - 4 October High *1267

...the Institutional Index 'Core' holding sits smack on its neckline support in tune with long term liquidity inflows sitting neutral between contraction/expansion - institutions remain in accumulation - the faster rise of the very strong stocks versus strong stocks suggests a positive bias - however, strength still in negative danger zone

...as a result, the market, in a show of strength, needs to move now decisively, with a Close above the 1 August 2011 Low *1273 - 4 October High *1267 to remain on track to challenge the 2011 Top *1376

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 7 November 2011-

SPX 500 Cotchart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...the market holding on to the bullish bias suggesting potential to move beyond the 1 August 2011 Low *1273 - 4 October High *1267 and to remain on track to challenge the 2011 Top *1376

...improving Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutional Investors, and Foreign Liquidity Inflows into low expansion territory

...number of Very Strong stocks almost equal to the number of Strong stocks - both ticking up and are at the zero line - an up move here correlates with the market moving higher

...institutional Index 'Core' holding just above its neckline support line

...strength +4.2 still holding a weak bias below C-RSI +5

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 8 November 2011-

20% Hedged: *1271

...although drifting sideways near unchanged levels, the VIX Close *29.85 added one more piece to the overall positive bias holding in the market - price action remains above the weekly *1237 trendline support - however

...the rally off the November 1 Low *1215 still appears corrective below the 1 August 2011 Low *1273 - 4 October High *1267 with risk of another leg down to challenge the 28 September 2011 High *1187 - potential to reach lower towards the October 9 2011 *1162 support Low before setting a possible floor if support is successfully defended

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 9 November 2011-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

20% Hedged: *1271

...a bullish bias followed by some bullish price action

...the SPX 500 traded past the 1 August 2011 Low *1273 - 4 October High *1267 to an intraday High *1278 off the November 1 Low *1215 - price action above the 3 November High *1263 remains bullish ahead of the 27 October trading High *1293_the *1300 Psych barrier

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 9 November 2011-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

20% Hedged: *1271

...a bullish bias followed by some bullish price action

...the SPX 500 traded past the 1 August 2011 Low *1273 - 4 October High *1267 to an intraday High *1278 off the November 1 Low *1215 - price action above the 3 November High *1263 remains bullish ahead of the 27 October trading High *1293_the *1300 Psych barrier

...the SPX 500 pushed aggressivley through the 3 November 2011 High *1263 support, showing little respect for the 3 October 2011 Low *1239 suppport to an intraday Low *1229 - settng the Peak for the 1 November Low *1215 rally at the 8 November 2011 *1278

...the violation the 3 October 2011 Low *1239 suppport suggests high risk to follow through lower targeting the 28 September 2011 High *1187 - potential to reach lower towards the October 9 2011 *1162 support Low before setting a possible floor if support is successfully defended

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 10 November 2011-

...the violation the 3 October 2011 Low *1239 suppport suggests high risk to follow through lower targeting the 28 September 2011 High *1187 - potential to reach lower towards the October 9 2011 *1162 support Low before setting a possible floor if support is successfully defended

SPY/VIX/instituional buy_sell Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...the SPX 500 needs to turn sharply and close positive to avoid damage on the SPX 500 to become much more serious

short term liquidity flows chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

-daily short term intra-day Liquidity Flows at a low extreme
-strength remains positive +1
-institutional index 'Core' holding slightly below H&S neckline support
-VIX needs to back down below 30.16 to avoid more serious trouble

...mixed market condition - fear clashing with corporate earnings expectations positive

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 11 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...the SPX 500 turned sharply and opened the week starting 10 November 2011 on a positive note *1229 - as well as setting a higher Low *1228 - as well as closing above the 4 November 2011 Low *1239 - beat that-

...as a result, the positive bias in the market is bruised but not dead - the funeral directors need to hang in there and wait until the market has had the guts full of volatility and follows through sharply lower:

-taking down the 10 November 2011 Low *1228
-taking down the 1 November 2011 Low *1215
-taking down the *1200 Psych barrier

on the way to challenge the 50-dsma current *1192

...a Close below *1192 confirms the 9 November 2011 *1275 as Top

Kind Regards - Arividerci

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 14 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...more positive 11 November 2011 price action just below the 200-dsma *1272.27 supported by rising 50_dsma *1200.78

-closing *1263.85 above the 3 November 2011 Pivot High *1263.2
-VIX closing *30.04 below Pivot 30.16

SPX 500 Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-negative volume divergence continues

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-growth rate ----FTL(follow the leader/very strong) -stocks negative

-weak strength below C-RSI +5

...as a result, mixed internals supporting a market in need for more consolidation between the 1 November Low *1215 and the 200-dsma current *1272.72. However, above the 10 November High *1246.22 and the 3 November 2011 Pivot High *1263.21, price action supports a break above the 200-dsma to challenge the 27 October 2011 Trading High *1292.66. At this stage expectations are, *1292.66 Top will remain in place until market internals favor clear upside potential

...on the downside, any violation of the 1 November *1215 Low signals very HIGH risk for more downside price action to challenge the *1200 Psych barrier as a minimum

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 15 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...initial strength before the Open (Globex) dissipated - the market opened the SPX 500 session at the 11 November 2011 Close *1263.85 - moderating to an intraday Low *1246.68, slightly above the 10 November High *1246.22 - selling remained subdued throughout the session, but uptick strength suggests mild follow through lower to challenge weekly trendline support current *1233 - expectations are, *1233 will act as a near term floor to motivate another attempt to break above the 200-dsma current *1272.10 in the week ahead

SPX 500 Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-moderately lower on light flows

-VIX closing *31.13 moderately above Pivot 30.16
-weak strength below C-RSI +5

FTL-stocks Chart: chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-growth rate ----FTL(follow the leader/very strong) -stocks improved - still in negative territory

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 16 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...another vague bullish attempt to go past the 11 November 2011 High 166.98 - mildly rejected past the 14 November 2011 High *1263.85 with an intraday High *1264.25

the bullish bits:

-momentum 8 November 2011 High 103.81_momentum 15 November 2011 High 103.21
-Trin 15 November 2011 0.98 neutral to bullish bias
-50-dsma moving up *1204.18

SPX 500 Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-volume 11 November 2011 761.5_volume 15 November 2011 781.0

FTL-stocks Chart: chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-growth rate ----FTL(follow the leader/very strong) - 0-line test

the bearish bits:

-VIX Close *31.22 increasing to 31.22 above Pivot 30.16
-weak strength below C-RSI +5

...as a result, uptick strength suggests mild follow through lower to challenge weekly trendline support current *1233 - expectations are, *1233 will act as a near term floor to motivate another attempt to break above the 200-dsma current *1272.10 in the week ahead

-option expiry 17 November 2011-

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 16 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 sold off into the Close *1236.91 just above the lower 3-week wedge support *1233.62 - weekly trendline support slipped lower current *1226.15 and marks a tolerable intraday potential bounce off point - the market definitely needs to hold the index right there in the range to avoid follow through lower - violation of *1226.13 suggest weakness ahead with the next possible target the 1 November Pivot Low *1215_50-dsma current *1204.95

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX bounced off the *30.16 Pivot support closing squeezed just below the 50-dsma *34.02 - pushing a Close below the 50-dsma should put an end to bullish hopes for the 1 November Pivot Low *1215_50-dsma current *1204.95 to hold

SPX 500 volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...down volume tapering off with consecutive sell-downs suggesting a move towards exhaustion

USD-Index chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...USD-Index strength above the 50-dsma - oil up - positive economic news - SPX 500 down - looks like a SPX 500 shake out rather than a fake out

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 18 November 2011-

...the SPX 500 in the hot danger zone - something goes wrong, the index drops like a ton of lead...

FTL-stocks Chart:http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-last stop before oblivion - potential for growth rate ----FTL(follow the leader/very strong) to form inverted H&S pattern IF it bounces today - beat that

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10767491

Some counter trend news coming out about what americans are really up too ... Remember most don't read the financial news (or indeed know where Europe is) and just go about their daily business ...

Yep..but I bet those Americans will grizzle when interest rates & other tighter monetary controls kick in to control inflation when the economy finally takes off (probably rocket off).
Remember there is no correlation between Business cycles and Sharemarket cycles...Yes the sharemarket could take off, it all depends on investor group behaviour but it is wise to factor in possible sharemarket disappointment e.g as has happened with the miners when high metal prices failed to show up in the miner stock prices.

If profits fail to feed through to Share prices the classic lowering of Shiller's Annualised PE Ratio during a secular Bear Market when inflation starts to kick in scenario is to blame......also have you noticed the large increased profits these last 2 years seem to be plateauing out this year (3rd year)..another factor in the possible disappointment scenario.

The markets may indeed take off to higher highs and all of us will be benefactors of that rise (me included as I'll be buying on buy signals)..but if the market doesn't take off, the media and inexperienced investors and some fundies maybe scratching their heads and blame that the market is crazy...but I'll know why..it'll be that pesky secular bear at work.

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 21 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 5 August 2011 market opened the SPX 500 *1200.28 - bulls managed the (+18) High *1218.11 - the bears managed the (-32) Low *1168.09 - the index closed uncertain *1199.38 - for the next 45 days until 10 Ocotber 2011, the index traded below the 50-dsma but crossed *1175.92 - consequent price action took the index up to the 27 October High *1292. 66

...the 11 November 2011 market opened the SPX 500 *1216.19 - the bulls managed the (+7) High *1223.51 - the bears managed the (-5) Low *1211.36 - the index closed uncertain *1215.68

-Trin +1.38 bearish bias with higher down-volume but more advancing issues

momentum_10 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-momentum trailing below 3 month trendline support
-market strength C-RSI 30 close to 0-line
-institutions moved into low distribution
-Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutions, Foreign Liquidity Inflows moved into low contraction

...favorite seasonality supports expectations of higher prices ahead, but the market needs to hold the 50-dsma current *1206.78 and the 5 August 2011 Close *1200.28 - an accumulative Close above the weekly trendline support current *1223.94 would be the minimum show of strength to support expectations

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 22 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 extended the breakdown from the 3-week wedge in a deeper sell-off past the 18 October 2011 Low *1191.48 and challenged the 50% retrace of the 4 October 2011 to 27 October 2011 rally *1183 before turning up to close *1192.94 - above the 18 October 2011 Low *1191.48


VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-the VIX added just another 0.72 goosebumps to yesterday's Close *32 on the sell-down
-Trin: +2.68 close to ueber-bearish

...so far in the play, the bounce off the *1183/*1191 level provided the first stepping stone to support expectations of the SANTA rally into year end 2011 targeting weekly upper channel resistance current *1343 - however, as long as weekly trendline resistance current *1222.70 caps the upside, risks to extend down remain extremely high

Trade: buy current prices target: *1325 stop: *1175

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 23 November 2011-

...the SPX 500 violated the 50% retrace of the 4 October 2011 to 27 October 2011 rally *1183 with an intraday Low *1181.65 so far and price action appears weak - the soft price action suggests lower prices ahead as long as weekly trendline resistance current *1222.74 caps the upside - the next logical down target is the 10 October 2011 price/50-dsma Crossing *1175.92 - potential to stretch lower to challenge the 10 October 2011 Low *1158.15 before setting a near term bottom

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 23 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 violated the 50% retrace of the 4 October 2011 to 27 October 2011rally *1183 with an intraday Low *1181.65 - closing *1188.04 above the inflection point *1183 - the intraday break below *1183 suggests lower prices ahead as long as weekly trendline resistance current *1222.74 caps the upside - the next logical down target is the 10 October 2011 price/50-dsma Crossing *1175.92 - potential to stretch lower to challenge the 10 October 2011 Low *1158.15 before setting a near term bottom

...several developing positive divergences in the market internals suggest potential for price to form a near term bottom

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-positive volume divergence

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-lower VIX Close *32.19

FTL chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-positive divergence in the growth rate ----FTL(follow the leader/very strong)-stocks growing now faster than the strong stocks
-positive divergence in the amount of institutional selling versus NYA price action

Trade: buy current prices target: *1325 stop: *1175
Trade: buy Close *1200 (+) target: *1325 stop: *1183

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

A77 ... Could you explain how the FTL chart is derived? That's a completely new measure for me. Many thanks.

Hi Belgarion,

...this link will tell you what this is all about http://www.stocktiming.net/difference-between-traders/ http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 24 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 stretched lower past the 10 October 2011 price/50-dsma Crossing *1175.92 for a challenge of the 10 October 2011 Low *1158.15 (the 61.8% retrace of the 4 October 2011 to 27 October 2011 rally) - the index closed *1161.79

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-the positive volume divergence continues

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-the positive VIX divergence
-Trin: +4.46 at extreme bearish bias

...the market traded into short term oversold and could produce a bounce but the real test of the 61.8% retrace of the 4 October 2011 to 27 October 2011 rally) remains in the cards. A successful defense of the *1158 level should provide the building blocks for the long-awaited SANTA rally

Trade: buy current prices target: *1325 stop: *1175 stopped
Trade: buy Close *1211.46 (+) target: *1325 stop: *1183

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 25 November 2011-

...boredom re: financial news almost unbearable...anyway...

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 25 November 2011 market opened the SPX 500 *1161.61 - bulls managed the (+11) High *1172.66 - the bears managed the (-3) Low *1158.66 - the index closed in the day's low range *1158.67 -uncertainty reigns - weekend/hangover upticks uninspiring - the real test of the 61.8% retrace of the 4 October 2011 to 27 October 2011 rally) remains in the cards and a successful defense of the *1158 level should provide the building blocks for the long-awaited SANTA rally - however risks remain high the market will diddle around and loose the *1158 level to challenge a very strong support base *1136

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-the 25 November 2011 price action - expected very light flows

NYSE chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-NYSE - oversold -

SPX 500 Stocks positive/negative trending chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
- 93.4% SPX 500 stocks in negative Strength - oversold -

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
- the VIX closed higher - no wonder with USD strength but:

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
- strong USD 80 - resistance challenge ahead

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 28 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the market bull's moment of glory kicked the market up to an intraday High *1197.35 from an oversold position where even the Friday 25 November 2011 index put/call ratio showed an obvious positive divergence

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-volume accumulation compared to the 9 August 2011 and 4 October 2011 Lows -disappointing- so far

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-the VIX Close *32.13 remains above the minimum safety indication for sustainability *30.16

...as a result, the market needs to show its hand and trade the VIX below *30.16 as a minimum - additional safety markers required for sustainability:
-Close below *26
-Close below *24
to set up a lower Low - followed by a confirmation challenge *30.16

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader update -data point 30 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 29 November 2011 market:

-opened *1192.56
-bulls (+10) High *1202.67
-bears (-1) Low *1191.80
-index closed in day's low range *1195.19
-the market rejected an initial attempt to trade past the 50-dsma current *1205.51

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-volume accumulation compared to the 9 August 2011 and 4 October 2011 Lows -disappointing-

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-the VIX Close *30.64 remains above the minimum safety indication for sustainability *30.16

...as a result, although the index remained in positive territory adding a (+3) -extension to the 28 November 2011 up-move off *1158.67 - low volume so far and a VIX above the *30.16 safety level builds the up-move on shaky ground - high risks for failure remains below the weekly trendline resistance current *1214.18 that would motivate the market for a second test to confirm the 28 November 2011 up-move level *1158.67 - potential to reach lower to challenge the *1136 strong support hold - a successful challenge of the *1136 level should provide the building blocks for the continuation of the SANTA rally into year end 2011

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 1 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 surged past the 50-dsma as well as the weekly trendline resistance current *1213.15 (Wednesday 23 November 2011 - Trade: buy Close *1211.46 (+) target: *1325 stop: *1236) on

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
reasonable high volume accumulation that improved the underlying uncertainty caused by low volume accumulation during the up-move off the 28 November 2011 Low *1158.67 - the index is short term overbought but momentum could carry prices past upper wedge resistance current *1252.16 into the heavily fortified *1260 congestion (the 200-dsma current *1265.89 - potential for the market to push prices up as far as the 8 November 2011 High *1277.55 before exhaustion sets in

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-unfortunately, the VIX closed *27.80, unable to push below the program selling threshold *26.0

...as a result, this market appears to be the day traders version of nibbana, but a nightmare for investors seeking a sustainable longer term hold

Trade: sell *1263.00 (+) ideal target: *1220/*1230 congestion stop: *1287.00)

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 2 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 consolidated between *1239.73 and *1251.09 intraday moving quietly along above the 200-dsma hourly time frame - the Trin *0.77 remained with a bullish to neutral bias - Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutional Investors, and Foreign Liquidity Inflows and institutional buy_sell trending neutral to bullish bias - up-trend institutional selling trending at inflection point - C-RSI_30 remains negative

FTL chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
- growth rate ----FTL(follow the leader/very strong)-stocks higher than growth rate strong stocks - in positive territory 1 December 2011

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
- the VIX *27.4 moved marginally lower - unable to push below the program selling threshold *26.0

...as a result, trading momentum above the 200-dsma could carry prices past upper wedge resistance current *1252.16 into the heavily fortified *1260 congestion (the 200-dsma current *1265.43) - potential for the market to push prices up as far as the 8 November 2011 High *1277.55 before exhaustion sets in

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 5 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 extended slightly higher into the heavily fortified *1260 congestion (the 200-dsma current *1265.43) before selling settled the index into the *1244.28 Close (-2) off the 1246.03 Open

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...volume sell extended slightly higher

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX bounced off the 200-dsma current *25.34 to close *27.52 - unfortunately still above the *26.00 program selling threshold - on a positive note, the VIX intraday Low *25.29 penetraded the current 200-dsma level

...as a result, although the market trades in the strongest time frame of a year and a 7.39% weekly gain needs to account for a strong positive bias towards the end of the year - the selling on slightly higher volume combined with a VIX above *26.00 and a minus Open/Close result signals waning strength in the short term - below *1244, risks are high for the market to force the index into confirmation drive to challenge the 10 November 2011 Low *1227.70 - potential to extend lower for a challenge of the *1215 support - potential to extend lower for a 50-dsma confirmation challenge current *1210.26 - however, pull backs to above the 50-dsma provide favorable buying opportunities

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 6 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the market opened the SPX 500 strongly and pushed the trade right past the 200-dsma current *1264.52 to the intraday High *1266.73 - a nice bullish (+22) surprise before selling settled the index (+12) to close *1257.08 - (+22) gap up Open versus (-10) sell down Close - however, the index closed (-3) below yesterday's intraday High *1260.08

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-volume registered accumulation
-the *0.55 Trin signals extreme bullishness

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-unfortunately, a higher VIX Close *27.84 adds a bearish splash into the bullish painting
-institutional buy/sell trending and Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity_Institutional Investors_Foreign Liquidity Inflows remaining neutral - strength remains weak

...as a result, it is unlikely that instituitons would be major accumulators with the heavily fortified *1260 congestion/the 200-dsma current *1265.43/the 9 November 2011 High *1275.18 ahead unless the market offers cheaper incentives to accumulate - below *1247.11, risks are high for the market to force the index into confirmation drive to challenge the 10 November 2011 Low *1227.70 - potential to extend lower for a challenge of the *1215 support - potential to extend lower for a 50-dsma confirmation challenge current *1212.76 - however, pull backs to above the 50-dsma provide favorable buying opportunities

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 7 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the market trends up and the VIX trends up - No Thank You - portfolio protection remains in place until after a decent shake-out

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 12 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...8 December 2011 price action trapped the bears 5 points below the hourly 200-dsma -nice shake-out- respecting the daily 21-dsma current *1227.28 and the 50-dsma current *1219.85

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the Vix tested the *30.16 resistance but without having set a lower Low first below *24.44 - the rising 200-dsma sits currently *25.55

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...daily price action sits way overbought - high risk for any up-move to be met with a selling rout

Cot chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...small speculators are the main driver of this current rally

...as a result, short term up-side potential to meet the 8 November 2011 High *1277 as long as the index remains above the 21-dsma current *1227.28 and 50-dsma current *1219.85 - high risk however, trading a break-out above the 200-dsma in an extremely over extended daily market - despite Friday's bullish display (Trin *0.65), a repeat challenge of the 3 August 2011 Low *1234.55 cannot be ruled out - pull backs to above the 50-dsma provide favorable buying opportunities

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 13 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 extended its corrective shake-out to an intraday Low *1227.25 just a notch above the 21-dsma current *1227.18 and closed *1236.47 just above the 3 August 2011 Low *1234.56 - potential to extend lower to challenge the 50-dsma current *1221.95 - potential to extend lower to challenge the 5 August 2011 High *1218.11

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX closed lower *25.69 setting a positive divergence with a 200-dsma challenge current *25.57- pull backs to Closes above the 50-dsma provide favorable buying opportunities

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the USD-index remains a Red Flag to the market as well as continuous weakness in the Chinese market

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 14 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the market challenged the 5 August 2011 High *1218.11 with an intraday Low *1219.43 and settled the SPX 500 *1225.73 right on the the 21-dsma/50-dsma inflection point - luke warm support at best at inflection leaving the bears clear in the driver seat

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...volume registered distribution producing a very bearish Trin *1.79

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX closed lower building on the positive divergence moving clearly below the 200-dsma with an intraday Low *23.27 to close *25.41 -still above the *24.00 level-

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the DXYO added more shades of red taking out the 5 October 2011 High *79.87 heading up into the *81.00 Double Top level

...as a result, the developing positive VIX divergence signals expectations of higher prices ahead - the DXYO trade however shows equity markets the finger - unless, equity traders are confident enough the USD will never ever make it past *81.00 Double Top - pull backs to Closes above the 50-dsma provide favorable buying opportunities - Trade: buy *current levels Target: *1315 Stop: *1211.36 - a fully invested portfolio still in need for lower 20 - 50 (%) protection

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 15 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the market moved the SPX 500 past the 5 August 2011 High *1218.11 down to an intraday Low *1209.47 to settle *1211.82 - Trade: buy *current levels Target: *1315 Stop: *1211.36 remains 'on' - the 21-dsma current *1223.41 crossed below the 50-dsma current *1226.24 - volume registered distribution again - the bears keep the pressure on

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX spiked higher to *27.55 and closed above the program selling *26.00 threshold *26.04 - above the 200-dsma current *25.64

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...with *81.29, the DXYO took out the first 1 October 2011 *80.90 Top - technicals look constructive for further advances

SPX 500 derivative chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the index now trades very close to the daily 1-yr trendline support current *1202.71 with the 11 October 2011 Low *1187.30 providing next logical support

...as a result, all support points down to the 200-dsma failed to ignite accumulation including today's price action off the Low - price action naturally appears now to favor hugging the down-line instead of bothering reaching out towards the up-line - situation most likely remaining unchanged until strong accumulation at support signals first signs of change - a fully invested portfolio still in need for lower 20 - 50 (%) protection

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 15 December 2011-

FTL chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...growth rate ----FTL(follow the leader/very strong)-stocks - in negative territory with an uptick 14 December 2011 - a first positive sign of accumulation

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 16 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 15 December 2011 Low *1209.47 (just below the 50% retrace of the 28 November 2011/7 December 2011 advance) appears subject to a cautious recovery attempt - Trade: buy *current levels Target: *1315 Stop: *1211.36 remains 'on' - the 13/14 December 2011 bearish Trin leaves the market unsettled -she'll be allright mate -get the hell outta here- *1.00 neutral - 50 (%) protection for a fully invested portfolio - reducing at Closes above *1225.60

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 19 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 16 December 2011 buyers shifted the SPX 500 (+14.95) points up before sellers shifted the index (-11.43) down to a *1219.66 Close - the Trin *0.86 registered a bullish bias - trading happened on very light flows -

SPX 500 cot chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...cot shows market support of large specs in tune with small specs for the week ending 13 December 2011

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX has worked its way lower to a *24.29 Close - a (-0.24) lower than the 28 October 2011 *24.53 Close

FTL chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...despite the 14 December 2011 down day and apparent selling into the Close 15/16 December 2011, the growth rate ----FTL(follow the leader/very strong)-stocks continues to develop a positive divergence growing stronger than strong stocks

...as a result, price action supports higher prices above the SPX 500 15 December 2011 Low *1209.47 ( (just below the 50% retrace of the 28 November 2011/7 December 2011 advance) - 50 (%) protection for a fully invested portfolio - reducing at Closes above *1225.60

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 20 December 2011-

.SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
..in an extreme bearish down leg (Trin *2.84), the market sailed through the SPX 500 15 December 2011 Low *1209.47 marking an intraday Low *1202.37, below the 29 November 2011 High *1203.67 - the intraday violation of the 29 November 2011 High *1203.67 combined with a tepid support off the intraday Low *1202.37 signals weakness ahead - lower targets in the neighbourhood include the 30 November 2011 Low *1296.72, the 29 November 2011 Low *1291.80, the November 28 High *1297.35 - coinciding nicely with 3-mth trendline support current *1291.82

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX wedged in between *24.00 support and its 200-dsma resistance current *25.72 while the 21-dsma and the 50-dsma trending down - the 200-dsma at neutral inflection

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the DXYO consolidating below double top resistance *81.00

...as a result, above the 29 November 2011 congestion and 3-mth trendline support, the index remains on track for a third leg higher into the *1300 Psych barrier (+) - taking out the 19 December 2011 High *1224.57 is a minumum requirement to achieve - 50 (%) protection for a fully invested portfolio - reducing at Closes above *1225.60

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 21 December 2011-


SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...an ultra bullish (Trin: *0.2) trading day as a result of a surging market makes sense versus shorting following yesterday's ultra bearish display finishing close to strong support

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...VIX confirms down trend with lower Low *23.22 -below *23.27-

...as price action in correlation with short term upside momentum align ideally for higher prices, the market now can simply not afford to dislay signs of hesitation - traders have to keep the surge on short of some intraday weakness around the 10 points mark - since fully invested portfolio protection has been reduced above *1225.60, any hesitation above the tolerable 10 points level will have to be met with uncompromising protective measures back to the 50% protection initially

Kind Regards

[winner69]

VIX is sub 25. Even more good news!


..... but that means (implies) that the US markets are likely to go up only 7% in the next 30 days .... I would have thought you were more bullish than this Belg ..... or is it good news because the market might only go down 7% instead of collapsing big time

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 5 January 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 3 January 2012 market pushed past the 27 December 2011 High *1269.37 in an apparent show of strength, but sold off the 31 November 2011 High *1284.69 without setting even a marginal new High - the 27 December 2011 VIX closed the *1269.37 High *21.91 - furthermore, the 3 January 2012 VIX closed the day's High *1284.62 *22.22, red-flagging a market heading higher with a VIX heading higher - in perspective, a VIX Close below the bullish *19.83 level would be needed to set the market at ease with a bullish outlook - in the meantime, caution trading this market is advisable

...nevertheless, despite the obvious bullish/bearish indecisiveness in the market, the surge past the 27 December 2011 High *1269.37 opens up further upside potential to challenge 2-yr trendline resistance current *1290.25 en route to the 27 October 2011 Peak *1292.66 in the neighbourhood - past *1292.66, the view opens up into the *1300 Psych barrier, making out *1356.70 in the distance

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 6 January 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 5 January 2012 market again challenged the *1260 support with a successful defense of the 30 December 2012 High *1264.12 - the bounce off the intraday Low *1265.26 featured a higher Close on higher volume, but unfortunately, that's how much the bullish lot were giving away

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 5 January 2012 *21.48 VIX closes below the 27 December 2011 *21.91 VIX - above the bullish *19.83 level, the bullish/bearish indecisiveness remains a concern in the market

...further upside potential remains to challenge 2-yr trendline resistance current *1290.84 en route to the 27 October 2011 Peak *1292.66 in the neighbourhood - past *1292.66, the view opens up into the *1300 Psych barrier, making out *1356.83 in the distance - at this stage, a Close below the 27 December 2011 High *1269.37justifies an increase to 75% protection of a fully invested portfolio

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 9 January 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 market remains wedged undecided between the 3 January 2011 High *1284.62 and the 27 December 2011 High *1269.37 heading towards resolution

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 6 January 2012 VIX closed *20.63 SPX 500 positive divergent but remains above the bullish *19.83

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the DXYO broke double top resistance with a new intraday High *81.60 - 21-dsma_50-dsma -200-dsma moving up

...upside potential remains to challenge 2-yr trendline resistance current *1290.92 en route to the 27 October 2011 Peak *1292.66 in the neighbourhood - past *1292.66, the view opens up into the *1300 Psych barrier, making out *1356.94 in the distance - at this stage, a violation of the 27 December 2011 High *1269.37 signals weakness and justifies an increase to 75% protection of a fully invested portfolio

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 13 January 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 trading at 3-mth Highs closing *1295.50 setting another intraday High *1296.82 - caution dominates trading below the *1300 Psych barrier and strong overhead resistance ranging up to the 28 July 2011 High *1316.32

Market Internals chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...short term intra-day liquidity flows - short term institutional shift of direction - new Highs market internals as well as a bearish biased Trin today *1.17 display negative divergences

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX still fails to close into the bullish inspired *19.63 level

FTL chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...both the strong stocks and FTL(follow the leader/very strong)-stocks below zero in negative territory and below support

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the DXYO rally off the 27 October 2011 Low *74.86 remains supported *80.55 trendline support

...upside potential into the *1300 Psych barrier and strong overhead resistance ranging up to the 28 July 2011 High *1316.32 remains above the 28 October 2011 High *1287.08 - however, ahead of OpEx and due to multiple negative divergences, risk of a bearish strike are increasing - as a result, 75% fully invested portfolio protection in place *1301

Kind Regards

[winner69]

20 day MA cross with 200 day MA today ...

Thats good news isn't it Belg

Last time it happened market +43%

Previous 2 times before that +20% odd

It's all on now eh

S&P plus 20% from here abiut 1500 and that would complete a nice W formation on the chart .... what after that?

[Hoop]

All the media drama in Europe last year you would think that there would be better Countries in the world than the European countries....eh
So who are the most stable and credit worthy countries left sofar in the world after the 2008 GFC and the 2011 Euro crisis.
Well France has just lost its triple A rating and Austria may also lose it.downgrade one notch is no big deal. USA seems a lot better after its AAA loss.
Well there is 15 left in the AAA club 14 probably after today....

.....So does it come as a surprise to you that 10 of the 14 AAA countries left in the world are situated in Europe,

The S&P Triple-A Rated Countriy Club List:


Switzerland
AAA


Sweden
AAA


Singapore
AAA


Liechtenstein
AAA


Luxembourg
AAA


Netherlands
AAA


Norway
AAA


Canada
AAA


Australia
AAA


Austria
AAA(going)



France
AAA(gone)



Finland
AAA


Denmark
AAA


Germany
AAA


Hong Kong
AAA


United Kingdom
AAA

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data pint 18 January 2911-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 pushed into the *1300 Psych barrier_strong overhead resistance ranging up to the 28 July 2011 High *1316.32 'Red Zone' with an intraday High *1303 - failing the 29 July 2011 High *1304.16 into the *1293.67 Close

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...short term intra-day liquidity flows - short term institutional shift of direction - new Highs market internals as well as a bearish Trin today *1.43 remain as negative divergences

FTL chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...strong stocks and FTL(follow the leader/very strong)-stocks below zero in negative territory and below support

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX continuous to fail the bullish inspired *19.63 level

DXYO chart:http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
..the DXYO rally off the 27 October 2011 Low *74.86 remains supported *80.55 trendline support

...the bull/bear face-off remains in full swing with Closes below the *1300 Psych level - as a result, 75% fully invested portfolio protection in place *1301

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 19 January 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the bulls in the SPX 500 market, in a serious attempt to win the on-going bull/bear face-off, settled above the *1300 Psych barrier with a *1308.04 Close for the first time in several month. Leaving the 1 August 2011 High *1307.38 and the 29 July 2011 High *1304.16 behind, the immediate attraction higher features the 27 July 2011 High *1316.32 in the strong overhead resistance 'Red Zone'. The Trin *0.55 of the day shows a clear bullish win

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX however, keeps telling a cautious story. Although the 18 January 2012 VIX closed lower *20.89 then the 17 January VIX market, it settled for a higher Low *20.78 and keeps the short term up-trend alive

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...a stocktimimg.com VIX study again highlights a potentially dangerous market condition, featuring a sideways breakout in a descending wedge formation

...although money appears to keep pouring into the market that pushes the market higher, the negative divergence in the VIX tells a story of catious ongoing hedging positions for a substantial fall ahead - as a result, 75% fully invested portfolio protection in place *1301

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Good sign. A77 is being cautions when the bulls have taken charge.


Buy shares in Helicopter manfactures! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-latest-easing-could-cost-192319782.html;_ylt=AgGk_tQdumf.bvOgn7R6aLKiuYdG;_ ylu=X3oDMTQzcTNiNHIwBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIEp1bWJvdH JvbiBMaXRlBHBrZwNlMGZiODZhMS1hNGRiLTNjZDYtYTBmYi05 MTA4Y2M1NGJkNzAEcG9zAzEEc2VjA2p1bWJvdHJvbgR2ZXIDNm UzMGE1NDAtNDJkMy0xMWUxLWJiY2ItOGEwYjI1MTA3NDNh;_yl g=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3Rh aWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv= 3

...yes Belgarion, buy high and sell higher is not one of my strategies - in the end am better off starting to lock in profits

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 20 Jnauary 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the bulls in the SPX 500 market traded the index higher into the *1314.50 Close setting an intraday High *1315.49 just short of the 27 July 2011 High *1316.32 - the daily Trin *0.86 stayed with a bullish bias - volume accumulation sightly higher - the bulls now appear to be serious to challenge the 27 July 2011 High *1331.91 with the 21 July 2011 Low *1325.65 a stepping stone in between

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX ventured into bullish territory below *19.63 with an intraday Low *19.45, but still closed *19.87

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the DXYO shows some weakness trading below the 4 October 2011 High *80.43 with a Close *80.41 and an inraday violation *80.21, indicating potential bullish implications for the equity markets

Put/Call Ratio and SPX 500 v. VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com


...while Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutional Investors, and Foreign Liquidity Inflows are strong, the market is trading into overbought territory - the actual count of very strong stocks current *183 is close to peak levels *188 of the 27 October 2011 Hig h *1292.66 - as a result, 75% fully invested portfolio protection in place *1301 until the bullish advance is confirmed with an expected shake-out into the *1295 support level as a minimum

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Belgarion:

Thanks, am hope find the time always to do and be just that

Kind Regards

[winner69]

This chart suggests the S&P should be higher than it is ..... just needs a PE expansion of a few points

US business is on fire

[Hoop]

Belg...bad news :( ...MA200/50 crosses (golden cross death cross) are unreliable when the index crabs sideways.
Winner...bad news :(...the S&P 500 earnings are at record levels and deemed by the market not to go higher but to ease down from now on...so the market has factored in this unsubstainable rise.

Hey guys ...just to prove I'm not a permabear

Good news :t_up:..On the 3 January the DOW Ind and Transport confirmed each others primary trend break In DOW Theory this signals a return to a cyclic bull market cycle. I was rather skeptical about this cycle switch with all the crap going on around the world. (this DOW Theory market cycle assessment has got about a 16% failure rate)
Better Good news :t_up:...S&P500 has confirmed the DOWs with its own Primary trend break at the end of last week so it to is now back in a Bull market cycle

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 24 January 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 continues on its path to fresh multi-month Highs with a 23 January 2012 High *1322.28 - new advances however appear laboured and lead-footed as market internals remain high in overbought territory - today's Trin showed a very tame bullish *0.91

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX indeed chopped all the way down to a new Low *18.28 definitely below the bullish inspired *19.63 level, but real bullish rips are non-excistent - the strong stocks and FTL(follow the leader/very strong)-stocks remain stubbornly below zero in negative territory and below support, while the very weak stocks are trending up

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the DXYO bounced off its 50-dsma - mildly-

Market Internals chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the New Highs index remains negative divergent - short term money flows at extreme levels - institutional shift of direction remains negative divergent - institutional selling starting to develop a positive divergent to the NYA-index

...as a result, 75% fully invested portfolio protection in place *1301

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 26 January 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 index advanced further leaving the 19 to 24 January 2012 congestion High *1322.28 behind - ticking along steady, adding another multi-month High *1328.30, just shy of the 27 July 2011 High *1331.91 - the immediate attraction is to take the 27 July 2011 High *1331.91 out to challenge the 26 July 2011 High *1338.51

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX Close *18.31 stayed below the bullish *19.63 level

CMC SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the index continues to trade deeper into overbought territory with risk of a bearish strike increasing - as a result, 75% capital protection *1301 in place

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -Data point 27 January 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 26 January 2012 SPX 500 took out the 27 July 2011 High *1331.91and nibbled higher into the 26 July 2012 market with a *1333.47 High - harsh rejection (Trin: *1.91) pushed the index back for a first test of the 19 to 24 January 2012 congestion *1315 support - the intraday Low *1313.60 as well as a Close below trendline current *1320 support drawn off the 29 December 2012 Open *1249.75 increase risks for further weakness ahead - immediate attraction to the downside is the 19 to 24 January 2012 congestion including the *1306.06 Low

Liquidity Inflows chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...so far, huge Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutional Investors, and Foreign Liquidity Inflows kept pushing the market -deeper into overbought

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...although the VIX setting new Lows, trading remains rangebound within the developing declining wedge pattern - there is a 90% chance of an upside break-out - the 23 January 2012 marks the start of the break-out window with increasing risk of the event occuring at any time

...as a result, 75% capital protection *1301 in place

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 1 February 2012

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 continues to consolidate below the recent 26 January 2012 *1333.47 High - downside price action off *1333.47 remains considered but a string of lower Closes and a bearish bias in the market suggests a continuation into a corrective drive

CMC Markets SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...daily price rolls over gently pointing down to the 27 October 2011 High *1292.66 support and with todays Trin: *1.38 leaves the bears in charge

NYSE D_Vol/Institutional Selling chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the NYSE dvol ticks up above resistance while an institutional selling uptrend redflags the current market

FTL chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
stocktiming.com: ...strong stocks and FTL(follow the leader/very strong)-stocks so far dropped 69.3% off the 19 January High *228 - suggests Mutuals, Hedges, Institutions won't keep buying at higher prices when the underlying stocks are not increasing their sales and profits at the same rate - combined with a stop in inlowing liquidity sets the market at high risk of a precipitous drop

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX remains trading within the descending wedge

...as a result, portfolio protection remains set *75% in a market trading below the 23 January 2012 High *1322.28 on a Close basis

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 2 February 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 traded passed the 23 January 2012 High *1322.28 in an attempt to turn the tide towards fresh Highs above the 26 January 2012 High *1333.47 - now needs to take out the 25 January 2012 High *1328.30 to keep upside pressure on

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX remains trading within the descending wedge and getting more squezzed heading towards the 8 February 2012

...although higher prizes are possible with the 26 July 2011 High *1338.51 and the 25 July 2011 High *1344.32 in the near vicinity, the overbought condition in the longer time frames are worsening and warrant a continuos cautious approach to more upside - as a result, portfolio protection remains set *75%, increasing in 5 point steps with new higher Highs

Kind Regards

[winner69]

Market liked the jobs data .... this guy says what a load of crock ..... "......there is something very, very suspicious about today’s BLS hugely positive number," adding, "Actual jobs, not seasonally adjusted, are down 2.9 million over the past two months. It is only after seasonal adjustments – made at the sole discretion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics economists – that 2.9 million fewer jobs gets translated into 446,000 new seasonally adjusted jobs."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/trimtabs-explains-why-todays-very-very-suspicious-nfp-number-really-down-29-million-past-2-mont


Never mind ..... we have a golden cross

[winner69]

Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!!




... (Yawn ... if you're not well in already you've missed the fun ... :) )

What time frames you using Belg?

[winner69]

and a bit on google

Composite Indicator: Since 1950, there have been 27 years (including 2012) where all three above indicators were positive. Full year gains followed 92.3% of the time

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 6 February 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...in one big sweep (Trin: *0.58), the market took out the 25 January 2012 High *1328.30 and the 26 January 2012 High *1333.47 and closed higher *1344.90, above the 25 July 2011 High *1344.32 - the intraday High *1345.34 penetrades the 31 May/1 June 2011 High *1345.20 - suggests dermination to challenge the *1350/*1360 level into the 2 May 2011 TOP *1370.58 level

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX trade closed *17.10 outside of the descending wedge with bullish implications - as long as it does not jump back to set a bearish tone into the market

COT chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...and the small investor drives the market stampede up to the 31 January 2011 - nice - 80% portfolio protection in place

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 7 February 2012-

Richard Russell: "If you listen carefully, you can hear the heart-beat of the market. It’s a slow, heavy beat, as if the market is waiting for something. That something is going to be BIG. Bigger than what anyone is expecting"
http://pragcap.com/richard-russell-2012s-market-moving-event-will-be-an-iranisrael-war

Liquidity chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...Friday showed another increase in Liquidity while in high inflow territory

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX closed firmly inside the descending wedge keeping bearish undertones alive

stocktiming.com: the Institutional Index 'Core' holdings negatively divergent with the rest of the markets - concerns are that the amount of inflowing Lliquidity has not lifted all the boats in the water in the same manner by this sea of money - Institutional Investors are disturbed, it is "not their liquidity" driving the market and their stocks are not moving at the same pace when they should

...as a result, 80% portfolio protection in place

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 8 February 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 7 February 2012 SPX 500 market pushed higher passed the 21 July 2011 High *1347.00 to close *1347.05 after setting an intraday High *1349.24 - with selling almost non-existent at the intraday High, the immediate attraction is to push higher passed the *1350/*1360 level into the 2 May 2011 *1370.58 Top - although selling at the intraday High was almost non-existent, the Trin: *1.38 tells of careful selling into strength

...charts for thought:
PUT/CALL chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
VIX_SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
Stocks >50-dma chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...higher prizes can not be ruled out -nice- 80% portfolio protection in place increasing to 85% in the *1350/*1360 level

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 10 February 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 9 February 2012 SPX 500 market traded to an intraday High *1354.32 just shy of the 7 July 2011 High *1356.48 - selling at the Highs remains tame - and the index closed strong near the intraday High - further up the price ladder leading to the 2 May 2011 *1370.58 Top are the 7 July 2011 High *1356.48 and the 10 May 2011 High *1359.44 sitting as attractive, immediate targets to be tackled

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...a positive VIX divergence on display for the last 4 trading days - its apex occurs within the next 8 trading days, but a breakout could happen anytime during the period

...higher prizes can not be ruled out as long as price action remains above the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52, but closing below the 9 February 2012 Low *1344.63 suggests high risk of lower prices ahead - 85% portfolio protection in place

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Top of Head Stuff:

...SPX 500 tested *1337 and closed below the 9 February 2012 Low *1344.63 - the VIX testing its 50-dsm and closed bearish *20.79 outside the descending wedge -on a line chart, the first outside Close would be above *19.60-
...as a result, the market may rally once more to test the latest High (the index is heavily overbought in the long term time frame, but has room to move up on the daily) - however, risks are now very high, a corrective draw down has started already - 85% portfolio protection in place

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 15 February 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 14 Fenruary 2012 SPX 500 market continues its sideways trade below the 9 February 2012 High *1354.32 closing above 9 February 2012 Low *1344.63 - staying well clear of the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52 - downside price action above 9 February 2012 Low *1344.63_the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52 failed so far to inflict any real damage to the bullish market bias - continuous liquidity inflows near the present congestion Lows has so far prevented the onset of a selling stampede

VIX charts: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX trade briefly jolted above resistance and keeps skidding along above it but real damage so far appears to be under liquidity control unless a more serious challenge to the bullish bias arises

...a Close above the bearish inspired *23.44 level could act as the more serious challenge to the grip of a constant inflow of liquidity - below the *23.44 ceiling, a possible sideways VIX action would be unable to overcome the bullish bias in the market for some 'New Highs' to come yet

...nevertheless, the markets remain heavily overbought in the long term time frame - risks remain very high, a corrective draw down has started already or will become more meaningful in the near future - 85% portfolio protection in place

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

A77, that overbought condition may last for quite a while as many unwind longer bond positions ... I don't see this indicator in a negitive light at this time (or for quite q few months to come for that matter).

...agree, Belgarion could go on for a while longer as the market is in its third leg up counting from the 31 March 2009 - the longest leg - driven by the public investor - so far the market happy with little sell-offs which are actually easy to trade - a big temporary sell-off however is due

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 16 February 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 15 February 2012 SPX 500 set a new intraday congestion High *1355.87, just a fraction below the 7 July 2011 Top *1356.48 - this time round, the sell-off following the Intra High had a more vicious tone to it, but in the end, the bullish bias remains intact above the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52 key level - despite the roll over in the daily, the hourly market now extremely oversold and some consolidation of todays losses can be expected

VIX charts: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX penetraded the 50-dsma current *21.64 with an Intraday High *21.77, but settled well clear of the bearish inspired *23.44 level

...despite expecting a very volatile challenge around the *1337 key support, for now, portfolio protection reduced to 50% *1337.87 above the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52_below the bearish inspired *23.44 key level

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 17 February 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the bulls clearly dominated the 16 February 2012 market setting a new 2012 intraday High *1359.02 - unfortunately unable to drive the stake through the 3 May 2011 Top *1359.84, the index dangles precariously below the *1360 mark - denting the bullish show of strength alongside the Dow_Nasdaq companion markets which failed to surpass yesterday's intra Highs -

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX story keeps repeating the bullish mantra unable to close on top of the 50-dsma current *21.47_the bearish inspired *23.44

...the markets remain heavily overbought in the long term time frame - risks remain very high an interim Top is building - portfolio protection increased to 85% *1359

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 21 February 2011-

COT chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...to the 14 February 2012, the dominant driver remains the public investor - larger speculators selling into strength in tune with the public investor driving up prices - reducing their selling when enthusiasm for higher prices is falling

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 left its congestion range with a new 17 February 2012 High *1363.40 above the 15 February 2012 *1355.87 congestion High - heading higher towards the 2 May 2012 Top *1370.58 - price action successfully tested the *1337.00 support level and consequently setting a new bullish inspired *1351_*1355 support range

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...for the VIX trade, a trading range below the *23.44 resistance and above the *18.00 support would be supportive of higher prices

......the markets remain heavily overbought in the long term time frame - risks remain very high an interim Top is building - portfolio protection remains at 85%

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 22 February 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 21 February 2012 SPX 500 market had a first unsuccessful meeting with the 5 May 2011 Top *1370.58 with an intraday High *1367.76 before selling knocked the index back - however, selling did no damage to the bullish trade with an intraday Low *1358.11 - comfortably above the new bullish inspired *1351_*1355 support range

Institutional Selling chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...instituional selling trending up to sideways since January

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...with inflowing liquidity remaining high, the VIX trade appears to move sideways supporting upward price pressure

...the markets remain heavily overbought in the long term time frame - risks remain very high an interim Top is building - portfolio protection remains at 85%

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 23 February 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 22 February 2012 SPX 500 market delivered more downside but still closed above the bullish inspired *1351_*1355 support range
- the trade appears to drive the index up in a step up consolidation mode, delivering excellent trading opportunities in the hourly short term frame oscillating from extreme overbought to extreme oversold - today's violation of 15 February 2012 High *1355.83 with an intraday Low *1355.23 however introduces some weakness to the bullish set-up that could invite more downside to challenge the 10 February 2012 High *1351.21
- trading down to the 10 February 2012 High *1351.21 or lower intraday would deliver a strong enough oversold condition in the hourly to motivate the market into a push past the 5 May 2011 Top *1370.58
- a Close below the 10 February 2012 High *1351.21 with the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52 as an initial target would be a serious attempt to wear off the extreme overbought condition in the weekly frame

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX currently stuck close to the *18.00 support confirms the continuation of the bullish market bias even during down days

...whatever, in terms of risk, the markets remain extremely overbought in the longer term frame with high risks of a sudden drop in liquidity inflows - portfolio protection at 90%

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Ananda quote..."...whatever, in terms of risk, the markets remain extremely overbought in the longer term frame with high risks of a sudden drop in liquidity inflows - portfolio protection at 90%..."

I agree...S&P 500 closed on it's 1363 resistance line. Risk v Reward shows far too much risk. Chart formation rising wedge is bearish. Most commentators/investors are too bullish and too complacent (low VIX 16.8).....that indicates most are already "in the market" reducing the amount of future buyers in the short term future (bearish).


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP50024022012.png

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 24 February 2012-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 23 February 2012 SPX 500 market followed the hourly script with a successful test in the low level of the bullish inspired *1351_*1355 support range, rallying off an intraday Low *1352.28. The bullish rally took out the 22 February 2012 *1362.70 on the way and motored passed the 17 February High *1363.40 as well to a strong Close *1363.46
-in the short term hourly trade system, price barely pulled out of oversold with an eleven point lift making it unlikely, the bears will see a lot of honey in a down strike at this point. The immediate attraction for the market is rather to take out the 21 February 2012 High *1367.76 and drive the index past the 5 May 2011 Top *1370.58 into the *1400 Psych barrier

VIX Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the bullish VIX trade supports the go for a higher high before market enthusiasm for higher highs exhausts itself. However, the apparent bullish day also carried a very neutral = slightly bearish Trin *1.04 mark

...the SPX 500 market continues to deliver excellent intraday trading opportunities but remains extremely overbought with no respite in sight in the longer term frame
- high risks of a sudden drop in liquidity inflows remain - portfolio protection at 90%

Kind Regards