Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[peat]

Hi Peat
Is your chart on NZ time?:)


yes it was 10 min candles but not clearly showing the smaller time periods , apologies.
i note the resistance level held overnight and was touched again a few more times
Shown here on the hourly where you will see I have taken a cheeky little short and have now moved stop loss on that to break even -will probably get taken out , no matter.

[Hoop]

.......
Shown here on the hourly where you will see I have taken a cheeky little short and have now moved stop loss on that to break even -will probably get taken out , no matter.

S&P500 ended the day on its support line at 1782 down 21 (-1.14%) Hows that cheeky little short now Peat? :D

[peat]

Hows that cheeky little short now Peat? :D
Worked out well yeh.
Not going to hang onto it though.... There's still 85B a month pouring in to fight against.

[peat]

it would appear the market is pleased with the Fed's statements, i.e it recognises that the easing of the quantitative easing amounts to nothing - OR of course they agree with the Fed that the economy is improving.
Your choice which of these is the driver ;+)

[ananda77]

...the dovish words about keeping I-rates at near-zero levels for quite some time

...agree - but 'quite some time' is playing Musical Chairs as the bond bull market is over. Wonder to what level bank balance sheets are still polluted with toxic waste as QE will keep going until the sheets are washed clean. 2014/2015 at the longest...

Kind Regards

[winner69]

Fascinating chart below - the S&P500 deflated for the impact of QE

From a good piece here http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/that-was-the-weak-that-worked-part-i

Excerpt -

Nice and reliable. Consistent amounts of "liquidity" are pumped into the system every month, and things gently float ever higher. The only real hiccup for equities in all of 2013 was, in fact, the Taper Tantrum in May, when this stability was briefly threatened.

Doesn't bode well, I'm afraid.

The chart below, deflating the S&P 500 by the ongoing QE experiment, which I included a few weeks ago courtesy of Raoul Pal & Remi Tetot of Global Macro Investor, strips away the effect of the Fed's pumping and lays bare the market's real performance. It's one of the best charts I've seen this year, and it speaks volumes

[MAC]

That is quite interesting Winner, although sometimes this sort of analysis can seem a little academic;

Perhaps without QE we would have had very low PE levels for 5 or 6 years, ...., isn't that a TA's criteria for the start of a secular bull market ?

[Hoop]

That is quite interesting Winner, although sometimes this sort of analysis can seem a little academic;

Perhaps without QE we would have had very low PE levels for 5 or 6 years, ...., isn't that a TA's criteria for the start of a secular bull market ?

My quote from other thread...Cyclic bears kill Secular bears...

Re: QE puts the secular bear into hiberation ?...., Will this action lengthen this cycle's undetermined time frame for that eventual reversal to a secular bull market cycle or will it alter the shape of the cycle itself with a catch-up "self correcting" mean reversion? or a bit of each.........Perhaps, in the future, QE may be seen as that sacrifice the Equity Markets had to endure (2015-2020) to prevent that destructive 2008-2009 crash followed by years of Depression happening.

Ben has been fighting a huge financial war with all weapons blazing including a new super weapon ..a depression annihilator...Its seems Ben may have won..... or has he???

Quote from the other Ben :(...Wars are not paid for during wartime, the bill comes later....Benjamin Franklin

Edit:..ohhh by the way Mac...I apologise in advance as I'm splitting hairs here....I think the Secular Cycle discipline has more to do with FA than TA

[ananda77]

http://i43.tinypic.com/24myh42.png
The Dow annual chart since 1998: expanding wedge with price topping *15588.25 above resistance at end of 2013 - Ever since 1998, price started to correct in a multi year fashion after hitting resistance. So far, 2014 started below the 2013 Close and the market would be in for a multi year correction as usual
- If 'as usual' turns out correct, the 50% retrace *14967.27 is taken out convincingly, while massive support at this level will indicate the 'Super Bull' comes into full swing, turning the multi year upper resistance into the new support

One thing is for sure. The Fed since 2008 continued to support the banking sector by following its favourite philosophy of inflating assets prices to expand the mortgage loan market, corporate takeover loans and speculative “casino capitalist” loans for foreign-currency and interest-rate arbitrage as priority No.1

Less priority and highly conditional and still to be achieved, the Fed commits to its dual mandate of price stability and full employment via priority No.1 and the 'debt trickle down' effect.

As a consequence, the bull market will continue and move into the 'Super Bull' but a convincing break below Dow *14967.27 will turn the 'blue sky' expectations upside down

Kind Regards and a Successful 2014

[ananda77]

http://i43.tinypic.com/24myh42.png
The Dow annual chart since 1998: expanding wedge with price topping *15588.25 above resistance at end of 2013 - Ever since 1998, price started to correct in a multi year fashion after hitting resistance. So far, 2014 started below the 2013 Close and the market would be in for a multi year correction as usual
- If 'as usual' turns out correct, the 50% retrace *14967.27 is taken out convincingly, while massive support at this level will indicate the 'Super Bull' comes into full swing, turning the multi year upper resistance into the new support

One thing is for sure. The Fed since 2008 continued to support the banking sector by following its favourite philosophy of inflating assets prices to expand the mortgage loan market, corporate takeover loans and speculative “casino capitalist” loans for foreign-currency and interest-rate arbitrage as priority No.1

Less priority and highly conditional and still to be achieved, the Fed commits to its dual mandate of price stability and full employment via priority No.1 and the 'debt trickle down' effect.

As a consequence, the bull market will continue and move into the 'Super Bull' but a convincing break below Dow *14967.27 will turn the 'blue sky' expectations upside down

Kind Regards and a Successful 2014

Note: the Fed's push to re-inflate the bubble economy drives the markets and according to Reuters: "Yellen and current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke have stressed the economic recovery has a long way to go, and that the Fed is committed to stimulus as long as needed. Yellen, who is expected to win Senate backing for the chairmanship on Monday, first mentioned an optimal control policy path in June, 2012."

[Hoop]

Noticing with one of my sediment indicators (NYA200r) which measures the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200day moving average...it has been diverging for 6 months now.
I'm not sure what this indicates for the future.... this divergence is obviously bearish.. if the NYA200r down trend continues the S&P500 index rises will be reliant on decreasing number of stocks, that situation is not sustainable in the longer term.
There is of course always that scenario the NYA200r will do a trend reversal.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50003012014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50003012014.png.html)

[winner69]

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/1/20/economy/inconvenient-truth-about-us-earnings-season

The inconvenient truth about this US earnings season


John Authers – FT

20 Jan, 3:02 PM
5
Economics and Investment Strategy
Economy
Economy
Global News
US Economy


















FT.com

The annual moment of truth is at hand. American companies have embarked on publishing their figures for the complete year of 2013. These numbers tend to be more tightly audited than the quarterly updates that come during the year, so this earnings season arguably revolves more around the realities of life in the corporate sector, rather than a game between chief financial officers and their investors.

This year, we should maybe brace for a moment of particularly inconvenient truth, after a year in which the US stock market has rallied by about a third, almost entirely on higher multiples. Forward earnings multiples for the S&P 500, based on consensus 2014 forecasts, are about 16 – well above the historical average, and above the pre-crisis peak in 2007 – suggesting that investors are braced for a significant boost in profits.

The macro arguments for such a stance are respectable. The US economy may well be on the verge of a strong recovery, as it emerges from the fiscal drag caused by last year’s government spending cuts.

But there are different ways to tally earnings across the corporate sector. They can be aggregated on an 'as reported' basis, including all exceptional items; they can be collated on an operating or pro forma basis; or some judgment can be used on which exceptional items are relevant. Any of these versions might be useful. But differences between them can radically skew perceptions.

For example, the S&P 500 takes a strict view, including almost all charges that appear in the official data. This means companies appear to earn less than on other measures, so that their shares look more expensive.

But the version of earnings used in the most widely followed earnings estimates might be too generous. According to Thomson Reuters, corporate earnings in 2013 are on course to increase by 5.7 per cent compared with 2012. This includes earnings for the first three quarters, plus the current expectation that fourth-quarter profits will be up 7.0 per cent.

But Andrew Lapthorne, the indefatigably contrarian quantitative equity strategist at Société Générale, points out that the picture is different if we use the earnings data provided by MSCI indices. MSCI makes a judgment call in its numbers, accepting earnings as reported but giving itself the right to exclude “unusual gains or losses that do not reflect the earnings potential of the company going forward” - such as sales of discontinued operations, restructuring charges, bankruptcy charges or changes in accounting policy.

The difference between these approaches grew clear during the extreme conditions of the profit fall in 2009 that followed the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. According to Lapthorne, S&P core earnings fell 92 per cent, MSCI earnings dropped 55 per cent – and earnings as used by Thomson Reuters fell 36 per cent. For 2013, MSCI earnings growth is barely above zero. On an earnings before interest and tax basis, excluding the effect of depreciation, Lapthorne finds that US profits have indeed been flat for two years now. So the 'growth' achieved over the past year appears to be the product of accounting manoeuvres and little else.

Meanwhile, companies are talking down their prospects. They always do this before results season, to give themselves a better chance of beating expectations. But the fourth quarter tends to be the time for broader discussions with shareholders. And in any case, the scale of talking down over the past few weeks is unprecedented.

According to Thomson Reuters, 113 companies have so far given the market warning that their results will be lower than expected, against only 14 positive guidances. This ratio of negative pre-announcements is the highest on record.

And while the earnings season is young, companies so far are finding it harder than usual to meet the low expectations they have set for themselves. Only 49 per cent of the 45 companies to report so far have beaten their forecasts, compared with a long-term average of 66 per cent.

Meanwhile, estimated year-on-year revenue growth for the fourth quarter, on Thomson Reuters data, is 0.5 per cent.

Lapthorne crunches balance sheets to draw more bearish conclusions. When measured as a share of sales, capex is nearly 7 per cent, well above average for the last two decades. Meanwhile, US cash piles look less impressive when viewed in the context of companies’ debt. Net debt (debt minus cash) has risen 15 per cent since the crisis. That debt has largely gone towards buying back shares, a move that directly raises earnings per share.

None of this is necessarily that alarming as the companies and the economy try to gain traction in the difficult years following an epic financial crisis. But this take on earnings makes 2013’s remarkable expansion in earnings multiples look ever more hopeful – and ever more unnerving. Is a moment of truth at hand?

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2014.

[winner69]

Bit of bummer day today

At least 1800 looks like holding

[winner69]

Emerging market concerns seem the common reason given for the sell

Turkey currency sell off / Argetina nearly broke again etc etc

[winner69]

I hadn't bothered watch CNBC for ages but had a squiz today and what a circus. I sense panic and fear

Omg - the man said the VIX has just spiked ...biggest spike for ages

But the message must have come from above ....the cheerleaders saying a great buying opportunity .....BUY BUY BUY

and those powers to be must be panicking .....the cheerleaders are going to have a panel discussion about why the Fed needs to UNTAPER. Good one

Probably wont bother look at ths channel for a while, esp as Maria has moved to Fox. That Maria is something else

Omg - they just flashed up a grid of the DOW stocks (I think) and its all red except for 2 squares

[winner69]

The guy just said you can't expect the market to go up every day ......so no worries

I sense a slight recovery as the da comes to a close

[winner69]

It gets better .... forget UNTAPERING the cheerleaders are now calling for even greater Fed stimulus than before

And the VIX is still spiking

[Hoop]

A very ugly chart below....
S&P500 is still open and trading (intraday chart) but MA50 is broken, Supports 1813 1808 1800 (psychological?) broken ...seems more likely now that 1775 support the big one which defines bulls or bears will be tested in days to come...
So far there's a bearish double top pattern formed...
Looking further into the future...We should watch for a possible complex head and shoulders pattern forming (left shoulders and heads already formed?) ..Caution rather than blind optimism should be noted if the index bounces off the 1775 neck looking to rally again.

I will post my experimental nya200r correction indicator when the data becomes available...

However ...some optimistic news for the Bulls
That image below is my post which I outlined a possible double top at 1813 in December which did happen...but it failed...and that short correction quickly ended with a bullish rally
We now have another bearish double top at 1850...will this one fail as well??????

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampPPOST.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampPPOST.png.html)
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50024012014intra.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50024012014intra.png.html)

[winner69]

Phew - good news the guy just said it is not the end of the world

Another guy says not a bear market yet

The lady cheerleader just told us that the currency crisis in EM is not systemic ....phew

But most agree more stimulus needed. Maybe my mate Kunstler was right

[boring]

This is where it gets real interesting.

Next week we'll see earnings releases from some of the bluest of blue chips: Apple, Caterpillar, Ford, Boeing, 3M, Visa and Chevron.
So far, the earnings being reported have been a mixed bag, but mostly on the disappointing side. Should the earnings announcements next week continue to disappoint, we could see a continuation of the sharp declines we saw this week.

This gets me really interested, because I have not been able to reinvest my dividends accumulated over the last 4 months (I always take my dividends in cash rather than automatically reinvest). My dividend-value rules have not identified any dividend-aristocrat and dividend-champion stocks worth investing from a value perspective. The yields are just too low relative to historical norms.

So although we'd all like to see our stocks we own all shoot to the moon, sometimes a good old fashion correction is needed if you are a net-buyer and accumulator of stocks.

[Hoop]

"Get out" warning fired off yesterday with KST, last of the 4 necessary indicators to give the red arrow was triggered...KST only just triggered and being a day behind I'm not sure what todays S&P 500 bullish bounce off the critical 1775 support/trend double point will do to the KST indicator...

So with todays respecting the 1775 support...is it all good news?....urrr definitely a Yes with sounds of relief!!!! and.. maybe later a... no..

...........with reference to No!!!..the interesting scenario of correction indicator firing off warnings now at a time so close to a bullish continuing uptrend reinforces and increases the probability of that forming H&S pattern currently in progressl to keep forming to completion.....As of now the righthand neck has been formed at 1775....areas to watch is for any breakdown from now to around the 1810 1820/40 area if that happens, that is the completion of the right hand shoulder...if the rally continues then 1850+ is the next area to watch as the simple H&S pattern formation is deemed as broken down and disappears forever...a higher high signals an end to the correction and another rally should be expected to continue....

So ....Is my experimental indicator a "cry wolf" indicator?....I think not...it's proven itself now as a very good early warning correction indicator...it just happens that the recent corrections have been very shallow....
Increasingly shallow corrections breeds confidence and exuberance as more and more investors lose their fear and start take advantage of any drop to buy more thus creating increasingly shallow and smaller corrections ....a typical bull market last stage in the cycle signature....At this BMC last stage its no worries, its good times, future looks rosy, no need to fear making money is easy!!!........unfortunately it is at this stage when nearly everyone dismisses that all rising markets need breathers to stay healthy and investors start to ignore their disciplines and indicators as they are seen as failing to do their job..."this time it's different..eh????"

Rule No 1: if your reliable indicator triggers off, one should always respond to it..if its another shallow event, then no harm done... just get back in and treat the "get out, get back in" expense as an insurance policy...just remember the correction indicator will give you advanced warning of the "big one".

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NYA200r29012014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NYA200r29012014.png.html)
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50030012014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50030012014.png.html)http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/nya200rkstbreak.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/nya200rkstbreak.png.html)
EDIT 1/02/2014: 30th January removed the doubt...On a bounce day as a relief rally raised the market off its Critical support (1775ish).. the KST break widened

[Hoop]

I love this quote........re:.4th quarter earning season ,... Bad January for equity markets ..investors telling the market that par earnings not good enough (Marketwatch (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/par-earnings-not-good-enough-after-2013-stock-run-up-2014-01-31))

“Investors are like children: If you tell them you’re bringing home a puppy, you better have a puppy when you get home,” said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx.

[ananda77]

Hoop, methinks the investors in US markets are as confused as we are as to where to put their money so they'll just go with the historical view ... I.e. US mrkts go sideways and up ... for how long? There a saying .... markets can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent (or something like that?) Me? Just adjusting (mainly tightening!) stops and seeing what happens... Not going to overthink this too much as I need my sleeps :)

...the SPX 500 quite oversold in the daily frame, however, still way overbought in the monthly. Despite the long term overbought, a lot of cash has been pumped into the markets going into the weekend Close. The Fed pumping versus institutional distribution -who's going to be the winner-

...Yellen, starting her job at the helm this week has to show what she's made of. At the worst, the market will be falling in a very controlled fashion -no big risk here-

...am expecting no more downside than into the *1750 before the market goes past the *1900...after that, a more substantial correction in the 'up to 20% lot' sometimes during 2014

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

A77, how much money inflow is coming from outside the US?

...do not have an exact break-down of that

Cash is flowing in from three sources: Fed - Institutional Investors - Foreign Liquidity Inflows. Since institutions are in distribution going sideways at the moment, that leaves the Fed and Foreign

...a word of caution: the Fed has an epic fight on its hand against the extreme overbought conditions in the US-markets

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...am expecting no more downside than into the *1750 before the market goes past the *1900...after that, a more substantial correction in the 'up to 20% lot' sometimes during 2014

Kind Regards

*1750 now Line in the Sand, but at the same time not expecting too much downside anymore -most likely a prolonged sideways-

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

*1750 now Line in the Sand, but at the same time not expecting too much downside anymore -most likely a prolonged sideways-

Kind Regards

...some base building activity appears around the *1743-mark. Together with today's Close *1751.64 indicates, the market is ready to tackle the 18 December 2013 Low *1767.99 _Breakdown Point *1775. A Close above *1755.79 necessary to be sure if no long position taken around the *1743-mark

Kind Regards

[winner69]

Isn't it a sad and weird world we live in when this is good news

The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits fell by 20,000 to 331,000 in the past week, which was better than the 335,000 first-time claims Wall Street was expecting.

.

[Hoop]

S&P 500 had a good day today ...1773 +21 +1.22%
So is the correction over?....maybe but too early to tell...As with most corrections the biggest fall of the falls is usually at the beginning of a correction ...we don't know the time frame of this correction..
As with all corrective behaviour late in a Bull Cycle we don't know if this is another correction or a start of a cyclic reversal...we have to wait to see what develops ...

The good news is.... todays rise is a relief rally in an attempt to create a bottom,,,dip buying and very short termers in and out.
More good news is...the amount of selling volume is a worry but could be viewed as healthy if that available money is sidelined and ready to fuel the next upward momentum...
The warning news is.... todays rally tested the 1775 major support on the chart but so far has not created a bullish break above it...
The bad news is ....the S&P500 chart is still technically broken...and this time it has many hurdles (resistances) to jump to create a new high..(continuation of the bull cycle).
More bad news is...the index needs short term good news to enable it to form a bearish H&S pattern...so breaking the 1775 support is the short term good news needed

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50006022014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50006022014.png.html)

[ananda77]

...market has entered an extremely high risk zone with a Close just under the
break-down point *1775
...a potential bull trap could take the market lower to at least test
the *1743 area again
...take profit here and see what's gonna happen - let the market show it's true
colors

Kind Regards

[winner69]

A great recovery today after a bad start when the really weak jobs numbers came out

S&P back close to 1800 - that's good

The cheerleaders on CNBC going to get their wish .....UNTAPERING and even more stimulus than before. Can't let the big plan falter now can we

New record highs by end of month ....maybe

[Hoop]

New record highs by end of month ....maybe.... yes maybe ....two good rises now... closed today at 1797 +24 +1.31%...broke back up over the major resistance of 1775 so it is now back as a major support again and eliminating the 1700 TA target threat for now ...

On seeing a major support break back suddenly like it's not even there shows there was huge buying pressure today which has to be seen as bullish...

The S&P500 slowly mending itself but still a lot of work to do to eliminate the next threat in line, the bearish H&S pattern which is still forming....then after that the bearish double top.

[winner69]

Lets go back a few pages on this thread and resurrect the talk of the 1800 resistance again

[Hoop]

Lets go back a few pages on this thread and resurrect the talk of the 1800 resistance again
Yes this 1800 resistance is becoming stronger another fail intraday today increased the strength

[boring]

Apologies if this chart has already been posted.
Interesting coincidence? Hope so.

http://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2014/02/10/Photos/MG/MW-BU310_scary__20140210132547_MG.jpg?uuid=d13c2b42-9280-11e3-9759-00212803fad6

Normally I would've been skeptical that there was some sort of "creative" curve fitting going on, but if it's from Tom DeMark, I really take notice.
Here's the article

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11?dist=afterbell

[Hoop]

Actually the latest gain of the S&P500 breaking past that left hand shoulder 1810 (1813) resistance point and closed at 1820 +20 +1.12%...is rather significant, its a bullish event and it weakens that H&S pattern threat its trying to form and another confirmation setting the bottom at 1738...So the broken S&P 500 can be considered as nearly fixed....A new record high will confirm that, and remove the thought of an H&S pattern forming..

However at 1820 the H&S pattern threat is still considered strong.....

[boring]

A good technical observation there Hoop !

I'm calling this mornings rally the "Yellen Effect" with her steady-at-the-helm, dovish testimony to the US House of Representatives.

I was fairly excited about the mini-correction just experienced because it gave me an opportunity to scale into a position in McCormick & CO (MKC).
I've been waiting for an opportunity to buy into this company for almost an eternity (OK, let's call it around 3 years).

I was hesitant because the technicals looked terrible (price below the 200-Day SMA, 50-Day SMA below the 200-Day SMA) but I try to stick to my FA framework as best as I can. The awful technicals means that I can only scale into an initial position (30% of my intended position size), and not commit anymore funds until it begins to trend upwards. Fundamentally speaking, I love this company, although it's still not that cheap on a valuation basis. But a business that owns the largest market share of herbs, spices and seasonings ... and provides both branded and private-label products ... I want in. Even better, Standards and Poors Capital IQ has a SELL rating on this stock ... perfect ! In my experience, their BUY ratings have been rubbish, so a SELL rating is an opportunity to be bullish.

Just be aware, usually when I buy something it goes on to tank a few days later. But I've always played the long-game, look to own solid businesses and have a holding period of 20 years or more if possible.

[Hoop]

A good technical observation there Hoop !

I'm calling this mornings rally the "Yellen Effect" with her steady-at-the-helm, dovish testimony to the US House of Representatives.

I was fairly excited about the mini-correction just experienced because it gave me an opportunity to scale into a position in McCormick & CO (MKC).
I've been waiting for an opportunity to buy into this company for almost an eternity (OK, let's call it around 3 years).

I was hesitant because the technicals looked terrible (price below the 200-Day SMA, 50-Day SMA below the 200-Day SMA) but I try to stick to my FA framework as best as I can. The awful technicals means that I can only scale into an initial position (30% of my intended position size), and not commit anymore funds until it begins to trend upwards. Fundamentally speaking, I love this company, although it's still not that cheap on a valuation basis. But a business that owns the largest market share of herbs, spices and seasonings ... and provides both branded and private-label products ... I want in. Even better, Standards and Poors Capital IQ has a SELL rating on this stock ... perfect ! In my experience, their BUY ratings have been rubbish, so a SELL rating is an opportunity to be bullish.

Just be aware, usually when I buy something it goes on to tank a few days later. But I've always played the long-game, look to own solid businesses and have a holding period of 20 years or more if possible.

Technicals looking crappy now..Boring ..Am I looking at the same company as you??...MKC was in a great uptrend between Sept 2011 and August 2013 ....you should been in then and let the trend be your friend...

[boring]

Yep Hoop, you sure are looking at the same company, and yes, the technicals look crappy.

That's one of the by-products of using the dividend-value/cash flow strategy for long-term investments. This system of investing is definitely not for everybody. The analytics almost always issue a buy signal when the price is under pressure and the technicals look bad. By the time the technicals improve, the buy signal has long past because the appreciating price has made the yield fall. That's what happened during that entire time this stock was on a nice uptrend. Dividend yield was consistently below the S&P 500 market yield, so I would have been better off buying the index, getting a higher yield whilst eliminating individual company risk.

[Hoop]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50024022014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50024022014.png.html)

[peat]

yeh I was looking at S+P to consider a short and declined coz I didn't see convincing divergence

[SimonHouse]

I guess we can expect some short term volatility next week due to the Russian troops taking over Crimea in Ukraine.

[Valuegrowth]

I guess we can expect some short term volatility next week due to the Russian troops taking over Crimea in Ukraine. Yes. I agree with you.

[winner69]

Hoop maybe 1900 becomes the new resistance talking point .... But when through that we will rocket to 2000. ....... By easter?

Who would have thought a S&P500 at 2000 and a NZX50 at 6000

Funny world eh

[voltage]

what is the cheapest and uncomplicated way to buy the ETF sp500 - I see it is listed on the ASX. Is it possible to drip feed. MER .07% That is low $70 to manage $100000 - a no brainer

[Joshuatree]

Im building cash taking profits selling dogs rebalancing adding a little to gold stocks , close to buying some $US too.. In the USA housing still very low ;unemployment not improving ; ' GDP what with QE some say it should be 6% but its 2.5 or 3; with QE reducing what will prop up the sick patient?. It feels prudent to hunker down atm preserve capital , buy back in later. If i took a big hit now my goal of a comfortable retirement would be in tatters ; for me being 60 means now is a time to conserve/ risk on.

[winner69]

The vix isn't looking afraid ... http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX+Interactive#symbol=%5Evix;range=5 y;compare=;indicator=ema(90,120)+mfi+macd+volume;c harttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=o ff;source=;

I read an alarmist bit in a us web site that said it was up to 17 and this was significant ... ;)

Your mates have to talk about something eh belg .....ha ha

VIX at 17,what are hoot - those with money expecting the s&p500 to move by 5% in te next month ....UP or DOWN

[Valuegrowth]

We cannot predict how high S & P 500 might go. But we can have and estimation around 1900 based on the general knowledge and other factors. This is the target (Between 1850 to 1900) I had in my mind. I have no way at this time to understand which way S&P 500 will go.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[winner69]

Hoop

Do you still run a Coppock Indicator on the US markets

Apparently showing something that hasn't happened since 2007

[Hoop]

Hoop

Do you still run a Coppock Indicator on the US markets

Apparently showing something that hasn't happened since 2007
Hi Winner

Do you still run a Coppock Indicator on the US markets
No ...For me the Coppock indicator sole purpose is to find the beginnings of a new bull market cycle for the DOW.....I have heard of Coppock downward zero crossover may indicate a new bear market cycle but it's reliability and usefulness is suspect as Coppock indicator is a very late indicator and by the time the indicator approaches near the zero crossover the market may have recovered from a severe bull market correction (as opposed to a suspected primary reversal to bear)..You don't really want to stay "in" and suffer a severe market correction waiting for the lagging Coppock to signal a sell.....In that point I don't use the Coppock Indicator as there far better indicators to use instead...Actually I hardly ever use Coppock ..only when I suspect a bear market bottoming is near... ie Gold Market ????

Apparently showing something that hasn't happened since 2007... Really!! ...do tell...I hate suspense and I may learn something :D

I did a Coppock indicator run on a DOW chart and posted it tonight....I felt that as the indicator was designed using the DOW data it was fitting to use the DOW thread rather than this S&P500 thread
Click here (http://Apparently showing something that hasn't happened since 2007) for the DOW thread (http://Apparently showing something that hasn't happened since 2007)

Click here for the Gold thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7449-Gold/page471)

[winner69]

Hoop - Just that Hussman mentioned that it was showing a double top (killer wave) similar to 2007

Here is what he wrote in 2007 -

Other interesting measures of “overbought” conditions are also worth noting. Last week, Jim Stack reviewed an observation that a technician named Don Hahn made in the 1960's about the Coppock Guide (a measure of price momentum based on the 10-month smoothing of the averaged 14-month and 11-month rate of change in the S&P 500). He observed that when a double-top or “wave” occurs in this measure, without falling to zero between those peaks, “it identifies a bull market that hasn't experienced any normal, healthy washouts or corrections. That's a runaway market usually headed for disaster. This double-top has occurred only 6 times in 80 years.” Those instances, and the subsequent market losses were: October 1929 (-86.2%), May 1946 (-28.8%), February 1969 (-36.1%), January 1973 (-48.2%), September 1987 (-33.5%), and April 1998 (though followed by an 18% market correction by October 1998, the subsequent recovery produced a third “shelf” in the Coppock Guide by 2000, and the market lost nearly half its value between 2000 and 2002).

[Hoop]

Hoop - Just that Hussman mentioned that it was showing a double top (killer wave) similar to 2007

Here is what he wrote in 2007 -

Other interesting measures of “overbought” conditions are also worth noting. Last week, Jim Stack reviewed an observation that a technician named Don Hahn made in the 1960's about the Coppock Guide (a measure of price momentum based on the 10-month smoothing of the averaged 14-month and 11-month rate of change in the S&P 500). He observed that when a double-top or “wave” occurs in this measure, without falling to zero between those peaks, “it identifies a bull market that hasn't experienced any normal, healthy washouts or corrections. That's a runaway market usually headed for disaster. This double-top has occurred only 6 times in 80 years.” Those instances, and the subsequent market losses were: October 1929 (-86.2%), May 1946 (-28.8%), February 1969 (-36.1%), January 1973 (-48.2%), September 1987 (-33.5%), and April 1998 (though followed by an 18% market correction by October 1998, the subsequent recovery produced a third “shelf” in the Coppock Guide by 2000, and the market lost nearly half its value between 2000 and 2002).

Hmmmm... (Sorry Winner..I'll waffle on first before I respond to your post)..

.....I sort of remember people back in 2009 putting their logic to use affected by the ultra pessimistic "now" environment...Coppock indicator included..They have a feeling or perceived notion then find valid facts and cut bits out to validate their argument.....Some of the doomday stuff back then was terribly convincing and hard to argue against...

I bit of "now" affected ST history was my response back on 20th June 2009 to Ananda and Dumbass (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5689-Dow-Jones-Ind-Av/page10) who managed to view charts to deduct that the S&P500 was going to dive back down to 500 or worse (It all was according to valid chart theory How could a chartist argue against that..eh?)...I did....I said their narrow view presented a garbage in perception with their resulting post being garbage out...Obviously that statement didn't go down well with either of them...My post explained it poorly I must admit especially when at that time 95% of the media were 100% pessimistic and the whole investment environment surrounding us was terribly bleak...Dumbass went a step further and said that my post saying 500 was very remote was garbage out....Ah those were the good ol days':D. However reading back on my post makes better sense in March 2014 with the "now" environment very rosy the S&P500 at 1850 and with hindsight that the S&P500 never reached anywhere near 500 after that June 2009 post...

It's amazing how the "now" affects your near future outlook and is able to make you twist valid theories and observations around to validate your perceptive point of view..



In my 20/6/2009 post I linked an Ian Woodward blog (click here (http://www.highgrowthstock.com/IanBlog/2009/06/01/wishful-thinking-or-the-next-leg-of-the-bear-market/))which is full of long term Coppock charts of the DOW..With hindsight his blog was affected by the pessimism of that "Now" back then...but it does show Coppock indicators going back 95 years or so.

Winner looking at Ian Woodwards Coppock charts it seems hard for me to spot those Coppock double tops....yes in hindsight I can vaguely see something familiar but given on the day to say that this is a double top formation which will eventually complete with a drop below zero,indicates to me as being a predictive perception affected by the "now" ..

In trying to elinimate the "now" factor, I'm left with Coppock waves which look similar to a point then can take different paths???..Maybe I'm missing the point or being a bit harsh but ....

..........Nah...I'll keep it simple...Coppock Indicator was designed for one thing...

[winner69]

Can only assume the double tops are the peak in Jun04 and Dec07 which poreceded the that collapse and now reckons the peaks in June 10 and Now are going to precede the next collapse

As you say Mr Coppock only did this to signal the start of long bull runs eh - not as a signal to get out

Mr Grantham sees a crash coming .... like the graphic in the article

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/03/grantham-sees-seven-year-bust/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily+MacroBusiness&utm_content=Daily+MacroBusiness+CID_9a0fdf0fb0db6f a0ce8fe080d39269f5&utm_source=Email+marketing+software&utm_term=Grantham+sees+seven+year+bust

[winner69]

Here is what Grantham said

Its all OK Bobcat .... 30% more upside .... but the crash will be bigger

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/03/24/jeremy-grantham-federal-reserve/

[Hoop]

Here is what Grantham said

Its all OK Bobcat .... 30% more upside .... but the crash will be bigger

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/03/24/jeremy-grantham-federal-reserve/

Hmmm.. That would take us to 2,350 on the S&P 500, or roughly 25% from where we are now.

Logic says sell at 2345 and go hunker in a bunker

[Hoop]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50024022014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50024022014.png.html)

A month after posting the above chart, the bear drums are starting up again...

The S&P500 closed today (1849) on its 1850 support .....or is it now resistance?.....
Lets look at todays 1 minute chart below to determine which... Hmmm...It failed to break the shackles near closing time....the 1850 support could be history and that's not a good sign....tommorrow we will know more


http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=sp500&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=3377&style=320&freq=9&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=1&rand=376259982&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1


So with the bears out playing in the bulls playground, its time to drag out my Sentiment Indicator and check for correction (or reversal) warnings.
The charts show the sentiment indicators firing off 2 out of 4 signals on a weakening trend...so as of today it is alerts a caution.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50027032014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50027032014.png.html)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NYA200r26032014-1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NYA200r26032014-1.png.html)

[Hoop]

Just look at the MA200 and relax in it's glorious, continuous, east-nor-easterly direction. :)

Yep...its glorious...the S&P can drop 100points (-5.5%) to meet its still rising MA200 ...no worries..eh

Is the Last stage mature bull market giving you those nice warm comfy fuzzy "no problems no fear" feelings....Belg??:D

Those bear corrections becoming shallower and shallower...all good ..huh?.....lets throw away our correction alarms as we don't need them anymore,they always crying wolf anyway...its all different this time ..so what the hell..if the MA200 is always pointing up facing Nor'east we must as well throw all our investment tools away....

Tally Ho...Up Up and away....pip pip and all that:)

[winner69]

Economy on a roll ....shares will follow

Here is mr Buffett wrote in 1999 -


Now, to get some historical perspective, let’s look back at the 34 years before this one–and here we are going to see an almost Biblical kind of symmetry, in the sense of lean years and fat years–to observe what happened in the stock market. Take, to begin with, the first 17 years of the period, from the end of 1964 through 1981. Here’s what took place in that interval:

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE

Dec. 31, 1964: 874.12

Dec. 31, 1981: 875.00

Now I’m known as a long-term investor and a patient guy, but that is not my idea of a big move.

And here’s a major and very opposite fact: During that same 17 years, the GDP of the U.S.–that is, the business being done in this country–almost quintupled, rising by 370%. Or, if we look at another measure, the sales of the FORTUNE 500 (a changing mix of companies, of course) more than sextupled. And yet the Dow went exactly nowhere.

[winner69]

love this tweet from a guy called conor

As someone who has lived through a tech bubble and the Irish property bubble the stench of snake oil from Silicon Valley is overwhelming

I think Conor is saying the Nasdaq bubble has just started to burst

[Hoop]

Have to go to Marketwatch (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-the-markets-crying-wolf-again-2014-03-26) to see the enlarged charts...Hoop

March 26, 2014, 3:45 p.m. EDT
Are the markets crying wolf again?


http://i.mktw.net/mw5/content/authors/au5hxhar.isi.jpg By L.A. Little
After 15 months of pretty much uninterrupted "up," it is pretty hard to imagine a real correction — you know, one of those setbacks that wipes 10% or more off the indexes. As a reference point, 10% off the S&P 500 (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/SPX?lc=int_mb_1001) would have it trading back to less than 1700. That might actually take your breath away.
As always, timing a top is not an easy thing to do. In fact, timing the top is a misnomer because what you should really be doing is protecting against a top rather than trying to time one. A top necessarily occurs at highs. You don't typically want to directionally short highs. What you want to do is to protect your positions rather than liquidate them initially until you know a top is in. You do this when the potential for a larger drop surfaces.
Of course, we are talking about market structure and the setup that occurs when a larger drop becomes possible. It's here again, and this time appears even more sinister than it has previously. You only need two charts to see it. The S&P 500 is one of them.

http://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2014/03/26/Photos/MC/MW-BX601_spx_da_20140326143458_MC.jpg?uuid=5aa36114-b515-11e3-b721-00212803fad6 Enlarge Image

The Russell 2000 is the other.

http://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2014/03/26/Photos/MC/MW-BX598_rut_da_20140326143238_MC.jpg?uuid=073f7300-b515-11e3-b721-00212803fad6 Enlarge Image

The final chart is the breakdown that has already occurred in the Nasdaq (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp?lc=int_mb_1001).

http://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2014/03/26/Photos/MC/MW-BX600_ixic_d_20140326143356_MC.jpg?uuid=3a24e85e-b515-11e3-b721-00212803fad6 Enlarge Image

One can never know for sure that a top is in — it's only in hindsight that one knows. What one can know is when the risks are elevated, and they definitely are now. For so long, it hasn't matter. Maybe it won't again. That's how markets make highs. They cry wolf so many times that you no longer listen. Then finally, it a wolf really does appear.


About L.A. Little

L.A. Little, a professional money manager trading his own accounts while managing investment funds for qualified investors from his Colorado-based office, is the author of three books (Trade Like the Little Guy, Trend Qualification and Trading, and Trend Trading Set-Ups) and has written extensively for many popular publications such as Stocks and Commodities, Active Trader, TheStreet.com, RealMoneyPro.com and Minyanville.com. He writes daily on his website Technical Analysis Today, (http://www.tatoday.com)which offers services that implement the concepts he espouses, and can be reached at tat@tatoday.com.

23 Comments (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-the-markets-crying-wolf-again-2014-03-26#)


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[Hoop]

Yellen's not going to take the punch bowl away just yet ...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/yellen-job-market-needs-low-rates-time-143041046--finance.html


... Party on people! :)


This chart is telling me the Equity party people are pissed.....eh

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/MWimages/MW-BX976_sp_neg_MG_20140331143224.jpg

[winner69]

This chart is telling me the Equity party people are pissed.....eh

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/MWimages/MW-BX976_sp_neg_MG_20140331143224.jpg

Hoop what do the columns represent?

Not quite with it tonight

[Hoop]

Hoop what do the columns represent?

Not quite with it tonight
Don't worry its not you... the chart is not clear in it's explanation.
The chart came from here (http://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/guidance/guidance_3.31.14)

The company announcements beat the guidances (pre-announcements) (red bars) so that tells you the majority of Management underestimated their pre-announced future result??...why?
Could this be the usual conservative action in future prediction???...underestimate the recovery, underestimate the bust but overestimate around the top....Not enough data to look back on history with any reliabilty...but the last record result (Q1 2006) makes sense.. companies and investors were climbing the wall of worry ....

This time the near record is happening during a period of investor complacency. Investors are very confident but are Companies still worried after years of record earnings???..why the divergence? ....Is it a Market disconnect??.. does one piece of history repeat and another ~15% to reach the top??.. or is it different this time as the bull is taking anti-aging pills. :)...This is another piece of evidence that doesn't make sense of where the market is at ... so, I think Mr Market is pissed.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampPpreannoucementchart31032014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampPpreannoucementchart31032014.png.html)

[winner69]

The chart came from here (http://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/guidance/guidance_3.31.14)

The company announcements beat the guidances (preannouncements) so that tells you Management underestimated their pre announced future result??...why?
Could this be the usual conservative action...underestimate the recovery, underestimate the bust but overestimate around the top....Not enough data to look back on history with any reliabilty...but the last time record (Q1 2006) makes sense.. companies and investors were climbing the wall of worry ....

This time the near record is happening during a period of investor complacency. Investors are very confident but Companies still worried???..why the divergence? ....Is it a Market disconnect??.. history repeats and another ~15% to reach the top??.. or is it different this time as the bull is taking anti-aging pills. :)...This is another piece of evidence that doesn't make sense of where the market is at ... I think Mr Market is pissed.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampPpreannoucementchart31032014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampPpreannoucementchart31032014.png.html)

Thanks hoop - I will study

S&p500 over 1900 this week .....that be exciting eh

[Hoop]

Thanks hoop - I will study

S&p500 over 1900 this week .....that be exciting eh
Yep...it seems there's a good chance that's going to happen..probably 1950 before the end of April as well...

The higher it goes the more bearish I get.......I'm ok with the E side but where is the additional investor money going to come from to keep the P side up..Investor margin debt is already historically high....what do you reckon.?....

[Hoop]

Closed down -24 points to 1865 (-1.26%) on Friday did not trigger my correction indicator ..that caution signal 3 weeks ago and disappeared at the end of March has not yet returned either...
That one day drop did very little damage so S&P500 still technically healthy...

[Hoop]

Closed down again 20 points to 1845 (-1.08%)

Geez, three black crows (I think?)!!!!!!... and my correction indicator (made up of 4 indicators) still hasn't fired...3 have broken firing sell signals, awaiting for the 4th the S&P500 MA50 to break (1839) to trigger the get out warning...Another down day tomorrow will definitely trigger the GET OUT warning

Hmmm........if I use EMA50 (more sensitive to the "now" than the MA50)..that has fired sell at 1848 today Completing all 4 indicators....

Hmmm...maybe time to fine tune this correction indicator to be a little bit more responsive...I'll backtest with EMA50 to see what difference this makes.

Just for the record...3 black crows often feature in reversals
However the good news is that 1840 support was tested today and it failed to break it......so technically speaking the S&P500 is still OK, it is not broken..(yet?)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50007042014.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50007042014.gif.html)

[winner69]

Percy was talking about fairies the other day ...here is another guy doing the same
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/4/8/markets/bell-tolls-margin-debt-catastrophe

Quote -

He went further by agreeing with Financial Times writer James Mackintosh in declaring “a not insignificant number of stocks in the S&P 500 have valuations that rely on belief in a financial fairy.”

The Mackintosh article noted that before the two previous market crises there had never been more than 25 stocks in the S&P 500 trading at both more than 10 times book value and over 20 times forward earnings. Today there are 33, leaving us in uncharted waters.

That Macintosh article
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/461dcebe-98c3-11e3-8503-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2yKKYN1xF

[winner69]

Janet finally getting it and doing what's needed to keep the merry go round going until 2016

She must have had them worried a few months ago going off a on a tangent that nearly stopped the merry go round but all going to plan now

S&P be 2000 soon and Naddaq 5000

Good times to continue

[winner69]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-st-extends-183711879.html

Yip W69, can being kicked further down the road. One wonder what the eventual outcome will be ...

Can will be kicked down the road until next election .... they have too much to lose

[Hoop]

Janet finally getting it and doing what's needed to keep the merry go round going until 2016

She must have had them worried a few months ago going off a on a tangent that nearly stopped the merry go round but all going to plan now

S&P be 2000 soon and Naddaq 5000

Good times to continue

Secret meeting last month about dropping the 6.5% unrmployment rate threshnold to kick in fiscal tightening....Hmmm not very secret even this mere mortal heard about it and I'm at the very bottom of this food chain...yes markets love it...the cheap available money keeps rolling in....

Amazing how this so-called "secret" is published with fanfare when Equity reversal signs popped up...Huh?

Unabashed market manipulation (again!..5 years now?)...they must have a open celestial link with Rob Muldoon the master manipulator.

Those of us being around during the early 1980's in NZ know how that ended...


Closed down again 20 points to 1845 (-1.08%)

Geez, three black crows (I think?)!!!!!!... and my correction indicator (made up of 4 indicators) still hasn't fired...3 have broken firing sell signals, awaiting for the 4th the S&P500 MA50 to break (1839) to trigger the get out warning...Another down day tomorrow will definitely trigger the GET OUT warning

Hmmm........if I use EMA50 (more sensitive to the "now" than the MA50)..that has fired sell at 1848 today Completing all 4 indicators....

Hmmm...maybe time to fine tune this correction indicator to be a little bit more responsive...I'll backtest with EMA50 to see what difference this makes.

Just for the record...3 black crows often feature in reversals
However the good news is that 1840 support was tested today and it failed to break it......so technically speaking the S&P500 is still OK, it is not broken..(yet?)


Nah...abandoned the EMA50 fine tuning idea...the connection indicator didn't trigger "Get out" with the MA50...The 3 day drop was an excellent test for my experimental sentiment Indicator..

S&P500 up for the second day (bottomed intraday yesterday at support 1837)
S&P500 up 20 (+1.08%) to close at 1872..
As there was no major trend breaks, does that indicate the 3 black crows (if it was one?) odds on being a reversal will be up reversal?? rather than down...or the lesser odds of a continuation....I guess time will tell

[winner69]

Here's a good article for those interested I th cause of market collapses

http://www.economist.com//news/essays/21600451-finance-not-merely-prone-crises-it-shaped-them-five-historical-crises-show-how-aspects-today-s-fina?fsrc=nlw%7Chig%7C4-10-2014%7C8283453%7C137188369%7CAP

Abstract
Finance is not merely prone to crises, it is shaped by them. Five historical crises show how aspects of today’s financial system originated—and offer lessons for today’s regulators

[Hoop]

Nah...abandoned the EMA50 fine tuning idea...the connection indicator didn't trigger "Get out" with the MA50...The 3 day drop was an excellent test for my experimental sentiment Indicator..

S&P500 up for the second day (bottomed intraday yesterday at support 1837)
S&P500 up 20 (+1.08%) to close at 1872..
As there was no major trend breaks, does that indicate the 3 black crows (if it was one?) odds on being a reversal will be up reversal?? rather than down...or the lesser odds of a continuation....I guess time will tell

Hmmm..My correction indicator fired off GET OUT warning fired the very next day I wrote this post...Chart Target price 1790

[winner69]

Weakest earnings in 55years

Not too good for the E when the P is already at elevated levels

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/04/15/weakest-earnings-cycle-in-55-years-lpls-kleintop/

[winner69]

and just as well this time is different and CAPE is a load of **** .....else little in it for long term 'investors'

I hold when things keep going up and sell when things start going down .... and without making life too complicated with shorting and derivatives and all that sort od stuff readily accept that cash returns are sometimes far better than losing 30% - 50% in major downturns

[ananda77]

...anyway, despite large liquidity pump for the past week, the SPX500 unable to manage a close above 1869. As a result, weakness still dominates the market going past the EASTER break.
Kind Regards

[winner69]

Quote - With 46 per cent of the S&P 500 having reported first-quarter results through early Friday morning, overall earnings per share are now seen rising 0.2 per cent from year-ago levels, according to FactSet

With the E not increasing wonder what will happen to market sentiment (the PE) and subsequently to the P

A market 'priced to perfection' has disappointed .....yes?

[winner69]

My mate Hussman reprinted something he wrote in 2001 in this weeks note of his

Even a return to median bull market valuations would be brutal for the most popular tech stocks. We're not even talking about bear market valuations, and we're making the leap of faith, contrary to the evidence, that the quality of current revenues is as high as those generated during the past decade. To illustrate the probable epilogue to the current
bubble, we've calculated price targets for some of the glamour techs, based on current revenues per share, multiplied by the median price/revenue ratio over
the bull market period 1991-1999.

Cisco Systems: $18 3/4 52-week high: $82 / (revenues 2.87/share, median price/revenue ratio 6.53).

Sun Microsystems: $4 1/2 52-week high: $64 / (revenues 5.17/share, median price/revenue ratio 0.88).

EMC: $10 52-week high: $105 / (revenues 3.63/share, median price/revenue 2.77).

Oracle: $6 7/8 52-week high: $46 / (revenues 1.80/share, median price/revenue 3.84).


Heck today we think 5 to 10 is OK / normal / fair for as price/sales ratio - just as well this time is different. else one big crash about to happen

Whole story here if you want to read http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140428.htm

Usually writes a load of **** according to Belg but this time he just might be right

Love that phrase THE FUTURE IS NOW - meaning likes of XRO and PEB are priced today what they will be worth in 5 years or so if everything goes to plan. WYN and others I wont mention because even on that basis they are totally overpriced today

[winner69]

I take it that as this time it's different the old adage "sell in May and go away" does not apply this year

So we should be ok for the next few months, no nasty surprises on the US markets to low over to anz markets

[winner69]

May is here

Interesting chart
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20140430.htm?H

Quote - While the May through October period has seen mild gains during major bull markets (i.e. 1950-56 & 1982-97), the overall subpar performance during the months of May through October is noteworthy. Hence the saying, 'sell in May and walk away.'

Just as well this year is different

[Hoop]

The chart is somewhat misleading for those that hold for longer periods. I.e. May to Oct may be the best times to buy if you're holding for years.

Buying in a dip in a 5+ year old cyclic bull during a secular bull market cycle using the long term buy and hold strategy is a good strategy as timing the buys aren't going to be a problem effect over a long time period..Belg

but!!!...

Buying the dip in an 5+year old cyclic bull during a secular bear market cycle using the very long term buy and hold strategy is just plain stupid..

Anyway back to the short term
Another record busting high ...onwards and upwards

[winner69]

Went over 1900 today - that's good

Next stop 2000 - even better

Go Janet .... your brief is to keep the merry go round going until the next election isn't it

[SimonHouse]

Where is marketwinner? We need his input badly Winner69.... I am missing out on the Moroccan and Pakistani index news.

[winner69]

Where is marketwinner? We need his input badly Winner69.... I am missing out on the Moroccan and Pakistani index news.

Seems a bit quite eh ...maybe markets keeping going up has upset his plans

Marakeesh Express (ME) on Morocco bourse still going well

[SimonHouse]

Seems a bit quite eh ...maybe markets keeping going up has upset his plans

Marakeesh Express (ME) on Morocco bourse still going well

Yeah well you just look at the world through the sunset in your eyes.

[ananda77]

Buying in a dip in a 5+ year old cyclic bull during a secular bull market cycle using the long term buy and hold strategy is a good strategy as timing the buys aren't going to be a problem effect over a long time period..Belg

but!!!...

Buying the dip in an 5+year old cyclic bull during a secular bear market cycle using the very long term buy and hold strategy is just plain stupid..

Anyway back to the short term
Another record busting high ...onwards and upwards

...despite the Monday break-out in the US indices, some strong warning comes out of Japans Nikkei -at the start of a down trend in the longest monthly time frame- and so far refused to follow the US lead in any much noticeable way

All other Major Asian Indices took the US lead and recovered spectacular out of a smashed Close last Friday.

So the problem am having right now is a totally overbought situation in the US and Asia in the long term monthly and the start of a down trend in the Nikkei in the long term, while the short term is bullish with a break-out. Something is not right here.

Definitely, looking forward to a continuation of the 5-year old bull market -BUT AFTER a 10 to 20 (%) smash hit within 2014-. In the mean time, selling into whatever strength appears and NOT adding anything 'long'

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

aha the Nikkei been waiting for US Confirm -see if 1989 support holds....-
Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...so far *1869 holding into todays Close
Looking forward to see inflowing option liquidity levels before the Open tonight

Anyway, in terms of trading, still covering potential upside
with 'Nikkei Longs'

Cash reserves at levels that allow collecting on more downside

kind regards

[ananda77]

..bull/bear fight

-option liquidity inflows inconclusive
-institutions in/out of accumulation/distribution

...am remain bullish and expect a break-out to the upside soon, but a correction waiting in the wings
-trading accordingly with upside covered and large Cash reserves to buy the downside

kind regards

[winner69]

We are on the cusp of a new bull market

A real bull market, a secular one

The bear is dead

From
http://d21uq3hx4esec9.cloudfront.net/uploads/pdf/140518_TFTF.pdf

[Hoop]

We are on the cusp of a new bull market

A real bull market, a secular one

The bear is dead

From
http://d21uq3hx4esec9.cloudfront.net/uploads/pdf/140518_TFTF.pdf

It seems this secular debate has resurfaced.....It doesn't quite make secular sense...however it did happen back in 1933 to 1936 when there was a theoretical question mark about a quick fall to CAPE of 8 and up again creating a 4 yr secular bull...

Could a quick fall CAPE to 17 up to bull death zone (23) around now be described as a new secular bull ..I guess all rules are made to be broken and a secular reversal at 17 breaks Easterling's rule of having to be below 10...If it is truly a secular bull since 2010 then its ready to die prematurely as only one secular bull has lived longer than beyond CAPE 23 in the last 113 years..
Easterlings counter argument supported by behavioural evidence still supports the secular bear view...but the FED's regulatory effects which has caused a cut in the Equity/Economic system network communication channels has thrown a spanner into Easterling's works..eh?

Remember AORDS ginormous index rise with falling CAPE from 2003 to 2007 ...so it is very possible for the Equity Index to rise above the familiar trading range flat tops pattern behaviour of it's secular bear cycles..

[Hoop]

Hey Hoop,

I pointed out quite a while back that the S&P500 and DOW hadn't been really giving great returns when the falling value of the USD was taken into account. I seem to remember you threw up some great graphs of the DOW et al when valued in currencies other than the USD. Any chance you could do this again or better tell me the source of the data?

I have a theory that its overseas money that is keeping US stocks up and the overseas money is waiting for the spend thrift US consumers to start spending. Once the US consumers start spending we'll see the average PER fall back to more "normal" levels. If it doesn't, as I don't think it will (most consumers' real incomes have been falling) then we'll see a correction. Probably about 12 months from now unless US unemployment remains stubbornly high and the overseas money may just take flight.

Thanks. (modelling this against another period to see whether this time it is different ... ;) )

Did I ?.....Hmm can't remember..how long ago was this Belg?

I remember doing the different currencies for the metals copper gold etc...this can be done at Infomine.com website...I have the link to copper chart here which gives you the currency options (http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/copper/5-year/)..
I quickly tried the infomine chart with the SP500 It gave me the chart but it didn't give me the currency options :(...The infomine website is being a bitch tonight its slow and timing out on me.....Have a go yourself Belg you may have better luck than me..If you do succeed currency converting the indexes could you post it ...

I assume the NZX50 would be miles ahead of the S&P500 when charted under the same currency...

I will dredge my computer hard drives (5 terabytes in total :p) and see if I had in fact charted this for the indexes as you said...........I google around as well....it would be interesting comparisons..

cheers

[Hoop]

A comparison of SP500 NZX50 and ASX200 for the last 5 years...unfortunately not using the same currency index..Belg
I wonder when the ASX will do a catch up..

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP500NZXASX200comparision16052014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP500NZXASX200comparision16052014.png.html)

[ananda77]

Hoop:

...am remain bullish and accounting for a correction at most and prepared for a big upside breakout soon. So why are you expecting a bear market. Bears dont happen when everyone is expecting them as far as am concerned.
kind regards

[ananda77]

...even huge amounts of liquidity inflows by yesterdays Close could not push the US markets out of the trading range
...QE versus Institutions, the bull_bear fight will see another day
...conservatively speaking and TA based, the narkets MUST correct now or any further upside will develop into a dreaded blow-off hurting badly
...under the QE paradigm however, the markets need to be pushed past the current range into a new SUPERBULL

...theres no winner at this stage and in terms of trading, cover the up-side and deploy plenty of cash on the downside appears to be the most sensible approach

...of course, a prolonged trading range would nake sense
kind regards

[Hoop]

Hoop:

...am remain bullish and accounting for a correction at most and prepared for a big upside breakout soon. So why are you expecting a bear market. Bears dont happen when everyone is expecting them as far as am concerned.
kind regards
Hi Ananda
Many investors expect a correction could happen, but if you search there inner fundamental souls you would find they can not believe a equity bear market could happen when the economy is finally coming right..
The media (Market Watch) says 98% of the investors say a crash will happen in 2014 ... ....really!!!!!!.....where's the evidence the VIX (fear index) is at its record lows showing extreme complacent behaviour...
I have a list of about 15 bull to bear reversal signals....some are in much detail and too much to post
I may put it on the Investing and the secular bear market thread when I get time..

Ananda ..One of those signals relates to the VIX.... there is only one area where episodes of investors fear is absent and that is at the top of a bull market cycle.

See my layered chart below.
For some strange reason most investors think dramatically that the bull market cycle will always end with a crash and panic...

When looking back on history and charts it shows that most often it takes a fews months before investors realise that the cycle has changed from bull to bear. There's a thinking that its just another bull correction and they jump in the dip as they have got used to doing and accumulate the "cheap" shares... this is shown (VIX) below with complacency
. Sometimes a reversal can sneek up when there's no correction, just a series of wavering around the top and slow declines due to lethagy...investors here just wait it out thinking its a market breather and wait for the companies to catch up to the market..which this time doesn't happen..

See on the chart below the flat bull market tops...in 2000 after the bull market reversal it took 6 months to fall out from its top range area... in 2007 it took 4 months....those two Bull/bear reversals were sneaky..eh?..and it then took both of those reversals another 3 months after that!!! to create doubt that the slight falls and lack of highs for a long time and investor portfolio's not performing as they should, may be in fact be something more sinister than first thought...

Goes to show how easy it can be to be caught up being in investor denial.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP500VIX23052014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP500VIX23052014.png.html)

[ananda77]

Hoop these are wise conclusions and very valid observations not to be dismissed

However, as pointed out in the last post, markets keep operating within the 'FED POLICY' paradigm (no point repeating the details) which may explain the VIX showing extreme complacency.

As long as the FED does not give warnings to abandon, markets appear to be operating on a STAR TRECK pleasure planet, where people vist casinos where punters
never loose

kind regards

[ananda77]

SPX 500 *1930 - *1950 - *1975 next
...surprise surprise no TOP in sight just yet
Kind Regards

[winner69]

VIX down to 10 - jeez that is very low, hardly ever seen before

Sweet as no. No problems with the US markets.

Janet doing well

[noodles]

VIX down to 10 - jeez that is very low, hardly ever seen before

Sweet as no. No problems with the US markets.

Janet doing well
Complacency is the problem:)
Time to buy put options

[winner69]

This is not how an economic recovery is supposed to work: The average American still earns
less now per hour after inflation than he did five years ago when the U.S. exited its worst
recession in decades.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/recovery-hasnt-paid-off-yet-172000797.html

Can't see US markets picking up much more until their consumers have more money.

Isn't that the way it's meant to be Belg ......the guy in the street struggling if time while the likes of Koch get richer

Hard for those 20% of people with mortgages who are underwater to get ahead when wages not going up

[ananda77]

SPX 500 *1930 - *1950 - *1975 next
...surprise surprise no TOP in sight just yet
Kind Regards

... have to add *2000 as well - nice round number
... and also agree with Belgarion re: not going end well, we have a global economic recovery in front of us before that

kind regards

[ananda77]

...well Belgarion, of course no one can be sure of numbers but at this stage, there are few signs indicating a weakening up-trend. During the recent 30 point move down
-option inflowing liquidity weakened but remained in positive territory
-institutions remained in accumulation only lesser during the dive

... will keep U posted

kind regards

[ananda77]

... keep the upside covered with plenty of cash ready to cover the downside

... next logical target *1975, then taking *2000/*2015

... with that anyone can win in this market

kind regards

[ananda77]

...looks Iike the Fed has hit the 'pause' button today
...if that continues, we'll be in a correction at least down to *1920
Good - finally an opportunity to deploy "some" more cash

kind regards

[winner69]

Only another decent day away from 2000

Well done Janet, keep up the good work

They will be pleased

[ananda77]

Hi Hoop

..no doubt I remain bullish (superbullish) but..

My question -if I may- how long was the longest VIX period of extreme low volitility as of current before it picked up again? Lets say since 1929

kind regards

[ananda77]

...some people suggest that the VIX LOW *10.36_20 june 2014, the lowest VIX since 2006/2007, marked THE LOW for the current bull run. Consequently, an increase in volatility is expected.
The ensuing force will entirely depend on the strong *1940 support level. The up-tick will be a graduate process initially
So far as the Option and Cash inflowing liquidity goes -no sign of trouble-

However, there is a negative divergence developing between the NYA and inflowing Cash liquidity

...its a good idea to cover potential downside and a spiking VIX and would remember markets tend to be very bullish up to the 4 july 2014

[winner69]

S&P earnings at an all time high

Courtesy of chartoftheday.com
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20140702.htm?H

Notice how every 5 years or so 20%-25% of previous 5 years profits are written (impairments, disasters and all that sort of stuff) of causing huge earnings decline. GFC an exception .... in some cases life time of earnings written off.

[winner69]

Bugger ......didn't get to 2000 in time for Thanksgiving

Oh well .....another week next week and alls fine on the Western Front

Zillions of new jobs but no economic growth ....does bode well for the future though

And some guy said the DOW is going to hit 20000 by Xmas .....whoopee

And look at the VIX might be below 10 in a day or two

Things sure are looking sweet as

[winner69]

Apparently the only net buyer of stocks are the companies themselves. Drives the price up so bigger pay packets for managers. Highest level of buying since 2007 .....does that sound alarm bels?

It's all just one big game eh ..... corporatacy at its worst .....when is the next Occupy gathering? Must go

http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post--this-is-the-markets-biggest-driver

[winner69]

VIX at about 10 means not much volatility expected over next 30 days

Implies market up or down about 3% over that period

Not much but enough to get the S&P over 2,000 - after all trend is up and there no 'fear' in the market place

I reckon next week .....Whoopee

[ananda77]

...some people suggest that the VIX LOW *10.36_20 june 2014, the lowest VIX since 2006/2007, marked THE LOW for the current bull run. Consequently, an increase in volatility is expected.
The ensuing force will entirely depend on the strong *1940 support level. The up-tick will be a graduate process initially
So far as the Option and Cash inflowing liquidity goes -no sign of trouble-

However, there is a negative divergence developing between the NYA and inflowing Cash liquidity

...its a good idea to cover potential downside and a spiking VIX and would remember markets tend to be very bullish up to the 4 july 2014

SPX 500 *2000 will not be easy to crack....assuming now the market on its way to test its *1945 support...

kind regards

[ananda77]

SPX 500 *2000 will not be easy to crack....assuming now the market on its way to test its *1945 support...

kind regards

...so far the SPX 500 moved back into the *1950_1975 resistance zone -almost effortlessly taken out leading up to the 4th July holiday- Today, the index lamely bounced off *1959. Assuming now the least resistance is down to the strong *!940_*1945 support zone with *1950 an interim possible stopping point

kind regards

[Hoop]

A77, hope you're right. Methinks people are crunching the numbers on the recent news, e.g. employment stats, and the likelihood of a correction just jumped big time (until earnings come in and justify the high'ish PERs of course.)

Belg don't you assume Mr Market has anticipated the near future earnings estimates and has factored this in already?

FYI...So far only 2 out of the 4 signals in my Correction Indicator have fired..need all 4

[ananda77]

A77, hope you're right. Methinks people are crunching the numbers on the recent news, e.g. employment stats, and the likelihood of a correction just jumped big time (until earnings come in and justify the high'ish PERs of course.)


Belg don't you assume Mr Market has anticipated the near future earnings estimates and has factored this in already?

FYI...So far only 2 out of the 4 signals in my Correction Indicator have fired..need all 4

Market Comments:

Steve Eisman closed his fund because he felt that investing on fundamentals was no longer a viable investment philosophy today. At the same time, while QE money injections dominate the market, many professionals still belief that "tomorrow" will be the day when growth and profits are correlated with the market's movements once again.
Reality is that QE money and low overall market volume work well together to keep pushing the market up. That will continue until the power to do so is no longer effective and no one knows how long that could take ... it could take up until just after election time this year, or it could end when Institutional Investors say "enough is enough"

kind regards

[ananda77]

Mr Mrkt likes the Feds notes today.

That 4.3 trillion tho, what to do? Methinks, as it is only a few bytes on a few hard drive somewhere they'll just leave it where it is. ;)

...question remains: who is Mr. Market or is it Mrs. Market these days

..as far as option and cash liquidity inflows concerned, the market again pulled back from the brink. However, not knowing the latest stats until tonight, the negative divergence between NYA and inflows still remains. Inflows themselves downtrending

kind regards

[Hoop]

Mrs Market has announced after all these years she will reduce the supply of party pills and stop supplying altogether after October ...just when a Portuguese bank plays party pooper to its creditors
Nice timing Janet..Wall St is going to feel very unloved tomorrow.

[winner69]

Dr Doom says he's expecting a 30% decline (crash) ... I think he's wrong. It'll only be 29% ;)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101823798?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Che adline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=101823798%7CMarket%20will%20crash,%20just%20d

30% not a crash ..... 50% plus a crash

You reckon 29% .... maybe 31% and Dr Doom will be wrong again

But in Snakk talk 30% is nearly 50% anyway

[Hoop]

Dr Doom says he's expecting a 30% decline (crash) ... I think he's wrong. It'll only be 29% ;)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101823798?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Che adline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=101823798%7CMarket%20will%20crash,%20just%20d

Market will crash, just don't know catalyst: Marc FaberButterfly Effect ??

[ananda77]

...so far the SPX 500 moved back into the *1950_1975 resistance zone -almost effortlessly taken out leading up to the 4th July holiday- Today, the index lamely bounced off *1959. Assuming now the least resistance is down to the strong *!940_*1945 support zone with *1950 an interim possible stopping point

kind regards

...inflowing liquidity levels remained positive but are weakening throughout the last few days. In essence, Mrs. Market still in control.
The extreme danger signs are solely coming from traditional, technical set-ups, which iMHO are more snd more useless.

Nevertheless, its a risky market proposition current and am comfortable with protecting a large part of profit at all times.
However, unless liquidity inflows move out of positive zone, the trading set-up remains unchanged. E.G. overall short_ long cover unchanged with creaming off the top based on trading differences in international indexes

kind regards

[Hoop]

...inflowing liquidity levels remained positive but are weakening throughout the last few days. In essence, Mrs. Market still in control.
The extreme danger signs are solely coming from traditional, technical set-ups, which iMHO are more snd more useless........


:confused:...technical set ups?? ...you lost me Ananda.........Not hard to do, I blame my problem on my lack of IQ genes:blink:

[ananda77]

:confused:...technical set ups?? ...you lost me Ananda.........Not hard to do, I blame my problem on my lack of IQ genes:blink:

sorry Hoop most likely my mistake

Like according to the NYA 2012 - 2014 price channel or the long term (yearly price) expanding wedge of the Dow, this market is super risky and upside ptential is extremely limited

But llook at the VIX - no worries at all - and no matter what, liquidity inflows remain positive

kind regards

[Hoop]

Forgetting about media noise and stepping back to take in a bigger view sees the S&P500 for what it is Ananda....a runaway bull market ....The chart below needs no squiggly lines, its a solid uptrending index so no problems with the medium/long term technical side of things..
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=%24spx&uf=0&type=64&size=4&sid=3377&style=320&freq=2&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=12&rand=1071428891&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=5&maval=50%20200&lf=2&lf2=8&lf3=1024&height=981&width=1045&mocktick=1

However, although one can argue with the fundamental aspects of whether the market is grossly overvalued or not, it is actually Market physics which is starting to show the problem ..there is just not enough money left in the system to keep the market momentum going.... It is all invested..At the moment it just doesn't pay to be out of the market.
The demise of a bull market cycle is usually due to its own overwhelming success..eh?

Then you have Financial physics playing a role and having a compounding affect on the Market...the tightening of Monetary and Fiscal policies adding to the woes of not enough available money...a double whammy effect
The price one pays when the economy booms..eh?
The chart below tells the story...if history repeats then there are black clouds forming on the horizon.. US Equity bust around October with US recession next year??????? or will it be "different this time" with the "successful" taste of regulation & unconventional QE the FED would step back in and warp the markets more so...
http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2014/7/11/22392-14051299649160433-David-White_origin.png

[winner69]

Next week must be the week that 2000 is reached ......wow

[winner69]

Next week must be the week that 2000 is reached ......wow

Tomorrow be the day ....wow 2000

[winner69]

Interesting stat on the S&P500

Three months ago there were 498 stocks above 200MA and 2 below
Yesterday there were 387 above and 115 below


And the number of stocks reaching year highs was 25 today compared to 204 three months ago

Sign of general weakness?

I have no idea

[Hoop]

Interesting stat on the S&P500

Three months ago there were 498 stocks above 200MA and 2 below
Yesterday there were 387 above and 115 below


And the number of stocks reaching year highs was 25 today compared to 204 three months ago

Sign of general weakness?

I have no idea

Yep...68% of stocks on NYSE above MA200 (see NYA200R chart below) ..hasn't been this low since the weakness during April - May 2014.

My correction indicator triggered 3 out of 4 correction warning signals during the bull hype when the S&P500 was making new record highs..strange.. huh?... Fewer and fewer stocks keeping the index rising is not a good sign (divergence)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50030072014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50030072014.png.html)

[Hoop]

WARNING ....GET OUT

My Correction Indicator has now triggered all the necessary 4 indicators to complete the correction warning....The last to go was the EMA50 this morning.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50031072014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50031072014.png.html)

[noodles]

WARNING ....GET OUT

My Correction Indicator has now triggered all the necessary 4 indicators to complete the correction warning....The last to go was the EMA50 this morning.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50031072014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50031072014.png.html)

Hoop, recent breaches of the EMA50 having been decent buying opportunities. Why not this time? What are the other 3 indicators?
What confirmations would you look at to go long again?

Always appreciate your input, noodles.

[winner69]

Hoop, do you have an advance/decline chart for the us markets

Would say an increasing number of stocks going down?

[Hoop]

Hoop, recent breaches of the EMA50 having been decent buying opportunities. Why not this time? What are the other 3 indicators?
What confirmations would you look at to go long again?

Always appreciate you input, noodles.

Hi Noodles..
Last question first..confirmations to long ..the usual charted stuff + TA indicators....My sentiment indicator is built for one purpose ...to reliably forecast corrections...It does not and not designed to forecast recovery..

The sentiment indicator is not really mine..A dude who's name escapes me for the moment wrote an article on Seeking Alpha back in 2011 about some sentiment indicators having an excellent record at forecasting weaknesses. He mentioned the percentage of companies on the indexes e.g S&P500 with MA200 below their priceline (bulls) and those with MA200 above their pricelines (bears)..the forever changing state of flux conditions (changing uncertainty) was deemed by the Author as a way to measure investor sentiment. The easiest way to measure a charted history of investor sentiment is applying relevant TA indicators ..

After reading that article I surfed the net studied many (50ish in number) sentiment indicators, trialed a few, and narrowed it down to one which by coincidence happened to be one of the most simplest there were...Just goes to show..KISS works the best ..huh?........With this one I started 30 months ago trialing it with the S&P500 on ST under this thread for all to see how it resulted... I have tweaked the indicators a little bit and made it more sensitive using EMA rather than MA..

So far the indicator has not failed...Actual fact its success is its failing. It picks up corrections (sometimes days before they actually happen) that can turn out to be very shallow. During the last stage of the bull cycle most corrections are very shallow..This to many investors it may see it as a cry wolf indicator.. but this is a common problem with most TA indicators during the last stages of a cycle as they trigger an event that quickly peters out due to investor irrationality (increasing greed [complacency] or fear [panic])..This perceived "cry wolf failure" is a mirage...but it does convince many to change their thinking into presuming that it is now a new world order and that it is all different this time..(or so my kids keep telling me:p)....

Us old timers know that when this "Its all different now" scenario is operating, you don't throw away all the old tried and true TA indicators you abide by them even more, as the cycle is in its last rites, the only problem is the timing of when it will happen as the Mr Market stays irrational longer than we all think....

The newer investors and some old hands always say they will exit when the cycle turns or get out close to the top....but when the time comes they don't!! because they have learn't to ignore the obvious...We all know this cycle looks toppy..and a "normal" correction is due to happen but after a series of cry wolf and continuous steep upward climb without a decent correction for 34 months now, no one is willing to leave the market in fear of missing out...it is in these types of scenarios when the next warning does arrive it will ignored..Even if some don't ignore, that fear of missing out will tempt them to dip buy during the correction as they assume its still party time..When the correction or reversal keeps happening, the rosy glasses are put on, denial sets in and the excuses flow out.

Noodles...This breed of Sentiment indicator posted here is made up of 2 charts the NYA200r using 3 TA indicators (KST know sure thing ROC rate of change and EMA50) and the SPX using just the EMA50.. Have a look at yesterdays post#1629 those 2 charts is it......the vertical dotted lines are the previous times the indicator has triggered all 4 and triggered a correction warning..There's been 4 and now 5 counting todays... if still interested to see how well it works, go back and reread the posts on this thread This indicator I have posted has been trialed on this thread for 2.5 years now and the indicator has proven its self as reliable... so when I get time and learn how to automatically colour code a chart program I will probably just produce one simple chart similar to that of P's MSI chart


Is today's warning going to show another unhealthy shallow correction as been the case for 34 months now...or is it going to be a normal 10-15% type ....or a cyclic reversal?

[Hoop]

Hoop, do you have an advance/decline chart for the us markets

Would say an increasing number of stocks going down?
Ummm...Of the top of my head I would yes there is an increasing number of stocks going down (started beginning of July before the records started toppling)..The volume figures forcing up the overall number of company's prices to that high point (late June, early July) would be interesting too..I don't think the volume was that flash..

I will look in amongst my digital junk to see if I can find anything of relevance..Winner

PS..
Winner you didn't paste the chart of the Day (30th July)..:).....Using historical odds...August doesn't look great ..eh? :(
<a href="http://www.chartoftheday.com/">Chart of the Day</a>
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20140730.gif

[noodles]

Is today's warning going to show another unhealthy shallow correction as been the case for 34 months now...or is it going to be a normal 10-15% type ....or a cyclic reversal?
Thanks for the detailed response.

Of course no one can predict what the outcome of the current correction will be. It is really just down to probabilities. Assuming we are still in a secular bear, I think we can start to guess some probabilities.

Scenario.1 We have already seen the high on the S&P500 for the next 2-3 years. Expect a long painful pe contraction for the next 18 months. Probability 15%
Scenario.2 10-15% correction. A bit of a shake out and pain for 3 month before a new high in late 2014. Probability 35%
Scenario.3 A shallow 5% correction at most. The market reaches 2000 before October. Probability 50%

[winner69]

Found an Advance Decline Chart Hoop ..... $NYAD

Wonder if one exists for NZX somewhere

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$NYAD

[noodles]

An interesting article by Eric Parnell. He reckons this current correction is different from the ones we have seen recently.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2366985-why-thursdays-sell-off-matters?v=1406843773

[noodles]

Good article. In summary, the 2% decline did NOT show any movement of money into other asset classes. I.e. sellers stayed in cash.
But now it is all back to normal...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2371665-the-good-news-from-a-bad-friday

[noodles]

We'll see, Noodles. We'll see. ;)
You can easily profit from your conviction by shorting the S&P500. For me that is a much better option than exiting the market completely.

On the NZX, it is the larger companies that have been most affected by the recent bout of nervousness. Think FBU, AIR, and SKT. There has been no fundamental reason to justify these declines. I suspect it is overseas funds bringing their money home. The smaller end of the NZX50 has remained relatively unscathed.

[noodles]

Bubble or not. I found the following article quite balanced. Also talks about shorting(active defense) or reducing exposure
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.cz/2014/06/bubble-bubble-toil-and-trouble-costs.html

[winner69]

Bubble or not. I found the following article quite balanced. Also talks about shorting(active defense) or reducing exposure
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.cz/2014/06/bubble-bubble-toil-and-trouble-costs.html

Homework noodles

Can you pease summarise he professors article

[noodles]

Homework noodles

Can you pease summarise he professors article

What I took out of it was that we are over-valued in some metrics (price to earnings), but under-valued on others(Equity Premium).

[Hoop]

Winner......I don't know if you receive email from Chartwatchers ..if you don't then check out their NASDAQ100 & SP500 AD lines trigger signals article (http://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/). Scroll 20% down the page to find the article..

.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ..............................

To Noodles and Others...you all may either love or hate TA people... but one thing they do very well is alert to all other groups (including the common and largest group, the Fundamentalists) when an unusual change or divergence has just occurred within the networking environment (macro and micro) surrounding various markets...Unfortunately, for this very reason TAists can be cannon fodder ..FA is a lagging discipline and assume all sudden shorter term market actions the same way..."noise!!!"...therefore with any sudden potential bad news warnings mentioned they tend to deny and shoot the messenger.....

You may have read my often "All the ducks have lined up in a row" quotes over the past years on ST...What the hell are ducks ? I hear you say?

You don't hear much about each individual duck ..The Media don't mention the various duck species as they fail to understand the networked complexity themselves and don't want the threat of losing readers/being criticised ..So..Media don't bother to identify a duck as they see them as individually unimportant and to the lesser educated media unrelated to anything important..and above all totally boring subject to write about...

.....which brings the question When is a duck or not a duck?.................without lots of time to spare the media can ill afford to find out...The end result of all this Media information/disinformation overload is the fact that the readers only get to see a small part of the duck story and constantly see only one or two most common ducks mentioned (e.g VIX,US$ etc)...or worse seeing a duck that's not a duck (a writers personal opinions... and opinions in general plus generated false logic).

Another major problem....Mentioning only the common ducks the media creates a false impression to its readers that these couple of ducks are the major factors affecting the greater scheme of all things, whereas in reality it is the combination of all of them...The power of the whole...
How often have you heard an investor say, "If a I had known this was going to happen I wouldn't been in the market" or "How unlucky am I?... No one could've seen this happening?"..

Just how many ducks are there out there is still unknown as the intire global system is made up of near infinite factors..Thanks to the Industrial Revolution we live in, data accumulation, the means to process this information, and the ability to communicate to the general public the results has exponentially expanded to give us some sort of knowledge to the law and order of how this gigantic global gearbox behaves...thereby improving our ability to forecast future happenings...

To find various ducks.. Chartwatchers for example use their charting tools but their major statistical chart weapon is historical correlation to comfirm a duck status......the more ducks found the better the forecasting..

For us Plebs not privy to the higher order of things and want to make an investment bob..we have to dredge all media to find the many hidden ducks from our lowly viewed postion...Chartwatchers is also media and so we have to constantly search the web and other forms of communication.

So... it was a joy to this duck hunter when The Chartwatcher email arrived this morning ...wow look at all those ducks....
Correlated data include :...
VIX
AD Signals
Energy sector charted data with correlations
Material sector charted data with correlations
$US Dollar charted data with correlations
Commodites sector charted data incl oil gold silver copper and Lumber...with correlations
Investor (behaviour) decision point charted data
SMA 50 breaks on Equity markets
Russell 200 chart behaviour as a leading indicator with correlations
Home construction sector charted data with correlations
10 Treasury yield rates with correlations
Software Industry sector charted data with correlations

Hmmm .....Is there a duck line forming?

[Hoop]

Winner......I don't know if you receive email from Chartwatchers ..if you don't then check out their NASDAQ100 & SP500 AD lines trigger signals article (http://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/). Scroll 20% down the page to find the article..

.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ..............................

To Noodles and Others...you all may either love or hate TA people... but one thing they do very well is alert to all other groups (including the common and largest group, the Fundamentalists) when an unusual change or divergence has just occurred within the networking environment (macro and micro) surrounding various markets...Unfortunately, for this very reason TAists can be cannon fodder ..FA is a lagging discipline and assume all sudden shorter term market actions the same way..."noise!!!"...therefore with any sudden potential bad news warnings mentioned they tend to deny and shoot the messenger.....

You may have read my often "All the ducks have lined up in a row" quotes over the past years on ST...What the hell are ducks ? I hear you say?

You don't hear much about each individual duck ..The Media don't mention the various duck species as they fail to understand the networked complexity themselves and don't want the threat of losing readers/being criticised ..So..Media don't bother to identify a duck as they see them as individually unimportant and to the lesser educated media unrelated to anything important..and above all totally boring subject to write about...

.....which brings the question When is a duck or not a duck?.................without lots of time to spare the media can ill afford to find out...The end result of all this Media information/disinformation overload is the fact that the readers only get to see a small part of the duck story and constantly see only one or two most common ducks mentioned (e.g VIX,US$ etc)...or worse seeing a duck that's not a duck (a writers personal opinions... and opinions in general plus generated false logic).

Another major problem....Mentioning only the common ducks the media creates a false impression to its readers that these couple of ducks are the major factors affecting the greater scheme of all things, whereas in reality it is the combination of all of them...The power of the whole...
How often have you heard an investor say, "If a I had known this was going to happen I wouldn't been in the market" or "How unlucky am I?... No one could've seen this happening?"..

Just how many ducks are there out there is still unknown as the intire global system is made up of near infinite factors..Thanks to the Industrial Revolution we live in, data accumulation, the means to process this information, and the ability to communicate to the general public the results has exponentially expanded to give us some sort of knowledge to the law and order of how this gigantic global gearbox behaves...thereby improving our ability to forecast future happenings...

To find various ducks.. Chartwatchers for example use their charting tools but their major statistical chart weapon is historical correlation to comfirm a duck status......the more ducks found the better the forecasting..

For us Plebs not privy to the higher order of things and want to make an investment bob..we have to dredge all media to find the many hidden ducks from our lowly viewed postion...Chartwatchers is also media and so we have to constantly search the web and other forms of communication.

So... it was a joy to this duck hunter when The Chartwatcher email arrived this morning ...wow look at all those ducks....
Correlated data include :...
VIX
AD Signals
Energy sector charted data with correlations
Material sector charted data with correlations
$US Dollar charted data with correlations
Commodites sector charted data incl oil gold silver copper and Lumber...with correlations
Investor (behaviour) decision point charted data
SMA 50 breaks on Equity markets
Russell 200 chart behaviour as a leading indicator with correlations
Home construction sector charted data with correlations
10 Treasury yield rates with correlations
Software Industry sector charted data with correlations

Hmmm .....Is there a duck line forming?

[Hoop]

Um ... Hoop ... With that last post, can I respectfully say that you sound like an economist? ;)

My advice? If in doubt - get out. Fast.

Personally...No doubt mate ..This year has seen me being slowly one by one kicked out by Mr Market (due to my strategy discipline) The taxman will be happy with me this year.

PS... not an Economist and not a Weather Forecaster neither ;)

[Hoop]

My above post is more relevant to the NZX market where I'm more bearish as I personally think (chart-wise) the NZX50 index is further advanced in its Bull Market Cycle than that of the S&P 500 index.

The S&P500 Bull's demise(historically speaking) is overdue, therefore a turning (reversal) from Bull to bear cycle at any point in time from now on would not surprise me in the least....Reversals and Corrections start off indistinguible and only manifest themselves as time goes on.. the correction happening now is inconclusive so far...

Remember it is all drama atm ...in the long term aspect atm its a blip hardly seen on the long term chart (see below)..This could change of course but will it??
As I said previously the change will occur when the ducks line up in a row....The odd duck has lined up others haven't.... so ...a cycle reversal isn't indicated yet its too early to tell...I personally have no doubt because I believe the Wall St is still in doubt but as things stand as of last friday it still seems to be a bull market correction..

Whats a Duck?...

I got asked this question yesterday as the person googled it and got nonsense out of the answer Google gave...Well organised..wow great answer...
OK ..let me explain ..I've used this ducks lined up in a row method for so long that I forgot that it was my personal methodology and I named it a duck..It seems in the real world no one has named these types of correlation indicators as ducks so until this moment Google has no reference to my duck methodology....This type of correlation methodology is commonly used but not the duck name.......Sorry about that..

Actually well organised is close..What I class as a duck is the mixing (organising) of event variables and find a correlations with what I want e.g the Equity variable (S&P,DOW,etc)....My purpose is to create these ducks to increase the power of forecasting the DOW/S&P500..the more ducks, the more power of the forecasting.

I received an email received this morning about Consumer Confidence and unemployment rate correlations .....I decided to overlay the DOW on to it to see if it could be a duck....The DOW did loosely correlate therefore I have created another duck to watch...At the moment my overlay charts are static and up dating them is time consuming..however hopefully soon thanks to Google Charts via Google developers (https://google-developers.appspot.com/chart/interactive/docs/quick_start) I may soon have all my ducks self updating...I have done this already with all the listed companies on the NZX using a self updating spread sheet.

My newly created duck (below) as do all ducks make visible information which is usually caste into the shadows due to the every day by day noise..Careful.. only to look at the trends on the chart as the DOW is not to scale

First Glimpse chart observations
1....Day by day drama distracts....so far this latest drop is a hardly visible blip on the long term chart...so no worries yet?
2....When consumer confidence (inverted) is growing and unemployment rate is falling the DOW is usually in the wall of worry phase (bull market cycle)
3....When consumer confidence (CC) (inverted) is at its greatest /unemployment rate (UR) at its lowest the Dow is usually near its top (Final phase of the Bull Market Cycle)
4....Reversals often see a recession and affect DOW
5...Since the last 45 years (charted time period) A recession hasn't commenced when the CC & UR have been this high up on the chart
6...Cycles seen on the chart don't seem to be affected by the FED
7...Don't rely on one duck only..false alarms with this duck appeared in 1985 and 1995.


So what are we looking for on this duck chart at this period of time...A hint of reversal (duck moving into a line)...As we see at this moment in time there is no hint (Yet!!) of this duck lining up to threaten the life of the old DOW (& S&P500) Bull

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOWconsumeroverlayDUCK-1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOWconsumeroverlayDUCK-1.png.html)

Reposted on the Goldilocks and 3 bears thread..future stuff re Corrections etc I will post it there

[winner69]

I found this interesting (Hussman). Fundamentals don't need to change to cause a crash.


“Abrupt market weakness is generally the result of low risk premiums being pressed higher. There need not be any collapse in earnings for a deep market decline to occur. The stock market dropped by half in 1973-74 even while S&P 500 earnings grew by over 50%. The 1987 crash was associated with no loss in earnings. Fundamentals don't have to change overnight. There is in fact zero correlation between year-over-year changes in earnings and year-over-year changes in the S&P 500. Rather, low and expanding risk premiums are at the root of nearly every abrupt market loss. One of the best indications of the speculative willingness of investors is the ‘uniformity’ of positive market action across a broad range of internals. Probably the most important aspect of last week's decline was the decisive negative shift in these measures.”

[noodles]

Another duck?
http://disciplinedinvesting.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/equity-putcall-ratio-spikes-to-above-10.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed:+blogspot/KfQp+(The+Blog+of+HORAN+Capital+Advisors)

[winner69]

Another duck?
http://disciplinedinvesting.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/equity-putcall-ratio-spikes-to-above-10.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed:+blogspot/KfQp+(The+Blog+of+HORAN+Capital+Advisors)

Phew - so we all fine for tonight and the rest of week.

A couple of real decent days and S&P500 will get to 2000 .....good one

Thanks for finding that

[ananda77]

... Fed stabiliser at work -
there is no bigger bang for the buck than a rising equity market (A. G)
kind regards

[winner69]

Ducks aren't the problem, its icebergs

http://www.bonnerandpartners.com/this-market-is-a-titanic-in-search-of-an-iceberg/#.U9_yE5EayK1

[Hoop]

Ducks aren't the problem, its icebergs

http://www.bonnerandpartners.com/this-market-is-a-titanic-in-search-of-an-iceberg/#.U9_yE5EayK1

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/aa-1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/aa-1.png.html)

[winner69]

Phew - so we all fine for tonight and the rest of week.

A couple of real decent days and S&P500 will get to 2000 .....good one

Thanks for finding that

What heck going on

Now 2000 seems a bridge too far

Only another bad day to 1900 .......jez hope 1900 holds

[winner69]

At least the S&P has a green arrow today

[winner69]

Least it didn't go below 1900 ..good sign

[ananda77]

Friday morning before market Open: iquidity inflows had improved considerably by Thursday end of trading. Some positive fund inflows from large depositors signalled commitment to stop the market rout.
While positive Fed inflows Thursday were taken out by sheer force of selling, Fridays Fed inflows together with the large fund deposits pushed markets back into positive territory

kind regards

[okay]

Hi. I came across this article today, and thought it might be of interest to others.
It talks about one of Buffets ways of measuring where the market is at, and has a few interesting graphs.

Also enjoyed the name of the author, Doug Short.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Market-Cap-to-GDP.php

[ananda77]

Friday morning before market Open: iquidity inflows had improved considerably by Thursday end of
trading. Some positive fund inflows from large depositors signalled commitment to stop the market rout.
While positive Fed inflows Thursday were taken out by sheer force of selling, Fridays Fed inflows together with the large fund deposits pushed markets back into positive territory

kind regards

... large fund deposits confirmed by Al Cashing.
Further, 7,2b junk funds redeemed, some of which gone into government bonds = caution
... but bulk of Cash into the equity markets - small caps outperform currently
... anyway, in front of *1940_*1950 resistance, better be patient

kind regards

[winner69]

There's an old saying in the USA - race riots in the summer; stock market crashes in the fall

History repeating?

[winner69]

S&P500 to reach the magical 2,000 overnight?

Whoopee ....long may the merry go round keep going round and round

Good work Janet et al

[Hoop]

19th July...
Next week must be the week that 2000 is reached ......wow

6th August...
What heck going on

Now 2000 seems a bridge too far

Only another bad day to 1900 .......jez hope 1900 holds
There's an old saying in the USA - race riots in the summer; stock market crashes in the fall

History repeating?

History repeating?... or... Is it following a script being played out from the writings "There and Back Again" - A Hobbit's Tale by Bilbo Baggins ??
S&P500 closed at 1992...
2000 tomorrow you reckon Winner

Beware of the Dragon ????:mellow:

[winner69]

Probability of a crash is getting higher by the day using this methodology ....about 70% now


An arbitrary crash increment “C” say 25-30% of market value, a finite horizon h (in years), and the non-cyclical trajectory of the log-periodic bubble B (excluding the cosine term). Then p(crash) is the solution to the no-arbitrage condition p(crash)*C + (1-p(crash))*h*dB/dt = 0.

[winner69]

Mr Somette and his log time periodic advances and finite time singularities is an interesting study

[Hoop]

Mr Somette and his log time periodic advances and finite time singularities is an interesting study

Do you mean Didier Sornette ?

I've bookmarked this guy for some weekend reading....

[winner69]

Do you mean Didier Sornette ?

I've bookmarked this guy for some weekend reading....

Yes sorry mate

[winner69]

Watch this as a prelude to reading stuff. Had been looking at this stuff for a while but this talk is very good. The maths is pretty geek stuff

http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financ ial_crisis#t-654776

Moosie better not watch as its about knowing bubbles before they burst

[winner69]

Whoopee, the magical 2000 been hit

The way it's going be 2500 sooner than later ....then 3000

Hope these log time periodic advances don't lead to a finite singularity

Manat got to keep it going up to the next US election

[winner69]

This time it is different. Then 2500 is coming soon

http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/shiller/

Was written end of last year but still relevant

Quote: For most of history, the Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio (CAPE) oscillated in a pseudo sine wave around a long-term (130 year) average of 15.30. It spent 55% percent of the time above the average, and 45% of the time below–a reasonable result for a metric that allegedly mean reverts. Since 1990, however, the metric has only spent 2% of the time below its historical average–98% of the time above.


And he goes on to say that it reverts to the mean only when wars or financial disasters happen

[winner69]

Yes that 3000 is coming

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/morgan-stanley-sp-500-3000-2014-9

A bit wimpish call though ......will be a lot faster than they say

[ananda77]

It is with some regret that I can not continue to post on ShareTrader.

Sharetrader administrators have become the sole judge and jury on political thinking. This close to the election?

I have asked Vince to remove all my posts.

Many kind regards to all those to whom critical thinking is a paramount part of being who we are.

... definitely sorry to see U go Belgarion
All the Best and lots of success

[elZorro]

It is with some regret that I can not continue to post on ShareTrader.

Sharetrader administrators have become the sole judge and jury on political thinking. This close to the election?

I have asked Vince to remove all my posts.

Many kind regards to all those to whom critical thinking is a paramount part of being who we are.

Belgarion, please think again about this, many of your posts are outstanding in quality, and the political threads are decaying into neo-liberal and conservative babble in your absence. Time is on our side, it'll be a different story in the next election, and it might not be three years, if National get back in.

[winner69]

S&P500 hit all time high of 2019 before closing down at 2010

This guy reckons that's the top for the year

I reckon 2050, if not 2100, by Xmas but what he heck do I know in comparison to these anonymous gurus who uses a non de plume based on the 'The Great Bear of Wall Street'

Stock Market Blogger 'Jesse Livermore' Is Calling The Top
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/jesse-livermore-calls-2014-top-2014-9

[okay]

Article heading: Uh oh the credit rating agencies are up to their old tricks again.

Just a general read for those interested. The guy is saying the system hasn't changed much. Wall St only needs one credit rating agency to rate a bond, so the banks go "ratings shopping", and unsurprisingly the agency who gives the best rating gets the biz.

" One way to tell is that Fitch has only been hired for four of the 29 subprime auto ABS deals this year, after telling issuers that the vast majority of bonds did not deserve AAA ratings."

The immoral of the story, if its "cr*p" put 3 AAA's in the middle if you want the biz.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/09/16/uh-oh-the-credit-rating-agencies-are-up-to-their-old-tricks-again/

[Hoop]

Rising wedge + falling Volume = your guess :)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50019092014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50019092014.png.html)

[Hoop]

My overall sentiment indicator made up of 4 key indicators to show advanced warnings of a possible correction is again showing high caution

Last warning was end July

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NYA200R23092014-1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NYA200R23092014-1.png.html)

[winner69]

Jesse Livermore now denying he called the top last Friday

[winner69]

Hoop - the Russell 2000 broken as well, after 5 1/2 years of going up

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20140924.htm?H

[noodles]

My overall sentiment indicator made up of 4 key indicators to show advanced warnings of a possible correction is again showing high caution

Last warning was end July

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NYA200R23092014-1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NYA200R23092014-1.png.html)

Are you out yet Hoop? 4th signal hit. High Prob correction on the way?

[Hoop]

Are you out yet Hoop? 4th signal hit. High Prob correction on the way?

S&P dropped to 1966 -32 -1.62% and yep the GET OUT signal was triggered last night (NZ time) creating a high probability of a correction.....now we have to wait and see whether this is going to be another piddly-assed correction or a more "normal" 10-15% garden variety one (or worse, a cyclic reversal)...so, each day from now on will give us another small piece of info together with America media drama..A bit like a soap opera..huh?

Noodles ..Haven't had much exposure to Wall St for some time now ..due to $US devaluing (now ended?) ..but I always keep the finger on the USA pulse as I've found it prudent to keep tabs on the mental state of the Elephant in the same room as you.

The last few years most of my attention + money has been in NZ stocks..a no brainer really ...NZX rising just as good as Wall St + an appreciating NZ$ to boot...but all good things must come to an end...eh?.... NZ$ topped out? .but so far in the NZX there are many stocks singing to a different tune and holding up well compared to those Globally..so I'm still in until TA kicks me out or better opportunities arise...

[ananda77]

... the *1973/*1970 pivot taken out on the *Close suggesting another test in the *1950/*1940 support

... running beside the current sell-off is a 'Dow theory Buy signal' (Dow fresh all time high with IMMEDIATE TRANNY support - a very rare occasion indeed)

So careful out there, this bull has shaken off weak hands many times

... am running this sell-off weighted to the long side with plenty of Cash buying the down side

kind regards

[winner69]

S&P500 hit all time high of 2019 before closing down at 2010

This guy reckons that's the top for the year

I reckon 2050, if not 2100, by Xmas but what he heck do I know in comparison to these anonymous gurus who uses a non de plume based on the 'The Great Bear of Wall Street'

Stock Market Blogger 'Jesse Livermore' Is Calling The Top
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/jesse-livermore-calls-2014-top-2014-9

10 days later S&P down 3.5% ....was Jesse a guru with that call

Then again typical log periodic advances shoe more abrupt ups an down as it climbs so could be back to another record of 2050 in a few weeks.

So no worries?

Did read that more than half S&P stocks below their 200MA

[Hoop]

....Did read that more than half S&P stocks below their 200MA

There are 47% stocks on New York Stock Exchange above their MA200 yesterday so when Wall st closes today I assume there will be less....this is normal with Bull Market Corrections
The last time over half of the stocks where below their MA200 was nearly 2 years ago when there was a small 7% correction ...just goes to show that Wall St hasn't had a decent correction for at least 3 years...

That last decent Bull Market Correction was that Big Mother (-20%) prolonged 6 month "Cycle worry" period back in 2011..you can see the end of that period on the extreme left side of the chart where only about 10% of stocks were above there MA200.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/a-2.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/a-2.png.html)

[winner69]

Typical log periodic behaviour

On way back to another all time high

[winner69]

Shucks ....that was a bad day on US markets

Backdown to where it was a coupe of months ago

Was Jesse right after all .....long way down from 2020 is the S&P500

[winner69]

What's going on Hoop

Down 1% plus ...then up 1% plus ....and now almost capitulation?

[skid]

Everyone who thought they were in the clear yesterday walked in today and got punched in the face," said Michael Block, chief strategist at Rhino Trading Partners.


fromm cnn money site

another quote--

"the only thing Im currently bullish on is volatility at this stage''

[Hoop]

What's going on Hoop

Down 1% plus ...then up 1% plus ....and now almost capitulation?

Seems like the dipsters may have finally got their arses kicked....eh?

Most of the correction warnings and other fundamentals from market theory have cried wolf these last couple of years... so, human nature says to ignore liars ... and the dipsters did just that and were well rewarded.....Life's a bit like this, doing all the wrong things and being rewarded for it..eh?

Its always after the big crash, we hear from the so-called Genius's that the market was well overvalued and all the signs were there,... "so what were you thinking????? Why did you get clobbered by the market??? you are an experienced enough investor not to be caught up in it at the time...so why why why???"...


When the market is roaring ahead and ignoring all the Laws of Market Physics ...do you really want to watch from the sidelines?..especially if you are a funds manager..eh?

And if you are managing funds and "all in" reaping the rewards of the roaring market, yet, knowing deep down the market is crazily overvalued...do you tell all your clients in a newsletter to sell?....No of course not, because it will take weeks months? to divest the fund..so until the divesting is complete you keep telling everyone how good the market..eh?...

Only when the divestment is complete it is safe to tell your investor clients your news...then short the market...eh? ..Carl Icahn has always been a Media bad boy but at least he's not afraid to tell his story...even though that story implies he should not be trusted....but he's not a Investor Billionaire for nothing...and these people get a lot of trusting clients...so as an untrusting fellow I ask the question what is his motive in coming out in the media now with his correction opinion?? (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-market-correction-is-definitely-coming-carl-icahn-2014-10-09)

For these answers maybe we should go back to basics and remember the fables we listened to back in Primary School... I'm not kidding!!!!

Fables are so valuable, as they are written by very wise people (ie Aesop) who knew how people behaved under various situations after experiencing these life experiences and gaining that wisdom probably at some considerable cost to themselves and then applying their wisdom to print free of charge for generations to benefit from.

The whole idea about fables was/is:--We were all told these stories by our parents grandparents or at primary school so that when we grew up we would have this wisdom which was granted to us and benefit from it without having to live through life painfully to gain that wisdom which usually is expensive ....Wisdom granted to us when we were young kids was free but sadly we gave it no value and we either forget or chose to ignore it .....and so we repeatly do (reinvent the wheel) and follow the herd to earn that same wisdom that we chose to forget the expensive way.

The fable that been visible for sometime is the S&P500 rising without a decent correction that the disciplines keep signaling these last few years is The Boy who cried Wolf (Aesop No 210) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boy_Who_Cried_Wolf).

The fable that sprung to my mind when I read the Carl Icahn article was Chicken Little (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henny_Penny) a chick that believes the sky is falling when an acorn falls on its head. The chick decides to tell the King and on its journey meets other animals (mostly other fowl) which join it in the quest, and along the way a fox invites them to its lair and eats them all.
Media noise (the acorn) causing investor paranoia (Chicken Little and the cumulative group) and I will let you guess who the Fox is :D

[skid]

I can see why you would rather think of Bathhurst than the DOW

[skid]

Haha....Yeah...few to many bourbons last night. Had just seen programme Friday Night Live At Bathurst.



Hoops pretty onto it. I have great respect for his efforts.
I just don't reckon its going to plummet.

This will be an interesting week coming up--i think alot of the more in the know chartists believe we are in for a correction,but that doesnt mean the worst case scenario collapse.
I think some day it will have to come though (with all the debt etc) Just depends how long they can keep patching things up to put it off for longer.
Cheaper oil ATM for you V8 fans

[Hoop]

Nah;),......... all good Hoop:t_up:, Yep all good Karlos..love a good debate mate...Lets start with you ..you seem to be in a very complacent investment mood...did you know that this mood behavour is a warning sign:)

you mentioned DOW will run to 20 000 about 1 to 2 years ago I recall. Yes using the 110 year old average line from 1900 to 2013 chart you can sort of predict when it will reach that index figure of 20,000...But to get to 20000 you have to suffer the ups and downs first......remember Karlos DOW index is cyclic so it will oscillate its way upwards in a long term uptrend...
Then been instilling the fear of GOD into the masses ever since that the DOW will plummet.:scared: Just the messenger Mate and I'll keep reminding you folk that this market is over the top until everyone is sick of me..If my efforts alerts just one person on ST of the warning signs of not be too complacient then I will consider my efforts against the masses as a success...the fundamentals and the systems surrounding the equity systems are all extreme....Usually during the last phase of a market cycle irrationally is the "norm" and it can stay irrational for a more longer time than one rationally predicts... and history says it will stay irrational until the last person that knows Market theory are ridiculed out of existence by their peers...Always been that way in history and always will in the future..that's how the market ticks...that's how it sucks in the most intelligent (it won't happen to me) players.....The message I try to install is, sure..its a no brainer.. you have to be in this market gaining these over the top returns, but...don't think this is normal because it not!!!! There is invisible very high risk...I say any warning signs must be actioned...get out cry wolf get back in cry wolf get out cry wolf get back in...don't assume the next warning is a cry wolf...If you are wrong the sudden drop (e.g An A wave 10% in 3 days) will temp you to stay in to reclaim your losses..That is called the anchoring trap and nearly everyone (intelligent or not) caught in the sudden drop will adopt this human behaviour see "INVESTING TRAPS" (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/060513/avoid-these-common-investing-psychology-traps.asp)

Bathurst this weekend buddy:). Lets forget projections from yourself of apocalyptic carnage to the sharemarkets for a few days.:)...Who says it going to be carnage!!!! ..Irrational markets may have months more life of sky rocketing prices...or it could end now who knows???..Any way if the bull dies now why does everyone assume that a return to more normal fundamentials has to result with blood on the floor..not me...There could be blood, though, if the economy tanks... but... there are many other ways to bring down extremes using hundreds of variables ( one such mild correction outcome could be countering the effect of lowering the extreme P/E ratio with increased earnings from a continuing strong economy which creates a plateauing trend less pattern for a couple of years...But, the key fundamental is the Wall st Share Market DRIVER (annualised P/E Ratio) which is miles too high..Any increase in inflation/deflation and this driver will certainly drop and that will happen in the near future I guarantee you that... I suggest you and Mac read my latest post on the Investing Strategies and Secular Bear Markets thread and read how extreme this sharemarket has become on Wall St
.................................................. ...................................

[winner69]

Shucks ....that was a bad day on US markets

Backdown to where it was a few months ago

Was Jesse right after all .....long way down from 2020 is the S&P500

Yes 1910 is a long way from 2020 when Jesse called the top a week or so ago.

We hope a crash never happens but if on occurs we should not be surprised ...signs have been there for a while.

Whether his is just a 'healthy' correction and down 15% to 20% or just the early stages of a 'crash' and down 50% or more who knows. Market sentiment is a funny thing.

NZ and Aust are not immune


Just need to manage what's thrown at us on an individual stock basis. Fundamentals mean squat all in these times so capital preservation is my objective and squiggly lines will help me in this.

[dumbass]

Here is an elliot wave perspective on where we maybe are at. i think there is a significant top in at 2020 and we will see a deep and swift correction of a major third wave 1074 - 2020.
Even if its a shallow correction we could be bottoming around 1800 if it goes a deeper could be 1650. the correction is probably going to be of 3 significant waves i think wave A will bottom quite soon around 1850 then a B wave 30 % retracement rally back up before a major C wave down into its conclusion. As the waves evolve the potential bottom can be determined more accurately.
The bull is still alive though and once the correction concludes its off to new highs, a deeper correction should allow the bull market to run longer.

6338

[dumbass]

possible bottom in around 1970 , maybe time for a counter trend rally back up into 1900s before another big drop.
playing with fire but worth a long !

[winner69]

Great article with good pictures

All about what hoop and I have been on about with these secular bulls and bears

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/long-term-stock-chart-pe-ratio-2014-10

[Trigger]

Great article with good pictures

All about what hoop and I have been on about with these secular bulls and bears

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/long-term-stock-chart-pe-ratio-2014-10

Great article winner. Thanks for posting.

[Hoop]

S&P dropped to 1966 -32 -1.62% and yep the GET OUT signal was triggered last night (NZ time) creating a high probability of a correction.....now we have to wait and see whether this is going to be another piddly-assed correction or a more "normal" 10-15% garden variety one (or worse, a cyclic reversal)...so, each day from now on will give us another small piece of info together with America media drama..A bit like a soap opera..huh?

Noodles ..Haven't had much exposure to Wall St for some time now ..due to $US devaluing (now ended?) ..but I always keep the finger on the USA pulse as I've found it prudent to keep tabs on the mental state of the Elephant in the same room as you.

The last few years most of my attention + money has been in NZ stocks..a no brainer really ...NZX rising just as good as Wall St + an appreciating NZ$ to boot...but all good things must come to an end...eh?.... NZ$ topped out? .but so far in the NZX there are many stocks singing to a different tune and holding up well compared to those Globally..so I'm still in until TA kicks me out or better opportunities arise...

That post was written on the 26th September...

So what has happened during the last 3 weeks?....At last a decent unrestricted correction..... this time...the Dipsters acccumulating "cheap" shares in the dips + the Feds re-assurances failed to apply enough buy pressure to create an early arrest of this correction (and create another cry wolf with the correction indicators) thereby this correction has so far been allowed to continue towards its normal completion ....

Today we have seen the first upward move creating a "bottom"..The S&P500 closed at 1887 up 24 (1.30%).... So what now?....

Firstly I will mention this rare event,,,,,,,,,,a large slow moving Flash Crash, they ignore supports and resistances and all the others Laws..They have a predictable V shape behaviour .....

A healthy Bull market correction exhibit the same behavioural patterns (Laws) as Bear market cycles except the duration is much shorter term...
The Elliot wave discipline presumes this investor behaviour with 3 waves ...initial "worry" correction such as that the price is overbought. .. "relief" rally .... followed by an "uncertainty" correction, and so on as this investor behaviour cycle may repeat....repeated "uncertainty corrections can produce enough investor fear to create panic selling..

So Questions...
Has the Bull market Cycle ended? ...too early to tell.
Has the bull market correction ended?..too early to tell....This correction is 10% so far ..it's very possible it can be bigger than this...
Is it a flash crash with its acute V-shape recovery signature...too early to tell ...(easily busting the 1895 Fib and 1905/10 resistances are the first requirements)

Not much help..huh?...so how can we evaluate this situation?....
Remember corrections are mini-me bear cycles, so this present market should follow the behaviour as mentioned above...relief rallies in bear cycles are sucker rallies so beware..Why???..When traders find and enters a near bottom and ride the rally upwards they all have preplanned exit strategies..the most simple viewpoint for us Plebs is to remember how significantly important the Support and Resistance lines on a chart become..Therefore all eyes will be on that 1905/1910 resistance line...If the S&P500 fails to break through that resistance point, then the traders will be exiting here and take their quick profits as this is the only way for them to make profits in a bear cycle by using those Bear Market investing disciplines...
This of course makes for a self-fulifilling sucker rally prophesy and the Fundies are quick to argue this and that the market has then become irrational and running due to the technicals...During Bull market corrections however traders realise this all could be temporary,,but if there is any cyclic reversal doubts lingering in the groups sub-conscious then the traders may view this bull market cycle correction as a much longer event, at least until those doubts are extinguished..which could take many months or longer..

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50017102014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50017102014.png.html)

[winner69]

Hussman still convinced a crash to come sometime

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc141020.htm

I mention large down-days for a reason. A market crash comprises of a series of one-day losses that may be large, but are not particularly extraordinary in and of themselves. The problem is that they tend to occur in sequence rather than independently

[dumbass]

Hussman still convinced a crash to come sometime

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc141020.htm

I mention large down-days for a reason. A market crash comprises of a series of one-day losses that may be large, but are not particularly extraordinary in and of themselves. The problem is that they tend to occur in sequence rather than independently

interesting perspective but the return from his funds is terrible , he wouldn't even figure in the ST competition

[Hoop]

interesting perspective but the return from his funds is terrible , he wouldn't even figure in the ST competition

Hmmmm...reminds me of another chapee ......whats his name??...ahhh yes..Bob :D

[skid]

That post was written on the 26th September...

So what has happened during the last 3 weeks?....At last a decent unrestricted correction..... this time...the Dipsters acccumulating "cheap" shares in the dips + the Feds re-assurances failed to apply enough buy pressure to create an early arrest of this correction (and create another cry wolf with the correction indicators) thereby this correction has so far been allowed to continue towards its normal completion ....

Today we have seen the first upward move creating a "bottom"..The S&P500 closed at 1887 up 24 (1.30%).... So what now?....

Firstly I will mention this rare event,,,,,,,,,,a large slow moving Flash Crash, they ignore supports and resistances and all the others Laws..They have a predictable V shape behaviour .....

A healthy Bull market correction exhibit the same behavioural patterns (Laws) as Bear market cycles except the duration is much shorter term...
The Elliot wave discipline presumes this investor behaviour with 3 waves ...initial "worry" correction such as that the price is overbought. .. "relief" rally .... followed by an "uncertainty" correction, and so on as this investor behaviour cycle may repeat....repeated "uncertainty corrections can produce enough investor fear to create panic selling..

So Questions...
Has the Bull market Cycle ended? ...too early to tell.
Has the bull market correction ended?..too early to tell....This correction is 10% so far ..it's very possible it can be bigger than this...
Is it a flash crash with its acute V-shape recovery signature...too early to tell ...(easily busting the 1895 Fib and 1905/10 resistances are the first requirements)

Not much help..huh?...so how can we evaluate this situation?....
Remember corrections are mini-me bear cycles, so this present market should follow the behaviour as mentioned above...relief rallies in bear cycles are sucker rallies so beware..Why???..When traders find and enters a near bottom and ride the rally upwards they all have preplanned exit strategies..the most simple viewpoint for us Plebs is to remember how significantly important the Support and Resistance lines on a chart become..Therefore all eyes will be on that 1905/1910 resistance line...If the S&P500 fails to break through that resistance point, then the traders will be exiting here and take their quick profits as this is the only way for them to make profits in a bear cycle by using those Bear Market investing disciplines...
This of course makes for a self-fulifilling sucker rally prophesy and the Fundies are quick to argue this and that the market has then become irrational and running due to the technicals...During Bull market corrections however traders realise this all could be temporary,,but if there is any cyclic reversal doubts lingering in the groups sub-conscious then the traders may view this bull market cycle correction as a much longer event, at least until those doubts are extinguished..which could take many months or longer..

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50017102014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50017102014.png.html)

S&P ended Monday @1904--It will be interesting to see if your scenario plays out

[winner69]

On fire today

2000 beckons ------>>>>>>> then on to 2030 an a new HIGH

[Hoop]

On fire today

2000 beckons ------>>>>>>> then on to 2030 an a new HIGH

That scenario Winner is looking increasingly likely..

With the S&P500 at 1942 The technicals have showed resistance break throughs...this indicates that this rally has a good chance of being a genuine rally and not the sucker type ..So far this implies that this correction is more likely another one of the bull market variety...The most significant resistance lines that were broken was the bull bear line 1905/10 and its confirmation line at 1925/30 (dashed orange line)...

Why the v-shaped correction?...These are stampede type actions and can be triggered by any small insignificant (may be unrelated) event(s)...It shows the market had (having) an underlying nervous feeling..Flash corrections can settle the markets anxieties when it can be seen in hindsight that the fear invoked action was an unwarranted and a quick rally fills in the correction..At the moment the start of good earnings news has settled some of those overvalued market anxieties for now...and the complacent feel good factor is returning..

As this market seemed to have reacted with irrational speed (stampede), the Fibonacci (instinct behaviour) indicators become more relevant...The 61.8% fib retracement is at 1945 so care is still needed as 61.8 is a major life number

The tech traders will still be in as they have watched each resistance break...their eyes will now be focused on the next 2 hurdles,, the 1945 Fib then the 1960/70 area...any resistance problems will see these guys take their profits and exit the market and the index will tank..Us plebs knowing where these anxiety index levels (resistance) are, gives us valuable warning sign areas so to be careful, alert and have better information to assess the longer term direction of the market...A bit like road signs on a highway..eh?

Its a day by day thing at the moment...and so far the S&P500 is looking good..

[ananda77]

... the *1973/*1970 pivot taken out on the *Close suggesting another test in the *1950/*1940 support

... running beside the current sell-off is a 'Dow theory Buy signal' (Dow fresh all time high with IMMEDIATE TRANNY support - a very rare occasion indeed)

So careful out there, this bull has shaken off weak hands many times

... am running this sell-off weighted to the long side with plenty of Cash buying the down side

kind regards

... this strategy is now qualified with an unsuccessful re-test of the SPX500 Highs into 2015, followed by new Lows into 2016

kind regards

[psychic]

That scenario Winner is looking increasingly likely..

With the S&P500 at 1942 The technicals have showed resistance break throughs...this indicates that this rally has a good chance of being a genuine rally and not the sucker type ..So far this implies that this correction is more likely another one of the bull market variety...The most significant resistance lines that were broken was the bull bear line 1905/10 and its confirmation line at 1925/30 (dashed orange line)...

Why the v-shaped correction?...These are stampede type actions and can be triggered by any small insignificant (may be unrelated) event(s)...It shows the market had (having) an underlying nervous feeling..Flash corrections can settle the markets anxieties when it can be seen in hindsight that the fear invoked action was an unwarranted and a quick rally fills in the correction..At the moment the start of good earnings news has settled some of those overvalued market anxieties for now...and the complacent feel good factor is returning..

As this market seemed to have reacted with irrational speed (stampede), the Fibonacci (instinct behaviour) indicators become more relevant...The 61.8% fib retracement is at 1945 so care is still needed as 61.8 is a major life number

The tech traders will still be in as they have watched each resistance break...their eyes will now be focused on the next 2 hurdles,, the 1945 Fib then the 1960/70 area...any resistance problems will see these guys take their profits and exit the market and the index will tank..Us plebs knowing where these anxiety index levels (resistance) are, gives us valuable warning sign areas so to be careful, alert and have better information to assess the longer term direction of the market...A bit like road signs on a highway..eh?

Its a day by day thing at the moment...and so far the S&P500 is looking good..


Well predicted Hoop!

[Hoop]

Thankyou ..It alway a great to get a comment like that from a Psychic ;):D

Well...maybe I posted one day too soon....as the S&P500 not looking that great today, but, still odds on being bullish....just!!! ..Hmmm ...Dead cat bounce?.. I do like doing dead cat trading ..its fun...but I have only done it in the NZX...
It seemed the market struck Fib resistance problems and started a technical sell off back to the 1927 close..This 1927 (1930) is the bull bear confirmation line so the S&P500 has thrown back to test this now support area...Throw backs are common events that test recent break through S&R lines or chart pattern breakouts.. it gives investors a second chance to enter the market....... however today the timing (the close) has interrupted the momentum so we have to wait until tomorrow to see whether buyers (having 16 hours to think about it) will return and create a bounce off this support area...

Ananda..best of luck going long..and being bullish for the next 18+ months...you may need it:)

[Hoop]

Hmmm..The more I think about this rally the more downbeat I feel about it...Dead cats and all..

Not that clued up on Elliott Waves...Could this rally still be the B wave?.. Dumbass?

[winner69]

Hmmm..The more I think about this rally the more downbeat I feel about it...Dead cats and all..

Not that clued up on Elliott Waves...Could this rally still be the B wave?.. Dumbass?

That log periodic behaviour continues

Might need to reread some of Sornette's papers again, esp that Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises one

[ananda77]

Thankyou ..It alway a great to get a comment like that from a Psychic ;):D

Well...maybe I posted one day too soon....as the S&P500 not looking that great today, but, still odds on being bullish....just!!! ..Hmmm ...Dead cat bounce?.. I do like doing dead cat trading ..its fun...but I have only done it in the NZX...
It seemed the market struck Fib resistance problems and started a technical sell off back to the 1927 close..This 1927 (1930) is the bull bear confirmation line so the S&P500 has thrown back to test this now support area...Throw backs are common events that test recent break through S&R lines or chart pattern breakouts.. it gives investors a second chance to enter the market....... however today the timing (the close) has interrupted the momentum so we have to wait until tomorrow to see whether buyers (having 16 hours to think about it) will return and create a bounce off this support area...

Ananda..best of luck going long..and being bullish for the next 18+ months...you may need it:)

... am sure I expressed this wrongly again

Qualified means, the original strategy has changed:
-am stay weighted long until early 2015 (or so)
-am weighted short near the current SPX500 Highs and adding short positions into 2016 (or so)

kind regards

[dumbass]

Hmmm..The more I think about this rally the more downbeat I feel about it...Dead cats and all..

Not that clued up on Elliott Waves...Could this rally still be the B wave?.. Dumbass?

i think we are still in the B wave and this is most likely just the first leg of it, intermediate A of a 3 leg major B.

i think this rally ( intermediate A ) is going to end pretty soon around the 1950 - 1960 area and then down to 1900 or 1860 ( intermediate B ) then the final wave up intermediate C to

complete major B, before all hell breaks loose, 1600s.

still following this trading plan until its wrong !

[Hoop]

That log periodic behaviour continues

Might need to reread some of Sornette's papers again, esp that Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises one

Yes it does ...waving around the middle of the SD(2) channel with small changes (corrections)..If this correction is over it will be another unhealthy small correction although this one was more dramatic..eh?..

And yes as you say Winner 2050 by Xmas seems to be the way its projecting to be..

I'm searching for short term technical tibits for subtle very early signs of a cycle reversal...there's probably none and I'm just seeing imaginary demons.... but searching for them at this mature stage of the Bull market cycle is fun....

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50022102014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50022102014.png.html)

[Hoop]

... am sure I expressed this wrongly again

Qualified means, the original strategy has changed:
-am stay weighted long until early 2015 (or so)
-am weighted short near the current SPX500 Highs and adding short positions into 2016 (or so)

kind regards

ahh haa...yeah I did interpret your original post differently.....so you think there's a topping out of the cycle close by?


i think we are still in the B wave and this is most likely just the first leg of it, intermediate A of a 3 leg major B.

i think this rally ( intermediate A ) is going to end pretty soon around the 1950 - 1960 area and then down to 1900 or 1860 ( intermediate B ) then the final wave up intermediate C to

complete major B, before all hell breaks loose, 1600s.

still following this trading plan until its wrong !

Well we are nearly there (1950-1960) with the 1949 close today (resting on its new support)..Interesting thing on my day chart is it topped out at 1962....there's not any charted resistance here so why turn around at this point (1962)... did it tested and failed a near MA50 (1966) area or wave top?...

Well you Plan A is still operating :)..if Plan A stays on track then it will break Winners log chart upward channel..He won't be pleased.;)

[winner69]

Yes it does ...waving around the middle of the SD(2) channel with small changes (corrections)..If this correction is over it will be another unhealthy small correction although this one was more dramatic..eh?..

And yes as you say Winner 2050 by Xmas seems to be the way its projecting to be..

I'm searching for short term technical tibits for subtle very early signs of a cycle reversal...there's probably none and I'm just seeing imaginary demons.... but searching for them at this mature stage of the Bull market cycle is fun....

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50022102014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50022102014.png.html)

Don't forget these log periodic waves end in finite time singularity (fancy words for 'blow off' / crash I think)

Didier also said this early this year "equities are expensive, and prices have been propped up by central banks’ easing policies. But the big correction, when it comes, will be triggered by a major political or social event induced when bubbles, driven by the QE everywhere, reach maturity and global instability rises.”

I just keeping close eye on things and if it all does happen like this get out quick

[Hoop]

Don't forget these log periodic waves end in finite time singularity (fancy words for 'blow off' / crash I think)

Didier also said this early this year "equities are expensive, and prices have been propped up by central banks’ easing policies. But the big correction, when it comes, will be triggered by a major political or social event induced when bubbles, driven by the QE everywhere, reach maturity and global instability rises.”

I just keeping close eye on things and if it all does happen like this get out quick

I agree Winner...we have said this and outlined many systemic points of view on the other thread..In theory ..much of the global system (major powers) looked warped due to a few sub systems hijacked by the Central banks..QE is the Fad this century ..QE is regulatory so it blocks communication channels among some of the overall systems nervous system...the longer those channels are blocked the worse the mess ( Overall system correction..Equities is only a small cog in this systemic wheel) when these sub-systems unblock...It would surprise me if the Butterfly Effect (http://www.princeton.edu/~achaney/tmve/wiki100k/docs/Butterfly_effect.html)happens...

Yep, realise it early and get out quick...thats what is taking up my time on this thread..finding early indicator warnings...never know this researching time may become very valuable at some point in the future..eh?...

Until then lets party :D

[ananda77]

Yes Hoop, I think the SPX500 topped and will bottom out in 2016. This is why I think current rally will re-test the Highs but fail to make new Highs. Big buy opportunity coming up

kind regards

[ananda77]

Yes Hoop, I think the SPX500 topped and will bottom out in 2016. This is why I think current rally will re-test the Highs but fail to make new Highs. Big buy opportunity coming up

kind regards

Hi Hoop
... of course, the market can power through to new Highs in which case the current long weighted strategy remains unchanged - the rest is playing around with different long/short exposure levels

... important really was not to change the long weighted set-up into the drastic sell-off

kind regards

[Hoop]

A screenshot from MarketWatch today (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-ends-qe3-and-sends-upbeat-signals-on-economy-2014-10-29?page=1) with a 2 page summary on its site

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SampP50029102014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SampP50029102014.png.html)

[winner69]

S&P at 2000 tomorrow .... great

[skid]

IMHO cheap oil has replaced easy money (QE) Right now its a stand off ,but sooner or later someone will have to blink (as the price is below production costs)and when oil goes back up (with no QE to fall back on) we could see some speed bumps in this easy ride.

[ananda77]

IMHO cheap oil has replaced easy money (QE) Right now its a stand off ,but sooner or later someone will have to blink (as the price is below production costs)and when oil goes back up (with no QE to fall back on) we could see some speed bumps in this easy ride.

...agree. oil price behavior unusual. am taking it to be cautious - will look closely at todays liquidity inflow update tonight
kind regards

[ananda77]

S&P at 2000 tomorrow .... great

...forced to make money
kind regards

[ananda77]

...the NDX and SPX500 and ASX200 >super, super overbought in the daily (amazing in a period of just under two weeks) - amazing volitility

...good value in the Asian markets (STILL today)

...would be careful into the weekend, take some profits and run a more balanced trading portfolio - at least after a potential run -up to new Highs tonight. the market needs some sort of consolidation

...JUST IDEAS

kind regards

[ananda77]

...the NDX and SPX500 and ASX200 >super, super overbought in the daily (amazing in a period of just under two weeks) - amazing volitility

...good value in the Asian markets (STILL today)

...would be careful into the weekend, take some profits and run a more balanced trading portfolio - at least after a potential run -up to new Highs tonight. the market needs some sort of consolidation

...JUST IDEAS

kind regards

amazing, the NDX and SPX500 futures run into new Highs
taking profit to balance and run a bit of oil 'long' - I mean its not Xmas yet but US election week

kind regards

[Hoop]

Nice to see many in a positive mood:t_up:

Only 3 weeks ago seemed all were worried.:scared:





Oops.... that's right....... everyone except me:)



Have a good weekend fellas:cool:

Hi Karlos
Naughty naughty..you can't claim that credit and can't claim knowing other peoples emotional status either...but it was a try Karlos :D..As a consolation prize You were right this time on your longer term outlook as it reached a new high so the recent action was a correction rather than cyclic reversal...

.......but did you know that when the indexes reach new highs yesterday..it was abnormal.... historically speaking a record index highs normally sees the majority (80%+) of stocks above their MA200....so far with this new index high the majority of Stocks above their MA200 is only at 58%.....Therefore so far this latest rally is not (yet?) broad based...

.
Me Worried??..No..I just watch the market moves and post it...My discipline is Technical Analysis which is void of emotion ...Theory says Emotion Kills... and worry is an emotion.

Hope your weekend is still good..
ohhh.off topic..Have you seen the movie Stretch...I loved it..full of black humour and some bizzarre characters...The "Hoff" played himself as a fictionalised "very rich hit man type "heavy" in a 5 minute appearance..Loved his non stop threatening rant.."..........and do you think I got to where I am now today by starring in Baywatch????.............":D

[ananda77]

Yes Hoop, I think the SPX500 topped and will bottom out in 2016. This is why I think current rally will re-test the Highs but fail to make new Highs. Big buy opportunity coming up

kind regards

... referring to the big buying opportunity, there is chance that the October Low was it:

>>the next best buying opportunity for the next half a decade (+) since 2008<<<
kind regards and (keep safe)

[winner69]

Still looking good

2100 beckons next week

[ananda77]

Still looking good

2100 beckons next week

... now 13 sessions into up-move but looks like some consolidation going forward. However, potential for another test of the October LOW is high -be safe- would never underestimate this potential and position accordingly

kind regards

[Hoop]

.
Duly noted many, many times:)You sound like Spock from Star Trek



I am looking forward to the next correction, wonder if the reasoning will be "Oh no, Japan had just started but now stopped its Q.E. programme, its all over for the DOW"

PS Just kidding fellas:).....................



Got the tools now to predict a correction as seen on this thread ..so I'll let you know when the next one is brewing....

Live long and prosper
Hoop

[winner69]

Hoop, 2050 next week,a bit of a dip to 2000 and then 2100 by xmas?

That's how I see it anyway

[ananda77]

... now 13 sessions into up-move but looks like some consolidation going forward. However, potential for another test of the October LOW is high -be safe- would never underestimate this potential and position accordingly

kind regards

.... nothing to add to the above, this market feels like close to a Trading Top. Am taking profit into Wednesday 'Close' for a start and see how it develops further... however, long live the secular bull
kind regsrds

[ananda77]

... now 13 sessions into up-move but looks like some consolidation going forward. However, potential for another test of the October LOW is high -be safe- would never underestimate this potential and position accordingly

kind regards

.... nothing to add to the above, this market feels like close to a Trading Top. Am taking profit into Wednesday 'Close' for a start and see how it develops further... however, long live the secular bull
kind regsrds

[Hoop]

Hoop, 2050 next week,a bit of a dip to 2000 and then 2100 by xmas?

That's how I see it anyway

It seems that way Winner...Mr Market is in a exuberant mood so its still party time...and...they say you're gotta be in to win



Well Hussman is continuing to wring his hands in despair as his fundamental analysis (assuming cycles and mean reversions) is being ignored by Mr Market
While Mr Market ignores the Fundamentals..Hussman is resorting to use this well worn statement "...Over the short run, market returns are driven by mindset, but ultimately, they are driven by valuation..."

Back to Market Sanity and common sense...Hussman's results are very very scary...and as cycles are cycles there will be at some point in time a mean reversion...
His ending paragraph... ".... under current conditions, we view the investment environment for stocks as being among a handful of the most hostile points in history...."
and as it's always the case in an exuberant phase within the last stage bull market cycle ..no one listens or cares..

Hussman Funds Weekly Market Comment 10th November 2014 (http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc141110.htm)


.... nothing to add to the above, this market feels like close to a Trading Top. Am taking profit into Wednesday 'Close' for a start and see how it develops further... however, long live the secular bull
kind regsrds

What Secular Bull??
I'm still in the Secular Bear Market Cycle camp ..I'm one of the unknown plebs within some esteem company..Hussman Shiller, Mauldin and co :D...This secular bear market cycle is 14 years old now and it's secular traits is an overall downtrending annualised PE Ratio back to below 10...The ending of this Secular Bear is due to distance back to below 10 it is not time related nor measured by the trending movement in the S&P500 price index ...The Secular Bear Market Cycle is solely measured by the long term trending movement of the annualised PE Ratio...now at 26 and due for the next move down,,,eh?

[ananda77]

OK Hoop, fair enough. Next time am not gonna mention 'secular'
kind regards

[ananda77]

...all markets feel very artificial at present - all over the place to put it mildly
... difficult, if not impossible to follow any sort of technical set up
...re: strategy: not blinking, keeping detached, exploit differences in market potential
... the market will move one way or the other opening up
kind regards

[winner69]

Hoop, I see we got to 2050

This guy usually a bear but he reckons next stop is 2250

http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/GMO_QtlyLetter_3Q14_full.pdf

Read Bubble Watch article

[winner69]

Hoop 2100 beckons next week

This is amazing stuff

[ananda77]

Hoop 2100 beckons next week
This is amazing stuff

... and why not S&P 500 *4200(+) in 2024 starting in 2009?
... am banking on that one
kind regards

[winner69]

If this was a stock would you buy it?

[boring]

It's interesting if you look over the S&P 500 Index over a 20 year period:

28 Nov 1994: 454.16
28 Nov 2014: 2,067.56
Period: 20 years

That gives a compound annual growth rate of 7.87%, which is not over the top. If anything, it's pretty ordinary. It's when the commentators shorten the time frame to the trough of the last stock market fall does it look like the market has had over-the-top returns:

28 Nov 2008: 896.24
28 Nov 2014: 2,067.56
Period: 6 years
This timeframe gives an annual compound return of 14.95% which would seem very heady indeed.

Now I have no idea whether the market is at a top or not. Being a long-term investor, I just want to own excellent businesses that pay ever-increasing dividends. If the market crashes (as it will inevitably do in the future, just like it has in the past), I'll still sleep tight knowing that the majority of my investment funds is invested in businesses such as Johnson & Johnson, 3M, Procter & Gamble, Colgate Palmolive, American Express, Wells Fargo, McCormick etc.

[skid]

I found this interesting --another of the many points of view

http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/03/investing/treasury-report-wall-street-risks/index.html

[winner69]

Boring .....sometimes he return over 30 years is zilch ....ayb the next 30 years
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2014/12/03/connecting-the-dots-the-healthy-bull-market-bah-humbug/

[boring]

Hey Winner, in my 25 year long-term investment career, numerous articles just like these get written and circulated.
In many instances (but not in the one you've posted), they're perpetrated by Wall Street institutions who push their case forward for timing the markets, generating churn and lucrative trading commissions. Other times it's just to get eyeballs on the page (or site). For those who have a passion for long-term investing and get a buzz out of owning a portfolio of sound businesses, it's not a cause for concern at all.

This is because:
1. The data points chosen in these articles have been data mined to perfection. In this case, the S&P 500 index was used between periods 1954 to 1984.
2. In real life, achieving a 0% return over 30 years in the market is highly improbable. That's because it's very unlikely that you make a one-time lump some investment in the markets during times like 1954 and hold until 1984 without ever investing a cent more during that period. Most long-term investors make periodic investments throughout their investment career, hopefully putting money to work when markets are both historically high or low.
3. The indices quoted are capital indices, so they don't take into account the effect of dividends. Dividends account for a significant proportion of total return in the markets. According to S&P, dividends account of about 33% of total equity returns. Excluding the effect of dividend returns over a 30 year period by quoting a capital index is misleading.
4. Even if a newly retired individual sunk their entire savings into the market (e.g S&P 500 index) in 1954, they still would have at least gotten a cash return from dividends. The dividend amounts from many top blue chip companies usually increase year on year. In practical reality, this scenario wouldn't happen anyway because retirees (with a clue) spread their investment holdings across shares, fixed interest and cash.

So these types of articles are an interesting academic exercise only.

for those long-term investors on this site, the real key is to just get out of your own way. Become successful despite your own judgemental and behavioural biases. It took the first 10 years of my investing career to really come to terms with that. I can now appreciate Charlie Munger's words "Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass".

I will admit that long-term buy and hold investing is not for everyone. You really have to have a passion for analysing business models and financials.
Maybe that's why I'm hooked on watching "Shark Tank" and "The Profit".

[Hoop]

S&P500 closed this morning (10am NZtime) on its lows at 2026 (-34) -1.64%
The media are making bear noises again.
My correction indicator shows no warnings yet

[Hoop]

S&P500 closed this morning (10am NZtime) on its lows at 2026 (-34) -1.64%
The media are making bear noises again.
My correction indicator shows no warnings yet

two days later S&P closes at 2002.... 3 out of 4 indicators have triggered correction warnings...
Will post indicator chart when I find time

[Hoop]

1990 down -12 all 4 correction warnings indicators fired......Get Out warning triggered....
Will it be a shallow, mild, or severe bull market cycle correction .......and/or a reversal to bear market cycle......you pick:mellow:

[BIRMANBOY]

I found a recent photo of Hoop for those of you who follow his posts.
https://static.fjcdn.com/pictures/Bear_577385_769380.jpg

1990 down -12 all 4 correction warnings indicators fired......Get Out warning triggered....
Will it be a shallow, mild, or severe bull market cycle correction .......and/or a reversal to bear market cycle......you pick:mellow:

[Hoop]

I found a recent photo of Hoop for those of you who follow his posts.
https://static.fjcdn.com/pictures/Bear_577385_769380.jpg

....:):).....

[ananda77]

...market likely to jingle rock into *2030_*2040 resistance before exhausting

...after that, not sure but possible, another down leg to test the *1970 support again

... after that it's jingle bells, jingle bells all the way into January 2015

... bite me if am wrong, but these days traditional indicators are quite useless as said before

... please be careful, high risk in progress

kind regards

[ananda77]

Merry Xmas and prosperous New Year

.... make sure to lock in those sweetie prices at the pumps

kind regards

[kiora]

Merry Xmas and prosperous New Year

.... make sure to lock in those sweetie prices at the pumps

kind regards

Merry Xmas Ananda
Thanks immensely for your commentary over the past year.I hope you & Hoop both keep up the commentary as I for one find it very useful.
Safe travelling over the festive season.

[Hoop]

..

... bite me if am wrong, but these days traditional indicators are quite useless as said before..



You wrote this post when the S&P bounced back to be up a huge 2% intraday.....whats your take on TA now Ananda that the +2% has capitulated into another near -1% down day as I type..

Many investors that dived in this morning (on the European relief bounce) ignoring their Wall St TA correction warnings just got their arses flamed big time...

My Correction warnings is still 100% accurate..its just the corrections in the past have been shallow (Stage 3 bull market signature) and the correction indicator therefore perceived as worthless..

As this Bull cycle progresses my and other TA correction warnings systems should be still viewed as a period to operate with caution, not a sign to continue playing Russian Roulette...by once again diving in with the first glimmer of light as happened today...

All TA correction warning systems alert that the market has developed elevated risk..this was ignored today...so serves them right...

Unfortunately for the overall market this will remove some buying pressure as there has been an evaporation of available money today..... and available money is needed to drive a market higher

[ananda77]

You wrote this post when the S&P bounced back to be up a huge 2% intraday.....whats your take on TA now Ananda that the +2% has capitulated into another near -1% down day as I type..

Many investors that dived in this morning (on the European relief bounce) ignoring their Wall St TA correction warnings just got their arses flamed big time...

My Correction warnings is still 100% accurate..its just the corrections in the past have been shallow (Stage 3 bull market signature) and the correction indicator therefore perceived as worthless..

As this Bull cycle progresses my and other TA correction warnings systems should be still viewed as a period to operate with caution, not a sign to continue playing Russian Roulette...by once again diving in with the first glimmer of light as happened today...

All TA correction warning systems alert that the market has developed elevated risk..this was ignored today...so serves them right...

Unfortunately for the overall market this will remove some buying pressure as there has been an evaporation of available money today..... and available money is needed to drive a market higher

Hoop: please don't get me wrong. Am only talking about my trading style, and there are some TA trading rules to be followed. The market dived right back to *1970 support and unless this support is taken out which doubt, we will see Santa dishing out

kind regards

[Hoop]

Hoop: please don't get me wrong. Am only talking about my trading style, and there are some TA trading rules to be followed. The market dived right back to *1970 support and unless this support is taken out which doubt, we will see Santa dishing out

kind regards

No Probs from me Ananda...I enjoy your views and we all learn from differing viewpoints....
Have you noticed the FED has once again become vocal and talked the market up yet again...Crafty lot these FEDs, they chip in when the market hits weakness and talk it back up though key resistance areas.(S&P500 just broken MA50 resistance)..Will the market fall for this FED ploy..again?