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ananda77
06-10-2009, 05:37 PM
US Calendar:
U.S. ISM services index rose to 50.9 in Sep, above median 50 vs 48.4 Aug

Bond Market:
U.S. 10-year TIPS sale awarded at 1.51%, firm cover 3.12, indirect bid 44%
Treasury yields rebounded after firm TIPS, options trade faded Friday rally

Stock Market:

...SPX 500 is extending its rebound today after a successful defense of the 31 August Close *1020 and the 50 MA *1016; the index penetrated the initial up target *1041 intraday, but finished on the weak side *1040

...its successful defense indicates that *1016 remains a short term floor, but the continuous weak finish in the major US indexes also indicates and strenghtens the double top view in the *1080/*1092/*1119 target range; only an unexpected Close below SPX 500 *1016 would negate this scenario and would confirm, that the expected 20% (+) sell-off during Q4 is already well on its way

Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
-hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
-hedge: short 10% equity covered; short bias (+); with equity exposure;

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

in contrast: a long-term BUY/HOLD Strategy with personal regards ("Ananda, I feel a bit mean featuring your posts like this, but maybe there is something we can all learn from it."
Regards, Phaedrus.) from no other than 'The Greatest Phaedrus' (see attachment)

ananda77
06-10-2009, 09:01 PM
...there is a difference between 'trading stocks' and 'holding investments' (Core Holding); depending on income needs (dividends), investments are hardly ever sold. but need to be hedged wisely;

example of a hedge strategy: 10% (+) hedged in daily up/down market conditions (see attachments)

...and keep enjoying those dividends...

Kind Regards

ananda77
07-10-2009, 04:43 AM
US Calendar:
-quiet Tues -weekly store sales
-$39 bln 3-yr note auction

Bond Market:
Treasury yields turned higher with positive tone on stocks, pending 3-year supply
U.S. 3-year auction expected to benefit from cheapening, relative value on curve

Stock Market:

...SPX 500 is extending its rebound today after a successful defense of the 31 August Close *1020 and the 50 MA *1016; the index surged higher to take out the initial up target 1041 decisively, possibly coming to a temporary stop as high as *1069 intraday

...around the *1070 zone, a mild slide back to test the *1041/*1048 area is possible; if this support is successfully defended, further gains include a second go at *1080 initially with potential to test the important *1100/*1119 upper barrier range

...the USD is extremely oversold, so any short- to medium term correction (possibly up to 10%) will quickly stop the equity markets' seemingly unstoppable advance

Trading Strategy:

-CONSERVATIVE-
Marty Chenard: “I am now staying in cash on the long side.” The C-RSI is still positive so there could end up being a whipsaw to the upside, but the odds are that we are going to see high whipsawing volatility that no-one likes to invest in. Staying in longer right now, is only for people who like "rolling the dice".)

-CONTRARIAN-
Q&A with Prechter (EW)
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/qa-with-prechter-technical-vs-fundamental-analysis-3091.html
Marc Faber: “Monetary policy in the United States will stay expansionary”
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/marc-faber-monetary-policy-in-the-united-states-will-stay-expansionary.html

DAY TRADER:
-short-term bullish over the next up to 10 days with bias for a double top pattern followed by 20% (+) correction > target SPX 500 *869
-personal strategy: no equities; holding investments currently neutral to 10% (+) capital hedged
-David Rosenberg: equity markets so overvalued, it is not funny
-Financial Insight and daily Market Timing Signals: current posture >cash

DUMB MONEY:
-fully invested -no worries mate-

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

Lego_Man
07-10-2009, 08:45 AM
So in summation, you'd be using the current short-term rally to roll off some or all of your long equity exposure (presumably at a solid profit).

Thanks for your thoughts again.

ananda77
07-10-2009, 09:32 AM
So in summation, you'd be using the current short-term rally to roll off some or all of your long equity exposure (presumably at a solid profit). Thanks for your thoughts again.

...yes quite right (did the last stock trade sometime last week), one of the main reason why I do not want to trade Australian stocks now is that the US markets seem to be top heavy and the Australian market opens after the US markets close; other reasons are, the USD is extremely oversold and the increasingly obvious divergence between the US bond and US equity markets; not quite sure about the impact of the latest RBA 0.25% interest hike on equity markets but it seems that someone in there is thinking that the world economy does rather well;

...still hold on to my investment (it is correct that I have not sold one investment share even during the 2007/2008 crash) and use index hedges for capital protection (you may also go to the derivative market and sell your investment holding 'short' during downtrends (you still receive the dividend stream), but this option is more expensive because you need to pay the monthly ASX-fee to hold the portfolio' short';

...but even so I hold no equities to trade, I can still play the upside in the markets with index long positions which can be executed at any time day or night

...also remember: my trading horizon is more often than not extremely short

Kind Regards

ananda77
07-10-2009, 09:46 AM
DUMB MONEY:
-fully invested -no worries mate-

...re: Dump Money -according to 'Technical Take'-

1. The "Dumb Money" indicator looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors who historically have been wrong on the market: 1) Investor Intelligence; 2) Market Vane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call ratio.

-The "Dumb Money" indicator remains extremely bullish, and it actually ticked up this past week- The "dumb money" or retail investor (sorry, no offense meant to those who have been right for the last 3 months) continues to buy the dips aggressively.

2. The "smart money" indicator is a composite of the following data: 1) public to specialist short ratio; 2) specialist short to total short ratio; 3) SP100 option traders. The "smart money" is neutral and has yet to tip its hand. Company insiders continue to sell shares to an extreme degree (4:1 ratio -data point 04 October 2009)

...and as the market has shown so far this week, the up tick in the "Dumb Money" indicator and the extremes seen in the Rydex asset data would suggest continued buying on the dips. The upward bias in prices remains until the extremes in bullish sentiment are unwound.

Kind Regards

ananda77
07-10-2009, 08:19 PM
...SPX 500/NYSE current support tests: data point 06 October 2009:

-SPX 500 Pivot Point Support Test (see attachment)
-SPX 500 Six Month Support Line Test (see attachment)
-NYSE October 2008 High Support Line Test (see attachment)

...all tests successful; however, it pays to be cautious because:

-Institutional Net Buy/Sell in Distribution!! It will be very interesting to see if Institutions will change their stance regarding equities in the near future or if they keep on net-selling into the current rally

Kind Regards

ananda77
08-10-2009, 01:46 AM
data point: 07 October 2009

-Institutional BUY/SELL still in distribution, closer to zero neutral (see attachment) (institutions responsible for over 50% of market action; to hold a position to the contrary means 'getting steamrolled' (caution!!)
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/attach/png.gif
-liquidity inflows
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/attach/png.gif
-NYSE Momentum
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/attach/png.gif

Kind Regards

ananda77
08-10-2009, 06:31 AM
US Calendar:
U.S. MBA mortgage applications rose 16.4%; refis climb 18.2%, purchases up 13.2%
Consumer credit: Estimate -$15.B, consensus -$10.0B, prior -$21.6B
U.S. consumer credit sank -$11.9 bln in Aug, below median -$9.0 bln vs -$18.9 bln

Bond Market:
NY Fed purchased $1.3 bln Treasuries maturing betweeen Feb 2020 - Feb 2026
U.S. 10-year auction awarded at 3.21%, solid 3.01 cover, 47.4% indirect bid

Stock Market:
...SPX 500 little changed so far with market direction tilting to the bearish side with decliners comfortably outpacing advancers but cautious buying the intraday dips apparent on the NYSE throughout the session; despite the tilt, an intraday test of the Sep 29 Peak *1069 or the Sep 17 Peak *1074 remains a possibility before a shallow 1-2 day corrective pull-back could affirm *1041/*1048 congestion; consumer credit seems to be what the market is waiting for; Alcoa result after the Close
... if this support is successfully defended, further gains include a second go at *1080 initially with potential to test the important *1100/*1119 upper barrier range in a possible double top set-up
...failure to penetrate the important *1100/*1119 upper barrier range will leave the market wide open to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 targeting the July low at 869.

-Dollar charges back, moves higher against Japan's yen

-Trading Strategy:

CONSERVATIVE-
-Vanguard cautions investors on rally
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-surge-prompts-warning-to-investors-2009-10-06
-Whalen: Q4 “Going to Be a Bank Bloodbath” (Institutional Risk Analysis)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/whalen-real-economy-is-dying-q4-going-to-be-a-bloodbath/

-CONTRARIAN-
Q&A with Prechter (EW)
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/qa-with-prechter-technical-vs-fundamental-analysis-3091.html
Marc Faber: “Monetary policy in the United States will stay expansionary”
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/marc-faber-monetary-policy-in-the-united-states-will-stay-expansionary.html

DAY TRADER:
short-term bullish over the next up to 10 days with bias for a double top pattern followed by 20% (+) correction > target SPX 500 *869 if *1100/*1119 upper barrier range cannot be taken out

DUMB MONEY (The Technical Take):
fully invested -no worries mate-

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon7.gif

ananda77
09-10-2009, 01:40 AM
-(StockTiming.com)- data point: 08 October 2009

Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels

http://i35.tinypic.com/28r1shy.jpg

Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows

http://i33.tinypic.com/n5hqmd.jpg

NYSE Momentum and Srength

http://i34.tinypic.com/263ab8i.jpg

Bond Market:
U.S. 30-year reopening awarded at 4.009%, tepid 2.37 cover, 34.5% indirect bid

Stock Market:
...maybe visitng the Mangere/Otahuhu/Manurewa weekend markets will teach market pundits what real 'Bargains' look like because there ain't no bargains in the SPX 500 no more...

David Rosenberg: ...”even under the most generous of all valuation metrics coming out of recession, the fabled “normalized” P/E ratio using “smoothed” 10-year trailing earnings, now stands at 19x (versus 13x at the March lows), which is more than a 20% premium to the long-run average of 15x-16x. Assessing market valuation using the Tobin Q, equities are currently overvalued by 40%. And, never before have we seen the S&P 500 rally 60% over an interval in which there were 2.7 million job losses. What is normal is that we see more than 2 million jobs being created during a rally as large as this. In other words, we are witnessing a market event that is outside the distribution curve.

...SPX 500 laboured hard to break above the Sept 29 key resistance *1070 and managed an intraday High *1071; direction in the markets quite bullish but apparent '(+) tick buying power' remains zapped by bearish sell-off interference especially towards day end trading; advancers comfortably outpacing decliners, so if the market decides to take the expected shallow breather down to the *1041/*1048 congestion, this support looks it could be successfully defended;
...the result of a successful defense include a second go at *1080 initially with potential to test the important *1100/*1119 upper barrier range in a possible double top set-up
...failure to penetrate the important *1100/*1119 upper barrier range will leave the market wide open to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 targeting the July low at 869.

Trading Strategy:

http://i38.tinypic.com/72ytcn.jpg ...as long as Institutions remain in Distribution hedge is very tight with a 'short bias' although liquidity and strength remain positive; Institutions can be Distribution for quite some time without an major break in liquidity and strength

(as of tonight: the possibility SPX 500 day-trade)

-Financial Insight and daily Market Timing Signals: current posture >watch this space for 09 October 2009

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
10-10-2009, 10:19 AM
-(StockTiming.com)- data point 09 October 2009

NYSE Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels
http://i36.tinypic.com/xmvnyp.gif
NYSE Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i37.tinypic.com/15n81hu.gif
NYSE M0mentum and Strength
http://i37.tinypic.com/30bjiqb.gif
NYSE M0mentum and Strength

Stockmarket:
...institutional accumulation should really go with a strong market advance but NYSE momentum weaker; SPX 500 mixed to higher but remains hesitant to eclipse resistance from the Sep 29 Peak *1069 and the Sep 17 Peak *1074. At these levels and due to the holiday weekend, risk is for a shallow 1-2 day corrective pullback to affirm *1047/*1051 congestion before turning north again. A successful defense of that support range should foster an additional 2-3 trading days worth of gains to retest the Sep High *1080/*1100 target range en route to a major double top. Failure in that zone will leave the market vulnerable to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 targeting a retest of the July Low * 869.

...as far as market internals goes, a bit strange; the market labours up, the direction is neutral with a tilt to the bearish side, up-volume almost matches down-volume, and advancers go almost quit pro quo with decliners;
...maybe Stocktiming.com is correct in its assertion that as Marty Chenard mentions: "If you look at the Institutional Buying & Selling chart, you can see that they have been buying less while continuing to increase their selling (profit taking). Institutional Investors have been selling slow enough for the market to absorb their selling. This is a prescription for an unusually sharp down day when the market fails to absorb the amount of Institutional selling."

-Financial Insight and daily Market Timing Signals: current posture >SPX 500 Cash -09 10 09

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
10-10-2009, 02:49 PM
The Bullish Short Term Take:
Barton M. Biggs runs Traxis Partners, a multi-billion dollar hedge fund based in New York City. He formerly held the title of "chief global strategist" for Morgan Stanley and was with that firm for 30 years.

Friday, October 9, 2009
...although Barton Biggs is extremely BEARISH in the Long Term as in /-LONGTERM: THE BEAR ed.-/ in the short term, the markets are -Only Halfway Through Stock Market Rebound-

Traxis analyzed 14 past bear markets—ranging from gold to US stocks—and found that when markets dipped more than 40 percent, the average rally off the lows was about 72 percent, he said. /No wonder, HFT's are chasing stocks into the Close -data point 09 October 2009- ed./ http://i36.tinypic.com/2n99js9.jpg Since the Dow is up only about 45 percent and the S&P about 52 percent, the market still has a lot of room to the upside, Biggs said. (But if you do the math 72% above the S&P 666 low = 1145. That is only +7% from today's close; is that "a lot of room to the upside?" Seven percent is 2 weeks of returns nowadays)

Kind Regards

ananda77
13-10-2009, 07:21 AM
Invetrics > Financial Insights and Stock Market Timing Signals<
[DJIA Index Timing Signal - Current Posture: LONG --data point 12 October 2009]

Stocktiming >Technical Market Analysis< data point 09 October 2009
http://i34.tinypic.com/16lxzzq.jpg
Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels
http://i38.tinypic.com/2094k86.jpg
Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i33.tinypic.com/2mw9z5w.jpg
NYSE Momentum and Strength

Bond Market data point 09 October 2009:
Clubbing: Treasuries got trashed on a combination of chatter on upcoming tightening, a crowd running out of flattening positions with ugly positions getting squeezed and a sprinkling of inflation concern as the global economy heals. Coming on the heels of an auction that can best be described as a "dog," there was talk the Fed was "testing" the waters on draining liquidity as a lead-up to the inevitable (hopefully) tightening. The market tanked, reportedly dragging in some mortgage players and doing serious damage to the longer end. The 10-and-30-yrs were run back off to levels last seen following the last FOMC as players fled the spreads, pulling out of the curve flattening plays that had been generally leading trade since the FOMC. The longer durations added 16 to 17 plus basis points on the day in a swift and brutal clubbing

Stock Market >Day Trader update< data point 12 October 2009:
...SPX 500 traded higher early to challenge the *1080 level before correcting intraday but the bullish direction could extend the index higher on a follow through basis with potential to test the important *1100/*1119 upper barrier range in a possible double top set-up; watch out for any further weakness/break of support in the NYSE Momentum/Strength
...failure in that zone will leave the market vulnerable to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 targeting a retest of the July low at *869

Kind Regards

ananda77
14-10-2009, 07:00 AM
Stocktiming >Technical Market Analysis< data point 12 October 2009

http://i33.tinypic.com/ofrivb.jpg
Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels
http://i33.tinypic.com/14wsui0.jpg
Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i37.tinypic.com/90924n.jpg
NYSE Momentum and Strength

US Economic Calendar -data point 13 October 2009-
more tomoorow

Bond Market -data point 13 October 2009-
NY Fed purchased $2.95 bln Treasuries maturing ifrom May 2016 - Aug 2019 (Fed does one of its last planned buybacks in bonds)

Stock Market >Day Trader update< data point 13 October 2009
...a super bearish trading start seemingly turned into a neutral to bullish session; but the fact remains, up/down volume ratio so far remains negative and decliners substantially are outpacing advancers (scenario intact with 1 more hour to go to the NYSE Close) SPX 500 dipped to *1067 intraday and in the meantime has almost recovered all of its point losses
...the hedgeing set-up went into 'sell' mode yesterday http://i33.tinypic.com/2mfn6p.jpg but runs almost neutral as today's recovery indicates that the index could surge higher on a follow through basis and the potential to test the important *1100/*1119 upper barrier range for a possible double top set-up remains still in play;
...failure in that zone will leave the market vulnerable to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 targeting a retest of the July low at *869

Kind Regards

ananda77
15-10-2009, 06:50 AM
Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 13 October 2009-

http://i34.tinypic.com/333d3bl.jpg

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 13 October 2009-


http://i33.tinypic.com/14ietz9.jpg
Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels

http://i36.tinypic.com/316258z.jpg
Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows

http://i33.tinypic.com/2gvosw5.jpg
NYSE Momentum and Strength

US Economic Calendar -data point 14 October 2009
-U.S. retail sales slumped 1.5% in Sep, above median -2.0%; +0.5% ex-auto
-U.S. import prices rose 0.1% in Sep, below median 0.3%; export prices -0.3%
-U.S. MBA mortgage applications index -1.8%; refis -0.1 % and purchases -5.0%

Bond Market -data point 14 October 2009-
-Treasury yields shot higher with stocks on Intel, JPM earnings; curve steepened with the short end leading

Stock Market: Day Trader update -data point 14 October 2009-
...as expected, SPX 500 gapped open to extend to a new 52-week High *1087 this morning on 'better-than-expected' earnings data and currently seems to consolidate between *1080/*1090 for the reat of the trading session
...another push higher tomorrow could be expected to challenge *1097/*1100 target range which could turn out to be the expected exhaustion point from which a double top is established that could be followed by a sharp bearish reversal
...failure in that zone will leave the market vulnerable to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 targeting a retest of the July Low *869; initially, a move back below the 50-day MA at *1027 would confirm that a larger bearish shakeout is indeed underway

...NO GUARANTEES, but to play this potential, the following strategy is deployed:
-bias: SPX 500 at a double top
-stay with current short *887
-initial target for review *915
-exit stop: *1011

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

arco
15-10-2009, 03:14 PM
.
Ichimoku System is still long on H4 with thick Kumo support.
Kumo is thinning on D1 chart which shows and element of slowing.

The system gave a complete set of bullish signals in early October
and here we can see the triggers and result.

Mini S&P Globex H4 chart

http://i38.tinypic.com/20jiow4.gif

ananda77
15-10-2009, 04:57 PM
A77, I'm a bit confused by your reference to a double top ... While I don't have great charting tools and rely on freebees, I can't identify the double-top you're referring too. It looks more like one-way traffic to me ... Could you elaborate a bit? TIA.

Hi Belgarion: the second top is not yet established and is supposed to be the May - July - August - trendline resistance *1097/*1100 psych barrier here seen in the chart (the supposed top *1097/*1100 would be an 'uneven spread double top');
http://i37.tinypic.com/2625r0p.jpg if the market breaks above trendline resistance, it will be 'Blow-Off Territory' at best, considering that current SPX 500 level is based on earnings expectations of USD 83.00 (too optimistic and not very realistic);

Kind Regards

ananda77
16-10-2009, 05:33 AM
Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 15 October 2009-

http://i36.tinypic.com/2ccv19x.jpg

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 14 October 2009-


http://i37.tinypic.com/1zp5lr6.jpg
Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels

http://i37.tinypic.com/2w2n3o9.jpg
Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows

http://i35.tinypic.com/qsv5na.jpg
NYSE Momentum and Strength (if the S&P pulls back after moving up to its upcoming *1121 resistance, then the Momentum will be in danger of breaking the support at that time.

US Economic Calendar -data point 15 October 2009-
# U.S. CPI rose 0.2% in Sep, above median 0.1%; core +0.2%, above median 0.1%
# U.S. Philly Fed to slipped to 11.5 in Oct, below median 12.5 vs 14.1 in Sep
# NY Empire State index surged to 34.6 in Oct, above median 18.0 vs 18.88 Sep (Mixed Business: "The lack of usefulness for the Fed's Business Outlook surveys can be seen with a quick comparison between the Philly report and the NY Empire State. NY Fed shows an extremely strong pickup in the manufacturing sector as the index improved a whopping 83% to 34.57 in October while the Philly report showed business conditions declined 18%. It is impossible to discern which survey is telling the truth about the state of the manufacturing sector.)
# U.S. initial jobless claims fell 10k to 514k, below median 525k for Oct 10 week
# U.S. 10/3 Continuing Claims 5992K actual 6067K prior

Bond Market -data point 15 October 2009-
Treasury yields reversed lower with stocks on-fact of Goldman, Citi earnings
Treasury yields rebounded with mostly firmer data after dropping with weak stocks

Stock Market: Day Trader update -data point 15 October 2009-
...SPX 500 suffered a mild sell-the-fact reaction to this mornings' earnings data and the index traded down to intraday *1086 as a result;
...the Oct 12 Peak *1079 remains a floor and there is a good chance for one more push higher in the next 1-2 days to challenge May-Jul-Aug Highs trendline resistance at *1097/*1100 psych barrier;
...in that range, the market should reach an exhaustion point that will establish an uneven spread double top, followed by a sharp bearish reversal that could leave the market wide open to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 targeting a retest of the July Low *869.
...trading initially below the 50-day MA at *1033 would confirm that a larger bearish shakeout is indeed underway
...Google (first call 5.42 v 4.92) and IBM (first call 2.38 versus 2.05) report earnings after the Close and if the market is impressed could be the trigger for the expected jolt up

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

arco
16-10-2009, 08:44 AM
Arco, Was that english? ... ;)



Japanese :)
"Ichimoku Kinko Hyo" actually means "one glance cloud chart" or more appropriately "Instant view of the balance chart"

Heres the daily chart for you taken at the same time. Price has moved up now to 1091.25

http://i37.tinypic.com/91b4gm.gif

Phaedrus
16-10-2009, 12:38 PM
It can be difficult to discern Buy/Sell signals on an Ichimoku chart because of the multiplicity of plots. This method of directly marking these signals makes it easier to identify them and to see their relative strength. Evaluating their worth becomes very much easier.

The colour of the SP500 plot shows whether the basic Tenkan/Kijun setup is Bullish or Bearish. (This is controlled by whether the Red line on Arco's chart is above (Bullish) or below (Bearish) the Blue line).

Arrows mark Tenkan/Kijun crossovers, the source of Ichimoku buy/sell signals.
The colour of the arrow shows whether it is a Bullish crossover (blue) or a Bearish crossover (red).

The SIZE of the arrow indicates the relative strength of the signals, based on whether they occur when the plot is above, below or in the Kumo Cloud. (Support/Resistance zone)

The trend ribbon along the bottom of the chart shows us whether the Kumo (Support/Resistance Cloud) is Bullish (shaded Green on Arco's charts) or Bearish (shaded Red) This provides another means of further evaluating the strength of any given signal.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/IchiSP1016.gif

One big advantage of such a presentation is that it readily enables the backtesting of decades of data so that the historical profitability of Ichimoku trading signals can be directly compared with those of other systems. Backtesting also enables us to address those tricky questions such as "should weak signals be ignored?" "Should neutral signals be ignored?" "Is the Chikou
element of Ichimoku best dispensed with?" "Are 9 and 26 the optimum parameters for Tenkan/Kijun crossovers?" etc.

A couple of quick observations from the chart :- Strong signals are not necessarily followed by large movements, as at point (1). Weak signals sometimes are followed by large movements, as at point (2). I have seen it stated that "Eliminating the Chikou Span and ignoring weak crossovers
enhances the traditional Ichimoku method’s accuracy." This would mean that signals such as that at (2) would be ignored - a pity, yes?

sharer
16-10-2009, 01:36 PM
Aha! Now i'm getting the idea - just an inkling, a slight lifting of the kumo:)

Phaedrus: The examples given show the signal strength factor can't be taken as the textbook quotes suggest. It is puzzling - could the correlation even be inverse w.r.t. price chart?
As to timing, how do these signals generally relate to OBV, do we know yet?

ananda77
17-10-2009, 05:15 AM
The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 14 October 2009-
http://i38.tinypic.com/21edsm1.jpg Major Resistance 2.7% up where the 2007 Bear Market Trendline meets the 50% Fibbonacci level


...Earnings Guide before Market Open:
Bank of America BAC (first call) -0.07 (year ago) 0.15
General Electric GE (first call) 0.20 (year ago) 0.45
Halliburton HAL (first call) 0.26 (year ago) 0.76
Mattel MAT (first call) 0.63 (year ago) 0.66

Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 15 October 2009-

http://i35.tinypic.com/35chcg0.jpg

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 15 October 2009-


http://i33.tinypic.com/21jxj6h.jpg Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels

http://i37.tinypic.com/2ic8emw.jpg Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows

http://i35.tinypic.com/2rmqpo5.jpg NYSE Momentum and Strength

US Economic Calendar -data point 16 October 2009-
-U.S. industrial production rose 0.7% in Sep, above median 0.1%; cap use 70.5%
-U. Michigan sentiment (prelim) fell to 69.4 in Oct, well below med 73 vs 73.5 Sep

Bond Market -data point 16 October 2009-
-U.S. TIC net capital inflows rose $10.2 bln in Aug vs -$107.7 bln outflow in Jul
-U.S. budget deficit set to narrow to -$59.0 bln in Sep (med -$60 bln) vs -$111.4 bln

Stock Market: Day Trader update -data point 16 October 2009-
David Rosenberg (Gluskin/Sheff): "S&P 500 is now de facto pricing in 4.8% /GDP growth/ed. a few basis points shy of what it was discounting in the summer/fall of 2007. And, backing out the fair-value P/E from the corporate bond market, and yields have been backing up sizeably in recent weeks, the S&P 500 is now pricing in $85 of operating earnings, which we think will be, at best, a 2013 story"

...SPX 500 pressured to intraday Low *1082 so far as U.S. stocks pull back following disappointing results from Dow components BofA. GE, and IBM, but the Oct 12 Peak *1079 has not been on the block yet
...as long as trading action stays above *1079 through to a Close, chances are still in play, the market will challenge the May-July-August Highs trendline resistance *1097/*1100 barrier over the next couple of days
...however, given that institutions have accumulated in a technical down trend over the past few days, the market could establish an uneven spread double top followed by a sharp bearish reversal at this major resistance point
...failing that zone will leave the market vulnerable to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 with the July Low *869 as the target; initially, trading below the 50-day MA at *1033 would confirm a larger bearish shakeout is indeed underway

SPX 500 Hedge:

http://i37.tinypic.com/qq30gy.jpg triggered yesterday, but as long as institutions' buy/sell spread remains above zero, the hedge (index spread) is only tilting slightly 'short' so far

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

arco
17-10-2009, 08:18 AM
As mentioned in post #17 - Kumo is thinning on D1 chart which shows and element of slowing.

Already breaking through on the H1. H4 close to breaking.

http://i37.tinypic.com/3rn6d.gif

Phaedrus
18-10-2009, 03:25 PM
Phaedrus: The examples given show the signal strength factor can't be taken as the textbook quotes suggest. It is puzzling....
Yes, it is a bit unsettling that some "weak" signals appear to be (and in fact are) better than some "strong" signals. Nevertheless, over the long term all doubt as to their relative merit is removed. Backtesting the Ichimoku system on the SP500 over 10 years or so tells us that following ALL signals would lead to a 25% loss, but by acting on Strong signals ONLY, a 20% gain results. Quite a difference. So, with a lot of bath water thrown out, I guess it is inevitable that a few babies go with it!


As to timing, how do these signals generally relate to OBV, do we know yet?The OBV appears to be of limited usefulness with this Index. It is more helpful when applied to stocks, in my experience.

sharer
19-10-2009, 12:36 PM
Yes, it is a bit unsettling that some "weak" signals appear to be (and in fact are) better than some "strong" signals. Nevertheless, over the long term all doubt as to their relative merit is removed. Backtesting the Ichimoku system on the SP500 over 10 years or so tells us that following ALL signals would lead to a 25% loss, but by acting on Strong signals ONLY, a 20% gain results.

Phaedrus,it seems then that you now have the answer to your original question:
"I have seen it stated that "Eliminating the Chikou Span and ignoring weak crossovers enhances the traditional Ichimoku method’s accuracy." This would mean that signals such as that at (2) would be ignored - a pity, yes? " In other words, "No!" That is, we can tolerate the seemingly lost opportunity of an occasional gain from a "weak" signal in favour of a more likely, but smaller, long term gain from using only the "strong" ones.

Then we might wonder about the algorithm behind the original chart post which is effectively classifying the SignalStrength into seven categories, because now you have proven that only the "strongest" category is useful.
In the long term. (the komu descends again ..)

"Ph: ... with a lot of bath water thrown out, I guess it is inevitable that a few babies go with it! ..."

LOL. i'm now just waiting for a chance to throw this into a conversation somewhere! Cheers :)

ananda77
20-10-2009, 05:12 AM
The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 16 October 2009-
http://i33.tinypic.com/b5l6qq.jpgapproaching Major Resistance where the 2007 Bear Market Trendline meets the 50% Fibbonacci level


...Earnings Guide before Market Open -data point 19 October 2009-
Hasbro HAS (first call)0.93 (year ago)0.89
...Earnings Guide after Market Close -data point 19 October 2009-
Apple AAPL (first call)1.42 (year ago)1.26

Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 18 October 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i33.tinypic.com/200515.jpg

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 16 October 2009-
http://i35.tinypic.com/14aiuk0.jpgInstitutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level
http://i37.tinypic.com/ef2mw.jpgLong Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i35.tinypic.com/4ggsgo.jpghttp://i38.tinypic.com/nbx5pt.jpg NYSE Momentum and Strength (close-up)

US Economic Calendar -data point 19 October 2009-
NAHB reported its homebulider sentiment index dipped to 18 in October, from 19 in September; the index had been improving since early in the year

Bond Market -data point 19 October 2009-
12:58 ET 10-Yr: +01/32..3.408%.. USD/JPY: 90.6950.. EUR/USD: 1.4948 Backed Off: Trade is sleepily sliding in quiet trade into midday with the 3-7-yrs seeing the widest swings since the Fed's denial that their talks with dealers on slowing accommodation meant anything at all. The market got some short coverage but little more on the non-news while curve trades were swung flatter but rebounded fairly easily. The quiet trade has seen a lot of churning back and forth after that initial pop and with little new information to go on and a light calendar on the week, the market is eyeballing stocks. Trade was also getting some bounce from backlash over the Baron's cover story asking if it was rate hike time, which added some drag to prices heading into the day. The 10-yr could get caught in a 3.9% to 3.425% range without some incentive while the curve will push back at the 242.5 level with the 2-10-yr yield spread now 243.5. Supply coming online has been concentrated in the shorter maturities helping add some drag while global bonds remained mixed to lower. The dollar got hit as the index is sniffing around for last week's 75.21 low as rates are seen on hold. The euro has pulled back to near the day's best levels, but may lack the impetus to punch through Thursday's 1.4968 high, while likely to get stuck near 135.50 yen per. The yen continues to skate around the 90.50 to 91.00 area and will also be caught in a information-vacuum without something more interesting than earnings and generic Fed-speak. Vice Kohn has a late engagement (16:30).

Stock Market: Day Trader update -data point 19 October 2009-
...with a Close above the Oct 12 Peak *1079 Friday, the SPX 500 successfully defended support and is trading higher based on continued earnings optimism
…as mantioned last Friday, as long as trading action stays above *1079 through to a Close, chances are still in play, the market will challenge the May-July-August Highs trendline resistance *1097/*1100 barrier over the next couple of days
...failing that zone will leave the market vulnerable to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 with the July Low *869 as the target; initially, trading below the 50-day MA at *1033 would confirm a larger bearish shakeout is indeed underway

Current Market Comments:
David Rosenberg (Gluskin/Sheff) ...The Unsustainable Revenue-Less Recovery > To date, an amazing 78% of the S&P 500 companies have thus far beaten consensus estimates. Then again, maybe this is less amazing than meets the eye since the consensus of street analysts have taken such a knife to their estimates that Q3 operating EPS is seen declining 25% from what were already depressed recession profits of a year ago. The WSJ ran with an article stating that because companies are being rewarded by the marketplace to such a great extent for beating their EPS estimates via relentless cost-cutting moves, executives are saying that “they are hesitant to reinvest such profits into their businesses.” This strategy is being deployed by so many firms that it is having a broad based dampening impact on private aggregate demand and hence corporate revenues — enticing firms to take even more costs out of the system; either pricing power/revenues improve, and there was certainly no sign of this in the just-released National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey, or the $80+ of earnings currently embedded in equity market valuation will have to be revisited, revised and reduced. It will be at that point — and the timing is next to impossible, but it is a “when”, not an “if” — that the stock market embarks on its true corrective phase.

Invetrics Market Commentary ...noticed consistent profit taking action every time a company reported strong earnings last week, e.g., Alcoa (AA: 14.04 -2.23%), Goldman Sachs (GS: 184.37 -2.26%), and IBM (IBM: 121.64 -4.95%). Several ETFs representing major stock market sectors and International markets switched to Short last Friday; if (and only if) the theme of selling the good earnings reports continues next week, we may see the market move lower from here. This will become a certainty if one of the well known high tech companies misses its expected earnings

Guy M Lerner (Technical Take) ...In a market driven by Dollar devaluation and "liquidity" this is what I would expect: there will be sudden down drafts that should be scooped up rather quickly as long as investor sentiment remains as bullish as it has been.

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

winner69
20-10-2009, 05:17 AM
S&P just failed to get to 1100 earlier .... maybe not today but soon .... and then 1200 before Xmas

Phaedrus
20-10-2009, 08:13 PM
Phaedrus, it seems then that you now have the answer to your original question as to whether ignoring weak crossovers enhances the traditional Ichimoku method’s accuracy.Well, Sharer, I thought so too - until I backtested Ichimoku against the NZSX50 Index since its inception. Acting on all Ichimoku signals regardless of their strength gave a total return of 75% (vs 77% Buy/Hold) If all weak signals were ignored, the return fell to just 32%!


Then we might wonder about the algorithm behind the original chart post which is effectively classifying the Signal Strength into seven categories, because now you have proven that only the "strongest" category is useful.See above!


The komu descends again ....Indeed.

ananda77
21-10-2009, 05:38 AM
The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 19 October 2009-


http://i37.tinypic.com/166j0as.jpg http://i37.tinypic.com/1zfiqgx.jpghttp://i33.tinypic.com/2j0hvgp.jpg ...the monthly SPX 500 indicators signal a new bull market phase, but with the SPX 500 below the 2007 upper bear market resistance line and the up/down trending indicator negative divergent, for a continued bull market condition, the resistance needs to be taken out;


...Earnings Guide before Market Open -data point 20 October 2009-
Pfizer PFE (first call)0.48 (year ago)0.62
Lockheed LMT (first call)1.83 (year ago)1.92
DuPont DD (first call)0.33 (year ago)0.56
Coca-Cola KO (first call)0.82 (year ago)0.83
Caterpillar CAT (first call)0.06 (year ago)1.39

...Earnings Guide after Market Close -data point 20 October 2009-
Yahoo! YHOO (first call)0.07 (year ago)0.09

Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals (may adjust at Market Open) -data point 20 October 2009-

http://i33.tinypic.com/34pflt2.jpg

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 19 October 2009-
http://i33.tinypic.com/dvm5cl.jpgInstitutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level http://i34.tinypic.com/28mmptj.jpgLong Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows http://i37.tinypic.com/296hldx.jpghttp://i33.tinypic.com/2ahq1l.jpg NYSE Momentum and Strength (close-up)
http://i37.tinypic.com/2cmqfiw.jpgdaily SPX 500 ETF Volume Trending

US Economic Calendar -data point 20 October 2009-
US PPI SEP (actual) -0.6% (forecast) -0.7% (last) 1.7%
US PPI Y/Y SEP (actual) -4.6% (forecast) -4.9% (last) -4.3%
US PPI ex-Food & Energy SEP (actual) -0.1% (forecast) 0.1% (last) 0.2%
US PPI ex-Food & Energy Y/Y SEP (actual) 1.8% (forecast) 1.9% (last) 2.3%
US Housing Starts SEP (actual) 0.590M (forecast) 0.615M (last) 0.598M
US Building Permits SEP (actual) 0.573M (forecast) 0.600M (last) 0.580M
US Housing Completions SEP (actual) 0,693M (forecast) 0.752M (last) 0.760M

Stock Market: Day Trader update -data point 20 October 2009-

…although slightly lower today.,the SPX 500 made it to intraday Low *1086 so far, the Oct 12 Peak *1079 from last Friday still stands; the bearish tone in the market has been building since the Open and decliners outweighed advancers almost 3:1
… however, as long as trading action stays above *1079 through to a Close, chances are still in play, the market will challenge the May-July-August Highs trendline resistance *1097/*1100 barrier over the next couple of days
...failing that zone will leave the market vulnerable to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 with the July Low *869 as the target; initially, a violation of SPX 500 *1079 at a Close would indicate a short-term top is in place and trading below the 50-day MA at *1038 would confirm a larger bearish shakeout is indeed underway


http://i36.tinypic.com/157c2th.jpg SPX 500 hedge only tilting 'short' for now;
important trigger points for additonal 'shorts': -Close below*1079/-institutional buy/sell spread below ZERO/-invetrics 'sell' signal

Current Market Comments -data point 20 October 2009- Brett Steenbarger (Traderfeed -Exploiting the edge from historical market patterns):

http://i33.tinypic.com/2im4yrm.jpg 19-October-2009 ...The TICK that is specific to Dow 30 stocks ($TICKI, above) moves much quicker than the NYSE TICK, given the fact that the Dow issues trade frequently and are prominent components of baskets of stocks that are involved in program trading. When we see persistent negative readings in $TICKI, with values of -20 and lower, it suggests that multiple large traders are selling baskets of stocks--a nice short-term gauge of shift in sentiment, in the case of the recent market
20 October 2009 ...With the morning weakness in stocks, we have moved back into a multiday trading range. We continue to see a somewhat elevated number of 20-day new lows among stocks: over 400 so far today across the NYSE, NASDAQ, and ASE. Note how small cap stocks (IWM; above) have struggled at resistance around 62.50. I continue to view the recent action as part of a topping process that will ultimately lead to a break below the lows of the past several days. Especially on my radar: commodity related energy and raw materials shares, which have been market leaders. Should we get a pullback in commodity markets, perhaps as a result of a dollar bounce, we could see that weigh on stocks as a whole.

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

sharer
21-10-2009, 02:29 PM
Well, Sharer, I thought so too - until I backtested Ichimoku against the NZSX50 Index since its inception. Acting on all Ichimoku signals regardless of their strength gave a total return of 75% (vs 77% Buy/Hold) ...

Interesting discussion Phaedrus. To me your result above is very persuasive.
(Summarising in case my understanding was defective):
Using the entire NZSX50 dataset, acting on all Ichimoku signals returned 75%, while not acting on any signal (?=buy&hold) returned 77%.

I think this can only mean the Ichimoku "method" is proven to be useless.

Or at least that part of it that outputs those "signals" & their "strength".
Your observations above & in earlier posts indicate it could be a very expensive mistake to act on that part of the routine.

Still, some people, seemingly, have found ways to benefit from Ichimoku. In my case just from contemplating Arco's beautiful demonstrations of currency trading possibilities, & Hoop's efforts and examples. None of which i really understand, so far it is mainly an aesthetic experience. Considerable quantities of lucre seem to be at risk, so it still seems worthwhile to simplify the "method" and sift the dross in search of gold dust.

I wonder how often the "areas of interest" - gray boxes in Arco's recent posts - actually turn out indeed to be places where buy/sell action was required, & whether the eventual results were actually better or worse than a daily coin toss?

Phaedrus
21-10-2009, 04:00 PM
Ichimoku signals seem to perform relatively poorly in the presence of a long-term uptrend. I wonder if it is no accident that it is most widely used in FX trading where longterm trends are practically non-existent. Just a theory.
Keep in mind that in the presence of a steady uptrend, it is pretty much impossible to beat a "Buy and Hold" approach anyway.
It is also possible that Ichimoku provides a superlative "one glance cloud chart or more appropriately Instant view of the balance chart" even though its specific Buy/Sell signals may be mediocre and can be outperformed by other systems. Maybe it works superbly on FX but not so well on stocks.
It is very difficult to evaluate this system when its performance characteristics vary so widely depending on the backtest period and what you are back-testing it against. In an attempt to remove the "longterm trend bias" I have been backtesting the SP500 on the period as marked in this chart, such that "Buying and Holding" gave zero return over nearly 12 years. Over this period, acting on all Ichimoku signals gave a loss of 25%, while acting only on Strong signals gave a gain of 20%.
Re the NZSX50 test data, to me it seems very odd indeed that by ignoring the "weakest" signals, the return collapses from an already poor 75% to just 32%. The conclusion that under these test conditions "weak" signals are no weaker than "strong" signals seems inescapable. Since this distinction is mediated by the relative position of the Kumo cloud, this in turn casts some element of doubt on the validity or worth of this concept when applied to Indices or stocks.
Time for me to begin backtesting some stocks, I think.
Afterthought :- Am I struggling to re-invent the wheel here? Does anyone know of any definitive, authoritative statistics as to the profitability of Ichimoku as applied to stocks?

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP500test.gif

drillfix
22-10-2009, 02:15 AM
Afterthought :- Am I struggling to re-invent the wheel here? Does anyone know of any definitive, authoritative statistics as to the profitability of Ichimoku as applied to stocks?


Phaedrus, funny you should mention Ichimoku.

Firstly (sidetracking,)
Tonight (wed), while I was out and attended a Australian Technical Analysis Association monthly meeting and they had a guest speaker named Jake Bernstein giving a talk for about one hour. It was great and interesting night.
(Most of Jakes talk would certainly challenge much of the perceived factual technicals we use and certainly does give or add to perspective and/or perception).

Next point is, while I was there, afterwards, I met a fella there who actually also posts on HC, nick Paulbooma, and he actually uses Ichimoku and also stated to me the similar needs as yourself.

The problem with Ichimoku he says is both the learning material and a type of authority on it with available resources. Unlike how Steve Nison brought and made the Japanese Candlestick techniques to the west with alot of literature and meaning transposed, it made the training, knowledge parallel for Western Technials to associate with.

As you already know just a google search of Ichimoku there are sites that show some charts and briefly explain by definition what it is and kinda how to use it, but no actual real what I try to define as benchmark to.

I too am also keen to pursue more knowledge, techniques and resources on this, so when and if I come across some, I will send you a PM if you wish.

Cheers for now.


Add Edit:
Phraedrus, here is a link paul posted a little while ago: http://docs.google.com/present/view?id=ddnp2p42_25g2nwdddb&invite=923476245

ananda77
22-10-2009, 05:57 AM
The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 20 October 2009-

http://i35.tinypic.com/2gwyssp.jpg

Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals (may adjust at Market Open) -data point 21 October 2009-

http://i35.tinypic.com/1zwf21v.jpg

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 20 October 2009-
http://i35.tinypic.com/14jceit.jpgInstitutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels
http://i37.tinypic.com/33bgzyq.jpgLong Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i33.tinypic.com/3atjd.jpgNYSE Momentum and Strengthhttp://i33.tinypic.com/294m42d.jpgMomentum break below 100 translates into high risk for large down side move
http://i37.tinypic.com/wwgbv8.jpgNYSE Down Volume

US Economic Calendar -data point 21 October 2009
U.S. MBA mortgage applications index (actual) -13.7% (last) -1.8% /refis (actual) -16.8% /purchases (actual) -7.6%

Stock Market -data point 22 October 2009-
…based on solid earnings data, market direction has been bullish from the start but returned to a more neutral trading stance in the meantime; although comfortably trading above the Oct 12 SPX 500 Peak *1079, remarkable is that continued selling into each daily rally continues
...still, current bullish potential could lift the market higher in the short term, but the bearish divergences apparent in the daily momentum would indicate, the market may want to take a breather possibly at or just above the 2007-2009 Break at *1122
...failing that zone will leave the market vulnerable to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 with the July Low *869 as the target; initially, a violation of SPX 500 *1079 at a Close would indicate a short-term top is in place and trading below the 50-day MA at *1038 would confirm a larger bearish shakeout is indeed underway

SPX 500 Hedge -data point2 October 2009-
http://i34.tinypic.com/14noajs.jpg ...a seemingly tough call, but I stay with the current 'short' considering it is a SMALL price to pay for investment protection http://i35.tinypic.com/4h8lj4.jpg...could become an interesting Close

Market Commentary -data point 21-October 2009-
Countdown to the next crisis is already under way
Wolfgang Münchau
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b82d2b96-bc02-11de-9426-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1

David Rosenberg (Gluskin/Sheff) -data point 22 October 2009-
...The only thing we really learned in this extremely flashy, seven-month, 60%, nine-point multiple expansion-led rally, is that momentum investing never did become extinguished this cycle. It is really a fascinating commentary on human behavior that so many “investors” are lamenting about how “the train has left the station” without them. Please, give us a giant break! The train has left the station countless of times in the last 10 years but obviously none of these trips lasted very long because the reality is that equities have failed to generate any positive return over this time interval.
As for the here and now, there is another reality. Price gains in the stock market have generally occurred with low volume. There are limited buyers — hedge funds and flash traders — but no sellers (not yet, anyway). And, we saw in yesterday’s decline that volume climbed across the board, and the number of high-volume selloffs is a major red flag that should not be ignored

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

peat
22-10-2009, 08:17 AM
quite a strong selloff at the close and , to me y'days falls started to look more impulsive. volatility would seem to be on the increase..... hmmmmm

arco
22-10-2009, 08:35 AM
The Chikou span has crossed the price plot on the H4, although not yet on Daily.

http://i37.tinypic.com/vh7y87.gif

Like any charting technique Ichimoku needs time and study. In addition to the general components the Japanese use shapes, counts and possibly something not divulged so far . I have read in Japanese texts that there it much more to the system, and that seems to be a closely guarded secret at the moment. After studying the method for a number of years I may have inadvertently discovered some of these 'secrets'. There may be more to find as I work daily with the charts

beacon
22-10-2009, 10:07 AM
My crystal ball says 1200 more likely than 869. Time will tell ...

ananda77
22-10-2009, 10:44 AM
...despite the sell-off, the SPX 500 closed at *1081, above the Oct 12 SPX 500 Peak *1079; although the bulls have gone for a walk, their tails are still visible on the horizon

...the market remains jittery most likely based on news -data point 21 October 2009-

U.S. Credit Contraction Gaining Steam? The contraction in U.S. bank credit is accelerating just as broad metrics of financial market activity reflect diminished dislocation. And, reserve levels remain high despite an unwind in borrowed reserves, as nonborrowed reserves climb, while growth in the money stock and currency in circulation remains rapid. Are credit markets having an increasingly adverse effect on growth even as security market activity normalizes?

...this is not what the market wants to read, but further downside needs to be supported by taking out *1079 decisively which would make the 50-day MA ~*1041 the next downside target;

...trading above todays' SPX 500 intraday High *1101 would indicate a return to the bullish case http://i34.tinypic.com/2yjyr2u.jpg...a tentative top at this stage

arco:
...agree, there is more to a trading system than just looking at it

Kind Regards

arco
22-10-2009, 01:20 PM
Certainly the recent black candle on the hourly gives a bearish slant (perhaps short term to the TL). H4 Chickou is also through the plot and PA testing the Kumo.

http://i37.tinypic.com/1zm11j9.gif

ananda77
22-10-2009, 03:20 PM
Certainly the recent black candle on the hourly gives a bearish slant (perhaps short term to the TL). H4 Chickou is also through the plot and PA testing the Kumo.

...but would your system have warned you early enough to be 'short' last night before the sell-off; because the trading system I follow triggered 'short bias' (as in strategy) on -data point 16 October 2009- as anyone may clearly see on the trading platform (set day by day and not in hindsight, but before or at the market Open) -that remains the main agenda for me
...anyway, the bulls have ONLY 1 more chance to reverse the sell-down and that is to IMMEDIATELY (tonight or tomorrow night) rally back above todays' intraday High *1101

Kind Regards

arco
22-10-2009, 08:15 PM
...but would your system have warned you early enough to be 'short' last night before the sell-off; because the trading system I follow triggered 'short bias' (as in strategy) on -data point 16 October 2009- as anyone may clearly see on the trading platform (set day by day and not in hindsight, but before or at the market Open) -that remains the main agenda for me

Kind Regards

Hello Ananda

I mentioned a weakening showing in the charts a few days ago, but for actual real time entry the H1 time-frame gave various warning signals starting 23 hours prior (to the long black candle). (Chart attached). The 30M chart gave warnings about 27 hrs prior.

'A' denotes the candle where bearish Kumo kicked in. (It was already bearish on the 30m as you can see on the 2nd chart)

H1
http://i34.tinypic.com/2iiyl2f.gif

30m
http://i36.tinypic.com/29diw01.gif

arco
22-10-2009, 08:41 PM
.
On lower time-frames charts I occasionally use a modified Chikou line. Here for interest I have added it to the H1 chart. It also gave an additional warning signal. (Red circle/spot).

http://i38.tinypic.com/wvcqr4.gif

ananda77
23-10-2009, 12:22 AM
Hello Ananda I mentioned a weakening showing in the charts a few days ago, but for actual real time entry the H1 time-frame gave various warning signals starting 23 hours prior (to the long black candle). (Chart attached). The 30M chart gave warnings about 27 hrs prior. 'A' denotes the candle where bearish Kumo kicked in. (It was already bearish on the 30m as you can see on the 2nd chart)

...quite tricky to understand the Ichimoku system with the necessary switching between time frames, but yes, I clearly remember thinking a couple of days ago, how early you mentioned a weakening of trading conditions in the market

Kind Regards

ananda77
23-10-2009, 05:03 AM
The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 22 October 2009-

http://i34.tinypic.com/211qrmv.jpg

Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 21 October 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)
http://i37.tinypic.com/1ze8axl.jpg

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 22 October 2009-

http://i35.tinypic.com/e8mi4z.jpgInstitutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level ...institutional 'sell' continues to trend down for now
http://i36.tinypic.com/rbfias.jpgLong Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i37.tinypic.com/30ixgr4.jpgNYSE Momentum and Strength http://i36.tinypic.com/qmx5d1.jpg(Momentum close-up)...breaking down below support for now -observe the 100-level-

US Economic Calendar -data point 22 October 2009-
Initial Claims 10/17: actual (+11k) 531k (forecast) 525K (prior) 514K
Continuing Claims 10/10: actual 5923K (forecast) 5970K (prior) 5992K
Leading Indicators Sep: actual +1% (forecast) 1.0% (prior) 0.6%
FHFA Housing Price Index Aug: actual -0.3% (forecast) 0.3% (prior) 0.3%

Stock Market -data point 23 October 2009-
...after yesterdays bearish key reversal day, SPX 500 penetrated *1079 and dived to intraday Low *1074 before stabilizing for now; market direction so far remains neutral to slight bullish as some buying has occurred around the support area
...the fact of yesterdays' “quadruple” outside-down day in the DJ Wilshire 5000 (source: Elliot Wave Int.) coupled with dwindling momentum should contain the current counter advance between the *1084/*1091 congestion range
...failing that range, risk of a further sharp sell-off to the 50-day MA *1041initially increases substantially and looking further ahead, taking out *1041 would confirm a larger bearish shakeout during most of Q4 targeting a retest of the July low at 869 is indeed underway

SPX 500 Hedge
http://i38.tinypic.com/qqr4lz.jpg...currently 'slight short tilt' with tight downside cover

Long Term: THE BEAR http://i34.tinypic.com/a08l6s.jpg...trying to inflate the debt is like a monkey trying to outrun the lion http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/08/trying-to-inflate-our-way-out-of-debt.html

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

Hoop
23-10-2009, 09:32 AM
Arco........Thanking you for your S&P 500 Ichimoku input...hope it continues.

I'm not sure whether I should be writing this post on this thread or the Ichimoku thread in the Forex section, but here goes...

Over the years I have occasionally observed some spooky results published by the media about Japanese day traders. Even some Japanese long term Investors predicting future outcomes have become uncannily true against contrary traditional methods. This is what got me looking into Ichimoku Kinko Hyo in the first place...(about the time of uncomfortable bearish feelings at the height of the August 2007 Bull market).... but I only obtained a basic understanding. Finding information of the finer working points is difficult, as is the lack of "available time" to study it more deeply.
However it amazes me how I always instinctively come back to my basic Ichimoku Kinko Hyo when I sense a change is in the air. What is the amazing part is I don't know why I do it as I'm not fully convinced it is superior over other systems.

Arco ...these working examples with explanations you have posted has helped me to understand more deeply the intricate workings of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo...thanks for that.

A question if you don't mind......Some Ichi traders combine other traditional TA tools into there Ichimoku models, such as Traditional Support/Resistance lines. Do you personally refer/combine traditional methods either consciously or otherwise when using Ichimoku Kinko Hyo?

arco
23-10-2009, 01:20 PM
Short TF gave a good signal for 12+

http://i33.tinypic.com/sloeb5.gif

Hoop
You can add whatever other techniques help you to find trades, but everything is covered with the system. Occasionally I might spot a H&S formation which I would consider along with the Ichi chart, etc. S&R can be defined using Chikou span (pivot) points, with Kumo giving another edge to S/R.

I'm always conscious of blocking Ananda's thread with off topic posts, so in respect of his flow it may be more suitable to direct your off topic questions to me on the Ichi thread over on FX

regards - arco

ananda77
23-10-2009, 07:00 PM
The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 22 October 2009-

http://i35.tinypic.com/2hwpdld.gif

Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 23 October 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)
http://i35.tinypic.com/9uvz2x.gif[center]

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 22 October 2009-

http://i38.tinypic.com/11jnoqv.gifInstitutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level
http://i37.tinypic.com/52j4gw.gifLong Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i33.tinypic.com/ayoe4k.jpgNYSE Momentum and Strength http://i34.tinypic.com/15hiyd5.gif(Momentum close-up)
http://i33.tinypic.com/k976o8.gifNYSE Down Volume

[center]US Economic Calendar -data point 23 October 2009-
Existing Home Sales actual 5.51M (forecast) 5.45M (prior) 5.1M

Stock Market -data point 23 October 2009-
...the SPX 500 has failed at or just below this week's *1101 High three times in the past five days but downticks have yet to breach key support levels; the fact, the market hasn't been able to extend higher on good earnings data coupled with obvious bearish divergences in momentum is a warning that a deeper bearish turn is imminent
...however, a sustained penetration of the Oct 13 Low *1067 is needed for a follow through a key test of the 50-day MA at *1041 initially;
...but unless *1067 support is broken chances for a brief advance to challenge the 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 Break at *1122 before peaking is still very much in play
...looking further out, a penetration of *1041 would confirm that a larger bearish shakeout that should retest the July Low *869 is indeed underway
...stay current short

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

arco
24-10-2009, 07:43 AM
Up to +16 overnight using signals from 15m/30m TF.

http://i33.tinypic.com/xf2g4l.gif

ananda77
24-10-2009, 08:33 AM
arco: please explain a bit more

...todays' action confirmed again a highly volatile market; reason:
-strength and liquidity still in positive territory

SPX 500 Hedge -data point 23 October 2009 (US Eastern Time)-


http://i38.tinypic.com/24c6yl3.gif...although Invetrics went 'long', just could not follow the beat and stayed 'slight short tilt' (but not until loosing 4 ticks)
...guess the market will stay highly volatile until either the upside is resolved as a failed test of bear market resistance line *1122 or breaks down below *1067; in any case better ride a more neutral (slight short tilt) in the hedge

Kind Regards

peat
25-10-2009, 12:06 AM
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-october-15-2009/dow-jones-rebounds-to-1999

arco
25-10-2009, 03:33 PM
arco: please explain a bit more

Kind Regards

30m chart - Chikou Span breaks plot, tests plot ((S=R) and breaks through again on Dark Cloud Cover below 1095 potential resistance area with KS/TS forming crossed straight-line. Further confirmation with 2 elements crossed over and Evening Star pattern on 15m.

hope that helps

arco

arco
26-10-2009, 08:25 AM
Tonights apparent potential (until we can judge what the mood looks like at the open)

http://i38.tinypic.com/20iym13.gif

arco
26-10-2009, 08:17 PM
Update

http://i37.tinypic.com/2lsd1cm.gif


Earlier post
http://i38.tinypic.com/20iym13.gif

arco
26-10-2009, 09:03 PM
If we see a confirmed reversal signal around the bearish Kumo this could be the result.

http://i38.tinypic.com/ebbic2.gif

ananda77
27-10-2009, 07:00 AM
Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 26 October 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i35.tinypic.com/9ixopt.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 23 October 2009-

http://i33.tinypic.com/aw937q.jpghttp://i36.tinypic.com/2ez6z2h.jpg...the upper bear market resistance line has to be taken out for a Bull Market condition to hold; in the meantime, current bearish market momentum taking bites at the current bull market conditions

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 23 October 2009-
http://i36.tinypic.com/33a8bav.jpgInstitutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level
http://i36.tinypic.com/mltn36.jpgLong Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i36.tinypic.com/2rnu4x2.jpghttp://i35.tinypic.com/ne85fd.jpgNYSE Momentum and Strength (close-up)
http://i34.tinypic.com/2hp6nf7.jpgNYSE Down Volume

US Economic Calendar -data point 26 October 2009-
-empty-

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 26 October 2009-
...SPX 500 trading started the day on a bullish note briefly before falling back into negative territory marking the 4th time in a week that the 1001/*1092 level could not be sustainably penetraded; the fact that the market hasn't been able to extend higher on good earnings data together with dwindling momentum warns of an imminent deeper bearish reversal
...waiting for today's Close, a sustained penetration of the Oct 13 Low *1067 would invite a key test of the 50-day moving avg at *1041 initially
...on the other hand, until *1067 support is broken a brief advance to challenge the 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 Break at *1122 is still a possibility
...looking further out, taking out *1041 on a Close basis would confirm that a larger bearish shakeout that should retest the July Low *869 is indeed underway

SPX 500 Hedge -data point 26 October 2009-

http://i35.tinypic.com/33wbe6c.jpgbullish >*1104 Close; bearish <*1070 Close; before Market Open -'slight short tilt' with 'neutral bias' >*1092 intraday

http://i33.tinypic.com/25t860y.jpg... a sustained penetration of the Oct 13 Low *1067 would invite a key test of the 50-day moving avg at *1041 initially -waiting for the Close- (on a cautious note: the Trin has steadily increased over the trading session and stands now at 2.11 -considered very bearish and could be taken by traders as contra-indicative; therefore, it is prudent to wait for the Close to add to 'short' positions

Market Comentary -data point 26 October 2009-
David Rosenberg: David Rosenberg: The financials sagged 1.6% on Friday and have done squat now for 5½ weeks. Just as the economists are taking their housing numbers higher, in classic “sell the fact” mode, the S&P Homebuilding index just closed down 18% from the mid-September high. That almost classifies, dare we say, as a … bear market!
Oh yes — this is surely a sign that the credit crunch is behind us. Regulators closed seven more regional banks last Friday, bringing the tally for the year to 106. There have been more bank failures this year than in the past 15 years combined, and the only reason why the big boys never followed suit was because the government guaranteed all their debt and then allowed them to hide their losses by switching to mark-to-model accounting from mark-to-market. Believe us when we tell you that even the most renowned experts could not tell you what is really sitting on the balance sheets of these large U.S. banks — but there is limited downside risk because Uncle Sam has deemed them all to be ‘too big to fail’. Those who were investors in American United Bank, well, we are sorry to have to tell you that you were involved in an institution that was small enough to close down

Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

arco
27-10-2009, 08:00 AM
Morning All

Overnight Result (projected chart from yesterday evening also shown below).

Reversal pattern in the grey zone as expected and result as per original chart.

Max circa +27

Current chart
http://i38.tinypic.com/nxosyf.gif


Chart below posted 11 hrs ago
Quote "If we see a confirmed reversal signal around the bearish Kumo this could be the result."

http://i38.tinypic.com/ebbic2.gif

winner69
27-10-2009, 10:18 AM
The fear factor in VIX spikes 11% sounds dreadful and the end of the world ... but still below 25 .... and remember that the VIX at implies that punters are expecting the S&P500 to mover UP or Down 7% in the next 30 days

From the Business Spectator

SCOREBOARD: Heightened fears

With the VIX up 11 per cent overnight it seems punters have become more skittish. There was little data out overnight to exacerbate that – but then maybe that was the problem. It seems we need constant reassurance the economy is actually recovering and without that, our primal fears takeover.

Next thing you know the S&P500 is down 1.2 per cent (1066). Falls were broad-based although financials in particular were weak after an analyst (Bove) downgraded a number of banks in the sector citing expected loan losses. He also suggested that the government wants BofA to raise $US45 billion in new capital.

But otherwise the Dow was off 104 pts to 9867, the Nasdaq fell 0.6 per cent (2141) while the SPI dropped 0.8 per cent (4801). Don’t believe the hype though, I think there is something like 60 per cent of the S&P to report still and current trends are fantastic i.e. 80 per cent or so reporting better-than-expected earnings.

For last night, the flow-on from rising risk aversion was a stronger Greenback and weaker commodities. The Australian dollar fell just under 1 US cent to 0.9151, EUR was off over a big figure to 1.4867, while the yen was at 92.23 from 91.8. Sterling was a touch stronger but that’s not surprising after falling three big ones on Friday.

This had the impact of seeing some fairly broad-based falls in the commodity space. Oil on Nymex was off 2.3 per cent ($US78.6), natural gas fell over 5 per cent while gold dropped $US15 to $US1039. Base metals were generally lower (copper down 0.6 per cent, nickel down 1.6 per cent) but zinc was up 2.4 per cent.

You’d think, after all that, US treasuries would have rallied – but no. The spectre of $US123 billion of issuance this week seems too heavy. In fact that was kicked off last night with $US7 billion of re-opened 5-year TIPS. Attracting, as you’d expect, good bidding and indirect interest. At the close though, the 2-year yield was up 1bps to 1.03 per cent, the 5-year was 5bps higher at 2.5 per cent while the 10-year was up 7bps to 3.56 per cent – all on average volumes through Brokertec. Aussie futures followed suit, the 3s down 2 ticks to 94.55, while the 10s fell 5 ticks to 94.21.

Very little in Australia or NZ today. Consumer confidence at 1pm for the kiwis about sums it up. Tonight, the Conference Board publishes the October consumer confidence report. This is accompanied by the Richmond Fed manufacturing activity report (October) and the S&P Case Shiller house price index (August).

Hoop
27-10-2009, 11:51 AM
Don't you just love the media hype.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/vix26102009.png

winner69
27-10-2009, 11:59 AM
Like one day last week the DOW went down a bit and it 'tumbled' but last night it 'slid' down 1% plus .... think I'd rather slide than tumble

arco
27-10-2009, 02:54 PM
Some comparable charts with SP500 (and info) here that may be of interest


http://www.investorsalley.com/mc09/10-26/article4.html

peat
27-10-2009, 06:55 PM
Resistance at the blue bar area which pretty much the same as Arco's grey box, but a rise above it is bullish.

ananda77
28-10-2009, 06:56 AM
Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 27 October 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i36.tinypic.com/e9wvnm.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 24 October 2009-

http://i33.tinypic.com/aw937q.jpghttp://i38.tinypic.com/33padrl.jpg

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 26 October 2009-
http://i33.tinypic.com/2ivk2kz.jpgInstitutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level
http://i38.tinypic.com/5bsjkj.jpgLong Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i33.tinypic.com/2n1w8jb.jpgNYSE Momentum and Strength
http://i35.tinypic.com/ouqpsw.jpgNYSE Down Volume
http://i33.tinypic.com/117v5l3.jpgVIX Daily

US Economic Calendar -data point 27 October 2009-

>US Consumer Confidence: actual 47.7 (forecast 52.6) (consensus 53.5) (prior 53.1)
>CaseShiller Home Price Index: actual -11.32% (forecast -13.0%) (consensus -11.9%) (prior -13.3% )

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 27 October 2009-

...the SPX 500 sank to an early Low *1061 followed by a bounce which appeared laboured and unconvincing;
...based on short term oversold conditions as well as the fact that institutional selling remains in an uptrend and increased over the last few trading session, further upticks should be limited and should not impact on the overall bearish market composure;
...towards the end of the week or early next week, the next down leg should test and breach the 50-day MA currently *1045 which would make the Jun High *956 the next apparent target with scope to retest the Jul Low *869 before year-end.

SPX 500 Hedge -data point 27 October 2009-


http://i33.tinypic.com/30bihap.jpg...Cash before Open with downside cover; neutral above *1079 to *1092; bullish above *1097 closing basis
http://i35.tinypic.com/34il8wz.jpg...short

Market Commentary -data point 27 October 2009-

Mike Whitney: Dollar Collapse Update: "Obama Demands Pay in Euros!"
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=15808 ...Bernanke's problem, is that all the tools at his disposal are blunt instruments. It's like performing kidney surgery with a meat cleaver. Dropping interest rates and printing money can stave off deflation, but it also pushes stocks higher than anyone really wants. That leaves traders on the sidelines waiting for a market correction before they jump back in. The same is true of the dollar. Sure, Bernanke wants a cheap greenback to spark exports and reduce household debt, but when the dollar plunges to $1.60 per euro, then the sh** hits the fan and the public outcry forces him to change directions. If the dollar falls any further, the Fed will have to shut down the printing presses altogether and watch while the boat capsizes. The problem is more political than economic.

US policymakers should drop this nonsense about the dollar and deal with the underlying problem itself; lack of demand. That means the focus should be on wage growth and full employment. If that means printing up a couple more trillion; then get to it! Getting people back to work and paying them decently should be job one

Long Term: THE BEAR
>Elliot Wave International: Initial Stages of Wave 3 (unconfirmed)
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

Hoop
28-10-2009, 08:46 AM
What's Next - Minor Correction or Major Meltdown? (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Whats-Next-Minor-Correction-etfguide-1855824735.html;_ylt=AlZI0CT.aJMyy8k4MJ1wbUq7YWsA; _ylu=X3oDMTE1bmVpamg2BHBvcwM2BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzB HNsawN3aGF0c25leHQtLW0-?x=0&.v=1&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=)

Reasons to be very, very wary.

Hoops answer:.......minor correction (10%ish) and may last a few months

This period of time usually clobbers the late investor comers harshly who up to now have resisted entering the market thinking the worst is still to happen and have recently found the courage to enter because they can't stand it any longer seeing the party carrying on without them.

Simon Maierhofer's article is emotional using the Titanic example and he has fallen into the same Shiller annualised P/ERatio chart trap as many other uninformed article writers trying to dramatise that all is rotten in the investment world.

NOTE:-Shiller Annualised PE Ratio is at the moment running at 19.3 (as at 30 Sept 2009) NOT 143

Sure... you can use the simple PE Ratio and chart it accordingly, but it turns out with peaks and troughs everywhere and looks like a seismograph recording an earthquake...hence the chart is useless..that is why Shiller devised a formula method.

To read about whats happening with PE ratios with the S&P500 index read the Crestmont Research paper (updated 30th Sept 2009) here and throw that other bullsh1t article in the bin where it belongs (http://www.crestmontresearch.com/pdfs/Stock%20PE%20Report.pdf)

Sorry Bel if this post came across rather strong..not aimed at you ..aimed at the low quality media drivel which suck people into believing.

Hoop
28-10-2009, 09:46 AM
Another good freebee TA article courtesy of MarketWatch,

Technical Indicator Article (http://www.marketwatch.com/story//cracks-showing-in-the-near-term-trend-2009-10-27)

arco
28-10-2009, 06:14 PM
Time for an update

Some time ago when I mentioned a potential H&S forming
http://i37.tinypic.com/vh7y87.gif

NOW....................we're getting there

http://i36.tinypic.com/n5oor5.gif

beacon
28-10-2009, 06:17 PM
I'm picking a 5-7% "correction" and very soon.

Methinks we are already in this impending correction you see. India is down 8% already, SPX approx 4%, EuroStoxx 50 approx 5%, Aussie nearing 4% etc from recent highs. japan, china and russia recently had their corrections, and are rebounding (eg Japan has recovered to half of its near 15% fall from recent grace). 860 may be exceptional value, and I would love to buy some US stocks at that point, but I suspect Ben is in no mood to let SPX get anywhere near there ...

Liked your links Hoop. Like you I was laughing at the scare mongerer talking about SPX PE being 143. And to think these people publish their uninformed crap with such abandon...

ananda77
28-10-2009, 06:39 PM
860 may be exceptional value, and I would love to buy some US stocks at that point, but I suspect Ben is in no mood to let SPX get anywhere near there ...

...basically agree that Institutions would LOVE to see *860/*870, the SPX 500 'fair value level' and think, institutional investors will drive the market there; it will be a well supported level from where the market will most likely start another leg to a new recovery High;

Kind Regards

delinky
28-10-2009, 09:53 PM
You will very rarely see me post simply because I am a novice and learning. (the hard way I might add). I look forward to your posts daily and am indeed learning.

I notice that around the world almost all indicies have sold off which indicates a correction (or "other") maybe underway. However, although the US hasn't opened yet, I wonder why their indicies haven't really begun to sell off yet? Surely, it won't wait until market to open. This could be a ridiculous question but I do think it seem strange since most other markets have broken yesterday's lows already.

ananda77
29-10-2009, 05:07 AM
Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 28 October 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)


http://i34.tinypic.com/2m6so05.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 27 October 2009-

http://i33.tinypic.com/aw937q.jpghttp://i37.tinypic.com/ejsqp3.jpg

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 27 October 2009-

Institutional Core Holdingshttp://i35.tinypic.com/261zvx1.jpg...in a technical uptrend still
http://i35.tinypic.com/20jn0nk.jpgInstitutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level
http://i38.tinypic.com/23lmejp.jpgLong Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i38.tinypic.com/2hdmbeb.jpgNYSE Momentum and Strength
http://i36.tinypic.com/2ik4ghv.jpgNYSE Down Volume

US Economic Calendar -data point 28 October 2009-
>US Sept. Durable Orders: actual 1% (forecast 0.5%) (consensus 1.0%) (prior -2.4%)
>ex Transport: actual 0.9% (forecast 01%) (consensus 0.7%) (prior 0.0%)
>US Sept. New Home Sales: actual 407K (forecast 450K) (consensus) (prior 429K)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 28 October 2009-

...SPX 500 extending solidly lower this morning but downticks still appear a bit hesitant above the 50-day MA at *1045
...although the overall tone remains bearish in the wake of four failed tests of *1092/*1101 in the past week, there is potential for a retest of *1091/*1101 based on an oversold rally if *1046 support holds near term -Watch Out For Tomorrows Q3 GDP Numbers (+2,5% estimated)-
..on the other hand, violation of the 50-day MA level should sponsor a near term test of the Oct 2 Low at *1020 before an oversold bounce; looking further ahead, penetration of *1020 should shift sights toward the Jun High *956 initially with potential to retest the Jul Low *869 before year-end

SPX 500 Hedge -data point 28 October 2009-


http://i35.tinypic.com/2ebs47r.jpg......Cash before Open with 'tight' downside cover; neutral above *1073 to *1091; bullish above *1097 closing basis

http://i38.tinypic.com/24b1a4z.jpg...taking profit *1047 for today

Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

Stranger_Danger
29-10-2009, 06:45 AM
It certainly looks like the market wants to fall, but, I can remember feeling like this about 7 times since March! The old wall of worry I guess.

For the record, I've recently been taking some chips off the table (complex investment strategy that led to this decision - "because I can" ) but am loathe to fall in love with any one thesis for what may happen next.

I *am* concerned to hear a few people I know suddenly talking about making "easy money" in the sharemarket, including first time investors and people who have been out of the market for ages and just re-entered.

However, I still see many shares I consider reasonably priced, BUT, it isn't lost on me that my major error during the 2007-2008 period was holding onto a few shares on the basis of "reasonable price" then watching them get even more so!

The US GDP number tomorrow - and the market response to it - will be most instructive.

arco
29-10-2009, 09:38 AM
.
This is easier than forex trading :D.....+21 (See also post #70)

Current Chart
http://i36.tinypic.com/2agnpn7.gif


Chart Posted Last Night
http://i36.tinypic.com/n5oor5.gif

ananda77
29-10-2009, 06:29 PM
Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 29 October 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i36.tinypic.com/2hwl2f4.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 28 October 2009-


http://i33.tinypic.com/aw937q.jpghttp://i38.tinypic.com/16nkhd.jpg...SPY is testing a Major support today and is short term oversold

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 28 October 2009-

http://i33.tinypic.com/debero.jpgInstitutional Core Holdings...still in a technical up trend
http://i38.tinypic.com/xc4ynn.jpgInstitutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level
http://i38.tinypic.com/ndq51j.jpgLong Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i33.tinypic.com/14w6d79.jpgNYSE Momentum and Strength
http://i35.tinypic.com/4ue9i1.jpgNYSE Down Volume

US Economic Calendar -data point 29 October 2009-
>US Q3 Chain Deflator-Adv: actual ----- (forecast 1.3%) (consensus 1.4%) (prior 0.0%)
>US Q3 GDP-Adv: actual ----- (forecast 2.5%) (consensus 3.2%) (prior -0.7%)
>US Oct 24 Initial Claims: actual ---- (forecast 520K) (consensus 525K ) (prior 531K)
>US Oct 17 Continuing Claims: actual ---- (forecast 5890K) (consensus 5905K ) (prior 5923K)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 29 October 2009-

…the SPX 500 is recovering from the Oct 28 Low *1042 this morning in what appears to turn into a large inside day; up-side appears corrective as initial up-tick bullish buying power is loosing its strength and has turned negative for the last two hours;
...although the first re-test of the 50-day MA has been successful, the overall tone remains bearish in the wake of four failed tests of *1092/*1101 in the past week but current short term momentum could carry the current oversold bounce into *1072/*1091 congestion before exhaustion sets in;
...failure in that range should set the table for a sharp sell-off that should easily take out the Oct 2nd Low *1020 to accelerate losses toward the Jun High *956 initially with potential to retest the Jul Low *869 before year-end

SPX 500 Hedge -data point 29 October 2009-

http://i34.tinypic.com/21ufkp.jpg...Cash before Open with downside cover; *1020 intraday downside potential; neutral above *1061 to *1085; bullish above *1101 closing basis

http://i38.tinypic.com/51alg7.jpg...at this stage >short tilt with more downside cover

Market Commentary -data point 29 October 2009-

David Rosenberg: This is a time to be raising cash if you haven’t done so already — valuation, technicals, fund flows and fundamentals at this juncture are all near-term obstacles
http://i33.tinypic.com/2guzhck.jpg...the S&P 500 on a normalized 10-year basis is 20x and the long-turn norm is 16x. Just to go back to the norm, let alone compress to a level commensurate with an unusually high level of economic and financial uncertainty, would suggest that we would see the S&P correct down towards 875.

Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

winner69
30-10-2009, 07:01 AM
The fear factor in VIX spikes 11% sounds dreadful and the end of the world ... .

That was last week .. panic over ...... VIX tumbles 11% overnight

Hoop
30-10-2009, 08:19 AM
Ananda nice Shiller PE Ratio chart great to see a correct chart better than those with that 140+ spike eh
Can pick out the secular Bull/bear cycles easily because this is how secular cycles are determined..by annualised PE Ratios such as Shillers annualised PE (above chart) NOT by the rise and fall of the market index ...the downtrend are secular bear cycles and uptrend are secular bull cycles.
OK..Rosenburg is a guru..and this latest spike is against the Secular Bear trend and does spell a long term warning...that it must correct itself because the cycle is still a secular bear....but the way it is reported..it sounds like Rosenburg says the market is going to correct very shortly (tommorrow??) ...Not necessarly so.... secular cycles are long term phemomions and thislastest spike up will correct but may take as long as a year or two to do so ..y then the E part of the equation may be better sothe PE correction may not affect the P as much than if if it happened right now.

A couple of things to remember

Annualised PE Ratios have long term figures built in so to eliminate short term fluctuations (noise)
Notice the exceptionally high PE at year 2000 and the steepness of the drop. this will cause bungy effect will will take years to settle down...In this case the upwards recoils will continue to showing bigger than normal cyclic bull markets (as happened in 2003-2007) and this current bull in theory should better than average within the overall secular bear...but the bad news is the downside is that in theory this large fluctuation will cause a bigger cyclic bear (which what happened in 2008-09) and in theory the next cyclic bear may also be a larger than normal.

There is not evidence to suggest his cyclic bull is dead...rather the contrary.

ananda77
30-10-2009, 10:15 AM
Hoop:

Jeremy Grantham (GMO) expects the S&P 500 to drop by 15% to 25%
David Rosenberg (Gluskin Sheff) sees markets falling by 20%
Doug Kass is looking at -5% to -12%

...no one at this stage, even Elliot Wave International awaits confirmation, is saying the current bull phase is over and we will see the continuation of the bear cycle; but personally, right now, I'd rather be a bull at SPX 500 *869/*875 than at over *1100 where the market is clearly overvalued at the tune of 20% -it just makes a lot more sense to me-
...Institutional Investors drive markets and looking at the buy/sell spread of institutional investing, they usually DO NOT SELL TODAY AND BUY TOMORROW, just because a number looks nice; the market is in correction mode at present and ONLY if the values plotted in the following table are taken out, the market is off its uptrend starting in March 09
http://i34.tinypic.com/1zwoz20.jpg...until then do not be a -Silly Bull, BE A Smart Bull- for a change (generically speaking)

Kind Regards

Hoop
30-10-2009, 12:15 PM
Ananda
I'm on the record (ST posts) as saying the TA target market correction is due at DOW10350 and the S&P500 at 1140 ..it can happen at anytime of course.. may be happening now for all that I know. I have mentioned about 10% correction for the DOW....Over history the S&P500 bull market corrections average about 10%
Bull corrections falling by 20% are very very rare...so the chances of this happening is such that I certainly won't putting my money on it as a good bet of it happening.. don't care how many Gurus are saying so.

To be a successful investor I bet on something happening with a 70+% chance of it happening. I'll leave the rare events and the long shots to the Heroes. If a rare event does happen I will know in advance as there are many pre-warning indicators I use, which gives time to exit. (DISC:- As of today I am still 87% in this market)

On the flip side this correction may not even be happening yet...there is a possibility this is just another 5% breather that these markets have been experiencing every month like clockwork (notice the upward zigzag pattern on the chart) and it may zigzag up to the 1140 correction due area...maybe later as the NZX ASX indexes overshot their market correction points recently.

Ananda quote..."but personally, right now, I'd rather be a bull at SPX 500 *869/*875 than at over *1100 where the market is clearly overvalued at the tune of 20% -it just makes a lot more sense to me-"
Strongly Disagree..makes no sense
Markets can stay overvalued for years with PE flucuations (Look at your Shiller PE chart) You are telling me not to be in the market in 1995 because it is overvalued because the Annualised PE is 25 and the average is 16 just to watch it triple by 1999. ...yeah right.
OK...just for the record it was a secular bull then (1995) and now (2009) its a secular bear so this won't happen this time...but you get my point.

hey...look at the many times an undervalued market (PE 12) loses another 50% eg Capitulation at the end of a cyclic bear during the end phase of a secular bear

Ananda if the S&P 500 is 869 at this moment and you're a bull you may lose...because we would be in another cyclic bear period and I will be mostly out of the market. For the record it is very rare for a cyclic Bull to die at 9 month old. Corrections are healthy to a cyclic bull as it extends their life span.

Why everyone recites all these rare events as something that definitely going to happen now is beyond all reasonable thinking...Yes it may happen.. so does getting hit by lightning.
Its always possible these are Noahs Ark type storm clouds but any one who say with certainty that it is happening at this moment of time are purely guessing.

Yes I am aware the very steep primary uptrend is broken...and so it must, as it was too steep to continue for long.

For anyone who is learning about the Equity Market...The primary knowledge you must learn to be able to understand the overall market behaviour is Shiller annualised PE Ratios ...everything else in life is secondary.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP50029102009A.png

ananda77
30-10-2009, 02:51 PM
Hoop:

...somehow I can not get rid of the thought that there is a contradiction in your argument; I am glad you mention this current market to be a cyclical bull within a secular bear, so there is agreement, but

...this cyclical bull has run now 63% (SPX 500) since the March Low, you are still 87% invested so you are saying that there is at least a 70% chance that this cyclical bull will run another ???% based on what Fundamental Drivers??

...let's just see what the 1981 Fundamentals looked like that eventually drove the Great Bull in 1982 and what Key Fundamentals the market has to deal with now:

http://i34.tinypic.com/33m7qfn.gif...room for improvements versus room for deterioration -no kidding-

Kind Regards

Hoop
30-10-2009, 08:57 PM
Ananda quote:..."Hoop:

...somehow I can not get rid of the thought that there is a contradiction in your argument; I am glad you mention this current market to be a cyclical bull within a secular bear, so there is agreement, but

...this cyclical bull has run now 63% (SPX 500) since the March Low, you are still 87% invested so you are saying that there is at least a 70% chance that this cyclical bull will run another ???% based on what Fundamental Drivers??

...let's just see what the 1981 Fundamentals looked like that eventually drove the Great Bull in 1982 and what Key Fundamentals the market has to deal with now:


There's no Contradiction in my post Ananda.

To save rewriting hundreds of posts again here as one post and boring everyone to death with masses of pages I think my response is best posted on the "Investing strategies and the secular bear markets" thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5171&page=14)..so please read it and look through the previous posts by everyone on the thread and you will then see that there's no contradictions.

..Its an interesting thread and my posts alone are products of hundreds and hundreds of hours of research.

Oh..by the way.... FACT:- there is only one primary fundamental driver to a stock market and that is the rises and falls of the Annualised PE Ratio...thats it!!! nothing else ...there are secondary drivers that come close (see Minskey on my other thread post)
Sorry to say that your table of key fundamentals that drives a share market is pure fiction.

ananda77
31-10-2009, 04:23 AM
Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 30 October 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)


http://i33.tinypic.com/2remd86.gif

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 28 October 2009-


http://i33.tinypic.com/aw937q.jpg

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 29 October 2009-

Institutional Core Holdings
Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level
Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
NYSE Momentum and Strength
NYSE Down Volume

US Economic Calendar -data point 30 October 2009-

Personal Income Sep: actual 0.0% (forecast -0.2%) (consensus 0.0%) (prior 0.2%)
Personal Spending Sep: actual -0.5% (forecast -0.7%) (consensus -0.5%) (prior 1.3%)
PCE Prices Sep: actual -0.5 (forecast -0.5%) (consensus -0.5%) (prior -0.5%)
Core PCE Prices Sep: actual 0.1% (forecast 0.1%) (consensus 0.2%) (prior 0.1%)
Chicago PMI Oct: actual 54.2 (forecast 51.0) (consensus 49.0) (prior 46.1)
Mich Sentiment-Rev Oct: actual 70.6 (forecast 70.3) (consensus 70.0) (prior 69.4)
Employment Cost Index Q3: actual -0.4% (forecast 0.2%) (consensus 0.4%) (prior 0.4%)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 30 October 2009-

...the SPX 500 broke down from the short term wedge between *1042/*1066 today and is heading lower to test the October 2nd Low *1020; decliners outpaced advancers by 5(+) : 1 and uptick buying power just about was non-existent making a positive showing once during the past trading session
...there is good potential for another oversold bounce of the October 2nd Low towards *1066/*1073 but the upside will most likely be met with an aggressive sell-off

...watch out for the PayRolls, as this data could be the trigger for the selling event which could accelarate losses toward the Jun High *956 initially, with potential to retest the Jul Low *869 before year-end

Market Commentary -data point 30 October 2009-

Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
31-10-2009, 12:52 PM
Sorry to say that your table of key fundamentals that drives a share market is pure fiction.

Hoop:

...do Really appreciate the issues you write and know a lot about, but Mr.Hoop, to me you sound like an academic who is stuck head over heels in a theoretical loop;
what you describe as primary drivers of a bull market is no more or less a consequence of market pundits, be they individual or institutional, tossing around their CASH;
...and that (CASH AND THE WILLINGNESS OF PEOPLE TO PART WITH IT) is what people should look at first as the most important determinant of a market situation

...as for the contradiction thing, I was referring to the fact that you are 87% invested at present, so logically you ARE saying, you are 70% sure this current cyclical bull will continue to run, despite severe potential restrictions facing the most universal driver for ANYTHING to go ahead and that is CASH (like: potentially higher interest rates, higher taxes; dwindling demand, over-indebted households etc,etc,)

...after today's trading session, the wave 3 down has further found fertile soil to grow and unlike the intermediate wave 3 down in 2008, this wave 3 down will be of primary degree within the -as you agreeably call it- a very healthy and alive secular bear market


Midnight Candles http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2009/Midnight+Candles+Gross+November.htm

William H Gross (Pimco -managing director-): What you see in the bond market is often what you get. Broadening the concept to the U.S. bond market as a whole (mortgages + investment grade corporates), the total bond market yields only 3.5%. To get more than that, high yield, distressed mortgages, and stocks beckon the investor increasingly beguiled by hopes of a V-shaped recovery and “old normal” market standards. Not likely, and the risks outweigh the rewards at this point. Investors must recognize that if assets appreciate with nominal GDP, a 4–5% return is about all they can expect even with abnormally low policy rates. Rage, rage, against this conclusion if you wish, but the six-month rally in risk assets – while still continuously supported by Fed and Treasury policymakers – is likely at its pinnacle. Out, out, brief candle.

Kind Regards

arco
31-10-2009, 01:52 PM
Last 2 nights trading signals

http://i36.tinypic.com/2w5on7o.gif

Stranger_Danger
01-11-2009, 10:21 AM
Actually, I think Ananda and Hoop are both right.

However, Hoop's argument is the voting machine.

The chart Ananda presented with 1982 versus now - as Hoop suggests - has almost nothing to do with what sharemarkets did yesterday or may do tomorrow.

The question - the weighing machine argument - is whether those figures eventually mean something?

I say yes (we simply don't have the conditions needed for a new boom, and Government debt levels virtually require a new boom : the maths simply do not work), but knowing that gives no insight as to exactly what may happen and when.

To be honest, the "weighing machine" argument would have kept me out of the markets since March, so I'm thankful for going along with the voting machine for a while.

That said, chips are being steadily removed from the table now - I'm gonna sit out the next few votes, methinks.

ananda77
02-11-2009, 12:47 PM
...The chart Ananda presented with 1982 versus now - as Hoop suggests - has almost nothing to do with what sharemarkets did yesterday or may do tomorrow

...of course not; the table is a warning that the rally since March is built on shoddy, deteriorating fundamentals which makes 'BUY and Hold' strategies risky; at this stage of course I do not know whether or not the rally will continue to a new 2009 recovery High or not, nor -DO I GIVE A HOOT-

...but when it comes to investment/trading strategies, choose which current situation is more preferable (safe)

-being fully invested
-out of the market

The Early Warning: Institutional Investors went into distribution around the 20th October warning of an impending short term market top with implications for a larger correction -chart data point 29 October 2009-http://i33.tinypic.com/ixfep5.jpg; the market action following the warning can be traced on the second chart
http://i37.tinypic.com/eaqoic.jpg -chart data point 02 November 2009; note the time when the yellow uptrend line, which followed the short term uptrend from the green arrow market went horizontal >where several institutions recommended to seriously take chips off the table;
...please note: although institutions warned early, as long as liquidity inflows (CASH, CASH, CASH,) stay in positive territory, liquidity is the overriding indicator!!!! and usually makes for quite volatile markets;
...of course, if it turns out that SPX 500 *1101 is taken out, there is plenty of time to consider the upside potential again, but whatever happens; in the meantime, quite happy to stay in a win-win situation

Kind Regards

beacon
02-11-2009, 12:57 PM
we simply don't have the conditions needed for a new boom, and Government debt levels virtually require a new boom : the maths simply do not work.

Generally Govts win. They can be the largest market mover if they wish, and at the moment they have virtually uncontested control of the printing presses, and we know what they wish. They have a beggar's choice in the matter...

You quote Bill Gross Ananada. In his earlier contemplations this year, even he has stressed the need for the Govts to reflate assets. This is what I think will currently be played out regardless of the perception that PE is slightly high. Coming out of a recession, PEs are generally higher than historical norms. This candle is lit in a hurricane lamp. I think it will need a stronger tempest to test its longevity than the one I currently see brewing. However, I watch with keen interest....

ananda77
02-11-2009, 05:19 PM
Generally Govts win. They can be the largest market mover if they wish, and at the moment they have virtually uncontested control of the printing presses, and we know what they wish. They have a beggar's choice in the matter...

...The US Government has NO CONTROL over the printing press, the FED does and that may play out as a major problem in the near future:

-economic sense versus political feasibility

Kind Regards

ananda77
03-11-2009, 06:48 AM
Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 02 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i34.tinypic.com/9hi2cn.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 02 October 2009-


http://i37.tinypic.com/i3rign.jpg

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 02 November 2009-


Institutional Core Holdings
Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels
Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
NYSE Momentum and Strength

US Economic Calendar -data point 03 November 2009-

>US: actual----- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>US: actual----- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>US: actual----- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 03 November 2009-

SPX 500 Hedge -data point 03 November 2009-




Market Commentary -data point 03 November 2009-

Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

JBmurc
03-11-2009, 08:33 AM
...The US Government has NO CONTROL over the printing press, the FED does and that may play out as a major problem in the near future:

-economic sense versus political feasibility

Kind Regards

I watched a U-tube clip last night in where a ex-high ranking IMF an a current senator were saying how the US has just now onto their final dept payments from the Vietnam war era Where the Government had run up a dept of 130bill

Now put that into context of the current US build up of dept now some est. 1.3 trill+(some say the true amount is many multiples of this) an growing with no end in sight as -Obama easy money to crook bankers continue to make the same mistakes -but I guess as Obama was backed by the big bankers Wall street in the election just checkout his cabinet nothing but ex Wall street ......never in US history has a government cabinet been so one-sided

Hoop
03-11-2009, 09:45 AM
Ananda...Just in case you wondering...

When I read any article anywhere by anyone I firstly take in:
..what they are writing about and why? at this point of time.
..I check out who they are
..check their credentials and their past history success rate if they predict
..Look to see what their Peers think about them.


If a person has an impressive record I would act accordingly, irrespective of that persons weird habits, extreme/bizarre partying lifestyle and rooms in his house that has artificial vulvas plastered all over the walls.

I looked up Prof Nouriel Roubini and found a biography of him (http://www.portfolio.com/business-news/portfolio/2009/03/18/Profile-of-NYU-Economist-Roubini/) ... absolutely an exciting read...it would make a great storyline for a movie...Does this Guy burn a candle from both ends or what :eek:..wow.

When making up your own mind about his endless mass of dire predictions, remember this article is written by Helaine Olen (http://www.linkedin.com/pub/helaine-olen/7/33b/651) a self employed media reporter who also writes about Women's issues..wonder what she thought about Nouriel Roubini walls when she found out:rolleyes:.

beacon
03-11-2009, 09:56 AM
But JBMurc, he needs them. He has a financial crisis on his hands. You don't ask financial advice from your tailor, do you?

Preparing to increase investment in US. Hope SPX500 gets to 1020. Brilliant readings Ananda. Well done ...

dumbass
03-11-2009, 09:58 AM
Ananda...Just in case you wondering...



If a person has an impressive record I would act accordingly, irrespective of that persons weird habits, extreme/bizarre partying lifestyle and a room in his house that has artificial vulvas all over the walls.



I think your betraying Strats confidence there , i dont think he wanted that info made public.

Hoop
03-11-2009, 11:15 AM
Phew, I thought hoop was talking about me!

BTW ... when one looks at the VIX should one be looking at the linear or the log?

Ahhh haaaah :D:D

JBmurc
03-11-2009, 11:18 AM
But JBMurc, he needs them. He has a financial crisis on his hands. You don't ask financial advice from your tailor, do you?

Preparing to increase investment in US. Hope SPX500 gets to 1020. Brilliant readings Ananda. Well done ...

I personal wouldn't take advice from the guys that help create the credit problem recession in the first place have you been living in a cave ,Wall street bankers get bonuses of 10's of millions ??.....for what? the US unemployment rate is 9.9% (I've heard once someone's unemployed over 12m there no longer included)

have fun investing in US

beacon
03-11-2009, 04:02 PM
I personal wouldn't take advice from the guys that help create the credit problem recession in the first place

Fair point, but what is the alternative? It is the least bad option. Also one hopes that the experience has added to their learning curve. I'll give them a new leaf.


Wall street bankers get bonuses of 10's of millions ??.....for what? the US unemployment rate is 9.9%

They got that for a reason. Your frustration with the unfairness of the system and the outcomes is understandable but regardless of whether anybody thinks they deserved that or not, or whether they should be punished for their lethargy, bad anticipation, risk management, whatever... the remuneration packages are pre-decided. As Buffet says, only when the tide goes out does one know who's been swimming naked. Which investor hasn't lost money last year?


have fun investing in US

US is the pivot. That is where money will be made (or lost). Wish you well in your efforts, whevever you choose to invest. God knows, investors are a rare species at the moment...

ananda77
03-11-2009, 05:14 PM
Ananda...Just in case you wondering...

...no I do not; anyway, here is another piece of basically the same story, a bit more chewy (got more if needed)

BIS Working Papers No 291 http://www.bis.org/publ/work291.pdf?noframes=1

The US dollar shortage in global banking and the international policy response
by Patrick McGuire and Götz von Peter

Monetary and Economic Department
October 2009

Kind Regards

JBmurc
03-11-2009, 08:06 PM
Fair point, but what is the alternative? It is the least bad option. Also one hopes that the experience has added to their learning curve. I'll give them a new leaf.



They got that for a reason. Your frustration with the unfairness of the system and the outcomes is understandable but regardless of whether anybody thinks they deserved that or not, or whether they should be punished for their lethargy, bad anticipation, risk management, whatever... the remuneration packages are pre-decided. As Buffet says, only when the tide goes out does one know who's been swimming naked. Which investor hasn't lost money last year?



US is the pivot. That is where money will be made (or lost). Wish you well in your efforts, whevever you choose to invest. God knows, investors are a rare species at the moment...

Yeah I wish you all the luck if you plan to invest in the US markets

Guys I follow that are very bearish on US-Jim rogers
-Peter schiff
-Marc Faber
-Max Keiser
-Jim Sinclair
-gerald celente
-Ron paul

ananda77
04-11-2009, 06:18 AM
Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 03 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i34.tinypic.com/2i8x6ya.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 02 October 2009-


http://i37.tinypic.com/i3rign.jpghttp://i33.tinypic.com/ezo5i.jpg

http://i34.tinypic.com/fz20w7.jpg

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 02 November 2009-


http://i38.tinypic.com/2qwh3jc.jpg...Institutional Core Holdings
http://i36.tinypic.com/i76c8m.jpg...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels
http://i33.tinypic.com/28i2qma.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i38.tinypic.com/b4yrlk.jpg...NYSE Momentum and Strength

US Economic Calendar -data point 03 November 2009-

>US Factory Orders Sept.: actual 0.9% (forecast 1.2%) (consensus 0.8%) (prior -0.8%)
>US Auto Sales October: actual-----(forecast 3.4M) (consensus n/a) (prior n/a)
>USTruck Sales October: actual----- (forecast 3.7M) (consensus n/a) (prior n/a)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 03 November 2009-

… so far, displaying a neutral tone and showing cautious uptick buying power within negative market breadth, the SPX 500 seems set up for a struggle higher from Monday's Low *1029
...an oversold corrective bounce from the *1029/*1033 range of the past few days should create enough momentum to challenge the Oct 29 High *1067, but
...failing *1067, would lead to an even sharper sell-off than the market has seen last week as investors/traders would take to opportunity to add to short positions targeting the October Low *1020 initially
….penetration of *1020 on a Close basis should accelerate losses toward the Jun High *956 with potential to retest the Jul Low *869 before year-end

SPX 500 Hedge -data point 03 November 2009-


http://i38.tinypic.com/14xc7dd.jpg....Cash with Downside Cover

Market Commentary -data point 03 November 2009-

Marc Faber: 'DEEP THOUGHTS' http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/marc%20faber%20nov%201.pdf ...One of the reasons which gave me confidence that stock markets around the world were bottoming out in March 2009 was the fact that several foreign markets and most US equities failed to make new lows (below the lows they had reached between October and November 2008). Chinese stocks bottomed out on October 31, 2008 and did not make a new low in March 2009 (see Figure 17). But now, Chinese stocks have failed to exceed their August 4, 2009 high. So, the way Chinese stocks led the world’s stock markets on the upside, they may now lead global stocks on the downside.

Last month’s commentary concluded that “my principal concern remains that asset markets are quite stretched. The Euro is overbought, the US dollar is oversold, and American and other equities are by and large overbought (see Figure 18). As can be seen from Figure 18, each time the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average goes above 70%, a market correction follows, which then brings down the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average to around 30%.” http://i33.tinypic.com/bj6cu0.jpg...I believe this process is now underway

Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
04-11-2009, 05:43 PM
Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 04 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i36.tinypic.com/2mn2dj5.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 03 October 2009-


http://i37.tinypic.com/i3rign.jpghttp://i35.tinypic.com/141uzkj.jpg

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 03 November 2009-


http://i34.tinypic.com/10ih1eh.jpg...Institutional Core Holdings severing its up-trend line for the first time since October 2008 and it would appear pre-mature to call the current corrective drive done in the midst of this important test of support
http://i35.tinypic.com/2na32bl.jpg...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels
http://i38.tinypic.com/33d8qq9.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i36.tinypic.com/29xf6g6.jpg...NYSE Momentum and Strength

US Economic Calendar -data point 04 November 2009-

>Challenger Job Cuts Oct: actual -50.7% (forecast n/a) (consensus n/a) (prior -30.2%)
>US ADP Employment Report Oct: actual -203K (forecast -235K) (consensus -190K) (prior -254K)
>US ISM Services October: actual-----(forecast 52.0) (consensus 51.5) (prior 50.9)
>US FOMC Rate Decision 11/4 : actual----- (forecast 0.25%) (consensus 0.25%) (prior 0.25%)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 04 November 2009-

…so far, the SPX 500 current advance sped up today but uptick buying power remains remarkably subdued and upticks appear corrective
...as part of an oversold bounce, there is still potential for the correction to reach the Oct 29 High *1067 or the Oct 22 Low *1074 but
….failure below this range could trigger a much more aggressive sell-off over the next several weeks with an initial target of *1020; would not be surprised at all, if an early positive reaction to any kind of manufactured positive reading into the Initial Claims report would be followed by a 'Sell the Fact' reaction igniting the sell-off
…under the bearish scenario, taking out *1020 on a Close basis should accelerate losses toward the Jun High *956 initially with potential to retest the Jul Low *869 before year-end

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 04 November 2009-

...as mentioned in the Stock Market Day Trader update, the SPX 500 appears to have established a strong enough base short term for a potential test of the Oct 29 High *1067
...the question arises, if the SPX 1029/1033 base could turn out to be the bottom of the down turn that started with the October 21 High *1101 and whether or not, the index may be on its way to a new recovery High

...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT

-looking at the SPX 500 Hegde Chart
http://i34.tinypic.com/2i7l9np.jpgthe development is strikingly similar to the two previous instances and again, the index could have been bought at *1034/*1035; however
-checking the daily A/D-Linehttp://i35.tinypic.com/15oyypu.jpga long index position has not yet moved out of the 'High Risk' zone, where the A/D Line would move out of its current downtrend
-additionally, checking pricehttp://i37.tinypic.com/20qbaee.jpgunlike the two previous instances where taking an early long position turned out rewarding, the 'High Risk' zone remains currently still situated below the 50-day MA and the primary March uptrend line and is an awefully long distance from the 200-day MA
...conclusion: if the current S&P 500 Index posture turns out to be another failed H&S pattern, then the next up-side target would be *1230, a big enough target to avoid unnecessary risks at present, especially, if a trader called the current top correctly

Market Commentary -data point 04 November 2009-

Jeffrey Saut: Dow Theory Sell Signal? http://freepdfhosting.com/03eb3eecd0.pdf ...When the going gets tough the tough go on the road. That’s what we did last week and that’s what we are doing again this week, so once again these will likely be the last strategy comments of the week. Nevertheless, last week’s “wilt” left everything we follow lower except for the U.S. Dollar Index. And while the DJIA (9712.73) averted a loss in October, none of the other indices we monitor did. Indeed, the S&P 500 (SPX/1036.19) slid 3.9%, bringing its two-week retreat to 5.6%. While our sense is that we are into a secondary correction, our proprietary overbought/oversold indicator is VERY oversold and the number of S&P 500 stocks that are above their 50-DMAs has fallen from more than 90% to 33.2%. Consequently, we continue to think it is a
mistake to get too bearish. Ergo, until Dow Theory “tells us” otherwise, we think the primary trend remains UP, and we continue to trade, and invest, accordingly.

Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

beacon
05-11-2009, 06:58 AM
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_


This listing is addictive. Beware the constant - on the mark - flow of this man's readings and trading ideas.

delinky
05-11-2009, 07:07 AM
I have been waiting for ananda's comments since 6.00am. :)

ananda77
05-11-2009, 07:16 AM
TA!!!

...the US time has moved back and the market opens at 3:30 am NZ time, so first takes on market action is usually unavailable until a few hours into the trading session until an important intraday pivot point has been reached

Kind Regards

beacon
05-11-2009, 09:51 AM
Guys I follow that are very bearish on US-Jim rogers


Quote from this clip http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=a8fc.G.WUIP8

Rogers agreed with Roubini that the dollar’s decline was encouraging investors to buy more commodities and assets...

“Right now, everybody including me is pessimistic on the U.S. dollar,” Rogers said. “That usually leads to a rally, whatever the asset is, and I would just suspect it’s going to happen again this time...

In contrast to Roubini, Rogers said the only bubble he sees in the Western world now is in U.S. bonds.

ananda77
06-11-2009, 06:31 AM
http://invetrics.com : Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 05 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i38.tinypic.com/3v2gx.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 04 October 2009-


http://i37.tinypic.com/i3rign.jpghttp://i36.tinypic.com/20ifegx.jpg

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 04 November 2009-


http://i33.tinypic.com/2vw73fo.jpg...Institutional Core Holdings
http://i36.tinypic.com/23r4mpz.jpg...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels
http://i37.tinypic.com/nmcaox.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i33.tinypic.com/npkkgj.jpg...NYSE Momentum and Strength

US Economic Calendar -data point 05 November 2009-

>US Productivity-Prel Q3: actual 9.5%(forecast 6.4%) (consensus 6.5%) (prior 6.6%)
>US Initial Claims 10/31: actual 512K (forecast 525K) (consensus 525K) (prior 530K)
>US Continuing Claims 10/24: actual 5749K (forecast 5730K) (consensus 5750K) (prior 5797K)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 05 November 2009-

...everthing sweet and the SPX continues its rally from Mon *1029 Low as epected but -upticks remain corrective- as the Trin dodgedly refused to move out of neutral into bullish territory throughout the session for now; on the other hand, uptick buying power is apparent and daily New Highs are slowly building -someone is either buying carefully without driving the market into a frenzy or institutions are carefully allowing the retail investor to drive the market higher and stealhlike selling into the rally- take a look at today's volume divergencehttp://i36.tinypic.com/2wcpfz7.jpg
...as a consequence, the current advance could still be part of an oversold corrective bounce to challenge the Oct 29 High *1067 or the Oct 22 Low *1074 or given the current momentum, the Oct 26 Congestion *1084 in the next 24 hours before topping out; please note that the test in the Core Holdings is still continuing as it appears that institutions wait for tomorrows unemployment data;
...failure near or below *1067/*1084 tomorrow should trigger a much more aggressive sell-off over the next few weeks with the Oct 02 Low *1020 as an initial target; taking out *1020 on a Close basis should accelerate losses toward the Jun High *956 initially with potential to retest the Jul Low *869 before year-end
...initiating a short position at *1084 -to cover downside risk on equity exposure for now- but if *1084 is taken out, the market most likely will take on the Oct 21 High *1101 with potential for a new recovery High target SPX 500 *1230

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 05 November 2009-

...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT

...the bounce in the SPX 500http://i36.tinypic.com/10gjyo1.jpgover the last three days was characterized by contracting NYSE volume; holding a long position in the 'High Risk Zone'
http://i34.tinypic.com/29llavd.jpgwould have netted approx. 10 points (buy *1034/*1035)
...market action turned south and closed below the 50-day MA and the primary March uptrend line to end the session on a bearish note; risk lingers, that the short term bounce could already have topped today; 'High Risk Zone' uncertainty

Market Commentary -data point 05 November 2009-

Eric Sprott & David Franklin: Surreality Check -Dead Government Walking- http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/11/dead-government-walking-hedge-fund.html ...The equity market performance in November 2007 masked the underlying problems plaguing the financial system at the time, and it’s blindingly apparent that it is doing the same again today. The government has assumed most of the financial system’s liabilities in a giant game of ‘kick the can’. The calls for a new bull market are coming fast and furious. Market participants are bidding up the stocks of companies that are demonstrably bankrupt, and government balance sheets have ballooned to unforeseen levels. As respected market commentator David Rosenberg recently wrote, “the stock market is divorced from economic reality”.1 It’s time for another surreality check, but this time it isn’t the publicly traded companies that deserve attention, it’s the governments that have saved them. Make no mistake – the dead men are still walking – they’re just a lot bigger now than they were two years ago, and they don’t generate earnings – they print money and tax their citizens

David Rosenberg (Gluskin/Sheff): GOLD-ilocks https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles/Breakfast_with_Dave_110509.pdf
...For the first time in a long time, we are thinking about that prospect described above — not that inflation is an immeditate threat but, at the margin, it could surprise us earlier rather than later. So, it may not be a bad idea to look at hedges from all sources — expanding the exposure to gold and commodities, and even TIPS and real return bonds that offer what gold does not — an income stream. Just a thought

Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
07-11-2009, 07:03 AM
...quick update today:

...following the non-farm data, the SPX 500 trades mixed in a bearish environment where decliners comfortably outpace advancers and uptick buying power not worth to talk about so far
...anything else as far as supports/resistance views concerned very much the same like yesterday apart from the fact that says 'short cover' initiated during today's session

SPX 500 analysis:

...for the last five trading days, SPX 500 volumehttp://i35.tinypic.com/smr1vq.jpg declining steadily, an indication of selling into the rally and the current advance having the hallmark of a Counter Push to possibly test the *1084 gap -hourly- potential for *1101 test
...take out any of those pivot points on ascending volume, absolutely needed to talk about an advance to a new recovery high

...the daily SPX 500 A/D Linehttp://i37.tinypic.com/2ele0lw.jpg testing short term down trend line

...VIX dailyhttp://i38.tinypic.com/3478v0o.gifback below primary down trend line indicating positive short term market sentiment

...again the developing H/S pattern still working its way to conclusion

Kind Regards

Kind Regards

arco
09-11-2009, 09:45 AM
Looks like 3 drives to a top, or H&S

http://i35.tinypic.com/281r18x.gif

Hoop
09-11-2009, 02:48 PM
Perhaps one for Hoop - In bull trends early in recovery cycles - how often does a H&S result in a significant retrenchment?

Belg...Depends on the meaning of the word "Significant". I regard a 10% bull market correction as significant...because most investors are in and fully loaded so 10% retrace hurts, and creates a return of investor uncertainty.

Logic ...Bull trends in recovery cycles...mostly get bull market corrections (up to 20% retrace).
...........Bull trends in recovery cycles..reverse to continuation of primary bear..25+% retrace...rare...(below 880)
...........Rare to have only one bull market correction within a cyclic bull market cycle.
...........Extremely rare to have a Cyclic Bear market rally of over 50%.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On chart below ignore the zigzag 8% retracement...I used this chart from a previous project and has no relevance to this analysis.
Zigzag using Elliott wave count and Fibonacci/Dow Theory retracement points are principals which should be included in forecasting analysis when a change in trends emerges...however using 8% in the below chart would in this case be erroneous. They make good trend lines though :) for this post
Note: In this post these principals are not included.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------.
.
Arco suggested a possible H&S formation ... At this moment this formation is not known yet.

The last H&S formation occurred May to Mid July 2009 and created a mild but short bull market correction.

Therefore using H&S principals/ S&R principals/ and trend principals only**.
1100 If this point is reached and index goes higher, the H&S formation never existed and a continuation of the uniform upward trending zigzag pattern continues.
1080 point to watch for establishment of possible H&S formation.
1030/1040 point area to confirm a H&S formation.
1000 A very strong support line..could see the end result from a H&S formation.
980 Another support area.
950 Area ..A bull market correction (15%) can reach this point If this point is broken and the retest is respected then the cyclic bull is questioned.
880 S&R line the big primary line...If this line is broken and the retest is respected then this Cyclic bull market was never a cyclic bull but one gigantic record breaking mother of all bear market rallies and the cyclic bear of 2008 continues on.
** Principals used to observe a possible H&S formaton only.. To attempt a better forecast I suggest you use many more principals as well as these.


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP50006112009.png

ananda77
09-11-2009, 06:44 PM
http://invetrics.com : Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 09 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i35.tinypic.com/swzozd.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 06 October 2009-


http://i37.tinypic.com/fodjm1.jpg http://i33.tinypic.com/2j0m98n.jpg http://i37.tinypic.com/33kfb68.jpg...unless the primary 2007/2008 bear line is taken out, the current bull advance remains unstable

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 06 November 2009-


http://i34.tinypic.com/30t08dx.jpg...Institutional Core Holdings
http://i37.tinypic.com/21a9vkw.jpg...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels http://i35.tinypic.com/2hxunwy.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows http://i36.tinypic.com/wir53o.jpg...NYSE Momentum and Strength

US Economic Calendar -data point 09 November 2009-

>actual-----(forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>actual-----(forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>actual-----(forecast) (consensus) (prior)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 09 November 2009-

...market internals show extreme bullish sentiment for the fourth trading hour now and as a result, the SPX 500 surged to intraday High *1087 and closed the hourly *1084 gap; after penetrating *1084; the index appears capable of testing the October 21 Peak *1101 with potential to surge to *1122 for a test of the 2007/2008 primary downtrend line
...bearing in mind the continuous bearish divergences in momentum, volume, and strength and the fact, the SPX 500 as well as the Nasdaq are lagging the advance behind the Dow for the first time since the March Low, it pays to remain cautious until the market resolves to the up-side, especially if hedged to protect equity exposure, as these facts could be warnings of a potential imminent reversal between *1101/*1122,
…failure below this range will drive the market to the October Low *1020 initially

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 09 November 2009-

...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT

Market Commentary -data point 09 November 2009-

Marc Faber: short term concerns about commodities, says gold may drop to US$800 http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?id=41779&t=1&c=62&cg=4&mset= ...“If you have the private sector withdrawing credit and the government throwing credit at the system you can get a lot of volatility,” Faber said, adding he would be careful to buy equities now as “we are in a correction period.”

Jim Rogers/Marc Faber: agree US dollar due for temporary rebound http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?id=41570&t=1&c=36&cg=4&mset=1041 ...Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg television in Singapore, Rogers said: “Everybody is pessimistic on the dollar. Whenever you have everybody on the same side of the boat, you know what you have to do. We may have a rally in the dollar, a decline in commodity prices or stock prices for a while.”

Marc Faber: As of today, I will be long in dollars -data point 04 November 2009

Long Term: THE BEARhttp://i38.tinypic.com/2utrxwh.jpg......facing a monster
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

Hoop
10-11-2009, 07:39 AM
Hoop quote..."1080 point to watch for establishment of possible H&S formation."

As I write the S&P500 is 1090 up 21. The S&P500 as broken through the 1080 resistance level.

..Arco's suggestion of a bearish H&S pattern forming is a goneburger.

Lego_Man
10-11-2009, 07:49 AM
Time to throw in the towel, we're going straight up forever.

:eek:

ananda77
10-11-2009, 11:15 AM
...the NYSE Trin showed 0.28, indicating extreme bullish sentiment butvolume remains tepid for such an advance; however, if there is a large degree of consensus about market direction, advances are possible with no particular huge volume spikes;

...anyway, my equity investment will enjoy days like that but as far as the hedge is concerned, I need to see 'Follow Ttrough' on a Closing Basis tomorrow to wipe out the possibility of a one day wonder before I go 'cash' again

...after today's advance, the market will most likely power ahead to chew up the SPX 500 *1122 level (= 50% Fibonacci) but that level needs to be confirmed after a break-out before I consider another SPX 500 bullish advance to *1230 initially -its that simple-

Kind Regards

ananda77
10-11-2009, 06:04 PM
http://invetrics.com : Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 10 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i36.tinypic.com/xfs3sx.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 09 October 2009-


http://i37.tinypic.com/fodjm1.jpghttp://i38.tinypic.com/2re1ahh.jpg...unless the primary 2007/2008 bear line is taken out, the current bull advance remains unstable

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 09 November 2009-


http://i38.tinypic.com/izu5tu.jpg...Institutional Core Holdings
http://i35.tinypic.com/zvz8qw.jpg...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels http://i36.tinypic.com/w2g6s2.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows http://i37.tinypic.com/2h2oxma.jpg...NYSE Momentum and Strength

US Economic Calendar -data point 10 November 2009-

>actual-----(forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>actual-----(forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>actual-----(forecast) (consensus) (prior)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 10 November 2009-

...SPX 500 Oct. 21 Peak *1101 still intact as the index stalled at intraday *1096 and appears to be heading for a quick affirmation of the Nov 9 Congestion between *1071/*1081 before another go higher to the *1101 Peak
...if the index manages to successfully stay above the Congestion level, the next advance should lead to athe expected *1101 test with potential to reach higher -*1109/*1122 comes to mind- but the break of the 2007/2009 retrace (50% Fibonacci) will be a tough nut to crack
...failure to go beyond the 2007/2009 Primary Bear Line will leave the current bull cycle on an unstable base and trigger a bearish down drag to test the Oct 2 Low *1020 initially

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 10 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT http://i34.tinypic.com/2qk172p.jpg...'short tilt' to *1084 initially; http://i38.tinypic.com/2rmy55l.jpg

Market Commentary -data point 10 November 2009-

Top Insider Transactions Update: $108 Million In Purchases On $706 Million In Sales, Gates Unloads Over $300 MM In MSFT

Long Term: THE BEARhttp://i34.tinypic.com/dwaz4z.jpg...facing a monster

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

Phaedrus
11-11-2009, 10:15 AM
Should you Buy, Hold, Sell, or move to Cash?

Confused by a plethora of arcane charts?
More can be less.
Here is a Market Overview for simple unsophisticated people like me :-

The uptrend continues.

Stay In.

Be careful.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP1111.gif

ananda77
11-11-2009, 11:03 AM
[QUOTE=Phaedrus;281252]...Confused by a plethora of arcane charts?
More can be less.
Here is a Market Overview for simple unsophisticated people like me :-
QUOTE]

...thanks for the chart update -appreciated-
...but in the future, could you just cut the judgemental crap and get on with posting charts?

Kind Regards

Corporate
11-11-2009, 12:06 PM
[QUOTE=Phaedrus;281252]...Confused by a plethora of arcane charts?
More can be less.
Here is a Market Overview for simple unsophisticated people like me :-
QUOTE]

...thanks for the chart update -appreciated-
...but in the future, could you just cut the judgemental crap and get on with posting charts?

Kind Regards

I totally disagree with your comment Ananda. Phaedrus is making a great point. I also don't see it as judgmental.

ananda77
11-11-2009, 04:51 PM
[QUOTE=ananda77;281270] I totally disagree with your comment Ananda. Phaedrus is making a great point. I also don't see it as judgmental....and so you may... and as far as the view of this thread is concerned Phaedrus posting his chart does make an excellent contribution; but 'being sophisticated' as in opposition to 'being unsophisticated' is a judgemental (emotional) statement relating to a given object, in this instance, the chart; and seeing anything personal in it (which I do not) may be my own perception; I was more concerned, that a person like Phaedrus needs to retort to using a phrase like 'unsophistcated like me' to get whatever point across


You obviously spend a great deal of time Ananda 77 constructing your posts. All your time spent is no doubt appreciated by a number of folks. Myself I find Phaedrus posts quick and easy to understand, I do not think he is having a dig at you personally:)...and so it obviously makes sense to visit this thread to see Phaedrus's chart expressing his take on the SPX 500, if Phaedrus decides to continue to post his charts (I hope and would look forward to his point of view)

...other people may be intrigued by arco's posting expressing his view on the SPX 500 based on the Ichimoku system; I really do look forward to his point of view

...and Hoop with his excellent charting knowledge expressing his view on the SPX 500 based on Dow Theory etc; I really do look forward to his point of view

...I think it is worthwhile keeping a thread going where Hopefully now 3 people (including Phaedrus) -not to forget the Invetrics and Stocktiming contribution- are making valuable contributions to the thread -again Hopefully as often as possible

...also would appreciate a 'CYCLIC' take on the SPX 500 -definitely an exciting expectation; and as far as my information in this regard goes, the cycle people predict a 2 to 3 month up-cycle at least on the NZ Market

Kind Regards

Corporate
11-11-2009, 05:51 PM
...and so you may... and as far as the view of this thread is concerned Phaedrus posting his chart does make an excellent contribution; but 'being sophisticated' as in opposition to 'being unsophisticated' is a judgemental (emotional) statement relating to a given object, in this instance, the chart; and seeing anything personal in it (which I do not) may be my own perception; I was more concerned, that a person like Phaedrus needs to retort to using a phrase like 'unsophistcated like me' to get whatever point across



You are kidding right? The beauty of Phaedrus’ posts is that they are simple, uncluttered, straight forward, and extremely easy to understand. This particular post in question is a perfect example of him eliminating all the "noise", and providing clarity through the use of a chart and annotations. It is the combination of these two aspects that really gets the point across.

ananda77
11-11-2009, 06:11 PM
The beauty of Phaedrus’ posts is that they are simple, uncluttered, straight forward, and extremely easy to understand. This particular post in question is a perfect example of him eliminating all the "noise", and providing clarity through the use of a chart

...could not agree more

Kind Regards

ananda77
11-11-2009, 07:53 PM
http://invetrics.com : Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 11 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i37.tinypic.com/4ggg8h.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 10 October 2009-


http://i37.tinypic.com/fodjm1.jpghttp://i38.tinypic.com/2im1iyr.jpg ...testing the line and unless the primary 2007/2009 bear line is taken out, the current bull advance remains unstable

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 10 November 2009-


http://i33.tinypic.com/2n692yx.jpg...Institutional Core Holdings
http://i33.tinypic.com/2lwvl1k.jpg...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels http://i35.tinypic.com/2vjagbb.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows http://i38.tinypic.com/2h7l1l3.jpg...NYSE Momentum and Strength http://i35.tinypic.com/2nrf3m1.jpg...VIX daily -more volatile markets ahead

US Economic Calendar -data point 11 November 2009-

>actual-----(forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>actual-----(forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>actual-----(forecast) (consensus) (prior)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 11 November 2009-

...the first round of the Bear Line Test has been carried out with bullish sentiment that pushed the SPX 500 to an intraday High *1105 but the index has started to retreat for now; so for the overall bullish advance to continue unabated by short term corrective down-moves, the present move lower needs to find market support around the *1084 (+) range and a successful defense in that range should be the trigger for another rally that should carry the index to the 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 point *1122 via the Sept 30 2008 Low *1107
...as mentioned before, this test is of major consequence for market direction and unless the Bear Line falls and falls earlier rather than later, the continuity of the present cyclical bull remains severly compromised; the only indication for a potential re-test and consequent break of the Bear Line is the Dow's penetration of *10334 to an intraday High *10342
...unusual and a worry is the lagging of the Nasdaq and SPX 500 which so far have been setting the up-pace without fail since the start of the bull rally in March
...failure in the *1107/*1122 range will ignite a rather severe down slide to challenge the Oct Low *1020 initiallyand a penetration of *1020 on a close-basis should drive losses toward the June High *956 with potential to retest the July Low *869

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 11 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT >before market open...the Dow futures are currently at the trendline resistance off the Sep/Oct Peaks *10277, indicating a readiness to challenge the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 break *10334; the SPX 500 futures still lagging but slowly making headway to test the Oct 21 *1101 level with potential for a brief dash to visit the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 break *1122; however, a brief dive to affirm *1072/*1084 is still in play before the big test and would be an opportunity to take a 'long' hedge position for today

update: current position 'short tilt' SPX 500 short*1100/Russell 2002 long*593 for now after Dow futures reached *10331 before market open;
update: >market open ...current position unchanged http://i37.tinypic.com/28uldvk.jpg

http://i38.tinypic.com/2qiaijb.jpg...the SPX 500 A_D line flashed a 'buy' *1073 resulting in an increase in equtiy exposure; as a result, trading below *1071 (at the very latest) would signal a 'short' hedge position to protect equity exposure

Market Commentary -data point 11 November 2009-

Long Term: THE BEARhttp://i34.tinypic.com/dwaz4z.jpg...facing a monster

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

Nevl
12-11-2009, 04:23 PM
6 days of advances. Am short for tonight as I think there will be a lot of profit taking today. Just get that impression from reading the main news sites and the behaviour of the Asian markets. Have already sold the dow from 10300. No chart support for this just a gut feeling.

ananda77
13-11-2009, 06:38 AM
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 12 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i34.tinypic.com/zo71jl.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 11 October 2009-


http://i37.tinypic.com/fodjm1.jpghttp://i35.tinypic.com/2ngzw21.jpg ...testing the line continues

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 11 November 2009-


http://i35.tinypic.com/sw5t0g.jpg ...Institutional Core Holdings
http://i38.tinypic.com/x1njo1.jpg ...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels http://i34.tinypic.com/24yag5v.jpg ...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows http://i38.tinypic.com/2qmmfs9.jpg ...NYSE Momentum and Strength http://i33.tinypic.com/11kw51t.jpg ...VIX daily -more volatile markets ahead

US Economic Calendar -data point 12 November 2009-
>US Initial Claims Nov: actual 502K (forecast 525K) (consensus 510) (prior 512K)
>US Continuing Claims Oct: actual 5631K (forecast 5700K) (consensus 5700K) (prior 5749)
>US MBA Mortgage Applications Nov: +3.2% refis +11.3% purchases -11.7%
>US Treasury Budget Oct: actual----- (forecast -150.0B) (consensus -162.5B) (prior -155.5B)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 12 November 2009-

...the 2007/2009 Bear Line had been punctured yesterday but as expected in a first test, the market quickly started into what appears to turn into a corrective retreat today; the SPX 500 appears to tiptoe its way down to test the *1084 Congestion range but without damaging bullish sentiment as the market remains within a neutral trading sentiment for now;
…a successful defense in that range should trigger another rally that could carry the index to the 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 break-point *1122 via the Sept 30 2008 Low *1107
......failure in the *1107/*1122 range will ignite a rather severe down slide to challenge the Oct Low *1020 initiallyand a penetration of *1020 on a close-basis should drive losses toward the June High *956 with potential to retest the July Low *869

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 12 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT- http://i36.tinypic.com/119mf44.jpg

> before market open:
...after yesterdays trading session ending with a strong Close *1099, the expected retracement to briefly test the *1084 (+) range seems to be underway in the SPX 500 futures trade -again-
...a successful defense seems likely at this juncture since institutions reduced their selling action substantially over the last few dayshttp://i37.tinypic.com/xp1rsz.jpg coupled with continuous liquidity inflows into the market;
...in the meantime, the SPX 500 has played catch up with the Dow yet the Nasdaq still lagging the advancing Dow

current position update: 'short tilt' > short SPX 500 *1100 / long Russ2000 *593

http://i35.tinypic.com/xkq2h3.jpg
>after Market open

current position update: unchanged

Market Commentary -data point 12 November 2009-

http://i35.tinypic.com/33z9pmu.jpg Investment Strategy by Jeffrey Saut: Manifestly, we have argued that with credit spreads below their pre-Lehman bankruptcy levels there should be no reason why the equity markets can’t “fill up” the downside vacuum created in the charts by said bankruptcy. As can be seen in the following chart, that gives the S&P 500 an upside target of 1200 – 1250. If correct, it implies that the cash rich, underinvested portfolio managers (PMs) will once again be forced to chase stocks higher. Our guess is the PMs will chase the “winners” since the March lows rather than buying the laggards. That suggests investments in emerging and frontier markets, technology, financials, base/precious metals, etc. should trade higher if the aforementioned scenario plays.

Long Term: THE BEARhttp://i34.tinypic.com/dwaz4z.jpg...facing a monster

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
13-11-2009, 05:26 PM
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 13 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i34.tinypic.com/zo71jl.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 12 October 2009-


http://i37.tinypic.com/fodjm1.jpghttp://i33.tinypic.com/29fyp8h.jpg ...testing the line continues

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 12 November 2009-


http://i37.tinypic.com/2yo4xdv.jpg ...Institutional Core Holdings
http://i33.tinypic.com/2079sw0.jpg ...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels http://i36.tinypic.com/3485xlt.jpg ...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows ...NYSE Momentum and Strength http://i37.tinypic.com/orv8lt.jpg http://i38.tinypic.com/14j421e.jpg ...VIX daily -more volatile markets ahead

US Economic Calendar -data point 13 November 2009-

>USTrade Balance Sep: actual -36.5B (forecast -$30.0B) (consensus -$31.8B) (prior -$30.7B)
>US Mich Sentiment-Prel Nov: actual 66 (forecast 70.5) (consensus 71.0) (prior 70.6)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 13 November 2009-

...after an initial brisk shake-out, the SPX 500 is on its way higher on bullish internals after successfully affirming support *1085
…the current up-move should carry the index to the Sept 30 2008 Low *1107 at a minimum possible and likely higher to the 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 break-point *1122 within the next few days, but no doubt, the 50% Fibonacci a formidable ceiling
......failure in the *1107/*1122 range will ignite a rather severe down slide to challenge the Oct Low *1020 initiallyand a penetration of *1020 on a close-basis should drive losses toward the June High *956 with potential to retest the July Low *869

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 13 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT- ...yesterday's SPX 500 trading session ended bearish but volume has been very low and the index managed to create New Highs throughout the session, two facts most likely indicating dip-buying; furthermore, although institutional selling remains in an up-trend, they have slightly moved into accumulation and as a consequence, the potential for the SPX 500 to reach *1122 remains in play; the index also bounced off a session Low *1085 as expected
...headwinds are the lagging SPX 500 and Nasdaq still trading below the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 Break and a negative divergence out of China where the Shanghai 180 lagging is the Shanghai Composite a 'tail wags the dog' situation; furthermore, the USD bounced off support
...overall the market seems to be rather neutral with still an up-potential, but if the headwinds persist longer, a deeper correction as outlined could be on the horizon
...the Hedge Chart http://i35.tinypic.com/ma9r4m.jpg shows a tentative SPX 500 Top *1105 and the up-trend line horizontal which translates into a neutral position


> before market open: current position update: neutral with downside cover


>after Market opencurrent position update: long intra-day trade Russ2000 *583.4 - *587.6; Cash for weekend with downside cover

http://i37.tinypic.com/al421x.jpg

Market Commentary -data point 13 November 2009-

David Rosenberg: SHORTS STILL BEING COVERED https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles/Afternoon_Tea_with_Dave_111209.pdf ...When looking for where the buying power for U.S. equities has been coming from, there have been three primary sources.

1. Hedge funds who have had their margin lines re-established this year.
2. Equity portfolio managers taking cash ratios back down to late -2007 levels.
3. And short covering, which seems to be ongoing as short funds try and reverse at least part of the average 31.5% loss suffered this year. So what we just saw — a 3.24% plunge in short interest on the Big Board through the last half of October goes a long way towards explaining this latest move in the major averages to new post-crisis highs.

Long Term: THE BEARhttp://i34.tinypic.com/dwaz4z.jpg...facing a monster

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

winner69
17-11-2009, 05:24 AM
This story says the party is over .... even mentions we are back to times of Enron and Worldcom etc to keep the market bubbling along ... we never learn

http://au.us.biz.yahoo.com/etfguide/091116/439_id.html?.v=1

ananda77
17-11-2009, 06:41 AM
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 16 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i34.tinypic.com/zo71jl.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 14 October 2009-


http://i36.tinypic.com/2h4c6di.jpghttp://i37.tinypic.com/314w3zd.jpg ...testing the line continues

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 14 November 2009-


http://i36.tinypic.com/11tvatv.jpg ...Institutional Core Holdings http://i34.tinypic.com/10cm6mt.jpg...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels http://i36.tinypic.com/34t1ixj.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows http://i38.tinypic.com/29vjxw9.jpg...NYSE Momentum and Strength http://i36.tinypic.com/11rzlgp.jpg...VIX daily -more volatile markets ahead

US Economic Calendar -data point 16 November 2009-

>US Retail Sales Oct: actual 1.4% (forecast 0.7%) (consensus 0.9%) (prior -1.5%)
>US Retail Sales ex autos Oct: actual 0.2%(forecast 0.1%) (consensus 0.4%) (prior 0.5%)
>US Empire Manufacturing: actual 23.51 (forecast 20.5) (consensus 30.0) (prior 34.57)
>US Business Inventories Sep: actual----- (forecast -1.0%) (consensus -0.7%) (prior -1.5%)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 16 November 2009-

...as expected, the SPX 500 surged higher on super bullish internals most likely determined to challenge the 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 break *1122 after the Sept. 30 2008 High *1107 was left behind easily
...still, the Nasdaq and SPX 500 keep lagging behind the Dow as a First since March 2009 and that remains a strange set up for this advance coupled with ongoing ultra low volume; no doubt, the 50% Fibonacci a formidable ceiling
......failure in the *1107/*1122 range will ignite a rather severe down slide to challenge the Oct Low *1020 initially and a penetration of *1020 on a close-basis should drive losses toward the June High *956 with potential to retest the July Low *869

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 16 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

...the SPX 500 A_D line weekly http://i37.tinypic.com/os7bch.jpgtracking higher in the current up-trend but

short-term SPY Momentum http://i35.tinypic.com/289brlk.jpg indicates !Caution! because markets are most prone to reversal when readings > 1.0 no longer are associated with fresh price highs (Brett Steenbarger) -data point 14 November 2009-

…!Caution! Short term (60 min frame) indicates institutional buy action loosing strength -data point 14 November 2009-

http://i34.tinypic.com/zlw30x.jpg


> before market open: current position update: long intraday trade Russ2000 *587.9 - *591.1; Cash for now

http://i34.tinypic.com/2s9dnpc.jpg


>after Market opencurrent position update: Cash for now with tight downside cover


Market Commentary -data point 16 November 2009-

David Rosenberg: https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles/Breakfast_with_Dave_111609.pdf ...As an aside, S&P 500 operating earnings are coming in north for $15 for Q3, a quarter in which GDP growth came in at a 3.5% annual rate. Few believe we will sustain that growth rate but think about it for a second, the best we could do with 3.5% growth was an annualized earnings figure of $60 for operating EPS. So where does this thought process come from that we are going to be seeing anything close to $80 of earnings for 2010 — what the equity market has de facto priced in — with a consensus view that we will only see 2.5% GDP growth for next year?

Long Term: THE BEARhttp://i34.tinypic.com/dwaz4z.jpg...facing a monster

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
18-11-2009, 06:34 AM
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 17 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i36.tinypic.com/2hyyxld.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 16 October 2009-


http://i36.tinypic.com/2h4c6di.jpg http://i34.tinypic.com/1se3id.jpg ...below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 16 November 2009-


http://i36.tinypic.com/osbwwh.jpg...Institutional Core Holdings
http://i38.tinypic.com/1127g3n.jpg...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels http://i33.tinypic.com/2gv7ln6.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows http://i38.tinypic.com/2cxxr14.jpg...NYSE Momentum and Strength http://i35.tinypic.com/9v8pd2.jpg...VIX daily -more volatile markets ahead

US Economic Calendar -data point 17 November 2009-

>US Core PPI Oct: actual -0.6% (forecast 0.2%) (consensus 0.1%) (prior -0.1%)
>US PPI Oct : actual 0.3% (forecast 0.7%) (consensus 0.5%) (prior -0.6%)
>US Capacity Utilization Oct: actual 70.7% (forecast 70.5%) (consensus 70.8%) (prior 70.5%)
>US Industrial Production Oct: actual 0.1% (forecast 0.2%) (consensus 0.4%) (prior 0.7%)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 17 November 2009-

...the USD gained ground overnight but still trading below the 0.76 mark, well within the triangle set-up
...the SPX 500 trading off Monday's High *1114 moving down in a corrective fashion as opposed to plunging based on rather neutral market internals; potential to challenge the 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 Break *1122 in the next couple of days is therefore still in play
...a technical SPX 500 perspective:
-above the 2007/2009 primary bear line resistance
-below 50% Fibonacci
-below May/June/August/September/October trendline resistance
...at this stage taking out the 50% Fibonacci and upper trendline resistance decisively would land the index in 'Blow-Off' territory and as a result, it is not hard to imagine that 1122/*1146 will form formidable ceiling targets from which the index could start a deeper correction
...failure in the *1107/*1122 range will ignite a rather severe down slide to challenge the Oct Low *1020 initially and a penetration of *1020 on a close-basis should drive losses toward the June High *956 with potential to retest the July Low *869

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 17 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

http://i34.tinypic.com/2a0e1p3.jpg http://i34.tinypic.com/212wmso.jpg

...a super bullish trading day -data point 16 November 2009; the only negative speck: the remarkable negative buying power tick on the NYSE at 15:00 pm
...the other story of the day was the fate of the USD http://i33.tinypic.com/291yukj.jpg which traded to its lowest point since August 2008 and appears to be quite oversold at this stage; the direction of the dollar break-out will be crucial for equity positioning

http://i33.tinypic.com/9znins.jpg …in the same way the USD has room for another spike lower, the SPX 500 index has room for another spike higher, especially as volume accumulated around the *1108/*1109 level yesterday but another up-move is far from certain;


> before market open: current position update: 'short tilt' > long/short with stops in the USD break-out direction

http://i49.tinypic.com/2liilmu.jpg


>after Market opencurrent position update: Cash after successful conclusion of 'short tilt' this morning based on SPX 500 – Russ2000 brief divergence

Market Commentary -data point 17 November 2009-

Meredith Whitney: Meredith Whitney Is Back To Her Uber-Bearish Ways, "Stock Market Makes No Sense" http://www.zerohedge.com/article/meredith-whitney-back-her-uber-bearish-ways-stock-market-makes-no-sense (video)
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6575883/China-has-now-become-the-biggest-risk-to-the-world-economy.html ...China has now become the biggest risk to the world economy...
Far from taking over as the engine of growth from an exhausted West, China is making matters worse. Its "beggar-thy-neighbour" policies continue to play havoc with global trade and risk tipping the world into a second leg of the Great Recession.

Long Term: THE BEARhttp://i34.tinypic.com/dwaz4z.jpg...facing a monster

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
19-11-2009, 07:01 AM
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 18 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i50.tinypic.com/6xq1wp.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 17 October 2009-


http://i36.tinypic.com/2h4c6di.jpg http://i49.tinypic.com/t0ru6q.jpg ...below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 17 November 2009-


http://i50.tinypic.com/25usj6v.jpg...Institutional Core Holdings
http://i46.tinypic.com/2z3zbqa.jpg...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels http://i45.tinypic.com/iee23l.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows http://i47.tinypic.com/307ltvp.jpg...NYSE Momentum and Strength http://i49.tinypic.com/2rnhnrl.jpg...VIX daily -more volatile markets ahead

US Economic Calendar -data point 18 November 2009-

>US Housing Starts: actual 529K (forecast 585K) (consensus 600K) (prior 590K)
>US Building Permits Oct: actual 552K (forecast 585K) (consensus 580K) (prior 573K)
>US CPI Oct: actual 0.3% (forecast 0.2%) (consensus 0.2%) (prior 0.2%)
>US Core CPI Oct: actual 0.2% (forecast 0.0%) (consensus 0.1%) (prior 0.2%)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 18 November 2009-

...based on current market internals, downticks today point to ongoing consolidation in the SPX 500 below the November 16 High *1114 and as long as *1101 remains respected, the potential to challenge the 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 Break *1122 or the May/June/August/September/October trendline resistance *1143 further up in the next couple of days is still in play
...todays disappointing housing data did not inspire much confidence in the market, the USD so far refuses to break below the 75 level likely based on concerns of entering a very crowded trade on the short side and the index enters just about 'Blow-Off' territory on further upside
...as a consequence, the 50% Fibonacci and upper trendline resistance *1122/*1146 will form formidable ceiling targets from which the index could start a deeper correction
...failure in the *1107/*1122 range will ignite a rather severe down slide to challenge the Oct Low *1020 initially and a penetration of *1020 on a close-basis should drive losses toward the June High *956 with potential to retest the July Low *869

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 18 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

..ending the day 1 up on internals that favored selling, the SPX 500 seems to be in no-mans-land (or consolidating) for the expected spike up to *1122; for this spike to happen, the index needs to trade past *1107 and whatever downside will happen intraday, *1101 short term support should not be penetraded

http://i46.tinypic.com/2uzw9l0.jpg


> before market open: current position update: Cash

http://i45.tinypic.com/2e2kuqb.jpg


>after Market opencurrent position update: long Russ2000 *597.7

Market Commentary -data point 18 November 2009-

Mike Whitney: What Minksy Saw - Why the Crisis Isn't Going Away http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney11032009.html ...Goldman Sachs analysts put it like this:
"How much of the rebound in real GDP was due to the fiscal stimulus, and where do we stand in terms of the effects of stimulus thus far?* Although precise answers are impossible at this juncture, several aspects of the report are consistent with our estimates that the fiscal package enacted in mid-February as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) would have accounted for virtually all of the growth reported for the third quarter."

Long Term: THE BEARhttp://i34.tinypic.com/dwaz4z.jpg...facing a monster

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
20-11-2009, 08:23 AM
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 19 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i45.tinypic.com/2nu0fg7.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 18 October 2009-


http://i36.tinypic.com/2h4c6di.jpghttp://i49.tinypic.com/3582kiu.jpg ...below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 18 November 2009-


http://i50.tinypic.com/nfmvlx.jpg...Institutional Core Holdings
http://i49.tinypic.com/1175kes.jpg...Institutional selling action http://i49.tinypic.com/25zpabd.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflowshttp://i46.tinypic.com/23m35md.jpg...NYSE Momentum and Strengthhttp://i49.tinypic.com/sl47jt.jpg...VIX daily -more volatile markets ahead

US Economic Calendar -data point 19 November 2009-

>US Initial Claims: actual 505K (forecast 510K) (consensus 504K) (prior 502K)
>US Continuing Claims 11/13: actual 5611K (forecast 5580) (consensus 5598) (prior 5631)
>US Leading Indicators Oct : actual 0.3% (forecast 0.5%) (consensus 0.4%) (prior 1.0%)
>US Philadelphia Fed Nov: actual 16.7 (forecast 12.0) (consensus 12.2) (prior 11.5)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 19 November 2009-

...the SPX 500 broke through *1102 to the downside unable to even try the November 16 High *1114 indicating a delay to challenge the 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 Break *1122 or the May/June/August/September/October trendline resistance *1143 further up
...at this stage the down-move remains corrective to the November 6 High *1071, the maximum down target for another bullish advance, but the next closer technical target to act as a platform could be the March primary up-trend line *1083/September 23 High *1080 range
...based on continuous disappointing economic data and a USD so far refusing to break below the 75 level (there is currently a 90% correlation between the USD and the SPX 500) the 50% Fibonacci and upper trendline resistance *1122/*1146 will form formidable ceiling targets from which the index could start a deeper correction
...failure in the *1114/*1122/*1143 range will ignite a rather severe down slide to challenge the Oct Low *1020 initially and a penetration of *1020 on a close-basis should drive losses toward the June High *956 with potential to retest the July Low *869
...on the other hand failing *1071, the deeper correction would be already on its way and the next immidiate down targets in view would be Oct 30 Low *1033 and further down the 200 MA *1012

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 19 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

-a super up-trend and two inside days in a row http://i48.tinypic.com/28l2sn.jpg

-the SPX 500 A_D line daily diverging on selling http://i45.tinypic.com/2my0rd0.jpg

-USD still supported at the 75 level http://i50.tinypic.com/m9o96b.jpg

-the market appears exhausted ahead of challenging the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 Break *1122 and the trendline resistance*1143 combined with a mix of unconvincing economic data -US Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 Thursday:

...the SPX 500 Hedge Chart: the market is in a 50:50 each way situation, too risky to leave equity investments unprotected

http://i46.tinypic.com/2qulxxj.jpg


> before market open: current position update: 'short tilt' with tight downside sell stops

http://i46.tinypic.com/2ewiir9.jpg


>after Market opencurrent position update: short

Market Commentary -data point 19 November 2009-

Marc Faber: Marc Faber sees rise in asset markets and unemployment as double effect of money printing http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?id=42168&t=1&c=36&cg=4&mset=1011 ...On the S&P 500, he says, it is unlikely to break below low of 666. It may however go up to 1200 next year after revisiting 900 levels, he adds...

Long Term: THE BEARhttp://i34.tinypic.com/dwaz4z.jpg...facing a monster

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

beacon
20-11-2009, 06:29 PM
In his ruminations for December 09 , Gross says BUY stocks.

ananda77
20-11-2009, 06:55 PM
In his ruminations for December 09 , Gross says BUY stocks.

...go ahead and hopefully a bit cheaper then they are now -nothing wrong with that I guess-

Kind Regards

ananda77
21-11-2009, 08:40 AM
...short update:

...the SPX 500 seems still a bit soft but according to internals some buying interest around the current levels, maybe taking a position ahead of a possible *1102 challenge Monday; USD stronger and testing 50-day MA; other than that the Friday up-date remains current for now

...current position: short position covered *1087.6 for now; Cash with downside stops

Sunday afternoon 'wifey in arm' reading:

Barrons: UP AND DOWN WALL STREET -Treasury Yield Plunge Sends Warning- http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125869502873557185.html?mod=BOL_hpp_dc ...the economy is supposed to be well on the way to recovery, in contrast to late last year when it seemed we stood on the precipice of a second Great Depression. The Dow is back above 10,000 and bulls claim all's right with the world. Why, then, would any rational investor be willing to lock up money for two years for the paltry return of less than two-thirds of 1%?...

[Economic Sense versus Political Limitations]

Mike Whitney: Things Could Get Ugly Fast http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=16177 ...Things could get ugly fast. With the Democrats backing-off on a second round of stimulus, the Fed signaling an end to quantitative easing, and Obama moaning about rising deficits; there's a good chance that the stumbling recovery could turn into another sharp plunge. Bank lending is shrinking, consumers spending is off, housing prices are falling, unemployment is soaring and the wholesale credit markets are in a shambles. This isn't the time to slash government support in the name of "fiscal responsibility". Obama needs to ignore the gloomsters and alarmists and pay attention to the Nobel laureates like Joe Stiglitz and Paul Krugman. They're the guys who know how to steer the ship to safe water...

Société Générale: "Worst-Case Debt Scenario" -3 possible scenarios- http://www.slideshare.net/investoralist/sg-worst-case-debt-scenario

Kind Regards

Phaedrus
22-11-2009, 09:26 AM
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP1122.gif

ananda77
24-11-2009, 05:30 AM
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 23 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i48.tinypic.com/11gnddx.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 20 October 2009-


http://i47.tinypic.com/3328mfc.jpg http://i48.tinypic.com/30vp1cy.jpg ...testing support of upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 20 November 2009-


http://i48.tinypic.com/2iiju34.jpg...Institutional Core Holdings
http://i46.tinypic.com/2ynjvp1.jpg...Institutional selling action daily
http://i50.tinypic.com/wiqbv8.jpg...Institutional Index daily
http://i48.tinypic.com/2znxt37.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows

US Economic Calendar -data point 23 November 2009-

>US Existing Home Sales: actual 6.1M (forecast 5.85M) (consensus 5.7M) (prior 5.57M)
>US: actual---- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>US: actual---- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>US: actual---- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 23 November 2009-

...SPX 500 surged higher after housing data; the Nov 16 Peak *1114 has not been eclipsed yet, but current momentum should carry the index past the mark to challenge the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 Break *1122 or the May/June/August/September/October trendline resistance *1143 later in the week
...the USD still holding the *75 level so it is too early to determine if the current advance will be sustainable in the face of the above two formidable ceiling targets
…...failure in the *1122/*1040 range will ignite a rather severe down slide to challenge the Oct Low *1020 initially and a penetration of *1020 on a close-basis should drive losses toward the June High *956 with potential to retest the July Low *869

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 23 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

...the USD -with a currently 90% correlation to the SPX 500- in a real squeeze and ready to break out http://i48.tinypic.com/svnqc9.jpgthe direction of the break-out would most likely be the major determinant for further SPX 500 moves;
...if the break-out is to the upside, the potential for a false break will be greatly reduced with an USD index Close above a minimum *76.85
...if the break-out is to the downside it would pay to wait to go long the SPX 500 until the USD index trades below *74.4 on a Close basis below Monday's November 16 Low *74.6,
...interesting as well and an indication that equities are most likely topping out (SPX 500 *1122/*1143 range (??) is long term liquidity flows into the market http://i49.tinypic.com/205b1pd.jpg: each time the market corrects, more money is flowing out of the market into the treasury market an explanation, why yields have been trading into negative territory again:

-safe haven buying to lock in equitiy profits as part of year end window dressing

...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

http://i47.tinypic.com/2aik2vk.jpg


> before market open:current position update: Cash

http://i46.tinypic.com/impki9.jpg


>after Market opencurrent position update: Cash - trade short *111.3 covered *1109.0 - Cash


Market Commentary -data point 23 November 2009-

Paul Krugman: Interest rates: the phantom menace http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/20/interest-rates-the-phantom-menace/ ...I just don’t think the inner circle gets how much danger we’re in from another vicious circle, one that’s real, not hypothetical. The longer high unemployment drags on, the greater the odds that crazy people will win big in the midterm elections — dooming us to economic policy failure on a truly grand scale...

The Economist: The deficit problem -Dealing with America's fiscal hole- http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14915152 ...A sudden crisis is unlikely. Other rich countries with far bigger debts relative to the size of their economies, from Italy to Japan, have soldiered on without hitting a wall. Stable politics, transparent laws and economic dominance give America unequalled credibility with lenders. For all the anxiety the declining dollar drew from China this week, it has no serious rival as the world’s reserve currency. America has sensibly used this fiscal freedom to enact an aggressive stimulus programme. This should be maintained for as long as it is needed....


Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
25-11-2009, 06:46 AM
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 24 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i50.tinypic.com/2vtytuf.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 23 October 2009-


http://i47.tinypic.com/3328mfc.jpg http://i49.tinypic.com/166ep1i.jpg ...testing support of upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 23 November 2009-


http://i48.tinypic.com/33elzeq.jpg...Institutional Core Holdings -holding above support and closing above the Oct 7 2008 level
http://i49.tinypic.com/htiq1w.jpg...Institutional selling action daily -accumulating less
http://i49.tinypic.com/2me72vt.jpg...Institutional Index daily -indication of late in the move and higher risk levels
http://i45.tinypic.com/30a55bt.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -liquidity made a lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding

US Economic Calendar -data point 24 November 2009-

>US GDP - Second Estimate Q3: actual 2.8% (forecast 2.8%) (consensus 2.8%) (prior 3.5%)
>US GDP Deflator-2ndEstimate Q3: actual 0.5% (forecast 0.8%) (consensus 0.8%) (prior 0.8%)
>US Case Shiller 20 City Indx Sep: actual -9.36% (forecast -9.25%) (consensus -9.10%) (prior -11.32%)
>US Consumer Confidence Nov: actual 49.5 (forecast 46.3) (consensus 47.5) (prior 47.7)
>USFHFA Home Price Index Sep : actual -0.5% (forecast -0.2%) (consensus 0.1%) (prior -0.3%)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 24 November 2009-

...the SPX 500 hanging in above *1091 within a neutral trading day but as long as *1091 holds, the market is in for another advance towards the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 Break *1122 or the May/June/August/September/October trendline resistance *1138 later in the week
...the USD again bounced off the *75 support and the lower top in the liquidity flow indicates the index topping out; it appears, the way of lowest resistance may be down for a deeper correction
...…...failure in the *1122/*1040 range will ignite a rather severe down slide to challenge the Oct Low *1020 initially and a penetration of *1020 on a close-basis should drive losses toward the June High *956 with potential to retest the July Low *869

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 24 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

...the USD in a squeeze and the *75 level still holding; the new Dow recovery High remained unconfirmed by Dow complex members Transport/Utilities as well as other major US indices SPX 500, Nasdaq, NYSE Composite; market internals reported an extreme bullish start with Advancers outpacing Decliners 10:1 at market Open before selling into the advance set the ratio back to 3.5:1 consistent with the November 16 SPX 500 High *1114;

-volume not jumping out of a box
-a negative MACD weekly divergence
-ongoing divergences amongst the major US indexes

...there is a potential risk for the market to test the 20-day/50-day MA or upsloping trendline support at a minimum

...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

http://i45.tinypic.com/16bzsw3.jpg


> before market open:current position update: 'short tilt'

http://i48.tinypic.com/vrujb6.jpg


>after Market opencurrent position update: unchanged with downside stops


Market Commentary -data point 24 November 2009-

David Rosenberg: The Recession may have ended … but the Depression has not https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles/Lunch_with_Dave_112409.pdf .. Secular shifts — we believe that the U.S. is undergoing a secular social transformation that will affect our attitudes toward debt, savings, spending and homeownership...

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
26-11-2009, 06:56 AM
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 25 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i46.tinypic.com/2uzfhjo.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 24 October 2009-


http://i47.tinypic.com/3328mfc.jpg http://i50.tinypic.com/1zvfqe.jpg ...testing support of upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 24 November 2009-


http://i47.tinypic.com/2di1q1f.jpg...Institutional Core Holdings -holding above support and closing above the Oct 7 2008 level
http://i48.tinypic.com/141tiqx.jpg...Institutional selling action daily -accumulating less
http://i50.tinypic.com/2jex011.jpg...Institutional Index daily -indication of late in the move and higher risk levels
http://i47.tinypic.com/286xv82.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -liquidity made a lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding

US Economic Calendar -data point 25 November 2009-

>US Personal Income Oct: actual 0.2% (forecast 0.1%) (consensus 0.1%) (prior 0.0%)
>US Personal Spending Oct: actual 0.7% (forecast 0.3%) (consensus 0.5%) (prior -0.5%)
>US PCE Prices Oct: actual 0.2% (forecast 0.2%) (consensus 0.1%) (prior -0.5%)
>US PCE Prices-Core Oct: actual 0.2% (forecast 0.1%) (consensus 0.1%) (prior 0.1%)
>US Initial Claims 11/21: actual 466K (forecast 510K) (consensus 500K) (prior 505K)
>US Continuing Claims 11/14: actual 5423K (forecast 5630K) (consensus 5565K) (prior 5611K)
>US Durable Orders Oct: actual -0.6% (forecast 0.3%) (consensus 0.5%) (prior 1.0%)
>US Durable Orders ex Transport Oct: actual -1.3% (forecast 0.5%) (consensus 0.6%) (prior 0.9%)
>US Mich Sentiment-Rev Nov: actual 67.4 (forecast 65.0) (consensus 67.0) (prior 66.0)
>US New Home Sales Oct: actual 430K (forecast 420K) (consensus 404K) (prior 402K)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 25 November 2009-

...the USD declined below *75 and appears to be heading towards the July 2008 Lows, yet the current SPX 500 rally up from November 23 Low *1091 is subdued and choppy unable to extent beyond the November 16 Peak *1114 so far -maybe it is the pre-holiday situation-
...anyway, the index managed a small gain so far and appears determined to try the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 Break *1122 or the May/June/August/September/October trendline resistance *1148 later in the week
...failure in the *1122/*1040 range will ignite a rather severe down slide to challenge the Oct Low *1020 initially and a penetration of *1020 on a close-basis should drive losses toward the June High *956 with potential to retest the July Low *869

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 25 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

…not much change from yesterday's market charts in regards to divergences, just another day of profit taking with NYSE breadth 16:14 negative and Nasdaq 16:11;


...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

http://i46.tinypic.com/15psqiv.jpg


> before market open:current position update: neutral with downside stops

http://i48.tinypic.com/11jpz09.jpg


>after Market opencurrent position update: neutral with downside stops


Market Commentary -data point 25 November 2009-

IMF: Half of banks' losses may be unknown: IMF chief http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE5AN4QD20091124 ...In an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro, Strauss-Kahn also said the IMF thought the euro currency was probably a bit too strong.
"There are still some important losses that have not been unveiled," Strauss-Kahn was quoted as saying in response to a question on banks, according to excerpts of the interview that were sent to media ahead of publication on Wednesday.
"It's possible that 50 percent (of bank losses) are still hidden in their balance sheets. The proportion is greater in Europe than in the United States," he said.

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
27-11-2009, 07:57 AM
-US Market closed for Thanksgiving 26 November 2009

http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 26 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)



The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 25 October 2009-


http://i47.tinypic.com/3328mfc.jpg ...testing support of upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 25 November 2009-


...Institutional Core Holdings
...Institutional selling action daily
...Institutional Index daily
...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows indicating deeper negative implications if holding

US Economic Calendar -data point 26 November 2009-

>US: actual---- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>US: actual---- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>US: actual---- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>US: actual---- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>US: actual---- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)


Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 26 November 2009-

...SPX 500 and the Dow futures sold off to near November 20 Low *1085/*10356 respectively
...the Dow as the leading index, bounced off slightly and further trading action below *10356 would strongly indicate, that a deeper correction has started

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 25 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

...the continuous USD decline http://i50.tinypic.com/mb4fao.jpg leaves equity markets not much downward correction space considering that further increases on corporate earnings rely heavily on a weak USD supportive of ex-patria earnings; while the divergences in the major US indexes remain (market breadth: NYSE 20:9 positive versus Nasdaq 12:14 megative) one possible explanation for an investor shift to large caps appears to be the just that, the declining USD which favors large global coporations;
...again, the key to any change in market sentiment appears to be the fate of the USD, closing in on the March 2008 Low *70.69;


...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

http://i50.tinypic.com/15nujaw.jpg


> before market open:current position update: neutral to *1091 with downside stops

http://i48.tinypic.com/15d8xl.jpg


>after Market opencurrent position update: short covered at *1085.6; neutral with dowside stops


Market Commentary -data point 26 November 2009-

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

arco
27-11-2009, 05:12 PM
Looks a bit likeThree Drives to a top

ananda77
28-11-2009, 12:57 PM
...after a volatile Thursday reaction to the Dubai news, the following Friday short trading session featured a partial recovery amidst heavy selling (NYSE market breadth 4:25 negative/Nasdaq 4:21negative) which just stopped short of the important bullish *1098 mark minimum; this may indicate that traders, who already considered locking in profits for the season, to just finally go ahead and do it; however, in this situation not many people would be likely to be 'long' exposed over the weekend
...the USD safe heaven inspired buying did not even make it above the *75 mark, so the Dubai impact may not have that much of an impact, but it may be too early to be definite about anything at this stage
...as far as trading is concerned, SPX 500 trading entertaining the *1098/*1105 range could be considered bullish with view to go at the 50% retracement *1122 or *1048 further up, if *1105
eats dust
...failure below the *1098/*1105 range indicates another violent down drag to be in the cards targeting SPX 500 November 2 Low *1029 minimum (-)

current position update: neutral with downside stops

Phaedrus
29-11-2009, 04:50 PM
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP1129.gif

ananda77
01-12-2009, 05:39 PM
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 01 December 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i45.tinypic.com/x59zsz.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 30 November 2009-


http://i47.tinypic.com/29dhkr7.jpg http://i45.tinypic.com/2pyt55i.jpg ...testing support of upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 30 November 2009-


http://i45.tinypic.com/34i1kqb.jpg...Institutional Core Holdings - closed higher while holding above its blue support line and closing slightly below the Oct. 7 2008 support level.
http://i49.tinypic.com/5vnh1f.jpg...Institutional selling action daily -Selling trend lines moving sideways.
http://i48.tinypic.com/2hzpf.jpg...Institutional Index daily -late in the move and risk levels continue to increase
http://i49.tinypic.com/2h5pc7l.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -slight uptick -lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding

US Economic Calendar -data point 01 December 2009 -

>USConstruction Spending Oct: actual 0.0% (forecast -0.7%) (consensus -0.5%) (prior 0.8%)
>US ISM Index Nov: actual 53.6 (forecast 54.0) (consensus 55.0) (prior 55.7)
>USPending Home Sales Oct: actual 3.7% (forecast -3.0%) (consensus -1.0%) (prior 6.1%)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 01 December 2009 -

...SPX 500 *1105 taken out -bullish market internals -87% of SPX 500 stocks are up -financials down slightly -the break-out at *1114 appears almost a foregone conclusion
...next SPX 500 near term targets in sight:
-the 50% retracement of the 2007/2008 Break *1122 and the May/June/August/September/October trendline resistance *1148
......failure in the *1122/*1040 range will ignite a rather severe down slide to challenge the Oct Low *1020 initially and a penetration of *1020 on a close-basis should drive losses toward the June High *956 with potential to retest the July Low *869

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 01 December 2009 - ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

...the USD http://i45.tinypic.com/16719ae.jpg still testing *75, but the recent Low remains temporary until the dollar closes above *75.88,
...the SPX 500 has stalled at *1098 resistance but declines have not done much damage as to confirm a bearish trend reversal;
...today's volume http://i46.tinypic.com/168ue00.jpg looks interesting and the SPX 500 A_D Line weekly http://i50.tinypic.com/2eyxcm9.jpg remains in an uptrend although the daily data is flat-lining
...large cap versus small cap inter-market divergences continue and unless all markets -ex USD- make a new recovery High -fast-, current market behavior indicates a continuous roll-over process

...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

http://i49.tinypic.com/34xm7n9.jpg


> before market open:current position update: Cash -Downside Stops-

http://i45.tinypic.com/x0p4t2.jpg


>after Market opencurrent position update: unchanged

Market Commentary -data point 01 December 2009-

Jeffrey Saut: Don`t Worry About the Dollar! http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm ...the divergences we have cited for the past month continue to mount. Most notable has been the lagging performance of the previously market-leading small/mid-cap stocks in favor of the large caps. This is what typically happens after a “run” like we have seen because portfolio managers don’t want to “bet” their jobs, which they are not when playing the large cap universe. Over the past few months we have suggested that portfolios be tilted toward large caps for this reason...

...as far as the Dubai induced sell-off concerned, EWI has the following to say: "Friday’s holiday-shortened stock market plunge is being blamed on the Dubai debt crises but that cannot be the case because the Dubai news story broke around noontime on Wednesday yet the S&P rallied to a new high for the day near 2:45 pm, over two hours later. If this piece of news was the cause of the market’s big drop then it should have started Wednesday afternoon in the U.S. stock market. Moreover, today it was announced the U.A.E. Central Bank eased credit for lenders and said it “stands behind” local and foreign banks as they face the prospect of rising losses from Dubai World’s possible default (Bloomberg). Again, if the Dubai news was driving the market shouldn’t stocks have recovered all or nearly all of the decline on today’s U.A.E. Central Bank announcement?

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

arco
02-12-2009, 10:17 PM
.
Action is struggling at the red resistance line. As we have seen a lower low perhaps we could see a test of that red line to pick up orders stacked on the other side and then maybe a reverse.


http://i49.tinypic.com/2vsent0.gif

ananda77
03-12-2009, 07:02 AM
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 02 December 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i49.tinypic.com/2zz6s1g.jpghttp://i48.tinypic.com/2z4a4qq.jpg ...annualized Invetrics Timing Signal Performance starting October 2009

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 01 December 2009-


http://i47.tinypic.com/29dhkr7.jpg http://i49.tinypic.com/mv0o61.jpg ...testing support of upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 01 December 2009-


http://i50.tinypic.com/2ezjtz6.jpg ...transportation triple top
http://i48.tinypic.com/21ccqgz.jpg...Institutional Core Holdings - closed higher while holding above its blue support line and closing slightly above the Oct. 7 2008 support level-
http://i48.tinypic.com/2dce9gj.jpg...Institutional selling action daily -Institutional Selling trend lines positive bias-
http://i49.tinypic.com/156bgb8.jpg...Institutional Index daily -divergence: strength trending down, while Institutional "core holdings" index moving sideways >late in the move and high risk levels-
http://i45.tinypic.com/149nqsw.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -uptick -lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding

US Economic Calendar -data point 02 December 2009 -

>US Challenger Job Cuts Nov: actual -72.3%(forecast n/a) (consensus n/a) (prior -50.7%)
>US ADP Employment Nov: actual -169K(forecast -175K) (consensus -150K) (prior -203K)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 02 December 2009 -

...the SPX 500 penetraded the Nov 16 Peak *1114 but lack of follow-through set the market up for south bound possibly as far down as the Nov 6 Peak *1071
...a successful defense of *1071 would set the market up for another rally targeting the 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 Break *1122 or further up, the May/June/August/September/October trendline resistance *1148
...considering the lingering negative divergences (large caps out in front of small caps, dwindling market breadth, lower top in liquidity inflows, low volumes, etc), risk versus reward on new long positions, in a market overvalued by 40%, appears unsatisfactory and above mentioned resistance levels could be ceiling targets from where a deeper correction down to the *900 level seems likely

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 02 December 2009 - ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

...quick and easy: building 'shorts' on the SPX 500 starting *1122 -upside stop above *1169.9-


...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

http://i50.tinypic.com/2uxwh13.jpg


> before market open:current position update: 'short tilt' SPX 500 short - Russ2000 long

http://i50.tinypic.com/29by3pe.jpg


>after Market opencurrent position update: unchanged


Market Commentary -data point 02 December 2009-

John P. Hussman: Reckless Myopia http://www.hussman.net/ …Andrew Smithers, one of the few other analysts who foresaw the credit implosion and remains a credible voice now, concurred last week in an interview with my friend Kate Welling (a former Barrons’ editor now at Weeden & Company): “The good news so far is that the stock market got down to pretty much fair value or even, possibly, a tickle below it, at its March bottom. But now it has gone up… we probably have a market which is, roughly, 40% overpriced. In order to assess value, it is necessary either to calculate the level at which the EPS would be if profits were neither depressed nor elevated, or to use a metric of value which does not depend on profits. The cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) normalizes EPS by averaging them over 10 years. It thus follows the first of those two possible methods. Using even longer time periods has advantages, particularly as EPS have been exceptionally volatile in recent years – and using longer time periods raises the current measured degree of overvaluation. The other methodology we use measures stock market value without reference to profits: the q ratio. It compares the market capitalization of companies with their net worth, also adjusted to current prices. The validity of both of these approaches can be tested and is robust under testing – and they produce results that agree. Currently, both q and CAPE are saying that the U.S. stock market is about 40% overvalued.”...

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

arco
03-12-2009, 10:27 AM
.
Action is struggling at the red resistance line. As we have seen a lower low perhaps we could see a test of that red line to pick up orders stacked on the other side and then maybe a reverse.


http://i49.tinypic.com/2vsent0.gif

So far, so good

http://i49.tinypic.com/295u9f4.gif

ananda77
03-12-2009, 09:54 PM
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 03 December 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i48.tinypic.com/sl3245.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 02 December 2009-


http://i47.tinypic.com/29dhkr7.jpg ...testing support of upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 02 December 2009-



...Institutional Core Holdings - closed higher while holding above its blue support line and closing slightly above the Oct. 7 2008 support level-
...Institutional selling action daily -Institutional Selling trend lines positive bias-
...Institutional Index daily -divergence: strength trending down, while Institutional "core holdings" index moving sideways >late in the move and high risk levels-
...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -uptick -lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding

US Economic Calendar -data point 03 December 2009 -

>US Initial Claims 11/28: actual----(forecast 500K) (consensus 480K) (prior 466K)
>US Continuing Claims 11/21: actual----(forecast 5550K) (consensus 5400K) (prior 5423K)
>US Productivity-Rev. Q3: actual----(forecast 8.5%) (consensus 8.5%) (prior 9.5%)
>US Employment Cost Index Q3: actual----(forecast 0.4%) (consensus n/a) (prior 0.4%)
>US ISM Services Nov: actual----(forecast 50.7) (consensus 51.5) (prior 50.6)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 03 December 2009 -



SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 03 December 2009 - ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

CBOE Equity Volume and Put/Call Ratios: consistent with market tops



...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

http://i50.tinypic.com/jihoy0.jpg


> before market open:current position update: 'short tilt' SPX 500 short - Russ2000 long -downside stops-




>after Market opencurrent position update:

Market Commentary -data point 03 December 2009-

VoxEU: Charting The Great World Trade Collapse http://www.zerohedge.com/article/charting-great-world-trade-collapse ...The major debate in the economic community right now is whether the temporary fixes will be sufficient to get the consumer out of hiding. Yet with wage deflation and unemployment still surging, the likelihood of a favorable outcome grows dimmer by the month. And with systemic shocks like Dubai threatening to destabilize the fragile state of the world economy as we saw so vividly last week, a global economy priced to perfection may be just taking the policy of "hope" one step too far...

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
04-12-2009, 07:13 AM
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 03 December 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i48.tinypic.com/sl3245.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 02 December 2009-


http://i47.tinypic.com/29dhkr7.jpg http://i46.tinypic.com/5aev07.jpg ...testing support of upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 02 December 2009-


http://i50.tinypic.com/2yvs0np.jpg...Institutional Core Holdings - closed lower while holding above its blue support line and closing slightly above the Oct. 7 2008 support level-
http://i50.tinypic.com/4vmvd3.jpg...Institutional selling action daily -Institutional Selling trend lines positive bias but it is retail driving markets higher at present-
http://i45.tinypic.com/2eujurp.jpg...Institutional Index daily -divergence: strength trending down, while Institutional "core holdings" index moving sideways >late in the move and high risk levels-
http://i45.tinypic.com/30xipsl.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -uptick -lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding

US Economic Calendar -data point 03 December 2009 -

>US Initial Claims 11/28: actual 457K (forecast 500K) (consensus 480K) (prior 466K)
>US Continuing Claims 11/21: actual 4565K (forecast 5550K) (consensus 5400K) (prior 5423K)
>US Productivity-Rev. Q3: actual 8.1% (forecast 8.5%) (consensus 8.5%) (prior 9.5%)
>US ISM Services Nov: actual 48.7 (forecast 50.7) (consensus 51.5) (prior 50.6)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 03 December 2009 -

...market internals neutral as the SPX 500 consolidates below today's intraday High *1117 and further upside to briefly test *1122/(??*1148??) seems likely but
...intermarket non-confirmations of yesterday's new High in the Dow by
-Russ2000, Nasdaq 100, SPX 400 mid-cap
-SPX 500's financial, consumer discretionary, energy, and consumer staples sectors continue the large caps versus small caps theme of weakening markets

Bob Farrell’s Rule #7:
“Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue chip names.”

... failure between *1117/*1122 should spark a brief shakeout back to affirm the Nov 6 Peak *1071 for the markets to gather enough strength for another advance into end of quarter 30 December 2009 option expiry with *1122/*1145 as potential ceiling targets

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 03 December 2009 - ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

http://i50.tinypic.com/jihoy0.jpg


> before market open:current position update: 'short tilt' SPX 500 short - Russ2000 long -downside stops-

http://i50.tinypic.com/2yv56s2.jpg


>after Market opencurrent position update: unchanged

Market Commentary -data point 03 December 2009-

VoxEU: Charting The Great World Trade Collapse http://www.zerohedge.com/article/charting-great-world-trade-collapse ...The major debate in the economic community right now is whether the temporary fixes will be sufficient to get the consumer out of hiding. Yet with wage deflation and unemployment still surging, the likelihood of a favorable outcome grows dimmer by the month. And with systemic shocks like Dubai threatening to destabilize the fragile state of the world economy as we saw so vividly last week, a global economy priced to perfection may be just taking the policy of "hope" one step too far...

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

arco
04-12-2009, 09:03 AM
.
Action is struggling at the red resistance line. As we have seen a lower low perhaps we could see a test of that red line to pick up orders stacked on the other side and then maybe a reverse.


http://i49.tinypic.com/2vsent0.gif

I like it when a plan comes together :)

http://i49.tinypic.com/nyiddt.gif

peat
04-12-2009, 09:17 AM
how far do you think it will go Arco, and will you start blogging on the SP500 or will lincoln stick to purely fx?

ananda77
05-12-2009, 07:42 AM
...the daily pattern of market 'Cat and Mouse' continues, this time the SPX 500 spiking into a new year High *1119 and selling off, the cat too tired to take out the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 Break *1122
...currently, market internals run neutral as first line support *1097 undergoes testing; if taken out, further short term potential downside would include the Nov 6 High *1071;
...a successful defense of *1071 would motivate the market to another advance to attempt to take out *1122 and further up, the September/ October High upper trendline resistance *1145 which could act as the final ceiling targets for a deeper correction down to the *900 level
...first indication that a deeper sell-off is in progress would be the penetration and fall of the 27 Nov Low *1066

current position update: unchanged 'short tilt' -downside stops-

Phaedrus
05-12-2009, 11:04 AM
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP125.gif

arco
05-12-2009, 02:19 PM
how far do you think it will go Arco, and will you start blogging on the SP500 or will lincoln stick to purely fx?

Hi Peat, probably transfer it over to the blog as there seems to be some interest.
Hugh bearish engulf on the 4h so not looking too healthy right now, and if that was a 3 Drives to a Top its rare but usually quite productive

ananda77
08-12-2009, 07:09 AM
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 07 December 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i47.tinypic.com/2ir8yop.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 04 December 2009-


http://i46.tinypic.com/2uqek9w.jpg http://i50.tinypic.com/2r43cyr.jpg ...testing support of upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com: Technical Market Analysis -data point 04 December 2009-


http://i50.tinypic.com/2lw3s6e.jpg ...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding
http://i45.tinypic.com/hvzeqa.jpg ...Institutional Buy/Sell Spread -low accumulation-http://i46.tinypic.com/28k0mc8.jpg ...Institutional Selling Action -selling trendlines close to merging-

US Economic Calendar -data point 07 December 2009 -

>US Consumer Credit Oct: actual---- (forecast -11.6B) (consensus -9.3B) (prior -14.8B)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 07 December 2009 -

...the SPX 500 seems consolidating below December 4 High *1119 ahead of the overhead resistance range *1122 /*1145
...this consolidation could be the prepare for another stab higher but today's market direction appears decidedly bearish indicating that after supporting Fridays Close *1105, institutions are keeping a lid on buying while just selling enough for the retail investor to keep the market humming along
...as a result, the market still looks vulnerable for a brief dive to test *1071 in the short term

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 07 December 2009 - ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

...rare back-to-back outside days http://i47.tinypic.com/2ilhhqx.jpg Thursday, Friday on the SPX 500 -historically leads to bullish outcomes-
...US Russ2000 outperforming larger caps Friday 'possibly' indicating increasing market strength
...a Close below trading range would counteract bullish sentiment, but basically looks like the market will want to seriously test *1122/*1145 range in the short term


...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

http://i50.tinypic.com/2qas0fr.jpg


> before market open:current position update: Cash -downside stops-

http://i48.tinypic.com/29zy1sl.jpg


>after Market opencurrent position update: unchanged

Market Commentary -data point 07 December 2009-

Joseph E.Gagnon (Peterson Institute for International Economics): The World Needs Further Monetary Ease, Not an Early Exit http://www.arpllp.com/core_files/The%20World%20Needs%20Further%20Easing%201209.pdf ...Altogether then, either monetary or fiscal stimulus would help to attain more satisfactory outcomes for economic activity, employment, and inflation than those envisaged by the main economic forecasts. Monetary stimulus has the added advantage of also reducing net public debt, whereas fiscal stimulus increases net debt. In total, central banks in the four main developed economies should buy an additional $6 trillion in longer-term debt securities, which is expected to reduce 10-year bond yields around 75 basis points.

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
09-12-2009, 06:40 AM
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 08 December 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i47.tinypic.com/15zqlar.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 07 December 2009-


http://i46.tinypic.com/2uqek9w.jpghttp://i48.tinypic.com/28bb3gy.jpg ...past upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com: Technical Market Analysis -data point 07 December 2009-


http://i48.tinypic.com/2q9w5mr.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding
http://i49.tinypic.com/200tlk7.jpg...Institutional Buy/Sell Spread -low accumulation-
http://i47.tinypic.com/2rc6hsg.jpg...Institutional Selling Action -selling trendlines close to merging-

US Economic Calendar -data point 07 December 2009 -

>US Wholesale Inventories Oct: actual---- (forecast -0.8%) (consensus -0.5%) (prior -0.9%)
>US Crude Inventories12/04: actual----(forecast n/a) (consensus n/a) (prior 2.09M)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 08 December 2009 -

...as expected, the SPX 500 extending its retreat from Dec 4 High 1119 possibly as far as the Nov 6 High *1071
...a successful defense should set the tone for another advance targeting *1122/*1145 into 30 Dec 09 quarter option expiry
...failing *1071 would signal a much deeper sell-off towards the Nov Low *1029 or the Oct Low *1020 initially

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 08 December 2009 - ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

...due to insufficient volume, market direction turned even more bearish by day end but so far, there has neither been enough buying power nor enough selling pressure to swing the market decidedly;
...considering seasonality, the market may want to finish trading on a High note towards year end
...as a result, the *1122/*1145 range remains likley year end targets although volatility could increase short term as the market is vulnarable for a brief test of the *1071/*1083/*1090 range firther down

...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

http://i48.tinypic.com/34xs3nr.jpg


> before market open:current position update: Cash -downside stops-

http://i46.tinypic.com/m7tb4.jpg


>after Market opencurrent position update: -stopped in -covered after trading profitable intermarket divergence -Cash/downside stops

Market Commentary -data point 07 December 2009-

John P Hussman: Hussman: 80 Percent Chance of Market Crash Next Year http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/hussman-80-percent-chance-of-market-crash-next-year/

Moody's: The First Shot Across The Bow At Aaa-Rated US And UK ...while Moody's will never go ahead and directly downgrade the U.S. for fear of the mutually assured apocalypse such an action would create (or so Blankfein and Bernanke tell us), an exhaustive read of this report indicates that Moody's thinks the U.S. and the U.K. deserve to be anything but AAA http://www.zerohedge.com/article/first-shot-across-bow-aaa-rated-us-and-uk

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

arco
09-12-2009, 01:41 PM
Still moving to plan on the Purple Track

http://i45.tinypic.com/a47eyx.gif

rgds - arco

ananda77
10-12-2009, 06:38 AM
Still moving to plan on the Purple Track

http://i45.tinypic.com/a47eyx.gif

rgds - arco -Thanks Arco-

http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 09 December 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i48.tinypic.com/fz28g0.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 08 December 2009-


http://i46.tinypic.com/2uqek9w.jpg http://i50.tinypic.com/2regqvr.jpg...past upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com: Technical Market Analysis -data point 08 December 2009-

[center]http://i49.tinypic.com/2py6asx.jpg...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding
http://i45.tinypic.com/iyhcvp.jpg...Institutional Buy/Sell Spread -low accumulation-
http://i49.tinypic.com/2954pwy.jpg...Institutional Selling Action -selling trendlines negative upside crossover-

US Economic Calendar -data point 09 December 2009 -

>US Initial Claims 12/05 : actual---- (forecast 450K) (consensus 465K) (prior 457K)
>US Continuing Claims 12/04: actual---- (forecast 5475K) (consensus 5435K) (prior 5465K)
>US Trade Balance Oct: actual---- (forecast -35.0B) (consensus -37.0B) (prior -36.5B)
>US Treasury Budget Nov: actual---- (forecast -135.0B) (consensus -134.1B) (prior -176.4B)
>US MBA Mortgage Applications: actual 8.5% ; Refis +11.1%; Purchase Index +4.0%

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 09 December 2009 -

...market internals mostly neutral and SPX 500 trading holding above Nov 30 *Low *1085 undecidedly, possibly waiting for economic data as the trigger for direction
...the USD index shows signs of short term weakness
...at this stage it is too early to be definite for market direction

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 09 December 2009 - ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

...a bearish trading day on higher volume with some surprises as positive tick buying power kicked in throughout the day indicating two-sided trading
...trading in the SPX 500 stayed just above the low end of the range and it is likely that further action will test the bottom, possibly diving to *1081 intraday
...the US Russ2000 still leads the way indicating the bullish case is by no means lost for now

...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

http://i47.tinypic.com/2nbvip2.jpg


> before market open:current position update: Cash -downside stops-

http://i46.tinypic.com/2rqm52s.jpg


>after Market opencurrent position update: unchanged

Market Commentary -data point 09 December 2009-

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Ten Investment Themes For 2010 http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/12/ten-investment-themes-for-2010.html ...feel that next year will be "a genuine watershed" in that it will reveal whether or not this 'recovery' is real or whether the fundamentally drawn out weakness typically associated with bear markets will rear its ugly head...

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
10-12-2009, 06:52 PM
Still moving to plan on the Purple Track

http://i45.tinypic.com/a47eyx.gif

rgds - arco -Thanks Arco-

http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 10 December 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i48.tinypic.com/de692e.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 09 December 2009-


http://i46.tinypic.com/2uqek9w.jpg ...past upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com: Technical Market Analysis -data point 09 December 2009-

[center]...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding
...Institutional Buy/Sell Spread -low accumulation-
...Institutional Selling Action -selling trendlines negative upside crossover-

US Economic Calendar -data point 10 December 2009 -

>US Initial Claims 12/05 : actual---- (forecast 450K) (consensus 465K) (prior 457K)
>US Continuing Claims 12/04: actual---- (forecast 5475K) (consensus 5435K) (prior 5465K)
>US Trade Balance Oct: actual---- (forecast -35.0B) (consensus -37.0B) (prior -36.5B)
>US Treasury Budget Nov: actual---- (forecast -135.0B) (consensus -134.1B) (prior -176.4B)


Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 10 December 2009 -



SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 10 December 2009 - ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

... another low volume bearish day with subdued buying towards day end; the next down target is the 50-day MA *1078 and further down the gap from the Nov 6 Close *1069.3 and Nov 9 Open *1072.3
...although the index remains in an uptrend down to the Nov 2 Low *1030, trading below the 50-day MA to fill the gap would be 'yellow zone' for bullish sentiment
...considering the short time span to the Dec 30 quarter end option expiry, it would be essential for the bulls to hold *1071 for the long awaited test of the 50% retrace of the 2007/2009 Break *1122 and the September/October 2009 upper resistance line *1142 to go ahead before year end

...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

http://i46.tinypic.com/24vmf0i.jpg


> before market open:current position update: 'short tilt'




>after Market opencurrent position update:


Market Commentary -data point 10 December 2009-


Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
11-12-2009, 08:42 AM
...connection problems tonight

...the x-mas rally in the SPX 500 appears now underway after the index successfully defended *1084
...next target is the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 Break *1122 and further up, the September/October upper resistance line *1142 and further up, the BLOW-OFF Territory

Kind Regards

ananda77
12-12-2009, 05:56 AM
Still moving to plan on the Purple Track

http://i45.tinypic.com/a47eyx.gif

rgds - arco -Thanks Arco-

http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 11 December 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i50.tinypic.com/2aev2wm.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 10 December 2009-


http://i46.tinypic.com/2uqek9w.jpg http://i46.tinypic.com/650i6f.jpg...past upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com: Technical Market Analysis -data point 10 December 2009-

[center].http://i47.tinypic.com/vdz5o2.jpg..Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding
http://i48.tinypic.com/svo2lt.jpg...Institutional Buy/Sell Spread -low accumulation-
http://i49.tinypic.com/1z4e8a1.jpg...Institutional Selling Action -selling trendlines negative upside crossover-

US Economic Calendar -data point 11 December 2009 -

>US Retail Sales Nov: actual 1.3% (forecast 1.0%) (consensus 0.6%) (prior 1.4%)
>US ex Auto Nov: actual 1.2% (forecast 0.2%) (consensus 0.4%) (prior 0.2%)
>US Mich Sentiment Prel Dec: actual 73.4 (forecast 69.7) (consensus 68.8) (prior 67.4)
>US Business Inventories Oct: actual 0.2% (forecast 0.2%) (consensus -0.2%) (prior -0.4%)


Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 11 December 2009 -

...the SPX 500 rally stalled below *1110 and may want to confirm the Dec Low *1099 as a short term support before heading higher again
...failure in that level would keep the index range bound but eventually a break-out one way or another is going to happen soon


SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 11 December 2009 - ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

...the SPX 500 breaking above range *1110 would be bullish and the market should surge higher at least to test *1122/*1145 (+)
...on the downside, breaking *1083 would be bearish indicating the market will go for the *900 level
...considering current divergences, the market could still be breaking down from current levels

...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

http://i46.tinypic.com/10ekidk.jpg


> before market open:current position update: 'short tilt'

http://i50.tinypic.com/33ne22q.jpg


>after Market opencurrent position update:unchanged


Market Commentary -data point 10 December 2009-

Merryl Lynch: Hedge Fund Exposure Levels: Still Very Long Equities http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/12/hedge-fund-exposure-levels-still-very.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MarketFolly+%28Market+Folly%2 9

SocGen: Focusing On (And Profiting From) The Upcoming Chinese Financial Crisis http://www.zerohedge.com/article/focusing-and-profiting-upcoming-chinese-financial-crisis ...Mr. Grice's conclusion: buy if you must, but wait for the credit bubble pop. This in itself should be so self-evident, especially in light of last year's events, yet so many speculators are glued to the buy button that the Chinese implosion will certainly not end pretty...


Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
14-12-2009, 07:22 PM
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 14 December 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

http://i46.tinypic.com/2rzyond.jpg

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 11 December 2009-


http://i50.tinypic.com/2w688z9.jpghttp://i50.tinypic.com/2jcea7t.jpg...testing the 50% retracement with negative divergent strength http://i46.tinypic.com/1zxs7sw.jpg

http://stocktiming.com: Technical Market Analysis -data point 11 December 2009-


http://i47.tinypic.com/t9gj05.jpg..Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding
http://i48.tinypic.com/2i8ae54.jpg...Institutional Buy/Sell Spread -low accumulation-
http://i47.tinypic.com/spvimd.jpg...Institutional Selling Action -selling trendlines negative upside x-over loosing some steam-

US Economic Calendar -data point 14 December 2009 -

>US: actual---- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>US: actual---- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>US: actual---- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>US: actual---- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)


Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 14 December 2009 -

...a SPX 500 crawling slowly higher from Friday's Close *1106; the short term target for this weeks trading is likely to be the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 Break *1122 and by x-mas *1049 via *1028

...and that's it for me for 2009; it's been a good year; - ALL THE BEST FOR 2010-

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 14 December 2009 - ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

...maybe not today, but the USD http://i47.tinypic.com/2h5419y.jpg likely to test upper resistance 77 (+) in the near future; no economic data as well -a perfect Monday for a higher SPX 500-
...Friday's trading featured the traditional low volume, the A_D Line daily below the Oct/Nov High (weekly below Nov High http://i48.tinypic.com/ojf3wg.jpg), neutral tick buying power, and institutional buying muted above current trading range
...SPX 500 futures up strongly


...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

http://i50.tinypic.com/1zejsjo.jpg


> before market open:current position update: short *1117; http://i50.tinypic.com/33lovwx.jpg...institutional selling action; now covered -Cash/ downside stops

http://i45.tinypic.com/29b1son.jpg


>after Market opencurrent position update: Cash for the season


Market Commentary -data point 14 December 2009-

Paul Volcker: America Must 'Reassert Stability and Leadership' http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,666757,00.html ...If we don't make that adjustment and if we again pump up consumption, we will just walk into another crisis....

Jim Rogers: The Rogers Retort: When Everyone Is On One Side Of The Boat, Invariably Run To The Other Side... And Buy Gold http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rogers-retort-when-everyone-one-side-boat-invariably-run-other-side-and-buy-gold ...video...


Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

Phaedrus
15-12-2009, 11:13 AM
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP1215.gif

beacon
16-12-2009, 11:45 AM
- ALL THE BEST FOR 2010-[/b]



great consistent work. much appreciated.

Also thanks to Phaedrus for his beamer - in the chart.

Also to Hoop, arco and all who contributed here. Great work people. have a restful break.

Phaedrus
20-12-2009, 08:42 PM
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP1220.gif

Phaedrus
04-01-2010, 08:54 AM
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP14.gif
Aren't you glad you got in?
Aren't you glad you stayed in?

airedale
04-01-2010, 04:22 PM
I have posted this...NOT...because I endorse Mike Swanson's product, But there is a good historical look back at the markets and his thought on a sideways trend this year.

http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/reports/2010stockmarketreport.pdf

So just look past the marketing and see where the year MIGHT go.

ananda77
05-01-2010, 08:54 PM
A SUCCESSFUL NEW YEAR TO YOU ALL

www.invetrics.com:


http://i50.tinypic.com/2ngg1gi.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com:

issues (30 - 50)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 28 December 2009-

Trader Update -data point 04 January 2010:

...SPX 500 bullish opening of new trading year to new 15-month High *1134; NYSE market breadth 25:6 positive, Nasdaq 22:6 positive bodes well for further gains to test upper channel resistance *1145/*1150 near term; >*1170 anyone??<
...failure in that range would invite a corrective move back to the 50-day MA initially, with further possible downside to test August/September/October Lows trend line *1073

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
06-01-2010, 06:22 AM
A SUCCESSFUL NEW YEAR TO YOU ALL

www.invetrics.com:


http://i50.tinypic.com/2ngg1gi.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com:

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 05 January 2010:

...SPX 500 setting a new 15 month High *1136 and down ticking slightly at present; the market remains supported but could affirm *1123/*1126 congestion before heading higher to test upper channel resistance *1145/*1150 near term; >*1170 anyone??<
...failure in that range would invite a corrective move back to the 50-day MA initially, with further possible downside to test August/September/October Lows trend line *1073

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

tricha
06-01-2010, 06:24 AM
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/12-dr-dooms-shred-2010-investing-optimism-2010-01-05

Paul B. Farrell
http://i.mktw.net/_newsimages/columnists/farrell_paul.jpg Jan. 5, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EST · Recommend (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/12-dr-dooms-shred-2010-investing-optimism-2010-01-05#) (22) · Post: http://i.mktw.net/MW5/content/Story/Images/icon-facebook.gif (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/12-dr-dooms-shred-2010-investing-optimism-2010-01-05#) http://i.mktw.net/MW5/content/Story/Images/icon-twitter.gif (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/12-dr-dooms-shred-2010-investing-optimism-2010-01-05#)
Optimist? Or pessimist? Test your 2010 strategy!

12 'Dr. Dooms' warn Wall Street's optimism misleads, will trigger new crash


View all Paul B. Farrell › (http://www.marketwatch.com/search?mode=Column&rpp=15&modeparam=Paul B. Farrell&companymatch=false&beforedate=false&rs=true)
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Story Comments Screener (183) (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/12-dr-dooms-shred-2010-investing-optimism-2010-01-05/comments)


Alert (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/alerts/newsColumn.asp?selectedType=3&column=Paul B. Farrell) Email (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story_email.asp?guid={83A47014-F716-45BB-A115-25E342A73B62}&dist=emailMidSection) Print (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=83A47014-F716-45BB-A115-25E342A73B62) By Paul B. Farrell (PaulBFarrell@charter.net), MarketWatch
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Test time: A neuroeconomic peek inside your brain's new strategy as we enter the "Doomsday Decade" and leave behind the "Lost Decade" ("lost" because the Dow dropped from 11,497 to 10,428 in 10 years, while Wall Street got rich wiping out almost 10% of your retirement funds). Test your 2010 strategy. Are you an ...

Optimist? As the new decade starts, are you an optimist who trusts Wall Street's advice that 2010 will be a great time to buy stocks. Wall Street says the "Lost Decade" (what a great title) is now behind us. So you believe that the 60% market rally since the March 2009 bottom will continue, with at least 20% gains in 2010.
Pessimist? Or, you're distrustful, cynical and pessimistic about all predictions made by Wall Street's bosses and pundits. You're particularly skeptical of any and all forecasts by the "too-greedy-to-fail" bankers who stole trillions from taxpayers, the Fed and Treasury, then failed to stimulate the economy and now pocket mega-bailout bucks as record bonuses, just one year after we saved Wall Street from near bankruptcy.
This is a simple test of your mindset. Betting odds say most of you will pick answer "1." Why? America was founded by optimists. You believe that a "happy conspiracy" binds politicians, CEOs and Wall Street, making capitalism work and America a powerful nation: So you accept Wall Street's greed, lies and thievery as the price of "free-market capitalism," and part of America's DNA. You embrace "capitalism-without-morals."
What year will 2010 look like?

The bulls see the market mimicking 1983, the bears point to 1931. Those in the middle see many similarities with 2004. Barron's Michael Santoli reports.

Unfortunately, optimism also blinds us to our individual and national faults: Hidden saboteurs tell us we know more than we do, have amazing skills we don't, and are protected by divine forces against dark enemies and even our own irrational stupidity. Yes, optimism is our inner enemy that periodically triggers trillion-dollar meltdowns.
New strategy: 'Getting back to even' means new risks, more debt

True optimists are gung-ho about the future, expecting to recover losses and, as CNBC television host Jim Cramer preaches, "get back to even" in 2010. But the problem is no one has a clue if the market will ever "get back to even."
Quite the opposite, since Fed chief Ben Bernanke is pushing the same optimistic cheap-money fantasies that his predecessor Alan Greenspan used to create the dot-com and the subprime crashes. We can expect to see the next bubble fizzle and pop, pushing us deep into the dreaded Great Depression 2 that the Fed and Treasury are trying to avoid by downstreaming today's problems onto future generations.
But soon future generations will start screaming: "The buck stops here" and revolt when the buck isn't worth much, and they've lost faith in the dollar (just like China). Then the game of musical chairs will end, tragically, sadly, stupidly, unfortunately. Why? Because we failed to stop short of total disaster, failed to prepare, and it's too late.
So to all you optimists who plan to actively invest in 2010 because you accept that America's "capitalism-without-morals" is working in spite of Wall Street's quasi-criminal behavior: Here's some dark-side input to factor into your investment equation for 2010 and beyond.
Listen closely to the words of our 12 "Dr. Dooms." For a moment, take off your rose-colored glasses, step out of your denial, see the Great Depression 2 dead ahead, really look at the future our "Dr. Dooms" see in their "Doomsday Scenarios:"
1. Faber: The 'American Empire' has peaked, is on a decline

Hong Kong economist Marc Faber says "the average life span of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years ... Once a society becomes successful it becomes arrogant, righteous, overconfident, corrupt, and decadent ... overspends ... costly wars ... wealth inequity and social tensions increase; and society enters a secular decline."
2. Grantham: Learned nothing, doomed to repeat past, only bigger

Money manager Jeremy Grantham warns that our irrational nightmare will repeat. A year ago we came dangerously close to the "Great Depression 2." Unfortunately, we've "learned nothing ... condemning ourselves to another serious financial crisis in the not too-distant future."
We had our bear-market rally. Next, historical cycles plus our irrational behavior guarantees another, bigger global meltdown. We "learned nothing."
3. Stiglitz: Wall Street creating short respite before next crash

Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz recently warned: Unless Wall Street's incentive system is drastically reformed, "the financial sector will only try to circumvent whatever new regulations we put in place. We will simply have a short respite before the next crisis." Warning, nothing's changed, it's worse: Lobbyists run Obama, Congress and the Fed.

ananda77
06-01-2010, 10:39 AM
tricha:

...SPX 500 is currently discounting a US 2010 recovery with GDP expectations of 5%

-totally out of line with global (world) real GDP expectations of 3.5%
-US real GDP expectations of 2.3%

...but unless the real numbers are starting to hit, market action will be based around the delusional numbers; you only have to go back to 2007 to find out how this numbers game played out in the end but in the meantime, reality does not make good friends with market timing

Kind Regards

tricha
06-01-2010, 10:18 PM
tricha:

...SPX 500 is currently discounting a US 2010 recovery with GDP expectations of 5%

-totally out of line with global (world) real GDP expectations of 3.5%
-US real GDP expectations of 2.3%

...but unless the real numbers are starting to hit, market action will be based around the delusional numbers; you only have to go back to 2007 to find out how this numbers game played out in the end but in the meantime, reality does not make good friends with market timing

Kind Regards

So Ananda, when do u think reality will kick in ?, I have one foot in the ASX and one out, having worked hard in 2009 to get back to before the crash started.
I do not want a repeat preformance.

Happy hunting.

ananda77
07-01-2010, 05:29 AM
Ananda, when do u think reality will kick in

...end of quarter reporting, earnings reports (expectations are for US$ 76)

www.invetrics.com:- data point 06 January 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/2ngg1gi.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 06 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 06 January 2010:

...SPX 500 nibbled higher to a new 15 month High *1138 and remains happy to consolidate with the January 5 Low *1130 as a likely base; the market remains supported to test upper channel resistance *1145/*1150 near term; >*1170 anyone??<
...failure in that range would invite a corrective move back to the 50-day MA initially, with further possible downside to test August/September/October Lows trend line *1073

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

Hoop
07-01-2010, 09:20 AM
The latest freebie from Marketwatch.

S&P 500 clears significant technical hurdle


The latest TA analysis report from "The Technical Indicator" (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-clears-major-technical-hurdle-2010-01-05?pagenumber=2)

Contains some simple TA charts

Quote:-
"......Still, this year's positive start marked a more significant technical event highlighted on the S&P 500's two-year chart: Monday's close at 1,133 marked the S&P's first legitimate close atop its 50% market-crash retracement of 1,121.
This technically signals a new bull market, and leaves the index with limited resistance until the 1,200 area,...."
.
.
.


Definition of Reality from Free online Directionary (http://www.thefreedictionary.com/reality)

reality [rɪˈælɪtɪ]n pl -ties
1. the state of things as they are or appear to be, rather than as one might wish them to be
2. something that is real
3. the state of being real
4. (Philosophy) Philosophya. that which exists, independent of human awareness
b. the totality of facts as they are independent of human awareness of them See also conceptualism (http://www.thefreedictionary.com/conceptualism) Compare appearance (http://www.thefreedictionary.com/appearance) [6]

in reality actually; in fact

ananda77
08-01-2010, 06:44 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 07 January 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/2ngg1gi.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 07 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 07 January 2010:

...SPX 500 sideways to higher, managing a new 15 month High *1139 ahead of Friday's payroll data; the market remains supported http://i45.tinypic.com/14bksbt.jpg to test upper channel resistance *1145/*1150 near term; >*1170 anyone??<, but until the jobs report will be out of the way, upticks remain somewhat subdued
...failure in that range would invite a corrective move back to the 50-day MA initially, with further possible downside to test August/September/October Lows trend line *1073

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
09-01-2010, 06:56 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 08 January 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/2ngg1gi.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 08 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 08 January 2010:

...after the payroll data release, SPX 500 appears to be consolidating just below yesterday's new 15 month High *1142 after modest selling pressure earlier on disappeared out of the market; the market remains supported http://i45.tinypic.com/2h6uesm.jpg above *1130 to test upper channel resistance *1145/*1150 near term; >*1170 anyone??<;
...failure in that range would invite a corrective move back to the 50-day MA initially, with further possible downside to test August/September/October Lows trend line *1073

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
12-01-2010, 06:38 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 011 January 2010


http://i46.tinypic.com/2ytsgex.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 11 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 011 January 2010:

...the SPX 500 opening strength quickly disappeared and the index traded into the red indicating that a short term top could be in place; Friday's institutional uptick in selling, the marginal, positive market breadth, and a variety of macro sentiment indicators (p/c-ratio, %stocks above the 50-day MA) were the first indications of the current weakness in the market
...risk now lingers for the market to slip further near term to test the 29 December Low *1124 initially with potential to reach for the 31 December Low *1014
...a successful defense in that range would motivate the market for a retest of today's High *1150 which could turn out a double top scenario from which a deeper correction would commence;
...if the double top set-up plays out, the corrective move would target the 50-day MA initially, with further possible downside to test August/September/October Lows trend line *1073

The SPX 500 Hedge:

...http://i46.tinypic.com/2r5stgy.jpgFriday's weakness and Monday's strong future's advance into the SPX 500 target area *1150 initiated a 'short bias' in the hedge to protect equity exposure (fully invested)

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

Phaedrus
12-01-2010, 09:12 AM
Stay in. (another new high!)

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP112.gif

ananda77
13-01-2010, 06:30 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 12 January 2010


http://i45.tinypic.com/2j69r48.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 12 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 12 January 2010:

...the SPX 500 has so far retreated to the December 29 Low *1132 and remains vulnerable for further slippage near term to test the 29 December Low *1124 next with potential to reach for the 31 December Low *1014 before rebounding
...a successful defense in that range would motivate the market for a retest of yesterday's High *1151 which could turn out a double top scenario from which a deeper correction would commence;
...if the double top set-up plays out, the corrective move would target the 50-day MA initially, with further possible downside to test August/September/October Lows trend line *1073

---SPX 500 on a normalized P/E basis is overvalued by 27% (Schiller)
---median P/E multiples 22.2
---yield on the SPX 500 below 2%

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
14-01-2010, 06:44 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 13 January 2010


http://i49.tinypic.com/2cp5mbl.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 13 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 13 January 2010:

...the SPX 500 successfully defended the December High *1132 and appears to recover http://i49.tinypic.com/10ib8fb.jpggathering strength for a second test of the January 11 High *1151 near term with potential to grope higher into the *1166/*1175 range

...a failure anywhere in that range in an impulsive sell-off would lead to a deeper retreat with the Aug/Sep/Oct Lows trendline support *1075 as a minimum target;

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
15-01-2010, 07:39 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 14 January 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/97vbd3.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 14 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 14 January 2010:

...the SPX 500 trading comfortably above *1137 the level broken to the upside yesterday on high volume, in what seems to become an inside day today; while the market awaits the Intel results, trading sentiment above *1137 remains bullish and the index is still poised for second test of the January 11 High *1151 near term with potential to grope higher into the *1166/*1175 range

...a failure anywhere in that range in an impulsive sell-off would lead to a deeper retreat with the Aug/Sep/Oct Lows trendline support *1075 as a minimum target;

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

peat
15-01-2010, 10:47 AM
1150 is the 1.618 % extension of the first rise since March.....

ananda77
16-01-2010, 06:59 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 15 January 2010


http://i45.tinypic.com/xpmrld.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 15 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 15 January 2010:

...today's impulsive sell-off suggests further downside to the Dec 31 Low *1114 if the 29 Dec High *1132 will be taken out on a Close basis

...the successful affirmation of the *1115 pivot level would motivate the market for a second test of the Jan 11 High *1151 with potential to reach the *1158/*1168 range by end of January

...failure of the *1115 pivot level on a Close basis would confirm a deeper correction is already underway targeting key trendline support of the Aug/Sep/Oct Lows *1,079 at a minimum with potential to reach *992 during Q1 before recovering

...it is Friday ahead of a US holiday weekend

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

arco
16-01-2010, 06:28 PM
Sorry everyone, bit late with this.
Posted on the blog on Wednesday

http://i49.tinypic.com/91f191.gif

Phaedrus
17-01-2010, 09:49 AM
Market over-reacting? Nah. At 0.87% Friday's "fall" was quite insignificant - just market noise.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/sp117.gif

Hoop
17-01-2010, 12:10 PM
Phaedrus Quote..."Market over-reacting? Nah. At 0.87% Friday's "fall" was quite insignificant - just market noise."

Exactly!!! ... We are currently experiencing a cyclic bull market cycle which shows no * signs of (early?**) demise. Rapid rises, Pauses, short term BM corrections, short/meduim term downtrends, medium term trading ranges are all to be expected within a bull cycle and any little blip brings out the worry beads...which makes for good speculation Media fodder and good topics for conversation for us investors.


Investmentwise...We should logically act on the "now" and be aware of possible future "maybes". In other words invest in what is real and happening now. Speculative investments are based on the "maybes" (not yet real) and should only be a proportional percentage based on the Portfolio strategy your adopt.

How many of us investors have adopted to stay out of the current market, or are investing the opposite way around without thinking about it by not fully realising that their investments are speculatively bought because they were acting on the "maybes" and wary of the "now"........ only to complain later of opportunities lost with the excuse of happenings which they did not expect...and posting (mostly to Phaedrus) complaining that his charts are all great in hindsight but...!!

.
* Plenty of forecasting doom maybes but no "now" data to confirm.



** A "Maybe" we should be aware of
...At what stage of the BM cycle are we in at the moment??

From a simple psychological point of view (Dow Theory)

Bull Market Phase 2? Do you agree?

StockCharts.com Chart School (http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:dow_theor y)



I consider P's charts to be an excellent "now" indicator and its Green...we at ST should be considered extremely fortunate to have this data available to us.

sharer
18-01-2010, 12:49 PM
...
I consider P's charts to be an excellent "now" indicator and its Green...we at ST should be considered extremely fortunate to have this data available to us.

Supporting your comments Hoop (by the way, your own analyses are also most interesting & educational). Phaedrus & his insights posted here are an absolute treasure.

ananda77
20-01-2010, 07:19 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 19 January 2010


http://i49.tinypic.com/6r7reo.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 19 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 19 January 2010:

...the SPX 500 closed at *1135 last Friday well within the current *1132/*1151 range; today, although futures dipped to *1127 in early trading, this level atrracted buyers pushing the index back into the range; throughout the opening hours, NYSE Tick buying power aggressively drove the index further towards the top end of the range *1151

...trading action could very well continue to push the index higher to take out *1151 with potential to reach *1159/*1161, but a range of negative volume divergences and a contracting new highs indicator warn of an imminent correction; however, a major market top remains unlikely at this stage as the contracting new highs are not accompanied with an expansion of new lows

...failure in the *1151/*1159/*1161 range on a Close basis would be followed by a sharp drop to the bottom of the trading range *1132 with potential to reach the Dec 2009 31 Low *1115 initially

The SPX 500 Hedge: http://i46.tinypic.com/28ckby8.jpgplanning to short the index in the *1151/*1160 range

...the trading universe offers juicy red and juicy black candle desserts...

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
21-01-2010, 06:51 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 120 January 2010


http://i47.tinypic.com/20zb9ci.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 20 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 20 January 2010:

...so far today, the expected SPX 500 plunge took the index below the Dec 29 identified support *1132 but has stabilized for now near *1130; risk lingers for the SPX 500 to stretch lower to test the Dec 31 Low *1114 near term , a pivot point, marking the confirmation point of the current rally leg;

...a successful defense of *1114 on a Close basis would motivate the market to re-test the Jan 11 High *1151 with potential to stretch higher into the *1156/*1168 range which could mark a formidable market top

...failing *1114 would indicate, the market is already undergoing a deeper correction down to the August/September/October Lows trendline *1079 at a minimum

...watch the VIX pattern for further clues http://i48.tinypic.com/35i8vp2.jpg

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
22-01-2010, 06:53 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 21 January 2010


http://i46.tinypic.com/1h4512.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 21 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 21 January 2010:

...so far today, the SPX 500 has extended the plunge down to *1114 as expected, which should act as near term support from which the index should move to its possibly final ascent before a major market top could be in place; cash started to flow into the market US Eastern 1:30pm

...a successful defense of *1114 on a Close basis would motivate the market to re-test the Jan 11 High *1151 with potential to stretch higher into the *1156/*1168 range which could mark a formidable market top

...failing *1114 would indicate, the market is already undergoing a deeper correction down to the August/September/October Lows trendline *1079 at a minimum

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

Dr_Who
22-01-2010, 09:35 AM
Is this just a blib or a start of a downtrend?

Anyone care to give us a forecast?

peat
22-01-2010, 10:18 AM
Prechter recommended maximum shorts one day after the 1152 high .... and although he'd been recommending some shorts since around the 1000-1100 level , at the 1150 level he said to give it the full hit short i,e increase to 200% of your speculative positions with a stop (for the extra shorts) at that high claiming the risk reward ratio was superb. He gave technical chart analysis etc focusing on the contracting triangle see arco's post #187, and the advance/decline ratio etc....
So it was a pretty well timed commentary. And if Arco and Precther say something then people should start to listen
I'm a fairly cautious speculator and also am reluctant to give away the ideas from his publications (which I pay for) so thats why I didnt say at the time... but I did post that fib extension (which he never mentioned) and proceeded to put positions in place.

Although Prechter is considered a permabear he did call that March bottom in late Feb , advising to cover shorts at that time.

2010 is looking interesting... dont others find it hard to swallow that the GFC can so easily be swept aside

evilroyrule
22-01-2010, 11:23 AM
given the better than expected growth out of china today (approx 9%) what is the likelihood of a bounce back!

Phaedrus
22-01-2010, 12:31 PM
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP122-1.gif

So far, this is a completely normal minor retracement.

winner69
22-01-2010, 12:44 PM
[IMG]
So far, this is a completely normal minor retracement.

You can't say that mate .... the VIX shot up 20% .... that is fear ... panic .... and all that ... but heck the VIX is stilldown at 22 and that signals very volatility

Yes ... only a minor retracement in a big picture .... but unfortunately stopped out a few today

Footsie
22-01-2010, 01:31 PM
I;d be surprised if the indicator stays green

sentiment seems to have changed.

ananda77
22-01-2010, 02:20 PM
...the SPX 500 closed at *1116, well within the Dec 31 Low *1114; unless the index violates *1114 on a Close basis, shorting the index now would be a high risk proposition with the *1114 support still in place; !!!all the down movement today happened at the Open and then the indexes held their positions thereafter!!!

...admittingly, the Dow should have stayed above *10423 on a Close basis but overshot, so there is a bit uncertainty in the equation

...the time to short the index was two days ago as mentioned in the daily updates;

Kind Regards

Corporate
22-01-2010, 02:24 PM
I've been reassessing my portfolio over the last couple of weeks and it coincides with fear I haven't seen in the market since the early/mid stages of the GFC. The combination of both of these means I've shed a bunch of companies that don't fit my criteria anylonger and were starting to become toxic.

I'm down to just three now.

Phaedrus
22-01-2010, 02:37 PM
The VIX is up 32% from its low. That's quite a jump but look at what happened last Oct/Nov. The VIX jumped 44% but the corresponding drop in the SP500 was a mere 5.6%. Not enough to even dent the ongoing uptrend.

The current 3% retracement could more than double and still leave a strong, healthy uptrend.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/VIX122.gif

winner69
22-01-2010, 02:48 PM
The VIX is up 32% from its low. That's quite a jump but look at what happened last Oct/Nov. The VIX jumped 44% but the corresponding drop in the SP500 was a mere 5.6%. Not enough to even dent the ongoing uptrend.

The current 3% retracement could more than double and still leave a strong, healthy uptrend.

Thats good Phaedrus .... looks we are safe for a while

The VIX at 22 implies a movenet in the S&P of +/-6% in the next 30 days .... heck only 6% ..... and note the PLUS or minus

winner69
22-01-2010, 02:56 PM
Couple on interesting charts on wikipedia, esp the left one

When the VIX is low, like at the moment, the S&P behaves quite well .... little probability of it it rising or falling by 6% (implied 1 std dev) in the next 30 days

But you never know .... its all down to probabilities eh ... but at the moment according to the VIX the odds are in our favour

arco
22-01-2010, 10:03 PM
Sorry everyone, bit late with this.
Posted on the blog on Wednesday

http://i49.tinypic.com/91f191.gif

UPDATE

http://i50.tinypic.com/2uopdlx.gif

ananda77
23-01-2010, 06:52 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 22 January 2010


http://i46.tinypic.com/vs18io.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 22 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-
under review -data point 22 January 2010-
issues 'liquidation' of long position recommendation before Close -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 22 January 2010:

...so far today, the SPX 500 has extended the plunge and violated the *1114 support decisively; the break of support in early trading signals now a deeper sell-off is most likely underway

...todays bounce off Dec 15 Low *1104 coincided wiith the institutional index closing the gaphttp://i47.tinypic.com/htsaog.jpgjust below the projected centerline support (hourly time frame) and breaking that support would confirm a deeper sell-off

...more bearish messages from the VIXhttp://i48.tinypic.com/ygw8p.jpgtrading now above its Aug 2008 support breaking through two bearish resistances yesterday

...in case of the deeper sell-off, the next down target features the Dec 18 Low *1093 from which a corrective bounce could be expected targeting the Jan *1129/*1143 congestion

...if trading fails to push above this ceiling, the next down leg would start with the Aug-Sep-Oct Lows *1079 as a likely minimum target with potential to reach down as far as the Oct 2008 Low *1020;

...at the same time, if not short since Jan 14 near the top *1149 and Cash today around the *1100 level, failure in the congestion range next week would be the 'next logical short trading set-up'

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

arco
23-01-2010, 09:16 AM
And the beat goes on..............

SP500 information is given free of charge on the blog

http://i50.tinypic.com/nmgf8w.gif

Phaedrus
23-01-2010, 09:36 AM
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/VIX123.gif

The sharp rise in the VIX continues - with the attendant drop in the SP500 causing it to go straight to magenta, skipping the usual intermediate "Caution" zone.

evilroyrule
24-01-2010, 02:08 PM
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP122-1.gif

So far, this is a completely normal minor retracement.

so what happened in the space of half a day? midday 22/01 its stay in and at close its sideline safest?

irrational fear.

Phaedrus
24-01-2010, 08:56 PM
So what happened in the space of half a day? The SP500 made an unusually large drop - 24.72 in fact.


Midday 22/01 its stay in and at close its sideline safest?'Fraid so Roy. Don't get too hung up on the nomenclature though - it's really just a question of thresholds. Had the SP500 dropped 24.21 or less the chart plot would have been blue denoting caution. I suspect you would have found this somewhat less of a shock. No point in shooting the messenger though, eh?


Irrational fear.Well, fear anyway.

You know how they say that a week is a long time in politics? Well, a day is a long time in the market.

evilroyrule
25-01-2010, 08:50 PM
why is it all so quiet after today? are we waiting to see what happens overnight? interesting times. heaven forbid if there is a bounce back tonight. wednesday cld be a humdinger!

Dr_Who
25-01-2010, 11:27 PM
Wall st set to bounce. Euro market in positive. Lets sleep on it and see in the morning.

Hope we all picked up some cheap stock these last few days. :)

Hoop
26-01-2010, 12:29 AM
evilroyrule quote...
"..why is it all so quiet after today?.."

shhhh...we don't want to upset those 3 nearly identical black crows.

However with a Wall St bull market correction overdue (see my earlier posts) there is no surprise to me that this rare bearish candlestick formation popped up to begin a possible correction....so the warning bells have sounded.

Still hoping for a bounce today which would make the situation better with the bulls back in control I mentioned a kicker as a quick reversal back up but this is too much to ask for especially if the environment is in a corrective phase...... pre-trade is seeing the S&P at +0.83% at this moment.

ananda77
26-01-2010, 06:50 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 25 January 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/2pqvzwl.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 25 January 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010

Trader Update -data point 25 January 2010:

...the institutional index of core holdings http://i46.tinypic.com/16k3wif.jpg has broken below its Aug-Sept-Oct trendline support and considering the state of the VIX http://i46.tinypic.com/fcpi61.jpg points to a more serious correction developing, but

...so far today, the SPX 500 managed to stay above Dec 18 Low *1093 and appears to consolidate in a likely move higher to challenge the *1129/*1142 congestion near term

...if trading fails to push above this ceiling, the next down leg would start with the Aug-Sep-Oct Lows *1079 as a likely minimum target with potential to reach down as far as the Oct 2008 Low *1020

...on the other hand, based on heavily oversold short term indicators, the current extreme bearish sentiment could very well mark the end of the whole decline confirmed with a Close above the Jan 15 High *1151

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

Edwood
26-01-2010, 03:42 PM
Afternoon - my first post over here at sharetrader :)

Dow selling off currently with CMC - down to 10104 a few minutes ago - decent gap down for the open, could be worth a fade

ananda77
27-01-2010, 06:52 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 26 January 2010


http://i48.tinypic.com/20a8ew6.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 26 January 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010

Trader Update -data point 26 January 2010:

...after yesterday's weak Close, the SPX 500 traded down to the *1084/*1090 range at the Open to find the stronger support needed for the current bounce

...the expected upside target features the *1115/*1119 range near term

...failure to break through the range on the upside would leave the market exposed to test the Nov 11 Low *1084/*1068 range

...on the other hand, based on heavily oversold short term indicators, the current extreme bearish sentiment could very well mark the end of the whole decline confirmed with a Close above the Jan 15 High *1151

The SPX 500 Hedge:

...tentatively indicating the *1084/*1090 Range support http://i45.tinypic.com/2v26q68.jpg as a starting point to a new rally leg with an initial upside target in the *1115/*1119 range

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

Dr_Who
27-01-2010, 09:07 AM
Wall St and Euro market holding up.

So far so good. :)

ananda77
28-01-2010, 06:21 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 27 January 2010


http://i46.tinypic.com/2d0cqkh.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 27 January 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010

Trader Update -data point 27 January 2010:

...like yesterday, the SPX 500 opened lower *1085 above the Nov 11 range *1084/*1068and holding despite downside pressure;

-today's bullish divergence between the SPX 500/Russell2000
-short term intra-day indicators are extremely oversold and
-the institutional index of core holdings http://i47.tinypic.com/23igzvc.jpg still trades with a major support broken but the higher highs/higher lows trend still intact and needs to make a lower high to complete a possible H&S formation to confirm further downside

...as a result, the index seems to be ready for an imminent oversold bounce with an expected upside target in the *1115/*1119 range near term

...failure to break through the range on the upside would leave the market exposed to test the Nov 11 Low *1084/*1068 range

...on the other hand, based on heavily oversold short term indicators, the current extreme bearish sentiment could very well mark the end of the whole decline confirmed with a Close above the Jan 15 High *1151

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

Phaedrus
28-01-2010, 09:38 AM
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP128b.gif

macduffy
28-01-2010, 06:28 PM
Thanks, Phaedrus.

Puts the "great sell-off" of the last few days into perspective, doesn't it!

:cool:

ananda77
29-01-2010, 05:32 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 28 January 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/v6nss6.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 28 January 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010

Trader Update -data point 28 January 2010:

...the SPX 500 could not sustain yesterday's bounce and has dived to a new Low *1078 in early trading so far; the market features trend uncertainty as signalled by today's outside day so far;

...the next likely target would take the index down to the Nov 27 Low *1068

...due to extremely oversold conditions as outlined in yesterday's update, if *1078/*1068 is supported successfully, a stronger oversold bounce should challenge the Jan 26 High *1104

...failure to break through *1104 would set the stage for a deeper sell-off with the Nov 6 Low *1057 as an initial target and potential to reach out to the Nov 2 Low *1020 as a possible floor

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
29-01-2010, 08:17 AM
Back to the 1085 level. Results from some of the big players today weren't that bad - once again it was the forcasting commentry that is freaking people out. Greece is providing a sideshow and Ben will be back in his seat tomorrow. Lot of noise at the moment and there seems to be a huge emphasis in the media to ensure the spin is negative. The brave (or foolhardy?) will be toping up at the expense of the fearful (sensible?).

...checking market breadth today the ratio roughly = 1:3 negative

(Hedge Funds Sell the S&P 500 & Commodities (Trend Monitor Report) http://www.marketfolly.com/2010/01/hedge-funds-sell-s-500-commodities.html

...maybe later will be a better time to top up

Kind Regards

Hoop
29-01-2010, 08:50 AM
Back to the 1085 level. Results from some of the big players today weren't that bad - once again it was the forcasting commentry that is freaking people out. Greece is providing a sideshow and Ben will be back in his seat tomorrow. Lot of noise at the moment and there seems to be a huge emphasis in the media to ensure the spin is negative. The brave (or foolhardy?) will be toping up at the expense of the fearful (sensible?).

Yes media is negative ..but they reflect the mood of the masses right or wrong.


A good strategy into entering into a correction involves using the risk V reward strategy (RVR)

The brave entering the market now ain't brave.... either they are impulsive (emotional with no discipline) or they're wimpy impatient RVR investors and are fearful that if they don't enter now they will miss out. The brave and perhaps stupid RVR investors are the buyers who hold off buying right up to the last moment, going as close as they can get to that line drawn in the sand before that wave comes in. (absolute minimum risk / absolute maximum reward)

For the average investor the line is the 1020-1030 area ... if this area is breached in a convincing fashion then the market switches primary trend and becomes down trending...a bearish area which puts the bull market under threat. The RVR investor using this line in their calulations will sell out here and take a small loss depending at what point they bought in.

As it is perceived by most investors we are in a bull market so this line area should hold...therefore the "who blinks first" situation occurs. As the line area becomes closer the RVR investors get increasingly pressured to buy.

peat
29-01-2010, 10:41 AM
Ichimoku would indicate kumo (cloud) support in this area

but (edit) I'm holding my shorts for now

Phaedrus
29-01-2010, 10:42 AM
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP129.gif

ananda77
30-01-2010, 06:34 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 29 January 2010


http://i46.tinypic.com/2cnyrk9.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 29 January 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010

Trader Update -data point 29 January 2010:

...another attempt of an oversold bounce from the *1074/*1078 range tonight which could climb as far as the Jan 26 High *1104; considering institutional action and the state of liquidity flowing into the markets http://i47.tinypic.com/2zdp2dd.jpg http://i48.tinypic.com/14tlr3c.jpg, it is doubtful, the market has posted a final Low yesterday;

...as a matter of interest, checking the internals, this morning's advance turned out to be quite tepid smelling of the absence of institutional action in terms of buying and selling; selling however, with support from institutions, started later with a much more determined approach to drive the market back towards the starting point at a minimum

...failure to break through *1104 would set the stage for a deeper sell-off with the Nov 6 Low *1057 as an initial target and potential to reach out to the Nov 2 Low *1020 as a possible floor

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
30-01-2010, 11:53 AM
Are we red now Phaedrus?

...guessing here, but if Phaeadrus's indicator is of any value, it most likely will not go red above the *1030/*1020 range...otherwise it just would not make any sense...

and the Weekend Drama Series continues>>>

-Battle Of The Titans - JPMorgan Vs Goldman Sachs Or Why The Market Was Down for 7 Days In A Row

By Ellen Brown (WebOfDebt.com) -data point 1-29-10-

Obama: ""We can't allow financial institutions, including those that take your deposits, to take risks that threaten the whole economy. The House has already passed financial reform with many of these changes. And the lobbyists are already trying to kill it. Well, we cannot let them win this fight. And if the bill that ends up on my desk does not meet the test of real reform, I will send it back"

Keiser's January 23 http://ia350642.us.archive.org/2/items/MaxKeiserRadio-TheTruth: "High frequency trading accounts for 70% of trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Ordinarily, a buyer and a seller show up on the floor, and a specialist determines the price of a trade that would satisfy buyer and seller, and that's the market price. If there are too many sellers and not enough buyers, the specialist lowers the price. High frequency trading as conducted by Goldman means that before the specialist buys and sells and makes that market, Goldman will electronically flood the specialist with thousands and thousands of trades to totally disrupt that process and essentially commandeer that process, for the benefit of siphoning off nickels and dimes for themselves. Not only are they siphoning cash from the New York Stock Exchange but they are also manipulating prices. What I see as a possibility is that next week, if the bankers on Wall Street decide they don't want to be reformed in any way, they simply set the high frequency trading algorithm to sell, creating a huge negative bias for the direction of stocks. And they'll basically crash the market, and it will be a standoff. The market was down three days in a row, which it hasn't been since last summer. It's a game of chicken, till Obama says, 'Okay, maybe we need to rethink this.'"
http://www.rense.com/general89/battle.htm

...wish a smaller version would be around in NZ to convince even the most stubborn car enthusiast that train travel is 'the only civilized form of continental transport' available; how long do we have to endure the NZ dinosaur type transport system until the government wakes up and stops all billion dollar subsidies which keep the traffic jungle alive and well


http://i49.tinypic.com/2s0e52s.jpg Travellers board a high-speed train which heads to Guangzhou in Wuhan, Hubei province, on Boxing Day; as a matter of fact, those type trains have run in Germany for donkey's years...

Kind Regards

ananda77
31-01-2010, 01:58 PM
1030/20 would be slightly below the last low back in Dec? ... Will we get there? ...

Macros suggest not (GDP surges 5.7pc to lift hopes for more jobs in US (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/gdp-surges-57pc-to-lift-hopes-for-more-jobs-in-us/story-e6frg926-1225824986990))

January 29, 2010 – LUNCH WITH DAVE

Lunch with Dave — The Houdini Recovery

The growth bulls are out in full force in the aftermath of the release of Q4 GDP in the U.S.
Real GDP came in at 5.7% QoQ annualized rate in Q4, but it was dominated by a huge inventory adjustment

First, the report was dominated by a huge inventory adjustment — not the onset of a new inventory cycle, but a transitory realignment of stocks to sales. Excluding the inventory contribution, GDP would have advanced at a much more tepid 2.2% QoQ annual rate, not really that much better than the soft 1.5% reading in the third quarter.

Second, it was a tad strange to have had inventories contribute half to the GDP tally, and at the same time see import growth cut in half last quarter. Normally, inventory adds are at least partly fuelled by purchases of foreign-made inputs. Not this time. Strip out inventories and the foreign trade sector, we see that domestic demand growth in the fourth quarter actually slowed to a paltry 1.7% annual rate from 2.3% in the third quarter. Some recovery. Based on some simulations we ran, demand growth with all the massive doses of fiscal and monetary stimulus should already be running in excess of a 10% annual rate. So, the real question that nobody seems to ask is why it is that underlying demand conditions are still so benign more than two years after the greatest stimulus of all time. The answer is that this epic credit collapse is a pervasive drain on spending and very likely has another five years to play out.

Third, if you believe the GDP data — remember, there are more revisions to come — then you de facto must be of the view that productivity growth is soaring at over a 6% annual rate. No doubt productivity is rising — just look at the never-ending slate of layoff announcements. But we came off a cycle with no technological advance and no capital deepening, so it is hard to believe that productivity at this time is growing at a pace that is four times the historical norm. Sorry, but we're not buyers of that view. In the fourth quarter, aggregate private hours worked contracted at a 0.5% annual rate and what we can tell you is that such a decline in labour input has never before, scanning over 50 years of data, coincided with a GDP headline this good. Normally, GDP growth is 1.7% when hours worked is this weak, and that is exactly the trend that was depicted this week in the release of the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which was widely ignored. On the flip side, when we have in the past seen GDP growth come in at or near a 5.7% annual rate, what is typical is that hours worked grows at a 3.7% rate. No matter how you slice it, the GDP number today represented not just a rare but an unprecedented event, and as such, we are willing to treat the report with an entire saltshaker — a few grains won’t do.

Fourth, while the Chicago PMI and the revision to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index also served up positive surprises, the “hard” data in terms of housing starts, home sales and consumer spending suggest that there is little, if any, momentum heading into early 2010. Moreover, the prospect that we see a discernible slowing in the pace of economic activity this quarter and a relapse in the second quarter is non trivial, in my view — by then, today's flashy headline will be a distant memory.
Remember, there are more revisions to come to this GDP report

----SPX 500 *870 would be more like a bargain tempting point to top up----

Kind Regards

ananda77
02-02-2010, 07:28 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 01 February 2010


http://i45.tinypic.com/24x2zox.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 01 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 01 February 2010:

...the SPX 500 is bouncing back from the Jan 29 Low *1072 and is heading up to challenge Friday's High *1097; short- to intermediate term indicators are extremely oversold http://i49.tinypic.com/2cs6w0o.jpg http://i47.tinypic.com/3517sr6.jpg but the institutional index of core holdings http://i50.tinypic.com/2vcxsoj.jpg broke its uptrend and continues heading south; additionally, longer term momentum indicators crossed over indicating further downside price pressure

...as a consequence, selling the rallies appears to be the correct strategy for now until market internals are set up to continue the March 09 bull trend

...based on A/D internals today, the current bounce is missing broad based support and the index could stall beneath *1097 for another dive to test the Nov 6 Low *1057 as a potential near term floor

...ultimately however, it is unlikely, that the market will be happy with anything else but a minimum Nov 2 Low *1030 or the 200 MA *1014 with potential to reach down to the *1000 psych barrier as the stronghold from which the March bull run could continue

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

beacon
02-02-2010, 04:23 PM
Glen has stayed his hand in Oz, surprising the market.
Reasons stated: watching impact of previous hikes.
More likely reasons: turmoil over Eurozone trouble, SinoUS tensions and Sino credit tightening.
My expectations: Down moves looking likely in the short-term ...

ananda77
02-02-2010, 04:44 PM
stocktiming.com:


http://i47.tinypic.com/ao5qnd.jpg...some statistics about the NYSE algorithm over a period of the last eleven years:

-this indicator moved to this extreme low point 11 times over the last eleven years
-most of the times, the market saw more down movement for the next 5 days (one time showed 10 days)
-twice, the market went up for 5 days then dropped lower for a week
-a few times, the market hit bottom within 24 hours



Kind Regards

ananda77
03-02-2010, 06:38 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 02 February 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/8yx3ew.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 02 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 02 February 2010:

...the SPX is extending the oversold bounce from Jan 29 Low *1072 and price action is very close to the 38.2% retrace of the Jan Break *1102

...failure at that point should start another move down to test the trendline support off of Oct/Nov Lows *1057

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
04-02-2010, 07:09 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 03 February 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/8yx3ew.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 03 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 03 February 2010:

...the SPX oversold counter-trend rally from Jan 29 Low *1072 appears to have run out of steam; price action to the downside so far is moderate however, still leaving the upside door open for another possible push higher; the next upside targets would be the 20-day MA/50-day MA cross-over *1110 or the Jan 22 High *1115

...failure in that range or closing below yesterday's High *1103 today should start another move down to test the trendline support off of Oct/Nov Lows *1057 initially

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

ananda77
05-02-2010, 06:43 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 04 February 2010


http://i45.tinypic.com/qpo2mv.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 04 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 04 February 2010:

...the SPX 500 got truly hammered in the wake of disappointing employment data and severed the Jan 29 near term support with an intraday Low *1068; it all looks a bit much for one trading day and it is doubtful that *1072 will be taken out on a Close basis, as the 2-days oversold bounce appears to have been pre-maturely sliced dead

...if *1072 holds the index may consolidate for a while in the *1072/*1105 range before *1072 most likely will bite the dust in an impulsive sell-off with the 200-day MA as an initial target

...checking market internals, the Trin ranges close to 3 intraday...

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

peat
05-02-2010, 09:12 AM
thats a huge red candle !

the force must be strong.

evilroyrule
05-02-2010, 12:02 PM
on bad days, sing this song to yourself and remember the good times you have had with your portfolio. the good times that you have shared. and the good times that may lie ahead for you.

you may like to insert the name of your favourite share in place of star. it works equally well if you sing it as "catch a falling knife"


Catch a falling star, Never let it fade away!
Catch a falling star and put it in your pocket,
Save it for a rainy day!

For love may come an' tap you on the shoulder,
Some star-less night!
Just in case you feel you wanna hold her,
Youll have a pocketful of starlight!

Catch a falling star and ( Catch a falling . . . ) put it in your pocket,
Never let it fade away! ( Never let it fade away! )
Catch a falling star and ( Catch a falling . . . ) put it in your pocket,
Save it for a rainy day! ( Save it for a rainy day! )


For when your troubles start a multiplying,
An' they just might!
It's easy to forget them without trying,
With just a pocketful of starlight!

Catch a falling star and ( Catch a falling . . . ) put it in your pocket,
Never let it fade away! ( Never let it fade away! )
Catch a falling star and put it in your pocket,
Save it for a rainy day!

Save it for a rainy day! (put in bottom drawer)

ananda77
06-02-2010, 06:46 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 05 February 2010


http://i46.tinypic.com/4vqvpf.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 05 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 05 February 2010:

...the SPX 500 broke the Jan 29 near term key support *1072 yesterday and traded lower off the trendline support of the Sept/Oct Lows *1059 today pointing the way to a deeper correction ahead

the Trin closed at 3.42 yesterday and a Close above 3 usually marks an exhaustion point; as a consequence, the market appears ready for a bounce into the the key support *1072/*1085 range;

...failure in that range would set the 200-day MA as the next target with potential to reach out for the Aug 17 Low *979

...the institutional index of core holdings http://i46.tinypic.com/epeslt.jpg is less than 1.5% away from a secondary support drawn off the March 30/July 2009 Low

Long Term: THE BEAR

ananda77
06-02-2010, 05:39 PM
That was quite some fightback today ... Phew!

...covering short position at SPX 500 *1056 turned out a bit early but a safe bet

...here is an article dwelling on the benefits of Not sitting like a duck, eyes glazed over, in front of a shot gun barrell:

...

Being Street Smart
Sy Harding
Can Corrections Be Better Than Rallies?
February 5 2010

Twenty years ago, just prior to the 1990 recession, I wrote a little booklet for my subscribers which I titled ‘Bear Markets Are Best’. Its premise was not that bear markets are really better than bull markets, but that they are not something to be feared, and do have some advantages over bull markets. The same goes for intermediate-term corrections within bull markets.
For instance, if y ou position for them in a reasonably timely manner, not just by moving to cash to avoid losses, but to downside positions that go up when the market goes down, the profits can come faster than they do in rallies and bull markets.
That’s because the market moves down much faster in corrections than it moves up in rallies.
For instance, in the 1990 bear market the S&P 500 lost the gains of the previous 15 months in just four months of decline. An investor playing the downside could have made at least some portion of 15 months of gains in just four months, rather than giving back 15 months of gains. In the 1987 bear market the S&P 500 lost the gains of the previous 18 months in just three months. In the 2000-2002 bear market it lost the previous four years of gains in two and half years. In the recent 2007-2009 bear market it lost its previous five years of gains in just 17 months.
At the present time, since its peak on January 19, just over two weeks ago, the S&P has lost all its gains of the previous three months, closing Thursday at its level of November 5.
It is an important lesson not just for buy and hold investors, but for all investors. When market declines take place, if no action is taken, previous gains can be given back much quicker than they were made. Just avoiding at least some of the decline is advantageous to long-term investing performance. If even partial downside positioning is taken in time, further gains can actually be made from the market decline.
In the ‘old days’ prior to the introduction of bear-type mutual funds, and the more recent introduction of ‘inverse’ mutual funds and ‘inverse’ etf’s, investors could only take advantage of market corrections to avoid large losses, and then make some of the profits all over again by getting back in at lower prices.
Even that strategy produced significant market-beating performances.
In 1986 Norman Fosbach included a study in his book Market Logic covering the period from 1964-1984, in which he found that an investor starting with $100,000 in 1964 would have produced a gain of $775,000 over the 20-year period on a buy and hold basis, using the S&P 500 as the proxy. That’s a substantial gain.
However, his study found that if an investor could have timed only the major market swings over the period he would have turned the $100,000 into $13,810,000 over the same period. And timing only successfully enough to avoid the three worst downturns of that 20-year period would have turned $100,000 into $4,797,000, almost six times as much as the market made on a buy and hold basis.
In fact, Fosbach’s study found that any degree of success at all in avoiding even a portion of downdrafts had a tremendous effect on long-term accumulation of wealth. His study showed that if one recognized a correction was underway only perceptively enough to sell short for only one-fourth of each of the three worst corrections during the twenty-year period, and remained invested through all the rest of the downturns, he still would have tripled the return of a buy and hold strategy.
I haven’t run the numbers, but given the market’s periodic give-back of previous gains over the last twenty years, which I noted at the top of the column, it seems obvious that it has been the same situation for the last 20 years. Avoiding even a portion of the big losses, or even better, to make additional gains from downside positions during at least portions of big declines, can be a major influence on long-term investing success.
Given the market’s action of the last two weeks it might be something investors would do well to study up on.

Kind Regards

Hoop
07-02-2010, 12:19 PM
Agree with Belg...a good article Ananda.

These articles surface every once in a while and when they do they are always a "must read"... Over time, we tend to lose investment focus with all the outside interference such as the hype and market noise. These articles help regain that focus.

drillfix
07-02-2010, 02:56 PM
...here is an article dwelling on the benefits of Not sitting like a duck, eyes glazed over, in front of a shot gun barrell:
...
Being Street Smart
Sy Harding
Can Corrections Be Better Than Rallies?
February 5 2010


LOL, some great commentary there ananda, very graphical in the mind :p

Also really good article, nice find.

The gains from also being cash out at key or certain times and whilst using the general market gravity to take Short positions as long alternatives.

Meaning trade the direction of what the general market/index is doing and dont fight it, go with it.

Problem is for most folks or the majority is they are holding stocks and thats all they are doing, holding them and waiting and this unfortunately means when the Tide turns, the gains get washed away but they eventually get it back when the tide turns again.


Again, great post. Thanks~!

ananda77
09-02-2010, 03:09 AM
The SPX 500 Hedge update:


http://i49.tinypic.com/mmue5u.jpg

and it seems very likely, considering Friday's price action, that the index will at least challenge the Feb 4 High *1004

...failure at this point would motivate more selling and new Lows ahead

a successful challenge of *1104 would set the stage for the market to mount another challenge with the *1130 level as target

...failure at this point on a Close basis would indicate *1151 as a market top and motivate more selling with new Lows ahead

a successful challenge of *1130 would signal a market which is prepared to challenge the Jan 11 High *1151 with potential to reach a new High with an initial target range *1161/*1167

Warning: the market is at an important junction; if institutional pivot point support http://i50.tinypic.com/2nbhpqe.jpg is not holding and liquidity http://i46.tinypic.com/2ekrlp2.jpg remains in contraction with institutional selling http://i46.tinypic.com/2hmkigw.jpg increasing -the market is in danger of crashing-

Kind Regards

ananda77
09-02-2010, 06:21 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 08 February 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/dh8xn4.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 08 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 08 February 2010:

...the SPX 500 is extending a corrective bounce up that started Friday 5 in late trading and appears to be headed into the *1073/*1080 range short term; at the time of writing, the index has already reached an intraday High *1070 where some selling became apparent

...failure in that range would set a new down target in the *1030/*1017 range, the Oct/Nov 2009 Lows with potential to reach down to the Aug 17 Low *979

Long Term: THE BEAR

ananda77
10-02-2010, 06:13 AM
...quick update on the GO...

*1073/*1080 appears to be firm resistance and the lower end of the range *1073 -if failing as support- would signal another sell-off is imminent; would not want to be in a long position below *1073 -more sometime later-

Kind Regards

peat
10-02-2010, 07:23 AM
a couple of days after the hammer and we get a morning star engulfing pattern, possibly the best sign of a turnaround yet. not that I'm overly bullish, its not a huge number of points.... but its perhaps a warning that the bounce may not have fully played out yet. (And that there may be better times to add more shorts)

ananda77
10-02-2010, 04:33 PM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 09 February 2010


http://i46.tinypic.com/bwq6u.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 09 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 09 February 2010:

...the SPX 500 extended a corrective bounce up that started Friday 5 in late trading and headed into the *1073/*1080 range today before reversing to a Close below *1073 the low limit resistance of the Feb 4 congestion

...intraday trading was well supported around the *1060 level and as long as this level remains supported the market tone would be favorable to carry the index towards the Jan 22 congestion *1110

...failure in the *1060 range would move the index to the Feb 5 Low *1044 initially with sharp rebound potential to set the index up with a double bottom to go for the Jan 11 High *1151; penetrating *1044 would signal continued bearish potential with lower Lows ahead

Long Term: THE BEAR

ananda77
11-02-2010, 06:40 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 10 February 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/iwp669.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 10 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 10 February 2010:

...a brief display of weakness, had the SPX 500 severe the *1060 support with an intraday Low *1059 so far and the current ongoing attempt to push higher into the *1080/*1090 congestion appears laboured with a down bias remaining

...failure in that range would indicate a readiness of the market to sell off down to the Feb 5 Low *1044 initially with sharp rebound potential to set the index up with a double bottom to go for the Jan 11 High *1151 (??eventually??)

...penetrating *1044 would signal continued bearish potential with lower Lows ahead

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77
12-02-2010, 05:59 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 11 February 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/iwp669.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 11 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 11 February 2010:

...the SPX 500 overcame early weakness with *1060 support holding so far and the current ongoing attempt to push higher into the *1080/*1090 congestion appears ongoing; there should be enough strength above *1071 to trade into the range short term

...failure in that range would indicate a readiness of the market to sell off down to the Feb 5 Low *1044 initially and penetrating *1044 would signal continued bearish potential with lower Lows ahead


Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77
13-02-2010, 07:33 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 12 February 2010


http://i49.tinypic.com/2guwpl5.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 12 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 12 February 2010:

...the SPX 500 overcame early weakness with *1060 support still holding so far and the current attempt to push higher into the *1086/*1094 congestion appears ongoing; there should be enough strength above *1061 to trade into the range short term; considering market internals however; there is big risk out there that *1060 support is on its way out...

...failure in that range would indicate a readiness of the market to sell off down to the Feb 5 Low *1044 initially and penetrating *1044 would signal continued bearish potential with lower Lows ahead

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

Phaedrus
13-02-2010, 09:17 AM
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP213.gif

ananda77
17-02-2010, 07:37 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 16 February 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/2r4im2b.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 16 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 16 February 2010:

...after the SPX 500 successfully held the Jan 11 Low *1061 as support last Friday, the market rallied up today to test the *1090/*1097 range as expected; the institutional index of core holdings http://i49.tinypic.com/9rrbdg.jpg remians in a downtrend and liquidity inflows (Fed/Foreign) http://i50.tinypic.com/w7ip37.jpg remains in contraction territory so far; risk is high for the market to continue its negative bias

...failure in that range would indicate a readiness of the market to sell off down to the Feb 5 Low *1044 initially and penetrating *1044 would signal continued bearish potential with lower Lows ahead

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

peat
17-02-2010, 09:29 AM
yeh its noticeable too that the 1095 area is the kijun sen (in pink) line of resistance using the ichi moku daily , kumo cloud above at 1110

ananda77
17-02-2010, 04:59 PM
yeh its noticeable too that the 1095 area is the kijun sen (in pink) line of resistance using the ichi moku daily , kumo cloud above at 1110

...yes, after today's action on !low volume! (again), as long as the market stays below *1110 towards the end of the week, the bear will bite again, otherwise the index will trade to the *1130/*1140 range
...watch the SPX 500 consolidation *1085/*1110 pattern in the futures and open US market tonight

Kind Regards

Hi Peat,

Thanks for posting the Ichi moku style SPX 500 updates; another way of posting the charts is:
-to upload the file to www.tinypic.com
-copy the file
-and paste it into your post

in that way, those interested can see the chart without 'log on'

Thanks

ananda77
18-02-2010, 06:46 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 17 February 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/2r4im2b.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 17 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 17 February 2010:

...slight profit taking down from the Feb 5 Peak *1105 but the market remains strong above *1093 intraday so far supporting the view that another High is in the making for Thursday trading; however, market breadth has weakened considerably and momentum points to a heavily overbought market; risk is still high for a bearish reversal near term

...important price levels for a market top is a Close below the Feb 11 Peak *1080 and a Close below the Feb 5 Low *1056 is needed to signal a market ready to push for new Lows

...most likely is a trading range between *1060/*1100 near term with high potential to break down to test the 200-day MA *1025 minimum

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77
19-02-2010, 06:02 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 18 February 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/2r4im2b.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 18 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 18 February 2010:

...ahead of option expiry, the market remains strong above *1093 intraday so far supporting the view that another High is in the making for Thursday trading; however, market breadth has weakened considerably and momentum points to a heavily overbought market; risk is still high for a bearish reversal near term

...important price levels for a market top is a Close below the Feb 11 Peak *1080 and a Close below the Feb 5 Low *1056 is needed to signal a market ready to push for new Lows

...most likely is a trading range between *1060/*1100 near term with high potential to break down to test the 200-day MA *1025 minimum

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

peat
19-02-2010, 12:56 PM
the action often happens after your posts a77 !
it got rejected pretty savagely from just below that cloud at 1108 this morning.... yes I know there was a news event funny how they often happen at critical TA points though

ananda77
20-02-2010, 06:07 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 19 February 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/2rgghoi.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 19 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 19 February 2010:

...the SPX 500 inches higher with anemic volume after penetrating the Feb 2 High *1105 and looks set to trade into the Jan 23 congestion *1123 next week

...important price levels for a market top is a Close below the Feb 11 Peak *1080 and a Close below the Feb 5 Low *1056 is needed to signal a market ready to push for new Lows

...most likely is a trading range between *1060/*1123 near term with high potential to break down to test the 200-day MA *1025 minimum

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77
23-02-2010, 06:43 AM
www.invetrics.com:- data point 22 February 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/2rp733l.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 22 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 22 February 2010:

...the SPX 500 consolidating above Feb 5 High *1105 on extremely light flows and looks set to trade into the Jan 23 congestion *1123* with potential to reach out to the Jan 20 Low *1129 this week

...important price levels for a market top is a Close below the Feb 11 Peak *1080 and a Close below the Feb 5 Low *1056 is needed to signal a market ready to push for new Lows

...most likely is a trading range between *1060/*1123 near term with high potential to break down to test the 200-day MA *1025 minimum

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77
24-02-2010, 06:58 AM
www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 23 February 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/2chvs74.jpg

www.invetrics.com:- data point 23 February 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/2rp733l.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 23 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 23 February 2010:

...the SPX 500 initially pushed below intraday first support *1105 and never looked back, right now just cliffhanging on the *1090/*1094 support range; maybe a tad early to call the bulls 'diappeared over the horizon, tails between legs' but a Close today below *1094:

>>bearish config with the market loosing it's grip and falling to *1080 initially with free fall potential (+)

a Close today above *1094:

>>one possibility of a Close above *1094 would be a short 50% retrace of today's action then falling to *1080 initially with free fall potential (+)
>>another possibility of a Close above *1094 would be a second test of Jan 21 Congestion *1123 or the Jan 20 Low *1129

...regarding near term trading positions:

>>the market = positive/bullish above *1112 and the bears are dead above *1120
>>the market = trading in bear territory below *1104/*1106

...important price levels for a market top is a Close below the Feb 11 Peak *1080 and a Close below the Feb 5 Low *1056 is needed to signal a market ready to push for new Lows

...most likely is a trading range between *1060/*1123 near term with high potential to break down to test the 200-day MA *1025 minimum

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77
25-02-2010, 07:28 AM
www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 24 February 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/2chvs74.jpg

www.invetrics.com:- data point 24 February 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/2rp733l.jpg (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 24 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 24 February 2010:

# U.S. new home sales plunged 11.2% to 306k in Jan, well below median 354k
# U.S. MBA mortgage market index fell 8.5%; purchases -7.3% and refis -8.9%
# Concerns grow over China's sale of U.S. bonds; fears for dollar carry trade future - FT
# Fed chief Ben Bernanke tells lawmakers the U.S. recovery cannot yet be considered self-sustaining.

...the SPX 500 hovers below the 50-day MA *1108 and the market still has to make a decisive move out of the deadlock one way or the other: up to *1120 (and then???) or down to *1070 (makes sense); so its too early to be definite about the up-coming move but looking at the index, a 5-month trading range almost equal on either side of *1100 smells like the market had it's top (anyway, that's what David Rosenberg thinks)

...important price levels for a market top is a Close below the Feb 11 Peak *1080 and a Close below the Feb 5 Low *1056 is needed to signal a market ready to push for new Lows

...most likely is a trading range between *1060/*1123 near term with high potential to break down to test the 200-day MA *1025 minimum

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77
26-02-2010, 06:29 AM
www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 25 February 2010


http://i50.tinypic.com/2chvs74.jpg

www.invetrics.com:- data point 25 February 2010


http://i49.tinypic.com/25suc0l.png (may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 25 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 25 February 2010:

...the SPX 500 gapped sharply lower but so far follow through action is tepid -no surprise after yesterday's institutional accumulation day-; the market trades close to the Feb 11 Peak *1080, the key level, if broken, would confirm the Feb 12 High *1112 as Top and signal deeper losses further out; a Close below the Feb 5 Low *1056 is needed to signal an imminent push for new Lows

...until *1056 is taken out, a trading range between *1060/*1112 near term is likely with high potential to break down to test the 200-day MA *1025 minimum

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

ananda77
26-02-2010, 01:21 PM
after close of market:

...buy program manipulation catapulted the market out of a trend which should have seen the fall of the *1080 level today; the first indication of such a move was yesterday's positve A/D ratio; as a result, the SPX 500 targets are now *1128/*1139/*1154 according to classic bear market 3-wave moves: A = *1044 - *1112; B = *1112 - *1086; and C = in progress with above targets;

...caution: a sharp move down that takes out *1092 would turn the market near term bearish again, while up-targets are confirmed with a Close above the 50-day MA

Kind Regards