QAN - Qantas Airways

[Tee]

Share price went up today, pushing through the $3.00 mark, high volume too.

And just a few months ago its sp was below $2.00.

Forecast earnings for the current year and the next year are not attractive.

Do buyers think a few years ahead.....

[macduffy]

This is more a comment on International Accounting Standards than on QAN's profit forecast of '$50m - $150m'.

Interesting, nevertheless.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Qantas-silly-season-pd20091222-YY3A2?OpenDocument&src=kgb

[Snow Leopard]

Had to descend into the deepest catacombs on the Sharetrader server to find this.
There are things down there you best not know about.

Luckily I tied one end of the Air New Zealand thread to the door-knocker and was able to find my way back here.

Anyways much as I am not a fan of investing in Airlines I note that
S&P no longer regard Qantas as junk (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=QAN&E=ASX&N=892152)
which puts it back among the elite tin-can (and these day) plastic bottle flyers.

Qantas themselves are saying this about their future (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=QAN&E=ASX&N=891996).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: Also found an historical Virgin Blue discussion (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1457-vba-virgin-blue-holdings-(airlines))

[Snow Leopard]

A$921M Underlying Profit Before Tax - up 151%
A$983M Statutory Profit Before Tax - up 240%
A$688M Statutory Profit After Tax - up 234%

$0.319 Earnings Per Share - well that is up a lot as well.

And that is with a few 'one-off' expenses and the great transformation project is not done yet.

Another $500M share buy back - wonderful


But...

Look into the crystal ball, assume that pump price of a liter of av-gas will increase and that there will be another Indonesian Volcano (or similar) and I don't see how this can worth more than $4.05.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

For quite some time I haven't seen it being worth any more than an AIR share. Yes they're doing especially well right at the minute with dirt cheap oil helping them with their older fuel hungry fleet.

Still running a bunch of those thirsty maintenance hungry 747's :eek2: (Accountants nightmare when fuel goes up). Good to see the Roo wagging its tail, (had too really after that truly shocking recent $2.8 billion loss). At least AIR made profits throughout the GFC.

[Snow Leopard]

For quite some time I haven't seen it being worth any more than an AIR share. Yes they're doing especially well right at the minute with dirt cheap oil helping them with their older fuel hungry fleet.

Still running a bunch of those thirsty maintenance hungry 747's :eek2: (Accountants nightmare when fuel goes up). Good to see the Roo wagging its tail, (had too really after that truly shocking recent $2.8 billion loss). At least AIR made profits throughout the GFC.

So what is the average ago the AIR fleet and what is the average age of the QAN fleet?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

8 Years for QAN with light future capex and AIR are 7 point something, see tomorrow's release and heading into the six point something range in next couple of years.

[Snow Leopard]

First quarter information / Half year guidance is out here (http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=QAN&E=ASX&N=981435).

Expecting NPBT of $800-850M down from an actual $921M from the last 1H.

With all the shares they have been buying back, then at an EPS level it would not appear to be such a decline.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Do not hold any airlines.

[Snow Leopard]

Qantas have announced that they are going to fly Perth to London direct from 2018 in one of those 787-9 thingies.

I will presume that they will also fly back as well.

That is even further than Auckland/Dubai :ohmy:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[biker]

It's gotta be a stunt for publicity and to show that they are now buying the latest technology aircraft (at least that Boeing can provide but that they should have bought years ago)

But, perhaps yet again they are behind the game......
Wouldn't surprise me if AIR end up with some of these.

Singapore Airlines (SIA) has selected Airbus’ newly launched Ultra-Long Range version of the A350-900 for non-stop flights to the US. Under an amendment to the carrier’s existing order for 63 A350-900s, seven of the aircraft will now be delivered with an Ultra-Long Range capability for flights of up to 19 hours. In addition, the carrier has placed an additional order for four A350-900s, taking its total firm orders for the A350 XWB Family to 67.
Optimised for non-stop flights to the US, the aircraft, designated A350-900ULR (Ultra-Long Range), will ‎include a modified fuel system to increase the fuel carrying capacity, an increase in Maximum Take-Off Weight, plus aerodynamic improvements, enabling service to the US West Coast, as well as to New York.
Representing a distance of some 8,700 nautical miles, the New York service will be the world’s longest commercial passenger route, with an expected flight time of up to 19 hours. Moreover, the unique flexibility offered by the A350 XWB allows operators to reconfigure their A350-900ULR to the standard long-haul A350-900 specification should they require it.

[Snow Leopard]

Singapore used to fly to/from New York with a A340 until a few years ago (I think $100+ fuel killed it) so they are resuming the service.
I believe it will be business class only with 136 seats this time.

With the new generation of wide-bodies longer ranges seem possible, there has been talk of London-Sydney direct for instance.

We will see.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Jay]

An awful long time to be stuck in a plane, next to possibly someone you've never met before and may well be snoring before you do, obnoxious, polite ...(insert anything you like).
What we really need is a aircraft something like the Concord but more efficient, something that can fly faster, to go these long distances. Maybe smaller capacity, but faster and you would have more demand IMHO.
Personally I would rather take longer and have a stop off somewhere for a few days in either or both directions

[macduffy]

Personally I would rather take longer and have a stop off somewhere for a few days in either or both directions



Me too, Jay. But there's still a lot of folk who must get to wherever in the shortest possible time! Strange, considering that modern communications rarely demand physical presence for these high powered meetings.

[Jay]

Me too, Jay. But there's still a lot of folk who must get to wherever in the shortest possible time! Strange, considering that modern communications rarely demand physical presence for these high powered meetings.

Yes agree macduffy, I was going to mention that as well, but omitted too.

[Snow Leopard]

Qantas worth $7.09 a share?

Of course it is!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

NASA - Atmospheric Layers (https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/science/atmosphere-layers2.html)

[Beagle]

Surprised to see QAN rally even further on Friday to $5.37. According to 4 traders that puts them on a PE of 11 for FY17 and sticking at around that level based on average broker forecasts for FY18 and FY19. Meanwhile AIR on a PE of late 8's with outlook in the late 8's are still somewhat behind their 10 year PE average of 11 so possibly have as much as another 25% upside potential from here.
Not convinced QAN's business model or growth profile is any more robust than AIR's and not at all convinced they deserve a higher PE.
$2.37 price difference is massive and unwarranted in my opinion and to the best of my knowledge a multi year high.

[Snow Leopard]

Good result from Qantas - everything seems to be ticking along nicely.

Definitely worth reading the accounts and commentary carefully to understand the current numbers correctly and how Q is likely to progress over a year or two.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: Hold no airline shares

[Snow Leopard]

Qantas update makes for interesting reading [ link direct from QANTAS (https://investor.qantas.com/DownloadFile.axd?file=/Report/ComNews/20200505/02232194.pdf) ]

Of especial note is that are expecting to get down to $40M a week net cash out (equivalent to $2B a year) which I am reasonably impressed by.

We will see how flying progresses over the coming months and years and how well they rebuild ready for the next flock of black swans.

[stoploss]

Qantas update makes for interesting reading [ click me link (https://quoteapi.com/resources/da9866271f9d0071/announcements/qan.asx/2A1223791/QAN_Qantas_Group_Market_Update.pdf?embed=1) ]

Of especial note is that are expecting to get down to $40M a week net cash out (equivalent to $2B a year) which I am reasonably impressed by.

We will see how flying progresses over the coming months and years and how well they rebuild ready for the next flock of black swans.

Might have to try again with that link , I couldn't get it to work.

[Snow Leopard]

Might have to try again with that link , I couldn't get it to work.

Sorry forgot you guys do not have my super powers :cool:.

Try the revised one in my post.

If that does not work, click harder.

And if that does not work then give up.

[macduffy]

Thanks, Snow Leopard. QAN sound very positive.