AYN Alcyone Resources Limited prev Macmin Silver

[drillfix]

Anybody got exposure, thoughts, ideas, hopes, rants or raves about this ones future?

Seems the buy side atm is growing "rapidly" on this.

Took a small position at 5.2 for a short term punt, will see how it pans out.

From iRess here is some of the blurb/profile:

======================================

GENERAL
Issuer Name Alcyone Resources Ltd
Description Ordinary Fully Paid
Industry Group Metals & Mining - 151040
Shares on Issue 600,555,407
Price (previous close in cents) 4.7 Market Cap ($) 28,226,104

======================================
ALCYONE RESOURCES LIMITED [AYN]

Last Updated 16/11/2009

CORPORATE DETAILS
GICS Sector 15: Materials
GICS Industry Group 1510: Materials
GICS Industry 151040: Metals & Mining

PRINCIPAL ACTIVITY
Alcyone Resources Limited (AYN, formerly named Macmin Silver Ltd) is a minerals
exploration and mining company focused on silver and gold in Australia. The
company's main project is the Twin Hills Silver Projects, located in southern
Queensland.

ADMINISTRATION: As at October 2009, the company has emerged from voluntary
administration and changed its name to Alcyone Resources Ltd following its
capital raising and creditors' approval.

TWIN HILLS SILVER PROJECTS: The Texas Silver Project (EPM 8854) is located 100km
west of Stanthorpe, Queensland. Twin Hills Mine Lease (ML 50161) had mined
433,963t @ approximately 94g/t Ag from the Measured and Indicated Resource as at
June 2008. Silver Spur prospect (ML 5932) contains an Inferred Mineral Resource
of 90,000t @ 158g/t Ag, 3.17% Pb, 15.8% Zn and 0.35% Cu. Other Projects within
the area include: Dumaresq (EPM 8854), Oakey Creek (EPM 12858) and Waverley Lane
EPM (14092).

RIVERTREE JV (75%): The project is located NE of Tenterfield in northern NSW. It
is a JV with Malachite Resources. Rock chip samples returned best result of
1,660g/t Ag, 13.55% Pb and 3.1% Zn at the Phoenix North workings and best gold
result of 8.19g/t on the Phillipines Lode.

TALLY HO: The project is located 45km SW of Mackay in QLD and is prospective for
silver and base metals. As at June 2008, The Tally Ho Project has an Inferred
Mineral Resource of 733,000t @ 49g/t Ag, 0.06g/t Au, 0.1% Cu, 0.9% Pb and 0.83%
Zn.

INVESTMENTS: MMN holds 15% interest in PNG gold producer New Guinea Gold
Corporation; 1.87% of metals explorer Malachite Resources N.L. and a 4.1%
interest in the gold explorer Frontier Resources Limited.

=====================================

[lewinsky]

Hi Drill,

You will have the answer to this, but has there been a successful silver miner with operations in Australia.

Gold-yes, Uranium-yes,iron ore-yes, manganese-yes, lithium -yes etc etc,

But I am not too sure about silver.

[drillfix]

Gold-yes, Uranium-yes,iron ore-yes, manganese-yes, lithium -yes etc etc,

But I am not too sure about silver.


Hi Lew,

Maybe thats exactly why they went broke previously..:rolleyes:

But saying that, had a quick look at a previous appendix and no wonder they went broke when Management issuing themselves Millions of shares and options.

This is when certain companies fall victim to Management whom only want to Bleed a Living out of it leaving the shareholders bewildered.


My policy is if they fail to make a company work out of bad management then they should be SHOT in the back of the head with a shotgun and pushed into the crushing machine whilst all the shares and options issued get given to the next guy.


Cant remember where I seen that article about Directors and Management making a living from Failing Companies. Pretty sick really and most of the need their balls chopped off.

(actually think the link was posted in another thread).

Anyways, dont know how this one will go. Perhaps good in the short term as history potentially repeats.

[soulman]

Hi Drill,

You will have the answer to this, but has there been a successful silver miner with operations in Australia.

Gold-yes, Uranium-yes,iron ore-yes, manganese-yes, lithium -yes etc etc,

But I am not too sure about silver.

CCU looks good at the mo Lew. Don't hold any but it has gone 5 fold in the last 3 months. Still in exploration stage though.

Drill, you are a sick risk trader. AYN just recap at 1 cents for over 550 mil shares. One thing you have is big balls. Good luck to you.

[macduffy]

A successful Aussie silver miner?

How about Bolnisi Gold? ( or similar name!)

The company taken over by Coeur a few years ago. I believe it was predominantly a silver miner but stand to be corrected.

:)

[drillfix]

Drill, you are a sick risk trader. AYN just recap at 1 cents for over 550 mil shares. One thing you have is big balls. Good luck to you.


Soulman, no big balls here mate, just pure sicko at times is me. :D :rolleyes:

Having lived with URA for the past few years it dont get any more risky than that..LOL

Funny thing is, after I bought in for a short trade, was sitting watching the intraday and I seen the price go up to 5.4c and then the phone rang and it was Dell phoning me about one of my LCD monitors, I was walking around the house talking and totally distracted and then remembered "Oh thats right a small profit to be had", so came back and it was down to 5c then 4.9 etc etc, and then oooppssss.


Not a problem though, taking a loss is part of being a trader as you know, though learning from it doesn't come any harder be it for either being stupid, slow, not thinking fast. But will see how it pans out tomorrow, may make a small profit still :D

[macduffy]

A successful Aussie silver miner?

How about Bolnisi Gold? ( or similar name!)

The company taken over by Coeur a few years ago. I believe it was predominantly a silver miner but stand to be corrected.

:)

Correction.

Bolnisi's silver/gold interests were primarily a shareholding in the Palmarejo (Mexico) deposits. So it hardly qualified as a "successful Aussie silver miner" in the truest sense.

Perhaps the closest to that have been the silver/lead miners in the Broken Hill area?

[drillfix]

Soulman, now out @ 5.3c for a micro small profit. (sh#t now 5.5c ah well)


See, the water is warm, jump in Hahaaa~~! :p :rolleyes:

[whatsup]

What are the details of the options , date and price?

[marknz88]

I took a small trade yesterday, in @ 5.3 and out @ 5.2 when that drop down to 4.9 begun. Noted today it was back trading around 5.5 haha. Thats how the cookie crumbles!

[drillfix]

I took a small trade yesterday, in @ 5.3 and out @ 5.2 when that drop down to 4.9 begun. Noted today it was back trading around 5.5 haha. Thats how the cookie crumbles!

Yes Mark, but one KEY indicator of demand = VOLUME was a hint that should have stood out.

Im not saying you should have stayed in, but for me, personally I should have yielded or bide my time a little more effectively to see how this played out and left a sell order in the first hour rather than waiting to midday whilst VOLUME was still hammering away could have given me some gains.

Oh well, it is the learning part which really does it for me, so next time a similar story appears, I will apply a little less trigger finger.

[drillfix]

What are the details of the options , date and price?


http://www.markets.theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=AYNOB

Not sure it this is right but look at the Exercise price on this one:

Ex Price 1.60
Exp Date 30 Sep 2011

is that 1.6 cents or $1.60 ???

[marknz88]

Yes Mark, but one KEY indicator of demand = VOLUME was a hint that should have stood out.

Im not saying you should have stayed in, but for me, personally I should have yielded or bide my time a little more effectively to see how this played out and left a sell order in the first hour rather than waiting to midday whilst VOLUME was still hammering away could have given me some gains.


Yeah although I was happy to take the loss. I got in anticipating the volume to keep churning upwards but instead I hit a dead spot and wasn't that comfortable sitting there like a duck waiting for the market to make its mind up which way it was going to go!

But yes definitely a learning experience to keep in mind :)

[lewinsky]

I ended up taking some of these last week at 3 cents.

Good presentation today has seen the price move to 4 cents.

Could be a little more in this.

[shasta]

I ended up taking some of these last week at 3 cents.

Good presentation today has seen the price move to 4 cents.

Could be a little more in this.

AYN - More high grade assay results from the Mt Gunyan Silver deposit

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=508101

Updated JORC due in November 2010

I like this Silver play, also for the silver bulls have a look at the recent high grades results from GSC

[soulman]

AYN - More high grade assay results from the Mt Gunyan Silver deposit

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=508101

Updated JORC due in November 2010

I like this Silver play, also for the silver bulls have a look at the recent high grades results from GSC

I was lucky to grab some at 4 yesterday. I had an order in last week at 3.3 and missed it by a whiskas on Fri. Talk about luck in the sharemarket. This is the luck factor. I am very aware of capital raising in surging share prices. BTU is one where I got caught (they are recovering well right now) and SBL is the other I got caught with. Who's next?

[lewinsky]

Just hit the 5 cents. I think that there is a bit to go on this.

Silver price certainly helping.

[JBmurc]

yeah many years ago MMN trade at a 200mill market cap silver was $14oz AYN is currently 38mill Silver price $23.40

my silver Holdings -SVL,ARDO

---fact----each cruise missile contains 4 kg of silver.

[shasta]

yeah many years ago MMN trade at a 200mill market cap silver was $14oz AYN is currently 38mill Silver price $23.40

my silver Holdings -SVL,ARDO

---fact----each cruise missile contains 4 kg of silver.

Been running the ruler over AYN (+ ARD) again, especially with silver closing in on $US30/oz

Market Cap @ $0.042 = ~$A32m, cash @ Sept = $3m, less est 1m spent this qtr, so say EV of $30m

They own Macmins old Twin Hills Silver project infrastructure (with estimated replacement value $15 - 20m)

EV drops to $10 - 15m, if the infrastructure is included (they are tangibles assets needed for production!)

JORC ~15m/oz Silver resource, worth $A450m @ $A30/oz

More drilling results & updated JORC due in Dec, should ensure more good news for the market

[lewinsky]

Hi Shasta,

I see AYN is in a trading halt, hopefully some more good assay results.

I get a tad nervous on trading halts these days, esp after the NKP debacle.

Cheers

LEW

[macduffy]

I've been "loosely" following AYN recently, as a possible silver interest to replace my CXC ( now de-listed from the ASX).

I'd have thought that it would be at least an equal bet that the trading halt precedes a capital raising - they must be needing a decent injection to develop the Twin Hills deposit. Coupled with further positive assay results, of course!

[shasta]

I've been "loosely" following AYN recently, as a possible silver interest to replace my CXC ( now de-listed from the ASX).

I'd have thought that it would be at least an equal bet that the trading halt precedes a capital raising - they must be needing a decent injection to develop the Twin Hills deposit. Coupled with further positive assay results, of course!

Capital raising or maybe raise debt against the twin hills infrastructure, to fund the upgrade & refurbishment

At least they dont have to build it from scratch, its all there

[soulman]

Capital raising. It's in the announcement.

[macduffy]

Hmmm......Southern Cross Equities have been mandated to raise up to $10m at 3.5cps on a "best endeavours" basis.

Not exactly what I expected so I think I'll sit this one out meanwhile.

[drillfix]

Looks like a fall is inevitable Macduff, obviously some folks wanting to take the quick buck while they can is my guess.

[JBmurc]

ARD a better play IMHO

[macduffy]

ARD a better play IMHO

I'm inclined to agree. I'll be taking a closer look at ARD now.

[shasta]

I'm inclined to agree. I'll be taking a closer look at ARD now.

AYN - Quarterly Report

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=524306

Late 2011 production kicks in, looking at 1.5 - 2.0m/oz of silver @ cash costs of $A13.50/oz

Estimated capital costs a very moderate $A13m

Along with ARD & CCU, im following these 3 silver plays, all should do well this year

[JBmurc]

AYN - Quarterly Report

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=524306

Late 2011 production kicks in, looking at 1.5 - 2.0m/oz of silver @ cash costs of $A13.50/oz

Estimated capital costs a very moderate $A13m

Along with ARD & CCU, im following these 3 silver plays, all should do well this year

yeah been looking into AYN once again 40mill market value producing late this year hasn't really run on increase of silver much like ARD unlike CCU which is getting most of the Silver investors funds

[percy]

I brought a few today at 4.5cents.I thought the quarterly report read well.

[JBmurc]

I brought a few today at 4.5cents.I thought the quarterly report read well.

Yeah same looks good esp if you bullish on silver which I am --market hohum bids 4.3c offers 4.4c

[shasta]

Yeah same looks good esp if you bullish on silver which I am --market hohum bids 4.3c offers 4.4c

AYN - Promising Base Metal drill results @ Silver Spur

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=525508

Including...

76.8m @ 1.38% lead and 3.45% zinc, including 17m @ 2.4% lead and 6.22% zinc (from hole ACSSD002)

AYN owns 100% of this project, & certainly adds value to there Silver projects

Current SP = 4.1c

[shasta]

AYN - Promising Base Metal drill results @ Silver Spur

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=525508

Including...

76.8m @ 1.38% lead 3.45% zinc, including 17m @ 2.4% lead and 6.22% zinc (from hole ACSSD002)

AYN owns 100% of this project, & certainly adds value to there Silver projects

Current SP = 4.1c

AYN - Further encouraging results from Texas exploration programme

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=525943

The Hornet prospect had intercepts of up to 8% Cu

Nice that this near term silver producer has some promising projects in other metals

[JBmurc]

AYN - Further encouraging results from Texas exploration programme

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=525943

The Hornet prospect had intercepts of up to 8% Cu

Nice that this near term silver producer has some promising projects in other metals

yeah is a hard decision which Silver jnr to invest in they all have major potential

[shasta]

yeah is a hard decision which Silver jnr to invest in they all have major potential

For me AYN & ARD are the only two near term silver companies that still look undervalued, with undemanding market caps

[percy]

GeWiz is that you and your mate buying AYN today JB.? big volume.

[evilroyrule]

and bingo. except i shifted my buy to 3.9 this morning.

[JBmurc]

no not yet

[drillfix]

yeah is a hard decision which Silver jnr to invest in they all have major potential

JB, why dont you buy both mate, you got the cash to spread around dont you? :P

But should you do such a move, give it time to see which one takes on direction and pull one out of the other into the other.

Of course, just an outsiders opinion as you know :)

[JBmurc]

JB, why dont you buy both mate, you got the cash to spread around dont you? :P

But should you do such a move, give it time to see which one takes on direction and pull one out of the other into the other.

Of course, just an outsiders opinion as you know :)

well I just brought a good size postion in AYN @ 3.9c- looking foward to the second half with some silver production underway

Still holding some of my ARDO did sell a third at 4c not to happy on likely small option exercise re-price of only 2.5c while ARD holders are likely to get 8c+ value on distribution with ex.date just under 5 months away I need ARD to get into gear...My plan is to sell or convert my opts then sell and not hold ARD on ex. distrb date but hopefully get ARD in the low teens from any sell-off

[shasta]

well I just brought a good size postion in AYN @ 3.9c- looking foward to the second half with some silver production underway

Still holding some of my ARDO did sell a third at 4c not to happy on likely small option exercise re-price of only 2.5c while ARD holders are likely to get 8c+ value on distribution with ex.date just under 5 months away I need ARD to get into gear...My plan is to sell or convert my opts then sell and not hold ARD on ex. distrb date but hopefully get ARD in the low teens from any sell-off

AYN - Twin Hills Silver Project - Development Update

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=529205

Trial production from Q2, & 770k/oz productionwith a minimum put option @ $A27/oz (ensuring a minimum 50% gross margin)

After raising $16.7m recently, AYN are fully funded to start Twin Hills into production

[percy]

AYN - Twin Hills Silver Project - Development Update

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=529205

Trial production from Q2, & 770k/oz productionwith a minimum put option @ $A27/oz (ensuring a minimum 50% gross margin)

After raising $16.7m recently, AYN are fully funded to start Twin Hills into production
I read the announcement and thought everything was moving along at a good pace.very positive.

[JBmurc]

yes AYN going in the right direction 5c now like silver is up over $31 very bullish for both glad to have brought more when the fools were selling average 3.9c all brought this month

[shasta]

yes AYN going in the right direction 5c now like silver is up over $31 very bullish for both glad to have brought more when the fools were selling average 3.9c all brought this month

80m shares already traded today & up 0.5c to 5.9c (intraday high 6.2c so far)

Silver heading towards $US34/oz at a great rate of knots...

[drillfix]

You trading these ones Shasta, or just being a spectator on this one?

Traded these quite a while back for a couple of scalps when the first came back online but now seems the POS are attracting the traders here.

Also, some good buying there JBM

ps:

Just looked at the chart on this one folks.

To me, it now appears the Hourly is about to fall.
Meaning, macd signal crossover about to head down, and histogram decreasing like it will turn negative.

IMO, atm I would be selling and not buying, but thats just me (based on 60min chart)

[JBmurc]

Big volume today biggest since early oct 10 many investors wanting to get on board a Silver focus miner AYN with production soon to be under if it isn't already a great play

[shasta]

You trading these ones Shasta, or just being a spectator on this one?

Traded these quite a while back for a couple of scalps when the first came back online but now seems the POS are attracting the traders here.

Also, some good buying there JBM

ps:

Just looked at the chart on this one folks.

To me, it now appears the Hourly is about to fall.
Meaning, macd signal crossover about to head down, and histogram decreasing like it will turn negative.

IMO, atm I would be selling and not buying, but thats just me (based on 60min chart)

Still just watching im afraid, not that i'd be trading AYN, i'm still very bullish on silver for the mid term (next 6 > 24 months) & think AYN will only keep moving on up when full production starts, the cash costs est @ $A13.50 show AYN will be very profitable silver producer with 1.5 - 2.0m/oz annual production expected

[JBmurc]

AYN at 6c on my average buy price I'm up 53% not bad when I only brought them at the start of FEB temped to take some profits .....

[shasta]

AYN at 6c on my average buy price I'm up 53% not bad when I only brought them at the start of FEB temped to take some profits .....

Silver is due to retest support at $31/oz (which would be healthy for the mid term), so i wouldnt blame you for exiting around 6c

[JBmurc]

Silver is due to retest support at $31/oz (which would be healthy for the mid term), so i wouldnt blame you for exiting around 6c

yep taking my 53% month profit back to cash looking to top up my HLX postion @ 10.5c with some of the spare funds

[shasta]

yep taking my 53% month profit back to cash looking to top up my HLX postion @ 10.5c with some of the spare funds

That was easy money for a month ;)

[percy]

yep taking my 53% month profit back to cash looking to top up my HLX postion @ 10.5c with some of the spare funds

53% in a month has to be good.

[shasta]

53% in a month has to be good.

AYN up 0.8c to 6.4c on 80m traded :)

Those 3.5c shares in the placement should have been at market or a premium, given the price of silver being so strong!

AYN now at a ~$80m MCap, but CCU are ~$130m, so i see more upside in AYN still in comparison

[JBmurc]

arrrrrggg close 66c missed out on another 6c must have been a strong finish hope this doesn't go IAU OGC on me

[percy]

arrrrrggg close 66c missed out on another 6c must have been a strong finish hope this doesn't go IAU OGC on me

I hope you have a sense of humour,because I am still holding and hope it goes to the moon.!!!

[shasta]

I hope you have a sense of humour,because I am still holding and hope it goes to the moon.!!!

Surely its due a wee retrace (as is silver) so taking profits now, might enable a cheaper entry for the next leg up

AYN is running on the back of silver & a lack of real silver peers, it will beat CCU into production

Percy, i do think AYN will be much higher than 6c come 31 Dec 2011, but getting around 6.5c now would be good

[JBmurc]

I hope you have a sense of humour,because I am still holding and hope it goes to the moon.!!!

hope not till I get back on board for once I do hope silver retraces to 31 and AYN back to the mid 5's has gone so hard of late it needs a breather then once back on board it can go to 20c+ LOL I come close to just selling half of my holding but shasta words of silver retrace and my 53% on month profit I decide the whole 635k

[shasta]

hope not till I get back on board for once I do hope silver retraces to 31 and AYN back to the mid 5's has gone so hard of late it needs a breather then once back on board it can go to 20c+ LOL I come close to just selling half of my holding but shasta words of silver retrace and my 53% on month profit I decide the whole 635k

Silver will probably hit $US40/oz overnight now!

[denpal]

Very nice breakout!!!! I've been forced to look at the ASX silver miners lately by the obvious growth potential notwithstanding their fairly limited scale, and not just rely on my long-term TSX silver pure-play First Majestic!!(Code AG on the NYSE, FR on the TSX). Having being bitten somewhat previously by the McNeil's under MMN I will stick to SVL and CCU, but anyway let's hope we all make a motza. Percy are you on Etrade yet? You can trade foreign bourse shares there including FR there by signing up for Global Shares activation. I find it odd this last couple of days how the ASX goldies have not responded at all to either the POS/POG or overseas leads on PM shares despite a very nice increase in PM prices in AUD. Sooner or later we'll catch up, we have to.

[shasta]

Very nice breakout!!!! I've been forced to look at the ASX silver miners lately by the obvious growth potential notwithstanding their fairly limited scale, and not just rely on my long-term TSX silver pure-play First Majestic!!(Code AG on the NYSE, FR on the TSX). Having being bitten somewhat previously by the McNeil's under MMN I will stick to SVL and CCU, but anyway let's hope we all make a motza. Percy are you on Etrade yet? You can trade foreign bourse shares there including FR there by signing up for Global Shares activation. I find it odd this last couple of days how the ASX goldies have not responded at all to either the POS/POG or overseas leads on PM shares despite a very nice increase in PM prices in AUD. Sooner or later we'll catch up, we have to.

Well AYN closed at its intraday high of 6.6c cracking the 100m turnover which had been building all week, i suspect theres more going on than just the placement shares being sold at a hefty profit, i expect to see some SSH's shortly

Silver after starting the trading session strong has dipped & currently slightly down for a day, futures look static...

[lawrence]

Topped up today so either its the silver price thats driving this up or someone knows the JORC is ready to be announced very soon either way nice to be on the train

[shasta]

Silver will probably hit $US40/oz overnight now!

I feel a bit better, Silver down $1.47 to $32.07, so the anticipated retrace has come, i expect AYN will drop into the high 5's today

[shasta]

I feel a bit better, Silver down $1.47 to $32.07, so the anticipated retrace has come, i expect AYN will drop into the high 5's today

AYN has had a huge swing today, opened at 7.9c has hit 8.6c & as low as 7.0c during the day, currently @ 7.3c on 200m shares, wow

[soulman]

Maybe one of the director selling his whole stakes in the coy, but he sold for about 6 cents. Other than that, the speculators/daytraders are out today.

[shasta]

Twas on the telly last night with some guy saying it was going to 20c. So in go the retail investors and out go the professionals.

20c would mean a market cap of ~$250m, far to rich given the fundamentals, but lets see how realistic/close it is...

If AYN produced at the higher end of there indicated range of 2m/oz silver with a gross profit margin of $US20/oz, (est cash costs are $A13.50/oz) thats $40m gross profit margin, lets say NPBT $15 -20m, & assume NPAT is $10 -15m, split the difference, lets say $12.5m*

SP @ 20c = M Cap @ ~$250m, with NPAT* @ $12.5m = P/E of 20

With a more realistic P/E of 10 & using the NPAT of $A12.5m gives a M Cap of ~$125m, & a share price closer to 10c

So unless the price of silver rises well above $US35/oz, 20c does seem unrealistic, given i would expect the production to be closer to 1.5m than 2m/oz

AYN @ 7.3c has a current MCap of ~$93m, still cheap in comparison to say CCU

[ob1kinobi]

Hey Shasta et al,

Any views on director Mr Charles Morgan decision to dump 30mil of his shares in the past week. Or am I not reading this right?

Doesn't seem like a particularly good look. He topped up in the beginning of Feb too so he seems a bit of a player.

I've been using IB and it doesn't automatically list ASX anns. Im a bit behind the play unfortunately.

If AYN is soon to be producing he doesn't seem to have much faith in the SP or the CO's future propects

[drillfix]

ob1,

Any direct that is dumping stock after buying some just recently is a complete player.

That is not going to look good for the company and it is not as if its just a couple of thousand shares to tidy up his holdings as 30 Million share would be seen as substantial to say the least.

Last time I never sold when a direct or a son of a director sold (kind of means similar) I lost a sh#t heap of money and chose to believe fairy tales instead of doing what logic dictated.

Good luck with that.

And hey, are you with IB are you, do you use TWS or are you using the web version?

[soulman]

Hey Shasta et al,

Any views on director Mr Charles Morgan decision to dump 30mil of his shares in the past week. Or am I not reading this right?

Doesn't seem like a particularly good look. He topped up in the beginning of Feb too so he seems a bit of a player.

I've been using IB and it doesn't automatically list ASX anns. Im a bit behind the play unfortunately.

If AYN is soon to be producing he doesn't seem to have much faith in the SP or the CO's future propects

He either thinks the SP has run up too high or he load up at 3.5 and happy with more than doubling his money in a few months.

Management trading shares are very common, especially in the specs sector. For one, they are only earning smallish salary, hence, the need to earn some side income.

[ob1kinobi]

Hey DF

I should be able to keep my capital. I just wanted to check my thinking, cause it seems a bit of a rip-off.

Im using TWS, and it def has its goblins as Im sure your aware.

ASX anns on the site would be very helpful.

Good luck with those ALGO's or were you trying to get something else working on that.

[ob1kinobi]

30 mil just seems like a pretty big vol, half his holding.

[drillfix]

Yes Ob1,

TWS is like an old beatup US Battleship that just keeps sailing along with or without bugs. Its funny how they keep trying to improve it, but yet to me I think they need to make it a bit more modular to a traders needs. Meaning have pluggins so you can make it into a speed boat or yacht instead of a battleship heavy weight program.

With regards to ASX anns, I know there is a feature on TWS where by you can get news or media news, but no ASX announcements as you say.

I also run a commsec account which I use for longer term holdings and I run that in parallel with IB so I can reference prices or issues with IB, which have and do present themselves even though not every day or moment.

There is just so many preferences with TWS that anybody moving across from WebIRESS would be baffled by how many actual pre-sets or options there are underneath the battleships bonnet so to speak.

Was trying to more prepare myself with ORDER types as there are some beauties in there I can see being perfect for scenario's I find myself in often.

Its just a case of logging into the SIM account and executing by trial and error these other orders.



Hey, you know what you can do of course regarding your No Announcement problem? Well you simply just run another browser separate from your current browser and have the ASX ann's automated by then being Refreshed.

Should you choose to accept this mission then here is exactly what to do.

Download say FireFox Portable from here: http://portableapps.com/apps/internet/firefox_portable

Then install a plugin ADDON called reloadevery located here: https://addons.mozilla.org/en-us/firefox/addon/reloadevery/

Then,

Add ASX current Anns to your favourites or bookmarks in Firefox: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/todayAnns.do

Once there, then Automate the Reload Every addon to refresh the Announcements on the ASX for you.

Thats is just another suggestion which may aid you the Announcement department.

Anyway, hope that helps :)

Good luck.


ps: Also in firefox, add another Addon in firefox by searching addons for LIVE GOLD which give you precious and base metal prices udated.

[shasta]

30 mil just seems like a pretty big vol, half his holding.

Not a good look, but i agree AYN has got ahead of itself, i didnt think it would run so soon (nor did i think that silver would run so hard)

AYN has 1.3b shares on issue so 30m isnt much & there have been a few days of late with 50m+ turnover, if he didnt sell into strength he would have dragged the share price down on exiting so his timing was quite good.

Nothing to worry about

[shasta]

Big jump today, after a nice steady climb.

Drillfix, similar question to the one I asked about ALK - would you top up at this point as its hit a new high on strong volume (signalling new leg of breakout?), or would you wait on a pullback? I really need to get my head around when to top up on strong running stocks - in the past I always seem to get the first entry right, but the second or subsequent entries are usually just before the stock declines :-(

Up 1.2c to 9.5c just under the intra day high (9.6c) & 90m turnover, will be interesting to see where it closes

Silver closed @ $US38.62/oz

[drillfix]

Big jump today, after a nice steady climb.

Drillfix, similar question to the one I asked about ALK - would you top up at this point as its hit a new high on strong volume (signalling new leg of breakout?), or would you wait on a pullback? I really need to get my head around when to top up on strong running stocks - in the past I always seem to get the first entry right, but the second or subsequent entries are usually just before the stock declines :-(



KW, I think I would probably cut and paste the same answer to be honest.

Dont forget though, check out the SILVER chart that I threw up on the ASX thread early this AM.

This will also play a role in the company doing is rampage type buying frenzy.

So, I would wait and not be buying at todays top, but with Silver rolling away headed towards $40.00 per Oz, I think I would try to buy near the LOW of today or 8.x something, but then I would not be holding on for long. These frenzy buying days are difficult to time unless you have watched it most of the day.


Another point I wish to stress is that take caution with any stock at present until we are past the 5,000+ mark or a break through in direction has been resolved.

Adding to that KW, I would actually choose to buy stocks @ a premium than a bargain knowing the concluded direction of the overall market if a crystal ball was available. Because this way pay 10% more to know your on the right side of a trade in the right market is cheap to buying a bargain which then only for the market to potentially fall back on you in which case, stocks will plummet faster than they rise, which may go down 20-40% loss if your not careful on getting this right (At this near particular point in time, this week or next week pending).

Apologies to you for such a long winded answer mate, yet worth knowing all or most angles of such decisions, if you get my drift.


add/edit

Actually here is the spot silver price chart posted this AM: >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/e2puggjmqc3itnvwp76.png

This is what is driving things atm with certain stocks.

Take a look at PEX as well, not as much as a frenzy but gains to be had nonetheless.

[drillfix]

Big jump today, after a nice steady climb.

Drillfix, similar question to the one I asked about ALK - would you top up at this point as its hit a new high on strong volume (signalling new leg of breakout?), or would you wait on a pullback?


Yes KW again,

Here is another justification of WHY if it were me and why.

Take a look at the daily chart of AYN >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/qqmoml6lgjbqns186c48.png


Done just minutes ago with 15 mins remaining left of market.

See the previous Impulse move drawn with the white line?

Well, the copy and paste of the same line shows you where a Range would be expected to pull back.

Try an entry level of 8.5c at the 76.4% Fib level or depending on the price of silver and the momentum of silver, try the 61.8% Fib as entry if silver is weak.


Usually, if a stock breaks back below its 50% Fib its game over or play a game of cards instead of holding. Stocks that are worthy and the market knows it will bounce off these FIB levels IMO.


Hence the reason, "I myself would wait".

But sometimes the price of silver as does gold, does this to people, they get a "Fever" so to speak :P

Hope that helps anyways, but DYOR.


add/edit yet again :P

Speeding ticket also issued, and some folks seem to like it which the raising price of silver seems to be driving this into a frenzy further.
But also remember the range previously traded, as when silver eventually jitters the sober up party may come crashing down to those FIBs.

[shasta]

Wow AYN closed strongly at 10c, up 1.7c on just under 138m turonover (or 10% of the register)

[JBmurc]

Wow AYN closed strongly at 10c, up 1.7c on just under 138m turonover (or 10% of the register)

Yeah company in the right metal at the right time so few pure silver plays many investor what exposure I know I do

[lawrence]

And here am I being nervous buying at 4 cents.I seem to buy less when I need to buy more,hindsight is a great thing

[shasta]

AYN - ALCYONE STARTS EARLY SILVER PRODUCTION AT TEXAS

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=536707

KEY POINTS
 Re-irrigation of existing silver-rich heaps at the Twin Hills mine, SE Queensland now underway
following completion of Storm Water Dam (SWD) remediation works.
 ~400,000t of leachable material available on the heaps with an average estimated grade of 45g/t
Ag – metallurgical test work indicates that ~45% of the remaining silver can be extracted.
 First silver bars expected May 2011, with first revenue expected in the June 2011 Quarter.
 Twin Hills construction programme on schedule with commissioning for full-scale commercial
silver extraction scheduled to commence in the September Quarter of 2011.
 Strengthening silver price prompts decision to re-optimise Mineral Resource inventory ahead
of final Ore Reserve calculations.

What a time to be coming into production (CCU close behind AYN) ;)

[drillfix]

Wow, your not wrong about that Shasta regarding timing.

Silver as I type is $39.75c which will touch $40.00 before the US weekend or Monday (imo).

Ann just came out at 11:30am so after lunch this could dance (potentially). eye open atm.

[evilroyrule]

i popped my cherry at 10. got me some silver. whoop whoop. no idea how to pay for it. check out hc, they going mad. someone asked ayn to marry them

[lawrence]

Is this the breakout we were waiting for .09 -->11c! seems the graph is pointing towards the right direction problem is [ if it's a problem] where will it take a breather?

[shasta]

Is this the breakout we were waiting for .09 -->11c! seems the graph is pointing towards the right direction problem is [ if it's a problem] where will it take a breather?

Silver closed last night up $1.29 to breach $40/oz & ended up $40.93/oz - i expect AYN & CCU to do well on Monday

[ob1kinobi]

Got my order in, second time round the AYN tree . Last time, didn't make a cent. Bought at 0.68 and sold out at about the same price after it dive bombed!

Now that were in 0.005 cent increments ( is that right?? ) I'm hoping thats unlikely to happen again.

[asc4]

Got my order in too, hope it gets filled, may have to wait, a pullback in the silver price to $40 isn't out of the question. Very bullish on silver and gold, with production so close I want in. Some informative post here. Cheers

[lawrence]

People keep forgetting their Copper & Zinc assets could also impact on their share price. Production could fund these two projects without need to go to the market for more cash

[asc4]

Re-rating beginning? Upgrade due soon if I'm correct, then production in May. They have a large quantity ready to go in stockpiles.

[lawrence]

14 cents close! looks like if volume keeps up it would be nice to close .16 -.17 cents leading into the weekend tomorrow. What happens when an announcement comes out is anybody guess going on what's happening now :)

[ob1kinobi]

Got my order in, second time round the AYN tree . Last time, didn't make a cent. Bought at 0.68 and sold out at about the same price after it dive bombed!

Now that were in 0.005 cent increments ( is that right?? ) I'm hoping thats unlikely to happen again.

Managed to sell my new parcel almost immediately by incorrectly placing my trailing stop!

Doh!

Not sure how that happened, ( thought I set SL well below trading range ) however had to rebuy at a premium.

Note to self, keep eye on the ball

[asc4]

Silver rose again last night and the franfurt close was equvilent to 14c AUD, 15c close today or will it take a breather? I'm out of breath after picking some up up at 11.5c 3 days ago.

[shasta]

Silver rose again last night and the franfurt close was equvilent to 14c AUD, 15c close today or will it take a breather? I'm out of breath after picking some up up at 11.5c 3 days ago.

AYN - Quarterly Activities & Cashflow Report

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=539523

Good run down of the Twin Hills project (+ others), & the next quarterly should show the first silver production

AYN @ $0.125 = MCap ~$164m, with cash ~$9.5m

[evilroyrule]

apparently d and d reporting on 5 silver stocks soon-ish. wld have to think ayn be in the mix.

does that explain sudden jump in volume or just way oversold? spot silver price did nothing today, sp got a wriggle on on good volume.

watch this space (between my ears)

[shasta]

apparently d and d reporting on 5 silver stocks soon-ish. wld have to think ayn be in the mix.

does that explain sudden jump in volume or just way oversold? spot silver price did nothing today, sp got a wriggle on on good volume.

watch this space (between my ears)

AYN - ALCYONE INCREASES TWIN HILLS ORE RESERVE & MINE LIFE

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=541975

Cash costs est @ $A15/oz, certainly helps improve the fundamentals

[asc4]

CCU seems to be much better value to me:

CCU's Wonawinta Project

Production: 12.8 Moz silver over 5 years
Mining method: shallow open pit mining
Cash cost of production: $10.20/Oz (no lead), $6.50/Oz with lead recovery
Total capital expenditure: $32 million
Payback: 2 years, strong cash flows.

Aim to start mining Dec2011.

[shasta]

CCU seems to be much better value to me:

CCU's Wonawinta Project

Production: 12.8 Moz silver over 5 years
Mining method: shallow open pit mining
Cash cost of production: $10.20/Oz (no lead), $6.50/Oz with lead recovery
Total capital expenditure: $32 million
Payback: 2 years, strong cash flows.

Aim to start mining Dec2011.

Good points & AYN's MCap has surpassed CCU's, but AYN will be in production a good 6 months ahead of CCU, even though CCU's cash costs are much less.

Given when i first posted a summary on AYN when it was 4c odd, & its now 12c, might make some sense to take AYN profits & buy into CCU.

AYN has had alot of media attention & there timing with the silver price so strong certainly helped

[asc4]

I sold out of AYN for a quick 20 odd % profit, and moved into CCU, a little early :(. CCU been held back by current Cap raise. Will have results from VTEM, which should give an idea of expanding the resource. I think silver will move higher by years end, but could be in for some more hurt short term, which could mean CCU will be producing after the current short term downturn in silver price.

[shasta]

I sold out of AYN for a quick 20 odd % profit, and moved into CCU, a little early :(. CCU been held back by current Cap raise. Will have results from VTEM, which should give an idea of expanding the resource. I think silver will move higher by years end, but could be in for some more hurt short term, which could mean CCU will be producing after the current short term downturn in silver price.

AYN - Investor Update

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=542017

Bit info about other projects aside from Twin Hills

[JBmurc]

CCU seems to be much better value to me:

CCU's Wonawinta Project

Production: 12.8 Moz silver over 5 years
Mining method: shallow open pit mining
Cash cost of production: $10.20/Oz (no lead), $6.50/Oz with lead recovery
Total capital expenditure: $32 million
Payback: 2 years, strong cash flows.

Aim to start mining Dec2011.

Yeah I agree would like to get a sizable holding as cheap as possible in CCU large overall resource that should grow
still hold GRM a pure micro cap silver&copper&gold play high risk high reward CCU looks the best risk reward for a soon to be producer
how many AYN holders will move to CCU ,,,,,as CCU goes into production a few I'd say once the honeymoon of producing a few months earlier wears off

[lawrence]

Yeah I agree would like to get a sizable holding as cheap as possible in CCU large overall resource that should grow
still hold GRM a pure micro cap silver&copper&gold play high risk high reward CCU looks the best risk reward for a soon to be producer
how many AYN holders will move to CCU ,,,,,as CCU goes into production a few I'd say once the honeymoon of producing a few months earlier wears off

Agree but for me to move to CCU I need to have AYN at least more than +.30c during mining to fund the move,can someone care to say what AYN price might get to during production?

[shasta]

Agree but for me to move to CCU I need to have AYN at least more than +.30c during mining to fund the move,can someone care to say what AYN price might get to during production?

With a Mcap around $150m theres already alot of the production re-rating factored into the share price, as a producer AYN will really be leveraged to the price of silver, so exploration success, increased JORC resources, lower cash costs etc will help the share price, but really the main upside is with the spot price of silver, & perhaps a falling $USD. Should the price of silver reduce below say $30/oz, i'd hope they would have hedging in place to at least get $US30/oz.

If AYN can achieve 1.5m/oz a year (lower end of the 1.5 - 2.0m/oz range) & assuming silver averages $35/oz - costs $15/oz, a gross margin of 20/oz = $30m

If they can achieve say $10m NPAT, thats a P/E around 15 - all rough round numbers but gives an indication that the current share price has alot factored into it.

2 months ago AYN was < 5c, so the easy money has been made, however AYN could hit say 15c on commencement of production & subsequent quarterly showing cash in the bank, especially if AYN gets more media attention.

Personally AYN looks about fair value now, & CCU probably has better short term prospects for share price growth

[lawrence]

Thanks shasta appreciate assessment I also noted their Zinc & Copper isn't attracting any value in the current share price if indeed they are worth anything or they are going to use profits to fund exploration

[asc4]

Fully agree Shasta, the mine life needs to be extended to get it going long term.

[shasta]

Fully agree Shasta, the mine life needs to be extended to get it going long term.

AYN - ALCYONE POURS FIRST SILVER BULLION FROM TEXAS PROJECT

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=545599

Twin Hills construction programme on schedule with commissioning for full-scale commercial silver extraction scheduled to commence in the September Quarter of 2011.

AYN closed up 0.3c to 9.7c (MCap ~$128m, very comparable to CCU)

[asc4]

This Ann was expected, I actually thought it would be sold down on it's release. Ayn is probably a short term buy under 9.5 for me. Ccu is looking sick, like everything else on themarket. Ccu will have a rerating over the next 6 months as they ramp up, they have the cash to get to production which is important. Nice to see silver holding above 30 usd.

[shasta]

This Ann was expected, I actually thought it would be sold down on it's release. Ayn is probably a short term buy under 9.5 for me. Ccu is looking sick, like everything else on themarket. Ccu will have a rerating over the next 6 months as they ramp up, they have the cash to get to production which is important. Nice to see silver holding above 30 usd.

Cant remember what thread Hoop mentioned it on, but Silver hasn't retested support @ $US31/oz yet, would like to see it test it & bounce back with a steadier climb back towards $40/oz, rather than +/- 3 - 5% swings!

[JBmurc]

This Ann was expected, I actually thought it would be sold down on it's release. Ayn is probably a short term buy under 9.5 for me. Ccu is looking sick, like everything else on themarket. Ccu will have a rerating over the next 6 months as they ramp up, they have the cash to get to production which is important. Nice to see silver holding above 30 usd.

Yeah I really like the looks of CCU I really hope to have a good size holding well before production sub 70c is a steal IMHO

[shasta]

AYN - June Quarterly Activities & Cashflow Report

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXM&E=ASX&N=183702

HIGHLIGHTS
 First silver bullion poured from the Texas Silver Project in SE Queensland following re-irrigation of the existing silver rich heaps at the Twin Hills mine
 Successful operation of the pilot-scale Merrill Crowe circuit confirms the viability of the process design circuit for the Texas Project
 Twin Hills construction programme on schedule with commissioning for full-scale commercial extraction to commence in Q3 2011
 Early production enables Alcyone to benefit from the continued strength of the silver price, which remained above A$30/oz during the Quarter
 Re-optimised Twin Hills mine plan delivers an increase in Ore Reserves of 1.42Moz (+30%) to 5.64Moz of recoverable silver (4Mt @ 64g/t Ag)
 Mine life increased to approximately 5 years (including current stockpiles)
 New Mt Gunyan JORC Measured Mineral Resource estimate of 2.3Mt @ 69g/t Ag and 0.08g/t Au, containing 5.2Moz of silver and 6,200oz of gold
 RC drilling contractor engaged for 5,000m programme commencing in mid-August including grade control in the Twin Hills pit and further testing at Silver Spur and Hawker
 Experienced geologist and corporate finance executive Mr Andrew Richards appointed as a Non-Executive Director following the retirement from the Board of Mr Eric de Mori

AYN @ 9.5c = MCap $~125m, Cash @ 30/6/11 = $3m & full quarter production income next month, so should be largely self funding from hereon.

[denpal]

Gidday holders, have got some of these this past week in the mid-9c range. Hope the price action in silver will help re-rate this puppy going forward. First time back in since MMN days.

[shasta]

AYN - ALCYONE SET FOR FULL SILVER MINE COMMISIONING BY END SEPTEMBER

PRODUCTION SET TO INCREASE TO ANNUALISED RATE OF 1.5-2Moz BY YEAR-END

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=556691

KEY POINTS
 Wet commissioning of upgraded Twin Hills process facility on track for end September
 Crushing circuit and plant already nearing nameplate capacity of 150tph (~1Mtpa)
 Crushing plant product sizing 100% less than 4.0 mm, as per design
 New Merrill Crowe silver extraction circuit commissioned and already operating at capacity
 Over 210,000oz of silver produced to date from existing heap leach pads – exceeds 80% of targeted production from existing heap leach pads
 Average silver sale price achieved to date is A$36.85/oz
 Mining scheduled to commence in late September to drive production ramp up to annualised rate of 1.5-2.0Moz per annum by year end
 Exploration and grade control drilling underway with RAB and RC rigs operating at key silver and base metal targets

[shasta]

AYN - Investor Update

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AYN&E=ASX&N=558816

A nice read & despite silver's volatile movements, AYN are a producer & are ramping up production!

[JBmurc]

Alcyone Resources (ASX: AYN) has been granted a trading halt by the ASX pending the release of a proposed financial facility transaction, with the company's shares placed in pre-open.

Alcyone has not elaborated on the transaction any further, with the company currently in a very interesting position.

During the September quarter the company completed the successful wet commissioning of the upgraded Twin Hills processing facility.

Alcyone said that silver production exceeded expectations with more than 270,000 ounces extracted to date from existing leach pads, and production of 220,000 ounces.

The company will look to ramp up silver production in the future to over 1.5 million ounces.

The trading halt will be in effect until an announcement is made to the market or no later than the start of trading on Tuesday, November 22.

[JBmurc]

Buying more AYN today @8.2c looking cheap with ramped up 1.5moz p.a production underway ,an increase in reserves to 7yrs+ is also planned in the short term

[JBmurc]

Silver producer Alcyone Resources has been forced to cut the size and price of a planned $4 million placement because of the plunging silver price and lower investor demand.

The company will reduce the size of the placement to $3.5 million and the price of shares issued under the raising from 5.3 cents to 4.8 cents.

Alcyone cited "recent adverse conditions and instability in global financial markets" for the revised raising through Casimir Capital.

Alcyone's chairman Charles Morgan has applied for $500,000 worth of shares in the placement.

The company will also offer retail shareholders the chance to apply for up to $15,000 worth of new shares each to raise a further $3 million in a share purchase plan.

Alcyone will use the funds to expedite commissioning of its Leach Pad 4 at its Twin Hills heap leach silver mine in Queensland, fund connection to the State's electricity grid and accelerate exploration at the wider Texas silver project.

Alcyone's managing director Andrew King described the past week as extremely turbulent and difficult for global equity and commodity markets.

"The funds raised will support our production and operational ramp-up, which is continuing to gather momentum and which will ensure that Alcyone is in future largely insulated from the sort of market shocks we've seen over the past week," he said.

Alcyone shares were off 0.3 cents, or 6.38 per cent, to 4.4 cents at 1

[JBmurc]

yeah many years ago MMN trade at a 200mill market cap silver was $14oz AYN is currently 38mill Silver price $23.40

my silver Holdings -SVL,ARDO

---fact----each cruise missile contains 4 kg of silver.


And now with Silver at 20.30oz USD all the known pure silver focused miners/explorers I once invested in have or are close to admin....
like I said awhile ago buying silver bullion at less than cost has got to be a steal .....the only known producers of Silver that are not bleeding cash are also producing major amounts of other metals .....No one can say silver is expensive or even at fair value when from my study latest average cost per oz to extract on av. are now in the mid 20's USD per oz
I for one will be adding to my Bullion position