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winner69
09-01-2010, 03:45 PM
Intersting chart from chartoftheday.com ... it shows the increase in nonfarm jobs by decade .... nonfarm payrolls being a good indicator of the health of the US economy

No wonder the US is stuffed and no doubt this will will (and already has) reflect in most US eqitiy prices

Stuff all new jobs created in the last 10 years .... and the population has risen by 10% in the same period

Wonder the 2010's will bring - probably negative if the depression continues in US

Some might say if output is the same productivity has risen, yeah right

Steve
09-01-2010, 06:59 PM
This would suggest that 2009 has been a false rally then?

snackpack
10-01-2010, 07:17 AM
Would the chart be simply reflecting the modern concept of outsourcing manufacturing and would therefore apply to many countries, NZ included?

I recall reading somewhere that the US service industries are the backbone of the US domestic economy and the bulk of GDP is raised domestically too.

winner69
10-01-2010, 04:49 PM
Would the chart be simply reflecting the modern concept of outsourcing manufacturing and would therefore apply to many countries, NZ included?

I recall reading somewhere that the US service industries are the backbone of the US domestic economy and the bulk of GDP is raised domestically too.


True - thats why the US (economy) is often called the land of marketers and burger-flippers

No job growth no matter what the reason is not good for economic growth .... esp when a lot of those jobs used to belong to people who actually made stuff

The US economy depends on continuous expansion of housing construction and financing of all types.The Feds job is orchestrate the flow between US, OPEC and China. OPEX supplies oil which allows the US to build houses, which increases the money supply, which allows the US to buy ever cheaper manufactured stuff (junk) from China, and more oil from OPEC. The profits are dumped back into the US where they became houses on lower mortgage rates rates enabling the cycle to be repeated

Thats how it worked but it now broken as more and more jobs are lost and more and more people lose their houses

And they don't have a new model to replace the broken one.

Mind you there a re some similarities between NZ and the US economies but as long as the rest of world see us part of Australia (ie we have a commodity currency) we'll be right

snackpack
10-01-2010, 05:48 PM
Yes, it is an interesting puzzle. I recall talking to an Hispanic woman a few years back where she was talking about the huge amount of illegal workers in the US and how they were being victimised for doing jobs that Yanks would not do. Perhaps there is a culture where certain jobs are beneath what an American would consider doing. I only went there once for a few days and the vast majority of people spoke Spanish (I am sure I was in the US!). I might have to read Gareth Morgans book about his bike tour through the States to get more insight.

I guess the US could export more weaponry as it is probably a good earner; mind you there is good international competition in these items.

Hoop
11-01-2010, 09:54 AM
And when they get re-hired - the wages are less ...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/For-the-unemployed-new-job-apf-669541738.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

The US isn't spreading enough around ... to much, goes to too few and the middle class shrinks, taking the economy with it ...

... Wonder how long before we hear crys from americans: "Bring back G.W. - we need another war..."



An interesting article of the 10 best known examples of Governments (Countries) that went bankrupt (many were Super powers at the time). (http://www.billshrink.com/blog/10-governments-that-went-bankrupt/)
Well worth the 5 minute read

Examples from that article:

Spain (A super power at that time) quote... "It should be noted that Spanish King Phillip II “had to declare four state bankruptcies” during his time on the throne: 1557, 1560, 1575 and 1596".

In modern times

Quote, "Germany was not the only country to go bankrupt after World War II. Following suit, Great Britain demonstrated that even winning a war is accompanied by significant losses."

Great Britain Quote..."Indeed, a New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/28/business/worldbusiness/28iht-nazi.4042453.html) article reported in 2006 that the UK was only then making its final payment on $4.34 billion in loans extended by the U.S. all the way back in 1945. To put that sum in perspective, $4.34 billion in 1945 is roughly equivalent to $140 billion today, a sum that was “double the size of the British economy at the time.”

France was the most fascinating... Quote.."France (along with England) was one of the world’s foremost superpowers. Indeed, it was largely France’s exorbitant financial support for the American War of Independence that made the country “so deeply in debt as to be effectively bankrupt” in the late 1700’s, according to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_French_Revolution#Debt)."

From reading this article I see a common theme...Countries especially superpowers poking their noses into other countries problems seems to be a bad idea.

USA next to be added to the list:confused::confused:

rpcas
11-01-2010, 11:37 AM
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rpcas
11-01-2010, 11:46 AM
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snackpack
11-01-2010, 08:47 PM
Breaking down US exports for 2008 (unsure of 2009) we have the main earners as follows:

TRADE SPOTLIGHT: RELEASE OF ANNUAL 2008 FIGURES (www.trade.gov)
␣ The largest export markets for U.S. goods in 2008 (with percent increase over 2007) were Canada ($261.4 billion, up 5.0%), Mexico ($151.5 billion, up 11.4%), China ($71.5 billion, up 9.5%), Japan ($66.6 billion, up 6.2%), and Germany ($54.7 billion, up 10.2%).
␣ Capital goods represent the largest goods export category (end-use) for the U.S. with $469.5 billion worth of exports in 2008. The U.S. trade surplus in capital goods rose $12.8 billion to reach $15.7 billion in 2008, up from a surplus of $2.9 billion in 2007.
␣ The top growth categories for capital goods products in 2008 were medicinal equipment (up $3.3 billion), materials handling equipment (up $2.7 billion), industrial engines (up $2.7 billion), telecommunications equipment (up $2.6 billion), and civilian aircraft engines (up $2.5 billion).
␣ Industrial supplies the largest growth category in dollar value represented $387.3 billion of U.S. exports in 2008, up $70.9 billion (or 22.4 percent) from 2007.
␣ The top growth categories for industrial supplies in 2008 were fuel oil (up $19.3 billion), other petroleum products (up $8.5 billion), nonmonetary gold (up $5.4 billion), chemicals-fertilizers (up $4.5 billion), and steelmaking materials (up $4.3 billion).
␣ Foods, feeds, and beverages represented $108.4 billion of U.S. exports in 2008, and was the second largest export growth category (end-use) for the U.S., with exports rising $24.2 billion (or 28.7 percent) over 2007. The U.S. trade surplus in foods, feeds, and beverages rose $16.8 billion to reach $19.4 billion in 2008, up from a surplus of $2.6 billion in 2007.
␣ The top growth categories for foods, feeds, and beverages in 2008 were soybeans (up $5.6 billion), meat and poultry (up $3.7 billion), corn (up $3.4 billion), and wheat (up $3.0 billion).
␣ U.S. services exports totaled $551.6 billion in 2008, up $54.4 billion (or 10.9 percent) from 2007. This rise in exports helped the U.S. to have a record trade surplus in services at $144.1 billion, up $24.9 billion (or 20.9 percent) from 2007.
␣ The top services export categories were other private services, which includes items such as business, professional and technical services, insurance services, and financial services ($241.0 billion), travel ($111.5 billion), royalties and license fees ($91.1 billion), other transportation ($60.2 billion), passenger fares ($31.4 billion), and government services ($16.3 billion).


Exports of services, foods, feeds and beverages seemed to be holding up the States in 2008. Trade to China is only 12% of total large export receipts to countries.

rpcas
13-01-2010, 09:15 AM
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Hoop
13-01-2010, 10:13 AM
How will it affect the stock market though? That is the real question. Remember what happens on Wall Street doesn't always resemble what happens on Main Street - and as i pointed out, companies on the DJIA now source over half their revenue internationally in a growing global market....

Some ammunition for the S&P500 Permabears

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/01/hours-of-labor-needed-to-buy-spx-crb-gold/

Sometimes it helps to look at indexes from different perspectives to form a complete picture.
S&P500 chart :eek::(:p

Lego_Man
13-01-2010, 10:42 AM
We still havent closed the Lehman gap...

Lego_Man
13-01-2010, 11:27 AM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10619582&pnum=0

Seems Alan is bullish on the US economy. I tend to agree with him.

Do you know him?

Footsie
13-01-2010, 12:15 PM
The US could well be the the surprise this year.

Dr_Who
13-01-2010, 03:34 PM
The US could well be the the surprise this year.

How so? Please enlighten us.

winner69
15-01-2010, 01:12 PM
The US could well be the the surprise this year.


No doubt tje US could surprise this year ... the world economies are starting to turn and the US a bit of a laggard

However as the chart below shows the markets (as usual) are well ahead of the play ..... and any sustained economic recovery from this point on might not mean bumper times on the worlds equity markets

yogi-in-oz
10-03-2010, 03:04 AM
:)

Hi folks,

..... expecting the European mess to continue throughout
2010, with some particularly nasty stuff, around:

... 03082010
... 10082010 (currencies ... UK???)
... 13-31082010 (a very critical period for Europe)
... September 2010 ..... 24-27092010
and October ... more negative news, about 04102010 ...

.... and, if you think it is over in USA ... just wait,
until December 2010 and again, in March-April 2011 .....
some seriously negative stuff expected, during those
periods, unfortunately ..... (:

have a great day

paul

:)

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