MFT - Mainfreight. Global Freight & Logistics

[scamper]

Hello GT et al.
i notice that your query on 1 oct, and my response the next day, mark the lowest lows in about a year!
in the last two weeks, a number of TA indicators have taken a sharp upturn: relative strength, stochastics, moving average convergence/divergence, the price has poked through the 30-day MA on reasonable volume, and if today's 707 holds, it will have nudged through the short-term downtrend, but is still within the year-long downer.

at the point in the chart, a buy would still be considered risky, but do-able for someone with sharp eyes and strong nerves.
scamper's a holder. cheers.

[Viking]

Looks like Scamper's risk is pay off steadily~ these last couple of days.

Dsic: Viking's a holder, too.

[scamper]

Yes, and in the last two weeks, all sorts of TA indicators have become quietly positive after the great dump at the end of september.
Relative strength, stochastics, macd, bollinger bands, and even the on-balance-volume are looking good.
however, the ytd downtrend is not confirmed as broken until a close above ~740. soooo, the charts indicate a buying time is at hand depending on one's risk tolerance.
Best wishes.

[Viking]

Mosting of the shipping company in the world is experience profit boom in the last couple of years. Our parent company (a shipping giant) has been paying the equivelent of 10-12 months bonus to its employees for the last 2 years (so jelous of them).There are simply not enough vessles out there to carry all the cargo at the moment. Wonder if that would have an on-flow effect towards MFT?

[pickle_master]

Whats happened to MFT? My wife has a small long-term holding and I haven't really been following, but see that it has been trending down for the last 9 mths since its top of ~$8 last April . Is there something that I have missed?
thks
PM

[limegreen]

Whats happened to MFT? My wife has a small long-term holding and I haven't really been following, but see that it has been trending down for the last 9 mths since its top of ~$8 last April . Is there something that I have missed?
thks
PM

I think the SP just raced a little bit ahead of itself. As far as I'm aware it's still a great stock, but the price maybe got a bit inflated. I'm not sure whether it's currently oversold or still on its way back toward fair value, however.

[pickle_master]

thanks limegreen. Yeah, might just stick it out and 'tuck away'. Hopefully next time I have a look it won't be a dollar ;)

This thread seems pretty quite...

[Snow Leopard]

Third quarter result (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MFT&E=NZSE&N=160859) is out.

Disc: :)

[Phaedrus]

The MFT chart gave many clear Sell signals when MFT's long uptrend ended. The subsequent downtrend has illustrated the folly of blindly "buying and holding" stocks - even good ones. Those that ignored the fact that the uptrend had ended have given some of their gains back to the market and had money tied up going nowhere for over a year.

On 12/2/08 MFT gave a Buy signal at $5.94 (light green arrow) when the confirmed trendline was broken. To my mind, this signal should have been ignored for the following reasons :-
(1) No confirmation from other indicators.
(2) No volume increase.
(3) Below previous resistance at $6.00 (round figure - remember?)
(4) You would be buying into a downtrend.

This morning, MFT trades have been going through at around $6.05. This has triggered another Buy signal (dark green arrow) :-
(1) Break above resistance at $6.00.
(2) Uptrend begins.

Conservative investors might like to wait for confirmation from a break of the OBV trendline before buying.

The really conservative might like to wait for the longterm QStick indicator to trigger a buy signal.

The chart shows the latest price of $6.05 - I'm sure you all realise that the Close may well be different. If it is below $6.00, this post is rendered irrelevant, but at least I can't be accused of posting signals in "hindsight"!!!!!!

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/MFT222.gif

[Snow Leopard]

...but at least I can't be accused of posting signals in "hindsight"!!!!!!

Hah! but you are not giving us an un-equivocal buy either with your 'conservative investors' remarks.

The obvious trick here is buy in with one of those wonderful 5% stops to guarantee our profits :rolleyes:

Fundamentally I would say that this a reasonably priced stock with good medium to long-term upside, but in the current climate I would be wary of buying it.
See, even us fundies can sit on the fence. :)

regards
Paper Tiger

[Phaedrus]

Just telling it how it is, PT. Basic Dow theory dictates that you can't have an "unequivocal buy" recommendation in the absence of confirmation from volume increase or other indicators as mentioned.

You guys are hard to please - I get stick for "early" posts and I get stick for "late" posts! I can't win!

PT's reference to the use of a 5% stoploss is probably tongue-in-cheek, but even that would be better than no exit strategy at all - and of course you can do a lot better than using a simple fixed percentage. Stocks vary tremendously in their volatility and to use the same value stoploss for all is misguided. A more logical approach is to place your stop just beneath recent support. I have written more about this topic here, (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/archives/2001/06/msg00554.shtml) should anyone be interested.

[macduffy]

Thanks for drawing attention to your article, Phaedrus.

It took me many years of FA investing to latch on to the use of Technical Analysis. Even now, I'm no expert and employ only basic TA techniques but the use of stop-losses based on support levels is a must.
The point was well worth re-visiting!

;)

[COLIN]

You're a genius, Phaedrus! Time now for even the more conservative of us to take the plunge?

[COLIN]

You're a genius, Phaedrus! Time now for even the more conservative of us to take the plunge?

Surely now?

[Phaedrus]

Colin, very conservative investors would not be in this market at all. They would have cashed up last November and would still be out.
Here is an update of the February chart posted above. You can see that the QStick has now triggered a buy signal as did the OBV trendline break back in February. Do these now constitute the "unequivocal" buy signal that Paper Tiger is demanding? No they don't - here's why.

The NZ market as a whole is weak and globally this is a time for great caution. Markets might have a long way yet to fall.
The OBV broke its trendline by just tracking sideways, without any clear rise. Volume is NOT flowing into MFT. All this recent activity has been on low (and falling) volume. Without volume, any short-term rises will remain just that.
Since peaking in November 2006, MFT has been in a "longterm" downtrend. You can see that it is still making lower highs and lower lows - it is still in a downtrend.

These are times of opportunity though, and good MFT entries can be made, but these need to be carefully monitored. To treat them as "buy, hold and forget" (unequivocal!) positions would be foolish.

Fast oscillators can be used for monitoring stocks at times like this. The Williams'%R indicator (inset) is a good example. This oscillator gives a Buy signal when it rises above the green "OverSold" line, and a Sell signal when it breaks below the red "Overbought" level. This indicator would currently have you holding MFT, which, while technically "overbought" is still well clear of triggering a Sell.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/MFT416.gif

[COLIN]

Once again you have saved me from myself, and I will stay away from MFT for the time being. Many thanks for the time, effort and patience you display towards those of us who are not au fait with the more advanced concepts involved in charting. (The charts I use were left behind on HMS Endeavour by Joseph Banks!)
Yes, I wish I had ditched virtually all of my various holdings in November last, but I only offloaded a few that I considered were heading into the abyss. I have paid the price for not being more ruthless at the time but am slowly recovering lost capital - for instance by paying more attention to oils and minerals, both here and in Australia, as well as some "Special Situations." (NZO is an essential play for anyone wanting to enjoy the presence of some light in the darkness of the abyss.)

On the general question of when we may expect the turnround in the global equity markets to occur, I was encouraged to read the following statements tonight in the latest Annual Report by the fund manager for the Foreign & Colonial Investment Trust (which by the way was founded in 1868 as the world's first ever investment trust, is now one of the largest global growth trusts, has had an increase in dividend every year for the past 37 years, and its NAV total return has beaten the weighted average of its close peer group over one, five, and ten years):
"Short of a significant further deterioration in the economic fundamentals, we believe that equity markets are looking more attractive than at any time in the last five years. WE PLAN TO INCREASE GEARING THIS YEAR TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECOVERY IN SHARE PRICES WHICH WE EXPECT TO OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF 2008"
Admittedly there is a proviso there, and the comments are all of little interest to TA investors, but I take more than a little heart from this statement - enough heart to prevent me from ditching the likes of my base longer-term holdings such as FBU, EBO and IFT holdings at this late stage.

[Snow Leopard]

Full Year Out (http://http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MFT&E=NZSE&N=165374)
As a company they just keep on moving. :)

[Steve]

Full Year Out (http://http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MFT&E=NZSE&N=165374)
As a company they just keep on moving. :)

Freight Company...Moving...

Good on ya, PT! :rolleyes:

[COLIN]

I put in a buy order this morning, at 685, but missed by a mile.
Phaedrus, you're supposed to give us a pre-warning!

[Snow Leopard]

Latest probably acquisition announced (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MFT&E=NZSE&N=165864).

Currently back in favour with the market but at $7.20 a throw (or even $6.85) it is over my buy price.

Two tigers escape from Auckland Zoo and are crossing Western Springs Gardens, one turns to the other and asks "It is a lovely sunny sunday afternoon, why is it so empty?".

[The Great Gold Guru]

Bgt today at 530 ... seems a decent discount from 6mths ago. Long term future looks good. Beats paying $7+ !!

[scamper]

i don't understand!! the price was about 650 cps at the end of the full year, since then a 9.5% increase, and today the price is 428 cps...

"Financial result for the six months ended September 2008 (Unaudited)
The Mainfreight Group is pleased to report a net profit (before non-recurring
items) of $17.22 million for the first six months of the 2009 financial year.
This represents a $1.49 million or 9.5% increase when compared to the same
period last year.

"Consolidated sales revenues for the period were $625.02 million compared to
$383.33 million, an increase of 63.0%. Excluding foreign exchange
adjustments, the increase is 59.4%.

"EBITDA performance improved to $35.36 million from the prior year's result of
$28.72 million for the same period; an increase of 23.1%. Excluding foreign
exchange adjustments, the increase is 21.3%.

"Sales revenue improvements were achieved in all businesses, in all countries.
The upturn seen in our operations in the United States of America reflects
the contributions of the newly acquired business of Mainfreight USA, and the
ongoing improvements being achieved by CaroTrans.

"EBITDA results also showed continued strength with improved performances from
our New Zealand Domestic operations, Australian International and all
divisions in the United States.

"Dividend
The Directors of Mainfreight have approved an increase in the interim
dividend from 8.0 cents per share to 8.5 cents per share.

"This dividend will be fully imputed and will be paid on 12 December 2008,
with books closing on 5 December 2008. A supplementary dividend will be paid
to non-resident shareholders."

sooo, the announcement of an increase in div is met with a 0.9% decrease in shareprice, and that is just today, presumable in knowledge of the above news.
or maybe, someone is just desperate for some cash...

[Snow Leopard]

It is a different world now, scamper.

The irrational exuberance that saw $8 for this one a couple of years ago has long gone we now have the fear that things will only get worse.

Also 10% growth is only moderate you know, and below the stated long term target of 15% pa.

In the current climate no price is too low but when those that must have all worried themselves into an early grave and out of the market then the share price will once more start trucking in the same direction as the company.

Till then
regards
Paper Tiger

DISC: MFT Shareholder

[ratkin]

They seemed reasonbly confident about the outlook going forward , well cautious but at least they were not banging on about severe market headwinds

[Hoop]

Having sold last year..bought in and sold during a bear market rally this year all for an overall sell price average of $7.00 .
Now seeing a bigger and better company and still increasing their profits during tough times... and this growth company is at a PE of 10 .........

Temptation too great...bought back in today.

[SueJ]

Does anyone know what MFT dividends for this year are likely to be? They pay out in July and December, but I haven't been able to find any statement about how much in the 19/02/09 results - or on the website, which is flashy but uninformative.

[Snow Leopard]

2007-2008 Half year 8.0cps (http://www.mainfreight.com/global/NewsItem.aspx?NewsID=352)

2007-2008 Full Year 10.0cps (http://www.mainfreight.com/global/NewsItem.aspx?NewsID=356)

2008-2009 Half year 8.5cps (http://www.mainfreight.com/global/NewsItem.aspx?NewsID=362)

2008-2009 Full Year. Your guess is as good as any tigers :eek:

regards
Paper Tiger

[Hoop]

Having sold last year..bought in and sold during a bear market rally this year all for an overall sell price average of $7.00 .
Now seeing a bigger and better company and still increasing their profits during tough times... and this growth company is at a PE of 10 .........

Temptation too great...bought back in today.

Update for those interested ...bought in gave in to temption at that time of posting av 427c.. market kicked me out for a 7% loss in beginning of Feb 2009 at 400c. (should've sold when MA 30* crossed (470c) but didn't) That 7% loss is less however as I got a 8.5c dividend..so nearer 5% loss.

Bought in again between 380c and 395c (av 394c) at the MA 30* cross in Mid -March so far so good this time around ...up +15.5%.

Hard to not have this quality stock in ones portfolio.


*From chart history The MA 30 indicator seems to work well for this stock.

[Phaedrus]

*From chart history the MA 30 indicator seems to work well for this stock. It might appear that way for short time periods, Hoop, but over the long haul, such a short ma gives very poor results. Backtesting shareprice data since 1996 tells us that trading MFT using a 30 day ma would have resulted in an average gain of 3.7% pa. It would have triggered 136 entries of which just 31 were profitable. Simply buying and holding over the same period gave an average of 34% profit pa.

It is hard to beat the simple basic TA shown in this chart. You can see that the broken OBV trendline was first to trigger a buy signal, followed a few days later by a break of the well-confirmed trendline. While this signal happened to coincide with a 30ma crossover, note how the new (confirmed) trendline is much closer to the price action and could well give a more timely exit signal because of this.

There is simply nowhere else that any of the 3 confirmed trendlines shown here could have been drawn. It would be easy to add a raft of other indicators, but why bother? Often less is more.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/MFT54.gif

This chart includes today's latest price, but of course the Close may be different.

[Hoop]

[quote=Phaedrus;253690]It might appear that way for short time periods, Hoop, but over the long haul, such a short ma gives very poor results. Backtesting shareprice data since 1996 tells us that trading MFT using a 30 day ma would have resulted in an average gain of 3.7% pa. It would have triggered 136 entries of which just 31 were profitable. Simply buying and holding over the same period gave an average of 34% profit pa.

It is hard to beat the simple basic TA shown in this chart. You can see that the broken OBV trendline was first to trigger a buy signal, followed a few days later by a break of the well-confirmed trendline. While this signal happened to coincide with a 30ma crossover, note how the new (confirmed) trendline is much closer to the price action and could well give a more timely exit signal because of this.

There is simply nowhere else that any of the 3 confirmed trendlines shown here could have been drawn. It would be easy to add a raft of other indicators, but why bother? Often less is more. [quote]

Phaedrus yes agree that 30ma can give poor resuts and too many people rely on it as a good indicator (possibly because it is on nearly every free chart available).
Agree simple can be better on a well behaved chart such as MFT
Surprised about your 30ma figures overall dated back to 1996....yes rather low and a bad indicator used in isolation.

However:) ....my quote
*From chart history The MA 30 indicator seems to work well for this stock.
my term "history" I used was a 3yr graph ...ok not exactly total history ...but in my defense probably a better worded phase should have been e.g..*From 2006 -2009 chart history The MA 30 indicator seems to work well for this stock.

This is what I observed
I kept it very simple as it was a casual visual glance on a very basic chart.
I have attached that chart with my amateur paint (apologies;) sadly not an artist) to verify my argument.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/MFTma3005052009.gif





green is 30ma cross to buy
Red is 30ma cross to sell
brokeage fees are ignored
prices approximate only..and based on theory..in practice buying and selling at the ideal prices may not be possible.



Lets analyse this 30ma crossovers a little deeper

Theoretical purchase of 1000 shares in May 2006 Orginal outlay $4600

Trade 1 460 - 780 = = +320c/share.......$ 3200 profit +69%
At end of trade 1 capital gone from $4600 to $7800
__________________________________________________ __________________
Line is drawn here .. all trades from below this line happens within a severe Bear Market Cycle Market cycle.
__________________________________________________ ___________________
Purchased 1068 shares outlay $7800 at beginning of Trade 2

Trade 2 730 - 730 = zero........................zero profit
Trade 3 720 - 740 = +20c/share..............$217
Trade 4 700 - 720 = +20c/share..............$229
Trade 5 600 - 610 = +10c/share..............$137
Trade 6 610 - 700 = +90c/share.............$1237
Trade 7 650 - 700 = +50c/share............. $740
Trade 8 400 - 460 = +60c/share.............$1554
Trade 9 370 - ??? With the accumulated money of $11914 the investor has bought 3220 shares at $3.70 Unrealised capital as of now today ($4.59) is $14780

Using 30ma only for the last 3 years on the MFT chart original purchase of 1000 shares outlay $4600
At the end of trade 1 (in a bull market) exit $7800 A tidy profit of 69%

Now the tricky part we enter a Bear market cycle where we see the MFT share price gets a severe hiding from 810c high down to a low 340c. A buy and never sell long term investor takes a hiding ..big time.
The ma30 investor starts off at trade 2 with the $7800 and buys 1068 shares
After each trade the investor reinvests all the gains so its accumulating capital.

At the end of trade 8 that $7800 has turned into $14780... +89% profit during a Bear market cycle on a share with had lost nearly 2/3's of its share value ( 810c high to 340c low).... Damn good eh

[buns]

This has been dropping consistently for a while now. Especially this week, following the negative article in the Sunday Star?

Most people still have MFT valued mid to High 5's. I was keen at 5, now they have dropped well well below that.

Comments on - How much further this drop will carry on? If those brokers are dreaming with 5.50+ valuations? In general - Any good reason not to buy MFT right now??

[Phaedrus]

Most people still have MFT valued mid to High 5's. I was keen at 5, now they have dropped well well below that. Fundamentally, then, for most people, MFT must be a Buy. For them it represents value.


How much further will this drop carry on? No one can say. MFT has previously found support at $3.96 and $3.30 - this may happen again.


Are those brokers dreaming with their $5.50+ valuations? To some extent, all valuations are dreaming, Buns, in that they attempt to calculate what a stock is theoretically "worth" - what it ought to sell for. The market sets their real value. Something is only worth what you can sell it for.


Any good reason not to buy MFT right now?? Yes. The sharprice is falling. No-one knows how far it will fall. Why not wait?

MFT has nice tidy trends and performs very well with TA. You can see from the attached chart how the On Balance Volume indicator gave good Buy and Sell signals that preceded those derived from price trendline breaks. Volume changes generally precede price changes, so the OBV is usually a leading indicator.

You sound like a staunch fundamentalist, Buns, but I'm sure you can see the value in a nice clear simple chart like this one. (Green arrows mark Buy signals, Red arrows mark Sell signals)

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/MFT610.gif

[warthog]

You sound like a staunch fundamentalist, Buns, but I'm sure you can see the value in a nice clear simple chart like this one. (Green arrows mark Buy signals, Red arrows mark Sell signals)

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/MFT610.gif

Just a quick question Phaedrus:

On both the OBV and price charts you posted for MFT, the price touched and in the case of OBV seemed to go below your green trendline. In theory this should have had you selling out at these points yet your graphs imply you stuck with the trade.

The hog wondered if you had any thoughts you could share about when to get out of or into a trade when the relevant trendline is touched or breached.

[Phaedrus]

The Hog has the eyesight of a hawk! Maybe his screen is running at a higher resolution than mine. Either way, I'm impressed. I have redrawn the OBV trendline with infinite care. It should never have crossed (even slightly) at the point you noticed, because that was what it was being set to. I have noticed that sometimes points can jump a pixel either way when I reduce the chart size for posting - maybe that is what happened here. Maybe my sight is failing. I'll shift my chair closer to the screen. Lucky it is LCD otherwise the radiation would likely see me off.

Re the price touching the trendline - that would never be taken as a sell signal. It is, in fact, confirming the trendline. You can easily see that all 3 points of the price trendline are perfectly in line. With trendline breaks of any sort, you want a clear, obvious break. Some people specifically wait for the trendline to be penetrated by a certain percentage before acting. Others only act when the trendline has been broken for 2 consecutive days. If in any doubt at all, my preference is to bring in another indicator.

[warthog]

The Hog has the eyesight of a hawk!

Thanks Phaerus. The hog is most appreciative of your infinite care. As expected but looking for confirmations of the hog's assumptions as you do your trendlines.

[Phaedrus]

Don't worry about my red "Sell" arrow, JK - it was way back in May and has no bearing on whether you should buy MFT now or not. Let's rephrase your post....

"For any of those whom are foolish enough to buy a downtrending stock on a falling OBV, a 10 cent dividend will be paid this month with an ex date of 17 July."

Question :- How much do you think MFT will drop when it goes ex? Maybe 10 cents? 2.5% ?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/MFT72.gif

[ratkin]

12th of june looked fairly significant , what happened then?

[Phaedrus]

Don't worry about respect, YK! "Is it safe to say some support should be expected at the $4.05ish level?" Just change the should to could. It is either still there or it is not. We don't really know until it is tested.

"DB charts don't offer OBV. Is there a formula so RSI can be converted to OBV" No. There cannot be, because volume does not come into the RSI calculation at all. You can get access to OBV on BigCharts.

"RSI has been increasing for 2 weeks?" I don't think so. The RSI has been tracking the price ever since the Bearish divergence back in early May. See how the March Bullish divergence was also an excellent signal.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/MFT72b.gif

[Phaedrus]

12th of june looked fairly significant, what happened then?It would appear to be a big player getting out.

[winner69]

Ever so tantalising close to a Golden Cross a week or so ago .... that 50MA line getting away from the 200MA line not good

I'm hooked on these Golden Cross things

[scamper]

dear winner and sir P.
in spite of devoted reading of this forum, i seem to have missed the education sessions on Golden Crosses. Please could you help
Your ever humble puppy, scamper.

[Hoop]

dear winner and sir P.
in spite of devoted reading of this forum, i seem to have missed the education sessions on Golden Crosses. Please could you help
Your ever humble puppy, scamper.

Scamper....you can blame Macduffy;);):) on bringing up the Golden Cross subject on the DOW thread 24-06-2009 Post #479 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6114&page=32) There was another page of discussion after his post.

Enjoy

[Hoop]

Ever so tantalising close to a Golden Cross a week or so ago .... that 50MA line getting away from the 200MA line not good

I'm hooked on these Golden Cross things

Hey Guys a silver cross happened about 6 weeks ago. Hows that grab ya :D

[Hoop]

Looks like I lose my dividend virginity today. In fact I decided to do a bit of a top up today @ 4.10 which brought my average down to 4.22.

Still a bit high but thats ok for now. Solid company with ample growth. It wont be to long and they will also be granting me with one nice hangover after my divi turns up. :cool:

Yankiwi...It sounds like you have been seduced by the dark side. Did you average down (an investment no no in a downtrending stock) just for the 10c Dividend ??


You quoted my post and an update on that post is that I sold nearly all on the MA30 cross and the sudden other indicators sell signals on the 28th of May/ early June for between $4.50 and $4.45 when they released a downbeat forecast with their Full year report.. I booked a 15% profit for those 10 weeks I had MFT

Yes a good company, good management, but the time to invest back in is not yet for me ...From where I sit the Technicals still look bad... OBV is still falling 7 weeks after the forecast announcement..... Phaedrus may not be happy with you especially after posting his TA indicator charts.

Some good news for you...I occasionally go through the Avalon Dr Mainfreight in Hamilton..the place seemed emptier and lacked activity during the Autumn months but was surprised last week when I went in to get some firewood pallets, the place was full again and busy..a good sign... eh.

[Hoop]

Yes Hoop, the dark side did win out in my decission making this time, and it's looking at this point it was the right choice. The s/p ex dividend has gone from 4.00 to 4.40 and there's talk of letting them put more freight on each truck. On another note, it seems as though heaps of household insulation will be moving all around the country and someone has got to be moving it!

There hasn't been alot of volume in the recent rise, but I am quite happy holding for the short/medium term. :D

Well timed Yankiwi...good on ya.... your early entry was too much risk for my discipline...but hey, we all have different investment strategies and if they all work who cares :)

The buy signals for me came in last Thursday (23rd) so I bought back in Av $4.30 ...and for good measure I bought some more this morning at $4.39.

Its amazing isn't it.... when I posted 10 days ago the TA looked like dog tucker and I wasn't interested at all...5 days after that post, I'm in and today accumulating further.

[Hoop]

Interesting article in the NBR this morning (http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/bridges-not-50-tonne-spec-106516?headsup=1)

Bridges not up to 50-tonne spec

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote ...."...............It could be years before transport operators are able to take advantage of a rule change allowing them to increase load weight limits.........................

..............Mr Joyce was expected to confirm the rule change later this year, boosting the weight limit from 44-tonnes to a maximum of 53-tonnes for some trucks on specific routes.
Permits would be written for operators covering a specific route, a little like airlines filing a flight plan. Any bridges on a proposed route not able to safely carry 53 tonnes, would likely lead to a permit refusal.
And, with more than 300 bridges identified in the NZTA study as requiring work worth an estimated $85 million, permitted routes face the prospect of being cut short...................................."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

..and you can bet your boots this won't be high on Transits priority list (http://www.transit.govt.nz/planning/forecast.jsp)...and even if it is, my personal view is that the way Transit operates it will take years.

[Snow Leopard]

Hit the $6.50 barrier today, but no obvious dents in the bodywork.

The trading volume on Mainfreight picked up a couple of months ago, and the OBV is running away.
As far as I can determine those buying now are factoring in some strong growth over the next couple of years.
Although I believe this is one of the best companies on the NZX currently, as is often the case, I feel it is a tad overpriced.

regards
Paper Tiger

Disc: MFT is my single largest shareholding.

[Hoop]

Gee..PT...You've had this stock for a while now.

A marvelous stock to own and get a good night sleep as well ....steady uphill mover... uninterrupted by economic recovery concerns ...the uptrend not even impacted by the recent market correction...great stuff.

Yankiwi..8 month old question...Still in Hoop?
Ooohh yes

[Snow Leopard]

So profit of $36M4 or 36.9cps, which is a P/E of 16. This provides a moderate increase in the headline profit.
Dividend stays the same at 10cps.

Usual stuff in the commentary a number of satisfactory's and a disappointing.

The good thing is that some bonus as been paid and I would have been happy for them to provide a more extensive one. It is important to keep your employees motivated.

Anyways a definite 'not too bad' in the circumstances. My faith in the management remains and I look forward to the time when the US and Asia operations really start to contribute to the bottom line.

[Hoop]

Yes I agree PT..not too bad a result.
A good bounce back to solid growth in the last half year up 11% sales / 58% earnings from that of the bad 1st half...This momentum has continued into this 2010 financial year so the PE being at 16 seems justified. Management did the necessary cost cutting stuff during the 2008/2009 hard times as all good management should. Incentives to boost production ..all good management strategies.
Nothings changed in my book ...PT like you have faith in the management.

The market seemed not to like the result though down 14c**...get the feeling the price fall is not warranted FA wise. TA wise the Charts don't look good so maybe the fall is technical rather than fundamental.

**price bounced up as I wrote now down 8

Disc: own MFT shares

[Hoop]

Trading at 12.07 showed sales at $6.55 and $6.52...followed by two bizarre trades .... last trade price $6.10 down 45c

610 1,925 12:07
635 100 12:07

buyers are there now at 6.40.
Hope the NZX guys are watching ...looks suspicious.

additional info...Q1 results due 19th August.

Disc: have not sold MFT...holding

[Hoop]

Update

An NZX error? or were the NZX guys watching.

the $6.10 trade has disappeared from the depth screen and the 100 shares traded at $6.35 is still there
The price still shows $6.10 down -20c now from -45c. on the DB site.

Luckily no one panicked/ computer stop/loss triggered with the erroneous? shake out...

[Silverlight]

An NZX error?

Not an NZX error Hoop, a broker error (aka fat finger). They happen all the time.

The seller would then have to ask politely with the buyer if they can cancel their error. If they agree, no more trade. Participant Rule A10.17.

[Hoop]

Not an NZX error Hoop, a broker error (aka fat finger). They happen all the time.

The seller would then have to ask politely with the buyer if they can cancel their error. If they agree, no more trade. Participant Rule A10.17.

Thxs Silverlight... Appreciated

[Snow Leopard]

Mainfreight continues it relentless rise and finished yesterday at $7.87 but with about 700 traded at $8.

We are now back in the territory that it occupied for a few months from November 2006, when I considered it well overpriced.

I guess it is OK price given the expectations for full year profit and presumably this is currently a technical analysts dream share.

best wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: :D

[Snow Leopard]

Long, long ago in the dim and distant past (1st December 2006) Good Old Mainfreight closed at $8.15 a share, a price yet to be beaten but today, :t_up: EQUALLED :t_up:.

I think I may have to find some NZ Sav Cab and toast* the auspicious occasion.

Paper Tiger

*will use Mainland Butter but Ozzie bread

[Hoop]

A Dream share in my portfolio :) wish my others were all like this well behaved prized pony.

Well PT ........Its hit the ultimate resistance....if it breaks above this, it will be all blue sky again.

[Snow Leopard]

Long, long ago in the dim and distant past (1st December 2006) Good Old Mainfreight closed at $8.15 a share, a price yet to be beaten but today, :t_up: EQUALLED :t_up:.

I think I may have to find some NZ Sav Cab and toast* the auspicious occasion.

Paper Tiger

*will use Mainland Butter but Ozzie bread

New all time high :t_up:
Now where did that case of Sav Cab go ?

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

So Good ol' Mainfreight are continuing on their quest for World Domination (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MFT&E=NZSE&N=206518).

best wishes
paper Tiger

[Lizard]

So Good ol' Mainfreight are continuing on their quest for World Domination (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MFT&E=NZSE&N=206518).


Yes - and somehow still listed on the NZX. They deserve a bit of love and loyalty from NZ investors!

[Phaedrus]

The long uptrend continues. This is a nice, tidy linear uptrend that has never strayed very far from its trendline.
By contrast, the OBV plot is a bit untidy and has diverged quite widely from its trendline. While the overall uptrend is unmistakable, other volume indicators such as the Williams' Accumulation/Distribution Indicator shown here give a tighter trendline that, theoretically at least, may give a more timely exit signal than the OBV. PT will be angry at me for even mentioning Sell signals and MFT in the same post, but they will come. No uptrend lasts forever.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/MFT37.gif

[Kryptor]

Anyone work out what interest cover will be?

[Snow Leopard]

...PT will be angry at me for even mentioning Sell signals and MFT in the same post, but they will come. No uptrend lasts forever....

My dear Phaedrus

Say what you will, I am as happy to read a post by you as I am a post by anybody else. Please feel free to continue drawing your pretty pictures.

Despite continuously being on the Mainfreight share register for nearly seven years, I have in that time sold many and have also bought more.

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[Hoop]

Yes true no uptrend lasts forever.....however atm the sun is shining on MFT because it is above the cloud cover on its chart..in other words its in blue sky territory, above all its previous high points, therefore has no resistance levels only support levels.

This blue sky area is the envy of all stocks...to be where only a few have been before.
My Incredible chart program goes back only 8 years but during this time period only two** other stocks in the NZ50 at this moment are are soaring above the clouds in blue sky with MFT.

They are Ebos (EBO) and Port of Tauranga (POT)

If these stocks are not already in your portfolio you would have to question yourself why not...hmm?

Disc don't have EBOS POT :mellow::mellow::confused::confused::(:(
but have MFT :D

EDIT
** ANO... doesn't count

[percy]

Yes true no uptrend lasts forever.....however atm the sun is shining on MFT because it is above the cloud cover on its chart..in other words its in blue sky territory, above all its previous high points, therefore has no resistance levels only support levels.

This blue sky area is the envy of all stocks...to be where only a few have been before.
My Incredible chart program goes back only 8 years but during this time period only two** other stocks in the NZ50 at this moment are are soaring above the clouds in blue sky with MFT.

They are Ebos (EBO) and Port of Tauranga (POT)

If these stocks are not already in your portfolio you would have to question yourself why not...hmm?

Disc don't have EBOS POT :mellow::mellow::confused::confused::(:(
but have MFT :D

EDIT
** ANO... doesn't count

I have the other two,but not Mainfreight.Should have.!!!! As per all good shares,always seemed too dear. A friend's son works for them,and cannot speak highly enough of them.If you want a really great book to read it is the Mainfreight story.My only regret was the book came to an end while the Mainfreight story just gets better.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Fisherfunds NZ Growth has a large MFT component in its portfolio and presumably continues to buy with positive investor inflows...
FF NZGrowth unit price was up 4 cents yesterday with this and other positive stocks ...

[Lizard]

Better beat PT to it and point out that MFT's result looked pretty tidy there.

On some metrics, MFT looks expensive, but, considering the post FY acquisition of Wim Bosman, it is possible MFT is still on a PEG of less than 1 (at $9.26). That's basing the PEG on current tax-normal PE and potential 1 year forward growth in NPAT.

[Hoop]

$9.88 up 44c
Liz it seems the market today thinks it undervalued (PEG less than 1)

NZ Sav Cab and toast* tonight is it PT?

[Snow Leopard]

One wonders if some idiot is going to have a go at the $10 barrier.

I am completely out of NZ wine - the last bottle of a rather nice Chardonnay disappeared mid week.
However I do have a passable Shiraz and a few bottles of Sav Cab & Merlot from a fantastic winery in the Yarra Valley.

So that and some raisin bread could well be on the menu this evening.

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[COLIN]

The flagship of my NZ portfolio. Has a good head of steam and, like a giant super-tanker, it will take many miles before it can be turned round. Hard to get holders to provide "fuel" for buyers to purchase.

Is the largest holding in Carmel Fisher's KFL, hence the interest in that stock too. (RYM is their second largest holding, for info of those afficionados.)

[Hoop]

One wonders if some idiot is going to have a go at the $10 barrier.

12.08pm 304 shares bought for $10:)
No it wasn't me

[_Michael]

12.08pm 304 shares bought for $10:)
No it wasn't me

I would short MFT at $10.00

Look at TOL in Australia - equally as impressive business, management and growth prospects yet 50% lower valuation.

MFT is a great company but over valued.

[Hoop]

Mft got as high as 10.60 in a steady uptrend since the last post

Got technically knocked about with this recent insane global flash panic attack.

Stellar 3 month report out today as was forecast to the market last month.
Outlook is more of the same

MFT gone to 970 up 8 from red to blue .....one of the very few blue spots on the NZX atm

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=2862998

[scamper]

ooops! the sp is plunging. Why? Scamper doesn't know...

[karen1]

Read this recently, maybe the writer has a point?:

http://*************nz.blogspot.com/search?q=mainfreight

[percy]

Read this recently, maybe the writer has a point?:

http://*************nz.blogspot.com/search?q=mainfreight

Thanks for the link.Fair comment.

[winner69]

Did MFT say soemthing to upsaet Mr Market today .... down 10%

Whatsup .... where is whatsup by the way .... always enjoyed his posts

[Toulouse - Luzern]

It seems the market expected more:

Perhaps an answer to the drop is in the details of the release ...

Extract from News release today on the Directbroking site:

MFT
14/02/2012 08:46
QUARTER

REL: 0846 HRS Mainfreight Limited

QUARTER: MFT: Mainfreight Result Nine Months to December 2011

Financial result for the nine months ended December 2011 (Unaudited)

Mainfreight is pleased to report a record net surplus after taxation and
abnormals of $46.75 million for the first nine months of the 2012 financial
year; an increase of 34.9% on the previous year's result of $34.65 million.
Excluding abnormals ($0.51 million after tax) the increase was 36.4%.

EBITDA performance was also at a record level for a nine month result
breaking $100 million for the first time, an increase of 50.9% to $101.02
million.

This is despite a poorer-than-expected third quarter performance where
freight volumes and returns only matched the prior year levels. December
trading, in particular, was below our expectations.

For more info:

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3010382for

[Snow Leopard]

It would seem that the money that pulled MFT up from $9.42 was banking on something special results-wise

and now they are disappointed. :D

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[ratkin]

Just bought in today at the new low prices. One of New Zealand's best run companies - happy to take advantage of what I think will be temporary low prices based on a single quarter's mixed results.

If i held (which i dont) think i would of been selling up to. Freight volumes not likely to pick up for quite some time , especially in europe. Think they did well to keep the pot boiling for as long as they have. The amount there stock has gone up in the last year or so there bound to be decent correction. Think you brave buying today

[Hoop]

Just bought in today at the new low prices. One of New Zealand's best run companies - happy to take advantage of what I think will be temporary low prices based on a single quarter's mixed results.

I'm with Ratkin one this one...but my reason is technical
The rise in 2011 got MFT into blue sky area and it looked like it rose too fast and too high and got ahead of itself..The mini crash of 8th August which saw the price fall to close at 940 showed a possible warning sign and it set a primary support level..any close below this figure and the stock enters a primary bear tide (bear market). Sparky MFT closed at 940c today...so buying in may produce you with a handsome return if the market bounces back but the risk you are taking to gain this possible reward is too high.

This is Paper Tiger's stock and his comments on this page said it all (Post#332 end of May 2011)

One wonders if some idiot is going to have a go at the $10 barrier.

I am completely out of NZ wine - the last bottle of a rather nice Chardonnay disappeared mid week.
However I do have a passable Shiraz and a few bottles of Sav Cab & Merlot from a fantastic winery in the Yarra Valley.

So that and some raisin bread could well be on the menu this evening.

best wishes
Paper Tiger

Recently with Freightways in the limelight Mr Market was able to get MFT totally wrong big time...a techies nightmare.

Disc: sold out on the dead cat bounce after the minicrash (8/8/2011)

[Snow Leopard]

.... This is Paper Tiger's stock and his comments on this page said it all (Post#332 end of May 2011) ....

It is not exclusively mine you understand.
But I was the champion for this stock in days gone by, bravely standing up to the ridicule of my fellow share-traders as they, the non-believers, ignored the profit among them.
However I have regarded the stock as overpriced for a while but have also been quite happy for the force to be strong without me.

Whilst I personally did not, nor would not buy in as Sparky has done, I will let the dust settle and see where it wants to go next. I hope it goes well for you.


best wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: hold MFT, I always hold some MFT :eek2:

[sharer]

[QUOTE=Hoop;....The mini crash of 8th August which saw the price fall to close at 940 showed a possible warning sign and it set a primary support level..any close below this figure and the stock enters a primary bear tide (bear market). Sparky MFT closed at 940c today...so buying in may produce you with a handsome return if the market bounces back but the risk you are taking to gain this possible reward is too high. ]

Currently dipped to 934, & sellers/buyers fluctuating about 3 to 1.
But still a good business, so i hope Sparky doesn't panic.

[sharer]

Heading into closing hour at 925, and Sell pressure nearly 8 : 1

In guesstimating future business risk: For past 9 months NZ & US seemed very modestly encouraging, Oz uninspiring domestic ok but poor international and static Asia for MFT a caution, Europe a mix of cautions and threatening recession ahead (tho possibly better for MFT in the east, surprisingly).
Their reach now so wide, MFT reflects the global economy (which i guess has been their longterm strategy).
So, it's Hold & Hope.

[janner]

Bigger name clients usually screw the living daylights out of transport..

Although if you can perform at their screwed price they usually stick.

Good bread and butter !!.

[Hoop]

Looking better now at $9.60. In my opinion this stock exhibited all the traits of overselling by panicked stockholders a few days ago.

Yes Sparky its good to see MFT bottom out and break the 940 barrier...but...it's still technically broken.
I agree its looking better... today was a good day, MFT rising 13c to 9.60 to test its EMA200 resistance.

I know your'e not a TA fan but have a look at my long term chart below. It's Friday the 17th chart but it's still relevant.

First of all when a sudden dramatic event happens the human mind can exaggerate that event..charts are good to reinforce the true actual historic event happening and helps the human mind to stay true and correct.

Chartwise the gap down from 10.35 to 9.35 on the 14th Feb was very dramatic for MFT but was it a panic sell? The Chart says no. The RSI indicator measures the overbuying and overselling investor behaviour and yes there was a large drop to selling behaviour. If you look at March 2009 on the chart you can just pick up the panic selling from the crash..you can see it was well below the 30...the February 14th selloff was above 30 so it was a rational logical selloff (a market correction) caused by unexpected change to market data

The EMA200 is the line you should be interested in Sparky, its a lagging indicator for long term investors its trend usually confirms the market cycle.
When a bull market goes bear the primary up trend line always breaks...however a TA trendy's life is not easy because sometimes the primary trend line breaks while a bull market corrects itself. This is when lagging indicators become important because they can confirm a cycle change.
The MA200 on the MFT chart below has altered direction from uptrending to levelling out...at the moment a flat line MA200 hasn't convincingly confirmed that the primary trend line break is due to a new bear cycle but 8 months of lower highs and lower lows is forming a down trending channel formation and the MA200 is influenced by this

...so.... the outlook for MFT (at this moment in time) isn't great unless the market receives unexpected positive data to force another market correction....or....the NZ equity market booms to which the rising tide lifts up all boats (except submarines).

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/MFT17022012.png

[Snow Leopard]

Yes Sparky its good to see MFT bottom out and break the 940 barrier...but...

...so.... the outlook for MFT (at this moment in time) isn't great unless the market receives unexpected positive data to force another market correction....or

....the NZ equity market booms to which the rising tide lifts up all boats (except submarines).


Hoop:
you are beginning to remind me too much of Phaedrus...

... except for that last bit where you remind me too much of me.

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

or their late.

General expectation is for around $65m profit.

Tomorrow we find out the truth.

4000

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[Lizard]

or their late.

General expectation is for around $65m profit.

Tomorrow we find out the truth.


$65.7m. Happy then?

Presume they will pull it together this period and you can get back through $10 again. :)

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Plus 29 cents so far.
Good for Fisherfund holders.

[Hoop]

There should not have been any surprise with the quarterly results pointing the way to a $65 M profit ....so why did the Mr Market rate it up +3.4% :confused: with todays announcement.

[Snow Leopard]

There should not have been any surprise with the quarterly results pointing the way to a $65 M profit ....so why did the Mr Market rate it up +3.4% :confused: with todays announcement.

You want rational :eek2:?

Look at the nice picture attached to my last post again.


best wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Gaynor gets stuck into Mainfreight about lack of transparency and to some degree a total disregard to what shareholders might think reasonable ..... being tainted with Mogridge in their midst is bad enough but displaying what some may say as arrogance towards shareholders is not the game to paly these days

Maybe Foo Fughter ( acomment to the article) is on the ball -

(Quote) Totally agree Brian. Such underhand tactics belong to a generation of business managers well passed their use by date.

Shareholders own the business and through annual polling should always get a say in who gets appointed or remains a director.

This standard should apply regardless of whether than can be physically present at an AGM [or send a representative in their place]. Owning shares in companies overseas means there will be little likelihood of ever being present at some AGM's - its a fact of business life. The Chairman of Mainfreight should hang his head in shame. He's a disgrace to other NZ business leaders. (end quote)


Spose gaynor has a point when he says ...If shareholders don't stand their ground then more surpluses will be allocated to senior executives and directors instead of dividends and retained earnings ...... but then again it just shows that even good guys like Pleisted can get caught up innthe hype and forget his roots and get greedy ..... and in due course the whole system will slowlt disintegrate

Next time I see a Mainfreight truck I'll only think about what a great company they once were

[percy]

Yes, I thought the Mogridge directorship was an unusual black mark for an otherwise highly respected company. It's a bit of an eye opener to read Gaynor's column and see that MFT is not immune from poor processes and/or unethical decision-making.

I've always thought of Bruce Plested as one of the good guys. Someone who strove to avoid ostentatiousness so as to not spook either investors or his truck drivers, someone who kept his head down and delivered for shareholders.

After taking Gaynor's comments on board, I might have to up the cynicism level here.

Bruce Plested is still one of the good guys.Directors,staff and ex directors still have large shareholdings and I expect the Chairman would have had enough proxies to have voted any resolutions through.
Should the institutions felt they wanted to oppose anything they would have got themselves organised.MFT had Richard Preeble as a director when he was not "politically correct",and would think Plested would have had Mogridge gone if he thought Mogridge could not "add anything" to the board.
I agree with Gaynor that some companies look after directors,management,and staff at shareholders expense.We shareholders don't stop this.It is a lot of fun standing up at an AGM and quoting Buffett and stating you think the directors are already overpaid,and quoting the director fees of similar sized companies.The look on the director's face makes it well worth while.Then stating that the consulants don't appear to have done a very good job.!!!!!
A really good read is the book on the Mainfreight history.

[winner69]

Percy - I may have been a bit harsh on MFT yesterday but they are leaving themselves open to criticism

I fear they are getting to big to operate the old fashioned way that has made them successful .... I fear they are being sucked into the world where instos make more and more demands on them to keep on growing ..... and with that many of the standards I always admired them for go out the window

Things like this only change slowly .... but often when one looks back there is a defining moment .... and recent events might have been that ..... like even once Mogridges mate George was everybody's hero who could do no wrong eh

[percy]

Since their first annual report,or was it their prospectus they set out to conquer the world.Then it was space.I thought "big talk".
Then they fell over in Aussie. I thought pack of tossers.They learnt their lesson and were away again.
MFT is very much like a religion.A passion that goes right through the business.Success is enjoyed by all,failures shared and learnt by.When things got tuff they closed shop;no pay rises,no promotion,just heads down,tails up,put the good of the business first.
I can't see anyone at MFT giving intos much consideration.
However,I agree with you that they are getting too big to operate the old fashioned way.

[winner69]

MFT close to a 52 week low ..... whats up ..... talking of whatsup anybody know what happened to him/her

[percy]

MFT close to a 52 week low ..... whats up ..... talking of whatsup anybody know what happened to him/her

Last post whatsup posted I think he said he had forgotten his password.
The SP has been in decline since Neil Graham sold a lot to buy his $2mil [or was it $3mil ?] Aston Martin.With petrol and insurance costs rising I expect he has had to sell a few more.!!!!!
Then again they are such a lovely car,he may have decided to buy another one.

[percy]

Went to a Mainfreight presentation given by Don Baird organised by Macquarries tonight.[Thank you for the invite]
Excellent speaker.An "old fashioned" straight shooter.Staff start on the "floor" and work their way up.Promote from within.
He spoke of his disagreements with NZX.Said it took years for an outside director to fully understand the business,so waste of time replacing directors every five years. Would think Gaynor, or any institution would have to take MFT as they are, because they are not going to do it any other way than the MFT way.! We will see MFT Aussie run by Aussies employing Aussies doing it the MFT Aussie way.Same in US and Europe.ie run by local people.A fascinating company.Can see why Baird is so highly regarded.

[quartzpurple]

thanks for the update Percy...any other takeaway?

[percy]

thanks for the update Percy...any other takeaway?
Baird said doing work for a customer in one country,often lead to gaining work for that customer in other countries.Building world wide good customer base.
Europe.Lost biggest customer when they first took over the business as previous owner would not lower rates.Not at all happy about that,however they have picked up five major customers.They got a lot of good property in the European acqusition.They need to be there.
Everything they do is for the long term good of the business.Not interested in short term short cuts.
350 million people in Europe need to be feed.Food,supplies have to be delivered to markets.
Even in tough times people still eat,so those supplies must get delivered.
Said rail in US had a poor record of delivery on time,so does not suit them.
Look forward to expansion with new offices openning over the next few days to over the next year.Vietman,Turkey etc.
As more and more of MFT earnings are overseas they feel MFT should be classed as an exporter for tax.They keep talking to Govt about this.
I came away feeling the fun [growth] is about to happen.!!!!! Bring it on.!!!

[percy]

Was interesting to hear Baird speak of PE ratio.MFT trade on 12 or 13 PE,however their opposition trade on PEs of approx 22 on overseas markets.
Said they had been approached by brokers trying to get them to list on overseas exchanges.Could see that would increase SP and give fat fees to brokers,however they intend to stay NZ listed.
Said being NZders helped a lot in Europe as most the French hate the Belguims,the Germans hate the English ,etc,and Kiwis were n't hated.Makes the rivillary between Aussies and Kiwis minor.Generations of hatred.
Also opposition miss judged the little Kiwi company.A lot of the big opposition companies were very set in their ways,and only did certain segments of the market,while MFT chased all business.

[sharer]

Thanks again for your reports Percy, your comments help to reinforce the egalitarian nature & competence driven culture of this company.
MFT has been my favourite in the past few years, always looking for chances to buy more if price dips.
One of the very few where i like to get the printed reports, & read from cover to cover.
When global trade eventually revives, MFT seems well placed to give us all a welcome leap upwards :)
Sharer

[percy]

sharer; A few years ago I read the book"The Mainfreight Story".Just as it was getting really exciting the book finnished.
I sent Don Baird an email today thanking him for the excellent presentation, and asked when part 2 of the book would come out.A very quick reply saying the 2nd book was not far away.
I really don't think Baird or Mainfreight will bother waiting for global trade to revive.!!!!!!

[percy]

MFT being held back by their poor performing European division... again. Looks like their western European operations need another year to sort themselves out.

Trust you had a good trip.I have just returned from up your way and Whangarei,Tutukawa coast and Opononi.Lovely part of the country.[bit warmer than ChCh too]
I think MFT have the European problems sorted,and the next year should see positive results from this very important part of the business.Everywhere else doing well.

[sharer]

... I think MFT have the European problems sorted,and the next year should see positive results from this very important part of the business.Everywhere else doing well.

I'm also very interested to see future improvements in China business. This is expected to be strongly affected by MFT efforts to link China to Europe, as well as USA progress.
I was too slow off the mark to get more on the recent brief dip on share mkt, must watch more closely.

[percy]

I'm also very interested to see future improvements in China business. This is expected to be strongly affected by MFT efforts to link China to Europe, as well as USA progress.
I was too slow off the mark to get more on the recent brief dip on share mkt, must watch more closely.

Gee Whiz,You would have had to be very fast.I was surprised how quickly the SP rebounded.

[ENP]

What is Main Freight's durable competitive advantage?

I work in freight and logisitcs and deal with them every now and then. I don't think their deliveries are any faster or more reliable. I also get an equal level of customer serivce from others such as Toll (listed on ASX).

At the end of the day, they provide a commodity of putting something on a truck and driving it to where it needs to go.

[percy]

What is Main Freight's durable competitive advantage?

I work in freight and logisitcs and deal with them every now and then. I don't think their deliveries are any faster or more reliable. I also get an equal level of customer serivce from others such as Toll (listed on ASX).

At the end of the day, they provide a commodity of putting something on a truck and driving it to where it needs to go.

Well another of my beliefs shoot down in flames.I thought "special people,special company." And to have it happen at Xmas time.!!! lol.

[winner69]

Maybe 'special people, special company' meant something once but overtime that something special has faded - at least in NZ

One thing though if you want one freight provider to actually make deliveries in their own trucks from North Cape to Bluff Mainfreight is the only one - spose taht a bit special and probably keeps a bit of their bigger business safe

[ENP]

One thing though if you want one freight provider to actually make deliveries in their own trucks from North Cape to Bluff Mainfreight is the only one

No it's definitely not.

There are numerous other freight providers that own and control the entire process from pick up to delivery NZ wide other than Mainfreight.

Why as a customer would I use Mainfreight instead of others? They aren't the cheapest. They don't provide a superior product or service. Other competitors are just as big and therefore can pick up/deliver my order just as quick.

I'm finding it hard to uncover what makes them "different" and what their competitive advantage is.

[Hoop]

This Blue Sky stock has had its breather and up running round in blue sky territory again.:)
see Rym thread re blue sky stocks (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?626-Ryman-Too-boring-to-talk-about/page61)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/MFT20012013_zpsf722797b.png

[sharer]

Thanks Hoop.
What a beautiful picture !

(disc: hold lots, still looking to accumulate on dips)

[Snow Leopard]

Mainfreight have today issued a forecast (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MFT&E=NZSE&N=234395) for the current financial year which is essentially flat.

The market has unsurprising reacted a little negatively to this but is still a little way ahead of what I regard as a sensible price.

I would expect that earning would pick up again next year but expecting strong growth is being overly optimistic.

Best wishes
Paper Tiger

[percy]

Mainfreight have today issued a forecast (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MFT&E=NZSE&N=234395) for the current financial year which is essentially flat.

The market has unsurprising reacted a little negatively to this but is still a little way ahead of what I regard as a sensible price.

I would expect that earning would pick up again next year but expecting strong growth is being overly optimistic.

Best wishes
Paper Tiger

Sensible price? MFT are to me like EBO and FRE very difficult to work out what is a sensible price.Always seem to be either overpriced or grossly over priced. Sell a few and they go up more.

[janner]

FORD are closing their plant in Belgium.. Massive Lay-Offs.. Cyprus aside.. Europe is not in a healthy condition..

Must affect freight..

Maybe MF will go back to the old rail freight days.. China to Germany .. 15 days.. Faster than Ships.. Cheaper than Air..

[percy]

FORD are closing their plant in Belgium.. Massive Lay-Offs.. Cyprus aside.. Europe is not in a healthy condition..

Must affect freight..

Maybe MF will go back to the old rail freight days.. China to Germany .. 15 days.. Faster than Ships.. Cheaper than Air..

If I agreed with you,we'd both be wrong.!

[janner]

Are you saying that Europe is in a better condition than I think Perc.. ??

Or..

Are you saying that Rail freight from China to Europe is not a goer for MFT.. ?

[percy]

The chairman of Cavotec,Europe based, is very confident.Business in both sea and airports picking up,so maybe all is not so bad.I went to CCC meeting on 15/3/13.Like 6% unemployment is really 94% full employment.
In a presentation given by Don Baird he pointed out the Europeans had not stopped eating,which means there is a lot of food,produce to be delivered to markets.739mil or more people get through a lot of tucker,use a lot of loo paper,cats and dogs keep eating,so even when things slow down there is a lot of business being done.What I did find interesting was the amount of business in other parts of the world comes from their presence in Europe.So it is a very important part of their business that they have to get right.Close to Russia, population 141mil ,and UK, population 62mil.
15days China to Europe seems history should you compare 5 days China to USA,by sea.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Will not be long before most Ford cars will be built in China so maybe the railway would be the Answer

[Snow Leopard]

I have a soft spot for Mainfreight, it being the first shares I ever bought* and so even though I have not owned any for a while I still keep an eye on them.

The share price is going downhill faster than a fully loaded rig with brake problems and getting to the sort of price that I find interesting.
Now I am currently happy for it to descend as much as it likes but I am prepared for a change in gradient.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

*Technically the first shares I ever 'owned' were two lots (they spelt my name differently for each lot) of Advantage shares under the employee share scheme. But I never paid for them, gave them up when I left and they never paid any dividends.
It was at Advantage that I first met Eric Watson and disliked him instantly.

[Mista_Trix]

Main article on Herald business page at the moment;
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10892979

[Banksie]

Once again highlights the poor quality of reporting.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/MFT/announcements/237816 (https://www.nzx.com/companies/MFT/announcements/237816)

Should have been easy to check the facts about whether or not the loss had been disclosed to the stock exchange.

[Mista_Trix]

I've really got to stop trusting reporters :-S

Cheers Banksie.

[nextbigthing]

Did anybody make it to the AGM today? Anything of interest come out of it? Situation for European operations?

[nextbigthing]

Mainfreight as a medium term hold?

MFT last returned 66 cents per share. At the AGM it was announced they anticipated a 2.5% decrease due to the dropping of parcels in Australia as they refocus on more profitable ops there. Logically the share price dropped 2.5%. Let's say for arguments sake they now return 64cps. Closing price $10.45

.64÷10.45= 6% return (not necessarily to investors of course).

So if growth was to stop in that any increase in revenue from now was met by a corresponding increase in costs and all other factors remained more or less unchanged, this company could 'in theory' return a 6% dividend to investors. Not amazing but not that bad either. This assumes no growth.

Now look at the speeches from the AGM.

1) Our Australian operations are being hindered by a lack of capacity.

OK - let me get this straight, you're so busy you don't have enough room. Sounds like a reasonable sort of problem to have to me. How is this being resolved? You're building extra capacity in pretty much all the Australian cities over the next couple of years. Brilliant.

2) European operations are slow.

You're earning a 6% return overall with a sluggish sector dragging you down. What's going to happen when this sector picks up? Worst case should be 6% return and when it picks up, who knows.

3) New offices opening in many countries....

Shorter term sure this is costly but medium and longer term this is only going to add to marketability and efficiency and surely profits. You're carrying many of these new offices now and making 6%, so anything they can make will only add to this.

Other debatable favourable items;

Strong stable management
Proven history with strong future direction and sensible strong realistic growth
Non speculative industry. Not needing legislation against.

IMHO buying mainfreight means most likely at worst a 6% return with the likely possibility of some serious growth from new branches around the world and growth and efficiency in Australia.

What are your thoughts?


Disc; own MFT and at 10.45 considering some more!

[nextbigthing]

Any chartists follow this stock? Nicely trending up consistently for a month now.

NBT

[Jay]

Somewhere Hoop or was it halebop mentioned that you could trade it on the 30 MA. he/she did track it over a few years and would have done/did do well out of it.

I had a look a few weeks ago, at the last year or so and got a gross return of around 17% pa. I think it was may have been net.

[nextbigthing]

There's one seller at 11.89 then one at $12 and that's it! Granted its a very dynamic situation of course but still....

[Huskeez]

My system seen it around a month ago and indicated a "buy" signal which I posted on the exact day I got the signal. Cant remember the date. You will be able to find it by looking through my posts

[Huskeez]

Above post was intended for "nextbigthing"

[nextbigthing]

Above post was intended for "nextbigthing"

Hey Huskeez,

Thanks, I did see that on the systems thread. I didn't have time to analyse the system but I like the result!

Does your system predict exits as well or just 'buys'. I'm a long term holder in MFT as I believe it is a very strong company, however I'm considering trading in it too. It does experience lower liquidity however.

Anyway, I hope you acted on the systems advice!?

Cheers,

NBT

[percy]

Am enjoying "Ready Fire Aim The Mainfreight Story" by keith Davies.isbn,978177532903.

[Hoop]

Hey Huskeez,

Thanks, I did see that on the systems thread. I didn't have time to analyse the system but I like the result!

Does your system predict exits as well or just 'buys'. I'm a long term holder in MFT as I believe it is a very strong company, however I'm considering trading in it too. It does experience lower liquidity however.

Anyway, I hope you acted on the systems advice!?

Cheers,

NBT

Yes its a strong company..also a growth company... so with a PE of 17 in a low inflation environment,... why is MFT share price being lack lustre???
A 10 year chart sheds some light light on the subject......market darling with a too rapid climb to become well overvalued to the unjust (insane) market price the other way during the GFC crash.....It seems by taking a ruler to the chart and average out those violent swings it seems the pricing now is a rare "normal" with a lowish PE built in as a buffer to a slowing of growth...
but how ever you look at the last 2 years or so it's been a disappointment compared to its market environment which has been enjoying a raging bull market cycle period

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/MFT2210201310yrA.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/MFT2210201310yrA.png.html)

and if a person looks at a 1year chart it seems a blane picture but there is a bright spot...its has a low successful bullish ascending scallop pattern (http://thepatternsite.com/ascscallop.html) which looks to have a flag on it now (a pause event) if this pattern succeeds then a target price of 12.60 is formulated but the success here could be limited when it tests the all time high resistance at $12.20. (To the untrained eye the ascending scallop looks like a fish hook starting near the bull trap and ending on the October line on the chart below...for the scallop pattern to perform bullishly it has to break the 11.60 resistance)

The presently squeezed Bollinger bands may be telling a story that the present short term down channel is nothing more than a pause before the longer term uptrend is resumed therefore creating a bullish flag pattern (http://thepatternsite.com/flags.html) (the last down sloping (where the green arrow is) channel pattern on the chart below)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/MFT22102013.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/MFT22102013.gif.html)

[nextbigthing]

Thanks Hoop, excellent chart.

[nextbigthing]

Hoop,

Your charts and statements would then suggest the following to me;

'This is a solid long term stock, that has lagged slightly behind where it should be in the market in the last two years but is showing short term signs that it might be about to play catch up - which sounds like a good entry point into a reasonably 'safe' stock'.

Why has it lagged behind then? I would suggest that perhaps it's because of the more 'sexy' options out there at the moment - the PEB's XRO's SML's etc. Perhaps when favour for these stocks tires or the money has been made elsewhere and the market as a whole takes a breather, the money may return to boring old MFT?

Just a theory. DYOR

NBT

Disc; Hold.

[Hoop]

Hoop,

Your charts and statements would then suggest the following to me;

'This is a solid long term stock, that has lagged slightly behind where it should be in the market in the last two years but is showing short term signs that it might be about to play catch up - which sounds like a good entry point into a reasonably 'safe' stock'.

Why has it lagged behind then? I would suggest that perhaps it's because of the more 'sexy' options out there at the moment - the PEB's XRO's SML's etc. Perhaps when favour for these stocks tires or the money has been made elsewhere and the market as a whole takes a breather, the money may return to boring old MFT?

Just a theory. DYOR

NBT

Disc; Hold.

Yeah..the charts suggest MFT is definitely not in a state of exuberance...however as the 10year chart says, stocks can stay in an oversold or overbought stages for years....and while you are waiting months or years (collecting a lowsh 2.8% yield rate in Dividends) for a great fundamental stock to shake off it's oversold status its fundamental status could change e.g market environment change and entering a recession...
It may seem a "safe" stock atm being in a state of oversold but having your money waiting in an under-performing stock reduces your ability and agility to grab opportunities elsewhere....so..yes..there is a good argument saying that while the investors are away playing in greener pastures chasing the exuberant stuff, MFT is overlooked and languishes.

Is MFT showing signs of catch up......technically not yet.... Busting top resistance and gaping up to form a series of new highs would trigger a "catch up in the making" buy signal...the 10year chart would suggest an overbought status at $13 could be considered a realistic happening....but pessimistically so too could $10.00..

How Safe is "safe"....History has MFT having a poor record fighting with the bears....In hindsight it had good fundamentals compared to many other stocks during the last crash but the shareprice fell heavily, obviously the investors hearing of near empty depot sheds and trucks off the road, didn't see it in a positive light at the time...

,,any thoughts from the Fundies..???

[Snow Leopard]

Hoop you need to find something that does a log price scale - using a linear scale over such a wide price range is not at all useful in my books.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/MFT2210201310yrA.png

Blue line is a 10 year linear regression, green is the equivalent of the line from the chart above:

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/MFT.png

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Mista_Trix]

Looks like it may finally be starting to turn around;
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/mainfreight-first-half-profit-jumps-51-percent-bosman-settlement-australasia-asian-growth-bd

Well done holders, my suuuuper boring long term play is finally starting to pay off.
Definitely the most unsexy part of my portfolio (XRO, PEB, SUM), but its seen an av 18% gain so far for me so I'm happy.

[Mista_Trix]

Jeez, $3 Million in off market trades have just gone through.

[nextbigthing]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9392469/Mainfreight-delivers-as-Europe-baggage-sorted

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Great recent analysis on this thread.

Great result, the situation is being positively managed.

Interesting right now at 10.32am NZT up 2.1% today and in my screen only one seller for 2000 shares.

Rare.

[gv1]

NZ herald website stated yesterday that co made 50% profit, is this correct?

[Snow Leopard]

NZ herald website stated yesterday that co made 50% profit, is this correct?

No, not really.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[gv1]

No, not really.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Thanks paper tiger, I thought as well after looking at the accounts. The herald didn't analyse as such as to how they got that fiqure though.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

From the first few paragraphs of the MFT release below to the NZX I calculate a 50.79% improvement. (E&OE)

"After abnormals, a net surplus of $41.83 million was recorded, compared to
$27.74 million for the same period last year."

Source: From the Direct Broking Site.

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3483617

The first few paragraphs of the MFT release to the NZX.

MFT
12/11/2013 08:30 After abnormals, a net surplus of $41.83 million was recorded, compared to
$27.74 million for the same period last year.
HALFYR

REL: 0830 HRS Mainfreight Limited

HALFYR: MFT: Mainfreight - HY Financial Results to 30 September 2013

MAINFREIGHT LIMITED

Financial result for the six months ended 30 September 2013 (Unaudited)

The Mainfreight Group is pleased to report a net surplus before abnormals of
$29.87 million for the first six months of our 2014 trading year. This is an
increase of 7.7% over the same period in the prior year.

EBITDA performance improved 3.7% to $63.30 million, an increase of $2.24
million over the previous year. Excluding foreign exchange effects, the
increase is 6.1%.

Total revenue (sales) increased 1.7% to $952.70 million (excluding foreign
exchange effects, this is an increase of 4.0% over the same period last
year).

Abnormal items after tax for the period total $11.96 million, made up of:
o Settlement of a dispute with the previous owners of the European
acquisition, culminating in an after tax gain of $12.74 million
o The discovery of fraud (within a New Zealand subsidiary, Daily Freight,
which is currently before the Court) with an estimated after tax cost of
$684,000, net of recoveries to date
o Balance of $97,000 relating to redundancy costs incurred in the United
States and Europe as business units have reduced team numbers.

After abnormals, a net surplus of $41.83 million was recorded, compared to
$27.74 million for the same period last year...

[Snow Leopard]

The Mainfreight Group is pleased to report a net surplus before abnormals of
$29.87 million for the first six months of our 2014 trading year. This is an
increase of 7.7% over the same period in the prior year.

EBITDA performance improved 3.7% to $63.30 million, an increase of $2.24
million over the previous year. Excluding foreign exchange effects, the
increase is 6.1%.

Total revenue (sales) increased 1.7% to $952.70 million (excluding foreign
exchange effects, this is an increase of 4.0% over the same period last
year).

The percentages that matter.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[nextbigthing]

7.7% increase sounds pretty good given Europe is still lagging. Given they have a plan to get this sorted then it's looking positive.

[winner69]

I gather they were a but disappointed in overseas performance

Essentially all the increased profit came out if nz ......rest of world just hanging in there

Stil a + sign is better than a - one eh PT

[nextbigthing]

Plus I see MFT has been endorsed by Morningstar by giving it a 'reduce' status. Ie accumulate in anyone elses book.

[gv1]

[QUOTE=Toulouse - Luzern;441376]From the first few paragraphs of the MFT release below to the NZX I calculate a 50.79% improvement. (E&OE)

"After abnormals, a net surplus of $41.83 million was recorded, compared to
$27.74 million for the same period last year."

Thanks,gotta ya, its the abnormals. It looks good then, SP doesn't reflect that though. Expect next few good years, especially US economy is improving.

[Mista_Trix]

I gather they were a but disappointed in overseas performance

Essentially all the increased profit came out if nz ......rest of world just hanging in there

Stil a + sign is better than a - one eh PT

Given the last report was wayyy worse than everyone expected, showing some positive signs is a good thing.
Especially when its still a sh*tstorm over in Europe.

[born2invest]

Anyone read the Mainfreight book released recently? It's a pretty good read.

Ready, Fire, Aim is the title.

Mainfreight buying businesses that are struggling and turning them around has been their strategy since they made their first purchase of another business so the Europe business struggling isn't a big deal. This happened in Australia for almost a decade until they sorted it out.

Because they charge a premium for better service than other trucking companies, it takes a while to build up that reputation in new markets.

[nextbigthing]

Meanwhile, MFT keeps quietly trucking on up in the background....

Disc Hold.

[Beagle]

Not much interest shown on this forum for this company but I have it on my watchlist due to its relativly inexpensive PE ratio and some growth prospects but couldn't help noticing the heavy and sustained selling pressure coming on today with more than double the normal daily volume and slipping a considerable 75 cents (5.43%). It crossed my mind to catch a falling knife at $13.00 but my sixth sense told me to stay out at this stage.

Feels a bit "fishy" to be dropping that much on no news and on much higher than normal daily volume. thoughts anyone ?

[jmsnz]

And for a private investor with a longer term horizon, how would that make a difference to the prospects of the company itself?

As a relatively unskilled investor, I Mr Market an odd person sometimes.

[Beagle]

MFT deleted from MSCI small cap index. ATM and MELCA added. XRO deleted but upgraded to global standard instead of falling off.

Hope that helps!

Thanks mate :)

[nextbigthing]

Great result. Great company. Could be in for a big year ahead if Europe sorts itself out. Can't believe this result hasn't had a mention. Not as sexy as that PEB lady I guess. She wears too much makeup anyway.

Disc; Hold.

[Beagle]

Great result. Great company. Could be in for a big year ahead if Europe sorts itself out. Can't believe this result hasn't had a mention. Not as sexy as that PEB lady I guess. She wears too much makeup anyway.

Disc; Hold.

Agreed and wish I'd bought at $13.00.

[nextbigthing]

Thoughts on the 2014 AR?

[nextbigthing]

I think I read in a previous report that they were expanding into the Ukraine. Was that happening or just a future plan? Mearly a drop in the bucket for MFT anyway but still.

Disc) Still holding

[nextbigthing]

Mainfreight as a medium term hold?

MFT last returned 66 cents per share. At the AGM it was announced they anticipated a 2.5% decrease due to the dropping of parcels in Australia as they refocus on more profitable ops there. Logically the share price dropped 2.5%. Let's say for arguments sake they now return 64cps. Closing price $10.45

.64÷10.45= 6% return (not necessarily to investors of course).

So if growth was to stop in that any increase in revenue from now was met by a corresponding increase in costs and all other factors remained more or less unchanged, this company could 'in theory' return a 6% dividend to investors. Not amazing but not that bad either. This assumes no growth.

Now look at the speeches from the AGM.

1) Our Australian operations are being hindered by a lack of capacity.

OK - let me get this straight, you're so busy you don't have enough room. Sounds like a reasonable sort of problem to have to me. How is this being resolved? You're building extra capacity in pretty much all the Australian cities over the next couple of years. Brilliant.

2) European operations are slow.

You're earning a 6% return overall with a sluggish sector dragging you down. What's going to happen when this sector picks up? Worst case should be 6% return and when it picks up, who knows.

3) New offices opening in many countries....

Shorter term sure this is costly but medium and longer term this is only going to add to marketability and efficiency and surely profits. You're carrying many of these new offices now and making 6%, so anything they can make will only add to this.

Other debatable favourable items;

Strong stable management
Proven history with strong future direction and sensible strong realistic growth
Non speculative industry. Not needing legislation against.

IMHO buying mainfreight means most likely at worst a 6% return with the likely possibility of some serious growth from new branches around the world and growth and efficiency in Australia.

What are your thoughts?


Disc; own MFT and at 10.45 considering some more!

This was posted almost exactly a year ago. The price at the time was $10.45. Todays close was $14.90. That's a 43% increase in shareprice and dividends on top of that.

This stock gets very little coverage, I guess it's just not sexy enough.

Well done to all holders.

[Beagle]

Global reach expanded = more complete product offering to customers.
Company projecting 85% of revenues to be earned outside of N.Z. by 2017.
Average EPS growth of 14% per year for the last 5 years.
Strong tailwinds from falling kiwi dollar and fuel prices.

Disc - I bought in recently.

[winner69]

Market doesn't seem to enthused with half year

Maybe just got ahead of itself

As man from salt says no downgrades, so no panic

[Snow Leopard]

Market doesn't seem to enthused with half year

Maybe just got ahead of itself

As man from salt says no downgrades, so no panic

Only two uses of the word 'good' in presentation which is more than offset by two 'disappointing' and one 'poor'

What can you expect?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/MAINFREIGHT-LIMITED-6492059/revisions/

Consensus view for 2015 prior to the above announcement was for 88 cps which on 99.57m shares ~$88m
Latest guidance suggests that analysts will be downgrading the stock. Current growth appears to have slowed materially from the 5 year average of 14% per annum EPS growth the company has previously enjoyed.
PT's post #422 was right....this investment isn't working for me so I'm out.

[Biscuit]

Better result than forecast. Seem to be sorting out the European side of the business

[gv1]

I think this will be another co posting good results.

[scamper]

Why, gv1? Has there been news since the March report?
Looks to me as though it's getting hammered like the rest of the markets.
Interesting to see how unhelpful (in fact, dead dodgy) the moving average crossovers have been since March.
Cheers.

[winner69]

I think this will be another co posting good results.

No doubt the results will be good, OKish at worst

But share prices are generally driven by sentiment.

MFT could continue to grow profits but its PE might drop from close to 20 a while ago to something like 15 or if the world collapses even to 10

Isn't that process (general negative sentiment) playing out now .....PE down to 18 .....wouldn't be surprised to see MFT at $12 or less by Christmas

[longy]

I took a bite at MFT yesterday. Got a feeling it may jump a little. Any one has any thoughts on this stock? Given commodities are not looking too good. I rather put money on something with some track of records on earnings.

[Beagle]

I saw the CEO on Q&A last Sunday morning. Basically admitted they'd misjudged Australia's slowdown and invested too much there in infrastructure, not quite in those words but if you read between the lines you will get the picture. If you go onto TVNZ's website you may be able to access last weeks programme and see for yourself what he said.
He came across as pretty stoic in terms of the downturn's effect on MFT but he would wouldn't he. I think they will get hit by the bear market just as much as anyone else and technically the stock doesn't look too flash. Dividend yield is very low and the PE is not compelling. I did hold and sold out at just on $16.00 some time back. I have no intention of getting back in until the global economic picture looks more robust.
My 2 cents...

[nextbigthing]

I'm a huge fan of Mainfreight, very well run company. However even I have sold out a while ago now, in at $10 something a couple of years ago and out at over $15 plus dividends so it has been a good run.
I don't like the look of the chart, looks to be in a reasonable downtrend now. Also, while they're a stable option, I think there's better returns out there, I don't see a stellar performance over the next couple of years with growth stifled. As KW said on another thread just recently, and she's absolutely right, 'A great company doesn't necessarily make a great investment' and unfortunately I feel MFT is a great example at the moment.

Just my opinion Longy, I'm certainly no expert. Hopefully MFT and your investment proves me wrong!

[gv1]

Yes, I bought into this as well but sold out at a loss...

[longy]

The market did not seem to like the announcement. So revenue increased as well as over head hence net profit is negative for the last six months. On the positive higher over costs were incurred to assist growth... Is this a negative aspect though? But I am guessing the not so good part is management indicated the trend pretty much the same for the rest of the year? Thoughts any one.



MFT
10/11/2015 08:30
HALFYR
PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 0830 HRS Mainfreight Limited

HALFYR: MFT: Mainfreight Results for Six Months Ended September 2015

MAINFREIGHT LIMITED

Financial result for the six months ended 30 September 2015 (Unaudited)

Commentary
Mainfreight is pleased to report our six monthly results to 30 September
2015. In this result, total revenue (sales) increased 12.9% to $1.114
billion, a record for our half year reporting. (Excluding foreign exchange
effects the increase is 5.6%).

EBITDA improved 3.3% to $71.58 million (excluding foreign exchange effects,
down 2.1%).

Net profit (before abnormals) has declined slightly, down 1.5% to $33.14
million. This is less disappointing than it appears at first sight, as it is
largely a result of increased costs that have been incurred to assist our
growth development across the business, albeit with effects of softer trading
in the domestic Australian and United States markets.

EBITDA performance improved for our Asia and Europe operations, however
declined in Australia, New Zealand and the Americas as overhead cost
increases exceeded gross margin increases.

Trading in the month of September improved across all five regional
divisions, and weekly pre Christmas volumes have been stronger through
October and now into November.

[Beagle]

An extremely disappointing result. I think they have over-invested in Australia in a slowing economy there and its come back to bite them. Very pleased I decided to sell some time back and exit this very low growth / no growth company. I am not at all surprised to see the SP coming under pressure. Really up till now they've been talking about modest EPS growth IIRC haven't they ?... so this is a stark contrast to what they've previously been signalling to the market and will likely lead to significant analyst downgrades.

[Hoop]

Wow...$15.05 down 0.95c -5.9% ..Mr Market didn't see that punch coming his way...quiet the opposite...This price drop has ended another rally of a lower high...

[percy]

Yesterday all was well, with the SP $16, the 50day EMA $15.13, and the 200 day EMA at $15.23.
Today on the announcement it all turns to custard.!

[stoploss]

I saw the CEO on Q&A last Sunday morning. Basically admitted they'd misjudged Australia's slowdown and invested too much there in infrastructure, not quite in those words but if you read between the lines you will get the picture. If you go onto TVNZ's website you may be able to access last weeks programme and see for yourself what he said.
He came across as pretty stoic in terms of the downturn's effect on MFT but he would wouldn't he. I think they will get hit by the bear market just as much as anyone else and technically the stock doesn't look too flash. Dividend yield is very low and the PE is not compelling. I did hold and sold out at just on $16.00 some time back. I have no intention of getting back in until the global economic picture looks more robust.
My 2 cents...
Good post here Roger .

[gv1]

Good post here Roger .
Yes, good post. Thanks Roger, it helped me to decide to dispose off.. I was quite surprised when it rallied

[Snow Leopard]

I made my first and third fortunes1 on good old Mainfreight, and I love their announcements; they are more than happy to use words like 'unsatisfactory'.
But I sold on the TA one day, a long time ago, when I thought it was well overpriced.

Time to read the accounts and see if we have an opportunity.

I am sure they will be back in favour at some point.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

1 well it seemed like a fortune at the time

[winner69]

Another year passes and Mainfreight keep trucking along

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/247690.pdf

[Biscuit]

Another year passes and Mainfreight keep trucking along

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/247690.pdf

Yes, they have the odd off year but the long term trend is still in the right direction

[BlackPeter]

Fisher Funds selling:

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4439834

If they use the same strategy as with their recent MPG sales, than this means MFT will get a nice uplift from here :t_up:. On the other hand, Fisher Funds are holding them for ages, they surely made a nice profit ;)

Discl: holding;

[Oliver Mander]

So what do we think of the result...slightly below consensus forecast (but slightly higher than my expectation)...
Looks like 2H wasn't good in Asia and US...any other thoughts anyone?

[Snow Leopard]

I have always liked Mainfreight and that they are willing to use words such as 'poor' and 'disappointing' up front in their results announcements.

But as they say the overall result is Satisfactory.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: I do not hold any MFT these days.

[BlackPeter]

Quite happy with the result. Not spectacular, but both revenue growth as well as earnings growth a wee bit higher than what my preferred "consensus source" predicted. Sure - Revenue growth of less than 3% is not spectacular, but turning this into a nearly 15% EPS growth is. Add to that a solid balance sheet and a team which never failed to keep the engine going ....

Happy holder - and dependent on how the markets react might this turn into a good opportunity to accumulate some more.

[Oliver Mander]

Quite happy with the result. Not spectacular, but both revenue growth as well as earnings growth a wee bit higher than what my preferred "consensus source" predicted. Sure - Revenue growth of less than 3% is not spectacular, but turning this into a nearly 15% EPS growth is. Add to that a solid balance sheet and a team which never failed to keep the engine going ....

Happy holder - and dependent on how the markets react might this turn into a good opportunity to accumulate some more.

Yup, agree - SylvesterCat is quietly purring away on this one...

[Oliver Mander]

some big movements on this recently...and yet no-one talking! Any thoughts...perhaps early signs of recovery in US and Asian business?

[forest]

Traction in Australia is very good at present due to main competitor Toll having issues with staff motivation. This lack of motivation apparently is so bad that it effects customers relations.
The result is very noticeable to MFT, in the past MFT had to approach potential new customers to grow. Now potential new customers approach MFT.
This makes life a lot easier. Toll is much larger than MFT so a lot of potential customers still to come over.

[Joshuatree]

Always appreciate your insights forest.

[Oliver Mander]

Thanks forest...great insight. Appreciated.

[babymonster]

What happen at the end of day for mft today? Not complaining tho

[RupertBear]

I am surprised to see MFT dipping down, I thought it would go the other way :confused:

[hardt]

I am surprised to see MFT dipping down, I thought it would go the other way :confused:

Trucking lobby were all over Nationals plan for better roads, Labour is feeding rail freight a big juicy bone by diverting billions of dollars from roading and into Rail.

And there are plenty MFT warehousing staff earning minimum wage...

[Harley]

I am surprised to see MFT dipping down, I thought it would go the other way :confused:

What made you think it would go the other way?

[RupertBear]

What made you think it would go the other way?

Well my simplistic view was that it is a global company and it will benefit from a lower NZ dollar. Also Craigs have it listed as a potential winner under the new government. But the points raised by hardt make sense as well.

[Oliver Mander]

Hmmm...big drop today, now nearly $2 down on its peak.
Australia not going as well as anticipated...???

[Oliver Mander]

Hmmm...big drop today, now nearly $2 down on its peak.
Australia not going as well as anticipated...???

Looks like Asia & US is the drag...wonder how the slightly reduced 1H result (vs expectations) will impact full year outlook...

[tobo]

9520
Decline was on decent volumes, but volumes much less now.
Far below 30 and 60 day MAs but RSI not actually below 20%, so is it going to stop declining?

[tobo]

I have been using Findata for charts, but they have stopped adding data since about mid Feb, so currently just using ASB charts, which is (putting it politely) limiting.
9540

[Oliver Mander]

A reasonable set of results this week, with steady (if unspectacular) growth. But is this seller slightly optimisitic or what :D
9711

[Lawstudent05]

Another great result. Steady as she goes.

[Lawstudent05]

Just keeping this thread alive,
Great company, and a very strong buying period of late pushing the SP up, nearly at $30 a share.

Anyone seen any news that has given such a push in the last 2 weeks?

[BlackPeter]

Just keeping this thread alive,
Great company, and a very strong buying period of late pushing the SP up, nearly at $30 a share.

Anyone seen any news that has given such a push in the last 2 weeks?

Not really ... one should expect that low business confidence and increasing fuel prises would hurt them, but so far it does not look that way.

And yes, while they are a great company, they do feel at the moment a bit dear. But hey - Ms Market is always right, isn't she?

Discl: holding a small parcel;

[Zeitgeist]

I guess some companies are a bit boring and don't generate much noise after releasing results on ST forums.

Bloody impressive half year results, great to see growth now across all regions.

NZD revenue growth of > 13%
NPAT growth of > 30%

Results regarded by the company as "satisfactory" :cool:

[Oliver Mander]

I guess some companies are a bit boring and don't generate much noise after releasing results on ST forums.

Bloody impressive half year results, great to see growth now across all regions.

NZD revenue growth of > 13%
NPAT growth of > 30%

Results regarded by the company as "satisfactory" :cool:

Yep, its good to see the "recovery" in those problem markets (Asia, US). Good performance to resolve issues and get growth, especially in Asia, in the current environment. A good foundation for the future.
European scale looks like its emerging nicely as well.
They look "well-positioned" to me.

Disc: happy holder.

[bull....]

fedex just released there results downgrading earnings for next yr , hence my thinking mainfreight is overvalued on a high pe

[BlackPeter]

fedex just released there results downgrading earnings for next yr , hence my thinking mainfreight is overvalued on a high pe

One of these special days ... where we both agree.

Yes, MFT looks in my view expensive as well on a (3 yr) forward PE of 21.4 and a backward (10 yr average) PE of 40. I guess they did look expensive for a long time, but given some recent PE contraction (i.e. alternatives are now cheaper) and potentially some softer business conditions for the industry ahead might the markets start to reflect on this.

[Onion]

fedex just released there results downgrading earnings for next yr , hence my thinking mainfreight is overvalued on a high pe

Amazon may be threatening Fedex -- but will that threaten MFT in the same way?

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/04/investing/ups-fedex-amazon-morgan-stanley-report/index.html


The Dow Jones Transportation Average, which includes FedEx and UPS as well as leading airlines, truckers and railroads, fell 4.4% -- its worst drop since June 2016.But Shanker paints a picture that should be extremely worrisome to UPS and FedEx.
He notes that Amazon (AMZN), which currently is leasing 40 cargo jets, could eventually have 100 planes running and estimates that the planned Amazon Air routes could overlap with more than two-thirds of the volume flown by UPS and FedEx.
That's bad news for both companies since Shanker said that UPS and FedEx each generate nearly 20% of their overall revenue from US air deliveries.

[Oliver Mander]

Result looks solid on this one also...ROCE continues to improve every year for the last 5, which is a great sign. NPAT inline with expectations, revenue growth slightly slower than I expected, although this might be exchange rate impacted. Need to read the report in detail yet...

[percy]

I thought it was an incredible result.

[Oliver Mander]

Love the quote int he report - "Whilst we will bask for a moment, savouring this result..."!!
Yes, have just read the detail on the geographic segments. Amazing - firing on all cylinders with more to come as they sort out US and expand in Asia. The European story is great too...

It all shows up in the incredible increase in operating cashflow...

[MauroNZ]

I've got the alarm in my email and read a bit. Do you know what does it mean when they say "$2.93 million relates to the further write down of the European brand name which is in the process of being discontinued". Is it something not doing well in Europe I guess?.

Considering the very very little I know about MFT, is it the current PE of 29 a decent ratio?.

Thanks.

[Oliver Mander]

I've got the alarm in my email and read a bit. Do you know what does it mean when they say "$2.93 million relates to the further write down of the European brand name which is in the process of being discontinued". Is it something not doing well in Europe I guess?.

Considering the very very little I know about MFT, is it the current PE of 29 a decent ratio?.

Thanks.

I think its to do with changing the brands they bought to enter the market, and standardising across the "Mainfreight" brand. They are writing off the brand value (non-cash) in the P&L. I don't think this is a big surprise, and relatively desirable. PE of 29 - its actually 26.3 according to my numbers. Implies a 4% return. That assumes plenty of growth priced in, which is probably about right - long term upside in Asia, US and Europe. Seems reasonable to me.

[Biscuit]

Wow! That is a very strong result, right across the business, right around the globe. What a great New Zealand company!

[babymonster]

Excellent results. I was told it’s too expensive when I bought some for $23 and it’s the only stock that I don’t need to worry about.

[MauroNZ]

Excellent results. I was told it’s too expensive when I bought some for $23 and it’s the only stock that I don’t need to worry about.

I think that is when I read the book of the company, a fascinating reading, but then I got wondering due the PE and still they delivered and the sp kept going up.

[stealthmaster]

MFT on fire!

[stealthmaster]

still increasing... what a strong company :O

[NZSilver]

Not far off $40, probably the most well managed company on he NZX

[Snow Leopard]

Nearly 15 years ago, 5th post in on this thread is me admitting to owning some MFT.
As I recall I was poor in those days and owned 3,300 shares bought for about $6,360 including brokerage.

If I still owned them they would be worth $131,340 (a 20 bagger) plus a lot of dividends (the last year $0.56 a share, which is not bad when you bought them for about $1.93 each).

I must have kept them through the GFC when the share price shed more than 50%, but somewhere along the way I sold them for about $10 each and have thus missed out on a compound 24% plus annual return over those 15 years.

Not bought back in since, always thought they were too expensive.

There is a lesson or two there.

Disc: Do Your Own Research & Make Your Own Decisions

[glennj]

I was somewhat late to the party with MFT but picked up 10,000 shares in the thirteen dollars range and have held since. It was a company brought to my attention by an FNZC broker whose colleague had been researching the company. I seldom follow broker recommendations but did in this instance and sunk half of the payout of a takeover in to this one and the other half in to EBO (my pick) of which I already held a useful number. MFT was slow to get going but has turned out well! It's a pity I didn't pick up a few more post the initial purchase. This morning noting that MFT, EBO & AIA (a long term holding) are at all time highs makes for a good start to the day. All three pay reasonable dividend yields based on the original purchase prices too.

[Biscuit]

...... somewhere along the way I sold them for about $10 each ........




That's great Snow Leopard - I bought in at about $10 in 2012: maybe I've got your shares :) ? Thanks! They have been a reasonable hold and are currently my largest holding on NZX. Great company but, like you say, the shares have been too expensive to buy in the last few years - like many assets unfortunately.

[Oliver Mander]

Has just ticked over $40!! very happy with this investment :-)!

[MauroNZ]

That's great Snow Leopard - I bought in at about $10 in 2012: maybe I've got your shares :) ? Thanks! They have been a reasonable hold and are currently my largest holding on NZX. Great company but, like you say, the shares have been too expensive to buy in the last few years - like many assets unfortunately.

Since I read their book I was looking at the company but only the share price and PE which at first look wasn't attractive so just left it, I think at that time was around $18. Though I missed to check the EPS just in case. Anyway I guess given the track they might be keep going which sometimes makes me think of venture with a small parcel an see from there.

[Biscuit]

Since I read their book I was looking at the company but only the share price and PE which at first look wasn't attractive so just left it, I think at that time was around $18. Though I missed to check the EPS just in case. Anyway I guess given the track they might be keep going which sometimes makes me think of venture with a small parcel an see from there.


I like the company. I like their attitude. Whether or not they are a good investment at the current sp price, I would guess in 10 years time they will still be a great company to own.

[MauroNZ]

I like the company. I like their attitude. Whether or not they are a good investment at the current sp price, I would guess in 10 years time they will still be a great company to own.

That was my feeling after reading their book.

[lissica]

Similar sentiments here.

I bought 1800 at $6.80 in 2007 and have never sold.

My perception of value has changed to a more long term view. Of all the rubbish I've collected over the years, my biggest regret is buying shares that are 'undervalued'.

MFT has always been expensive and I never bought anymore since 2007 :(

[MauroNZ]

Similar sentiments here.

I bought 1800 at $6.80 in 2007 and have never sold.

My perception of value has changed to a more long term view. Of all the rubbish I've collected over the years, my biggest regret is buying shares that are 'undervalued'.

MFT has always been expensive and I never bought anymore since 2007 :(

Do you remember the research you did at that time?.

[Snow Leopard]

Occaisionally I get PM's about some detail of my posts but even I have been surprised by requests to explain the bolded bit below:


Nearly 15 years ago, 5th post in on this thread is me admitting to owning some MFT.
As I recall I was poor in those days...

By several posters.


So think of me, in my Greek rental with a nice greek red wine in one hand and as the sun sets on a warm cloudless evening writing the post when this pops into my mind:


https://youtu.be/ue7wM0QC5LE

Hopefully further explanation will be unnecessary.

[kiora]

The SP has gone from $2.16 to $2.35 since Xmas and we have bids at $2.37 and sellers want $2.60 [:0]

The third quarter has just ended and I have a suspicion that some know that the future is looking bright. I have had a target price of $2.50 for the end of year announcement (late May) based upon a NPAT for Mainfreight/Owens of $10M (MFT $12M, OWN -$2M), this would give a P/E of 24. I await the quarter results announcement to update the figures.
Looking forward to the 2005-6 year then I am expecting a significant improvement on the NPAT, the SP to rise well above the market average, but the P/E to come back to something more realistic.

It's looking good [8D]

Wow PE 24 back then! That was expensive :)

[Snow Leopard]

Wow PE 24 back then! That was expensive :)

You learn a lot over the years and I never bother with P/E ratios these days, whether they be current, historic or predicted future.

Current value based on the predicted future performance of the company is a lot more fun to work out. :D

I seem to recall I had dreams of it getting to $5 a share with five years then. But it hit $8 even quicker than that. :p

[MauroNZ]

You learn a lot over the years and I never bother with P/E ratios these days, whether they be current, historic or predicted future.

Current value based on the predicted future performance of the company is a lot more fun to work out. :D

I seem to recall I had dreams of it getting to $5 a share with five years then. But it hit $8 even quicker than that. :p

Would you mind to tell a bit more of what you look for then ?. Thanks.

[stealthmaster]

on fire again!

[NZSilver]

I wouldn't be surprised if these guys face a few headwinds over the medium term with global and domestic outlook, it could be a good opportunity to buy if price comes back.

[winner69]

Another huge result from Mainfreight

I get feeling that these global headwinds companies and countries are facing are just a figurement of economists imagination which the media loves to feed upon

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFT/344208/311700.pdf

[Biscuit]

Another huge result from Mainfreight

I get feeling that these global headwinds companies and countries are facing are just a figurement of economists imagination which the media loves to feed upon

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFT/344208/311700.pdf

Nah, MFT reckon it was just a "satisfactory" result and would have been better if not for all the headwinds.

[peat]

Another huge result from Mainfreight

I get feeling that these global headwinds companies and countries are facing are just a figurement of economists imagination

there was clear shrinkage in Asia

[Oliver Mander]

Gotta love MFT's definition of 'satisfactory'...!

[winner69]

They say freight going to be impacted by the virus

Mainfreight are very resilient and been through many global crisis unscathed so should be OK this time as well.

[BlackPeter]

They say freight going to be impacted by the virus

Mainfreight are very resilient and been through many global crisis unscathed so should be OK this time as well.

fuel costs down ... must be good for the likes of MFT.

[CROESUS U.T.]

They don't own many trucks as I understand it, so negligible change. Maybe their subbies may enjoy a lift in their margins.

[macduffy]

They say freight going to be impacted by the virus

Mainfreight are very resilient and been through many global crisis unscathed so should be OK this time as well.

We should expect some impact on their business but yes, one of the better buys if their shareprice suffers a hiding along the way.

:cool:

[BlackPeter]

... and here is the second review in my wee pseudo random analysis how good analyst predictions are. Bear with me, at some stage I publish as well an overview ...

In January 2019 the peak MFT share price was $32.55 and analyst consensus for January 2020 was $30.79 - i.e. the analysts expected the MFT share price to drop over 2019. For some funny reason was their buying recommendation still on a "positive hold" (5.8/10), not quite matching their consensus.

Peak MFT share price in January 2020 was actually $43.55 (i.e. 34% up on the peak January 2019 price and 41% above their consensus prediction), i.e. share price went up significantly despite the analysts forecasting a drop.

Looking at their buy recommendation - MFT kept pace with NZX50 over the last 12 months (neither over nor under performance) - i.e. in that regard their recommendation of hold (5.8) made sense.

Lets say this is a 1:1 for the analysts - with overall score (check my previous posts) so far 1:3 against them.

[BlackPeter]

Managed to get yesterday another parcel for last years prices ($36,20) :t_up:;

Just wondering whether they will re-run this special, it certainly sold out fast ... :eek2:

[peat]

Mainfreight will be quite heavily impacted by the reduction in freight all around the world though, and I imagine even at 36 its still on a very high PE.
It wouldnt have been my favourite to buy at present although is a great company.

[BlackPeter]

Mainfreight will be quite heavily impacted by the reduction in freight all around the world though, and I imagine even at 36 its still on a very high PE.
It wouldnt have been my favourite to buy at present although is a great company.

I guess it is all how you see the future unfold ;):

At yesterdays buy price the forward PE was 22 with an forward earnings CAGR of 12.5; Not too bad for a great company.

I suspect they will as well benefit from the lower fuel prices and an increased desire of all sorts of customers to transport their goods in the coming months and years with a well established customer focused quality company (even if it is not the cheapest forwarding company). Bad service including delays, lost and damaged goods are so much dearer for the supply chain than paying a good freight company.

Both effects will be good for MFT's margins ...

[longy]

I guess it is all how you see the future unfold ;):

At yesterdays buy price the forward PE was 22 with an forward earnings CAGR of 12.5; Not too bad for a great company.

I suspect they will as well benefit from the lower fuel prices and an increased desire of all sorts of customers to transport their goods in the coming months and years with a well established customer focused quality company (even if it is not the cheapest forwarding company). Bad service including delays, lost and damaged goods are so much dearer for the supply chain than paying a good freight company.

Both effects will be good for MFT's margins ...

I have sold out years ago on this stock and regretted it ever since. Anyway, opportunity has risen and I bought back in. Beside recession and travel restriction. I guess every one seemed to have their version on how long is this episode will going to be dragged out for. Like many other stocks (beside FPH) are down in a dump... but fundamental MFT is a sound company IMHO.

[macduffy]

I agree, longy. But I'll wait until things settle before adding to my small MFT pile.