MFT - Mainfreight. Global Freight & Logistics

[Baaarney]

Interestingly today's trading update includes the following:
- that year-to-date trading, including results from January, February and early March 2020, remains ahead of the prior year.
- China volumes are re-emerging as factories and ports return to normal operations
- Our full year financial results to 31 March 2020 will reflect an improvement on the prior year.

However, no forward looking guidance so potentially rocky times ahead for the 20/21 year, especially in the US business
I will be looking to add over the next few weeks

[Biscuit]

MFT up so far today. Market liked their update. Interesting that a global transport company not seeing much in the way of negative impact yet and looking forward to China re-opening. Similar story to SKL's update. That seems not to fit with the global rolling lock-down.

[BlackPeter]

MFT up so far today. Market liked their update. Interesting that a global transport company not seeing much in the way of negative impact yet and looking forward to China re-opening. Similar story to SKL's update. That seems not to fit with the global rolling lock-down.

People still need stuff, no matter whether this is hand sanitizer, toilet paper, face masks, medication, cellphones or spares for their cars which still break down.

This is great for Freight companies, particularly if people have less other options to get what they want.

Freight companies typically one of the first getting out of a recession ... and the latest fuel prices are just an added bonus for them.

[Biscuit]

People still need stuff, no matter whether this is hand sanitizer, toilet paper, face masks, medication, cellphones or spares for their cars which still break down.

This is great for Freight companies, particularly if people have less other options to get what they want.

Freight companies typically one of the first getting out of a recession ... and the latest fuel prices are just an added bonus for them.

If you have a recession that is primarily a "services recession" that might free up consumer dollars for the non-services producers (if you can't take a vacation to Europe, you'll have plenty of dosh to splash out on a fancy new phone etc). Is it possible that transport and producers are being tarred with the same brush that should perhaps primarily be applied to the service sector?

[BlackPeter]

If you have a recession that is primarily a "services recession" that might free up consumer dollars for the non-services producers (if you can't take a vacation to Europe, you'll have plenty of dosh to splash out on a fancy new phone etc). Is it possible that transport and producers are being tarred with the same brush that should perhaps primarily be applied to the service sector?

There was only one reason shares have been down this morning across the field: PANIC ... and people who panic don't think. Everything looks like a dropout.

I.e. no point in trying to justify or understand individual prices.

I see however - MFT seems to move up again ... maybe I should have bought some more around $28 ... Sigh. But then - well possible that the current market jitter offers more opportunities to come :):

[Biscuit]

There was only one reason shares have been down this morning across the field: PANIC ... and people who panic don't think. Everything looks like a dropout.

I.e. no point in trying to justify or understand individual prices.

I see however - MFT seems to move up again ... maybe I should have bought some more around $28 ... Sigh. But then - well possible that the current market jitter offers more opportunities to come :):

Yes, hopefully there are better opportunities to come. But, I think it is useful to try to understand what is actually happening and why and therefore which shares are possibly being relatively mis-priced.

[BlackPeter]

Yes, hopefully there are better opportunities to come. But, I think it is useful to try to understand what is actually happening and why and therefore which shares are possibly being relatively mis-priced.

Absolutely. Think about what people want and need, even or particularly during any potential lock down - and access to medication, food, information, electricity and other essentials is probably at the top of the list.

Companies providing above (or are part of the required supply / transport chain) are likely to do well.

[Cadalac123]

The reaction to this is appauling and I can see how people get rich from the stock market.

I see people talking about apocalyptic type scenarios and everything and everyone going into lockdown. Interesting far the news can push peoples imagination. I guess China not being a country anymore has shown how bad the coronovirus can get /sarcasm

[peat]

Had a visit from a Mainfreight truck today. He said they are really busy.
Surprised he got me to sign a docket though. Other deliveries have now gone contactless.
And yes their comment today was most illuminating and encouraging. I almost hit the trigger haha

[Bjauck]

The reaction to this is appauling and I can see how people get rich from the stock market.

I see people talking about apocalyptic type scenarios and everything and everyone going into lockdown. Interesting far the news can push peoples imagination. I guess China not being a country anymore has shown how bad the coronovirus can get /sarcasm

It is a challenging time. However sometimes reading “catastrophising” posts can get to you after a while too.

Even when people can’t travel, the freight and trade routes have been kept open.

[Jay]

Both MFT and FHP would have a reasonably good buy a few days a go for a quick trade... if you were brave enough .. I wasn't

[macduffy]

I'm far from convinced that this is anything more than a brief relief rally, but also see it as a time to add to holdings of quality stocks. Bought a few more MFT.

[Biscuit]

I'm far from convinced that this is anything more than a brief relief rally, but also see it as a time to add to holdings of quality stocks. Bought a few more MFT.

I tend to think we are heading for a long wait for economic recovery and am not buying anything on "good" days. There will be plenty of panic ahead too I reckon. Italy not out of the woods and USA, Oz and UK currently heading deep into the woods I reckon.

[iceman]

I am pleasantly surprised with the update from MFT today. So far there has not been a huge negative effect on that and I have to say I'm surprised how well they've held up so far in all 5 geographical areas. I was expecting worse. Good also to see lots of work going on in reigning in costs, including a 50% salary and fee reduction for the CEO and Board. This is a great well run company.
https://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=5332409

[Biscuit]

I am pleasantly surprised with the update from MFT today. So far there has not been a huge negative effect on that and I have to say I'm surprised how well they've held up so far in all 5 geographical areas. I was expecting worse. Good also to see lots of work going on in reigning in costs, including a 50% salary and fee reduction for the CEO and Board. This is a great well run company.
https://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=5332409

Yes, ditto. Also amazing that they can give such frequent and detailed updates.

[kiora]

Ditto on financial reporting.This is how it should be done.
Shows why they are such a great & growing company

Looks like our exports to USA & Europe are expected to decline particularly air( food,venison hard hit I suspect)

[Bjauck]

I tend to think we are heading for a long wait for economic recovery and am not buying anything on "good" days. There will be plenty of panic ahead too I reckon. Italy not out of the woods and USA, Oz and UK currently heading deep into the woods I reckon. UK dabbled with the ridiculous* "herd immunity" initially, their death rate has soared, and their health service as result of Conservative Governments' underfunding is less able to cope with the surge in ICU cases than Italy or France. What a likely prolonged lock down, coupled with their government's insistence that nothing will hold back their break from their largest market (The EU), will do to their economy and public finances is anyone's guess. Australia perhaps is not in such a bad place as the UK. The US under Trump is doomed to go down the British route but at least they do not have anything like Brexit to cope with.

* Ridiculous because there is currently no vaccine

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/353746

FY announcement for the year end 31/3 - so with minimal Covid effect.

Divvy maintained and looks like "apples with apples" net profit up 10%

[macduffy]

Yes, a good result. Most importantly, a positive outlook for the current year.

[kiora]

Good for our exporters too
"Taking a somewhat cautious view, we expect to see Transport volumes increase; delivery expectations are being met and we have good levels of sales activity. We are seeing increased enquiry for our Warehousing solutions, and significant air freight volumes are being moved via air charters to and from Asia and the USA."

[iceman]

Yes a surprisingly good result. I did not expect them to trade this well through this COVID pandemic but April 20 is up on the previous period.
I do like very much how they have dealt with staff and costs. They stopped hiring, eliminated casual labour as much as possible, froze annual pay reviews, banned new hirings and temporarily halved the salary of CEO and Board. Talk about leadership by a great example.

[kiora]

Yes a surprisingly good result. I did not expect them to trade this well through this COVID pandemic but April 20 is up on the previous period.
I do like very much how they have dealt with staff and costs. They stopped hiring, eliminated casual labour as much as possible, froze annual pay reviews, banned new hirings and temporarily halved the salary of CEO and Board. Talk about leadership by a great example.

I agree,a company worth investing in

[Oliver Mander]

:).
"satisfactory"

gotta love the writing style. 'yeah, there was this virus thing that had a wee bit of an impact on us. april 2020 was a bit crap, but May's looking better. we've taken a few steps to help ourselves, nothing to write home about really'

Might have used the word 'stellar' myself...

[kiora]

:).
"satisfactory"

gotta love the writing style. 'yeah, there was this virus thing that had a wee bit of an impact on us. april 2020 was a bit crap, but May's looking better. we've taken a few steps to help ourselves, nothing to write home about really'

Might have used the word 'stellar' myself...

Stellar management SC most importantly

[Timesurfer]

I have to say that spike just before the freeze caught me out. I listed mine with a couple of bucks stretch thinking we might get there tomorrow or the next day. Gone and profit banked before the close of play (maybe I should have held out for more mental debate).

[Bjauck]

I see there is a disclosure that Fitts, The Europe CEO, has just bought a not insignificant 6000 more shares on market at a price of $39.99.

[Snow Leopard]

Mainfreight todays biggest upward mover. Must be something they said at the Annual Bunfight.

[iceman]

Mainfreight todays biggest upward mover. Must be something they said at the Annual Bunfight.

I was wondering why we saw such a jump today, the day after the AGM which was not broadcast online. Did some ST members join the meeting and care to comment ?

[Beagle]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/mainfreight-hailed-outstanding-recovery

I don't subscribe any more as I think $35 a month is questionable value but apparently one of the brokers is really hailing their outstanding recovery.

Disc: One of Kingfish's biggest investment positions and I have a few Kingfish warrants (KFLWF).

[iceman]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/mainfreight-hailed-outstanding-recovery

I don't subscribe any more as I think $35 a month is questionable value but apparently one of the brokers is really hailing their outstanding recovery.

Disc: One of Kingfish's biggest investment positions and I have a few Kingfish warrants (KFLWF).

Same here. Did not renew my subscription so can't read it.

[Cadalac123]

Lol i'm seeing a trend in people not renewing their NBR membership. I found they had 1 or 2 extremely good articles and the rest useless. How sad.

I've subscribed to nzherald premium.. regretting it too

[Czechmate]

Get the app version of NBR for $15. Marginal value but better than the Herald so called Premium which is laughable.

[macduffy]

Mainfreight todays biggest upward mover. Must be something they said at the Annual Bunfight.

Might be because of the much improved performance of their Aust division.

[longy]

Might be because of the much improved performance of their Aust division.

Are these figures old news? I am a bit too tired tonight to look it up.


Mainfreight’s trading figures for the 17 weeks from April 1 to July 26 showed pre-tax profit of $53.2 million, up from $44.2m for the same period a year earlier.

Revenue rose 8% to $1.19 billion.

According to its trading update, the biggest revenue gains were in Australia and Asia, up 13% to $287.9m and up 41% to $51.8m respectively.

Profitability in Australia gained 167% for a pre-tax profit of $17.9m for the period.

Bowley said an key profit driver was Australia, “where robust revenue growth and very impressive margin expansion is evident”.
Bowley said Mainfreight’s “ability to gain strength from adversity is an exception in its industry”.

He upgraded his full year underlying net profit forecast to $167.6m, from the previous forecast of $124m.

[jimdog31]

This stock just goes from strength to strength. Anybody have a view on what they think the DCF value of this share is?

[peat]

This stock just goes from strength to strength. Anybody have a view on what they think the DCF value of this share is?

Shareclarity say $31.61 making their value gap = -33%.

So. overvalued they say....

[jimdog31]

Shareclarity say $31.61 making their value gap = -33%.

So. overvalued they say....

Thanks Peat - do you agree?

[Waltzing]

When the world crashes buy the freights. Could not even get the stock in the low 20's... never been able to buy in in bulk.... overvalued? the market doesnt think so yet. Makes me sick how good this stock is. Right up there with FPH and that makes me even blue in the face... held at 3.50 and held this at 28.. Dont ever sell the freights.

[iceman]

When the world crashes buy the freights. Could not even get the stock in the low 20's... never been able to buy in in bulk.... overvalued? the market doesnt think so yet. Makes me sick how good this stock is. Right up there with FPH and that makes me even blue in the face... held at 3.50 and held this at 28.. Dont ever sell the freights.

Totally agree. Through the years commentors are always saying this stock is overvalued on metrics such as P/E, just like FPH. It was also said when I first bought in back in 2009 at $ 4.50 and I thought I was being a bit careless. Yet this very astute management comes up with the goods year after year and the SP exceeds expectations.
Both of these are an essential part of any longterm diversified portfolio.

[MauroNZ]

Totally agree. Through the years commentors are always saying this stock is overvalued on metrics such as P/E, just like FPH. It was also said when I first bought in back in 2009 at $ 4.50 and I thought I was being a bit careless. Yet this very astute management comes up with the goods year after year and the SP exceeds expectations.
Both of these are an essential part of any longterm diversified portfolio.

Would you say that "any" price should buy? When I read their book about 3 or 4 years ago it was around $17. I'm not an expert in buying value but as you say along with FPH you can't go wrong with this one.

[iceman]

Would you say that "any" price should buy? When I read their book about 3 or 4 years ago it was around $17. I'm not an expert in buying value but as you say along with FPH you can't go wrong with this one.

No I'm not suggesting that. It is important to time your entries but in today's crazy World, I find it more and more difficult. But in case you haven't read this brilliant thread https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits
then it is full of great info on how to time entries and exits. Great weekend reading :-)

[MauroNZ]

No I'm not suggesting that. It is important to time your entries but in today's crazy World, I find it more and more difficult. But in case you haven't read this brilliant thread https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits
then it is full of great info on how to time entries and exits. Great weekend reading :-)

Oh yes, thank you. I read that post a few times, still trying to practice it :).

[Biscuit]

Nice update this morning, love this company!

[Waltzing]

every crisis we have buy the freights on the big todo list but the baltic dry always gets in the way as we say wait, wait.... oh missed the boat again.

Never wait for the bottom.....

[iceman]

Nice update this morning, love this company!

Mr Market sure liked the update. Up a cool 20% odd. Like you, I love this well run company but it most certainly is not a hot favourite for discussion here on ST. Just a quiet and steady achiever :-)

[Swala]

Hi, Newbie here. I finally bought into this stock in early April at $32.32 (always seemed too expensive before). Really happy with 70% gains since then. Do you more experienced investors see this as a real growth stock for years to come?

[Biscuit]

Mr Market sure liked the update. Up a cool 20% odd. Like you, I love this well run company but it most certainly is not a hot favourite for discussion here on ST. Just a quiet and steady achiever :-)

Yes, its just a transport company, no real moat, anyone can do it. Yet it goes steadily from strength to strength, on and on without pause to global domination and beyond... They are one of the stand-out NZ companies in my mind simply from doing what they do really well, focused on a coherent plan.

[glennj]

Hi, Newbie here. I finally bought into this stock in early April at $32.32 (always seemed too expensive before). Really happy with 70% gains since then. Do you more experienced investors see this as a real growth stock for years to come?

Yes, I reckon it is still a growth stock. It has proved itself overtime. I got in to MFT at an average price of $13.80 when left with the proceeds of the Nuplex takeover. It came up on my screening but I thought it was too expensive but after a chat with someone with good knowledge of the company broke one of my investing rules and bought anyway despite reservations re the price. The rest is history. It has become my 4th best performing stock of those of which I have decent sized holdings. It would have been nice to get in on better multiples back when I did but sometimes you need to pay a bit extra for quality. I'm happy to hold at the current price.

[Biscuit]

Hi, Newbie here. I finally bought into this stock in early April at $32.32 (always seemed too expensive before). Really happy with 70% gains since then. Do you more experienced investors see this as a real growth stock for years to come?

I'd still put money on them continuing to grow in profitability, takes them time to get the most out of their expansions. I don't see any reason to think the best is behind them even, but who knows. They are 10% of my portfolio and I'm not buying or selling, just happy holding. I'm a bit biased as I just like their approach and delivery.

[Beagle]

Hi, Newbie here. I finally bought into this stock in early April at $32.32 (always seemed too expensive before). Really happy with 70% gains since then. Do you more experienced investors see this as a real growth stock for years to come?

Well regarded Kingfish - Their current biggest holding and some interesting commentary on MFT in their latest quarterly newsletter here http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KFL/361873/333416.pdf

I don't hold MFT directly but have a significant stake in Kingfish warrants. A good first question. Welcome to the forum :)

[Swala]

Thanks for the comments guys. One of the things I particularly like about Mainfreight as a company is the way their staff are fully involved and incentivised, not just employees. Seems to me a smart approach and a way to get everyone on board and contributing their best.

[Pricey]

I view it as a growth stock. MFT have very clear expansion plans in their annual report, which they continually but slowly execute.

- Americas: aim to concentrate on main cities; focus on urban development (before expanding to the regions)
- Europe: looking to continue to expand in the Netherlands, then into new countries like Spain, Italy and Germany
- NZ/AUS: intensification of urban areas to improve efficiencies
- Asia: no dedicated domestic operations – focus is on air and sea freight operations with a small amount of outsourced warehousing

All of this is investment in its "moat" and increases the offering to customers so in turn it can attract larger customers.

[iceman]

I view it as a growth stock. MFT have very clear expansion plans in their annual report, which they continually but slowly execute.

- Americas: aim to concentrate on main cities; focus on urban development (before expanding to the regions)
- Europe: looking to continue to expand in the Netherlands, then into new countries like Spain, Italy and Germany
- NZ/AUS: intensification of urban areas to improve efficiencies
- Asia: no dedicated domestic operations – focus is on air and sea freight operations with a small amount of outsourced warehousing

All of this is investment in its "moat" and increases the offering to customers so in turn it can attract larger customers.

It is hard to call it anything other than a growth stock. I've just looked and my first purchase was in July 2009 at $ 4.55. Wish I had bought more back then. At the time the view was that it was overpriced, like it has ever since. A bit like FPH, both of which I believe should be a part of any long term portfolio. Good, well managed companies at the top of their games in industries they know well.

[iceman]

Taken from a Business Desk article today. Clearly shows why this is such a well regarded company and management:

Mainfreight

At the other end of the spectrum is Mainfreight, which Midgley praised as showing the way on culture and conduct.

Mainfreight directors agreed to reduce their fees by 50 percent for a prolonged period, including managing director Don Braid. The base annual fee for Mainfreight directors is $120,000 and Braid has a base salary of $2.2 million.

Despite bouncing back well enough from lockdown to repay their wage subsidy, Mainfreight has persisted with the senior cuts, which are the largest as a percentage of annual salary/fees of any listed NZ company. Mainfreight’s share price has also bounced back to record high levels of about $54.70 per share after plummeting to $24 in late-March.

Mainfreight managing director Don Braid said the ongoing 50 percent pay cut for the board was the right thing to do, despite repaying the wage subsidy and keeping all their staff.

“We put a lot of other things in place to make sure that our costs were under control. We reduced capital expenditures so that we had a balance sheet that was in good shape.

"And about the same time, it was our decision that the directors and myself would take a 50 percent cut in salaries. The right thing to do at the time. Those cuts are still in place.”

No other staff at Mainfreight were asked to take a pay cut. In fact, they shared in a $27.6 million profit share bonus scheme for year ended March 31 in July and August, and NZ and Australian staff received 3 percent salary increases across the board in July.


https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/listed-companies/taking-one-for-the-team-which-top-businesspeople-took-a-paycut

[Bjauck]

Taken from a Business Desk article today. Clearly shows why this is such a well regarded company and management:

Mainfreight

At the other end of the spectrum is Mainfreight, which Midgley praised as showing the way on culture and conduct.

Mainfreight directors agreed to reduce their fees by 50 percent for a prolonged period, including managing director Don Braid. The base annual fee for Mainfreight directors is $120,000 and Braid has a base salary of $2.2 million.

Despite bouncing back well enough from lockdown to repay their wage subsidy, Mainfreight has persisted with the senior cuts, which are the largest as a percentage of annual salary/fees of any listed NZ company. Mainfreight’s share price has also bounced back to record high levels of about $54.70 per share after plummeting to $24 in late-March.

Mainfreight managing director Don Braid said the ongoing 50 percent pay cut for the board was the right thing to do, despite repaying the wage subsidy and keeping all their staff.

“We put a lot of other things in place to make sure that our costs were under control. We reduced capital expenditures so that we had a balance sheet that was in good shape.

"And about the same time, it was our decision that the directors and myself would take a 50 percent cut in salaries. The right thing to do at the time. Those cuts are still in place.”

No other staff at Mainfreight were asked to take a pay cut. In fact, they shared in a $27.6 million profit share bonus scheme for year ended March 31 in July and August, and NZ and Australian staff received 3 percent salary increases across the board in July.


https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/listed-companies/taking-one-for-the-team-which-top-businesspeople-took-a-paycut

Social democracy and successful private enterprise can co-exist?

[MauroNZ]

Taken from a Business Desk article today. Clearly shows why this is such a well regarded company and management:

Mainfreight

At the other end of the spectrum is Mainfreight, which Midgley praised as showing the way on culture and conduct.

Mainfreight directors agreed to reduce their fees by 50 percent for a prolonged period, including managing director Don Braid. The base annual fee for Mainfreight directors is $120,000 and Braid has a base salary of $2.2 million.

Despite bouncing back well enough from lockdown to repay their wage subsidy, Mainfreight has persisted with the senior cuts, which are the largest as a percentage of annual salary/fees of any listed NZ company. Mainfreight’s share price has also bounced back to record high levels of about $54.70 per share after plummeting to $24 in late-March.

Mainfreight managing director Don Braid said the ongoing 50 percent pay cut for the board was the right thing to do, despite repaying the wage subsidy and keeping all their staff.

“We put a lot of other things in place to make sure that our costs were under control. We reduced capital expenditures so that we had a balance sheet that was in good shape.

"And about the same time, it was our decision that the directors and myself would take a 50 percent cut in salaries. The right thing to do at the time. Those cuts are still in place.”

No other staff at Mainfreight were asked to take a pay cut. In fact, they shared in a $27.6 million profit share bonus scheme for year ended March 31 in July and August, and NZ and Australian staff received 3 percent salary increases across the board in July.


https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/listed-companies/taking-one-for-the-team-which-top-businesspeople-took-a-paycut

Thanks for sharing it.

[Sideshow Bob]

Mainfreight Half Year Financial Results 30 September 2020

11/11/2020, 8:31 amHALFYRMAINFREIGHT LIMITED
Financial result for the six months ended 30 September 2020 (Unaudited)

Commentary:

Mainfreight is pleased to announce our half-year financial results to 30 September 2020 which are in line with the guidance issued in October, and a satisfactory improvement on the same period in the prior year.

Revenue $1.609 billion Up $108.39 million or 7.2%
Profit before tax $102.26 million Up $19.42 million or 23.4%

This result reflects the strong improvement in performance in our Australian and New Zealand operations, supported by ongoing progress in our Asian business.
Profitability in the Americas continues to improve month by month, closing in on the prior year’s first half, and while our European operations are also trading behind the year prior at this point, we have seen improved trading subsequent to 30 September 2020. This supports an optimistic view of ongoing improvement in both regions, notwithstanding the reintroduction of Covid 19 related lockdowns/restrictions.
 
Divisional Performance (figures in local currencies)
New Zealand (NZ$)
Revenue $378.90 million Up $16.32 million or 4.5%
Profit before tax $37.50 million Up $2.87 million or 8.3%

Strong domestic and international volumes continue to benefit our New Zealand business units, particularly in the last three months, which has seen the impact of the Covid 19 level 4 restrictions in April and May redressed.
Ongoing customer gains and strong consumer growth trends are providing record tonnage across our Transport networks.
Warehousing activity is pleasing, albeit inventory levels are low due to congested shipping and air supply chains.
Our Air & Ocean business continues to see good results in both import and export trade. Space constraints are frustrating, but we have seen revenue levels improve, in part by increased freight rates from shipping and air lines.
Trading in October and now into November continues this improvement, with pre Christmas volumes expected to increase further and the benefit of new customers assisting.

Australia (AU$)
Revenue AU$403.21 million Up AU$42.79 million or 11.9%
Profit before tax AU$30.56 million Up AU$15.60 million or 104.3%

A very pleasing result from our Australian operations led by strong domestic transport performance.
In our Transport business, the combination of ongoing market share growth and enhanced network efficiency has seen sales revenues increase alongside improving net margins. Three branches have been opened in this half-year, with a further six planned.
Warehousing growth continues, with utilisation at 90% despite international supply chain congestion.
While profitability continues to improve in our Air & Ocean division, margins have been impacted as shipping and air freight rates increase.
Expectations are for a further increase in freight volumes pre-Christmas, and as a consequence of Victoria reopening after 112 days of lockdown.

Asia (US$)
Revenue US$42.94 million Up US$6.95 million or 19.3%
Profit before tax US$3.98 million Up US$1.48 million or 59.2%

A pleasing result from our Asian business. Demand for both shipping and air space is assisting our sales growth, albeit space availability and equipment are difficult to find. We have also seen better performance from our Southeast Asian branches, particularly as some manufacturing has moved to this region from China.
Air freight growth has been assisted by Covid-19 related tonnage, and the establishment of specialised air freight branches within the network.
Freight revenues leading into Christmas remain elevated, and we expect the current profit and revenue trends to continue.

The Americas (US$)

Revenue US$248.02 million Up US$3.98 million or 1.6%
Profit before tax US$8.50 million Down US$(1.27) million or (13.0)%

A disappointing overall result from our American businesses, particularly in our domestic Transport operations and in CaroTrans (our NVOCC wholesale sea freight business).
Improved performance in our Warehousing business has resulted in good revenue growth and increased warehouse utilisation. Additional Warehousing sites are currently being planned for Chicago and Dallas, on increased customer enquiry.
Air & Ocean revenues continue to increase, with trading in the last month exceeding expectations. Air freight in particular has shown pleasing progress.
Transport volumes were impacted during the half year, but we have seen good signs of improvement in the past month as more customers open manufacturing and warehousing activities. Customer gains have been satisfactory, and we expect sales revenues to improve with Christmas trading.
CaroTrans has been our most disappointing performer, with both revenue and profitability much reduced compared with the same period in the prior year. While trading has seen small improvements in the last month, CaroTrans’ year-end result will be behind the year prior.
A difficult first half for our American operations, however better results in October, and now into November, indicate an improved second six months.

Europe (Euro €)

Revenue €193.78 million In line with prior year

Profit before tax €7.07 million Down €(0.97) million or (12.1)%

A poorer than expected result, as our European operations continue to struggle from the economic effects of Covid-19.
Low inventory levels brought about by high consumer demand, and constrained supply chains have impacted our Warehousing profitability.
While intra-European Transport volumes have been steady, increased short-term illness has had a negative impact on efficiency levels and margins.
Air & Ocean revenues have improved, however capacity constraints across sea and air carriers have reduced margins.
Revenue growth will be aided by an amount of new business gained, and we expect improved performance through the balance of the financial year. While several European countries have recently enforced further lockdowns, activity remains consistent at pre-lockdown levels.
Group Operating Cash Flows
Operating cash flows were $188.51 million, up from $123.08 million in the prior year, reflecting increased profitability and strong cash collection.
Net debt is $115.48 million, down from $157.38 million at 31 March 2020, a decrease of $41.90 million.
Gearing ratios decreased from 14.0% at 31 March 2020 to 10.4%.
During the half-year, net capital expenditure totalled $54.83 million, with expenditure for land and buildings accounting for $31.32 million, plant and equipment of $16.01 million, and information technology of $7.50 million.
Our expectations are for capital expenditure for the full financial year ending 31 March 2021 to be in the range of $103 million. A further $114 million is estimated for capital expenditure in the 2022 financial year.
Network development remains a key strategy; a land acquisition opportunity in Auckland is likely to settle in this current financial year.
Dividend

The Directors have approved an interim dividend of 30.0 cents per share fully imputed at the 28% company tax rate, with the books closing on 11 December 2020; payment will be made on 18 December 2020. This is a 20.0% increase on the prior year’s interim dividend.

Senior Executive Retirement
Kevin Drinkwater, Mainfreight’s Global Technology Manager, has announced his intention to retire at the end of 2020. His successor will be appointed from within the business, and will be announced shortly.

Kevin’s 34-year tenure with the business has spanned a variety of roles, however his most significant contribution has been the oversight of all aspects of our Technology for the last 19 years. Thanks to Kevin and his team, we have a global business running on integrated technology platforms, providing our people with the tools and information to support our quality services, and our customers with visibility across their supply chains.
 
Outlook
A pleasing half-year result considering the slow start to the year through the Covid 19 lockdowns in the various countries and regions.
We are extremely proud of our people, across our global network, who have worked tirelessly to produce these results, navigating the hurdles and fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic and finding solutions for our customers.

We expect to see ongoing improvement across all of our regions as we continue to grow market share and adjust our businesses to the fluctuating economic climate. In Australasia, the normal pre-Christmas volume increase is expected, and is likely to be level or ahead of trading experienced last year.
Strong consumer demand and congested international supply chains are proving to be challenging for our customers and people alike. The current conditions are however providing opportunities for more growth and attracting new customers, as they look for improved service and more certainty in their freight and inventory management.

This confidence provides us with greater certainty to further invest in our network, with more regional expansion underway, and to increase our commitment to more land and buildings where appropriate.

Mainfreight will release its full-year results for the 2021 financial year to the market on 26 May 2021. It is our expectation that this full-year result will be much improved on the year prior.

For further information, please contact Don Braid, Group Managing Director,
telephone +64 9 259 5503, +64 274 961 637 or email don@mainfreight.com.

[MauroNZ]

I think the only downside of that report is that get hard to buy at a reasonable price. I know in March was a good opportunity I guess I was concerned if could go down even further. Thinks are easier with Monday's newspaper. So I guess either wait patiently for another opportunity or buy at market's price.

[Biscuit]

I think the only downside of that report is that get hard to buy at a reasonable price. I know in March was a good opportunity I guess I was concerned if could go down even further. Thinks are easier with Monday's newspaper. So I guess either wait patiently for another opportunity or buy at market's price.

If you want them in your portfolio, why not just buy them - IMHO. I will often buy companies I want over a period of time, add some anytime there is weakness, but I don't let the price stop me from taking an initial holding.

[Beagle]

WOW $60.00 !! Congrats to holders.

[macduffy]

If you want them in your portfolio, why not just buy them - IMHO. I will often buy companies I want over a period of time, add some anytime there is weakness, but I don't let the price stop me from taking an initial holding.

I'll second that strategy. I've bought many companies over the years that I thought were "too dear". I still have the likes of MFT, FPH, ATM, OCA, SUM etc in my portfolio.

:)

[MauroNZ]

If you want them in your portfolio, why not just buy them - IMHO. I will often buy companies I want over a period of time, add some anytime there is weakness, but I don't let the price stop me from taking an initial holding.

Thanks Biscuit, it seems a reasonable way.

[Pricey]

I'd be very keen for them to do a share split!

[Gunner]

I'd be very keen for them to do a share split!

Why would that be beneficial?

[Swala]

It's a strange phenomenon, but people often feel more comfortable buying stocks when the purchase price per share is less even though the actual value is the same. Also, shares often tend to rise at a faster rate for a period of time after a split.

[Pricey]

As Swala said. A high share price is often a mental barrier i.e. the company looks expensive. A lower share price looks more appealing to small investors, although it has absolutely no impact on the value of the business. Take the recent Tesla and Apple splits for example. It's purely a psychological move.

[glennj]

As Swala said. A high share price is often a mental barrier i.e. the company looks expensive. A lower share price looks more appealing to small investors, although it has absolutely no impact on the value of the business. Take the recent Tesla and Apple splits for example. It's purely a psychological move.

Pretty much! In some instances having a much larger number of shares rather than fewer of the same value is a spur to liquidity with holders being more prepared to sell. No doubt there have been studies done on this and the other psychological aspects such as low versus high share price. Years of observation tend to confirm that share splits tend to have favourable impacts on share price growth beyond what maths suggest should happen.

[macduffy]

Years of observation tend to confirm that share splits tend to have favourable impacts on share price growth beyond what maths suggest should happen.

Since when did "maths" suggest what share prices should be/should have been? Should the shareholders of the likes of CSL resent the lack of share splits? Or is this a purely NZ thing and will MFT shareholders pay if their shares aren't split?

:ohmy:

[nizzy]

I'd heard that founder Bruce Plested has a personal goal to get it to $100 a share, so why would he agree a split..He's doing OK so far, and I'm enjoying the journey. Great company.

[Pricey]

Doesn't sound like the Bruce I know ...

[iceman]

I'd heard that founder Bruce Plested has a personal goal to get it to $100 a share, so why would he agree a split..He's doing OK so far, and I'm enjoying the journey. Great company.

I'd say he doesn't give a stuff what the SP is !!

[iceman]

Another good article on this great company. https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/listed-companies/how-mainfreight-turned-disaster-into-success

I don't think it is paywalled.

[MauroNZ]

Another good article on this great company. https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/listed-companies/how-mainfreight-turned-disaster-into-success

I don't think it is paywalled.



It requires at least a login to 10 days trial to read it :(.

[iceman]

It requires at least a login to 10 days trial to read it :(.

Sorry about that. I won't break the copyright but its basically an article outlining how MFT took a different approach to many others by NOT reducing number of their "team members" (they don;t use staff or employees) but management and Board took big pay drops. Their "team members" retained their performance bonuses which resulted in a very happy workplace and great enthusiasm from the team. This has resulted in MFT raising their market share which can be seen in a big new contract with Foodstuffs and that of the 500 biggest customers (contributing half the revenue), more than 100 of them have only become customers in the last 6 months. Also talks about their "social licence" and a great culture internally and with customers. Fisher Funds and Forysth Barr are both enthusiastic with outperform ratings.

The headline says: How MFT turned a disaster (COVID) into success.

[MauroNZ]

Sorry about that. I won't break the copyright but its basically an article outlining how MFT took a different approach to many others by NOT reducing number of their "team members" (they don;t use staff or employees) but management and Board took big pay drops. Their "team members" retained their performance bonuses which resulted in a very happy workplace and great enthusiasm from the team. This has resulted in MFT raising their market share which can be seen in a big new contract with Foodstuffs and that of the 500 biggest customers (contributing half the revenue), more than 100 of them have only become customers in the last 6 months. Also talks about their "social licence" and a great culture internally and with customers. Fisher Funds and Forysth Barr are both enthusiastic with outperform ratings.

The headline says: How MFT turned a disaster (COVID) into success.

Thanks a lot iceman.

[Pricey]

Disclosure notice released this morning: Bruce has "dipped his toes in" and casually bought 100,000 shares on the open market. And here I was thinking I was going to offload some ... maybe not

[Swala]

Disclosure notice released this morning: Bruce has "dipped his toes in" and casually bought 100,000 shares on the open market. And here I was thinking I was going to offload some ... maybe not
I was thinking about topping up on this after bailing out of ATM last week. This has helped convince me this is the right move! Always a tough decision to buy near the tops but this stock is only going one way medium to long term.

[MauroNZ]

I was thinking about topping up on this after bailing out of ATM last week. This has helped convince me this is the right move! Always a tough decision to buy near the tops but this stock is only going one way medium to long term.

I have been watching this share for more than 2 years and the only one opportunity I missed to buy at a good price was last March. It seems otherwise we will only pay market price.

[Swala]

I have been watching this share for more than 2 years and the only one opportunity I missed to buy at a good price was last March. It seems otherwise we will only pay market price.
Yes, March was when I first jumped in. No regrets at all!

[Indy kiwi]

I also jumped in in March for $35.34. My only regret is that I didn't buy more.

[clown]

Added MFT to my portfolio when the SP was around $59, should have added more too. Enjoyed reading their newsletter which came through post, felt more of a personal connection than reading online. Looking forward to their next update and good to hear the chairman topped up. Probably from the $4+ mil dividend he received.

[glennj]

Some MFT traded at $64 today. Back in June 2014 I used the proceeds from the Nuplex takeover to invest in MFT adding to a small existing position. Average buy in price for the lot is a bit under $14 so it is nice to have a share price appreciation of $50 per share over approaching seven years. Like others I was perhaps irrational in not buying more once the per share price climbed up despite it appearing subsequently in my screening for value stock buys at times.

[iceman]

Some MFT traded at $64 today. Back in June 2014 I used the proceeds from the Nuplex takeover to invest in MFT adding to a small existing position. Average buy in price for the lot is a bit under $14 so it is nice to have a share price appreciation of $50 per share over approaching seven years. Like others I was perhaps irrational in not buying more once the per share price climbed up despite it appearing subsequently in my screening for value stock buys at times.

It sure has been one helluva ride. I just looked back on my first purchase of MFT in October 2009 at $5.40. I do not recall anytime in all those years that we haven't had many commentators here and elsewhere suggesting MFT being overpriced. Yeah right !

[kiora]

Some MFT traded at $64 today. Back in June 2014 I used the proceeds from the Nuplex takeover to invest in MFT adding to a small existing position. Average buy in price for the lot is a bit under $14 so it is nice to have a share price appreciation of $50 per share over approaching seven years. Like others I was perhaps irrational in not buying more once the per share price climbed up despite it appearing subsequently in my screening for value stock buys at times.

That's great return glennj
20 % compounding return over the 7 years and they way this company performs highly likely to continue

[glennj]

That's great return glennj
20 % compounding return over the 7 years and they way this company performs highly likely to continue

Now up to $64.95 now and the compounding return figure "kiora" which is 20%+ does not include the substantial dividends received over the years. The annualised percentage return now for those June 2014 purchases including the cash value of dividends received (rounded) is 27% "compounding" according to my bookkeeping software.
Merry Xmas long term MFT holders!

[glennj]

It sure has been one helluva ride. I just looked back on my first purchase of MFT in October 2009 at $5.40. I do not recall anytime in all those years that we haven't had many commentators here and elsewhere suggesting MFT being overpriced. Yeah right !

Well done you!

[percy]

Well done both of you.
Must admit I think they are currently fully valued....lol.

[macduffy]

Well done both of you.
Must admit I think they are currently fully valued....lol.

You're probably right but I'll continue to hold. Don't believe in selling good (best?) shares!

[percy]

You're probably right but I'll continue to hold. Don't believe in selling good (best?) shares!

Was only joking.
A friend has just dropped in their Newsletter December 2020, which looks as though it will be a lot of good reading.

[Lease]

Can anyone tell me, briefly, what MFT's competitive advantages are? It doesn't make sense to me a logistic company, with intensive competition around, with limited world trade growth, why its SP rise constantly over the past 5 years?

[winner69]

As Mainfreight say - “ Special people, special company” embodies Mainfreight and its unique culture. We have developed a style of doing business successfully not only in New Zealand, but around the world.

That style of business is their ‘moat’ for want of a better word .....makes them great service and happy customers.

And very efficient at managing margins and costs.

A fre years old this but shows how they make good profits. I was working for a company who used Mainfreight for their logistics ...multi million $ contracts. Our Supply Manager and Purchasing people would always rave about how they got a great deal from Mainfreight in annual reviews. We became more cost efficient and productive wichbwasvgood ....but I had to reminding our Supply Chain people that Mainfreight kept increasing their reported margins as well.

Percy will tell you to read Ready Fire Aim: The Mainfreight Story ...great story

Mainfreight is no ordinary logistics company

[Greekwatchdog]

Hate to put a damper on it W69, but I have been dealing with then for 25 years. I find them ignorant and Arrogant. Don't update their tracking systems and their handling of product for mine bemusing. Cant figure out if the industry is just plain useless or these guys are so big that they are able to hide their inefficiencies.
Anyway congrats to shareholders but your company is far from perfect to deal with.

[glennj]

Can anyone tell me, briefly, what MFT's competitive advantages are? It doesn't make sense to me a logistic company, with intensive competition around, with limited world trade growth, why its SP rise constantly over the past 5 years?

They consistently seem to steal market share and still be profitable so they are doing some things right. Their good treatment of staff, owner drivers etc. seems to create an "attitude" advantage over competitors.

[Bjauck]

It sure has been one helluva ride. I just looked back on my first purchase of MFT in October 2009 at $5.40. I do not recall anytime in all those years that we haven't had many commentators here and elsewhere suggesting MFT being overpriced. Yeah right ! MFT have helped transport your portfolio to deliver good returns ;)

FPH have been one of those stocks that has been "overpriced" over the years too!

[iceman]

Can anyone tell me, briefly, what MFT's competitive advantages are? It doesn't make sense to me a logistic company, with intensive competition around, with limited world trade growth, why its SP rise constantly over the past 5 years?

Like winner has said, I think their moat is the culture in the business lead by very able management, although not all customers will be happy as Greekwatchdog has pointed out. But I do note he/she has been doing business with them for 25 years so can't be all bad.

I think the fact that they decided early on to keep all "team members" on during COVID and encourage them to go out and be more visible with customers, resulting in over 100 new contracts that are now in their top 500 customers, says a lot about this business.
Management and Board also lead with temporary remuneration decreases and did not keep any wage subsidies.
This is the sort of can do attitude I like to see in the businesses I invest in and I have little doubt MFT should be a part of any long term NZX portfolio.

[Greekwatchdog]

Hi Iceman, On most occasions I don't get a choice as its dictated by supplier who pay's for freight, thou its already costed in product. If I had the choice I would have certainly changed or had them on notice. You still need to make sure next choice can do what they say they can.
Happy for shareholders but its not all Sweet smelling Roses at base level.

[clown]

The company I work for used CaroTrans for a while, their rates were cheaper for some routes, eg US but closer destinations were higher. The account manager I dealt with was top notch and professional. Other than shipping rates, I have no complaints, don't use them anymore as cost cutting measures have become a priority, we used to do about 12-14 shipments in the past few years, this year we've done 37 and still counting, so you can see how much volume has gone up for freight companies, so have the costs by shipping companies too. Happy to hold this one long term.

[porkandpuha]

Disc: Don't hold, never have, and probably never will as I work for a competitor so take this comment as you please but we had 2 fairly big clients jump ship from MFT to our stable on the back of COVID and MFT's inaction when it come to servicing their client base and keeping up comms during a period of uncertainty for logistics. Seemed to be a common theme for at least one of their departments in NZ.

I too hear of their great culture from friends and family currently employed by MFT and acknowledge this no doubt helps with the likes of staff retention, skill levels and productivity, but I do wonder how this translates into bottom line for company. At the end of the day, cargo does not often need special treatment and the market will seek out the cheapest levels without the bells and whistles when it comes to moving something from A to B.

It certainly is a case of a rising tide lifting all boats when it comes to the freight world today, and its looking a lot more positive than it did 6 months ago.

[Pricey]

Finding a competitive advantage from a product perspective might be quite hard because at the end of the day MFT move goods from A to B. But MFT has exceptional management and have proven to be a very efficient operator in this industry. You can see from their Annual Report and how they describe their expansion plans how well-thought out the business is:

- Americas: aim to concentrate on main cities; focus on urban development (before the regions)
- Europe: looking to continue to expand in the Netherlands, then into new countries like Spain, Italy and Germany; seems to be their main growth target – needs to be
more profitable to justify more sites and expansion
- NZ/AUS: intensification of urban areas to improve efficiencies
- Asia: no dedicated domestic operations – focus is on air and sea freight operations with a small amount of outsourced warehousing.

It's easy to see how the story could unravel: expand too quick, open up inefficient and costly warehouses, failing to deliver on time or not having enough reach.

[alokdhir]

Just a simple question to all MFT experts here ...

If one has to invest now and only in one company ....FPH @ 34 or MFT @ 66 ??

And some reasons also ...please !

[hamish]

If anyone ever gets a chance.. Listen to Don Braid speak in person.. This may help illuminate why they do so well. Have heard him 3 times, goosebumps eveytime. Comes across to me as deep intimate knowledge of the business they are in along with the culture to succeed. Hoping to hear him again in 2021

[Louloubell]

If that is the choice given I would go for EBO. 😜

[ThaiJohn]

Touching 70 bucks with few sellers :scared:

[iceman]

Touching 70 bucks with few sellers :scared:

Speeding ticket coming from NZ RegCo ??

[Pricey]

Need them to slow down - happy for them to keep going once the 2021 Stock Picking competition starts!

[Swala]

Need them to slow down - happy for them to keep going once the 2021 Stock Picking competition starts!
Absolutely agreed!

[winner69]

Businessdesk notes Bruce Plested, Mainfreight shares were worth $1.07 billion on Thursday.

Well done Bruce

Also rubbed Richard Prebbles nose in the dirt - pointed out he once had 550,000 shares - but sold most during the GFC around $5 - if he still had them they be worth $37m - but stillholds a few currently worth $6m (Prebble a Director)

[CraftyBeer]

Businessdesk notes Bruce Plested, Mainfreight shares were worth $1.07 billion on Thursday.

Well done Bruce

Also rubbed Richard Prebbles nose in the dirt - pointed out he once had 550,000 shares - but sold most during the GFC around $5 - if he still had them they be worth $37m - but stillholds a few currently worth $6m (Prebble a Director)

Bought into the IPO at .95 in 1996 and sold a year later at 1.55 to help with buying a house. Only a few (not as 'few' as Prebble lol) but definitely should have put those ones away in the bottom drawer. An amazing performer.

[Bjauck]

Bought into the IPO at .95 in 1996 and sold a year later at 1.55 to help with buying a house. Only a few (not as 'few' as Prebble lol) but definitely should have put those ones away in the bottom drawer. An amazing performer.
That was still a good return for the period you owned the shares though. IPOs carry a risk. Plus there was still a risk of change in personnel etc and a chance it may have underperformed. I guess we can't (and shouldn't) put all our shareholdings in the bottom drawer.

[CraftyBeer]

That was still a good return for the period you owned the shares though. IPOs carry a risk. Plus there was still a risk of change in personnel etc and a chance it may have underperformed. I guess we can't (and shouldn't) put all our shareholdings in the bottom drawer.

Yes very true. We also sold Telstra at the time for over $10 - it's all swings and roundabouts.

[Sideshow Bob]

Fisher Funds selling down (a little)

Microsoft Word - SSH-Ceasing-14.04.2021-MFT (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFT/370646/344161.pdf)

[alokdhir]

What is the consensus about MFT FY21 results coming up ...

[winner69]

What is the consensus about MFT FY21 results coming up ...


I reckon npat of 172m ...market might be disappointed if that the case

Not the consensus of course ....need more guesses eh

[alokdhir]

I reckon npat of 172m ...market might be disappointed if that the case

Not the consensus of course ....need more guesses eh

U r not in positive mood these days ...maybe u dont like large caps ...too boring for u ...lol :p

[alokdhir]

They did write in 6 monthly report that expect a much better result ahead ...so expecting 20% eps growth !

Mainfreight will release its full-year results for the 2021 financial year to the market on 26 May 2021. It is our expectation that this full-year result will be much improved on the year prior.

[winner69]

They did write in 6 monthly report that expect a much better result ahead ...so expecting 20% eps growth !!

So npat over 190m then ....maybe 200m ....that be good

Think BlackPeter has tempered my optimism with what he said on the fph thread .....being a less optimistic today

[alokdhir]

So npat over 190m then ....maybe 200m ....that be good

Think BlackPeter has tempered my optimism with what he said on the fph thread .....being a less optimistic today

Most likely over 210 M base case ...

Dont let BP get to u ...he doesn't like High backwards PE stocks ....But quality of earnings and management matters to market ...ATM didn't have both and result was at first hurdle they failed

On the other hand MFT used the pandemic troubles to consolidate their position further ...same FPH is a manufacturing company ...to ramp up output to double levels in such short time got them Company of the year award ...They got opportunity they managed to cash it fully ...Great management both MFT and FPH ...thats why maybe markets gives them higher PE multiples

[macduffy]

The law of large numbers makes it difficult, if not improbable, that MFT can surpass last year's numbers by 20%. I reckon +10% will be great!

[Rawz]

The law of large numbers makes it difficult, if not improbable, that MFT can surpass last year's numbers by 20%. I reckon +10% will be great!

Tell that to trillion dollar company Amazon

[winner69]

Most likely over 210 M base case ...

Dont let BP get to u ...he doesn't like High backwards PE stocks ....But quality of earnings and management matters to market ...ATM didn't have both and result was at first hurdle they failed

On the other hand MFT used the pandemic troubles to consolidate their position further ...same FPH is a manufacturing company ...to ramp up output to double levels in such short time got them Company of the year award ...They got opportunity they managed to cash it fully ...Great management both MFT and FPH ...thats why maybe markets gives them higher PE multiples

Jeez 210m ful year would mean H221 up by 60% plus

Macduffy is an old guru whose been on here for decades - his +10% full year probably closer to the mark - but my 172m is +17%

Be interesting

[alokdhir]

Jeez 210m ful year would mean H221 up by 60% plus

Macduffy is an old guru whose been on here for decades - his +10% full year probably closer to the mark - but my 172m is +17%

Be interesting

My bad ...I took Profit before tax of H121 ....so your 172 is just short of mine now ...Me looking for YoY Eps + 21%

ie 189 mil

[winner69]

Hey alokdhir - I'm intrigued by your handle alokdhir

I've tried rearranging the letters to see if its just an anagram of something interesting but no joy

Just a random selection of letters ....or does alokdhir mean something meaningful

Cheers

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=winner69;883537]Hey alokdhir - I'm intrigued by your handle alokdhir

I've tried rearranging the letters to see if its just an anagram of something interesting but no joy

Just a random selection of letters ....or does alokdhir mean something meaningful

Cheers[/QUOTE


Its only meaningful to me buddy ...its my full name ...lol :D

[winner69]

[QUOTE=winner69;883537]Hey alokdhir - I'm intrigued by your handle alokdhir

I've tried rearranging the letters to see if its just an anagram of something interesting but no joy

Just a random selection of letters ....or does alokdhir mean something meaningful

Cheers[/QUOTE


Its only meaningful to me buddy ...its my full name ...lol :D



You quite famous eh

Apologies for being inquisitive in first place

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=alokdhir;883539]



You quite famous eh

Apologies for being inquisitive in first place

Famous or otherwise ...dont know about that ...

No worries buddy ...all good :p

[stoploss]

[QUOTE=alokdhir;883539]



You quite famous eh

Apologies for being inquisitive in first place
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uq-gYOrU8bA

[BlackPeter]

Most likely over 210 M base case ...

Dont let BP get to u ...he doesn't like High backwards PE stocks ....But quality of earnings and management matters to market ...ATM didn't have both and result was at first hurdle they failed

On the other hand MFT used the pandemic troubles to consolidate their position further ...same FPH is a manufacturing company ...to ramp up output to double levels in such short time got them Company of the year award ...They got opportunity they managed to cash it fully ...Great management both MFT and FPH ...thats why maybe markets gives them higher PE multiples

Amazing - no need for me to post anymore given that people now seem to start to make up what I like or not.

Just for the record - you did guess wrong. I do like both FPH as well as MFT, think however that FPH is currently too dear.

Looking at MFT however, I do not just like it, I hold it as well.

Just to amuse winner - backward PE (10yrs) for MFT is 67, which looks still comparatively cheap compared to FPH which would have for the same timeframe a backward PE of 100.

More interesting - forward PE (3 years) for MFT is 36, which does not look too dear in combination with a forward earnings CAGR of 11.

While both MFT as well as FPH appear currently comparatively dear, I do see MFT at current share price as the better value from the two. As well - FPH will no doubt need to shrink a bit back if & when the Covid inflated market goes back (and this is what analyst forecasts show as well), while MFT is in my view likely to keep growing and can command very healthy margins thanks to the problems in the transport industry (long may they last - wishes of a selfish shareholder). Customers don't ask these days for discounts, they are already delighted if they receive their goods at all. Receiving them on time is already exceeding expectations!

discl: bought a year ago a large parcel and am now seriously overweight (not talking about my BMI - lol), but still not selling. This should clarify my position :):

[winner69]

MFT still pretty cheap in big picture of things


Share price could even hit 100 bucks by the end of the year

[winner69]

MFT 100 bucks soon?

but BP hasn't so far seen so far seen a company with a sustainably exponential development of the share price. But who knows, maybe MFT is the first

[BlackPeter]

MFT 100 bucks soon?

but BP hasn't so far seen so far seen a company with a sustainably exponential development of the share price. But who knows, maybe MFT is the first

Have you? Has anybody?

[Biscuit]

Have you? Has anybody?

Ah, Enron? Oh no, wait

[alokdhir]

MFT still pretty cheap in big picture of things


Share price could even hit 100 bucks by the end of the year

Being a holder of MFT / FPH since 2013 in equal proportions ....I have seen both doing well in turns but MFT is more steady and stable performer ...where as FPH moves a lot but FPH business is more secure and hard to replicate . MFT is based on quality of its management and their very stable deliverance of growth and profits while implementing or adding new geographies . Covid has helped both as it separated men from boys

MFT at $ 100 possible by year end IMHO :t_up:

PS : FPH will always command higher multiples then MFT because of niche sector and hard to replicate business model ( More high tech and R&D ...patents and IP wealth )

[macduffy]

MFT at $ 100 possible by year end IMHO

Doesn't hurt to talk it up ? Or is this classed as ramping?

:ohmy:

[Sideshow Bob]

Doesn't hurt to talk it up ? Or is this classed as ramping?

:ohmy:

Maybe why the price has gone up 1% today!

Market cap only needs to go up another $2.4 billion for todays levels.....in the next 7 months.

Mind you, stranger things have happened.

[winner69]

75 —-> 76 —-> 80 —-> —-> 100

No worries

[alokdhir]

75 —-> 76 —-> 80 —-> —-> 100

No worries

Already 77 ...then 81 ...to 91 ... 100 almost there ...:t_up:

[alokdhir]

Record results ...big surprise on revenue side ...NP 188.11 Mil ...close to my expectations of 190 Mil ...Market was expecting 183 Mil

Market revenue expected was around 3300 Mil ...they achieved 3544 Mil ..:t_up:

[Leftfield]

Being a holder of MFT / FPH since 2013 in equal proportions ....I have seen both doing well in turns but MFT is more steady and stable performer ...where as FPH moves a lot but FPH business is more secure and hard to replicate . MFT is based on quality of its management and their very stable deliverance of growth and profits while implementing or adding new geographies . Covid has helped both as it separated men from boys

MFT at $ 100 possible by year end IMHO :t_up:

PS : FPH will always command higher multiples then MFT because of niche sector and hard to replicate business model ( More high tech and R&D ...patents and IP wealth )

Well done..... you can't beat quality!

[porkandpuha]

Record results ...big surprise on revenue side ...NP 188.11 Mil ...close to my expectations of 190 Mil ...Market was expecting 183 Mil

Market revenue expected was around 3300 Mil ...they achieved 3544 Mil ..:t_up:

Forbar preview yesterday estimated 190.5m but close enough. Nice result either way

[Biscuit]

Well done..... you can't beat quality!

Too true, my biggest NZX holding. Good result, profit before tax up up 27%, even Mainfreight management seem to think it is satisfactory:

"... we are bloody proud of our people who have delivered this record result..."

[Rawz]

Great result but gee this is expensive isnt it?

[alokdhir]

Well done..... you can't beat quality!

IMHO there are only two buy and forget kind of stocks on NZX ...MFT and FPH ...now both looking richly valued ...but maybe in next 5 years time they will still be able to give more then market returns ...:t_up:

[Rawz]

Great result but gee this is expensive isnt it?

[Rawz]

Great result but gee this is expensive isnt it?

But guess Ill be saying this next year when the SP is 100 bucks.

[newtrader]

Great result but gee this is expensive isnt it?

Great result, great quality company. But it does seem the future growth outlook is already priced in.

disc: hold

[Biscuit]

MFT report they are now chartering ships to provide goods transport between NZ and China. They are a real shipping company now! That's an exciting development.

[winner69]

Initial enthusiasm waned and share price ended the day 2.6% down from days high ...quite a swing after a good start

Tomorrow’s action could be interesting

[alokdhir]

Initial enthusiasm waned and share price ended the day 2.6% down from days high ...quite a swing after a good start

Tomorrow’s action could be interesting

After all they run diesel engines ...takes time to warm up :p

[porkandpuha]

MFT report they are now chartering ships to provide goods transport between NZ and China. They are a real shipping company now! That's an exciting development.

That all happened at the start of COVID before the government IAFC scheme was implemented. I think they reported them in the half year? Some of those charters were merely filling up planes for the return leg as the inbound flight was chartered to bring in PPE to NZ. Doesnt happen much any more.

[Yoda]

In the first seven weeks of trading into the 2022 financial year, we have
seen similar activity levels as those of the past six months. This gives us
confidence that we will deliver further improved results in the near term.

We continue to be optimistic and, it has to be said, we are bloody proud of
our people who have delivered this record result.

Nice wording :-) . don't often see that haha. $100 by Christmas ?

[winner69]

Seems share price going to hang around $75 for a while

Hope there’s no drastic market re-rating ir correction

[alokdhir]

Seems share price going to hang around $75 for a while

Hope there’s no drastic market re-rating ir correction

Been told that it has massive resistance at $ 76 level ...not easy to cross soon ...So consolidate here is good outcome ...70-75 range hopefully

Insider selling report around $ 74.20 spooked people !!

[maclir]

Closed the day at 76.25, so let's see if that holds tomorrow.

[nztx]

5 weeks ahead of going x Div - what normally happens heading towards Div date ? ;)

Ok .. sure it's a fairly small dividend yield, but nevertheless ..

I remember this one @ around $60 not so long ago & had thoughts (like some) of being expensive / low yield
then, but MFT has still continued running upwards ..

perhaps the next 6 months may see NZ 100 apiece ? ;)

[Bjauck]

Seems share price going to hang around $75 for a while

Hope there’s no drastic market re-rating ir correction $79.44 average target price from 4 brokers on Marketscreener, with 2 recommending "buy", 1 "outperform" and 1 "hold".

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MAINFREIGHT-LIMITED-6492059/consensus/

[Joshuatree]

Bruce Plested selling down some, been offered some shares but discount not enough after brokerage.Blue chip share for sure.

[sb9]

1mln lot got traded pre-market at $75 a piece.

[Biscuit]

I see MFT hit $80 yesterday, wow. They trucking along nicely!

[ThaiJohn]

Dividend due shortly. Once it goes ex I think I'll jump in.

[winner69]

Dividend due shortly. Once it goes ex I think I'll jump in.

Buy today and get the 45 cents for certain …..share price mightn’t fall the 45 cents when ex divie

[BlackPeter]

Dividend due shortly. Once it goes ex I think I'll jump in.

Interesting strategy ... why would you wait for Ex? I guess we could have a discussion about whether $80 for MFT is too dear, but what impact would have the small dividend (Cum or Ex) on its SP? Do you expect SP to drop more than the amount of the dividend after Ex? This is not what normally happens to MFT - typically quite the opposite.

Discl: grew into my largest NZX holding ...

[ThaiJohn]

Just a situational thing. I don't chase divvys.
I believe it will reach $100 p/s by end of year.

[winner69]

Expensive or whatever — I think it was Mark Lister from Craig’s who said that MFT having such a high price is a ‘badge of honour’

[BlackPeter]

Expensive or whatever — I think it was Mark Lister from Craig’s who said that MFT having such a high price is a ‘badge of honour’

Hmm - personally I prefer to make investment decisions independent from other peoples assessments of "honour".

Too many discredited "honorables" around. These days honour is a pretty meaningless term, really.

MFT is a well run company and got in the current environment a big shot into the arm given the Covid related transport mess. Any company still able to move freight is able to command a premium on their prices (and I recon as well share price).

How long this premium will last is anybody's best guess - and I am not pretending that I know more about the future Covid development and its impact on transport than anybody else. However - at some stage we will come back to normal - whatever this is. Competition will grow in any industry with super margins and margins (and price premiums) will drop again.

But anyway - still holding, i.e. I must think as well that for MFT the best is still to come (borrowed this phrase from Sir Angus).

[alokdhir]

ASM on 29th July ...what expect to hear ? Also what are short term SP trends ? Any thoughts ....please share

[BlackPeter]

ASM on 29th July ...what expect to hear ? Also what are short term SP trends ? Any thoughts ....please share

Well, this is what I would expect:

Things going really well. Company is paying lots of taxes and proud to do so. Major focus to green up their buildings - and yes, margins are great in a world where reliable transport is sought after and hard to find. Their product clearly can command a premium in todays world :);

[flyinglizard]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFT/376427/351230.pdf

good result, the industry runs well.

[winner69]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFT/376427/351230.pdf

good result, the industry runs well.

Like the use of 'satisfactory'

- Expect half-year to be satisfactorily improved on prior period
- Full-year result should be satisfactory

[alokdhir]

Well, this is what I would expect:

Things going really well. Company is paying lots of taxes and proud to do so. Major focus to green up their buildings - and yes, margins are great in a world where reliable transport is sought after and hard to find. Their product clearly can command a premium in todays world :);

What I expected happened today ....stock up 5% and maybe some more tomorrow . Maybe time is coming for it to consolidate around 79-80 levels after that but best long term buy ever :t_up:

[iceman]

A stunning performance once again from this great company. Happy holder.

[winner69]

Only 78% voted for our man Prebble be re-elected Director

Hope he got the message

[BlackPeter]

Like the use of 'satisfactory'

- Expect half-year to be satisfactorily improved on prior period
- Full-year result should be satisfactory

Actually - they even are able to top that:

"Air & Ocean contribution very satisfactory;"

Apparently "very satisfactory" is used when they are talking triple digit increases (like above 100%). Anything below that is just "satisfactory".

What can I say? I find it quite satisfactory to hold Mainfreight shares - and actually, the share price since March 2020 (that's when I bought in) developed "very satisfactory" :t_up: ;

Good company - long may it last :):

[iceman]

This article on Business Desk by Bryan Gaynor is a must read for MFT shareholders.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/mainfreights-amazing-success-story

I particularly like these quotes from Bruce Plested at the IPO:

“We are creating a 100 year company. You don’t get that by cutting corners.” The founders letter, signed by Plested and Graham, had several pertinent comments including: “You are about to learn some of the secrets of this very Kiwi company started in Auckland in 1978 with a paid up capital of $7,200.” “We decided to imagine that the business was going to last for a hundred years.” “We will continue to be close to and understand the business of our customers.” “We will continue to promote from within, to seek high energy, intelligent, personable and educated people.” “With a public float these people will have the opportunity to become shareholders and take ownership of the success they help to create.”

[iceman]

I hesitantly picked up a few of these yesterday at $ 83.30 thinking, as I almost always do when I add a few MFT, that the SP is overcooked. Yet 24 hours later it's up 5% to yet another ATH. What a great share to have in the portfolio.

[Old mate]

Unreal alright. Volume looks pretty low though. NZX on fire today. Who would have thought:ohmy:

[Rawz]

MFT a beautiful company but holy heck it is overvalued???? Going off ASB securities its on a 46 P/E vs say that of EBOS at 27.

Why does MFT currently trade at double its historical PE?
What happens when one year they turn in a poor performance compared to market expectations? If they get re-rated back down to somewhere in the 20s it would be painful.

Disc. Never held. Wish I do. Thought it was expensive at $53. Now $86. See you at $100.

[winner69]

Only about 15% off 100 bucks ….go Mainfreight

[Biscuit]

MFT a beautiful company but holy heck it is overvalued???? Going off ASB securities its on a 46 P/E vs say that of EBOS at 27.

Why does MFT currently trade at double its historical PE?
What happens when one year they turn in a poor performance compared to market expectations? If they get re-rated back down to somewhere in the 20s it would be painful.

Disc. Never held. Wish I do. Thought it was expensive at $53. Now $86. See you at $100.


It's like FPH - its got growth in its DNA. You always have to pay too much for it but down the track you're pleased you did.

[Rawz]

It's like FPH - its got growth in its DNA. You always have to pay too much for it but down the track you're pleased you did.

But the big re-rating only came after covid. Why?
Otherwise always traded on a lower multiple.
FPH always traded on high multiples so no re-rating.

Have people just decided they would rather own MFT than cash? I once heard that about google. Better to own google than cash- something like that.
Or is this an overseas index thing or something?

[Biscuit]

But the big re-rating only came after covid. Why?
Otherwise always traded on a lower multiple.
FPH always traded on high multiples so no re-rating.

Have people just decided they would rather own MFT than cash? I once heard that about google. Better to own google than cash- something like that.
Or is this an overseas index thing or something?

All I know is that selling down FPH a few years ago because it looked ridiculously overvalued cost me a heck of a lot of money so now I just let them (FPH and MFT) run. I'd buy more if there was a general pull back but otherwise I just let them run. One day they will run out of puff. But that's not today and probably not tomorrow.

[Mista_Trix]

All I know is that selling down FPH a few years ago because it looked ridiculously overvalued cost me a heck of a lot of money so now I just let them (FPH and MFT) run. I'd buy more if there was a general pull back but otherwise I just let them run. One day they will run out of puff. But that's not today and probably not tomorrow.

How do you decide when to sell when that time does come? Or rebalance etc?

[alokdhir]

But the big re-rating only came after covid. Why?
Otherwise always traded on a lower multiple.
FPH always traded on high multiples so no re-rating.

Have people just decided they would rather own MFT than cash? I once heard that about google. Better to own google than cash- something like that.
Or is this an overseas index thing or something?

MFT is the strongest stock of NZ market ( Long term Investment Grade I talking about ) since it got listed

KFL has it in its portfolio since 2004 and they still love it

Its given compounded 30% + return over last 15 years and its doing better then FPH on that time frame too

Also at present MFT is like GOLD ...they can actually move freight and keep reasonable delivery standards too

MFT even if u buy now at $ 88 ....U will never regret it ...

[Rawz]

MFT is the strongest stock of NZ market ( Long term Investment Grade I talking about ) since it got listed

KFL has it in its portfolio since 2004 and they still love it

Its given compounded 30% + return over last 15 years and its doing better then FPH on that time frame too

Also at present MFT is like GOLD ...they can actually move freight and keep reasonable delivery standards too

MFT even if u buy now at $ 88 ....U will never regret it ...

I agree with everything you say.
I just don't understand why it has been re-rated so highly now when as you say it has always produced the goods for 15 years.

I can't bring myself to buy it at these levels. If like a lot of you had purchased in the $20's $30's etc i would not be selling now.
Maybe that's the issue, nobody dares sell their original holdings, so buyers have no choice but to bid it up.

[alokdhir]

I agree with everything you say.
I just don't understand why it has been re-rated so highly now when as you say it has always produced the goods for 15 years.

I can't bring myself to buy it at these levels. If like a lot of you had purchased in the $20's $30's etc i would not be selling now.
Maybe that's the issue, nobody dares sell their original holdings, so buyers have no choice but to bid it up.


Yes thats the case too ...why should anyone sell if it keeps doing the best job possible

Yes someone bought a big lot of 22K so he needed to ramp up the price till $ 88 ...But if u see MFT's long term chart ...once it goes up not even goes down 5-7% from top .

[Biscuit]

How do you decide when to sell when that time does come? Or rebalance etc?

At the moment MFT have a growth strategy that they execute well. They don't appear to be reaching the limits of that strategy anytime soon. Eventually they will or else in some other manner they will lose their way. Then I'd sell out but as long as they are going for global domination there is more risk in selling than holding. I bought at around $10 and I will at some point take a bit of a profit if they stop their upward trend.

[101nick101]

Had to put myself in the naughty corner having sold at $84.50 will buy back in if/when it dips again.

[Biscuit]

I agree with everything you say.
I just don't understand why it has been re-rated so highly now when as you say it has always produced the goods for 15 years.

I can't bring myself to buy it at these levels. If like a lot of you had purchased in the $20's $30's etc i would not be selling now.
Maybe that's the issue, nobody dares sell their original holdings, so buyers have no choice but to bid it up.

I think also, that companies that performed well "during covid" have been re-rated up "after covid". The covid effect on the market wasn't that traumatic. Everyone stayed home and half the population became an online share investor.

[iceman]

Had to put myself in the naughty corner having sold at $84.50 will buy back in if/when it dips again.

Why ? have you held it long ? My first purchase was in 2009 at $ 4.25 if I remember correctly. Have added every now and then and stupidly sold a few in the first 5-6 years. Stopped that long ago and just let them run and add a few infrequently.

[Rawz]

This is from Morningstar:

Year and P/E
2013 PE 16.49
2014 PE 17.98
2015 PE 18.49
2016 PE 19.98
2017 PE 22.02
2018 PE 21.93
2019 PE 25.59
2020 PE 21.39
2021 PE 37.15
Current PE 44.46

EPS AND % GAIN
2013 68.53eps
2014 78.04eps 14%
2015 83.66eps 7%
2016 88.22eps 5%
2017 102.60eps 16%
2018 112.16eps 9%
2019 140.10eps 25%
2020 161.56eps 15%
2021 186.80eps 16%

Guess from 2017 growth has really taken off. Like a rocket. And thats when the re-rating started building. (Aside from 2020 covid year, these numbers are as at 31 March). Gee whoever purchased during covid lows really got a bargain.

[Bjauck]

Why ? have you held it long ? My first purchase was in 2009 at $ 4.25 if I remember correctly. Have added every now and then and stupidly sold a few in the first 5-6 years. Stopped that long ago and just let them run and add a few infrequently.
A family member reduced their holding a few years ago too (it had grown to dominate their portfolio.)
It depends what you do with or need to buy with the proceeds too.

The swings and roundabouts of investing in shares.

[BlackPeter]

But the big re-rating only came after covid. Why?
Otherwise always traded on a lower multiple.
FPH always traded on high multiples so no re-rating.

Have people just decided they would rather own MFT than cash? I once heard that about google. Better to own google than cash- something like that.
Or is this an overseas index thing or something?

Any global crisis is good for transport, always buy MFT and similar when things look gloomy. After any crisis fuel will be cheap and the need for good reliable transport will be high. Smart investors know that :):

Add to that the current issues in the global shipping industry - any good moving company is currently able to demand nice premiums to its rates ... this is great for the margins! Just a winning streak for Mainfreight ...

[101nick101]

Why ? have you held it long ? My first purchase was in 2009 at $ 4.25 if I remember correctly. Have added every now and then and stupidly sold a few in the first 5-6 years. Stopped that long ago and just let them run and add a few infrequently.

Bought in around the $75 mark, chalk it up to being young and beautiful. Lesson learned.

[iceman]

Bought in around the $75 mark, chalk it up to being young and beautiful. Lesson learned.

Quite to the contrary mate. Well done and great to see young people having a go and trying to learn. I think one of the best advice I ever got on my investment journey was to “sell your dogs & let your winners run”. MFT has a long winning history.
DYOR. Good luck

[alokdhir]

What a wonderful stock this is ? Going thru real purple patch ... Just keeps on giving ...:t_up:

[Sideshow Bob]

What a wonderful stock this is ? Going thru real purple patch ... Just keeps on giving ...:t_up:

Up over $4 today....Wowsers!!

Always seems to be one of those stocks that are too expensive, but like you say keeps on giving.....!!

[alokdhir]

Up over $4 today....Wowsers!!

Always seems to be one of those stocks that are too expensive, but like you say keeps on giving.....!!

Up over $ 6 now ...just cant believe ...maybe cheaper fuel helps increase margins !!!

[Sideshow Bob]

Up over $ 6 now ...just cant believe ...maybe cheaper fuel helps increase margins !!!

There is probably an element of that, but they do have a FAF (Fuel Adjustment Factor) built into their pricing - so goes up and down with fuel pricing.

This is a bit of an old one, but as they say, there is some transperancy.

12871

[winner69]

Mark Lister from Craig’s said

Today’s move is on the back of it being added to an important index, rather than any new operational news, but it’s still a great NZ business.

[winner69]

Just a reminder

High share prices don’t necessary mean bad value

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-plenty-times/news/mark-lister-high-share-prices-dont-necessarily-mean-bad-value/KNYELEJRTUTRFBMXW6LMLRNTGM/


These companies, as well as the others mentioned at the beginning of this column, have been some of the strongest performers on the local market for years, if not decades. Maybe the best shares are in fact the ones that sometimes look the most expensive (on the face of it).

[101nick101]

Yikes was planning to buy back in but at these prices I'd rather buy Apple :p

[dobby41]

Yikes was planning to buy back in but at these prices I'd rather buy Apple :p

Based on price or value?

[101nick101]

Based on price or value?

Yes........................

[winner69]

Mark Lister from Craig’s said

Today’s move is on the back of it being added to an important index, rather than any new operational news, but it’s still a great NZ business.

Funds need to buy $150m of stock to match index

Possibly only $10m/$15m bought yesterday

100 bucks here we come

[alokdhir]

Funds need to buy $150m of stock to match index

Possibly only $10m/$15m bought yesterday

100 bucks here we come

Better to play it thru KFL now ...as its still not reacted to MFT jump from 82 to 92 or more plus FPH jump from 31 to 34 ....they have 21% and 16% respectively ...Only caveat is its premium to NAV needs remain same as before ...then it can jump 7-8 cents before divvy ex date of 8th Sept ....IMHO

PS : Yesterday's volume was 236K @ 90.50

[Biscuit]

Funds need to buy $150m of stock to match index......

Ha, now that's a virtuous cycle: the share price goes up so the funds have to buy more so the share price goes up....!

[alokdhir]

Funds need to buy $150m of stock to match index

Possibly only $10m/$15m bought yesterday

100 bucks here we come

Seems fund brought the price up to $ 90 in a jiffy and now trying to accumulate at these levels as they maybe thinking its enough of jump to tempt many to sell .

Lets c they need do another jump of 5% or so to get the needful :cool:

[Biscuit]

Better to play it thru KFL now ...as its still not reacted to MFT jump from 82 to 92 or more plus FPH jump from 31 to 34 ....they have 21% and 16% respectively ...Only caveat is its premium to NAV needs remain same as before ...then it can jump 7-8 cents before divvy ex date of 8th Sept ....IMHO

PS : Yesterday's volume was 236K @ 90.50

I still don't get the attraction of KFL. Are they that good at managing money to justify the premium to NAV and the annual fees? Given that the content of their portfolio is publicly available and they have the investment disadvantages of a large fund, anyone interested in investment should be able to outperform them reasonably easily?

[alokdhir]

I still don't get the attraction of KFL. Are they that good at managing money to justify the premium to NAV and the annual fees? Given that the content of their portfolio is publicly available and they have the investment disadvantages of a large fund, anyone interested in investment should be able to outperform them reasonably easily?

They have a big advantage of Tax benefit especially for high earners ....If u invest directly ...U pay 33% on dividends for incomes below 180K and 39% for over 180K ...where as for KFL its flat and final 28% ( already deducted ) with no other requirements of filing or account keeping etc

Plus they pay dividends quarterly suits regular income payers

Also they have been beating NZX 50 regularly with excellent picks and weightages

Clarity of tax status of KFL returns makes it super attractive to retired people

Also Public access to their current portfolio in detail is limited to quarterly disclosures ...much can happen in a quarter if u want to DIY based on their last quarterly report

Works very well for many many ...thats why the premium ...which is only recent from last Nov . ...maybe due to term deposits etc switching into them for regular income for their ease and convenience

PS : Also capital gains for funds are clearly tax exempt while for individuals its taxable if trading . So KFL can pass on capital returns tax free as part of quarterly dividends

[SPC]

Sums it up well. Also unlike individual investors the fund managers regularly visit these companies, talk to the CEO, sniff around out the back like a nosey beagle and talk to their customers and competitors. So although they don't gleen any info not released to the market they form a view of how the company is traveling and review their investment according. Try ringing the CEO or CFO yourself..don't think so.
All works well for me. And many others.

[Biscuit]

They have a big advantage of Tax benefit especially for high earners ....If u invest directly ...U pay 33% on dividends for incomes below 180K and 39% for over 180K ...where as for KFL its flat and final 28% ( already deducted ) with no other requirements of filing or account keeping etc

Plus they pay dividends quarterly suits regular income payers

Also they have been beating NZX 50 regularly with excellent picks and weightages

Clarity of tax status of KFL returns makes it super attractive to retired people

Also Public access to their current portfolio in detail is limited to quarterly disclosures ...much can happen in a quarter if u want to DIY based on their last quarterly report

Works very well for many many ...thats why the premium ...which is only recent from last Nov . ...maybe due to term deposits etc switching into them for regular income for their ease and convenience

PS : Also capital gains for funds are clearly tax exempt while for individuals its taxable if trading . So KFL can pass on capital returns tax free as part of quarterly dividends

Ok, I can see there is some advantages for some people. I cant see any advantage for me - there is no way I could do my tax returns without an accountant.

[alokdhir]

Ok, I can see there is some advantages for some people. I cant see any advantage for me - there is no way I could do my tax returns without an accountant.

If u have KFL additional then your account need not even know about it ...as all KFL income can be opted out of IR3 ...this is also an advantage for some as it hides their investments from public eyes ...in this dangerous world :D

[SPC]

You wouldn't need an accountant of all your income comes from pies. Unless you had a use for the imputation credits.
My accountant eventually told me he wasn't needed anymore as there was no tax return required.
Just a DIY 5min self assessment each year.

[iceman]

We end another stunning week, up +10% with MFT due to enter the FTSE mid-cap index. Outstanding. Many chuckled back in February when Forsyth Barr suggested MFT may hit $100 by year end, after having doubled in the previous 2 years. Not so outrageous anymore.

[Biscuit]

You wouldn't need an accountant of all your income comes from pies. Unless you had a use for the imputation credits.
My accountant eventually told me he wasn't needed anymore as there was no tax return required.
Just a DIY 5min self assessment each year.

Lucky you, my accountant is also a trustee and only he knows where all the bodies are buried.

[BlackPeter]

We end another stunning week, up +10% with MFT due to enter the FTSE mid-cap index. Outstanding. Many chuckled back in February when Forsyth Barr suggested MFT may hit $100 by year end, after having doubled in the previous 2 years. Not so outrageous anymore.

True - amazing ascent. Just wondering though, whether they will do to us what some of the Gentailers did after the foreign funds had their feed?

[alokdhir]

True - amazing ascent. Just wondering though, whether they will do to us what some of the Gentailers did after the foreign funds had their feed?

Me was also thinking the same ...maybe reduce some weightage on every uptick and switch to FPH or some other safer bet !!!

[Swala]

Anybody else at the moment trying to get the sale price up with the strong buying activity with a view to buying back later when things settle down?

[dobby41]

Jarden censured, fined $40,000, for breaching NZX rules on Mainfreight share trades
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126222020/jarden-censured-fined-40000-for-breaching-nzx-rules-on-mainfreight-share-trades

[alokdhir]

With MFT so far north of its long term averages ...its looking over priced at the moment . I am beginning to become uncomfortable technically . Its away at maximum levels from 400 SMA / EMA since it started trading ...well north of sustainable levels . I know times are good and all news flow is positive ...but it has to slow down soon as its not sustainable . Time to reduce positions and switch to FPH ...more close to comfortable levels . IMHO

[ThaiJohn]

Trading halt.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/378366

[alokdhir]

Trading update is FANTASTIC !!!!

[Snow Leopard]

Trading update is FANTASTIC !!!!

Better than that:

It is SATISFACTORY.


You gotta learn the Mainfreight lingo man :cool:

[alokdhir]

Better than that:

It is SATISFACTORY.


You gotta learn the Mainfreight lingo man :cool:

:t_up::D:p

[ThaiJohn]

Imagine if Matthew Hill/NTL announced a similar scenario.
I'll get my coat.:p

[maclir]

Slightly surreal if this hits $100 today. I'm trying to figure out how much is down to the weird state of shipping in the Covid world. Revenue for Air & Ocean segment of the business up 72% on comparable period last year, and PBT up 196%.

Disclose: Happy holder.

[iceman]

With MFT so far north of its long term averages ...its looking over priced at the moment . I am beginning to become uncomfortable technically . Its away at maximum levels from 400 SMA / EMA since it started trading ...well north of sustainable levels . I know times are good and all news flow is positive ...but it has to slow down soon as its not sustainable . Time to reduce positions and switch to FPH ...more close to comfortable levels . IMHO

Are you still thinking about selling ? I don’t think there’s any reason to atm. Can’t think of a better industry to be in right now

[iceman]

Just read the full update. Lost for words really. Revenue in Americas up 73% and Asia up 177%. Profit almost doubled from same period last year. Wow

[Muse]

Gotta love MFT. How much of its business model is coat plus margin? Might be fun when costs going up but hurt when/if costs fall in a year or two

[Bjauck]

Better than that:

It is SATISFACTORY.


You gotta learn the Mainfreight lingo man :cool: They just get on with things without the unjustified overblown rhetoric of some other companies.

[macduffy]

Tremendous numbers! Note however, that revenue increases, huge that they are, don't keep pace with business volume increases.

I hold.

[porkandpuha]

Tremendous numbers! Note however, that revenue increases, huge that they are, don't keep pace with business volume increases.

I hold.

The revenue numbers will be closely linked to inflated air and sea rates.

[alokdhir]

Are you still thinking about selling ? I don’t think there’s any reason to atm. Can’t think of a better industry to be in right now

I already started reducing my weightage from $ 90 onwards ...down to 21% now from 25% ...switching to FPH at the moment ...then maybe to NZG for locking gains

PS : Need to keep my discipline , not getting carried away . Remember FPH was $ 38 last August almost 80% above long term averages ...its still consolidating . Now MFT is at same mark !!!

[voltage]

With FPH these 2 stocks must be the best growth stocks on the NZX.

[nztx]

They just get on with things without the unjustified overblown rhetoric of some other companies.

Yes precise, timely .. no additional explanation needed

Monthly accounts - these guys could show a fair number of others how it's done properly :)

[alokdhir]

Yes precise, timely .. no additional explanation needed

Monthly accounts - these guys could show a fair number of others how it's done properly :)

How u think they reached here ? Successful people dont do different things ...they do same things differently ...lol

But IMHO its bullish sentiment is extreme technically ...me very cautious on my holdings atm

[porkandpuha]

Jarden report out today. New target price for them $97

[winner69]

Don Braid sounds grumpy

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/450657/decision-to-test-essential-workers-crossing-auckland-s-border-described-as-ludicrous

[iceman]

Don Braid sounds grumpy

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/450657/decision-to-test-essential-workers-crossing-auckland-s-border-described-as-ludicrous

Not surprising. The industry was warning about the lack of consultation and planning on how to deal with traffic through the "border" days ago and didn't even receive a response from the MOT or MOH. Once again, the authorities have no experience in the real World and are woefully ill prepared. Lets make it so difficult for truckies to get through that we run short on supplies to supermarkets !

[Bjauck]

Not surprising. The industry was warning about the lack of consultation and planning on how to deal with traffic through the "border" days ago and didn't even receive a response from the MOT or MOH. Once again, the authorities have no experience in the real World and are woefully ill prepared. Lets make it so difficult for truckies to get through that we run short on supplies to supermarkets ! Move over, BREXIT - Auckland with even less preparation has suddenly been forced into a temporary AUXIT.

[mikelee]

Looking for new investment and have finally decided to go with MFT instead of ZEL. First time buying such a high valued stock so not looking to have a large holding to start with. Was going to revisit SPK, with its high dividend yield, but its SP hardly moves, so put my bet on MFT, which looks more promising for capital gain. :t_up:

[iceman]

Looking for new investment and have finally decided to go with MFT instead of ZEL. First time buying such a high valued stock so not looking to have a large holding to start with. Was going to revisit SPK, with its high dividend yield, but its SP hardly moves, so put my bet on MFT, which looks more promising for capital gain. :t_up:

Welcome aboard. Now sit back and relax :-)

[SPC]

For some reason 'Steel balls' comes to mind. Good luck with your investment.
Not holding directly ( but exposure via KFL)

[101nick101]

I'm out I prefer rockets to trucks anyways

[alokdhir]

Is MFT bidding its time to cross $ 100 or its given up to try another season ?

Normally MFT does not recede so much from its Highs ...But still hope is there till its over $ 90 maybe

[mikelee]

yeah, been dropping about $1 a day so I just keep averaging down :t_down: hopefully it's just profit taking by some punters
read about freight cost going up again this morning, so should be one of the strongest performing industry during the pandemic:)

[porkandpuha]

Is MFT bidding its time to cross $ 100 or its given up to try another season ?

Normally MFT does not recede so much from its Highs ...But still hope is there till its over $ 90 maybe

As a casual observer I suspect there is probably a great deal of resistance at $100. Particularly with a lot of the casual holders who see the number as more of a target than a number to value the company at. I reckon its likely to bobble around $90-$100 for a while until more investors come to terms with $100 being the new norm.

[macduffy]

The fuss over covid testing of freight transport drivers as they transit in and out of the Auckland zone probably isn't helping perception of the industry either.

[iceman]

The fuss over covid testing of freight transport drivers as they transit in and out of the Auckland zone probably isn't helping perception of the industry either.

Crazy that this is happening. The industry asked Government for consultation to prepare for this, weeks ago, but received no response.

[Jaa]

The fuss over covid testing of freight transport drivers as they transit in and out of the Auckland zone probably isn't helping perception of the industry either.

Surely this is an opportunity for a large, respected logistics company like Mainfreight to leave its competitors further in the dust by efficiently scheduling and handling the logistics of regular COVID testing. A vaccinated, regularly tested supply chain is a potential competitive advantage after all.

Fourth truck driver infectious with COVID-19 in Queensland (https://amp.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/fourth-truck-driver-infectious-with-covid-19-in-queensland-20210909-p58qcn.html?__twitter_impression=true)

Nestle warehouses in some countries require their workers to take a PCR test every week before a shift starts. This stuff is basic risk mitigation.

[dobby41]

The fuss over covid testing of freight transport drivers as they transit in and out of the Auckland zone probably isn't helping perception of the industry either.

You would think that they would understand that they have some responsibilities when being allowed to roam between the areas and just get on with it.